If you're impressed with the Vikings' 8-2 record don't be. Minnesota has a losing point spread record and has been outscored on the season.

The Vikings were exposed at home by the Cowboys, 40-3, last Sunday. Minnesota lost its best offensive lineman, left tackle Christian Darrisaw, in the second quarter of the game due to a concussion. The Cowboys recorded seven sacks on 30 Minnesota dropbacks.

The Patriots have a dominant defense, too, ranking No. 2 in giving up the fewest points per game at 16.9. New England ranks No. 2 to Dallas in sacks with 36. Matthew Judon leads the NFL with 13 sacks. Kirk Cousins lacks mobility. He's going to have trouble against New England's pressure, well-coached defense.

New England has a pair of good running backs and receiving depth. The Patriots produced nearly 300 yards of offense against a much superior Jets defense last week in cold weather. Now the Patriots are in a dome facing a banged-up Minnesota secondary.

Josh Allen and Co. won't have an easier defense to go against all season than Detroit. The Lions give up the most yards and points per game in the NFL. They also are likely to be minus their best defensive backfield player in cornerback Jeff Okudah, who is in concussion protocol. 

The Bills just played at Ford Field this past Sunday when their game was moved from Buffalo to Detroit. A fast track makes the Bills' up-tempo offense even more potent. 

The Lions have won three in a row beating the Giants, Bears and Packers. The Bills are a huge step up for them. Buffalo is overdue to play better after not producing an "A'' level game during the last four weeks since beating the Chiefs. 

Detroit hasn't won on Thanksgiving since 2016 when Jim Caldwell was its coach. Don't look for the Lions to end that streak here. 

The Chargers nearly upset the Chiefs back in Week 2. If it weren't for a 99-yard interception return for a touchdown, the Chargers just might have done it before losing, 27-24.

Fast forward nine weeks later. The Chiefs are the best team in the AFC. The Chargers are mediocre, heavily weakened by key injuries especially on offense where their best offensive lineman and two top wide receivers have been out.

This, along with a rib injury, has greatly reduced the effectiveness of Justin Herbert. He has just eight TD passes with five interceptions in his last seven games. Herbert doesn't have the weapons to keep up with sizzling Patrick Mahomes, who has emerged as the MVP frontrunner with 17 TD passes in his last six games. Kansas City is averaging an NFC-best 30 points per game.

The Chargers' five victories have been against the Raiders, Texans, Browns, Broncos in overtime and Falcons. Those teams are a combined 13-32-1.

The Chargers have little home field in the crowded LA sports market. They are 0-3 ATS during their past three home games with two of those defeats occurring to the Jaguars, 38-10, and 37-23 to the Seahawks.

The Bengals and Joe Burrow were extremely rusty opening week when they met the Steelers. The Bengals lost the turnover battle, 5-0. Yet it took the end of overtime for the Steelers to pull off a 3-point victory and only because Evan McPherson missed an extra point near the end of regulation and a chip shot field goal in overtime because the Bengals had lost their long snapper to an injury during the game.

Now the Bengals enter the rematch rested off their bye and in revenge mode.

Burrow has gotten better pass protection since that Week 1 matchup. The result is Cincinnati is 5-2 in its last seven games.

Ja'Marr Chase remains out. Burrow still, though, has enough weapons and the Bengals get back stud defensive lineman D.J. Reader, who has been out since Week 3 with a knee injury. He's the Bengals' top run defender. That's huge because rookie Kenny Pickett needs a ground game to set up his passing.

Pickett is an overmatched rookie, who has a 2-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio and been sacked way too many times.

Here are three major reasons why I like the Rams here: 1. Coaching mismatch. Sean McVay versus Dennis Allen, who isn't qualified to be a head coach. 2. Quarterback mismatch. Matthew Stafford is miles ahead of Andy Dalton even without Cooper Kupp. 3. Aaron Donald getting to play Godzilla against a battered Saints offensive line likely to be without three starters. 

The Saints are 1-4 in their last five games. Their defense is down their best cornerback, Marshon Lattimore, their top pass rusher, Cameron Jordan, and their most active linebacker, Pete Werner. 

The Rams have a battered offensive line, too. But McVay is sharp enough to effectively game plan having Stafford to take advantage of the Saints' key injuries. 

The Saints continue to trot out Dalton, who always has been mistake-prone but is even worse now that he's on the downside of his career. New Orleans has the worst turnover differential in the NFL at minus 12. 

The Titans have been winning ugly all season. It catches up to them here traveling on a short week with multiple defensive injuries facing a rejuvenated Packers team that saved their season by coming from two touchdowns behind in the fourth quarter to upset the Cowboys this past Sunday.

This is a huge game for Green Bay. The Packers can't take a loss here with their next game against the Eagles in Philadelphia. The Titans can be excused if they don't match the Packers' intensity. The Titans have a two-game lead in the very weak AFC South Division.

The timing of this road Thursday game is very bad for Tennessee. The Titans are one of the most banged-up teams in the NFL right now especially on defense. They were outplayed but managed to beat the bumbling Broncos this past Sunday despite missing five defensive starters, including star tackle Jeffery Simmons and big-play linebacker Bud Dupree. The Titans then suffered three more defensive injuries against Denver.

The Packers blew out the Titans, 40-14, at home two seasons ago when the teams last met.

The 49ers are at full strength on offense for the first time this season. Jimmy Garoppolo doesn't have to be Joe Montana with Kyle Shanahan calling plays and backed by elite weapons Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Kyle Juszczyk. 

The Chargers rank 30th in scoring defense allowing 25.8 points a game. 

Fresh off their bye, the 49ers also are healthier on defense, too. This doesn't bode well for the Chargers, who remain extremely banged-up offensively.

Justin Herbert has become just a glorified game manager minus his star left tackle and without his two best wide receivers, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Herbert has not completed a pass longer than 20 yards during his last three games. He's also gone four consecutive games without reaching the 300-yard passing mark. 

The Chargers haven't defeated a good team yet. Their victories have been against the Raiders, Texans, Browns, Broncos in overtime and Falcons with three of those wins

The Raiders have been on the road in their last two games and those two losses - getting shut out by the Saints and blowing a 17-0 lead to the Jaguars - have put enormous heat on Josh McDaniels and the entire Las Vegas franchise. 

But remember the last time the Raiders were home, they rolled past the Texans, 38-30. Houston is the worst team in the AFC. The Colts are at Houston Texans' level now. So against the worst at home, the Raiders should be trusted. 

The Raiders actually were a playoff team last season. They've blown three 17-point advantages. If they would have held on in those games their record would be 5-3 and we would be talking about a much higher point spread here. 

Nearly all of this handicap, however, is a fade on the Colts. You have to wonder if Colts owner Jim Irsay has gone on tilt, or made the decision to tank. Jeff Saturday, who has never been a coach on any level, inherits an offense that ranks last in scoring at 14.7, 30th in yards per play and 30th in rushing. The Colts have committed a league-high 17 turnovers. 

Bill Walsh would have trouble coaxing points out of this Colts offense, which has a stiff at quarterback in Sam Ehlinger, behind an offensive line that has deeply regressed. Jonathan Taylor is hobbled by an ankle injury. The play-calling falls upon Parks Frazier, who like Saturday, is totally inexperienced in this capacity. 

The Raiders aren't good defensively. They don't have to be against this foe. 

Davante Adams had a big first half last week. McDaniels knows enough offense to realize the Raiders just need to keep feeding Adams and run Josh Jacobs to take care of the Colts, who are without their best big-play defender, injured Shaquile Leonard. 
Las Vegas is in must-win mode now, trailing the Chiefs by four games in the AFC West Division. 

I'm taking the Broncos even anticipating Ryan Tannehill will be back for the Titans. It's a huge bonus if Malik Willis has to start a third straight game. Willis is averaging 67.5 yards passing on 11 completions in his two games mainly throwing dump-off passes. He can't connect with anyone downfield. The Titans haven't been very good passing with Tannehill either.

Tennessee hasn't reached 260 yards of total offense in five of its eight games. The Titans are totally dependent on Derrick Henry. This isn't lost on the Broncos, who even without traded Bradley Chubb have a well above average defense giving up 16.5 points a game, which is No. 2 in the NFL in scoring defense.

The Broncos have finally shown a little life offensively. Denver was on a bye last week giving Russell Wilson additional time to heal and get more in sync with his new team. While the Broncos were resting, the Titans took the Chiefs to overtime last Sunday night. Tennessee's defense was on the field for 91 plays in that loss.

The Titans are going to be missing their best defensive front-seven player, Jeffery Simmons, along with linebackers Bud Dupree and Zach Cunningham.

Tennessee already is sailing toward the AFC South Division title. The Titans have no competition in their weak division. This game means far more to the Broncos. So Denver should have its intensity while the Titans have a fatigue factor working against them.

The Bills don't need Josh Allen to beat the Vikings, who are a bogus 7-1. Only one of Minnesota's wins has been against a winning team with six of its victories occurring in one-score games. The Vikings have a losing ATS mark. The one time the Vikings had a step-up game, they lost 24-7 to the Eagles.

Already the Vikings have built up an insurmountable five-game lead in the loss column in their NFC North Division. I doubt the Vikings get as motivated for this game as the Bills will at home off a terrible loss to the Jets.

I want Buffalo in this spot and I'm fine with Case Keenum, who is one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league and is surrounded by weapons in the Bills' high octane offensive attack. Keenum is experienced and proficient in Buffalo's spread type offense. I don't see the Bills, with their aggressive nature, dialing things back.

Not only is the spot bad for the Vikings catching the Bills off a division loss, but the setting isn't good either for Minnesota. The Vikings are a dome team traveling into Buffalo in mid-November with the forecast calling for possible snow showers and wind in the 10-20 mph range.

The Carolina Panthers are the worst team in the NFC. So it's a no-brainer for me to lay less than a field goal against them especially when the Panthers are going to start P.J. Walker at quarterback. 

Walker's 317-yard passing performance against the Falcons two weeks ago was an outlier. Walker's ability is far closer to the 3-of-10 passing for nine yards and two interceptions he had against the Bengals last Sunday. The Falcons rank last in pass defense. Walker won't be able to exploit that.

I'm not a fan of Baker Mayfield. But at least he's a legitimate NFL starting quarterback, albeit a lower class one. Walker isn't. Even a fresh Sam Darnold would be a better choice than Walker in attacking such a vulnerable secondary. 

The Falcons aren't very good either. But they do run the ball well with Cordarrelle Patterson, Tyler Allgeier, Caleb Huntley and Marcus Mariota, who is more of a rushing threat than a passer. The Bengals gashed the Panthers on the ground for 241 yards, averaging 6.2 yards on 39 runs. If you can't stop the run, you're going to have trouble with Atlanta. 

Not only did the Panthers trade their best offensive chip, Christian McCaffrey, but they have injuries to three of their key defenders: pass rushing star Brian Burns, underrated lineman Derrick Brown and safety Jeremy Chinn. I'm expecting Burns and Brown to play - it's a bonus if they don't - but the Panthers still are going to have problems stopping the Falcons' ground game. Carolina has surrendered 79 points during the last two weeks. 

The fallout in Carolina from its one-sided loss to Cincinnati is more coaching turnover. Interim coach Steve Wilks fired two defensive coaches, Paul Pasqualoni and Evan Cooper. The Panthers are a rudderless team right now. They don't have the quarterbacking, nor run defense, to beat the Falcons even at home on a Thursday night. 

The buy sign is on for the Monday night home underdog Saints following their best game of the season, a 24-0 home win against the Raiders last Sunday. The Saints held the sometimes potent Raiders to 183 yards of offense.

A key for the Saints is an improved ground attack spearheaded by Alvin Kamara that is averaging 171 yards rushing in their last four games.

The Ravens have been favored in three of their last four games and failed to cover each of those times.

Baltimore shored up its defense trading for Roquan Smith. However, the Ravens are down their two best receivers with tight end Mark Andrews and wideout Rashod Bateman both out. It' not likely Gus Edwards is going to play either.

I'm going to lay this dead number anticipating Ryan Tannehill will be back this week. Even if Tannehill is under center, I don't see the Titans staying within two touchdowns of the Chiefs. It's a huge bonus if Malik Willis has to start a second straight game because he's nowhere near being ready as an NFL starting quarterback.

The Titans were able to get away with Willis last week because they could totally rely on Derrick Henry against the Texans, who have the worst run defense by far in the NFL.

Kansas City has the No. 3 rush defense in the NFL. The Chiefs will be loading the box to stop Henry. The Chiefs have had two weeks to prepare having been idle last week. No coach is better off a bye than Andy Reid, who is 19-3 during the regular season after being off the week before.

The Chiefs won't lack incentive. The Titans embarrassed them, 27-3, in Tennessee last year.

The Titans don't have the makeup to play from behind because their wide receiving group is so weak.

The Packers aren't finished yet. Lose here to the 1-6 Lions, though, and they are done. I don't see it happening.

Aaron Rodgers gets to face the worst defense in the league. The Lions give up the most points and yards per game. 

Green Bay's defense is capable of playing far better, especially against the run. The Lions hoisted up the white flag when they dealt away tight end T.J. Hockenson. Their best skill position player, D'Andre Swift, isn't physically right slowed by an ankle injury. 

Dan Campbell is a likely lame duck coach. He's compounded his team's serious defensive woes with terrible on-field coaching decisions. He could be the worst in-game coach in the NFC. 

This is a buy low opportunity on the Bengals, who looked terrible this past Monday night scoring just 13 points against the Browns and losing by 19 points. 

The Bengals don't have Ja'Marr Chase. The Panthers don't have Christian McCaffrey and Robbie Anderson. They also don't have a lot of incentive either with a 2-6 record and in rebuild mode. 

Cincinnati buried the Falcons, 35-17, two weeks ago. The Panthers lost to the Falcons this past Sunday ending any crazy dream for them of competing in their bogus NFC South Division. 

Joe Burrow doesn't need Chase to bury the Panthers. Burrow has completed nearly 70 percent of his passes, leads the NFL in passing yards and has 17 TD passes. He still has three high quality receiving targets in Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Hayden Hurst. 

Carolina's pop gun attack operated by P.J. Walker isn't going to be able to keep up. 

The Bengals want to redeem themselves after Monday's embarrassment. This is a kill spot for them at home. The line is reasonable enough to get involved. 

I don't know why there is so much respect for the Browns in this matchup. They are not a good team. I'm not buying into the home division 'dog on Monday night, nor the Ja'Marr Chase injury as reasons not to back the Bengals.

Yes, Chase is a top-five receiver. But the Bengals are deep at wide receiver and the Browns have it worse in the injury department. Out for Cleveland is its top cornerback Denzel Ward, elite guard Wyatt Teller and emerging tight end David Njoku, who had become QB Jacoby Brissett's favorite target.

The Bengals' offensive line has gotten better. Joe Burrow has taken advantage of that to throw for 1,560 yards with 12 touchdowns and just one interception during Cincinnati's last five games. The Bengals have won four of those contests.

Cleveland, by contrast, has lost four in a row. Brissett is a career backup. Cleveland relies on Nick Chubb and an excellent ground attack. That's needed to make up for an anemic downfield passing attack.

The Bengals are the more balanced team with Joe Mixon on the ground and Burrow still having two excellent wide receiving targets, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd.

Cincinnati has covered eight of its past nine road games. The Bengals also have covered seven of the past eight times when playing in Cleveland.

Expect a close game here. That's usually the case with Minnesota. Of the Vikings' last 12 victories, 10 have been one possession results. 
The Cardinals are getting better offensively. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins from suspension is huge for them and Kyler Murray. 

Minnesota's 5-1 record comes with warts. The Vikings are 2-4 ATS, including 0-3 when laying more than a field goal. They have outscored their foes by just 21 points. 

The Cardinals have the speed to take advantage of the Vikings' slow cornerbacks. Minnesota ranks 27th in total defense and 28th in pass defense. 
Arizona has played better on the road than at home the past couple of years going 10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS during its last 12 regular-season away games. 

Bill Belichick has faced many difficult challenges in his 23 years as head coach of the Patriots. Devising a defensive game plan to stop Justin Fields is not one of them.

The Bears have the worst passing offense in the NFL. Fields is more dangerous as a runner than a passer. He hangs on to the ball way too long. That's one reason why he has  been sacked once in every five passing attempts. That's how bad it is. 

Chicago needs to run the ball well to have a chance. That doesn't figure to happen. The Patriots are extremely well-coached defensively. They just held Nick Chubb to a season-low 56 yards on the ground and the Browns to more than 100 yards below their rushing average last week. The Bears don't have a runner near the caliber of Chubb. 

The Patriots are likely to get back starting QB Mac Jones along with Damien Harris. The run-oriented Patriots should grind down the Bears, who rank 29th in run defense. 

The dysfunctional Panthers draw Tampa Bay at a bad time. Todd Bowles just ripped his Buccaneers after they were upset, 20-18, by the Steelers this past Sunday. So zero chance of the Buccaneers taking the Panthers lightly.

An elite Tampa Bay defense should have little trouble stopping a Panthers attack that doesn't have a legitimate starting NFL-caliber quarterback. Take away three defensive touchdowns and the Panthers would be averaging 13.6 points per game, which would be the lowest in the league.

Carolina's money-burning ways have continued from last season. The Panthers are 1-13 SU and ATS in their last 14 games. They have lost their last three games all by double-digits.

This is an easy get-right game for the Buccaneers.

(Note that I released this game early in the week before the Panthers traded Christian McCaffrey. So the line has gone up. I still like the Buccaneers to absolutely bury the Panthers by more than two touchdowns so while much of the line value is gone the handicap still holds up.)

Given the quality of Denver's defense and injuries to several of their own key players, including top pass rusher Joey Bosa and wide receiver Keenan Allen, I believe the Chargers are priced too high so I'll be on the underdog Broncos.

Denver entered Week 6 allowing the second-fewest yards per pass attempt, second-fewest TD passes and had the fifth-most sacks.

Russell Wilson no longer is his prime. But he still knows how to win and is capable of playing much better as he makes the transition from Seattle to Denver. He faces a Chargers defense that ranks 31st in scoring defense giving up 27.2 points a game and 6.2 yards per run. Melvin Gordon and Mike Boone are solid enough backs to take advantage of the Chargers' weak run defense, which in turn sets up Wilson to effectively pick his spots.

I'm not expecting Dak Prescott to play in this game. But that shouldn't matter. The Cowboys can upset the Eagles straight-up based on their tremendous defense, the Eagles being banged-up on their offensive line and the quiet efficiency of Cooper Rush.

Dan Quinn would be my candidate as the top defensive coordinator in the NFL this season. Dallas has held each of its first five opponents to fewer than 20 points. The Cowboys have held their last four opponents - Bengals, Giants, Commanders and Rams - to an average of 13.2 points. The Cowboys have the second-most sacks in the league. The Eagles could be down three offensive line starters due to injuries. Micah Parsons is becoming a dominant defensive force.

I think Jalen Hurts is a better fantasy quarterback than real one. Let's see how he fares against an elite defense behind a beat-up offensive line. I question his downfield accuracy.

Rush isn't fancy. He can't run like Hurts. All Rush does is win. The Cowboys are 4-0 SU and ATS in Rush's starts because he smartly plays within himself knowing he has skill position talent around with CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, the most elusive of any of the Cowboys.

The Cowboys have won and covered during their past three games against the Eagles. They beat the Eagles by a combined margin of 45 points in the two games last season. Dallas also has covered in 10 of its past 11 road games.

Rejoice time stops here for the Jets. While New York was celebrating beating the Dolphins and their third-string rookie quarterback this past Sunday, the Packers were on their way home from London in humbling fashion after blowing a double-digit lead against the inferior Giants.

Aaron Rodgers has a chip on his shoulder the size of his ego. I like Rodgers that way. The Packers are 9-0 SU and ATS following a loss with all but one of those victories coming by at least 10 points. How did Rodgers fare in these nine games? Try a 24-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

The Jets are fat and happy having stopped a 12-game division losing streak. They are 3-2 with a miracle win against the less-than-bright Browns, another come from behind victory against the 1-4 Steelers and receiving an early Christmas gift of drawing an unprepared and ill-equipped Skylar Thompson when Teddy Bridgewater was knocked out early in the Dolphins game.

Yeah the Jets are improved. They have some promising young players. But don't get carried away. The underachieving Packers are still at least two - if not three - levels higher than the Jets and are playing at home in circle-the-wagons mode. Green Bay is 15-0 SU, 11-4 ATS during its last 15 home games.

Matchup-wise, the Packers can run on the Jets with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. If the Jets load the box - which I expect them to do - Rodgers has enough reliable pass catching targets and MVP ability left to burn the Jets.

Green Bay is healthy on defense. They have the pass rushers with Rashaun Gary, Kenny Clark and Preston Smith to take advantage of the Jets' vulnerable offensive tackle situation, which is a fourth-string option at left tackle and a second-stringer at right tackle. Zach Wilson has yet to impress me. He's made 15 NFL starts. He's committed 14 turnovers and been sacked 47 times.

I don't expect the Packers to be flat, or to be bothered by jet lag. The Saints and Vikings played in London two weeks ago. Both won last week without the benefit of taking their bye week.

This is your classic buy low spot on the Packers.

After starting slow against the Steelers and Cowboys, the Bengals have gotten back on track rolling past the Jets and Dolphins. 

The Ravens have yet to get on track. Something isn't right with them. They've blown 21 and 17-point leads at home to the Dolphins and Bills. Baltimore is down to its third-string offensive left tackle and its defense has struggled under new coordinator Mike Macdonald. 

Cincinnati's offensive line has been sharper in protecting Joe Burrow during the past two weeks. During this span, Burrow has completed 65 percent of his passes with a 6-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Bengals own a huge wide receiving edge.

The Bengals gained a lot of confidence from whipping the Ravens twice last season, 41-17 and 41-21. 

The Bengals are on extra rest having played on Thursday during Week 4. They are 6-0 ATS as a road 'dog the past six times and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 AFC games. 

The Falcons are the last unbeaten point spread team in the NFL. They won't be after Sunday. I envision the Buccaneers putting together their first complete game of the season. If they do, the Falcons won't stand a chance.

Tampa Bay held the Cowboys, Saints and Packers to a combined 27 points. That's an average of nine points. The Buccaneers are going to be in an ornery mood after losing, 41-31, at home to the Chiefs. No weather distractions this week for the Buccaneers.

Take away Cordarrelle Patterson and the Falcons are the easiest offense the Buccaneers have faced so far. Marcus Mariota is averaging just 10 completed passes during his last two games. The Falcons lack the downfield passing attack to come from behind if a backdoor cover is needed. Kyle Pitts is the Falcons' top weapon - and he's underutilized.

Getting healthier on the offensive line and Mike Evans back from suspension was a big boost for Tampa Bay's offense last Sunday. The Buccaneers should be in better shape at wide receiver this week, too, giving Tom Brady more options. The Falcons rank 25th in scoring defense giving up 25.3 points and 25th in total defense allowing 386.3 yards per game.

This is the Buccaneers' get-right game.

The Saints return home from London in circle-the-wagons mode on a three-game losing streak. Andy Dalton is likely to start again, but Alvin Kamara is back to do the heavy lifting, which should ease Dalton's burden. 

The Seahawks have the second-worst defense in the league behind only the Lions. Kamara should be in line for a huge game against a Seattle defense yielding 5.4 yards per run and five all-purpose TD's. 

Geno Smith has played better than expected - so far. Keep in mind that his one superstar performance was against the Lions. The Seahawks were crushed when they stepped up in competition against the 49ers. Their other games were against the Broncos, Falcons and Lions.

New Orleans gives up the fifth-lowest completion rate and ranks in the top 10 in fewest yards per pass attempt. I see Smith returning to his game-manger, turnover-prone ways that have marked his career. 

The Seahawks blasted the Lions, 51-29, in Week 17 last season. Rashaad Penny rushed for 170 yards in that game.

Since then the Seahawks have gotten worse and the Lions have improved. Detroit's improvement has come on offense. Defensively the Lions remain inept. They are last in scoring defense surrendering 31 points a game and 29th in total defense. They only have two takeaways and just lost Tracy Walker for the season with an Achilles tendon injury. He was one of the Lions' few good players on defense and a team captain.

The Seahawks have enough playmakers around Geno Smith to produce points against such a weak defense. Seattle also has enough defense to keep this close - if not pull the upset - when you take away the Lions' two best skill position players plus their kicker. That's the case here. D'Andre Swift, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Austin Seibert are all out.

I like the Lions in an underdog role. But laying points is not something I want to do with Detroit especially when the team is minus the dynamic Swift and reliable go-to receiver St. Brown.

The good news for the Jets is Joe Flacco won't be under center anymore. The bad news is Zach Wilson will be. I don't understand Jets optimism about Wilson. He was horrendous as a rookie last season. One of the three-worst starting quarterbacks in the league.

Not only could Wilson be rusty making his 2022 debut, but the Jets have an injury-riddled, inexperienced offensive line. The Jets are down to fourth-string left tackle Conor McDermott to protect Wilson's blindside. New York's other starting offensive tackle is fourth-round rookie Max Mitchell. What good are intriguing skill position talents if you have an inaccurate quarterback behind a bad offensive line?

The Steelers won't have superstar T.J. Watt. But they have other decent pass rushers.

I give the Steelers a strong coaching edge with Mike Tomlin over Robert Saleh plus a situational advantage having extra preparation time from having played last Thursday. That extra time helped Minkah Fitzpatrick come out of concussion protocol. He's a difference maker on defense.

Mitch Trubisky has excellent receiving weapons and is playing a softer defense at home. This is Trubisky's best opportunity all season.

Following this game, the Steelers play the Bills, Buccaneers, Dolphins and Eagles with three of those games being on the road. So this is a very important win opportunity that Pittsburgh can't blow.

Timing means a lot in the NFL - and the timing sure isn't good for Miami in this Thursday night road game.

It's not just Tua Tagovailoa being questionable with back and ankle injuries.

The Dolphins still could be exhausted from their huge, 21-19, home win against the Bills this past Sunday. The game was played in Miami's scorching September humidity. Miami's defense was on the field for nearly 41 minutes as the Bills offense ran 89 plays.

The Bengals got back on track rolling past the Jets after close losses to the Steelers and Cowboys where they played well below their capabilities. Cincinnati's offensive line, expected to be much improved, gave up two sacks to the Jets after giving up 13 during the first two games.

I have no doubt the Colts will be up for this game. They have to be sitting 0-2. But Indy can't compete offensively with the Chiefs. 

Patrick Mahomes lost Tyreek Hill. But this loss has been more than offset with better receiving depth both at wide receiver and at running back along with an improved offensive line. Gus Bradley is the Colts' new defensive coordinator. He's an overrated defensive coordinator, whose style is a conservative Cover 3 defense. Mahomes picks apart this style of coverage. He's thrown for 966 yards with a 9-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio the past three times he's gone against a Bradley defense. 

Matt Ryan can't keep up with this. Ryan isn't Tom Brady. He's an old 37. Aside from Jonathan Taylor, Ryan has limited weaponry. He's looked terrible so far. Ryan's been sacked seven times, thrown four interceptions and fumbled five times in his two starts with Indy. 

The Chiefs are on an extra rest, too, having played their Week 2 game on a Thursday. Andy Reid is one of the best coaches with extra prep time. 

I've been very impressed with Jalen Hurts this season. But Carson Wentz hasn't been bad either. Wentz is tied for the TD passing lead with seven and ranks No. 2 in passing yards with 650. He's the Commanders' best quarterback in at least four years.

Washington has set Wentz up for success with a sturdy offensive line and four underrated receiving targets - Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Jahan Dotson and Logan Thomas.

The Commanders' defense isn't likely to reach their top-five status of 2020, but it should be better than last season.

But a big key here is the spot. The Eagles are off an impressive Monday night beatdown of the Vikings. Now they're traveling on a short week while laying a touchdown against a division rival.

Philadelphia is not a good road team either from a point spread perspective going 5-12 ATS in its past 17 away contests. The Eagles also have failed to cover in 14 of their last 18 September games. The underdog in this series is 3-0-1 ATS during the last four meetings.

The Bengals have yet to play well. Still, they could be 2-0. They lost to the Cowboys on a 50-yard field goal as time expired and nearly beat the Steelers in overtime despite a minus-5 turnover ratio. Neither the Cowboys, nor Steelers, are very good right now.

But the Jets are bottom tier. So not only are the Bengals stepping down in class, but the spot sets up well for them. Cincinnati already is in must-win mode at risk of falling 0-3. The Jets are in a rare fat-and-happy mood. They still might be riding Cloud 9 after their miracle comeback against the Browns last Sunday after being down 13 points with less than two minutes left. The last time a comeback like that was pulled off was 21 years ago.

Don't be fooled, though. Joe Flacco still is Joe Flacco. He's an immobile sloth who is washed-up.

The Super Bowl runner-up Bengals are at least two levels higher than the Jets. Joe Burrow should have the rust off now. Tee Higgins is expected to play joining superstar Ja'Marr Chase. Cincinnati's revamped offensive line is due to play much better against a weak Jets defense.

Points especially matter here. That's usually the case with a total Under 40.

I'll accept this many in this division matchup. The Steelers have flaws, yes. But the Browns can't be trusted - nor should they be - in this point spread range.

As bad as Mitch Trubisky is, I'll take him above Jacoby Brissett.

The Steelers are giving up 18.5 points per game, which includes an overtime period against the Bengals. The Browns rank 26th in defensive scoring allowing 27.5 points per game.

The short week may work against the Browns. They still could be reeling from blowing a 13-point lead with 1:55 left in a shocking, 31-30, home loss to the Jets this past Sunday.

Najee Harris is off to a slow start. Harris shredded the Browns for 279 rushing yards last season helping Pittsburgh defeat Cleveland twice. If Harris can get back on pace that would relieve pressure on Trubisky, who has much better receiving targets than Brissett has. Harris catches a break with Browns defensive end Jadeveon Clowney ruled out with an ankle injury.

The Steelers have covered five of the last six in the series. Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.

Mike Tomlin gets a strong checkmark in the coaching department against Kevin Stefanski. The Steelers have covered 63 percent of the time when getting points during the Tomlin era.

The Packers suffered a very frustrating loss to the Vikings opening week. Fortunately for them their favorite patsy is up next - the Bears. It's true Aaron Rodgers owns the Bears. Green Bay has defeated Chicago six consecutive times and 12 of the last 14 times at Lambeau Field.

Rodgers has accounted for 15 TD's in the Packers' last four games against Chicago with a 141.5 passer rating. Unlike past victories, though, the Packers will dominate the Bears in the trenches and with a strong 1-2 running/catching punch of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Rodgers should have Allen Lazard back as his No. 1 wide receiver. He'll also be looking to throw to reliable tight end Robert Tonyan, who he has excellent chemistry with.

Green Bay's defensive line is one of the best in the NFL. The Bears, on the other hand, may have the worst offensive line in the NFL. Chicago's inexperienced tackles Braxton Jones and Larry Borom are no match for Kenny Clark, emerging Rashan Gary and Preston Smith. This is the biggest mismatch between defensive line and offensive line in all of the Week 2 matchups.

The Bears' upset of the 49ers last week came because Justin Fields threw a 51-yard TD pass on a busted play when Chicago was trailing 10-0. That got the Bears going and ignited them. The 49ers were flat. Trey Lance is inexperienced. Rodgers is not. Rodgers has turned the ball over only once the last six times he's faced the Bears.

The Packers have won 13 straight regular-season home games. This isn't the playoffs, the Packers won't choke here.

Stop worrying about Trey Lance. He'll be fine playing at home without having to deal with a hostile Chicago crowd playing in monsoon-type conditions. He has a solid offensive line, an ace play-caller in Kyle Shanahan and a real weapon with versatile Deebo Samuel. It's an added bonus if George Kittle can play.

Instead fixate on Seattle's situation. The Seahawks are off a huge home Monday night upset win of Denver and Russell Wilson. Even playing their division rivals, the Seahawks are in a dreadful spot traveling on a short week following that emotional victory.

The Seahawks are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following a victory - and that was with Wilson. Now their quarterback is Geno Smith. One game doesn't change the fact that Smith is a game-manager with a propensity for turnovers.

Smith isn't helped playing behind one of the worst and most inexperienced offensive lines in the league. The 49ers hold a monster edge in the trenches with their defensive line. The Seahawks were able to protect their two rookie offensive tackles by throwing only 17 times against the Broncos. That's not likely to happen again. Nick Bosa is right there with Aaron Donald as the most disruptive defensive lineman in the NFC.

The 49ers are going to be up for this game after blowing a 10-0 lead against the Bears. They will play with urgency. San Francisco has covered its last four home contests.

Lance's task is made easier by the Seahawks losing their best defensive and most versatile player, safety Jamal Adams.

Yes, the Chiefs look great again. But the Chargers are right up with them as a double-digit win team with realistic Super Bowl aspirations. The Chargers traveling on a short week is mitigated by this being an early-season division game so the fatigue factor is lessened and the team has familiarity with the opponent.

The point spread should not be this high. It's partly due to an overreaction from the Chiefs smashing the Cardinals opening week. The Cardinals, though, are a bad and banged-up team right now.

The Chargers can match the Chiefs' talent level. Justin Herbert, like Patrick Mahomes, is a top-five quarterback. The Chargers have by far the best running back in Austin Ekeler and the better pass rush with Khalil Mack making an immediate impact last week in tandem with another premier pass rusher, Joey Bosa. Los Angeles also is strong in the defensive backfield and in the offensive line.

Really the Chargers' only weaknesses are stopping the run and special teams. But the Chiefs don't beat teams on the ground and it's their kicker, Harrison Butker, who is out.

The Chargers have fared well recently when playing in Kansas City going 3-0-1 ATS during their last four visits. The Chargers have won there each of the last two seasons. No shock at all if they make it three straight road victories against the Chiefs.

Huge motivation for both teams in this Monday night Russell Wilson Bowl. But the pressure is on Denver as road chalk. Expectations aren't nearly as high on the Seahawks.

Seattle has a strong home field advantage. The crowd will be up for this matchup. Wilson is several rungs higher than Geno Smith. But Smith has weapons with D.K. Metcalf. Tyler Lockett and Noah Fant. Rashad Penny is healthy so Smith has a ground attack to rely upon, too.

I find the Broncos to be overrated. Wilson is on the downside of his career. He's not quite as accurate as before and he's less of a danger to run. Wilson didn't get any timing down with his new team during preseason. So the Seahawks catch the Broncos at a good time.

The Seahawks are 19-8-1 ATS as a home underdog during the Pete Carroll era. The Seahawks have covered 16 of the last 23 times they've been a 'dog. Smith, for all the criticism, is 6-3 ATS as a home 'dog when starting.

The Colts have failed to cover in their last seven season-openers. Expect that streak to continue. Division underdogs in Week 1 traditionally fare well. That should be the case here especially given Indy's history. Going back to 2014, the Colts are 0-8 SU, 1-7 ATS opening week. This includes an 0-4 SU and ATS mark under Frank Reich.

Indy didn't look good during preseason. The Colts are making the transition to a new QB - Matt Ryan. And his best days are behind him. Ryan also has a below average wide receiving corps with Michael Pittman the only reliable wideout. The Colts also are minus a couple of key defensive pieces. Star linebacker Darius Leonard is hurt and Matt Eberflus, their ace defensive coordinator, is gone, taking over as the Bears' head coach.

The Texans aren't the worst team in the NFL. They actually are better than perceived on the offensive line, quarterback where Davis Mills flashed last season and at running back where promising Dameon Pierce has taken the No. 1 role. Pep Hamilton is one of the more underrated offensive coordinators. The Texans held their last four opponents to an average of 24 points, a below average figure but not disastrous. Houston went 3-0 in preseason while holding their opponents to an average of 11 points a game.

The Texans won't lack motivation in Love Smith's debut as their head coach. The Colts swept the Texans last season by a combined score of 62-3. Indy hadn't defeated the Texans by more than a touchdown during the previous six meetings before last year.

Later in the season this point spread will be considered a gift to the 49ers. I already consider it way off. The 49ers are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. The Bears have the worst talent in the league.

Trey Lance and Justin Fields are similar. Both are in their second NFL-season. Both have tremendous mobility and big arms. But Lance is surrounded by superior talent both offensively and defensively.

The Bears had a minus-96 point differential last season. They could be even worse this year. Fields is inexperienced and not accurate. But he's not even among the many major problems the Bears have, which include perhaps the worst offensive line in the league, multiple holes on defense and a well-below average pass receiving group.

Lance won't be asked to do too much because the 49ers should have no problem pounding the Bears on the ground thus setting up Lance to pick his passing spots. San Francisco was seventh in rushing last season. The Bears ranked in the bottom-10 in run defense.

Joe Burrow has elevated the Bengals. Cincinnati is going to be a serious playoff contender for years if Burrow stays in one piece. But this isn't Cincinnati's time. Kansas City is the elite team in the NFL and the Chiefs are peaking at the right time. They also are home.

The Bengals have too many holes, including a 26th-ranked secondary, to keep Patrick Mahomes and his bevy of weapons from scoring touchdowns. Mahomes has regained his status as the best QB in football. The Chiefs have scored at least 28 points in each of their last seven games. During their two playoff games against the Steelers and Bills, the Chiefs averaged 42 points and 515 yards.

The Bengals' defense isn't nearly at the level of Buffalo's top-ranked unit.

This puts tremendous pressure on Burrow to keep up with Mahomes. Burrow has the talent, poise and athleticism to do this. He doesn't have the offensive line, though. The Bengals surrendered nine sacks to the Titans yet still came away with a playoff victory last week because of Ryan Tannehill's three interceptions. Mahomes has committed one turnover during his last five games.

Until giving up 36 points to the Bills in last week's overtime shootout, the Chiefs had permitted the fewest points per game since Week 8 allowing 16.1 points.

Kansas City has won 10 of its last 11 games with the lone defeat occurring to the Bengals in Cincinnati. Kansas City is 9-2 at home this season with an average winning margin of 14.2 points.

I'm not going to step in against the Chiefs.

Do you really think the Rams can beat the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers at home traveling cross-country on a short week having just played this past Monday night?

I don't and I'm willing to lay a field goal to back that opinion.

Free of the Lions, Matthew Stafford picked up his first playoff victory knocking off a slumping Cardinals team that hadn't been good since late October. Tom Brady, by comparison, has 35 postseason victories. He's won 21 of his 25 home playoff games.

The Buccaneers are 7-1 ATS as home chalk. They are 8-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of 19.3 points. The Rams are 2-5 ATS versus above .500 opponents.

Brady doesn't have reliable Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown anymore. But he still has a deep wide receiving corps, a rejuvenated Rob Gronkowski and could be getting his two best running backs in Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones.

The Rams' defensive line has come on strong. Aaron Donald is a force. But they have holes in their secondary. Losing safety Jordan Fuller late in the season is a key injury. If the Rams have to trot out 38-year-old formerly retired Eric Weddle they're in trouble.

The Buccaneers' defense is back to being formidable with the return to health of linebackers Lavonte David, Shaquil Barrett and edge pass rusher Jason Pierre-Paul.

Nice season for the Bengals. But it ends in Nashville. The Titans have the right style, playoff experience and improved defense to beat the Bengals by more than a field goal.

Cincinnati ended up in a death struggle to get past the Raiders at home last week finishing that game down three defensive linemen. The Bengals definitely won't have defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi.

These current Bengals have never played in a postseason road game. Tennessee, 7-2 at home this season, is playoff-tested and rested having had a first-round bye. Mike Vrabel is 4-0 SU and ATS following a bye beating the closing point spread by an average of 19.1 points per game.

The extra time should allow Derrick Henry to make his return from a foot injury. Cincinnati has permitted 100 yards rushing in five of its past six games. The Titans averaged 29.1 points a game during Henry's last seven games before he was injured. Ryan Tannehill is a much better QB when defenses have to key on Henry.

The Titans' bruising, ball-control style keeps Joe Burrow off the field. But it's not just that. The Titans were one of the most improved defenses during the last 11 games giving up 17.5 points and 300.3 yards per game during this stretch. They have a number of underrated pass rushers and athletic linebackers. I doubt the Bengals' youthful offensive line will hold up at the line of scrimmage to the detriment of Burrow.

The Cardinals lost their edge with a late October Thursday night home loss to the Packers. They have yet to regain it and I don't see that changing in this matchup. 
Arizona is 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five games. The Cardinals' defense has been below par the second half of the season. Their secondary has given up 14 TD passes with just one interception during the last five games. 

Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp, who had a superstar season, can take advantage. Stafford threw for a career-high 41 TD passes in his first year with Rams offensive guru coach Sean McVay while Kupp led the NFL in receptions, receiving yards and receiving TD's, emerging as the top wide receiver in the NFL. Stafford had no problem in two games against the Cardinals this season, completing 69 percent for 567 yards and a 5-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 

The Rams are going to get their points here. I don't see the Cardinals keeping up. I give a huge plus to Aaron Donald and a Rams defense line that is peaking against an Arizona offensive line that has sprung leaks and doesn't have a quality healthy running back left. 

This puts tremendous pressure on Kyler Murray, who hasn't been the same dominant force he was earlier in the season before missing four games. Minus superstar wide receiver and security blanket DeAndre Hopkins, the Cardinals are far less dangerous through the air and in the red zone. Arizona's offense mainly consists of a bunch of 5-yard passes for Murray, which isn't going to get the job done. 

McVay is 5-1 against Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury. During these six meetings the Rams have held Murray in check. Murray's averaged 233.2 passing yards, 6.8 yards per attempt with eight all-purpose TD's and nine turnovers along with being sacked 18 times. 

I rate the Buccaneers two levels higher than the Eagles. Given home field advantage and having more playoff experience, the Buccaneers should win this game handily.

Tampa Bay won the Super Bowl last season. The Buccaneers could be even better this season. They set a franchise record with 13 victories. Tom Brady had one of his greatest seasons, which really says a lot given how many outstanding years he's had. Brady passed for 5,316 yards - third most in NFL history - and set a Tampa Bay record with 43 TD passes.

The Eagles are not battle tested. They've met only three teams at .500 or above since November and went 1-2 SU and ATS against them. The Eagles went 1-6 ATS on the season when they faced above .500 opponents. Nick Sirianni is in his first season as Eagles head coach. Second-year QB Jalen Hurts has never been in a playoff game. He also is dealing with an ankle injury.

Philadelphia led the NFL in rushing. But Tampa Bay has been one of the best run defenses for the past three seasons. Hurts is a better runner than thrower.

The Buccaneers built a 28-7 lead against the Eagles in their earlier matchup this season. The Eagles scored a couple of late TD's to make the final a respectable, but misleading 28-22. The game closed with Brady taking a knee inside the Eagles' 10-yard line.

The Eagles have been huge money-burners when getting points going 3-14 ATS the last 17 times as an underdog.

The stage and pressure is too much for the Raiders with a chance to reach the playoffs for only the second time in 19 years.

I give checkmarks to the Chargers in nearly every category with a major one at QB with Justin Herbert, who already has set a Chargers franchise record with 35 TD passes this season.

The Chargers' secondary is healthy for one of the rare times this season and underrated run-stuffer Justin Jones also has returned to the lineup.

Special teams have been a weakness for the Chargers. But that area was shored up in late October with the signings of kicker Dustin Hopkins and kick/punt returner Andre Roberts. Hopkins is 17-for-18 in field goals. Roberts leads the league in yards per kickoff return.

I find this line inflated because the Dolphins are out of playoff contention and the Patriots are off a 40-point victory against the Jaguars and are alive to win the AFC East.

The Dolphins, though, aren't going to roll over with a chance to finish above .500, beat their long-time division rival and have a number of players reach performance bonus incentives.

The Patriots won't win the division with a victory here if the Bills beat the Jets. The Patriots know the Bills aren't losing to the Jets.

Until giving up 34 points to the Titans last week on a short week and in a flat spot, Miam had held its previous seven opponents to an average of 11.7 points. Even in the loss to the Titans, the Dolphins held them to 308 total yards.

The Patriots don't have an explosive offense when going against a good defense. Bill Belichick doesn't have a good track record either when playing in Miami during December and January going 2-7 SU and ATS the past nine times. Playing in high 70-degree heat in January is not what the Patriots are used to.

This one is about mindset and numbers. The Cardinals are alive for the No. 2 seed in the playoffs. All it would take is for them to win here and for the Rams to lose to the 49ers for the sixth time in a row.

Arizona ranks in the top 11 in nearly all of the major statistical categories, including giving up the fifth-fewest points and being ranked eighth in total offense.

Seattle won't be making the postseason for only the second time in the last 10 seasons. The Seahawks have below average offensive numbers and rank 30th in total defense and 31st in pass defense. And this was padding their statistics with a 51-29 victory against the Lions last week.

The Seahawks could enter this matchup, which for them is meaningless, fat and happy following that victory lacking a killer instinct. Seattle isn't likely to have its best defensive player, middle linebacker Bobby Wagner. He suffered a knee sprain last week.

The Cardinals have played three tough opponents during their last four games having drawn the Rams, Colts and Cowboys. Seattle, on the other hand, got to go against the Texans, Bears and Lions during three of its past four matchups.

Arizona defeated the Seahawks, 23-13, at Seattle in Week 11 outgaining the Seahawks by 147 yards.

Aaron Rodgers is making a strong case to repeat as MVP throwing for 16 TD passes without an interception in his last five games. This includes a four-touchdown, 385-yard passing game against the Vikings. The Vikings pulled that game out, 34-31, as Kirk Cousins nearly matched Rodgers.

Now Cousins is out due to COVID. The line has skyrocketed because of that to where the Packers are laying two TD's instead of one. 

Minnesota has played close games every week. But that was with Cousins. The Vikings aren't going to be able to keep up with Rodgers now that Sean Mannion will be their quarterback. Minnesota also is without its second best receiver, Adam Thielen. 

The Vikings' defense has been disappointing a second straight season giving up 30.4 points in their last five games. The revenge-minded Packers are going to put up their share of points here. 

I consider Mannion a stiff. I don't see him being able to elevate the Vikings, who have morale issues because of Cousins. Mike Zimmer has lost much of his luster, too. He could be on the way out. 

The Colts have thrived because of turnovers and the running of Jonathan Taylor, who has emerged as a superstar leading the NFL in rushing.

Stop Taylor and don't turn the ball over and you can beat the Colts. Turnovers are hard to predict when there's a veteran at quarterback, which the Raiders have in Derek Carr.

The Raiders have improved their run defense. They held Nick Chubb to less than 4.0 yards a carry in beating the Browns two weeks ago. Then Las Vegas stopped Denver's rushing attack completely last week in a victory. The Broncos managed only 18 yards on the ground.

The Colts are expected to have Carson Wentz. It's a big break for the Raiders if rookie Sam Ehlinger has to make his first start. I'm not counting on that. But lost in the news that Wentz is likely to play is the Raiders getting four key defenders removed from the COVID list - leading tackler linebacker Denzel Perryman, linebacker Cory Littleton, lineman Darius Philon and cornerback Casey Hayward, who is having a huge bounce back season.

The Raiders are 2-1 in their last three road games. They can clinch their first playoff berth in 19 years with a victory here and in Week 18 against the Chargers.

The Cowboys' defense is better. However, their offense is worse. The combination of that, short revenge for Washington, the return of Taylor Heinicke and a boatload of points in this long-standing division rivalry puts me on Washington.

Dallas may not have its full motivation having clinched a playoff berth already when the 49ers lost to the Titans on Thursday.

The Cowboys nearly blew a 19-point lead when the teams met two weeks ago winning, 27-20. Washington will have Heinicke back after being forced to go with street free agent Garrett Gilbert against the Eagles last week due to Heinicke and backup QB Kyle Allen being sidelined by COVID-19. Washington is 6-6 with Heinicke under center.

Dak Prescott (calf) and Ezekiel Elliott (knee) are not 100 percent - and their performances have reflected that. Prescott has failed to exceed 238 yards passing in four of his last five games. Prescott has three TD passes and three interceptions in his last three games. Elliott hasn't broken the 52-yard rushing barrier in his last eight games. He's averaged more than 3.0 yards per carry only once during these past eight games.

Mike McCarthy brazenly and foolishly guaranteed the Cowboys would beat Washington in the first meeting. Ron Rivera could not have taken kindly to that amateurish display. Rivera is the better coach. It wouldn't shock me if Washington won this game straight-up.

Both teams are 7-7. But I consider the Broncos to be the superior team. I like the Broncos' defense, coaching, running backs and wide receivers better than the Raiders. I also give Denver a checkmark at tight end if Darren Waller has to miss another week.

Denver has held opponents to 17 points or fewer in six of its last eight games. The Raiders have managed 16 points or fewer in six of their last seven games. Hunter Renfroe has emerged as the Raiders' most productive offensive player. He does his damage from the slot. However, the Broncos get back cornerback Bryce Callahan this week from a knee injury. He's one of the better slot coverage corners. He gives the Broncos a strong secondary to go with cornerback Patrick Surtain and safety Justin Simmons.

Drew Lock is going to start for injured Teddy Bridgewater. I welcome that change from a Denver standpoint. Lock doesn't have Bridgewater's accuracy, but he's more of a downfield threat. He is better equipped to take advantage of the Broncos many receiving weapons, which include Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick and Noah Fant. Lock has been turnover-prone in the past. The Raiders, though, have a league-low five interceptions, only three by their cornerbacks. The Raiders' secondary also is dealing with COVID-19 and injuries. Safety Jonathan Abram is out for the season.

I also give the Broncos a strong running back edge with Melvin Gordon and good-looking rookie Javonte Williams. They can take the pressure off Lock. The Raiders have only eight sacks in their last six games.

Jacksonville has a real opportunity to do something it hasn't done during the last 15 games - win on the road. 

The opponent and timing are right for the Jaguars to halt the NFL's longest road losing streak. 

The Jets are terrible on both sides of the ball giving up the most yards and points while ranking 27th in scoring. They've also committed the most turnovers. If this isn't bad enough, the Jets are dealing with a major COVID-19 problem. Currently they have 18 players on the protocol list along with head coach Robert Saleh. The Jets already have many key injuries. They don't have the depth to deal with this. 

Jacksonville has the better defense, superior quarterback and top running back in James Robinson. The Jaguars give up 5.7 yards per play, which ranks 21st in the league. The Jets rank last allowing 6.2 yards per play. 

I'm not a huge fan of Darrell Bevell and Brian Schottenheimer, the Jaguars' new offensive brain trust. But they are professionals and an upgrade on clueless Urban Meyer. The Jaguars should be more focused for this matchup without the toxic Meyer after having to play the Texans last week just three days after finding out Meyer had been fired.

Missing Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley for much of the year, Matt Ryan has had a very disappointing season. So have the Falcons. 

The 6-8 Falcons still are alive for a playoff spot, though. This is a get well game for them and the timing couldn't be more perfect. 

The Lions are off just their second victory. Detroit has yet to win on the road. The Lions nipped the Vikings, 29-27, three games ago for their first win. Detroit followed that up by getting hammered on the road by the Broncos, 38-10. 

Now the Lions are off a 30-12 victory against the Cardinals and taking to the road. The Lions aren't expected to have Jared Goff. There's a huge drop from Goff to backup Tim Boyle, who is not going to be helped playing on the road. 

Detroit also has a cluster injury problem at cornerback. The Lions already were down Jeff Okudah and his replacement, Jerry Jacobs. Now they aren't expected to have Amani Oruwariye, who has become their No. 1 corner. Oruwariye has a thumb injury and may need surgery. 

So the Lions will have to face Ryan with Will Harris, a converted safety, and rookie Ifeatu Melifonwu at the starting cornerback spots. It's not like the Lions have the depth to fill these areas. Detroit ranks in the bottom-eight in all of the major defensive categories. 

The Falcons can't beat elite teams, but they've been solid against sub .500 foes having defeated the Giants, Jets, Jaguars and Panthers. 

The Eagles have won four of their last five games to reach 7-7. The Eagles are more average than good, though. During this five-game span the Eagles have faced the following five quarterbacks: Garrett Gilbert, Zach Wilson, Daniel Jones, Trevor Siemian and Teddy Bridgewater. 

Philadelphia's lone loss during this time frame came to Jones and the Giants, 13-17, in Week 12. Jalen Hurts had the worst game of his two-year NFL career in that matchup throwing three interceptions. 

The Giants won't have the injured Jones. Instead they'll go with untested Jake Fromm, who will be making his NFL first start. Fromm is a downgrade from Jones, but he can't be worse than Mike Glennon. Fromm has had a full week of working with New York's first-stringers this week. He has good skill position weapons. 
The Eagles are on a short week having beaten COVID-19 decimated Washington, 27-17, this past Tuesday night. The Eagles might not have their head coach, Nick Sirianni. The Eagles have the most inexperienced coaching staff in the NFL. It's a challenge for them to prepare on such a short week.  

The Giants are out of playoff contention at 4-10. But their defense has been hanging in and they will have motivation for this matchup. If you discount games against the Chargers and Buccaneers - two offenses with far stronger passing attacks than the Eagles - the Giants have given up an average of 17.8 points in their last six games. 

Besides this being a long-standing division rivalry, the Giants still hold a legitimate grudge against the Eagles for Philadelphia tanking in last season's finale against Washington. The Giants beat the Cowboys in their final game, but were denied the NFC East Division title when the Eagles failed to beat Washington. Then Eagles coach Doug Pederson replaced Hurts with backup Nate Sudfeld during the fourth quarter against Washington. Sudfeld was horrible, to no one's surprise, committing two costly turnovers. 

The Giants also want to see if Fromm can do anything given an opportunity. So there's some intrigue there. 

I want the Titans going for me in a Thursday night home underdog role desperately needing a victory. The Titans have cobbled together a serviceable ground attack without Derrick Henry and they're getting back their two best wide receivers, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones.

That's huge for Ryan Tannehill, who has suffered without his two top targets. The 49ers are banged-up in the secondary. They also will be missing their leading rusher, Elijah Mitchell.

San Francisco is ground-oriented. The 49ers set up the pass via running the ball. The Titans, however, rank No. 2 in run defense. Tennessee has improved very much defensively. Discounting giving up 36 points to the Patriots, the Titans have held their past five opponents to an average of 15.6 points. They just held the Steelers to 168 total yards last week. That was the least amount of yards Tennessee has permitted in 11 years.

The 49ers are on a nice roll, but I don't consider them an elite NFC team worthy of beating a similar-caliber AFC team.

Much has changed since the Saints beat the Buccaneers, 31-27, back on Oct. 31. None of it good for New Orleans.

No team has been worse as a big home favorite than the 49ers under Kyle Shanahan. San Francisco has failed to cover the last 10 times they've been home chalk when laying 5 or more points. All together, they are 4-15-1 ATS in this role.

The Falcons have been at their best on the road winning six of eight games away from Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Cordarrelle Patterson has emerged this season as a rushing/receiver threat rather than just a dangerous kick returner. His presence relieves much of the pressure on Matt Ryan to have to win this game himself. The Falcons' ground game has picked up thanks to Patterson, averaging 132.6 rushing yards the past three games.

Atlanta remains in the playoff hunt so a hard effort should be a given.

San Francisco has been hard hit by injuries in the secondary and at running back. The 49ers are ground-oriented with a game-manager type QB in Jimmy Garoppolo. They are not geared to covering big margins like this.

Pittsburgh is home and in must-win mode at 6-6-1 while the Titans have clear sailing to the AFC South Division title. The Titans, though, are not the same team since losing Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown, their best wide receiver. 

Tennessee hasn't broken the 23-point barrier in its last four games, averaging 17.2 points during this span. The Steelers' defense should be much better with T.J. Watt and cornerback Joe Haden returning to the lineup. Ryan Tannehill hasn't passed for more than 213 yards in four of his last five games.

The Titans' defense isn't strong enough to carry their depleted offense minus linebacker Bud Dupree and a banged-up secondary. Najee Harris has lived up to lofty expectations and Ben Roethlisberger still is showing life averaging 270 yards passing his past four games with nine TD throws during this time frame. 

The Steelers also are on extra rest having played last Thursday. That's big this late in the season. 

Nearly three months ago, the Chargers and Chiefs played in Kansas City. Justin Herbert threw a TD pass to Mike Williams with 32 seconds left to give LA a 30-24 victory. 

As good as the Cardinals have been this season they still haven't done much at home. Arizona has lost its past two home contests - to the Packers and Panthers - and has a losing spread mark at home. The Cardinals would have a losing straight-up mark at home, too, if they didn't nip the Vikings by one point.

Let's start with the premise Denver is going to win. This is perfectly logical since the Broncos are favored by double-digits and the Lions have one victory during their past 16 games.

Now the hard part. Will Denver cover the spread? The evidence and situation say they will.

The Broncos are 6-6. Their six victories were by 14 against the Giants, by 10 against the Jaguars, the Jets by 26, 7 over Washington, 14 against the Cowboys and 15 versus the Chargers. So all but one of their wins was by double-digits. The Broncos take care of business against bad teams. Their average winning margin against the Giants, Jaguars and Jets was 16.6 points.

Denver has lost only once to a sub .500 team. That was to the 6-7 Eagles.

Now the situation. The Broncos remain in the playoff hunt. The Lions are fat and happy having ended the NFL's longest losing streak with their victory against the Vikings at home last Sunday. The Lions hadn't reached 20 points since opening week prior to beating the Vikings, while averaging a puny 11.4 points during their previous four games.

Vic Fangio isn't going to be too challenged devising a defensive game plan to face such a weak offense, which probably will be devoid of its best player, injured D'Andre Swift. Jared Goff has never been a cold weather quarterback. The Broncos have an excellent secondary and their pass rush has improved.

It's never easy to be the NFL Thursday night road team especially in a non-conference matchup when you don't know your opponent. The Steelers not only find themselves in that role, but also off a huge Sunday victory against the Ravens.

The Vikings, on the other hand, are seeking redemption after becoming the first team to lose to the Lions this season. It's no consolation for the Vikings that they outgained the Lions by nearly 50 yards.

Minnesota had a number of key people out, or injured in that game. The Vikings' defense will get a huge boost with the expected return of linebackers Eric Kendricks, their best defender, and Anthony Barr. Both missed the Lions game.

It's a plus if Dalvin Cook can play. But I don't see the Vikings needing him to cover this small spread. Alexander Mattison is one of the better backup running backs and Kirk Cousins is having a huge statistical season with a 25-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Steelers still are likely to be down their best cornerback with Joe Haden expected to miss a fourth consecutive game.

The Steelers' ground attack has regressed. It's going to be rough on ancient Ben Roethlisberger to perform well behind a bad offensive line on a short week.

The Raiders are a difficult team to figure out. But this is an extremely tough situational spot for Washington, off a narrow home win against the Seahawks this past Monday.

Washington has to travel cross-country now on a short week. The Raiders, by contrast, are on extra rest having played last Thursday. 

Las Vegas got its offense back in gear picking up 509 total yards and scoring 36 points against the Cowboys during its Thanksgiving upset victory. 

A special teams checkmark goes to the Raiders, too. Daniel Carlson has been one of the better kickers in the league making 24 of 27 field goals, while Washington is unsettled at kicker. 

It's not just the expected return of Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins that makes the Cardinals worth backing. It's also the disarray that is the Bears and their key defensive injuries.

Khalil Mack is out for Chicago. Aikeem Hicks is questionable. So is Roquan Smith. He's been the Bears' best defensive player with nearly twice as many tackles as any other Bear. His sideline to sideline presence and pass rush threat would be highly missed by the Bears.

Matt Nagy is on his way out. It probably already would have happened if word didn't leak out before the Bears were ready to make the move. The Bears are extremely poorly coached. They were fortunate to beat the winless Lions on Thanksgiving.

The Cardinals are the fifth-leading scoring team in the NFL averaging 28.2 points despite Murray and Hopkins missing three games. Chicago averages 16.3 points. The Bears are last in passing. Their porous offensive line is going to have problems against sack masters Chandler Jones and Marcus Golden, who have combined for 18 sacks.

In Russ We Trust. That's the way I feel about this Monday night game with Seattle's season and future on the line.

Russell Wilson versus Taylor Heinicke is a huge mismatch. Wilson has had time to get the rust off following his absence from a finger injury. He has two of the three best wideouts on the field and is facing a Washington defense that is down pass rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat.

Heinicke is playing behind a banged-up offensive line. The Seahawks' defense has gotten better, allowing an average of 15 points per game during their last four games.

The Seahawks have proven themselves in prime time. They are 11-3 during their last 14 Monday night games. The stage is too big for Washington.

The Ravens don't cover as favorites. Baltimore has failed to cover seven of the past eight times as chalk. The Ravens have squeaked out five victories this season by an average winning margin of three points. 

So I'm happy to take points with Cleveland in this division matchup. 

Lamar Jackson is the big star. But I give the Browns a huge checkmark in the trenches. They lead the AFC with 29 sacks. Myles Garrett is No. 1 in the NFL with 13 sacks. The Browns have one of the best offensive lines in football. 

The Ravens are without left tackle Ronnie Stanley, their best offensive lineman, and they have nothing but garbage at running back with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards both out for the season. If you discount their performance against the Patriots two weeks ago, the Browns have yielded an average of just 13.7 points in their last four games. 

Nick Chubb gives the Browns the best running back. Kareem Hunt is expected to play after being on IR with a calf injury. This outstanding 1-2 punch - maybe the best in the league - takes the pressure off Baker Mayfield. 

Yes, the Bengals are improved. They are not improved enough, however, to be trusted to cover margins in division matchups like this one. Prior to beating the sinking Raiders last week, the Bengals had lost straight-up to the Jets and to the Browns by 25 points.

The Steelers have covered 72 percent of the time they've been 'dogs during the past 26 instances. 

Cincinnati defeated Pittsburgh back in Week 3. It was just the second time in the last 13 meetings the Bengals beat the Steelers. Cincinnati hasn't swept Pittsburgh since 2009.

Pittsburgh's defense looked bad against the Chargers last Sunday. Keep in mind, the Steelers were minus T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Joe Haden in that game. All three are expected back this week. Watt, in particular, makes a huge difference. Fitzpatrick could be their second-best defender next to Watt and Haden is their top cornerback. Watt missed the first game against the Bengals. 

Ben Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh's offensive line have been playing better. Roethlisberger has a 104.3 QB rating the past five games, while throwing nine TD passes and no interceptions during this span. 

The Patriots are playing their best ball winning five in a row. New England's average winning margin in these games is by 25 points. The Patriots' defense has been mind-boggling, surrendering only one touchdown during their opponent's past 31 possessions.

The Titans, on the other hand, are in trouble despite their impressive 8-3 record. They are averaging just 79 yards on the ground since Derrick Henry was injured three games ago. Their passing attack isn't strong, or deep enough, to compensate with Julio Jones out and A.J. Brown banged-up.

Tennessee's offensive is at less than full strength. Ryan Tannehill has been sacked 31 times. The Titans had a league-high 20 players on injured reserve last week and are missing several key defensive players, including linebacker Bud Dupree.

Mac Jones is doing the job for the Patriots with his poise and accuracy helped by an efficient ground attack, an offensive line that is playing well and excellent coaching.

The Patriots are on extra rest, too, having played last Thursday. Bill Belichick is a master game-planner. So expect the Patriots to take full advantage of their momentum, Tennessee's problems and the situation.

Timing is very bad for the Saints here. This is a short week for the Saints. They've been without their best offensive players - Alvin Karmara, Jameis Winston, Michael Thomas and tackles Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk. These injuries have turned the Saints into a punchless, weapon-less offense operated by Trevor Siemian, one of the more ineffective backup quarterbacks in the league.

The result is New Orleans is on a three-game losing streak. That hasn't happened to the Saints since the first three games of the 2016 season.

New Orleans draws a much more well-rounded - and angry Bills team that just got destroyed, 41-15, at home by the Colts this past Sunday. The Bills have followed up their previous three losses with blowout victories winning those next games by an average of 26 points.

Buffalo ranks No. 2 in scoring at 29.5 points and is fifth in total yards. The Saints can't keep up with that. Their offense is just a shell of its former self.

New Orleans' defensive strength is its run defense, although you couldn't tell by watching the Saints get trampled by the Eagles this past Sunday. The Bills, though, are a passing team. The Saints are giving up 29.2 points per game during their last four games. That's right on the number of what the Bills average per game.

It's not who you play in the NFL it's when you play them. That applies in this case. The Texans have lost eight in a row. Bill O'Brien really buried this franchise before departing the Houston scene. He should never be allowed to set foot on Texas soil again. The Texans are at expansion level.

But the Texans will prove tough here.

After winning six in a row - the last five against playoff teams - the Titans are in a monster letdown spot. They have the Patriots on deck.

Tennessee no longer has an explosive offense. Derrick Henry and Julio Jones are both out. It's not a coincidence the Titans have had their two worst rushing games of the season since losing Henry to a broken right foot.

Houston has the running advantage with David Johnson, Phillip Lindsay, Rex Burkhead and Tyrod Taylor, one of the better running QB's in the league, compared to the Titans' Adrian Peterson and D'Onta Foreman.

The Texans' offensive line is terrible. But injuries have greatly reduced the effectiveness of Tennessee's offensive line. Ryan Tannehill has been sacked 29 times. That's tied with rookie Justin Fields for being the most sacked QB in the NFL.

Taylor was extremely rusty against the Dolphins in his first start after being out for six weeks with a hamstring injury. Houston had its bye last week. Expect Taylor, an 11-year veteran with a history of not turning the ball over, to be much sharper. The Texans are plus eight in point differential during the 10 quarters Taylor has played.

This is a game Houston coach David Culley has been pointing to. He's a native of Tennessee and has an extensive college coaching record inside the state of Tennessee.

The Texans come in rested and motivated. The Titans lack the firepower to blow an opponent out now especially when in a flat spot.

Despite a 3-7 record, the Dolphins have life after their dominating victory against the Ravens last Thursday. The Dolphins' next four games are against the Jets, Panthers, Giants and Jets again. Those are all winnable games, which would put Miami at 7-7.

The Dolphins should get this one against the Jets, who have serious quarterback issues and a thin defense that has collapsed because of injuries.

Sometimes it's a mistake to overreact to one game. But beating the Ravens was a huge confidence-builder for the Dolphins. This was a dominant 22-10 victory, too. It was the second-fewest points Baltimore scored with Lamar Jackson as its starting QB. The Ravens could manage only 94 yards on the ground, which was their second-lowest rushing output in four years.

The Dolphins are a heavy blitzing team and the Jets have a well-below average offensive line to protect washed-up Joe Flacco, who was named the starting QB this week.

The Jets have lost nearly all of their above average defensive talent. The result is New York is giving up an average of 43.7 points in its last four games. The Jets rank last defensively in points and yards. They are second-to-last in pass defense.

Tua Tagovailoa is an improving QB, who can take advantage.

This is a cheap price to back the superior, motivated team against what's turned into another Jets disaster.

Tyrod Taylor is back under center. That makes a huge difference for Houston. Taylor is a professional. Rookie Davis Mills was a rank amateur in way above his head as a starting NFL quarterback.

Taylor played six quarters before he was injured. The Texans outscored their two opponents, 51-35, during that span. 

No Taylor isn't some savior. He's a veteran journeyman. The Texans are one of the worst teams in the NFL. But their 1-7 record is the same as Miami's. 

The Dolphins give up even more yards than the Texans. Miami ranks 31st in defensive total yards and 29th in scoring defense permitting 29.1 points. 
The Dolphins on offense are just as bad ranking in the bottom-four in yards gained, points, rushing yards and turnovers. 

Houston has a bye next week. So the Texans should be putting forth a strong effort. 

Miami isn't nearly the playoff team it was last season. So you have to wonder about the Dolphins' morale. 

The Pro Football Hall of Fame collected Mike White's jersey from last Sunday's stunning Jets' 34-31 win against the Bengals. Heady stuff. Kudos to the Jets, who caught the Bengals traveling in a division sandwich spot after beating the Ravens and hosting the Browns this week.

The Jets are in the bad spot this week in their own letdown situation and playing a Thursday road game against a frustrated and motivated opponent that is at least two levels better than them.

So I'm not afraid to lay this number with Indy. It's the Colts' first prime time home game in four years.

The Colts are much the superior team and are in near must-win mode after blowing a two-touchdown lead last week in their AFC South Division showdown loss to the Titans.

White isn't throwing for more than 400 yards and three TD's like he did against Cincinnati. White doesn't possess that kind of skill level. Defenses have film on him now, too, and Indy is well-coached defensively.

The stunning victory against the Bengals obscures just how wretched the Jets really are. New York averages 13 fewer points per game than its opponents and 84 fewer yards. The Jets have the worst ground attack in the league and the highest percentage of passes intercepted.

Carson Wentz has thrown multiple TD's in six straight games. Jonathan Taylor has reinforced his reputation as a stud running back. The Colts' offensive line has gotten healthy.

Expect a Colts blowout.

This has all the markings of a pick'em type game between two solid no-frill teams. 

Don't overthink this one. The Titans are worse than their 3-2 record. If the Bills don't pass the eye test of being the best team in the NFL right now following their road victory against the Chiefs they certainly pass the statistical test. Buffalo entered this week leading the NFL in scoring at 34.4 points per game while giving up the fewest points at 12.8. 

The Colts can't come close to matching the dynamic Lamar Jackson. The Colts' strength has been their play in the trenches. But lacking a dominant pass rusher and suffering multiple injuries in the offensive line leave the Colts mediocre as their 1-3 accurately reflects. 

Seattle swept San Francisco last season and the Seahawks should win this game because of Russell Wilson. He has the arms, legs and intelligence to take advantage of the 49ers' cluster injury situation in their secondary.