3* Cincinnati -9 1/2 or less over Toledo

CFB LINE TRAP

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Play on:  3* (103) Louisiana Tech+ 4 over North Texas @ 8:00 Eastern

Tech was our early choice last week, but we pulled back after the 2-1/2 point line movement Sunday through Monday.  Eventually, the game closed at UL-L -15-1/2 or -16.  The Bulldogs went on to an easy 48-20 underdog win at Louisiana.  LT is now 2-0 ATS on the season, including the loss at Oklahoma (16-48) getting 35-1/2 points.  North Texas comes Thursday night off an opening 38-7 loss at Texas and a huge bounce-back blowout win over SMU 43-6. Knowing the Louisiana Tech program fairly well, I can tell you in knee-jerk fashion that the Bulldogs should win this game SU.  My only reservation is the spot, Tech is playing their third straight road game. The game opened NT -6 on Sunday night, now the number is at -4, maybe -4 ½.  Last year NTU (-3) defeated LT 28-13 in Ruston, so this is a REVENGE game for the visitor. The Mean Green were 9-4 LY winning in bowl action against UNLV 36-14.However, NTU should have some trouble in key games with just 9 returning starters, no less none on the DL.  This works in LTs favor with their strong running attack controlling tempo.  Both units have FCS opponents next, so no look ahead.  Tech is 5-0 ATS off a SU underdog win and 16-6 ATS in road tilts.  Finally, the Mean Green strong at home covering 8-of-9.  However, as stated Louisiana Tech is our choice to win the whole game.

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Play on:  10* Utah over Fresno State

CFB NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH

Hard to believe FSU who let out 700+ yards against Southern Cal, while succumbing to a 52-13 loss, can even restructuring Utah.  The major missing piece from last year is the starting QB for the Houston Texans, Derek Carr who threw 50 touches last year for the Bulldogs.  Noticing that once the Fresno defense moved up in class (USC) they were destroyed early and often failing 35-6 at half-time. Now they must suck it up and go back on the road vs. another PAC-12 team the Utah Utes.  Remember Fresno brought back only 5 starters on offense.  Utah is a much different story.  They crushed an FCS unit Idaho State 56-14.  That does grant them exempt status vs. Fresno State, they will need to excel in all aspects of their game to win and cover.  Utah brings back 12 starters and 53 letters, so they do have depth.  Last season, despite their 5-7 mark played well against some of the conference elite, upsetting Stanford, losing by one to ASU and by seven to UCLA.  Also, they won SU at 8-5 BYU.  My reasoning is the Utes have played at a higher level against elite teams than Fresno faces on an annual basis.  Kyle Willingham is a great coach and should have his troops prepared well.  Techs show the Bulldogs are 2-7 ATS vs. the PAC-12.  Utah is 4-0 ATS in non-conference games, 4-0 ATS at home in this series.  We close with FSU 14-37-2 ATS off a SU loss.  Playing B2B games on the road vs. Southern Cal and now Utah is a killer for any football team.

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Play on:  4* New Mexico State+ (331) over Georgia State @ 2:00 Eastern

GSU is coming off a 0-12 season with just 8 RS hitting the field.  Last week they won a thriller over Abilene Christian 38-37 an FCS school.  AC had a 9 minute TOP advantage and still loss.  Two 4th down conversions helped GSU, along with their return units garnering field position.  But, trying to leap frog into FBS status can be a tricky transition.  LV opened GSU -3 vs. NMS, the game is down to -1, and rightly so.  Remember, the Aggies were forecasted to have an upgrade last year with Doug Martin taking over the controls as head coach.  Unfortunately, they still faltered with a 2-10 record, 3-21 L2 years overall.  Last week they did cash with 28-10 win over Cal Poly, nothing to brag about, but a win in which they controlled the line of scrimmage with their running attack.  The visiting Aggies have 13 RS, 8 on offense. The biggest asset NMS has going this season is their move to the Sun Belt Conference.  They play only one monster in 2014, and that’s LSU.  Last year they played a rough schedule vs. Texas, Minnesota, UCLA, San Diego State and Boston College.  Clearly, GSU is a major drop-off in game tension, so we should secure a solid win here on Saturday…Good Luck!

4* South Alabama over Kent State

COLLEGE LINE VALUE BEST BET

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10* Illinois -4 or less over Western Kentucky

CFB LINE VALUE GAME OF THE WEEK

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Write-up Delayed.

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Play on: 3* Nevada+ over Washington State

Just like UTSA last night Nevada is part of a highly successful "returning starter" system that has been prevalent over the last 20+ years.  Overall, the game should go to the wire with the spread favoring the WOLFPACK who have 17 returning starters.

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10* (304) Boston College+ over Pittsburgh @ 7:00 Eastern

Eastern Edge Game of the Month

Both schools are coming off initial successes Boston College defeated UMass 30-7, while Pittsburgh thrashed Delaware 62-0.  Pittsburgh leads the series 16-13, winners of three straight.  This series has been closely contested with 8 games showing a net difference of four points or less. The schools last played in 2004. Key loss from last years team for BC is RB Williams who was one of the most productive backs in the country and a Heisman hopeful…Against UMass it appeared the BC running game did not lose a beat, however, with the Murphy, Rouse and Willis tandem productive outbursts.  In the Pittsburgh 62-0 win last week RB Conner mauled the Blue Hens for four touchdowns.  Still, the Panthers did lose key WR Boyd with a hand injury. So, once again look for Pitt to go to the running game for their overall offensive needs.  They show 1-5 SU at BC and 5-13 SU in road starts. Technically, the Panthers show 0-4 ATS off a SU win and 0-10 ATS against the ACC.  Whereas, the younger BC unit has solid numbers covering 5-of-6 at home, and 4-0 ATS at home versus a school with a winning road mark. Realize BC last lost their last two FBS home openers to Miami Fla. (2011) and Northwestern (2012), but this is a bigger game for the Eagles who are looking for RESPECT in their new haunt, the ACC.

LSU opens in Reliant Stadium on August 30th against talented Wisconsin. The Badgers second year coach Gary Anderson completed a solid 2013 with an impressive 9-4 mark. However, the Badgers did finish on a sour note losing to South Carolina 34-24 in the Capital One Bowl.  This season Wisconsin brings back 9 starters, but none on the defensive line. Overall the Badgers finished statistically #7 on defense in 2013 and solid replacements and aggressive "D."  The Tigers will have QB Jennings in the saddle first in the battle with QB Brandon Harris for the overall job. Figured pretty much from Miles who believes in the UC status.  The Tigers solid OL and RB corpse can play with most teams in the country, but the WR unit has been depleted with key recruit Malachi Dupree not making the trip.  On defense, the unit was hurt with super CB Rashard Robinson's suspension.  DC "Chief" Chavis is a class act and now has more experienced LB's to work with this season. As we mentioned the DL is an issue and a "new" unit, so we imagine the Badgers will do some damage with a more athletic quarterback.  In such a toss-up game, feel the POINTS are the VALUE.

Play on: 10 DIME ARKANSAS over Auburn

SEC MASSIVE CRUSHER

BDS

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5* Alabama (177) over West Virginia @ 3:30 Eastern

CFB NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE WEEK

Our opening play in college football goes on the road to Morgantown West Virginia as the Crimson Tide take on the Mounties.  West Virginia brings back 13 starters to the key 22.  Alabama has 12 starters back, but are loaded on both sides of the ball.  They finished the season 0-2 SU with losses to Auburn and Oklahoma.  Think “Little Nicky” is pissed off? West Va. finished 4-8 SU last season, losing their last three games to Texas, Kansas and Iowa State.  Granted the Mounties have more experience this year, but QB Clint Trickett is coming off shoulder problems.  Defensively, they have just one talented starter coming back on the “D” line.  Saturday the Crimson Tide plays with Nick Saban being considered the most talented coach in College Football.  Alabama is 46-7 SU in his last L4 seasons, but the Tide is coming off a 45-31 loss to Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl, a game in which the chalk gave away 4 turnovers.  Former Alabama QB AJ McCarron committed two turnovers helping OU to 14 points. Think “Little Nicky” is pissed off? Against the spread there are some conflicting numbers as we show Alabama 8-0 ATS -28 or less in non-conference (note the aforementioned line reference), but 0-5 ATS off B2B SU losses. Also, we show ‘Bama 7-0 ATS in the first lined game of the year.  Finally, teams losing their bowl games SU when laying 7 or more are hitting 60% ATS in game #1. WVU is killing their backers going 8-15 ATS L2 years and 3-13 ATS at home against a unit off a double-digit SU defeat….ALABAMA!

10* Virginia+ over UCLA

LINE VALUE GAME OF THE MONTH

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