10* Houston over San Diego State

COLLEGE BOWL OPENING TOP PLAY ALERT....Not afraid to lay points versus offensive minded San Diego State (8-3) with the Cougars (9-3) playing a more difficult schedule during the year. Feel you will see some late money on the Strip Saturday for SDS but, not to worry as the emotional edge completely goes to Houston with a new offensive minded coach (Applewhite) looking for the big win to start his career off on a positive note down in Texas.

Technically, the Cougars have covered 8-of-10 at neutral sites and 16-5 ATS in non-conference.  High flying Padres 0-4 ATS vs. >.500 units and 2-9-1 ATS in non-conference.  In closing, the SDS is a real negative 2-6-1 ATS during the month of December.  Good Luck.

5* WEST VA.+ (342) over Oklahoma
No doubt the "super sooners" come in loaded for muskie as they have won 7 straight conference games.  OU is 8-2 overall, but have not done well on the Strip this season.  They did crush Baylor (did you say defense?) last week, but playing in Morgantown is whole different scenario.  The home standing Mounties have dropped one heart breaker to Oklahoma State this season, and come 8-1 SU after winning against over valued Texas last week.  West Va. with their vaunted offense the Mounties should be able to trade points throughout this contest to support their current 4-1 ATS record in November.  Although the Sooners are catching the Vegas money, believe we have another upset today with this club 1-4 ATS on the road last five times out.

5* NAVY over East Carolina

CFB GAME OF THE WEEK...BDS

Cashed both our Thursday night games, refrained on Friday, but looking for more here. At this time of the season, must favor Middies mental and physical advantages as they will most likely win the turnover battle versus inconsistent Pirates...Good Luck!

Play on: 4* SAN DIEGO STATE over Wyoming @ 3:30 Eastern

Normally, don't like laying DDs on the road but, this seems to be super situation even considering the line adjustment.  SDS shows 9-1 SU winning 6 straight, going 5-1 ATS for money clones. The Pokes come in off a loss to UNLV last time, only to lose in 'trips OT 69-66, AND OF COURSE NOT COVERING.

LOOKING BACK...Wyoming comes in 3-11 ATS in November, while the road team in this series is red hot at 4-1 ATS.  Considering that numbers don't lie late in the season look for State to crush COWBOY COUNTRY.

Play on: 4* Washington State (373) over Colorado 

Colorado actually plays in the PAC-12, "My mother would be shocked to know the Buffs are playing road games near water."  Still have to respect State despite the road setting.  They have not lost a conference and scored 56 on Cal last week.  Overall, the surprising unit from Pullman has won 8-of-10 SU, while earning in Vegas overall.  After losing to the Trojan Horse the Buffs have been hot and come 8-2 SU, while stealing 6-of-10 on the Strip.  The public seems to be backing Colorado considering the line moves, but remember the road unit is 5-1 ATS in the series along with the UNDERDOG, Ditto.

OVER LAY AGAINST AN EASTERN UNIT THAT CAN SCORE AGAINST RELAXED COUG "D."  

4* OKLAHOMA STATE+...FALSE LINE MOVEMENT VIA THE SHARPS, BUT LIKE THE MONEY PLUS HERE AS THE COWBOYS WILL CATCH THE FROGS A LITTLE SHORT EARLY SATURDAY.  GOOD LUCK.

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5* EASTERN MICHIGAN over NIU
Not afraid to buck the Huskies this evening who are both 3-7 SU & ATS on the season.  Surprisingly, EMU is rocking with a 6-4 SU record, while going 8-2 ATS in Vegas. They are 5-1 ATS off an ATS win, NIU 1-3 ATS on the road.  Remember, the Huskies have lost both their quarterbacks this season (Hare and Maddie), so I'll go with the surprising EMU to pick the cash on Wednesday night...Good Luck.

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10* USC +7-1/2 or +8 (6-3) over Washington (9-0) @ 7:30 Eastern
Just getting up to speed in College Football for this week.  Well, we our earlier BIG-10 GOY won for you this Saturday.  Here, we all know the Huskies are generating CFB Playoff vibes and rightly so, considering their ability and guile. Still, I love the number that has now dropped down to +7-1/2 for the wacky Trojans.  Remember, UNDERDOG is 4-1 ATS in the series, and Trojans show strong at 4-1 ATS against the conference rivals coming into action Saturday.  If USC gets off quickly, don't be surprised an outright UPSET is on-deck.  Good Luck.

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10* Purdue+ over Northwestern @ 12:00 Eastern

BIG-10 GAME OF THE YEAR…BDS

Not afraid to go against wasted Wildcats who fought with Ohio State and Wisconsin the last few weeks.  Northwestern defeated Purdue last year taking advantage of 5 turnovers by the ‘Cats.  Realize NW the superior entity but, just don’t see marked effort here.  NW 6-13 ATS off a SU loss, while suffering ‘Due a super 8-2 ATS off a SU loss and 8-1 ATS after rushing for under 100 yards in their most recent game.  The road unit has done well of late in this series, but just can’t project a strong effort by the flat ‘Cats.  Good Luck!

Return later for the night card in all sports!

4* Toledo -7 or less, over NIU

Realize NIU off BB wins, can't recommend since they show 2-7 ATS vs. >.500 clubs.  Burning Rockets should have their way from the offensive standpoint, and show 7-0 ATS off a SU win of 10 or more points.  Look for a high scoring game and a cover by the Rockets!

PAC-12 BARKING DOG

11/05….5* (393) Oregon+ over USC @ 7:00 Eastern

Looks as though the public has taken heart knowing the Ducks defense is allowing 530 yards to opposing offenses, basically an open field to success.  This has resulted in the line moving from a -14 to -17 at press time. But, young QB Herbert of Oregon threw for almost 500 yards against Arizona State last Saturday. We know the Ducks are a long shot to become bowl eligible, while USC (5-3) must stay on their current path to secure post season entrance.

Last year Oregon was -4 over USC winning SU/ATS 48-28.  Hence, a revenge and a more critical situation for home standing USC. The major quirk here for this handicapper is the number, USC won by more than 20 points last week, but show 2-8 ATS in that role the next week.  Also, the Trojans are 10-26 ATS off a SU win.  So, with Oregon 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, we’ll grab the inflated number to cash.  Good Luck.

10* UMass (375) over Troy @ 3:30 Eastern

The “M’s” had to travel from Amherst to Troy this weekend which should help with the frequent flyer mileage for those privileged, that’s about 1,232 miles, a long-distance commute for sure.  The eastern visitor is 2-7 SU, 5-4 ATS on the campaign.  Home standing Troy out of the SBC comes off a 4-8 year, bringing back 13 starters.  Well the Trojans have them rocking down in Alabama winning 6-of-7 SU with the only loss to national star Clemson.  They opened the season covering 5 straight (5-2 ATS) games.  UMass finished 3-9 SU last, while returning only 10 starters and inexperience has hurt on the defensive end.  They started the season with losses to Boston College and Florida.  UMass has been competitive with the exception of the Louisiana Tech (28-56) game .  Remember Troy has won 5 straight, showing off a bye week, and have Appalachian State next. Troy is 2-1-1 ATS laying doubles this season, but I just don’t like the spot, since the Trojans bring a 0-4 ATS record after a bye.  Visiting UMass is 4-1 ATS on the road.  TAKE THE POINTS.

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3* Buffalo + over Ohio University @ 6:00 Eastern

Most power rating sources have the Bobbies (6-3) 3+ touchdown leader here.  However, there is a glaring factor to consider inside the letdown angle.  Ohio was just booked as a +16-point underdog, winning SU 31-26 last week at powerful Toledo (6-2) last week.  They have experienced Central Michigan next on the schedule.  In this series, Ohio has dominated with 6 straight victories however, Buffalo has covered 4-of-5 in Vegas.  Currently, Ohio has won 5-of-6, splitting on the big board 3-3 now plays into revenge.  Critical, on the negative side, the Bobbies have not covered a double-digit spread this season at 0-3 ATS L3 times out.  And, when you considered the visitor runs for 130 yards a game the Bulls have a great chance of staying close throughout.

We have more selections on deck.

3* Arizona+ over Stanford @ 11:00 Eastern

The Cardinal has fallen on hard times losing 3-of-4 to Washington, Washington State and Colorado. Last week they scored just 5 points against the Buffs.  And, we know Arizona has been banged up, but they are getting healthy at the quarterback position which tells me we have a "pay-on" situation in a much needed conference game at home.  Granted the series ATS has gone to Stanford of late, but their reality has us seeing a close game, maybe a FG win either.  Good Luck.

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5* Florida State over Clemson

ACC GAME OF THE WEEK…BDS

This battle is one of the most highly regarded matchups this season in College Football, and one of the most significant rivalries in the nation. The successful school has an inside shot at taking the conference and a good chance of playing in the four team set which eventually crowns the nation’s best team.  Clemson comes in 7-0 SU and looks to continue their national surge.  On the other hand, the 5-2 (UNC/Lousiville) Sems look to challenge with an injured defense.  Remember, though, RB Gallman is still questionable for the Tigers.  No matter, he will not be 100% for this situation.  Actually, we expect FSU to change some of their offensive play calling to allow for a more structure attack, keeping QB Watson of Clemson off the field as much as possible. Despite the injuries, FSU has the ability to win this SU, even though the road unit has been cashing in the series of late.  Technically, FSU shows 4-0 ATS after an ATS loss and 12-3-1 ATS scoring 20 or less in their most game.

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10* WASHINGTON #4 (199) over Utah #17 @ 3:30 Eastern
We have -9-1/2 in this game, in some areas it's as high as -10.  Do your home work and try your best to have -9-1/2 going into action.  One important angle for us was the 34-23 win by Utah last year in Washington.  To say the alumni were pissed off would be an understatement. This time around the units play in Utah. Last week Utah (7-1, 4-4) won at UCLA barely, while the Huskies at home crushed Oregon State.  So, Washington comes in fresh with a strong positive attitude knowing they must avenge last season's debacle.  The Huskies (7-0, 4-3) will use their balanced attack to pound the smaller Utes, causing gaps and allowing the passing game to develop. Although Utah will be sky high, we must note they are a perfect 0-4 ATS at home versus a winning road unit.  And the Huskies need not worry about the Troy Williams revenge, FINAL SCORE:  Washington 31 Utah 13, Good Luck.

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10* (H) Georgia Southern (110) over Appalachian State @ 7:30 Eastern

Hate going against App. State but, RB Cox appears to be less than 100% coming into action.  Last year Cox ran for two touchdowns in a 31-13 win over Southern, as the home team scored 31 straight points to win.  GS could not get their passing game going to balance their attack (64 yards), therefore the App. State defense was able to focus on the air game.  This time around, we look for a reversal of form as finally Southern has a more balanced attack and should at least stay under (dog) the number.  We note, App. State comes in 1-8 ATS off a SU win, while the home standing GS kids bring a 7-3 ATS record vs. >.500 units. GS has dropped 5 straight to the number, but appears to be the very best side here. TAKE THE POINTS!

4* Nebraska over Purdue

Bad building for the hurting Boilers as they travel to Lincoln to play the pissed off 'Huskers who were beaten last year by Purdue 55-45.  Nebraska will look to stay unbeaten with a 5-0 (4-1 ATS) streak after winning last week at Indiana.  Here we find the number daunting on the Strip but, Purdue is banged up physically and will fall early in what should be a 45-10 win approximately for Nebraska.

5* TCU+ (325) over West Va.

It looks as though the Horned Frogs don't be long on the same field as the Mounties, especially in Morgantown.  And, when you further note that WVU was smashed by this same unit 40-10 last year, you would fully expect a rebound effort considering.  WVU is 5-0 on the season and shows with Oklahoma State on-deck.  On paper, the major field weakness for either squad is the TCU defense that has been riddled by dual purpose offenses this season.  However, the Frogs have won 3-of-4 with the only loss to high flying Oklahoma.  Plus, they have gone 7-3 ATS in the month of October, while the Mounties are 6-20 ATS at home vs. a >.500 road unit. TAKE THE POINTS!

10* Colorado+ (389) over Stanford @ 3:00 Eastern

Last week all Big-10 road team won, so don't be surprised if that trend goes west this weekend with the exception of one encounter.  Granted the Cardinal did defeat the Irish last week at South Bend, but this Buffalo unit has really come on this season with a outstanding 5-2 record.  In addition, they show on a 7-0 ATS run this season...COLORADO!

5* Indiana (327) over Northwestern

Both clubs are now 3-3 on the season, but the Hoosiers show off difficult back-to-back losses to highly rated Ohio State and Nebraska.  In fact, if you add in the game against Michigan State three weeks ago it's obvious Indiana is falling down in class having to play upstart NW. Indiana comes in 5-1 ATS in conference, while the underdog fires a 5-2 ATS in this splendid series. 

5* USC over Arizona

Despite this road setting, still going with the young QB of the Trojans who's QBR is off the charts considering the opponents and settings.  And, we look for Adoree Jackson of USC to continue spurring the under valued special teams with his speed and big play ability, not discounting bringing field advantage situations.  Realize the underdog has been the play in this series but, the 'Cats are on a 1-7 ATS dinger and show just 5-11 ATS at home.  The road unit in the series has covered 5-of-7 in Vegas.  Stay with us as big games are on-deck.  Good Luck.

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10* Mississippi State +7 over BYU @ 10:15 E.

One of the keys  this season has been college football and the SEC combatants for this handicapper.  So, we absolutely love the Bulldogs (2-3) tonight, despite a road setting in altitude.   Also, we are ignoring the BYU (3-3) 5-1 ATS run on the Strip since they will truly experience a “national realm of reality” when they face this SEC unit off a loss.  Remember the Cougars show tonight 0-5 ATS against the SEC.  Good Luck.

10* UMASS over Tulane

The huge edge here is UMASS is coming down in class after a huge battle last week with an SEC unit, and they COVERED.  Here they match-up well with the Greenies, and they catch the unit traveling for a rare date back east.  Look for a SU win by UMASS.

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5* Florida over Vanderbilt @ 12:00 Eastern

SEC GAME OF THE WEEK

Realize the Commies are over their heads Saturday early when they face the upstart Gators who were just ousted by the fiery Volunteers in Knoxville.  Not only do the visitor possess the talent advantage, but they have now answers on defense to stop a diversified offense.  The road team is 8-0 ATS in the series, while Florida has covered 4 straight in Vegas when traveling to Vanderbilt.  Good Luck.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME OF THE WEEK

5* AUBURN +3-1/2 (394) over LSU @ 6:00 Eastern

Still not impressed by LSU thus far, considering we thought a National Title just might be in the cards.  However, the start-up of new DC Aranda’s defense showed some issues last week even in the win over a MSU unit that returned just 11 starters and were playing on the road already with a loss against South Alabama in their deck of cards.  Also, LSU has a banged up offensive line and there were many verbal out bursts on the sideline trying to generate cohesion last week.  Granted Fournette had a solid game, and he went nuts against the Tigers front last season for 200+ yards.  Still, Auburn has the running arsenal to power the LSU defensive line, even with their issues on the OL.  They have a workable QB in Stan White and 12 overall returning starters who were destroyed by LSU last season 45-21.  We look for a nail-bitter this time around as the home team in the series is 6-1 SU L7 times out and 6-1 ATS.  By the way, Auburn is 7-1 ATS off a double digit loss.

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10* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH

(304) Georgia Tech+ 9-1/2 or higher over Clemson @ 7:30 Eastern

Okay, maybe you’re not impressed by the 3-0 Engineers who have defeated Boston College, Mercer and Vandy the last three outings and now play on a short week versus Clemson who has a perky national ranking.  Still, when coach Johnson (3-9 LY) is dealing out the endorphins this week his 11 returning starters will accept whatever the savvy Johnson can generate.  Clemson (14-1 LY), who returns 12 starters, surfaces off three straight wins over Auburn (at), Troy and South Carolina State.  Tech may actually be their most difficult task as far as talent level thus far.  Unfortunately, the Tigers play off a short week too, but have a monster issue with Louisville next in South Carolina.  Feel Tech should have the emotional advantage here, considering Clemson beat them last year 43-24 holding their rushing attack to under 2 yards a carry.  “It appears” coach Johnson has a more balanced edition, and being at home possess legit shot at SU win.  Remember the Tigers are just 4-10 ATS in the ACC and 2-7 ATS on the road.  With the home team covering 6 straight in the series, we’re all over the Engineers!

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5* UCLA -3, not higher (169) over BYU (H) @ 10:15 Eastern

Have great respect for QB Josh Rosen of UCLA and his playmates in this difficult setting out in Provo.  Last year in California the Cougars were catching doubles and almost won the whole game, before going down in a 24-23 heap.  BYU is coming off a 9-4 season returning 15 starters.  They defeated (-1) Arizona in Glendale 18-16, then dropped a heart breaking 20-19 battle at Utah, while catching three plus.  To say the least they have driven their fans looney quite early.  UCLA finished 8-5 last year, and brings back 13 starters, 9 on defense.  In game #1 they lost to Texas A&M on the road in OT 31-24.  Against (-26) UNLV, the Bruins pranced to a 42-21 win.  In both cases there were minus signs next to their supporter’s financial statements, and here the Bruins open -1 vs. BYU, but the hard heads have pushed it to -3 this Thursday afternoon.  And, the basic trends behind the game favor BYU who is 4-0 ATS at home L4 times out.  However, we really LOVE UCLA who is off an easy encounter versus lesser UNLV, while the Cougars show off that 1-point war on the road.  Since we’ve checked out the BYU secondary, feel QB Rosen has a superior edge over the opposing stop troops…UCLA 30 BYU 20.

SEC GAME OF THE WEEK...Missouri +7

The line tension all week has been with the 'Dawgs realizes that Chubb is healthy and running.  But, the Tigers have lost back-to-back games to this squad and surely needs emotional lift for the games ahead, and they are at home.  Granted Mizzou scored 61 last week on hapless Eastern Michigan, and is not reasoning we focused upon.  Instead, it's conference bounce back, the home field and the fact, the Tigers are 7-2-1 ATS after scoring 40 plus.  Good Luck.

10* Texas State +31 or higher over Arkansas

LETDOWN THEORY GAME OF THE MONTH

No doubt the 2-0 'Hogs have the offense to score most every position versus smallish TSU.  In fact, the last time they laid -31 was in game #1 of last season winning 48-13 over UTEP.  However, the 'Hogs had Toledo next, so there was no look ahead scenario, whereas this time there is much more to ponder with Texas A&M on-deck.  Talk about a revenge game!  Arkansas has lost 4 straight to TAM, as the Aggies are one of the circled games for coach Bielema's troops.  When go back and review the last five games prior to Texas A&M, you will find the 'Hogs have come up short in the money category going 1-4 ATS.  Look for the 'Hogs at home to jump out quickly and coast to marginal win over the Bobcats, who show off a week of rest. 

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3* Tulane+ (200) over Navy @ 7:00 Eastern

Looking at the Wake Forest stat sheets in their early games with Tulane and Duke, we feel good that the Greenies will be able to move the football on the Navy defense, despite a unit having 7 returning starters.  In our minds Tulane will not only give the Middies a better game than UConn (11-26 L3) but, win SU.  UConn last week couldn’t run the football against Navy, Tulane’s diversified running game will make this encounter a down for down stress filled battle in Louisiana.  Remember Navy has just one returning starter on offense, Tulane has 5 with a solid bunch of contributors.  Last week against lesser Southern University the Greenies finally got their offense untracked.  This psychological up-tick should help with the confidence level of the team and first year coach Willie Fritz.  Last year Navy (-25) defeated Tulane 31-14 in Annapolis, that was after back-to-back disheartening wipe outs by Temple 49-10 and Houston 42-7 for the Greenies.  When playing Tulane last year Navy was showing off a 41-24 beating by Notre Dame, so the Middies were sky high at home.  The line has trickled down since the Sunday night opener of -11 with the public becoming aware of the competitiveness of Tulane, and the fact the triple option run by coach Fritz will cause interior issues on defense.  As a reminder there is a 100% estimate of thunderstorms and rain on Saturday in New Orleans…TAKE THE POINTS!

10* Northern Illinois +11 over San Diego State

LETDOWN THEORY APPLICATION

BDS...We couldn't pass this up knowing the Aztecs show off their California upset in a real offensive show.  However, they now go on road (cross country) to play in Illinois against what I call a square football team.  Look they show off being down in Florida 48-17 by SF.  Rod Carey was 8-6 last season but, his unit, as the decided underdog, is simply getting too many points at home.  HC Carey had 43 games coming into this season, and he knows how to jack up his squad. Granted this same squad did lose their MAC Title game last year so, they now have a chance to regain some "Mo" while shocking the public dollars.  NIU has 13 starters returning, therefore, sufficient experience to win the whole game.   Do you think the kids from California want to visit Illinois on a Saturday, when they could riding the waves?

10* CINCINNATI +7 or 7-1/2 over Houston

This situation fits into reverse angle set of games with the type of offense the Bearcats they should be able to take this to the wire.  We would love to have +7-1/2 instead of the flat 7, but we'll take the points considering the overall handicap.  Good Luck!

373...10* UNC over Illinois @ 7:30 Eastern
Last year North Carolina defeated the Illini 48-14 on their home field. The Tar Heels have won all three games in the series SU.  The line opened -10-11 approximately, and the public has been on the TAKE all week, as the Heels now -7 this morning.  Smell a trap? You bet!  The Fighting Illini have been hurt by graduations and injuries in their defense and now return only 4 starters on that side of the ball. On offense they should put up points considering the home field and their 52-3 win over FCS unit Murray State last week.  However, we note UNC was 11-3 last year tying a record, and bring back 14 starters frustrated from a bowl loss to powerful Baylor 49-38.  They averaged 40+ last year, and gave SEC, Georgia all they could handle last week in Atlanta. But, some analyst's down on the 'Heels?  Finally, North Carolina has now lost back-to-back games to Class units in Baylor and Clemson (ACC Title Game), and should rebound, even on the road, against a defensively challenged football team 31-14.

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3* (383) BYU+ over Utah @ 7:30 Eastern

Realize there has been substantial money bet on the Cougars out in Las Vegas last night, but still prefer this unit as one of the more dangerous in America with 15 returning starters and experienced QB Hill leading the offense.  Last week BYU went into Arizona and won SU 18-16 over Rich Rod and 15 returning starters, quite an accomplishment.  Utah shutout FCS unit Southern Utah 24-0 limiting their offense to just under 260 yards overall, but again an FCS school.  No doubt this traditional holy war has more relativeness for the Utes who will come to play at home.  However, this is a major REVENGE GAME for the visitor knowing they lost to Utah in the Las Vegas bowl last season.  Plus, the Cougars have lost 5 straight to the Utes, and desperately need to turn the heat up in Salt Lake City this evening to keep their preseason projections in play.  This encounter comes down a late score and a SU and ATS winner for the foe who can move the football on the ground.  BYU has made changes on the offensive line because of injuries, so we are keeping this play as an APPRECIATION order for our clients, thinking it will still be a nail-bitter.

10* ARKANSAS STATE+ over Auburn

This is a play against the War Eagle with coach Malzhan being a former coach at Arkansas State, and most likely not trying to step on their faces.  Granted Auburn lost a tough call last week to Clemson, but they have A&M next week?  Last year Malzhan faced three non-conference types before an SEC opponent, and did NOT cover the spread.  Mental here all Arkansas State as they steal cash from the War Eagle backers.  LOVE THIS GAME!

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3* Colorado State (350) -10 over UTSA @ 4:00 Eastern

The home standing Rams come off a 44-7 squashing by arch-rival Colorado, as the Buffs ran for 260 yards and almost 600 yards in total offense.  UTSA under former LSU assistant coach Frank Wilson defrocked FCS Alabama State 26-13, but has key RB Williams in limbo for this encounter.  Most observers did not realize (in value) how much CSU lost on defense from last season.  Colorado rolled out to a 31-0 lead at half-time augmented by a fumble-recovery touchdown in the first quarter which pretty much told the story of the football game.  Last year CSU struggled against UTSA on the road surviving 33-31, but the Rams were really flat early (down 17-9) in the first-half.  QB Stevens threw three touches to recoil his unit.  This past Saturday both Stevens (4th year junior) and Bauta had problems driving against Colorado simply because they were “forced” to pass after falling behind.  We note, prior to the UTSA game CSU had lost back-to-back heart breakers to Minnesota (20-23) and Colorado (24-27).  With the embarrassing loss versus Colorado, expect head coach Bobo of State to have his unit ready at home. CSU is 6-1 ATS laying double-digits and 8-3-1 ATS in non-conference battles.  After last week and this the home opener in beautiful Fort Collins…CSU 30 UTSA 17

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5* East Carolina (332) over NC State @ 12:00

Last season Brad Diamond Sports finished 22-13-1 in the famous Wise Guys’ Contest…63% ATS.  We have been the champion twice in our career which is quite an accomplishment when you consider the elite list of handicappers in the contest every season.  My best bet in the contest, if you missed it, was East Carolina noting line value and a reputable old system that projects out currently at 27-6 ATS.  Critical, NC State has had difficulties on grass of late going 1-7 ATS.  Also, the Wolfpack is 0-4 ATS off a SU win.  The Pack has averaged 6.9 wins per season over the last four campaigns and brings back 14 starters from a team that lost to UNC (you know many NCS fans are restless) in 2015, and no bowl game to boot.  ECU is an unknown quantity, somewhat, with new head coach Scottie Montgomery taking the reins.  Montgomery has coached both on the college and pro (Steelers DBC) level, but what I like most he was the OC at Marshall which is a school that normally produces diversified offenses.  To solidify our notes, no one should doubt the Pirates resolve today considering they have a senior quarterback Nelson (Rutgers transfer) leading the attack, while possessing more speed on defense.  ECU brings back 11 starters, but apparently with a more diversified attack, and a positive mindset behind Montgomery.  Remember both schools easily defeated FCS units last week.  We note the Pirates have been hot in Vegas when facing ACC types…6-0 ATS L6.  East Carolina leads the series 4-1 ATS…EAST CAROLINA+

5* MIAMI OHIO+ over Iowa

CFB LETDOWN THEORY OF THE WEEK

BDS

10* Ole Miss -7, not higher over Oklahoma State

Don't mean to raddle anyone, but this will be a close call from the spread standpoint. The Pokes are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in their last 5 bowl games dating back to 2010 all under the leadership of HC Mike Gundy.  As a 6-1/2 underdog they defeated Washington last year SU 30-22 in the Cactus Bowl..So, this is a step-up in class via the Sugar Bowl which is all SEC country.  Ole Miss recent taste of bowl action in the last three years..2-1 SU/ATS.  The 42-3 loss to TCU in Peach Bowl has the Hugh Freeze group sky high!  Only negative is their very best defensive player is out of the game as you know per the news releases recently.  The Rebs started strong 4-0 SU beating Alabama, but then lost on the road at Florida, Memphis(?), and Arkansas...Easily, the unit has an issue with focus. But, that will NOT be the case today knowing the opposing talent, the conference and the chance to pick up a DD win (9-3) season is a glaring issue.  The Rebs finished nicely beating and covering vs. LSU and Mississippi State...two hated rivals.  SEC BOWL FAVS show 4-0 ATS going into Saturday.  Oklahoma State (10-2) only lost two games, both at the end of the season to Baylor and Oklahoma.  The Pokes lead with their passing game QB Rudolph as the unit ended #10 in the NCAA throwing the pigskin.  The schools last played in 2010...Ole Miss 21-10.  For the Rebs to cover they will need their rushing attack to control the tempo and field position, and of course, the legs of QB Kelly will be needed. OKS is 2-7 ATS off a SU loss, 4-10 ATS after surrendering 450+ yards and 3-7 ATS off ATS loss.  The Rebs are 1-5 ATS off a SU win, but you can discount that item, considering the TCU debacle last season.  Ole Miss comes in 24-8 ATS non-conference, 3-0-1 ATS (January), 6-1-1 ATS at neutral sites and 4-1 ATS in BOWL games.  This should be a high scoring, as I remember the opening total was 67.  In closing, history has shown that teams relate more closely to current reality and for the Pokes losing BB conference game...ouch!  So, we are riding OLE MISS!

5* NORTHWESTERN +9 over Tennessee

The 'Cats come out of the surprising Big-10 with a 10-2 record, and the catalyst could have been the 40-10 loss to Iowa early.  Coach Fitz has done a great job, and stands to be the first coach in NW history to win 11 games.  The key for the Wildcats is their stingy defense, and with Vols inconsistent offense, I believe we have a great shot of not only covering but winning SU.  This situation means more to NW, so they will have the EMOTIONAL EDGE.  Also, UT is 1-7 ATS off a SU win of 20 plus.  Finally, the 'Cats show 4-1 ATS in bowl games...NORTHWESTERN.

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(241)  5* Air Force+ (8-5) over California (7-5) @ 2:00 Eastern

Armed Forces Bowl…BDS

Here we go, might type of football game a running unit (Air Force) vs. a passing attack (California).  Air Force came into the season with some high hopes, but key injuries (Romine) took their toll.  The Falcons went 3-3 SU in their early going, while the Golden Bears won their first 5 games.  After Air Force went on a nice winning streak in the MWC, but dropped a heart breaker in the championship game to San Diego State.  California after that perfect run fell off losing 4 straight games.  So, we find both units here in the Military Bowl.   Looking back, California destroyed San Diego State in September, but the Aztecs were somewhat flat after blowing out San Diego University.  Cal leads the all-time series 6-2 SU with Air Force 1-3 SU in the Military Bowl.  To win SU the Falcons will need to control the football throughout as the Golden Bears are 7-0 ATS when scoring 30 plus a game.  Still, the Cal defense is very forgiving as they given up at least 24 points a game in the majority (all but 2) games this season.  Cal comes 4-14 ATS on grass, the Falcons 6-1 ATS in non-conference games.  Finally, the Golden Bears a PERFECT 0-5 ATS vs. winning football teams…TAKE THE POINTS!

5* GEORGIA SOUTHERN +7-1/2 over Bowling Green

Yesterday we split out, because of the Temple debacle. However, we are using just one side in the Wednesday game plan for the bowl card.  Actually, I'm ticketing the school who I believe has the most dangerous  and under valued offense on the playing field in either bowl game today.  Take Georgia Southern to trade points with Bowling Green in a real nail bitter, and we thank the lines makers for the complimentary +7-1/2 to boot!  Good Luck!

4* Akron +7-1/2 over Utah State

Taking the value here with the number and the running game of the Zips.  Utah State seemingly in a home game scenario finished the season in a negative set, because thought after early success they could win their conference, not so!  Critical here for the traveling unit is their mindset, mindset and coach Holtz.  Akron finished 4-0 SU/ATS running for 229 yards in their last game vs. Kent. Granted UTS is a more difficult class of defense and will show up today, but they much mental to overcome based on recent results.  UTS is 3-7 ATS in non-conference game, while the Zips are 5-0 ATS L5 after holding an offense to under 100 yards on the ground...WIRE JOB!

10* Georgia State+ over San Jose State @ 7:00 Eastern

CURE BOWL...BDS

The first ever Cure Bowl has San Jose State (5-7) traveling a great distance.  SJU did defeat NMU last time out, but vs. other FBS units...a horrid 9-28 SU in the past.  GSU a starter program going back to 2010 finished the season on a 4-0 SU run.  And, they were very kind to their backers going 8-3-1 ATS.  Fundamentally, they average 6.3 yards per play.  Granted the Spartans come out of the MWC a more highly rated conference, but they did not fair well this season and seem to give up at the end of games...I doubt very much they are interested going to Florida around the holidays, despite the warm weather.  The EMOTIONAL EDGE here is all GEORGIA STATE...Look for an outright upset!

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3* Utah (204) over BYU @ 3:30

Normally, would not go after this type situation considering the overall coaching exodus at BYU with legendary Mendenhall and the OC going to Virginia…What does this tell the recruits for the Cougars?  Utah has not played well down the stretch losing some really tough games, being hurt by passing games (#96th YA) with tall and talented receivers just check out the numbers from the UCLA, USC and Arizona games.  The Utes too, like the Cougars have been hurt by injuries, however, each show 9-3 SU BYU with the more productive 8-4 ATS mark coming into the “Unholy War Bowl.”  The last meeting between these two was in 2013…@ Utah, Utes 20-13 winners…Utah has won 5-of-6 SU in the series.  Overall the series has been closely contested with 14 of the last 17 games decided by less than a touchdown.  This season when you check out PF/PA…very similar… The mental here because of the coaching changes for BYU favors the Utes…and SOS, FPI too…UTAH by 4.

5* New Mexico + (202) over Arzona @ 2:00 Eastern

College Bowl Game of the Week...Saturday

We clearly had a difficult choice between the Lobos and one other squad as our game of the week, however, I am sticking with the aforementioned considering they are at home will not give up even if behind in the 4th quarter.  As we enter another wacky bowl season, the public should be highly aware of the tendency to leap in the early sets to find themselves only behind when the more quality games come about.   Here the line came -11-/-1/2 or -11 to start, pending your outlet now down to -9 or -8 (Thursday) in most stores on the Strip.  Arizona (6-6) despite their 1-4 finish are the more talented unit and will have QB Solomon ready to start.  However, AU will be missing 4 starters and have injuries in depth positions coming into action.  On the other hand, NMU playing out of the MWC is lacking in SOS, has not played well historically vs. the PAC-12 (0-6) and have issues with special team units.  Granted this is much to swallow as a 5* selection, but NMU has the definitive EMOTIONAL EDGE considering how they played physically and mentally at the end of the season.  We especially, consider their ability to run the football and control the clock here. Arizona is 1-4 ATS in post season bowls, but 3-1 ATS recently laying singles.  Still, NMU will not give up and play this to the wire...TAKE THE POINTS!

5* Army+ over Navy

It's not often that I go against Navy, but this is is a great situation.  Just based on talent and offensive productivity it would be easy to pencil in the Middies.  Granted Army is in a long series losing streak, but in 3-of-4 the have been highy competitive losing by 7, 4 and 6.  Also, the current Navy players are aware of coaching changes, and have a bowl celebration locked up!  THIS IS THE BOWL GAME FOR  ARMY...The Cadets have cashed 3/4 in the series, and looking back face their highest priced ticket since 2007...+19-1/2...TAKE!

4* NTU -2 over ULM @ 3:30 Eastern

If the Miners circumvent their (-9.4) tendency to turnover the football they can take advantage of the ULM major losses on offense (Jones and Leftwich) to secure a SU and ATS victory.  Further, the Green are a solid 13-3 ATS at home versus a school with a losing road record, while the visiting Miners come in 1-10 ATS on turf.  Good Luck.