Interesting situation becomes playable when you have a non-Saturday game with a hefty points in a FBS battle.  State has sufficient offense to guarantee a few scores, while the Tigers maybe looking [ast this encounter at the road ahead. State shows 22-9 ATS in roadies, while Memphis is 2-5 ATS in non-conference affairs.  Good Luck.

3* Charlotte+ over ODU @ 4:00 Eastern

Both units come in banged up, while the day and time change has to be of some effect on the outcome.  Charlotte brings back 18 starters with two quarterbacks still battling out for the lead.  ODU shows 16 starters back without their starter from last season, and more importantly they lost key RB Lawry.  Charlotte has lost 45-9 to Appalachian State, but stopped Division II Fordham 34-10, whereas the Monarchs have lost BB games to Liberty (52-10) and FIU (28-20).  Last season, ODU at home beat Charlotte 6-0, as the visitor could not continue drives lacking a solid passing game.  The world be expecting the Monarchs coming off BB downers to respond in kind this afternoon.  However, Charlotte is more experienced this year and is playing with more tenaciousness than ODU.  Our early season power ratings have Charlotte at a plus 2-1/2 in value vs. ODU.  Good Luck with our Appreciation Thursday edition.

NO COMMENT, TRAVELING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DAY

NO COMMENT, TRAVELING FRIDAY NIGHT, SATURDAY DAY

4* Western Illinois over Illini

FCS over FBS with value as Illini looks to be a frustrated unit again this season.  Illinois was 2-10 last year and almost blew it in week #1 against Kent State in a 31-24 win.  Actually, Kent had a comfortable lead at half, but the Illini came back later for the win.  What most don't realize is that 5 players were suspended before the game, as coach Smith was highly dismayed.  Despite playing at home this week, they catch a fired up WIU unit looking to make this FBS struggle.

One of the media darlings this year in preseason (b/c of the coach) Coastal Carolina was defeated by the West last year 52-10. And, they are loaded once again.  Talented QB Sean McGuire brings back his 2,852 yards of offense making him the key bell weather for the team, along with a solid running game.  Also, the early pubs have Illinois down near the bottom of the Big Ten and start without an experienced quarterback.  In their last meeting the Illini during 2015 ran away from the West 44-0 but we expect this year's battle to be a highlight film. If new head coach Jared Elliot has calmed down and is able to focus for this instate rivalry, an outright win would be no surprise.  Good Luck.

3:30 Eastern

4* South Carolina+ (348) over Georgia

09/08 The second of three home games for the Gamecocks with no less the Georgia Bulldogs who went to the Championship game last year only to lose 26-23 versus Alabama. The 2017 South Carolina battle with Georgia saw the 'Dawgs winning 24-10 at home, their ninth straight win. Georgia took a 14-7 lead at half and never looked back with QB Fromm (16/22) throwing for two touches and 196 yards. In addition, the 'Dawgs were more effective in time (38:22 vs. 21:38) management, while accruing a 26-14 first down advantage. QB Bentley (227) of South Carolina struggled with two interceptions. This season Georgia does have talent on defense, but they have only 5 starters coming back. This is crucial in an early season REVENGE game for SC who needs to enhance their offensive productivity.   

Currently the line is Georgia -10 on the Las Vegas.  Over the last three seasons the ‘Dawgs have out gunned the Gamecocks 104-44, winning three straight games, covering two-of-three. SC covered last season grabbing 23-1/2 points.  Now the line has been adjusted accordingly with Georgia not the same unit on defense, while the Gamecocks have more offensive help.  SC must maintain a successful running game to stay within the number.  Also, South Carolina have gained support for their defense with Belk and Horn.  From the experience standpoint, they did play 16 frosh last week against Coastal Carolina.

Technically, in the series SC is 7-3-1 L11 ATS and 3-1-1 ATS at home.  Take the points with Gamecocks, but make sure you have +10.  Good Luck.

8:00 Eastern

4* Virginia Tech+ (219) over Florida State

 In this ACC opener we have the #19 and #20 ranked units out of the preseason rankings.  The difference just might be the Sems have the more prolific offense.  Florida State brings back 12 starters 8 on the offensive side of the ball.  They are currently ranked #77 in production starters returning. On the other hand, Tech visits carrying around 7 starters offensively with a #58 ranking in production starters. But, we note great support will come from starting QB Jackson who garnered 3,315 yards of total of offense with 60% completions last season.  The major concern is the defense which shows 7 new starters, and that will be the key factor in the game determining who wins and covers. The last meeting of the schools came in 2012 at Lane Stadium as the Sems won 28-22.  The Series Record has Florida State leading 23-12-1.  Important for FSU is the return of QB Francois, who was injured last year, looking for a consistent and healthy season.  Florida State has first-year HC Taggart prepping, so Virginia Tech picks up a slight edge on the sideline.   The home team has covered 4 straight in the series, but we’re not buying.  Recall Florida State is 0-6-2 ATS L8 conference games and 1-3-1 ATS L5 in the month of September.  Tech has always played well as a road dog, especially going back to Beamer Ball.  Also, in September the Hokies show 5-2 ATS L7.  Stay with Virginia Tech to make this a competitive game staying close in a hostile environment.  Good Luck.

Louisiana is 3-0 all-time in games played at AT&T Stadium with all three wins coming over teams ranked in the Top 25 (No. 18 Texas A&M, 2011 Cotton Bowl; No. 3 Oregon in 2011; No. 20 TCU in 2013).  In addition, they show 6-1 ATS L7 on the field, while the 'Canes come in a horrid 1-7 ATS at neutral sites.  Take the points tonight with the Tigers.  Good Luck.

7:00 PM

4* (178) Louisiana Tech over South Alabama

Last year these two schools started a back-to-back series with Louisiana Tech winning the initial battle 34-16.  This time around, we have a changing of the guard for South Alabama as they bring in new head coach Steve Campbell who has an FCS background. South Alabama, out of the lowest rated conference in the FBS, returns 14 starters with improved options on offense and on the defense side of the ball. In the 2017 Sun Belt, the Jags finished 4-8, while losing their last two games of the season.  In the C-USA, the Bulldogs finished 7-6 winning their fourth straight bowl game in head coach Skip Holtz’s 5th season.  With 15 starters returning and a qualified offense and the best defense Holtz has had since arriving on campus they have a great chance to reach the championship.  In their game last season, the Jags were hurt by an ineffective running game (98 yards) circumventing consistent drives. If Louisiana Tech controls the line of scrimmage they can cover with room to spare.  Some of the key edges have to be Holtz’s experience over Campbell’s enthusiasm, and the fact Tech plays three of their first four games on the road.  Therefore, we have a major “must win” situation for Holtz and his football team.  South Alabama will be improved this season but must back Tech who is 6-0 ATS versus the Sun Belt Conference.  Good Luck.

4* (246)  Rutgers over Texas State

This situation will be all about the Rutgers defense stopping the run and getting to the quarterback.  Coach Ash of the Scarlet Knights accrues a Big-10 level of personnel vs. the #9 rated conference (Sun Belt) in the FBS.  Also, the betting line has varied this week because of starting frosh QB Sitowski.  If he limits mistakes Rutgers will cover.  Remember, Texas State uses a dual-threat triple option offense which will call for the Knights to be athletic defensively, and that issue, again, has improved over last year.  Also, State was ranked #102 in total defense in 2017 and it won't help that face a Big-10 unit Saturday.  Rutgers began the last seasons in bad shape because they faced PAC-12 unit Washington.  With the Knights 5-2 ATS L7 times out, and 5-2 ATS during the month of September.  Opposing Texas State is 2-5 ATS in September and 2-5 ATS in non-conference.  Stay with Rutgers for a surprising up-tick win and cover.  Good Luck.

4* Central Florida+ over Auburn

CFB BOWL LETDOWN THEORY APPLIED

BDS

5* Mississippi St (258) over Louisville

Dan Mullen left and now the fiesty 'Dawgs must face Looie without QB Fitz who is out for the season. Let's look back at the season, MSU lost by 7 to Alabama, and Fitz only had 158 yards throwing.  It was the defense and running game that almost produced an upset in the 4th quarter.  They finished 8-4 on the season.  Looie won three straight at the end which included Kentucky.  However, they allowed 41 and 42 to Clemson and Wake this year.  QB Jackson (3,489) multi-talents ran for 1,433 yards but, this is an SEC defense that held running attacks to 127 yards a game. Believe you will see heavy early money on Looie, however, MSU is a tight bunch and will come to win this for Mullen. Remember, Looie is a horrific 1-6-1 ATS after winning by 20+ points.

224….10* San Diego State -6-1/2 over Army @ 3:30 Eastern

ARMED FORCES BOWL…BDS

Normally, at this time the year would not entertain go against a strong rushing unit such as Army but, they have a one-dimensional attack, and some of their wins were against deflated units.  The Cadets are 1-5 L6 versus the MWC.   And now they bring the #8 rushing defense in the country, leading RB Penny (2,027) and a solid four-game winning streak to their bright 10-2 season with losses to Fresno State and Boise State the best clubs in the conference.   So, I am not afraid to lay the small price considering SDS is 17-4-2 ATS after allowing under 100 yards rushing.  In closing, recall SDS beat Army 42-7 back in 2012, they once again have too many athletes for the opposition.  Good Luck.

Texas Tech should be another disinterested unit on Saturday...USF!

10* LA TECH+ POINTS vs. SMU...SMU playing in their last CFB Bowl going back in  2012. Since finishing 7-5 (#69 Power Scale), they appear to have an edge against LT who competed for 6-6 with a #69 Power Scale. Still must note their former HC Chad Morris left for the opening at Arkansas. The 'Stangs just 1-3-1 ATS outside of their home stadium and a horrid recent 1-5-1 ATS L7 in 2017. La Tech has had a nice 32-21 ATS record in bowl action L53 on the board, usually playing fairly well with a 4-1 ATS L5 vs. Bowl opponents. Critical, they are 12-5 L17 ATS as a Bowl dog. No doubt the 'Stangs have the talent edge but, may be faced with a disinterested unit. Good Luck.

5* Georgia +3 over Auburn

I'll take three any day in this series that has 5-2 ATS L7 meetings and the chalk comes 6-2 ATS to boot.  We know the Tigers CRUSHED Georgia 40-17 during November and beat Alabama in rousing fashion.  However, looking back at a tough facility Auburn did fall to LSU 27-23.  Prior to their blowout loss to Auburn, the 'Dawgs had won three straight in the series.  We believe they get back on track here as the War Eagles are caught celebrating 'Bama.  Good Luck.

4* IDAHO+ over Georgia State

The line has moved up this morning to +6-1/2 or +7 pending your outlet.  This has all transpired because of the quarterback injuries facing Idaho.  And we know this is a revenge game for State after being waxed last year 37-12 by Potato Heads.  Georgia shows in bowl position already so, that just might accrue enough emotional support for Idaho to stay under this number.  Remember, the Potato Heads are a remarkable 15-1 ATS in Conference Championship games.  Also, GSU is a perfect 0-5 ATS after surrendering less than 170 yards passing in their last game, and Idaho is 8-2 ATS after a SU loss.  Good Luck.

5* TCU+ 7-1/2 over Oklahoma @ 12:30 Eastern

BIG-12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

This is a major revenge situation for the Horned Frogs after being pasted 38-20 in their initial meeting with Oklahoma (11-1) this year.  However, for TCU that loss came right after an emotional 24-7 victory against "hated" Texas.  Against the Sooners, TCU fizzled in the first quarter and the Sooners never looked back with an easy win. RB Anderson sourced for 200 yards rushing.  Here we look for a MAJOR REVERSAL as the Horned Frogs have a solid 10-2 SU mark this season.  In four of the last five games with the Sooners, the final score has been decided by six points or less.  OU is 3-7 ATS L10 achieving over 450 total yards in their last game.  Also, the Sooners show 1-7 ATS at neutral sites.  TCU on a solid run of 4-0 ATS on turf and will come to play "early" here to offset the OU emotion.  Good Luck.

4* South Carolina+ over Clemson @ 7:30 Eastern

CFB Series Reverse Angle...BDS

The people down in Gamecock country won't forget the 56-7 loss last year to the Tigers. This time around, though, the showdown is in South Carolina under the lights with a national audience taking in the festive event.  SC shows 8-3 with a ranking of #24, while the Tigers field at #4. We do note Clemson is in line for the College Football Playoffs if, all goes well.  They do have the #4 rated strength of schedule this season.  Technically, the Gamecocks have covered 5 straight at home in the series, 8-2 ATS overall against the ACC.  Clemson, despite their lofty value, show 5-11 ATS in November and 2-5 ATS against winning home units.  In closing, SC will give a great fight but, the Clemson SOS will pay off late in the game with a SU win still, TAKE THE POINTS!

3* Minnesota+ over Wisconsin

CFB Fan Appreciation Side...BDS

Again cashed our Appreciation move yesterday with Baylor over TCU.  This afternoon we have undefeated Wisconsin (11-0) traveling to Minnesota (5-6) after back-to-back DD wins at home against conference rivals Iowa and Michigan. Obviously, the Badgers are the far superior unit and have won 13 straight games vs. the Golden Gophers. Also, the current line posted above -18, we expect it to move to -19 or higher by game time...VALUE!  Yes, quite possibly a letdown in some phases of the game, accruing the home unit a rare cover in the series.   Remember, Minnesota is 22-8 ATS L30 in the month of November, and 6-3-1 ATS L10 overall.  Good Luck.

112517

5* Auburn+ (226) over Alabama @ 3:30 Eastern

CFB Game of the Week…BDS

Here we go with another Iron Bowl war between two old-time SEC rivals from Alabama. At this writing, the Crimson Tide are favored -4-1/2 over Auburn, with the line opening around -3 at different spots on the Strip.  The last three games in the series have seen the Crimson Tide win by a total of 114-69, 30-12 last year at home.  But, hold on now the Tigers this season have played the #5 schedule based on the difficulty of the opponent….’Bama is at #26.  Also, Auburn will move the ball offensively against Nick Saban’s defense, and we just might see an outright upset Saturday.  Remember, Alabama is 1-4 ATS L5 in SEC games, 0-2 ATS L2.  Granted Auburn is lacking at home going 2-5 ATS but, the Tigers show 6-1-1 ATS in the SEC and 4-1 ATS in November.  Make sure have at least a FG as we see a very close game down to the last minute.  Good Luck.

10* Tulane (203) over SMU @ 12:00 Eastern

CFB REVENGE GAME OF THE MONTH...BDS

Double Revenge for visiting Greenies after dropping a heartbreaking 35-31 decision LY at home.  This time around we find SMU 6-5 SU, Tulane 5-6 SU off BB SU wins.  Believe Tulane more positive mindset critical here in road outing.   The Greenies show 6-1 ATS at the Mustangs and 9-of-11 ATS on the road of late.   Further, they have a perfect tech 6-0 ATS after surrendering less than twenty points in the last game.   SMU comes 5-1 ATS at home but, 1-5 ATS in the conference and 4-9 ATS in the month of November.   With Tulane 5-2-1 ATS in conference L8, TAKE THE POINTS.

4* Texas -7 (142) over Texas Tech

A 5-6 Tech unit visits a 6-5 Texas club down Austin on senior night.  Tech started the season 4-1 SU but, has obviously decayed.  The Longhorns are on a solid 3-1 run after winning at West Virginia last week SU.  Texas leads the recent series ATS 6-1 with the chalk 5-2 ATS.  The Longhorns have the edge in SOS rated around #9 at most outlets.  Granted Texas has a banged up OL but, meshed well in key down and distance situations at WVU. Remember on defense they held both #4 Oklahoma and #19 Oklahoma State to season lows in yardage.  The 'Horns have the #2 rushing defense in the conference which will force Tech into throwing all night into some negative situations.  No doubt Tech has one of the highest rated offenses in the Big-12 but can't expect them to score 37 and 45 (2015 and 2016) against this Texas defense.  The Longhorns show a solid 7-2-1 ATS L10, 3-1-1 ATS at home.  In closing, Tech is a horrid 1-5 ATS in Big-12 games.  Good Luck.

3* (115) Baylor+ over TCU

Our appreciation offering yesterday, of course, won with the Vikings in a close call.  Here one-win Baylor tries to circumvent the conference title driven Horned Frogs on their home field.  Granted TCU has covered 5 straight in the series has the domination edges at many positions but, it appears it's the "spot" the sporting community may overplay.  And, that's even considering the Baylor 2017 issues, and bringing a frosh QB to the starting lineup.  No matter, this old-time traditional battle usually brings the unexpected, and we know the UNDERDOG is 6-0 ATS in the series.  TCU shows 2-11 ATS at home 1-5 ATS off a SU win.  TAKE THE POINTS!

4* NEVADA+ over San Diego State

CFB Reverse Angle of the Week...BDS

Right now SDS is rolling with an 8-2 mark at home vs. 2-8 Nevada. However, some strange techs surface in this heated rivalry.  First off, this is double revenge for Nevada, and they have gone 8-2-1 ATS during the month of November.  SDS has a winning record ATS in 2017 but, they show 1-4 ATS in home games.  Overall, they have covered just four times in the last thirteen on this field.  Overall, SDS has won back-to-back games by a total of 82-14, and they just might have somewhat of a letdown here.  TAKE THE POINTS!

LATE MONEY MOVE...BDS

5* UNLV (4-6) +2-1/2 over New Mexico (3-7)

Clearly, UNM is on a massive losing streak, while the Rebs have at least won 2-of-3 SU.  Also, the differential in the Fresno State games for each tells us a more definitive story. Also, the Rebs have covered five straight on the road and their getting points as a plus.  Recently, they have been playing much better off an SU loss at 4-1 ATS.  UNM has even played poorly in Vegas against losing teams with a 4-9 ATS mark.  Finally, they show 8-23 ATS after surrendering more than 450 yards in their last game.  In the series, UNLV has covered 5-of-7.  TAKE THE POINTS!

10* Mississippi State+ over Alabama

CFB UPSET OF THE MONTH...BDS

10* AUBURN+ over Georgia

SEC GAME OF THE YEAR..BDS

Realize the Bulldogs are on a roll but, they could be looking down the road at a bigger game on deck.  However, the Tigers can match up in most situations on both sides of the ball.  So, with the home team 8-2 ATS in the series, we look for the OUTRIGHT UPSET.

Play on: 5* Cincinnati+3 (120) over Temple @ 7:00 Eastern (Friday)

College Friday Night Eastern Edge….BDS

This is a huge situation for each club if they expect a bowl invite. Temple is coming off a win against Navy as an underdog, while the Bearcats rebound off an underdog SU win over Tulane. The Owls have beaten the Bearcats in back-to-back games, so this is a special double revenge scenario for Cincinnati on their home field. With Temple being inconsistent on defense the ‘Cats actually have a solid chance to win this SU.  Remember, the Owls are 0-4 ATS off a SU win, while the ‘Cats are 9-2 ATS against a losing football team, and now we’re accruing line value with the public laying into Temple.  Take the points.  Good Luck.

10* TCU....(382 over Texas

This is a 4-4 'Horns unit going up against the high flying Frogs from TCU who just happen to be one of the best teams in the country.  Laying -6-1/2?  TCU is 4-1 ATS, 4-1 ATS in November and 5-1 ATS off an ATS loss. Texas shows 1-5 ATS in November and 1-4 ATS off a loss of 20+ points.  TCU has covered 4-of-5 in the series...BLOWOUT!

10* Maryland -3, not higher over Rutgers

One of the keys here is the changing home field from the last time they met.  How many fans will be present for the inconsistent Knights?  The Terps are 5-2 ATS against losing teams, while the road unit is 4-1 ATS in the series. Plus, since achieving bowl status last season with the help of a soft schedule, Maryland has played the second-toughest schedule in the nation thus far as its first eight opponents are a combined 32-14. The Terrapins are on pace to play the toughest schedule in the nation by season's end, as its 12 opponents are a combined 53-24. Good Luck.

Play on:  4* Navy -7 (313) over Temple

Revenge...key motivational tool for the Middies as they come into Philly looking to avenge a 34-10 loss to the Owls in the conference championship game.  Plus, the Middies lost three critical games at the end of last season to LT, Army and the aforesaid Owls which should have the visitor ready physically and emotionally.

NAVY EDGES:

ROAD UNIT 4-0 ATS IN THE SERIES

DOG 4-1 ATS (SERIES)

10-3 ATS IN NOVEMBER

STATS...

376.1: Average yards per game rushing by Navy, which is No. 1 in the country.

20.9: Average points per game by Temple which is last in the AAC and 112th nationally.

 49.5: The third-down conversion percentage of Navy, which is No. 1 in the AAC and No. 6 in the nation. By comparison, Temple’s conversion percentage is 40.5, eighth in the AAC and 59th nationally.

4* UL-Monroe (165) over Idaho (H) @ 5:00 Eastern

Double Revenge series scenario for the visiting Warhawks (3-4, 4-3 ATS) in another smashing Sun Belt game versus home standing Idaho (2-5, 3-3-1 ATS).  Despite a home situation, really can't trust the emotionally drained Potato Heads who were just CRUSHED by Missouri 68-21. Sometimes it's very difficult for a defense to rebound in a must-win situation.  ULM is the #33 rated offense in the nation this season and can produce a 500+ total yardage outing here.  ULM is 5-1 ATS on the road and 4-1 ATS on turf.  And, after gaining 200+ yards on the ground they come in 4-1 ATS. Although, Idaho is at home and brings consistent numbers ATS in the conference, seemingly the Warhawks have the "critical" emotional edge Saturday.  Good Luck.

3* Louisiana Tech (175) over Rice (H) @ 3:30 Eastern

The Bulldogs show off BB disturbing losses to Southern Miss and UAB by an overall total of 8 points, now 3-4 on the season.  Rice 1-6 is at home after five straight losses to UTSA, Army, Pittsburgh, FIU and Houston by a combined point-differential of 88 points an average of 17.6 points per game.  Last year, although with a stronger unit it was Louisiana 61-16 over Rice, as the winner gained a total of 735 yards overall, 301 rushing all on their home field.  The Owls despite their record have improved somewhat in 2017 but, lack the offense to pull the upset or sufficient firepower to cover the number on their home field.  Rice is dead last in NCAA offenses securing 11 points a game and that's against the #104 rated schedule in 2017.  They are 1-4 ATS on turf (their home field), while Tech shows 4-1 ATS L5 vs. losing units and 15-3 ATS after allowing 280+ yards through the air. Good Luck.

4* West Va+ over Oklahoma State @ 12:00 Eastern

6-1 Pokes show up in West Virginia after beating Texas 13-10 down in Austin, while the 5-2 Mounties also arrive off a win 38-36 over Baylor at Waco. Last year Oklahoma State at home beat the Mounties 37-20 accruing a yardage advantage of 421-358.  Granted the Pokes have the talent advantage but, show 1-4 ATS L5 in the conference. Believe the inconsistent West Virginia defense will play their best game of the year, gaining an ATS win and maybe an outright win for the home crowd.  Good Luck.

4* Oregon State+ (110) over Stanford @ 9:00 Eastern

Stanford (5-2) travels to Oregon State (1-6) for a Thursday night Pac-12 and ESPN affair.  The Cardinal have won seven straight in the series, 6-1 ATS.  Last year Stanford won at home 26-15.  This time around Stanford is in the midst of a four-game winning streak against Oregon, Utah, Arizona State and UCLA.  Whereas, the Beavers have lost five straight to Colorado, Southern California, Washington, Washington State and Minnesota.  The Cardinal possesses the edges on offense and defense, Points for and Points against.  Classic RB Love (1,387, 11) should be ready for tonight, while Oregon State will look to replacement QB Garretson (114.3) continuing on the uptick. Starter QB Luton has been out with an injury.  From the emotional standpoint, this should be a challenging spot for Stanford who has a MAJOR REVENGE game with Washington State on-deck.  Also, in these short week starts, the home team accrues somewhat of an edge and the Beavers show off a bye.  Technically, the Cardinals have illustrated much success this year but, show 2-5 ATS after allowing 20+ points.  Oregon State is 4-1 ATS in Thursday calls, 9-3 ATS in conference and 7-3 ATS at home.  We’ll take a ticket with the Beavers to keep this close.

10* (411) Colorado +11 over Washington State @ 10:45 Eastern

Last week Washington State (6-1) was flying high going into the Cal game but, came away with a 38-3 loss.  Now the Cougars set up at home to play hard trying Colorado (4-3). The Cougars are 5-0 SU at home this season and the world is expecting a large rebound.  Colorado surely does not have the defensive talent of the Bears so, we expect a combined higher scoring game this afternoon.  Another question for State is, will QB Faulk comeback from a five-interception game, being sacked nine times?  Granted Colorado has given up 35.5 points per game this season, winning last time over Oregon State by 3. The Buffs were rebounding from three straight losses, the last two heart stoppers, 27-23 to UCLA and 45-42 to Arizona. The key for the visitor will be TOP which is critical keeping the Cougars offense off the field.  If the Buffs running attack continues to improve we should have a nail-bitter here.  Also, QB Montez of Colorado has been successful with his conservative passing game not throwing an INT in 95 attempts.  Staying away from the turnover is critical for the visitor.  Recall last year Colorado defeated Washington 38-24.  Trending we find Colorado 6-1 ATS L7 road games vs. a home unit with a winning record and 7-2 ATS on the road L9.  Washington State fields with a 1-4 ATS mark in October and 2-5 ATS record against a winning team.  In the series, the UNDERDOG is 5-2 ATS.  Good Luck.

102017

4* (384) UCLA -6 (H) over Oregon @ 4:00 Eastern

Oregon will be without QB Justin Herbert on Saturday afternoon out in Los Angeles, and that should be the demise of the Ducks this afternoon.  The offense overall has floundered since his injury.   Last week Oregon (4-3) was crushed by Stanford (5-2) 49-7. The Ducks come in 1-3 SU L4.  The frustrated Bruins show at home 3-3 overall, 1-3 SU L4.  Clearly, UCLA has the edge in strength of schedule but, must turnaround a six-game losing streak to the Ducks dating back to 2007.  They have a HUGE edge at quarterback with Josh Rosen (392.3) but, must stay away from the turnover bug (15, L6 games) to be successful both SU and ATS.  On defense, that’s another story for a Mora coached unit allowing 40.5 points per game.  However, Oregon has a very young team especially on defense and we believe they will not illustrate consistent pressure against UCLA QB Rosen.  Granted there are trending numbers favoring Oregon but, without the ability to control TOP we’ll take the Bruins.  The Ducks show 2-7-1 ATS on the road L10.  Good Luck.

4* UCONN+ (318) over Tulsa @ 12:00 Eastern

As you know we used UCONN as a major play on this site last week. Here we catch the Huskies at home, while being booked as the underdog(?). For decades in College Football there has been a noted negative losing pattern of major proportions when schools from the South or Southeast region come East booked as the favorite.  Tulsa is 0-3 SU on the road this season, and show off an upset win over Houston.  UConn cashed last week down in Philly when they defeated Temple in an AAC game.  The Huskies actually have a viable chance of running the football Saturday against a Tulsa rush defense (dead last nationally) that is hurting at the line of scrimmage. Also, UCONN has a major edge in senior starters 15-10. From the trending standpoint, Tulsa is a perfect 0-6 ATS after allowing less than 20-points in their last game.  Good Luck.

3* Louisville +6-1/2, prefer 7....over Florida State

CFB Fan Appreciation Saturday Special...BDS

Sorry, no analysis appreciation moves

102017

5* Middle Tennessee State+ (310) over Marshall @ 7:00 Eastern

Our C-USA Game of the Week has 5-1 Marshall visiting 3-4 MTS.  Despite, the change in quarterback (Stockstill injured) to young Urzua, the Blue Raiders attack is holding well and playing more efficiently at home.  Actually, MTS seems to be in a qualifying spot with this a huge revenge game after being crushed last year and showing now 4-0 ATS off a SU loss.  Also, Marshall maybe somewhat overvalued nationally as the Blue Raiders have faced a more challenging schedule.  In closing, we’ll back the home team that clearly has the emotional edge, while covering four straight in the series.  Good Luck.

#1 nationally in 2017

10-0 perfect run in College Football

12-1 L13 selections overall

15-1 in the NHL L16

4* LSU (208) +7-1/2 over Auburn

Over the years LSU has been a very dangerous team in Death Valley when they appear to be overmatched. Visiting Auburn is 5-1 vs. LSU's 4-2 record.  Key...the ability of the LSU defense to circumvent the Auburn running which is their most important offensive cog. Recently, the LSU OC has brought back the old jet sweep which has helped the attack.  Because Auburn's defense has a tendency to overact we think LSU can produce more than expected offensively. Overall, this should be a defensive struggle and a close game. The home team in the series is 7-1 ATS, while LSU has covered 4-of-5 in the series.  Good Luck.

4* (155) Florida State -7 over Duke

Difficult game for the struggling 1-3 Sems but, can't trust Devils who are off back-to-back losses. Florida State has the major edge at the line of scrimmage with their tenacious athletic defense, and remember State is a desperate unit. Both units have key injuries, Sems a little more attrition but, they have more depth.  FSU is 19-0 SU in the series winning by double-digits in all.  Duke (4-2) has lost back-to-back games after starting with four straight wins.  Realize this is huge game for the Devils but, trust Sems personality and talent especially, if QB Jones plays a conservative game and stay away from key turnovers in positive field position.  FSU has covered 5 straight in this building. Good Luck.  

5* (317) Eastern Michigan+ over Toledo @ 12:00 Eastern

Normally, would never go against the Rockets at home against a lesser foe but, their defense is dropped to #95 in total defense nationally.  So, despite EMUs frustrations this season, they should get under the number and challenge Toledo SU.  EMU is 12-3-1 ATS on the road and 8-1 ATS against .500+ units. Toledo on a recent down at home is 0-5 ATS in Vegas.

4* Arkansas State (301) over Georgia Southern @ 8:00 Eastern

A Decent number for State to lay on the road considering they are just 1-2 SU with the only win over Arkansas-Bluff.  In 2016, Arkansas State at home survived 27-26 against Southern.  Where they major change here is on offense where State has become more of a passing with QB Hansen (10/2) throwing for 985 yards and 69% completions.  Southern has new starter behind the center in QB Wertz (2/2) but, he has struggled to throw the football with just 230 yards in three games.  Also, on the playing field Arkansas State eleven senior starters to just four for Southern.  Overall, the visitor has too many weapons at this point in the season for Georgia Southern. Remember, State is 5-0 ATS off a bye week.  Good Luck.

5* (410) Stanford -7, nothing higher over UCLA @ 10:30 Eastern

CFB PAC-12 GAME OF THE WEEK...BDS

Power numbers give us the Cardinal tonight at home.   Granted they are 0-5 ATS vs. >.500 units and 0-4 ATS at home recently.  However, they show 11-3 ATS off a SU loss, and now we have "true" line value with the public taking down the early quote.  UCLA (4.2) has deficit running numbers compared to the Cardinal 7.5 yards per carry, which is a critical insight when evaluating "TOP."  Finally, "I could go on forever" the favorite in this series is hitting a red hot 78% against the number.  Buy at -7!  Good Luck!

4* Army (381) +3 over Tulane @ 12:00 Eastern

Would feel stronger about this situation if they were, obviously, playing back east....but, we still favor the Middies (2-1) who should control the line of scrimmage and the game clock.  Respect Tulane (1-2) who can score but, their defense should not have the long-term capabilities of shutting down their opposition.  Remember, is 5-1 ATS vs. the AAC and 8-2 ATS in the month of September.  The Greenies show with a horrendous 1-8 ATS home mark vs. winning road units.  Good Luck.

10* Louisville+ over Clemson @ 8:00 Eastern Saturday

CFB TOP UPSET ALERT....BDS

10* UMASS+ over Temple @ 7:00 Eastern

CFB EASTERN EDGE TOP PLAY...BDS

5* Auburn+ (377) over Clemson @ 7:00 Eastern

Brad Diamond's Famous SEC Game of the Week

This is game #2 of the season for these stellar programs out of the ACC and SEC.  Both schools won against smallish programs in week #1.  The defending national champions Clemson, though, have a huge hurdle to overcome Saturday, playing against a SEC unit without QB Deshaun Watson who has graduated to the NFL.  That's ground's enough for this handicapper to give Auburn a more than serious look, especially when you consider that today's visitor has dominated the series 33-14-2.  Clemson brings just 12 starters back, while Auburn has 15 in the fold. Clemson comes in winners of three straight in the series, which equates to a triple revenge scenario for Auburn and they're getting points!  And, we remind the public Auburn has covered 5-of-6 in non-conference games.  Good Luck.

Colorado over Colorado State

Surely, this spot points to line value for the Buffs, even though the Rams played last week.  Coach McIntyre has CU sky high for this date in Denver (neutral site) and he already stated that QB Montez is ready mentally and physically, despite being tagged as the starter for the season.  Remember, last year the kid played well in relief and had a massive game at Oregon. The talk is the Buffs lost too many starters on defense but, we disagree.  They have very talented replacements on defense and a huge OL that will fortify their crushing running attack.  The last time these two played the Buffs won 44-7. Look for a different type venue here with the Rams flashy QB and there ability to throw down the field.   Look for Colorado to dominate with their ball control offense frustrating the CSU defense, and keeping their offense off the field.  Technically, Colorado is 4-0 ATS in September and have covered the last 11-of-15 in the series.  State is 5-12 SU against the PAC-12.  Finally, believe there is a close game on deck but, we see Colorado winning by 7.  Good Luck.

Fla. Atlantic+ over Navy @ 8:00

Clearly, the "Trap Game" of the day in College Football.  First off, Navy comes in the more established program with a solid coach running the triple option.  FAU has some solid assets of their own with Lane Kiffin running the show.  He has picked up some HIGH-LEVEL talent to fortify the Owls program.  And, he now has another riverboat gambler in OC Kendal Briles.  So, we look for an uptick offensively. When looking at the returning starters from the production standpoint, FAU is ranked #8 on offense.  On defense, the production base of returning starters has an effective yield of 76%.  The Middies come in a huge favorite but, bring only a 32% production efficiency on offense. Their defense has a 53% production effectiveness, overall the squad is ranked just #103 in the nation.  This situation might surprise some but, I know Kiffin would like to start 2017 with a win.  For now, we'll just TAKE THE POINTS.

5* Florida over Iowa

Have great respect for Iowa program but, there is too much Gator speed and math applications that reflect a stronger positioning case for the favorite.  Would be, somewhat, conservative considering we cashed both 10* College moves on Saturday.  Good Luck!