12/24/14

5* Western Kentucky (218) over Central Michigan @ 12:00 Eastern   

Bahama Bowl Best

Most of you know our Annual 20* College Football Game of the Year was Western Kentucky over Army.  We’ve stayed close to the ‘Toppers this year simply because QB Doughty and company run a gun slingers offense.  With so much speed on the outside and the running and throwing abilities of Doughty the ‘Toppers even upset Marshall 67-66, a game we mistakenly stayed away from in these pages.  No matter, WKU has defeated Bowling Green, came close to defeating the Illini, defeated Army, Navy, UTEP and Old Dominion.  Central Michigan comes in 7-5 as does Western Kentucky.  The Chips have defeated Purdue, NIU and Miami Ohio. In the SOS rating systems most consider the ‘Toppers playing a more difficult schedule.  Believe me the fact that WKU beat Marshall sells me on this game.  Plus, the EMOTIONAL ANGLE is all Western Kentucky as in 2012 the Chips defeated their opposition (WKU) in the Little Caesars’ Bowl 24-21. Statistically, WKU is +5.0 vs Central’s +2.0 in the seasons overall net point differentials.  We note, the passing of WKU allows a huge advantage for the school down south.  Realize Central Michigan will be a much more physical defense, especially stopping the run. But, remember CMU is negative in the turnover factor which +WKU. The Chips were 2-4 ATS as an underdog this season.  Granted CMU comes in with some success in bowl games carrying 3-1-1 ATS record.  However, the Chips are 5-15-1 ATS vs. non-conference teams.  And, since this is being played on grass we have to mention the ‘Toppers are 14-3-1 ATS on that surface.  I believe you will see a wide open game with Western Kentucky winning by 7.

12/20/14

Play on:  10* (209) South Alabama -3 (not higher) over Bowling Green @ 9:15 Eastern

Site: Montgomery, Alabama

Camellia Bowl

This is the first ever Camellia Bowl and the first post season event for the Jags.  So without hesitation, I can estimate the EMOTIONAL ANGLE rests with the team from Alabama, especially since this is a “home” game for SA. Also, BG comes in off three straight losses. If you know how I think, it should register with you “that speed kills.”  On the playing field the Bowling Green defense can’t stay with the  South Alabama offense (6-6) on the edges.  This projects quick scoring drives for the Jags, while the Bowling Green (7-6) stogy offense will be unable to keep up for four quarters.  You see, the Falcons “D” is rated #106 in scoring defense.  And, #104 in defensive efficiency at (7.87)…By the way, that plays into a very decent ranking for SA at #56 with a +.01 in defensive efficiency. The big play maker for South Alabama is QB Brandon Bridge who is a senior and carries a 6-5 frame.  Bridge has thrown for over 1,600 yards this season with 14 touches.  Controlling the youngster will cause huge problems for that BG defense…JAGS ROLL!

12/20/14

Play on:  4* Utah (205) over Colorado State @ 3:30 Eastern

Las Vegas Bowl

Site:  Las Vegas, Nevada

This is a strange game right from the start as these two played in the same conference for 57 years.  Utah #23 leads the all-time series 55-22-2. The Rams show with the better record 10-2 SU, while Utah played the more difficult schedule 8-4 SU coming into the Saturday battle.  Utah has won 10-of-11 SU in bowl action.  The key emotional angle in the game goes against Colorado State as HC McElwain accepted a big time position in the SEC with Florida…. Offensively, the Rams took off in McElwain's system as quarterback Grayson, wide receiver Higgins and RB Hart (‘Bama transfer) paced an attack that drove the offense to almost 500 yards a game #12 in the nation.  That’s good news for OC Baldwin who will run the team until a new coach is available. In this situation CSU OC will be calling plays from sideline, instead of from the press box.  There is a major difference in responsibility as the HC on the field tasks are more complicated adding additional pressure to the overall staff.  The Utah defense (#72) has the complex job of stopping the diversified Rams offense.  But, the Utes have held a much higher level of opponent to 26.2 points per game, and 403 yards on average. So when you place records into the cue Utah possesses a strength advantage defensively.  Plus they have a super RB in Devonte Booker who garnered 1,350 yards rushing and 9 touches. And, with the Utah defense having the edge at the line of scrimmage (#1 Sacks), the CSU chances of winning SU are slim.  In fact, the Rams defense allowed a 100+ yard rusher in all of their games.  Believe you will see Wilson and Booker control the clock reducing the amount of positions for the Rams offense.  At this write the line is -3 in favor of Utah. This season the key wins for Utah were against Michigan, UCLA, Oregon State, Stanford, USC and Colorado...In those games Utah went 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS. Their four losses were against Washington State, Arizona, Arizona State and Oregon.  In the last eight meetings Utah has covered 7 games.  Plus Utah is 36-17-2 ATS in non-conference games.  We know CSU is 9-1 ATS off a SU loss, but the Utes show with a solid 8-2 ATS mark vs. winning teams and 7-2 ATS in bowl...UTAH 36 Colorado State 24.

3* Ohio State over Wisconsin

Make sure you have +4 or +4-1/2 in this encounter. Note, we have great respect for Wisconsin going in, but the talent on-hand with Ohio State is more advanced with the exception at the quarterback position.  Look, these are common opponents, and Urban Meyer (10-0 ATS Underdog) in this underdog role is unbeatable. Ohio State in the series is 5-1-1 ATS with the dog 3-0-1 ATS. Finally, on neutral sites Wisconsin is 1-5 ATS.

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Play on: 4* Georgia Tech+ (126) over Florida State @ 8:00 Eastern

ACC GAME OF THE WEEK

The way Tech can win this SU is utilizing their magic playbook being run by red shirt soph QB Justin Thomas who has been on fire of late.  Thomas has burned the opposing defenses for 2,321 yards running and passing with an amazing 21 touches going into action on Saturday.  Tech has the right mindset on offense to really hurt the Sems, as they run the football for 334 yards per game.  The highly rated Florida State defense has been hit hard this year, and you can tell by the overall scores.   Their defense is giving up 22+ points per game and 371+ yards per game.  Although the defense of Florida State has +23 takeaways, they fall short offensively with their offensive unit allowing 17 sacks.  But, we know FSUs offense has a habit out playing their defensive issues by scoring 45 points per game behind 430+ yards of offense. In the series Tech has covered 4 in a row, including their 2012 ACC TITLE GAME when FSU survived laying -14, 21-15. The last time Tech defeated Florida State was in 2009 when Tech won SU 49-44 as a three-point underdog.  The psychology of the game sets up well for Georgia Tech as Florida State is still undefeated with some of their players talking out loud about going undefeated.  With all the changes and the movement in the PLAYOFF four best, the heat is on Florida State, not Tech.  For the ATS cover we know Florida State is 3-10 ATS L13 times out and 3-9 ATS off a SU win.  The Sems are 0-3-2 ATS L5 in the series with the UNDERDOG 3-0-2 ATS.  Tech has covered 5 straight games, 4 straight in conference.  In an outright war, take Georgia Tech 35-34.

Play on:  10* (117) KANSAS STATE +7 over Baylor….7:45 Eastern

COLLEGE REVENGE GAME OF THE YEAR

BDS

The line opened -9 or -9-1/2 favoring the home standing Bears.  Baylor is trying to garner a Playoff berth, while usurping the position of TCU in the Final Four.  No matter the health of QB Petty, this is a BIG GAME for Kansas State (9-2) head coach Bill Snyder and represents DOUBLE REVENGE.  Not only are we catching line value, but we have the emotional angle riding high.  We note, if QB Petty starts for Baylor, and it is well known prior to game time, expect the line to move up favoring Baylor.  Last year the Bears lost 35-25, while in 2012 the score was 52-24.  In 2011 Kansas State won 36-35 at Manhattan.   Okay we realize the Bears (10-1) are ranked #4 in total offense blowing out almost 49.8 points per game.  Kansas State is ranked #12 in total defense holding down the opposing offenses to 20.3 points per game.  The Wildcats are averaging 36.6 points per game with the Bears defense is a decent sort holding opponents to 23.9 points per game.  The UNDERDOG has covered 4 straight in the series with KSU being 4-1 ATS L5.  Plus, the Wildcats are 6-1 ATS off a SU win and 21-6 ATS vs. a >.500+ unit. TAKE THE POINTS!

5* TCU -33, -33-1/2 over Iowa StateCFB GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

Always leery when laying this type enhanced number.  But, the HORNED FROGS are getting healthy for this home game knowing Playoff ratings are at hand...We fully expect TCU to cover in this situation very easily, considering they will be sky high. From a state of Iowa newspaper:

"A win over Iowa State may not be enough for fourth-ranked Texas Christian.

The Horned Frogs will have to do it with style.

A dominating, leave-no-doubt win for host Texas Christian during this Saturday's 11 a.m. game against the Cyclones could help land the Horned Frogs in this season's College Football Playoff.

I can't illustrate this too much, don't think the Horned Frogs will be flat."

Statistically, the Cyclones have HUGE ISSUES on defense, their rushing defense allows 5.7 yards game...WHY WOULD YOU EVER USE YOUR PASSING GAMES? The Iowa State's RD is ranked #119.  The passing "D" is just as bad #88 giving up 260.6 yards per game.  So we add this technical note, IOWA STATE is 0-7 ATS after giving up more than 280 yards passing.  Further, the Cyclones are ranked #119 (5.7 yards per game) in rushing defense.  Obviously, the MAJOR WEAKNESS for Iowa State on defense.  Recall TCU is 7-0 ATS L7 home and 11-2 ATS L13 overall.

(121) 10* Louisiana Tech +12-1/2 over Marshall

As you know the two teams out of the south that I love are Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech.  Tech paid dividends for us last week, and we missed using the ‘Toppers in that 67-66 win.  Clearly, is seems that the lines makers are making mistakes with the numbers concerning second level BCS types. Here is no change as the line opened -14 and -14-1/2 favoring high flying Marshall.  Our ratings have Marshall at -8 or -8-1/2.  So we have a play AUTOMATICALLY because of the net point differential.  Now you add in the fine spread record by the Bulldogs in road shows 20-7 ATS, our basis for winning is enhanced.  Plus Tech is 4-0 ATS vs. a unit with a winning mark. Finally, we have the Bulldogs hot in conference with a 4-1 ATS record…TAKE THE POINTS!

Don't forget to purchase our 3-DAY packages and save money inside our all-sports agenda.

Auburn has been down on defense, while sitting at #111th in penalties allowed. Auburn allows 3.9 yards per carry vs. opposing offenses and 142+ yards rushing per game.This is in contrast to 'Bama's "D" which is #6 in total defense holding opponents to 85.3 yards per game rushing. They've limited teams to under 15 points per game. Our point is, how can QB Marshall dent the Alabama defense with an offense that has committed costly mistakes and turnovers in key situations this season?  Auburn does run for 266 yards per game and 35 points per outing. But, Auburn has yet to meet a talented defense as powerful as Nick Saban brings to the football field every week.  The tradition of game came full circle last year when Auburn defeated Alabama and then went on to play in the championship game vs. Florida State.  This year the Nick Saban coached 'Bama changes places in history with Auburn winning here by a 36-20 score, while staying #1 in the polls.

5* Maryland over Rutgers @ 3:30 Eastern

These two do not like each other, and despite other reports we will see the Turtles ROLL BIG TIME Saturday.  No doubt Rutgers has been the SU/ATS leader in the series, but they show 1-8 ATS in the month of NOVEMBER and 1-4 ATS on grass surfaces.  In addition, when we look at these type RIVALRY GAMES we key in on defense.  The Rutgers edition is allowing 30 points per game...while the Terps have played a tougher SOS. In closing I would look for a wide open game with MD winning out.

FREE TOTAL:

GO OVER with Maryland and Rutgers.

10* UCLA over Stanford

You can take my analysis from our FREE PICK on the Bruins last week and apply it here.  UCLA (9-2) is simply too offensive for Stanford (6-5) in what should be a high scoring game. Yes, we know Stanford has won 6 straight in the series, but again they (Stanford) are over their heads here. The Bruins have distinct yardage edge, plus they show with the key turnover advantage. Stanford comes 4-0 ATS in November with the chalk 5-1 ATS in the series.  Finally, the Cards after a big win last week are 0-6 ATS after a SU win.

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Play on:  5* Hawaii (210) over UNLV @ 11:00 Eastern

Looking at injury report this morning and checking the wire QB Decker is listed as probable, and most likely will play Saturday night for UNLV (2-9).  He is banged up though, and that’s encouraging for us as UNLV is offensively challenged.  Remember Decker, though, has 10 touches, but 15 interceptions which kills his QBR. But, UNLVs major weakness is defense as they are ranked #123 overall in total defense allowing 513.0 yards per game and 278.5 yards per game on the ground.  They have been a disaster on the score sheet surrendering 37.6 points on average.  The Rainbow Warriors (3-8) went out on the road last week and won over San Jose State 13-0 (first shutout since 2005).  UNLV hits the island Saturday on an 0-4 run SU, they were purged by BYU 42-23.  In the overall series with Hawaii the Rebels are 9-14 SU.  UNLV stopped the Rainbow Warriors 39-37 last year, so this sets up a REVENGE game for Hawaii. The ‘Bows have a very competitive defense ranked #59 nationally, holding the opposition to 26.0 points per game.  The Rebels show on a 0-6 SU streak on the road, while going 16-43-4 ATS on the road.  UNLV is 1-6 ATS vs. Hawaii.  Granted this is a tough number to lay, but Hawaii shows in a positive mindset with RB Isoefa now a viable offensive alternative.  Also, there is special incentive for the Hawaii football team as their program is suffering from the financial standpoint, and would go away if interest in football is not revived…Good Luck!

10* Baylor -28 over Oklahoma State

I am inserting this with the line -28 -28-1/2, make sure you can buy a 1/2 point considering what the aforementioned line states. In this battle we have suffering Oklahoma State with injured QB, have the bottom rated offense in the conference, and they're trying to stay up with the Bears?? Baylor is #1 in total offense shooting 585 yards a game at the opposing defenses, and 51-points per game.  Oklahoma State is on a 4 game losing streak and they've looked bad overall. Granted they have covered 7-of-8 in the series, but the home team is 4-0 ATS. Overall at home Baylor is a sensational 23-4 ATS, Oklahoma State is 0-5 ATS and 0-7 ATS vs. a >.500+ team.

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Play on:  4* California+ (184) over Stanford @ 4:00 Eastern

College Football Upset

Spending more time in the PAC-12 because of the fallout in many SEC programs this year.  As we write our findings have California and Stanford 5-5 SU on the season.  Stanford is 1-3 SU on the road, while California is 2-3 SU at home.  The Cardinal has lost to Southern California, Notre Dame, Arizona State, Oregon and Utah this season.  California has been defeated by Arizona, Washington, UCLA, Oregon and Southern California.  Stanford is on a perfect 0-5 ATS run on the road. Cal has covered 7-of-10 ATS and 6-of-7 ATS this as an underdog.  Remember the kids from Palo Alto have controlled this series with hated California, so the home standing BEARS have major REVENGE Saturday….GL

5* North Carolina+ over Duke @ 7:30 Eastern (Thursday)

We are inserting this early on Monday, but our analysis will follow by Tuesday night. So, please check back. Thank you for your patience.

BDS

5* LSU -1 over Arkansas

CFB LINE VALUE EDITION

BDS

We waited a little too long to play this as the public money shown earlier this week has evaporated.  At this time STRENGTH DOLLARS are showing from ALL the sharps on the Tigers. We mentioned in our USA interview this week that QB Harris will be taking snaps under center during certain down and distance situations. Because of his agility who will give the depleted Arkansas defense headaches. HC Miles realizes he didn't vie for the SEC title this year, because once again LSU does not have a 5* QB on the roaster. Mettenberger was a Georgia recruit.  It's been years since we've seen this type signal-caller in Baton Rouge. Technically, in this type situation, MILES is 21-1 SU!

111514

Play on: 5* UL-Monroe+ over UL-Lafayette @ 7:00 Eastern

CFB GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS…

Saturday we are looking to stay away from as much of the marquee games as possible.  So, when we opened the stat sheet and looked at SOS with an underdog scenario in mind, we found a unit that is truly flying under the radar this week.  Down in Louisiana football is the sport of choice, carrying a solid fan base from all levels of academia.  In the five years during the tenure of HC Todd Berry the Warhawks of ULM of gone 1-4 SU in the series with ULL, 1-6 SU since 2008.  The majority of games have been very close, so you can imagine why we have chosen this situation for our clients.  ULL comes in 6-3 SU & 5-4 ATS currently riding a 5 game winning streak.  They are coming off a 44-16 destruction on the road versus New Mexico State last Saturday.  ULM shows 3-6 SU & 3-5-1 ATS hitting the field Saturday after losing a heart breaker at talented Appalachian State 31-29.  That was in the second of BB road games, prior they dropped a hard fought battle with A&M 21-16.  Six of the nine games played by ULM this season have been very close.  ULM has lost 5 straight games.  In this series the UNDERDOG has covered 6 straight (15-2 ATS L17).  The opposing ‘Cajuns are 1-8 ATS vs. a unit with a

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Play on:  5* Tennessee (336) over Kentucky @ 4:00 Eastern

SEC GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

This week we have 5-5 Kentucky vs. 4-5 Tennessee down in Knoxville Saturday afternoon.  The Vols show off a bye, while the Wildcats attempt to rebound from a 63-31 loss at home to Georgia.  The major question is how will KU respond with their bowl hopes gone considering they have Tennessee and Louisville next to finish the season. Kentucky is 6-17 ATS in SEC games and 0-6 ATS in November. Tennessee owns this series and now catches the Wildcats on a four game losing streak.  If UT wins they have Missouri and Vanderbilt to finish which would qualify for a minor bowl at 7-5 SU.  Tennessee has cashed 7-of-9 ATS in Knoxville, while the chalk is 5-1 ATS in the series…TENNESSEE!

10* Temple+12 over Penn State

CFB EASTERN EDGE GAME OF THE MONTH

BDS

Play on: 20* Western Kentucky -8 ½ (330) over Army @ 12:00 Eastern

COLLEGE GAME OF THE YEAR

We know Army (3-6) is coming off a solid 35-21 over Connecticut last week, while WK (4-5) handled UTEP 35-27.  The Cadets looked improved against the Huskies as the finally ended their three game skid.  Army has lost every road game this year.  The Army offense dictates tempo with their rushing #5 nationally, almost 300 yards per game.  One of key psychological edges for the Cadets is their triple-option attack, as not many in the south use such an attack.  Army, though, rarely throws the football, so if can establish a solid defensive game plan, you have a great shot at defeating the aggressive system.  Where Army really suffers is on defense as they allow almost 33 points per game and well over 400 yards in offense.  Opposing Western Kentucky is the opposite breed from the offensive standpoint focusing primarily on the passing game, averaging 40 points per game.  They are currently rated #2 in the NCAA from the passing yardage standpoint @ 371 yards a game.  QB Doughty is the real deal and has accrued 3,300+ yards throwing down the field.  He’s hit on 28 touches with a 67% passing accuracy. Where the Hilltoppers have problems is on defense as they show way down the rankings giving up almost 42 points per game.  Still, the real issues inside the game for West Point is being on the road where they have suffered at 6-20 ATS of late.  In what most likely be a high scoring shootout, Army simply can’t score quick enough to stay with the Hilltoppers.  WK is 13-6 ATS versus losing teams…Western Kentucky 45 Army 27

Play on:  4* Cincinnati+1-1/2 over East Carolina @ 7:00 Eastern

CFB LINE VALUE KEY BEST

BDS

The 6-2 Pirates of ECU face the 5-3 Bearcats of Cincinnati on Thursday night in game we feel there has been much line value found in the post for the home team Cincinnati.  The recharged Bearcats changed character midway through season showing off easy wins over South Florida and Tulane, while chasing Memphis for the top spot in the AAC.  Fortunately, for ECU they come in off a bye week losing to Temple on the road prior.  I had a chance to take in the whole Temple game, and believe me the Pirates looked flat (5 fumbles) and inconsistent. Actually, prior to the Temple loss the Pirates were ranked??   The Pirates have the #8 rated defense limiting foes to 339 total yards a game, 23 points per.  Offensively ranked #26 accruing 550 yards per game, while averaging 35.0 points per.   On the other hand, Cincinnati comes in very competitive #70 in total defense (476) allowing 29.8 ppg.  Offensively, the Bearcats are ranked #76 (466) averaging 34.8 points per game.  Clearly, if ECU is to win QB Carden will need to return to form after the Temple debacle.  Carden has a solid receiving group with RBs Hairston and Allen (605) carrying the ground arsenal.  The key for Cincinnati is the quarterback position as stellar Gunner Kiel did not look strong in the Tulane game, as Legaux came in hitting 3 touches to pick up a big win. The home team is 7-1 ATS in series with Cincinnati 4-0 ATS L4 here.  TAKE THE POINTS!

4* Utah+ (194) over Oregon @10:00 Eastern

WISE GUYS BEST BET

This is a rebound effort for us as last week we dropped a rough outing with ND’s special teams and rushing defense going to sleep late in the game.  Here I have great respect for the Oregon program.  In fact, in our early season interviews we projected the Ducks as one of the units in the College Championship game.  Honestly, I don’t know if they’ll get that far because the Utes being at home with their defense have a shot SU of winning the whole game.  Oregon shows 8-1, while opposing Utah hits the field with a solid 6-2 mark. Both teams have covered 4 straight in conference, while Utah is 7-0 vs. winning units.  Finally, we’ll back the Utes who are 17-8 ATS off a SU loss. 

10* Arizona -17 over Colorado

COLLEGE CONFERENCE BLOWOUT GOY

Write-up Pending

BDS...

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5* TCU over Kansas State @ 7:30 Eastern

COLLEGE GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS…

One issue that is easily solved the Horned Frogs (7-1) actually accrue line value Saturday with the “public” affection for head coach Bill Snyder of Kansas State.  After eight games on the schedule this is only the third road outing for the Wildcats (7-1).  For TCU they show off a road win non-cover at Morgantown.  For this handicapper, it projects added value here as the confidence level for TCU should now be at an all-time high under head coach Gary Patterson. And, they are successful even though they lost senior quarterback Matt Joeckel for the season.  QB Trevone Byokin is a super athlete, but was inconsistent last week at WVU.  In that game the Horned Frogs scored the last ten points to secure a heart pumping victory.  We note, the Mounties sored one of their touches via a fumble recovery.  If TCU is to win and cover they will need a perfect game caring for the football.  Understand this is a hostile environment for KSU and represents a playoff game on its own.  TCU has derived a major edge playing this in Fort Worth.   Last week Kanas State easily handled the defense less and turnover prone Oklahoma State unit 48-14 for their 5 straight win.  Coach Snyder’s club lives off their defense #16 overall #9 stopping the run. The TCU win last week runs their streak to three after losing at Baylor. Kansas State’s only loss was to Auburn.  The Horned Frogs strength is offense with their 500+ yards a game and the #6 ranked passing attack nationally.  They are #2 in points scored! Defensively, KSU has an edge possessing the Big-12 best defense, but the Horned Frogs are #1 nationally in turnovers earned with +15. DOUBLE REVENGE…Coach Patterson is 0-2 vs. his former alma mater Kansas State.  TCU has covered 6 straight at home and 9-of-10 ATS overall. TCU 7-3 ATS B/4 BB road games. We realize the Wildcats are 20-5-1 ATS vs. winning units, but this is being played at TCU who has the EMOTIONAL EDGE.  Remember, this is a PROGRAM GAME for the Horned Frogs who came over from the MWC.  Interesting the only loss by TCU this season was to Baylor, but the Bears lost to like kind West Va. in Morgantown 41-27.  I believe based on the current facts and circumstances TCU has the edge…39-24.

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Play on:  10* Iowa +1 (123) over Minnesota @ 12:00 Eastern

Here we have two teams with 6-2 records fighting to achieve a seed in the BIG-10 Championship game. In preseason most experts had the Golden Gophers down the list in the West Division of the conference.  However, they come in off a BYE week with a 3-1 SU record in the BIG-10. Before losing a heart breaker to the Illini, Minnesota had won 4 straight.  MU is 5-0 SU this season at home.  They are actually tied with Iowa in the division.  The Hawkeyes show off a 48-7 crusher of the Wildcats of NW after a BYE.  Iowa has won the L2 in the Minnesota series in a convincing way 23-7 and 31-13.  This season Iowa has really improved on offense as last weeks’ crusher would indicate bullying the Wildcats, and now they average almost 30 points a game coming into action Saturday afternoon.   The Hawkeyes have improved over their 2013 edition in scoring defense holding the opposition to 20-points per game, ranked #14 limiting offenses to only 323 yards per game.  Minnesota shows listed as the #10 rated offense in the BIG-10 not in the country, clarifying.  Their key on offense is senior RB Cobb who has crossed the goal line 7 times carrying 1,000+ yards.  On defense, MU is listed as the #40 unit in scoring defense giving up only 22.2 points per game.  Yes, these two are very similar, but the value in the game has gone to IOWA from the line standpoint as the visitor opened as a -2 favorite, but the public domain has bought out the price to a “Pick.”  We know that Minny does not play well SU & ATS b/4 Ohio State (next).  We’re not projecting a look ahead because of the nature of this game.  Since Minnesota has not lost at home have the sharps and the public over played the Gophers situation?  In the series, Iowa has covered 13-of-19 in Vegas.  Iowa has not only covered 8-of-9 on the road, but 6 straight on the road vs. a winning home unit.  So, coach Ferentz and company will be prepared to take home the cash in a series Iowa leads of late with a 10-3 SU record.  Remember if Iowa becomes the UNDERDOG the line value generates a stronger position for us…Good Luck.

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4* (108) Ball State+ (3-5) over Northern Illinois (6-2) @ 8:00 Eastern

CFB MAC KEY BEST BET

BDS

Here is a MAC encounter which appears to have two teams in different mind sets.  The Huskies are a solid 6-2 with suffering BSU 3-5.  The NIU offense stats out 100+ yards a game better than the Cardinals.  They show ranked #33 in overall offense, while BSU shows at #101.  NIU has the most dynamic all purpose threat on the field in sophomore QB Hare who has over 1,800 yards of offense with 16 touches. He was handed the lead role on offense in late September.  LY NIU picked up a 48-24 win over Ball State, but the Cardinals played well for three quarters only to collapse late. Going in BSU had won 7 straight games. The Cardinals have lost 5 straight in the series, so this is a MAJOR REVENGE.  Remember NIU is 0-6 ATS in the MAC with BSU 9-3 ATS off a week of rest.  BSU coach Pete Lembo is 28-18 coming into action and fields a unit that won 10 games last year, so don't discount the abilities of the Cardinals.

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Play on:  5* Notre Dame (311) over Navy @ 8:00 Eastern

COLLEGE GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

Well if the Irish would have won last week over Florida State (27-31) this selection would have no validity.  Instead we have Notre Dame coming in off a heart breaking loss going on the road to face up-start Navy.  The Middies show off wins over VMI 51-14 and San Jose State 31-14, not elite competition. Prior they had lost three straight vs. Rutgers, Air Force and Western Kentucky, not a Class A unit to be found.  They do have classy QB Keenan Reynolds leading the way, but the ND defense has faced better this season.  On the other side of the ball, the Irish offense should have a big day passing behind QB Golson throwing to WR Fuller against a Navy secondary that is not of division one quality.  Overall their defense is ranked #85 allowing 27.6 points per game. With the game being played at FedEx Field the balance of student body and general fans should have strong east coast support for ND. Techs show ND 5-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games. With this being considered a home game for Navy we note the Middies are 0-6 ATS vs. a winning road unit.  Plus, the “road” team is 16-3 ATS in the series, while ND has taken 4-of-5 vs. Navy.

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Play on:  10* KANSAS ST. (368) over Oklahoma State

CFB REVENGE GOY

BDS

Kansas State has won 4 straight after losing that home affair against highly ranked Auburn.  KSU is now rated #11 when they face arch-rival Oklahoma State on Saturday night.  This is a MUST WIN for the Wildcats if they want to secure the Big-12 Conference title.  Kansas State is undefeated in conference.  Last time KSU handled Texas easily 23-0.  At one time Oklahoma State had won 5 straight games, but then faltered badly to West Virginia and TCU. Oklahoma State has won 5-of-7 SU in the series.  Statistically in the BIG-12 these two are closely valued with OKS averaging 30.2 points per game, while allowing 28 points per game.  KSU is averaging 36.9 points per game, allowing 19.3 points per game.  As you can imagine the KSU real strength is on defense as they shutout Texas last week and held one of the nation’s most powerful teams, Auburn, to 14 points.  Their key has been stopping the run holding the opposition to under 100 yards a game.  The Oklahoma State weaknesses of running the football and pass defense should do them in here. The Wildcats are a PERFECT 10-0 ATS off a Big-12 game vs. a unit off back-to-back SU losses.  Whereas, Oklahoma State is 1-5 ATS in the series with KSU coming in on 4 game ATS winning streak…KANSAS STATE!

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Play on:  5* Arkansas+ over Mississippi State @ 7:15 Eastern

SEC GAME OF THE WEEK

As our SEC special last week, we cashed Kentucky over MSU (7-0) catching that ½ point cover. We look to do the same on Saturday night when the ‘Hogs visit Starkville.   Talent wise the Bulldogs have the most edges, except when Arkansas has the ball on offense in running situations. That huge offensive line should help mitigate the blitzes favored by HC Mullen. You can go back to last season and that 24-17 win in OT by the Bulldogs as the ‘Hogs had chances to win in the 4th quarter, but failed to convert. That’s indicative of the type of resolve Arkansas will come to play with on Saturday night.  This current spot authors Arkansas (4-4) in a double revenge situation.  No doubt the ‘Hogs have defensive issues, but they had those negatives when they lost to Alabama 14-13.  We note Arkansas played ‘Bama off a bye week.  Granted the overall situational angle here is complex with ‘Hogs aching for a win in the SEC as they show 0-16 SU, 6-10 ATS in the league.  The obvious techs have MSU 10-2 ATS in the series with the home team 5-0 ATS…Granted the ‘Hogs have had issues with the Bulldogs.  But, hold on MSU has Alabama and Mississippi on the road to test their quest for an undefeated season.  My thoughts here are in a “MOTO” construct, as the Bulldogs fully expect to win based on their series history with only UT Martin up next.  Arkansas is 15-6 ATS in the month of November and 7-1 L8 vs. a winning football team. As long as we are catching that ½-point again I’m staying on the ‘Hogs to pull a major surprise.

10* Auburn +1-1/2 or +2 over Ole Miss

CFB FALSE FAVORITE SMASH

BDS....Please grab this quickly as the line is melting as we write!

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5* Louisiana Tech -7 (352) over Western Kentucky @ 3:00 Eastern

Everyone knows I follow the Louisiana schools closely in all sports.  When Skip Holtz took over the coaching job at Louisiana Tech, my interest started to really peak.  However, LY they finished 4-8 behind the young mentor, though, have since been breathing fire against the opposition with 5-3 record in 2014.  Western Kentucky, as you know, is another unit that we track closely.  This season they have helped us cash both ATS and Total tickets, but coming into Saturday they are just 3-4 SU.  WK has an inconsistent offensive line, slightly under the talent at LT.  But, Looie has played stiffer competition and show with 18 juniors and seniors in starting positions.  Both units have strong passing attacks (finesse types), but there is a major difference statistically when the defenses are assessed.  LT has the #50 rated defense overall in the NCAA holding the opponents to 25.9 average points per game.  Considering their opposition this season allowing only 350 yards per game on average is super.  Here is where Western Kentucky loses their shirt…eh..eh jersey’s as they allow 549 yards defensively ranking #115 nationally.  Their points deficit averages 41.1 points per game…The line opened around -5, -5 ½ and has now shot up to -7 ½.  WK is 1-5 ATS off a SU win and show at 1-3 SU in roadies.  LT is 6-2 ATS L8 and 16-7-1 ATS vs.

3* Georgia Southern over Troy

CFB EARLY MOTO THURSDAY

BDS

3* Michigan State over Michigan

CFB EARLY MOTO PLAY

I will return later with our MOTO GAME OF THE YEAR! We are 1-0 with our games of the year in college football this season (10* CFB Washington Line Mismatch GOY).

5* Kentucky +15 over Miss. State

SEC GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

10* Central Michigan over Buffalo

MAC GAME OF THE MONTH

BDS

Note, our 10* selections are RED HOT at 6-0!

4* Arkansas over UAB

CFB BOUNCE BACK SPECIAL

BDS

10* Rice over North Texas

CFB MOTO GOY

BDS

5* Oregon over Call

PAC-12 GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

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5* Central Michigan (338) over Ball State @ 3:30 Eastern

COLLEGE GAME OF THE WEEK…5-2

Last week we stayed away from the Chips (4-3) since they were playing out Northern Illinois and their vaunted offense.  Instead we used Western Michigan on the money line and took home the cash.  Here we will use CMU who has an improved offense going against the hard trying unit from Ball State who shows 1-5 SU.  Remember we told you the Chips were a team to be aware of considering they are coming a 6-6 season bringing back 19 starters.  Ball State started 2014 with only 11 starters.  In fact the Cardinals have come down hard since their heroics from last season.  They are 0-3 SU on the road, while going 0-2 SU in conference.  Ball State when in a road setting is allowing 28 points per game.  This weakness we fully expect the Chips to exploit with their improved attack.  The series techs do favor the visitor, but CMU is on a  4-0 ATS run against losing teams and 6-1 ATS in conference.  In addition, CMU is 37-17-2 ATS off an ATS win…CHIPS 27 BALL STATE 17

4* New Mexico +9 or +9 1/2 over AirForce

BDS

10* UMASS -14 over Eastern Michigan

EASTERN EDGE GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

10* OREGON STATE+ 3 or higher over Utah

Held this out assuming the late money would come to the Utes, not so!

Both clubs 4-1 with Utah having the more effective rushing attack, but

the passing game of the Beavers will help PULL THE UPSET or take this to

the wire. That's why +3 or 3 1/2 makes our club a TOP PLAY. 

In addition, both units  need the game, so the home field becomes more of a factor

Utah was just 9-18 in conference going into this season, so we feel they are over valued!

Play on:  5* Arizona+ 3 (168) over Southern California @ 10:30

COLLEGE GAME OF THE WEEK (Notre Dame last week)

Realize the public domain will be knee jerking to Southern California who is off a SU and ATS loss to Arizona State, while ‘Zona shows off a MAJOR UPSET of Oregon 31-24.  I had the displeasure of seeing the Oregon and Arizona game, and realized the public will look to go against Arizona here assuming a letdown.  But, we note the Wildcats have an additional day of preparation off their Thursday win (Oregon).  The extra rest helps mitigate the depressive syndrome off an emotional effort.

Arizona entered the 2014 off an 8-5 record with just 13 starters, figuring to be maybe #3 or #4 in the PAC-12 South.  Instead they are 5-0 SU and 2-4 ATS coming in at the top of the South Division.  Talented Southern California is 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS after being crushed by Arizona State.  We told most who would listen that the Trojans were going into a strong technical box vs. ASU, but the Sun Devils not only covered they won SU 38-34 on the final play of the game.  If any unit is going to be flat here, it is the Hollywood Trojans.

Looking back, on the road USC lost to Boston College, but upset Stanford.  In the Cardinal game the Trojans were the underdog. Here they are the favorite?  The Trojans do possess a 1.8 point per game advantage in average scoring differentials (defense vs. offense).  The Trojans have the more prolific defense, ‘Zona the better offense.  Last year USC defeated Arizona 38-31, so we have REVENGE a situation for the surprising ‘Cats.  In that 38-31 encounter the Trojans led 28-10 at half and coasted the rest of the way.  USC QB Cody Kessler had a huge first-half, so look for Rich Rod to come up with a gimmick defense to shrink the passing angles for the talented junior.

USC leads the series 28-8 with a split in their last two games, and possesses a +9 in the turnover column.  If Arizona is to win this SU, they will need to score early building a lead, while refraining from the critical TO angle.  Being at home is a huge ADVANTAGE, along with revenge with USC showing off a heart breaker last week.  Arizona is 7-2 ATS in the series covering the last 3-of-4 at home.  Critical:  The UNDERDOG is 8-1 ATS in the series…GRAB THE POINTS (+3) EARLY!

10* Air Force +7 1/2 or 8 over UTAH STATE

Note:  Please play this selection as early as possible, because

they are generating many tickets Friday evening on the Falcons.

CFB LETDOWN THEORY TOP PLAY

BDS

5* Arkansas +9 over Alabama

SEC GAME OF THE WEEK

With dubious weather conditions expected try and play this

early on Saturday morning to insure you have the whole

number per the above...Good Luck

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Play on: 10* Washington (169) over California @ 6:00

CFB LINE MISMATCH OF THE YEAR

Wake up public here comes the high flying Golden Bear passing game looking to defeat pesky Washington. Technically, the major issue for California backers is the “loss of value”  as they opened -1 sitting  at -4 ½ on Friday afternoon.  The Bears show 4-1 SU & ATS off an “upset” win over Washington State 60-59.  Believe the line assertions have been dedicated by that win.  Cal is #1 in scoring within the PAC-12 and 4th in total yardage.  Washington comes in off a bye (major edge) 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS.  The defensive key for the Huskies “D” is slowing QB Goff of California as he hung 5 touches on Washington State with 527 yards to compliment the result. With all the chatter about the Cal offense, we note they have a porous defense ranked ####119 in total defense (40.4 ppg, 464 ypg).  Washington has played some close games this year and I gained much respect for them inside the Stanford road game despite the SU loss. The Huskies come in shooting 33.0 points per game, while allowing 24.2 points per on defense.  As far as the EMOTIONAL match-up the situation actually favors Washington with additional rest (7-0 ATS vs. PAC-12) and the Bears coming off that heart pumping win. Techs give clear guidance as the Bears are a horrible 4-13 ATS in the PAC-12 combing with a 3-13 ATS record at home.  Washington shows 4-1 ATS in the series with a nice support tech inside the series as the UNDERDOG is 4-1 ATS.

4* MICHIGAN STATE -21 (not higher) over Purdue

Last week in these pages we plucked out the 'Due as a MAJOR TOP PLAY and they covered giving us a 3-0 SWEEP with our TRIPLE CROWN PACKAGE (10-1). We noticed how vulnerable the Illini defense was to the running game (349) which eventually allowed QB Appleby (Purdue) to throw 15-20 lighting up the seams of the Illinois secondary. When you look back at the schedule you can calculate how Western Kentucky (one of the teams we follow closely) ate up the Illinois defense, along with Washington and Texas State (another school we follow closely). On the other hand, Purdue's defense is rated #101 allowing 28 ppg. illustrating how their lack of talent will show against quality opponents.

Michigan State held on last week to beat Nebraska 27-22 as the 'Huskers scored 19 points in the fourth quarter to make it close, including a 62-yard punt return for a TD. However, MSU held Nebraska to under 100 yards rushing. Remember the Spartans are the #13 rated unit in total defense.  Look for a big win by MSU.

CFB LATE MONEY MOVE

10* Kentucky+ over South Carolina

SEC GAME OF THE MONTH

4* Kansas State over Texas Tech

CFB SATURDAY NIGHT LIGHTS

BDS

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Play on: 10* UAB +9 ½ over Western Kentucky @ 7:00

Alabama Birmingham comes in 2-2 SU & ATS, while Western shows with the same mark 2-2 SU & ATS.  In their last outing the Blazers were 14+ point favorites over FIU, only to lose SU 34-20. WKU comes in after UPSETTING Navy 36-27 as a 7+ point underdog. Navy gave up 2 turnovers one went for a 40+ yard TD interception by the Hilltoppers late in the 4th quarter.  UAB out gained FIU by almost 100 yards, but lost the game because of two interceptions for touches.  You can bet here the Blazers will focus on the running attack trying to wear down the athletic Hilltoppers. Western Kentucky is ranked #109 in rushing defense relinquishing 238 yards per game. No doubt UABs defense will be tested against the #4 rated offense, but if they use their ball control tactics they will shorten up the game, while keeping the score down…UAB+

Play on:  4* Northwestern+ (346) over Wisconsin @ 3:30

Last week we took a look at the Wildcats against the Nittany Lions, but backed off unfortunately.  Northwestern came up big as 29-6 winners (11-point underdog).  It was the first win at Penn State going back to 2004.  The back breaker for Penn State was a fourth quarter interception by NW that was returned for a TD.  In addition, NW completely shut down the Penn State running attack holding them to 50 yards on the day.  One thing is for sure the Wildcats defense will face a much more talented offense from Wisconsin.  The 17th rated Badgers stopped USF last week 27-10 after being tied 3-3 at half-time.  Wisconsin rushed for 294 yards and possessed the ball for slightly more than a half (31.42 TOP edge) which transferred into 26-8 first down edge.

Wisconsin is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS, while the Wildcats show 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS. The Badgers returned 10 starters, NW 17 starters.  Northwestern has won three straight at home against the more talented Badgers.  At this point of the season, our power ratings indicate Wisky being somewhat overrated and Northwestern underrated. For the Wildcats to win they MUST stop RB Gordon or they will not only lose, but fail to cover the number.  Still, we do have MASSIVE EDGES technically for NW as the home team in the series is 10-1 ATS, with the Badgers 0-6 ATS at Northwestern. We close with Wisconsin currently on a 1-6 ATS roll in Vegas.  Can’t help but, TAKE THE POINTS!

5* Notre Dame +2 over Stanford

This is a great situation, making sure you have +2, as some places are showing 1-1/2. Note, the line opened actually ND -1, but the sharps in Vegas reversed the number with overnight wagering Sunday through Monday. Recall this is a HUGE GAME for the IRISH! They want to be a MAJOR PLAYER in the recruiting ratings, hanging tough now, this win would serve notice that ND is back! Notre Dame is at home with the better QB, while Stanford shows off a draining win at Washington and now must travel to South Bend...EMOTIONAL EDGE:  Notre Dame has covered 4 straight vs. the Pac-12 and 4 straight in the month of October. Plus the Irish are 1-4 SU L5 in the series, so pay backs are on-deck for the Irish.  Stanford travels with a 1-4 mark after holding their most recent opponent to 20 or less points, 2-5 vs. a winning team. Finally we know the Cardinal has the documented edge on defense, but the home field and ND offense should take home a close victory..Good Luck.

100414

Play on:  3* (342) North Carolina +2 over Virginia Tech @ 12:30

CFB EARLY CALL

We have gone 4-1 ATS this college season with our early calls at Brad Diamond Sports. Here is a home dog in a solid position to grab the cash.   UNC has strange records of 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS.  Wins have been against FCS Liberty and San Diego State.  The losses were a little rough 70-41 vs. ECU and 50-35 last week to Clemson.  Virginia Tech who was highly touted this campaign marks the calendar with a 3-2 SU record, 2-3 ATS in Vegas.  The wins came against William & Mary, Ohio State and Western Michigan.  The Gobblers are 1-3 ATS as a chalk. 

In the 50-35 loss to East Carolina, the Tar Heels only lost the yardage battle by 50 yards, if they didn’t fall behind 22-7 at the half, they may have had enough energy to make it a closer game. Remember UNC brought back 15 starters from a 7-6 team, and does possess sufficient talent to challenge any team on their schedule.  Although I will note the Heels have ND up next at South Bend.  Virginia Tech is coming off a home coming win over Western Michigan 35-17 laying 21. The Gobblers had a 9 minute edge in TOP. Plus a 255 yardage advantage. But, recall Va. Tech DID NOT COVER.  Last year Tech defeated the Tar Heels 27-17 in Blacksburg.  The Gobblers got off to a quick HT lead of 21-7 and then hung on for the victory.  Still, Tech had just 48 yards rushing, 1.4 ypc…The Tar Heels had some key opportunities on offense, but came up short.  Overall, the game changed on three turnovers by North Carolina.

Interesting spread numbers show Tech 0-10-1 ATS vs. a unit w/revenge off a SU loss.  And, 3-11 ATS in road games.  Further the Gobblers are 8-20 ATS off a SU win and 1-5 ATS in conference.  Aspiring UNC has much road to cover against athletic Va. Tech, but the Heels are 10-4 ATS off a SU loss and 17-5 ATS at home against a unit with a losing road mark.  In closing, we find UNC 8-0 ATS vs. a conference foe when booked as a HOME DOG after a DD SU loss…UNC!

5* Florida+ over Tennessee

SEC GAME OF THE WEEK

10* PURDUE+ over Illini

BIG-10 SU UNDERDOG WINNER

BDS

4* UTAH STATE+ 2-1/2 over BYU

4* Oregon over Arizona

CFB SMASH MOUTH WINNER

BDS

3* FAU

First off the line value is the reason for the play along with the FAU road ATS successes. In addition, we have FIU playing a light schedule this year, but they upset UAB last time catching doubles. Obviously, the reason for -9 1/2 opener. FAU has played a stronger schedule and has been really challenged on both sides of the ball. I am keeping this at a 3* simply because of the site...Good Luck!

10* Texas State +3 or higher...over Tulsa

TSU a very under valued unit should win this SU as

they play into 33-9 tech system..Good Luck

P.S. Buy early!

092714

Play on:  4* UL-Monroe (194) over Troy @ 7:00 E

CFB KEY BEST BET 

We cashed another 10* last week going against a team from Loooisiana as the Bulldogs beat LSU 34-29.  Here we are backing a smaller school (ULM) with the more effective offense 15 starters returning from a 6-6 season. Troy BB 12 starters from a 6-6 team, but has 56 letters starting the season.  UL-Monroe goes into action Saturday 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS with wins over Wake Forest and Idaho.  Troy shows 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS being mauled by Georgia 66-0 last time. Their three loses had a net advantage of 121 points!  On offense ULM averages 18.3 points per game, while Troy comes in at 15.5 ppg.   Total defensive edge goes to ULM who has held the opposition to 24 ppg. with Troy coming in 48+ points.  However, we note Troy has played a tougher schedule vs. UAB, Duke and Georgia.  Still they rank #123 allowing almost 500 yards a game which really kills them when not in possession of the football.  The Warhawks have won three straight with a net 56 point edge all as UNDERDOGS. There is a slight ATS psychological edge for Troy as they are the underdog this time around.  Troy is 3-7-2 ATS in conference.  With the favorite in the series changing to ULM, I’ll make this a 4* unit play. Remember the week of rest for ULM is huge!

If the line drops look harder at ULM!

092714

Play on:  10* Southern Miss +8 ½ over Rice @ 7:00

This game took at -10 earlier in the week, but the sharps bought back to +8 ½ as I write overnight. Remember Southern Miss is a program that validated their work in 2011 with a 12-2 SU finish with 49-28 win over Houston in the CSA Championship game as +13 underdog. SM comes in this season off a 1-23 run SU, but they started 8 true frosh last year.  SM is 2-2 SU this season with wins over Alcon State and Appalachian State. The Golden Eagles were also blown out by Alabama (12-52) and Mississippi State (0-49).  The greater the competition, the more difficult the task for a program looking to regain status in the south.  Key this season will be the improvement of the offense by OC Lindsey who came from Auburn. The Golden Eagles are averaging 14.8 ppg., but two SEC games killed their production.  As most know there has been a change-over in the program since Todd Monken took the helm as the head coach.

Rice after winning the C-USA last season with a 10-4 record; has not won a game this year at 0-3 SU.  They have lost to quality opponents Notre Dame and Texas A&M, but lost to over valued ODU last week. Friday night ODU was destroyed by MTS 41-28. A technical note, Rice is 1-7 ATS after allowing 35+ in their last game.  The Owls return 12 starters from that team, and lead the SM series 3-1 SU. The Rice offense is balanced, but their running game (4.5) is where SM defense needs to focus. The weakness for Rice is their defense that allowed 43.7 ppg, and just as important a 528 yards per game deficit.  Clearly, this is where, I believe that weakness will allow the SM offense to come alive against the weak Rice defense. Critical this week will be the play of QB Nick Mullens, who started to play at SM as a true frosh last year.  He threw two INT’S last week vs. APst in the 21-20 win over the now FBS school.  Actually, Mullens was directly responsible for the win, though, as he accrued 268 yards through the air.  So, if the Golden Eagles fall behind Saturday they have the ability to at least buy-in for the back door cover.  Any help out of the so-so running game will add to the probability of this call. We note Rice is not Alabama or Mississippi State. Both of SM wins were at home this season. In closing, HC David Bailiff (8th season) will need to generate a fire under the Golden Eagles for a SU win here, but the points are the definitive value considering SM is 8-2-1 ATS off a SU win…Good Luck

5* Washington +7 1/2 over Stanford

PAC-12 GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

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Play on: 3* Temple -4 ½ over UConn

CFB EARLY CALL

BDS

The Huskies come in 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS after falling at South Florida both SU & ATS last Thursday.  SF had a 35 play advantage on offense, while UCONN was 0-9 in third down situations.  After the Temple game the Huskies have a week off before they travel to Tulane.  The Philly Owls show at 2-1 SU and ATS after smashing FCS Delaware State 59-0. Their only loss was to Navy in Philadelphia 31-24.  There are two major factors which led me to Temple, the early public domain moving on UConn (-6-to-4-1/2) who has lost their starting quarterback Cochran.  Plus, in the UCONN 28-21 win over Temple in 2013 the Owls blew a 21-0 lead with the key play a P. J. Walker (Temple) interception for a TD by the Huskies.  So, our 2nd key angle is MAJOR REVENGE for Temple.  By the way, TU also has an open date on the agenda. We know the UNDERDOG has been the play in the series, but the Cochran injury has us looking to reverse that trend.

4* Arkansas+ over A&M

We've used the 'Hogs often this season and we noticed the public

has finally caught up.  In fact, if you were to acquire +10 here you

meet the criteria for a TOP PLAY under out system.  But, since

reality has set in nationally knowing how good the 'Hogs are becoming

we'll use them as a strong play, instead of the obvious.

10* Louisville -21, not higher....over Wake Forest

ACC GAME OF THE MONTH

BDS

Buy quickly the line is moving up!

092714

Play on:  4* Maryland+ (117) over Indiana @ 1:30 E

Last week we picked up a solid 5* winner on Maryland over Syracuse the EASTERN EDGE GAME OF THE WEEK.  Realize this time around the venue is quite different as Indiana is coming off a SU underdog win at Missouri 31-27.  Thought we’d at least see 6-6-1/2 type line (-4-1/2) with the TERPS win.  Still our openers show the lines makers have extracted value from Maryland as they realize their dual attack can cause serious problems for Indiana who is in a natural letdown situation.   Interesting both units are 0-6 ATS off a SU win, but Maryland is 5-2 ATS in September.  Feel with the Indiana running game controlling the clock, somewhat, the game will come down to the wire as Maryland is a tenacious football team.

10* California over Arizona

CFB REVENGE GAME OF THE MONTH

BDS

4* Houston over UNLV

The Rebels have no defense, while Cougars can score on anyone with their passing game. Home standing Houston shows 1-2 SU and 1-2 ATS with their only win a 47-0 route over FCS Grambling State.  Their two losses were to UTSA 7-27 and BYU 25-33.  The Rebels show off a 1-2 start with losses to Arizona 13-58, and NIU 34-48.  They did defeat FCS Northern Colorado 13-12 laying 28. Obviously Vegas has UNLV rated too high in their power charts in the early going. Techs indicate a clear picture as Houston is a PERFECT 8-0 ATS in the first of BB home games vs. a unit off a SU loss. Visiting UNLV is a PERFECT 0-8 ATS as an UNDERDOG off a DD SU loss. Good Luck.

092014

Play on: 10* Mississippi State +10 over LSU @ 7:00 Eastern

CFB LINE VALUE TOP PLAY

LSU takes the field on Saturday night against the Bulldogs of Mississippi State.  It will be the SEC home opener for the Tigers, by the way LSU is 1-10-1 ATS in conference home openers.  Still, the Tigers should prevail in a very close game.  LSU won 59-26 in 2013 after State had LSU down late.  The Tigers have lost the majority of the offense that generated 563 yards against MSU LY, including Metz, Beckham, Landry, Hill etc.  They have young people at skill positions, especially QB Jennings and the wide out group.  LSU does have a solid backfield with Hilliard, Magee and Fournette.  Defensively, the Tigers brought back 7 starters, but the overall group has suffered injuries early (DL).  In the preseason I projected MSU as one of the most improved teams in the nation.  The Bulldogs are experienced and are laden with seniors.  More important, this is a huge game for HC Dan Mullen who will love nothing better than break the long losing streak to LSU, 1991 was the last win in Baton Rouge.  Key for MSU will be the effectiveness of QB Dak Prescott who’s greatest asset is mobility.  Prescott is an experienced junior who has had a taste of DC Chavis’ defensive approach.  The Bulldogs have a balanced enough attack to cause problems. Remember Prescott was recruited late by LSU, in the end went to Starkville. In 2014 MSU is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS vs. so-so competition.  MSU does show strong in the second of BB road games hitting 8-of-10 ATS.  TAKE THE POINTS!

Play on: 3* BYU -14 or less (368) over Virginia @ 3:30 Eastern

This is a play against situation for Saturday.  Don’t lay more than 14.  As we stated earlier this season the Cavs coming off a 2-10 season could only look up.  Well HC Mike London (20-32) has done a great job as we forecasted 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS.  However, the Cavaliers played another heart pumping affair last week winning SU at home as an underdog versus Louisville.  So, that’s 2-of-3 games of excessive emotion in their first three outings.  It appears going out on road visiting BYU in Provo where the air is thin could present a natural letdown situation for the Cavs. Virginia is 1-5 ATS off a SU win as an underdog.  Home standing Cougars are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS after defeating Houston last Thursday 33-25.  In the Houston game the Cougars of BYU went out to a 23-0 lead then seemed to go flat allowing the visitor back in the game.  QB Hill of BYU is now the leader nationally with 7 touchdowns.  Clearly, BYU has the EMOTIONAL edge here after losing last season 19-16 at Virginia to start the season.  Plus they have extra time to prepare with their Thursday encounter against Houston the last encounter.  Remember BYU finished 8-5 SU in 2013 and brings back 14 starters with 45 lettermen.  BYU ROLLS!

5* Maryland over Syracuse

CFB EASTERN EDGE GAME OF THE WEEK

We had projected the Terps on the improve, despite their difficult loss last week.  In fact, we have them showing at +3 from the power rating standpoint vs. Syracuse. Recall Maryland has lost 5 straight in the series, and literally gave away the game LY in a 20-3 Orange win. The Terps have 17 starters returning and look to surprise the public this week. REVENGE!

10* Iowa+ over Pittsburgh

CFB LATE MONEY MOVE

BDS

Check back later for any LMMs over 4:00 Eastern...Good Luck!

091314

4* Western Kentucky+ 1-1/2 or 2 (147) over Middle Tennessee State @ 2:00 Eastern

Western is coming off a 42-34 loss to Big-10 entity Illinois after defeating Bowling Green 59-31 in their home opener.  The Hilltoppers brought back 12 starters from a team that went 8-4 SU.  Plus they have outstanding depth with 46 letters.  Middle Tennessee showed well last week despite losing 35-24 to Minnesota as a 16+ point underdog on the road.  The Blue Raiders seized the day in week #1 crushing Savannah State 61-7 in their home opener laying 40.  MTS brought back 13 starters from an 8-5 team and solid depth with 49 letters hitting the sideline.

The Illini returned 8 defensive starters from a unit holding opponents to 21.8 points per game.  In contrast Minnesota brings back 7 defensive starters to a unit that allowed almost 36-points per game.  When looking at the defensive power rankings, WKU has a slight advantage defensively.  Last week in the Illini game the number opened at -7, but was brought down as low as -3 ½…We made Illinois a 10* Line Value special here.  In the first two-three weeks of the season, overreactions to technical stats are common with the public.  WKU had covered 10 straight as a single digit underdog…Therefore, the overreaction.  The Hilltoppers are now 11-1 ATS getting single digits, plus they have a very bright new coach in Jeff Brohm who specializes in offense as he once was the starting quarterback at Louisville. After spending time as an assistant with the Chargers, then putting in two years as an Illini assistant, he is ready to upgrade WKU.  The home team is just 1-6 SU in the series.  With the opening line accruing some juice for WKU, I am on the Hilltoppers!

5* South Alabama (158) over Mississippi State @ 4:00 Eastern (ESPN)

SEC GAME OF THE WEEK

HC Mullen (36-28) of MSU has the troops rolling after two encounters vs. Southern Mississippi (49-0) and UAB (47-34) covering vs. SM and falling short against the Blazers.  MSU is coming off a 7-6 season with 16 starters back.  They are my preseason choice to excel above their recent past.  Home standing SA comes off a 6-6 campaign with 15 starters back.  SA defeated Kent State on the road last week 23-13, but the Golden Flashes are a so-so unit as we have estimated another 4-8 season for the kids from Ohio.  South Alabama relies much on their running game averaging 4+ yards per carry.  I believe you will see the kids from Alabama become more offensive via the passing game. Remember SA lost to Mississippi State in 2012 by the score of 30-10, so we have a REVENGE scenario.  Also, MSU has LSU up next in Baton Rouge, but don’t expect a complete letdown considering the Bulldogs gave up 34 last week to the Blazers. The question is out on how much has the Bulldogs defense improved?  Based on last weeks’ experience, believe there are still some questions giving rise to the spread. SA is 4-0 ATS in September, while MSU 5-11 ATS in road games.  Before LSU the Bulldogs are 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS.  Mississippi State 27 South Alabama 17

10* Arkansas +1 over Texas Tech

ROAD WARRIOR OF THE MONTH

BDS

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Play on:  3* Wyoming (143) +43 1/2 or +44 over Oregon @ 2:00 Eastern

We did our best staying away from the national games last week.  However, I came within a few seconds of pulling the trigger on Oregon.  Statistically in that game MSU and the Ducks were almost even in total yardage?  No doubt the Spartans defense tired down the stretch.  In the third of a three game home stand the Ducks face Wyoming.   Wyoming brings back 16 starters and 45 letters.  They finished with a 5-7 record in 2013.  To start the season the Cowboys are 2-0 SU with key wins over Montana (17-12) and Air Force (17-13).  Oregon shows with 108-40 net point advantage vs. South Dakota State and Michigan State.  No matter, this is a key letdown spot for the Ducks after all the hype around the Michigan State game.  Next week Oregon opens their PAC-12 schedule with Washington State followed by 6 more conference games.  So, if there is going to be somewhat of respite, Saturday is our call.  Granted in order to beat a team on Oregon’s level you will need to control the tempo with a solid running attack.  Wyoming has no such strength, but they did accumulate almost 300 yards passing against the Falcons.  The Pokes should be able to strike for two scores with a BIG LETDOWN coming from Oregon….TAKE THE POINTS!

10* Virginia +7 (Must Have) over Louisville

This is our line value special with an early start on Saturday. Remember my Illni call last week? Here is a reverse scenario as the line adjustment is coming on our side with the CAVS. In order to maintain a true math advantage, play this ASAP. Virginia matches up in dead-even in our power ratings, so we have great situation overall...Plus WR Parker is out for Looie...TAKE THE POINTS!

WE ARE 11-0 IN MLB TOTALS GOING INTO FRIDAY. WE HAVE GOY TYPE ANGLE GOING IN AN AMERICAN LEAGUE GAME...14-2 RUN!