082919

4* (137) Florida International+ over Tulane

8:00 Eastern

The Green Wave come in a solid 12-5 ATS against the C-USA, but return just 5 starters (13) on the offensive side of the ball.  FIU brings 8 offensive starters (16) which should help them greatly procuring an outright road upset considering QB Morgan is back again with his wide out crew to inflect damage.  Remember, the math charts project Tulane falling in the AAC power rankings, while the Golden Panthers are near the top in the C-USA.  FIU shows 6-0 ATS road L6, 4-1 ATS in non-conference and 12-5 ATS on turf.  We’ll project another upset (Hawaii) this time in a road setting.  Good Luck.

4*  Hawaii+ (254) over Arizona

College Football Week "O" Opener...BDS

Arizona (5-7) is coming off a lackluster PAC-12 season this time with coach Sumlin which includes a so-so recruiting season almost last in the conference.  Last season 'Zona averaged 31.3 points with QB Tate (2,530) who was injured but still accrued solid yards. Running back Tate (1,434) will be back and is one of their keys in 2019.  No, matter we don't see their defense improving over 2018 (32.6) as they surrendered over 4 touches a game.  Hawaii went to the run-n-shot offense last season moving their 2017 record from 3-9 to 8-6 in 2018 with a much more competitive unit in the MWC and HC Rolovich is staying with this system.  He has QB McDonald (3,875) back to hopefully improve on the 36 touchdowns from last season.  The offense averaged 32.2 points a game and the HC has said, "he sees much improvement in the spring."  Just like Zona the 'Canes have had problems on defense allowing 34.5 points per game in 2018, but they do have 9 starters back on that side of the ball?  Overall Hawaii is an experienced football team and have a chance to the pull the upset in this non-conference tilt.  With Hawaii 5-0 ATS in the month of August, we'll take the points.  GL.

4* Alabama - over Clemson

CFB National Championship Game...BDS

10* TEXAS+ over Georgia

CFB BOWL LINE VALUE GOY....BDS

4* LSU over Central

CFB BOWL POWER ANGLE

GOOD LUCK, BDS

5* Cincinnati over Virginia Tech

CFB BOWL BEST BET...BDS

5* ALABAMA -14 (not higher) over Oklahoma

Realize Tua's improving injured knee is a major factor, but overall this unit is

extremely confident and I have gut feeling Saban is toying with retirement. So,

this becomes even a larger battle for #1 Alabama.  Good Luck.

CFB Orange Bowl Classic...BDS

5* FLORIDA+ over Michigan

CFB PEACH BOWL CLASSIC...BDS

12:00

Florida has a major task against the physical Big Blue from

Michigan. However, the Big-10 unit has lost some of its luster how

they ended the 2018 regular season, while having some of their key

atheletes head to the NFL early. Remember the Gators have tenacious

HC Dan Mullen and an improved QB in Feleipe Franks. Overall Florida

has more speed (check Auburn vs. Purdue) and a key psychological 

with motivation driving the unit for old Michigan losses. If the 

Gators slow QB Patterson (former SEC QB), we see a surprising win

for coach Mullen and company. Remember the Blue is 1-5 ATS in

non-conference, with the Gators showing 4-0 ATS in non-conference

and 4-0 ATS after allowing less than 20 points in the last game.

Good Luck, and Happy New Year!

5* SOUTH CAROLINA over Virginia

CFB BELK BOWL CLASSIC...BDS

5* Iowa State+ over Washington State

ALAMO BOWL BEST BET ANGLE...BDS

DON'T MISS OUR BOWL GAME OF THE MONTH SATURDAY

5* Temple over Duke

Although Owls show with an interim coach, feel they can handle the Blue Devils at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.  Both Rizzo and Armstead are expected to play, so with the even number we'll go large with Temple.  Good Luck.

5* Northern Illinois+  over  UAB

CFB....BOCA RATON BOWL...BDS

Didn't have to spend much time on this baby as this set is all about SOS rushing defense, of which the Huskies have the edge.  Also, do you recall the Bahamas Bowl where Ohio (MAC) smashed the Blazers. Granted this year UAB finished 10-3, while NIU completed a difficult 8-5 campaign.  However, the Huskies had to face Florida State, Iowa and Utah.  On the other hand, UAB had just one quality non-conference call, and that was versus SEC unit Texas A&M (20-41), losing of course.  Since the Huskies "D" will reduce the running production of their opponent, we'll take the generous points, considering NIU is 4-1 ATS against winning units.  In closing, UAB comes 0-4 ATS on grass.  Good Luck.

5* North Texas over Utah State

CFB BOWL BEST BET AFTERNOON ACTION

Good Luck,

Brad Diamond

4* NCAT over Alcorn State

Other than productive special teams it doesn't seem like much of a battle this afternoon.  We recommend laying the points with no total involved.  Good Luck.

3:00 EASTERN

4* Army (103) over Navy

The key element inside the Army and Navy annual battle is the

weather in Philadelphia. At this writing the projections are

clear with temperature in the mid-thirties. If you've been

around College Football for many years this battle usually 

comes with a number of surprises on the field. Over the last 

two decades the series was owned by Navy at one point, winning

14 in a row. In 2016 and 2017 that changed with the Cadets taking

back a couple of wins. Overall the series brings Navy 60-51-7 SU.

Navy (3-9) had a rough season, while the Army (9-2) is nationally

ranked. In 2018 there were two common opponents, Hawaii and

Air Force. Navy lost both, 35-7 to the Air Force and 59-41

to Hawaii. The Cadets swept Hawaii 28-21, and Air Force 17-14.

Navy (26.2/34.9). It can be easily said that the Cadets have

the more effective offense led by its superior running attack

that is nationally ranked.  The key too, as far as time of 

possession the Cadets are ranked #1 (39 minutes+)in the nation.

The Middies have a solid running attack too, but the Cadets

bring #12 rushing defense (106.5). Believe Navy have to throw

the football for success, so I am not on that side of the game

considering Army has issues stopping the run (89th). Techs

have the Cadets 4-0 ATS off a bye and 5-1 ATS in December. 

Navy shows 3-7 ATS L10, 2-5 ATS off a SU loss and 1-4 ATS on

grass. One final item, we may have a total on the game later

in the week.  Good luck, Brad.

5* UAB+ over Middle Tennessee State

CFB REVENGE GAME OF THE WEEK....BDS

4* TEXAS+ over Oklahoma

Realize Sooners playing into revenge, but they are banged up at key positions.  Texas, despite the possibility of being overcome by the OU emotions, have been money in the bank inside the series...6-0 ATS.  In addition, the underdog has been lethal too showing 6-1 ATS of late.  So, with the Texas offense always a possibility in a back door cover, TAKE THE POINTS.  

4* Utah+6 over Washington

CFB BOW EDITION FRIDAY...BDS

7:00 Eastern

(152) 5* Clemson over South Carolina

CFB NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE WEEK...BDS

Clemson has won 4 straight in the series by an average of 24 points

per game.  They possess the superior personnel at the line of scrimmage

on both sides of the ball. Naturally, the Tigers generate the additional

edge in scoring abilities, and the emotional edge looking for Alabama. 

South Carolina brings a horrid 2-5 ATS record L7 off a SU win. In the

series, the home team is 4-1 ATS with the chalk carrying a 4-1 ATS

edge coming into action.  Good Luck.

(143) 5* Washington+ over Washington State

PAC-12 GAME OF THE WEEK...BDS

Here we go with another monster game, and we hope you cashed our MSU/Ole Miss

10* SEC Total of the Year Thursday and are now enjoying the leftover Turkey

profits. Tonight we are using the Huskies in this monster rivalry and PAC-12

critical football game. Lately, the series has been dominated by the Huskies

winning 5 straight, eight of nine. The chalk is a perfect 4-0 ATS

the last four. Issue #1, the Huskies have covered 7-of-9 at State. The

Huskies accrue 5.7 yards per play, defensively allowing 4.7 yards per play.

Second, the weather for the morning forecast has issued a "rain" warning for

the encounter. Washington is 8-3 SU, but a misleading 2-8 ATS this campaign.

This is the first time the Huskies will be classed as the underdog in 2018.

Third, do you think the media experts and linemakers just might have

overvalued the Huskies? Hard charging State is a majestic 9-1 SU and ATS

this season, and is projected possibly for the CFB playoffs? Washington

State as a chalk comes in 6-1 ATS with the only ATS downer against Cal early

season. Yes, the favorite (series) has won for straight ATS. Key

yardage numbers illustrate Washington State generating 6.3 yards per play,

allowing 4.9 yards. The fundamentals are not that far apart. Fourth, 

because of their explosive abilities, playing with major revenge and quiet

possibly the conference championship and playoff status, the world econony

is favoring State. Technically, State is 0-5 ATS after their most recent

five trips when surrendering defensively 280+ passing yards. Fifth, the

BIG NEWS, Washington will not need to exceed that angle to win this

SU. Sixth, and finally, the Cougars are overconfident and too pysched

to play a methodical first half. And, will give up the possibility of

controlling the first half, putting more stress on the offense to produce

later in critical down and distance situations. TAKE THE POINTS!

10* VIRGINA over Virginia Tech

CFB MONSTER MOVE...BDS

BUY THE DAY AND SAVE MONEY....

2:30 Eastern

(128) 5* Missouri over Arkansas

SEC GAME OF THE WEEK...BDS

We cashed our SEC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Thursday and we look for more inside

our favorite conference. Today we like coach Barry Odom (Arkansas) the former

DC of the school, and the Tigers to crush...45-17.  No doubt has had a sad

year (2-9) with no wins in the SEC. The two victories were against Tulsa

and E. Illinois?  Arkansas has been miserable on the both sides of the ball

at times, but they have only averaged 18-points the last five games on the

schedule.  The achieve 4.8 yards per play, giving back 6.1 yards per on the

defensive end, and that's real bad.  The Tigers (7-4) have played well lately, 

especially on offense taking the SEC teams, Florida(!), Vandy and Tennessee.

In addition, they lost three conference games that could have easily been

victories against Georgia, South Carolina and Kentucky. They average 5.9

yards per play, surrender 5.8 on the other side of the ball. Actually,

the 5.8 yards on defense normally would bother me, but the fading 'Hogs

have deflated offensively.  In the series, the home team has been red hot

against the spread...6-0 ATS.  Also, the 'Hogs are 6-15 ATS last giving up

450+ yards of total offense.  Would normally not lay more than three touches

with a conference unit that allows 5.8 yards per play, but then again here

we have depressed Arkansas. Barry Odom on a nice run in his first year as

head coach for Mizzou.  Good Luck.

7:00 Eastern

4* Temple+ (115) over Houston

For our expectations this season Temple has been somewhat of a surprise in key spots, 

but their defense was smashed last week by Central Florida 52-40, but note UCF was an 

undefeated football team. Now the Philly Owls must rebound on the road in a tough 

setting down in Houston.

Recall the Owls were a very solid 5-3 before last week running on the backs of QB

Russo and RB Armstead. They are 4-1 SU in the East coming into action. The high

flying Cougars are winners of 7-of-9 going 4-1 in the AAC West. The first advantage

we find for Temple as they accrue two additional days of practice/rest since they last

played on November 1st. Both units show off SU losses after winning streaks.

The Owls are averaging almost 34 points a game, the Cougars almost 45, but the

Owls have the more effective defense. Technically, Houston is 5-2 ATS at home and

5-1 ATS on turf. However, the Owls come in 21-7 ATS off a SU loss and 22-6 ATS in 

conference. Also, the Owls bring a solid 8-2 ATS mark in November.  So, with QB 

Russo leading Temple we look for a SU win by the visitors from Philadelphia.

Good Luck.

3* Georgia over Kentucky

In Las Vegas when the lines open for CFB you have about 15 minutes before valued has been extracted by the betting community on selective sides and totals.  Here Georgia came open in most watering holes about -10 or -9-1/2.  Since there has been so much action on the Wildcats with the game coming to the state of Kentucky.  However, and although, I would love from the sporting standpoint to log the Wildcats, can't see it with this being a "critical" game for the 'Dawgs and their playoff changes.  Lay the points, and then go out to dinner, don't watch this baby because believe you will see a turnover filled game because of all the emotion found herewith.  Good Luck.

CHECK OUT OUR 10* SATURDAY COLLEGE BOMBS 40-19 ROLL IN TOP PLAYS

4* ULL+ over Troy

CFB Deep South Monster...BDS

3* Wisconsin over Rutgers

CFB Fan Appreciation Winner...BDS

4* A&M over Auburn

SEC SLAM EVENT...BDS

APPRECIATION ANGLE....

10*  MARYLAND+  over  Michigan State

Maryland and Michigan State are both 5-3 this season.  However, after being shutout by Iowa two weeks back the Terps have came to live crushing the Illini 63-33 in a wide open game.  Michigan State although holding strong is coming off a murderous strength part of their schedule against Northwestern, Penn State (A) Michigan and Purdue.  Despite losing by 14 to the Blue, they rebounded nicely 23-13 as we expected in the office.  This encounter is being played at Maryland with an early start which should help the unit at rest.  Last season, MSU led 17-0 before Maryland could score any points 17-7 win for the Spartans.  The issues in that game were bad weather, including snow, and a Maryland offense that completed just 2 passes, while rushing for 2.6 yards per carry.  So, if you can imagine a revenge game, this is it.   No doubt State leads the series 7-2 SU.  However, the Terps have regained offensive confidence and we see a huge upset that will change bowl invitations. Remember the Spartans are suffering from injury issues now.  From the techs come a super 0-4 ATS for Michigan State after a SU win.  Good Luck.

5* Arizona over Colorado

CFB FRIDAY NIGHT 5* BEST BET PROGRAM

THANK YOU,

BRAD DIAMOND SPORTS

5* WESTERN KENTUCKY+  OVER  MTS

CFB FRIDAY NIGHT 5* BEST BET PROGAM

5*  Pittsburgh+ over Virginia 

CFB FRIDAY NIGHT BEST BET PROGRAM

3* Miami Ohio+ over Buffalo

MAC TUESDAY ANGLE...BDS

5* Texas A&M+ over Miss State

SEC GAME OF THE WEEK....BDS

5* UNLV+ over San Jose State

Despite Rodgers being out for the Rebels, feel their running game (253) will take control of this encounter.  No doubt both units have played into some tough luck this year, but TOP likely to go to the visitor who has not quit on the visitor.  With the line fluctuation this week there is still value inside the UNLV side.  Good Luck.

5* SMU+ over Cinncinnati

AAC Conference Game of the Week...BDS

5* Harvard+ OVER Dartmouth

IVY LEAGUE GAME OF THE WEEK...BDS

3* Cornell+ over Princeton

CFB Ivy League Appreciation Angle...BDS

5* Texas Tech over Iowa State

Big-12 Game of the Week...BDS

Underdogs (with offense) in this conference roll in week #9 and have an outstanding chance of

of winning when accruing a FG+ inside the Vegas board, especially if

they are the road team and the underdog.  Good Luck.

5* Northwestern over Rutgers

Realize RB Larkin will must likely not play again this week, so expect the 'Cats rushing game to suffer again, I think, as Rutgers has 3rd problems stopping the running game.  Don't forget this Rutgers has an inconsistent offense with problems at the quarterback position.  Also, can't expect their defense to stop the 'Cats outstanding passing attack, while noting NW has gone 3-0 SU in the Big-10 with wins over Purdue, Michigan State and Nebraska. Against the spread they show 4-0 ATS this season.  Overall, the 'Cats are 21-5-1 ATS in conference, 4-0 ATS on turf and 9-1-1 ATS during October.  The Scarlet Knights come in 1-5 ATS against the Big-10 and 8-20 ATS off a SU loss.  Good Luck.

3* EARLY CFB APPRECIATION ANGLES

RETURN 1:30 EASTERN FOR LATER CARD

THANKS, AND GOOD LUCK....BDS

4* Penn State+ over Ohio State

Grab the four now as the public and sharps will move on this quickly.  Last year at Ohio State, the Bucks won 39-38 and we see somewhat of a replica Saturday.  Huge revenge game for PSU, especially considering their 1-5 SU mark L6 against this hated foe.  But, we must back the Nits who are at home Saturday night, with revenge and the under valued underdog to say the least.  There are some key pieces missing from the 2017 from the Blue and White, however, the Bucks come in off a major blowout showing 1-4 ATS L5 after scoring 40+ points.  Good Luck.

3* Virginia Tech+ (133) over Duke

CFB Fan Appreciation Winner...BDS

Okay, QB Jackson is out for Tech and the defense took a hit in personnel and ego last week allowing 49 points to "ODU!"  The Gobblers now go on the road facing Duke that has won 7 straight games after crushing 55-13 against NC Central last week.  They had defeated Baylor, Northwestern and Army prior to last week.  Tech mounted over 300 yards rushing last week in their loss to ODU, this gives us an inclination that we may have an overlay on the board.  VPI has won back to back games in the series 24-3 and 24-21.  Realize the Devils appear to be world beaters, but just can't trust them laying this number.  The former Kansas QB Pruitt takes over for Jackson and the kid can play, but we assume he will be highly conservative early.  Granted with Jackson, VPI won game #1 of the season against Florida State 24-3 getting +7, so we can't discount the overall ability of the unit.  The underdog in the series is 4-1 ATS, while Tech begins 6-1 ATS after allowing 40+ in a loss.  In closing, the Blue Devils bring a 1-4-1 ATS mark after an ATS loss.  GL

3* ARMY+ (109) over Buffalo

No doubt the Bisons are flying high winning 4 straight (3-1 ATS) games.  The Cadets just missed the Sooners last in OT 28-29.  They are 2-2 SU (2-1-1 ATS) this season against a fairly good schedule.  These two have split the 16-17 games by three and four points, which is an indicator the habit maybe appropriate.  The Cadets are rated #2 in rushing the football, 315 yards per game, and should create issues for the Buffalo defense.  Technically, Army is on a 4-1 ATS run as an underdog. And, with the public projecting a letdown after OU, we have accrued sufficient value to make this another CFB Appreciation special.  Good Luck, and thank you.

3* Memphis over Tuland

Friday Fan Appreciation Move

Actually laying a tough number down in Louisiana tonight, but must give great respect to the Tigers critical stat pack.  First off, Memphis shows #12 in scoring (44.0), while the Greenies are ranked #118 accruing 15.7 points per game.  Average yards per attempt brings Memphis in with one yard on the season.  However, were the two schools differ is rushing yards per attempt offensively and opponents yards per play.  The Tigers are rated #1 in the country running the football with a 8.7 yards per rush, defensively the are holding their foes to 4.8 yards per play.  Tulane has been running at 3.6 yards (#102) per play, while ranked #89 in opponents yards per play with 6.1 yards per.   Memphis controls the series ATS with a 13-3-1 mark, 4-1 ATS L5 at Tulane.  Also, they show 12-1 ATS on the road versus a losing home unit.  Tulane comes in 1-10 ATS in Friday editions, and 1-3-1 ATS off a SU loss.  GL.

(408)

 5* IOWA +3 over Wisconsin @ 8:30 Eastern

COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME OF THE WEEK…BDS

 Last week road warrior Wisconsin actually lost a home game to BYU 24-21. The Cougars rushing attack crunched the Wisky defense for 191 rushing yards. Iowa started slow against Northern Illinois, but led 38-0 going into the 4th quarter.  Iowa’s defense held NIU to 6 yards rushing, therefore, few scoring drives.  The Badgers are on a 5-1 SU streak against the hated Hawkeyes, but they still must gain closure after that devastating loss which knocked them out of the rankings.   Talking much about the running attacks, over the last two meetings won by Wisconsin 17-9 and 38-17, the Hawkeyes managed a combined rushing total of 108 yards.  If Ferentz wants to win this prime-time special Iowa needs to win the line of scrimmage.  No doubt Hornibrook and Stanley will battle it out as offensive leaders and quarterbacks. Critical, Iowa’s Stanley must not replicate his 8/24 performance in 2017.  Fortunately, for the Hawkeyes they are gaining a few injured key pieces to their lineup.  Wisconsin has won the last two in the series by 55-26, however, the Hawkeyes smell blood and should be inside the upset tonight.  Granted Wisconsin has been a super play on the road against the spread, but Iowa is on a solid 5-0 ATS run.  In addition, they show 6-1-1 ATS at home and 4-0 ATS after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in a game.  Wisky 0-4 ATS on turf and 1-4 ATS during September.  TAKE THE POINTS.

5* Ole Miss (366) over Kent State @ 12:00 Eastern

Normally, would not lay this number with Ole Miss after 'Bama, but must estimate that the Rebs will want to save face in the SEC after their last flounder.  Remember, they have edge on the offense side at QB and RB, especially considering the smallish KSU smallish secondary.  As we fully expect Ole Miss to achieve second level space after their passing game shocks the visitor.  The Rebels are a PERFECT 4-0 ATS after losing by 20+ points and 5-1-1 ATS after achieving under 170 yards passing (Alabama defense).  Kent State shows 1-6 ATS L7 after surrendering 40+ points and 1-5 ATS chasing the SEC.  Good Luck, and thanks for using BDS.

5* Houston (169) over Texas Tech @ 4:15 Eastern

Yes, the 45-18 victory against Arizona was impressive even against a mistake prone defense.  Here the Cougars travel face Big-12 rival Texas Tech possessing an 18-12-1 SU record in the all-time series. In 2017 the Red Raiders defeated Houston 27-24, but the Cougars coughed up five turnovers to hand TTU the win.  Houston had over 500+ yards of offense and still lost.  This is game is critical for the Cougars on a national with this being a Power 5 Conference foe.  They are 13-6 ATS against non-conference teams and 15-6 ATS during September. Texas Tech defeated Lamar(?), enough said about that! So, I wonder if the Red Raiders will come to play with an overconfident psyche? Coach is still playing around with the quarterback situation, so we can’t sit around awaiting his choice.  No matter, the offensive unit is balanced and talented, and should receive some support this week from the walking wounded.

 Texas Tech defeated Lamar(?) last week 77-0, enough said about that!  But, already coach Kingsbury has sent mixed signals as to who will start at quarterback, having three capable talents.  As always, the Red Raiders have a solid balanced offensive unit, and it is one of the reasons Tech has won 8 straight non-conference games at home.  In week #1 Ole Miss beat Texas Tech 47-27 doing it with big plays.  In fact, the Rebels scored five touchdowns on drives of 5 plays or less.  Tech is 3-7 ATS L10 games and 1-6 ATS versus a unit with a >.500 road mark.  Lay the small price with Houston as they gain revenge for their give loss last season at home.  Good Luck.

Note, we taking this early because of the line value already tampered with by the wise guys.  We still want the side, but must have the aforementioned number.  Good Luck.

5* Syracuse+ over Florida State

CFB EASTERN EDGE GAME OF THE WEEK

When you look at these two offensively you can't help think that the Sems are going in the wrong direction.  FSU is ranked #113 in 3rd conversions, so no matter how strong their defense is they will consistently give back the football.  QB Francois has had problems in down and distance situations.  The Orange have a wild and wily offense led by QB Dungey.  Under the dome up in New York brings a solid setting for a high scoring game with Syracuse's inconsistent defense.  Trends, give us Florida State @ 0-7-2 ATS in conference, while 'Cuse comes 4-0 ATS L4 games in September, 5-1 ATS after rushing for 200+ yards.  The home team in the series is 5-2 ATS.  

10* TOLEDO+ over Miami Florida

First off, the 'Canes are a road favorite in this situation, and are expected to win and cover by must experts and public opinion.  So, we jumped into our power rating system looking at double-digit underdogs that are under valued by the recent results, etc. Granted the 'Canes may win SU on the road, but the number is all Toledo.  This is our power rating mismatch of the year.  Good Luck.