I'm laying the points with Southern Miss on Saturday.  This marks the second time in three weeks we'll have backed the boys from Hattiesburg.  We had them in week-one and cashed when they not only covered at Kentucky, but won outright, 44-35.  The Golden Eagles probably would have won by a bigger margin if not for a lot of unforced miscues in the first half.  But they came from behind and showed everyone why we backed them.  Southern Miss heads into Saturday with a chance at a 3-0 start and we feel they'll pull away from Troy after intermission.  Troy gave it their all and almost shocked the college football world with their near miss against a Clemson team that obviously had overlooked the Trojans.  That game itself, will help So. Miss. HC Jay Hopson keep his squad focused throughout.  QB Nick Mullens is back and leads the best offensive backfield in Conference-USA. Hopson is able to focus on the defense, thanks to offensive-minded assistants. So. Miss. averaged nearly 7 yards per play and almost 40 ppg last season. Even with a few new faces, including a pair of new starters at OT, the Golden Eagles' offense has not missed a beat in 2016. Southern Miss is 5-0-1 in their last six September games and they're 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine non-conference games.  I'm laying the points with Southern Miss, my Main Event.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm grabbing the points with Texas State on Saturday. Tough spot for Arkansas when it comes to finding motivation to cover more than a 4-TD spread over Texas State. The Hogs are off the big road win over TCU and have a date at Texas A&M up next. TSU is an underrated squad this season as the Ohio Bobcats found out two weeks ago. Texas State won outright in OT as a 17 point underdog. QB Tyler Jones completed 40 of 55 passes for 418 yards, 4 TDs & 2 INTs, while four receivers caught between six and 10 passes. TSU has had two weeks to prep for this one and again Arkansas is in a tough sandwich spot. They'll win, but we'll bet they don't cover the big number. I'm taking the points with Texas State, my Top Shocker. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Northern Illinois on Saturday afternoon.  The Huskies are off to a tough start, losing in OT at Wyoming, followed by a loss at South Florida.  The Huskies were in a tough spot last week in Tampa coming off a game in Laramie, Wyoming that ended around 4:30 AM ET on a Sunday morning thanks to a long weather delay.  QB Drew Hare is expected to miss the home opener with an ankle injury, but backup Ryan Graham is expected to start.  There isn't a big drop-off to Graham, at least not as much as the line would indicate. Graham is a decent passer and he owns the ability to escape pressure and use his feet to gain yardage on the ground. SDSU is off a big home win over Cal, but the defense looked highly susceptible.  The Aztecs won 45-40, failing to cover, while be out-gained 604-463.  Cal finished the game with 30 first downs on the Aztec defense.  We expect an overvalued SDSU squad to struggle to catch this week's spread against an undervalued NIU squad.  Last week was a rarity as the Aztecs are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conf games.  They're also 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games following a non-conf game.  SDSU was outscored by an average margin of 12 ppg in those 11 outings. I'm grabbing the points with Northern Illinois, my DogPound on Saturday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Miami-Florida on Saturday.  Appalachian State was impressive when they gave highly ranked Tennessee a scare.  But Tennessee overlooked the Mountaineers, something Hurricanes' HC Mark Richt will use to keep his team motivated and focused on the task at hand. Also, the 'Canes have nothing standing in the way of complete focus with a bye week on deck. Miami has not only tuned-up their experienced offense in their first two games, (albeit against out-manned opponents), but they have also played a very stingy brand of defense.  We believe Miami's pedigree and talent will wear down ASU in the second half.  The Mountaineers have jumped out fast in each of their first two games, but have scored a grand total of seven second half points, failing to score against the Vols, while scoring one TD after intermission in a 31-7 win over Old Dominion.  The offensive line has new faces and should struggle here against a solid defensive front seven.  Mark Richt-coached teams are 21-9 ATS on the road after holding their previous two opponents to no more than 17 points each.  Meanwhile, ASU is on a 0-5 ATS slide after a SU win. Finally, and more importantly, my ratings make Miami 8 points better than ASU at this venue.  I'm backing Miami, my Morning Massacre.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with (463) the San Diego Chargers on Sunday.  KC finished the season on a fantastic run that saw the Chiefs win 11 games in a row before finally bowing out of the postseason in a 27-20 loss to the Patriots.  But I believe they're overpriced this week thanks to the winning streak, combined with SDG's down year in 2015.  However, let's not forget the Chargers won 14 of 22 games before injuries took their toll on the offensive line, along with other key positions.  The offensive line is healthy, the receiving corps looks great on paper, and Philip Rivers still owns the goods as long as he gets the time to throw.  We believe he will behind the healthy o-line.  I expect a drop-off in KC's pass rushing abilities since they're not fully healthy on defense right now.  And as reported elsewhere, KC's defense faced just two QBs in the top-10 in passer ratings in 2015.  The Chargers enter on a 6-0 ATS run on the road and they're on a 9-2-1 ATS run in September action, normally padding the bankroll to start the season.  I'm taking the points with the Chargers, my DogPound GOW.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Jaguars on Sunday.  We like the look of Jacksonville to start the season.  The defense has added more than half-a-dozen quality players to shore-up some leaks. Malik Jackson (Denver) and a healthy Dante Fowler are big-time improvements up front and I expect the pass rush to show great improvement over last year's version, which in turn helps the secondary improve, also.  The organization has shown the desire to give the Jags' defense the chance to win by bringing in numerous secondary players the last couple of years, including Prince Amukamara.  Offensively, QB Blake Bortles will work with one of the top receiving corps and running back corps in the league.  Green Bay will not walk away with a win in my opinion.  The offensive line is adjusting to the loss of its best player, Josh Sitton, who was shown the door in order to save over $6-million in salary cap.  While Jordy Nelson is back in the mix at WR, I do believe it's going to take a little time for the Packer offense to find its chemistry and rhythm.  As far as the Vegas books are concerned, CGT has said that Green Bay is the biggest "square" play in week-1 (as of Friday) and we'll gladly side with the sharp money.  I'm grabbing the points with the Jaguars, my Main Event.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with (387) UNLV on Saturday night.  UCLA is in off an incredibly tough season-opening loss at Texas A&M.  The Bruin defense was not only punished up front in a physical manner, but it was also a highly emotional contest.  UCLA also has little motivation in this one, at least to cover a near 4-TD spread, with a game at BYU on deck.  The Pac-12 entry was chewed-up on the ground last week and UNLV can open up holes with their ground game.  The Rebels won 63-13 last week and it could have been worse. Yes it was against a bad Jackson State program, but you'll recall last season when the Rebels played Michigan in the "Big House" and kept the game close, losing 28-7, while getting 32 points. UNLV held Michigan to seven points after halftime. This is a better UNLV squad with a true QB at the helm in Johnny Stanton, a Nebraska-transfer. This is a big number for a beat-up UCLA squad to be laying and while they'll win outright, I'm betting they won't cover the spread.  I'm grabbing the points with UNLV on Saturday, my DogPound GOW. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm grabbing the points with (#333) Tulsa on Saturday afternoon.  I expect Ohio State to score their share of points in this one, but the young an inexperienced Buckeye defense, with only three returning starters, should be hard-pressed to hold Tulsa's offense in-check.  The Golden Hurricane crushed SJSU 45-10 last week as a short favorite, outgaining the Spartans 512 to 287.  While this is a big step up in class (obviously) the Tulsa offense is for real.  Tulsa is led by Phillip Montgomery, the former OC at Baylor. Seven starters return to an offense that averaged 37 ppg last season, including QB Dane Evans, and excellent skill personnel, despite losing their top receiver. So again, I do expect OSU to score quite a few points.  But I also expect a decent amount from Tulsa, leading to the cover.  The undervalued Golden Hurricane are on a 10-1 ATS run on the road and catch Ohio State in a potential look-ahead with a game at Oklahoma up next for the Buckeyes. Finally, road dogs of more than 21 points are on a 34-10 ATS run if they outgained their opponent by at least 225 yards in their previous game. We're grabbing the points with Tulsa, our Non-Conf Shocker of the Month.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

Nothing like overreaction!  Wisconsin catches LSU in a 16-14 upset win and they go from being unranked to 10th in this week's AP poll.  Let's call it like it was.  LSU still has massive issues at QB and Wiscy loaded-up the line of scrimmage.  The offense is weak, though, and this week, they'll actually face a more competent passer in Akron QB Thomas Woodson.  The Zips made a ton of unforced miscues in their season opener, but put it all together with a big fourth quarter.  This week, they catch Wiscy at the right time and we'll grab the points. Road dogs of more than 21 points are on a 48-19 ATS run, provided they outgained their previous opponent by at least 175 yards. Akron, plus the points, my Value Beatdown.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing (311) Ohio University; (321) Cincinnati; and (329) Akron.  The Ohio Bobcats suffered what may seem like an embarrassing home loss last weekend to Texas State, but TSU was an underrated squad.  No, Ohio should not have lost the game outright, but it was apparent they weren't well prepared between the ears.  There were still positives to be taken from the game, including an offense that rolled-up 630 total yards, 5 yards per carry on the ground, and a 380 yard, 4 TD, 0 INT, performance from QB Greg Windham.  Kansas beat Rhode Island last week, as they should have.  After all, the game with URI is the main reason KU's win total at the books was 1 1/2 before the season kicked off.  Jayhawk fans stormed the field after a win over the lowly Rams, but not this week.  KU should not be favored.  We'll grab the points with Ohio, our Road Warrior.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Cincinnati, my Morning Massacre.  Purdue beat Eastern Kentucky last week and everyone around Big-10 country are talking about the new, uptempo Boilermaker offense. But they were supposed to beat EKU, and the win wasn't all that impressive. Purdue, a 3 TD favorite led by just 10 points early in the fourth quarter before pulling away.  The defense allowed nearly 400 yards of offense. Look for Cincy to get back on track after a sluggish outing in week-one. Tommy Tuberville-coached teams are on a 16-5 ATS run as a road fave of seven or less, while the Boilermakers are on a 1-8 ATS slide at home after playing a home game, allowing over 36 ppg.  I'm laying the points with Cincy, my Morning Massacre.  The Cincinnati Bearcats are my Morning Massacre.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Auburn on Saturday, Sept. 3. Home underdogs getting 3 1/2 to 10 points are on a 32-8 ATS winning run in non-conference action, provided they played better than .500 football the previous season. The Auburn Tigers fit the bill. More importantly, Auburn fits the kind of team I like to play early in a college football season. I like to look for top shelf programs that failed to meet the hype the previous season, return a lot of top notch talent the current season, yet are receiving very little hype, relatively speaking. That's the case with the Auburn Tigers as they head into 2016. They're an undervalued football team off of two subpar seasons, getting plenty of points against a talented Clemson squad, but one that's over-valued a bit in this opener. Clemson has had their problems covering spreads on the road, dropping six of their last eight ATS. And while Sean White is expected to get the start for Auburn, we expect HC Gus Malzahn to use three QBs, making preparation a little tougher on the Clemson defense. Clemson lost over 73% of its sack production as reported, and Auburn should also be able to run the football. I expect Auburn to hang this number at the least. I'm taking the points with the Auburn Tigers, my DogPound release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with LSU on Saturday.  First things first -- Leonard Fournette is expected to play and according to Les Miles, he won't be limited due to an ankle injury suffered earlier. Fournette will operate behind an offensive line with three returning starters and plenty of tested depth.  The key to LSU's chances at a CFB final four appearance will be the passing game.  I expect to see more from Brandon Harris this season, beginning with this game, against a beatable and somewhat young Wisconsin secondary.  The Badgers' defense was no match for another SEC opponent to begin last season, when Alabama not only beat Wiscy 35-17, but gained 6.4 yards per carry, while outgaining the Baders 502 to 268, overall.  Gone from Wiscy's offense are QB Joel Stave and the team's leading WR.  Corey Clement is back from injury at RB and while the offensive line returns four starters, I expect the Badger offense to struggle against the LSU 3-4 defense.  New LSU DC and former Wisconsin DC, Dave Aranda inherits a ton of physical and speedy talent with the Tiger defense.  I believe they'll stuff the run, putting pressure on the Wisconsin so-so passing game, and cruise to the win and cover.  Finally, teams that averaged at least 200 yards rushing the previous season are on a 42-12 ATS run in games one through four of the current season, provided they return at least four starters and their QB and the opponent is breaking in a new starter at QB.  I'm laying the points with LSU, my Knockout release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with UL-Lafayette on Saturday (12 noon ET).  The Rajin' Cajuns are looking at a bounce-back season.  UL-L finished last season with just four wins, following a 2014 campaign where they won nine games, including a 13-point bowl win over Nevada.  They are a big home dog in this one with Boise State receiving plenty of hype heading into the season.  But while the Bronco offense owns plenty of talent, the defense has a lot of work to do to get to where they hope to be.  Boise is replacing six starters, including the entire defensive line.  Most of those returning up front didn't get a lot of quality playing time last season.  The inexperienced defensive front will face a UL-L offensive line with everyone back.  They're a strong run-blocking unit and have one of the best RBs Boise will face all season in Elijah McGuire.  I do believe UL-L will be able to control the Boise defense in the trenches.  At the same time, the Cajuns have three defenders with All Sun Belt first team potential.  BSU QB Brett Rypien and his fine group of receivers should be in for a big year and they should win this game outright.  But covering a near 3-TD spread is another story.  The Rajin' Cajuns have covered 18 of 27 as a dog under HC Mark Hudspeth, averaging over 26 ppg in those 27 games.  I believe they'll hang the number again.  I'm taking the points with UL-Lafayette, my Shocker on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Ball State on Friday night.  A shot at exacting a little revenge for the Cardinals after a 12-point loss to GSU last season. Ball State out-rushed the Panthers by 113 yards, holding GSU to 41 yards on 29 carries.  But they couldn't overcome their deficiencies against the pass, nor could they handle GSU QB Nick Arbuckle (28-38, 412 yards, 1 TD). But Arbuckle is no longer behind center and there's a significant drop-off as we kick-off the new season.  Ball State does return nine of 11 defensive starters and we should note (a well reported situation, but not one of my originals) that underdogs of more than 3 points but less than 10 1/2 points are on a 35-11 ATS run during the first month of the season, provided they're returning at least nine starters after allowing at least a 58% completion rate the previous season.  We also have a nice edge at the QB position with Riley Neal owning a big-time arm.  We'll grab the points with Ball State, our Friday night Shocker.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the NY Giants on Saturday. Ben McAdoo hasn't looked to be in much of a hurry to pick up his first win as HC of the NY Giants, but I expect different results tonight. We'll see many of the starters and regulars from both teams tonight, which means the Giants' quick strike offense will be on the field of play. It's also an offense (albeit backups) that scored 10 points in preseason week-1 and got shutout last week by Buffalo. As we mentioned with one of our releases last week, teams coming off a preseason shutout have been superb money-makers, now 31-16-1 the last 48 times. While the G-men own a quick strike and dangerous offense, the Jets do not as everyone knows. I expect the Jets' offense to struggle keeping up with their counterparts and I certainly don't mind playing against Geno Smith and the Jets' backup QBs when Ryan Fitzpatrick's night comes to an end. We'll lay the points with the NY Giants, my Saturday Smash. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the BC Lions on Friday night. The Stamps & Lions have split the season series thus far, but BC, winners of the first meeting opening week, should probably have won the second meeting, also. BC held a 15 point fourth quarter lead with less than four minutes to go in the most recent meeting (July 29) before a massive collapse ended in a 44-41 OT loss. The Lions couldn't overcome a minus-2 turnover ratio in the contest and failed to put the Stamps away, but they've bounced back with two straight wins. The Lions have scored 38 or more points in each of their last four games. QB Jonathan Jennings has completed 68% of his passes over the last four games (98 of 145), averaging 360 yards passing per game on 9.93 yards per attempt, with 10 TD passes and just 4 INTs. He has a fantastic group of receivers and the ground game has churned out 86.3 yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry in their last four outings. Jeremiah Johnson has gained 136 yards on 30 carries with 3 TDs in his last two games. The Lions have covered four straight games and CFL home teams with a line range that includes tonight's number are on a 47-17 ATS run if they're at home and playing in revenge, provided they allowed at least 38 points in the loss. With the way the Lions' offense is hitting on all cylinders, we're looking for the home team to gain a measure of revenge. I'm backing the BC Lions minus the points, my Canadian Crush. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Vikings on Thursday. We backed Minnesota last week, our only play of the preseason thus far, citing what we felt was not only a slight preseason QB advantage, but also Mike Zimmer's intensity and determination to win no matter what part of the season.  Zimmer went into the game ticked-off at his team after a few sloppy practices earlier in the week.  In fact, he even stopped a mid-week practice and made the team do push-ups.  Well, despite the win in week-1, Zimmer is at it again.  The Vikings' HC stated that he was not happy with his team's defensive play, especially the run defense in the win over Cincy and that he needs to see major improvement in week-2.  We do like that kind of talk from a HC who's 9-1 SU/8-2 ATS in preseason action. And when Zimmer is riding the defense, we expect things to happen.  His defenses have allowed a grand total of 118 points in 10 preseason games, an average of 11.8 ppg. Yes, there was once a time when Pete Carroll was determined to win preseason games, but those days look to be in the past.  Carroll's Seahawks are 5-4 SU/ATS in their last nine preseason contests.  Finally, we like the QB situation in this matchup when the starters leave the field.  Bridgewater, Stave, and Hill, combined for 20 of 27 passing last week, with the backups connecting on 14 of 20.  We do favor Minnesota's backup rotation over Boykin & Heaps.  And, of course, we're getting points.  I'm taking the points with Minnesota, my Preseason Main Event GOY. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Minnesota Vikings plus the points on Friday. These two teams have been practicing together the last two days and tempers have flared on a few occasions, despite the mutual admiration between the head coaches. That may not mean a whole lot when this one kicks off, but what will be important is Mike Zimmer's approach to preseason. The Vikings' HC has won eight of nine preseason games, expects stout defensive play no matter what part of the season we're in, and he was quite unhappy with his team's focus, or lack thereof, earlier this week. Zimmer stopped practice and forced his team to do push-ups. We likely won't see a lot of the starting QBs in this one, while Cincy will go to AJ McCarron second and the Vikings will counter with Shaun Hill in all likelihood. The difference from past preseasons for the Bengals is that they no longer have Josh Johnson, who's now with the Ravens. Johnson's last two week-one preseason games saw huge efforts by the QB on the ground, gaining 101 yards on more than 10 yards per carry, while attempting 37 passes in the two starts combined. When things get "vanilla" the Bengals may turn to Keith Wenning or Joe Licata and that's where I believe Minnesota will find their best defensive success. I expect the Vikings to win the game outright, but my play is to take the points. Minnesota is my Friday Shocker. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Saskatchewan on Thursday night. The Riders are looking to avenge last year's season sweep at the hands of the Argos. But then again, Sask will be in plenty of revenge situations after a horrible 2015 campaign. They're healthy though to start this one and will face a Toronto team with a lot of unanswered questions off of last week's season opening loss. The Argos thought they improved up front on the offensive line, but they couldn't keep QB Ricky Ray out of trouble and lost in their first game at their new home stadium. Another game or two could help, but tonight, they're in for what I believe will be a long night. Toronto is also banged-up at WR and in the defensive secondary. Sask HC Chris Jones was outstanding in the same position in Edmonton and his teams enter on a 10-1 ATS run as home chalk of no more than seven points, outscoring the 11 opponents by an average of 35 to 15. Meanwhile, the Argos enter just 1-5 ATS in their last six games going back to last season. I'm laying the points with Saskatchewan, my Knockout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Warriors on Thursday. We played the Cavaliers last time out, due in part to the fact the Warriors rotations would be hamstrung with Draymond Green sidelined by a suspension. As Steve Kerr said, the team was lacking in communication on the defensive end. But Green is back and I expect the Warriors to play much better. Before the suspension, with Green on the floor, the Warriors had forced LeBron James into committing an average of nearly 6 turnovers per game. We felt he would flourish in Green's absence and James and Kyrie Irving both did so in historic proportions. Obviously, losing Andrew Bogut early in the third quarter magnified the loss of Green. Before Bogut was injured, we saw a dead-even first half, ending the second quarter in a 61-61 tie. I believe the Warriors can win without Bogut (out for the rest of the Finals) as long as Green is on the floor, keeping the Warriors cohesive on the defensive end. Offensively, GSW went cold from the outside in the second half, making just 3 of their final 22 3-pointers. I don't expect those kind of struggles two games in a row. Golden State enters on a 9-1-1 ATS run off a double-digit home loss and they're 12-3 ATS this season when playing with revenge, outscoring those 15 opponents by an average of 117-106. The last time on this floor, Golden State won 108-97. Draymond Green scored 9 points, while pulling down 12 rebounds, with 4 assists, and 3 blocks. Bogut played just 10 minutes and didn't attempt a single shot, while grabbing just 1 rebound. You see where I'm going. I'm taking the points with the Warriors. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Cavaliers on Monday night. Draymond Green has been ruled out for tonight's tilt in the Bay Area. While there's always the thought that someone else will pick up the slack for a missing piece, at least for one game, I'm of the thought that it's going to be tough for GSW to get used to not having him on the floor. Green, as reported, has been on the floor for all 88 Golden State wins this season. His harassing and hounding defensive play has forced LeBron into several miscues during this series. James has averaged nearly six turnovers per game. I don't believe anyone on the Warriors roster will be able to come close to duplicating what Green gives them. Obviously, if things open up on the offensive end for the Cavaliers, we could very well see a game six, or at least have a close, hard fought tilt with an underdog cover tonight. We note that road dogs playing .600 to .750 basketball are on a 30-9 ATS run against home teams leading a series and playing at least .750 basketball on the season. I'm grabbing the points with the Cleveland Cavaliers, my Monday night Slam Dunk. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday night. The Cavs led game one, 68-67 with 1:26 to go in the third quarter and looked like they were making the move, certainly with momentum on their side. But over the final 90 seconds of the third quarter, the Warriors closed with a 7-0 run. While one could feel the momentum switching back to GSW, Tyronn Lue apparently could not see it, and didn't realize how much of a difference it would mean to the outcome of the game. In all, the Cavaliers scored just eight points over eight minutes of game time and trailed by 20 points with 5:30 to go in the fourth. The Warriors received a great night from their bench, outscoring Cleveland's reserves, 45-10. Starting guard J.R. Smith, on the roster for offense, took a grand total of three more shots than I did and I didn't suit-up. I expect a different approach in game two on Sunday. I expect a more focused effort early-on and throughout the game. LeBron James and Kevin Love played well for most of the game. I expect others to step up and fill their roles next time out. The Cavs defended Steph Curry and Klay Thompson well, but couldn't overcome Shaun Livingston and Leandro Barbosa combining for 31 points on 13 of 15 shooting, including 4 of 4 from behind the arc. I don't believe we'll see such bench dominance in game two. I'm grabbing the points with the Cavaliers on Sunday, my Knockout GOM. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Cleveland on Thursday night. A lot is made of the job Andre Igoudala did in last year's Finals, and rightly so. Igoudala was a thorn in LeBron's side and then some. But the Cavaliers' are a different looking team a year later and will present a different challenge. With all hands on deck this year, a jump-shooting team will win the NBA championship, whether it's Cleveland or Golden State. When the Cavs traded for the services of Channing Frye, we were on-air, doing a radio show, and said it was a key factor that would get the Cavs back to the Finals. Yes, having LeBron on the team made that a bit easier to predict. But the reason we felt Frye would be a difference maker is the fact the Cavaliers can now space the floor like never before, thanks to the Frye/Love duo. The huge spacing, something the Warriors didn't face in this year's regular season meetings, has allowed the Cavs' screen-and-rolls to be of the elite variety when it involves James & Love. And let's not fail to mention, Frye's ability to take "bigs" outside gives Cleveland yet another dimension. The Cavs will need help from the bench when GSW goes small, and Frye is not a dominant rebounder, but that's something we believe could effect the series more than it will game one. All this and I haven't even mentioned Kyrie Irving being healthy this time around. The Cavs enter on a 12-2 ATS run when playing just their second game in seven days, outscoring the opposition by an average score of 105-91. They're also on an 11-3 ATS run when facing teams that make at least 46% of their FGA. We expect the situations to continue trending in a winning direction, at least in game one. I'm grabbing the points with the Cavaliers, my Thursday Slam Dunk. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Thunder on Saturday night. We had the Warriors last time out, and while we covered and cashed the ticket, I didn't expect the contest to be as close as it was. OKC, despite being in a pretty tough playoff spot, had their chances down the stretch even though Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook got very little help from their teammates. The two took too many shots. 59 to be exact. I expect the Thunder to return to what they did in games three and four. Look for others to get involved early in this one, including Roberson and Waiters, who shot a combined nine FGA, scoring just six total points in the game five loss. The two combined for 27 points and Roberson grabbed 12 boards in game four, after combining for 26 points in game three. Golden State had to hold on for dear life, despite finishing +18 in points in the paint, +13 in fast break points, and dead-even in rebounding. I don't believe they'll duplicate those numbers tonight. We should also note that the lineup that gave GSW a boost early in the fourth quarter didn't include a single starter for part of the surge and just one starter (Harrison Barnes) for a couple more trips up-and-down the floor. We also expect Steven Adams to have a bigger presence early-on, after suffering early foul trouble on Thursday. OKC enters on a 12-3-1 ATS run following a SU loss. They're 4-0 ATS in their last four home games, and 5-0-1 in their last six at home against GSW. Meanwhile, the Warriors are on a 0-4 ATS slide following their last four SU wins. I'm backing Oklahoma City minus the points, my Knockout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Raptors on Friday night. We had Cleveland in game five and obviously didn't expect a 38 point win. Toronto was historically bad, but they're back home and the host has dominated play between these teams. It's more than home court advantage though. We like the fact that Jonas Valanciunas returned in game five, "shaking off some rust" and scoring nine points in 18 minutes. With a game under his belt, he might not be in full game shape yet, but he is expected to see more time. His return means more looks in the paint on the offensive end, which can calm things down for the Raptors, who were all over the place last time out. This also should open things up a little more for the Toronto backcourt, which played horribly after very good performances at home. The Cavs did a terrific job getting Kevin Love involved early and often on the offensive end in the game five win. But I expect a couple of adjustments to deny, or at least offer some resistance on screen-and-rolls tonight. The Raptors have covered four straight home games against the Cavaliers and they're on an 8-1 ATS run at home against strong teams, those that outscore their opponents by at least three ppg. I'm taking the points with the Raptors, my Slam Dunk on Friday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Golden State on Thursday night. We had the Cavaliers last night, off a pair of games on the road where they looked quite beatable. The Cavs responded with a 38-point blowout win. No, I don't expect the Warriors to win by 38, but I do expect to see the heart of a champion, putting forth their best possible performance with their season on the line, ending in a spread covering game five win. Make shots and all will be forgiven. They've also had two games and a day off to adjust to the lineup that has given them their most trouble. That's the OKC group of Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka, Andre Roberson, Rusell Westbrook, and Dion Waiters. That group, when on the floor together, has given the Warriors fits. But I expect adjustments to be made on the same floor where the Warriors have gone 46-3 SU. I'm also not buying a reporter's quote that Steph Curry is playing at 70% health. We do know that the last time on this floor, GSW crushed OKC, 118-91. We do know that the Warriors are on a 21-8 ATS run in revenge of a loss where the opponent scored at least 100 points. And GSW fits a 42-17 NBA league wide ATS spot, backing teams in revenge of a loss by 20 or more points, if they're also off a SU loss by at least 15 points as a favorite. GSW closed a short fave and lost by 24 in game four, fitting all required steps. I'm laying the points with Golden State, my NBA GOY. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Cavaliers on Wednesday night. "I had a lot of great shots, I just didn't knock them down." That was Kevin Love's (probable tonight) assessment of his play on the offensive end in games three & four in Toronto. The fact is, the Cavs got away from what worked in the first two games at home. They didn't have the same rotations on screen-and-rolls, but I expect a return to form tonight. As rough as things looked for Cleveland in Toronto, the fact is, they had a chance to take game four, holding a lead with 4 1/2 minutes to go in the fourth quarter, and trailing by just a bucket with 90-seconds to go. Cleveland fought their way back from a 16-point halftime deficit, but looked gassed over the final couple of minutes and couldn't complete the comeback. The Cavs are on a perfect 5-0 ATS run at home and they have crushed solid opposition like Toronto at tonight's venue. The Cavaliers are 8-1 ATS at home against teams playing between .600 & .700 basketball, outscoring those opponents by an average of 113-98. The Raptors have dropped four straight road games ATS and the home team is on a 7-0 ATS run between these two teams. Back home, I expect the Cavs to get back on track, make the shots they missed in game four, and win by a spread covering margin. I'm laying the points with the Cavaliers, my Wednesday Slam Dunk. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Golden State on Tuesday night. The Warriors are off an embarrassing blowout loss in game three and we believe they'll bounce back here. We had OKC last time out and expected big games from Durant & Westbrook and we got exactly that. The game was actually tied at 40 in the second quarter before OKC finished the half on a 32-7 run. Golden State looked to pack it in after that, looking forward to the rest of the "war," understanding the "battle" had been lost. GSW made just 2 of 23 shots in that late first half OKC run and Draymond Green was a disaster throughout the game. But GSW is a perfect 12-0 SU (9-3 ATS) off a SU loss this season and we also don't expect 33 "free" points given to OKC at the FT line (37 attempts). I expect a much more aggressive Golden State squad in game four. The Warriors are 10-2 ATS this season in revenge, outscoring the 12 opponents by an average of 120-105. We'll look for another cover in this one. I'm laying the points with the Warriors, my Main Event. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Cavaliers on Monday night. Tough outing for the Cavs last time out after cruising passed the Raptors in games one and two. Cleveland had an off night shooting wise, especially Kyrie Irving (probable) and Kevin Love, who combined to make just four of 28 FGA. Bismack Biyombo set the tone for game three and the Cavs took one to the chops. But I expect Cleveland to bounce back in spread covering fashion and I also expect LeBron James to set the tone on Monday. His Cavs are in a strong NBA-wide situation. NBA favorites of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points are 27-6 ATS if they're off a double-digit loss as a road favorite, provided they scored less than 85 points. And road teams in general are 44-18 ATS if they're off a loss as a favorite and their opponent is off a win as a home dog. I'm laying the points with the Cavaliers, my Situational Slam. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with OKC on Sunday night. After beating the Warriors in game one, some thought that there might be a letdown by the Thunder in game two. OKC was looking good, up 47-46 with a little more than a minute to go in the second quarter and then the wheels came off. Thanks to turnovers and poor shot selection, the Thunder were outscored 11-2 to close the half. And after pulling within seven with less than eight minutes to go in the third quarter, the Thunder once again fell apart and Golden State took advantage with a 21-5 run, putting the game out of reach. Basically, after the intermission, the Thunder were done. OKC committed too many unforced turnovers and while Kevin Durant found his shooting touch in game two, Russell Westbrook was nowhere to be found. I believe both players, along with the so called supporting cast will be on the same page for the first time this series in game three. This means a return to dominance on the glass and fewer bonehead moves with the basketball. I also expect a cleaner game from Durant. OKC enters on a 5-0 ATS run off a SU loss and they're on a 3-0-1 ATS run at home against the Warriors. I'm taking the points with the Thunder, my Sunday Slam Dunk. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Raptors on Thursday. We had the Cavaliers last time out and I mentioned in the analysis that Cleveland's experience advantage would show-up in game-one. We also had Toronto fresh off a hard-fought seven game series with Miami and playing with short rest. That made it tough to adjust to the quicker paced game they'd see against Cleveland and the Raptors were never in the contest. Now they've had a game to adjust, to get their legs under them, and to make the adjustments with Jonas Valanciunas sidelined. Toronto has been here before this postseason, suffering double digit losses to Indiana and Miami, bouncing back with SU wins all four times, by an average margin of 11.5 ppg. We don't need them to win outright in this one. In fact, with the big point-spread, we only need the Raptors to hang the number and we believe they will. Cleveland went inside in game-one, surprising the Raptors a bit after the Cavs had crushed the Atlanta Hawks from behind the arc. Look for Toronto to make the defensive adjustments, including not allowing James & Love much room to begin their screen-and-rolls. The Cavs are excellent when those two are the key ingredients, but as reported, their points per chance drops to the likes of Sacramento & Utah when anyone else is involved in Cavalier screen-and-rolls. I also expect a better game from the Raptor backcourt, including Kyle Lowry, who looked overwhelmed by it all in game-one. Again, this was no surprise to us. The Raptors enter on a 13-5 ATS run against teams playing better than .600 basketball. Dwane Casey's teams are 42-24 ATS off a double digit road loss, and NBA road dogs are 75-46 ATS off a loss by 20 or more, provided the home team is off a win. I'm grabbing the points with the Raptors, my Knockout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Thunder on Wednesday. We backed the Thunder on these pages in game one and collected the win. I mentioned in my game one write-up that it would be interesting to see if the new-look lineup for OKC, the "big" lineup with Steven Adams and Enes Kanter would inflict as much damage on Golden State that it did on San Antonio. We found out, at least in game one, that it did. Brilliant coaching by Billy Donovan when he kept his big lineup on the floor when Golden State attempted to dictate lineup changes, going small at times in the second half. Donovan didn't budge and OKC won outright. OKC is 1-3 SU this season against the Warriors, but could have won all four games. The Thunder trailed by one point with 2 1/2 minutes to go in the first meeting at Golden State. They led after three quarters and trailed by just two baskets with 4 1/2 minutes to go in the most recent regular season meeting at Oracle Arena. And the Thunder led by four points with 11-seconds to go in regulation in the lone meeting in OKC, before losing by three in OT. Also, after Monday's game, OKC has out-rebounded GSW in all four games. It appears the Thunder have learned to win games late, rather than letting leads slip away this postseason. The Warriors couldn't handle Russell Westbrook at either end of the floor in the second half in game one. He scored 24 points over the final two quarters, to go with 12 assists and six rebounds. The Adams/Kanter combo opens up big time space on screen-and-rolls and the Warriors had no answer. Having said that, Kevin Durant was off-kilter in game one, making just 10 of 30 shots, but I'd expect a concerted effort to get his shot back in game two. If Durant improves even just a little, GSW is going to continue to have trouble on the defensive end. We should note the Thunder enter on a 10-2 ATS run on the road against teams playing better than .600 home basketball. They're also on a 4-0 ATS run, overall. And let's not forget how well they play against quality 3-point shooting teams, currently on a 15-5 ATS run against those who make at least 36% of their treys. I believe the number is too high and I'm taking the points with the Thunder, my Slam Dunk. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Cavaliers on Tuesday night. Cleveland has yet to be challenged, sweeping each of their two playoff series thus far. Kevin Love was lost in the first round of last year's playoffs, but this time, he's healthy and adding yet another dimension to the Cavaliers' attack. Cleveland made 77 3-pointers in the sweep of the Hawks and Toronto will have to pay attention to the deep perimeter, while making sure they aren't taken advantage of inside. It's a tough spot, made even tougher with the injury to Jonas Valanciunas, who is out indefinitely. And obviously, the Cavaliers own a big advantage in experience. I do believe that edge will show in game one. The Raptors enter on a 1-5 ATS slide off a SU win, while the Cavaliers are on a 12-3 ATS run against teams playing better than .600 basketball. I'm laying the points with the Cavaliers, my Knockout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the run line with the Cubs on Tuesday night. Chicago enters with a 13-3 record on the road this season and 12 of those 13 wins covered the run line. Their last six road wins have come by a combined score of 53 to 6, and 28 of their last 32 wins, overall, have also covered the RL. If you believe Chicago is going to win, you may as well back lay the 1 1/2 runs. The Cubs have dominated the Brewers, winning 14 of the last 15 meetings and will aim for their 8th straight win at Miller Park. Kyle Hendricks is having a strong season, especially in his last three starts, posting a 1.53 ERA & 0.79 WHIP. Hendricks, like the Cubs, has dominated the Brewers, including a 0.49 ERA in three starts at this venue. Chase Anderson is not enjoying his new "digs." The former Diamondback has allowed 24 earned runs, 48 base runners, and 9 HRs in his last 24 1/3 IP. He's made three starts at Miller this season and has been smashed, bringing a 7.43 ERA & .356 BAA into this start. Finally, while the Cubs have averaged 5.6 rpg in their last 38 as a road favorite of -125 or higher, the Brewers have averaged just 2.4 rpg in their last 39 against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.05 or lower. The Cubs are my Run Line Wipeout on Tuesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Thunder on Monday. After getting crushed by San Antonio in game one of their previous series, Billy Donovan and OKC made the adjustments, going big with a nice mix of Adams, Kanter, and Ibaka, and with step-up play from Dion Waiters at times throughout the series. Not all of the adjustments will work against Golden State the way they did against the Spurs. But OKC, despite losing all three meetings with the Warriors this season, had their chances to win all three. The Thunder trailed by one point with 2 1/2 minutes to go in the first meeting at Golden State. Enes Kanter finished with 14 points and 15 rebounds in 19 minutes of action. The Thunder led after three quarters in the most recent meeting at Oracle Arena, and trailed by just two baskets in the final 4 1/2 minutes. And the Thunder led by four points with 11-seconds to go in regulation in the lone meeting in OKC, before losing by three in OT. OKC out-rebounded GSW in all three games, but couldn't overcome 20 of 68, 29% shooting from behind the arc. Oklahoma City knows they can play with Golden State and they believe they can win, coming close in all three regular season meetings. They also know they can beat elite NBA teams on the road, taking two of three from a Spurs' team that lost just one home game all season. The Warriors have topped 105 points in seven straight games, but this is not a good thing for certain NBA favorites of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points. Home faves in that range have covered just 18 of 68 after scoring 105 or more points in at least five straight games. And let's not forget the Warriors struggled at times with Portland's backcourt and allowed 120, 125, and 121 points in their last three games against the Blazers. OKC enters on a 6-1 ATS run on the road against teams with a winning home mark and I'm backing the dog here. I'm taking the points with the Thunder, my Slam Dunk on Monday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Raptors on Sunday. Miami resorted to small ball following the injury to Hassan Whiteside, who is out indefinitely with a MCL injury. While Toronto looked caught off-guard, we expect to see adjustments made to what the Heat are doing. And if Miami attempts to get a little more traditional, Toronto can obviously switch back quickly, even with Jonas Valanciunas sidelined by an ankle injury. In fact, we feel the Raptors are better equipped at either style of play, now that they have seen Miami's small ball version. The Heat enter having covered just four of their last 13 road games, while the chalk between these two teams is on a 13-6 ATS run. Toronto got the proverbial monkey off their back with the game seven win over Indiana in their first round series and we expect another winning elimination game here. We'll back the Raptors minus the points, our Sunday Slam Dunk. Thanks & GL! Scott.

I'm laying the points with the Spurs on Tuesday night. Some questioned whether or not Billy Donovan could coach at the NBA level. The answer is a definite - yes. Donovan's Thunder trailed going into the fourth quarter of game four and the Thunder looked like the second best team on the floor. The former Florida Gators coach then gambled...and won. As seen, but lightly reported, Donovan went to a lineup consisting of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Steven Adams, Dion Waiters, and Enes Kanter. The lineup gave OKC scorers at every position. The lineup worked and the Spurs looked off kilter down the stretch. But the chess match continues and there's no reason to think Gregg Popovich won't make the correct adjustments on Tuesday. Don't be surprised to see more minutes for the "Big 3." San Antonio heads into this one on a 30-12 ATS run when tied in a playoff series. They're 18-5 ATS in revenge of a double digit road loss, outscoring the 23 opponents by an average of 108-96. I expect a quick adjustment by the Spurs and I'm laying the points, my Tuesday Slam Dunk. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Warriors on Monday night. Steph Curry is listed as doubtful for this one, but after a poor performance last time out, I expect his teammates to bounce back strong even if he doesn't suit-up. Golden State jumped out to a 28-22 lead after one quarter of play on Saturday and all things looked well. But Klay Thompson and Draymond Green took a break and spent the opening minutes of the second quarter on the bench and the team never got back on track, getting outscored 36 to 18 in the second and that was that, for all intents and purposes. Thompson stated his team began shooting the ball too quickly, rather than working the ball for better shots. I believe they'll go a bit deeper into the shot-clock on Monday. The Warriors were simply off kilter, even making just 58.8% of their FTA. The last time Golden State lost with Curry sidelined, they came back and crushed the Rockets 121-94 in Houston to take a 3-1 series lead. They're 18-6 ATS off a double digit loss as road chalk, outscoring the 24 opponents by an average of 115-103. And we note that NBA road teams are on a 43-18 ATS run if they're off a loss as a favorite, provided their opponent is off a home win as an underdog. I'm laying the points with the Warriors, my Knockout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Thunder on Sunday night. We passed game one of the series, but have played and cashed the last two games, winning with OKC in game two and the Spurs last time out. We got what we thought we would in the Thunder's game two victory, but we felt fortunate to cover with San Antonio two nights ago. Even that particular win showed us the Spurs are having some trouble with OKC's athleticism. LaMarcus Aldridge was terrific again and he had plenty of help from Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker, yet the Thunder had their chances before losing by four. Russell Westbrook couldn't shoot straight, making just 10 of 31 shots and committed five turnovers, or we might be looking at a 2-1 series lead for the Thunder. Durant took just 18 FGA in the loss and I expect KD to be much busier on the offensive end in this one. Toss in Steven Adams dominant work on the glass and OKC is going to be a tough out. San Antone has struggled when playing with just one day off between games, covering just five of their last 17 in this spot. NBA underdogs, playing .600 to .750 basketball on the season, are on a 42-15 ATS run if they're trailing in a playoff series, provided their opponent is an elite one, playing at least .750 basketball. Finally, OKC is on an 11-3 ATS run at home against the Spurs. I'm backing the Thunder, my Knockout on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Spurs minus the points on Friday. We passed game one and cashed with the Thunder in game two. A quick recap - the Spurs were outplayed virtually start to finish in the loss. There were also some odd player combos throughout the contest by Gregg Popovich, which if you didn't watch the game, you can read about on a couple of the Spurs' newsworthy websites. Having said that, I expect Pop and the Spurs to get back to their normal pick-and-rolls (like they executed in game one), and back on track in game three. After all, it's what they do. The Spurs are 29-12 ATS when tied in a playoff series. They're also on a 9-1 ATS run in revenge of a SU loss as a favorite of seven or more, outscoring the 10 opponents by an average of 103-88. We also have a different situation for San Antonio's older veterans in this one, coming in with three days rest after playing game two with just one day off between games. NBA teams are on a 42-20 ATS run when the line is in the +3/-3 range, provided they're off a loss as home chalk and have played no more than three games in 10 days. And finally, OKC has covered just nine of their last 29, allowing 106 ppg, when the line is in tonight's range of +3/-3. I'm laying the short points with the Spurs, my Friday Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Raptors on Thursday. As poorly as the Toronto starting backcourt shot in game one, the Raptors still managed to take the Heat to OT, before losing the contest. But Miami suffered some bumps and bruises, including nagging injuries suffered by Hassan Whiteside and Dwyane Wade. While both are expected to play tonight, they're also expected to be less than 100% healthy. And let's not forget that before the loss, Toronto had won the last three meetings at home by nearly 13 ppg, with the closest margin coming in a 112-104 victory. Toronto has alternated wins and losses since April 21 and I expect the trend to continue in a spread covering manner. Toronto has played well against solid shooting teams, going 11-3 ATS against opponents who make 46% of their FGA on the season. Meanwhile, the Heat have not helped bankrolls in tonight's situation, covering just 11 of their last 35 off a road win. I'm laying the points with the Raptors, my Slam Dunk on Thursday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Raptors on Tuesday night. Miami staved off a pair of elimination games and finished on top with a blowout win over Charlotte in game seven. We had both the Heat and the Raptors on Sunday, having to settle for a split after it looked like Toronto was going to give us the sweep. The Raptors had little trouble with Indiana for most of the second half, holding an 83-69 lead well into the fourth quarter and leading by 10 with four minutes to go. Unfortunately, for Toronto backers, they scored just six points over the final 7:31 of the game. But part of that may have been the pressure they were feeling trying to end a playoff drought. Now they can focus on beating Miami without the extra pressure and I believe they'll grab game one by a spread covering margin. Miami enters have covered just two of their last 10 road games and the favorite in this series is on a 10-3 ATS run. Meanwhile, home chalk of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points are on a 30-9 ATS run if the road team is off a win by 20 or more against a division rival and the home team is off a SU win. Finally, Toronto has hosted Miami three times since March of 2015, winning by nearly 13 ppg and covering all three. In fact, the closest margin of victory came in a 112-104 win as a 6 1/2 point favorite on March 12 of this season. I'm laying the points with the Raptors, my Tuesday Slam Dunk. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the run line with the Cubs on Tuesday. We don't see any reason to buck the Cubs' 18-0 run when Jake Arrieta toes the rubber. All five of his starts have landed in the win column in 2016, and all covered the run line, with the Cubs winning by an average margin of nearly 8 rpg! We know how untouchable Arrieta has been with the Cubs, no need to rehash it. But we should point out how misleading Jonathan Niese's numbers have been in 2016. Niese is 3-0 and the Pirates have won all five of his starts, despite a 5.08 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and a .292 BAA. Niese has a 2.23 HRs/9 IP ratio and his K/BB ratio is a weak 10:7 in his last three starts. Niese has been at his worst in the month of May over the last three seasons, spanning 16 starts. He'll face a Cubs' lineup ranked 5th, 2nd, and 2nd in road team batting average, OBP, and OPS, respectively. Meanwhile, the northsiders pen ranks 7th in ERA and 2nd in BAA, much better than Pittsburgh's pen so far in 2016. The Cubs are on a 20-3 regular season road run, including 11-3 this season. No less than 10 of those 11 road wins have covered the RL, and they have outscored their last four "hosts" by a whopping 40 to 3! Finally, Arrieta is 6-1 with a 1.68 ERA in nine starts against the Pirates. Like we said above, we see no reason to buck Arrieta in this one. I'm laying the RL with the Cubs, my Wipeout release on Tuesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm grabbing the points with the Thunder on Monday night. No need to rehash the opening game of the series, other than to say it's hard to imagine OKC playing any worse and a couple of Spurs' playing any better. I certainly expect a bounce back here and that's been typical of NBA road dogs off a loss by 20 or more against teams off a home win. Those dogs are on a 74-45 ATS run. The cover last time out was the first in six games for the Spurs against teams playing better than .600 basketball. San Antone has also struggled when playing with just one day off between games, covering five of their last 16. Look for Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook to bring their best on Monday and keep this one close throughout. Finally, NBA road dogs with a winning record are on a 40-15 ATS run when trailing in a playoff series, provided the opponent is playing at least .750 basketball on the season. I'm taking the points with the Thunder, my Slam Dunk. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Raptors on Sunday. The road team has taken two of the games in this series, but I believe that stops here. The Pacers whipped the Raptors last time out, but Dwane Casey has gotten the most out of his teams off bad losses, going 41-23 ATS off a double digit road loss. The Raptors not only won 56 games, but because of players like DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry, Toronto has been called the greatest threat to the Cavaliers' attempt to win their second straight conference title. Toronto has yet to play their best game on the offensive end, yet can still win the series. And we do have history on our side. Only five 7-seeds have knocked 2-seeds from the postseason in 32 years. I do like the matchups and believe DeRozan will come through on the offensive end, leading his team to a spread covering win. I'm laying the points with the Raptors, my Knockout on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Miami Heat in their decisive game seven tilt with Charlotte. The Heat crushed Charlotte in the first two games of the series, before the Hornets adjusted, the Heat hit the offensive skids, and Charlotte won three straight games. But Miami turned the corner in Charlotte last time out, making correct adjustments of their own on the offensive end. The Heat scored 59 first half points and held on in the second half for the 97-90 road win. Now Miami returns home for game seven, on an 8-1 ATS run in South Beach. They're also on a 13-5 ATS run against teams that score 99 or more ppg, outscoring those 18 teams by an average final score of 110-100. I expect more of the same in this one and I'm laying the points with Miami, my Slam Dunk. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Miami Heat on Wednesday night.  The home team is 4-0 SU/ATS in this series and we expect the home team to win and cover again.  Miami came very close to taking a 3-1 series lead before losing game four, 89-85.  The Heat made just 39% of their FGA, got out-shot 30-21 at the FT line, outscored 25-14, and finished with a minus-seven turnover margin.  The Heat simply played poorly, yet had a chance, down by just two points over the final minute of the game.  Now back home I expect Dwyane Wade and company to regain their shooting prowess. Wade made 19 of 38, 50% of his shots in game's one and two.  The Heat are on a 7-0 ATS run at home against teams with a losing road record and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games, overall. They're also 9-1 ATS at home off a loss by six points or less, winning by an average of 104-92. The Hornets will want to take shots early in the clock again and they will fire it up from behind the arc, but that plays into Miami's hands at home where the Heat are on a 13-5 ATS run against teams that take at least 18 3-pointers per game.  Miami outscored those 18 opponents by an average of 111-101. We'll back the home team to make it five straight...I'm laying the points with Miami, my Eastern Conf Knockout. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Atlanta Hawks on Tuesday night. The Hawks couldn't have shot much worse last time out, yet still had a chance to capture game four on a team that doesn't give up much on their home floor. Atlanta made just 12 of 43 3-pointers and connected on only nine FTs, but still took the Celtics to OT. The Hawks held a decent sized lead with 9:16 to go in the fourth quarter, then scored just four points over the next 7 1/2 minutes of game time. But we're talking about a team that closed the regular season extremely well, winning 15 of 20, and finished 27-14 at home on the season. Boston was another team that played well at home, but they finished a game under .500 on the road, where they're just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 against teams playing better than .600 basketball at home. Atlanta has lost the last two games in this series, but they're on a 15-5 ATS run in revenge of two losses, provided the opponent scored at least 100 points in each game. And the Hawks have owned Boston in three of their last four home wins against them, winning by scores of 118-107, 121-97, and 89-72. Even game-one's close call in this series was a bit misleading as the Hawks led by 18 points in the third quarter before seemingly taking their foot off the gas. They stayed focused throughout in game two and I expect more of the same in this one. I'm laying the points with the Hawks, my Knockout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Atlanta Hawks on Sunday. Boston jumped out to a 17 point lead by the end of the first quarter in game three, but with two minutes to go in the game, it was anyone's to win. Atlanta took it to the wire despite making just 9 of 36 3-pointers and shooting 12 fewer free throws than Boston. And of course, there was the big night from Isaiah Thomas, who threw down 42 points for the C's. Atlanta can't play much worse than they did for at least 24 minutes of game time last time out, yet had a chance to win the game. Tonight, I expect the Hawks to get back on track and to leave Boston with the game four win. The Celtics are still a banged-up basketball team, once again missing Avery Bradley. Atlanta enters on a 17-6 SU run and beat Boston five straight times by an average margin of more than 12 ppg. I expect another win here. I'm taking the points with the Hawks, my Sunday Slam Dunk. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Golden State Warriors on Sunday afternoon. The Warriors not only could have won game three without Steph Curry (ankle), but apparently, they should have. According to the NBA, James Harden should have been called for a personal foul on his game winning shot. But we're happy with the situation. Curry is expected to return and we believe the Warriors will win by a wide, spread covering margin. Golden State, the league's top shooting team and 3-point shooting squad, came within a point of the road win last time out despite making just 6 of 25 3-pointers and finishing with a minus-15 rebound margin. NBA road teams are 42-17 ATS if they're off a road loss as chalk and the opponent is off a home win as an underdog. And Golden State is on an 18-7 ATS run in revenge of a road loss over the last two seasons, averaging 112 ppg in the 25 outings. One final note: We will lay the points whether Curry plays or not. But again, he's been upgraded to probable for Sunday's contest. The Warriors minus the points are my Knockout GOM. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Pistons on Friday. Detroit had their chances in game one, which included a seven-point lead early in the fourth quarter and a small, three-point deficit with just over two minutes to go before falling 106-101. They led by a basket midway through the third quarter of game two, but then went silent, not scoring a single point for three minutes and scoring a total of just six points over an eight-minute span from the late stages of the third quarter through the first few minutes of the fourth. I expect different results at home. Detroit is actually 12-3 ATS at home and in revenge of a double digit loss. The Cavs will be hard-pressed to continue their torrid streak from area code 3. Cleveland made 32 of 73, 44% of their treys at home in the first two games, combined, which is the equivalent of making 48 of 73, or 66% from inside the arc. All that from a team that made 36% of their 3-pointers on the season. I like the fact Detroit is playing a physical series, they just need to get out on the perimeter quicker, which I believe they'll do now that they're home. Besides the 12-3 ATS spot mentioned above, the Cavs are 1-5 ATS in their last six following a double digit win. I'm grabbing the points with the Pistons, my Friday KO. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with OKC on Thursday night. The postseason has been pretty ugly with blowout after blowout. It seems as though only half of the 16 teams actually belong in the playoffs. OKC crushed Dallas in the series opener, but unlike several other series, the Thunder slipped-up in game two and actually lost outright at home laying roughly 14 points. The Thunder are 39-20 ATS off a home loss by no more than three points, and Dallas has been horrible against teams that make at least 46% of their FGA, covering six of 24 in the second half of the last two seasons. The Mavs are also on a 0-5 ATS slide at home. We also expect better results from the best player on the floor, Kevin Durant. The Thunder star missed 26 of his 33 FGA in game two. Add in Russell Westbrook's poor outing and the two combined for a 15 of 55, 27% shooting night. Obviously, if they were to repeat those numbers, OKC would be in trouble. But I expect Durant & Westbrook to come out of the locker room like men possessed. Dallas is a walking "MASH" unit right now and even Dirk Nowitzki will be less than 100% healthy after suffering a bone bruise to his knee in game two. There's even been swelling, but the Dallas star says he'll give it a go. Whether he plays or not, we expect a game that resembles game one more than game two. I'm laying the points with the Thunder, my Main Event on Thursday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Pistons on Wednesday. Detroit had their chances in game one, which included a seven-point lead early in the fourth quarter and a small, three-point deficit with just over two minutes to go before falling 106-101. The Cavs were a virtual three-man team with LeBron, Irving, and Love, scoring a combined 81 of the team's 106 points. The rest of the team made a grand total of just 11 FGs. Six Piston players scored between 21 and 9 points and Andre Drummond & Tobias Harris were strong on the glass. And of course, Reggie Jackson did a fine job directing traffic. The one change Detroit has mentioned is to give Stanley Johnson more playing time. Johnson was outstanding in game one, but played just 16 1/2 minutes. He can be a difference maker down the stretch. The Pistons enter on a 9-2 ATS run in Cleveland and the road team in this series has covered four straight. The Cavaliers have covered just four of their last 14 home games against teams with a losing road record. I'm grabbing the points with the Pistons, my DogPound release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Memphis Grizzlies on Tuesday night. We expect San Antone to leave home up two games to none, but we also expect to see everyone playing if this one gets out of hand. There are two players who can do some damage for the visitors in this one, Vince Carter and Lance Stephenson and I suspect both will get their chances for plenty of one-on-one looks in this one. The two combined for 30 points on 12 of 18 shooting in limited action. Memphis must attack, but not get bogged down playing catch out front like they did in game one. Do so, and SAS will turn them over. I believe Memphis will stay away from that mistake tonight. Before Sunday, Memphis played at San Antonio twice this season, losing by margins of six points and 10 points. They were a 13 point dog in San Antone just a few weeks ago and we're getting value with the Grizzlies tonight. We should note that double digit dogs off a loss are now 34-17-2 ATS in the opening round after both Dallas & Houston covered last night. Road teams are on a 40-15 ATS run when trailing in a postseason series, provided they have a winning record and their opponent plays .750 or better basketball. And finally, Memphis is 13-3 ATS on the road and in revenge of a road loss by 20 or more. I'm taking the points with the Grizzlies, my Slam Dunk on Tuesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Indiana Pacers on Monday night. The Pacers clocked the Raptors, 100-90 as a 7-point dog in Toronto in game one. I'm not one to zig-zag in the NBA. The common zig-zag theory in the NBA playoffs has not worked well for a while, and in fact, the oddsmaker grew used to it and began baking likely public reaction into the line. Toronto has truly struggled in the postseason under Dwayne Casey and it's more than a coincidence. They run a ton of isolation plays, relying too much on getting to the FT line. It hasn't worked. The Raptors are 3-9 SU in postseason play under Casey, losing seven straight SU and eight in a row ATS. And if that's not enough, the Raptors are are just 1-5-1 ATS as playoff chalk, winning just two of those games, outright. We could make the argument that the Pacers entered the playoffs a little better than their 45-37 record would indicate. Let's not forget that 20 of their losses came in games where they held a fourth quarter lead. Toronto may find the "sweet elixir" and snap their seven-game outright playoff skid, but I believe it'll go down to the wire. Remember last year's playoffs when Washington upset the Raptors in game one in Toronto then followed it up with a 117-106 upset win in game two, en route to a first round sweep. The pressure will certainly be on the shoulders of the Raptors in this one. There are a few techs worthy of mentioning. The Pacers enter on a 15-0 ATS run off a win by at least 10 points as an underdog of at least six points. Meanwhile, Toronto is on a 5-17 ATS slide in revenge of a SU loss as home chalk over the last two seasons. Combined with the 0-8 ATS slide mentioned above, we have three situations that add up to a 40-5 mark. I'm taking the points with the Pacers, my Monday night Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Atlanta Hawks on Saturday. Boston is a "sexy" underdog to win this series, and even to open up the series with a game-1 win. But we'll buck the general feeling in the opener and side with the team that made it to the Eastern Conf Finals just one year ago. ATL was just 14-12 SU through their first 26 games this season, but went 15-3 SU when it mattered most before dropping the final two games of the season. The Hawks are able to match Boston's style of play and have fared quite well against uptempo teams, those who take at least 83 shots per game. ATL has outscored opponents 107-97 the last 27 times against teams of that ilk. They're 44-23 ATS at home under Mike Budenholzer when facing uptempo teams, outscoring those 67 opponents by an average of 104-96. Meanwhile, the Celtics could have used home floor advantage. While ATL went 27-14 at home this season, Boston finished a game below .500 on the road. They're just 3-14 ATS on the road against teams with a winning home record. Boston won the first meeting of the season, back on November 13. But Atlanta won convincingly in the final three meetings, including an 8-point win in Beantown and two wins in ATL by scores of 118-107 and 121-97. We'll back the Hawks to win and cover game-1. I'm laying the points with the Atlanta Hawks, my Knockout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Miami Heat on Tuesday night. Both teams have something to play for with Detroit looking to potentially overtake Indiana for the 7th seed in the east, while Miami is looking to wrap-up home court in the first round of the playoffs. I don't believe Detroit sees a lot of difference between opening at Cleveland or opening at Toronto, but playing with home court advantage would be a big deal for Miami. The Heat enter on a 20-9 ATS run against teams that average at least 83 shots per game. Those teams are considered uptempo teams (Detroit being one of them) and the Heat outscored those 29 teams by an average score of 107-101. They're also on an 8-1 ATS run against teams that don't get after the basketball, averaging no more than seven steals per game. Miami is the better team and have more to play for in our opinion. While that doesn't equate to an automatic win, we believe we're getting the best of it with the Heat getting points. I'm playing Miami plus the points, my Slam Dunk on Tuesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Rockets on Monday night. Minnesota has played better of late, but they have also been all over the west in April. Now back home after a 3-game sweep on the road, the T-Wolves will attempt to play spoiler. Houston has done themselves no favors and they need help to gain a playoff berth. They do catch a potential break tonight with Utah & Dallas matched against each other. If Houston takes care of business and the Mavs beat the Jazz, the Rockets and Utah will each own a 40-41 record with one game to go. James Harden has been playing like a man possessed of late and I expect him to lead his team to a spread covering win. The Rockets have owned this series, winning six straight and 10 of 11, while covering 11 of the last 15 at Minnesota. The Timberwolves have lost four straight ATS on their home floor and they're in a tough NBA spot tonight. NBA teams are on a 52-18 ATS run if the line is in the range it is tonight and they're facing an opponent allowing 103 ppg or more, provided they're off a win by no more than three points. Both teams fit the bill. Must win doesn't mean will win. But in this case, we'll back the Rockets minus the points on Monday, our Mismatch release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the short points with the Rockets on Wednesday night. Houston is fighting for their playoff lives, trailing Utah by half a game for the 8th and final spot, and currently one full game behind the 7th-seeded Dallas Mavericks. We backed Houston last time out and cashed when they knocked off OKC, 118-110. The Rockets have stepped up their game against the better teams on their schedule, beating Toronto and Cleveland, along with the win over OKC in three of their last five games. They'll take on a banged-up Dallas squad that has paid much more attention to defense rather than the offensive end of late, turning a three-game losing streak and a 2-10 SU slide, into a current four-game winning streak. But three of the four wins came against Denver, New York, and Minnesota, while just one win came against a team playing winning basketball (Detroit). They happened to catch the Pistons in Detroit's first game after a big win over the Thunder. I don't believe the new defensive focus will work against the Rockets, who have averaged 110 ppg in their last nine meetings, winning and covering seven times. Dallas has covered just eight of their last 30 at home off a double digit road win, while Houston is at their best playing with two days off between games, going 17-4 ATS in this scenario. We backed Houston on Sunday and we'll do so again here. I'm laying the points with the Rockets, my Wednesday Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Trail Blazers on Tuesday night. Portland has taken five straight in this series and nine of the last 11. And while we have a Blazers' team, looking to win every game and catch Memphis for 5th in the Western Conference standings, the Kings have questionable motivation. Any wins in their remaining games would jeopardize Sacramento's top-10 draft pick. I'm not saying they don't want to win, but there is that situation hanging over their head. Portland coach Terry Stotts indicated his starters will play right to the very end. He mentioned on the team's website, "The goal is to win every game." A win tonight and Portland could move three full games ahead of 9th place Houston, further solidifying a playoff spot. I believe the team will be focused and play with big-time intensity after losing by 25 points to an angry Golden State team last time out. We should note that certain NBA road teams (including Portland in this instance) are on a 60-26 ATS run if they lost their previous game by at least 20 points. Also, road teams off a SU road loss are on a 63-26 ATS run if the line is in a +3/-3 range, and their opponent is off an outright win as an underdog. Both teams fit the bill in this one. Finally, we like the way Damian Lillard is playing over the last couple of games and we are betting he'll lead his team to an important win and also a cover tonight. I'm laying the points with the Trail Blazers, my Mismatch release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the North Carolina Tar Heels on Monday night. We cashed with the Heels on Saturday, while passing the Villanova/Oklahoma contest. UNC began the game playing a little out of character, attempting too many 3-pointers. But they eventually settled down, finished with their season-long 17 3-point attempts per game average and punished the Orange inside the arc. Tonight I expect the Heels to attack in the paint where they have averaged over 43 ppg during the Big Dance. Villanova caught fire as soon as the tourney began. Remember, the Wildcats shot a ton of treys during the regular season, but they made a mediocre 35% of those attempts. However, they have caught fire at the right time and are making nearly half of all 3-point attempts in the Big Dance. The difference in this game from their previous five is that Villanova is going to have to defend in the paint and I don't believe they match-up well with UNC at either end. I do believe the Heels own the talent and athleticism to deny Villanova open looks from behind the arc at the other end of the floor. The Heels also own something the 'Cats haven't faced in the Dance, which are tall guards. In fact, tall everything. This is a Carolina team with NBA size, which will make it tough for the Villanova guards to drive into the paint and kick the ball out. Deny the paint and Villanova's offense will get frustrated in my opinion. And unlike Oklahoma, the UNC backcourt can create their own shots at the other end. Not only that, but the Heels can work the ball inside whenever they want to check the tempo (if Villanova gets hot from distance). UNC has covered four straight and they're on a 16-5 ATS run in neutral site games, winning by an average of more than 11 ppg. We said UNC was the best team in CBB back in January. We'll back them here against the hottest shooting team in the dance. I'm laying the points with North Carolina, my Championship Slam Dunk. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Houston Rockets on Sunday afternoon. Huge game for the home team today as they continue to fight for a playoff spot in the Western Conference. If the regular season ended last night, Houston would be on the outside looking in. But they have a shot, trailing Dallas and Utah by one game with six to be played. OKC, meanwhile, is all but set with their seeding and we won't be shocked if a few Thunder stars don't see their usual minutes. We also know that Houston has had OKC's number, covering five straight meetings. They've won three straight meetings at home, outright, with the last two coming as an underdog, just like today's situation. We like the spot for the home dog and I'm taking the points with the Rockets, my Daytime Shocker. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with North Carolina on Saturday. Syracuse has shocked the basketball world with their run to the Final Four when many people felt they didn't deserve a spot in the Big Dance at all. I was not one of those people. I did feel they were deserving of an invite, but I didn't believe they'd make it through the second round. Give the Orange credit for the comeback win against Gonzaga and the big come from behind shocker over Virginia. But the defensive changes made in order to speed up the Cavaliers won't work here, in my opinion. North Carolina has the quickness, depth, and athleticism to overcome any defense Syracuse throws at them. Yes, we know the Orange played UNC tough in both regular season meetings, but while Syracuse is likely to be bothered by the sight-lines of NRG Stadium, the Heels will be the least affected of the four remaining teams. The Heels don't worry much about the 3-point line on the offensive end and will instead run their crisp passing offensive attack inside the arc like they have done all season. In order to beat Jim Boeheim's famed-zone, you must have supreme athletes, a crisp passing, and a high octane offense and the Heels have it all. UNC has covered five straight against fellow ACC opponents and they're 7-1 ATS in their last eight, overall. We should also note that UNC is 9-1 ATS under Roy Williams after allowing an opponent to make at least 55% of their FGA. Notre Dame nailed 55.1% of their FGA in the Elite-8 matchup, yet UNC still won by 14 points. Williams spoke about his team needing to focus in on Syracuse shooters better than they did against the Irish. History says they'll get it done. And one final note, UNC is +42 in rebounds in their four Big Dance games, combined. I don't believe we'll see many second chance opportunities for Syracuse in this one. I'm laying the points with North Carolina, my Knockout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Heat on Friday night. Miami blew one against the Lakers in their most recent game and while that one stings, the unexpected loss should keep them focused on the task at hand tonight. DeMarcus Cousins is suspended for tonight's game after accumulating too many technical fouls, and under normal circumstances, it would be easy for the Heat to lose their intensity and focus with the Kings' star on the bench. That's not likely after the loss to the hapless Lakers. Sacramento has split their last 10 games SU, but they're 5-3 SU (6-1-1 ATS) when Cousins plays and 0-2 SU when he sits. In fact, Sacto has won three of four outright. The lone loss came with Cousins on the bench, while he averaged 26 ppg & 11 rpg in the three wins. Miami has enjoyed games against uptempo teams, currently on a 17-6 ATS run against teams that average at least 83 FGA per game and Sacto fits the bill. And finally, with the Kings off a 120-111 home win over Washington as a 1 1/2 point underdog, we have a strong NBA situation that comes into play. NBA road teams are on a 42-16 ATS run if they lost outright when laying points, provided their opponent won outright as a home dog. We have a nice combination of matchup advantages and situations pointing towards Miami. I'm laying the points with the Heat, my Beatdown on Friday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Blazers on Thursday. The Celtics are having their problems in road action against teams with a winning record. They haven't beaten a .500 or better team on the road since February 5, currently on a 0-5 SU/ATS slide against winning teams and losing by an average score of 111-95. All but one of the losses came by at least 14 points and the Celtics will enter this one on a 1-10 ATS slide on the road against teams playing .600 or better home basketball. Portland is not a team that rolls over on their home floor. The Blazers have won five straight home games and 14 of their last 16, and they own home wins over Golden State, Oklahoma City, and Cleveland. They'll look to gain a measure of revenge for an earlier loss to Boston, while also fighting for a Western Conference playoff spot. Portland is currently in 6th in the west, but they're only two games from being on the outside looking in. We should also note that the 116-93 loss at Boston came in a very tough spot for Portland. They were playing their second game in as many nights and their fourth road game in five nights. Besides Boston's 0-5 & 1-10 ATS slides, Portland enters on a 9-2 ATS run when playing with two days rest, the situation they're in tonight. Look for Portland to win by a spread covering margin. I'm laying the points with the Blazers, my Slam Dunk on Thursday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Valparaiso on Thursday night. Valpo felt snubbed by the NCAA selection committee and you can understand why. The Crusaders (30-6 SU) lost to Green Bay in OT to end their Horizon run and were relegated to the NIT. The loss came on a night when Green Bay made 12 of 22 3-pointers, the equivalent of an 18 of 22 night from inside the arc. Since then, Valpo has played with a chip on their shoulder, winning four straight games to get here, including three double digit victories along the way, and a 72-70 win over a tough BYU team in the semifinals. George Washington was impressive in their easy win over San Diego State last time out. But let's face it, the Aztecs didn't belong in the Big Dance, although they felt they did, and they were afforded three straight home games against mediocre teams having to travel to So Cal. And once the Aztecs ventured away from home, they fell right back into the horrible shooting team they have been all season. SDSU, one of the worst shooting teams in the nation, made just 29% of their FGA in the semifinal loss, including 3 of 22 3-pointers. Back to the title game. Valpo is the better defensive team in tonight's NIT championship, holding teams to 63 ppg on 38.9% shooting. They've allowed just 21 made FGs per game, while GWU allows 25.1, while making 25.9 per game. We should note that Valpo makes 25.9 FGs per game, themselves with both of tonight's entries averaging nearly the same amount of attempts. The Crusaders are also the better rebounding team in this matchup. I'm laying the points with Valparaiso, my NIT Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Nevada on Wednesday night. The Wolf Pack came within a 3-pointer of grabbing a road win in game-one of the best of three series, before losing 86-83. Nevada actually led with roughly five minutes to go and if they shot their normal rate at the FT line, they likely would have won the game. Instead, they made just 67% of their attempts, making just 18 of 27 FTA. The Pack have been outstanding at home this season with a 14-3 SU mark. They're 7-1 SU in their last eight home games and have covered nine of their last 10. And speaking of free throws, Nevada averages over 24 attempts per home game, while Morehead State gets whistled quite a bit on the road, allowing over 26 FTA per contest. The Wolf Pack ranks 26th in FG percentage defense and 81st in 3-point defense. I expect defensive play to be the difference in this one with the Eagles struggling on the defensive end for most of the season, including in the first meeting in this series. They have seen their hosts make over 46% of their FGA, while shooting under 42% on the road, themselves. Nevada puts four players in double figures per game, with a fifth player averaging 9.4 ppg. And Cameron Oliver cleans the glass, pulling down nine boards per game. I expect Nevada to even the series at one game apiece, while covering the number along the way. I'm laying the points with Nevada, my Knockout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Dallas Mavericks on Monday night. The Mavs have certainly taken a few beatings on the defensive end of late, but I'm betting they reached rock-bottom in last night's 133-111 loss at Sacramento. They're not at full health, but they have an elite coach and still have a HOF player leading the way. A couple of players questioned their desire last night and mentioned it's time to act like they want to play after the regular season comes to an end. I believe we'll get a top-shelf effort out of Dallas, at least for one night. Denver has been traveling all over the place of late, playing seven of their last eight games on the road, including last night's 105-90 loss to the Clippers in Los Angeles. They're returning home tonight, but I believe they're catching the Mavericks at the wrong time. Dallas enters on an 11-4 ATS run following a loss by 10 points or more, and they have covered five of their last seven, despite facing a tough schedule of late, including two games each against Golden State and Portland, and one each against the Cavaliers, Hornets, Pacers, and Pistons. Dallas has covered seven of the last 10 in Denver. I'm backing the Dallas Mavericks plus the points, my Monday Shocker. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Kansas on Saturday. Villanova couldn't be any hotter, canning shots, seemingly at will. But the Wildcats haven't faced a strong deep perimeter defense in the Dance, at least until now. Kansas has held their opponents to 39.7% shooting this season, including 32.3% from behind the 3-point line. Villanova has made 97 of their last 162 FGA, virtually 60% shooting, while making 33 of 62, 53% of their 3-point attempts. That's obviously some serious shooting, but they haven't faced a stout deep perimeter defense since their Big East tournament matchup with Seton Hall, which ended in a 69-67 Pirate win. Villanova made just 24 of 57 FGA (42%), and just 8 of 23 3-pointers in the loss. And despite taking a lot of treys, that 35% 3-point outing against Seton Hall was on par for Villanova over the course of the season. Kansas owns the length, the athleticism, and the defensive know-how to slow the Wildcat attack. Getting the ball inside and kicking it out has been the blueprint for success for Villanova in the tourney thus far, but Kansas has too many skilled players inside to allow that to happen on a consistent basis. Meanwhile, Graham, Mason, and Selden, are the best trio of backcourt defenders Villanova will have faced. Advantage Kansas. Then there's the other end of the floor, where Kansas ranks in the top-5 in both FG percentage and 3-point accuracy. The Jayhawks enter on a 4-0 ATS run against teams with a winning record and they're 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games, overall. I'm laying the points with Kansas, my Saturday Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Cavaliers on Saturday. Cleveland has won five straight against the Knicks, but New York has been the way to go ATS, covering three of those games. However, this one has a little more meaning to it. The Cavs lost at Brooklyn last time out, allowing 104 points to the hapless Nets. Lebron was none too happy, both on the floor and in the clubhouse. I expect the Cavs to bounce back with a highly focused and intense effort. The Cavs held NY to 84.8 ppg during the five game head-to-head win streak, so this one should be "just what the doctor ordered," to satisfy James and the gang on the defensive end. The Knicks are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games and Kurt Rambis-coached teams have covered just four of 22 at home against teams that average at least 103 ppg. Finally, NBA road teams are 41-16 ATS if they're off a SU loss as a favorite, when facing a team off a SU win as a home underdog. Both teams fit the bill in this one and we'll back the Cavaliers. Cleveland minus the points, a rare Situational Slam Dunk on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Gonzaga on Friday. Syracuse deserved to be in the Dance and I've been saying it since the field was announced. But to think Gonzaga was one WCC tourney loss away from not making the Dance is mind-boggling. Gonzaga owns the type of player to thwart Jim Boeheim's famed 2-3 matchup zone. The Bulldogs are long and athletic and their size on the deep perimeter should give them the advantage tonight. That's the key to this game, along with Gonzaga's underrated play on the defensive end where they rank 26th in FG percentage allowed and 5th defending the 3-pointer. Gonzaga enters on a 7-0 ATS run and we'll back them here. I'm laying the points with Gonzaga, my Bailout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Virginia on Friday night. The Cavaliers play a more deliberate tempo than anyone the Cyclones have faced this season. But UVA does so, not because they can't shoot, which is the case for many teams who play at a slower pace. Instead, the Cavaliers are as efficient as it gets, making 49% of their FGA, including 40% from behind the arc, ranking 10th and 8th in the nation, respectively. An example of how well they play on the offensive end: Virginia nailed over 53% of their FGA and 43% of their 3-point attempts in nine neutral site games this season, while averaging 15.6 apg and just 8.8 tpg. They averaged just 9.1 tpg in 11 road games. Iowa State allowed 80 ppg on the road this season, and while they shaved that to 73 ppg in seven neutral site games, they did allow opponents to make 45% of their FGA. ISU made 50.3% of their FGA on the season, overall, but since Tony Bennett took over at Virginia, the Cavaliers have played 96 games against teams that came into the contest shooting 45% or better. UVA held those 96 teams to an average of 59.5 ppg. And in 146 games as chalk under Bennett, UVA has outscored their opponents by an average margin of 11 ppg. And finally, with the style of play UVA utilizes on the defensive end, this looks to be the game where ISU's lack of depth comes into play. The Cyclones are mainly a six-man team, seven if we stretch it. The Cavaliers enter on a 6-1-1 ATS run and we'll back them to remain red-hot. I'm laying the points with Virginia, my Beatdown on Friday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Blazers on Thursday. The Clippers return home following an unsuccessful five-game road trip that began with a 21 point loss in San Antonio and ended with last night's 16 point loss at Golden State. The bookends to the trip were a serious dose of reality for LAC. The Clippers now know they cannot compete with the elite, at least without a healthy Blake Griffin in the lineup. Griffin remains out indefinitely and his team is wearing down and looking thin. LAC enters Thursday on a 1-7 ATS slide and they're 0-6 ATS against teams with a winning record. They've made just 42.9% of their FGA over their last three games, while their opponents have nailed 47.5% of their's. The Clippers have been out-rebounded by 58 boards in their last five games combined. All signs of a weary and short-handed basketball team. And as reported elsewhere, before last night's game against the Warriors, the Clips had allowed a whopping 109.7 points per 100 possessions. We'll back Portland, who enters on a 16-7 ATS run in same season revenge, outscoring those 23 teams by an average of 106-100. Portland plus the points, my NBA Slam Dunk. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Texas A&M on Thursday. As this line has climbed, we have jumped in. OU has received a big majority of the tickets in this one, moving the number away from our ratings. First of all, we have nothing but the utmost respect for Buddy Hield. But we don't like OU's match-ups against Danuel House and Jaylen Jones, and we feel Sooner forward and leading rebounder Ryan Spangler is in for a tough night in this one when dealing inside against Jones and Tyler Davis. A&M owns a lot of length on the defensive end, making life tougher on OU's deep perimeter game than they're used to. I'm not a big fan of 3-point happy teams and the Sooners take more than 40% of their shots from behind the arc. OU has been overvalued this season, covering just three of their last 16 against teams with a winning record, while failing to cover any of their last seven games, overall. The one caveat would have come if this game was played closer to A&M's big come from behind win over Northern Iowa. But they've had enough time to recover and we believe they'll upset the Sooners. We'll back the Aggies as they look to extend their season and gain a spot in the Elite-8. We're taking the points with Texas A&M, our Sweet-16 Slam Dunk. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Miami on Thursday. Villanova has cruised through the Dance thus far, however, the Hurricanes will be their toughest test yet, by far. Miami rates well above Iowa, Villanova's most recent victim. Meanwhile, Miami beat Buffalo and Wichita State, with an impressive win over the Shockers. Wichita State owned Final-4 potential, and came from behind to take a second half lead over the Hurricanes, but Miami was able to regroup and put the Shockers away. It'll be interesting to see how 3-point-happy Villanova reacts to a strong backcourt at both ends of the floor. Thus far, the Wildcats have made 65 of 111, 59% of their FGA, including 49% of their 3-point attempts. But 42% of their shots have come from behind the arc and I do believe that's going to be a problem for Villanova as the level of competition picks up. Jay Wright's backcourt is going to have to focus more on the defensive end than they did in their first two games because Miami guard Angel Rodriguez is playing like a man on a mission. The senior point-guard has averaged 26 ppg, 4.5 rbg, 4.5 apg, and 3.5 spg so far in the Dance. Add in backcourt mate Sheldon McClellan and I believe Villanova is going to get a little more than they can handle. Miami has held their first two opponents to less than 37% shooting. Villanova is just 1-5 ATS in their last six against the ACC. We should also note that under Jay Wright, the Wildcats have covered just nine of their last 29 after making at least 50% of their FGA in back-to-back games. It's tough to shoot at that superb level, especially when the competition takes a dramatic turn upwards. I'm taking the points with Miami, my Knockout Shocker. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Ohio on Wednesday. A couple of close calls by Ohio to get here, but I expect a more comfortable win margin in this one. The Bobcats have a lot of offensive "outs," with five players averaging between 17.4 ppg and 10 ppg, and while he averages over 15 ppg himself, Jaaron Simmons has been a fantastic creator for everyone around him, piling up 268 assists on the season (7.9 apg), and a better than 2:1 assists/turnovers ratio. His team averages nearly 80 ppg at home, where they make 47% of their FGA and rank 20th in 3-point accuracy. They'll host a Morehead State team that has been hot, putting W's in both the SU and ATS columns, but one that allows over 46% shooting in road action. They've also seen their hosts average 26 FTA per game, while Ohio has averaged over 25 FTA per game at home. MSU is upside down in the assists/turnovers department in true road games. Ohio is on a 7-1 ATS run as home chalk of six or less this season, averaging 83 ppg and allowing 74 ppg. I'm laying the points with Ohio, my Slam Dunk, as they look to extend their non-conference run to 10-2 ATS. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Valpo on Tuesday night. St. Mary's brings balanced scoring and they have shot well on the season. But Valpo brings incredible play on the defensive end that I believe will more than enough to gain the win and cover in front of the home folks. The Crusaders, the veteran team between these two programs, have held teams to less than 63 ppg, the 9th stingiest defense in college basketball. They rank 3rd in the nation in FG percentage defense, holding opponents to 38.4% shooting, and Valpo owns a rebound margin of +13 per contest. They've allowed just 21.5 made FGs per game at home, while forcing guests into a 0.78 assists/turnover ratio, and shut down their first two NIT opponents, winning by double digits in both games. One big advantage that means more in today's style of CBB is the amount of trips Valpo gets to the charity stripe compared to SMC. The Crusaders average more than 23 FTA per home game, while the Gaels average just 15 FTA per game on the road. And speaking of the road, SMC never left the state of California in non-conference play this season. In fact, their first trip out of California overall, came in a conference clash at BYU on February 4, 21 games in to the season. This marks their farthest road trip of the season up to this point. The Crusaders own the top player on the floor tonight with F) Alec Peters, who I expect to be a matchup nightmare for the Gaels. Valpo enters on a 6-1-1 ATS run at home against teams playing better than .600 basketball on the road. They're 9-0 ATS against teams that make at least 45% of their FGA and hold teams to 42% or less. I expect the Crusaders to advance to MSG and I'm laying the points with Valpo, my KO release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday night. No Mike Conley (achilles), but Zach Randolph returned on Saturday night and had a huge game, scoring 28 points, to go along with 11 rebounds, and 10 assists, in a 113-102 win over the Clippers. I do believe the win and Randolph's play are a signal for a play again tonight. The Grizzlies lost both of this season's previous meetings, including a 109-100 loss to the Suns in Memphis just a couple of weeks ago. Phoenix, ranked 29th in the league in shooting, (43.4% FGA), nailed 52% of their FGA in the win. I don't expect that to be the case tonight, while I do expect Randolph to find success at the other end. Phoenix is off a 95-90 win at the Lakers on Saturday as a 4-point underdog. We should note that NBA teams off a double digit home win are on a 31-12 ATS run if the line is in the +3/-3 range and the opponent is off a SU road win as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Suns have covered just five of their last 21. Payback time with Randolph back on the floor. I'm backing the Grizzlies, my Mismatch release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Sacramento Kings on Sunday. The Knicks are in a very tough situation. It's not just that they played last night, but it's the fact they're playing their first home game following a 6-game road trip that ended last night. The game in DC wasn't too far from home, but it did follow a west coast road trip and New York is fragile enough as it is. The team is just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games and Kurt Rambis teams have covered just four of 21 at home against teams that score at least 103 ppg. Sacramento will feature Rajon Rondo and his league-leading assist average and DeMarcus Cousins, facing a Knicks' team that's banged-up on the interior and the backcourt. Sacramento has won and covered three straight in the series and I'm backing them here. I'm backing the Kings, my Slam Dunk on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with UConn on Saturday. Statistically speaking, these teams are closer than the casual observer would think. Kansas is a little better on the offensive end, while the Huskies are a little better on the defensive end. UConn can throw a wrench into the Jayhawks' game plan, at least enough to keep this close. The Big East entry allows just 21.7 made FGs per game on 38.4% shooting. Meanwhile, they nail nearly 80% of their free throws, which could prove very important with Kansas allowing over 22 FTA per game away from home (road & neutral). Daniel Hamilton has dished out 164 assists on the season and two more UConn guards have topped 80 each. The three can hang with the Kansas backcourt duo, top "dishers," Frank Mason and Devonte Graham. And then there's the coaching aspect with Kevin Ollie able to match Bill Self. Ollie coached the Huskies to a national title two years ago and was an assistant on their 2011 national championship team. Meanwhile, Self hasn't advanced beyond the second round of the Big Dance since 2013. We saw UConn's fortitude on Thursday when they came out of the locker room sluggish and fell behind Colorado early. The Huskies looked dead to rights, before Ollie directed his team to a solid, 74-67, come from behind win. The Huskies are on a 37-15-1 ATS run on neutral courts, and they're on a 5-0 ATS run, overall. Finally, UConn has never lost a Big Dance game (7-0 SU) with Ollie as coach. I believe this one will go down to the wire, making the points worth taking. I'm grabbing the points with UConn, my DogPound release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Wichita State on Saturday. Those who have followed me on my Las Vegas radio shows know how much I liked this Wichita State team before the season began. Then injuries and suspensions hit and the Shockers struggled (relatively speaking) in the early portion of the season. But they're clicking on all cylinders at this point, holding seven straight opponents under 60 points. The Shockers have held their first two Big Dance foes to 35.6% shooting, including 24% from behind the arc, and they have produced a +18 turnover margin in the two games. Miami has been outstanding for most of the season, making more than 47% of their FGA, but struggled at times against Buffalo, before winning 79-72 as a 14-point favorite. The difference in the win came at the FT line where Miami scored 10 more points than the Bulls. Miami allows the opposition to nail over 24 FGs per game on 43% shooting, averaging just 1 1/2 more FGs made than the opposition, while WSU makes nearly 25 FGs and allowed less than 19 on 38% shooting. The Shockers also own the much better turnover ratio, including defensively, where they forced the opposition into a 0.61 ratio, allowing just 9.1 assists per game and producing 15 turnovers per game. Wichita enters on a 44-16-2 ATS run off a cover and they're on a 9-3 ATS tourney run. Miami, meanwhile, has dropped four straight games ATS. I'm laying the points with Wichita my Slam Dunk. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Blazers on Friday night. New Orleans won last time out, beating the Sacramento Kings in the finale of a five-game, eight-day road trip that started in Charlotte, NC., and finished with a pair of games in California. The Pelicans are just 3-13 ATS, outscored by an average of 105-95, off a SU road win as an underdog. Also, NBA teams playing between .250 & .400 basketball are 18-43 ATS if the line is +3/-3 and they're off an outright win as a road dog. Defense has been a problem all season for the Pelicans, but they're really banged-up at this point, and have allowed a whopping 114 ppg over their last seven contests. Portland played the Spurs, Thunder, and Warriors in three of their last four games, so a big drop-off in level of competition awaits them on Friday. The Blazers own the much better backcourt and are looking to atone for a 115-89 loss to New Orleans in December. Portland enters on a 5-1 ATS run in their last six against the Pelicans and we feel this is a case of, "just what the doctor ordered," after the Blazers lost last night in San Antonio. We're backing the Blazers, our Knockout on Friday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the chalk with the Oregon Ducks on Friday evening. My power ratings, good enough to have us on a 54-31 winning CBB run, tell me that the two worst teams in the Big Dance are Holy Cross & Southern, the team the Crusaders beat in the play-in game. You need to be able to score points to hang with Oregon if the Ducks care about a non-conference game, and obviously they care about this one. Holy Cross is 327th in scoring per game, 291st in FG percentage, and 265th in 3-point accuracy. The 15-19 (SU) Patriot tourney winners won their final five games just to get to four games under .500. You'd think they play decent denial basketball on the defensive end because of their low-scoring offense, but it's not the case. Holy Cross, ranked 287th in FG percentage defense and 263rd defending the trey, are involved in low-scoring games because of the tempo, not defensive prowess. Oregon should name the score in this one. The Ducks have four players averaging between 16.8 ppg and 12.1 ppg. Casey Benson has a ridiculous assists-turnover ratio, dishing out 103 assists with just 23 turnovers, and Chris Boucher (12.1 ppg) is a beast on the glass, pulling down over 7 1/2 rpg. Over the last five games, the Ducks have averaged over 23 FTA per game, while Holy Cross, too in love with the deep perimeter game, only attempted 16 FTA per game in their last five. A lack of focus would be the only thing that keeps the Ducks from winning big...and there's no reason to believe they'll lack focus at any point in this game, whether the starters or the reserves are on the floor. Oregon is 14-3 ATS under Dana Altman after committing 14 turnovers or less in each of their previous five games. They're 30-11 ATS in all March games he has coached at Oregon, and he's on a 6-1 ATS run in the Big Dance. We saw Virginia and Kansas cover big lines in mismatch's yesterday. I expect Oregon to join that club today. I'm laying the points with Oregon, my Beatdown release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with South Dakota State on Friday. To hang with or beat the Terps, a team's chances improve greatly if they have at least one solid "big," along with a decent backcourt. South Dakota State has it. Forward Mike Daum has the goods to give the Terrapins trouble, averaging over 15 ppg and 6 rpg on the season. Daum has been even better down the stretch, averaging nearly 20 ppg. The backcourt consists mainly of George Marshall and Deondre Parks. The two vets averaging almost 30 ppg combined, and the Jackrabbits have two more guards averaging 9.1 ppg & 8.6 ppg. In all, nine players on the SDSU roster average more than 10 minutes played per game. The Summit League entry allows just 5.9 made treys per contest and they average 23 FTA per game, while Maryland has averaged less than 16 FTA per game over their last five contests, while allowing teams to make 46% of their FGA and 40% of their 3's. The Terps do own a solid front-line, while Melo Trimble leads the team in scoring from the guard position. But Trimble has been struggling on offense of late. Then again, he's shot just 41% on the season, including 33% from behind the arc. Maryland simply didn't close well, winning three of their last eight games, including a 68-63 loss to Minnesota, a team SDSU beat 84-70 on the road. The Jackrabbits have handled good defenses well under Coach Nagy, going 14-4 ATS against teams that hold opponents to 42% shooting or less. I'm betting SDSU will hang the number and I'm taking those points with South Dakota State, my DogPound release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing Gonzaga on Thursday night. The Zags front-line is going to prove to be too much for the Pirates, in my opinion, even with Angel Delagdo on the floor. Mark Few's Bulldogs are good at drawing fouls inside and their offensive attack has balance. Seton Hall won four straight, including the Big East tourney, but they're terrible at the FT line, making just 66% of their chances, and I don't like their assists/turnover ratio which is exactly 1.00. The Pirates average as many turnovers as they do assists. Besides the front-line, Gonzaga can draw players outside, nailing over 40% of their 3-pointers, and when they do get to the FT line, they are 12th in the nation converting those opportunities. The Zags have covered five straight games and they're on a 7-0 SU first round run under Few. Seton Hall has been a spread darling this season, but I'm betting the run ends here. I'm backing Gonzaga, my Bailout Beatdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Fresno State on Thursday. The Bulldogs are a veteran-laden team who captured the MWC with a win over San Diego State, part of a current 9-game winning streak (8-1 ATS). Marvelle Harris is a nightmare matchup for any opposing backcourt. Harris averages 20.6 ppg, nearly 5 rpg, and owns better than a 2:1 assists/turnover ratio on the season. A total of seven Bulldog players average virtually 8 ppg or more. The veteran backourt averages over 8 steals per game and forces 15 turnovers per contest. This is a tough matchup for the Pac-12 runner-up that shoots too many treys for my blood. Fresno is used to facing teams that enjoy the deep perimeter, facing a slate of opponents who averaged over 21 3-point attempts per contest. They're not as big in the paint as Utah, but they fight and contest every single entry pass and shot. And we know the Utah bench is nothing to write home about, with questionable depth. Fresno enters on a 7-0 ATS run against teams with a winning record, and they're also on a 7-0 ATS run against teams that force no more than 12 turnovers per game, (Utah forces 10.2). We'll grab the points with Fresno State, my Main Event Dog. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Yale on Thursday. No news when we state that except for last season, 12-seeds have been the way to go ATS over 5-seeds more often than not. We aren't playing Yale because of this fact, but instead, we believe the Bulldogs rebounding ability will take away one Baylor positive. Yale owns a rebound margin of +11.1 per game. They're also playing very close to home and enter on a smoking-hot 17-1 SU winning run. Yale won 13 of those 17 by double digits and won 15 times by at least nine points. So, yes, the Baylor schedule has been tougher, but the Bulldogs haven't been simply sneaking by teams. And while Yale enters on a 9-3-1 ATS run, the Bears are 1-8 ATS in their last nine non-conference games. I'm grabbing the points with Yale, my DogPound release on Thursday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Clippers on Wednesday. Houston rocked Memphis by 49-points two nights ago, but we're not quite ready to trust the Rockets in step-up matchups. First of all, the Grizzlies had an injury report that read like a Leo Tolstoy novel. Tonight, the Rockets will host an angry Clippers' squad that went from 1-point down at the end of three quarters in San Antonio last night, to a 21-point loss. The bench was to blame as the Spurs' reserves slammed the Clipper reserves over the first four minutes of the fourth quarter, and the rest was history. We had the Under in that one and cashed. Tonight, we'll grab the points with a refocused Clipper squad that's won 69.6% of their games SU, following a SU loss. They're also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 off a SU loss. Houston leading scorer James Harden is in a mini-slump, making just 5 of 22 shots, including 2 of 10 treys in his last two games, combined. You can beat a banged-up Memphis team with those kind of numbers from your star, but not the Clippers in my opinion. Houston enters on a 0-5 ATS slide at home against teams with a winning road record. I'm taking the points with the Clippers, my Road Warrior on Wednesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Tulsa on Wednesday. One particular Las Vegas sports book group was set to open this game near PK'm. But they understood they'd have so much action coming in on Michigan, they had to adjust that number, according to the VP of Business Development at CGT. That in itself, tells how much public perception has meant to this number. Tulsa had won three straight and five of six, including wins over SMU, Cincinnati, and Temple, before losing two of their next three to Memphis. The more we look at it, the more it seems as though Memphis was just a bad matchup for the Golden Hurricane. By losing that second meeting, Tulsa has had an extra day of rest and we feel they'll be ready to potentially pull the upset here. Michigan misses Caris LeVert. Yes, they saw plenty of action without their top player, but the fact is, even though they're used to his absence, they're a different team when he's not on the floor. The Wolverines are also too reliant on the 3-pointer, with 44.5% of their shots coming from behind the arc. By doing so, they don't get to the FT line, averaging just 16 FTA per game. If the trey goes sour, they don't have the FT bailout. Tulsa averages 23 FTA per game, play a better brand of defense in FG percentage allowed than Michigan, and in a matchup of guard-heavy teams, are more diverse on the offensive end. Tulsa enters on a 5-0 ATS run against teams playing better than .600 basketball, while U-M is 1-4 ATS in their last five games. I'm grabbing the points with Tulsa, my Slam Dunk. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with IPFW on Tuesday night. A difference in styles and motivation in this opening night matchup in the NIT. The Mastadons rank 26th in scoring, averaging over 80 ppg and are one of the best deep perimeter shooting teams in the nation, ranked 6th in 3-point accuracy, making over 40% of their attempts. SDSU would be happy with a "first team to 60 wins," type of contest. If the Aztecs get their wish, it'll be tough to cover the double digit spread. As far as the motivation factor, IPFW came up short in the Summit League tournament after posting a 12-4 league mark. But they've had plenty of time to get over it, and the Mastadons are reportedly thrilled with the NIT bid. Meanwhile, the Aztecs are used to Big Dance invites with Sweet-16 potential under Steve Fisher, not settling for smaller tourneys. But those are the cards that have been dealt after falling to Fresno State in the MWC title tilt in Las Vegas. The team and its fans are not too excited for this NIT contest. Reports are saying SDSU's sellout streak at Viejas Arena will end at 72, as they're expecting the facility to be half full. Motivation in the NIT is not unlike motivation in pre-New Year's Day bowl games. Some teams are excited, while others go through the motions, used to bigger and better tourneys. IPFW puts four players in double figures in scoring per night and a 5th is averaging more than 8 ppg. Three players have piled up between 120 & 81 assists on the season. The Aztecs own strong defensive numbers, but they struggle badly with FG accuracy and 3-point shooting on the offensive end. They've also come up short in the steals department and IPFW is 8-1 ATS this season against teams that average no more than six steals per game. SDSU enters on a 4-9-1 ATS slide at home and they're 0-6 ATS over the last two seasons against teams that average at least eight made 3-pointers per contest (IPFW averages 10.4 made treys per game). Finally, the Summit League entry enters on a 36-14-2 ATS run on the road. I'm grabbing the points with IPFW, my Tuesday NIT Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Cavaliers on Monday. Cleveland is scoring more points with Channing Frye getting more comfortable in his new digs. He's made 17 of 36 3-pointers since the trade that brought him to Cleveland. I had mentioned on radio at the time of the trade that this would prove to be a shrewd move, giving the Cavs a "big" who forces an opponents' "big" out to the perimeter, and truly unclogging things in the middle. Tonight, Frye and his teammates will take on a short-handed Utah squad, playing without Gordon Hayward, in all likelihood. The Jazz are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games, overall, and 0-7 ATS against teams playing better than .600 basketball. Meanwhile, the Cavs are 8-2 ATS against the Western Conference. Cleveland's offensive surge is the real deal and we expect it to continue tonight. I'm laying the points with the Cavs, my KO release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Bucks on Sunday. Brooklyn is back home, but in a tough spot, having just completed a 9-game, 17-day road trip, the longest road trip in the NBA so far this season. They did have Saturday off, but it's a team that lost five of their last six and ranks 30th in the league in FG percentage defense and 24th defending the trey. Milwaukee beat Indiana last night as they continue to look more cohesive on the offensive end with Giannis Antetokounmpo in charge. All five starters score at least 15 points last night and Greg Monroe had a solid double-double, back in the lineup. The Bucks enter this one on a 6-1 ATS run on the road against teams with a losing home record, and they're on a 10-1-1 ATS run on the road against the Nets. They have won and covered three straight meetings with Brooklyn and I'm betting they'll win and cover another tonight. I'm laying the short points with the Milwaukee Bucks, my Knockout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Kentucky on Sunday.  The teams met once in the regular season, ending in a 79-77 Texas A&M win in OT.  We had the Aggies in that one and got a little fortunate at the end.  Kentucky led 76-75 with 10-seconds left in OT and had just gained possession of the basketball along with a foul on A&M to stop the clock.  But a controversial technical foul was called on Kentucky's Isaac Humphries, who was in celebration mode.  The official who made the call mistook his happiness with taunting, and A&M sank the FTs.  I had A&M that day, and realized right away I got help from the guys with the whistles.  The Wildcats were a 2-point road favorite in the matchup, and here they are, laying just 3 1/2 on a neutral floor.  A&M gets it done on the defensive end, but they didn't exactly shine against Kentucky. The Wildcats made 27 of 54 shots in the OT loss, including 10 of 20 from behind the arc.  And over the last four games, all wins & covers, the 'Cats have averaged 90 ppg on 52.5% shooting, including 50.7% from area code 3.  John Calipari's troops own a +33 rebound margin during the run and have committed just 34 turnovers, while piling up 73 assists to just 36 for the opposition.  A&M will attempt to throw a wrench into the Kentucky offense, but I don't believe the Aggies will be able to keep up at the other end.  The Wildcats have covered four straight games, enter on a 20-8-2 ATS run in SEC play and they're 10-4 ATS against teams playing better than .600 basketball.  I'm laying the points with Kentucky, my SEC Beatdown.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Purdue on Saturday. Nice comeback win by Michigan last night, a game that was reminiscent of the Wolverines win over Purdue in Ann Arbor on February 13. Last night, Michigan trailed Indiana 66-61 with 1:50 to go in the second half, but outscored the Hoosiers 11-3 to close the game and pull-off the 72-69 win. Last month, Michigan trailed Purdue 56-50 with three minutes to go in regulation. The Boilermakers had numerous chances in the paint, but never scored another point, falling 61-56, getting outscored 11-0 over the final 3:17. The Boilermakers whipped U-M by 17 points in the first meeting and their strengths were on display and seemed to be in control for most of the 80 minutes of action in the two games, combined. Michigan takes 44.5% of all their shots from behind the 3-point line. But Purdue defends the deep perimeter well, holding teams to 31.4% shooting from behind the arc. And due to the amount of treys, Michigan only attempts about 16 free throws per game. They're weak on the glass, while Purdue has dominated inside, and also produced nealy 18 assists per game. The Boilermakers enter on a 4-0-1 ATS run in their last five games, overall, and they're on a 6-1-1 ATS run against Michigan. I'm laying the points with Purdue, my Big-10 Beatdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Tulsa on Friday night. We ended up in the black playing against Memphis multiple times in conference action this season, but we did lose one when we backed Tulsa on February 28. The Golden Hurricanes lost 92-82 as short chalk, but the final score didn't give a true indication of how close the game actually was. Tulsa led at one point of the second half and were within four with less than three minutes to go in the game. But the Hurricanes went ice cold, scoring just four points over the final 2:43 of the contest. Memphis won just five of their final 14 games and went through some serious in-game dry spells on the offensive end. The Tigers rank 292nd in FG percentage and 275th in 3-point accuracy. Memphis played just one neutral site game this season, but in road action, they allowed 80 ppg on 45% shooting, and saw their opponents average a whopping 30 FTA per game. Tulsa was the much better team away from home this season, and while they're on a 5-1 ATS run against teams with a winning record, the Tigers enter on an 8-22 ATS slide against teams playing better than .600 basketball. Tulsa was a 2-point favorite at Memphis in the Tigers home finale just two weeks ago. I have no problem laying the number today on a neutral floor. I'm laying the points with Tulsa, my Knockout on Friday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with North Carolina on Friday. The Irish are off the big come from behind win over Duke yesterday. Notre Dame trailed 64-48 midway through the second half and looked like they were on their way to their third big, double digit loss in four games. But Duke went cold, the Irish caught fire and closed regulation on a 22-6 run to send the contest to OT, where Mike Brey's team won 84-79. I'm sure the big comeback reminded UNC fans of what happened to their Tar Heels in South Bend in early February. UNC held a nine-point lead at the half, led by double digits in the second half, and held as big as a 15-point lead before the Irish made the run, winning 80-76. It marked the third straight win by Notre Dame over North Carolina, including last season's ACC postseason tourney championship victory. One situation UNC has pointed to in the last two meetings is the huge Irish advantage at the FT line. Notre Dame attempted 70 FTA in the last two meetings, combined, to just 28 FTA for the Heels. I expect a "market correction" in this one with UNC averaging 21 FTA per game away from home this season and Notre Dame averaging less than 16 FTA per game outside of South Bend. The Heels are the much better rebounding team over the last five games, where they also averaged nearly 17 assists per contest. While the Irish have taken care of the basketball this season, I do expect the Heels to do their best to smother the Notre Dame backcourt in this one after they committed 18 turnovers against Duke. The Irish have lost three of their last five games, including an 18 point loss to Miami and a 21 point loss to Florida State. I'm laying the points with North Carolina, my Revenge Wipeout on Friday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing Mississippi State on Thursday night. It took a while, but Ben Howland has MSU on the same page and they have won four of their last six outright, covering five of those games. We have backed Mississippi State a couple of times down the stretch, cashing both times. MSU has scored 72 ppg on 46% shooting, while allowing just 68 ppg over their last five outings, a nice improvement over what was going on early in the conference season. Georgia has really been struggling with their accuracy, making just 40% of their FGA over their last five contests, while allowing those teams to make nearly 10 treys per game on 40% 3-point shooting. UGA has averaged more FTA per game over their last five than MSU, but the team from Athens also watched the opposition take more than 23 FTA on average. And while UGA has forced just 9.4 turnovers per game in their last five, MSU has forced a strong, 0.79 assists-turnovers ratio. We should also note that UGA forced fewer than 11 tpg on the season and Miss State is on a 10-1 ATS run against teams that force no more than 12 tpg. I expect Miss State's surge to continue at least for one more game. I'm backing Mississippi State, my SEC Shocker. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with North Carolina on Thursday. Those who follow me already know I'm not the biggest Panther fan in 2016. We have gone against Pitt in each of their last two games and we cashed both tickets. Obviously, yesterday's win was a little close for comfort, but the bottom line is that Pitt is not as strong as their 14-1 SU start to the season would indicate. The Panthers are just 7-9 SU in their last 16 games, even with yesterday's win. They're also on a 0-8 ATS slide this March and last, not finishing either season well. It wasn't easy plucking our money down on Syracuse, because Pitt had matched up well with them during the season. But the Panthers did not match up well with North Carolina in their regular season meeting. UNC smothered Pitt's ball handlers and forced 19 turnovers in an 85-64 win. Meanwhile, the Heels finished with 26 assists and just 11 turnovers. Roy Williams' 2016 version is all about getting the ball to the what is arguably the nation's best front-line. I expect more of the same here. And once Pitt collapses inside, the Heels will find open shots on the perimeter. Besides the 0-8 ATS slide mentioned earlier, we also note that Pitt is on a 0-7 ATS slide against elite rebounding teams, those that average at least seven more rpg than they allow (UNC +12.3). I'm laying the points with North Carolina, my Early Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Marquette on Wednesday night. Chris Mullin's first year on the job as coach of his alma mater got off to a decent start. SJU began 7-3 SU, with a win over Syracuse, included. The nightmare began following the win over the Orange on December 13, and the Red Storm are just 1-20 SU since then. The Johnnies have been simply ugly on the defensive end, while "simply ugly" would be a nice way to describe their play on the offensive end. Marquette, ranked 45th in FG percentage, and with virtually five players averaging in double figures in scoring, should have little trouble finding their shot and making it a 3-game season sweep. Twin Towers Henry Ellenson & Luke Fischer will lead an attack against a defenseless Red Storm team that has been non-competitive too often this season. The only difference I expect in this one compared to the first two meetings is for Marquette to win by a larger margin. They led St. John's by 18 points in the second half in the second meeting before letting up, and led by double digits with 20 seconds to go in the first meeting before winning by six. No let-up in the conference tourney. I'm laying the points with Marquette, my Mismatch on Wednesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.