All Sports Archive | |||||||
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
03-06-17 | Heat v. Cavs -8 | 106-98 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with the Cavaliers on Monday night. Quick turnaround for the Cavs after losing in blowout fashion in Miami last time out. No Kyrie Irving or LeBron James in that one, but both are expected to play tonight. The game wasn't without controversy with a few "jabs" by Miami, while winning comfortably, leading to some trash-talk from J.R. Smith on the Cavalier bench. It doesn't really matter, but we believe James and company will be motivated to take it to his former team. Miami has heated up after a poor start to the season, but then again, they have won just two of their last five SU on the road, allowing 109 points or more three times. Meanwhile, the Cavs are on a 5-0 SU run and winning by nearly 13 ppg following a SU loss. They're on a 10-1 ATS run at home and the Cavs have covered five straight at home against the Heat. And even thought the teams are looking a little different now, the home win streak includes a 114-84 win in December as a 12 1/2 point favorite. Finally, Cleveland is on a 14-3 ATS run at home in revenge of a double digit road loss over the last three seasons, winning by an average score of 111-94. I'm laying the points with the Cavaliers, my Monday Slam Dunk. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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03-05-17 | Minnesota v. Wisconsin -6.5 | Top | 49-66 | Win | 100 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Wisconsin on Sunday, my Knockout Blowout. The Gophers have been red-hot of late, while the Badgers have slipped a bit, but we like the Badgers to bounce back here. Wiscy enters on a 20-2 SU run at home, including 14-2 this season. They're nasty on the defensive end on their home floor, holding teams to 56 ppg on 38% shooting, while allowing just 20 made FGs per game. The Badgers average 22 FTA per game, while their guests average just 12 per game and Wisconsin has forced opponents into a 0.65 assists/turnovers ratio. They also pull down 11 more rebounds per game than they allow. Minnesota is upside down on the glass on the road where they're making just 41.6% of their FGA. The Gophers have covered just three of their last 21 as a road dog of less than seven points, while the Badgers enter on 5-1 ATS run at home when laying less than seven points and they're 4-0 ATS at home against teams with a winning road record. I'm laying the points with Wisconsin, my KO on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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03-04-17 | Raptors v. Bucks +2 | 94-101 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the Bucks, my NBA Top Shocker. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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03-04-17 | Portland State v. North Dakota -7.5 | 73-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with North Dakota on Saturday afternoon. When these teams met in late December, North Dakota was just a one-point dog, but got crushed 99-62. Talk about a wake-up call. Since the loss, ND is on a 13-3 SU (11-5 ATS) run. The Fighting Hawks committed 26 turnovers in the loss and made just 4 of 18 3-pointers. The Hawks never got off the bus. But they enter this one making nearly half their shots at home, including 39% of their 3-pointers, averaging 81 ppg. ND forces 14.4 tpg, while allowing just 10.4 apg. Quinton Hooker & Geno Crandall are strong dishers and six players average more than 8 ppg. ND will face a Portland squad that nailed 39 of 69 shots, including 13 of 28 treys in the 37-point win. That's not likely to happen again, obviously, and they allow 88 ppg on the road on 50.4% shooting and 40% from behind the arc. PSU is also minus-5 per game in rebound margin away from home. ND enters on a 10-4 ATS run, including 6-1 ATS at home. I'm laying the points with North Dakota, my Revenge Wipeout GOM. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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03-04-17 | Baylor v. Texas +6 | Top | 75-64 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with Texas on Saturday afternoon. The season certainly hasn't gone as planned for the Longhorns, but we like their situation in their home finale. Texas is catching Baylor off a big home win over West Virginia, but on a 4-5 SU slide. They enter this one on a 3-9 ATS slide as chalk. Baylor may not have Manu Lecomte (ankle) for this one. Lecomte is the team's second leading scorer and best assists man. However, this is a play whether Lecomte plays or not. As a team, Baylor allows hosts a 1.52 assists-turnovers ratio. Meanwhile, Texas holds guests to 67 ppg on 41% shooting, including 29% from behind the arc. Back to assists...Texas has the best two dishers on the floor with Andrew Jones & Kerwin Roach combining for 215 assists on the season. We expect an upset in this one and we're taking the points with Texas, our Big-12 DogPound GOM. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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03-04-17 | California v. Colorado -2 | 46-54 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with Colorado, my Afternoon Annihilator on Saturday. We got what we hoped for when the Buffaloes won on Thursday night. The Buffs believe a Big Dance berth is possible with a 20 win campaign. After the win on Thursday and if they win this one, they'll need two more in the conference tourney to hit 20. CU heads into this one on a 15-6 ATS run as a favorite of less than seven points and they're on a 6-1 ATS run at home against Cal. Colorado shoots well at home where they average 26 FTA per game, while Cal averages just 15.9 FTA per road game. The Buffaloes are also in revenge of a 77-66 loss. CU was in a tough spot, off back-to-back outright underdog wins, including a win over Oregon. Cal doesn't shoot well on the road and have just one win in their last five games and that came against lowly Oregon State. Can't shoot and own a poor 0.72 assists/turnovers ratio means this team is ripe for the picking. I'm laying the points with Colorado, my Afternoon Annihilator. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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03-02-17 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. South Alabama -2.5 | 62-57 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 5 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with South Alabama, my Slam Dunk on Thursday night. The Jags have dropped three straight with the two most recent losses coming on the road. But they're back home where they're 9-6 SU on the season and certainly better on their home floor than UALR on the road. UALR has not played well on the defensive end away from home where they allow teams to nail 46.5% of their FGA and 40% of their 3-pointers. UALR also gets to the FT line just 15 times per game on the road, while the Jags average 24 FTA per home game. South Alabama forces 16 turnovers per game, part of a strong 0.79 assists/turnover ratio, while UALR is upside down in a-to-t ratio on the road. The Jags actually have six players averaging over 8 ppg and own the best disher on the floor tonight. USA is 11-5 ATS as a home favorite of less than seven points and have covered eight of their last nine off a loss by more than 20 points. Meanwhile, UALR is on a 0-4 ATS slide. We're laying the points with South Alabama, our Slam Dunk. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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03-02-17 | Warriors -7 v. Bulls | 87-94 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 43 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with the Warriors on Thursday night. We know Golden State is at their best when they have something to focus their attention on. In this case, the Warriors have a couple. First of all, they need to learn to play without Kevin Durant, who may miss the rest of the regular season. Secondly, they're off a SU loss last time out and have won 21 of their last 23 in this spot. GSW won't take long to shake the loss of Durant and one of the reasons is Klay Thompson, who'll get more looks with KD sidelined. Another reason is that GSW has averaged 119 ppg following their previous nine losses this season. This is just the third time they have been installed as a favorite of less than 10 points off a loss, winning & covering each of the first two by scores of 121-111 & 113-103. GSW whipped the Bulls in early February and we expect another win & cover tonight in a focused effort. I'm laying the points with the Warriors, my KO release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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03-01-17 | Utah State -4 v. UNLV | Top | 59-66 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 29 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Utah State on Wednesday night. We've gone against UNLV several times this season with success. We knew this team was in for a horrible campaign, playing against them all the way back in game-1 when we cashed with South Alabama, and most recently, this past Saturday when they were clocked by Nevada. UNLV is showing no signs of life and has not only dropped nine in a row outright, but they're on a 0-7-1 ATS slide in their last eight games. The Rebels are 5-22-1 ATS in their last 28 MWC tilts. UNLV has scored 58 or fewer points in three of their last six games, while allowing an average of 86.4 ppg to their last five opponents. Marvin Menzies' troops can't shoot and can't defend and have been losing their man on the defensive end several times per game for weeks. Utah State won the first meeting 79-63 in January, making 52% of their FGA and 13 of 21 3-pointers. They out-rebounded UNLV, 38-28. USU makes over 46% of their shots and has played well on the defensive end. They're a ridiculous 40-19-1 ATS as chalk and 25-4 ATS in their last 29 against teams playing sub-.400 basketball. I'm laying the points with Utah State, my Wednesday Wipeout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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03-01-17 | Kansas State v. TCU -2 | 75-74 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 26 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with TCU, my KO on Wednesday night. The Horned Frogs will aim for the season sweep after beating K-State 86-80 in OT a few weeks ago. TCU nailed 10 of 17 3-pointers in the meeting and I expect another big night on the deep perimeter. After all, Kansas State ranks 330th, allowing opponents to make nearly 39% of their treys. The Cats are even worse on the road where they allow their hosts to make 41.1% of their 3-point attempts. We note that TCU makes over 47% of their FGA at home and own a huge advantage on the glass compared to K-State's board work outside of Manhattan. TCU also owns the better dishers with Alex Robinson & Jaylen Fisher combining for 279 assists so far this season. Both teams have struggled of late, but TCU's five-game losing streak came against West Virginia, Kansas, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, and Baylor. All five teams have won at least 20 games and are a combined 114 & 35 SU. Meanwhile, Kansas State has been losing to everyone, dropping eight of 10, including a 30 point loss to Oklahoma. The Cats have covered just 11 of their last 35 as a road dog of less than seven points. TCU is on a 13-6 ATS run at home against teams with a losing road record. I'll back Jamie Dixon's team to get back in the win column in their home finale. I'm laying the points with TCU, my KO on Wednesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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03-01-17 | Pistons v. Pelicans -1.5 | 86-109 | Win | 100 | 17 h 32 m | Show | |
I'm backing the New Orleans Pelicans on Wednesday night. 0-3 is the record that stares the Pelicans in the face since the trade for DeMarcus Cousins. One can hardly blame "Boogie," who's averaged 23 ppg & 13 rpg since landing in the Big Easy. He's expected to serve a suspension tonight, but we expect that fact to focus the efforts of everyone who's available. Scheduling hasn't been favorable since his arrival, but we expect a better outcome for New Orleans tonight. They'll host a Pistons' team off a big come from behind OT win over Portland last night. Detroit is already on a 0-5 ATS slide in the second of back-to-back nights and we expect the trend to continue. The Pelicans have cashed five of the last six home games with Detroit and we'll back them here. I'm laying the short points with the Pelicans, who expect to be without Cousins, my NBA Slam Dunk on Wednesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-28-17 | Maryland -5 v. Rutgers | Top | 79-59 | Win | 100 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Maryland on Tuesday, my KO release. The Terps have struggled a bit of late, dropping three in a row, but we believe they're getting "just what the doctor ordered," on Tuesday. Maryland owns a strong 7-2 SU mark on the road this season, where they make 47% of their FGA, including 40.3% from behind the arc. They have held their hosts to 40.8% shooting. And yes this one has meaning as Maryland attempts to draw closer to wrapping up a double-bye in the Big-10 tourney. Rutgers has lost five straight games, are 2-14 SU in conference play this season and they've covered just 19 of their last 60 Big-10 games. The Knights average just 66 ppg and rank 319th in FG percentage and 341st in 3-point accuracy. Corey Sanders is their best disher with 97 assists, but he's committed 81 turnovers. Meanwhile, Melo Trimble and Anthony Cowan have combined for 213 assists this season. The Knights don't have an answer for Trimble and I expect Maryland to gain the season sweep. The Terps enter on a 7-1 ATS run on the road against teams playing better than .600 home basketball, and they're on a 10-3-2 ATS run off a double digit home loss. Bounce back time for the Terps in my opinion. I'm laying the points with Maryland, my KO on Tuesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-27-17 | VMI v. Western Carolina -3 | Top | 68-81 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Western Carolina, my KO on Monday. Both teams may be playing out the string, but at least one of the two teams still plays some defense on their home floor. WCU is not only on a 10-4 ATS run at home, but they're on a 4-0 ATS run when laying points. They own the better defensive numbers both in the home/road situation and overall. In fact, VMI allows 81 ppg on the road on 49.6% shooting, including 38.6% from behind the arc. And their offensive numbers, horrible for the season, are even worse of late, shooting under 39% from the field and just 29.4% from the 3-point line over their last five games. The Keydets also averaging a minus-6.6 rebound margin per game on the road. VMI escaped with a 79-78 win in January's meeting, but WCU has covered four of five meetings since 2015 and they're on a 5-0 ATS run against teams playing less than .400 basketball. I'm laying the points with Western Carolina, my Monday KO. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-26-17 | La Salle v. Massachusetts | 71-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
I'm backing UMass on Sunday, my KO release. The season certainly hasn't gone the way the Minutemen had hoped, but we like their chances in this one. UMass does play defense at home, allowing just 67.3 ppg on 38.9% shooting, including 29.6% from behind the arc. They also force 16 turnovers per game on their home floor, while averaging over 18 assists per contest. La Salle plays very little defense on the road, allowing 80.5 ppg on 47.5% shooting. This is a situation where we believe UMass can take advantage of their intensity on the stop end and get back in the win column. The Minutemen enter on a 6-2 ATS run in the series and La Salle has covered just 10 of their last 30 as a dog, including losing four in a row ATS when getting points. They're a slight dog at the time of this post. I'm backing UMass, my Knockout on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-25-17 | Nevada -7.5 v. UNLV | 94-58 | Win | 100 | 16 h 22 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with Nevada on Saturday. We've gone against the UNLV Runnin' Rebels a few times this season with success, including in their most recent game when Air Force clocked the boys from Vegas by 23 points as a 4-point favorite. I know this is a rivalry game, but the current Rebel roster probably couldn't care less since only a couple have been in Vegas for more than one season. Marvin Menzies is struggling badly in his first season as coach as his players are leaving their assignments on the defensive end and simply making bad and maybe even disinterested decisions. Speaking of disinterested, that's the community of Las Vegas when it comes to their once proud Rebel program. I won't be surprised if more Nevada fans are in attendance for this one. The Pack are primed for a 12-seed in the Big Dance and losing here would be devastating. This is all about the Wolf Pack staying focused. Nevada, under Eric Musselman & former UNLV coach Dave Rice own a huge coaching advantage over their counterparts. And the Rebels are shooting under 40% at home and are even worse on the defensive end. The Pack have covered four straight games, while UNLV is on a 5-21-1 ATS slide in the conference and they're on a 0-6 ATS slide at home. I'm laying the points with Nevada as they aim for the season sweep. The Wolf Pack are my Weekend Wipeout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-25-17 | Bowling Green +2 v. Miami (OH) | 70-54 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with Bowling Green on Saturday afternoon. When you can't shoot straight, don't defend well, and can't rebound, you aren't going to win a lot of games. That's the situation with Miami-Ohio. The Red Hawks are also horrible in the assists/turnover department where they have a 0.8 ratio. They have one disher in Michael Weathers who has 136 assists on the season. The problem is that the Miami guard has turned it over 129 times. Only one of their other 12 players have a positive ratio and that particular player has just 16 assists and 8 turnovers. Miami is a mess. Bowling Green isn't going anywhere in the MAC, but they take care of the "rock," and own the best disher on the floor in Ismail Ali. They also have Demajeo Wiggins who pulls down more than 8 rpg. The Falcons are on a 7-3 ATS run as underdogs of less than seven points, while the Red Hawks are on an 11-24-3 ATS slide as home chalk. BG won the first meeting 83-72 despite Miami making more than 56% of their FGA. We believe BG will gain the season sweep here. I'm grabbing the points with Bowling Green, my Top Shocker. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-25-17 | Florida State -1 v. Clemson | Top | 76-74 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
I'm backing the Florida State Seminoles, my Morning Massacre. The Seminoles have had problems at times on the road, but they have also beaten Miami-Florida and Virginia in road action. The 'Noles have championship talent, I'm just not sure Leonard Hamilton can direct them to the Final Four. But they can have their way with Clemson for the second time this season. FSU nails 49% of their FGA and holds opponents to 40.8% shooting. Clemson allows teams to make over 45% of their FGA and 36% of their 3-point attempts. They're bad in the assists/turnovers department and turned it over 22 times in the 48-point loss earlier this season. Clemson had no matchup for Dwayne Bacon and Xavier Rathan-Mayes and that hasn't changed. In fact, the Tigers are basically Jaron Blossomgame and little else. Clemson enters on a 2-8-1 ATS slide against teams playing better than .600 basketball. Meanwhile, the Seminoles are on a 4-1 ATS run at Clemson. And finally, we note that under coach Brad Brownell, the Tigers have covered just 7 of 23 in revenge if the opponent scored at least 75 points in the earlier meeting. I'm backing Florida State, my Morning Massacre. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-24-17 | Princeton v. Columbia +7.5 | 64-45 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 38 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with Columbia on Friday night. The pressure grows for Princeton as they look to continue their run to an undefeated Ivy League campaign. The thing is, if you're backing the Tigers, you are paying a premium at this point because of it. Columbia gave Princeton a scare two weekend ago when the Lions covered in a 61-59 loss as a double digit underdog. And whether you break it down by recent games or by home/road dichotomy, the Lions & Tigers are rather even in this matchup. In fact, Columbia holds teams to 41% shooting on their home floor, while Princeton has allowed hosts to make over 45% of their FGA. They're also better at home defending the trey than Princeton is on the road. The Tigers are upside down on the glass away from home and they get to the FT line only a dozen times per road game. That number has dropped to less than 10 FTA per game in their last five contests, overall. Columbia enters on a 21-6 ATS run as a dog in a line range that includes tonight's number. And Columbia coach Jim Engles is 8-0 ATS against teams that hold their opponents to 64 ppg or less. The Lions took Princeton to the wire on the road two weeks ago. I expect them to at least hang the number at home tonight. I'm taking the points with Columbia on Friday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-23-17 | Memphis +13 v. Cincinnati | Top | 74-87 | Push | 0 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with Memphis, my DogPound release on Thursday night. There are some similarities between these teams, including the fact both pay attention to detail on the defensive end, both are blessed with a pair of strong rebounders, and both teams own strong dishers. And while we do have Cincy power rated better than Memphis, the point-spread is a tad inflated according to our numbers. We also have a double-digit favorite that's covered just 13 of their last 36 when facing an opponent that holds their opponents to 42% or less shooting. Memphis fits the defensive bill, along with playing solid deep perimeter defense. We also note the Bearcats are just 5-13 ATS as home chalk of 12 1/2 to 15 points under Coach Cronin. Memphis is in need of a win if they wish to entertain thoughts of an at-large Big Dance bid. They lost their last two games, but they're on a 7-0 ATS run off two straight conference losses. The Tigers normally regroup in this spot and we like them to do so here, allowing them to hang the number. I'm grabbing the points with Memphis, my DogPound on Thursday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-22-17 | UNLV v. Air Force -3.5 | 58-81 | Win | 100 | 18 h 20 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with Air Force, my Slam Dunk. Neither team has been able to find the win column too often this season, but UNLV did beat Air Force in OT in Las Vegas last month. The Rebels won 87-85, but we note the Falcons made just 15 of 27 FTs in the two-point loss. AFA averages 75 ppg at home and four players average in double figures in scoring. Meanwhile, the struggling Rebels allow 82 ppg on the road on 49% shooting, including 44% 3-pointers...downright dreadful. They're also upside down in rebounding away from Sin City. UNLV enters on a 5-20-1 ATS slide in conference play, including 3-10 ATS this season. They're on a 2-11-1 ATS slide as a road dog and have dropped five ATS with one push in their last six games, overall. I'm betting the Falcons gain a measure of revenge. I'm laying the points with Air Force, my Slam Dunk on Wednesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-22-17 | Manhattan v. Rider -6 | Top | 82-93 | Win | 100 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Rider on Wednesday night. We released Manhattan as a free play on these pages on Sunday and the Jaspers won big. But that was their home finale and they were hosting a team that was the perfect matchup for Manhattan to shine. But this is a different situation tonight. In fact, it's the Jaspers who should prove to be "just what the doctor ordered," for their opponent. Rider is a beast on the offensive end, especially at home where they average 86 ppg on 50.6% shooting, including 46.5% 3-pointers. Five players average at least 11 ppg; Kahlil Thomas & Norville Carey average 9.1 rpg and 6.9 rpg; and their top two dishers have combined for 227 assists on the season. The Broncs average 19 apg on their home floor. Manhattan has just two reliable scorers and no one outside of Zane Waterman is strong on the glass. The Jaspers best assists man has 97 assists, but 88 turnovers and their second best disher has more turnovers (55) than assists (50). Manhattan has a poor 0.71 assists/turnovers ratio on the road. I'm laying the points with Rider, my MAAC GOY. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-21-17 | East Carolina +2 v. Tulane | Top | 76-73 | Win | 100 | 21 h 34 m | Show |
I'm backing East Carolina, my Shocker on Tuesday night. The Pirates may own an ugly road record, but they haven't played that badly. In fact, despite being 3-6 SU in their last nine games, overall, they have been a money-maker, covering seven times. One of the outright wins came in a 74-65 victory over tonight's opponent. ECU led by as many as 15 points in the second half, clobbered the Green Wave on the glass (+9), and we expect more of the same tonight. The biggest difference between these two teams is that ECU plays defense and Tulane does not. The Pirates allow just 63.6 ppg on 38.4% shooting, including 31.2% 3-pointers. The defensive shooting percentages rank 7th & 30th in the nation. Tulane checks-in with the nation's 335th ranked defense in FG percentage allowed and 333rd defending the trey. They're also upside down in rebounding. Tulane also enters on an 8-25-3 ATS slide at home, including 1-6-2 ATS in lined home games this season. Meanwhile, ECU is on a 4-0 ATS run as a dog of less than seven points and they're on a 6-1-1 ATS run on the road against teams with a losing home record. I expect the Pirates to gain the season sweep. I'm grabbing the points with East Carolina, my Tuesday night Shocker. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-21-17 | Davidson v. Richmond | 76-84 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show | |
I'm backing Richmond, my Slam Dunk on Tuesday night. Richmond won the first meeting this season despite making just 4 of 9 FTs, while Davidson made 18 of 23. The home/road dichotomy is much more to the liking of the Spiders when they're at home where they average 23 FTA per game to just 16 FTA per game for Davidson on the road. The Wildcats are too reliant on the 3-pointer with 47% of their shots on the road coming from behind the arc. This is another advantage for Richmond, who holds their guests to 30.5% 3-point shooting. Davidson doesn't play a lot of defense outside of Belk Arena, allowing hosts to make 45% of their FGA and over 41% of their treys. Richmond's ShawnDre' Jones & T.J. Cline combined for 40 points in the first meeting with Cline also grabbing 10 rebounds and dishing out 8 assists. Meanwhile, Jack Gibbs & Peyton Aldridge each scored 21 points for the Wildcats, which is basically their season average. The problem is that Davidson has no one else to consistently help out on the offensive end. I believe the Spiders will offer too much for the 'Cats. I'm backing Richmond, my Slam Dunk on Tuesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-19-17 | Valparaiso -8.5 v. Detroit | Top | 83-63 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Valparaiso on Sunday. The Crusaders could use a bounce back win after collapsing against Oakland on Friday night. Valpo trailed just 41-38 with 16 minutes to go, then got outscored 12-0 over the next 2 minutes and that was that. They beat Detroit 81-74 in last month's meeting, topping 80 points despite committing 20 turnovers. Doubt that happens again. But that shows just how poor Detroit is on the defensive end. The Titans allow 85 ppg on the season and 88 ppg over their last eight games. They rank 350th in FG percentage allowed (50.1%) and 322nd against the trey (38.3%). And while Valpo is +9 in rebounds per game, Detroit is upside down on the glass. Detroit enters on a 4-0 ATS run as road chalk of 7 to 12 1/2 points and they're on a 10-3 ATS run off a SU loss. Finally, the Crusaders are on an 8-1-1 ATS run at Detroit. I'm laying the points with Valparaiso, my Daytime Dominator. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-19-17 | George Washington -2 v. Duquesne | 77-70 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with George Washington, my KO on Sunday. The Colonials won the first meeting, 65-63 last month and while it was close, the Dukes had no answer for Tyler Cavanaugh, who produced a double double. Cavanaugh averages 17 ppg and pulls down 8 rpg to lead GW and we see no reason to think Duquesne can find the matchup answer this time either. Cavanaugh also has some help to get the Colonials over the hump in this one. The Dukes have won just one of their last nine games and are on a 2-7-1 ATS slide in their last 10. They're also just 2-8 ATS at home against teams with a losing record. We look for GW to make it eight covers in the last 10 meetings with a win and cover on Sunday. I'm laying the points with George Washington, my KO. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-18-17 | Hawaii +4 v. Cal Poly | Top | 82-61 | Win | 100 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with Hawaii on Saturday night. The Warriors shoot for the season sweep and their 5th straight win and cover over Cal Poly and we believe they'll get it done. Hawaii won the February 9 meeting, 74-65, despite making just 12 of 20 FTA, while the Mustangs made 21 of 28. Cal Poly had no defensive answer for Noah Allen and we expect more of the same tonight. And we note that CP is on a 2-10 ATS slide in revenge of a road loss. Hawaii enjoyed facing the nation's 333rd ranked team in defensive FG percentage and 329th ranked 3-point defense. They should have little trouble again tonight. Neither team is a world beater, obviously, but UH is the better defensive team. They're not only on a 4-0 SU/ATS run in the series, but they're also on a 4-0 ATS run as a road dog of less than seven points. The Mustangs won last time out, beating CSUN, however, they're on a 0-6 ATS slide off a conference win. We'll grab the points with Hawaii, our Big West Dog of the Month. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-18-17 | North Dakota +5.5 v. Weber State | 77-68 | Win | 100 | 17 h 54 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with North Dakota on Saturday night, my Top Shocker. Weber State is on a 14-2 SU run after a tough start to the season, but they continue to be overvalued behind the counter. The Wildcats haven't been winning by wide margins and have covered just one of their last nine games, including a current 0-5 ATS slide. Each of their last four games have been decided by six points or less. And while they have the offense, they do leave a bit to be desired on the defensive end and on the glass, where they're slightly upside down. North Dakota won last month's meeting, despite playing poorly in the first half. They outscored the Wildcats 48-37 over the final 20 minutes and finished with a dominant performance on the glass, out-rebounding Weber State 33-20. The Fighting Hawks shot lights-out and I believe they'll take advantage of the somewhat permissive Weber defense again. The 'Cats have no one to match-up with North Dakota guards Quentin Hooker & Geno Crandall, who're also going to be the two best dishers on the floor tonight. North Dakota has covered four straight games and they're on a 6-1-1 ATS run when getting points. They're also on a 4-0 ATS run in the series. Meanwhile, besides their current 0-5 ATS slide, Weber State has covered just seven of their last 27 as chalk. I'm taking the points with North Dakota, my Top Shocker. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-18-17 | Florida State -5 v. Pittsburgh | 66-80 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with Florida State, my KO release on Saturday. The Seminoles have looked like a 1-seed at home, but they have struggled on the road. They lost their most recent road game at South Bend, losing 84-72 to Notre Dame. But the 'Noles have had an entire week off to regroup and focus-in on taking care of business outside of Tallahassee. We saw Florida State play well two road games ago when they rocked Miami-Florida, 75-57 as a 3-point underdog. In fact, we had Florida State in that one and we and they know they have what it takes to play top level basketball on the road. As some players stated this week, it's time to get it together when they venture outside of Donald L. Tucker Center. They offer too much offense for Pitt to hang with in this one, in my opinion. The Panthers have won just two of their last 11 games and have dropped recent home games to Miami-Fla., by 26 points and to Louisville by 55 points. Pitt is just 19-42-2 ATS in their last 63 home games. I'm laying the points with Florida State, my KO release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-17-17 | Illinois-Chicago +1.5 v. Detroit | 74-69 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show | |
I'm backing UIC, my Friday Knockout. The Flames are a decent shooting team that averages over 77 ppg on the season and puts five players in double figures in ppg. Detroit, meanwhile, plays no defense, allowing 86 ppg on 50.6% shooting, including 38% from the 3-point line. When these teams met last month, UIC not only won 78-64, but shot 58%, including 53% from behind the arc. They also crushed Detroit on the glass (+11) and won easily despite committing 23 turnovers. We expect the amount of turnovers to drop in this one and that spells more trouble for the Titans. UIC enters on a 5-0 ATS run as a road dog of less than seven points. They're 9-1 ATS against teams playing less than .400 basketball, and are 13-3-1 ATS off a SU loss. I'm backing UIC, my Friday Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-17-17 | Cornell +2.5 v. Dartmouth | Top | 69-65 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with Cornell on Friday night. When the Big Red whipped Dartmouth, 75-62 on January 28, Evan Boudreaux scored 23 points and grabbed 14 rebounds for the Big Green. No one else reached double figures in scoring for Dartmouth and only one other player finished with more than three rebounds. But that's Dartmouth in a nutshell; it's Boudreaux and little else. Cornell may not have a sizzling record either, but at least they have three decent rebounders and three players averaging between 12 & 17 ppg. In fact, in that meeting, Cornell put four players in double figures in scoring and four players finished with five or more rebounds. I expect more of the same in this one. Dartmouth is horrible on offense and allow the opposition to make over 46% of their FGA. They're 6-18-2 ATS as chalk, including 3-12 ATS when laying less than seven points. Meanwhile, Cornell is 14-5 ATS against teams playing less than .400 basketball at home. I'm grabbing the points with Cornell, my Brain Chain Beatdown on Friday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-16-17 | UC-Davis v. Long Beach State -3.5 | 69-78 | Win | 100 | 18 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with Long Beach State, my KO on Thursday. Once again, 49ers' HC Dan Monson put his troops through the ringer in the non-conference portion of the season and "The Beach" took their lumps against some of the best teams in college basketball. But as we near the postseason Big West tourney, Long Beach looks to be toughened-up, having won five of their last seven, covering four of their last six. They already own a 72-63 home win over UC-Irvine, our top rated team in the conference. Long Beach owns the scorers, the better dishers, and has two rebounders to off-set Chima Moneke's work on the glass. Moneke rarely gets any help in the rebounding department. The 49ers have made 47% of their shots over the last five games, including 41.5% from behind the arc. They're strong on the defensive end at home where they've forced a negative assists/turnovers ratio and UC-Davis is upside down on the offensive end in this department on the road. Speaking of defense, the 49ers held UC-Davis to a combined 95 points in last year's sweep. I expect another strong effort tonight and I'm laying the points with Long Beach State, my Thursday Night Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-16-17 | Drexel +1 v. Delaware | Top | 67-68 | Push | 0 | 16 h 5 m | Show |
I'm backing the Drexel Dragons on Thursday, my Shocker release. This one reminds me a bit of our play last night on Samford. Like the Bulldogs, Drexel is better than their record indicates. Yes, it's been a disappointing season, but they have covered three of their last four games and are the better team in this matchup. Drexel is the much better offensive team and while Delaware's ppg allowed looks decent at first glance, the fact is, they're nothing special in FG percentage allowed or 3-point defense. At the same time they're one of the worst offensive teams in college basketball in most important categories. Drexel has five players averaging 9.5 ppg or more, two strong rebounders in Austin Williams and Rodney Williams, and Kurk Lee is the best disher on the floor. And Delaware owns poor assists/turnovers numbers. I doubt they'll be able to take advantage of any Drexel defensive issues. The Dragons are on a 6-1 ATS run off a loss, while Delaware has covered just 8 of 26 against teams that shoot at least 21 treys per game. The Blue Hens averaged just 64 ppg in those 26 games, while allowing 77 ppg. Drexel won and covered the last two meetings by scores of 76-60 & 74-64 and I expect a third straight series win tonight. I'm backing the undervalued Drexel Dragons, my CAA Shocker of the Month on Thursday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-15-17 | Hawks +2.5 v. Clippers | Top | 84-99 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday night, my Knockout release. These two teams wrap-up the pre-all star portion of the season tonight and ATL looks for a little revenge. The Clippers pulled-off an upset in Atlanta last month without Blake Griffin or Chris Paul. ATL obviously wasn't engaged and lost. But the Clippers are in a tough spot, back home following a five game, nine day road trip. In fact, LAC have played 10 of their last 11 on the road. The Hawks have been terrific in this spot, currently on a 7-1 SU & ATS run as a road underdog. They'll throw a hot Dennis Schroder at the Clips along with Tim Hardaway, Jr., who has really taken to being in the starting lineup. We believe ATL will end the night with a SU win, but we're taking the points for insurance as they attempt to extend the road team run to 5-0 ATS in this series. I'm grabbing the points with the Hawks, my KO on Wednesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-15-17 | Samford +11 v. East Tennessee State | 77-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with Samford on Wednesday, my Top Shocker. These teams went into OT in their last meeting before ETSU was able to pull out the victory. Samford shot just 41% from the field, well below their season average, yet had their chances to win the game. The Bulldogs lost last time out to Furman, but they were obviously gassed after playing a 4-OT game against Wofford just 48 hours prior. But Samford has had a few days off since their last game and we expect a close, hard-fought contest tonight. Not only does Samford make 46% of their shots, but they're 20th in the nation from behind the arc, while ETSU struggles in deep perimeter defense. Samford puts four players in double digits in scoring per game. Christen Cunningham and Josh Starkey are excellent dishers, combining for 282 assists on the season, and Wyatt Walker pulls down almost 10 rpg. The Bulldogs are better than their record and their record isn't bad at 15-11 SU. Samford enters on a 9-1 ATS run as a road underdog and they're on an 18-6 ATS run as a dog of 7 to 12 1/2 points. Meanwhile, ETSU has covered just four of their last 13 as home chalk in the same line range. I'm grabbing the points with Samford as the road team looks to make it 5-0 ATS in this series. Samford is my Top Shocker on Wednesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-14-17 | Bowling Green +8.5 v. Western Michigan | Top | 79-89 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with Bowling Green, my DogPound release on Tuesday night. These teams are rather even and Western Michigan's home floor certainly isn't worth four buckets. Not that BGU is great on the defensive end, but we're talking about a decent-sized favorite in WMU that allows 78 ppg and ranks 345th in FG percentage allowed (48.8%) and 327th in 3-point defense (38.5%). The Broncos have no one to match Bowling Green's Demajeo Wiggins on the glass and the best disher on the floor by far is another Falcons' player, Ismail Ali. The underdog in this series is on a 7-3 ATS run and BGU has won and covered three of their last four games. I'm grabbing the points with Bowling Green, my MAC DogPound on Tuesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-13-17 | Magic +8 v. Heat | 116-107 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the Orlando Magic on Monday night. Tough spot for Miami tonight, returning home from a four-game road trip and off a loss that snapped their 13-game winning streak. They're also facing a team that beat them in their December meeting, 136-130 in OT. Orlando knows they can beat this team. And while Miami may be motivated to exact revenge, we just don't believe they should be laying this many points. Orlando may be struggling but we expect them to hang the number tonight. I'm grabbing the points with the Magic, my DogPound release on Monday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-12-17 | Nevada v. San Diego State -3.5 | Top | 56-70 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with San Diego State on Sunday. The home team has covered six straight in this series and the Aztecs couldn't be catching Nevada at a better time. While SDSU isn't playing the type of ball they've grown used to under Steve Fisher, they're still a "tough out" on their home floor. The situation is strong. Nevada played their "game of the year" last time out when they hosted their chief rival, UNLV. The Wolf Pack were jacked to crush the Rebels from start to finish and they did. But while the Pack may be a big fish in a small pond this season, they are beatable. Over their last four games Nevada lost by 17 points at Utah State and by five points at home to Fresno State. They'll want to get up and down the floor, but SDSU can throw a wrench into the system with their strong play on the defensive end, allowing just 38% shooting at home where they also average nine steals per game. SDSU came within 3 points of Nevada in Reno last month despite making just 4 FTs on 6 attempts. I believe they'll catch the Pack in the rematch. I'm laying the points with San Diego State, my Slam Dunk. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-11-17 | Celtics v. Jazz -5 | 112-104 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with the Utah Jazz on Saturday night. We played on Boston and against the Jazz two nights ago and cashed both plays. We felt the Jazz were a tad overvalued against Denver, but not here. Utah is not only off the loss, but will look to avenge last month's 115-104 loss in Boston. The Jazz didn't play badly on offense, but watched the Celtics nail 55% of their FGA and 55% of their 3-pointers. A note from that game, Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder combined to make 10 of 15 shots, including 7 of 10 3-pointers. But Bradley is out and Crowder is questionable. We have no problem going against the C's even if Crowder suits-up. Boston enters on a 0-4 ATS slide on one day rest and 0-5 ATS off a SU win, while the home team is on a 3-0-1 ATS run in this series. I'm laying the points with the Jazz, my NBA Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-11-17 | Gonzaga -4 v. St. Mary's | Top | 74-64 | Win | 100 | 19 h 50 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Gonzaga, my WCC Main Event GOY. We saw what the Bulldogs did to SMC in the first meeting and while that was a homer for the Zags, it was dominant. Then again, "Dominant" is the key word in this series. Gonzaga has won 10 of the last 12 meetings, outright. They have covered 10 of the last 11, including five straight in Moraga. And just for good measure, the nation's top-ranked team is on a 24-5-1 ATS run, overall. I've been asked several times if I think Mark Few's team is overrated? My answer? I have Gonzaga power rated higher than any team in college basketball. Meanwhile, I have 20 teams rated higher than SMC. No, that doesn't mean a 21st ranked team can't beat a #1 team, but it does mean that the Gaels would have to play above their heads, while the Zags must come down a couple levels. I don't believe it's going to happen. I also believe if Gonzaga gets up by a couple buckets by intermission or early in the second half, the pressure of "having to win" will overwhelm SMC. We saw the Gaels nearly succumb to the pressure against lowly Portland on Thursday. SMC is 1-4 ATS in their last five as a dog of less than seven points. I'm laying the points with Gonzaga, my WCC Main Event. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-11-17 | East Carolina -2 v. South Florida | 57-64 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 53 m | Show | |
I'm laying the short points with East Carolina, my Saturday Knockout. We have a road favorite who hasn't won a true road game this season. This tells us where the true value lies and it's with the Pirates. ECU has covered six in a row on the road against teams with a losing home record and South Florida fits the home bill. The Bulls struggle in a lot of areas, including deep perimeter defense and on the glass. Geno Thorpe has no help when it comes to creating shots for others. USF is poor on the glass and should have no answer for the ECU combo of Andre Washington & Kendell Barkley, who both average more than 7 rpg. ECU is nasty stingy on the defensive end, ranked 7th in the nation, holding teams to 38.3% shooting. They won this season's first meeting 60-49 in December. ECU held the Bulls to less than 30% shooting and 3 of 15 from behind the arc, while forcing 18 turnovers. Besides their 6-0 ATS run already mentioned, ECU is 5-1 ATS in their last six overall, while USF is on a 7-23 ATS slide at home against teams with a losing record and 1-7 ATS as a home dog of less than seven points. I'm backing East Carolina, my Knockout on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-11-17 | Texas +12 v. Oklahoma State | 71-84 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with Texas on Saturday, our DogPound Crusher. Shaka Smart's troops are playing a better brand of basketball than they're given credit for of late. Their value has been at its best on the road where they have covered six of seven. In fact, the Longhorns are on a 9-1, 90% ATS run as a road dog or less than 13 points and more than 7. Texas won the first matchup in Austin, 82-79, and the Cowboys porous play on the defensive end proved no match for Tevin Mack. Mack led four players in double digits in scoring with 27 points and Jarrett Allen owned the glass. I expect another strong outing for Texas, facing a Cowboys' team that's 313th in the nation in FG percentage allowed (46.8%). And we note OSU is in off of games against Baylor, West Virginia, and Oklahoma. Look for the Longhorns to hang the number. I'm grabbing the points with Texas, my DogPound release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-10-17 | Harvard -3.5 v. Brown | Top | 87-74 | Win | 100 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Harvard on Friday night. The Crimson are off a tough, close loss to Ivy League leading Princeton, but they've had six days to regroup and I believe that's all they'll need to right the ship. The Crimson can catch and surpass Yale this weekend for second place and we like their chances tonight. Harvard allows just 40.1% shooting, which ranks 31st in the nation. They also have the best shot creator in this matchup when Siyani Chambers takes the floor. Brown has been too permissive this season, allowing more than 77 ppg on 49.4% shooting and they're weak on the glass. The Crimson roll into this one on an 8-1-1 ATS run in league play and they're on a 4-0-1 ATS run on the road against teams with a winning home record. Brown fits the bill, but while they're 8-2 SU at home this season, they have dropped their last two and they're on a 2-6 SU slide in their last eight games, overall. I'm laying the points with Harvard on Friday, my Beatdown release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-09-17 | Celtics +2 v. Blazers | 120-111 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
I'm adding the Boston Celtics plus the points, a late release slam on Thursday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-09-17 | Jazz v. Mavs +2.5 | 105-112 | Win | 100 | 17 h 11 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday night. Utah is feeling pretty good about themselves. Last night's blowout win at New Orleans was their fourth straight win and the Jazz are 33-19 on the season. But now they're a tad overvalued, in our opinion. Utah is 1-5-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back nights and they're on a 0-5 ATS slide against teams playing less than .400 basketball on the season. Dallas still doesn't have Deron Williams, but they're growing used to that fact. In the meantime, Harrison Barnes is having a season. Barnes combined with Dirk Nowitzki and Wesley Matthews, to score 74 points in their most recent game, a 114-113 loss to Portland. Dallas covered, which means they're now on a 7-0 ATS run at home. They're also on a 4-0 ATS run against teams playing better than .600 basketball. We believe they'll end Utah's winning streak tonight and we're taking the short points with the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-09-17 | North Texas +7.5 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 70-64 | Win | 100 | 16 h 56 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with North Texas on Thursday night. The Eagles have suffered through a very rough slide, having not won a game since December. They have played closer than one would imagine though, covering five of their last nine games. Tonight, they look to extend their head-to-head run with Florida Atlantic to 6-0 SU and 8-0 ATS. In fact, North Texas has won nine of the last 11 meetings, overall. Despite the Eagles W/L slide, these teams are quite even, showing similar results on the offensive end with North Texas playing the better brand of defense. I'd also rather have Eagles' J-Mychal Reese running the point than anyone on the Owls' roster. Look for North Texas to hang the number at the very least. I'm taking the points with North Texas, my Shocker on Thursday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-08-17 | Nuggets v. Hawks -4 | Top | 106-117 | Win | 100 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Atlanta Hawks, my Wednesday Wipeout. Ugly home loss for the Hawks last time out, but we expect a bounce back here. Atlanta is 18-5 ATS off a double digit loss at home and they've also covered nine of the last 12 home meetings with the Nuggets. Speaking of Denver, they slammed Dallas last time out, but the Nuggets have not been able to figure things out away from home. Denver is 1-6 ATS on the road against teams with a winning home record and they've allowed over 110 ppg on the road this season. In fact, the Nuggets have allowed an average of 119 ppg in their last nine road games on 50% shooting, including 39% from behind the arc. Spread those numbers over the course of the season and Denver would easily own the worst defense in the NBA. Look for the Hawks to bounce back with the win and cover. I'm laying the points with Atlanta, my Wednesday Wipeout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-07-17 | LSU v. Kentucky -25 | 85-92 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 9 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with Kentucky on Tuesday, my Beatdown release. John Calipari says he believes his team may have bottomed-out in their 88-66 loss to Florida over the weekend. He also said, maybe the 'Cats haven't. That to me is a challenge to get things going in the right direction. He also told his players they can continue to play their worst or play their best. I believe they'll play their best tonight against a team that's simply in free-fall. LSU has dropped nine straight games (3-6 ATS) by an average margin of 18 ppg. They allowed 85 points or more in six of the nine losses and four teams topped 90 points. Kentucky should make it five teams. The Tigers are allowing 46.2% shooting, including 37.5% from behind the arc. I believe LSU will be "just what the doctor ordered," for the ticked-off and embarrassed Wildcats. LSU has covered just 8 of their last 28 conference games, while Kentucky is on a 12-4 ATS run as home chalk of 13 or more and on a 4-0 ATS run at home against teams with a losing record. I'm laying the points with Kentucky, my Beatdown release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-07-17 | Maryland -2.5 v. Penn State | 64-70 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 11 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with Maryland as the Terps look to bounce back from a weekend loss to Purdue. The matchup is all Maryland thanks to their strong defensive play where they hold opponents to 40.1% shooting (32nd in the nation) and 32.9% behind the arc. Penn State has lost their shot. The Nittany Lions are making just 41.5% of their FGA, which ranks 306th in the nation. They're bad on the glass and most of the roster owns weak assists/turnover ratios. Maryland not only allows just 66 ppg, but they have five players averaging between 17.2 ppg and 8 ppg on the offensive end and Melo Trimble & Anthony Cowan have combined for 166 assists on the season. The Terps enter on a 6-0 SU/ATS run on the road and they're on a 10-1-1 ATS run, overall. Meanwhile, the road team in this series is on a perfect 4-0 ATS run. I'm laying the points with Maryland, my Slam Dunk on Tuesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-06-17 | Mavs +2.5 v. Nuggets | 87-110 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 38 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the Dallas Mavericks on Monday. Despite getting long in the tooth, when Dirk Nowitzki is on the floor Dallas is a much better team. After missing several games earlier this season, he's played in all 15 games in 2017 and the Mavs are 10-5 SU & 11-4 ATS. Dallas was just 10-25 SU before the current run. Meanwhile, Denver isn't at their best with Danilo Gallinari sidelined and that remains the case tonight. I suspect the Nuggets will have a hard time "keeping up," thanks to their horrible play on the defensive end where they allow 111.8 ppg, and rank 30th in FG percentage allowed and 27th in 3-point percentage allowed. Besides their current 11-4 ATS overall run, the Mavs are on a 7-1 ATS run on the road against teams with a winning home record. I'm grabbing the points with the Mavericks, my Road Warrior on Monday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-06-17 | Appalachian State v. Arkansas-Little Rock -5.5 | Top | 62-69 | Win | 100 | 17 h 37 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Arkansas-Little Rock on Monday night, my SunBelt KO. UALR has been on the losing end of late, dropping four straight games, but they're getting "just what the doctor ordered," when they host Appalachian State. The Mountaineers have lost six straight and nine of their last 10. They allowed nearly 82 ppg in the six-game losing streak and three of those opponents shot 49% or better. One of their main problems right now is turnovers where they're minus-20 in their last four outings. Basically, ASU has one double digit scorer in Ronshad Shabazz, with no other offensive threats. UALR has five players averaging more than 9 ppg and beat ASU on the road, 76-68 in January. The win made if five victories SU & ATS in the last six meetings for the Trojans. Last time here, UALR beat ASU 81-55 as a 15 1/2 point favorite. They've won three straight home meetings by margins of 26, 18, & 15 points. We also note UALR is off a home loss and they're on a perfect 8-0 ATS run following a conference loss on their home floor. I like the spot they're in tonight. I'm laying the points with Arkansas-Little Rock on Monday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-06-17 | Jazz v. Hawks -1 | 120-95 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 10 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Atlanta Hawks on Monday night. The Jazz have certainly had their troubles away from home and we expect more of the same tonight. Utah is 1-10 ATS as a road dog this season, including a current 0-7 ATS road slide, overall. Not having Rodney Hood, who's still out with a knee injury doesn't help the Jazz' cause. Atlanta holds opponents to 44% shooting at home and rank 5th in the league holding teams to 44.7%, overall. They host a Jazz offense making just 44.2% of their FGA over their last five outings. The Hawks have a little extra motivation also, looking to atone for a 95-68 loss in the season's first meeting when they made just 31% of their shots and scored just 25 points in the second and third quarters combined. I believe ATL will gain a measure of revenge. I'm backing the Hawks on Monday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-05-17 | South Florida +15.5 v. Temple | 74-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with South Florida on Sunday, our Shocker. Normal analysis will return with Monday's card. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-04-17 | Kentucky +1.5 v. Florida | 66-88 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday night, my KO play. The Florida Gators have strung together three straight wins following losses to Vanderbilt & South Carolina. But while they walloped those three squads, we note they have a combined record of 22-41 SU. In fact, Mizzou, Oklahoma, & LSU are on losing streaks of 13, 4, and 8 games, respectively. The level of competition rises a bit in this one. Kentucky will enjoy the fact Florida will likely try to run with them. But the Wildcats are better at both ends of the floor. John Calipari expects to have De'Aaron Fox back on the floor tonight, giving the 'Cats four players averaging 13 to 22 ppg. Fox and Isaiah Briscoe have combined for 211 assists on the season and we expect the 'Cats to control the boards. Calipari-coached teams are 12-3 ATS after allowing two straight opponents to top 75 points as Kentucky has done. They have won five straight in the series by an average of more than 13 ppg, covering four in a row. I'm backing the Kentucky Wildcats, my KO on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-04-17 | Minnesota +1 v. Illinois | Top | 68-59 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
I'm backing Minnesota on Saturday afternoon. Both teams are struggling, but we feel Illinois will provide "just what the doctor ordered," for the Gophers to snap their five game losing streak. Minnesota's last four losses came by a grand total of just 17 points with two of the losses coming by a basket each. Richard Pitino's squad once stood 15-2 on the season. Illinois has been a disappointment since Big-10 season began. Six of their last nine losses came by double digits, they struggle on the defensive end, and at the other end of the floor, only one player has at least a 2:1 assists-turnovers ratio. Minnesota has been outstanding on the defensive end where they rank 19th (39.5%) & 23rd (30.9%) in FG percentage and 3-point shooting allowed, respectively. And we know Illinois is just 3-11 ATS after game 15 on the season against teams that hold opponents to 42% or less. Six players average 9 ppg or more for Pitino and they have three strong dishers, led by Nate Mason with 120 assists on the season, while averaging less than 2 turnovers per contest. Finally, with John Groce as coach, we note that after 15 games of the season, the Illini are just 8-20 ATS at home against teams with a winning record. I'm backing Minnesota as they look to gain a measure of revenge for an 85-52 loss last March. The Gophers are my Revenge Game of the Month. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-04-17 | Louisville v. Boston College +15 | 90-67 | Loss | -117 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with Boston College, my Daytime DogPound on Saturday. This isn't an easy spot for Louisville to stay focused for an entire 40 minutes. They're big chalk in this one after blowout wins over NC State & Pitt, but they have a date and revenge spot with Virginia in just 48 hours. Louisville remains shorthanded in the backcourt and will face a Boston College squad that's playing better than their record would indicate. While the Eagles have lost six straight, they have covered four in a row. Their last four losses all came by single digits with the last three coming by a grand total of just 12 points. There's certainly nothing wrong with the backcourt tandem of Jerome Robinson and Ky Bowman and we believe they'll keep this game closer than the spread, throughout. Besides the 4-0 ATS run mentioned above, the Eagles are on a 9-1 ATS run against teams playing better than .600 basketball. We'll grab the points with Boston College, our DogPound release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-03-17 | Suns +4.5 v. Kings | 105-103 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the Phoenix Suns on Friday night, my Slam Dunk release. This one has plenty to do with value and situational handicapping. Sacto is off an extended road trip that included playing eight games in 12 days. Tonight marks the first time the Kings have played at home since January 18. More importantly, the Kings are playing no defense. Sacramento has allowed triple-digits in 11 straight games, an average of 111 ppg and their defensive efficiency rating has dropped to 27th in the NBA. Phoenix has been nothing to brag about on the defensive end either, but they actually rank 11th in the NBA in points scored per contest and we expect an advantage against a Kings' squad in a shaky spot. The Suns are off a 10 point loss to the Clippers, but are 12-5 ATS off a double digit loss. In fact, the Suns are 21-8-1 ATS off a spread loss in general, while the Kings have covered just two of their last nine at home. One final situational ingredient: Sacto has Golden State tomorrow night. The Suns are in a great spot and we expect them to take advantage. I'm grabbing the points with Phoenix, my Slam Dunk on Friday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-02-17 | Colorado v. Stanford -2 | Top | 81-74 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Stanford, my Knockout release. Colorado is off a big home win over Oregon, but they have struggled on the road this season. The Buffs are allowing their "hosts" to score 78 ppg on 46% shooting. At the same time, they're taking 22.5 3-pointers per road game, connecting on just 30% of their attempts. CU even struggles at the stripe, making just 62% of their FTs on the road. We also know that the Buffaloes don't have any players with really strong assists-turnover ratios this season. Stanford has been outstanding on defense of late, allowing less than 61 ppg over their last five outings. Reid Travis has been a beast averaging over 16 ppg and nearly 9 rpg. And the assist combo of Robert Cartwright & Christian Sanders is the best on the floor tonight. The Cardinal enter on a 6-2 ATS run at home against teams with a losing record. Meanwhile, the Buffs are 5-16-1 ATS as a road dog of less than seven points and they're 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12, overall. I'm laying the points with Stanford, my KO release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-01-17 | UCLA -14.5 v. Washington State | 95-79 | Win | 100 | 16 h 22 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with the UCLA Bruins on Wednesday night. The Bruins simply looked gassed in their last two outings and at both ends of the floor. They turned the ball over way too often against USC, but now face the Cougars, who average fewer steals than any other team in the Pac-12. UCLA will also come into this after having a week to rest-up and re-energize. They also have motivation after losing each of the last three times in Pullman. Wazzu is not good from the deep perimeter on the offensive end, play little defense at the other end, and they're upside down in the rebounding department, averaging fewer rebounds per game than they allow. The Cougars have covered just two of their last 10 as a home dog and they're on a 0-6 ATS slide at home after the 15 game mark of the season against teams that outscore their opponents by at least 8 ppg. UCLA won the most recent meeting by 33 points in Los Angeles. Tonight, I expect a spread covering win on the road. I'm laying the points with UCLA, my Wednesday Wipeout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-01-17 | Florida State +2 v. Miami (Fla) | Top | 75-57 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with Florida State on Wednesday. After getting knocked around by Wake Forest and Duke, Miami is now riding a 2-game win streak that included a 77-62 win over North Carolina. But the 'Canes have been burning bankrolls as chalk, cashing just 3 of the last 17, including a 1-8 ATS mark as a home favorite. Despite Florida State's recent struggles, we still have the Seminoles power rated solidly ahead of Miami and a team that can make a deep big dance run. They started showing signs of life in the second half against Syracuse and watching that game (without action) gave me a "buy" sign for this one. After trailing by 18 at the break, the 'Noles finally woke up from their game-and-a-half slumber, getting within two of the Orange with 90 seconds to go in the game, but eventually unable to get over the hump. Besides the poor ATS spots the 'Canes are in, we have a Florida State squad on a 6-2 ATS run as a road dog of less than seven points. I'm grabbing the points with Florida State, my Road Warrior on Wednesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-31-17 | Tennessee v. Auburn +1 | 87-77 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 3 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Auburn Tigers on Tuesday night, my Shocker release. Tennessee has surprised of late, no doubt about it, winning back-to-back games as home underdogs. But after beating Kentucky and Kansas State, we expect a somewhat young Vols' roster to struggle on the conference road as young teams tend to do off big home wins. In fact, Tennessee has covered just three of their last 15 off an outright win as a dog, losing by an average score of 75-67. The Vols don't shoot or defend the deep perimeter too well and they average a minus-3 on the glass in six road games this season. Auburn gets up and down the floor at home where they average over 86 ppg on 46% shooting, while holding visitors to 29% from behind the arc. Finally, the home team has covered 16 of the last 21 in this series and the Tigers are in serious revenge from a horrible loss to Tennessee last March. Young teams tend to struggle on the road off big wins and we feel the Vols will follow suit. I'm backing Auburn, my Shocker on Tuesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-31-17 | West Virginia v. Iowa State +3 | Top | 85-72 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 0 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with the Iowa State Cyclones on Tuesday, my DogPound release. If you wish to hang with the Mountaineers you must have a backcourt that can handle the Bob Huggins-coached pressure. We had Oklahoma over WVU a couple weeks ago because Lon Kruger has done a great job at teaching his kids to handle "press-Virginia." Iowa State, meanwhile, has the guards. Monte Morris (16.4 ppg & 5.75 apg) has turned the ball over just 23 times in 20 games. His backcourt mate, Nazareth Mitrou-Long (15.3 ppg & 4.8 rpg) has committed just 34 turnovers in 20 games. This is the type of backcourt that can take WVU out of its game. ISU has four players averaging 12 ppg or more, while holding opponents to 41% shooting at the other end as a team. They're 8-2 SU at home this season, losing tight games to Kansas & Cincinnati. WVU is off five straight "big" games and they have hot Okla State on deck. We expect a determined ISU squad following a loss at Vandy when the Cyclones blew a double-digit lead. The boys from Ames enter on a 12-5 ATS run against teams with a winning record, while WVU is on a 1-4 ATS slide. ISU is battle-tested to be sure, having played Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, Cincy, and Miami-Florida. I believe they'll leave the floor with a check in the win column tonight. I'm taking the points with Iowa State, my DogPound release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-29-17 | Thunder +7 v. Cavs | 91-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the Thunder on Sunday, my Slam Dunk. LeBron James is right about one thing, his team's roster is top heavy. The Cavs miss contributors like Matthew Delladova and Timofey Mozgov, who moved on in the off-season and certainly miss the services of J.R. Smith, who's still out with a thumb injury. The Cavs continue to be overpriced due to public perception, losing six in a row ATS off a SU win and 11 of their last 13, overall. OKC lost Enes Kanter to a silly injury, breaking his arm while punching a chair, but we expect Steven Adams to pick up the slack. Adams finished with a +27 in OKC's win over Dallas last time out. OKC has won and covered three straight, along with an 8-3 ATS run in their last 11. Russell Westbrook is dominating and he's getting help from Victor Oladipo. We'll back them here against a frustrated Cavaliers' team. I'm taking the points with the Thunder, my Sunday Slam Dunk. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-29-17 | Michigan v. Michigan State -2.5 | Top | 62-70 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Michigan State, my Sunday Knockout. The Spartans were in control for 18 of 20 minutes of the first half in their loss to Purdue a few nights ago. They suffered a dry spell to wrap up the first half and an 8-point lead with 2 1/2 minutes to go turned into a halftime tie. They suffered another dry spell in the second half and that was all it took for Purdue to grab the road win. But I expect MSU to bounce back here in a must win situation. The Spartans have been limited thanks to injuries suffered to the roster, but I'm not sold on Michigan, despite their 90-60 win over Indiana. The Wolverines are 0-5 on the road and rank 320th in FG percentage allowed and 351st in 3-point defense. U-M is just 3-10 ATS against teams with a winning record, while MSU is on a 7-2 ATS run against teams playing better than .600 basketball, and 4-0 ATS as home chalk. Tom Izzo is getting "just what the doctor ordered," and I'm laying the points with Michigan State, my Big-10 Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-28-17 | UC-Irvine -1.5 v. UC-Davis | Top | 65-74 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 18 m | Show |
I'm backing UC-Irvine on Saturday night. The Anteaters came out flat as can be in their most recent game, losing outright as a 13-point favorite to Cal Poly. The loss ended an 8-game winning streak, where they won six games by at least 20 points. It was also the first time they were installed as a double-digit favorite as the line finally caught up to them. But the line is back to being reasonable off the loss and we'll back them here. UCI is a decent shooting team and a beast on the glass. They're also ranked 54th in points allowed per game and the Anteaters hold their opponents to the nation's 10th stingiest, 38.4% shooting. UC Davis is horrible at the FT line and weak on the glass and UCI has two defenders to throw at and slow down Chima Moneke's effectiveness. We note that UCI is 5-0 ATS off a double digit home loss and 7-0 ATS as a favorite of less than seven points. My power ratings say this line is too short and we'll back the Anteaters. I'm backing UC Irvine, my Big West GOM. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-28-17 | Towson v. Northeastern -2.5 | 62-69 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with Northeastern on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-28-17 | Kansas State +1.5 v. Tennessee | 58-70 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Kansas State Wildcats on Saturday afternoon. Tennessee surprised Kentucky backers last time out with an 82-80 outright win as a 10 point underdog. Kentucky was flat and lethargic and simply didn't show up, shooting poorly, while the Vols made an unusual number of shots, over 47%, including 50% from behind the arc. That from a team that's made just 33.6% of their 3-pointers this season (237th in the nation). Today, the Vols face a K-State team that allows just 41% shooting and 64.7 ppg. K-State's also one of the top shooting teams in college basketball and have six players averaging 9 ppg or more. Bruce Weber has three capable dishers as this team utilizes a true team effort. Tennessee has covered just 6 of their last 27 as a home favorite or PK, and they're on a 0-7 ATS slide off an outright SEC win when getting points, allowing 82 ppg and losing by 12 ppg in the seven outings. I'm backing Kansas State, my Knockout on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-28-17 | Providence +8.5 v. Marquette | 79-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with Providence, my DogPound release on Saturday. Marquette has been red-hot, beating Creighton 102-94, then coming from 15 points down at the half to beat Villanova, 74-72. Marquette out-scored the Wildcats, 50-33 over the final 20 minutes of action. The Golden Eagles nailed 60% of their FGA against Creighton, including 12 of 24 3-pointers, and made exactly 50% of their FGA against Villanova, including 47% of their treys. I expect a letdown here. We also have a situation where the line has inched-up on Marquette, thanks to their two high profile wins. Ed Cooley's Friars are rebuilding this season, but are a tad undervalued here, besides catching Marquette at the right time. They also have four players averaging double-digit per game in scoring, a pair of strong rebounders, and an excellent disher in Kyron Cartwright. Providence enters on a 13-5 ATS run as a road dog, while Marquette is 1-6-1 ATS as a favorite of 7 to 12 1/2 points. I'm grabbing the points with Providence, my DogPound release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-26-17 | Nebraska +9 v. Northwestern | 61-73 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 17 m | Show | |
I'm grabbing the points with Nebraska on Thursday, my Slam Dunk. The Huskers lost to Northwestern on January 8, ending an impressive 3-0 start in conference play and beginning a current four-game losing streak. The Huskers looked strong out of the gate, beating Indiana and Maryland on the road and Iowa at home. But we note Nebraska hasn't been blown out. All four losses came by single digits and their last two conference losses came by one point each. Tim Miles' crew is on a 5-0 ATS run as a road dog. The Wildcats are in a tough spot, laying big points off an emotional win over Ohio State, marking the first time Northwestern beat the Buckeyes in Columbus in 40 years. The Wildcats trailed Nebraska at the half in the first meeting and trailed midway through the second half before Nebraska went ice cold. We also note Northwestern made 51% of their FGA in the win, including 11 of 24 from behind the arc. I expect Nebraska to hang the number in Evanston. I'm taking the points with the Huskers, my Slam Dunk. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-26-17 | Xavier +5.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 78-86 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with Xavier on Thursday, my DogPound release. While Cincy owns the big-time shiny record, the fact is, they're piling up wins in a mediocre conference. Flip-flop these two teams, sending Xavier to the AAC and I believe the Musketeers would easily be perched atop the conference. Xavier is too lengthy for the Bearcats up top, in my opinion, and they have owned this series of late winning three in a row and seven of the last nine. The Muskies are also on a 4-1 ATS run against their crosstown rivals, while the Bearcats have covered just six of their last 26 against Big East teams and two of their last 11 as home chalk of less than seven points. I'm grabbing the points with Xavier, my DogPound release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-25-17 | Texas Tech +9.5 v. Baylor | 61-65 | Win | 100 | 18 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm grabbing the points with Texas Tech on Wednesday, my DogPound release. Baylor is 18-1 SU and was recently ranked #1 in the AP poll. I happen to disagree with the Associated Press often. In this case, I have 13 teams power ranked higher than the Baylor Bears. And once again, I believe they're overvalued when they host Texas Tech, which is why they have covered just two of their last six Big-12 games. Their last five wins have come by an average of less than 6 ppg and I expect Texas Tech to hang tough in this one. At 49.9% shooting, Tech is the nation's 10th best shooting team. And like Baylor, they hold teams to the mid-60's in scoring. The Red Raiders are accurate at the charity stripe and do a great job of denying rebounds on the defensive end. Keenan Evans and Devon Thomas both set the table well, finding open looks for others, while keeping turnovers at a minimum (combined 2.74 tpg). Baylor is 1-6 ATS at home against teams with a losing road record and they're on a 0-5 ATS slide as a favorite of 7 to 12 1/2 points. I'm grabbing the points with Texas Tech on Wednesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-25-17 | Creighton -1.5 v. Georgetown | 51-71 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 38 m | Show | |
I'm laying the short points with Creighton on Wednesday, my CBB Shocker. The Jays are no longer a Final Four contender after losing national MVP candidate Maurice Watson, Jr., but they are better than the results we saw on Saturday in a 102-94 loss to Marquette. Then again, with the way Marquette shot, few teams would have beaten the Golden Eagles. Marquette made 60% of their FGA, including 50% of their 3-pointers. Georgetown isn't a bad shooting team, but it's hard to imagine they'll come anywhere close to what Marquette did on Saturday. Offensively, Creighton was just fine, scoring 94 points and led by Marcus Foster, who finished with 30 points on 13 of 24 shooting. Khyri Thomas, Isaiah Zierden, and Davion Mintz will have to pick up the point-guard slack, but the Jays still have five players who can score in double figures when needed, three of which average between 12 & 19 ppg. The Hoyas enter just 1-6 SU & ATS in Big East play and lost their most recent conference home game by 18 points to Providence. They're also on a 0-5 ATS slide as a home dog. The Jays are on an 18-4 ATS run off a spread loss and they're on a 7-0 ATS run as road chalk. I'm laying the short points with Creighton on Wednesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-24-17 | Kentucky -9.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 80-82 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Kentucky, my KO on Tuesday's slate. It's not often when we have laid a lot of points this season, but we have a team that's laying a little less than it should be in our betting opinion. Kentucky may be without the services of De'Aaron Fox, who is listed as questionable (ankle), however in this particular game, I believe the Wildcat talent will circle the wagons and pick up the slack. Kentucky has three other players averaging between 21.7 ppg & 13 ppg and Malik Monk, Isaiah Briscoe, and Dominique Hawkins should be able to pick up the slack when it comes to creating shots for others. The 'Cats are outstanding at both ends of the floor, while the Volunteers are a little shaky with their own shot and defending opponents at the other end. John Calipari should have his team focused, using a loss last season in Knoxville as added motivation. Kentucky enters on a 9-3 ATS conference run, while the Vols are 1-8 ATS off a conference win over the last two seasons. Tennessee has covered just 12 of their last 37 home lined games. I'm backing Kentucky minus the points, my KO release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-23-17 | Cavs -6.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 122-124 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Cavaliers on Monday night, my Slam Dunk. Yes, the Cavs are ironing things out a bit for the postseason. At the same time, there are occasions when I believe we'll find spots to jump-in and lay the points and this is one of those spots. Cleveland is also off an OT home loss to the Spurs, a game where LeBron and company made just 12 of 22 free throws. The team wasn't too happy with their performance and we expect a focused bounce back effort here against a New Orleans' squad that will likely have Anthony Davis on the floor, but one that's lost six of their last nine games, including a 29-point loss to lowly Brooklyn last time out. Both teams will be looking to atone, but only one has the ability to do so. We'll lay the points with the Cavaliers, my Monday Slam Dunk. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-23-17 | Appalachian State +10 v. Georgia State | 72-83 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 9 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with Appalachian State, my Monday Shocker. While the records are quite different, we do believe GSU is overvalued in this spot. The Panthers are off back-to-back double digit wins, but before their last two games, they hadn't beaten a "board" team by more than eight points all season, with their previous four wins coming by an average of just 6 ppg. GSU has fattened up the win column with victories over Alabama A&M, Georgia Southwestern State, Eastern Kentucky, New Jersey Tech, and Thomas University. App State's non-conference schedule was much tougher, facing Duke, NC State, and Tennessee, and they do have six players averaging at least 7 ppg (seven players if Kelvin Robinson returns tonight). And while the Panthers are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 home games, the Mountaineers are on a humble, yet winning 3-0-1 ATS run when getting 7 to 12 1/2 points. I believe GSU is overvalued and we'll take the points with Appalachian State, out Shocker on Monday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-22-17 | Steelers v. Patriots -5.5 | Top | 17-36 | Win | 100 | 88 h 33 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Patriots, my Main Event on Sunday. Casual NFL fans point to an improved defense when they talk about Pittsburgh's chances this weekend, but I'm not buying. The Steelers aren't bad, obviously. But twice each this season the defense faced the Browns, Ravens, and Bengals, while also facing the Giants & Jets on one occasion each. That's eight games against teams that ranked 21st to 31st in scoring. The Steelers allowed 27 in a regular season loss to the Patriots and 30 points in a loss at Miami with a healthy Ryan Tannehill at QB. The playoff rematch came against Matt Moore. And a game against Indy is misleading, because the Colts were forced to use Tolzien & McAfee at QB with Andrew Luck sidelined. I expect the Patriot offense to attack the Steeler defense, topping 30 points. Eventually, I don't believe the Steelers will be able to keep up. The Pats enter on a 14-3 ATS winning run and they're on a 25-9-2 ATS run at home where they've won 33 of their last 37 outright. Finally, New England is 7-1 ATS this season against teams that allow at least 5.65 yards per play. Pittsburgh fits the bill. I'm laying the points with the Patriots, my Main Event. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-22-17 | Lakers v. Mavs -5.5 | 73-122 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with the Dallas Mavericks on Sunday, my Slam Dunk. The Mavs have enjoyed their recent meetings with the Lakers, winning 12 straight and doing so by an average margin of 12.3 ppg. And while this Dallas team isn't one of their better versions, they still beat the Lakers by 12 points in each of their first two meetings this season. I expect more of the same on Sunday. The Lakers beat Indiana last time out, snapping a 5-game skid where they allowed 117 ppg. They're 30th in the league allowing teams to make 48% of their FGA. In other words, I do believe this is "just what the doctor ordered," as Dallas looks to get back in the win column after close losses to Utah and Miami in their last two games. Los Angeles has dropped seven straight road games, while losing five in a row ATS and they're a little banged-up for this one. Meanwhile, Dallas has not only won 12 straight meetings as mentioned above, but have covered nine times. I'm laying the points with the Mavericks, my Sunday Slam Dunk. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-21-17 | Colorado State +3.5 v. Utah State | Top | 64-56 | Win | 100 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with Colorado State, my DogPound release. Defense, Rebounding, and Emmanuel Omogbo are likely to be the three key reasons why CSU pulls an upset tonight. The Rams are outstanding on the defensive end of the floor and Omogbo is unmatched in this one. The CSU forward has averaged 15.3 ppg & 10.2 rpg over his last six games. The Rams also enter on a 5-0 ATS run off a loss by 20 or more and they've covered four straight against teams with a losing record. USU allows more points than they score on average, are weak on the glass, and outside of Sam Merrill, have mediocre assist-turnover ratios among the rest of the team. The Aggies are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games. I'm taking the points with Colorado State, my DogPound release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-21-17 | Utah -3 v. Washington | 94-72 | Win | 100 | 16 h 19 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with the Utah Utes, my Saturday Knockout. These two teams both score points and play uptempo basketball. But only one of the two plays defense and that's the Utah Utes. While Washington allows 78.5 ppg and gives up high percentage shooting, the Utes hold teams to 39.7% shooting and 65.9 ppg. Six Utes average between 14.9 ppg & 9.5 ppg. They also have four solid dishers, score over 81 ppg on 51.2% shooting, and own a +11 rebound margin per game. Utah enters on a 6-1-1 ATS run and they're 6-0 ATS when laying less than seven points. Meanwhile, the defenseless Huskies are on a 1-7-1 ATS slide against teams with a winning record and they have dropped four in a row ATS as a home dog. I'm laying the points with Utah, my KO release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-21-17 | Vanderbilt +13 v. Florida | 68-66 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the Vanderbilt Commodores, my Shocker on Saturday. Florida is laying double digits and I certainly don't mind taking big points when my dog is facing a team that's mediocre when it comes to shooting accuracy and on the glass. Also, six of the Gators' top eight players in minutes played per game are upside down in the assists-turnover category. Vandy is outstanding from behind the arc and make 77% of their FTA. Four players average between 16.3 ppg & 10.3 ppg, and Riley LaChance is strong at creating open looks for others. Vandy enters on a 5-1 ATS run against teams playing better than .600 basketball on the season and they have covered four of the last five in the series. I'm backing Vanderbilt plus the points, my Shocker. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-20-17 | Warriors -4.5 v. Rockets | Top | 125-108 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Warriors. As we have seen this week (twice) when the Warriors are facing a top notch foe, they usually play with complete focus and intensity. We expect GSW to be fully focused for Houston after the Rockets handed them one of their six losses on the season, a 132-127 OT defeat in Oakland in December. Klay Thompson and Steph Curry combined to make just 13 of 42 shots in the loss. We note NBA road teams favored by 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points are on a 30-10 ATS run if they're off back-to-back double digit home wins, provided they're playing .750 basketball on the season. We'll look for GSW to remain hot. I'm laying the points with the Warriors, my Slam Dunk. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-19-17 | Portland +9 v. San Francisco | 50-75 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 43 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with Portland, my Shocker on Thursday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-19-17 | Maryland +1.5 v. Iowa | Top | 84-76 | Win | 100 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
I'm backing the Maryland Terrapins on Thursday, my CBB Shocker. Iowa is home off a horrible beatdown, losing 89-54 at Northwestern. But we don't believe they'll bounce back here. Iowa wants to play uptempo basketball and plays little defense. Meanwhile, the Terps own the style of play to throw a wrench into the Hawkeye system. Maryland has held their last nine opponents to less than 64 ppg and have allowed their five conference opponents to make just 41.4% of their FGA and an average of just 5.5 made treys per game. Take the anomaly against Michigan out of the mix and Maryland has held their other four Big-10 opponents to 39.4% shooting. While defensive play is their calling card this season, the Terps still have Melo Trimble who can match Iowa star guard Peter Jok. Maryland enters on a 5-0 ATS run when getting points, while Iowa has dropped five in a row ATS when laying less than seven points. I'm backing Maryland, my Perfect-10 on Thursday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-18-17 | Colorado +1 v. Washington | 83-85 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 50 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Colorado Buffaloes on Wednesday, my Road Warrior. Both teams are off to tough starts in the Pac-12, but CU is in better shape from our point of view. CU has dropped five straight games, the longest losing streak under Tad Boyle, but he'll still be calling the shots in Boulder next season. I doubt the same can be said for Lorenzo Romar, whose program has underwhelmed and disappointed again. Romar is firmly on the hot-seat. Colorado actually plays some defense, while UW has been horrible, ranked 211th in FG percentage allowed and 331st defending the trey. I'm betting Washington will be "just what the doctor ordered," for the Buffs, who're off much tougher opposition, having just played USC, UCLA, and Arizona. The Huskies enter on a 1-7 ATS slide against teams with a winning record and we'll back the Buffs here. I'm playing Colorado, my Road Warrior on Wednesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-18-17 | Oklahoma +17 v. West Virginia | Top | 89-87 | Win | 100 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
I'm grabbing the points with the Oklahoma Sooners on Wednesday. OU is in rebuilding mode this season and it has showed, but we like the way they have been playing of late, resulting in four straight covers. Last time out they beat Texas Tech 84-75. The return of leading scorer Jordan Woodard is obviously a big deal, he scored 27 points and hauled-in seven rebounds in the win over the Red Raiders. Just as important, OU HC Lon Kruger has been able to figure out the Mountaineers pressing style of play as well as any coach in the conference. Does that mean we expect OU to pull the outright win? No we don't. But we do expect the Sooners to keep it much closer than the number. We'll back the Sooners to make it five straight covers. I'm taking the points with Oklahoma, my DogPound release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-17-17 | San Diego State -5.5 v. UNLV | Top | 64-51 | Win | 100 | 19 h 9 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with San Diego State, my KO on Tuesday. One week ago tonight, UNLV went into The Pit as an 11-point underdog and came from behind to beat New Mexico, 71-66. The win, in our opinion, was much more of an indictment of what's going on with New Mexico rather than a sudden, "we got it," moment from the Rebels. UNLV works hard, but they're not a good basketball team. Heck, they only made 38% of their shots against the Lobos. UNLV has made just 40.9% of their FGA this season, (313th in the nation), and they rank 210th behind the arc. SDSU has fallen short of expectations thus far, but they still play a mean brand of defense, ranked 20th in the nation, allowing just 39.2% shooting. Steve Fisher's team is deep with 10 players averaging over 10 minutes played per game. I expect their defensive play to suffocate the shaky Rebels. UNLV has covered just three of their last 14 as a dog and two of their last 10 conference games. Meanwhile, SDSU has covered 16 of the last 21 meetings, including a 6-1 ATS mark in Las Vegas. I'm laying the points with San Diego State, my Knockout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-17-17 | Vanderbilt +6.5 v. Georgia | 68-76 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the Vanderbilt Commodores on Tuesday. Vandy has dropped three straight games, but they're 5-1 ATS in their last six. The loss as chalk to Tennessee is a tough pill for the Commodores to swallow, but the fact is, they're undervalued in this one, according to our power ratings. Vanderbilt puts four players in double figures in scoring per game and are one of the better 3-point shooting teams in the nation, making about 40% of their attempts. Georgia is pathetic from the deep perimeter, to say the least. And if they can't get the basketball inside, they are beatable. They have just two players averaging in double figures in scoring and no one outside of J.J. Frazier is too hot at creating shots for others. We also have a Vanderbilt team that's 8-0 ATS off a double digit home loss, which is the situation they're in tonight. I'm grabbing the points with Vanderbilt, my Shocker on Tuesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-16-17 | Jazz -5.5 v. Suns | Top | 106-101 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 36 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Utah Jazz, my Mismatch release. The Jazz have won three straight and eight of their last 11, playing outstanding defense more often then not. Utah has held seven of their last 10 opponents to 92 points or less. Tonight, they catch a Phoenix Suns squad that might be feeling a little happy with themselves after beating the Spurs last time out as a double digit underdog. The Suns are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA and allowed San Antonio to make over 50% of their FGA, but came away with the 3-point win. However, I expect the poor work on the defensive end to cost them tonight. The Suns are on a 4-13-1 ATS slide against fellow Western Conference teams, while the Jazz are on an 11-4 ATS run on the road against teams with a losing home record. Utah is also on a 4-1-1 ATS run in the series. I'm laying the points with the Jazz, my Mismatch. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-15-17 | Steelers v. Chiefs -1 | Top | 18-16 | Loss | -115 | 64 h 13 m | Show |
I'm backing the KC Chiefs, my Knockout on Sunday. Pittsburgh got "just what the doctor ordered," in the wildcard round last weekend. They took on a Dolphins' team with a backup QB and injuries to the secondary, including Byron Maxwell. But this is certainly not an ideal situation. The Steelers roll into Arrowhead with some bumps & bruises of their own, including Ben Roethlisberger, who's ankle is and could be an issue. Pittsburgh has been a little shaky on the road this season, losing to Baltimore, Miami, and Philadelphia, including 15 point and 31 point losses to the Dolphins & Eagles. Four of their road wins came against the Browns, the Colts (without Andrew Luck), the Bills, and the Bengals. KC has won six of eight at home this season and are on a 5-1 ATS run, overall. The Chiefs lost to Pittsburgh in blowout fashion in early October, but caught the Steelers off a 34-3 loss to Philly, their worst loss in 27 years. KC is more dangerous now, able to throw downfield better than in recent years. And we have an Andy Reid-coached team off a bye, where he's 19-2 SU. His teams are 16-6 ATS in all games he's coached following a bye week, winning by an average margin of 10 ppg. Meanwhile, the Steelers have covered just 14 of 38 road games off a home win under Mike Tomlin. I'm backing the KC Chiefs, my NFL Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-15-17 | Michigan State v. Ohio State -2 | 67-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
I'm laying the short points with Ohio State, my Sunday Shocker. It's been a tough run for the Buckeyes, especially when they lost the latest of their current 4-game losing streak by 23 points at Wisconsin. But Thad Matta's troops are back home today where they're 9-2 SU on the season. The Buckeyes have bounced back well off a loss by more than 20 points, covering five straight in this spot. They've played a decent brand of defensive basketball for most of the season and I expect a return to form here against a Michigan State squad that's struggled on the offensive end in road/neutral games this season, averaging just 64.6 ppg. Ohio State is holding opponents to 39.5% shooting this season and I expect a badly needed win here. I'm backing Ohio State, my Sunday Shocker. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-14-17 | UCLA -3 v. Utah | Top | 83-82 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the UCLA Bruins on Saturday. Both teams go deep as far as double digit scorers are concerned, but UCLA gets it done inside and out, while Utah owns a week deep perimeter game on the offensive end. They'll attempt to run with the Bruins, which is exactly what UCLA would like, averaging 93.4 ppg on 53.5% shooting, including a nation's best, 44.1% from behind the 3-point line. UCLA is also loaded with dishers led by Lonzo Bell (144 assists; 42 turnovers). The Utes best assist man has almost as many turnovers (42) as he does assists (44). And while Utah enters 3-9 ATS as a dog of less than seven and 0-4-1 ATS as a home dog, the Bruins are 5-1 ATS when laying single digits on the season. We'll back the UCLA Bruins minus the points, our CBB Slam Dunk. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-14-17 | Seahawks v. Falcons -4.5 | Top | 20-36 | Win | 100 | 90 h 13 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Atlanta Falcons, my Main Event on Saturday. Too much offense for the Seahawks to handle without Earl Thomas in the defensive backfield. We also have Matt Ryan and his strong home TD-INT ratio of 19 scores and only 4 picks, while Russell Wilson has not fared quite so well through the air on the road, with as many INTs as TD passes (8). In fact, Wilson has just 2 TD passes with 7 INTs in his last three road games. We also have a situation where ATL HC Dan Quinn knows quite a bit about defending the Seahawk offense. Quinn was the assistant HC & defensive line coach for Pete Carroll in 2009-2010 and returned as Seattle's defensive coordinator in 2013-2014 before taking the job in Atlanta. Seattle ranks just 25th in yards rushing per game, the offensive line has had issues, and I expect a tough outing for the Seattle offense, overall. I also expect this game to be about the Falcon offense, one of the best in the NFL, taking it to the Seattle defense. ATL OC Kyle Shanahan will allow Matt Ryan to take advantage of the less than 100% Seahawk defensive backfield. Seattle beat Atlanta 26-24 in October, but the Seahawks were at home off a bye, while the Falcons were off a road win in Denver. We note the Falcons out-gained Seattle by 50 yards and led by seven with 5 minutes to go in the game, but ultimately couldn't overcome a minus-2 turnover ratio. I'm betting ATL gets their revenge by a spread covering margin. I'm laying the points with the Falcons, my Main Event. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-14-17 | Columbia +2.5 v. Cornell | 79-75 | Win | 100 | 16 h 47 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with Columbia on Saturday, my Top Shocker. The Columbia Lions have a couple of things Cornell doesn't, including a hard-to-match forward in Luke Petrasek, who averages 14.6 ppg & 6.9 rpg. Petrasek is extra tough to defend because he can take an opposing big man outside away from the basket on the offensive end. Columbia also has the two best dishers in this game with Mike Smith & Quinton Adlesh combining for 80 assists and just 40 turnovers on the season. Cornell's top two assists men also have 80 assists combined, but have also turned the ball over 76 times. Also, the Big Red will play up to Columbia's tempo, another Lions' advantage. Columbia enters on a 4-1-1 ATS run against teams with a losing record and a 4-0 ATS run at Cornell. Meanwhile, the Big Red are 3-10 ATS as a favorite of less than seven points and they're on a 0-3-1 ATS slide off a SU win. I'm grabbing the points with Columbia, my Top Shocker. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-14-17 | Connecticut +7.5 v. Georgetown | 69-72 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the UConn Huskies, my DogPound Crusher. The Huskies couldn't get out of neutral for the first month-plus of the season. But the squad looks to have finally found their shot on the offensive end. UConn made 55 of 110 shots, 50% shooting with 33 assists and just 20 turnovers in their last two games combined, double-digit wins over Temple & UCF. We believe they've turned the corner and will now take Georgetown right to the wire, if not winning outright. UConn has played well on the defensive end all season, ranked 17th in the nation, holding teams to 38.7% shooting, including 31.9% from behind the arc. The Huskies, a one-time member of the Big East are on a 19-7-1 ATS run against their former conference. Meanwhile, the Hoyas are 4-10 ATS at home and have covered just one of their last nine off a win by more than 20 points. We're not big fans of John Thompson-III's coaching abilities and we'll grab the value here. I'm taking the points with the UConn Huskies, my DogPound on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-13-17 | Yale +1.5 v. Pennsylvania | 68-60 | Win | 100 | 16 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm backing Yale on Friday night. How much is revenge worth? Well, Penn is in 8-times revenge tonight, which shows that teams don't always avenge a season sweep. The Quakers don't shoot well, make less than 64% of their FTA, and leave a lot to be desired on the boards. Meanwhile, Yale defends the perimeter well and are in good shape on the offensive end. They have six players averaging between 13.3 ppg and 9.2 ppg. Anthony Dallier is one of the better dishers in the Ivy League and Myie Oni & Jordan Bruner are beasts on the glass, combining for more than 14 rpg. Yale is 6-1 SU in their last seven games, losing only to Temple by six points. They're on a 9-3-1 ATS run in the league and they're on an 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS run against Penn, including a 4-game SU/ATS win streak at Penn, winning by 16 ppg. I expect more of the same and I'm backing Yale on Friday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-12-17 | Valparaiso -8.5 v. Youngstown State | 78-62 | Win | 100 | 19 h 11 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with Valparaiso, my Thursday night Smash. The Crusaders have had no trouble at all with Youngstown State, sweeping the last two season's meetings, going 4-0 SU/ATS with an average win margin of more than 22 ppg. Good news for Valpo fans tonight is that YSU has yet to learn to play with urgency on the defensive end. The Penguins allow 81.6 ppg on 45.8% shooting and own a negative rebound margin. They don't shoot well at the other end and that includes Cameron Morse, who averages over 21 ppg, but makes just 39.7% of his FGA. The Penguins are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games and have covered just seven of their last 24 at home (0-4 ATS streak) allowing 84 ppg. Valpo's Alec Peters should dominate. Peters leads the team in scoring and rebounding, averaging 24.3 ppg & 10.4 rpg. Valpo won last year's meetings by scores of 97-68 and 96-65. I expect another win and cover tonight. I'm laying the points with Valparaiso, my Thursday Smash. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-12-17 | William & Mary +12 v. NC-Wilmington | Top | 77-101 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with William & Mary, my DogPound Crusher. UNCW will attempt to force an uptempo game and while their offense is typically up to it, the Seahawks aren't quite as fierce on the defensive end. UNCW ranks 329th in FG percentage allowed with opponents making 47.5% of their shots. They're mediocre on the glass and have covered just two of their last 14 against teams that average more than 77 ppg. William & Mary fits the bill on the offensive end, averaging over 81 ppg. HC Tony Shaver has a deep team with nine players averaging in double-digits in minutes played per game and a 10th who averages 9:47 per game. And we're talking about a Tribe program that has strung together three straight 20-win seasons. David Cohn is a strong distributor, while guard David Dixon and forward Omar Prewitt help form a decent outside-inside scoring game. William & Mary enters on a 5-1 ATS run as a road dog of 7 to 12 1/2 points and they're on a 5-1-1 ATS run against UNCW, including 3-0-1 ATS in Wilmington. We expect the Tribe to hang the number in this one. I'm taking the points with William & Mary, my DogPound Crusher. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-11-17 | Butler v. Creighton -4.5 | 64-75 | Win | 100 | 18 h 13 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with Creighton on Wednesday. We have backed the Blue Jays in each of their last two games with success. They won and covered on the road against St. John's and Providence, and now return home where their only loss of the season came against Villanova. Butler is just 2-2 SU on the road, with the losses coming to St. John's and Indiana State. The problem for the Bulldogs in this one is that they'll likely oblige with Creighton's fast-paced tempo, not a good idea more often than not. The Jays average 87.5 ppg on a nation's best, 53.7% shooting, including 42.2% from behind the arc. And no one has a matchup for 7-foot RS frosh Justin Patton, who takes opposing big-men outside just as easily as he operates underneath the basket. Patton also forces opposing bigs to hustle down the floor for the entire 40 and he's become the perfect compliment to Maurice Watson, Jr., who leads the nation averaging 9 apg. Creighton is on a 22-7 ATS run as a favorite and they're a perfect 4-0, 100% ATS when laying less than seven points. Butler may get payback at home on January 31, but we'll back the Blue Jays in Omaha. I'm laying the points with Creighton on Wednesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-11-17 | Fordham v. Davidson -14.5 | Top | 60-54 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
I'm laying the big spot with Davidson, my Blowout Game of the Week on Wednesday. This is not the same Fordham team that beat the Wildcats a season ago. Gone are three starters and apparently, the ability to shoot the rock. The Rams have made just 41.3% of their FGA this season, which ranks 300th in the nation. They aren't too hot from the deep perimeter either, where they rank 279th from behind the arc. That's bad news for Fordham, facing a Davidson squad that holds the opposition to 41.1% shooting. The Wildcats are led by Jack Gibbs and Peyton Aldridge, who both average over 20 ppg. Gibbs is a decent disher, as are fellow backcourt mates Jon Axl Gudmundsson and Rusty Reigel, who combine for better than a 2:1 assists/turnover ratio. They'll attack a bad defensive Fordham team, one that's allowed the opposition to make 48.2% of their FGA. Add in poor work on the boards and the Rams' are ripe for a beating from a Davidson team in revenge. The Rams enter on a 0-7-1 ATS slide, while Bob McKillop's program is on a 7-0 ATS run at home following at least four straight non-covers (averaged 83 ppg in the seven wins). I'm laying the points with Davidson, my A-10 Beatdown GOW. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-10-17 | Duke v. Florida State -1.5 | Top | 72-88 | Win | 100 | 17 h 26 m | Show |
I'm backing Florida State, my Knockout on Tuesday night. We've been on the Seminoles a couple times of late and we'll back them against Duke. The 'Noles are still flying a little under the radar. They're not only talented, but the talent runs deep with 11 players averaging in double digits in minutes played. FSU is the 8th best shooting team in college baskets and play just as well at the other end of the floor where they hold teams to 38.9% shooting (23rd stingiest). Six players average between 18 ppg & 7 ppg and everyone knows their role. Xavier Rathan-Mayes continues to be one of the best dishers in the ACC, while Jonathan Issac is an ultra tough matchup on the glass. Duke owns excellent talent once again, but Coach-K is missing from the bench and the Blue Devils are mediocre from behind the arc. Duke enters on a 0-5 ATS slide as a dog of less than seven points and they're on a 1-7 ATS slide in the ACC. Meanwhile, FSU has covered six of their last seven conference games. I'm backing Florida State, my Knockout on Tuesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-08-17 | Warriors -10 v. Kings | Top | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Warriors, my Sunday Knockout. We had Golden State on Friday night and watched them give away a 24-point second half lead, falling apart in the fourth quarter, getting out-scored 64-31 to finish the game in an outright loss to Memphis. When it became apparent the Warriors were not going to cover, I was happy to see them lose outright, so we could come back with them here. Even Draymond Green said he was happy they lost after blowing the big lead. He said the team needs to make adjustments and change things up if they wish to compete for an NBA title. I do expect a fired-up effort in this one and even if they have a big lead I think finishing up strong in the final 12 minutes is going to be important to the team in this game. GSW is on a 26-12-1 ATS run after allowing more than 125 points. They're on a 9-1 ATS run against the Kings (dominating the series SU), and Sacto has dropped four straight ATS at home. I'm laying the points with the Warriors, my Sunday Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |