I'm taking the points with the 49ers on Sunday.  Jimmy G. will look to extend his perfect record as a starting QB to 7-0, including 5-0 with the Niners. Meanwhile, the Rams are expected to rest starters with nothing on the line as far as playoff positioning is concerned.  SFO plus the points on Sunday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Cardinals on Sunday.  As tough as the season has been on Arizona from an injury standpoint and HC Bruce Arians' health, the Cardinals still have a shot to end Seattle's season, while finishing at .500, themselves.  We had Seattle last weekend and watched the Seahawks become the first NFL team since November, 1966, to win a game while finishing with more penalty yards than total yards.  While we won, we were disappointed in their offensive numbers, especially off the 42-7 loss to the Rams the previous week. We doubt they find a lot of success here.  After all, you can't run on the Cardinals and they're 6th in total yards allowed per game.  The pressure is on Seattle.  They're not THAT much better than Arizona and now the Cardinals have added motivation with Arians likely stepping down following this game.  The road team is 5-0-1 ATS in this series and Seattle has covered just one of their last five home games.  And finally, under Bruce Arians, the Cardinals are a perfect 7-0 ATS in revenge of a loss by 7 points or less. The average final score: Arizona 31-10. We'll grab the points with the Cardinals, our Top Shocker on Sunday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the Bulls plus the points on Sunday afternoon.  Chicago has been fattening bankrolls and we have been on them in their last few covers.  We'll back them again here and for the same reasons as before.  The Bulls are red-hot with Nikola Mirotic back on the floor.  He's helped his squad to a 10-2 SU run and the Bulls have covered 12 of their last 13 games.  As mentioned the other night when we covered with the Bulls on these pages, Chicago is a different team with Nikola Mirotic on the floor.  The big winning streak began with his return after he missed the entire season up to that point.  Mirotic leads the team in scoring and is co-leader in rebounds per game with Lauri Markkanen, averaging about 7 1/2 per player per night.  Everybody's life gets easier up front when Mirotic is healthy, including Robin Lopez.  Chicago enters on an 8-1 ATS run when playing with one day off between games.  Washington also played two nights ago and enjoyed a 121-103 win over Houston.  But they've covered just one of their last six off a SU win and the dog in this series has dominated ATS.  We're backing the Bulls, our Daytime Dominator on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing Bradley on Sunday.  Bradley has been a tough place to play for opponents going back decades and it's no different now as the Braves are 20-5-1 ATS their last 26 home games.  Also, Bradley is 15-5-1 ATS its last 21 games overall and this is the best team it's had in several years.  The Braves are 10-4 and 7-4-1 ATS and undefeated at home and they covered the number both meetings last season.  Northern Iowa is just 3-6 ATS and has lost its last three games while not covering in any of them. Bradley just finished a road trip in which it split four games. The Braves are led by Darrell Brown, who averages 13.6 points and leads the team with 53 assists.  Elijah Childs averages 7.9 points and 6.4 rebounds and has 18 blocked shots.  Northern Iowa has played one true road game and lost it by 17 points to North Carolina.  The Panthers are only 4-17 ATS against teams with at least .600 winning percentages and the home team is 8-3-1 ATS the last 12 meetings.  I'm backing Bradley on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Green Bay Packers on Sunday.  Detroit is left with nothing to play for after failing to win a "must win" game against Cincinnati. That's a tough loss and I expect the Lions to be a little less than motivated for this one.  Green Bay will not only look to exact revenge for a 30-17 loss to the Lions earlier this season, while Brett Hundley was trying to learn the ropes, but while Detroit is disappointed with last week's loss, Green Bay will still be playing to win as they look to further Hundley's development.  After winning two in a row, the Packers were in next to impossible situations the last two weeks.  And before taking on the fierce Vikings' defense last week, Hundley had thrown 6 TD passes with just 1 INT in his previous three starts. Detroit's bad against the pass and owns the NFL's worst ground game. I expect the Pack to take advantage of both, even without WR's Adams and Nelson.  Green Bay is on a 7-0 ATS run on the road after scoring less than 10 points.  And under the direction of HC Mike McCarthy, the Packers are 25-12 ATS against teams that allow a completion rate of 64 percent or better, during the second half of the season.  I'm taking the points with the Packers on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Arizona State on Saturday night.  Arizona State is undefeated and 10-2 ATS, but still not getting enough respect, which has forced the linemaker to install the Sun Devils as a 5 to 6-point underdog for this matchup.  ASU is 19-7 ATS its last 26 games overall and already owns outright wins over Kansas State, Xavier and Kansas - all away from home.  The Sun Devils come off a 39-point win over Pacific in which it shot 53.7 percent from the field while holding the Tigers to 35.8 percent.  Defensively, Arizona State holds opponents to just a .409 field goal percentage and 71.7 points per game.  Arizona played three decent opponents in November and lost them all to N.C. State, SMU and Purdue before winning in overtime at UNLV.  The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS their last eight games against teams with winning records and the controversy regarding the FBI investigation into the U of A program sure doesn't make for an easy feeling in Tucson this season.  This is a statement game for the Sun Devils and we believe they're up to the task.  I'm taking the points with Arizona State on Saturday night.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Louisville on December 30. We could be seeing Cardinals' QB Lamar Jackson for the final team as a collegiate signal caller and we expect a huge game from the 2016 Heisman winner, whether he's coming back to school or not. Jackson's numbers his junior season surpassed those of his Heisman winning campaign. After another season of taking care of the football, Jackson has 55 TD passes and just 15 INTs the last two seasons combined. Obviously, defenses have to worry about his running ability, also, and there's no way, not even with a month to prep, that most teams can account for his dual-threat capability. Mississippi State will also have to prepare for Jackson's talented and deep list of targets. Louisville has six players with more than 20 receptions on the season and five of those six average 11 to 16.5 yards per catch. The Bulldogs have relied on their defense this season and one reason has been due to a lack of a passing game on offense. MSU ranks 109th in yards passing per game and that was with a healthy Nick Fitzgerald behind center. Fitzgerald will miss the bowl game (knee) and the next best passer has completed just 21 of 46 attempts this season. MSU will have to rely on RB Aeris Williams, but that's no way to play successful "keep up" with the Cardinal offense. Finally, Mississippi State lost HC Dan Mullen to Florida. We like the hiring of Penn State OC Jim Moorhead, but he's not going to help them here. We expect a big performance from the Louisville offense and we'll lay the points. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Chicago Bulls on Friday night.  The Bulls are red-hot with Nikola Mirotic back on the floor.  He's helped his squad to a 9-2 SU run and the Bulls have padded bankrolls, covering 11 of their last 12 games.  As mentioned the other night when we covered with the Bulls on these pages, Chicago is a different team with Nikola Mirotic on the floor. The big winning streak began with his return after he missed the entire season up to that point.  Mirotic leads the team in scoring and is co-leader in rebounds per game with Lauri Markkanen, averaging about 7.5 per player per night. Everybody's life gets easier up front when Mirotic is healthy, including Robin Lopez.  Victor Oladipo is out with a knee injury, which costs the Pacers his 25 points and 5 rebounds per night, along with his work on the defensive end.  Chicago fell two points short in a 98-96 loss to Indiana on December 6, the game before Mirotic returned.  The Bulls were outscored 29-13 over the final 12 minutes of the game.  We also note Oladipo had 27 & 8 in the win.  As mentioned earlier, the Bulls are on an 11-1 ATS run and the chalk has covered five of the last six meetings.  I expect more of the same tonight.  I'm laying the points with the Bulls on Friday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Texas Tech on Friday night.  Texas Tech is undefeated at home and Baylor has played one true road game and lost 76-63 at Xavier.  The Red Raiders can play 10 deep while the Bears are getting by with between six and eight scholarship players and one of them, Terry Maston (11.7 ppg, 7.7 rebounds), is out with a hand injury. Texas Tech has covered the number the last three meetings and it's 9-3 ATS its last 12 games against teams with .600 or better winning percentages dating to last season.  Point guard Keenan Evans leads the Red Raiders at 16.5 points per game and Jarrett Culver and Zhaire Smith average 10.2 points apiece.  Baylor loves the 3-pointer, but Texas Tech holds opponents to 30.1 percent from beyond the arc and just 58.7 points per game.  The Red Raiders also can match up well offensively as they shoot at a .494 clip, including .373 from 3-point distance.  I'm laying the points with Texas Tech, our Friday night Slam Dunk. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Wake Forest on Friday.  This is a virtual home game for the Demon Deacons, but that's not one of the main reasons we're on them. Texas A&M reminds me a bit of UCLA heading into the bowls.  The Aggies are off a disappointing regular season. They have a defense that allowed a ton of points on the road, an average of 35 ppg.  They're middle of the road in just about every key category.  And A&M will use an assistant as their interim coach before Jimbo Fisher takes over after the bowl season.  A&M enters on a 0-5 ATS slide against ACC teams and will face an excited Wake Forest team that beat Louisville by 10 points, gained 587 yards against Notre Dame, came within 53-seconds and a 40-yard Seminole TD pass of a possible win in a 7-point loss to Florida State, and certainly didn't embarrass themselves in a 28-14 loss to Clemson.  Wake QB John Wolford has had a tremendous season with 25 TD passes and only 6 INTs.  He's a 64% passer, averaging 8.6 yards per pass attempt, and he ran for 615 yards on 5 yards per carry.  We note that Wolford is 10th best in the nation in passing efficiency.  Wolford and the Demon Deacon offense will face the Aggies' defense, one that allowed 42 points or more on four occasions.  Texas A&M should score some points, but I'm betting their defense will be out-matched and the offense won't be able to keep up.  Besides A&M's 0-5 ATS spot mentioned above, they've covered just 16 of their last 54 against teams with a winning record.  Meanwhile, Wake is 8-2 ATS against teams with a winning record. I'm laying the points with Wake Forest, our Best Bet KO!  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Stanford on Thursday.  Both teams lost their final game of the season in conference title tilts.  But while Stanford came within a couple of plays of winning the Pac-12 in their 31-28 loss to USC, TCU's status in Big-12 play and nationally was essentially reaffirmed as a good but not elite football team.  The Horned Frogs were no match for the OU ground game in either meeting this season, even though the overall numbers say they're top-5 in the nation in yards rushing allowed.  QB Kenny Hill finished the season with 21 TD passes and just 6 INTs.  Those numbers are misleading.  Take away games against the hapless and out-manned defenses of Jacksonville State, SMU, and Kansas, and Hill's numbers drop to a measly 8 TD passes with 5 picks.  We're betting TCU's offense will have a tougher night against Stanford's defense, than the Cardinal offense will have against TCU's stop unit.  Stanford ranks 30th in the nation running the football and own the best player on the field in RB Bryce Love, who's expected to play.  We also feel the Cardinal offensive line will wear down the TCU defense leading to a decent night from QB K.J. Costello.  The Stanford signal caller threw 6 TD passes with no INTs in his final two games against Notre Dame and USC, while averaging over 8 yards per pass attempt.  The Cardinal will aim for their fourth straight bowl win and fifth in their last six tries.  They're 6-2 ATS in their last eight bowl games, 13-3 ATS off a loss, and 5-1 ATS in neutral site affairs.  Meanwhile, TCU has covered just two of their last eight bowl games and they're on a 2-9 ATS slide in neutral site games.  I'm taking the points with Stanford in Thursday's Alamo Bowl.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Tulane on Thursday.  Mike Dunleavy Sr. is doing a good job turning around the Tulane basketball program as the Green Wave already has surpassed last year's win total with a 9-3 record.  Tulane shoots 46.4 percent from the field while holding opponents to 42.3 percent and 70.9 points per game.  Cameron Reynolds was named the Most Improved Player in the AAC last season and he's averaging 16.5 points this year along with Melvin Frazier, who leads the team with a 16.8 scoring average and 6.7 rebounds per game.  Tulane took the Owls to overtime before losing on this court in February and the Green Wave is much improved this year with the additions of Jordan Cornish and Samir Sehic who combine for 20.7 points per game.  Temple comes off an 84-66 loss at Georgia for its fourth loss in eight games (we had Georgia on these pages).  Temple is 0-3-1 ATS its last four home games and 0-5-1 ATS its last six games overall.  I'm taking the points with Tulane, our DogPound Crusher on Thursday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Nevada on Wednesday night.  Eric Musselman will have his team focused after Nevada was upset by San Francisco as a 12.5-point favorite on Saturday in Las Vegas.  The Wolf Pack is 14-2 ATS after a loss and 15-5-1 ATS following an ATS loss dating to previous seasons.  Also, UNR is 37-15-2 ATS its last 54 games overall and has covered seven of its last 10 road games.  Fresno State has losses to Arkansas and Evansville on the road and to Oregon at home.  Point guard Jaron Hopkins has missed the last four games with a back injury and might play tonight, but his minutes may be limited. Nevada Forward Jordan Caroline had an off night against the Dons with just six points and four rebounds on 2-of-12 shooting and will look to make a statement against the Bulldogs, who gave him trouble last season.  Nevada won in the MWC tourney, but lost both regular season meetings.  Don't expect another slow start for the Wolf Pack after its humbling defeat to San Francisco.  We expect a focused effort for the entire 40 and we're backing Nevada minus the points.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Purdue on Wednesday night.  Jeff Brohm has done a quick and terrific job in making the Boilermakers competitive and postseason bound.  We like the attention to detail on defense, especially late in the season when they held their final five opponents to an average of 84 yards rushing per game on 2.47 yards per carry.  At 6-6 SU and due to a recent lack of success prompting the hiring of Brohm, Purdue is no doubt excited to be here.  And while they were "just" 6-6, four of the losses came by one score. The Purdue defense will face a one-dimensional Arizona offense with little semblance of a passing game (110th in the nation).  If Purdue plays the kind of defense they did in their final five games, U of A will be hard-pressed to move the ball consistently.  Meanwhile, Arizona's defense has a lot of holes ranked 90th against the run, 122nd against the pass, and 117th in points allowed per game.  We have the better coached team, the better defensive team, and the more motivated team, and we're getting points.  Purdue heads into this one on a 4-0 ATS non-conference run, while the Wildcats have covered just one of their last six bowl games and have dropped four in a row ATS at neutral sites.  I'm taking the points with Purdue on Wednesday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Denver Nuggets on Tuesday night.  When last these teams met, the Jazz blew the Nuggets off the floor in a 106-77 win as a 1-point home underdog.  Utah was in the middle of a six-game winning streak, where they averaged 115.5 ppg and won by an average margin of 24 ppg.  They beat three teams by 29 or more points during the run.  Things are not going so well now for the Jazz.  They've dropped eight of their last 10 games SU, covering just four and the losses have come by an average margin of nearly 14 ppg.  Denver has covered four of their last five games and went into Christmas break off of wins over Golden State and Portland, both coming on the road.  The Nuggets have covered six of their last eight and the home team has covered six straight in this series.  Denver was playing their fourth road game in five contests and fifth of seven on the road when they traveled to Salt Lake in the blowout loss.  Obviously, they're better rested, healthier, and in a better spot this time.  We're laying the points with the Nuggets on Tuesday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

The title of this game says "Arkansas State." Obviously, it's meant to be "Kansas State."  I'm laying the points with Kansas State on Tuesday.  Reports are saying Josh Rosen is not likely to suit-up tonight, (more on that in a bit).  We normally give Bill Snyder about a 1-point advantage over most college football coaches, but in this case he might be worth a little more.  After Jim Mora, Jr., was sacked, UCLA soon named Chip Kelly as their HC, but of course, his era begins after the bowl game.  The Bruins' named OC Jedd Fisch interim coach.  Fisch has been an assistant for 20 years with several different locales, but never a HC job.  It's his job to try and make the most out of a disappointing season for a team that lost its coach and whose star QB (concussion) will likely take a pass as he readies himself for the 2018 NFL draft.  Even if Rosen changes his mind and decides to play, he's less than 100% healthy and we'll play against the Bruins, anyway.  UCLA didn't play well outside of Pasadena as it was.  The Bruins lost all six games away from the Rose Bowl this season (1-5 ATS), allowing an average of 45.5 ppg! The Kansas State offense should have little trouble running at and through a Bruin defense ranked 129th in the nation against the run.  Meanwhile, the Bruins ranked 114th on the ground on offense and if Rosen doesn't play, they will struggle to throw over the top of the healthy K-State defense.  UCLA has struggled outside of Pac-12 play in general, currently on a 1-7 ATS slide in their last eight non-conference games. I'm laying the points with Kansas State on Tuesday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Seahawks on Sunday.  Dallas is fighting for their playoff lives, but are overvalued in this spot.  Zeke Elliott makes his return and the public certainly loves that scenario, but while Nazair Jones is doubtful, Seattle is finally looking a bit healthier on the defensive end. Michael Bennett, Earl Thomas, and Bobby Wagner are all set to suit-up and take the field on Sunday.  Dallas won't be facing the same defense the Rams saw last week.  And the Cowboys might not have their best offensive linemen, Tyron Smith for this one.  At the very least, Smith will take the field well short of 100% healthy thanks to a sore knee. Meanwhile, several Cowboy defenders are hit-and-miss with sore backs.  Seattle's 9-2 ATS off two or more consecutive losses under Pete Carroll, holding those 11 opponents to an average of 14 ppg. Dallas has covered just 14 of their last 43 as home chalk under Jason Garrett.  And finally, the Seahawks are on a 16-8 ATS run with Russell Wilson at QB when getting points.  We'll take the points with the Seahawks on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Tennessee Titans on Sunday.  The Rams are heading to Nashville after five straight intense situations that began with games against the Vikings and Saints and ended with their last two against the Eagles and Seahawks.  That's obviously tough on any NFL team.  The Rams do have one weakness, their run defense and that's what Tennessee does best.  When the ground game finds success, Marcus Mariota is at his best.  Four of Mariota's five best passer rating games this season came at home and he'll face a banged-up Rams' secondary.  The Titans are 5-1 SU at home this season and on a 7-2-1 ATS run at home.  They're in virtual must-win mode and while not every team comes through in this situation, we believe the Titans will hang the number at the very least. Tennessee lost last time out, but they've covered four of their last five off a SU loss.  The Rams are in a tough spot and we'll grab the points with the Titans on Sunday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. The Lions are in virtual must-win mode and we don't believe they're going to accomplish their goal.  Cincy is off two horrible performances, about as bad as it gets, but we're betting they bounce back in what will be HC Marvin Lewis' final home game.  The Bengals lost an incredible emotional and physical battle with the Steelers a few weeks ago, and basically allowed a couple more times. We went against Cincy off the loss and cashed easily with the Bears.  Last week, the Bengals were still banged-up and listless.  They might not have Vontaze Burfict back (concussion), he's listed as questionable, they're not 100% healthy (what team is at this point) but they are healthier than they were the last two weeks.  Detroit has a lot to play for, but have rarely come through in these spots. They're 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven on the road against teams with a losing record and have covered just 7 of their last 24 December games.  Marvin Lewis teams have been tremendous money-makers late in the season during his Bengals tenure and after a couple bad losses, we expect a return to form, at least for this week.  Cincy is 16-7 ATS in their last 23 December games and 8-2 ATS at home against teams with a winning record. I'm grabbing the points with the Bengals on Sunday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Missouri on Saturday night.  Illinois lost four of its top five scorers from last season's 20-15 squad and it appears that new coach Brad Underwood will need more than one season to get the Illini back to that level. Illinois has lost five of its last seven games, including 74-69 to New Mexico State as a 6.5-point favorite last Saturday while shooting just 43.5 percent from the field.  Meanwhile, Counzo Martin is working wonders at Missouri as his team is 10-2 and on a current five-game winning streak after an 8-24 season in 2016-17.  The Tigers did have a scare against Stephen F. Austin winning by a point and shooting 55.8 percent with Kassius Robertson scoring a team-leading 23 points and Jordan Barnett adding 22 points for the Tigers.  Missouri has extra incentive as it has lost four straight to Illinois during the lean years when Kim Anderson failed to have any success during his time as coach.  Missouri has a .502 field goal percentage and holds opponents to .394 and just 66.6 points per game.  The Illini enter on a 1-9 ATS slide against teams that make at least 48 percent of their shots, losing by an average margin of 17 ppg.  Mizzou exacts some revenge and we're laying the points with the Tigers.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Celtics on Saturday night.  Chicago has been a different team since getting Nikola Mirotic back on the floor and the Celtics have cooled off following their incredible start to the season, but Boston owns a nice revenge situation here.  We expect to see Boston's best after getting crushed 108-85 by the Bulls less than two full weeks ago. Boston is 5-1-1 ATS off a SU loss and they have covered five of the last seven meetings in Boston.  And finally, they're 41-24 ATS in revenge of a SU loss under Brad Stevens.  I'm laying the points with the Celtics on Saturday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Toledo on Saturday.  We have a rematch from last year's bowls when Appalachian State beat Toledo, 31-28.  But we like what HC Jason Candle has done since taking over for Matt Campbell when he took the job in Ames, Iowa.  This year's Rockets' offense is a step above last year's. QB Logan Woodside is an accurate passer with plenty of weaponry around him and has tossed more than 90 TD passes with less than two dozen INTs in his career, including a 28-5 TD-INT mark this season.  He's completed 13 passes of 40 yards or more and hits the intermediate passes well.  Then there's the Toledo ground game.  Not only do the Rockets have Terry Swanson and his 1,300+ yards rushing, but they have two more RBs who combined for more than 1,300 yards between the two of them.  Taylor Lamb is a decent dual-threat QB for Appalachian State, but I highly doubt they're going to be able to push Toledo around on the ground without opening up the passing game early.  The problem for ASU is that Toledo ranked in the top-3 in pass efficiency defense in the MAC.  I simply don't believe App State will be able to "keep up" in the rematch.  Unfortunately, bowl rematches are so rare that there aren't any pertinent angles to mention.  But the Rockets have covered six of eight and they're 16-4-1 ATS after rushing for more than 200 yards in their previous game.  We're laying the points with Toledo on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Kentucky on Saturday afternoon.  UCLA has had a tumultuous season filled with suspensions and players leaving the team and the Bruins are just 3-8 ATS with a couple of close wins against what were supposed to be undermanned teams.  The Bruins had to go overtime to beat Central Arkansas earlier in the season and barely survived against South Dakota on Tuesday and both of those games were at home.  Kentucky won its revenge match against the Bruins 86-75 in March and that was when UCLA had Lonzo Ball.  The Wildcats have different players this year, but most of the starters are potential NBA first round draft picks. Kentucky hasn't lost since a 65-61 defeat to Kansas on Nov. 14 and the Wildcats are 4-1 ATS their last five games, including 93-86 against Virginia Tech last week. UCLA is 3-11 ATS its last 14 games against SEC teams and the Wildcats have covered five of their last seven versus Pac-12 schools.  Also, Steve Alford's squads are 5-17 ATS their last 22 games against teams with winning records. More of the same.  We're laying the points with Kentucky, our Daytime Dominator.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with UNLV on Friday night.  The Rebels are 9-2 ATS its last 11 home games dating to last season and its only losses this season have been in overtime to Northern Iowa and  Arizona.  Coach Marvin Menzies definitely has the program on the upward swing and the Runnin' Rebels are playing the best they have in several years. The Rebels come off an expected easy 95-63 win over Mississippi Valley State after beating Pacific in a game that wasn't as close as the score indicated.  The Rebels shot 63% against MVSU with incredible balanced scoring as seven players scored between 10 and 13 points.  Northern Colorado is 9-3 but this will be its toughest test of the season so far as UNLV is shooting 52.2% and averaging 90.9 points compared to 43% and 71 points for the Bears.  UNLV's defense also has been superb holding opponents to just a .389 field goal percentage. Northern Colorado's underdog win at Wyoming caught UNLV's attention. UNLV is 7-1-1 ATS against Big Sky opposition and we expect them to be focused on this one from start to finish.  We're laying the points with UNLV, our Bailout Blowout. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing Central Michigan in Friday's Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.  Motivation means so much when it comes to minor bowls and the team that "owns it" is often the team that cashes tickets. In this case, the Wyoming fan base has reportedly shown little interest in traveling to Boise, something they do every other year in MWC play.  More importantly, QB Josh Allen isn't 100% healthy.  He's been bothered by a sore shoulder and is listed as questionable, along with a couple linemen on both sides of the line of scrimmage.  Even if Allen starts, he certainly didn't have the season many had projected, due to the lack of weapons around him.  Allen completed just 56% of his passes with a mediocre TD/INT mark of 13 & 6.  The Cowboys don't have much of a ground game either.  In fact, Trey Woods was the busiest Cowboys' back this season, carrying the ball 133 times, but averaged just 3.5 yards per carry. Wyoming finished the season ranked from 101st to 120th in yards passing per game, yards rushing per game, total yards, and points scored per contest. CMU was terrific against the pass this season. Offensively, four of senior QB Shane Morris' top five receivers are seniors.  And while the rushing stats may not look terrific, overall, they will have the most successful RB in this matchup in Jonathan Ward who ran for 6 yards per carry and finished just 12 yards shy of a 1,000-yard season.  The Chips are on a 5-0 spread run, while Wyoming went just 2-6 ATS in non-conference action.  Finally, I like CMU's added motivaton: The Chips' senior class will make their fourth straight postseason appearance and will be highly motivated to garner their first win. I'm backing Central Michigan in Friday's Idaho Potato Bowl.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Idaho on Thursday.  UC Irvine lost again 86-68 at Montana on Tuesday (we had Montana) and the Anteaters now have five losses in a row and this is their fifth straight game away from home and no improvement is in sight.  Montana shot 52.5 percent compared to 42.9 percent for the Anteaters whose leading scorer was John Edgar Jr. with just 13 points.  Idaho was picked to win the Big Sky Conference and has all five starters back from last year's 19-14 squad.  The Vandals have an 8-3 record and they have covered the number four of six lined games.  This game is being played in Boise as part of the Holiday Hoops Classic.  The Vandals blew out Western Michigan 82-52 on the road on Monday holding the Broncos to 16 points in the first half.  Idaho holds opponents to just 27.8 percent from 3-point range and on offense it is 10th in the country in 3-point field goal percentage (.424).  Victor Sanders scored 25 points and Jordan Scott added 10 points and 13 rebounds and the Vandals shot 50.0 percent against WMU. UC Irvine is 3-12 ATS its last 15 games dating to last season.  Idaho takes care of business against teams with sub-.400 records, posting an 11-3 ATS mark the last 14 times.  I'm laying the points with Idaho, our KO on Thursday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with FIU in Thursday's bowl action.  What a turnaround for the Panther seniors and they have chance to cap it off with a bowl win.  Butch Davis has done a fantastic job in a short time and we like a couple things going for them here.   Temple's defense left a lot to be desired this season.  FIU owns the better ground game, which we really like when getting a TD and Temple wasn't too hot against the run this season.  FIU can hammer away with three RBs rushing for more than 420 yards on the season, including Alex Gardner, who leads the way with 765 yards rushing.  QB Alex McGough is a dangerous QB, who completed over 65% of his passes.  McGough threw 12 TD passes with just 2 picks over his final 6 games, completing over 70% of his pass attempts in four of the six games.  Finally, while this isn't a true home game, it is being played in St. Petersburg, which is a short hop, skip, and jump for Panther fans, giving them a bit of a home field feel.  We believe the line is too high and we'll grab the points with FIU on Thursday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Oregon State on Thursday.  Kent State comes off a 22-14 season and was expected to finish near the top of the MAC East Division, but apparently the losses of All-MAC forward Jimmy Hall and Deon Edwin from last year's squad has been too much to overcome.  The Golden Flashes are 5-6 and 2-5 ATS and have lost six of their last eight games, including by 26 points at Xavier followed by losses at Wright State and at home by 12 against Northeastern.  The Flashes don't bounce back well from bad losses, covering just two of their last 12 off a double digit defeat. The Flashes are shooting only 42.8 percent and Oregon State has a .484 field goal percentage and the Beavers have won six in a row.  The return of Tres Tinkle (coach's son) has been a stabilizing force after he played only six games last season due to an injury. Tinkle averages 17.5 points and a team-leading 7.0 rebounds and Stephen Thompson Jr. averages 15.5 points and leads the team with 39 assists.  The teams met last year and the Beavers won by 19 points without Tinkle and Kent State shot 27.6 percent.  OSU has covered four of its last five road games dating to last season and we like them here.  I'm backing Oregon State, our Road Warrior.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Houston on Wednesday.  Kelvin Sampson is doing a great job of blending in his returnees with junior college transfers and the Cougars are off to a 9-2 start and have covered four of their last five lined games.  Houston not only is shooting at a 49.1 percent clip, but the defense is holding opponents to just 40.1 percent. Also, the Cougars are shooting 42.4 percent from 3-point range, which even tops last season's 39.4 percent. Providence is just 2-7 ATS and three of their guards are doubtful for this game. Maliek White, Alpha Diallo and Kyron Cartwright average 26.9 points combined and all are injured.  Forward Emmitt Holt already had been lost for the season with an abdominal  injury.  The Friars were fortunate to beat Stony Brook on Sunday and that followed a loss at Massachusetts after they needed overtime to defeat Brown.  Providence won't have enough firepower to keep up with the Cougars.  I'm laying the points with Houston on Wednesday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with St. John's on Wednesday.  Chris Mullin appears to be bringing back the glory years at St. John's as it's off to a 9-2 start with the only losses coming against Missouri and Arizona State.  Guard Marcus LoVett is out with a knee injury, but the Red Storm still won and covered against Iona on Sunday while holding the Gaels to a .349 shooting percentage.  Shamorie Ponds led five players in double figures with 16 points and Bashir Ahmed added 12 points and 11 rebounds.  St. Joseph's has much worse injury problems as Lamarr Kimble went down for the second year in a row and is out for the season and forward Charlie Brown is out indefinitely with a wrist injury.  The Hawks have lost every game this season when they had to step up in competition and they are 0-7-1 ATS their last eight games against Big East teams and 0-6 ATS at neutral sites dating to previous seasons.  The Red Storm is holding opponents to just 37.3 percent from the field.  We're laying the points with St. John's on Wednesday afternoon.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Georgia Tech on Tuesday.  Georgia Tech's hopes have been bolstered by the return of sophomore guard Josh Okogie, who missed the first eight games of the season due to a suspension and then an injury and he scored 19 points in a 79-54 win over Florida A&M on Sunday.  However, that still doesn't excuse the Yellow Jackets losing its three previous games to Grambling State, Tennessee and Wofford and it was the first time they covered the spread since the season opener against UCLA, which was played in China. Georgia won last year's meeting 60-43 even with Okogie in the lineup and the Bulldogs won the year before by 14 points.  Georgia is 7-2 and it does come off a 72-62 loss at Massachusetts when it shot only 35.5 percent.  Georgia is allowing only a .400 field goal percentage against a tougher schedule than Georgia Tech has played.  The home team is 11-5 ATS the last 16 meetings and the Bulldogs are 6-2-1 ATS the last nine meetings at home.  I'm laying the points with Georgia, our Rivalry Beatdown.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Montana on Tuesday.  UC Irvine lost all-conference selection Jaron Martin to graduation and therefore lacked experience at the guard position coming into the season and the Anteaters are off to a 4-9 start and just 3-7 ATS.  Irvine is 1-7 on the road and has lost eight of its last 10 games with the only wins coming against Northern Arizona and small school Whittier.  Montana comes off a 77-61 win over UC Riverside while shooting 50 percent and holding the Highlanders to just a .385 shooting percentage.  The Grizzlies return four starters from last year's squad and have six players that are least 6 feet 6 inches tall.  Montana is shooting 50.0 percent at home and averaging 81.5 points per game while Irvine is scoring only 63.9 points on the road.  Irvine is 3-11 ATS its last 14 games dating to last season and they've covered just 9 of their last 28 road games against teams with a winning record.  I'm laying the points with Montana on Tuesday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

Late release:  I'm backing the Bucks on Tuesday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott.

I'm laying the points with East Carolina on Monday.  Two teams that have different coaches than who started the season face each other and East Carolina has won three in a row since Michael Perry took over for Jeff Lebo on Nov. 29.  Charlotte fired Mark Price on Thursday and assistant coach Houston Fancher will make his head coaching debut at the school tonight. The 49ers are 0-6 ATS this season and have lost all three road games, including 64-50 at Chattanooga on Dec. 10.  Charlotte allows opponents a .480 shooting percentage and it has lost its last four games overall without covering the spread in any of them.  The Pirates came from 17 points down to defeat Campbell 69-66 on Dec. 4 and since have had two weeks off.  ECU has three double-figure scorers in a guard-oriented offense, including B.J. Tyson (15.8 ppg), Isaac Fleming (14.3) and Kentrell Barkley (13.2).  Charlotte is 7-19 ATS its last 26 road games and East Carolina is 7-1 ATS its last eight home games.  Also, the 49ers are 1-11-1 ATS their last 13 non-conference games.  I'm laying the points with East Carolina on Monday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Oakland Raiders on Sunday night.  Neither team can afford a loss in what will be a virtual playoff game.  We're questioning what Dallas has done to deserve to be a FG road favorite in this matchup.  The only thing we learned from last week's win over the Giants is that New York gave up on the situation.  Dallas still struggles in the passing game on both sides of the line of scrimmage.  They've allowed 2 TD passes or more in eight games this season and the secondary is certainly one Oakland QB Derek Carr can do damage against and we believe he will.  Dak Prescott has had back-to-back strong performances, but against hapless and banged-up defenses playing with little motivation.  Before facing the Giants & Skins, Prescott hadn't thrown a TD pass in three games, while firing five INTs.  At the very least, he'll see his first motivated opponent in three weeks.  Dallas has covered just 28 of 69 as chalk under Jason Garett and they're 26-39 ATS in the second half of the season during his coaching tenure. Oakland is 4-3 SU in their last seven games and two of the three losses came against New England and resurgent Kansas City, while the third came at Buffalo, a tough spot following divisional games against rivals Kansas City and the Chargers.  We bring the scheduling up for both teams because we believe the results have led to faulty public perception and line value on the home dog.  I'm taking the points with the Raiders on Sunday night.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Washington Wizards on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the New England Patriots on Sunday.  Losing a game in the second half of the season is not unusual for the Patriots.  In fact, they did so again last season, losing 31-24 to Seattle.  Russell Wilson lit-up a shaky looking New England defense, completing 25 of 37 passes for 348 yards with 3 TD passes and no INTs.  The "what's wrong with the Pats' defense," folks came out of the woodwork.  New England then won their final 10 games, covering nine, including another Super Bowl win.  The Pats looked flat on Monday.  But they were far less than 100% due to injuries on both sides of the football, not to mention Rob Gronkowski's absence due to his one game suspension.  That won't be the case this week and we like the Pats to bounce back in this key contest.  New England has won four straight meetings, including each of the last three seasons by an average margin of 12.3 ppg.  The Pats are on a 24-8 ATS run, overall, and they're 8-2 SU & 7-2 ATS when Brady faces the Steelers.  Pittsburgh has been putting points on the board lately, but they also allow quite a few, giving up 86 points in their last three games and the loss of Ryan Shazier looms big against the Brady, Cooks, Gronk-led attack.  Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, and Brett Hundley threw a combined 7 TD passes with just 1 INT the last 3 weeks against the Steelers' defense. Meanwhile, I expect a return to form by the Patriots' bend-don't-break defense that Matt Patricia has directed so well. New England enters on a 7-0 ATS run when facing a good passing offense, those that average at least 260 yards passing per game.  And under Belichick, New England is 6-0 ATS off a SU divisional loss as a favorite of 6 or more.  I'm backing the New England Patriots on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday.  We played against both of these teams last week and cashed both tickets.  Minnesota was in a tough spot at Carolina, which wasn't limited to, but included their third straight road game.  Meanwhile, the Bengals were banged-up off the extremely physical and emotional loss to Pittsburgh.  Cincy has dropped two in a row SU and they've covered eight of their last nine in this spot (after losing at least two straight SU).  The Bengals are normally undervalued on the road and they've fared well ATS in 61 tries under Marvin Lewis.  Recently,  the Bengals have gone 5-1 ATS off a double digit home loss and they have covered four in a row on the road against teams with a winning home record...once again, undervalued. We're getting a couple points extra from last week's look-ahead lines, thanks to Cincy's horrible outing against Minnesota.  We also note that Cincy's injuries on defense have been baked into this number.  I'm grabbing the points with the Bengals on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

We're laying the points with UNLV on Saturday night.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Fresno State on Saturday.  Fresno State has won seven in a row since coach Rodney Terry made a subtle lineup change early in the season by inserting Sam Biitner into the starting lineup and the Bulldogs are shooting 50.6 percent overall and 40.6 percent from 3-point distance.  Biitner is 19 of 30 from beyond the arc for a .633 percentage.  Oregon won last year's meeting at home 75-63, but the Ducks return only one starter from that squad while Fresno State returns five of the eight players that were in that game. Oregon has losses to Boise State, Oklahoma and Connecticut and its difficult to find a win over a quality opponent unless you want to count Ball State, which beat Notre Dame.  Fresno has covered 19 of its last 26 home games and 35 of its last 51 overall.  The Ducks are 1-6 ATS their last seven games and 0-4 ATS following a win.  The Bulldogs are 23-6 ATS after a win dating to last season.  I'm laying the points with Fresno State, our Saturday Shocker. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Bears on Saturday night.  Chicago has made "hanging around" an art form.  Six of their nine losses came by one score. And last week, they not only caught Cincinnati in a tough situation, but followed through with an outstanding performance on both sides of the line of scrimmage.  We believe the success on the ground, which opened things up for Mitchell Trubisky will carry over into the game against the Lions.  Detroit has played poorly against both the run and the pass and it's added up to the 27th ranked defense in total yards allowed per game.  At the same time, the Lions have zero semblance of a ground game (dead last in the NFL) and QB Matthew Stafford has been under constant pressure because of it.  The Bears' defense is playing well, ranked in the top half of the NFL against the run and in the top 10 defending the pass.  The first meeting was decided by 3 points with Detroit winning 27-24 on a 52-yard Matt Prater FG with 95 seconds left in regulation.  Chicago ran for 222 yards on 30 carries, while holding the Lions to 65 yards rushing.  Chicago is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  And John Fox-coached teams have been terrific on the road following an outright win as a road underdog, posting an 11-2 ATS mark, while outscoring those 13 opponents by an average of 23-20.  I'm grabbing the points with the Bears on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Western Kentucky in Saturday's Cure Bowl in Orlando.  The Hilltoppers have climbed a bit as the chalk in this one and we believe rightly so, (and not enough). Their offense isn't as lethal as last season's, but they're facing an opponent in Georgia State that's "just what the doctor ordered."  GSU played three bowl opponents this regular season, losing all three by an average of more than 33 ppg, while allowing a total of 121 points, or 40 ppg.  Offensively, the Panthers can't run the football whatsoever, ranked 117th in the nation in yards rushing per game.  It was so bad that their top RB, Glenn Smith averaged just 3.5 yards per carry on the season.  It's no wonder the Panthers averaged less than 20 ppg in 2017. Western Kentucky isn't going to set the world on fire with their running game, but QB Mike White is the real deal.  The senior signal caller is a 66% passer over the last two seasons, throwing for more than 8,000 yards with 61 TD passes and 14 INTs.  I'm betting he caps off his time at WKU with a win and cover. In fact, the senior class has a chance to close out their college careers with a 4-0 bowl record.  We believe they will accomplish the goal and do so by margin. I'm laying the points with Western Kentucky on Saturday afternoon.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Kentucky on Saturday afternoon.  Virginia Tech is 9-1 but this will be only its second true road game and the first one went to overtime at Mississippi where it won 83-80.  The Hokies are the top shooting team in the country, however, Kentucky is one of the top defensive teams and holding opponents to 30.2 percent from 3-point range.  The Wildcats have six players at least 6-foot-9 compared to one for Virginia Tech, which has only faced three opponents that are above .500.  Kentucky's only loss was to Kansas early in the season, which is understandable for a team starting five freshmen.  The Wildcats are shooting 50.6 percent and allowing only 38.1 percent and come off a 93-76 win over Monmouth, which shot only 26 of 70. Hamidou Diallo scored a team-leading 23 points and P.J. Washington added 20 points and six rebounds against the Hawks and the Wildcats shot 53.4 percent from the field.  Kentucky is on a 16-6 ATS run at home against teams with a winning record and they're on a 4-0-1 ATS run against teams playing better than .600 basketball.  I'm laying the points with Kentucky, our Daytime Dominator on Saturday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with UC Davis on Friday night.  UC Davis was expected to regress after winning the Big West Tournament championship game in March because it lost four starters, but the Aggies haven't missed a beat under coach Jim Les largely due to the one returnee, Chima Moneke, who leads the team with a 20.7 scoring average and 10.9 rebounds per game.  UC Davis is 7-2 and 5-0-2 ATS this season and 11-2-3 ATS dating to last season.  The Aggies are shooting 47.2 percent compared to 37.7 percent for San Francisco and the Aggies are holding opponents to a .398 field goal percentage.  The Dons are 9-30-1 ATS their last 40 games against Big West schools and 1-4 ATS in their five lined games this season.  San Francisco likes to shoot threes, however, their shooting percentage beyond the arc is just 29.9 percent.  The Aggies have covered the number five road games in a row.  I'm taking the points with UC Davis on Friday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the 76ers on Friday night. OKC has won a few games of late, but Carmelo still bogs down the offense, shooting a career low percentage this season.  Magnifying the issue is the fact he still takes too many shots.  OKC will miss Andre Roberson (ankle) and his 26 minutes per game in this one, making the Thunder a little more vulnerable on the defensive end to Ben Simmons and the Sixer backcourt.  Philly will have Robert Covington back on the floor tonight.  He and the Sixers are well rested, not having played since the OT win at Minnesota on Tuesday and they enter this one on an 8-1 ATS run when playing with two days off between games. Time off plus no game until Monday should keep Philadelphia completely focused.  It also means we'll also see normal minutes from Joel Embiid.  The Thunder have covered just one of their last 10 games, overall, and they're on a 0-6 ATS slide off a SU win. Philadelphia has been a bankroll builder when facing Western Conference opposition, posting a 42-16-1 ATS run, including 10-4-1 ATS this season.  Big night in Philly!  The team will be pumped for this one and we believe they'll take care of business. I'm laying the points with the 76ers on Friday night.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Western Kentucky on Wednesday.  This is definitely a down year for Wisconsin, which is 4-7 straight up and 3-6-1 ATS and two key players already are lost for the season with injuries to guards D'Mitrik Trice and Kobe King. The Badgers already have lost to Ohio State by 25 points and Virginia 49-37 while shooting 31.3 percent.  The Badgers come off an 82-63 loss to Marquette on Saturday when the defense was almost non-existent as the Golden Eagles shot 52.7 percent overall and made 14 of 22 from 3-point range. Coach Rick Stansbury has quickly put together a talented squad at Western Kentucky that has a .492 field goal percentage and won six of its last eight games and covering the number five of the last six. Wisconsin is just 2-7 ATS its last nine games against C-USA teams and that was when the Badgers had good teams and Wisconsin is just 1-4 ATS its last five home contests.  We're grabbing the points with Western Kentucky, our DogPound release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Texas on Tuesday.  Texas has one of the most improved teams in the country and its only two losses were in overtime against Duke and Gonzaga.  The Longhorns also remember a tough, 53-50 loss to the Wolverines last season and Michigan has lost both true road games this season against North Carolina and Ohio State. Michigan also lost to LSU in the Maui Tournament and was fortunate to beat UCLA in overtime on Saturday, but U-M has covered just 5 of their last 20 off a home win.  Shaka Smart recruited a top-five class and his team comes off a 71-67 win at Virginia Commonwealth, his former school, last Tuesday giving the Longhorns a week to prepare for this matchup.  Texas is allowing just a .378 shooting percentage while shooting 47.1 percent on the offensive end.  Andrew Jones scored 19 points against VCU and Mo Bamba, another highly-touted recruit, added 13 points and grabbed 13 rebounds and the Longhorns shot 51.0 percent from the field.  Texas is 9-4 ATS its last 13 games against Big Ten schools.  We'll lay it with Texas, our TKO release. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Colorado on Tuesday.  Colorado comes off a loss at Xavier in what was a revenge game for the Musketeers.  Colorado is back home where it is 4-0 SU this season and 13-5 ATS in the month of December under Tad Boyle. And San Diego doesn't figure to shoot the lights out as Xavier did shooting 60.3 percent on Saturday.  The Toreros shot only 40.7 percent last season and are shooting 44.2 percent this year and Colorado is allowing just a .363 field goal percentage at home.  Tad Boyle has a young but very talented squad that is led by senior guard George King, who averages 14.4 points and 8.8 rebounds per game and freshman McKinley Wright IV, who leads the team with a 15.7 scoring average and 38 assists.  San Diego has losses to San Diego State and at UC Santa Barbara and it is averaging only 68.1 points after finishing #321 in the country last year with 65.3 points per contest.  The Buffaloes usually bounce back after a big loss as they are 7-3-1 ATS their last 11 after losing by at least 20 points and they are 4-1 ATS their last five games against West Coast Conference schools.  I'm laying the points with Colorado, our Slam Dunk on Tuesday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday night.  Memphis has the fortune of playing their second straight game against a team playing their first game back in the states after spending time in the high altitude of Mexico City. The Grizzlies covered the first in a 102-101 OT loss to OKC as a 4 1/2 point underdog.  It's been a struggle for Memphis, thanks in big part to the loss of Mike Conley, but they still play hard on the defensive end and it looks as though they won't face Hassan Whiteside tonight.  Miami's second leading scorer and top rebounder is still listed as "out indefinitely," nursing an injured knee.  Memphis has covered five of the last six meetings at home and we'll back them here.  I'm backing Memphis, our Monday Slam Dunk. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday.  We went against Philly in week-13 and cashed when the Seahawks won 24-10. Philadelphia actually out-gained Seattle, 425 to 310, but one of the problems was a minus-2 turnover rate. And even worse for Philly, one of the turnovers was a Carson Wentz fumble at the Seattle 1-yard line, resulting in a touchback.  Philly was in a tough spot last week, but it's the Rams who're in the tough situation in week-14.  The Rams are off wins over New Orleans and on the divisional over Arizona.  Next up is a road date with division rival Seattle.  While the Rams would no doubt like to beat Philly in a quest for the best record in the NFC by the end of the season, beating Seattle next week is more important.  Most importantly for us, the Eagles own the NFL's second best ground game on offense and they're the stingiest in the league defending the run.  The Rams biggest weakness is their run defense, which ranks 27th in the league in yards allowed per game, while they're middle of the pack on the ground on offense.  The Eagles enter on an 8-1 ATS run  Finally, let's not fail to note that there has been a five point adjustment from last week's Westgate Super Book look-ahead line where the Eagles were posted as a 2 1/2 point favorite.  In fact, they opened a 2 1/2 point favorite in a few books this past Sunday before the Rams became the chalk. TE Zach Ertz is listed as questionable, but we like Philly in this spot whether he plays or not.  I'm grabbing the points with the Eagles, our Hammer release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday.  Seattle won a key game last week when they beat Philadelphia at home.  But the win and the score were a bit misleading. Seattle was out-gained 425-310.  Also, the Seahawks benefited from a Carson Wentz fumble at the Seattle 1-yard line ending in a touchback and Seattle's ball, rather than a Philly touchdown.  The Seahawk offense has been all Russell Wilson virtually all season.  The offensive line leaves a lot to be desired, thanks in part to injuries, leading to the lack of a ground game outside of their MVP-type QB. Meanwhile, the passing game, without big playmakers, will face the stingiest pass defense in the NFL.  No one runs the football like the Jags this season and while he still doesn't light-up pass defenses, QB Blake Bortles has been taking care of the football in the passing game with 12 TD passes and 6 INTs since week-3.  We note that road teams with a winning record have covered just 15 of the last 54 if they are off a SU win as a home dog and are playing a team with a winning record.  We'll look for Jacksonville to extend their mini-run to 5-1 ATS against teams with a winning record.  I'm backing the Jaguars, our Beatdown on Sunday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Kansas on Sunday.  Arizona State is 8-0 but will be playing its first true road game with one day of rest after playing St. John's on Friday night in Los Angeles.  What's more, the Sun Devils catch Kansas off an upset loss to Washington and the Jayhawks are 4-0-1 ATS their last five games following a loss dating to last season and coach Bill Self is 44-1 straight up at home after a loss since he became coach at Kansas.  Both teams are shooting better than 52 percent, but the Jayhawks are allowing just a .370 field goal percentage and only .348 at home.  Lagerald Vick scored a team-leading 28 points against the Huskies, but his team had an off-shooting night making just 5 of 20 from 3-point range. Arizona State beat the Red Storm at the foul line making 23 of 27 compared to 13 of 22 for St. John's.  The Sun Devils don't figure to have that kind of advantage at Allen Fieldhouse and Self has concentrated on getting his players to play with a tougher attitude after the Washington loss.  Arizona State has covered just 2 of 11 games as a double digit underdog under Bobby Hurley, losing by an average margin of 22 ppg. We'll lay the points with Kansas, our Sunday Knockout.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Chicago Bears on Sunday.  Chicago's offense looked pretty bad last weekend, but the defense has played well and they're catching the Bengals at the perfect time.  Cincinnati is not only off their toughest game of the season, both emotionally and physically, but they lost that game and will be short-handed today.  They took a hit at RB, but equally important, the defense took on serious water.  The secondary is in shambles, losing multiple players, including Adam Jones who was put on the IR after the game.  The leader of the defense, Vontaze Burfict is out this week, part of an injury issue at LB. Cincinnati's stop unit, already 28th in the NFL against the run, should see a steady dose of the best thing going for the Bears, RB Jordan Howard, who is just 115 yards from a 1,000 yards season, and gains over 4 yards per pop.  The ground game should give needed help to the passing game, while the defense is top half in the league against the run, the pass, and in total yards per game.  And let's not fail to mention the Cincinnati offense is ranked 25th to 31st in just about every important category.  As far as the techs are concerned, NFL home teams are 11-34 ATS if they have a .400-.490 record and have covered at least three straight games, provided they're playing a team with a losing record.  These home teams tend to get a public bounce due to covering recent games.  Those same home teams are on a 0-8 ATS slide whether they're facing losing or winning teams.  I'm backing the Bears plus the points, our Top Shocker on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the 49ers plus the points on Sunday.  We took two big SFO positives from last week's 15-14 win at Chicago: 1) Jimmy Garoppolo already has full understanding of the plays being called. 2) The Niner defense can certainly handle mediocre offenses.  SFO has won two of their last three games and have lost five games by three points or less (two losses in OT).  They're just 13 points away from a possible 7-5 SU mark.  The Niners came that close and did so without a true starting QB...but now they have one - in fact a very good one that Bill Belichick didn't want to lose. Houston has been hit by the injury bug as bad as anyone in the league.  The offense isn't good and is led by a backup QB.  The Texans have dropped five of six games SU, scoring an average of 12.5 ppg in their last four losses.  So, we have two teams with a combined record of 6-18 SU, but they're definitely headed in opposite directions.  SFO enters on a 5-2 ATS run on the road overall, and they're 4-1 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a losing home record.  Houston is 4-7 SU & 3-7 ATS with Tom Savage at QB, including 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS this season.  I'm grabbing the points with the 49ers, our KO on Sunday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Panthers on Sunday.  We understand how well Minnesota has performed under HC Mike Zimmer, but this is an ultra tough spot for the Vikings.  Minnesota will be playing their third straight road game and fourth roadie in their last five games.  They're also running into a stingy defense looking to bounce back after a shaky performance last week in New Orleans.  The Panthers don't match up well with the Saints.  In fact, take away their two games against New Orleans and the Panthers are 8-2 SU in their other 10.  Carolina's defense is ranked in the top four in just about every important category, while Minnesota's offensive line is a bit banged-up for this contest.  The Viking defense has been stingy, themselves, but this is the type of defense we feel Cam Newton can find success against.  The only time Minnesota faced a true mobile QB was in their 23-10 win over Green Bay. However, Aaron Rodgers was knocked out of the game in the opening quarter and Brett Hundley wasn't ready for the call.  Greg Olsen and Jonathan Stewart have both received the thumbs-up to play this week and that's the final keys in this play. Carolina has covered five of six off a SU loss.  They have been focused off divisional games, going 11-3 ATS in this spot the last three seasons, and they're 18-3 ATS off a road loss under HC Ron Rivera with an average win margin of nearly 10 ppg.  We're grabbing the points with the Panthers on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with West Virginia on Saturday night.  The Mountaineers are at it again, driving opposing ball handlers crazy and forcing 20 turnovers per contest.  This is bad news for a Pitt Panther squad that's upside down in the assists/turnovers category on their home floor.  Pitt averages 15.6 turnovers per game at Peterson Events Center and they committed another 16 turnovers in their most recent home court win, an 82-78 OT struggle against out-manned Mount St. Mary's.  The Panthers relied on freshmen to score 55 of their 82 points.  Pitt's wins have come against opponents who're a few levels below West Virginia.  The Mountaineers just knocked-off Virginia in their most recent game, but have had a few days to move on and focus on a young Pitt team.  We believe the Panthers underclassmen won't be ready for the heat they'll face for 90 feet tonight.  Bob Huggins told his team the two game set with Virginia and Pittsburgh are of huge importance. The second half of the task at hand takes place tonight.  Pitt enters on a 22-46-1 ATS slide at home.  WVU crashes the glass for more than 40 rpg and Pitt is on a 0-6 ATS slide against teams that average at least 40 per contest.  We're laying the points with WVU on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Wichita State on Saturday afternoon.  We earmarked this one in our notes after watching Oklahoma State bust-up the Shockers on their home floor last season.  The Cowboys made over half their FGA, while the Shockers made just 36% of their own shots in a 93-76 loss as a 7-point favorite.  Oklahoma State returned just two starters from a season ago and while the record looks strong, the SOS has not been too difficult.  Oklahoma State's wins came against Pepperdine, Charlotte, Oral Roberts, Pittsburgh, Houston Baptist, Austin Peay, and Mississippi Valley State.  They've played one "step-up" game and lost 72-55 to Texas A&M as a 4 1/2 point underdog.  Oklahoma State doesn't shoot well, especially from the deep perimeter, despite facing a soft slate.  They have covered just one of five at home against teams with a winning road record.  Wichita State returned all five starters from last season, so this spot is not lost on anyone.  The Shockers have four players averaging between 14.6 ppg and 11.5 ppg. The backcourt duo of Landry Shamet and Conner Frankamp have combined for 57 assists and just 18 turnovers this season.  And the Shockers are on a 40-18 ATS run on the road against teams with a winning home record.  This is a spot HC Gregg Marshall will get the best from his squad in my opinion, and I'll back them.  I'm laying the points with Wichita State on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Wizards on Saturday.  Both teams are missing their star player, but Washington is in much better shape without their's.  The Clippers are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS since losing Blake Griffin to injury.  They weren't great on the defensive end beforehand, but are even worse without him, (and without Patrick Beverly), allowing those four opponents an average of 114.8 ppg on 50% shooting.  The Clippers are minus-21 in rebound margin without Griffin.  Washington still has its leading scorer in Bradley Beal and they've won four of their last six games, (5-1 ATS).  Finally, the Clippers are 0-5 ATS at home against teams with a winning road record.  Washington fits the bill.  I'm laying the points with the Wizards, our Slam Dunk. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Toronto Raptors on Friday night.  Memphis remains a mess without Mike Conley on the floor and a coaching change won't matter much until he's able to return. The Grizzlies have dropped 12 of their last 13 SU (2-10-1 ATS).  Marc Gasol is expected to play, but he's nowhere near 100% healthy, nursing a sore foot. Toronto has had a couple days off to ready themselves for the road trip beginning tonight.  They've won eight of their last 10 games, averaging 115 ppg along the way.  The Raptors are the second most accurate FG shooting team in the NBA, while ranked 7th stingiest on the defensive end.  That's a tall task for one of the worst offensive teams in the league.  Toronto is on a 5-0 ATS run on the road against teams with a losing home record, while the Grizzlies enter on a 1-8 ATS slide at home and covering just 5 of their last 21 games, overall. We'll lay the fair price with the Raptors on Friday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Cavaliers on Friday night.  Not only are the Cavs playing a much better brand of basketball than when these teams met on November 1, but they also have revenge on their mind.  Indiana used a 62-46 second half to beat Cleveland 124-107 that particular night.  The Pacers nailed 16 of 26 3-pointers, the equivalent of making 24 of 26 2-point shots, while Cleveland made just 7 of 31 treys, themselves.  Indiana has played well themselves, but had to come from 16 down in the fourth quarter to beat Chicago last time out.  The Cavs have not been good ATS as chalk this season, overall, however, they're on a 6-0 ATS run when laying 4 or less, or as a dog. The road team in this series has covered six in a row and NBA teams are 46-20 ATS if they are in revenge of a SU loss as home chalk, provided their opponent is off a SU win / non-cover, when laying points.  I'm laying the points with the Cavaliers on Friday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the New Orleans Saints on Thursday night.  Falcons' offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian continues to get out-witted by opposing defensive coordinators.  We saw it again this past Sunday when Atlanta's attack did nothing but sputter against the Vikings in a 14-9 Falcon loss.  Atlanta has now lost home games to Buffalo, Miami, and Minnesota, while scoring a grand total of 43 combined points.  Offensively, teams have found they can run against the Falcons and New Orleans is 3rd in the NFL in yards rushing per game.  The fact the Saints have balanced out the offense this season has made Drew Brees even more effective and it's one of the top reasons why this squad heads into week-14 with a 9-3 SU mark.  Another factor is a much improved defense that has allowed just 66 points, or 13 ppg in their last five road games.  The Saints are on a 13-3 ATS road run and they're 8-1 ATS on the road against teams with a winning home record.  They're also 13-3 ATS against weak pass defenses, those that allow a completion rate of 61% or higher (Atlanta's defense fits that dubious distinction).  We also note the road teams has covered four of the last five meetings.  I'm backing the Saints on Thursday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Kansas on Wednesday night.  This game is technically being played at a neutral site, the Sprint Center in KC, but the crowd will be pro-Jayhawk.  Washington owns a 6-2 SU record, but it's a bit misleading.  They turn the ball over quite a bit and Kansas should feed off of Huskies' mistakes.  The top four scorers for UW have a combined 74 assists and 78 turnovers in eight games. The Huskies are horrible from the deep perimeter, and it's not likely they'll get inside too often tonight.  Kansas, in comparison, is all about scorers and dishers.  In fact, Devonte' Graham and Legerald Vick have combined for 86 assists and just 31 turnovers in seven games.  As a team, KU averages 20 assists per game and just 11 turnovers per game, while UW is upside down on offense and allow nearly 19 assists per game.  Kansas is outstanding on the offensive and defensive ends of the floor and will face a team ranked 304th in FG percentage defense and 297th against the trey, while allowing 78 ppg. Washington wants to run and that plays right into the Jayhawks' strength.  UW enters on a 0-4 ATS slide, while KU has covered four in a row.  UW is 0-8 ATS since last season against teams that average at least 16 assists per game, allowing 91 ppg in those outings.  And finally, UW is 0-8 ATS against uptempo teams, those that attempt at least 62 shots per game.  I'm laying the points with Kansas on Wednesday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

Late addition: I'm playing Texas A&M on Tuesday.  Normal analysis returns with Wednesday's card. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm adding a late play on Utah plus the points.  Normal analysis returns with Wednesday's card. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Florida on Monday night.  Big step up in level of competition for Florida State after their youthful team had a case of easy street to begin the season.  The problem for the Seminoles is that the young squad is going to feel confident to play uptempo basketball against a team that's better at it than anyone else and has already played at a much higher level of basketball.  Florida beat Gonzaga 111-105 and came within a 3-pointer of upsetting Duke before losing 87-84.  The Gators are loaded and they're the highest scoring team in CBB, averaging 99.5 ppg on 48.8% shooting, including 46% from behind the arc.  Jalen Hudson (21.7 ppg) leads four players averaging more than 13 ppg.  KeVaughn Allen, Chris Chiozza, and Egor Koulechov have combined for 74 assists and just 22 turnovers.  Florida coach Mike White has led the Gators to a 36-18 ATS mark, including 9-2-1 ATS in non-conference action.  Florida will aim to snap a 3-game head-to-head losing streak and we believe they'll get it by a spread covering margin.  I'm laying the points with Florida on Monday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Seattle Seahawks plus the points on Sunday night.  Pete Carroll's troops have taken care of business when installed as a home dog, going 12-4 ATS.  Seattle blew one against Atlanta, falling by a FG after choosing to run a fake FG late in the first half.  The failed attempt turned out to be the difference in the game.  They bounced back with a win and cover last week over SFO and the defense played well.  They've now held three of their last four opponents to 13, 16, and 17 points.  Yes, the Philly offense is a step-up in level of competition and yes, Seattle is short-handed in the secondary, missing Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman.  But we got the info we wanted to hear when Shaquill Griffin and Earl Thomas were both upgraded to "expected to play."  I'm not going to beat-up the Eagles, but we must note that 9 of their 10 wins came against teams with a combined record of 35 wins and 67 losses.  They've played just two games against teams who currently own a winning record and split those contests, losing to Kansas City 27-20, while beating Carolina, 28-23.  They only out-gained the Panthers by 5 yards (310 to 305) and Carson Wentz completed a combined 41 of 76 passes in the two games, a rather weak, 53.9% completion rate. Along with the 12-4 ATS mark mentioned above, the Seahawks have been a bankroll building team in the all-important month of December, going 19-6-1 ATS.  I'm taking the points with Seattle on Sunday night.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Chicago Bears on Sunday.  There's been a lot of love this week for SFO since it was announced former Tom Brady back-up, Jimmy Garoppolo would start behind center.  So much so, that the line has dropped from as high as 5 1/2, down to as low as 3.  The Bears were no match for the red-hot Eagles last week, but while they're just 3-8 SU this season, they finished within one score of their opponent in five of their losses; they have been competitive most of the season.  The key to this game will be whether or not Chicago can form a ground game, which will lead to more time in the pocket when Mitch Trubisky goes up top.  The ground attack is actually 8th in the NFL in yards per game.  Yes, they were shut down by the Eagles, but SFO is not Philadelphia.  The Niners are 30th in the league, allowing 129 yards rushing per game.  They're 26th against the pass and 28th in total yards allowed.  Offensively, SFO can't run the football and the change at QB isn't going to help the ground game.  Besides, Chicago is top 16 on defense against both the run and pass.  The Bears are on a 9-2 ATS run in their last 11 home games and they're on a 7-0 ATS run off a road loss by 14 or more over the last three seasons.  John Fox-coached teams are 12-3 ATS following a game where they scored less than seven points.  Chicago beat SFO 26-6 at home almost one year ago to the day (Dec. 4), and we expect another win and cover here.  I'm laying the points with the Bears, our Smackdown release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Cavaliers on Saturday.  Last night we had a coach who motivated his team to put an opponent away and Golden State cashed in a 133-112 win at Orlando.  Today we have the league's best player who brings the motivation, or chip on the shoulder mentality to the floor.  LeBron James was ticked off when he heard Memphis coach David Fizdale was fired, reportedly due in part to the fact he didn't see eye-to-eye with Marc Gasol. I expect James to have his team ready to start fast and finish up strong against a team he'd no doubt like to blowout. The Cavs have won 10 straight games and have averaged 115 ppg over their last 14 games.  The difference during the winning streak has been defense where the Cavs have allowed just 102 ppg, while the offensive has clicked as mentioned.  Memphis enters on a 10-game losing streak and the offense has hit the skids, averaging just 89 ppg over their last seven, including scoring just 79 points in a 16-point loss to the Spurs last night.  Memphis has covered just 3 of their last 17 games and they're on a 0-4 ATS slide when playing without rest.  Cleveland has covered 15 of the last 20 meetings.  This one comes down to how badly LeBron wants to beat Memphis.  We believe he'll exact a little revenge for his friend, David Fizdale.  I'm laying the points with the Cavaliers, our KO release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Marshall on Saturday.  The Thundering Herd want to run -- the understatement of the year. Marshall loves an uptempo pace and under John Groce, Akron will oblige.  That's bad news for the Zips who have a problem keeping a handle on the basketball, already turning the ball over 16 or more times in two of their four games.  The Zips have more turnovers than assists so far this season and don't shoot well.  Akron lost by double digits in their only road game this season, losing by 13 to Dayton.  They've allowed their last two opponents to make 53 of 100, or 53% of their FGA, and rank 293rd in defensive FG percentage.  Marshall should take full advantage at home.  The Herd average over 90 ppg and make half their FGA.  Marshall has four players averaging between 25 and 13 ppg.  Jon Elmore not only leads the team in scoring but he and fellow guard Jarrod West are the top two playmakers on the floor and have combined for 82 assists and just 39 turnovers on the season.  Marshall is on an 18-6 ATS run at home against teams with a losing road record.  We'll lay the points with Marshall as they exact revenge for a loss last December.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with UL-Monroe on Saturday.  Florida State needs one more win for bowl eligibility and they're likely to get it here, but this pointspread is quite rich.  The Seminoles are off the big win over rival Florida.  They have a coaching staff not knowing if they’re coming or going.  And that's not good with a young team that's still a bit "wet behind the ears."  We should note that in the win over Florida, the Seminoles gained just 216 total yards and averaged under 3 yards per carry on the ground.  They’re routinely out-gained and rank 98th on the ground and 92nd through the air. UL-Monroe can move the football, averaging over 470 yards per game and they own the 19th best passing game (yards per contest) in college football.  QB Caleb Evans has 16 TD passes and just 6 INTs on the season.  He's averaged 11 yards per pass or more in 3 of his last 4 games.  And while UL-M is 6-2 ATS on the road, Fla State has covered just 1 of their last 6 at home.  We had UL-Monroe plus the points against Auburn and cashed the ticket and we'll back them again this week.  I'm taking the points with UL-Monroe, our High Noon Shocker! Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Warriors on Friday night.  Golden State hasn't been a point-spread covering machine this season, almost looking as though they're coasting, simply waiting for the postseason.  But they're off a couple shaky performances and Steve Kerr mentioned his team has played few complete games all season, even saying (and I'm paraphrasing) that his team is not stepping on any necks thus far.  I expect to see a spirited effort tonight. Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, David West, and Andre Iguodala are all expected to play, while Klay Thompson is questionable.  When these teams met in northern California a couple weeks ago, GSW won 110-100, failing to cover.  But they were up 104-84 with 4 minutes to go in the game, easily distancing themselves from the Magic, while playing the entire game without Curry.  Orlando finally snapped their losing streak against OKC, while making nearly 60% of their FGA.  They've covered just 6 of their last 22 off a SU win as an underdog, allowing 112 ppg (1-7 ATS when they pull off the underdog win at home). Kerr wants a complete game and I'm betting he gets it.  The Magic have covered just 14 of their last 42 against teams that make at least 36% of their 3-pointers, allowing 111 ppg in those 42 outings (two seasons).  And finally, they're 2-8 ATS against teams averaging at least 110 ppg.  It looks as though the Magic are catching GSW at the wrong time.  I'm laying the points with the Warriors on Friday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Southern Miss on Wednesday.  One again we have a side that's more than 2 points off our power ratings and the underdog has serious matchup advantages to boot.  Southern Miss goes five guards strong and two of those five, Tyree Griffin and Cortez Edwards make-up the best tandem on the floor tonight.  Not only does Griffin and Edwards average a combined 30.5 ppg, but they both shoot well and have dished out 50 assists with just 26 turnovers between the two of them.  They also force teams into mistakes and we feel South Alabama's backcourt will have trouble.  Guard Rodrick Sikes can score for the Jaguars, but he has a horrible 1-12, assist-turnover ratio so far this season.  In fact, those averaging double figures in minutes played for South Alabama have a combined 81 assists in seven games, while committing 110 turnovers.  The Jags employ a "first team to 60 wins" philosophy, so pulling away by margin would be difficult, even if they're on their "A-game."  We also note USA makes less than 42% of their FGA (284th in the nation).  And while the Jags have covered just five of their last 20 against Conf-USA teams, Southern Miss is on a 20-7-1 ATS run off an ATS loss and they're 6-0-1 off a double digit home loss.  I'm grabbing the points with Southern Miss on Wednesday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with OKC on Wednesday.  The Thunder are taking their sweet time to get the old and the new on the same page, but catch a break here. While OKC has dropped four of their last five, the schedule hasn't been easy. And they'll face an Orlando squad that's dropped nine in a row (2-7 ATS).  The Magic have played little defense of late and tried Jonathan Simmons in the starting five last time out, but to no avail.  Orlando has allowed over 117 ppg during the skid and rank 23rd in the league in defensive efficiency this season, while OKC owns the second best defensive efficiency marks and allow just 98 ppg, the second stingiest number in the league.  The Thunder's troubles have come on the offensive end, but as we stated, the Magic should be, "just what the doctor ordered."  The Thunder enter on an 11-3 ATS run against Eastern Conference teams and they're on a 20-6 ATS run against teams playing between .250 & .400 basketball.  Final note:  Paul George has been upgraded to probable for the Thunder, but this is a play whether he is available or not.  I'm laying the points with the Thunder, our Mismatch on Wednesday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing UTSA plus the points on Tuesday.  Our power ratings say that Tulsa is priced more than a bucket higher than they should be.  UTSA loves to get up and down the floor and the Golden Hurricane don't play a lot of defense.  The Roadrunners also like to force turnovers and Tulsa can be had by a quick, in your shirt, style of play. UTSA has six players averaging between 15 ppg and 8 ppg and Giovanni De Nicolao should be the best "disher" on the floor.  Sterling Taplin is a decent PG for Tulsa, however, every other player averaging at least 20 minutes per game has poor assist/turnover ratios...something we look to at this point of the season and beyond.  Tulsa has been overvalued quite often and the spread record shows, currently on a 1-7 ATS slide against teams with a winning record.  We feel they're overvalued once again and we'll grab the points with UTSA on Tuesday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Rams on Sunday.  Tough outing for L.A. last week as they had their problems mounting their typical ground game.  But a couple of mistakes and miscues turned a 7-7 4th quarter tie into a 24-7 loss in Minnesota.  Having said that, the ground game and passing game have been strong all season, both ranked 9th in the NFL and New Orleans, in all due credit, have taken on more than their share of softies.  Before last week's comeback win over Washington, the Saints had beaten the Packers without Aaron Rodgers, the Bears, the Buccs, and the Bills in recent games.  The best record of the bunch is 5-5 (Green Bay is 1-3 without Rodgers).  Last week, against a decent offense, the Saints defense allowed 31 points on 456 yards.  Samaje Perine ran for 117 yards and Kirk Cousins had a fantastic game.  I do believe the Saints' defense can be had by a balanced attack and the Rams are certainly that.  Red hot NFL teams don't stay that way for too long and eight game winning streaks are obviously quite rare.  And under Sean Payton, the Saints have covered JUST 3 of 14 after scoring 25 or more in three straight games. The Rams have covered four of their last five games and the home team is on a 5-0 ATS run in the series.  I'm laying the points with the Rams on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Buffalo Bills on Sunday.  Tyrod Taylor is back behind center after a one week failed test by Nathan Peterman.  Taylor and company are getting too many points against an overvalued KC Chiefs' team. Since their 5-0 start, (when they caught every break in the book), the Chiefs have dropped four of five.  Defense, or lack thereof, has been the main culprit. The Chiefs enter the weekend ranked 28th in the NFL in yards per play allowed and they've given up over 4.5 yards per carry on the ground.  I suspect LeSean McCoy is champing at the bit.  WR Kelvin Benjamin (knee) may miss this week's game, but we like the rest of the receiving corps against the vulnerable Chiefs' defense and we're quite pleased to see TE Charles Clay has been upgraded and is expected to start.  As far as the techs are concerned, road teams are 12-2 ATS if they're off at least three straight losses.  And you're 52-24 ATS playing against home favorites off a road loss, provided they're playing an opponent off a road loss by at least 21 points.  I'm taking the points with the Buffalo Bills on Sunday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Texas A&M on Saturday.  Rumors abound regarding whether or not Kevin Sumlin's job is safe at College Station.  But he's a popular coach and we expect an all-out effort from Aggie players.  Outside of the collapse against UCLA in the season opener, A&M's losses have come against extremely talented teams, including Alabama and Auburn, along with a good Mississippi State squad.  LSU and Ed Orgeron have done a tremendous job righting the ship after the loss to Troy, but they're simply laying too many points according to our power ratings. LSU was out-gained last week in the win over Tennessee, but the biggest issue for A&M will be forcing QB Danny Etling to throw some passes.  Etling has thrown just 15 and 16 passes in his last two games, both LSU wins.  I think we'll see a concerted effort to slow the Tiger ground game and force Etling to make key decisions and passes.  Offensively for A&M, I like the fact Nick Starkel is getting more time behind center, tossing 5 TD passes and just 1 INT in his last couple games.  Starkel makes the offense more diverse and tougher to defend.  The Aggies have covered 4 straight road games and they're undervalued here.  I'm taking the points with Texas A&M on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Minnesota on Saturday.  Gophers' HC P.J. Fleck signed an extension and his team still has a shot at bowl eligibility with a win on Saturday.  There's no denying the Gophers were absent between the ears in last week's ugly loss to Northwestern. We expect a refocused effort in their final home game and that 39-0 loss gives us even more value on the home dog. Wisconsin has been good enough to win all 11 games this season and they'll have the pressure of knowing winning-out means a playoff invite in all likelihood.  They'll have to grind this one out and hope Minnesota makes mistakes because the Badger passing game is unreliable.  QB Alex Hornibrook struggled again last week, completing just 9 of 19 passes with 1 TD and 1 INT. The Badger signal caller now has more INTs (12) than TD passes (11) over his last eight games.  Minnesota's defense ranks 27th in total yards allowed per game and we expect them to give Wisconsin some trouble.  The Gophers run the football well, themselves, and this one promises to be a slug-fest in our opinion.  Minnesota is on an 8-2 ATS run off a game where they failed to reach 20 points, which is the case here.  They're on a 7-0 ATS run off a double-digit conference loss, and P.J. Fleck-coached teams are 8-3 ATS against teams that win by an average margin of at least 17 ppg, while the Gophers are on a recent and current 3-0 ATS run in those games.  Value lies with the home dog.  I'm grabbing the points with Minnesota.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

We're backing Georgia Southern plus the couple of points on Saturday.  Both teams return all five starters from last season, and while Bradley has played a decent brand of basketball so far this season, Georgia Southern owns a true road win over Wake Forest.  Both teams are 5-1, but the Braves have come close to a couple more defeats, escaping against Weber State and UTSA.  Their biggest issue was exposed against both teams and also in their loss to Vermont.  Bradley committed 15, 20, and 19 turnovers in those three games, respectively.  Georgia Southern can get after ball-handlers on the defensive end. Offensively, the Eagles have five players averaging between 17 ppg and 9.7 ppg, and Tookie Brown is a serious disher.  GSU enters on a 3-0-1 ATS run on the road and they're 15-7 ATS in their last 22 against teams with a winning record.  We're grabbing the couple of points with Georgia Southern on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Texas Longhorns on Friday night.  Texas and Texas Tech are programs truly headed in opposite directions.  It took a little time for Tom Herman to get things rolling in his first season in Austin, but we're starting to see why he was such a hot coaching prospect.  Texas enters just 6-5 SU, but they are two OT losses and a total of 11 points away from a 9-1 SU run.  Dual threat QB Sam Ehlinger will face a Tech defense that ranks 124th against the pass and 107th, overall.  Tech allows over 30 ppg on the season and the offense has disappeared when the level of competition has picked up.  Texas Tech scored a total of just 43 points in losses to Iowa State, Oklahoma, and TCU, over the last five weeks.  The Red Raiders struggle on the ground, which puts more pressure on the passing game and that's simply not getting it done.  We doubt they'll get any semblance of a ground game going against the Longhorns' excellent run defense, which means the Raider offense struggles.  As mentioned above, the programs are in different spots right now with Texas Tech losing five of their last six both SU & ATS with the losses coming by an average margin of more than 16 ppg.  Texas enters on a 7-2-1 ATS run, overall, and they have covered six of the last seven in this series.  I'm laying the points with Texas, our KO release on Friday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with San Diego State on Friday afternoon.  We went against New Mexico last week and cashed with UNLV, a late and fortunate cover. The Lobos did not play well, but came with a huge effort in their senior day game and saw victory stolen from their clutches in the final minute.  UNLV won the game despite not playing well and struggling with defensive play-calling. The Lobos were crushed as they walked off the field.  UNM has now dropped six straight games and lost the previous five by an average score of 37-10.  The passing game is atrocious.  Led by QB Lamar Jordan (although he hasn't been the lone offender), the Lobos have completed 29 of 68 passes (43%) the last six games, averaging 28 yards per game and 2.47 yards per attempt, with no TD passes and 7 INTs.  SDSU lost to Fresno a few weeks ago, which keeps them from a berth in the MWC title game, but they can get their 10th win of the season this week.  HC Rocky Long and staff will have no trouble prepping for the option, especially since UNM has no passing game to worry about as mentioned above.  The Lobos allowed UNLV 534 yards of offense, including 363 yards rushing on 7 yards per attempt.  The defense is done. SDSU and their 14th ranked ground game should run at will, while the Aztec defense, ranked 11th against the run and 13th overall, will slam the door.  SDSU is on a 35-15-1 ATS conference run, including 19-6-1 ATS against teams with a losing record.  And along with their 0-4 ATS slide, UNM has covered just 8 of their last 31 after allowing at least 450 yards.  They don't bounce back well. San Diego State minus the points on Friday, our Afternoon Annihilator!  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Atlanta Hawks on Tuesday night.  A lot of people might bypass this game with two teams not in the greatest form.  But the wrong team is favored in our opinion and we'll look to take advantage.  The Clippers are an absolute mess in the backcourt and at least Atlanta is showing signs of hard play and getting back in the win column.  Clipper guards are not only struggling on the offensive end but they're giving up a lot of easy looks on defense, allowing 111.6 ppg during the losing streak.  They're also playing their fourth road game in six nights. Atlanta has dropped six of their last eight, but they took red-hot Boston to the brink twice, beat the Cavaliers outright, came within a point of beating New Orleans on the road and were tied in Detroit with a minute to go.  So yes, the Hawks haven't been landing in the win column, but they're playing the better brand of basketball, are the healthier team, and are playing at home against a potentially road weary team. The Hawks are on a 5-1 ATS run at home against teams with a losing record, while the Clippers have covered just one of their last nine games.  LAC is also 7-19 ATS in their last 26 on the road against teams with a losing home record. They're overvalued once again.  I'm grabbing the points with the Hawks on Wednesday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Fresno State in Tuesday's late game in the Cancun Challenge.  Evansville is out of the gate with a 4-0 SU start, but the schedule has not been difficult and this marks a step-up in level of competition.  We didn't like the look of the Aces in their 66-61 win over Binghamton.  Evansville has a scorer in Ryan Taylor and a disher in Dru Smith, but little else when the competition gets tougher.  We like the program Rodney Terry has built in Fresno.  Even with the loss of a couple of studs, the Bulldogs are still poised to win 20 games for the third straight season.  Terry has four players averaging between 17.7 and 13 ppg and six players averaging over 7 ppg.  Deshon Taylor, Jaron Hopkins, and Ray Bowles, Jr., can all handle the rock and have combined for 31 assists and just 14 turnovers in three games.  At 6'6, Hopkins is a tough matchup for opposing guards, crashing the boards for more than 8 rpg, while scoring over 13 ppg.  Fresno enters on a 23-7 ATS run against teams with a winning record and they're on an 8-1 ATS run in non-conference tilts.  We'll back them here.  We're laying the points with Fresno State on Tuesday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the big points with Ball State on Tuesday night.  Both teams are wrapping up disappointing seasons, but BSU will be attempting to stave off a winless conference season.  There will be motivation for the Cardinals, while Miami may have given it their all last week in a tough 27-24 home finale loss to Eastern Michigan (we covered with EMU).  They're certainly a team I don't trust with this big of a point-spread. Miami RB's Kenny Young and Alonzo Smith are both questionable.  One or both may play, but both are far from 100% healthy and the next best runner is QB Gus Ragland who averages just 1.8 yards per carry.  No one else on the team has more than 12 carries on the season.  Speaking of Ragland, he's connecting on just 56% of his passes and we don't believe he'll be able to extend a lead by the margin Miami would need to cover the number. Miami has covered just one of eight as a favorite this season and lost five of those games, outright, while Ball State covered two of three this season as a dog of 10 to 20 points.  Last year's meeting went right to the wire with Miami scoring a TD in the final six minutes to win, 21-20.  The underdog Cardinals covered the spread and we expect them to do so again tonight, which would run the underdog streak in this series to 6-1 ATS.  I'm grabbing the points with Ball State on Tuesday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with UCSB on Monday night.  UCSB brings back four starters from last year's squad along with senior PG Gabe Vincent. The Gauchos struggled with their shot last season, but under first year coach Joe Pasternack, they took to an uptempo attack. After a season opening blowout win over North Dakota State, easily covering a 2-point spread, the Gauchos lost at Pitt and to Texas A&M.  They were outclassed against the Aggies, but the 70-62 loss to Pitt is a misleading final score.  UCSB and Pitt were in a 62-60 game with less than 30-seconds left in the contest before the Panthers were able to win by eight.  UCSB out-rebounded Pitt and finished with only 7 turnovers, but made just 10 of 22 FTA's.  Make their normal percentage at the charity stripe (over 71% each of their other two games) and they would've covered the spread with a good shot to win the game outright.  While UCSB returns four starters along with PG Gabe Vincent, the Waves return just one starter and don't have a got-to guy on the offensive end.  Colbey Ross is the only player who can be counted on to consistently dish to an open teammate.  Pepperdine lost to Northern Colorado in their lone lined home game this season and enter tonight having covered just 10 of their last 36 games.  They're also 2-12 ATS against teams that make at least 8 3-pointers per game.  We'll back the high powered UCSB Gauchos on Monday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Seattle Seahawks on Monday night.  The Seahawks have had extra time to prepare for the Falcons, who are off a win over the Dallas Cowboys.  Atlanta couldn't have caught Dallas at a more opportune time. But the Falcons have had their issues, getting out-adjusted throughout the course of several games this season. We expect more of that in this one.  We also expect the Seattle defense to keep the ATL offense under control start to finish.  That's not quite as difficult as it was last season with Atlanta averaging under 22 ppg and scoring 17 or fewer points in four of their last six games. Seattle's a dominant 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 MNF appearances, while ATL has dropped five of their last six ATS, overall.  The Falcons have covered just five of their last 21 against teams that connect on at least 61% of their passes on the season.  We note that in 60 second half of the season games under Pete Carroll, Seattle has turned up the heat, averaging 26 ppg, while allowing just 17 ppg.  And finally, they're 19-7 ATS in weeks 10-13.  We're laying the points with the Seahawks on Monday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Marshall on Sunday.  These teams should be somewhat familiar with each other, facing common opposition and hanging around in the same early season circles.  The key to covering the double digit spread for us will be Marshall's ball-handling, which is much better than the Illini's thus far.  Marshall has turned the ball over 12, 11, and 11 times with plenty of "dishers" on the offensive end. Illinois' backcourt can be had, turning the ball over 18 times in each of their last two games.  We also note that the Thundering Herd forced their last two opponents to commit 20 and 21 turnovers. Jon Elmore is back for the Herd and leading the way averaging over 28 ppg with 23 assists in three games.  Ajdin Penava (9.3 rpg) and CJ Burks have combined for 36 ppg thus far.  And most importantly, the Herd own the value in this clash.  Marshall enters on a 12-4-1 ATS non-conference run and the high-flying Herd are 14-3 ATS after scoring at least 80 points in three straight games.  When they get the offense in gear under HC Dan D'Antoni, they don't normally let up.  We're grabbing the points with Marshall, our DogPound release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday.  Injuries had devastated the Green Bay Packers and I'm not just talking about losing Aaron Rodgers.  The offensive line seems to take new "hits" every week and will be down three starters in all likelihood.  QB Brett Hundley needs his "wheels" if he's ever going to show improvement as an NFL signal caller, but even he has an injury, nursing a hamstring, which could "hamstring" his mobility behind the banged-up o-line.  And while the Packers continue to lose bodies on both sides of the line of scrimmage, the Ravens are getting healthy.  HC John Harbaugh commented on the state of his team's health being the best it has been all season.  Baltimore is on a 40-28 ATS run under Harbaugh when the line is in the +3/-3 range.  They're 7-3 SU/ATS off a bye and a decent 18-11 ATS in the second half of the season against teams that allow at least 7 yards per pass attempt. We expect better things from the Ravens over the remaining weeks, especially as players return to the field.  I'm laying the points with the Ravens on Sunday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing Wake Forest on Saturday night.  Both teams are bowl eligible and every additional win means a bigger and better bowl invitation.  But we doubt NC State can slow the juggernaut that is the Wake Forest offense.  The Demon Deacons have kicked it into another gear.  Wake averaged 48 ppg in their most recent three games against Louisville, Notre Dame, and Syracuse.  Points scored weren't the only impressive stat.  Wake averaged 649 yards per game on 7.8 yards per play.  They ran for 258 yards per game on nearly 6 yards per carry, and the passing game has gone nuts the last three games, showing a 69% completion rate, an average of 391 yards passing per game on 9.8 yards per attempt with 10 TD passes and just 1 INT.  NC State has been involved in three tough games in a row, finally picking up a 17-14 win at Boston College after a pair of losses to Notre Dame and Clemson.  The pass defense can be had and as we noted above, Wake's passing game is on fire and QB Jim Wofford wouldn't mind exacting some revenge for last year's loss to the Pack.  The Demon Deacons enter on a 9-2-1 ATS run in ACC play.  They're on a 4-0-1 ATS run at home and have covered nine of the last 10 meetings in Winston-Salem.  I'm betting we'll see more of the same on Saturday.  I'm backing Wake Forest, our Main Event. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing Oakland on Saturday.  Normal analysis returns with Sunday's card.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Idaho Vandals on Saturday afternoon.  Vandal fans weren't too happy when they found out last year that this season would be the program's last at the FBS level. Players haven't been too pleased either, expressing their frustration.  But Idaho, a team involved in a lot of close calls this season, still has a chance to reach a bowl-eligible 6th win if they win out.  Idaho is 3-6 SU, but have three winnable games to close the season.  First things first.  The Vandals had last week off and will be fresh, while Coastal Carolina will be playing for the 10th straight week, while having to make the long journey to Moscow, Idaho.  This is a worn out and banged-up football team with three QBs on the injury list (two are out), that have dropped nine straight games after a season-opening win over UMass.  They've allowed 37 to 52 points in six of their last eight games and an average of 44.5 ppg in their last four road games.  The Chanticleers are 109th against the pass and 104th in total yards allowed per game, while the offense ranks 106th. Idaho QB Matt Linehan may not play this week (wrist), in fact, we doubt he'll suit-up, but Idaho, unlike Coastal Carolina, has a capable backup in Mason Petrino, who had last week off to get ready for this one.  Idaho has been "money," currently on a 13-3 ATS run, and they have covered 20 of their last 27 conference games.  It's their home finale at the FBS level and we believe the Vandals will make the most of it. I'm laying the points with Idaho, our Afternoon Annihilator.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Penn State on Saturday.  We are 6-1 ATS playing against Nebraska with our opinions and bets on the season.  We haven't shied away from playing against the Huskers when installed as a decent-sized dog (see Ohio State) because this isn't the program we grew up with...not even close.  Mike Riley is out at the end of the regular season and now the QB situation may even be worse than it was. Tanner Lee has been horrible most of the season, but Lee suffered a concussion (questionable) in last week's loss to Minnesota.  Frosh Patrick O'Brien would start behind center if Lee can't go and making your first collegiate start at Happy Valley is not an ideal situation. We do want to point out we're on PSU whether it's Lee or O'Brien.  The Huskers can't run (114th) and can't stop the run (108th). Saquon Barkley, Trace McSorley and company have to be champing at the bit to get after this defense. Husker defenders have not caught on to new DC Bob Diaco's 3-4 base.  Penn State is 14-0 SU at home since the start of last season and they're on a 9-1-1 ATS run in their last 11 home games. They've outscored this season's six visitors by an average of 44-8!  No visiting team has scored more than 14 points against PSU this season.  This is the final home game for Penn State and we believe they'll jump out early and keep their foot on the gas against a team led by a lame duck coach.  I'm laying the points with Penn State, our Saturday Knockout.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Baylor on Saturday.  This promises to be a difficult task for Iowa State as they attempt to "get up" for a game in Waco after blowing a shot to control their own fate for a possible Big-12 title game appearance.  The Cyclones led Oklahoma State by two TDs at one point of the game and led 42-34 with 6 minutes to go in the fourth quarter before falling 49-42.  ISU had the ball inside the Oklahoma State 3-yard line with 30-seconds to go in the game and a chance to tie, before QB Zeb Noland threw an INT in the endzone, turning the ball over and essentially ending ISU's chances to play for a conference title. Cyclone HC Matt Campbell called it, "...a devastating loss."  Baylor HC Matt Ruhle has certainly followed his promise of doing things his way.  The Bears virtually sacrificed a season to set Ruhle's plan in motion.  The offense is starting to come around scoring a combined 98 points in three of their last four games, including 36 in a 2-point loss to West Virginia and 38 in a 29-point win over Kansas.  Baylor gained an average of 492 yards on 6.1 yards per play in those games.  The passing game flourished, connecting on 68% of their pass attempts for an average of 374 yards per game on 8.44 yards per attempt.  We should also note, the Bears, (Charlie Brewer to be specific), fired 8 TD passes in those three outings with just 1 INT.  They'll face an ISU defense ranked 93rd against the pass. Baylor has covered six of the last seven home meetings and we'll back them here.  I'm taking the points with Baylor, our Saturday Shocker.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with UL-Monroe on Saturday.  We feature "sandwich spots" on our ESPN-Las Vegas radio show, but this one might be the "Dagwood" of them all.  Auburn is off the butt-kicking win over Georgia and has a date with Alabama in the Iron Bowl up next.  It won't be shocking if they do just enough to win by 24 points or so, while laying much more.  UL-Monroe is 4-5 SU on the season and are led by a capable QB in Caleb Evans who has 12 TD passes and just 3 INTs.  Evans is a 66% passer, averages about 9 yards per attempt, and he's a dual threat - just the kind of QB potentially flat defenses don't like to face.  UL-M runs for nearly 200 yards per game, ranks 27th in yards passing per game and 18th in total yards per game.  No, they aren't going to pull the outright upset of all upsets, but we'll take the three-dozen points or so.  The Warhawks are on a 7-1 ATS run on the road against teams with a winning home record and we believe they're undervalued in this situation.  We're grabbing the points with UL-Monroe, our DogPound release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing UNLV plus the points on Friday night.  Despite the loss to BYU last time out, the Rebels still have a shot at postseason play, but must win their final two games.  UNLV catches a badly struggling New Mexico team tonight, no longer capable of reaching the magical six wins.  UNM has dropped five straight games, outscored by an average of 37-10.  The Lobos were favored in two of those games and installed as a single digit underdog twice, with just one expected mismatch during the run.  They're as one dimensional as it gets, with no semblance of a passing game.  In fact, New Mexico has completed just 45% of their passes the last three games, combined, averaging just 2.63 yards per attempt, with no TDs and 6 INTs.  The pass defense, meanwhile, has allowed 9 TDs with no INTs in the same three games.  UNLV enters on a 5-0 ATS run on the road (4-0 this season), and they've covered six of their last nine games, overall.  We believe the Rebels, led by RB Lexington Thomas (1,100+ yards rushing), will find little resistance on the ground with the occasional big-gainer through the air.  We'll back UNLV on Friday night.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Washington Wizards on Friday night as they shoot for a same week sweep of the Miami Heat.  After the loss earlier this week, Miami will enter Friday on a 0-7 ATS slide against teams playing above .600 basketball. Meanwhile, Washington has caught fire on the offensive end, making 47% of their shots on the season.  As I stated the other night in their 9-point win in Miami, Washington will look to push the tempo and once again it should create a problem for a Heat team without the weapons to "keep up." Washington will bring a steady rotation of fresh bodies into this one and we believe it'll prove to be too much for the Heat.  Also, as mentioned on Wednesday, the Wizards are top-5 in offensive efficiency, while the Heat struggle in this key category.  At the same time, the teams are quite close on the defensive end.  Big advantages for the home team tonight and instead of same week revenge for Miami, we are banking on a same week sweep by the Wizards.  We're laying the points with the Washington Wizards on Friday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Eastern Michigan on Wednesday night.  EMU isn't going bowling and they're going to finish with a sub-.500 record, currently 3-7 SU with two games to go.  However, the Eagles have lost three games in OT, lost three more games by 1, 4, and 5 points, and even last week's 42-30 loss to CMU was a 5-point game with one minute to go in the contest.  EMU can pass the heck out of the football, averaging 270 yards passing per game, while the defense ranks 15th against the pass.  Miami got Gus Ragland back at QB last week and they beat Akron 24-14. Ragland threw 3 TD passes, but also threw 2 INTs.  Ragland has thrown at least 1 INT in each of his last three games, has completed just 54.5% of his passes on the season and again, will face a strong pass defense tonight.  And while the Redhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games, EMU is on a 16-5 ATS run, overall, and they're on a 7-1 ATS run off a SU loss.  We expect a SU win for the road team tonight, but our play is to take the points.  Eastern Michigan, plus the points on Wednesday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with UCSB on Wednesday night.  Life has been a little rough for the Pittsburgh basketball program since the departure of Jamie Dixon to TCU.  This season promises to be a long one and the Panthers are already off to a 0-2 start, losing to Montana and Navy.  Pitt had to replace all five starters from last year's team and they've turned the ball over 32 times in two games.  They've shot poorly and have also had their issues on the defensive end, allowing 45% FG shooting. There was little fan support last time out, so there's a lack of a home court feel for the 11 new additions and three freshmen starters.  UCSB brings back four starters from last year's squad along with senior PG Gabe Vincent. The Gauchos struggled with their shot last season, but under first year coach Joe Pasternack, they took to an uptempo attack in game one.  Vincent is a true disher and finished with 8 assists, while the team shot 51% from the field and an even better rate from the 3-point line.  UCSB finished the game with 21 assists and only 6 turnovers.  As far as the "techs," Pitt is on a 0-7 ATS slide (0-2 this season), and they've covered just 20 of their last 64 home games with two pushes.  We'll grab the points with UCSB on Wednesday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Spurs on Tuesday night.  San Antone has won and covered 4 of their last 5 games, playing dominant basketball in the process.  I expect that to continue against a badly struggling Dallas squad that's lost 8 of their last 9 games (2-7 ATS).  Dallas has allowed 111 points or more in five of their last eight games and Dirk Nowitzki is no longer capable of bailing his team out.  Dallas is the second worst shooting team in the league and rank 27th in FG percentage allowed.  The Mavs have covered just 1 of their last 9 home games and just 1 of their last 11 when playing on one day rest. The Spurs have a date with the Timberwolves on Wednesday, but we don't believe there will be any distraction here.  I'm laying the points with the Spurs on Tuesday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with North Texas on Monday night.  Nebraska basketball coach Tim Miles may not be in as much hot water as his football counterpart Mike Riley, but his seat is getting warm.  In fact, fail to make a postseason tourney and new AD Bill Moos might be making coaching changes to the gridiron and hardcourt in the same year.  Nebraska failed to cover as a double digit favorite in their opener, beating Eastern Illinois 72-68 as an 11 1/2 point favorite.  The Huskers have lost nearly twice as many games ATS as they have covered when installed as a 10 point or more home favorite.  They're 4-12 ATS as home chalk of 12 1/2 to 18 points under Miles.  They tend to try to win with defense.  But Nebraska's major issues under Miles of late has been an inability to make 3-pointers and an inability to defend the 3-point line.  New season, same results against EIU, making just 31% of their treys, while allowing the Panthers to make nearly 40% of their's.   Tonight, they'll face a North Texas team that's bringing a change in personality this season.  The Mean Green want to get the ball up and down the floor with speed and it showed in game one, hoisting up nearly 80 FGA, while piling up over 120 points.  Obviously, it came against an out-manned opponent, but while this is a step-up we like the talent 1st year HC Grant McCasland has around him. McCasland made a 10-game improvement in his one season at Arkansas State before being hired away by North Texas.  He has the troops to force Nebraska out of their comfort zone and make this a close contest.  The Huskers are laying too many in our opinion and we'll grab the points with North Texas, our Monday DogPound release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.