I'm taking the points with the Denver Broncos on Sunday night.  Outside of last week's disaster in Philly, the Broncos' defense has played extremely well this season, ranked 2nd in the league in total yards allowed per contest.  I expect a "chip on their shoulder" effort this week after last weekend's embarrassment.  They'll face a less than healthy Patriot offensive line with Marcus Cannon banged-up and the WR unit is far from healthy.  The Denver defense has matched-up well over the last several meetings, holding Brady in check more often than not.  The Patriots' offense hasn't been anything special of late, averaging just 21.75 ppg over their last four contests.  And you always have to lay a little extra when the Pats are involved, which explains their 2-6 ATS slide on the road against teams with a losing home record.  Denver enters on a 5-1 ATS run as a home dog and they're 6-2 ATS at home against New England.  I'm grabbing the points with the Broncos on Sunday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with UL-Monroe on Sunday afternoon.  The Warhawks played well in an 83-73 loss to TCU, easily covering a 25-point spread.  They kept it close despite being afforded just 11 FTA to 28 for TCU.  I like the way they hung tough on the glass and finished with 18 assists and just 12 turnovers. SMU will have a solid year again, but lost three starters to the NBA, including Semi Ojeleye, last year's AAC Player of the Year.  SMU started badly against UMBC in their season opener and actually trailed at halftime, before turning the corner in the final 20 minutes.  They should win this game, but we're getting a lot of points...too many points, as far as we're concerned. Richard Keith normally gets his team ready for these kind of games, going 51-32 ATS as a double digit road dog.  I'm taking the points with UL-Monroe, our Sunday Shocker.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Buffalo Bills on Sunday.  Tough situation for the Saints who're heading out on the road sporting a 6-game SU/ATS winning streak.  But take a look at the opponents.  We give New Orleans credit for winning against the teams in front of them, but they haven't faced a gauntlet of offensive firepower.  The Bills may not pile-up big passing yardage, but they can control a game with the ground attack.  They're a perfect 4-0 SU at home (3-0-1 ATS) and won by an average margin of more than a TD per contest.  Buffalo has been a winner at home with Tyrod Taylor behind center, going 18-7 SU and 16-8 ATS. And their passing game should be the best we've seen all season with newly acquired WR Kelvin Benjamin expected to suit-up.  Tough spot for the Saints, while I expect Buffalo at its best!  We'll grab the points with the Bills, our Underdog release. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. I like going against teams that struggle throwing the football when they're laying more than a FG.  The Titans fit the mold.  They don't own the consistent passing game (27th in yards per game) to win by margin in most cases.  In fact, the Titans are 1-3-1 ATS when laying more than 2 points and have had a tough time just reaching 300 yards of total offense in several games of late. Tennessee has been a November fade, covering just one of their last eight. Cincy heads into this one, winners in three of their last five games and they own the defense (6th in total yards allowed) to slow the Titan offense.  I'm grabbing the points with the Bengals, our KO release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Colorado State on Saturday night.  We feel we're getting solid value with the home underdog in this one.  Boise State brings a five-game winning streak to Fort Collins, but only one of those truly impressed us, beating SDSU a few weeks ago.  Two of the wins came against dreadful BYU and Nevada.  Boise, we should note, has covered just three of their last 12 against teams with a winning record.  CSU has dropped two straight after starting the season 6-2 SU.  But they have been kind to the bankroll against teams with a winning record, going 10-2 ATS the last 12, and 17-6-1 ATS off a SU loss.  The offense is balanced, ranked 25th through the air and 36th on the ground.  In fact, this might be the most balanced attack Boise has faced in a while.  Meanwhile, the Broncos are 94th on the ground on offense, while the passing game is middle of the road.  We don't believe they'll be able to pull away by margin. In fact, we don't believe they'll win the game.  However, our play is to take the points with the highly undervalued Rams.  We're taking the points with Colorado State our DogPound Game of the Week.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the short points with UCLA on Saturday.  Josh Rosen has been upgraded to probable for the Bruins and that means we'll have the nation's 10th ranked passing offense squaring off against the nation's 110th pass defense. Arizona State allowed an average of 36.4 ppg through their first four games of the season before getting a defensive reprieve and holding Washington and Utah to a combined 17 points mid-season. Unfortunately for ASU, the defense returned to form and has since allowed 48 points and 30 points to USC and Colorado.  Another issue for the Sun Devils is the fact they don't have much of a ground game, so we don't believe they'll be able to attack UCLA where the Bruin defense is at its most vulnerable. The Bruins need two wins in their final three games to reach bowl eligibility and they're a perfect 4-0 SU at home this season, averaging 40 ppg.  We backed Arizona State last week and got a fortunate late cover over Colorado.  But this week, we'll go against the desert dwellers and lay the points with UCLA, our Saturday night Beatdown.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Missouri on Saturday night.  Butch Davis is all but gone following the end of the season and even in a win over out-manned Southern Miss last week, the Vols were unimpressive.  That might have been the team's last big effort for their embattled coach. Mizzou HC Barry Odom was about two steps from being shown the door after a 53-28 loss to Georgia dropped the Tigers to 1-5. Since then, Missouri has dropped the clutch instead of dropping football games, winning three straight by 47, 40, and 29 points. This is Missouri's home finale before finishing on the road at Vanderbilt and Arkansas, and they need two more wins to become bowl eligible.  The passing game is unstoppable right now and Tennessee's defense is prone to allowing a big ground game this week, also, ranked 123rd against the run.  The Vols' offense is unreliable and we don't believe they'll be able to "keep up" in this one.  It's certainly not the same team that clobbered the Tigers 63-37 a season ago.  The Vols are 8-24 ATS off a cover, while Mizzou has covered five straight games.  I'm laying the points with Missouri on Saturday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Mississippi State.  The more we looked into this game, the more reasons we found to back the Bulldogs.  Alabama continues to "take on water" due to the injury bug that has hit the defense.  The passing game is also suffering a bit, and MSU does two things we like a lot -- they run the ball extremely well and they stop the run.  The Bulldogs also have the type of QB, Nick Fitzgerald, (a dual-threat), which are the kind who have caused Alabama problems in the past.  Defensively, Miss State is not only strong against the run, but they rank 8th against the pass and 7th in total yards allowed per game.  And while Mississippi State is on a 21-5 ATS run in "Stark-Vegas" against teams with a winning road record, but Alabama is just 2-5 ATS in their last seven against teams with a winning record.  Dan Mullen will have his troops ready and we believe they're catching the Tide at the right time.  I'm taking the points with Mississippi State, our Top Shocker. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Purdue.  We backed Northwestern as a free play last week in Lincoln and came away with a fortunate OT win.  Overtime is the key word as it was Northwestern's third OT win in three weeks.  We don't expect the Wildcats to be at their sharpest or most energetic this week, especially since last week's win also accomplished their 6th win making them bowl eligible.  The 'Cats can't run the football and they're horrible against the pass.  Purdue still needs two wins to receive a postseason invite.  They aren't bad through the air and allow just 369 total yards per game on defense.  The Boilermakers are physical up front on offense and we believe they'll wear down the weary Wildcats. Purdue is 11-1-1 ATS on the road against teams with a winning home record.  The road team has covered five in a row in the series and Purdue has covered seven of the last nine meetings. I'm taking the points with Purdue, our Road Warrior.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with FAU on Saturday.  This marks the second time in a few weeks that we have backed the Owls.  The first time paid off with an easy win and cover over North Texas. FAU is a year ahead of schedule and they're having no trouble tearing through the conference, winning five in a row, while covering four.  The 7th ranked ground attack led by Devin Singletary, (who has rushed for over 1,200 yards), will face a La Tech defense that simply can't stop the run.  The Bulldogs have been involved in four straight nail-biters and are led by QB J'Mar Smith, who isn't the most accurate passer, completing less than 57% of his attempts.  That's scary news considering FAU's ball-hawking defense has 15 INTs in their last five games, picking off at least two passes in each of those contests. We note that college road favorites are on a 65-25 ATS run if they beat the spread by at least 5 TDs (35 points) in their previous five games combined, provided they have a winning record and their opponent has a losing record.  La Tech has covered just one of their last six against teams with a winning record. I'm laying the points with FAU, our KO on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

We're laying the points with Montana State on Friday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the OKC Thunder on Thursday night.  The Thunder vets and newbies are trying to find their chemistry and eventually they will, but right now, they need to focus on snapping a three-game losing streak that includes a somewhat embarrassing loss at Sacramento.  Russell Westbrook spoke about the fact he doesn't mind the occasional night like they had against Sacto, noting it'll bring the team together.  Westbrook, George, and Carmelo combined to make just 14 of their 54 FG attempts.  And while they're being patient, I do expect a "chip on their shoulder" effort tonight in Denver.  The Nuggets have covered just one of their last five home games, while OKC enters on a 13-3 ATS run on the road following at least two straight road losses.  They're also 20-6 ATS after having lost three of their previous four games with Billy Donovan as coach, outscoring those 26 opponents by an average margin of 10 ppg.  We're backing the Thunder, our Thursday Slam Dunk. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Bowling Green on Tuesday night.  The Buffalo Bulls still have a shot at gaining the magical six wins on the season, but to do so they'll need to snap their four-game losing streak and win their final three games of the season.  The offense has averaged less than 16 ppg in the last three outings and and was out-gained in two of those.  The Bulls can't run the football and QB Tyree Jackson has just 3 TD passes with 2 INTs on the season.  In fact, in two seasons behind center Jackson has as many TD passes (9) as INTs thrown.  Buffalo is also 115th against the run on defense.  We're not saying BG's defense is anything special, but they have won their last two road games, winning 37-29 as a 17-point underdog at Miami-Oh, and winning 44-16 as a 1 1/2 point favorite at Kent State last time out.  We like the Falcon offense more than Buffalo's.  The underdog has covered 10 of the last 12 in this series and Bowling Green has covered four of the last five at Buffalo.  There are a few players listed as questionable for the Falcons, but we like them to keep this one close and hang the number, whether they play or not.  I'm taking the points with Bowling Green on Tuesday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Pacers on Sunday.  Indiana had their 3-game SU/ATS winning streak snapped last time out when Philadelphia put 121 points on the board in an 11-point Pacer loss.  It was apparent the Pacers were a little less than sharp following their 124-107 win over the Cavaliers.  They head into this one, likely refocused, and they're 4-0 ATS off of their last four SU losses. New York is off a win over Phoenix and have now won four of their last five games.  But they've been a little shaky on defense of late, allowing 107, 119, and 110 points in their last three games.  We believe the permissive defensive play catches up to them here, much like it did in a 119-97 loss to Houston.  Not that Indiana will win by 22, but that the Pacers will take it to the Knicks and gain the SU win.  The Knicks have covered just 5 of their last 18 off a win, while the Pacers are on a 4-0 ATS run on the road against teams with a winning record and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 off a loss by at least 11 points.  I'm backing the Pacers plus the points, our Slam Dunk.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday.  We were prepared to back Dallas with or without Zeke Elliott and we now know we'll have him on the field.  The Cowboys ground game will face one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  In fact, KC's defense is bottom of the league in yards per play allowed. They also rank 28th, 29th, and 30th, in run defense, pass defense, and total yards allowed per game, respectively. The Chiefs are a good team, but they aren't an elite team in our opinion. The Cowboys enter on a 9-1 ATS run off two straight road wins and they're 6-0 ATS after out-rushing their opponents by at least 75 yards two straight weeks.  I'm laying the points with the Cowboys, our Knockout on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Denver Broncos on Sunday.  The switch at QB from Trevor Simien to Brock Osweiler can only help Denver.  Simien had lost his confidence, looked lost at times, and at least Osweiler has won with this organization and is familiar with a couple of his receivers.  He's also making his first start of the season against the NFL's 27th ranked pass defense.  Mostly, we like the fact that the Denver defense is catching the Eagles at the right time.  Philly is banged-up on the offensive line and must face the NFL's 2nd ranked run defense, 6th ranked pass defense, and stingiest defense in total yards allowed.  This is the time of year when teams that have been knocked around a bit start to own spread value.  In fact, after the first month of the season, NFL non-favorites on the road (dogs or PK) are on a 46-18 ATS run provided they were beaten ATS by at least 49 points over the last five games.  These teams are undervalued ATS at this point of the season and Denver is one of those teams.  I'm grabbing the points with the Denver Broncos, our DogPound release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Colts on Sunday.  The adjustment of 6 points for the loss of Deshaun Watson is not enough as far as we're concerned.  A Tom Savage-led offense shouldn't be this big of a favorite over anyone, and now it's the underdog Colts with the best QB on the field.  Jacoby Brissett has completed over 60% of his passes as a member of the Colts and came up just short last weekend against the Bengals. Indy is actually on an 11-2 ATS run on the road against teams with a losing record and the road team is on a 4-0-2 ATS run in the series.  The value lies with the dog and we'll back them here.  I'm taking the points with the Colts, our Road Warrior release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Arizona State on Saturday night.  The more I looked into this one the more I agreed with the line movement on the Sun Devils.  ASU caught USC at the wrong time last week. The Trojans were a ticked-off football team that was beginning to get healthy where it mattered.  Bad timing for ASU.  Colorado beat Cal, but caught the Golden Bears off of a two-week thrilling span, beating Washington State in front of the home folks, then fighting back before losing by a point in OT to Arizona.  But I like the Sun Devils here.  Steven Montez saw the nation's 116th ranked pass defense last week.  Arizona State's LB's have really picked-up their play in recent weeks and will load up to slow Phillip Lindsay, forcing Montez to make key plays with his arm.  Let's not forget Montez was benched just a couple weeks ago for poor play.  We also get ASU in a big revenge spot.  The Devils had dominated the series before an ugly loss to the Buffs in Boulder last season. This marks just the 4th road game of the season for CU and they're just 1-2 thus far, getting shutout by Washington, losing to UCLA, scoring just 23 points against one of the worst defenses in the nation, and getting their lone win in a 36-33 squeaker over Oregon State.  The Buffs have covered just 3 of their last 12, while the Sun Devils are on a 10-4 ATS run at home and have covered four in a row in Tempe against Colorado.  We like Arizona State to win going away and we'll back them here.  Arizona State minus the points is our KO release.   Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Virginia Tech on Saturday.  Miami keeps sneaking by lesser teams than the one they're going to face this week.  The Hurricanes don't have RB Mark Walton and have been crushed on the ground the last two weeks.  Miami was out-rushed 176-59 by North Carolina and 264-136 by Syracuse. Miami averaged just 3.04 yards per carry in those two games, putting pressure on QB Malik Rosier.  The Hurricane signal caller has managed to stay away from the INT the last two weeks, but has completed just 52% of his passes.  He and his offense will face the nation's 14th ranked pass defense, 12th ranked run defense, and 9th ranked defense overall, allowing just 284.5 total yards per contest.  Va Tech DC Bud Foster will certainly have a wrinkle or two just for Rosier, and we're talking about a stop unit that allows just 11.5 ppg. Offensively, Va Tech owns a good passing game and ground attack, adding up to about 447 total yards per game.  They crushed Miami in the trenches in last season's 37-16 win and while the Hurricanes are making strides under Mark Richt, we don't believe Miami has made up enough ground quite yet.  Miami heads into this one 0-6 ATS off a win by six or less, while the Hokies are on a 12-3 ATS run as road chalk of three or less, outscoring the 15 opponents by an average margin of 13 ppg.  They're 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games, overall. I believe Miami will be exposed this week and I'm laying the points with Virginia Tech on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Southern Miss over Tennessee.  The Volunteers may have put forth their final true effort for lame duck HC Butch Jones last week, but still fell short against a Kentucky team they had dominated 31 of the last 32 years.  I certainly don't like them laying points off the loss.  Southern Miss got shocked last weekend by UAB. We suspected it and it came to fruition as the Eagles looked fat-and-sassy heading into the game on a 3 game winning streak, culminating with an OT win over La Tech.  Southern Miss looked spent from start to finish in the defeat.  But a winnable game against an SEC program like Tennessee will get the competitive juices flowing this week.  So Miss also needs one more win for a shot at postseason play and could very well get it here.  The Eagles face a Vols' defense allowing over 5 yards per carry and ranked 125th in yards rushing allowed per game, while So Miss makes opponents earn their yardage more often than not.  Southern Miss has covered 8 of their last 10 games, overall, and four straight on the road.  Tennessee is on a 6-20 ATS slide at home against teams with a winning road record.  I'm taking the points with Southern Miss, our Hammer release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Army on Saturday.  The Cadets have one of their best units in a while, have won four straight games, and have had an extra week to prep for Air Force.  We have the #1 (Army) and #2 (AFA) running games in college football, but Army has the advantage on defense.  Air Force ranks 120th against the run, allowing 231.9 yards per game on the ground and a whopping 32.6 ppg on the scoreboard. The Falcons are hot also, winning three straight games, but they allowed exactly 100 points in the three wins against UNLV, Nevada, and Colorado State.  The win over CSU was a bit misleading as the Rams hurt their own cause with turnovers.  Army has been stellar on the road off a home game in their previous contest, covering eight in a row.  And as reported, we also note the underdog is on a 14-1 ATS run in games involving Air Force. We're grabbing the points with Army, our DogPound release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Virginia on Saturday.  The Cavaliers stood 5-1 SU and looked like a postseason appearance was all but a lock.  Three weeks later and the Cavs have dropped back-to-back games, meaning there's work to be done. However, this might be their best chance to pick up a bowl qualifying win. Following Saturday's game against Ga Tech, the Cavaliers have road games at Louisville and Miami, and finish with a home game against Va Tech.  UVA has rebounded well off a loss by 17 or more under HC Bronco Mendenhall, covering six of eight.  They're 15-8 ATS as a dog in general the last 23 times.  And UVA is in true revenge.  The Cavaliers won two years ago, 27-21 and absolutely dominated Ga Tech last season, including gaining 25 first downs to 8 for the Jackets, but couldn't overcome a minus-3 turnover margin.  Ga Tech heads to town with offensive line injuries and a banged-up squad in general after a rough tilt with Clemson.  In fact, they have faced Clemson, Wake Forest, and Miami in their last three games with Va Tech up next.  Finally, while Ga Tech is undefeated ATS this season, this marks the first time they have been installed as road chalk this season and they're 0-3 ATS in this situation the last three times. I'm taking the points with Virginia, our Shocker on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Utah on Friday night.  No revenge here as the UCLA Bruins' disappointing season continues.  And Utah, in a rebuilding year gets "just what the doctor ordered." The Utes will want to run the ball with a power game, and draws the horrible UCLA run defense that ranks 130th in the country, allowing over 300 yards rushing per game.  Call it the perfect setup for the return of Utah's identity after dropping four straight games.  Bruin QB Josh Rosen is listed as questionable and we don't care if he plays or not.  While we respect his NFL talent, the fact is, it hasn't mattered playing on this team for this soon to be unemployed coaching staff.  UCLA's passing game will face a Utah defense with more INTs than TD passes allowed this season.  UCLA is on a 1-6 ATS slide in Pac-12 play, and while it's not a huge sample size, the Bruins have dropped four in a row ATS as a road dog of seven or less.  Let's also not forget they've covered just 11 of their last 32 games, overall, a true bankroll burner. We're laying the points with Utah, our Friday Night Smash. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Spurs on Friday night.  San Antone is struggling without Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker, including last night's 112-92 loss to Golden State.  It was a rough final quarter for the Spurs and Gregg Popovich wasn't too pleased with his team's mistakes.  One player who is bringing it nightly is LaMarcus Aldridge, averaging 24 ppg & 9 rpg.  We expect a big night tonight from Aldridge in this matchup. The home team has won four in a row ATS in this series and San Antonio is 3-0 ATS this season when the line is in the +3/-3 range as it is at the time of this release.  Charlotte has won and covered three straight, but we feel they're overvalued at this point.  The Hornets have covered just one of their last six on the road and they're 1-8 ATS after winning two straight games in close fashion, but no more than six points in each win.  Bounce back time for San Antonio.  We're laying the points with the Spurs, our Friday Night Slam Dunk. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Temple on Thursday night.  The Middies will look to exact revenge for their 34-10 loss in the last meeting -- and they may get it, but we feel this one is either a Temple outright win, or a very close loss. That's been Temple's M.O. of late, just 1-3 SU in their last four games, but 3-1 ATS.  The three losses came by a grand total of 13 points.  Navy expects to have QB Zach Abey (head) on the field, but it doesn't matter to us.  The nucleus of players who returned from last year's Temple team understand how to defend the option, while the offense should be able to pass the football on the 82nd ranked pass defense that's allowed 106 points in their last three games.  Temple enters on an 8-1 ATS run against defenses that allow at least 58% passing.  They're also on a 6-0 ATS run at home against teams with a winning record.  And finally, the Owls have covered eight of their last nine when lined as an underdog of 3 1/2 to 10 points.  Temple is grasping first-year HC Geoff Collins game plan as the season progresses and we're backing them here. I'm taking the points with Temple on Thursday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the LA Clippers on Wednesday night.  Dallas comes to town the perfect foil for a big time LAC bounce back.  The Clippers will be chomping at the bit to get back on the floor after dropping two in a row to Detroit and Golden State, the second a 141-113 crushing.  Both the Pistons and Warriors controlled the flow of the game against the Clips, but that changes tonight in our betting opinion.  We were on Dallas and cashed when they beat Memphis on October 25, still the Mavs' only win of the season.  Dallas is second to last in the NBA in offensive and defensive FG percentage and they allow 107 ppg, while barely cracking 98, themselves.  The Mavs are on a 3-10-1 ATS slide going back to last season and they have covered just one of their last nine on one day of rest.  We'll back the LA Clippers minus the points.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Carolina on Sunday.  Last weekend's loss to Chicago couldn't have been more misleading or frustrating if you were a Panther backer.  The Panthers' defense was fantastic, holding the Bears to 5 first downs and 153 total yards, but Chicago's defense returned a fumble 75 yards for one TD, and had a 76 yard pick-6 for another TD.  Not only did the Bears score 14 points off those two plays, but with the ball inside the Chicago 30, the turnovers took a potential 14 points away from Carolina.  The Panthers were "that close" to a possible 17-3 win and cover.  Cam Newton is ticked-off and we expect the Panther offense to take care of business against the NFL's 30th ranked defense in both passing yards allowed and total yards allowed. Meanwhile, the 4th ranked Carolina defense will look to slam the door on a Tampa Bay offense that has been without Jameis Winston for a pair of practice days this week.  We aren't too crazy about the Buccs offense whether it's Winston or Ryan Fitzpatrick behind center.  Carolina has covered five of their last six road games and they've covered four straight in Tampa Bay.  The overvalued Buccs have failed to cover any of their last five games and they're 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 home games against teams with a winning road record.  I'm taking the points with the Panthers on Sunday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Oakland Raiders plus the points on Sunday.  We had Oakland last week and cashed when the won late at Kansas City.  We felt that was a galvanizing victory for several reasons. While the general public is in love with the Bills in this one, we like the way the offensive line gave Derek Carr the time to throw last week and it certainly helps to have Amari Cooper back on track. They'll attack a Bills' defense ranked 26th against the pass.  The offense is also bad through the air and we feel they'll have fall behind and not be able to catch up in this one.  Oakland is on a 10-4 ATS run as a road dog and they're 8-1 ATS off an outright win when getting points.  I'm taking the points with the Raiders on Sunday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Washington State, our KO in the Pac-12 on Saturday night.  Cougar HC Mike Leach gets a ton of credit for the passing game he brings to every coaching locale.  But this year's Washington State Cougars also know a thing or two about defense where they're ranked 7th in the nation in total yards allowed per game, including 3rd stingiest against the pass, and 23rd against the run.  And under his direction, the Cougars are a perfect 9-0 ATS against run-oriented teams, those that rush for at least 230 yards per game.  Arizona has been a pleasant surprise for some, but the fact is, this will mark their biggest step-up in level of competition this season.  The Wildcats don't bother passing the football, they run the ball as much as possible.  But their four FBS wins came against defenses ranked 101st, 122nd, 95th, and 111th, in total yards allowed per game.  Those teams also ranked 76th, 130th, 97th, and 119th against the run. The 'Cats played two teams with run defenses ranked in the top-60 (Utah and Houston) and lost both games.  Arizona will also face a team that does pass the football a lot, but also possesses the football the majority of the game and gains more than 20 first downs per game. I bring that up because under HC Rich Rodriguez, the Wildcats are 0-7 ATS against teams that average at least 21 FDs per game and hold the ball for at least 32 minutes per game.  Wazzu, as mentioned, fits the bill.  Luke Falk and his teammates didn't show up for their game at Cal a couple weeks ago off the win over USC, but bounced back with a 28-0 win over Colorado last week.  They held the Buffs to 174 total yards and just 80 yards rushing on 40 carries. That's the same CU offense that scored 42 against Arizona, while gaining 551 yards.  Besides the numbers already mentioned, WSU is 15-3 ATS (4-0 this season) against teams that complete more than 58% of their passes and they're 11-1 ATS (2-0 this season) against teams that average at least 5.9 yards per play.  Arizona is playing with revenge on their mind, but I'm betting they fall short.  I'm laying the points with Washington State on Saturday night. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Kentucky on Saturday night.  Yes, we know about Tennessee's head-to-head dominance in this series.  But this might be the worst Vols' version of them all and Kentucky may not get a better chance of picking up the win.  If the Vols had any semblance of a passing game, (or a ground game for that matter), they wouldn't be led by a virtual lame duck coach.  Tennessee ranks 108th on the ground, 112th through the air, and 126th in total yards per game.  To top if off, RB John Kelly is one of a handful of players listed as out for this game (suspension).  Meanwhile, Kentucky owns their best defense in half-a-dozen years and should bounce back from last week's loss, while I expect the Wildcat offense to establish a run against the horrible Vols' run defense.  Tennessee has dropped six straight ATS off a loss by 20 or more...they don't bounce back well. Kentucky has covered 8 of their last 11 SEC games.  I'm laying the points with Kentucky, our KNOCKOUT release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Minnesota on Saturday, our Road Warrior.  The Iowa Hawkeyes have dropped three of their last four games and while they're 4-3 SU, overall, they could very well be under .500, barely beating Iowa State, 44-41 in OT.  The offense is not a good one, ranked 103rd in yards rushing per game and total yards per game, while the passing game is also unreliable.  Iowa has been horrible in the red-zone, ranked 124th in this key category.  This is all too familiar under HC Kirk Ferentz.  Even their 45-16 win over hapless Illinois was misleading.  Iowa got out-gained by the Illini and led just 24-16 in the fourth quarter.  In fact, the Hawks have been out-gained in each of their last four games. Minnesota can run the football and we believe they'll find success against a Hawkeye defense that's been under the gun too often this season, having to make up for the weak offense.  The Gophers are extremely stingy on defense, equally good against the run and the pass. Minnesota dropped three straight games (two could have gone either way) before getting healthy against Illinois last time out and we believe it'll prove to be a stepping stone in the right direction.  The Gophers are on a 6-0-2 ATS run on the road against teams with a winning home record and we'll back them here.  I'm taking the points with Minnesota on Saturday, our Road Warrior.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Northwestern on Saturday.  Spartan HC Mike Dantonio has turned things around after a tough 2016 campaign, including a 14-10 win over Michigan.  But the wins haven't exactly come against a murderer's row of offensive units.  MSU beat Iowa, ranked 104th in total yards per game and the Hawkeyes can't run the football. They've beaten Michigan and their 99th ranked offense...Michigan has no passing game. And Dantonio's troops beat Indiana and their 94th ranked offense.  We understand you can only beat the teams that are put in front of you, but all four wins were close games.  This week, they face Northwestern, a step-up in offensive competition when you consider the Wildcats actually have a passing offense ranked in the top-50 (43rd, to be exact).  Defensively, Northwestern has slammed the door on opposing running games.  That's scary news for a Michigan State team that can't rely on the pass. The Spartans will attempt to exact revenge for a 54-40 loss last season, but we are betting they'll come up short of their goal.  I'm grabbing the points with Northwestern on Saturday, our Hammer release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Penn State on Saturday.  The last time Ohio State faced a legitimate offense (and defense for that matter) the Buckeyes took it on the chin at home in a one-sided loss to Oklahoma.  QB J.T. Barrett struggled as he has been known to do in step-up games during his collegiate career.  His downfield completions were few and far between through the OU game.  Since then, we've heard nothing but great things about his development.  But look at the competition.  Since the loss to the Sooners, Ohio State has faced the defenses of Army, UNLV, Rutgers, Maryland, and Nebraska.  He's going to see "a little more resistance" this week against Penn State.  We like the look of Nittany Lion QB Trace McSorley last week against Michigan.  He showed he can make quick decisions and key plays without being completely reliant on RB Saquon Barkley.  Penn State not only opened up on the Wolverines in the second half, but out-gained U-M, 506-269 for the game.  Some believe the Nittany Lions might have a letdown...I'm not one of them.  Penn State enters on an 11-1-1 ATS run in Big-10 play, while going 15-4-2 ATS in their last 21 games, overall. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes have covered just one of their last five home games. I'm grabbing the points with Penn State on Saturday, our DogPound release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Oregon State on Thursday night.  Former Beavers' HC Gary Anderson stepped aside, resigning from his position a couple weeks ago and even said he wasn't focused on the job at hand.  We saw immediate dividends when Cory Hall was named interim coach. The offense was bottled up and hamstrung under Anderson, but Hall opened things up in his first game calling the shots and Oregon State gained over 560 yards of offense in a 36-33 loss to Colorado. OSU led the Buffs until the final 1:34 of the game.  This is not the same attack Stanford would have prepped for just a few weeks ago and that makes things a little more difficult. Meanwhile, whether RB Bryce Love (ankle) plays or not, Stanford will look to power their way to victory with the ground attack paving the way.  So, even if successful, we are betting the Cardinal will not be able to pull away by a margin greater than the spread. Stanford also has bigger fish to fry coming up, facing Washington State, Washington, Cal, and Notre Dame, in that order, to close the season.  The Cardinal are 1-6 ATS off a cover. Oregon State is on a 9-3 ATS conference run and they're 26-9 ATS after losing a Pac-12 game by no more than seven points.  Stanford has won the last seven meetings, but the last five have come by an average of just 13 ppg.  I'm grabbing the points with Oregon State on Thursday night.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday.  While Dallas struggles through more rebuilding, the Memphis Grizzlies have made a few changes, including their style of play, looking to shoot earlier in the shot clock than the teams we have grown used to over the last few years.  Memphis is off to a great start, including a 98-90 win over Houston.  They have three in a row to start the season, including two straight outright wins as an underdog. Memphis is just 8-19 ATS on the road after at least two straight wins and they're on a 1-5 ATS slide after winning at least two straight as an underdog. Dallas is not only winless in four games, but got crushed 133-103 by Golden State last time out.  Over the last three seasons, the Mavs are 13-4 ATS following a loss by 20 or more and 4-0 ATS after losing by 30.  And we also know that NBA teams are 6-25 ATS if they have won at least three straight games, had a winning season last year, and are facing a team that finished below .500 the previous season.  We like these situations early in the season and we'll follow it here.  I'm grabbing the points with the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Washington Redskins on Monday night. Payback is on the minds of the Skins after losing 30-17 to Philadelphia in week-one.  The final score was misleading, it was a 19-17 game with 2+ minutes to go in the fourth quarter before the Eagles kicked a FG and scored late on a fumble return for a TD.  The Skins were sloppy in the loss and Kirk Cousins had yet to find his stride. But since then, Cousins has thrown 8 TD passes with just 1 INT, and the Skins now own the NFL's 8th best passing game, averaging over 250 yards per game. The Skins will face the league's 29th ranked pass defense.  Washington has been a true road warrior for the bankroll, covering 10 of the last 13 away from home.  They're 8-2 ATS in their last 10 trips to Philly.  Washington has also been great at solving good run defenses over the last three seasons, going 6-0 ATS against teams that allow no more than 90 yards rushing per game.  The coaching staff gets another shot at this type of defense, while Cousins and company get another shot to atone for the week-one loss.  We'll back them here.  I'm grabbing the points with the Redskins on Monday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Denver Broncos on Sunday, our KO release.  Denver couldn't have looked any worse on Sunday night in their loss to the Giants.  The offense was horrible, the defense was gouged on the ground.  But after playing about as bad as they possibly can, we like the Broncos to bounce right back today. The Chargers are back home where they're winless after winning two in a row on the road.  But that's the main thing when it comes to LAC.  We don't want to play them in their new "digs" where a false home field advantage is somewhat baked into the number.  L.A. is not supporting this team and half the crowd at the soccer field in Carson will be wearing Denver colors.  As far as the on field matchups are concerned, Denver runs well, while the defense is a beast, outside of the anomaly against the Giants.  Meanwhile, the Chargers are dead last against the run, and while they have "found" Melvin Gordon of late, we don't feel he'll be able to get the job done on the ground against the Broncos.  The Chargers enter on a 2-8-1 ATS slide, overall.  They've covered just 7 of their last 26 home games (0-3 SU/ATS this season), and Denver has covered 5 of the last 6 road games in this series.  Different home venue for the Chargers...same results. I'm backing the Denver Broncos, our KO release on Sunday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Green Bay Packers on Sunday.  We fully understand the reason for the 10+ point adjustment following the injury to Aaron Rodgers. We also believe the adjustment is too great.  New Orleans is on a nice run, winning and covering three straight games, and as NFL teams are in this situation, they're overvalued, receiving a lot of recent hype.  Brett Hundley has been waiting for his chance, while learning behind arguably the best QB in the league.  While no one makes the throws from all angles like Rodgers, Hundley can certainly extend plays with his feet like his mentor.  The latest injury updates certainly help our cause with both Green Bay starting OTs expected to play.  HC Mike McCarthy has done a tremendous job getting his team ready off a division game, going 12-1 ATS in this spot the last 13 times, including a 4-0 ATS run off a division loss.  They're also 20-6 ATS off a two-game road trip.  We're taking the points with the Packers on Sunday, our Dogpound release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Fresno State on Saturday night.  This line opened higher offshore, but in Nevada, the typical opening line was 8.  One shop opened it 10, but lowered it two full points, literally 16-seconds later because it was a bad number.  But even at the current number, the value still lies with the underdog.  SDSU has played several close games this season and got their doors blown off last week.  We saw this coming a few weeks ago when we went against SDSU and cashed a ticket with a top play release on Northern Illinois. The Aztecs won 34-28, but NIU covered. The alarming part of the equation was the fact the Aztecs got out-gained 429-263 and had to rely on three non-offensive TDs.  We cashed with Fresno, taking the big points against Alabama early this season.  The Bulldogs only two losses in six games came on the road in back-to-back weeks to Bama and Washington.  While we like the offensive attack HC Jeff Tedford has employed, we really like the fact the run defense is as stingy as it is.  FSU ranks 14th against the run and they have the ability to slow SDSU's bread-and-butter ground game like Boise did last week. Even if the Aztecs are up in the fourth quarter, you know Rocky Long will look for his team to grind out the clock rather than fire the ball through the air, meaning he'd gladly accept a 3 point win.  SDSU ran for just 83 yards on 39 carries in the 31-14 loss to Boise and adding to the negative, the Aztecs just lost their chance and dream at a New Years Day bowl.  SDSU is just 2-6 ATS against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are on a 12-3-1 ATS run, overall.  They're 6-0 ATS against teams with a winning record and have covered five of the last six meetings.  I'm grabbing the points with Fresno State, our MWC Shocker.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Arizona on Saturday night.  We had the Wildcats a few weeks ago when they upended Colorado as an underdog.  Arizona has found one heck of a running game under HC Rich Rodriguez, ranked 4th in the nation on the ground.  They'll face a Cal defense that's middle of the pack against the run and horrible on pass defense.  The Golden Bears caught Washington State at the right time, the Cougars were about as flat as I've seen a team this season. But I don't like the fact Cal is so bad at running the football.  They average under 100 yards rushing per contest and will run into trouble in this one. Arizona pressured a better passing game, led by UCLA QB Josh Rosen into mistakes, forcing three interceptions in last week's win.  Cal is "built" a lot like UCLA in that they're one-dimensional...all pass.  I expect similar results.  We note that in games with a +3/-3 line range, teams that run for at least 5.25 yards per carry are on a 36-13 ATS run provided they gained at least 6.5 yards per carry in their previous game.  I have been a big fan of teams that run the football well for decades and nothing has changed.  I'm laying the points with Arizona, our KO release on Saturday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Florida Atlantic on Saturday afternoon.  It took a couple games for the FAU offense to catch on to OC Kendal Briles game plan. But now that they have, the Owls have been virtually unstoppable.  After step-up games against Navy and Wisconsin, the Owls have scored 45, 31, 38, and 58 points in their last four games, winning three of them.  The offense churned out an average of 505 yards on 6.2 yards per play in the four games, including 351.5 yards rushing per game on 6.57 yards per carry.  We also note that QB Jason Driskel connected on 63% of his passes. North Texas has won three in a row, including last week's last minute game winning drive against UTSA, culminating in a 22-yard TD pass with 10-seconds left in the game.  But after that emotional high, I expect North Texas to get beat in the trenches in this one, especially facing FAU's strong ground attack.  It certainly doesn't hurt our cause that while North Texas was in a battle to the final gun, FAU had the week off to prep for the Mean Green. North Texas has covered just 7 of their last 22 road games, while the Owls have covered four in a row at home against teams with a winning road record.  UNT is 4-14 ATS the last 18 times on the road following a SU win as an underdog. And finally, as chalk, Lane Kiffin is off to a 3-0 ATS start at FAU.  I'm laying the points with Florida Atlantic, our C-USA Chalk GOY.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Purdue on Saturday.  Rutgers picked up their second win of the season this past weekend and now have two wins against bottom-feeders.  Take wins over hapless Illinois and outmanned Morgan State out of the mix and the Illini are not only winless in four games, but the offense scored a grand total of 44 points, while averaging just 259.5 total yards per game on 3.9 yards per play.  Rutgers can't run the football and the passing game averaged 148.5 yards per game in the four losses on just 4.64 yards per attempt, with 2 TD passes and 8 INTs. Boilermaker HC Jeff Brohm has done a terrific job turning around the team's level of competitiveness in his first season.  Their only losses came by single digits against Louisville and Wisconsin and a 28-10 loss to Michigan that was a 14-10 game well into the fourth quarter.  Purdue has a great shot to win their next three games and take a 6-3 record into the conference stretch run.  They enter on a 6-1 ATS run, overall, and a 13-3-2 ATS run on the road.  Meanwhile, Rutgers has covered just 5 of their last 17 Big-10 games. I'm laying the points with Purdue on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Nevada on Friday night.  The Wolf Pack have started to find their rhythm and identity under HC Jay Norvell.  Nevada beat Hawaii outright as a 3 1/2 point dog last time in Reno, and last week, took Colorado State to the brink, before falling 44-42, easily covering the 25 point spread.  The Pack have gained 566 and 564 yards in their last two games on 7.79 yards per play.  Nevada ran all over Hawaii, but when CSU took away their running game last week, the Pack went up top in a major way.  In fact, Ty Gangi and company have completed 51 of 76 passes (67%) the last two games, for 796 yards, with 9 TD passes and just 1 INT.  That's an average of 10.47 yards per pass.  Air Force is catching a different Nevada version than the one we saw earlier this season.  The Falcons fought back from a 27-0 deficit last week to beat UNLV 34-30.  But AF has not faced a decent pass offense this season, taking on mostly run-oriented offenses. Air Force heads into this one on a 1-9 ATS slide in conference play and they're on a 0-6 ATS slide on the road against teams with a losing home record, typically overvalued in this situation. Meanwhile, Nevada is 4-1 ATS in their last five MWC games and while this is Norvell's first season, the Wolf Pack have been a second half of the season team, covering 8 of their last 9 in this role.  With the way the team is coming together after a sluggish start, we see more of the same.  I'm grabbing the points with Nevada, our Friday night Hammer.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Oakland Raiders on Thursday night.  We went against the Chiefs this past weekend and watched Pittsburgh pile-up 230 yards in the first half, while holding KC to 6 yards.  The Steelers slammed the door on the Chiefs' ground game, holding Kareem Hunt in check, forcing Alex Smith to attempt to beat them with the passing game.  The Chiefs aren't generally that type of team.  We expect the Raiders' defense to put pressure in the same areas.  Oakland's biggest issue the last four games has been a lack of consistent offense.  They've had bumps and bruises to key players, including QB Derek Carr, while there has also been too much focus on deep, downfield passes, rather than earning their way downfield.  We mentioned in last week's analysis against Pittsburgh, that KC's defense is quite beatable.  They rank 24th against the pass, 27th against the run, and 29th in total yards allowed per game. Oakland may be getting "just what the doctor ordered," as they attempt to right the offensive ship.  KC has been the right side in this series of late, but we expect that to end here.  And we note that NFL teams that average at least 4.5 yards per carry have covered just 27 of the last 85 times provided they ran for no more than 50 yards in their previous game.  KC fits the bill.  We're taking the points with the Raiders, our Hammer on Thursday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Denver Nuggets plus the points on Wednesday.  Denver has been a money-maker as a road underdog, cashing 44 of their last 69 in this role.  We also believe Denver has a great shot to make serious improvements under Mike Malone.  In fact, we played Denver Over 45.5 wins on the season.  The team went 29-22 SU with Nikola Jokic at center and he has some help up front and in the backcourt this season.  Paul Millsap will be an excellent fit at power forward, while the guards are solid both in the starting role and off the bench. In fact, we feel the Nuggets have one of the top benches in the entire league. Utah won't fall off the map due to Gordon Hayward's departure, but they aren't the same team and we expect a downtick, while also losing George Hill. Ricky Rubio is one of the better dishers in the league at the point, but we feel he's neutralized by Emmanuel Mudiay. And while Mudiay has strong help from his backups, Rubio won't have teammate Dante Exum, who is out indefinitely (shoulder).  We like the look of the Nuggets and we're taking them out of the blocks, our first NBA release of the season.  I'm taking the points with the Nuggets, our NBA Shocker.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday.  Read some reports and it sounds like the wheels are coming off in the Pittsburgh clubhouse.  We're not buying it. Pittsburgh has a great chance to right the ship with a game on Sunday against the undefeated KC Chiefs.  But while KC is 5-0 SU, the defense has been soft. The Chiefs rank 21st against the run, 25th against the pass, and 27th in total yards allowed per game.  The Steelers should be able to run the football, loosening up the KC defense as Big Ben and company look to rebound from last week's nightmare performance (we had the Jags).  We note that the Steelers are not only on a 16-5 ATS run after allowing 30 points or more, but they have handled Chief-like defenses over the last few years.  Mike Tomlin's troops are 8-2 ATS against teams that allow at least 4.5 yards per carry and they're on a 6-1 ATS run against teams that allow at least 6 yards per play. Finally, while the Steelers draw everyone's attention and the Chiefs would like to exact revenge for the January 2017 playoff loss, KC does have bigger fish to fry, following Sunday's game with a Thursday night meeting with fellow AFC West rivals Oakland.  We like Pittsburgh to bounce back here and we're grabbing the points.  The Steelers plus the points on Sunday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the L.A. Rams on Sunday.  We were on the Jaguars last week and cashed the ticket when they whipped the Pittsburgh Steelers, 30-9. Neither team was expected to be 3-2 SU at this point of the season, but we like what we're seeing out of the Rams.  The passing game is the real deal.  Jared Goff is getting solid protection, while the defense is tough in the trenches, thanks in part to Aaron Donald. Meanwhile, Jacksonville's passing game still leaves a lot to be desired.  Blake Bortles' accuracy issues are at an all-time low, completing just 54.8% of his passes this season.  Bortles and the Jags had that huge game against Baltimore in London, but take that one contest out of the mix and Bortles has just 3 TDs with 4 INTs in his other four games this season.  When the Rams have the ball, we expect to see a solid ground game with Todd Gurley leading the way against the NFL's 31st ranked run defense.  With Gurley keeping the defense honest, Goff and his receiving corps should find consistent success. We note that NFL non-favorites (PK or underdog) playing .510 to .600 football, are on a 38-14 ATS run if they're off a division loss and are playing a team with a winning record.  The Rams fit the bill.  I'm taking the points with the L.A. Rams on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Cleveland Browns on Sunday.  Tough spot for Houston.  They're off four straight big games and took a serious hit on the defensive side of the football with the loss of J.J. Watt, along with several bumps and bruises to all units on the defensive side of the football. Cleveland is 0-5 SU, but three of their losses came by a FG each.  The Browns have been outstanding against the run and in total yards allowed per game, where they rank 5th stingiest in both. The offense made the right move, benching rookie DeShone Kizer for 2nd year QB Kevin Hogan.  Kizer wasn't improving and Hogan came off the bench to complete 16 of 19 passes to earn the job.  Houston has next week off and this could be a tough spot to stay focused.  Cleveland enters on a 19-7-1 ATS run on the road against teams with a losing home record.  We believe the Browns are in for another close one giving us solid value with the big number.  I'm grabbing the points with the Browns, our Sunday Shocker.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the New Mexico Lobos on Saturday night.  We're getting value here with the road team.  Fresno State owns three wins on the season, but while Jeff Tedford's team may be improving from the last couple Bulldog versions, the fact is the wins came against three dreadful softies.  UNM is 3-2, also, and 2 points away from a 4-1 mark.  Their most impressive win came against Air Force, a 56-38 victory.  The Lobos outscored the Falcons 42-17 after halftime and rolled up 509 yards, including 363 yards rushing on 9 yards per carry.  New Mexico has had an extra week to prep for Fresno.  While the ground attack is going to be tough on the Bulldogs' defense, the Lobos' underrated defense will be well versed in slowing down FSU.  New Mexico's top-35 in both run defense and in total yards allowed per game.  We note that road teams averaging at least 5.25 yards per carry are on a 24-5 ATS run if the line is in the +3/-3 range and they're off a game where they ran for at least 6.25 yards per pop.  UNM fits the bill.  I'm backing New Mexico, our Shocker on Saturday night.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Michigan State on Saturday.  Minnesota's P.J. Fleck got off to a great start with the Gophers winning their first three games.  But as soon as the level of competition picked up, their deficiencies were magnified.  Minnesota has lost back-to-back games to Maryland and Purdue, giving up 31 points in each game, while getting out-gained by 218 yards.  The fact is, Minnesota QB Conor Rhoda struggles in the passing game, connecting on just 24 of 51 passes the last two games with 3 TDs and 3 INTs. The defense has been pushed around allowing 5.6 yards per carry to the Terps and 4.6 yards per carry to the Boilermakers.  Michigan State's off the big win over Michigan and we don't expect a letdown.  HC Mike Dantonio has been here before.  His team is decent on the ground, while the defense ranks 4th, 12th, and 12th, in total yards allowed, yards passing allowed, and yards rushing allowed.  The Spartans hold their opponents to 16.4 ppg.  One final note: we expect the Spartans to be able to pass the football when needed.  Mich State will face a Gophers' defense that has seen their last two opponents connect on 67% of their passes (43 of 64) for 461 yards, 4 TDs, and 2 INTs. MSU enters on an 18-6-2 ATS run on the road against teams with a winning home record and the road team is on a 4-0 ATS series run.  I'm laying the points with Michigan State, our Hammer release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Ohio State on Saturday.  Nebraska played their tails off in an emotional atmosphere in Lincoln last weekend, but eventually their lack of direction, lack of identity, and lack of coaching adjustments were too much to overcome in a 38-17 loss to Wisconsin.  The wheels seem "this close" to coming off. They won't be able to run the football against the Buckeyes, which means 3rd and long for QB Tanner Lee and that means INTs.  Defensively, the Huskers still haven't caught on to DC Bob Diaco's 3-4 base.  That's not a shocker since it can take a full year to learn the nuances of the 3-4, along with the fact Nebraska doesn't own the personnel to operate it properly.  Ohio State has scored 54 points or more in each of their last three games and beat this Nebraska team, 62-3 a season ago. They're on a 44-20-1 ATS run on the road, while the Huskers have dropped four in a row ATS at home.  I'm laying the points with Ohio State, our Big-10 Knockout.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with UAB on Saturday.  The Blazers are getting little respect from the folks "behind the counter" and we'll look to take advantage here.  UAB is not only a perfect 3-0 SU at home, but they're 4-1 ATS.  The Blazers even knocked off Louisiana Tech 23-22 as a double digit underdog.  You can't throw the football on UAB and they're at their best running the football on offense.  We like both qualities.  Especially with the pass defense facing a MTSU offense that can do nothing but pass the football.  Take away the aerial game and I'm betting the Blue Raiders will struggle.  MTSU is also suffering from a few key injuries, including starting QB Brent Stockstill (doubtful) who continues to nurse an injured collarbone. John Urzua has seen a lot of action behind center and has thrown more INTs (6) than TD passes (5).  In fact, he's thrown just 13 TDs with 14 INTs in his career at MTSU.  UAB enters on a 4-0 ATS run at home and a 4-0 ATS run in conference action. They're on a 6-1 ATS run, overall.  I'm backing undervalued UAB plus the points on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with New Mexico State on Saturday.  The Aggies are playing their third straight road game, but the line more than makes up for it, not to mention the opponent.  Georgia Southern won't be able to "keep up" in our opinion.  The Eagles are 0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS with the push coming in a 34-point loss to Auburn.  The offense ranks 117th in total yards per game and 123rd in ppg, averaging just over 15 points per contest.  NMSU owns one of the nation's most prolific pass offenses and will score against a defense allowing nearly 40 ppg.  The Aggies are 4-1-1 ATS this season, while the Eagles enter on a 1-7-1 ATS slide at home.  We also note that CFB road favorites are on a 33-12-1 ATS run if their opponent failed to cover their previous game.  We're laying the points with New Mexico State, our Road Warrior.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Panthers on Thursday.  We have a couple of hot teams meeting in Carolina tonight, but we believe the home team will emerge victorious.  Home teams have been the way to go on Thursdays, covering 14 of the last 21.  Home teams are also on an 8-1 spread run the last nine times on Thursday night football.  We don't bet on teams due to trends and angles, but this one tells the story on just how difficult it can be to travel to another team's home address on a short week. The Eagles have pressing issues up front on offense where they'll miss OLT Lane Johnson, out tonight due to a concussion.  The Eagles' offense did not fare well last season in games Lane Johnson missed.  At the same time, the Panthers won't have center Ryan Kalil, but they have been dealing with his injuries for a few weeks, it's nothing new.  Carolina QB Cam Newton lost favorite target Greg Olsen in week-2, but he's developed strong aerial relationships with Ed Dickson, Christian McCaffrey, and David Funchess.  The Panther passing game will lineup against the NFL's 29th ranked pass defense tonight.  Meanwhile, the Panthers' stop unit is top-6 in rushing, passing, and total yards allowed - a big step-up in level of competition from what the Philly offense has seen in their last three games (Giants, Chargers, Cardinals).  Besides the trends mentioned above, NFL teams are on a 26-7 ATS run off an outright win as an underdog, provided they and their current opponent are both playing .750 or better football.  I'm laying the points with the Panthers on Thursday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Eskimos on Monday afternoon.  Something has to give with these two teams struggling at the same time.  Edmonton has dropped six straight games after beginning the season 7-0.  Montreal has dropped seven in a row both SU & ATS.  But the Esks are a playoff caliber team, while the Als are playing out the string.  Montreal has allowed an average of 38 ppg during the losing streak. And they're 0-4 ATS this season in revenge of a road loss.  Edmonton is getting just what the doctor ordered in this one.  The Esks are the top offenisve unit in the league in total yards per game and yards passing per game.  Montreal is a disaster, ranked dead last in yards rushing allowed and second to last in points allowed per game.  Making matters worse, the Als' offense ranks second to last or last in the league in total yards, passing yards, and points scored.  We'll side with the chalk.  I'm laying the points with Edmonton on Monday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday. Green Bay is a banged-up on the offensive line and at RB where Ty Montgomery is doubtful and Jamaal Williams is expected to play, but less than 100% healthy.  WR Devante Adams is also questionable (concussion), and on defense, the team has been hit by nagging bumps and bruises to the LB corps.  However, the main reason we're backing the Cowboys, besides line value, is the fact they should be able to run the football against the Pack, who allow 111 yards rushing per game.  That's the Cowboys' desired game plan.  Run the football and take pressure of the passing game.  That's when Dak Prescott is at his best and we believe it'll be the difference in this game.  Dallas got the ground game going last week, rushing for 189 yards.  They're on a 7-0 ATS run, winning by an average score of 31-17, after rushing for at least 175 yards in their most recent game.  We'll back the 'Boys here.  I'm laying the points with the Dallas Cowboys, our Beatdown release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday.  Tough spot for the Bills who're on the road for the second straight game and the third time in their last four weeks. We had the Bills when they knocked-off the Denver Broncos, but that was a great spot to play against Denver.  The Buffalo offense has been one dimensional with the second worst passing game in the NFL, averaging just 171 yards per game.  The running game is better, but nothing to write home about, ranked 16th in the league.  The Bills have been doing it with defense, but we like the look of the Bengals with a new play-caller making a difference.  After a horrible output in week's one and two, the Bengals' offense has scored a combined 55 points the last two games and QB Andy Dalton is 46 of 57, 81% passing, with 498 yards, 6 TDs and ZERO interceptions.  Cincy will also be motivated looking to atone for their first two home games this season when they were outscored 33-9 by Baltimore and Houston.  The Bills roll into town on a 3-12 ATS slide on the road against defenses that hold the opposition to no more than 4.75 yards per play. Meanwhile, Cincy is on a 10-2 ATS run after covering two of three games, doing well with momentum.  And they're 7-2 ATS after holding opponents to less than 100 yards rushing.  I'm laying the points with the Bengals, our Mismatch on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Arizona on Saturday night.  We had the Buffaloes last weekend and cashed when they covered the number against UCLA.  But we were surprised Colorado couldn't do more on offense against the horrible UCLA defense that has failed to stop anyone. That's a scary situation for CU moving forward.  With their personnel losses and assistant coaching losses on defense before the season, we felt the Buffs wouldn't be in position to capture the Pac-12 South, but again, their last two games have left a lot to be desired on the offensive side of the football, also.  Arizona has had two weeks to prepare for CU and their two losses were "this close" to landing in the win column, with no shame in losing close games to Utah & Houston.  The Arizona defense is strong against the run and CU is not the same on the ground in 2017. If the Buffs can't run, they're in trouble with Steven Montez tossing six INTs to just 7 TDs this season.  In fact, Montez has a poor, 14 to 11, TD-INT ratio in his career.  Arizona is 8th in the nation on the ground and we believe they'll run the ball effectively, while slowing down the run on defense, putting pressure on the CU passing game.  The Buffs have covered just one of their last six home games and again, are overvalued.  Meanwhile, the road team has covered five in a row in this series.  I'm grabbing the points with Arizona, our Upset Special in the Pac-12.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Kansas State on Saturday.  The Texas offense has only looked strong, (from a balanced standpoint), in one game this season, a 56-0 win over San Jose State.  But we take nothing from that game as SJSU may be the worst FBS team in the nation.  We take more from Texas' lack of offensive output against Iowa State last Thursday night.  The Cyclones had a horrible game plan themselves, passing the ball deep downfield over and over.  Texas was never challenged, yet finished with just 312 total yards, which included a mediocre night from QB Shane Buechele, and a running game that average less than 3 yards per carry.  We also note Texas averaged just 1.9 yards per carry against a slightly banged-up USC defense.  Kansas State is terrific on defense and on the other side of the ball, run it well, averaging a 27th best 229 yards per game.  K-State held Vandy to 2 yards per carry in their other road game this season and we expect another stout effort here.  The Wildcats have covered eight of the last 10 meetings, while Texas is on a 1-7 ATS slide the week before the big rivalry game with Oklahoma.  I'm grabbing the points with Kansas State, my Road Warrior.

I'm laying the points with Houston on Saturday.  Nice revenge spot for the Cougars, but that's a small part of the equation.  Line value is obviously the main reason we make our plays on certain teams and the Cougars own the value in this one.  Houston has been a favorite of 21 or more in each of the last three meetings, including last year when they lost outright as a 23-point favorite.  While some faces have changed, including new HC Major Applewhite and no more Greg Ward at QB, the Cougars are still averaging over 280 yards passing per game.  But Houston has taken on the tougher slate, which includes a 19-16 win at Arizona and a tough 27-24 loss against an improved Texas Tech squad. SMU has had just one step-up game so far this season and the defense got clobbered, allowing 56 points in a 20-point loss to TCU.  SMU allowed 619 yards and 30 first downs.  They gave up over 5 yards per carry on the ground and a 24 of 30, 4 TDs & 0 INTs night through the air.  I'm not too crazy about SMU QB Ben Hicks who has completed just 54% of his passes after completing just 55% a season ago.  Hicks threw 15 INTs last season and while he's thrown just three this year, he's only faced one strong defense, throwing two against TCU.  His lack of accuracy and propensity to force throws means Houston could be in for a big pick or two in this one.  Our raw power numbers have Houston 11 points better than SMU in this contest, a big and rare gap for us.  We trust our power ratings and will back the Houston Cougars minus the points on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with West Virginia on Saturday.  TCU's value is gone thanks to the big win over Oklahoma State two weeks ago.  The Horned Frogs find themselves laying nearly two full TDs when our raw power ratings are four points lower even with a few Mountaineer defenders potentially banged-up for this contest.  But we like the deep WVU running game to keep this one tight throughout.  The ground attack, ranked 26th in the nation really opens things up for the nation's 7th ranked passing offense.  And let's not forget that TCU was out-gained in the win over Oklahoma State, allowing 499 yards. The Cowboys simply couldn't overcome a 4-turnover night.  Being overvalued is nothing new for TCU, which is why they're on a 1-10 ATS slide at home.  The Horned Frogs might gain a measure of revenge from last year's loss, but we are betting the Mountaineers will hang the number.  I'm taking the points with West Virginia, our Shocker. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Florida State on Saturday.  The Seminoles haven't been the same since losing to Alabama and losing star QB Deondre Francois in the process.  But this team is beyond battle-tested, having also played NC State and Wake Forest.  Big win last week against the Demon Deacons, finding a way to win on the road.  We feel the first win of the season will be a jumpstart for this team and expect another win here.  FSU has had to deal with injuries, but Miami has played a soft slate, facing Bethune Cookman, Toledo, and an overrated Duke squad. Miami actually finished with 5 fewer first downs than Duke, but took care of business when needed.  Their top RB, Mark Walton, is probable, but his ankle is not 100%.  FSU is stingy against the run...and the defensive backfield will be by far the best one Miami QB Malik Rosier has faced.  Defensively, the Hurricanes' secondary leaves a lot to be desired, ranked 92nd against the pass, which we believe will be "just what the doctor ordered" for the Seminoles offense.  The dog has covered 15 of the last 18 in this series and Florida State is on a 5-0 SU/ATS run when listed as the underdog.  I'm taking the points with Florida State, our DogPound release.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the New England Patriots on Thursday.  The last time the Pats started 2-2 was the 2014 season.  The defense looked suspect allowing 33 points in a 13-point loss to Miami and 41 points in a 27-point loss to Kansas City.  The very next week, the Patriots were a 2.5-point underdog to Cincy, but slammed the Bengals, 43-17. New England's defense looked just as bad in a couple games this season and the Pats are no longer the favorite to win the Super Bowl, falling behind Pittsburgh in Las Vegas books.  But they're facing a Tampa Bay defense ranked 31st against the pass.  Tom Brady and company ought to eat this defense up, whether Gronk is healthy enough to play or not.  Offensively, the Buccs are led by Jameis Winston, who continues to toss turnover-worthy passes game after game and already has a 3-INT game against the Vikings.  Winston has no help around him in the ground game to keep defenses honest.  The Pats enter on a 28-13 ATS run after allowing at least 30 points.  They're on a 5-0 ATS run on the road against teams with a winning record, and the Pats are 41-18-1 ATS off a SU loss.  We aren't giving up on the Pats just yet.  In fact, we're backing them here.  I'm laying the points with the Patriots, our Thursday Knockout.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Broncos on Sunday.  After disposing of the Titans in a fairly close battle and crushing the NY Jets, the Raiders came back to earth in a thumping at the hands of the Redskins.  Denver looked almost as sluggish in their outright loss in Buffalo.  But after the tough roadie, we expect Denver to bounce back at home. The fears and concerns some had regarding the Raiders' defense before the season, came to fruition when Kirk Cousins carved them up.  Offensively, we expect the Raiders to have some issues again.  One trusted stat site reported that Derek Carr is averaging a league-worst, 2.3 yards per pass under pressure and he was under pressure a lot on Sunday night.  That's scary news for Oakland facing Denver's outstanding rush ends, backed by a pair of elite corners. Denver enters on an 8-2-1 ATS run in the series.  They have also been an outstanding bankroll builder during the first half of the last couple seasons, covering 12 of 16.  I'm laying the points with the Broncos on Sunday, our KO release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the LA Chargers on Sunday, our Smackdown.  The Chargers were expected to be a darkhorse in the AFC West this season, but a tough 0-3 SU start has them at the bottom of the standings.  They actually out-gained KC last week and trailed by just 7 points, 17-10, with 2 minutes to go in the game, despite Philip Rivers looking like a turnover machine (3 INTs).  The Chargers are virtually two special teams plays away from a win in their first two games, and a couple of scrimmage plays away against KC from a possible 3-0 record.  Philly comes to town with a messy secondary, thanks in part to injuries.  The Eagles have allowed 266 yards passing per game, which ranks 26th in the NFL.  They have allowed their last two opposing QBs, Eli Manning and Alex Smith to connect on 56 of 75 passes, a 75% completion rate. Offensively, Carson Wentz has been good but not great and we believe he's in for a rough outing with his bruised offensive line matched up against the Chargers' outstanding rush ends.  The Eagles have covered just two of their last nine road games, while the Chargers have covered four straight ATS off a double digit home loss.  We cashed going against the Eagles last week and we'll do so again in week-4.  We'll back the Chargers, our Smackdown on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Titans on Sunday.  Houston came close at New England last week, but fell short when Tom Brady picked the defense apart on a game winning drive.  Deahaun Watson found plenty of holes in the Patriots' pass defense, which is still attempting to get on the same page.  The Pats made numerous mistakes in coverage. We highly doubt the fundamentally sound Titans will allow the same looks for Watson this week.  Offensively, Tennessee is moving defenses off the ball.  They ran the ball 36 times for 179 yards two weeks ago and another 35 times for 195 yards in last week's win over Seattle. The ground game takes pressure off Marcus Mariota and the passing game and we expect more success against a middle of the pack Houston defense.  But the biggest problem for Houston is the one dimensional offense, that runs well, but ranks 31st through the air.  Tennessee is 12-4 ATS after scoring at least 30 points in two straight games, while Houston has covered just 2 of 9 against teams that average at least 27 ppg under HC Bill O'Brien.  I'm backing Tennessee minus the points, our Road Warrior. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Northern Illinois, our Shocker Game of the Month.  Scheduling lies completely in favor of the Huskies in this one.  NIU had last week off after beating Nebraska in Lincoln.  And if he has to go again, they've had one more week to get QB Daniel Santacaterina more reps with the first team -- not that he's had any issues so far, completing 38 of 56, 68% of his passes with 3 TDs and just 1 INT. The NIU signal caller also has help in the offensive backfield from RB Jordan Huff, who topped 100 yards rushing against Nebraska and is averaging 6.84 yards per carry in his 238 attempts at NIU.  The defense has been fantastic against the run thus far and will face a one-dimensional SDSU offense that's all about the run.  The NIU defense ranks 19th against the run allowing just 98 yards rushing per game and they're 26th in total yards allowed.  Now the second half of the scheduling advantage.  The Aztecs are off three straight physically and emotionally tough football games, beating Arizona State, Stanford, and Air Force, winning the last two games on the final score of the game.  SDSU got by Stanford, scoring the game winning TD with less than 10 seconds to go, and they beat AFA with a 53-yard TD run with just over 5 minutes to go.  We had SDSU last week, but we'll go against them here.  NIU wouldn't mind exacting a little revenge for last year's 42-28 loss.  This Huskies' version is much better than the one that started 1-6 SU last season, including the loss to the Aztecs.  NIU is a true road warrior, currently on a 24-7-2 ATS run on the road.  They're 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine road games against teams with a winning home record.  I'm grabbing the points with Northern Illinois, our Shocker of the Month. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Colorado on Saturday night.  The next time the UCLA Bruins slow an opponent down will be the first time.  The Bruins' defense has allowed 44, 48, and 58 points to Texas A&M, Memphis, and Stanford.  And even though Hawaii "only" scored 23 points against UCLA, the Warriors out-gained the Bruins 515-505.  Besides allowing over 43 ppg, UCLA ranks 130th against the run and 125th in total yards allowed per game.  Colorado lost to Washington last weekend, trailing 17-10 with about 4 minutes left in the third before the wheels came off as turnovers did them in.  But the Buffaloes' defense held Josh Browning to 11 of 21 passing for 160 yards with a TD and an INT.  It was Browning's worst game of the season.  I expect Josh Rosen to get his numbers, but without a ground game (104th in the nation) UCLA is slightly easier to defend.  This number is simply too high compared to our power ratings. CU has covered six of their last seven road games, while the Bruins are on a 1-7 ATS September slide.  UCLA is on a 1-6 ATS slide when laying 3 1/2 to 10 points, including 0-2 ATS this season.  I'm taking the points with Colorado, our DogPound on Saturday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Coastal Carolina on Saturday.  CC did not fare too well last weekend in a loss to FCS Western Illinois.  But WIU is an undefeated top-20 ranked FCS team and Coastal was no doubt looking ahead to this week, their first Sun Belt contest. We are not only getting an over-adjustment on the spread, but the UL-Monroe defense is coming off an OT win against their rival, UL-Lafayette, where the defense was on the field for 90 plays.  UL-M allowed 231 yards on 49 carries and head into this one ranked 124th against the run, allowing 278 yards rushing per game.  Guess what Coastal Carolina does best?  Yes, run the football.  Coastal ranks 21st in the nation, averaging nearly 240 yards rushing per game.  They'll take their shots lining up and pounding the football at an already weary Warhawks' defense.  UL-M has covered just 7 of their last 26 home games.  This marks the first time since October 15, 2016, that UL-M has been installed as a favorite, losing outright, 40-34 as 10-point home chalk to Texas State.  In fact, the Warhawks have been home chalk just three times since October 25, 2014 and they lost all three outright.  I'm taking the points with Coastal Carolina, our Road Warrior on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Bowling Green on Saturday.  The Falcons are off to a 0-4 start, but this line has been over-adjusted, more than accounting for the slow start.  BG should be the favorite in this game and it's why we saw some underdog money midweek.  Akron is 1-3 SU and both teams have faced tough opposition.  But we feel BG will be getting "just what the doctor ordered," facing a Zips' team ranked 107th in total yards per game on offense, and 102nd in total yards allowed.  The Falcons numbers aren't pretty either, but we like the matchups in this head-to-head clash.  And while the Zips are 1-8 ATS as road chalk of 3 or less, the Falcons are on a 6-0 ATS run off two consecutive double digit road losses and they're on a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS run in this series.  I'm backing Bowling Green plus the points, our Hammer.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Minnesota on Saturday.  Cluster injuries to any position will make life tougher on the rest of a football team, but when the cluster injuries occur at the QB position the term takes on a whole new meaning.  We saw what losing their top two QBs meant to Maryland last week when the Terps were throttled by Central Florida.  Maryland expects to start Max Bortenschlager with the team's other three QBs sidelined by injury.  The young QB certainly struggled last week. I expect Maryland to attempt to get the ground game in gear, but they ran for only 42 yards on 37 carries with the passing game a non-factor.  The Terps defense allowed UCF 250 yards rushing on 6.4 yards per carry.  P.J. Fleck and his Golden Gophers must be champing at the bit.  Minnesota ranks #1 against the run and in ppg allowed and #5 in total yards allowed.  They're outstanding on the ground and are all about owning time of possession.  The Gophers own the ground game to milk the clock in the final quarter after building a lead.  Minnesota has had two weeks to prepare for the game, so adjusting to defending the new QB will not be an issue.  The Terps have covered just one of their last seven road games and one of their last six against teams with a winning record.  Meanwhile, P.J. Fleck-coached teams are fast starters, 13-4 ATS in their last 17 September games.  I'm laying the points with Minnesota, our Morning Massacre.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with USC on Friday night.  The Trojans are battle tested, while Washington State has had a pretty easy early season slate.  But the scary part for Cougar fans in this one is the fact their offensive line is allowing way too many sacks, and will face a Trojan defense that has been in the opposing backfield on a regular basis. USC has 11 sacks on the season, while Wazzu allowed 5 sacks to Boise alone, and 14 sacks on the season, overall. USC also owns a top shelf pass efficiency secondary and we do believe that combined with the pass rush, Luke Falk will be forced into a couple of mistakes.  Offensively, the best player on the field is USC QB Sam Darnold and the USC passing game is averaging over 306 yards per game without excluding the running game, which keeps defenses honest.  The Trojans enter on a 6-1 ATS run within the conference, while Washington State has dropped 5 in a row ATS against teams with a winning record. We're laying the points with USC, our Friday beatdown.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Cardinals on Monday night.  Dallas is looking to atone for last week's debacle in Denver, but this wasn't a sudden drop-off in offensive output.  The Cowboys have scored 19 or fewer points in five of their last seven regular season games. Teams have figured out how to slow down Dallas, it's just a matter of execution. Load up against the run and make QB Dak Prescott beat you with his arm.  One Denver defender even said they knew if they could stop the run Prescott wouldn't be able to beat them.  Because of this, Dallas is 24th in the league in yards rushing per game.  Arizona is 8th against the run.  The Cowboys have lost four straight ATS on the road. Meanwhile, Bruce Arians is 9-1 ATS as a home dog of seven points or less and 6-0 as a home dog of three points or less.  We believe the Cardinals have the talent in place to control this contest and we'll grab the points.  Arizona is our MNF Showdown.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the LA Chargers on Sunday.  The KC Chiefs simply don't fit the mode of a team that wins more than 8 or 9 games, but here they are at 2-0.  KC has been one of the most fortunate teams in the NFL the last two seasons, including garnering a league-best 30 takeaways going into this season.  They've also hovered around the top of the list in non-offensive touchdowns.  KC led New England 28-27 in week-1 with the Patriots driving, possessing the football near the KC 40. New England was stopped on downs and a few mistakes later and they fell victim. Last weekend, the Chiefs were out-gained by 62 yards, but beat the Eagles, 27-20. We feel the good fortune catches up this week against a Chargers' team that's two missed FGs away from a potential 2-0 record, themselves.  The talent is in place for Philip Rivers to lead his team to a decent season, but they need to stop the bleeding here.  LAC normally starts well, currently on an 11-4-2 ATS September run despite this year's 0-1-1 ATS start.  We'll back them here.  I'm taking the points with the Chargers on Sunday, our AFC West Beatdown.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the NY Giants on Sunday.  The G-Men have played a decent brand of defense in weeks one and two and we expect a solid outing here. In fact, we expect a better job at slowing the run.  The Eagles have some offensive line issues in this matchup. They're also banged-up on defense, especially hurting their depth at safety and corner.  As far as the Giants are concerned, dropped passes and the play of OLT Ereck Flowers have hurt the offense.  But the Giants are addressing the issue and will give Flowers more help in pass blocking.  I expect the best game of the season from the passing game now that ODB is healthier and Brandon Marshall steps up his game after a bad drop against the Lions that could have tied the game in the second half. Despite the issues, Eli Manning has completed 73% of his passes thus far. We note that the Giants are 10-2 ATS after rushing for less than 100 yards in two straight games and 4-0 ATS the last three seasons when rushing for 75 or fewer yards in two straight.  And best of all is the line adjustment in our favor.  If this game was played two weeks ago, the Eagles would have been a one-point favorite, according to my contact at CGT books in Las Vegas.  The Giants are 11-3-1 ATS off a double digit home loss and we like that trend to continue in a positive direction.  I'm taking the points with the NY Giants, our Shocker.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Buffalo Bills on Sunday.  Not an easy trip for Denver.  The Broncos are off the big win over Dallas, blowing out the Cowboys. They hung on against AFC West rival the LA Chargers in week-1, and the Broncos have a home date with another AFC West opponent next week when the Oakland Raiders roll into Denver.  The Broncos can be forgiven if their heads aren't completely focused on the Bills.  Buffalo can run the football and they have been outstanding on defense thus far, holding their first two opponents to a grand total of 21 points.  The Bills are second in the NFL in total yards allowed, equally strong against the pass and the run.  We believe they'll slow down the Denver ground game and force Trevor Siemian to win the game with his arm, something he hasn't had to do yet.  Buffalo is on a 15-7 SU & 14-8 ATS run at home with Tyrod Taylor at QB. The Bills have covered four straight meetings with Denver.  We're backing the Buffalo Bills plus the points, our DogPound on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Arizona State on Saturday night.  This one is all about line value with our Power Ratings a solid 5 points off the number.  Oregon is riding a hot streak, but all of a sudden the 42-35 win against struggling Nebraska doesn't look so hot, while winning at Wyoming means not nearly as much with the Cowboys obviously overvalued before the season kicked off. ASU is just 1-2 SU, but the three teams they've played have a combined record of 6-2 SU / 7-1 ATS.  And while losing to San Diego State felt bad for Sun Devil backers two weeks ago, that loss doesn't look too bad after watching the Aztecs knock off Stanford last week.  Arizona State has the firepower as far as the aerial game is concerned and we believe they will give Oregon's pass defense problems.  The Ducks have covered just 2 of their last 10 Pac-12 games, while Arizona State is on an 8-3 ATS run at home.  We'll trust our numbers and grab the points with Arizona State, our DogPound Crusher. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with San Diego State on Saturday.  The knee-jerk reaction and easy thing to do would be to back Air Force, believing the Aztecs are in for a letdown off the win over Stanford. We don't subscribe to a letdown under HC Rocky Long and we also believe part of the perception has been baked into this line.  The Falcons hung around at the Big House last week before losing 29-13 to Michigan.  The Air Force offense did next to nothing, especially in the passing game completing just 1 of 9 passes.  AFA is one dimensional, a likely problem against a SDSU defense holding opponents to 91 yards rushing per game.  SDSU held Stanford to 238 total yards just one week after holding Arizona State to 1.3 yards per carry on 31 attempts.  Rocky Long and his defensive staff know the AFA attack as well as anyone and we're betting there will be no letdown. We also expect SDSU's 21st ranked ground game will find holes against AFA's defense.  The Aztecs are on a 15-5-1 ATS conference run, while Air Force has covered just one of their last seven conference games.  And finally, SDSU has covered six of the last seven meetings.  We're laying the points with San Diego State, our Road Warrior.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Appalachian State on Saturday afternoon.  Wake Forest is off to a great start, but this is a very tough situation, taking on an upset minded Mountaineers' team right before facing Florida State.  App State was a bit of a public dog when they faced Georgia in their first game of the season, but couldn't overcome the difference in pedigree, not to mention, UGA owns a very good team in 2017.  The ASU defense didn't play badly, holding Georgia to 368 total yards and just 11 of 20 passing.  Wake owns a good ground game, but the passing game is mediocre and will have issues against the ASU defense.  Bottom line:  The public jumped ship when ASU failed them ATS in their opener against UGA and we're now getting solid value with the home underdog that I had favored in this one before the season began.  This is an over-adjustment in our eyes and we'll grab the points with Appalachian State, our Shocker.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Navy on Saturday.  The Cincinnati Bearcats are in a tough spot, off a fortunate win over Miami-Oh in an in-state clash. Cincy trailed Miami, 17-6 with less than 5 minutes to go in the fourth quarter before a Miami meltdown allowed the Bearcats to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.  Cincinnati scored the game winning TD on a pick-6 with 1:40 to go in the game.  It was obviously a huge win for the Bearcats and now they must gear-up for an offense they don't see. With UC and Navy playing in different divisions, this marks the first time the teams have met since the AAC was formed. Tough to get ready for an option you have never seen.  Navy was off last week after beating Tulane, 23-21 two weeks ago (we won with Tulane plus points). But it marked the 5th time Tulane had faced an option in three years, including having seen Navy.  And we should note Cincy ranks 88th against the run.  Meanwhile, the Cincy offense ranks 111th through the air, 113th on the ground and 124th in total yards per game.  The Middies are on a 14-4 ATS run at home and they start well, currently on a 6-1 ATS September run the last 2+ years.  I'm laying the points with Navy on Saturday, our Main Event. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing Miami-Ohio on Saturday afternoon.  Miami-Oh blew one last week. The Redhawks led Cincinnati 17-6 with less than five minutes to go in the game before falling apart, including giving up a pick-6 for the loss with about 90 seconds left in the contest.  Miami HC Chuck Martin called it one of the worst losses in his career.  But the team has reportedly responded like they have a chip on their shoulder for this week's game at Central Michigan (we waited to find out before posting).  The Chips are down a bit this season, escaping Rhode Island with a 30-27 OT win as a 5 TD favorite.  They beat pathetic Kansas, then got whipped 41-17 by Syracuse. Central Michigan is fairly one-dimensional on offense, not much of a running game.  The Chips are horrible on defense, ranked 117th in total yards allowed per game, equally bad against the run and pass, while playing against soft opposition.  I expect the CMU defense o be "just what the doctor ordered" for the Miami offense.  The Redhawks have covered 6 of their last 7 against teams that allow at least 4.75 yards per carry.  Meanwhile, CMU has covered just 3 of their last 13 games, overall.  Miami won last year's meeting 37-17, out-gaining the Chips by nearly 150 yards.  I expect more of the same on Saturday.  I'm backing Miami-Ohio, our Afternoon Annihilator.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Idaho on Saturday afternoon.  We went against Idaho and cashed with UNLV a few weeks ago because the Rebels were undervalued after losing to Howard.  Idaho has now lost two straight and the Vandals are the undervalued team heading to Mobile to face South Alabama.  Idaho covered last week in a 37-28 loss to Western Michigan in a game the Sun Belt entry led 28-19 early in the fourth quarter.  The defense was outstanding as was the Idaho ground game (5 yards per carry) as they out-gained WMU.  I believe the solid play carries over to this conference tilt.  South Alabama allowed 91 points to their first two opponents before a meaningless 45-0 win over Alabama A&M last time out.  USA is averaging just 320 total yards per game and rank 101st on the ground.  The passing game has struggled too with QB Cole Garvin nursing an injured ankle (questionable).  Idaho isn't on par with USA's first two opponents, but they were good enough to nearly win on the road against Western Michigan and they are the better team in this matchup.  Idaho has covered seven straight conference games, while South Alabama is on a 4-17 ATS Sun Belt slide.  We'll back Idaho plus the points, our Hammer on Saturday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Blue Bombers on Friday night.  Ottawa has gone on a nice run after a slow start to the season, but the run is likely being derailed by injuries.  The Red Blacks will be missing their top two QBs in all likelihood with Drew Tate and Trevor Harris both nursing injured shoulders.  Enter former Arizona Cardinals QB Ryan Lindley.  I don't believe he fits the CFL game well, completing just 7 of 14 passes when called upon last time out, but mostly because he's not much of a threat with his legs.  Lindley is averaging just 1.5 yards per carry on 36 carries this season. Winnipeg is 8-3 on the season, including 4-1 SU at home and need a win to stay within earshot of division leading Calgary.  The Bombers have scored at least 33 points in each of their last four home games, averaging nearly 40 ppg.  We don't believe the battered Ottawa offense will be able to keep up.  We're laying the points with Winnipeg on Friday night.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm grabbing the points with the 49ers on Thursday night.  The Rams opened the season well with a win over the rudderless Colts who were playing their first game of the season without Andrew Luck, and even worse, with Scott Tolzien behind center.  Things didn't go so well last week for the Rams when their run defense was torched for 229 yards on 5.8 yards per carry by the Redskins.  We do believe SFO will be able to run the football after watching Carlos Hyde have his way with the tougher Seattle defense.  Hyde ran for 124 yards on 15 carries.  In fact, if SFO receivers hung onto the football, the Niners likely enter this one off a win over Seattle. Instead, SFO has scored just 12 points on four FGs in two games.  But NFL teams are on a 34-11 ATS run if they scored less than 10 points in back-to-back games, averaging 24 ppg in those 45 contests.  SFO is also on a 4-0 ATS run within the NFC West, while the Rams enter on a 1-8 ATS slide in their last nine games after last week's loss.  I'm backing the Niners in a spot where I believe they'll find success on the ground. SFO plus the points is our Thursday Hammer.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Miami Dolphins, our DogPound Crusher.  The Dolphins were off last week due to Hurricane Irma, but they handled it as well as a team could spending quite a bit of time on the west coast, now acclimated to their situation.  They practiced all week in Los Angels and Oxnard and should be fresh but ready to go.  We expect Jay Cutler to play like he did the last time he was under the tutelage of Adam Gase, which turned out to be his finest season as a pro. We also expect the Dolphins' offense to be able to control the game just like Denver did on Monday night.  The Chargers open their new soccer digs, but covered just 5 of their last 21 home games before this season.  They're also on a 0-5-1 ATS slide in their last six games.  I'm taking the points with the Dolphins, our week-2 DogPound.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Steelers on Sunday.  Pittsburgh was a little rusty on offense last week and it was no surprise as Le'Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant finally got on the field with Big Ben.  I expect the offense to be in gear against Minnesota.  While the Vikings were the better team in their MNF win over New Orleans, let's also remember they allowed four drives of 73 yards or more and four drives of a dozen plays or more to an offense without Brandon Cooks (Patriots) and without Willie Snead (suspension), while playing with a rookie at OLT.  Meanwhile, the fierce Steeler defense will face a banged-up QB in Sam Bradford, who is suffering from knee issues heading into Sunday. Minnesota has covered just one of their last six road games and we'll back the chalk here.  I'm laying the points with the Steelers, our Best Bet KO.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Bears on Sunday.  Tampa Bay had last week's game postponed and had to deal with a lot of off the field issues due to Hurricane Irma.  But the main reason we're playing the other side in this one is because we aren't as enamored with the Buccaneers' offense as most.  Jameis Winston threw 33 INTs over the last two seasons and his turnover-worthy-throws keep him far from the top starting QBs in the league according to PFF.  The starting offense was stuck in neutral this preseason, the offensive line is mediocre at best, and Winston won't have RB Doug Martin, who is serving a suspension.  John Fox has revamped his secondary and we believe they'll matchup very well with the Buccs' offense.  Fox-coached teams are on a 10-2 ATS run on the road after allowing at least 300 yards passing in their previous game, the situation here. Offensively, the Bears will play ball control, running behind a stout offensive line, taking pressure off the passing game.  Chicago's also on a 6-2 ATS run overall, while Tampa has been a slow starter, covering just 3 of their last 12 September games.  I'm taking the points with the Bears, our Road Warrior.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Louisville Cardinals on Saturday night.  Revenge is an overused term in sports betting, but we do believe Louisville is going to gain a measure of it tonight. The Cardinals came within a few yards of possibly beating the Deshaun Watson-led Tigers in a 42-36 loss last season. Clemson's defense was very good last season, overall, and can be dominant again, (ask Auburn), but just like last year, Jackson is the great equalizer. New Clemson QB Kelly Bryant is a heady signal caller, but he's no Watson, at least not yet, and we don't think his offense will be able to overcome Louisville's.  The best thing we like about Louisville this season is Lamar Jackson's accuracy.  The Heisman winner is connecting on 65% of his passes, about 10 percentage points higher than last year.  We note that home teams with a returning starting QB are on a 54-27 ATS run if they're off a season where they averaged at least 200 yards rushing per game and their opponent has a new starting QB.  We also note that under HC Dabo Swiney, Clemson is just 1-8 ATS as road chalk of seven or less, outscored by an average of 26-20.  We're taking the points with Louisville, our Smackdown on Saturday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Kentucky on Saturday.  South Carolina is 2-0, but it's not due to great play on either side of the line of scrimmage.  The defense has given up an average of 330 yards passing per game and 463.5 total yards per game and the offense is barely topping 300 yards per contest, unable to run or pass the football with consistent success.  SC was outgained by 258 yards in their 35-28 win over NC State, rushing for 31 yards on 21 carries.  And they were outgained by 64 yards in last week's win over Missouri.  They do own a +4 turnover margin and have a couple of special teams TDs.  Kentucky's run defense should win the battle up front, turning SC into a one-dimensional offense and that's a major advantage for the Wildcats.  Kentucky is on a 6-1 ATS run in SEC action and have covered four straight meetings.  I'm taking the points with Kentucky, our Hammer.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Kansas State on Saturday.  Just about everybody who's anybody is back for K-State this season and QB Jesse Ertz is getting it done through the air, while also keeping defenses honest with his feet and ability to escape pressure.  Ertz is averaging nearly 14 yards per pass attempt, while connecting on 70.3% of his passes. Both teams are stepping up in class of opponent this week, but we believe the 'Cats will be more capable of handling it.  Vandy would like to grind it out a bit, but they ran for 2.2 yards per carry against MSTU in opening week action. They had to rely on arm of QB Kyle Shurmur, who has yet to fave any pressure.  That changes this week. We expect the K-State defense to hold the Vandy offense in check, while the Wildcat offense does the rest.  K-State averages 5.9 yards per carry, while Vandy averages just 3.5. We note that CFB teams averaging at least 4.8 yards per carry are on a 32-9 ATS run if they out-rushed their previous opponent by at least 125 yards and are facing a team that runs for 3 to 3.5 yards per carry.  Both teams fit the bill and K-State out-rushed Charlotte by nearly 200 yards last week.  The 'Cats also react well on the road off two straight home games, covering 15 of the last 20.  I'm laying the points with Kansas State, our Road Warrior.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Tulsa on Saturday.  There ought to be a few points in this one with these two offenses going at it, but one of the differences -- Tulsa has already faced Oklahoma State. Toledo will not be the stiffest test the Golden Hurricane have had so far this season.  But Tulsa will be a step-up in class for the Rockets.  Toledo allowed Nevada 4.5 yards per carry last time out and we feel the defense will have a rough time with the prolific Tulsa ground game that even gained 244 yards against the Cowboys in week-one.  Tulsa has averaged nearly 45 ppg over the last dozen games.  They're a tough "out," having covered 12 of their last 15 on the road and Tulsa is taking aim at their 7th straight cover against teams with a winning record.  Toledo remains overvalued at home where they have dropped four in a row ATS.  I'm taking the points with Tulsa, our Shocker. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Minnesota on Saturday.  This reminds me a little of MTSU's first game of the season when Vanderbilt really took it to them in a 28-6 Commodores win.  We said on our ESPN radio show that Vandy would power through the Blue Raiders and they did. Vandy out-gained MTSU 372-240 and held Brent Stockstill to 18 of 31 passing for 166 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT.  The Golden Gophers were a little sluggish in week-one, P.J. Fleck's first game as HC, ending in a win over Buffalo.  But Minnesota found their rhythm last weekend in a 48-14 pounding at Oregon State. When Fleck-coached teams find their rhythm they are dangerous, covering 14 of the last 18 after out-gaining their previous opponent by at least 125 yards.  Gopher QB Demry Croft is a bit banged-up, but it doesn't matter because Fleck had settled on Conor Rhoda, who has completed more than 65% of his passes this season, while averaging over 11 yards per attempt. Rhoda doesn't throw the ball often, but he will stretch the MTSU defense, allowing running lanes to open up for the Gopher ground game.  MTSU could also be hamstrung with QB Stockstill listed as questionable with a shoulder injury. MTSU is just 2-6-1 ATS off a SU win and we'll go against them here.  I'm laying the points with Minnesota, our KO release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the LA Chargers on Monday night.  We like the way the Chargers' offensive line matches up against the battered and bruised Denver defensive front.  LAC will test deep waters at times in this one, but it's no secret the Chargers want to establish the run and the use of TE Hunter Henry.  We feel they have the advantage in both with LB Brandon Marshall struggling last season in yards allowed after contact, ranked 51st out of 60 qualified LBs in run-stop percentage, as reported.  We also note that Henry should create major problems for Denver over the middle. LAC also has an advantage when Denver has possession of the football.  We especially like the Chargers front-line matched-up against Denver rookie OLT Garett Bolles, who has major potential, but we expect to be a liability for the Broncos tonight.  We believe the Bolts have the edge on both sides of the line of scrimmage and they have been at their money-making best in the situations they're in tonight.  LAC have covered five straight week-one games and they're on a 10-4 ATS run on the road.  Speaking of the road, the visiting team in this series is 10-3-1 ATS the last 14 meetings.  We're backing the Chargers, our MNF Showdown.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday.  While the Cardinals disappointed last year and finished below .500, it wasn't much of a debate that they were actually a better team than the Lions.  Detroit made the postseason, but finished with a negative points differential, while Arizona averaged 3.5 ppg more than they allowed. Arizona is healthy on both sides of the line for this one, while the Lions' defense is an absolute mess with six players ruled out due to injuries and suspensions. The biggest loss is DE Kerry Hyder.  The Lions also lost OT Taylor Decker, who was expected to be a key cog up front.  The Cards have been "money" in the early going of late, covering six of their last eight September games.  Detroit enters on a 5-game ATS losing streak. These teams met four straight years from 2012 through 2015 and while some names have changed, the Cardinals won and covered all four, including a 42-17 win in Detroit two seasons ago.  We're betting Arizona makes it five straight. I'm laying the points with the Cardinals, my week-1 Smackdown.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Titans on Sunday.  The Raiders are once again one of the hottest tickets in Las Vegas sports books as the public cannot get enough of them.  However, Tennessee is one of the teams on our most improved list.  Tennessee won eight of their final 12 games last season, including wins over the Broncos, Chiefs, and Packers and they've suffered 11 defeats by eight points or less over the last two seasons, coming close to a postseason berth with last year's 9-7 SU mark.  The offensive line has been bolstered in the off-season, while the defense gains needed talent and experience in the secondary with Logan Ryan and Johnathan Cyprien signing on. Offensively, QB Marcus Mariota already owned protection and a decent ground game and the WR corps just got more diverse and deeper with the selection of Corey Davis with the 5th pick in the 2017 draft.  Oakland is a squad that could challenge in the AFC this season, but we feel they're overvalued from a betting standpoint and their leaky defense will be exploited in week-one. I'm laying the points with the Titans on Sunday, our Knockout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Auburn, our CFB Hammer.  The Auburn Tigers gave the Deshaun Watson-led Clemson offense to 19 points in last season's hard-fought 19-13 Clemson win.  New Clemson QB Kelly Bryant led his team to an easy win last week over Kent State, but Auburn HC Gus Malzahn owns the defensive talent to once again stand-up to the Clemson attack that's shy of where it was last year under Watson.  New Auburn QB Jason Stidham (Baylor transfer) got a chance to shake off the rust last week in a 41-7 win over Georgia Southern.  Stidham played well for the most part and the offense rolled-up 535 yards on 6.8 yards per play.  All that offense in week-1 for both teams, but we expect the Auburn defense to slow the Clemson attack for the second straight season.  Auburn owns serious depth at the skill positions, so missing a RB is not tough to overcome. Auburn has been "money," entering on a 10-4-1 ATS run in their last 15 games. We'll back them here.  We're taking the points with Auburn, our Hammer release.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with TCU on Saturday.  The legit line in Nevada opened TCU -2.5.  Off-shore books opened TCU as much as a 2 1/2 point underdog. Bad line!  TCU lost to Arkansas in double-OT last season, despite out-gaining the Hogs 572-403.  TCU RB Kyle Hicks may not play, but the offense is superior to Arkansas' attack and the Razorbacks' defense had no answer for Frogs' QB Kenny Hill, who threw for 377 yards on 36 of 56 passing, while running for 93 yards in last year's meeting.  In fact, they had no answer for most teams on their schedule, allowing an FBS-worst 39 rushing TDs.  Arkansas also allowed almost 260 yards rushing per game in SEC play and the defense is even younger this season.  The fact TCU is better up front on defense than when these teams met last year will be the difference in the contest.  Arkansas QB Austin Allen played poorly down the stretch in 2016 with 7 TD passes and 9 INTs and we saw another pick last week with just one TD in a win over an out-manned Florida A&M team.  Arkansas is 0-6 ATS off a SU win and they have covered just one of their last five, overall.  We'll lay it with TCU, our Revenge GOM. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Indiana on Saturday afternoon.  We saw the Hoosiers give the heavily favored Buckeyes all they could handle for a good portion of the game.  The contest was definitely closer than the final score would indicate.  The job should get a bit easier for the defense this week, facing an offensive line that couldn't generate a running game in last year's debacle of a season. The Cavaliers have a couple of talented WR's, but pass-blocking is going to be a negative. Meanwhile, Indiana should have little trouble throwing downfield against a weak secondary.  The Cavaliers have dropped five straight games ATS, while when Indiana gets hot they have stayed so of late, currently on a 5-1 ATS run after throwing for more than 280 yards in their previous game. I'm laying the points with Indiana, our Best Bet KO.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Tulane over Navy on Saturday.  Willie Fritz employs his own version of triple-option offense at Tulane.  But the Green Wave spent more than one week prepping for what they'll attempt to defend on Saturday. In fact, Fritz had his defensive coaches spend time this summer coaching-up the defense specifically for this opponent. Tulane has also has the experience of facing Navy in each of the last two seasons, along with games against Georgia Tech and Air Force two seasons ago.  They're about as familiar with defending option football as any team in the nation.  Last year, I had Tulane's offense graded lower than this year's version, yet the Green Wave ran for 5.1 yards per carry against Navy and even led the game, 14-13 with less than three minutes to go, before Navy pulled out the 21-14 win.  Junior QB Jonathan Banks, a Kansas State transfer has the ability to run the football 20 times, while completing a decent rate of passes.  But again, the fact Tulane's defense will see Navy for the third straight season and an option attack for the 5th time in three seasons gives them a huge advantage.  I believe we're in for a close one for the second straight season, allowing Tulane to hang the number.  I'm taking the points with Tulane, our Road Warrior on Saturday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Arkansas State on Saturday.  The Huskers are entering yet another new era, so to speak.  They have revamped their defense, hiring former UConn coach Bob Diaco, who has installed a 3-4 base defense.  But the offensive line could very well have issues both pass blocking and run blocking in this one.  Nebraska has some new parts up front and will look to protect a more pass-oriented QB in Tanner Lee.  We are not yet sold on the Tulane-transfer when it comes to running this offense.  Arkansas State expects to be tough in the front-six on defense and should hold the Huskers in-check.  We don't believe Nebraska will be ready to attack the young ASU secondary.  While the ASU offense left something to be desired last year, HC Blake Anderson has gotten more involved with this year's offensive attack. Arkansas State has grown used to going bowling in recent years and won't be intimidated by a program that stopped intimidating teams years ago.  Nebraska dropped four of their final six games last year and covered just three of their final nine games.  They also have a date with Oregon in Eugene next week and if Diaco's defense and even the Lee-led offense can get by ASU without revealing too much, they certainly will. ASU enters on a 7-2 ATS run, while Nebraska is just 4-8-2 ATS in their last 14 as home chalk.  They covered each of their first two home games last season against Fresno State & Wyoming, but the wide-margin final scores were quite misleading as was their very fortunate home win (push) over Oregon in week-3. This one is tougher than expected for the home team and we're grabbing the points with Arkansas State, our Road Warrior. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.