I'm laying the runs line with Houston in Saturday's game-2 matchup between Brad Peacock and Seth Lugo.  Five of the last six times the Mets have lost with Lugo on the mound, you would have cashed playing the runs line with their opponent.  Lugo has been smacked for a 6.85 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and a 1.83 HR's per 9 IP ratio in his last four starts. It's hard to imagine he'll get the kind of run support to hang around in this one with the Mets off a weak offensive month, finished August ranked 28th, 29th, and 28th, in team batting average, OBP, and OPS.  Lugo is expected to be on a pitch count for the second straight start (likely 80 pitches give or take), which means there's a chance Houston gets to the Mets' shaky pen even earlier than they normally would.  Brad Peacock has gone in the opposite direction in his last four starts, posting a 2.83 ERA & 1.30 WHIP.  He's also 7-1 in his last 13 starts with a 3.10 ERA.  His team is a perfect 10-0 against the runs line in their last 10 wins with the righthander on the mound.  I'm betting on more of the same.  I'm laying the runs line with the Astros in game-2 of Saturday's double-header.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday afternoon. Big-time revenge for the 'Cats for one of the uglier losses of 2016.  Kentucky jumped out to a 35-10 lead with less than a minute to go in the first half, before Southern Miss scored 34 straight points, winning 44-35 as a 3 1/2 point underdog. We remember it well, because we were on Southern Miss.  But the Golden Eagles are breaking in a new QB and have seven new starters on defense.  Nick Mullens is gone and the Eagles are left with a pair of underwhelming signal callers. So Miss is also replacing three starters on the offensive line, two of which are underclassmen.  Two of the seven starters lost on defense included their leading tackler and best pass rusher. Look for a confident and run-heavy Kentucky offense to push So Miss around on Saturday with arguably the best offensive line in the SEC East paving the road.  The ground game should lead to strong production from the aerial game behind dual-threat QB Stephen Jonson and a group of talented WR's who'll be tough covers for the So Miss secondary.  The 'Cats covered each of their last four road games, while the Golden Eagles are on a 1-5-1 ATS slide at home.  I'm laying the points with the Kentucky Wildcats, our Knockout release. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Troy over Boise State on Saturday afternoon.  The Trojans will line-up against a Bronco defense that will attempt to be more aggressive this season, but I just don't believe they have the parts to make great leaps and bounds.  INT's by the Bronco secondary were non-existent last season and while they'll likely load-up to slow the Trojan run early-on in this one, Troy has the weaponry in the passing game to make them pay, and eventually play an honest brand of defense.  Troy QB Brandon Silvers leads a fast-paced attack with a strong receiving corps that will have Boise on their heels.  Offensively, I don't believe BSU can pull away.  They're good on the offensive side of the football, but won't be able to shake the Trojans. BSU enters on a 0-9 ATS slide at home. Meanwhile, Troy enters on a 5-1 ATS September run and they have covered 9 of their last 12 on the road.  For what it's worth, Boise was having a tough time generating interest and ticket sales for their opener as recently as early this week.  Normal home value may not be there for this one, which is not a reason to fade Boise, but an interesting note.  I'm grabbing the points with Troy, our Shocker on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Colorado State on Friday night.  We certainly like teams playing a second game over one that's playing their first of the season when the programs are relatively close.  We saw CSU's offense kick into high gear in the second half of their 58-27 win over Oregon State. They were able to work out first game kinks. Colorado overachieved last season and while the offense has a lot of familiar faces, they do have a new starting QB with Sefo Liufao's departure.  Defense is where this team will be hurt the most.  CU has to replace one of the best DC's in college football with Jim Leavitt's departure, taking three assistants with him.  Making matters even worse, the Buffs have eight new starters to break in.  The defense will be tested all night long by the Rams' offensive attack.  CSU has been a money-maker, on a 35-17-1 ATS run in their last 53 games.  They're on a 14-3 ATS run after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  I expect Colorado State to snap their two-game head to head losing streak, covering at the very least.  I'm taking the points with Colorado State, my DogPound on Friday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm grabbing the points with the Arizona Cardinals on Saturday.  We expect to see Arizona's starters playing into the third quarter by all indications, although Carson Palmer will likely be done by halftime.  We like the Cardinal QB rotation in the second half, beginning with Drew Stanton who may see some time with regulars before giving away to the preseason-capable Blaine Gabbert. Bruce Arians is half-a-point away from a 6-1-1 ATS run as a preseason underdog.  Atlanta HC Dan Quinn hasn't put a lot of stock into the so called Dress Rehearsal week.  His Falcons are 0-2 in these games and he has sat his starters early-on in each of the last two preseasons.  We don't expect to see Matt Ryan for more than a quarter and we expect a departure time much earlier than most of their 1st string counterparts.  We'll back the Arizona Cardinals on Saturday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the KC Chiefs on Friday night.  I know and understand that Pete Carroll has a strong record in preseason action.  But we're getting a decent amount of points here and we get the use of Kansas City starters through three full quarters and talented rookie Pat Mahomes in the fourth, according to reports out of KC.  And there's also talk Alex Smith will get his chances to test deep waters with speedster Tyreek Hill, adding a dimension that hasn't always been at Smith's disposal. Seattle will play their regulars for a good chunk of the game, also, but we believe there's a premium with this particular number, thanks to public perception and the knowledge of Seattle's preseason success.  Seattle lost 18-11 to Minnesota last year in week-3's dress rehearsal.  We backed the Vikings then and we'll go against the Seahawks again. I'm grabbing the points with the KC Chiefs, our KO on Friday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the NY Yankees on the runs line with Luis Severino over Jordan Zimmermann.  Severino has been spectacular on the road in 2017.  The young righty has posted a 2.40 ERA & 1.08 WHIP in 13 road starts this season, to go along with a 0.59 HR's per 9 IP ratio.  Severino has allowed just 68 hits in 82 2/3 road IP, while striking out 98 batters.  Each of New York's last seven wins with Severino on the mound covered the runs line, where their average margin of victory is more than 3 rpg.  The Yanks are averaging over 5 rpg in road night games against righthanders and should have little trouble with Jordan Zimmermann.  The right-hander has had it rough this season, especially in his last two outings, allowing 14 earned runs, 18 hits, and 2 home runs in just 8 2/3 IP.  His season-long overall ERA is closing in on 6.00, which is currently his home ERA, along with a .302 BAA.  We note that the Tigers have allowed an average of 5.9 rpg in Zimmermann's last eight home starts.  They're 3-13 in their last 16 games and all 13 losses came by two runs or more, a perfect 0-13 against the runs line.  I expect more of the same and I'm backing the Yankees on the runs line on Wednesday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the NY Giants on Monday night.  Whether the starters or second and third units are on the field, the G-Men have a distinct advantage on offense in tonight's contest.  Their interior offensive line is one of the most talented in the NFL, while the Browns are a mess on the interior defensive front.  Thanks to multiple reasons, including a couple of injuries, the Browns D-line will feature several young players throughout this one, making them susceptible all four quarters. That's just the start.  Cleveland's offensive line is also far from healthy, especially at OLT where the top-2 players are expected to miss Monday's game.  Rookie Rod Johnson is being thrown into the starting role and will likely have to play extended time at OLT.  We also note they're shallow at OLG.  Defensively, the Giants own one of the best backfields in the league and we believe the secondary, combined with the advantages up front, will prove too much for the potential rotation of Osweiler (starter), Kessler, Kizer, and Hogan. You don't always get potential trench advantages for an entire four quarters, but we feel we have close to that in this one and those advantages point to New York.  I'm backing the NY Giants, our Monday Showdown.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the KC Chiefs on Saturday. We went against the Chiefs last week and cashed a KO with the 49ers.  We knew from all reports the Chiefs would play the starters for a short time, including Alex Smith, turn things over to Pat Mahomes, and then let the deep reserves get a lot of second half action.  KC's regulars dominated on both sides of the line of scrimmage before the reserves gave away the lead.  This week, we expect to see a little more of Alex Smith and the starters, and Pat Mahomes has been promoted to 2nd string, which means his time on the field will not only increase, but he'll be surrounded by a few more regulars.  Mahomes has practiced with the 2nd team since Sunday.  In all, KC has a nice preseason QB rotation.  Cincinnati won last week after trailing Tampa Bay at the intermission.  There isn't a QB battle in the slightest as of course, Andy Dalton has the top job.  Defensively, the regulars struggled at times against the Buccs and we believe they'll find the going tough when KC's offense is on the field.  We like both sides of the line of scrimmage for KC in this one and expect the regulars and reserves to take care of business.  I'm backing the KC Chiefs, the Best Bet Knockout on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Titans on Saturday afternoon.  Carolina's regulars played well for the most part in the win over Houston.  But their defensive depth took a beating on the ground and they now have to face a quality Tennessee run-based offense that will be looking to kick-start momentum after last week's 7-3 loss to the Jets.  I do expect the Titans to flourish on the ground when the Panthers begin their defensive rotations.  And while we expect to see more of Marcus Mariota, Cam Newton is likely to sit again, or play quite sparingly at the very most, according to reports out of Panther camp.  Tennessee is expected to have one of the top offenses in the NFL this season and after last week's glorified scrimmage, I believe we'll see more of the true attack in week-2.  I'm laying the points with the Titans, our Mismatch release. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the SF 49ers on Friday night, our KO release.  The Niners have a new HC in Kyle Shanahan, a definite upgrade over the previous regime.  Shanahan is arguably the best offensive mind in the NFL and we expect improved play this regular season. The new DC is Robert Saleh, who's bringing a Seahawk-like 4-3 base.  The team may not win more than six games, but it will be an improved season and we will see the beginnings of what's to come next year. I like the QB rotation in preseason week-1 and expect a strong night against a Chiefs' defense that'll be vanilla for the most part, going through the motions.  Word is, the 49ers will play quite a few regulars opening night. Shanahan has stated he wants to set the tone out of the blocks and and we certainly don't mind geting more than a FG.  We'll back the SF 49ers plus the points, our KO release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the NY Giants on Friday night.  This contest has quite a few ingredients we use for our NFL preseason recipe.  Eli Manning has nothing to prove and may not play.  But the Giants have a battle for Eli's backup between Geno Smith and Josh Johnson.  Both have experience, and Smith, for all his weaknesses, is reportedly having a strong camp.  He won't face any exotic defensive schemes in this one either, which eliminates his issues with his ability to read complicated pre-snap adjustments.  Smith and Johnson will face a Pittsburgh secondary reportedly undergoing changes as they implement more man coverage.  We also note that Giants' brass have gone on record with their desire to improve their offensive numbers.  Meanwhile, Mike Tomlin, once a preseason virtual automatic play, has just 3 wins in the Steelers' last 17 preseason games.  I'm laying the points with the Giants, our Friday Smash.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the runs line with the Mariners with James Paxton and Tyler Skaggs doing battle.  Seattle has been a runs line winner in all 13 games they have won with Paxton on the hill.  The lefty has allowed just 8 earned runs and 36 base runners in his last seven starts, spanning 45 1/3 IP, for a 1.59 ERA & 0.79 WHIP.  Paxton has owned the Angels in his career and this season has been no different.  Not a single current player on the Angels' roster has hit better than .250 against Paxton and the southpaw has held Mike Trout to a .136 batting average in 22 at-bats with no homers and not a single RBI.  Tyler Skaggs hasn't seen a lot of action this year or last, taking the starting rubber just 16 times.  The Angels have lost 10 of those outings, including seven by two runs or more. Seattle has tagged Skaggs for a 5.72 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, and a .319 BAA in five starts against the Mariners and Seattle is averaging 5.3 rpg in 20 evening tilts against lefthanders in 2017.  I'm laying the runs line with the Mariners on Friday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing Ottawa on Thursday, our KO release. Tough and close calls have led to a 1-5-1 start for the RedBlacks. This team is just a handful of plays from a terrific start to the season. In fact, they're 14 points away from a 7-0 mark. I believe they get "healthy" tonight against an Edmonton team that's a walking "mash" unit, especially up front on the offensive line. We had Ottawa last week and they blew the win in a 3-point loss to Winnipeg.  But tonight I expect a strong start and finish.  I'm backing Ottawa, our Thursday KO. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Houston Astros on the runs line when Charlie Morton and Marco Estrada take the mound for their respective teams.  Estrada is coming off a couple of improved starts, but this will be a huge step-up in level of competition from the White Sox & A's. And before his last outing, Estrada had been tagged for an 8.87 ERA & 2.06 WHIP in 10 starts.  The righthander allowed an average of 6.5 walks and 1.97 home runs per 9 IP in those outings.  Estrada has been bad on the road this season and horrible in night games.  It's tough to imagine he'll receive a lot of support from an offense that finished July ranked in the bottom-third in batting average, OBP, and OPS.  Houston was terrific again over the last month at the plate and the bats got hot again last night after a little lull.  Houston is 30 games above .500 against righties, averaging nearly 6 rpg.  Charlie Morton owns a home WHIP of 1.19 and a home BAA of .215 on the season and has punched out 63 batters in 59 2/3 IP.  He was even better in five July starts, allowing just 29 base runners with a .165 BAA in 30 2/3 IP.  If you believe the Astros are going to win a Charlie Morton start, you might as well play the runs line.  They've won 10 of his starts this season, covering the RL in each and every one, winning by an average margin of 5.4 rpg.  We'll back the Astros, our Runs Line Wipeout on Saturday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Ottawa RedBlacks on Friday night.  Ottawa got a much needed bye last week after coming up just short in a loss to Toronto the previous week.  The RedBlacks are 1-3-1 SU on the season, but just 11 points from a 5-0 record.  And when you consider they have a tie and a 4 point loss to Calgary, arguably the most talented team in the league and a 2 point loss to Edmonton, a definite contender in the West, you get a better picture at just how good this Ottawa team can be.  Winnipeg owns the better record at 3-2 on the season, but the Blue Bombers don't exactly strike fear into opposing offenses, having allowed 40 or more points in three of five games and giving up an average of 35.8 ppg this season.  The Bombers have allowed a whopping 5.35 yards per play on first down and a ridiculous 7.17 yards per play on second down in a league where you punt on third down.  That's not good at all, obviously, and I believe it catches up to them on Friday.  Winnipeg may have a tough time keeping up this week with their top offensive player banged-up.  We'll lay the points with Ottawa as they look to extend their run to 8-1 ATS.  The Ottawa RedBlacks are our CFL G.O.M.!  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Saskatchewan Roughriders on Saturday. We had Toronto last week and the Argos almost blew it in the fourth before eking our a 27-24 win over Ottawa. Toronto is probably a season away from truly contending.  They are 3-2 in Marc Trestman's return to the CFL, but two of the wins came against Ottawa by a grand total of four points, while their other win came against winless and hapless Hamilton.  Toronto's two games against the stronger West Division resulted in a 28-15 loss to BC and a 33-25 loss to Winnipeg.  They're traveling and taking on a focused Saskatchewan team that can't afford too many more losses before picking up a couple wins. The Roughriders are 1-3, splitting their home games with two of the three losses coming by a total of four points.  The defense has played well, holding their opponents to 3.32 yards per play on first down, an important handicapping tool in this three-down league.  Toronto has had their problems with their first down offense the last couple of weeks, putting themselves in a hole, and we feel they're going to pay for it in this one.  We also expect a now healthy Roughrider offense to have a major advantage over a badly banged-up Argo defense, playing on a short week.  I'm laying the points with Saskatchewan, our KO release on Saturday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the runs line with the Houston Astros with Dallas Keuchel over Jordan Zimmermann.  The Astros' ace is back on the hill for the first time since early June.  Keuchel was sizzling hot before the injury, posting likely Cy Young winning numbers.  While he may be on a pitch count tonight, I expect strong results after making two solid rehab starts in the minors, allowing just one run and five hits in eight innings.  Houston has won all six of Keuchel's road starts this season and the lefty posted a 2.20 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and .199 BAA.  Houston is 8-2 against the runs line in their 10 wins with Keuchel on the mound this season and they're on an 11-1 runs line run over their last 12 wins.  If you believe Houston is going to win a game, you might as well lessen the juice and lay the run-and-a-half.  Jordan Zimmermann has been smacked around in his four July starts, saddled with an ERA north of 7.00, a 1.84 WHIP, and a .354 BAA. The Tigers have allowed a total of 31 runs, or nearly 8 rpg in those outings.  With the way Houston's offense plates runners, I believe Zimmermann is in for more of the same tonight.  I'm laying the runs line with the Astros on Friday night.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Boston Red Sox on the runs line with Chris Sale over Andrew Moore.  Boston has been struggling a bit but the combination of Sale on the mound and facing Moore at the plate should be a case of "just what the doctor ordered." Boston's last 12 wins with Sale on the bump have all covered the runs line.  In fact, Boston won those 12 games by an average margin of more than 5 rpg.  Sale has produced great numbers in his last four starts against the Mariners, including two strong outings at SAFECO.  He's backed by a pen with the third stingiest ERA in MLB, and at the plate by an offense averaging 6.1 rpg in daytime action against righthanders.  Andrew Moore has allowed a whopping 9 home runs in 30 IP, for a 2.7 HR's per 9 IP ratio.  He only has 13 K's during the stretch and the Mariners have allowed about 5 rpg when he starts. Making matters worse for Seattle, they average just 3.2 rpg in home day games against southpaws and they're 2-10 against the runs line in their last 12 home losses.  I'm backing the Red Sox, our Runs Line Wipeout on Wednesday afternoon.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the short points with the Toronto Argonauts on Monday night as they look to make it two wins over Ottawa in 16 days.  The RedBlacks are in a tough scheduling spot playing their second game in five days and third game in 11 days.  We had Ottawa on Wednesday and cashed the ticket. But I'm not too sure Ottawa would have won that game without help from Montreal.  While the RedBlacks won, 24-19, Montreal suffered two turnovers inside the Ottawa 10-yard line and four turnovers, overall.  The so-so Ottawa defense allowed the Als to gain an average of 8 yards per play on first down.  This is really nothing new for this defense.  They struggled against the Argos earlier this season, allowing 6.1 yards per play on first down, while the offense averaged just 2.7 yards per first down play.  It's an important stat in this 3-down league. Toronto will play their first game since July 13, having plenty of rest and an opportunity to improve on their game. The Marc Trestman/Ricky Ray led offense will face an Ottawa defense that ranks second to last in the CFL in total yards allowed per game and yards passing allowed per game.  They aren't much better against the run and rank third to last in ppg allowed.  No team throws the ball for more yards per game than the Argos, while the Toronto defense is top-3 against the run, the pass, and in total yards allowed per contest.  We'll back the Toronto Argonauts, our CFL Knockout on Monday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Ottawa RedBlacks on Wednesday.  We cashed with Ottawa plus the points last week.  The Redblacks have been close to landing in the win column and are now in a situation where they can't afford many more losses.  They also have a beatable opponent this week. Ottawa has already faced Calgary twice, playing to a 31-31 tie and losing by four in the second meeting.  Two weeks ago they lost 26-25 to Toronto and last week, lost by two points at Edmonton. Ottawa is a grand total of 8 points from a 4-0 start. Montreal is off one of its biggest wins in quite some time, knocking off Calgary last week in front of the home folks. It was an emotional win and the Al's may have a tough time reaching the same intensity level against an angry & desperate team that's much better than their record would indicate.  I'm laying the points with the Ottawa RedBlacks, our Wednesday KO.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Houston Astros on the runs line on Sunday when Mike Fiers battles Kyle Gibson. The Astros are a perfect 5-0 when laying the 1.5 runs the last five times they have won with Fiers on the mound.  Fiers has posted a strong, 2.65 ERA & 1.23 WHIP in his last 10 starts, going back nearly two full months.  The RH shut down the Twins in a 7-2 win in late May.  We also like the fact he has the offense behind him with Houston averaging nearly 6 rpg against righties.  They'll face Kyle Gibson today and the Minnesota righty has allowed 9 homers in his last six starts, spanning just 33 IP, amounting to a hefty 2.45 HR's per 9 IP ratio.  We also note the Twins have dropped eight of Gibson's starts this season and all eight were by two runs or more.  The Twins evened-out the weekend series yesterday, but we'll back the Astros to get the win and cover the runs line on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Ottawa RedBlacks on Friday.  Ottawa has been close thus far and are now in a situation where they can't afford any more losses.  Ottawa has already faced Calgary twice, playing to a 31-31 tie and losing by four in the second meeting.  Last week, they lost 26-25 to Toronto and are a grand total of 6 points from a 3-0 start.  Edmonton is off a bye week, overvalued due to records, and have not been too hot as home chalk.  We'll grab the value...taking the points with the Ottawa RedBlacks on Friday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Toronto Argonauts on Saturday night.  The Argos made the hire of the year, maybe of the last few years in bringing Marc Trestman back to the CFL sidelines as a head coach.  The NFL game might not have been the right fit, but Trestman has flourished north of the border. His Argos are 1-1 this season and came within a couple of decisive plays of a 2-0 start before losing last weekend to the BC Lions.  But I expect a bounce back here.  Ottawa is finished in a 31-31 tie as a 6-point dog to Calgary in their lone game of the season.  The Ottawa offense played well, but the defense couldn't hold the Stamps in check.  The secondary watched Bo Levi Mitchell complete 50 of 79 passes against them the last two weeks, allowing 5 TD passes with no picks. The defense has allowed 5.24 yards per first down play and a whopping 7.49 yards per play on second down in the three down league.  The Ottawa defense should provide "just what the doctor ordered" as Ricky Ray looks to get his offense back on track after a defensive battle last week against BC.  Ottawa is on a 1-7 ATS slide as home chalk, while Trestman-coached CFL teams are on a 7-0 ATS run off a double digit loss as a favorite.  We'll grab the points with the Toronto Argos, our first Canadian Crush of the new season.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Indians on the runs line on Friday with Carrasco over Zimmerman.  When the Indians win with Carlos Carrasco on the mound, they generally do so by margin.  Cleveland is on a 6-0 runs line run when the right-hander toes the rubber, winning by an average margin of 4 rpg. The Indians are on an 8-1 run when Carrasco starts against Detroit, including covering the runs line five of the last seven wins.  Tigers' righty Jordan Zimmermann has had a rough time in two of three months this season and after a decent run in June, he's been tagged for 12 earned runs and 24 base runners in his last three starts, spanning 16 1/3 IP.  Zimmermann has a hefty 2.21 HR's per 9 IP ratio in those outings. He's only faced the Tribe a three times over the last few years, but was no match for Cleveland bats.  Detroit is just 9-20 on the road against right-handed starters, while Cleveland has punished right-handers for 5 rpg.  I'm backing the Indians on the runs line on Friday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the BC Lions on Thursday night.  As mentioned last week, BC played about as poorly as this Grey Cup contender can, yet still almost won their week-1 contest with Edmonton.  They won and covered for us last week, an outright underdog winner over Toronto, but the game was in the balance until the fourth quarter.  HC Wally Buono wants to see 60 minutes of focused action from BC and we believe he'll get it tonight in Montreal.  Look for QB Jonathan Jennings to use his legs even more this week, complimenting the Lions' passing game. Jennings ran the ball just six times a week ago, averaging over 4 yards per carry. Montreal looks ripe to get beat a few times on the ground by Jennings.  We also expect the listless Al's offense to find the going tough.  Montreal is averaging just 3.3 yards per play on first downs this season, a tough hole to dig out of in the 3-downs league. In comparison, BC averaged nearly 5 yards per first down play against Edmonton and 5.8 yards on first down last week against Toronto.  The Lions enter on an 11-4 ATS run on the road, while the Alouettes are on a 1-6 ATS slide as a home underdog.  We're backing the BC Lions minus the points, our Thursday KO.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the runs line with the Dodgers with Alex Wood over Zack Godley.  The Dodgers have reeled off a 9-0 record in Wood's last nine starts, covering the runs line eight times, and winning by an average margin of 5 rpg. And while Arizona is having a fantastic season, they have not been too hot against southpaws, ranked 25th in the league in team batting average against lefties and 27th in OPS.  They're just 1-5 in their last six road games against southpaws.  And finally, despite last night's one-run win, the Dodgers are on an 8-1 runs line run at Chavez Ravine.  I'm backing the Dodgers on the runs line on Wednesday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the BC Lions on Friday night.  BC played about as poorly as this Grey Cup contender can, yet still almost won their week-1 contest with Edmonton, another contender. The Lions' offensive line had their issues in pass blocking situations, but I expect a better prepared team this week.  Toronto benefited from playing against a banged-up and weak Hamilton team in their opening week win.  The Ti-Cats were decimated in the secondary going into the game and Toronto took full advantage.  The Argos were also aggressive on the defensive side of the football and I expect another aggressive effort after seeing the problems BC had up front last week. I also expect the approach to backfire. Look for BC HC Wally Buono turn athletic QB Jonathan Jennings loose in this one, taking advantage of his ability with his feet, complimenting the Lions' passing game.  Argos HC Marc Trestman is back in his element, roaming the CFL sidelines, but I expect his squad to be out-played by a better team looking to avoid an 0-2 start. CFL underdogs are now a perfect 5-0 ATS after another cover on Thursday and they're on a 16-4-1 ATS run over the first four weeks of the season since the start of the 2016 campaign. The dog has covered four of the last five meetings and Toronto enters on a 1-7 ATS slide going back to last year. I'm grabbing the points with the BC Lions, our Friday Shocker.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the runs line with the Dodgers when Clayton Kershaw battles JC Ramirez. The Dodgers have won 10 straight Kershaw starts, covering the runs line seven times.  In fact, they're 10-4 against the runs line in their 14 wins when Kershaw toes the rubber this season.  The Angels haven't impressed at home against southpaws this season and current Angel players have just 13 hits in their last 97 at-bats against Kershaw for a .134 batting average with 1 home run and 5 RBI. JC Ramirez has been roughed-up in three of his last five home starts.  He has a 6.75 ERA in those five outings, allowing 7 home runs in 28 IP for a hefty 2.25 HR's per 9 IP ratio.  We also note that opponents covered the runs line all five times the Angels lost with Ramirez as a starter, losing by 4 runs on two occasions and by 6 runs three times.  I'm backing the Dodgers, my Runs Line Wipeout on Thursday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the BC Lions on Saturday.  There's not much wrong with the Eskimos offense, but the Lions are the better unit and because of the advantage BC has on the defensive side of the football, Edmonton will be hard-pressed to keep up and we don't believe they will.  Jonathan Jennings leads a very talented Lions' attack and the signing of WR Chris Williams gives Jennings the deep threat to complete a fantastic receiving corps.  And while the defense lost a couple of studs to the NFL, they still have a future NFL LB in Loucheiz Purifoy and few know how to get the most from a defense like BC HC Wally Buono. BC ranks 2nd in my CFL power ratings, trailing only Calgary. Look for a strong week-1 start. I'm laying the points with the BC Lions, our KO release.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Cavaliers in Sunday's Game 2 tilt.  We had Golden State in game 1 and cashed.  As we mentioned, Eastern Conf teams have taken a game to get used to the level of play of the Western Conf champion when starting the Finals on the road (0-10 SU/ATS last 10 times). But the underdog has been the way to go in Game 2 of the Finals, going 16-9-1 ATS the last 26 years, including 7-2 ATS the last nine times.  Of course, the Warriors were a rare Game 2 favorite that covered last postseason, but the Cavs covered in the dog role in this situation in 2015. Cleveland played about as poorly on the defensive end as they possibly can on Thursday and I expect extra focus when it comes to transition defense, while actually playing a little defense on Kevin Durant on Sunday.  Klay Thompson has been a shell of his former self this postseason, including a 3 of 16 night in Game 1 and the Cavs had the goods on Draymond Green, holding him without a basket for nearly three quarters.  On another note, the early line for Game 2 was GSW minus-7 before Game 1 tipped off, so we're getting extra value on the defending champs.  The Cavaliers enter on a 7-1-1 ATS road run and NBA playoff road teams with a winning record are on a 44-18 ATS run if their opponent owns a win percentage of .750 or higher on the season.  These elite level teams are generally overvalued and we mentioned above that Golden State is laying up to a basket higher than for Game 2 than they were before the series began.  We're grabbing the points with the Cavaliers, our Slam Dunk on Sunday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Warriors in Game 1 on Thursday.  Golden State has won the last two Game 1 Finals matchups with the Cavaliers by scores of 104-89 last season and 108-100 in 2015. And after falling apart last year after building a 3-1 series lead, we expect the Warriors to attempt to set the tone with a fast-paced, 3-point barrage, type of attack.  We note that Western Conf teams are on a 9-0 SU/ATS run when they open the Finals at home. And we also believe it'll take the Cavs at least a game to catch up to the level of play the Western Conf champ brings to the table after an easy run against mediocre Eastern Conf opponents.  We also note again that the Cavs finished the season ranked 21st in defensive efficiency, ranked far lower than they were a season ago.  Look for Golden State to take advantage, setting the tone in Game 1.  I'm laying the points with the Warriors, our Game 1 Slam Dunk.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Celtics on Thursday, our Slam Dunk release.  The injury to Isaiah Thomas and the fact Marcus Smart brings a much bigger body to the mix has added a dimension to the Celtics at both ends of the floor.  Boston is finally not hampered by a 5'9 guard when the Cavaliers possess the basketball.  While I'm an Isaiah Thomas fan, they're simply better against the elite teams in the league when they're not so exposed. Brad Stevens has employed a motion offense and it has worked well; there's just not much you can do when a team sinks nearly three of every four shots over the final 24 minutes of basketball, which is what Cleveland did in the second half of game-4.  Boston is playing with confidence and we feel can and will hang this number. And we note that double digit home dogs are on a 56-26 ATS run if they're off a SU loss where they covered as an underdog. We expect Boston to play well enough to cash the ticket.  I'm taking the points with the Celtics, our Thursday Slam Dunk.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the run line with the Houston Astros with McCullers over Zimmerman. Jordan Zimmerman has been a disaster this season and faces the wrong lineup if you're a struggling hurler. Houston may have only won 1-0 last night, but they're averaging over 5 rpg against RH. Meanwhile, Lance McCullers has been about as good as it gets on the home mound. McCullers owns a 2.11 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 0.72 HR's/9 IP ratio, and has averaged 10.87 K's/9IP in 24 career starts at Minute Maid. Four of the last five games won by Houston with McCullers on the hill have come by 2 runs or more. We expect more of the same tonight. McCullers at home combined with Houston's bats against a struggling starting pitcher give us a run line play. The Astros are our Run Line Wipeout on Tuesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Spurs on Tuesday.  The road team has covered four of the last five in this series, including game-1 when the Spurs easily covered the spread.  We had San Antone the last time they played without Kawhi Leonard and won easily when they beat Houston outright. While we don't think SAS will win this one SU, we do believe they'll hang the big number, four points higher with Kawhi sidelined. The Spurs are on an 8-0, 100% ATS run off a road loss by no more than three points, clamping down on the defensive end in this situation.  Meanwhile, the Warriors have lost four straight ATS against teams playing better than .600 basketball.  We're taking the points with the Spurs on Tuesday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Celtics, our Monday Slam Dunk.  Boston let one slip away as John Wall nailed a trey in the closing seconds for the win on Friday.  But I like the way Al Horford played again, and I feel the same way about Avery Bradley.  Boston is tossing two game plans at Washington in the same game on the offensive end as we explained in our Friday write-up.  The Wizards have no answer for Horford when he sets up on the perimeter.  And if they come off Isaiah Thomas, the Celtic guard drives or finds openings from the outside.  Washington survived on Friday.  But they're 0-6 ATS on the road against teams playing at last .600 basketball at home. Boston has covered four straight home games and they're on an 8-0, 100% ATS run playing host to Washington.  I expect Boston to win and cover again on Monday. I'm laying the points with the Celtics my Slam Dunk. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Celtics on Friday night.  Brad Stevens and his assistant coaches made a major chess move in the last meeting, posting Al Horford up high above the 3-point line, while having Isaiah Thomas look to Horford and others due to the fact the Wizards had been "swarming" him both with and without the ball.  With Horford up high and Thomas handling the ball, Thomas drew two defenders to himself, including Gortat, leaving Horford open to nail 8 of 9 shots, while Avery Bradley benefited also, scoring 25 first half points.  The Wizards now must be prepared to face two different game plans...and I suspect it won't be easy with just one day between games. Speaking of one day off, the depth-shy Wizards are on a 7-20-1 ATS slide on one day rest. Meanwhile, Boston has won 7 of 9 SU & ATS.  I expect another win, or at least a cover tonight. I'm grabbing the points with the Celtics, our NBA Slam Dunk. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Spurs in game-5 on Tuesday night.  Everything points to a powerful and stingy defensive performance by San Antonio in tonight's contest.  The #1 team in defensive efficiency this past regular season got shredded in game-4 after dominating games-2 & 3.  We note under Gregg Popovich the Spurs are 32-13 ATS when tied in a playoff series, holding the 45 opponents to 91.6 ppg.  They're 21-9 ATS at home off a loss by 20 or more points, holding those 30 teams to an average of 92 ppg, while winning by 12 ppg.  In fact, the Spurs are on a 6-2-1 ATS run off a SU loss in general. Houston couldn't miss last game making 19 3-point shots and fast-breaking their way past the sluggish Spurs. But as Manu Ginobili stated, they'll be treating game-5 like it was game-7. We also note the Rockets have covered just five of their last 18 games and they're on a 0-5 ATS slide off a win of 11 points or more.  No Nene is a big deal here.  And so is the fact the Spurs are off an ugly loss.  We'll lay the points with San Antonio on Tuesday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Cavaliers as they aim for the series sweep.  As we mentioned when this series began, the changes the Raptors made to their lineup to turn around their series against Milwaukee would have no impact on the Cavaliers. Cleveland is hitting on all cylinders and will look to put the series to bed as soon as possible.  The Raptors may keep it close throughout the first half picking up the slack if Lowry doesn't play, but if they do, we believe the Cavs will pull away over the final 12 minutes just as they did in game-3. We note that LeBron James' teams are 41-22 ATS in the second round of the playoffs.  And they're outstanding as playoff favorites in general. The Cavs are on a 5-0 ATS run and they have covered four in a row in Toronto.  I'm laying the points with the Cavaliers, my Sunday Knockout.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Warriors on Tuesday, my Slam Dunk.  Golden State is in a "take no prisoners" frame of mind this postseason.  Maybe Utah steals a game in this series, but not tonight in our opinion.  Extra time off will not hurt this team just like it didn't hurt the Cavaliers.  Indeed, the fact Kevin Durant got a chance to shake of the rust towards the end of the Portland series and has now had a chance to practice for a week, only helps.  Meanwhile, the Jazz are here as much for the Clippers' shortcomings as their own strong play.  Utah beat GSW on April 10, a game that meant little to the Warriors.  But in previous home games with Utah, (in games that did matter), the Jazz offered little resistance.  GSW has enjoyed hosting teams that average at least 18 3-point attempts per game over the second half of the last two seasons, posting a +16 ppg advantage the last 54 times. They're 18-6 ATS at home in revenge off a loss as chalk, again winning by an average of 16 ppg.  And under Steve Kerr, the Warriors are 43-20 ATS off a win by at least 20 points, averaging 118 ppg in those 63 contests.  Like the Cavs last night, I expect Golden State to take care of business in game-1 tonight.  I'm laying the points with the Warriors, my Slam Dunk. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the LA Clippers on Sunday.  An important change in the Clippers' rotation changed the outcome of game-6 and likely in this series.  The return of Austin Rivers, finally able to play at full health after shaking off the rust in game-5, provided the Clips with big dividends at both ends of the floor. Rivers not only adds to Doc Rivers' arsenal on the offensive end, but his ability to provide one more effective defender on Gordon Hayward at the other end, allowed the Clippers to defend Joe Johnson with Luc Mbah Moute.  And as far as the offensive end was concerned, the Clippers were even more effective in their Paul to Jordan pick-and-rolls.  I don't believe the Jazz will be able to adjust quick enough to capture game-7, SU or ATS.  And while Rudy Gobert is expected to play, his ankle is said to be less than 100% healthy and we've noticed Gobert settling for looks at the basket he didn't normally take during the regular season.  Other members of the Jazz are having trouble making shots, including Joe Ingles and Rodney Hood. Finally, NBA game-7 home teams are on a 62% winning ATS run the last 29 times and we'll stick with the home team here.  I'm laying the points with the Clippers, our Sunday Beatdown.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Boston Celtics on Friday night, our Beatdown release.  Two things caused the Bulls issues they haven't been able to overcome.  The obvious is the injury to Rajon Rondo, who isn't expected to be able to play again tonight.  The other was Brad Stevens' adjustment, specifically in starting Gerald Green.  Boston has rebounded much better the last couple of games and Green gives the Celtics an added dimension they didn't have in games one and two of this series.  And if Rondo surprises all and is able to give it a go, the Celtics with Green are a different animal than Rondo faced in the first two games of the series. I truly believe if the Bulls couldn't solve the issue in time for game five, they won't be able to overcome these issues tonight.  Boston enters on a 4-1 ATS road run and the favorite in the last 13 meetings is 10-3 ATS. Meanwhile, the Bulls have covered just eight of 25 games this season in double revenge, allowing 106 ppg in those outings. I'm laying the points with Boston, my Beatdown release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points on Thursday night.  Dwayne Casey pulled all the right strings with the adjustments he made in his starting lineup and amount of minutes given to certain players.  Toronto has started Norman Powell the last two games and he has come through with flying colors. Casey moved Serge Ibaka to center and Jonas Valanciunas has been coming off the bench rather than in the starting five.  But the Bucks have now had two games to adjust and I believe Jason Kidd (43-23 ATS off at least two straight losses as Bucks coach) and his staff will be ready for the Raptors "new" look tonight.  Milwaukee is still 4-0 ATS when playing on two days rest and they're on an 8-0 ATS run at home after two straight double digit losses, with an average win margin of 10 ppg in the eight outings.  I believe there will be a game-7 in Toronto and I'm backing the Bucks minus the short number, our Beatdown on Thursday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Chicago Bulls on Wednesday.  Boston HC Brad Stevens made a wise choice when he inserted Gerald Green into the starting lineup in games three and four. Green's presence really paid off in game four when he made 7 of 13 shots, including 4 of 9 3-pointers when the rest of the Celtics made just 6 of 28 treys.  It's now time for Fred Hoiberg to make the adjustment and we like what he's doing. The Bulls are expected to start Isaiah Canaan for the first time in this series on Wednesday night.  Canaan scored 13 points in game four and brings an added dimension at both ends of the floor.  We also may see Rajon Rondo tonight (questionable) but we don't need Rondo to make this a play. We also saw Jimmy Butler start to get back on track with 33 points last time out, to go along with 9 assists.  I didn't like the inconsistent play of Isaiah Thomas in game four, including his hot-and-cold shooting and decision making, especially when you now have to win by more than four baskets if you're a Boston backer. Boston heads into this one on a 1-8 ATS slide at home, while the Bulls are on a 7-0 ATS road run against teams with a winning home record, and the visitor in this series has covered four straight.  I believe this game will go right to the wire, giving us plenty of value with the underdog.  I'm taking the points with the Bulls, my Wednesday Knockout.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Utah Jazz on Tuesday night.  The return of Rudy Gobert certainly changes this series, especially with the absence of Blake Griffin for the Clippers and Joe Johnson's veteran know-how, boosting the Jazz.  Gobert brings lock-down defensive play and also strong board work pulling down 13 rebounds in game four.  With the defensive player of the year candidate sidelined earlier in the series, the Clippers out-rebounded the Jazz in all three games and by a total margin of 120-94.  But with his return, the Jazz finished game four with a 42-31 advantage on the glass.  Add in the fact LAC doesn't have a lot of offensive "outs" with Griffin sidelined and I believe it's going to be tough for the Clips to pull away in this contest.  We also note that under Doc Rivers, the Clippers have covered just 22 of 60 home games against good teams, those that outscore their opponents by an average of at least 3 ppg.  Utah fits the bill.  I'm taking the points with the Jazz, my Slam Dunk on Tuesday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Warriors on Monday.  Portland posted an outstanding effort in game three yet fell short in the end, losing 119-113. The Blazers led by 13 at the break, but once Golden State started clicking in the second half, they were unstoppable. I expect Portland to get after it again at the opening tip tonight, but I also expect GSW to pull away by an even greater margin down the stretch.  The Warriors fell well short of their season-long shooting percentages last time out and I don't believe they'll fall victim to poor shooting for a second straight game.  The Warriors are on a 6-0 ATS run on the road and they're on a 14-3-1 ATS run in their last 18 games, overall.  They will be without HC Steve Kerr tonight and potentially for the rest of the playoffs, but they're used to taking the court without him after his back problems a season ago.  Portland is expected to be missing Jusuf Nurkic, who gave the Blazers a boost in game three.  They were not the same when Nurkic was sidelined earlier in the series.  Even if he plays tonight, it's not expected to be for long or anywhere near 100%.  I expect the Warriors to wrap-up the series and I'm laying the points with Golden State, our Monday Knockout.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Houston Rockets plus the short points on Sunday afternoon.  Houston had a horrible night from the deep perimeter in their game-3 loss, making just 10 of 35 3-pointers, while OKC shot 55.4% overall and over 47% from behind the arc.  All that yet OKC only won by a bucket.  Houston still drove the paint and drew more fouls and we expect more of the same tonight. However, OKC shouldn't expect another bad shooting night from the Rockets. Houston finished 2nd in the NBA in offensive efficiency this season.  And while the Thunder are on a 1-5 ATS slide against teams playing better than .600 basketball on the season, the Rockets will aim for their 7th straight cover at OKC.  Houston is a perfect 7-0 ATS on the road in revenge, provided the opponent scored at least 110 points in the previous meeting.  They're also 13-4 ATS on the road this season when the line is in the +3/-3 range.  I'm backing the Rockets plus the short points, my Beatdown on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Spurs on Saturday.  The Spurs' starters will certainly be fresh for game-4 after none of them played more than 30 minutes in the 105-94 loss in game-3. Gregg Popovich expressed his distaste for their play by sitting the starting five late in the third quarter. Tony Parker didn't make a single FGA after averaging over 16 ppg in their first two games.  Bottom line:  San Antonio didn't bring their A-game.  I suspect they will tonight.  They normally do in this spot, going 36-19 ATS under Pop off a double digit loss as a road favorite, winning by an average score of 101-92.  Memphis made 51% of their FGA in the win as the Spurs failed on the defensive end after leading the entire league in defensive efficiency this regular season.  They normally get it done at both ends, while the Grizzlies rarely play as well on the offensive end as they did last time out.  The Spurs are 5-1 ATS after allowing at least 100 points in a game and despite the win, the Grizzlies enter on 4-11 SU slide.  Spurs bounce back.  I'm laying the points with San Antonio on Saturday, our KO release. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Toronto Raptors on Saturday afternoon.  It can't get much worse if you're a Toronto fan after the way they played in game-3.  I expect an immediate bounce back from Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan and company.  The Raptors scored just 77 points on 33% shooting and we're talking about a team that finished top-10 in scoring averaging 107 ppg on the season.  Lowry has rushed things and looked like he was overthinking things too much in game-1, while the team collectively failed in game-3.  But this is a veteran team that's in the same type of spot OKC and Boston were in last night -- a virtual must win spot.  I believe they'll come through and I'm taking the points with the Raptors, my Daytime Beatdown. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Boston Celtics on Friday night.  It's virtually now or never time for Boston.  Rajon Rondo was one of a couple of Bulls' players who wondered out loud if the Celtics simply gave up in game-2.  We suspect Boston will be motivated to right the ship tonight with a little extra motivation on their side.  There was a positive in game-2 when Boston fared much better on the glass, especially on the offensive boards where they finished dead-even with the Bulls with 11 apiece.  But they were sloppy with the basketball and struggled on the defensive end. We mentioned several times on our radio show before this series began that we felt the Celtics were not an automatic to advance.  So far, the Bulls have been the better team.  But the Celtics won two of the final three regular season meetings, including a 100-80 win just one month ago despite attempting just four FTs.  Isaiah Thomas was the catalyst and we expect the guard to lead his team to a win tonight.  Boston is on a 22-10 ATS run on the road in double revenge and they're 19-8 ATS in road revenge off a double digit loss under Brad Stevens.  Chicago has found the going rough off of four-game winning streaks, going 0-3 this season and 1-5 (2-4 ATS) the last two seasons. Defense has been a problem in this spot, allowing 115 ppg.  I expect Boston to get in the win column in this series on Friday.  The Celtics plus the short points.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Spurs on Thursday.  Memphis limped into the playoffs, losing nine of their final 12 regular season games.  And while that doesn't always signal a poor playoff performance, their matchup with San Antonio simply exposes their deficiencies.  The Grizzlies finished dead last 30th in the league in FG percentage this season and 29th in scoring, relying heavily on their play on the defensive end.  But as we have seen through the first two games of this series, the Spurs are the better team at what Memphis does best. Indeed, San Antonio finished 1st in the league in defensive efficiency. But while Memphis is a one-trick pony, the Spurs were the 7th best team at the other end of the floor in offensive efficiency. David Fizdale ranted and raved about the officiating in game-2.  While he may have had a point, the bottom line is that while it might fire his team up in the first half of this one, we don't believe Pop and the Spurs will let the opportunity to take a commanding series lead slip through their fingers. Memphis heads into this one on a 1-12 ATS slide on two days rest, losing by an average score of 106-96.  And elite teams, (Spurs), those playing at least .750 basketball on the season are on a 32-10 ATS run if they're laying 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points and off two straight double-digit home wins.  We're backing the Spurs minus the points, our Thursday Slam Dunk.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Raptors on Tuesday night.  Toronto looked on their way to capturing game-1, holding a 51-46 lead at the break.  But without taking too much away from Milwaukee, the fact is, the Raptors missed a lot of open looks over the final two quarters and HC Casey stated that his squad played without rhythm in the second half.  Toronto is also known for digging themselves a hole, having dropped nine straight opening round game-1 matchups.  Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan certainly must shoot better and we believe they will when you consider the number of open looks that went awry.  The chalk is on a 6-1 ATS run between these teams and Toronto has covered four straight off a SU loss.  These teams met twice in Toronto during the regular season and the Raptors won by 16 points and 22 points, covering both.  And while Jason Kidd is teaching his team toughness and defense, the fact is, his team has covered just 6 of 24 following a game where they held an opponent to no more than 85 points.  I do expect a bounce back from the Raptors.  They have been here before, including last year when they lost game-1 at home, 100-90 to Indiana as a 7-point favorite, then winning and covering game-2 as 8-point chalk.  I expect more of the same.  I'm laying the points with the Raptors, my Slam Dunk.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

Late release on the Cavaliers minus the points on Monday night.  Thanks & GL!  Scott.  Note: Late releases don't normally contain analysis when time is of the essence. 

I'm laying the points with the Cavaliers in Saturday's game-1 matchup.  The last time the Cavs took a full four quarters seriously, they crushed the Celtics in Boston and it wasn't even close.  The Cavs took the final three games in the regular season series with the Pacers after losing the initial tilt in November, piling up 127 ppg on 51% shooting.  Even when you exclude the two OT periods in the final meeting, the Cavs still averaged over 116 ppg during the three straight wins. I expect Cleveland to continue their offensive success against Indiana in game-1, and I don't believe the Pacers will keep up.  And while Indiana fought tooth-and-nail down the stretch just to be here, the Cavaliers were able to rest bodies.  Indeed, Cleveland is as healthy as they have been in a long time and we expect it to show on the defensive end.  The Pacers have covered just 4 of 17 on the road off a home win and they're on a 1-6 ATS slide on the road against teams with a winning home record.  Meanwhile, the Cavs have covered 17 of their last 25 in this round.  I'm laying the points with the Cavaliers, my NBA Knockout.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm grabbing the points with the Milwaukee Bucks on Thursday.  The Bucks have been one of our favorite teams over the last several weeks, knowing when to jump in and when to pass.  We passed their last game and the Bucks were hammered 110-79 at Oklahoma City. The Bucks are 5th in the Eastern Conference standings and while they can't move up, they could land outside the top eight when the postseason begins if they don't take care of business.  Another team looking to win is the Indiana Pacers who're in a three-way fight with Chicago & Miami for the final playoff spot in the East. But Indiana has been no match for the Bucks this season with Milwaukee winning three meetings by an average margin of 16 ppg.  Lance Stephenson is back in a Pacer uniform and brings toughness, but he's not enough to put them over the top in this matchup in my betting opinion.  Also, while the Pacers are on a 0-6 ATS slide off a SU win, the Bucks are on a 4-0 ATS run off a double digit loss and they're on a 5-1 ATS run at Indiana.  I expect Milwaukee to garner the season sweep, at least as far as the spread is concerned.  I'm taking the points with the Bucks, my NBA Shocker.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm grabbing the points with the Charlotte Hornets on Tuesday night.  The Hornets have won four straight and thanks to a few losses by the teams in front of them, Charlotte is just one game out of the 8th & final spot in the Eastern Conference playoff standings.  Offense has been a main key in their recent surge, scoring an average of 111.5 ppg during their current 6-2 SU/ATS run. Washington will look to play an uptempo, high scoring game, but the Wizards play little defense, allowing 108 ppg on the season on 47% shooting.  They rank 20th in the league in defensive efficiency.  The Wizards are also off a tough road trip with just a day off between games and we note they're on a 5-15-1 ATS slide when playing with just one day off.  They're also on a 0-7 ATS slide off a SU loss and have been a go-against of late, dropping nine of their last 12 ATS.  We'll grab the points with Charlotte, our DogPound release on Tuesday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Indiana Pacers, my DogPound release.  The Cavaliers broke through with a nice effort and win over Philadelphia last time out.  But the Cavs' issues remain their play on the defensive end, where they have been horrible since the all-star break.  In fact, Cleveland ranks 23rd in the league in defensive efficiency on the season.  That's a far cry from last year's 10th best ranking. I do expect better results from the Cavs once the postseason begins, but right now this is a team more concerned with their health than with overtaking Boston for top spot in the East. Remember, LeBron teams have been the second seed four times in the East and those teams went to the NBA Finals all four times.  The Cavs enter on a 2-6-1 ATS slide in their last nine games and they're on a 7-19 ATS slide against teams that control the ball, turning it over no more than 14 times per game. Meanwhile, the Pacers are 6-2 ATS off a double digit loss and they're 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 against Cleveland. We'll grab the points with the Pacers, our DogPound on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Gonzaga on Saturday.  Sindarius Thornwell and the Gamecocks have set the tone in the second half of their Big Dance tilts, forcing a physical style of play, while playing scramble defense and forcing teams out of their offensive comfort zone.  But it's Gonzaga who I believe will set the tone tonight.  The Bulldogs have great backcourt players, led by Nigel Williams-Goss, but they want every possession to go through the low post and that's something South Carolina hasn't faced at the level they'll see on Saturday.  I do believe it'll take the Gamecocks out of their comfort zone and the last time that happened, SC lost 64-53 to Alabama in the SEC tourney.  Gonzaga heads into this one on a 13-3 ATS run against teams that outscore their opponents by at least four ppg, and they're on a 16-4-2 ATS run against teams playing better than .600 basketball on the season.  I like the evolution of Mark Few's coaching and Gonzaga's style of play over the last few years and I'm betting it pays off here.  I'm laying the points with Gonzaga, my Knockout on Saturday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Milwaukee Bucks on Wednesday.  We had the Bucks last night and while Boston was idle, we do note that Milwaukee is on a 6-1 ATS run when playing without rest, while Boston has covered just five of their last 21 with two nights off between games.  The Bucks also didn't have to work too hard, going up by 11 points at the end of the first quarter and never looking back in a 118-108 win.  The Bucks have won 12 of their last 16 games and I mentioned in last night's preview, it's not just about the team buying into Kidd's defensive style of coaching. The Bucks are also tough to defend, ranked 2nd in the NBA in FG percentage and last night they nailed 62% of their shots.  Boston has won four in a row and seven of their last eight, but they have been overvalued at the books where they're just 2-4 ATS in their last six.  While Boston will work hard to attempt to remain in front of the Cavs in the Eastern Conference standings, the Bucks won't take a night off either.  Milwaukee remains in a fight with Atlanta & Indiana for 5th through 7th and with just a two-game lead over the 8-seed.  Slip-up and the Bucks could have to face the Celtics or Cavaliers in the opening round.  These teams went to OT before Boston won 112-108 in their last meeting.  I expect another close one here.  I'm grabbing the points with the Bucks, my DogPound release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with UCF, my Tuesday Knockout.  The Golden Knights have been shocking opponents with their defensive prowess and we expect more of the same tonight.  UCF ranks 1st in the nation, holding teams to 36.3% shooting, including 22nd defending the trey.  They've stayed true to form in the NIT, holding their three opponents to 36.8% shooting, including 32.2% from behind the arc.  UCF has also owned the glass, averaging nine more rebounds than they allow in the tournament.  UCF enters on a 7-1 ATS run against teams with a winning record and they're on a 14-6 ATS run in non-conference action, while the Horned Frogs are on a 4-10 ATS slide against teams playing better than .600 basketball.  It's been a terrific first season for Jamie Dixon at TCU, but we're betting it comes to an end tonight due to another strong defensive effort from the Knights. We're taking the points with Central Florida, our NIT Knockout.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday night.  Tough loss last time out for Jason Kidd's squad.  After playing well on the defensive end for most of the previous 14 games (11-3 SU) the Bucks looked like they didn't show up on Sunday, especially in the second half. But after allowing Chicago to nail 54% of their FGA and getting clobbered on the glass, I expect a bounce back for the Bucks tonight.  Milwaukee is in a fight with Atlanta & Indiana for the 5 through 7 spots in the East. The difference?  A 7-seed will likely mean a playoff series with the Cavaliers or Celtics.  Milwaukee isn't simply about playing Kidd-style defense, but they're also 2nd in the NBA in offensive FG percentage.  Meanwhile, Charlotte ranks 27th in the league in FG percentage and have covered just five of their last 16 home games.  The road team is on an 11-1 ATS run in this series and the Bucks have covered five straight in Charlotte. More of the same.  I'm taking the points with the Bucks, our Slam Dunk. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Spurs on Monday night, our Slam Dunk.  If you're looking for the Cavaliers to turn things around and atone for their 127-115 loss to Washington last time out, it might not be so automatic.  The Cavs are on a 1-8-1 ATS slide off a double digit home loss.  Their defense has been the second worst in the NBA since the all-star break and they've allowed 120 or more points five times in March. The struggles on defense have come to the forefront in road games against the Western Conference, where they have covered just 3 of 14, while giving up 112 ppg.  The Spurs, meanwhile, own the league's most efficient defense since January 31.  They have dominated high scoring teams, covering 18 of 24 against those that average at least 106 ppg. Most impressive is the fact they have held those 24 teams to less than 99 ppg.  In reality, as ESPN reported, the Cavaliers would rather be healthy than the EC 1-seed when the postseason begins. After all, LeBron has been a 2-seed four times and made it to the finals in all four of those instances. I'm laying the points with the Spurs, our Monday Slam Dunk.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Florida on Sunday, my Beatdown.  The Gamecocks ruined our Friday when they whipped Baylor.  But they will now face a championship-caliber Gator squad that will not be surprised by anything Carolina attempts, and won't be pushed around by their physical play. The teams split the regular season tilts with SC winning 57-53 at home and Florida taking the rematch, 81-66 in Gainesville.  While SC won the first meeting, it should be noted the Gators made just 15 of 28 FTA and miss all 17 3-point attempts, yet only lost by four points.  The Gators held SC to 37 of 107, 34.6% shooting, including 7 of 27, 26% 3-pointers in the two games, combined.  UF took an approach of making sure no one outside of Sindarius Thornwell would have a big game.  Take Thornwell's stats out of the two meetings and the rest of the team made just 26 of 84, 30.9% of their FGA.  I expect more of the same in this one and another UF win and cover. I also expect the Gators to force SC into committing turnovers.  They held the Gamecocks to 16 assists with 30 turnovers in this season's meetings. And while the Gators are on a 15-5-1 ATS run as chalk of less than seven points, the Gamecocks finished the regular season and conf tourney on a 1-9 ATS conference slide.  I'm laying the points with Florida, my Sunday Beatdown.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with UMBC in Sunday's CIT action.  This one offers a matchup of opposing styles with UMBC looking to utilize their speed and force an uptempo, high scoring contest, while Liberty wants a deliberate approach and would be quite happy with a "first team to 60" result.  But there are two issues for Liberty.  While they have held their last five opponents to 57 ppg, it's not due to great defensive play, but instead because they slow down the tempo when they are in possession of the basketball.  Liberty has allowed their last five opponents to make 46% of their FGA.  You'll also see their defensive numbers in road action has not been nearly as stingy, allowing hosts to score 70 ppg on the season.  The Flames have taken 50% of their shots from behind the arc over the last five games, making just 31% of their attempts.  Numerous missed treys means a speedy team like UMBC can convert some key buckets off long rebounds.  The Retrievers average about 85 ppg at home.  They already forced Fairfield into playing a faster tempo this postseason and I expect more of the same here.  I'm laying the points with UMBC, my Slam Dunk.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

We're laying the points with Furman on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Baylor on Friday night.  South Carolina has surprised many by getting this far, but I'm betting the run comes to an end tonight at MSG.  The Gamecocks didn't shoot well all season and in fact, rank 299th in the nation in FG percentage. But USC shot lights-out against Maryland and made 71% of their shots in the second half of the win over Duke, after making just 7 of 35 shots in the opening 20 minutes.  South Carolina scored 63 points over the final 17+ minutes of game time after trailing 35-25 to the Blue Devils early in the second half.  USC was able to knock their first two Big Dance opponents around and I doubt they'll be able to do the same tonight.  Baylor has size.  Al Freeman is a decent-sized guard.  Jake Lindsey is a big guard who'll get 20+ minutes tonight.  The Bears are a team that can take South Carolina's physical style of play and won't back-off in the second half.  The Bears also have three players with more than 100 assists on the season a definite advantage in creating shots at the offensive end.  And as far as USC's sudden hot shooting goes, Baylor ranks 22nd in the nation, holding teams to 40.4% shooting.  The Gamecocks are on a 1-7 ATS slide against teams that allow no more than 42% shooting on the season.  Since Frank Martin took the gig, the Gamecocks are 4-19 ATS when facing a team that out-rebounds their opponents by at least 4 per game during the second half of the season (15 game mark).  And finally, Baylor is on a 7-2 ATS run in non-conference contests. I'm laying the points with Baylor, my KO GOM.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Pacers, my Friday Slam Dunk.  Denver's in a tough spot tonight, coming off games against the Clippers, the Cavaliers, and home & home games with the Rockets. They're also taking on an Indiana squad that will look to atone for a 140-112 thrashing at the hands of the Nuggets in January.  Denver nailed 57% of their shots in the win.  Indiana may be alternating wins and losses of late, but the fact is, they're on a 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) run on their home floor, where they're 25-10 SU on the season. Denver is just 3-8 ATS on the road against teams with a winning home record and Indiana's on a 6-1 ATS run off a SU loss.  We'll back the Pacers, our Friday Slam Dunk.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Purdue on Thursday night.  We feel Bill Self's first real run playing "small ball" has met its match.  Purdue is big and have the bodies to harass the Jayhawks' smaller players. KU's guards want to drive the paint, but Purdue has a pair of 7-footers to deny.  The Boilermakers dominated a small-ish Iowa State team on the glass and we expect more of the same in this one, along with strong looks in the paint on the offensive end.  Purdue enters on a 22-8 ATS run in non-conference action and the Big-10 has certainly represented themselves well.  Meanwhile, the Jayhawks have covered just seven of their last 23 against the physical Big-10 and they're on a 2-6-1 ATS slide as chalk of less than seven points.  We had KU on Sunday and while the final score of 90-70 over Mich State looks like a blowout on paper, it certainly wasn't until the final minutes.  It was a four point game midway through the second half and a six point game with about six minutes left.  Look for Purdue to take advantage of their size.  I'm grabbing the points with the Boilermakers, my Main Event.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Brooklyn Nets on Thursday night.  The Suns threw in the towel a while back, have dropped seven of their last eight SU, while failing to cover any of their last five games.  They've shut down Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight along with double digit per night rebounder Tyson Chandler.  The Nets expect to have Jeremy Lin back on the floor tonight and when he plays, Brooklyn has much better flow and chemistry.  The Nets have covered seven of their last nine, and won and covered their last game as chalk, a 120-112 SU/ATS victory over New York on March 12.  It also doesn't hurt that Brooke Lopez has been on fire over the last half-dozen games. Phoenix has won just nine of 35 road games this season, have dropped five in a row ATS. They're also 3-8 ATS in their last 11 meetings with Brooklyn.  We'll back the Nets minus the points on Thursday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer. 

I'm backing Michigan, my Main Event. The Wolverines are taking care of business by not turning the ball over, shooting nearly 50%, and keeping opponents possessions per game at a minimum. We also feel this is the game and matchup where the Ducks will miss Chris Boucher.  The Wolverines have big bodies who will force guys like Jordan Bell to defend the perimeter, not just in the paint.  And U-M doesn't allow many open looks at the other end on the deep perimeter, denying players the ball.  After stealing a win from the jaws of defeat thanks to URI's inability to close out, I expect the Ducks to bow out here.  Oregon is on a 1-5 ATS slide against teams with a winning record, while the Wolverines are on a 6-1 spread run, overall, and they're 7-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.  They're doing everything well and I expect it to continue.  I'm backing Michigan, my Main Event.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

Late release on Ole Miss minus the points.  Thanks & GL!  Scott.

I'm taking the points with Richmond, my NIT KO on Tuesday.  Winning games by margin has not been a common trend for TCU and they're laying around four baskets in this one.  TCU is 10-13 SU in 2017 (including the postseason) and just two of the 10 wins came by more than seven points. In fact, their average margin of victory is just 6.6 ppg.  These two teams, with home/road stats as the measure, are quite close on the defensive end.  However, Richmond is spectacular defending the trey on the road, holding hosts to 29.6% 3-point shooting and both teams average about seven steals per game.  Richmond has been outstanding on the offensive end on the road, making 48% of their shots, while averaging 17 apg.  We also expect TCU to have some trouble with T.J. Cline (18.1 ppg & 7.8 rpg) and ShawnDre' Jones (17 ppg).  The two have also combined for 322 assists on the season.  TCU overcame the loss of Jaylen Fisher against Iowa.  But while they won 94-92 in OT, the difference in the game came at the FT line where Iowa made just 8 of 19 in the close loss.  I do believe TCU will miss Fisher's assists tonight, leaving Alex Robinson to do most of the "dishing" himself. TCU enters on a 4-12 ATS slide against teams with a winning record and they're 1-4 ATS in their last five as home chalk.  Meanwhile, the Spiders are on a 6-2-1 ATS run as a road underdog.  I'm taking the points with Richmond, my KO on Tuesday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Dallas Mavericks on Sunday.  It's nitty-gritty time for the Mavs as they have fallen 3 1/2 games out of 8th place in the Western Conference standings.  But they're in a strong spot today.  In fact, while we're not big ATS situation bettors, today's spots are hard to ignore and we'll list a few.  Dallas is off a rock-bottom, 116-74 loss to the 76ers last time out. Both Rick Carlisle and Dirk Nowitzki spoke about how badly players and coaches performed, with adjectives flying.  I expect a bounce back, refocused effort today.  Dallas is actually 28-11 ATS under Carlisle when they're off a road loss by at least 20 points.  They're also on an 8-2 ATS run off a loss by 11 or more.  The Mavs beat Brooklyn 105-96 just nine days ago, falling short of covering as a 10-point favorite.  While this one is on the road, the line is much cheaper in the rematch and we note the Nets have been horrible ATS at home for the most part.  NBA teams in general have covered just 19 of their last 69 off a cover as a dog in a game they lost outright, provided they're facing an opponent off a double digit loss as a road favorite.  One final note: while Brooklyn has been playing better of late, they have been busy. This marks their 8th game in 14 days and the Nets have covered just nine of their last 36 in this spot, losing by an average score of 111-101.  The Nets have also allowed a hefty 114 ppg in their last 31 in revenge of a road loss. I'm backing Dallas minus the points, my Slam Dunk.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Dallas Mavericks on Sunday.  It's nitty-gritty time for the Mavs as they have fallen 3 1/2 games out of 8th place in the Western Conference standings.  But they're in a strong spot today.  In fact, while we're not big ATS situation bettors, today's spots are hard to ignore and we'll list a few.  Dallas is off a rock-bottom, 116-74 loss to the 76ers last time out. Both Rick Carlisle and Dirk Nowitzki spoke about how badly players and coaches performed, with adjectives flying.  I expect a bounce back, refocused effort today.  Dallas is actually 28-11 ATS under Carlisle when they're off a road loss by at least 20 points.  They're also on an 8-2 ATS run off a loss by 11 or more.  The Mavs beat Brooklyn 105-96 just nine days ago, falling short of covering as a 10-point favorite.  While this one is on the road, the line is much cheaper in the rematch and we note the Nets have been horrible ATS at home for the most part.  NBA teams in general have covered just 19 of their last 69 off a cover as a dog in a game they lost outright, provided they're facing an opponent off a double digit loss as a road favorite.  One final note: while Brooklyn has been playing better of late, they have been busy. This marks their 8th game in 14 days and the Nets have covered just nine of their last 36 in this spot, losing by an average score of 111-101.  The Nets have also allowed a hefty 114 ppg in their last 31 in revenge of a road loss. I'm backing Dallas minus the points, my Slam Dunk.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

Late release Saturday:  Rockets minus the points.  Thanks & GL!  Scott.

I'm laying the points with Florida State on Saturday.  We have the Seminoles power rated a solid 2.5 points higher than the line, which is a big deal over the course of a season for us.  No Edmond Sumner was no problem for Xavier on Thursday, but much of that had to do with yet another Maryland meltdown, the second time for the Terps in as many games.  Xavier actually trailed by six in the second half.  Florida State is loaded with Final Four talent, they just need to perform.  They have the shooters, defenders, the right type of depth, and one of our favorite playmakers in Xavier Rathan-Mayes. The Musketeers enter on a 4-9 ATS slide when getting points and they're 5-11 ATS against teams with a winning record.  I'm laying the points with Florida State, our Smackdown on Saturday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Lakers on Friday.  While we are playing on a struggling team, (Lakers), we are also playing what is the epitome of a sandwich spot with the Bucks off a win over the Clippers and a game with the Warriors on Saturday night.  The Bucks have also struggled on the road against teams playing less than .400 basketball at home (1-6 ATS).  Milwaukee has been overvalued against these teams and are so again tonight.  The Lakers are on a 5-0 ATS run in this series and we'll back them here.  The Lakers are my Friday KO.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing Marquette on Friday night. We have the Golden Eagles power rated a couple of points off the number and we also like the fact that Luke Fischer has been upgraded to probable.  Five Marquette players average in double digits in scoring and the team averages 83 ppg.  We liked the way South Carolina was playing on the defensive end earlier this season than they have of late and we expect Marquette to be able to "can" their deep shots.  SC star Sindarius Thornwell has been overworked and may find the matchups tough in this one.  We're backing Marquette to capture the win.  We have a Marquette team that's covered four straight against the SEC, while SC has dropped nine of their last 10 ATS, overall.  I'm backing Marquette, my Slam Dunk.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing Rhode Island, my Friday Shocker.  The Creighton Blue Jays were 18-1 with Mo Watson, Jr., running the point.  They're 7-8 since his injury and I don't believe they'll get passed the Rams.  While they have a couple of upperclassmen to handle the ball at times, the Jays are also relying on younger players to replace Watson and they're falling short of the one-time POY candidate's abilities.  CU's issues are magnified against URI's backcourt led by E.C. Matthews, the best guard on the floor in today's tilt.  Matthews could stand to create more shots for others, but he and Jared Terrell offer too much for the Watson-less backcourt to handle.  I do like Jays' leading scorer Marcus Foster for the most part, but when things aren't going perfectly, the Kansas State-transfer tends to take too many shots too early in the clock and he can blow cold, harming his team in key situations.  All of these factors add up to a Rhode Island win on Friday.  I'm backing Rhode Island, my Shocker.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Virginia Tech, my DogPound release.  Buzz Williams is doing a fine job in Blacksburg, including picking up big-time wins this season against teams at and above Wisconsin's level.  Despite a couple of injuries earlier this season, Va Tech still has five players averaging 9.5 ppg or more.  They love the trey, making 40% of their attempts on the season and that's one of our solid reasons for this play.  Va Tech not only makes 50% of their FGA away from home, but they also have made 42% of their 3-pointers.  Wisconsin's Achilles heel is deep perimeter defense, where they have allowed teams to make 43% of their 3-pointers away from home, which is even worse than their 311th-ranked 3-point defense, overall. The Badgers' poor play on the defensive end was their undoing against Michigan last weekend.  Obviously, this is a neutral site game, but that gives you an idea of what the Badgers have done outside of Madison. Va Tech has been money when getting points, currently on a 23-7 ATS underdog run and they're 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine against teams with a winning record.  Considering Wiscy's defensive troubles and the fact Va Tech has several "outs," led by Zach LeDay, we believe the underdog is going to leave the floor with a win.  Our play is to grab the points with Virginia Tech, our DogPound release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with SMC on Thursday, my KO release.  We've been spot-on with SMC, playing on the Gaels when they rocked BYU in the WCC tourney and we played against them when they got rocked by Gonzaga.  While we respect VCU, they certainly don't give SMC the matchup problems the Zags did. And we note SMC is 28-1 against teams not from Spokane.  SMC is big where they need to be big, should deny anything inside, and VCU can't shoot the trey. Offensively, the Gaels have a pair of players, each with more than 180 assists on the season.  SMC is on a 35-17-2 ATS run as a favorite of less than seven points, while VCU is 0-4 ATS as a dog in the same line range. After playing against the Gaels last time out, we're back on them on Thursday. I'm laying the points with St. Mary's, my Knockout.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Iowa Hawkeyes, my Wednesday KO.  South Dakota won the Summit League regular season title, but fell short in the tournament in a tough loss to South Dakota State. The Coyotes obviously played well in conference action, but things got a little ugly when stepping up in level of competition before league play began.  South Dakota lost to Houston, Nebraska, and Gonzaga by an average margin of 25 ppg.  The problem is defense, or lack thereof.  The Coyotes lost just 11 games all season, but allowed 81 ppg in the losses.  They want to run, which plays right into Iowa's desired pace.  The Hawkeyes average 86 ppg in Iowa City and 37% of their shot attempts are taken from behind the arc.  That's an important note because South Dakota allowed their hosts to make 40% of their 3-point attempts this season, giving up an average of 27 ppg.  At home, Iowa is a bit better on the glass than USD is on the road, and the Hawkeyes average almomst 19 apg with a decent 1.39 assists/turnovers ratio.  Iowa also has Peter Jok on their side and the Coyotes have no one to matchup with him.  Iowa has owned non-conference visitors under Fran McCaffrey, (25-13 ATS), outscoring the last 38 teams by an average of 83-62.  Our final concern, especially with NIT home chalk, is a team's motivation.  Iowa is ticked-off at the selection committee leaving them on the outside of the Dance and McCaffrey knows what it takes to motivate a team in this tourney, reaching the NIT Final in 2013.  We're laying the points with Iowa, our KO on Wednesday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Washington Wizards, our Mismatch release.  Dallas has been a disaster on the road and have dropped five in a row SU and four of five roadies ATS. They've also been cold as ice on the offensive end in their last two games. Dallas has troubles with teams like Washington, those who will attempt to up the tempo against the Mavs.  The Wizards are off an ugly loss, losing by 15 points at Minnesota, but they have covered four in a row off a SU loss by 11 points or more.  Washington is also on a 12-4 ATS run at home against teams with a losing road record and they need to keep winning if they're to continue their race for a 2nd place finish in the East.  Bringing even more urgency to the situation, after Friday the Wizards will play just four of their final 14 regular season games at home. I believe they'll handle the Mavericks by a spread covering margin.  I'm laying the points with the Wizards, my Mismatch release.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Colorado State, our Tuesday KO.  Two years ago, the Rams fell just short of a Big Dance invite and then fell to South Dakota State in the opening round, ending a 27 win season.  Last year, Rams' players and Larry Eustachy declined a postseason invite.  But after falling short in the MWC to Nevada, Eustachy says he wants to coach this Rams' version as long as possible and players like Gian Clavell, who was on the 2015 team, has stated he can't wait for the chance to atone for the NIT the loss to SDSU.  We know the Rams are motivated to be here. Charleston also just missed the Big Dance, falling to UNCW, unable to overcome the Seahawks' 53% shooting night.  Charleston doesn't shoot well and has their issues on the glass.  They'll face a good rebounding team on their home floor and a Rams' squad that holds guests to 40.9% shooting.  CSU owns the better depth on the offensive end and the best player on the floor in Clavell, who averages over 20 ppg and 6.1 rpg.  And while the Rams are on a 6-1 ATS run off a SU loss, the Cougars have dropped five in a row ATS when getting less than seven points.  I'm laying the points with Colorado State, my Tuesday KO.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Grizzlies on Monday, my KO release.  Memphis enters on a 0-5 SU/ATS slide, while the Bucks are on a 6-0 SU/ATS run.  We don't always play struggling teams laying points against positive streaking teams, but we do look for this situation more often than not. The Grizzlies are laying a couple of baskets and for good reason.  Despite being on the wrong side of an opposite streak, Memphis is still power rated seven points better at home in this matchup.  We believe Memphis hit rock-bottom against Atlanta last time out and will be ready to snap the skid. We note that teams off a double digit home loss are on a 57-27 ATS run against teams with two straight covers as chalk.  Meanwhile, the Bucks have covered just six of 19 on the road against teams with a winning record and they're 8-17 ATS on the road against teams that make at least six 3-pointers per contest.  Strong spot tonight and we're backing the Memphis Grizzlies, our KO release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing Troy on Sunday, our KO release.  When teams sweep a season series like Texas State did over Troy this season, I'll tend to look at the team that's going for a third straight win before making a move.  However, that's only if that team controlled both games.  That wasn't the case when these teams met this season.  Both were closely fought games and either team could have won either game, it just so happens TSU finished in the win column. But we like the way Troy is playing and the fact they're the better squad on the offensive end.  The Trojans also enter on a 13-4 ATS run against teams with a winning record and an 8-2 ATS run if those teams were playing better than .600 basketball, as TSU is doing. Texas State has not been a good dog, dropping four of the last five ATS and we'll back the short favorite in this one.  I'm backing Troy, my KO.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Grizzlies on Saturday, my Slam Dunk.  The Hawks are off a 105-99 win over Toronto last night and they have a date with the Spurs on deck.  Atlanta has covered just one of their last six games.  Most of all, we like to look at NBA teams who're struggling, yet favored over teams that have landed a couple of games in the win column.  That's the situation we have here.  ATL has also needed help from opponents, as evidenced by their 5-13 ATS slide against teams that turn the ball over no more than 14 times per game. ATL has allowed 109 ppg to decent ball-handling teams.  Memphis is on a decent 13-6 ATS run when playing with a day off between games and we like the position they're in tonight.  I'm laying the points with the Grizzlies, my Slam Dunk.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Milwaukee Bucks on Saturday, my KO release.  Tough spot for the T-Wolves after last night's hard-fought win over Golden State.  We do believe the Bucks, who also played last night, but had an easier time in the second half against the Pacers, outscoring Indiana 54-35, will be the fresher squad.  The Bucks are making a run at the postseason, sitting 8th in the East.  They're on a 4-0 ATS run in the second of back-to-back nights and on a 5-0 ATS run, overall.  Milwaukee is also on a 5-1 ATS series run.  I'm laying the points with the Bucks, my KO on Saturday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with San Diego State on Friday night.  We felt the 21 point deficit to UNLV in the tourney opener and the fact the Aztecs came all the way back to win the game was a jolt to the SDSU system.  In fact, if you want to break it down this way, the Aztecs are now on a 131-81 run in their last game-plus since trailing by 21 points.  They own the matchups in this one and are playing better offensive basketball than they were when they lost the two regular season meetings by one point in each game.  CSU certainly swept, but didn't come close to dominating either game.  SDSU led both games by double digits at the half, but couldn't hold either lead.  But in their last five games, the Aztecs have held opponents to 33.9% shooting, including 26.3% from behind the arc, while owning a +13.5 rebound margin per game in their last four.  Combine the defensive play with an uptick on the offensive end and we believe SDSU is the side tonight.  SDSU is 3-0-1 against teams playing better than .600 basketball, while the Rams are on an 8-23 ATS slide as a dog of less than seven points.  I'm laying the points with San Diego State, my KO release. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with UTEP, my Shocker on Friday.  Tim Floyd has done an amazing job turning this team around mid-season and they have now covered 14 straight games, including a 7-0 ATS run against teams playing better than .600 basketball on the season.  UTEP has also won 12 of their last 15 SU.  MTSU is a hot basketball team also, but the line is too steep in our opinion with our power ratings sitting 3 points lower than the books hung.  UTEP shoots well, (47%), and also takes care of business on the defensive end.  The teams are well matched and in fact, UTEP beat MTSU 57-54 in early February. We feel we'll see another relatively low scoring game with both teams paying attention to the defensive end, making the nine points worth taking.  I'm grabbing the points with UTEP, my Early Shocker on Friday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Baylor, my Beatdown release in the Big-12.  These teams split the regular season series with each team winning on the other's home floor.  The Bears won 77-68 as short chalk in Manhattan, having little trouble shooting the ball over Kansas State defenders.  K-State returned the favor in a 56-54 win in Waco in early February, but the situation was not too easy for the Bears.  Baylor was off a tough loss to Kansas, coming close to upsetting the Jayhawks at Phog Allen Fieldhouse.  You could see right from the start in the loss to the Wildcats that they were flat and emotionally drained off the KU defeat.  But the teams are on equal playing ground for this one and we believe Baylor's size and athleticism on the defensive end will propel them to a spread covering win.  K-State is horrible defensively on the deep perimeter and we'll be surprised if Baylor doesn't put up similar numbers to the first meeting of the season.  The Bears are on a 7-2 ATS run as a favorite of less than seven points and they're also 7-2 ATS as neutral court chalk.  Baylor has won four of the last five meetings, winning by an average margin of 13 ppg. I'm laying the points with Baylor, my Big-12 Beatdown.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm adding a late release on UC-Riverside plus the points on Thursday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott.

I'm laying the points with the Cavaliers on Thursday night.  Not a good performance by the Pistons last night, especially when the opponent was in a tough NBA situation.  We expect another rough outing for the Pistons, who're on a 0-6 ATS slide when playing in the second of back-to-back nights. The Cavaliers have dropped two straight and three of four games, outright, and are in revenge for a 106-90 loss to Detroit earlier this season.  LeBron James had that night off, but we expect a fired-up effort here.  Before the most recent loss, the Cavs had beaten Detroit in five straight meetings by an average of more than 11 ppg and scored in triple digits in all five.  I believe we're in for another spread-covering Cavs' win tonight.  I'm laying the points with the Cavaliers, my NBA Main Event.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with CS-Northridge, my DogPound play on Thursday afternoon.  These teams split the season series with CSUN winning by five in Fullerton, while CSUF won by eight at Northridge.  In fact, Fullerton's win was the most recent game for both teams.  And we note that teams in revenge in their conf tourney opener have been "money" if both team's most recent game was against each other.  The team off the SU/ATS loss has cashed at a 58% clip the last 120 times. However, if the matchups and power ratings didn't fit, I wouldn't make the play.  The fact is, my power ratings have CSUN as the short favorite, while the books have made them the underdog. CSUF has not fared well off a conference road win, covering just 15 of the last 49 times. CSUN has won four of the last five meetings SU/ATS and they're on a 12-3 ATS run in the last 15 meetings. I'm grabbing the points with CS-Northridge, my DogPound release.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Pistons on Wednesday, our KO release.  Detroit has a shot to make a dent and exact some revenge in what has been a one-sided series of late.  We believe they are in a great spot to accomplish that goal.  The Pacers lost last time out and have now dropped nine of their last 12 games.  They're also in a tough league-wide spot, home off a five game road trip with only one day off between games.  The trip included games at Atlanta, Houston, Miami, and San Antonio, not exactly an easy road swing.  Detroit has been playing better basketball of late winning two straight and 10 of their last 15.  They've covered 11 of their last 16.  Detroit has covered four straight with a day off between games, while Indiana is on a 1-5-1 ATS slide at home against teams with a losing road record.  We like the current form of Reggie Jackson and expect him to lead the charge tonight. We're grabbing the points with the Pistons, our KO on Wednesday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm grabbing the points with Lehigh, my Top Shocker on Wednesday.  The Lehigh Mountain Hawks won both of this season's meetings and by decent margins, including an 82-71 win at Bucknell. Lehigh has four players averaging in double digits in points scored per game and Tim Kempton leads the way averaging 20.4 ppg, while pulling down 10.1 rpg.  The Bison have had no answer for Kempton and Austin Price this season.  The two combined to average 42.5 ppg & 14 rpg in the two meetings.  As a team, Lehigh made 55 of 117, 47% of their FGA against Bucknell, including 19 of 36 3-pointers.  They also out-rebounded the Bison 73-58.  Lehigh held Bucknell to 41.5% shooting, including just 13 of 36 from behind the arc.  As you can see, Lehigh owned significant advantages in this season's meetings and we expect more of the same.  Lehigh ranks 27th in the nation in FG percentage, 23rd from behind the arc, and made 78.1% of their FTA. We like them as a dog in this one.  I'm taking the points with Lehigh, my Top Shocker on Wednesday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Arizona State, my Main Event on Wednesday.  The Sun Devils won both of this season's matchups, and while they weren't blowouts, we feel they shouldn't be getting points.  If anyone can get the program on track it's Bobby Hurley and even Arizona coach Sean Miller praised the job he's doing this past weekend. ASU has four players averaging over 12 ppg and a fifth player averages 9 ppg. Torian Graham and Tra Holder are two of the better offensive players in the Pac-12 and Kodi Justice has caught fire of late.  Meanwhile, Shannon Evans is the best disher on the floor.  The Sun Devils should have more success today after nailing 44.5% of their 3-pointers in the two wins over Stanford this season.  The Cardinal are one of the worst defensive teams on the deep perimeter.  They've allowed teams to make 42.2% of their treys when Stanford plays away from home and 47% of their FGA.  Meanwhile, the Cardinal have made less than 40% of their own FGA in those games, including just 28.5% from behind the arc.  Neither team is going to scare people on the defensive end, but the Sun Devils are the much better offensive team.  ASU enters on a 9-1-1 ATS run off a SU loss.  They're also 5-1 ATS off a double digit home loss and the Devils are on a 4-0-1 ATS run in the series. I'm taking the points with Arizona State, my Main Event.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Gonzaga on Tuesday night, my KO release.  We had SMC last night and wrote about their head-to-head matchup advantages over BYU and that we thought they'd come through for a third straight time this season.  Tonight, the advantages go against SMC.  Gonzaga had little trouble in both meetings this season and have a clear advantage in the backcourt.  If the Gonzaga guards take care of business like they should, we believe they'll gain the season sweep, cover the spread, and win the WCC tourney.  SMC is known for their defensive play, but the Bulldogs are dominant on the defensive end, also, and own the better offensive players, overall. SMC enters on a 0-4 ATS slide as an underdog, while the Bulldogs are on a 14-3-1 ATS run against teams playing better than .600 basketball. Gonzaga has won 11 of the last 13 meetings SU.  They have covered 11 of the last 12, and their last 10 wins over SMC came by an average of 17 ppg. We'll lay the points with Gonzaga, my Tuesday KO.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Thunder, my late release on Tuesday. Analysis is typically not included with late releases, so we may get the play to you as quickly as possible. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with St. Mary's on Monday night.  The Gaels easily swept the season series, winning by 13 points in both games.  Matchups are greatly in their favor as we saw in the two meetings and it really is up to the Gaels to exploit the matchup advantages.  No reason to think the players won't respond again.  SMC has made nearly 40% of their 3-pointers against BYU this season, due in part to their bigs being able to step outside. BYU can't collapse inside because of the Gaels 25th-ranked 3-point shooting, which allows SMC to do damage in the paint when needed.  The Cougars were never in either of this season's meetings, even trailing by double digits at the half in Provo and by as many as 25 points during the second half.  One of the amazing stats is that SMC dominated both games while attempting just 14 free throws in each game.  The Gaels enter on a 7-1 ATS run when laying 7 to 12.5 points, while the Cougars are on a 6-18-2 ATS slide as a dog in the same spread range.  BYU has covered just four of their last 29 as a neutral court dog.  Finally, the chalk in this series has not only won, but covered six straight.  I'm laying the points with St. Mary's, my Monday KO. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.