NFL Archive | |||||||
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
09-24-18 | Steelers v. Bucs +1.5 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -105 | 150 h 41 m | Show |
Taking TAMPA here. I did a video way back in mid-July taking the Bucs in Week 1 over the Saints. Lo and behold not only did they roll the Saints, the come back vs the rested Super Bowl Champs and deliver another outright win as short dogs. Now they get the 0-2 desperate Steelers and again, an ever so slight home dog. I know Pitt needs this win. But this team is in turmoil right now. No Bell. Players calling out Bell. Bryant twitting about getting traded to prove he's good. That is a lot of off shield non-sense. Not to mention their on field play which hasn't been all that spectacular. Enter TB. I said I like FitzMagic behind center better than Crab Legs. Guy is a gritty vet. We saw him lead the Jets to some wins with his veteran presence and players around him. Same spot here. Jackson and Evans are good players with some time under their belts. Something to prove to nay-sayers. OJ Howard had 6 TDs last year. He's a good TE who I think should get to 10 TDs if Fitz is here the entire year. Just a whole different atmosphere in Tampa. Players saying if they are winning, Crabby shouldn't get the starter spot back. Give me the Bucs again. 5* Best Bet TAMPA BAY BUCS |
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09-23-18 | Patriots -6 v. Lions | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -110 | 126 h 53 m | Show |
Taking the PATRIOTS tonight. Not wasting any time getting down on this game. Will probably see some 7s by game time. Hate taking a public team like this, especially in an ESPN spot like this. But I can't fade Brady and Hoodie off a loss. Especially when we see Brady yelling at teammates. Pats don't lose many game a year. Losing to a tough defensive team like the Jags on the road is one thing. Them losing to this Lions team. Not likely. Ex DC faces mentor. Give me BB all day long. This Lions defense hasn't looked good in its first 2 games. Matt STATSford seems to be good only in garbage time. This game to me has 37-20 written all over it. 5* Best Bet NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS |
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09-23-18 | Bears v. Cardinals +6 | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 54 h 19 m | Show | |
Taking ARIZONA. Going ugly, sure. But do you really have that much faith in this Bears team laying this on the road? This is a big number for a young team. I know they have a good defense. And that is a nice edge. Would it be shocking to see Josh Rosen come in ala Baker Mayfield style and pull out the win this afternoon? I faded the Cards last week against the Rams. But like Week 1, I am back on them at home. It would really help the cause if we used our great RB more. That would really make life easier for whoever is behind center. We have seen the Bears in back to back prime time games. Blowing a lead vs GB and then beating Seattle, who, people still bet on like it's 2014. Public will be all over Chicago. Arizona off one of the worse performances of the season so far. Might also be looking at the Under 38 here. But right now, 4* Money Maker ARIZONA CARDINALS |
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09-23-18 | Cowboys v. Seahawks UNDER 41.5 | 13-24 | Win | 100 | 24 h 15 m | Show | |
Going UNDER the total. Ok. So Dallas has a decent defense I think. Seattle offense nothing special. Cowboys OL once the best in the league, has a couple issues. We won't even start on the lack of fire-power on Dallas O. Until I see a lot more out of the Cowboys offense, I think the Under is an auto-play for me right now. 4* Total Money UNDER Dallas/ Seattle |
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09-23-18 | Saints +3 v. Falcons | 43-37 | Win | 107 | 118 h 21 m | Show | |
Taking the SAINTS early. Should probably go ML for +150 the way we have cashed NFL. But we aren't greedy. We grind out day in, day out. I know NO has not looked good this year. I faded them Week 1. Backed them Week 2. And here we are again. Big edge for me is the Saints staff. We have seen this Atlanta offense sputter for over a year now with their play calling. Maybe Sark opens things up. Even if that is the case, NO has some horses of their own. We haven't really anything close to an 'A' game from New Orleans. Falcons a very good team, but I think they clipped here at home. 4* Money Maker NEW ORLEANS SAINTS |
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09-23-18 | Titans v. Jaguars UNDER 39.5 | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 69 h 55 m | Show | |
Going UNDER the total here. Somehow the Titans pulled out a win with Blaine Gabbert under center, 20-17 over the Texans. Even in a potential let-down spot off a big win over the Pats, I can't see this defense giving up 20 points. They have double revenge from last year. That is a nice little extra motivation. Where this line is at, it shows me that Mariotta will probably be under center. I would think it would be closer to 9-10 if it is Gabbert facing this defense. Fournette still a little banged up. I can see the Jags going through the motions and still pulling out a 23-9 game here. 4* Total Money UNDER Titans/ Jags |
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09-23-18 | Packers v. Redskins +3.5 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 68 h 11 m | Show | |
Taking the REDSKINS. Faded these guys in Week 1. Was going to fade them in Week 2 but was worried about any hurricane remaining weather with dome Colts in town. But this is an easy play for me. One. I like Alex Smith. That guy is not going to do anything stupid to hurt you. Two. How about GB's first 2 games this season. A huge come from behind win over the Bears when Rodgers went out, then returned. Last week, they blow a lead. Had a bad call against them. Should have lost on FG. End up in a tie. How do they respond off 2 last second games like that. And hit the road for the first time this season. Plus, you see this line, some 2.5s even. You know just like me. You hear in your sleep, some uniformed troll saying how easy Packers are this week. Same line they said last week in Philly / Tampa game. home dog please. 4* Money Maker |
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09-23-18 | 49ers +7 v. Chiefs | 27-38 | Loss | -105 | 68 h 5 m | Show | |
Taking the NINERS. Faded these guys Week 1 vs Minny and was sweating bullets before pulling out the cover. But Jimmy G can play. And this is a nice number to grab on SF as dogs. KC defense not exactly world beaters. Early line on this was 2, 2.5. Now we are 6.5 and 7. Niners as a dog will always be something I look for. Jimmy G 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in his brief career. Against a defense that gives up some points, I'll grab the dogs. 4* Money Maker SF NINERS |
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09-23-18 | Broncos v. Ravens -5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 51 h 15 m | Show |
Taking the RAVENS early. Catching Denver in their first road game of the year. 1-9 ATS and SU last 10 on the road. Coming cross country. Off a last second win over the Raiders. We have extra rest. Broncos in my eyes, paper tigers. I think the Ravens are the better team. Plain and simple. Coaching edge in our favor. Defense should be able to contain Keenum. Denver held off a bad Seattle team. They need a miracle comeback vs a Raiders team that in its first 2 games, seem to only show up for 1st halves. No such luck today. 10* Money Bomb BALTIMORE RAVENS |
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09-20-18 | Jets v. Browns -3 | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 26 h 24 m | Show |
Taking the BROWNS. Yeah - You can say it is tough backing a team as a FG fave when they haven't won a home game since Dec 2016! We can say Cleveland could, or should be 2-0 if they had a decent field goal kicker. We can say with certainty that the Browns do have a good defense. And that my friends, is why we are rolling with Cleveland. Tough spot for a rookie QB, on the road, and a short week for the icing on top. Was also thinking about the Under but will just attack the small home fave and build our bankroll. 5* Best Bet CLEVELAND BROWNS |
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09-17-18 | Seahawks v. Bears UNDER 43.5 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Going UNDER the total. Got hurt yesterday with our totals, but will attack again under the number. Bears have a good defense. I think they get after Russell Wilson tonight. This Seattle O has some problems. Wilson is a very good QB, and has solid stats on MNF. But the problem is the rest of the team just is not at that level. Off a terrible game at Denver (470 yards allowed), now in a back to back road situation. I think HC Pete Carroll gets the troops to rally off that game. Don't see many points. First team to 20 probably wins this thing. Seattle under in 5 of their last 7 on the road. Bears under 6 of their last 7 overall and under 6 of their last 8 at home. 4* Total Money UNDER Seattle/ Bears |
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09-16-18 | Giants +3 v. Cowboys | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -107 | 81 h 1 m | Show |
Taking the GIANTS tonight. Last week we faded NY in our big GOW and cashed our 10* on the Jags. Well we are on the G-Men for Sunday night. One, I am a Cowboys fan. But I don't let teams I like blind me. Garrett has to go as HC. I have been saying this for the last few years. Anyone who has purchased plays gets a full run down on why he is a terrible coach. Like I said last week. I thought Coughlin would really fire up the players to avenge his firing. Tough spot for NYG against a very good defense. Dallas defense is ok, but nothing like the Jags. Eli has some players to help with ODB back and Barkley in the backfield. Can't count out the banged up Dallas OL. Giants never had problems generating pressure on Cowboy QBs. Dallas O in turmoil. Stacked Ds all year to shut down Zeke and force Dak to beat you with one of the worse WR groups in the league. Giants 5-2 ATS last 7 in the series. 10* Money Bomb DALLAS COWBOYS |
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09-16-18 | Cardinals v. Rams -13 | 0-34 | Win | 100 | 17 h 41 m | Show | |
Taking the RAMS. Will lay this very hefty number. And I'm a dog guy. Especially with a division foe like this. But Arizona looks bad. I had them last week. And maybe this number is pumped up a FG based on how poorly they looked last week. But do we expect a big offensive game here? Fact is, (we had Raiders/Under) the 2nd half of MNF the Rams found their groove on both sides of the ball. This is their home opener. Against a team they demolished last year by a combine score off, stop me if you have heard this 100 times already this week, 66-15. What has changed? Cards bring in a new HC in Steve Wilks, a DC guy. Preseason is one thing. Everyone playing hard for the new regime. Regular season a lot different as every team is playing hard, on every play. Arizona O build around their stud RB. But if Rams get off to a fast start. Which, judging by last year, and 2nd half Monday night, they will. That renders their opponents best player useless. 23 points in the second half. Defense with 3 INTs. I get Bradford is a decent game manager. And you have Fitz at WR, Johnson at RB to try to milk the clock and score some points. But are they putting up over 20? Because I don't see their defense holding the Rams to less than 34. This has 34-13 written all over it. 40-17 wouldn't shock me. 4* Money Maker LA RAMS |
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09-16-18 | Chargers v. Bills UNDER 43 | 31-20 | Loss | -102 | 108 h 44 m | Show | |
Going UNDER the total. Chargers coming out east. Early start. I know LAC allowed some points last week. But we can't overreact to that. KC has some weapons, Bills not so much. This team was going to struggle this year. And they will. 47-3. Both defenses with something to prove after giving up a combined 85 points last week. As of this writing, I am actually leaning Bills and the points here on Tuesday night. 4* Total Money UNDER Chargers/ Bills |
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09-16-18 | Dolphins +3 v. Jets | Top | 20-12 | Win | 100 | 73 h 11 m | Show |
Taking the DOLPHINS here. Have to say. Had the Under in their Game 1. After a few weather delays, we got a shoot out. We did cash the Jets as a nice dog outright. But I think we our getting some value in this spot. Jets looked great. But let's be honest here. Rookie QB now making his second start. Every team looks bad in this division because the Patriots sit a the top. But I think Miami will toss some new wrinkles at the rookie. The defense isn't a bad unit. Offense is decent enough. Again, I think we have extra value based on the Monday night factor. 5* Best Bet MIAMI DOLPHINS |
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09-16-18 | Eagles v. Bucs UNDER 44 | 21-27 | Loss | -109 | 107 h 28 m | Show | |
Going UNDER the total. Now. Had Falcons and Under in the Eagles first game. I expect the defense to show up again. And I had Tampa and the points in their monster win on Sunday. 48 points. And this opens at 44, some 43.5 around. Look. Eagles have a defense. And, I thought TB would have an improved D. But Foles is not Dome Drew Brees. And as much as I like FitzMagic as a steady vet, now 3-1 in his Tampa starts, this is a tougher battle. Philly with extra rest can only help the defense better prepare. While the Bucs let it all hang out vs a division rival. First glance has me looking towards the Eagles. But sometimes when a line looks to go to be true, it often is. for now 4* Total Money UNDER Eagles/ Bucs |
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09-16-18 | Vikings -120 v. Packers | Top | 29-29 | Push | 0 | 72 h 53 m | Show |
Taking the VIKINGS. Rodgers plays, doesn't play. Wouldn't make much difference to me. Like I said last week in taking Minny. Best defense in football. Bears are pretty good. But GB gets another angry division foe. I think Minny is reppin' the NFC in the Super Bowl. I am not that high on Packers defense. Rodgers could be fired up. Vikes knocked him out of game last year on a 'cheap shot.' But we do know that Minny has no qualms about taking shots on the QB. And real fast to last week vs SF. A bit sloppy in the cover. But maybe they were just a tad more focused on this match-up instead. And as long as we are on last week. How about that comeback. Bears, whoever. down 20-0 3 minutes left in the 3rd? That is a lot of gas being used up in the tank. 5* Best Bet MINNESOTA VIKINGS |
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09-16-18 | Chiefs v. Steelers -4.5 | Top | 42-37 | Loss | -122 | 25 h 34 m | Show |
Taking the STEELERS. Not going to over react to 5 TOs on the road and a tie at Cleveland. They could have, and probably should have won that game anyway. Now they are home. Big Ben totally different QB at Heinz field. Numbers back it up. Bell loss not the problem in their last game. KC will be in another shoot-out. Difference being, Pitt has a defense that can make stops. Back to back road games for KC. I think this is a 10pt win for the home team. 8* Sure Shot PITTSBURGH STEELERS |
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09-13-18 | Ravens v. Bengals UNDER 45 | 23-34 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 41 m | Show | |
Going UNDER the total tonight. Starting out last week with Falcons and the Under. Will be using Cincy as a Free Pick though. Ravens have lost 7 of the last 9 SU (doggy is 6-2 SU/ ATS L8) in the series averaging less than 20ppg. In fact, huge revenge spot as the Bengals knocked Baltimore out of the playoffs on a 4th down play to end the year and put the Bills in the playoffs in Week 17. We have a pair of division rivals facing off. Two teams that know each other pretty well. Cincy on a 7-3 Under run at home. Ravens 8-3 Under run last 11 in AFC North play. Under has cashed 4 of the last 5 in the series. 4* Total Money UNDER Ravens/ Bengals |
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09-10-18 | Rams v. Raiders UNDER 49.5 | 33-13 | Win | 100 | 337 h 59 m | Show | |
4* Total Money UNDER Raiders/ Rams |
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09-10-18 | Rams v. Raiders +4.5 | 33-13 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 54 m | Show | |
Taking the RAIDERS. Think these guys can score a bit. I am on the Under 49.5 already, but am coming in on the puppy. Not sure what we see out of the Rams as this is a non-conference throw away game with Arizona on deck. Enough points to roll the dice. 4* Money Maker OAKLAND RAIDERS |
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09-10-18 | Jets +6.5 v. Lions | 48-17 | Win | 100 | 269 h 18 m | Show | |
Taking the JETS here on Monday night. Think this team is going to surprise some people this season. Think they have some players on both sides of the ball. For the Lions, a new regime. New HC takes over. And to be honest, I don't think he is some defensive wizard. Wasn't like the Patriots were a Top 5 defense in his time over there. Yeah, they are paying their QB a ton of cash. But I can't see this group being a .500 team. I see this 6.5 and can here every square in NJ at one of the new sportsbooks saying, uh, Jets are crap, Bowles sucks. No way the Lions don't win by a touchdown. 4* Money Maker NY JETS |
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09-09-18 | Redskins v. Cardinals UNDER 44 | 24-6 | Win | 100 | 125 h 38 m | Show | |
4* Total Money UNDER Redskins / Cardinals |
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09-09-18 | Cowboys v. Panthers -2.5 | Top | 8-16 | Win | 100 | 53 h 22 m | Show |
Taking CAROLINA. Will grab the Panthers at this price. I like Dallas. Am a Cowboys fan. And they have much better ATS on the road than at home. But this team to me, isn't going to be that good. Unless a couple WRs really have huge years, this is a lost season. Load up the line, control Zeke, let Dak have one of his WRs beat you. That plays well into a good Panthers defense. Not a huge fan of Cam. But the guy has the weapons around him to get us the win and cover this afternoon. 5* Best Bet CAROLINA PANTHERS |
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09-09-18 | Redskins v. Cardinals -119 | Top | 24-6 | Loss | -119 | 53 h 15 m | Show |
Taking ARIZONA. Pretty sure everyone is sleeping on the Cards because of the QB play. But this team is not that bad. Always a solid defense. They have a very good RB to take the pressure off said QB play. I actually like the new HC. You know the defense will just as good or better than past editions. Not expecting what I saw in Pre-Season from ARZ. That is more to me. A new HC, guys playing hard all game. And other teams going through the motions. Will really have to work to get those kind of TOs from Washington. Redskins have their own new signal caller in Alex Smith. And he's a guy I have back with mixed results over his career. And also a guy who isn't in the habit of bad INTs. At this price, even against AP at RB, who might run angry since Cards cut him last year. Think we have enough to get the outright win this afternoon. 8* Sure Shot ARIZONA CARDINALS |
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09-09-18 | Steelers v. Browns +6 | 21-21 | Win | 100 | 145 h 24 m | Show | |
Taking the BROWNS. How many times did this guy kick my nuts in last year with lines I thought were too short. I will subject myself to abuse just once this opening weekend. 4* Money Maker CLEVELAND BROWNS |
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09-09-18 | 49ers v. Vikings -6 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 145 h 20 m | Show | |
Taking MINNESOTA here. Wish I grabbed this earlier for myself. This is about as high I will want to go with Minny. I think this is a very good team. Great coach - probably the most underrated guy in the league. Defense always a top unit. But I have to tamper expectations because we have a new OC in town. I still think this is a win for us. SF is getting a bit too much love in my eyes. Everyone loving Jimmy G. Again, Minny HC will have something special to unleash on the youngster. 4* Money Maker MINNESOTA VIKINGS |
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09-09-18 | Steelers v. Browns UNDER 46.5 | 21-21 | Win | 100 | 121 h 18 m | Show | |
4* Total Money UNDER Steelers/ Browns |
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09-09-18 | Jaguars v. Giants UNDER 43.5 | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 121 h 14 m | Show | |
4* Total Money UNDER Jags /Giants |
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09-09-18 | Titans v. Dolphins UNDER 45 | 20-27 | Loss | -102 | 121 h 13 m | Show | |
4* Total Money UNDER Titans/ Dolphins |
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09-09-18 | Bucs +10 v. Saints | 48-40 | Win | 100 | 36 h 8 m | Show | |
Taking TAMPA. I know this is crazy. But I like the Bucs more with FitzMagic behind center. Veteran guy. Smart. Won't lose the team. He has good weapons to work with. This is a bundle of points. Tampa defense isn't that bad. TB went 2-1 with Fitz last season. The line is a bit inflated as everyone will be hammering the Saints with Winston out. They should be able to mount some pressure on Brees. Just once in the last 8 match-ups have the Saints won by more than 7. Can't lay double digits in division play. Dog time. 4* Money Maker TB BUCCANEERS |
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09-09-18 | Jaguars -3 v. Giants | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 85 h 24 m | Show |
Taking the JAGUARS. Also like the Under in this game. But we are all in on Jax. First off. You don't think that Tom Coughlin has been telling these guys to stick to NYG on every play. The guy was run out of town and replaced by a joke of a coach. Jags were already miles ahead of the GMen in talent. Yes, they drafted a nice RB, signed some OL, have a healthy ODB. But do we really think Eli, a statue, is going to be able to buy some time and make something happen against this pass rush and secondary. Jags defense will dominate. The offense will do enough to win this by double digits. Coughlin gets revenge against a team he hoisted Super Bowl Trophies with and got a kick in the ass out the door as a thank you, while the crappy GM stayed on board. 10* Money Bomb JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS |
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09-09-18 | Bengals +2.5 v. Colts | Top | 34-23 | Win | 100 | 45 h 42 m | Show |
Taking the BENGALS. Yeah, The Colts are 46-30 with Luck behind center. But did you see anything in his brief August games that say this is a guy ready to come under live fire? Bengals have missed the playoffs last 2 years. Marv clearly on the hot seat as many though he would be canned last year. We saw 53 points from these guys in Week 4 of pre-season! That is normally under territory. But we saw that the 'starters' for Cincy held a 20-7 lead at the half over the Colts. Look - Pre-Season doesn't matter much to me when the calendar says September. But Indy, I think has a long way to go with Luck getting up to speed with his new HC and the playbook. Cincy always has a tough defense. Daulton has some nice weapons. He can beat bad teams. This isn't Pitt or NE that he is battling. 5* Best Bet CINCINNATI BENGALS |
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09-06-18 | Falcons v. Eagles UNDER 46 | 12-18 | Win | 100 | 239 h 59 m | Show | |
4* Total Money UNDER Falcons/ Eagles |
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09-06-18 | Falcons +3 v. Eagles | 12-18 | Loss | -113 | 174 h 24 m | Show | |
Taking the FALCONS. I know it is easy to take Philly. Defending champs, Home opener. Crowd pumped up. They have guys who missed out on the Super Bowl run returning to the lineup. But the QB play is iffy for me. We now that Wentz is out for a big. Foles got banged up this August. Falcons have revenge from the playoff loss. And playing outside in Philly now, as opposed to later in the winter or January is a big difference. Atlanta has a pretty solid defense themselves. The offense isn't too shabby. I am also on the under 46 in this game. 4* Money Maker ATLANTA FALCONS |
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02-04-18 | Eagles v. Patriots -5 | Top | 41-33 | Loss | -106 | 332 h 21 m | Show |
Going to lock in early here with the PATRIOTS. 5* Best Bet NE PATRIOTS Alright everyone. Thanks for the follow this year. Going to cap off a great NFL season with a final winner for our pockets. 40-14 good for 74% since December 1. In that time, 11-4 with our Top Plays. Best Bets, Sure Shots and Money-Bombs. But I am not going to put out a huge 'name' play, just because it is the final game of the year. This, as always, the longest write up of the year. Let's get to it - As a big dog guy, especially with NHL and MLB, almost by instinct, I am pulled towards Philly. And why not. One of those 4 Top Game losses was Philly over NYG. I like Foles. As I said in previous write-ups, and last weeks Over analysis. Do people forget 27 TDs from this kid a couple years ago. The guy can play in the NFL. Not saying he is Wally Pip'ing Wentz out of a job, or Brady Bledsoe'ing for the younger crowd. But he can play. And let's be completely honest. Eagles probably rate better overall across the board except for the QB position. Plenty of offense for Philly vs, at best, a middle of the road Patriots defense. Yes. The Hoodie gets the, oh, Mr Adjustments. What a great defense. Come on. Bend don't break defense carried by the greatest QB/ HC combo of all-time. This total has already ticked up, and I still lean Over in this game. I am sure the sharps are going to be lying in wait. Seeing if the public comes heavy on NE as they normally do. Maybe we see 4.5 - Maybe we see 6.5. I am 2 weeks out with my play. When we grab dogs, like the Jags, we think they win outright. Which, maybe they should have. We will leave questionable play calling to the talking heads. Back to NE. Look. I am not a huge Pats fan. I did have a Top 10* on them to roll the Titans. I took the +9.5 out of the gate in the Championship Game. As much as I see Foles getting better. I see Brady cementing a legacy, if he hadn't already. If this was Wentz/ Brady. I would probably be on the Eagles. But it isn't. These guys, at this stage, look for any slight, to come out and piss people off. So we have all heard of that story about the owner/coach/QB - Next game. Utter destruction of the Titans. What better way to really get under peoples skin and win b2b Super Bowls. Did anyone miss that Hoodie didn't even hold onto the AFC Championship Trophy? Is that crazy? That is all you need to know about this team. That is how focused they are. Philly will get everyone's love since they are facing the Evil Empire. The, We wear Dog Masks. No respect. I get it. House money. Back-up QB. Rally around the role. Understood. And that isn't all it has going for them. I think they have the much better defense. Special teams are probably a wash. Again, this is why I am liking the Over a bit also. Plenty of weapons for Foles. Dome setting should help. As much as there are checks to cross in the Philly box. I just can't go against this HC/QB combo in a Super Bowl. Brady has proven time and time again. Champion. Down 10. No problem. 28-3. No problem. Do we have to go back and see the stats vs the Legion of Boom? Do we remember how 'legendary' that Seattle defense was suppose to be? 13-15 2TDs in the 4th quarter as Seattle was for 2 straight Super Bowls. Maybe the Eagles are like the Giants. Getting pressure. Knocking Brady off his spot. Or. Brady gets the ball out and carves them up. I think the really underrated unit is the Patriots OL. These guys are quietly, a solid bunch. So. I am going PATRIOTS as a 5* BEST BET here in Super Bowl action. I think they get this done by a TD or more. My FREE PLAY is on the UNDER 48.5 -- |
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01-21-18 | Vikings v. Eagles OVER 38.5 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 96 h 22 m | Show | |
Going OVER the total. It can be easy to look at this and think under. We have probably 2 of the Top 5 defenses in the league playing today. But this is still a low total. It was 38 and I was staring at it. I see a game in the 20s. For everyone who wants to knock Foles, the guy can still QB in this league. Do we forget 27 TD 2 INT year for these same Eagles? He has some weapons that Minny needs to contain. Vikings themselves can move the ball also. I just think everyone thinks Philly can't do anything offensively with what they have seen their last 3 games. 15-10, 6-0 loss to Dallas, 19-10 MNF Raiders game. Foles was 6-10 vs the Rams in relief of Wentz. He tossed 4 TDs vs the Giants the next. Raiders and Dallas were games they were going through the motions. Especially with nothing to prove vs the Cowboys. I won't be shocked to see this 30 points by halftime. 4* Total Money OVER Vikings / Eagles |
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01-21-18 | Jaguars +9.5 v. Patriots | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 113 h 37 m | Show | |
Taking the JAGUARS. So. We had the Jags over the Bills. And we faded them last week vs the Steelers. Not really the way I want things to be working out on Jax. We cash very nicely with the Patriots as our Top 10* Money-Bomb over the Titans. That being said. There were reasons I liked/disliked them in spots. We won't rehash those. That is the past. Let's get to it. -- Defense. Clear edge for the Jags. Arguably the best in the league this year. Yes. We have seen Big Ben last week, and prior the Seahawks and SF put some points on the board on these guys. And Brady is the best in the biz. I probably shouldn't write Brady and Bortles in the same sentence. Look. Marrone is familiar with NE after going 2-2 ATS vs them when he was HC in Buffalo. It sure as heck can't hurt to have Tom Coughlin, who beat these Pats TWICE in Super Bowls in case you have been under a rock. Much like those Giants teams, defense is this teams strength. And like Marrone's old Biils teams, running the ball, is what dictates this offense. I know. I know. Pats looking like the last go around. Internal power struggles. I said last week, the Hoodie was ready.. On to Tennessee. But the fact is this. Both OC and DC are probably out to HC gigs. The HC and QB have been the best in the biz for a long time. You have to think this is their swan song. Either way. I think this defense keeps us in the game. Weather shouldn't be a problem. It will be warmer here than it was in Pitt last week. Maybe some rain. Will also be on the under here. 4* Money Maker JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS |
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01-21-18 | Jaguars v. Patriots UNDER 46.5 | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 113 h 36 m | Show | |
4* Total Money UNDER Jags/ Pats |
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01-14-18 | Saints v. Vikings -3.5 | Top | 24-29 | Win | 100 | 150 h 7 m | Show |
Taking the VIKINGS. Real simple for me. One. We are rested. Two. We have the much better defense. Three. We have seen the last 2 weeks that New Orleans has had trouble stopping Tampa and Carolina. A pair of teams that are pretty generic with their offenses. - Now they face a Minny team that has a bunch of options for their QB to turn to. This is no knock on Brees. I just thin that their defenses injury and depth will catch up with on the road, and vs a team with probably the most under-rated HC in the league. 5* Best Bet MINNESOTA VIKINGS |
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01-14-18 | Jaguars v. Steelers -7 | 45-42 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 51 m | Show | |
Taking the STEELERS. Have to play a little on Pitt. First we have that revenge working for us. Utterly wrecked at home with Big Ben tossing, what, 10 INTS! - Seriously. That was a joke. Yes this Jags defense is very good. But the offense is putrid. And I had them last week. I thought they can put up points. Because they have. But I have seen Seattle and SF both carve this team up recently. This is an experienced Steelers team. Lots of explosiveness on offense. We are laying just a TD. I thin this should be a 10pt game for us. 8* Sure Shot PITTSBURGH STEELERS |
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01-13-18 | Titans v. Patriots -13 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 33 h 20 m | Show |
Taking the PATRIOTS. I'll lay this beast. And try to keep my reasons brief. So Titans down 21-3 to KC. KC loses best player to take advantage of poor Tenn pass defense. Titans get, let's just say, a few calls in their favor. Won't get into detail. Safe to say that everything that needed to happen, happened. Enter the Pats. We are going to go against Hoodie? In a week where we see a problem between Brady, Kraft and Hoodie. It's mass chaos in New England. Coach vs Trainer vs Owner vs QB. Forget that nonsense. The defense has been an absolute monster down the stretch. Toss out those early games. 14ppg since. 'All in on Tennessee' - Belichick 10* Money Bomb NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS |
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01-13-18 | Falcons v. Eagles UNDER 41 | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 7 h 60 m | Show | |
4* Total Money UNDER Falcons/ Eagles |
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01-13-18 | Falcons -3 v. Eagles | Top | 10-15 | Loss | -100 | 146 h 19 m | Show |
Taking the FALCONS today. You can grab the 2.5, but I will go 3 just to take back a little extra cash. So, we cashed on Atlanta last week. I am not sure why everyone is shocked they won. As I said. Against a rookie HC and basically, a rookie QB, I would take a veteran QB and HC playing with a chip, the size of a Super Bowl Trophy, on their shoulder. And what do they walk into here. Only an Eagles team that has been average at best. Now, I like Foles. In fact, I backed Philly over the Giants and while they won, they couldn't cover. Then we had that Monday night game vs the Raiders. Finally, the Nate Sudfeld game. Enter our Falcons. This isn't last years team. They are playing much better defense. The fact is, with no Wentz, this game is a toss up. ATL the fave really based on the QBs. Both defenses are pretty solid. And both teams can run the ball. I am just coming back to what they learned last year. Philly, like the Rams, are rolling the dice with house money, up-starts. Bright futures. Falcons on the other side of that. Veterans. Looking to redeem themselves. 5* Best Bet ATLANTA FALCONS |
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01-07-18 | Panthers +7 v. Saints | Top | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
Taking the PANTHERS. So. We have the old, it's hard to beat a good time 3 times playing out. Saints won 34-13 and 31-21 this already this year. But it is January football. I am not a fan of Cam at all. But I like his legs and the rest of the RBs vs this depleted Saints defense. Not a lot of depth and they are missing 5 starters. We saw the Bucs march down the field last week as time was running out to score a win. On a side not, that TD sent it Over the total and we go 7-2 instead of a super 8-1. I just think that we have seen Carolina knock off the Pats and Vikes. A pair of pretty good teams. We cashed with the Falcons over these same Panthers. Everyone saying, oh Carolina has a lot to play for. Well what about Atlanta. They were playing for their season. (had them yesterday also) - Road team 23-10 ATS last 33 in the series. Underdog 6-1 ATS last 7 in the series. Panthers 0-6 ATS last 6 in the series. Something has to give. I am betting on Cam being 'Superman' and not 'Laptop Man' - 8* Sure Shot CAROLINA PANTHERS |
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01-07-18 | Bills v. Jaguars -8 | 3-10 | Loss | -115 | 96 h 37 m | Show | |
Taking the JAGUARS. Forget the line here. To me, this game is pick the winner. And if you think the Bills cover, then you think they win outright. I don't think they win outright. I think the Jaguars defense is a beast. I think with a gimpy McCoy, if he even plays, we know he is not near 100%, that Taylor will force some things. That plays into the Jax strength, their defense. Yes, it is frightening laying near double digits with Blake Bortles. Jags have won their last 5 at home, last 3 putting up 35ppg. 4* Money Maker JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS |
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01-06-18 | Falcons +6.5 v. Rams | 26-13 | Win | 100 | 79 h 47 m | Show | |
Taking the FALCONS here. Now. I know that the Rams had a great year. Rookie HC takes off with a 2nd year QB who looked like a bust and turns 4-12 into 11-5. But those two combinations is exactly why I am on the visitors in this spot. Atlanta really changed gears down the stretch going 6-2. Rams not exactly with a huge home field edge here either. Falcons couldn't make a stop in the 2nd half of the Super Bowl. But the defense is what has improved this year while the offense has taken a step back. I do like this Rams team. But all I have heard from people is, how don't the Rams win by a touchdown? For me, this is too many points to give to a playoff tested experienced team. Don't be shocked if Falcons win this outright. 4* Money Maker ATLANTA FALCONS |
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01-06-18 | Falcons v. Rams UNDER 48.5 | 26-13 | Win | 100 | 79 h 36 m | Show | |
4* Total Money UNDER Falcons/ Rams |
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01-06-18 | Titans v. Chiefs -8 | Top | 22-21 | Loss | -110 | 91 h 48 m | Show |
Taking the CHIEFS here. Man oh man with all these lines wild-card weekend. Normally I am shying away from near double digit faves come playoff time. But I see a pair of totally different teams. Yes. We cashed the Titans as our Top 10* Money Bomb last Sunday. But we don't fall in love with teams. We like numbers. Value. We started the season backing the Titans over the Raiders. And we will end their season fading them vs the Chiefs. KC a bit different now with their new OC calling plays. I just don't see Tennessee being able to hang close here. I think that KC gets a big edge on special teams that gets us this 10-14 pt win. 5* Best Bet KC CHIEFS |
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12-31-17 | 49ers +2 v. Rams | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 104 h 14 m | Show | |
-- I know this line has moved since we put it out -- Still take SF - They will cover a TD -- Taking the NINERS. Well. Faded the Jimmy G show last week. That didn't work out well. But we see they aren't playing for a higher pick. I said in games we took SF that they like Jimmy and their HC. Rams I think will rest up here after a fine season and get ready for the playoffs. 4* Money Maker SF NINERS |
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12-31-17 | Saints v. Bucs UNDER 50.5 | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 39 m | Show | |
4* Total Money UNDER Saints / Bucs |
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12-31-17 | Bengals v. Ravens UNDER 40 | 31-27 | Loss | -103 | 66 h 39 m | Show | |
4* Total Money UNDER Bengals / Ravens |
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12-31-17 | Raiders v. Chargers UNDER 42 | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 66 h 39 m | Show | |
4* Total Money UNDER Raiders / Chargers |
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12-31-17 | Jaguars v. Titans -3 | Top | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 56 h 4 m | Show |
Taking the TITANS. Not sure where the Jags motivation is? They are locked into the 3 seed. They host a home game. Even off that SF loss, I can't see them risking getting guys injured. Maybe they play a half. I had Tennessee last Sunday. Win and they are in. I'll back the small home fave. 10* Money Bomb TENNESSEE TITANS |
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12-31-17 | Panthers v. Falcons -4 | Top | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 20 h 0 m | Show |
Taking the FALCONS here. Man. All I am hearing is talk about the Panthers. I know this isn't the same Super Bowl team as last year. The offense clearly not the same. I know Julio is banged up. But hell. It is Week 17. Playoff spot on the line. Time to man up. They win, they are in. They lose. And they need Arizona to beat Seattle. Just take care of business yourself. As for Carolina. They have some possible seed movement. Anywhere from 2-6. Not sure how they play it. They get down early, they might pull back. They just played a really tough game vs TB needed everything to win. Atlanta 7-2 ATS last 9 here at home vs Panthers. 5* Best Bet ATLANTA FALCONS |
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12-31-17 | Bears v. Vikings UNDER 39.5 | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 62 h 25 m | Show | |
4* Total Money UNDER Bears/ Vikings |
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12-31-17 | Jets v. Patriots UNDER 43.5 | 6-26 | Win | 100 | 62 h 24 m | Show | |
4* Total Money UNDER Jets/ Pats |
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12-31-17 | Texans v. Colts -5.5 | 13-22 | Win | 100 | 17 h 56 m | Show | |
Taking the COLTS. So Indy has lost 6 straight and 9 of 10. Yet, are favored. Look. Normally this a game I would mark a giant X through during the regular season. But final game of the season. Most likely, final game of Pagano's reign for the Colts. I will back the home team. As bad as this team is, likely assured the 3rd pick in the draft, they haven't quit. Oh, they blow 10pt leads like that is what you are suppose to do to win games. But they aren't mailing games in. Can't see them doing it here. Not with Frank Gore also probably heading out the door. They will play for that old timer for sure. Texans have been riddled with injuries all year. Not even sure they get off the plane. This is the game the Colts should win by 10+. Not get up 17-0 and somehow lose 21-20. 4* Money Maker INDIANAPOLIS COLTS |
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12-25-17 | Raiders v. Eagles UNDER 46.5 | 10-19 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show | |
Going UNDER the total tonight. Where the heck is any motivation for the Raiders? 3000 miles from home. 30 degrees. Cold, miserably Philly on Christmas night. It's reported that Del Rio has a 50/50 shot at coming back next year. I see this playing into a 24-10, 27-14 type affair. 4* Total Money UNDER Raiders/ Eagles |
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12-25-17 | Steelers v. Texans UNDER 45.5 | 34-6 | Win | 100 | 71 h 57 m | Show | |
4* Total Money UNDER Steelers/ Texans |
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12-24-17 | Seahawks v. Cowboys -4.5 | Top | 21-12 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 16 m | Show |
Taking the COWBOYS this afternoon. Tough laying with Dallas at home especially with their terrible HC. But we are getting a fresh and angry Zeke back. That is enough to move the needle for us to Dallas. This Seattle team is in turmoil. Giving up tons of points. 72 points allowed last 2 weeks! Defense players tweeting at each other. Wilson is a great QB. Guy, by himself, has this team still alive for the playoffs. Now, we have seen Dallas and their brain dead HC crumble with playoffs on the line before. But I can't undervalue the return of Elliot. That is a huge boost. Coming off a 35pt home loss, you expect Seattle to be angry. But the defense is a shell of its former self. My thinking. Zeke, fresh off his break, bullies Seahawks late and Dallas wins this by 10. 5* Best Bet DALLAS COWBOYS |
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12-24-17 | Giants v. Cardinals -3 | Top | 0-23 | Win | 100 | 47 h 10 m | Show |
Taking ARIZONA. Simple thinking for me here. Giants mail it in here on Christmas Eve. The Eli show comes to an end at home, against rival Redskins. That is the game the Giants go all out. This has been a brutal year all around for NY. The coach. The QB. The WR. The defense. Everything. Good news is they will draft high. Last week they left it all on the field in a near win vs the Eagles. They can't get up like that again. Not a chance. Not 3 weeks in a row. Next week. We'll look to NYG. Both teams playing for pride. Final home game for the Cardinals. Give the fans an early Christmas gift with an easy win! 10* Money Bomb ARIZONA CARDINALS |
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12-24-17 | Jaguars v. 49ers UNDER 42 | 33-44 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 31 m | Show | |
4* Total Money UNDER Jags/ Niners |
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12-24-17 | Jaguars -4 v. 49ers | 33-44 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 35 m | Show | |
Taking the JAGUARS. Man. Every where I look I see the Niners are back with Jimmy G. I had these guys with Jimmy the Gent. I get it. They are playing hard. I wrote this in previous write ups. They are playing hard for the new coach, and their QB. But as they say. Defense travels. We can mock Bortles all day long. And who can blame you? Fact is though, the guy has been very good lately. 900+ yards and 7TDs 0 picks last 3 games. And the Jags have been getting into the end zone. Not getting FGs like SF. Jimmy G is moving the ball, but trading 3 and 7 just doesn't add up to Ws. We saw this Jax defense frustrate Big Ben and a pretty good Steelers team to the tune of 5 INTs. Back to how our defense travels. This defense has 51 sacks. SF has given up 42. Good for 8th worse in the league. Jags have allowed just 21 (4th best). SF at tied for 6th least sacks. Jags 2nd in INTs with 20. SF 5th worse with 7. 4* Money Maker JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS |
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12-24-17 | Chargers v. Jets UNDER 43 | 14-7 | Win | 100 | 43 h 27 m | Show | |
4* Total Money UNDER Chargers/ Jets |
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12-24-17 | Rams v. Titans +7 | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 43 h 20 m | Show | |
Taking the TITANS. Had these guys last week ML and they let me down. Now I will grab them as a nice home puppy. Rams off a huge win over Seattle, 42-7. That was their statement game. Much like when we had the Jags over the Seahawks as their statement game. Now, we can see a bit of a let down. They have the Niners at home to close out their season. I just think with a desperate Tennessee team, this is too many points. Titans 9-1 SU their last 10 at home. Have to take the home team this afternoon. 4* Money Maker TENNESSEE TITANS |
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12-24-17 | Lions v. Bengals UNDER 44.5 | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
4* Total Money UNDER Lions/ Bengals |
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12-24-17 | Dolphins v. Chiefs -10.5 | 13-29 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
Taking the CHIEFS today. Hate laying huge numbers like this. Went 1-1 last night with the big faves. But this NFL season is crazy. I think the gap between the teams is this big. And not just this game. Look across the card. Just huge lines. As a big dog guy, you can only hold your nose so many times as you get burned during a season. So for here. Win and in KC gets the nod. I thought Miami would be a playoff team. I thought Cutler back with his old coach would produce nice numbers. They have some decent WRs in Miami. They had a decent home run hitting RB before trading him away. The defense has talent. And it will get them a new HC on Black Monday in 2 weeks. Andy Reid isn't calling plays on offense and lo and behold they scored 30 in 2 of the last 3 games. I think Dolphins are going through the motions. We saw how good KC can be as they roared out of the gate. And we saw them flat out awful. They are on the upswing again. Dolphins have been bad on the road. They pulled out a miracle win for us in Week 1. Lost to Jets 20-6. Shut out by Ravens 40-0. Lost by 24 at Carolina, 18 at NE, 8 at Buffalo. Pulled a gem out of the butts in Atlanta 20-17. We know they aren't scoring 20. Chiefs averaging nearly 30ppg last 3. 4* Money Maker KC CHIEFS |
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12-23-17 | Vikings -8 v. Packers | 16-0 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show | |
Taking the VIKINGS. Again. I will lay the big number. Not happy about it. But Minny is playing for a bye week, and a shot at home field throughout the playoffs. Possible since Eagles lost their QB. Ya never know. Now. If GB had A-Aron behind center. Different story. But that went out last week in their loss. No Rodgers. That is a dagger. They might be OK for a half. But I think the reality sets in. Fact is Hundley has been terrible. OT wins at Cleveland and over TB. Not exactly Vikings type teams. Did we see them get blanked by Baltimore? The only game he looked half-way decent in was against the Steelers. And we now that Pitt plays down to teams. And the fact that they admitted to looking ahead to New England. I think McCarthy is a terrible coach. It is obvious. No Rodgers, the team is pathetic. Zimmer is a great coach. They will be playing for blood tonight. Just look at this line. They are begging us to take the Packers. 8-9pt division home dog rivalry game. I'm not buying it. This is a deflated Packers team. 4* Money Maker MINNESOTA VIKINGS |
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12-23-17 | Colts v. Ravens -13 | 16-23 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 37 m | Show | |
Taking the RAVENS. I'm going say this. I can make a case for taking every dog this NFL weekend. But then we will be dead broke. Like last December, the faves continue to crush. We have picked our spots with faves. Some cash, some lose. Laying basically 2 TDs in the NFL is not a recipe for long term success. But I look at Ravens as a team still alive for the playoffs. They get a Colts team that has an OL that has gotten their QB sacked 43 times this season. We had them last week on Thursday. They couldn't contain Brock! You would think they would play with some pride at home. You figure their HC is done after this season. Ravens win out, and are in the playoffs. 5 straight losses for the Colts. They blew another double digit lead, at home to boot! Indy hasn't scored more than 17 points in a game in over a month. Baltimore somehow averaging 30ppg their last 7 games. Ravens have forced 33 TOs, most in the league. I think our D is good for a pair today, and that should generate at least 10 extra points for us. 4* Money Maker BALTIMORE RAVENS |
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12-17-17 | Cowboys -3 v. Raiders | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 29 h 44 m | Show | |
Taking the COWBOYS. Would be easy to grab the home dogs, but not happening. Dallas sees playoff hope here. They have strung together a couple wins. They get their RB back soon. Eagles lose their QB. They have a playoff shot if they can win out. Raiders a lost season. I said at the start of they year when I had the Titans in Game 1 that the Raiders were lucky a lot last year. You can't sustain that 2 years in a row. Not going to get every break, or 1 point win or 2 pt conversion. Cowboys defense strong lately forcing TOs. 4* Money Maker DALLAS COWBOYS |
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12-17-17 | Jets v. Saints -15.5 | 19-31 | Loss | -110 | 89 h 59 m | Show | |
Taking the SAINTS. Yeah. I will lay more than 2 TDs with Brees at home. First. We have extra rest from that Atlanta loss (Though we cashed the Falcons) We catch the Jets coming off getting shut out and losing their QB. They will turn to Petty. Good luck in the dome kid. Bottom line for me here is this. New Orleans needs to keep winning as the Panthers 9-4 and Falcons 8-5 are right on their heels. Things are getting crazy in the NFC with Wentz out and Rodgers on the mend. And who knows about Dallas running the table to get back in the hunt. Saints 17-2-1 ATS last 20 at home when they are sporting a winning record. Final though on this one. Brees tossed that INT in the end-zone real late last week. You know that is killing him. He is coming out breathing fire today. Won't be shocked to see 14-0 end of 1st quarter en rout to a 40+ point day. 4* Money Maker NEW ORLEANS SAINTS |
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12-17-17 | Eagles -7.5 v. Giants | Top | 34-29 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
Taking the EAGLES. 9-1 ATS last 10 for Philly. Yes, they lost their QB. But Foles is no slouch. Guess people forget the guy had 27 TDs and 2 INTs back in 2013 in 13 games, 10 starts for these same Eagles. And right now, let's be honest. He is probably better than Eli. He has the better parts around him that is for sure. Really for me though is this. Giants are done. Last week would have been the game for them. New coach. Eli back. Home vs Cowboys. Nope. Doors blown off in the 4th. You can hear any life being sucked out of the building. 5* Best Bet PHILADELPHIA EAGLES |
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12-17-17 | Bengals v. Vikings -10.5 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 20 m | Show |
Taking the VIKINGS. Two teams in total opposite directions. Cincy off getting smoked at home by the Bears. Where is there motivation? Their season was lost 2 weeks ago when they blew the game vs the Steelers. There will be, or least should be, a coaching change for the Bengals. Do we really think they rally around the coach? Time for a change from the top down. Minny home after 3 straight road games. Still have a lot to play for. I can't see their defense giving up more than 10-14 points today. 8* Sure Shot MINNESOTA VIKINGS |
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12-16-17 | Chargers v. Chiefs -105 | Top | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 30 h 20 m | Show |
Taking the CHIEFS here. Cashed big last week on KC. We will head back to them today. We also had the Chargers last week. We can toss out the trends. Chiefs 6-2 ATS last 8 but LAC 4-1 ATS last 5 in Kansas City. Andy Reid 17-7 ATS as home dog. 5* Best Bet KC CHIEFS |
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12-14-17 | Broncos v. Colts +125 | 25-13 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 44 m | Show | |
Taking COLTS and going MONEY LINE. I mean, you want 2.5/ 3 fine. But My thinking is we aren't going to lose by 2. They should have pulled out the blizzard game last week. Woulda coulda shoulda. That being said, how often are we saying Jacoby Brissett is the best QB on the field. And can we slow down on Denver. The defense hasn't been great all year. So they beat the Jets. The Jets that were suppose to go win-less or win 3 games this year. The Jets, who we cashed over KC the week before. That go from home dogs, to away favorites. I am sorry I over-looked the Broncos last week as I went 8-0 Thursday through Monday. I know Frank Gore was a beast last week in the snow. And he's what, 40 or something. Ok, not that old, but a short week for a grinder like him would hurt since he carries the Colts offense. But the guy is a border line Hall of Famer. Denver is scoring about 15ppg their last 11 games. I think we can put up at least 2 TDs here at home. Broncos 0-8 ATS last 8 on the road. 1-8 ATS last 9 overall. How about 0-6 ATS last 6 in Indy and a crazy 1-9 ATS last 10 in the series. Home dog for me on the short week. 4* Money Maker INDIANAPOLIS COLTS |
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12-11-17 | Patriots v. Dolphins UNDER 48 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 36 m | Show | |
Going UNDER the total tonight. Alright. As I write this we could be looking at nice 6-0 day of NFL action if the Ravens, up 31-20 right now, hold on for us +5. That being said. Still a nice December run as we are 12-1 in the month heading to that Sunday night game. I'm going to tell you that I am 11-12 on my totals this NFL season. But I can't lay double digits on the road, and I can't get in front of this NE beast. And what really sets this team apart lately is their defense. Remember how we said Pats were done after opening the year 0-2 at home. Blowing a lead to KC. Having to score in the final seconds to beat a rookie QB at home against the Texans. Letting Carolina drop 33 on them at home. The defense was terrible. Well. In 8 games since they haven't allowed more than 17 points. They have really turned it up lately. 3-8-16 points allowed their last 3 road games. As I said in our Ravens write up. Big game on deck vs Steelers up next for NE. Do we think this team is pulling out all the stops here? They show up and win by 10 just going through the motions. I think Gase is out this year. The Cutler job was brutal. Yeah. They exploded for 35 last week vs Denver. 2 defensive TDs and 2 safeties. Do you like those chances against Brady? I think Miami still has a decent defense. So I don't think NE gets to the mid-30s. And I can't see Miami getting more than 20. 4* Total Money UNDER Pats/ Dolphins |
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12-10-17 | Ravens +5 v. Steelers | 38-39 | Win | 100 | 20 h 25 m | Show | |
Taking the RAVENS here. One really thing I like here is that Pitt is off that Cincy game. Man they hate Cincy. Almost as much as they hate Baltimore. Tough to come off such a physical, and emotional game like that. Now to get up for another hated division rival. Steelers appear, not to play down, but to always be in a game late. Maybe they are begging us to take Baltimore and Pitt rolls 34-17. But Ravens 4-1-1 ATS last 6 in the series. Pitt won 26-9 back in October. They have the Patriots on deck. I know they battled all the way back over Cincy. But the talk has been all New England and home field. I'll take the flyer on a division road dog. 4* Money Maker BALTIMORE RAVENS |
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12-10-17 | Seahawks v. Jaguars -2.5 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 20 h 35 m | Show |
Taking the JAGUARS. Look. We cashed Seattle ML last week. But that was a home game. It was a totally disrespect game with a line starting at 6. This is a tougher game. First. Flying to the opposite coast. They get a break with a 4pm start. But they have a much bigger division game on deck vs Rams. And let's be honest here. This Jags defense is a beast. They will eat up this OL. Wilson will make a couple plays. But I think he is going to make a couple costly mistakes also. I think this is actually a 'statement' game for Jacksonville. They hear that Bortles is garbage and they can't win with him. I think they rally and show the league they are for real. We have to win by a FG not 2 TDs. 5* Best Bet JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS |
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12-10-17 | Redskins v. Chargers -6 | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 16 h 54 m | Show | |
Taking the CHARGERS here. Easy to jump on LAC and say. Oh, no way they don't win by TD. I feel that every square will be on this play. And believe me. I have taken my lumps with dogs all year while the public has reaped the rewards of season of favorites. I'll tell you why I like this. Defense. Yes. Defense. LAC has been winning with their defense. 0-4 start for them. How about those first 2 losses. OT loss on the road to Jags. They have given up more than 24 points once on the year. To Philly (26). Not the Patriots in New England where they blew a cover losing 21-16. I can't take anything away from Cousins. Guy just fills the stat sheet. But I think Bosa (11.5 sacks) Ingram (8.5 sacks) get to him behind his banged up OL. Chargers 4th in sacks and 4th in INTs on the year. 4* Money Maker LA CHARGERS |
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12-10-17 | Titans v. Cardinals +3 | 7-12 | Win | 100 | 16 h 47 m | Show | |
Taking ARIZONA today. Now. Many times you will see just grab ML when there are +2.5/ 3 points dogs. Not in this case. As much as I want to, I have to ease up just a bit. This is more of a fade play on the Titans. How the heck are these guys 8-4 and have been outscored on the season. They get another end of game cover on a break away run. I'm not sold. And that is completely opposite of how I started the season on them over the Raiders. Arizona knocked off the Jags here. Is this team better? I don't think so. Plus, how can you lay points with Mariota on the road? 3rd road game in 4 weeks for Titans, while this is 3rd straight at home for Cards. 4* Money Maker ARIZONA CARDINALS |
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12-10-17 | 49ers +120 v. Texans | 26-16 | Win | 120 | 13 h 60 m | Show | |
Taking the NINERS going ML. You can grab 2.5 or 3. But for me, I don't play a dog thinking they are losing by a FG. I think they win outright. As the year winds down I look for good teams to play on. And by good, I mean spot plays. Niners injected new life with Jimmy G last week. No TDs. But the guy had the offense moving. Bears defense at home is pretty tough. We saw them knock off Pitt, Carolina and nearly the Falcons and Vikings. So forgive me if I think he can put a couple in the end-zone vs this Texans defense. I see no quit in SF. Forget their record. They play hard for their coach and now have their QB behind center. Same can't be said for a lost Houston season. Defense again lost with injuries. The loss of Watson at QB, huge. What a job he did. 4* Money Maker SF NINERS |
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12-10-17 | Raiders v. Chiefs -3.5 | Top | 15-26 | Win | 100 | 89 h 25 m | Show |
Taking the CHIEFS this afternoon. We cashed the Jets last week over KC as we had a nice 6-1 of NFL action. I think we start off today just like last Sunday. Andy Reid handed over the reigns of the offense and Alex Smith aired it out for 4 TDs and 366 yards. We have revenge for that crazy 31-30 loss back in Oakland. Go youtube that ending. Tough for us KC backers. We know that the Chiefs have allowed more than 20 points once (21) in their last 11 home games. After a 5-0 start, the desperation is reaching a fever pitch. Remember that Oakland was in the same desperate hole on Thursday night. They were 2-4 having dropped 4 straight. Now the shoe is on the other foot. 8* Sure Shot KC CHIEFS |
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12-07-17 | Saints v. Falcons +109 | 17-20 | Win | 109 | 29 h 52 m | Show | |
Taking the FALCONS. So we had the Saints in a nice win in our 6-1 Sunday of action. But like I always say. It is what people see last. They see New Orleans winning, and the Falcons struggling at home vs the Vikings. This is the season for Atlanta. With a 45% of making the playoffs, they need to win 3 of 4 to have a chance. And facing NO twice and finishing up in Carolina, they will have a shot at getting in. Give me the desperate home team. 4* Money Maker ATLANTA FALCONS |
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12-03-17 | Eagles v. Seahawks +200 | 10-24 | Win | 200 | 24 h 22 m | Show | |
Taking SEATTLE and going ML. Heck. At 3 maybe I would be interested a tad in Philly. But there is no way I am laying a near TD with this group on the road. Not in this spot. This is a tough place to play. I know the defense is missing a lot of talent. I am not running down their IR list or injury report. Seattle isn't an elite group anymore, but they are good. And this is a pretty disrespectful line if you ask me. And I hate Seattle. I try to go out of my way to find a reason to fade them. But I will grab Wilson in this spot. The kid makes plays. 8 straight wins and covers for Philly. I am bucking that trend and calling home dogs outright on Sunday night. 4* Money Maker SEATTLE SEAHAWKS |
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12-03-17 | Panthers v. Saints -4.5 | Top | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
Taking the SAINTS. Yeah, the win streak is over. But losing to the Rams was expected from me. This is their must win game. They already took care of Carolina on the road and went on a nice run. They win this one and they wrap up the division like an early Christmas gift. Panthers with a lucky cover last week. I think they are in for a battle today. Saints bringing a pretty good run game to counter Brees and his accurate arm. Granted, the NO defense is always leaky. But Cam can bring a clunker when times get tough. 10* Money Bomb NEW ORLEANS SAINTS |
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12-03-17 | Browns v. Chargers -13.5 | 10-19 | Loss | -108 | 98 h 39 m | Show | |
Taking the CHARGERS today. Yeah. Big number. Last week we lost with the Bears and Dolphins as big dogs. Pulled out Bills. That being said. The Browns aren't either of those teams. This franchise is a train wreck. 1-26 SU last 27 games. We laid the number with Cincy last week over Cleveland. Let's not forget. Browns BEAT the Chargers last year. What an embarrassing loss for the franchise! Payback time. 4-17 ATS last 21 for Cleveland. Chargers in a groove. Extra rest with win over Cowboys on Thanksgiving. Playoffs are in site. 4* Money Maker CHARGERS |
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12-03-17 | 49ers +3 v. Bears | 15-14 | Win | 105 | 40 h 15 m | Show | |
Taking the NINERS here. Should probably just go +140/160 in the ML this afternoon. Look. I just think we have 2 teams, organizations if you will, heading in opposite directions. Where the Bears look to be moving on from Fox, SF is firmly behind its new hire. The players will be extra motivated with Jimmy G getting his first start. The guy looked good in his only starts. Granted. That is with the Hoodie directing the attack. Also. This Bears offense is anemic. How can you trust them laying any points. They had 6 rushing yards last week. Again, I am not saying SF is Philly. But I think we have at least the 'spark and motivation' factor with our QB. I'll take the 1 win Niners. 4* Money Maker SF NINERS |
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12-03-17 | Bucs v. Packers -2.5 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 40 h 9 m | Show | |
Taking the PACKERS. Obviously, we had a nice showing from GB last week in Pitt. I hate just going off 1 game. But after 6 games, you would think he is grasping, or at least, getting better in the system. And let us not mistake Tampa for some great team. I think that HC Koetter could be given his walking papers at the end of the year. The Bucs give up the most yards per game. Tough to not like GB at home laying such a short number. 4* Money Maker GREEN BAY PACKERS |
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12-03-17 | Colts v. Jaguars -9 | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 17 h 14 m | Show | |
Taking the JAGS. Can't believe I am backing Bortles laying this number. But the defense is no joke. And at least for us, the Colts are a complete joke. Jags with the road shut-out 27-0 in Indy. Now home, off a pair of back to back road games going 1-1 ending with a loss in Arizona last week. I think they come out angry. I think that 7-2 in conference play, they need every win they can get with the Titans breathing down their necks here in the South. Jax with 10 sacks in the first meeting. Colts still having problems on the OL as the Titans sacked the QB 8 times last week. Jags 3-0 SU/ ATS after a loss this year winning each game by at least 21. 44-7 over Ravens. 30-9 over Steelers and 27-0 over these Colts. 4* Money Maker JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS |
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12-03-17 | Chiefs v. Jets +3.5 | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 17 h 9 m | Show | |
Taking the JETS here. Might even go +150 ML today. No way you can step on the KC train right now. Are you playing the they are do card? I get they have some nice weapons. But the run game has been awful. The QB play terrible. And the coaching is just not getting it done. Jets have played hard every game for their HC. This is the joke team that was suppose to go 0-16 or win 3 games this year. Jets have blown 4 4th quarter leads this year. They should be undefeated ATS at home. 4* Money Maker NY JETS |
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11-30-17 | Redskins v. Cowboys OVER 44 | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 47 h 18 m | Show | |
Going OVER the total here. So. Both these guys on regular rest as they both played on Thanksgiving. Redskins pulled out an ugly win. Cowboys laid an egg in ugly loss. Never have I been a fan of Jason Garrett. Guy is trash. We have all seen the outscored by 72-6 in 2nd half last 3 games. But the guy is a terrible coach. People want to rip Romo. Man. If the guy had a coach who could game plan maybe he would have won a playoff game. Instead, you sent Romo out there to win it on his talent. Well. Dak isn't Romo. And when you have a banged up OL and no RB, it doesn't matter who is behind center, you are in trouble. The defense has been leaky for umpteenth years. Whatever limited hope for a wild-card berth is there, both 5-6 teams will be, safe to say, desperate tonight. I nearly went Redskins. I can see Cousins to Doctson for 3 TDs today. 4* Total Money OVER Redskins/ Cowboys |
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11-26-17 | Saints v. Rams -2 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 46 h 7 m | Show | |
Taking the RAMS. LA home after taking an ugly loss vs the Vikings. But make no mistake. Minny defense at home is 100 times tougher than a Saints unit, on the road to boot. Saints had to come all the back with some OT to score a win over the Redskins. Again, Washington defense a notch below who the Rams trot out. Finally. New Orleans outside, no turf. 4* Money Maker LA RAMS |
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11-26-17 | Browns v. Bengals UNDER 38.5 | 16-30 | Loss | -112 | 115 h 56 m | Show | |
4* Total Money UNDER Browns/ Bengals |
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11-26-17 | Bears v. Eagles UNDER 44 | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 115 h 56 m | Show | |
4* Total Money UNDER Bears/ Eagles |
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11-26-17 | Bills +10 v. Chiefs | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 99 h 55 m | Show | |
Taking BUFFALO here. So. We had the Giants ML last week over KC. We bucked all the Andy Reid off bye trends. So what has changed? How are they a double digit favorite? These guys have stunk up the place since their fast start. Now, a little turmoil with the Bills. They bench Taylor. Backup tosses 5 INTs in a half. But we get Tyrod today. I think he will want to really stick it to his coach. He is looking for a payday after the season. KC defense not threatening at all in my eyes. 4* Money Maker BUFFALO BILLS |
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11-26-17 | Dolphins +17 v. Patriots | 17-35 | Loss | -115 | 99 h 51 m | Show | |
Taking the DOLPHINS here. Uh. Man. These guys again. We had them for what ,5 straight weeks. Up and down. Nearly impossible to get in front of the Pats and Brady train. But this is a lot of points. NE home after spending 2 weeks away. They stayed in Denver to prep for the Mexico atmosphere. So this is a welcome home for them. Schedule makers have these guys meeting up in 2 weeks on a Monday night. I think we see Pats go through motions. While Moore could get nod for Miami and would want to prove he can QB in the NFL. 4* Money Maker MIAMI DOLPHINS |
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11-26-17 | Browns v. Bengals -8 | 16-30 | Win | 100 | 99 h 44 m | Show | |
Taking the BENGALS. I know that I shouldn't be laying this number with Cincy as they are a team I really can't get a grasp on. But they have some guys on offense who can actually score some TDs for us. Browns 1-8 ATS last 9 games. How about 1-25 SU under Hue Jackson! 4-43 SU last 47. Holy Cow. My 11 year old has better numbers in Madden. Bengals a perfect 6-0 ATS last 6 in the series. 4* Money Maker CINCINNATI BENGALS |
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11-26-17 | Panthers -5.5 v. Jets | 35-27 | Win | 100 | 43 h 45 m | Show | |
Taking the PANTHERS. I know the Jets are nice feel good story. We cashed them and have faded them. But I think a little reality sets in as the season goes on. First. Carolina is a playoff team. They seem to peaking. Jets were said to be an 0-16 team, though I was thinking they would win about 4-5 games. So here we are. As much blood Bowles has been getting out of this rock, the law of averages can, and will catch up to the Jets. They just aren't that talented. 4* Money Maker CAROLINA PANTHERS |
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11-26-17 | Bears +14 v. Eagles | 3-31 | Loss | -105 | 42 h 29 m | Show | |
Taking the BEARS. Big number. Gotta grab it. So, we cashed Chicago a few times already this year (Falcons, Steelers). They have beaten the Ravens, Steelers and Panthers who are a combined 20-10. The lost by a FG to Minny. Hung tough with the Saints. Covered vs the Falcons. Their 2 bad road losses. At Tampa, 2 INTs by Glennon, also 2 fumbles. At GB v Rodgers 2 INTs by Glennon, 2 more fumbles. A much improved product with the rookie behind center. And the defense is a solid bunch. 4* Money Maker CHICAGO BEARS |