Taking MICHIGAN here. I said on my podcast Wednesday night that this line is a bit odd looking. Guest Capper Tony K agreed. Why do we have Northwestern, the higher ranked team getting a TD here? They shut down Stanford, who went on the road and dropped 40 on USC. Northwestern went to Duke, who is a capable football team, and won there. They are off a shut-out. And we get this big number. Now Michigan hasn't been a powerful football school in quiet a bit. Both teams bring solid defenses. Northwestern giving up 7ppg, Wolverines allowing 184 yards total offense a game. Total sitting at an old school 35. Yet, the line is a TD. Something has to give here. I mean, isn't it easy to grab a good defense like the Wildcats getting the points. They played a bit of a tougher schedule. I think this line might drop a bit by game time. Again, I know the purpose of a line is to get 2 way action. But all I see is Northwestern money all day long here. So I think the Wolverines get a 10pt win here. 5* Best Bet MICHIGAN WOLVERINES 

Taking HOUSTON here. I though the Cowboys would pick off the Falcons last week. And it looked good for a half. Fact is, Atlanta took advantage of a Philly team that hasn't looked particularly good. They had to come from behind with help from the Giants. They needed a huge game from a RB averaging 2 YPR to beat a team without Romo or Dez Bryant. Texans haven't looked that terrible. Their QB situation looks stabilized with Mallet who seems to have found a nice target in WR DeAndre Hopkins. 5* Best Bet HOUSTON TEXANS 

Taking KANSAS CITY here. How many times are these MFers going to bury us? I guess I am insane since the definition of insanity is doing something over and over again expecting different results. That being said, YES, I am nuts! Look, this KC team shoots itself in the foot no doubt about it. But they have plenty of talent. People knock Alex Smith, but the guy wins games. Basically, I see this line and think, are you kidding me! Why is this line so low? You know from my podcast this year, and last year, that I am high on Cincy. I thought they were knocking Denver out 2 years ago to face Seattle in the Super Bowl. I know they are a very good team. But this does not pass my 'eye' test. Line is way too low. Off a short week, and another loss for KC. Cincy red-hot doing everything right. Yet, 4, 4.5? Not buying it. Bengals off tough game vs Ravens. Dalton hasn't been picked yet. Something tells me Chiefs get some pressure and Andy makes a mistake or two. 8* Sure Shot KC CHIEFS 

Taking SMU here. Last week we cashed an easy 10* winner on ECU over Va Tech. A perfect spot for them, and they delivered. Now the Pirates are on the road after that huge win. And laying points? Good luck with that. A super spot for SMU. Off a loss to James Madison. This SMU team can air it out. And I have little faith in ECU secondary. James Madison put up 700 yards of offense last week! I think we see improvement there. SMU can score. ECU might be playing the old rotating QB game. Another (our 3rd CFB) dog-out right winner here with our Top play. 10* Money Bomb SMU

Taking IOWA here .Quite frankly, not sold on this Wiscy team. Melvin Gordon isn't running the rock here. We have a pair of backs splitting time doing an ok, not super job. Iowa has one of the better rush defenses in the land. Badger QB doesn't scare me while our QB is quietly leading a team putting up nearly 38ppg. Points too good to pass up here. Another live dog for us. 10* Money Bomb IOWA 

Taking the BILLS here. So, Rexy's big bad D gets absolutely shredded by Brady last week. Is that really a surprise? We cashed with Pats on the road, as we cashed with the Bills over Luck in Week 1. So, a week of reading their own press clippings and they are eating crow. So we have a team that got scorched at home vs a team that just lost a team that, quite frankly, if it weren't for the Raiders have been the worse team in football. We have a couple buts though, big ones!! First, Pats have owned Buffalo. now 22-2 SU last 24 meetings! This defense will be fired up. Tannehill is not Luck or Brady. And fired up is not in the Dolphins vocabulary. This is a chronic under-achieving bunch at home as evident by their 8-15 SU record. This team has scored 3 TDs in 2 weeks vs a pair of teams, who, are not suppose to be very good this year. Do we even have to get into Suh actin' the fool and going rogue with the DC play calls? 3 games into a huge contract this guy is going off the reservation already. Wow. Gladly fade the home team who barely rates as a home favorite. 10* Money Bomb BUFFALO BILLS 

Taking the RAMS here. We are 2-0 with STL, fade last week, win over Seattle. Look. Rams took a half to get ready last week. Makes sense, most teams after facing the Seahawks are bruised and battered and not ready to go on Sunday. But they will be ready here. What is up with this line? Steelers dropped nearly 50 last week running 2pt conversions. Rams lose to a 'lowly' Washington team that nobody thought would be any good with Cousins behind center. The old, what have you done for me lately, and eye test from the week before. Steelers get Bell back here. But I don't think we will see a lot of the RB. They have a big division game up next vs the Ravens. Are they 100% focused especially coming off a rout? STL at home, big crowd behind them. We'll bite here. 8* Sure Shot STL RAMS 

Taking the COLTS here. Yeah. It is looking like a total Joe Public play here. But how can we not back Luck here. Off 2 bad games. The guy is MUCH better than that. And he is facing the Titans. Luck is 7-1 SU-ATS on the road in the South. Why is everyone so high on Mariota? Yes, they surprised Tampa Bay. They just lost to the Browns. The Browns. How do people feel about those teams? Now they are going to out play the Colts. I will be the first to say this OL looks shaky. But, like my Giants winner on Thursday night. This is a the old 'circle the wagons' game for Indy. A big MUST win. I look for an adjust big time here by the Colts. Luck, and even Frank Gore with his fumble, played poorly. They get right here. Indy 7-0 ATS last 7 in the series. No let down concerns off the short week, instead we are in desperate win mode. And being that Luck is 12-0 SU vs his division, we will lay the short number here. 5* Best Bet INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 

Taking ARIZONA here. Wildcats might get a big boost with the heart of their defense, Scooby Wright suiting up here. UCLA played down last week with this game on deck. Perfectly understandable. Arizona a tidy 11-3 ATS as PAC 12 home dogs. Sprinkle in some Triple-Revenge and we have a recipe for success in my eyes. Can't over state the loss of UCLA LB Jack. He was the 3rd starter lost on that side of the ball. A big loss for them there. Arizona 5-1 ATS last 6 here at home. 8* Sure Shot ARIZONA WILDCATS 

Going OVER the total here. Man. You drop 80+ on a team, you better be ready when you travel to their field. I have no doubt Heisman hopeful QB Boykin will put up 5 TDs today. Tech is going to score their 40. To be honest, I can't believe this total isn't close to 100. The TCU defense is showing some dents in the armor. I see this as a back and forth game. Won't be shocked if Tech pulls out a win here. 5* Total Money OVER TCU/TT

Taking EAST CAROLINA here. So last week we faded this crew and rode Navy to a Top 10* win. We will flip the script here. One, ECU played Florida tough on the road. (I lost with the Gators) Then off that emotionally draining game, the face the Navy option which is not easy to prepare for. And, they know they had this game on deck! VT has the revenge angle. But laying double digits on the road? Eh, I'll take the Pirates with that. They are 16-3 SU at home last 19 games. ECU is 5-2 ATS last 7 vs Va Tech. Tech 2-9 ATS last 11 on the road. 10* Money Bomb EAST CAROLINA 

Taking BAYLOR here. A large number for sure. But right off the bat we have to fade Rice here. We get them in their 3rd straight road game, and it is a non-conference game for them to boot. They have a more meaningful, and for all intention purposes, a more winnable game in their eyes next. My worse case here is that after cruising to a 37-10 lead by half-time, Baylor eases up and wins something like 63-30. We do have Baylor with rest so they might really run it up early to get some game reps. 5* Best Bet BAYLOR 

Taking the PACKERS here. It what is probably going to be a game that everyone and their grandparents are on, we will take GB in payback mode. Look. I had Seattle in the NFC Championship Game. I had no right winning that. Packers were in control of that game. Now they get a weaker Seattle team in Lambeau. Up 16-0 and clearly outplaying the Seahawks, Packers had months to sit and stew over that. Seattle has some issues. First a loss at STL. We cashed Rams as our Free Play. The big thing after the Super Bowl was how can you not use Beast Mode? Well he couldn't get a yard last week. Maybe Seattle can't pick up a yard in any situation. I know this. They lost last week on the road. They lost last September in San Diego on the road. They eked out a couple close wins at Carolina and Washington. They are a different team away from home.   Now they come face a team as dominate as they are on their own turf? 8* Sure Shot GREEN BAY PACKERS

Taking the COWBOYS here. We didn't get the cover last Sunday night with Dallas, but salvaged some of that rare Sunday loss fading the Eagles Monday night. So, no Dez. I get it. He is a big target and abuses this Philly secondary. The 'Boys have won by an average of over 13ppg the last 3 times these guys have played. I get Murray is going to want to have a huge game vs his old teammates. Maybe he will. Say he goes 100+ and a pair of TDs. I can live with that. Since I know Romo is good for 3-4 TDs. I am looking at Escobar to really step up here. People forget that he was a 2nd round pick. He has 7 TDs on 20 catches. With Dez down, I think everyone steps up a spot and this kid makes a difference. Let's be honest here. The Cowboys OL is better than the Falcons on any field, home, away, London, the moon. You don't think the Dallas RBs want to make a statement here? Getting points to boot? Sign me up. Neither defense excites me, but I think the Cowboys have the better unit. Should be points a plenty. Might sprinkle a little ML here, +175, 180 just for giggles. 5* Best Bet DALLAS COWBOYS 

Taking the REDSKINS here. Ok, we cashed with STL as our Free Play last week, while we rode the Dolphins to victory fading these 'Skins. But a look at the numbers shows us that Washington wasn't all that terrible. A punt return for a TD was the difference maker. Morris went for over 100 on the ground vs a tough Miami defense. Which I think is as good as this STL group. Now, Rams off big win over Seattle. Maybe a bit of a let-down spot? Maybe road-dome-team outside? I know Cousins doesn't inspire much hope for a Super Bowl win, but I think this team is good enough to beat St Louis who might be a bit ego inflated coming off an emotional win. 5* Best Bet WASHINGTON REDSKINS 

Taking the STEELERS here. I won with SF on MNF and lost a big play with the Steelers/Pats Over on opening night. Look. Right off the bat I have to look at the rest here. Steelers with a lot of extra time to work on things. This is like a first game all over for them. Niners a big home win on Monday night, short week, heading to the East for a time change early game. I said that I thought that everyone was sleeping on SF Monday night. It showed. But here, I will grab Big Ben all day long. Beating a second year QB like Bridgewater at home and beating a Super Bowl winner on the road are two different worlds. Pitt 12-2 SU in home openers. I see them winning this by at least 10. 10* Money Bomb PITTSBURGH STEELERS 

5* Best Bet PENN STATE

Taking NAVY here. Ok. I faded ECU last week, it didn't work out. That being said, they are going to have a difficult time here in Annapolis. They haven't done well facing the Midshipmen option over the past few years. Navy is a tough team to prep for. I think we also have a bit of a let down here for ECU after their near upset last week at Florida, plus having Virginia Tech on deck. Navy didn't play last week so they are chomping at the bit here. I think the Navy run game is going to barrel right through this ECU defense. 10* Money Bomb NAVY 

Going OVER the total here. I think that the Navy rush option is going to destroy ECU here. I know ECU doesn't have the offense of years past. But I think they will give up 20+ here. That is perfect because I believe the Midshipmen are putting up a 40+ spot on the board. 5* Total Money OVER Navy/TCU

Taking the COWBOYS here. Look. I am a Jersey guy. I am in the Giants backyard. I have all the ins and outs of the NFC East. I am also a Dallas fan. That being said. There is a reason this line is where it is. Dallas is the better team. Forget about how will they replace Murray. It won't matter here. The Giants secondary is leaky. They could never stop Witten. Dez is one of the best. They have slot WRs and the best OL in the league. And for all the knocking on Romo, the guy is pretty good QB. Now, Eli has Odell. That kid is good, no doubt. But I think the Cowboys defense is better than the Giants. They can make a stop or two if needed. Dallas has swept the last 2 years and I don't see anything changing here opening night. 10* Money Bomb DALLAS COWBOYS

Taking TAMPA BAY here. I can't hide it. I like TB! Last year they cost us, but I think a year under HC Smith has helped this team. He will be taking over the defense and I think will have something special for the rookie on the other side of the field. Yes, we have a rookie behind center as well. But I think we have a bit more going in our skill position players than the Titans. Now playing on or against rookie NFL QBs probably isn't a recipe for betting success, but sometimes opportunity arises. Mariota never played in a system like this. At least Winston played pro-style in college. That takes time to grasp. Now, on the road. Come on. WR Mike Evans, and veteran Vincent Jackson both topped 1000 yards last year. That sure helps out a rookie at home. RB Martin looked like his rookie self this pre-season which also bolsters the young QB. 10* Money Bomb TAMPA BAY BUCS

Taking CINCINNATI here. Last year I thought that Cincy would break through and get into the AFC Championship Game. I still think this team has Super Bowl talent. They win during the regular season. They take care of who they have to beat during the year. And believe me, the Raiders are one of those team. I know there is a lot of love that Oakland will be improved. And they should be. They were brutal last year! Bengals have above average offenses and defenses. And I think that Raiders under Del Rio will improve overall, I don't think even with a new OC that the offense can pull out an upset here. 5* Best Bet CINCINNATI BENGALS 

Taking the JETS here. I have to say. Everyone think the Jets are getting picked off here and the Browns are a trendy pick. But I'm not buying it. I look at this Jets team like an old Parcells team he had. A journeyman QB (Testaverde) comes in with some angry WR (Keyshawn) and they make some noise. Now, I am not saying Bowles is the Tuna, and Marshall is Keyshawn, but, it is similar. FitzMagic is a decent QB. He is not elite, but he isn't the bottom of the barrel. He has a good RB in Ivory. Veteran duo of WR in Decker and Marshall. A very good defense to help him out. He isn't looking over his shoulder. I think this Jets team will surprise many this season. Now the Brown have a nice looking D. They have a good OL with Thomas and Mack. But their WR corp does not impress me. Their QB, Josh McCown, the guy who went 1-10 SU for Tampa last year, does not impress me. Is RB Crowell going to motor for 150 yards today? Doubt it. They are lackluster for sure. Jets need this win as they have Indy, Miami and Philly up next. New HC will want to get a win, especially since this is a team they are clearly better than. 8* Sure Shot NY JETS

Taking MIAMI here. Ok. I think the Dolphins are 10 points better. I do. They have their cornerstone QB locked up with a huge contract. The Skins benched their QB who they traded away their future for. I really don't want to knock Cousins, but he isn't very good. Washington has a couple guys around him to help, but I think this team is splintered. Bottom-line for me. Miami is the much better team. The offense has some nice weapons. The defense is going to be very good. They will be in backfield all day here on Sunday causing problems. If Miami doesn't win this by a TD I would be shocked. 5* Best Bet MIAMI DOLPHINS 

Taking MISSISSIPPI STATE here. Am I missing something here? Sometimes when things look too good be to be true, they are. But I can't not back the Bulldogs here. We cashed last week with Southern Miss over this same group. I thought the way MSU buried them last year, will add some extra edge to those home dogs, who covered the number for us. Now we get a powerful SEC team in a home dog role. A place they are 18-3 SU since 2012. They didn't play a cup-cake last week. They had to focus on an in-state rival who was gunning for them big-time. It wasn't a sexy win, the stats weren't overwhelming. But State did what it had to do. LSU on the other hand had their cream-puff game postponed due to weather. Now, LSU, like MSU probably spent time looking ahead to this game. It is a revenger for the Tigers. But LSU does have Auburn on deck. I think the real game-play helps us out here. Won't be shocked for an out-right win, but will be happy with the cover. 10* Money Bomb MISSISSIPPI STATE 

5* Best Bet CAL BEARS

Taking UTAH STATE here. Aggies really laid an egg last week barely getting by Southern Utah. But let's be honest. Their focus was on this game. PAC 12 Utah is off a nice win over MIchigan. Not really a shock. Michigan is down. But none the less Utes not that impressive on offense and need the TO edge to pull out the win. State QB Keeton is a pretty good signal caller. I think the ugly game last week helps them since Utah won't have much film to go on. Plenty of surprises possibly on tap for the Aggies to unleash. Or at least some new looks from their new OC. Just feel this is too many points here. 5* Best Bet UTAH STATE

Going OVER the total here. Do we really think that Tom Brady won't be looking to run it up here? What happened in the 2nd half of that Colts game after they took his ball? How did he do in the 2nd half of that Super Bowl against the Legion of Boom? This Steelers offense will be able to put up points. Their defense could be one of the worse in football. Brady is putting up a 40 spot here in his sleep. The over is 8-2 last 10 in the series. 10* Total Money OVER Steelers/Patriots 

Taking OHIO STATE here. What is there to say in this spot? Hokies came into the Horseshoe last year and won! Now it's time for pay back. I will say it is tough to lay 2 TDs on the road, but the defending champions are talented on both sides of the ball. I will be honest and tell you I really wanted to take Va Tech here. But I can't. VT hasn't been a top team in years. Urban Meyer's team is 38-3 since he took over in Columbus. This is a huge game obviously for both team. OSU has Hawaii, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan and the Indiana coming up before they get a 'decent' team again in  Maryland. This is a test simply because of the cupcakes on deck. Buckeyes are on a the cusp of a dynasty run here. 5* Best Bet OHIO STATE

Taking BYU here. I must be missing something here. Didn't Nebraska just bring in a new HC. A HC who likes to install pro-set offenses? Isn't Nebraska generally, a power run team? Can you really trust a new regime with an old regime players when you are coming in changing the entire offense scheme? BYU is a solid bunch. I just can't back a new HC laying a TD here, even at Nebraska. Especially against a solid team with a HC who is just as experienced in games like this. 8* Sure Shot BYU