Taking APPALACHIAN STATE here. First. Let's just say that the average fan is going to be all in on the Canes. And they should be. I mean, tough to knock a team ranked and with a new HC that is looking to turn the program back to a powerhouse that is was. But let's not sleep on Appy State here. I said on my first podcast of the year to take the points and they can hang with the Vols. They did. This is a veteran team that went 11-2 LY and has a bunch of starters back. Home dogs on ESPN vs a team like Miami? I will sprinkle ML +150 on the home dogs. 5* Best Bet APPALACHIAN STATE 

Taking the REDSKINS here. Absolutely no respect here. Washington won the NFC East last year. You can say the were a joke, but that's on you. Cousins isn't sexy like Big Ben, but he fits Gruden's system. Their WRs as a group are top flight. None stand alone like Bryant, but this offense will put up points. The defense is solid. And let's talk about the Steelers. They are missing some pieces here in Week 1on offense. Coming on the road and laying points is not an easy task. Opening night on MNF. Skins are looking to prove the doubters wrong. And make no mistake, Pitt has a huge game up next week vs Cincy. That is one physical rivalry that gets more chippy by the quarter. 10* Money Bomb WASHINGTON REDSKINS 

Taking the BUCCANEERS here. As I said in my Thursday podcast, after Carolina, you can really shuffle the deck behind them. I like Tampa's talent. That isn't to say that Matt Ryan and Julio Jones are chopped liver. I just like the way the Bucs improved their secondary in the off-season. Atlanta is 1-11 ATS last 12 as chalk. We can say, hey, double revenge spot for Atlanta. But they barely were home field -3 fave before the smart money grabbed the number. Bucs new HC was their OC last year and Winston will look to improve off a solid rookie season. As an added knowledge bonus, we have ex Falcons OC as our HC and their old HC, Mike Smith, as our DC. I think we can get a little edge with our defense here. 8* Sure Shot TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 

Taking the BEARS here. Had Tony George on my podcast Thursday. He told the listeners he had the Texans as his Super Contest selection and gave Houston as a Free Play on the show. I was like wow. The guy hit like 65% last year in the contest, have to respect his opinion. But as I watch this number drop a bit, I see 4.5 in some spots, I had to dig a little. I am not as high on Houston as others. I really haven't seen enough of Brock Osweiler to think he is getting this team 10,11 wins. The defense will be playing with a limited JJ Watt. I think that John Fox is a pretty good HC. Pretty sure he knows a little about Brock since he drafted him in Denver! 5* Best Bet CHICAGO BEARS

Taking SAN DIEGO STATE here. Have had this game circled since early August. I don't think Cal was going to be very good. I had Hawaii and the 21 when it first opened in Australia. I always like Rocky Long and he's doing a good job here in Mountain West action. First round pick Goff and the Bears blitzed the Aztecs on the road last year 35-7, and I think SDST gets some payback. Aztecs can control the clock and keep the Cal offense off the field. They also have a senior led defense that can keep points off the board. 8* Sure Shot SAN DIEGO STATE 

Give me WASHINGTON STATE here. 10.5/ 11 pts! Are you kidding me? Since 2012, Mike Leach is on a 12-3 ATS road dog run. That includes outright wins over Oregon, USC, Arizona, Cal and Utah. Boise is 99-6 since 2000 on the Blue Turf. But they did drop their last 2 at home last year. The defense isn't strong enough to contain the 'Air Raid' pass attack that the Cougars bring. QB Luke Faulk has 38TD 8INTs last year so he should be able to move the ball vs the Boise. Should be a shoot-out with a total over 70 and I will grab the double digits and smile all the way to the window. 10* Money Bomb WASHINGTON STATE 

Taking TCU here. I have said numerous times over the last couple years on my podcast what kind of lines get my attention, and why I bet them. Well, we have the ole 7.5 here. When I see this, I know that the fave is covering by double digits at half and wins going away. You have heard me say it a million times before. Oh, so and so is favored is favored by 6.5? There is no way the don't beat fill in blank by a touchdown. Same as oh, so and so is getting 7.5. Love that extra half point. When I see the half on 3 and 7, I am on the favorite 9 times out of 10. TCU is the better club. Yes, their defense wasn't good last week. But I think that was more of just playing down and going through the motions. Arkansas on the other had all types of trouble generating offense. Not shocking since they only have a few starters back. But this isn't your typical SEC power run team. TCU 14-3 ATS last 17 at home, one loss as 46pt faves! This is much better number to cover. Horned Frogs 7-3 ATS last 10 non-conference games while the Razorbacks log a 1-4 ATS during the same. Look for an improved defensive effort from TCU, and the offense to put up 40 here. 8* Sure Shot TCU HORNED FROGS 

Taking ALABAMA here. I know there guys are breaking in another new QB. But come on people, Tide just reload. They are always at the top of recruiting classes. For me, this is me thinking that Lane Kiffin is going to pull out all the stops to humiliate the Trojans. Getting canned on an airport runway. You think this guy is over that? Alabama is not the team to be breaking in a new QB against either. 5* Best Bet ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE 

Taking TEXAS A&M here. And how can we not? Unranked team giving points to the 'better' team, the 'ranked' team. I see games like this, in week 1 no-less, and just shake my head. I like UCLA. I think they can challenge for the PAC 12 title. But I am not backing a team with an offense that returns just 5 starters. Bruins with a pretty good defense and a bit of an edge there. But the Aggies counter that with their new OC who just happened to hold that spot at UCLA the last 4 years. During the year, maybe that wouldn't really translate well. But in Game 1. With an August of prep. He knows the strength and weakness of this team. That tilts the ball into our corner. 10* Money Bomb TEXAS A&M 

Taking WESTERN MICHIGAN here. So a big, bad Big 10 team is favored by a little nickel over the MAC? Weren't the Wildcats 10-3 last year? Beat Stanford. But, the numbers show me that Northwestern isn't strong as home faves. 6-13 ATS last 20, 13-24 L37 ATS including 0-7 ATS vs MAC teams. The Broncos have a returning QB, a pair of good RBs who each have 1000 yard seasons under the belt, and a solid WR corp. PJ Fleck has done a great job here as WMU is 11-4 ATS last 15 as away dogs under his watch. I have Western Michigan winning the MAC and I think they come out on fire here to grab a little respect knocking off a power conference team. 5* Best Bet WESTERN MICHIGAN 

Taking HAWAII here. Will grab the 20+ and sprinkle some +900 ML in also. I think this sets up nicely for us. A long flight for both teams. New HC for the Rainbows but 15 returning starters who needed a jolt of new life in them. They face a rebuilding Cal team that lost their QB Goff to the NFL and their top 6 WRs. 4 starters back on offense, 5 on defense. Laying 20 on a different contintent! I have the Bears pegged for the basement of the PAC 12. 5* Best Bet HAWAII RAINBOWS 

Going OVER the total in Super Bowl 50. I know we have some good defenses at play here. But This is the final game of the year. Do we really think that either team will sit on a lead? Who wants to be the HC being asked, Coach, you were up 24-6, why did you try to run out the clock the entire 2nd half. Losing 33-30 on a last second FG has to kill you. Point is. There will be no milking or grinding out clock. Panthers have a power run game. They put points on the board. Their OL is better than NE. They can keep the rush off Cam. And if needed, Cam can run. Manning is old. I had NE last week. They couldn't make the plays to win. But Manning still can play. He isn't a dummy back there. He has some WR weapons at his disposal. We will see points. The winning team will be scoring in the 30s tonight. 10* Total Money MONEY BOMB  - OVER 

Taking the PANTHERS here. Going to try to keep this short. I know this is it for Manning. And he and he and the Broncos were run right out of the Meadowlands in their last Super Bowl. For me, Carolina has the OL to hold up against the Broncos pass rush. Cam has the legs to get away from their pass rush. I will tell you this. I don't know how they do it. Last 2 years I thought the Panthers would struggle offensively. All they do is win. Their defense is a bend, don't break unit. I don't care they give up leads. They are in the proverbial 'prevent' you from covering defense. Broncos 2-5 in Super Bowls. Panthers 0-1. Their HC won one as a player with the Bears back in 85. And lost as their DC to Manning and the Colts in 2006. At this point in his career, Manning is not better than Cam. Even with the better WRs. Somehow, someway, Carolina continues to roll up points. Arizona and Seattle don't have bottom feeder defenses. This OL is better NE and Denver won't be getting to Cam like they did Brady. I really don't like how this line keeps climbing and climbing though. I think Carolina wins it in the 37-27 range. 5* Best Bet CAROLINA PANTHERS 

Taking CAROLINA here. Panthers have now won 21 of 23 games! 15-1 in the regular season. I do recall the Patriots laying 20 something at home to Eagles during their 16-0 run. Many times double digits. The disrespect continues for Carolina. -3 at home? Didn't they beat this team last when they were 7-9? Granted, Carson Palmer is an upgrade of Ryan Lindley. But the fact is that Palmer has 1 playoff win in 13 years! He nearly gave it away last week with some passes that should have been picked off. And what about this Arizona defense? 4th and 20 from your own 20 and give up a bomb? A hail mary to tie it over your best DB? I'll repeat this. 15-1 regular season. 21-2 last 23. 0 respect for a very good defense. I don't want to dwell on them giving up a quick 14 points after being up 31-0. You are up 31-0 you are bleeding the clock to hurry up a win. Fact is, they beat Seattle soundly both times this year. 5* Best Bet CAROLINA PANTHERS 

Taking the PATRIOTS here. Uh. I will be the first to admit, not a fan of laying a FG on the road. I am writing this on Sunday night. I really wasn't impressed with Denver, and I cashed with them -6.5. Manning at QB, with exception of a pass or two, can't get it down field without some wind at his back. WRs dropping throws. The Broncos defense looked OK. I know they only gave up 16 points. But to a banged up Big Ben without the leagues best WR and nary a run game to be found. I had Denver way back in November beating NE in OT. So I have no doubt that Brady and friends will be looking for revenge. I also know that I had Denver beating the Pats in the Championship here in 2014. It basically comes down to this for me. 1.. The coaches. I will grab the NE sideline nearly all the time in this match-up. 2... Revenge from earlier this year, and to a lesser degree, the previous Championship game.  3... Brady. Clearly right now, head and shoulders above Manning. -- Pats seem to be getting healthy, as I stated in my last write up about them.  - We know Patriots won't be running much. For me. This is Brady, with more options then their loss up here, at this disposal. Brady has had Manning numbers when they were both on the top of their games. One of the two has clearly lost a couple steps. 10* Money Bomb NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 

Taking the PANTHERS here. Oh my goodness. When oh when will this team get any respect. I thought Minny would knock off Seattle last week. And they probably should have. Coulda Woulda Shoulda. Enter Seattle. Again. Not impressed with this team. It was crazy, bitter cold last week. I had the Under as a Free Video Pick. Will most likely be a bit warmer here. Again. As I said last week about Seattle. Who were they beating when Wilson was having video game numbers. Yes, they rolled a Vikes team on the road with a depleted defense. Facing them again. Not so easy. Maybe Lynch plays. Maybe he doesn't. I think he suits up for sure. I don't think it will matter. This Carolina defense, with rest. Forget about it. Cam is unbelievable. I have knocked him for years. But all the guy does is win. And win with less around him. He does have a pretty good TE in Olsen though. And TEs have been problems for the Seahawks. As much as we hear about the Seattle defense, and the Legion of Doom, sign me up for the Panthers here. 5* Best Bet CAROLINA PANTHERS 

Taking ARIZONA here. Had the Cardinals when they won 38-8 and will lay it again here. I had the Redskins last week. Not exactly how I envisioned things. Surely didn't envision the Packers OL getting away with so much against the DL that is for sure. But let's be perfectly clear here. This league is about QBs. And Rodgers was better than Cousins. And Rodgers was facing a defense that is nowhere near what he faces here in the desert. We know how he does out here. We saw a couple weeks ago. What has changed? They beat the Redskins? I am taking the rested home team here. A team that flat-out destroyed this group recently. The Arizona defense is a menace to all QBs. The GB defense is not up to the task here. 8* Sure Shot ARIZONA CARDINALS 

Taking the PATRIOTS here. Part of me doesn't like this line, but my thinking is simple. There is no way I am laying against Tom Brady losing 3 straight. Especially off a bye week. It isn't as if we have to cover double digits. We don't even need to cover a TD.  If Edelman plays for NE, it is a plus. Even not being 100% still opens things up as he has to be respected if hobbled. Again, I think this is about Brady hitting Gronk. In Miami, we saw a steady diet of run plays by the Pats. Obviously working in new RB Steven Jackson. Belichick worked him 7 times vs the Jets, and 14 against Miami. I am sure he will see 20 here against the KC. He isn't the 1000 yard pounder from his Rams days, but he is someone who is fresh, albeit at a ripe old age of 32 in mid January. Alex Smith is a nice QB for KC. He does however have 4 INTs in his last 3 games. He has some help in a very good TE in Kelce. But it does look like WR Maclin will not be full throttle with a high ankle sprain. I know KC is red hot. By some freak mistake, I thought the Texans defense who stymie these guys. I should know better then back a team led by an ex-Browns QB. You get a big fat shut-out and TOs galore when you do that. I think this line represents that win, plus the overall win streak of KC. I said in my write up last week that the Chiefs were beating bad teams. I thought Houston was not bad. My mistake. This is a big step up facing Brady on the road. I clearly remember cashing KC destroying NE 41-14 on MNF last year. And clearly remember NE going 13-2 and winning a Super Bowl. So, we have a bit of revenge from that game which is an added bonus. 10* Money Bomb NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 

Taking ALABAMA here. The Nick-tator arrives back for a shot at another NC. And, I think he gets it done tonight. If you listen to my podcast, I am going to be repeating myself here. Clemson has the disrespect card, and will be showing it at the door. #1 team getting nearly a TD. On the heels of getting points from the Sooners. I get they are angry with something to prove. But looking at this team, I don't think they have enough to get it done. Look at this ACC and who they beat? Are you impressed? I'm not. I get you can only play who is in front of you. I understand completely. I say that all the time. But, when you struggle in some games, and see those teams losing, well, I think you are in for a rude awaking here. Alabama gets the benefit of extra practices. I don't know the HC, but I am pretty damn sure that he loves extra prep time for a Title Game. They saw how it helped Ohio State last year. Well, it is there turn now. I know that Bama has historically had trouble with the running, duel-threat QB. But I have seen them shut done runners this year. Maybe it is the play-calling. Maybe it is faster, smarter players. Whatever the case may be. The Clemson edge that everyone thinks they have, is muted at best. Bama going for Championship 4 in 7 years. Tigers, might be arriving here a year ahead of schedule. Tide playing much different since their lone loss. Coker is a solid QB. He has a beast RB in Henry. I said in taking them last week that OC Kiffen will open things up. I am betting he does it again. Roll Tide. 5* Best Bet ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE 

Taking the REDSKINS here. The Packers actually opened at +3 according to early reports on my twitter feed. I wasn't going to bite at that number, I waited for it to come down a bit. I won't be shocked if this gets to PK or +1 for Washington. Fact is. Everyone is going to say Aaron Rodgers vs Kirk Cousins? Give me a break, oh and points to boot. Let's not get ahead of ourselves. Has anyone watched this up and down GB team the last few weeks? Obviously this isn't a vintage Packers team. They lost to every division team at home. With a chance to wrap up a home game, they lose at home. Now, people say, oh, they did this on purpose. Are you kidding me? You take home playoff games. Because, I will tell you this. Fed Ex field is going to be electric. What a pumped group of guys here for the Redskins. The joke of the NFC East. The team that pretty much every 'expert' thought would be in last place, rebuilding. Well lookie here. The Redskins are actually playing better than GB coming into today. They are also the better rested club. Any time off is a good thing, and GB was playing a full 60 in Sunday nights loss. Few people  realize that this Redskins team is pretty solid. But we are the few who do $ 8* Sure Shot WASHINGTON REDSKINS 

Taking the VIKINGS here. I see this line, and I immediately think we should be on Seattle. I mean really. Laying this on the road? I get they came here a month ago and wallop Minny. But the Vikings are still NFC North Champs. They still have the best RB in the league. Who, rushed for 18 yards on 8 carries in that game. The defense, well, I think the Vikings have the better defense here. Zim is a great defensive coach and I think he is ready here in the rematch. Can't discount the Minny 13-3 ATS run either especially catching points. Vikings with only 2 losses of more than 3 points last 15 games. This is all about redeeming themselves, at home, and getting a nice number. Game should be a lot closer than the last one. 5* Best Bet MINNESOTA VIKINGS 

Taking the BENGALS here. Pretty simple here for me. I think Cincy in the better team. I thought these guys have Super Bowl talent the last 2 years. What would this line be if the Red Rocket was playing? It would be at least a 6 point swing. Fact is, as great as Big Ben to Brown is, that is all Pittsburgh is right now. The run game is in shambles. Bengals with a pretty diverse attack. If they let AJ off the reigns a little bit, I think this really turns into an easy win for Cincy here. They have a couple of guys in Atkins and Dunlap who really get after the QB. I know Big Ben is big, but he isn't mobile. These 2 have split so far this year, but the AFC North belongs to the Bengals as they win here going away. 5* Best Bet CINCINNATI BENGALS 

Taking the TEXANS here. What a great match-up here. A pair of ultra hot teams. KC, winners of 10 straight after starting out 1-5. That lone win, opening day vs these same Texans. Who, started out 2-5 and won 7 of their last 9 to win the South. A lot has changed since September. The least being both teams playing well. I like KC, I do. But man. The Texans are getting to play the old disrespect card here at home. 10 in a row is great. But was their a playoff team in there over the coarse of the last month or so? We need to head back to them coming out of their bye week to face Denver to see a team still playing or with a winning record. And even with 5 INTs (4 of Manning) they didn't put many points on the board (5 FGs). In fact, Alex Smith threw for 204 yards, 80 coming on TD pass. They also barely eclipsed 100 yards rushing. Point being here, the Texans defense is playing some monster defense. Much like the Broncos were doing most of the season. And that is the big difference maker here especially with a force like JJ roaming on that side of the ball. I am not sure if you line up 10 casual NFL fans in a room if 8 of them know who the Texans HC is. But Bill O'Brian has done a great job with 4 QBs this season! I had to hit Wikipedia to show me that the last Chiefs Play-Off was 1994 with Joe Montana and Marcus Allen beating the Warren Moon led Houston Oilers. I do have a vivid memory of them blowing a 38-10 lead to the Colts and losing 45-44. That is some Andy Reid football right there. Being a favorite is different. And this being a home dog in NFL playoff action, well count me in. 10* Money Bomb HOUSTON TEXANS 

Taking the VIKINGS here. A little payback from their home loss beat down at the hands of GB. This is tough though. We have Minny off a big win that everyone saw on Sunday night destroying the Giants. And we have GB in off a humiliating loss at Arizona. Winner takes the NFC North and gets a home playoff game. Easy to think Rodgers at home is the play. But the OL didn't look good last week. Minny HC Zimmer is a defensive guy, and will probably have something special in store here after being ambushed at home by the Pack. AP is again the best RB in the land leading the league in rushing. Bridgewater is playing mistake free ball. We'll grab the points and won't be shocked if we get an outright win tonight. 10* Money Bomb MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Taking the GIANTS here. Look. Chip is fired. The Eagles players probably relieved. Never took to the guy. But I think the motivation is for the Giants HC. The old man deserves better, especially the way the G-Men played last Sunday night. If he does hang it up, or let go, I expect a nice send off in his final home game. On the other side of the field. Well, remember when people though Chip was a racist for releasing guys? Maybe he was just a terrible NFL coach. At least the Titans can go get him now! As for the Eagles players, maybe they play good and say see, it was the coach. That is a BIG maybe. For the Giants, you know his players love him and will run through walls for him. 8* Sure Shot

Taking the FALCONS here. Well. It comes to this. Way back in August I did a quick video with Doug Upstone at the Westgate saying how I loved the Falcons as my Best Bet team to go over their win total. Well. We are half a game away. After a quick start, ATL faltered. But they can end their season with a tidy 3 game win streak and 9 wins. Enter the Saints and a horrible secondary. That plays right into our stretch with Ryan and Jones. We did cash these guys over the undefeated Panthers as a Top 10. And a let might could be in order. But I don't think their new HC is going to have them flat here. For NO, Brees is a bit banged up. Who knows how long he plays. There are also rumors about their HC. Saints going through the motions. While a first year HC is looking to build something. 5* Best Bet ATLANTA FALCONS 

NO PLAY --

BOYKIN OUT 

Taking MISSISSIPPI here. Going for the 10* Mississippi SWEEP here as we cashed State the other night. Ole Miss was run out of the building last year by TCU 42-3 and will be looking to get back on track as they had won and covered 6 straight bowls before that debacle. Now they can take out some Big 12 revenge on the Cowboys of Oklahoma State. Cowboys looked like they were the real deal at 10-0 before dropping a pair to Baylor and Oklahoma. Talent wise, Ole Miss is as good or better than nearly every one in the country which can attest to their win over Alabama. But they do pull some lack luster games. Losses at Memphis and Florida and a crazy loss at home to Arkansas. I think Hugh Freeze has the Rebs primed here. I think that loss LY will motivate here and a 10 win season is important. 10* Money Bomb OLE MISS

Taking IOWA here. Will gladly take the points with this rugged bunch. Under the radar all year. Only loss to MSU in Big 10 Championship Game. A game they probably should have won. These guys really haven't gotten any respect this year. And it continues here. Iowa forces TOs (+12), they have a steady QB in Beathard. Stanford though, they have feel a bit slighted here. Yes, they are in the Rose Bowl for the 3rd time in 4 years, which was PAC 12 royalty before the BCS and Playoffs began. But that could be a let-down for them. Iowa here for the first time in 25 years. Will grab the points here. 8* Sure Shot IOWA HAWKEYES 

Taking OHIO STATE here. I know that after dropping the Big 10 Championship OSU looked like a lost cause with guys talking about going pro, and getting touches and other prima donna antics. But I have faith in Urban Meyer. The guy gets results 9-2 in bowls including 7 wins by double digits. Now we have to win by just a TD. ND is a great story. I wrote them off after the first wave of their injuries. But with 2 heart breaking losses as their only blemishes, this team needs to be respected. We know the OSU staff won't let these guys over look anyone, especially a team like the Irish. ND took it to LSU last year in a bowl game. And even though OSU isn't in the Bowl Playoff, but the Fiesta is a nice landing spot. I can't see the OSU stars not showing up in their college finale's. The questions about being limited in their final 2 games, losses even, will get in their heads and more importantly their wallets. I look for a crisp offensive day and the OSU defense to keep ND in check. 5* Best Bet OHIO STATE 

Taking ALABAMA here. Saban has lost his last 2 bowl games. I think that losing streak ends tonight. Look. I like Sparty. I am a Sparty backer often. But not in this spot. Really. MSU should have lost to Michigan. Beat OSU in terrible weather. Pulled a miracle over Iowa. Luck of the Irish? I know you need some good luck along with good play, but how many rabbits are in this hat? I think Bama stuffs this rush attack and makes Cook beat them. Which, when you have NFL players littered across the defense is a tough task. Tide will ground and pound, but I won't be surprised one bit when Kiffen takes some big shots down field. 8* Sure Shot ALABAMA 

Taking OKLAHOMA here. Right off the bat you have to lean Sooners as they are laying to the #1 team in the land. Plus. I will be honest here. I was somehow hoping we would see OKLA as a dog or pick. I really didn't think odds-makers loved these guys like this. But it just adds to my thinking that Stoops does better when he starts under the radar. And this.. Did anyone catch the NC/Baylor game Tuesday night. I was watching some of that and that basically cements this selection. I put out NC as a Free Pick on my daily video. I said, I will follow the money here. Baylor down to basically 3rd stringers in key skill positions. With the way things went down in the ACC Championship, my thinking is, hey, we can win 12 games. That is something worth accomplishing. Well. Here I sit in the 3rd Q and NC battled back after being down 28-10 to get to 28-24. I get the 'disrespected' angle for Clemson. Oklahoma lost to these guys 40-6 last year! Both teams can say that doesn't matter. I mean, the QBs starting here didn't play last year. But there are guys on both sides of the ball. And I know one coach remembers taking a beating like that for sure. People mock the Big 12. But Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma. These guys can play with anyone. Final though. As I always say on my weekly podcast. 3.5 and 7.5.. Sign me up for the fave. Same as a 2.5 or 6.5 dog. How many times do we here the square at the water cooler saying, no way so and so doesn't win by a touchdown. Same thing here. Oh, I'm getting three AND a Half.. 5* Best Bet OKLAHOMA SOONERS 

Taking MISSISSIPPI STATE here. Final game for Dak Prescott. I have liked this kid, and made a tidy profit backing him the last couple years. LY in bowl action we actually cashed Georgia Tech over these Bulldogs in what I thought would be a let-down game. But here in Charlotte, Belk Bowl action, we are all in MSU. I said on my podcast last week, this NC State is a joke. Yes, they 7 win team. But their first wins were against Troy, Old Dom, South Alabama and Eastern Kentucky. Not exactly a juggernaut of football teams. Heck, not even remotely challenging teams. Then to beat BC and Wake, both 3-9 overall, one with 1 win, the other with 0 in ACC play. How about win 7 over 4-8 Syracuse who was 2-6 in conference play? Maybe this line is too good to be true. Bulldogs lost by 2 to LSU. No shame in that. Lost on the road to A&M, when A&M was ranked in the Top 15 and a perfect 5-0. Losing to Alabama. Then to Ole Miss where they were down 21-0 in a 5 minute span thanks to a fumble and INT. I know NC State is basically the 'home' team here but they lost by a TD or more to every bowl team they faced this year. Secondary coach Tony Hughes for MSU in his final game before taking his first HC job in 30 years of coaching. A little added plus for the defense to shine for their coach. 10* Money Bomb MISSISSIPPI STATE 

Taking the RAMS here. Going ugly with St Louis for sure. But I have to think that Seattle will be content with a 7-10 pt win here. Winning by 2 touchdowns every week is hard. Yes, they have revenge from the week 1 loss. But this is a different team on both sides of the ball. Gurley the best back on the field with Lynch out. No Graham at TE for Seattle. Baldwin has been putting up good numbers. But with a play-off spot clinched, and a sexier, Arizona team on deck, I will grab the points here. 8* Sure Shot STL RAMS 

Taking the FALCONS here. Panthers still undefeated and chasing history. This is how I see this. Falcons blown out by Carolina 38-0 just 2 weeks ago. They manage to hang on for a road win last week. Now Panthers in off a last second win over NYG. We all know how they played out. Huge lead. A WWF/ MMA fight breaks out between a WR and CB. I have a feeling about 3 things here. 1. If this game is close, we get a cover regardless. Falcons take an early lead, and Panthers rest some guys. Panthers get an early lead, get conservative, and Atlanta gets in through the back-door. 10* Money Bomb ATLANTA FALCONS 

Taking TAMPA BAY here. Will lay it with an unlikely fave. We have extra rest which is always helpful. We have a slumping team coming in to play. A team that our HC use to helm and lost at last year. I am sure they will play extra hard here for their coach. Bears won't be able to slow RB Martin. Winston has taken nice steps. Cutler will likely do something great and something equally stupid. I always say on my podcast. When I see 3.5 and 7.5 they are begging you to grab the dog. And 2.5 and 6.5 they have you saying, no way so and so doesn't win by TD or field goal. 5* Best Bet TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 

Taking BOWLING GREEN here. Just think the offense will be too much to handle here. Nothing more to say.. Falcons will get their 40+. I don't see Georgia Southern getting to within 10. 5* Best Bet BOWLING GREEN 

Taking the STEELERS here. Part of me was pulling to take Denver here. Off a pour offensive game. Losing to the Raiders, their bitter rival, at home no less? Brock is looking like a game manager lately. And honestly, Ronnie Hillman and CJ Anderson don't inspire confidence needed to keep Big Ben and his prolific offense off the field. Steelers seem to score at will. Can never count this guys out. Pitt needs to win out for a play-off spot. I think they handle this Denver defense at home and put up a 10pt win for us. 5* Best Bet PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Taking the CHARGERS here. Lost with the Dolphins on Monday night. But the silver lining of that loser is that with Miami officially out of the playoffs, this cross country flight is looking like a great spot to pound San Diego. Phillip Rivers is a total gamer. He will never quit no matter the score or the record. This Miami team. Not sure they have half the heart. Chargers have been in some tough games. The law of averages says they are basically due for an easy win. What better spot to back them than with an uninterested team traveling 3000 miles on a short week? 10* Money Bomb SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Taking the COLTS here. We cashed big last week with the Jags as our Top 10* and off that pasting, we like Indy here. I have bashed the Colts all season long. But I like the coach. He gets this team ready and they win. 16-1 SU and 13-3-1 ATS last 17 in the division. And they gave up 51 to the Jaguars. On the heels of losing 45-10 to the Steelers. Look. Getting bashed by Pitt is one thing. Getting lit up by the young Jaguars. Let's be honest. Maybe they were looking past that game or just going through the motions. They know this division game is much more important. 5* Best Bet COLTS

Taking the BEARS here. Yes, I have lost this outfit the last 2 weeks. And it does hurt to come back to them a 3rd time. But. If we take out the 0-3 start to the season where Green Bay (8), Arizona (25) and Seattle (26) beat them soundly, these guys haven't lost by more than 6 points the rest of the way. I know Minny has the extra rest, and Bears in off their own last second misery. But this is a bit of a hefty price to pay. Bears HC Fox has a veteran QB who seems to flourish when not the favorite.  8* Sure Shot CHICAGO BEARS

Taking GEORGIA STATE here. First ever time bowling for the Panthers. Look. Panthers are 6-6. San Jose 5-7. Spartans have to travel over 4000 miles to play a game in front of 800 people. Where is the motivation? Georgia State a perfect 7-0 ATS down the stretch and have 4 in a row all by double digits. 8* Sure Shot GEORGIA STATE 

Taking APPALACHIAN STATE here. First ever FBS bowl for the Mountaineers. They sold out their tickets in less than 2 days. 9.5, 10.. Not really a fan of Appy. But at 7, 7.5, much better value. I think this is a 10pt win for us. Ohio has been bowling 6 of the last 7 years. Are they really pumped about this bowl game? The lowest payout of any bowl game. Appy has something to prove building their name since coming up to the FBS. 5* Best Bet APPALACHIAN STATE 

Taking NEW MEXICO here. Grabbing the points with the home dog here. Lobos play here in University Stadium. They are clearly the more excited bunch to be playing today. They will have some fans for sure to back them in their first bowl game under HC Bob Davies. Off of 4-3-4 win seasons, New Mexico pulled 3 big upsets. Beating Utah State as 20pt dogs and Boise as 31 point dogs in back to back weeks before upending Air Force as 11 point pups to finish 7-5. Where is the motivation for Arizona? They come limping in dropping 3 of 4 at 6-6. To play New Mexico. I am sure Rich Rod is excited with his 2-7 ATS bowl record. 10* Money Bomb NEW MEXICO LOBOS

Going OVER the total here. I am looking for some offense tonight in St Louis. Both teams have good RBs in Martin and Gurley. Bucs rookie Winston has some WRs at his disposal. I know Keenum and the Rams offense isn't a sexy bunch, but I see points on the board tonight. Both defenses are not bad and with the spotty QB play, we will be seeing a lot of the ground and pound. That being said, I think what gets us the into the mid 40s tonight is the defenses forcing turn-overs. Short week, one team dealt a tough loss that hurts their playoff chances, the other snapping a losing streak keeping their wild card hopes alive. I look for trick plays, TOs that lead to TDs, and an easy cover by the 3rd quarter. 8* Total Money OVER Bucs/Rams

Taking the JAGUARS here. Will grab Bortles and friends here. I see -115 to -125 on the ML. Lay it or the a point, point in a half. I think Jags win this one by 10. Colts were just abused by the Steelers on the road last week. Now another road game vs a young, hungry bunch. Still no Luck. Hasselbeck showing his age. Charlie Whitehurst on call. Jax has some nice young pieces. I know the Colts have won 16 in a row vs division foes. But this team, missing Luck, with a 'bigger' foe in Houston up next. I'm going with the hungry homies here. 10* Money Bomb JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Taking the BEARS here. Lost with these guys last week. In fact, lost with both teams. Skins let me down at home on MNF. So we have Washington on a short week, off a tough loss. While Chicago was abused all week by coaches after losing in OT to the terrible Niners. I like the Redskins at home. The road is a different beast. Bears can put up some points with their offense. Cousins on the road is not nearly effective as he is at home. 8* Sure Shot CHICAGO BEARS 

Taking the JETS here. Just think we have a better team here. Not trusting a rookie QB on the road, even getting a TD. New York will get pressure on Mariota. Jets HC Bowles has some experience facing QBs like this as Kap and Wilson were both faced twice year while he was with Arizona. I am sure he will have someone keeping tabs on the rook so he doesn't take off and burn him with 15 yard runs on 3rd and 8. Even off a big win over their state rivals, I can't see a let-down. Especially with a wild card in sight. 5* Best Bet NEW YORK JETS

Taking the BEARS here. Will lay the TD here at home with Chicago. These guys aren't playing bad football folks. Fox has them in the hunt for wild-card just a game back. Look. Bears offense hasn't looked great the last 2 weeks scoring 15 at home against a tough Denver defense, and 17 in a win at Green Bay. I am not feeling a let-down here as we have the extra rest of a Thursday night game. And let's be honest. Cutler, Forte, Jeffery is a heck of a lot better than whatever Niners QB Blaine Gabbert has at his disposal. 49ers 0-5 on the road this season having allowed 43,47,30,27 and 29 points. A much more winnable road game up next for them traveling to Cleveland. Bears by at least 10 here. 10* Money Bomb CHICAGO BEARS 

Taking the FALCONS here. Maybe I am a bit biased here. As I did a video with Doug Upton during the Super Contest Seminar back in August, I said these Falcons were my best bet to surpass their win total. After a fast start, I am still waiting here in December. That being said, Atlanta has dropped 4 in row, while TB has won 3 of 5. Looks like a pair of teams heading in different directions. But the Falcons should be with RB Freeman who is an automatic help to Matt Ryan in the backfield. Looking for some revenge here. 5* Best Bet ATLANTA FALCONS 

Taking MICHIGAN STATE here. I get it. Nobody respects undefeated Iowa. I know, they win. And I will take solid over sexy all day long if it covers for me. But overall, I just don't like this Iowa team. Forget that they beat only 4 teams with winning records. I always say, you can only play who is in on the schedule. They took a good punch from Nebraska. They were totally outplayed, and still one. Same Nebraska team that pinned Sparty with their only loss. But this in a real experienced Michigan State team. 3rd time in 5 years in Big 10 Championship Game. And as their coach said. They are peaking at the right the time. The offense is clicking. The OL looks great, and Connor Cook looks pretty healthy behind it. 10* Money Bomb MICHIGAN STATE 

Taking BOWLING GREEN here. Yes, Northern Illinois is in MAC Championship for the 6th straight year. Last year, they pasted BG 51-17. That was with BG being led by a back-up QB. A little role reversal here. That is why we are laying double digits. NIU down to their #4 QB on the depth chart. Falcons score at will. NIU gracefully fell into this game when Western Michigan got upset. Yes, they are going to be pumped. But this is payback time for the Falcons. Won't be surprised to see the same score as last year, just with different names above the numbers. 5* Best Bet BOWLING GREEN 

Taking the SAINTS here. New Orleans off their bye week. Well, if you had the Redskins like I did 2 weeks ago, you would have thought NO had back to back bye weeks. So they can Rob Ryan as the defense was what I think the worse in all of the NFL. Look. I had NYJ last week. Houston, short week, off a big win on MNF, with a TJ Yates? Looked like the Jets were off a short week instead of extra rest. But what we have seen was a Texans defense put together a nice season, and a pair of wins that peek the public's attention. I'm not buying Yates or Hoyer here for the Texans. Most time when teams make in-season changes, they get a balls to the wall performance right out of the gate that normally generates a big win. Getting points, it just adds value with Dennis Allen taking over the New Orleans D. 5* Best Bet NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 

Taking KANSAS CITY here. What a deflated spot for the Bills here. Off a Monday loss at New England. Come on. You know damn well that Rex Ryan put in tons of extra effort and the players wanted that win. Everyone gets up for the Pats. So Buffalo is playing their 3rd straight road game. A pair of prime time divisional battles. Now they travel to Arrowhead? Good luck with that. 10* Money Bomb KANSAS CITY CHIEFS  --- this line is down to 4 now with injury.. You do not have to play as a 10* - It isn't he QB who is the most valuable player on the field. 

Taking the BENGALS here. Cashed with these guys Sunday night. But Cincy now has dropped a pair and that undefeated start is now 8-2 with the 6-4 Steelers climbing the standings. Enter the Rams. I will fade dome teams in November/December often. The Rams offense does not impress in the least. Add in a QB problem as Foles will be back. He was benched for ineptness. Gurley hasn't looked good because the OL is beset by injuries. The STL defense is alright, but not ready to slow down the Bengals. Cincinnati comes in off b2b national tv losses. They should be able to easily make this a 14-20 win. 8* Sure Shot CINCINNATI BENGALS 

Taking TEMPLE here. So we have Connecticut in off a win. Not just any win. A win that saw the fans storm the field. A win where they got bowl eligible with a 6th win. And finally, a win that knocked Houston from the ranks of the undefeated. Now they hit Philly against a tough Temple defense. The Owls are looking to lock up an AAC East Title. Temple looked sharped knocking off Memphis last week. No let-down for a team looking to lock up a conference title. 8* Sure Shot TEMPLE OWLS 

Taking ALABAMA here. This was a free for all offensive explosion last year, 55-44. Tide looking to wrap up the SEC West. I don't think they will have a problem here. Yes, Auburn will put a up fight in the Iron Bowl. But let's be honest here. This team hasn't played well all year. This offense hasn't gotten its act together. They limped past Jacksonville State. Ok, road game vs LSU on deck, which they got smacked 45-21. Lose at home Miss State 17-9. They needed 4 TOs at home to get by San Jose State. 30-27 win at Kentucky. A FG as time expired to force OT vs Arkansas, they lose. Lose at home to Ole Miss. Beat a bad Aggies team. Lose to Georgia, beat Idaho.  Now they face arguably the best team in the land. Yes, they will be motivated. But that will only get you so far. Alabama will eventually pull away to a 20pt win. 5* Best Bet 

Taking OLD DOMINION here. I will be the first to say this. When I see a 2 win laying points on the road to a 5 win team, it raises eyebrow. FAU has revenge from last year. Ok. But does that make them 4 points better? On the road? Off what was their biggest game of the year, a 20-14 OT loss at Florida? How are they getting up for this game? OD's HC says this is the biggest game in the programs history. Win, and the get the schools first ever bowl bid. I'm grabbing the home pup here. 5* Best Bet OLD DOMINION 

Taking NAVY here. The ol' bubble burst for Houston. Undefeated season gone with a tragic loss at UConn. So now, utterly deflated, with their QB banged up, in comes the Midshipmen. Good luck getting prepared for this offense. Navy could very well secure a New Years Bowl spot winning out here. Navy QB Reynolds will get a Heisman look. Navy doesn't turn it over, and controls the clock running the ball. That takes away the powerful offense of the Cougs, and limits a defense that has no trouble causing INTs for opposing quarterbacks. 10* Money Bomb NAVY 

Taking the COWBOYS here. Dallas opened as a small fave. I still see them -1 or pk at some spots. I am sure the Panthers money will pour down, even against a public team like the 'Boys. A pair of undefeated QBs meet up today. 10-0 Cam, 3-0 Romo. Tough to wonder might what have been for Dallas if they had a full season of Tony behind center. Fact is though. This team changes dramatically with him on the field. Saw that last week on the road. Normally the Cowboys are laying premium numbers at home and have terrible ATS to prove it. But this line is right on point. If Romo and Dez were here all year and Dallas is 9-1 or whatever, we might be laying a FG or more. Panthers win ugly for sure. We cashed them as our 10* last week. I think the Dallas OL matches well against Carolina D. Dallas will control the lock as they have before. You can't stack 8,9 in the box against Romo. I see this as a 26-23, 30-24 type of affair, which Dallas keeps their slim play-off hopes alive. 8* Sure Shot DALLAS COWBOYS 

Taking the VIKINGS here. I am sitting on a nice Minny win total and NFC North future ticket so maybe I am biased here. But everything that I have seen of this team is exactly what I expected back in August. Love their HC Zimmer as he is a tidy 16-3 ATS last 19 games. He has this defense fluid right now. Teddy Bridgewater doing a great job with MVP AP running the ball like he is on a mission. I have lost with GB the last couple weeks. Tony George was on my podcast the other night and we are both shaking our heads at this GB defense. Or lack of I should say. No run game. The Lions all but gift wrapped a game last week and the Pack couldn't close. Vikes flat out know. We win this one here, we bury GB here, and Lambeau in December won't matter. 5* Best Bet MINNESOTA VIKINGS 

Taking the PANTHERS here. This team isn't sexy but they continue to win. I faded them last week in what I thought would be a let-down spot. There is no let down in this team. They hit the road for 2 after this game, so they want to get all the wins they can to get this home field. I also had the Redskins last week. Never in doubt. But that was at home, vs a Saints team that is absolutely terrible on defense. A little step-up in class to say the least. I absolutely own this Washington team. 5-1 when I play one of their games. These guys are win-less on the road. Loss by 11 at NYG, 14 at NYJ, 17 at NE, and a TD pass in OT in Atlanta. I don't think they have faced a defense like this. Carolina tied for the league lead in INTs. Cousins with 7 of his 9 picks on the road. 10* Money Bomb CAROLINA PANTHERS 

Taking the BEARS here. Man, was this group was left for dead or what. But this is the NFL. Any given Sunday right? Well, we cashed huge with the Chiefs last week over this Denver team. Manning, clearly at the end of the line. Not sure what Brock will bring. Maybe he brings some downfield passing. That would be new for Denver. But this play is about how well the Bears are playing. How about we have HC John Fox facing the team that canned him? You don't think his new guys want to stick it to Denver here for the coach? 5* Best Bet CHICAGO BEARS 

Taking the JETS here. Love this spot. The ol' what have you done for me lately. Last time we checked. We were cashing in with Bills last Thursday night with Rex getting back at his old club. Then we rolled out a youtube free pick on the Texans getting double digits who went out and pulled the outright win. The public loves the last thing they see. And they saw the Texans knock off the undefeated Bengals while New York was bumbling along in a home loss. FitzMagic and the Jets have extra rest, and Fitzy might know a thing or two about this Texans defense since he was their QB. TJ Yates making his 6th career start on a short week. If NYJ has any thought that they should be making a wild-card run, then this is one of those circle the wagons, all hands on deck type of games. I'm in. 8* Sure Shot NEW YORK JETS 

Taking WISCONSIN here. Man. 10 points. Seems pretty high considering these two are smack dab next to each other in the polls. And both of them bring pretty highly rated defenses to the game. So in a case like this, I have to act on my gut and do what I do best. Think completely opposite of the public. Northwestern comes in with 3 straight wins, but after 2 straight at home, enters Madison knowing that the Badgers want some revenge for last years 20-14 defeat. We have Wisconsin, in revenge mode, with a week of extra rest and prep time. Final home game for the seniors. Forget it. Wiscy should cruise 34-13. 10* Money Bomb WISCONSIN BADGERS 

Taking PENN STATE here. Will grab the home pups off the bye. Michigan in off a double OT road win in their first back to back roadies of the year. Tough place to play here in Happy Valley. Penn State has won 3 straight at home vs the Wolverines but will be looking for payback for last years 18-13 road loss. And let's look at Michigan on the road. We talked about last weeks nail-biter. How about that close call at Minny? Plus, as an added bonus the Wolverines have Ohio State on deck! I hear the talk of Michigan wins, OSU beats Mich State, and next week winner takes all for Big 10 Title. Well, this is the perfect 'trap' spot to clear up any doubts of who is representing the East side of things. Nittany Lions rested, with revenge get it done outright here. 5* Best Bet PENN STATE 

Taking the CHIEFS here. We get KC with a pair of nice wins under their belts, plus off their bye week in a big revenger. Had these guys when they blew leads all night long in that epic collapse. 2 TDs in 36 seconds! Are you kidding me? Manning is looking less than mortal. 9 TDs and 13 INTs on the year, Alex Smith with 9TDs and 3INTs. I know Denver defense is the real deal. But the offense is sluggish. I will take points with Andy Reid off a bye week 100% of the time as he is 17-3 SU with rest. 8* Sure Shot KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 

Taking the PACKERS here. I have lost with these the last 2 weeks. From 7-0 to 7-2. Make no mistake, Aaron Rodgers is going to have a field day vs the Lions defense here. After being humiliated on Sunday night, they go face the Panthers and again get abused before a late rally ends on a rare Rodgers INT. GB has won 24 straight vs the Lions at home. Detroit is off a bye week where they made some changes. But the coach is still there, so I don't see the 'rally 'round the new guy' happening here. Detroit has a lame duck coach coaching a defense allowing 30ppg and 37 last 4. A perfect remedy after 2 of the toughest defenses in the league. GB 17-2 ATS off b2b roadies.  Packers with division leader Minnesota on deck, but after 2 straight losses, there is no look-ahead spot allowed. 10* Money Bomb GREEN BAY PACKERS 

Taking TENNESSEE here. Are you kidding me with this line? I see anywhere from 4.5 up to 6 in some spots. When things look to good to be true, they probably are. Undefeated and coming off a huge win over GB, of which, they had to hold on after a big win. Just like they had to do on Monday night, maybe the Panthers hitting the road are in a flat-spot. Those 2 wins on the heels of beating Philly and a win at Seattle. Now a clear step-down in class vs a Titans team that is 2-16 SU last 18 games. 5* Best Bet TENNESSEE TITANS 

Taking SOUTH FLORIDA here. Cashed a miracle win with Temple as a Free Play Friday night. Are you kidding me? 45-40 then a 3rd down long TD, a 2pt conversion and a INT for 7 for a 20pt win. SMU backers had to have sharp objects and shoe laces removed from their homes. That being said, I see a let-down here. First off. They have Memphis on deck. A much bigger name for Temple to focus on. Second. Bulls have some talent and are vastly better defensively than the Mustangs. Third road game in 4 weeks for the Owls which again, takes some pop out of your step. 8* Sure Shot SOUTH FLORIDA 

Taking SOUTHERN MISS here. These guys are quietly 7-2 ATS for us on the year. They have a done a great job improving both sides off the ball statistically from last year. We are nice rested off our bye week. The Rice defense was blitzed by Western Kentucky 49-10 and La Tech 42-17. This Eagles team is just as good or better. Owls can't force TOs, just 2 INTs on the year, while allowing 26 TD passes. Rice was a 8.5 road fave last year and dispatched Southern Miss 41-23. A little revenge served this afternoon. 10* Money Bomb SOUTHERN MISS 

5* Best Bet NORTH CAROLINA

Taking the EAGLES here. We had the 'Boys in Philly, but this is clearly a different team. I did cash with Dallas last week with the points, but this offense is clearly struggling. It is common knowledge that after facing Seattle, teams have problem covering. That is compounded by the fact the Eagles are off a bye-week and have revenge from an earlier loss, where Philly looked helpless. 8* Sure Shot PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 

Taking the BRONCOS here. All about defense here. Yes, Indy canned their OC and looked super in the 4th quarter vs the Panthers. I'm not buying. Do we not remember these guys were down 21-0 to the Saints here before they mustered any offense. This team has major problems. Luck is barely a .500 quarterback vs anyone but the putrid AFC South. Now he gets the best defense with a QB who owned this town coming to play. I am not a fan of laying many points with road faves. Especially a team off a near perfect win last week. But I think Luck is banged up. And this Denver D will be on him. I have lost money backing Indy. I have lost money fading Indy. Probably the one team that has hurt me the most this year. That being said, I think the Broncos are the real deal and with this defense should muster a 10pt win for us. 5* BEST BET  Denver Broncos

Taking the STEELERS here. We faded both of these teams last week with mixed results (Cincy or Top 10*). Now, we have the Raiders traveling east for an early game. Always difficult. The talk is about how good Oakland is. Well, as I said. I had the Jets. And they were moving pretty good with Fitzy in their before he got hurt on that first drive. If he doesn't go down, who knows what happens. That being said, slowing down Geno is a bit different than Big Ben. He has a game under his belt. He has a pair of WRs that will cause problems. The run game is solid even with Bell out. Pitt will be angry after letting one slip away last week. Prefect storm brewing here. 10* Money-Bomb PITTSBURGH STEELERS 

Taking LSU here. Ugh. I have to tell ya. Part of me wants to grab 'Bama. Saban is a great coach. Both teams in off byes. Both teams probably the best top to bottom squads in the country. Two things lean me towards the LSU here. 1. I like their QB. The kid makes plays and I think has better weapons. And 2, what I think is the most important here. Their DC was on Alabama's staff last year. I am sure he might have some piece of insight that will help. Revenge from last years battle. 5* Best Bet LSU

Taking MICHIGAN STATE here. Looks a little too easy, but I'll bite. Sparty just wins and Nebraska, well they are finding new ways to lose. It started with hail-mary losses and has moved to losing to Purdue allowing 55 points! Purdue who is now 2-18 SU vs Big 10 teams under their HC. I thought Riley would have problems and he clearly has here in year 1. Spartans have won 21 of their last 22 B10 games, 17 by double digits. Michigan State +10 in TOs, Nebraska -8. Sparty took care of business after their epic game vs Michigan, no let-down. Now with a week off , they have plenty of prep time to pick apart this terrible Cornhusker defense. 8* Sure Shot MICHIGAN STATE 

Taking MID TEN ST here. Sometimes I look at a line and just say, no way. MDTNST at 3-5 favored, bet up no less to -3 vs 8-1 Marshall. The Herd, who is 21-2 SU last 23. The Herd, who is a conference road dog for the 3rd time, in 4 Years! So yes, I am very interested in the Blue Raiders here. We have extra rest, while Marshall is playing their 10th straight game. 10* Money Bomb MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE 

Taking MISSISSIPPI STATE here. I really think this line should be higher. Maybe it is the sucker play of the day. Well, call me a sucker. I know State has Alabama up next. But we aren't laying a huge number here. MizzU can play some defense giving up less than 13ppg, but the Bulldogs have put up 45,45 and 42 their last 3 games. Both teams off last week. Missouri has had trouble scoring all year so I don't think they magically turn into some offensive machine. Again, with 'Bama looming we can't really shoot the moon in this spot, but I think we still have enough value to play. 5* Best Bet MISSISSIPPI STATE 

Going UNDER the total here. I just can't see a ton of points being scored here. Short week. Johnny Football could be starting. McCown banged up. I look for a little revenge here with Cincy. They lost to the Browns here nearly a year to the day 24-3. Coming off a tough game vs the Steelers, I think Cincy has trouble starting here. Browns defense choked away a 20-7 lead last week. They will tighten things up. Both games went under last year. I think we get another game that nears 40. 5* Total Money UNDER Browns/Bengals 

Taking the PACKERS here. Both teams off their bye-weeks. Broncos bring the better defense for sure. But I can't bet against Rodgers here. He is clearly head and shoulders better than Manning right now. I know he is rested. He has some weapons to throw to for sure. But where is the run game to get the pressure off the old man? There isn't any. Packers have the superior offensive personnel and a system that puts points on the board at times with ease. Packers 10-2 SU off bye under McCarthy and 10-1 ATS last 11 with rest. For Denver to win, I would need to see them stopping Rodgers all night. I have no scenario where that happens enough to not get us a cover. 5* Best Bet GREEN BAY PACKERS 

Taking the BENGALS here. It would be easy to say hey, Steelers have Big Ben back, they are home, they knock off the undefeated Bengals. But is it that simple? Cincy off their bye-week. Big Ben, if he plays, might be a bit rusty to start. Will he remain healthy behind an OL missing it's 2 best line-men? I know they have some weapons back. But Andy Dalton has a few pretty good weapons himself. Bernard and Hill are a nice duo in the backfield. And Green, Jones, Sanu and Eifert can hang with any WR/TE group I've seen. Plus, a defense that has already sacked opposing QBs 17 times in 6 games. And we have triple revenge working in our favor. 10* Money Bomb CINCINNATI BENGALS 

Taking the BEARS here. I like this Minny team. I said in my NFL Preview podcast that these guys have a solid defense, and a great HC, and if the offense came together, they could be special. Well, they got their first division road win last week since 2012 and now are in back to back divisional roadies against a Bears team off a bye. Minny has lost 7 straight to the Bears and are 1-6 ATS last 7 in Chicago. Bears have a solid defense under the new regime. Minny is ranked 30th in total offense. 5* Best Bet CHICAGO BEARS

Taking NC STATE here. Tough spot for Clemson. They rolled last week beating the Hurricanes 58-0. They have Florida State on deck. How focused, or really, how much are they really prepping here? They won't be throwing any new wrinkles out for sure with the Seminoles on deck. Nice home dog role for State. They are 4-1 ATS last 5 vs Tigers. 10* Money Bomb NC STATE

5* Best Bet SAN DIEGO STATE

8* Sure Shot TEXAS TECH

5* Best Bet MISSISSIPPI

Gentleman. Sorry not any write ups the last few days. 

If you listened to my podcast this week, you know that I have been battling a bad flu bug or something the last couple weeks. Writing and staring at the screen just gives me a pounding head ache that knocks me out.

I do have NFL write ups. 

Let's keep up our nice run that has us at the top of the long-term leader-boards - Sean

Taking the RAMS here. Love this spot for STL. Love, love, love it. Rested. At home. Against the Browns, who, in cased you missed just lost a heart-breaker at home in OT to the Broncos. That on the heels of, winning a nail-biter on the road in OT against the Ravens. While recovering from a stinging 3pt loss on the road in San Diego on a FG as time expired. That is a bruising, 3 games stretch for most franchises. But this is the Browns. Let's give them a ton of credit for battling after each of those games. I can't see much in the tank here against the Rams. A rested bunch to boot. Now, the Rams as faves are in uncharted waters. In fact, when the Browns were favored over the Raiders we promptly cashed with visiting Oakland. But this is a totally different spot for both teams. The Rams defense didn't do terrible against better offenses. The get after the QB with 19 sacks, 2nd most in NFC, while Cleveland has been sacked the 2nd most (22) in the AFC. Plus, Gurley seems to have injected life in the offense which, granted hasn't put many points on the board. I just can't get past this situation though. Rams off their bye. Browns off another, close, physical game. Lay it. 10* Money Bomb STL RAMS 

Taking TAMPA here. Who are the Redskins to be laying points to anyone? They were just manhandled on the road. They have key injuries up and down their roster. Tampa in off their bye week. I know Washington has a couple nice games under their belts and you are thinking, this is Tampa, lay it. Well Cousins has more INTs than Winston. I actually like TB WRs Evans and Jackson. I thought the veteran and young wide-out, plus a solid rush attack with Martin would actually help Winston out in his rookie year. Hopefully, my continued faith in Lovie Smith will eventually get us some money! 5* Best Bet TB BUCCANEERS

Taking the COLTS here. I had NE -7.5 last week before the line steamed to 10. Now at 10, Indy might have been worth a look. Fact is, they lost by 7. What I saw was an improved Luck. I also cashed with the Saints on Thursday as an easy home dog winner over Atlanta. Now, I love my extra rest, especially in NFL. That being said, these aren't the same old Saints, and this is on the road. Indy has taken care of business at home. I expect it to continue. Truth be told, they don't run the most bizarre trick play in my memory, and maybe we are taking Saints since Colts in a let-down spot after upsetting the Patriots. But that didn't happen. So we are left with Luck and his oldies, Gore and Johnson, and some youngens, Moncrief and Hilton to expose a poor New Orleans defense. 8* Sure Shot INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 

5* Best Bet OLE MISS 

10* Money Bomb VANDERBILT

Taking the EAGLES here. Is Shane Vereen going to be the best offensive player on the field Monday night? What about Sproles? Eli is better than Bradford that is not even debatable. But who is he throwing to? Is Odell dancing hammy feeling ok? What about Randles? Whatever happened to Victor Cruz, Mr Chunky Soup a couple years ago, the Salsa King? Maybe Chip Kelly has DeMarco Murray unleashed for 27 carries and a 150 yards. Does Sproles return a punt to the house? Or a couple deep into NYG territory? Eagles have covered 3 of the last 4 in the series. 5* Best Bet PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 

Taking the PATRIOTS here. Last week we cashed NE as our Top 10* and will come right back to them here. Are you kidding me? 7.5.. I would lay 17.5. I said last week, and I will say it again. Brady is out to humiliate teams. Now he gets to tee-off on a leaky Colts defense (out-gained in every game) that may or may not have a less than 100% Luck at QB. Who, wasn't that good vs Bills or Jets when he was 'healthy.' So Brady, Mr Deflategate gets to face the team that started the whole sha-bang! Sign me up. Last time this team was accused, SpyGate, they rolled to a 17-0 regular season. Brady is about restoring his legacy and image. So running it up when he knows that everyone is watching is great medicine for his ego. Not that I like doing this but. Pats 51-17 over Jags.. Colts 16-13... 10* Money Bomb NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 

Taking the DOLPHINS here. Will gladly grab Miami and any points here. They win this one outright. This is one of  my Super Contest selection. Miami was floundering under Philbin and as I predicted, canned him after their London loss. Now with a bye week and a new man in charge, I look for a swift kick in the ass exactly what the doctor ordered for this struggling team. New coach, new attitude. The players will be looking to prove themselves. And they face a rookie QB. They face a HC, in Whisenhunt who is 4-28 SU last 32 games. 4 Wins 28 LOSSES!! Miami is the more talented team. Now we just need them to act like it. Which, I believe they will in resounding fashion here at 1pm. 8* Sure Shot MIAMI DOLPHINS 

Taking MICHIGAN here. We had these guys as a Best Bet last week and they promptly cashed our ticket. So here we are again. The Wolverines giving more than a TD to a team ranked higher than them. LY Michigan State was a 17pt favorite! Sparty is undefeated, but hasn't looked impressive in any game. Have they been saving their best and key breakout moments for this game? Doubt it. Maybe the loss of their DC hurts more than it should. Sparty has won 11 straight Big 10 roadies. They were ranked #2 in pre-season AP poll. They were #4 before dropping to #7, with a win! Harbaugh has this team ready to go. 5* Best Bet MICHIGAN WOLVERINES 

Taking BAYLOR here. 21. I would lay 40 here. I always say that on my Top 10*s, we don't triple our bets, or throw mortgage payments down for extra money. But I do say put an extra unit or 2 down. Baylor in this spot, to me, is as close to a sure thing as possible. Revenge from last year. That game cost them a spot at the Play-Offs. 64ppg, basically 360 yard EACH through the air and on the ground per game! West Va has 9 TOs the last 2 games vs Okie and Okie State. That was after getting fat on bottom feeders Georgia Southern, Liberty, and Maryland. Maybe the last 2 games aren't flukes. They lost some talent from last year. Now you are coming into a hornets nest looking for revenge with 18 straight home wins behind them and the most explosive offense in the game. GL trying to keep Baylor under 40 by the half. 10* Money Bomb BAYLOR BEARS 

Taking the PATRIOTS here. Look. I will be the first to say that laying more than a TD on the road is not a recipe for success in the NFL. But there are times when we must. Patriots off a bye week. Absolutely. Tom Brady looking to humiliate every defense he faces and make the league look silly for 'deflate-gate'. Just another reason to jump on board. No Romo, Dez, or Sean Lee? I might get into 1989 Pro-Line Dr Ron Bash mode and start hyping this play like a used car salesman. Greg Hardy and Rolando McClain are great pieces for the Dallas D to have return. But make no mistake Lee is the heart. But, saying he is injury prone is an understatement. Bottom line here is pretty simple. How is Weeden and the Cowboys slowing down Brady? The simple answer, they aren't. I am not expecting to see 200+ yards of rushing offense from the 'Boys keeping Brady on the sidelines. 10* Money Bomb NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 

Taking the CHIEFS here. I'll be the first to say this is a big number for me to be laying. Especially with a KC team that has let me down week after week. Call me crazy, or insane. But I am back on them here. Losers of 3 straight, but those teams are 12-0! Denver, GB and Cincy. Not exactly chopped liver. Bears have some issues without a doubt. They edged Oakland last week, which, even as a home dog, they should have. Raiders haven't been road faves since when, 2002? Marcus Allen and Kenny Stabler! KC has their back to the walls. Alex Smith doesn't throw many INTs, while Cutler seems to enjoy it. The Bears defense doesn't impress, nor scare offenses. This is a clear step-down in class for KC. And you don't say that much at the NFL level. But Chiefs need to really cut loose on someone. They should have beat Denver. They had no problem moving the ball on the road against a very good Bengals defense. I can see their defense knocking Cutler out and getting at least 2-3 turnovers here. A frustrating 3 week stretch should be taken out with a vengeance against the Bears. A double digit win is mandatory here. I think that KC top 30 and I don't see Chicago getting more than 17-20. 10* Money-Bomb KC CHIEFS 

Taking the BENGALS here. Cincy is ready for this game. If there is one game out of division to be 100% ready for, this is it. The rugged, Seahawks, Super Bowl Champs and Runner-Up the last 2 years come to down. Now. We know I like fading this over-rated bunch, especially on the road. We cashed Rams outright over them, then GB pulled away late. Here they find an Andy Dalton who has been nearly perfect. I read somewhere that him getting booed at the All-Star game really motivated him in camp. He is tired of hearing how he can't do it, and is a game manager, blah, blah blah. Well, with Lynch banged up, he easily has the 2 best backs on the field. And the best WRs. This is a dangerous Bengals team. The bend don't break of giving up FGs last week didn't hurt them. I think Seattle is down a bit. They are not the same team as the last 2 years, especially when playing on the road. Bengals 15-3-1 ATS last 19 at home. 5* Best Bet CINCINNATI BENGALS