5*Oakland Raiders +3

The Titans are playing its second straight road game having won three straight overall. Tennessee has been outgained in two of those three victories. The Titans rank last in sacks allowed and will have to matchup against a solid front seven. The Raiders return home after two blowout losses on the road. Last week, they actually outgained the Chiefs by 73 yards in losing 40-9. Tennessee has scored 108 points in their past three games combined and now must play on the road against a hungry team. Tough. I made this line Oakland -1. Take the home underdog!

5*New Orleans Saints -2.5

The 49ers will be playing its second straight road game after a physical and emotional contest against the Ravens. The Saints have 10 days to prepare coming off a season-low 184 passing yards by Drew Brees. I would expect a huge bounce back effort. San Francisco had their BYE back in week four. The Saints had their BYE in week nine. The Saints are 20-5 SU in their past 25 home games. The 49ers are 1-4 SU and 1-4 ATS in their past five Dome games. I will swallow the 2.5 points with the home team!

5*Indianapolis Colts -2.5

The Colts have 10 days to prepare for this one after playing Houston on Thursday night. Frank Reich is a really good head coach and he should have this team fired up. The Titans' defense was on the field for a season-high 78 plays last week. Tough. The scoreboard shows a blowout win but if you watched that game you know four of the scores were fluky. The Titans are ranked dead last in sacks allowed (43 in 11 games) while the Colts are ranked 11th (21 in 11 games). Tennessee is 6-16 ATS in their past 22 games on field turf. Indianapolis is 40-19 ATS after a straight-up loss of late. Take the hungry host!

5*Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5

I like the switch to Devlin Hodges who is an upgrade at this point of the season. I also like the matchup of the Steelers' front 7 against the Browns' offensive line. Pittsburgh will be pumped-up at home in this ginormous revenge game. The Browns will miss Myles Garrett on defense. Big coaching edge to the Steelers in this same-season rematch. Take the Steelers plus the generous 2.5 points. I would also try a slice on the money line.

10*San Diego State +5.5

This will be first time all season the Cougars play back-to-back road games without a week of rest. They traveled to Umass last week. BYU has already accepted an invitation to play in the Hawaii Bowl. I have to question their motivation. The Aztecs will be motivated as they want 9 wins this season. They are also coming off a tough 3-point setback at Hawaii last week on a game ending miss FG. Rocky Long has SD state playing stifling defense. This unit is ranked 8th in the nation--allowing just 288 yards per game. San Diego State is ranked #2 in defensive line play while BYU is ranked 116th at Football Outsiders. The Aztecs are ranked 23rd in special teams while BYU is ranked 100th. The Cougars have played a very easy schedule and this will be the 2nd best defense BYU has faced. Utah defeated BYU 30-12 in week one (at BYU) who has a similar defense. Carson Baker gets the start at QB for the Aztecs. He's from the area and BYU has no idea what to expect on offense. I'm all over the home underdog in this one. Try a slice on the money line as well (+180).

4*Kansas State +5.5

4*Louisville +3.5

10*Philadelphia Eagles -1.5

The Seahawks have won four in a row and I think the BYE week will stop their momentum. When Seattle's BYE week occurs after week 8, they have not performed well on the road. Seattle has played the 9th easiest schedule to date. They have won four games by 4 points or less and seven of the eight victories have been by 7 points or less. They are rated as one of the worst 8-2 teams in quite some time. The Seahawks like to run and the Eagles are really efficient at stopping the run. The Eagles are ranked 3rd in run defense at Football Outsiders while the Seahawks are ranked 22nd. The Eagles are ranked 6th in total defense at Football Outsiders while Seattle is ranked 21st. Seattle is ranked 24th in opponent yards per play (5.9) while the Eagles are ranked 11th (5.3). Philadelphia is ranked 5th in 3rd down efficiency on offense while only converting 23% against New England. I would expect a much better effort in this spot. Seattle ranks 14th in that stat and much worse on the road. The Eagles are playing their third straight home game after playing three straight road games. Teams off a SU and ATS loss in that third straight home game are cashing close to 70% since 2011. The Seahawks have allowed the 9th most fantasy points against TE's this season so expect Zach Ertz to have a huge game. Philadelphia is coming off a poor effort and they know this is a must win game. You might say it's the Eagles' Super Bowl. Jordan Howard and Alshon Jeffery are expected to return. Even if they don't, I'm all over the Eagles as a very short home favorite!

5*Indiana Hoosiers +10

The Hoosiers have an offense that can score on almost any defense. Indiana has a net yards per play differential of +1.3 while Michigan has a +1.7 mark. Michigan has a bigger game against Ohio State next week. I think the Hoosiers are undervalued in this spot. I have this game closer to 7 points. Take the home dog! 

5*Miami Dolphins +6

These two rivals just played in Week 7. The Bills won 31-21 despite getting outgained 381-305. This will be the second of back-to-back road games for Buffalo. This team doesn't have a signature victory. The combined record of the six teams that Buffalo defeated are 12-44. There are no surprises. Both teams know exactly what each team wants to do. Ryan Fitzpatrick has a QBR of 61.1 (9th) while Josh Allen's QBR is 36 (31st). The Dolphins are playing hard for head coach Brain Flores. The Bills are 4-9 ATS as road chalk of 3.5 to 7 points since 1993. Check this out. NFL teams are 1-7 ATS after playing the Cleveland Browns this season. I really like the home dog in this upset maker!

5*Navy +9.5

Navy enters this game with a +2.0 net yards per play differential while Notre Dame has a +1.4 net yards per play differential. Navy has two weeks to prepare and has revenge from last year's setback. Navy is 3-0 ATS when getting less than 10 points against ND. Navy is 9-3 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points since 1993. Notre Dame is just 3-6 ATS in November the past three years. I think this line should be closer to 7.5 to 8 points. I like the road dog in this one! 

5*Indiana +15.5

Wow, this line is out of whack. The Hoosiers lost 33-28 to Penn State last year as 14-point home underdogs, despite outgaining the Nittany Lions 554-417. Indiana has the offense to score points against anyone. They also have an extra week of rest. Penn State had its dream of making the playoffs crushed with last weak's loss to Minnesota. Tough spot for the home team. Penn State has just an 11% chance of making it to the final four. Penn State has a +2.0 net yards per play differential while Indiana has a +1.3 net yards per play differential. I don't think the gap between these two teams is 15.5 points. The Hoosiers are 5-2 ATS off a win against a conference rival while Penn State is 1-4 ATS off a loss against a conference foe. I'm all over the road dog in this spot!

5*Green Bay Packers -5

The Packers return home off an embarrassing performance at LA Chargers. It was their second straight road game and they looked tired. Green Bay allowed a season-high 159 rushing yards. They will now face a team that likes to run a lot. The Packers run defense should be much better. Carolina won 30-20 at home despite getting outgained by 61 yards against the Titans. The Panthers have now been outgained in four straight games. The big factor will be the cold and windy weather that Kyle Allen must deal with. He has the second smallest hand size (9 3/8) in the NFL, compare to Aaron Rodgers (10 1/8). Kyle Allen has fumble issues because of his small hands. Temps in the low to mid 30s can't be good for a QB and team not accustomed to those conditions. Aaron Rodgers is ranked 11th (57.4) in QBR while Kyle Allen is ranked 23rd (46.1). Green Bay is ranked 8th in overall team efficiency at Football Outsiders while Carolina is ranked 16th. I like the home team, with the better offensive line, quite a bit!

4*Cleveland Browns -2.5

I think the Browns will play one of its better games now that expectations are low. I was never high on them as we gave out Browns under 9 wins on Twitter. Buffalo is 6-2, but the combined record of those six teams are 9-42. I went against the Bills when they hosted Philadelphia and this is a very similar spot. The Bills are ranked 25th in overall team efficiency at Football Outsiders while the Browns are ranked 24th. The odds-makers are begging the public to take Buffalo and they are. As of late Tuesday evening, 83% of the cash with 82% of the tickets on Buffalo. The Browns are ranked 4th in special teams play while the Bills are ranked 24th at Football Outsiders. Buffalo is rated as one of the worst 6-2 teams in NFL history. Take the hungry host!

10*Kentucky Wildcats PK

This will be the Volunteers first game on turf this season while playing its 6th straight game without rest. They are 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS on turf over the past three seasons. Tennessee has dominated Kentucky (32-2 SU) and the Wildcats will be pumped up at home in prime time. Kentucky has extra prep time knowing they are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS on turf of late. Actually, the Wildcats are 19-5 SU on turf over the past three seasons. Mark Stoops is a great coach off a BYE as Kentucky already won & covered with two weeks to prepare earlier this season. Kentucky is 14-5 SU at home over the past three years while Tennessee checks in with a 1-9 SU road record of late. The Vols are 4-16 SU against conference foes of late, and they have a huge revenge game (lost 50-17) against Missouri on deck. Tennessee has a -2.2 net yards per play differential on the road while Kentucky has a +0.6 net yards per play differential at home. Last year, Tennessee dealt Kentucky is third and final loss of the season while benefiting from a +3 turnover margin. Finally, the Vols are 0-3 SU after two or more consecutive victories over the past three years. Love Kentucky in this spot!

5*Carolina Panthers -4

The Carolina Panthers return home from getting embarrassed last week against the 49ers. They allowed 232 rushing yards which is the most in quite some time. Good defensive teams normally bounce back after really bad performances. The Titans will be playing its 9th straight game without rest. Tough. Tennessee is ranked dead last in sacks allowed (34) this season and will be without guard Rodger Saffold, who has graded high in his career. Carolina has recorded the second most sacks (30) this season, which seems like a huge edge for the home team. Only New England has more (31). Last week, Tennessee defeated the Buccaneers 27-23 despite getting outgained 389-264. They benefited from a +3 in turnover margin. The Titans defense was on the field for a season-high 76 plays. Seems like a flat spot for the road team. Carolina has held opposing QB's to a 76.7 passer rating which ranks 4th. The Panthers are ranked 15th in overall team efficiency while Tennessee is ranked 24th at Football Outsiders. Lets swallow the four points and take Carolina!

5*Kansas +6.5

This is a letdown spot for Kansas State coming off its big win against Oklahoma. It was just their fourth victory against a Top 5 team in school history. Kansas State is 1-3 ATS in the very next game. After switching to a new offensive coordinator, the Jayhawks have turned a corner on that side of the ball. Kansas has a +0.3 in net yards per play differential while Kansas State has a -0.9 net yards per play differential this season. Also, the Wildcats have been outgained in five straight games. Finally, Kansas State is ranked 129th in red zone defense. I really like Kansas plus the generous 6.5 points!

5*Carolina Panthers +6

I think this is a great spot for the road team. The Panthers have two weeks to prepare knowing they are 2-0 SU after its BYE week the past two seasons. I like playing on good head coaches with extra time to prepare. They always game plan something new that nobody has seen on tape. The 49ers are 6-0 this season, however the record of those six teams combined are 11-29. San Francisco has injuries on its offensive line. The Panthers have a tremendous front seven that can take advantage. Carolina leads the NFL in sacks with 27 in six games. Take the road dog!

5*Philadelphia Eagles +2.5

The Eagles have lost two in a row while allowing over 400 total yards to the Vikings and Cowboys. The ladder being on National TV. The Bills are 5-1 but those five victories are against Miami, Tennessee, NY Giants, Jets, and the Bengals. Those teams have a combined record of 6-26. Also, teams are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS after beating up on the Dolphins this season. We get a pissed off team (especially on defense) getting to play a team that is challenged on offense. This seems like a great spot for the Eagles to turn its season around and get back to .500. Third straight road game for the Eagles but traveling from Philly to Buffalo is a short trip. Carson Wentz is ranked 7th in QBR (64.3) while Josh Allen is ranked 28th in QBR (37.2). This is one of the biggest QBR discrepancies in quite some time. The Eagles should win this game outright!

5*Indianapolis Colts -1

Both teams are coming off road victories against the Chiefs. The winner of this game will be in first place. The Colts lost to the Texans last year at home by a FG which dropped them to 1-3 at the time. Indy committed two costly fumbles or they just might have won. This will be the first back-to-back road trip for the Texans this season, and they have scored 84 points in their past two games. The Colts have two weeks to prepare and getting key players back for this conference rival. They won and covered after their BYE last year. NFL teams are 0-3 SU (two BYE's) after playing the Kansas City Chiefs with no rest this season. The Texans are going to miss rookie right tackle Tytus Howard who is out for at least a month. The Colts have the better offensive line and defense. Take the home team! 

5*Oklahoma State -3

The Cowboys committed five turnovers in their 10-point upset loss against Texas Tech two weeks ago. OK State will be playing with rest & revenge from last year's 35-31 loss, despite outgaining Baylor 513-402. The Cowboys are 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS after their BYE week of late. Baylor checks in with a sub-par 5-10 SU record against winning teams over the past three years. I think Oklahoma State will bounce back, considering they are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS off a loss against a conference rival of late. Baylor will be unbeaten no more. Take the hungry host!

4*Boston College +3.5

This line opened NC State -1 and the public is backing the road team by nearly an 85% clip. Boston College will be without their starting QB (Anthony Brown), but backup Dennis Grosel is more than ready. I like the fact that NC State has never played against Grosel. They don't really know what to expect. Boston College is coming off a BYE and the Wolfpack have two big revenge games on deck. Seems like a flat spot for the road team so I'm taking BC plus the points.

4*Denver Broncos -2

This will be the Titans' third road game in four weeks and at high altitude. Tough. The Broncos are ranked 5th in run defense while the Titans are ranked 21st at Football Outsiders. Tennessee is ranked 31st in pass protection. Look for the Broncos to pick up lots of sacks. Joe Flacco's QBR is at 59.9 which ranks 11th. Marcus Mariota QBR is 37.1 which ranks 27th. This seems like a great spot for the Broncos to pick up another win after upsetting the Chargers last week. Swallow the short number and take Denver! 

4*LA Rams -3

The Rams have lost two in a row and will now have 10 days to prepare. The 49ers are coming off a big win on MNF and will have to play on a short week for the first time in a long time. The look ahead line on this game had the Rams favored by 5.5 points. San Francisco will have to play this game without FB Kyle Juszczyk who is a big key to their offense. When he left game, the 49ers offense struggled mightily. There is going to be an adjustment period. Take the Rams to get back on track!

4*Iowa +3.5

Iowa played Michigan tough despite QB Nate Stanley's three interceptions. I love the Hawkeyes to bounce back at home in prime time. Penn State has played a weak schedule and almost lost to Pittsburgh. Iowa has been great as a home underdog, cashing just under 71% over the past decade. In a battle of two top 5 defensive teams, I'll take the Hawkeyes in this spot.

4*Nevada -2

It's been two weeks since Nevada suffered a 51 point home loss to Hawaii. This is a great spot to bounce back. San Jose State has been winning with smoke & mirrors (+9 turnovers) and this will be their third road game in 21 days. Nevada is a stellar 7-1 ATS off a loss against a conference rival while San Jose State is 1-9 SU against winning teams of late. I also like the QB change to Malik Henry. Take the hungry host!

5*Denver Broncos +6.5

The Broncos are one of the best 0-4 teams in quite some time. They are this close to being 2-2. Lets start up front where the Broncos O'line is ranked 7 spots higher than the Chargers thru the first four weeks. Joe Flacco is ranked 9th in QBR with a 63.3 mark while Rivers is ranked 14th with a 55.5 QBR. The Broncos defense holds QB's to a 97.3 passer rating while the Chargers allow QB's throw for a 111 passer rating which ranks 27th. They really miss Derwin James on the back end. The Chargers just signed a new kicker and punter this week. Even with Melvin Gordon returning, I like the Broncos to be much improved at stopping the run after allowing 269 rushing yards to the Jags. The Chargers don't really have a home-field advantage. The road team is 13-3-2 ATS in the past 18 meetings. More of the same! 

5*New Orleans Saints -3

The Bucs come in feeling "fat" and happy after its big outright upset over the Rams last week. We had the Bucs as a 5* best bet. Speaking of big upsets, the Bucs came into the Super Dome last year in Week 1 and won as 10-point dogs. The Saints remember that game big time. This will be the second of back-to-back road games after a West Coast trip. Tough. Tampa Bay has scored 86 points in their past two games and now must play a road game in a dome. Tough. The Saints special teams is ranked #1 while the Bucs special teams is ranked 29th at Football Outsiders. The Saints defeated the Cowboys last week despite not scoring a TD. This is a great spot for the home team. I think this line should be closer to 4.5 points. Take New Orleans!

5*Georgia Tech +10.5

This is a great spot for the home team. North Carolina is coming off a very emotional 1-point loss (went for 2-point conversion) against Clemson as nearly a 3 TD underdog. In fact, the Tarheels have played five straight one possession games. Ga Tech is coming off a misleading loss as they committed 3 turnovers inside Temple's 35-yard line. Temple also had a 74-yard fumble return touchdown. I have a feeling Ga Tech's offense will get going and keep this game within one score. Take the hungry host! 

4*Ball State +5.5

This is a big revenge game for the visitors with two weeks to prepare. Ball State lost 24-16 despite outgaining the Huskies 391-370 last season. Northern Illinois is allowing 7.5 yards per play while Ball State is allowing 5.9 yards per play. Northern Illinois is 10-0 SU against Ball State in the past 10 meetings which is why the public is pounding the home team. This is a game Ball State has circled on its schedule. I think this line should be closer to 4 points. Take the road dog! 

4*Tampa Bay Bucs +10

The Bucs have a sneaky good offense and defense. Tampa Bay is ranked #7 at Football Outsiders in total defense. It's a small sample size but after three games this team is much improved. I was shocked to see that Winston owns a better QBR (38.3) over Goff (38.1). Tampa Bay is ranked #3 against the run while the Rams are ranked 21st at Football Outsiders. In fact, Ronald Jones is the 8th most efficient running back while Todd Gurley is ranked 13th. The LA Rams have a road game at Seattle on Thursday. Mentally, this is a flat spot for the Rams. Bruce Arians has been great ATS after a straight-up loss, and he's taking a beating from the media for his intentional delay of game penalty. Tampa Bay outgained the Giants 499-384 in last week's setback. The Bucs will give a great effort. I like the road dog in this one!

4*Miami Dolphins +16.5

This line is way too high. I was thinking more like 14. The Chargers will be playing a 10:00 AM body clock game in the heat and humidity that is south Florida. They are 1-8 ATS in their past nine tries in this role. I watched the entire Dolphins/Cowboys game last week and the Dolphins played much better than the final score indicates. They had a great chance to cover. While the organization may be tanking, the Dolphins' players are not. These are professionals that want to play hard because everything goes on tape in the NFL. Future jobs are on the line. Another handicap is the fact the Dolphins have a BYE next week. There has been six teams getting double digits before their BYE week and all six teams covered the spread. Take the hungry host against a Chargers team that is overrated in my opinion. 

5*Baylor Bears +3

This will be Iowa State's first road game of the season. Baylor has revenge on their minds after losing 28-14 despite outgaining the Cyclones 505-357 last season. Baylor is allowing 3.7 yards per play (6th) on defense while Iowa State is allowing 4.7 yards per play (32nd). College Football teams that scored 70 or more points are cashing 22% as road chalk the very next week. Iowa State is 3-9 ATS after a win of 20+ points. Baylor is 6-2 ATS in their past eight meetings at home. More of the same!

5*Boston College +7

Two weeks ago, BC got smoked 48-24 as 18.5-point home chalk. I think they learned their lesson and have been waiting to play at home ever since that game ended. I love playing BC in conference games as the Eagles are 12-3-1 ATS in this role of late. I think the line should be closer to 5, so I'm taking the points with Boston College.

5*Toledo +2.5

This is a tough travel spot for BYU after playing four straight Power 5 schools. My super computer agrees and calls for a 2-point win by the Rockets. The Cougars have been outgained by 290 yards in their four games combined. The wrong team is favored. Take the points with the better defense at home!

10*Pittsburgh Steelers +7

The San Francisco 49ers return home all fat and happy after two straight road wins and covers. They have been away from home for 9 days as they stayed on the East Coast after winning at Tampa Bay. The Steelers showed me a lot in losing by 2 points after Big Ben went down. We get a fired-up team getting 7 points, against a team that is a tad overrated after defeating two teams that are 1-3 combined. Mason Rudolph has a full week to prepare as the starting QB. The team should be energized after trading for Minkah Fitzpatrick who is an upgrade at Safety. Love the Steelers in this upset maker!

4*Arizona Cardinals +2.5

Cam Newton is in a walking boot. I'm hearing he's very doubtful to play this week. That means undrafted free agent Kyle Allen will get the start. Ugh. Even if Cam plays he won't be able to run the offense the way Ron Rivera and company are accustomed to. No run-pass option for sure which use to be the staple of the Panthers' offense. Arizona is playing extremely hard and this line will reopen at Arizona -1.5 so get down ASAP.

5*Indianapolis Colts -1.5

The public is hammering the Falcons based on what they saw last Sunday night on NBC. The Falcons were very fortunate to win that game. Atlanta is much better at home than on the road. Indianapolis has covered two straight road games to start the season after everyone was giving up on them after Andrew Luck's sudden retirement. The Colts are well-coached and have lots of talent on both sides of the ball including a Top 5 offensive line. The Falcons have cluster injuries (at least two starters out) on their offensive line which came into the season ranked #22 by Pro Football Focus. The Colts defense has recorded eight sacks while the Falcons O'line has allowed five sacks. The Colts went 0-2 at home during the preseason despite outgaining both opponents by a combined 215 yards. The Colts stud linebacker Darius Leonard is questionable with a concussion. I like the Colts with or without Darius minus the small number!

5*Mississippi Rebels -2

This is a huge spot for the home team knowing they play Alabama next week. The Rebels catch California off a phony 23-17 win against North Texas as 14-point home chalk. California was outgained by 51 yards and have been outgained in two straight. This is the first road game for the Golden Bears outside the Pacific time zone. California has to play a 9:00 AM body clock game in the heat and humidity down south. The Golden Bears play Arizona State next week. Ole Miss has the the talent to win this game by 3 or more points! 

5*Northwestern +9.5

The total is around 38 points. I will almost always take the underdog if getting more than a TD with any NCAAF total below 43 points. The underdog in Northwestern games is on a 12-1-1 run. Michigan State was upset last week and the public is betting on a bounce back effort. This line opened at 6.5 points. Michigan State is 3-9 ATS in their past 12 games as a favorite. At this current number, I'm take the home underdog in this spot.

4*Green Bay Packers -3 (+100)

Minnesota is 3-0-1 SU against Green Bay the past two seasons. I love playing on new head coaches in home division games if the line is right. At -3 no juice this looks good. The Packers will have 10 days to prepare for this rivalry game. Green Bay has the significantly better offensive line ranking 17 spots higher at PFF. I like the Packers in this spot!

4*Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-119)

I love playing on most NFL teams returning home off a blowout loss. Seattle will be playing a 10:00 AM body clock game against a team that is pissed off. Advantage Pittsburgh. The Seahawks escaped with a 1-point win despite getting outgained 429-233 against the Bengals. The Steelers offensive line is ranked #3 while the Seahawks O'line is ranked #23 at PFF. Take the hungry host!

4*Virginia -7

This is the first time that Virginia is favored to win against FSU. Rightfully so in my opinion. Two programs heading in opposite directions. FSU is coming off an emotional OT win last week. Virginia has this game circled all Summer. A chance to beat up on a former powerhouse. The Cavs won easily (despite -3 turnovers) in last week's blowout win over William & Mary. If Virginia was a stock they would be a strong buy right now. Finally, my super computer has Virginia covering 7 points rather easily. Still, just a 4 unit play.

10*Air Force +5

The Buffalos are off two a 2-0 start after that 17-point comeback win in OT against Nebraska. That was the only time they led in the game. I think Air Force will treat this game as their "Championship" playing an in-state rival they never get to play. These teams have't met since 1974. I was 2 years old. Air Force has two weeks to prepare for this matchup. Love it. Colorado has been outgained in both victories. With Colorado's Pac-12 opener next week at Arizona State, I believe the Falcons can win this game outright. The early start time (11:00 AM locally) benefits the rested team. Take the road team plus the points.

4*Wake Forest -2.5

This will be North Carolina's third game in 13 days. Tough. The Tar Heels upset the Hurricanes as 5-point underdogs despite getting outgained by 99 yards. Red flag. College Football teams are cashing just under 40% after upsetting Miami in the first two weeks of the season. Take Wake Forest minus the small number.

5*Indianapolis Colts +7

Andrew Luck is gone but that doesn't mean the Colts don't have a talented roster. This team is loaded on both sides of the ball. Jacoby Brissett had been in this Colts' system and everybody loves this guy in terms of his leadership and work ethic. Just ask Bill Parcells who raves about him. Yes, Jacoby wasn't good in 2017, but that was a totally different system under than head coach Chuck Pagano. Frank Reich emphasizes quick passing and Brisett should do well, especially since the Chargers have cluster injuries in the secondary. Most notably is Derwin James who is their best athlete on the back end. What I really like about the Colts in this game is their offensive line is ranked 5th by Pro Football Focus. The Chargers offensive line is ranked 29th and this was when Russell Okung was healthy. He's out for this game. Last season, the Chargers O'line allowed pressure on 31% of Rivers drop backs. That ranked 25th in the league. Frank Reich was the Chargers offensive coordinator in 2014 and 2015. I think he knows how to defend Philip Rivers tendencies. The Chargers don't really have a home-field advantage like most teams. I love the Colts in this spot! 

5*Tennessee Titans +6

I think this line is way out of whack. Earlier in the Summer, I saw a lot of 3.5 and 4 points with huge public money pushing this line higher. The Titans are a solid team with the #4 ranked offensive line at Pro Football Focus. The Browns O'line is ranked 20th, and could struggle early. Mike Vrabel guided the Titans to a 9-7 record and to within one game of a playoff berth, all while navigating one of the NFL's toughest schedules. This should be a very competitive game so I'm taking the points.

10*Fresno State +3.5

I think this line is out of whack. The Bulldogs outgained USC despite losing 31-23 last week. Minnesota defeated South Dakota state 28-21 despite getting outgained by 59 yards. Last year, Minnesota defeated the Bulldogs thanks to an amazing interception in the end zone. Minnesota will be playing this game (7:30 PM local time) with a 9:30 PM body clock time. The Gophers are 2-10 SU in their past 12 games away from Minneapolis. Fresno State is 28-4-1 SU in home openers. Take the points and try a slice on the money line as well.  

4*Northwestern +6.5

Stanford returns just nine starters with a shaky offensive line. They have no idea which QB will start for NW. That's a big advantage for the Wildcats. I think Hunter Johnson gets the call after transferring from Clemson. The Wildcats have been awesome as road underdogs going 27-9 ATS since 2008. Take the road team plus the points.

5*Toledo Rockets +12

Last year, the Wildcats enjoyed their most successful season in over 40 years. Kentucky lost five players to the NFL including all-time leading rusher Benny Snell and top 5 NFL draft pick DE Josh Allen. The Wildcats rank #114 in returning production. These teams have been major fade bait as double-digit chalk to begin the season. Speaking of chalk, Kentucky is 2-11 ATS as favorites over the past three seasons. Toledo averaged 40.4 points last year and should reach that mark once again. The Rockets should be able to score enough points to keep this one close.  

5*BYU +6

This will be the Cougars best team in quite some time. Utah is loaded as well, especially the front seven. BYU has a very strong offensive line to begin the season, which is key in this matchup. Last season, Utah defeated BYU 35-27 as 10.5-point chalk despite getting outgained 357-296. The Cougars blew a 20-point lead, thus I believe have this game circled to being the season. Seven of the past eight meetings have been decided by 8 points or fewer. BYU ended last season by outgaining their opponent in seven straight games. Take the Cougars plus the points on Thursday night.

3*Los Angeles Rams +3

I want to start off by saying my Super Bowl winner before the season started was the LA Rams over the Steelers. I will stick with it. You certainly won't get rich betting against Brady/Belichick for almost two decades. This is a light play for sure. With that said, I think the Rams have a lot of team speed on both sides of the ball. Playing on field turf should benefit the speedy Rams against the relatively slow Pats. Wade Philips faced Tom Brady and company numerous times when he was in Denver. They held Brady below his season average in almost every important QB stat. The Rams' defense is built very similar to those great Broncos' stop units although the Rams are a notch below. If Sean McVay was not the Rams head coach I would have liked the Pats when the line first came out. This guy is special and I don't think the Pats have a huge coaching edge. Sean McVay did coach against Belichick when he was in Washington. Kirk Cousins and the Redskins lost 27-10 with seven of those 10 points coming on a late garbage TD. Sean McVay said that loss kept him up all night and that the Patriots "took his team to the woodshed". The underdog is 12-4-1 ATS in the past 17 Super Bowls. Check this out. Since 2001, the team ranked higher (better) in Overall Team Efficiency at Football Outsiders has gone 15-3 in the BIG GAME, including three straight winners. That's a large sample size. The Rams are ranked #2 while the Patriots are ranked #7 this season. You know how much I love Football Outsiders when it comes to crunching numbers. They do a tremendous job. It's a great site. Take the Rams plus the points!

NFL BIG GAME props

Successful 2-point conversion: YES +225

Defense or ST TD: NO -230

Total Rushing yards Todd Gurley: OVER 65 (-120)

Total Receiving yards Julian Edelman  OVER 80 (-120)

10*New England Patriots -4

No team in the NFL has traveled more miles than the LA Chargers this season. This will be LAC's third straight road game and second straight Eastern time zone starting in the early slot. That game last week was very physical. The Patriots have the 3rd-ranked offensive line at Football Outsiders, including #1 in sacks allowed (21). I trust the coach/QB duo to game plan for the Chargers tired legs and pass rush. Look for the Patriots to spread the Chargers out, and utilize James White & Sony Michel in the passing game. New England should take advantage with Gronk as the Chargers are ranked #20 in defending the TE. The Patriots are ranked 15 spots higher in penalties per game. New England is ranked 4th while the Chargers are ranked 19th. Tired teams tend to commit more penalties too. I told you in my write-up last week that special teams means more in the playoffs and it certainly was a factor in the Eagles win. The Chargers are ranked 25th in Special Teams (worst among remaining teams) while the Patriots are ranked 16th. New England has won 7 straight games coming off a BYE in the playoffs by an average of 17 points per game. The Patriots are 8-0 SU at home this season outscoring foes by 16 points per game and +111 yard differential. Also, this game will be in the mid 20s. That's 30 degrees colder than what the Chargers played in at Baltimore. Finally, we are getting the better head coach to say the least. The public is all over the Chargers. Not me. Take the Pats!

5*Dallas Cowboys +7.5

I love playing on NFL underdogs of 7 or more points with the better defense in the postseason. The Dallas stop unit is ranked 9th while the Rams are ranked 19th at Football Outsiders. A big factor is the crowd. A 50/50 split seems more than likely. The Rams haven't played a meaningful game in almost a month. Both teams like to run a lot. The Cowboys run defense is ranked 3rd while the Rams run defense is ranked 21st at Football outsiders. Seems like a FG game either way to me. Take the road dog!

5*Philadelphia Eagles +6

The Eagles are built a lot like the Bears with a huge advantage in playoff experience. Big factor. Chicago's offensive line is ranked 30th at Football Outsiders, despite their gaudy stats. Very few NFL teams win playoff games with that mark. The QB's are comparable (Trubisky QBR= 72.8, Foles QBR= 67.4) this season. I believe special teams means more in the playoffs and the Eagles are ranked 11 spots higher. The Bears are ranked 26th which is the worst mark of all the playoff teams. The Chargers are ranked 25th so it's real close. The Bears have won & covered four straight games and they have a +12 turnover differential. Great fade bate. I love playing on NFL underdogs in the Wild Card round if they had to win their final game to make the playoffs. This has been gold over the years. Take the Eagles!

5*Ohio State -6.5

This one looks simple to me. I like the Buckeyes to win this Rose Bowl as they will enjoy a huge talent advantage in this one. Actually, Michigan is built similar to this Huskies' squad. You all saw what happened. Blowout. Urban Meyer is 11-3 SU and 11-3 ATS in his Bowl game career. Ohio State went 7-1 SU against other Bowl teams while Washington went 6-3 SU. Ohio State is 15-4 SU and 15-4 ATS against the Pac 12 since 1993. Look for Ohio State to win the final game of Meyer's Buckeyes' career.

4*Pittsburgh U +5.5

4*Buffalo Bills -3.5

The Dolphins are now 0-2 after that dramatic last-play comeback at home against the Patriots. Miami has been outgained in nine straight games. Red flag. I can't ignore the Bills 3rd-ranked defense at Football Outsiders compared to the Dolphins 24th-ranked stop unit. Also, this is a big revenge game for the host. Miami defeated the Bills earlier this month 21-17, despite getting outgained 415-175. You can be sure Buffalo has been waiting for this rematch. Miami will be moving on from Ryan Tannehill next season according to numerous reports. The Bills are 10-3 SU and 10-3 ATS vs. the Dolphins in Buffalo over the past 13 years. More of the same with temps expected to be in the upper 20s.

5*Nevada +2

The Wolf Pack should be pumped-up to play in its first Bowl game in three years. They should enjoy a significant home-field advantage too. Arkansas State is allowing 7.6 yards per play against other Bowl teams. Very few teams win Bowl games with that mark. The Red Wolves went 0-4 SUATS and were outgained in three of the four games. Nevada is allowing 6.0 yards per play against other Bowlers. Respectable. The Wolf Pack went 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS vs. fellow Bowlers. Nevada is 8-3 ATS off a loss against a conference rival over the past three seasons. Take the points!

10*Syracuse +1.5

West Virginia came up just short of playing in the Big 12 Title game and will now play without QB Will Grier and their best offensive lineman. Jack Allison will start and he's only attempted 10 passes this season. Syracuse hasn't played in a Bowl game since 2013, and will be looking to reach 10+ wins since 2001. Hugh motivational edge favors Syracuse. Western Virginia is 7-27 SU in Bowl games since 1987, including 0-5 ATS L5 under Dana Holgorsen. Take the Orange to win easily!  

5*Baylor Bears +4.5

The Commodores played only a slightly tougher schedule than the Bears. Baylor won 1 game last season and now they are playing in the Texas Bowl. The Bears matchup with the Commodores at every level and should enjoy a home field advantage with Waco, Tx about 185 miles away. Vandy went 2-6 SU against other Bowl teams. Vandy has covered 5 straight games to end the regular season. That's a sweet fade in this bowl game. I'm taking the points with the better offense and defense!

5*Duke +4.5

The Blue Devils are coming off an ugly 59-7 loss against Wake Forest in the last game of the regular season. That's the worst loss in David Cutcliffe's 17-year head coaching career. The players love the guy and the entire team should be pumped up. Ed Foley will coach this game for Temple. He coached Temple two years ago in a bowl game and it wasn't pretty. Temple lost outright to Wake Forest as 11-point chalk. Temple has struggled against dual-threat QB's this season and QB Daniel Jones should thrive in this spot. Finally, Cutcliffe is 9-2 ATS in Bowl Games. Take the dog!

5*Seattle Seahawks +2.5

This line suggests that the Chiefs would be 8.5-point chalk if this game was in Kansas City. Seems high to me. The Seahawks should be able to run against the Chiefs' last-ranked run defense at Football Outsiders. This will shorten the game and keep Patrick Mahomes and company off the field. The Chiefs have a passer rating against of 104.7 in road games. Seattle is ranked 19th in team defense at football outsiders while the Chiefs are ranked 27th. NFL winning home underdogs with the better defense are cashing close to 70% in December of late. Also, Seattle is 11-1-1 ATS as home underdogs since 2011. Take the Seahawks!

5*Philadelphia Eagles -124 (money line)

The Eagles are focused with Nick Foles under Center. This team is playing with passion and should be pumped-up in their last home game of the season. The Texans have been outgained in three straight games and have not committed a turnover in five straight games. Classic fade bate. This will also be the Texans second straight road game. They are 0-2 SU this season in that role. Houston has won 10 of 11 games with looks impressive. But, the combined record of the opponents Houston defeated is only 53-68. Finally, the Texans are 2-9 ATS in December games of late. Take the hungry host!

5*Troy +2.5

I think Buffalo U will be flat after blowing a 29-10 lead in the MAC championship game. Lance Leipold will be coaching in his very first bowl game. Advantage Troy. The Trojans should have a huge crowd edge. Advantage Troy. Troy went 3-2 SU against other bowl teams. Don't forget MAC bowlers are 1-10 SU of late. The Trojans are looking for 10+ wins for 3 straight years. Take the dog! 

5*Florida International +6.5

FIU QB James Morgan is a Bowling Green transfer. He threw for 335 yards and 5 touchdowns vs. the Rockets last year. FIU head coach Butch Davis is 6-2 ATS in bowl games. The Golden Panthers should be well represented in the stands as the team is only 180 miles away from home. Toledo, OH is close to 1,200 miles away. Toledo scored 107 points combined in their past two games and now must travel to play a bowl game. Tough. FIU is 6-1 ATS off a loss against a Conference Rival in their past seven tries. Take the dog!

5*UAB Blazers -1.5

The Blazers played their first Bowl game since 2004 last season. It showed, as they got annihilated 41-6 by Toledo in the Bahamas Bowl. They should be super focused in this one. I believe UAB owns the better offense and defense. I have them rated 3.5 points better than Northern Illinois on a neutral field. We have tremendous value at this current number. Northern Illinois is 6-18 ATS when playing on a neutral field, including 3-8 ATS in Bowl games since 1993. The Huskies average just 5.4 yards per passing attempt. Very few teams win Bowl games with that mark. UAB wins their first Bowl game in school history. Lay it!

5*Indianapolis Colts -2.5

I have watched every Cowboys game since 1982. I can tell you when they play at 1:00 PM E it hasn't been pretty. Why? They rarely ever play in this time slot. The Cowboys are coming off a high-emotional National TV game. Dak Prescott threw for a career-high 455 yards in that OT thriller. Dallas ran 93 plays (3rd most this year) and I would expect the offense to be lethargic in this game, especially with a banged up offensive line. The Colts have allowed just 16 sacks which ranks 4th. Dallas has allowed 48 sacks which ranks 30th. That's a huge advantage for the host. We get the much better offensive line at home laying under 3. Love it. Andrew Luck has a QBR of 69.3 while Dak Prescott has a QBR of 53.8. The league average is around 60. Indy has a sneaky good defense. The Colts are ranked 11th at Football Outsiders. Dallas is ranked 7th. The Colts offense is ranked 13th at Football Outsiders while the Cowboys are ranked 25th. They have been better with Amari Cooper though. The Colts are ranked 11th in overall team efficiency while the Cowboys are ranked 17th. The Colts are second-best team at converting 3rd downs this season. Dallas is ranked 26th in 3rd down defense. Lay it!

5*Buffalo Bills -2

The Bills are 0-2 SU the past two weeks despite outgaining both opponents by +360 combined. Josh Allen is a tough matchup for teams that haven't seen him thanks to dynamic running ability. The Bills are ranked #3 in team defense at Football Outsiders while Detroit is ranked #29. Detroit won at Arizona 17-3 despite getting outgained 279-218. The Lions are 0-5 after a win by 14 or more points of late. Second straight road for the Lions and they are 0-1 SU and 0-1 ATS in that role this year. Josh Allen has a QBR of 57.1 while Matt Stafford check in at 50.7 QBR. I like fading dome teams playing in cold weather the final month of the season.

4*Middle Tenn State +7

App State had a tremendous season but will have an interim head coach calling the shots. This will the final game for the father/son head coach QB duo. Brent Stockstill is a 4-year senior and his skill set plays well in College. The Blue Raiders played a tough non-conference schedule playing 3 SEC teams. I think they will keep this one close.

5*Fresno State -4

I have the Bulldogs rated significantly higher (6 points on a neutral field) than the Sun Devils. Fresno State is allowing 4.8 yards per play on defense while Arizona State is allowing 5.7 per play.  Fresno State should be motivated in this game as they want to end the season with 12 wins. In 2012, the Bulldogs had 11 wins going into their bowl game and lost 43-10 to SMU. This game will be played on turf. The Bulldogs played 12 games on turf this season and went 10-2 SU. The Sun Devils played three games on turf and went 1-2 SU. The Sun Devils have numerous injuries and key players that will not participate in this game. Arizona State is just 5-10 SU and 5-10 ATS in bowl games since 1993. Fresno State is 27-10 ATS in all games over the past three seasons. Lay it! 

10*Indianapolis Colts +5.5

The Texans have won nine consecutive games which started in a Week four road victory over these Colts, by just 3 points in OT at the buzzer. Indianapolis outgained Houston 478-466, while sacking Deshaun Watson 7 times. Andrew Luck threw for 437 yards and now the Texans have cluster injuries in the secondary. Marlon Mack did not play in that game and he enters this contest averaging 5.0 yards per carry, the same exact average as Lamar Miller. Last week, the Texans won despite getting outgained 428-384. Houston benefited from a +4 turnover margin. Speaking of turnovers, the Texans have played two straight games without committing any. That's not sustainable. The Colts were shutout in Jacksonville, despite outgaining the Jags 265-211. The Colts' offensive line is ranked 14 spots higher at Football Outsiders. NFL underdogs with same-season revenge that own the significantly better offensive line have been gold through the years. The Colts are 3-1 SU in revenge games this season. Andrew Luck has a QBR of 74.6 which ranks 5th in all of football. Deshaun Watson has a QBR of 59.8 which ranks 17th. We get 5.5 points with the much better offensive line and QB. Love it. This is a must win game for a team that scored 0 points last week. Love it. The Colts are ranked #2 in Third Down conversion percentage this season. Houston ranks 14th. The combined W/L records of the Texans' 9 consecutive wins is 49-58. I'm not that impressed. The Colts are 8-2 ITS (in the stats) L10, while the Texans are 6-4 ITS L10. Houston is 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS in the last four weeks of the regular season of late. I love the Colts in this spot! Try a slice on the money line as well.  

5*Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-124)

The Chargers have won seven of their past eight games, but only the Seahawks had a winning record. The Steelers are coming off that meltdown against the Broncos and I really like them to bounce back at home. Philip Rivers completed 25 straight passes (NFL record) and set an an NFL record for completion percentage in a game (28 for 29). That will not happen again and you can be sure the Steelers defense will be ready. Pittsburgh is ranked 1st in sacks. I always love fading teams/players off a record setting performance especially in football. The Chargers are ranked dead last in special teams play at Football Outsiders. The weather conditions should benefit the home team as well. Take the Steelers before this line climbs to four.

5*Buffalo Bills +5

The Bills offense plays better with Josh Allen under center. The advanced analytics prove it. His mobility is a big factor playing against teams for the first time. I can't say the same for the Dolphins. Brock Osweiler has a better QBR than Ryan Tannehill this season. The major handicap is the fact that the Bills have the 2nd-best team defense, while the Dolphins stop unit is ranked 21st at Football Outsiders. Miami has not fared well against QB's that can run. In fact, the Dolphins have been outgained in nine of their past 10 games, including five in a row. Miami is ranked 29th in sacks. That should bode well for Josh Allen and the Bills' offense. I don't think the warmer weather is a factor as the Bills had their BYE two weeks ago. The Bills are 7-3 ATS in the past 10 meetings. Miami has not defeated the Bills by more than 3 points since November of 2014. The Dolphins are 5-15 ATS in their past 20 games in the month of December. The Bills are well-coached and love them as a division underdog in this low-scoring game.

5*Texas +8

Wow. This line seems super inflated to me. I would have made the game closer to 6. Texas has covered six straight against the Sooners. DFEI is defensive efficiency adjusted for the strength of opponent offenses faced. Texas is ranked #45 while Oklahoma is ranked 94th at Football Outsiders. We get 8 points with the much better defense in a championship game. Solid. The Longhorns are 10-3 ATS as underdogs over the past three years. Oklahoma is 1-5 ATS off a win against a conference rival and 2-5 ATS on a neutral field of late. Take the Longhorns in this upset maker.

5*Denver Broncos +3 (+100)

This looks to be the trap line of the year. How can a Steelers team that is 7-2-1 be favored by just 3 points (opened at 3.5) in Denver who is 4-6. Here's why. The major handicap is the fact that the Steelers will be playing in back-to-back road games for the first time all year. The schedule makers were very kind to the Steelers so far this season. It gets tougher. Think about this. They fly to Jacksonville and play a high-emotional game winning at the very end in dramatic fashion. They hop on a plane and travel back home. Now, they make the long trip to Denver in altitude. The airport is about 1 hour away from the hotel/stadium. Long bus ride. Denver is ranked 4th in team defense while the Steelers are ranked 13th at Football Outsiders. The Steelers and Broncos are ranked 6th & 7th respectively in overall team efficiency. Denver has a sneaky good offensive line, ranking 5th while Pittsburgh is ranked 14th. Pittsburgh hasn't played against a pass rush like this Broncos' team possess all year. The Broncos are ranked 3rd in time-of-possession in all of football. At high-altitude combined with the Steelers playing on the road for the second straight week should bode well for the home team. Pittsburgh is just 5-13 ATS in their past 18 games in Week 12. Denver is 14-7 SU & ATS as home underdogs of 3 points or less since 1993. Take the Broncos!

5*BYU +12

The Utes are more focused on next week's Pac 12 Championship game in my opinion. BYU has outgained their opponent in five straight games while playing stingy defense. These two teams play tight games as 17 of the past 20 tilts have been decided by 7 points or less. The underdog is 15-5 ATS in the past 20 meetings. More of the same. Temps are expected to be in the low to mid 30s with a 50% chance of rain/snow. Winds 10-20 MPH. Take BYU plus the generous 12 points in this spot!

4*Ohio State +5

Now that the line has reached 5 points I have to take Ohio State. The public is all over Michigan at nearly a 70% clip. Take Ohio State in this upset maker!

4*Washington Redskins +7.5 (-115)

These two teams are no strangers to each other. Colt McCoy has spent many years in Texas and loves playing against the Cowboys. His two best games of his career came against Dallas. Colt McCoy has some skills that should keep this game close. Also, the Redskins defense is ranked 14th at Football Outsiders while the Cowboys are ranked 21st. Overall team efficiency finds the Redskins ranked 16th while Dallas is ranked 22nd. Washington is ranked 19 spots higher in special teams play. I don't think Colt McCoy is the answer long term but should be good enough in this game. Look for the Redskins improve to 7-1 ATS as underdogs this season.

5*Denver Broncos +7.5

The Broncos have two weeks to prepare for their division rival in a big time revenge spot. Denver got shutout (21-0) in Los Angeles on (12/22/17) despite outgaining LAC 251-242. LAC won the turnover battle 3-0 and that was the difference. The Chargers' defense has been on the field for 138 plays over the past two weeks. Tough. LAC has played a very soft schedule. In the Chargers' seven victories their opponents combined won/loss record is 18-37. Denver has played a very tough schedule. In the Broncos' six losses their foes combined won/loss record is 31-17. LAC is 10-33 ATS in their past 43 home games. LAC is 2-5 ATS after a SU & ATS win of late. I love the two headed monster with Royce Freeman (returning) and Phillip Lindsay at RB. This is a classic overlay so take the generous 7.5 points!

5*Minnesota U -1

Minnesota plays much better at home and they need one more victory to become bowl-eligible. With Wisconsin on deck, the Golden Gophers should be super focused in their final home game. Northwestern has already secured a spot in the Big Ten Championship game. Not much to play for. Take the hungry host!

4*Seattle Seahawks -1

Seattle has dropped its past two games overall and at Centurylink Field. The Seahawks are 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS after losing two or more consecutive games this season. The Packers have allowed 31, 29, 31, and 31 points in their past four road games. Jimmy Graham returns to Seattle knowing the Seahawks are allowing the sixth fewest fantasy points against TE's this season. Advantage Seattle. The Packers are allowing opposing QB's throw for a 106.6 passer rating (25th) in road games. On the flip side, the Seahawks are holding opposing QB's to an 80.8 passer rating (7th) in home tilts. Seattle is ranked 19 spots higher in team defense at Football Outsiders and should enjoy a huge edge in special teams play. The home team is 8-2 SU on Thursday nights this season. The Seahawks are 7-3-1 ATS on Thursday's since 1993. Take the hungry host!

10*Seattle Seahawks +10

Largest underdog role for Russell Wilson in his career. This line is inflated and will be going down for sure. Seattle was one dropped pass from a potential tie at the end of regulation last week against the LA Chargers. They would have needed a 2-point conversion as well. The Seahawks already played the Rams tough this year losing by just two points. Seattle has a real defense, allowing 333.3 yards per game compare to 348.7 for the Rams. The Seahawks are ranked 5th in team defense while the Rams are ranked 16th at Football Outsiders. Seattle is holding opposing QB's to an 83 passer rating while the Rams are allowing opposing QB's to a 94.4 passer rating. Don't forget, the Rams have cluster injuries at Linebacker and have played back-to-back emotional games against Green Bay and New Orleans. Finally, I wonder just how much "gas" is left in the Rams' tank. They haven't had a BYE yet. Seattle had its BYE two weeks ago. I love double-digit division underdogs with same season revenge. Especially, with a Top 10 QB. Take the road dog plus the generous 10 points!

4*Cleveland Browns +5

4*Cincinnati Bengals +6

5*California +5.5

USC has won 14 consecutive games vs the Golden Bears. California brings in the better offense and defense. A stop unit that is allowing just 4.8 net yards per play. USC has cluster injuries in the secondary and they have UCLA on deck. California is 8-2 ATS in their past 10 games after scoring less than 20 points. USC is 18-37-1 ATS in their past 56 games after a SU win. And that's when USC had better teams! Take the road dog in this upset maker.

4*Tennessee U +6.5

10*Indiana U  PK

Indiana has been waiting for this matchup all season. This is a big revenge game for the Hoosiers who lost last year 42-39, despite outgaining Maryland 483-345. Peyton Ramsey is completing 68% of his passes while Kasim Hill is completing a smidgen over 50%. QB play is huge in November, and with two weeks to prepare I really like Indiana in this spot. There are a lot of distractions on the Maryland campus right now. Don't forget, they played a very physical game last week vs. MSU. The Spartans rushed the ball 46 times for 269 yards and held the ball for almost 37 minutes. Huge advantage for the host playing with fresh legs. The Terps are 1-8 SU in November over the past three seasons. Indiana is a respectable 9-9 SU at home when not laying more than 2 points over the past three years. Maryland is ranked 278th in yards per game while Indiana is ranked 83rd. Unload on the host!

5*Seattle Seahawks -1

This will be the Seahawks first home game since the unfortunate passing of their owner, Paul Allen. Expect a very emotional crowd. Seattle is 4-1 SU in their past five games with the only loss by just 2 points against the unbeaten LA Rams. The Seahawks love playing at home where they are 54-18 SU since 2010. Seattle is ranked #2 in team defense while LAC is ranked #18 at Football Outsiders. The Chargers offense had been rolling, but the BYE week tends to regress those returning teams back to the mean. The Chargers are ranked dead last in Special teams play at Football Outsiders. These teams are cashing 35% when playing in Seattle. Take the Seahawks!

5*Minnesota Vikings -4

The Vikings deserved a better fate last week after outgaining the Saints by 153 yards in the 10-point home loss. Now the Vikings are home again knowing they haven't defeated the Lions at home since 9/20/15. Minnesota is holding opposing QB's to a 91.2 (13th) passer rating while the Lions are allowing opposing QB's earn a 114.2 (31st) passer rating. The Vikings are ranked 13th in team defense while the Lions are ranked 30th at Football Outsiders. The Vikings offense is ranked 18th while the Lions are ranked 26th. Don't forget, Detroit just traded their leading receiver in Golden Tate. The rest of the guys can't be happy with that. Detroit played a very physical game last week. NFL teams are 1-4 ATS after playing the Seattle Seahawks this season.

5*LSU +14.5

Both teams will be playing with rest. It will hurt Alabama who had all the momentum of being undefeated. Happens a lot in College Football. This line shocks me even with the first half suspension. I think the Tigers will have even more motivation. Alabama has played two teams in the Top 50, while LSU has played five Top 30 (not 50) teams already. There has never been a Top 4 team getting this many points at home. Never. Keep in mind that LSU has just one home loss by more than 10 points in their past 67 tilts. Alabama is just 3-5 ATS in weeks 10 thru 13 over the past three years. On the flip side, LSU is 6-2 ATS over that same time frame. The Tigers have been installed as an underdog 7 times in the past three years. The Tigers are 5-2 ATS when taking points. This is a classic overlay. Alabama wins but LSU gets the cash!

5*LA Tech +24

Battle of the Bulldogs. LA Tech covered against LSU as a big underdog and will now face a lesser team in my opinion. Flat spot for Miss State having played LSU & Texas A&M with Alabama on deck. LA Tech gave up two defensive TD's and that infamous 87- yard loss on a fumble in last year's matchup. The host is 2-6 ATS off a win vs. a conference foe of late, while LA Tech is 21-7 ATS as a road dog. I like the road Bulldogs plus the points.

4*Minnesota Vikings -105 (money line)

I feel like the Saints are overvalued in this spot after what happened between these two teams last postseason. The Vikings are at home (15-5 SU L20) where they have been dynamite, the Bills game notwithstanding. Minnesota is ranked 13th in passer rating against (91) while the Saints are ranked 31st (112.2) at Football Outsiders. Wow! Not surprisingly, the Vikings have the better overall defense too. The Vikings will be pumped-up for this prime time affair and should be favored by 2 points. Take the home team!

4*Green Bay Packers +9.5

This line seems high to me. Green Bay has two weeks to prepare and get healthy. Aaron Rogers has never been an underdog by this many points. You don't think he knows. He does. The Packers are ranked #9 in time of possession. They should be able to shorten the game and limit the Rams' possessions. Both teams have big games next week. The Packers play at New England. The Rams fly to New Orleans. Take the road dog!

5*Denver Broncos +10

The Broncos will have three extra days to get healthy and prepare for this same-season revenge game. In Week 4, Denver was leading 23-13 with 12:47 left in the 4th quarter, and than proceeded to lose the game by four points. The Chiefs offense looks unstoppable right now. But, 10 points to a team that has some favorable stats and has seen KC already. Love it. The Broncos are ranked 6th in passer rating against (85.4). That's a real stat when handicapping NFL games in 2018. Denver should be able to move the ball against this Chiefs' defense. The Broncos offensive line is ranked #7, while the Chiefs offensive line is ranked #19 at Football Outsiders. Denver defense #8, Chiefs defense #26. Denver is ranked #10 in net yards per play (5.9) with KC #1 (6.9). Yes, the Chiefs stop unit looked great last week, but that's against Andy Dalton and the Bengals. Cincinnati is a dumpster fire in prime time games with Dalton. This is a double-digit same-season division revenge game before Week 10. These teams are cashing 79% over the past decade. It doesn't happen often though so get down ASAP. I am pretty sure this line will close under 10.

4*Stanford -2.5

4*Missouri -7

4*Iowa +6

4*Washington Redskins -1.5