5*Philadelphia Eagles +9

The Eagles have a Top four offensive line which helps lead Philadelphia to a 4.9 yards per rush average. They also own the better special teams unit which could be a factor in the rain/wind. A cold front is scheduled to sweep across Tampa, FL right about game time. The Forecast calls for Rain (0.50 inch) and very windy conditions (20-30 MPH, with gusts near 40 MPH) so the underdog gets the call in this one. Tampa Bay went 1-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the regular season. Down to wire!

10*Cincinnati Bengals -5.5

The Las Vegas Raiders escaped with a 35-32 OT win late Sunday night, despite getting outgained by 94 yards. The Raiders' defense was on the field for 88 plays and 38:41 of field time. Seven of the Raiders' 10 wins have occurred indoors. Las Vegas will be playing their first game in sub-freezing temps in quite some time. I think traveling East and playing Saturday at 4:30 PM E is not an ideal spot. The Raiders have a -3.8 point differential and these teams don't perform well on the road in the playoffs. On the flip side, the Bengals have a +5.0 point differential. The Raiders commit the second-most penalties per game, while the Bengals commit the second-fewest. No revenge for Las Vegas. Take the Bengals!

5*LA Rams -4

As a local, I have a pretty good read on this team. The Rams are sick & tired of hearing how the 49ers have dominated them in the past (5-0 L5). Jimmy G is not 100% healthy. Trey Lance is still a rookie making his second career road start. Whichever QB starts for SF, the Rams have the edge in my opinion. The Rams (6th) have played a much tougher schedule than SF (22nd). The Rams are ranked No. 6 in special teams, while the 49ers are ranked No. 27 this season. SF is 2-2 SU and 1-4 ATS on turf, while the Rams are 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS on turf this season. The public is all over the underdog making the 49ers a square dog. Take the Rams (minus the points) to the bank!

5*Washington Football Team +3.5

The Eagles defeated Washington just 12 days ago by 10 points. The Football Team were missing numerous starters including their top two QB's. The Football team return home after getting embarrassed at Dallas. I would expect a much better effort. The Eagles will be without leading rusher Miles Sanders and QB J. Hurts is playing with an ankle injury. I think we're getting two points of value in this division game. I'm going against the public in this one. Take the points!

10*Baltimore Ravens +5.5

This will be the Rams' third game in 12 days after having to play on Tuesday, Dec. 21. This will also be the Rams' first back to back road trip without extra rest this season. This game was originally scheduled for 4:25 PM E. Now, it's an early game (10:00 AM body clock) for the Rams, who had to fly back to the West Coast after playing at Minnesota. No Lamar is fine by me. Tyler Huntley has a QBR of 58.9, while Lamar's QBR is 50.1. QBR is a percentage so anything over 50 is above average. By comparison, P. Mahomes QBR is 59.0, which shows just how well Huntley has played.

The Rams have been outgained in four of their past six games, while the Ravens have outgained opponents in four of their past five. The Ravens are ranked No. 3 in third-down defense, while the Rams are ranked No. 20 this season. Look at the Rams when they don't play on turf. They are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS when playing on a grass surface this season. The Rams are also 1-3 ATS vs. winning teams. The Ravens are 9-3 ATS as underdogs over the past three seasons, including 4-1 ATS this year. The Ravens get numerous key defensive players back after having to sit out due to Covid restrictions. Take the Ravens in their Super Bowl!

4*Oklahoma State +2.5

I think losing HC Brian Kelly to USC doesn't bode well for ND in this game. The Fighting Irish will be without their top RB (Williams) and top Safety (Hamilton) as well. The Cowboys played a tougher schedule (.575 vs .505) and own the better defense. Oklahoma State's defensive line is ranked No. 3, while ND is ranked No. 59 this season. ND is ranked No. 112 in third-down efficiency. The Fighting Irish went 6-1 SU against other bowl teams, getting outgained in four of the seven. The Cowboys went 7-2 SU against fellow bowl teams, outgaining six of nine foes. Notre Dame has played in seven NY6/BCS bowl games since 2000. They are 0-7 SU and 0-7 ATS, with a 102-263 point differential. Take the underdog!

5*Air Force +1.5

The Falcons have the significantly better defense line (#37 vs. #98) and overall defense (#47 vs. #71). That travels well this time of year. Air Force is 23-8 SU over the past three seasons. Teams have fits trying to contain the Falcons' run-heavy offense. When the Falcons do throw, they average 9.5 yards per pass. Louisville was last seen allowing 52 points, 362 rushing yards, and 511 total yards in a loss against Kentucky. This will be the Cardinals' 10th bowl game in 12 years. They sport a 5-4 SU & 5-4 ATS record. I love the fact that Air Force is 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS on turf this season, while Louisville is just 4-5 SU & 4-5 on turf. The Falcons have a fast, ball-hawking defense (19.1 ppg) that performs well on turf. Louisville went 2-6 SU against other bowl teams, while Air Force went 3-3. Do note the Falcons outgained five of the six. Finally, Air Force is 5-1 ATS as a neutral-field underdog of 3 points or less since 1993. Take the dog! 

5*Minnesota Vikings +3

Both teams will be playing with short rest, but the Rams are in the tougher spot. They have won and covered three straight games. LA is 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS after winning three straight since 2018. The Vikings have played 11 straight games decided by single digits. They are the only team not to drop any game by more than 8 points. Minnesota was lucky to win at Chicago and should play much better returning home. The Vikings are ranked No. 3 in QB sacks (44) and ranked No. 2 in QB sacks allowed (22) this season. Strong combo. Imagine you're a football team (LAR) having to prepare/play for a night game than travel five days later for a 1:00 PM E (10:00 AM body clock) game in week 16. The Vikings own the fifth-best special teams unit, while the Rams are ranked No. 17 this season. Kirk Cousins does his best work (58.4% ATS) in this time slot (1:00 PM E). Take the home underdog plus the points.

10*Central Florida +6.5

Motivation plays a big part when handicapping Bowl games. The Gators played three straight major bowl games past three seasons and now have to settle for this minor bowl game. Florida will be without departed head coach Dan Mullen and most of his staff. Future NFL studs DE Zach Carter and WR Jacob Copeland are OUT as well. It's likely more Gators will opt out. Florida went 6-6 SU and 3-9 ATS, while ranking No. 121 in net turnover margin. Florida went 1-6 SU against bowl teams. Both squads have comparable offensive lines (38th and 39th). UCF is ranked No. 57 in defensive line play, while the Gators are ranked No. 96. Missing DE Zach Carter and his team-leading 8 sacks with 12 tackles for a loss only adds to their misery.

UCF head coach Gus Malzahn has sneaky revenge in this game. His Auburn Tigers lost to Florida 24-13 as 2.5-point underdogs in 2019. Gus is 21-11 ATS in his career seeking revenge. UCF has edges in red-zone scoring and penalties committed. UCF has the better offense and defense against fellow bowl teams. UCF won this Bowl (Gasparillia) game two years ago. Last year, UCF dropped the Boca Raton Bowl 49-23 against BYU. Take the Knights plus the points and try a slice on the money line! 

5*Atlanta Falcons +9

This line seems inflated to me by at least 1.5 points. The Falcons have been much better in the trenches since their BYE week, so the season long stats are skewed quite a bit. Atlanta defeated the 49ers back in 2019, as 10.5-point underdogs at Levi's Stadium. The 49ers are 1-11-1 in their past 13 games as a favorite. SF is 3-10 ATS vs. losing teams of late. This game qualifies as a highly profitable system play. Home favorites following an OT game. Theses teams are 37-58-4 ATS (38.9%) since 2008. This angle also applies to the Saints this week. The Falcons are 7-2 ATS in the last four weeks of the regular season past three years. The 49ers play at Tennessee on Thursday so not much reason to win by margin. Take the road dog!

5*Marshall +6

UL Lafayette is coming off a victory over App. State for the second time this season. This seems like a flat spot after that sparkling performance. Marshall lost 53-21 at home against Western Kentucky in their final game of the regular season. The Thundering Herd average +1.3 net yards per play while UL owns a +0.9 net yards per play. Marshall has the better offense, special teams and red-zone stats. This game will be played at the Superdome in New Orleans. It's important to know that the playing surface (Turf Nation) is completely different than UL's home stadium, Cajun Field (Artificial turf). The Herd are 12-4 SU & 12-4 ATS in all bowl games since 1993. Marshall is 5-1 ATS in their past six games after allowing 40+ points. UL is 3-6 ATS as chalk this season. UL is 7-16 SU against Conference USA opponents since 1993. Look for the Rajin' Cajunes fall to 0-5 ATS in bowl games of late. Take the points and try a slice on the money line!

5*Cincinnati Bengals +1.5

Tough spot for the 49ers with cluster injuries at RB and CB. Not to mention their first back-to-back road trip this season, and third road game in 22 days. The 49ers are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS on turf this season. The turf in Cincinnati (Shaw Sports Momentum Pro) is completely different than the turf in Seattle (Field turf). The Bengals' offensive line is ranked No. 10 at Football Outsiders, while SF is ranked No. 19 this season. Cincinnati will be getting both starting tackles back after missing last week's home loss. The Bengals are ranked No. 4 against the run, while SF is ranked No. 18 this season. Cincinnati commits the fewest penalties per game (4.2) and are 6-1 ATS after a double digit loss at home. The Bengals are ranked No. 10 in special teams, while the 49ers are ranked No. 22 this season. Coldest game of the season for SF to date. They are 0-2 SU in cold weather games (40 or below at kickoff), but the kick-off temp should be closer to 44 degrees. I thought it was worth mentioning. Take the hungry host!

5*Detroit Lions +7

This will be the Vikings' fourth road game in five weeks. Two of those games were on the West coast. The Lions will have three extra days of rest after playing on Thanksgiving. The Lions are allowing 4.3 yards per rush, while Minnesota is allowing 4.8 this season. The Lions have the better offensive line, defensive line, and total defense at Football outsiders. Also, the Lions have the fourth-best special teams in all of football. If D. Swift doesn't play, Jamaal Williams is more than capable. The Vikings defense will be without E. Griffen, D. Hunter, and Patrick Peterson. Hunter & Griffen had three sacks and one forced fumble combined in the first matchup. Teams are 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS after playing the San Francisco 49ers this season. The Vikings play (Steelers) Thursday night so no reason to win by margin. Take the winless home underdog with the better defense!

4*Denver Broncos +3

Love the Broncos as division home underdogs. Denver is ranked No. 4 in opponent passer rating which should matchup well against the pass-happy Chargers. LA scored 40+ points last week and now travel to high-altitude. The Broncos are 2-0 ATS after their BYE week of late. Denver is 23-6 SU and 21-6 ATS when playing with two weeks of rest. The Chargers are 2-7 SU in weeks 10 thru 13 of late. Take the Broncos in this one!

4*California +6.5

The Bears had two dozen players (including QB) and coaches out with Covid in a loss against Arizona. They all returned in a dominating performance against Stanford last week. California needs two wins to become bowl eligible. UCLA has a bowl game already wrapped up with no chance of winning the PAC 12. California is ranked No. 36 in net yards per play. UCLA is ranked No. 55 in net yards per play. The Bruins are 0-6 ATS after playing USC of late. UCLA is 1-4 SU and 1-4 ATS after two or more consecutive wins the past three years. The Bears are 10-2 ATS as an underdog past 12 tries. I like the road dog!

5*Indianapolis Colts +7.5

I just think the Colts physical style of play can keep this one close in bad weather. The Colts are well-coached and have familiarity with Buffalo. The Bills defeated Indy 27-24 as 7-point home favorites back in Jan. despite getting outgained 472-397. Nice revenge spot. Take the road dog!

5*Houston Texans +10.5

Tyrod Taylor should be much better with a game in hand and more reps during their BYE week. His running and escape-ability plays well as big underdog. The Titans have played 11 straight weeks with five signature wins in a row. Tennessee has been outgained by 262 combined yards in their past two wins. Red flag. Seems like a flat spot with the New England Patriots on deck. Tennessee has a massive injury list. Take the road dog!

10*Oregon State +3

The Sun Devils have a very slim chance of catching Utah for the Pac-12 crown. Arizona State needed to score 21 fourth-quarter points in defeating Washington last week. The Beavers have advantages in points, yards, red-zone efficiency, special teams, and they are the more disciplined team. Oregon State has the No. 1 ranked offensive line at Football Outsiders. The Beavers overall power rating has increased every week. This will be the first back-to-back road trip for ASU all season. The Sun Devils are 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS in the second game of a back-to-back. Check this out. Arizona State is 2-5 SU in cold weather games when traveling to CO, OR, UT, and WA. The Sun Devils are 3-8 ATS as road chalk in their past 11 games. Oregon State is 7-1 ATS at home of late. Arizona State has played just two games on Field turf this season, going 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. Oregon State is 5-2 SU and 5-2 ATS on the same surface (Field turf). I like the Beavers plus the points in this spot. Try a slice on the money line!

4*Memphis +9.5

This will be the Houston Cougars' fourth game in twenty days. Big advantage for Memphis. Both teams won and covered recently against SMU. Houston was +1 while Memphis was +3 playing at SMU. This line seems very high to me. Memphis has a really good offensive line (No. 39) and they even had the better stats against a common opponent. Houston is 3-11 ATS in their past 14 games after a SU win of 20+ points. Memphis is 6-0 ATS in this series of late. The Tigers won three games outright as underdogs. More of the same! 

5*LA Chargers -2.5

This will be the first West Coast game for the Vikings this season. Kirk Cousins sports a 1-5 SU record when playing on the West Coast with Minnesota. The Vikings played a physical overtime game against Baltimore last week, in which their defense was on the field for 89 plays and 46:04 of field time. The Chargers own a +0.3 yard differential, while the Vikings are -0.1 this season. Justin Herbert's QBR is 64.1 while Cousins' QBR is 55.3. The Chargers offensive line is ranked No. 17, while the Vikings are ranked No. 28 at Football Outsiders. NFL teams are 2-4 SU and 2-4 ATS after playing the Ravens without rest this season. Minnesota possibly missing six starters on defense and they play Green Bay at home next week. Take LAC!

5*Syracuse +3

The Orange had this game circled ever since the schedule was released. Syracuse lost 30-0 in Louisville last season. In a schedule quirk, they now return to the same venue with extra prep time, in hopes of becoming bowl-eligible. Syracuse is one of the most improved teams across the board. The Orange own a +1.3 net yard differential, while Louisville owns a +0.7. Syracuse owns the better offensive line, defensive line, and overall defense. The Orange play NC State and Pittsburgh who will be significant favorites. Look for the Orange to win outright and improve to 9-1 ATS this season.

5*San Francisco 49ers +2.5

The 49ers bring in the better offensive and defensive lines at Football Outsiders. SF defensive line is ranked No. 5 while Arizona is ranked No. 21. Kyler Murray is questionable to start. I'm hearing Arizona wants to hold him out until he's 100% healthy. That won't be this week. Colt McCoy will start for Arizona. The 49ers lost 17-10 earlier this season, despite out-gaining Arizona 338-304. Kyle Shanahan knows how to defend Murray just in case he starts. I think this is the perfect time to start fading Kliff Kingsbury and company. Kyle Shanahan is 8-4 SU & 8-4 ATS in revenge games over the past three years. Take the home dog!

4*Memphis +5

SMU suffered its first loss of the season last week and will now have to get motivated for another road game at Memphis. Tough ask considering the Mustangs are 3-9 ATS as road favorites past 12 tries. The Tigers are 5-2 ATS after their BYE week and will be playing with revenge from last year's setback. Memphis has a really good offensive line (#24 at Football Outsiders) that should negate SMU's solid defensive line. Take the home team plus the points in this spot!

10*Indianapolis Colts +1.5

The Colts are ranked No. 15 in overall team efficiency, while the Titans are ranked No. 20 at Football Outsiders. The Titans have a -0.4 net yard differential, while the Colts have a 0.0 net yard differential through the first seven weeks. The Colts are really good in same-season revenge games at home. The Titans defeated the Colts 25-16, as 5-point home chalk despite having a -3 turnover differential. It was a 1-point game entering the 4th quarter. Tennessee has won & covered three straight games with an impressive +51 ATS margin. This is a huge letdown spot for a team that has allowed 21 sacks (28th) and will be playing inside a dome for the first time this season. The Titans will be without their top three tackles which makes this play even stronger. The Colts are ranked No. 12 against the run, while the Titans are ranked No. 22 this season. The Colts are 8-2 straight-up in October over the past three seasons and 7-3 ATS at home against the Titans. Take the home dog!

4*North Carolina +4

The Fighting Irish have played the tougher schedule which I respect a great deal. North Carolina has a +1.2 net yards per play differential, while Notre Dame has a -0.1 net yards per play differential this season. That's a massive difference especially in this spot. The big advantage for the Tar Heels is on the offensive line. North Carolina is ranked No. 19, while Notre Dame is ranked No. 97 at Football Outsiders. North Carolina has revenge from last year's loss and two weeks to prepare. ND defeated USC last week despite getting outgained 424-383. Red flag. The Fighting Irish are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS after playing the Trojans of late. I will side the with Tar Heels plus the points in this one! 

3*San Francisco 49ers -4

The Colts want to run the ball to setup play-action. The 49ers strength is their run defense as they have't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 25 consecutive games, the longest active streak in the NFL. San Francisco has two weeks to prepare for a hobbled Colts' team in this prime-time affair. East Coast teams playing in Prime-time (8:00 PM E or later) on the West coast have been a solid play against, as the West Coast teams are 52-29-6 ATS. The Colts defeated Houston 31-3 last week and out-gained the Texans by just a 388-353 mark. The Colts have a huge division game against the Titans next week. Take the hungry host! 

3*Philadelphia Eagles +3

The Eagles have 10 days to prepare coming off Thursday's loss against Tampa Bay. Philadelphia has played the 6th-toughest schedule so far this season. Trap line. You have a 4-2 home team vs. 2-4 road team "only" laying a FG. This line suggests the Eagles and Raiders are just about even on a neutral field. There will be 40% Eagles' fans which adds value to this line. The Raiders were all in last week. I see a major letdown before their BYE week. Las Vegas is 3-9 ATS as a favorite over the past three years. Take the Eagles plus the points!

4*Cincinnati Bengals +6.5

The Bengals scored 6 points combined in losing both meetings last season. The Ravens beat up the Bengals pretty good. Baltimore will be missing numerous key players that made a huge difference last season. The Bengals net yards per play is +0.8, while the Ravens are +0.1 this season. Cincinnati has the 6th-best offensive line, while the Ravens have the 24th-best according to Football Outsiders. The Bengals are ranked No. 2 in opponent net yards per play while the Ravens are ranked No. 21 this season. The Bengals are ranked No. 6 in opponent passer rating while the Ravens are ranked No. 13. Joe Burrow and JaMarr Chase can't be stopped in the 4th quarter so the backdoor will always be open. Take the road dog! 

5*Minnesota -5

Last year, the Golden Gophers blew a 17-point lead at the end of the third quarter. Maryland won 45-44 as 17.5-point home underdogs. Maryland celebrated on the field without any fans. Minnesota was not happy and have circled this game. The Terrapins will be without both starting wide receivers from last year. Jeshaun Jones and Dontay Demus Jr. each had 100+ receiving yards and one TD. Not in this game. Maryland is also without their best linebacker. Minnesota has a solid backup RB to replace Potts who is out of the year.

All the advanced metrics point to the home team covering easily. Maryland is ranked No. 81 in total offense, while Minnesota is ranked No. 46 at Football Outsiders. Maryland is ranked No. 95 in total defense, while Minnesota is ranked No. 40 this season. Maryland is ranked No. 115 in special teams, while the Golden Gophers are ranked No. 43 this season. Minnesota is ranked No. 39 overall, while Maryland is ranked No. 91 this season. Minnesota has played the 26th-toughest schedule. Maryland has played the 48th-toughest. Maryland is 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS after playing Ohio State of late. Maryland is 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS vs. winning teams over the past eight tilts. Lets take the home team in this one!

5*Las Vegas Raiders +4

5*Detroit Lions +3.5

The Lions return to Ford Field for their only home game in a four week span. The Lions are playing hard and will continue to play hard. They love their coach. The Lions will be getting back two key players. Expect WR Tyrell Williams and DE Kevin Strong to be activated after both starters went down with a concussion in week one. The Bengals are coming off an emotional OT loss against the Packers. Teams are just 1-3 SU after playing Green Bay this season. The Bengals' three wins have come against teams with a combined 4-11 record. Take the Lions plus the points and try a slice on the money line!  

4*Oklahoma State +5.5

Seems like a game that the Cowboys have circled on their schedule. Texas defeated OK State 41-34 as 3.5 road underdogs, despite getting outgained 530-287 last season. Oklahoma State had a -4 turnover differential. That loss was followed by four more setbacks as the Cowboys' 2020 season spun out of control. Texas is coming off a disappointing loss against Oklahoma while the Cowboys have two weeks to prepare for this revenge game. Oklahoma State is 6-1 ATS in their past seven road games as underdogs. I'll take the points with the better defense in this one!

5*San Francisco 49ers +5.5

The 49ers have the better offensive and defensive lines at Football Outsiders. San Francisco defeated the Cardinals 20-12 as 6-point road underdogs last December with C. J Beathard under center. The Cardinals have very little film on Trey Lance which is going to be a big factor in this game. Don't forget, the 49ers have played more games in Arizona than normal due to the pandemic. The 49ers outgained Seattle by 200+ yards last week. This is a great spot to take the points in a division game!

4*Cincinnati Bengals +3

This is one of the stronger technical plays in quite some time. Green Bay is favored from name recognition only. The Packers are ranked No. 23 in total defense while the Bengals are ranked No. 5 at Football Outsiders. The Packers are ranked No. 31 in opponent red zone scoring while the Bengals are ranked No. 12. The Packers have played a slightly tougher schedule, but the Bengals are at home with extra time to prepare and get healthy. The Bengals defense is ranked No. 5 (86.5) in opponent passer rating while Green Bay is ranked No. 18 (100.2). The Bengals are ranked No. 4 in special teams while Green Bay is ranked No. 19. The Packers will be missing numerous key personnel on defense which makes these stats even stronger. Joe Burrow's QBR is 53.8. Aaron Rogers' QBR is 55.8. Not much difference. Love winning teams getting points at home with the much better defense. Take the home dog in this upset maker!

4*Utah +3

Utah is allowing 4.1 yards per play while USC is allowing 5.8 yards per play this season. Utah will be playing this revenge game with two weeks to prepare. Utah is 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS after their BYE week of late. Utah is 12-4 SU and 11-5 ATS against the Pac-12 over the past three seasons. Utah is 9-1 SU and 9-1 ATS off a win against a conference rival. USC is just 5-8 ATS in that same role. Bottom line is we're getting 3 points with the better offensive line and better overall defense. Sign me up!

4*Carolina Panthers +5

The Panthers have 10 days to prepare after having won in Texas on Thursday night. Dallas is coming off a division win against a rookie head coach on MNF and now must play on short rest at 1:05 PM E. Dallas is caught in a Philly/Carolina/NYG sandwich. Just seems like a bad spot to me. I have many notes going back to the early 2000's that says fade Dallas at home against winning teams when playing at 1:05 PM E. It's not a start time they are accustomed too. Carolina is ranked No. 1 in third-down defense and No. 11 in third down conversion percentage. You know how intelligent of a head coach I believe Matt Rhule is. He won't get out-coached. Dallas is 1-9 SU in their last 10 games against winning teams. Dallas is 1-6 ATS in their past seven October games. I think we're getting one point of value so lets grab the five points ASAP. 

4*New York Jets +7

The Titans are dealing with numerous injuries up and down the roster. It looks like AJ Brown and Julio Jones will be out. Even if those two play, it won't be at a high level. New York will able to focus on stopping D. Henry. The Jets are coming off a humiliating loss scoring 0 points. Returning home is the key handicap. The Jets have a sneaky good defense especially against the run. The Jets are ranked No. 13 against the run while the Titans are ranked No. 24 at Football Outsiders. Tennessee is only ranked three spots higher in overall team efficiency. The Jets should be able to run the ball on this over-rated Titans' defense. That should open up some nice play-action completions for Wilson and company. The Jets are ranked No. 14 in special teams while Tennessee is ranked No. 27 thru three weeks. Take the Jets in this upset special! 

4*Arizona State +3.5

UCLA defeated the Sun Devils 25-18 last season despite getting outgained 442-363. Arizona State has the pieces to win this game outright. The Sun Devils are allowing 4.1 yards per play while UCLA is allowing 5.3 this season. DTR doesn't look 100% healthy to me. Fresno State is built very similar to Arizona State and the Bulldogs beat UCLA outright as 11-point dogs. The Sun Devils are ranked No. 12 in special teams. Love the coach (Herm Edwards) in revenge games. Arizona State is 5-1 ATS in their past six games as underdogs. Take the road dog!

4*Minnesota Vikings +2

Minnesota returns home and could easily be 2-0 instead of 0-2. The Seahawks defeated the Vikings 27-26 as 6.5-point home chalk last year despite getting outgained 449-314. Minnesota had a 31-18 First down advantage too. After two games, the Vikings are ranked No. 2 in third-down defense while the Seahawks are ranked No. 17. Lastly, the Seahawks played on the road, than at home, now another road game. Teams in this role to begin the season have been a solid play against in game three. Take the hungry host!

5*LA Rams +1.5

Tampa Bay is 2-0 (at home) this season despite getting outgained in both games. The Buccaneers have won 10 straight dating back to last season, scoring 30+ points in nine straight games which is an NFL record. The Rams have a lot of confidence going into this game. They defeated the Bucs 27-24 at Tampa with Goff (376 passing yards) under center last season. LA outgained TB 413-251. Tom Brady was 26-of-48 for 216 yards. Matthew Stafford has a QBR of 78.1 through two games while Tom Brady has a 65 QBR. This will be the Buccaneers first game on Turf in quite some time, not to mention first game outside the Eastern Time Zone. Antonio Brown is OUT, who is a key weapon on the outside and running jet sweeps. Brady and company might be looking ahead to next week's date with the New England Patriots. Take the Rams in this upset maker!

5*Baylor Bears +7

Both teams step up in class this afternoon. I believe Baylor is underrated while the overall market is pretty high on Iowa State. I have this game closer to the opening number of five. Iowa State defeated Baylor 38-31 as 14-point road favorites despite getting outgained 366-362 last season. Two seasons ago, Baylor defeated Iowa State 23-21 as 2.5-point home dogs. Baylor is 12-4 ATS as an underdog in their past 16 games. Finally, Iowa State will be playing the second of back-to-back road games for the first time in well over two years. Take the Bears plus the points. Try a slice on the money line as well.

5*Philadelphia Eagles +3.5

Both teams are coming off week 1 victories in relatively easy fashion. Remember, no NFL team is as good or bad as they looked the previous week. I was more impressed with the Eagles, who used physical play in dominating the Falcons as 3.5-point underdogs. The 49ers allowed the Lions to almost pull off a miracle comeback, while losing two key starters (RB1, CB1) to injury. Detroit had 31 First downs while SF had 21. After week one, Football Outsiders ranks the Eagles' defense eight spots higher over SF. This will be the second straight road game for the 49ers after having played in a dome the week before. The 49ers' defense was on the field for a league-high 84 plays, well above the average. San Francisco is learning a new defense going up against a duel-threat QB. Tough. The Eagles are 8-4 ATS as 3.5 to 9.5 underdogs over the past three seasons. The 49ers are 1-4 ATS vs. the NFC East of late. Lastly, the 49ers have two home games on deck against Green Bay and Seattle respectively. Take the home dog and try a slice on the money line too!

5*Carolina Panthers +3.5

The Saints are coming off a big upset victory against the Green Bay Packers. It was basically a BYE week as the Packers looked disengaged. Green Bay went 1-for-10 converting 3rd downs. This will be a completely different experience for the road team. It has been a crazy week around the Saints, dealing with coaches and one player in Covid-19 protocol. The Saints haven't had a "normal week" of practice since before Hurricane Ida. They are in Texas right now ahead of this game. The Saints will be without their starting Center (E. Mcoy) and backup Center. Tough. Carolina had 6 QB sacks against the Jets. This defense is very fast. Also Out for this game, Marshon Lattimore (CB) and Marcus Davenport (DE) with six more defenders listed questionable. The Saints swept the season series against the Panthers last season. Carolina did cover a 7-point road spread. Matt Rhule and company are taking this game very seriously. Take the generous 3.5 points and the money line (+160) as well!

5*Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5

I think the Las Vegas Raiders are still celebrating that big comeback win on MNF. Very emotional game for the silver and black. I think this Raiders' defense will have their hands full against a pissed off team, full of skill players on the outside. It's a short week for the road team playing at 1:00 PM (10:00 AM Body Clock) against arguably the No. 1 front seven in football. The Raiders are 1-7 ATS after playing on Monday night. According to Marc Lawrence's Playbook, head coach John Gruden is 15-25 ATS in his career off a SU underdog win. Take the hungry host!

5*Fresno State +11

The Bulldogs have a big athletic offensive line and their defense can matchup with good teams in the PAC 12. Fresno State (+19.5) played Oregon down to the wire after the first quarter. The Bulldogs out-gained the Ducks 373-358 in a 7-point road loss. Jake Haener is completing 72.5% of his passes with a QBR of 72.5 for Fresno State. Dorian Thompson-Robinson is completing 52.8% of his throws with a QBR of 66.6 this season. UCLA has their PAC-12 opener at Stanford next week and is coming off a BYE week. Undefeated teams are usually rusty when their BYE week occurs in September. Take the road dog in this spot!

5*Memphis +3.5

This will be Mississippi State's first road game of the season, trying to stop the No. 1 offense in the nation. This seems like a flat spot to me. The Bulldogs play LSU at home next week. The Tigers should have the special teams advantage. The Bulldogs punter (T. Day) is averaging 38.5 yards per punt, which ranks in the bottom third. Memphis has a history of upsetting SEC foes at home. More of the same in this one! 

5*Detroit Lions +7.5

The Detroit Lions have a very good offensive line. They will be able to put some points on the board against a team that's learning a new defense. The 49ers also have a new offensive coordinator. I think Garoppolo and Lance splitting reps doesn't help either. This line is super inflated. Home teams getting 7+ points in week one has been very profitable. Take the home dog!

5*Pittsburgh Steelers +6.5

Wow! The Bills' hype is off the charts right now. They will be good, but lets slow down on all the Josh Allen MVP talk. Mike Tomlin is a master motivator, especially as road underdogs. Pittsburgh is 11-3 ATS in their past 14 games as road underdogs. They are 5-1 ATS as 3.5 to 7.5-point dogs. The Bills defeated the Steelers 26-15 as 2-point home chalk in week 14. That victory cost the Steelers a No. 2 seed last season. The Steelers have been waiting for this game. Love their defense. Take the generous 6.5 points!

5*Arkansas +7

Texas was very impressive in their home opener beating a really solid UL Lafayette team. Arkansas started very slow before imposing their will in the second half against Rice. The Razorbacks were looking ahead to this game. Texas is coming off an emotional win in Steve Sarkisian's debut. This is one of the biggest home games in recent memory for the Razorbacks. Arkansas is 13-4 ATS vs. the Big 12 since 1993. Line seems 1.5 points too high, so lets take the home dog in this one!

4*Texas San Antonio +5.5

Illinois is coming off a big upset win despite getting out-gained 392-326 last week. Texas State went 7-5 SU under first-year head coach Jeff Traylor, scoring 28.2 points per game (67th of 128) while allowing 25.7 (41 of 128). The Roadrunners are one of the most deepest teams with a plethora of returning talent. Illinois is 3-13 ATS as home chalk of 3.5 to 7 points since 1993. Take the road dog!

4*West Virginia -3

Both teams are ranked in the top 20 in returning production. Maryland played just five games last season going 2-3. They need time to evolve. The Terrapins are running a new offense and defensive with two brand new coordinators installing new systems. I will look to back Maryland later in the season. West Virginia is ready to roll in this game. Take the road team!  

4*Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 (+103)

This game will mark the 14th time in Super Bowl history that we'll be getting a rematch from the regular season and if the first 13 games are any indication, the Chiefs could be in for a fight. In Week 12, the Chiefs defeated the Buccaneers 27-24, which is notable, because the team that won the regular season game has gone 6-7 straight-up in the Super Bowl rematch. Check this out! No AFC team has ever beaten an NFC team twice in one season. The Chiefs will be without their two best tackles, which is significant because the Chiefs' offensive line is ranked 14th while Tampa Bay's O'line is ranked 9th at Football Outsiders. Tampa Bay's defensive line is ranked first while the Chiefs' defensive line is ranked 25th. Overall team defense, TB checks in fifth while KC is ranked 22nd. I can't ignore the fact that KC is ranked dead last in red zone defense, by a significant margin. The Chiefs are 6-8 ATS when playing on a grass field while Tampa Bay is 8-4 ATS on that same surface. Tom Brady knows how to win Super Bowls and we're getting 3 to 3.5 points at their home stadium. Take the hungry host!

4*Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 (+102)

The Buccaneers dropped both games against the Saints this season. The first game was relatively close while the second matchup was not. I really believe this helps the Buccaneers maintain a focus like no other in this game. They should learn from it. It's very telling that the line is only 3 points considering how easily the Saints won both games. Tampa Bay had a minus -3 turnover margin in the first game and Tom Brady threw 3 interceptions in game two. The Saints held the Bears to a 10% conversion rate on 3rd down last week. I don't see that happening in this game. Tom Brady should be able to manipulate the Saints' defense especially with very little crowd noise to deal with. The Bucs have a +0.9 net yard differential while the Saints check in at +0.5. The Saints point differential is +9.2 while Tampa Bay checks in at +8.5. Finally, the Saints are ranked 29th in red-zone defense which is the second worst mark of all remaining playoff teams. Take Tampa Bay plus the points risking no juice.

5*Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-103)

I think the Ravens wanted to play the Titans after losing to them earlier this year in overtime (blew a 21-10 3rd quarter lead) and in last year's playoffs. Don't forget, Baltimore outgained Tennessee 530-300 in that playoff game. The Titans also recovered three of their own three fumbles in that 28-12 victory. This is not the same Titans defense. A stop unit that is ranked 29th in total defense and 30th in sacks with just 19. On the flip side, the Ravens are ranked 9th in total defense and 13th in sacks with 39 according to Football Outsiders. Special teams really matters in the postseason. The Ravens are ranked 2nd while Tennessee is ranked 28th. The Ravens net yard differential is +0.7 while Tennessee's is +0.3. The Titans pass defense is allowing 7.0 pass yards per attempt which ranks dead last of all the playoff teams. Baltimore is ranked 2nd in third-down defense while Tennessee is ranked 32nd.

The Titans have played 7 games in 7 weeks, with Derrick Henry receiving a huge workload, to the tune of 34 carries and 250 rushing yards last week to surpass 2000 for the season. Tennessee never really had a normal BYE week due to Covid-19. The Ravens are a bit more fresh having played just 6 games in 7 weeks. The Titans went 1-3 SU since week eight when facing QB's with a QBR of 70 or above at the start of the game. Baltimore's point differential is +10.3 while the Titans are +3.2. I think this line should be 4.5 to 5. The Titans have cluster injuries on their offensive line with Saffold, Wilson, Sambralio, and Lewan likely out. I will swallow 3.5 points and take the better team with the hungry Ravens.

3*LA Rams +3 (+103)

The Rams will start John Wolford at QB and he's got some running ability. The Cardinals are ranked 30th in defending mobile QB's this season. That have no game tape on him. Advantage Rams. Wolford has been in McVay's system for two years and Aaron Donald thinks he will play well after seeing his preparation and practice every day for over two years. The Rams are ranked 4th in third-down defense and 2nd in opponent passer rating. The Rams are ranked 2nd in penalties committed while the Cardinals are ranked 32nd. The Rams are 3-1 SU after two or more consecutive losses under McVay and they lost their last home game to the Jets as 17-point chalk. Arizona is 1-4 ATS against winning teams this season. I have herd rumblings that Kyler Murray and the head coach (Kingsbury) are butting heads. I'll take the points with the Rams in what amounts to a playoff game.

5*NC State +2.5

The Wolfpack have a lot of seniors and this team is very excited for this opportunity. NC State owns the better stats, and they are ranked much higher in overall team efficiency at Football Outsiders. In fact, the Wildcats are allowing more yards than they gain. Red flag. Kentucky's four wins have come against teams that are a combined 8-31. NC State is 7-3 SU and 7-3 ATS on grass fields while Kentucky is 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS on that same surface this season. The Wolfpack have significant edges in the kicking game and red zone efficiency. Take the points in this upset maker!

5*Army +7.5

The Black Knights are seeking their third straight 10-win season in the Liberty Bowl. Army's offensive line is ranked 52nd while West Virginia's O'line is ranked 113th at Football Outsiders. On defense, Army is ranked 2nd overall. They also own the fifth-best defensive line in all of College Football. That's a great combo to have in a bowl game. There is a 75% chance for moderate to heavy rain which favors the team that runs the ball at a high level. West Virginia is ranked 120th in penalties (8.4 per game) while Army is ranked 24th (4.8) this season. The Mountaineers are 7-15 SU and 5-17 ATS in all bowl games since 1993. Army is a nifty 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS in all bowl games. Take the points and try a slice on the money line as well.

5*Oklahoma +3

The Sooners have a Top 10 defensive line and the better overall defense. This line is too high. Oklahoma's passer rating against is ranked 20th while the Gators' passer rating against is ranked 93rd. This has been a strong angle in these Power 5 bowl games of late. Florida will be without All-American TE Kyle Pitts and his 700+ yards receiving with 12 TD's. There is also a lot of chatter that more Gators will be skipping this game. The Sooners lost their Bowl game 63-28 to LSU last season. Look for them to be pumped-up in what should amount to a home game. Take Oklahoma +3 and try a slice on the money line. (+150)  

10*Green Bay Packers -3

The Titans have scored 30+ points in five straight games and now must play their 4th road game in six weeks. The Titans have won and covered two in a row defeating cupcakes Detroit and Jacksonville. They now take a huge jump up in class. The Packers are motivated wanting a first round BYE and Green Bay scored just 3 points in the second half of last week's win over Carolina. Green Bay is ranked 9th in sacks (38) while Tennessee is ranked 32nd with just 14 QB take downs. Aaron Rodgers should be able to move the ball fairly easy against a not so good Titans' secondary. The Packers are ranked 18th in total defense while Tennessee is ranked 28th at Football Outsiders. Green Bay is ranked 10th in 3rd-down defense while Tennessee is ranked 32nd. The Titans are ranked 29th in special teams and will have to play with a 50% chance of snow showers in the forecast. Ryan Tannehill has a passer rating of 44 in games when the kick-off temp is below 40 degrees. The Titans converted 81.8% on 3rd down last week. These teams are fade bait the very next week especially against a quality opponent. The Packers are 19-9 SU and 16-9 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1993. I love the cheese heads in this one!

4*Denver Broncos +6

The Buffalo Bills have covered the spread in five straight games, including last Sunday's (night) thrilling win over the previously undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers. They have a big division game on deck against New England. The Broncos are a sneaky good team ranking #1 in red-zone defense. Drew Lock is coming off his best performance of his career throwing 4 TD's at Carolina. I think he can ride that momentum into this contest. The Bills have played just three games on grass this season going 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS. The Broncos are 6-3 ATS on that same surface and 7-2 ATS against the AFC. Take the home dog!

4*Oregon +3.5

USC is coming off an emotional comeback victory against cross-town rival UCLA. The Trojans were outgained by 105 yards. I love playing on College football underdogs with the significantly better offensive line. Oregon's offensive line is ranked 31 while USC is ranked 105 by Football Outsiders. Oregon is averaging 7.3 yards per play while USC is averaging 5.8 this season. On defense, the Ducks are allowing 5.7 yards per play while USC allows 5.8. That means Oregon has a +1.6 yards per play while USC is even. The Trojans are likely to be without their top running back (knee injury) and they have trouble gaining yards on the ground to begin with. The Ducks are 5-0 SU after a BYE week over the past three seasons. Take the road dog in this upset maker!

4*LA Chargers +2.5

The Falcons are coming off a revenge game against New Orleans having played them two weeks prior. Atlanta's next three games are against Tampa Bay, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay again. Seems like a flat spot especially since the LA Chargers are coming off their worse loss (45-0) in franchise history. The Falcons committed just one penalty last week. I don't see that happening again. The Falcons' defense was on the field for 75 plays against New Orleans. They now must fly out of the Eastern time zone for the first time since October 19th. Atlanta likes to throw the ball a lot which is LAC's strength. The Chargers are ranked 6th, allowing 214.4 passing yards per game. On the flip side, the Falcons are ranked 30th, allowing 285 passing yards per game. The Chargers are ranked 13th in red-zone defense while Atlanta is ranked 30th in that same category. The Chargers are allowing 5.5 yards per play (15th) on defense while the Falcons are allowing 6.2 (tied for last). I would expect a much better effort for the home team from what we witnessed against the Patriots. Take the points!  

5*Cleveland Browns +6

The Titans are coming off an emotional revenge blowout win against the Colts. They were all in having lost two weeks prior. To show you how focused the Titans were last week check this out. Tennessee is ranked 16th in opponent yards per rush (4.3), however last week they allowed just 2.7 yards per rush against a solid rushing and well-coached team. The Browns are ranked 19th in team defense while the Titans are ranked 28th at Football Outsiders. The Titans are ranked 29th in QB sacks (14) while the Browns are ranked 12th in sacks (27) this season. Tennessee is ranked #32 in third-down defense. A big reason why they are just 2-5 ATS as a favorite this season. The Titans have eight wins and the combined record of those eight teams is 40-47. Finally, last season in week 1 the Titans put a whipping on Cleveland 43-13 as 5.5-point road underdogs. Tennessee covered the spread by 35.5 points. The Browns actually outgained Tennessee 346-339. Baker Mayfield had 3 interceptions. The Browns have a much better coach and scheme this season. Take the road dog in this revenge spot!

5*Arkansas +3.5

Arkansas has two weeks to prepare for this revenge game after dropping a 10-point decision last season. This year, the Razorbacks have a real QB. Feleipe Franks is completing 68% of his passes with a 17-4 TD to interception ratio. Missouri is coming off a 41-0 shellacking against Vanderbilt. The Tigers committed just 1 penalty for the entire game. That won't happen again. Missouri is 4-5 ATS after two or more consecutive SU wins since 2018. Arkansas is 3-1 ATS L4 off a loss against a conference rival. Missouri is 4-12 SU and 3-13 ATS in December games since 1993. Arkansas has the better offensive line ranking #69 while the Tigers are ranked #105 at Football Outsiders. Arkansas has a +0.6 yard differential while Missouri is just +0.1. Overall, the Razorbacks are ranked 48th while Missouri is ranked 67th at FO. This will be the Razorbacks last regular season game of the year while Missouri plays Vanderbilt again next week. Take the road dog!

4*San Francisco 49ers +7

The 49ers have two weeks to prepare against a division rival while the Rams will be playing on a short week after an upset win on MNF. A lot of bettors will take the Rams saying they have revenge. I'm not. Kyle Shanahan is a really good coach and has been great as an underdog in the division. I think this line is too high in my opinion. Should be closer to 5.5 points. Don't forget, the 49ers are ranked 7th in third-down defense which is key in covering spreads. San Francisco has some Covid concerns but will get some talented players back as well. Take the points!

4*Atlanta Falcons +5

The Falcons are very familiar with Jameis Winston at the QB position after spending his entire career with Tampa Bay. I always like getting points with the more efficient QB. Matt Ryan is ranked #6 in QBR (78.1) this season. Atlanta has two weeks to prepare for this division game. Jameis Winston is 7-14-1 ATS as a favorite of any kind. The Saints defeated SF 27-13 last week while getting outgained by 44 yards. SF also had a 21-17 edge in first downs. The 49ers committed 4 turnovers otherwise it would have been a different result. Atlanta is ranked 8th in third-down defense while the Saints are ranked 22nd. Lets take the points in this upset maker. 

4*Central Florida +6

This will only be Cincinnati's second road game of the season as they've been at home for the past three games. It's 30 degrees warmer in Orlando, FL than Cincinnati, Ohio. UCF will be pumped-up for sure knowing the Bearcats are 7-0 (against mostly weak competition) so far this season. The Knights dropped a 27-24 decision despite outgaining Cincinnati 423-341 last season. The Knights offensive line is ranked #36 while the Bearcats are ranked #76 at Football Outsiders. I see lots of value with the home underdog. UCF is 23-1 SU at home since 2017. Take the hungry host!

5*LA Rams -1

Two weeks ago, the Rams lost to the Dolphins 28-17 despite outgaining the fish by 326 yards. The Rams have allowed just 10 sacks while Seattle has allowed 24 sacks. The Rams are ranked #1 in opponent yards per play (4.7) while Seattle is ranked #28 (6.2) this season. The Rams are ranked 3rd in third-down defense while Seattle checks in at #24. The Rams are ranked 10th in third-down offense while Seattle is ranked 30th, which is quite surprising. LAR has outgained the Seahawks in the past six meetings going 4-2 SU during that span. The Rams are ranked #5 (84.2) in passer rating against while Seattle is ranked #23 (98.2). Seattle is not the same on offense without Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde. Both are out again. They also have an injury list longer than my recent CVS receipt. In this division game, take the home team with the far superior defense and two weeks to prepare. 

5*Arizona Cardinals -1.5

Arizona dropped a tough one last week 34-31 despite outgaining the Dolphins by 130 yards. The Cardinals have scored 30+ points in four straight games. Buffalo is coming off its biggest win of the season and must now travel out of the Eastern time zone for the first time since October 13th. The Bills also lost two key offensive lineman in that big win. The Cardinals own the better offensive and defensive lines at Football Outsiders. Arizona is ranked 7th in third-down defense while the Bills are ranked 23rd. The Cardinals are ranked 10th in passer rating against while the Bills are ranked 20th. Arizona is ranked 10th in total defense while the Bills are ranked 17th at Football Outsiders. I like the Cardinals to bounce back at home against a Bills' team off an emotional victory. 

5*Tulsa Golden Hurricane -2.5

The Golden Hurricane have been waiting for this game. Last year, SMU won 43-37 despite getting outgained 500-440. Tulsa committed 5 turnovers. SMU committed zero. SMU has played a lot of cupcakes this season. Tulsa will be a stiffer test as they have the 23rd best defense at Football Outsiders. SMU is ranked 67th. Tulsa is 4-1 ATS after a BYE week of late. SMU is 3-10 ATS off a win against a conference rival. SMU is 4-11 SU & 4-11 ATS as a road dog of 3 points or less since 1993. Lets swallow the 2.5 points and take the home team! 

4*Arizona Cardinals -4.5

The Dolphins are coming off a phony victory against the Rams. LA outgained Miami 471-145 and had 31 first downs compared to just 8 for the Dolphins. The Rams ran 92 plays and Miami must face an offense ranked 3rd in yards per game (424.6). Arizona likes to run an up-tempo offense. Tough spot for the Dolphins defense. Tua needs more time (reps) and his first road start against a rested well-prepared team does not bode well. The Cardinals are 7-3 SU in their past 10 games dating back to last season. This squad seems to be on a mission right now. Both teams are in the top 5 in third down defense, however Arizona is ranked 13th in third down offense, while Miami checks in at 29th. The Dolphins' offensive line and defensive line are both ranked 30th at Football Outsiders. Miami is 3-10 SU in games played on artificial/field turf of late. Lay it!

4*Arizona State +12

This game is being played at 9:00 AM local time. Crazy. I think this will be a closer game than the spread suggests. Arizona State has a solid foundation and this team has lost by more than 11 points only once under Herm Edwards. The forecast calls for rain and wind. That should help the underdog as well. Take the points!

4*West Virginia +6.5

Texas is coming off that 41-34 win against Oklahoma State last week despite getting outgained by 243 yards. West Virginia is allowing 4.2 yards per play while Texas is allowing 5.1 yards per play. On offense, WV averages 5.8 yards per play while Texas gains 5.9 yards per play. I think this WV team is one of their best in quite some time. Last season, Texas beat the Mountaineers 42-31 despite getting outgained 463-435. Texas has a huge revenge game against Kansas on deck. This should be a one possession game so I'm taking the points! 

5*Denver Broncos +3 (+105)

The Broncos are coming off an embarrassing setback at the hands of the KC Chiefs. I believe the 43 points were the most allowed by a team coached (Head, Defense) by Vic Fangio. Also, draw a line in Drew Lock's performance as he's never played well in the snow. It will be a much nicer day in Denver with temps in the low 60s. Actually, the Broncos outgained KC  411-286, but committed 4 turnovers. Denver ran 76 plays while the Chiefs ran just 51. Denver's defense should be relatively fresh. The Broncos are ranked 4th in third down defense in all of football. The Chargers ran 77 plays on offense in beating Jacksonville and now must play a pissed off Broncos team at high altitude. Tough. Finally, The Broncos have a passer rating against of 78.2 while the Chargers have a passer rating against of 100.1. Take the Broncos plus the generous 3 points with plus juice.  

4*Auburn Tigers +2.5

Auburn lost to LSU last season by just 3 points. J. Burrow and C. Edwards-Helaire had huge games. Obviously, those players are in the NFL and LSU will be without QB Miles Brennan. Auburn's defense which is allowing 5.3 yards per play gets to face a true freshman QB. LSU is allowing a whopping 6.8 yards per play this season. I like the Tigers plus the points in this spot.

10*Carolina Panthers +7.5

Carolina is coming off a loss despite outgaining Chicago by 42 yards. Carolina is averaging 6.0 yards per play while the Saints are averaging 5.5 yards per play. On defense, Carolina is allowing 5.5 yards per play while New Orleans is allowing 5.2 yards per play. The Saints swept the Panthers last season, although Carolina did cover a 7-point spread rather easily in New Orleans. That was "back in the day" when stadiums would be packed with fans. This game will have no fans and this spread is way too high. I have it at 6 so we are getting 1.5 points of value. Carolina has a really good coaching staff on both sides of the ball. The new scheme on offense with Mike Davis at RB has been confusing opponents. Here's what I really like about this matchup and current line. Carolina's defense is holding opposing QB's to a 86.2 passer rating which ranks 6th. On the flip side, New Orleans is allowing a 108.2 passer rating against which ranks 29th. Carolina is 4-1 ATS in the past five meeting. New Orleans is 1-5 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points over the past three years. Finally, Teddy Bridgewater is 19-2 ATS as an underdog in his career, including 3-0 ATS this season. 

5*Indiana U +6.5

The Hoosiers return 17 starters and insiders believe its their best team in quite some time. In 2018 and 2019, Indiana lost by just 5 & 7 points respectively. The Hoosiers outgained Penn State 462-371 in Happy Valley last year. The Nittany Lions have a home game against Ohio State on deck. Take the hungry host! 

5*Tampa Bay Buccaneers +101 (money line)

The Packers are 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS so far this season. I think having their BYE week at this point is not beneficial. Keep in mind, players and coaches aren't allowed to leave the city where the team is located during the off week, as they must provide daily specimens for Covid-19 testing. Aaron Rodgers was quoted as being "pissed off" that he could not return home. Tampa Bay's defense is ranked No. 2 while Green Bay is ranked 29th at Football Outsiders. The Bucs are allowing 4.9 yards per play while Green Bay is allowing 6.1 yards per play this season. Tampa Bay has 10 days to prepare after playing last Thursday while outgaining Chicago 339-243. Green Bay not really accustomed to playing in hot and humid weather. Take the home dog! Check out the full quote below.

''Totally sucks,'' the 36-year-old Rodgers said after the Packers' Monday night victory over the Atlanta Falcons. ''That's all I can say about that. Obviously it is what it is, the situation. But especially as a older player, I look forward to the bye weeks immensely. I look forward to kind of a reset, recharging the batteries.''

10*Mississippi State +6.5

Mississippi State returns home after a blowout loss in which they scored just two points. It was very misleading as they outgained Kentucky by 138 yards, but committed 6 turnovers. Mississippi State has outgained all three foes by a combined 470 yards this season. Texas A&M is coming off their first home win over a Top 5 ranked team since 2002. The Bulldogs are +1.2 in net yard differential while the Aggies are -0.1. Mississippi State is allowing 4.0 yards per play which ranks 5th in the nation. Texas A&M is allowing a whopping 6.6 yards per play. Mike Leach called out his team for that sloppy performance last week. The Aggies beat Mississippi State 49-30 last year while outgaining the Bulldogs by just 8 yards. The difference was a -3 turnover ratio for Mississippi State. Texas A&M defeated Vanderbilt by only 5 points as 31-point chalk earlier this season. Take the Bulldogs in this upset maker!

5*Jacksonville Jaguars +6.5

I would normally look to play on teams that just fired their head coach. Most of the time those teams are underdogs. I don't think this Houston team is happy about the change. Romeo Crennel is 28-55 SU as a head coach in his career. The Jaguars have the better offensive and defensive lines according to Football Outsiders. I'm taking the points with the road team.

5*Syracuse +2.5

My power rating in this game has the home team as 1-point chalk. I think the Orange have the better offense and defense. Don't forget Syracuse defeated Duke last year by a wide margin as 9-point road underdogs. No revenge here. I think Syracuse is the smart side in this one!

5*Miami Dolphins +7

The Dolphins will have 10 days to prepare after playing last Thursday. Seattle is coming off two emotional prime-time victories and now must travel East for the second time this season. The Seahawks have been outgained in every game this season despite winning three one-possession games. Seattle has a long injury list to key players. They won't be 100% even if they play in the heat and humidity that is South Florida. Seattle is 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS so far this season. Playing against these teams in week four would make you a lot of money. Russell Wilson has a QBR of 86.2. Ryan Fitzpatrick has a QBR of 81. Take the Dolphins plus the points in this upset maker!

4*Carolina Panthers +6.5

The Panthers are hungry for a win knowing they have dropped 10 straight games dating back to last season. Carolina played well in last week's setback outgaining TB 427-339. Four turnovers did not help. Teams usually are fired-up in the very next game after a star player (Christian Mccaffrey) gets hurt. The best handicap is the fact LAC just played an emotional OT game against a division rival. The Chargers ran 79 plays on offense while the defense allowed KC to run 70 plays. Tough. Head coach Anthony Lynn said "Justin Herbert was the backup for a reason". I would expect some growing pains in this game. Sure seems like a letdown spot to me. To back that up, the Chargers are 1-4-0 ATS in games after playing the KC Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes under center (2017-2019). Last year, they played in week 17 which explains only 5 games with no pushes. Take the Panthers plus the points in this upset maker!

3*New York Giants +4

I like the Giants at home even without RB Barkley. I actually think their offense will be better for at least one game. The 49ers have numerous injuries including QB Jimmy G. Backup Nick Mullins has not had much practice time. Take the home dog!

4*Miami Dolphins +6

The Dolphins return home after allowing 217 rushing yards against the Patriots with a minus -3 turnover differential. Still, it was a 3-point game in the 4th quarter. This team is well-coached and I would expect a much better effort. Buffalo defeated Miami in both games last season and should be pumped-up at home. Speaking of home, the Bills will have to play in the heat & humidity that is South Florida, with an expected heat index of 100-104 throughout the game. This will be a factor because the Bills ran a league-high 81 plays on offense last week against the Jets, while possessing the ball for 41:17. Both those numbers are insanely high. There is also a 55% chance of thunderstorms. Take the Dolphins plus the points!

5*Arizona Cardinals +7

The 49ers are a tad overrated in my opinion while the Cardinals are a tad underrated. Arizona looks improved on both sides of the ball with the addition of WR DeAndre Hopkins and LB Isaiah Simmons all over the field. San Francisco has to deal with the Super Bowl loser hangover. Tough. They are really "nicked" up to start the season with a long injury list. This is another division underdog in week one that looks solid.

4*Washington Football Team +6

Washington should be improved on defense with Ron Rivera taking over. This team sports 5 first-round picks on the D-line. In week one, you want to take NFL underdogs that missed the playoffs against playoff teams from the previous year. It's one of the best angles in all of sports! Also, I like playing division dogs in the opening week. Take Washington plus the points.

4*Kansas City Chiefs-120 (money line)

The Kansas City Chiefs have been consistently good over the last five seasons with a combined record of 57-23. The San Francisco 49ers went 4-12 last season and 6-10 two years ago. It's simply not their time yet. Check this out. San Francisco has a net point differential of +8.4 on the road while Kansas City has a +11.8 point differential on the road. Last season, the 49ers were -5.7 and the Chiefs were +8.7. The teams that the 49ers' defense struggled against was Baltimore and Seattle. Two mobile QB's with a basic passing game. The Chiefs have a complex passing game and with two weeks to prepare you can expect some new wrinkles from Andy Reid and company. Andy is 18-3 SU off a BYE in the regular season. The Chiefs have allowed just 25 sacks (tied 3rd) this season while the 49ers have allowed 36 (15th). The addition of Terrell Suggs has done wonders as the Chiefs' run and pass defense has improved 4 spots since he arrived. The Chiefs are going to stack the box with run suffers. I don't think the Jimmy G. can keep up. He only attempted 8 passes against Green Bay. Patrick Mahomes QBR is 76.4 (2nd). Jimmy G. QBR is 58.8 (12th). The 49ers can't win this game without numerous chunk passing plays. The Chiefs come in hot winning six in a row. Make it 7!

5*Clemson +6.5

This feels like a lot of points to me considering the look ahead line was a near pick em. Also, consider the fact that Clemson has the much better defense allowing just 4.2 yards per play. LSU is allowing 5.1 yards per play. I'll take the generous 6.5 points with a stud QB and tremendous head coach. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the past six Championship games and this is the longest time between the semi finals and Championship in playoff format history.

4*Seattle Seahawks +4.5

The Packers have the better stats in offensive and defensive line play, but it's hard to ignore the fact in QBR comparison. QBR is a percentage so 50 would be average. Russell Wilson's QBR is 69.8 (6th) while Aaron Rodgers is 50.8 (20th) this season. It's been quite some time that any QB with a QBR of less than 55 in the regular season has reached the conference finals. Seattle is ranked two spots higher in overall team efficiency at Football Outsiders. I think this will be a very close game so I'm taking the points.

5*Buffalo Bills +3

The Texans are allowing 6.3 yards per play on defense while the Bills are allowing 5.1 yards per play. The league average is 5.7 this season. Teams that allow over 6.0 are usually one and done in the playoffs. Buffalo has a net yards per play differential of +0.3 while Houston has a -0.3 net yards per play differential. Buffalo's offensive line is ranked 16th while Houston's offensive line is ranked 22nd at Football Outsiders. Defensive line, Buffalo is ranked 12th while Houston is ranked 22nd. Team defense, Buffalo is ranked 6th while Houston is ranked 22nd. Buffalo is ranked 13th in overall team efficiency while Houston is ranked 19th. JJ Watt might return. That's okay. He's not 100% returning from an injury that normally takes 3-4 months to recover. Huge coaching edge to the road team. Buffalo 5-2 ATS as an underdog this season. Houston went 1-6 ATS when installed as the favorite. I like the Bills plus the points!

10*Tennessee Volunteers -1.5

The Volunteers, who have won five in a row and six of the last seven games, is on a roll heading into the Gator Bowl and should receive a boost from a partisan crowd in Jacksonville. Tennessee's defense allowed no more than 20 points during that five-game winning streak. The Vols (.589) played a much tougher schedule than the Hoosiers (.434) this season. Indiana went 0-4 SU while losing the stats in three of the four games against other bowl teams. They were outgained by an average of -98 yards. Tennessee went 3-5 SU and 4-4 in the stats against fellow bowlers. They were outgained by -34 yards, which is pretty good considering the very tough schedule (10th toughest among bowl teams) they endured. Love the fact that Tennessee has played 10 games on a grass field going 5-5 SU. Indiana has played just 3 games on a grass field going 1-2 SU this season. The Vols' offensive line is ranked 68th while Indiana's O'line is ranked 97th at Football Outsiders. Tennessee is ranked 22nd in special teams while the Hoosiers are ranked 41st. Tennessee has a -0.3 net yards per play differential while Indiana has a -1.6 net yards per play differential against other bowl teams. This is a huge edge to the Vols and a system of mine that has worked very well in the past. Finally, Tennessee is 7-2 SU against the Big 10 since 1993. Indiana is 1-6 SU when playing on a neutral field since 1993. Max play on the Vols!

5*Oregon +3

Don't sleep on this Ducks' defense as they held 6 foes to season-low or 2nd-low yards this season. Teams almost played the exact same strength of schedule (Oregon .573 vs Wisconsin .572) this season. Oregon's defensive line is ranked 27th while Wisconsin's defensive line is ranked 48th at Football Outsiders. Special teams edge to the Ducks as they are ranked 17 spots higher (36 vs 53). This will be Justin Herbert's final game before getting drafted this Spring. Love it. I believe this team wants to send him out as a winner. I like the Ducks plus the points in this one!

5*Western Michigan +3.5

The Broncos should be extremely motivated after losing their bowl game last season by 31 points. Western Michigan has a +0.7 net yards per play differential while Western Kentucky has a +0.3 net yards per play differential. Western Michigan lost their last game of the Season by a FG despite outgaining Northern Illinois 348-250. The Broncos are 4-0 ITS (in the stats) while WM went 2-2 ITS down the stretch. I love playing on Bowl underdogs that average 200+ yards rushing & 200+ passing yards. First-year head coaches tend to struggle as a favorite in bowl games. Finally, WK is 4-12 ATS as a favorite in their past 16 games. Take the points with Western Michigan.

5*Iowa -2

The Hawkeyes boast the better offensive and defensive lines. Iowa also owns the much better defense and special teams. I am pleasantly surprised this line is under a FG. Iowa ranks 5th in Red Zone offense and they are ranked 4th in fewest penalty yards. Usc allows more points (30) than they score (28) against other Bowl teams. Red flag. Take Iowa in the Holiday Bowl!

5*Temple Owls +5

North Carolina has played 9 one-possession games this season. The Tar Heels went 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS vs. other Bowl teams this season. The Owls are playing in a bowl game for the fifth straight season and are playing in the Military Bowl for the third time overall. They most recently played in the Military Bowl in 2016 when they were upended by Wake Forest, and they also lost to UCLA here in 2009 when it was known as the EagleBank Bowl. The Owls are extremely motivated to get a win for the senior class. Temple went 3-1 SU down the stretch while outgaining all four teams. Temple's only setback was against Cincinnati by 2 points. The Owls are ranked 4th in red zone defense. Temple is ranked 30th in team defense while North Carolina is ranked 61st at Football Outsiders this season. Temple went 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS after a BYE week while NC went 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS this season. Take the points with the much better defense in this one!

5*Arizona Cardinals +10

The Seahawks have played a lot of one-possession games this season. The one game they did win by margin was at Arizona. The Cardinals are a feisty team with a sneaky good offense. They are ranked #12 in team offense at Football Outsiders. Arizona is 8-4 ATS as underdogs this season. Seattle is 3-6 ATS in the final four weeks of the regular season of late. Love the fact that Seattle plays San Francisco next week. Also, the Seahawks are really "nicked up". That injury report is long on some very key players. Arizona should be motivated to perform well for their head coach as the season wines down. I think this line should be closer to 8 points. Great value on the road dog!

4*New York Jets +3 (+110)

I'm taking the points with the much better QB. The Jets are getting two key players back (Williams & Adams) and should be motivated in their last home game. The Steelers play Baltimore next week. The Jets have 10 days to prepare after playing last Thursday. I like the home team in this one!

5*Arizona Cardinals +3

This is a tough spot for the road team. The Cleveland Browns are coming off back-to-back division games and they play Baltimore Ravens at home next week. The Cleveland Browns defeated the Bengals last week 27-19 despite getting outgained 451-333. Cleveland allowed 179 rushing yards and will now have to face an offense that likes to run a lot with a mobile QB. K. Murray QBR is 59.6 (11th). B. Mayfield QBR is 51.8 (19th). I don't think the Browns have the discipline on defense to stop Arizona from scoring in their last home game of the season. Take the hungry host!

5*Denver Broncos +10

The Chiefs are coming off a big win against New England despite only scoring three points in the 2nd half. Patrick Mahomes hurt his hand and while he will play, look for the Chiefs to be a bit more conservative. I love division dogs with same-season revenge getting 10 or more points. Great value on the road team!