Oklahoma State Cowboys.

OM Play.

Game 403.

4:30 PM PST/7:30 PM EST.

On my two different sets of power ratings, I have Oklahoma -3 on one and Oklahoma State -1.5 on the other. Either way the odds makers are giving the Sooners way too much credit in this game and once again is overvaluing them. I mean let’s be honest, this is a team that’s only covered once since mid-September and they are an overall 3-7 against the spread this season. Brett Venables defense has a bigger hole in it than the one left by that iceberg in the Titanic. They are allowing just shy of 30-points per game, ranking among the worst in the nation against the rush, and are almost just as bad against the pass. This does not bode well as they are facing one of the most explosive and well-balanced offenses in the conference. Oklahoma State accounts for 34.9-points per game. And you can expect quarterback Spencer Sanders (check status) to most likely play here. Last week he did not start. But did come in and lead the Cowboys to a victory. Oklahoma State needs this win as they are in a deadlock for third place in the Big 12 with Baylor and Texas at 4-3 in conference play. They’re sitting just behind Kansas State, which is at 5-2. If he plays, I do expect the 20th ranked aerial assault of the Cowboys to absolutely dissect the very weak Sooners pass defense. Either way whether it is Sanders or one of his able backups, the receiving corps is stacked with talent and will light up the scoreboard here. Understand that this is one of the oldest and most heated rivalries in college football. OSU is going to want their best at the helm. And either way the Oklahoma defense is so poor it has resulted in the Sooners offense being overworked. The Cowboys are 10-2 ATS the last 12 on the road, 13-4-1 ATS the last18 versus conference opponents, and 5-0 ATS the last five on grass. Take Oklahoma State. Thank you.

Tennessee Volunteers.

BEST BET.

Game 327.

4:00 PM PST/7:00 PM EST.

With a victory this week sports fans, Tennessee can secure a 10-win season for the first time in over 15 years. But more importantly guys, the fifth-ranked Volunteers are right outside the College Football Playoff bubble. The Bulldogs, Buckeyes, Wolverines, and Horned Frogs are all ranked in front of them. And are all undefeated. As we all know anything could happen at the end of the college football regular season and this year more than ever teams need to impress the pollsters by running up scores and keeping the foot on the gas. If last weeks 66-24 thumping of Missouri will be any sign of what Tennessee is going to do this week to South Carolina, laying this type of wood isn’t going to be a problem. Last October, the Volunteers took down the Gamecocks 45-20 to give them their third consecutive win and their fourth consecutive cover in this rivalry. I’ve got to tell you guys; UT is much better on both side of the ball this season than a season ago. They are ranked number one in the country in scoring, averaging over 47.4-points per game as they are equally strong on the ground as well as in the air. Granted, South Carolina is pretty good against the pass, but they rank 113th nationally against the run. And this is where UT will do most of their damage and eventually open up their passing game. Let’s face it, we all know the Gamecocks are handicapped offensively (LOL). Not only do they only score 28.6-points per game, but they also commit a lot of turnovers. This doesn’t bode well when you’re dealing with a very nasty Vols “D”. There is no way South Carolina is going to be able to move the chains here, let alone get into the endzone. I look for Tennessee to really put their stamp on the season, let the posters know that their loss against Georgia was just that… a loss against the top team in the country. And I look for them to keep their name in the College Football Playoff picture. The Volunteers are 8-2-1 ATS the last 11 at the Gamecocks, 4-1 ATS the last five versus conference opponents, and 5-1 ATS the last six overall. This is a team that’s already covered lines of 37, 47.5, 38.5, and 18.5 this 

Iowa Hawkeyes.

CONSENSUS MOVE.

Game 367.

1:00 PM PST/4:00 PM EST.

My friends, Iowa has a chance, nay an excellent chance to face either Ohio State or Michigan for the Big 10 championship in a few weeks. I’m going to save you the roadmap of how this can happen. But take my word for it, it can happen. Outside of contests against the Wolverines and the Buckeyes, this team has held every single opponent this season to 13-points or less. They rank 10th in the nation stopping the pass. Now Minnesota has no passing game whatsoever. The Golden Gophers solely rely upon the run. And the Hawkeyes possess the nations seventh ranked run defense. While Minnesota’s defense ranks in the top-five as well, they have been exploited several times this season. And when they face aggressive defenses, they tend to fold like a cheap suit offensively. Case in point, they put up 10 against Purdue, 14 against Illinois, and 17 against Penn State. All of which were both straight up and against the spread losses. Granted, the Iowa offense leaves a lot to be desired. But their defense gets opponents offenses off the field so quickly, eventually their offense can wear defenses down from overwork and fatigue. They’ve held their last three opponents to a total of 16-points. They have dominated this rivalry, winning nine of the last 10 straight up and eight of the last 10 against the spread. I look for this team to not just win big here this week, but also get a win next week against Nebraska, and eventually face either Michigan or Ohio State in the conference title game. Take the Hawkeyes. Thank you.

Kansas State Wildcats.

NO LIMIT.

Game 321.

11:00 AM PST/2:00 PM EST.

For several years West Virginia had Kansas State’s number. However, a season ago the worm had turned as the Wildcats downed the Mountaineers 34-17. Well, this season K State is a much stronger team and WV is absolutely horrible. The Wildcats own an explosive offensive unit accounting for over 30.6-points per game behind the nation’s 15th ranked rushing attack. They will own the time of possession, control the clock and the tempo, and dominate one of the worst defenses in the conference, let alone in college football. That’s right, the West Virginia stop-unit (if you can call it that) ranks 116th, yielding over 32.8-points per game. They are equally bad against the rush as they are against the pass. Because their defense is so poor, their offense is starting to look tired. Three of their last four outings, they have put up just 10, 14, and 23-points. In the Big 12 that’s pretty bad. The Wildcats possess one of the most ferocious defenses in the nation, yielding a mere 17.5-points per game. On both sides of the ball, Kansas State severely outclasses West Virginia guys. With a victory here and one next week against Kansas, K State would ensure themselves a chance at TCU in the conference title game. The favorite has covered four the last five meetings. The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS the last six versus teams with a winning record, 5-2 ATS the last seven on field turf, 11-5 ATS the last 16 in November, and 7-3-1 ATS the last 11 overall. Take Kansas State. Thank you.

Tennessee Titans.

Game 311.

5:15 PM PST/8:15 PM EST.

Very quietly the Tennessee Titans have covered seven consecutive contests, winning six of those seven outings straight up. Keep in mind they didn’t have Ryan Tannehill under center for a few of those games. The quarterback returned to lead this team from a 10–0 deficit to a 17-10 victory last week against the Denver Broncos. Granted, the Green Bay Packers did end a five-game losing streak themselves by rallying from a 28-14 deficit to force overtime and take a 31-28 decision over the Dallas Cowboys last week. But pump the brakes on that game my friends. I think we can all agree that Cowboys head coach, Mike McCarthy may have contributed to that. His decision making all season once again has been suspect. But in that specific game, I believe he caused Dallas to lose. Now we know that Aaron Rodgers’ numbers have fallen significantly this season. A lot of people are saying it’s because his receiving core is gone or injured. That is true. But at the same token, he can’t make plays like he used to. So, the Packers offense is leaning heavily on the running game. But this week they have to face the NFL’s second-ranked rush defense in the Titans. Tennessee only allows 85.1 yards per game on the ground this season. They will have some success in the air here. But overall, I think quarterback in real trouble. I don’t see this offense lighting up the scoreboard here. Let’s remember they only account for 18.5-points per game to begin with. On the flipside, Tennessee is going to give Green Bay a heavy dose of Derrick Henry on the ground. Especially because this is a place where Green Bay has gotten steamrolled defensively, ranking 26th and allowing over 140.6 yards per game to the rush. Green Bay has dropped three straight the season laying points at home. They are not reliable as chalk even if it is in Lambeau Field. Tennessee is 4-0 ATS the last four games played on the road, 5-0 ATS the last five games played versus teams with a losing record, and 5-0 ATS the last five games played on grass. Take the Titans. Thank you.

Gonzaga Bulldogs on the moneyline.

Game 701.

6:30 PM PST/9:30 PM EST.

In one of the most exciting matchups thus far this short college basketball campaign, we see the number two and number 11 teams in the nation face one another. The Bulldogs have won and covered all four meetings in this series. But in the most recent matchup, one year ago, they devoured the Longhorns 86-74. Both teams are off to 2-0 starts. Texas took down UTEP and Houston Christian to begin the campaign. Meanwhile Gonzaga had a warm-up beating North Florida then on aircraft carrier five days ago, they bested Michigan State. Yes, it was a close game. But the Gonzaga defense looked strong. They held MSU to 40.4% shooting from the field and 3-of-16 from downtown. Not only that, but they outmuscled the Spartans with a 40-32 advantage on the glass. And on 37 available shots they only yielded nine offensive boards. So, if you’re worried about the fact that Texas is a little physical, don’t be. The Longhorns are a good team. But I don’t feel that the Bulldogs are going to give up a loss this early in the campaign and drop in the rankings. The Longhorns have some solid talent in Hunter, Rice, and Carr. However, they are primarily a team that relies upon their back court. The Bulldogs are strong both upfront and in their back court. There superstar Drew Timme is a big physical, forward. Texas lacks that big strong presence. Their biggest guys are 6’8” maybe 6’9” and only 220 lbs. Gonzaga’s smallest forward is 225 pounds. And the entire front court is 6’8” or taller. They have one “small” forward who is just 6’7”. This is a big strong team that could beat you both inside and out. We know how good they are from beyond the arc. But this is a squad that can also outmuscle you. Texas is 2-5 ATS the last seven at home and 2-8 ATS the last 10 overall. Gonzaga is 8-2-1 ATS the last 11 on the road, and 7-1-1 the last line road games versus teams with a winning home record. Take the Bulldogs. Thank you.

Utah Jazz.

Las Vegas Strip Move Play.

Game 550.

7:00 PM PST/10:00 PM EST.

Following a few of their big names departing for other teams, many didn’t expect the Utah Jazz to be very competitive this season. Well, they are currently sitting at 10-5 and playing excellent basketball. Getting them off a loss in Philadelphia a few nights ago in which Joel Embiid had one of the best nights a player has had so far this NBA campaign, and having them return home to Salt Lake where they are perfect 5-0 straight up this season, compels us to side with the Jazz. By the way they have covered four of the five at Vivint Arena. The New York Knicks are off a very rough stretch in which they play five road games out West in seven nights. They dropped a game at home on Monday to the Oklahoma City Thunder. That was their sixth straight up loss over the last nine outings. And the seventh time they failed cover in those same nine outings. On both sides of the court, they are significantly our class. While they are relatively healthy, Utah is one of the few teams currently in the NBA that are listening absolutely no injured players. The Jazz have won and covered the last three meetings in this series all quite easily. By the way, the Knicks are 0-4 ATS the last four meetings in Utah. Take Utah. Thank you.

Ohio Bobcats.

MAC GOW.

Game 303.

4:00 PM PST/7:00 PM EST.

For Ohio, which stands at 5-1 in Mac East action this season, to ensure themselves a shot at Toledo in Detroit on December 3, they must win. This team is playing red-hot. They have won five in a row and six of their last seven straight up. And are riding a six-game against the spread cover streak. They have had their way with Ball State, winning and covering the last three meetings. With a victory this evening along with Toledo taking down Bowling Green tonight as well, they will be facing the Rockets at Ford field for the conference title. This team is ranked second in scoring and in scoring defense in MAC play this season. The Cardinals are last than scoring in MAC contests. While the Bobcats will dissect the Cardinals in the air, that won’t be the case for the Ball State offense. Their quarterback, Paddock makes a lot of mistakes, as he has tossed 16 touchdowns against 11 interceptions. They have a monster running back in Steele. But being they are one-dimensional; I see the Ohio defense keying on the BSU running attack. This is a short number and I believe they will not just win, but they will win with authority to ensure themselves a shot at the conference title. They are 6-0 ATS the last six games played against conference opponents. Meanwhile the Cardinals are 1-5 ATS the last six games played versus teams with a winning record. Take Ohio. Thank you.

Washington Commanders.

Game 265.

5:15 PM PST/8:15 PM EST.

My friends, the Philadelphia Eagles certainly deserve all their accolades. I mean let’s face it, we are just past halfway through the season, and they are sitting at 8-0. They are a good football team. But I do feel that the odds makers are overvaluing them, especially here on Monday Night. Making them more than double-digit favorites against a very game division opponent like the Washington Commanders is a mistake. Washington enters this match up winning three of their last four straight up and are just a half-point away from covering all four of those outings. This is a team that’s getting better as the season progresses. They’re not as flashy and they don’t have as many big names on this team as the Eagles, but this team can play football. No, their offense isn’t breaking any records. But their defense is pretty darn good. And head coach Ron Rivera has them believing they can win. You know Philadelphia as I mentioned is a very good football team. But I think a little bit of luck and good situations have helped them a little bit to stay undefeated. I feel there’s a lot of pressure on this team to win at this point. However, Washington does not have any pressure on them. Every victory they get is just a bonus for them at this point. And the fact that they are 4-5 right now they still have a chance of making the playoffs. I just feel the Eagles come in here a little overconfident. And I believe is in a huge letdown mode. You know they haven’t played the strongest opponents yet this season. Outside of one or two games, most of their matchups have been against subpar teams. The Commanders are 8-3-2 ATS the last 13 games on grass, 5-0-1 ATS the last six games in November, and 3-0-1 ATS the last four games overall. Take Washington. Thank you.

Dallas Cowboys.

NFC GAME OF THE WEEK.

Game 261.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST.

Without question, Aaron Rodgers is a first ballot Hall of Famer. Also, without question he is one of the most successful quarterbacks of this generation. What is questionable is the fact that some think the Green Bay Packers can turn things around the season. Well sports fans, we are more than halfway through the regular season and they are just 3-6 both straight up and against the spread. They have dropped five in a row straight up and five of the last six against the number. The offense ranks 27th, accounting for a dismal 17.1-points per game. Yes, the defense has been more than adequate. They rank second against the pass and only allow 20.9-points per game. But they are tired and overworked. There was a high-hopes for this team as a true NFC competitor. They took a season-opening loss at Minnesota. Then they followed that up with three straight up victories. But since October 2, the Packers have failed to win a single contest. There once explosive offense has mustered just 15.8-points per game during their current slide. Because of this, their fatigued stop-unit is starting to spring leaks. I am well aware of the fact that they have taken three in a row against the Cowboys, both straight up and against the spread. But these aren’t the same two squads that have met in recent years. Dallas comes into this matchup winning six of their last seven, both straight up and against the spread. And had an extra week to rest, heal, and prepare. The Cowboys offense is adequate. But what makes them so good is they make so few mistakes. It has been their defense that has very quietly been one of the league’s best, holding opponents to just 16.6-points per game, ranking third in that category, fourth in passing yards allowed, 10th in total yards allowed, and fifth in takeaways, snagging 14 turnovers. This is particularly a place where the Packers have struggled, committing 13 turnovers thus far. The road team has covered the last four meetings in this NFC rivalry. Meanwhile the Cowboys are 6-1 ATS the last seven games played on the road, 19-7 ATS the last 26 games played versus NFC opponents, and 22-8 ATS the last 30 games played overall. The Packers are 1-4 ATS the last five games played at home, 2-6 ATS the last eight games played versus the NFC, and 1-5 ATS the last six games played overall. Take Dallas. Thank you.

Indianapolis Colts.

AFC GOW.

Game 257.

1:05 PM PST/4:05 PM EST.

Sports fans, it’s not an often occurrence that a team gets a second-chance during the regular season. I’m here to tell you the Indianapolis Colts have just that, a second-chance this season. This is a team which has had their offensive line break down, affecting their running game, and even a change at the quarterback position. And most recently, the firing of their head coach. However interim head coach former center, Jeff Saturday is very well-liked by the front office, the fans, and most importantly, the players. He will bring a fresh new look, attitude, and optimism to this team this week. And what better opponent the face than the struggling Las Vegas Raiders. My friends I know the Raiders team very well. I live here in southern Nevada. I know the coaching staff. I know the players. I even watch practices. This team is not a very good team. Their head coach is one of the worst I have seen in recent memory making in-game decisions. And their quarterback is absolutely horrible. Guys this is not Fresno State. And Carr is not a big-game NFL quarterback. They enter this weeks matchup losing and failing to cover the last two games against teams that on paper, they were better than. Listen, the rumor mill around Vegas is there is a lot of dissension in the locker room. And things are going to get worse for this team before they even show a glimpse of getting better. As of this post, Sam Ehlinger is to remain the starting quarterback for Indy. And I believe he will have huge success in the year against the 26th-ranked pass defense of Vegas. On the flipside, please understand that the Colts possess a very strong, well-balanced defense. They rank 13th in the league allowing just 20.3-points per game. They rank sixth against the pass, 11th against the rush, and 5th overall in yards allowed. While the Raiders do have talent. I’m not gonna’ argue that. They just can’t get their act together. And forget about the quicksand factor. If anything goes wrong with this team during the game, things get significantly worse thereafter. They just don’t have real leadership, a smart coach, or a quarterback that can take them down the field with authority. The road team has covered four consecutive meetings in this series. Indianapolis is 18-7-1 ATS the last 26 road games versus teams with a losing home record. And guys Las Vegas is just 1-5 ATS the last six games played in November. They tend to fold like a cheap suit later on in the season. Take Indianapolis. Thank you.

Buffalo Bills.

NO LIMIT GOM.

Game 254.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

My friends, let’s face it the line in the Vikings/Bills matchup should be closer to eight or nine-points. It is this low due to the fact that we are uncertain as to the status of Josh Allen as of this point. If he goes, this line will skyrocket. If he doesn’t, then it looks like backup quarterback Case Keenum will be at the helm. And people are all nervous about this. With all respect, I could step up and take the helm and guide this team to victory. They rank third in the league in scoring, lighting up scoreboards for over 27.5-points per game. Now they do own the third-ranked passing attack in the NFL. Even if Allen does not go and Keenum is under center, please remember he is a 10-year veteran of the NFL. And he has put up some solid numbers on a couple of different teams. He has a receiving corps so good and so deep that trust me when I tell you, he can put up good numbers in the air here. But overall let’s not forget the fact that this team is one of the better rushing teams in the league. So, they can crutch on their ground game to open up the passing game. And that is all moot because they own the top-ranked defense in the NFL. They have been shutting down offenses all season long, allowing just 14.8-points per game. I mean they rank in the top-10 in every single defensive category. Now let’s talk about the Minnesota Vikings. In my opinion they are the luckiest team in the NFL. They are certainly not nearly as good as their 7-1 record. I think they’ve gotten darn lucky folks. I mean they needed the final two-minutes to beat the Commanders by just three-points, they beat Kyler Murray after he admittedly spent the night before without sleep playing Call of Duty (true story), they beat the Dolphins with a  third-string quarterback, they beat the Bears by seven when they were really struggling, they needed a missed field goal to beat Andy Dalton and the Saints, they did beat the Lions, which are own one of the worst defenses in the league, they lost to the Eagles badly and beat the what now we have come to realize, a very overrated Packers. Like I said, they’re a very lucky team. No matter what they do offensively, they have to line up against a ferocious defense that knows they may have to compensate for a backup quarterback on offense. Plus, guys this team is horrible at defending the pass. As I said if Josh Allen plays this line is going to soar. And he’s gonna’ light them up in the air. And if he doesn’t, Case Keenum is good enough to light them up too. No, he’s not is flashy as Allen or as successful, but in this system against this pass defense, he could put up some good numbers. To add insult to injury, the Bills come off their first loss since September. And they are 6-1-2 ATS the last nine following a straight up loss, 5-1-1 ATS the last seven at home, and 11-4-1 the last 16 in the month of November. Take Buffalo no matter who is at the helm here. But get it in early just in case Allen does start on this line skyrockets. Take the Bills. Thank you.

New York Giants.

89% Angle.

Game 246.

10:00 AM PST 1:00 PM EST.

My friends, the New York Giants are not pretty, they’re not flashy, and heck they’re not a very exciting football team. But what they are is successful this season. This is a team that was touted to be the poorest in the NFC East. But nearly halfway through the regular season, they are tied for second place at 6-2. What is astounding to me is the fact the 1-6-1 Houston Texans are only a 4.5-point underdog here. New York comes off a bye week following their first loss since September. It was also their first no cover since September. Look for them to bounce back strong here as they will steamroll the worst rush defense in the NFL with their fourth-ranked rushing offense. Let’s face it, Houston is just horrible. Offensively, defensively, their numbers are dismal. But as far as their offense goes, they rank 28th in scoring averaging a laughable 16.6-points per game. They have to line up against a New York Giants stop-unit, ranking ninth in the NFL, yielding just 19.6-points per game. The Giants had two weeks to stew over their first loss in quite a while, rest, heal, and prepare for this next contest. I look for them to not just come out here win and cover, but make a true statement. Going back a way, New York has won and covered four straight in this series. They are also 19-8-1 ATS the last 28 versus teams with a losing record, 7-2 ATS the last nine in November, and 4-1 ATS the last five overall. They may not do it pretty, but they do, do it. Take New York. Thank you.

TCU Horned Frogs.

OM.

Game 199.

4:30 PM PST/9:30 PM EST.

With just two more games remaining after this week contests, the undefeated 9-0 TCU Horn Frogs must keep their foot on the gas here. They have a two-game lead in the Big 12 over Baylor, Texas, and Kansas State. Next week they have the Bears. But this week they have the Longhorns. You know sports fans everyone is waiting for a shoe to drop with TCU. Not going to happen. They have played excellent football all season long. Not only do they have a perfect record straight up, they are 7-1-1 against the spread and just 3.5-points away from being a perfect 9-0 against the number this season. They face a Texas team winning four of their last five straight up. And returning home after playing the last two games on the road. The odds makers are truly overvaluing The Longhorns here. First of all, the Horned Frogs have covered six of the last eight meetings in this rivalry. Winning six of the last eight meetings straight up as well. Just looking at the last two matchups, they were decided by a combined seven-points. These two teams play each other very tough. Both offenses have monster rushing attacks, led by powerful ball-carriers. Both are also pretty darn good at stopping the rush. But the big difference in this matchup is going to be two things; first the mismatch between the Horned Frogs passing unit and the Longhorns pass defense. And secondly, turnovers. There is no questioning that TCU quarterback Max Duggan (2,407 yards passing, 66% completion rate, 24 TDs, two INTs) is far and away a better quarterback than Texas play-caller, Quinn Ewers (1,336 yards passing, 57.8% completion rate, 13 TDs, five INTs). Duggan is not only an outstanding leader and gunslinger; he doesn’t make any mistakes. Ewers does. I certainly see the Horned Frogs passing attack having much more success than the Longhorns here. Especially due to the fact that the Texas pass defense ranks 105th. The other item I mentioned earlier was turnovers. TCU does not turn the ball over. However, their stop-unit does create a lot of turnovers. Not only do the Horned Frogs need to keep their foot on the gas to ensure themselves a conference title, but they need to win this game to stay undefeated and stay in the top-four for a College Football Playoff spot. Texas is 4-9ATS the last 13 games played against conference opponents. Take the touchdown plus with TCU. Thank you.

Baylor Bears on the moneyline.

Vegas Insider Move GOM.

Game 182.

4:00 PM PST/7:00 PM EST.

TCU comes in to Week 11 with a two-game lead atop the Big 12 at 6-0. Baylor, Kansas State, and Texas are all right behind them, tied at 4-2. However, the Bears are riding a three-game win streak and do control their own destiny in reaching the conference title game. That’s right, over the last several weeks they’ve taken down Kansas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma, covering all three contests. Kansas State on the other hand has struggled recently, dropping two of their last three straight up and only covering one of their last four. The Bears have taken the last four meetings in this series straight up, covering two of the four, including last season’s 20-10 win and cover. On both sides of the ball, the Bears significantly outclass the Wildcats. They rank 14th nationally in scoring, averaging 38.3-points per game, behind a very well-balanced offense. They will have no problems moving the chains on the ground here with their 18th-ranked rushing attack, steamrolling Kansas States 74th-ranked run defense. Offensively, the Wildcats own one of the poorest units in the conference passing the ball. No surprise there because they are a true force on the ground. However, the Bears are extremely strong at stuffing the run. Not only that, but they have forced 11 turnovers already this season. Kansas State quarterback Adrian Martinez is their offense, And the Baylor “D“ has faced and contained better QBs already this season. The Bears are 9-2 ATS the last 11 games at home, 23-9 ATS the last 32 games following a straight up win, and 16-6 ATS the last 22 overall games. Take Baylor. Thank you.

Illinois Fighting Illini.

BIG TEN GOM.

Game 174.

9:00 AM PST/12:00 PM EST.

Brett Bielema has reared the Illinois defense into a true force. They rank first nationally in yards allowed, takeaways, and points allowed, second in passing yards allowed, and fourth in rushing yards allowed. This is a unit that yields just 10.4-points per game, yielding a mere 235.2 yards per game. They’ve already snagged 16 takeaways. They have held every single opponent this season to 23-points or less, holding five offenses to single-digits. In this conference that is just astounding. This doesn’t bode too well for Purdue. They score enough points, for sure. However, they rank 98th in rushing. This tells you they solely rely on the pass. And once again the Fighting Illini pass defense ranks second nationally, yielding just 152.6 yards per game. The Boilermakers have won five of the last six meetings in this series straight up. But have failed to cover the last three. I’m here to tell you folks that these are two very different squads this season than in previous seasons. Believe me the worm has turned. Illinois running back Chase Brown leads the nation with 1,344 yards rushing. He eats up a ton of clock, keeping defenses honest and eventually wearing them down. More importantly, because the Fighting Illini dominate the time of possession, they keep their own defense fresh and rested. This team sits in first place in the Big Ten West at 4-2 in conference play. They need victories folks. Iowa, Wisconsin, Purdue, and Minnesota are all sitting just behind them at 3-3. Let’s not forget the Boilermakers have dropped their last two straight up and their last three against the number. Illinois comes in here a bit angry losing their last outing to the Michigan State 23-15 as a 16.5-point favorite. Look for them to bounce back here as they are 6-0-1 ATS the last seven games played following a straight up loss, 8-1-1 ATS the last 10 games played versus teams a winning record, and 9-3 ATS the last 12 games played overall. Take the Fighting Illini. Thank you.

Dallas Mavericks.

Fast Break.

Game 557.

4:10 PM PST/7:10 PM EST.

The Dallas Mavericks were running hot, winning four ina row prior to last nights loss in Orlando. Not only was it a loss, but it was the first time this season that Luka Dončić was held under 30 points. You can expect the Mavs to come back here with a vengeance and redeem themselves as the star forward will light up the scoreboard. They will exploit the Washington Wizards on both sides of the court. Without question, both offensively and defensively Dallas is far superior. The Wizards have a problem scoring points this season, ranking 29th and accounting for just 107.0-points per game. They’re also absolutely horrible on the offensive glass. And one of the worst in the league from beyond the arc. These are each areas Dallas ranks in the top-five defensively. I just don’t feel the Wizards can keep pace offensively against the stifling Mavericks defense. Dallas is 41-18-1 ATS the last 60 games following a straight up loss and 7-3 ATS the last 10 meetings in Washington. Washington is 5-21-1 ATS the last 27 following a straight up win and 1-4-1 ATS the last six at home. Take the Mavericks. Thank you.

Phoenix Suns on the moneyline.

Las Vegas Strip Move.

Game 547.

5:10 PM PST/8:10 PM EST.

There is no doubting that the Phoenix Suns are an outstanding basketball team. They currently have a 1.5-game lead over the Los Angeles Clippers in the Pacific division. And overall, in the West they are tied with the Portland Trailblazers and the Denver Nuggets for the second-best record in the conference. They come off a loss here. Let me rephrase that, they come an embarrassing loss in Philadelphia two nights ago in which they scored a season-low 88-points. I expect this team to bounce back here with a vengeance and take their frustrations out on the struggling Minnesota Timberwolves team that they have dominated. The Suns have won five in a row straight up over the Timberwolves, going 4-1 against the spread. This includes a November 1st, 116-107 win and cover in Phoenix. Minnesota is on a 1-4 game slide both straight up and against the number. While they have a pretty decent offense, they must face one of the toughest defenses in the NBA. That’s right, Phoenix ranks second in points allowed, yielding just 103.5-points per game. When the Suns have the ball, there will be no problem for them scoring at will against a T-wolves “D” that has been getting steamrolled. Minnesota is 4-10 ATS the last 14 home games and just 1-1-5 ATS the last seven meetings at home against Phoenix. Phoenix is 7-3 ATS as the last 10 following a straight up loss. Take the Suns. Thank you.

Buffalo Bulls.

Touchdown.

Game 109.

4:00 PM PST/7:00 PM EST.

The Buffalo Bulls are a very good football team. They are currently tied for second place in the MAC East division with the Bowling Green Falcons at 4-1. Overall, they are 5-4 on the campaign. They need another one to become bowl-eligible. And today they will get that win. Buffalo was on a five-game win streak both straight up and against the spread prior to a November 1 loss at Ohio. The Bobcats are currently the top team in the division, riding a five-game win streak themselves. I expect the Bulls to come in here, bounce back, and redeem themselves, earning a bowl bid. They play a Central Michigan Chippewas squad which is due for a letdown this week following a 35-22 outright win and cover at the Northern Illinois Huskies a week ago. That came following a 1-4 straight up run and an 0-4 ATS slide. I expect the Chippewas to come back down to Earth here. Both offensively and defensively, Buffalo outclasses Central Michigan. I also look for their, defense which has grabbed nine takeaways already the season, to create some turnovers against the 131st ranked CMU turnover offense. That’s right, Central Michigan has committed 16 turnovers this season. The Bulls have won and covered each of the last two meetings in this series by 10 and 23-points. They are also are 4-1-1 ATS the last six road games, 4-1 ATS the last five conference games, and 5-1-1 ATS the last seven overall games. The Chippewas are 0-3-1 ATS the last four home games, 1-4 ATS the last five conference games, and 1-4 ATS the last five overall games. Take Buffalo. Thank you.

Ohio Bobcats on the moneyline.

MAC Game of the Week.

Game 103.

4:00 PM PST/7:00 PM EST.

Ohio needs to keep their foot on the gas and get a big victory here tonight. They share the MAC East divisions top-spot with Buffalo and Bowling Green at 4-1, while the MAC West has Toledo also at 4-1. All of these teams are playing between tonight and tomorrow night. They need a win here this evening so they can maintain a top-spot in the division. The Bobcats are playing some great football winning five of the last six straight up and their last five in a row against the spread. Look for quarterback Kurtis Rourke to further pad has stellar statistics of 2,725 yards passing on a 68.5% completion rate, with 21 TDs and only four INT‘s. He leads the nations 13th-ranked passing attack. They will line up against the 89th-ranked pass defense of the RedHawks here. While overall Miami-Oh has a good defense, they have been absolutely decimated in the air this season. Speaking of the RedHawks, they possess some of the worst statistics in college football on offense. They can’t pass the ball at all. And they account for only 19.4 points per game. This is a team that is just 4-5 overall, which includes a 2-3 conference record. Ohio is 5-0 ATS the last five conference games, 4-0 ATS the last four versus teams with a losing record, and 5-0 ATS the last five on field turf. Miami-Ohio is 2-5-1 ATS the last eight following a bye week, 3-7 ATS the last 10 following a straight up win, and 1-4 ATS the last five versus teams with a winning record. Take the Bobcats. Thank you.

Cleveland Cavaliers.

SLAM DUNK.

Game 529.

7:40 PM PST/10:40 PM EST.

Guys, I honestly don’t know in what alternative universe this line should be just two-points. Cleveland is one of the best teams in the NBA at 8-1 straight up. And more importantly for our purposes, 8-1 against the spread. They have covered four straight road games during their eight-game win streak. Meanwhile Los Angeles it’s just 1-3 at the Crypto.com Arena straight up. And have failed to cover all four at home in the 2022 campaign. They currently rank 30th in the league offensively, averaging just a 102.3 points per game. They must face the third ranked Cavaliers defense yielding just 103.9 points per game. Not only that, but Cleveland also ranks second in the NBA on the defensive glass. L.A. won’t get too many second-chance shots here. When the Cavaliers have the ball, they must deal with a very formidable Clippers defense. However, being that they’re so strong defensively, I feel this will help them in transition. And they will light up the scoreboard. I mean let’s face it, they already average nearly 14-points per game more than Los Angeles. Cleveland took the last two meetings both straight up and against the spread. Los Angeles owns absolutely deplorable ATS numbers going 1-6 ATS the last seven versus teams with a winning percentage above .600, 1-5 ATS the last six following an ATS loss, and 2-7 ATS the last nine overall. Take the Cavaliers. Thank you.

Baltimore Ravens.

MNF WINNER.

Game 473.

5:15 PM PST/8: PM EST.

There are a few certainties in the NFL. One such certainty is if the Baltimore Ravens start winning, watch out they’re gonna’ continue to win. This is a team that has won consecutive games for the first time in the 2022 campaign. Behind Lamar Jackson, they own the fifth-ranked scoring unit in the NFL, averaging over 26=points per game. And once again, their defense is extremely strong, allowing just 22.9-points per game. One word that can certainly describe the New Orleans Saints is “inconsistent.“ Overall, their numbers are decent offensively. However, I don’t see them moving the ball with any success on the ground against one of the toughest rush defenses in the league. And if they can’t move the ball on the ground, they will have trouble in the air. Since mid-September, this team has mustard just two victories. There’s a reason for that. They’re not a very good team. While there is talent on the Saints, there’s no true leadership and as I mentioned, they lack of consistency. While their offense can score some points, when facing aggressive defenses, they seem to sputter. And there’s no debate that prior to last weeks blanking of Las Vegas, New Orleans defense has been a doormat. They rank 28th in the NFL, allowing over 25-points per game. They are also 1-4 ATS the last five following a straight up win, 0-4 ATS the last four at home versus teams with a winning road record, and 0-4 ATS the last four on Monday Night Football. Take Baltimore. Thank you.

Tennessee Titans.

AFC GOW.

Game 471.

5:20 PM PST/8:20 PM EST.

My friends, I’m not looking to ruffle any feathers here. I know the Kansas City Chiefs are one of the best teams in the NFL. But who the heck are they to be laying this type of wood against the Tennessee Titans? I get it, the Titans are having some quarterback issues. But no matter who is under center, the Tennessee offense is not a passing offense. This is a team that has accumulated a 5-2 straight up record, and for our purposes also a 5-2 ATS record, with the 31st ranked passing attack. So, I’m not going to let the odds makers trap me into thinking that if Tannehill can’t go and it’s Willis, that the Titans aren’t still the play here. This is a team that relies upon the rush. I know the Chiefs are good against defending the run. But they have yet to face a ground attack like the caliber of this one. Not only will Tennessee give them a heavy dose of Derrick Henry, who by the way is going to play sports fans, not only will they get a heavy dose of Henry, but Tennessee will also have the luxury of eating up a lot of clock, keeping the Chiefs defense on the field. Let’s not forget, no matter who is at the helm, KC ranks 30th in the league defending the pass. Defensively, I know the Titans are going to give up some yardage in the air to Patrick Mahomes. But I doubt that the Chiefs are going to have any success on the ground here at all against one of the stingiest run defenses in the league. The Titans have won five of the last six meetings in this series, both straight up and against the spread. This includes last years, 27-3 drubbing. They have also covered five straight coming into this matchup, are 4-0 ATS the last four versus the AFC, 5-2 ATS the last seven on grass, and 12-4 ATS the last 16 road games versus teams with a winning home record. Just in case you’re keeping count, the Chiefs are 0-4 ATS the last four following a straight up win, 0-5 ATS the last five versus AFC opponents, and 0-4 ATS the last four in Arrowhead. Take Tennessee folks. Thank you.

Cincinnati Bengals.

No Limit.

Game 464.

10:00 AM PST 1:00 PM EST.

Following a 4-1 straight up run, in which Cincinnati covered all five games, last week in Cleveland they were humiliated, 32-13. I look for them to bounce back strong here as on both sides of the ball they are significantly stronger than Carolina. It’s no secret the Panthers are one of the worst teams in the NFL. And after last weeks 37-34 near miss in overtime in Atlanta, I just feel this team is going to throw the white flag up on the season this week. As of this point, the Carolina starting quarterback has not been determined. But whether it’s Walker, Donald, or Mayfield, they are going to have to line up against a Cincinnati defense that did not allow a second-half touchdown prior to Monday. They will come here angry and looking for redemption. When the Bengals have the ball, their sixth-ranked passing offense will dissect one of the worst pass defenses in the league. And things will go better from bad to worse the Carolina here as they will be without starting safety, Justion Burris and have a banged-up cornerback Donte Jackson in the secondary. The Panthers are 1–6 ATS the last seven on the road, 0-4 ATS the last four versus teams with the winning record, 2-9 ATS the last 11 following a straight up loss, and 5-17 ATS the last 22 overall. The Bengals are 6-1 ATS the last seven at home, 4-1 ATS the lats four following a SU loss, 7-3 ATS the last 10 at home versus teams with a losing road record, and 13-3 ATS the last 16 overall. Take the Bengals. Thank you.

Hawaii.

LATE BAIL OUT.

Game 375.

7:30 PM PST/10:30 PM EST.

Guys, I’m not saying Hawaii is going to win this game. I’m not even saying they’re a very good team. But what I am saying is that they cover ball games. This is a team that is on the 5-1 ATS run. And mind you they have played some very good teams and covered against them; Michigan, San Diego State, Nevada, Colorado State, and Wyoming. Some of the big-name teams they have covered against during their exceptional ATS hot streak. I also don’t understand why in the world Fresno State is laying this type of wood. They happen to be point spread poison, covering just two games since November of last year. That is right my friends, they are on a 2-7 ATS slide. I understand the Rainbow Warriors have a very porous defense. They are absolutely horrible at stopping the rush. And they give up a lot of points. However, the Bulldogs can’t run the ball at all, as their only strength offensively, is in the air. Well, Hawaii counters with the 38th ranked pass defense in the nation. When they have the ball, granted their offense leaves a lot to be desired. But so does the Fresno State defense. I just don’t see the Bulldogs covering about four touchdowns here. The road team has covered 12 of the last 17 meetings, while the underdog has covered seven of the last nine matchups. The Rainbow Warriors are 6-0 ATS the last six conference games, 5-0 ATS the last five games following a straight up loss, 4–1 ATS the last five road games, and 6-0 ATS the last six games on field turf. Take Hawaii. Thank you.

Kansas State.

Consensus.

Game 358.

4:00 PM PST/7:00 PM EST.

On paper, Texas and Kansas State look to be evenly matched. But college football isn’t played on paper. It’s played on the gridiron. And I’m here to tell you that although the Longhorns have dominated this series over recent years, this is a much better and far superior Wildcats team. Texas does have a solid running back in Bijan Robinson. But Kansas State has one of the most well-balanced defenses in the conference. They allow just 17.3 points per game. And come in to this match up with an enormous amount of confidence coming off the 48-0 drubbing of Oklahoma State last week. By the way if you are keeping tabs, the Cowboys defeated the Longhorns just a few weeks ago. K State has their own star running back in Deuce Vaughn. He is a monster ball-carrier that has the luxury of having a better supporting cast. The Wildcats starting quarterback has yet to be named. However, in my opinion whether it is Adrian Martinez or Will Howard, it won’t make too much of a difference. Both are savvy, experienced QBs. And both are much more talented and consistent than their counterpart, Quinn Ewers. The Longhorns are 3-9 ATS the last 12 conference games, 1-5 ATS to list six road games, 1-6 ATS the last seven meetings in Kansas State, and 4-10-1 ATS the last 15 overall meetings with Kansas State. Take the Wildcats. Thank you.

Baylor.

BIG 12 GOM.

Game 359.

12:00 PM PST/3:00 PM EST.

There is no doubt in my mind that the odds makers are looking to trap you in this game. Oklahoma is point spread poison, covering only twice since the beginning of September. On both sides of the ball, they are overmatched, outgunned, and outclassed in this contest. Baylor enters this game possessing one of the most well-balanced scoring offenses in the nation. They are equally good on the ground as they are in the air, accounting for over 38.4 points per game. As you may or may not know, the Sooners possess one of the worst defenses, not just in the conference, but in the nation. They are allowing just short of 30 points per game and rank 114th in total yards allowed and 113th in rushing yards allowed. Oh, by the way they also rank 90th in passing yards allowed. This doesn’t bode well against the explosive Bears offense. Defensively, Baylor can counter the Oklahoma rushing attack with one of the stingiest and nastiest run defenses in the land. They have also covered the last four meetings in the series. And took the last years matchup 27-14. Once again, the Sooners are overvalued. If you go back to the last 11 meetings in Oklahoma, the Bears have covered nine of the those 11. And this is the best Baylor team we’ve seen in years. Take Baylor. Thank you.

North Carolina.

ACC GOM.

Game 323.

9:00 AM PST/12:00 PM EST.

Here’s an ACC matchup between the only undefeated team in the Coastal Division and one of the most disappointing teams in the entire conference this season. Yes, folks were talking North Carolina/Virginia. On one hand you’ve got a Tar Heels team at 7-1 straight up this season, covering five of their last seven. On the other hand, you’ve got a Virginia team that has dropped four of their last five straight up. And are a mere 3-6 ATS going back to last November. You know, the writing was on the wall a season ago with this team. It really was. I know they got an outright win at Georgia Tech a few weeks ago. And went to the wire with Miami last week. But Virginia is just horrible. Their offensive numbers of some of the worst in the nation. As a matter fact, they rank 123rd in scoring, averaging a dismal 16.9 points per game. I understand the North Carolina defense leaves a lot to be desired. However, their offense is so strong, so explosive, and so well-balanced, they keep defenses on the field and opponents’ offenses off of it. Let’s face it, they rank seventh in the country in scoring, averaging nearly 42 points per game. They are top-10 in total yardage, passing yardage, and they have a monster ground attack as well. By the way, they also don’t turn the ball over too much either. That’s certainly been a problem for the Cavaliers offense, as they have coughed up the ball 10 times. Because of the poor play of Brennan Armstrong, there’s some rumors that he’s playing with an injured ankle. Reports is still that he’s going to play anyway this week guys. I really don’t think it matters who is at the helm as this team is just as bad in the air as they are on the ground. The Tar Heels have a couple of key defenders that will miss this game, FYI. But once again as I said earlier, their offense is so strong and so well-balanced, they will control the clock and light up the scoreboard here. There is no way Virginia can keep pace with them offensively. If you recall, a season ago when Brennan Armstrong was having his breakout campaign, the Tar Heels still bested the Cavaliers 59-39. This game will get ugly folks believe me. Virginia is just 1-5 ATS the last six played at Scott stadium. Take North Carolina and take your bookmaker’s money. Thank you.

Milwaukee Bucks.

Slam Dunk.

Game 547.

7:10 PM PST/1010 PM EST.

The Milwaukee Bucks are the only undefeated team left in the NBA. And trust me when I tell you they will not let the Minnesota Timberwolves stand in their way of staying perfect. Not only has Milwaukee been winning, they’ve been getting us bettors paid, going 6-1 ATS. On the other hand, Minnesota has lost and failed to cover their last two outings. Granted both of those contests were on the road, but this team is giving up a lot of points. Not only that but they are one of the worst in the league on the defensive glass. This specific mismatch is going to be fatal for them here today as they face the NBA’s top-offensive rebounding squad. On the flipside, believe it or not Milwaukee tops the NBA in defense, both in points allowed and in field-goal percentage. There’s some talk Giannis might be sitting today. The latest report looks like he will play (check status). Even if the star forward does not play, I feel this team has enough talent on the floor and on the bench to stay undefeated. And for our purposes to get another ATS cover. Milwaukee is 9-3 ATS the last 12 road games, while Minnesota is 3-8 ATS the last 11 home games. Take the Bucks. Thank you.

Oklahoma City Thunder.

Slam Dunk.

Game 570.

4:30 PM PST/7:30 PM EST.

The Thunder are playing some great basketball. Not only have they won and covered three straight, but they are 5-1 ATS this season. On the other hand, the Magic are right on course. Orlando is expected to be one of the poorest teams in the NBA this season and so far, they haven’t disappointed. They are 1-6 straight up and 2-4-1 ATS. Oklahoma City has one eight of the last nine meetings in this rivalry straight up going, 7-1 ATS the last eight matchups. While Orlando is still dealing with a slew of injuries, for the most part OKC is relatively healthy. They are much stronger offensively. They are monsters on the offensive boards as well. And will get a lot of second- chance opportunities. While Orlando has a decent defense, offensively, they are absolutely horrible. They rank at or near the bottom of the barrel in a couple of major offensive categories. This includes scoring, which they rank 28th in the league. Not only is this team winless on the road the season, going 0-5, they have also failed to cover the last seven as a visitor going back to last season. Take the Thunder. Thank you.

New York Giants.

NFC GOW.

Game 269.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST.

My friends, I do several sets of my own power ratings. And on both of my sets, I have the New York Giants a small favorite in this matchup. They are now 6-1 on the season, both straight up and against the spread. Not only are they winning games but they’re winning games that they are coming back from deficits. That shows you how good certain teams really are. With a healthy Saquon Barkley running the ball and the ever-maturing David Jones at the helm, this team is playing some great football. You may not realize this, but they possess the number two rushing attack in the NFL, while also possessing the number five scoring defense in the league. When you combine those two benefits you will win ball games. Plain and simple. I understand Geno Smith has the highest quarterback rating of his career. But let’s face it, he was never a standout quarterback folks. I do like Kenny Walker running the ball. He has a bright future. But when push comes to shove and the game is in crunch-time, is Geno Smith the guy you want making decisions on the fly? I doubt it. I wouldn’t put too much stock in the Seattle’s last two games, which were both victories over Arizona and Los Angeles. Neither of those teams have shown any consistency. I do feel it’s going to be a slow-moving game, with a heavy dose of running the ball by both offensive units. So, this comes down to defense. And there is no way the 28th ranked scoring defense of Seattle isn’t going to get steamrolled here. As I mentioned earlier, I have the Giants a slight favorite on both sets of my power ratings. They will win this game out right and get another big “W”. So, getting points here is an early Christmas gift. Take New York. Thank you.

San Francisco 49ers on the moneyline.

NFL GOM.

Game 273.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST.

A lot of people thought that when San Francisco brought in Christian McCaffrey, that their woes would be behind them. Well, they came back down to reality last week in a devastating 44-23 loss at home against the Kansas City Chiefs. However, I think this is the week you’re going to see Christian McCaffrey have a very successful game and Jimmy Garoppolo, most likely have one of his best performances thus far this season. McCaffrey only had two days to acclimate himself with his new playbook and get in sync with Jimmy G. I look for him to have a very good game this week. Take note Deebo Samuel is out. But, coming off that embarrassing loss a week ago will really motivate the 49ers here. Please understand that the Los Angeles offense is one of the worst in football. They rank at or near the bottom in just about every major offensive category, including the most important one, which is scoring. The average just 17.3 points per game. They must now face one of the most ferociously stop-units in the NFL, coming in here angry and looking for redemption following last weeks loss. The San Fran “D” allows just 19-points per game. They are equally good against the pass as well as the rush. I don’t see the Rams having any success offensively in this matchup. I feel you’re going to see a lot of three-and-outs and multiple turnovers, thus resulting in the Los Angeles defense spending a lot of time on the field. Eventually by the second half they will tire-out and get exploited. Let’s not forget the 49ers have beaten the Rams seven consecutive regular season meetings. They’ve also covered the last six overall meetings in a row. They are also 4-0 ATS the last four versus the NFC West, while the Rams are 1-4 ATS the last five at home. Take the 49ers. Thank you.

Tennessee Titans on the moneyline.

NO LIMIT.

Game 267.

1:05 PM PST/4:05 PM EST.

After starting the campaign 0-2, Tennessee has rattled off four consecutive wins and covers. Derrick Henry has tallied over 536 yards rushing and five TDs on the ground. It seems as though each week the stand out ball-carrier gets better and better. Now he goes up against the 32nd ranked Houston rush defense here. There is no doubt he will have the best performance of the season. During their current hot streak, the Titans defense has gotten better and better with each week, yielding just 16.5 points per game. I just don’t see the Texans 28th ranked offense moving the chains at all here, let alone getting into the end zone. Tennessee is 7-0 ATS the last seven games played in October, 4-1 ATS the last five games following an ATS win, and 6-2 ATS the last eight versus the AFC South. Take the Titans. Thank you.

New York Jets.

Late Info Move.

Game 266.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST

My friends, the worm has turned in the AFC East. For decades we have watched the New England Patriots reign supreme. And we have also watched as the New York Jets have been the division doormat. While currently New England sits in last place in the division, New York has taken over the second-spot just behind Buffalo. After big road victories playing in tough places like Lambeau and Mile High, the Jets return to East Rutherford in front of their home crowd here. With the news that Mac Jones will be returning this week under center, the general public is playing New England. Come on folks. I like Jones. But let’s be honest. He has two touchdowns and six interceptions. And now he has to face the very stout New York “D”. You may not realize this but the Jets are not only yielding just 19.6 points per game, but they have also snagged 11 turnovers. The Patriots are one of the worst teams in the league committing turnovers, already coughing up the ball 15 times. In my opinion Bill Belichick and his team has an enormous amount of pressure on them. A lot more pressure than Robert Saleh and his boys. Actually, if you think about it, New York has almost no pressure on them because nobody expected them to win. Every victory they get is a bonus for the team at this point. Things will go from bad to worse for New England, while New York get another “W” here. The Patriots are 0-4 ATS the last four versus the AFC East. The Jets are 5-0 ATS the last five in October. The wrong team is favored here. But I will take the points with the Gang Green here, folks. Take New York. Thank you.

North Carolina.

Consensus.

Game 154.

5:00 PM PST/8:00 PM EST.

My friends, I think we can all agree Kedon Slovis is no Kenny Pickett. The Panthers passing unit has fallen from grace, ranking 83rd in the nation. Now I will tell you the Tar Heels give up some points. But I just don’t see the Pitt lackluster offense, competing with the stellar North Carolina “O“. UNC ranks ninth in passing, 44th in rushing, and ninth in points scored, accounting for over 41.7 points per game. They have a well-balanced offense that will keep the Pitt defense on the field and their offense off it. Throw into the mix the Panthers are point spread poison, covering just two of their last eight outings going back to December of last season. And if we’re going to talk turkey, their defense has allowed Rhode Island to put up 24, Georgia Tech to put up 26, Virginia Tech to put up 29, and Louisville to put up 24 in consecutive outings. I don’t see any of those offenses as explosive as North Carolina’s. Take the Tar Heels. Thank you.

Mississippi on the MONEYLINE.

VEGAS INSIDER MOVE.

Game 183.

4:30 PM PST/7:30 PM EST.

My friends, Mississippi is sitting in second place in the SEC West at 3-1. Only Alabama and LSU own better records, as they are both at 4-1. Now normally I would look at the Rebels upcoming contest and be a little nervous. They have the Crimson Tide up on the 12th of November. But I look at it a different way, guys. Facing an inferior Aggies team this week, which by the way is riding a three-game straight up losing streak, coming off their first loss of the campaign, and then getting a bye week before facing Alabama at home, gives Mississippi an opportunity to fine-tune their skills. No let down or taking the foot off the gas in this matchup. This is a team that needs to win this week. And they will win. There is a huge mismatch between their third ranked rushing attack and the Texas A&M 101st ranked run defense. Look for them to steamroll the Aggies on the ground. In the air, with Jaxson Dart at the helm, Ole Miss also possesses the more stable quarterback. A&M has had some serious issues at the position this season. With Max Johnson sidelined with a hand injury, they only have two options; Haynes King, who has a mere 57% completion rate and six touchdowns against six interceptions, and freshman Connor Weigman, who has only appeared in one game thus far, completing only eight passes. Please remember either of these two quarterbacks are going to have to face a very nasty, very angry, and a very ferocious Mississippi defense that’s allowing just 20.8 points per game. By the way, I also feel that Lane Kiffin is a better in-game coach than Jimbo Fisher. I’ll take Mississippi here for a big win and cover. Take the Rebels. Thank you.

Oklahoma State.

NO LIMIT.

Game 179.

12:30 PM PST/3:30 PM EST.

Guys, whether Martinez plays or not for Kansas State, I still don’t see the lackluster Wildcats offense going score-for-score with the explosive Cowboys “O“. Let’s face it, no matter who is at quarterback for the Kansas State, it won’t matter. The Oklahoma State offense ranks fourth nationally in scoring, accounting for over 44.7 points per game. Spencer Sanders will light up the scoreboard here. The quarterback has already amassed over 2,030 yards passing with 15 touchdowns in the air. Let’s not forget he is a dual-threat, adding another 352 yards rushing and eight scores on the ground. This is a very well-balanced unit that can and will keep the K State defense on the field. This is a team that has also taken the last three meetings in this series straight up with the average margin of victory coming by nearly 9-points per game. They are 12-3-1 ATS the last 16 conference games, 18-7-1 ATS the last 26 road games, and 33-16-2 ATS the last 51 overall games. Take Oklahoma State. Thank you.

Iowa State.

Oddsmakers Mistake.

Game 160.

9:00 AM PST/12:00 PM EST.

Sports fans, the wrong team is favored here. Each week I do two sets of power ratings. And my power ratings have the Cyclones favored by -3 and by -6. I’m well aware of the fact that Iowa State has lost four in a row straight up. But in each of those outings they have played very tight, losing those four games by combined 14-points. Let’s not forget Oklahoma is just 1-3 straight up their last four contests, failing to cover all four of those games. To say their defense has sprung a leak, is an understatement. When they brought Brent Venables in as a head coach, they thought he was a defensive genius. Maybe he wasn’t such a genius as it was the fact that when he was at Clemson as the defensive coordinator, he was in a very good system with a lot of talent around him. More than halfway through this regular season, the Sooners are just 4-3 straight up, and a dismal 2-5 against the spread. Their defense, or I should say lack of defense, has gotten plowed for over 31-points per game, ranking among the worst in the nation in yards allowed, rushing yards allowed, and points scored. And let’s be honest, ranking 86th in passing yards allowed ain’t nothing to write home about either. I know the Iowa State offense leaves a lot to be desired. But every opponent Oklahoma has faced for over a month now has lit them up. They live and die by their offense, trying to outscore opponents. However, the Cyclones defense ranks among the best in the country in total yards allowed, passing yards allowed, rushing yards allowed, and most importantly, in points allowed, ranking seventh nationally and yielding just 15.1 points per game. Oklahoma is 0-5 ATS the last five games played on grass. Iowa State is 20-6-2 ATS the last 28 games played in the month of October. Take to Cyclones. Thank you.

Utah Jazz.

CRASH THE BOARDS.

Game 517.

6:10 PM PST/9:10 PM EST.

Sports fans, Utah took down Denver at home in both teams season-openers, 123-102. Even if Collin Sexton, who is listed as questionable for this game, doesn’t play, this is still way too many points to give the Jazz. I understand that the Nuggets are in revenge-mode here and are playing at home, but it is still way too many points. On both sides of the court Utah is looking much stronger than Denver at this point. Throw into the mix that the Jazz are monsters on the offensive boards and will get a ton of second-chance shots, and I like the visiting team to possibly win outright here. But I will take the points for sure as they are 5-1 ATS the last six meetings in this series. Meanwhile The Nuggets are just 4-11 ATS the last 15 at home. Take Utah. Thank you.

Cleveland Cavaliers.

FAST BREAK.

Game 507.

4:40 PM PST/7:40 PM EST.

Despite a 2-1 record, the Boston Celtics are not looking like the team that they were a season ago. Their defense is absolutely atrocious, ranking 19th, and yielding over 115.3 points per game. They’ve got a couple of cogs in the wheel that will be continuing to sit due to injuries. But they are going to be without Grant Williams. He is serving a one-game suspension. I feel they are going to be a little thin upfront against the very talented duo of Jarett Allen and Evan Mobley. And when Boston tries to adjust, this will leave Donovan Mitchell open to score at will. Look for a major mismatch from beyond the arc in this contest as well. Cleveland is hitting over 40% from downtown, while Boston is allowing over 40% from three-point land. Not only that, but the Celtics are one of the worst in the NBA right now on the offensive boards. And they must go up against one of the best defensive rebounding corps in basketball. Take the Cavaliers. Thank you.

Charlotte Hornets on the moneyline.

Slam Dunk.

Game 503.

4:10 PM PST/7:10 PM EST

The Orlando Magic are one of the three remaining teams in the NBA that are winless. After today they stay that way. They are 0-5 SU and for our purposes, 1-4 ATS. This team is absolutely atrocious. They face a very hungry Charlotte Hornets squad that is 2-2 SU on the season. However, they have been money, going 3-1 against the spread. Believe it or not, the Hornets possess the top-scoring team in the NBA, averaging over 124.5 points per game. They are also number one in three-point percentage and number two in field goal percentage. I just don’t see the Magic even slowing them down in this matchup. On the other hand, Orlando ranks at or near the bottom and just about every major offensive category. They just won’t be able to keep peace in this contest. Charlotte is 15-6 ATS the last 21 meetings in Orlando, 19-7-1 ATS the last 27 on the road, and 6-1 ATS the last seven overall. Take the Hornets. Thank you.

Baltimore Ravens.

Thursday Night Football Winner.

Game 101.

5:15 PM PST/8:15 PM EST.

Funny thing, the Baltimore Ravens are just a couple of plays away from being 7-0 instead of being 4-3. Coming in here needing some victories, I feel the Ravens are much hungrier for sure. Not only that, but I just don’t see the Buccaneers defense compensating for their lack of offense anymore. I mean let’s face it, this is a team that has dropped four of the last five straight up and all five of those against the spread. The Tampa Bay offense is so deplorable, that their defense has become overworked and fatigued. I just don’t see Tom Brady getting out of his funk. Nor do I see this team coming back in what we call the “do for “ factor. I understand the Bucs have quite a few injuries that has contributed to their current downfall. But this team is just not playing with any emotion. And they certainly have no momentum whatsoever. Look for quarterback Lamar Jackson to work his magic on the ground, keeping the Tampa Bay defense honest, which will open up the Baltimore passing game. As I mentioned, the Bucs defense is fatigued and overworked. There is no way they could content in this matchup. The road team is 5-0 ATS the last five meetings in the series. The Ravens are 23-11-1 ATS the last 35 games played on grass. The Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS the last four games played at home. Take Baltimore. Thank you.

San Antonio.

Fast Break.

Game 549.

5:10 PM PST/8:10 PM EST.

Can you believe the Spurs are tied for the top-spot in the Southwest, while the Timberwolves are tied for the third spot in the Northwest? Not only is San Antonio 3-1 straight up, they’ve also covered three of their four outings this season. Minnesota, which is sitting at 2-2 has crushed sportsbettors, going 1-3 against the spread. The Spurs have won and covered three in a row, all on the road. And yet, the Timberwolves come in here nearly a double-digit favorite. These two teams just met on the same floor at the Target Center a few nights ago, when the Spurs devoured the T-Wolves 115-106. Now the odds makers of telling us that revenge is such a big factor that Minnesota is going to turn around and cover this nearly double-digit point spread. That is just ludicrous. San Antonio is money, going 8-0 ATS the last eight games played on one days rush, 6-0 ATS the last six games played following a straight up win, 15-5-1 ATS the last 21 games played on the road, and 13-3 ATS the last 16 games played overall. Take the Spurs. Thank you.

Milwaukee.

Slam Dunk.

Game 546.

4:40 PM PST/7:40 PM EST.

Nothing would give the only undefeated team in the Eastern conference, the Milwaukee Bucks more pleasure then crushing the Brooklyn Nets. Both teams were touted to be contenders this season. However, after a week of play, they are certainly looking like they’re heading in opposite directions. Brooklyn is just 1-2 and have suffered some ugly defeats already. While Milwaukee is a perfect 2-0, covering both of their outings at Philadelphia and at home against Houston. The Bucks own the number one defense in the NBA, yielding just 96.5 points per game. I just don’t see the out-of-sync Nets scoring on them here. To make matters worse, once again this season Milwaukee possesses one of the best offensive rebounding squads in the league. While they rank amongst the best in basketball in field goal percentage and three-point percentage, they will get as many second-chance shots as they need in this matchup. They have won and covered five of the last six overall meetings and five of the last seven in Milwaukee. Take the Bucks. Thank you.

Memphis Grizzlies on the moneyline.

FAST BREAK.

Game 524.

5:10 PM PST/8:10 PM EST.

I would absolutely hate to be the Brooklyn Nets today. My friends, this is a team with a lot of big names, a large payroll, and a lot of ego. But, let’s be honest, they just aren’t meshing. And now they have to face a Memphis Grizzlies opponent which is touted once again to be one of the strongest teams in the Western Conference. The Grizzlies begin the campaign beating both the Knicks and the Rockets, two subpar teams. Saturday night they went into Dallas and got crushed 137-96 by the Mavericks. Getting them off that embarrassing loss, which Ja Morant was held to just 20-points after setting a franchise record for points in the first two games, is going to be fatal for the visitors here. Let’s not forget Memphis has won and covered the last six meetings against Brooklyn, including all three at the FedEx forum. Granted the home team is a little shorthanded without Jaren Jackson or Zaire Williams. However, Dillon Brooks is expected to make his debut tonight. I just don’t see the Nets keeping pace with the Ja Morant and the explosive Memphis offense in this matchup. Not only that but, the Grizzlies are absolutely crushing it on the boards. This is a place where the Nets certainly need improvement. Look for a big mismatch on the glass in this meeting. Brooklyn is 2-6 ATS the last eight games played on two days rest, 9-28 ATS the last 37 games played following an ATS win, and 1-4 ATS the last five games played overall. Memphis is 16-6 ATS the last 22 games played following an ATS loss, 35-16 ATS the last 51 games played on one days rest, and 21-7 ATS the last 28 games played at home. Take the Grizzlies. Thank you.

Cleveland Cavaliers.

Slam Dunk.

Game 508.

4:00 PM PST/7:00 PM EST

This line is a little short as the odds makers are looking to trap you. They know that we all know the Cavaliers played last night in Chicago and had to had to travel back home to Cleveland for this matchup. Yes, Washington is 2-0. That is a fact. But let’s face it, they played the Bulls two evenings ago, and although they did win, they barely got the victory, eking out a 102-100 victory. Last night in Chicago, the Cavaliers demolished the Bulls, 128-96. You know after the Bucks, the Cavs are touted as the second strongest team in the Central Division. This is a very talented squad folks. They don’t commit to many turnovers, they are very accurate from the floor, whether it be around the basket or from downtown, and they also hit a high-percentage from the line. But the most impressive thing about Cleveland is once again they have a monster defense. They will frustrate the Washington squad, create turnovers, and will certainly take advantage in transition here. The Wizards are 6-20-1 ATS the last 27 following a straight up win, 4-9 ATS the last 13 on the road, and 7-19-1 ATS the last 27 played on one days rest. Take the Cavaliers. Thank you.

Kansas City Chiefs on the moneyline.

BEST BET.

Game 469.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST.

With the news of Christian McCaffrey being traded to San Francisco, the line dropped in this game. At the beginning of the week this is a game I circled because it stood out to me. Getting Kansas City off that tough heartbreaking loss at home in front of their loyal fans against Buffalo last week seem the right way to go. Since the news of the McCaffrey trade, the line has dropped. I have to tell you I like it even more now. McCaffrey certainly will bolster the offense. But understand that the Falcons exploited the 49ers weaknesses last week in the 28-14 dismantling of San Francisco. I’m not going to argue the fact that injuries have hurt San Francisco. This is the reason why they sputtered a week ago. Nothing has changed on that front. Key cogs in the wheel are still out. And Kansas City isn’t a team that you want to face coming off a loss. They are now tied with Los Angeles in the AFC West and need a big win here to build up a little bit of confidence and give them some momentum. I know the Chiefs are dealing with their own injuries in their secondary. Guys, I just don’t see the lackluster 49ers offense keeping pace with the mighty Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes score-for-score. Let’s not forget Kansas City is pretty damn good at stopping the run. And that is where San Francisco’s strength comes offensively. Under a field goal is a gift to here. Take Kansas City and take your bookmakers money. Thank you.

New York Jets on the moneyline.

AFC Game of the Week.

Game 465.

1:05 PM PST/4:05 PM EST.

If we would go back in time to just before the season began, none of us would have predicted that after nearly two months into the regular season, New York would be 4-2, while Denver would be 2-4 at this point. Believe it or not, the Jets are a perfect 3-0 both straight up and against the spread on the road this season. Going into places like Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Green Bay and coming away with victories is no small task. Now the team goes into Denver to face a Broncos squad that is riding a three-game SU slide. Sure, Denver possesses a very solid defense. However, when your offense ranks dead last in the NFL in scoring, no matter how strong your stop-unit is, you cannot compensate. That’s right, the Broncos are averaging a laughable 15.2 points per game and are absolutely crushing bettors, going 3-11 against the spread the last 14 versus the AFC, 0-5 against the spread the last five following an ATS win, and 3-7 against the spread the last 10 overall. Take the Jets. Thank you.

Take Portland.

Crash the Boards.

Game 501.

12:30 PM PST/3:30 PM EST.

Most of the early money this morning is coming in on the Lakers because the general public feels that after starting the season off going 0-2, that they are due for a victory. Well waiting for LeBron James and Los Angeles to get their first win, is worse than waiting for a check in the mail from Publishers Clearing House. Portland travels to LA with sporting their first 2-0 start since the 2018 campaign. Let’s throw away the fact that the Blazers are 14-6 ATS the last 20 meetings with the Lakers in Los Angeles. Let’s look at the present day. The Blazers are relatively healthy, while once again the Lakers are already listing most of their stars as questionable or probable here today. No one expect too much from LA. And I really don’t think their fans are expecting a victory here today. Despite all their superstar personnel, the Lakers are accounting for just 103.0 points per game. And now must face a much-improved Portland squad that is brimming with confidence, following wins and covers on the road at Sacramento and at home a few nights ago against Phoenix. Damian Lillard will light up the scoreboard here today in this match up. Take Portland. Thank you.

New York Giants.

No Limit.

Game 453.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

I know a lot of people out there are waiting for a shoe to drop on the New York Giants. But I’m here to tell you folks, that their carriage is no way turning into a pumpkin. At least not this Sunday. At this time last year, they lost five of their first six games. What an improvement! You may not realize this, but they own one of the three best records in the NFC. And one of the four best records in all of football. Believe it or not, I think this team is going to actually get better because they welcome back a couple of key defenders last week. And what can we say about quarterback Daniel Jones? He seems to be more and more comfortable with each passing week in this system. Love them or hate them, this team is for real. If you don’t believe me, just look at last weeks win over the Ravens. They were down 20-10 in the fourth quarter and then they came back to take down Lamar Jackson and the mighty Baltimore team. On the flipside you got a Jacksonville Jaguars team that is riding a three-game loss and no cover streak. I get it, they should have lost in Philadelphia back at the beginning of the month. But no way should they have taken defeats at the hands of Houston at home or even in Indianapolis last week. They are going to have a tough time trying to move the chains against the feisty seventh-ranked New York defense. And I do feel you are going to see Daniel Jones and workhorse running back Saquon Barkley, who by the way is listed as questionable with the soldier issue but reports are that he will play…I believe we going to see these two have their best performances so far this season. I have New York being a two-point favorite in my power ratings line. Take the Giants and take them to the bank. Cinderella continues in that dress, in that carriage, and goes to another ball. Thank you.

Baltimore Ravens.

AFC North Game of the Month.

Game 460.

10:00 AM PST /1:00 PM EST.

The Ravens return home this week following another disappointing loss in which they blew another lead. They sit at 3-3 and are tied for the top spot in the division. In their three defeats this season, the Baltimore was ahead in all three, only to give up late leads. The Browns are absolutely horrible, failing to win or cover their last three outings. They possess one of the weakest defenses in the NFL, ranking 30th and yielding 27.2 points per game. Look for Lamar Jackson and company to bounce back here and take over the AFC North against their division rival. They have covered the last five meetings in this series. And are 5-1 ATS the last six games played following an ATS loss. Take Baltimore. Thank you.

Green Bay Packers.

Bookie Buster.

Game 463.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

Aaron Rodgers has his lowest QB rating of his career. The team has dropped their last two games and sit in second place in their division at 3-3. There is no way the Packers will let another poor opponent get the best of them. The Commanders are down to Taylor Heinicke at the helm. The team got a win last week over the Bears breaking their four-game slide (both SU and ATS). Their offense is non-existent, ranking 29th in the league, averaging a dismal, 17.0 points per game. They just won’t be able to content with an angry Rodgers and the Green Bay “O”. The Packers are 11-5 ATS the last 16 vs. the NFC. Take Green Bay. Thank you.

Take Central Florida.

Contrarian play.

Game 333.

4:30 PM PST/7:30 PM EST.

Since an early-September home loss to Louisville, Central Florida has rattled off four consecutive straight up wins, going 3-1 against the spread. During their current hot streak, they have outscored opponents 178-56. The Knights have dominated the Pirates, winning the last six meetings in a row straight up, which includes all three meetings in Greenville. They have had a few extra days to rest, heal, and prepare for this contest. East Carolina will be a little fatigued, following last weeks four overtime two-point win over Memphis. That game marked their third no cover over the last four outings. Both quarterbacks are gunslingers. But two major advantages give Central Florida a big advantage in this match up. For starters, quarterback Plumlee is a dual-threat, passing for over 1,500 yards in the air and running for over 450 yards on the ground, accounting for a total of 18 touchdowns. He will light up the 117th ranked ECU pass defense here, keeping them off-balance with the squads fourth ranked rushing attack. Defensively, the Knights can certainly slow down and contain the Pirates with their seventh ranked stop-unit. Going back to last season, they have held their last nine opponents to 20-points or less. The road team is 6-2 ATS the last eight meetings in this rivalry. Central Florida is 4-0 ATS the last four games played in October and 5-2 ATS the last seven games played overall. East Carolina is 1-4 ATS the last five games played following a straight up win and 1-5 ATS the last six games played against conference opponents. Take the Knights. Thank you.

Take Alabama.

NO LIMIT GAME.

Game 382.

4:00 PM PST/7:00 PM EST.

There are a lot of headlines in the news this week following Alabama‘s 52-49 loss on the road against Tennessee last week. The Crimson Tide fell to sixth in the latest poll, ending the teams streak of 40-weeks inside the top-five. The 52-points yielded is the most scored against them since 1907. They also committed 17 penalties. Not to mention yielding nearly 600 yards of offense. It’s uncanny that a season ago after starting the campaign off winning their first five contests, Alabama dropped a game on the road at Texas A&M. The following week they faced Mississippi State as a visitor and crushed them 49-9 as a 17.5-point favorite. They then ran the gauntlet the rest of the regular season, not taking their foot off the gas, winning out. They have won 14 straight over the Bulldogs, covering the last four in a row, with the margins of victory coming by 24, 31, 41, and 40. Look for Bryce Young, who came back last week and showed no signs of a lingering shoulder issue, passing for over 455 yards to light them up in the air while ball-carriers, Gibbs and MccLellan steamroll the 81st ranked run defense of Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS the last seven meetings in Alabama. The Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS the last four games played following a straight up loss. Roll Tide. Take the Crimson Tide here, lay the wood, and beat the books. Thank you

Take UCLA.

PAC 12 GOM.

Game 375.

12:30 PM PST/3:30 PM EST.

The last two unbeaten teams in conference play in the Pac 12 square off here. After a season opening embarrassing 49-3 loss at the hands of Georgia, Oregon has since run off five consecutive wins. The one thing that does concern me is that they haven’t played the same level of competition as UCLA. The Bruins, over their last two outings, have taken down both the Huskies and the Utes. Mind you they were underdogs in both of those contests. Overall UCLA has a bit stronger of a defense, yielding six points per game less. Both are good at stopping the pass and both are good at stuffing the run. Both offenses are good at passing. And both offenses are very, very, strong at rushing. So, what does that tell you about this game? It tells me it’s going to be a very tight matchup. Throw into the mix that after this week, the Bruins schedule softens a bit. And the fact the last two meetings were both settled by three-points. This adds up to be a very close game. Way closer than the point spread. UCLA is 6-0 ATS the last six games played vs. Pac-12 foes, and 7-1 ATS the last eight games played on the road. Take the Bruins. Thank you.    

Take Syracuse.

OM GOM.

Game 353.

9:00 AM PST/12:00 PM EST.

For quite a while now, the only coach worthwhile up in Syracuse was Jim Boeheim. Well, that isn’t the case anymore. Dino Babers has his team a perfect 6-0. This does include being the only other undefeated team in the ACC Atlantic, other than Clemson. Not only that, but this team has been money to us bettors, going 5-1 against the spread this season. Clemson is a very good team. You may not realize this, but they’ve won 11 straight going back to last season. But I think we would all agree, this is not the same Tigers team we are used to seeing over the last several years. You know what’s funny is the Orange have covered six of the last eight meetings in this rivalry. And the bulk of that was during the Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence eras. Last year with DJ Uiagalelei at the helm, Syracuse came very close to beating them outright, losing a heartbreaker, 17-14. Believe it or not, the Orange enter this matchup with the number six ranked defense in the country, yielding a mere 13.2 points per game. They’re equally strong against the pass and the rush. Clemson‘s defense ranks 26th, allowing 19.7 points per game. But they have gotten shredded in the air. Garrett Shrader has the luxury of having Sean Tucker in his backfield to keep the Tigers defense honest and allow him to open up the passing game. The Orange are 7-0 ATS the last seven games played in the month of October, 5-2 ATS the last seven games played on the road, 9-4 ATS the last 13 games played against conference opponents, and 5-1 ATS the last six games played overall. The Tigers tend to get overvalued, particularly at home where they have only covered three of their last 11 games. Take Syracuse. Thank you.

Memphis Grizzlies.

Las Vegas Strip Move Play.

Game 547.

5:10 PM PST/8:10 PM EST.

Memphis begins their campaign off with a big win at Madison Square Garden two days ago, taking New York down 115-112 in overtime. Houston put up a valiant effort in Atlanta in their season opener, falling short 117-107 in Atlanta. Important to tell you that the Grizzlies did fail to cover, while the Rockets eked by with a cover by a half-point. The Memphis one of the strongest teams in the West. And once again, Houston is one of the worst. No one expects too much from them. However, the Grizzlies have high hopes this season. After a lackluster overtime win against the Knicks, the they must put their foot on the gas in this matchup to give the team a little momentum and confidence and their fans something to be excited about. Going back to last season the Rockets have now dropped eight in a row straight up. They are pretty good against the spread. But Memphis has had their way with them, taking five of the last six straight up and four of those six against the spread. Houston is just 0-5 ATS the last five games played vs. teams with the winning percentage above .600. They are also a dismal 25-55 AYTS the last 80 games played at home. Ja Morant and company are just too much for their counterpart to handle here. Take the Grizzlies. Thank you.

San Diego Padres.

Game 971.

4:37 PM PST/7:37 PM EST.

With this series tied 1-1, and now being played in Philadelphia, I know a lot of people out there are going to lean on the Phillies. However, the Padres have taken two of three at Citizens Bank Park this season. They are also a whopping 8-3 the last 11 games played on the road. I really do lean on their starting pitcher as the stronger of the two scheduled today. Joe Musgrove and Ranger Suarez are set to take the mound in this Game 3 matchup. Musgrove was 10-7 with a 2.93 ERA during the regular season. And is 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA this postseason. Not only that, but over his last three outings, despite having no decisions, he has an anemic ERA of 0.56 in 16 innings pitched. And on the road in 2022, the right-hander owns a very respectable 7-3, 3.01 mark. Suarez was 10-7 with a 3.65 ERA during the regular season. And during this postseason, he has no decisions, but owns a respectable ERA of 2.70. Over his last three outings he is not fared too well, going 1-2 with a 4.80 ERA, giving up 19 hits and eight runs in just 15 innings pitched. And at home this season, he split out, going 4-4 with a 4.27 ERA. Philadelphia is just 1-4 the last five versus the NL West, while San Diego is 5-2 the last seven versus the NL East. I like Musgrove as the stronger starter and feel San Diego has a little momentum here. Take the Padres. Thank you.

Los Angeles Clippers.

Above The Rim Play.

Game 531.

7:00 PM PST/10:00 PM EST.

After the beating the Lakers received at the hands of the Warriors in their season-opener a few days ago, I would normally look to jump on a team like that to bounce back in their second game of the campaign. However, the Lakers are a whole different story. And now that they have to face the Los Angeles Clippers, their crosstown rival in their season opening contest, I think things are going to go from bad to worse for LeBron James and company.  The Clippers are at full strength with no significant injuries to the roster. This is very exciting because it is the first game Kawhi Leonard will be taking the floor in about 15 months. Not only that, but it is the first game he and Paul George are both on the floor for in quite a while. And when you have a guy like John Wall coming off the bench, I think it’s safe to say that your team is loaded. The Clippers have taken seven consecutive meetings straight up with the Lakers, including all three a season ago. They are 10-1 against the spread the last 11 meetings at the Lakers and 35-17 against the spread the last 52 overall meetings with the Lakers. I look for Leonard to come out here and play very well as the team flexes their muscles against their crosstown rival. Take the Clippers. Thank you.

Georgia Tech.

Touchdown Play.

Game 308.

4:30 PM PST/7:30 PM EST.

I don’t know if it’s Brent Key being put at the helm for the Yellow Jackets, but whatever the team is doing, they are doing it right. Georgia Tech has won their last two outings at Pitt and at home against Duke while covering their last three contests. On the other hand, the Cavaliers season seems to be spiraling down the drain. They have dropped three in a row straight up and their last two against the spread. And to be quite honest, this team should’ve won their last few games, at least on paper. A season ago, Brennan Armstrong put up some amazing numbers. He went from passing for nearly 4,500 yards with a 65% completion rate, tossing 31 TDs and only 10 INTs, to this seasons numbers through six games, throwing for under 1,400 yards, with a dismal 55% completion rate, only five TDs and a whopping seven INTs. A lot of people are blaming it on the fact that the offensive line it’s just horrible. But I think their issues run a little bit deeper. Weather on the ground or in the air this team is just not putting points up on the board, averaging a lowly 17.8 points per game. To make matters worse, they have already committed eight turnovers. That doesn’t bode well when you’re facing a Georgia Tech defense that has already snagged seven turnovers themselves. Granted, they give up a lot of points on “D”, but the Yellow Jackets certainly match up well in this contest. On the flipside, sure the GT “O” leaves a lot to be desired. But I feel they will be able to rush the ball with success here, which will open up the passing game. On an added note, they only have committed two turnovers this season. They don’t make many mistakes. Which is very important in a matchup like this. The home team is 15-5-1 against the spread the last 21 meetings in this rivalry. The Cavaliers are 1-4 against the spread the last five meetings at the Yellow Jackets, 0-4 against the spread the last four games played following a straight up loss, and 1-6 against the spread the last seven games played overall. Take Georgia Tech. Thank you.

Georgia State.

Sun Belt Mid-Week Money Maker.

Game 301.

4:30 PM PST.

Appalachian State lost their season-opener, a barn-burning 63-61 defeat at the hands of North Carolina at home. But they were a favorite in that game. Then they won and covered in Week 2, when they took down a highly-touted Texan A&M team on the road. We thought this team would be a powerhouse (I’m talking about the Mountaineers). Because at the time, the Aggies were figured to be a dark horse for the College Football Playoff Boy did we seem that we overshot that prediction didn’t we? Lol. Since then, they failed to cover as a two-touchdown favorite in a 32-28 win at home against Troy. And then lost badly, worse than the 32-28 final score, in a home defeat at the hands of James Madison in which they were favored. They devoured the Citadel. But then again, we knew that would happen. And last week as a 19-point favorite on the road, they were shredded by Texas State. This team is just 1-2 in conference play. Their leading rusher, Camerun Peoples sat last week and the offense mustered just 41 yards on 21 carries. The ball-carrier is once again listed as questionable here. Whether he plays or not, I really like Georgia State tonight. The Panthers come into this matchup possessing the 13th ranked rushing attack in the nation. They can and will slow the game down and keep the Mountaineers defense on the field. On top of that, their “D”, which is less than stellar, has already snagged 10 takeaways already. Meanwhile Georgia State comes in here riding a two-game win streak, both straight up and against the spread, shellacking Army on the road 31-14 and then beating up on Georgia Southern at home a week ago, 41-33. The road team is 6-1 ATS the last seven meetings in the series. The Panthers are 10-1 ATS the last 11 games played followed a straight up win, 7-1 ATS the last eight games played on the road, and 7-2 ATS the last nine games played against conference opponents. Let’s face it, the Mountaineers numbers are really ugly especially compared to those; they are 1-5 ATS the last six games played at home, 0-5 ATS the last five games played versus conference opponents, and 2-7 ATS the last nine games played overall. Take Georgia State. Thank you.

Golden State Warriors.

Slam Dunk Play.

Game 504.

7:00 PM PST/10:00 PM EST.

Funny thing folks, the Golden State Warriors are touted to take the Western Conference. However preseason predictions have the Phoenix Suns actually taking the Pacific Division. That can’t sit well with the Warriors. No matter how you look at it, Los Angeles just does not have the horses to run with Golden State. I know that last season they played each other three times and the Warriors took two of the three meetings straight up. And the Lakers took two of the three against the spread. Yes, they play each other very tough. But this is a new season and Golden State would love to come out here and make a statement not just to their hated rivals, but to the entire Western Conference. This is a team loaded with playmakers. Let’s not forget they also finished last year covering six of their final seven at home and four of their final five overall. There’s no way they come out and start the season off without making a statement. Take the Warriors. Thank you.

Philadelphia 76ers.

Vegas Insider Move.

Game 501.

4:30 PM PST/7:30 PM EST.

The Celtics are touted to take Atlantic Division this season. This is a very talented team. However, they did lose a couple of big names that would definitely make them more competitive in this match up with the Sixers here tonight. I just don’t think with their current personnel that they have anyone that can contest Joel Embiid in the paint. And when they start to double-team him, Philadelphia is loaded with playmakers that can score both inside and out. If you recall, over the las few seasons, the 76ers covered seven of the last eight meetings with the Celtics. And that was with Boston’s bigger, stronger personnel. I just don’t see them stopping the big man in the middle. Take Philadelphia. Thank you.

Chargers.

MNF PAYDAY

Game 2576.

5:15 pm pst/8:15 pm est.

There is no love lost between the Broncos and Chargers. A win here would certainly help Los Angeles jump another game ahead of Denver in the AFC West. And why shouldn’t they win? They have won their last two outings both straight up and against the spread. Meanwhile the Broncos are slumping. They have dropped their last two both straight up and against the number. Denver‘s offense is sputtering. They rank 31st in the NFL, averaging a dismal 15.0 points per game. I just don’t feel no matter how good their fourth ranked defense is, that they can keep pace offensively with the Chargers in this game. I do feel that the 1-2 punch of quarterback Justin Herbert and running back Austin Ekeler will be enough to put the Broncos on the ropes and eventually knock them out. The home team is 5-0 ATS the last five meetings in the series. The Broncos are 1-5-1 ATS the last seven games played on Monday night, 1-7 ATS the last eight games played versus AFC opponents, and 0-5 ATS the last five games played on the road. Take Los Angeles. Thank you.

Dallas.

LATE BAILOUT.

Game 273.

5:20 pm pst.

If you got a guy winning you stay with him. And that’s why I feel Cooper Rush will be under center, Sunday Night. Very quietly, the Dallas “D” has held all opponents to 19-points or less per game, yielding an average of just 14.4 points per game. They are equally strong against the rush as well as the pass. Not only that, but they’ve already snagged seven takeaways that’s far this season. Dallas took both meetings a season ago. And going back to December 2020, they’ve won and covered the last three consecutive matchups in this division rivalry. The Eagles have a very good offense. But the Dallas “D” can certainly slow them down while Cooper Rush and his offense wears down the Philly ”D” and does some damage. The last few weeks, both Jacksonville and Arizona gave Philadelphia all they can handle. And I don’t think either of those teams are on the level of Dallas. This is way too many points to give a Cowboys team that can win this game outright. Dallas is 7-2 ATS the last nine overall meetings with the Eagles and 7-3 ATS the last 10 meetings in Philadelphia. They are also 10-1ATS the last 11 on the road, 22-7 ATS the last 29 versus the NFC East, and 20-7 ATS the last 27 overall. Take the Cowboys. Thank you.  

Buffalo.

Late Info Move.

Game 271.

1:25 pm pst.

Both teams are perched atop their divisions with records of 4-1. They both suffered a loss to an opponent they should’ve beaten. And they both, since those losses, come back to win pretty decisively over some solid opponents. Many out there will tell you that this is a big revenge factor for Buffalo, which lost to Kansas City in the AFC divisional round last January, when they took the lead with just 13-seconds left in regulation, only to lose in overtime. Many might also tell you that the Chiefs have a psychological edge because of that victory. But if you recall during the regular season, the Bills spanked the Chiefs in Arrowhead just a few months prior to losing that playoff matchup. The big difference in this matchup, I believe will be the defense of Buffalo. They have played equally good against the pass and the run. On the flipside, you can’t ignore the fact that Kansas City‘s pass defense has been very vulnerable and has given up a lot of yardage in the air. I do believe Josh Allen will have a good game here. And I do believe Patrick Mahomes will have one as well. But once again, the difference to me will be the defense of the Bills. I’m not crazy about laying points on the road in Arrowhead. But under a field goal I have to side with Buffalo. Kansas City is 0-4 ATS the last four game splayed versus the AFC and 1-4 ATS the last five game splayed following a SU win. Take the Bills. Thank you.

San Francisco 49ers.

10 Dimes Play.

Game 265.

Sunday, October 16, 2022.

10:00 AM PT/1:00 PM ET.

-5.5 Consensus line.

(As an early release I know the line can move. I have this number closer to -8.5. If it moves to -7, we are still good. If it goes to a 7.5, I would advise you just to err on the side of caution and buy it down to a TD).

My friends, I have the line in this game closer to -8.5. Now obviously releasing this on a Tuesday we see -5.5. This is due to several reasons that I want to inform you about. For starters, it is the second of back-to-back road games for San Francisco. And their third road game in four weeks. Let’s put a pin in that. We are going to return to it in a moment. The number is also a little low due to the fact that the 49ers, as of posting this release have a few players that were injured in Carolina on Sunday. Cornerback, Emmanuel Moseley will be out, safety Jimmy Ward broke his hand, defensive lineman, Nick Bosa is dealing with a groin injury, and kicker, Robbie Gould tweaked his knee. The status of Bosa and Gould will be determined sometime this week. But early reports are optimistic that they will play on Sunday. Let’s go back to me addressing the 49ers playing on the road. Something you must know and something I feel is a significant advantage for the visiting team here, is that head coach Kyle Shanahan, over the last few seasons has implemented staying over on the east coast when he has back-to-back road games. They happen to stay at the very posh Greenbrier Resort in West Virginia. And just FYI, the last two seasons they stayed on the east coast which preceded with wins over the Eagles and Jets. They have had a lot of success utilizing extended stays on the road going 7-1 straight up their last eight implementing this option. Going back to the injuries, I don’t know if there is another team in the NFL this season that has adapted to banged-up players as well as San Francisco. They are deep at key positions. And following quite a few major injuries to starters this team is 3-1 both straight up and against the spread their last four games. I am well aware of the fact that the Atlanta Falcons are a perfect 5-0 against the number this season. But the clock strikes midnight this Sunday for this team at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. This is a very difficult matchup for Atlanta. To begin with, their passing unit is absolutely deplorable, ranking 30th in the league accounting for just 166.8 yards per game in the air. Their strength has come from their rushing attack. Well without Cordarrelle Patterson, their leading ball-carrier (out with a knee injury), they ran for only 151 yards combined against Tampa Bay in Sunday’s 21-15 road loss. When your quarterback leads the team in rushing with 61 yards, it’s an issue. By the way two of their rushes combined for more than a third of the rushing yards. Without Patterson pounding the ball on the ground, Mariota is going to be running for his life the entire game. He must face the NFL’s top-ranked defense here. The ferocious, 49ers stop-unit leads the league in points allowed (12.2), total yards allowed (249.2), and rushing yards allowed (71.4), and also ranks third in passing yards allowed. (177.8). Jimmy Garoppolo is looking very comfortable at the helm. As a matter fact, with each passing week, his performances are getting better and better. He gets to lineup against Atlanta’s 29th-ranked pass defense. You we’ll see the quarterback have enormous success in the air here. He has the luxury of a backfield that ranks eight in rushing, averaging over 138.8 yards per game on the ground. There is no way the inferior Falcons “D” can slow down, let alone stop this well-balanced offense. Throw in to the mix, playmaker extraordinaire, Deebo Samuel and San Francisco will be able to move the chains and score at will here. It won’t just be Garoppolo‘s numbers that will go up, so will running back, Jeff Wilson Jr. tight end, George Kittle, wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, and as I mentioned, you can expect a lot from Samuel as well. Despite the Falcons against the spread success this season, they are just 2-5 ATS the last seven games played at home and 1-4-1 ATS the last six games played versus teams with a winning record. San Francisco is 5-2 ATS the last seven games played on the road, and 8-1 ATS the last nine games played versus NFC opponents. Take the 49ers here. Thank you.

Jacksonville.

MVP PLAY.

Game 255.

10:00 am pst.

A bit of luster has come off the Jaguars shine after starting the season 2-1 and now falling to a subpar 2-3. But they have certainly been the Achilles’ heel for Indianapolis, going 13-1-1 ATS the last 15 meetings in this series. This does include a 24-0 spanking in mid-September. The Colts offense is nonexistent and facing the Jaguars top-10 defense, I doubt they have what it takes to finally cover a game in this division rivalry, let alone win here. The underdog is 6-0 ATS the last six meetings in this series. The Jaguars are 5-1-1 ATS the last seven meetings in Indianapolis. Take Jacksonville. Thank you.

Miami.

NO LIMIT PLAY.

Game 264.

10:00 am pst.

In my opinion, the Minnesota Vikings are the worst 4-1 team in the league. I’m not going to argue the fact there is talent on this team. But they just can’t string together consistent solid performances. Not only that, but they are crushing bettors, failing to cover four consecutive contests. Miami has some well-documented quarterback issues. But even if it is Skylar Thompson is at the helm, he has had a week to prepare. And you can bet that he and his stellar arsenal of wideouts will exploit the very vulnerable, Minnesota pass defense. There is no way I can, in good conscience lay points with Minnesota on the road. The Vikings are 1-5 ATS the last six games played on the road. The Dolphins at 16-5 ATS the last 21 games played at home. Take Miami. Thank you.

Penn State Nittany Lions.

VEGAS INSIDER MOVE.

Game 127.

9:00 am PST/12:00 pm EST.

Now the favorite in this series has covered seven of the last eight meetings. But this matchup is certainly a step-up in class for Michigan. In my opinion, Michigan still hasn’t been tested. We really don’t know how good this team is. Let’s face it. They’ve been big double-digit favorites in every outing this season. Just to give you a little reminder; they were 31-point favorites over Colorado State, 52-point favorites over Hawaii, 47.5-point favorites over Connecticut, 17-point favorites over Maryland, 10.5-point favorites over Iowa, and 23.5-point favorites over Indiana. Oh, and by the way, they are just 3-3 against the spread this season. They’re being overvalued drastically, guys. So, what are the odds makers telling you about this matchup? They’re telling you that Penn State is going to be very competitive here. You know the Nittany Lions went on the road and won and covered at the Boilermakers and the Tigers of Auburn. Neither one of those opponents were pushovers. I know the Wolverines defense is statistically very good. But once again, they haven’t faced a well-balanced offense of the caliber like they’re going to face this week against the Nittany Lions. Defensively, I see the Penn State stop-unit, which by the way only allows 14.8 points per game, frustrating the Michigan offense badly here. Sports fans, the Wolverines live and die by the rush. And Penn State ranks seventh nationally defending the run. I really do feel that this is going to be a very competitive matchup. And I do feel once again the Wolverines are being overvalued. You know the Nittany Lions won two of the last three meetings between these two teams straight up. And last year, they only lost by four-points. They are an excellent road team, straight up and against the spread, as they are 7-3 ATS the last 10 games played as a visitor. Let’s remember Michigan has problems covering against solid opponents, going a mere 4-9 ATS the last 13 games played versus teams with a winning record. I like Penn State to win outright. But I’ll take a touchdown here folks. Let’s go Nittany Lions. Thank you.

Tennessee Volunteers.

Touchdown play.

Game 122.

12:30 pm pst.

My friends, I am posting this release Friday late afternoon. And over the last several hours I have seen this line rise. With no official announcement if Bryce Young will play or not, I am taking it as most of the general public feels the starting quarterback will be back. For the sake of argument, let’s say he comes back. If he does, he will be not 100% and a bit rusty. If he does not play, I think we can all agree that Jalen Milroe is not quite there yet as far as experience and savvy. Tennessee is playing some very good football. They rank second in the nation scoring an average of 46.8 points per game. And their defense is allowing just 17.8 points per game. This is a team that is very well-balanced on both sides of the ball. Offensively, they have a very good air attack as well as a solid ground game. This will make it a bit tough for the Crimson Tide to key on either area. Defensively, they can certainly slow down the ‘Bama running game. Mind you, when Bryce Young was at the helm, the Crimson Tide passing unit wasn’t doing all that great. The offense relies heavily upon their rushing attack. And the Volunteers can counter with one of the stingiest and nastiest run defenses in the nation. This is going to be a very close game my, friends. Tennessee comes in with a lot of confidence winning all five of their contests and covering four of those five. Mind you, the last two weeks, they took down Florida and LSU. They are certainly not afraid of Alabama. Take the Volunteers. Thank you.

Penn State Nittany Lions.

VEGAS INSIDER MOVE.

Game 127.

9:00 am PST/12:00 pm EST.

Now the favorite in this series has covered seven of the last eight meetings. But this matchup is certainly a step-up in class for Michigan. In my opinion, Michigan still hasn’t been tested. We really don’t know how good this team is. Let’s face it. They’ve been big double-digit favorites in every outing this season. Just to give you a little reminder; they were 31-point favorites over Colorado State, 52-point favorites over Hawaii, 47.5-point favorites over Connecticut, 17-point favorites over Maryland, 10.5-point favorites over Iowa, and 23.5-point favorites over Indiana. Oh, and by the way, they are just 3-3 against the spread this season. They’re being overvalued drastically, guys. So, what are the odds makers telling you about this matchup? They’re telling you that Penn State is going to be very competitive here. You know the Nittany Lions went on the road and won and covered at the Boilermakers and the Tigers of Auburn. Neither one of those opponents were pushovers. I know the Wolverines defense is statistically very good. But once again, they haven’t faced a well-balanced offense of the caliber like they’re going to face this week against the Nittany Lions. Defensively, I see the Penn State stop-unit, which by the way only allows 14.8 points per game, frustrating the Michigan offense badly here. Sports fans, the Wolverines live and die by the rush. And Penn State ranks seventh nationally defending the run. I really do feel that this is going to be a very competitive matchup. And I do feel once again the Wolverines are being overvalued. You know the Nittany Lions won two of the last three meetings between these two teams straight up. And last year, they only lost by four-points. They are an excellent road team, straight up and against the spread, as they are 7-3 ATS the last 10 games played as a visitor. Let’s remember Michigan has problems covering against solid opponents, going a mere 4-9 ATS the last 13 games played versus teams with a winning record. I like Penn State to win outright. But I’ll take a touchdown here folks. Let’s go Nittany Lions. Thank you.

Kansas Jayhawks,

BIG 12 GOM.

Game 183.

9:00 am PST/12:00 pm EST.

When Brent Venables took over at Oklahoma many thought they would take the Big 12 conference this season. But yet, they are sitting at a very very disappointing 3-3. They’ve had to endure three consecutive losses against Kansas State, at TCU, and against Texas. Each loss has been a more disappointing defeat than the previous. They have also gone 0-3 ATS in those last three outings. Even though there has been no official statement yet, QB, Gabriel is expected back this week. No matter who is under center, they must line up across a Kansas team that has done very well for us bettors in the underdog role. They won outright in West Virginia, in Houston, and at home against Iowa State. Now the oddsmakers have made them a nearly a double-digit underdog. I ask why. It doesn’t make any sense to me. They are just a half-point from covering all six games this season. With the Sooners defense allowing nearly 30-points per game on the season and nearly 50-points per game over the last three, I look for the Jayhawks offense to light up the scoreboard here. Between dual-threat quarterback Daniels and running back Neal, they’ve already accounted for over 756 yards rushing and nine TDs on the ground. The ground game will allow Daniels to open up the passing game and add to his very impressive, 66% completion rate, nearly 1,100 yards passing and 11 TDs in the air. By the way, he has been absolutely outstanding, only tossing one INT thus far. Kansas is going to give Oklahoma a very hard time. They might even win this game outright. But the fact that they our 4-1 ATS the last five meetings with Oklahoma, 4-0 ATS last four games played on the road, 5-0-1 ATS the last six games against conference opponents, and 8-0-1 ATS the last nine games played overall, urges me to take the Jayhawks. Thank you.

Los Angeles Dodgers.

Game 963.

5:37 pm PT/8:37 pm ET

My friends, Los Angeles does not take losing lightly. And dropping Game 2 at home in front of their loyal fans left even worse of a bad taste in in their mouth. They will bounce back here in Game 3 at Petco Park and gain the edge in this series. They have had their way with the Padres in San Diego, taking four the last five meetings there. The pitching matchup here heavily favors Los Angeles as Tony Gonsolin and Blake Snell are scheduled starters. Gonsolin went 16-1 with a 2.14 ERA during the regular season and will be making his 2022 postseason debut. He also went 2-0 in two starts against San Diego this season with anemic ERA of 0.71. If you’re worried about him being on the road, don’t be. He was perfect as a guest in 2022 sporting a 7-0 mark with a 2.66 ERA. On the other hand, Snell was 8-10 with a 3.38 ERA during the regular season. During the postseason so far, he is 0-0 with a whopping ERA of 5.40. He did quite well after the All-Star Break. But had problems this season against Los Angeles. In three starts against the Dodgers, he was 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA. Control was an issue for the left-hander, walking 10 batters in just 14 innings pitched. San Diego is 2-5 the last seven playoff home games, 1-5 the last six games played following a win, and 2-10 the last 12 divisional playoff games. Take Los Angeles. Thank you.

Navy Midshipmen.

Consensus play.

Game 113.

4:30 PM PT/7:30 PM ET.

These two conference rivals come in to this matchup in very different situations. Navy started getting hot, winning two of their last three straight up and all three against the spread, while SMU has turned ice-cold, dropping three in a row straight up and their last four against the number. I know the Mustangs will be able to throw the ball against the lax, Midshipmen pass defense. However overall Navy still plays a very tough “D“. They allow just 21.0 points per game. On the flipside, look for Navy to control the clock and the tempo of this game with their powerful 12th ranked rushing attack. They are going to run amok against 106th ranked SMU run defense. As I mentioned in the beginning of this analysis, the Middies are starting to get hot. They took down the Pirates, played very competitive against the Falcons, and just shredded the Golden Hurricanes. Because they mostly run the ball, they will keep the SMU defense on the field and their all offense off of it. This is way too many points to give a Navy team that can win this game out right. The Midshipmen are 7-2 against the spread the last nine meetings in this series. Take Navy. Thank you.

New York Yankees.

Game 966

10:07 am PT/1:07 pm ET.

New York took Game 1 of this series on Tuesday by score of 4-1. Cleveland came out the top of the third inning to hit the scoreboard first and lead, but just for a few minutes. The bottom of the third, New York tied it up. and then their bats went to town the rest of the game, taking the series opener. That’s pretty indicative of the baseball that the Yankees play. The Guardians played very good towards the end of the season, as one of the hottest teams in all of baseball to finish the season. However, playing good in the regular season and then taking the Rays at home in the Wildcard round is much different than going on the road to the Bronx and playing in New York. Let’s face it, the playoffs are a whole different monster. Furthermore, going into Yankee Stadium to face the best home team in the American League is even more of a monster. The Yankees have now taken six of the seven meetings with the Guardians in 2022, outscoring them by a combined, 42-14. This includes winning all four meetings with Cleveland this season in the Bronx. Today’s starters are Shane Bieber and Nestor Cortés Jr. Both pitchers Finished the regular season on high-notes. The one thing that really stands out to me is the fact that Cortez is 6-1 with a 1.95 ERA at home on the campaign. While Biebers numbers are very good, Cortezhas allowed three runs or less in 12 consecutive appearances. Cleveland is 2-9 their last 11 playoff games, 0-6 the last six road playoff games, and 0-7 the last seven divisional playoff games. They are also just 23-50 last 73 meetings in New York. Take the Yankees. Thank you.

Los Angeles Dodgers on the run line.

Game 934.

5:37 PM PT/8:37 PM ET.

Los Angeles took Game 1 of this series yesterday by a score of 5-3. They have now taken three straight meetings over San Diego and seven of the last overall nine matchups. While the Padres are a good team, the Dodgers are a very good team. And facing L.A. at Dodger Stadium is a difficult task for any visitor as they finished the regular season the most successful home team in the National League going 57-24 at Dodger Stadium. San Diego had decent numbers, both on the mound and at the plate this year. However, they still rank around the middle of the pack in both areas. Los Angeles, what can you say they, own the top pitching staff as well as the top scoring lineup in baseball. And the differences between two squads going up against one another in those areas are significant. Today’s starting pitchers are Yu Darvish and Clayton Kershaw. The Padres right-hander is 17-8 with a 3.03 ERA in 2022, which includes a win this postseason. The Dodgers left-hander is 12-3 with a 2.28 ERA on the campaign. Darvish’s postseason numbers are decent. But they just don’t match up with Kershaw’s playoff statistics. He also has a career record against Los Angeles of 3-5. Compare that to 45 career regular season starts again San Diego for Kershaw, who is 23-9 with a 2.03 ERA in 292 innings pitched. Let’s face it, playoff experience means a lot. San Diego is 16-41 the last 57 meetings with Los Angeles, 2-5 the last 7 playoff road games, and 1-10 the list 11 divisional playoff games. Take Los Angeles on the run line. Thank you.

Los Angeles Dodgers on the run line.

Game 924.

6:37 PM PT/9:37 PM ET.

My friends, I wouldn’t overthink the fact that the Dodgers closed out the regular season campaign dropping three of their last four. They didn’t need the wins and they coasted through and rested quite a bit in preparation of the postseason. Yes, the Padres took down the highly-favored Mets in the Wildcard round. They deserve our applause for sure. However, things are going to go drastically different for San Diego in this series. Especially here in Game 1. They must face a Los Angeles team that sported the best home record in the National League this regular season, going 57-24 at Dodger Stadium. You know going back a bit the Padres have not fared well at all in L.A., going 16-45 the last 61 meetings as a guest in the Dodgers house. Starting pitchers for today’s series opener are Mike Clevinger and Julio Urias. The Padres right-hander was 7-7 with a 4.33 overall on the season. On the road, his ERA soars to 5.46. Now the team has won his last four appearances, which does include a September 9 extra innings 5-4 win in Los Angeles. But he earned the loss just five days before at Dodger Stadium. However, in both of those matchups he allowed nine earned runs in just 8.1 innings pitched. As a matter of fact, he was 0-2 with a 9.69 ERA in three starts against Los Angeles this season. Urias sports team great numbers. Overall, on the campaign he 17-7 with a 2.16 ERA. This does include at a home mark of 6-3 with a 2.43 ERA. What is remarkable about the Dodgers left-hander is that he has allowed two runs or less in his last 14 appearances. The team is has won 17 of his last 19 outings. Moreover, he has dominated San Diego in four games season, going 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA in 24 innings pitch. Three of those starts came in the month of September when he went 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA. As a matter fact, in 15 career appearances (which does include 10 starts against the Padres), Urias is 6-1 with a 2.19 ERA. If you recall, in the only other postseason match up all-time between these two teams, the Dodgers swept the Padres three games to zero in the 2020 NLDS. San Diego is 5-11 the last 16 playoff games, 1-4 the last five games played following a win, and 1-5 the last six divisional playoff road games. Take Los Angeles on the runline. Thank you.

Kansas City Chiefs.

MNF GOM.

Game 480.

5:15 PM PST/8:15 PM EST.

I live in Las Vegas. And I also have the opportunity to watch the Raiders practice on a regular basis. I know this team inside and out. Don’t think for a second that getting a win last week is going to inspire this squad. It was no fluke that they begin the 2022 campaign 0-4 both straight up and against the spread. And now that they got a win under their belt, trust me when I tell you they’re going to fall back down to Earth here. Serious “let down” mode folks. The Chiefs are looking to remain atop the AFC West by continuing their stellar play thus far this season. After starting the campaign 2-0, Kansas City did fall in a tough match up at Indianapolis several weeks ago. However, their bounce back in an outstanding performance in Tampa Bay last week showed just how good this team really is. That loss to the Colts a few weeks ago show them what they need to work on and improve. And now they are better than ever. Just in this series they have dominated Las Vegas, winning 13 of the last 15 meetings straight up as well as sporting an 8-1 straight up and 7-2 against the spread marks at Arrowhead Stadium. Derek Carr has talent. I will not debate that. But he makes very poor decisions. Especially when he is under pressure. That is exactly what Kansas City is going to do in this matchup. They’re going to blitz, blitz, blitz, throwing, throw a lot of different packages and schemes at him and pressure him badly. They are going to force him to turn the ball over for sure. There is no way the Raiders 24th ranked defense can’t even slow down, let alone stop the Chiefs offensively. The juggernaut which is the Patrick Mahomes-lead “O“, ranks in the top-10 in just about every major offensive category. This includes the most important category, scoring. They are accounting for over 32.3 points per game. This does not bode well for the lowly Raiders “D” which is getting plowed for over 25-points per game. On the flipside, please understand that the only success Las Vegas has had offensively thus far, is establishing the run and then passing off of it. Well, the Chiefs stop-unit tops the NFL against the rush. They are only allowing 65.8 yards per game on the ground. Las Vegas is 1-5 against the spread the last six games played on the road and 3-7 against the spread the last 10 games played on grass. Kansas City is 6-2 against the spread the last eight games played at home and 7-1-1 against the spread the last nine games played on Monday Night. Take the Chiefs. Thank you.

Philadelphia Eagles.

Bookie Buster.

Game 473.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST.

There is only one undefeated team in the NFL. And that is the Philadelphia Eagles. You know you would think that after the first full month of regular season, a team going 4-0, that they were due for a letdown. But the Eagles are showing no signs of taking their foot off the gas. They have covered three straight games, Guys, this is a team which has seen their quarterback, Jalen Hurts mature significantly coming into this season. You may not realize this, but this offense ranks second in total yards per game, sixth in passing yards per game, fifth in rushing yards per game, and fourth in points scored. Not only do they have a very dangerous receiving corps, but the legs of Miles Sanders and quarterback, Hurts, have combine for over 561 yards rushing and seven TDs on the ground. On the flipside, their “D” has played outstanding football. They rank in the top-10 in every major category defensively. And they lead the NFL in turnovers, already grabbing 10 takeaways. That is just outstanding to me. On the other hand, Arizona has been very typical thus far. They lost to two teams that on paper, they are better than in Kansas City and Los Angeles. But did beat two teams on paper, once again they should’ve beaten in Las Vegas and Carolina. They are struggling offensively. While Kyler Murray, I’m not going to argue the fact he is a very good athlete, but he is just not getting the job done. Neither is his supporting cast. And defensively, this team ranks 28th and the league, getting plowed for over 25.8 points per game. I’ll look for them to get absolutely picked apart in the air by Hurts and his arsenal of receivers, Brown, Smith, and Goedert. I know Philadelphia has failed to cover the last five meetings in Arizona, but these are two very different teams this season. The Cardinals are one of the worst home teams in the league ATS, failing to cover seven straight at State Farm Stadium. Not only that but they are also 2-5 ATS the last seven versus the NFC, 1-4 ATS the last five versus teams with a winning record, and 3-7 ATS the 10 overall. Take the Eagles here too soar. Take Philadelphia. Thank you.

Dallas Cowboys.

Late Info Move.

Game 475.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST.

My friends, we’ve all heard of Super Bowl hangovers. However, it seems that the Los Angeles Rams are taking back to another level. I know they are just 2-2 after a month into the regular season and a lot can happen between now and December. But they be quite honest this team is in serious trouble. They beat the teams that on paper they should’ve beat in Atlanta and Arizona. And they lost to the teams that on paper they should’ve lost to in Buffalo in San Francisco. But it is the 49ers game that really influences my angle on this matchup. First of all, they come off a short week having played on Monday night. And normally I don’t gauge a current game solely on a previous team’s performance from the week before. But it’s hard to ignore the fact that the Rams just can’t move the chains or put any points on the board folks. I mean they rank 28th in total yardage, 20th in passing yards, 30th and rushing yardage and 29th and points scored. They are not just struggling; they are out of sync offensively. There are some underlying deep issues here for sure. They’re averaging a dismal 17.5 points per game. Granted the Cowboys “O” is not lighting up any scoreboards. But when your defense is allowing just 15.5 points per game, you don’t really need to light up the scoreboard folks. There’s a lot of talk this week that we may see the return of Dak Prescott. But with the way that Cooper Rush has looked, if I was a Dallas coach, I would definitely keep Prescott on the sidelines until I know he was 100% healthy. The backup quarterback has committed zero mistakes. And in my opinion, that’s the most impressive stat about Rush. They’re going to keep the ball on the ground with a heavy dose of the rushing attack. This will allow the passing game to open up and Rush can pick his spots in the air, guys. This is going to be a very slow-moving contest. Dallas is going to keep the ball on the ground, controlling the clock and the tempo, keeping the LA defense on the field. And more importantly their offense off of it. Not only do I think this game is going to be a lot closer than the point spread, I think Dallas has a good chance of winning it out right. This is a team that is 5-0 ATS the last five games played on the road and 16-5 ATS the last 21 games played versus the NFC. Meanwhile Los Angeles is just 1-4 ATS their last five games played at home and 3-7 ATS the last 10 games played versus teams with a winning record. Take the points to the bank with the Cowboys here folks. Say it with me…GO COOPER RUSH!!! Take Dallas folks. Thank you.

San Francisco 49ers.

MVP Game of the Month.

Game 471.

1:05 PM PST/4:05 PM EST.

Starting the season off going 1-3 both straight up with against the spread, shouldn’t be too much of a shock for Carolina fans. I mean if you recall, last year they finished the season rattling off seven consecutive losses both straight up and against the number. Bringing in Baker Mayfield was supposed to be the remedy for this team. However, Mayfield’s quarterback rating of 30th is downright laughable. The offenses average a mere 19.5 points per game, ranking 24th in rushing, 30th in passing, and dead-last in total yardage. They must now go up against a San Francisco defense that has yet to allow an opponent to put up 20-points. The 49ers stop-unit tops the league in both total yards and points allowed while raking second against both the pass and the run. I see serious mismatches between these two squads here. Carolina has already coughed-up the ball six times, while San Francisco has snagged five turnovers already. No matter who is at the helm for the Panthers, I doubt very much they are going to be able to move the chains at all against this defense. On the flipside, Jimmy Garoppolo certainly has looked more comfortable at the helm. This last Monday he led the team to a 24-9 win and cover over the Los Angeles Rams. Some key cogs in the 49ers offensive wheel are returning as the entire offense is looking more and more in sync. And unbeknownst to many, this unit has a top-10 rushing attack. Throw into the mix playmaker extraordinaire, Deebo Samuel, and things are starting to significantly improve for San Francisco. They will completely shut down the Carolina “lack of” offense, while Garoppolo, Samuel and George Kittle make their way down the field and into the end zone at will. The 49ers are 7-1 ATS the last eight versus the NFC, 4-1 ATS the last five versus teams with a losing record, and 7-2 ATS the last nine overall. Under a touchdown is a gift here. Take San Francisco.

Detroit Lions.

No Limit Play.

Game 469.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

Believe it or not, the wrong team is favored in the Detroit Lions/New England Patriots game on Sunday. Obviously, this is new territory for Bill Belichick and the Pats. We haven’t seen them start a season 1-4 in as far back as I can remember. Not only are they not winning, they are crushing bettors. They just got their first cover of the 2022 campaign. To add insult to injury they’re running out of quarterbacks up in Foxborough guys. Mac Jones out. Brian Hoyer out. That leaves the offense in the hands of Bailey Zappe. Who? Bailey Zappe. I mean in all sincerity, even with Jones and then Hoyer, they were struggling. They’re putting an atrocious 18.5 points per game on the board. And they’ve already committed nine turnovers. I know, I know, I know the Lions defense is absolutely horrible. But that’s old news. Nothing new there. But what is a new headline, is the fact that they possess the top-scoring offense in the NFL right now. That’s right, the Detroit Lions are accounting a whopping 35-points per game. They rank number one in total yardage, number five in passing yards, and number six in rushing yards. Jared Goff has a better receiving corps here that he has ever had in his tenure in the NFL. Not only that but he has the luxury of a very potent ground game to keep defenses honest. And it will be that ground game that will keep the Patriots defense backpedaling, allowing Goff to open up the very passing attack. Once again, yes, I know the Detroit defense is absolutely horrible. But I just don’t see the New England offense keeping pace with them score-for-score. And how about the fact that they’re 9-2 against the spread the last 11 in the underdog role. As a matter fact they’re ATS trends are some of the best in football; 13-3 the last 16 following and ATS loss, 6-2 the last eight on the road, 7-2 the last nine following a straight up loss, and 4-1 five overall. Personally, I think they win this game out right. But I will take the points just the err on the side of caution. I’m going to say something I haven’t said in years. Take the Lions folks. They are winner this Sunday. Take Detroit. Thank you.

Alabama Crimson Tide.

NO LIMIT GAME OF THE MONTH.

Game 386.

5:00 PM PST/8:00 PM EST.

Let’s talk about Texas A&M going to Bryant-Denny Stadium to face Alabama. Obviously, the big news this entire week is if the Crimson Tide quarterback, Bryce Young will play. Well reports over the last day or so are that he has practiced and he has looked pretty strong. Officially we’re not going to know as of posting this release. If he plays great. If he doesn’t, remember one thing. The Crimson Tide is stacked at key positions higher than the pancakes at your favorite breakfast café. Jalen Milroe is a very good quarterback. He’s the back up for the number one team in the nation. He was a great high school football star. The only difference is, he has a little less experience at this level. That’s all. Don’t overthink it. Just between us guys, I’m 53 years old, and although I was an all-state quarterback in high school only 5’6’, I could step in and lead Alabama to a victory here. Over the last several weeks we have seen Georgia leapfrog Alabama in the rankings when they had a better performance on a gameday. Then last week the Crimson Tide had a stronger performance than the Bulldogs and reclaimed the number one spot. Having said that, Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban does not want to relinquish the top-spot in the polls. He knows that he’s coming up against some good conference opponents, and he needs to keep his foot on the gas. Offensively, Alabama although has a very strong passing game, strongly depends on their rushing attack. They currently rank seventh in the nation averaging over 250 yards per game on the ground. Not only that, but they don’t make mistakes offensively. They don’t turn the ball over. They’ve had one turnover so far this season. And believe me, if Young does not play, the game plan will be run the ball, and pass off the run. And most importantly tuck the ball or throw it out if you don’t have a play. As we all know Texas A&M was a preseason darkhorse to make the College Football Playoff. After five games they sit at a disappointing 3-2 with a lackluster offense that is accounting for just 21.8 points per game. They rank about 100th or worse in just about every major offensive category. And they have to line up against one of the nastiest and stingiest defenses in the nation. The Tide only allow 11-points per game and rank in the top-10 and every major defensive category. Trust me when I tell you it will be a long, long day for the Aggie‘s. Texas A&M comes off a 42-24 spanking at the hands of Mississippi State a week ago. A game in which they were supposed to be a lot more competitive folks. Now they step up in class again even higher. We all know how much Nick Saban likes beating ex-assistant coaches. And Jimbo Fisher is no different. Don’t overthink this contest guys. Texas A&M doesn’t belong on the same field as Alabama. The Crimson Tide need to keep their foot on the gas to retain their number one ranking. And one more factor that prompts me to side with ‘Bama here. The Aggies bested the Tide last year at home. Saban and his boys did not forget that. They will open up a big can of whoop ass here. Texas A&M is just 1-5 ATS the last six on the road. Alabama is 17-5 against the number the last 22 at home. Don’t be afraid to lay the wood here. Roll Tide. Take Alabama. Thank you.

NC State.

Consensus Play.

Game 336.

5:00 PM PST/8:00 PM EST.

My friends, both Florida State and NC State come off their first loss of the season. And if they weren’t playing one another here I would look for them to come back in “bounce-back” mode. Both offenses are pretty damn good. I would definitely say without a doubt, the Seminoles possess some bigger playmakers on their offensive unit. But it’s so hard to buck the Wolfpacks ferocious defense. They are equally tough against the pass and the run. And let’s face it, they wreak a lot of havoc against quarterbacks and create turnovers. They’ve already grabbed seven turnovers thus far in 2022. My own personal number on this game is closer to 5.5 or even 6.0. Florida State is 1-9-1 ATS the last 11 meetings at NC State. This team certainly has some issues covering the number on the road. For that reason, we are playing the home team here which is 12-4 ATS the last16 at Carter-Finley Stadium. But to err on the side of caution I would buy it down to -3. Take the Wolfpack. Thank you.

Washington State Cougars.

Touchdown Play.

Game 365.

4:30 PM PST/7:30 PM EST.

USC certainly deserves all their praise, starting the campaign off 5-0. However, their high-flying offense does not match up well with the Washington State defense. The Cougars rank among the nations leaders in sacks (18) and tackles for a loss (45). Washington State comes in here sporting a 4-1 straight up mark, covering their last four consecutive outings. This includes a big outright win at Wisconsin, thumping Colorado State at home, a very tight heartbreaking three-point loss once again at home against Oregon, and the last weeks very impressive 28-9 win and cover playing host against Cal. This team certainly has momentum and the confidence to stand up to the Trojans. By the way, USC has failed cover their last two games as PAC 12 opponents have given them a little bit of a headache the last few weeks. The very smart Cougars coaching staff have watched the game films the last few weeks and will in fact exploit the Trojans weaknesses. Washington State is 4-0 ATS the last four versus conference opponents, 5-2 ATS the last seven on the road, and 20-6 ATS the last 26 in the month of October. The Trojans are 1-7 ATS the last eight versus Pac 12 opponents, 2-5 ATS the last seven versus teams with a winning record, and 0-4 ATS the last four in the month of October. This is way too many points to give a very game, very scrappy Cougars team. Take Washington state. Thank you.

Air Force.

Crusher Play.

Game 361.

4:00 PM PST/7:00 PM EST.

Utah State is absolutely point spread poison. They are just 1-4 against the spread in 2022. And following four lackluster performances, they came up big a little over a week ago covering a 25.5-point spread, losing straight up by 12-points at BYU. They are in a huge “let down” mode here as they are facing an Air Force team that has won eight of their last nine overall straight up going back to last November. And seven of those last nine against the spread. The number one ranked rushing offense in the nation will absolutely steamroll the Aggie‘s 108th ranked run defense. Not only will the Falcons control the tempo and the clock, but they will keep the Aggies offense on the sidelines most of the game. When Utah State does have the ball, they will have to line up against the 16th ranked scoring defense in the nation. Air Force has taken five of the last seven in this series both straight up and against the spread and are 6-1 ATS the last seven on the road and 4-1 ATS the last five versus conference opponents. Take the Falcons. Thank you.

Nevada Wolfpack

MWC MONEY MAKER.

Game 308.

7:00 pm PT/10:00 pm ET.

My friends, there is no arguing the fact that both the Rams and the Wolfpack are in for a very long regular season. Currently Colorado state is 0-4 both straight up and against the spread, while Nevada is 2-3, also both straight up and against the spread. The Rams are losing by an average of 30+ points per game. I’m not going to sit sit here and tell you that playing teams like Michigan and Washington State that we were surprised by those lopsided defeats. But they were a favorite against Middle Tennessee State and got shellacked, as well as being a small underdog and getting decimated by Sacramento State. This team has no offense whatsoever. They average less than 11-points per game. As a matter fact, they rank at or near the worst in the nation and most offensive categories. To add insult to injury, they have coughed up the ball five times already. Now the Nevada defense has given us some points. And after a strong start with decisive victories over New Mexico State and Texas State, winning and covering both, they have now lost and failed to cover three in a row. I expected them to lose to Iowa and Air Force. But losing to Incarnate Word was a shocker to me (LOL). But one thing this team can do is create turnovers. They’ve already snagged seven turnovers on defense. Offensively they leave a lot to be desired. But when you’re facing a stop-unit that allows over 41 points per game, and you’ve only turned the ball over twice so far, I expect the Wolfpack to generate some points here. They’ve got a decent quarterback at the helm in Nate Cox. But I really do look for them to run the ball with an enormous success behind the legs off Toa Taua, Devonte Lee, and even the dual-threat quarterback, Cox. The Rams are 0-4 ATS the last four meetings in this series 0-6 ATS the last six against conference opponents, 0-5 ATS the last five on the road, and 1-10 ATS the last 11 overall. Let’s take the Wolfpack here folks. Thank you.

San Diego Padres.

Game 939.

5:07 pm pst/8:07 pm est.

Sports fans, over the course of this season I have spoken many times about, in my opinion, if the New York Mets had any heart whatsoever, they would’ve made more than one trip to the Fall Classic over the last decade. And should have walked away with at least one ring. This is a team that spent over 175 days in first-place in the competitive NL East. But yet when crunch time arose, they couldn’t get it done, finishing behind the Atlanta Braves. I’m not going to argue the fact that this team has a lot of talent. But having talent and accumulating victories during the regular season is much different than winning in the postseason. I do feel this series will be a very competitive series. However here in the opening game, I do feel they will fall short. They have a false sense of security, coming off a three-game sweep of the Washington Nationals to end the regular season. Prior to that, this team lost five of the last seven, as they struggled both at the plate and on the mound. On the other hand, the Padres did take two of three in their final series against the Giants. These two teams met six times in the 2022 regular season, with San Diego taking four of the six meetings. They are both throwing their best on the mound in the opener. Yu Darvish and Max Scherzer are getting the nod here in Game 1. While the Mets right-hander has solid career numbers against the Padres, he did take a loss in his only meeting this season against them back in the end of July. And when it comes to the playoffs, Max Scherzer is a mediocre, 7-6 with a 3.22 ERA in 26 playoff games, which includes 21 starts. On the other hand, the Padres right-hander, who has had enormous success against many teams in the MLB, but really has been unstoppable when facing the Mets. Darvish is 5-0 with a 2.56 ERA in eight starts against New York, which includes a which includes a 2-0 mark with a 0.64 ERA in two starts this season alone. Granted his postseason numbers are less than stellar, but he is a much different pitcher this season than in previous seasons. San Diego is 5-1 the last six games played on the road and 16-5 the last 21 games played following an off day. New York is 0-4 the last four versus teams with the winning record and 1-5 the last six playoff games. While I do think this will be a competitive series, the Padres will take Game 1. Take San Diego. Thank you.

Cleveland Guardians.

Game 946.

9:07 AM PST/12:07 PM EST.

Tampa Bay finished the regular season losing five straight games while Cleveland ended the campaign winning seven of their last 10. These two teams only met six times in 2022 as the Guardians took four of the six meetings. Not only did the Rays slump the last several weeks, but their offense was nonexistent. To add insult to injury, they’re pitching staff seemed to feel the fatigue of the long regular season. On the other hand, Cleveland did whatever it took to finish on a high-note. Both at the plate and on the mound, this team surged. Shane McClanahan and Shane Bieber are schedule starters in game 1 of this series. There is no arguing the fact that both starting pitchers put up very solid numbers during the regular season. Over his last three outings, the Tampa Bay left-hander went 0-3 with a whopping ERA of 7.07. Meanwhile, the Cleveland right-hander was a very impressive 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA over his last three appearances. Tampa Bay is 1-5 their last six playoff games, 1-6 the last seven playoff road games, 0-6 the last six games played versus RH starters, and 0-5 the last five overall games played on the road. Take Cleveland. Thank you.

Under in the Colts/Broncos matchup.

AFC Total of the Month.

Games 301/302.

5:15 pm PT/8:15 pm ET.

My friends, it’s no secret that both Indianapolis and Denver are struggling. Both teams had high expectations coming into the regular season. And yet they are combined 3-4-1 straight up thus far. Both offensive units rank amongst the worst in the league as the Colts average just 14.3 points per game and the Broncos average only 16.5 points per game. Neither unit has had any success on the ground. And let’s face it overall, they are both experiencing a nightmare the first quarter of this campaign. To add insult to injury, both offenses have coughed the ball up a combined 13 times already. It’s no secret that Indianapolis running back Jonathan Taylor is banged-up. As of posting this play, he is listed as questionable. It’s also no secret that Denver’s leading ball-carrier, Javonte Williams is out. But both defenses have played pretty well. Indy ranks 14th in the NFL allowing just 21.3 points per game while the Broncos rank sixth, yielding a mere 17.0 points per game. One more thing they both have in common folks, is the fact that they have combined to play seven unders in their eight total contests in 2022. As a matter of fact, going back a bit, Indianapolis has played to nine consecutive unders. And the Broncos have played to 11 unders over their last 15 outings. Here’s a few more under trends that confirm why we are going under the total here; Indianapolis has played under in five straight on the road and eighth straight against the AFC, while Denver has played to six unders over the last eight in Mile High and nine of the last 12 overall played on grass. This game goes under the total. Take the under. Thank you.

Los Angeles Rams.

MNF winner.

Game 279.

5:15 PM PST/8:15 PM EST.

All week long all I keep hearing about is how strong the San Francisco 49ers defense is. And granted, so far this season they are looking good, only allowing 12.3 points per game. However, folks, who have they played? They’ve gone up against the Chicago Bears, the Seattle Seahawks, and the Denver Broncos. Not one of those offenses is a powerhouse, let alone a mediocre squad. As a matter fact, all three of those units are struggling badly. So once again who have they faced? They must now go up against a Los Angeles Rams team that after a season opening embarrassing loss to the Buffalo Bills, rattled off two consecutive straight up wins against the Atlanta Falcons and the Arizona Cardinals. The 49ers have also had problems putting points on the board themselves. Outside of putting up 27-points against the Seahawks, they put up 10-points against the Bears and 10-points against the Broncos. These are two defensive squads that have gotten smoked against good solid well-balanced offenses so far this campaign. Now, San Francisco has covered five straight in the series. But, they were an underdog in all five of those meetings. Now the Rams come in here as the underdog. And guess what folks? The ‘dog has covered seven consecutive matchups in this rivalry. The Rams are money on Monday Night, covering four of the last five. And are very good against the NFC sporting a 31-15-1 against the spread mark the last 47 against the conference.  I think the wrong team is favored here. Los Angeles should be a field goal favorite for sure. And that is why we’re taking them tonight. Take the Rams. Thank you.

Atlanta Braves.

NL East Game of the Week.

Game 955.

3:40 PM PST/6:40 PM EST.

My friends, the Atlanta Braves can clinch their fifth straight NL East championship with one more victory. And trust me when I tell you, with the New York Mets just over their shoulder and facing the Washington Nationals this series, they want to do it sooner than later. They have dominated the Miami Marlins, taking eight straight meetings between the two division rivals. The Braves come into this matchup red-hot, winning seven of their last eight. Bryce Elder takes the hill on the road here. The right-hander is just 2-3 on the campaign. However, he has an anemic ERA of 2.76. And in his three starts against the Marlins in 2020, his ERA is just 1.53. The team has won three of his last four turns. And he comes off his best performance of the campaign, going nine full innings and blanking the Nationals, 8-0 a week ago. Jesus Luzardo gets the start at home. The left-hander is 3-7 with a 3.53 ERA on the campaign. He is making his fourth career start against Atlanta. And owns a 6.23 ERA in 13 innings in those starts. The team has dropped his last nine appearances. He has given up runs in each one of those outings. And at home on the campaign, he is 1-5 with a 4.95 ERA. Atlanta is 21-6 the last 27 during Game 1 of a series, 4-1 the last five on the road, 49-10 the last 59 versus teams with a losing record, and 38-16 the last 54 versus the National League East. Take the Braves. Thank you.

Denver Broncos.

Late Info Move.

Game 273.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST.

A lot of people out there in both the sports and the sports betting worlds feel that Las Vegas is due for a win. Well folks the “due for” factor only applies when you actually have some talent and some motivation. This team has neither. I know this team. I live here in southern Nevada. And I’ve watched several of their preseason games and I was in the stands for the debacle a few weeks ago when Arizona beat them in overtime. This team is not very talented. While there is some talent on the team, they have no organization. Their quarterback makes very bad decisions. And their coaches play calling is among the worst in the league right now. This is a team that has lost and failed to cover their last four games going back to last season. With a win here Denver can take hold of first place in the AFC West at least for a few hours. Because Kansas City, who is also tied with them at 2-1 in the division, has a very tough late-Sunday evening matchup against Tampa Bay. That game can go either way folks. So, the Broncos really have a chance of taking sole possession of first place in a very competitive division. Let’s face it, Denver played very competitively in their season opener in Seattle. Then came back to win the following two games against Houston and San Francisco at home. So far, this team has shown very little offensively. I’m not going to argue that fact. But when you’re playing a team that gives up nearly 26 points per game, your offense will to come to life. Trust me folks when I tell you that. One thing about this Broncos offense, they rarely turn the ball over. They have just three turnovers so far this season. But it will be their defense that will give them a win here this week. They have only allowed 12 points per game behind a very stingy stop-unit equally tough against the pass and the rush. The Raiders cannot run the ball at all. They own one of the worst rushing teams in the league, ranking 28th and averaging a dismal 80 yards per game on the ground. Any of their success comes in the air. And they must face the third ranked pass defense in football this week. The Broncos “D” will get to Carr and force mistakes from the shaky quarterback. The underdog is 7-1 ATS the last eight meetings in the series. Las Vegas is 3-7 ATS the last 10 versus the AFC, 2-7 ATS the last nine on grass, and 1-4 ATS the last five following an ATS loss. Take the Broncos. Thank you.

Buffalo Bills.

Touchdown Play.

Game 257.

10:00 am pst/1:00 pm est.

Sports fans, the Bills come off their first loss of the season as both their offense and defense looked out of sorts against the Dolphins last Sunday. It was the first time they looked to be outplayed in quite a while. They are now 2-1 and sit in second place in the division behind Miami. Well, Buffalo has to get back on track right now and make a statement. Not just a division, but to the rest of the AFC. And what better opponent to do that than Baltimore. News is that Lamar Jackson, through the first several games of the season is without a doubt the clear MVP. But who has he faced? The Jets, a loss to the Dolphins, and a banged-up Patriots squad. The last time these two teams faced one another, the Bills absolutely shut down Lamar Jackson, getting the win and cover 17-3 in January of 2021. I don’t think that will be a problem once again here as Buffalo owns one of the nastiest and most ferocious defenses in the NFL. They rank number one in total yards allowed, number two in passing yards allowed, number two in rushing yards allowed, number four in points scored, and already have snagged six takeaways. The Ravens have yet to face a defense like this. Especially getting this team off a loss, they’re going to come in here angry and motivated. On the flipside, Josh Allen who, let’s face it had a very subpar game last week, will be able to pass at will against the Ravens 32nd ranked pass defense. One thing for sure, Baltimore gives up a lot of points. This doesn’t bode well when you’re going up against the third ranked scoring offense in the NFL that averages over 30.3 points per game. Josh Allen will bounce back here and have one of his best games so far the season. And Buffalo will come out and make a statement that they are back on track. The Bills are 7-1-1 ATS the last nine following an ATS loss, 12-3-1 ATS the last 16 on field turf, and 6-2-1 ATS the last nine overall. Take Buffalo. Thank you.

Minnesota Vikings.

No Limit Play.

Game 251.

6:30 AM PST/9:30 AM EST.

With the NFC North currently in a three-team tie for first place, the Minnesota Vikings must put their foot on the gas immediately. And what better team to face than the struggling New Orleans Saints. New Orleans is 0-3 against the spread this season. They opened up the campaign with a one-point late win against Atlanta. Then they were humiliated at home by Tampa Bay. And then on the road in Carolina, they were so bad, they allowed the Panthers to stop their nine-game straight up and against the spread losing streak. Granted, Jameis Winston was certainly playing hurt. As of posting this play, his status is still undecided. If he plays, he is not going to be 100%. If he doesn’t, that means Andy Dalton will take the reins. Talk about picking the lesser of two evils (LOL). This is a team struggling to have any success on either side of the ball. On the other hand, Dalvin Cook is scheduled to play here. Look for the running back to run amok against the 26th ranked rushing defense of the Saints. Defensively, look for the Minnesota to completely shut down the struggling New Orleans offense. The Saints are 4-10 ATS the last 14 versus teams with a winning record. The Vikings are 10-1-1 ATS the last 12 on turf. Take Minnesota. Thank you.

West Virginia.

Touchdown Play.

Game 187.

4:30 PM PST/7:30 PM EST.

My friends, the oddsmakers are looking to trap you here. But we’re not going to fall for it, are we? There is no way Texas should be nearly a double-digit favorite over West Virginia. The Mountaineers have covered five of the last seven meetings with the Longhorns, including the last two matchups. These two teams seem to be heading in opposite directions. West Virginia has won and covered their last two including a big win at Virginia Tech in which they dominated the Hokies, 33-10. Meanwhile, Texas had somewhat of a tough time against UTSA two weeks ago then lost an overtime heartbreaker at Texas Tech last week. West Virginia can certainly keep pace offensively with Texas. There’s no doubt about that. The fact that they have a well-balanced offense consisting of the 20th ranked rushing attack in the nation along with the 48th right passing attack, tells me they can and will control the tempo and the clock in this matchup. On the flipside, they own a very stingy defense. And they match up well with the Texas offense. Neither team can really afford another conference loss. But I believe the Longhorns are going to start to spiral as they dropped out of the top-25 this week. This is a team that certainly knows how to slump. Just last season, after starting their campaign 4-1, they then dropped six consecutive meetings both straight up and against the spread. I think another slump is on the horizon for Texas. The Longhorns are 1-7 ATS the last eight against conference opponents, 2-5 ATS the last seven following a straight up loss, and 2-7-1 ATS the last 10 in October. Take the Mountaineers. Thank you.

NC State Wolfpack.

Late Bail Out.

Game 127.

4:30 PM PST/7:30 PM EST.

After they opened their campaign thumping Georgia Tech 41-10, Clemson supporters thought they would have an easy run to the ACC title. While this team is 4-0 straight up, they have failed to cover their last three in a row. And let’s face it when you’re playing teams like Furman, Louisiana Tech, for sure and maybe even Wake Forest, you should be covering. Something interesting I have uncovered about the Tigers. Each week they have allowed more points than the previous week. They started the season allowing 10, then 12, then 20, and then 45 points. Teams are exploiting their weaknesses. And one team that can certainly exploit their weakness, is the Wolfpack. Devon Leary is a monster quarterback. He also has the luxury of having a backfield of talented and capable ball-carriers. They can run the ball, control the clock, and keep the Clemson defense on the field. On the flipside, they own one of the nastiest and stingiest stop-units in the nation. They rank 10th in points allowed, ninth against the rush, 25th against the pass, 13th in total yards allowed, and have already snagged seven takeaways. Clemson does have a good defense. But they’re not the same team they once were. As I mentioned earlier, they’re allowing more and more points every opponent they face. While they are good against the rush, they are absolutely deplorable against the pass. They’re yielding over 267 yards per game in the air alone, which ranks them 104th versus the pass. Leary is going to exploit and dissect them in the air. NC State took last year’s meeting in overtime, 27-21. They’re also 5-2 ATS the last seven meetings at Clemson. Here’s a few more against the trends for you. The Wolfpack are 11-5 ATS the last 16 versus conference opponents, 5-2 ATS the last seven versus teams with a winning record, and 6-0 ATS the last six following an ATS loss. The Tigers are 4-9 ATS the last 13 following a straight up win, 1-5 ATS the last six in October, and 2-8 ATS the last 10 at home. Take NC State. Thank you.

Wake Forest.

Consensus Game of the Month.

Game 123.

12:30 PM PST/3:30 PM EST.

Don’t put too much stock to the fact that the Seminoles are undefeated and ranked. They played two deplorable opponents. And they also beat two teams that they should’ve beat in LSU in Louisville. Let’s face it, neither the Tigers nor the Cardinals are the teams that people thought they would be this season. On the other hand, Wake Forest is coming off their first defeat of the season. Not only was it a loss, but it was an overtime heartbreaking loss to Clemson. Can you say “bounce back?” Granted, their previous opponents were less than stellar. I’m not going to argue that fact. I look for Sam Hartman to light up the scoreboard here. The quarterback has already amassed 962 yards passing, on a 64% completion rate, with 13 TD’s and just two INT‘s. He has a backfield of two solid ball-carriers in Justice Ellison and Christian Turner. They have rushed for a combined 361 yards on the ground with three TD’s. This well-balanced offense will keep the Florida State defense on the field. The Demon Deacons have won and covered each of the last two meetings in this series. The Seminoles are 11-23-3 ATS the last 37 versus teams with a winning record. Take Wake Forest. Thank you.

Kentucky.

SEC Game of the Month.

Game 175.

9 AM PST/12 PM EST.

My friends, if the line in this game was totally accurate, Mississippi should only be a one or a two-point favorite at most. Throw into the mix that Kentucky will see the return of running back, Chris Rodriguez and they become a small favorite here. That’s right, their best ball-carrier in years will come back after serving a four-game suspension. If you recall a year ago, between the regular and postseasons, the RB accumulated over 1300 yards and 10 TD’s on the ground. And now that the Wildcats have a running game to go with their stellar passing-attack, they are one of the most dangerous teams in the conference. I understand the Rebels have a good defense. But they haven’t faced anybody yet. So far, their opponents have been Troy, Central Arkansas, Georgia Tech, and Tulsa. Not one of those were they not a double-digit favorite. They are in for a rude awakening here stepping up in class big time. On the flipside, Kentucky does have a solid defense. Let’s face it, they kept quite a few offenses in check this season and going back a bit, since last season. I doubt Mississippi will have any luck in the air against the 15th ranked pass defense in the country. The Rebel strength offensively comes through running the ball. And that doesn’t bode well here as the Wildcats only allow 108.3 yards per game on the ground. The wrong team is favored here my friends, trust me. Kentucky is 23-7-2 ATS the last 32 versus teams with a winning record, 7-3-1 ATS The last 11 versus conference opponents, and 5-1-1 ATS the last seven overall.  Take the Wildcats. Thank you.