#709 - Cleveland +8.5 to 9

I think Cleveland makes a stand.  They can get physical and make this a game tonight, not sure if they can win, but I expect a high scoring game and James to have a huge night.  Nothing comes easy and a spread like this, in a Game 5 when a team faces elimination is too many.

Play 1 Unit on Cleveland 

UNDER 228 Cavs / Warriors  *9 EST 

Enough written about these two over and over, we all know the drill, Golden State with scorers all over the place, Cavs a more than a few of their own, a rabid pace and 3 pointers flying everywhere.  Cleveland has NO chance to win if they allow a rabid pace in this one and Golden State does hit the boards and play defense, I think this will be slower paced.  This line has shot way up from previous game. 

Play 1 Unit on the Under

#705 - Golden State -3  *9 EST Wednesday

If you have not been paying attention, the addition of Durant to an already loaded roster with revenge has the Warriors dominating everyone including King James. No team has an answer - None.  Cleveland has NO answer and that has been on displays and apparently have absolutely no defense as well, but that is not news.  Golden State may have the best Roster ever in the NBA right now, undefeated in the post season and Killing everyone.  They also recall having a 2-0 lead last year and losing to the Cavs in this series and they have stated from the top they are not letting off the throttle at any point in this series.  Cleveland at home makes no difference to me, and for a team who had their ass whipping in every phase of the game and getting pounded by double digits only  getting 3 is a trick line, because while the venue changes, it is what it is on the floor, Cleveland may not win a game here and to the surprise of no one.

Play 2 Units on Golden State 

#703/704  Over 220.5 Cavs / Warriors Game 2 Sunday  *8 EST

The Warriors laying 9 scares me a bit but the Cavs know if they go down 0-2 they have a 14% chance of winning the series based on the fact that is the percentage in NBA history of teams down 0-2 in the finals.  Cleveland shot terrible in game 1 (36% from the floor), turned it over 20 times and allowed 56 points in the paint, and the scary thing is the Warriors did not shoot that well and still managed 113 points.  Both teams pull out all the stops here, offense on display.  Golden State had 5 straight Overs until the last game which I had the under, however teams will be looser and shoot better in Game 2.  Warriors have scorers 5 deep on the floor and 3 more on the bench and Cleveland has no answer for Durant. 

Play 1 Unit on the OVER 

#701/702 - UNDER 223.5 to 224 Cavs / Warriors *9 EST 

Golden State plays a good brand of defense. Better than most realize.  Both teams well rested so the defense will play well.  9 out of the last 10 times these two met, none of those totals exceeded this total but one time.  Durant on James should contain him.  Both teams will be tight early on as well. 

Play 1 Unit on the Under 

Celtics +10 to 10.5

I think Cleveland wins this game and no doubt the Celtics will have to run on pure adrenaline here, but at days end the fight the Celtics put up on their home floor as a #1 seed as they face elimination should be a good one.  Catching double digits on your home floor with no one expecting you to make a stand is good locker room material, and Cleveland at times can fall asleep at the wheel in the getaway car.  Boston has done a commendable job without Thomas in the lineup and can score in excess of 100 points without him, and bear in mind Stevens in the better coach of the two teams.  Custer's last stand so to speak, forget the stats and trends, Boston will try to gut this out and make a game of it and catching this many points at home with their season on the line is too good to pass up.  Last time I took Boston I got my ass handed to me, but I feel they are the best option tonight.

Play 1 Unit on Boston.  

#505 -506 - Over 217.5 Cavs / Celtics  *8:30 EST 

Let’s look at this scenario tonight.  The Celtics scored 111 without their floor general and leading scorer Thomas in the last game on the ROAD!  Cleveland has not played defense all season and just decided to outscore everyone as their benchmark.  The Cavs blew a huge lead in Game 3 and LeBron was a no show and they still managed 108 points with the best player in the NBA taking a nap.  Enough said.  Expect James and the Cavs to have a big night and for Boston to pull out all the stops.

Play 1 Unit on the Over 

#725 /726 - OVER 217.5 to 218  Spurs / Warriors 

No time for writeup on Monday - Play 1 Unit - I expect plenty of scoring guys.

Play 1 Unit

# 503 / 504 - UNDER 215 Cleveland / Boston  *8:30 EST 

11 out of the last 16 games in this series has went Under, and despite the Cavs scoring 130 points the last game went under as well.  Floor General and scorer Thomas out for Boston, Cleveland should roll along along here and Boston;s only chance is to play as good as defense as they can because their scoring ability is hampered greatly with the guy who makes their offense work.

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER 

#723 - Golden State -6.5   *9 EST

Well I made the mistake on Friday of taking the Celtics who have shown everyone oin Game 1 there were outmanned, and itr cost me.  I will not make the same mistake twice.  Bottom line is without Parker at Point Guard and Leonard, who is the best player on the Spurs roaster, either doubtful or way less than 100%, the Spurs are playing this series with 1 arm tied behind their back.  Yeah coach Pop is a great coach, but when your talent level and bench cannot match up to an opponent, this late in the playoffs, you are toast.  Have no illusions, Golden State is watching the Cleveland / Boston series closely and they no doubt think Cleveland will sweep as do I, and they also want to get out of this series in 4 games and rest up, they will show up here.

Play 1 Unit on Golden State 

#502 - Celtics +5.5   830 EST

I was all over the Cavs for a Top Play in Game 1, but now that the Celtics, who roared back in Game in 1 to make it halfway respectable, have a do or die situation here as home court is something they need to protect here tonight to have ANY chance of playing this series out.  They are the #1 seed at home down 0-1.  While I am unsure as good as Cleveland is playing, they are due for a loss and Boston will play better after a short rest and wake up call after battling Washington so hard to get here, they flat out were not at their best in Game 1 and I think they bring it in game 2 here with Thomas playing better and a better team effort.  Stevens is a good coach, better than the Cavs coach and he should dial it in tonight.  I expect a tight game and will grab the home dog here and go against the public.  

Play 1 Unit on Boston 

#721- Cleveland -4   *8:30 EST

There is something to be said about time off versus a team who has ben playing and are in sync, but the comparison ends there.  Cleveland was a 23 point winner over Boston back in early April and the are rested, have the best player in the NBA and are hungry for the finals againsyt no doubt Golden State.  Boston spent a ton of energy against Washington to get here and I think LeBron and the boys cover this with ease out of the gate and I like their road record in the post season.

Play 2 Units on Cleveland

Over 209.5 Washington  / Boston

Both teams will pull out all the stops after a rough game in game 6 shooting-wise.  Washington was 5 for 24 and Boston was 11 for 35 from 3 point range.  Both teams have backcourts than can and will do better.  This line was as high as 219 in this series and also this is a 6 point adjustments after the low scoring game 6.  Side Play too close to call, but like a shootout here with the Conference Finals on the line.

Play 1 Unit on the Over. 

#502 - Golden State -10  *3:30 EST

Well Las Vegas oddsmakers BEGGING YOU to take these points.  A ton of points for a conference final.  There is a reason. Public and many sharps on Spurs, not me.   Leonard not 100% and the Warriors Green will neutralize him.  Warriors have shooters all over the floor, at home and well rested.  The Spurs impressive blowout win over Houston where Harden never got off the bus and looked like dog crap makes you foam at the mouth to take this number, but I am not buying it.  Everyone has known all season long it was simply an exhibition season until Cleveland meets Golden State which no doubt will happen, and I am willing to lay it as Golden State makes a statement here against a tired and wounded Spurs team without any star power at point guard with Parker out, and it shows against this team.

Play 1 Unit on Golden State

#711 /712 - OVER 216 Boston / Washington  *8 EST

Have no doubts as the game was 224 and Washington played like dog crap in an embarrassing loss.  4-1 on the overs the last 5, this will be a shootout - Short and Sweet today.  Both teams should be well over 100+ here.  The Wiz will pull out all the stops here.

Play 1 Unit on the Over. 

Washington +4.5

Home court becomes less of a factor this deep into any series, and I think this is a down to the wire game.  The team that wins game 5 in a toed series like this is an 80% of the time winner of the entire series so a ton on the line.  John Wall for Washington has stunk it up the last 2 games.  15 out of 44 shots and the Wizards won by a combined point total in those 2 games of 46 points?  WOW.  Also the Wizards have figured out how to shut down Thomas, last game just 3 total shots in the second half.

Play 1 Unit on Washington. 

UNDER 214.5 to 215 - Houston / San Antonio

Look with Parker out the Spurs are having issues with guard scoring and this is a HUGE game for the series and a turning point for one of these teams nightlight and I expect a disciplined game out of the Spurs and for them to play fundamental defense that they tend to do at home.  Doubt Houston makes 19 three pointers here tonight.

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER 

#515 - Spurs ++5.5

No time for writeup today - too many points for the Rockets - Spurs flat out bettereven without Parker.

Play 1 Unit on San Antonio

OVER 208 - Jazz / Warriors 

Play 1 Unit on the over gents - Short on time today but I expect both teams to eclipe 100+ tonight and Golden State is simply unstoppable.  Jazz should shoot well at home.

Play 1 Unit on the Over.

Cavs -2 (Open line on Thursday it will go up)  Good to -4 in my opinion)

Look Cleveland blew out the Raptors by double digits on the road last year in the playoffs, have waxed them twice and nothing changes in my mind.  LeBron a 1 man wrecking crew and the offense of the Cavs is on fire.  They are 10 points better than Toronto anywhere on the road, this line is DIRT FREAKING CHEAP at a bucket or 3 pointer- despite Lue not being the best coach in this series, Cleveland simply has their number and with the better team by numerous points, laying a small number with the best player in the NBA in the post season is always a take.  I am drinking the ikool aid here without hesitation. Cavs on a roll. 

Play 3 Units on the Cavs 

#507 - Utah Jazz +12.5  *10:30 EST

Look no doubt the Warriors are the better team, but not by a landslide.  Utah is sneaky good, can score and have played Defense well, and held the Warriors, off a brutal 7 games series on tired legs to 10 points below their 5 game average on offense in the last game.  The number is 1 point lower at the open here than the last game which Utah barely covered.  Golden State wins, but it will not come easy and this is a shit load of points in the second round of the post season.  Utah 6-0 ATS their last 6 roadies. 

Play 1 Unit on Utah

#733 - Houston +5.5  *9:35 EST 

If you are going zig zag theory on this game I think you are wring.  San Antonio is old and slow no matter how well coached,  and got their ass kicked BADLY as a favorite in the last game at home, and the team that hammered them, with arguably the NBA’s MVP. only having 20 points in the process!  Houston has covered and won SU their last 6 playoff games at San Antonio, no other team can make that claim, and while I see the Spurs making a supreme effort here no doubt, laying 5.5 to 6 points against a team that shit hammered you by 27 2 days ago is too many, as Houston is for real gents, and can score with anyone in the NBA.

Play 1 Unit on Houston 

#503 / 504 - UNDER 207  Warriors / Jazz  *10:30 est

The defense of the Jazz is key in this, and the fact they will be without Favors tonight and perhaps if he does play it will not be at 100% by  any means.  The last 4 in this series has went Under the number, and 13 out of the last 1 in Golden State in this series has went under.  Golden State off 8 days of rest and the Jazz off a brutal  game series.   Look for Utah to slow it down a bit and put their defense to work.  Golden State loaded I know but I do not see Utah breaking a 100 here tonight and GS can also play some defense as well, as they can be sneaky good on D. 

Play 1 Unit on the Under 

#724 - Cleveland -6.5  *7:05 EST

Shit or get of the pot for the well rested Cavs.  They dominated Toronto last year laying huge numbers in the playoff series and covering them, and I think at home the Cavs will make a statement out of the gate, as they were winning by the skin of their teeth against Indiana.  Toronto's front-court will be troublesome for the Cavs no doubt but I do see in Game 1 a supreme effort from the Cavs.  Lets of stats point towards the Raptors, Cleveland was barely winning games and this number should be lower to the naked eye, but oddsmakers are begging you to take the Raptors here, I am going contrarian...too easy to take Toronto here and think it is an easy money deal.

Play 1 Unit on Cleveland 

Washington +4.5   *1:05 EST 

Chicago lost their mojo with their best guard out, No such luck with John Wall around and the Wizards are my pick to challenge in the title game for the Eastern Conference all along.  Boston got a break against Chicago, I like the Wizards chances here of a SU Win with a hot backcourt.

Play 1 Unit on Washington 

#509 / 510 - UNDER 204 Bulls / Celtics  *8 EST

Chicago HAS to play the good defense they are known for tonight or they lose.  Boston has not been shooting all that well either.  This is a HUGE game and I expect both to be tight tonight and play it close to the vest.  The Bulls offense is also hampered without Rondo.

Play 1 Unit on the Under

#505/506-  UNDER 19.5 Griz / Spurs  930 EST 

The last game they ended on 219.  Memphis is not playing the defense they are known for and will pull out all the stops on offense to avoid elimination tonight.  They Spurs will gun it all night and try to seal the series.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER 

#712 - Boston -7.5   *8:30 EST 

Chicago Done, Rondo done, Boston has not won a game at home in this series and just blew the doors off the dejected Bulls in both games.  Bulls done, they will throw it in early, expect Boston to ROLL.  Also Hoiberg cannot coach in the NBA if you haven’t noticed!

Play 1 Unit on Boston

Bucks +6

Too many here as the Bucks have been a thorn in the side of the Raptors and the Raptors hit and miss offense is not reliable enough to lay big points, and trust me 6 or more is big points in the NBA especially post season.

Play 1 Unit on Milwaukee 

#509 / 510 - Cavs / Pacers OVER 212.5   *1 EST 

I took the Over int he last game and while this may seem like a slow the pace and try and hang to save out life game for the Pacers - Cleveland plays no defense and again will just try and outscore you, especially late.  All games have went over and oddsmakers are slow to adjust this line raising it just 2 points from the last total and these 2 are flying over the total. 5-1 on the Over the last 6 times and expect Cleveland to open it up and try and close this out today.

Play 1 Unit on the Over

BONUS HALF UNIT PLAY -  Boston -2.5 *6:30 EST (Rondo out is a huge deal for the Bulls - Like Celtics to even it up in a lower scoring slugfest) 

#505 - Spurs -3.5  *8 EST

Off a loss I LOVE the Spurs to bounce back here HUGE.  They dropped their guard in Game 3 after 2 dominating performances and there are few teams as good on the road as San Antonio.  I expect them to open up the scoring here and DOMINATE this game.  I have seen this time and time again over the years, a clear cut favorite and higher seed who can name the score play a lazy game.  San Antonio out-stats Memphis in almost every category and surely will be coached up by Coach Pop in this one, no brainer blowout in my opinion as the Spurs reassert themselves and they want to get out of this series ASAP and rest up for round 2, no more going through the motions.  Parker was scoreless in Game 3, expect a big day from him as well. 

Play 2 Units on San Antonio - TOP PLAY 

#715 - Boston -1.5 to 2  *7 EST 

Statement Game folks.  #1 seed and down 0-2 and the Bulls without Rondo.  Boston has had time to reflect, gather their poise, Thomas time to get over grieving his sister and this game is do or die with the best team in the East  (according to records anyway) to step up and make a statement. Boston has the players and coaching here to get over Chicago on the road.  You stat look at this, trend look at this all you want and it favors Chicago, but I have seen this scenario (well not a #1 seed down 0-2 to #8 but you get my drift), many times over my 25 years of capping games, and sometimes you flat out go with your gut and Boston will leave nothing to chance in this game, and put it all on the floor tonight bar none.  Worth the stretch with just a 3 pointer to cover despite the Bulls defense which has been outstanding.  Look for Boston to hit the boards hard and reduce turnovers. 

Play 1 unit on Boston

Over 210-.5 Cavs / Pacers

Indiana will pull out all the stops at home here and Cleveland plays no defense so they will counter punch on offense instead.  Both games have went over the total in this series and oddsmakers after a 228 point output in game 2 have adjusted the total a half point from the last game which was 210.  These two are averaging 225 on offense their last 5 combined and allowed 220.

Play 1 Unit on the Over.

BONUS PLAY:  Spurs in late game -3.5  HALF UNIT  

#702 - Washington -5  *7 EST

Wiz already cleaned their clocks once on the road and Atlanta a horrific road team especially in the post season.  Washington better, backcourt better, home court strong.  I know dogs dominated yesterday and you have the much publicized zig zag approach to playoff betting however Washington should roll here big.

Play 1 Unit on Washington 

Jazz +9

Clippers all over the place and too inconsistent, and the Jazz did a hell of a job in the second half game 1 on defense, even without their big guy in the lineup, and LA simply is not 9 points better than the Jazz gents. Tight game all the way, value in the number.

Play 1 Unit on Utah  

#518 - Cavs -8   *7 EST

Short and Sweet - Took Indiana on Saturday and cashed them but this is the game Cleveland opens up a can of whoop ass.  They blew a 10 point 4th quarter lead and played shoddy down the stretch.  Think this is the game they put it all together.  Indiana gave them their best shot and still failed, that will deflate them in game 2, seen it a million times in the post season.

Play 1 Unit on Cleveland 

#513 - Chicago +6 to 6.5  *6:30 EST 

Boston while being well coached and the #1 seed in the east still lacks good defense and that brings big points into play.  As you saw Saturday outside of the Spurs kicking ass, was the 3 other dogs covering and one winning outright.  These 2 Split the regular season 2-2 but Da Bulls still remember a 20 point whipping they took last month and with their offense scoring over 100 ppg and their defense playing lights out late in the season I will grab the points here.

Play 1 Unit on the Bulls 

#501- Indiana +8.5 to 9   *3 EST 

Cleveland limped in here losing 4 straight, and are a mess in my opinion.  Indiana won their last 5 games, covered their last 6 in a row and have no pressure on them while the world awaits Cleveland to snap out of it and magically appear as unbeatable with King James leading the charge.  They have no defense, which brings big points into play and I will gladly take a hungry Pacer team to make a good showing here against a team who gave up 100 ppg in their last 5 games they were trying to win. 

Play 1 Unit on Indiana

ON SALE A DIRT CHEAP NBA PLAYOFF PACKAGE - Check it out.... 

Brooklyn +11

The Celtics have been playing piss poor and Thomas is the only one producing on a consistent basis.  the Nets 11-11 the last 22 SU and playing with purpose and fire and won't lay down.  All the pressure on Boston as they try to get the #1 seed, things do not come easy this time of the year.

Play 1 Unit on Brooklyn 

#503 - Cleveland -2   *3:35 EST 

The Hawks embarrassed the Cavs in their last game this is payback and possible for the #1 seed in the East as Cleveland in a dogfight with Boston for the top spot.  Expect all starters from the Cavs here and a supreme effort at a low number I find value with the Best team in the east despite their recent woes.

Play 2 Units on Cleveland 

#703 - Boston -1.5 to 2  *6:00 EST

Celtics playing for #1 seed against a team they are 7-1 ATS the last 8.  4-0 SU  / ATS the last 4.  With Cleveland losing Friday this is a huge game and no one on Boston, even though they have been so/so the past week, is overlooking this game as Boston is playing for everything and the Hornets playing for nothing.  The Celtics recent form has this number low and ripe for the taking in my opinion.

Play 1 Unit on Boston. 

#709 - Bulls -3.5   *8:05 EST Tip 

The Bulls are hot and the Knicks could care less.  Have you see the Knicks the play?  They have thrown it in and do not play hard for their coach and total mess.  That time of the season when teams in the playoffs hunt bring it and others do not.  That is the case here.

Play 1 Unit on Da Bulls

#517 - Bulls +6.5  *6:05 EST Tip

Both teams surging, Pelican 8-3 SU run and the Bulls won 4 out of 5 and beat the Cavs in their last game.  I like this game to be a good game tonight and the Bulls to hang within the large number here.  Chicago has won the last 5 in this series SU and won by 8 at home earlier this season.  Chicago also has the better defensive team here and Butler has been been solid for them and a huge playmaker down the stretch. The Bulls are 7-1 ATS their last 8 trips here and are 4-0 ATS on the road against teams with a winning record their last 4 times.

Play 1 Unit on Chicago 

#709 - Houston Pk to -1   ** *10:35 EST

Do not let this line fool you - good value here with the better team and the NBA's MVP playing well in the Rockets Harden.  This line is low due to Houston's loss to Golden State and the fact the Blazers, who I won with on Monday, are red hot.  Have no illusions, Houston is a beast on the road, 6-1 ATS their last 7 road games and the road team in this series is 11-5 ATS!  Nice trends, but trends do not win games, teams do, and Portland gets a dose of reality tonight in what should be an absolute shootout.  You are getting the better team here at less than a 2 point shot with the best player in the league arguably, and they are off a loss.

Play 1 Unit on Houston   

#774 - Portland -1.5  10 EST 

Yes a public play but the Blazers are 11-3 SU in March and kicking ass right now and they just tied the Nuggets for the 8th playoff spot, and at home the Blazers are approaching this as a playoff game.  In the NBA when you get a team in a spot where you KNOW they are going to show up, they are always worth a take, especially at home and especially laying a low number.

Play 1 Unit on Portland  

#507 - Milwaukee +4  *7:05 EST 

Yeah line stinks but drinking the Kool aid here guys.  Memphis has done lineup changes and played like absolute dog crap and now they turn it around against a red hot Bucks team?  Yep, that’s the NBA but I do like the Bucks to continue to climb up the Playoff chart and continue their good play here.  Bucks defense playing outstanding against a struggling offense and team with chemistry issues.

Play 1 Unit on Milwaukee 

#827 - Cleveland -3  *7 EST 

Kyle Korver will be motivated tonight as the Hawks traded him to Cleveland.  That said the Cavs are in a foul mood after losing to Boston on Hump Day and have dropped 2 out of 3 and come in here motivated, and now have Williams in house after the trade deal and I expect James, Irving and Kyle to have a solid night and a motivated team to win by 8 points here.  Cavs playing with revenge as the one time they played Atlanta, they got beat on their home floor. 

Play 2 Units on Cleveland

Toronto -3 to 3.5

Look the Knicks play no defense, their defense the last 5 games has been embarrassing allowing 113 ppg, while the Raptors have stepped up their defense in the same timeframe allowing just 99 ppg.  The Knicks have a 3-7 run going and one of those wins was against Philly.  I have a 6 point overlay here on Power Numbers.

Play 1 Unit on Toronto 

Utah -3

Play against the Bucks after 3 straight wins when they are at home the following game.  The record is 19 Wins and 49 Losses since 1996 - WOW.  Add in the fact the Jazz's defense is 10 ppg better on the season and this trend and I am on the better team in Utah.

Play 1 Unit on Utah

#703 - Celtics +1  *8 EST 

Wrong team favored - The Bulls last 5 Games – They have scored 99 ppg and allowed 111 ppg on defense.  Not the winning recipe against Boston who has won 4 straight, they are 11-1 their last 12 and Thomas has been on fore.  I am taking the hot team here to close out the 1st of the of the season before the All Star break with a win.  Better coach for Boston as well.

Play 1 Unit on Boston 

#861 - Indiana +5   *8 EST

Both teams surging but I like the play of the Pacers right now who won both trips in here last year.  Washington off back to back OT games.  One of those OT games was Brooklyn after a tough loss to the Cavs, and both teams were on nice runs and both recently lost to the Cavs.  A ton of good guards in this game, should be high scoring (total over looks tasty but passing) however Indiana can score with anyone and despite the Cavs big score against them they held their previous 4 opponent’s to 96 points or less which pushes me their way.

Play 1 Unit on Indiana 

Under 211 Knicks and Hawks - *3:30 Est

Amazingly the Over cashed in every single NBA game on Saturday, WOW.  Atlanta is 8-2 on Unders the last 10 games, and play good defense at home and the Knicks offense is iffy at best and Rose is out for this game as well.  I do not see this going much over 200.  My power rating is 204.5, that is a huge overlay against the spread here.  In the Knicks last 26 games, only 7 have went Over the total.

Play 1 Unit on the Under 

LA Lakers +13

While the Jazz have been on a hot run, they have played a brutal and busy schedule and even though LA played and covered in Portland last night, I am not laying 13 points with a team whose offense does not even average 100 ppg.  

Play 1 Unit on the Lakers to cover the number. 

#513 - Golden State -10  *8 EST 

Curry back in home state, off a loss, Golden State clearly the better team and although the last game of a road trip, I have the feeling, based on numerous things that Charlotte gets crushed here and they play better defense than they did against Miami, which has been publicly stated.

Play 1 Unit on Golden State

Under 238 - Golden State  - Houston

This line is flat out inflated and there is a reason GS scores a ton at home, they shoot well in their house no doubt, but they are 1-10 ATS on Overs their last 11 on the road.  Harden - Curry - Durant are garnering a lot of respect in this one and the huge score in the last meeting was an OT game.  

Play 1 Unit on the Under 

Cleveland +8

You going to give me this many with the best team in the NBA, or at least one of the best, the second best or best team is who they are playing.  Good number here as Cleveland was stinking it up last week, but they got back on track on offense scoring 120 against the Kings and LeBron and company get complacent in certain scenario's, they will not here tonight and it should be a good game, as they have had the Warriors number.....no secret there.

Play 1 Unit on Cleveland  

#717 / 718 - OVER 211 Cleveland / Sacramento  *10:30 EST 

We are catching a pissed off Cavs team coming off back to back losses here and sputtering on offense in those 2 losses (86 and 92 points), despite averaging 101 ppg in their last 5.  Also this is the Cavs 5th road game in a row since the 6th of this Month so I expect their defense to be weary here and allow the Kings, who are off a big win against Detroit, to score 100+ and for Cousins to continue his stellar play.  Look for King James and company to put it up tonight on the scoreboard as they will be dialed in to improve their offense against a team giving up  107 ppg their last 5.  Also the Cavs put up a 120 in each of the last 2 times they played the Kings.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER 

Bucks -2.5

Numerous Players, Sharp Player sin Vegas took the Bucks against the Knicks tyonight - I am jumping on board as one sharp bettor in Vegas did a max bet at a book and I know about it.  That said, the Knicks have dropped 5 straight and as usual are a mess, and have lost 8 out of 10 and their defense is deplorable.  Bucks have the better defense and better wing players as well.

Play 1 Unit on Milwaukee

Golden State -3 to 3.5

The Warriors are playing with some real revenge here guys, NBA Finals loss, where they dropped 3 straight to Cleveland to lose.  I also am not sold on the Cavs even at home here, they needed OT to beat both Milwaukee and Brooklyn of all people in their last game.  The defense of Golden State in their last 5 games is 10 ppg better than Cleveland and the Warriors have not lost a game in 24 days!   I think the Warriors exact some revenge here and it will be interesting to see the dynamic that Durant brings to the table in this match up that GS did not have last year.  

Play 1 Unit on Golden State 

Charlotte +7

Almost the same exact stats and we all know the Hornets can score lights out.  More PPG, better on defense, turnovers, rebounds and a deeper bench.

Play 1 Unit on Charlotte 

OK City -3

No Russell for LA tonight with a bum knee.  I like Westbrook and company to come in here and outscore the Lakers, who have given up 113 ppg their last 5 games, and while they have been scoring a big piece of that is out tonight.

Play 1 Unit on OK City 

#515 - Raptors -3 to 3.5   *9:05 EST

Short and Sweet, while neither play defense Toronto heads and shoulders above the Nuggets whose only win in the last week and half was against lowly Phoenix.  Raptors dropped 2 against Cavs and Warriors in back to backs, they get back on track here.  Nuggests getting pounded by good teams.

Play 1 Unit on Toronto

#513 - Golden State -5.5 to  -6  *8:05 EST 

This line is going up bet it ASAP.  The Raptors blew their brains out last night trying to beat the Cavs and GS rolls in here on a 2 days rest after winning their last 4 games by  10, 21, 24 and 13.  The Warriors have caught their stride and against a tired defense allowing 107 their last 5 games I like them to blowout the Raptors tonight.  And when I mean tired Toronto is playing their 4th game in 6 days.

Play 1 Unit on Golden State   

#506 -  Memphis -2.5 to 3   *9 EST 

No doubt this line will go up.  Love the Griz at home who have dumped 2 straight games and have 3 days off after this game, and Denver off a 16-point win against a good Boston team now are an underdog?  It is the Nuggets 5th straight road game and 4th game in 56 days and I love to fade a team on a long road trip towards the end, and they are playing a team motivated to go into a small break with a win, and a team who has covered 7 out of their last 10 at home.  Bear in mind that big win over Boston that Denver had, 2 Boston starters were out.

Play 1 Unit on Memphis 

#513 . 514  - OVER 206.5 to 207  Cavs / Warriors  *8 EST

Any doubts about this?  Both teams have scorers all over the floor, LeBron has had 82 points the last 2 games, and I expect Curry and company to go ballistic at home tonight on the scoreboard.  This is not going to be a defensive battle, and Golden State doesn’t play any right now and of course the Warriors will play better at home.  I also expect a VERY confident Cavs team to keep pace and continue to spread it around and let King James do his thing and take over if need be. 

Play 1 Unit on the OVER

BONUS half Unit – Cleveland +4.5 to 5 

Thanks for all your NBA business this season, I appreciate it gents.  TG 

#511 - Golden State +2.5  *9 EST 

Look, Golden State since 2014 has been the best team ATS after a loss to cover the next game, and also have the highest number in point differential in the final score in that same time-frame when covering the next game off a loss.  Another issue is LeBron and Kyrie has a great performance with over 40 each to win Game 5, they will not have that same performance tonight and conversely NBA MVP Curry sucked from 3 point range, and I doubt the scoring duo of Golden State shoots that badly again.  Yeah, home court, but GS beat them in here last year and drank the Champagne and I say they do it again.  Deeper bench for GS counts big this deep onto the series, Green is back with a Vengeance, and Kerr has stressed since the ass kicking in the last game that defense will be a focal point tonight for the Warriors, and if Curry and Thompson get going, and Green does his thing, I think the Cavs are doomed.  Whole world betting Cleveland and the line not moving, do the math.

Play 1 Unit on Golden State.

IF this play is right, the NBA season is over and I want to thank you for your Pro Hoops business this year.  Not my best year but we finished decent.  I look forward to NFL. NCAA Football in a couple of months and hope to see you then, and of course MLB is selective but highly profitable right now.  TG 

#509 / 510

OVER 204.5 to 205  Cavs Warriors

Golden State at home will pull out all the stops, and Cleveland will try to stave off elimination and pull out all the stops.  Curry also found his karma again in Game 4 and Golden State shoots well at home.  Total shootout to try and win it, Green out does hurt GS, but their bench has been solid all season and the playoffs.

Play 1 Unit on the Over.

IF Golden State wins, I do appreciate all your support this NBA Season.  Not my best by any means, I will strive hard to kick ass next season to make up for a subpar effort in 2016.  Rare for me in the NBA, just not a great year. 

UNDER 207 to 206.5

Tight game here tonight, and I do not see a 30 pt blowout.  The key to Golden State winning games 1 and 2 was defense.  Thee key to the Cavs winning game 3, was defense.  Both teams will step it up tonight in what should be a physical game.

1 Unit on the Under 

Golden State - pk

What makes ANYONE think Cleveland can hang here.  Mis Matches all over the floor, no depth for the Cavs, lack of coaching, LeBron getting schooled and GS has put on a clinic in games 1 and 2 winning by 35 points Over the spread for Christs sake in 2 games combined.  Cleveland has not beat Golden State in 7 attempts dating back to last June (2015) and GS had covered all but 1 of those spreads.  Mis Match – Cavs at home is not worth this massive point swing by oddsmakers.

Play 2 Units on Golden State

Under 209 Cavs / Warriors

Short and Sweet.  Cleveland has to play better defense and adjust to the bench players of Golden State and I think they will, despite Tyron Lues inability to make adjustments in Game 1.  Cleveland did a hell of a job on Curry and Thompson allowing them just 20 points combined and Golden State stepped up and played defense in Game 1 and I think this will be a close to the vest, tight game.  These 2 teams in their last 5 games combined have scored and average of 204 on offense and allowed just 195 on defense.  

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER 

#501 - Cleveland +6  *9:00 EST

Cleveland is healthy and well rested versus last year.  Golden St off a grueling  game series, and GS plays no defense.  You have a team here in the Cavs that is 19 ppg better on defense in the last 5 games catching 6 points with a motivated LeBron James.

Play 1 Unit on Cleveland to keep it close

#719/720  UNDER 220.5 to 221   *9 EST Tip 

This will be a tight game as the Warriors stave off elimination.  Look for the Thunder to play big, work on rebounds, not allow second chance points and give GS all they want here.  I want nothing to do with the side play as bad as Golden State has looked on offense and laying a big number, but this should easily go under the big total here as this one will be tight to the vest and each team working the ball.

Play 1 unit on the Under

#717 - Toronto +10.5 – to 11   **8:35 EST

The Cavs are in a funk and not only have the Raptors figured out how to defend and take LeBron out of his game, Kevin Love is hurt and not contributing anyway and Toronto gets their big man Valanciunas back tonight who is offensive minded.  I like the Raptors to cover, Cleveland to win a tight one.  Nothing will come easy for Cleveland moving forward in this series.

Play 1 unit on Toronto 

#715 - Warriors -1.5   **9 EST Tip 

Great value here.  Look, this scenario has been played out for years, the NBA will favor, and the refs will favor Golden State.  The ONLY scenario the NBA wants is Golden State – Cleveland folks.  Why do you think the NBA did not suspend Green for a game with an obvious kick to the balls in the last game?   Golden State has been playing low key, the gloves come off tonight, expect both Curry and Thompson to have huge nights and for Golden State to go big in this game.  The Warriors have lost 13 all season, I do not see them losing back to back in the conference finals especially after the ass kicking they took on Sunday.

Play 1 Unit on Golden State

Toronto +6 to 6.5  

Home team tonight who is 8-1 ATS their last 9 at home against a team with a winning road record, off a 15 point win and catching 6 points.  Yes, drinking the Kool aid as oddsmakers begging you to take the points but 6 is too many, but if the defense played the last game by the Raptors, if employed tonight, they will keep this close and the coaching staff knows this for the Raptors.  Tyrone Lue has not had to adjust anything to this point, I am not sold on him as a head coach just yet.  Cleveland’s been on a hell of run, and now is an unusual position.  I do expect James to step up here and he will have his points but Toronto’s backcourt is playing better, they were just dead tired and fatigued in the Games 1 and 2.  Have their feet now on a strong home court.

Play 1 Unit on Toronto 

OVER 197.5 Cavs / Raptors 

Cleveland's offense on fire and if the Raptors want to compete, they must trade punches on the scoreboard with their backcourt, which is capable.  ONLY way they are going to win a game.  Cleveland 11-5 with the OVER in their last 15 Conference Finals Games, and Toronto is 24-6 on Overs their last 30 times they were beat by 10 or more in their previous game.

Play 2 Units on the OVER 

#705 - Thunder +8.5    *9:05 est tip 

This is a tight series, and one for the record books no doubt but this number is too high.  Curry not 100% and OK City overcame great odds in Game 1 and proved to themselves and everyone this is going to be an epic series.  The total at 223 tells you oddsmakers expect a shootout and when a team who can score and has 2 superstars and are better in the paint than GS are getting damn near double digits, I will take the big points.

Play 1 Unit on OK City.   

Cleveland –10 to 10.5

Toronto has played 14 games, both series to 7 games, both series nail biters and have injury issues and fatigue issues.  Cleveland on 8 days rest, undefeated, and quite frankly the better team with the NBA’s second best player in James who is on a mission, as well as the fast paced high octane offense of the Cavs hitting on all cylinders.  Depth is going to be an issue for the raptors tonight and one of the best guards has a thumb issue.  Cleveland at home will rock the house tonight.  BIG number to lay and oddsmakers begging you to take the points with Raptors off a huge win, but Cleveland lying in wait at home with a great offense.  I am not concerned about a rusty Cavs team, they have been practicing hard my sources tell me and are amped up for this opener.   You wont see a line this big again and of you do perhaps the Raptors are a take, but not in this spot.  A  tired team coming in here. 

Play 1 Unit on Cleveland

#543  San Antonio -1.5 to 2 max  **8:35 EST Tip

I am going to make this short and sweet. Forget stats and ect. You have a veteran team, deep on the bench with a legendary head coach with their back against the wall against a team they KNOW they can beat who they have overlooked and taken too lightly.  Leonard dropped his guard on defense in the 4th quarter last game, the Spurs simply pissed down their leg, and trust me, Coach Pop will have them thinking this is the Super Bowl tonight.  I like veteran experienced teams with their back against the wall laying less than a 3 pointer.  I expect Parker and Alridge to step it up and for Duncan and the rest of the boys to lead them to a win here.

Play 2 Units on San Antonio  

#539 / 540 - OVER 217 Golden St / Portland  **10:30 est tip 

They raised this line 2 points.  9 out of the last 11 in this series have went over, GS back at home and Curry going off.  I expect another shootout, and no defense.  Same OL Same OL.  Not enough line adjustment by oddsmakers. They cannot make this line high enough. 

Play 1 Unit on the Over.

OVER 214 Blazers / Warriors

8 out of the last 10 have went over and with GS having offensive issues in Game 3, have no illusions, they will come out gunning, and as usual neither plays much defense.  Both in the 100’s with ease tonight. 

Play 1 Unit on the OVER 

Cleveland -5

More of the same.  Atlanta changed up their lineup and still could not win with a double digit lead. Cash money on the Cavs, as I see them closing out the series without a loss.

Play 1 Unit on Cleveland

Golden State -3 to 3.5

No write up here as they get tedious game to game 2 days apart.  Golden St is the better team without Curry.  period.   This is a huge line drop just like Cleveland and I do not think Portland at home is worth 5-6 points in a line move.  GS continues to roll.

Play 1 Unit on Golden State 

#517 - Cavs -2 to 2.5  **&05 est tip

Short and Sweet.  2 double digit wins as a 7 point fav or more, and Atlanta grabs 5 points on the line for playing at home?  No thanks.  LeBron and company are red hot from the floor, and while they will not match their shooting performance from Game 2, they have too much firepower that is in sync for Atlanta to contend with.

Play 1 Unit on Cleveland

Over 188 Miami / Toronto

A little bit of a zig zag thing for yesterday but Toronto's backcourt could not have played worse in game 1 and still made it to OT, however I see both teams opening up here tonight and for Toronto to play vastly better in the backcourt, which is their strength and where they have point production, and Miami will keep gunning as Wade and company try to make their mark again.

Play 1 Unit on the Over 

Over 196.5  Cavs / Hawks 

Neither team shot well, including Atlanta at under 38% in Game 1 and they still exceeded this number.  6 out of the last 8 in this series at Cleveland have went over the total and I expect BOTH teams to play better tonight and Cleveland's bench to continue to support.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER 

#510 - San Antonio -7.5   *9:35 est tip 

The Spurs flex their muscle this time of year, a veteran head coach, experience galore on the roster, the best defender in the NBA on Durrant.  The Spurs waxed OK City in game 1 by 32 on a floor where they rarely, and I mean rarely lose if hardly ever over the past 2 seasons.  OK City outgunned and have not even won a game in here in 2 years.  Too much firepower, experience and depth, and Coach Pop just flat out can coach circles around Billy Donovan, as evidenced in Game 1.  Spurs cruise again.  Tough to recover from an ass kicking like the Thunder took, it just takes the wind out of your sales.

Play 1 Unit on the Spurs. 

Pacers +5.5

Indian will  not go quietly in the night and while Toronto is at home in front of a sold out crowd, the Raptors have not been able to close out jack crap in the post season forever.  I like the points here in what should be a wire to wire typer game.  Buzzer beater wins it, again I will take the points.

Play 1 Unit on Indiana 

# 506 -Golden State -9    *3:30 est tip

While the Clippers were down with their two best players for most of the series against Portland which afforded the Blazers a series win, the fact Curry is out is not enough to deter me from the Warriors who are the best team in the NBA, at home, with rest, who have way too much offense for Portland to contend with here.

Play 1 Unit on Golden State

Hornets +6.5

This line dropped for a reason.  While Miami's Wade finally went off in the last game in the 4th quarter, this one goes down to the wire and I will gladly grab the points with a capable team.

Play 1 Unit on Charlotte

OK City +6.5

This will be a test for the Spurs in this series.  Leonard is solid on defense no doubt and will be tasked to slow down a red hot Durrant in this series. I do not think he can stop him totally and Westbrook and company can pick up the pace.  OK City averaged 112 ppg on offense in the round 1 series and on offense they are clicking on all cylinders.  They can score enough here to keep pace and cover the number.  These teams split 2-2 this season with the home team winning each time.  Last game was a an OT game win by the Spurs.  

Play 1 Unit on OK City 

#577 / 578 - UNDER 195.5 Clippers/ Blazers   *10:05 est tip 

No Paul – No Griffen, 4-0 ATS with the Clippers here on the Under in the post season and the last 5 in the series have went under and LA lost 50%+ of their scoring power and both teams in their last 5 games have allowed less than 98 PPG, and I doubt either team gets out of the high 80’s or low 90’s tonight as LA HAS to play defense at their highest level tonight even to have a chance at winning the game.

Play 1 Unit on the Under 

#569 - Pacers +7  **6:05 est 

This line is going to drop.  Look - Toronto is not a good playoff team and frankly George coming off a bad game and the Pacers still won.  The tighter the series gets as the conclusion of a 7 games series gets, the tighter the games get.  This is too many points, and the Raptors home court I know is strong, but their back court has been playing like dog crap and thew Pacer swill give them all they want here.

Play 1 Unit on Indiana 

# 561/ 562 - Miami / Charlotte OVER 195.5   ** 7:05 EST Tip

Charlotte got down and dirty and went Big on Miami in game 3 and caught them off guard and Miami could not adjust in time to recover.  The Heat will be ready tonight on offense, and this total is too low and an over adjustment by oddsmakers.  Both teams will come out gunning, especially Miami in this one.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER 

#555 - Golden St -8.5 to 9   *3:35 EST Tip 

Curry back - off a loss - the best team in the playoffs in a foul mood.  I smell a 20 point blowout here.  Plain and simple.

Play 1 Unit on Golden State 

San Antonio -11.5

THIS LINE WILL GO UP.  Posting on Wednesday.  If you have not watched both games in this series, then you should go to NBA TV and look for re-runs because this matchup is a total mis-match.  Memphis is short handed against about the only team who can beat Golden State in a 7 game series.  Memphis cannot score.  At home - who cares?  The Spurs are loaded with talent and experience and depth.  They are the best coached team in the NBA.  The Spurs second team was beating the hell out of Memphis in the second half of their last game.  Every stat that matters favors San Antonio huge in this game and series, and it will be a 4 game series.  No way San Antonio lets off the hammer here, they are on the road and want to close this series out asap because of the age of their veterans.  I personally have 5 dimes on this game, so if it goes down, we go down together.  Honestly this should be a 20 point + win .

Play 3 Units on the Spurs. (3x your normal wager) best of Luck - Tony G 

#537 - Golden State -5 to 5.5   **9:30 EST Tip 

Even without Curry who is questionable, the bottom line is Houston is a mess of a team, do not have chemistry and they are lazy as shit on defense and that plays into the Warriors hands.  Good value on the number with Curry questionable, but GS has plenty of firepower and Houston cannot stop anyone on defense, nor half the time they do not try including James Harden.  Best team in the NBA against a #8 seed laying less than 6 points?  I will take it all day long.

Play 1 Unit on Golden State

NOTE:  Playoff Game of the year is up and goes tomorrow night.  6-1 ATS last 7 years with this play.  

Miami -4.5

32 point win and laying less than 5.  Too many mis-matches here to go into, but experience and scoring power are both on Miami’s side.  A 3 seed should be favored over a 6 seed by 4 or 5 points, and the low post and big man game with Deng was a clear mis match as Miami just flat out manhandled the Hornets.  More of the same, and we are in Miami which is a nice 2 to3 point home court advantage.  Sometimes things are exactly what they are, Miami the vastly better team.

Play 1 unit on Miami. 

Indiana +7.5

Wow- I put the Pacers out for free on Saturday and they won by 10 as a 6 point dog and now are getting more points against a good Toronto team who simply cannot win playoff games.  That said I think the Raptors will avenge here, but gladly take the points with the Pacers and a hot Mr. George on the floor for them.

Play 1 Unit on Indiana

BONUS PLAY:  Golden State -13.  No one wants in front of this train.  

Detroit +10.5 to 11

Interesting that Detroit took 3 out of 4 in this series and just won an OT game against the Cavs as well and yet little respect from oddsmakers.  When you have 2 teams that exceed 100 ppg on offense for the season and give one of them double digits in the playoffs, I am taking the big points.  The public loves to bert LeBron and company, this line is inflated.

Play 1 Unit on Detroit.