Boston +5.5

Both teams well coached and for all the press about Boston scoring they average a higher number than the Hawks.  Boston is very well coached and are playing with triple revenge here including a setback on the 9th on this very floor by 11 points.  I think this is a 7 games series between 2 well coached teams and the Underdog should have value no matter who it is with a spread higher than 4 points.  I will take Boston

Play 1 Unit 

Warriors +5.5

Yeah the Warriors are 0-33 at San Antonio, and the Spurs are 39-0 at home.  Coach Pop publically stated he could care less about the undefeated home record.  After a defeat by 9 to the Warriors the Spurs rested starters and lost to Denver.  They face a motivated Warriors team scoring 9 ppg more than them on offense and off a comeback win against Memphis last night. With the scoring power of Golden State I am willing to take the 5.5 points.  Do you not think the best team in NBA who is 0-33 in this venue going for a record tying 73 wins this season wants this?  It will not come easy for the mighty Spurs at home, I will grab the points.

Play 1 Unit on Golden State

Celtics +5.5

Short and sweet, this is a huge game for the #3 and #4 spot in the eastern Playoffs and Boston trounced the Bucks last night and scored 124 points.  There is no quit in this Brad Stevens coached team and this game will be a buzzer beater.  Boston has the better offense and are a killer team ATS-wise of zero days resat.  The Celtics are 4-0 ATS their last 4 against Eastern opponents and are dialed in.

Play 1 Unit on Boston 

#505 / 506 - Orlando / Detroit UNDER 208.5    *7 est tip 

The Pistons have played some defense down the stretch run and neither team is an offensive juggernaut.  This is a big game for Detroit as they are trying to keep the Bulls out of the Playoffs and I expect them to play close to the vest against a suddenly hot Orlando team.  Did I mention Detroit is worst in the NBA at free throws?  Orlando plays some good defense at home and Detroit trending Under on the road as of late.  The line has dropped from opening at 209 - get on it early.

Play 1 Unit on the Under 

Miami Heat -8

Catching the Heat off a loss to LA Lakers as a 10 point favorite after LA got beat by 48 at Utah.  Miami overlooked and did not prepare for LA and now they have Sacramento as a sacrificial lamb who is playing without Cousins tonight as he is suspended for this game.  Plain and simple, Miami will come out with their ears pinned back and the Kings without Cousins are a totally different animal.  I expect Wade and the boys to have a big night and hammer home a double digit win with ease.

Play 1 Unit on Miami 

Bulls +8

Yes Chicago is in a downward spiral but getting 8 points with a team who is talented but lacking consistency, against a team they can match up well with, in a desperate fight for the playoffs provides motivation enough to cover this number.  Chicago is better at rebounding and have the motivation to play balls out here tonight.  Indiana has dropped 3 out of their last 6 games, this number is too high.

Play 1 Unit on Chicago

#512 - Minnesota +6.5 to 7   *8:05 est tip 

Love the T Wolves at home tonight, despite playing a road OT game last night in a win at Washington.  The T Wolves oldest starter is 26 yrs old so I am not overly worried about them being tired.  We have a scenario here where Utah is playing their 4th game in 6 days and a tough scheduling spot to lay 6.5 points against a team in their last 5 games has averaged 22 ppg on offense as compared to Utah in the same timeframe.  Utah may win but it will not come easy.  Utah battling for the 8th playoff spot and all the pressure is on them here. 

Play 1 Unit on Minnesota 

Over 196 Spurs and Heat

Miami has scored in excess of 100 points in each of their last 11 games and are clicking on offense.  San Antonio coming off a bad loss Monday and the last 2 games their offense has sputtered.  Miami plays little D and I like this one to go over the total and both teams exceeding 100 points.  Spurs at home average a 105 ppg this season on offense.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER 

Mavs +9.5 for 1 Unit guys.  

Short on time but Cleveland off an ugly loss and some issues with the Cavs and Dallas is fighting for the playoffs here.  Too many points in this one and Cleveland is terrible coming off a loss ATS.  Short and Sweet today.  

Washington +4

Hood is out for Utah and his 14 points in this game and Washington despite losing 3 in a row should have Beal back tonight and they are averaging 9 ppg more on offense than Utah in their last 5 games.  Like Washington to snap the streak, Utah has lost 7 out of their last 8 and have not covered the spread at home their last 4 home games and are 0-9 ATS on 1 days rest this year.  

Play 1 Unit on Washington 

Miami -9 to 9.5

Okafor is out or is at less than 75% tonight for Philly if he even plays which is doubtful, and he is the cog in the offense and the Heat will not back down here.  Nole also is banged up for Philly but expected to play.  The Heat are 20-3 SU against Philly their last 23 games.  Philly has lost 10 in a row allowing 116 ppg in those losses on the average. 

Play 1 Unit on Miami 

UNDER 220 Atlanta / Golden State

Atlanta has failed to break a 11 ppg average in their last 5 games and they managed just 87 points on offense in their last game.  Yes Golden State plays little defense but Curry is listed a questionable tonight with a bad ankle and I doubt he can go off for 30+ tonight if he does play, and the Hawks can play defense and contest the outside shot.

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER 

OVER 209.5  -  LA / Memphis

Have you seen the Lakers on defense?  Neither have I or damn near any team they face.  As a matter of fact outside of about 4 or 5 teams this season, no one in the NBA is playing defense.  These two just had a monster shootout in the home / home series that put up 247 points, and LA managed 119 points with their troster.  Memphis used to play defense, that seems out the window and I expect a mirror image of the first meeting here and expect at least 220 in this one.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER 

# 503 - Charlotte +8.5 - 7 est

Cleveland lost their ass and scored 88 points against Detroit in a loss after Waxing OK City and Irving is not 100%.  Charlotte is one of the few teams to beat Cleveland as of late back on the 3rd of this month and a big boost for the Hornets is getting Al Jefferson back after the all star break.  The Inside game for the Hornets will keep them in this one and Cleveland still so inconsistent I am not willing to lay this number against a winning team on a 5 game win streak.  Anytime you have a team that averages YTD a 102 ppg, laying big numbers against them is always dangerous.

Play 1 Unit on Charlotte

OVER 202 Houston / Utah
I like the scoring and offense of Utah.  Although they have a worse record than underachieving Houston, they are favored 5 in this game.  Shooting 48% from the floor in the last 5 and playing at home in the altitude helps their cause, and fatigue will be a factor for Houston playing this way above sea level where they reside at home. That means more bad defense from the Rockets. Neither team playing any defense what so ever  Houston allowing 108 ppg their last 5 games and Utah 106, and both are scoring in access of 103 ppg in their last 5 games.  I expect a shootout here.
Play 1 Unit on the Over

UNDER 218.5 OK City / New Orleans

The Pelicans might be in trouble here as OK City is looking for their 40th win but I am not going to lay 11.  The last 10 games these two played only once did the combined total go over this line and the Pelicans have managed just 98 ppg their last 5 games.  I like the Under here.  Short and Sweet.  I have a 210 power number and that is a 8.5 point overlay.

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER 

Short on time - 1 Unit on Celtics +7.  Brad Stevens will out coach Lue in this game.  The Cavs are inconsistent and this is a bad matchup for them.   The low post game for Boston will keep them in this all night long and this is too many points. Boston 10-3 their last 13 and they just do not get blown out.  Last time they got beat by a double digit number was mid-December.

Play 1 Unit on Boston 

NY Knicks +4.5

Fading Pistons in a tough spot here.  5th game in 7 days and down 20 last night made a valiant comeback that fell short and now they tee it up again.  I love fading teams in the 4th or 5th game in a week or less, and they are simply exhausted.  This is their 1`4th game in 23 days!  WOW.  The Knicks 0-2 their last 2 against quality opponents, I like them here big time.

Play 1 Unit on NY Knicks

Memphis -3   8 est

Sacramento has lost it on defense, and this is their 3rd straight road game, and 4th game in 6 days, always a go against spot.  Look for Randolph and Gasol from Memphis to contain Cousins, and bear in mind the Kings are giving up points like crazy and have not won in Memphis in over 6 years!  Bad spot for the Kins and Memphis off a massive blowout win on Thursday.  They should rack the Kings at home tonight.  

Play 1 Unit on Memphis 

# 852 - Orlando -3.5   7:05 est tip 

Charlotte has not won a road game since December 11th and they have Batum, Zeller and Lamb out tonight!  They are 2-8 ATS on the road their last 10 games and 0-10 SU!   Orlando off a loss at Philly which is embarrassing and I look for them to rebound tonight at home where they have already beaten Charlotte once this year by 15.  Injured Hornets team in trouble here against a perceived patsy and a weak line.  Bear in mind Batum is the Hornets second leading scorer.

Play 1 Unit on Orlando 

#510 NY Knicks -2.5   7:35 est 

Cheap line against Utah here whose only 2 wins dating back to the 9th of this month have been against the hapless Lakers.  NY playing with triple revenge and also avenging a 21 point loss on the road at Utah back on Dec 9.  I like the way the NY is playing as of late and although they needed OT to beat Philly in their last game, they have the better team at home, laying less than 3 points against a team who has lost 14 out of 20 road games this year.

Play 1 Unit on the Knicks 

Atlanta -3   7 EST Tip 
Cheap line as we fade Charlotte who has dropped 12 out of 15 games.  Hawks coming in here on 4 days rest after a blowout win over the Bulls Saturday.  The Hornets are simply a fade team right now and the Hawks already won in here back in November.  In their last 5 games the Hornets are giving up 11 more points than they are scoring- that is not good against the high flying Hawks
Play 1 Unit on Atlanta 

#511 - Bucks +1.5

Are you kidding me?  The T Wolves have no offense as of late just 90 ppg their last 5 and fresh off a 25 point ass kicking and the Bucks are rolling and off am impressive win over the Pacers.  Better team with momentum here catching points against a struggling offense.

Play 1 Unit on Milwaukee 

Knicks +7.5

NY playing with 3 time revenge and Melo back in the lineup tonight.  The Celtics in their last 5 games have allowed 101 ppg against them and the Knicks are averaging 99 on offense, many of them without Melo.  I like the Knicks to make a serious run here and cover the number.

Play 1 Unit on NY 

OVER 196 – Knicks and Magic

These 2 scored 191 back in November and neither shot better than 36% from the floor.  Both teams are hot and scoring well and evenly matched, and I expect some scoring in this one.  My scoring model database says 204 and that is an 8 point overlay worth the stretch for a double unit play.

Play 2 Units on the OVER 

Bucks -3

The Lakers just lost 2 games by a combined total of 51 points.  I watched both those games and quite frankly LA is one of the worst teams in the NBA outside of Philly and the Bucks ended Golden States streak this weekend and are rolling along nicely.  In their last 5 games LA has given up a league worst 114 ppg on defense, just deplorable and the Lakers have NO depth.    I have an overlay of 6.5 points here and oddsmakers at 2.5, plenty of value in the Favorite here and LA has 1 home win all season.  Unreal, and Kobe is a shell of himself and plays little to no defense.

Play 1 Unit on Milwaukee 

Charlotte +3.5

No time for writeup today - but Charlotte is red hot and won 8 out of 10 and have too much offense for memphis to counter with.  

Play 1 Unit on Charlotte 

Minnesota -6.5

The Lakers are pathetic and also this is a spot for what is called a spot bet.  This is the 6th road game for the Lakers, and their last 3 games on the road have resulted in them losing by 9,20 And 13.  Minny has lost 3 in a row at home but have been competitive in every game against far better teams than the Lakers.  Anytime a team is on a tail end of a road run of 5 or more games that team is fade opportunity and the Lakers only bright spot is the cheering that Kobe gets from opposing crowds on his Farwell tour and Kobe is a shell of himself as far as a contributor of any significant effect on the outcome of a game.  Minny is better away from home than they are at home, but this is a great spot for them to get a win on this 4 game home stand before they head out on the road and they own numerous stat advantages here in this matchup including bench scoring.

Play 1 Unit on Minnesota. 

Play 1 Unit on Boston

Fading the Pelicans.  They are off a OT upset win over the Cavs, where James had only 7 points.  I love to fade double digit dogs off a huge win over a good team the next game.  Cletics vastly better.

San Antonio -4

Cheap number for the red hot Spurs.  Defense is the KEY.  No team has scored over 90 ppg on the Spurs in the last 5 games, Leonard is red hot, Duncan well rested and for the Da Bulls – Rose has managed 32% from the floor in his last 2 games and faces the best defense he has seen all year.  Spurs roll.

Play 1 Unit on San Antonio 

Toronto -2.5 to -3

Washington's frontcourt should get dominated here and they have not played well as of late. Toronto will own the paint for easy points.  The Raptors have edges in scoring, free throws, turnovers, and rebounding.  Enough said - Raptors should roll here and their bench players are stepping up.  

Play 1 Unit on Toronto

BONUS PLAY - OVER 192.5 in San Antonio / Atlanta game.  Both ranked in the Top 10 in the NBA in offensive efficiency 

Pacers +2.5

Short on time - Pacers Red Hot and cashing tickets like crazy and the Wizards recent win streak fueled by beating bottom feeders.  George a huge plus in the lineup for Indiana, all over them as a dog tonight for an outright win.

Play 1 Unit on Indiana

Detroit -2.5

Like the Pistons against the Bucks here, and they are playing with Triple Revenge dating back to last season.  Detroit beat Cleveland and Minnesota with plenty of moxy before a 2 point setback at home this weekend against the Wizards in a game they should have won.  That same Washington team beat the Bucks by 29 last week, and the Bucks off 3 straight blowout losses where their offense is just not clicking and they give up a ton of points.  Detroit better at a small number here. Pistons have not covered in this series in the 6 attempts, that trend reverses tonight.

Play 1 Unit on Detroit

Knicks +4.5

Solid road team, as a matter of fact better road team than home team, winners of 3 straight and a cover machine on the road.  Houston's offense inconsistent and I like the Knicks to continue their road performance.  better offense and better defense statistically for NY.  Like their chances of a road win here, I will take the points in a close game.

Play 1 Unit on the Knicks 

UNDER 208.5 Kings and Hawks

My Power rating on this 202, and that is a 6.5 point overlay versus the line in this game, Sacramento not at home where they shoot lights out and Hawks have been struggling on offense and Teauge is doubtful again.

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER 

Cavs –4

James and company in a bad mood and added rest after a double OT loss to the Bucks, and Detroit in free fall dropping 5 straight and not able on offense in any 5 losses to top 100 points on offense.  Cavs ticked off, Detroit reeling, and a decent number here in what I fell will be a double digit win by the Cavs.

Play 1 Unit on Cleveland 

NY Knicks +6 to 6.5 

The Knicks are better on the road.  Wins at Toronto and Washington are impressive, 2 playoff teams last year.  Not sold at all on Charlotte carrying this number and the value lies in the dog here, and the Knicks are fully capable of winning outright.  Offensive and defensive stats are dead even here.  Knicks at least early on are road worthy of covering a number like this.

Play 1 Unit on the NY Knicks

UNDER 200 Heat / Lakers

Lakers offense slumping badly and the Miami Heat play rock solid defense, especially at home.  I do not see LA scoring more than 90 here gents.

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER

Detroit -5

Real simple.  Detroit is red hot and Indiana is scoring 92 ppg and allowing 105 ppg and I have seen no team chemistry at all for the Pacers.   Detroit has come out hot, they are 3-0 and have beaten some very good teams and allowing just 91 ppg so far and are clicking on offense, and this game is at home for Pistons.

Play 1 Unit on Detroit  

UNDER 195

Both teams know their key to success is to dictate tempo to their style of play, which  each team is vastly different from the other, but both played well in Game on offense and still pushed on the number and I do not see them playing the same way on Tuesday.  Neither bench scored well in Game 5, 17 points each, but for Cleveland to even this up and have a chance and stave off elimination on Tuesday, they have to get physical and muck it up against LA.  Better chance of that happening at home for Cleveland and that sets up well for a low scoring battle here.

Play 1 Unit on the Under.  IF Golden State wins this game I want to thank you for your NBA biz this season.  Best of Luck. 

Cleveland +8.5

Short and Sweet.  A tough game for both teams, but my source who has 7 Las Vegas Books under his belt has relayed to me that every big time sharp player in Vegas is on the Cavs here, and I agree.  Other than a huge setback in Game 4 due to fatigue, the Cavs have been the better team in this series.  GS went small in game 4, Cleveland made little adjustment and were dead tired.  I expect with some rest and focus Cleveland once again will hang in there till the final minute.  Too many points in this one, Cavs cover. 

Play 2 Units on Cleveland 

OVER 193

Short and Sweet.  Fatigue, lack of depth, and stars playing their guts out adds up to a tired team down the stretch.  What does that mean?  DEFENSE suffers big time.  Cleveland’s defense has been the key to their success.  Golden State will have to shoot better and expect an up-tempo style tonight to get them back in this and look for Cleveland’s fatigue to finally show up and their defense to be not as effective.  James will have his, Curry will step up, look for a higher scoring game.

Play 1 Unit on the Over

NBA Final Game 4

Golden State @ Cleveland

By Tony George

The square bet here is Cleveland getting points at home.  That is the bottom line, no doubt about it.  Let’s think about that angle a minute.  A hot team, the best player in the NBA, and underdog on their home floor, the home crowd near riot stage, so what is not to love about the Cavs getting 2.5 points tonight?  Did I mention Las Vegas oddsmakers also are begging you to take the home team tonight, especially with all the hype surrounding them.  Last time I checked, Las Vegas Sportsbooks are a “for profit” business model.

The Golden State Warriors have stunk up the joint in the Finals, and in all honesty Cleveland has beat them in every game in regulation and at one point in Game 3 had over a 20 point lead late in the 3rd quarter and beyond. The Cavs should be up 3-0 in this series.  Again what is not to love about Cleveland getting points here on their home floor?  The TV ratings have been at a 14 share or higher, and that is unheard of for the NBA.  Do you not think the NBA knows this is a money maker and they want 7 games?  Do you not think perhaps the calls may go the Warriors way tonight a little bit more than for Cleveland because of that, although things like that are a secret and always denied, we all know the drill and have seen it time and time again over the years in numerous sports. 

Fatigue and depth  is a real factor here tonight for the Cavs, and the Warriors are do or die tonight, and hardly could play any worse in tonight’s game as they did the last game where the NBA’s MVP had a total of 3 points at halftime, and still with a couple minutes left were within 3 points of tying the game!  Add all that up and I feel tonight’s line is a sucker line and Golden State rises out of the ashes here and makes a last stand to save this series for themselves.  LeBron will have his points, the guy is on fire right now and taking double the shots per game as he did in the regular season because HE HAS TO in order for the Cavs to have a shot at this thing.  At days end, Golden State has the players, talent, and depth to get it done, and Steve Kerr can coach a ton better than he has in the first 3 games.  I see all that coming to fruition tonight and a Golden State win.

FREE PRO PICK ON GOLDEN STATE -3 to -4 (the Line has skyrocketed) 

Tony’s NBA Totals plays are on a documented 13-3 ATS run, that is 81% ATS Gents, and has the Totals Winner in tonight’s game.   

Golden State +1

Here is where DEPTH takes it toll on Cleveland with only 1 day rest, a Very short bench and off 2 OT Games where James and the top 3 scorers played over 95% of the minutes and actually Cleveland really only plays 7 players.  Golden State will use their depth here to grind it out, and look for Curry to have a better day and Coach Kerr to devise a gameplan to shake Curry loose.

Play 2 Units on Golden State 

Golden State -7.5

This is not rocket science.  Without Irving the Cavs are done, perhaps in a sweep, but 6 games or less.  Without Irving the Warriors can double up LeBron, who despite his 44 points in game 1, almost half his teams points, he made bad decisions at games end that costs Cleveland who covered almost every minute of regulation in game 1 but dumped in OT.  The vaunted defense of Cleveland averaging 88 ppg headed into the Finals in their last 5 games, was shredded by Golden State and Curry did not really even go off.  James is the best player in the NBA bar none, but he simply cannot do it himself and Blatt being a terrible coach in crunch time is not helping.  If anyone saw Kyrie leave the floor on Thursday, there is little or no chance of him playing as I release this Play Friday and if he does, it will not be for long, but rep[orts are he is on crutches and getting an MRI – NOT GOOD..  He played 44 minutes on a bad knee and then re-injured it.  Not enough weapons for Cleveland to contend here without him, and Golden State will not come out limping in the first quarter like they did in Game 1, it was youth and nerves, that is now over with a win under their belt and the pressure off.  The Cavs have only covered 3 out of 13 games when playing Golden State the last 13 games!

Play 1 Unit on Golden State.  

OVER 202.5

Golden State will not be challenged outside in this game, and Cleveland knows to have any chance of winning games in this series, they have to score at least 100 ppg to make that happen.  James will his points, Irving is better in terms of health, and Curry and Thompson will have field days from the floor.  Up tempo game plans for both teams, I like the Over.  Both teams offenses in the last 5 games average 211 ppg combined, and while the Cavs defense in their last 5 averaged 88 ppg, that was against an offensively inept Atlanta offense.  Golden State is a different animal and despite going Under in 7 out of their last 8 home games, the totals line in those games was vastly higher than this line.  

Play 1 Unit on the Over.  

OVER 216 
Short and Sweet.  These two teams will pull out all the stops tonight.  Now with the Cavs resting, Golden St will unleash the hounds and try to get this put to bed at home tonight and Curry at the time of this write up was playing, but in any event with the Warriors offense and Thompson stepping up, I see both teams exceeding the 100 mark early on the 4th quarter here.  A ton of offense here and Houston got their mojo back on Monday.
Play 1 Unit on the OVER 

OVER 193.5 Cavs / Hawks

All out shootout tonight.  Look for LeBron to close out this series with a great effort and numerous other players stepping up and filling key roles in the absence of Love and quite possibly Irving again tonight.  Atlanta will leave no stone unturned in the process of avoiding a sweep tonight and if it was not for ice cold shooting Sunday Night they would have won that game.  Atlanta’s offense depends on 3 point shooting a great deal and yes Kouver is out, but I see an all or nothing attempt tonight to trade punches on the scoreboard and try and steak a win here, which I doubt they get but not willing to lay almost 8 points here.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER 

Golden State -4.5
Houston off a demoralizing loss at home and while a 30+ point loss is recoverable in the NBA, there are simply underlying match up issues that were exposed in game 3 and Bogut is kicking in double doubles for GS, and Curry is on fire and Houston has no answer other than Hardin who cannot carry the Rockets, and not sure McHale can coach a big game to save his life.  I expect a sweep here in this series.  
Play 1 Unit on Golden State

Houston +1

Home dog here and a close game involved in the first 2 in this series in which the Rockets could have won both of them.  Howard to play tonight for Houston and the stat of the day is this one:  Houston has not lost 3 games in a row ALL SEASON.  With their back against the wall here, look for them to play some good defense again, and get the job done at home.  Back against the wall game here folks. 

Play 1 Unit on Houston 

UNDER 196 Hawks / Cavs

Injuries to key players all over the place and the Cavs defense is playing well and quite frankly the JR Smith explosion is not one to count on every game.  Disturbing that Kyle Kouver for Atlanta has averaged just 5.2 ppg his last 5 games, and all of Atlanta’s sharpshooters are struggling.  Irving not near 100% and Carroll is questionable and Irving may not play tonight.  Side Play too close to call but do not see Atlanta losing 2 at home but the way their offense is playing they very well could.  I expect a lower scoring grind out game tonight.

Play 1 Unit on the Under 

UNDER 220 Rockets / Warriors

Dwight Howard questionable which is HUGE in this series for Houston so I am staying away from the spread here but if he plays I think Houston will stay close.  Expect vastly better defense from Golden State as Coach Kerr has publically stated his focus is on defense this game, and game 1 went under at this very same number give or take a half point and I do not see both teams at 110 or more.

Play 1 Unit on the Under. 

Atlanta Pick to  -1

The Hawks owned the Cavs in the regular season, and I like them at home tonight for 2 reasons.  The guard play is better for Atlanta, and I like their ability penetrate off the dribble against a wounded Irving and Delladova, who quite frankly is slow.  Carrol did a hell of a job defending James this season and gave him fits, and with Cleveland not at 100% healthy and Atlanta having more scoring options I like them here at home to get the win in basically a coin flip line. 

Play 1 Unit on Atlanta  

UNDER 220.5 Houston / Golden State

Unreal totals run and if you look closely at this game, especially the Warriors, they have played some great defense.  Despite the Grizzles lack of firepower, the Warrior’s gave them little chance at open shots and also rebounded well.  Houston’s offense will work on the low post and down low in general to slow the pace, and the key to Houston’s win in the last series against the Clippers was concentrating on playing some defense in the last 3 games of that series.  I just do not see a shootout here although the total will exceed 200, the fact is 220 is a ton of points in an opener when both teams are feeling each other out.

Play 1 Unit on the Under 

Golden State -5

The Warriors can close this out tonight and quite frankly as good as Memphis has been on defense, Golden State has been every bit as good and with the firepower they have with Thompson and Curry, the Grizzles cannot counterpunch all night.  In an elimination game once the wind is taken out of your sails, teams tend to throw it in, like the Bulls last night for instance.  Big game here Golden State, they can rest this weekend while Houston and LA slug it out, Steve Kerr will unleash the hounds tonight in a blowout win.  Golden State has won the last 2 games by an average of 18.5 points gents!! 

Play 2 Units on Golden State 

Houston +8.5

Houston won by 21 and now getting almost 9 points?  Harden, Howard and Ariza can be deadly when dialed in, and do you think they will be dialed in to stave off elimination tonight?  Houston played defense the last game, not great defense, but some defense which is KEY in this game flor them.  Houston also controlled pace, and when they do again they can be deadly.  I think LA can this at home tonight however Houston will not go down without a fight here and this is flat out too many points. All trends point to LA and the Over here, I expect just the opposite.  Houston is bad on the road against LA, but the presure is on LA tonioght as much as Houston folks.  Should be a barnburner and tight one, I will take the points.

Play 1 Unit on Houston

UNDER 195.5 Memphis and Golden State

Memphis’s defense is shining and holding down the high flying Warriors.  The highest point total in this series is 188 scored.  All Games have been between 185 and 188 points, all 4 of them and all 4 of them have went under.  A half point line adjustment by oddsmakers is not enough from the last 2 games.  Lost in the mix is the fact the Warriors have allowed just 92 ppg their last 5 and I expect Memphis to struggle to add points on the board tonight.  A low scoring usually brings in Big Points to play so a lean to Memphis who should pull out all the stops and slow the pace of Play to hang in there.

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER

BONUS PLAY – Play Half Unit on Memphis +9.5 

OVER 218 Houston / LA

Every game has gone over in this series and I have cashed all of them either with Free Plays or Premium Plays.  Neither team plays defense and Houston is flat out deplorable and have allowed over 215 ppg in the playoffs and these two teams average allowing 217 ppg in their last 5.  Another shootout on Tap again tonight, nothing changes. Pure shootout, run and gun and Houston will pick up the pace on offense here at home as well.

Play 1 Unit on the Over. 

UNDER 196 - Griz / Warriors

The Griz continue to impress and stymie the Golden State offense with defense and quite frankly are playing a better brand of ball and the scoring again IN Memphis will be limited on both sides.   Under is 4-0 in this series the last 4 in Memphis and the series has went 5-1 ATS on the Under overall the last 6. 

Play 1 Unit on the Under

Cavs +2
Better team catching points after pissing all over themselves Friday Night and Rose beating them on a prayer 3 point bank shot.  Cleveland will not go down 3-1 in this series gents and I expect LeBron to take total control of this game and for Thompson to control the paint and look for the Cavs backcourt with Irving and Smith to be very active and press the pace.  I did cash and get lucky with the Bulls on Friday but this will be all Cleveland on Sunday.
Play 3 Units on Cleveland 

Atlanta -3.5
No John Wall.  Enough said.  Wall is a HUGE p[art of the Wizards and with fractured bones in his hand he is out and Atlanta will take advantage of iyt. The Hawks are winning despite Kouver and Teuage hitting any shots and I feel they will step up and without Wall in the lineup, the Wizards just got easier to defend.
Play 1 Unit on Atlanta 

Bulls -1.5

Better team catching points?  Vegas begging you to take the points here which will be square side of the game in my opinion.  Derrick Rose barely scraping 37% from the floor in this series and JR Smith back for the Cavs and Thompson in the middle is huge plus and paying dividends for the Cavs.  Cleveland played to their potential in Game 2 and Chicago needs this win big time tonight and should have a better effort at home.  The Bulls play well off of losses, and if you look at the game 2 box score, other than Cleveland getting out to a huge 1st quarter lead, Chicago with no help from the refs, outscored the Cavs in every other quarter in that game.  Cleveland plays horrible in Chicago just covering 2 out of their last 7 on the road there, and the Cavs for all their glory, have only covered 5 out of the last 18 meetings between these two teams. 

Play 1 Unit on Chicago

BONUS PLAY – OVER 216 for a HALF UNIT in the Clips / Rockets game.   In these two teams last 20 games combined, only 6 went Under.  Neither team even bothers to play defense. The last 5 games combined these two teams are scoring 220 ppg combined and allowing 219 ppg combined.  WOW 

Under 195 Bulls / Cavs

Expect a tight low scoring affair here, Rose not 100% and Cleveland looking to work the low post area tonight and get back in the series in what should be a hard fought game all the way around.  2 Key injuries for Cleveland affecting their chemistry and James is not lighting it up either.  3 out of the last 4 in this series have went Under, and the Cavs have went under their last 4 games, Bulls have went under the last 4, and the last 4 meetings in Cleveland have went Under.  Both teams playing good defense.

Play 1 Unit on the Under 

Wizards +6

Are you kidding me?  Zig Zag theory?  Take the team who sucked in Game 1 and expect a turnaround?  Call me a square, call me a sucker for a trap line all you want, Atlanta has shown me NOTHING in the post season, barely beat the Nets who are deplorable, and now the Wizards who may be the hottest team in the Playoffs are getting 6 points against a team barely able to shoot 39% in the post season?  John Wall is on fire, scoring 4 double / doubles in a row, dishing the ball out at 12 assists per game, Pierce is stepping up and leading this team thru experience, and quite frankly you win big games with backcourts either in the NCAA or the NBA in the post season and Washington’s has performed as well as any in the post season.  Washington is 8-1 SU on the road the past 2 years in the post season!  And getting 6!

Play 2 Units on the Wizards.  

Chicago +4.5 to 5 

JR Smith Out, Kevin Love out, and some serious mis-matches inside for the Bulls to exploit.  Cleveland had an easy time in Round 1 but it gets much tougher here and Rose and Gordon are going to an issue for the Cavs backcourt to defend.  The Bulls defense 9 ppg better and with added time off it will take the Cavs some time to get the juices flowing.  Rebounding, defense, bench, turnovers – all favor the Bulls.

Play 1 Unit on Chicago     

UNDER 200.5  Hawks / Nets

Not sold on either offense with so much on the line and Atlanta does not shoot well away from home.  I expect a tight game where the Knicks eat clock and push the ball inside.  Williams is hit or miss from the outside for them and I expect Atlanta to continue to struggle from the floor in big games on the road.  Enough said.  If you noticed the3 bench points in this series are basically a non factor, around 25 average each their last 5.

Play 1 Unit on the Under in a tight one.  

OVER 206.5 Spurs / Clips

Both teams going for broke, neither team has played any defense and both teams have scorers all over the place, and a potential OT game is not out of the questions.  Spurs will do everything they can to win at home, and the bench has been scoring well for San Antonio. Over is 10-4 ATS last 14 meetings.

Play 1 Unit on the Over 

Brooklyn +9

This is real simple, I will NOT lay 9 points with a team struggling on offense and shooting 39% from the floor against anyone, let alone Brooklyn who seems to be a bad matchup for Atlanta, Especially down in the paint with Lopez.  If the Nets push the ball down low on offense and stick with that and Williams plays well, they can match up well and win. Atlanta just flat out in a funk, and then drop 9 on the spread?  The largest point margin on a win in this series is 7 points to date and with the Nets given some serious life, I will take the points all day.

Play 1 Unit on the NETS

Play a half unit on the OVER 190 in the Memphis / Portland Game.  

Memphis +3
Wrong team favored.  Portland has tried everything, but Memphis OWNS this team.  7 straight covers, 9-1 ATS the last 10 and just too much overall talent against a beat up Portland team.  I can do stats all day long, but with Memphis scoring like they are, they are a very dangerous team and they will put away the Blazers tonight.  In their last 5 games Portland has allowed 105 ppg while scoring only 93.  That does not fare well in the post season, never has, never will.  Expect a better defensive effort from Memphis tonight as well.
Play 1 Unit on Memphis

Wizards / Raptors Over 197.5

All stops will be pulled out in this one as Toronto try's to stave off elimination but it is the offense of Washington, and Pierce kicking it in big time has helped.  The Wiz backcourt has been solid and look for Toronto to play up-tempo and go for broke.  The last 2 flew over the total and I like another shootout in Washington today. 

Play 1 Unit on the Over 

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Atlanta -2.5
Short and Sweet here.  Atlanta is better in Points, Defense, Turnovers, Player talent, FG% and coaching as well as having more than 1 player to go to to make a big shot when it counts.  The Nets played some decent ball in game 2, and yet Atlanta comes in here 2-0 and have yet to play a real good game. The line adjustment is 7 points from game 2, that is too many.  The Hawks have failed to cover the spread in this series and yet have cover 5 out of the last 6 in Brooklyn and have won 7 straight in this series dating back to April of last year.
Play 2 Units on Atlanta  

OVER 193.5  Wizards / Raptors

The last game flew over the total, albeit an OT game, but as you have seen as games progress into the series the scoring increases.  Washington will have a 100 points at home gents, their backcourt is on fire and getting easy buckets too with rebounding, and you can expect Toronto to pull out all the stops on offense to keep pace as they are do or die tonight down 0-2.  The bench scoring combined for both teams in their last 5 games overall is 77 ppg which is very high.  All trends point to under here, I am not buying it.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER  

New Orleans +5.5

(Line is shooting – GOOD!) Looks easy to take Golden State but with Gordon and Davis hitting shots at home, and a home crowd I l like the Pelicans to make a stand, and they have been given some very generous points here and I will grab them  New Orleans has been very pesky the first 2 games but simply ran out of gas late, I think the home crowd fuels them and they make this one very interesting, they are 5-0 ATS their last 5 at home. 

Play 1 Unit on New Orleans  

Portland +6

Kind of a zig zag theory wager here, but Portland could shoot any worse than they did in Game 1, just 33%.  Memphis managed just 14 points in the fourth quarter in Game 1 on offense and I feel if Portland can engage their guard play better and hit better than they did from 3 point range taking 26 shots and hitting 8, they can make this close game.  Memphis took just 9 three point shots and made 3.  Memphis’s bench was key in game one, but I expect Portland's starters to get more minutes and produce points here, and hang within this number.

Play 1 Unit on Portland 

Washington +5

Took them in game 1, they won SU in OT and now oddsmakers giving us MORE POINTS.  Paul Peirce was a huge factor in Game 1, his leadership and Playoff experience helps the Wizards, and quite frankly Washing has the best player on the floor in John Wall and they are the better team in this series.  Not worried about the zig zag theory, and Toronto might well win, however 5 is too damn many.

Play 1 Unit on Washington 

Wizards +4.5

I think Washington can win this series, in what figures to be a down to the wire every game scenario in this series.  I like John Wall and the backcourt of Washington better and their defense is underrated, at 10th place in the NBA.  I also like the rebounding ability of the Wizards as well.  Too much star power on the floor for Washington and Paul Peirce’s’ post season a huge plus in the locker room and on the floor.  Underdogs were 64% ATS in the first round last year in the NBA post season and Toronto took all 3 regular season games, one in OT and all were close, so triple revenge here for the Wiz too.

Play 1 Unit on Washington 

Washington +7

No way the Wiz lay down in this one, and Indiana fighting for their playoff life.  Both teams have played excellent defense their last 5 games and both teams scoring over 100 ppg on offense their last 5 games.  The noose is tight for the Pacers here, I like the way the defenses have played and Washington fully capable with big points involved to cover this number.

Play 1 Unit on Washington 

Sacramento +10
I have capped this way for 22 years in all sports, when 2 bad teams play and there are big points involved, take the underdog.  Neither team here playing for nothing more than getting the season over with, but George Karl returns to Denver as the coach of the Kings and will want a good showing and Sacramento's offense is vastly improved and neither team plays defense and the Kings will score enough points to hang around in this one. Laying Double Digits with Denver is insane in my opinion, and Sacramento is playing with revenge after a 10 point home loss back in January.
Play 1 Unit on the Kings 

Grizzles +8.5
Too many points here here.  The Clips are hot no doubt, but Memphis has 1 game lead on the Clips and sit second in the playoffs in a tight race and with a game with Golden State on deck, I think the Grizzles clearly want this one.  LA has point guard issues and and the last 15 games the Grizzles defense has allowed 15 ppg less than LA.  While LA scores more I think the grind it out style of Memphis keeps them within this number tonight. Griz 9-2 ATS the last 11 meetings and 4-0 ATS the last 4 in this series! 
Play 1 Unit on Memphis 

Brooklyn +9

While the Hawks have sewn up the #1 seed in the East, their main scorer Jeff Teague has failed to score double digits in either of his last 2 games coming off an ankle injury.  This is a lofty line and Atlanta has smoked the Nets by a combined 34 points in the first 2 meetings this season, I see a much tighter game as the Nets are battling for the 7-8 spot in the playoffs.  Actual preview perhaps of round 1 in the Playoffs, I think the Nets want it more and are playing good ball right now.  Nets on a 6 game win streak and Atlanta has lost 5 out of their last 8.  Too many points here.

Play 1 Unit on Brooklyn 

Indiana +1

The Bulls are mess, Butler and Rose gone from the backcourt, their vaunted efense allowing 104 ppg their last 4 games.  The Pacers beat them by 14 back on March 6, as a 6 point favorite, and now they are getting 1.5 points?  WOW.  The Bulls off 2 losses, barely beat the lowly 76ers in OT before that and have lost 5 out of their last 6 games.  The Pacers have dropped back to back games but have won 7 out of 10, and off a loss there are 6-1 ATS the next game and have covered 4 out of the last 5 in this series and despite a double digit setback to the Raptors, are playing better ball and scoring better than the Bulls.

Play 1 Unit on the Pacers.

Under 215 Golden State / Phoenix

My Power rating on this game is 208, that is a 7 point overlay.  The Suns have averaged just 92 ppg on offense their last 5, managed 79 points against Cleveland in their last game and Golden State will score here but their average in their last 5 games of 205 seems about right here. 

Play 1 Unit on the Under.  

Houston -3.5

Houston took a beating last night after having a huge lead on Atlanta only to lose the game without start Harden who returns tonight, and you can bet the Rockets will be dialed in for this one. V Not sold on Memphis on the road by any means.  This is a battle of two teams that will see that playoffs and both teams have studs all over the floor.  Harden and Gasol both lead their teams in points in the last meeting which was a Houston win by 6 in OT the day after Christmas.

I cannot back a team who managed 82 points total in an 11 point loss to Utah in their last game.  As a matter of fact the Grizzles are in a slump and have lost 3 out of their last 4 games and as a note, the offense is struggling and in 1 of those 3 losses the Griz managed just 79 points.  Rockets all the way at home here. Randolph is out for this game, that is HUGE.   Griz 3-8 ATS the last 11 in Houston and the Rockets are 6-0 ATS at home the last 6 opponents they faced there with a winning record.

Play 2 Units on Houston

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UNDER 199  Grizzles / Clippers

Memphis’s defense is awesome and halve already played to a 87-90 total in recent days and now this line at Memphis where they shut people down?  That said I also realize the Clippers who are struggling right now play little defense but Memphis is not an offensive juggernaut either.  Memphis has scored 92 and allowed 94 in their last 5 games.  Not good numbers for a winning record but good numbers for an UNDER play here.  Plus they just allowed Sacramento of all people 102 points and rest assured of a better defensive effort tonight in a big game where their main priority is to slow the pace because that is how you beat the Clippers who are without their leading scorer in Blake Griffin.

Play 1 Unit on the Under.

OK City -4

I LOVE to fade teams off playing Denver in the Altitude and then play the next night.  The NBA is all about scheduling spots gents, and lets be sure to notice as well the Thunder are 7-0 their last games and on a 9-1 run and Westbrook has been unstoppable.  While Durant is out I still like the Thunder who are deep, talented and well rested tonight against a team who has won 2 games in their last 10 games, both against bottom feeders and traded away their best player last week.

Play 2 Units on OK City

Miami Heat -2.5

Not sold on Orlando and comparable teams they played last week and struggled with, the Heat blew those same teams out and are in a playoff position mode right now, even without star Bosh on the floor.  Their free agent pick-ups are going to help. I think this is a very cheap line tonight considering Miami is flat out better.   Deng, Wade, Chalmers now kicking in, better line up that the Magic.  Also playing with revenge as Orlando beat Miami in their own house back in late December.  Orlando has won 3 in a row but two of those wins were against the Sixers and Knicks so those out the window.  Heat offense is clicking.

Play 1 Unit on Miami

Half Unit BONUS Play on:  VCU -1.5  

Golden State -5

Even without Curry here, who is 50/50 for tonight I like the Warriors here as Washington is in free fall and John Wall has hit the wall shooting as of late.  The Wiz have scored only 89 points in each of their last 2 games and they missed the cover by a whopping 54 points OVER the spread in their last 2 games.  I will take the best team in basketball who is off a loss at Indiana and will be focused here tonight.

Play 1 Unit on Golden State

Portland -4.5

Blazers vastly better, added to the roster yesterday and the Jazz traded away more than 1 good player.  Kanter and Novak are gone, Utah has issues scoring, Portland does not and the Blazers are a full blown playoff team and are 4-1 ATS the last 5 games in Utah.  I like them tonight and the line has dropped a full point.

Play 1 Unit on Portland 

San Antonio -3

I am going to make this short and Sweet.  A long layoff teams come out rusty and at times unpredictable.  Not the case with the veteran Spurs, they are experienced and well coached.  Blake Griffin is out for LA, he had 31 points in the previous meeting.  Huge blow to Clippers no matter how well Jordan is playing.  Spurs defense is VASTLY better than the Clippers and will be a big factor in this game.

Play 1 Unit on San Antonio

Grizzles +5.5 to 6

I think Memphis is the better team, especially defensively.  OK City caught the Clippers shorthanded and at the end of a road trip in a blowout win and this line reflects the publics perception that OK City is back on track.  They are just 5-11-1 ATS against teams with over a .500 record and their frontcourt and low post play should get dominated with the Grizzles big guys.  Memphis just won a game in this series at home about 2 weeks agio by 9 points and Memphis is a great road team.

Play 2 Units on Memphis

Utah +5.5

Davis is out for New Orleans which is their whole team basically, he makes them go.,  The Pelicans have allowed 105 ppg their last 5 games while scoring only 100, that is not a good thing as Utah plays some defense and is playing a better brand of Hoops right now.  I will take the points here.

Play 1 Unit on Utah

BONUS PLAY:  Iowa State+5.5  – Must win road game, Cyclones can light it up in a hurry, have better shooters, and I realize the OU defense is good but can they score?  I will take the points as OU allowed 81 to ISU in their last game in Ames.  

Memphis -1.5
Grizzles off a loss but Atlanta who has dominated the NBA the past 2 months is off a HUGE Win against Golden St and this is massive letdown spot.  Memphis off an embarrassing loss against Minnesota, but they are dialed in here, and they are 47-22-2 ATS at home the last 71 games and they play great defense at home as well, plus are playing with revenge  after losing in January to the Hawks.  I can easily see Atlanta struggling here and Memphis winning by 6-8 points.  It is all about scheduling in the NBA, and this is a good spot for the Griz.
Play 1 Unit on Memphis. 

Toronto / LA Clippers UNDER 211.5

I have a power rating of this game at 204, and my numbers are always fairly precise guys, and rarely do you see an overlay of more than 3 or 4 points.  Look at the last 5 games these 2 have played and I find Toronto’s defense allowing 106 and the Clips at 97.  In fact LA has went under in 7 out of their last 10 games.  I expect a tight game between 2 teams both off a loss and under the number tonight.  I have it at 204.

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER 

Phoenix +4.5

Not sold on Portland even at home here, they are in a slide.  The Suns ALWAYS give the Blazers fits and have won 7 out of the last 9 in this series including about 3 weeks ago.  Tight one to the end, points attractive.

Play 1 Unit on the Suns

Dallas -3

Play one unit on the Mavs who are heating up but off a loss at Golden State, both teams off losses at GS.  Dallas deeper and better here.

Play 1 Unit on Dallas

Golden State -9
The Warriors offense is a mis-match against the defense of the Kings.  As a matter of fact the Warriors in their last 5 games against the Kings have averaged over 10 points OVER THE SPREAD.  GS laid 15.5 in the last game played back on 1/23, and beat them by 25.  GS got back on the right track the other day with a goods second half and they are a total mis-match for Sacramento with every stat advantage except free throws.
Play 1 Unit on Golden State

Houston -6

Rockets doing just fine without Dwight Howard, they have all 3 games in his absence and Boston after a couple of good games and a rare road win are back to normal, getting beat by 12 to lowly Minnesota on Wednesday Night.  Houston has won 7 out of the last 9 meetings in this series and won by 14 already once this year.  Houston bench scoring and depth is a huge advantage and Houston’s defense forced 24 turnovers in their last game against Dallas, and Houston has covered 10 out of the last 13 in Boston.  Houston tends to beat up bad teams, they have covered 11 out of their last 12 games against a team with a losing record.

Play 1 Unit on the Rockets

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Boston +7.5 to 8 

The Celtics playing some good hoops, finally got over the hump on the road trip, beat Portland, and gave Golden State all they wanted.  Utah’s offense has been in the tank the last 5 games at 92 ppg while the Celtics have found some offense in this road trip and have put up 99 ppg on offense their last 5.  Boston also has a good advantage on the glass in this matchup and I feel almost 8 points, which is a ton of points in the NBA, it very generous and I will gladly take the points.  Utah’s 3-2 stretch with these averages do not impress me, the teams they beat were the Nets, Lakers and Bucks, all of whom are free falling.

Play 1 Unit on Boston 

Golden State -8

The red hot Warriors just beat Houston on the road by 25 and while the Rockets may cut into that deficit alittle, they are allowing 109 ppg on thee defensive side of the ball their last 5 games and in the Warriors last 5 games they have averaged 117 ppg on offense, and at home they are 18-1 SU and are vastly better than Houston.  GS off a 42 point win over the Nuggets after beating Houston by 25 this past weekend…red hot, and riding them here at home.  Golden St have covered the last 4 games in this series dating back through last season by an average of 10 points OVER THE SPREAD!

Play 2 Units on Golden State   

Detroit +8

SCHEDULING SPOT.  This is a good one for Detroit who is playing with revenge off a 3 point loss to Atlanta where they lost the game a mere 3 points shooting less than 40% from the floor in that game.  Atlanta off a grueling road trip that saw them face some of the best teams in the East and some hard fought wins, but 4 games in 5 days and return home laying a big number against a hot team is a TAKE for the Pistons who should compete well here tonight.  The 12 game streak has to end sometime as now the hype is building, tonight could be the night, but I like the points here big time.  Detroit good $$ on the road covering 7 of their last roadies in a row.

Play 1 Unit on Detroit