Denver +1.5

Three reasons here why I am going against the red hot Clippers. This line is too easy and I smell a rat. Denver just lost at home last week to the Clips so I like the revenge angle. Also last night LA blew their wad in a hard fought barn burner type game at Utag in the altitude. Returning home with fatuige and playing a rested Denver team with revnge is a tough spot. Denver is a hell of a road bet as well, one of the better ones in the NBA, they are 22-6 ATS their last 28 road games and against the NBA Pacific division are 8-1 ATS their last 9. Denver has won 5 out of their last 6 roadies and the only loss was an OT loss st Memphis. Fresher legs with revenge. If oddsmakers thought LA would dominate at home where they are 10-2 this year, this line would be 3 or higher. The public will drive this up during the dau, keep an eye on the line as you may get added value.

Play 1 Unit on Denver

Indiana Pacers -3

The entire world is on Orlando to bounce back after scoring 56 points last night in an NBA game at Boston, and bear in mind Boston had a couple of starters out. 16 for 65 from floor? Are you kidding me. So now you travel to a team who has beat up on some good teams and is 11-4 on the year and have a solid home court advantage. Orlando stinks against the NBA central division, just 2-8 their last 10 ATS against these teams. I do not think you just Bounceback and fix it all in one game on back to back nights in one of the most horrific performances of the past decade. Indiana playing with 5 time revenge here, and no doubt love the fact the Magic on back on their heels.

Play 1 Unit on Indiana

Bonus half unit NCAA Play - Bradley +7. Both team bad, too many points for SIU to lay, take the points in a tight one.

Atlanta -1

Back to back upset wins for the Bucks, a great fade spot at home after playing last night in Miami where they beat up the Heat by 9 as a 9 point pup. Now they return home after beating both the Knicks and Heat on the road. Atlanta on a solid roll, and have had a days rest after pounding Cleveland by 27 points where they scored 121 points. Love the Hawks here. Had this line at 4 with home court figured in, think they win by 6-8 points.

Play 1 Unit on Atlanta

Bonus Totals Play half unit. Play OVER 187.5 in Bulls and Nets game. Rose is back!

OVER Washington and Philly


Oddsmakers no doubt see the recent under trends and the fact that while the 76'ers only scored 79 in their last game, they average almost 100 ppg so this line is weak, also based on the fact Washington stunk it up their last time out. No doubt the Sixers play defense, but I like to take a team off a bad performance on offense the next game out, I see them adding 20 points to that total scored tonight. Woefully bad are the Wizards who managed a paltry 68 points on offense gainst the Bulls in their last game. UNREAL for an NBA team to score less than 70 in any game and I also expect their main focus tonight to be scoring points. These two have went over the the total the last 4 times they met and 8 out of the last 10. Look for both teams to step it up on offense and exceed the total.


Play 2 Units on the OVER

Miami -4.5

Miami has had a days rest while the Clips got beat in Portland last night and travel home to face a pissed off Heat team where they are off an OT loss to Golden State where they managed 18% from 3 point range, missed a ton of free throws and had 22 turnovers. That is keeping this line down. Huge game in LA tonight, Miami will rise to the occasion.

Play 1 Unit on Miami

OVER 189 Toronto / Sacramento

The Kings got lit up last night for 112 points and are allowing over 108 ppg on the road this season. Neither one of the two teams did anything on offense last night which keeps this line down, as I think it should be around 194. With the Raptors playing their 3rd game in 3 days, and being at home I think their defense will surrender some points based on fatigue and they will bounce back on offense night after getting beat by the winless Wizards and playing like hell on offense. Sacramento had scored over 100 in their two games leading up to last night.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER

Dallas +1.5

The Mavs woke up after a dismal start defending their NBA title and this series has been owned by San Antonio as of late. Dallas wants to change that. Ginobili is out for the Spurs, and as he goes, the Spurs go. Dallas has covered 10 out of their last 13 on the road and would love to beat their in state rivals tonight and have the better team overall in my opinion and are getting points. Dallas recent success has been the fact they are playing defense, and it continues tonight.

Play 1 Unit on Dallas

Play a half unit on Portland -3 to 3.5

Atlanta +9.5



Off a big win against the Heat, I like Atlanta to keep this close. T Mac looked great this weekend against the Heat with 16 off the bench, and the Hawks are a sleeper team who can put up some points in a hurry. Many say this is a let down spot, but getting this many points with a capable team in the NBA. Great backcourt matchup here and with both teams allowing less than 90 ppg on defenser their last 3 games, I like the big number here in what should be a good game. Atlanta sneaky good and play hard. Lots of points in an NBA game, I will gladly take them.



Play 1 Unit on Atlanta. Play a HLAF UNIT Bonus Play on Utah -2

Sacramento +8

I liked this team on paper and like them even more getting points of this nature. I think Sacramento beating the Lakers was not surprise as I had them on my radar screen as a team to look out for, and oddsmakers have given Portland a ton of respect here while not giving the Kings any, they are a solid team and this is way too many points, and will grab them even on the road. I like it anytime early in the season I can get over 6 points in the NBA with capable team. Portland struggled to beat Philly in their opener, look for the Kings to give them all they want and then some. Thornton and Evans at guard are a lethal tandem for the Kings.

Play 1 Unit on Sacramento. Best of Luck. TG

Miami Heat +1.5

No doubt as bad as Miami played and as bad as Dallas Shot the ball, Miami has more to gain and no doubt has more talent in this series. Dallas had almost 6 minutes of Miami not scoring in the 4th quarter of the last game and managed a win by 3 points, and were damn lucky to do it. No outside shooters for Dallas except Dirk is killing them, as Terry is hit and miss. The bench played better but not well enough in Game 4 in my opnion and with LeBron taking massive heat in the press for laying an egg last game, they guy will come up big and be the key difference in this game, and Dallas still has no answer for Wade. Not sure Dirks stamina after the last game playing sick will be 100% either I just do not see anyone stepping up and scoring for Dallas enough to make up for that, and Haslem has played excellent defense on Dirk as well. Miami flat out the better team right now and I always take the better team in big games getting points, and have for 20 years and have won far more than I have lost in this scenario.

Play 1 Unit on Miami and a half a unit on the UNDER 184.5

Dallas -3

This line jumped for a reason, Dallas will win this game. The main reason for the Mavs decline in this series to date is their BENCH scoring has not been up to par. I can really see this as a key point in this MUST WIN GAME for the Mavs on Tuesday. Going down to 3-1 in the series is without question a death sentence for Dallas. Look for Terry to take more shots and for Dallas to close the gap on defense. Miami was lucky to win game 1, and Dallas overcame a huge number to win on the road in game 2, and Dallas let game 3 slip away with double digit leads at home. Dallas hitting 83 percent from the charity stripe and no doubt, as I have seen for the past 20 seasons, a home team in the NBA finals gets the majority of the calls, and Miami has been living at the free throw line in the post season, and Dallas will get the better calls. You know the NBA likes a full 7 games in the Finals for money making opportunities, so read between the lines there gents. Dallas a good team at home have covered 9 out of their last 12, and have went 20-8-1 ATS their last 29 games, I do not see them losing ATS ro SU back to back with the entire finals up for grabs in this game, especially at home.

Play 2.5 Units on Dallas

Dallas +4.5

Lost a half point here by the time I figured out Oddsmakers based this on public perception. Miamis defense is good and I am hearing allot of about it, but Dallas held the Lakers to 94 or under in every game in that series, and Dallas is also 3-0 SU and ATS in series openers in the post season this year. The BENCH of Dallas will play a huge role in this series. Yes, Dallas has 1 star and Miami has 3, but Dallas plays great team ball and know how to win games and never panic when they are down. Like Dallas and this number. Dallas offense 105 ppg last 5 games, Miami 89. Defense might win it, but Dallas can flat out score.

Series half unit Wager on Dallas +165

Dirk Nowitzki +130 MVP half unit

Play 1 Unit on Dllas in Game 1.

Chicago -3

Banking on two things tonight. The Bulls at home shoot better and they hit the glass like none other. Look also for the Bulls to play some defense. They had numerous chances in the last game to win and blew it, basically because they could not hit shots when it counted, some of them very simple sho9ots. With a loud and proud home crowd tonight, the number 1 seed in the east will not go down without a fight tonight and I expect some top screens and for Kouver and Deng to get some open looks and nail down some shots, and for Rose to get it going at home as well. Home team 8-3-1 ATS in this series, look for Chicago to get the win

Play 1 Unit on Chicago

Chicago -2


Again home court is Huge. Again, no matter how much film the Heat watch, they have SERIOUS ISSUES in the paint and with their frontcourt against the Bulls, they do not match up well. A Huge blowout win for the Bulls in game 1 as the Heat have no answer for Rose, and the Bulls defense is very pesky as evidenced by the last game which was no fluke. James can be contained, the Heat even tried him at forward with no success. The Bulls have answers for the Heat and at home, I like to go to 5-0 on the year against the Heat and 2-0 in the series.



Play 1 Unit on Chicago

Under 193.5 Dallas / Memphis

No Brainer here. BOTH teams won their last series with defense and these defenses are VASTLY underrated by oddsmakers apparently. The Thunder held a high octane Grizzlies team to under 40% from the floor in 4 of 5 games, throwing out the OT game which was high scoring. They won that series with Defense. How about the Mavs, with offensive talent all over the place, they beat the Lakers with 1 thing, and that was GREAT defense, allowing the high powered Lakers to 94 points or under in all four games, and shutting down Kobe Bryant. This one goes under.

Play 1 Unit on the Under

Bulls -2

A CHEAP number and little respect for the best overall seed in the east, a team that has covered 15 out of 20 games at home against teams with a recotrd above .600, and have the leauge MVP which Miasmi has no answer for. Chicago off what some would argue the best game of the playoffs against Atlanta and home court in the Eastern Finals is a HUGE deal. Chicago swept 3-0 in trhe regular season and when healthy like tonight, pose numerous matchup issues for Miami.

Play 1 Unit on Chicago

Thunder +1.5

As was the case the past 2 days, including last nights HUGE 3 star road win play on the Bulls, the BETTER TEAM this late in round 2 wins these games. The NBA Playoffs has NOT seen a game 7 yet this year and I do not see that happening here. OK City has had HUGE leads in ALL games played in this series and melted down a couple of times. Memphis has done a nice job on Durrant in this series late in the games so look for OK City to set them up with Durrant drawing double teams and lots of dish outs to open players. A slower pace than normal should be expected (the total is suspect to go under) but after OK City held Memphis to 72 points, it is now known they CAN play defense and at a slower pace, so if that is what Memphis wants, OK City will adjust and win this game by 4-7 points tonight. Great dog spot with the better team.

Play 1 Unit on OK City

Chicago -3.5

I like the Bulls in this spot, after a blowout win at home, you find this deep into the playoffs, that the BETTER team pulls out games. There is a 5 point line adjustment here by oddsmakers and a totally public line here. Lots of value in the number guys. As evidenced last night, both the better teams won big, and I see the same thing tonight, and have seen this scenario for years as a capper. Chicago is a beast on the road covering 11 out of their last 16 games on the road, they close the series out tonight and try not to give Miami too big of a lead in the time to rest department. Atlanta has no answer for Rose, expect him to be asked by coaches to get it done big tonight and he will respond and be the difference.

Play 2 Units on Chicago.

OVER 197 Memphis and OK City

The games in OK City the first 2 in this series averaged 215 ppg. That is 17 points over this total. 3 out of the 4 in this series have went over, and not counting the OT game, bottom line is that both these teams like to score and push the ball, and OK city LOVES to push the pace and the ball up the floor and play little defense at home. Both backcourts are not afraid to shoot it, especially OK City and I see this game landing around 208. Neither team in this series will play conservative at this point, trust me. They have proven that over 4 games, nothing will change.

Play 1 Unit on the Over.

Memphis +6.5

Until someone beats these guys, and beats them badly, I am going to ride them. This again is too many points. Last night was evidence alone that big underdogs this deep into the playoffs cover numbers, and last night BOTH won outright. Memphis has not convinced oddsmakers after beating the number 1 seed in the West and now after waxing OK City in game 1 , they have convinced me they are totally for real. If you look at the stats in that game, they were even expect for turnovers, and from 3 point range OK City was a full 10 percent better! Memphis forced allot of those turnovers and I expect another shootout tonight and the Griz are dangerous because they are confident.

Play 1 Unit on Memphis

Bonus Play

Orlando -2

Orlando finally opened up in the last game with a 25 point win, and that is hard to recover from in Atlantas corner here. Orlando dominated the game and put together a full 4 quarter effort. THIS IS TO STAVE OFF ELIMINATION, and ANYTIME a team is motivated, and you know it, like the Spurs last night, they will win and cover numbers when they are the better team. Orlando only managed 41 percent from the floor in a blowout and Howard managed 8 points total, so although Atlanta shot poorly, the defense of Orlando stepped up and the blowout was not an indicatrion of a huge night shooting for ther Magic. Expect Orlando to tighten the belt again on defense and win this by 6-8 points and take it to the full 7 games.

Play 1 Unit on Orlando

UNDER 187.5 Chicago and Indiana

Well I guess I will go against my reverse trend angle and not take the over here tonight as it is due, but I think both teams will tighten up on defense big time tonight in this crucial game for both teams. The Key to this is that Rose for Chicago is not a 100 percent. The Key to the Bulls offense is him penetrating to the hoops and then either drawing added defenders to open up other shooters or him just plain and simple going off for huge points. This will disrupt the Bulls offense and look for the Pacers to clamp down in man to man when this happens. Points should be at a premium tonight.

Play 1 Unit on the Under

Bonus Play

Dallas -5

This was basically the same number in the first 2 games at Dallas, and the Mavs covered them both with ease. Also Dallas plays far better at home and I expect them to quite frankly be pissed off after the game 4 debacle where they blew a 23 point lead and were defeated in dramatic fashion. Do not expect Brandon Roy to have 18 fourth quarter points and I expect a Mavs beat down here by 10 at home. Lightning does not strike twice for Blazers.

Play 1 Unit on Dallas

Spurs +2

Short and Sweet today. One of the Best teams in the NBA a dog here? I am NOT laying points with a team who has 1 post season game out of 13 attempts in the franschise history against the Spurs who split at home here and want to make a statement. Spurs better team gettingt points period. A complete take on the number. The better teams start pulling away in the series at this point on the road or at home as evidenced by the Celtics last night who also were in a tight series and I think the Spurs do the same tonight. The Spurs EXPERIENCE in this scenario is key, they know better than to let someone hang around.

Play 1.5 to 2 Units on San Antonio

OVER 191.5 New York and Boston

This is lowest this total has been since the opening of this series. Oddsmakers have adjusted this number down, which is the wrong way to go. I lost out on the Over in game two by 3 points, as both teams opened up sluggish in that one, I do not see that tonight. Many times a change in venues changes the pace of the game, and the only way NY can win it, even if they are slightly banged up, is to push the pace at home, which I think they will. Both teams in series like this as you look at other games, open it up as they get more comfortable. I like this number to be around 198 tonight and I am making a move on the Over in this one. NY averages 108 ppg at home this year. All trend also point to the Under, time for that to flip flop, which always happens.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER

BONUS PLAY. Play half a unit on the OVER 180.5 in the Orlando and Atlanta Game

Dallas +5.5



Not drinking the Koolaid and Portland here. I saw the last game in person in Dallas, and Dallas is flat out better even on the road. Portland shot 48 percent from the floor and 50 percent from 3 point range and still lost by a big number. They have no answer for Dirk and the Mavs bench is outplaying them too. Unlike many of the other series with upsets and dog covers all over the place, Dallas has been the one consistent team doing what they should be in round 1 against a weaker opponent, winning and covering numbers. This is a ton of points, at home or not, I like Dallas to win outright. yes they are begging us to grab the points here, I will oblige.



Play 1 Unit on the Mavs.

Hornets +11.5



The underdog in this series, mainly the Hornets, are 15-4 ATS the last 19 and giving a team who won by 9 on the road almost 12 points against the Lakers, who really have not played but 1 solid game in 3 weeks is too many points. The dogs are dominating the playoffs and oddsmakers are slow to adjust any points for that so I will take the generous points here and a dog cover.



Play 1 Unit on New Orleans.

Over 192.5 Celtics - Knicks

Last night I exposed a weak line over adjusted as a reaction by oddsmakers on a game 1 result in the Bulls Game. Tonight after the low scoring game 1, this line has jumped 4 points from the opening game and I like to take a position on a line swing like this within 2 days. Both teams will be looser and i LIKE THIS ONE TO TOP THE NUMBER BY 8 POINTS.

Play 1 Unit on the Over

UNDER 192.5 Chicago / Indiana

We have a 5 point jump over game 1 where the totals play 188. I am capping the number here and 192 is too high. Game 1 was a debacle for the Bulls, and it managed 203 points. Chicago did not play their patented defense but I assure you they will this game. Boozer got smoked in the paint and out rebounded, that wont happen again either. The 5 point jump adds value to an adjusted number on power ratings I have at 186, that is a 7 point overlay worth a 1 Unit move.

Play 1 Unit on the Under.

OVER Charlotte and New Jersey

Team who are out of the playoff picture tend to have little effort on defense. This is a FCAT. This total is 7 points off the mark in my power ratings. I had the Over on Charlotte yesterday which flew over the total for 213 combined points against the Pistons. Their last 3 have flown over the Total. The Nets are 5-2 ATS their last 7 on the over and I expect them to bring some offense in their last home game of the season and for the Charlotte to play little defense. Both teams can score here, look for a track meet in this one!

Play 1 Unit on the Over.

Play 1 Unit on the Over 195 here in this game. Both teams last 5 games have results in both teams allowing over 100 ppg on defense as a average, and Charlotte is 14-4 ATS on their last 18 home games on the OVER. Both teams scoring well, and Destroit has been lights iout on offense the last month. Cheap line here.

Play 1 Unit on ther OVER

OVER 188 Jazz and Blazers

I LOVE this over reaction from oddsmakers on recent results on offense for both teams, this one should fly over. I have a scoring model of 200 here, that is a 12 point overlay which is huge. 7 out of the last 9 in this series have went over averaging over 200 ppg in the process. I have to think on national TV both teams will open it up, as they usually do in this heated series anyway and love this double digit overlay.

Play 2 Units on the OVER

Houston +3 to 3.5

Fighting for a playoff spot as I mentioned in my video podcast this week, Houston is a team to keep an eye on. Off a blowout win at New jersey last night, it should be noted that Houston is now 8-3 SU their last 11 road games, and that is a big deal in the NBA gents. Houston can score lights out and have numerous advantages here with matchups. Philly being a short fav at home against good teams is not profitable for their backers dropping 6 out of 9 games at home when favored by 3 to 6 points. Houston on a roll, and am taking them as a dog here.

Play 1 Unit on Houston

Boston -2

Indiana with nothing to play for and Boston still battling for the top seed in the East. As I watching NBA channel last night I noticed Kevin Garnett calling out his team for lack of effort as they barely beat Minny and they have dropped 2 out of their last 3, and both losses at home. Boston needs a winnable road game and this is it. They have dominated Indy covering the last 4 in a row and covering 9 out of the last 12 in the series. Indy has lost their last 2 games by a total of 29 points to Detroit and Sacramento, wow. Boston 5-5 SU their last 10 and needing a win badly as it is time to step up and get in playoff form, and KNOWING they are motivated tonight, should find them winning this by 10 if they show up.

Play 1 Unit on Boston

Play a half unit on Charlotte at home laying -1.5.

Chicago -4.5

I do not care what anyone says, the Bulls are totally for real and off a whopping 40 point win on Monday over the hapless Kings, Chicago barely broke a sweat. Atlanta covered Sunday against a patsy, but face a possible number one seed in the Bulls, and even at home this is a mis match unless Da Bulls fail to get off the bus. Atlanta cannot be overlooked because they are a good foe, and these 2 have split the last 2 games. Chicago on a major roll right now and all clicking on offense big time. Atlanta is very hit and miss as a team and are 2-10 ATS off a win. They cannot string together wins, but the Bulls can and they have a complete team playing together. The Bulls have covered 20 out of their last 27 games, that is impressive, I will ride them tonight and they should dominate the post and frontcourt here.

Play 1 Unit on Chicago. BONUS PLAY

Atlanta / Detroit UNDER 189.5 to 190

Detroit struggles on offense ont he road and Atalntas offense in the tank at less than 90 ppg ibn their last 5 games. Also the last 5 games in this series have went Under and the Pistons are 22-12 on the Under in the 34 road games that Detroit has had. Wanted to sniff the side here and Atlanta by 7 a ton of points but Detroit deplorable on the road. Like the Under here.

Play 1 Unit on the Under.

OVER 191.5 Boston / Philly

The last meeting these 2 managed 164 points but the shooting percentages were 43 percent or below for both teams and and Philly managed 38 percent and both were deplorable, 20 percent for Philly. That will not repeat itself. Philly making a run and Boston will show up off a loss ready to play. Phillys numbers on offense is 108 ppg their last 4 and Bostons 104 ppg. Phillys last 4 games have gone way Over the total and Bostons last 4 games is 3-1 on the over. Shootout in Philly tonight. Line opned at 188 and oddsmakers set it too low and it needs to be 196 or higher, good value here.

Play 1 Unit on the Over

NY +6

I have been hitting NY in key spots against good teams as a dog over the last month and they have been winning outright. This one will be a shootout in Dallas and the line is 215 on the total and the frontcourt and low position in my opinion favor NY. NY hits the glass better and that means cheap buckets on a big number. NY is a good road team covering 20 out of 27 roadies. Billups is out but Dallas has injury issues as well with Marion and Peja both iffy at best. Fields and Douglas both playing well up top of NY and this opened at 7 and is dropping, get on it early.

Play 1 Unit on NY

Detroit +11.5

A play against San Antonio as much as anything, they have been on a streak but not covering games and they really stink as a double digit favorite as well. They just got absolutely destroyed against the Lakers and have covered just 3 out of 10 as a double digit favorite this season to date. Yes they are better, but play to the level of your competition is not conducive to covering big numbers. Detroit capable of putting up points and hanging in there, I will grab the huge points and look for a 4-6 point Spurs win.

Play 1 Unit on Detroit

NY Knicks -6.5

Impressive win on the road at Atlanta for the Knicks in blowout fashion their last game, while Utah has managed just 2 wins in their last 8, and have a deep and costly injury list for this game. Billups is expected to start for NY and with the firepower they have, and Utah walking into this one limping and thin on the bench, and covering just 8 out of their last 31 games, and they are 3-13 ATS the last 16 in this series, I like NY to win BIG by 10 points. Although the ATS record is deplorable against NY, Utah has won the last 4 in the series and NY with 4 time revenge in this spot against a wounded team, with a weak frontcourt and no more Williams up top, is a take.

Play 1.5 Units on the NY Knicks.

Miami -5

A brutal 3 losses for the Heat who now are facing critics big time in the media and also a payback game ofter a loss on TNT for the Heat, at home, against the Bulls I love them. Chicago is a different animal away from home, and while the Heat struggle against good teams and have all season, the loss at the Spurs was to the point of embarrassing and they have lost 2 to the Bulls this season. This is Miamis biggest game of the second half of the season and experience tells me to take them. A wounded and rabid dog backed into a corner here..they come out swinging here and pull out a big win. The line says it all, they should be -3 at most and this line reflects oddsmakers knowledge that Miami is due for a breakout win. A MUST WIN GAME. Miami is -225 on the monelyine for a reason.

Play 1 Unit on Miami

Orlando +5

I will go against Miami against good teams till they start consistently beating them. Orlando avenging a home loss here, and I have been Miami struggle against teams in the Top 10 in the NBA all year including getting waxed last week on TNT against Chicago. They are at home here, but Chris Bosh struggles against good big men, and Howard one of the best. I do not see points production from him to be too large tonight. I also think the line is way too high in this game, I simply cannot bank on Miami against a quality team laying a number at home or on the road.

Play 1 Unit on Orlando

Portland -3

Set up line?? Maybe but with Roy out and Fernandez a question mark, I am all over the better team here who is avenging a blowout loss at home against the Kings back in January. Sac. Has won 8 games at home all season and Portland making noise here in a playoff run and road wins are hard to come by, and the Kings have injury issues of their own and are allowing a whopping 110 ppg on defense their last 5 games. Lower scoring one here perhaps but I like Portland with some payback in mind even if they are shorthanded.

Play 1 Unit on Portland

NY Knicks +9

No idea why all the fuss with Miami laying this huge number. Again as I said on Thursday against the Bulls, Miami's record of beating good teams is not all that impressive. Teams in the Top 10-15 in the NBA have played Miami at basically .500 ball. With Mello in the house and a strong inside game for NY, they will not go quietly into the night. NY is a solid road team for ATS backers going 16-6 their last 22 ATS on the road. Mello is playing tonight with a sore elbow and NY is off am embarrassing loss to the Cavs and will step up on TV against Miami for this one and make it a game, but with that loss we are getting better value on the line taking the dog here.

Play 1 Unit on the Knicks.

Boston -4

This will likely be the first game for newcomers Felton, Gallinari, Mozgov, and Chandler at home in Denver. Yeas they ripped Memphis after Carmelo headed to the bright lights of NYC, but the Nuggets face a powerful and motivated team in the Celtics tonight on national TV, and Boston is not going to klet this slip away. The Celtics are road warriors laying small numbers, as a matter of fact they are 11-4 ATS laying 4.5 points or less on the road their last 15. Too much frontcourt and a better backcourt. I have this number readjusted to 7 and we are getting some value here at just over a 3 pointer on the line. Too much star power missing for Denver and no Billups as floor general will be an issue tonight for them against the Celtics.

Play 1 Unit on Boston.

Utah -1

Chicago on 4th game of West Coast Road swing after 2 straight losses to lesser opponents already and Utah in need of a home win here after a tough loss to OK City their last home game. Like going against teams in 3rd or 4th game out west when playing in the altitude of Utah. Been doing this angle for the last 4 years with great success. The Bulls just 3-7 ATS their last 10 road games and in a near pick em scenario, all over the Jazz tonight.

Play 1 Unit on Utah

Spurs -5.5

Spurs on fire, and have scored over 100 ppg in 8 out of their last 10 and their last road game was a blowout winner over Utah who right now is better than than Portalnd, as the Blazers are a shell of themselves with injures to all key players and they are managing 91 ppg on offense their last 5 games, and you all know that will not cut it against San Antonio who overlooks no one and will be ready to get a solid road win tonight.

Play 1 Unit on San Antonio..push it to 1.5 Units if ya like..worth ther stretch here in a double digit win IMO. Tony

OK City Thunder -5

Minny a bad team and they are deplorable against good teams with winning records just covering 16 out of 52 home games against teams above.500. Add in the fact OK City has dropped some road games, all against very good teams, and they need and are focused on winning a roadie and who better the the hapless T Wolves who have managed just 1 cover in their last 6 home games. Love against Durrant, I like Durrant in this one big time with a far better team on a mission to win a road game. OK City 11-5-1 ATS the last 17 meetings and Minny allowing 114 ppg their last 5 games and have dropped 9 out of their last 10.

Play 1 Unit on Oklahoma City. BONUS PLAYS

Dallas +3.5

Love this line. The Chicago Bulls are expected to be without Noah as well as Boozer. That does not bode well for the Bulls as Dallas just waxed the Lakers last night and Nowitzki is back in shape and healthy. Yes Derrick Rose is an issue but I like the Mavs to get back on track, even on the road. Dallas avenging a home loss back in November, and with a injured bench, off a loss to Charlotte and Dallas back on track with the star in the lineup, I do not Derrick Rose can carry the Bulls alone, especially with a frontcourt like Dallas in town.

Play 1 Unit on Dallas.

BONUS PLAY. Portland -2 to -2.5 for a Half Unit against San Francisco tonight.

Golden State -4

Golden State is back in sync and a beast at home going 6-0 ATS their last 6. The Pacers have fallen from grace covering just 5 out of their last 17 games overall and just 2 out of their last 11 on the road. Also a back to back roadie for the Pacers who last lost at the Clippers by 7, and the Pacers defense has just fallen apart as of late. Golden State is not a type of team, now that they are healthy, that you can just let run up and down the floors, and I look for GS to win this close to double digits at home where they have been very strong as of late.

Play 1 Unit on Golden State. BONUS PLAY. Play a half unit on Notre Dame -3, as they are 11-0 at home and Cincy stinks on the road.

Charlotte +9

Looking at Bostons home record does not warrant this line. Charlotte since Browns departure has won 6 out of 8 games, and 2 in a row as an outright home dog winner. Boston is 17-3 at home but their spread record is a different story. They are 5-4 SU without Garnett and he is NOT playing again tonight. This is a look past game for Boston. When they lay over 9 points at home they are just 4-13 ATS their last 17. Look for Charlotte to score enough points here to hang close as their offensive numbers the last 5 games have jumped and they are playing with purpose.

Play 1 Unit on Charlotte

Miami Heat -7

We hammered the Heat on Monday with this same game in Miami and won. Jennings, Gooden still out for the Bucks who are averaging 86 ppg on offense their last 5 while Miami has start power and averaging 108 ppg. Miami is 10-1 ATS their last 11 road games, this one is a blowout.

Play 1 Unit on Miami

UNDER 209 Denver and Sacramento

Lots of action on the Over, but Denver very thin in depth here, Martin, Lawson and JR Smith all out for this one or very very limited. You think of Denver and you think of games eclipsing 220 points all the time, but that is at home, Denver just Over in 5 out of their last 16 road games. Both teams defense allowing around 98 ppg as of late and my power rating for this is 201 which is a 7 point overlay. Denver a different animal on the road, and their backcourt will be playing tons of minutes and I do not see them scoring a ton of points in a shootout here. The Kings average just 94 ppg on the season, I like this one to be a tight one and for the total to stay Under the number tonight.

Play 1 Unit on the Under. Best of Luck, Tony George

Miami -9

Laid almost this same number on the road last night with the Heat and will lay it at home against the offensive inept Bucks without Boozer and Jennings. They have issues scoring and keeping pace in this matchup. When you are scoring 86 ppg, and worst yet you are on the road against the Heat, that is a huge issue, especially when 2 of your stars are not playing. A total mis match at the forward position here is enough to make a move and lay a number but overall the offense just cannot keep pace and look for Wade to have a big night up top as well, plus off a game a night before I expect the Heat to be sharper in this one and the Bucks last road game was a 13 point loss to the Bulls. Too much depth and a strong homecourt at 14-4 SU on the year against a team with 5 road wins.

Play 1 Unit on Miami

Miami Heat -9

Short and Sweet. Total mis match here and with Wallace out of the Bobcats, that is a HUGE hit for them in this game. Miami grabbed a win from the jaws of defeat in their last game and I expect them to come out on fire tonight and get out of the gate quick and make this one a laugher in the second half. You know LeBron and boys will put on a show for Michael Jordan who will be at this game, trust me, total focus in this one for the Heat. The Bobcats offense just a 91 ppg their last 5 and now their big scorer is out, not good against Miami who is scoring at 107 ppg their last 5.

Play 1 Unit on the Heat tonight.

Denver -4

While Denver lost yesterday at the Thunder, they are home and playing a Philly team is out manned here when looking at man to man matchups. Denver is 12-2 at home and fresh off a game, and Philly has not played since the 22nd and this is their fourth straight road game. Teams not used to the altitude and a 4 day layoff and playing in Denver is always a fade play and Phillys offense scoring only 87 ppg their last 5 is not in the type of model on offense to trade punches here late against a potent Denver team who will no doubt exceeed 100+ points here at home.

Play 1 Unit on Denver

Utah -7

The Jazz are dominating the East with a 10-1 SU record and the Cavs playing west coast teams is just deplorable. The Jazz are 8-2-1 ATS their last 11 against the NBA Central while Cleveland has managed just 3 covered ATS their last 11 games. Clevelands defense is not good and Utah is scoring lights out, I see an easy double digit win here for Utah. Utah has a bad spread record against the Cavs, it changes tonight.

Play 1 Unit on Utah

Spurs -2

DEFENSE in big games win them in the NBA. San Antonio allowing just 89 ppg their last 5 games and Denver allowing 108! Really in matchup like this that is the bottom line. Melo still debating a contract and Billups is out for Denver. The backcourt and experience factor lie with San Antonio here, along with the fact they are 8-1 SU on the road and in Denvers losses this year, many of them were against teams who played good defense.

Play 1 Unit on San Antonio.

Philly -4.5 to 5

I had a free play against the Sixers last night and they won big up in New Jersey and Philly is catching heat. Good news that they play at home against a Clipper team managing 88 ppg on offense their last 5, and Phillys defense is playing lights out right now allowing just 88 ppg their last 5 . Considering that Philly is on a 15-5 ATS run, and that the Clips are 0-10 straight up on the road, I like Philly to blow them out tonight at home. The Clippers offense will struggle with points against a better than advertised an un-noticed Philly surge in recent weeks.

Play 1 Unit on the Sixers tonight. Best of Luck. TG

Suns -5.5

Pheonix at home in a home and home series here who out stated Portland in everything but 1 category last night, 97% in free throws for Portland who hit all but 1 of 33 attempts. Look for the next day revenge for the Suns tonightI would lay up to 7 if I had to, Sunds were 50 percent from the floor and 3 point range last night as well. Look for the return favor tonight!

Play 1 Unit on the Suns....play a Half unit on Iowa -1.5 in NCAA Hoops

Denver -1.5 to 2

I always look for motivation from teams in pro sports. George Karl is going for win number 1000 tonight, in a winnable road game for Denver. Denver blew a huge lead on Sunday night against Memphis, and managed to still win despite Carmelo hitting 4 of 20 from the floor on a bad night for Denver. They are just 2-8 ATS their last 10 games but they have matchup advantages all over the floor in this one and Charlotte is 20 ppg less on offense their last 10 that Denver, a mis match here and I like Denver by 6 in this game, as the players step up for coach Karl against a very beatable team and pick up an ATS cover in the process.

Play 1 Unit on Denver

Play a half unit on Iowa -3.5 in NCAA Hoops against Northern Iowa. Avenging a bad loss last year at seasons end, doubt the Panthers can mount a charge here averaging just 59 ppg their last 5 games.

Toronto +7

I like the frontcourt matchup here especially the low post in favor of the Raptors tonight. They are solid on the road dating back to last year where they are on a 12-4 ATS road run. Indiana off 3 bad losses, granted they were on the road, by Toronto matchups up well in here in what should be a high scoring game and the Raptors spread it around in the scoring area more than the Pacers do. If Grainger gets contested and held down in scoring, Toronto could win out right, but I will take the generous points here.

Play 1 Unit on Toronto

Phoenix +2.5

OK maybe I just THINK the Suns are good like years past and they are not with a losing record. Great backcourt matchup with Curry and Nash, Richardson and Ellis, but at days end this game is about offense and the Suns rank number 1 in the NBA on offense. Yes they Warriors can score so it is a shootout, and in a shootout I will always take the better offense. The Suns are getting quality minutes off the bench, especially from Childress and Turkoglu so I am riding eh Suns as a live dog here to win by 4-6 points on the road against a game Golden State team. Bottom line is that the Spurs came in here and destroyed GS when they played no defense and the Suns will pour on the points and do it them again. The Suns have won 6 out of the last 7 in this series.

Play 1 Unit on the Suns.

Denver -8.5

The Bucks are reeling and have dropped 7 straight against the number, and the reason why is INJUURIES! All key players, especially the frontcourt, are out. They have managed 88 ppg on offense their last 8 games, playing on the road, against a team who is scoring 106 ppg their last 5 on offense and Anthony is playing tonight in Denver. The Bucks just lost by 20 points at Utah a day ago and play again on the road, in altitude again for this one. Denver will spank them tonight playing with Triple revenge from last year with the Bucks beat them 3 times SU and ATS.

Play 1 Unit on Denver

LA Lakers -5.5

Set up line? I think not, LA already beat these guys by 20+ points at the beginning of the season, and the backcourt play alone favors LA big time. As I look at every stat category, rebounding, offense, defense, fouls, fast break points, right down the line, LA is statistically superior in every handicapping angle I look at in this matchup. Memphis has covered just 2 of their last 9 games, and even on the road, LA the far better team here by 10+ if they bring it. Lakers in a foul mood off back to back losses, so not taking this one lightly. Look for a solid effort from LA tonight and to get back on track.

Play 1 Unit on the LA Lakers.

BONUS PLAY.. IOWA in NCAA Hoops +1 for a half unit Bonus play. Hawkeyes pressure defense will give Wake fits, just like VCU did

OK City -4

Dallas just not playing well on offense. Out of 88 points in a meager 4 point win over Detroit last night, Nowitzki has 42 of them. That is not spreading it around and the Mavs backcourt is not that goods in terms of scoring. OK City red hot, spread it around well, have the best player on the floor and a strong homecourt. The last 10 times these two have played, Dallas has just covered once. Backcourt advantage, low post advantage and more offense all in fav or of the Thunder. OK City has stepped up big against good opponents all year and are better than Dallas.

Play 1 Unit on OK City. BONUS TOTALS PLAY

Atlanta -2.5

Way cheap line for the Hawks tonight. Atlanta off back to back losses against the Celtics and Mavs and their last game at home was a debacle. They look to get back on track against a bottom feeder tonight. Atlantas current 2-6 SU run is not what they expected after winning 6 out of the gate but they have lost to all quality teams and the same cannot be said for the Nets, who lose to good teams as well as bad ones. I like the Hawks to rebound and focus against a very beatable road team and for Joe Johnson to have a big night.

Play 1 Unit on the Hawks

Milwaukee Bucks -3.5

Front court issues for the reeling 76ers, with Iguodla out for a week or two, and that is a much needed 13 ppg for the 76ers. Philly has managed to cover just 16 out of their last 51 home games and are on a 5 game slide giving up 103 ppg in those 5 losses. Conversely the Bucks are giving up just 89 ppg on defense their last 5 games and are turning it around with 3 out of 4 wins in their last 4 and a 17 point road win at Atlanta in there as well. Too much offense and plenty of defense for the Bucks here, the 76ers woes continue especially with a weak frontcourt due to injury

Play 1 Unit on Milwaukee

BONUS PLAYS Half Unit Each. NY Knicks +3.5 and Miami -11.5

Minnesota -5

I have not cashed the T Wolves as a fav yet this season, because they rarely are, but I have cashed them huge on the road in a big dog role. Tonight they get the hapless Clippers who do have a small advantage in the backcourt, but the T Wolves are going to dominate the frontcourt and the paint, and that equates to easy buckets, and they are at home. The Clips managed a 14 point loss to the Nets of all people in their last game as a 2 point home favorite, just unreal that they play no defense and Minny is scoring points in bunches right now. Clippers scoring 96 points and allowing 108 on defense their last 5, that will not cut it on the road and Minny hungry for win here. I usually do not lay points like this with a team that has a losing record against anyone, but it is warranted tonight. The LA Clippers have covered just 23 out of their last 70 road games, and while Minny has a 2-6 ATS home record their last 8, I like them to win by 10 in this one. The low post play, rebounding make the difference here for Minny.

Play 1 Unit on Minnesota

Atlanta -2

More or less a statement game for the Pacers at 4-4 on the year but they are without the services of guard Darren Collison who averages 15 ppg and sprained an ankle in practice yesterday and is very doubtful and surely not 100% if he plays at all. Atlanta snapped a 4 game slide by beating a decent T Wolves team by 11 on Sunday while Cleveland has been idle since Saturday after pounding the Cavs by double digits. Also Hansbrough and Foster both have ankle sprains and are questionable and the Pacers are somewhat shorthanded with talent and depth in this particular game. Atlanta perceived to be good but they have enough in the backcourt and frontcourt to compete against a shorthanded Pacers team tonight in my opinion with a very short number. The Hawks have owned the Pacers in the past few years winning all 6 games and covering 5 of them ATS. Atlanta wants to get back on track and Indiana has lost to lesser opponents in here this year already, look for Atlanta to win a tight one here and pull away late with a fresher and healthier team.

Play 1 Unit on the Hawks. Thanks and best of luck. TG

Minnesota +9

A team with 3 wins in a game where they are more or less even with their opponent laying 9? While Minny is not a good team, they are playing very well in the backcourt and have competed and even won on the road, most recently against the Kings where they are getting 10 points and won by 9 straight up and I was all over them. Both teams playing a little better defense, I just do not see Charlotte laying this type of number and Minny can easily cover this number if they play to their season averages, which I think they will. Grab the big points in this one, as I feel it is going to be a tight game throughout and oddsmakers over estimate the Bobcats at home here with such a huge number.

Play 1 Unit on Minnesota

Lakers -3 to -3.5

The Lakers are undefeated and Kobe just loves the spotlight on Thursday TNT. The frontcourt and low post and more discipline on defense and rebounding for the Lakers will win it here. Denver sitting at 4-4 on the year and playing so so ball, including allowing the Pacers 144 points in a loss their last game. LA licking their chops on this one knowing they have dropped 3 out of the last 4 against Denver and also the Lakers are just 1-8 ATS on TNT Thursday as a team, and odds are way against the trend to continue, usually the Lakers are laying huge numbers on TNT is the main reason why the ATS record stinks, but LA beats the hell out of team who play no defense, tonight will be no exception.

Play 1 Unit on the LA Lakers

T Wolves +9.5

Too many points for the Kings to be laying here. They are outmanned on the frontcourt here by Minny, I think it is closer than the line and Minny could be a live dog. This is a late release so the writeup is short today gents, go get it!

Play 1 Unit on Minnesota

Over 193 Utah and Miami

Like the over in this game for numerous reasons. Utah spreads it around and gets lots of scoring p[production, especially in their backcourt. Miami does play some defense however Utah is aggressive up the floor and that seems to let things open up against the Heat. The trio of stars that Miami has all scored in the 20s last game and are starting to gel as an offensive unit which is bad news for teams in the East as they get stronger. In their last 5 games both teams on offense are averaging in excess of 104 ppg, and Utah is 6-2 their last 8 road games on the Over.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER. Bonus half unit Play, Toledo +10.5 tonight in the NCAA game, should be a good one.

Boston +3.5

Would you grab the points with the better team? I did it with Boston in their last road game against OK City ansd we won by 11.5 points over the spread. It may not be that big tonight but Dallas is living on reputation here more than results. Boston WINS big games, and while the experience factor is not as large a gap as playiong OK City, the backcourt of Boston will win this, and their edge in big men down low to catch rebounds and easy points, where Dallas is again lazy in the post area. Bostons offense scoring 104 ppg their last 5 games, and shotting 49 percent from the floor.

Play 1 Unit on Boston

Celtics +1.5

Wrong team favored as the guard play and backcourt of the Celtics will win it. Also like Shaq in the paint here for some easy boards and OK City, while a good team, is not playing much defense and against Boston that is doom. Also like the experience factor against youth in this one, Boston tends to win big games, they get this one by 4-6 points.

Play 1 Unit on Boston

OVER 187 Miami and New Orleans

Seen the last 2 games by BOTH these two teams. New Orleans is playing good offense and OK defense. Miami is hit and miss on defense and should light up the scoreboard here after they put up `129 in their last game and the Hornets put up 107 in theirs. No brainer here as far as this line, should be mid 190s, I will take the Over.

1 Unit Play on the Over

OVER 193.5 Portland and OK City

The Thunder are playing no defense on the road or for the season, and while the Blazers defense is solid, OK City is the 8th ranked offense in the NBA overall right now, and Portland is scoring 98 ppg right now. Portland on a road run here, and not even thinking about playing defense, they allowed 107 against the Clippers last night and 120 to Utah in the game before that and that one was at home. I expect this to be a game where OK City will push the floor with their backcourt and fire away against the Blazers who have owned them as of late. Portland should exceed their average at home, which is 98 points against a porous defense unless they come out ice cold, but at home I expect them to equal their average and then some.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER

LA Lakers -5

This line liable to jump. Both teams played last night, LA with a huge win by 21, while the Kings struggled till the final buzzer for a 3 point win over Toronto. Kobe shows no effects from a sore knee, and LA has HUGE advantages down low and in the post here and should own the boards. Better team, more easy points, more rebounds, best player on the floor, and best coach. Laying 5 in this one on the road does not scare me, I have a power rating of 9 points here, even with the road factor figured in. The road team in this series is 13-3 ATS.

Play 1 Unit on the LA Lakers

OK City -6

Get on the Thunder here. Yes Durrant a stud, and Chicago has Rose, but the Bulls have a ton of new faces and many of them did not play in the pre season so I like a team with little turnover and some real character in the Thunder in their home opener. Chicago admitted in the press that they have to work on chemistry, Boozer is out till December and the Bulls with trying to get everyone on the floor for the regular season, will have to work out some kinks and gel, and OK City is NOT a team who will allow them to score a ton anyway. Lay the number here.

Play 1 Unit on OK City. Thanks and best of Luck.

LA -7

With Perkins out and Boston on the road, I have no other way to look in this one. The games Boston won, they dominated the paint and the boards. They lost a KEY element and player in Perkins, and it is a BIG loss for them. Gasol for th Lakers played great defense in the last game, Wallace was 0-7 from the floor and he made critical boards and points when needed. Can Boston overcome a 20 point loss in 48 hours and take this game? LA is the BEST TEAM in the NBA, and have been all season. When they bring their A game, they can beat anyone by double digits at home, I do not see them losing this game at home and the probility of trhem covering a rather large number is higher than therm not, I will take the home team to pull away late on their homecourt win a title by 10 tonight.

Play 1 Unit on LA. Win, Lose or draw, it has been a great season, and awesome post season, and I thank you fro all your business this year. Best of Luck and Go Lakers. Tony G

LA -6.5

Something has to give. Look to Game 1 of the NBA finals, LA pushed the ball, attacked the boards and shot well at home with Gasol and Bryant taking charge. Expect Game 6 in LA to have the homecourt behind a riotous crowd in full swing as LA faces elimination and they will play their best game of the past 4 games at home. I expect Kobe to take over and for the rim to be contested better, and for LAs backcourt to push the ball hard all night, which will take the Boston bench out of it in terms of momentum. Look at it for what it is, the best team in the NBA, at home, their back against the wall, and pissed off about their fall from grace the past 2 games, it adds up to an ass whipping by LA in this one setting up an epic Game 7.

Play 2 Units on LA, thanks and good

Boston -2.5

I toiled over this play for 3 hours this morning and looked hard at it on Saturday numerous times. These teams are EBVEN across the board with one glaring thing sticking out, Kobe Bryant. he is the difference maker, but he cannot carry the team against a deep and talented Boston who has succomb to letting him have his points. With Bynum out for most minutes of every game, the paint is owned by Boston and the rebounding and easy put backs is abosultley key for them. This is a MUST WIN for the Celtics because LA will win it all at home without question. I expect Ray Allen to get out of his slump and the depth of Boston to play a key role. Home team gets the nod in what should be another wild one. Lots of free throws they say with tight reffing in this one as well. A look at the OVER 187 for a half unit might be in order, LA will want to push it this time around and lots of points with the clock stopped.

Play 1 Unit on Boston, and worth a look at the Over for a half unit max.

Boston -3 to 3.5

This is the NBA. The NBA is about making money and a short series is what no one wants, from David Stern to the refs. Rest assured Boston played deplorable in Game 3, got ribbed numerous times by bad calls on the refs, and were outcoached big time. I doubt Ray Allen stinks it up and I think the defense will stiffen up and the Celtics take one at home here without question tonight. The Garden will be electric, everyone will have their A game and the under still may be in play in this one and worth a look as well. Look for Boston to even the series here with a 5-7 point win. It will be a tight one, so hang on.

Play 1 Unit on Boston

Under 193 Boston / LA

Doubt the Lakers let Ray Allen be wide open all night and doubt Boston shoots lights out. I also think the refs will open it up a bit and call it so tight, which means less time the clock is stopped while teams are making points without it running. Boston is a defensive team at home big time and while LA will find this game physical, but to their liking. Garnett is not healthy and Ray Allen set the pace while LA pissed down their leg in Game 2 with a lead with under 6 minutes left. LA the better team getting points in what should be a tight game.

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER and a half unit on LA +3 here. Best of Luck. Tony G

Boston +6

Gonna take the Celtics here in Game 2 to play better. Lots of bulletin board material here and saying Garnett is washed up is not true. Boston did not play stingy defense and they will in this one. I think LA has a lot tougher time in this one getting a win, Boston was just flat in game 1 here and the backcourt could not put them in from the outside. All Boston starters had double digits in points in game one, look for them to step it up here.

Play 1 Unit on Boston. BONUS MLB Play - LA Dodgers -119 for a half unit. Lister pitchers only.

Boston +5.5

These have been close games in the last 2 these teams played this season, a 1-1 split and each one a 1 point game. I cannot ignore a team who plays defense like Boston. All things equal on the court other than Kobe is the best player in the NBA, I have to admit it is scary to go against LA at home in the Finals, but when you look at the playoffs, OK City played aggressive defense against LA and gave them fits, and when the Suns forced a matchup zone and manned up with their big men, they gave LA trouble as well. Boston can and will play solid defense, and are 18 ppg on defense better than LA. All things equal, a far better defensive team getting points like this in the NBA is a take, and Boston has serious talent up top, even with a banged up Rondo.

Play 1 Unit on Boston

Suns -1.5

Cannot go against a home team which is capable of winning, laying less than a bucket in a building where they have swept LA so far. After losing a heartbreaker on Thursday to LA, the Suns who are 38-18-1 their last 57 at home, shoot the 3 ball better in their own house and look for Steve Nash and company to give LA another defeat in here tonight and make LA try to win the championship at home. Suns bench oplays well at home and their big men will step up in this one.

Play 1 Unit on the Suns

Boston +4

This is a tough call and goes against the public. Boston GAVE AWAY the game in Game 4 at home, and quite frnakly they just too many weapons not to win this series. Yes it is a tough team at home, but Boston m,atches up well against them. With Carter and Lewis being non factors for Orlando, with Carter having as many fouls and turnovers as points in game 4, I just do not see the Celtics losing this game if they show up. Getting 4 points with the better team, even on the road, where the underdog is 8-1 ATS the last 9, and in a low scoring game, I will take the 4 points in what should be a barnburner tonight, and a down to the wire type game....I can see an 88-86 type game here with either team winning...the under might be worth a look as well.

Play 1 Unit on Boston. BONUS MLB PLAY- Baltimore -116 for a half unit. I like their offense in this one against the As.

Suns

Got to like the Suns chances at home here, the home team is 8-1 ATS the last 9 in this series and the Suns are money at home. I said all along the Suns were getting beat in the paint and Stoudemier and Lopez stepped up for 62 points the last game. Look for more of the same and little defense by either team here. When you have an offense that plays well at home, that counts for allot in the Suns case and I also expect their backcourt to shoot it well tonight. They are a different animal at home and this is a KEY game in this series for the Suns, they lose, and are most likely done done traveling back to LA and they know it and will play like it.

Play 1 Unit on the Suns

LA +2

Cannot pass up the better team getting points, it goes against every fundamental rule in capping. The playoffs are a diffefrent animal and LA is bringing their A game here eb=very day and now have a 6-1 SU edge their last 7 against the Suns. LA is winning the battle in the paint with Odom and Gasol, and Bynum is putting in quality minutes, and the Suns are playing NO defense. While they may play some today, Kobe will command a double team in order to hold his points down and the big men are stepping up on pick and rolls off the triangle offense and killing the Suns. Boston was the better team and won yesterday, I feel LA does the same thing here.

Play 1 Unit on LA

Orlando +4

Well the better team so far is at home but the line value at +4 is so glaring to me, I think Orlando makes their best effort of the series in this one. I am unclear of why Orlando cannot get it done outside while Howard commands double teams, but I am putting faith in fundamentals and Rashard Lewis this game to step up and keep Orlando in it. Orlando is 6-0 ATS on the road their last 6, and 6-0 ATS against a home team with a winning record and they won 2 in here already. Boston alittle cocky headed into this one, I like their chances of getting a game here and Orlando putting it all on the line. Look for 4 points here..it is at about half the books I looked at today. A stretch against a team who has stunk it up, but I just have a feeling on this one guys, I have seen it before.

Play 1 Unit on orlando.

LA Lakers -7

Not afraid to lay it, as the Lakers dominated the Suns in game 1, and not just Kobe going off for 40 points, Lamar Odom and all the players in the paint dominated the Lakers down low, and I do not see that changing. The backcourt for LA is superior and if Odom keeps up with double / doubles LA will be very tough to beat in this series, even at home for Suns. LA is the best team in the NBA at defending the 3 pointer, and the Suns are the best at shooting 3s in the NBA, but defense wins championships and Las defense on the perimeter is stellar. LA on a 4-0 ATS and SU run, I see nothing to change that in LA, where bulletin board material from the Suns have surfaced including calling LA lucky to win game 1. I Like the Lakers motivation here. Better teams win and covers at home. LA 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS the last 10 meetings.

Play 1 Unit on LA. Bonus MLB Play, Play a half unit on Detroit Tigers -120 tonight in Bases, listed pitchers only.

UNDER 210.5 LA / Pheonix

Lots of reasons for the under here. LA off a long layoff and Kobe not practicing. Look for Grant Hill to play some tough defense on Kobe and contain him somewhat. The Suns have went 7-1-1 ATS their last 9 road games, and are 6-1-1 as an underdog. While the Suns were lights out in scoring against Utah, that is why they are here, the Jazz played no defense, that is not the case with LA, and 2 out of the last 3 in this series have went under. I like a lower scoring game here with both teams tight, much like Sundays game. The rim will contested on bioth ends and easy short shots will not come easy.

Play 1 Unit on the Under..thanks and good lcck. Tony G

Orlando -6.5

How did Orlando do their last big layoff after a series win in the playoffs? Well, a 43 point win against Atlanta. I do not see that happening here but less than 3 days rest of Boston, who shocked me and everyone else by beating the Cavs, may not be enought as their age will have fatuige factors the deeper they go. They will get matched up on defense better in the backcourt and the paint in this one as well. Orlando a hot team and they beat the Celts this season 3 out of 4 games. Orlando is 13-1 ATS their last 14 games..hard to buck that trend here with rest galore.

Play 1 Unit on Orlando

Orlando -6.5

Does 7 straight wins, 3-0 ATS and SU in this series, with just total domination in every aspect of every game played warrant a line like this as oddsmakers are praying Atlanta shows up and does not throw in the towel? Well, Orlando is flat out better even if Atlanta shows up, and the great thing about this line, which I have a power rating of 10 points difference for the Magic, even on the road, is that I have seen in 18 years of capping, a team down 0-3, who puts up a fight and then hits a wall in the second half with a surge by the other team, tends to throw it in and lose bug down the stretch. 51-34 in the paint in rebounds, Joe Johnson and the entire backcourt for Atlanta just getting owned, Orlando had 10 players score the last game, they are on a mission and look as good as any team I have seen so far.

Play 2.5 Units

Orlando -2

Cheap line for a team who has simply dominated Atlanta in the paint and ion the backcourt and have had 2 double digit wins, one by 40 points so far. Orlando has scored 101 ppg their last 5 as compared to Atlantas 84, and have more firepower than the Hawks. Milwaukee came in here and won a game, I see no reason why Orlando does not rock them here by 6-8 points. Orlando 21-7 ATS their last 28 games.

Play 1 Unit on Orlando

Boston +1

Some say Cleveland pulls their self together here but Boston is playing better TEAM ball and Rondo is on fire and unstoppable on the point, scoring 20 ppg and has been assisting like crazy. Shaq is not a threat in the paint, James is not 100% and getting doubled all over the place, and Boston has split 5-5 the last 10 games in this series. Yes the Celtics are not a good cover team at home, but they are an underdog here in the playoffs in a MUST WIN game for the,. LeBron cannot do it alone, Bostons big 3 too much at home in this game.

Play 1 Unit on Boston

Magic -9

How do you recover in 2 days from a 43 point beatdown? You dont. Orlandos backcourt outscored Atlantas 39-12 and they absolutley dominated the paint in scoring and rebounding. Atlanta was tired headed into game 1 and Orlando well rested, and I still think that is the case. The Hawks had issues everywhere with Milwaukee, and they simply have a different animal in Orlando, but better. Shooting 15% from 3 point range and playing an aggressive defense gave them issues, and Orlando contests the rim with Howard and Lewis far better. Just too much for the Hawks to overcome, and laying 9 here, same as game 1, with no adjustemnt as oddsmakers will not allow double digits in round 2 of the NBA playoffs often, leaves Orlando the clear choice.

Play 1 Unit on Orlando