New Orleans -6.5

The Pelicans need games like this to keep pace in the west and the 76ers are without their leading scorer and are averaging 86 ppg on offense and allowing 96 in their last 5 games.  No brainer blowout here.  2nd leading scorer for Philly is doubtful too….wow. 

Short and Sweet – Lay it for 1 to 2 Units on New Orleans 

Golden State -7.5

The Warriors are red hot and rested.  Off a 6-0 run in their last 6 at home winning by an average of 22 ppg, I will take them tonight against the Jazz who lack consistency from the outside and the backcourt to match points with Curry and company. The Jazz do not match up well here.  Bear in mind the Warriors offensive power should not cloud the fact they are one of the better perimeter defenses around.  Big step up in class for the Jazz who have won 7 out of their last 12. 

Play 1 Unit on Golden State 

Brooklyn -2.5
Short and Sweet.  Miami in a funk, they are off a 36 point ass kicking at Houston and the Nets are red hot and have won 6 out of 7 and their offense is clicking/  That is good news because the Heat have allowed 103 ppg their last 5 games.  Hot team, little number, I am taking them.
Play 1 Unit on Brooklyn 

Bulls -5
Short sand Sweet here.  The Bulls are on fore scoring over 100 ppg in 5 out of their last 6, all wins and they have ripped off 9 out of 10 SU and Derrick Rose is finally living up to expectations, which is bad news for the Pacers who beat the Bulls last month and the Bulls will exact revenge tonight.
Play 1 Unit on Chicago 

Brooklyn Nets +11

While Toronto is a great team and tough at home and I do not expect the Nets to win this game, but 11 points is a ton against a team in Brooklyn that plays defense well.  The Nets have allowed just 93 ppg their last 5 games and the Raptors have scored on the average in their last 5 games just over 100 ppg.  The Raptors are 11-1 SU against teams with a losing record but in their last 10 games this is the highest spread they have had, and they are just 5-5 ATS their last 10 games.

Play 1 Unit on Brooklyn  

Memphis -2.5

Oddsmakers begging you take a team on a16 win streak here, as the Warriors are hot as hell and a damn good team.  This is their 3rd game in 4 days on the road, and they have OK City on deck Thursday Night on a national TNT Game.  There is a huge mis-match down low here where Memphis should dominate the paint, and with Memphis on a 4 game win streak of their own, but Bogut is out for GS and that is huge and GS off an OT win as well and on the road the next game up in that scenario is always a good fade spot against a good team. Memphis’s last 2 games have went to OT but at home with 2 days rest.   Memphis had a scare at Philly but pulled it and they will be fired up for this one against the NBA’s best team.  Memphis is sneaky good, getting great point guard play, and tough as nails at home. Memphis 5-2 ATS the last 7 in this series and playing with double revenge.

Play 1 Unit on Memphis. 

Houston -1

No Dwight Howard still for Houston, but I like the Rockets here against the Kings, who cannot close out a game it seems.  With Cousins out for the Kings, they miss his point production and both teams off a loss here, but the King’s off a bad loss at the Lakers while a red hot Golden State team who plays good defense beat up the Rockets.  Houston has more offensive firepower, they are better on the offensive glass, and Kings home floor is not the advantage it has been in years past either.  The Kings relay on their bench and the Houston starters average over 20 ppg more than the Kings starters.  Cheap number, looks like a set up, but CLEARLY the better team here is Houston and laying less than 3 here is a gift.

Play 1 Unit on Houston 

LA Clippers -6.5 to 7

Really, Indiana is going to compete here?  Their last game at home was a blowout loss to Atlanta by 16 points and trust me when I tell you the Clippers will OWN the paint in this one, have more offensive firepower, better rebounding and better star power on the floor. 118 ppg their last 3 games for the Clips on offense, and Indiana just 94 in their last 3 games.  The Clippers are ALSO playing with triple revenge, they have lost 3 straight to the Pacers.  Perfect storm for a blowout winner.

Play 2 Units on the LA Clippers. 

Phoenix -4.5

Miami is reeling, the chemistry is not there on offense and they have suffered 4 straight defeats by double digits and now travel to the desert to take on a good Suns team off an OT loss to the Clippers.  The Heats 89 ppg on offense the last 5 versus the Suns last 5 where they have scored 107 ppg?  The Heat are in a tailspin, and Bosh if coming off a horrible game and Wade cannot carry them here.   Usually I like to fade a team off an OT loss but Miami is allowing 55% from the floor on defense the last 4 games and over 50% from the 3 point arc.  Wow. 

Play 1 Unit on the Suns.  

UNDER 198.5 Nets / Cavs

Short and Sweet here.  Brooklyn’s offense stinks, they managed 75 points in their last game and LeBron James and company have not been lighting it up.  The Nets are 10-1 ATS on the Under in their last 11 games, and the Cavs are 5-1-1 ATS on the UNDER in their last 7 road games and the Nets have not broken a 100 points on offense since Nov. 15th.  Unreal.

Play 1 Unit on the Under 

Atlanta +4

Like the Hawks at home with this number gents, especially off a win last night against the Wizards.  Most impressive has been the depth of the Hawks, 30 points off the bench in a big win Tuesday.  The Raptors on a 5 game win streak, but I like to fade travel teams near or on Holidays if the line is ripe, and this is a live home dog here, I will grab the points.

Play 1 Unit on Atlanta 

Dallas -3.5

The Mavs are hot and the key in this game is simple, the Hornets cannot keep pace on offense against the Mavs who averaged winning their last 4 games by 25 ppg and average 109 ppg on the season on offense and Charlotte just 96 points, and off a long trip, Dallas is the last team you want to open up a home stand against.  Mavs deep on the bench and red hot.  Dallas 7-2 SU and ATS. 

Play 1 Unit on Dallas.   

UNDER 203.5 Cavs / Pelicans

Too many points here , neither team averages over 100 ppg on offense, and Monday games tend to be sluggish anyway and New Orleans is a lot better than you think and held the Spurs to under 100 on their home floor and won the game outright.  Yes the Cavs put together a good game against Denver but the Pelicans provide a stiffer test.  Pelicans play some defense and rebound well taking away easy points and we all know Cleveland is an outside team all the way and do not get a lot of put backs rebounding inside.

Play 1 Unit on the Under  

Houston -4

San Antonio not in sync, age is showing and Harden and Howard and company are a machine early on here.  San Antonio still a good team but Green has played horrid and his shooting is bad, the Spurs second half efforts have fallen short and they had to play a full 4 quarters last night to beat Atlanta last night and the Spurs scoring cannot trade punches right now with Houston who is 4-1 ATS and 5-0 SU this season and the Spurs have yet to cover a spread.

Play 1 Unit on Houston

Pacers +9.5

Wait on this line, it may go up.  The hype is Indiana beat the Wiz in the playoffs last year , but other than 2 losses in 4 games they split recently, the Pacers have won 9 straight.  The points here are simply Vegas oddsmakers seeing Washington is scoring 101 ppg and Indiana just 91, and they are off a piss poor effort in their last game and were horrific from the floor in that game.  It improves tonight and they hang within this number.  I like taking big points early in the season.

Play 1 Unit on Indiana and the points

BONUS PLAY – OVER 202 in the Nuggets and Kings Game. 

LA Clippers -8.5

Who better to get healthy on than the Jazz, who stink on the road and the Clips OWN this team.  Off an embarrassing loss to the Kings look for LA to focus in tonight and pull out all the stops.  They have not looked all that good to open the season, I think it changes tonight.  The Clips are 9-0 the last 9 SU versus Utah and have beat them 5 straight at home in blow away fashion.  Look for the Clippers to flex their muscle tonight and put together a good game.

Play 1 Unit on the Clippers

San Antonio -5.5

Interesting that Miami’s last 5 games headed into the Finals they averaged 89 ppg allowed on defense.  Now they average 10-3 ppg allowed their last 5 games while scoring only 95.  WOW.  That is why you are down 3-1 and going to lose in San Antonio.  Since the Dallas Series they have destroyed everyone at home , usually by double digits and they look forward to putting away the Heat the heat on the strongest home floor in the NBA.  The Spurs are the best team here and just put on a clinic in game 4, that was evidence alone the last 2 games and Miami has no answer for the total TEAM effort San Antonio throws at you.  Hate to be laying points in any championship series, and this is a big number in the NBA anytime, but if the Heat get down big again they will toss it in.  Parker is shredding them inside, the bench of the Spurs has talent with little drop off from the first unit, they are fresher than Miami,  and it is apparent James and Wade cannot carry this team and role players simply are not stepping up with Chalmers, Allen and Bosh no shows for the most part.  Miami looks beat and tired, they simply have no answer for the Spurs.  I see World Champs being crowned written all over this one.

Play 1 Unit on San Antonio. 

If in fact they win – I want to thank you all for your support this NBA Season which was over 62% ATS on the SEASON, Top Plays at 70% ATS+ and the Playoffs which were awesomely good!  Thank you very much for your confidence in Tony George Sports 

Under 197
2 of 3 games have went over.  If Miami expects to win they HAVE to hold the Spurs to under 100 points, if not they will lose every game moving forward.  In most scenario's this would be a balls to the wall shootout to win one at home, Miami cannot do that.  They averaged 89 ppg allowed their last 5 games coming into the Finals, and they NEED to get back to that mentality.  Slow it down, play good defense and get a win.  I think we see fundamental basketball from Miami today.
Play 1 Unit on the Under
2 Team 4 Point Teaser.  Tease Miami down to -1.5 and tease the total up to 201.5 and take the Under. 

San Antonio +4.5

Bottom line is a line swing of 9 points is not warranted here.  These teams are dead even.  In a championship scenario I would rather be taking points versus laying them.  The Bench, road record, and scoring ability of San Antonio here (Scoring well above what Miami’s defense is averaging), is too good to pass up grabbing 4.5 points.

Play 1 Unit on San Antonio 

Under 199
Short and Sweet.  Fatigue will play a part, San Antonio will not shoot 58% from the floor again, almost impossible to do that and given Miami's defense is solid and played poorly I do not see a repeat.  25 three pointers made in game 1, sloppy play down the stretch for Miami, I see a much tighter game here and lower scoring.  Even with all the shooting %'s at a high level in Game 1, the total never went over till the final minute in game 1.  
Play 1 Unit on the Under  

Spurs -4

You cannot ignore the destruction after the Dallas series that San Antonio laid on every opponent in their home arena.  The Spurs are 7-0 ATS their last 7 home appearances and they are 7-0 ATS at home their last 7 with teams that have a winning road record.  Miami is up and down and struggled in a few series and in some games they should not have.  The KEY is the bench at home for the Spurs, and also in this series.  It is a GREAT bench, and at home and Parker playing it is a no brainer.  Have no doubts, this will be a topsy turvey Finals with both teams winning games and someone has to steal one somewhere, and I am not a fan of laying points, but taking them with 2 good teams but I am laying it in this opener with the better team. 

Play 1 Unit on San Antonio 

Pacers at Heat -8 Total 182.5

LeBron James only scored seven points in Game 5.  Paul George countered with 37 for the Pacers.  With James not playing much because of foul trouble the Heat still had a chance to win the game and the total stayed under by .5 point.  I’m not getting in the way of the Heat, but I don’t want to lay that much chalk either.  I like the total to go over.  James, 7 points and only .5 point under the total in Game 5.

Play one unit on the Over 182.5

OK City at San Antonio -5  Total 206.5

Three of the first four games in this series have gone under the posted total.  The Spurs got 66 points in the paint in game one, the only game to go over the total.  In games 3 and 4 with Ibaka back in the Thunder lineup the Spurs have avg. just under 40.  Ibaka isn’t the whole difference but it sure takes away some of the easy points.  This is a big game and I look for both defenses to ramp it up here.  I will take the under in this game tonight.

Play one unit on the Under 206.5

Miami -1.5 to -2

I would not step in front of the  Heat tonight.  If they get out early, they can smell the blood in the water here and a must win to rest up for the Western Champs would be a HUGE advantage for the Heat, who are the better team, more consistent, and quite frankly with Hibbert a no show again and some in fighting amongst the Pacers, I like the Heat to close this out tonight.

Play 1 Unit on Miami  

OVER 204.5 to 207 Spurs / Thunder

No brainer here, HUGE Game for the both of these teams, and I doubt Parker is a no show tonight and you can expect the veteran Spurs to pull out all the stops tonight, as well as OK City and that means plenty of offense.  Oddsmakers dropped this total down a full point, point and a half from Game 3, I am all over this one.  I would not step in front of either of these teams tonight as scoring will be emphasized from both coaching staffs.

Play 2 Units on the Over

Indiana +6.5

Simple theory here, perhaps a zig zag from last game.  The Pacers could not have played worse and the Heat could not have played better in the last game.  I look for Indiana to play vastly better and some regression from Miami here.  Too many points as the Pacers look to avenge a bad performance and I expect a lower scoring game which also favors the points.

Play 1 Unit on Indiana  

San Antonio +2

Are you kidding me?  My power ratings have this at Spurs -4.5, that is a 6.5 overlay!  That is RARE in the NBA.  Call it a square bet, perhaps I have egg on my face but I am 100% confident the difference between these 2 teams is so far apart right now it is not recoverable for the Thunder, even at home to close the gap.  112-77 and you are getting 2 when I I posted this play?  Give the best team in the NBA and points??  Hell yeah!   Come on – OK City has 2 options to score, no Ibaka is KILLING them, and San Antonio is the best team left standing, the best team on the road in the NBA with the best coach in the NBA and the strongest bench in the NBA and the Spurs 3 stars are performing at the peak of their game.  Did I mention OK City has 2 scorers and Durant looks lost and is in a funk?  A home court advantage is not enough, the Spurs may close this out in 4 games, maybe 5 but they would need an epic fail in order to not sweep this series and rest up for Miami or Indiana, and that is exactly their agenda, and with the experience they have on hand, they know the drill well and what awaits them on the road after an ass kicking they handed out in game 2, they will be ready.

Play 3 Units on San Antonio

OVER 211 – Spurs / Thunder

Zig Zag theory in effect?  Opposite of Game 1.  I doubt it although OK City MIGHT cover the 6..I am staying away from that.  Look at the Heat last night, that entire game was opposite from game 1.  While I cannot lean to the +6 here because of the scoring drought other than 2 players for OK City right now, and with Ibaka out, I like the easy points in the paint that San Antonio enjoys, 66 points in the paint in game 1.  Defense apparently is not allowed in the West and the Spurs consistently score 100+ at home and the Thunder play bad defense late.  This line is up 3 points from game 1 (208.5) where these 2 scored 227 points and I expect no less in the shootout oriented Western Conference again tonight. 

Play 1 Unit on the Over

Miami -2.5

Yeah a public bet.  But also bear in mind Miami is 10-0 SU off a playoff loss their last 10 defeats.  The Pacers played a perfect game with help from the refs and shooting at near 60% will not happen twice against a Heat team hell bent on revenge with better players and a vastly better coach and the best player in the NBA who will look to dominate this game….

Play 2 Units on Miami 

OK City +5.5

Yeah the Spurs are unreal at home, best record in the NBA and have a deep bench.  But OK City has won the last 5 meetings dating back to last April by an average of over 10 ppg, and dating back to June of 2012 are 8-2 SU against the Spurs.   Parker is limited tonight and with San Antonio playing no defense recently and the total at 209 in this game, I expect both teams to score plenty.  With NBA underdogs in the post season at 67% and the Pacers covering last night outright, I will take the points here.  Too easy to lay it with the Spurs, against a team they have struggled with.  3 pointer one way or the other, OK City 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings between these 2.  Wow!

Play 1 Unit on OK City

Over 181.5  Heat / Pacers

I listened to 2 different interviews with Miami's head coach this week and his key is pushing the ball, and he clearly stated Miami wants this game in the 90's and higher on offense as that is the key to winning.  Looks like an easy take on Miami laying the short number but this is a trap line and I expect both teams here to score in the 90's and for Miami to make it a priority to do so as that is the key to beating the Pacers, and I expect Indiana to play well here at home.

Play 1 Unit on the Over  

OVER 180 Pacers / Wizards

These 2 teams got to 181 points without the Pacers breaking 80 points in their last game and the Wizards who face elimination will do what they do best, and that is score as many points as a lazy and lethargic defense of the Pacers will allow them.  I also do not expect the Pacers to manage only 79 points.  I  Have cashed numerous totals plays on the over against the Pacers even through the Hawks series and this one has over written all over it as both teams will pull out all the stops in this one. 

Play 2 Units on the OVER 

OVER 188.5 Heat / Nets

Both games went over with ease in Miami at the first of this series, the last game also went way over.  The offenses combine for a 5 game average of 194 ppg and the Nets defense is giving up 100 ppg in their last 5.  Both teams will pull out all the stops tonight.  Nets to avoid elimination and Miami to put it away, and James totally in sync and taking over.  I expect more from Miami’s bench tonight too.

Play 1 Unit on the Over

Bonus 2 Team 4 Point Teaser-  Play 1 Unit.  Tease Miami to down to -3 and Tease the Spurs down to -4  - I do not see either team losing.

LA Clippers +5.5

Underdogs headed into tonight the last 4 days are 7-1 ATS and home favs are getting crushed.  There is little difference between these 2 teams and it is KNOWN that Durant and Westbrook cannot beat the 5 deep Clippers on the scoreboard.  There is no 3rd scorer for OK City that is consistent, and LA will score 100+ in this game and if George covers Durant again like the last game, it is disruptive for KD in terms of points produced and while George is smaller Durant does not play well with his back to the basket and I think the Clippers are well past tabloid issues and playing great ball, and overall have the deep scoring needed to contend with the Thunder here, I will grab the points.

Play 1 Unit on the LA Clippers

OVER 188 Miami / Brooklyn

Have no doubt Miami will be dialed in tonight off a loss, a bad one in game 3.  Also have no doubt that the Nets will bring all they have to try and tie the series.  I expect LeBron to go off tonight and when he does he gets double teamed and that opens up options for a ton of other scorers on the roster.  Miami’s defense has been lackluster and the Nets should easily get 95 tonight, and I expect Miami to reach triple digits.  Miami is 5-1 ATS the next game off a SU loss.  Small lean to the Heat -2.5 as well for a half unit.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER 188

Play the OVER in the Spurs / Blazers game at 210.5  for 1 Unit – I think the Spurs close this out, the Blazers have no answer for them on defense at all and I expect the Blazers to pull out all the stops.

Play a half unit on the Heat -2 to 2.5

Indiana +4.5

Pacers dialed in.  Looks like a spot play to take Washington BUT the Pacers defense has shown up, Hibbert has shown up and they have a small chip on their should they needed.  They forced 18 turnovers last game and held the high flying Wiz to 65 points.  I like them to cover in a wire to wire type game....low scoring game, sniff the Under here, I will take the points. ONE UNIT MAX.....these lines are tight today....this is a contrarian play versus the public and no doubt many Pros....but Indiana is dialed in and playing their best ball of the playoffs and Washington in a funk especially offensively.

Play 1 Unit on Indiana 

San Antonio -1.5
 
Huge advantage on the line here, Portland is no match for the Spurs who have blown them off floor with ease.  Nothing will change Saturday because they are at the Rose garden.  The Spurs are the best road team in the NBA, have the best record, have the veteran talent and depth on the bench and the experience all on their side.  2 Double digit wins and now they lay 5 points less than their last spread?  Blazers giving up 111 ppg on defense and scoring 101 in their last 5 games overall.  Home court won't help them here, nothing changes, they are totally outmatched at days end, Spurs too deep with talent against a young team.  Total mis-match.
 
Play 3 Units on San Antonio

UNDER 214 Clips / Thunder
 
At home LA allows 100 and on the road the Thunder also allow 100 for the season.  While I expect the usual Western style game here this number is loved by the public with 70% of the action so far on the over, but I see a tight game here and a lower scoring affair in game 2 which we have seen in a few of the games in round 1 and round 2.  As the series expands, teams get more strategic in their approach and I see this sliding under the number.  All signs point towards the over but I am going contrarian today.
 
Play 1 Unit on the Under  

Spurs -6.5

Expect the dominance to continue tonight.  Portland was lucky to get by Houston, barely won the games they won in that series with the largest margin of winning at 7 points, failed to cover all but 2 in the series and they looked lost and completely outclassed against the veteran Spurs.  The bench of the Spurs and the depth of talent and experience both on the floor and in coaching is too much for the Blazers.  No line adjustment off a 24 point loss, the Blazers defense giving up 112 ppg their last 6 games, and against the Spurs at home that is not a good thing as San Antonio is in full sync on offense, there is a 14 point defensive differential between these 2 teams their last 5 games overall. 

Play 2 Units on San Antonio

Over 185  Pacers / Wizards

Cashed the over in game 1 and oddsmakers made a 1.5 point adjustment.  Say what?  We are betting numbers, not games, that adjustment is not enough.  Chicago could not shut down Washington with their vaunted defense and the Pacers defense (#2 in NBA) yielded over 100 points in game 1 of this series and all starters for the Wiz were in double digits in scoring plus a bench player!!  I expect Indiana to score better this game and the Pacers are getting dominated inside (Hibbert has vanished) and that equates to easy points.  Washington can and will continue to put up points against a confused and under coached Pacers team.

Play 2 Units on the OVER 

San Antonio -6.5

What did Portland do against Houston?  Nothing really and won on a miracle and they also allowed 110 ppg on defense in that series.  That will not fly as they meet their ,match tonight against a talented Spurs team with a deep bench and 3 stars on the floor.  I expect San Antonio to play good defense, especially in the backcourt and win by double digits tonight.  Portland is the public’s flavor tonight, I am not buying it. 

Play 1 unit on San Antonio

Over 183.5 Washington / Indiana

If Washington can rack up points all over the vaunted Bulls defense in the first round, have no doubts they can and will against Indiana, who had issues slowing down the Hawks offense which is not all that great.  The Wiz well rested and Indiana off a draining 7 games series against Atlanta, I expect them to have some fatigue issues in this game and that will show up on defense.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER 

Dallas at San Antonio -6.5 Total 197.5

Top Play! Another game 7, this is the way it should be.  I’m traveling, so not much time for a write up.  I know both of these teams can and will score in this game.  I like this so much we have a Top Play here.  I like the Over 198.5.

Top Play two units on the Over 197.5

Nets at Raptors -3

The Nets have picked up momentum after coming back to almost win game 5, then winning game 6, they head to ‘Toronto for game 7.  I’ll take the experience of the Nets in this game and catch some points.

Play one unit on Brooklyn +3

Atlanta at Indiana -6.5

The Hawks have won twice in Indy already in the series.  I’m not sure they get it done against the best home team in the league but this is too many points for a team that certainly can get the win.  Hibbert only got 12 mins. With a new rotation to combat the Hawks.  It worked, so we will probably see the the same thing.  Hibbert wasn’t contributing much anyway.  We have a live dog and we are going to ride it.

Play one unit on Atlanta +6.5

Bonus Play – Grizzlies without Randolph and a hobbled PG Conley at best.  May not even have him.  This will be the days of Thunder.  Play one half unit on Oklahoma City

OVER 198.5 Dallas / San Antonio

Short and Sweet.  3 of the 5 games have went over the number.  Dallas will pull out all the stops, and when Dallas runs the floor and guns it, they are much better as a team and stand a better chance of winning this elimination game.  That’s the bottom line here.  I see 206 on my power ratings, and that is over a 7+ point overlay.

Play 1 Unit on the Over. 

LA Clippers -1.5

I like LA better away from home and the distractions and since they got over the hump I like them to close this out, they are the better team and with Curry inconsistent and the defense of Golden St nonexistent, I am all over the Clips with less than 1 bucket to get it done on the road tonight.  The death of Sterling’s son has no impact, he was not involved with the team.

Play 2 Units on the Clippers  

Toronto -3 to 3.5

The road dog in this series is 3-0-1 ATS.  I expect that trend to switch tonight as we have a young team, at home who is hungry.  The age of the Nets is of concern here against the youth of the Raptors and I think that shows tonight.  The Raptors just won by 8 at Brooklyn and they are playing the better defense and although they do not have a dominant home record for the season, home court tonight in a Game 5 scenario with basically a 3 pointer to lay is line value in my opinion. 

Play 1 Unit on Toronto

Bulls / Wizards OVER 182.5

I have been on a totals play in this series 3 times and cashed them all and it is apparent that the Vaunted Bulls defense cannot stop the Wiz from scoring.  ALL 4 have went OVER and the oddsmakers have actually adjusted this down.  This is a HUGE game for both teams, expect all the stops to be pulled, and the total is in play here.  In the playoffs, the Bulls last 8 playoff games in the quarterfinals have all went OVER!

Play 1 Unit on the Over

BONUS PLAY – Warrior’s +6.  LA in a tailspin, going to take the points.  A team wins by 21 and then is a 6 point pup?  Really??  Play a half unit bonus play on the Warriors of Golden State

Miami -8

Real simple – Elimination Game for Charlotte who has no answer, lost 20 something straight to the Heat and Jefferson is doubtful and he is their leading scorer.  The Bobcat Bench produced 4 points in the last game (deplorable), and with Jefferson limited or out they stand NO CHANCE here.  The Heat Bench put out 31 in the last game and James is on a roll big time.  Charlottes vaunted defense in a tailspin.  Look for a blowout closer tonight from Miami. 

Play 1 Unit on Miami

Chicago at Washington Total 182.5

These two have gone over the total in all of their playoff games.  Vegas has only adjusted the line by a point or so each time.  The Wizards pull out all the stops today and this total goes over again.  This is worthy of a 2 Dime Top Play

Play two units on this Top Play Over 182.5

Over 188 Miami / Charlotte
 
Charlotte was deplorable from the floor in Game 2 and LeBron is putting up 29 ppg and Wade 19 in this series to date and Miami is clicking on all cylinders.  The Bobcats are known for defense but it is apparent that Miami who has beaten the Bobcats 18 straight times is not a good matchup for the home team and the OVER is 5-0 ATS the last 5 Meetings
 
Play 1 Unit on the Over

San Antonio -3.5 - HALF UNIT - Cannot count out the best team on the road in the NBA off a loss where they fell apart in Game 2 here.  Look for the Spurs to bounce back in a high scoring game, as Dallas will try to press and I expect Parker and Duncan to have a better game this go around. 

Over 182 Washington / Chicago
 
The totals from the first two games were 195 and 200 and Oddsmakers have adjusted this line up 2 points from the last game.  The Bulls cannot stop with their vaunted defense, Washington's attack and without scoring 95+ the Bulls cannot win a game here.  This is a Huge game for Chicago and they will pull out all the stops, and Washington's impressive 107 ppg their last 5 will continue. 
 
Play 1 Unit on the OVER

LA Clippers -1.5

Golden St got a dose of reality in game 2 and I think it continues here in their home opener.  A 40 point loss does show you when LA shows up, the vast difference between these 2 teams and I will lay a short number with the better team, on a short road trip.

Play 1 Unit on the Clippers

Memphis +2

If you watch closely OK City is overrated.  Oddsmakers BEGGING to lay it with them here, Memphis is capable of beating them in this series as Durant and Westbrook are OK City’s only scorers.  I like Memphis, I like their defense, they are a pesky and physical team and Randolph is a stud.  They dominated the paint in the last game and while Durant is going to have his 30+ a game, I like the fact that OK City is averaging the same amount of points scored as allowed in their last 5.  HUGE game for Memphis off a win, I am taking them here.  Thunder 3-11 ATS in this series and 1-6 ATS on the road against a team with a winning record.

Play 1 Unit on Memphis

Atlanta +2

Whole world will be on Indiana, Atlanta is not all that tough at home but in this spot off a brutal; beat down and poor shooting, I will gladly take them here.  I doubt Indiana can match the shooting percentage on the road that they enjoyed in their last game, zig zag theory in play here, taking the Hawks.

Play 1 Unit on Atlanta

Houston -6

Zig Zag Theory here.  Houston lost Game 1 by 2 in OT and I expect them to bounce back convincingly tonight at home.  Harden and Howard scored plenty in Game 1, Linn did a nice job off the bench but 1 player killed them and I do not see Aldridge matching his 46 points tonight.  Houston capable here of a 10+ point win.  Portland only got 7 points from their bench and blew their wad in game 1 and Howard while having 27 points did not play all that well.  Look fro Houston to bounce back.  SU Winners in the Playoffs cover 77% of the time.

Play 2 Units on Houston

Chicago / Washington OVER 181.5

Like the offense of the Wiz here, the vaunted Bulls defense gave up 102 ppg in game 1 and while I do not see Washington scoring over a 100 this time around, both teams at 90+ here in a shootout.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER

Toronto -4

Zig Zag theory in place here.  Taking a home team who lost Game 1, and with a short number unlike Atlanta for instance, this is manageable and I fully expect the Raptors to make amends for a poor performance and play vastly better defense in this game on Tuesday Night.  The difference in the last game was simple, turnovers, the Raptors had 19 and the Nets just 9.  The Nets only hit 16% from 3 point range and still won, and points off turnovers was the culprit.  I expect a much sharper performance tonight from Toronto.

Play 2 Units on Toronto

Warriors +8

Too many points.  When the Clippers do not play defense and you give a team like Golden State chances to score with their lineup, they will hang tight in these games.  Curry is a madman and can light it up and LA looked lethargic and out of sync in Game 1 and while I expect them to bounce back, the oddsmakers have adjusted this line by basically 1 point with a team who is catching points who is clearly capable of winning any game in this series. Golden State has won 4 out of the last 6 straight up and have the better defense.

Play 1 Unit on Golden State 

Atlanta +8

Pacers laying 8?  Really.  They struggled the last month and the Hawks offense alone will keep them in this one.  Atlanta is scary getting points on the board and you are giving them 8.  Pacers seeding here is not indicative of their recent form late in the season and this series will not come easy.  Atlanta also has a good bench.  Contrarian play but I will grab big points in the playoffs…

Play 2 Units on Atlanta