6* West Virginia/Baylor Big 12 *CA$H COW* on West Virginia +3

The Key: Baylor is 4-1 but should have lost to Ohio State.  West Virginia is 1-3 but could easily be 5-0 with 3 losses by 6 to Maryland, by 3 to Oklahoma and by 3 to Texas Tech.  Because of this fact, we are getting the Mountaineers at a nice underdog price here despite the fact that they are the better team.  This is a circle the wagons game for the Mountaineers with their season on the line.  Bets against home favorites like Baylor after scoring 14 points or less last game against an opponent that scored 3 points or less in the first half last game are 37-11 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take West Virginia.

6* Michigan State/Rutgers Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Rutgers +5.5

The Key: I like the spot for Rutgers.  They just played 2 of the best teams in the Big Ten in Ohio State and Michigan.  This is a step down in class against Michigan State despite the Spartans being 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS.  They have done it against a weak schedule and are clearly getting too much respect from the books now after the unbeaten start and #11 national ranking.  Rutgers has played the toughest schedule and is only giving up 21.2 PPG and 319 YPG.  They are holding opponents to 82 YPG below their season averages.  Michigan State gives up 429 YPG, allowing 110 YPG more than Rutgers.  So the Scarlet Knights make up for their worse offense than Michigan State with the much better defense.  This line should be closer to PK.  So the price is right to back the Scarlet Knights +5.5 at home.  The Scarlet Knights are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after playing their last game at home.  Rutgers is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games off an ATS loss.  Take Rutgers.

7* Stanford/Arizona State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Stanford +13.5

The Key: The Arizona State Sun Devils are starting to get too much love after 2 straight blowout wins over Colorado and UCLA.  They are being asked to win this game by at least 14 points and it's too much.  Stanford has been underrated all season.  They have upset wins over both USC and Oregon, which were expected to be the 2 best teams in the Pac-12 coming into the year.  So they have proven what they are capable of.  And they are more than capable of going on the road and hanging with Arizona State and possibly pulling the upset.  The Cardinal are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.  The Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team with a winning record.  The Sun Devils are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as home favorites.  Take Stanford.

7* Rams/Seahawks NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Seattle +2.5

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Seattle Seahawks tonight as home underdogs to the Los Angeles Rams.  Russell Wilson thrives in prime time, and he and the Seahawks will be out for revenge after getting knocked out of the playoffs by the Rams last season.  The Rams have taken a big step back defensively this year in yielding 24.8 PPG and 396.8 YPG.  The Rams are 3-16 ATS in their last 19 games after yielding 400 or more total yards in 2 straight games.  Bets against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 with a terrible defense that yields 360 YPG or more, after gaining 400 or more yards in 2 straight games are 26-5 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Seattle.

6* Panthers/Cowboys NFC *CA$H COW* on Carolina +4.5

The Key: The Carolina Panthers are 3-0 this year and continue to not get any respect from the books.  Now they have extra time to prepare for the Dallas Cowboys after beating the Houston Texans on Thursday last week.  The Cowboys are coming off a big divisional win over the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football.  This is a short week for them, adding to the great situation for the Panthers.  It is also a letdown spot off that division win on national TV.  The Panthers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games.  Carolina is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog.  Take Carolina.

6* Giants/Saints NFC *CA$H COW* on New York +7.5

The Key: The New Orleans Saints have been on the road for over a month.  They are a tired team right now.  They are getting too much respect from the books against the New York Giants this week.  They beat the Patriots 28-13 on the road last week, but it was misleading as they only had 252 total yards and were +3 in turnovers.  The Saints are only averaging 234 YPG on offense this year.  The Giants are hungry for their first win after coming close the last 2 weeks with a 1-point loss to Washington and a 3-point loss to Atlanta.  The Giants are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 road games.  New York is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 road games against NFC teams.  Take New York.

7* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Year on Louisiana Tech +19

The Key: The LA Tech Bulldogs are close to being 4-0 despite a brutal schedule.  Their 2 losses are to Mississippi State and SMU by a combined 3 points.  And they had both of them on the ropes with late leads in the 4th quarter.  This couldn't be a worst situation for NC State.  They are feeling fat and happy off their win over Clemson last week.  They won't give the Bulldogs their full attention this week.  The Wolfpack are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games against good passing teams that average 8 YPA or more.  Take Louisiana Tech.

6* Oregon/Stanford Pac-12 *CA$H COW* on Stanford +8

The Key: The Oregon Ducks are 4-0 this season and getting too much respect from the books because of it.  Their 41-19 win over Arizona last week was very misleading.  They were +5 in turnovers and didn't pull away until late.  They were outgained by 42 yards by the awful Wildcats.  Stanford has shown me enough the last 3 weeks to know they can hang here.  The Cardinal pulled the 42-28 upset at USC, then went on the road and won 41-23 at Vanderbilt.  They did lose by 11 at home to UCLA, but I like the fact that they are home again here for a 2nd straight week.  They were a tired team from all the travel going into that UCLA game.  The Ducks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as favorites.  Take Stanford.

6* Nevada/Boise State MWC *CA$H COW* on Nevada +5

The Key: Nevada has 2 full weeks to get ready for Boise State.  The Wolf Pack are a serious contender in the Mountain West and will prove that Saturday.  Boise State's numbers have not been good this season.  They are 2-2 and getting outgained by nearly 50 YPG.  Their 27-3 win over Utah State last week was very misleading as Utah State managed just 3 points despite 435 yards.  The Wolf Pack are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as dogs.  Nevada is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games off an ATS loss.  The Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games off a win.  Take Nevada.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Iowa -3

The Key: The Iowa Hawkeyes are 4-0 this season behind an elite defense that is one of the best in the country.  And defense clearly travels, so I like Iowa to cover this short 3-point spread on the road at Maryland tonight.  The Hawkeyes are giving up just 11.0 PPG and 271.5 YPG while forcing 9 turnovers in 4 games.  These teams have a common opponent in Kent State.  Iowa only gave up 264 yards to Kent State.  Maryland allowed 458 yards to the Golden Flashes.  While Iowa has already played two Top 25 teams in Indiana and Iowa State, Maryland has feasted on a weak schedule during its 4-0 start.  The Hawkeyes are more battle-tested and will get the job done here.  The Hawkeyes are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as road favorites.  The Terrapins are 9-27 ATS in their last 36 games off a win.  Maryland is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Iowa.

6* Seahawks/Vikings NFC *CA$H COW* on Minnesota +2

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3.  They will be hungry for their first victory.  And they wouldn't be home underdogs in this game if they were 2-0 instead of 0-2, which they easily could be.  Dalvin Cook fumbled when the Vikings were in FG range in OT against the Bengals and would have won had they simply kicked the FG.  Then last week kicker Joseph missed an XP and the potential game-winning 37-yard field goal at the buzzer in a 33-34 loss at Arizona.  So you could argue that they should be 2-0.  This team will not quit on the season and will dig deep here.  The Vikings have been so much better at home than on the road under Zimmer and keep in mind that both of those losses were on the road.  The Seahawks blew a 30-16 lead against the Titans last week and lost 30-33 in OT.  They gave up 212 rushing yards to the Titans and 542 yards total.  Cook should have another monster game after the Vikings rushed for 177 yards on the Cardinals last week.  The Vikings will also be revenge-minded after blowing a late lead in a 26-27 road loss to Seattle last year.  They gave up the game-winning TD with 15 seconds left.  The Seahawks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  The Vikings are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games as home underdogs.  Minnesota is 39-17 ATS in its last 56 games off a loss.  Take Minnesota.

6* Bengals/Steelers AFC North *CA$H COW* on Cincinnati +3.5

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers were fortunate to beat the Bills in Week 1 due to big players from their defense.  But the injuries caught up to them last week as they were upset at home 17-26 by the Raiders.  And it's not getting any better this week against the Bengals.  The Steelers lost their best player in TJ Watt to a groin injury after he had one sack and four tackles in the 1st quarter against the Raiders, and that's when the game turned.  They were already without LB Devin Bush and CB Joe Haden.  WR Diontae Johnson got hurt late in that game, and QB Ben Roethlisberger suffered a pec injury.  They were already without DE Stephon Tuitt as well.  No team has been hit harder by injuries than the Steelers.  The Bengals upset the Vikings in Week 1 and nearly upset the Bears last week in a 20-17 road loss.  Joe Burrow just keeps them in games, and their defense is vastly improved this year.  The Bengals actually rank 4th in the NFL in giving up just 4.5 YPP on defense through 2 games.  Cincinnati is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 Week 3 games.  Pittsburgh is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games as a favorite.  Take Cincinnati.

7* AFC Game of the Month on Los Angeles Chargers +6.5

The Key: The Kansas City Chiefs don't blow teams out, and the Los Angeles Chargers don't get blown out.  So this is a pretty easy choice for me.  The Chargers only lost 2 games all season last year by more than one score.  They they have lost by more than one score just twice in their last 18 games when you figure they won by 4 at Washington and lost by 3 at home to the Cowboys in their first 2 games this year.  The Chiefs have won just one of their last 13 games by more than one score.  That's a big reason they are just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Their leaky defense is the reason they can't blow out teams, and it has reared its ugly head again this year.  The Chiefs have yielded 469 YPG and 7.6 YPP in 2 games this year against the Browns and Ravens.  The Chargers averaged 447.5 YPG in 2 matchups with the Chiefs last year.  The Chargers are 34-15-4 ATS in their last 53 games as road dogs.  Take Los Angeles.

6* Indiana/Western Kentucky NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Western Kentucky +9.5

The Key: Indiana remains overrated with a 28-point loss at Iowa and a 14-point home loss to Cincinnati.  Western Kentucky is underrated, nearly upsetting Army in their last game.  And the Hilltoppers now have a bye week to get ready for the Hoosiers, who will be reeling from that Cincinnati loss last week.  Senior QB Bailey Zappe has already thrown for 859 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2 games for the Hilltoppers.  Take Western Kentucky.

6* Akron/Ohio State NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Akron +49.5

The Key: The Akron Zips face a poor Ohio State defense that is allowing 471 YPG this year.  QB Demarcus Irons had a huge game last week accounting for 432 total yards and 4 touchdowns as a dual-threat.  The Buckeyes will be without their starting QB in CJ Stroud for this game.  Underdogs of at least 49 points in a matchup of 2 FBS teams are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 tries dating back to 1996.  Take Akron.

7* SEC Game of the Month on South Carolina +5.5

The Key: The South Carolina Gamecocks are underrated this season.  They are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS and just played Georgia last week in a cover.  Now they get to host Kentucky, which will be playing its first road game of the year.  The Wildcats weren't impressive in their 7-point home win over Missouri or their 5-point home win as a 31-point favorite against UT-Chattanooga last week.  They barely escaped with victory over that bad FCS team, and they shouldn't be road favorites here against the Gamecocks.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  Take South Carolina.

6* UCLA/Stanford Pac-12 *CA$H COW* on Stanford +5

The Key: The Stanford Cardinal backed up their 42-28 upset win as 17-point dogs at USC with a 41-23 road win as 12.5-point favorites at Vanderbilt in a tricky spot last week.  Inserting Tanner McKee into the starting QB role against USC has made all the difference for this team.  He is completing 71.4% of his passes for 570 yards with 5 TD's and zero INT's.  Stanford is 12-1 SU & 10-2-1 ATS in its last 13 matchups with UCLA.  Take Stanford.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on UNLV +30.5

The Key: The Fresno State Bulldogs are in the ultimate letdown spot tonight.  They just upset UCLA late Saturday night in a 40-37 win as 10.5-point dogs.  That was one of the most exciting, back-and-forth games of the season.  QB Jake Haener played through an injury and just kept coming in one of the most remarkable games you will ever see by a quarterback.  He had to basically be carried off the field and cannot be 100%.  Look for the Bulldogs to be cautious with him.  They just won't be able to get up for UNLV.  This is actually a step down in competition for UNLV after facing Arizona State and Iowa State the last 2 weeks.  The Rebels are expected to get back QB Doug Brumfield after he missed the last 2 games with injury.  He played well in the opener against Eastern Washington with 117 passing yards and 9.0 YPA as well as 27 rushing yards and a score.  The Rebels only lost that game 33-35 (OT) as 2.5-point dogs against one of the best teams in FCS.  Fresno State has only won one of its last 10 matchups with the Rebels by more than 29 points.  Take UNLV.

6* Panthers/Texans TNF *CA$H COW* on Carolina -7.5

The Key: The Houston Texans are in a very tough situation tonight.  They have to try to get rookie quarterback Davis Mills ready to start in 3 days against the best defense in the league to this point in the Carolina Panthers.  This is a Panthers defense that is allowing just 10.5 PPG, 190 YPG and 3.7 YPP.  You can expect things to go very rough for Mills in this one.  I love head coach Matt Rhule who has this Panthers organization on the rise.  They have been underrated in the early going with their 2-0 ATS start with dominant wins over the Jets and then the Saints 26-7 last week.  They should improve to 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS with a win and cover at Houston Thursday night.  Take Carolina.

6* 49ers/Eagles NFC *CA$H COW* on San Francisco -3.5

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles are getting too much respect after a 32-6 win over the Atlanta Falcons last week.  That's a Falcons team that went 4-12 last year and was the worst team in the NFL in the preseason.  They might just be that bad.  The 49ers had a 24-point lead over the Lions with 2 minutes left by only won by 8.  That comeback by the Lions has the 49ers not getting the respect they deserve.  Few teams are loaded with as much talent as the 49ers when healthy, and although they do have a few injuries, they are in much better shape than they were last year.  They put up 41 points and 8.0 YPP against the Lions and are an elite offensive team.  They are also the better of these 2 teams defensively.  I like the fact that the 49ers stayed out East for this 2-game road trip to build some team chemistry.  They did this in 2019 and crushed the Bengals in this situation, and did it again in 2020 and dominated the Giants.  Now they will own the Eagles Sunday.  Bets against home teams who gave up 24 PPG or more last season, after scoring 30 points or more last game are 31-8 ATS since 1983.  The Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games off an ATS win.  Take San Francisco.

6* Broncos/Jaguars AFC *CA$H COW* on Jacksonville +6

The Key: This line is an overreaction from what happened last week.  Jacksonville was a 3.5-point favorite on the road at Houston and is now a 6-point home underdog to Denver this week after losing 21-37 to the Texans.  Denver beat a bad New York Giants team 27-13 on the road and is getting a ton of respect now.  Contrary to popular belief, the Jaguars aren't going to quit on their season already.  That was a tough spot on the road for a rookie quarterback in Trevor Lawrence in his 1st game as an NFL QB.  He will be much more comfortable at home in his 2nd start now that he got his feet wet.  And when was the last time Teddy Bridgewater was a 6-point favorite?  He has done well in the role of the underdog, but now there are expectations that will be tough to live up to.  And Bridgewater will be without one of his top receivers in Jerry Jeudy, who suffered an ankle injury last week.  LB Bradley Chubb is questionable as well.  The Jaguars have managed to stay remarkably healthy and should give a much better effort in Week 2.  The Broncos are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 14 games as favorites.  Take Jacksonville.

7* NFL Game of the Week on Cincinnati Bengals +3

The Key: Joe Burrow was impressive in his season debut and didn't look hobbled at all.  He completed 20 of 27 passes for 261 yards and 2 touchdowns to lead the Bengals to a 27-24 (OT) win over the Vikings.  Joe Mixon had 127 yards on the ground as the Bengals did pretty much whatever they wanted to against a good Vikings defense.  Now the Bengals take a step down here against a weak Bears offense and defense.  That was evident in their 34-14 loss to the Rams to open the season.  The Bears averaged just 4.7 YPP on offense and gave up 7.7 YPP on defense in a game that was every bit the blowout that the final score showed.  The Bears are missing several key players in LB Trevathan, NT Goldman, RB Cohen and could be without T Peters.  Andy Dalton clearly is not the answer at QB and will struggle against his former team as well.  Chicago is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games as a home favorite.  Take Cincinnati.

6* Oklahoma State/Boise State NCAAF *BAILOUT* on Boise State -3

The Key: Oklahoma State is fortunate to be 2-0 SU despite being a 38-point favorite in a 23-16 win over Missouri State and a 10.5-point favorite in a 28-23 win over Tulsa.  They needed 21 points in the 4th quarter to beat Tulsa.  This team just isn't very good, and they have all kinds of injury problems on offense at receiver and along the offensive line.  Even QB Spencer Sanders is playing through injury and cannot be trusted in a hostile road environment here at Boise State to not turn the ball over.  Boise only lost 31-36 at UCF before crushing UTEP 54-13 last Friday.  Now they have had an extra day to get ready for this game against the Cowboys and will be amped up with a Big 12 team coming to the Blue Turf.  The Cowboys are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  The Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as home favorites.  Take Boise State.

6* Stanford/Vanderbilt NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Vanderbilt +12

The Key: The Stanford Cardinal are in a letdown spot after upsetting USC last week.  Now they step outside the Pac-12 here against Vanderbilt before having to play UCLA and Oregon the next 2 weeks.  Stanford lost 24-7 to Kansas State in the opener and that result seems to be forgotten here with this line.  Vanderbilt upset Colorado State 24-21 on the road last week and improved as much as anyone from Week 1 to Week 2.  The number is just too high here in a game that is likely to be decided by one score either way.  Bets on home dogs that allowed 5.5 YPC or more last game against an opponent that has allowed 5.5 YPC or more in 2 straight games are 26-5 ATS since 1992.  Take Vanderbilt.

7* NCAAF Game of the Week on Utah -8.5

The Key: Kyle Whittingham called out his team after losing the line of scrimmage to BYU in their upset loss last week.  Look for his players to respond here, and for the Utes to put it on the San Diego State Aztecs.  San Diego State will be without starting QB Jordan Brookshire after he was knocked out of the Arizona game last week.  The Aztecs have played a weak schedule of New Mexico State and Arizona thus far, so this is a big step up in competition.  San Diego State was actually outgained by New Mexico State in their opener.  That's a New Mexico State team that lost 30-3 to UTEP and 34-25 to New Mexico.  Whittingham is 22-7 ATS after a game where his team forced zero turnovers as the coach of Utah.  The Utes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 against Mountain West teams.  Utah is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last 5 matchups with four of the wins coming by 16 points or more.  Take Utah.

6* Tulsa/Ohio State NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Tulsa +25

The Key: Tulsa had a bunch of key players suspended when they were upset by Cal Davis in their opener.  They got those players back last week against Oklahoma State and played more like their true selves.  They only lost 23-28 as 10.5-point dogs after giving up 21 points in the 4th quarter to the Cowboys, nearly pulling the upset.  They have the belief that they can hang with Ohio State, which cannot stop anyone.  They gave up 31 points to a bad Minnesota offense in their opener and gave up 35 points and 505 yards to Oregon last week in their upset loss.  Their problems on defense just aren't fixable in one week.  Tulsa has a great defense of its own that was one of the best in the AAC last year and has almost everyone back this year.  The Golden Hurricane are 28-11 ATS in their last 39 road games, including 6-0 ATS in road games over the last 2 years.  The Buckeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.  Take Tulsa.

6* Nebraska/Oklahoma NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Nebraska +22.5

The Key: Nebraska should be 3-0.  They gave the game away in the opener against Illinois with turnovers and mistakes.  But they have responded well with back-to-back wins and covers in a 52-7 win over Fordham and a 28-3 win over Buffalo.  They can hang with Oklahoma, which let Tulane nearly upset them in the opener in a 40-35 win as 31-point favorites.  The Sooners just can't get enough stops defensively to trust them to cover this big of a number.  Adrian Martinez is playing the best football of his career and is a veteran QB who can keep the Huskers in this game.  Take Nebraska.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Illinois +7

The Key: I like the price we are getting on Illinois tonight as 7-point dogs to Maryland.  We are getting this price because Illinois is coming off two bad losses in a row to UTSA and Virginia.  But keep in mind that Illinois upset Nebraska at home in their opener with a healthy Brandon Peters at quarterback.  Peters left that game and hasn't returned since.  But Peters is now back this week and will give the offense a spark.  I think Maryland is overrated off a 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start that included a win against Howard.  The other win was gift-wrapped to them by West Virginia who lost the turnover battle 4-0 in a 30-24 win by the Terrapins.  The Fighting Illini will put up a much better fight than they have the last 2 weeks in this standalone home game in front of a good crowd and with Peters back under center.  Bets on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 6.25 YPP or more last game that has 8 or more offensive starters including their QB returning in the first month of the season are 23-5 ATS since 1992.  Take Illinois.

7* Giants/Washington TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington -3

The Key: Washington has the edge at the line of scrimmage in a big way on both sides of the football in this game.  That will help make up for having a backup QB in Taylor Heinicke, who actually played really well in replacing Ryan Fitzpatrick in the first half last week.  He completed 11 of his 15 passes for 120 yards with a score and didn't turn the ball over.  Washington will be able to rely in Gibson to run the ball after the Broncos rushed for 156 yards on the Giants last week.  The Giants only ran for 60 yards on 20 carries and Saquon Barkley is questionable.  Daniel Jones isn't very good and will be without his safety valve in TE Evan Engram.  This has Washington blowout written all over it.  Take Washington.

6* Ohio/Louisiana NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Ohio +21

The Key: This line would have been closer to a touchdown coming into the season, so the price is right to back Ohio off 2 straight upset losses to Syracuse and Duquesne.  The betting public wants nothing to do with this team now, which is why we are catching 3 touchdowns.  But Louisiana hasn't been any more impressive, losing by 20 as 8.5-point dogs at Texas and only beating Nicholls State by 3 as 25.5-point favorites last week.  They allowed over 500 yards to Nicholls State.  The Bobcats are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as underdogs.  The Bobcats are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 Thursday games.  Take Ohio.

6* Browns/Chiefs AFC *CA$H COW* on Kansas City -6

The Key: The Cleveland Browns are 0-15-1 SU in Week 1 games over the past 16 seasons.  They have to try to end that streak against the best team in the NFL in the Kansas City Chiefs, who are 6-0 SU in their last 6 Week 1 games and scoring 37.4 PPG in those contests.  The Chiefs are loaded on offense again and upgraded their offensive line in the offseason to help protect Patrick Mahomes.  The Chiefs have an underrated defense as well.  Keep in mind the Chiefs were 8.5-point favorites at home against the Browns in the playoffs last year and now are only 6-point favorites in Week 1.  So based off those lines there is some value here with the Chiefs.  They should win by a TD or more to open their season.  Take Kansas City.

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Week on Cincinnati Bengals +3

The Key: I don't like the outlook of the Minnesota Vikings this season.  They went 0-3 in the preseason and were outscored by 10.6 PPG.  Their defense was a problem last year in allowing 29.7 PPG and 393.3 YPG.  It will be better but not much.  The Bengals were good when Joe Burrow was running the show.  He had 5 300-yard passing games in his 10 starts.  Burrow is back healthy and the offense is loaded.  He is playing behind an offensive line that didn't allow a single sack in the preseason.  And the defense will be improved.  The Vikings are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall and shouldn't be favored on the road here.  Take Cincinnati.

6* Washington/Michigan NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Washington +7

The Key: I like the price we are getting on Washington after an upset loss to Montana last week.  Montana is one of the best FCS teams in the country.  The Huskies gave the game away being -3 in turnovers.  Their defense is elite and held Montana to 232 total yards.  And their defense is good enough to keep this game with Michigan competitive.  The Wolverines are getting some respect now after blowing out Western Michigan 47-14 last week.  This will be a much stiffer challenge for them, especially now that they lost their best receiver in Ronnie Bell to a knee injury last week.  Washington is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 road games after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse.  Michigan is 32-51 ATS in its last 83 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.  The Wolverines are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games against Pac-12 teams.  Take Washington.

6* Texas A&M/Colorado NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Texas A&M -16.5

The Key: The Texas A&M Aggies are loaded this year under Jimbo Fisher.  They finished as the #4 ranked team in the country last season and brought back 15 starters, including 9 on defense.  That defense held Kent State to just 10 points and 336 total yards last week, and that's a Kent State offense that has an NFL QB and is one of the best offenses in the country.  They also scored 41 points and freshman starter Haynes King got his feet wet.  He should be much sharper this week against Colorado.  The Buffaloes won their opener 35-7 as 38-point favorites over Northern Colorado.  The Buffaloes had terrible QB play and lost starter Sam Noyer to the transfer portal.  Brandon Lewis went 10 of 15 passing for 102 yards against Northern Colorado.  I think when the Buffaloes fall behind big early they aren't going to be able to play catch up.  They have one of the worst QB situations in the country.  Tennessee transfer JT Shrout was expected to start this season but is out with a knee injury.  Lewis is a good runner but very inaccurate with his throws.  Bets on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points after one or more consecutive wins in the first month of the season after closing last season with three or more consecutive wins are 27-6 ATS over the last 10 years.  Fisher is 9-1 ATS in non-conference games at Texas A&M.  The Aggies are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games.  Take Texas A&M.

7* NCAAF Game of the Week on Middle Tennessee +20

The Key: Middle Tennessee is primed to be one of the most improved teams in the country this year.  16th-year head coach Rick Stockstill brought back 19 starters and added in NC State transfer Bailey Hockman at quarterback.  The Blue Raiders won their opener 50-15 over Monmouth as an 8.5-point favorite.  That was a quality FCS team that came into the season ranked 13th in the country.  Hockman went 17-of-22 passing for 215 yards and three touchdowns in the win.  This is a letdown spot for Virginia Tech coming off a big upset win over North Carolina in the opener last week.  The Hokies took advantage of three UNC turnovers in a 17-10 win.  Their offense is a problem with just 296 total yards against a weak UNC defense.  And they are going to have a hard time covering this big number with their offense.  Hockman and company can keep up with them on the scoreboard.  And don't be surprised if the Hokies are flat off that upset win, and with a game against West Virginia on deck.  The Blue Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as underdogs.  The Hokies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games off a win.  Take Middle Tennessee.

6* Tulsa/Oklahoma State NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Tulsa +13

The Key: Tulsa went 6-3 last year and only lost 24-27 to Cincinnati in the AAC Championship Game.  Their other 2 losses came by 9 at Oklahoma State and by 2 to Mississippi State in the Armed Forces Bowl.  There was a brawl at the end of that game that led to some key suspensions for the Golden Hurricane for their opener against Cal Davis.  That's a big reason they were upset 17-19 as 23.5-point favorites.  But those players are back this week and this is a strong team that returns 18 starters from last year.  They will give the Cowboys another run for their money, just as they did in their matchup last year.  Oklahoma State was unimpressive in its opener, too.  The Cowboys only beat Missouri State 23-16 as 38-point favorites.  Asking them to come back and win by 2 touchdowns against this quality Tulsa team is asking a lot.  The Golden Hurricane are 27-11 ATS in their last 38 road games, including 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Take Tulsa.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Kansas +26.5

The Key: The Kansas Jayhawks had one of the best hires of the offseason by bringing in Lance Leipold from Buffalo.  He took the Bulls to 2 MAC title games the past 3 seasons and previously went 109-6 at D-3 Wisconsin-Whitewater.  He is one of the best up and coming head coaches in the country.  Les Miles didn't leave the cupboard bare as he has 16 returning starters and Miles recruited as well as he could have to Kansas.  The Jayhawks went 0-9 last year, so the fact that they finally won a game even though it was against South Dakota in the opener is a big step in the right direction.  It will give these players some confidence moving forward.  Now they face an overrated Coastal Carolina team that nearly went undefeated last year.  Because of that, you are paying a tax to back Coastal Carolina.  Keep in mind Kansas was a 4.5-point home favorite against Coastal Carolina last year and is now a 26.5-point underdog this year, a 31-point adjustment.  Kansas lost that game 23-38, but they outgained Coastal 367 to 318 for the game.  But they were -3 in turnovers which was the difference.  I just think the price is right to back the Jayhawks here as they stay within 4 touchdowns of the Chanticleers.  Take Kansas.

7* Cowboys/Bucs NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Tampa Bay -8

The Key: Dak Prescott hasn't played since October after not playing in the preseason.  He won't be able to turn around and hand the ball off much because the Bucs ranked 1st in the NFL against the run last season.  He's going to have to chuck it around, and he's going to have to do so behind a patchwork offensive line that is missing a couple starters.  He's also going to be playing from behind because the Bucs will score at will against a Cowboys defense that gave up nearly 30 PPG last year.  The Bucs have great chemistry with amazingly all 22 starters returning from their Super Bowl team.  They will be clicking from the start this season, while it's going to take the Cowboys some time to gel.  Take Tampa Bay.

7* Louisville/Ole Miss NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Ole Miss -9

The Key: There's a lot to like about Ole Miss this year coming off a 5-5 season in which they took Alabama to the wire and beat Indiana in their bowl game.  The Rebels have an elite offense that put up 39.2 PPG and 556 YPG last year.  They have 8 starters back on offense and QB Matt Corral.  They have 9 starters back on defense and will be improved there.  Louisville went 4-7 last year with its 4 wins all coming in the role of the favorite against overmatched teams like WKU, Syracuse, Florida State and Wake.  Only 13 starters return for the Cardinals and they lose all of their big playmakers on offense, which is going to make it hard for them to keep up with Ole Miss on the scoreboard in a shootout in this one.  The Rebels will get their points.  Take Ole Miss.

6* Utah State/Washington State NCAAF *BAILOUT* on Utah State +17.5

The Key: Utah State went from 11-2 in 2018 to 7-6 in 2019 and just 1-5 last year.  Gary Andersen was clearly not the answer over the last 2 seasons.  Enter Blake Anderson, who comes over from Arkansas State after leading the Red Wolves to 6 bowls in the past 7 seasons.  He brings with him some elite transfers from the Red Wolves in QB Logan Bonner, first-team All-Sun Belt LB Justin Rice and WR Brandon Browning.  He inherits some good talent with 19 returning starters as well, so this isn't a rebuilding year.  I do think Washington State is also a team on the rise, but this line is too high for Week 1.  The Cougars went 1-3 in Nick Rolovich's first season with their only win coming against lowly Oregon State in their opener.  The three losses all came by 14 points or more.  Take Utah State.

6* Saturday NCAAF *UPSET SPECIAL* on UTSA +5

The Key: The Illinois Fighting Illini pulled the upset over the Nebraska Cornhuskers in their opener last week.  But they lost starting QB Brandon Peters, and now they'll be going with backup Art Sitkowski, who was terrible at Rutgers before coming here.  And Nebraska basically gave that game away.  Now Illinois is in a letdown spot facing UTSA, a team from Conference USA.  But this is one of the best teams in Conference USA and fully capable of pulling the upset.  The Roadrunners went 7-5 last year with one of their losses coming at BYU by just 7 points, and that was one of the best teams in the country last year.  They also only lost by 7 to Louisiana (11-1) in their bowl game.  The Roadrunners have 21 returning starters and are absolutely loaded.  They didn't have a single spring practice last year and now they get a full spring to get better in Jeff Traylor's 2nd season.  The Roadrunners are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games.  UTSA is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games as a road dog.  The Fighting Illini are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.  Take UTSA.

6* SJSU/USC NCAAF *CA$H COW* on San Jose State +14

The Key: San Jose State won the underrated Mountain West Conference last year.  They return 19 starters from that team including QB Nick Starkel, who is an absolute stud.  10 starters are back on defense from a unit that allowed just 19.9 PPG last year.  USC is getting a lot of hype this year after going 5-1 last year.  But 3 of those wins came by 5 points or less so they were fortunate to have that record.  And I'm just not sold on the Trojans yet until I see them live up to expectations.  San Jose State can give them a run for their money here in the opener.  I like that the Spartans have a game under their belt, winning 45-14 over Southern Utah as a 25.5-point favorite.  That will give them an edge here.  The Spartans are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games as road dogs.  The Trojans are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.  Take San Jose State.

7* Fresno/Oregon NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Fresno State +20.5

The Key: The Fresno State Bulldogs looked great in their 45-0 win over Connecticut.  The had 538 yards of offense and will be great on that side of the ball again this year.  They gave up just 107 yards on defense and will be improved there as well.  Oregon did give up 28.3 PPG and 406 YPG last year and won't be great defensively, especially with all the players they are missing in their secondary for the opener.  Anthony Brown is a downgrade at QB now that Tyler Shough left.  Oregon will be good this year, but they are now 3 touchdowns better than this tough Fresno State team from an underrated Mountain West Conference.  The Bulldogs are 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 games, including 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Pac-12 games.  Take Fresno State.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Duke -6.5

The Key: The Duke Blue Devils are flying under the radar coming into the 2021 season.  That's because they went just 2-9 last season.  But they were much better than their record.  Amazingly, the Blue Devils finished -19 in turnover differential last year.  It can only get better this year with improved QB play as Chase Brice transferred and was a turnover machine.  One of Duke's win last year came against this same Charlotte team as they blew them out of the building, 53-19.  Now they are just being asked to cover a 6.5-point here and win by a TD or more to cover.  I certainly like the price.  Charlotte went 2-4 last year with its only wins coming against North Texas and UTEP.  Three losses came by 15 points or more.  The 49ers only have 5 starters back on defense and should get picked apart on that side of the field this season.  Take Duke.

7* Thursday NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on East Carolina +10

The Key: The East Carolina Pirates were much better than their 3-6 record last year.  They got robby against Tulsa by the refs the week after losing to Navy by 4.  But they played their best football of the season the last 2 games beating Temple by 25 and upsetting SMU outright by 14 as 12-point dogs.  That gives them a lot of momentum heading into 2021.  Now they have a whopping 20 starters back and a veteran QB in Holton Ahlers who will be starting for a 3rd straight year.  It is head coach Mike Houston's 3rd season here and it is his best team by far.  Appalachian State took a step back in Shawn Clark's first season last year with a 9-3 record.  The 9 wins were all against bad teams, and they lost to the best teams they faced in Louisiana, Coastal Carolina and Marshall.  The Mountaineers will be starting a new QB this year in Duke transfer Chase Brice.  I just think it's asking a lot of them to win this game by double-digits in their opener against what will be a much improved ECU team from the AAC.  It is also on a neutral field in Charlotte and not a true home game for App State, which is big because they've had such a huge home-field advantage through the years.  Take East Carolina.

6* Saturday NCAAF *CA$H COW* on UConn +28

The Key: I like the price on the UConn Huskies catching 4 touchdowns today to the Fresno State Bulldogs.  Nobody wants to bet on UConn because they sat out last season.  So we're buying at a bargain in Week 1.  The Huskies do have 14 starters back and this should be the best team that Randy Edsall has had since he returned to Connecticut.  Edsall said during a normal football season your team does not get bigger and stronger, but the Huskies were able to do that last fall.  They had 25 practices and 3-4 weight sessions per week.  They also had 12 spring practices and 91 players available.  Fresno went 3-3 last year with its 3 wins coming against the bottom feeders of the Mountain West in UNLV, Utah State and Colorado State.  They didn't win any of those games by more than 21 points.  Asking them to win by more than 4 touchdowns here is asking a lot.  Take UConn.

7* Chiefs/Bucs Super Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Tampa Bay +3

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs have been dominant since their bye week.  They are 7-0 since their bye and scoring 34 PPG.  The Bucs have the offense to keep up with Patrick Mahomes, who will be running for his life in the Super Bowl without the services of his 2 starting offensive tackles.  The Bucs have the way better defense in this game as they are 6th in the NFL on that side of the ball while the Chiefs are only 18th.  And Tampa Bay will be playing at home.  The Bucs did not play well at all in their first matchup with the Chiefs this season and still only lost 24-27.  They will have their revenge here on the biggest stage of them all with Tom Brady doing what he does.  Take Tampa Bay.

7* NFC Playoffs Game of the Year on Green Bay Packers -3

The Key: The Green Bay Packers have won 7 straight games all by 7 points or more.  They have won those games by an average of nearly 15 PPG.  I think we are getting the Packers cheap as only 3-point home favorites against the Bucs in the NFC Championship Game.  The Bucs will be on the road for the 3rd straight week, and teams in this situation haven't fared well.  The Packers are still very fresh after getting that bye and haven't had to leave home.  They made easy work of the Rams in a 32-18 victory.  They outgained the Rams by 240 yards in that game and put up 484 yards against what was thought to be one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Bucs struggled to move the ball against the Saints and the Packers have a good pass defense.  The Bucs benefited from a +4 turnover differential against the Saints, who basically gave that game away after having a 20-13 lead in the second half, getting outscored 17-0 the rest the way.  The Bucs scored 21 points off turnovers.  Aaron Rodgers doesn't turn the ball over.  He has 50 touchdown passes and only 5 interceptions this year.  The Packers have won 8 of their 9 home games this year with an average margin of victory of 12.4 PPG.   They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record.  Take Green Bay.

6* Bucs/Saints NFC *BAILOUT* on Tampa Bay +3

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs want to avenge their 2 regular season losses to the Saints.  They turned the ball over too often and did not play well at all.  But they have been a completely different team since those first 2 matchups.  The Bucs have won 5 straight and are scoring 35.8 PPG during this streak.  They just put up 507 yards against an elite Washington defense last week.  And you know Tom Brady will make the proper adjustments that will allow their offense to have success against the Saints the 3rd time he faces them here.  The Bucs also get good news with LB Devin White returning from a COVID absence against Washington.  He is their best defensive player with 140 tackles and 18 of those coming for loss, including 9 sacks.  The Bucs will avenge those 2 defeats with an upset victory Sunday night.  Take Tampa Bay.

7* AFC Playoffs Game of the Year on Kansas City Chiefs -10

The Key: Andy Reid has a proven track record of being the best coach in the NFL to back off a bye.  The Chiefs needed a bye as they just seemed to be going through the motions down the stretch.  Now they will turn the switch on and put their best foot forward in the playoffs.  And that will be enough to put away the Cleveland Browns by double-digits.  The Browns had everything go their way against the Steelers by forcing 5 turnovers.  They still gave up 37 points and 553 total yards.  They gave up 47 points to Baltimore and 35 points to Tennessee recently.  The Chiefs will do whatever they want to against this soft Cleveland defense.  And I don't trust Baker Mayfield to be able to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and company.  The Browns are 1-10 ATS int heir last 11 road games off a win by 10 points or more over a division opponent.  Cleveland is 9-26-2 ATS in its last 37 games against a team with a winning record.  Take Kansas City.

7* Ohio State/Alabama NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -8.5

The Key: The Alabama Crimson Tide are going to go down as one of the best teams in college football history.  They have an elite defense as always, giving up 19 PPG.  But their offense is a record-setting one that will continue to pile on the points against Ohio State.  The Crimson Tide average 48.2 PPG and 535 YPG this year as they have outscored their foes by 29.2 PPG on the season.  And they have let up in the 2nd half of most their games.  They won't let up against the Buckeyes after seeing what they did to Clemson last week.  That was an aberration as the Buckeyes managed just 22 points against Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship the week prior.  Clemson just allowed receivers to get behind them the entire game, which was a terrible strategy.  I trust Nick Saban to make the proper adjustments defensively.  And the weakness of this Ohio State defense is their secondary, which allowed 491 passing yards to Indiana and 400 more to Clemson.  That's bad news going up against Mac Jones, Devonta Smith and perhaps Jaylen Waddle returning.  The Buckeyes are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after yielding more than 280 passing yards in their last game.  The Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against Big Ten opponents.  The Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games off an ATS loss.  Take Alabama.

7* NFL Wild Card Game of the Year on Pittsburgh Steelers -6

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers nearly beat the Cleveland Browns last week even with resting their starters.  They lost 22-24 but gained 394 yards with a backup QB.  They were a failed 2-point conversion from forcing OT.  Now the Steelers have their starters back and will win and cover in the rematch similar to when they beat the Browns 38-7 at home earlier this year.  Roethlisberger is 24-2-1 all-time against Cleveland and has never lost to them at home.  The Steelers are now 26-2 SU & 18-9-1 ATS in their last 28 home matchups with Cleveland.  The Browns will now be without head coach Kevin Stefanski due to COVID, and he is their play-caller on offense.  It's a huge loss.  The Browns are 8-26-2 ATS in their last 36 vs. a team with a winning record.  Cleveland is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 road games.  The Steelers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine playoff home games.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 matchups.  Take Pittsburgh.

6* Bears/Saints NFC *CA$H COW* on Chicago +10.5

The Key: The Bears go from being 4.5-point dogs to the Packers last week to 10.5-point dogs to the Saints.  The Packers just have their number, but they were competitive in their other 14 games this season.  And they will be competitive against the Saints as they continue playing their best football of the season down the stretch.  The Bears have scored 30.2 PPG and averaged 382.2 YPG in their last 6 games, all of which have come with Trubisky as their starter.  They still have a great defense that allows 344.1 YPG.  The Saints are getting too much respect from their 33-7 win over the Panthers in Week 17 in which the Panthers turned the ball over 5 times, including a couple INT in the end zone.  The Bears only lost 23-26 (OT) as 5-point dogs in their first matchup with the Saints this year and now are getting 10.5 points in the rematch.  The Saints are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 playoff home games.  Teams in the wild card round with a .500 record or worse are 7-0 ATS since 2004 while winning 6 of those games outright.  Take Chicago.

6* Rams/Seahawks NFC *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles +3.5

The Key: The Rams were 3-point favorites in their first matchup with the Seahawks in which they won 23-16 at home.  And they were only 1.5-point dogs in their second matchup in which they lost 9-20 in Seattle.  Now they are 3.5-point dogs in the playoffs.  That's a 6.5-point adjustment from that first matchup and a 2-point adjustment from the 2nd.  The price is right to back the Rams here.  They have a Super Bowl defense and should get Jared Goff back.  Even if they somehow don't, John Wolford proved he could lead the offense with a huge win in a must-win Week 17 game.  The Rams beat the Cardinals 18-7 and outgained them by 119 yards while holding them to just 214 yards.  They also outgained the Seahawks by 56 yards in their first matchup and by 42 yards in their 2nd matchup this year.  The Rams are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 against NFC opponents.  Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 against a team with a winning record.  The Seahawks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games off a win.  Take Los Angeles.

6* Washington/Philadelphia NFC East *CA$H COW* on Washington -3.5

The Key: Washington is expected to have its top 3 weapons on offense back this week in QB Alex Smith, WR Terry McClaurin and RB Antonio Gibson.  That is going to make all the difference in this game as Washington is 10-5 with Smith as a starter since he came to Washington and 6-26 without him.  The Eagles are missing several guys in the secondary, plus Fletcher Cox, Derek Barnett and Shaun Bradley up front.  They are also without DeSean Jackson, Miles Sanders and Dallas Goedert on offense.  Washington will be able to move the ball and score points on a soft Philadelphia defense that has yielded over 500 yards in 2 consecutive games.  And this elite Washington defense that has yielded 20 points or fewer in 6 straight games will make life hell on Jalen Hurts.  Washington is on a mission to win the NFC East, while Philadelphia has officially been eliminated from playoff contention after a bad 17-37 loss at Dallas last week.  The Eagles are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games off a road loss as a favorite.  Take Washington.

6* Cardinals/Rams NFC West *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles +3

The Key: The Rams went from being 4-point favorites to 3-point underdogs with the news that Jared Goff would miss this game with a thumb injury.  He is not worth 7 points to this team.  In fact, Goff is the player that is holding them back from reaching their full potential.  Of course he is better than backup John Wolford, but Sean McVey is a genius and will have the right game plan to put the former Wake Forest product in a good position to be successful.  And McVey owns the Cardinals as the Rams are 7-0 SU & 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 matchups.  Los Angeles has won those 7 games by an average of 21.3 PPG.  That includes their 38-28 win earlier this season that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Rams outgained the Cardinals 463 to 232 in that contest.  And Kyler Murray will be playing through a leg injury he suffered in a bad 12-20 loss to the 49ers last week.  The Cardinals were outgained by 2.8 YPP in that game as they averaged just 4.4 YPP on offense and gave up 7.2 YPP on defense.  And that was against a terrible, banged up 49ers team that was playing with a 3rd-string QB in CJ Beathard.  The 49ers had lost 6 of their previous 7 games coming in.  The Cardinals are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as favorites.  The Rams are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games off an ATS loss, and 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games off a SU loss.  Take Los Angeles.

7* AFC East Game of the Year on New York Jets +3

The Key: The Jets have been one of the most profitable teams in the NFL to back down the stretch.  They are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  They have pulled off 2 straight upsets over the Rams as 17.5-point dogs and Browns as 6.5-point dogs.  And now they would love to get revenge from a 27-30 loss to the Patriots in their first matchup this season.  The Patriots are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games overall, getting outscored a combined 24-84 in the process.  They haven't even been competitive.  If they were going to show something it would have been against the Bills on Monday Night Football last week.  Instead they rolled over and lost 9-38.  Their offense is broken as they have been held to either 12 points or fewer or 291 yards or fewer in 5 straight games coming in.  They are missing several key contributors on both sides of the football.  The wrong team is favored in this matchup.  The Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as favorites.  Take New York.

7* UNC/Texas A&M NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas A&M -7

The Key: Texas A&M just completed a dominant 8-1 season in which they proved they were one of the best teams in college football.  Their lone loss came to Alabama, which could be the best team in college football history.  And now the Aggies want to punctuate their season.  They don't have anyone really opting out for this one, and it's a senior-led team.  And they'll be up against a UNC team from a weak ACC conference that has almost all of their best players opting out and getting ready for the NFL draft.  Their top NFL prospect on defense and leading tackler Surratt is out.  They are without 2-time 1,000-yard receiver Brown, plus two 1,000-yard rushers in Carter and Williams.  QB Sam Howell might as well opt out as well with all the weapons he is missing.  It will go about as well for him as it did for Kyle Trask and Florida when they got blasted by Oklahoma earlier this week.  The Aggies are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 games as favorites.  Texas A&M is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 non-conference games.  Take Texas A&M.

6* Kentucky/NC State NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Kentucky -2.5

The Key: We'll side with the SEC over the ACC in this bowl game.  It has been a bad look for the ACC so far with Miami losing to Oklahoma State and Wake Forest losing to Wisconsin.  And we know that Kentucky played a much tougher schedule in the SEC than NC State did in the ACC.  The Wildcats only went 4-6, but the 6 losses came to teams that were .500 or better with the exception of Ole Miss, who was 4-5 and gave Alabama all they could handle.  And 3 losses were to 3 of the best teams in the SEC in Alabama, Florida and Georgia.  NC State is a team the Wildcats can handle.  NC State is a fraudulent 8-3.  They only beat one Power 5 team with a winning record, which was 6-5 Pittsburgh.  They struggled winning their final 3 games over the season over Liberty, Syracuse and Georgia Tech as all 3 games were decided by 10 points or fewer.  Kentucky's strength of schedule was 21st while NC State's was 65th.  The Wildcats are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 bowl games under Mark Stoops with 2 upset victories over Penn State and VA Tech as well as a 1-point loss to Northwestern as a 7-point dog.  This is a senior-led team that will want to post their 3rd straight bowl win and go out as one of the most accomplished classes in program history.  The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games against teams that average 60 or more penalty yards per game.  NC State is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 against good rushing teams that average 4.75 YPC or more.  The Wildcats will have the edge at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball with a big talent advantage in the trenches.  The Wolfpack are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games off a conference home win.  Take Kentucky.

7* Notre Dame/Alabama NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -19.5

The Key: The Notre Dame Fighting Irish keep coming up short in big games.  It happened against in the ACC Championship when they lost 10-34 to Clemson.  And that game was every bit the blowout it seemed as Clemson outgained Notre Dame 541 to 263.  And it will be more of the same here against Alabama.  This may be the best Alabama team we've ever seen as they are outscoring opponents by 30.2 PPG this season.  They definitely have their best offense of the Saban era at 49.7 PPG.  And the Crimson Tide have outscored their opponents 131-47 in their last 4 playoff semifinal games.  They beat Notre Dame 42-14 in their last playoff matchup.  Ian Book isn't good enough to keep up with Mac Jones and company.  The Fighting Irish have allowed over 200 rushing yards in 2 straight games coming in, so the Crimson Tide should be able to run the ball when they need to late to keep margin.  Alabama is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games off an ATS loss.  The Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  Take Alabama.

7* Ball State/San Jose State NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Ball State +10

The Key: The San Jose State Spartans were undervalued all season.  They went 7-0 SU & 6-0-1 ATS this year en route to winning the Mountain West title.  They beat Boise State in the Championship Game.  This team was an underdog in 4 of their 7 games this season and won them all outright.  But now the Spartans are getting respect heading into this bowl game due to those perfect records both SU and ATS.  And asking them to win by 10-plus points to cover this number against Ball State is asking too much.  I don't see the Spartans being too excited to face a MAC opponent in their bowl game as I think they feel they deserved a better bowl game.  They will be content with their season no matter what happens here.  Ball State has been a different team since losing a fluky game to Miami Ohio in the opener.  The Cardinals have gone 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS since while beating the best teams the MAC had to offer in Toledo, Central Michigan, Western Michigan and Buffalo.  Their outright 38-28 win over Buffalo as a 12-point dog showed what they are capable of.  And now the Cardinals will feel disrespected again as big dogs in their bowl game and will be playing with a chip on their shoulder.  No question the Cardinals have the better quarterback here, which is why they will never be out of this game.  Drew Plitt is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country.  He completed 65.8% of his passes for 1,947 yards with 16 TD and only 6 INT this season.  And this Ball State defense got better down the stretch, holding each of its final five opponents to 28 points or fewer.  This is a senior-laden Cardinals team that wants a bowl win desperately.  They haven't been to a bowl since 2013 and the program is 0-7 all-time in bowls.  They have a chance to make history here and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they win this game outright.  Take Ball State.

7* Florida/Oklahoma NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma -6.5

The Key: The Oklahoma Sooners have gone 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall en route to yet another Big 12 title.  And while the Sooners will be almost at full strength for this one, the Florida Gators will not be.  The writing is pretty much on the wall that the Gators don't care about this game after losing to Alabama in the SEC Championship.  They will be without each of their top 4 receivers with 3 opt outs and one due to COVID.  And they will be missing several other key players as well as they prepare for the NFL Draft.  The Sooners should make easy work of the Gators in this game even if Kyle Trask decides to play.  He won't have anyone to throw the ball to.  This Florida defense has allowed an average of 511.5 YPG and 44.5 PPG in back to back losses to LSU and Alabama.  The Sooners should be able to name their score.  Take Oklahoma.

7* Oklahoma State/Miami NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +1

The Key: The wrong team is favored in this matchup.  Miami is getting docked too much from a 62-26 loss to UNC in the season finale that put a bad taste in their mouths heading into the bowl season.  The Hurricanes still finished 8-2 with their other loss to Clemson.  Oklahoma State is getting too much respect for its 42-3 win over Baylor in the season finale.  That was a Baylor team coming off a tough loss to Oklahoma and they just failed to show up.  Remember the Cowboys went 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in their previous 5 games and had been very overrated.  They only beat Kansas State by 2 and Texas Tech by 6 for their 2 wins during that stretch and lost by 28 to Oklahoma.  The news that D'Eriq King announced he is coming back next year at QB for Miami has energized this team.  And they want to make amends for an upset loss to LA Tech in their bowl game last year.  They will be hungry for a win and we should see the best version of Miami because of it, which should be good enough to beat Oklahoma State.  The Hurricanes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  Take Miami.

7* Bills/Patriots MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -7

The Key: The Bills have a lot to play for.  They can be the first team to sweep the season series with the Patriots in 19 years.  And they can grab a stranglehold on the 2nd seed in the AFC with a win here over the Patriots.  They want to keep their momentum going, too.  The Bills have won 7 of their last 8 games with their only loss coming on that hail mary against Arizona.  They are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as well with 5 wins by 10 points or more.  They are scoring 34.8 PPG in their last 6 games and giving up just 18.8 PPG in their last 4 contests.  The Patriots are averaging just 248 YPG in their last 4 games as their offense has held them back all season.  Their best defensive player in CB Stephon Gilmore just went out with a season-ending injury against the Dolphins last week in their 22-12 loss.  They won't have him to match up with Stefon Diggs now, who is having a monster season in his first year in Buffalo.  There's just nothing to like about the Patriots right now, and there's everything to like about the Bills, who may be the best team in the AFC.  Take Buffalo.

6* Rams/Seahawks NFC West *CA$H COW* on Seattle -1

The Key: The Seahawks have a chance to clinch the NFC West with a win Sunday over the Los Angeles Rams.  And it just comes down to me trusting Russell Wilson in this spot a lot more than Jared Goff.  Plus the Seahawks want revenge from a 16-23 road loss to the Rams in their first matchup.  But that was a great spot for the Rams off their bye week.  Now the playing field is leveled in the rematch, and plus the Seahawks are at home now.  While the Rams' defense gets all the headlines, it's the Seahawks defense that is improving as much as any unit in the NFL down the stretch.  It started at halftime of that first meeting with the Rams.  Seattle held Los Angeles to 6 points and 114 yards in the second half.  Since that game, the Seahawks have held 3 of their past 5 opponents to under 300 yards, and Arizona's 21 points in Week 11 are the most allowed by Seattle during this stretch.  The Rams will be without RB Cam Akers, who was really coming on strong for them in being their workhorse before the injury.  He has averaged 102 RYPG in his last 3 games and will be missed.  Pete Carroll is 9-2 ATS in home games when revenging a same-season loss as the coach of the Seahawks.  The Seahawks are 14-6-2 ATS in their last 22 games off an ATS loss.  The Seahawks are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home matchups with the Rams.   Take Seattle.

6* NFL Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Atlanta Falcons +11

The Key: The Chiefs are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  They have won all 6 games but all 6 wins came by 6 points or fewer.  Expect more of the same here against the Falcons.  Atlanta has been very competitive under Raheem Morris.  They have only lost once in their last 7 games by more than 5 points.  The Falcons will be hungry to try and take down the defending Super Bowl champs.  That's a big reason the Chiefs can't cover right now is because they always get the opposing teams' best shot.  And the Chiefs seem to just be going through the motions here late in the season with the top seed in the AFC all but locked up.  Take Atlanta.

6* 49ers/Cardinals NFC West *CA$H COW* on Arizona -5

The Key: The 49ers have gone 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games with all 6 wins coming by 8 points or more.  It will be more of the same here against a hungry Cardinals team that is currently in the last spot in the NFC playoffs.  The Cardinals are playing with a sense of urgency right now and have played some of their best football here down the stretch.  They dominated the Giants 26-7 and outgained them by 231 yards 2 weeks ago.  Last week they won and covered in a 33-26 win over the Eagles and outgained them by 104 yards.  Their offense is thriving right now with 458 YPG in those 2 wins.  This offense is back to being dynamic with Murray running the ball again with 21 rush attempts in his last 2 games.  CJ Beathard will get the start for the injury-plagued 49ers.  Beathard is 0-3 as a starter against the Cardinals and 1-9 lifetime as a starter in the NFL.  He's simply not very good.  The Cardinals are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 matchups with the 49ers.  Take Arizona.

7* NCAAF Bowl Game of the Year on Georgia State -3.5

The Key: Conference USA is 0-3 in bowl games this year through Wednesday and has been outscored by a combined 78 points in those 3 defeats.  Now it's Western Kentucky's turn to get blasted.  The Hilltoppers went 5-6 this year with their 5 wins coming against either FCS opponents or teams that won 3 games or fewer.  The 4 C-USA teams they beat have a combined 8-22 record this year.  WKU had the worst offense in all of C-USA this season at 18.8 PPG.  Appalachian State beat North Texas 56-28 and Georgia Southern beat LA Tech 38-3 in a pair of Sun Belt vs. C-USA matchups already this bowl season.  Georgia State only lost to App State 17-13 and beat Georgia Southern 30-24.  The Panthers average 32.7 PPG this year and will have a huge edge on offense in this matchup.  This should be another Sun Belt over C-USA blowout Saturday.  Take Georgia State.

6* Vikings/Saints NFC *CA$H COW* on Minnesota +7

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Vikings today now that they have failed to cover the spread in 5 straight games.  But the Vikings haven't been playing badly at all like that betting record would suggest.  They have just been favored so many times.  Now they are back in their preferred role of underdog where they have thrived with an upset win over the Packers and a 1-point loss to the Seahawks when they were near touchdown dogs in both of those games.  The Vikings have now won the yardage battle in 7 straight games, meaning they could easily be 7-0 in their last 7 games.  The Saints were just outgained by 126 yards by the Chiefs last week and 55 yards by the Eagles 2 weeks ago, both SU losses.  Drew Brees looked terrible in his first start back against the Chiefs.  That final score was much closer than it should have been as the Chiefs had 34 first downs compared to 15 for the Saints.  I don't know how anyone can expect the Saints to get margin here being without 3 of their best receivers in Thomas, Smith and Harris.  The Vikings won't go away because this is an offense that is averaging 407 YPG in their last 7 games.  The Vikings are 38-14 ATS in their last 52 games following a loss and 14-3 ATS under Zimmer off 2 or more consecutive losses.  Take Minnesota.

7* Marshall/Buffalo NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -5

The Key: The Buffalo Bulls went undefeated in the regular season before falling to Ball State in the MAC Championship.  Their numbers have been dominant all year as they average 47.8 PPG and give up just 23.8 PPG.  And now they take on a team from Conference USA in Marshall.  Conference USA is 0-3 in bowl games this year and has been outscored by a combined 78 points in those 3 defeats.  That's bad news for a Marshall team that has averaged just 6.5 PPG in losing its last 2 games to Rice (20-0) and UAB (13-22).  Marshall went 7 straight quarters without scoring a single point over those 2 games before getting 13 points in garbage time in the 4th quarter against UAB.  Marshall QB Wells has completed just 45% of his passes over the last 2 games with 2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.  Marshall will be without leading rusher RB Knox, leading tackler LB Beckett and top offensive lineman G Ball as they all try and get ready for the NFL.  Buffalo is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games.  Marshall is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games off a loss.  Take Buffalo.

7* Hawaii/Houston NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Hawaii +9.5

The Key: The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors finished 4-4 this season with 4 losses against quality opponents, including an 8-point loss to Boise State.  They also upset Nevada, which just beat AAC member Tulane 38-27 in their bowl game.  And now they take on an AAC team in Houston that is just 3-4 on the season.  The Cougars didn't have any impressive wins this year as their 3 victories came against the bottom of the AAC with Navy, South Florida and Tulane.  And they lost 3 times by 17 points or more as well.  This feels like it will be a one-score game either way.  I like Hawaii QB Cordeiro who has totaled 18 touchdowns passing and rushing in 8 games this year.  He will make enough plays with his arm and feet to keep the Rainbow Warriors in this game for 4 quarters with a possible upset.  Take Hawaii.

7* UFC/BYU Boca Raton Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on BYU -6

The Key: The BYU Cougars (10-1) are the better team in this matchup with the UCF Knights (6-3).  They will be the more hungry team here too with UCF used to playing in much bigger bowls than the Boca Raton Bowl.  And BYU will pretty much have its full compliment of players for this game while UCF has some guys opting out, including leading receiver Marlon Williams who had 71 receptions for 1,039 yards and 10 touchdowns this year. Both teams have explosive offenses with UCF averaging 44.3 PPG and 6.8 YPP while BYU averages 43.0 PPG and 7.7 YPP.  But the difference in this game is defensively.  BYU only gives up 14.6 PPG, 308.9 YPG and 4.8 YPP.  UCF allows 31.4 PPG, 473.7 YPG and 5.9 YPP.   UCF is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games with a total of 70 or higher.  The Knights are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  UCF has losses to Cincinnati, Tulsa and Memphis this season.  BYU's only loss came to Coastal Carolina on only a few days' notice.  And that's an 11-0 Coastal Carolina team.  Take BYU.

7* Steelers/Bengals MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Cincinnati +14.5

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Bengals tonight after losing 5 straight and failing to cover 4 of their last 5.  They are getting docked a lot more for their recent struggles than the Steelers are.  Keep in mind the Steelers have lost 2 in a row to Washington and Buffalo.  Their injuries on defense and their lack of a running game on offense have held them back in recent weeks.  Plus they have been a tired team with the schedule difficulty as they will now be playing their 4th game in 20 days.  Their offense has been held to 19 points or fewer in 3 straight.  Cincinnati's defense has given up 20 points or fewer in 3 of its last 4.  And the only exception was the 30 points they gave up to Dallas which was aided by 3 fumbles early in the game.  The Cowboys only managed 272 yards against them.  This is only the 2nd time all season that the Steelers have bene a double-digit favorite.  They nearly lost outright to the Cowboys in their largest favorite role of -14.  This is only the 2nd time all season that the Bengals have been a double-digit underdog.  Oddsmakers know that the public wants nothing to do with the Bengals right now so they are forced to set this number higher than it should be.  The Steelers are now 0-6 ATS in their last 6 December games.  Take Cincinnati.

6* Seahawks/Washington NFC *CA$H COW* on Seattle -6.5

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Seahawks as less than a TD favorite against the Washington Football Team Sunday.  This isn't the same Washington team that pulled 3 straight upsets over the Cowboys, Steelers and 49ers.  They are now without starting QB Alex Smith, and it's a huge downgrade to third-stringer Dwayne Haskins as we saw early in the season when he got the starting nod.  They are also without their best player on offense in RB Antonio Gibson.  While Washington does have a good defense and can limit Seattle, it's too much of a burden on them here.  Washington isn't going to be able to move the ball and score consistently against an improving Seattle defense that has allowed 23 or fewer points in 5 straight games, including 17 or less in 3 straight.  This simply has blowout written all over it with the injuries to Washington on offense.  The road team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  Take Seattle.

6* Jaguars/Ravens AFC *CA$H COW* on Jacksonville +13

The Key: Gardner Minshew is Jacksonville's best quarterback and will be returning to start for them this week.  The Jaguars have still gone 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games and have been very competitive.  Now Minshew should give them a spark at the QB position.  The Ravens have to be tired playing their 4th game in 19 days here.  And they are coming off a 47-42 shootout victory over the Browns on Monday Night Football.  It's a letdown spot and they are fatigued.  Their defense gave up 493 yards to the Browns, so the back door is going to be open for the Jaguars if we need it against this Ravens defense.  The Jaguars have topped 350 total yards in 3 consecutive games coming in and can move the ball and score points.  Bets on road dogs or PK who are on an 8-plus game losing streak against an opponent that's off 2 or more consecutive wins are 21-3 ATS since 1983.  Take Jacksonville.

7* 49ers/Cowboys NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas +3.5

The Key: The Cowboys have covered 3 of their last 5 coming in after a 30-7 win at Cincinnati last week.  This is a great price on the Cowboys at home against a 49ers team that doesn't have anything to play for and has been hurt by injuries worse than any other team in the NFL.  That's a big reason why the 49ers are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games coming in.  The Cowboys are still very much alive in the NFC East race and should be the hungrier team.  Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games as a home underdog.  Take Dallas.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Stanford +7

The Key: The Stanford Cardinal have won 3 straight and have all the momentum right now going into this final game of the season.  That includes their upset win over Washington as a double-digit underdog.  And now they are catching 7 points against a UCLA team that is 3-3 and coming off a 3rd heartbreaking loss this season.  This one was a 38-43 loss to USC in which they allowed a TD with 16 seconds left.  They were in control of the game the whole way, too.  I don't expect this young UCLA team to be able to handle that loss very well, and they likely won't even show up this week against Stanford.  The Cardinal are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 matchups with UCLA, including 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 matchups at UCLA.  Take Stanford.

6* Ole Miss/LSU SEC *CA$H COW* on Ole Miss -2.5

The Key: LSU is coming off a shocking 37-34 win over Florida as more than 3-touchdown underdog.  The Gators were clearly looking ahead to their SEC Championship Game against Alabama this week.  And that win has LSU getting too much respect from the books this week.  Ole Miss is in the better situation.  The Rebels haven't played in 3 weeks and will be fresh.  They have won 3 in a row coming in and also gave Alabama their stiffest test of the season to flash their potential.  LSU just beat Florida and won't care nearly as much about beating Ole Miss this week because of it.  The situation favors the Rebels.  The Tigers are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games off an upset win as a road dog.  Take Ole Miss.

6* Oklahoma/Iowa State Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Iowa State +6

The Key: The Iowa State Cyclones have saved their best football for last.  They are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall while outscoring their last 5 opponents by a total of 121 points and by an average of 24.2 PPG.  That's why they are getting so much hype in the college football playoff rankings, and deservedly so.  But now they are getting disrespected once again as 6-point dogs to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game.  They upset Oklahoma as 7.5-point home dogs, 37-30 in their first matchup this year.  The Cyclones are now 5-0 ATS in their last 5 matchups with Oklahoma with an average cover of 16 PPG.  They haven't lost any of the last 5 matchups by more than 10 points, so Matt Campbell clearly has this Oklahoma team figured out.  And it's a Sooners team coming off one of their worst performances of the season.  They managed just 269 total yards in a 27-14 win over Baylor as a 23-point favorite.  They were actually outgained by the awful Bears in that contest.  Iowa State is 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 games as an underdog.  The Cyclones are 11-1 ATS under Campbell against good passing teams that average 8.5 or more yards per attempt.  The Sooners are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as favorites.  Take Iowa State.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Rutgers +7

The Key: Nebraska is just 2-5 and should not be favored this heavily over Rutgers in the season finale for both teams.  The Huskers are coming off an upset loss to Minnesota as 8-point favorites.  Rutgers has the momentum, coming off an upset win over Maryland last time out.  They also upset Purdue two games ago as a double-digit dog.  They have been competitive in most their games this year, too.  The Scarlet Knights now have a chance to win four Big Ten games for the first time since joining the conference in 2014.  "This Nebraska game is everything," head coach Greg Schiano said. "We're shooting for something that has not been done at Rutgers.  ANd, to do it in a situation where you play nine straight.  And, to do it in a situation where you didn't have a non-conference to work out any of the kings.  I think everybody in our program has a chance to do something special."  It's clear that the Scarlet Knights want this game more than Nebraska does.  Bets against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who have lost 3 of their last 4 games, in conference games are 70-38 ATS over the last 5 years.  The Huskers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as favorites.  The Scarlet Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as dogs.  Take Rutgers.

7* Chargers/Raiders AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles +3.5

The Key: The Los Angeles Chargers are the better team than the Las Vegas Raiders despite what their records say.  The Chargers are 4-9 this season but outgaining their opponents by nearly 50 YPG, while the Raiders are 7-6 despite getting outgained by nearly 15 YPG.  The Raiders have a soft defense that allows 30.1 PPG on the season and 37.5 PPG over their last 4 contests.  And that defense isn't getting any better with all of their injuries right now, most notably to DE Ferrell and S Abram, who are among at least 4 starters that are out for this game.  The Chargers want to end the Raiders' playoff hopes here.  That would be sweet revenge for a 26-31 loss to the Raiders in their 1st matchup this year in which the Chargers had their game-winning TD overturned on replay on the final play of the game.  The Chargers outgained the Raiders by 120 yards in that contest and had a 26-16 edge in first downs.  Bets against favorites like the Raiders after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 52-19 ATS over the last 5 years.  The Raiders committed 3 turnovers in their 27-44 loss to the Colts on Sunday and now have 10 turnovers in their last 3 games.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Ravens/Browns MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland +3

The Key: The Cleveland Browns are out to prove that they can beat the Baltimore Ravens.  They want revenge from that 6-38 loss in Week 1 in which things spiraled out of control after a botched fake punt early and 3 turnovers.  The Browns have been a completely different team since.  They have gone 9-2 in their last 11 games overall and now find themselves just one game out of 1st place in the AFC North.  They are the much fresher, healthier team right now than the Ravens as well.  Baltimore will be playing its 3rd game in 12 days due to COVID complications.  They had just 5 days to get ready for the Browns after playing the Cowboys on Tuesday.  Cleveland has had 7 days to get ready for Baltimore.  The Browns are 5-1 SU at home this year.  Baker Mayfield is playing his best football and hasn't thrown an interception since October 25, a span of almost 6 games.  He has 11 TD and zero interceptions since his last pick.  And with Nick Chubb back healthy, the Browns have been monsters on the ground.  They have rushed for 100-plus yards in 5 straight games and an average of 173.3 RYPG in their last 4.  The Ravens have given up 111 or more rushing yards in 4 of their last 5.  The Browns have been good against the run all season, yielding only 104 RYPG.  Take Cleveland.

7* NFC Game of the Year on Washington +3

The Key: Washington has won 3 straight including upset road wins over the Cowboys and 49ers to get into a tie with the Giants for 1st place in the NFC East.  But they lost both matchups with the Giants so they are essentially a game behind.  They need wins like blood here down the stretch.  The 49ers just lost to the Bills last week to essentially eliminate them from the playoffs.  They are now 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  I don't like their mindset right now, and there's no way they should be favored over Washington this week.  Washington has one of the best defenses in the NFL in yielding only 310.9 YPG.  And Alex Smith has provided some stability to their offense.  He led them back from a 14-0 deficit against the Steelers last week to pull the 23-17 upset.  Washington hasn't lost any of its last 7 games by more than 3 points, making for a 7-0 angle back them here.   The 49ers are 9-22-1 ATS in their last 32 games as favorites.  Take Washington.

6* Broncos/Panthers Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Carolina -3.5

The Key: The situation favors the Carolina Panthers today.  They return from their bye week to face a banged up Broncos team that will be playing for a 9th consecutive week after having an early bye in Week 5.  The Broncos are coming off a tough 16-22 loss to the Chiefs in a game that the Chiefs were flat.  They were more dominant than the score showed as they had 447 total yards against the Broncos.  The Panthers are getting healthier coming off their bye and will have several players available that were in COVID protocol.  The Broncos are getting outscored by 7.9 PPG on the season.  Take Carolina.

6* Chiefs/Dolphins AFC *CA$H COW* on Miami +7

The Key: The Miami Dolphins have gone 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  Their defense is one of the best in the league and has what it takes to slow down Patrick Mahomes.  They face a Chiefs team that is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall with 4 straight wins by 6 points or fewer.  The Chiefs shouldn't be laying 7 points on the road here to Miami.  The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS at home this year.  The Chiefs are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games after gaining an average of 450 YPG or more in their last 3 games coming in.  Take Miami.

6* Virginia/VA Tech ACC *CA$H COW* on Virginia +3.5

The Key: The Virginia Cavaliers are clearly trying to make the most of this season.  They have won 4 straight and are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  A win here Saturday over rival Virginia Tech would assure that they finish the season with a winning record.  They have wins over UNC, Louisville and Boston College during this stretch and only a 5-point loss at Miami.  Virginia Tech sits at 4-6 and is going the other direction.  The Hokies are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.  They are coming off two straight blowout losses to Pitt by 33 and Clemson by 35.  They haven’t shown much fight in either game and I don’t see them showing up today, either.  The Hokies are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games against at team that wins 51% to 60% of their games.  The Cavaliers are 11-1-2 ATS int heir last 14 games after scoring more than 40 points in their last game.  Take Virginia.

7* USC/UCLA Pac-12 *HEAVY HITTER* on UCLA +3.5

The Key: The UCLA Bruins are very close to being 5-0 this year.  They lost by 6 to Colorado and by 3 to Oregon, both on the road.  And they have wins over Cal by 24, Arizona by 17 and Arizona State by 7.  They are battle tested and ready to beat a team like USC.  The Trojans are 4-0 but could easily be 2-2.  They only beat Arizona State by 1 and Arizona by 4, the same two teams that UCLA beat by a combined 24 points.  The Bruins actually have the better stats too as they are outgaining teams by 0.8 yards per play while USC is outgaining teams by 0.5 yards per play.  The Trojans have also benefitted from being +6 in turnovers and forcing a whopping 12 of them in four games.  The Trojans are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games as road favorites.  USC is 16-35-2 ATS in its last 53 road games overall.  The Bruins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall . The home team is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 matchups.  Take UCLA.

6* Houston/Memphis AAC *CA$H COW* on Memphis +5.5

The Key: The Houston Cougars have not played a game in a month and will be rusty here.  They should not be 5.5-point road favorites over the Memphis Tigers.  It has been a down season for Memphis, but they are still 6-3 this year and want to finish the season strong.  Houston is 3-3 with losses to the three best teams they’ve faced all by 17 points or more.  Their 3 wins have come against USF, Navy and Tulane.  Memphis is 4-0 SU in its last 4 matchups with Houston and hasn’t lost to the Cougars by more than 4 points in any of the last 6 matchups.  The Tigers are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 home games against good offensive teams that score 31 PPG or more.  Dana Holgorsen is 6-18 ATS as a head coach coming off a bye week.  The Cougars are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games off a win by more than 20 points.  The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as home dogs.  Take Memphis.

7* Nevada/SJSU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Nevada +1.5

The Key: Nevada has been the best team in the Mountain West this year in my opinion.  I’ve cashed on them several times already, and I’ll take them again tonight as they should not be dogs to San Jose State.  The Wolf Pack are outgaining their opponents by 81.0 YPG this year while San Jose State is outgaining opponents by 72.0 YPG.  And I like the situation for Nevada better here.  The Wolf Pack get to stay in Nevada as this game will be played at Sam Boyd Stadium.  The Spartans had to fly back from Hawaii over the weekend and now have to travel to Nevada too on this short week.  The Wolf Pack will be the fresher, more prepared team for this one.  Nevada is 10-1 SU in the last 11 matchups.  The Wolf Pack are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as underdogs.  Take Nevada.

7* Pittsburgh/Georgia Tech ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Georgia Tech +7

The Key: Pitt just hasn’t been able to get margin on Georgia Tech in recent matchups.  Their largest win in the last 7 matchups came by 10 points last year against a very bad Georgia Tech team that was in the first season under Geoff Collins trying to switch from the triple-option to a pro style offense.  The previous largest win for Pitt was by 5 points in those 7 matchups.  The Yellow Jackets have improved tremendously this year even though they are just 3-6 on the season.  They have been competitive in a lot more games and have now outgained their last two opponents in Duke by 141 yards and NC State by 15 yards coming into this game.  They face a Pitt team still reeling from a 17-52 loss to Clemson.  And they will give the Panthers a run for their money tonight.  The Panthers just had DE Rashad Weaver and his 7.5 sacks opt out for the rest of the year, which will make life easier on this Georgia Tech offense.  Take Georgia Tech.

7* Washington/Pittsburgh MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +7

The Key: Washington is fresh and ready to go after crushing Dallas 41-16 on Thanksgiving Day last Thursday.  They are poised to make a run at the NFC East title.  They have gone 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games while not losing once by more than 3 points.  Their defense is absolutely balling, and Alex Smith is making the offense efficient without making many mistakes.  That defense and not turning the ball over gives Washington a chance to beat anyone, even the unbeaten 11-0 Pittsburgh Steelers.  This may be the worst situation for any team in the NFL.  The Steelers are on only 4 days’ rest after being forced to play the Ravens on Wednesday.  They have to face a Washington team on extra rest, and the injuries and COVID problems are mounting up for Pittsburgh.  They lost LB Bud Dupree against the Ravens and fellow LB Devin Bush was already out.  It’s unknown if DE Tuitt, C Pouncey or RB Conner will be back in time for Monday due to COVID.  And it’s a letdown spot off the big win over the Ravens and with another huge game against the Bills on deck next week.  This just feels like the game the Steelers lose.  But either way getting 7 points with Washington is too much here.  Take Washington.

6* Patriots/Chargers AFC *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles -1.5

The Key: The Patriots may have the coaching advantage here with Belichick over Lynn, and it’s not really even close.  But that is being factored into this spread too much.  The fact of the matter is the Chargers are the better team everywhere and not even Lynn can mess this one up.  The Patriots never should have beaten the Cardinals last week as they were held to 179 total yards including 69 passing yards.  Cam Newton is broken and banged up right now and is questionable to start Sunday.  The Chargers have an elite offense behind Justin Herbert who has led their offense to 25.2 PPG and 397.8 YPG.  And their defense is only allowing 342.9 YPG, so they are outgaining their opponents by roughly 55 YPG this year.  They are much better than their 3-8 record would indicate and that record will have the Chargers showing a lot of value down the stretch here.  The Patriots are getting outgained by 5 YPG on the season and are about where they should be at 5-6.  Lynn is coaching for his job here, and a win over Belichick and the Patriots would got a long way.  The Patriots are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games off an ATS win.  New England is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games off a SU win.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 matchups.  Take Los Angeles.

7* NFC West Game of the Year on Arizona Cardinals +3

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals have now failed to cover the spread in each of their last 4 games.  This line has moved too much because of it, and now the price is right to back the Cardinals.  The Cardinals were favored in this game before the games were played last week.  But now they are 3-point home dogs.  And the only thing that happened was the Rams getting upset as nearly 7-point favorites by the 49ers and the Cardinals getting upset as 1-point favorites against the Patriots.  But the Cardinals should have beaten the Patriots as they lost 17-20 despite holding New England to 179 yards and outgaining them by 119 yards.  The Rams were outgained by 37 yards by the 49ers and turned the ball over 4 times.  They deserved to lose.  Arizona needs this game more as it is one game behind the Rams in the standings.  And I think we get one of the best efforts of the season from the Cardinals here.  They have played 5 home games this year and haven’t lost once by more than 3 points.  Bets on underdogs or PK who are coming off an upset loss as a road favorite that win 51%-60% of their games in the 2nd half of the season are 30-8 ATS since 1983.  Take Arizona.

6* SJSU/Hawaii Mountain West *CA$H COW* on San Jose State -1.5

The Key: Brent Brennan deserves some love for what he is doing with this San Jose State program.  He is in his 4th season here.  After going 5-7 last year with 3 losses by 3 points or less, the Spartans came out motivated in 2020 to do big things and make a bowl.  They have opened 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS this season.  They beat two very good teams by double-digits with their 17-6 win over Air Force and their 28-17 road win at San Jose State.  Their defense is balling, yielding just 15.3 PPG and 349.3 YPG this year.  Hawaii is just a mediocre team in the Mountain West after losing head coach Nick Rolovich to Washington State.  Their defense is not good, yielding 29.7 PPG this year.  And that is going to be the difference in this game is SJSU will get key stops while Hawaii will not.  The Spartans have had the last 2 weeks off and will be ready to go Saturday night.  The Warriors are coming off 3 straight huge games against SDSU, Boise and Nevada the last 3 weeks and will be playing for a 7th consecutive week.  I have to think they are starting to get tired after that gauntlet.  The Spartans want revenge from 4 straight losses in this series, including losses by 2 and 3 points the last 2 years.  They lost in OT 2 years ago and by just 2 points last year.  The Spartans are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games as road favorites.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 matchups.  The Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 trips to Hawaii.  Take San Jose State.

7* Big Ten Game of the Year on Illinois +13.5

The Key: Illinois QB Brandon Peters played against Nebraska in their last game for the first time since the opener because of COVID-19 issues.  He threw for 205 yards and a touchdown to improve to 7-5 in his career in games he’s able to complete.  The Fighting Illini tried four others at QB in his absence and it did not go well.  Peters makers all the difference for this team.  He led the Illini to a 41-23 win at Nebraska two weeks ago with 490 yards of total offense.  And now the Fighting Illini have had 2 weeks to get ready to face rival Iowa.  The Hawkeyes are starting to get too much respect from the books now as they have won 4 straight since an 0-2 start.  They barely held on to beat that same Nebraska team 26-20 as 12-point home favorites last week.  And now they are in their largest favorite role of the season here as 13.5-point favorites over Illinois.  It’s too much for an Iowa team that isn’t getting very good play at all from first-time starter Spencer Petras.  Iowa only beat Illinois 19-10 as 15-point home favorites last year.  The Illini rushed for 192 yards in that game, and they are 2nd in the Big Ten with 222.4 RYPG this season.  Illinois is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 conference games.  The Illini are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games off a win.  Take Illinois.

7* Louisiana/Appalachian State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Louisiana +3

The Key: Louisiana is revenge-minded Friday night.  The Rajin’ Cajuns have lost each of their last 7 matchups with Appalachian State, including 4 losses over the last 2 seasons while ending with losses in the Sun Belt Title game.  Louisiana played well enough to win in the rematch last year as they had 513 yards compared to 416 for App State, but lost 38-45.  But now App State has already been eliminated from Sun Belt title contention with their earlier loss to Coastal Carolina, so they won’t be as hungry here as they’d normally be.  I was impressed with Louisiana hanging 70 points on rival Louisiana-Monroe last week, clearly not looking ahead to this game.  And they had the previous week off due to Covid-19 concerns.  So they are still going to be very fresh here.  App State will be playing for a 7th consecutive week here.  Louisiana is 5-0 SU on the road this year with an outright upset of Iowa State, which is ranked 9th in the playoff rankings.  The Rajin’ Cajuns are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 road games against excellent rushing teams that average 230 or more RYPG.  The Mountaineers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Take Louisiana.

7* Ravens/Steelers AFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh -10

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens are missing too many key pieces to even be competitive today against the Pittsburgh Steelers.  They are without the likes of Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Pernell McPhee, Mark Ingram, JK Dobbins, Brandon Williams, Nike Boyle, Ronnie Stanley and Calais Campbell.  And they are without several others that aren’t big names like those.  They are having to pull up several players from the practices squad just to be able to play in this game.  And they have really pissed off their rivals here in the Steelers, who won’t have any problem pouring it on the Ravens.  They will be trying to sweep the season series for just the 2nd time in 12 years here in 2020 and will relish the opportunity.  And the Steelers have beaten the Bengals and Jaguars by a combined 50 points the last 2 weeks so they have shown the ability to run it up.  The Steelers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 against AFC opponents.  Pittsburgh is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games as a home favorite.  The Steelers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  The Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* AFC South Game of the Year on Tennessee Titans +3

The Key: The Tennessee Titans are looking to avenge their 17-34 loss to the Colts just a two weeks ago.  They led that game 17-13 before a shanked punt and a blocked punt return TD directly led to 14 points for the Colts on special teams mistakes.  That was really a 3-point game that turned into a 17-point loss and looks worse than it was.  But the Titans rebounded with a dominant 30-24 win in Baltimore last week in which they gained 423 yards and held the Ravens to just 306 yards.  Derrick Henry became the league’s first 1,000-yard rusher last week, and his job just got a lot easier here with the Colts missing arguably their most important player on defense in DeForest Buckner due to Covid-19.  In fact several players are out for the Colts due to Covid-19, including starting RB Jonathan Taylor.  The Titans are getting healthy at the right time and will be in much better shape to beat the Colts than they were 2 weeks ago.  Philip Rivers is nursing a toe injury, and he’ll be without starting C Ryan Kelly.  NFL teams that won last week after trailing by 11-plus at halftime are 26-38-1 SU & 19-45-1 ATS in their last 65 tries.  The Colts came back from 14 down to beat the Packers last week and will be fatigued.  They also benefited from 4 turnovers by the Packers, which is uncharacteristic for Aaron Rodgers and company.  The Titans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record.  Take Tennessee.

6* Nevada/Hawaii Mountain West *BAILOUT* on Nevada -7

The Key: I’ve backed Nevada 4 times already this season and am 4-0 with them.  They delivered against San Diego State last week, and they’ll deliver again this week against Hawaii.  They’ll be hungry to avenge a fluky 54-3 upset loss to Hawaii last year.  And these teams have already played the same 3 teams this year that shows Nevada is by far the superior team.  Nevada is 3-0 against Wyoming, New Mexico and San Diego State and has outscored them by a total of 15 points.  Hawaii is 1-2 against those same 3 teams and has been outscored by 42 points total.  Hawaii hasn’t had much of a home-field advantage at all in going 11-27-1 ATS in its last 39 home games.  Take Nevada.

6* LSU/Texas A&M SEC *CA$H COW* on Texas A&M -14

The Key: The Texas A&M Aggies have a legit shot to make the 4-team playoff if they win out.  They are 5-1 this year with their only loss on the road to Alabama.  They have a win over Florida, a fellow playoff contender.  And they are going to need some style points the rest the way.  That’s why I’m not worried about laying 14 points here with the Aggies Saturday against LSU.  The Aggies have had the last 2 weeks off so they’ll be fresh and ready.  LSU played last week and was fortunate to beat Arkansas 27-24.  They ran 91 plays for only 419 yards against Arkansas, an average of just 4.6 YPP.  Arkansas ran just 53 plays for 443 yards against LSU, an average of 8.4 YPP.  The Tigers are now giving up 472.7 YPG and 7.3 YPP defensively this year.  Texas A&M only allows 338.2 YPG and 5.6 YPP defensively.  That’s where the difference lies between these two teams.  Plus Texas A&M has the better offense at 6.7 YPP compared to 5.9 YPP for LSU.  And Texas A&M has played the tougher schedule.  The Aggies are 7-0 ATS after outrushing their last opponents by 150 or more yards over the last 3 years.  Take Texas A&M.