Football Archive | |||||||
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
09-23-18 | Broncos v. Ravens -5 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 49 m | Show | |
6* Broncos/Ravens AFC *CA$H COW* on Baltimore -5 The Key: The Ravens are in a supreme spot here. They have an extra 3 days of rest and preparation after losing to the Bengals on the road last Thursday. Now they return home fresh and ready to go. They beat the Bills 47-3 at home in Week 1 and have a big home-field advantage. The Broncos will be hitting the road for the first time after narrow home wins over the Raiders and Seahawks by a combined 4 points. I believe the Broncos to be overvalued off their 2-0 start. The Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games off a loss. The Broncos are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home meetings with Denver. Take Baltimore. |
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09-22-18 | TCU v. Texas +3.5 | 16-31 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
6* TCU/Texas Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Texas +3.5 The Key: The Texas Longhorns are ready to take the next step this season. They beat USC 37-14 at home last week and now they host TCU for their Big 12 opener looking to make a statement. They get the Horned Frogs at a great time, too. TCU will still be licking its wounds from a tough loss to Ohio State last week. I love backing Texas head coach Tom Herman in the underdog role. He has gone 21-1 ATS as an underdog lifetime as a head coach or an assistant coach in his 4 different stops. Take Texas. |
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09-22-18 | Kansas v. Baylor -7.5 | 7-26 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
6* Kansas/Baylor Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Baylor -7.5 The Key: I love the price we are getting with the Baylor Bears at home today against the Kansas Jayhawks. Baylor is coming off an upset home loss to Duke, while Kansas is coming off back-to-back upset wins over Central Michigan and Rutgers. That’s why we are getting the Bears so cheap today. Baylor went into Kansas and won 38-9 last year. And the Bears are much better this season than they were a year ago. Baylor is now 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings, winning by 29, 42, 59, 46, 45 and 27 points, respectively. Expect another blowout win in the Bears’ favor here Saturday. Take Baylor. |
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09-22-18 | Clemson -16 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 49-21 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
7* ACC Game of the Month on Clemson -16 The Key: The Clemson Tigers aren’t laying enough points to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. That’s largely due to the fact that they are 0-3 ATS on the season, costing bettors money up to this point. But I think the price is right to back them now here in a game they should win by 3 touchdowns and finally cash in a winning ticket. They have owned Georgia Tech in recent seasons, holding them to a combined 17 points in the last 2 meetings. They have figured out how to stop the triple-option, and they are coming off a dominant 38-7 win over Georgia Southern and their triple-option last week, giving them great preparation for this game Saturday. The Tigers have held the Yellow Jackets to just 121 yards per game and 2.9 yards per rush on the ground in their last 3 meetings with them. Georgia Tech lost 1,000-yard rusher KirVonte Benson a few weeks back against USF, and it’s no wonder they are coming off back-to-back losses as they fell to Pitt last week as well. This should be somewhere in the neighborhood of a 31-7 victory Saturday, if not worse. Take Clemson. |
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09-22-18 | Akron v. Iowa State -20 | 13-26 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 48 m | Show | |
6* Saturday NCAAF *BLOWOUT* on Iowa State -20 The Key: Akron is coming off a huge upset win over Northwestern as 21-point underdogs last week. They looked left for dead trailing 21-3 at halftime. But then the craziness happened. The Zips got 3 defensive touchdowns in the 2nd half and won 39-34. Now they’re in a big letdown spot here against a hungry Iowa State team that is looking for its first win. The Cyclones have played a brutal early schedule losing on the road at Iowa and at home to Oklahoma as dogs. They will get right here against an Akron team they beat 41-14 on the road last season. The Cyclones should have no problem winning this game by 3 touchdowns or more. Iowa State is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 home games. The Cyclones are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. MAC opponents. Akron is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 games off an upset win as a double-digit underdog. The Zips are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games off a road win. Take Iowa State. |
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09-22-18 | Notre Dame v. Wake Forest +7 | 56-27 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 47 m | Show | |
6* Notre Dame/Wake Forest *CA$H COW* on Wake Forest +7 The Key: Notre Dame is probably the most overrated team in the country. The Fighting Irish are 3-0 but could easily be 0-3. All 3 of their victories have come by 8 points or less, including a 24-16 win over Ball State as 33.5-point favorites and a 22-17 win over Vanderbilt as 13.5-point favorites. Now the Fighting Irish hit the road for the first time this season against a pesky Wake Forest team that nearly beat Boston College at home last time out, losing 34-41. And the Demon Deacons have had a couple extra days to prepare for Notre Dame after playing BC last Thursday. Wake hung tough in a 37-48 loss at Notre Dame as 14.5-point underdogs last season. They managed 587 total yards against the Notre Dame defense in the loss. The Demon Deacons once again have an explosive offense this season that is averaging 36 PPG and 547 YPG on the year. The Demon Deacons are 11-3 ATS as underdogs over the last 3 seasons. The Fighting Irish are 1-8 ATS when playing against a team that wins 60% to 75% of their games over the last 3 years. They are also 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record overall. Take Wake Forest. |
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09-21-18 | Florida Atlantic +13.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 36-56 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
7* FAU/UCF ESPN Friday Night Lights on Florida Atlantic +13.5 The Key: I think UCF is overvalued due to having not lost a game since 2016. And I think losing their game last week due to weather is a bad thing for them. FAU is a team that returned 16 starters this year including 10 on defense. The Owls have been tested as they’ve already played Oklahoma and Air Force. They have had this game circled on their calendars and should put forth a home run effort. UCF has not been tested yet playing Upon and South Carolina State. The UConn put up 486 total yards on this UCF defense. The Owls should have plenty of success with their running game, which is elite. The Knights have allowed 198 rushing yards per game in their two games against awful competition. The Owls are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. Take Florida Atlantic. |
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09-20-18 | Jets v. Browns -3 | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
7* Jets/Browns AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland -3 The Key: The Browns are just 1-32-1 in all games over the past 3 seasons. However, I believe they are favored for a reason here. They took the Steelers to overtime and tied them. They should have beaten the Saints last week in a 21-18 loss in which they lost 8 points by the kicker, who was subsequently cut. This Browns defense is loaded. Greg Williams loves to blitz, and blitzing rookie quarterbacks is a winning strategy in the NFL. This will be Sam Darnold’s stiffest test yet after facing weak Lions and Dolphins defenses in his first 2 games. The Browns have forced 8 turnovers thus far and will force a few more here against Darnold and company. Cleveland’s offense takes care of the football behind Tyrod Taylor. That will be the difference in this game. Take Cleveland. |
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09-16-18 | Dolphins v. Jets -2.5 | Top | 20-12 | Loss | -115 | 36 h 39 m | Show |
7* AFC East Game of the Month on New York Jets -2.5 The Key: I’m a believer in the Jets. They beat the Lions 48-17 in Week 1 in a dominant defensive effort, an impressive debut of Sam Darnold, and a solid rushing game that produced 169 yards. Now the Jets head home for their first home game this season, and the fans will be packing the stands in Week 2 to see their rookie QB first-hand. And the Jets are only 2.5-point favorites in this matchup with the Dolphins, who I believe to be one of the worst teams in the NFL. And the Dolphins were gassed in the 4th quarter of that 7-hour marathon against the Titans that was continually delayed by lightning last week. They won 27-20, but now they hit the road for the first time. The Jets are 6-0 ATS in home games when playing with 6 or less days’ rest over the last 2 seasons. The Jets are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games. The Dolphins are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 road games. Take New York. |
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09-16-18 | Chiefs +5.5 v. Steelers | 42-37 | Win | 100 | 35 h 28 m | Show | |
6* Chiefs/Steelers AFC *CA$H COW* on Kansas City +5.5 The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers are very beatable this season, especially early on. That was evident last week when the Browns took them to overtime in a tie. The Steelers turned the ball over 6 times. They clearly miss Le’Veon Bell and his leadership and passing skills out of the backfield. Big Ben suffered an elbow injury and didn’t practice until late in the week. The defense was awful last year once Ryan Shazier went out and they didn’t replace him this offseason. CB Joe Haden is doubtful this week, and you don’t want to be without a starting corner when going up against this explosive Chiefs offense. Guard David DeCastro is doubtful as well. The Chiefs rolled the Chargers 38-28 and got explosive play after explosive play from Tyreke Hill and company. The Chiefs have as many weapons as any team in the NFL. The Chiefs are 9-1 ATS after allowing 400 or more yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Kansas City is 8-0 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last 3 years. Take Kansas City. |
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09-16-18 | Browns v. Saints -9 | 18-21 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 28 m | Show | |
6* Browns/Saints Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on New Orleans -9 The Key: The New Orleans Saints will be hungry to bounce back with a blowout victory over the Cleveland Browns today following their upset loss to the Tampa Bay Bucs in Week 1. This is a Cleveland defense that gave up 472 total yards to the Steelers last week. They were +5 in turnover differential and still could only get a tie out of it. And they were lucky to even get that as they trailed 21-7 in the 4th quarter as their offense just couldn’t get going. Then Josh Gordon had a late TD catch to tie. But now Gordon has been ruled out for this game and the Browns are looking to trade him. They have some the worst weapons in the NFL, and there’s no way Tyrod Taylor and company can hang with the Saints in this one. And they’re missing their leader on defense in LB Christian Kirksey, who is the QB of their D. The Browns are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games overall. Cleveland is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 vs. a team with a losing record. The Browns are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC opponents. The Browns are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games on field turf. Take New Orleans. |
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09-15-18 | Ohio State v. TCU +14 | Top | 40-28 | Win | 100 | 19 h 30 m | Show |
7* Ohio State/TCU Top 25 *HEAVY HITTER* on TCU +14 The Key: TCU is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog under Gary Patterson. And now Patterson is catching two touchdowns against Ohio State Saturday. The Horned Frogs are licking their chops at the opportunity to face the Buckeyes. Remember, a few years back Ohio State was the team that got into the four-team playoff to knock TCU out of it even though the Horned Frogs deserved to be in. Patterson and company have not forgotten. The Horned Frogs play too good defensively to not be competitive here. And their offense is better than it’s getting credit for with Shawn Robinson at QB. Even though this is technically a neutral field, it’s not far from TCU’s campus in Arlington and it will be a TCU-heavy crowd. Take TCU. |
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09-15-18 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State +19 | 37-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
6* Oklahoma/Iowa State Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Iowa State +19 The Key: Oklahoma is the flavor of the week right now with its 63-14 win over Florida Atlantic and 49-21 win over UCLA to open the season. Iowa State has only played one game, and it was an ugly 3-13 loss at Iowa. I think we’re getting a few too many points here with the Cyclones at home. They are different animal on their home field and proved that they once again have a great defense by limiting Iowa to just 271 total yards. They will be able to limit Oklahoma this week. The Cyclones pulled the 38-31 upset in Oklahoma as 30-point underdogs last season. They also only lost 24-34 at home to Oklahoma in 2016 as 21-point dogs. This game will be closer than expected. The Cyclones are 11-2 ATS in Saturday games over the last 2 seasons. The Cyclones are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games played on a grass field. The Cyclones are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. The Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Sooners are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. Take Iowa State. |
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09-15-18 | Georgia Southern +33 v. Clemson | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
6* Saturday NCAAF Dog of the Day on Georgia Southern +33 The Key: I expect Clemson to be sleep-walking through this game Saturday morning. They are coming off a huge 28-26 win at Texas A&M, and they have their ACC opener against Georgia Tech on deck next week. They just want to get out of here with a win against Georgia Southern. I think Georgia Southern will play this game closer than expected. They beat South Carolina State 37-6 as 28.5-point favorites and UMass 34-13 as 1.5-point favorites. They have 18 starters back from last year and have been notorious for giving Power 5 programs fits through the years with their triple option. Georgia Southern lost in OT to Georgia in 2015, had a one-point road loss to NC State in 2014, and lost by only 4 points at Georgia Tech in 2014. They also stunned Florida in Gainesville in 2013. The Eagles are averaging 326 rushing yards per game this season and their triple-option will give Clemson a hard time here. Take Georgia Southern. |
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09-13-18 | Ravens +1 v. Bengals | Top | 23-34 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
7* Ravens/Bengals AFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Baltimore +1 The Key: The Baltimore Ravens are now 6-0 this season when you count the preseason. They are not only winning, they are dominating. They have won those 6 games by an average of nearly 17 points per game, including their 47-3 drubbing of the Bills last week. They lost to Cincinnati in their season finale last year with a trip to the playoffs on the line. It’s revenge time here for the Ravens, who are clearly the better team and simply just have to win this game to cover. Take Baltimore. |
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09-10-18 | Rams -5.5 v. Raiders | Top | 33-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
7* Rams/Raiders MNF *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles -5.5 The Key: The Los Angeles Rams should be one of the best teams in the NFL this season, parlaying 2017 Coach of the Year Sean McVay’s big season last year into another great one this year. They added Brandon Cooks and now have as many weapons as any team in the NFL offensively. Defensively, they added DT Suh and CB’s Peters and Talib. They should also have one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Raiders are in transition in Jon Gruden’s first season and won’t be that good this year. They traded away their best defensive player in Kahlil Mack, and many teammates weren’t happy about it. I just don’t think the Raiders have the offensive punch to hang with the Rams, or the defense to slow them down in Week 1 here. Take Los Angeles. |
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09-09-18 | Seahawks v. Broncos -2.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
7* NFL Game of the Week on Denver Broncos -2.5 The Key: The Denver Broncos have one of the best defenses in the NFL in 2018. They were 3rd in total defense last year and only got better this offseason with the addition of the 5th overall pick in Bradley Chubb. Teams are going to regret passing up on him. The pass rush and secondary are the strengths of the Broncos, and that makes this a great matchup for them against a suspect Seattle offensive line. Russell Wilson is in line for a rough game Sunday in Denver. The Seahawks are just 1-9 ATS in road games in the first two weeks of the season under head coach Pete Carroll. Take Denver. |
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09-08-18 | Penn State v. Pittsburgh +7.5 | 51-6 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
6* Penn State/Pitt ABC *CA$H COW* on Pittsburgh +7.5 The Key: Penn State needing overtime in Week 1 to beat Appalachian State 45-38 as 24-point favorites is a telling sign of things to come for the Nittany Lions. They lost a ton of playmakers on offense, and Trace McSorley was fortunate to bring them back for a win in the final seconds and in OT. But the more concerning thing is a defense that gave up 38 points to the Mountaineers and returns just 3 starters from last year. Pitt doesn’t have an explosive offense, but even they should be able to move the football and score points on this Penn State defense. The Panthers do have a great defense, however, with 9 returning starters. This should be Pat Narduzzi’s best defense yet in his 4th year at Pitt. The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record. Take Pittsburgh. |
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09-08-18 | Clemson v. Texas A&M +12 | 28-26 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
6* Clemson/Texas A&M ESPN *CA$H COW* on Texas A&M +12 The Key: I like the fact that Jimbo Fisher knows Clemson well after coaching against them every year in the ACC at Florida State. Fisher knows what it takes to beat Dabo Swinney and company. And Fisher stepped into a great situation at Texas A&M with 16 returning starters, including QB Kellen Mond, who was offered by Clemson coming out of high school. The Aggies made easy work of Northwestern State 59-7 last Thursday, outgaining them by 507 total yards. And now they’ve had a few extra days to prepare for Clemson, which played on Saturday. This will be the toughest game of the regular season for the Tigers as the 12th Man at Kyle Field is no joke. The Aggies are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 September games, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games. Take Texas A&M. |
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09-08-18 | Georgia v. South Carolina +10.5 | Top | 41-17 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
7* Georgia/South Carolina SEC Game of the Month on South Carolina +10.5 The Key: South Carolina finally has a team that is capable of competing with Georgia. The Gamecocks believe they are good enough to challenge the Bulldogs for an SEC East title this season. They get their chance to prove it on the field at home Saturday in what will be a hostile environment. The Gamecocks are 7-1-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games. South Carolina is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 games off a win by more than 20 points. The Gamecocks are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. This is the best team that Will Muschamp has had yet at South Carolina, especially offensively with a great QB and two amazing playmakers at RB & WR. Take South Carolina. |
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09-08-18 | Buffalo +4.5 v. Temple | 36-29 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
6* Saturday NCAAF Dog of the Day on Buffalo +4.5 The Key: I believe Buffalo has a better team than Temple this season and that will show on the field Saturday. Buffalo has 14 returning starters and one of the more underrated QB/WR combos in the country with Tyree Jackson and Anthony Johnson, who had 76 receptions for 1,356 yards and 14 touchdowns last year. The Bulls rolled Delaware State 48-10 in their opener. Temple lost 17-19 at home to Villanova as 14.5-point favorites, a sign of bad things to come for the Owls this year. They have just 12 returning starters and lose each of their top two receivers from a year ago. Not only did they get beat by Villanova, they got dominated statistically by getting outgained by 154 yards. Their offense is clearly in trouble after amassing just 251 total yards against Villanova. The Bulls are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 September games. The Owls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 September games. Temple is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 vs. MAC opponents. Take Buffalo. |
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09-08-18 | Kansas +4 v. Central Michigan | 31-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
6* Saturday NCAAF *Upset Special* on Kansas +4 The Key: Central Michigan is a rebuilding team this year that returns only 10 starters and loses stud QB Shane Morris. Their game against Kentucky wasn’t as close as the 20-35 final would indicate last week. They were outgained by 172 yards in that matchup. Kansas was upset 23-26 by Nicholls State in overtime, but that’s a great FCS program and the Jayhawks were single-digit favorites. Nicholls State has given Georgia and Texas A&M fits in recent years, so it wasn’t much of an upset and it’s getting overblown. This is still the best team that David Beatty has had at Kansas yet with 19 returning starters in his 4th season. I believe they go on the road and get an ‘upset’ victory against this inexperienced Chippewas squad. Take Kansas. |
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09-07-18 | TCU -22 v. SMU | Top | 42-12 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
7* TCU/SMU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on TCU -22 The Key: The TCU Horned Frogs have owned the SMU Mustangs in recent years. TCU has won the last 5 meetings by more than 31 PPG on average. And that should be about the margin of victory for this year’s matchup. TCU is another Big 12 title contender with an elite defense and an improved offense under a new QB. And SMU is certainly going to take a step back now that Chad Morris is gone after improving dramatically under him and actually making a bowl last year. But they lost that bowl by 41 points with Sonny Dykes at the helm, and they were blasted by 23 points at North Texas in Week 1 in Dykes’ first official first game as head coach last week. The Mustangs are in for a rude awakening tonight. Take TCU. |
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09-03-18 | Virginia Tech +7.5 v. Florida State | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
6* VA Tech/FSU ACC *CA$H COW* on Virginia Tech +7.5 The Key: It’s going to take some time for Florida State to get used to new head coach Willie Taggart’s systems. They are talented on offense and will eventually be great, but I’m expecting plenty of mistakes form them in the opener. And defensively is where they have the biggest questions because they return just 4 starters on D. I trust Justin Fuente, who enters is 3rd season in Blacksburg and has already guided the Hokies to 10 and 9-win seasons in his first 2 years. He has 12 returning starters to work with in 2018, including 7 on offense. Bud Foster’s defense gave up just 14.8 PPG last year, so even though they lose some guys, they will be good again because they are every year. The Seminoles are 0-6-2 ATS in their last 8 conference games. FSU is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. The Hokies are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points. Take Virginia Tech. |
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09-02-18 | Miami-FL -3 v. LSU | Top | 17-33 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
7* Miami/LSU NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami -3 The Key: The Miami Hurricanes won 10 games last year and are a team on the rise under Mark Richt. They have 14 returning starters, including their starting QB and an elite defense. LSU is headed in the wrong direction under Ed Orgeron. And things aren’t getting any better for him this season with just 10 returning starters. LSU is 1-8 ATS in September games over the last 3 seasons. Orgeron is 4-13 ATS in September games as a head coach. LSU is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 vs. ACC teams. Take Miami. |
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09-01-18 | Washington +2.5 v. Auburn | Top | 16-21 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
7* Washington/Auburn Top 10 *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +2.5 The Key: The Washington Huskies are one of the best teams in the country in 2018. They return 17 starters from a team that won 10 games last year. This is a statement game for them taking down an SEC team in Auburn on a neutral field. The Huskies have the best unit on the field, which is their defense that gave up 16.1 PPG last year and returns 9 starters. Their ability to shut down Jarrett Stidham and this Auburn offense will be the key to victory. The Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games. Auburn is 0-5-1 ATS in its last 6 non-conference games. Take Washington. |
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09-01-18 | Northern Illinois +10 v. Iowa | 7-33 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
6* Saturday NCAAF *Upset Special* on Northern Illinois +10 The Key: Northern Illinois is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games against the Big Ten. The Huskies have been notorious for pulling off upsets against this conference throughout the years. They even beat this same Iowa team on the road in 2013. They beat Northwestern and Nebraska both since 2014, and they only lost by 7 to Ohio State as 34-point underdogs in 2015. Iowa is just 1-5 ATS in its last six games against MAC teams. I like this NIU squad that returns 14 starters. They have everyone back on the offensive line to protect for talented sophomore QB Marcus Childers, who is coming off a great freshman campaign. Iowa will be without its two starting offensive tackles for this game with suspensions. They are also missing two key defensive linemen. They already lose 6 of their top 8 tacklers on defense. The Huskies are 34-16-3 ATS in their last 53 road games. Take Northern Illinois. |
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08-31-18 | Utah State +24 v. Michigan State | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
6* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah State +24 The Key: Utah State figures to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season. The Aggies return 18 starts and are more than capable of keeping this game close against Michigan State. I think the Spartans come in overrated after a 10-win season last year that nobody could have predicted. They won 10 games in spite of an offense that managed just 24.5 PPG. That offense won’t be much better this season. They do have another good defense again, but asking them to lay this many points in the opener to a game Utah State team is too much. The Aggies are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 Friday games. The Spartans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Friday games. Take Utah State. |
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08-30-18 | Northwestern v. Purdue -1 | 31-27 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
6* Northwestern/Purdue Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Purdue -1 The Key: Purdue still enters 2017 getting no respect after making a bowl in Jeff Brohm’s first year. They are just 1-point home favorites here against the Northwestern Wildcats. And they have 13 starters back from that team, including 9 on offense. This should be one of the best offenses in the Big Ten. Northwestern has a great defense but its offense leaves a lot to be desired, especially with the loss of NU’s all-time leading rusher in Justin Jackson. I believe Clayton Thorson is overrated and won’t be hitting on all cylinders in Game 1 as he returns from a torn ACL. The Boilermakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. They’ll want revenge from a 23-13 loss at Northwestern last year. Take Purdue. |
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08-25-18 | Hawaii +17 v. Colorado State | 43-34 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
6* Hawaii/Colorado State MWC *CA$H COW* on Hawaii +17 The Key: Colorado State is one of the least experienced teams in the country this season. They rank 130th in terms of experience and have just 9 returning starters this year. I think this is a hefty price for them to pay in their opener against a conference opponent in Hawaii. The Warriors will be trying to win this game for the people of Hawaii, who are having to endure a Hurricane right now and all that comes with it. This is a chance for them to get away to the mainland and focus on football for a day. They went to the mainland and won their opener last season against UMass. Take Hawaii. |
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01-14-18 | Jaguars v. Steelers -7 | Top | 45-42 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 7 m | Show |
7* Jaguars/Steelers AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh -7 The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers committed 5 turnovers and gave up two pick-6’s the first time these teams played. But the Steelers have gone 10-1 since that loss to the Jaguars in Week 5. And the only loss was to the Patriots on a controversial call that overturned a game-winning TD. The Steelers are now basically fully healthy going into the playoffs for the first time in a long time. They have a high-powered offense and an improved defense. Blake Bortles won’t be able to keep up with a motivated Big Ben who will want to make amends for that 5-pick effort back in Week 5. And Le’Veon Bell is primed for a huge game as he gets the bulk of the action in this game against a Jags run D that has been sub-par all season. The Steelers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 playoff home games, including 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 Divisional Playoff games. Their experience wins out in this one. Take Pittsburgh. |
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01-13-18 | Titans v. Patriots -13 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
7* Titans/Patriots AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New England -13 The Key: No analysis Saturday due to a funeral |
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01-08-18 | Alabama -3.5 v. Georgia | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
7* Alabama/Georgia NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -3.5 The Key: It’s not often you’ll get the opportunity to back Alabama as this small of a favorite. After all, they have been favored in 110 for their last 111 games with the only exception being 1-point underdogs at Georgia in 2015. They blew out the Bulldogs 38-10 that year. Alabama is equipped to stop Georgia considering the Crimson Tide have the best rushing defense in the country, giving up just 2.7 yards per carry. Nick Saban is great at making his opponents play left-handed. He will make Georgia’s freshman QB try and beat them through the air, and I don’t think he is capable of it. Speaking of Saban, he’s 11-0 all-time against former assistants, winning by 29 PPG on average. Kirby Smart is simply overmatched here. Take Alabama. |
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01-07-18 | Panthers v. Saints -6.5 | Top | 26-31 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
7* Panthers/Saints NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans -6.5 The Key: The Saints have owned the Panthers. They have gone a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Carolina. They have scores 31 and 34 points in their two meetings this season, outscoring the Panthers 65-34 in the process. Their offense has had no trouble moving the ball and scoring points on Carolina’s defense. That will continue here inside a hostile atmosphere in New Orleans. Cam Newton went just 14-of-34 passing last week against the Falcons, and I don’t think the Panthers have the firepower on offense to keep up. Newton has only thrown for over 185 yards twice in his last 9 games. The Saints are 20-0 SU & 16-3-1 ATS in their last 20 home games when they have a winning record. It’s just a completely different atmosphere inside the Mercedes-Benz Superdome when they are good. Take New Orleans. |
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01-06-18 | Falcons +6 v. Rams | Top | 26-13 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
7* Falcons/Rams NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta +6 The Key: The Atlanta Falcons won 10 games this season despite playing the 4th most difficult schedule in the NFL. The Rams had a great season but only had to face the 17th schedule. And teams that played the tougher schedule in these wild card games are 41-19 straight up and 41-18-1 against the spread. They are 24-5 straight up and 23-5-1 against the number when the difference is 10 or more. Take Atlanta. |
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01-01-18 | Alabama -3 v. Clemson | Top | 24-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
7* Alabama/Clemson NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -3 The Key: Nick Saban and the Alabama Crimson Tide will be out for revenge from their loss to Clemson on the final play of the game as they were going for their 2nd consecutive national championship. But now Clemson doesn’t have Deshaun Watson to dig them out of a hole again. Saban is 10-2 straight up in revenge game as the coach of Alabama. They had an extra week to get ready for this game because they finally didn’t make the SEC Championship. Now they are getting healthy on defense for the first time in a long time. Take Alabama. |
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01-01-18 | Georgia v. Oklahoma +3 | 54-48 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
6* Georgia/Oklahoma NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Oklahoma +3 The Key: Oklahoma has been able to handle the SEC and big teams better than basically any team in the country. The Sooners are 4-0 in their last 4 against SEC opponents. They are also 7-0 against the spread against teams that have won at least 75% of their games over the last 2 seasons. They are 11-1 ATS against teams with winning records over the last 2 years as well. I think Georgia is in for a rude awakening against by far the best offense they have seen this season, especially the best passing offense led by Baker Mayfield. Take Oklahoma. |
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12-31-17 | Bills -2.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 22-16 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
7* Bills/Dolphins AFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -2.5 The Key: The Bills must win to get into the playoffs. They need some help, but first they must win. The Dolphins can’t be trusted to offer much resistance with the way they are playing down the stretch. They have gone just 2-7 in their last 9 games overall. The Bills have won 2 of their last 3 with their only loss coming to the Patriots on the road, and that game was tied 16-16 in the 3rd quarter and the Bills really got screwed by the refs having a touchdown called back that changed the complexion of the game. The Bills just beat the Dolphins 24-16 at home a few weeks back. Miami is 1-9 ATS off a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse over the last 3 seasons. The Dolphins are 5-23 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing more than 250 passing yards in their previous game. I’ll side with the more motivated Bills in this matchup. Take Buffalo. |
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12-31-17 | Cowboys -3 v. Eagles | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 3 h 41 m | Show | |
6* Cowboys/Eagles NFC East *CA$H COW* on Dallas -3 The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles are more concerned with keeping guys healthy going into the postseason. They just locked up the No. 1 seed so they have literally nothing to play for. The Cowboys want to finish strong as evidenced by several quotes from their two offensive leaders in Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott earlier in the week. I think they roll the Eagles’ scrubs, who could enter this game as early as the first quarter. Take Dallas. |
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12-31-17 | Jets +15.5 v. Patriots | 6-26 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 41 m | Show | |
6* Jets/Patriots AFC East *CA$H COW* on New York +15.5 The Key: No team has played the Patriots tougher than the Jets over the last few years. In fact, the Jets are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings with the Patriots. They have only lost by more than 7 points once in their last 9 meetings. Now they’re catching 15.5 points against the Patriots today and it’s simply too much. Take New York. |
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12-30-17 | Wisconsin v. Miami-FL +6.5 | Top | 34-24 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
7* NCAAF Bowl Game of the Year on Miami +6.5 The Key: This will be a home game for the Miami Hurricanes played in the Orange Bowl down in Miami. They had their two best performances of the season in home night games earlier this year. They beat Virginia Tech 28-10 as 1.5-point favorites and Notre Dame 41-8 as 3.5-point underdogs. I think they come forth with a huge effort here against Wisconsin to finish off their season the right way. Miami will be the bet team Wisconsin has faced outside Ohio State as the Badgers played an extremely soft schedule. And the Badgers were thoroughly outplayed by the Buckeyes in their lone loss of the season. I think you can chalk up loss No. 2 for the Badgers here Saturday night. Take Miami. |
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12-28-17 | Stanford v. TCU -3 | Top | 37-39 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
7* Stanford/TCU NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on TCU -3 The Key: I’m getting the better defense and the better offense in this game with TCU -3 here over Stanford. I’m also getting a home-field advantage for the Horned Frogs as this game will be played in the Alamo Dome in San Antonio, Texas. The Frogs give up just 17.6 PPG and 329 YPG which is ridiculously impressive in the Big 12 these days. They also average 33.2 PPG and 414 YPG on offense. Stanford only averages 32 PPG and 381 YPG on offense while giving up 21.5 PPG and 399 YPG on defense. They are actually getting outgained by 18 YPG on the season, which is a sign that their 9-4 record is fraudulent. Gary Patterson has had plenty of time to scheme and prepare for Stanford’s Bryce Love, which is their only real weapon offense. The Horned Frogs only give up 100 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry this season. Take TCU. |
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12-27-17 | Missouri v. Texas +3 | Top | 16-33 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
7* Missouri/Texas NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas +3 The Key: Missouri feasted on a weak schedule down the stretch to get to a bowl game. After a 1-5 start, they reeled off 6 straight victories against Idaho, UConn, Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Arkansas. None of those 6 teams made a bowl games. Texas went through the Big 12 gauntlet and played both USC and Maryland out of conference. They went 6-6, but they were competitive in every game and 4 of their 6 losses came by 5 points or less. Tom Herman is 15-1 ATS in his coaching career as an underdog. The wrong team is favored in this game. Take Texas. |
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12-26-17 | Northern Illinois +7 v. Duke | Top | 14-36 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
7* NIU/Duke NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Northern Illinois +7 The Key: The Northern Illinois Huskies have been one of the better Group of 5 teams in the country for years. They kind of get overlooked this season because they ‘only’ went 8-4, but this is still a very good team that nearly won the MAC. All four losses came by 10 points or less, including three by 7 points or fewer to Boston College (20-23), San Diego State (28-34), Central Michigan (24-31) and Toledo (17-27) with three of those losses coming on the road. They also beat Nebraska on the road. So they were competitive in every game, and they will be competitive against Duke here. The Blue Devils only beat two bowl teams this season. What gives NIU a shot to pull the upset tonight is the fact that its defense ranks 20th in the country, giving up just 20.8 PPG, 328 YPG and 4.6 YPP on the season. The offense has been fine in scoring 30.2 PPG. Duke’s offense has been suspect at 25.7 PPG. This just has the makings of a low-scoring, defensive battle, and that certainly favors the underdog getting 7 points. The Huskies are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games off two straight games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. The Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games. Take Northern Illinois. |
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12-25-17 | Steelers v. Texans +9 | Top | 34-6 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
7* Steelers/Texans AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston +9 The Key: I question the motivation of the Pittsburgh Steelers today. They blew their game against the Patriots and lost a game that decided the No. 1 seed in the AFC. And with the Jaguars losing yesterday, the Steelers can afford a loss today and still get a first-round bye by winning next week against the lowly Browns at home. They will suffer a hangover from that loss to the Patriots last week. Plus they don’t have two of their best players in Antonio Brown and Ryan Shazier. And the Steelers have several close wins against bad teams of late as 6 of their last 7 games have been decided by 5 points or fewer. Bets on teams that were beaten by the spread by 49 or more total points in their last 7 games against an opponent that went over the total by 28 or more points in their last 3 games are 39-13 ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Texans couldn’t be more undervalued than they are right now off 3 straight double-digit losses. Take Houston. |
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12-24-17 | Lions -3 v. Bengals | 17-26 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 51 m | Show | |
6* Sunday NFL *BLOWOUT* on Detroit Lions -3 The Key: The Detroit Lions have to be more than 3-point favorites over the Cincinnati Bengals today based on the motivation of these two teams. The Lions have managed to stay alive in the playoff race by going 5-2 in their last 7 games overall. Now they play a Bengals team that has clearly quit, losing their last 2 games to the Bears and Vikings by a combined score of 14-67. Marvin Lewis has announced he is done after the season, so the players have nothing left to fight for. And the Bengals are a mash unit due to all of their injuries both on the offensive line and all over the defense. Cincinnati is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games after railing its previous game by 21 or more at the half. Detroit is 10-2 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take Detroit. |
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12-24-17 | Broncos +3 v. Redskins | 11-27 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 51 m | Show | |
6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Denver Broncos +3 The Key: Brock Osweiler had a near-perfect QBR in his last game against the Colts. He is trying to show teams that he can still be a starting quarterback in this league. The Broncos have throttled the Colts and Broncos by a combined 48-13 score over the past 2 weeks. Now they have extra prep time to get ready for the Washington Redskins after playing last Thursday. They have the league’s top-ranked defense this season and will make life miserable on Kirk Cousins and the banged-up Redskins. Washington was fortunate to win last week against the Cardinals limiting them to 5 field goals instead of touchdowns. I think Osweiler and company punch it in a few more times this week, and the defense shuts down this anemic Washington offense. The Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win. Take Denver. |
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12-24-17 | Rams v. Titans +7 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 4 h 52 m | Show |
7* NFL Game of the Year on Tennessee Titans +7 The Key: Two weeks ago you could have bet the Los Angeles Rams at a pick ‘em against the Tennessee Titans. This line has moved 7 points since then. That’s based solely on public perception. The Rams are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 42-7 beat down at Seattle. After basically clinching the division with that victory, I expect them to suffer a letdown this week against the Titans. The Titans have since lost back-to-back games and that’s why the perception on them is down. But they have everything to play for here at 8-6 as they are fighting for a playoff spot in the crowded AFC. And they still have a chance to win the division if they can win out. That’s why I expect the best effort of the season from the Titans in this game. And we’re getting 7 points with them at home. This is one of the best values I’ve ever seen in the NFL. Take Tennessee. |
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12-23-17 | Appalachian State v. Toledo -6 | 34-0 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
6* App State/Toledo NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Toledo -6 The Key: I really like this spot for the Toledo Rockets. They lost to Appalachian State in their bowl game last season, and now they get a shot at revenge this season. I think they will be the more hungry team because of it. And I think Appalachian State isn’t as good as last year, while Toledo is a better football team than it was a year ago. The Rockets won the MAC this season. Their only 2 losses both came on the road at Miami and at Ohio. That Ohio game wasn’t that important because they had basically clinched the MAC West with a win over Northern Illinois the week before, so it was a letdown spot. They went on to win their final 3 games by 29, 27 and 17 points. And that 17-point win came after they let the foot off the gas following a 35-0 lead over Akron in which they committed 5 turnovers, or it would have been an even bigger blowout. Appalachian State lost to the likes of UMass and UL Monroe this season. The Mountaineers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after leading their previous game by 24 or more points at the half. The Rockets are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after leading their previous game by 17 or more at the half. Take Toledo. |
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12-23-17 | Colts +14 v. Ravens | Top | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 4 h 40 m | Show |
7* Colts/Ravens AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Indianapolis +14 The Key: The Baltimore Ravens don’t have a potent enough offense to be laying 2 touchdowns to the Indianapolis Colts today. In fact, they have one of the worst offenses in the entire NFL. They have been living off turnovers this season, which is hard to sustain. They are plus-17 in turnover differential. But the Colts don’t turn the ball over as Jacoby Brissett has thrown just 7 interceptions on the season. The Colts have committed 1 or fewer turnovers in 11 of their 14 games this year. They aren’t going to give the Ravens the gifts they have been used to getting this year. That’s going to make it hard for them to cover this massive spread. The Colts have shown up every week and given a great effort for Chuck Pagano. He is doing a good job, and it’s unfortunate that he may lose that job at the end of the season. But it won’t be for a lack of fighting, and I expect his players to show up for him this week once again. This is also a good spot for the Colts as they are rested after playing last Thursday against the Broncos, getting extra time to prepare, while the Ravens are on a short week after beating the Browns on Sunday. Bets against home favorites a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) against a losing team are 70-38 ATS over the last 10 seasons. Pagano is 23-13 ATS off a loss as the coach of Indianapolis. The Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit home loss. The Ravens are 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a win by more than 14 points. The Colts are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take Indianapolis. |
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12-22-17 | Central Michigan +3 v. Wyoming | Top | 14-37 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 53 m | Show |
7* Central Michigan/Wyoming NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Central Michigan +3 The Key: The Wyoming Cowboys are overrated because of Josh Allen’s NFL prospects. But this offense has been one of the worst in the country. The Cowboys only average 22.3 points and 287 yards per game. That’s not very good for a QB like Allen who was expected to be a top draft choice coming into the season. Conversely, the CMU Chippewas are rolling offensively. They have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games behind an offense that has scored at least 31 points in all 5 games while averaging 41.2 PPG. Miami transfer Shane Morris is lighting it up at the quarterback position, and the rushing offense has really gotten going too. I like their momentum coming into this game and simply think they are the better team and shouldn’t be catching points. Bets against favorites of 3 to 10 points off a close road loss by 3 points or less, with a winning record playing another winning team are 39-13 ATS since 1992. Take Central Michigan. |
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12-21-17 | Temple -6.5 v. Florida International | Top | 28-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
7* Temple/FIU NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Temple -6.5 The Key: This is one of the bigger strength of schedule differences of any bowl game. Temple play the much tougher slate of games. And after struggling to start, they made the switch at quarterback and have finished strong. They have won 3 of their last 4 with their only loss coming to unbeaten UCF to get to 6-6 and bowl eligible. This Temple senior class has never won a bowl game and will be motivated to do so after getting upset by both Toledo and Wake Forest the past two seasons. FIU went 8-4 this season, but only 2 of the wins came against bowl teams in Marshall and WKU. Their 4 losses all came by 7 points or more, including 3 by 20-plus points against the better opponents they faced. They lost by 44 to UCF and by 28 to FAU. I think Temple is only a notch below those 2 teams. Temple is 7-0 ATS after allowing 125 or fewer passing yards over the last 2 seasons. The Owls are 15-3 ATS after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons. Temple is 11-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses that allow 58% completions or worse over the last 2 seasons. The Owls are 6-0 ATS in road games versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.9 or more yards per play over the last 3 years. The Owls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. C-USA teams. The Golden Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. FIU is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 non-conference games. Take Temple. |
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12-18-17 | Falcons -6.5 v. Bucs | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
7* Falcons/Bucs NFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta -6.5 The Key: The Atlanta Falcons have done whatever they wanted to offensively in their last two meetings with the Bucs. They won 43-28 in Tampa last year with 461 total yards, and they won 34-20 at home earlier this season behind 516 total yards. The Bucs rank last in the NFL in total defense and won’t offer much resistance tonight either. The Bucs are a mess at 4-9 on the season and haven’t had a bye all year. They are tired, they are beat up, and they stand no chance of keeping this game close against Atlanta. They are going to be without 2 of their best players on defense in DT Gerald McCoy and LB Lavonte David. Tampa Bay is 0-6 ATS as an underdog this season. The Bucs are 0-6 ATS vs. teams who average 235 or more passing yards per game this season. The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Monday games. The Bucs are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC opponents, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC South opponents. Take Atlanta. |
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12-17-17 | Dolphins v. Bills -3 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 5 h 32 m | Show | |
6* Sunday NFL *BLOWOUT* on Buffalo Bills -3 The Key: Don’t look now but the Buffalo Bills are in the playoffs if the season were to end today. They have a lot to play for, and it’s as hard to win in Buffalo in December as it is anywhere else in the NFL. Now they get to host the Dolphins, who are in the ultimate letdown spot following their upset win over the Patriots on Monday. They are also on a short week, and this warm weather team won’t like the conditions in Buffalo. This game just screams Bills’ blowout because they get starting QB Tyrod Taylor back from injury this week, and they are the better running team in this cold weather. Bets on any team (Buffalo) after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last 5 games against an opponent that went over the total by 35 or more points in their last 5 games are 41-13 ATS over the last 10 years. The Bills are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games in the 2nd half of the season vs. bad defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game. The Dolphins are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Sunday games following a Monday game. Take Buffalo. |
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12-17-17 | Cardinals +4 v. Redskins | 15-20 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 32 m | Show | |
6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Arizona Cardinals +4 The Key: The Arizona Cardinals have won 2 of their last 3 games coming into this contest over the Titans and Jaguars, two teams poised to make the playoffs. They should be able to handle the Washington Redskins, who sit at 5-8 and are done for. This Redskins defense looks to have basically quit as they have allowed 30 or more points in 6 of their last 8 games. The Cardinals still have an elite defense as they are yielding just 242 yards per game in their last 3 contests. I’m not sure how the Redskins can be favored by more than a field goal in a game that they’ll likely lose outright. They are just 14-28 ATS in their last 42 home games as a favorite in the 3.5-7 range. The Redskins are also just 11-28-2 ATS in their last 41 home games when playing against a team with a losing record. Take Arizona. |
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12-16-17 | Chargers v. Chiefs | 13-30 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
6* Chargers/Chiefs AFC West *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles PK The Key: The Chargers have been one of the best teams in the NFL down the stretch. They have won 4 straight games by a combined 78 points, or an average of 19.5 points per game. The Chiefs have lost 4 of their last 5 with their only win coming at home against the hapless Raiders. They also lost to the Giants, Bills and Jets during this stretch. It’s clear to me which team is playing better football right now and most likely to get the win in this pick ‘em game. Philip Rivers knows this is one of his last chances to make the playoffs, and he’s not going to squander it. Take Los Angeles. |
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12-16-17 | Oregon -7 v. Boise State | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
7* Oregon/Boise State ABC *HEAVY HITTER* on Oregon -7 The Key: Oregon was 6-1 and averaged 51.2 points in games Justin Herbert started this season, while going 1-4 and scoring 15.0 points in games he was sidelined. That’s all you need to know about this game. The Ducks will hang a big number on the Boise State Broncos, and they won’t be able to keep up. Take Oregon. |
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12-14-17 | Broncos -2.5 v. Colts | Top | 25-13 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
7* Broncos/Colts AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver -2.5 The Key: The Denver Broncos actually have the No. 1 defense in the NFL based on a number of different statistical categories. That is the difference in this game as the Colts have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, giving up 26.4 points and 375.3 yards per game. And the Colts have one of the worst offenses as well, averaging just 16.3 points and 290.7 yards per game. This is a complete mismatch, and even this stagnant Denver offense should be able to get going against this weak Colts defense tonight. The Colts are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games after scoring 17 points or fewer in 3 straight games. Take Denver. |
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12-11-17 | Patriots v. Dolphins +12 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
7* Patriots/Dolphins AFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +12 The Key: The Patriots will be playing their 4th road game in 5 weeks here. They also have to play a team they just beat by 18 points 2 weeks ago. And they have their ‘game of the year’ against the Steelers on deck next week. This couldn’t be a worse situation for the Patriots. I think their 6-game ATS winning streak comes to an end Monday night. They are being asked to lay too many points in Miami. The home team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these teams. The Dolphins have won 2 of their last 3 home meetings with the Patriots outright. Take Miami. |
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12-10-17 | Redskins v. Chargers -6 | Top | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
7* NFL *Blowout* Game of the Month on Los Angeles Chargers -6 The Key: The Redskins have nothing to play for after losing 14-38 to the Cowboys last week. It was their last stand, and now they’re done. And they’ve been hit so hard by injuries that they never had a chance anyway. The Chargers have everything to play for as they are tied for first place in the AFC West with the Chiefs and Raiders. They have won 6 of their last 8 and Philip Rivers has a 12-to-1 TD/INT ratio in the six wins. He’s playing at a high level, and he’s backed by a defense that is great against the pass and getting to the quarterback. That makes this a bad matchup for the Redskins and Kirk Cousins. The Chargers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games during Week 14. The favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take Los Angeles. |
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12-10-17 | Bears +6.5 v. Bengals | 33-7 | Win | 100 | 2 h 24 m | Show | |
6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Chicago Bears +6.5 The Key: The Cincinnati Bengals suffered a crushing loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football. They blew a 17-point lead in that game. It was their last stand. Now they’re on a short week and won’t be excited at all to face the Bears. And they are missing numerous players on defense, and possibly their entire starting secondary. The Bears continue to fight despite the poor media attention. I think they can go into Cincinnati and pull the upset, but we’ll take the points for some added cushion. The Bears have been competitive in every game by one that Mitch Trubisky has started. They have only lost by more than 8 points once in their last 8 games, and that was at Philadelphia. The Bengals only have 2 wins by more than 4 points all season. John Fox is 10-1 ATS when he total is 35.5 to 42 as the coach of Chicago. The Bengals cannot be this heavily favored considering the bad spot for them off the Steelers game Monday, and all of their injuries on defense. Take Chicago. |
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12-10-17 | Raiders v. Chiefs -4 | 15-26 | Win | 100 | 2 h 24 m | Show | |
6* Raiders/Chiefs AFC West *CA$H COW* on Kansas City -4 The Key: The Chiefs have lost 6 of their last 7 after a 5-0 start. They are now tied for first place in the AFC West with the Raiders and Chargers. I think we are getting them at a discount now after this poor run. Their offense came to life last week with 31 points while averaging over 10 yards per play against the Jets. I think they score in bunches here against an awful Raiders defense. The Chiefs will want revenge on the Raiders after losing on the final play of the game 31-30 in their first meeting. The Raiders likely won’t have Amari Cooper because of an ankle injury. That’s huge considering Cooper has 11 receptions for 210 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Chiefs in the first meeting. Bets on home favorites revenging a loss against opponent, off an upset loss as a favorite are 33-11 ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Chiefs are 7-0 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. Kansas City is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 vs. AFC West foes. Take Kansas City. |
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12-07-17 | Saints v. Falcons -2 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
7* Saints/Falcons NFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta -2 The Key: The Atlanta Falcons are ‘all in’ tonight as they can’t afford to lose this game if they want to make the playoffs. Look for them to get the job done at home against the Saints, who have beaten up on such a soft schedule of late. The one time they stepped up on class? They lost 20-26 on the road to the Rams two weeks ago only after scoring a touchdown in the closing seconds to make the score look closer than was. Now this is another step up game for the Saints. The Falcons get two starting cornerbacks back this week from injury, and that’s going to be huge for them. The Saints are still banged up everywhere, especially on defense. Bets on home favorites after having won 2 of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team 51% to 60% playing a winning team are 28-6 ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Atlanta. |
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12-04-17 | Steelers v. Bengals +6 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
7* AFC North Game of the Year on Cincinnati Bengals +6 The Key: The season is on the line for the Cincinnati Bengals tonight. At 5-6 they need a win to stay in the playoff hunt. The Steelers are 9-2 and can afford a loss now. Because they host the Patriots in a couple weeks, they can lose this game and win that one and still be the No. 1 seed in the AFC. I believe this line is way off as the Steelers were only 3.5-point favorites over the Bengals at home in their first meeting, and now they are 6-point road favorites in the second meeting. That’s an 8.5-point adjustment. And the Steelers have recent 3-point wins over both the Colts and Packers, so it’s not like they are playing at an extremely high level. The Steelers are 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Take Cincinnati. |
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12-03-17 | Browns +14 v. Chargers | 10-19 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
6* Browns/Chargers AFC *CA$H COW* on Cleveland +14 The Key: This line has gotten way out of whack. The Chargers can’t be 2 touchdown favorites against anyone. I realize the Cleveland Browns are 0-11, but they are better than they get credit for. One quick look at the stats shows that. The Browns are only getting outgained by 8 yards per game on the season, averaging 310 yards per game on offense and giving up 8 per game on defense. Their problem has been red zone struggles on both sides of the ball. But now the Browns are in the largest underdog role they’ve been all season, and it’s coming against a mediocre 5-6 Chargers team that has zero home-field advantage. Bets on underdogs of 10.5 or more points off 7 or more consecutive losses against opponent off 2 or more consecutive wins are 23-7 ATS since 1983. Bets on road underdogs off 6 or more consecutive losses in weeks 10 through 13 are 35-13 ATS since 1983. Take Cleveland. |
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12-03-17 | Patriots v. Bills +9 | 23-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
6* Patriots/Bills AFC *CA$H COW* on Buffalo +9 The Key: The Patriots have some mass injuries right now they are dealing with. They will be without receiver Chris Hogan, offensive tackle Marcus Cannon and sack leader Trey Flowers. They also could be without cornerback Eric Rose and offensive tackler LeAdrian Waddle, who are both questionable. The Bills earned a huge 16-10 win in Kansas City last week to keep their playoff hopes alive. Their defense was awesome, limiting the Chiefs to just 10 points and 236 total yards. They have a knack for playing the Patriots tough. They have actually won 2 of the last 5 meetings outright and have only lost once by more than 8 points in those 5 meetings. The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The Bills are 26-13 ATS in their last 39 home games in weeks 10 through 13. Take Buffalo. |
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12-03-17 | Lions v. Ravens -3 | Top | 20-44 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
7* NFL Blowout Game of the Year on Baltimore Ravens -3 The Key: This game is all about the matchup. The Ravens have 14 sacks over the past month and have forced 13 turnovers in their past 4 games. Mathew Stafford has been sacked 10 times in the past 3 weeks and they are starting to turn the ball over more. Stafford is nursing an ankle injury that will have him far from full strength. And there are injuries along the offensive line that are going to allow the Ravens to get after him for 4 quarters. The Vikings put up 30 points and 408 total yards on this Detroit defense last week, and I think Joe Flacco and the offense will do enough to support their dominant defense in this one. Bet on home favorites that have won 2 of their last 3 games coming in, who are winning 51% to 60% of their games and playing another winning team are 27-6 ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Baltimore. |
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12-02-17 | South Alabama v. New Mexico State -9.5 | 17-22 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
6* Saturday NCAAF *BLOWOUT* on New Mexico State -9.5 The Key: We are going to get a max-motivated New Mexico State Aggies team here Saturday. They sit at 5-6 on the season and need one more win for bowl eligibility, while 4-7 South Alabama has been eliminated from bowl contention. New Mexico State hasn’t been to a bowl game since 1960! Senior QB Tyler Rodgers has been the catalyst for the turnaround. He sat out last game with a shoulder injury, but it 100% now and will make his return on Senior Day here. These teams have 5 common opponents. South Alabama is getting outgained by 113 yards per game against those 5 teams, while New Mexico State is outgaining those 5 teams by 13 yards per game. It’s clear which of these is the better team, and which will be more motivated. South Alabama is 0-8 ATS in road games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Jaguars are 0-7 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 years. Take New Mexico State. |
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12-02-17 | UL-Monroe +26.5 v. Florida State | 10-42 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
6* NCAAF Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Louisiana-Monroe +26.5 The Key: The LA-Monroe Warhawks have held their own against some very good competition this year. They only lost 29-37 at Memphis as 28-point dogs, and that Memphis team has just one loss on the season. They only lost 14-42 at Auburn as 39-point dogs, and Auburn is one win away from making the four-team playoff. Now they face a worse team than both of those squads in 5-6 Florida State. And the Seminoles are in turmoil right now with Jimbo Fisher announcing yesterday that he was signing a 10-year, $75 million deal with Texas A&M. Players could revolt here. They need one more win for a bowl game, but it’s hard to believe these players even want to play in a bowl now with Fisher gone. The Seminoles are 0-6 ATS versus good offensive teams averaging 425 or more yards per game this season. Take Louisiana-Monroe. |
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12-02-17 | Akron +21 v. Toledo | Top | 28-45 | Win | 100 | 3 h 48 m | Show |
7* Akron/Toledo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Akron +21 The Key: The Toledo Rockets cannot be 3-touchdown favorites in the MAC Championship Game. They beat Akron 48-21 at home earlier this season for a 27-point victory. But the Zips have improved since then and this game will be on a neutral field, and they’ll want revenge from that defeat. They also have a more electric quarterback running the show now in freshman Kato Nelson, who has thrown 6 TD’s against 2 INT while leading the Zips to the MAC East title down the stretch. He also adds a dual-threat element with 167 rushing yards and a score. MAC dogs of 12 or more in championship games are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 tries. The Zips are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall. The Zips are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. Take Akron. |
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12-01-17 | Stanford v. USC -3.5 | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
7* Stanford/USC NCAAF Friday Night Lights on USC -3.5 The Key: The USC Trojans have had 2 weeks to get ready for Stanford after receiving their bye last week. The Cardinal are on a short week after a tough game against Notre Dame in which they trailed into the 4th quarter Saturday night before the Fighting Irish gave the game away with 3 turnovers. The situation favors the Trojans, who have already beaten the Cardinal 42-24 while racking up over 600 yards of total offense against them in their first meeting this year. The Cardinal are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. Take USC. |
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11-26-17 | Jaguars v. Cardinals +5.5 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
6* Jags/Cardinals Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Arizona +5 |
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11-26-17 | Bears +14.5 v. Eagles | 3-31 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 32 m | Show | |
6* NFC Game of the Week on Chicago Bears +14.5 |
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11-26-17 | Dolphins +17 v. Patriots | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
7* AFC East Game of the Year on Miami Dolphins +17 |
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11-25-17 | Temple -3 v. Tulsa | Top | 43-22 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
7* NCAA Football Game of the Year on Temple -3 |
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11-25-17 | Florida Atlantic -23 v. Charlotte | 31-12 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
6* Saturday NCAAF *BLOWOUT* on Florida Atlantic -23 |
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11-25-17 | Tulane +8 v. SMU | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
6* Saturday NCAAF *UPSET SPECIAL* on Tulane +8 |
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11-24-17 | California +7 v. UCLA | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
7* Cal/UCLA NCAAF Friday Night Lights on California +7 |
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11-23-17 | Giants +7.5 v. Redskins | Top | 10-20 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
7* Giants/Redskins NFC East Game of the Month on New York +7.5 |
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11-21-17 | Kent State v. Akron -15 | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
6* Tuesday NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Akron -15 |
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11-19-17 | Bills +4.5 v. Chargers | 24-54 | Loss | -110 | 64 h 44 m | Show | |
6* Bills/Chargers AFC *CA$H COW* on Buffalo +4.5 |
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11-19-17 | Jaguars v. Browns +8 | Top | 19-7 | Loss | -105 | 61 h 39 m | Show |
7* NFL Dog of the Month on Cleveland Browns +8 |
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11-18-17 | Utah +17.5 v. Washington | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 47 h 3 m | Show | |
6* Utah/Washington Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on Utah +17.5 |
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11-18-17 | Florida International +14.5 v. Florida Atlantic | 24-52 | Loss | -105 | 43 h 28 m | Show | |
6* Conference USA Game of the Week on Florida International +14.5 |
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11-18-17 | Oklahoma v. Kansas +38 | Top | 41-3 | Push | 0 | 40 h 58 m | Show |
7* Big 12 Game of the Year on Kansas +38 |
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11-15-17 | Eastern Michigan v. Miami-OH -2.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
7* EMU/Miami Ohio MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami -2.5 |
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11-12-17 | Cowboys v. Falcons -3 | 7-27 | Win | 100 | 42 h 59 m | Show | |
6* Cowboys/Falcons NFC *CA$H COW* on Atlanta -3 |
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11-12-17 | Chargers v. Jaguars -4.5 | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 27 m | Show | |
6* AFC Game of the Week on Jacksonville Jaguars -4.5 |
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11-12-17 | Saints v. Bills +3 | Top | 47-10 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 27 m | Show |
7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year on Buffalo Bills +3 |
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11-11-17 | Tennessee v. Missouri -12.5 | 17-50 | Win | 100 | 23 h 0 m | Show | |
6* SEC Game of the Week on Missouri -12.5 |
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11-11-17 | Washington State v. Utah +1.5 | Top | 33-25 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 1 m | Show |
7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Utah +1.5 |
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11-11-17 | Middle Tennessee State -12.5 v. Charlotte | 35-21 | Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show | |
6* Conference USA Game of the Week on Middle Tennessee -12.5 |
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11-11-17 | Michigan State +17 v. Ohio State | 3-48 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 28 m | Show | |
6* Big Ten Game of the Week on Michigan State +17 |
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11-11-17 | Oklahoma State v. Iowa State +7 | 49-42 | Push | 0 | 15 h 23 m | Show | |
6* Big 12 Game of the Week on Iowa State +7 |
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11-10-17 | BYU v. UNLV -2.5 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
7* BYU/UNLV NCAAF Friday Night Lights on UNLV -2.5 |
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11-09-17 | Seahawks v. Cardinals +7 | Top | 22-16 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
7* Seahawks/Cardinals NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Arizona +7 |
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11-09-17 | Ball State +32 v. Northern Illinois | 17-63 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
6* Ball State/NIU MAC *CA$H COW* on Ball State +32 |
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11-08-17 | Eastern Michigan -2 v. Central Michigan | Top | 30-42 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
7* EMU/CMU MAC Game of the Week on Eastern Michigan -2 |
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11-07-17 | Bowling Green v. Buffalo -7.5 | Top | 28-38 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
7* Bowling Green/Buffalo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -7.5 |
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11-06-17 | Lions v. Packers +3 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
7* Lions/Packers NFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay +3 |