7* Cardinals/49ers NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Arizona -2

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals played in London two weeks ago.  They then had their bye last week.  Teams in this situation have been tremendous bets the first game back from their bye.  Teams returning from London off their bye are 9-0-1 ATS since 2015.  The 49ers are a mess right now with all of their injuries along the offensive line and receiver.  Joe Staley is out, and Trent Grown and Gary Gilliam are questionable.  Pierre Garcon is out for the season.  CJ Bethard never had a chance, and now they have Jimmy Garoppolo waiting in the wings.  Bethard gets thrown to the wolves one last time here Sunday.  Take Arizona.

6* Rams/Giants NFC *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles -5.5

The Key: The Los Angeles Rams played in London two weeks ago.  They then had their bye last week.  Teams in this situation have been tremendous bets the first game back from their bye.  Teams returning from London off their bye are 9-0-1 ATS since 2015. The Rams are the healthiest team in the NFL right now and could easily be 6-1 instead of 5-2.  The Giants have a laundry list of injuries and won't be competitive the rest of the way after their 1-6 start.  This is a complete mismatch ladies and gents.  Take Los Angeles.

6* Bucs/Saints NFC South *CA$H COW* on Tampa Bay +7

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs are playing with their season on the line today.  At 2-5, and with the Saints at 5-2, their season is essentially over if they lose this game.  They should be playing with a chip on their shoulder here.  The Bucs still have the talent to match the Saints.  And they are catching 7 points, which is a ton when you consider each of the last 6 meetings in this series have been decided by 7 points or less.  The Buccaneers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home.  Take Tampa Bay.

6* AAC Game of the Week on SMU +14.5

The Key: The SMU Mustangs are one of the best teams the UCF Knights have played this year.  It's time to fade UCF this week after they have opened 7-0 SU & 6-0 ATS.  They have yet to lose against the spread.  But now they're up against an SMU that can and will score on them.  The Mustangs average 41.5 PPG, including 48.6 PPG at home.  The Mustangs are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this year, winning by an average of 22.8 PPG.  Bets on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (SMU) - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 30-5 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Take SMU.

6* Mountain West Game of the Week on Nevada +20.5

The Key: The Boise State Broncos haven't covered a spread at home since 2015.  The Broncos are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Nevada has covered 3 in a row with a 3-point loss to Air Force and a 2-point loss to Colorado State, two of the better teams in the Mountain West.  And the Wolf Pack are coming off their bye week.  They can hang around here.  Take Nevada.

6* Ohio State/Iowa Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Iowa +18.5

The Key: This is a bad spot for Ohio State.  The Buckeyes came back from a 35-20 deficit in the 4th quarter to beat Penn State 39-38 and avenge their overtime loss last year that cost them the Big Ten title.  If they were ever going to come out flat, it would be this week in Iowa City.  Iowa has only lost 8 of its last 115 home games by more than one score, and 4 of the last 115 by more than 2 scores.  The Hawkeyes just have a knack for playing Top 5 teams tough in Iowa City.  We saw them upset Michigan as 21-point dogs last year, and they nearly upset Penn State as 13-point dogs earlier this season.  The Nittany Lions needed a TD on the final play of the game to beat them.  Take Iowa.

7* Big Ten Game of the Year on Michigan State +10

The Key: Penn State is a bad spot here.  They are deflated after blowing a big lead to lose to Ohio State 39-38 last week.  And after back-to-back emotional games against Michigan and Ohio State, they won't have much left in the tank here.  Michigan State only has one Big Ten loss and is still very much alive to win the conference.  I think the Spartans come to play today and pull off the upset.  The Spartans have outgained 7 of their 8 opponents this year and are one of the most improved teams in the country.  Penn State is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 3 seasons.  Michigan State is 7-0 ATS in home games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.  Take Michigan State.

6* Big 12 Game of the Week on Kansas +7.5

The Key: Both the Baylor Bears and Kansas Jayhawks have their best chance to get a Big 12 win this week because they play each other.  I think the Jayhawks at home have the better shot of getting that win, and we're getting 7.5 points with them.  They are coming off one of their best performances of the season.  They lost 20-30 to Kansas State as 25.5-point dogs and should have won that game.  They racked up 482 total yards on a good K-State defense, including 418 through the air.  Baylor is 2-10 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.  The Bears are 1-9 ATS off a home games over the last 2 years.  The Jayhawks are 9-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 34 or more points per game.  Take Kansas.

7* UCLA/Utah NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah -7

The Key: Josh Rosen has a hand injury and will be a game-time decision tonight.  I would like Utah at -7 whether or not he plays, but if he doesn't it would obviously he would be a huge bonus.  Rosen hasn't practiced all week.  The Utes are hungry for a victory after losing 4 straight against a brutal schedule of Stanford, USC, ASU and Oregon.  Playing in the friendly confines of Salt Lake City tonight should help them get back on track.  The Bruins are 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games and have been overvalued all year.  They don't play any defense, giving up 37.6 points per game overall, including 49.2 points per game on the road.  They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS on the road this year and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games overall.  Take Utah.

7* Bills/Jets AFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +3.5

The Key: I like backing underdogs with divisional revenge in mind.  The Jets lost to the Bills 21-12 on the road back in Week 1 in their first meeting.  But this has been a much better Jets team since then.  The Jets are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall while going 3-3 straight up and their 3 losses coming to the Pats by 7, Falcons by 5 and Dolphins by 3.  So they have been competitive in every game with a chance to win late.  And getting 3.5 points here is a nice value as this game could easily be decided by a field goal.  The Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  They are also 19-6 ATS in their last 25 home games off a home loss.  Give me New York.

6* Navy/Temple AAC *CA$H COW* on Temple +7.5

The Key: I think the situation really favors the Temple Owls here.  Temple just faced a triple-option team in Army last time out, giving up a late touchdown and losing 28-31 in OT on the road.  So they were well-versed in the option right now and had their bye last week to get even more ready for it.  The Owls have played much better of late and should be 3-0 in their last 3 games instead of 1-2, which is keeping them undervalued.  Temple outgained ECU by 236 yards in a 34-10 road win, outginaed UConn by 225 yards in a 24-28 home loss, and then outgained Army by 117 yards in that overtime defeat.  Navy has been outgained in 3 straight games. I think this Midshipmen team is much more vulnerable than most years.  They are 5-2, but 4 of those wins came by 10 points or less, so they haven't been blowing teams out.  Temple is 8-1 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.  The Owls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Temple.

7* Miami/Ohio MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +10

The Key: The Miami Ohio Redhawks were expected to contend for a MAC title this year after going 6-0 over their final 6 regular season games last year.  They brought back 17 starts from that team.  So their 3-5 start comes as a bit of a surprise, and it has them getting zero respect from the books right now.  Conversely, Ohio is coming off back-to-back blowout wins over Bowling Green and Kent State and getting a lot of love.  But this is a team that lost to Central Michigan 23-26 at home prior to those two wins against MAC bottom feeders.  A big reason for the Redhawks' struggles is that they have been without starting QB Gus Ragland, who is a game-time decision tonight and may return since they had extra time before this game after last playing on November 21st.  The Redhawks still have a shot at a bowl game and will be fighting tooth and nail to get back to one.  The Bobcats are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.  The Redhawks are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games.  Take Miami Ohio.

7* Broncos/Chiefs AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Kansas City -7

The Key: The Denver Broncos have lost their two road games a a combined 47-16 this season.  Those were to the Bills and Chargers.  Now they face their toughest road test of the season and the best team they have faced all year.  And they are banged up at receiver and along the offensive line.  They get a hungry Chiefs team coming off consecutive losses and on extra rest after playing last Thursday, and Andy Reid is the best in the business when given extra time to prepare.  Take Kansas City.

6* Steelers/Lions Sunday Night *BAILOUT* on Pittsburgh -3

The Key: The Detroit Lions are coming off a bye, which is keeping this line shorter than it should be.  But they have some key injuries still that the are dealing with along the offensive line and at receiver.  And I think that they are still overvalued due to their 3-1 start, but we've seen their true colors show in their last two games with a 24-27 home loss to the Panthers and a 38-52 road loss to the Saints.  But those games were bigger blowouts than the final scores as the Lions made late runs in both.  They trailed the Panthers 27-10 and the Saints 45-10.  The Steelers look like perhaps the best team in the NFL right now with their 19-13 road win over the Chiefs and their 29-14 home win over the Bengals.  They have one of the league's top defenses, and Le'Veon Bell cannot be stopped.  The Steelers are 9-1 ATS after going over the total in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* NFC Game of the Year on San Francisco 49ers +13

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after their 6-1 start to the season.  It's time to fade away in this flat spot for them off their big win over the Redskins on Monday Night football, which makes it a short week for them as well.  It's also time to back the 49ers off their 30-point loss to the Cowboys as the public perception of them is way down right now.  But they had lost 5 straight games by 3 points or fewer prior to that blowout defeat, so they are clearly capable of being competitive.  Bets on dogs is 10.5 or more points off a loss y 14 points or more against an opponent who scored 30 or more points last game are 26-4 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take San Francisco.

6* Mississippi State/Texas A&M SEC *CA$H COW* on Texas A&M +2.5

The Key: Wrong team favored here.  Texas A&M is coming off its bye week and will be ready for Mississippi State both from preparation and rest standpoints.  The Aggies played Alabama tougher than anyone this season, only losing 19-27 as 25-point home dogs.  Maybe even more impressive was the fact that they didn't have a letdown the next week and beat Florida 19-17 on the road.  Mississippi State's last two road games have resulted in 3-31 and 10-49 blowout losses at Georgia and Auburn, respectively.  College Station is still one of the tougher places to play in college football.  Texas A&M was favored by 10 at Mississippi State last year and lost outright 28-35.  So it's a revenge game, and now they are dogs at home this time around AND off a bye.  The price is too good to pass up.  Take Texas A&M.

7* NCAAF Blowout Game of the Year on Florida Atlantic -6.5

The Key: The Florida Atlantic Owls are absolutely rolling right now.  And the markets haven't caught up to them yet.  They still haven't caught up to them this week.  They have gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.  They get quick-strike touchdowns that their opponents can't get.  It's an FAU team that has hung 58 and 69 points in their last two games.  Western Kentucky has been getting too much respect in the betting markets all season with a 1-5-1 ATS record.  They have some awful performances against bad teams, including their 35-31 win over Old Dominion, the same ODU team that FAU waxed 58-28.  Take Florida Atlantic.

6* FSU/Boston College NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Florida State -5

The Key: This line before the season would have been Florida State favored by roughly 21.  I think the price is right to pull the trigger now on the Seminoles as only 5-point favorites.  They have played one of the toughest schedules in the country which is why they are 2-4.  And if they are going to make a bowl game, they need this win over Boston College.  This is a prideful program and Jimbo Fisher does not want the bowl streak to come to an end.  Look for the Seminoles to handle their business tonight.  The Seminoles are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games after allowing 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game.  Take Florida State.

7* Dolphins/Ravens AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami Dolphins +3

The Key: The Miami Dolphins are the better team here over the Baltimore Ravens.  The Dolphins have managed a 4-2 record despite getting nothing out of their offense this season.  Well, that was until the 4th quarter last week when Matt Moore replaced an injured Jay Cutler and led the Dolphins to 17 points in the final period to beat the Jets 31-28.  Now Moore gets the nod again, and the offense will open up with him at the helm.  The Dolphins already have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and they'll be up against one of the worst offenses in the Ravens.  The cluster injuries for the Ravens right now just aren't going to allow them to be competitive moving forward.  Take Miami.

6* Thursday MAC *CA$H COW* on Eastern Michigan +7.5

The Key: The Eastern Michigan Eagles are just 2-5 this season, but they have now lost 5 straight games by 7 points or less.  And dating back to last year, their last 7 losses have come by 7 points or fewer.  So we are getting a nice price with them here as +7.5 dogs to Northern Illinois.  The last 5 losses have all come to quality teams in Ohio, Kentucky, Toledo, Army and Western Michigan.  If they can play with those 5 teams, they can hang with Northern Illinois this week.  They will also be out to avenge a 31-24 home loss to NIU last year after they blew a 21-0 halftime lead.  We'll get a big effort from the Eagles in this game.  The Eagles are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games, and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The road team is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Take Eastern Michigan.

7* Redskins/Eagles NFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia -5

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles are the best team in the NFC at 5-1 right now.  They have a front seven defensively that is one of the best in the NFL, and their offense has really taken off this year with Carson Wentz.  I think Wentz has a big game against a Redskins defense that will be missing Josh Norman and Jonathan Allen, and possibly another corner in Breeland.  The Eagles beat the Redskins already 30-17 on the road and outgained them 356 to 254 in that game.  Now they are only laying 5 at home in the rematch.  I think they win by a TD or more with ease.  Take Philadelphia.

6* Broncos/Chargers AFC West *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles +1

The Key: The Chargers have won 2 straight and will be looking for revenge after a 3-point loss to the Broncos in Week 1.  They should have a great chance of getting revenge here considering they are relatively healthy, while the Broncos are dealing with several injuries.  The top 2 receivers are hurt in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, with Sanders out Sunday.  Trevor Siemian is playing despite a bum shoulder, and he will be missing his starting offensive tackle and his backup tackle.  I just don't see where the points are going to come from for the Broncos in this game given the current state of their offense up against an underrated Chargers defense.  Take Los Angeles.

6* Seahawks/Giants NFC *CA$H COW* on Seattle -3.5

The Key: Money has been pouring in on the Giants all week.  But it's an overreaction from their 23-10 win in Denver on Sunday Night Football.  The Broncos took them lightly and had a ton of injuries in that game that led to the result.  But the Giants weren't the better team.  They got all the breaks, including a defensive touchdown, and they were actually outgained by 146 yards by the Broncos.  Now they have to face a rested Seahawks team coming off their bye, and I think the Giants' deficiencies will really show this week.  The Seahawks own the Giants, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings while winning by an average of 18.3 points per game.  Take Seattle.

6* Fresno/SDSU Mountain West *BAILOUT* on Fresno State +7.5

The Key: The Fresno State Bulldogs have gone 6-0 against the spread this season.  They have only lost to Alabama and Washington, two of the best teams in the land.  There's a good reason this line has dropped from +10.5 down to +7.5, but I still think there's plenty of value on backing the Bulldogs here in a game they can win outright.  San Diego State players were quoted as saying that they had the goal of going undefeated coming into the season.  But that goal was ended last week with a 14-31 home loss to Boise State.  It's the type of dream-crushing loss that is tough to recover from the next week.  I expect SDSU to be flat in this game here.  The Bulldogs are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.   The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. teams with winning records.  Take Fresno State.

6* WVU/Baylor Big 12 *CA$H COW* on West Virginia -9

The Key: If Baylor was going to show improvement, it would have been last week when they were coming off their bye week, giving Matt Rhule two weeks to tweak some things.  But they fell flat on their faces once again to drop to 0-6 on the season.  They lost 16-59 at Oklahoma State, giving up 747 total yards to the Cowboys.  Now they have to face one of the best offenses in the country in West Virginia this week.  This number is short because WVU can name its number Saturday.  The Mountaineers are scoring 44.2 points per game and averaging 548 total yards per game despite playing a pretty difficult schedule against the likes of VA Tech, TCU and Texas Tech thus far.  Baylor is only 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games as a home dog of 7.5 to 14 points. WVU is 12-2 ATS in its last 12 road games when playing a team that is winning 25% or less of its games.  The Mountaineers are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take West Virginia.

7* Conference USA Game of the year on Louisiana Tech -2.5

The Key: The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are in a good spot here coming off their bye week.  They are just 3-3 this season, but they have suffered two 1-point losses this season both on the road at South Carolina (17-16) and UAB (22-23).  But this team has been a great bet at home through the years.  LA Tech is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games off an upset loss as a favorite.  The Bulldogs are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 home games off two straight unders.  Take Louisiana Tech.

6* WMU/EMU MAC *CA$H COW* on Eastern Michigan +3

The Key: I faded Western Michigan last week by backing Akron as my MAC Game of the Year, and the Zips delivered an outright 14-13 win as 13-point dogs.  And that game was played on Sunday due to getting postponed for weather on Saturday.  That means Western Michigan is working on a short week.  The Broncos just aren't anywhere near as good as they were last year with PJ Fleck, Zach Terrell and Corey Davis, but they are still getting treated like that team by oddsmakers.  Eastern Michigan went to a bowl last year and basically returned everyone.  But they have lost 4 straight games by 7, 4, 5 and 1 point drop to 2-4 on the season.  That 2-4 record has them getting no love from oddsmakers despite the fact that they've gone 5-1 against the spread.  Now they take out their frustration on the vulnerable Broncos today.  The Eagles are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Eastern Michigan.

7* Chiefs/Raiders AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Oakland +3

The Key: The Oakland Raiders' season is on the line tonight.  They have dropped 4 straight to fall to 2-4 on the season.  They cannot afford to drop to 2-5 with another loss here or they'll be done.  They Chiefs are vulnerable right now as this is a tough scheduling spot.  They played on Monday night two weeks ago, and now have to play on Thursday night.  That means they will be playing their 3rd game in 11 days, which is as tough a spot as it gets in the NFL.  The Chiefs have allowed at least 100 rushing yards in all 6 games this year.  Look for a heavy dose of Marshawn Lynch from the Raiders here, which will be the key to victory for them.  Take Oakland.

6* Lafayette/Arkansas State Sun Belt *CA$H COW* on Louisiana-Lafayette +13

The Key: This scheduling spot favors the LA-Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns.  They have had a full week to get ready for this game after playing last Thursday.  Arkansas State is on a short week after playing on Saturday.  And I think these teams are a lot more evenly-matched than this 13-point spread suggests.  Plus, Lafayette has had Arkansas State's number in recent years.  The Rajin' Cajuns are 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.  Take Lafayette.

7* Colts/Titans AFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Tennessee -6.5

The Key: The Tennessee Titans are going to be hungry tonight following two straight losses.  But an asterisk has to get put on those losses because Marcus Mariota got hurt against the Texans two weeks ago, and he didn't play against Miami last week.  Now Mariota makes his return and will lead the Titans to a blowout victory over the hapless Colts.  The only two wins for the Colts this season came at home against the 0-6 Cleveland Browns and the 0-6 San Francisco 49ers by a combined 6 points.  In their 2 road games this year, the Colts lost 9-46 to the Rams and 18-46 to the Seahawks.  Adding to the Titans' hunger here is the fact that they have lost 11 straight meetings with the Colts, but most of those were with Andrew Luck at QB.  Take Tennessee.

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Los Angeles Rams +2.5

The Key: The Los Angeles Rams are the better team in this matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars.  The Rams have put up legit numbers this season outgaining teams by 40 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play.  The Jaguars haven't as they are dead even in yardage differential and dead even in yards per play.  The Jaguars have been one of the most lucky teams in the NFL to force 15 turnovers and score an insane amount of points off those turnovers.  They are +11 in turnover differential this season, which is the only reason they are 3-2.  I don't like backing teams that must win the turnover battle to win the game, which is almost always the case for the Jaguars because they aren't very good, especially on offense.  West Coast teams traveling East is usually a tough spot for them, but not here because this is a 4:05 EST start time.  Take Los Angeles.

7* NFC Game of the Month on Tampa Bay Bucs -1.5

The Key: Teams coming off Thursday NFL games are a perfect 8-0 against the spread this season.  The Bucs have had extra time to prepare now after losing 14-19 at home to the Patriots last Thursday in a game they easily could have won.  They get some key players back from injury on defense in Lavonte David and TJ Ward.  Now they get to face an Arizona Cardinals team that is coming off a 7-34 loss at Philadelphia and could easily be 0-5 this year if not for overtime wins against the Colts and 49ers.  The Cardinals have mass offensive line injuries right now and can't keep Carson Palmer upright.  Trading for Adrian Peterson won't solve their problems in the immediate future, and I think they're being overvalued because of that trade.  The Cardinals are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games overall.  Take Tampa Bay.

6* NFL Blowout Game of the Week on New Orleans Saints -4

The Key: The New Orleans Saints are off a bye and off two straight wins by a combined 54-13 final.  Their 34-13 win at Carolina looks mighty impressive right now.  The Lions haven't been as good as their 3-2 record statistically as they have benefited from a +8 turnover differential.  But the Lions have key injuries on their offensive line and on defense, and Matthew Stafford is starting to feel the effects of being sacked 12 times over the last 2 weeks.  He is hobbled coming into this one and won't be 100%.  The Saints are 8-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons.  Take New Orleans.

7* MAC Game of the Year on Akron +13

The Key: I'm going to fade Western Michigan in this spot Sunday.  The Broncos are coming off a 7-overtime 71-68 victory at Buffalo.  I'm just not sure what they have left in the tank now, and not only do they have to win, but they have to win by 2 touchdowns to cover the spread against a game Akron team.  This is an Akron team that has been competitive in every game outside of its Power 5 opponents in Penn State and Iowa State.  But WMU didn't fare well in its two Power 5 games either against USC and Michigan State.  I really think this game will be closer than the oddsmakers expect.  The Zips are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Akron.

6* Miami/GA Tech ACC *CA$H COW* on Georgia Tech +6.5

The Key: The situation couldn't be better for Georgia Tech here.  The Yellow Jackets are coming off their bye week.  They should be 4-0 but they lost 41-42 to Tennessee despite outgaining them by 300 yards.  They have outgained their 4 opponents by a combined 877 yards this season, or by an average of 219 yards per game.  TaQuon Marshall may be the best QB in Georgia Tech history when it's all said and done.  He has rushed for 523 yards and 9 scores, while averaging 10.1 yards per attempt passing and 4 touchdowns with 0 interceptions.  Miami is primed for a letdown following a huge last-second 24-20 win at Florida State to end its losing streak to the Seminoles.  Not to mention the Hurricanes lost their two best playmakers in that game in RB Mark Walton and WR Ahmmon Richards.  Walton is out for the season, while Richards is questionable with a hamstring injury.  Paul Johnson is 6-0 ATS in road games off 4 or more consecutive ATS wins as the coach of Georgia Tech.  Mark Richt is 2-14 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a 75% or better win percentage in all games as a head coach.  Take Georgia Tech.

7* Eagles/Panthers NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Carolina -3

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles are going to be without two key pieces on offense.  Running back Wendell Smallwood and tackle Lane Johnson are both out.  You wouldn't think a tackle would make that much of a difference, but in Johnson's case it has.  Carson Wentz is 9-2 in games that Johnson plays, and 2-8 in games that he does not.  He has thrown 20 touchdowns and 5 interceptions with Johnson, and 6 touchdowns compared to 12 interceptions without him.  I love the way the Panthers are playing right now with back-to-back huge road wins over the Patriots and Lions.  Cam Newton finally looks fully healthy, and he has found some new favorite targets in Devin Funchess and Ed Dickson.  Funchess has 3 TD receptions in his last 2 games, and Dickson had 175 receiving yards against the Lions.  Ron Rivera is 32-13 ATS off a road game as the coach of Carolina.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Take Carolina.

6* Texas State/Lafayette Sun Belt *CA$H COW* on Lafayette -13.5

The Key: The Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns should blow out Texas State like they usually do.  Lafayette is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last 4 meetings with Texas State, winning all 4 games by 22 or more points.  Texas State is once again one of the worst teams in college football this season.  The Bobcats are 1-5 this season.  They have lost by 30, 35 and 18 points in their last 3 games coming in.  Their offense has been terrible in averaging just 14.5 points per game.  Their defense hasn't been any better, giving up 33.7 points per game.  Bets on home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with a winning percentage between 40-49% on the season, in conference games are 37-13 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Lafayette.

7* Vikings/Bears NFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago +4

The Key: The Chicago Bears have won 8 of their last 9 home meetings with the Minnesota Vikings.  They are 2-0 ATS at home this season, nearly beating both the Falcons and Steelers.  The Vikings are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games.  The Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.  Teams coming off Thursday games are 7-0 ATS this season.  The Bears have had extra time to get Mitch Trubisky ready for his first start after playing last Thursday.  Take Chicago.

7* NFL Sunday Night Game of the Year on Houston Texans +1

The Key: Deshaun Watson is 2-1 as the starting quarterback of the Texans.  They could be 3-0 as their only loss came on the road at New England 33-36 as the Patriots scored a touchdown in the closing seconds to win.  The Texans bounced back with the most impressive performance of Week 4, winning 57-14 at home against the Texans.  Watson accounted for 5 total touchdowns, and the defense held the Titans to just 195 total yards while forcing 5 turnovers.  Now the Texans still get no love from the books as home dogs here to the Chiefs.  It's because the Chiefs are overvalued right now due to their 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start, which included their miracle cover on Monday Night Football against the Redskins.  Now the Chiefs are on a short week and playing their 2nd straight National TV game.  The spot favors the Texans here.  Kansas City is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games after gaining 6 or more yards per play in 4 consecutive games.  Take Houston.

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Cleveland Browns +1

The Key: The Jets, Colts and Browns are the 3 worst teams in the NFL and it's very close between all 3 power-ratings wise.  The Browns were favored at Indianapolis in Week 3, and now they're home underdogs to  the Jets in Week 5.  The Jets were 6.5-point home dogs to the Dolphins, and 3.5-point home dogs to the Jaguars.  Now they're favored on the road here after winning those 2 games.  Those games were terrible travel spots for the Dolphins and Jaguars.  The Dolphins were on the road for 5 straight weeks since the preseason and were coming back from a West Coast trip to San Diego.  The Jaguars were coming back from London.  The line value is clearly with the home dog Browns here.  They'll be desperate to get their first win, and I think they get it done.  The Jets are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 following 2 consecutive home wins.  New York is 5-20 ATS in its last 25 after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in its previous game.  Bets on any team with a poor offensive (14-18 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG), after a loss by 21 or more points are 23-5 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Cleveland.

6* NFL Blowout Game of the Week on Cincinnati Bengals -3

The Key: The Cincinnati Bengals are just 1-3 on the season, while the Buffalo Bills are 3-1.  So the Bengals are undervalued right now, while the Bills are getting more love than they should be.  The Bengals have played well the last two weeks against the Packers and Browns, and the switch to offensive coordinator Bill Lazor has made a huge difference.  Andy Dalton has completed 81% of his passes the last 2 weeks and has thrown 6 touchdowns against zero interceptions.  The Bills were fortunate to beat the Falcons last week because Atlanta lost its top 2 receivers in Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu, and they got a fluke defensive TD that should have been called an incomplete pass instead of a fumble by Matt Ryan.  The true colors of these two teams will show this week as the Bengals are a playoff contender, while the Bills are frauds.  And the Bengals have a bye next week so they want to go into it feeling good about the outlook of the rest of the season.  Bets on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or fewer turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers are 36-13 ATS since 1983.  Take Cincinnati.

The Key: The Cincinnati Bengals are just 1-3 on the season, while the Buffalo Bills are 3-1.  So the Bengals are undervalued right now, while the Bills are getting more love than they should be.  The Bengals have played well the last two weeks against the Packers and Browns, and the switch to offensive coordinator Bill Lazor has made a huge difference.  Andy Dalton has completed 81% of his passes the last 2 weeks and has thrown 6 touchdowns against zero interceptions.  The Bills were fortunate to beat the Falcons last week because Atlanta lost its top 2 receivers in Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu, and they got a fluke defensive TD that should have been called an incomplete pass instead of a fumble by Matt Ryan.  The true colors of these two teams will show this week as the Bengals are a playoff contender, while the Bills are frauds.  And the Bengals have a bye next week so they want to go into it feeling good about the outlook of the rest of the season.  Bets on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or fewer turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers are 36-13 ATS since 1983.  Take Cincinnati.

7* SEC Game of the Year on Texas A&M +27

The Key: Alabama has won its last two games by a combined score of 125-3.  It's safe to say the betting public is all over them now, which has inflated this number on the road against Texas A&M this week.  The Aggies could easily be 5-0 if not for blowing a massive lead against UCLA in the opener.  And Kevin Sumlin has found a way to be competitive against Nick Saban in recent years.  The Aggies have only lost by more than 19 points once in their last five meetings since 2012, and that was on the road.  Defensive coordinator John Chavis has turned this Aggies stop unit into a respectable one.  And what can keep Texas A&M in this game is a run defense that is only giving up 96 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry this season.  Bets on home dogs of 14.5 or more points off two or more consecutive wins, with a winning record on the season are 40-11 ATS since 1992.  Take Texas A&M.

6* Arkansas/South Carolina SEC *CA$H COW* on Arkansas -2.5

The Key: The South Carolina Gamecocks are frauds, and that has shown the last few weeks.  It also didn't help that they lost their best player in WR Deebo Samuel to a season-ending injury in Week 2.  The Gameocks were outgained by 258 yards in their opener against South Carolina yet somehow won the game.  Then they beat a bad Missouri team before falling at home to Kentucky 13-23.  They barely beat a bad LA Tech team 17-16 at home, and then lost 17-24 at Texas A&M last week while getting outgained by 117 yards.  Arkansas' only two losses have come against TCU and to Texas A&M in overtime.  I think the Razorbacks are the better team, and they only have to win by a field goal or more to cover this spread.  Arkansas is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 road games where the total is 45.5 to 49.  Bets against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after going under the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 26-6 ATS since 1992.  Take Arkansas.

6* AAC Game of the Week on Tulane -4.5

The Key: Good spot here for Tulane.  The Green Wave had a bye last week following a grueling stretch against Navy, Oklahoma and Army in consecutive weeks.  Now they'll be rejuvenated and they get to go up against a tired Tulsa team that hasn't had a bye and is coming off a grueling stretch of their own with Toledo, New Mexico and Navy in consecutive weeks.  This is the perfect matchup for a run-heavy Tulane team that averages 244 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry.  The Golden Hurricane allow 320 rushing yards and 6.7 per carry this season.  The Green Wave are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Tulsa is 6-20 ATS in its last 26 after being outgianed by 125 or more yards in 2 consecutive games.  The Green Wave are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.  Take Tulane.

7* Boise/BYU ESPN Friday Night Lights on BYU +9

The Key: The BYU Cougars are a prideful team and clearly aren't happy with their 1-4 start.  They gave the game away against Utah State by committing a ridiculous 7 turnovers last week.  They held Utah State to just 288 total yards to prove that their defense isn't broken.  Boise State just can't be laying this kind of price on the road tonight with what we've seen from them so far.  They lost their last game 23-42 at home to Virginia as 14-point favorites, failing to cover by 33 points.  The home team is 6-0 SU in the last 6 meetings.  The Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Boise State.  The Broncos are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Boise State is 0-7 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 of its last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.  Take BYU.

7* Louisville/NC State ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on NC State +4.5

The Key: Louisville is just a one-man show with Lamar Jackson.  He has a shaky offensive line, and now he's without his best receiver in Jaylen Smith due to a wrist injury.  That makes this a bad matchup against NC State, which has one of the more underrated defensive lines in the country and NFL talent up front.  Ryan Finley actually has a better QBR than Jackson this season.  Finley has thrown 9 touchdowns and zero interceptions on the year.  It's revenge time after NC State was blown out 13-54 at Louisville last season.  It was a clear flat spot for the Wolfpack after they had lost in overtime to Clemson 17-24 the previous week.  They didn't even show up.  They will Thursday night in front of a packed home crowd to claim their revenge.  Take NC State.

7* Redskins/Chiefs MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington Redskins +7

The Key: Don't look now but the Washington Redskins are 2-1 and dominating their opponents statistically.  They have outgained their opponents by 101.7 yards per game on the season.  Their defense is playing extremely well, giving up just 272 yards per game.  The Chiefs are getting too much respect due to their 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start.  But they have only outgained their opponents by 28.3 yards per game.  They haven't been as dominant as their record and point differential would suggest.  Kansas City is 1-14 ATS in its last 15 games after gaining 6 or more yards per play in 3 consecutive games.  Washington is 43-24 ATS in its last 67 games as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points.  The Redskins are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.  The Redskins are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Chiefs are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Take Washington.

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Philadelphia Eagles +2.5

The Key: The fact that the Chargers are taking money and moving this line up to -2.5 is mind-blowing.  The Eagles are clearly the better team in this matchup, and the Chargers simply find ways to lose.  The Chargers are just 9-26 straight up over the past 3 seasons combined, winning roughly 25% of their games.  They can't be favored here against an upstart Eagles team that is one of the most improved in the NFL this season.  Philip Rivers should have already retired as he looks old and slow and has lost his arm strength.  He threw three interceptions against the Chiefs last week and it could have been more.  The Eagles are 8-0 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons.  The Chargers have zero home-field advantage right now as the LA fans just aren't into them, especially after their 0-3 start.  Los Angeles is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 home games. The Chargers are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  Take Philadelphia.

7* NFC West Game of the Year on San Francisco 49ers +7

The Key: The San Francisco 49ers have been very impressive in their last two games.  They only lost by a field goal in Seattle as two-touchdown dogs, and they should have beaten the Rams are 3-point dogs in a 2-point loss last Thursday.  And that's key because now the 49ers have extra rest and prep time to get ready for the Cardinals this week.  The Cardinals have to work on a short week and try and recover from their 17-28 loss to the Cowboys on Monday Night Football.  I do not think the 49ers should be catching a touchdown given this favorable situation for them.  Arizona is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games overall.  San Francisco is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 meetings in Arizona.  Take San Francisco.

6* Titans/Texans AFC South *CA$H COW* on Houston +3

The Key: Deshaun Watson led the Texans to a win in Cincinnati and a near-win in New England in his first two NFL starts.  If that's not impressive, I don't know what is.  This guy just isn't getting the love he deserves from oddsmakers as the Texans are now a home dog to the Titans.  Now Watson will have another healthy weapon back in Will Fuller, who is expected to make his season debut.  Having Fuller, DeAndre Hopkins and Bruce Ellington gives the Texans one of the most underrated receiving corps in the league.  The Titans are in a tough spot after a physical game against the Seahawks last week.  And after beating Seattle, it's certainly a bit of a letdown spot for them here.  Teams have not done well the week after facing Seattle over the past decade.  The Texans have won 8 of their last 10 meetings with the Titans, and they are a perfect 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home meetings.  Take Houston.

7* Mountain West Game of the Year on Fresno State -9

The Key: I think the Fresno State Bulldogs are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They have been undervalued in the markets, going 3-0 ATS in their 3 games this season.  They won 66-0 over Incarnate Ward, then had to play Alabama and Washington in back-to-back weeks.  So their bye week came at the perfect time last week, and now they'll be fresh and ready to go in their Mountain West opener.  Nevada is clearly not any good this season, going 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS.  They lost at home to Idaho State as a 32.5-point favorite, then were punked 7-45 at Washington State the last two weeks.  The Wolf Pack come in on normal rest and won't be nearly as fresh as Fresno.  Jeff Tedford is one of the best offensive minds in college football, so look for Fresno to score at will here against this suspect Nevada defense.  Fresno is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games.  The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games.  Take Fresno State.

6* Clemson/VA Tech ACC Game of the Week on Virginia Tech +7.5

The Key: Virginia Tech showed it could play with eventual national champion Clemson in a 35-42 loss last year in the ACC Championship Game on a neutral field.  Now they get their shot at revenge on the Tigers at home in Blacksburg with ESPN College Game Day on site.  It's safe to say it's going to be a madhouse.  I fully expect the Hokies to pull the upset, but we'll take the 7.5 points just in case.  Clemson was actually tied 7-7 with Boston College at home last week as 33-point favorites, so they are vulnerable.  The Hokies are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. The Hokies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Virginia Tech.

6* MAC Game of the Week on Akron -2.5

The Key: I think Akron is still one of the better teams in the MAC.  But they are flying under the radar because of their 1-3 start.  That's solely due to playing a brutal schedule with games at Penn State and Troy, and a home game against Iowa State.  They were double-digit dogs in all three games.  The blew out Arkansas-Pine Bluff 52-33 in between.  Bowling Green is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS and not only one of the worst teams in the MAC, but one of the worst in the country.  They lost by 42 at Northwestern, and even lost at home to FCS foe South Dakota.  Bowling Green is 0-7 ATS off a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.  The Falcons are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 September games.  Take Akron.

6* Miami/Notre Dame Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Miami +21.5

The Key: Off a big win at Michigan State last week, and with UNC on deck, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish could be in a flat spot here.  And now they're up against a pesky Miami Ohio team that will fight them for four quarters.  Miami won their final 6 games last year and easily could be 4-0 this year.  They lost 26-31 at Marshall despite outgaining them by 162 yards.  They also lost 17-21 to Cincinnati and blew a big lead in the 4th quarter.  Notre Dame was outgained by 141 yards by Michigan State last week as that 38-18 final couldn't have been more misleading.  The Redhawks are 9-2 ATS as a dog over the last 2 seasons.  The Redhawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.  The Fighting Irish are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS win.  Take Miami.

6* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Week on Eastern Michigan +14.5

The Key: The Kentucky Wildcats are not in a good state of mind right now after blowing yet another late lead and losing to Florida, 28-27 last week.  They have now lost 31 straight to the Gators.  Now they have to step back out of conference and try and get motivated to play a MAC team, and I don't believe they will be.  They only beat Eastern Kentucky 27-16 earlier this season as 33-point favorites.  They have yet to win any game by more than 11 points this season.  Now they're up against a game Eastern Michigan squad that made a bowl last year and returned 18 starters.  EMU already upset Rutgers on the road, too.  They can hang with Kentucky here.  The Eagles are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games.  The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.  Take Kentucky.

7* Miami/Duke ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Duke +7

The Key: Duke has been grossly underrated to start the season. The Blue Devils are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS, winning all four games by double-digits over NC Central (60-7), Northwestern (41-17), Baylor (34-20) and UNC (27-17).  I think they continue being underrated here as 7-point home dogs to Miami.  The Blue Devils have played the Hurricanes tough at home, not losing once by more than 7 points in their last 3 home meetings.  Take Duke.

7* Bears/Packers NFC North Game of the Month on Green Bay -7

The Key: The Green Bay Packers have won 12 of their last 14 meetings with the Chicago Bears.  They have also gone 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  They won 26-10 at home over the Bears last year.  The QB edge for the Packers here is worth at least 7 points.  If Aaron Rodgers and the Packers get up 7 or more, the Bears won't be able to come back because Matt Glennon has been terrible, and he has the worst set of receivers in the NFL.  The Bears can run the ball, but that's not going to work if they get behind.  I think the Packers are by far the safer side here.  Hanging with the Steelers and Packers in back-to-back games is just too much to ask for Chicago.  Take Green Bay.

7* Cowboys/Cardinals NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Arizona +3.5

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals have gone on the road the first two weeks and are 1-1.  There's no shame in that.  Now it's their home opener on the Monday night stage, and the Cardinals are primed for their best performance of the season.  Dallas has a ton of injuries in the secondary, and the Cardinals' strength is their passing attack, so Carson Palmer is primed for a big game here.  Trevor Siemian lit up Dallas' secondary last week, and he's one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL.  The Cowboys lost that game 17-42.  The Cardinals have one of the best defenses in the NFL after finishing #2 in total defense last year.  They will be able to slow down Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot here Monday.  Dogs are 12-3 ATS so far in Week 3, and I think this is another live home dog here tonight.  Bruce Arians is 6-0 ATS as a home dog of 3 points or less as the coach of Arizona.  Arians is 7-0 ATS against NFC East teams as the coach of the Cardinals.  Take Arizona.

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Buffalo Bills +3.5

The Key: The betting public is all over the Denver Broncos in this game.  They are coming off the most impressive win over the week in Week 2 with a 42-17 victory over the Cowboys.  They have opened 2-0 at home, but now they are going on the road for the first time.  And the Broncos have a massive game against Oakland on deck next week.  This is the classic sandwich spot.  The Bills have one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL, which makes this a good matchup for them because the Broncos had the 28th-ranked run defense last year.  The Bills have an elite defense that can keep them in this game.  They are only giving up 10.5 points, 234 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play.  Take Buffalo.

7* AFC Game of the Month on Houston Texans +14

The Key: The New England Patriots have too many injuries right now to be favored by 14 over the Houston Texans.  They have a handful of skill players on offense who are banged up, and the injuries on defense have led to the Patriots giving up 31 points, 483 yards per game and 7.8 yards per play.  Their defense was terrible in the preaseson too.  I think Deshaun Watson can make enough plays to keep this game close, while the Texans' defense remains one of the elite units in the league.  Plus Watson gets some key weapons back this week in TE Ryan Griffin and WR Bruce Ellington.  Also CB Jonathan Joseph is expected to return from injury.  Take Houston.