7* Redskins/Eagles NFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia -6 

The Key: The Eagles are in true must-win mode here.  They can’t lose this game because they’d be 5-7 and two games back of the 7-5 Cowboys with a head-to-head loss to them already, so essentially three games back.  The Redskins could afford a loss and still recover.  The Eagles can’t.  And I like the momentum the Eagles have from coming from 19-3 down to beat the Giants last week, 25-22.  Now they should be able to win by a touchdown or more against a banged-up Redskins team playing with a backup QB.  The injuries have taken their toll on the Redskins.  They are 1-3 in their last 4 games overall and their lone win against the Bucs was a fluke.  The Bucs had 501 total yards but managed just 3 points.  Figure that one out.  Bets on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off a game where they committed non turnovers against an opponent that had a -3 turnover margin or worse last game are 25-6 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Philadelphia. 

6* NFL Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Atlanta Falcons -2.5 

The Key: The Falcons come in on extra rest having played last Thursday.  They had their chances to beat the Saints on the road but squandered several opportunities with 4 turnovers, including 3 deep in New Orleans territory.  But they’re back home and rested this week and should be primed for a big performance against the Ravens.  This is a Ravens team that is getting too much love for wins over the Bengals and Raiders in consecutive weeks at home.  But now they are back on the road where they are 2-3 this season.  The Ravens are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a win by more than 14 points.  Take Atlanta. 

6* AFC Game of the Day on Cincinnati Bengals +4.5 

The Key: The Bengals are rejuvenated now with Jeff Driskel replacing Andy Dalton at quarterback.  They had a huge second half against the Browns last week with Driskel under center.  And now he gets another weapon in his arsenal this week with the much-anticipated return of AJ Green.  The Broncos are getting too much respect from the books after their improbable wins over the Chargers and Steelers as underdogs the last 2 weeks.  Now they’re being asked to go on the road and win by a margin as 4.5-point favorites.  This is not their preferred role.  These are two 5-6 teams fighting to stay alive for the playoffs, and we’re getting the home team at an excellent price.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Take Cincinnati. 

6* Clemson/Pitt ACC *CA$H COW* on Pittsburgh +28 

The Key: The Pitt Panthers pulled the 43-42 upset over Clemson back in 2016 as 21.5-point underdogs.  They know what it takes to hang with this team.  And they are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall, so oddsmakers have failed to give them the respect they deserve here down the stretch.  It’s happening again here Saturday as they are 28-point underdogs to the Tigers.  Dano Swinney is only 3-12 ATS as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points as the coach of Clemson.  This is the spot that the Tigers have failed to cover time and time again when the expectations are too high.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* Alabama/Georgia SEC Game of the Year on Georgia +12 

The Key: Georgia wants to avenge its 26-23 (OT) loss to Alabama in the championship game last year.  This is the opportunity they’ve waited a year for, and I expect them to take advantage.  They are the team best equipped to beat Alabama in the country.  They have an elite defense and an experienced offense with yet another elite running game, plus Jake Fromm calling the shots at quarterback.  Bets on neutral field underdogs who average 200 or more rushing yards per game after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games are 24-4 ATS since 1992.  Take Georgia. 

7* NIU/Buffalo NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Buffalo -3 

The Key: I believe Buffalo to be the better of these two teams, and I don’t really even think it’s close.  While NIU has the better defense, they don’t have the offense that can keep up with Buffalo.  The Bulls score 35.2 PPG this season behind a balanced attack with 200 rushing yards and 219 passing yards per game.  And they have a pretty good defense of their own giving up 24.2 PPG.  NIU averages a putrid 19.9 PPG and 318 YPG.  The Huskies give up 20.9 PPG, so they have a good defense, but they are actually getting outscored and outgained on the season.  They were fortunate to make the MAC Championship to say the least as the MAC West was down this season.  The Huskies are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as a neutral field underdog.  Buffalo is 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS against MAC opponents this season.  They are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 conference games dating back to last season.  The Bulls are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games overall.  Take Buffalo. 

7* Saints/Cowboys NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas +8 

The Key: The Saints are doing something that is rarely seen in the NFL.  They come in 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  But now the love for the Saints is getting to be too much as they’re being asked to lay more than a touchdown on the road here against the Cowboys.  And this is a Cowboys team that has played much better since trading for Amari Cooper.  They have won and covered 3 straight coming in.  Their offense is good enough to hang with the Saints, and they have the 3rd-best scoring defense in the NFL giving up only 19.4 PPG.  The Saints are not good on defense, and the Cowboys are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 against teams who give up 350 or more yards per game.  Take Dallas. 

7* Titans/Texans AFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston -4 

The Key: The home team has won and covered 5 straight in this series between the Titans and Texans.  The Texans have won each of their last 6 meetings with the Titans all by 6 points or more.  And those 6 wins have come by an incredible 20 points per game.  With the Texans looking to avenge their 17-20 loss at Tennessee in their first meeting this season, I think they’ll have no problem covering this 4-point spread at home tonight.  And Marcus Mariota is far from 100% as he was questionable all week leading up to this game.  Take Houston. 

7* Packers/Vikings Sunday Night Game of the Year on Minnesota -3 

The Key: The Vikings are as healthy as they’ve been since Week 1.  The Packers have several key players questionable or out for this game.  And the Vikings are sure to be hungry off a loss to the Bears last week. The Packers have lost 3 of their last 4 coming in and just aren’t a very good team.  Aaron Rodgers lacks weapons because of all the injuries, and the defense remains poor.  The Packers have the biggest home/road split of any team in the NFL over the past decade.  They are great at home but terrible on the road.  The Packers are 0-5 SU & 1-3-1 ATS on the road this season, getting outscored by 8.2 PPG.  No team has been as good as the Vikings at home over the past several season.  Minnesota is 36-16-2 ATS in its last 54 home games.  Mike Zimmer is 27-11 ATS in home games as the coach of Minnesota.  This line of -3 seems very cheap Sunday night.  Take Minnesota. 

6* Giants/Eagles NFC East *CA$H COW* on New York +5.5 

The Key: Saquon Barkley guaranteed the Giants would win their final 8 games coming out of their bye.  And don’t look now, but they’re 2-0 since that guarantee with a realistic path to win the NFC East if they keep winning.  And now they face the Eagles, who are coming off back-to-back ugly losses to the Cowboys and Saints, including their 7-48 loss at New Orleans last week.  The Eagles are marred by injuries to several of their best players.  Their secondary is a mess, and even Eli Manning should be able to light it up.  I also like that this is a revenge game for the Giants after their 13-34 home loss to the Eagles earlier this season.  That was a very misleading final as the Giants actually outgained the Eagles 401 to 379 in that contest.  The Giants are 40-21 ATS in their last 61 road games off two or more consecutive wins.  Philadelphia is 0-10 ATS vs. teams who allow 6.0 or more yards per play over the last 3 years.  Take New York. 

6* Seahawks/Panthers NFC *CA$H COW* on Carolina -3 

The Key: The Carolina Panthers have had a huge home/road split this season.  They are just 1-4 on the road, but 5-0 at home.  And now they’re home here against the Seahawks Sunday.  I think we get a big effort from the Panthers off 2 consecutive road losses.  Players will have coach Ron Rivera’s back after his decision to go for a 2-point conversion to try and beat the Lions last week.  Rivera is 22-4 ATS off a road loss as the Panthers’ coach, including 9-1 ATS off an upset road loss.  Take Carolina. 

7* South Carolina/Clemson ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on South Carolina +26.5 

The Key: Clemson will make the four-team playoff no matter what happens in this game against South Carolina as long as they beat Pitt next week in the ACC Championship.  The Tigers are getting too much love now after going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  They did not cover as 29.5-point favorites against Duke last week in a 29-point win.  And now they are 26.5-point favorites against South Carolina, a team that is much better than Duke.  The Gamecocks have their best offense of the Will Muschamp era this season as they are scoring 32.8 PPG.  And they still have a solid defense.  They have what it takes to stay within 4 touchdowns of the Tigers.  The Gamecocks are 7-0 ATS in road games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.  South Carolina is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 road games overall.  The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.  Take South Carolina. 

6* Sun Belt Game of the Day on Georgia Southern -10.5 

The Key: Georgia Southern currently sits at 8-3 while having a tremendous season in the Sun Belt.  Two more wins and they can get to 10, which would be a huge accomplishment at the FBS level.  Georgia State has lost six straight while going 0-5-1 ATS in the process to drop to 2-9 SU & 2-8-1 ATS on the season.  This game is a matchup problem for Georgia State.  The Panthers have a horrible defense that gives up 37.6 PPG and 499 YPG on the season.  Their biggest weakness is against the run, where they give up 248 RYPG and 6.6 YPC.  Georgia Southern is a triple-option team that rushes for 259 RYPG and 5.2 YPC.  They will have their way on the ground against the Panthers today.  The Panthers are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  Take Georgia Southern. 

6* AAC Game of the Day on Navy +6.5 

The Key: Navy isn’t a team that’s going to quit.  The Midshipmen showed that the last two weeks as they gave UCF a run for their money in an 11-point loss as 23.5-point dogs, and they beat Tulsa 37-29 as 5.5-point favorites.  They should be able to stay within a touchdown of Tulane and possibly pull the upset today.  Tulane is not playing well, only beating ECU by 6 as 10.5-point favorites, and losing 17-48 to Houston as 7.5-point dogs the last two weeks.  They are choking away their chance at making a bowl for a second straight season.  Navy is 82-45 ATS in its last 127 road games.  The Midshipmen are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 road games after having lost 2 of their last 3 coming in.  The Green Wave are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games off a blowout loss by 21 points arm ore to a conference opponent.  Ken Niumatalolo is 22-12 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of Navy.  Take Navy. 

7* Washington/Wash State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Washington State -2 

The Key: This year just feels different.  I know Washington has owned Washington State in the Apple Cup, but this is the best Cougars team that Mike Leach has had yet.  And I think they’re ready to take that next step.  The Cougars are 10-1 SU & 10-1 ATS this season, getting overlooked all year.  Their only loss came early in the season by a field goal at USC.  Washington has been overvalued all season, going 8-3 SU & 2-9 ATS.  The Huskies are 0-6 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better this season.  Take Washington State. 

6* ECU/Cincinnati AAC *CA$H COW* on East Carolina +17 

The Key: Cincinnati is coming off its Super Bowl last week against UCF that decided the AAC East title.  After losing that game 13-38, I just can’t foresee the Bearcats playing well this week as a hangover is in effect.  And now they’ll be up against an ECU team that has proven it can play with anyone, especially now that freshman QB Holton Ahlers has taken over.  Ahlers has played the better part of 5 games this season, throwing for over 1,600 yards with 11 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions.  He has added 571 yards and 6 touchdowns on the ground, putting up monster numbers in only a handful of games this year. And he’ll make enough plays to keep the Pirates in this game Friday as well.  The Bearcats are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing 37 points or more.  Take East Carolina. 

7* Redskins/Cowboys NFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +7 

The Key: The Cowboys win two games on the road and all of a sudden they are laying 7 points at home to the Washington Redskins.  They haven’t been favored by 7 points or more in any game this season.  And the Cowboys are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite when playing on less than 6 days’ rest.  Colt McCoy is one of the best backups in the league and has even guided the Redskins to a win in Dallas previously.  Take Washington. 

6* Colorado State/Air Force MWC *CA$H COW* on Colorado State +14.5 

The Key: Both Air Force and Colorado State have fallen short of bowl eligibility this season.  So both teams are playing for pride, and I don’t see an advantage for either team in that department.  Both are coming off crushing losses, but I was way impressed with Colorado State’s 24-29 loss as 29.5-point underdogs to Utah State last week.  Utah State is one of the best teams in the country, and the Rams outgained them 506 to 310 for the game and really should have won.  The Rams average nearly 300 passing yards per game this season, and they should have their way with an Air Force defense that gives up 8.7 yards per attempt through the air this year.  Air Force is 1-8 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.  Take Colorado State. 

6* Titans/Colts AFC South *CA$H COW* on Indianapolis -1 

The Key: Andrew Luck is 9-0 SU & 8-0-1 ATS in in his last 9 meetings with the Titans.  He makes all the difference for this team.  And the Colts are flying under the radar right now.  They have won their last 3 games by a combined 49 points.  Now they catch the Titans in a tough spot off their win over the Patriots last week.  They are in line for a letdown here.  Take Indianapolis. 

6* Cowboys/Falcons NFC *CA$H COW* on Dallas +3.5 

The Key: The Cowboys got the statement win they needed with a 27-20 upset as 7.5-point road dogs at Philadelphia last week.  It gave them the confidence they needed to make a push for the NFC East title in the second half of the season.  And now they face a reeling Falcons team that just lost to the lowly Brown 16-28 last week.  The Cowboys have a much improved offense with Amari Cooper now, giving them the threat on the outside they have been missing.  The Cowboys should be able to do whatever they want to offensively against a Falcons defense that is yielding 28.2 PPG and 415 YPG.  They are giving up 5.2 yards per carry and 70.4% completions to opposing quarterbacks.  The Cowboys are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after gaining 400 or more yards in their last game.  The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. teams who allow 375 or more yards per game.  Take Dallas. 

7* NFC Game of the Month on New York Giants -1 

The Key: Odell Beckham Jr. and Saquon Barkley both stated that the Giants are going to win their remaining 8 games and salvage their season.  While I don’t believe them, I do think they’ll win this week against the Bucs.  And they won their first game back from the bye over the 49ers to start the streak.  It just shows that they aren’t quitting.  And it’s worth noting they played the toughest schedule in the NFL in the first half of the season.  It gets easier now, and it started with the 49ers and moves on to the Bucs this week.  Tampa Bay is 1-6 in its last 7 games overall.  The Bucs managed just 3 points in a 16-3 loss to an injury-ravaged Redskins team ripe for the picking.  Things are not good in Tampa Bay right now.  The Giants are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Bucs.  Take New York. 

6* UNLV/Hawaii Mountain West *BAILOUT* on Hawaii -6.5 

The Key: The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors are 6-5 this season.  But they need one more win for a bowl because they play 13 games, which requires 7 wins.  And they have a road game on deck next week against San Diego State.  So this will be Hawaii’s Super Bowl.  And they should be well prepared considering they had a bye last week to get ready for it.  UNLV played and won its Super Bowl last week in a 27-24 upset at San Diego State as 24-point dogs.  But San Diego State was looking ahead to its game with Fresno State this week to decide the division title.  And UNLV won’t show up at all this week against the Rainbow Warriors in my estimation.  UNLV is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 games off a road win against a conference opponent.  Take Hawaii. 

6* Sun Belt Game of the Day on UL-Lafayette -17 

The Key: Lafayette sits at 5-5 and one win away from bowl eligibility here as they host South Alabama.  They want to take care of business here on Senior Day and will be hungry to do so because they don’t want to try and have to win next week against red-hot Louisiana-Monroe on the road.  They should handle their business against South Alabama, which is 1-6 in its last 7 games overall with all 6 losses coming by 17 points or more.  The Jaguars are 0-5 on the road this season and losing by 32.6 PPG on average.  Lafayette is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home and scoring 45.2 PPG with 554 YPG.  Their offense is built to cover big spreads like this.  South Alabama is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games after having lost 6 or 7 of its last 8 games coming in.  The Jaguars are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games.  The Rajin’ Cajuns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  Take UL-Lafayette. 

6* Indiana/Michigan Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Indiana +28.5 

The Key: Michigan has its Super Bowl on deck against Ohio State.  I have to think the Wolverines will be looking past the Hoosiers and ahead to that game, which will decide the Big Ten East champion and possibly which team makes the four-team playoff.  Any lack of focus out of the Wolverines this week and it’s going to be tough to cover this 28.5-point spread.  Even if they show up it’s going to be tough because the Hoosiers are no pushovers.  They have yet to lose a game by more than 26 points despite playing a rugged Big Ten East schedule.  Jim Harbaugh is 0-6 ATS off a win by 35 points or more as the coach of the Wolverines.  Take Indiana. 

6* NCAAF Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Liberty +28 

The Key: Auburn has the Iron Bowl on deck against Alabama next week.  The Tigers just lost to Georgia last week.  This is a sandwich game for them.  They had a similar situation earlier this season when they only beat Southern Miss 24-13 at home as 27.5-point favorites.  Now they’re 28-point favorites against Liberty here, a Liberty team that has been competitive in almost every game this season.  Liberty is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games as a road dog of 21.5 or more points.  Take Liberty. 

7* Mountain West Game of the Month on Wyoming -2.5 

The Key: Wyoming has fought its way back into bowl contention at 4-6 on the season.  The Cowboys went on the road and beat Colorado State 34-21 and topped San Jose State 24-9 at home.  Then they had a bye last week to get ready for the stretch run, where now if they beat Air Force and New Mexico they will get to a bowl, which is very doable.  It starts with taking care of Air Force here, and they have the rest advantage because Air Force played New Mexico last week.  The Falcons only run the football as they average just 14 pass attempts per game.  That bodes well for Wyoming, which is giving up just 114 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season.  The Falcons are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 conference games, and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Cowboys are 14-3 ATS in the last 17 meetings, including 4-0 ATS in the last 4 home meetings.  Take Wyoming. 

7* Memphis/SMU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on SMU +9 

The Key: SMU can clinch a bowl berth with a win Friday night at home over Memphis.  Memphis has already clinched a bowl at 6-4.  It’s clear to me the hungrier team will be the home underdog Mustangs.  And they are fighting for a bowl and have been for weeks, going 3-1 in their last 4 games with their only loss coming to nationally ranked Cincinnati in overtime.  They upset Tulane as 9.5-point road dogs 27-23 and upset Houston 45-31 as 14-point home dogs.  And now they are catching too many points against Memphis.  The Tigers are just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS on the road this season, where their defense is giving up 42 PPG and 504 YPG.  SMU has topped 500 total yards in each of its last two games against Houston and UConn while averaging 53.5 PPG and should be able to move the ball at will.  Bets on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points who scored 42 or more points in 2 straight games coming in are 44-12 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take SMU. 

7* FAU/North Texas C-USA *HEAVY HITTER* on North Texas -3.5 

The Key: North Texas wants revenge from two losses to FAU last season.  They lost 69-31 in the regular season and 41-17 in the conference championship game.  But there’s no question the Mean Green have the better team in 2018, and it will show on the field Thursday night.  The Owls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.  The Mean Green are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 November games.  Take North Texas. 

6* Buffalo/Ohio MAC *CA$H COW* on Ohio -2.5 

The Key: Buffalo knows it can clinch the MAC East title with a win over Bowling Green next week.  They won’t be putting all their eggs into one basket here against Ohio because of it, knowing they have another shot to clinch next week if they should lose this game.  I think Ohio comes in determined after a tough 2-point loss to Miami Ohio last week with the safety being the difference.  Ohio has gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their previous 6 games before that one and were playing some great football.  Now they want to prove that they are the best team in the MAC East by beating Buffalo tonight, and keeping their hopes alive of winning the division.  The Bobcats are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this year and winning by 23.7 PPG on average.  Ohio is 10-1 SU in its last 11 home meetings with Buffalo.  The Bobcats are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 vs. good offensive teams that score 34 or more points per game.  Take Ohio. 

7* Giants/49ers NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco -3 

The Key: I know the 49ers aren’t going to quit.  They show up every week looking to win.  And it paid off last week with a 34-3 victory over the Oakland Raiders.  That coincided with Nick Mullens taking over for the terrible CJ Beathard at quarterback.  And Mullens has now earned another start after tossing 3 touchdown passes in the win.  The Giants are still going with Eli Manning.  He has started every game and the Giants are 1-7.  Their offense is about as inept as any in the league because of Eli and a terrible offensive line.  The 49ers have the better offense and the better defense, and they’re home on Monday Night Football.  I think the price is right to lay the field goal with them here.  The Giants are 1-9 ATS in all games with a line of +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.  The 49ers are 26-6 ATS in their last 32 MNF games.  Take San Francisco. 

6* Seahawks/Rams NFC West *CA$H COW* on Seattle +10 

The Key: Russell Wilson has never been a double-digit underdog in his career.  And he has only been a dog of 7.5 or more 3 times.  It’s no surprise that the Seahawks are 3-0 ATS in those 3 games.  I think the price is right to pull the trigger on the Seahawks here.  They just had their bye 2 weeks ago and came back from it with a 28-14 win at Detroit.  They should still be fresh.  The Rams haven’t had their bye yet and are starting to show signs of wearing down, especially defensively where they are allowing 27.3 PPG in their last 6 games overall.  And that’s why the Rams are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games.  Only one of those 6 games resulted in a double-digit win by the Rams.  The Rams are also 2-10 ATS vs. excellent passing teams who complete 64% of their passes or better over the last 3 seasons.  Their pass defense has been leaky, and Russell Wilson should be able to exploit it.  Take Seattle. 

6* Patriots/Titans AFC *CA$H COW* on Tennessee +7 

The Key: The Patriots have to be getting tired.  They haven’t had their bye yet and they are now overvalued after going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  They are being asked to lay a full touchdown on the road against the Titans today.  This is a Titans team that is fresh after having a bye 2 weeks ago.  And they came back with an impressive 28-14 road win at Dallas as 4-point underdogs last week.  They have a very good defense that is giving up only 17.6 PPG this season.  That gives them a chance to be competitive here against the Patriots.  And Marcus Mariota torched that Dallas secondary.  He should be able to find plenty of holes in a Patriots defense that is allowing 381 YPG this season.  The Titans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.  The Titans are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Tennessee. 

7* FSU/Notre Dame Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Florida State +17 

The Key: This line has hardly moved since it was announced that Ian Book was out at quarterback for Notre Dame.  Oddsmakers aren’t adjusting enough for his absence.  Brandon Wimbush will take his place, and he’s a terrible passer.  He’s completing just 55.3% of his passes this season compared to 74.5% for Book.  Wimbush has a 1/4 TD/INT ratio compared to the 15/4 mark for Book.  Wimbush is a running quarterback.  That plays right into Florida State’s hands.  The biggest strength of this entire FSU team is their run defense.  The Seminoles only give up 111 RYPG and 2.8 YPC!  That’s not what you would expect form a 4-5 team like them.  But this is the Super Bowl for the Seminoles and they’ll come to play tonight to try and knock off the unbeaten Fighting Irish.  The Seminoles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.  The Fighting Irish are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 November games.  All the pressure is on the Irish tonight.  Take Florida State. 

6* Oregon/Utah Pac-12 *CA$H COW* on Oregon +4.5 

The Key: Utah’s two best offensive players are out for this game.  QB Tyler Huntley is out with a broken collarbone, while star RB Zack Moss (1,092 yards, 11 TD, 6.1 YPC) is out with an ankle injury.  The Utes shouldn’t even be favored in this game tonight.  Justin Herbert and this Oregon offense will be the best unit on the field now.  Oregon has had Utah’s number, going 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  The Ducks won outright as underdogs each of the last 2 seasons, and they’ll do the same again here Saturday given the huge injuries for the Utes.  Bets against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who are coming off an upset loss as a road favorite of 7 or more, in weeks 10 through 13 are 35-9 ATS since 1992.  Take Oregon. 

6* Sun Belt Game of the Day on UL-Monroe -7 

The Key: The ULM Warhawks have reeled off 3 straight victories to get to 5-4 this season.  They can clinch bowl eligibility with a win Saturday and should be able to do so in blowout fashion against 2-7 South Alabama.  Few teams were more impressive than ULM last week.  They beat Georgia Southern 44-25 and outgained them by a ridiculous 357 yards in the process.  That was a one-loss GA Southern team at the time whose lone loss came to Clemson.  It was as impressive as any win in the Sun Belt this season.  Look for the Warhawks to keep rolling this weekend.  South Alabama is 1-14 ATS off a game where it committed one or fewer turnovers over the last 3 seasons.  Take UL-Monroe. 

6* Northwestern/Iowa Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Northwestern +10 

The Key: Underdogs are 9-0-1 ATS in Northwestern games this season.  The Wildcats have covered every time they’ve been a dog this season with one push.  And they are 5-1 in Big Ten play this season with wins over Michigan State, Wisconsin and Purdue.  They are a good team and they aren’t getting treated like it.  The Iowa Hawkeyes already have 3 conference losses and could suffer a hangover here off their two straight tough losses in the closing seconds to Purdue and Penn State.  Take Northwestern. 

6* Mississippi State/Alabama SEC *CA$H COW* on Mississippi State +24.5 

The Key: The Alabama Crimson Tide are prone to hangovers after big wins.  And this is the perfect spot for one after their huge win at LSU last week.  The Mississippi State Bulldogs have managed to stay within 25 points of Alabama in 11 of the past 14 meetings.  They have been competitive against what has been the most dominant football program ever over the past decade-plus.  Mississippi State certainly has the defense to be competitive this season, too.  The Bulldogs are yielding just 12.3 PPG this year.  They have been stout against the run and the pass.  Mobile QB Nick Fitzgerald should be able to do enough with his legs to put up enough points to stay within the number as well.  Take Mississippi State. 

7* Toledo/NIU MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Northern Illinois -3 

The Key: The Northern Illinois Huskies can basically wrap up to the MAC West title with a win tonight.  No question they’ll be motivated to get it done.  This has been one of the best teams in the MAC all season, and they should be able to handle Toledo by more than a field goal at home tonight.  NIU is 6-3 this season with its 3 losses coming to Utah, Iowa and Florida State.  The Huskies have handled their business in MAC play this year with a 5-0 conference record.  They also went on the road and upset BYU.  Toledo is still without starting QB Mitchell Guadagni.  Their backup has played well in his place, but against soft defenses, and he’s going to really get tested tonight against the best defense in the MAC.  The Huskies are giving up just 20.4 PPG and 327 YPG in MAC play this year.  That’s the difference in this game.  Toledo is allowing 26.4 PG and 445 YPG this season.  The Huskies are 7-0 ATS after outrushing their last opponent by 150 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons.  The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win.  Take Northern Illinois. 

7* Kent State/Buffalo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Kent State +20 

The Key: Buffalo doesn’t even need to show up tonight.  The Bulls can lose outright and it won’t matter.  Next week’s game against Ohio will decided the MAC East champion.  I think their lack of motivation will allow Kent State to get the cover here.  And I also like that there is gusts of up to 50 miles per hour forecasted in this one, which should keep this a low scoring affair.  Take Kent State. 

6* Packers/Patriots Sunday Night *BAILOUT* on Green Bay +6 

The Key: Getting Aaron Rodgers as a 6-point underdog against the Patriots is a nice proposition.  That’s especially the case when you consider Rodgers is a perfect 5-0 ATS as a dog of 6 points or more in his career.  It doesn’t happen often.  It happened last week and the Packers nearly won outright at the Rams, losing by just 2 points.  They would have won the game outright had Ty Montgomery not fumbled the kickoff in the closing minutes.  I actually like that the Packers lost that game because it means they’ll be playing with even more of a sense of urgency today against the Pats.  Take Green Bay. 

6* Bucs/Panthers NFC South *CA$H COW* on Tampa Bay +6.5 

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs are a team I want to back with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback.  He utilizes the plethora of weapons the Bucs have at receiver much better than Jameis Winston does.  He’s not afraid to go deep.  He led the Bucs back from 21 points down to nearly beat the Bengals last week, losing on a last-second field goal.  And with Fitz the Bucs are never out of any game.  That makes them scary as 6.5-point dogs to the Panthers today.  The back door will always be open if we need it.  Tampa is 8-0 ATS off a game where 70 points or more were scored in their last 8 tries.  The Panthers are 0-6 ATS off 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better.  Take Tampa Bay. 

7* AFC Game of the Year on Cleveland Browns +9 

The Key: Backing teams in their first game with a new head coach is certainly a profitable move long-term.  It gives that team new life and new hope, and the first game out is the time to back them.  I’ll back the Browns today because of it.  The Chiefs are 31st in total defense this season, which makes them vulnerable despite having one of the top offenses in the NFL.  The Chiefs are 1-9 ATS off 4 straight games where they gained 6 YPP or more in their last 10 tries.  Take Cleveland. 

6* Boston College/VA Tech ACC *CA$H COW* on Boston College -2 

The Key: Virginia Tech used to have a great home-field advantage.  But that is clearly no longer the case.  The Hokies are just 8-9 SU at home in ACC play over the last 5 seasons.  Boston College is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last 7 ACC road games.  The Eagles travel well and should be able to beat a down Virginia Tech team that is 1-2 at home this season with blowout losses to both Notre Dame (23-45) and Georgia Tech (28-49).  Their only home win came against William & Mary.  And they also lost on the road to Old Dominion (35-49) as 28-point favorites earlier this season.  The Hokies have one of the youngest defenses in the country.  They are giving up 5.8 yards per carry in ACC play this year.  Boston College, which rushes for 230 yards per game this season, should have its way on the ground against the Hokies.  The Eagles are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  The Eagles are 8-0 ATS off a home games over the last 2 seasons.  The Eagles are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  Take Boston College. 

6* Georgia/Kentucky SEC *CA$H COW* on Kentucky +9.5 

The Key: Kentucky just gets no respect from oddsmakers.  The Wildcats are 9.5-point home dogs to the Georgia Bulldogs this week despite being 7-1 and ranked #9 in the country.  The Wildcats have earned that ranking by going 5-1 in ACC play with their only loss coming in overtime on the road at Texas A&M.  And I think they have what it takes to hang with Georgia this week.  Georgia looked vulnerable with its 16-36 road loss at LSU a few weeks back.  And the Bulldogs are coming off the Cocktail Party win over Florida last week, making this a precarious spot for them.  Kentucky’s defense is good enough to keep them in this game.  The Wildcats are yielding just 13 PPG and 295 YPG this season.  This will be the best ever atmosphere in Lexington for a college football game with the SEC East title essentially riding on the outcome.  Take Kentucky. 

6* Kansas State/TCU Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Kansas State +8 

The Key: The TCU Horned Frogs have hit rock bottom.  They are just 1-5 SU & 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  Their only win came on a last-second field goal in a 17-14 home win over Iowa State as 11.5-point favorites.  They are coming off a 26-27 loss at Kansas as 13-point favorites.  Gary Patterson seems to have lost this team.  And injuries haven’t helped.  TCU recently lost its best playmakers on offense in KaVontae Turpin.  Two of the best defensive players are out for this game in LB Ty Summers and S Niko Small.  Kansas State certainly won’t quit on Bill Snyder.  The Wildcats are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall with their only blowout loss coming at Oklahoma last week.  They played Texas to a 5-point game and Baylor to a 3-point game while upsetting Oklahoma State 31-12.  At 3-5 this season, the Wildcats have a great shot to win their next 3 games as they host Kansas and Texas Tech after this.  That would get them into a bowl game.  The Wildcats are 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a blowout road loss by 21 points or more.  Take Kansas State. 

7* NCAAF Independent Game of the Year on Liberty +2 

The Key: Liberty is the better of these two teams.  They sit at 4-3 on the season with wins over the likes of Troy and New Mexico.  And they’ve been competitive in most of their games.  Plus they had a bye last week to get ready to face UMass this week.  UMass is coming off a fortunate 22-17 victory at UConn last week as they trailed most the way.  And UConn is one of the worst teams in the country.  The Minutemen are just 3-6 this season with their other two wins coming against Duquesne and Charlotte.  All 6 of their losses have come by double-digits.  Now they have to face an option team here in Liberty.  The last time they faced an option team they lost 13-34 at Georgia Southern as 1.5-point underdogs on September 8th. Liberty is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games as a road underdog.  Take Liberty. 

6* Iowa State/Kansas Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Iowa State -14.5 

The Key: The Iowa State Cyclones continue to fly under the radar.  Since Matt Campbell took over, this has been one of the greatest turnarounds of any program in the country.  The Cyclones have gone 23-6-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall, including 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 conference games.  They have played the toughest schedule in the country and have gotten through with a 4-3 record.  And they’ve been in every game they’ve played with all 3 of their losses coming by 10 points or less to Iowa, Oklahoma and TCU.  They beat West Virginia handily at home, won at Oklahoma State, and handled Texas Tech at home last week.  Now they catch Kansas at a good time.  The Jayhawks are coming off a rare win in the Big 12 with a 27-26 upset victory over TCU last week.  That’s a TCU team that appears to have quit.  And I think the Jayhawks will suffer a letdown this week off that monumental win.  Look for the Cyclones to make easy work of them just as they did last season in a 45-0 win in Ames.  The Cyclones are 16-3 ATS in Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.  Take Iowa State. 

7* Colorado/Arizona NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Arizona -2.5 

The Key: Khalil Tate finally looked healthy for the first time all season last week as he returned from injury to face Oregon.  The Wildcats played their best game of the season in a 44-15 victory.  Tate threw for 189 yards and 3 touchdowns in the win.  And now the Wildcats are getting zero respect for that victory as only 2.5-point home favorites over Colorado Friday night.  I think the Wildcats remain hungry because they are 4-5 and need 2 more wins to make a bowl, and this game is a must-win if they want to get to a bowl because they have a road game at Washington State next time out that they’re unlikely to win.  And they get a bye next week so they certainly want to go into their bye with a taste of victory.  Colorado blew a huge lead against Oregon State last week and lost 34-41.  I think they could suffer a hangover from that defeat.  The Buffaloes have now lost 3 straight as the competition has ramped up.  Colorado is 0-7 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.  The Buffaloes are also 0-7 ATS after playing a game where 60 or more points were scores over the last 2 years.  Take Arizona. 

6* Ohio/Western Michigan MAC *CA$H COW* on Ohio -3 

The Key: The Ohio Bobcats were MAC title contenders coming into the season and now they are playing like it after a rough start in the non-conference.  They have gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.  Their only loss came on the road at Northern Illinois by a field goal, 21-24.  Their last two wins have been 49-14 over Bowling Green and 52-14 over Ball State.  Now they face a Western Michigan team coming off a 24-51 home loss to Toledo.  And the Broncos suffered a huge loss in that game when starting QB Jon Wassink suffered an ankle injury.  Wassink has thrown or 2,009 yards and 16 touchdowns with only 6 interceptions this season.  He also rushed for 6 scores.  It’s a big blow for the Broncos and a big downgrade to Kaleb Eleby at quarterback.  No question the Bobcats have the best QB in the MAC in Nathan Rourke, who has thrown 14 touchdowns with 5 interceptions, while also rushing for 569 yards and 6 scores.  I’ll take the team with the much better quarterback tonight.  The Bobcats are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games.  Take Ohio. 

7* Kent State/Bowling Green MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Kent State +1.5 

The Key: Both Kent State and Bowling Green are 1-7 this season.  But it’s clear to me that Kent State is better than their record, while Bowling Green is every bit as poor as its record.  The only win for Bowling Green came 42-35 at home over Eastern Kentucky.  The lone win for Kent State came 54-14 over Howard, the same Howard team that only lost 32-38 to Ohio.  And Kent State has losses by 1, 1, and 7 points this season to Illinois, Ohio and Akron.  Bowling Green’s 7 losses have all come by 7 points or more, and 6 of them by 15 points or more.  These teams have 2 common opponents with both losing, the difference being Kent State only losing by 13 PPG while Bowling Green losing by 25 PPG.  The Golden Flashes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. teams who average 250 PYPG or more and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. teams who allow 230 RYPG or more.  The Falcons are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games following a loss.  The Falcons are 1-10 ATS when the total is between 63.5 and 70 over the last 3 years.  Take Kent State. 

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on California +12 

The Key: The Cal Golden Bears finally snapped out of their funk with a 49-7 beat down of Oregon State.  That result was more indicative of the potential of this team than the three consecutive losses that preceded it.  The Golden Bears gave away those three games by committing a combined 14 turnovers in them, which is almost unheard of.  They only gave the ball away once against Oregon State and amassed 539 total yards.  They can play with Washington if they don’t turn the ball over, and likely beat them.  The Huskies are just 2-6 ATS in their 8 games this season and have been overrated all season.  They should not be double-digit road favorites over the Bears this weekend.  Cal is 7-0 ATS off a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers over the last 2 seasons.  Take Cal. 

6* Iowa/Penn State Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Iowa +5.5 

The Key: Iowa has opened 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS this season.  The Hawkeyes have been one of the most underrated teams in college football.  And they really should be 7-0.  They led Wisconsin in the final minutes, and that was even after they committed two special teams mistakes that led to Badgers touchdowns.  This team is the real deal and they will prove it by beating Penn State on the road Saturday.  The Nittany Lions had their dreams crushed with back-to-back home losses to Ohio State and Michigan State.  And then last week they were lucky to win 33-28 at Indiana as 14-point favorites because they were outgained by 137 yards and gave up 554 yards to the Hoosiers.  Iowa is one of the best teams in the country at stopping the run, giving up 80 RYPG and 2.7 YPC.  That bodes well for them being able to stop a Penn State rushing attack that is averaging 241 RYPG and 5.9 YPC.  Kirk Ferentz is 27-5 ATS vs. excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 YPC or more as the coach of the Hawkeyes.  Take Iowa. 

6* Saturday NCAAF *Upset Special* on Arizona State +3.5 

The Key: USC suffered its third loss of the season last week in a 28-41 setback at Utah.  That was a much worse loss than the final score showed as the Trojans were outgained by 336 yards.  I think the air has been lifted out from underneath their sails now.  They have no chance to win the Pac-12 and little to play for the rest of the way.  Arizona State is a team that will keep battling under first-year head coach Herm Edwards.  The Sun Devils sit at just 3-4 this season, but all 4 losses came by 7 points or less, so they’ve had a chance to win every game.  They are much better than their record suggests.  And they’ve had extra rest after playing last Thursday in a 13-20 home loss to Stanford in a game they should have won as they outgained the Cardinal by 79 yards.  Look for them to come back with a chip on their shoulder this week, rested and ready to go.  The Sun Devils are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss.  The Trojans are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  USC is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games following an ATS loss.  The Trojans are 0-6 ATS off 3 straight conference games over the last 2 seasons.  Take Arizona State. 

7* Wyoming/Colorado State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Colorado State -1.5 

The Key: I love the price we are getting on Colorado State as less than a field goal home favorite over Wyoming Friday night.  The Rams still have something to play for at 3-5 as they need to win 3 of their final 4 games to make a bowl.  And this one is their most winnable, so they should handle their business.  The Rams have a full week to get ready for this game after playing last Friday.  Their offense put up 489 total yards against Boise State in what was a misleading 28-56 loss.  The Broncos got 2 special teams touchdowns and the Rams outgained them by 17 yards.  Collin Hill took over for Carta-Samuels at QB midway through the game and finished 12-of-14 for 135 yards and a touchdown.  Hill is expected to get the start this week and is an upgrade over Carta-Samuels.  Wyoming is just 2-6 with very little to play for at this point.  It is coming off 4 consecutive losses, and its two wins this season have come against Wofford (17-14) and New Mexico State.  The Cowboys have been atrocious on offense in averaging just 15.5 PPG and 289 YPG this season.  I’m not sure how they are going to keep up with this potent Colorado State offense.  The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  Wyoming is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take Colorado State. 

7* Georgia Tech/Virginia Tech ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Virginia Tech -3 

The Key: I love the situation for the Hokies tonight.  Both them and Georgia Tech are coming off bye weeks, and that clearly favors the Hokies.  Any time a team has extra time to prepare for the triple-option I’m looking to back that team because it’s so critical to get that extra prep time.  Whether it be off a bye or for a bowl game, it’s a huge advantage.  And defensive coordinator Bud Foster will be extra hungry after losing to Georgia Tech each of the last two seasons.  The Yellow Jackets are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.  Georgia Tech is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games overall.  The Hokies are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games.  The Hokies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.  Take Virginia Tech. 

7* Giants/Falcons NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +4.5 

The Key: The Falcons haven’t been covering this season because they can’t play defense.  They are 2-4 ATS, but their two covers came by 2 points over the Falcons and by 2 points over the Bucs.  That Bucs win last week needed a 57-yard field goal from Matt Bryant in the closing seconds to cover the 3-point spread in a 5-point win.  And Bryant hurt his hamstring on the kick and will miss this game.  As far as kickers go, Bryant is one of the most valuable in the league.  And his role is even larger in recent seasons with all of the red zone struggles by the Falcons.  But the biggest reason I’m fading the Falcons this week is their defense.  They are giving up 32 PPG and 418 YPG this season.  They are missing 3 defensive starters due to injury and haven’t been able to replace them.  The Giants have extra time to prepare after playing last Thursday.  The Giants are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games following a Thursday game.  The Giants are also 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of 2 straight games.  Take New York. 

6* Bengals/Chiefs Sunday Night *BAILOUT* on Kansas City -6 

The Key: The Chiefs have played 4 of their first 6 games on the road this season, yet they’ve gone 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS.  Oddsmakers just can’t seem to price them right.  Their only loss was 40-43 to New England on the road last week.  They should get right here against the Bengals.  The Chiefs are 2-0 at home this season and an 11-point win over the 49ers and a 16-point win over the Jaguars.  The Chiefs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Take Kansas City. 

6* NFL Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Detroit Lions -3 

The Key: This is a great situation for the Detroit Lions Sunday.  They are coming off their bye and feeling good after beating the Packers 31-23 going into their bye.  They have gotten healthy and have been an underrated team, going 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.  They can get back to .500 on the season with a win here Sunday and will be hungry to do so.  The Dolphins are getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to their 4-2 start this season.  But they’ve been winning with smoke and mirrors as all four wins were one-score games, and they came against the Titans, Jets, Raiders and Bears.  They stepped up in class and lost to the Patriots 7-38 and to the Bengals 17-27.  The Lions crushed the Patriots earlier this season.  Brock Osweiler will get the start against Sunday, and I’ll gladly fade him knowing that it’s unlikely he puts two good games in a row together.  Matt Patricia will make life tough on Osweiler with two weeks to get ready to face him.  The Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week. The Dolphins are 17-45-3 ATS in their last 65 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take Detroit. 

7* Titans/Chargers London *Early Riser* on Los Angeles -6.5 

The Key: The Chargers are hitting on all cylinders right now.  They are 4-2 on the season with their only two losses coming to the Rams and Chiefs, who are the two best teams in the NFL to this point.  They crushed the Raiders by 16 at home before an even more impressive 38-14 road win over the Browns in their last two games.  They should have another blowout victory over the Titans here.  The Titans lost 21-0 last week to the Ravens and just have no semblance of an offense whatsoever.  They rank near the bottom of the NFL at 14.5 PPG and 263 YPG on offense.  Philip Rivers and company are scoring 29.2 PPG with 412 YPG on offense.  I just don’t see how the Titans can hang with Rivers and company here.  The Chargers are 29-4 ATS in their last 33 vs. AFC South teams.  The Titans are 17-42-4 ATS in their last 63 vs. AFC teams.  Take Los Angeles. 

6* Alabama/Tennessee SEC *CA$H COW* on Tennessee +29 

The Key: The Tennessee Vols are improving rapidly under first-year head coach Jeremy Pruitt, who was the defensive coordinator at Alabama before coming here.  And Pruitt knows Alabama’s personnel and most of its playbook, which would be a big advantage for the Vols.  The Vols are coming off a 30-24 upset road win over Auburn as 15.5-point favorites.  They covered against Georgia the previous week as 31-point road underdogs, and now they should cover as 28.5-point home dogs to Alabama.  Tennessee has never been this big of a home underdog at least dating back to 1980.  There’s some value here with the Vols.  Take Tennessee. 

6* Conference USA Play of the Day on UTEP +23.5 

The Key: I like the spot for this improving UTEP squad Saturday.  They are coming off a bye and have to be gleaming with confidence after a 24-27 home loss to North Texas as 24.5-point dogs last time out.  North Texas is one of the best teams in Conference USA, so that was an impressive performance.  They only lost by 24 at Tennessee as 33.5-point dogs earlier this season, and have only lost by more than 24 points once this season.  But because they are 0-6 they aren’t getting any respect from oddsmakers.  LA Tech is getting too much respect for its 31-3 win at UTSA last week.  That followed up a 7-28 home loss to UAB.  The last 3 meetings in this series were decided by 21, 21 and 2 points, and the Miners were massive underdogs in all 3 games.  They are once again massive dogs here and showing good value.  Take UTEP. 

6* Oklahoma/TCU Big 12 *CA$H COW* on TCU +8 

The Key: TCU is going to be in a sour mood with Oklahoma coming to town Saturday.  They have lost 3 of their last 4 games, but the losses to Ohio State and Texas weren’t bad.  Their loss to Texas Tech was.  And Gary Patterson should have his team ready to go this week to make amends.  The Horned Frogs also want revenge from 2 losses to the Sooners last year, including in the Big 12 title game.  Oklahoma is just 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games and has been an overvalued commodity.  Patterson is 10-2 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games as the coach of TCU.  Lincoln Riley is 0-6 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63 as the coach of Oklahoma.  Take TCU. 

7* SEC Game of the Week on Ole Miss +4 

The Key: I think Auburn has thrown in the towel already.  The Tigers had SEC title aspirations coming into the season, but now they’ve lost 3 games already.  And they just aren’t that good.  They are coming off an ugly 24-30 home loss to Tennessee as 15.5-point favorites.  And I question their motivation now with 3 losses.  Ole Miss is feeling good with a 5-2 start with its only losses coming to LSU and Alabama, two of the best teams in the country.  They got a big 37-33 comeback road win at Arkansas last week.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Ole Miss. 

7* Colorado State/Boise State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Colorado State +24 

The Key: Colorado State has played Boise State tough the last 2 years.  The Rams only lost by 5 as 28-point road underdogs in 2016 . And last year they lost by 7 in overtime as 6.5-point home dogs.  They led by 14 late in that game and it took a miracle for Boise State to win.  So the Rams will be out for revenge for sure.  And they are catching a whopping 24 points in this year’s meeting.  I just think Boise State is overrated right now.  They lost to San Diego State outright and barely beat Nevada in their last two games.  The Broncos are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games.  The Rams are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take Colorado State. 

6* Stanford/ASU Pac-12 *CA$H COW* on Stanford -2.5 

The Key: Stanford really needed the bye week to get Bryce Love healthy and recover from a grueling 3-week stretch.  They played Oregon, Notre Dame and Utah in consecutive weeks coming into their bye.  They looked worn down by the time they lost 21-40 to Utah.  Now they can regroup, and I trust David Shaw as one of the best head coaches in the country to get his team ready to go this week against Arizona State.  The Sun Devils have not fared well when they’ve stepped up in class this year, losing to San Diego State, Washington and Colorado.  They did beat Michigan State 16-13, but scored 10 unanswered points in the 4th quarter and were fortunate to win that contest.  The Cardinal are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games following a loss.  The Cardinal are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 against good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play.  Take Stanford. 

7* Broncos/Cardinals NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver -1 

The Key: We’re getting the better team here in the Broncos where they just have to win the game to cover the spread.  I’ll take it.  The Broncos need a win here after 4 straight losses against a tough schedule where they were underdogs in all 4 games.  But here they’re back to a favorite against the worst team in the NFL in the Arizona Cardinals.  It’s a Cardinals team that is putting up just 13.7 PPG and 220 YPG this season on offense.  You can’t win in today’s NFL with that kind of offense.  And now the Cardinals will be down two starting offensive linemen in Justin Push and Mike Iupati.  That doesn’t bode well for them against this dominant Denver defensive line.  The Broncos are moving the ball just fine averaging 388 YPG and 6.2 YPP.  The Broncos have won 8 of their last 9 meetings with the Cardinals for an 89% success rate.  Take Denver. 

7* 49ers/Packers NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay -9 

The Key: The Packers are 2-0-1 at home this season.  The last time they were at home they blew out the Bills 22-0.  And they’ll be hungry for a victory today after giving the game away against Detroit last week in a 23-31 road loss.  They outgained the Lions by 257 yards in that game a week after outgaining the Bills by 276 yards.  But they missed out on 10 possible points from kicker Mason Crosby and lost he turnover battle 3-0.  The 49ers just lost by 10 at home to the lowly Cardinals of all teams last week.  The 49ers are now 1-12 in games in which Jimmy G doesn’t start over the last 2 seasons, and most of those losses can be attributed to the inept CJ Beathard.  It doesn’t help that the 49ers have all kinds of injuries at receiver and along the offensive line as well.  I don’t expect them to be able to stay within double-digits of the Packers tonight.  The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The 49ers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 October games.  The Packers are 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 October games.  The Packers are 11-4-2 ATS in the last 17 meetings, including 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home meetings with the 49ers.  Take Green Bay. 

7* AFC North Game of the Year on Pittsburgh Steelers +2 

The Key: Big Ben and the Steelers own the Bengals and should not be underdogs in this AFC North battle.  Especially not since they need the win more trailing the Bengals by 1.5 games right now.  The Steelers have won 6 straight meetings with the Bengals.  They are 8-1 in their last 9 trips to Cincinnati as well.  And Big Ben is 25-4-1 in the state of Ohio in his career.  The Bengals just don’t match up well with the Steelers at all, and they are very fortunate to be 4-1 this season.  They get a dose of reality Sunday.  Take Pittsburgh. 

6* Ole Miss/Arkansas SEC *CA$H COW* on Arkansas +7 

The Key: Ole Miss has been embarrassed when stepping up in class.  They lost 7-62 at home to Alabama and 16-45 at LSU for their two losses this season.  Arkansas played Alabama last week and only lost 31-65, actually gaining over 400 yards on that Alabama defense.  Ole Miss was held to just 248 yards against Alabama.  Arkansas has an improved defense that held Auburn to 225 total yards three weeks ago and Texas A&M to 24 points and 377 total yards two weeks ago.  No question the Razorbacks are battle-tested now and won’t be phased by this Ole Miss offense.  And the Razorbacks are primed for their biggest offensive output of the season against an Ole Miss defense that has been shredded for 35.5 PPG and 504 YPG this season.  The Rebels should not be TD road favorites here Saturday with that leaky of a defense.  Ole Miss is 0-6 ATS off a home win over the last 2 seasons.  Arkansas is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 games following 3 or more consecutive losses.  The Rebels are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Razorbacks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home meetings with the Rebels, and 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings overall.  The underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings.  Take Arkansas. 

6* Michigan State/Penn State Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Michigan State +13.5 

The Key: This is the preferred role when backing the Michigan State Spartans.  Not the role they’ve been in the last few weeks as double-digit favorites as they’ve failed to live up to expectations.  But the underdog role where Mark Dantonio thrives.  Penn State is reeling from the loss to Ohio State and could suffer a hangover, similar to last year when they were upset in East Lansing by the Spartans.  Penn State is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 home games off a home loss to a conference opponent.  The Nittany Lions are 1-10-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss.  The Spartans are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Michigan State.

6* UCF/Memphis AAC *CA$H COW* on Memphis +5 

The Key: UCF has benefited from playing one of the easiest schedules in the country.  Their 5 wins have come against UConn, South Carolina State, FAU, Pitt and SMU with 4 of those games at home.  They haven’t been on the road since August 30th against UConn.  This will easily be their toughest game of the season here at Memphis, which is 4-0 at home this season and winning by 36.8 PPG on average.  The Tigers want revenge from their 62-55 (OT) loss to UCF in the AAC title game last year.  Memphis is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 home games vs. teams who outscore their opponents by 17-plus PPG.  The Tigers have one of the best home-field advantages in the country, and it will be a great atmosphere Saturday with nationally ranked UCF coming to town.  Take Memphis. 

6* Oklahoma State/K-State Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Kansas State +7 

The Key: Both Kansas State and Oklahoma State are having down seasons.  Kansas State is 2-4 and in need of a victory after losing 3 straight.  They lost by 5 at home to Texas and by 3 at Baylor the last 2 weeks.  They are clearly hungry for a win and I think they have a good shot to get one Saturday at home against the Cowboys.  Oklahoma State has lost by 24 at home to Texas Tech and by 6 at home to Iowa State in two of the last three weeks with a 20-point win at Kansas in between.  And this has really been a tight series in recent meetings.  4 of the lsat 5 meetings have been decided by 6 points or less.  Oklahoma State hasn’t beaten Kansas State by more than 7 points in any of the last 7 meetings.  That’s a 7-0 angle backing the Wildcats.  Take Kansas State. 

7* SEC Game of the Month on Florida -7 

The Key: Many would expect Florida to have a letdown after their big 27-19 win over LSU last week.  However, the Gators have a bye on deck next week, so that kind of trumps that theory.  They will be laying it all on the line to get a win here against Vanderbilt knowing that they have next week off.  Florida is 25-1 SU in its last 26 meetings with Vanderbilt, including 13-0 in its last 13 trips to Vanderbilt.  The Commodores have been awful in their last 3 games.  They lost 14-37 at home to South Carolina, barely beat Tennessee State 31-27 as 28.5-point home favorites, and lost 13-41 at Georgia.  They have come back down to reality after a fast start to the season against weak competition.  The Gators have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games with wins by 38 over Colorado State, by 26 at Tennessee, by 7 at Mississippi State and by 8 at home over LSU.  They continue rolling Saturday.  Take Florida. 

7* Arizona/Utah NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Arizona +14 

The Key: Utah is getting too much respect from its 40-21 win at Stanford last week.  The Cardinal were gassed in that game as they were playing a 3rd straight tough game after facing Oregon and Notre Dame the previous two weeks.  The Utes took advantage.  But now they’ll laying two touchdowns to the Arizona Wildcats, who have won 3 of their last 4 coming in with their only loss coming 20-24 to USC.  Seven of the last eight meetings between Utah and Arizona have been decided by 14 points or fewer.  The Wildcats can hang here, especially since the Utes have an underwhelming offense that makes it tough for them to win by a margin.  Take Arizona. 

7* PHI/NY NFC East Game of the Month on New York +3 

The Key: Despite being 1-4, the Giants are actually just one game out of first place in the NFC East.  It’s been a bad division and the Giants at least still feel like they’re in it.  So they won’t be giving up on their season any time soon.  And they showed a lot of heart by coming back from 17-3 down to actually take a lead in Carolina on Sunday.  But they lost 31-33 on a 63-yard field goal.  The Giants will be hungry to beat the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles tonight.  The Eagles are getting everyone’s best shot, and they aren’t handling it too well.  They are just 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games with their only win coming 20-16 over the Colts.  They are two goal-line stands away from being 0-5.  They have injuries everywhere, especially on offense that are holding them back.  And the Super Bowl hangover just appears to be real with this squad.  They should not be 3-point road favorites over the Giants this week.  Thursday NFL home teams are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS this season.  It’s a huge advantage to play at home on a short week.  The Giants are 6-0 ATS after gaining 75 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games over the last three seasons.  Take New York. 

6* Texas Tech/TCU Big 12 *CA$H COW* on TCU -7 

The Key: TCU has won 3 of its last 4 meetings with Texas Tech, including last year’s 27-3 victory as 6.5-point road favorites.  Now they are only 7-point home favorites this time around.  And TCU’s only two losses this season have come on a neutral to Ohio State and on the road to Texas, two of the best teams in the country.  Texas Tech lost by 8 at home to West Virginia and by 20 on a neutral to Ole Miss.  I believe TCU is the best team that they’ve faced yet.  And the Red Raiders have quarterback injury problems right now with both Bowman (lung) and Carter (ankle) highly questionable tonight.  They could be down to their third-stringer.  Either way, TCU has one of the best defenses in the country and will shut them down just as they did last year.  Gary Patterson is 14-3 ATS in home games off a bye week as the coach of TCU.  Take TCU. 

7* Sun Belt Game of the Month on Arkansas State +10.5 

The Key: This spread has gotten out of control with Appalachian State laying double-digits on the road against a Sun Belt power in Arkansas State that has won 5 titles in the past 6 seasons.  This one is all about strength of schedule for me.  App State has played a very weak schedule with three cupcakes and only one tough game at Penn State, which was back in Week 1.  Arkansas State has played 4 games already against solid programs in Alabama, Tulsa, UNLV and Georgia Southern.  I expect the Red Wolves to play the underdog card up tonight and be extra hungry for a victory.  They are 1-4 ATS this season and undervalued because of it, while App State is 4-0 ATS and overvalued.  This is simply too many points tonight.  Take Arkansas State. 

7* Redskins/Saints NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +6 

The Key: The Redskins have put up the kind of numbers this season that should make you think twice about them.  Most write them off as just a mediocre team.  But the numbers say otherwise.  They are averaging 383 yards per game on offense while giving up a mere 278 yards per game on defense.  They are gaining 5.9 yards per play on offense and giving up 4.9 yards per play on defense.  You won’t find many teams that can claim having anything close to that good of numbers thus far.  And now the Redskins are fresh because they had a bye last week.  The Saints lost outright to the Bucs at home and beat the Browns by a field goal in their two home games this season.  I can’t see them winning this game by a touchdown or more against the Redskins, who are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Saints.  Take Washington. 

6* Jaguars/Chiefs AFC *CA$H COW* on Kansas City -3 

The Key: The Kansas City Chiefs are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season.  Oddsmakers just haven’t caught up with how good they are.  And now as only 3-point home favorites over the Jaguars Sunday, I still don’t think they have adjusted enough.  This is strength vs. strength.  And the last 6 times the leagues No. 1 offense has faced the No. 1 defense, the offense has won 5 times in the regular season.  I’ll take the Chiefs’ offense over this Jacksonville defense, which has faced an awful slate of opposing offenses to this point.  The Jaguars are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing 200 or fewer total yards in their previous game.  The Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in their last six games against excellent passing offenses that average 260 or more passing yards per game.  Bets on teams who are coming off 2 consecutive games where they committed no turnovers against an opponent that is coming off a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 24-5 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Kansas City. 

6* Packers/Lions NFC *CA$H COW* on Detroit +1 

The Key: The Green Bay Packers have some serious injuries right now at wide receiver.  There’s no way they should be favored on the road over the Lions with these injuries.  Devante Adams, Geronimo Allison and Randall Cobb are all questionable to play this week for the Packers.  Aaron Rodgers could be short on weapons.  The Lions are actually 5-4 SU in their last 9 meetings with the Packers so they have figured them out.  And this is a huge game for the Lions after a 1-3 start as they need a win to save their season.  The beat the Patriots 26-10 at home in Week 3 to show that they can come up big in big games.  And they were beating Dallas on the road last week until the last few seconds.  Bets against road teams with a line of +3 to -3 after allowing 6 points or less last game against opponent that’s off a loss by 3 points or less are 26-6 ATS since 1983.  Take Detroit. 

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month on Pittsburgh Steelers -3 

The Key: The Falcons and Steelers are two similar teams in that they both have great offenses and suspect defenses.  But the Steelers can get stops, and I’m not sure the Falcons can due to all their injuries right now.  The Falcons are without 4 starters in D in S Keanu Neal, LB Deion Jones, S Ricardo Allen and DT Grady Jarrett.  Top pass rusher Vic Beasley is also questionable with an ankle injury.  The Falcons have given up 43 points to the Saints and 37 to the Bengals in consecutive weeks.  Ben Roethlisberger and company should have their way with this Atlanta defense too.  Pittsburgh is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 home games off an upset loss to a division foe as a favorite.  It is coming back to win by 9.7 points per game in this situation.  Take Pittsburgh. 

6* Conference USA Game of the Day on UAB +9.5 

The Key: This is a very difficult situation for Louisiana Tech.  The Bulldogs are coming off their two biggest games of the season over the last two weeks.  They only trailed 24-21 at LSU before eventually losing 21-38.  And then last week they upset North Texas 29-27 as 7.5-point road underdogs.  The Mean Green missed two fourth quarter field goals to aid their cause.  Now this is clearly a letdown spot for the Bulldogs, and they are starting to get a lot of respect from oddsmakers as 9.5-point favorites against a good UAB team.  This is a UAB squad that is 3-1 this season and coming off a dominant 28-7 win over Charlotte, which followed up an upset win over Tulane.  UAB beat LA Tech 23-22 as 9.5-point home underdogs last year.  They have 16 starters back from that squad and continue to be underrated here.  The Blazers are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 conference games.  The Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take UAB. 

6* AAC Game of the Day on SMU +24.5 

The Key: Bettors are starting to have to pay a tax to back UCF.  The Knights are 17-0 dating back to last season and have been covering machines.  Now they’re 24.5-point home favorites over SMU this week.  SMU has 14 starters back from a team that only lost 24-31 at home to UCF as 14.5-point dogs last year.  SMU has picked up back-to-back nice wins against Navy 31-30 and Houston Baptist 63-27.  They also only lost by 25 at Michigan as 36.5-point underdogs, and hung tough with TCU for a half.  They are capable of hanging with UCF enough to stay within this 24.5-point spread today.  Sonny Dykes is 11-2 ATS in road games off 2 or more consecutive wins as a head coach.  Take SMU. 

6* MAC Game of the Day on Kent State +12 

The Key: Both Kent State and Ohio have a common opponent in Howard.  Kent State beat Howard 54-14 as 9-point home favorites and outgained them by 241 yards.  Ohio only beat Howard 38-32 as 30.5-point home favorites and was outgained by 220 yards in that contest.  And somehow Ohio State is laying double-digits on the road to Kent State? Give me a break.  The Golden Flashes have a vastly improved offense this season.  They should be able to torch an Ohio defense that is yielding 38.2 points and 518 yards per game this season.  Frank Solich is 2-12 ATS after scoring 50 points or more last game in all games he has coached.  Take Kent State. 

7* Big 12 Game of the Month on Iowa State +9.5 

The Key: Iowa State is battle-tested already having played Oklahoma, Iowa and TCU with two of those games on the road.  And yet they still haven’t lost by more than 10 points in any game, being competitive in all of them.  Oklahoma State will be the fourth-best team they have faced yet.  And I would argue that Iowa State is probably the best team that Oklahoma State has played.  And the Cowboys lost 17-41 at home to Texas Tech as 14.5-point favorites, so they are beatable.  And the Cyclones want revenge from some close calls recently against the Cowboys.  They have lost 5 straight to Oklahoma State, including the last three all by 7 points or less.  I expect this one to go down to the wire as well, so the price is right to back the Cyclones here catching nearly double-digits.  The Cyclones are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.  The Cyclones are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.  Iowa State is 10-1 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow 58% competitions or more over the last 3 seasons.  Take Iowa State. 

6* Big Ten Game of the Day on Northwestern +10 

The Key: I believe Northwestern to be undervalued right now due to a 1-3 start and in the midst of a 3-game losing streak.  After beating Purdue in their opener, they were upset by both Duke and Akron, but they outgained Duke by 80 yards and Akron by 124.  And last week they nearly upset Michigan in a 17-20 home loss.  I like the price we are getting with the Wildcats, who should not be 10-point underdogs to an overrated Michigan State team.  The Spartans barely beat Utah State 38-31 as 23.5-point home favorites in their opener.  And they only won 31-20 over Central Michigan as 27.5-point home favorites last week.  If those two teams can hang with the Spartans, Northwestern can as well.  Northwestern is actually 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last 4 meetings with Michigan State despite being the underdog in all 4 contests.  The Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.  The Wildcats are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 conference games.  The Wildcats are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 trips to Michigan State.  Take Northwestern. 

7* Utah State/BYU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah State +2 

The Key: Utah State has gone on to prove that its narrow 31-38 loss to Michigan State as 23.5-point underdogs in the opener was no fluke.  They have since gone 3-0 with a 60-13 win over New Mexico State, a 73-12 win over Tennessee Tech and a 42-32 win over Air Force.  And now the Aggies are in the perfect spot having a bye since that Air Force win to get ready for BYU.  Meanwhile, BYU has played a brutal schedule to start and has had no time off.  They’ve played Arizona, Cal, Wisconsin, and Washington.  It looked like they ran out of gas last week against Washington, losing 7-35 while getting outgained by 270 yards.  I don’t think they’ll have much left in the tank here Friday on this short week against a rested Utah State squad.  The Aggies are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after gaining 450 or more total yards in their previous game.  The Aggies are 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 Friday games.  The Cougars are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games.  The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Friday games.  BYU is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 home games vs. teams who average 450 or more yards per game on offense.  Take Utah State. 

7* Colts/Patriots AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New England -10 

The Key: This is such a tough spot for the Colts.  They are on a short week and coming off an overtime game against the Texans.  And they now have to travel to New England.  Home teams have dominated Thursday games for the last several years because it’s such an advantage for them.  And add in the fact that the Colts have a massive injury report and I just don’t see them even being competitive tonight.  The Patriots are 7-0 in their last 7 meetings with the Colts.  They have won the last 5 meetings by an average of 24.6 PPG.  Enough said.  Take New England. 

6* AFC Game of the Day on New York Jets +7.5 

The Key: The Jaguars managed just 6 points last week in a loss to the Titans at home.  They have some key injuries right now that won’t help them the rest of the way.  They lost left tackle Cam Robinson to a torn ACL.  And Blake Bortles just doesn’t have many weapons outside.  Leonard Fournette is still banged up.  I just don’t think Jacksonville can be laying these kinds of prices with how poor their offense is.  And the Jets are in a good spot here with extra rest having played last Thursday in a tough loss at Cleveland.  They’ll be looking to bounce back here and have played well in their two road games, also winning 48-17 at Detroit.  The Jets are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.  The Jaguars are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 September games.  Take New York. 

6* Sunday NFL *Upset Special* on Houston Texans +1 

The Key: The Texans need a win and should get one here Sunday against a Colts team that they are clearly betting than.  The Texans are outgaining opponents by 46 yards per game this season, so they are clearly better than their 0-3 record.  The Colts are getting outgained by 58 yards per game and are fortunate to be 1-2 as they have the stats of an 0-3 team.  The Texans are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 4.  The Colts are 2-6 in their last 8 against the AFC South.  The road team is 5-1-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.  Take Houston. 

6* MAC Game of the Day on Eastern Michigan -3 

The Key: The Eagles Michigan Eagles continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers here as only 3-point favorites over Northern Illinois.  This is a team that has gone 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games overall and continue to be a covering machine.  They have showed their mettle with a 20-19 win at Purdue as 15-point dogs, a 28-35 road loss to a very good Buffalo team, and a 20-23 road loss to a very good San Diego State as 10.5-point dogs over the last 3 weeks.  They should be able to handle this down NIU team that is 1-3 with three double-digits losses.  Their only win was a 24-16 win over Central Michigan as 13.5-point favorites.  That’s a Central Michigan team that lost 31-7 at home to Kansas.  The Huskies have been embarrassing on offense this year, averaging just 14 PPG, 236 YPG and 3.5 YPP.  It doesn’t get any worse than that.  The Eagles are 11-1 ATS off a game where they forced 1 or fewer turnovers over the last 3 seasons.  The Eagles are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss.  The Huskies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.  Take Eastern Michigan. 

6* Big Ten Game of the Day on Northwestern +15 

The Key: Northwestern is primed for a big game Saturday.  The Wildcats have been steaming for two weeks following their upset loss to Akron in which the Zips had 3 defensive touchdowns.  They outgained Akron by 124 yards.  And they lost to Duke the week before despite outgaining them by 80 yards.  This is a Wildcats team that had high expectations coming into the season.  Not all is lost yet, and they have a chance to make a statement here Saturday and improve to 2-0 in Big Ten play.  Michigan is getting too much respect from the books.  They lost at Notre Dame in the opener, but have reeled off 3 straight home wins over Western Michigan, SMU and Nebraska since.  Big deal.  They will get more of a fight than they are expecting here from the Wildcats.  Michigan is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games after scoring 31 or more points in 3 straight games coming in.  The Wolverines are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 games following an ATS win.  Michigan is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Wildcats are 23-4 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game.    Take Northwestern. 

6* Big 12 Game of the Day on Baylor +24 

The Key: Oklahoma is coming off a shocking 28-21 (OT) victory against Army last week.  The Black Knights played a great game and played keep away from the Sooners.  They held the ball for nearly 45 minutes compared to just over 15 for the Sooners.  I think that effort will have Oklahoma’s defense taxed this week, and Baylor can take advantage.  Remember last year Baylor nearly upset Oklahoma in a 41-49 home loss as 27.5-point underdogs.  And this Baylor team is much better than that one, while Oklahoma is not as good as last year.  The Bears have opened 3-1 with their only loss to unbeaten Duke.  They have outgained all four of their opponents this season, including Duke.  Bets on road underdogs off a home win against a conference opponent with 4 or more starters returning than an opponent, plus a returning QB starter against a team with a new QB are 31-7 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Take Baylor. 

6* ACC Game of the Day on Virginia +6 

The Key: Bronco Mendenhall is doing big things in Year 3 at Virginia.  He clearly has his best team yet.  The Cavaliers are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS this season.  Their only loss was a 4-point road loss to Indiana in the slop as 5-point underdogs.  They beat Richmond 42-13 as 14.5-point favorites.  They beat Ohio 45-31 as 4-point favorites.  And they dominated Louisville 27-3 as 4.5-point favorites.  Their offense is one of the most improved in the country, and their defense is also greatly improved over last year.  They are averaging 32.5 PPG and giving up just 16.7 PPG and 297 YPG.  NC State lost a ton of NFL talent from their defense last year and returned just 3 starters on that side of the ball.  After a weak schedule to open the season with wins over James Madison, Georgia State and Marshall, they take a big step up in class here against the Cavaliers.  Virginia is 7-0 ATS in road games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.  The Cavaliers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Virginia. 

7* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Year on UL-Lafayette +49.5 

The Key: Alabama is notorious for not being able to cover the spread in these situations.  They are coming off a big win over Texas A&M, and now they step out of the conference this week before playing another SEC game against Arkansas next week.  They just don’t seem like they are ever concerned with running up the score.  The starters should be out of the game early in the 3rd quarter.  That’s going to make it difficult for them to win by 50-plus to cover this spread.  Bets on underdogs of 31.5 or more points who failed to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games, a bad team that wins 25% to 40% of their games against a team with a. Winning record are 48-17 ATS since 1992.  Take UL-Lafayette. 

7* Memphis/Tulane NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Tulane +15 

The Key: This feels like a huge game for Tulane if they want to get to a bowl game this year.  The Green Wave have opened 1-3 with road losses to UAB and Ohio State and a home loss to Wake Forest amidst a brutal schedule.  I think they will be ‘all in’ here trying to get a win against Memphis.  This is a Memphis team that only beat lowly South Alabama 52-35 as 31.5-point home favorites last week.  If South Alabama can hang, I certainly believe Tulane can at home.  And Memphis lost its only road game this year 21-22 at Navy, getting upset at 6.5-point favorites.  The Tigers are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games after scoring 50 points or more.  The Green Wave are 6-0 ATS in home games off a non-conference game over the last 3 years.  Tulane is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 home games overall.  Take Tulane. 

7* Vikings/Rams NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota +7.5 

The Key: The Vikings are simply catching too many points tonight against the Los Angeles Rams.  The Vikings have been downgraded big time by the public after their upset loss to the Bills last week.  But that loss will only have them even more hungry to bounce back tonight.  And the Rams could not be viewed any higher in the public’s eyes after their 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start.  But they have beaten three teams in the Raiders, Cardinals and Chargers who have a combined one win between them this season.  Minnesota shut down the Rams 24-7 at home last year.  Jared Goff hasn’t seen a defense nearly as strong as the one he will be up against tonight.  The Vikings are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a loss.  The Vikings are 43-21 ATS in their last 64 games overall.  Take Minnesota. 

7* Steelers/Bucs MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh -1 

The Key: Before the season, the Steelers would have been close to a touchdown favorite here at Tampa Bay.  But after two weeks, the perception of the Steelers is way down because they tied the Browns and lost to the Chiefs.  But it’s clear the Chiefs are one of the best teams in the NFL, and the Browns are one of the most improved teams in the league.  The Bucs are 2-0 out of nowhere with upset wins over both the Saints and Eagles.  Their perception is through the roof right now.  They are overvalued.  Pittsburgh is still the better of these two teams.  They have the better defense and the better offense.  And now they are playing extra hungry looking for their first win of the year.  Expect the Steelers to come out like gangbusters in this one.  Mike Tomlin is 17-6 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game as the coach of the Steelers.  The Steelers are 23-9-2 ATS in their last 34 road games vs. a team with a. Winning home record.  The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* Chargers/Rams *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles Chargers +7 

The Key: The Rams are getting too much hype right now.  They beat two bad teams in the Raiders and Cardinals and now everyone is crowning them Super Bowl champs already.  And they’re being priced like is as they are now the Super Bowl favorites, and they are 7-point favorites here against a good Chargers team.  The Rams won’t have much of a home-field advantage in this one as both of these teams are based in Los Angeles.  And the Chargers have notoriously been a better road team than home team.  The Chargers are 41-23 ATS in their last 64 games as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points.  The Chargers are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 road games.  The Rams are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 home games.  Take the Chargers. 

6* Bengals/Panthers Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Carolina -3 

The Key: The Cincinnati Bengals are getting too much love now after their 2-0 start.  But they were outgained by 50 yards by the Colts and by 52 yards by the Ravens.  They are fortunate to be 2-0.  The Panthers will be hungry for a win here off their loss to the Falcons last week.  They beat the Cowboys 16-8 at home in Week 1 and are a great home team.  RB Joe Mixon, LB Vontaze Burfict and C Billy Price will all beat out for the Bengals this week.  The Panthers are 58-35 ATS in their last 93 games off a road loss.  Ron Rivera is an incredible 20-3 ATS off a road loss as the coach of Carolina.  The Panthers are winning by 7.8 PPG in this spot.  Take Carolina.