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College Football Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
10-18-14	Ball State +8 v. Central Michigan	Top	32-29	Win	100	29 h 7 m	Show
7* MAC Game of the Year on Ball State +8 The Key: Off a huge win at Northern Illinois, it's going to be mighty difficult for the Chippewas to bring the same energy to the field this Saturday. Ball State will have no trouble getting up for this contest following five consecutive defeats, including an ugly loss last week where it blew a 28-7 lead. While the Cardinals have dropped five in a row, they've been very competitive with three of these losses coming by seven points or less. There's no doubt Ball State is better than its 1-5 record. The Cardinals played Toledo tougher on the road than Central Michigan did. Ball State lost 34-23 to the Rockets while getting outgained 470-351. Central Mich lost 42-28 while getting outgained 543-386. The Cardinals have been a phenomenal investment on the road over the years at 42-16 ATS in their last 58. They are even on a 23-11 ATS run on the road versus teams with winning home records. The Chippewas haven't been a worthwhile investment at home where they are 6-13 ATS in their last 19. It's also worth noting that Ball State is 14-5 ATS in Saturday road games under coach Lembo, which speaks to how well he prepares his troops. Take the points.
10-18-14	Iowa v. Maryland -4.5	Top	31-38	Win	100	26 h 51 m	Show
7* Big Ten Game of the Week on Maryland -4.5 The Key: At home and having had a bye week to prepare, Maryland will take care of business against Iowa. The Terrapins were clubbed by Ohio State last time out but are on a 24-10 ATS run following a loss of 21 points or more. They are on a 12-3 ATS run in home games following a defeat of 28 points or more. It is also worth noting that they are on a 25-10 ATS run after being outgained by 225 yards or more. Iowa is 5-1 but really hasn't looked that impressive. It lost to an Iowa State team that's 2-4, should have lost to Ball State (1-5), had trouble putting away FCS Northern Iowa, trailed Pitt by double digits at the half and trailed Purdue 10-0. Iowa defeated Indiana 45-29 at home last week but was outgained by the Hoosiers. That game could have easily been a much different story had Iowa not come up with three turnovers, including a pick six, and had Indiana's starting QB not gone down with an injury. Maryland went on the road and defeated Indiana 37-15 while outgaining the Hoosiers 484-332. Don't expect Iowa's first Big Ten trip to Maryland to be a pleasant one. Lay the points.
10-16-14	Virginia Tech v. Pittsburgh	Top	16-21	Win	100	10 h 57 m	Show
7* ACC Game of the Month on Pitt pk The Key: Virginia Tech has been one of the worst investments in college football in recent years. The Hokies are 14-29-2 ATS in their last 45 games. They are 2-0 SU and ATS on the road this season, but this is far from the norm as they are still only 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road contests. It's also worth noting that they are 3-11 ATS following a cover and 1-5 ATS coming off a bye week. The Panthers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six following a bye and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games versus teams with a winning road record. Pitt has lost three straight following a 3-0 start so it will be highly motivated. Plus, it lost last season's matchup at VA Tech so it will be out for some revenge. The Hokies are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings at Pittsburgh. Take Pitt.
10-14-14	UL-Lafayette v. Texas State UNDER 63	Top	34-10	Win	100	11 h 53 m	Show
7* Sun Belt Total of the Year on UL-Lafayette/Texas State Under 63 The Key: Each of these teams combined for 65 points in their last game, and they combined for 72 points when they met last season. Yet, we see a total of only 63.0 points. It appears odds makers are begging for action on the over. We won't take the bait. Neither team has played since Oct. 4, and the extra preparation time will benefit the defenses. Offensively, both teams look to run the football. That bodes well for us since doing so keeps the clock moving and shortens the game. The Ragin' Cajuns haven't been the same offensive force on the road and are 6-1 under in their last 7 games played away from home. Take the under.
10-11-14	North Carolina +17 v. Notre Dame	Top	43-50	Win	100	77 h 3 m	Show
7* NCAAF Sandwich Game of the Year on North Carolina +17 The Key: Off a big win over Stanford and with a huge showdown at Florida State on deck, Notre Dame is in prime position for a letdown. North Carolina hasn't covered a spread all season, and we are getting a great number as a result. The Fighting Irish are 0-7 ATS in home games since 1992 after finishing under the total in four consecutive games or more. They have lost by an average score of 28.7 to 26.9 in this situation. The Irish are also 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games versus teams with a losing road record. The Tar Heels are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home and 28-12-1 ATS in their last 41 games after being held to less than 20 points in their previous game. You want to back teams like UNC that have allowed an average of 525.0 yards or more per game over their last three games if they average 4.8-5.6 yards per play and are up against a team that gives up 4.2 to 4.8 yards per play. Doing so has produced a 26-7 ATS mark since 1992. Take the points.
10-10-14	Fresno State v. UNLV +10	Top	27-30	Win	100	15 h 1 m	Show
7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights Game of the Month on UNLV +10 The Key: I expect UNLV to keep this one within the number behind a strong effort. The Rebels will be extremely motivated following four consecutive losses. The last three have come on the road so they will be chomping at the bit to take the field in front of the home fans. The Rebels showed well in their last home game, racking up 499 yards in a 48-34 loss to Northern Illinois. UNLV was tied with the Huskies in the fourth quarter despite spotting them a 28-5 advantage. I don't expect the Rebels to spot Fresno State a lead like that. UNLV was crushed 38-14 by a much better Fresno State side last season, and that loss provides added motivation for the home team. UNLV is 16-5 ATS in home games since 1992 after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games. It is 9-2 ATS under coach Hauck in home games after two or more consecutive straight up losses. It has won by an average score of 32.1 to 27.3 in this spot. Take the points.
10-04-14	Michigan +3 v. Rutgers	Top	24-26	Win	100	80 h 19 m	Show
7* Big Ten Game of the Year on Michigan +3 The Key: Brady Hoke is taking a beating in the media after back-to-back double-digit home defeats and for his handling of QB Shane Morris following a head injury. He knows his job is on the line, and I expect him to have the Wolverines ready to go in the face of adversity. It's still early in the season, and I like Big Blue's chances of regrouping. Michigan has more talent than Rutgers, and that talent will be motivated following a pathetic effort. The Wolverines amassed just 83 yards on the ground and 88 yards through the air against Minnesota. The Wolverines are 7-0 ATS under Hoke after a game with 125 passing yards or less and have won by an average score of 40.6 to 15.1 in this spot. Teams headed up by Hoke are 14-2 ATS in road games after a game where they were held to 100 rushing yards or less. The Michigan defense has been really good, holding opponents to just 283 yards per game. That's good enough for 9th in the nation. It's time for the offense to respond, and I like its chances versus a Rutgers stop unit that ranks 83rd in the country with 409 yards allowed per game. Take the points.
09-27-14	Duke v. Miami (Fla) -7	Top	10-22	Win	100	95 h 58 m	Show
7* ACC Game of the Year on Miami -7 The Key: Motivated by last week's double-digit loss at Nebraska and further fueled by last season's 18-point loss at Duke, Miami will be all business when it takes the field Saturday evening. Duke is 4-0 but is yet to play anyone and takes a big step up in competition here. Miami blew a 10-0 lead in last year's matchup and outgained the Blue Devils so the final score was misleading. The Hurricanes are 8-1 in their last nine games against Duke with the wins coming by 19.1 points on average. The Canes are 4-0 at home during this span with these wins coming by an average of 27.0 points. Duke is 1-8 ATS under coach Cutcliffe on the road versus teams that average 6.25 yards per play or more. It has lost these games by an average score of 43.6 to 18.0. Lay the points.
09-25-14	Texas Tech +14 v. Oklahoma State	Top	35-45	Win	100	11 h 35 m	Show
7* Big 12 Game of the Month on Texas Tech +14 The Key: Off last week's ugly loss to Arkansas and with five consecutive defeats to the Cowboys eating at them, the Red Raiders will be lacking no motivation this evening. Texas Tech is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games following a double-digit loss at home, which speaks to the way teams respond after getting kicked and the way odds makers overreact to big losses. Oklahoma State has won the last four meetings by at least 17 points so odds makers are clearly begging for money on the home team based on this line. The Cowboys won last season's meeting by 18, but that was a letdown spot for Texas Tech, which had just suffered its first loss of the season at Oklahoma the week before after a 7-0 start. Teams that go that deep into the season undefeated start to think about running the table and winning a national title and clearly the Red Raiders never recovered from the loss until the crushed Arizona State in bowl action. Take the points.
09-20-14	Virginia v. BYU -14	Top	33-41	Loss	-105	95 h 0 m	Show
7* NCAAF Blowout Game of the Year on BYU -14 The Key: Virginia has showed well to this point, covering the spread in all three games while taking UCLA down to the wire and upsetting Louisville. But now it heads out on the road for the first time, and it will be up against the wrong opponent. BYU was upset at Virginia last season at Virginia, and it will be out for some serious payback. BYU will have had two extra days of preparation time, and it will be extremely focused after nearly blowing a 23-0 lead against Houston. Virginia is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following a win. It is also 1-8 ATS over the last three seasons versus teams that complete 62% or more of their pass attempts. BYU is 17-5 ATS all-time when playing against teams with a win percentage of 60-75% under coach Mendenhall. Lay the points.
09-18-14	Auburn v. Kansas State +9.5	Top	20-14	Win	100	27 h 55 m	Show
7* NCAAF Thursday Night Game of the Month on Kansas State +9.5 The Key: Auburn is being overvalued by odds makers because it has covered the spread in 13 consecutive games. One thing you can't afford to do is take the Wildcats lightly. They are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 regular season games as an underdog, including 8-1 ATS in their last nine. They have also performed well with extra preparation time, going 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a bye week. The Wildcats are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games versus teams with a winning record, and I expect them to take Auburn right down to the wire Thursday.
09-13-14	Arizona State v. Colorado +16	Top	38-24	Win	100	106 h 13 m	Show
7* NCAAF Bailout Game of the Month on Colorado +16 The Key: Colorado will be lacking no motivation when it takes the field in its home opener. That's because Arizona State has thumped the Buffaloes each of the past three seasons. I expect this meeting to be a lot more competitive as Colorado brings back 16 starters and ASU returns only eight. This is a bad spot for the Sun Devils as they are 4-13 ATS in road games off a road win since 1992. They are just 2-10 ATS in road games off a double-digit road win since 1992. Also, you want to take home underdogs of 10.5 to 21.0 points in conference games if they return eight offensive starters or more including the QB. Doing so has produced a 146-71 (67.3%) ATS mark since 1992. Take the points.
09-13-14	USC v. Boston College +18	Top	31-37	Win	100	104 h 14 m	Show
7* NCAAF Letdown Game of the Year on Boston College +18 The Key: This is a bad situation for USC, which is in a letdown spot following a huge win over Stanford. The Trojans will have one less day to prepare as B.C. played Friday last week. Plus, making the cross-country trip cuts further into their prep time and affects their body clocks. I don't see USC being fully invested this week knowing it crushed the Eagles 35-7 last season. That loss, and last week's 10-point home loss to Pitt, assures us Boston College will be extremely motivated. The Trojans are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games while the Eagles are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 at home. The Eagles are also 4-0 ATS in their last four home games versus teams with a winning road mark and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS defeat. Take the points.
09-12-14	Baylor v. Buffalo +36	Top	63-21	Loss	-115	10 h 15 m	Show
7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Buffalo +36 The Key: This is Baylor's first road game of the season, and I expect it to get caught looking past a Buffalo squad it defeated 70-13 last year. I still expect Baylor to win comfortably, but I expect Buffalo to put up a much better fight on their home field. There's no better motivation than getting embarrassed. Baylor has some injuries to key players and has a bye week following this game before conference play begins so it wants to make sure it enters the conference season healthy. While Bryce Petty is expected to go despite cracking two small bones in his back in the opener, receivers Clay Fuller and Levi Norwood are out and Antwan Goodley and Corey Coleman likely won't play either. That's a lot of production that won't be on the field tonight. The Bulls gave up a lot of yards to Army last week but are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Take the points.
09-06-14	Navy -3 v. Temple	Top	31-24	Win	100	28 h 54 m	Show
7* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Year on Navy -3 The Key: Navy will benefit from having played a high-caliber opponent (Ohio State) last week. The Midshipmen racked up 370 rushing yards on the Buckeyes while averaging nearly 5.9 yards per carry. I expect Temple to have even more problems with Navy's ground attack. The Midshipmen have won four of the last five meetings in the series with the four wins coming by an average of 18.5 points. Navy is an incredible 72-36 ATS in road non-conference contests since 1992. Lay the points.
09-04-14	Arizona v. Texas-San Antonio +7.5	Top	26-23	Win	100	12 h 33 m	Show
7* NCAAF HEAVY HITTER on Texas-San Antonio +7.5 The Key: UTSA was crushed 38-13 at Arizona last season, but I expect things to go a lot differently this year. The Roadrunners bring back 20 starters (Arizona returns just 13), and those starters will be lacking no motivation as they seek revenge. They were blown out by Houston last season but returned the favor with a 27-7 victory last week. The UTSA defense came up big against Houston, and I expect that to be the difference here. I also expect the Roadrunners to have a lot of success through the air offensively. You want to take home underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points in non-conference action if they had a completion percentage of 62% or higher last season. Doing so has produced a 23-3 ATS mark since 1992. This system has produced a perfect 7-0 ATS record the last three seasons. Take the points.
09-01-14	Miami (Florida) +3.5 v. Louisville	Top	13-31	Loss	-110	13 h 38 m	Show
7* NCAAF Labor Day HEAVY HITTER on Miami +3.5 The Key: Miami will be out for some serious revenge after getting crushed by Louisville in last season's Russell Athletic Bowl. Plus, this won't be the same Louisville squad without Teddy Bridgewater and with just four defensive starters returning. The Cardinals will also be without top playmaker Devante Parker. Miami QB Brad Kaaya is worth the hype. I expect him to lead the Hurricane offense to plenty of success against Louisville's inexperienced defensive unit. Al Golden's teams are 34-19 ATS all-time as underdogs. Take the points.
08-30-14	Troy v. UAB -2.5	Top	10-48	Win	100	24 h 47 m	Show
7* NCAAF Game of the Week on UAB -2.5 The Key: UAB will be out for revenge when it takes the field Saturday at 12 PM ET. The Blazers led by 14 points entering the fourth quarter in last year's matchup at Troy, but they ended up losing in OT. With 15 starters back and home field on their side, I expect the Blazers to have their revenge. The home team is 5-1 in the last six meetings, winning these games by an average of 7.2 points. Troy has really struggled on the road where it is 2-8 in its last 10. Lay the points with UAB.
08-29-14	Texas-San Antonio +10.5 v. Houston	Top	27-7	Win	100	30 h 55 m	Show
7* NCAAF HEAVY HITTER on Texas-San Antonio +10.5 The Key: The Roadrunners return 20 starters from a team that finished last season on a five-game win streak. Larry Coker led UTSA to a 7-5 record last season, and he expects an even stronger campaign. One of UTSA's blemishes a year ago was an ugly 59-28 home upset loss to Houston. The Roadrunners won the yardage battle but had five turnovers and didn't force any. That poor performance will be all the motivation Coker's squad will need here. The Roadrunners are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games and 7-1 ATS in their last eight non-conference games. Take the points.
08-28-14	Temple +14 v. Vanderbilt	Top	37-7	Win	100	10 h 22 m	Show
7* NCAAF HEAVY HITTER on Temple +14 The Key: Vandy is being overvalued following an impressive 9-4 campaign. Keep in mind, the Commodores bring back only 10 starters and lost one heck of a coach (James Franklin). Temple went just 2-10 last season but made some serious strides down the stretch with P.J. Walker under center. The Owls are a terrific 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog, and they were 5-0 ATS as a road dog last season. They are also 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven August games. Take the points.
01-06-14	Auburn v. Florida State -9	Top	31-34	Loss	-125	11 h 35 m	Show
7* BCS National Championship HEAVY HITTER on Florida State -9 The Key: Auburn is extremely fortunate to be here as it has been the beneficiary of some very lucky breaks. Florida State, on the other hand, has won every game by at least 14 points. Defense wins championships, and that's why the Seminoles hold a significant advantage in this matchup. They rank No. 1 in the nation in scoring defense with 10.7 points allowed per game and No. 3 in total defense with 268.5 yards allowed per game. Having had a month to prepare, FSU should have success slowing down Auburn's read-option attack. Auburn ranks 38th in the country in scoring defense with 24.0 points allowed per game and 89th in total defense with 423.5 yards allowed per contest. It has been extremely vulnerable through the air, ranking 102nd against the pass. Auburn's defensive unit will have a tough time slowing down a balanced and explosive FSU offense that leads the nation with 53.0 ppg and ranks 5th in total offense with 529.4 ypg. The Seminoles are 6-0 ATS all-time under Jimbo Fisher after 7 or more consecutive wins. They are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 bowl games, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a win, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning record, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Lay the points.
01-01-14	Iowa +8 v. LSU	Top	14-21	Win	100	24 h 10 m	Show
7* Bowl Game of the Year on Iowa +8 The Key: Iowa's bowl preparation has been outstanding under coack Kirk Ferentz. Iowa has won 5 of its last 8 bowl games, including 3 of its last 4, and has lost by more than 7 points just once during this span, creating a 7-1 trend in our favor. Iowa is 4-1 versus current SEC schools during this stretch with the lone loss coming by just 7 points, creating a 5-0 tightener in our favor. The Hawkeyes are one of the best defensive teams in the country behind a linebacking trio that might be the best in the nation. Iowa ranks 7th nationally in total defense and 11th in scoring defense. It should have success slowing down an LSU offense that is minus star QB Zach Mettenberger. LSU has posted some good offensive numbers, but Iowa is 13-3 ATS all-time under coach Ferentz versus teams that average 37.0 points per game or more. Take the points.
12-31-13	Virginia Tech +7.5 v. UCLA	Top	12-42	Loss	-105	23 h 50 m	Show
7* Sun Bowl HEAVY HITTER on Virginia Tech +7.5 The Key: Virginia Tech head coach Frank Beamer almost always has his team playing its best football at the end of the season. VA Tech has won or lost by fewer than 7.5 points in 10 of its last 11 bowl games, and I'm not hesitating to get behind this sweet 10-1 trend. In addition, you want to back teams like Virginia Tech that average 100-140.0 rushing yards per game when they are up against a team that allows 140-190.0 rushing yards per game, provided they are 7 games or more into the schedule and are a team from a BCS conference playing another team from a BCS league. Doing so has produced a 44-16 ATS mark since 1992. It is also worth noting that UCLA is on a 6-17 ATS slide in road/neutral field contests when playing with a week or more of rest. The Bruins are also on a 3-12 ATS skid when playing away from home following an upset win over a conference opponent. Take the points.
12-28-13	Miami (Florida) +3.5 v. Louisville	Top	9-36	Loss	-105	29 h 11 m	Show
7* Russell Athletic Bowl HEAVY HITTER on Miami +3.5 The Key: Louisville is 11-1 but benefited from playing a very soft schedule. Miami was tested much more in the ACC and no doubt has what it takes to pull off this upset. Louisville's offensive and defensive numbers look good but were bolstered by its weak schedule. Besides, teams headed up by coach Al Golden have been up for the challenge against stiff competition. The Hurricanes are 8-1 ATS under Golden versus good offensive teams that average 5.9 yards per play or more. Golden's Miami teams are also 9-2 ATS versus teams with good rushing defenses that limit opponents to 120 rushing yards per game or fewer. In addition, teams headed up by Golden are 8-0 ATS all-time after leading their previous game by 17 points or more at the half. They have won by an average score of 30.5 to 15.3 in this situation. His squads are also 8-0 ATS all-time after scoring 24 points or more in the first half of their last game, winning by an average score of 35.1 to 13.6 in this spot. Miami finished the season strong following a rough three-game stretch, and the momentum it created will give it a ton of confidence here. Also, this is Miami's first bowl game following a two-year ban so the players that have been around will be very excited for this game. Louisville had hopes of going undefeated and playing in the BCS National Championship game. At the very least, it expected to be playing in a BCS bowl like it did last season when it defeated Florida in the Sugar Bowl. The Cardinals will have a tough time summoning the type of motivation for this game that they did for last season's bowl contest. Take the points.
12-27-13	Washington v. BYU +3.5	Top	31-16	Loss	-110	12 h 1 m	Show
7* Fight Hunger Bowl HEAVY HITTER on BYU +3.5 The Key: The BYU Cougars have been a tremendous investment this time of year. They have won six of eight bowl appearances under Mendenhall and are 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four. The Cougars are also 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games. BYU has been a phenomenal underdog recently because of how solid it is defensively. The Cougars have given up just 21.3 ppg this season and are an outstanding 9-1 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons, winning these games outright by an average of 4.8 points. The Huskies are dealing with the loss of Steve Sarkisian, which doesn't help their cause. Take the points.
12-26-13	Pittsburgh +5 v. Bowling Green	Top	30-27	Win	100	73 h 5 m	Show
7* Pizza Bowl HEAVY HITTER on Pitt +5 The Key: Bowling Green enters off a satisfying win over Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship game, but that win came under Dave Clawson, who has left to take the job at Wake Forest. Clawson's absence will be felt here. While the win over Northern Illinois looks impressive, there is reason to believe the Falcons are a fraud. They were blown out by an Indiana team that finished 5-7 and fell to a Mississippi State team that finished 6-6. Pitt showed what it is capable of with impressive wins over Duke and Notre Dame, and it will be very motivated here with an opportunity to notch its first winning season since 2010. The Panthers have been phenomenal in bounce-back spots at 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games following a loss. They are also 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Take the points.
12-07-13	Missouri +2.5 v. Auburn	Top	42-59	Loss	-105	73 h 60 m	Show
7* SEC Championship HEAVY HITTER (CBS) on Missouri +2.5 The Key: Expect a letdown from Auburn following last week's improbable win over hated rival Alabama. Plus, I feel strongly that Mizzou is the better team, and its defense will be the difference Saturday. Auburn depends on its running game to move the football, but it won't get anything easy against a Mizzou stop unit that ranks 14th in the country against the run. Mizzou has a more balanced offensive attack, and I look for it to have a lot of success through the air against an Auburn defense that ranks 100th in the nation against the pass. Mizzou has taken exceptional care of the football with just six turnovers in its last eight games. It didn't commit a single turnover in last week's win over Texas A&M, which is significant because it is 8-0 ATS this season following a game where it committed one of no turnovers. It is also significant that Missouri covered the number last game as they are 6-0 ATS when playing away from home following one or more consecutive wins against the spread the last two seasons. The Missouri Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Take the points.
11-30-13	Boston College v. Syracuse +3	Top	31-34	Win	100	29 h 39 m	Show
7* NCAAF Game of the Week on Syracuse +3 The Key: I'll back the Orange at home on Senior Day with bowl eligibility on the line. Syracuse has been a steady investment at home where it has gone 6-1 ATS in its last 7. Boston College, on the other hand, has been a poor investment on the road where it is 2-9 ATS in its last 11. Syracuse's home success has stemmed from a defense that has given up just 16.6 ppg and 299 ypg at home this season. Boston College is entirely reliant on its running game, but it will have a tough time finding running room against a Syracuse stop unit that is holding opponents to just 2.6 ypc at home. The Orange held Pitt to only 21 rushing yards last week, and that's significant because they are on an 18-3 ATS run in home games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. Take Syracuse.
11-23-13	Vanderbilt v. Tennessee -2.5	Top	14-10	Loss	-110	101 h 17 m	Show
7* SEC Game of the Year on Tennessee -2.5 The Key: The Vols have lost three in a row, but they aren't about to call it a season. It's senior day, and they still have an excellent chance to become bowl eligible with Kentucky next week. They have had a bye week to prepare, and they will be extremely motivated by the haunting memory of the 41-18 beating they took at Vandy last season. That loss ended a six-game winning streak in the series. To say history is on Tennessee's side is an understatement. The Vols are on a 71-10-2 run in the series and are 28-2 in the last 30. They have won 3 straight at home. You want to fade road underdogs off a home win against a conference foe and up against an opponent that's off 2 straight conference losses where they allowed 31 points or more. Doing so has produced a 27-8 ATS record the last 10 seasons. It's also worth noting that the Vols are 13-3 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992. Take Tennessee.
11-23-13	Duke v. Wake Forest +6	Top	28-21	Loss	-110	94 h 17 m	Show
7* ACC Game of the Month on Wake Forest +6 The Key: Wake has lost three in a row, but it isn't about to pack it in, not on senior day with bowl eligibility still a possibility. The Demon Deacons will be further motivated by last season's 34-27 home loss to Duke which snapped a 12-game winning streak in the series. While Duke is still fighting for a Coastal division title, I believe it comes into this one overconfident following a big win over Miami. It is also to Wake's benefit that it has had an extra week to prepare for this game. The Demon Deacons are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home. Duke is 0-7 ATS in road games the last 3 seasons when it checks in off 2 straight conference games. It has lost by an average score of 42.3 to 20.1 in this situation. The Blue Devils are also on a 1-9 ATS skid in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread. They have lost by an average score of 31.7 to 14.2 in this spot. Take Wake.
11-16-13	Cincinnati v. Rutgers	Top	52-17	Loss	-110	24 h 50 m	Show
7* AAC Game of the Year on Rutgers pk The Key: Cincinnati is 7-2, but it hasn't played anyone yet. Despite a soft schedule, the Bearcats have struggled on the road where they defeated 0-10 Miami Ohio only 14-0 and lost to 2-6 South Florida 26-20. Rutgers has won two straight against Cincinnati by scores of 20-3 and 10-3 and will benefit from having had an extra week to prepare. Rutgers should also benefit from having already stepped on the field against several quality opponents. The Scarlet Knights still need a win to become bowl eligible so they will be lacking no incentive. The Scarlet Knights are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a bye week. They are on a perfect 8-0 SU and ATS run at home following a bye when up against a team that checks in off a straight up win. Take Rutgers.
11-15-13	Washington +3 v. UCLA	Top	31-41	Loss	-105	29 h 39 m	Show
7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Washington +3 The Key: You want to play on road teams when the line is +3 to -3 that check in off two consecutive double-digit wins against conference rivals if the "play on" team has a win percentage of 60-80% and is matched up against a team with a winning record. That's because doing so has produced a 37-12 ATS mark since 1992. Teams fitting these parameters have won by 7.2 points on average. It is also worth noting that this system is 5-0 ATS the last three seasons. Washington has showed me more in games against like opponents. It played Stanford to a three-point game while UCLA lost to the Cardinal by 14. Washington beat Arizona by 18 while the Bruins managed a win of only five points against the Wildcats. The Huskies also played Oregon tougher than UCLA and beat Colorado by a larger margin. UCLA defeated Cal by three more points than Washington did, but the Huskies racked up 154 more yards than the Bruins did against the Golden Bears. Take the points.
11-14-13	Georgia Tech +11.5 v. Clemson	Top	31-55	Loss	-105	9 h 10 m	Show
7* ACC Game of the Week on Georgia Tech +11.5 The Key: This is a huge game for Georgia Tech as it is currently sitting atop the Coastal division. Plus, the Yellow Jackets will be out for a little revenge. They lost 47-31 at Clemson last season, but don't forget that they actually led 31-30 in the fourth quarter of that game. Clemson connected on a two-point conversion after scoring the go-ahead touchdown. Then, Georgia Tech's Chris Milton slipped as he picked up the ensuing kickoff, giving the Yellow Jackets the ball on their two-yard line. Two plays later, Clemson's Spencer Shuey tackled Orion Smith in the end zone for a safety. Then, of course, Tech had to kick right back to Clemson. That's a fluky ending if I've ever seen one, and the Yellow Jackets will be out to prove that they are better than they showed in last season's meeting. Clemson will have no answer for GTs running game, which will keep the clock moving. On the other side, I expect a Yellow Jacket defense that ranks 13th nationally to do a much better job against Clemson than it did last year. The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 versus a team with a winning record. The underdog is 14-5 ATS in the last 19 meetings. Georgia Tech has won 7 of the last 10 meetings and has won or lost by fewer than this number in 17 of the last 22 meetings. Take the points.
11-09-13	Arizona State v. Utah +7	Top	20-19	Win	100	74 h 34 m	Show
7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Utah +7 The Key: Back home, motivated by back-to-back losses on the road and having had a bye week to prepare, the Utes will give Arizona State all it wants and more Saturday afternoon. Utah still needs two wins in its final four games to reach bowl eligibility so it will be going after this one with all it has. Plus, the Utes were stomped 37-7 at ASU last season so they will be out for some serious revenge. Utah has been one tough cookie at home where it is 3-2 on the season, upset Stanford and hasn't lost by more than 7 points. ASU, meanwhile, hasn't been as strong away from home, where it is 1-2 this season. Utah is 27-12 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992. The Utes are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games following a loss, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games and 52-31 ATS as an underdog since 1992. Utah didn't force a single turnover in its last game, but it is 14-2 ATS all-time under coach Whittingham after a game where it forced no turnovers and has won by an average score of 36.2 to 19.4 in this situation. Take the points.
11-02-13	Minnesota v. Indiana -9.5	Top	42-39	Loss	-106	97 h 9 m	Show
7* Big Ten Game of the Month on Indiana -9.5 The Key: If Indiana hopes to punch a bowl ticket, this is a game it must have. Back home following back-to-back losses on the road and having had an extra week to prepare, I fully expect the Hoosiers to roll here. We find Minnesota in a big letdown spot as it became bowl eligible last week with an upset win over Nebraska. Satisfied by their accomplishment, the Golden Gophers will come out flat. You want to play against road underdogs that check in off a home win over a conference foe when they are matched up against an opponent that has allowed 31 points or more in two straight defeats to conference rivals. That's because doing so has produced a 27-5 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Teams fitting this system have lost by 15.9 points on average. Also, this system is 6-0 ATS the last three seasons. Indiana is 6-0 ATS all-time in home games under coach Kevin Wilson after one or more consecutive losses against the spread. The Hoosiers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games versus a team with a winning road record. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings with a 21.8-point average margin of victory. Lay the points.
10-30-13	Cincinnati v. Memphis +3	Top	34-21	Loss	-105	32 h 9 m	Show
7* NCAAF National TV Annihilator on Memphis +3 The Key: Memphis is a better team than its 1-5 record leads you to believe. The Tigers played Middle Tennessee State to a two-point game on the road, and they played 19th-ranked Central Florida to a seven-point game at home. That game was tied with two minutes remaining. Memphis could just as easily be 3-3 right now with a couple pretty nice wins under its belt. At home and motivated by a 0-3 conference start, I love Memphis' chances of pulling off the upset. The Tigers are on a 7-0 ATS run when checking into a contest off three straight losses to conference opponents. The Bearcats haven't been the same team on the road where they are 1-2 (0-3 ATS) with a loss to lowly South Florida. They rolled UConn last time out, but they are on a 0-6 ATS slide following a win by 21 or more points. They are also on a 0-6 ATS skid after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game. Take the points.
10-26-13	North Texas v. Southern Miss +11.5	Top	55-14	Loss	-110	78 h 5 m	Show
7* C-USA Game of the Year on So. Miss +11.5 The Key: So. Miss is 0-6, but it has played four road games to this point against the likes of Nebraska, Arkansas, Boise State and East Carolina. I believe it has an excellent opportunity to break into the win column here. North Texas won at Louisiana Tech last week, but that's not enough for this team to be trusted laying double-digits on the road. The Mean Green are just 1-7 in their last 8 and 3-15 in their last 18 road games. The North Texas defense has been pretty good the last two weeks, but consider that the Mean Green are 0-7 ATS in road games after holding opponents to 17 points or less in two straight games since they were reinstated to Division 1-A in 1995. They have lost by an average score of 41.0 to 15.9 in this situation. So. Miss was held to 3.64 yards per play last week, but it is 10-2 ATS in home games after being held to 3.75 yards or less per play since 1992. It has won by an average score of 31.2 to 16.3 in this situation. Take the points.
10-26-13	Notre Dame v. Air Force +20	Top	45-10	Loss	-110	76 h 5 m	Show
7* Non-Conference Game of the Month on Air Force +20 The Key: Notre Dame hasn't played a true road game since Sept. 14, and it has been far from dominant away from home. The Fighting Irish were favored by 17 at Purdue in their most recent road game, and they only walked away with a 31-24 victory. In fact, they haven't won by more than 17 points in any of their last eight true road contests. I don't like Notre Dame's chances of covering this hefty number on the road against an Air Force squad that has had since Oct. 10 to prepare. You want to take underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points that have failed to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4 games if they're matched up against an opponent that has covered the number in 2 of its last 3 games. That's because teams fitting this situation are 207-125 (62.3%) ATS since 1992. Notre Dame is consistently overvalued. It is just 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games overall and 14-34 ATS after having won 4 out of its last 5 games since 1992. The Irish are also only 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 versus teams with a losing record. Take the points.
10-26-13	Georgia Tech v. Virginia +10	Top	35-25	Push	0	72 h 36 m	Show
7* ACC Game of the Week on Virginia +10 The Key: Georgia Tech was our ACC Game of the Week last week. Fueled by three consecutive defeats, it rolled Syracuse 56-0. We'll fade the Yellow Jackets this week, however. First of all, they are 0-6 ATS dating back to 2011 when checking into a game off a home win over a conference opponent. They have lost by an average score of 34.0 to 23.6 in this situation. I expect Virginia to be extremely motivated here after it blew a 22-0 lead against Duke last week. Last season's 56-20 loss at Georgia Tech will only add fuel to the fire. The Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home. They are also 9-1 in their last 10 home games against Georgia Tech. Lastly, you want to fade teams like Georgia Tech that held their last opponent to 225 total yards or less if they have a +/- 0.6 yards per play differential and are matched up against a team that is outgained by 0.6 to 1.2 yards per play. Doing so has produced a 2-0 ATS record this season and a 15-1 ATS mark the last 5 seasons.
10-19-13	Syracuse v. Georgia Tech -8	Top	0-56	Win	100	94 h 21 m	Show
7* ACC Game of the Week on Georgia Tech -8 The Key: Motivated by three consecutive defeats, I expect Georgia Tech to roll Saturday. It doesn't bode well for Syracuse that it is coming off a big upset win at NC State. That's because the Orange are 0-8 ATS since 1992 following an upset win of 14 points or more. They have lost by an average score of 39.5 to 15.0 in this situation. In addition, the numbers say to fade any team in Weeks 5-9 that checks in off a win over a conference foe as an underdog of 6.0 points or more. Doing so has produced a 60-30 ATS mark the last five seasons. The Orange are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games following an upset victory over a conference opponent. Lay the points.
10-19-13	Texas Tech v. West Virginia +6.5	Top	37-27	Loss	-106	94 h 51 m	Show
7* Big 12 Game of the Year on West Virginia +6.5 The Key: This is a highly motivated spot for West Virginia. The Mountaineers were embarrassed 73-42 at Baylor in their last game. They gave up 864 yards in the contest. As if that defeat doesn't provide enough motivation, the Mountaineers will also draw from last season's 49-14 loss at Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are 6-0, but they have played a very soft schedule to this point. Keep in mind that West Virginia upset Oklahoma State and gave Oklahoma all it wanted. I think Texas Tech won't be able to help but look ahead to next week's revenge game at Oklahoma. The Sooners blasted the Red Raiders 41-20 last season. It is also to West Virginia's benefit that it has had an extra week to prepare. The Mountaineers were outgained on the ground by 350 yards by Baylor, but they are a perfect 7-0 ATS since 1992 after being outrushed by 200 yards or more. You also want to take any team that has allowed an average of 525.0 yards or more in its last three games if it is an average offensive team that averages 4.8-5.6 yards per play and is matched up against a good defensive team that allows 4.2-4.8 yards per play. Doing so has produced a 25-5 ATS result since 1992. This system is a near-perfect 8-1 ATS the last five seasons. Take the points.
10-12-13	Nebraska v. Purdue +14.5	Top	44-7	Loss	-115	94 h 30 m	Show
7* Big Ten Game of the Year on Purdue +14.5 The Key: This is a tough spot for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are heading out on the road for the first time this season after enjoying the comfort of their home field for five games. Purdue will benefit from having had a bye week to prepare and should be very focused after a disappointing 55-24 home loss to Northern Illinois in its last game. The Cornhuskers are just 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 road games and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games versus a team with a losing record. The Boilermakers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a double-digit loss at home. Nebraska put a hurting on Illinois last week, but it is just 15-33 ATS in road games off a home win by 17 points or more since 1992. Also, you want to take underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points that have failed to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4 games when they're up against an opponent that has covered the spread in two out of its last 3 games. Doing so has produced a 206-121 (63%) ATS record since 1992. This system is a perfect 4-0 ATS this season. Lastly, Nebraska is 5-15 ATS after covering the spread in 2 of its last 3 games under coach Pelini. Take the points.
10-10-13	San Diego State v. Air Force +4	Top	27-20	Loss	-110	33 h 11 m	Show
7* NCAAF HEAVY HITTER on Air Force +4 The Key: Air Force has lost five in a row, but three of those were on the road and the two home losses came against quality Utah State and Wyoming teams. As if a 5-game skid isn't enough motivation, the Falcons will also draw from a 3-game losing streak to San Diego State. Last year's 28-9 beating at SDSU assures us Air Force will be very hungry. Four turnovers killed the Falcons in last season's meeting as they outgained the Aztecs 393-268 with 320 of those yards coming on the ground. SDSU has struggled this season against good running teams. It lost at home to an Eastern Illinois squad that racked up 172 rushing yards. It was also smoked by Ohio State (263 rushing yards) and was fortunate to beat a Nevada team that gained 177 yards on the ground last week. The Aztecs needed OT to outlast Nevada, which outgained them and had seven more minutes of possession time. That was a home game for SDSU. Air Force played Nevada to a three-point game on the road Sept. 28 and really should have won leading by 12 in the fourth quarter. What happened against this common opponent and the margin by which Air Force outgained the Aztecs in last season's matchup shows these teams are more evenly matched than what this line is saying. I don't see SDSU having an answer for Air Force's running game, and that will be the difference. Lastly, the Aztecs are 1-8 ATS all-time after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game under coach Rocky Long. They have lost by an average score of 26.0 to 23.8 in this spot. Take the points.
10-05-13	North Carolina State v. Wake Forest +8.5	Top	13-28	Win	100	77 h 39 m	Show
7* ACC Game of the Year on Wake Forest +8.5 The Key: Wake Forest just got smoked by a Clemson team that NC State played to a 12-point game, but I'm not ready to drink the Wolfpack Kool-Aid. It should be noted that the Wolfpack got Clemson at home while the Demon Deacons played the Tigers on the road, and that had a lot to do with the differing margins of losses. NC State clubbed Wake 37-6 last season, but that game was at NC State. Things have gone much differently when the Wolfpack travel to Winston-Salem. The Demon Deacons have won five straight at home against the Wolfpack by an average of 11 points. They have also won seven of their last eight at home in the series with the lone loss during this span coming by only three points. The Wolfpack are 0-8 ATS in these games. The Wolfpack are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings overall, and the home team is 14-3 ATS in the last 17 meetings. It is also worth noting that the Wolfpack are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 road games and 9-27 ATS in their last 36 as a road favorite. The Demon Deacons are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss. Take the points.
10-03-13	UCLA v. Utah +6.5	Top	34-27	Loss	-115	11 h 8 m	Show
7* Pac-12 Game of the Week on Utah +6.5 The Key: UCLA is getting too much respect on the road. It has a pair of blowout wins at home against a couple patsies. It did beat Nebraska on the road (I'm not sold on the Huskers) but trailed 21-3 in that game. Utah has played a much more difficult schedule with in-state rivalry wins over Utah State and BYU and an overtime loss to Oregon State. Those three high-intensity games will benefit the Utes tonight. UCLA won last season's meeting 21-14 at home, but it hasn't fared as well on the road in the series. It has lost its last two trips to Utah by 25 and 38 points. Both teams are coming off a bye, but Utah has been the far better investment in such spots. UCLA is on a 5-17 ATS slide in road games after a bye week while Utah is on a 28-14 ATS run after a bye. Zooming in, the Bruins are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a bye week while the Utes are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a bye week. Utah has been an awesome underdog investment over the years. It is 51-28 ATS as an underdog since 1992, including 30-14 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points during this time frame. Take the points.
09-28-13	Miami (Florida) v. South Florida +18.5	Top	49-21	Loss	-106	95 h 31 m	Show
7* NCAAF Game of the Week on South Florida +18.5 The Key: Motivated by an ugly 0-3 start and further motivated by last season's embarrassing 40-9 loss at Miami, I expect South Florida to give the Hurricanes a lot more than they bargained for. The Bulls will benefit greatly from having last week off to prepare for this game. Miami is riding high following a 77-7 victory over Savannah State and will already be looking ahead to next week's conference opener against Georgia Tech. In addition, this is Miami's first road game of the season. Things typically don't go as smoothly for teams when they venture out on the road for the first time. Miami is on an 18-33 ATS slide following a cover as a double-digit favorite. It is also on a 13-27 ATS skid in road games after holding opponents to 17 points or less in 2 straight games. Teams headed up by Willie Taggart are 23-4 ATS all-time in the underdog role. Take the points.
09-27-13	Utah State v. San Jose State +10	Top	40-12	Loss	-115	12 h 25 m	Show
7* NCAAF HEAVY HITTER on San Jose State +10 The Key: Motivated by back-to-back double-digit defeats on the road to Stanford and Minnesota, and with last season's 22-point upset loss to Utah State also lighting a fire, San Jose State will be all business when it takes the field tonight. The Spartans have been a terrific investment at 13-3 ATS in all lined games since the beginning of last season. They are an equally impressive 12-3 ATS as an underdog since the start of the 2011 season. The Spartans gave up 43 points and 353 rushing yards last week. However, they are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Take the points.
09-21-13	Cincinnati v. Miami (OH) +22	Top	14-0	Win	100	99 h 2 m	Show
7* NCAAF Game of the Week on Miami Ohio +22 The Key: This game is all about revenge for a Miami Ohio squad that was crushed by 38 at Cincinnati last season. The Bearcats have defeated the Redhawks by margins of 38, 27, 42, 24, 25 and 37 the past six years so the fact this line opened at 24 or less at a lot of books tells us oddsmakers are looking to trap the public. Miami Ohio has had a bye week to prepare. That's big. Plus, it will be motivated by poor performances in its first two games in addition to its recent matchups with the Bearcats. Cincy rolled against Northwestern State last week so it will be feeling pretty good about itself as it goes up against a school it has dominated. I just don't see the Bearcats giving their full attention and focus to Miami Ohio here. The home team has covered the number in 4 of the last 5 meetings. Also, Cincy is on a 0-5 ATS slide following a victory of more than 20 points and a 4-15 ATS skid after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in its previous game. With extra preparation time and a huge motivational advantage, I fully expect the Redhawks to keep this one within the number.
09-20-13	Boise State v. Fresno State -3	Top	40-41	Loss	-108	81 h 36 m	Show
7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Fresno State -3 The Key: To say this is a game Fresno State wants badly is an understatement. The Bulldogs have lost 7 straight in the series and will be out for some serious revenge as a result. Unlike most years, however, Fresno State boasts the more talented team. Ultimately, I believe reigning MWC Offensive Player of the Year Derek Carr will be the difference. Carr has completed 71.2 percent of his throws for 661 yards with 8 TDs and 1 INT this season. He completed 29 of 43 passes for 266 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT at Boise State in last season's 20-10 loss, and I expect him to be even more effective against a Bronco stop unit that returns just 4 starters. This defense gave up 592 yards in a 38-6 loss at Washington in Week 1. It allowed Keith Price to connect on 23 of 31 passes for 2 TDs and 1 INT. The Broncos are vulnerable in the back, and I believe it costs them in this one. Fresno State is 7-0 ATS all-time under coach Tim DeRuyter versus soft pass defenses like Boise State that allow opponents a 58% completion rate or better. It has defeated these foes by an average score of 41.4 to 20.7. Lay the points.
09-14-13	Ball State v. North Texas +3.5	Top	27-34	Win	100	51 h 45 m	Show
7* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Year on North Texas +3.5 The Key: I believe the wrong team is favored here, and I expect North Texas to win this game outright but we'll take the generous 3.5 points for insurance. I played against the Mean Green last week and cashed in on Ohio as my NCAAF Game of the Week. The fact they have just 8 road wins going back to 2006 played into my decision. But now, they are back at home where they crushed Idaho in Week 1. They are 8-3 in their last 11 home games, including 2-0 in their last 2. Ball State rolled its first two opponents, but both games were at home. Things won't go as smoothly as it goes out on the road for the first time. A closer look at its first two games suggests it wasn't as dominant as the final scores look. The Cardinals outgained Illinois State by 64 yards and Army by a single yard. There are certainly issues on defense, and North Texas has the type of balanced offense to exploit those issues. Illinois State got anything it wanted through the air on Ball State in Week 1, and then Army got anything it wanted on the ground in Week 2. North Texas has shown it can move the ball both ways. The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 20 points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The Mean Green are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a SU loss and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss. Take the points.
09-07-13	North Texas v. Ohio -4	Top	21-27	Win	100	31 h 54 m	Show
7* NCAAF Game of the Week on Ohio -4 The Key: Look for Ohio to bounce back in a big way following the beating it took at Louisville. The Bobcats are a much better team than they showed in Week 1 and will prove it here on their home field. The Bobcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. North Texas rolled over Idaho at home last week, but it hasn't been the same team on the road where it went 1-6 last season. The North Texas defense allowed nearly 400 yards last week but benefited from 3 takeaways. It doesn't figure to get much help from Ohio, which typically does a great job of protecting the ball. The Bobcats gave it away just once last week, which is significant because they are on a 21-8 ATS run in home games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers. Keep in mind that McCarney's squads are 4-16 ATS all-time in road games after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers. The Mean Green are a soft 4-18 ATS in their last 22 games following a victory and have lost their last 4 road by an average of 16.8 points. Lay the points.
08-31-13	Boise State v. Washington Huskies -3.5	Top	6-38	Win	100	17 h 27 m	Show
7* NCAAF Game of the Week on Washington -3.5 The Key: This game is all about revenge for Washington, which fell 28-26 to Boise State in last year's Las Vegas Bowl. Keeps in mind the Huskies outgained the Broncos in that contest but were let down by 3 turnovers. Besides the revenge factor, Washington returns 18 starters while Boise State returns just 9. In addition, Washington will be taking the field at Husky Stadium for the first time since 2011 so it and the fan base will be pumped. I don't see Boise State coming in and stealing one in this atmosphere against a more experienced team. The Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. Lay the points.
08-29-13	Ole Miss -3 v. Vanderbilt	Top	39-35	Win	100	56 h 24 m	Show
7* NCAAF HEAVY HITTER on Ole Miss -3 The Key: This game is all about payback for Ole Miss. The Rebels have lost three straight in the series, including a one-point heart-breaker last year, and will be out for some serious revenge as a result. Ole Miss returns 19 starters, and head man Hugh Freeze is one heck of a coach. Teams he's headed up are 20-5 ATS all-time. Vandy returns just 13 starters and lost key pieces on both sides of the football. Plus, you want to fade teams in the first week of the season that finished last season with three or more consecutive covers, provided they won 60.0 percent to 80.0 percent of their games and are matched up against an opponent that posted a winning record. That's because doing so has produced a 25-4 ATS mark the last 20 seasons. Lay the points.
01-07-13	Alabama -9.5 v. Notre Dame	Top	42-14	Win	100	79 h 17 m	Show
7* BCS Championship HEAVY HITTER on Alabama -9.5 The Key: Notre Dame is undefeated but is very fortunate to be. 2 of its wins came in OT and 2 more of its victories came by only 3 points. Alabama is the better team on both sides of the football. It ranks No. 1 in the nation in total defense with 246.0 yards allowed per game and posted that number while playing a tough schedule. The Fighting Irish rank No. 6 in total defense with 286.8 yards allowed per game. Notre Dame gives up .4 less points per game, but it played the weaker schedule. Alabama has a larger edge on the offensive side of the football where it ranks 37th in total offense with 439.9 ypg and 14th in scoring with 38.5 ppg. The Irish rank 48th in total offense with 421.3 ypg and 76th in scoring with 26.8 ppg. Notre Dame is on a 5-21 ATS slide versus excellent defensive teams that give up 285 yards or fewer per game. It has lost these games by an average of 10.4 points. In the end, I just don't see the Notre Dame offense being able to make enough plays to keep this one within the number. That was the case for LSU in last season's title game when it was shut out 21-0 by the Tide. Lay the number.
01-05-13	Pittsburgh v. Ole Miss -3	Top	17-38	Win	100	24 h 6 m	Show
7* Bowl Game of the Year on Ole Miss -3 The Key: Pitt took Notre Dame down to the wire but was outgained 522-308 and benefited from 3 turnovers. Overall, Ole Miss played the much tougher schedule and still managed to post as many wins as Pitt. The Rebels played Alabama, Georgia, LSU and Texas A&M and took the latter two right down to the wire. Pitt posted solid defensive numbers but did so against weaker competition. It will have a tough time slowing down an Ole Miss offense that averages 30.9 points and 426.8 ypg. Hugh Freeze's teams are 19-5 ATS all-time at the FBS level and 12-3 ATS in the favorite role. Basically, I feel Ole Miss is showing great value laying a small number against a Pitt team that is being overvalued because of its performance at Notre Dame. A closer look at that one shows it wasn't as close as what the final score looks. Lay the points.
01-04-13	Texas A&M v. Oklahoma +3.5	Top	41-13	Loss	-115	11 h 28 m	Show
7* Cotton Bowl HEAVY HITTER on Oklahoma +3.5 The Key: Johnny Manziel is the Heisman Trophy winner, but I like the experience of Landry Jones in this game. Plus, I don't expect "Johnny Football" to be as effective against a defense that has had over a month to prepare for him, especially without offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury calling the plays. The Texas A&M pass defense is suspect as it ranked 84th in the country with 248.4 ypg allowed. Oklahoma, which ranked 5th in passing offense with 340.5 ypg, has the passing attack to take advantage. The Aggies are on a 6-17 ATS slide in road/neutral field games versus excellent passing teams that average 275 or more passing yards per game. The Aggies are also 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games versus a team with a winning record, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 bowl games and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games. The Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. Also, Oklahoma has won each of its last 3 bowl games and 8 of its last 9 matchups against Texas A&M. Take the points.
01-03-13	Kansas State v. Oregon -7.5	Top	17-35	Win	100	11 h 5 m	Show
7* Fiesta Bowl HEAVY HITTER on Oregon -7.5 The Key: The Ducks lost one game this season to a very good Stanford team that won the Rose Bowl. They defeated their other 11 opponents by at least 11 points. Oregon is the superior team. K-State will need the Ducks to cough up the football several times to have a chance, and I don't see it happening. Oregon has only committed 3 turnovers in its last 5 games while forcing 17. The fact it has forced at least 2 turnovers in each of its last 5 games is significant. That's because the Ducks are 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Kelly when playing away from home after 5 consecutive games of forcing 2 or more turnovers. They are also 8-0 ATS in road/neutral field games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Ducks are on a 6-0 ATS run versus teams like K-State that commit 1 or less turnovers/game. They are also 6-0 ATS when playing away from home versus excellent offensive teams that average 6.25 yards or more per play over the last 2 seasons. They have defeated these teams by an average of 17.5 points. Lay the points.
01-02-13	Louisville +14 v. Florida	Top	33-23	Win	100	12 h 42 m	Show
7* Sugar Bowl HEAVY HITTER on Louisville +14 The Key: Oddsmakers are asking too much of a Florida offense that finished the season ranked 103rd in the nation in total offense with 338.0 yards per game. A Louisville stop unit that ranks a respectable 24th in the country in total defense with 344.8 yards allowed per game should be up for the challenge. The Cardinals have never lost against the spread under coach Strong when matched up against a top-level team that carries a winning percentage greater than 75%. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS versus these foes and have defeated them by an average of 0.4 points. Take the points as Louisville keeps this one closer than the oddsmakers think.
01-01-13	Wisconsin v. Stanford -6	Top	14-20	Push	0	54 h 17 m	Show
7* Rose Bowl HEAVY HITTER on Stanford -6 The Key: Take away Wisconsin's running game, and they don't have much to work with offensively. Stanford has the ability to do just that as it ranks 3rd in the country against the run with just 88.0 ypg allowed. The Cardinal are 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Shaw in games played outside Palo Alto versus good offensive teams that average 5.9 yards per play or more. They have defeated these foes by an average of 9.6 points. They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS under Shaw when playing away from home in the second half of the season. They have won these contests by an average of 16.7 points. The Badgers cruised in the Big Ten title game, racking up 70 points on Nebraska, but are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. They are also 0-5 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Lay the points.
12-31-12	Iowa State v. Tulsa +1.5	Top	17-31	Win	100	31 h 46 m	Show
7* Liberty Bowl HEAVY HITTER on Tulsa +1.5 The Key: Tulsa lost at Iowa State clear back on Sept. 1, but I expect it to have its revenge in this neutral field battle. The Iowa State defense has struggled this season and those struggles should continue against an explosive Tulsa offense that averages 461.6 yards and 35.0 points per game. It also doesn't help matters that Iowa State is expected to be without star linebacker Jake Knott, who is recovering from a shoulder injury. Tulsa is balanced enough offensively to torch the Cyclones on the ground and through the air. ISU is just 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games played away from home versus teams that average 230 rushing yards or more per game. It has lost these games by an average of 28.8 points. Tulsa ranks 11th in the country in rushing with 241.1 ypg. The Golden Hurricane are also 7-0 ATS the last 3 seasons in games played away from home versus teams that allow their opponents to complete 58% or more of their passes. They have defeated these foes by an average of 13.4 points. ISU has given up a 61.3% completion percentage this season. Take Tulsa.
12-29-12	TCU v. Michigan State +3	Top	16-17	Win	100	30 h 14 m	Show
7* Bowl Game of the Week (Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl) on Michigan State +3 The Key: I really like Michigan State catching points here because of its defense. The Spartans were in every game this season behind a stop unit that ranked 4th in total defense and 10th in scoring defense. Sparty has wins over Boise State and Wisconsin and also took Ohio State and Michigan right down to the wire. BCS Championship-bound Notre Dame is the only team to beat the Spartans by more than four points this season. Michigan State is 8-1 ATS when playing away from the last two seasons versus teams that have a winning record. TCU is 0-7 ATS when playing away from home the last three seasons versus non-conference opponents. It is also 0-5 ATS in its last 5 neutral site games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 bowl games. Take the points.
12-28-12	Rutgers v. Virginia Tech -2	Top	10-13	Win	100	25 h 40 m	Show
7* Russell Athletic Bowl HEAVY HITTER on Virginia Tech -2 The Key: I can't imagine Rutgers is completely invested in this game. It lost its last two games of the regular season and an opportunity to play in a BCS bowl along with it. Virginia Tech, meanwhile, has to be very excited about this opportunity considering it looked like it could miss out on the postseason all together when it was 4-6. The Hokies are the more talented team, and I believe the month of preparation time will serve them very well in this game. Their advantage in the level of talent has long been on display as they are 11-0 in their last 11 meetings versus Rutgers and have won these by an average of 29.3 points. Lay the points.
12-27-12	Cincinnati v. Duke +9.5	Top	48-34	Loss	-105	9 h 10 m	Show
7* Belk Bowl HEAVY HITTER on Duke +9.5 The Key: The Blue Devils struggled defensively in the last quarter of the season but have had over a month to get things sorted out and to gear up for one opponent. Besides, the Bearcats are 0-7 ATS when playing outside Cincinnati the last two decades versus teams that give up 34 or more points/game. They lost these seven contests by an average of 9.5 points. Duke will be the more focused team as it has retained its coach while Cincy is dealing with the departure of Butch Jones. Take the points.
12-26-12	Central Michigan v. Western Kentucky -5	Top	24-21	Loss	-105	126 h 19 m	Show
7* Pizza Bowl HEAVY HITTER on W. Kentucky -5 The Key: The Chipps haven't been a good underdog as they are on a 5-16 ATS slide in the role. They are 1-5 ATS as an underdog this season and never should have beat Iowa as they were down by 8 points with 2 minutes remaining. Central Michigan has been exposed against worthy competition as it is on a 0-7 ATS skid when matched up against teams with a winning record. It has lost to these teams by an average of 20.1 points. Lay the number with the Hilltoppers.
12-22-12	Washington +6 v. Boise State	Top	26-28	Win	100	27 h 48 m	Show
7* Las Vegas Bowl HEAVY HITTER on Washington +6 The Key: The Huskies aren't getting the respect they deserve here. We're talking about a team that defeated Pac-12 Champion Stanford. Boise State is a good defensive team, but it has struggled offensively, especially against good defenses. The Broncos lost to Michigan State and beat BYU by a point. They have their work cut out for themselves trying to cover this number against a Washington defense that ranks 30th in the country with 353.0 ypg allowed. Take the points.
12-21-12	Ball State v. Central Florida -7	Top	17-38	Win	100	8 h 57 m	Show
7* Beef O Brady's Bowl HEAVY HITTER on Central Florida -7 The Key: UCF's only losses have come to a very good Tulsa team (twice) and to BCS conference foes Ohio State and Missouri. The Knights have won each of their other 9 games by 7 points or more. With this is mind, I have no problem laying the points with UCF this evening. It is the far superior defensive team and defense matters the most this time of year. That was evident last night when BYU held San Diego State to 263 yards and forced 5 turnovers. Lay the number.
12-20-12	BYU -3 v. San Diego State	Top	23-6	Win	100	9 h 1 m	Show
7* Pre New Year's Bowl Game of the Year on BYU -3 The Key: I really like BYU laying a small number tonight because of how dominant it has been on defense. The Cougars rank 3rd in the country in total defense (266.3 ypg allowed) and 5th in scoring defense (14.7 ppg allowed). BYU is on a 7-0 ATS run in neutral field or road games after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 4 straight games. It is 8-0 ATS after having won 3 out of its last 4 games over the last 3 seasons. It is also 8-0 ATS in road or neutral site games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or higher over the last 3 seasons. Lastly, the Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 vs. the MWC. BYU has won 5 straight over SDSU with each of those wins coming by at least 3 points. Lay the number.
12-01-12	Nebraska v. Wisconsin +3	Top	31-70	Win	100	53 h 35 m	Show
7* NCAAF Game of the Week on Wisconsin +3 The Key: Wisconsin blew a 17-point lead and lost by 3 at Nebraska in the regular-season meeting, but I expect the Badgers to have their revenge on a neutral field. The Huskers have struggled when playing away from home. They are 1-4 ATS outside Lincoln this season. It is important to note that Wisconsin played Nebraska tough in the first meeting despite rushing for only 56 yards. You can bet the Badgers won't held down like that again. They average 212.7 rushing yards per game and the Huskers have given up an average of 248.2 rushing yards per game in their five contests outside Lincoln. Nebraska is just 10-22 ATS in its last 32 game played away from home versus good rushing teams that average 200 yards or more per game on the ground. The Huskers have lost these games by an average score of 31.0 to 29.2. Take the points.
11-24-12	Vanderbilt v. Wake Forest +11.5	Top	55-21	Loss	-110	25 h 37 m	Show
7* NCAAF Game of the Week on Wake Forest +11.5 The Key: Off back-to-back ugly losses at NC State and Notre Dame, Wake will show up at home on senior day with a chance to become bowl eligible. The Demon Deacons have been awesome in bounce back spots. They are an impressive 9-2 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons and have won by an average score of 23.5 to 23.3 in these games. Vandy has won 5 in a row with a 41-18 victory over Tennessee in its last game and is being overvalued because of it. The Commodores are just 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games following a win by 17 or more points and 6-18 ATS in their last 24 following a home win by 17 points or more. They have lost by an average score of 27.4 to 13.0 in the latter situation. Vandy came to Wake as a one-point dog last season and buried the Demon Deacs 41-7. You can bet they haven't forgotten about that beatdown. Prior to that loss, Wake had won 3 in a row in the series by double digits. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and I believe we have a live dog here.
11-23-12	Washington v. Washington State +14	Top	28-31	Win	100	9 h 18 m	Show
7* NCAAF HEAVY HITTER on Washington State +14 The Key: The Cougars have lost 8 in a row and are being undervalued at home because of it. They are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games as a double-digit dog, and I expect them to keep this one much closer than the oddsmakers think. Washington State has been very competitive at home this season where it hasn't lost by more than 14 points. It played UCLA to a 12-point game Nov. 10 in its last home game so it is more than capable of keeping this one within the number. The Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record,3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. The Cougars are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. The Huskies are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win of more than 20 points and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games. The Underdog is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 meetings. Take the points.
11-17-12	Rutgers v. Cincinnati -6.5	Top	10-3	Loss	-105	85 h 23 m	Show
7* Big East Game of the Year on Cincinnati -6.5 The Key: The books are looking to trap bettors here by listing Cincinnati as more than a TD favorite against a ranked team that has a better record. I'm not falling for it. Rutgers is offensively challenged, and its defense is not good enough to hold down Cincy's explosive offensive attack. The Bearcats are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 conference games. Cincy is also 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and has won these by an average of 11.5 points. Last season's 20-3 loss at Rutgers can't be setting well as the Bearcats had won the 5 previous meetings by an average of 18.0 points. Lay the number as Cincy has its revenge.
11-14-12	Ohio +6.5 v. Ball State	Top	27-52	Loss	-110	13 h 52 m	Show
7* MAC Game of the Year on Ohio +6.5 The Key: Ohio will be lacking no motivation tonight after laying an egg last week. Plus, you better believe it hasn't forgotten about last season's 3-point loss to Ball State. Ohio hasn't lost to Ball State by more than three points in the last six meetings. It hasn't lost by more than 7 points in the last nine meetings. Ball State is primed for a letdown following last week's upset win over Toledo. And, it's not deserving of this much respect considering how poor it is on the defensive side of the football. Take the points.
11-10-12	Texas A&M +14 v. Alabama	Top	29-24	Win	100	47 h 42 m	Show
7* SEC Game of the Month on Texas A&M +14 The Key: This is a huge letdown spot for Alabama following last week's come from behind win against LSU. Texas A&M only has two losses on the season, and those were narrow defeats to Florida and LSU. Alabama is the best defensive team in the country, but it has yet to see an offense as good as the one it will see here. Playing against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points after 8 or more consecutive wins, provided they have won at least 80% of their games on the season and are matched up against a team that has won 60-80% of its games on the season, has produced a 39-13 ATS mark since 1992. These teams have been favored by 15.4 points in average but have only won by 8.4 points on average. Also, the Crimson Tide are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games. Take the points.
11-09-12	Pittsburgh v. Connecticut +3.5	Top	17-24	Win	100	10 h 16 m	Show
7* Big East Game of the Week on Connecticut +3.5 The Key: This is a letdown spot for Pitt following last week's emotional loss to Notre Dame. Meanwhile, this is a bounce back spot for Connecticut, and the Huskies have been money in such spots. They are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 games following a loss. The Huskies have also been money at where they are 31-15-1 ATS in their last 47 games. Teams coached by Paul Pasqualoni are 7-0 ATS in home games when they check into a contest with losses in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. His teams have won by an average score of 40.0 to 18.3 in this situation. Look for this motivated UConn team to pull off the upset.
11-03-12	Oregon v. USC +8	Top	62-51	Loss	-110	99 h 46 m	Show
7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on USC +8 The Key: Oregon is a good football team but it is yet to face anyone as good as USC, who won last season's meeting 38-35 on the road. The Trojans got caught looking ahead last week as they blew a 28-13 lead to Arizona, but that assures us they'll be even more focused here. The Trojans are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games following a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. USC's 3 home wins this season have come by 39, 18 and 44 points. Also, USC has either won or played the Ducks to within 7 points or fewer in 12 of the past 16 meetings. Lastly, plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that have gained 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games and are up against an opponent that outrushed its last opponent by 150 or more yards are 31-7 ATS the last 10 seasons. This system tightens up to 16-4 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the points.
11-02-12	Washington v. California -3.5	Top	21-13	Loss	-115	77 h 6 m	Show
7* NCAAF HEAVY HITTER on Cal -3.5 The Key: Washington can't be trusted on the road where it is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 and has lost each of this season's 3 road contests by an average of 34.7 points. The Huskies have also dropped 3 of their last 4 at Cal with the 3 defeats coming by nearly 32 points on average. Wash checks in off an upset win against Oregon State but is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following a SU win and 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following a cover. Bet Cal and lay the points.
10-27-12	Texas Tech +7.5 v. Kansas State	Top	24-55	Loss	-110	45 h 25 m	Show
7* Big 12 Game of the Year on Texas Tech +7.5 The Key: Texas Tech is not getting the respect it deserves here. It has either won or lost by 7 points or less in 7 straight matchups with Kansas State. The Red Raiders lost last season's matchup with the Wildcats by 7 points despite outgaining them 580-339 because of 4 turnovers. I don't expect Tech to be as generous this season as they haven't committed more than 3 turnovers in any game and have committed 2 or less in 6 of their 7 games. Plus, this Texas Tech team is far better than the one we saw last season. Last season, Tech was one of the worst defensive teams in the country. This year it's one of the best. It ranks 8th in total defense with 282 ypg allowed. The Red Raiders are more explosive offensively this season too. The Red Raiders have never lost on the road following a game in which they combined with their opponent to score 60 points or more under coach Tuberville. They are a perfect 8-0 ATS in this situation, winning these games by an average of 14.0 points. The Red Raiders are also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. The Wildcats are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games versus a team with a winning road record. Take the points.
10-26-12	Cincinnati +3.5 v. Louisville	Top	31-34	Win	100	26 h 2 m	Show
7* Big East Game of the Month on Cincinnati +3.5 The Key: The Bearcats are 33-12 ATS the last two decades versus good team that outscore their foes by at least 10 points per game on average. The Cardinals are a poor 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games under the Friday night lights and a lousy 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings, and the Bearcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at Louisville. Cincinnati has won four in a row in this series by at least 8 points and is 3-1 ATS in those games. Take the points as the Bearcats have an excellent opportunity to win this one straight up.
10-23-12	Arkansas State v. Louisiana-Lafayette -4	Top	50-27	Loss	-110	11 h 39 m	Show
7* NCAAF HEAVY HITTER on UL Lafayette -4 The Key: The Arkansas State Red Wolves are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win. They are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this series and 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings in UL Lafayette. They are also on a 0-8 ATS slide in road games versus good offensive teams that average 5.9 yards or more per game (ULL averages 6.1 ypp) and have lost these 8 games by an average of 23.4 points. The Ragin' Cajuns are on a 6-0 ATS run versus teams with a winning record. Pass defense has been ULL's biggest weakness but it is on a 6-0 ATS run versus good passing teams that complete 58% of their throws or more (Ark St. has a 62.4% completion rate). The Cajuns have won these 6 by an average of 9.1 points. ULL has won its last 7 at home in this series, and I expect its home dominance to continue. Lay the number.
10-20-12	Alabama v. Tennessee +20	Top	44-13	Loss	-103	72 h 52 m	Show
7* SEC Game of the Month on Tennessee +20 The Key: After missing out on chances for a signature win in games against Florida, and Georgia, I expect the Vols to go after this one with all they've got. Tennessee played 4th-ranked Florida to a 17-point game and actually led that one deep into the 3rd quarter. It also played 12th-ranked Georgia to a 7-point game on the road. I'm here to tell you Alabama isn't that much better than Florida and Georgia. I expect the Vols to keep this one much closer than the odds makers think. Plays on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points in conference action that return 8 or more offensive starters including the QB are 80-31 ATS the last 10 seasons. Teams fitting into this scenario have only lost by an average of 10.6 points. This system is a perfect 5-0 ATS this season. Take Tennessee and the points.
10-19-12	Connecticut v. Syracuse -4	Top	10-40	Win	100	12 h 35 m	Show
7* NCAAF HEAVY HITTER on Syracuse -4 The Key: Connecticut cannot be trusted as a road underdog as it is 0-6 ATS when catching points on the road the last 2 seasons. Syracuse has played well at home where it is 2-1 and its only loss is a 1-point setback to a Northwestern team that's 6-1. The Orange lost at Rutgers 23-15 last week despite outgaining the Scarlet Knights 418-237 as they were hurt by 4 turnovers. The Huskies were outgained 280-244 in a 19-3 loss at Rutgers Oct. 6. Syracuse's performance against Rutgers tells me it has underachieved to this point. The Orange should be able to cover this number as long as they can do a better job of taking care of the football. I'm confident they will as UConn hasn't forced more than 2 turnovers in a game all season.
10-18-12	Oregon v. Arizona State +9	Top	43-21	Loss	-115	27 h 35 m	Show
7* Pac-12 Game of the Month on Arizona State +9 The Key: Plain and simple, this is too many points to be giving a team coached by Todd Graham. His teams are an awesome 12-3 ATS all-time when valued as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. They are also 12-2 ATS lifetime as a home underdog. The Sun Devils are 5-0-1 ATS this season and a terrific 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 home games. Plus, the home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. Oregon has been rolling, but it's yet to come up against a defense like the one it will see tonight. Take the points as the Sun Devils take the Ducks down to the wire.
10-16-12	Louisiana-Lafayette -4 v. North Texas	Top	23-30	Loss	-100	12 h 40 m	Show
7* NCAAF HEAVY HITTER on UL Lafayette -4 The Key: The Ragin' Cajuns have never lost in games when the total is between 56.5 and 63 points under the direction of Coach Hudspeth. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS in this spot. Fading teams coached by McCarney is 9-0 ATS all-time if they're up against an opponent who commits 1 or less turnovers per game. Fading his teams is 8-0 ATS all-time of they're up against a team with a turnover margin of +1.5 per game or better. These trends elude to North Texas needing to force turnovers to win games, and UL Lafayette hasn't been generous with the football. Lay the number.
10-13-12	Duke v. Virginia Tech -10	Top	20-41	Win	100	66 h 37 m	Show
7* ACC Game of the Year on Virginia Tech -10 The Key: Fueled by back-to-back defeats, and back in front of the home fans for the first time in 3 weeks, expect the Hokies to roll against a Duke program they have lunched on. VA Tech is 11-0 in its last 11 against Duke, winning those by an average of 21.4 points. Also, VA Tech is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses. It has won by an average of 11.0 points in this spot. Duke is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games after 3 or more consecutive covers. It has lost by an average of 13.9 points in this spot. Plus, the Hokies are on an impressive 38-21 ATS run as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. It has won in this spot by an average of 11.2 points. Given the level of motivation here, I expect the Hokies to destroy these averages.
10-12-12	Navy v. Central Michigan -1.5	Top	31-13	Loss	-110	11 h 8 m	Show
7* NCAAF HEAVY HITTER on Central Michigan -1.5 The Key: Navy can't be trusted on the road. It managed to squeak out an overtime win at Air Force last week but had dropped 4 of its last 5 on the highway prior. Navy also can't be trusted against MAC opponents as it is just 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games against them. Central Mich has a big won over Iowa on the road this year. It also beat a Northern Illinois team last season that won 11 games. In other words, the Chipps have the talent to compete against good teams. Consistency has been an issue, but I love their chances here as they strap on their helmets in front of the home fans for the first time in over a month. The Midshipmen are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Friday games. Take the Chippewas.
10-11-12	Arizona State v. Colorado +23	Top	51-17	Loss	-110	12 h 3 m	Show
7* NCAAF HEAVY HITTER on Colorado +23 The Key: Expect the bye week to do Colorado some good as it is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games following a bye week. The Sun Devils are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games off a double digit road win. Motivated by a poor performance last time out, and further motivated by a poor showing against ASU last year, the Buffaloes will keep this one closer than the odds makers think.
10-06-12	Nebraska v. Ohio State -3	Top	38-63	Win	100	53 h 38 m	Show
7* Big Ten Game of the Year on Ohio State -3 The Key: Nebraska can't be trusted on the road where it was blown out by Wisconsin and Michigan last year and gave up over 650 yards in a 36-30 loss to UCLA this year. The Cornhuskers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games. More importantly, last week's upset win over Michigan State sets up a perfect wagering situation. Teams headed up by Urban Meyer are 9-0 ATS when checking into a matchup following an upset victory. His teams have won these games by an average of 21.0 points. In other words, Meyer's teams haven't suffered letdowns. Take Ohio State and lay the points.
10-05-12	Pittsburgh v. Syracuse -1	Top	13-14	Push	0	10 h 20 m	Show
7* NCAAF HEAVY HITTER on Syracuse -1 The Key: Pitt can't be trusted on the road. It was blown out in its only previous road game this season, and it is even 4-13 ATS in its last 17 road games when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 25% or less. The Panthers are also 6-19 ATS in their last 25 road games following a 2-game home stand. The Orange are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week, and the favorite is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Take Syracuse.
10-04-12	East Carolina v. Central Florida -11.5	Top	20-40	Win	100	11 h 35 m	Show
7* C-USA Game of the Month on Central Florida -11.5 The Key: The Knights have a pair of losses to Ohio State and Missouri but they have taken care of business against their two lesser opponents, crushing Akron 56-14 and Florida International 33-20. Off a loss UCF will be very focused here, and it will be further fueled by last season's upset loss at East Carolina. The Knights are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss while the Pirates are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win. Also, the Knights are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games following an ATS loss while the Pirates are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. The Knights are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 conference games, and the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The last time ECU visited, UCF handed them a 14-point defeat. I'm expecting an even bigger win from the Knights tonight.
09-29-12	South Carolina v. Kentucky +20.5	Top	38-17	Loss	-110	73 h 7 m	Show
7* NCAAF Game of the Week on Kentucky +20.5 The Key: Off a satisfying win over Missouri and with a big showdown versus Georgia on deck, I expect the Gamecocks to get caught looking past Kentucky here. South Carolina is notorious for its letdowns. It is 3-11 ATS following a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival under coach Spurrier. It is 0-6 ATS off any home win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons and has only won by an average of 2.5 points in these games. Kentucky was embarrassed at S. Carolina last season, but before that 5 straight matchups had been decided by 15 points or less. Take the point as the Wildcats catch SC napping and keep this one close.
09-28-12	Hawaii v. BYU -26.5	Top	0-47	Win	100	10 h 23 m	Show
7* NCAAF HEAVY HITTER on BYU -26.5 The Key: BYU has the overwhelming advantage tonight because of its defense, specifically its run defense, which ranks 10th in the nation with 68.8 yards allowed per game. Home favorites that have held their opponents to 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games, as long as they are matched up against an opponent that was outrushed by 125 or more yards in its last game, are 48-20 ATS the last 10 seasons. This system is 17-6 ATS the last 5 seasons and ties into a golden trend in support of the Cougars. BYU is a perfect 6-0 ATS after holding its foes to 125 rushing yards or fewer in 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Unlike in the past, Hawaii needs its running game this year. It won't be able to run on BYU. Lay the points as the Cougars roll at home tonight.
09-27-12	Stanford v. Washington +7	Top	13-17	Win	100	12 h 52 m	Show
7* Pac-12 HEAVY HITTER on Washington +7 The Key: Stanford upset USC in its last game, but now it goes on the road for the first time this season to take on a Washington team that will be out for some serious revenge as it looks to end a 4-game skid in the series. The Cardinals are not as good as they have been the last couple years, and I believe that will be made evident on the road tonight. Both teams are coming off a bye, and the extra time should especially benefit a Washington team that is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games following a bye week. The Huskies are also 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games. History is on our side as well as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that average 280-330 yards per game and are matched up against a foe that allows 280-330 yards per game are 77-39 ATS the last 10 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have been underdogs of 6.6 points on average but have only lost by 3.2 points on average. This system is 14-4 ATS the last 3 seasons. Take the points.
09-22-12	Southern Miss +5 v. Western Kentucky	Top	17-42	Loss	-110	73 h 52 m	Show
7* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Year on Southern Miss +5 The Key: This is a letdown spot for Western Kentucky following last week's big win at Kentucky. This is a bounce back spot, on the other hand, for Southern Miss following last week's 10-point upset loss to East Carolina. The Golden Eagles have responded well to sizable defeats as they are on an impressive 11-2 ATS run following a double-digit loss to a conference foe. They have won by an average of 12.3 points in this spot. Take the points for insurance, but I really like So. Miss to win this one outright.
09-21-12	Baylor -7 v. Louisiana-Monroe	Top	47-42	Loss	-110	11 h 2 m	Show
7* NCAAF HEAVY HITTER on Baylor -7 The Key: Baylor is 15-6 ATS when laying points under coach Briles. It has won by an average score of 44.0 to 24.6 in this situation. Also, Briles' teams are 13-4 ATS all-time as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. They have won by an average score of 36.6 to 22.1 in this situation. Baylor will be very focused here after a poor first half in its last game, and it won't be taking Lousiana-Monroe lightly because of what it has done against a pair of SEC teams. Baylor is the more talented team on both sides of the football, and I like it to win this one by double digits.
09-20-12	BYU +7.5 v. Boise State	Top	6-7	Win	100	12 h 47 m	Show
7* NCAAF HEAVY HITTER on BYU +7.5 The Key: The Broncos are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games, and they are 0-6 ATS in their 6 home games after a victory of 17 or more points. The Cougars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall and 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. They are an incredible 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in their previous game. The Cougars are also 7-2 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. the MWC.
09-19-12	Kent State v. Buffalo -3.5	Top	23-7	Loss	-105	10 h 2 m	Show
7* NCAAF HEAVY HITTER on Buffalo -3.5 The Key: Kent State's poor performance at Kentucky stacks the odds against it tonight as it is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following a SU loss, 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games following an ATS loss and 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games after being held to less than 20 points in its previous game. The Golden Flashes are also 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games in September. Kent State has lost 4 of its last 5 against Buffalo and is 1-3-1 ATS in those contests. Bet Buffalo.
09-15-12	Florida v. Tennessee -3	Top	37-20	Loss	-108	49 h 4 m	Show
7* SEC Game of the Year on Tennessee -3 The Key: I'm confident Tennessee is the better team in this matchup. With the home crowd behind them and fueled by 7 straight losses to Florida, expect the Vols to roll. The Gators are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record. They are even 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games in the underdog role, losing these by an average of 18.6 points. Lastly, Florida has lost its last 4 SEC games away from home with each of those coming by at least 4 points. Take Tennessee.
09-14-12	Washington State v. UNLV +8.5	Top	35-27	Win	100	11 h 4 m	Show
7* NCAAF HEAVY HITTER on UNLV +8.5 The Key: The fact the rebels are only catching 8.5 points against a team that defeated them by 52 last season tells us all we need to know. Consider that home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in a non-conference matchup, if they had a terrible defense last season that allowed 425 or more total yards/game, are 41-14 ATS since 1992. These teams have only lost by an average of 0.3 points in this situation. The Rebels are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games, and I expect them to give the Cougars a game tonight.
09-13-12	Rutgers v. South Florida -7.5	Top	23-13	Loss	-100	10 h 13 m	Show
7* NCAAF HEAVY HITTER (ESPN) on South Florida -7.5 The Key: The Bulls are clearly the more talented team, they are at home and they'll be looking to pay Rutgers back for last season's upset loss. The Bulls fit into a sweet system as well. Playing on favorites of 3.5-10.0 points in the 1st month of the season after finishing the previous season with 2 consecutive defeats or more are 16-5 ATS the last 10 seasons as long as the team they are playing finished the previous season with 4 wins or more in its final 5 contests. I expect this system to cash another ticket tonight.
09-08-12	Miami (Fla) +7 v. Kansas State	Top	13-52	Loss	-110	20 h 1 m	Show
7* NCAAF Game of the Week on Miami (FL) +7 The Key: Kansas State hugely overachieved last season and last year's success has translated into the Wildcats being overvalued here. Even last week's 51-9 win over Missouri State is misleading as they were tied 9-9 in the 3rd quarter and gave up over 400 yards of offense. Miami has the potential to do even more damage against K-State's suspect defense. The Wildcats were outgained by an average of 106.8 yard in Big 12 play last season. That stat alone shows how fortunate they were. The Hurricanes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. The Hurricanes are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. the Big 12.

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