7* Eastern Michigan/Old Dominion NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Eastern Michigan +6

The Key: It's safe to say that the Eastern Michigan Eagles are happy to be going bowling.  After all, they haven't been to a bowl game in 29 years.  The Eagles haven't been handed anything this year.  They've earned it with a pair of wins over conference championship participants in Ohio (MAC) and Wyoming (Mountain West).  The Eagles are led by three-time MAC Offensive Player of the Week Brogan Roback, who guided an offense that set school records for total offense (5,447), passing offense (3,549) and total points (396).  The offensive line has allowed the 12th-fewest sacks in the national and the second-fewest tackles for loss.  There is another motivational angle that favors the Eagles.  They want revenge from a 38-34 loss to Old Dominion last season, and they are far and away better than they were last season.  The Eagles are 7-0 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders this season.  The Eagles are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Monarchs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.  Take Eastern Michigan.

7* UTSA/New Mexico NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on New Mexico -7.5

The Key: The New Mexico Lobos will be playing in their hometown bowl for a second consecutive season.  After falling just short in a 37-45 loss to Arizona last year, they will be hungry to earn their first bowl win since 2007 Saturday.  That's why I'm not concerned about any lack of motivation playing in this bowl game again.  Bob Davie has done as good a coaching job as anyone in the country.  He got them to their first bowl since 2007 last year, and now the Lobos have a chance to win 9 games.  Davie has this Lobos' offense hitting on all cylinders with 37.8 points per game and a FBS-best 361 rushing yards per game.  The Lobos have a big-play offense with two running backs in Teriyon Gipson (1,209 yards, 12 TD) and Tyrone Owens (1,084 yards, 7 TD) who both average over 8.0 yards per carr on the season.  UTSA's offense is only averaging 376 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play this season.  They don't have the firepower to keep up with the Lobos in this one.  New Mexico is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games off an upset win over a conference opponent as a home dog.  The Lobos come in confident after throttling Wyoming 56-35 as 3-point dogs in their season finale.  They put up 690 total yards on the Cowboys, who went on to play in the MWC Championship Game.  The Roadrunners are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.  Take New Mexico.

7* Okie State/Oklahoma Big 12 *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma State +11

The Key: This is a much more evenly-matched game than this spread would indicate, and thus I find value on the double-digit underdog in this rivalry game with the Big 12 title at stake.  Oklahoma State is outscoring teams by 13.2 PPG this season and Oklahoma by 14.8 PPG.  The Sooners can't be trusted to cover this big number because they have their worst defense in years.  They allow 30.5 points, 443 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play this season.  Two of the three meetings between these teams between 2012 and 2014 went to overtime, and the other was decided by 9 points.  But the Cowboys will be out for revenge from their 58-23 loss to the Sooners last year.  That was closer than the score as the Sooners only outgained the Cowboys by 67 yards.  The Cowboys have actually played their best on the road this season as they won 44-20 at Kansas, 43-37 at Kansas State and 31-6 at TCU.  They were dogs in those latter two games.  The Cowboys are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after rushing for more than 200 yards in their previous game.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Take Oklahoma State.

7* Michigan/Ohio State Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Ohio State -5

The Key: This is a very cheap price for the Ohio State Buckeyes here.  They have the home-field edge and a big edge at quarterback with J.T. Barrett over John O'Korn.  The Buckeyes are beating teams by 42 points per game at home this season.  We saw Michigan lose on the road at Iowa and struggle beating Michigan State away from home.  We also saw O'Korn struggle against Indiana at home last week.  Ohio State has won 11 of its last 12 meetings with Michigan and there hasn't been an upset in this series in 11 years.  Urban Meyer is 8-0 ATS when favored by less than 10 points or an underdog in his last 8 games as a head coach.  Take Ohio State.

7* NCAAF Friday *HEAVY HITTER* on Northern Illinois -5

The Key: The Northern Illinois Huskies are playing very well here down the stretch at 4-3 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  They have found their QB of the future in Daniel Santacaterina, who led them back from 21-0 down to beat Eastern Illinois last week.  He rushed for 91 yards in the second half alone after taking over for their injured starting QB.  Kent State is down to its 3rd-string QB now after losing 7-42 at Bowling Green last week.  That was an alarming loss and it's hard to tell what kind of effort you are going to get from the Golden Flashes this week.  The Huskies are 8-0 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings winning seven of those by at least 7 points.  The Huskies are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team with a losing home record.  Take Northern Illinois.

7* CMU/EMU MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Eastern Michigan +1.5

The Key: Eastern Michigan is looking to get to its first bowl game since 1987.  The Eagles are 6-5 this season, but they may need another victory to secure their spot in the postseason.  And after blowing a 21-0 lead and losing to Northern Illinois last week, they will come back very hungry on Senior Night here against Central Michigan.  The Chippewas are also 6-5, but with their win over Oklahoma State earlier this season, they're probably going to a bowl either way.  They had lost 3 straight before winning 27-20 over Ohio last week, but Ohio pretty much gave that game away by committing four turnovers.  CMU was held to just 286 total yards in that game and outgained by 71 yards.  EMU is 6-0 ATS off one or more consecutive unders this season.  The Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.  The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Eastern Michigan.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Month on Stanford -10.5

The Key: The Stanford Cardinal have won three straight games by double-digits, including a 24-point win at Arizona and a 25-point win at Oregon.  They should keep this streak going against the Cal Bears, who have lost three straight games by at least 21 points each while getting outscored by an average of 31.7 points per game.  Their defense has given up 662 yards per game during this stretch.  Stanford will have its way rushing the football in this game as the Golden Bears allow 283 yards per game on the ground, and frankly I don't know how they are going to ever stop Stanford from scoring.  The Cardinal have owned this series with 6 straight victories over Cal and 5 of those coming by 13 points or more.  The Cardinal are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when favored by 10.5 to 21 points.  Take Stanford.

7* UNLV/Boise NCAAF Friday Night Lights on UNLV +28.5

The Key: The UNLV Rebels just beat Wyoming in Triple Overtime last Saturday.  That gives these teams a common opponent at Boise State actually lost to Wyoming 30-28.  And UNLV gained 653 yards against Wyoming and outgained them by 168 yards.  Boise State was actually outgained by 2 yards by Wyoming in that loss.  UNLV averages 253 rushing yards per game this season and will find success on the ground against Boise State.  After all, the Broncos have allowed 215 or more rushing yards in 3 straight games to Wyoming, San Jose State and Hawaii.  The Broncos haven't won by more than 14 points at home this season, and they are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games at home dating back to last season.  Take UNLV.

7* Ohio/CMU MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Central Michigan PK

The Key: The Central Michigan Chippewas need a win to get bowl eligible as they sit at 5-5 on the season.  They will be motivated here at home.  I question the motivation of the Ohio Bobcats, who can lose tonight and still win the MAC East with a home win over Akron next week.  The Bobcats have played one of the easiest schedules in the country up to this point and are extremely overrated.  Central Michigan went on the road and beat Oklahoma State.  Ohio is coming off 3 straight ATS covers, while CMU is coming off 3 straight ATS losses.  That has put the value squarely on the home team in this contest tonight.  Take Central Michigan.

7* Mountain West Game of the Year on Wyoming -7.5

The Key: Wyoming is 5-0 in conference play with a win over Boise State to boot.  With wins in 2 of their final 3 games, the Cowboys will be going to the conference championship game.  But they still have tough games coming up at home against San Diego State and on the road at New Mexico.  They really need to win this game against UNLV if they want to reach their goals.  I look for them to continue playing well against the Rebels here.  UNLV has lost 3 of its last 4 with its only win coming against Hawaii, and I don't expect it to put up much of a fight here. That includes a 23-42 home loss to Colorado State, which is the same team Wyoming beat 38-17 on the road earlier this season.  UNLV is a one-dimensional running team that only completes 45.2% of its passes for 163 yards per game.  Wyoming has been great against the run, giving up just 139 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry.  Bets on favorites on of 3.5 to 10 points after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 25-3 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Take Wyoming.

7* BC/FSU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Boston College +20.5

The Key: The Florida State Seminoles have already suffered 3 losses this season and are merely playing for bowl positioning.  They're not concerned at all about this game against Boston College.  They were flat last week in their 24-20 win over NC State, and I don't see them putting forth a much better effort here.  Keep in mind that Boston College also beat NC State 21-14 on the road as 14-point dogs two weeks ago.  Speaking of 14, the Eagles haven't lost by more than 14 points to Florida State in any of the past 3 meetings.  The Eagles are 7-0 ATS in road games off an ATS loss over the last 3 seasons.  After failing to cover in a blowout loss to Louisville last week, the Eagles are undervalued here.  Take Boston College.

7* SEC Game of the Year on Arkansas +4

The Key: The Arkansas Razorbacks are fresh off their bye week.  They needed it after playing the likes of Alabama, Ole Miss and Auburn in consecutive weeks.  Quarterback Austin Allen is now healthy and ready to lead his troops at home against 11th-ranked Florida.  The Gators may be the most overrated team in their country because their 6-1 start has come against a very easy schedule.  They best team they've played is Tennessee, and they lost 38-28 on the road.  They also barely beat Vanderbilt 13-6 in their other true road game.  The Razorbacks are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games off a loss by 21 points or more.  The Gators are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a cover against the spread.  The wrong team is favored in this game.  Take Arkansas.

7* SJSU/Boise State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on San Jose State +30

The Key: The Boise State Broncos just had their dreams crushed of playing in the Cotton Bowl.  They lost 28-30 at Wyoming last week as 14.5-point underdogs.  I expect them to come out flat tonight against the San Jose Spartans, which is going to make it extremely difficult to cover this 30-point spread.  The Broncos have been one of the worst bets in college football, yet they still keep getting a ton of respect from oddsmakers.   They are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  They only won by 1 at home over BYU, by 5 at home over Colorado State, by 11 at home over Utah State and by 3 at home over Washington State in their four home games, where they've gone 0-4 ATS.  The Spartans come in with confidence after winning 2 of their last 3 games while not committing a single turnover in that stretch, which has made the biggest difference.  The Broncos are 0-7 ATS vs. teams who give up 8 or more yards per pass attempt over the last 3 seasons.  They are only beating these teams by 4.8 points per game.  Take San Jose State.

7* Miami/ND Non-Conference Game of the Month on Notre Dame +1.5

The Key: This is the start of a new season for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.  They have started 2-5 this year and will have to get four wins in their last five games to make a bowl.  There's no question this team is shooting for that target, and the next four games are all winnable against Miami, Navy, Army and Virginia Tech.  Now they've had a bye week to catch their breath and should play one of their best games of the season this week.  It's worth noting that all five of Notre Dame's losses have come by 8 points or less, so they are better than their record.  Maimi has been overmatched in three straight losses to FSU, UNC and VA Tech.  They have been outgained in 4 straight games, while Notre Dame has actually outgained 4 of 7 opponents this season.  The Hurricanes are 0-6 ATS vs. teams who pass for 250 or more yards per game over the last 2 seasons.  They are losing by 17.2 points per game on average.  Take Notre Dame.

7* Big 12 Game of the Year on TCU +6.5

The Key: The TCU Horned Frogs are fresh off their bye after an uninspiring 24-23 win at Kansas two weeks ago.  Gary Patterson has gotten the attention of his players, and I look for the Horned Frogs to put forth their best effort of the season Saturday.  Patterson is the king of using the bye week to his advantage.  His teams are 12-1 SU & 13-0 ATS in their last 13 off regular season bye weeks.  It's time to sell high on the West Virginia Mountaineers, who are 5-0 but struggled to put away both BYU and Kansas State, beating those two teams by a combined 4 points.  TCU will be the best opponent that WVU has faced this season.  The Mountaineers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take TCU.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on San Jose State +23

The Key: The San Jose State Spartans have played much better in Mountain West play.  They lost by a touchdown to New Mexico, beat Nevada and lost to Hawaii as a favorite.  San Diego State lost at South Alabama by 18 a few weeks ago, ruining their perfect season.  They came back with flat efforts in a 26-7 win over UNLV and a 17-3 win over Fresno State the past two weeks.  The Aztecs have an elite defense, but their offense simply isn't good enough to lay big numbers like this 23-point spread.  They have no passing game, and Donnel Pumphrey may be wearing down.  He has 167 carries already, including 69 in the past two games.  San Diego State is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games after gaining 275 or more rushing yards in its previous game.  Take San Jose State.

7* NCAAF Situational Game of the Year on Virginia +4

The Key: The Virginia Cavaliers have gone 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.  Yet, they still get no love from oddsmakers here.  They are coming off their two best games of the season with a 49-35 home win over Central Michigan as 5-point dogs and a 34-20 road win at Duke as 3-point dogs.  They had a bye last week, so they'll be fresh and ready to go at home against Pitt this week.  Pitt is dead tired right now after playing 6 straight weeks to open the season, and 4 of its last 5 games were decided by 7 points or less.  I believe the Panthers will run out of gas this week, especially after having to face Georgia Tech's triple-option last week.  The home team is 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  The Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 conference games and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a bye week.  Take Virginia.

7* Miss State/BYU ESPN Friday Night Lights on UNDER 56.5

The Key: Mississippi State is 54-36 UNDER in all games with Dan Mullen as head coach.  The Bulldogs are 4-1 UNDER in their 5 games this season as well.  Four of those five finished with 52 or less points.  BYU is 4-2 UNDER in its 6 games this season.  Four of those finished with 45 or fewer combined points.  Given that evidence, it appears the oddsmakers have inflated this total.  Both teams are run-first offenses, and both defenses are excellent at stopping the run, so the matchup favors the UNDER as well.  The UNDER is 30-8 in BYU's last 38 games vs. a team that averages 4.75 or more yards per carry.  Take the UNDER.

7* Appalachian State/LA-Lafayette ESPN 2 *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 48.5

The Key: Lafayette is coming off back-to-back overtime games that have inflated this total.  They were tied with Tulane 16-16 at the end of regulation two weeks ago for 32 combined points, then proceeded to score 48 points in OT.  They were tied with New Mexico State 24-24 at the end of regulation last week for 48 combined points, but added 20 more points in OT.  Last year, Appalachian State beat LA Lafayette 28-7 for 35 combined points, and I expect to see a similar result here.  Three of Appalachian State's five games this season finished with 38 or fewer combined points, including last week's 17-3 win over Georgia State.  Both offenses are subpar, and both defenses are better than average, especially Appalachian State.  Both teams also prefer to keep the ball on the ground as the Mountaineers rush 47 times per game while the Rajin' Cajuns rush 46 times per game.  That will keep the clock moving.  Both defenses are good against the run as App State allows 134 yards per game while Lafayette gives up only 116 yards per game.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Mountaineers last 4 games following a bye week.  Both teams have had extra time to prepare, which also favors the UNDER.  Take the UNDER.

7* American Athletic GAME OF THE YEAR on East Carolina +16

The Key: The East Carolina Pirates have been impressive this season.  The beat NC State 33-30 at home, lost at South Carolina 15-20 while outgaining the Gamecocks by 207 yards, lost 17-54 at VA Tech and was only outgained by 19 yards, and lost to UCF 29-47 despite outgaining the Knights by 148 yards.  Their stats have been tremendous considering the competition faced.  They are averaging 523 yards on offense and giving up 393 on defense, outgaining teams by 130 yards per game.  Now they catch South Florida in a letdown spot off a big road win at Cincinnati last week.  The Bulls are simply getting to much respect from oddsmakers here.  The Pirates are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home.  The Bulls are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The road team has won both meetings the last 2 years and 4 of the last 6 outright despite being underdogs for the majority of the meetings.  Take East Carolina.

7* Clemson/BC ESPN Friday Night Lights on Boston College +17

The Key: Boston College has the best defense in the country this season, giving up just 202 yards per game and 3.6 yards per play.  That stop unit will keep the Eagles competitive here against Clemson, which is in a massive letdown spot after the win over Louisville on Saturday.  I like Eagles QB Patrick Towles, who has thrown for 806 yards with a 6-to-3 TD/INT ratio.  I think he can make enough plays to keep the Eagles within striking distance.  Boston College is 3-0 ATS in the last 3 meetings and hasn't lost by more than 17 to Clemson in any of the last 4 meetings.  The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Take Boston College.

7* Sun Belt Total of the Week on Georgia Southern/Arkansas State OVER 54

The Key: Georgia Southern boasts an offense that puts up 33.0 points and 458 yards per game on the season.  The Eagles are averaging 318 rushing yards per game, making this a great matchup for them.  Arkansas State is giving up 36.0 points per game and 239 rushing yards per contest.  This Arkansas State offense started slow, but it has been much better the past two games with Justice Hansen at quarterback.  He threw for 287 yards against Utah State and 424 against Central Arkansas.  He was actually one of the top-rated recruits coming out of high school when he signed with Oklahoma before transferring to junior college last year and then here.  Arkansas State is 8-0 OVER vs. teams who average 4.75 or more rushing yards per attempts over the last 3 seasons.  The Red Wolves are 8-0 OVER against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.  The OVER is 22-4 in Red Wolves last 26 conference games.  Take the OVER.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Washington State +2.5

The Key: The Washington Cougars won nine games last year and contended for a Pac-12 title.  They brought back a ton of talent from that team, including QB Luke Faulk and 8 starters on offense.  So the 1-2 start is shocking, but it also has the Cougars flying under the radar.  They lost their two games by a combined 6 points, including a 3-point loss at Boise State in a game they arguably outplayed the Broncos.  They gained 520 yards against Boise State and held them to 420 yards.  Oregon is 2-2 and has one of its worst teams in years, yet it is a favorite here.  The Ducks have given up at least 26 points in every game and will have their hands full with Faulk.  Oregon does have another good offense that loves to run the ball, but Washington State counters that with a defense that is giving up only 103 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.  WSU is coming off a bye week, and that's a nice advantage here to prepare for the Ducks, who they are 1-1 against the last two years in games that were both decided by a TD.  Betting against teams who outscore opponents by 7 or more points per game who have allowed 31 points or more in 2 straight games are 27-3 ATS over the last 5 years.  We'll bet against the Ducks here, who fit that criteria.  Take Washington State.

7* Stanford/Washington ESPN Friday Night Lights on Washington -3

The Key: The Washington Huskies are ready to change the landscape of the Pac-12, which has gone through Stanford over the past few years.  And with one of the best home-field advantages in the country inside Husky Stadium for this Top 10 showdown, you can bet they are going to be feeding off of the energy.  But the bottom line is that the Huskies are actually the more talented team in this matchup.  They have the better defense, and certainly the more explosive offense as Stanford has been held back by its shaky QB play this season.  The Cardinal were lucky to beat UCLA last week on the road, but they won't be so fortunate this time around.  Take Washington.

7* Big 12 Game of the Month on Baylor -7.5

The Key: Everyone is down on Baylor because they haven't played anyone.  But they've taken care of business like they're supposed to with all three of their wins coming by 27 points or more.  The fact that they're 0-3 ATS gives us some line value here.  Last year, Baylor beat Oklahoma State 45-35 on the road while racking up 700 yards of total offense and outgaining the Cowboys by 259 yards.  Now they get the Cowboys at home, where they are 17-3 in their last 20 Big 12 home games.  I'm not impressed with Oklahoma State with a loss to Central Michigan and a fortunate win against Pitt, both of which came at home.  The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points.  Take Baylor.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah -2.5

The Key: The Utah Utes are 8-1 at home dating back to last season.  Their stadium, Rice-Eccles, is one of the most underrated venues in all of college football.  The Ute faithful will be out in full force tonight in Salt Lake City with the USC Trojans coming to town.  The Trojans couldn't have looked worse to this point, and now they are starting a freshman QB in Sam Darnold.  Darnold will be up against a Utah team that had 10 sacks last week and boasts one of the best defenses in the nation.  Look for the Utes to play a clean game here offensively, while the Trojans and Darnold make mistakes that will be the difference in this game.  The Trojans are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games.  Take Utah.

7* Alabama/Ole Miss SEC *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -11

The Key: Alabama wants revenge from two straight losses to Ole Miss the past 2 seasons.  The Crimson Tide have been dominant in beating USC 52-6 and Western Kentucky 38-10, but they really want this game.  Ole Miss has been shaky with an 11-point loss to Florida State and only a 38-13 win over Wofford in which they allowed over 200 rushing yards.  Alabama gave away the game to Ole Miss last year by committing 5 turnovers.  Look for a more disciplined performance here.  Alabama is 4-0 in true road games against ranked teams since that loss to Ole Miss in 2014.  It has won these games by an average of 22 points per game.  Expect another blowout here.  Take Alabama.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah State -9

The Key: Utah State has one of the most underrated home-field advantages in the country.  The Aggies have gone 24-3 in their last 27 home games.  They are also 11-4 under Matt Wells coming off a loss.  That's key because they played USC and lost 7-45 last week on the road in a game that was closer than the final.  The Aggies were only outgained by 169 yards in that game.  Compare that to Arkansas State, which was outgained by 290 yards in a 10-31 home loss to Toledo and by 380 yards in a 14-51 road loss at Auburn, and it's easy to see Utah State is the better team.  The Aggies should roll here by double-digits.  Bets on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent that closed out last season with 4 or more wins in last 5 games are 38-12 ATS since 1992.  Take Utah State.

7* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Week on SMU +32.5

The Key: SMU is a team on the rise in the second year under Chad Morris.  They put up 27.8 points per game last year after only averaging 11.1 in 2014.  Morris has a great offensive mind and the Mustangs will have the firepower to stay within 32 points of Baylor today.  Just last year the Mustangs only trailed the Bears 21-28 at half before getting blown out in the second half.  The Mustangs gained 572 yards in a 34-21 win at North Texas last week, outgaining the Mean Green by 178 yards.  Bets on dogs of 31.5 or more points after outgaining their last opponent by 175 yards or more are 26-6 ATS since 1992.  Take SMU.

7* Louisville/Syracuse ESPN 2 Friday Night Lights on Syracuse +15

The Key: I like the direction Dino Babers has the Syracuse Orange headed.  In his first game they beat Colgate 33-7 at home and got their offense going with 554 yards.  Babers inherited 16 returning starters and more talent than most coaches could expect in their 1st year with a new team.  The Carrier Dome is no joke.  Syracuse is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 home games.  The Orange went 3-3 at home last year with a 10-point loss to LSU as 24-point dogs, a 3-point loss to Pitt as 9-point dogs, and a 10-point loss to Clemson as 30-point dogs.  If they could hang with those 3 teams at home, they certainly can hang with Louisville.  Take Syracuse.

7* Ole Miss/FSU ESPN Monday *HEAVY HITTER* on Florida State -6

The Key: Florida State has 17 starters back this season and is a legit national title contender.  Ole Miss only has 10 starters back this year and is primed for a down year after winning 10 games last year with Hugh Freeze's best team yet.  But Freeze has lost a lot of talent to the NFL and this is probably a rebuilding year.  Look for Florida State to roll in their opener, especially with home-field advantage with this game being played in their home state of Florida.  Take Florida State.

7* NCAAF Game of the Week on Texas A&M -3

The Key: Kevin Sumlin has a loaded roster in 2016 with 13 starters back and the additions of Oklahoma transfers in QB Trevor Knight and RB Keith Ford.  The defense is one of the best in the SEC with 7 of the top 8 tacklers back from a unit that gave up 22.0 points per game last year.  The offense can only be improved with better QB play from Knight and his set of receivers that are as talented as anyone in the country.  UCLA has all kinds of questions surrounding the offense around QB Josh Rosen with only 4 starters back.  The Aggies have gone 11-4 ATS in their last 15 September games and are 26-2 in their last 28 home openers.  Take Texas A&M.

7* Kansas State/Stanford NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Stanford -12

The Key: The Stanford Cardinal are on another level than the Kansas State Wildcats.  The Cardinal are among the favorites to win the Pac-12 and to make the four-team playoff.  It's easy to see why considering they have Christian McCaffrey back and are dominant up front along the offensive and defensive lines.  I think that dominance up front will be the key in them making easy work of the Wildcats, who went just 7-6 last season and barely made a bowl game.  Kansas State lost to the two best teams it played last year badly with a 55-0 loss to Oklahoma and a 45-23 loss to Arkansas.  Stanford beat Iowa by 29 in the Rose Bowl, and a blowout can be expected here.  The Cardinal are 8-0 ATS as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 range over the last 3 years.  Take Stanford.

7* South Carolina/Vanderbilt SEC *HEAVY HITTER* on Vanderbilt -4

The Key: Vanderbilt is in much better shape entering 2016 than South Carolina.  The Commodores have a 3rd-year head coach in Derek Mason, who brings back 15 starters this year.  He has 7 starters back on a defense that only gave up 21.0 points per game last year.  South Carolina is a rebuilding team under 1st-year head coach Will Muschamp.  The Gamecocks have the least amount of experience returning in the SEC and only 9 starters back.  This is a team that went 3-9 overall and 0-5 on the road last year.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Vanderbilt.

7* Cal/Hawaii NCAAF *TOTAL* Annihilator on OVER 64

The Key: Both Cal and Hawaii are going to be awful defensively this season.  Cal only brings back 4 starters on defense and loses each of its top 6 tacklers from last year.  Hawai'i gave up 35.6 points per game last season and has just 5 starters back on D while losing 7 of its top 9 tacklers.  But the Warriors should be better offensively with Nick Rolovich as their head coach.  He was the offensive coordinator at Nevada the past 4 seasons.  He has a 9 returning starters to work with on offense.  I know Cal loses Jared Goff, but they replace him with a good one in Texas Tech transfer Davis Webb, who ran the same system with the Red Raiders that Sonny Dykes runs.  Look for these 2 teams to put on a show in Australia offensively and to easily top this 64-point total.  Cal is 7-0 OVER in its last 7 road games vs. Mountain West opponents.  Take the OVER.

7* Alabama/Clemson NCAAF Championship *HEAVY HITTER* on Clemson +7

The Key: The Clemson Tigers are the No. 1 ranked team in the country and have been for most of the season.  Yet they are underdogs in both of their playoff games.  They made a statement with their 37-17 blowout of Oklahoma, and now they'll make another statement now that they've been listed as 7-point dogs to the Crimson Tide.  These players are fully aware that they are underdogs and used that as motivation against Oklahoma, and they'll do so again here.  Clemson is outgaining teams by 209.7 yards per game this season, which is the top mark in the country, and shows that it is the best team as well.  Alabama is outgaining teams by 167.1 yards per game, which is impressive, but still a far cry from Clemson.  Deshaun Watson is going to be the difference as he has rushed for 100-plus yards in three straight games coming in.  The Crimson Tide have not done well against dual-threat quarterbacks in the past, and they'll struggle to contain Watson here.  The Tigers have won each of their last four bowl games outright as underdogs, and they're 6-0 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.  Take Clemson.

7* Penn State/Georgia TaxSlayer Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Penn State +6.5

The Key: James Franklin is a proven winner in bowl games.  He has gone 3-0 straight up in bowl games dating back to his time at Vanderbilt.  He will certainly have his players ready to go after the Nittany Lions lost their final three games to close out the regular season.  I believe that finish has them undervalued heading into this TaxSlayer Bowl against Georgia.  The Bulldogs won each of their last 4 games to close out the season, which has them overvalued.  But they only beat Auburn by 7, Georgia Southern in overtime, and Georgia Tech by 6.  This Penn State team can play with Georgia in its current state.  The Bulldogs have a new head coach, a new offensive coordinator and a new defensive coordinator for this bowl game.  They will be at a severe coaching disadvantage as a result, and the Nittany Lions will simply want this game more.  Dogs of 3.5 to 10 points who are 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games who win 51% to 60% of their games on the season are 37-13 ATS over the last 10 years.  Take Penn State.

7* Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa +6

The Key: This is like a normal Big Ten game for the Hawkeyes.  The Stanford Cardinal play a physical brand of football, and the Hawkeyes match up well with physical teams that like to run the ball.  Kirk Ferentz 33-11 ATS versus teams who average at least 200 rushing yards per game in his career at Iowa.  The Hawkeyes defend the run very well this year as they give up 115 yards per game and 3.4 per carry.  The Hawkeyes also like to the run the ball themselves as they average 192 yards per game on the ground.  I think they'll find some holes against this Stanford defense that gives up 4.6 yards per carry.  Plus, starting RB Jordan Canzeri is healthy for this game after getting hurt in the loss to Michigan State, which is an added bonus.  Take Iowa.

7* Oklahoma/Clemson Orange Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma -3.5

The Key: The Oklahoma Sooners went 7-0 over their final seven games with six of those wins coming by double-digits.  The only exception was a 1-point win over TCU, but they were leading that game by 17 entering the fourth quarter.  They beat Oklahoma State by 35 on the road in their finale and are playing much better than Clemson coming in.  The Tigers have gone 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall with narrow wins over UNC, South Carolina, Syracuse and Florida State all by 10 points or less.  The Tigers got some bad news when deep threat Deon Cain was suspended for this game this week and sent home.  Cain is second on the team in receiving with 582 yards, five touchdowns and 17.1 yards per receptions.  That is a big loss.  The Sooners are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games off a win by 21 points or more.  Take Oklahoma.

7* Wisconsin/USC Holiday Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on USC -3.5

The Key: The Wisconsin Badgers went 9-3 this year, but they did not beat a team that finished with a winning record.  They played about as easy a schedule as you can have, and they lost to the three best teams they played in Alabama, Iowa and Northwestern.  They played the 70th most difficult schedule this year.  To compare, USC took on the 3rd most difficult schedule.  I just think this USC team is going to overwhelm the Badgers athletically.  The Trojans have a much more explosive offense, and their defense is good enough to limit a lackluster Wisconsin offense that only averages 3.8 yards per carry.  The Trojans lost in the Pac-12 Championship to Stanford.  That sets them up for a good situation here.  The Trojans are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss.  Take USC.

7* Baylor/UNC Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on North Carolina -2

The Key: Baylor doesn't even want to be playing in the Russell Athletic Bowl.  The Bears had higher hopes coming into the season, but after losses in their final two games to TCU and Texas, they were left out of the four-team playoff.  Injuries to this team have really hurt their cause.  They will be without the best receiver in the country in Corey Coleman and one of the best running backs in the Big 12 in Shock Linwood.  They are also playing a 3rd-string quarterback.  I just see no way they'll be able to hang with this improved UNC squad whose only losses have come by a TD or less to Clemson and South Carolina.  Baylor has committed at least 3 turnovers in three straight games, and it is 2-14 ATS in its next game after committing at least 3 turnovers in 3 straight.  Take North Carolina.

7* Georgia Southern/Bowling Green *TOTAL* Annihilator on OVER 63.5

The Key: Expect plenty of offensive fireworks in this GoDaddy Bowl between Georgia Southern and Bowling Green to push the final score over the 63.5-point total.  The Falcons have one of the best offenses in the country as they put up 43.4 points and 561.0 yards per game.  They push the tempo and don't let up for four quarters.  The Georgia Southern Eagles are an offensive juggernaut of their own as they put up 34.7 points and 417.4 yards per game this season.  The Eagles should find success on the ground against a Falcons defense that gives up 162 rushing yards per game.  The OVER is 4-0 in Falcons last 4 bowl games.  The OVER is 5-2 in Eagles last 7 non-conference games.  Take the OVER.

7* Toledo/Temple Bowl Game of the Week on Temple -2.5

The Key: Temple's Matt Rhule has taken this Owls team from 2-10 to 6-6 to 10-3 in his three seasons here.  He was a hot head coaching candidate for other schools, but he chose to stay here at Temple and signed a new 6-year contract after the season.  The Owls were snubbed from a bowl game last year, so they are certainly hungry to be playing in the postseason for the first time since 2011.  Matt Campbell did not stay at Toledo.  He haded for green pastures at Iowa State, and now the Rockets will have an interim coach.  I don't trust them any more without Campbell.  Besides, the Owls are the better team with a better defense that played a much tougher schedule than the Rockets.  Toledo did beat Iowa State in overtime and Arkansas by 4 this season, but it could not have gotten any luckier in doing so as it was outgained by nearly 400 yards combined by those two teams.  Toledo is 0-7 ATS after allowing at least 6.25 yards per play in its previous game over the last 3 years.  Take Temple.

7* Army/Navy NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Army +22

The Key: This is a ton of points for a rivalry game.  Records can pretty much be throwing out the window when these two teams get together.  We saw that last year with Army only losing 17-10 to Navy as 16.5-point underdogs.  That was the third time in the last four years that this game was decided by 7 points or less.  In fact, Army has only lost by more than 14 points to Navy once in the last 6 meetings.  Army is much better than its 2-9 record this season.  8 of its 9 losses have come by 17 points or less, including 7 by 10 points or fewer, and 6 by 7 points or less.  The Black Knights are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  The Midshipmen are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Army.

7* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on USC +4.5

The Key: It's tough to beat a team twice in the same season.  That's especially a team as talented as this USC outfit. These players are motivated to win for their new head coach in Clay Helton, who was just given a 5-year contract to stay at USC.  They love this guy and have responded well to him.  He has led them to a 5-2 record with his only losses coming against Notre Dame and Oregon, which are two of the best teams in the country.  Cody Kessler is going to move the ball up and down the field on this Stanford defense, which is without two starting cornerbacks in Alijah Holder and Ronnie Harris.  Notre Dame did the same thing against Stanford last week, and the Cardinal were fortunate to escape with a 1-point victory on a last-second field goal.  With revenge in mind, the Trojans will be the more motivated team here.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Take USC.

7* NCAAF Rivalry GAME OF THE YEAR on South Carolina +19

The Key: The betting public wants nothing to do with South Carolina right now after it lost 22-23 at home to The Citadel last week.  But the Gamecocks didn't show up for that game.  They were highly competitive in their previous four games under their interim coach, which is a lot more significant to me than The Citadel result.  They won 19-10 over Vanderbilt in their first game without Steve Spurrier.  They went on to lose 28-35 at Texas A&M as 14-point dogs, 24-27 at Tennessee as 17-point dogs, and 14-24 at home to Florida as 7.5-point dogs only after the Gators tacked on a late TD to put the game away.  If they can hang with those four teams, they can certainly keep it close against Clemson at home.  South Carolina players met amongst themselves to get some things off their chest leading up to this game.  Shawn Elliott believes he sees a determined look in his players' eyes leading into this game.  ''You can kind of look at an individual and tell if they've got it or not,'' he said. ''I think everyone got it.''  This is South Carolina's National Championship as it won't be going to a bowl game.  Clemson continues to be overvalued due to its No. 1 national ranking, going 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall.  It won by 10 of FSU (-12.5), by 10 over Syracuse (-30) and by 20 over Wake Forest (-29) as a big favorite in each game.  It is too big of a favorite once again this week.  Clemson is 0-6 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 over the last two seasons.  The Gamecocks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. ACC.  The Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.  Clemson is 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and 0-4 ATS in its last 4 trips to South Carolina.  Take South Carolina.

7* Western Michigan/Toledo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Toledo -8

The Key: Toledo is 9-1 and has a chance to cap the regular season with its best record in 15 years and play for the MAC Championship.  A win would put the Rockets in the MAC Championship for the first time since 2004.  They have this opportunity because Northern Illinois lost to Ohio on Tuesday.  Now I fully expect this re-energized group to take advantage and to pick up its sixth consecutive victory over Western Michigan in this series.  The Rockets scored on their first six possessions and held Bowling Green's high-octane offense to a season-low 368 total yards in a 44-28 road win last week.  Western Michigan gives up 185.3 rushing yards per game and has surrendered 525 rushing yards and five rushing TDs in its last two games.  Kareem Hunt has gained 406 yards with six touchdowns over his last three games and is primed for a big day.  The Rockets are 11-1-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Take Toledo.

7* Bowling Green/Ball State MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Ball State +23.5

The Key: I really question the motivation of the Bowling Green Falcons right now.  They already locked up their spot in the MAC Championship Game two weeks ago with a win over Western Michigan.  They promptly fell flat on their faces last week in a 28-44 home loss to Toledo despite being 7-point favorites.  They are in the exact same situation as last year where they clinched with two games left and lost their final two games before getting rolled by Northern Illinois in the Championship Game as well.  In their season finale last year, the Falcons lost 24-41 as 10-point home favorites over Ball State.  The Cardinals would like to end their season on a positive note with a win here, and it's also Senior Night, so they will be motivated.  I have little doubt they'll stay within three touchdowns of Bowling Green in this one.  They haven't lost by more than 14 points at home this year.  They are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following two straight games where they gave up 37 or more points.  Take Ball State.

7* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh -2

The Key: The Pittsburgh Panthers are 7-3 this season and having a great year.  Their three losses were to Notre Dame, Iowa and Pittsburgh, who have a combined two losses on the season.  Both Notre Dame and Iowa are playoff contenders.  The Panthers weren't overmatched against any of those three teams, losing by 12 points or less in all three games with a 3-point loss at Iowa, a 7-point loss to UNC, and a 12-point loss to Notre Dame.  Now it will be up against a mediocre 6-4 Louisville team that has narrow wins over Boston College (17-14), Wake Forest (20-19) and Virginia (38-31) in three of its last four games.  I look for the Panthers to take care of business at home.  They are coming off a 31-13 road win at Duke in what was one of their most complete performances of the season.  That's key because the Panthers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games off a win by 10 points or more.  Pitt is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Louisville, winning four of the last five outright.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* Cincinnati/USF NCAAF Friday Night Lights on South Florida +2

The Key: The South Florida Bulls have a realistic shot of winning the AAC East division.  They are one game back of Temple, which plays Memphis on Saturday.  The Bulls beat the Owls 44-23 at home last week in a dominant effort, outgaining them by 176 yards behind 230 rushing yards from Marlon Mack.  That followed up a 22-17 road win at East Carolina in which they outgained the Pirates by 222 yards.  South Florida has been tough to beat at home, going 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS this season, winning by an average of 21.4 PPG.  The Bulls are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  Cincinnati is 1-3 on the road this season with its only win coming by 4 points over Miami Ohio as 21-point favorites.  The Bulls are 7-0 ATS in games played on a grass field this year.  Take South Florida.

7* Toledo/Bowling Green MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Toledo +8

The Key: Bowling Green already clinched the MAC East title for the second consecutive season.  It is now already penciled into the MAC Championship Game.  Toledo is tied with Northern Illinois and Western Michigan atop the MAC West with 5-1 records each.  The Rockets still have some work to do, and motivation will clearly be on their side in this one, while we don't know what we'll get from Bowling Green.  The Falcons were in the same situation last year having clinched the MAC East early, and they proceeded to lose each of their final three games of the season, including a 17-point loss to Ball State at home as 10-point favorites.  Toledo has won five straight meetings with Bowling Green.  The Rockets are 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall, including 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games.  Take Toledo.

7* American Athletic GAME OF THE YEAR on South Florida +3

The Key: South Florida is 3-1 at home this season with its only loss to Memphis coming by a final of 24-17.  USF has won its other three games at Raymond James Stadium by a combined 134-41 score.  "I know one thing about Ray Jay, when it's rocking it's hard for any opponent to come in here and play," coach Willie Taggart told the Bulls' official website. "I've been on the other side of that coming in here and playing when that place is rocking. That's how we need it Saturday night."  A win would have the Bulls becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2010, so expect a great crowd Saturday night.  Temple is very beatable and is overvalued as the favorite here due to going 5-1 ATS in its last six games.  It needed some late-game magic to beat both East Carolina and SMU on the road recently, which are two teams that aren't as good as this South Florida outfit.  USF also beat ECU on the road and SMU by 24 at home.  The Bulls have won four of their last five with their only loss coming at Navy 17-29 in a game that was very close until the 4th quarter.  USF is 6-0 ATS in games played on a grass field this season.  Take South Florida.

7* Toledo/CMU NCAAF Tuesday *HEAVY HITTER* on Central Michigan +4.5

The Key: The Central Michigan Chippewas are a sensational 8-1 against the spread in 2015.  The oddsmakers continue to undervalue this team, and that's the case here as 4.5-point home underdogs.  They have lost four games this year, but they covered the spread in all four and arguably should have won three of them.  They outgained Michigan State, Western Michigan and Syracuse.  Oklahoma State, which is 9-0, only outgained them by 77 yards in an 11-point road win.  Central Michigan is rested having last played on October 31.  Toledo is in a tough spot here after playing on November 3 last Tuesday in a 32-27 home loss to Northern Illinois.  That loss is likely going to keep the Rockets out of the MAC Championship Game again, and these players know it.  It's going to be hard to bounce back from that loss as a result.  Central Michigan has won its last three home games all by 10 points or more, including a 29-19 victory over that same Northern Illinois team.  The Chippewas are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Take Central Michigan.

7* LSU/Alabama NCAAF Rivalry GAME OF THE YEAR on Alabama -7

The Key: LSU has breezed to 7-0 thanks to a soft schedule that has featured five home games.  But the two road games the Tigers have played in, they didn't play nearly as well.  They only won 21-19 at Mississippi State as 3-point favorites and 34-24 at Syracuse as 23.5-point favorites.  Alabama is built to stop the run and dominates all teams that think they can just run the football on them.  LSU is a one-dimensional offense that only averages 11 pass completions per game.  Alabama will be highly motivated to stop Leonard Fournette, who has benefited from playing such a soft schedule to this point.  Alabama only gives up 78 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry.  Two other one-dimensional running teams didn't have any success against the Crimson Tide this year.  They beat Wisconsin 35-17 and Georgia 38-10, both on the road.  Alabama can both pass (233 yards/game) and run (188 yards/game), and its balance offensively will be huge in this game.  LSU has allowed at least 19 points in all seven of its games this season, so it is no juggernaut defensively.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games following a win.  Take Alabama.

7* BYU/San Jose State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on San Jose State +13

The Key: San Jose State is a better team than it gets credit for.  It is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall while outgaining four of its last five opponents.  The Spartans outgained Fresno State by 296 yards, Auburn by 64 on the road, UNLV by 41 on the road, and New Mexico by 163 at home while winning three of those four contests.  BYU is a team that relies heavily on the pass to move the football, averaging 294 yards per game through the air.  That makes this an excellent matchup for the Spartans, who lead the country in giving up just 122 passing yards per game and 5.8 per attempt.  BYU is without three starting offensive linemen in Ryker Matthews, Ului Lapuaho and Kyle Johnson, so it is short-handed up front, too.  The Spartans are actually outgaining opponents by 63.6 yards per game this season.  The home team is 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series, including a 20-14 win by the Spartans in their only home meeting with the Cougars.  Even in their two road losses they only lost by 13 as 14.5-point dogs and by 3 as 18-point dogs.  This one will go right down to the wire as well.  BYU is 0-6 ATS off a bye week over the last three seasons, losing by 5.8 points per game.  Take San Jose State.

7* Ohio/BG MAC Game of the Week on Ohio +20

The Key: The betting public loves backing high-scoring teams like the Bowling Green Falcons.  They have been rewarded this year as the Falcons have gone 6-2 straight up and 6-2 against the spread up to this point.  But now the oddsmakers have over-adjusted here in listing the Falcons as 20-point favorites over rival Ohio.  Adding to this adjustment is that Ohio has been blown out in its past two games against Western Michigan and Buffalo.  But the loss to Buffalo was far from the 17-41 final score as the Bobcats actually outgained the Bulls by 49 yards in the game, but shot themselves in the foot with four turnovers.  Ohio has played some good football on the road this year, winning 14-12 at Akron and only losing 24-27 at Minnesota.  The Bobcats still believe they can win the MAC, but it starts with an upset here of the Falcons.  Look for them to put their best foot forward in this rivalry game.  The Bobcats are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  The Bobcats are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a bye week.  Take Ohio.

7* Northern Illinois/Toledo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Northern Illinois +7.5

The Key: Northern Illinois is the king of the MAC and isn't ready to let Toledo take its throne this year.  I like the 7.5 points we're getting here with how dominant the Huskies have been in this series.  They have gone 5-0 in their last five meetings with the Rockets.  They are 6-1 in the last seven meetings as well with their only loss coming by a single point.  Northern Illinois has three losses this year, but all three came by 10 points or less and all three on the road.  That includes a 13-20 loss at Ohio State in which they held the Buckeyes to less than 300 yards.  They have the better defense in this one.  Toledo is 7-0 but should have lost to both Arkansas and Iowa State.  It was outgianed by 197 yards by Arkansas and by 172 yards by Iowa State.  The Rockets also trailed 10-28 at UMass in their last game before coming back to win.   The Huskies are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 road games & 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a win by 21 points or more.  The underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings and the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Take Northern Illinois.

7* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State -4.5

The Key: Penn State is 5-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 16.4 points per game.  The Nittany Lions have held the opposition to just 11.8 points per game at home this year.  They lead the nation in sacks (31), and now they'll be up against a primary passing team in Illinois and Wes Lunt.  He won't have the luxury of handing the ball off to top running back Josh Ferguson, who is out with an injury.  Lunt will be under pressure all game as this Penn State defense carries it to victory.  The Nittany Lions are 8-1 straight up in their last nine home meetings with the Fighting Illini.  Not only do they win this one, but they cover with ease winning by a touchdown or more.  I also like the fact that James Franklin is 7-0 ATS off an ATS loss where his team won straight up as a favorite in all games he has coached.  Take Penn State.

7* Wyoming/Utah State ESPN 2 Friday Night Lights on UNDER 49

The Key: Wyoming is only averaging 19.5 points per game this season.  And that's with a healthy QB Cameron Coffman and a healthy WR in Tanner Gentry for most the year.  Both both Coffman and Gentry are going to miss this game due to injury.  Coffman was completing 65.8 percent of his passes with a 15-to-7 TD/INT ratio, so that's a big loss.  His backup is freshman Nick Smith, who has completed just 7-of-21 (33.3%) of his passes this year.  Gentry leads the team with 678 receiving yards and is also a huge loss.  I don't expect Wyoming to do much against this Utah State defense, which only gives up 321.3 yards per game.  At the same time, Utah State lacks firepower offensively as well.  It only averages 338.1 yards per game this year.  Both teams like to run the football as Wyoming rushed is 40 times per game and Utah State averages 38 attempts per contest.  That will keep the clock moving and aid this under.  Utah State beat Wyoming 20-3 last year and 35-7 in 2013 in two pretty low-scoring games that finished well under this 49-point total.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 games overall.  Wyoming is 17-3 UNDER as a road underdog of 21.5 or more points since 1992.  Take the UNDER.

7* Mountain West GAME OF THE YEAR on Wyoming +35

The Key: Wyoming is just 1-6 this season, but it is flying under the radar right now.  The Cowboys have covered the spread in three straight games, but yet they are still catching 35 points against Boise State tonight.  They only lost by 18 at Appalachian State as 26-point dogs, by 14 at Air Force as 21-point dogs, and they beat Nevada 28-21 at home last week as 6.5-point dogs.  They played their best game of the season against Nevada, racking up 485 yards of total offense while outgaining the Wolf Pack by 80 yards in the win.  They also have a 17-point loss as 25.5-point road dogs to Washington State this season.  This team has proven it can go on the road and play with good teams, and that will be the case again Saturday.  Wyoming is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 road games after a game where it committed no turnovers.  The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  The Broncos are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take Wyoming.

7* Memphis/Tulsa ESPN Friday Night Lights on Tulsa +10.5

The Key: The Memphis Tigers are in a very bad spot here.  They are coming off their biggest win in program history over Ole Miss last week.  It was their 13th straight victory, and this team is clearly overvalued as a result.  I don't expect the Tigers to put their best foot forward against Tulsa in this one.  The Golden Hurricane are only 1-3 in their last four games, but the three losses came to Oklahoma, Houston and ECU.  They were competitive in all three games with losses to both the Sooners and Cougars by 14 points, and then a 13-point loss to the Pirates where they actually held a 463-382 yard edge.  The Golden Hurricane clearly have the offense to score at will on this soft Memphis defense.  QB Dane Evans and company are averaging 550.5 yards per game and 6.0 per play behind the expertise of former Baylor offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery.  Tulsa will be amped up for this home game on ESPN.  The Golden Hurricane have won four of the last five meetings with the Tigers.  Memphis is 13-28 ATS in its last 41 games following two straight wins.  Take Tulsa.

7* NCAAF Thursday Night *TOTAL* Annihilator on Georgia Southern/Appalachian State UNDER 62

The Key: I like this UNDER quite a bit for a couple reasons.  The first is that both teams run the football a lot as Georgia Southern averages 56 attempts per game while Appalachian State averages 47.  Both teams are good at stopping the run too as Georgia Southern gives up 136 rushing yards per game (3.9 YPC) and Appalachian State yields 109 rushing yards per game (3.2/carry).  The Mountaineers have only given up 6.0 points per game against all teams outside of Clemson.  These teams have combined for 59 or fewer points in each of their three meetings over the last three years, and an average of 53.0 PPG.  Appalachian State is 5-1 UNDER in all games this season with 51 or fewer combined points in five of six.  Take the UNDER.

7* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Louisville +7

The Key: The Louisville Cardinals have really impressed me this season.  They have been in every game they've played, but they are just 2-3 on the year.  They lost to Auburn 24-31, Houston 31-34, and Clemson 17-20 to open the season.  But they have rebounded nicely since, beating Sanford 45-3 at home before going on the road and topping NC State 20-13.  So, they haven't lost a game yet this season by more than a touchdown.  That's key because they are catching a TD against Florida State, which may be the most overrated team in the country.  FSU has escaped with wins each of the last three weeks 14-0 over Boston College, 24-16 at Wake Forest, and 29-24 at home against Miami.  I believe Louisville is better than all three of those teams.  The Cardinals are off their bye week, so they will have had two weeks to rest and prepare for the Seminoles.  They have had this game circled all offseason fter blowing a 21-7 halftime lead to FSU last year to lost 31-42.  Louisville is 20-5 ATS in its last 25 road games with a total set of 42.5 to 49 points.  The Cardinals are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games off a conference game.  The Cardinals are 26-8 ATS in their last 34 road games.  The Seminoles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.  Take Louisville.

7* Cincinnati/BYU Non-Conference Game of the Week on Cincinnati +7

The Key: Statistically, the Cincinnati Bearcats are one of the best teams in the country.  They outgain their opponents by an average of 190 yards per game thanks to an offense that is putting up 587.2 yards per game.  I look for the Bearcats to have their way with a fatigued BYU defense that is working on a short week of rest after playing on Saturday.  Cincinnati hasn't played since October 1 and will be fresh and ready to go for this one.  This is a huge scheduling advantage for the Bearcats, and one that should have them likely winning this game outright.  Cincinnati is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 games following an ATS win.  BYU is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. teams who force one or fewer turnovers per game.  The Bearcats are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after gaining 475 or more yards in their previous game.  The Cougars are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 home games off a 2-game home stand.  Take Cincinnati.

7* Arkansas State/South Alabama Sun Belt *HEAVY HITTER* on Arkansas State -3.5

The Key: Arkansas State is just 2-3 this season, but the three losses have come to USC, Missouri and Toledo, and all three of those teams have been ranked in the Top 25 this year.  The Red Wolves even had Missouri on the ropes in a 27-20 home loss.  I really like this team because they have even played three games without their best player in QB Fredi Knighten, and they returned 15 starters from last year to make yet another run at a Sun Belt title.  Knighten returns from his 3-game absence tonight against South Alabama.  The Red Wolves are 3-0 all-time against South Alabama, including a 45-10 home win last year.  Knighten led the way with two passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown.  The Red Wolves outgained the Jaguars 400-201 for the game.  This is a very inexperienced South Alabama team that returned only 5 starters from last year.  But a surprising 3-2 start has the Jaguars overvalued.  Their two losses weren't even close as they lost at Nebraska 9-48 and at home to NC State 13-63.  There's no doubt Arkansas State would have given those teams a better fight.  Arkansas State is rushing for 193 yards per game, which is bad news for a South Alabama defense giving up 205 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry.  The Jaguars are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a win.  Take Arkansas State.

7* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Northwestern +10

The Key: Northwestern is 5-0 with impressive wins over Stanford, Duke and Minnesota by a combined score of 62-16.  Those are three really good opponents, and the Wildcats have made easy work of them.  But they still aren't getting any love here from the books as they are double-digits dogs to the Wolverines.  The Wildcats have lost the last 3 meetings to Michigan all by a single possession.  They lost in 2012 and 2013 in overtime and by a final of 10-9 last year.  It's safe to say that they are going to want revenge pretty badly in this one.  "Thinking back, those losses definitely stick out to me over the years so I definitely want to get one this week," senior left guard Matt Frazier said. Plays on road underdogs after allowing 9 points or less last game against an opponent that allowed 3 points or less in the first half of last game are 33-9 ATS over the last 5 years.  The Wolverines are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.  Take Northwestern.

7* NC State/VA Tech ESPN Friday Night Lights on Virginia Tech -2

The Key: VA Tech QB Michael Brewers returns from a shoulder injury that has sidelined him since the Ohio State game.  That's going to give this offense a huge boost.  The Hokies were on their way to upsetting Ohio State before Brewer got hurt, and they have been in a tailspin ever since.  But with him back, this offense is going to be much better tonight against NC State, which lost its first game of the season at home to Louisville last week after playing a bunch of cupcakes coming in.  The Hokies have one of the best defenses in the nation, too.  The Hokies are 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) after gaining 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game since 1992.  Take Virginia Tech.

7* ACC Game of the Month on Boston College +7

The Key: The Duke Blue Devils are coming off a massive win over the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets last week by a final of 34-20.  But they were very fortunate to win that game because they only gained 279 yards of total offense and were outgained by the Yellow Jackets by 37 yards.  They are now in a letdown spot this week against Boston College.  This is a very good Boston College team and perhaps one of the most underrated in the country.  After wins over Howard and Maine by a combined 100-3 score, the Eagles have really shown what they could do against great competition the last two weeks.  They were only outgained by 22 yards in a 0-14 loss to Florida State.  They outgained Northern Illinois by 173 yards in a 17-14 home win that was a bigger blowout than the score showed.  That's also the same NIU team that only lost to Ohio State 20-13.  Boston College has the type of defense that will keep it in a lot of games.  The Eagles are giving up an absurd 7.7 points and 118.0 yards per game this season.  Opponents are only averaging 2.3 yards per play against this stingy bunch, which may be the best in the country.  The Eagles are 38-20 ATS in their last 58 when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 75% or better.  The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Steve Addazio is 9-2 ATS off 1 or more consecutive ATS losses as the coach of BC.  Take Boston College.

7* UConn/BYU ESPN 2 Friday Night Lights on Connecticut +14.5

The Key: BYU has nothing left in the tank.  It is coming off four huge games against Nebraska, Boise State, UCLA and Michigan.  Now it will be working on a short week and won't have enough to put away UConn by more than four touchdowns.  I've been very impressed with this UConn defense and believe this will be a close, low-scoring game.  UConn is only giving up 17.2 points and 295.2 yards per game this season.  The Cougars are 7-28 ATS in their last 35 games following a 2-game road trip.  Take UConn.

7* SEC East GAME OF THE YEAR on Kentucky -2.5

The Key: Missouri is the most overrated team in college football.  That has really shown the past two weeks.  The heavily favored Tigers trailed UConn late in the third quarter last Saturday before putting together their lone touchdown drive of the day, then held on for a 9-6 victory on Anthony Sherril's interception on a fake field goal with 39 seconds remaining.  Missouri overcame a seven-point halftime deficit at Arkansas State the previous week to earn a 27-20 decision.  This is the most talented team that Mark Stoops has had at Kentucky yet.  The Wildcats upset South Carolina on the road 26-22, and then nearly upset Florida in a 9-14 home loss last week.  The Wildcats only lost 20-10 at Missouri last season and will be out for revenge here.  They finally have the team to beat Missouri.  They limited the Gators to just 245 yards last week.  Missouri has an awful offense and QB Maty Mauk has thrown for just 293 combined yards against Arkansas State and UConn the last two weeks.  The Tigers are averaging 3.2 yards per rush this season, and Mauk is averaging only 5.9 yards per pass attempt.  Take Kentucky.

7* Boise State/Virginia ESPN Friday Night Lights on Virginia +3

The Key: The Virginia Cavaliers play one of the most brutal non-conference schedules in the country every year.  They have actually held their own this season against a pair of Top 10 teams.  They lost to UCLA 16-34 as 18-point road underdogs, and then they nearly upset Notre Dame as 14-point home dogs with a 27-34 loss after giving up a touchdown in the closing seconds.  I have not been impressed with Boise State in a 3-point home win over Washington and an 11-point road loss to BYU.  The Broncos had to replace their two best players from last year in RB Jay Ajayi and QB Grant Hedrick.  They are already down their starting QB in Ryan Finley, which is going to prove to be a big blow as the season goes on.  They managed fine without him against Idaho State last week, but now they face a different animal here in Virginia.  The Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  The Broncos are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  The Cavaliers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.  The Cavaliers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.  Take Virginia.

7* Ole Miss/Alabama SEC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Ole Miss +7

The Key: Ole Miss went 9-4 last year and it would have been much better had injuries not struck them after a 7-0 start to the season.  But Hugh Freeze has improved his team's record in each of his first three seasons in Oxford.  Now he has his most talented team yet, and this is a veteran bunch with 16 returning starters.  In fact, 19 of their starters this season are upperclassmen.  Chad Kelly has been a big upgrade over Bo Wallace at quarterback to this point in leading the Rebels to a pair of impressive offensive showings to say the least.  Ole Miss beat Tennessee-Martin 76-3 and Fresno State 73-21 in its first two contests.  Alabama struggles with up-tempo, spread offenses like this one.  I clearly give the edge to Ole Miss on offense.  Alabama has questions at QB with Jake Coker, who is no more than a game manager.  Ole Miss has a better defense than it gets credit for after giving up 16 points per game last year.  I would actually make Ole Miss a favorite on a neutral field, and I believe Alabama's home field is getting too much credit here.  Ole Miss beat Alabama last year with a worse team than it has this season.  The Rebels are 8-0 ATS in the first half of the season over the last two years.  Take Ole Miss.

7* FSU/BC ESPN Friday Night Lights on Florida State -7

The Key: Boston College is getting way too much love from the books here due to beating a pair of I-AA teams in Maine and Howard by a combined 100-3.  When you consider the Eagles were 26-point favorites over Maine and 44-point favorites over Howard, it's easy to see how poor those two opponents really were.  Now they take a big step up in competition against what I feel is the best team in the ACC in Florida State.  The Seminoles have played two easy opponents too, but they've at least been FBS foes in Texas State and South Florida, and they've won a combined 93-30.  South Florida is a better team than it gets credit for, too.  Florida State has gone 5-0 in its last five meetings with Boston College with three of the last four wins coming by at least two touchdowns.  The Seminoles have been at least 14.5-point favorites in all five of those games, too.  So now they are only 7-point favorites in 2015 and I believe there is some value here because of it.  Take Florida State.

7* Oregon/MSU NCAAF Top 10 GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan State -3.5

The Key: The Michigan State Spartans are out for revenge from their 46-27 loss to the Oregon Ducks last year.  They were in control of that game with a 27-18 lead, but gave up the final 28 points to lose in a game that was much closer than the final would indicate.  It's tough to win in Eugene, but it's equally tough to win in East Lansing.  The Spartans are the most veteran team in the Big Ten with almost exclusively junior and senior starters.  They returned 14 starters and 51 lettermen this year.  The Spartans have gone at least 6-1 at home four of the past five years while going unbeaten in East Lansing on three occasions.  The home team is 5-0 in the five all-time meetings in this series.  Oregon's defense gave up 42 points and 549 total yards to Eastern Washington last week.  Oregon does have a good offense again, but Mark Dantonio has now seen it once and will be much better suited to stop it the second time around.  The Spartans are 9-1 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the past 3 seasons.  Take Michigan State.

7* Utah State/Utah NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah -12

The Key: The Utah Utes went 9-4 last season and opened the 2015 campaign with a convincing 24-17 win over the Michigan Wolverines where they allowed a garbage touchdown late to make the score closer than it was.  The Utes are solid in all areas with 14 returning starters this year.  I love their defense and feel like they will shut down this weak Utah State offense.  Utah State is in big trouble in this game after what it showed against lowly Southern Utah in the opener as a 31-point favorite.  The Aggies scored a punt return touchdown late in the fourth quarter to escape with a 12-9 victory.  Their offense only gained 250 total yards in the win.  Chuckie Keaton did not play well as he completed only 16 of 33 passes for 110 yards with an interception.  If that's all the Aggies could do offensively against Southern Utah, they have no chance of having success against this Utes defense.  That's especially the case with WR Hunter Sharp out, who had 939 receiving yards and seven touchdowns last season.  Utah beat Colorado State by 35 points in the bowl game last year, another team from the Mountain West that was better than this Utah State team.  The Utes are 13-1 in their last 14 showdowns with Utah State.  Utah is 8-0 ATS in non-conference play over the last 3 years.  Take Utah.

7* Ohio State/VA Tech ESPN Monday *REMATCH* on Virginia Tech +14

The Key: Virginia Tech beat Ohio State 35-21 on the road last season, and now it's a 14-point home underdog in the rematch?  Ohio State cannot possibly be better than it was last season, and it could suffer a hangover from winning the national title as soon as Week 1.  Virginia Tech is the type of team that can upset Ohio State again, let alone stay within two touchdowns.  The Hokies return 16 starters and 58 lettermen.  Their defense is going to be one of the best in the country with eight starters back from a unit that gave up 20.2 points per game last season.  Ohio State is without four of its better players due to suspension to boot.  Defensive end Joey Bosa is a potential No. 1 pick in next year's draft, and he's out.  Also gone are Jalin Marshall, Corey Smith and Dontre Wilson.  All three of these guys had at least 20 receptions for the Buckeyes last season in playing a big role in the offense.  Frank Beamer is 10-2 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of Virginia Tech.  This is his 29th season, so the Hokies are not dogs in Lane Stadium too often.  There's no way they should be catching 14 points in the rematch.  Take Virginia Tech.

7* NCAAF GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State -7

The Key: The Penn State Nittany Lions go from having just 64 scholarship players last year to 83 scholarship players in 2015 as the sanctions are now gone.  I look for them to now break through and compete for a Big Ten Championship in James Franklin's second season.  He returns 15 starters this season.  The offense is loaded with talent behind QB Christian Hackenberg and eight returning starters.  Hackenberg is a potential No. 1 draft pick despite struggling last year.  He has his top two receivers, leading rusher, and four offensive linemen back.  The defense is going to be suffocating again with seven starters back after allowing just 18.6 points and 279 yards per game last season.  Temple is also an improved team this year with 19 starts back, but this was a team that was outgained by nearly 70 yards per game in AAC play last year.  The offense isn't very good, and I just don't see Temple being able to score enough points to keep up against this solid Penn State defense.  The Nittany Lions outgained the Owls by 118 yards last year in their 30-13 victory, which was their 31st-straight triumph in this head-to-head series.  That stat alone lets you know that the Nittany Lions should be favored by more.  Take Penn State.

7* NCAAF Thursday Night *HEAVY HITTER* on TCU -16.5

The Key: TCU loaded this season with 15 returning starters from a team that went 12-1 last season.  The offense is going to pick up right where it left off in the opener against Minnesota.  That's because the Frogs return 10 starters from an offense that put up 46.5 points and 533 yards per game last season.  Minnesota went 8-5 last season despite actually getting outgained by 11 yards per game on the year.  Now it returns just 12 starters in 2015.  The Gophers should be on the same level defensively as they were last season with seven starters back, but their offense is going to be even worse even after averaging just 357 yards per game last season.  RB David Cobb and TE Maxx Williams are off to the NFL, leaving the Gophers with no proven playmakers.  They lost four of their top five receivers.  Mitch Leidner isn't a very good quarterback as he threw for just 1,798 yards on 51.5 percent completions last year.  His job is going to be even more difficult now with the loss of his two studs.  Betting on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points who won 80% or more of their games the previous season in non-conference games between two Power 5 conferences are 24-4 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take TCU.

7* National Championship *HEAVY HITTER* on Oregon -6

The Key: Oregon is a runaway freight train that I'm not about to step in front of here. The Ducks are 9-0 SU and ATS in their last nine games with these wins coming by an average of 26.3 points. The smallest margin of victory during this span was still 12 points. The Ducks have several impressive trends going under coach Helfrich. They are 10-0 ATS after scoring 50 points or more, 7-0 ATS after a win of 35 points or more, 6-0 ATS after two straight wins of 28 points or more and 6-0 ATS in games played away from home following four or more consecutive wins. It is also worth noting that the Ducks are 4-0 ATS in their last four bowl games and 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games. Ohio State has pulled off back-to-back improbable victories in impressive fashion since losing J.T. Barrett, but they are up against a different animal here. Ohio State actually trailed Alabama 21-6 and another slow start against the Ducks will likely mean its doom. Oregon never takes its foot off the gas pedal, and that will put a lot of pressure on the Ohio State defense as well as an inexperience signal caller (Cardale Jones). Ohio State has been a great story with all that it's been able to overcome at the QB position, but I think it finally runs out of magic against Marcus Mariota and the Ducks.

7* NCAAF Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa +4

The Key: Iowa underachieved this season, and the coaching staff is taking plenty of heat from the fan base as a result. If Iowa loses to Tennessee, head coach Kirk Ferentz will enter next season on the hot seat. I expect him to have his team fully prepared and motivated to make sure that doesn't happen. Ferentz typically does a good job in bowl prep and is an impressive 4-2 in bowls versus current SEC teams. Iowa blew a big lead and lost to Nebraska in OT in its regular-season finale, but it has been terrific in bounce-back spots at 41-19-1 ATS in its last 61 games following a loss. The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS the last two seasons when playing away from home following a loss and have won these games by an average of 10.2 points. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six bowl games and 4-1 ATS in their last five versus SEC foes. Take the points.

7* New Year's Day *HEAVY HITTER* on Wisconsin +7

The Key: Wisconsin will be lacking no motivation after being brutally embarrassed in the Big Ten Championship. The Badgers will draw added motivation from head coach Gary Anderson leaving for Oregon State. They will be out to show Anderson he made the wrong move. Auburn won't be that excited about this game after playing for a national title last year. The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus teams that have a winning record and 0-6 ATS in their last six games on grass. Wisconsin wasn't able to run the football on Ohio State as it was held to just 71 yards on the ground, but Auburn isn't as physical as Ohio State up front. Besides, the Badgers take pride in their running attack and are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Take the points.

7* Orange Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Mississippi State -6.5

The Key: Mississippi State has done an excellent job stuffing the run this season. It ended the regular season ranked 25th in the nation against the run with 126.5 yards per game allowed. With a month to prepare for Georgia Tech's run-heavy attack, the Bulldogs should take care of business. They are 11-3 ATS versus excellent running teams that average 5.25 yards per carry or more under coach Mullen. The Yellow Jackets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven bowl games and 1-4 ATS in their last five versus SEC opponents. Lay the points.

7* Pre-New Year's Bowl Game of the Year on Notre Dame +7.5

The Key: Notre Dame is being undervalued because of a 0-4 finish that ended with a 49-14 loss at USC. I'll gladly take the points as the Fighting Irish won or lost by four points or less in all but two games this season. This is too many points for LSU to be laying considering how much it has struggled offensively this season. The Tigers rank 83rd in the country in total offense and have no passing game. The Fighting Irish will make LSU beat them through the air, and I don't see it happening. While LSU is stout defensively, Notre Dame has an offense capable of giving the Tigers problems. The Irish boast the 34th-best offense in the nation overall and the 16th-best passing attack. In addition, LSU is 1-8 ATS the last three seasons in games played away from home that following a win. It has lost these contests by an average score of 24.5 to 19.6. Take the points.

7* Liberty Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas A&M +2.5

The Key: West Virginia has struggled against strong passing teams like Texas A&M. In fact, the Mountaineers are 0-6 ATS the last three seasons in games played away from home versus teams that average 275.0 yards per game through the air or more. They have lost these contests by an average score of 47.7 to 23.5. It is also worth noting that West Virginia hasn't performed well when getting extra time off in recent seasons. It is 0-7 ATS the last three seasons when getting more than a typical week of preparation time. In addition, the Mountaineers are on a 0-8 ATS slide when laying points on a neutral field and have lost these games by an average score of 30.4 to 24.5. Sumlin does an excellent job preparing his kids and has won his first two bowls at A&M. Take the Aggies.

7* Independence Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami -3.5

The Key: The South Carolina defense took a big step back this season, and it's this side of the football that will cost them against the Hurricanes. The Gamecocks rank 93rd nationally in both total and scoring defense and have been especially bad against the run, ranking 108th with 214.4 yards per game allowed. That doesn't bode well for them as they get set to face Duke Johnson, who has 1,520 yards and 10 touchdowns on the season. Miami has been exceptional defensively, ranking 14th in the country in total defense. It has been especially strong against the pass, ranking 10th in the nation with 184.1 yards per game allowed. The Hurricanes should have success slowing down a South Carolina offense that likes to throw the football. The Hurricanes are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. The Gamecocks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight neutral site games. Lay the points.

7* Potato Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Western Michigan -110

The Key: Western Michigan is the more complete team on both sides of the football. The Broncos match up very well with Air Force's one-dimensional offense. They ranked a respectable 37th nationally against the run this season, and having had a month to prepare, I like their chances or slowing down Air Force's ground game. Western Mich is balanced and explosive offensively, and that doesn't bode well for the Falcons, who are 0-6 ATS the last three seasons when playing away from home versus teams that average 31.0 ppg or more. They have lost these six games by an average score of 40.0 to 16.3. Air Force's best shot is too force turnovers, which is something it hasn't done very well this season. The Falcons are 0-9 ATS the last three seasons away from home after two consecutive games of forcing one turnover or none. The Broncos had cover the spread in 10 straight games before losing to Northern Illinois Nov. 28. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss. Take Western Mich.

7* NCAAF Total of the Year on Ohio State/Wisconsin Under 52.5

The Key: Ohio State has finished over the total in 10 of its last 11 games. Wisconsin has finished over the number in five of its last seven. As a result, we are getting a great number. The Ohio State offense struggled in its first game without Braxton Miller, and I expect to see similar offensive struggles in Cardale Jones' first extensive action. Wisconsin is one of the best defensive teams in the entire nation, ranking 2nd in total defense (260.3 ypg) and 4th in scoring defense (16.9 ppg). Urban Meyer knows he must take a conservative approach to give his team the best opportunity to win against the stout Wisconsin defense. Ohio State also boasts an elite defense, one that ranks 19th in total "D" (333.5 ypg) and 29th in scoring "D" (22.9 ppg). Ohio State will be able to sell out on the run because it has athletes in the secondary who can more than hold their own. With both teams very likely to stick to their ground attacks, the clock will keep moving. The under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings between these teams. It is also 6-2 in the Buckeyes' last eight neutral site games. Take the under.

7* NCAAF Game of the Year on Temple +7

The Key: I love Temple in this spot. The Owls are at home on Senior Day needing a win to become bowl eligible and seeking revenge for last season's 18-point loss at Cincinnati. Needless to say, they will be extremely motivated. Temple has been tough at home where it defeated East Carolina by double digits and played Memphis to a three-point game. Under coach Rhule, Temple is 6-0 ATS versus teams that average 31.0 ppg or more. It is also 6-0 ATS under Rhule versus teams that average 425.0 ypg or more. The Bearcats are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game and 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Take the points.

7* NCAAF Black Friday *HEAVY HITTER* on South Alabama +10

The Key: This line is inflated due to South Alabama's 0-6 ATS slide. The Jaguars have won their last three home games, and they'll be lacking no motivation on senior day. They were smashed 42-14 at Navy last season, and that embarrassing loss will be the driving force behind a strong effort on Senior Day. Navy hasn't played a true road games since Oct. 4 so it will be out of its comfort zone. You want to fade road favorites that average 440.0 ypg or more when they are up against a team that averages 330.0 to 390.0 ypg if the fade team allowed 6.25 yards per play or more in its last game. Doing so has produced a 27-6 ATS mark the last five seasons. These teams have been favored by 11.1 points on average but have won by only 4.3 points on average. Take the points.

7* ACC Game of the Week on Virginia +6

The Key: This is a major letdown spot for Miami, which put everything into last week's showdown against Florida State only to come up short after blowing a 16-0 lead. I don't see the Hurricanes being able to recover from that blow on the road where they are 1-3. Virginia is better than its 4-6 record leads you to believe, and it has had the benefit of a bye week to prepare. Plus, the Cavaliers need to win their last two to become bowl eligible, and they will be driven by that. They are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following a cover, 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the points.

7* NCAAF Blowout Game of the Month on Nebraska -10

The Key: Odds makers appear to be begging for money on Minnesota, which is tied with Nebraska for second place in the Big Ten West. After destroying Iowa 51-14, the Golden Gophers held their own against Ohio State last Saturday. Yet, they're catching double digits? Something smells fishy. It's Senior Day in Lincoln, and the Huskers will be lacking no motivation. They were completely embarrassed in Madison, WI last week, and they were upset at Minnesota last season. They'll be out to save face and exact revenge here. Nebraska is 6-0 at home this season where it has won by an average of 22.5 points. The Cornhuskers are also 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a spread loss and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss of more than 20 points. Lay the points.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Oregon State +9.5

The Key: Motivated by back-to-back upset losses to Cal and Washington State and further fueled by last season's loss at Arizona State, the Beavers will give the Sun Devils a game. Since 1992, Oregon State is an impressive 30-14 ATS when it checks in off two straight losses to conference opponents. It's 22-9 ATS during this span off a loss of seven points or less in conference play. It is also on a 9-2 ATS run when checking in off an upset loss at home to conference foe. The defensive side of the football has really let the Beavers down the past two weeks. However, they are 6-0 ATS all-time after allowing 450 yards or more in two consecutive games under coach Riley and have won by an average score of 32.5 to 24.7 in this spot. The home team has had a huge advantage in this series as it has won 12 of the last 14 meetings. The Sun Devils are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Take the points.

7* ACC Game of the Month on Virginia Tech +5.5

The Key: The Hokies are in the midst of a rare losing streak, but having had a bye week to regroup, I expect them to right the ship. As if their current three-game slide isn't enough motivation, they saw a nine-game win streak over Duke come to an end with last season's 13-10 loss to the Blue Devils. They'll be out for payback and to keeps their bowl hopes alive. The Hokies are 17-8 ATS following two of more consecutive losses under coach Beamer. They are also 13-4 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7.0 points under his watch. Take the points.

7* NCAAF Favorite of the Week on Western Kentucky -7

The Key: Western Kentucky's 3-5 record is deceiving. The Hilltoppers have played five of their first eight games on the road and have three single-possession losses on the season. The schedule now turns in their favor as they play their next three at home, and I expect them to take advantage. UTEP has been a bad investment as an underdog, going 3-11 ATS in the role going back to the start of last season. The Miners have been a good bet this season, covering the number in six of eight games and each of their last three. However, now's the time to fade away as they are 1-10 ATS since 1992 when checking in with covers in six or seven games during an eight-game span. The Miners rolled against So. Miss last week, but the score was a little deceiving as they were outgained 402-234. Performances like that have been telling as they are 0-6 ATS the last three seasons in road games after being outgained by 125 or more total yards last game. You want to back home favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points that allow 440.0 ypg or more when they are matched up against a team that gives up 390.0 to 440.0 ypg. Doing so has produced a 44-18 ATS mark since 1992. Lay the points.

7* NCAAF Underdog of the Week on Texas-San Antonio +10

The Key: UTSA's bye week couldn't have come at a better time. The Roadrunners lost 34-0 at home to UTEP as a 14-point favorite last time out. I expect the extra time off to do them some good and for them to regroup here. Consider that road underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points that are off an upset loss at home as a double-digit favorite are 41-11 ATS in conference play since 1992. The Roadrunners have been a sweet play on the road where they are 12-4 ATS in their last 16. They are 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10.0 points over the last 3 seasons. Rice has won five in a row by 14 points or more and odds makers are only asking it to lay 10 here? Perhaps they're thinking what I'm thinking. The Owls will be peeking ahead to next week's matchup at Marshall. Take the points.

7* Big 12 Game of the Week on Oklahoma State +14.5

The Key: I missed with Oklahoma State last week but will come right back with the Cowboys here as they are showing tremendous value as a double-digit underdog. They are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games following an ATS loss, 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit loss at home, 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game and 7-0 ATS in their last seven games in November. You want to fade favorites of 10.5 to 21.0 points that allowed nine points or less last game when they are matched up against a team that's off two straight losses of 17 points or more. Doing so has produced a 29-7 ATS mark since 1992. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Take the points.

7* C-USA Game of the Year on Florida International +6

The Key: Motivated by back-to-back defeats and well-prepared following a bye week, FIU will give Rice all it wants and more. You want to fade teams like Rice with a +/- 0.6 yards per play differential when they are on the road after giving up 225 total yards or less in their previous game when they are matched up against a team that is being outgained by 0.6 to 1.2 yards per play. Doing so has produced a 35-8 (81%) ATS mark since 1992. The Golden Panthers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last five conference games. Take the points.

7* NCAAF Bailout on Hawaii +3

The Key: This is a letdown spot for Nevada as it makes the long trip to Hawaii following a huge upset win at BYU. Not only is this a bounce-back spot for the Warriors following a loss at San Diego State, but it is a revenge spot following three consecutive double-digit defeats to the Wolf Pack. The Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last six following a loss while the Wolf Pack are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games following a win. The Warriors have been a terrific investment at home where they are on a 5-0 ATS run. The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings, and the underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Take the points.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Month on Washington +3.5

The Key: Expect a letdown from Arizona State following a big blowout win over Stanford. ASU has had its way with Washington in recent years, which means the Huskies will be lacking no motivation. It also means the Sun Devils will be susceptible - their tendency will be to look ahead to Utah. Washington is 3-1 at home, and the Sun Devils are a weak 15-33-3 ATS in their last 51 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Huskies are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 home games, 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a loss of more than 20 points. Take the points.

7* Big 12 Game of the Year on Oklahoma State pk

The Key: Motivated by last week's brutally embarrassing 42-9 loss at TCU, and further fueled by last season's 30-21 defeat at West Virginia, Oklahoma State will take care of business Saturday. The Cowboys are an impressive 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games. They are 17-3 ATS at home since 1992 following a loss of 21 points or more. They have bounced back to win by an average score of 33.5 to 24.1 in this spot. The Mountaineers are in a letdown spot following a huge win over Baylor. You want to fade road teams in weeks 5-9 that check in off an upset win at home. Doing so has produced a 20-2 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the Cowboys.