7* Tuesday MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Akron/Western Michigan OVER 62

The Key: Western Michigan will gets its points against Akron's defense and can pretty much name its number.  The Zips should get their points as well being an improved offense under QB Zach Gibson, who has 72% completions, 8 TD and 0 INT in basically 3 starts this year.  The Zips scored 35 points against Bowling Green, 21 against Miami and 25 against Ball State in his 3 starts.  He threw for 291 against a good Miami defense and 331 against Ball State.  The OVER is 5-1 in Zips last 6 road games.  The OVER is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 home games against a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 6-1 in Broncos last 7 Tuesday games.  Take the OVER.

7* ACC Game of the Year on North Carolina -2.5

The Key: The North Carolina Tar Heels have played a much tougher schedule than the Wake Forest Demon Deacons this season and they have had tough luck in close games, while the Demon Deacons have won all their close games.  That's the difference in UNC being 4-4 while Wake is 8-0.  But the Tar Heels will hand the Demon Deacons their first loss of the year this week.  The Tar Heels are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 home games against a team with a winning record.  The home team has covered 6 of the last 7 matchups in this series.  Take North Carolina.

7* VT/BC NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Boston College +3

The Key: This is Boston College's Red Bandana game that stems back to 9/11 and the heroes.  Look up the story it's pretty good.  The Eagles have been great in this game year after year as it adds to their motivation.  And they won't have any problem being motivated with rival Virginia Tech coming to town for a National TV Friday night game.  I expect them to win this game on the field, but I'll take the 3 points.  The Hokies are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games off 2 straight games where they committed zero turnovers.  The Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games after gaining 125 or fewer rushing yards in 3 straight games.  The Hokies are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games.  Virginia Tech is 8-25 ATS in its last 33 games as a road favorite.  The Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games.  Take Boston College.

7* Tuesday MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Ohio/Miami (Ohio) UNDER 53

The Key: Two poor offensive teams go at it tonight in MACtion when Miami (Ohio) visits Ohio.  Both teams are averaging just 21.1 PPG and I think this total is too high.  8 of the last 11 matchups between these teams have resulted in 47 or fewer combined points.  The Redhawks are 8-1 UNDER in their last 9 MAC road games.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Redhawks last 10 games off a conference win.  The UNDER is 9-0 in Redhawks last 9 games off an ATS win.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 matchups.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Bobcats last 5 games overall.  Take the UNDER.

7* Big 12 Game of the Year on Kansas +30.5

The Key: Oklahoma State hasn't won a game by more than 11 points this season.  They may win this game by more than 11, but it's not going to be by 31-plus.  Kansas nearly upset Oklahoma last week and is getting better under their first-year head coach.  They will keep battling and keep this game competitive for 4 quarters.  The Cowboys are in a hangover situation after suffering their 1st loss of the season last week against Iowa State.  Take Kansas.

7* Navy/Tulsa NCAAF Friday Night Lights on UNDER 46.5

The Key: Tulsa has had the last 2 weeks off to prepare to face Navy's triple-option.  It is one of the weakest offenses in recent memory for Navy, and the Golden Hurricane should shut it down.  The Midshipmen average just 17.9. PPG and 280.3 YPG this year.  They do have a good defense and shorten games with their offense.  They give up 356 YPG on defense.  Tulsa has an above average defense and is good at stopping the run, giving up 3.8 YPC this year.  Take the UNDER.

7* Oregon/UCLA Pac-12 *HEAVY HITTER* on UCLA -1

The Key: The Oregon Ducks have been getting too much love since winning at Ohio State.  They have lost to Stanford, nearly lost to Cal and played terribly against Arizona in their last 3 games while going 0-3 ATS.  UCLA is the more legit of these 2 teams and is a field goal away from being 6-1 this year.  They want to avenge their 35-38 road loss at Oregon last year and I expect them to.  The Ducks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games off a win.  Take UCLA.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Colorado State -2.5

The Key: Colorado State is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games overall.  The only loss came by 10 points at Iowa when they had the Hawkeyes on the ropes as 24-point dogs.  They won by 16 at Toledo as 14.5-point dogs.  They won by 18 over San Jose State as 3.5-point favorites.  They won by 29 at New Mexico as 13-point favorites.  Utah State is 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last 3 games overall with its only win coming by 4 points against a very bad UNLV team.  They also lost by 14 to BYU and by 24 to Boise State, both at home.  The Aggies are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games as home underdogs.  Take Colorado State.

7* Sun Belt Game of the Month on Arkansas State +18

The Key: Game report coming soon.

7* MAC Game of the Month on Ball State -1

The Key: After a rough start to the season, the Ball State Cardinals are back to looking like the team that won the MAC last season.  They are coming off a 12-point win over Army as a 10.5-point dog and a 25-point win at Western Michigan as a 12.5-point dog.  Now they basically are a pick 'em against Eastern Michigan, a team that isn't nearly on those other two teams' levels.  Eastern Michigan is 4-2 but the wins have come against 4 of the worst teams in the nation.  They are in over their head here against the defending champs.  Ball State is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 against a team with a winning record.  The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games off an upset win as a dog.  Take Ball State.

7* California/Oregon NCAAF Friday Night Lights on California +14

The Key: The Oregon Ducks just had their dreams of making the college football playoff crushed with a 24-31 loss to Stanford last game.  The game prior was a misleading 41-19 win over an 0-5 Arizona team.  They were outgained by 42 yards by the Wildcats but were +5 in turnovers.  This Oregon team continues to get too much respect for its upset win at Ohio State.  Oregon just lost leading rusher C.J. Verdell and his 397 yards and 5 TD to a season-ending injury, too.  California always seems to play Oregon tough.  The Bears are 1-1 SU & 2-0 ATS in the last 2 matchups the last 2 seasons.  They won outright 21-17 as 9-point home dogs last year.  The only lost 7-17 as 21.5-point road dogs in 2019.  They have the defense to keep them in this game for 4 quarters.  They need their offense to play like it did at Washington 2 games back when they had 457 yards against a very good Huskies defense in an OT loss.  The Golden Bears are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games as road underdogs.  The Ducks are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as favorites.  Take California.

7* Georgia Southern/South Alabama NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on UNDER 51

The Key: Two teams that love to run the football and are both good against the run square off in this Sun Belt showdown Thursday night.  The clock will be moving constantly to help aid in cashing this UNDER.  Georgia Southern averages 47 rushing attempts per game and only 23 passing.  South Alabama averages 40 rushing attempts per game and only 30 passing.  Georgia Southern is holding opponents to 150 RYPG, while South Alabama is holding foes to 121 RYPG.  The UNDER is 2-0 in the 2 matchups between these teams the last 2 years with 41 and 37 combined points scored.  The UNDER is 18-7-1 in Jaguars last 26 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Jaguars last 7 home games.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Jaguars last 9 games on grass.  We've seen 51 or fewer combined points in 7 of the 11 games played between these teams this year.  Take the UNDER.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Month on Utah +3

The Key: The Utah Utes are coming off their bye week and have had time to put the distractions and the poor start behind them.  Look for them to put their best foot forward against USC Saturday.  Utah is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games off a conference win.  The Utes are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games as road dogs.  Utah is 46-22-2 ATS in its last 70 games as a dog.  The Utes are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 October games.  Take Utah.

7* Stanford/Arizona State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Stanford +13.5

The Key: The Arizona State Sun Devils are starting to get too much love after 2 straight blowout wins over Colorado and UCLA.  They are being asked to win this game by at least 14 points and it's too much.  Stanford has been underrated all season.  They have upset wins over both USC and Oregon, which were expected to be the 2 best teams in the Pac-12 coming into the year.  So they have proven what they are capable of.  And they are more than capable of going on the road and hanging with Arizona State and possibly pulling the upset.  The Cardinal are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.  The Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team with a winning record.  The Sun Devils are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as home favorites.  Take Stanford.

7* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Year on Louisiana Tech +19

The Key: The LA Tech Bulldogs are close to being 4-0 despite a brutal schedule.  Their 2 losses are to Mississippi State and SMU by a combined 3 points.  And they had both of them on the ropes with late leads in the 4th quarter.  This couldn't be a worst situation for NC State.  They are feeling fat and happy off their win over Clemson last week.  They won't give the Bulldogs their full attention this week.  The Wolfpack are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games against good passing teams that average 8 YPA or more.  Take Louisiana Tech.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Iowa -3

The Key: The Iowa Hawkeyes are 4-0 this season behind an elite defense that is one of the best in the country.  And defense clearly travels, so I like Iowa to cover this short 3-point spread on the road at Maryland tonight.  The Hawkeyes are giving up just 11.0 PPG and 271.5 YPG while forcing 9 turnovers in 4 games.  These teams have a common opponent in Kent State.  Iowa only gave up 264 yards to Kent State.  Maryland allowed 458 yards to the Golden Flashes.  While Iowa has already played two Top 25 teams in Indiana and Iowa State, Maryland has feasted on a weak schedule during its 4-0 start.  The Hawkeyes are more battle-tested and will get the job done here.  The Hawkeyes are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as road favorites.  The Terrapins are 9-27 ATS in their last 36 games off a win.  Maryland is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Iowa.

7* SEC Game of the Month on South Carolina +5.5

The Key: The South Carolina Gamecocks are underrated this season.  They are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS and just played Georgia last week in a cover.  Now they get to host Kentucky, which will be playing its first road game of the year.  The Wildcats weren't impressive in their 7-point home win over Missouri or their 5-point home win as a 31-point favorite against UT-Chattanooga last week.  They barely escaped with victory over that bad FCS team, and they shouldn't be road favorites here against the Gamecocks.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  Take South Carolina.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on UNLV +30.5

The Key: The Fresno State Bulldogs are in the ultimate letdown spot tonight.  They just upset UCLA late Saturday night in a 40-37 win as 10.5-point dogs.  That was one of the most exciting, back-and-forth games of the season.  QB Jake Haener played through an injury and just kept coming in one of the most remarkable games you will ever see by a quarterback.  He had to basically be carried off the field and cannot be 100%.  Look for the Bulldogs to be cautious with him.  They just won't be able to get up for UNLV.  This is actually a step down in competition for UNLV after facing Arizona State and Iowa State the last 2 weeks.  The Rebels are expected to get back QB Doug Brumfield after he missed the last 2 games with injury.  He played well in the opener against Eastern Washington with 117 passing yards and 9.0 YPA as well as 27 rushing yards and a score.  The Rebels only lost that game 33-35 (OT) as 2.5-point dogs against one of the best teams in FCS.  Fresno State has only won one of its last 10 matchups with the Rebels by more than 29 points.  Take UNLV.

7* Marshall/App State NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on OVER 59

The Key: Marshall is a dead nuts OVER team this year.  They average 43.7 PPG and 603.7 YPG on offense and run 80 plays per game.  Appalachian State's offense will have no problem keeping up with them as they average 33.3 PPG and 446.3 YPG along with 68 plays per game.  Marshall just scored 80 combined points with East Carolina last game and gave up 553 yards to a mediocre Pirates offense.  The OVER is 21-5 in Thundering Herd last 26 non-conference games.  The OVER is 6-1 in Thundering Herd last 7 September games.  Take the OVER.

7* NCAAF Game of the Week on Utah -8.5

The Key: Kyle Whittingham called out his team after losing the line of scrimmage to BYU in their upset loss last week.  Look for his players to respond here, and for the Utes to put it on the San Diego State Aztecs.  San Diego State will be without starting QB Jordan Brookshire after he was knocked out of the Arizona game last week.  The Aztecs have played a weak schedule of New Mexico State and Arizona thus far, so this is a big step up in competition.  San Diego State was actually outgained by New Mexico State in their opener.  That's a New Mexico State team that lost 30-3 to UTEP and 34-25 to New Mexico.  Whittingham is 22-7 ATS after a game where his team forced zero turnovers as the coach of Utah.  The Utes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 against Mountain West teams.  Utah is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last 5 matchups with four of the wins coming by 16 points or more.  Take Utah.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Illinois +7

The Key: I like the price we are getting on Illinois tonight as 7-point dogs to Maryland.  We are getting this price because Illinois is coming off two bad losses in a row to UTSA and Virginia.  But keep in mind that Illinois upset Nebraska at home in their opener with a healthy Brandon Peters at quarterback.  Peters left that game and hasn't returned since.  But Peters is now back this week and will give the offense a spark.  I think Maryland is overrated off a 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start that included a win against Howard.  The other win was gift-wrapped to them by West Virginia who lost the turnover battle 4-0 in a 30-24 win by the Terrapins.  The Fighting Illini will put up a much better fight than they have the last 2 weeks in this standalone home game in front of a good crowd and with Peters back under center.  Bets on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 6.25 YPP or more last game that has 8 or more offensive starters including their QB returning in the first month of the season are 23-5 ATS since 1992.  Take Illinois.

7* NCAAF Game of the Week on Middle Tennessee +20

The Key: Middle Tennessee is primed to be one of the most improved teams in the country this year.  16th-year head coach Rick Stockstill brought back 19 starters and added in NC State transfer Bailey Hockman at quarterback.  The Blue Raiders won their opener 50-15 over Monmouth as an 8.5-point favorite.  That was a quality FCS team that came into the season ranked 13th in the country.  Hockman went 17-of-22 passing for 215 yards and three touchdowns in the win.  This is a letdown spot for Virginia Tech coming off a big upset win over North Carolina in the opener last week.  The Hokies took advantage of three UNC turnovers in a 17-10 win.  Their offense is a problem with just 296 total yards against a weak UNC defense.  And they are going to have a hard time covering this big number with their offense.  Hockman and company can keep up with them on the scoreboard.  And don't be surprised if the Hokies are flat off that upset win, and with a game against West Virginia on deck.  The Blue Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as underdogs.  The Hokies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games off a win.  Take Middle Tennessee.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Kansas +26.5

The Key: The Kansas Jayhawks had one of the best hires of the offseason by bringing in Lance Leipold from Buffalo.  He took the Bulls to 2 MAC title games the past 3 seasons and previously went 109-6 at D-3 Wisconsin-Whitewater.  He is one of the best up and coming head coaches in the country.  Les Miles didn't leave the cupboard bare as he has 16 returning starters and Miles recruited as well as he could have to Kansas.  The Jayhawks went 0-9 last year, so the fact that they finally won a game even though it was against South Dakota in the opener is a big step in the right direction.  It will give these players some confidence moving forward.  Now they face an overrated Coastal Carolina team that nearly went undefeated last year.  Because of that, you are paying a tax to back Coastal Carolina.  Keep in mind Kansas was a 4.5-point home favorite against Coastal Carolina last year and is now a 26.5-point underdog this year, a 31-point adjustment.  Kansas lost that game 23-38, but they outgained Coastal 367 to 318 for the game.  But they were -3 in turnovers which was the difference.  I just think the price is right to back the Jayhawks here as they stay within 4 touchdowns of the Chanticleers.  Take Kansas.

7* Louisville/Ole Miss NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Ole Miss -9

The Key: There's a lot to like about Ole Miss this year coming off a 5-5 season in which they took Alabama to the wire and beat Indiana in their bowl game.  The Rebels have an elite offense that put up 39.2 PPG and 556 YPG last year.  They have 8 starters back on offense and QB Matt Corral.  They have 9 starters back on defense and will be improved there.  Louisville went 4-7 last year with its 4 wins all coming in the role of the favorite against overmatched teams like WKU, Syracuse, Florida State and Wake.  Only 13 starters return for the Cardinals and they lose all of their big playmakers on offense, which is going to make it hard for them to keep up with Ole Miss on the scoreboard in a shootout in this one.  The Rebels will get their points.  Take Ole Miss.

7* Notre Dame/FSU NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on OVER 55

The Key: Florida State and Notre Dame played last year with the Fighting Irish winning 42-26 for 68 combined points.  This rematch should sail OVER the number.  Florida State's defense is not very good after giving up 36 PPG last year and 7 starters back on D this year.  But the Seminoles will have their best offense in years in Mike Norvell's 2nd season.  He led the high-powered offenses at Memphis going 38-15 in his 4 years there including a New Year's 6 Bowl in 2019 before coming here.  McKenzie Milton comes over from UCF to give him his next great quarterback.  And he has 10 returning starters on offense to work with.  Notre Dame will be better than expected on offense this year despite all they lost.  They will also be weaker on defense this year, and that's even after giving up 31 or more points in 4 of their final 6 games.  Take the OVER.

7* Fresno/Oregon NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Fresno State +20.5

The Key: The Fresno State Bulldogs looked great in their 45-0 win over Connecticut.  The had 538 yards of offense and will be great on that side of the ball again this year.  They gave up just 107 yards on defense and will be improved there as well.  Oregon did give up 28.3 PPG and 406 YPG last year and won't be great defensively, especially with all the players they are missing in their secondary for the opener.  Anthony Brown is a downgrade at QB now that Tyler Shough left.  Oregon will be good this year, but they are now 3 touchdowns better than this tough Fresno State team from an underrated Mountain West Conference.  The Bulldogs are 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 games, including 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Pac-12 games.  Take Fresno State.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Duke -6.5

The Key: The Duke Blue Devils are flying under the radar coming into the 2021 season.  That's because they went just 2-9 last season.  But they were much better than their record.  Amazingly, the Blue Devils finished -19 in turnover differential last year.  It can only get better this year with improved QB play as Chase Brice transferred and was a turnover machine.  One of Duke's win last year came against this same Charlotte team as they blew them out of the building, 53-19.  Now they are just being asked to cover a 6.5-point here and win by a TD or more to cover.  I certainly like the price.  Charlotte went 2-4 last year with its only wins coming against North Texas and UTEP.  Three losses came by 15 points or more.  The 49ers only have 5 starters back on defense and should get picked apart on that side of the field this season.  Take Duke.

7* Thursday NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on East Carolina +10

The Key: The East Carolina Pirates were much better than their 3-6 record last year.  They got robby against Tulsa by the refs the week after losing to Navy by 4.  But they played their best football of the season the last 2 games beating Temple by 25 and upsetting SMU outright by 14 as 12-point dogs.  That gives them a lot of momentum heading into 2021.  Now they have a whopping 20 starters back and a veteran QB in Holton Ahlers who will be starting for a 3rd straight year.  It is head coach Mike Houston's 3rd season here and it is his best team by far.  Appalachian State took a step back in Shawn Clark's first season last year with a 9-3 record.  The 9 wins were all against bad teams, and they lost to the best teams they faced in Louisiana, Coastal Carolina and Marshall.  The Mountaineers will be starting a new QB this year in Duke transfer Chase Brice.  I just think it's asking a lot of them to win this game by double-digits in their opener against what will be a much improved ECU team from the AAC.  It is also on a neutral field in Charlotte and not a true home game for App State, which is big because they've had such a huge home-field advantage through the years.  Take East Carolina.

7* Ohio State/Alabama NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -8.5

The Key: The Alabama Crimson Tide are going to go down as one of the best teams in college football history.  They have an elite defense as always, giving up 19 PPG.  But their offense is a record-setting one that will continue to pile on the points against Ohio State.  The Crimson Tide average 48.2 PPG and 535 YPG this year as they have outscored their foes by 29.2 PPG on the season.  And they have let up in the 2nd half of most their games.  They won't let up against the Buckeyes after seeing what they did to Clemson last week.  That was an aberration as the Buckeyes managed just 22 points against Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship the week prior.  Clemson just allowed receivers to get behind them the entire game, which was a terrible strategy.  I trust Nick Saban to make the proper adjustments defensively.  And the weakness of this Ohio State defense is their secondary, which allowed 491 passing yards to Indiana and 400 more to Clemson.  That's bad news going up against Mac Jones, Devonta Smith and perhaps Jaylen Waddle returning.  The Buckeyes are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after yielding more than 280 passing yards in their last game.  The Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against Big Ten opponents.  The Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games off an ATS loss.  Take Alabama.

7* UNC/Texas A&M NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas A&M -7

The Key: Texas A&M just completed a dominant 8-1 season in which they proved they were one of the best teams in college football.  Their lone loss came to Alabama, which could be the best team in college football history.  And now the Aggies want to punctuate their season.  They don't have anyone really opting out for this one, and it's a senior-led team.  And they'll be up against a UNC team from a weak ACC conference that has almost all of their best players opting out and getting ready for the NFL draft.  Their top NFL prospect on defense and leading tackler Surratt is out.  They are without 2-time 1,000-yard receiver Brown, plus two 1,000-yard rushers in Carter and Williams.  QB Sam Howell might as well opt out as well with all the weapons he is missing.  It will go about as well for him as it did for Kyle Trask and Florida when they got blasted by Oklahoma earlier this week.  The Aggies are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 games as favorites.  Texas A&M is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 non-conference games.  Take Texas A&M.

7* Notre Dame/Alabama NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -19.5

The Key: The Notre Dame Fighting Irish keep coming up short in big games.  It happened against in the ACC Championship when they lost 10-34 to Clemson.  And that game was every bit the blowout it seemed as Clemson outgained Notre Dame 541 to 263.  And it will be more of the same here against Alabama.  This may be the best Alabama team we've ever seen as they are outscoring opponents by 30.2 PPG this season.  They definitely have their best offense of the Saban era at 49.7 PPG.  And the Crimson Tide have outscored their opponents 131-47 in their last 4 playoff semifinal games.  They beat Notre Dame 42-14 in their last playoff matchup.  Ian Book isn't good enough to keep up with Mac Jones and company.  The Fighting Irish have allowed over 200 rushing yards in 2 straight games coming in, so the Crimson Tide should be able to run the ball when they need to late to keep margin.  Alabama is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games off an ATS loss.  The Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  Take Alabama.

7* Ball State/San Jose State NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Ball State +10

The Key: The San Jose State Spartans were undervalued all season.  They went 7-0 SU & 6-0-1 ATS this year en route to winning the Mountain West title.  They beat Boise State in the Championship Game.  This team was an underdog in 4 of their 7 games this season and won them all outright.  But now the Spartans are getting respect heading into this bowl game due to those perfect records both SU and ATS.  And asking them to win by 10-plus points to cover this number against Ball State is asking too much.  I don't see the Spartans being too excited to face a MAC opponent in their bowl game as I think they feel they deserved a better bowl game.  They will be content with their season no matter what happens here.  Ball State has been a different team since losing a fluky game to Miami Ohio in the opener.  The Cardinals have gone 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS since while beating the best teams the MAC had to offer in Toledo, Central Michigan, Western Michigan and Buffalo.  Their outright 38-28 win over Buffalo as a 12-point dog showed what they are capable of.  And now the Cardinals will feel disrespected again as big dogs in their bowl game and will be playing with a chip on their shoulder.  No question the Cardinals have the better quarterback here, which is why they will never be out of this game.  Drew Plitt is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country.  He completed 65.8% of his passes for 1,947 yards with 16 TD and only 6 INT this season.  And this Ball State defense got better down the stretch, holding each of its final five opponents to 28 points or fewer.  This is a senior-laden Cardinals team that wants a bowl win desperately.  They haven't been to a bowl since 2013 and the program is 0-7 all-time in bowls.  They have a chance to make history here and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they win this game outright.  Take Ball State.

7* Florida/Oklahoma NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma -6.5

The Key: The Oklahoma Sooners have gone 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall en route to yet another Big 12 title.  And while the Sooners will be almost at full strength for this one, the Florida Gators will not be.  The writing is pretty much on the wall that the Gators don't care about this game after losing to Alabama in the SEC Championship.  They will be without each of their top 4 receivers with 3 opt outs and one due to COVID.  And they will be missing several other key players as well as they prepare for the NFL Draft.  The Sooners should make easy work of the Gators in this game even if Kyle Trask decides to play.  He won't have anyone to throw the ball to.  This Florida defense has allowed an average of 511.5 YPG and 44.5 PPG in back to back losses to LSU and Alabama.  The Sooners should be able to name their score.  Take Oklahoma.

7* Oklahoma State/Miami NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +1

The Key: The wrong team is favored in this matchup.  Miami is getting docked too much from a 62-26 loss to UNC in the season finale that put a bad taste in their mouths heading into the bowl season.  The Hurricanes still finished 8-2 with their other loss to Clemson.  Oklahoma State is getting too much respect for its 42-3 win over Baylor in the season finale.  That was a Baylor team coming off a tough loss to Oklahoma and they just failed to show up.  Remember the Cowboys went 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in their previous 5 games and had been very overrated.  They only beat Kansas State by 2 and Texas Tech by 6 for their 2 wins during that stretch and lost by 28 to Oklahoma.  The news that D'Eriq King announced he is coming back next year at QB for Miami has energized this team.  And they want to make amends for an upset loss to LA Tech in their bowl game last year.  They will be hungry for a win and we should see the best version of Miami because of it, which should be good enough to beat Oklahoma State.  The Hurricanes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  Take Miami.

7* NCAAF Bowl Game of the Year on Georgia State -3.5

The Key: Conference USA is 0-3 in bowl games this year through Wednesday and has been outscored by a combined 78 points in those 3 defeats.  Now it's Western Kentucky's turn to get blasted.  The Hilltoppers went 5-6 this year with their 5 wins coming against either FCS opponents or teams that won 3 games or fewer.  The 4 C-USA teams they beat have a combined 8-22 record this year.  WKU had the worst offense in all of C-USA this season at 18.8 PPG.  Appalachian State beat North Texas 56-28 and Georgia Southern beat LA Tech 38-3 in a pair of Sun Belt vs. C-USA matchups already this bowl season.  Georgia State only lost to App State 17-13 and beat Georgia Southern 30-24.  The Panthers average 32.7 PPG this year and will have a huge edge on offense in this matchup.  This should be another Sun Belt over C-USA blowout Saturday.  Take Georgia State.

7* Marshall/Buffalo NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -5

The Key: The Buffalo Bulls went undefeated in the regular season before falling to Ball State in the MAC Championship.  Their numbers have been dominant all year as they average 47.8 PPG and give up just 23.8 PPG.  And now they take on a team from Conference USA in Marshall.  Conference USA is 0-3 in bowl games this year and has been outscored by a combined 78 points in those 3 defeats.  That's bad news for a Marshall team that has averaged just 6.5 PPG in losing its last 2 games to Rice (20-0) and UAB (13-22).  Marshall went 7 straight quarters without scoring a single point over those 2 games before getting 13 points in garbage time in the 4th quarter against UAB.  Marshall QB Wells has completed just 45% of his passes over the last 2 games with 2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.  Marshall will be without leading rusher RB Knox, leading tackler LB Beckett and top offensive lineman G Ball as they all try and get ready for the NFL.  Buffalo is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games.  Marshall is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games off a loss.  Take Buffalo.

7* Hawaii/Houston NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Hawaii +9.5

The Key: The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors finished 4-4 this season with 4 losses against quality opponents, including an 8-point loss to Boise State.  They also upset Nevada, which just beat AAC member Tulane 38-27 in their bowl game.  And now they take on an AAC team in Houston that is just 3-4 on the season.  The Cougars didn't have any impressive wins this year as their 3 victories came against the bottom of the AAC with Navy, South Florida and Tulane.  And they lost 3 times by 17 points or more as well.  This feels like it will be a one-score game either way.  I like Hawaii QB Cordeiro who has totaled 18 touchdowns passing and rushing in 8 games this year.  He will make enough plays with his arm and feet to keep the Rainbow Warriors in this game for 4 quarters with a possible upset.  Take Hawaii.

7* UFC/BYU Boca Raton Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on BYU -6

The Key: The BYU Cougars (10-1) are the better team in this matchup with the UCF Knights (6-3).  They will be the more hungry team here too with UCF used to playing in much bigger bowls than the Boca Raton Bowl.  And BYU will pretty much have its full compliment of players for this game while UCF has some guys opting out, including leading receiver Marlon Williams who had 71 receptions for 1,039 yards and 10 touchdowns this year. Both teams have explosive offenses with UCF averaging 44.3 PPG and 6.8 YPP while BYU averages 43.0 PPG and 7.7 YPP.  But the difference in this game is defensively.  BYU only gives up 14.6 PPG, 308.9 YPG and 4.8 YPP.  UCF allows 31.4 PPG, 473.7 YPG and 5.9 YPP.   UCF is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games with a total of 70 or higher.  The Knights are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  UCF has losses to Cincinnati, Tulsa and Memphis this season.  BYU's only loss came to Coastal Carolina on only a few days' notice.  And that's an 11-0 Coastal Carolina team.  Take BYU.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Stanford +7

The Key: The Stanford Cardinal have won 3 straight and have all the momentum right now going into this final game of the season.  That includes their upset win over Washington as a double-digit underdog.  And now they are catching 7 points against a UCLA team that is 3-3 and coming off a 3rd heartbreaking loss this season.  This one was a 38-43 loss to USC in which they allowed a TD with 16 seconds left.  They were in control of the game the whole way, too.  I don't expect this young UCLA team to be able to handle that loss very well, and they likely won't even show up this week against Stanford.  The Cardinal are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 matchups with UCLA, including 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 matchups at UCLA.  Take Stanford.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Rutgers +7

The Key: Nebraska is just 2-5 and should not be favored this heavily over Rutgers in the season finale for both teams.  The Huskers are coming off an upset loss to Minnesota as 8-point favorites.  Rutgers has the momentum, coming off an upset win over Maryland last time out.  They also upset Purdue two games ago as a double-digit dog.  They have been competitive in most their games this year, too.  The Scarlet Knights now have a chance to win four Big Ten games for the first time since joining the conference in 2014.  "This Nebraska game is everything," head coach Greg Schiano said. "We're shooting for something that has not been done at Rutgers.  ANd, to do it in a situation where you play nine straight.  And, to do it in a situation where you didn't have a non-conference to work out any of the kings.  I think everybody in our program has a chance to do something special."  It's clear that the Scarlet Knights want this game more than Nebraska does.  Bets against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who have lost 3 of their last 4 games, in conference games are 70-38 ATS over the last 5 years.  The Huskers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as favorites.  The Scarlet Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as dogs.  Take Rutgers.

7* USC/UCLA Pac-12 *HEAVY HITTER* on UCLA +3.5

The Key: The UCLA Bruins are very close to being 5-0 this year.  They lost by 6 to Colorado and by 3 to Oregon, both on the road.  And they have wins over Cal by 24, Arizona by 17 and Arizona State by 7.  They are battle tested and ready to beat a team like USC.  The Trojans are 4-0 but could easily be 2-2.  They only beat Arizona State by 1 and Arizona by 4, the same two teams that UCLA beat by a combined 24 points.  The Bruins actually have the better stats too as they are outgaining teams by 0.8 yards per play while USC is outgaining teams by 0.5 yards per play.  The Trojans have also benefitted from being +6 in turnovers and forcing a whopping 12 of them in four games.  The Trojans are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games as road favorites.  USC is 16-35-2 ATS in its last 53 road games overall.  The Bruins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall . The home team is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 matchups.  Take UCLA.

7* Nevada/SJSU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Nevada +1.5

The Key: Nevada has been the best team in the Mountain West this year in my opinion.  I’ve cashed on them several times already, and I’ll take them again tonight as they should not be dogs to San Jose State.  The Wolf Pack are outgaining their opponents by 81.0 YPG this year while San Jose State is outgaining opponents by 72.0 YPG.  And I like the situation for Nevada better here.  The Wolf Pack get to stay in Nevada as this game will be played at Sam Boyd Stadium.  The Spartans had to fly back from Hawaii over the weekend and now have to travel to Nevada too on this short week.  The Wolf Pack will be the fresher, more prepared team for this one.  Nevada is 10-1 SU in the last 11 matchups.  The Wolf Pack are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as underdogs.  Take Nevada.

7* Pittsburgh/Georgia Tech ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Georgia Tech +7

The Key: Pitt just hasn’t been able to get margin on Georgia Tech in recent matchups.  Their largest win in the last 7 matchups came by 10 points last year against a very bad Georgia Tech team that was in the first season under Geoff Collins trying to switch from the triple-option to a pro style offense.  The previous largest win for Pitt was by 5 points in those 7 matchups.  The Yellow Jackets have improved tremendously this year even though they are just 3-6 on the season.  They have been competitive in a lot more games and have now outgained their last two opponents in Duke by 141 yards and NC State by 15 yards coming into this game.  They face a Pitt team still reeling from a 17-52 loss to Clemson.  And they will give the Panthers a run for their money tonight.  The Panthers just had DE Rashad Weaver and his 7.5 sacks opt out for the rest of the year, which will make life easier on this Georgia Tech offense.  Take Georgia Tech.

7* Big Ten Game of the Year on Illinois +13.5

The Key: Illinois QB Brandon Peters played against Nebraska in their last game for the first time since the opener because of COVID-19 issues.  He threw for 205 yards and a touchdown to improve to 7-5 in his career in games he’s able to complete.  The Fighting Illini tried four others at QB in his absence and it did not go well.  Peters makers all the difference for this team.  He led the Illini to a 41-23 win at Nebraska two weeks ago with 490 yards of total offense.  And now the Fighting Illini have had 2 weeks to get ready to face rival Iowa.  The Hawkeyes are starting to get too much respect from the books now as they have won 4 straight since an 0-2 start.  They barely held on to beat that same Nebraska team 26-20 as 12-point home favorites last week.  And now they are in their largest favorite role of the season here as 13.5-point favorites over Illinois.  It’s too much for an Iowa team that isn’t getting very good play at all from first-time starter Spencer Petras.  Iowa only beat Illinois 19-10 as 15-point home favorites last year.  The Illini rushed for 192 yards in that game, and they are 2nd in the Big Ten with 222.4 RYPG this season.  Illinois is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 conference games.  The Illini are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games off a win.  Take Illinois.

7* Louisiana/Appalachian State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Louisiana +3

The Key: Louisiana is revenge-minded Friday night.  The Rajin’ Cajuns have lost each of their last 7 matchups with Appalachian State, including 4 losses over the last 2 seasons while ending with losses in the Sun Belt Title game.  Louisiana played well enough to win in the rematch last year as they had 513 yards compared to 416 for App State, but lost 38-45.  But now App State has already been eliminated from Sun Belt title contention with their earlier loss to Coastal Carolina, so they won’t be as hungry here as they’d normally be.  I was impressed with Louisiana hanging 70 points on rival Louisiana-Monroe last week, clearly not looking ahead to this game.  And they had the previous week off due to Covid-19 concerns.  So they are still going to be very fresh here.  App State will be playing for a 7th consecutive week here.  Louisiana is 5-0 SU on the road this year with an outright upset of Iowa State, which is ranked 9th in the playoff rankings.  The Rajin’ Cajuns are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 road games against excellent rushing teams that average 230 or more RYPG.  The Mountaineers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Take Louisiana.

7* LA Tech/North Texas C-USA *HEAVY HITTER* on LA Tech ML +100

The Key: LA Tech went through a gauntlet of a schedule before having the last month off due to Covid-19 problems.  They lost to Marshall by 18, UTSA by 1 and upset UAB by 3 as 12.5-point dogs.  They were improving with each game.  And now they will be ready to play a game for the first time in a month here.  That’s the only reason they aren’t favored is because they have been off for so long.  But North Texas has no business being favored in this game.  They are coming off a 17-49 loos to UTSA in which they gave up 624 total yards to the Roadrunners.  And their defense has been atrocious all season.  The Mean Green give up 41.0 PPG, 535 YPG and 7.0 YPP.  It’s hard to trust a team that cannot stop the run, and the Mean Green yield 244 RYPG and 5.8 YPC.  LA Tech is 6-0 ATS against good passing teams that average 250 PYPG or more over the last 3 years.  North Texas is 0-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 years.  The Mean Green are 0-8 ATS against teams that allow 250 PYPG or more over the last 3 years. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 matchups and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 matchups at North Texas.  Take Louisiana Tech.

7* NCAAF Game of the Year on Louisiana-Monroe +28.5

The Key: Louisiana-Lafayette had 33 players on coronavirus protocol last week and had their game cancelled.  Head coach Billy Napier came down with it as well and hasn’t been able to be at practice all week.  This team should not be laying 28.5 points in a rivalry game against Louisiana-Monroe.  They haven’t won a single game by more than 28 points this year, and Monroe has only 2 losses by more than 25 points this year.  6 of the last 7 matchups were decided by a single score, including only a 31-30 win by Louisiana last year as a 20.5-point favorite.  And Louisiana has their huge game with Appalachian State on deck next week so this just screams flat spot for them this week.  The dog is 16-3-1 ATS in the last 20 matchups.  Take Louisiana-Monroe.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Oregon State +14

The Key: The Oregon State Beavers are a team on the rise in the Pac-12.  They went 5-7 last year but had 3 losses by 3 points or fewer.  And this year they brought back 14 starters.  They are just 1-2, but the losses came by 10 points to Washington State and only by 6 to Washington.  They beat Cal last week and believe they are good enough to beat Oregon.  I like the price here on Oregon State catching 14 points considering they only lost by 14 to a much better Oregon team last year.  This Oregon team is 3-0 but not as good as last year.  They barely got by UCLA 38-35 last week as 18.5-point favorites and were outgained by the Bruins in the win.  The Beavers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as underdogs.  The Beavers are 7-0 in their last 7 home games following a home game.  Take Oregon State.

7* NCAAF Upset Game of the Year on Nevada ML +105

The Key: I’ve backed Nevada 3 times already this season and am 3-0 with them.  Fortunately I stayed off them last time out when they didn’t cover against New Mexico.  But I’m back on them again this week at a great price when they should not be home underdogs to San Diego State.  The Wolf Pack are 4-0 this season and about to improve to 5-0 here against a SDSU team that has a bad loss to San Jose State already, and 3 easy wins over terrible teams in UNL, Utah Stat and Hawaii.  This is an experience Nevada team that returned 17 starters this year and Jay Norvell has coached them up well.  The Wolf Pack are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as home underdogs.  They have won their last 2 meetings with San Diego State outright as underdogs and will do it for a 3rd straight year here.  Take Nevada.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on UMass +33.5

The Key: Florida Atlantic can’t be laying 33.5 points to anyone with their putrid offense.  The Owls are scoring just 20.4 PPG and averaging 323 YPG this year.  UMass is not good, but this will be their easiest opponent they have faced this year after road losses to Georgia Southern and Marshall.  And they’ve had 2 weeks to get ready for Florida Atlantic while the Owls played FIU last week.  It’s an experienced UMass team that returned 14 starters this year while FAU only returned 9 starters and has a new head coach in Willie Taggart, who has been a disaster as a coach in recent years.  The Owls are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 against a team with a losing record.  The Owls are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Friday games.  Take UMass.

7* WMU/CMU MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Central Michigan -1.5

The Key: Central Michigan made the MAC Championship Game in Jim McElwain’s first season on the job last year.  He is doing big things here for the Chippewas already.  They are off to a 2-0 start this season with a 30-27 win over Ohio as 2.5-point home dogs and a 40-10 blowout of Northern Illinois as 6-point road favorites.  The defense has been very good in allowing just 294.5 YPG and they are outgaining those two opponents by 135.5 YPG.  Western Michigan was fortunate to beat Toledo last week after trailing by 10 with just under 3 minutes left and getting 2 TD’s in the final minutes after an onside kick to win 41-38.  Even after 2 TD drives late they were still outgained by 64 yards by Toledo for the game.  Last year Central Michigan outgained Western Michigan on the road but lost 15-31 in a misleading final after committing 3 turnovers.  The Chippewas get revenge at home this time around.  The Broncos are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as underdog.  Western Michigan is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games off an ATS win.  The Broncos are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games.  Central Michigan is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 home games.  The Chippewas are 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 Wednesday games.  The favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 matchups.  Take Central Michigan.

7* Akron/Kent State MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Akron +26

The Key: The Akron Zips really impressed me last week in their 10-24 loss at Ohio as 27-point dogs.  This was a 7-point game late and they were in it for 4 quarters.  They gained 435 yards on offense and only gave up 307 yards on defense and probably deserved to win outright.  Now they are catching 26 points from Kent State tonight.  Kent State only beat Eastern Michigan by 4 and then crushed the worst team in the MAC in Bowling Green by 38 last week.  That win over Bowling Green has the Golden Flashes getting too much respect from oddsmakers in this matchup.  Kent State is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games as a home favorite.  The underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 matchups.  Take Akron.

7* Big 12 Game of the Month on West Virginia -3

The Key: West Virginia is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are just 4-3 this season but could easily be 7-0.  Their stats are that of a 6-1 team or better.  They are outgaining teams by 179 YPG this season and 1.2 YPP.  They had a win taken away from them last week by the refs at Texas as they refused to call a pass interference in the end zone on 4th down when they were going in for the game winning score.  Look for the Mountaineers to come back with a chip on their shoulder this week and make easy work of TCU.  The Horned Frogs rely heavily on their rushing game to move the football.  West Virginia only gives up 109 RYPG and 3.3 YPR this year.  They’ll stop the run with their elite defense and score enough points on this TCU defense to win this game with room to spare.  The Mountaineers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games off a game where they forced no turnovers.  The Mountaineers are 4-0 at home this year and winning by 25.0 PPG.  Take West Virginia.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on East Carolina +28

The Key: East Carolina is better than its 1-5 record would suggest.  They had a win against Tulsa stolen from them by the refs.  And they haven’t lost by more than 23 points this year.  That 23-point loss came to UCF, a team that just runs at a frantic pace and puts up a lot of points on everyone.  Last year ECU only lost 43-46 at home to Cincinnati as a 24.5-point underdog.  The Pirates put up over 600 yards of offense in that defeat thanks to 535 passing yards and 5 total touchdowns from QB Holton Ahlers, who is back leading this ECU offense this season and having another great year.  Cincinnati has covered 3 in a row in wins over SMU, Houston and Memphis and now the price is too steep on them, especially since they are ranked in the Top 10 right now and getting 4-team playoff hype.  And they play UCF next week so could easily be looking ahead to that game and buying into the hype.  This game will be a lot closer than the oddsmakers expect.  Plus the Pirates are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as road dogs.  Take East Carolina.

7* Toledo/Western Michigan MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Western Michigan -2.5

The Key: The Western Michigan Broncos got in 8 spring practices and started off the season like gangbusters with their 58-13 throttling of Akron last week.  They outgained the Zips by 4.3 YPP in that game.  Toledo also had a nice win last week in a 38-3 victory over Bowling Green.  But head coach Jason Candle is struggling the last 2 seasons at Toledo with a combined 13-12 record.  The Rockets are on the decline and the Broncos have a great chance to beat them after losing the last 2 meetings.  Western Michigan went 6-0 at home last year, while Toledo is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 road games.  I like that combination here and the price with the Broncos as only 2.5-point home favorites.  Take Western Michigan.

7* Miami/Buffalo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -9.5

The Key: The Buffalo Bulls are loaded with 15 returning starters and the most talent in the MAC this season.  They are the favorites to win the conference.  They have everyone back on offense except for a couple offensive linemen from a unit that average 31.5 PPG last year.  That have 7 starters back on D from a unit that only gave up 21.3 PPG.  And they had 9 spring practices to boot.  Buffalo outgained Northern Illinois by 2.0 YPP in the opener and won 49-30 after leading 49-16.  Miami was outgained by 1.1 YPP by Ball State in the opener and was lucky to win 38-31.  Miami was also lucky to beat Buffalo last year despite getting outgained by 133 yards because they won the turnover battle 4-0.  They won’t be so fortunate in 2020 as Buffalo makes a statement here and avenges that defeat.  The Redhawks could be without starting QB Gabbert and they will be without their top 2 rushers from last year in Bester and Shelton.  The Bulls have won 7 of their last 8 games all by 19 points or more and are 7-1 ATS over that span.  Take Buffalo.

7* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Year on Liberty +15

The Key: The Liberty Flames are undefeated this season which includes a 17-point road win over Syracuse from the ACC.  This will be their toughest game yet, but they will be up to the task catching 15 points against the Virginia Tech Hokies.  Liberty is averaging 40 PPG this year and giving up only 24 PPG and 303 YPG.  They are loaded on offense behind former Auburn QB Malik Willis.  They are outgaining their opponents by 191 YPG this year.  Virginia Tech is giving up 31 PPG and 459 YPG this year.  They also give up 195 rushing yards per game, which is going to be a problem for them against a Liberty team that rushed for 257 yards per game.  Take Liberty.

7* Miami/NC State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on OVER 58.5

The Key: The OVER is 5-1 in NC State games this season.  The Wolfpack are built for high scoring games with a very good offense and a terrible defense.  They are giving up 34.2 PPG this year and have allowed 40-plus 3 times in 6 games.  They are scoring 31.5 PPG and even though they recently lost starting QB Devin Leary, they still managed to pass for 358 yards against UNC last time out.  Miami now has an elite offense this year thanks to Houston transfer D’Eriq King.  The Hurricanes have scored 31 or more points in 4 of their 6 games this year and will have no problem getting to 40-plus in this one.  The OVER is 3-0-1 in Hurricanes last 4 games as road favorites.  The OVER is 5-0 in Wolfpack last 5 games as an underdog.  Take the OVER.

7* Buffalo/NIU MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -13

The Key: The Buffalo Bulls are loaded with 15 returning starters and the most talent in the MAC this season.  They should be the favorites to win the conference.  They have everyone back on offense except a couple offensive linemen from a unit that averaged 31.5 PPG last year.  They have 7 starters back on D from a unit that only gave up 21.3 PPG.  And then they got in 9 spring practices to boot.  Northern Illinois looks like one of the worst teams in the MAC with all of the transfers they lost and now having just 10 starters back or fewer.  They are likely to start 10 underclassmen and are lacking talent.  Buffalo went 7-1 ATS over its final 8 games last year with all 6 of its wins during that stretch coming by 19 points or more.  Take Buffalo.

7* SEC Game of the Month on Auburn +3.5

The Key: LSU is getting too much respect as a road favorite here after beating South Carolina 52-24 last week.  Remember, this is the same team that lost 34-44 to Mississippi State as a 14.5-point favorite and 41-45 to Missouri as a 14-point favorite.  Their schedule has been extremely easy and they sit at just 2-2.  Freshman QB TJ Finley played well against South Carolina in place of Myles Brennan, who is doubtful to play this week.  But now Finley will be making his first SEC road start in a very tough place to play at Auburn.  Auburn has some great stats outside of their loss to Georgia.  They have outgained each of their last 3 opponents and outgained South Carolina by 179 yards but found a way to lose. LSU only outgained South Carolina by 138 yards and won by 28.  So those misleading final scores are providing us with some line value here on Auburn catching points at home.  Auburn is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games as a home underdog.  The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 matchups.  Auburn wants revenge from a 3-point loss last year and a 1-point loss to LSU in 2018.  Take Auburn.

7* Mountain West Game of the Month on Nevada +4.5

The Key: Nevada should not be a home dog to Wyoming in the Mountain West opener for both teams.  The Wolf Pack are a real contender in the MWC and my pick to win the West division this year.  They have 17 starters back and enter Year 4 under Jay Norvell, who has gotten them to a bowl game in each of his last 2 seasons.  They have a loaded offense with 10 starters back and should make big strides on that side of the ball.  And Norvell finally has a big defensive line with two DE over 270 pounds and two DT over 300 pounds.  It should be his best defense yet.  Wyoming is a tough team to trust to lay points because they never have a very good offense.  They do have a good defense year in and year out, but they will take a step back this year with only 5 starters back and the loss of their top 3 tacklers on D.  The Wolf Pack are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 home games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as home dogs.  Take Nevada.

7* Illinois/Wisconsin NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Wisconsin -18.5

The Key: The Wisconsin Badgers have had this game circled all offseason.  They lost 23-24 as 29-point favorites at Illinois last year.  Now they are only 18.5-point home favorites in the rematch, a 10.5-point adjustment.  Oddsmakers are putting too much thought into the injury to Wisconsin QB Jack Coan.  It’s a blessing in disguise as redshirt freshman Graham Mertz is about as exciting of a recruit as the Badgers have ever had.  He should be their best QB since Russell Wilson was in Madison.  Wisconsin rebounded from that loss to Illinois to win the West and gave Ohio State a run for its money in the Big Ten Title game.  Now the Badgers have 15 starters back and one of the best defenses in the country with 9 starters back from a unit that gave up 16.9 PPG last year.  Illinois made a bowl game for the first time since 2014 last year.  But they lost their final 3 games, including a 19-point home loss to a bad Northwestern team and a 15-point loss to a bad Cal team in the bowl.  Wisconsin has won 7 straight home meetings with Illinois by an average of 19.1 PPG.  The last 2 in Madison have resulted in Badgers wins by 29 and 45 points.  Take Wisconsin.

7* SEC Game of the Year on South Carolina +3.5

The Key: South Carolina played both Tennessee and Florida tough in 2 losses.  They were only outgained by a combined 34 yards by those two teams.  Then they blitzed Vanderbilt 41-7 last week.  And now they will take down Auburn, who are fortunate to be 2-1 instead of 0-3.  The Tigers were outgained by 60 yards by Kentucky and needed a last-second field goal to beat terrible Arkansas.  They also lost by 21 to Georgia.  The Gamecocks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games off a win by 21 points or more against an SEC opponent.  Take South Carolina.

7* SMU/Tulane NCAAF Friday Night Lights on SMU -6

The Key: SMU is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this year and one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country.  They beat the best Group of 5 team last year in Memphis 30-27 last time out and now have had 2 weeks to get ready for Tulane.  The Green Wave are 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS and fortunate to be 2-2.  They had to come back from a 24-7 deficit to beat lowly South Alabama 27-24 in their opener.  Then they lost to a bad Navy team 24-27 before beating terrible Southern Miss.  They lost 31-49 last week to Houston despite being +5 in turnovers.  They were outgained 211 to 476 by the Cougars in that defeat.  QB play gives SMU a huge edge here.  Former Texas transfer Shane Buechele is in the 2nd season in Sonny Dykes’ system.  He is completing 69.1% of his passes for 1,326 yards with 10 touchdowns against only 2 interceptions.  Tulane has one of the worst QB situations in college football as both Keon Howard and Michael Pratt have been terrible.  The Green Wave are completing just 43.6% of their passes for 146 yards per game and 5.8 per attempt on the year.  And they lost their top 2 running backs in Tyjae Spears and Corey Dauphine to season-ending injuries, so their offense is in a world of hurt right now.  SMU is going to get its points, and I just don’t think Tulane can keep up with their suspect offense. Take SMU.

7* Big 12 Game of the Month on Kansas State +9

The Key: The Kansas State Wildcats are now 2-0 in Big 12 play.  They upset Oklahoma on the road as 28-point dogs and handled their business in a 31-21 win over Texas Tech at home.  Now the Wildcats continue to lack the respect they deserve as 9-point dogs at TCU.  The Horned Frogs are getting respect because they upset Texas on the road.  But Texas trailed Texas Tech by 15 points with under 3 minutes left in regulation, so they aren’t very good.  Kansas State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games as road dogs.  The dog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  The Horned Frogs are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games off an upset win as a road dog.  The Wildcats are 41-20-1 ATS in their last 62 games as underdogs.  Take Kansas State.

7* SEC Game of the Month on Vanderbilt +21

The Key: Vanderbilt showed they are going to have one of the best defenses in the SEC when they only lost 12-17 to Texas A&M as a 31.5-point dog last week.  They returned all 11 starters on D, and Pro Football Focus actually graded their D-Line as the best unit in the country after that performance.  LSU’s defense was shredded for 44 points and 623 passing yards in their upset loss to Mississippi State last week.  This is an LSU team that lost 15 players to the NFL in the offseason.  That’s simply irreplaceable.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  The Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a losing record.  Take Vanderbilt.

7* ACC Game of the Month on Virginia -4

The Key: Virginia has 15 starters back from a team that beat Duke 48-14 last year.  Duke lost by 14 to Notre Dame and by 20 to Boston College to start the year, so it’s clear the Blue Devils aren’t any better than they were last season.  This is a very short number for the defending Coastal Division champs to be laying to open their season.  Take Virginia.

7* Miami/Louisville ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Louisville -2.5

The Key: The Louisville Cardinals have 16 starters back from a team that went 8-5 last year in Scott Satterfield’s first season coming over from Appalachian State.  They are loaded everywhere and it showed last week as they outgained Western Kentucky by 239 yards and put up 487 yards of offense.  They will now take down Miami and avenge a 27-52 loss at Miami last year.  But they outgained Miami by 47 yards in that game and never should have lost by 25.  They lost the turnover battle 3-0 which proved to be the difference.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 matchups.  The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.  The Hurricanes are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games.  Take Louisville.

7* Saturday NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on South Alabama +11

The Key: This South Alabama team looks very promising with the way they closed out last season and now have 15 starters back.  They were competitive in every game when freshman Desmond Trotter took the reigns at quarterback.  They went toe-to-toe with Louisiana in a 27-37 loss and beat Arkansas State 34-30.  Those were 2 of the best teams in the Sun Belt last year.  Trotter has accuracy and mobility, plus smart decision making as he threw 8 touchdowns against only 2 interceptions last year.  He picked up right where he left off in the opener, leading South Alabama to a 32-21 upset win over Southern Miss as 15-point dogs.  Trotter threw for 299 yards and 2 TD while also rushing for 41 yards while leading South Alabama to 526 total yards in the win.  Tulane only has 12 starters back this year and loses it QB, top 2 receivers and top 2 RB’s from last year.  This is another game that the Jaguars have a chance to win outright, especially with a game under their belts already.  Take South Alabama.

7* Clemson/LSU NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on LSU -5 

The Key: The LSU Tigers have an unstoppable offense and one of the best offenses we’ve ever seen in college football.  And their defense has been lights out down the stretch.  Clemson was fortunate to beat Ohio State and has played a much easier schedule than LSU this year.  The Tigers will have the home field edge with this game being played in New Orleans.  They cap off a tremendous season with a win and cover over Clemson Monday.  Take LSU. 

7* Miami (OH)/Lafayette Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami Ohio +14 

The Key: The Miami Ohio Redhawks are playing in just their 2nd bowl game in the last 9 years.  They only lost 16-17 to SEC power Mississippi State as 14-point dogs in their last bowl game in 2016.  And Chuck Martin really thrives in the role of the dog as the coach of Miami Ohio.  They came out of nowhere to win the MAC after upsetting Central Michigan in Detroit.  And Martin is 9-1 ATS off an upset win as a dog as the coach of Miami.  Martin is 32-17 ATS as a dog as the coach of Miami overall.  Take Miami. 

7* Tennessee/Indiana Gator Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Tennessee -3 

The Key: There’s a huge difference in this game that should have Tennessee favored by more than 3 over Indiana.  The Vols have gone 4-5 against teams that are 6-6 or better this season.  The Hoosiers have gone 0-4 against teams that are 6-6 or better.  So as you can see, Tennessee played a very tough schedule compared to Indiana and actually beat 4 teams that were bowl eligible while Indiana went 0-4 against those teams.  The Vols are 21-4 ATS in their last 25 road games off 2 consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers.  The Vols are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall with that one loss coming on the road at Alabama.  Take Tennessee. 

7* Baylor/Georgia Sugar Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Georgia -4 

The Key: This line has dropped enough to where there’s value on Georgia laying this small number.  They have the talent edge.  And I think they will learn from last year’s loss to Texas where they were upset as 13.5-point favorites in the Sugar Bowl.  They didn’t want to be playing in that game last year.  I think the fact that they were blown out by LSU in the SEC Championship makes it easier for them to accept their fate in the Sugar Bowl this year.  Baylor went to OT against Oklahoma with a chance to make the 4-team playoff.  I think that loss is a loss harder to get over than Georgia’s loss to LSU.  And we saw Oklahoma lose by 35 points and give up 7 straight touchdowns to open the game against LSU last week.  The Big 12 has not looked good with a 1-4 record in bowls thus far.  Georgia is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 neutral site games and 8-1 ATS in its last 9 neutral site games as a favorite.  Georgia is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games off an ATS loss.  This will feel like a home game for the Bulldogs being played in SEC country in New Orleans.  Take Georgia. 

7* Georgia State/Wyoming Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Wyoming -7 

The Key: The difference between these 2 teams defensively is about as big a difference as you will see in bowl season.  Wyoming only gives up 17.8 PPG and Georgia State gives up 36.1 PPG.  I usually like to back the better defensive team in bowl games.  Wyoming is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games against Sun Bel Teams.  Georgia State hasn’t been the same since QB Dan Ellington tore his ACL.  Give him credit for playing through it, but he hasn’t been the same dual threat QB he was before the injury.  They lost 3 of their last 4 games by an average of 23.7 PPG.  Their only win was at home against South Alabama.  Georgia State is 2-8-2 ATS in its last 12 games against a team with a winning record.  Take Wyoming. 

7* WMU/WKU Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Western Michigan +3.5 

The Key: The Western Michigan Broncos are hungry for a bowl win after losing 4 of their last 5 bowl games.  But keep in mind they played a tough bowl schedule losing to the likes of Wisconsin, BYU, Purdue and Air Force.  The only bowl game they won during this stretch was against Middle Tennessee 45-31, which is a fellow Conference USA team to Western Kentucky.  I’ll side with WMU’s offense, which averages 34.2 PPG and 457 YPG this year.  WKU only puts up 25.6 PPG and struggles to get margin due to their poor offense.  I like the price we are getting with the Broncos are 3.5-point dogs.  The Hilltoppers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite.  The Broncos are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games off an ATS loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games off a SU loss.  Take Western Michigan. 

7* Bowl Total of the Year on Clemson/Ohio State UNDER 63.5 

The Key: Clemson and Ohio State have arguably the 2 best defenses in the country.  Ohio State gives up 12.5 PPG while Clemson allows 10.6 PPG this year.  There’s no way this total should be set this high with these 2 defenses.  Ohio State and Clemson have great offensive numbers, but they have done most of their damage against bad defenses, especially in Clemson’s case.  Texas A&M held Clemson to 24 points and Ohio State can do the same.  Penn State and Wisconsin held Ohio State to 38 or fewer points in all 3 of those games.  Clemson can hold Ohio State below 30.  Clemson is 6-0 UNDER with 2 or more weeks rest over the last 3 years and we’re only seeing 40.9 PPG in this situation.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Clemson’s last 4 semifinal playoff games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Buckeyes last 5 bowl games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Buckeyes last 6 games against a team with a winning record.  Take the UNDER.

7* Michigan State/Wake Forest Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Michigan State -3.5 

The Key: It could be Mark Dantonio’s final game at Michigan State.  The Spartans won their final 2 games to make a bowl game, so they clearly want to be here.  Michigan State played a much tougher schedule than Wake Forest with all 6 losses coming to bowl teams.  Their schedule ranked 34th while Wake played the 69th schedule.  Wake has lost 3 of its last 4 games and a big part of that is losing WR Sage Surratt to injury.  Surratt had 66 receptions for 1,001 yards and 11 touchdowns in 9 games this year.  Michigan State will win the battle of the line of scrimmage on both sides and that will be key to victory.  Big Ten teams are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS against ACC teams in the Pinstripe Bowl.  Bets on teams who have been beaten by the spread by 49 or more points in their last 5 games in December games are 44-18 ATS since 1992.  Take Michigan State. 

7* Eastern Michigan/Pitt Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Eastern Michigan +13 

The Key: The Pitt Panthers are 7-5 this year, but all 7 wins have come by 10 points or less. That’s a 12-0 angle supporting the Eastern Michigan Eagles with this 13-point spread.  Pitt doesn’t have a good enough offense to put away Eastern Michigan.  The Panthers are scoring just 20.1 PPG on the season and 18.0 PPG in road games.  I’d argue EMU has the better offense.  The Eagles are scoring 29.1 PPG and they throw for 280 yards per game as QB Mike Glass is certainly an underrated signal caller.  The Eagles are 21-7 ATS in their lsat 28 games as an underdog.  Eastern Michigan is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 non-conference games.  Take Eastern Michigan. 

7* BYU/Hawaii Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on BYU -2 

The Key: BYU played a tougher schedule than Hawaii and I trust them more to win this game from what I’ve seen from both teams.  BYU went 2-2 against Top 30 teams with wins over USC and Boise State, while Hawaii went 0-3 against Top 30 teams.  BYU also beat Tennessee on the road and thumped Utah State 42-14 on the road.  That’s a Utah State team that is probably just as good as Hawaii in the Mountain West.  Hawaii is 1-9 ATS off a road loss over the last 3 years.  Nick Rolovich is 0-7 ATS off a conference road loss as the coach of Hawaii.  Take BYU. 

7* Kent State/Utah State ESPN 2 Friday Night Lights on Kent State +7 

The Key: Teams that had 3 or fewer wins the previous season and made a bowl game have gone 16-2 ATS in their bowl games over the last 3 years.  Kent State is a qualifier.  The Golden Flashes overcame the odds and pulled out 3 straight upsets to close the season to get to 6-6.  They obviously want to be here.  I don’t think the same can be said for Utah State, which won 11 games last year and dropped to 7 wins this year.  6-6 teams in general have gone 60% ATS since 2000 in bowls and 6-6 teams off a win as an underdog have gone 70% ATS since 2000.  Take Kent State. 

7* Cincinnati/Memphis AAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Cincinnati +9.5 

The Key: The Cincinnati Bearcats and Memphis Tigers are in rare air here.  It’s only the 4th time in the playoff era that teams square off in the final week of the regular season and again in the conference championship game.  The underdogs in this situation have gone 3-0 ATS in the previous 3 tries.  And I expect that trend to continue here as Cincinnati keeps it close and covers this 9.5-point spread.  Cincinnati only lost 24-34 in their first meeting at Memphis last week.  But that game was closer than the final score as the Bearcats lost the turnover battle 3-1.  And now after playing a backup QB last week, the Bearcats get their starter back this week in Desmond Ridder.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 December games.  Take Cincinnati. 

7* Oregon/Utah NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Oregon +7 

The Key: This number has been adjusted too much in Utah’s favor based on the fact that they need to win to get into the four-team playoff.  They haven’t been in very many of these National TV games this season, and it’s a lot of pressure on them.  There is zero pressure on Oregon because they will likely be going to the Rose Bowl win or lose.  I’ll side with the loose, free-rolling Ducks in this game tonight catching a touchdown.  Oregon is 44-14 ATS in its lsat 58 games after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game.  This is an elite Oregon defense and the best defense that Utah has faced yet.  It’s going to be an ugly, low-scoring game with some bad weather, which favors the underdog.  The Ducks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games off an ATS loss.  Take Oregon. 

7* NCAA Football Game of the Year on Florida Atlantic -9 

The Key: The FAU Owls would clinch Conference USA’s East division with a win Saturday over Southern Miss.  They will be hungry and will show up on Senior Day.  I question Southern Miss’ motivation after losing 10-28 at home to Western Kentucky last week.  Losing that game meant they don’t control their own destiny now.  They lost to LA Tech and LA Tech hosts UTSA as a 20.5-point favorite this week.  There’s almost zero chance for the Golden Eagles to win the West Division now.  I think they suffer a hangover from that loss.  Plus, the Golden Eagles lost QB Jack Abraham to a leg injury in that game against Western Kentucky and he’s highly questionable to return this week.  He means everything to their team.  FAU is 9-1 ATS against teams that complete 62% or more of their passes over the last 3 years.  Take Florida Atlantic. 

7* Sun Belt Game of the Year on South Alabama +11 

The Key: Arkansas State has been eliminated from Sun Belt title contention.  And they have won a lot of close games here of late that has them getting too much respect from the books.  Their last 3 wins have come by 1, 5 and 7 points.  And I think this game against South Alabama goes down to the wire.  South Alabama only lost by 10 at home to LA-Lafayette 2 weeks ago, which is the best team in the Sun Belt alongside Appalachian State.  They only lost by 2 to Texas State and by 13 to Georgia State in their last 2 road games.  They are back home here where they have been very competitive with a 3-point loss to Georgia Southern as 10-point dogs as well.  South Alabama upset Arkansas State 24-19 as 13-point home dogs 2 years ago.  The Jaguars will look at this game as their Super Bowl on Senior Day.  The Jaguars are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning record.  The Red Wolves are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win.  Take South Alabama. 

7* Western Michigan/NIU MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Western Michigan -8.5 

The Key: I like the situation for Western Michigan tonight.  The Broncos need a win to clinch a trip to the MAC title game.  They are coming off a bye week, so they’ve had 2 full weeks to get ready for Northern Illinois.  And they’re facing an NIU team that just suffered their 7th loss last Thursday in a 17-45 setback to Eastern Michigan at home.  They won’t be going to a bowl game now, and they won’t be very hungry tonight because of it.  NIU is 0-6 ATS in home games against good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last 3 years.  The Huskies are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games against a team with a winning record.  Take Western Michigan.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Month on UCLA +14 

The Key: UCLA is playing well in the 2nd half of the season once again this year.  The Bruins have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall with 3 double-digit wins over Stanford, ASU and Colorado.  They did lose badly to Utah on the road last week, but that was due to committing 5 turnovers and not cashing in any red zone trips, and they had a bunch of them.  They will be able to move the ball much more effectively and score points on this soft USC defense.  UCLA has played USC tough the last 2 years, upsetting the Trojans as 3-point home dogs last year and only losing by 5 as nearly identical 14.5-point dogs in 2017.  USC is 2-10 ATS off 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 years.  Take UCLA. 

7* Minnesota/Iowa Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota +3 

The Key: The Minnesota Golden Gophers won’t have a letdown off their biggest win perhaps in program history over Penn State.  There is a lot more on the line than a win over Penn State.  Minnesota is basically assured of a Big Ten West title if they beat Iowa this week.  And they have a chance to make the four-team playoff if they go undefeated.  So everyone that talks about how the Gophers are going to have a letdown is dead wrong.  PJ Fleck went on the playoff show on Tuesday and said they hadn’t won at Kinnick Stadium since 1999, which was Kirk Ferentz’s first season with the Hawkeyes.  That’s 20 years.  If that’s not enough motivation, I don’t know what is.  Of course, Minnesota has a better team this year than they’ve had in the last 20 years, so that stat is pretty irrelevant.  The Gophers were never 9-0 going into the Iowa game before.  I realize the Gophers struggled in non-conference play to put away teams, but no team in the country has improved as much as them in conference play.  Not only are the Gophers winning, they are dominating.  They are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in conference play winning by 23.2 PPG.  The Penn State game was the only one decided by less than 7 points, and they were up 24-10 in that game before the Nittany Lions expectedly made a little comeback.  The Gophers never trailed in that game so it wasn’t a fluke.  PJ Fleck is clearly one of the best head coaches in the country with leading Western Michigan to an unbeaten season until the narrow bowl loss to Wisconsin.  And now he’s taken Minnesota to 9-0.  He knows what buttons to push, and there’s plenty for him to push this week, including the underdog and disrespect cards.  Take Minnesota. 

7* Fresno State/SDSU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on San Diego State -1 

The Key: The San Diego State Aztecs are 7-2 this season and 4-2 in conference play.  That 4-2 record has them in first place alone in the West Division.  They knew they could afford to lose to Nevada last week and that’s exactly what happened.  Now the Aztecs have zero margin for error, and they know they need to handle their business tonight at home against Fresno State.  This is a Fresno State team that is grossly overrated this season due to their ATS success the past 2 seasons.  But they had to replace nearly their entire team this year.  This inexperienced squad has gone 4-5 SU & 3-5-1 ATS this year as a result.  The Bulldogs are once again getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight in basically a pick ‘em game at SDSU.  Fresno State is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 road games after allowing 525 or more yards last game.  The Bulldogs have allowed 500-plus yards in 3 straight games now to Colorado State, Hawaii and Utah State.  The Aztecs will have one of their best offensive performances of the season tonight against this soft Fresno defense.  And the Aztecs once again have one of the best defenses in the country.  They give up just 14.4 PPG and 277 YPG on the season.  Fresno allows 32.4 PPG this year.  The Aztecs are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 against a team with a losing record.  Take San Diego State. 

7* Bowling Green/Miami Ohio MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Bowling Green +17.5 

The Key: Bowling Green is still alive for a bowl game and is certainly improved this year.  This is their last stand as 17.5-point dogs to Miami Ohio.  The Falcons are coming off a 35-6 win over Akron and have had 10 days off since that game.  Miami Ohio is only on normal rest after playing and upsetting Ohio 24-21 on the road last Wednesday.  It’s definitely a letdown spot for the Redhawks off that huge win that puts them in the driver’s seat to win their division in the MAC.  Miami hasn’t beaten Bowling Green by more than 15 points in any of the last 9 meetings, which makes for a 9-0 angle backing the Falcons.  The Falcons won 37-29 as 17-point dogs their last trip to Miami in 2017.  Take Bowling Green. 

7* Western Michigan/Ohio MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Ohio +1 

The Key: Western Michigan has already clinched a bowl game at 6-4 on the season.  Ohio is 4-5 on the season and really needs a win here to get to a bowl.  Adding to the motivation for the Bobcats is that this is Senior Night and their final home game.  Their best player in QB Nathan Rourke is a senior, and he has meant so much to this program that you know these players want to get him one final home win.  Western Michigan is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS on the road this year.  The Broncos should not be favored in this matchup.  The Broncos are 1-10 ATS after playing a home game over the last 2 years.  Western Michigan is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 road games.  The Bobcats are 37-18 ATS in their last 55 against a team with a winning record.  Take Ohio. 

7* LSU/Alabama SEC Total of the Year on UNDER 64 

The Key: No analysis this weekend.  On vacation. 

7* Miami/Florida State ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Florida State -3 

The Key: Both Miami and Florida State are 4-4 this season and in the midst of disappointing years.  However, the biggest difference is that Florida State (32nd) has played the tougher schedule than Miami (63rd).  And Florida State looks like a much better team with Alex Hornibrook as their starter.  Hornibrook has been a lot better than James Blackman.  Hornibrook is completing 68.4% of his passes averaging 8.7 YPA and has 6 touchdowns against only one interception.  Miami 17-12 win over Central Michigan at home as 30.5-point favorites showed everything you need to know about this team.  They went on to get upset by VA Tech at home as 14-point favorites the next week.  They were lucky to beat both Virginia and Pitt as they were outgained in both of those contests.  And they were also upset by Georgia Tech as 18.5-point home favorites.  This team just isn’t very good, especially offensively as they are playing musical chairs at quarterback.  The Seminoles are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Hurricanes are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games and 6-14 ATS in their last 20 conference games.  Take Florida State. 

7* Navy/UConn NCAAF Friday Night Lights on OVER 54 

The Key: The Navy Midshipmen have one of the most explosive offenses they’ve ever had this season.  They are scoring 37.9 PPG this season and it’s a big reason why they are 6-1.  They should be able to name their score against a soft Connecticut defense that yields 37.7 PPG on the year.  The Huskies have showed some offensive punch this season scoring at least 21 points in 5 of their 8 games, including 56 against UMass last week.  I think they can get to 21 here as well to help out this OVER.  The OVER is 6-1 in Navy’s last 7 games against a team with a losing record.  Take the OVER. 

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Stanford PK 

The Key: Stanford is too prideful to pack it in.  The Cardinal are 3-4 this season but they’ve played the 3rd-ranked schedule in the country.  They are coming off a bad loss to UCLA, but that was with their 3rd-string QB, which is one of the worst QB’s I’ve ever seen.  Now the Cardinal should get back either starter KJ Costello or 2nd-stringer Davis Mills this week from injury.  Both have been effective, so as long as one of them starts as I’m expecting, we’ll be good to go.  Arizona lost 27-51 at home to Washington and 14-41 at USC in its last two games.  The Wildcats are getting too much respect from oddsmakers this week.  The Wildcats are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 road games.  The Cardinal are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings winning 4 of those games by 24 points or more.  The Wildcats are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games off 2 straight conference games.  Take Stanford. 

7* SEC Game of the Year on Georgia -24.5 

The Key: Poor Kentucky.  The Wildcats get to be the punching bag that Georgia takes out its frustration on after getting upset by South Carolina last week.  The Bulldogs gave away that game by committing 4 turnovers in what was a very fluky loss.  Now they take on a Kentucky team that has lost both of its road games in blowout fashion 13-28 at Mississippi State and 7-24 at South Carolina.  If they couldn’t hang with those 2 teams on the road, they have no chance of hanging with Georgia.  Kentucky is down to a 3rd-string QB who was a former receiver.  They can only run the football, making them one-dimensional.  That will be easy for Georgia to stop.  Georgia only allows 73 RYPG and 2.7 YPC this year.  Once Georgia gets up 28-plus, there will be no back door coming because Kentucky doesn’t have a passing game.  The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss.  The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Georgia. 

7* Marshall/FAU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Florida Atlantic -4.5 

The Key: Many bettors forgot about Florida Atlantic after they were blown out by 2 of the best teams in the country in Ohio State and UCF to open the season.  But they’ve gone 4-0 since with 4 double-digit victories.  I look for them to win this game by a touchdown or more at home against a Marshall team that has been very disappointing.  The Thundering Herd are 3-3 SU & 1-5 ATS this year.  Their 3 wins have come over VMI, Old Dominion and Ohio (by 2) all at home.  They lost to a bad Middle Tennessee team 13-24 on the road, were blown out at home by Cincinnati 14-52, and lost 7-14 at Boise State in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  Marshall only had 172 total yards against Boise State and gave up 437 yards.  The Owls are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in 2 straight games.  Take Florida Atlantic. 

7* South Alabama/Troy Sun Belt *HEAVY HITTER* on South Alabama +17 

The Key: This game just means a lot more to South Alabama than Troy.  The Jaguars are looked at the little brother in this rivalry of Alabama schools.  But they’ve gone 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last 6 meetings with only one loss by more than 7 points.  They pulled two outright upsets 19-8 and 24-18 at Troy as 18 and 6-point dogs in their last two road trips in this series.  And their three losses came by 1, 7 and 21 points.  This is one of the worst Troy teams we’ve seen in years largely due to head coach Neal Brown leaving the program.  They are 2-3 with their only wins coming against Akron and Campbell.  South Alabama has kept some games close this season against some good teams, losing by 14 at Nebraska as 35-point dogs, by 13 at Louisiana-Monroe as 13-point dogs and by 3 to Georgia Southern as 10-point dogs.  They are hungry for their first win against an FBS opponent, and they would love nothing more than for it to come against Troy.  The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a losing record.  The Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.  The Trojans are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 home games against a team with a losing record.  The Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.  Take South Alabama. 

7* Conference USA Game of the Year on Florida Atlantic -10.5 

The Key: The FAU Owls were quickly forgotten about after opening 0-2 with losses to Ohio State and UCF.  But those are 2 of the best teams in the country, and they actually played Ohio State as tough as anyone has in a 21-45 road loss.  They’ve since gone 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS with blowout wins at Ball State 41-31, at home over Wagner 42-7 and at Charlotte 45-27.  Now they will beat a bad Middle Tennessee team by double-digits tonight.  All three of MTSU’s losses have come by 19 points or more.  Their only wins were at home against Tennessee State and Marshall.  They only outgained Tennessee State by 138 yards as 26-point favorites and were outgained by 177 yards by Marshall in a misleading final.  FAU is refreshed and refocused as it will be returning from its bye week and ready to go this week.  The Owls want to avenge a 24-25 road loss at MTSU last year.  MTSU is 1-14 ATS in its last 15 against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better.  The Blue Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against a team with a winning record.  Take Florida Atlantic. 

7* Colorado/Oregon NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Colorado +21.5 

The Key: The Oregon Ducks are laying too many points tonight.  They haven’t been able to put teams away by big margins.  They only beat Montana by 35 as 39.5-point favorites, Stanford by 15 and Cal by 10 in their last 3 games coming in.  Colorado is good enough to stay within 3 touchdowns of Oregon.  The Buffaloes are 3-2 this season with their 2 losses coming by 7 and 5 points.  They beat Nebraska and Arizona State, so they have played a pretty tough schedule thus far.  The Buffaloes have the offense to keep up with the Ducks.  They are scoring 34.6 PPG overall and 43.0 PPG on the road.  They have a veteran QB in Steven Montez who won’t be fazed by playing in Eugene.  Montez is completing 67% of his passes for 1,463 yards with 10 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions while averaging 8.3 YPA.  Oregon is 0-6 ATS against teams that commit one or fewer turnovers per game over the last 3 years.  Take Colorado. 

7* App State/Lafayette Sun Belt *HEAVY HITTER* on Louisiana-Lafayette -1 

The Key: This is a rematch from the Sun Belt title game last year.  Lafayette lost by 10 at Appalachian State in the regular season and by 11 in the championship game, which was also at App State.  Now the Rajin’ Cajuns are playing with double revenge and finally get the Mountaineers at home this year.  That will make all the difference.  We are going to get a big effort from the Rajin’ Cajuns, who are clearly the better team this year.  They are 4-1 with their only loss coming on the road at Mississippi State by 10.  The Rajin’ Cajuns are outgaining teams by 195 YPG on the season.  Appalachian State is 4-0, but they are only outgaining teams by 9 YPG on the year.  And this despite playing the 143rd-ranked schedule in the nation.  This will easily be the Mountaineers’ toughest test yet.  Lafayette is 5-0 ATS in all games this year and will improve to 6-0 with a win and cover Wednesday.  Take LA-Lafayette.