7* ACC Game of the Year on Georgia Tech +11 

The Key: This is the ultimate flat spot for the UNC Tar Heels.  They came up just a 2-point conversion short of upsetting Clemson last week.  Now they have to try and get back up off the mat and face a Georgia Tech team that is 1-3 on the season.  They won’t be interested at all in this game.  The Tar Heels are extra defeated right now after losing 3 straight games by 6 points or less after winning their first 2 games by 4 points or fewer.  So all 5 of their games have been decided by 6 points or less, and this one will go down to the wire as well.  Georgia Tech now had 4 games under its belt in the new schemes under Geoff Collins, who arrived from Temple.  And that loss to Temple last week was far from the 24-2 blowout it appeared.  The Yellow Jackets were only outgained by 18 yards by the Owls on the road but committed 3 costly turnovers.  Georgia Tech is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 home meetings.  Take Georgia Tech. 

7* UCF/Cincinnati ESPN Friday Night Lights on Cincinnati +4.5 

The Key: Cincinnati has played a schedule that is almost two times as hard as that of UCF to this point.  I like that they’ve been tested early and are 3-1 with their only loss coming on the road to powerhouse Ohio State.  UCF is 4-1, but they lost on the road to Pittsburgh, a team that lost badly to Virginia and barely beat FCS Delaware by a field goal last week.  If Pittsburgh can knock them off, there’s no question Cincinnati can.  I love home underdogs in weeknight games because the atmosphere is electric, and it will be a Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati Friday night as well.  This Bearcats defense will be the best stop unit that UCF has seen yet this season.  They are giving up just 20.7 PPG and 297 YPG this year.  Take Cincinnati. 

7* Mountain West Game of the Year on Nevada -2 

The Key: Nevada is for sure one of my favorite plays of the entire 2019 season.  They host Hawaii Saturday night in Reno.  Game-time temps are expected to be in the 40’s as there’s a cold front moving through Nevada.  Hawaii has had upper 80’s temps all week, so they will be a little shell shocked for these 40-degree temps.  And this game will be played in altitude.  Nevada is 5-0 in their last 5 home meetings with Hawaii, and 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings overall with an average cover of 10 PPG.  Their dominance of the Rainbow Warriors should continue here Saturday.  Take Nevada. 

7* Duke/Virginia Tech ESPN Friday Night Lights on Virginia Tech -2.5 

The Key: We are getting the Virginia Tech Hokies cheap tonight.  They aren’t off to the most impressive start in the world, but they had a bye week to get things corrected and come out and take care of business at home here against Duke.  Turnovers have been a problem with 9 of them in 3 games, so look for that to be the focal point leading up to this game.  Virginia Tech has won 13 of its last 15 meetings with Duke and I expect that series domination to continue tonight.  The Hokies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning road record.  Take Virginia Tech. 

7* Cal/Ole Miss ESPNU *HEAVY HITTER* on Ole Miss -2.5 

The Key: Ole Miss wants revenge from a 16-27 upset loss at Cal 2 years ago.  Now they get Cal at home this time around in an early start game that will be a 9:00 AM body clock game for the Golden Bears.  I think Cal players will still feel sleepy by the time this game starts, and they won’t be ready for the men among boys on the other sideline.  I’ll almost always side with SEC over Pac-12, especially when it’s two middle of the road teams here like Cal and Ole Miss.  The Rebels are one of the most improved teams in the country defensively this season, holding Memphis to just 15 points on the road in the opener.  And the Rebels are clearly the better team offensively.  Take Ole Miss. 

7* Utah/USC NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah -3.5 

The Key: The Utah Utes are a legit Pac-12 title contender this season.  This is a huge game for them to go on the road and handle their business against USC.  These teams already have a common opponent in BYU.  Utah won at BYU 30-12, while USC lost at BYU 27-30.  Clay Helton just has not been able to deliver in this underdog role.  Helton is 1-12 SU & 2-11 ATS as an underdog at USC with 11 losses by double-digits.  The 12 losses have come by an average of 18.8 PPG.  Take Utah. 

7* Iowa/Iowa State Rivalry Game of the Year on Iowa State +1.5 

The Key: The Iowa State Cyclones had a bye week to get ready for Iowa.  It’s exactly what they needed as they were humbled in needing OT to beat UNI, so it should have been a productive two weeks of practice.  I think this line is an overreaction to that UNI win.  Iowa State outgained Northern Iowa by 201 yards as that was a misleading final.  Iowa has played Miami Ohio and Rutgers, two terrible teams and is getting too much credit for blowing out both.  Iowa State is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games as a home dog.  Take Iowa State. 

7* Washington State/Houston NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Houston +9.5 

The Key: No team has played an easier schedule than Washington State.  The Cougars are getting too much respect from oddsmakers for their blowout wins over New Mexico State and Northern Colorado.  This team lost a lot of talent from last year and now they step up in class here against Houston.  This is a Houston team that is battle tested with their 31-49 loss to Oklahoma in the opener.  They’ll be ready for Washington State, and this is basically a home game for them played at the Texans’ stadium in Houston.  D’Eriq King is one of the best quarterbacks in the country and will be ready to match Mike Leach and company score for score.  Take Houston. 

7* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Year on Texas State +7.5 

The Key: The Texas State Bobcats should be one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They brought back 19 starters and nabbed an offensive-minded head coach in Jake Spavital and he brought some great coordinators with him.  It didn’t show against Texas A&M in the opener as they lost 7-41 as 34-point dogs, but that’s expected against a team the caliber of the Aggies.  Wyoming is coming off a misleading 37-31 upset of Missouri, setting the Cowboys up for a big letdown spot.  They gave up 537 yards and were outgained by 148 yards in that game.  Missouri twice turned it over going into the end zone, and also gave up another turnover for a score.  Their 3 turnovers were essentially a 24-point swing.  Bets on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points who allowed 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters and the QB returning in the first month of the season are 22-3 ATS since 1992.  Take Texas State. 

7* Fresno State/USC ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on USC -13.5 

The Key: The USC Trojans come into the 2019 season flying under the radar for the first time in a long time.  That’s because they didn’t even make a bowl game last year with a 5-7 record.  But with the talent they recruit, the Trojans won’t be down for long.  They had won double-digit games in the previous two seasons under Clay Helton.  Fresno State has been a good story the last few years, but they lose a ton of talent from those teams.  They only have 9 starters back and are the 2nd-least experienced team in the country this year. USC comes in hungry to get their season off on solid footing and won’t be taking the Bulldogs lightly.  Take USC. 

7* Wisconsin/USF ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Wisconsin -10 

The Key: The Wisconsin Badgers are coming off a down year, which for them is 8-5.  They had won 10 or more games in 4 straight years prior.  And they should get back to being their dominant selves this year.  It starts with Week 1 against South Florida, which went 7-6 last year.  The Bulls won their first 7 games against weak competition, then lost their final 6 when they took a step up in class.  This is a step up in class for them as well.  Bets on road favorites of 10 to 21 points who were an excellent rushing team last season averaging 5.25 YPC or more are 26-6 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Wisconsin. 

7* UCLA/Cincinnati ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Cincinnati -2 

The Key: The Cincinnati Bearcats went on the road and beat UCLA 26-17 last year as 14-point underdogs.  Now they get them at home in the rematch and it should be more of the same.  This is a Cincinnati team that won 11 games last year and has 14 starters back from that squad, including QB Desmond Ridder and RB Michael Warren, who rushed for 1,329 yards and 19 touchdowns last year.  The Bearcats went 6-0 at home last season and outscored opponents by 30.0 PPG.  Take Cincinnati. 

7* Florida/Miami ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Florida -7 

The Key: Dan Mullen turned Mississippi State into an SEC power, which is hard to do.  Then he took a 4-7 Florida team before arriving into a 10-3 team last year that beat Michigan 41-15 in the Peach Bowl.  Mullen is easily a Top 5 coach in the country, and he doesn’t get the respect he deserves.  Now the Gators have 13 returning starters this year with a loaded defense that has 8 starters back.  Having a proven QB in Feleipe Franks and all of his top receivers back from last year plus their leading rusher will help ease the pain of only having 5 returning starters on offense.  I just don’t trust Miami.  They went 7-6 last year and are going through a coaching change with Manny Diaz taking over after accepting the Temple job.  They only have 12 returning starters and will be starting a redshirt freshman quarterback.  Their offense was poor last year and will be again to start, especially facing a defense that caliber of Florida.  Remember last year Miami was dominated 17-33 by LSU in the opener, and they will get a similar fate here against another SEC power in the Gators.  The Hurricanes are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  The Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.  Take Florida. 

7* Alabama/Clemson *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 58 

The Key: Forecasts are calling for rain in Santa Clara and it’s going to be colder than normal.  It will likely be a sloppy field, which will benefit the UNDER.  Also benefitting the UNDER is that these are two of the best defenses in the country.  The Tigers allow just 12.9 PPG and 275 YPG while the Crimson Tide yield only 16.2 PPG and 308 YPG.  Neither of these offenses have faced a defense as good as the one they will be facing tonight.  Clemson is 9-0 UNDER against good teams who outscore their opponents by 10 or more points per game over the last 2 seasons.  Take the UNDER. 

7* NCAAF Bowl Game of the Year on Texas +12 

The Key: Tom Herman as an underdog is a scary proposition for opponents.  Herman is 12-2 ATS as a dog in his head coaching career and even better than that dating back to his time as an assistant at Iowa State and Ohio State with something like a 22-2 ATS record as a dog.  Georgia doesn’t want to be here.  The Bulldogs wanted to make the four-team playoff and are very disappointed they didn’t.  They were the final team left out.  Those teams never seem to show up when they were the final team left out, or right on the borderline of making the playoffs.  Texas will be able to hang around because of it.  Take Texas. 

7* Northwestern/Utah NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Northwestern +7 

The Key: Northwestern is relishing this opportunity to be playing in the Holiday Bowl.  I think Utah is the more disappointed team after scoring just 3 points in a loss to Washington that cost them a trip to the Rose Bowl.  Pat Fitzgerald has certainly gotten his team to play well in the underdog role.  Underdogs went 11-1-1 ATS in Northwestern games this season.  Northwestern pulled off 5 outright upsets in 7 tries as an underdogs this season.  And the two losses were to Michigan (by 3) and Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship.  The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS against teams who win 60% to 75% of their games over the last 2 seasons.  Take Northwestern. 

7* Alabama/Oklahoma *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 79 

The Key: Alabama will utilize its running game to keep the Oklahoma offense off the field in this game.  And the Alabama defense is way better than anything Oklahoma has seen this season.  This should be much lower scoring than the oddsmakers anticipate.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Ohio/San Diego State *HEAVY HITTER* on San Diego State +3 

The Key: Wrong team favored here.  Ohio getting too much respect for their finish to the season, while SDSU getting killed by oddsmakers for their 0-3 finish to the season.  The Aztecs weren’t motivated at all over their final 3 games and now will be motivated to finish off their season with a win.  The Bobcats were motivated down the stretch trying to win the MAC.  The MAC is just 6-24 SU in bowl games over the last 6 years.  And after an 0-2 start to this bowl season, the MAC is now 1-12 SU over the last 3 seasons in bowl games.  The Aztecs are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as underdogs, which includes outright upsets over Boise State and Arizona State this season.  Take San Diego State. 

7* December Bowl Total of the Year on ASU/Fresno State UNDER 53.5 

The Key: Two teams with great defenses square off in the Las Vegas Bowl Saturday.  Fresno State has been elite defensively, giving up only 13.7 PPG on the season.  Arizona State allows 25.1 PPG.  And these are two mediocre offenses.  But my favorite thing about these offenses is that they don’t turn the football overall.  Fresno State has committed just 11 turnovers in 13 games, while ASU has committed only 8 turnovers in 12 games.  Turnovers usually create easy points, and since both teams won’t be turning it over, I think that greatly benefits the UNDER.  ASU’s offense suffered a big blow when it was announced leading receiver N’Keal Harry would skip the bowl game to get ready for the NFL Draft.  He may be the best receiver in the Pac-12, catching 73 balls for 1,088 yards and 9 touchdowns this season.  The UNDER is 22-8 in Bulldogs last 30 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Bulldogs last 6 games this season with a total of 49.5 to 56 points.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Alabama/Georgia SEC Game of the Year on Georgia +12 

The Key: Georgia wants to avenge its 26-23 (OT) loss to Alabama in the championship game last year.  This is the opportunity they’ve waited a year for, and I expect them to take advantage.  They are the team best equipped to beat Alabama in the country.  They have an elite defense and an experienced offense with yet another elite running game, plus Jake Fromm calling the shots at quarterback.  Bets on neutral field underdogs who average 200 or more rushing yards per game after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games are 24-4 ATS since 1992.  Take Georgia. 

7* NIU/Buffalo NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Buffalo -3 

The Key: I believe Buffalo to be the better of these two teams, and I don’t really even think it’s close.  While NIU has the better defense, they don’t have the offense that can keep up with Buffalo.  The Bulls score 35.2 PPG this season behind a balanced attack with 200 rushing yards and 219 passing yards per game.  And they have a pretty good defense of their own giving up 24.2 PPG.  NIU averages a putrid 19.9 PPG and 318 YPG.  The Huskies give up 20.9 PPG, so they have a good defense, but they are actually getting outscored and outgained on the season.  They were fortunate to make the MAC Championship to say the least as the MAC West was down this season.  The Huskies are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as a neutral field underdog.  Buffalo is 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS against MAC opponents this season.  They are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 conference games dating back to last season.  The Bulls are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games overall.  Take Buffalo. 

7* South Carolina/Clemson ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on South Carolina +26.5 

The Key: Clemson will make the four-team playoff no matter what happens in this game against South Carolina as long as they beat Pitt next week in the ACC Championship.  The Tigers are getting too much love now after going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  They did not cover as 29.5-point favorites against Duke last week in a 29-point win.  And now they are 26.5-point favorites against South Carolina, a team that is much better than Duke.  The Gamecocks have their best offense of the Will Muschamp era this season as they are scoring 32.8 PPG.  And they still have a solid defense.  They have what it takes to stay within 4 touchdowns of the Tigers.  The Gamecocks are 7-0 ATS in road games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.  South Carolina is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 road games overall.  The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.  Take South Carolina. 

7* Washington/Wash State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Washington State -2 

The Key: This year just feels different.  I know Washington has owned Washington State in the Apple Cup, but this is the best Cougars team that Mike Leach has had yet.  And I think they’re ready to take that next step.  The Cougars are 10-1 SU & 10-1 ATS this season, getting overlooked all year.  Their only loss came early in the season by a field goal at USC.  Washington has been overvalued all season, going 8-3 SU & 2-9 ATS.  The Huskies are 0-6 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better this season.  Take Washington State. 

7* Mountain West Game of the Month on Wyoming -2.5 

The Key: Wyoming has fought its way back into bowl contention at 4-6 on the season.  The Cowboys went on the road and beat Colorado State 34-21 and topped San Jose State 24-9 at home.  Then they had a bye last week to get ready for the stretch run, where now if they beat Air Force and New Mexico they will get to a bowl, which is very doable.  It starts with taking care of Air Force here, and they have the rest advantage because Air Force played New Mexico last week.  The Falcons only run the football as they average just 14 pass attempts per game.  That bodes well for Wyoming, which is giving up just 114 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season.  The Falcons are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 conference games, and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Cowboys are 14-3 ATS in the last 17 meetings, including 4-0 ATS in the last 4 home meetings.  Take Wyoming. 

7* Memphis/SMU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on SMU +9 

The Key: SMU can clinch a bowl berth with a win Friday night at home over Memphis.  Memphis has already clinched a bowl at 6-4.  It’s clear to me the hungrier team will be the home underdog Mustangs.  And they are fighting for a bowl and have been for weeks, going 3-1 in their last 4 games with their only loss coming to nationally ranked Cincinnati in overtime.  They upset Tulane as 9.5-point road dogs 27-23 and upset Houston 45-31 as 14-point home dogs.  And now they are catching too many points against Memphis.  The Tigers are just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS on the road this season, where their defense is giving up 42 PPG and 504 YPG.  SMU has topped 500 total yards in each of its last two games against Houston and UConn while averaging 53.5 PPG and should be able to move the ball at will.  Bets on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points who scored 42 or more points in 2 straight games coming in are 44-12 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take SMU. 

7* FAU/North Texas C-USA *HEAVY HITTER* on North Texas -3.5 

The Key: North Texas wants revenge from two losses to FAU last season.  They lost 69-31 in the regular season and 41-17 in the conference championship game.  But there’s no question the Mean Green have the better team in 2018, and it will show on the field Thursday night.  The Owls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.  The Mean Green are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 November games.  Take North Texas. 

7* FSU/Notre Dame Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Florida State +17 

The Key: This line has hardly moved since it was announced that Ian Book was out at quarterback for Notre Dame.  Oddsmakers aren’t adjusting enough for his absence.  Brandon Wimbush will take his place, and he’s a terrible passer.  He’s completing just 55.3% of his passes this season compared to 74.5% for Book.  Wimbush has a 1/4 TD/INT ratio compared to the 15/4 mark for Book.  Wimbush is a running quarterback.  That plays right into Florida State’s hands.  The biggest strength of this entire FSU team is their run defense.  The Seminoles only give up 111 RYPG and 2.8 YPC!  That’s not what you would expect form a 4-5 team like them.  But this is the Super Bowl for the Seminoles and they’ll come to play tonight to try and knock off the unbeaten Fighting Irish.  The Seminoles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.  The Fighting Irish are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 November games.  All the pressure is on the Irish tonight.  Take Florida State. 

7* Toledo/NIU MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Northern Illinois -3 

The Key: The Northern Illinois Huskies can basically wrap up to the MAC West title with a win tonight.  No question they’ll be motivated to get it done.  This has been one of the best teams in the MAC all season, and they should be able to handle Toledo by more than a field goal at home tonight.  NIU is 6-3 this season with its 3 losses coming to Utah, Iowa and Florida State.  The Huskies have handled their business in MAC play this year with a 5-0 conference record.  They also went on the road and upset BYU.  Toledo is still without starting QB Mitchell Guadagni.  Their backup has played well in his place, but against soft defenses, and he’s going to really get tested tonight against the best defense in the MAC.  The Huskies are giving up just 20.4 PPG and 327 YPG in MAC play this year.  That’s the difference in this game.  Toledo is allowing 26.4 PG and 445 YPG this season.  The Huskies are 7-0 ATS after outrushing their last opponent by 150 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons.  The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win.  Take Northern Illinois. 

7* Kent State/Buffalo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Kent State +20 

The Key: Buffalo doesn’t even need to show up tonight.  The Bulls can lose outright and it won’t matter.  Next week’s game against Ohio will decided the MAC East champion.  I think their lack of motivation will allow Kent State to get the cover here.  And I also like that there is gusts of up to 50 miles per hour forecasted in this one, which should keep this a low scoring affair.  Take Kent State. 

7* NCAAF Independent Game of the Year on Liberty +2 

The Key: Liberty is the better of these two teams.  They sit at 4-3 on the season with wins over the likes of Troy and New Mexico.  And they’ve been competitive in most of their games.  Plus they had a bye last week to get ready to face UMass this week.  UMass is coming off a fortunate 22-17 victory at UConn last week as they trailed most the way.  And UConn is one of the worst teams in the country.  The Minutemen are just 3-6 this season with their other two wins coming against Duquesne and Charlotte.  All 6 of their losses have come by double-digits.  Now they have to face an option team here in Liberty.  The last time they faced an option team they lost 13-34 at Georgia Southern as 1.5-point underdogs on September 8th. Liberty is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games as a road underdog.  Take Liberty. 

7* Colorado/Arizona NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Arizona -2.5 

The Key: Khalil Tate finally looked healthy for the first time all season last week as he returned from injury to face Oregon.  The Wildcats played their best game of the season in a 44-15 victory.  Tate threw for 189 yards and 3 touchdowns in the win.  And now the Wildcats are getting zero respect for that victory as only 2.5-point home favorites over Colorado Friday night.  I think the Wildcats remain hungry because they are 4-5 and need 2 more wins to make a bowl, and this game is a must-win if they want to get to a bowl because they have a road game at Washington State next time out that they’re unlikely to win.  And they get a bye next week so they certainly want to go into their bye with a taste of victory.  Colorado blew a huge lead against Oregon State last week and lost 34-41.  I think they could suffer a hangover from that defeat.  The Buffaloes have now lost 3 straight as the competition has ramped up.  Colorado is 0-7 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.  The Buffaloes are also 0-7 ATS after playing a game where 60 or more points were scores over the last 2 years.  Take Arizona. 

7* Ball State/Toledo MAC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 66 

The Key: Ball State has several key injuries right now that will hamper their ability to score points.  Riley Neal means everything to this team at the quarterback position.  He was knocked out for the season in their last game and won’t be returning.  That leaves backup QB Drew Pitt to take the reigns.  Also, leading rusher James Gilbert is questionable to play tonight with a back injury.  They have some serious injuries on the offensive line as well.  For Toledo, starting QB Mitchell Guadagni is questionable with a shoulder injury, and even if he plays he won’t be 100%.  Ball State is 12-2 UNDER in its last 14 games as a road dog of 14.5 to 21 points.  The UNDER is 7-2-1 in Cardinals last 10 games overall.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Rockets last eight Wednesday games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Toledo.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Kent State/Bowling Green MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Kent State +1.5 

The Key: Both Kent State and Bowling Green are 1-7 this season.  But it’s clear to me that Kent State is better than their record, while Bowling Green is every bit as poor as its record.  The only win for Bowling Green came 42-35 at home over Eastern Kentucky.  The lone win for Kent State came 54-14 over Howard, the same Howard team that only lost 32-38 to Ohio.  And Kent State has losses by 1, 1, and 7 points this season to Illinois, Ohio and Akron.  Bowling Green’s 7 losses have all come by 7 points or more, and 6 of them by 15 points or more.  These teams have 2 common opponents with both losing, the difference being Kent State only losing by 13 PPG while Bowling Green losing by 25 PPG.  The Golden Flashes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. teams who average 250 PYPG or more and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. teams who allow 230 RYPG or more.  The Falcons are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games following a loss.  The Falcons are 1-10 ATS when the total is between 63.5 and 70 over the last 3 years.  Take Kent State. 

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on California +12 

The Key: The Cal Golden Bears finally snapped out of their funk with a 49-7 beat down of Oregon State.  That result was more indicative of the potential of this team than the three consecutive losses that preceded it.  The Golden Bears gave away those three games by committing a combined 14 turnovers in them, which is almost unheard of.  They only gave the ball away once against Oregon State and amassed 539 total yards.  They can play with Washington if they don’t turn the ball over, and likely beat them.  The Huskies are just 2-6 ATS in their 8 games this season and have been overrated all season.  They should not be double-digit road favorites over the Bears this weekend.  Cal is 7-0 ATS off a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers over the last 2 seasons.  Take Cal. 

7* Wyoming/Colorado State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Colorado State -1.5 

The Key: I love the price we are getting on Colorado State as less than a field goal home favorite over Wyoming Friday night.  The Rams still have something to play for at 3-5 as they need to win 3 of their final 4 games to make a bowl.  And this one is their most winnable, so they should handle their business.  The Rams have a full week to get ready for this game after playing last Friday.  Their offense put up 489 total yards against Boise State in what was a misleading 28-56 loss.  The Broncos got 2 special teams touchdowns and the Rams outgained them by 17 yards.  Collin Hill took over for Carta-Samuels at QB midway through the game and finished 12-of-14 for 135 yards and a touchdown.  Hill is expected to get the start this week and is an upgrade over Carta-Samuels.  Wyoming is just 2-6 with very little to play for at this point.  It is coming off 4 consecutive losses, and its two wins this season have come against Wofford (17-14) and New Mexico State.  The Cowboys have been atrocious on offense in averaging just 15.5 PPG and 289 YPG this season.  I’m not sure how they are going to keep up with this potent Colorado State offense.  The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  Wyoming is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take Colorado State. 

7* Georgia Tech/Virginia Tech ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Virginia Tech -3 

The Key: I love the situation for the Hokies tonight.  Both them and Georgia Tech are coming off bye weeks, and that clearly favors the Hokies.  Any time a team has extra time to prepare for the triple-option I’m looking to back that team because it’s so critical to get that extra prep time.  Whether it be off a bye or for a bowl game, it’s a huge advantage.  And defensive coordinator Bud Foster will be extra hungry after losing to Georgia Tech each of the last two seasons.  The Yellow Jackets are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.  Georgia Tech is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games overall.  The Hokies are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games.  The Hokies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.  Take Virginia Tech. 

7* Troy/South Alabama Sun Belt *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 54.5 

The Key: The Troy Trojans lost starting QB Kaleb Barker to a torn ACL two games ago.  Backup Sawyer Smith started against Liberty and the Trojans lost a defensive battle, 16-22.  This should be another defensive battle here against South Alabama if the recent series history is any indication.  The UNDER is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings with combined scores of 27 (2017), 49 (2016), 42 (2015) and 40 (2014) points.  I’m shocked to see this total sitting at 54.5 given the series history plus Troy’s QB situation.  Take the UNDER. 

7* SEC Game of the Week on Ole Miss +4 

The Key: I think Auburn has thrown in the towel already.  The Tigers had SEC title aspirations coming into the season, but now they’ve lost 3 games already.  And they just aren’t that good.  They are coming off an ugly 24-30 home loss to Tennessee as 15.5-point favorites.  And I question their motivation now with 3 losses.  Ole Miss is feeling good with a 5-2 start with its only losses coming to LSU and Alabama, two of the best teams in the country.  They got a big 37-33 comeback road win at Arkansas last week.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Ole Miss. 

7* Colorado State/Boise State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Colorado State +24 

The Key: Colorado State has played Boise State tough the last 2 years.  The Rams only lost by 5 as 28-point road underdogs in 2016 . And last year they lost by 7 in overtime as 6.5-point home dogs.  They led by 14 late in that game and it took a miracle for Boise State to win.  So the Rams will be out for revenge for sure.  And they are catching a whopping 24 points in this year’s meeting.  I just think Boise State is overrated right now.  They lost to San Diego State outright and barely beat Nevada in their last two games.  The Broncos are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games.  The Rams are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take Colorado State. 

7* SEC Game of the Month on Florida -7 

The Key: Many would expect Florida to have a letdown after their big 27-19 win over LSU last week.  However, the Gators have a bye on deck next week, so that kind of trumps that theory.  They will be laying it all on the line to get a win here against Vanderbilt knowing that they have next week off.  Florida is 25-1 SU in its last 26 meetings with Vanderbilt, including 13-0 in its last 13 trips to Vanderbilt.  The Commodores have been awful in their last 3 games.  They lost 14-37 at home to South Carolina, barely beat Tennessee State 31-27 as 28.5-point home favorites, and lost 13-41 at Georgia.  They have come back down to reality after a fast start to the season against weak competition.  The Gators have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games with wins by 38 over Colorado State, by 26 at Tennessee, by 7 at Mississippi State and by 8 at home over LSU.  They continue rolling Saturday.  Take Florida. 

7* Arizona/Utah NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Arizona +14 

The Key: Utah is getting too much respect from its 40-21 win at Stanford last week.  The Cardinal were gassed in that game as they were playing a 3rd straight tough game after facing Oregon and Notre Dame the previous two weeks.  The Utes took advantage.  But now they’ll laying two touchdowns to the Arizona Wildcats, who have won 3 of their last 4 coming in with their only loss coming 20-24 to USC.  Seven of the last eight meetings between Utah and Arizona have been decided by 14 points or fewer.  The Wildcats can hang here, especially since the Utes have an underwhelming offense that makes it tough for them to win by a margin.  Take Arizona. 

7* Sun Belt Game of the Month on Arkansas State +10.5 

The Key: This spread has gotten out of control with Appalachian State laying double-digits on the road against a Sun Belt power in Arkansas State that has won 5 titles in the past 6 seasons.  This one is all about strength of schedule for me.  App State has played a very weak schedule with three cupcakes and only one tough game at Penn State, which was back in Week 1.  Arkansas State has played 4 games already against solid programs in Alabama, Tulsa, UNLV and Georgia Southern.  I expect the Red Wolves to play the underdog card up tonight and be extra hungry for a victory.  They are 1-4 ATS this season and undervalued because of it, while App State is 4-0 ATS and overvalued.  This is simply too many points tonight.  Take Arkansas State. 

7* Big 12 Game of the Month on Iowa State +9.5 

The Key: Iowa State is battle-tested already having played Oklahoma, Iowa and TCU with two of those games on the road.  And yet they still haven’t lost by more than 10 points in any game, being competitive in all of them.  Oklahoma State will be the fourth-best team they have faced yet.  And I would argue that Iowa State is probably the best team that Oklahoma State has played.  And the Cowboys lost 17-41 at home to Texas Tech as 14.5-point favorites, so they are beatable.  And the Cyclones want revenge from some close calls recently against the Cowboys.  They have lost 5 straight to Oklahoma State, including the last three all by 7 points or less.  I expect this one to go down to the wire as well, so the price is right to back the Cyclones here catching nearly double-digits.  The Cyclones are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.  The Cyclones are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.  Iowa State is 10-1 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow 58% competitions or more over the last 3 seasons.  Take Iowa State. 

7* Utah State/BYU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah State +2 

The Key: Utah State has gone on to prove that its narrow 31-38 loss to Michigan State as 23.5-point underdogs in the opener was no fluke.  They have since gone 3-0 with a 60-13 win over New Mexico State, a 73-12 win over Tennessee Tech and a 42-32 win over Air Force.  And now the Aggies are in the perfect spot having a bye since that Air Force win to get ready for BYU.  Meanwhile, BYU has played a brutal schedule to start and has had no time off.  They’ve played Arizona, Cal, Wisconsin, and Washington.  It looked like they ran out of gas last week against Washington, losing 7-35 while getting outgained by 270 yards.  I don’t think they’ll have much left in the tank here Friday on this short week against a rested Utah State squad.  The Aggies are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after gaining 450 or more total yards in their previous game.  The Aggies are 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 Friday games.  The Cougars are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games.  The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Friday games.  BYU is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 home games vs. teams who average 450 or more yards per game on offense.  Take Utah State. 

7* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Year on UL-Lafayette +49.5 

The Key: Alabama is notorious for not being able to cover the spread in these situations.  They are coming off a big win over Texas A&M, and now they step out of the conference this week before playing another SEC game against Arkansas next week.  They just don’t seem like they are ever concerned with running up the score.  The starters should be out of the game early in the 3rd quarter.  That’s going to make it difficult for them to win by 50-plus to cover this spread.  Bets on underdogs of 31.5 or more points who failed to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games, a bad team that wins 25% to 40% of their games against a team with a. Winning record are 48-17 ATS since 1992.  Take UL-Lafayette. 

7* Memphis/Tulane NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Tulane +15 

The Key: This feels like a huge game for Tulane if they want to get to a bowl game this year.  The Green Wave have opened 1-3 with road losses to UAB and Ohio State and a home loss to Wake Forest amidst a brutal schedule.  I think they will be ‘all in’ here trying to get a win against Memphis.  This is a Memphis team that only beat lowly South Alabama 52-35 as 31.5-point home favorites last week.  If South Alabama can hang, I certainly believe Tulane can at home.  And Memphis lost its only road game this year 21-22 at Navy, getting upset at 6.5-point favorites.  The Tigers are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games after scoring 50 points or more.  The Green Wave are 6-0 ATS in home games off a non-conference game over the last 3 years.  Tulane is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 home games overall.  Take Tulane. 

7* ACC Game of the Month on Clemson -16 

The Key: The Clemson Tigers aren’t laying enough points to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.  That’s largely due to the fact that they are 0-3 ATS on the season, costing bettors money up to this point.  But I think the price is right to back them now here in a game they should win by 3 touchdowns and finally cash in a winning ticket.  They have owned Georgia Tech in recent seasons, holding them to a combined 17 points in the last 2 meetings.  They have figured out how to stop the triple-option, and they are coming off a dominant 38-7 win over Georgia Southern and their triple-option last week, giving them great preparation for this game Saturday.  The Tigers have held the Yellow Jackets to just 121 yards per game and 2.9 yards per rush on the ground in their last 3 meetings with them.  Georgia Tech lost 1,000-yard rusher KirVonte Benson a few weeks back against USF, and it’s no wonder they are coming off back-to-back losses as they fell to Pitt last week as well.  This should be somewhere in the neighborhood of a 31-7 victory Saturday, if not worse.  Take Clemson. 

7* FAU/UCF ESPN Friday Night Lights on Florida Atlantic +13.5 

The Key: I think UCF is overvalued due to having not lost a game since 2016.  And I think losing their game last week due to weather is a bad thing for them.  FAU is a team that returned 16 starters this year including 10 on defense.  The Owls have been tested as they’ve already played Oklahoma and Air Force.  They have had this game circled on their calendars and should put forth a home run effort.  UCF has not been tested yet playing Upon and South Carolina State.  The UConn put up 486 total yards on this UCF defense.  The Owls should have plenty of success with their running game, which is elite.  The Knights have allowed 198 rushing yards per game in their two games against awful competition.  The Owls are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.  Take Florida Atlantic. 

7* Ohio State/TCU Top 25 *HEAVY HITTER* on TCU +14 

The Key: TCU is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog under Gary Patterson.  And now Patterson is catching two touchdowns against Ohio State Saturday.  The Horned Frogs are licking their chops at the opportunity to face the Buckeyes.  Remember, a few years back Ohio State was the team that got into the four-team playoff to knock TCU out of it even though the Horned Frogs deserved to be in.  Patterson and company have not forgotten.  The Horned Frogs play too good defensively to not be competitive here.  And their offense is better than it’s getting credit for with Shawn Robinson at QB.  Even though this is technically a neutral field, it’s not far from TCU’s campus in Arlington and it will be a TCU-heavy crowd.  Take TCU. 

7* Georgia/South Carolina SEC Game of the Month on South Carolina +10.5 

The Key: South Carolina finally has a team that is capable of competing with Georgia.  The Gamecocks believe they are good enough to challenge the Bulldogs for an SEC East title this season.  They get their chance to prove it on the field at home Saturday in what will be a hostile environment.  The Gamecocks are 7-1-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  South Carolina is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 games off a win by more than 20 points.  The Gamecocks are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  This is the best team that Will Muschamp has had yet at South Carolina, especially offensively with a great QB and two amazing playmakers at RB & WR.  Take South Carolina. 

7* TCU/SMU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on TCU -22 

The Key: The TCU Horned Frogs have owned the SMU Mustangs in recent years.  TCU has won the last 5 meetings by more than 31 PPG on average.  And that should be about the margin of victory for this year’s matchup.  TCU is another Big 12 title contender with an elite defense and an improved offense under a new QB.  And SMU is certainly going to take a step back now that Chad Morris is gone after improving dramatically under him and actually making a bowl last year.  But they lost that bowl by 41 points with Sonny Dykes at the helm, and they were blasted by 23 points at North Texas in Week 1 in Dykes’ first official first game as head coach last week.  The Mustangs are in for a rude awakening tonight.  Take TCU. 

7* Miami/LSU NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami -3 

The Key: The Miami Hurricanes won 10 games last year and are a team on the rise under Mark Richt.  They have 14 returning starters, including their starting QB and an elite defense.  LSU is headed in the wrong direction under Ed Orgeron.  And things aren’t getting any better for him this season with just 10 returning starters.  LSU is 1-8 ATS in September games over the last 3 seasons.  Orgeron is 4-13 ATS in September games as a head coach.  LSU is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 vs. ACC teams.  Take Miami. 

7* Washington/Auburn Top 10 *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +2.5 

The Key: The Washington Huskies are one of the best teams in the country in 2018.  They return 17 starters from a team that won 10 games last year.  This is a statement game for them taking down an SEC team in Auburn on a neutral field.  The Huskies have the best unit on the field, which is their defense that gave up 16.1 PPG last year and returns 9 starters.  Their ability to shut down Jarrett Stidham and this Auburn offense will be the key to victory.  The Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.  Auburn is 0-5-1 ATS in its last 6 non-conference games.  Take Washington. 

7* Alabama/Georgia NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -3.5 

The Key: It’s not often you’ll get the opportunity to back Alabama as this small of a favorite.  After all, they have been favored in 110 for their last 111 games with the only exception being 1-point underdogs at Georgia in 2015.  They blew out the Bulldogs 38-10 that year.  Alabama is equipped to stop Georgia considering the Crimson Tide have the best rushing defense in the country, giving up just 2.7 yards per carry.  Nick Saban is great at making his opponents play left-handed.  He will make Georgia’s freshman QB try and beat them through the air, and I don’t think he is capable of it.  Speaking of Saban, he’s 11-0 all-time against former assistants, winning by 29 PPG on average.  Kirby Smart is simply overmatched here.  Take Alabama. 

7* Alabama/Clemson NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -3 

The Key: Nick Saban and the Alabama Crimson Tide will be out for revenge from their loss to Clemson on the final play of the game as they were going for their 2nd consecutive national championship.  But now Clemson doesn’t have Deshaun Watson to dig them out of a hole again.  Saban is 10-2 straight up in revenge game as the coach of Alabama.  They had an extra week to get ready for this game because they finally didn’t make the SEC Championship.  Now they are getting healthy on defense for the first time in a long time.  Take Alabama. 

7* NCAAF Bowl Game of the Year on Miami +6.5 

The Key: This will be a home game for the Miami Hurricanes played in the Orange Bowl down in Miami.  They had their two best performances of the season in home night games earlier this year.  They beat Virginia Tech 28-10 as 1.5-point favorites and Notre Dame 41-8 as 3.5-point underdogs.  I think they come forth with a huge effort here against Wisconsin to finish off their season the right way.  Miami will be the bet team Wisconsin has faced outside Ohio State as the Badgers played an extremely soft schedule.  And the Badgers were thoroughly outplayed by the Buckeyes in their lone loss of the season.  I think you can chalk up loss No. 2 for the Badgers here Saturday night.  Take Miami. 

7* Utah State/New Mexico State *Total* Annihilator on OVER 63 

The Key: Expect offensive fireworks between Utah State and New Mexico State tonight in the Arizona bowl in perfect conditions in Tucson.  Utah State scored 35 or more points in 6 of its 12 games this season.  New Mexico State scored 30 or more points in 7 of its 12 games.  Basically both teams need to get to 30 to secure this OVER, which shouldn’t be a problem.  New Mexico State is 13-4 OVER in its last 17 games playing on 2 or more weeks rest.  The OVER is 7-0 in Aggies last 7 road games off an ATS loss.  The OVER is 9-3 in Utah State's last 12 games overall.  The OVER is 22-8 in NMSU's last 30 non-conference games.  The OVER is 41-20-2 in NMSU’s last 63 games overall.  Take the OVER.

7* Stanford/TCU NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on TCU -3 

The Key: I’m getting the better defense and the better offense in this game with TCU -3 here over Stanford.  I’m also getting a home-field advantage for the Horned Frogs as this game will be played in the Alamo Dome in San Antonio, Texas.  The Frogs give up just 17.6 PPG and 329 YPG which is ridiculously impressive in the Big 12 these days.  They also average 33.2 PPG and 414 YPG on offense.  Stanford only averages 32 PPG and 381 YPG on offense while giving up 21.5 PPG and 399 YPG on defense.  They are actually getting outgained by 18 YPG on the season, which is a sign that their 9-4 record is fraudulent.  Gary Patterson has had plenty of time to scheme and prepare for Stanford’s Bryce Love, which is their only real weapon offense.  The Horned Frogs only give up 100 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry this season.  Take TCU. 

7* Missouri/Texas NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas +3 

The Key: Missouri feasted on a weak schedule down the stretch to get to a bowl game.  After a 1-5 start, they reeled off 6 straight victories against Idaho, UConn, Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Arkansas.  None of those 6 teams made a bowl games.  Texas went through the Big 12 gauntlet and played both USC and Maryland out of conference.  They went 6-6, but they were competitive in every game and 4 of their 6 losses came by 5 points or less.  Tom Herman is 15-1 ATS in his coaching career as an underdog.  The wrong team is favored in this game.  Take Texas. 

7* NIU/Duke NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Northern Illinois +7 

The Key: The Northern Illinois Huskies have been one of the better Group of 5 teams in the country for years.  They kind of get overlooked this season because they ‘only’ went 8-4, but this is still a very good team that nearly won the MAC.  All four losses came by 10 points or less, including three by 7 points or fewer to Boston College (20-23), San Diego State (28-34), Central Michigan (24-31) and Toledo (17-27) with three of those losses coming on the road.  They also beat Nebraska on the road.  So they were competitive in every game, and they will be competitive against Duke here.  The Blue Devils only beat two bowl teams this season.  What gives NIU a shot to pull the upset tonight is the fact that its defense ranks 20th in the country, giving up just 20.8 PPG, 328 YPG and 4.6 YPP on the season.  The offense has been fine in scoring 30.2 PPG.  Duke’s offense has been suspect at 25.7 PPG.  This just has the makings of a low-scoring, defensive battle, and that certainly favors the underdog getting 7 points.  The Huskies are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games off two straight games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse.  The Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.  Take Northern Illinois. 

7* Central Michigan/Wyoming NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Central Michigan +3 

The Key: The Wyoming Cowboys are overrated because of Josh Allen’s NFL prospects.  But this offense has been one of the worst in the country.  The Cowboys only average 22.3 points and 287 yards per game.  That’s not very good for a QB like Allen who was expected to be a top draft choice coming into the season.  Conversely, the CMU Chippewas are rolling offensively.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games behind an offense that has scored at least 31 points in all 5 games while averaging 41.2 PPG.  Miami transfer Shane Morris is lighting it up at the quarterback position, and the rushing offense has really gotten going too.  I like their momentum coming into this game and simply think they are the better team and shouldn’t be catching points.  Bets against favorites of 3 to 10 points off a close road loss by 3 points or less, with a winning record playing another winning team are 39-13 ATS since 1992.  Take Central Michigan.

7* Temple/FIU NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Temple -6.5 

The Key: This is one of the bigger strength of schedule differences of any bowl game.  Temple play the much tougher slate of games.  And after struggling to start, they made the switch at quarterback and have finished strong.  They have won 3 of their last 4 with their only loss coming to unbeaten UCF to get to 6-6 and bowl eligible.  This Temple senior class has never won a bowl game and will be motivated to do so after getting upset by both Toledo and Wake Forest the past two seasons.  FIU went 8-4 this season, but only 2 of the wins came against bowl teams in Marshall and WKU.  Their 4 losses all came by 7 points or more, including 3 by 20-plus points against the better opponents they faced.  They lost by 44 to UCF and by 28 to FAU.  I think Temple is only a notch below those 2 teams.  Temple is 7-0 ATS after allowing 125 or fewer passing yards over the last 2 seasons.  The Owls are 15-3 ATS after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons.  Temple is 11-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses that allow 58% completions or worse over the last 2 seasons.  The Owls are 6-0 ATS in road games versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.9 or more yards per play over the last 3 years.  The Owls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. C-USA teams.  The Golden Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.  FIU is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 non-conference games.  Take Temple. 

7* Akron/FAU NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 66 

The Key: Florida Atlantic gets too much credit for its offense and not enough for its defense.  The Owls have held each of their last six opponents to 28 points or fewer, including 17 and 12 points allowed in their last two contests.  Akron is one of the worst offensive teams that they will have faced this season.  The Zips only average 23.6 points and 330 yards this season.  They do play decent defense and should do enough to slow down the Owls.  The Zips give up 26.3 points per game.  Akron is 10-3 UNDER in all games this season.  The Zips are 8-1 UNDER off a loss by 17 points or more over the last 3 seasons.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Zips last 10 road games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Owls last 6 December games.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Oregon/Boise State ABC *HEAVY HITTER* on Oregon -7 

The Key: Oregon was 6-1 and averaged 51.2 points in games Justin Herbert started this season, while going 1-4 and scoring 15.0 points in games he was sidelined.  That’s all you need to know about this game.  The Ducks will hang a big number on the Boise State Broncos, and they won’t be able to keep up. Take Oregon. 

7* Akron/Toledo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Akron +21 

The Key: The Toledo Rockets cannot be 3-touchdown favorites in the MAC Championship Game.  They beat Akron 48-21 at home earlier this season for a 27-point victory.  But the Zips have improved since then and this game will be on a neutral field, and they’ll want revenge from that defeat.  They also have a more electric quarterback running the show now in freshman Kato Nelson, who has thrown 6 TD’s against 2 INT while leading the Zips to the MAC East title down the stretch.  He also adds a dual-threat element with 167 rushing yards and a score.  MAC dogs of 12 or more in championship games are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 tries.  The Zips are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  The Zips are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Akron. 

7* Stanford/USC NCAAF Friday Night Lights on USC -3.5 

The Key: The USC Trojans have had 2 weeks to get ready for Stanford after receiving their bye last week.  The Cardinal are on a short week after a tough game against Notre Dame in which they trailed into the 4th quarter Saturday night before the Fighting Irish gave the game away with 3 turnovers.  The situation favors the Trojans, who have already beaten the Cardinal 42-24 while racking up over 600 yards of total offense against them in their first meeting this year.  The Cardinal are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Take USC. 

7* NCAA Football Game of the Year on Temple -3

The Key: The Temple Owls sit at 5-6 and one win short of a bowl berth.  They will be hungry to get that 6th victory here against Tulsa, a rebuilding team that is just 2-9 on the season.  The Owls should be bigger favorites here.  After beating both Navy and Cincinnati, they lost 19-45 to unbeaten UCF last week.  But that was a misleading final as they actually outgained the Knights and held them to 384 total yards, but they lost the turnover battle 5-0, which was the difference.  Tulsa's biggest game came last week when they fell just short 20-27 at South Florida.  They won't be nearly as hungry to win this week.  I think the line value is with Temple due to last week's results from these two teams as the scores weren't indicative of the kinds of games they were.  Temple is 6-0 ATS after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers over the last 2 seasons.  Tulsa is 0-6 ATS in home games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.  The Owls are 11-1 ATS versus poor defensive teams that allow 425 yards/game or more over the last 3 seasons.  Take Temple.

7* Cal/UCLA NCAAF Friday Night Lights on California +7

The Key: The California Golden Bears are 7-4 ATS this season and have been consistently undervalued.  They gave Stanford all they wanted on the road last week as 14-point underdogs in a 14-17 loss.  They had a bye coming into that game, so they should still be fresh for UCLA here.  The Bruins have been overrated all season and are 5-6 SU & 4-7 ATS.  It's likely Jim Mora will be fired at season's end.  The Bruins put a lot into their 23-28 loss at USC last week, and they won't be nearly as motivated to play Cal this week.  The Bruins will have played for a 7th straight week here and will be the more tired team on this short week.  The Golden Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Bruins are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS win.  Take California.

7* Big 12 Game of the Year on Kansas +38

The Key: The Oklahoma Sooners are coming off two straight massive wins against their top two contenders in the Big 12.  They beat Oklahoma State 62-52 and TCU 38-20.  Off those two huge wins, it's only human nature for them to suffer a letdown this week.  I'm not saying they'll lose to Kansas, but they certainly won't be focused enough to beat them by more than 38 points.  Kansas is improving down the stretch going 2-1 ATS in its last 3 games.  It only loss 20-30 at home to Kansas State as 25.5-point dogs and gained 482 total yards on the Wildcats.  The Jayhawks only lost 27-42 at Texas last week despite committing 4 turnovers.  That's a great showing against a good Texas defense.  The Jayhawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 November games.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Kansas.

7* EMU/Miami Ohio MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami -2.5

The Key: The Miami Redhawks need to win their final 2 games to make a bowl game.  I like their outlook now with Gus Ragland back at quarterback.  He returned from injury last week to lead the Redhawks to a 24-14 home victory over Akron, throwing 3 touchdown passes in the process.  The Eastern Michigan Eagles are 3-7 and have no hopes of making a bowl game now.  The motivation and the situation really favor the Redhawks, who have outgained 8 of their 10 opponents this season.  That is the sign of an 8-2 team, not one that is just 4-6 right now.  Take Miami Ohio.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Utah +1.5

The Key: Salt Lake City is one of the toughest places to play in college football.  Utah Utes' fans are right on top of you, and it makes is a heck of a home-field advantage.  Washington State is 1-2 in true road games with its only win coming against banged-up Oregon.  The Cougars were blown out by mediocre teams in California 3-37 and Arizona 37-58 in their other two road games.  Mike Leach is 0-9 ATS after having won 8 or more of his last 10 games in all games he has coached.  He has lost in this spot by 14.7 PPG on average.  The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.  Take Utah.

7* BYU/UNLV NCAAF Friday Night Lights on UNLV -2.5

The Key: What more could possibly go wrong for BYU?  The Cougars are 2-8 on the season and just lost starting quarterback Tanner Mangum to a torn Achilles last game.  Their interest level is at an all-time low right now.  UNLV, on the other hand, is 4-5 with a legitimate shot to make a bowl game.  The Rebels have put themselves in this position by winning their last two.  They won 26-16 at Fresno State as 21.5-point dogs, and beat Hawaii 31-23 as 8-point home favorites.  Now they basically just have to win by a field goal to cover against BYU tonight.  The Cougars are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The Rebels are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  Take UNLV.

7* EMU/CMU MAC Game of the Week on Eastern Michigan -2

The Key: The Eastern Michigan Eagles have been a hard-luck team all season.  They are just 3-6, but all 6 of their losses came by 7 points or less and by a combined 23 points.  They took out their frustration with a 56-14 beat down of Ball State last week.  And they still have a very good shot to make a bowl game with winnable games against Central Michigan, Miami Ohio and Bowling Green still to come.  The Eagles are 10-1 ATS in all road games over the last 2 seasons.  They get the win and cover here against Central Michigan.  Take Eastern Michigan.

7* Bowling Green/Buffalo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -7.5

The Key: The Buffalo Bulls have been a hard-luck team this season.  They are just 3-6, but 4 of their 6 losses have come by 4 points or less.  They are clearly better than their record.  They still have a chance to make a bowl considering they host Bowling Green and travel to Ball State next week, which should get them to 5-6 with Ohio at home in their finale.  Ohio may have nothing to play for in that game.  So the outlook for getting to a bowl game is still pretty good.  Bowling Green is just 2-7 with its only wins coming against Kent State and Miami Ohio.  The Falcons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The Bulls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall, including 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.  Take Buffalo.

7* Big Ten Game of the Year on Michigan State +10

The Key: Penn State is a bad spot here.  They are deflated after blowing a big lead to lose to Ohio State 39-38 last week.  And after back-to-back emotional games against Michigan and Ohio State, they won't have much left in the tank here.  Michigan State only has one Big Ten loss and is still very much alive to win the conference.  I think the Spartans come to play today and pull off the upset.  The Spartans have outgained 7 of their 8 opponents this year and are one of the most improved teams in the country.  Penn State is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 3 seasons.  Michigan State is 7-0 ATS in home games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.  Take Michigan State.

7* UCLA/Utah NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah -7

The Key: Josh Rosen has a hand injury and will be a game-time decision tonight.  I would like Utah at -7 whether or not he plays, but if he doesn't it would obviously he would be a huge bonus.  Rosen hasn't practiced all week.  The Utes are hungry for a victory after losing 4 straight against a brutal schedule of Stanford, USC, ASU and Oregon.  Playing in the friendly confines of Salt Lake City tonight should help them get back on track.  The Bruins are 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games and have been overvalued all year.  They don't play any defense, giving up 37.6 points per game overall, including 49.2 points per game on the road.  They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS on the road this year and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games overall.  Take Utah.

7* Miami/Ohio MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +10

The Key: The Miami Ohio Redhawks were expected to contend for a MAC title this year after going 6-0 over their final 6 regular season games last year.  They brought back 17 starts from that team.  So their 3-5 start comes as a bit of a surprise, and it has them getting zero respect from the books right now.  Conversely, Ohio is coming off back-to-back blowout wins over Bowling Green and Kent State and getting a lot of love.  But this is a team that lost to Central Michigan 23-26 at home prior to those two wins against MAC bottom feeders.  A big reason for the Redhawks' struggles is that they have been without starting QB Gus Ragland, who is a game-time decision tonight and may return since they had extra time before this game after last playing on November 21st.  The Redhawks still have a shot at a bowl game and will be fighting tooth and nail to get back to one.  The Bobcats are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.  The Redhawks are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games.  Take Miami Ohio.

7* NCAAF Blowout Game of the Year on Florida Atlantic -6.5

The Key: The Florida Atlantic Owls are absolutely rolling right now.  And the markets haven't caught up to them yet.  They still haven't caught up to them this week.  They have gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.  They get quick-strike touchdowns that their opponents can't get.  It's an FAU team that has hung 58 and 69 points in their last two games.  Western Kentucky has been getting too much respect in the betting markets all season with a 1-5-1 ATS record.  They have some awful performances against bad teams, including their 35-31 win over Old Dominion, the same ODU team that FAU waxed 58-28.  Take Florida Atlantic.

7* Conference USA Game of the year on Louisiana Tech -2.5

The Key: The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are in a good spot here coming off their bye week.  They are just 3-3 this season, but they have suffered two 1-point losses this season both on the road at South Carolina (17-16) and UAB (22-23).  But this team has been a great bet at home through the years.  LA Tech is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games off an upset loss as a favorite.  The Bulldogs are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 home games off two straight unders.  Take Louisiana Tech.

7* MAC Game of the Year on Akron +13

The Key: I'm going to fade Western Michigan in this spot Sunday.  The Broncos are coming off a 7-overtime 71-68 victory at Buffalo.  I'm just not sure what they have left in the tank now, and not only do they have to win, but they have to win by 2 touchdowns to cover the spread against a game Akron team.  This is an Akron team that has been competitive in every game outside of its Power 5 opponents in Penn State and Iowa State.  But WMU didn't fare well in its two Power 5 games either against USC and Michigan State.  I really think this game will be closer than the oddsmakers expect.  The Zips are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Akron.

7* Clemson/Syracuse ACC Total of the Month on OVER 57

The Key: Look for a shootout in this ACC showdown between Clemson and Syracuse tonight.  Dino Babers has brought his up-tempo game to Syracuse and they're having some success with it.  They are scoring 32 points per game and averaging 467 yards per game this season.  And they've played some great teams in LSU and NC State.  Their defense leaves a lot to be desired, so a Clemson offense that is averaging 35 points and 471 yards per game should have its way.  The Tigers hung 54 points on the Orange last year.  But the Orange lost starting QB Eric Dungey in the first quarter of that game.  Dungey is back healthy this season and playing very well.  Clemson is 8-0 OVER in its last 8 games as a road favorite of 14.5 or more.  Take the OVER.

7* SEC Game of the Year on Texas A&M +27

The Key: Alabama has won its last two games by a combined score of 125-3.  It's safe to say the betting public is all over them now, which has inflated this number on the road against Texas A&M this week.  The Aggies could easily be 5-0 if not for blowing a massive lead against UCLA in the opener.  And Kevin Sumlin has found a way to be competitive against Nick Saban in recent years.  The Aggies have only lost by more than 19 points once in their last five meetings since 2012, and that was on the road.  Defensive coordinator John Chavis has turned this Aggies stop unit into a respectable one.  And what can keep Texas A&M in this game is a run defense that is only giving up 96 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry this season.  Bets on home dogs of 14.5 or more points off two or more consecutive wins, with a winning record on the season are 40-11 ATS since 1992.  Take Texas A&M.

7* Boise/BYU ESPN Friday Night Lights on BYU +9

The Key: The BYU Cougars are a prideful team and clearly aren't happy with their 1-4 start.  They gave the game away against Utah State by committing a ridiculous 7 turnovers last week.  They held Utah State to just 288 total yards to prove that their defense isn't broken.  Boise State just can't be laying this kind of price on the road tonight with what we've seen from them so far.  They lost their last game 23-42 at home to Virginia as 14-point favorites, failing to cover by 33 points.  The home team is 6-0 SU in the last 6 meetings.  The Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Boise State.  The Broncos are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Boise State is 0-7 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 of its last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.  Take BYU.

7* Louisville/NC State ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on NC State +4.5

The Key: Louisville is just a one-man show with Lamar Jackson.  He has a shaky offensive line, and now he's without his best receiver in Jaylen Smith due to a wrist injury.  That makes this a bad matchup against NC State, which has one of the more underrated defensive lines in the country and NFL talent up front.  Ryan Finley actually has a better QBR than Jackson this season.  Finley has thrown 9 touchdowns and zero interceptions on the year.  It's revenge time after NC State was blown out 13-54 at Louisville last season.  It was a clear flat spot for the Wolfpack after they had lost in overtime to Clemson 17-24 the previous week.  They didn't even show up.  They will Thursday night in front of a packed home crowd to claim their revenge.  Take NC State.

7* Mountain West Game of the Year on Fresno State -9

The Key: I think the Fresno State Bulldogs are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They have been undervalued in the markets, going 3-0 ATS in their 3 games this season.  They won 66-0 over Incarnate Ward, then had to play Alabama and Washington in back-to-back weeks.  So their bye week came at the perfect time last week, and now they'll be fresh and ready to go in their Mountain West opener.  Nevada is clearly not any good this season, going 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS.  They lost at home to Idaho State as a 32.5-point favorite, then were punked 7-45 at Washington State the last two weeks.  The Wolf Pack come in on normal rest and won't be nearly as fresh as Fresno.  Jeff Tedford is one of the best offensive minds in college football, so look for Fresno to score at will here against this suspect Nevada defense.  Fresno is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games.  The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games.  Take Fresno State.

7* Miami/Duke ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Duke +7

The Key: Duke has been grossly underrated to start the season. The Blue Devils are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS, winning all four games by double-digits over NC Central (60-7), Northwestern (41-17), Baylor (34-20) and UNC (27-17).  I think they continue being underrated here as 7-point home dogs to Miami.  The Blue Devils have played the Hurricanes tough at home, not losing once by more than 7 points in their last 3 home meetings.  Take Duke.

7* Arkansas/Texas A&M SEC West Game of the Year on Arkansas +3

The Key: The Arkansas Razorbacks are coming off a bye week.  So they've had two full weeks to get ready for Texas A&M.  And boy, do they ever want revenge on the Aggies.  They have lost 5 straight meetings with Texas A&M over the last 5 seasons, including two of the last three in overtime.  The Aggies are clearly down this season and vulnerable, so this is their chance to have their revenge.  They lost at UCLA in the opener, only beat Nicholls State 24-14 as 37.5-point favorites, and actually trailed UL Lafayette 21-14 at halftime last week as 23.5-point favorites.  Arkansas did lose to TCU, but the Horned Frogs are one of the better teams in the country, so that's not a bad loss.  The Aggies are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  The Razorbacks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a bye week.  Texas A&M is 0-8 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons.  Take Arkansas

7* Texas/USC Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas +16

The Key: Tom Herman has been an underdog 11 times in his career as a coordinator for Ohio State and as a head coach at Houston.  His teams have gone a PERFECT 11-0 SU & 11-0 ATS in those 11 games.  The Longhorns are flying under the radar now after getting upset by Maryland in the opener.  They got right with a 56-0 win over San Jose State last week.  Look for USC to have a bit of an emotional letdown here after their huge win over USC last week.  Take Texas.

7* Stanford/USC Pac-12 *HEAVY HITTER* on Stanford +5.5

The Key: The Stanford Cardinal simply own the USC Trojans.  They have gone 7-2 SU in the last 9 meetings, and both of their losses came by exactly 3 points.  That's important when you consider this spread is 5.5.  David Shaw is not only 8-2 ATS in his last 10 games as an underdog, but also 8-2 SU in those games.  USC did not look good against Western Michigan in the opener in a 49-31 win as they pulled away in the 4th quarter.  Stanford couldn't have looked better in its 62-7 win over Rice.  Plus the Cardinal have had 2 weeks off since that game to get ready for USC.  The Trojans allowed a ridiculous 263 rushing yards to Western Michigan.  The Cardinal are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 trips to USC.  Take Stanford.

7* GA Tech/Tennessee ACC vs SEC *HEAVY HITTER* on Tennessee -3

The Key: Tennessee has a big edge in talent over Georgia Tech.  Butch Jones is a master recruiter and he has finally put the Vols back on the map.  They were the best team in the SEC East last season as they beat Florida, but played a brutal schedule and suffered a couple of upsets in letdown games.  Georgia Tech lost its best triple-option QB maybe ever in Justin Thomas to graduation.  That offense won't click as well without him.  The Vols are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.  They have dominated the bowl games under Jones, and they will make easy work of this middle of the road ACC team here Monday night.  Take Tennessee.

7* NCAAF Game of the Week on Illinois -6.5

The Key: The Illinois Fighting Illini were in a clear rebuilding year last season under Lovie Smith.  They went just 3-9 and now are getting no attention heading into 2017.  These are the teams I like to back.  Smith will be more successful in year two.  The Fighting Illini open as only 6.5-point favorites over a middle-of-the-pack MAC team.  The Illini clearly have more talent, and I look for that to show on the field here Saturday.  This defense returns 4 of the top 5 tacklers from last year and will be better.  The offense should hold its own, especially on the ground with both Kendrick Foster (5.7/carry) and Reggie Corbin (6.1/carry) back to lead the way.  Leading receiver Malik Turner is back, as is Mike Dudeck, who has over 1,000 receiving yards as a freshman but missed last season with a torn ACL.  Ball State only has 4 starters back on defense after giving up 30.1 points and 470 yards per game last season.  The Illini should have plenty of success on the ground and through the air against their soft D.  They'll easily win by a TD or more.  Take Illinois.

7* NMSU/ASU Non-Conference *BAILOUT* on Arizona State -22

The Key: The Arizona State Sun Devils are flying under the radar heading into 2017.  They had won 10 games in back-to-back seasons in 2013 and 2014, but slipped to 6-7 in 2015 and 5-7 in 2016.  They opened 5-1 last year but lost their final 6 games.  But this is a team that returns 13 starters after having just 10 back last year.  The offense will be one of the best in the Pac-12, and the defense cannot be as bad as it was a year ago.  Following those 6 straight losses to close out last season, the Sun Devils have been hungry all offseason, and they're prepared to take out their frustration on lowly New Mexico State tonight.  The Aggies went 3-9 last season.  When they stepped up in competition they did not fare well.  They lost 42-62 at Kentucky, 6-52 at Troy, 23-55 at Idaho, 10-52 at Texas A&M and 7-37 to Appalachian State.  They have a lot back but this team is simply outclassed here.  Take Arizona State.

7* Hawaii/UMass NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on UMass -3

The Key: Last year UMass had just 9 returning starters and went from playing an easy MAC schedule to a much tougher Independent schedule.  They went just 2-10, but were only outgained by 97 yards per game.  They are a much more veteran squad this year with 15 returning starters and the schedule gets easier.  The Minutemen played Hawaii in the regular season finale last year.  The Warriors needed a win to make a bowl, so they had a lot more to play for.  But UMass gave them everything they wanted at Hawaii and only lost 40-46.  Now they get their shot at revenge right away in 2017, this time at home.  Amazingly, Hawaii is 1-23 in true road games over on the mainland over the past 4 seasons.  The Warriors are getting too much love here from oddsmakers.  Take UMass.

7* Alabama/Clemson National Championship *HEAVY HITTER* on Clemson +6.5

The Key: The Clemson defense just shut out a very good Ohio State offense.  I think the Tigers have the front seven that can make life very difficult for Jalen Hurts and company.  The Crimson Tide basically did nothing outside of a 68-yard run by Bo Scarbrough against Washington last week in which he broke like 10 tackles.  The offense only accounted for 17 points.  Hurts only threw for 57 yards in the win.  Clemson put up 550 yards on Alabama's defense along with 40 points last year.  Deshaun Watson is rolling right now and ready to cap off his Clemson career with a National Title.  Dabo Swinney certainly knows how to coach in big games, winning 5 of his last 6 bowl games while going 6-0 ATS despite being an underdog in all 6 contests.  The lone loss was that 5-point setback against Alabama last year.  I don't think Alabama can win by a TD or more, and I actually think Clemson wins this game outright, so a play on the money line would be a good bet as well.  Take Clemson.

7* USC/Penn State Rose Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on USC -7

The Key: The USC Trojans come into this game playing as well as anyone in the country.  They have won 8 straight with 7 of those victories coming by at least 13 points.  They have outgained 9 straight opponents, Sam Darnold is one of the best quarterbacks in the land, and the defense has really stepped up.  Penn State has overachieved this season.  It was a good story, but this team doesn't have the horses to matchup with an athletic, talented team like USC.  And the Big Ten is clearly overrated as we just saw their top two teams in Ohio State and Michigan get beat 31-0 by Clemson and by Florida State, respectively.  And I don't believe Penn State is as good as either Ohio State or Michigan, and USC is every bit as good if not better than Clemson and Florida State.  The Trojans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  Take USC.

7* Washington/Alabama Playoff *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +14.5

The Key: Chris Petersen is one of the best head coaches in the country that nobody talks about.  He has been a great bet in the underdogs role.  Petersen is 6-0 ATS as a dog with two or more weeks to get ready for an opponent.  He will give the Huskies their best chance to beat the Alabama Crimson Tide.  The Huskies rank in the Top 10 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  They are the best team that the Crimson Tide will have played.  This is too many points in a game that I think goes right down to the wire.  Take Washington.

7* Friday NCAAF Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on South Alabama +14

The Key: The Sun Belt has shown extremely well in these bowl games.  They are 4-1 as a conference.  Appalachian State beat Toledo as underdogs, Arkansas State topped UCF 31-13 as dogs, Idaho won 61-50 over Colorado as 15-point dogs and Troy beat Ohio 28-23 and covered as 4.5-point favorites.  The only loss was LA-Lafayette as 6.5-point dogs in a 7-point loss to Southern Miss.  I think South Alabama is getting way too many points here against Air Force.  The Jaguars have pulled some huge upsets already this season.  They beat Mississippi State 21-20 as 28-point road dogs, and they also upset San Diego State 42-24 as 19.5-point home dogs.  They are fully capable of beating Air Force here, let alone staying within two touchdowns.  Air Force is 0-6 ATS vs. poor rushing defenses that allow 4.75 or more yards per carry over the last 2 seasons.  I think the extra time to prepare will have the Jaguars ready for the Falcons' triple-option.  Take South Alabama.

7* Indiana/Utah Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Utah -6

The Key: The Utah Utes have been a great bowl bet for years.  They have gone 15-4 in their last 19 bowl games overall.  They are 9-1 under Kyle Whittingham alone.  The Utes have beat up on the Big  Ten as well, going 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six matchups with that conference.  Indiana barely made a bowl game at 6-6 after beating Purdue 26-24 in the season finale despite being 21-point favorites.  The Hoosiers lost their head coach in Kevin Wilson, and there is clearly some distractions around the program because of it.  Utah went 8-4 this season with its 4 losses coming by a total of 19 points.  The Utes were one of the best teams in the Pac-12 this year.  Take Utah.

7* Baylor/Boise Cactus Bowl *BAILOUT* on Baylor +7.5

The Key: We are getting extra points here with Baylor because they have lost 6 straight games coming into the bowl season.  There were getting extra points in their finale against West Virginia as well, covering as 17-point dogs in an impressive 3-point road loss.  Boise State is once again laying too many points as it has been all season.  The Broncos are just 3-9 ATS in their 12 lined games this year.  The Bears will be the more talented team on the field in the Cactus Bowl.  They boast the nation's No. 5 ranked offense at 543 yards per game.  They can run the football as well as almost anyone, and Boise State allows 180 rushing yards per game despite playing such a soft schedule.  Boise is 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games vs. good rushing teams that average 4.8 or more yards per carry.  Baylor averages 250 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry.  Take Baylor.

7* Maryland/BC Quick Lane Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston College +2

The Key: Boston College pulled the 17-14 upset at Wake Forest to punch its ticket to the postseason in the season finale.  The Eagles are very excited to be here after winning their final 2 games.  Their offense isn't great but was improved this year, and they had the 12th-ranked defense in the country according to our rankings.  Maryland doesn't do any one thing well and was a bad team this year.  Of the Terrapins' six wins, four have been against teams outside the Top 100, and hteir best win by far was against a 3-9 Michigan State team.  The Terrapins have no passing game and can only run the football on offense.  Well, that makes this a great matchup for the Eagles, who give up just 107 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry.  The Terrapins give up 218 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry this season.  Maryland is 0-6 ATS off a conference win over the last 3 seasons.  The Terrapins are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games following a straight up win.  The Eagles are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.  Take Boston College.