After grabbing a 2-0, Cleveland was humbled, as Houston scored the final eight runs of the game on Thursday night in the blowout. The Indians will send out their ace Corey Kluber (7-2, 2.36) and they hope he can go close to nine innings, since the Tribe's bullpen is the worst in the AL. Baseball bettors are uncertain about Cleveland and dropped them from -150 to -125 home favorites.  Dallas Keuchel (3-6, 3.43) take the ball for Houston and he is 4-1 with a 2.30 ERA against Cleveland. Though I really like Kluber, the Astros are 23-6 after a victory by six or more runs.

Despite Toronto being on a miserable 2-9 skid, they were lowered at sportsbooks from +130 to small faves at Philadelphia. Yes, the Jays Sam Gaviglio did not give up a run in his 2018 starting debut last Sunday, but he only got the start because of Toronto injuries. Zach Eflin (1-0, 1.56) has made three very good trips to the mound this season and he faces a Blue Jays batting order that scoring 3.1 runs per game in their last seven tries. I'll bet on the Phillies.

To me, Wednesday night’s game between Boston & Tampa Bay comes down to one thing…whether or not you think Boston’s David Price has turned the corner finally in 2018. He has put together solid back-to-back starts, including a complete game 8-strikeout performance in his last outing versus Baltimore. His team is currently playing well, having won five of six games, so literally, it would seem that the Red Sox chances tonight hinge on Price. On the other side, CHRIS ARCHER is 5-18 (-15.2 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. He has not fared well against the league’s best in other words. Let’s go with the Red Sox tonight as the short favorite.

This is the series finale and this is already the 12th time these two best clubs in the NL East are meeting. Atlanta holds a 7-4 edge and goes after its fourth series victory this year over Philadelphia. In spite of a pitching matchup featuring Jake Arrieta (3-2, 2.82 ERA) vs.
Luiz Gohara (first start of 2018), the Phillies have fallen from -150 to -120. The Braves bring a lot to this encounter with their 11-2 record as a road underdog of +100 to +150 this season. However, I like the bulldog in Arrieta off a subpar outing and he is 4-1 against the Bravos with 2.76 ERA against them (team's record). The Phillies earn the victory. 

Play On Home favorites against a 1.5 run line (HOUSTON) on a good fielding streak, 10 straight games with one or less errors, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP  is 1.10 or lower over his last 10 games. This RL system is 42-11 the last five years and the average margin of victory is 3.1 RPG over those 53 contests.

Though Matt Harvey (0-2, 6.17 ERA) has improved since wearing a Cincinnati uniform, both his starts have lasted only four innings. Part of that is his building up innings after jettisoned to the bullpen in New York. Bettors are giving Harvey and the Reds ample respect, lowering them from +135 to under +120. Pittsburgh's on a three-game losing streak after winning eight of nine. Let's try the Bucs with Cincy 5-18 when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.

For those who purchased NBA pick and lost yesterday, I have a small play on the Rockets at +8.5.

With Detroit losers of four in a row, including the opening game of this AL Central series, the Tigers are drawing little support in spite of having the better starter. Detroit is up 15 cents to +150 against Minnesota and have Matt Boyd (2-3, 3.19) facing the Twins scuffling Lance Lynn (1-4, 7.47), whose ERA is like a jumbo jet. Let's take a flyer on the road underdog to get back in the win column since they have a 14-5 record in the Twin Cities of late. 

With Arizona's offense really scuffling and Milwaukee 18-4 vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per contest, the Brewers have gone from -140 to over -150 depending on the sportsbook. The Diamondbacks will face a sizzling Jhoulys Chacin (3-1, 3.63), who has a 2.58 ERA over his last seven starts. Though the Snakes have done well in the role of underdog, they are 5-14 vs. a pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits a start. 

The Snakes major offensive slump continues and don't expect it to any better against one of their former pitchers, C. Anderson, who has a 1.88 ERA against them in four starts. The Brewers offense has been running hot and cold for a week and don't think their bats will sizzle against Z. Greinke, who is  8-0 UNDER as a road favorite of -110 or higher. With two strong bullpens, I'll back the UNDER. 

Phillies hot and so ins A. Nola and Cards are badly injured. 

Yankees LH starters and do again today. 

Pirates starter solid all season, the Padres Lyles is 26-66 as an underdog of +100 or higher in his career. (Team's Record) 

Braves have bee roughing up LH pitchers all season and J. Teheran is pitching to abilities.

Cubs raise record to 15-7 at Cincy.

A's make it three straight over Toronto.

Philly is playing well in winning seven of eight. J. Arrieta has always pitched well against the Cards and is 9-4 with 2.49 ERA against them. Nothing wrong with M. Wacha, but the Phillies are 12-2 having won three of their last four games and  Arrieta is 45-14 after giving up two or less earned runs in his last two outings. (Team's Record) 

Given we have Oakland's Brett Anderson (0-2, 8.16 ERA) vs. the Blue Jays right-hander Marco Estrada (2-3, 5.32), the OVER would seem to have real possibilities. My Game Estimators have this at 11.3 or 12 total runs.

Pittsburgh is on a sharp 7-1 run, is 14-6 at PNC Park and the Padres have not handled success well with an 8-25 mark having won three of their last four games the last two seasons. 

I like Koch for the Snakes and though they are not hitting, I'll forecast they do better after a victory and beat the Brew Crew.

The Indians J. Tomlin has been terrible and I'm not sure he finds it tonight against the Tigers either with the pressure on where he could lose his job. He and the Indians are only 6-14 in the first half of the season since last year and F. Liriano has performed better than expected and he's 15-7 as a home underdog of +100 or higher. (Team's Record) 

The Bucs won both games on the South Side last week and the WHITE SOX are 2-14 having lost 4 of their last 5 games this season. 

Take the fact Boston is 11-1 revenging two straight losses as a road favorite and add in AL favorites with a money line of -125 to -175, scoring 5.1 or more runs/game, against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or lower, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better on the season are 36-7, 83.7% and it's easy to understand why I'm on the Red Sox.

The Cubs reasoning is similar to yesterday. Pounding the ball, Sox start stinks and massive differences in the bullpens. 

The Mets are 14-6 in Philly and J.deGrom and teammates are 10-1 against the Phils. 

The Braves S. Newcombe has been in great form and his team is 9-2 in day games, while Miami is 16-42 after having lost three of their last four games.

Blake Snell (4-2, 2.40 ERA) of Rays pitching well, Dylan Bundy, not so much with ERA of 19.0 in last three starts. The Orioles might be the worst team in baseball and the Rays win. 

St. Louis punishing bad teams and they are 11-0 when playing clubs with a win percentage of 38% or less this season. 

J. Samardzija (6.62 ERA) is just awful the Pittsburgh is really swinging the lumber. In addition, NL favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (PITTSBURGH) hitting .255 to .269, against a pitcher with ERA of 5.70 or higher, with an on-base percentage of .393 or better over their last three games are 52-13, 80.0%.

Though D. Price might not be the pitcher he used to be and likes video games too much, he's 17-3 with a 2.40 ERA in 26 career appearances (25 starts) against the Blue Jays. In 16 career starts at the Rogers Centre, he is 11-1 with a 3.31 ERA. Though they lost yesterday, Boston is 15-8 on the and 21-8 vs. RH starters. 

The Cubs are pounding bad pitching and have a number of players that are hot. Toss in J. Lester is 45-7 as a home favorite of -200 or more (Team's Record), with his team winning by 3.1 RPG and the North Siders roll. 

Though the Rockies have dropped two straight, C. Bettis starts for them and he's been solid all season. In addition, Bettis is 14-4 at home when the money line is +125 to -125 (Team's record) and 17-5 when the total is 10 or higher the last 3 seasons. (Rockies record) 

Bonus Play: I have 3-teamer, Yankees-Indians-Astros and a winner plays just over 2 to 1 and lowers risk.

Color me bewildered. Philadelphia just swept San Francisco in a four-game home series, is taking on a Mets club that is in a 1-8 free fall and has Jake Arrieta (3-1, 3.15 ERA) pitching. Yet, the Phillies have fallen from -170 to -145! And it's not like New York is pitching Jacob deGrom, Dwight Gooden or even Tom Seaver, it's Steven Matz (1-3, 4.23)! Yes, the Metropolitans have won 13 of 19 in Philly, but they won't tonight!

I'm a big fan Miles Mikolas and I expect him to control the San Diego bats tonight. Though the Cardinals have lost two straight, that late night Sunday win against the Cubs threw them. With a day off, look for the Redbirds to be chipper again and swing the bats against Jordan Lyles, who is 11-37 when playing against a team with a winning record in his career. (Team's Record) 

Throughout his career, Zack Greinke has been the best home pitcher in baseball. For whatever reason and no matter where he's been, except his early days in KC, he just wins. He and the Snakes come into this clash with a 19-5 record at Chase Field and they are 11-1 in the first half of the season since last year. 

Washington is playing super baseball and is 11-1 on the road when the total is 7 or less. Match that with the Padres at 2-13 as a home underdog of +100 or higher this season and the Nats get the sweep. 

We have a flipped favorite in interleague play for tonight, as Atlanta has gone from -115 to +105. I disagree with this completely and here is why. After a lousy start, Julio Teheran (2-1, 3.65) has a 1.86 ERA over his past five outings and is pitching to his expected potential. Tampa Bay is still searching to find five competent starters and will try southpaw Ryan Yarbrough (2-1, 3.33) to try and slow the Braves lefty bats. It mostly worked for the Rays last night, but their offense failed them in 1-0 loss. Look for Tampa Bay to fall 1-10 after scoring and allowing three runs or less.

Dodgers playing like trash and the Snakes is 9-1 as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season. Plus, the D-Backs are 10-5 on the road and 11-4 vs. LH starters. 

Count me as no fan of the Nationals Jeremy Hellickson (0-0, 3.00 ERA), but I'm still flabbergasted Washington has sunk from -140 to a -120 favorite at San Diego, Sure Hellickson has an ERA over six against the Padres in eight starts. Nonetheless, the Friars Clayton Richard (1-4, 6.21) has an ERA of 7.34 since his Opening Day start. The left-hander has a solid 3.67 ERA vs. Washington, the lowest of any club he faced with a minimum of eight starts, but the Nats are on an 8-1 tear and win again. 

After losing five of six and scoring one run or less in that stretch, the World Series champs bats came alive and battered Oakland pitchers for 16 runs on Monday night. Baseball bettors are willing to take a chance on the Astros, moving them up 20 cents to -145, even if they are facing a smoking hot pitcher in Sean Manaea (4-3, 1.63). Houston counters with McCullers (4-1, 3.73), who has a 1.80 ERA in his past three starts. With the 'Stros 20-5 in road games after scoring nine runs or more and the Athletics 10-27 after a loss by six or more runs, time to back Houston.

Bucs bats started to come alive in taking series from Milwaukee and that continues on the South Side of Chicago against the woeful White Sox. 

Good time for Atlanta to leave home after being swept. The offense is still strong at 6.7 RPG in their last seven, while the Rays are 3.0 RPG in the same period. 

Taking Detroit because they have a superior starting pitcher with Michael Fulmer (1-2, 2.80 ERA)  vs. Matt Moore (1-4, 7.67) for starters. Though The Tigers are not a prize on the road at 6-11, the Rangers are a miserable 5-15 at home. 

C. Anderson gives the Crew six solid innings and the offense does enough to win and Milwaukee takes the series. 

Good spot for Chris Archer to pick up a W and the Jays M. Estrada has been brutal. 

Grienke one of the allt0time great home starters helps Snakes in upset.

After an awful start, Reds playing better and hook Marlins.

The Rockies are playing well on the road and have superior starting pitcher.

Nationals red hot and win.

The Braves are really playing well and besides, road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like SAN FRANCISCO, hitting .255 or less, against an NL starting pitcher with ERA of 3.00 or less, with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, are 33-96 the last five years.

Washington just swept Pittsburgh in four at home and plays host to another Keystone State team this weekend. Though Philadelphia has the better season record, they have lost three straight series, which is why the Phillies slipping from +135 to +120 is puzzling. I know the analytics crew hates Gio Gonzalez (3-2, 2.67 ERA) and he's 4-11 if the Nationals have won three or more in a row. (Phillies record). But I still like the lefty and see him taking down the slumping Phils in this divisional confrontation. 

Sean Manaea (4-2, 1.03) was named the AL Pitcher of the Month for April, but he and Oakland are not drawing much support in his first May start, at least from the betting public. Manaea and the A's were sent out as -145 favorites and after having time to bake, they have been lowered 30 cents on the ML to -115. What gives? Their opponent. Seattle is on a 6-1 burst and is averaging 6.1 RPG in this stretch. Though the Mariners are hot, Wade LeBlanc (0-0, 4.61), who will be making his first start since Aug. 19, 2016,  doesn't trip my trigger and the M's are 6-18 at home vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better the last two seasons.

As much as I deplore going beyond -150 on favorites this early in the season, sportsbooks IMO are forcing the issue. Though Atlanta is really playing well, I'm a big J. deGrom fan and he and the Mets are  36-16 after giving up one or less earned runs in his last outing. Back New York.

Seattle finished up road trip raking the ball and they have explosive lineup 1 to 9. King Felix is not what he used to be, but he is still 25-10 lifetime against the A's and his club is 9-1 after five or more road games. 

Much like with the Brewers winner last night, the Redbirds offense perks up facing inferior pitching and jumps all over the White Sox. Plus, favorites with a money line of -150 or more like the Cards, starting a pitcher who gave up one or less earned runs in his last two outings, batting .190 or worse over their last three games, are 41-7, winning by 2.3 RPG. 

Yankees playing great, but they had a night game and lose two hours on the time change coming east. Add in C. Morton has been completely more effective than S. Gray, who is 3-15 on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 the last two seasons (Team's Record), Houston is in the win column. 

Nothing like some Reds pitching to wake up the Brewers offense. Finnegan has been terrible for Cincy this season and Milwaukee is 15-6 away after a game with a combined score of four runs or less. 

Atlanta's offense continues to lead the NL and while not a big fan of Brandon McCarthy, He's been pitching well and oddsmakers are telling up the Phillies are not even a normal home favorite today.

I like how B. Lively is pitching for Philly and I cannot trust that Braves bullpen. I have a 46-14 system relating to Atlanta's bullpen woes.

The Snakes are playing great. P. Corbin is pitching like he did before blowing out an arm and I'm no fan of J. Hellickson. Also, NL road favorites with a money line of -125 or more, with on-base percentage of .350 or less, against a team with a good bullpen WHIP of 1.35, with an on-base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games are 35-12 the past few years.

Let's try old man river (B. Colon), who is pitching well early against a Toronto team that struggling and is 11-20 when having lost 4 of 5. 

A complete mismatch out west with the Mets  10-1 in road games when playing against a  team with a win percentage under 38% and deGrom and his mates 14-1 vs. teams outscored by one or more runs/game on the season.

With S.Manaea vs. D. Keuchel, there is a little chance for a shortage of run for this AL West battle. Add in Manaea is 14-4 UNDER after giving up one or less earned runs in last outing and the Astros lefty is 19-4 UNDER as a home favorite of -125 to -175, I'll take the lower score. 

With C. KLUBER on the mound on Friday's the last three seasons, the Indians are 10-2 against the run line, winning by 4.3 runs a game. 

This line movement is based on potential. If Seattle's James Paxton (1-1, 5.61 ERA) is on his A-game, he could limit Cleveland's offense and the Mariners might win. That possibility and the right amount of money from particular bettors has chased the M's from +125 to +105 against the Indians. However, you also have to consider Paxton is 0-3 with a 5.87 ERA against Cleveland and that the Indians Mike Clevinger (2-0, 1.75) has started the year extremely sharp. From this seat, there appears to be a lot of value with the Indians. 

Cards bullpen gave game away last night, which provides extra motivation for them tonight. S. Matz has not thrown well against the Redbirds and M. Wacha has been solid vs. New York. 

Cubs offense is clicking and the bullpen has been lights out. Lester has always thrown well against the Tribe and T. Bauer and mates have dropped six straight against NL teams.

T. Roark has always pitched well against San Fran and Nats offense should be ready to bust out. 

Z. Wheeler throwing well and my numbers point to closer game, worth a look on my watch. 

To borrow from the great Harry Carry "Holy Cow"! Cincinnati wins for just the fourth time in 22 games and all the sudden they have all kinds of support. With the Reds a 10-4 underdog winner over Atlanta last night, they have fallen from +130 home underdogs to +115. In truth, Cincinnati is not that bad of a team, though they are not close to .500 either. Overall, the Braves are a deserving favorite and starting pitcher Brandon McCarthy has thrown very well (3-0, 2.91 ERA) and his team is 4-0 in his starts. Take the Bravos.

 Impressive series against Boston and I think that has carryover for tonight in Texas. M. Moore pitched better for the Rangers the last time out, but he is hardly reliable with a 5-18 record in night games of late. (Team's record)

Boston bounces back from no-hitter to win.

Cards make it 11 straight over Reds.

Play On AL favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 like BOSTON, who are scoring 5.1 or more runs/game, against a starting pitcher with ERA of 3.50 or lower, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better on the season. In the past five years, these teams are 34-5!

Play Against NL road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 like CINCINNATI with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities, against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better on the season. In the past five years, teams like the Reds are 3-43 and the for this selection is they lose by 2.9 RPG.

Gray continues to pitch poorly for the Yankees and Estrada's off-speed pitches have kept New York off balance. Worth a look this early in the season.

Both starters in this game are throwing well, but both are gone but the seventh inning. That is where Cleveland's superior bullpen takes over and the Tribe knocks around a pedestrian pen for the Orioles. 

Boston is killing Angels pitching and is averaging over 10 hits a game since April 2nd. Besides remarkable 15-2 record, they are also 10-0 after allowing three runs or less in two straight games. 

I like J. Lester in this spot and though L. Weaver is a good looking young pitcher, he's been brutal against the Cubs. 

Not a Ricky Ray fan, but he contain weak San Fran offense and they are unlikely to have much either with Snakes bullpen. Giants are 2-15 in road games vs. a team with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.15 or lower and Ray and teammates are 15-2 vs. losing teams. 

Washington handed the Mets just their third setback of the season (all at home by the way) and baseball bettors are convinced it could happen again. The Nationals were released as +110 underdogs and are now sitting as -120 favorites. The analytics crowd has been crying in their wine glasses, as they started complaining Gio Gonzalez fastball had lost too much velocity in 2016 and said his demise was imminent. Gonzalez won 15 games last year and had a 2.96 ERA (WAR of 6.6 for those sipping chardonnay) and this year after three starts he's at 2.20. With the lefty 14-5 against the Metropolitans and his team having a 16-5 record at Citi Field over the past three years, let's take the Nats.

Rockies have  been great on the road again this season in April. Chad Bettis has pitched terrific and Colorado is 12-1 after a game where they stranded three or less runners on base.

J. Teheran continues to have problems pitching at Sun Trust in Atlanta. The Phillies are playing outstanding baseball and A. Nola continues to pitch very well. In eight starts again the Braves he has a 1.93 ERA and has never given up more than three earned to Atlanta. Contrast that to the Teheran and the Bravos at 3-16 in home games in the first half of the season the past three years, not hard to figure out where I'm going. 

Pittsburgh offense has slowed in Miami, but I think they will have some juice today and Ivan Nova has pitched well against better Marlins' teams than this one. Nova in his career is NOVA is 21-7 on the road with a money line of -100 to -150. (Team's record)

If anyone looks capable of slowing down the Angels bats it is the Royals Junis. Plus, the Halos Richards is walking a ton of hitters and is due to get racked. 

Like how Morton is pitching for Houston and Texas is 7-22 after scoring three runs or less in two straight games, losing by two runs a game. 

Dodgers should be foul mood after being swept at Arizona and awful two nights ago in a 16-6 home loss to the A's. Look for them to bounce and get back in the win column against the D-Backs with Maeda starting. 

Have to admit to being puzzled by this line. Seattle is the better squad and the A's are14-35 in road games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse. Take the M's.

Pittsburgh is one of the big early surprises in the early season with a 9-3 record and atop the NL Central. That's why it is puzzling to see them as a falling favorite at Miami or should I say the Virgin Islands' Marlins. (Google it) The Pirates opened at -150 and are down to at least -135 or lower depending on the sportsbook. I have to go with the better team here and that's the Bucs. 

Indians clicking on all cylinders and offense is cooking. Cleveland's pitching has also been unreal with 12 runs allowed in last eight games. The Tribe is 7-1 at home against Toronto the last couple years. Put another one in the win column for Cleveland. 

Plain and simple the Halos are mashing, scoring 6.6 RPG. With the Angels 21-6 after three straight wins by four runs or more and 13-3 after sweeping a three-game series on the road against a division rival, the Halos get the call. 

The Reds are averaging 3.1 RPG, the bullpen has an ERA of nearly seven and tonight's starter Luis Castillo is 0-2, with ERA of 9.00. Philly is playing well, starter Nick Pivetta has thrown well and Cincy is 2-13 after batting .200 or worse over a 3-game span the last two seasons. 

The Snakes are playing excellent baseball and NL favorites with a money line of -110 or higher, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP was 1.25 or better last season, with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.00 the last five games are 75-24 the past 20 years! 

The A's look very much like the team I saw in spring training and are 4-7. The Dodgers at 3-6 are playing like a club that thought they were going to win the World Series last fall. So what do you in this Cali confrontation? Those making large wagers have driven the Dodgers down 35 cents to -120. Why, it's like the Red Lobster combo platter. Oakland's Sean Manaea has pitched well early and Hyun-Jin Ryu has thrown like someone who has spent a lot of time on the DL in recent years. However, the Dodgers at this price at home are too good to pass up

World Series champion Houston has risen 20 cents to -155 over Minnesota, which is about as surprising as tonight Yankees/Red Sox game being nationally televised. The Astros have started 9-2 and are thought to have a real chance to repeat as champs. In spite of the 'Stros excellence, my Line Tracker system gives the Twinkies a 60% chance to win and I will side with the underdog.  

Good spot for Angels who are better in all facets against Texas. 

Those betting baseball are looking at Aaron Nola pitching for the Phillies tonight against a Cincy lineup that is averaging 3.3 RPG and they adjusted the total downward from 8 to 7.5. However, hittable Homer Bailey is starting for the Reds and the Cincinnati bullpen has an ERA of almost six. With Cincy about a +185 road underdog, let's consider the OVER with the visitor 21-8 OVER as road pooch of +150 or more.

Arizona is again starting the season hot at 7-2 and they have a decided starting pitching edge. Also, NL favorites with a money line of -110 or higher like the Snakes are 71-24 with a starting pitcher whose WHIP was 1.25 or better last season, with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.00 the last five games. 

Baltimore took three of four in the Bronx and that momentum continues at home against Toronto. The O's are 24-8 at home vs. an AL team with an on-base percentage .320 or worse. 

Clayton Kershaw has a 1.58 ERA against the Giants in all starts and Ty Blach of San Fran has a 1.51 ERA versus the Dodgers in five starts. Kershaw is 22-9 UNDER if his team is off a loss of late and Blach is 11-2 UNDER against the NL West. Play UNDER.

Houston has started the season fast and has a huge pitching edge in this Saturday contest. The Astros are 12-2 against the run line vs. NL teams allowing 4.5 or more runs game on the season the last two years, winning by 3.9 RPG.