Milwaukee beat St. Louis yesterday thanks to four home runs and Lorenzo Cain bringing a game-tying home run back with two outs in the 9th. The Brewers opened as a -125 favorite but have been bet down to a Pick (-105). The starting pitching matchup is close to even with Jack Flaherty vs. Freddy Peralta. One edge Milwaukee had yesterday that is gone is Josh Hader went two innings in relief and at best would pitch to one batter tonight. Look for the Redbirds to rebound and improve to 18-5 off a one-run loss.

Cleveland will not be as good a team as last year and start the season without Francisco Lindor or Jason Kipnes in the lineup. I know Corey Kluber is a great pitcher, but his team is 11-11 in 22 starts against the Twins and while it was last year, the Tribe was 16-25 when the money line was -100 to -150. The Twinkies in the home opener. 

Early in the season, I play underdogs nearly exclusively. Though it's early, a divisional game that will matter. The Cardinals roster moves have made them a better team. Miles Mikolas and the Redbirds were 13-3 on the road last year and 12-1 in day games. Milwaukee starter Jhoulys Chacin is 2-7 lifetime against the Cards with an ERA of almost 5.5. St. Louis wins. 

Fate and stupid baseball prevented the Dodgers from sweeping series. That won't happen Monday as I get back part of yesterday loss. Even with the win, Atlanta is 6-16 vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs a game in the second half of the season and 5-12 in home games against left-handed starters. With M. Foltynewicz and the Braves 1-9 playing against a team with a win percentage of 54% to 62%, this series ends today.

Let's start with this: Play Against NL underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (ATLANTA) scoring 4.5 or more runs/game, after scoring three runs or less in two straight games. (78-14, 84.8%, L5Y)

Plus, the Braves are 0-8 at home in a playoff game, when facing elimination. And the Dodgers are 40-25 vs. LH starters, S. Newcomb is 5-9 at home (Braves record) and W. Buehler is throwing great. 

Play On NL home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 like the LA DODGERS, who are scoring 4.7 or more runs a game, against an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or lower, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.25 or better. In the last 21 years, teams like the Dodgers are 46-4 in this spot. 

Though Oakland has a fine 47-34 road record, the Yankees are 53-28 at home. Because of injury the A's are doing the bullpen thing and while this has produced a good team ERA in those games in September, the fact remains they were 4-5. Luis Severino was not as good in the second half as in the first half of the season, yet his last three starts he had a 2.08 ERA and at home, he and teammates were 13-2 this season. Take New York.

Boston is 14-2 SU and 14-2 on the RL vs. the Orioles. The Birds are 2-10 against the run line after allowing 3 runs or less 2 straight games and their starter D. Bundy is 3-17 on the RL after dark, with his team losing by 4 RPG. 

The Reds come into this game 8-24 after batting .200 or worse over a 3-game span and they are 12-34 after scoring one run or less in last outing. C. Anderson has been a dependable starter for Milwaukee and he and the Brew Crew are 20-11 after dark and the Brewers are 49-25 vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. At less than 2 to 1 odds, back the Brewers. 

Boston is starting to hit again and David Price always pitches well against Toronto. Price is 20-3 lifetime against the Jays and 19-9 on the RL. Speaking of the RL, the Blue Jays are 5-13 against the run line in road games vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs/game on the season, losing by 2.8 RPG. The Red Sox, they are 18-4 against the run line vs. AL teams allowing 4.9 or more runs/game in the second half of the season, winning by 2.9 RPG.

Frankly, could come up with a hundred reasons to be against Baltimore, but let's go with these two. The Birds are 1-17 when playing with a day off this season and M. Fiers of the A's is 10-2 if his team is off a victory this season. (team's record) 

Tampa Bay is 8-2 against Toronto this season and is stroking the horsehide right now to the tune of 5.7 RPG. The Jays are not hitting, scoring 3.7 RPG in their last seven. The Rays are a solid 22-17 against LH starters and they are facing R. Borucki, who has a 10.03 ERA in his past three starts. Add in the Rays are 18-6 after a win by four runs or more this season and we should have a winner! 

C. Hamels is pitching fantastic and 35-40 percent of the crowd will be Cubs fans in Milwaukee, which will give it home crowd feel there. With Hamels 22-8 after giving up one or less earned runs in last outing the last two seasons (Team's Record), the Cubs are good value. 

I've made a lot of money backing the Giants D. Rodriguez, picking him in the right spots. With the D-Backs 2-10 revenging a shutout loss and San Fran 11-1 in home games after allowing two runs or less in two straight contests, it's the Giants.

The White Sox are having their best month of the season, but that takes a detour tonight. Chicago is at a huge disadvantage in the starting pitching matchup and the Yankees are 22-12 on the RL after a one run win and 25-13 on the RL after batting .200 or worse over a three-game span. New York by at least three runs. 

No matter the outcome of the suspended game, the Cubs come ready for the regularly scheduled afternoon encounter. Chicago has the second-best record against LH starters in the majors at 19-9 and they are the top scoring team at 5.7 RPG, winning by an average 1.6 runs. Fade the Mets.

With more questions than answers about Anaheim and Colorado knowing how to win on the road 37-29 +18.1 units, I'll surmise that J. Gray and Rockies set a franchise record with 10 consecutive victories when he is there starter. 

Cardinals bullpen was hammered, which gave me my lone loss yesterday. While A. Gomber has a name like you would read in some children's book, he and St. Louis are 5-0 in his starts, including 4-0 on the road. Contrast that with T. Anderson for Colorado, as he and the Rockies are 3-10 at Coors Field and Anderson and his teammates are 0-7 at home vs. an NL team with an on-base percentage .315 or worse this season.

St. Louis is blistering hot with an 18-4 record this month. At this exact moment, only Oakland is close to them of late. J. Gant is nothing great, but G. Marquez has an ERA over 6 at Coors and is backed by a poor bullpen and the Cards are 17-3 after a 5-game span where the bullpen ERA was 2.00 or better this season. 

Oakland got back on track yesterday and with M. Fiers I expect them to continue to roll. Let's keep this simple, The A's are 41-13 playing against a team with a losing record, the Twins are 12-30 playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season. 

Though not 100 percent healthy, Houston has as many able bodies as they have had in some time and just won a big series at Seattle. The offense has put together three double-digit hit games in their last four and seems to be coming back around. The money is on the Astros, who have been jettisoned from -140 to -165 against Andrew Heaney (7-7, 4.11) and the Angels. There is conjecture Mike Trout could return tonight, which would lower the line, but with the 'Stros 38-13 as a road favorite of -125 or more and 9-0 away after a game where they had 17 or more hits and they have to get the call.

For all intents and purposes, Tampa Bay has one true starting pitcher in Blake Snell and is 12th in the AL in runs scored, yet is six games over .500. Their unconventional approach has worked and they have seen their odds slide against the baseball best team from +140 to +125. Diego Castillo (3-2, 3.37 ERA) will be the Rays "starter" and Boston counters with Hector Velazquez (7-1, 2.74), who will have a somewhat similar role, but the Red Sox hope he goes a few more innings. Tampa Bay has a shot since they are 11-5 as home underdogs of +125 or larger, but the BoSox are 9-0 after seven or more home games.

I'm a big Kyle Freeland fan and he and the Rockies are 9-2 at Coors. Plus, Play Against NL underdogs with a money line of +150 or more like SAN DIEGO, hitting team .255 or lower, against an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or lower, whose batting .225 or worse over their last 10 games. Since 2014, these underdogs are 20-93! 

J. Gray is dialed in and really pitching well and he and his teammates have won his last eight starts. The Padres come into this contest 3-11 against the run line off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, while the Rocks are a convincing 11-2 against the run line after two straight games where they stranded five or less runners on base this season. 

Evidently, Boston is not as bulletproof as most thought, losers of three in a row for the first time since April and losing both games at home to Cleveland. With Carlos Carrasco (15-6, 3.33) taking the mound for the Indians, the Tribe opened as a -125 favorite but has slid to -110. Brian Johnson (4-3, 4.00) will be the Red Sox starter and he's 3-0 this month. It is hard to conceive Boston would be swept at home even against a pitcher as tough as Carrasco because of their 71-27 record against RH starters and 44-18 mark at Fenway.

Oakland is strictly play on or pass right now and they are playing with absolute confidence. They have won 14 in a row against losing teams. And road underdogs like Texas of +150 or more, hitting .260 or lower against an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or lower, with a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits a start, are 44-133 the last 21 years. 

Strong pitching matchup with C. Kluber vs. R. Porcello. Kluber should be able to tame Boston bats who have not scored in 17 straight innings and the Indians are  21-9 UNDER in road games having won four of their last five games. Kluber has also allowed just four runs in 22+ innings against the Red Sox. Porcello has been a bit up and down of late but pitched well in the big games and is 14-4 UNDER at home against winning teams of late. I'll call for a 4-2, 4-3 final score and an UNDER play. 

For MLB picks, Philadelphia has my vote. New York and Vargas are 2-12 in his last 14 starts and the Phils are 19-7 against losing teams. As long as Pivetta gets off to a good start, the Phillies bats should do the rest.

The Giants offense has been pathetic in averaging 2.3 RPG of late. The Cincy offense has come alive of late with 10 or more hits in four of their last five outings. San Fran starter A. Suarez has a 6.06 ERA in his last six starts. I'll take the Reds who are 8-2 after seven or more home games and the Giants 11-25 after four or more road games. 

Flying with the Redbirds again who are just playing better baseball them Milwaukee.  M. Mikolas has been a stud for the Cardinals and  NL road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like MILWAUKEE, hitting .255 or lower, against an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00), with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start are 39-103 since 2015. 

Seattle has a run differential of San Francisco and little by little they are creeping back to what they really are, a pretty good team, but not a playoff one. Since the sweep of Houston, the Mariners have scored 11 runs in four games and they are 1-8 in home games after a loss by six runs or more and a lousy 3-10 in August home games since last year. With R. Hill of the Dodgers 13-3 in road games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse (Team's record), it's L.A. 

Though the Cards win streak was snapped, I still like this team right now. Besides this, I think J. Flaherty is in better overall form than F. Peralta. The Redbirds have rebounded from tough defeats and is 13-3 after a one run loss this season. 

I was impressed with how Nix pitched for the Padres in his debut, but C. Buchholz has thrown well all year. After a good stretch against quality teams, San Diego was swept by the Angels and come into this contest,  2-13 at home after scoring four runs or less in three straight games and 1-12 at home games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.15 or better this season.

Real simple, Cleveland is hot in all facets, offense, defense and fielding. Reds offense has gone ice cold in averaging 3.0 RPG in last seven outings. Plus, NL underdogs with a money line of +150 or more like the Reds, scoring 4.5 or more runs a game, after scoring three runs or less in two straight games, are awful 14-68 since 2014. 

I'm no C. Archer fan and he's 2-10 in road games vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or less runs/game on the season the last two seasons. (Team's Record) In addition, J. Berrios and the Twins are 8-3 at home and Minny is 8-0 in home games vs. an NL team with an on-base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season the last two years. 

J. Barria pitching well for the Halos and I think he can contain Padres lineup. Angels offense is surviving without Trout and get this, they are 15-1 vs. an NL team with an on-base percentage .315 or worse in the second half of the season the last 20 years. 

Oakland slowed Seattle last night, ending their four-game winning streak, but Mariners cut a 7-1 deficit to one in the last two innings before falling. James Paxton (10-5, 3.63) will try and bring Seattle closer in the standings to the A's. Paxton struck out a career-high 16 batters against Oakland on May 2, throwing seven shutout innings and that is enough to change baseball bettor's minds, moving the M's from -110 to -125. Oakland will not go easy, since their starter, Mike Fiers (7-6, 3.40), has been, well, on fire, lowering his ERA more than a run the past two months. But Fiers has an ERA over 6 versus Seattle and the Mariners are 15-7 at Oak-Town. 

Philadelphia split a pair with Boston at Fenway and the lone defeat was 2-1. While the Red Sox are the best team in baseball, those betting baseball have dropped Boston from -150 to under -130 in the City of Brotherly Love. Rick Porcello (14-5, 4.17) is back to his Detroit days, with nobody certain with how he will pitch start to start. The Phils Nick Pivetta (7-9, 4.51) is not exactly like taxes (something you can count on), so that makes this another nasty pick. Let's take the best team in baseball, who is 43-20 on the road and know that Porcello and the BoSox are 10-0 in interleague action the last two seasons. 

M. Mikolas continues to shine for the Cardinals at 12-3 and he's one the top bets for pitchers at +7.3 units this season. St. Louis is playing excellent baseball right now and won five straight series. Washington should have swept the Cubs but their bullpen gave two away and last night's was a "Tommy Boy" special for the Nats, "That's going to leave a mark."

Another pitcher at the end of the line is B. Colon. In the last two years, the team's he's started for are 3-16 as an underdog of +125 to +175. Arizona woke up yesterday after two crummy games at Cincinnati. Z. Greinke pitches for the Snakes and this combo is 21-6 against losing teams.

M. Clevinger might only have a .500 record but he has a 3.37 ERA, but he's been even sharper of late and he's down to 2.69 ERA on the road. The Reds H. Bailey, he and his team are 1-14 in his starts this year and in last awful outing, he first blamed a faulty scouting report before kind of blaming himself. Good spot for Tribe scalping. 

Banking on D. Rodriguez to continue to pitch well for the Giants, who are 8-3 when he takes the ball. His success plays in this: road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like the Pirates, with a slugging percentage of .500 or better over their last three games, against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 2.50 over his last five starts, are 34-111 in since 2014. 

J. Arrieta is in top form and pitching like he has in the past in playoff mode. In his career, Arrieta is 47-17 after giving up two or less earned runs in his last two outings. (Teams record) While the Padres have played better of late, they still have lost 13 of 15 at home and are 13-34  vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.25 or better this season. 

M. Boyd's numbers are nothing special for Detroit, but he and his teammates are 7-3 at home and he has a nice 2.93 ERA. The Twins are bringing up minor league pitcher K. Stewart, who's been better recently, but on the season has 4.47 ERA at Double and Triple A. I'll back the Tigers with the Twinkies 21-39 on the road. 

T. Williams has conceded two runs in his past four starts covering 22 innings for Pittsburgh. The Pirates offense had been in overdrive with 34 runs in their past four contests and hard to imagine T. Blach will slow them down for the Giants. Plus, the Bucs are a solid 17-9 on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. 

K. Freeland is the rarest of pitchers, he likes pitching at Coors and he's 7-2 with a 2.81 ERA in 10 starts there this season. His home ERA is the fourth best in the National League and it ranks as the lowest in Rockies history for a single season. With W. Buehler having an ERA over 5 on the road, the Dodgers scoring just 3.9 RPG vs. LH starters, the Rockies take Game 3 in the series. 

R. Stanek will be the Rays "starter" and maybe last two innings, but you should know his team is 0-6 on the road when that happens. S. Gaviglio has not won a game since May, but he has 2.90 ERA at home the Blue Jays have won four of his seven starts. Even with last night's shutout, the Jays are still averaging 5.0 RPG in their last seven and get the win. 

Padres starting a rookie pitcher and in truth, he's one of their better prospects, but they are 6-27 as a home underdog of +100 or higher this season. In addition, the Phillies fit a 96-31 system of mine tonight.

Extra large pitching disparity with Z. Wheeler against the Marlins J. Urena, especially in Miami. Plus, Marlins are averaging 2.0 RPG in their last seven games. 

Tanaka and the Yankees are 10-0 against the run line in home games vs. an AL team with a slugging percentage .410 or worse in the second half of the season the last three years. 

What I'm recommending is a Red Sox and Yankees parlay for tonight. 

It is turning into a lost season for the Nationals. With a chance to make headway, even with a victory today, the best the Nats can do is get a split. The Braves A. Sanchez has been stellar all year and he and his teammates are 6-2 on the road and he's 10-1 against Washington. G. Gonzalez has returned to his inconsistent ways of late and he's 5-11 against Atlanta. 

We all know how bad the Royals are and they are up against this system tonight. Play Against AL underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 like KANSAS CITY, scoring 3.6 or fewer runs a game, against a team with a bullpen ERA of 3.33 or lower, with 10 straight games with one or less errors. In the last 21 years these teams are abysmal 4-44 and most importantly, they are losing by 3.8 RPG. 

B. Johnson has pitched well for Boston and he's backed up by the most complete team in baseball. The Red Sox could have lost twice last night but did not, and are 21-4 vs. an AL team with a batting .265 or worse in the second half of the season. Toronto calls up some guy named Mike Hauschild, who on July 30th was released from the Astros Triple-A team. The Jays are 6-21 vs. teams averaging 1.25 or more HR's a game this season. 

The Angels have had their problems with LH starters and are 11-21 and will face one today. But the Tigers have dropped five straight, scoring eight total runs. The Big A has not been kind to the Tigers who have lost 23 of 30 there and 48 of 65. In the Tigers last 41 games they have won only 11 and they are 15 -40 on the road. The Halos offense is not much, but they have scored 60 runs in their past seven home games. 

Massive difference in starting pitchers with Z. Greinke vs. N. Pivetta. Whatever team Greinke has played for, when he's pitched at home, he awesome. How good, what about at 28-6 home games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse or 80-22 as a home favorite of -150 or more. (Team's Record) The Snakes are the play. 

Boston just swept the Yankees in four games, they have the best record in baseball by eight games, yet at this moment they are a falling road favorite to Toronto. The Red Sox have slid from -125 to -105 and the culprit has to be Drew Pomeranz (1-5, 6.56), who is trying to hang on to his starting job. Besides, it's not like Boston cannot get to Blue Jays starter Marcus Stroman (4-8, 5.63) and the Jays bullpen ERA is more than a run higher than the BoSox. Can Toronto win, certainly. But at this price the Sawx make sense and the Jays are 14-26 versus LH starters.

Though D. Rodriguez was fantastic in July for the Giants, C. Morton (12-2) has been special all season for Houston. While San Francisco can be a tough out at home, the champs are 39-18 on the road and 34-11 as a road favorite of -125 or more. Add in they are  21-6 in away games after allowing three runs or less in two straight games this season. 

This will take a little courage because of the size of the number, but look for C. Hamels and Cubs to come through. Some will say the lefty is not the pitcher he used to be at 34, my guess being a playoff contender will get Hamels excited again and he's20-4 vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or less runs a game in the second half of the season for his career. (Team's Record) Add in the Royals are 0-12 in home games vs. a team with a bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better, Cubs Win, Cubs Win.

This is more a play against H. Bailey, who is the Matt Cain of this time, a guy with a contract that a team cannot afford to just cut because he's terrible, even if that is what they prefer to do. The Reds and Bailey are 1-13 in his starts and Cincy is  8-26 in road games having lost four of their last five games. Finally, Bailey is 1-5 with a 7.22 ERA in seven starts against the Mets. It is his highest ERA against any team he has opposed more than two times. while N. Snydergaard is 3-0 with a 1.98 ERA in four starts against the Reds.

Orioles pitchers finally slowed Rangers bats yesterday but could not score themselves. Former Blue Jay D. Hutchinson will be the latest reclamation project to start for Texas and he's coming in with 23 scoreless innings at Triple A. I don't have to remind you how bad Baltimore is and I could write a novel about how terrible this team is. Let's take Texas to sweep with the O's 0-10 in road games vs. an AL team with a batting average of .255 or worse. 

C. Buchholz has rejuvenated his career and thrown well for Arizona. Though the D-Backs have split the first two games with the Giants, they have 22 hits and going back seven contests, they are averaging better than 10 hits an outing. With that they are 20-7 after two or more Over's in 2018. 

After losing opener today, Washington bounces back with J. Hellickson, who has a 1.50 ERA against Cincy in four starts. Tough to win two games in one day as a road underdog in both. 

After being whipped twice by Boston, the Yankees are taking a chance on Chance Adams at their starter. This seems to be asking a lot of a pitcher to win against the best team in baseball on the road. I have to admit I'm not a big N. Eovaldi fan, but the Red Sox are 26-5 in day games, 18-3 at home when having won three of four and the Yanks are 5-12 on the road when the total is 10 or higher.

After scoring six runs in three contests, Boston unloaded on Yankees pitching and hung 15 on the scoreboard Thursday night. When looking at Luis Severino's (14-4, 2.94) four-game stretch where he's been hit hard and Rick Porcello (13-4, 4.08) being up and down like a 14-year old at a Bruno Mars concert, the total jumped from 9 to 9.5. Both pitchers are capable of lockdown performances, but I'll agree with the line movement and these pitchers are a combined 30-9 OVER in trends I like to follow. 

With the Cubs playing mediocre baseball, this is the Cardinals or Pirates chance to gain ground on them and Milwaukee, as they open up this series. This opening contest has seen line moves both on the money line and the total. Pittsburgh is up 20 cents to -155. Chris Archer (3-5,4.31 ERA) makes his Bucs debut and his new teammates have won 16 of their last 20. John Gant (3-4, 3.49) will toe the rubber for the Redbirds. I will go for the upset with the Cards with Pitt 0-10 after a loss by six or more to a division rival. 

Not 100% sold on M. Montgomery, but he has 2.89 ERA at Wrigley as a starter this season and the Padres are scoring 3.1 RPG of late. R. Erlin had an ERA over 12 before being pulled as a starter but is forced to start because of injury on a team that was 5-20 in July. The Friars are a dismal 13-32 as an underdog of +125 to +175 this season. 

I actually like watching A. Heaney pitch, but he and the Angels are 2-7 on the road and the lefty has a 5.40 ERA away from home. Besides this, the situation set up well for Tampa Bay, who is 15-4 in home day games and 9-1 at home vs. an AL team with a batting average of .265 or worse in the second half of the season. 

After being swept in Colorado, the A's have gotten right back on track, taking the first two games of the series. I'll say they get the sweep since Oakland is  8-0 vs. teams outscored by 0.5 or more runs a game in the second half of the season and 9-0 if they have a losing record. Toss in the Jays are facing S. Manaea and they are 12-25 vs. lefties. 

S. Gray is coming around and we know how bad Baltimore really is. In addition, run line underdogs with an on-base percentage of .375 or better over their last five games, against an opponent, starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing are 6-33 the last 21 years, losing by 3.7 RPG. 

After an OVER last night, these are two hot offenses. Texas is scoring 7.4 RPG in there last seven outings and the Snakes are at 5.3 RPG. Both starting pitchers have ERA's over 4.75 and though the bullpens are strong in road/home scenarios, I'll forecast at least 10 runs tallied.

San Diego is 5-19 this month and  2-12 in home games after scoring four runs or less in three straight games this season. 

Colorado is playing excellent baseball on 18-6 run and just swept one of the hottest teams in Oakland. T. Anderson has been pitching really well for the Rockies and has a 1.86 ERA in his last three starts. Anderson and his teammates are 7-0 in road games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse this season. Plus, the Rocks are recently 17-5 against teams with a winning record. 

We will start with the Padres are 8-27 and with last night's loss have dropped 12 straight series. C. Buchholz is pitching incredibly well for the Snakes and in his career is 23-9 in road games after giving up two or less earned runs in his last two outings. (team's record) We'll finish it off with the Friars 6-26 as a home underdog of +100 or higher this season. 

Washington cannot sustain anything. After three strong wins, they score once and lose last night and published reports had a lot of frustration bubbling up. I think they will come to play and are 41-18 after scoring and allowing three runs or less. J. Hellickson is 9-2 when the total is 8 to 8.5 (team's record) the last two years, while J. Urena and the Marlins are 5-15 this season and 3-10 at home. 

Let's start with the Snakes are averaging 5.7 RPG since the All-Star break. Next, let's mix in P. Corbin Corbin has a 2.23 ERA in his last six starts, conceding no home runs and he and his mates are 5-1 in his last six road starts. Let's blend in the Padres are 10-21 vs. LH starters and 2-14 as a home underdog of +125 or more this season. 

V. Velasquez has been very good in recent starts for the Phillies and he has a sharp 2.42 on the road. M. Harvey is pitching like, well like he normally does and is much less effective of late and in the past three years is 8-19 when the money line is +125 to -125. (Team's Record) Lastly, underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher, with a slugging percentage of .500 or better over their last three games, against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 2.50 over his last five starts, are 61-163 since 2014. 

Both Oakland and Colorado are playing well, but I trust S. Manaea and A's bullpen more than I trust K. Freeland and the Rockies pen. Also, hard to overlook the Athletics are 35-21 on the road and the Rocks are a .500 home team. 

Texas is folding up like a tent, while Houston's D. Kuechel is starting to find his groove. The Astros are punishing bad teams and are 32-6 vs. clubs that are outscored by 0.5 or more runs game on the season, winning by 3.3 RPG. 

Dodgers clubbing home runs and are averaging 5.9 RPG in last seven. Atlanta has not played well in awhile and has never had much success with C. Kershaw. The Braves are 12-29 in home games after scoring three runs or less in two straight games. 

After winning 11 in a row, Pittsburgh has dropped two straight and will look to avoid a third consecutive setback. Enough bettors are not so certain the Pirates will, even being good-sized home favorites. The Bucs has slid from -170 to -150 against the Mets and are counting on Ivan Nova (6-6, 4.28 ERA) to turn the tide. Nova is 4-1 with a 3.40 ERA in eight starts since being reinstated from the DL and he is presumed to face a seemingly washed up Jason Vargas (2-6, 8.60), who is coming off the DL himself. Despite the Pirates 11-16 record versus LH starter, I'll side with them with New York 1-8 after a game with a combined score of 15 runs or more. 

Going with better team here and road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 like MINNESOTA, with a slugging percentage of .500 or better over their last three games, against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA less than 2.50 over his last five starts, are a miserable 9-55 the last 21 years. 

Washington shows no signs of being anything more than .500 and they are only 6-11 after a win by four runs or more this season. T. Milone steps in as a starter, but the Marlins D. Straily has put together five really good starts, which is his tendency and why he is 17-7 (+14.7 Units) vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season the last three seasons. (Team's Record) 

J. Flaherty has been tough for St. Louis and he's going up a Cincy team that really cooled off in scoring just nine runs in their last four games. The Cardinals are 11-4 against the Reds this season including 7-2 when on the road. Cincinnati is 8-26 after a 5-game span with an OBP of .285 or worse, while the Redbirds are 12-1 after scoring four runs or less in three straight games this season. 

I realize the Rockies have been playing very well. Yet, I cannot overlook G. Cole and the Astros are 16-4 in his starts and Colorado with T. Anderson are 3-7 at Coors Field. Houston is an amazing 24-6 after three or more consecutive road games this season and for Cole's career, he is 27-6 as a road favorite of -125 or more. (Team's Record) 

After losing seven straight, Milwaukee has won two of three after defeating Washington last night. The betting action is on the total, up from 9 to 9.5.  Junior Guerra (6-6, 3.23) is off a rare poor outing and spent some time on the DL, but he's 13-1 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5 the last three seasons. He will face Jeremy Hellickson (4-1, 3.29), who has enjoyed an unexpectedly good campaign and he's 10-3 UNDER this season in his starts. My numbers come up to 8.3 for a total and I'll side with the UNDER. 

I'm coming right back with Oakland, who continues to shine. A's starter Frankie Montas is ready for action on the road and he and his mates are 4-0 in the traveling uniforms this season.  M. Minor has enjoyed a few good outings this season, but his team is 10-22 in home games against right-handed starters and is 2-12 at home off a loss by six runs or more to a division rival the last three seasons. 

As great as Aaron Nola (12-3, 2.30 ERA) has been all season, baseball bettors have decided he's not pitching for the better team. Philadelphia opened as a -115 favorite over L.A., but have been flipped to +100 underdogs. There is still time for this to jump around, but Kenta Maeda (7-5, 3.12) has pitched nearly as well as his counterpart, particularly of late. Though the Dodgers offense has generated at least 10 hits in six straight games, Nola and Phils are 8-0 at home and 9-0 vs. teams who strand 6.9 or fewer runners on base per game this season.

The A's continue to play great baseball with an 11-5 July record. B. Anderson is certainly not a great starter for Oakland, but C. Hamels has an ERA over 10 in his last three starts and is giving up a ton of home runs. Oddsmakers are expecting a lot of runs with the total at 10.5, which I think favors the A's who are 25-9 vs. teams outscored by 0.5 or more runs a game and if they have a lead after seven innings, they are an MLB-best 39-0! 

The Brewers have lost seven straight and have to face Clayton Kershaw tonight. Milwaukee has averaged 3.3 RPG in this dreadful stretch and faces an excited Dodgers club that is fired up to have Manny Machado. While C. Anderson for the Brew Crew has 1.67 ERA in his past three outings, he's 2-7 with a 5.44 ERA against Dodger Blue. (Team's record) For the clincher, Kershaw and his L.A. mates are 36-5 vs teams who strand 6.9 or fewer runners on base per game most recently. 

Philadelphia was not hitting much on the road before the break, but now back home, look for the Phillies to bust out. Philly is 30-16 at home and averages 4.6 RPG in their building compared to 4.1 away from home. Plus, starter Jake Arrieta (7-6, 3.23 ERA) is getting into his crunch time mode with a 1.89 ERA in his last three starts and he faces a faltering Padres team that has lost 16 of 21. 

With the Friars 21-43 vs. a team with a bullpen WHIP of 1.35 or better, who is 11-29 as an underdog of +125 to +175 this season, Philadelphia improves their home record. 

Atlanta's just not hitting and S. Newcombe is throwing like a tired pitcher. Arizona is 20-14 vs. LH starters and think about this; Z. Greinke is 59-19 vs. an NL team with an on-base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season for his career. (Team's Record) 

Philly is 22-9 having won three of their last four games and has their ace A. Nola pitching, who is 12-2. Nola and the Phils are 11-1 vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse and NL home teams like Miami, with a team on-base percentage .310 or worse on the season, with an on-base percentage of .375 or better over their last five games, are 16-43 in their next contest since 2014. 

Detroit has lost five straight and is 15-33 on the road. Houston is 15-4 in G. Cole's starts and they are 31-5 vs. teams outscored by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season, winning by 3.6 RPG. 

Colorado is playing well in winning 10 and 13 and are finally playing well at Coors having won nine of 12. I think they will continue to keep winning for at least one more night with their offense up to usual standards at home and the Mariners offense is scuffling in scoring only 3.7 RPG in their last seven. 

Neither Atlanta or Arizona is playing well, but I'll give the edge to Braves because of this. Though the D-Backs remain a decent play as an underdog, they are 6-16 after scoring two runs or less in two straight games and are 2-10 vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.05 or better this season. 

J. Guerra know how to pitch for Milwaukee and he can navigate a Pirates team that is averaged 3.7 RPG of late and he is backed up by a solid bullpen. Guerra and the Crew are a solid 16-8 when he pitches off a Brewers loss and they are 10-3 having lost three of their last four. 

Colorado had a big night Wednesday with 19 runs, but for the season they are 23-19 UNDER at home and when facing LH starters like R. Ray, they are 22-14 UNDER. According to reports, Ray had his best bullpen session of the season and could have a sharp outing. The Rockies K. Freeland is one the premier UNDER hurlers in baseball and is 19-4 UNDER when the total is 10 or higher and 16-4 UNDER is day games. 

Coming right back with the Redbirds. Neither starting pitcher is impressing anyone, thus, the edge goes to the better team, St. Louis in this case. The Cards are also really swinging the lumber, averaging 6.9 RPG in the last seven, while the White Sox continue to labor. Lastly, L. Weaver and the Cardinals are 8-0 at night on the road.

Coming right back with the Redbirds. Neither starting pitcher is impressing anyone, thus, the edge goes to the better team, St. Louis in this case. The Cards are also really swinging the lumber, averaging 6.9 RPG in the last seven, while the White Sox continue to labor. Lastly, L. Weaver and the Cardinals are 8-0 at night on the road.