Miami has been shut out nine times this season, are last in the majors in runs, doubles, triples, homers, on-base percentage and slugging. Tonight they face Jacob deGrom, which doesn't sound like the scoreboard will be flashing for the Marlins. Despite injuries, the Mets have managed to score 5.3 RPG in their last seven and New York is 10-1 off a one run loss versus a division rival (winning by 1.9 RPG). The Marlins are 10-31 and are losing by 2.3 RPG, take New York on the RL.

Pittsburgh and San Diego are actually glad to face each other as they both are off losing series against foes that are a nemesis to them. The Pirates are getting the call as the underdog mostly because of Trevor Williams. The Bucs right-hander is a grinder on the mound and he has 2.87 ERA on the road and Pitt has won four of his five starts. With the total at 7.5, Williams and company are 10-5 on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 (mostly as underdogs) and 13-5 after allowing 10 runs or more. Expect the Pirates to steal one in SoCal. 

Former Mariner Michael Pineda (2-3, 5.85 ERA)  is a shell of his former self. He still strikes out batters with regularity but his WHIP of 1.45 tells the story of a hurler whose allowed 49 hits in only 40 innings, 10 of which have left the yard. One guess who is second in the majors in home runs this season? That's correct, Seattle, the team Pineda is facing. The M's Eric Swanson (1-4, 6.35 ERA) does not miss many bats either and Minnesota is averaging 6.0 RPG in away outings and is 3rd in the bigs in home runs. The Mariners are 12-4 OVER when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season and 9-1 OVER when they are off two or more victories. Toss in Pineda is 20-7 OVER on the road with a money line of -100 to -150, the Twins and Mariners are going OVERboard. 

Michael Wacha might be 3-0 but his ERA of 5.35 says he received a lot run support from his St. Louis teammates. Based on how the Braves Mike Soroka (3-1, 1.21) has pitched this season, that is not likely to continue for Wacha. The Cardinals pummeled Atlanta 14-3 last night but are 7-17 in road games after two or more Over's. Lastly, NL underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like St. Louis who score 5.0 or more runs a game, against a team with a bullpen ERA of 4.50 or higher, with a cold starting pitcher whose ERA 7.00 or higher over his last five starts, are a mere 23-67 the last 22 years. Back the Braves.  

I know Texas has won four of Shelby Miller's (1-2, 7.89 ERA) seven starts, but that is because they have hit the crap out of the ball, nothing to do with him as the you can see with his ERA. In Miller's last start he walked only one batter and in his last eight starts after that, whatever team he's pitched for is 107. Granted the Royals are awful, but Danny Duffy has a 3.06 ERA in three starts and  2.89 ERA against Texas and the Rangers are a pathetic 5-14 on the road.

Caleb Smith has been dominant so far at 3-0 (Marlins 4-3) with a 2.11 ERA and 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings. However, he's getting a touch too much credit against a Tampa Bay team that finds ways to win. The Rays are 12-5 on the road and average 5 RPG (4.3 at home) and they are 8-3 vs. LH starters. Miami is 6-15 at home and this month is averaging a paltry 2.3 RPG. Once the Rays get into the Marlins bullpen (27th in ERA), they open up the game and win going away.

This morning, Seattle was a falling favorite against Oakland and for good season, they were outscored 34-7 in being swept at Boston and they have lost 12 of 14. However, at 21-23, that is more indicative of what kind of team the Mariners really are and tonight will use Yusei Kikuchi (2-1, 3.54 ERA). The M's left-hander has 1.15 ERA in his last three starts. Mike Fiers takes the ball for Oakland and pitchers coming off a nine-inning no-hitter are a below .500 bet in their next outing and the A's righty has a 6.91 ERA vs. Seattle in nine starts and his team has started 5-15 on the road this year. In addition, I have a system of mine that spits this out: Play on non-underdogs like SEATTLE after allowing eight runs or more in two straight games, against opponent after a loss by two runs or less. Since 2017, teams like the Mariners are 14-3 in this spot.

The Cubs outlasted Milwaukee in 15 innings on a cold, dreary, rainy day at Wrigley Saturday to even the series and reclaim first place in the NL Central. With both bullpens taxed, the starting pitcher who can not only be effective and take his team into the later innings will have a distinct edge and that is looking like Jon Lester. The Cubs lefty is 13-3 vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse and 25-10 vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game. (Chicago's record) Plus, Lester is clutch in the role of a favorite of -110 or higher with a 23-7 record. (Team's record) Cubs win, Cubs win on ESPN tonight.

After losing four in a row on the road, Atlanta has bounced back with a couple of wins, beating Arizona twice and looks to take the series.  Max Fried is in position to take down the D-Backs and bounce back from a rough outing he had at the Dodgers earlier this week. Zach Godley throws a lot of breaking pitches and walks too many hitters and leaves them over the plate which is why he has an ERA over 7.5. Look for the Braves to return home with a 6-4 record on the road trip come Sunday afternoon.

Colorado trails San Diego by 3.5 games in the NL West and will look to close the gap at home against the Padres. The line moves are definitely in favor of the Rockies to open the series with a victory as they have been moved from -150 to -165. Colorado is only 2-3 on the homestand but their offense is heating up faster than the weather in Denver, with 10 or more hits in six of their last seven contests. The Rocks will face Eric Lauer (2-3, 4.30 ERA). However, the Padres are 11-6 on the road and their offense has tallied two more runs than their season average in their last seven games at 5.9 RPG and they are 8-3 away after five or more home games and 10-4 away vs. RH starters.

St. Louis broke out of their hitting slump last night scoring 17 runs angainst Pittsburgh and did so without hitting a home run. That moved the Cardinals to 14-6 at Busch Stadium and in the last two-plus season at home they are 15-5 over the Pirates. While a fan of the Bucs Trevor Williams (1-1, 3.74), his form has been a little off and lifetime he had a 6.10 ERA in 12 appearances, including nine starts versus the Cards. With the Redbirds 15-2 in home games vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR'sa start and Pitt 4-20 after allowing 15 runs or more, I'm backing the Birds.

This is strictly by the numbers. The Royals Homer Bailey  1-15 playing against a team with a winning record and 1-11 at home when the total is 8.5 to 10 the last two seasons. (Team's Record) The Phils Jake Arrieta is 22-9 vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse  and 27-7 as a road favorite of -125 to -175. (Team's Record) Even if Kansas City exceeds expectations for a few innings, the Royals have a home bullpen ERA of 5.75, with the Phillies at 3.48 pen ERA on the road.

Washington's Pat Corbin (2-1, 3.71 ERA) started the season smoking hot but has cooled off allowing nine runs in last two starts. He's also pitched well versus the Dodgers of late, but in 20 appearances (18 starts) against Los Angeles in his career, Corbin is just 4-9, with his team 6-12. In the Nationals last 10 games. they are 2-8 and their offense has dried up like a puddle on a sunny L.A. day, at 2.7 RPG. The Dodgers, on the other hand, have won 10 of 13 and at home are 15-4, pounding the horsehide for 6.3 RPG. The Nats might win once in this four-game series, but it won't be tonight, especially since they are 6-16 in road contests after a 5-game span where the bullpen ERA was 6.50 or worse. 

The MLB odds have Oakland as -140 ML favorites with a total of 9. Some might argue the A's are just 9-17 against right-hand starting pitcher and while that is true, the vast majority of numbers have come away from home. Instead, let's focus on Cincinnati's apparent vulnerabilities. The Reds offense and road woes have already been acknowledged. They also have other beatable elements. For example, Cincy is 3-11 in their last 14 day games, which suggest either more or less on the sunglasses. Cincinnati is also an unseemly 12-27 on the road when the money line is +130 to -130, which they currently fall into. Next, is the matter of the Reds starting pitcher Roark, with the total at 9, he and the teams he's pitched for the last two seasons are 6-15 when the total is 8 to 9. Total up the numbers and the A's look OK for MLB picks Thursday afternoon.

The Dodgers have whipped Atlanta twice and makes it three times tonight. The Dodgers are averaging 6.2 RPG at home and are 6th in baseball in home runs and the Braves are  3-10 vs. teams averaging 1.25 or more HR's a game this season. (Losing by 2.1 RPG) Atlanta's Mike Foltynewicz (0-1, 5.06 ERA) missed spring training with an elbow issue and is trying to catch in the regular season which is always hard. He's facing Clayton  Kershaw (1-0, 2.77), whose never lost to the Braves (6-0) and has a 1.20 ERA against them in 13 starts (L.A. is 11-2) Dodgers by at least three runs. 

Miami has played the Cubs tough so far at Wrigley Field but that ends tonight. Jose Urena (1-5, 5.45 ERA) has not pitched well, but has shown improvement in his last four starts with a 3.46 ERA. But he and his Marlins teammates are 3-18 in the first half of the season since last year and 2-15 having lost three of their last four games this season. (Losing by 3.5 RPG) The Cubs are on the rise and Kyle Hendricks is returning to form with is ERA now under 4 and in six career starts against the Marlins, Hendricks is 3-1 with a 1.52 ERA. Want a RL winner, Urena and Miami are 0-12 vs. teams outscoring foes by one or more runs a game, losing by 3.5 RPG.

I don't like to bet or give out plays over -150, but when I find an irresistible play, I'm not let a few dollars get in the way. Tampa Bay has blasted Arizona twice and is 16-4 at home having won four of their last five games. Charlie Morton continues to pitch well in the latter part of his career and is 5-1 against D-Backs, whose offense has gone cold with nine hits in the series. Robbie Ray of the Snakes is combustible a third time thru the lineup and the Rays have 25 hits in the series. One little known factor, Ray and D-Backs are 1-8 in day games of late.

Having a hard time swallowing the Angels from Anaheim as this big a road favorite. The Halos are 4-12 on the road, scoring 3.3 RPG and 2-9 against left-handed starters like Daniel Norris (1-0, 3.47 ERA), posting only 2.9 RPG. Detroit  is 13-7 vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season. While the Angels, who were just pounded twice be Houston, are 11-25 after a loss by four runs or more. 

With Seattle slumping badly, too much offense for the Yankees even with the injuries. M. Tanaka will pitch Tuesday on five days' rest, attempting to continue his dominance over Seattle. He is 7-0 with a 2.02 ERA in eight career starts against Seattle and has lasted at least seven innings in seven of those starts. Tanaka is among four active pitchers with an ERA of 2.50 or less and a 7-0 record or better against one opponent. With the Yankees 31-7 at home after a 5-game span where the bullpen ERA was 2.00 or better, it's the Pinstripes.

Houston's offense is starting to roll with 57 hits and 39 runs in their last five games. With the Royals' Jake Junis continuing to struggle going thru the opposing lineup either the second or third time around supported by a bullpen with a 5.18 ERA, this has the makings of an Astros explosion. Consider these facts, K.C. is 23-68 against winning teams since last year, losing by two runs a game. Plus, Houston is 52-13 vs. bullpens blowing 38 percent or more of save chances, winning by 2.7 RPG. Excellent Run Line spot for the Astros.

St. Louis had their lunch money stolen from them by the Cubs in being swept in Chicago and are back home on a four-game losing streak. With a 12-4 record at Busch Stadium, look for the Cardinals to be fired up to get back to winning. The Redbirds are 9-1 at home vs. teams scoring 4.5 or more and have a matching 9-1 mark at Busch against team with a bullpen ERA of 4.20 or higher.

Minnesota lost series at the Yankees, that's not news, having dropped 15 of 17. The Twins are a solid club and they are averaging 5.9 RPG on the road. Starting pitcher Martin Perez has gotten off to a good start with Minnesota at 3-0, with a 2.08 ERA. Marcus Stroman has thrown well for Toronto with a 2.20 ERA, but the Blue Jays have not supported him or other Jays pitchers scoring 3.9 RPG on the season, 3.7 vs. LH starters and 3.0 RPG in their last seven outings. With the Twins 10-2 off a defeat, nice underdog spot on Minny.

Former Yankee Michael Pineda (2-2, 6.21 ERA) is trying to resurrect/save his career and landed in the Twin Cities. The oft-injured 30-year old right-hander is a shell of the pitcher he was in Seattle. Never one to really get into shape, some of Pineda's calamities have been self-induced. This season, besides permitting 37 hits in only 29 innings, his strikeouts are down from one per inning career-wise to only 22 thus far.

Domingo German for the Pinstripes is 4-1 with a 2.73 ERA, but other the L.A.A. Angels, who only recently started scoring, every other team German has faced is in the bottom half of offense in the American League. Minnesota is in the Top 5 in scoring at 5.4 RPG. Next, take the Twins offense and mesh it with the Yankees who are 5.3 RPG, who are taking on a former teammate and total of Ov8.5(-120) looks in serious jeopardy. When Pineda has pitched the last three years, he's 17-6 Over with the average score 11.2 total runs, while the Twinkies are 8-2 Over facing right-handed starters. For MLB picks, we'll say these clubs go to 8-3 Over at Yankee Stadium since 2017.

Arizona is now a hot squad with four straight wins, nine in its last 11 and 14 of its past 18. The Diamondbacks scored 19 runs while winning the first two games of the series over Colorado. Zack Greinke goes for the D-Backs and he's allowed just three runs in 27.2 innings during the four-game winning streak. An ERA that was at 7.16 after Greinke's first three starts has dropped to 3.27. This season, Arizona is 6-0 road games vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits a start with a matching record 6-0 mark after scoring nine or more runs. The Snakes slither to a sweep.

I thought last night's game would be tight and it was with the Dodgers winning 4-3. The Padres truly hate the Dodgers, but L.A. treats them like a little cousin and largely dismisses them. For all of San Diego's feelings, it the results do translate on to the field where it matters. Padres starter Joe Lucchesi is up and down as his 4.94 ERA suggests, but against Dodgers Blue all he sees is trouble at 0-3 with an 8.52 ERA. With San Diego 15-37 as a home underdog of +100 or higher since last year and 2-9 is home night games this season, it's L.A. all the way.

Milwaukee is 5-3 in their last eight games and while that is fantastic, they have 28 hits in their last three games which means the offense is starting to churn. Look for the Brewers next victim to be Zack Wheeler (2-2, 5.05 ERA) who remains as inconsistent as ever. Wheeler faces Gio Gonzalez who is 15-6 with a 2.85 ERA in 27 starts against the Mets, whom he's faced and defeated more than any opponent. Let's take the Crew who is 25-9 after a game with a combined score of four runs or less.

For this total, let's begin with the Snakes Robbie Ray  (1-1, 4.18 ERA) who can walk the park too often and who has 5.77 ERA against Colorado. The Rockies will counter with a Tyler Anderson (0-2, 11.34) whose surrendered at least five runs in each start and has given up six home runs in 16 2/3 innings. Colorado comes home hot after hanging a pair of 11's at Miller Park and Anderson is 12-3 OVER as an underdog of +100 or higher. To polish this off, Arizona is 17-7 OVER when playing with a day off. Take the Over.

After being swept in Anaheim, Toronto heads to the Lone Star State. The Blue Jays will use rookie right-hander Trent Thornton (0-3, 5.08 ERA), is still seeking his first major league win after six starts. Like a lot of rookie pitchers, Thornton has problems finding the strike zone and thus is nibbling too much according to his manager. Against a team like the Rangers that scores 6.3 RPG at home and 6.2RPG  vs. RH starters, that could be a large problem. As I've said it before, have not been a fan of Texas starter Mike Mino (3-2, 2.88), however, have to give it to him and the fact he's altered his pitch pattern to be more effective.  Let's grab the Rangers who are 8-3 in home games vs. AL teams allowing 4.4 or less runs a game, with the same record against teams with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better. 

Minnesota just took three of four from Houston but they are going to a place where they've had almost no success. The Twins have lost eight in a row at Yankee Stadium and 13 of 14 and while they faced better and less injured teams, that is still baggage to overcome. Tonight's Twins starter is Kyle Gibson, who is 1-5 with a 6.86 ERA against New York (Minny 1-7 in his eight starts), while the Yanks send out James Paxton whose gotten into a nice groove. With the Pinstripes 35-13 when the money line is -100 to -150, take New York.

Minnesota has won two of three against Houston at home goes after the series win with their ace Jose Berrios (4-1, 2.97 ERA), who is 3-0 with a 1.77 ERA in three starts at Target Field this season. Berrios is only 1-3 with an ERA over 8 against Houston, but he's not faced the Astros since 2017. His problem previously was command, however, the right-hander is now one of the best starters in the AL and has 41 K's and only eight walks in 39.1 innings. Houston's Brad Peacock is serviceable No. 5 starter, but his team is averaging only 3.6 RPG in their last seven games and is 5-9 after two away outings and 3-8 away vs. RH starters this season.  

The Dodgers are considerably better then San Francisco, even with Madison Bumgarner starting. Mad Bum and Giants are 14-30 in his last 44 starts and 5-16 if San Fran is off a loss. With Ryu and the Dodgers 37-13 versus losing teams, taking L.A.

With last night's win, Milwaukee has won four of five and goes for another 'W' over Colorado tonight. The current money line is right in the Brew Crew's wheelhouse as they are 26-9 as a home favorite of -125 to -175. Never a big fan of Chase Anderson from a pure pitching standpoint, he does have one attribute that works, he wins. On the teams Anderson has started for in home night games, he's 32-14, which is Zack Greinke-like. With Colorado scoring just 3.7 RPG on the road and having a 21-56 record after two straight games where they had five or less hits, the Crew earns the victory. 

Pittsburgh was an unlikely winner, with a 9th inning rally and winning in extra innings. That momentum carries is to today against a Texas hurler they should knock around. The Rangers  Shelby Miller (1-1, 7.52 ERA) is deplorable and he's given up four runs in each of his past four starts (only 16.2 innings total innings). For those keeping score at home, that's a run an inning and after yesterday's bullpen meltdown, Texas relievers have an ERA over 5 and at home, it's over 5.5. With last night's win, the Pirates are 18-5 in interleague games. Make it 19-5 for the Bucs.

Pittsburgh has lost eight in a row and they will win eventually, just not tonight. The Pirates are facing  Texas team that coming off scoring 29 runs in two games. Normally that might be a cause for concern, but with Texas coming home and after an off day, don't see an issue for a club that is 8-3 at home scoring 6.3 RPG. The Bucs Jordan Lyles has gotton off to a good at 2-1, with a 2.05 ERA, but this is not his history and he's 13-42 playing against a team with a winning record. (Team's record)

Milwaukee starter Jhoulys Chacin (2-3, 6.35 ERA) has come back to earth after a super season. He always pitched well against his former team with a 2.70 ERA in five starts, but he's back to throwing like he often did in Colorado. German Marquez (3-1, 2.54) once again is a bulldog for the Rockies and when they are on the road and need a victory, more often than not he delivers. Marquez is 9-3 in road games when playing against a team with a winning record and Colorado is 21-11 vs. a team with a bullpen that converts on 75+ percent of their save opportunities.

In the second tilt of this four-game set, the total is 8.5, with the Padres starting rookie Chris Paddack (1-1, 1.67) against the veteran Braves right-hander Julio Teheran (2-3, 5.40). Paddack's incredible ERA for a rookie is only surpassed by opposing batters hitting a measly .112 against him. Teheran never turned into the ace Atlanta thought they had with his penchant for leaving too many pitches in the strike zone and missing his target by four to six inches too frequently. Add the number of hits allowed (33 in 31.2 innings) along with 17 free passes and that explains the ERA and WHIP (1.57).

Yet, in Teheran's last three home starts against the Padres, all wins, he conceded four runs in 19 innings. With the Friars batting .223 on the road, the Braves righty is 10-2 Under at home vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse. San Diego is only scoring 3.6 RPG against RH starters and Atlanta is 22-6 Under after scoring and allowing three runs or less in their last outing. Let's grab the Under.

The MLB odds for tonight have a total of 9.5 and that might not be enough for a lot of reasons. For example, the starting hurlers are Aaron Brooks (2-2, 5.33 ERA) for the A's and Rick Porcello (1-3, 7.43) for Boston. As you can see, neither pitcher is missing many bats. Of the 26 hits Brooks has allowed in 27 innings, a half dozen have cleared the fence, that's not good. Porcello won the Cy Young in 2016 and to date been dreadful. He showed a few signs of turning his season around in picking up his first win in his last outing against Detroit, going six innings and permitting three runs. Otherwise, 23 innings, 34 hits surrendered and 15 walks, for a scornful WHIP of 2.13.

With both bullpens merely middle of the road on the season and worse in their respective home/road scenarios, for MLB picks the Over is too inviting. This is further backed by Oakland at 9-0 Over after two or more road games this season and Porcello 21-7 Over vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse.

By far the best betting value is grabbing Minnesota on a run line of +100. Oddsmakers are telling us so because, with the Twins at -180 ML, they should about +120 on the RL and not as low as they are. With Baltimore 14-34 against the run line (-27.8 Units) in road games vs. a starting pitcher who walks 1.75 or fewer per start and the Twinkies 12-3 vs. the RL in home games vs. a team with a terrible bullpen whose ERA is 5.20 or worse, Minnesota rolls by at least three runs.

On Sunday after seeing a game snowed out in Chicago, going to take Matt Boyd and Detroit over the White Sox and Reynaldo Lopez. The Pale Hose right-hander 1-3, 7.46 ERA and has already allowed seven homers in just over 25 innings and his team is 8-26 in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out five or more batters per start. Boyd is that pitcher (2-1, 3.16) and after a tough start to his career Chicago, he's working on a string of 15 scoreless innings against the Sox and he and his Tigers teammates are 11-4 in day games since last season. 

Seattle's been an early-season surprise, thanks to an offense that averages over 6.0 RPG and hits home runs like the Arizona Cardinals draft quarterbacks in the first round. #regularly The Mariners have been bombs away and have EIGHT batters with at least five long balls. Just taking those M's players at a minimum if five homers each, that is more than 23 other teams season total. Seattle's lumber company will trust Mike Leake (2-2, 4.30) will keep them in the game long enough to build a lead.

Texas starter Mike Minor and the teams he pitched for have never beaten Seattle in five tries and he has 5.31 ERA against Seattle. Leake had a poor outing last season against Texas, otherwise, he has 2.92 ERA vs. the Rangers in a half dozen starts. Even if Minor pitches fair, the Texas bullpen is 13th in the AL in ERA. With Leake and Seattle 20-11 vs. an AL team with an on-base percentage of .330 or worse the last two years and the M's 9-0 versus AL teams allowing 4.9 or more runs a contest, the Mariners sail to victory. 

The Yankees are relishing their role as underdogs and having fun. While most teams strive to have double digits in base hits, New York has it on the injured list yet manager Aaron Boone is using that to get his team to show up and play hard every day. The Yankees have won nine of 11 and are averaging 5.9 RPG in this stretch, If they can knock around Madison Bumgarner around last night in a 7-3 win over San Francisco, they can certainly do the same to fellow Giants lefty Derek Holland. J.A. Happ will take the ball for New York and he faces a lineup that is scoring a mere 3.1 RPG. Consider the Yanks with Happ is 17-3 vs. teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game the last two seasons. (Team's Record) 

St. Louis offense is rolling in averaging almost 7 RPG in their last seven outings. The Cards are also 10-3 at home, while the Reds got in late to St. Louis because of rain delay and they are 4-9 on the road with a weak offense. The Redbirds win!

Cleveland's Corey Kluber cannot wait for April to end as he been awful with 5.88 ERA and giving up more than a hit an inning. Kluber understands he'll get clubbed by Houston, who is averaging 6.4 RPG at home, which is why they are 8-1 in Juice Park. The Astros Collin McHugh started well but was abused for 10 runs in just over three innings in a loss at Texas in his last start, which raised his ERA to 4.88. Look for McHugh to pitch much better at home and with the total at 8, he and his teammates are 25-7 at Minute Maid Park when the total is 8 to 8.5. The Astros take Game 2 of the series.

Atlanta is back home after six games in Ohio and sends Max Fried to face Colorado. The Braves lefty has sharp 1.38 ERA, and he's won all three of his starts. But Fried and Atlanta seem overvalued at home at around -165, having just a 12-12 record is 20-27 (-18.1 Units) as a home favorite of -125 to -175 the last two years. The Rockies Antonio Senzatela (3.55 ERA) is a battler and like all Colorado pitchers is better on the road. With the Braves have won both games in Denver earlier this month, the Rocks are 9-2  in road games revenging two home losses and 16-7 away after scoring eight or more runs. Excellent ML dog action!

Seattle hit the ball hard on at least 10 occasions yesterday but was shutout 1-0 at San Diego on two hits. Back home Mariners hitter will face a Texas team that is 2-7 on the road and permitting 5.5 RPG on the road. Seattle's Marco Gonzales has a 3.32 ERA and the Mariners are 5-1 in his starts and they have won by 2.5 RPG.  With Texas 11-22 against the run line in road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.9 or more runs a game, they win by at least two runs. 

Mike Trout might have his ginormous contract, but he's still on a bad Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim squad that has lost nine of 10. Though cloning is becoming a thing, it's not made it so far where the Angels could to it to Trout, saddled on a team that plays "good enough to lose" Yogi Berra-ism (not familiar - Google it), with a 1-7 record in one-run games and 12th in AL starting pitcher ERA.

Trevor Cahill (1-2, 5.47) left the Chicago Cubs because he wanted to be a starting pitcher again and he found a sucker who took the bait. The Bronx Bombers will have every chance to improve on their 6.5 RPG on the road this season. Masahiro Tanaka (2-1, 2.76) and the Yankees are -102 road underdogd. Tanaka has a minuscule 1.59 ERA in a half dozen starts against the Halos and he and his team are 6-0 against them. For MLB picks, we'll back New York who is 32-12 when the money line is -100 to -150.         

Cincinnati's Luis Castillo (2-1, 1.47 ERA) has really come into his own and been filthy to start the season. Castillo has 41 punch-outs in just over 30 innings and allowed only 13 hits. His mental approach has changed with his development and he's no longer nibbling, rather attacking hitters. And he's backed by the No. 2 bullpen in the National League.

The MLB odds have Cincy as -133 favorites against Atlanta's Julio Teheran (2-2, 5.61). The Braves righty was once considered ace material, but he walks too many hitters and gives up more than a hit an inning and he is exposed with a WHIP of 1.64 so far this season and Teheran has an 8.59 ERA in three road starts this season. Cincy takes the series.

King Felix is just a court jester at this point of his career. However, San Diego is not hitting, averaging 3.5 RPG which leads to believe he can contain Padres offense. Actually like what I see from Padres starter Chris Paddock but no discounting this Seattle offense that scoring 7.6 RPG on the road and is beating foes regularly away from home with an 11-3 record. The Mariners are crushing right-handed starters this season and continue to do so as a big underdog.

Though neither Jhoulys Chacin or Adam Wainwright are as good as they used to in their younger days, they have a history. The team's Chacin has pitched for are 4-7 against the Cardinals and Wainwright's teams are 20-11. Let's add in St. Louis is 9-3 at home to start the season and the Redbirds get the call.

Oakland got back in the win column yesterday against Texas and look for them to the Rangers down again. The A's are 40-13 vs. AL teams allowing 4.9 or more runs a game and 44-15 if that team has a bullpen ERA of 4.20 or higher. With Texas only 2-5 on the road and averaging 3.6 RPG, Oakland takes Game 2.

First to admit, was not a Wade Miley fan for years and made a lot of money for my clients betting against him. But since Miley developed the 'cutter' he's become a slightly above average pitcher and remarkable dependable. Miley's also on a Houston team that can score. Minnesota is a good club and been quite good on the road. Just not sure about Michael Pineda, who has not been bad, but has allowed four homers in just 18+ innings. With Miley  11-2 when working on five or six days rest the last two seasons (Team's Record) and backed with a great bullpen, Houston tops the Twins.

After giving up eight runs and not recording an out against the Phillies last week, Steven Matz will be clearly motivated. But here is the thing, the Mets offense has cooled, down to 3.7 RPG in their last 7 after averaging over 5.5 for the season. Matz has an ERA of almost 6 against Philadelphia and his teammates are 1-5 in his half dozen starts against Philly. Jake Arrieta (3-1, 2.25 ERA) is off to a stellar start and he has a 2.64 ERA vs. New York. Even if Matz throws fairly well, his bullpen has a ERA over 5.50 that the Phils offense can exploit they score 5.5 RPG. The Mets are 12-27 at home having lost four of their last five games, while Arrieta is 47-18 after giving up two or less earned runs in his last two outings. (Team's record) Taking the Phillies.

Pittsburgh's Joe Musgrove has been super with 0.81 ERA and WHIP of 0.76, but there is nothing in his career that indicates this is a new norm with a 4.08 ERA. Musgrove faced Arizona twice last year and lost both times and came away with a 6.08 ERA. While Zack Godley is hardly a great pitcher for the D-Backs, he will be facing a Pirates lineup that scored 12 runs and had 21 hits in their last four games, which is even lower than the 3.6 RPG on the season. In the last two years, Godley and Snakes are 10-2 as a road underdog of +100 to +150, giving us a good value.

In the series finale, Clayton Kershaw (2.57 ERA) will make his second start since coming off the IL and he was sharp against Cincinnati, going seven innings, permitting two runs on five hits and striking out six.

Milwaukee will counter with Brandon Woodruff (2-1, 5.22), who has 26 K's on 20 2/3 innings and has walked only six. Where he has gotten into trouble is the hits and walks have occurred in bunches, accounting for his higher ERA. Woodruff better be on his game against L.A. since they lead the National League in runs scored, home runs, on-base percentage and virtually every important hitting number.

The MLB odds have the Dodgers right around -125 road faves. Just the name Kershaw speaks for itself and while he might not throw as hard as he used to, he still knows how to pitch. Kershaw and the Dodgers 43-15 on Sunday's, which makes for a vast number of series wins and collectively this combination is 73-26 in day games. For MLB picks, our choice is Dodger Blue.

Unless these teams are arm weary from swinging the bats from yesterday twin-bill, pitchers K. Gibson and D. Bundy both have ERA's over 7 thus far. These starters also have ERA over 5 against the other team and Minnesota is averaging 7.2 RPG on the road and Baltimore 5 RPG at home.

The Red Sox starting pitching in the worst in the majors, with an ERA of over 6.4 and among the contributors to this horrific stat is Rick Porcello (0-3, 11.12). It's fairly amazing Porcello is getting another start, even if it's only April. In only 11 1/3 innings, the former Cy Young winner has surrendered 22 hits and walked 12, which produces an ungodly WHIP of 3.00. Coming into this confrontation, opposing teams are batting, you ready for this, .415 against him. Backed with a bullpen that has an ERA over 5, Boston better hit.

Charlie Morton (2-0, 2.18) continues his late in life (baseball years) revival. At 35, Morton still has an electric fastball and has fanned 25 batters in 20 2/3 innings, while only giving up 14 base hits.

After losing last night 6-4, Tampa Bay maintains a large seven-game lead over the Red Sox. Though Porcello has generally pitched well against the Rays (14-10, 3.42 ERA), that would seem like a performance he's not presently capable of. The BoSox are also an undesirable 3-8 against teams averaging 1.25 or more homers game this season.  With the Boys from Bean-Town 4-10 on the road, Tampa Bay is too good to pass up.

Going with the better team and better pitcher in this one. Jameson Taillon might be 0-2, but he has a solid 3.43 ERA. He certainly a more reliable pitcher than the Giants Derek Holland (1-2, 5.00 ERA), who walk a batter every other inning. San Francisco is 5-17  revenging a loss as a road favorite, while Pittsburgh is s 7-0 vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game and 17-1 against teams whose hitters draw three walks or less a game.

Even with all the injuries, the Pinstripes have more than enough offense to batter the Royals Heath Fillmyer and relievers that follow him. Look for Masahiro Tanaka to rebound from a poor outing. Next, let's consider that the Yankees are 19-8 against the run line after batting .200 or worse over a 3-game span, while K.C. is 11-23 against the run line in April road games the last three seasons. The Finisher - AL home teams against the run line with a slugging percentage of .440 or higher, against a team with a bad bullpen (WHIP of 1.55 or higher), batting .225 or worse over their last five games, are 36-15.

Toronto's Marcus Stroman has a super 1.99 ERA, but the Blue Jays are 0-4 in his starts. Oakland has one the best home field advantages in baseball and is 41-14 as a home favorite of -110 or higher. With the Jays averaging just 3.7 RPG, Stroman having a 6.75 ERA against the A's and a 1-12 record in road games vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs a game for his career (Jays Record), it's Oakland.

Two veteran pitchers collide near The Arch in St. Louis and only one still has something left in the tank. Adam Wainwright is no longer dominant, but he's still can mow down opposing batters and in his three starts this season, just one would be deemed below average. Jason Vargas is only an innings-eater at this point of his career and he's had a hard time with that with an ERA over 10. New York has lost four of five as the offense is starting to cool and the Cardinals are 6-0 vs. an NL team with an on-base percentage of .340 or better this season. Make it 7-0. 

Taking my cue from the oddsmakers, who have Houston at -225 on the ML, which means the run line should be -110 to -115. Also, Play On favorites with a money line of -200 or more, an excellent fielding team, averaging 0.5 or fewer errors a game on the season, after scoring one run or less.  Teams like Houston in this spot are an amazing 42-1, and mostly importantly here, they win by 3.6 RPG.

Last week I had a winner for you going against Detroit's Jordan Zimmermann and look for that to happen again tonight. Zimmermann makes too much money to be released or traded (think Matt Cain of the Giants) and except for series of good starts here and there when he commands his sinker, he has better than a 60 percent chance to lose any start. The Tigers beat the White Sox 9-7 yesterday and that outcome usually means bad news for Detroit. Here is the deal, the Tigers are 10-24 after scoring nine runs or more and 3-15 after a game with a combined score of 15 runs or more. With the White Sox and their starter, Carlos Rodon, 7-1 vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or less runs a game, take the Pale Hose.

Colorado's Kyle Freeland (1-3, 5.40) has gotten off to stumbling start and his WHIP of 1.41 explains why he's permitting too many hits and free passes. But that has not been the norm for Freeland, as the Rockies are 25-13 in his last 38 starts. Freeland has also shown a proclivity for building on victories as he and his teammates are 17-5 when he pitches if they are off a win. With the Phillies 13-25 in road games vs. NL teams allowing 4.5 or more runs a game and 1-6 of late at Coors Field, for MLB picks we will rock the Rockies.

Milwaukee players still have a bitter taste in their collective mouths since falling in Game 7 at home of the NLCS. Winning the season series against L.A. is not going to replace that anguish, but it becomes a building block if they meet again. 

After a good first start, Julio Urias has been batted around for nine runs (8 earned) in only 8 2/3 innings. His lone loss came to Milwaukee who scored six runs off the lefty and took him deep twice. Zach Davies has allowed one run in his last three starts against Los Angeles, covering 20 innings, all wins for him and his team. The MLB odds have Milwaukee at +104 on the money line and they are superb 20-7 off a loss and 37-14 in Game 1's of series.  

Texas is averaging 6.5 RPG at home and 7.2 RPG in their last five contests playing anywhere. The Angels are at 2.7 RPG on the road and they are starting Matt Harvey who has an ERA over 10. The Rangers Lance Lynn had a poor debut with his new team but has allowed three runs in 13 innings in his last two starts. With the Halos 11-33 vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.20 or better, Texas sweeps the series. 

I have a nice situational play for you with Pittsburgh at Detroit. The Pirates have won 16 of 21 games against the AL and in the mix has come nine victories and only two losses versus the Tigers. The Bucs Trevor Williams (1-0, 2.45 ERA) gives his team a solid six innings almost every time out and against Detroit, he on a string of 13 scoreless innings and will face a lineup averaging 2.7 RPG. With Pittsburgh 20-4 vs. AL teams scoring 3.9 or less RPG, you can figure what side I'll be on. 

Milwaukee's offense at home continues to be sensational, averaging 6.9 RPG, after batters St. Louis pitching for 10 and 8 runs so far in this series. They probably will not have as much success against the Redbirds Michael Wacha, whose 5.28 is attributed to one bad outing. However, the ways Brewers are swinging the lumber, if Wacha continues to give up four walks a start, they will take advantage of the situation. Brew Crew starter Corbin Burnes (10.05) has given up nine HR's in just over 14 innings, with eight coming on fastballs. The Cards are 23-9 OVER when having lost three of four and 32-13 OVER as a road underdog of +100 to +150.

Doing a little old school handicapping here. San Diego starter rookie left-hander Nick Margevicius (1-1, 1.69 ERA) has never pitched above Class A ball until this season. In his first three starts for the Padres he's has allowed three runs on nine hits with 12 K's in 16 innings. He has surrendered one run in each of his first three starts, becoming only the fourth Padre to accomplish the feat. For years there was a winning capping method to play against an unknown pitcher or one from the back of the rotation after a trio of excellent starts, as he would struggle in the next one. Starters don't go any many innings these days, but this would seem to still offer value. Colorado has ended their slump with back to back victories and sends Jon Gray (0-3, 4.19) to toe the slab. Gray enjoys pitching against the Friars and is 7-1 against the Padres since Sept. 17, 2016, with a 2.56 ERA in nine starts. Gray owns a 4-2 mark at Petco Park with a 2.63 ERA, and a .229 batting average allowed in seven starts. He has won each of his past three starts in San Diego while compiling a 1.42 ERA. With the Pads 14-32 at home vs teams who strand 6.9 or fewer runners on base per game and Gray sharp at Petco, the Rockies rock and sweep the two-game series. 

Tampa Bay is the best team in baseball and has Massive edges in starting pitching and the bullpen on Tuesday night. They are also 12-2 against the run line when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season, winning by 3.1 RPG, while Orioles starter Bundy is 3-19 vs. the RL at night, with the O's losing by 3.9 RPG. 

Clutch win by New York on Monday over Philadelphia. Look for the Mets to take Game 2 as well and it begins with the starting pitching. Steven Matz has a 1.65 ERA, with a 19/5 K/W ratio and has only allowed 12 hits in 16 1/3 innings. The Phils Nick Pivetta might throw harder, but his ERA is 9.45 and catches way too much of the dish with 24 hits given up in just 13 1/3 innings. The New York pen is a concern, yet they are 11-5 in road games vs. teams averaging 1.25 or more HR's a game and Matz and his teammates are 15-7 vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse.

If there is a play against pitcher in baseball right now, Texas' Shelby Miller is the guy. His 9.52 ERA fits his skill and he's 17-34 vs. teams averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game. (team's record) Trevor Cahill is not a great starter, but he's way better than Miller. The Angels are 15-1 as a road favorite of -125 to -175, while the Rangers are 5-16 in Monday home games since 2017.

St. Louis makes a second trip into Milwaukee already this season starting tonight. After being swept in Anaheim, the Brew Crew took the series in Los Angeles. St. Louis arrives in Brew Town after playing they Reds twice in Mexico and they have won six of seven. The Brewers Freddy Peralta (1-0, 6.91) has one outstanding start sandwiched between two poor outings this season but has avoided defeat thus far. St. Louis right-hander Dakota Hudson (0-1, 2.79) will make his third major league start after coming out of the bullpen in all 26 appearances during his rookie year last season. He has not allowed a run in his past two outings and this season and over the last five years in April, pitchers that throw that well have allowed 4.2 runs a start in next outing. Toss in Milwaukee is 17-5 after a game where they had four or less hits and 10-1 home after a loss by six runs or more and they are our pick. 

Any time you win three straight road games against one team, there is a certain level of luck involved, which is exactly what San Diego has done against Arizona. Today, Zack Greinke pitches for the Snakes and he's 12-2 with 2.39 ERA against the Padres and the teams he's played for are 17-6 all told. Plus, home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher, who score 5.0 or more RPG, against an average NL starter (ERA range of 4.20 to 5.20), after a loss by two runs or less, are 117-40. 

Jordan Zimmermann started the season with two excellent outings, then reality placed a collect call. The 32-year old was tagged for five runs and taken yard three times by Cleveland in 4.1 innings in his last start, which begins to balance the books on a pitcher who has an ERA over 5.00 in his three previous years in a Tigers uniform. With the Twins 4th in the AL in OPS, they should score runs against him liberally. Know this, Zimmermann and Detroit are 6-20 against foes with a winning record. With Berrios a stud and the Twinkies 24-15 against the run line in home games vs. division opponents, we like Minny by at least two runs.

The Padres are 4th in ERA in the NL and have gotten excellent work from starters and relievers alike. Part of their success is limiting balls put into play, ranked in the Top 3 in strikeouts in the senior circuit. Left-hander Matt Strahm is the probable starter and he's been the weak link at 0-2, with a 7.04 ERA and a WHIP of 2.20. That is contrary to his career ERA of 3.15, however, only 10 of 88 big league appearances have been starts.

If you have never heard of Arizona starter Merrill Kelly (1-1, 2.57), you are not alone. An 8th round draft pick of Tampa Bay in 2010, he never made it above Triple-A with the Rays and had spent the last three years in Korea honing his craft and pitched very effectively there. The Scottsdale native is back home and is pitching well and keeping hitters off balance.

With no Paul Goldschmidt, there were questions about where the offense would come from. However, to this point, the Diamondbacks are averaging over 5 runs per game with David Peralta, Adam Jones, Nick Ahmed, and Ketel Marte all making major contributions. The Snakes are hitting and have averaged 5.7 RPG against lefties, leading to a 4-2 record this season. Expect that to continue and a confident Kelly limits the Padres. Look for the D-Backs to climb to 24-12 in April the last couple of years.

Missed on Atlanta last night but right back with them on Saturday. The Mets are hitting, but Sean Newcomb has a 1.64 ERA to start the season and has a 1.82 ERA in six career starts against New York after permitting three runs in three starts (18 innings) last season. Jason Vargas for the Mets is essentially a washed-up lefty. With Newcomb and the Braves 7-2 after scoring two runs or less and the Bravos 11-4 at home, back Hotlanta. 

Miami is in desperate need of offense. The Marlins are hitting a grotesque .215 collectively and the team's on-base percentage of .271 is lower than what 31 National League hitters have for a batting average. To have any shot at Philadelphia, starting pitcher Caleb Smith (0-0, 4.09 ERA) needs a dialed in performance since he cannot expect much from a bullpen that has an ERA hovering around 5.5.

With Philadelphia averaging over six runs a game on the season, they should tag Smith for at least three runs over five innings. That is when they can go to work on the Marlins relievers and pile up more. Dating back to last year, Zack Eflin and the Phils are 9-3 in the first half of the season in his starts, while Miami has lost 10 of 12 middle games of a series. For MLB picks, make it Phiily.

Atlanta lost the series opener 6-3 last night but look for them to bounce back against the Mets. Zack Wheeler (0-1, 10.24 ERA) is not mowing down many bats for New York and even with that win on Thursday, the Metropolitans are 21-44 against NL teams averaging 5 or more runs a game. Also, teams with an on-base percentage of .375 or better over their last five games, with a bullpen whose WHIP is over 2.00 the last five games, are 4-21 since 2017. 

Tampa Bay has picked up right where they left off last year with an 11-3 start to the season, including 5-1 on the road. The Rays are doing the committee bullpen again with Ryan Stanek going an inning or two and right now the Tampa Bay bullpen is 3rd in baseball in ERA. The Rays offense has been outstanding away from home at 6.0 RPG and that not just going deep, as they are hitting .302 with an OPB of .379. Toronto has started about as expected at 4-9 and made trades this month already signaling they are looking ahead. With the Rays  26-10 after a win by four runs or more, they take the series lid-lifter. 

Colorado is 3-9 while San Francisco is 4-9. That's bad baseball. There is the potential for this contest to feature scoring because starting pitchers Jon Gray (0-2, 5.68) and Jeff Samardzija (0-0. 2.79) almost never have the word - stingy - used when discussing the pitching prowess. Cases in point, Gray is 10-26 when the total is 7 to 8.5 and Smards is 16-34 at home when the money line is +125 to -125. (There team's record) However, cannot help but notice that oddsmakers have made a line of -120 on Colorado based on overall talent, not current form. The Rockies have the better overall squad and Gray is the better starter if his head is into the game. (Always a debatable situation) Here is something we cannot ignore; Thursday NL road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher, with a team batting average of .245 or worse on the season, are 36-6 since 2015.  

Kansas City has closed the gap in every game this series against Seattle, yet the fact remains they still have yet to win after dropping three straight. The Mariners are far and away the best team in baseball at the moment at 12-2 and they are crushing the ball even on the road at an amazing 8.5 RPG. With starter Mike Leake and the M's 22-11 when he pitches since last year and his teammates 40-15 vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or fewer runs a game in the same time span, the Mariners toss the Royals overboard yet again. 

Tampa Bay has whipped the White Sox twice and expect more of the same today. The Rays have Sox pitching figured out and Pale Hose pitcher Reynaldo Lopez in two starts has pitched nine innings, allowing 10 runs, 12 hits and walked eight. That sure sounds like more Rays runs. Let's also understand what the oddsmakers are thinking. The Rays are around a -165 ML favorite and normally on the run, they would be +120 to +130, instead they are -105, which means they are trying to discourage you from betting the RL. Know this, AL Road teams against a run line of +1.5, -110 to -1.5, -155 (TAMPA BAY)  allowing 3.9 or fewer runs/game on the season, after scoring 10 runs or more are 20-4 the last five years. Pound Tampa Bay on the RL. 

San Diego continues to play well at 7-4 and their offense continues to show well scoring four to six runs in five of previous half dozen starts. I'm betting that continues against the laboring Giants (3-8) and Derek Holland who has an ERA of 5.00 this season and over 6.00 against the Padres. Joey Lucchesi has pitched well for the Friars (no runs, two starts) and he faces a San Fran team that is 20-42 having lost two of their last three games.

After 11 games, Tampa Bay has surrendered 1.8 runs a game. Talk about shutting down opposing offenses! This afternoon, they will send Charlie Morton to toe the slab against Chicago and he's gotten off to a great start with a 1.64 ERA over 11 innings with 14 K's. Morton has won both career starts against Chicago.  Plus, check out this Rays numbers, 12-2 vs. a team with a winning ptc. below .400, 12-4 in their last 16 road games and 12-3 in Game 2 of a series.

I would parlay this with the Mets and deGrom who is sensational and New York's offense is much better. This reduces risk on separate wagers. 

Expect Corey Kluber to bounce back and Detroit's Jordan Zimmermann is not this good, but he's in one of his early season zones. Both offenses are under 3.5 RPG and both bullpens have been very sharp with ERA's under 2.90. With the Tribe 17-6 UNDER in road games vs. AL teams scoring 3.9 or less runs a game, backing the UNDER. 

Seattle is averaging 7.7 RPG and been even better on the road at 8.6 RPG. That is reason enough to take them against Kansas City and Homer Bailey. The Royals have lost six straight and Bailey is on a string of 20 losses in 21 starts (team's record), including 1-19 as an underdog. Backed with the Royals having a bullpen with an 8.10 ERA, Seattle continues its winning ways. 

Both Oakland and Baltimore were swept over the weekend, but the A's are better equipped to bounce back. Orioles pitchers gave up 14 home runs to the Yankees, while the Athletics suffered two hard one-run losses at Houston. The A's will use change of speed artist Marco Estrada who keeps hitters off balance and he has a 2.76 ERA this season and is 9-3 lifetime against the Birds. The O's counter with Andrew Cashner and he's as inconsistent as ever already, allowing six runs in four innings of first start, followed by six shutout innings. Even if Cashner pitches a little better than expected, Baltimore's bullpen ERA is 7.97, this A's 3.68. Expect Oakland to move to 23-4 playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) on Monday night.

Bonus Play - #811 Texas Tech +1.5

Maybe fate steps in and Virginia goes from the colossal No.1 seed failure ever to national champs in 55 weeks. Maybe the Cavaliers are Cinderella this time, as they squeaked by Oregon, needed OT to beat Purdue and we saw what happened against Auburn. Texas Tech has been dominant, winning by an average of 14 PPG in the tournament and beat the spread by an average 12.4 PPG, the last three as underdogs. I have never seen a team play defense as they do. They give dribbler's no space and they generate turnovers and taps without excessive fouling. Though Virginia seldom turns the ball over, the Red Raiders are +22 for the tournament and have been plus in this category in every game and they cut down the nets tonight.  

It seems crazy that the Angels are -130 ML favorites. However, oddsmakers are thinking like we are that Texas starter Shelby Miller (0-0, 4.91)  could have an outing like his first one with the Rangers. The right-hander went 3 2/3, giving up five hits and walked five, yet, somehow only surrendered two runs. Expect Miller to get in trouble again and the Halos move to 39-16 as a favorite of -125 to -175.

It's Washington and the best rationale we can come up with is Scherzer is too good a hurler to keep suffering losses. Mad Max knows how to close out series with his current teammates and that combination is 28-11 in Game 3 of a series and 11-4 when he takes the ball on a Sunday. Couple that with the Nats blowing a 5-3 lead in the eighth inning to the Mets, falling 6-5 and there is ample reason to suspect the Washington late Sunday afternoon is 7-1 in their last eight series ending contests.

Houston is averaging 2.2 runs a game and headed into Game 2 of their series with Oakland.

The Athletics have done more on offense in averaging 3.9 RPG, but their pitching has been exceptional in permitting only 3.1 RPG.

Houston's Wade Miley gave up three runs in his first start over six innings and since last year, he's saved/revitalized his career as a starting pitcher. His magic formula at 31 years of age a year - The Cutter. If Miley was right-handed, he might have been out of baseball. Instead, he gained trust in the cutter and its created doubts in hitter's mind about his other pitches and he's now more effective.

Oakland's Aaron Brooks was sharp in six shutout innings, giving up only two hits while fanning a half dozen. Brooks might not be that effective, but with the Astros lumber not working and Miley with 1.64 ERA against the Athletics, we'll call for the Houston to move to 32-15 UNDER in April home games since 2015.

The Cardinals Michael Wacha was 8-2 record with a 3.20 ERA before getting hurt last year. He's picked up right where he left off last season and he's been great against San Diego with a 3-0 record in five starts, 2.32 earned-run average, and a .216 opponents' batting average. And when's he's pitching at Busch Stadium, Wacha is 29-13 for his career.

The Cardinals have not been hitting and that is when they usually break out of it and they are 10-1 after batting .200 or worse over a 5-game span and 13-2 after a game where they stranded three or fewer runners on base.

My apologies to long term members for Friday. After going 82-61 over 36 days, I went sideways and will do my best to get that money back for you. 

Texas is swinging the bats in averaging 6.4 RPG. There is no reason to believe Felix Pena will cool them off as he's just another pitcher. Lance Lynn was shelled in his first start for Texas, but that's contrary to how he normally pitches in the first two months of the season, having a sharp 31-16 record for April/May, his best two months. With the Angels 6-19 after allowing eight runs or more and 1-12 vs. AL teams with slugging percentage of .440 or better, take Texas.

The Pirates and Reds open up a four-game series in the Steel City. Both teams are off a frustrating start to the week, failing to win thus far. The starting pitcher matchup of Jordan Lyles for Pittsburgh vs. Taylor Mahle of Cincinnati favors the Pirates, based on results, not ERA. Mahle and the Reds have never beaten the Bucs in four starts and he has a 5.90 ERA against them. Lyles' 5.10 ERA is hardly impressive, but he's 4-1 against Cincy and 5-2 for the different teams he's pitched for. Once again and this will probably be true all year, Cincinnati is 7-23 in April most recently which means an uphill battle. Pittsburgh's stronger offense will pick up the rest of the difference for a winner. 

Tampa Bay has completely shut down Colorado and they have scored four runs in losing four in a row. Today that changes and it begins with German Marquez, who is 13-7 in road games playing against a team with a winning record and 10-3 as a road underdog. (Rockies Record) Add in the Rocks are 13-4 after a game where they stranded three or less runners on base and a perfect 10-0 after batting .175 or worse over a 3-game span.                

The Phillies have started hot, Washington, not so much. Philadelphia has a huge pitching edge with Aaron Nola and he and his team are 15-2 vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse the last two seasons. Off last night's win over M. Scherzer, the Phils are 28-12 after scoring eight runs or more. Lastly, the Nats are 3-10 at home playing against a top-level team whose win percentage is 62% or higher. 

Cincinnati has played the Brewers tough but came up one-run short twice. Look for Luis Castillo to come up big today and slow Milwaukee down along with having success against Freddy Peralta. In addition, when I went against the Brew Crew earlier, reliever Josh Hader was not available, just like he will not be tonight. Here is what put me over the edge on the Reds, Play Against division road teams like Milwaukee when the money line is +125 to -125, off two straight wins if the last one was by one run. These teams are 12-40 in the next game.

Seattle is off to a blazing start at 6-1 and despite moving some players with big names, their offense is in an absolute groove right now scoring better than seven runs a game. At the moment it is difficult to imagine the Halos Trevor Cahill will slow them, as he's nothing more than a journeyman pitcher. The Angels offense is stuck in neutral and they will face Marco Gonzales who is built for this money line with a record of  13-3 mark when the money line is +125 to -125. (Mariners Record)

Boston pitchers had a tough start to the season in Seattle and now head to Oakland where they have lost five of seven the last couple years. However, that changes tonight as David Price makes his debut and look for him to limit an A's offense that has only averaged 3.8 RPG, while Price has a 3.31 ERA against them. It's not like the Red Sox are not swinging the bats, scoring 6 RPG and they are 13-1 in road games after a combined score of 15 runs or more. 

Break up the Orioles! That's right, Baltimore won the series at Yankee Stadium to start the season and next travel north to Canada. I think the Birds good luck could continue, at least for one more game from that feel good series. David Hess takes the ball for the O's and he's started three times against the Blue Jays and permitted two runs over 19 innings (0.95 ERA). Toronto split four games with Detroit at home but only scored 12 runs. The Jays will counter with Sean Reid-Foley who has undeniable talent but struggles to throw strikes, even in Triple-A and could get himself in trouble versus a Baltimore offense that just scored 14 times against the Pinstripes. This early in the season, anything is possible, why can't the Birds start 3-1?

On Saturday, this was my second choice for baseball picks and this gets moved to the front of the line on Sunday because of the rainout. Sonny Gray is a shell of his former and has ended up in Cincinnati, a team going nowhere. Pittsburgh's Trevor Williams came into his own last year and was 14-10 with a fine 3.11 ERA and he was the only starter in baseball that had 10 scoreless starts going at least six innings. In three career starts against the Reds, he is 3-0 (4-1 all starts) with a sharp 2.22 ERA. Look for the Pirates to knock around Gray and split the series with their division rivals.