My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Miami Ohio (11:00 AM EST).

The 6-6 Miami Ohio RedHawks are battling the 5-7 Mississippi State Bulldogs in the St. Petersburg Bowl on Monday morning and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the RedHawks.

Miami Ohio started the year 0-6, but then won its final six games, beating Ball State 21-20 at home on November 22nd to become bowl eligible. Suffice it to say, I think the RedHawks incredible momentum gets carried over into this one.

Mississippi State would snap a two-game slide by hammering Ole Miss 55-20 in the Egg Bowl on November 26th.

The RedHawks would finish 73rd in the nation in passing offense with 227.9 YPG and 1`1th in scoring offense with 23.4 PPG. Miami Ohio is stout defensively though in conceding just 24.3 PPG, ranked 41st in the country. QB Gus Ragland played half the season and finishd 93 of 149 for 1,274 yards, with 15 TD’s and no INT’s. 

The Bulldogs would finish 52nd in scoring offense with an average of 31.5 PPG, but 97th in scoring defense, allowing 33.1 PPG. QB Nick Fitzgerald finished 172 of 334 for 2,281 yards, 21 TD’s and ten INT’s. 

I’ll point out though that the RedHawks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight after posing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game, while the Bulldogs are just 1-5 ATS in their last six following an ATS victory. 

While I won’t be so bold as to predict an outright upset, I do think that coach Chuck Martin and his staff can keep this one competitive. Grab as many points as you can, play on Miami Ohio.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Kansas City Chiefs (8:30 EST).

The 8-6 Denver Broncos are in Kansas City to take on the 10-4 Chiefs on Christmas Day and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

Denver comes in off a disheartening 16-3 home loss to New England, while KC also enters off a brutal 19-17 setback to the Titans last week.

But if recent history is an evidence, then the Chiefs have to be liking their chances for a bounce back performance here, as they’d beat the Broncos in Denver 30-27 in OT in Week 12. 

The Broncos started the season strong, but have been consistently inconsistent over the last two months. Last week QB Trevor Siemian had 283 yards, no TD’s and one INT. RB Jordan Norwood would fumble the ball twice, part of three total turnovers in the game for the defending champs.

The defense continues to be Denver’s strong point, last week holding Tom Brady to just 188 passing yards and no TD’s. The unit concedes just 18.4 PPG overall.

But I think that defense has a letdown here against the dangerous Chiefs offense which is itching to take out its frustrations on someone after last week’s collapse. 

KC actually had a 17-7 halftime lead, but was unable to score in the second half against Tennesse and it eventually blew it. QB Alex Smith was just 15 of 28 for 163 yards, zero TD’s and one INT. 

I like Smith to bounce back here though, note that the Chiefs average 22.8 PPG, which ranks them 15th overall. 

But the biggest difference maker for me today is KC’s underappreciated defensive unit, one which concedes just 19.6 PPG, ranked eighth overall. 

And from a trend based stand point, this one absolutely sets up great for the home side, as note that Denver is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records and only 1-5 ATS in its last six divisional games, while KC is 5-0 ATS in its last five following an ATS loss, 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records.

Denver’s defense is amazing, but as good as it is, is as bad as the offense is, managing just one TD over the last two games combined. And now the Broncos face one of the best defenses in the league in a critical game on national TV on its own field (note that KC has given up just one passing TD over its last three outings). 

All five of the Chiefs home victories this year have come by at least five points and I expect that and the rest of the trends listed above, to continue on Christmas Day.

Play on Kansas City as my 2016/17 NFL Game Of The Year!

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New Orleans Saints (4:25 EST).

The 8-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in New Orleans to take on the 6-8 Saints and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Tampa Bay lost 26-20 to Dallas last Sunday, while the Saints come off a hard-fought 48-41 road win at Arizona last week. 

Note that the Saints play with revenge today after falling 16-11 to the Bucs two weeks ago.

Tampa’s playoff hopes took a big hit last week, it’s now tied with Green Bay on the outside of the Wildcard picture. Note the Bucs are conceding an average of 24 PPG, ranked 18th overall, while posting 22.4 per game, placing them 18th in the league.

Last week Saints’ QB Drew Brees had 389 yards, four TD’s and no INT’s. Suffice it to say, I expect the veteran to carry that momentum over here. 

And I’ll point out that Tampa is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten “dome” games, while New Orleans is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 in revenging a loss against an opponent.

I think the stage is now set for a big Tampa letdown and I look for Brees and company to take full advantage. Lay the points with confidence.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* NFL Week 16 Las Vegas Insider is on the Buf Bills at 1:00 ET.

The Dolphins won 34-13 in frigid New Jersey last Saturday night, improving to 9-5. They currently own the No. 6 seed in the AFC playoff picture, the second of two wild cards. Miami stays on the road this Sunday and travels to upstate New York to take on the Buffalo Bills, who at 7-7, have about a one percent chance of making the playoffs. It will again be cold (expected to be in the 30s) but not nearly as bad as last Saturday night.

The Dolphins’ six-game winning streak was snapped 38-6 by the Ravens in Week 13 but Miami rebounded with a 26-23 win over the Cardinals in Week 14. However, the Dolphins lost starting QB Ryan Tannehill to a left knee injury in that contest. The Dolphins selected Tannehill in the first round of the 2012 draft and he had started the first 77 games of his career but it was Matt Moore who took place last Saturday against the Jets. Moore went 3-of-5 for 47 yards and directed the game-winning drive  (ended in a FG) against the Cards but he entered the game against the Jets having attempted just 35 passes since the start of the 2012 season. Surprisingly, in tough conditions, he completed 12 of 18 for 236 yards with four TD passes and one INT (126.2 QB rating!).

The Bills jumped at the opportunity to hire Rex Ryan after the 2014 season, when he was fired by the Jets. I was never quite sure why, as he had gone 26-38 the previous four years with New York, without a winning season. As he is prone to do, Rex opened his “big fat mouth” right away, promising to return the Bills to the playoffs (Buffalo’s last postseason appearance came back in 1999). Well, after an 8-8 season last year, the Bills are 7-7 in 2016 and as noted earlier, have about a one-percent chance of making this year’s postseason field. Ryan is supposed to be a “defensive guy,” yet his Bills are a middle-of-the-pack 16th in yards allowed (349.2 YPG) and 14th in points allowed (22.4 PPG). I’m not quite sure what to make of QB Trod Taylor, as he hasn’t made many mistakes (14-6 ratio) and is an excellent runner (520 yards on 6.3 YPC with six TDs) but the Bills rank 31st (of 32 teams) in passing at 182.6 YPG. They are the NFL’s top rushing team, (163.6 YPG on 5.5 YPC), led by RB McCoy, who has 1,129 yards on 5.5 YPC with 12 TDs.

It seems highly unlikely that Moore will repeat last week’s heroics plus RB Ajayi, who had back-to-back 200-year rushing games in Weeks 6 & 7 (as well as an 111-yard effort in his next game), has not reached 80 yards rushing in any of his last six outings. He’s averaged only 51.3 YPG (on 3.0 YPC) over his last four. Meanwhile, the Bills (the league's No. 1 rushing team) will be up against a Miami rush D which ranks 30th against the run, allowing 132.5 YPG on 4.8 YPC. The Dolphins have lost at Buffalo by 16, 19 and 19 points the past three years, while compiling a woeful total of just 27 points (9.0 per!). Last week’s ATS win at the Jets marked just Miami’s second cover in its last 14 December games. The Bills earn a top rating of 10*s in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Armed Forces Bowl PERFECT STORM is on Louisiana Tech (4:30 EST). 

The 8-5 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are playing against the 9-4 Navy Midshipmen in the Armed Forces Bowl on Friday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Bulldogs.

Louisiana Tech will be especially motivated in this one I think after dropping its last two, most recently falling 58-44 to WKU in the Conference USA title game. 

The Midshipmen can empathize, they also come in having lost two straight, most recently to Temple in the AAC Championship game. Navy lost its starting QB in the final regular season game and then its starting RB suffered an injury in the Championship game.

Suffice it to say, I think the Bulldogs take advantage. 

The Midshipmen are ranked 22nd in the country in scoring with 37.5 PPG, but as just mentioned, that offense has recently taken a major hit. 

Louisiana Tech puts up 44 points and concedes 32.7. QB Ryan Higgins has 4,208 passing yards and a 37:8 TD/INT ratio. 

And that doesn’t bode well for a medicore Navy defense which allows 30.4 PPG. 

I’ll also point out that Louisiana Tech is 7-0 ATS in its last seven after allowing more than 40 points in its previous contest, while Navy is 0-4 ATS in its last four against teams with winning records.

If Navy had its starting QB under center, I’d likely think differently about this one. However, that’s not the case. The Bulldogs’ high-flying offense is going to prove to be too much for the Midshipmen to keep up to down the stretch in my opinion. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Bahamas Bowl PERFECT STORM is on Eastern Michigan (1:00 EST).

The 7-5 Eastern Michigan Eagles are playing the 9-3 Old Dominion Monarchs on Friday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Eagles.

EMU finished fourth in the MAC West, while ODU finished 7-1 in conference play.

The Eagles are playing in their first bowl game since 1987. QB Brogan Roback had 2,394 passing yards and a 16:6 TD/INT ratio after missing the first three games of the year.

EMU posted an average of 30.4 PPG, ranked 58th overall, while conceding 30.3 PPG, ranked 80th.

The Monarchs are playing their first-ever bowl game. QB David Washington had 2,648 yards and a 28:4 TD/INT ratio. ODU would go on to finish 27th in the nation in scoring with an average of 36 PPG, while conceding 27.8 PPG, ranked 64th.

I’ll point out though that EMU is 6-2 ATS as an underdog this year and 3-1 ATS in non-conference games, while ODU is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 non-conference contests. 

With the extra time off to prepare, I think that Roback and company can take this one down to the wire. Play on Eastern Michigan.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Philadelphia Eagles (8:25 EST).

The 10-4 New York Giants are in Philadelphia to take on the 5-9 Eagles and despite having been eliminated from contention already, I think this one favors the home side.

New York is looking to grab the top wildcard spot in the NFC, but plays its final two games of the year on the road, where it’s just 3-3 so far.

The Giants most recently beat the Lions 17-6 at home on Sunday, but the Eagles also play with revenge today after dropping the first meeting of the year 28-23. 

New York’s weak point is its offense. Last week Eli Manning was 20 of 28 for 201 yards, two TD’s and no picks. But on the season the offense averages just 320.6 YPG, including only 81.2 on the ground. The Giants get the job done on the defensive end, conceding just 17.9 PPG. 

Philadelphia had a chance to keep its playoff hopes alive last week, but QB Carson Wentz’s pass to Jordan Matthews for a two point conversion was tipped at the line. I think the Eagles and Wentz come out fired up this week. RB Ryan Mathews had 128 yards on 20 carries and a TD. 

The Eagles rank ninth overall in rushing yards with 112.9 per game, but are just 24th in passing YPC at 227.5. Defensively they’re ranked in the middle of the pack, conceding 344.2 YPG, 12th overall.

I’ll point out that New York is just 2-3 ATS on the road this season and only 5-7 ATS in its last 12 after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Philadelphia is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 after two or more consecutive SU losses and 4-2 ATS this year when playing in front of the home town crowd.

The Eagles won’t be rolling over today and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Philadelphia.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Colorado State.

The 7-5 Colorado State Rams battle the 8-4 Idaho Vandals in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl on Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Rams.

Colorado State won four of its last five games, while Idaho won its final four in the regular season. 

The Rams looked impressive in their final game, smashing SDSU 63-31. QB Nick Stevens posted a season-high four TD’s in the victory. CSU also features a strong run game, led by Izzy Matthews and Dalyn Dawkins. The Rams would finish the season averaging 34.1 PPG, ranked 31st in the country. The defense was not the strength of the team, but it was decent, conceding just 27.8 PPG in the end. 

The Vandals will likely be playing their final bowl game in quite some time as the team will drop from FBS to FCS next year. QB Matt Linehan had over 2,800 yards passing, 15 TD’s and ten INT’s. Like the Rams, Idaho features a strong running tandem in Aaron Duckworth and Isaiah Saunders.

The Vandals though posted just 28.2 PPG, which placed them 68th overall.

Their defense was a strong point, allowing 29.8 PPG, ranked 77th. 

I’ll point out though that Colorado State is 14-3-1 ATS in its last 18 non-conference games, while Idaho is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 against teams with winning records. 

I think the Rams are going to be able to contain this rather vanilla Vandals’ offense, while at the same time, I expect Colorado State’s superior offensive unit to prove to be too much for Idaho to keep up with down the stretch. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Wyoming (9:00 EST).

The 8-5 Wyoming Cowboys get ready to battle the 8-4 BYU Cougars in the Poinsettia Bowl on Wednesday night and for a number of different reasons I think this one favors Wyoming. 

BYU won its final four games, while Wyoming lost to SDSU in the Mountain West Championship game. 

It was “oh so close” for the Cowboys against the Aztecs, but in the end they’d fall 27-24. QB Josh Allen threw an uncharacteristic two INT’s in the setback. He also had three TD’s. RB Brian Hill had 1,213 yards on the season, ranking him fourth in the country. 

Note that Wyoming averages 37.1 PPG, which ranks 24th overall. The defense has been the weak point, conceding 34.8 PPG. 

But that defense catches a break in facing a BYU team which will be without the services of starting QB Taysom Hill, who suffered a season-ending injury in the final game of the campaign. That means that Tanner Mangum will get the call. Mangum is a competent replacement, finishing with 3,377 yards, 23 TD’s and ten INT’s last year. 

That said though, clearly he’s been thrust into the spotlight tonight and I think he’s going to stumble on the national stage. And note, BYU wasn’t fantastic offensively anyways, averaging 30 PPG, which ranks 62nd. The defense was the strong point, ranked 15th in conceding an average of 19.4 PPG. 

I’ll point out though that Wyoming is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games while BYU is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten non-conference contests.

The Cowboys feature a dynamic offense, one which I think the Cougars will have a hard time matching pace against. Losing Hill is significant and a factor which I think the books haven’t properly taken into account. Grab as many points as you can, play on Wyoming.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Boca Raton Bowl Blowout Special is on Western Kentucky (7:00 EST).

The 8-4 Memphis Tigers are battling the 10-3 WKU Hilltoppers in the Boca Raton Bowl on Tuesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Western Kentucky.

WKU is coming off its second straight Conference USA championship after topping Louisiana Tech 58-44 in the title game. 

Memphis won three of its final four, including a 48-44 upset over Houston in its regular season finale.

Tigers’ QB Riley Ferguson threw for 3,326 yards this year and leads an offense which averaged 39.5 PPG. Memphis would also go on to allow just 27 PPG. 

The Hilltopers defense ranks No. 29 nationally in opponent yards per play (5.12). They also rank 39th nationally in total points per game at just 24.1. QB Mike White is the focal point of an offense that averages 517.4 yards per game and 45.1 points per contest (that’s second overall in the country). 

WKU has held three of its last five opponents to under ten points and recorded five sacks against Louisiana Tech in the C-USA Championship game. 

I’ll point out that Memphis is just 1-4 ATS in its last five neutral site games, while WKU is 5-1 ATS in its last six following a SU victory.

Ultimately I think that WKU is more tested, it’s non-conference schedule was tough, featuring games against the likes of Alabama and Vanderbilt. I have a hard time seeing Memphis keeping pace and look for the Hilltoppers to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Washington Redskins (8:30 EST).

The 5-8 Carolina Panthers are in the nation’s capital to take on the 7-5-1 Redskins and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

The Panthers have been relegated to the spoiler role, while Washington is still fighting for a Wild Card spot. Washington is primed for a big day in front of the home town crowd in my opinion after dropping two of its last three contests by single-digit margins on the road. 

Carolina will most likely be without star LB Luke Kuechly once again. Note that the Panthers have only won once on the road this year.

In last week’s home win over San Diego, Cam Newton posted an unspectacular 160 yards passing, one TD and a pick. Carolina looked pretty good defensively, but the secondary has been “hit-or-miss” all season. 

And that secondary will be tested early and often by Washington QB Kirk Cousins, who has over 4,000 yards passing this year. 

I’ll point out that Carolina is just 1-8-1 ATS in its last ten on the road, while Washington is 8-2 ATS in its last ten against teams with losing records. 

It’s do or die for the Redskins and I think Cousins will be able to easily exploit the Panthers’ third worst pass defense in the NFL. I look for the visitors go through the motions today and for the motivated home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable cover.

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Tulsa (2:30 EST).

Central Michigan and Tulsa get ready to battle in the Miami Beach Bowl on Monday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Golden Hurricane. 

The Chippewas are going to struggle to keep pace with Tulsa in my opinion, CMU enters this one averaging 27 PPG. The Golden Hurricane on the other hand average 41 PPG. 

It’s interesting to note that Tulsa has scored more than 31 points in every game this year, except a three-point performance in a blowout loss to Ohio State. 

Central Michigan has a decent defense, but I think it will have a hell of a time trying to slow down Tulsa RB’s D’Angelo Brewer and James Flanders, both who rushed for over 1,300 yards this year while combining for 24 TD’s. 

As Cooper Rush goes, so go the Chips. Central Michigan would back its way into the bowl season, going 5-2 to open the year, but then losing four of its final five. Over those last five games the Chips managed 17, 24, 17, 27 and 21 points. 

In his final regular seaosn game, Rush had just 256 yards with no TD’s and an INT. Rush would close the season with 13 INT’s total. 

Tulsa was 9-3 and ended the season with two straight wins. QB Dane Evans had over 3,000 yards and 27 TD’s. But as mentioned above, the run game is even better, with Flanders leading the way with 1,529 yards and 17 TD’s.

Note that the Golden Hurricane rank sixth in the country in yards per game at 523.2 YPG. 

I’ll also point out that CMU is 1-4 ATS in its last five following a SU loss, while Tulsa is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine following an ATS loss. 

This is a big mismatch and I’m expecting a rout from start to finish. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry