My 9* Big Ten Game of the Month is on Minnesota at 12:00 ET.

8-0 Penn St is ranked 5th in the AP poll but entered the first College Football Playoff rankings at fourth, a first-ever for the school. Penn St's last game was an Oct 26 win at Michigan St (28-7), so the Nittany Lions head to Minneapolis with a week of rest. Like Penn St, Minnesota is also 8-0 (both are 5-0 in the Big Ten but Penn St is in the East and Minnesota in the West) and the Golden Gophers are also coming off a bye week. Minnesota routed Maryland 52-10 on Oct 26,  reaching 8-0 for the first time since 1941 (note: Minnesota has not started a season 9-0 in 115 years!).

Penn St is tied with Ohio St in the East and will meet the Buckeyes, who were No. 1 in the 1st CFP rankings, at Columbus on Nov 23. However, that upcoming game with the Buckeyes won't mean as much if the Lions cannot solve the Gophers.Sophomore QB Sean Clifford is second in the Big Ten in passing yards (1,931) and TDs (20), while throwing just three INTs. The Penn St running game is nothing special, averaging 172.4 YPG (57th). Freshman Noah Cain leads a fleet of running backs with 350 yards (hardly impressive). However, Penn St is averaging 38.5 PPG (13th) and that's "plenty good enough" with the team's OUTSTANDING defense. Penn St will enter TCF Bank Stadium allowing just 9.6 PPG (2nd) on 280.5 YPG (10th).

Minnesota head coach PF Fleck came to national prominence when he "rowed the boat" at Western Michigan in 2016 when the Broncos completed an undefeated regular season at 12-0 (first for WMU since 1941). WMU then defeated Ohio in the MAC Championship Game for its first conference championship since 1988. Fleck and the Broncos lost to Wisconsin in the 2017 Cotton Bowl Classic 24-16 and it was then "on to Minnesota." The Golden Gophers were just 5-7 in 2017 but a bowl win in 2018 gave them an 7-6 record. 2019 has been a breakout season, although Penn St will be the first ranked team Minnesota has faced. QB Tanner Morgan has similar numbers to Clifford, completing 65.3% for for 1,761 yards with 18 TDs and four INTs. Minnesota's running game is better than Penn St's, averaging 204.5 YPG (31st), led by senior Rodney Smith (889 YR / 5.8 YPA / 7 TDs), who has rushed for at least 100 yards in all five Big Ten games. Minnesota's D is allowing just 283.8 YPG (13th) but has allowed 20.0 PPG, about 10 1/2 points more per game than Penn St.

The QB matchup is 'a push,' but Minnesota has the  best RB in the game (Smith). Take note that Penn St's offense has slowed, averaging under 300 YPG its last three games, while scoring just 24.3 PPG (that's two TDs below its season average). I'm 'rowing the boat' with Fleck by "taking the points" with Minnesota.

Good luck....Larry

My 9* AFC West Game of the Month is on the Oak Raiders at 8:20 ET.

The 4-5 LA Chargers and the 4-4 Oakland Raiders are still both 'alive' for a playoff spot in the AFC but both teams will need to finish strong. The Chargers opened 2-5 but eked out a 17-16 win at Chicago in Week 8 and then played their best game of the year in beating the Packers 26-11 in LA last Sunday (Green Bay entered the game 7-1). The Chargers dominated the first half on both sides of the ball gained 250 yards in the first half, while holding the Packers to just 50 yards. However, LA led just 9-0, before RB Gordon added two rushing TDs and PK Badgley kicked a fourth FG for a 15-point win.

The Raiders went just 4-12 in 2018, in Jon Gruden's 1st year back as the team's head coach. All in all, Oakland has to be happy to be 4-4 midway through its 16-game schedule, as after opening with two home games (a win over Denver and a loss to KC), the Raiders played their next FIVE games away from home (four road games and a contest in London). Oakland's game last Sunday against the Lions was the team's first home game since Sep 15. The Raiders needed a last-second goal-line stand to hold off Detroit 31-24 but moved within a game of the sixth and final playoff slot. "I love this place. It's special," QB Derek Carr said of Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. "To come home in front of them and get a win, especially the way we did it. It would be nice to win something 40-0 some time. But when you win one like this, it does so many good things for a team."

LA fired offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt following the team's 17-16 victory in Chicago and in last Sunday's win over Green Bay, there was clearly more of an effort to run the ball. Melvin Gordon ran for 80 yards and two TDs, while Austin Ekeler added 70 yards, as the Chargers established a season-high of 159 yards rushing against Green Bay. Rivers threw for 294 yards on a season-low 28 attempts but as noted above, the result was LA's best game of the year. Rivers is averaging 292.6 YPG through the air and is well on his way to another 4,000-yard passing season (his 11th in the L12 years) but he's got a modest 12-7 TD-to-INT ratio. LA's defense has been solid all season, ranking 8th in both points allowed (18.7 per) and total D (322.8 YPG).

Rumors were that Gruden and QB Carr were not quite on the same page but Derek Carr is having an excellent season, completing 71.2% for an average of 251.4 YPG with 13 TDs and just 4 INTs (105.1 QB rating). Rookie RB Jacobs (from Alabama) is blossoming into a star, rushing for 740 yards on 4.9 YPA with six TDs. Carr has capable WRs in Williams (23 catches / 15.4 YPC / 5 TDs) and Renfro (24 catches / 10.7 YPC / 2 TDs) but his "go-to" guy has been TE Darren Waller, who leads the team with 48 catches and 548 receiving yards. Oakland's D has been a problem, allowing 27.0 PPG (26th) and an NFL-high 299.9 YPG.

Los Angeles has won four in a row in the series (including a pair of double-digits victories by a combined 46-16 last season) but Oakland is NOT a 4-12 team in 2019. I'm not ready to accept that the Chargers' rushing attack is now back on track because of ONE game, as after all, the Chargers rank 28th in the NFL by averaging 79.4 YPG on the ground on a 3.6 YPA. Meanwhile, Oakland's Jacobs has become the first rookie since Cincinnati's Ickey Woods to rush for two TDs three times in his first eight contests, while to leading a running game averaging 136.4 YPG on the ground (4th). Jacobs and Oakland's OL, which has permitted only one sack the last four weeks, have sure helped Derek Carr in playing mistake-free football. Carr has nine TDs and just one INT over his last five games, while posting QB ratings of 119.2, 125.0 and 116.2 in his last three.

This is a HUGE game for the Raiders, as after the Chargers, they play the Bengals (0-8) and Jets (1-7). Beat the Chargers and the Raiders could reasonably be 7-4 through 11 games!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on Temple at 8:00 ET.

Temple entered the 2019 season off four straight bowl appearances (going 2-2) but began the current season with their THIRD different head coach in four years. Matt Rhule left for Baylor after the 2016 season, Geoff Collins for Ga Tech after 2018 and Temple hired Rod Carey to begin the current season. Carey took North Illinois to FIVE bowls in six years as the school's head coach, although the Huskies lost all five. Temple opened the season 5-1, including wins over then-No. 21 Maryland and then-No. 23 Memphis but consecutive bad losses, 45-21 at then-No. 19 SMU and 63-21 at UCF have put what could have been a special season for the Owls on 'life-support.' The USF Bulls went 11-2 (2016) and 10-2 (2017) but after a 7-0 start in 2018, finished with SIX straight losses. The Bulls opened the 2019 season 1-3 but have rebounded by winning THREE of four to reach 4-4

Temple’s vet QB Russo (1,873 passing yards / 16-8 ratio) has thrown for just 370 yards in the Owls' back-to-back losses, while Temple's ground game was non-existent (114 yards on 1.6 YPA). Temple does have two solid RBs in Davis (655 yards on 4.9 YPA) and Gardner (405 yards on 4.0 YPA), with both scoring five times. It's hard NOT seeing them being able to run against South Florida rush D allowing 199.2 YPG (103rd). Temple's D has been gored the last two games but in the team's 5-1 start, had allowed a modest 19.0 PPG.

USF has used two QBs this season and neither has been effective. Barrett is completing 51.9% with four TDs and two INTs and McCloud is completing 55.6% with 10 TDs and six INTs. The Bulls ran for for 347 yards in beating East Carolina 45-20 but the Pirates are an awful defensive team, allowing 204.3 YPG on the ground. USF's four wins have come over South Carolina St (FCS) plus UConn, ECU and BYU. The BYU victory is the team's "marquee win" and note that the Cougars are only 4-4 (Bulls won just, 27-23 in Tampa). UConn and ECU are a combined 5-13.

USF has has averaged 43.8 PPG in the team's four victories but just 8.5 PPG in losing to Wisconsin, Ga Tech, SMU and Navy. USF led 17-0 at the half last year at Temple, but the Owls came back to win 27-17, with QB Russo passing for 264 yards. I'm looking for Temple to 'shake off' its back-to-back losses and avoid the team's first three-game losing streak since 2014 (Owls' last non-bowl team, which finished 6-6). Temple becomes bowl-eligible with a win here and could be well on its way to matching, or surpassing, last year's eight wins.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MAC ATTACK is on Toledo at 7:00 ET.

The Kent State Golden Flashes do not have much of football hiistory, unless you consider the school's ineptness, noteworthy. Darrell Hazzell led KSU to an 11-3 season in 2012, the school's first winning season since 2001 (6-5). FYI, prior to 2001, KSU had 13 consecutive losing seasons. Hazzell used that 2012 season to get the job at Purdue and by the way, he was fired after 3 1/2 seasons in which he was 9-33. Getting back to KSU, the Golden Flashes have had SIX straight losing season since Hazzell jumped ship, including current head coach Sean Lewis' 2-10 record in 2018 (his first at the school). The Golden Flashes are 3-5 here in 2019. In stark contrast, Toledo has had 21 winning seasons in its last 25. The Rockets entered the current season having posted a winning record in each of the last NINE years (eight bowl trips) and at 5-3, is well on their way to another winning season and bowl appearance in 2019. Both schools have been off since Oct 26, as the month of November brings "MACtion,"with the conference playing a plethora of non-Saturday games through the day after Thanksgiving.

Head coach Sean Lewis started the season with Woody Barrett under center but he was quickly replaced by junior Dustin Crum, a decision that has turned out well. Crum is completing 67.0% for 1,345 yards with 10Tds and just one INT. He is also the team's leading rusher, as KSU is averaging a middle-of-the-road 170.8 YPG on the ground (61st). Kent is averaging only 23.9 PPG (100th) on 365.8 YPG (96th). Defensively, KSU is allowing 30.9 PPG (93rd) on 467.8 YPG (119th).

Toledo has some QB issues, as both Mitchell Guadagni and Carter Bradley are dealing with injuries. Toldeo turned Eli Peters in its last game and Peters completed 9 of 18 for just 138 yards but threw two TDs and zero INTs (note: Peters threw 18 TDs vs 7 INTs in 2018). RB Bryant Koback ran for 259 yards and two TDs in that 37-34 OT win over Eastern Michigan and he has run for 985 yards on the season (6.6 YPC and 8 TDs). Toledo ranks 13th in rushing, averaging 245.0 YPG.

Toledo is NOT in good shape in the highly competitive MAC West but Toledo faces an excellent matchup here, as its excellent running game (see above) faces a KSU rush D which is allowing 128th in the nation at 250.9 YPG. Kent St is 1-4 SU on the road in 2019, getting outscored on average, 36.2-to-17.4 PPG. This marks Kent's first game against a West opponent in 2019 and it can't be ignored that the Golden Flashes are just 1-12 vs West opponents going back to 2014. Series history reveals that Toledo has won 11 of 13 vs Kent since 1988 and that Kent has not won at Toledo since 1977! I noted earlier that Toledo has posted a winning record in each of the last NINE years (eight bowl trips) and the Rockets entered the current season 43-12 SU at home . The Rockets are 4-0 SU and ATS at home in 2019, outscoring opponents on average, 35.2-to-19.8 PPG. Lay the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on the NYG at 8:15 ET.

My 9* SNF Magic is on the Bal Ravens at 8:20 ET.

The New England Patriots have opened 8-0 behind a suffocating defense that is No. 1 in scoring D (7.6 PPG) and total D (234.0 YPG). New England also leads the league with 19 interceptions and 31 sacks. The Pats are No. 1 in turnover differential (plus-17) and have incredibly allowed just 15 third-down conversions in 96 attempts. Brady is not having a vintage season (64.7% for 2,251 yards with 13 TDs and four INTs), while New England's running game is averaging only 95.2 YPG (23rd). However, the Pats lead the NFL with an average of 31.2 PPG. Bill Belichick's team is seeking its first 9-0 start since 2015 when it visit Baltimore for NBC's SNF. The Patriots are 8-1 in the last nine regular-season meetings (6-1 with Brady) with the Ravens, but Baltimore has posted a pair of playoff victories at New England in that span.

The Ravens are 5-2 and lead a division (AFC North) which features three sub-.500 teams (Steelers are in 2nd-place at 3-4). The Ravens were off last week and QB Lamar Jackson threw for a season-low 143 yards in a 30-16 Week 7 win at Seattle. However, he ran for 116 yards and a TD. It was his third 100-yard game of the season to boost his team-leading total to 576. Jackson is the only QB to ever pass for at least 1,500 yards (1,650) and rush for 500 (576 on 6.9 YPC with 3 TDs) in the first seven games of a season. Mark Ingram has rushed for 470 yards (4.7 YPC) and seven TDs. That duo has Baltimore leading the NFL in rushing yards (204.1 YPG on 5.5 YPC) and only New England is averaging more than Baltimore's 30.6 PPG. However, the team's defense is no longer in the mold of the Ray Lewis era, allowing 22.3 PPG on 349.7 YPG (both averages rank 16th).

I could go on and on listing superlatives about New England. The Patriots have already squared off and WON against four QBs drafted in the first round in 2018 and will now face a fifth member from that class in Jackson. What's more, New England has won 21 straight against first- or second-year QBs but as noted above, Lamar Jackson is literally, in a "class by himself" (see above). I noted Baltimore's top-ranked rushing offense above and will add that the Pats allowed 159 rushing yards (7.2 YPC) last Sunday against the Browns. Could Baltimore run the ball and keep it away from Brady. Teams can't "win'em all" and it's tough to ignore that under John Harbaugh, the Ravens are 9-2 SU coming off a bye week. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Oddsmaker's Error G.O.M. is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET.

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the KC Chiefs at 1:00 ET.

The Minnesota Vikings lost 16-6 at Chicago in Week 4, falling to 2-2. In the aftermath of that loss, there were rumblings that the Vikings were depending too much on RB Dalvin Cook and not using their passing game to the fullest. Whether that was the spark or not, Kirk Cousins averaged 325.7 YPG passing with 10 TDs and just one INT the next three games, as the Vikings went 3-0 SU & ATS while averaging 36.0 PPG. Minnesota made it FOUR straight wins in Week 8, although that "W'" in a fairly listless effort over the sad-sack Redskins (Minnesota won 19-9). The Vikings are 6-2 and trail 7-1 Green Bay in the NFC North but also have themselves in excellent wild card position, as they visit Kansas City on Sunday.

The Chiefs opened the season 4-0 behind the marvelous Patrick Mahomes but then got shocked 19-13 at home by the Colts in Week 5 (SNF). A 31-24 home loss to Houston followed and then at Denver in Week 7 (Thursday night), Mahomes dislocated his kneecap. Matt More took over and played well enough for KVC to easily down the Broncos, 30-6. Mahomes was unable to go in KC's Week 8 game at home vs the Packers (SNF) and the Chiefs lost a close one, 31-24 (more later). Mahomes was limited in practice during this week and in the end was ruled out again for this contest. KC is 5-3 and with no other AFC West team above-.500, (Oakland is 3-4 and in 2nd-place), there is NO need to rush Mahomes back.

Dalvin Cook is the league’s leading rusher with 823 yards (5.3 YPC) and an NFL-best nine TDs (Vikings rank 3rd in rushing at 160.1 YPG). Cook also has 29 catches for 293 yards plus WRs Diggs (37 catches / 19.1 YPC / 4 TDs) and Thielen (27 catches / 14.5 YPC / 6 TDs) are also happy now that they are getting more opportunities. Cousins is completing 72.1% for 1,997 yards with 13 TD s and just three INTs. Minnesota's D doesn't remind anyone of "The Purple People Eaters" but it ranks 3rd in allowing 16.5 PPG on 313.9 YPG (5th).

KC's defense has been the team's weak spot but the Chiefs have 13 sacks for 128 yards over the past two games, with an increase in pressure dialed up by new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo being a big reason for it. Overall, the defense is now allowing 22.6 PPG, ranking 16th in a 32-team league. It's hard to list KC offensive numbers with Mahomes sitting out. However, Matt Moore has been solid filling in for last year's MVP. He went 10 of 19 for 117 yards with one TD and zero INTs at Denver and then did his best in trying to stay with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last Sunday night. The hard-fought loss could NOT be blamed on Moore, as he was 24 of 36 for 267 yards with two TDs and again, ZERO interceptions (had a QB rating of 107.1).

Kansas City has lost three of its last four (all by seven points or less), with all three losses coming at Arrowhead Stadium (home teams have struggled league-wide in 2019). Ironically, this is the second straight week that KC faces an old Super Bowl foe. It was a SB I rematch last week with Green Bay and this game with Minnesota is a SB IV rematch. The Chiefs famously beat the Vikings 23-7 in the final Super Bowl before the 1970 merger (remember "65 Toss Power Trap?"). Why am I taking the 'injured' Chiefs here? Kirk Cousins can’t be trusted to make tough throws in a hostile road environment (he's NO Aaron Rodgers) and going back to 2016, the Vikings are 0-11-1 SU & ATS (that's a 100% "go against") in outdoor road games vs winning teams. Good enough for me to "take the points," with Hank Stram 'smiling from up above.'

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on Hawaii at 11:55 ET.

Jeff Tedford came to in 2017 and led a team which went 1-11 in 2016 to a 10-4 record in 2017and then to a 12-2 record in 2018. However, most anticipated that 2019 would be a rebuilding one for the Bulldogs and that has been the case. Fresno is 3-4 overall (1-2 MWC) and travels to Hawaii off a 41-31 home loss to Colorado St. Hawaii checks in at 5-3 (2-2 in MWC) and this contest with Fresno St opens a stretch in which Hawaii will play FOUR of its final five games at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu (13-game schedule).

Fresno State QB Jorge Reyna is completing 62.8% for 1,655 yards with 10 TDs and six INTs.The team has suffered injuries to its RB group and checks in averaging 166.9 YPG (70th). That said, FSU has averaged 33.0 PPG (36th). The problem for FSU in 2019 has been a defense that allowed just 14.1 PPG (2018) and 17.9 (2017), has allowed 31.0 PPG (95th) in 2019.

Hawaii QB Cole McDonald is completing 65.5% for 2,521 yards with 24 TDs and 11 INTs (Hawaii ranks 3rd in the nation, averaging 354.5 YPG through the air). Hawaii's defense is even worse than Fresno's, allowing 35.4 PPG (120th) on 437.8 YPG (104th).

Fresno has won SEVEN of the last eight meetings but TY's Fresno edition only has wins over Sacramento St (FCS), New Mexico St (0-8) and UNLV (2-6). The Rainbow Warriors have a much more balanced offensive attack and are staring down a bowl bid with this contest, as well as home games with San Jose St and Army still to go.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on Nevada at 10:30 ET.

Nevada began 2019 with a 34-31 home upset of Purdue 34-31 as an 11-point home dog. However, the Wolf Pack lost their second game 77-6 at Oregon, which was coming off a late-loss in its season-opener against Auburn. The Wolf Pack then won 19-13 at home vs Weber St and 37-21 on the road at UTEP. Nevada then got lambasted 54-3 at home by Hawaii of Sep 28. The Wolf Pack edged San Jose St 41-38 at home to open October but have since lost 36-10 at Utah St and 31-3 at Wyoming. The Wolf Pack return home this Saturday at 4-4 (1-3 in MWC) to host 2-6 New Mexico (0-4 MWC). The Lobos enter this contest on a five-game slide.

Bob Davie came out of the TV booth/studio to take over at Albuquerque back in 2012. Davie was best known for his poor five-year run at Notre Dame (1997-2001) in which he suffered two losing seasons plus lost bowl games at the end of his three winning years. His first three New Mexico teams went 11-26 but he then but together back-to-back winning seasons (2015 & 2016), losing the New Mexico Bowl in 2015 but winning it in 2016. However, the Lobos went 3-9 in both the 2017 and 2018 seasons, going 1-7 in MWC play each year. The Lobos beat Sam Houston St (FCS ) and New Mexico St (currently 0-8) in its first three games but as noted above, has now lost FIVE in a row. New Mexico owns a solid running game (211.8 YPG ranks 25th) but its defense is among the worst in the nation, allowing 37.6 PPG (126th) on 505.6 YPG (129th).

Nevada's defensive numbers are skewered by allowing 77 points to Oregon and 54 to Hawaii but the team can't hide its offensive weakness. Nevada is averaging just 19.1 PPG (117th) on 357.2 YPG (100th). However, here's the rub. These schools have met just seven times (series is tied 3-3-1) but the home team is 5-1-1. Nevada has owned a solid home advantage here in Mackay Stadium, going 61-28 SU since 2005 and a victory here puts Nevada just ONE win away from bowl eligibility, with games at Fresno St (3-4) and home to UNLV (2-6) still left on the schedule. As for New Mexico, it's time for Davie to go!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on USC at 8:00 ET.

My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on Memphis at 7:30 ET.

Could anyone have possibly imagined at the start of the 2019 season that this Nov 2 game featuring SMU at Memphis would find ESPN's "GameDay" descending on Memphis for its pregame show. However, that's what we have as 8-0 SMU is one just NINE unbeatens in CFB and carries its No. 15 ranking into the Liberty Bowl to battle 7-1 Memphis, which is ranked 24th. In less than two seasons, Sonny Dykes has done what his seven predecessors could not do at SMU, and that is to bring the program back to prominence. SMU is off to its best start since Eric Dickerson and Craig James led that "Pony Express" team to a 10-0 start while playing in the SWC in 1982. Memphis' Mike Norvell is in his fourth season and will have his Tigers in a bowl for the fourth straight year. The question is, what kind of bowl. The winner of this game will likely hold the "inside track" on a New Years' Day Bowl (highest-ranked school from the Group of Five will earn a berth in the Cotton Bowl).

SMU didn't quite meet Dykes' standards last weekend at Houston but the Mustangs never trailed and managed to hold on for a 34-31 victory for their first 4-0 start in conference play since 1986. Texas transfer QB Shane Buechele is completing 63.2% for 2,325 yards (AAC-best 290.6 YPG with 20 TDs and just three INTs. RB Xavier Jones leads SMU with 884 yards rushing (5.4 YPC / 15 TDs) for a team averaging 202.8 YPG on the ground (32nd). That nice balance has seen SMU score at least 34 points in every game and enters the contest ranked sixth nationally in scoring offense (43.0 PPG). Defensively, SMU is no better than middle-of-the pack, allowing 27.8 PPG (67th) on 387.5 YPG (60th).

Memphis knows all about "close calls," after holding on for a 42-41 comeback victory last weekend, when Tulsa's Jacob Rainey missed a 29-yard FG attempt as time expired. As the press release from Memphis' sports information department noted following that one-point victory, "Sometimes, a memorable season needs the assistance of a fortunate break." RB Kenneth Gainwell posted his sixth consecutive 100-yard game and scored a season-high three TDs for the Tigers. He's got 979 yards on the season (7.1 YPC / 11 TDs) and currently owns an FBS-best average of 177.4 scrimmage yards per game. QB Brady White's numbers rank right with Buechele's, completing 69.0% for 2,014 yards with 20 TDs and just four INTs. The Memphis D is better than SMU's, but not by all that much. Memphis is allowing 23.0 PPG (42nd) on 375.0 YPG (54th).

Sure, Memphis was fortunate last week at Tulsa but SMU has also had some good fortune, with FOUR four wins by seven points or less, including a 34-31 win over a 3-5 Houston team last Saturday (note: SMU was outgained 510-385) plus a 43-37 three-OT win back on Oct 5 at HOME, over the same Tulsa team that almost beat Memphis last Saturday (note: Tulsa sits just 2-6). Dykes has done a remarkable job at SMU but this team is 'ripe for the plucking' and Memphis has all the tools to put an end to the Mustangs' perfect season. The Tigers' ONLY loss of 2019 was a two-point one at Temple, when the Tigers committed FOUR turnovers. Memphis has been great at home under Norvell, going 18-4 SU in his tenure, including 4-0 in 2019, outscoring opponents on average, 38.0-to-18.5 PPG. Looking for a 'clincher?' How about two? Memphis has won FIVE straight over SMU (average score 43-13) and under Norvell (1st season was 2016), Memphis is 10-1 SU and ATS (that's 91%), in the month of November, averaging 49.0 PPG.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Oddsmaker's Error Game of the Month is on Washington at 4:00 ET.

Washington opened the season ranked 13th in the AP's preseason poll, while Utah checked in right behind them at No. 14. However, as the two Pac-12 schools meet Saturday in Seattle, Utah is ranked 9th in the latest AP poll (7-1 / 3-1 in Pac-12), while Washington is unranked at 5-3 (2-3 in Pac-12). Utah vists Washington in the midst of a dominating defensive stretch, holding opponents to just 23 points during a four-game winning streak, while scoring 146 points (36.5 PPG). The streak began after the Utes lost their lone game of 2019, 30-23 at USC on Sep 20. The Huskies are coming off a bye week, getting a much-need break after losing 35-31 at home against now-No. 7 Oregon on Oct 19 (Washington led 28-14 and 31-21 in that one).

Utah's D gets most of the attention (10.2 P PG ranks 4th and 231.2 YPG ranks 3rd), as the Utes have held four teams to seven or fewer points this season. However, Utah's offense is averaging 33.1 PPG (38th) on 452.4 YPG (30th). Senior QB Tyler Huntley is completing 73.1 percent of his passes for 1,778 yards and 10 TDs, while throwing just one interception. He is the 5th QB in program history to top 6,000 career yards (6,037). Senior RB Zack Moss (728 rushing yards / 6.6 YPC / 10 TDs) has set records for career rushing TDs (33) and career 100-yard games (15) plus holds the Utah's career rushing yardage mark of 3,379.

Obviously, Washington is a disappointment with three losses but head coach Chris Petersen has had a bye week to prepare for the challenge of moving the ball against the Utes. Washington QB Jacob Eason was the 2016 National Gatorade Player of the Year and began his career at Georgia. He's thrown three or more TD passes in four different games, completing 67.4 percent for 1,981 yards,with 16 TDs and just three INTs. He's supported by a deep group of RBs, three of whom have more than 325 yards rushing. Ahmed is the best of the group (663 RY / 5.8 YPC / 7 TDs). Washington is averaging 35.8 PPG (28th) and most teams would be happy with a defense allowing 21.5 PPG (33rd).

Hopes of a Pac-12 title are pretty much 'dead' (Huskies are 2-3 in the Pac-12 North while the Ducks are 5-0) but Petersen is a quality coach and Washington a quality program which will play with plenty of pride. Utah was not able to win at USC (allowed 30 points) and the Huskies have totally dominated the Utes in this series, winning 12 of 13 all-time meetings. The home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on Florida at 3:30 ET.

No. 6 Florida and No. 8 Georgia square off in Jacksonville on Saturday. The programs first met in 1915 and have played every season since 1926 except for a war-time interruption in 1943. It is one of the most prominent rivalry games in college football, and has been held in Jacksonville, Florida since 1933, with only two exceptions, making it one of the few remaining neutral-site rivalries in college football. It's earned it the nickname of the "World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party." The winner of this game will gain the inside track to the SEC East Division title and a spot in the SEC championship game (Dec 7).

Both teams were off last week and Georgia enters 6-1 (3-1 in the SEC). Recent series history tells us that the team that rushes for the most yards will win the rivalry contest. The team that has won the rushing battle has won this matchup each of the past 13 years, which could be good news for a Georgia. RB Swift has 752 yards rushing (6.8 YPC / 7 TDs) and leads a Georgia rushing game that is tops in the SEC, averaging 238.4 YPG (ranks 16th nationally). QB Jake Fromm is now a junior but while he's completing 70.7% of his passes, he has a modest nine TD passes (just three INTs), after producing ratios of 24-7 as a freshman and 30-6 as a sophomore. The Bulldogs do own an outstanding defense, allowing just 10.6 PPG (5th) on 267.1 YPG (7th).

It's unlikely that Florida will out-rush Georgia, as the Gators leading rusher is Perine (a modest 460 yards / 4.6 YPC) and team is averaging only 142.8 YPG (90th). However, the Gators may just have an edge at QB (I believe they do), as since taking over for the injured Feleipe Franks, junior Kyle Trask has passed for 1,351 yards and 13 TDs (just 4 INTs) while completing 67.1 percent of his passes.It sure helps that he has a deep set of receivers, as Florida is one of three FBS schools (Eastern Michigan and Washington State are the others) to have four players with at least 275 receiving yards, at least 20 receptions and at least two TDs. Florida's D may not quite be in Georgia's class but the Gators are allowing just 15.8 PPG (12th) on 323.4 YPG (25th).

Both schools have one loss, with each losing on the same day (Oct 12). Florida lost a 42-28 decision at now-No. 1 LSU, while Georgia lost 20-17 in double overtime at HOME against South Carolina (Bulldogs were a three-TD favorite). The Gators' 42-28 loss at LSU was MUCH closer than the final score. Dan Mullen was concerned about the Gators' inability to put points on the board in their last four drives, including two fourth-quarter trips inside LSU's 20-yard line. Trask threw a costly end-zone interception with about 7 1/2 minutes left in the game, with Florida trailing only 35-28. After blown coverage gave up a 54-yard TD pass for LSU, the Gators again drove the length of the field, only to be stopped on four straight plays with a 1st-and-goal at the LSU two-yard-line! Meanwhile, Georgia's home loss to South Carolina (Gamecocks are currently 3-5, after losing 41-21 to a bad Tennessee team), was just plain embarrassing. Fromm threw THREE interceptions and Georgia's offense was only able to put up 17 points against a defense that has since allowed 38 points at home to Florida and 41 points at Tennessee.

Florida dominated then-No. 7 Auburn, holding an offense that has averaged 34.2 PPG on 415.4 YPG to 13 points and 269 yards in an 11-point win. Then, as noted above, Florida went toe-to-toe at LSU. In contrast, in Georgia lone game games vs a ranked opponent (at home against then-No. 7 Notre Dame), the Bulldogs barely got by, winning 23-17 (as 15.5-point favorite), as Fromm passed for just 187 yards. That win hardly looks impressive now, after Michigan exposed Notre Dame as a 'fraud,' routing the Fighting Irish 45-14 last Saturday. My bet says Fla handles Ga in this one and best of all, we are getting about a TD!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* NFL Thursday Showdown is on the Arz Cardinals at 8:20 ET.

Jim Harbaugh took over the San Francisco 49ers in 2011 and led them to THREE straight NFC championship games and one Super Bowl. However, after an 8-8 season in 2014, both Harbaugh and the 49ers had had enough of each other. Tomsula lasted one season (5-11) and Kelly one (2-14), before Kyle Shanahan was hired. His 49ers went 6-10 and 4-12 his first two seasons but San Francisco now sits atop the NFC West at 7-0., joining the AFC's New England Patriots (8-0) as one of just TWO unbeatens in NFL 2019. The 49ers were among the early surprises in the NFC but they have now emerged as one of the front-runners to reach the Super Bowl. San Francisco permitted just 10 points in three straight wins (Weeks 5-7) and then BLASTED the visiting Carolina Panthers (who came in on a 4-0 SU & ATS run) in Week 8, 51-13 last Sunday, Arizona's 1st-year head coach Kliff Kingsbury’ got off to an 0-3-1 start in 2019 but the Cards rattled off three consecutive victories in Weeks 5 through 7, before coming back to earth in a 31-9 drubbing at New Orleans this past Sunday. Thursday's matchup will offer an intriguing subplot, featuring a showdown between the top-two picks in this year's NFL Draft, No. 1 pick QB Kyler Murray of Arizona and No. 2 pick Nick Bosa.(DE) of San Francisco.

Bosa earned a spot in the history books last week by becoming the third rookie to record at least three sacks and an interception in one game since the sack became an official stat in 1982. San Francisco's defense ranks 1st in total D (224.4 YPG) and 2nd in points allowed (11.0 PPG). QB Jimmy Garoppolo gets plenty of kudos for record as a starter (15-2 / 13-2 with SF) but his numbers are pretty average in 2019 (217.0 YPG with 9 TDs and 7 INTs). His receiving corps is fairly average as well but the team's running game ranks second in the NFL with 181.1 YPG. Little-known RBs like Breida (446 yards / 5.3 YPC) and Mostert (309 yards / 5.7 YPC) have seen former Atlanta Falcon Tevin Coleman really start to make a difference. He ran for 105 yards (9.5 YPC) with three TDs plus had a TD catch last Sunday vs the Panthers. Coleman missed three games earlier but now has 332 yards on 4.7 YPC with five TDs.

In stark contrast to San Francisco's running game, Arizona is dealing with some serious issues in its backfield due to injuries to its top RBs, David Johnson (ankle) and Chase Edmonds (hamstring). Those injuries necessitated the acquisition of Kenyan Drake from Miami on Monday. "I think Kenyan can come in and do some things that can fit what we need right now,” Kingsbury said of Drake, who rushed for 535 yards and had a career-high 53 receptions last season with the Dolphins. Murray is averaging 248.5 yards passing, completing 63.% with seven TDs and 4 INTs, while also rushing for 279 yards (two TDs). Arizona is averaging only 21.2 PPG (20th), more than a TD less then San Francisco (29.6 PPG) plus the Cards' D has struggled, ranking 29th in both points allowed (27.9) and yards allowed (407.1).

At first blush, the 49ers are CLEARLY a better team than the Cards. Yes, the Cards won three in a row before their loss to the Saints, but those wins cane over the Bengals, Falcons and Giants (that trio is a combined 3-21). However, the Cards are surely a better team than the Redskins, who at home in Week 7, lost just 9-0 to these 49ers. Aloso looming over this game is the fact that the Cards have beaten the 49ers EIGHT straight times, holding San Francisco to 18 points or less in the last FOUR meetings! I'm taking the "big points" with this division home dag!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the KC Chiefs at 8:20 ET.

This Week 8 SNF game on NBC was expected to be a celebration of two of the NFL's storied franchises, the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs, teams that played in the first Super Bowl. The teams feature two transcendent QBs, Aaron Rodgers of Green Bay and Patrick Mahomes of Kansas City. However, Mahomes, the NFL's reigning MVP dislocating his kneecap in last week’s 30-6 win at Denver. He remarkably practiced in a limited capacity on Wednesday and Thursday but Matt Moore is expected to start in his place. The Packers are atop the NFC Central at 6-1, but the Vikings loom at 6-2. The 5-2 Chiefs have some 'breathing room' in the AFC West, as Oakland is 3-3, while Denver and San Diego lag at 2-5.

Rodgers 'lit up' the Raiders last Sunday, passing for 429 yards and five TDs, plus added a rushing TD in a 42-24 win over Oakland in Green Bay. Rodgers is completing 64.8% for 2,109 yards with a 13-2 ratio, despite the fact that the team's best WR, Davante Adams (turf toe), has missed the last three games (all GB wins). He’s likely to sit out again on Sunday plus TE Jimmy Graham and WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling are both battling ankle injuries (both are expected to play). Even Rodgers is not 100 percent, as he's playing with a tweaked knee. Rodgers has been effective despite the fact that the Packers have failed to crack 80 rushing yards in FOUR of their seven contests. Green Bay ranks 20th with 99.3 YPG on the ground. The Green Bay D allows 381.0 YPG (26th) but is somehow holding opponents to 19.9 PPG (9th).

Kansas City possesses the No. 3 offense in the league in both points scored (28.9 PPG) and total yards (400.4 YPG). Like Green Bay, KC gets very little from its rushing game, which averages only 82.3 YPG (25th). Of course, without Mahomes (65.1%, averaging 323.1 YPG with a 15-1 ratio), some of the team's offensive prowess will be affected. However, expect KC to get more creative. RBs LeSean McCoy and Damien Williams have more talent than they shown in 2019 plus WR Tyreek Hill is back making 'waves,' while TE Travis Kelce leads the team in receptions (38) and receiving yards (541). Kansas City’s defense has been maligned but the Chiefs have forced turnovers in SIX of their seven contests, including four games with multiple takeaways.

Green Bay has only been a road favorite FOUR times the last two seasons (1st time in 2019 in this contest), going 2-2 SU, with both wins coming in OT. I expect KC to 'circle the wagons' here on this Sunday night game behind Matt Moore. Note that KC has SEVEN players averaging between 13.4 and 17.7 YPC. Moore will be "good enough," here. Take the points but I don't expect we'll need them.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Car Panthers at 4:05 ET.

Jim Harbaugh took over the San Francisco 49ers in 2011 and led them to THREE straight NFC championship games and one Super Bowl. However, after an 8-8 season in 2014, both Harbaugh and the 49ers had had enough of each other. Tomsula lasted one season (5-11) and Kelly one (2-14), before Kyle Shanahan was hired. His 49ers went 6-10 and 4-12 his first two seasons but San Francisco now sits atop the NFC West at 6-0. The 49ers will welcome the Carolina Panthers to San Francisco for this Week 8 contest, as one of two undefeated teams in the league. The Panthers entered 2019 off a 7-9 season and opened 0-2 but Carolina has rallied to win four straight (4-0 ATS).

San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo gets plenty of hype (more in a bit) but what about Carolina's Kyle Allen? He took over for the injured Cam Newton and Allen is the first QB in the Super Bowl era to win his first five starts without throwing an interception (his first start in that stretch came at the end of the 2018 season / 4-0 in 2019). Allen is hardly prolific but he's completing 65.6% for an average of 226.8 YPG with seven TDs and zero INTs, giving him a QB rating of 106.0. Christian McCaffrey is arguably the best all-purpose back in the NFL with 618 rushing yards (4.9 YPC / 7 TDs) and 35 catches for 305 yards (2 TDs). He ranks second in the league in yards from scrimmage (923) and is tied for the NFL lead with nine TDs. Few think of Carolina as an offensive team but the Panthers rank 5th at 27.7 PPG. The team's defensive numbers are middle-of-the-road (22.2 PPG allowed ranks 15th and 344.0 YPG allowed ranks 12th) but Carolina has forced 15 turnovers, second to only New England's 22.

Speaking of defenses, the 49ers' defense is in the midst of a truly dominant stretch. San Francisco is coming off a 9-0 win at Washington and the 49ers have held THREE straight opponents to seven points or less, plus to fewer than 200 total yards (note: SF is only the SIXTH team to do so since 1990!). The 49ers currently rank second in both points allowed (10.7 per) and yards allowed (223.5 per). QB Jimmy Garoppolo keeps getting credit for his record as a starting QB and he should. He was 2-0 in New England subbing for Tom Brady and has now opened 12-2 with San Francisco. However, he's got a modest 19-14 TD-to-INT ratio in his 14 games as the Niners' starting QB, including a 7-6 ratio in 2019, with San Francisco ranking 25th in passing yards (214.5 per) thi season. The San Francisco D and its unsung running game (ranks 2nd at 172.7 YPG with virtual unknowns) has been the real key to the team's success.

Garoppolo is NOT a polished QB (see above numbers TY) and his receiving corps is below average. Meanwhile, the Panthers have taken off since Kyle Allen replaced a hobbled Cam Newton (note: Carolina was 0-8 in Newton’s last eight starts). He is efficient and the Panthers have rallied around him. Carolina is 11-5 as a road dog the last four-plus seasons (2-0 in 2019) and the Panthers have won SIX straight meetings with the 49ers, including a 23-3 victory in their last trip to San Francisco in 2017. It's also possible that the 49ers could be 'peeking ahead' to next Thursday's NFC West game at Arizona. Take the points but I seen an OUTRIGHT win by Carolina.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Oddsmaker's Error Game of the Year is on the Phi Eagles at 1:00 ET.

The Philadelphia Eagles 'limp' into Buffalo for a Week 8 game with a 3-4 record, after getting crushed 37-10 in Dallas last Sunday night. Welcoming the Eagles will be the Buffalo Bills, who at 5-1, are off to their best start since the 2008 season.This marks Philly's THIRD straight road game, as prior to the loss to Dallas, Philly lost 38-20 at Minnesota. Philadelphia is 1-3 on the road in 2019, allowing 31.5 PPG. Turnovers have led to slow starts in each of the last two games for the Eagles, who have been outscored 51-17 in the first two quarters in losses to Minnesota and Dallas. Mistakes need to be held to a minimum versus Buffalo, as the Bills rank 3rd in both scoring (15.2 PPG) and overall D (292.7 YPG). The Bills returned from a Week 6 bye to win 31-21 at home vs the winless Dolphins in Week 7.

Carson Wentz is completing 61.3% for 1,649 yards with 13 TDs and four INTs on the season but it's been reported that an anonymous teammate was critical of the QB's play. The criticism is probably fair, as Wentz has committed six turnovers in Philadelphia's three road losses. Wentz has NOT thrown the ball downfield, as the team's top-three pass-catchers, TE Ertz (35) plus WRs Jeffrey (26) and Agholor (25) are averaging only between 9.7 and 11.5 YPC. Philly's running game is just average (111.7 YPG ranks 14th) and its defense has underachieved (26.6 PPG ranks 27th).

Buffalo QB Josh Allen has led his team to a 5-1 start but his numbers are VERY average. He's completing 62.4% for 1,324 yards with as many INTs as TDs (seven each). He's been helped by a running game that averages 135.8 YPG (7th), led by the ageless Frank Gore (388 yards on 4.5 YPC). However, Buffalo is 5-1 because of its defense. Then again, maybe Buffalo is 5-1 because of the competition it has played. Buffalo's lone loss was a a very competitive 16-10 defeat at the hands of unbeaten Pats but look at the team's FIVE wins. The Bills have beaten the Jets, Giants, Bengals, Titans and Dolphins. Those five teams owned a combined record of 6-27 (.182).

Considering the competition, are the Bills really a quality team? My bet says N-O! Yes, the Eagles has struggled so far but I'm not about sell them short, just yet. Playing a THIRD straight game on the road is NEVER a positive but after playing at the Vikings and Cowboys, I believe playing at the Bills is a "step down in class." I checked a number of Week 1 NFL power ratings and if Philly had played at Buffalo in Week 1, the Eagles would have been a four to six-point favorite. Take ANY points available but expect the Eagles to win pretty comfortably.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Year is on Michigan at 7:30 ET.

No. 8 Notre Dame looks to stay in the hunt for a College Football Playoff spot when it visits No. 19 Michigan on Saturday. The Fighting Irish lost 23-17 to then-No. 3 Georgia back on Sep 21 but have since won THREE in a row, including a 30-27 victory over USC on Oct 12. To stay in the mix for a second consecutive playoff appearance, Notre Dame MUST win at "The Big House" on Saturday night. "Playing at Michigan is always a great challenge and one that our guys are excited about," Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly told reporters. "We have to go on the road again and handle all the distractions there and we look forward to a classic matchup."

The Wolverines fell behind 21-0 at Penn St last Saturday night but fought back, although "Big Blue" would ultimately lose, 28-21. Ronnie Bell dropped a pass in the end zone on 4th-and-goal with 2:01 remaining, which would have potentially sent the game to overtime. In the end, it was another "close but no cigar" for Michigan, as the Wolverines fell to 1-10 against top-10 teams under head coach Jim Harbaugh. Michigan is not thinking CFP but it is thinking, "we had better win one of these games, soon!"

RB Tony Jones Jr. racked up a career-high 176 rushing yards in the win against USC to top the 100-yard mark for the third consecutive game. ND's running game rushed for a season-high 311 yards but on the season is averaging a good but not great, 192.0 YPG (41st). QB Ian Book was 17-of-32 for 165 yards and a touchdown to go along with a TD on the ground but as I'll note later, I don't think much of him. Notre Dame's defense is very good, allowing 16.8 PPG (15th) on 348.0 YPG(41st).

Michigan has typically played excellent defense under Harbaugh and this year's unit is allowing 19.0 PPG (21st) on 285.0 YPG (14th). The lack of a consistent offense has been a problem, as Michigan is averaging just 29.0 PPG (68th) on 392.1 YPG (81st). QB Shea Patterson is completing only 57.4% with nine TDs and four INTs but did have his best game of the season at Penn St, going 24-of-41 for 276 yards plus ran for a TD. Freshman RB Zach Charbonnet ran for 81 yards and two TDs against the Nittany Lions and has 457 yards on the season (4.9 YPC & 7 TDs).

These two longtime powerhouses didn't play from 2015-17 but the series was renewed last season when Notre Dame held off a late Michigan surge for a season-opening 24-17 win. My bet says ND is overrated and let me note that QB Book may have a 14-2 ratio through seven games but 10 of his TD passes came against lightweights New Mexico and Bowling Green. Against Georgia, Virginia and USC, he has three TDs, two INTs and has averaged only 201.7 YPG passing. Yes, Michigan has that pathetic record agianst top-10 opponents but I question whether ND is actually a top-10 team. Let me add that here at home, Michigan beat then-No. 14 Iowa 10-3 on Oct 5 and last year, beat then-No. 14 Penn St 42-7 and then-No. 15 Wisconsin 38-13 in "The Big House." Michigan has won 12 straight at home, including going 4-0 at home in 2019, outscoring opponents 31.5-to-11.2. Notre Dame hasn't played in Ann arbor since 2013 but the Fighting Irish have lost SEVEN of their last eight visits to Michigan Stadium. "Big Blue" wins this one in a big way and at least "keeps hope alive" until Ohio St comes to town on Nov 30.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on Arizona St at 7:30 ET.

Arizona State is 5-2 and UCLA 2-5 but both teams are 2-2 in Pac-12 play. No. 24 ASU travels to the Rose Bowl on Saturday, looking to bounce back from its worst offensive output in 11 years. Utah ended Arizona State's streak of 125 games with more than 10 points in last Saturday’s 21-3 victory.UCLA opened 0-3 but has gone 2-2 in conference play, after ending an 11-year drought against Stanford by cruising to a 34-16 win against the Cardinal a week ago Thursday.

Utah did not allow Arizona State’s offense to cross midfield in the first half and allowed only 136 yards of total offense for the game. “I told our football team that we’re going to find out a lot about ourselves this next week,” head coach Herm Edwards told reporters. “Utah hit us in the mouth, and they beat us up. Credit to them. The second half of the season will tell us a lot about where we’re at.” Freshman QB Freshman Jayden Daniels threw for 363 yards and recorded four touchdowns in a 38-34 win over Washington State but at Salt Lake City, he was 4-of-18 for 25 yards and an interception. RB Eno Benjamin ran for 104 yards on 15 carries against the Utes, accounting for almost all of ASU's offense. Benjamin ran for 1,632 yards in 2018 (with 16 TDs) but has a more modest 633 yards in 2019. ASU's defense is allowing 18.1 PPG (18th) on 352.7 YPG (43rd).

The Bruins snapped a two-game losing skid with their win over Stanford, as QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson returned after missing one game due to injury and passed for two TDs and ran for another. RB Joshua Kelley ran for 176 yards. The Bruins averaged only 78 YPG rushing in their 0-3 start but they are averaging 221.5 YPG on the ground in their last four contests. Defensively, UCLA ranks 115th in points allowed (34.6 PPG), as well as in total defense, allowing 459.7 YPG.

While it looks as if Oregon has taken control of the Pac-12 North, the South is far from settled. Utah and USC (Trojans play Friday night at Colorado) are tied for the division lead at 3-1 with Arizona State, Arizona and UCLA all a game back at 2-2. The Bruins still face Utah and USC, while the Sun Devils have USC and Arizona remaining on their schedule. I believe ASU is the much better team and ASU already owns road wins over teams ranked at the time of those games (won at then-No. 18 Mich St and at then-No. 15 Cal). UCLA's two wins have come 67-63 at Wash St (Bruins trailed 49-17 in the late 3Q) and over Stanford, which was down to its third-string QB. Chip Kelly is just 5-13 SU since coming to UCLA and unlike Herm Edwards of ASU (12-8 since coming to Tempe, with FOUR wins over ranked opponents), hasn't beaten a ranked team yet. Don't expect that to change here.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Play is on Troy at 7:00 ET.

My 9* NCAAF Underdog Shocker of the Month is on Temple at 7:00 ET.

UCF and Temple are each 5-2, including 2-1 the American Athletic Conference East Division standings. Both UCF and Temple trail Cincinnati by one game in the division, as they get to square off for a key AAC battle. The Knights have alternated wins and losses in their last five games, most recently a 41-28 victory over East Carolina, while tehe Owls are looking to bounce back after absorbing a 45-21 defeat at SMU.

Dillon Gabriel threw two TDs and ran for another score in UCF's win over ECU. The Knights' QB has exactly 2,000 passing yards on the season and an excellent 17-5 ratio. WR Davis has 47 catches for 833 yards with 10 TDs. The running game features four players with 300-plus yards and it averages 212.3 YPG (26th). UCF ranks 5th in scoring (44.3 PPG) on 553.9 YPG 92nd). Defensively, UCF's numbers are solid, allowing 21.7 PPG (39th) on 349.7 YPG (42nd).

Temple was dominated start to finish by SMU and was outgained 457-204 in last Saturday's lopsided loss. The Owls allowed six TD passes and 457 passing yards, leading head coach Rod Carey to say: "There's a lot to fix in all areas. The good news is it's correctable. The bad news is it cost us today." QB Anthony Russo threw for 409 yards in the season opener versus Bucknell but since has not surpassed 300 yards in any game, including efforts of 127, 224 and 171 yards over the last three outings. The good news is that his TD-to-INT ratio is 14-6, after it was 14-14 last season. Even after last week's 'ugly' loss at SMU, Temple's D checks in allowing 22.7 PPG (43rd) on 373.0 YPG (55th).

Most are well aware that UCF went a combined 25-1 in 2017 and 2018 but the 2019 season has been highlighted (low-lighted?) by a trio of streak-enders. UCF lost 35-34 at Pitt on Sep 21, ending the school's 27-game regular season win streak and then on Oct 4th at Cincy, UCF's streak of 19 straight AAC wins came to and, as did its streak of scoring 30 points or more in 32 straight game, as the Bearcats won 27-24. Temple has proven it can bounce back off a loss and the Owls are 4-0 SU & ATS at home this season (outscoring opponents 32.5-to-14.8 PPG). Temple also checks in 8-1 ATS (89% ATS) as a home dog since the beginning of 2015 (the first of the school's four straight bowl teams). The LONE loss as a home dog in that stretch was to UCF in 2017, when the Knight's went 13-0. As noted above, this 2019 UCF edition does NOT compare to the 2017 or 2018 ones. Take the points and look for a possible SU win by Temple!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on Texas at 3:30 ET.

My 9* Eye-Opener is on Pittsburgh at 12:00 ET.

Many thought that Miami's 17-9 win over then-No. 20 Virginia on Oct 11 was a "turning" point in the 'Canes season but just eight days later, Miami lost 28-21 (in OT) at home to Ga Tech as an 18-point favorite. That's the same Ga Tech team that lost at home (as a four-TD favorite) to The Citadel on Sep 14, an FCS team. The Hurricanes visit Pittsburgh on Saturday to face a surging Panthers team which has rebounded from a season-opening 30-14 home loss to Virginia. Pitt has won FIVE of six since that defeat, falling only 17-10 at Penn St (as a 17-point dog), which is currently the AP's No. 6 team. Pitt has won FOUR in a row since the Penn St loss, going 3-1 ATS.The home team has won THREE straight in this series, after the visitor had won FIVE in a row.

Manny Diaz may be in his first season as Miami's head coach but he already finds himself on the proverbial "hot seat," after last weekend's 28-21 overtime loss to a Georgia Tech. "I’ll take the negativity. I’m responsible for it, and I’ll accept it,” Diaz said Monday in a press conference. "And it sucks that we’re having to go through this. No one’s more disappointed in our record than I am. But I am also as confident as ever that this team will continue to stick together and this team will continue to fight for one another. And the results are going to come." QB Perry completed 16-of-28 passes for 188 yards and two TDs to go along with a rushing score last Saturday but both he and freshman Jarren Williams, who beat out Perry for the starting job in fall camp, are nursing shoulder injuries and it's uncertain who will start Saturday. The passing game is NOT Miami's biggest concern, as the two QBs have combined to average 279.6 YPG through the air (29th). However, the running games adds little help, averaging 131.0 YPG (102nd) on 4.1 YPC. The defensive numbers look good (20.4 PPG ranks 29th and 298.3 YPG ranks 19th) but the bottom line is that Minmi is 3-4 overall, including 1-3 in the ACC.

Meanwhile, Pitt is 2-1 in the ACC Coastal, trailing only 3-1 Virginia. The head-to-head loss to the Cavs could cost Pitt in the end but the Panthers have set their sights on a second straight Atlantic Coast Conference Coastal Division title. Pitt upset UCF 35-34 (as a 9-point home dog) back on Sep 21 plus its last two games has won ACC contests 33-30 over Duke and 27-0 over Syracuse, BOTH on the road! Pittsburgh raised its FBS-best sack total to 36 with nine against Syracuse, while QB Kenny Pickett passed for 232 yards and two touchdowns in last Friday's 27-20 win. Like Miami, Pitt has moved the ball through the air (270.3 YPG ranks 36th) but Pitt's running game is even worse than Miami's, averaging 120.6 YPG (109th) on just 3.4 YPC. Pitt's D pretty much matches Miami's, allowing 22.1 PPG (41st) on 302.9 YPG (21st).

A victory over the Hurricanes would give Pitt five consecutive wins for the first time since 2009, when Dave Wannstedt's Panthers reeled off six straight. As for Miami, it is proving just as unreliable for Manny Diaz as it was for Mark Richt (FYI...Diaz served on Richt's staff). I noted above that Pitt won the ACC Coastal title last season but will add that the Panthers will NOT forget the 'Canes trouncing them 24-3 in Miami on Nov 24. That was Pitt's final game of the regular season and it came AFTER Pitt had already clinched a spot in the ACC championship game. The last time Miami visited Pittsburgh (in 2017's regular-season finale), it was ranked No. 2 in the country but lost 24-14 in Pickett's first start. Pittsburgh is a team in which the whole is greater than the sum of its parts, while with Miami, it's just the opposite. Pitt has lost to Penn St just 17-10 (Nittany Lions are averaging 40.0 PPG) and beat UCF, ending that team's 27-game regular season winning streak. It's Homecoming for Pitt and I expect the Panthers to roll. Lay it.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* MNF Game of the Month is on the NY Jets at 8:15 ET.

There are just two unbeaten teams in NFL 2019 and one is the surprising 6-0 San Francisco 49ers. The other is NO surprise, as it's the 6-0 New England Patriots. The Pats visit the 1-4 NY Jets for Week 7's MNF contest, having suffocated the Jets 30-14 back on Sep 22. The Pats D, which is No. 1 in points allowed (8.0), while ranking second in total yards allowed (234.7 YPG), passing yards allowed (161.0 YPG) and rushing yards allowed (73.7 YPG), held the Jets to only 105 total yards back in Week 3, giving New England a SEVENTH straight win in the series. New York was forced to go with third-string QB Luke Falk it that first meeting. However, the Jets have to feel more confident this time around, as starting QB Sam Darnold is back in the lineup (more later)..

The ageless Tom Brady is completing 65.4% for 1,743 yards with 10 TDs and three INTs (97.5 QB rating). Despite little help from his running game (Pats rank 20th with 101.5 YPG rushing on just 3.5 YPC), Brday has led New England's offense to an average of 31.7 PPG, tops in the NFL. I note New England's overall defense at the top but will add here that the Pats also rank second to Carolina with 25 sacks! Another HUGE reason the New Enfgland D is so stingy is that the Pats have held teams to an NFL-low 10 of 73 (13.7 percent) conversion rate on third down. The fewest third downs allowed in a 16-game season is 49 by the 1991 New Orleans Saints (the Pats are on pace to allow just 26, but can't be expected to keep up that pace, right?).

The Jets opened the season by taking a 16-0 lead over the Bills in Week 1, only to lose that game 17-16. Making matters worse, Sam Darnold missed the next three games due to mononucleosis, as the Jets would lose all three, while scoring a total of just 23 points. However, Darnold returned in Week 6 and led New York to its first victory of 2019, passing for 338 yards and two TDs in a 24-22 victory over visiting Dallas. RB Bell finally scored his first rushing TD last week but he's run for only 256 yards on 3.0 YPC on the season. However, he is tied for the team-lead with 28 catches. WRs Crowder (28 catches) and Anderson (16 catches for 16.0 YPC) were both thrilled to see Darnold's return. Crowder had six catches for 98 yards vs Dallas, while Anderson had five catches for 125! Getting back to Bell, the return of Darnold should "open things up" for one of the NFL's best RBs going back to 2014.

OK, Brady is 28-6 against the Jets in the regular season during his career but it should be noted Brady has been intercepted in each of his last THREE games and has failed to throw a TD pass in TWO of them. Brady and the New England offense have not exactly been hitting on all cylinders as of late and let me add that Bill Belichick has often had problems at MetLife, where Pats have covered just ONE of their last six vs Jets. With Darnold back and some renewed confidence, this Monday Night home dog should 'bark' LOUDLY!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic (NFC East Game of the Month) is on the Dal Cowboys at 8:20 ET.

My 10* Game of the Week is on the Chi Bears at 4:25 ET.

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the LA Rams at 1:00 ET.

The Los Angeles Rams opened 3-0 but head to Atlanta in Week 7 on a three-game slide (first-ever under head coach Sean McVay). The defense allowed 55 points in loss to Tampa Bay and 30 points in a loss to Seattle but then it was the offense's turn to underachieve in last Sunday's 20-7 loss to the 49ers. The Rams have won the NFC West each of the last two seasons but at 3-3, trail both 5-1 Seattle and 5-0 San Francisco. The good news is that the Rams face the Falcons on Sunday, who have lost FOUR in a row to fall to 1-5 on the season. Two of the defeats were by fewer than four points, including a heartbreaking 34-33 loss at Arizona last week but the other two came by 14 and 21 points.

The Rams are coming off a truly 'ugly' offensive performance against the 49ers, as the Rams gained just 157 total yards and QB Jared Goff threw for a career-low 78 yards. However, the Rams still rank 6th in passing yards (272.5 YPG) and are averaging 25.5 PPG (11th). The defense has plenty of talent (despite its struggles in 2019) and Los Angeles made three moves this past week to try to address some weaknesses. It acquired star CB Jalen Ramsey from Jacksonville, center Austin Corbett from Cleveland and LB Kenny Young, who came over from Baltimore for CB Marcus Peters.

Atlanta is a mess, as it looks to avoid its FIFTH straight loss. QB Matt Ryan was 30-of-36 for 356 yards and four touchdowns last week but the Falcons lost again, 34-33 at Arizona. Ryan leads the NFL with 15 TD passes and last week joined Kurt Warner and Steve Young as the only players in NFL history with at least 300 passing yards in each of their team’s first six games of a season. However, Atlanta has gone from having one of the better 1-2 rushing tandems in the NFL with Devonta Freeman and Telvin Coleman, to ranking 29th in rushing at 73.5 YPG (just 3.7 YPC). For all of Ryan's passing yards, the Falcons are averaging a modest 22.5 PPG (16th). Meanwhile, Atlanta's defense is awful, allowing 31.0 PPG (31st).

Last year's Super Bowl was played in Atlanta (Rams lost 13-3 to the Pats) but Los Angeles returns to Atlanta as a .500 team with three straight losses, only EIGHT months after their Super Bowl appearance. The Falcons can feel the Rams' pain. Atlanta's 2016 Super Bowl season (blew a 28-3 lead to the Pats) seems like a distant memory, as with four straight losses leaving them at 1-5, the Falcons are well are their way to a second straight losing season (Atlanta is currently, hands down, the NFC South's worst team!).

Atlanta's loss and non-cover at Arizona last Sunday leaves them 4-16 ATS on the road going back to the start of the 2017 season. Yes, the Falcons are more viable at home but in their last home game, they lost 24-10 to the Titans, who have since lost 14-7 at home to the Bills and 16-0 at Denver. I believe the now-desperate Rams can regain their "mojo," after losses to 5-1 Seattle and 5-0 San Francisco. I won't ignore that the Rams are 15-4 SU on the road since McVay took over at the start of the 2017 season and the Falcons are a team in disarray with a head coach (Dan Quinn) on his way out!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on Memphis at 7:00 ET.

A pair of 5-1 teams square off Saturday night in Memphis, as the Tulane Green Wave visit the Memphis Tigers. Willie Fritz took over at Tulane in 2016 and in his third season (2018), led the Green Wave to a 7-6 season after their 41-24 win over ULL in the Cure Bowl. It marked just the school's SECOND winning season in the previous 16 seasons! The Green Wave are well on their way to a second straight winning season, losing only on the road at now-No. 11 Auburn 24-6 back on Sep 7.

When Tommy West took over Memphis in 2001, the school had only been to one bowl in its history (Pasadena Bowl in 1971). West took the Tigers to five bowls but was fired after a 2-10 season in 2011. Larry Porter's two-year tenure as a 3-21 'nightmare,' as was Justin Fuente's first two years with Memphis. Fuente went 7-17 in 2012 and 2013 but led Memphis to a 10-3 season in 2014 (Miami Beach Bowl win) and then to a 9-3 season in 2015 (left for Va Tech before the bowl game). Mike Norvell enters his fourth season, off three bowl appearances, although the Tigers have lost all three. Memphis opened the 2019 season 5-0 and entered last week's game at Temple ranked 23rd in the latest AP poll. However, the Tigers lost 30-28, as a 3 1/2-point favorite.

Both schools play in the AAC-West, where Tulane is tied with SMU at 2-0 and Memphis is tied with Navy at 1-1. Tulane is led by its No.4-ranked rushing game, which averages 288.0 YPG. The Green Wave have great depth at RB but Dauphine leads the way with 364 yards on a WHOPPING 11.0 YPC! Overall, the offense is averaging 39.2 PPG (16th) on 496.3 YPG (13th). The defense has played well, allowing 19.2 PPG (26th) on 326.3 YPG (32nd).

Temple has an edge at the QB position with Brady White (69.9% with 13 TDs and just 4 INTs) plus RB Gainwell has run for 726 yards on 7.6 YPC with seven TDs. The offense almost matches Tulane in averaging 37.8 PPG (21st) on 466.22 YPG (27th).The defense is good, allowing 21.0 PPG (38th) on 347.2 YPG (44th).

Tulane comes in on a four-game winning streak (SU & ATS) but the Green Wave face THREE tough road games over their next four league contests, Saturday at Memphis, at Navy on Oct 26 and at Temple on Nov 16. Memphis has been tough to beat at home since the beginning of 2014, going 31-5 SU. Expect the Tigers to bounce back off their first loss of 2019 with a "comfortable" home win(meaning a cover!) in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Big-12 Game of the Year is on Oklahoma St at 4:00 ET.

Matt Rhule left Temple to take over a troubled Baylor program (scandal) in December of 2016 and the Bears finished the 2017 season with a 1–11 record, as Baylor failed to qualify for a bowl for the first time since 2009. Baylor finished the 2018 regular season 6-6 and received an invite to the 2018 Texas Bowl, where they won 45-38 over Vanderbilt to finish the season with a 7-6 record. Here in 2019, Rhule has Baylor off to a 6-0 start and the Bears are currently in the AP poll. Baylor is off to a 3-0 start in the Big 12 but have been VERY lucky. The Bears blew a 20-0 lead in their Big 12 opener against Iowa State but redshirt-freshman John Mayers made a 38-yard field goal with 21 seconds remaining for the win.The Bears made it EIGHT straight wins dating to 2018 last Saturday but were again fortunate after benefiting greatly from a false start call in their 33-30 double-overtime victory over Texas Tech. The Bears drove 97 yards to get the tying FG on the final play of regulation (Mayers came through again) and then won it with a TD in the 2nd OT.

Mike Gundy is in his 15th season at Oklahoma St and this is clearly NOT one of his better teams. The Cowboys are 4-2 (1-2 in Big 12 play). OSU opened 3-0 but has lost TWO of its last three games. The Cowboys lost a competitive 36-30 decision at Texas (as a 7-point dog) on Sep 21 for their first loss of the season, then beat Kan St 26-13 at home, before losing 45-35 at Texas Tech on Oct 5th as a 9-point road favorite. Baylor had its hands full with Texas Tech last Saturday at home, as junior QB Charlie Brewer threw his first three interceptions of the season. However, he ran for three TDs, including one in overtime. He's completing 65.4% with 11 TDs and 3 INTs, as Baylor ranks 34th in the nation with 276.3 YPG passing. The running game is solid (199.2 YPG on 5.6 YPC), helping Baylor average 37.8 PPG (20th). The Baylor D is solid, allowing 17.8 PPG (17th).

Spencer Sanders (63.3 percent, 1,333 yards, 10 TDs, eight INTs) needs only 296 yards to break the freshmen school record for passing yards in a season .However, he hardly seems in the same class as OSU's last two QBs, Cornelius and Rudolph, who threw for a combined 97 TDs with just 26 INTs the previous three seasons. However, sophomore RB Chuba Hubbard has more rushing yards than any player in the nation, checking in with 1,094 on 6.8 YPC with 13 TDs. OSU ranks 7th in the nation with 279.0 YPG on the ground (5.6 YPC), helping them average 39.8 PPG (11th). The defense is a worry though, allowing 27.5 PPG (71st).

Noting all of the above, Baylor's first three wins of 2019 came over FCS SF Austin (1-5), UTSA (2-4) and Rice (0-6) plus the Bears have been extremely fortunate to win TWO of their three Big-12 contests (see above). Oklahoma St has had a week to stew after it was ambushed at Lubbock on Oct 5 and returns to Stillwater for its Homecoming Game. What's more, the Cowboys will surely remember Baylor beating them 35-31 last season in Waco on a 6-yard TD pass to with SEVEN seconds remaining in the game. REVENGE works and Baylor's eight-game winning streak (6-0 start in 2019), ends!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on Washington at 3:30 ET.

Oregon opened the season No. 11 in the AP poll and met No. 16 Auburn in its season opener on Aug 31 in Arlington, Tx.. The Ducks led 21-6 late in the third quarter but saw Auburn score the game's final three TDs for a 27-21 win. The game-winner for Auburn came on a 26-yard TD pass with just NINE seconds remaining in the game. As the old saying goes, "Don't get mad, get even." Mario Cristobal's team has done just that, winning FIVE in a row (including a 3-0 start in Pac-12 play) and have outscored the opposition on average, 39.0-to-5.0 PPG. That's right, Oregon has allowed just 25 points in its five-game winning streak, holding five consecutive opponents to single-digit point totals for the first time since 1958. However, the Ducks now must visit their border rival the Washington Huskies. Washington is off a 51-27 blowout of Arizona, but the 5-2 Huskies are just 2-2 in Pac-12 play. Washington opened the season ranked 13th in the AP's preseason poll but come into this contest having just climbed back into the rankings at No. 25 this past Sunday.

Oregon's senior QB (Justin Herbert) is a likely top-five NFL draft pick. He completing 69.1% with 17 TDs and just one INT and has thrown a TD pass in 34 consecutive games, the longest streak in the nation, He's protected by a veteran offensive line that also gives Oregon a solid running game (176.8 YPG ranks 56th). Oregon is averaging 36.0 PPG on 461.0 YPG, ranking 30th in both categories. As noted above, the defense is spectacular, allowing 8.7 PPG (3rd) on 267.7 YPG (8th).

Washington QB Jacob Eason was the 2016 National Gatorade Player of the Year and began his career at Georgia. He's not in Herbert's class but he's completing 66.0% with 13 TDs and just three INTs. He's supported by a deep group of RBs, three of which whom have more than 325 yards rushing. Ahmed is the best of the group (522 RY / 5.8 YPC / 6 TDs) which averages 179.1 YPG (53rd). Washington is averaging 36.4 PPG (29th) and most teams would be happy allowing 19.6 PPG (28th) on 363.6 YPG (50th) but in this case, the Huskies' D is being compared to the Ducks'.

Both schools play in the Pac-12 North, so Oregon can all but clinch the title here with a win. The Oregon D is 'nasty' (has allowed just one TD over its opponents' last 63 drives while also forcing 21 three-and-outs during that span) but winning at Husky Stadium will NOT be easy. What's more, Washington is a home dog for the first time since 2015. From 2016 through 2019, Washington has played 25 home games, going 23-2 SU. The Huskies lost to USC at home in 2016 and had won 15 straight home games before losing 20-19 to Cal on Sep 7. The Cal game was delayed more than 2 1/2 hours by severe weather, with the Bears winning on a FG with EIGHT seconds left. I'm saying the home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on La Tech at 3:30 ET.

Southern Miss heads to Ruston, La on Saturday to take on La Tech in a C-USA action. The two schools are both 2-0 in league play with the Golden Eagles sitting at 4-2 on the season and the Bulldogs checking in at 5-1. Southern Miss saw a three-year bowl streak end in 2018 (went just 6-5) but is hoping to get back to 'bowling' in 2019. Fact is, the team's two losses this season have come on the road against two SEC schools, Miss St and Alabama. The Golden Eagles come into this contest off back-to-back home wins,31-13 over UTEP and 45-27 over North Texas. As for La Tech, the Bulldogs opened the 2019 season with a 45-14 loss at Texas but have since won FIVE in a row.

Southern Miss is led by QB Jack Abraham who has completed almost 71.6% of his passes for 1,936 yards, with 12 TD’s and four INTs. The Golden Eagles rank 6th in passing (331.2 YPG) but the team's leading rusher has just 279 yards and is averaging a woeful 113.5 YPG on the ground (115th). That said, Southern Miss is averaging 30.5 PPG (57th). The defense is allowing 29.8 PPG (91st) on 388.2 YPG (66th).

La Tech QB J’Mar Smith threw three TD passes and RB Justin Henderson ran for three first-quarter TDs to power Louisiana Tech to a 69-21 victory over Massachusetts last Saturday. Smith is completing 63.8% for 1,557 yards with nine TDs and just two INTs on the season. Henderson has 478 yards rushing, while averaging a healthy 8.2 YPC (has eight TDs). Tech's offense is averaging 34.0 PPG (39th) on 467.3 YPG (25th). On the defensive side of the ball, despite allowing 45 points at Texas, La Tech checks into this game allowing a modest 23.0 PPG (45th).

The winner of this one takes a big step towards representing the West in C-USA's title game and I'm "all over" La Tech. The Bulldogs come in on a five-game winning streak and will surely remember therir bitter losses to the Golden Eagles the last two seasons. Southern Miss eked out a 21-20 win at home in 2018 and in 2017, won here in Ruston 34-27 in two OTs. Expect the Bulldogs to "get it right' this time around.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye-Opener is on Florida at 12:00 ET.

My 10* Friday Night Lights G.O.M. is on FAU at 6:30 ET.

Oakland Raiders' owner Al Davis hired Lane Kiffin back on January 23, 2007, making him the youngest head coach in the NFL's "modern era" (since 1946) at 31. However, he was gone before the end of his second season, after posting a 5-15 record. Trouble and controversy have followed Kiffin ever since. He had a one-year stay as Tennessee's head coach and spent three-plus seasons at USC, before landing a job as Nick Saban's OC from 2014-16. That ended badly as well and Kiffin landed at FAU and in his first season (2017) went 11-3 with a bowl win (Owls had come off three straight 3-9 seasons). However, FAU was just 5-7 last season and opened 2019 with a 45-21 loss at Ohio St and a 48-14 home loss to UCF. Kiffin has turned things around quickly though, winning FOUR in a while averaging 39.0 PPG.

4-2 FAU welcomes 3-3 Marshall to Boca Raton for a Friday game in C-USA play. FAU (2-0) and Marshall (1-1) were the East's two-favorites in the preseason but Doc Holliday's Thundering Herd are struggling in 2019, going 1-5 ATS. The team's lone ATS win came way back on Sep 6, when Marshall (+14) lost 14-7 at Boise St. QB Green is struggling, with just two TD passes in his last three games, passing for only 131 and 175 yards in two of those three contests. Marshall has lost both road games this season, at Boise St (see above) and 24-13 at MTSU on Oct 5. The game at MTSU is noteworthy, as Marshall scored just 13 points on a defense allowing 32.7 PPG (107th) on 494.7 YPG (126th).

FAU just beat MTSU 28-13 at home last Saturday, despite playing its worst offensive game since being outclassed by Ohio St and UCF to open the 2019 season. However, while Marshall's QB is struggling, FAU's Robinson has thrown for 1,557 yards with 13 TDs and just two INTs. If freshman RB Davidson (149 rushing yards v. MTSU) continues to develop, FAU may just be the team to beat in the East (Western Ky has opened 3-0 and hosts FAU on Nov 2). Getting back to the current situation, the Owls are 13-4 SU at home under Kiffin (13 wins have come by an average of 24.6 PPG) and this modest impost should be no problem against a Marshall team which has scored just 20 points in its only two road games of 2019. Lay it!

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Thursday Game of the Month is on the KC Chiefs at 8:20 ET.

The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph in 2017 and 2018 and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. His defenses have ranked in the league’s top-five in yards allowed in eight of the last 12 years, while placing in the NFL’s top-5 in fewest points allowed seven times over that span. However, the Broncos opened 0-4 while averaging a modest 17.5 PPG, while Fangio's defense was yielding 23.3 PPG. The Broncos broke into the win column in Week 5 with a 20-13 at the LA Chargers and then last Sunday back at home vs the Titans, Denver recorded its first seven-sack, three-interception performance in over 25 years in a 16-0 shutout of Tennessee.

Mahomes threw three TDs in the loss to Houston (also threw his first 'pick' of the season) but a second straight loss is worrisome. However, there was some good news, as WR Tyreek Hill made a spectacular return from a five-game absence due to sternum and right collarbone injuries with his NFL-best sixth multi-TD performance since 2017 (5 catches for 80 yards with 2 TD receptions). TE Travis Kelce leads the team with 32 catches and he has torched the Broncos for 762 career receiving yards, his most versus any opponent. I'm not sure Kansas City has done itself any favors by abandoning its 24th-ranked running game (82.7 YPG), as while LeSean McCoy is averaging 5.4 YPC, he only has 258 yards on the season and hasn't carried more than 11 times in ANY game. The KC defense continues to be a concern, allowing 406.2 YPG (27th), including 161.8 YPG on the ground (30th).

The Flacco-led Denver offense is averaging only 17.7 PPG (26th), as the former Super Bowl MVP owns six TD passes, five INTs and a poor QB rating of 87.4. Lindsay (397 yards / 4.7 YPC) and Freeman (284 yards / 4.3 YPC) are decent RBs but the team is averaging only 116.0 YPG on the ground (14th). Denver saw Indy rush for 180 yards against the Chiefs vulnerable rush D and maybe that could work for them, as well. Then again, Vic Fangio dismissed the notion that Indianapolis showed the blueprint on how to defeat Kansas City. "Every game has its own personality to it," Fangio said. "The Colts played well on that day in all three phases of the game and got some critical takeaways that stopped some drives."

Yes, it's a short week for KC (plus the Chiefs will be playing at high altitude) but the Broncos are long-time, familiar division rivals. Here's the rub. The Chiefs have won SEVEN straight over the Broncos, including FOUR in a row at Mile High. The Broncos haven’t yielded a TD in the last nine quarters but Mahomes' 14 TD passes this season are four more than the Broncos have scored as a team. The Chiefs have scored 30 or more points in 17 of of their last 24 games and have 'owned' the Broncos as of late (see above). As for the Broncos, they check in just 5-10-1 ATS their last 16 at home. No THREE straight losses for KC, here!

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Oct Game of the Month is on the LA Rams at 4:05 ET.

Jim Harbaugh took over the San Francisco 49ers in 2011 and led them to THREE straight NFC championship games and one Super Bowl. However, after an 8-8 season in 2014, both Harbaugh and the 49ers had had enough of each other. Tomsula lasted one season (5-11) and Kelly one (2-14), before Kyle Shanahan was hired. His 49ers went 6-10 and 4-12 the first two seasons but San Francisco now sits atop the NFC West at 4-0 (3-1 ATS). A running game, led by unknowns Breida (340 yards / 6.5 YPC) and Mostert (236 yards / 5.8 YPC), leads the NFL in rushing at 200.0 YPG. QB Jimmy Garoppolo hasn't been great but he will enter this game 10-2 as San Francisco's starting QB. Then there is the team's D, which ranks 4th in allowing 14.2 PPG on 257.5 YPG (2nd).

Sean McVay was the offensive coordinator of the Washington Redskins from 2014 to 2016 but was hired by the Rams as their head coach on January 12, 2017. The hiring made him the youngest head coach since the start of the NFL's modern era. His first two seasons were almost entirely positive times (won back-to-back NFC West titles), as the Rams were shockingly good from the very start of his tenure. The Rams steadily improved all the way to the Super Bowl at the end of last season (just McVay's second year). The Rams opened 3-0 in 2019 but they've lost two straight, 55-40 at home to Tampa Bay and 30-29 at Seattle. In may be just Week 6 but this is a landmark game in the NFC West race (SF is 4-0, Sea 4-1 & LA 3-2).

Almost nothing has gone wrong for Jimmy Garoppolo and the unbeaten 49ers but the team's running game has taken a big hit on the injury front, as both FB Kyle Juszczyk and right tackle Mike McGlinchey are out for about a month with knee injuries, joining left tackle Joe Staley (leg) on the sidelines.Don't dismiss Juszczyk's absence, as he's a devastating lead blocker. As for LA's running game, Todd Gurley, missed the e team's only real practice of the last two weeks Wednesday due to a bruised left thigh. The once-prolific running back's touches are already down sharply this season, and McVay plans to use Malcolm Brown and rookie Darrell Henderson in the backfield against the Niners. Goff is third in the NFL in passing yards (1,649) but has tossed six INTs over his last three games and seven on the season, tied for the second-highest total in the league. He also has just 7 TD passes and an 83.0 QB rating. That's quite a drop-off from the last two seasons, when he owns a 60-19 ratio with QB ratings of 100.5 and 101.1.

Yes, the 49ers are 4-0 with some great stats BUT their wins have come over Tampa Bay, Cincy, Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Those teams own a combined 5-15 (.250) record! The Rams are on just the second losing streak of McVay's tenure with back-to-back defeats in which the defense has allowed 85 points! No way LA's defense doesn't show up here, big time. The Rams are 3-0 against the 49ers the last two seasons with Goff starting (did not play in a Week 17 loss back in 2017), averaging 42.7 PPG. In those three games, Goff has thrown for nine TDs with no INTs. Never could have imagined that one could lay three points with the Rams at home vs the 49ers in Week 6 at the start of the season.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET.

The 3-2 Minnesota Vikings have opened the 2019 season alternating wins and losses through their first five games but are hoping to put together back-to-back wins for the first time when they welcome the Philadelphia Eagles to U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday. The Eagles are also 3-2, after back-to-back wins at Green Bay (34-27) and at home to the winless Jets (31-6). Philadelphia became the first team in NFL history to record 10 sacks and score two defensive TDs in its romp over the injury-riddled Jets. As for Vikings, they won for the first time on the road this season last Sunday at the Giants, gaining a season-high 490 yards.

Carson Wentz has not done much in Philly's consecutive wins (just a total of 349 passing yards) but he has played well in 2019 (60.3% with 10 TDs and just 2 INTs). Philly's running game is averaging a modest 111.8 YPG (17th) but Jordan Howard has four total TDs while averaging 5.3 YPC over the last two games, establishing himself as Philly's lead back (248 RY / 4.7 YPC / 4 TDs). TE Ertz leads the team in catches (29) but WR Agholor has a team-high four TD catches among his 19 receptions. Philly's rush D is No. 1 in the league (63.0 YPG) but the pass D is allowing 271.2 YPG (27th).

Minnesota put some mid-week distractions behind them to dominate the Giants. WR Adam Thielen received an apology from QB Kirk Cousins for several missed throws in Minnesota's 16-6 loss at Chicago on Sep 29 and then went out and delivered season highs in catches (seven), receiving yards (130) and TDs (two) in a 28-10 victory over New York. The Vikes also got 132 yards from RB Dalvin Cook, who has 542 yards on the season on 5.9 YPC with five TDs. Minnesota's 166.4 YPG on the ground ranks 3rd-best in the NFL. QB Kirk Cousins has yet to prove himself since signing that HUGE contract before the 2018 season but he had his best game of 2019 against the Gainst, completing 22 of 27 for 2306 yards with two TDs and zero INTs. He came into the game averaging just 183.8 YPG passing with three TD and two INTs through the first four weeks.

My bet says Minnesota head coach 'learned something' last week. Yes, RB Dalvin Cook looks like a star but Cousins has two outstanding WRs (Adam Thielen and Stefan Diggs), who NEED to be a bigger part of the offense. As for Cousins, he owns a career 101.2 passer rating with 17 TD passes in eight career games against the Eagles, whose secondary is decimated with injures to their top four CBs. Philly is averaging 28.2 PPG (7th) but is averaging only 338.2 YPG (24th). That kind of disparity will catch up to them. One last thing. The Vikings are 17-7 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less going back to 2015 (that's 77%!).

Good luck...Larry

My 9* NFL Week 6 Las Vegas Insider is on the KC Chiefs at 1:00 ET.

The Kansas City Chiefs lost for the first time in 2019 last Sunday night when the Colts beat them 19-13. That loss didn't do the Houston Texans any favors, who were blasting the the Atlanta Falcons 53-32 (Indy's win gives them a 3-2 record, same as Houston). Kansas City was held to a season-low 324 total yards by the Colts, while Houston rolled up a season-high 592 yards against the Falcons. Houston at Kansas City features a matchup of Watson vs Mahomes, who will go head-to-head for the first time since they were selected two picks apart in the 2017 draft (Mahomes was chosen with the 10th overall pick and Watson with the 12th pick).

Watson earned AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors after completing 28-of-33 passes for 426 yards with five TDs and no INTs for a perfect passer rating of 158.3 against the Falcons. However, he's had an up-and-down season. Watson had a QB rating of just 75.3 in Week 5 of a 16-10 home loss to Carolina and in a 13-12 home win over the Jaguars in Week 2, posted a 70.9 QB rating. Watson is getting help from a solid running game averaging 129.4 YPG (10th), which should have success vs a KC rush D allowing 155.8 YPG (30th) on 5.3 YPC (2nd-most in the NFL). However, despite not allowing a single sack vs Atlanta, Houston's OL has allowed the mobile Watson to be sacked 18 times!

Mahomes hasn't gotten much help from his running game (88.6 YPG to rank 25th) but for the most part, it hasn't mattered. KC is No. 1 in the NFL in passing (356.0 YPG) and 4th in scoring (29.6 PPG). Mahomes is completing 65.6% for 1,831 yards with 11 TD passes and not a single INT in 195 attempts (QB rating of 114.7). Mahomes has thrived all season plus it's good news that speedster Tyreek Hill is expected to return for this game.

I have to like this set-up for KC. The Chiefs are coming off an almost inexplicable 13-point effort last Sunday, while Houston was rolling up 53 points. The Chiefs have scored 30 or more points in 17 of of their last 23 games and have won 10 of their last 14 home games by double-digits. As for Houston, the Texans have scored 28, 13, 27, 10 and 53 points in their five games so far in 2019. Chiefs win and do so comfortably.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* signature 36-Club Play is on Iowa at 7:30 ET.

Penn State (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) will take its 12-game winning streak (second to only Clemson's 20 straight wins) and its No. 10 ranking in the current AP poll into Iowa City to take on No. 17 Iowa (4-1, 1-1 Big Ten) Saturday night. The Nittany Lions' CFP hopes will likely depend on how they perform during a critcal three- week stretch which begins this Saturday. Penn St will follow this contest with a home date with No. 16 Michigan and then a trip to East Lansing to take on Michigan St. Iowa is likely not seriously thinking o about the CFP but the Hawkeyes have surely NOT tabled hopes of winning the Big Ten West. However, with Wisconsin and Minnesota off to 2-0 stars, Iowa almost HAS to win this one (will play at Wisconsin and then host Minnesota in Nov).

Penn State sophomore QB Sean Clifford ranks second among Big Ten passers with 1,443 yards and is third with 12 TD passes (just two INTs in 135 pass attempts). A running-back-by-committee approach (four backs have run for at least 198 yards) is averaging 194.6 YPG (43rd) on 5.4 YPC. Penn St is averaging 47.0 YPPG (5th) on 500.2 YPG (11th). Iowa's offense could not score a TD last week at Michigan, as QB Nate Stanley (who entered the game with eight TD passes and zero INTs), threw three INTs. Stanley, who needs just one TD pass to move into a tie for second in school history, is unlikely to forget that he completed only 18-of-49 passes while throwing two interceptions and getting sacked three times in a 30-24 oss at Penn State last year. However, much like Penn St, Iowa's running game (174.2 YPG on 5.2 YPC) has three players with more than 200 rushing yards. Stanley also has a quartet of receivers all with at least 190 receiving yards.

The Nittany Lions have won FIVE straight meetings with the Hawkeyes but note that last season at Penn St, Stanley (who had an awful game / see above) threw a pick at Penn State's goal line with 3:18 left, as the Nittany Lions survived 30-24. The year before (at Iowa), Penn State scored a TD on the game's final play, winning 21-19 on a walk-off TD pass from Trace McSorley. Yes, Penn St has won FIVE in a row but prior to that, the Hawkeyes had won EIGHT of nine in the series, including a last-second 24-23 win in 2008 that knocked Penn State out of the national title chase.

Deja vu? Iowa's QB in that 2008 game, Ricky Stanzi, is the team's honorary captain this week. Iowa (especially its defense) will be Penn St's toughest opponent to-date and the Nittany Lions hardly impressed against the team's toughest opponent up to this point. Back on Sep 14, Penn St (-17) barely eked out a 17-10 win against Pittsburgh (was held to just 389 yards). Yes, Penn State's defense is allowing 7.4 PPG (2nd) on 240.4 YPG (4th) but Iowa's D is "right there" with them, allowing just 8.8 PPG (3rd) on 255.0 YPG (5th). Iowa is 14-6-1 ATS a home dog since late 2000 and I'm expecting an OUTRIGHT win in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* MAC ATTACK 2 is on Ohio U at 3:30 ET.

Many felt as 2019 would be the year that Frank Solich would be able to lead Ohio U to its first MAC title since 1968. The Bobcats opened the season with a 41-20 win over Rhode Island but then lost THREE in a row. The first two were on the road, 20-10 at Pitt on Sep 7 and 33-31 at Marshall on Sep 14. Ohio welcomed ULL to Athens on Sep 21 and entered that contest on a 10-game winning streak at Peden Stadium. Ohio had averaged a WHOPPING 47.0 PPG during its home winning streak but got CRUSHED 45-25 by the Ragin' Cajuns. The Bobcats had the final weekend of September off and opened their MAC schedule at Buffalo last Saturday. The Bobcats and Buffs were tied at 14 and went to OT. Buffalo scored first but missed the PAT. Ohio gave the ball to RB Allison on all five of its plays in overtime and won it 21-20 on his five-yard TD run and a successful PAT, Ohio (2-3 / 1-0 MAC) returns home to host Northern Illinois.

The Huskies have been a "bowl regular," making 12 bowl appearances over the previous 15 seasons, including 10 of the last 11. Rod Carey was the school's head coach the last six seassons but he left for Temple. Tom Hammond, the Baltimore Ravens running backs coach.from 2014-18, was given his first head coaching job at DeKalb. So far, NOT so good . Northern Illinois beat Illinois St 24-10 to open the 2019 season but the Huskies have lost FOUR in a row, since. NIU lost three in a row on the road (35-17 at Utah, 44-8 at Nebraska and 24-18 at Vandy), before losing its MAC opener 27-20 at home to Ball St. The Huskies rank 42nd in passing (266.2 YPG) but QB Ross Bowers is completing just 56.9% with 4 TDs and 4 INTs. The running game stinks, averaging 97.4 YPG (122nd). The defense allows a relatively modest 363.4 YPG (49th) but gives up 28.0 PPG (78th).

Ohio OB Nathan Rourke was expecting a big season after passing for 2,431 yards (with 23 TD passes) and rushing for 860 yards (with 15 TDs) in 2018. However, he's got just 250 rushing yards (3 TDs) and 1,012 passing yards (6 TDs) so far in 2019. Ohio's D is allowing 27.6 PPG (74th) on 446.8 YPG (108th). The Bobcats have disappointed so far but they are 1-0 in MAC play and just maybe, last Saturday's OT win is what the team needed to jump-start its MAC season. Northern Illinois in 2019 looks NOTHING like past editions (12 bowls the last 15 seasons) and its lone with has come over Illinois St, an FCS member. NIU is 0-3 on the road, getting outscored on average, 34.3-to-14.3 PPG. Remember, before losing at home to ULL on Sep 21, Ohio had won 10 straight at home, averaging 47.0 PPG. Let's not count out Ohio U just yet in its quest for its first MAC title since 1968,. Lay it!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye-Opener is on Temple at 12:00 ET.

The Tigers travel to Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia, Pa) this Saturday to take on fellow AAC rival Temple. The Owls entered the 2019 season off four straight bowl appearances (going 2-2) but began the current season with their THIRD different head coach in four years. Matt Rhule left for Baylor after the 2016 season, Geoff Collins for Ga Tech after 2018 and Temple hired Rod Carey to begin the current season. Carey took North Illinois to FIVE bowls in six year as the school's head coach, although the Huskies lost all five. In Temple's second game of 2019, the Owls upset then-No. 21 Maryland 20-17 (as five-point home dog), one week after the Terps had ripped Syracuse for 63 points. Temple suffered a let down of its own the following Saturday, losing 38-22 at Buffalo, as a two-TD road favorite. However, the Owls have rebounded to beat Georgia Tech (24-2) and East Carolina (27-17) in their last two games, allowing an average of just 316 yards per game in the two victories

Memphis QB Brady White threw three TD passes and RB Kenneth Gainwell chipped in 209 rushing yards and two scores in the Tigers' 52-33 win last Saturday. The Memphis offense (39.8 PPG ranks 16th) owns excellent balance, passing for 246.6 YPG (65th) and rushing for 214.4 YPG (32nd). White is completing 71.7% (11-3 ratio) and Gainwell has 620 rushing yards (8.2 YPC and 6 TDs). The defense is allowing 19.2 PPG (27th) on 325.4 YPG (35th). Temple is averaging 29.8 PPG (68th) on 445.2 YPG (35th) but neither QB Russo (58.9% with an 11-6 ratio) nor RB Davis (563 RY / 6.0 YPC / 4 TdD) are quite as good as their Memphis counterparts (While and Gainwell). However, the Temple D is every bit as good, and slightly better than Memphis', allowing 17.2 PPG (19th) on 292.8 YPG (20th).

This is a tough spot for Memphis, as QB White will be facing the best D he's seen all year (he under-performed vs Ole Miss out of the SEC), as Temple ranks 3rd in pass efficiency. Temple's Russo has a strong arm and is off his first error-free game of season in the 27-17 win at East Carolina (23-34 for 208 yards with one TD and zero INTs) plus RB Davis ran for 157 yards (6.5 YPC). The Memphis D is in for a test. Temple is 3-0 SU & ATS at home this season (outscoring opponents 33.3-to-10.3 PPG) and checks in 7-1 ATS (88%) as a home dog since the beginning of 2015 (the first of the school's four straight bowl teams). The LONE loss as a home dog in that stretch was to UCF in 2017, when the Knight's went 13-0. This Memphis team may be 5-0 and ranked 23rd but it is NOT in the class of that 2017 UCF team. The home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Friday Night Lights play is on Colorado St at 8:00 ET.

The 1-5 Colorado State Rams (0-2 in MWC play) travel to Albuquerque to face the 2-3 New Mexico Lobos at Dreamstyle Stadium on Friday night. Former Georgia QB Mike Bobo took over at CSU in 2015, getting his first head coaching job. He led the Rams to three straight 7-6 seasons but each one ended with a bowl loss. The 2018 season was a 'disaster,' as CSU went just 3-9, its worst record since 2011. Clearly, the team's 1-5 start has CSU backers worried. As for New Mexico, Bob Davie came out of the TV booth/studio to take over at Albuquerque back in 2012. Davie was best known for his poor five-year run at Notre Dame (1997-2001) in which he suffered two losing seasons plus lost bowl games at the end of his three winning years. His first three New Mexico teams went 11-26 but he then but together back-to-back winning seasons (2015 & 2016), losing the New Mexico Bowl in 2015 but winning it in 2016. However, the Lobos went 3-9 in both the 2017 and 2018 seasons, going 1-7 in MWC play each year. The Lobos have opened the 2019 season 2-3 (0-1 in MWC play)

CSU is almost assured of a second straight losing season but the team's 1-5 record is somewhat deceiving. The Rams opened 2019 against in-state rival Colorado of the Pac-12, and following a win over Western Illinois, the Rams have faced the SEC’s Arkansas, 4-1 Toledo, and solid MWC schools Utah State (3-2) and San Diego State (4-1). Starting QB Collin Hill (67.5% & an 8-2 ratio) was lost for the season to a knee injury in the game at Arkansas but back-up Patrick O'Brien rallied the team from a 14-point, first half deficit to tie it at 34-all (Arkansas would win the 4Q, 21-0). However, O'Brien has thrown for 839 yards in his three starts (279.7 YPG). New Mexico got blasted 66-14 at Notre Dame (Welcome Back, Dave) and its lone two wins in 2019 have come at home against Sam Houston State (FSC) and 0-6 New Mexico St (one of three winless teams in 2019). New Mexico owns a solid running game (212.4 YPG ranks 33rd) but its defense is among the worst in the nation, allowing 39.6 PPG (126th) on 513.8 YPG (127th).

CSU badly needs a win and New Mexico St sets up as the perfect foil. The Rams have beaten the Lobos NINE straight times (average margin of victory being a right at two TDs), including all SEVEN since Davie took over in 2012 (6-1 ATS). Want more? The Lobos are 2-15 SU in MWC game since the start of 2017. There is a reason this 1-5 team is a road favorite!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* SBC Game of the Month is on ULL at 8:00 ET.

The Appalachian State Mountaineers competed in the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) from its founding in 1978 to 2013. They won three straight national championships from 2005 to 2007, the first FCS team to do so since the playoffs began in 1978. The school has competed in the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) and the Sun Belt Conference since 2014. Appalachian St became the first FCS team to receive votes in the final AP college football poll on January 8, 2008. The Mountaineers became ranked in the AP top-25 poll (at No. 25) on October 21, 2018, for the first time. The 4-0 Mountaineers travel to Louisiana-Lafayette to take on the Ragin’ Cajuns in Sun Belt Conference action on Wednesday. App St is 4-0 and owns the third-longest active winning streak in CFB at 10 in a row, while ULL checks in at 4-1 (both schools are 1-0 in SBC play).

This is a rematch of last year's SBC championship game, won by Appalachian State at home, 30-19 (the Mountaineers also won at home in the regular season, 27-17). App St owns a very balanced offense, averaging 204.8 YPG passing and 224.5 YPG rushing (47.0 PPG, 5th-best in the nation). QB Zac Thomas has completed 71.9% for 802 yards with seven TDs and two INTs. He finished with 21 TDPs and 10 rushing TDs last season, going 10-1 as the team's starter. He's now 14-1 as a starter and has led the Mountaineers to those 10 straight wins! The defense allows 420.0 YPG (94th) and 29.0 PPG (86th) but when a team is scoring 47.0 PPG, that can be overlooked.

The Ragin’ Cajuns are averaging 44,4 4 PPG (9th-best), led by the nation's top rushing offense. ULL averages 314.0 YPG on a WHOPPING 7.3 YPC. It has two VERY dangerous backs, Ragas (548 yards / 9.8 YPC / 6 TDs) and Mitchell (402 yards / 6.0 YPC / 9 TDs). The defense allows a more modest 24.1 PPG (41st) and features a very athletic secondary. ULL opened the season by losing 38-28 to Miss St in the Superdome (covered as a 19-point dog) but has since gone 4-0 SU & ATS.

Yes, ULL has lost all six meetings with App St since 2014 (including two last season) but the matchups favor them in this one. ULL’s athletic secondary ranks 13th nationally in pass defense efficiency and Appalachian State QB Zac Thomas could (should) have problems. App State’s defense hasn’t played well, allowing 109 points its last three games (36.3 PPG), to Charlotte, UNC and Coastal Carolina and overall, ranks 117th in red zone D. The team's rush D will be severely tested by ULL's top-ranked rushing attack. The last time App St lost a league game was Oct 25, 2018 at Georgia Southern (34-14), when the Eagles ran for 277 yards (5.5 YPC). The Ragin' Cajuns are the ONLY school of 130 playing in the FBS to be unbeaten ATS (5-0). Expect ULL to control the ball and clock and finally break through vs Appalachian State, keeping the team's perfect ATS mark in tack.

Good luck...Larry

My AFC 10* Game of the Year is on the Ten Titans at 1:00 ET.

The Buffalo Bills opened the season 3-0, before suffering their first loss last Sunday at home, 16-10 to the Pats. Buffalo QB Josh Allen threw three interceptions against New England last week, as the Bills offense did very little. However, the Buffalo D held the defending-champion Patriots to just 224 yards. Brday had just 150 yards passing, was held without a TD pass despite 39 attempts and was interecpeted once (QB rating of 45.9!). Buffalo held the Pats to juts 74 yards rushing (3.2 YPC) and will visit Nashville allowing 15.8 PPG (5th) on 280.8 YPG (2nd). Allen got knocked out of the game on a helmet-to-helmet hit when he failed to slide on a running play and has spent the week in concussion protocol.He had completed 64.1 percent of his passes during the 3-0 start before going 13-of-28 against the Pats. The ageless Frank Gore (he needs 249 rushing yards to pass Barry Sanders and move into third place on the all-time list) ran for 109 yards and the Bills are averaging 147.2 YPG on the ground (4th).

The Titans are coming off three straight nine-win seasons and shocked the Browns (SI's cover team) 43-13 at Cleveland in Week 1. However, the Titans have been searching for consistency for far too long. They lost 19-17 at home to Indy in Week 2 and in Week 3 lost 20-7 at Jacksonville, before winning 24-10 last Sunday in Atlanta. QB Marcus Mariota has been no paragon of consistency but he's completing 62.2% with seven TDs and not a single interception in 119 attempts (106.2 QB rating). Only TWO teams surrendered fewer points per game than the Titans last season (18.9) and they ranked eighth in yards allowed. The Tennessee D defense returned nine of 11 starters from 2018 and is currently allowing 15.5 PPG (4th) on 337.0 YPG (12th).

The Bills are waiting to see if Josh Allen will be cleared from the concussion protocol and he's listed as questionable. Backup Matt Barkley will start if Allen can't go and would make his first start since last season. He threw for 127 yards coming off the bench in last week's 16-10 loss. Whether it's Allen or Barkley, I'm backing the Titans. I'm still not sold on the Bills and believe that he Titans are a no-frills solid team without any major weaknesses, especially with Marcus Mariota stepping up his play (Mariota is the only quarterback to start every game this season without giving the ball away). The Titans didn’t permit a sack against the Falcons last Sunday (after allowing a league-high 17 sacks through the first three weeks). Now the Titans get back All-Pro offensive left tackle Taylor Lewan, who was suspended the first four games after testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug.

The Titans are sure to recall losing on a last-second 46-yard FG at Buffalo a year ago in Week 5, a defeat that loomed large, as the Titans lost a playoff berth in their regular-season finale. All teams in the AFC South are 2-2 and the Titans believe that with three of their next four games at home, it's a great opportunity to put together a winning streak. That streak starts right here, with Tennessee's first back-to-back wins of 2019.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Hou Texans at 1:00 ET.

Atlanta QB Matt Ryan has topped 300 passing yards in all four games in 2019 but the Falcons are just 1-3, after losing 24-10 at home last Sunday to the Tennessee Titans. Ryan threw for a season-high 397 yards in in Week 4 but did not throw a TD pass. All season, Atlanta's has lacked any offensive balance, as the running game is averaging just 70.2 YPG on 4.0 YPC, to rank 37th in the league. The defense ranks 8th in yards allowed (32.8 per) but 22nd in points (24.8 PPG). At the moment, Atlanta looks like the worst team in the NFC South and head coach Dan Quinn's seat warms up a little bit more with each loss.

The Texans are one of FOUR teams in the AFC South to enter Week at 2-2. Houston is coming off a lackluster 16-10 home loss to the Carolina Panthers and needs QB Deshaun Watson to "step it up." He passed for only 160 yards vs the Panthers. Watson (65.1%, 938 yards, 6 TDs, 1 INT and a QB rating of 99.9) is capable of so much more, especially with a WR like Hopkins (24 catches) and a running game that's been better than average (120.2 YPG on 5.1 YPC), even after losing Lamar Smith. The defense is allowing 19.5 PPG (10th) and the Texans have forced a turnover in 17 straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL. and one that ranks second in franchise history. Houston is tied for second in league with eight forced fumbles and five fumble recoveries.

Houston really needs this win at home, as FOUR of the team's next five games will be on the road. The good news is that the Falcons set up as the perfect foil. The Falcons are beginning a stretch in which four of their next six games are on the road plus this marks their THIRD straight contest against an AFC South team. The Falcons have lost the first two (at Indy in Week 4 and home to Tennessee in Week 4), falling to 1-12 SU their last 13 vs AFC South opponents. The ATS "clincher" is Atlanta going 4-14 ATS on the road since the start of the 29017 season, a 78% "go-against."

Good luck...Larry

My NCAAF 9* Underdog of the Month is on Michigan St at 7:30 ET.

My 9* "Best Bet" MAC ATTACK is on Toledo at 3:30 ET.

Western Michigan visits the Glass Bowl in Toledo, Ohio on Saturday, where the Rockets will host the Broncos in MAC play. Western Michigan improved to 3-2 on the season (1-0 in the MAC) with a 31-15 victory over Central Michigan last Saturday at home. This marks the Broncos' conference road opener, while for 3-1 Toledo, it's the team's conference opener. Both schools finished with identical 7-6 records in 2018 (both were also 5-3 in MAC play) but Toledo has dominated the series recently, winning SEVEN of the last nine meetings.

PJ Fleck made a 'pit stop' in Kalamazoo from 2013-16 and his final team 'rowed the boat' to a perfect 13-0 record, before falling 24-16 to Wisconsin in the Cotton Bowl. Fleck used that season to land the job at Minnesota and Tim Lester has gone 13-12 in his first two years at the school (is currently 16-14). QB Jon Wassink (63.1% / 1,466 yards / 10-4 ratio) leads an offense averaging 37.2 PPG (27th) but WMU has NOT been competitive in its two road games in 2019, losing 51-17 at Mich St and 52-33 at Syracuse.

OK, Toledo is not exactly Mich St (may not even be Syracuse) but the Rockets own a very balanced offense (207.8 YPG passing and 262.2 YPG rushing) that has them 28th in total offense (470.0 YPG) and 41st in scoring (34.5 PPG) That running game ranks 10th in the nation and while the defense is giving up too many yards, the Rockets are holding opponents to a decent 23.5 PPG (51st). Toledo has opened 2-0 at home and that's hardly news. The Rockets entered the 2019 season having posted a winning record in each of the last NINE years (eight bowl trips), while going 43-12 SU at home (now 45-12 with this year's two home victories).

As noted above, Toledo has won SEVEN of the last nine meetings with Western Michigan, with both losses coming when Fleck was rowing the boat for WMU (in 2015 and 2016). Fleck's now a Golden Gopher and these last two seasons, Toledo has won 37-10 and 51-24 (at WMU!). No reason at all for the Rockets to NOT be a bigger favorite here.

Good luck...Larry

My NCAAF 10* Game of the Week is on Kansas St at 3:30 ET.

Matt Rhule left Temple to take over a troubled Baylor program (scandal) in December of 2016 and the Bears finished the 2017 season with a 1–11 record, as Baylor failed to qualify for a bowl for the first time since 2009. Baylor finished the 2018 regular season 6-6 and received an invite to the 2018 Texas Bowl, where they won 45-38 over Vanderbilt to finish the season with a 7-6 record. Things are looking up for Baylor in 2019, as the Bears have opened 4-0. Baylor squandered a 20-0 lead Saturday in its Big 12 opener against Iowa State but redshirt-freshman John Mayers made a 38-yard field goal with 21 seconds remaining to keep the Bears perfect with a 23-21 win. Meanwhile, Kansas State, wasn’t so fortunate, losing 26-13 at Oklahoma State last Saturday in its Big 12 opener after a 3-0 start. “The thing about it is I think you can learn a lot more from a loss than you do with a win,” Wildcats first-year head coach Chris Klieman said Monday on the Big 12 coaches teleconference. “We’re going to learn an awful lot from this.”

Baylor QB Charlie Brewer threw for a season-high 307 yards and passed for three TDs in the win over Iowa St. He's completing 66.4% for 972 yards with 10 TDs and not a single INT. He's supported by a solid running game, averaging 216.0 YPG (31st), as the Bears head to Manhattan averaging 40.8 PPG (15th). The defense has done its job as well, allowing 16.2 PPG (20th) on 297.5 YPG (24th). The Wildcats also possess one of the Big 12’s top defenses, ranking 17th in the nation in allowing 16.0 PPG on 323.5 YPG (35th), despite being gashed for 526 total yards by Okla St. I guess the good news would be, KSU held the Cowboys to a season-low 26 points.

Baylor's 4-0 start is its best since beginning 2016 with six straight wins and will come to Manhattan as one of 18 undefeated FBS teams. However, Baylor has had problems covering the number in this matchup, going 1-4 ATS in the last five at Kansas St and 3-7 the last 10 meetings, overall. Baylor's first three wins of 2019 have come over FCS SF Austin (1-4), UTSA (1-3) and Rice (0-5) plus the Bears were VERY lucky to escape last Saturday vs Iowa St. I don't expect the Bears to be so lucky here in Manhattan, where the Wildcats have covered SIX of their last seven. Baylor falls from the ranks of the unbeaten in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye-Opener is on Iowa State at 12:00 ET.

TCU still hasn't decided on a starting QB, as the Horned Frogs used three different QBs while rolling up 625 yards in last week's 51-14 win over Kansas. True freshman starter Max Duggan, fifth-year senior Alex Delton (who started the first two games of the season) and junior Mike Collins all seeing action in the second half. Head coach Gary Patterson wouldn't tip his hand as to who his starter would be against the Cyclones but whoever gets the start, will have the benefit of a rushing attack averaging 275.2 YPG (8th). The 3-1 Horned Frogs visit Ames on Saturday looking to open 2-0 in the Big 12. Iowa St is 2-2 but 0-1 in the Big 12 and unlike TCU, is having all sorts of trouble running the ball, averaging 152.2 YPG (76th) on the season, after gaining only 63 yards (2.3 YPC) on the ground in last Saturday's 23-21 loss at Baylor.

Duggan is just the second true freshman to start at QB during the 19-season head coaching tenure of Gary Patterson and completed 8-of-11 passes for 100 yards and two TDs against the Jayhawks ,while Delton, a Kansas State transfer, was 10-of-15 for 186 yards and also rushed for 21 yards. Both are expected to see significant snaps. Senior RB Darius Anderson is having a breakout year, rushing for 483 yards (8.2 YPC) with five TDs. His best previous season at TCU was in 2017, when he gained 768 yards for the entire year. Patterson's teams typically play good D and this year's squad is holding opponents to 18.8 PPG (30th) on 246.0 YPG (4th).

Iowa St may have issues running the ball (the Cyclones have rotated five different RBs) but QB Brock Purdy ranks fourth nationally in total offense (358.0 YPG) and seventh in the nation in passing yards (332.8 YPG), coming in with back-to-back 300-yard passing games. Iowa St was held to just 17 points by Iowa but is still averaging 34.8 PPG (38th) and the defense is allowing a modest 21.8 PPG (45th).

Iowa St's two losses are to Iowa and Baylor (both are 4-0) and have come by a total of just THREE points. The Cyclones fell behind 20-0 at Baylor last Saturday but rallied back with 21 straight points in the fourth quarter to take a one-point lead with 3:45 remaining However, ISU lost on a 38-yard field goal with just 21 seconds left. The Iowa loss was not any easier to take, as the Cyclones led 14-6 late in the third quarter, before closing 18-17 on a FG with just under five minutes left.

Purdy took over as ISU's starting QB on Oct 13 last year and led the Cyclones to a 7-1 finish, before losing 28-26 to Washington St in the Alamo Bowl. He's 2-2 this year, with those two "close losses." The Cyclones are 8-2 SU in their last 10 home games, losing in 2018 to then-No. 5 Oklahoma (ATS win) and to current No. 14 Iowa in 2019 (another ATS win). The Cyclones have owned the month of October vs Big 12 opponents (home or away) since 2017, going a PERFECT 7-0 SU & ATS. Make that 8-0!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Friday Night Lights Play (AAC Game of the Month) is on UCF at 8:00 ET.

The 3-1 Cincinnati Bearcats will play their AAC opener Friday night when they welcome 4-1 UCF to Nippert Stadium. UCF is ranked 18th in the latest AP poll and is coming off a 56-21 rout of Connecticut to open its AAC slate. The Knights rebounded from their first loss in 26 regular-season games (35-34 at Pittsburgh on Sep 22), by registering 607 yards of total offense. Cincinnati is coming off it best game of 2019, dominating both sides of the ball in a 52-14 rout at Marshall on Sep 28. The Bearcats out-gained the Thundering Herd 525-256, as they kept Marshall off the scoreboard until the fourth quarter.

Freshman QB Dillon Gabriel threw for three TDs against UConn and after five games has completed 61.7% for 1,338 yards with a 14-2 ratio. UCF's running game adds excellent balance to an offense averaging 49.0 PPG (6th) on 568.6 YPG (2nd). Three RBs have more than 250 yards rushing, led by McCrae (323 YR / 6.2 YPC) and Killins (310 YR / 7.4 YPC). When a team's offense is averaging seven TDs per game, a defense allowing 19.4 PPG (33rd) on 324.8 YPG (36th) is more than adequate.

Cincy's sophomore QB Desmond Ridder was named AAC Offensive Player of the Week with his four TD passes against Marshall. Ridder has a pair of reliable receivers in WR Alec Pierce (14 receptions, 277 yards, TD) and TE Josiah Deguara (12 catches, 183 yards, 3 TDs),. The running agme is decent (186.5 YPG ranks 52nd) and despite getting shutout 42-0 by Ohio St, Cincy is averaging 27.8 PPG (80th). The Cincy D is pretty good, holding the team's three opponents (not named Ohio St) to just 13.7 PPG

Luke Fickell was appointed head coach at Ohio St when Jim Tressel was forced out in 2011 but the next year was introduced as Urban Meyer's co-defensive coordinator. He took the Cincy job in 2017 and went just 4-8. However, he went 11-2 last season, including a 35-31 Military Bowl win over Va Tech. His Bearcats take a NINE-game home winning streak into this contest but is beating a UCF a 'bridge too far?' My bet says Y-E-S! The Knights have scored 30 points or more in 32 straight games and have won 19 straight AAC games, with the average margin of victory checking in at 21.0 PPG (just ONE win has had a margin of less than seven points). These schools have met three times in the Frost/Heupel era (2016-18), with UCF winning 24-3, 51-23 (game was cut short because of thunderstorms) and 38-13. Deja vu!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFC West Game of the Month is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET.

The LA Rams opened 8-0 last season on their way to a Super Bowl appearance against the NE Pats. The Rams opened 3-0 in 2019 but the team hardly looked as good as it did for most of the 2018 season. The Rams welcomed the Bucs to LA in Week 4 and got blasted, 55-40! Jared Goff set a career high with 517 yards passing but his two TD passes were offset by THREE interceptions and his NFL record-tying 45 completions were a telling sign of LA's one-dimensional offense. Seattle is also off to a 3-1 start in 2019 but its three victories have come against opponents with a combined 1-10-1 record, including a pair of wins by a combined three points!

Rams head coach Sean McVay said after Todd Gurley and Malcolm Brown split 10 carries for a combined 30 yards rushing against the Bucs that, "We never really got back into our normal down-and-distance operation, where we could be underneath the center and have some run-pass balance. I think that puts a lot of stress on the quarterback, on the offensive line." WR Cooper Kupp, who went down in Week 10 of 2018 with a knee injury, is back healthy and has 32 catches and an NFC-best 388 yards in four games. Woods has 26 catches and Cooks has 19. The LA defense surely needs a bounce-back effort, after allowing 55 points and yards to the Bucs. Is this the same D which allowed 24.0 PPG on 358.6 YPG in 2018?

Russell Wilson did not put up eye-popping stats against Arizona with 240 yards and a score in the 27-10 win, but he registered his fourth consecutive game with at least a 102.6 QB rating. Wilson is completing 72.9% on the season for 1,141 yards with eight TDs and zero INTs (118.7 QB rating). “I think he’s off to his best start ever,” head coach Pete Carroll said. "I don’t care how big the numbers are, I’m not talking about how many yards or whatever, just his play has been really, really sharp." However, Wilson has not had the luxury of the NFL's top rushing offense like he did in 2018. Seattle averaged a league-high 160.0 YPG (4.8 YPC) in 2018 but is averaging a way more modest 115.0 YPG (4.0 YPC) so far in 2019.

Seattle was fortunate to eke out a one-point home win over Cincinnati in Week 1 (Bengals are currently 0-4) and then in Week 3, lost 33-27 at home to the Brees-less Saints. Seattle entered that game vs the Saints 15-0 in September home games since Pete Carroll took over in 2010, making the Seahawks the ONLY unbeaten team in September during that time frame (so much for that). The once-feared "Legion of Boom" defense is no more and Seattle's home field isn’t as powerful as it once was either, with the Seahawks going just 16-17-2 ATS since 2015 at Century Link Field. The Rams are are in full "bounce-back mode" after allowing 55 points in a two-TD loss at home to the Bucs and it is impossible to ignore that the Rams are 15-3 SU on the road since McVay has taken over. Rams get the 'W' and the cover.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the Pit Steelers at 8:15 ET.

As NFL Week 4 comes to close, SEVEN teams remain winless. Two of those winless teams, long-time AFC North rivals Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, meet tonight at Heinz Field. Both have opened 0-3, with the Bengals hoping to avoid their first 0-4 start since 2008 and the Steelers looking to avoid losing their first four games for just the SECOND time time since 1968! Neither team has been able to run the ball, with Cincy averaging 41.7 YPG on the ground (32nd) and the Steelers averaging 64.0 YPG (29th). Dalton has  played fairly well for Cincy but the team's D is allowing 27.7 PPG (27th) on 406.3 YPG (28th). With Big Ben out, Pittsburgh is averaging only 16.3 PPG (30th) on 269.3 YPG (30th). More troubling is the fact that the once-vaunted Pittsburgh D is allowing 28.3 PPG (28th) on 442.0 YPG (31st). So where does it leaves us for this game?

Dalton entered Week 4 ranked second in the league with 979 passing yards but it's hard to win when one's rushing game is averaging less than 50 YPG and is averaging only 2.4 YPC. Mason Rudolph made his first career NFL in Week 3 at San Francisco and overcame some early nerves to throw for 174 yards and a pair of second-half TDs. The Steelers actually had the ball and the lead late in the fourth quarter before James Conner's fumble set up San Francisco for the winning TD with just 1:15 left in the game, denying Rudolph his first win as an NFL starter. .

Someone will be 0-4 after this game (barring a tie) and I can't see NOT playing the Steelers in this one. After all, Pittsburgh has won EIGHT straight (including a wild card win at Cincy in 2015) and 11 of its last 12 against Cincinnati. The average margin of victory in Pittsburgh's three home wins over Cincinnati in that stretch is 8.7 PPG. Considering the line, Pittsburgh deserves a top-rating of 10*s.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* SNF Magic Play is on the NO Saints at 8:20 ET.

The Dallas Cowboys fought all off-season with RB Elliott but he signed late and Dallas entered the season with lofty aspirations. The Cowboys have opened 3-0 SU and ATS, having eclipsed 30 points in each of their three victories. QB Dak Prescott has been outstanding, completing 74.5% for 920 yards with nine TDs and two INTs. His QB rating of 128.0 is second to only Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes. Elliott has 289 yards rushing (5.3 YPC) for a run game that is averaging 179.0 YPG (3rd-best in the NFL). The Cowboys will visit 2-1 New Orleans fro Sunday Night Football, with the Saints coming off an impressive 33-27 victory at Seattle behind backup QB Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater was 19 of 27 for 177 yards with 2 TDs and zero INTs in first 'real' start since 2015 (I'm not counting his Week 17 start in 2018, playing with "the scrubs").

Prescott's been terrific and WR Amari Cooper,has 16 catches and four TD catches. As for Elliott, he's posted back-to-back 100-yard games. However, the schedule-makers have been VERY kind to Dallas these first three weeks. Dallas hosted the defensively-challenged NY Giants (31.3 PPG on 460.3 YPG) in Week 1, won at sad-sack Washington (allowing 31.3 PPG, as well) in Week 2 and then beat pathetic Miami last week (0-3 & 0-3 ATS, scoring an NFL-low 5.3 PPG and allowing an NFL-high 44.3 PPG).

With Brees sidelined following thumb surgery, New Orleans put the ball in the hands of its best offensive player and Alvin Kamara responded by rushing for 69 yards and a touchdown and catching nine passes for 92 yards a score. Teddy Bridgewater should be even better with another week of reps and expect more from top-flight WR Michael Thomas (25 receptions), who scored his first TD of the season last week. However, the Saints D has to get better. New Orleans has allowed 27 points for the third straight week and checks in allowing 27.3 PPG (26th) on 436.0 YPG (29th).

It's hard to quote historical numbers for New Orleans, without Brees at QB. However, I sure love the small home underdog in this one. The Cowboys haven't been REMOTELY tested as of yet (see above for a reminder) and winning a SNF road game at this venue is a 'bridge too far.'

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Ind Colts at 10:00 ET.

The Colts opened the 2019 season with back-to-back road games, losing 30-24 (in OT) at LA vs the Chargers in Week 1, before winning 19-17 at Tennessee in Week 2 as a three-point underdog. Indy returned to Lucas Oil Stadium in Week and held on to beat the Falcons, 27-24. The Colts are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS. The sudden and unexpected retirement of Andrew Luck has clearly NOT negatively affected the Colts. Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew Luck but he was superb against the Falcons, completing his first 16 attempts while finishing 28-of-37 for 310 yards and two TDs. The 1-2 Oakland Raiders visit Indy on a two-game losing streak. The Raiders opened the season with a 24-16 home win over the Broncos(who are 0-3) but have followed with a 28-10 home loss to the Chiefs (Raiders led 10-0) and a 34-14 road loss at Minnesota.

Jon Gruden's "second go-round" as Oakland's head coach has not gone smoothly. The Raiders were 4-12 in 2018 and now 1-2 to open 2019. The offense is averaging only 16.0 PPG (29th) on 322.0 YPG (27th), while the defense allows 26.0 PPG (23rd) on 405.0 YPG (26th). Two players have made their marks early on for Oakland, TE Darren Waller and rookie RB (Ala) Josh Jacobs. Waller had career bests of 13 receptions and 134 yards last week and leads all players at his position and ranking second overall in the NFL with 26 receptions. Josh Jacobs tops all rookies with 228 rushing yards. However, Oakland's early season schedule is a 'killer' (more in just a bit).

Brissett is completing 71.7% of his passes with seven TDs and just one INT (QB rating of 112.0), while RB N\Marlon Mack (299 yards / 4.9 YPC) leads a running game that averages a healthy 149.7 YPG (6th). Indy's defense heads into Sunday's game against Oakland ranked in the bottom half of the league in yards rushing, yards passing and total yards allowed plus only six teams have fewer takeaways than the Colts' three. However, the Colts have not allowed a 100-yard rusher in any of the team's last 21 contests.

The Raiders will go straight from Indianapolis to London, where they will spend the week practicing before a "home" game against Chicago. Oakland is in the midst of a stretch that features 48 days between games at the Oakland Coliseum, with four road games, one off week, and the trip to London. This week marks the second of FIVE straight games that start at 10 a.m. PT and Oakland has lost SEVEN straight in the early Sunday time slot. Want more? Oakland is just 3-14 SU and 4-12-1 ATS on the road (a 75% "go-against") since the team made the playoffs in 2016 with a 12-4 record. Those 14 SU losses have come by an average margin of defeat of 15.9 PPG. Has Gruden helped things? He's 1-8 SU on the road (in going 1-7 last year, the Raiders scored a league-low 12.7 points per game on the road), as the Raiders have been outscored by 137 points in their last nine away games. Switching back to the Colts, they lost first two home games last season but have reeled off SEVEN straight wins, the second-longest active streak behind New England (15). Last Sunday's 27-24 win also marked the NINTH in a row at home in which the Colts have scored at least 23 points. That's tied for the league's third-longest streak with the LA Rams and behind New England (13) and Kansas City (12). There's little doubt among the players that the noise and atmosphere of Lucas Oil Stadium have helped. I agree. Colts wish the Raiders well in their travels to London, sending them away with another double-digit loss. Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on Nevada at 10:30 ET.

A pair of 3-1 schools square off Saturday night, when the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors visit Mackay Stadium to take on the Nevada Wolf Pack. Hawaii opened the season with a 45-38 home upset of Arizona (Hawaii was a 10 1/2-point dog), then added home wins over Oregon St and Central Arkansas, sandwiched around a 52-20 loss at Washington. QB Cole McDonald leads a passing game which ranks 6th in the nation (352.8 YPG) and while he has thrown 13 TDs, he's also been picked off NINE times. He gets little help from a running game that averages only 121.0 YPPG, which ranks 104th in the nation. Hawaii's D has allowed an average of more than 30 PPG in FIVE of the last six seasons and enters this contest allowing 33.5 PPG. That ranks 106th in the nation, as does the 439.5 YPG the defense allows, overall.

Nevada began 2019 with a home upset as well, beating Purdue 34-31 as an 11-point home dog. Nevada's lone loss so far came in its second game, 77-6 at Oregon, which was coming a late-loss in its season-opener against Auburn (a loss was understandable but the 71-point margin was admittedly, a bit much). The Wolf Pack come into this contest off back-to-back wins, including a 37-21 road win at UTEP. Nevada has a more balanced offense than Hawaii but is averaging a modest 24.0 PPG (100th). The defensive numbers are skewered due to the Oregon game but I will note that Nevada is allowing 50 YPG less than Hawaii (389.5 per game) on the season.

This marks the MWC opener for both teams and history does play a HUGE role in my taking Nevada, especially at this short price. The "June Jones era" is a thing of past. He took Hawaii to SIX bowls in his nine seasons (1999-2007), including a Sugar Bowl (BCS Bowl) at the end of the 2006 season, when Hawaii went 12-0 in the regular season (got crushed by Georgia, 41-10). Hawaii's had just TWO winning seasons in the 11 years since Jones left and the Rainbows Warriors have been regular underachievers on the road. Including this season's blowout loss at Washington, Hawaii enters this contest 18-49 SU on the road in the 11-plus seasons since Jones left. In contrast, Nevada has owned a solid home advantage here in Mackay Stadium, going 60-27 SU since 2005. Nevada has won EIGHT of the last 10 meetings with Hawaii, including all FIVE at home with an average margin of victory of 14.0 PPG. At this price, I have to LOVE Nevada!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on Old Dominion at 6:00 ET.

The 2-2 East Carolina Pirates and the 1-2 Old Dominion Monarchs meet Saturday in Norfolk, Va  for a non-conference game for both teams. East Carolina entered this season off three consecutive 3-9 years and the Pirates opened the season with a 34-6 loss at NC State, getting outgained 505-to-269 in yards. A 49-9 home win over Gardner Webb hardly proved much much and ECU then lost at Navy on Sep 14, 42-10 (got outgained 468-to-222 yards). ECU evened its record at 2-2 last Saturday with a 19-7 home win over William and Mary. ODU looks to even its record this Saturday, after opening the season with an unimpressive 24-21 win over Norfolk St but then dropping two in a row. However, the Monarchs have "shown well" in their two losses. ODU 'hung' with Va Tech at Blacksburg, losing 31-17 as a 30-point underdog. Last Saturday at UVa, ODU jumped out to a 17-0 lead over the Cavs (UVa came into the game ranked 21st in the AP poll), before losing just 28-17 (as a 27-point underdog).

East Carolina does come from the tougher conference (AAC vs C-USA) but the Pirates two wins this season have come at home against FCS teams, while their two road games against FBS teams have seen them get outscored 76-16 and outgained, 973-to-491. OK, Old Dominion is not in the class of NC State (or even Navy) but I noted above just how well the Monarchs played at Va Tech and UVa. This team deserves get a VERY beatable opponent here at home, after those two excellent efforts. ECU sure "fits the ball," as the Pirates are 1-17 SU since 2016 on the road, going 3-15 ATS (which is an 83% "go-against).

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Friday Night Lights play is on Arizona St at 10:30 ET.

California got off to its third consecutive 3-0 start in 2019 and entered the AP top-25 on Sep 15 at No. 23. Cal visited Oxford last Saturday and secured a 28-20 road victory over Ole Miss with a last-second stop at the goal line plus received a breakout performance by QB Chase Garbers, who threw for four TDs and finished 23-of-35 for 357 yards in the air. Cal's win saw them make the biggest 'leap' of any school in the new AP poll (Sep 22), jumping from No. 23 to No. 15. Cal welcomes Arizona State to Berkeley Friday night. The Sun Devils upset then-No. 18 Michigan St 10-7 at East Lansing on Sep 14, moving to 3-0 and No. 24 in the AP poll. However, ASU lost 34-31 at home last Saturday to Colorado and at 3-1, fell out of the rankings.

ASU has a freshman QB in Daniels and he's 'learning fast.' He opened by throwing for 588 yards (3 TDs and 0 INTs) in ASU's first two games but then had all sorts of problems at Mich St, throwing for just 140 yards. Yes, the Sun Devils lost to the Buffs last Saturday, but Daniels passed for 345 yards with two TDs. Cal's D has gotten a lot of pub since late 2018 (and with good reason) but despite allowing 34 points to Colorado, the ASU defense is allowing only 13.8 PPG (17th) on 346.0 YPG (49th). PK Brandon Ruiz has yet to play this season because of an undisclosed injury and is unlikely to return Friday. However, walk-on kicker Cristian Zendejas may not have his range, but he's made NINE of his 10 field-goal attempts.

Cal was hardly impressive in 27-13 and 23-17 wins over UC-Davis and North Texas at home, respectively, but owns two quality road wins. The Bears won 20-19 at then-No. 14 Washington and then at SEC foe Ole Miss  (see above). QB Chase Garbers came into Oxford last Saturday having completed just 20- of 40 passes for 240 yards in his previous two games but threw for 357 yards and four TDs vs the Rebels. Cal needed "all of that," as its much-heralded defense did hold Ole Miss to 20 points (the Bears have held 11 straight opponents to fewer than 24 points) but a check of the stat sheet shows a mediocre Ole Miss offense gained 525 yards!

ASU suffered a let down against Colorado off its win at MSU the week before but Herm Edwards knows his team really needs a bounce-back win here. Is Cal really as good as its press clippings? I'm not sold and will note that Cal was 1-5-1 ATS at home last season and is 0-2 ATS at home to start 2019. Meanwhile, ASU is 7-2-1 ATS its last 10 as a road dog. I'm calling for the outright upset.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Thursday Showdown is on the Phi Eagles at 8:20 ET.

The Green Bay Packers fired longtime head coach Mike McCarthy late last season and gave 39-year-old Matt LaFleur his first head coaching job. So far, so good. The Packers are one of SEVEN teams to open 2019 at 3-0 (note: 136 of the 180 teams or 75.5 percent to start 3-0 have made the playoffs since 1980). The Packers are seeking their first 4-0 start in four years when they host the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday night. The Eagles, who won the Super Bowl in the 2017 season, check in at just 1-2, with the two loses coming by a combined SEVEN points. Here's a stat the Eagles won't like. Only one team in the Super Bowl era, the 2001 New England Patriots, started the season 1-3 and rebounded to win it all.

The Eagles rallied from a 17-0 deficit in Week 1 against Washington to take a 32-20 lead. However, Washington scored with six seconds left to make it a 32-27 and a non-cover for Philly. The Eagles followed that Week 1 win with back-to-back games at Atlanta (24-20) and at home to Detroit (27-24).Head coach Doug Pederson canceled practice one day last week due to the number of injuries on the team but the receiving corps will get a boost with the return of Alshon Jeffery after he sat out Sunday's contest due to a calf strain. DeSean Jackson remains sidelined with an abdominal strain but Nelson Agholor has been a pretty good "fill in," with 18 catches and three TDs on the season. TE Zach Ertz has a team-high 17 receptions but has yet to find the end zone. Carson Wentz clearly needs more help from his running game, which is averaging 99.7 YPG (17th) on 3.6 YPC. The Philly pass D is a mess, surrendering 293.7 YPG (29th), with the pass rush recorded only two sacks in three games.

However, who could have imagined a Rodgers-led offense ranking 28th in total yards (286.7 YPPG), including 197.2 YPG passing (27th)? That's the case though, as the Packers check in scoring only 19.3 PPG (23rd). "We've never wanted to just manage the football game around here, so the standards are very high for us," Aaron Rodgers said. "We gotta play a lot better on offense. We've played some good defenses, no doubt about it, but the standard and the expectations are very high here and we haven't met them on offense. ... At some point, we can't expect our defense to shut everybody down. They have been. But at some point the offense is going to have to wake up and start making some plays." Defense has been the key to Green Bay's 3-0 start, holding opponents to 11.7 PPG (2nd-best in the NFL).

Wentz is completing 61.0% for 803 yards with six TDs and two INTs, which isn't bad. As noted already, he's NOT getting much help from his running game plus Wentz had EIGHT of his passes dropped against the Lions, including a deep ball to J.J. Arcega-Whiteside that could've been the go-ahead score in the final minute. A week earlier, Nelson Agholor dropped what could've been a go-ahead 60-yard TD with under two minutes left in a 24-20 loss at Atlanta. Philly could be 3-0, instead of 1-2. The Packers are not just 3-0 but also 3-0 ATS but I'm not convinced the Packers are a better team than the Eagles. Matt LaFleur may be 3-0 but Doug Pederson is a Super Bowl-winning coach and a 1-3 Philly start would put his team in "crisis-mode" before Oct 1. The Eagles are 0-3 ATS and Green Bay 3-0 ATS but that changes here. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My NCAAF 10* Thursday Game of the Month is on Navy at 8:00 ET.

My 10* Monday Night Madness is on the Was Redskins at 8:15 ET.

The Chicago Bears' defense (17.7 PPG allowed was an NFL-best) helped them win the NFC North last year at 12-4. Chicago's D has opened the current season allowing just 12.0 PPG but the team's offense has been absolutely pathetic, averaging 9.5 PPG to rank 31st of 32 teams! Chicago lost 10-3 at home to the Packers in Week 3 and then eked out a 16-14 win at Denver in Week 2. The Washington Redskins have opened 0-2, losing 32-27 at Philly and 31-21 at home to Dallas. Washington's defense has allowed 31.5 PPG (2nd-most in the league) on 455.0 YPG (3rd-highest total). It will be a QB 'battle' of Trubisky vs Keenum, not exactly a replay of Luckman vs Baugh in the 1940 NFL championship game (note: Bears famously won that won 73-0!).

Trubisky (58.3% for 348 yards without a TD pass and one INT for a 65.0 QB rating so far in 2019) was the "controversial" No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft but has led the Bears to just one TD in 22 offensive possessions this season. Chicago's lone TD came on a 1-yard-run by David Montgomery last week and the team is averaging only 99.5 YPG on the ground (18th). That is hardly good enough when Trubisky ranks near the bottom of the league at 4.8 yards a completion. The defense is still impressive but....Washington QB Case Keenum has limited offensive 'weapons' but he's played well against two quality teams, Philly and Dallas. Keenum is completing 69.1% for 601 yards with five TDs, zero INTs and a QB rating of 111.2. Of course, the defense is a concern but Chicago's "O" may be "just what the doctor ordered" for Washington's "stop-unit." Is it fair to call Washington's D a stop unit?

Chicago is VERY lucky to be 1-1, as PK Eddie Pineiro bailed them out by making a 53-yard FB at the gun last week in Denver. Mitchell Trubisky has so far "taken a step back" in his third season and laying points on the road (no less on Monday night), seems like 'a bridge too far!' Jay Gruden's team has gone 6-2 ATS since the start of last year when his team was playing with a healthy starting QB. Keenum's healthy AND he's played very well. The home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Chargers at 4:25 ET.

The Los Angeles Chargers needed OT to against the Colts in Week 1 to escape with a 30-24 win. LA is back at home on Sunday, looking to bounce back from a mistake-filled 13-10 loss at Detroit in Week 2. LA's miscues were personified by a third-quarter drive during which it had two TDs nullified and saw running back Austin Ekeler lose a fumble at the one-yard line. The Houston Texans visit The StubHub Center in Carson, Ca 1-1 as well, having lost at New Orleans 30-28 in Week 1 on a 58-yard FG as time expired but then surviving a failed two-point conversion try by the Jaguars in Houston at home in Week 2, eking out a 13-12 victory.

Houston QB Deshaun Watson was terrific in Week 1 at New Orleans, passing for 268 yards (3 TDs, 1 INT and 114.3 QB rating) plus rushing for 40 yards and a fourth TD. However, as the Texans have seen too often, he passed for just 159 yards against Jacksonville (0 TDs, 0 INTs and a 70.9 rating), while rushing for just FIVE yards. The Texans were thought to be in big trouble when RB Lamar Smith was lost in the preseason but Hyde (173 yards / 5.8 YPC) and Johnson (88 yards / 5.9 YPC) have surprised, with Houston averaging 153.0 YPG on the ground (5th), on 5.8 YPC. One would think the team's solid running game would be a HUGE plus for Watson but the Texans have yet to shore up their NFL-worst pass protection. Watson has been sacked 10 times in the season's first two weeks.

Philip Rivers (the 4th pick of the 2004 draft) will make his 209th consecutive start on Sunday, tying him with Eli Manning for the second-longest QB starting streak in NFL history. It's ironic that it comes in a week in which Manning, who was the No. 1 pick in the 2004 draft, was benched by the Giants for rookie Daniel Jones. Another alum from that 2004 draft, Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger (the No. 11 overall selection), will miss the rest of the season with an elbow injury suffered last week against Seattle. Meanwhile, Rivers just keeps chugging along. He's topped 4,000 passing in 10 of his last 11 seasons, throwing between 26 and 34 TD passes per year in that stretch plus has posted QB ratings of over 100 in FIVE of the 11. He's got a 377-to-180 TD-to-INT ratio for his career, after throwing 60 TDs with just 22 INTs the last two seasons. The Chargers were also expected to have running game issues with Melvin Gordon's holdout but Austin Ekeler has 287 yards from scrimmage (124 rushing, 163 receiving) and Justin Jackson is averaging an amazing 8.9 YPC while adding 116 yards rushing.

The small MLS venue in Carson (30,000 capacity) has never provided the Chargers with much of a home edge since the move from San Diego (6-10-1 ATS) but LA's top pass-rushers, Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram could be huge difference-makers in this one, as Watson has been sacked at least FOUR times in EIGHT straight games. The Chargers had 424 yards at Detroit last Sunday but scored just 10 points, as two TDs were nullified by penalties (9 penalties in all for 70 yards). Throw in two TOs (one at the Lions' one-yard line) plus two missed FGs and you can see why. DO NOT expect a repeat performance.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Week is on the Ind Colts at 1:00 ET.

Falcons head coach Dan Quinn denies he's on the "hot seat" in Atlanta but I'm pretty sure he's mighty glad that Matt Ryan drove the Falcons 75yards in just over a minute to what turned out to be the game-winning TD with 2:10 left in last Sunday night's game vs the Eagles. The Falcons avoided an 0-2 start but now travel to Indianapolis to take on the Colts and if history is any guide, winning will not come easy.The Falcons have won just TWICE (in 16 meetings) in a series that began back in Atlanta's expansion year of 1966. That may not be all that relevant but I'll add some current trends later, that are. The Colts have opened the 2019 season with back-to-back road games, losing 30-24 (in OT) at LA vs the Chargers in Week 1, before winning 19-17 at Tennessee in Week 2 as a three-point underdog. Indy returns to Lucas Oil Stadium for the first time since Aug 24, when fans booed as Andrew Luck left the field before announcing his retirement (real classy move!).

Atlanta's once-feared offense is averaging a modest 18.0 PPG (23rd) and QB Ryan, who had just SEVEN interceptions all of 2018 (608 attempts), already has FIVE after two games (89 attempts),including TWO in the red zone. Atlanta's rushing game is adding just 65.0 YPG (28th), as Devonta Freeman has run for only 41 yards (2.2 YPC) in two games, with no run longer than nine. Atlanta's rush D was gashed on the road by the Vikings in Week 1 (172 yards), in game Atlanta trailed 28-0 into the fourth quarter (final was 28-12). The Falcons are allowing 24.0 PPG (23rd) after two games.

The sudden and unexpected retirement of Luck has clearly NOT negatively affected the Colts, who could easily be 2-0 to start 2019. OK, Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew luck, throwing for just 336 yards after two games. However, he's completing 69.1% and has five TD passes and just one INT. The big news in Indy is the strength of the team's OL and its running game. Marlon Mack ranks No. 3 among all RBs with 225 rushing yards (5.0 YPC) and the Colts are tied with the Vikings as the NFL's second-best rushing team (185.0 YPG on 5.5 YPC). Indy's D is so-so but Atlanta lacks a running game and Ryan has always been a much better QB at home, than on the road.

Indy, like the Vikings, should be able to control the tempo of the game by running and as noted, Brissett has been a playmaker. I could point to the fact that the Falcons are on a 1-8 ATS run as a road underdog but since the Colts are barely favored, I'll rely more on the fact the the Falcons are a 'money-burning' 4-13 ATS (that's a 76% "go-against") on the road since the start of the 2017 season. I was "all over" the Vikings against the Falcons in Week 1 and then had Atlanta in its SNF win in Week 2. I make it THREE in a row with Atlanta games this season by taking the Colts in Week 3.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on North Carolina at 3:30 ET.

Mack Brown had a great six-year run at North Carolina from 1992-1997. He led the Tar Heels to six straight bowls and had three, 10-win seasons. That was a springboard to take the job at Texas. He won nine games in each of his first three years but then won double digits in NINE consecutive season (2001-09). His 2004 team won the BCS national championship by ending USC's 34-game winning streak, 41-38. The 2009 team lost the BCS national championship game 37-21 to Alabama. Brown would coach the Longhorns for four more seasons but the 'Horns went just 30-21 and Brown resigned after the 2013 season. Brown was named head coach at North Carolina in November of 2018 after a 5-year absence from coaching and 21 years after he left UNC for Texas. The Tar Heels upset South Carolina in Charlotte 24-20 as a 12 1/2-point dog on Aug 31 and then, after watching a 17-3 first-quarter lead evaporate (UNC trailed 25-20 with about 4 1/2 minutes left), pulled it together and scored a TD and added a two-point conversion with 1:01 remaining for a 28-25 victory. However, the Tar Heels lost their first true road game of 2019 at Wake Forest, 24-18. North Carolina used fourth-quarter comebacks to win its first two games of the season and came back from 21-3 down in the final quarter against Wake but time ran out on them.

2-0 Appalachian State comes to Chapel Hill this Saturday, after enjoying an early-season bye week. The Mountaineers scored a combined 98 points in home victories over East Tennessee State and Charlotte to open the season and are certainly one of the top contenders in the Sun Belt (note: App St received 12 votes in the national coaches poll this week). RB Darrynton Evanshas rushed for 333 yards in two games (10.1 YPC / 4 TDs), while QB Zac Thomas has completed 68.2% for 332 yards with five TDs and zero INTs. He finished with 21 TDPs and 10 rushing TDs last season, going 10-1 as the team's starter. He's now 12-1 as a starter and has led the Mountaineers to EIGHT straight wins. Appalachian State is averaging 49.0 PPG (12th) and 276.5 YPG rushing (14th) but of course, the team's first two opponents leave much to be desired.

North Carolina freshman Sam Howell has passed for 701 yards with six TDs and zero INTs plus has two RBs making contributions, Javonte Williams (205 yards on 5.5 YPC) and Michael Carter (203 yards on 5.1 YPC).These schools are just 163 miles apart but will meet for the first time since 1940. Appalachian State's transition to FBS staus has gone smoothly, as the Mountaineers are 41-11 the last four seasons, going to and WINNING four bowl games. However, all that success came under head coach Scott Satterfield, who is now at Louisville. Elijah Drinkwitz is in his first year as a head coach in 2019 and home wins over ETSU and Charlotte haven't proved much of anything. This will be the Mountaineers' first road game and North Carolina will surely look to keep an in-state school like Appalachian State "in its place!"

Howell is the first-ever first true freshman to start a season at QB for North Carolina and he opened his career with two straight 4th-quarter comeback wins, before falling just short in his third game. Mack Brown has reinvigorated the UNC program with confidence and with the school's ACC opener looming next Saturday (against No. 1 Clemson), Brown surely won't want to go into that contest off two straight losses. No one will ever forget Appalachian State's infamous 34-32 upset at Michigan (as a 4-TD underdog) back in 2007 but let me point out that the Mountaineers are 1-15 SU against Power-5 schools this century. No real number to 'sneak under' in this one. Take the Tar Heels.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Sep Game of the Month is on Ohio U at 2:00 ET.

The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns won NINE games each season in a four-year stretch from 2011 through 2014, playing in four consecutive New Orleans Bowls (ULL won AND covered each one!). However, ULL opened this season on a three-year run of just 18-21, including two bowl losses. The Ragin' Cajuns opened the 2019 season  with a 38-28 loss to Miss St (game was played in New Orleans, not Lafayette), before winning home games over Liberty (35-14) and Texas Southern (77-6). ULL was a 19-point underdog against Miss St, so the team heads into its first true road game of the season a perfect 3-0 ATS.

Ohio U opened the season with a 41-20 win over Rhode Island but has lost two straight since, both on the road. The Bobcats lost 20-10 at Pitt on Aug 7 and then last Saturday, fell just short in a 33-31 loss at Marshall. That Pitt loss hardly looks so bad now (ask No. 13 Penn St about the Panthers) and remember, Marshall lost by just SEVEN points at Boise St the week before. Ohio QB Nathan Rourke was spectacular at Marshall, passing for 215 yards with three TDs and zero INTs, while adding 118 rushing (on just nine carries) and a fourth TD.

As noted earlier, this is ULL's first true road game of 2019 and winning in Athens has not been easy for visiting teams, as of late. The Bobcats last lost a home game back on 10/7/17 (26-23 in OT to Central Michigan) and enter this contest on a 10-game winning streak at Peden Stadium. Want more? How about these two factoids. Ohio has averaged a WHOPPING 47.0 PPG during its home winning streak plus going back to the start of the 2017 season, checks in 8-2 ATS at home over FBS foes. Frank Solich has done a GREAT job at Ohio (NINE bowl appearances over the last 10 seasons) and many think this year's team could win its first MAC championship since 1968. The Bobcats really need a win here, as they get next weekend off, before playing their next EIGHT games against MAC foes, including FOUR weekday games in November. ULL is in the WRONG place at the WRONG time in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AFC South Game of the Month is on the Ten Titans at 1:00 ET.

The Jacksonville Jaguars welcome the Tennessee Titans to TIAA Bank Field for an AFC South showdown on Thursday night with the NFL Network carrying the game. It's hard to believe that it was only January of 2018 when the Jags led the Pats by 10 points with less than 10 minutes to go in the 4th quarter of the AFC championship game. We all know the Pats scored a pair of TDs in that 4th quarter to win 24-20 and in effect, the Jags have imploded since. Jacksonville did open the 2018 season 3-1 (including a home rout of the Pats) but the Jags would lose 10 of their final 10 games to end the season at 5-11. QB Blake Bortles was "shown the door" and the Jags signed Nick Foles to a big contract. He was hardly used during the preseason (Jags went 0-4) and then in the first quarter of Week 1, Noles suffered a broken clavicle.

The Titans are coming off three straight nine-win seasons. They shocked the Browns (SI's cover team) 43-13 at Cleveland in Week 1 but missed a great opportunity to open 2-0 by losing 19-17 at home to the Colts when their offense generated only 242 yards. Tennessee doesn’t have superstars but the Titans don’t have any glaring weaknesses. Only TWO teams surrendered fewer points per game than the Titans last season (18.9) and they ranked eighth in yards allowed. Offensively, a lot of the Titans success will come down to Mariota simply staying healthy. Tennessee made several moves in an effort to upgrade the protection around him, giving a $44 million contract to free agent left guard Rodger Saffold and drafting guard Nate Davis in the third round.The Titans have upgraded Mariota’s receiving corps, adding slot-option Adam Humphries, rookie wideout A.J. Brown and getting tight end Delanie Walker back from an ankle injury that sidelined him most of last season. RB Derrick Henry showed how dominant he can be by rushing for 585 yards and scoring seven TDs during the final four games.

Rookie QB Gardner Minshew took over for Foles vs KC and while he completed his first 13 passes and finished 22 of 25 for 275 yards with two TDs, both came after Jacksonville was down 37-13 in the 4th quarter. He performed admirably against the Texans in his first career start with 213 passing yards and a TD, as well as 56 yards rushing, but again, he could get the Jags into the end zone until driving them 68 yards in 14 plays during the game's final four minutes. I admire the Jags "going two and the win," but it failed. Tennessee's pass D ranks second in the NFL (182.5 YPG) and the team's 16.0 PPG allowed ranks 6th. Minshew and the struggling Jacksonville offense will have its work cut out.

Mariota has passed for a modest 402 yards but he has four TDPs and zero INTs in 52 attempts (112.8 QB rating). Rookie WR Brown is averaging 20.8 YPC on his six catches plus now-healthy TE Walker has nine catches and two TDs. RB Henry has 165 yards (4.9 YPC) and two TDs. The Titans have won each of the last four meetings with the Jags, holding them to just 10.3 PPG. With a visit to Atlanta coming up in Week 4, the Titans NEED this one. Expect them to get it.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* American Conference Crusher is on Houston at 8:00 ET.

The Houston Cougars and Tulane Green Wave meet Thursday in an American Athletic Conference game at Yulman Stadium in New Orleans. Houston has opened 1-2, losing at No. 4 Oklahoma on Sep 1 and at NRG Stadium last Friday to No. 20 Washington St. In between, the Cougars won 37-17 at home against Prairie View A&M. Thursday's game will be the FOURTH different stadium the team has played in over its first four games. Tulane is playing at home for the THIRD time in four weeks, opening with a 42-14 home win over FIU, losing at No. 10 Auburn 24-6 and then crushing Missouri St 58-6 at home last Saturday.

Houston's pass D was overwhelmed by Oklahoma's Hurts and Washington St's Gordon but Tulane QB Justin McMillan is completing a modest 55.2% for 424 yards (2 TDs / 2 INTs), while adding 154 yards rushing (3 TDs). FYI...Hurts and Gordon have completed almost 80% of their passes (21-2 TD-to-INT ratio) with Hurts rushing for 373 yards (9.8 YPC / 4 TDs). Houston QB King is not off to a great start but remember, he passed for 2,982 yards in 2018 (36-6 ratio) and added 674 yards rushing with 14 TDs. He's had a least one TD pass and one rush TD in each game this season, tying Tem Tebow's NCAA record of 14 straight games with at least one TD pass and one rush TD.

Let me note that Houston is 23-10 SU in AAC games since 2015, while Tulane has gone 10-22 in league games over the exact same time span.Houston has 'hung around' against two ranked teams, plus was plagued with costly penalties and noticeably wore down due to lack of depth in its 31-24 loss to Washington State last Friday. However, while getting better, Tulane is still a middle-of-pack AAC team. Meanwhile, Houston is a HIGHLY-PROFITABLE 13-1-1 ATS as an underdog since 2015. That's a 93% winning situation. Take the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the LA Rams at 4:25 ET.

It may be nearly nine months ago since the Saints were done in by one of the more controversial no-calls in NFL playoff history but it seems like "just yesterday" to New Orleans and its fans. The blatant pass interference on CB Nickell Robey-Coleman late in regulation was missed by referees and it is still being discussed. The non-call forced New Orleans to settle for a field goal and eventually, the Rams beat the Saints 26-23 in overtime in last year's NFC Championship Game. It sent the Rams, not the Saints, to the Super Bowl. The non-call also prompted the NFL to change its replay review rules in the off-season, although many Saints fans still haven't stopped complaining about it. The two teams square off in Week 2, with both coming off close Week 1 wins. Drew Brees passed for 370 yards and two TDs but needed to lead a last-gasp drive that led to the Saints' game-winning, 58-yard FG with 0:00 time left (30-28). The Rams jumped out to a 13-0 lead at Carolina last Sunday but needed to hang on for a 30-27 victory.

RB Alvin Kamara will be the Saints featured back in 2019 (with Ingram gone) and he ran for 97 yards and had 72 receiving yards in Week 1, giving every indication he's up to the task. Meanwhile, Michael Thomas was Brees' top target with 10 catches for 123 yards. Jared Goff wasn’t all that sharp in LA's 30-27 win at Carolina (23-39 186 yards with one TD and one iNT), after just signing a huge contract. However, some good news was Woods hauling in eight passes and Kupp catching seven balls. As for RB Todd Gurley, concerns about his apparently balky knee looked fairly unfounded in the Rams' opener, as he rushed for 97 yards (6.9 YPC) and looked dangerous. Teammate Brooks ran for 53 yards and scored two TDs.

I get the feeling "most" will be on the Saints in this one and the week-long line move seems to bear that out. However, the Rams averaged 37.3 PPG at home last season and one should NOT ignore the Saints' "close call" in Week 1, as it has become a pattern. Going back to the start of the 2014 season, the Saints enter this contest 2-9 SU and 1-10 ATS (that's 91% "go-against") in the first two games of the season these past five-plus years. Bet on it!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "signature" 36-Club Play is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET.

Both the Seattle Seahawks and Pittsburgh Steelers did not play well in Week 1 but at the least the Seahawks picked up a win.Seattle escaped with a 21-20 home win over teh Bengals, despite getting nearly doubled up in yardage (429-233) and allowing the Bengals to control the ball for nearly 36 minutes. Russell Wilson was 14-of-20 for 196 yards and two scores in the opener (no INTs) but Seattle was able to run for just 72 yards (2.9 YPG), after leading the NFL in rushing in 2018 at 160.0 YPG. The offense gained only 232 yards with 12 FDs. Seattle's defense allowed 429 yards (22 FDs), as Andy Dalton completed 68.7 percent for 418 yards with two TDs and zero INTs.

Seattle's "rough outing" was a 'walk in the park' compared to what Pittsburgh experienced last Sunday night in Foxborough. The Pats opened a 20-0 halftime lead and cruised to a 33-3 win. New England outgained Pittsburgh 465-308, as Brady passed for 341 yards and three TDs. Big Ben threw 47 times, completing 27 for 276 yards and never got the Steelers into the end zone. The Pittsburgh running game gained just 32 yards on 2.5 YPG.

Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger engaged in a high-octane shootout the last time they shared the field, with Wilson passing for 345 yards and five TDs in a 39-30 home win. Roethlisberger passed for 456 yards but just one score. However, that was back in 2015. Here's what matters in this Week 2 meeting in 2019. The Steelers are 8-1 SU after losses by at least 20 points during Roethlisberger's 15-plus years in the league, while the Seahawks have made a habit of starting slow the last four-plus seasons. Seattle is now 3-6 SU the first two weeks of the season since the start of 2015, while going 0-8-1 ATS. That's a 100% "go-against!" Pittsburgh puts last Sunday night's debacle behind it with a CONVINCING win!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Week is on Purdue at 7:30 ET.

Purdue led Nevada 24-7 at the half in Reno and extended its lead to 17 points again at 34-17, late in the third quarter. However, the Boilermakers never scored again and lost 34-31 (as 11-point road favorites), on a 56-yard FG as time expired by a walk-on freshman placekicker. The 'killer' was five turnovers and the Boilermakers knew they had to correct that right away. Purdue hosted Vanderbilt last Saturday and its lone turnover was an interception thrown by QB Elijah Sindelar. However, the junior could be forgiven, as he was named the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week after completing 34-of-52 passes for a career-high 509 yards and five touchdowns. Sindelar became the 18th player to surpass 3,000 passing yards at Purdue and although he suffered a concussion late in the fourth quarter, he practiced Wednesday and is expected to play.

TCU opened its 2019 season with a 39-7 win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff on Aug 31 and then had last week off. Gary Patterson has had some career at TCU, taking over full-time in 2001 and going to 16 bowls the last 18 seasons. Eleven times his teams have won double digits in a single season, including the 2010 team going 13-0 after a Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin (TCU ended as the nation's 2nd-ranked team). The Horned Frogs did go 11-3 in 2017 but in 2016 went 6-7 after a bowl loss and in 2019 went 7-6, after a bowl win.

The Horned Frogs played two QBs in their season-opening win and graduate transfer Alex Delton and freshman Max Duggan are expected to split snaps once again. The duo completed 26 of 45 for 284 yards (1 TD / 0 INTs) and the running game ran for 200 yards (5.6 YPC). However, the opponent WAS Arkansas-Pine Bluff. TCU averaged just 23.5 PPG, after a four-year run of averaging 33.6, 31.0, 42.1 and 46.5. The defense only returns five starters but Patterson rarely fields a poor defensive team.

Still, Sindelar has thrown for 932 yards with nine TDs in his first two games and has one of the nation's best WRs in Rondale Moore, who caught 114 passes last season for 12 TDs. He already has 24 catches and two TDs after two games. Purdue has a  HUGE edge at the QB position and with next week off (Big Ten play begins Sep 28), this is a "statement" game for Purdue's season. Take a note that in 2018, Purdue beat three ranked opponents at home ( #23 BC  30-13, 32 Ohio St 49-20 and #19 Iowa 38-360, for the first time since 1959. The small home dog 'barks' VERY 'loudly' in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Cy-Hawk Rivalry is on Iowa at 4:00 ET.

Iowa State struggled in its season opener at home against Northern Iowa on Aug 31, before winning 29-26 in triple-overtime. The Cyclones were off last weekend, getting an extra week to prepare for its biggest non-conference rival, Iowa.ISU was happy for the extra week off to make necessary adjustments after its lackluster debut. "It’s really good to have an opportunity to step back and say, Is what we’re doing the right thing? Where do we need to get better? What are the things that might help our offense or might help our defense?" offensive coordinator Tom Manning told the Ames Tribune. Iowa comes to Ames 2-0 and ranked 19th in the latest AP poll, after opening with home wins over Miami-Ohio (38-14) and Rutgers (30-0).

The Hawkeyes have hardly been tested so far by Mia-O and Rutgers but it's good news that QB Nate Stanley, who came into the season with high expectations (52-16 TD-to-INT ratio the last two years), is living up to the hype with 488 passing yards, six TDs and no interceptions through the first two games. It's true that Iowa's first two opponents were hardly ranked opponents but Kirk Ferentz-coached teams always play excellent defense. Iowa has opened by allowing 185.0 YPG (4th), 113.5 passing YPG (8th), 71.5 rushing YPG (16th) and 7.0 PPG (8th). The Cyclones managed to survive Northern Iowa in Week 1 thanks in large part to the connection between QB Brock Purdy (30-41 for 278 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs) and wide receiver Deshaunte Jones, who finished with career highs of 14 catches for 126 yards. Purdy took over as ISU's starting QB on Oct 13 and led the Cyclones to a 7-1 finish, before losing 28-26 to Washington St in the Alamo Bowl.

Having last weekend off is an advantage for ISU but Iowa's Kirk Ferentz has figured out this rivalry with FOUR straight wins. Iowa QB Stanley, a senior, is trying to go out 4-0 against the Cyclones, after coming in as a backup his freshman year (a 42-3 win) and starting this rivalry game the last two years in 13-3 and 44-41 wins. Iowa is off next weekend and then hosts Middle Tenn St on Sep 28.  A win here and the Hawkeyes should be 4-0 when it begins Big Ten play at Michigan on Oct 5. Bet on it!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Navy at 3:30 ET.

The 1-1 East Carolina Pirates and the 1-0 Navy Midshipmen meet an  AAC opener for both teams at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium on Saturday afternoon. The Pirates feel good after a 48-9 win over Gardner-Webb Saturday, as QB Holton Ahlers threw for 195 yards (1 TD / 1 INT) plus added 78 yards rushing with two TDs. RBs Pinnix (134 yards / 2 TDs) and Mauney (103 yards) each topped 100 yards but after all, the game was against Gardner-Webb. Navy was idle last weekend, after opening its season with a 45-9 romp over Holy Cross back on Aug 31. Navy rolled up 531 yards in that contest.

East Carolina entered this season off three consecutive 3-9 years and a win over Gardner Webb hardly means much. The Prates opened the season with a 34-6 loss at NC State, getting outgained 505-to-269 in yards. Ahlers threw for a modest 168 yards and ran for just 11 yards on 10 carries. Two RBs topped 100 yards vs Gardner-Webb but that duo accounted for just 20 yards on the ground in 13 carries! Navy may not be NC St but don't sell Ken Niumatalolo's team short.

He took over at Navy when Pauk Johnson moved on to Ga Tech and led the Midshipmen to NINE bowls in his first 10 seasons. The Middies "fell apart" in 2018, going 3-10. Actually, the team's 'fall' began in 2017, when Navy lost SIX of its last seven regular season games, after opening 5-0. I'm expecting a bounce-back season from Navy, which has a talented QB in Malcolm Perry and a group of RBs to make the team's option work. Yes, it was only Holy Cross but the Middies did roll up 428 yards on the ground while averaging 6.4 YPC.

Navy's been an excellent September team for the last four-plus seasons, as the team enters this contest 13-2 SU its last 15 September games. Granted, Navy will have to win by just over a TD to cover but East Carolina is 9-30-1 ATS in its last 40 conference games and 7-21 ATS in its last 28 road games. Zeroing in even closer, the Pirates are a woeful 3-12-1 ATS their last 16 as a road underdog, which is an 80%

My 10* Non-Conference ACC Showdown is on Wake Forest at 6:00 ET

Mack Brown had a great six-year run at North Carolina from 1992-1997. He led the Tar Heels to six straight bowls and had three, 10-win seasons. That was a springboard to take the job at Texas. He won nine games in each of his first three years but then won double digits in NINE consecutive season (2001-09). His 2004 team won the BCS national championship by ending USC's 34-game winning streak, 41-38. The 2009 team lost the BCS national championship game 37-21 to Alabama. Brown would coach the Longhorns for four more seasons but the 'Horns went just 30-21 and Brown resigned after the 2013 season. Brown was named head coach at North Carolina in November of 2018 after a 5-year absence from coaching and 21 years after he left UNC for Texas. The Tar Heels upset South Carolina in Charlotte 24-20 as a 12 1/2-point dog on Aug 31 and then, after watching a 17-3 first-quarter lead evaporate (UNC trailed 25-20 with about 4 1/2 minutes left), pulled it together and scored a TD and added a two-point conversion with 1:01 remaining for a 28-25 victory.

North Carolina plays its first true road game of 2019 this Saturday, when it visits Winston-Salem to take on ACC rival Wake Forest. Under the current ACC two-division, 14-team alignment, the Tar Heels and Demon Deacons are scheduled to play each other just once every SEVEN years. The schools wanted more and were allowed to play this year in what will be considered a "non-conference" contest (odd arrangement). Dave Clawson got his first FBS head coaching jog at Bowling Green in 2009 and in his fifth season (2013), his Falcons upset a 13-0 Northern Illinois team in the MAC championship game. He used that win to get the job at Wake and after going 3-9 in each of his first two years, he's led Wake to three straight bowl games, winning all THREE! Wake opened with a 38-35 home win over Utah St and then won 41-21 at Rice last Saturday.

Both teams have QBs off to excellent starts. North Carolina freshman Sam Howell has passed for four scores and 519 yards while directing four-quarter comebacks in each of his first two contests. He's the first-ever first true freshman to start a season at QB for North Carolina. Eight different receivers have caught at least one pass through two games plus RB Javonte Williams has added 178 rushing yards on 6.4 YPC. Wake's Jamie Newman, who won a quarterback battle in training camp after starting the final four games a season ago, has completed 74.3% for 713 yards (that total leads the ACC) with six TDs and not a single INT. The running game chips in 189.5 YPG (4.1 YPC).

Kudos to Brown for his team's fast start but the Tar Heels have played at Charlotte (hardly a neutral site against the Gamecocks) plus at home vs Miami. This true road game at Wake will be a big test, against an offense averaging  39.5 PPG on 546.0 YPG (12th), including 356.5 YPG through the air (11th). The Carolina hype is running high, as it's been said that the people at Chapel Hill haven't already turned their attention to Roy Williams' basketball team.Wake owns some explosive playmakers and it just may be time to start talking hoops in Chapel Hill after this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AFC West Game of the Month is on the Oak Raiders at 10:20 ET.

The Broncos went 5-11 & 6-10 under Van Joseph and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. The Raiders made it to the Super Bowl in 2002 (lost to Tampa Bay and Jon Gruden) but have since had just ONE winning season in the last 15. Ironically, Jon Gruden was hired away from the TV booth to resurrect the team last season but that hardly went well, as Oakland finished 4-12 The Raiders went 3-1 in the preseason but the month of August was dominated by disgruntled wide receiver Antonio Brown.

It appeared that the Raiders were going to suspend Brown before he delivered an emotional apology to teammates Friday, when the club changed course and said he would play Monday. However, Brown posted "release me" Saturday on Instagram and Oakland complied after an tumultuous training camp and a heated exchange with 1st-year GM Mike Mayock. The Raiders released Brown two days prior to tonight's season opener. To add "insult to injury," Brown immediately signed with the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots.

That's the back story. Here in 2019, the Broncos and Raiders are expected to battle for 3rd 7 4th-place in the division (Chiefs are the clear favorite with the Chargers a legitimate threat and strong wild card contender). Joe Flacco is Denver's latest starting QB and I have NO faith he's got much of anything left. He burst on the scene to lead the Ravens to the playoffs in each of his 1st five years and in 2012, led Baltimore to the championship. Flacco had a "Montana-like" postseason in 2012, passing for 1,140 yards in four wins with 11 TD & 0 INTs (117.2 QB rating). His timing was just right, as on March 4, 2013, he became the highest-paid QB in NFL history when he signed a six-year contract worth $120.6 million (that has long-since be surpassed). However, after posting a 54-26 record as a starter through his first five seasons Flacco was just 42-41 as a starter the L6 seasons. A hip injury during a Wk 9 loss in 2018 saw Flacco replaced by rookie Lamar Jackson, who led the Ravens to a 6-1 finish. In February 2019, the Ravens agreed to trade Flacco to the Denver Broncos in exchange for their 4th-round pick in the 2014 draft. BTW... Jackson threw for 324 yards & 5TD passes in Baltimore's 59-10 Week 1 win.

Without Brown, Tyrell Williams will likely emerge as the marquee WR for Oakland, as he makes his club debut after catching 153 passes and scoring 16 TDs over the last three seasons with the Chargers. Oakland selected running back Josh Jacobs with the 24th overall pick and hope the former Alabama star can improve a ground game that was 25th in the league in each of the last two seasons, while taking pressure off QB Derek Carr.The Raiders made protecting Carr a bigger priority this season after he was sacked a career-worst 51 times last year. Let's not be too quick to forget. Carr barely missed throwing for 4,000 yards in 2015 and 2016 (3,900-plus) and featured a 60-19 TD-to-INT ratio. Despite getting sacked 51 times in 2018, he threw for 4,049 yards with 19 TDs and just 10 INTs in 553 attempts!

You may read the following and get nervous. Denver owns the league's highest Week 1 winning percentage at .672 (39-19-1) and has won seven straight season openers, which is the NFL's longest active streak. Then again, how about this for some current trends?The Broncos are just 5-13 ATS during their past 18 away matchups and have failing to cover in EIGHT of their last 10 division games. Better yet, let's note that he home team has won the last SIX meetings in the series and Oakland comes in as a home dog! I love Carr over Flacco in this matchup.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the NE Pats at 8:20 ET.

The New England Patriots have won six world championships over the past 18 seasons behind future Hall of Famer Tom Brady (Belichick may deserve some credit here, as well) and will begin their bid for a FOURTH consecutive Super Bowl appearance (only team to have done that is the Bills) against the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night. The Patriots have won at least 10 games in 16 straight seasons, tying the San Francisco f49ers for the most in NFL history. The Steelers are a fitting Week 1 opponent for the Pats, as Pittsburgh is the only other franchise to win six Super Bowls and happens to be the last team to beat the Pats, winning 17-10 in Week 15 of last year at Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger begins his 16th NFL season, after throwing for 5,129 yards and 34 TDs last season. However, WR Antonio Brown, who surpassed 100 receptions and 1,200 yards in each of the last SIX seasons is now playing for Oakland (I think?) and Le'Veon Bell, arguably the NFL's most-versatile RB, is now playing for the Jets, after sitting out all of last year. The good news is that wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster showed he is capable of a No. 1 role by catching 111 passes and scoring seven times in 2018, while  James Conner stepped in for Bell and rushed for 973 yards and 12 scores while gathering in 55 receptions and a TD in 2018. 

Brady will surely miss Gronk but the 42-year-old showed few signs of slowing down in 2018, throwing for 4,355 yards and 29 touchdowns despite playing with a patchwork crew of WRs (that's not exactly new). Julian Edelman captured Most Valuable Player honors in Super Bowl LIII with 10 receptions for 141 yards plus RB Sony Michel rushed for 930 yards and six scores as a rookie, while backfield mate James White led the team with 87 catches. There have been naysayers recently with some of New England's defensive play but the unit held the Rams (32.9 PPG in the regular season) to just THREE points in the Super Bowl win.

The Steelers 17-10 win as 2 1/2-point home underdogs in Week 15 was the the team's first victory against New England since 2011. Brady has never lost to the Steelers at Gillette Stadium (5-0), as Big Ben’s only career win at Gillette Stadium came when Tom Brady was sidelined in 2008. Brady owns a 13-3 record in Week 1, completing nearly 70-percent of his passes while throwing for 34 TDs against just 10 interceptions. The Steelers were 6-0 as an underdog in 2018 but how does one ignore that the Pats enters this contest with a 39-16-2 ATS mark (71.0%) their last 57 home games. Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Sep Game of the Month is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET.

The Falcons and the Vikings square off in a Week 1 matchup at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minnesota.on Sunday afternoon.The Falcons ended a 12-game preseason losing streak on Aug 30 witha 31-12 win at Jacksonville (Jags finished 0-4). The Vikings lost their final preseason game but had won and covered their first three. That's nothing new, as Mike Zimmer is 19-6 SU and 14-7 ATS in preseason plays since taking over as Minnesota's head coach. Atlanta's Dan Quinn enters his fifth season as Atlanta's head coach but one wonders if he and his team will ever be able to overcome the devastating loss in the Super Bowl to the Pats following the 2016 season (blew a 28-3 lead!). Zimmer begins his sixth year at Minnesota (47-32-1 record). The Vikes' best season under Zimmer was in 2017 (13-3), when they lost the NFC championship game at Philly.

Atlanta’s offense hasn’t been able to replicate what it did in the 2016 season when Matt Ryan (4,944 yards / 38-7 ratio) was the NFL's MVP and led the Falcons to the Super Bowl (Falcons were the NFL's highest-scoring team at 33.8 PPG).The Falcons averaged just 22.1 PPG in 2017 and while they improved slightly last season (26.8), they finished 7-9. The Falcons’ defense was 27th in yards per play allowed amid serious injuries to some of the team’s most important players in 2018. In fact, the defense has ranked no better than 20th in three out of four years under head coach Dan Quinn.

In Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook, the Vikings have an excellent group of playmakers. The offensive line is expected to be much better than it was in 2018, when it had trouble giving Kirk Cousins much time in the pocket. Cousins' difficulties against good teams have been well-documented but I'm not sure the Falcons will be a "good team" in 2019. The Vikings went 8-1-1 SU last season against teams that finished the year with fewer than 10 wins and own an 18-2-1 record against such teams over the last two seasons.

Atlanta has covered the spread just ONCE in its last six games against Minnesota and checks in 4-12 ATS since 2017 on the regular season road (75% "go-against"). Minnesota is 36-16-1 ATS in its last 53 home games and Zimmer is 4-1 in season-openers plus checks in 9-3 ATS his last 12 September games.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on Texas at 7:00 ET.

2019's Week 1 saw just one top-25 matchup, as No. 16 Auburn pulled out a late 27-21 win over No. 11 Oregon in Arlington, Tx last Saturday night. The victory moved Auburn to the No. 10 spot in the new AP poll, while Oregon dropped to No. 16.. The two marquee matchups of Week 2 are No. 1 Clemson putting its 16-game winning streak on the line at home vs No. 12 Texas A7M and No. 6 LSU visiting No. 9 Texas. No one really expects A&M to upset Clemson, so in effect, the LSU/Texas game holds more drama and the winner will firmly establish itself as a top-10 team. LSU unveiled a new spread offense in its opener against Georgia Southern and rolled up 472 yards in a 55-3 rout. Texas did not face much of a challenge in its season opener either, easing past Louisiana Tech in Austin, 45-14.

LSU's senior QB Joe Burrow was 23-of-27 for 278 yards and five TDs last Saturday, as different players recorded at least one catch. Spreading the ball around is key to the team's new offensive system plus Burrow is trying to get the ball out quicker this season. So far, so good. He was not sacked in the opener. LSU always plays great defense and the out-manned Eagles were held to 98 total yards and just eight FDs. Texas QB Sam Ehlinger completed 28-of-38 passes for 276 yards and four touchdowns without an interception in the opener but LSU's secondary is one of the best in the country. Texas ran for 153 yards last week (5.1 YPC) but doing that again vs LSU's defensive front is HIGHLY unlikely. A concern for Texas is the Longhorns allowing 413 total yards against La Tech, including 340 through the air.

Ex-Saints aide Joe Brady had LSU's "new-look" passing game in mid-season form but should LSU really be favored hetr in Austin (and by about a TD!!)? The temperature in Austin likely will approach 100 degrees on Saturday and that opens the door for fatigue to play a role. Tom Herman has made quite a name for himself in his four years as a head coach in "big games."  He is 10-6 SU as an underdog and a MONEY-MAKING 13-2-1 ATS. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* LEGEND Play is on Tennessee at 7:00 ET.

Phillip Fulmer took over as Tennessee's head coach during the 1992 season for Johnny Majors. He would go on to coach 16 full season at Knoxville, winning 10 or more games NINE times, while taking the Vols to a bowl game in 15 of 17 years (includes 1992, when he took over for Majors). His 1998 team won the national championship with a 13-0 record. However, he was let go (allowed to resign) in 2008 and the Vols have not reached double digits in wins in ANY of the last 10 seasons (high-mark was nine wins in 2015 and 2016). Jeremy Pruitt's first season ended 5-7 and then he began Year 2 with what many are calling "the worst defeat in program history!" The Vols hosted a Georgia St team which came in after closing 2018 with SEVEN straight losses and as a 25-point underdog, beat the Vols 38-30. Tennessee QB Jarrett Guarantano admitted he was "disgusted" following the eight-point loss, which is even a little deceptive given that the Volunteers scored a last-second TD.

BYU comes to Knoxville off a NINTH straight "Holy War" loss to Utah. The Cougars fell 30-12,as three BYU turnovers led directly to three Utah scores. BYU enters 2019 playing its 10th consecutive season as an Independent. The Cougars bounced back from an 'ugly' 4-9 finish in 2017 (school's first losing season since 2004) to finish 7-6 in 2018, after a 49-18 rout of Western Michigan in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.Head coach Kalani Sitake enters his fourth season at BYU and the offense is led by sophomore QB Zach Wilson, who started the final seven games of 2018 (note: he was a perfect 18-for-18 for 307 yards with four TD passes in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl). Wilson rushed for 43 yards vs Utah, while achieving career highs in passing attempts (33) and completions (21). However, he threw for a modest 208 yards plus had two interceptions returned for TDs. BYU ran for only 92 yards and gained only 14 FDs. Defensively, BYU allowed 262 yards on the ground (5.5 YPC).

Technical trends surely don't favor the Vols, who are now 3-12 ATS over their last 15 home games. Meanwhile, BYU is 9-2 as a road dog since the beginning of 2016. However, I'm throwing out the tech trends here, as Tennessee had won 30 straight home games vs non-Power-5 conference schools prior to last week.QB Guarantano recorded the second 300-yard game of his career last Saturday finishing with 311 yards and a pair of TDs. Another postive was Tennessee committed just THREE penalties last week. It's just Week 2 but the Vols could be in a "Make or Break" seasonal mode in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Conference Game of the Month (ACC) is on Va Tech at 4:00 ET.

Florida State's 5-7 finish in 2018 was the school's worst since 1975 and its sub-500 season ended FSU's remarkable streak of 36 straight bowl appearances. That over-shadowed what happened in Blacksburg. Yes, Va Tech's 6-6 regular season record extended the school's bowl streak to 26 in a row (now the longest active streak) but the Hokies' 35-31 loss to Cincinnati in the Military Bowl gave the school its first losing season since 1992. Tech opened 4-2 but a four-game losing streak meant the Hokies needed to win their last two regular season games to make a bowl (see above for that result). Tech opens 2019 with a conference game on the road, as the Hokies travel to Chestnut Hill to take on Boston College. The Eagles beat Va Tech in Blacksburg 31-21 on Nov 2, giving them a 7-2 record and a top-25 ranking. However, BC lost its final three regular season games, before the school's bowl game against Boise St was cut short after one quarter by severe weather. BC has won exactly SEVEN games in FIVE of head coach Steve Addazio's six seasons, earning a bowl bid each time.

Ryan Willis took over early last season at QB and threw for 2,716 yards and 24 TDs with nine interceptions in 12 games. The senior is primed for a big year. WRs Damon Hazelton (51 catches / 802 yards / 8 TDs) and Tre Turner (26 catches / 535 yards / 4 TDs) will be his top targets, while junior TE Dalton Keene (28 catches) could have a breakout season. The rushing game will be RB by committee but Fuente had outstanding offenses at Memphis and this year's Va Tech team has all of the makings of a dynamic offense. Defensive Coordinator Bud Foster has been at Va Tech 'forever,' and after a succession of top-10 defenses for more than two decades, it's hard to NOT see a bounce-back from Tech's defense in 2019 (Tech allowed 31 PPG and almost 440 YPG in 2018). Note: 10 of 11 starters are back.

Junior RB Dillon missed roughly a month last year due to an ankle injury but he still finished with 1,108 yards and 10 TDs (he gained 1,589 yards with 14 TDs as a freshman). Junior QB Anthony Brown (2,121 passing yards, / 20 TDs) is back and he he'll and operate behind a solid Boston College OL. The BC defense returns just three starters from a unit which allowed 25.7 PPG and just over 400 YPG.

Boston College will undoubtedly be looking up at Clemson in the ACC Atlantic Division and probably Syracuse, as well. That means the Eagles will be fighting with FSU (greatly improved in 2019) and NC St for a third-place finish and a bowl berth. Meanwhile, the ACC's Coastal Division is wide-open and Va Tech is as good a pick as any to win it. The Hokies had beaten the Eagles in three straight before last year's game, winning by an average of 26 points. However, after the Hokies led 14-7 at the half last season, BC scored 24 unanswered points in an eventual 31-21 victory. Va Tech has won 23-10 and 26-10 in in last two visits to BC. That sounds about right, here. Revenge works!

Good luck...Larry

My NCAAF 10* August Game of the Month is on Florida St at 7:00 ET (note: game has been moved from Jacksonville to Tallahassee).

The Boise St Broncos went 10-3 in 2018 (bowl game vs BC was cancelled due to inclement weather) but the Broncos reached double digits in wins for the 16th time in the L20 years. The beat should go on at Boise this season, as the Broncos look to secure their 18th straight bowl berth. The Broncos open their 2019 season with a trip to Tallahassee(game moved from Jacksonville due to weather issues) where they will take on the Florida State Seminoles. Willie Taggart's 1st season in Tallahassee was an unqualified 'disaster,' as FSU's 5-7 finish was the school's worst s/1975. More notably, its bowl streak of 36 straight appearances came to an end. The Seminoles losing record was no fluke, as FSU lost FIVE games by 21 points or more, including a 59-10 loss to Clemson.

There is little doubt that Boise will again be "bowl-bound," as unlike in 2018 when the Broncos faced FOUR ranked teams, they may not face ANY in 2019. However, there are a ton of questions on the offensive side of the ball for Boise heading into 2019. 4-year starter Brett Rypien has finally graduated and left as the MWC’s all-time leading passer with 13,578 yards. The successor remained up in the air into fall camp, as five candidates who had attempted just 10 passes between them were competing in the spring. Hank Bachmeier has been hailed as one of the best recruits in Boise State history and just recently, head coach Bryan Harsin said Bachmeier will be the Broncos’ starting QB for their 2019 season opener. “Hank earned it,” Harsin said. “It wasn’t given to him. ... He made throws, he completed passes, he did things in the pocket and he made decisions out there that we want to see. And whether a freshman, senior, doesn’t matter, those are the things that we’re looking for at that position.” That said, Boise St lost its top-2 WRs from 2018 and early NFL draftee RB Alex Mattison (1,415 YR, 17 TDs) leaves a 'hole' in the backfield. No returning RB gained as much as 200 yards in 2018 (Harsin has talked about a "RB by committee"option) so Boise’s string of 10 straight years with a 1000-yard rusher might come to end.

FSU had QB questions coming into this season as well, but head coach Willie Taggart made the announcement last Sunday that James Blackman has won the starting job. Blackman beat out Wisconsin graduate transfer Alex Hornibrook and Louisville transfer Jordan Travis. Blackman has started 13 games, including 12 as a true freshman in 2017. He has thrown for 2,740 yards, 24 TDs & 12 INTs at FSU. In his only 2018 start, Blackman threw for 421 yards, four TDs and one interception in a 47-28 road loss to NC State. Taggert’s offense will have a different look this year with new O.C. Kendall Briles running the show. Briles’ features a fast-paced but simplified attack and expect Blackman to utilize an up-tempo attack, looking to keep the Broncos defense on its heels. Speaking of defense, EIGHT of FSU's top-10 tacklers are back and the unit has pledged to but last season's collapse (allowed 42.0 PPG its last five) in "the rear-view mirror."

I'm predicting a big "bounce-back" season for Taggert and FSU, as the Seminoles are loaded and athletic across the board. I expect the Boise D to be "on its heels," struggling in the heat and humidity of a "Hot August Night" in Florida (something the boys from Idaho can't simulate in practice). Yes, QB Hank Bachmeier is highly-touted but expect the true freshman to be in for a 'LONG' night against a highly-motivated and athletic FSU defense. I'm calling a two-TD 'cover' from FSU!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Rivalry Game of the Month is on Utah at 10:15 ET.

You know it's a bitter rivalry when the schools involved can't even agree on when the first game was played. Utah claims a lead of 61–34–4, while BYU claims Utah leads 58–31–4, as BYU does not count the six games between Utah and Brigham Young Academy in its records (played prior to 1922). Either way, Utah has a large lead in the overall series and dominated the rivalry prior to 1972 by going 41–8–4. Then, BYU dominated the series with a record of 19–2 from 1972 to 1992. However, since 1993, Utah is 18-7, including EIGHT straight wins.

Despite some key late-season injuries in 2018, Utah finished atop the South standings (6-3) for the 1st time since entering the Pac-12 in 2011, before losing a hard-fought 10-3 defensive battle to Washington in the Pac-12 champ game. The Utes would then lose 31-20 to Northwestern in the Holiday bowl to finish 9-5. However, at the Pac-12 media gathering in July, the Utes garnered 33 of the 35 1st-place votes in the South & edged the North’s Oregon (11 votes) & Washington (nine) with 12 votes as the projected conference title game winner. BYU enters 2019 playing its 10th consecutive season as an Independent. The Cougars bounced back from an 'ugly' 4-9 finish in 2017 (school's 1st losing season since 2004) to finish 7-6 in 2018, after a 49-18 rout of Western Michigan in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.

QB Tyler Huntley and RB Zack Moss (an All-Pac 12 preseason choice) are both ready to go in 2019. They both missed LY's Pac-12 championship loss, as well as the Utes' bowl loss. Huntley is back after missing the L5 games of 2018 with a broken collarbone. When healthy, he is a dual threat at QB. As for Moss, he racked up 1,096 yards (6.1 YPC) & 11 TDs in just nine games, before a knee injury ended his season early. On the other side of the ball, Utah boasts one of the nation’s top DLs, led by Bradlee Anae, Leki Fotu and John Penisini. The talented secondary is led by preseason All-Pac 12 first-team selections Julian Blackmon and Jaylon Johnson.

Head coach Kalani Sitake enters his 4th season at BYU and the offense will be led by soph QB Zach Wilson, who started the final seven games of 2018 (note: he was a perfect 18-for-18 for 307 yards with four TDPs in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl). The team's rushing attack is a question mark, as LY's leading rusher Lopini Katoa ran for only 423 yards (5.6 YPC / 8 TDs). BYU played good defense last season, allowing a modest 21.4 PPG on 325.2 YPG and its strength this year will be a seconddary that returns CB Chris Wilcox plus safeties Dayan Ghanwoloku & Austin Lee (trio combined for 31 starts last season).

BYU blew a 27-7 lead with a minute left in the 3rd Q of LY's game, before suffering a painful 35-27 defeat in Salt Lake City. Revenge? With a visit to Tennessee up next and then back-to-back home games against USC and Washington, winning here will be even more important. That said, BYU has had played with revenge vs Utah for some time now, as Utah has won EIGHT straight in the series. Whittingham has quite a run at Utah since taking over for Urban Meyer after the 2004 season. He's led the Utes to 12 bowls the L14 years, winning 10. His teams have finished in the final AP poll FIVE times, including a No. 2 finish back in 2008, when the team capped a 13-0 season with a 31-17 Sugar Bowl win over Alabama. In 2014, 2015 & 2016, the Utes finished ranked after beginning the season unranked. This year's team may not be as special as the 2008 one (no way) but Utah is ranked 14th in the AP's preseason poll and it's well-deserved. Expect more 'pain' to come BYU's way in yet another "Holy War."

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Battle 4 Florida is on Miami-Fl at 7:00 ET.

The Gators fell apart under Jim McElwain, going 4-7 in 2017. To the rescue came Miss St head coach Dan Mullen, who had earlier served as Urban Meyer’s O.C. for two Florida national-title teams (2006 and 2008). Tim Tebow, flourished under Mullen, as did Miss St QBs Dak Prescott and Nick Fitzgerald. The Gators became relevant again in 2018, finishing 10-4 in 2018 after its 41-15 romp over Michigan in the Peach Bowl.

Mark Richt led Miami to a 9-4 record in his first season (2016). Much was expected of the 2017 team and Miami opened 9-0, including wins over then-No. 13 Va Tech (28-10) and then-No. 3 Notre Dame (41-8), to open November. Miami reached 10-0 with a win over UVa the following week and played its final regular season game at Pittsburgh, ranked No. 2 in the nation. The 'Canes lost 24-14 and then got crushed 38-3 by Clemson in the ACC title game. That Notre Dame win was supposed to be a watershed event but it instead became the apex of the Richt era. The 'Canes lost their final three games of the 2017 season (after that 10-0 start) and then went 7-6 in 2018, going 5-12 ATS over Richt's final 17 games as Miami's head coach. Manny Diaz was Miami's DC from 2016-18 and after Richt's retirement on December 30, 2018, Diaz was hired as head coach.

The “Mullen Magic” worked a year ago for Gator QB Feleipe Franks, who had disappointed for McElvain as a freshman in 2017. He had 24 TDPs and just six INTs, after a 9-8 ratio in 2017. He developed into a real SEC signal-caller last year under Mullen. The top-seven pass catchers return from 2018 and RB Lamical Perine needs 1,189 rushing yards to become the Gators’ first 3,000-yard career rusher since Earnest Graham at the end of the Steve Spurrier era. A worry could be replacing four multi-year starters along the OL. Retaining DC Todd Grantham was good news, as in wins against Florida State and Michigan to cap the 2018 season, the D forced five TOs, recorded 10 sacks, and held the Seminoles and Wolverines to a combined 7-for-30- on third downs. Seven starters return.

No one can blame Diaz' D for LY's 'collapse. Diaz is considered the mastermind behind the "Turnover Chain," a Cuban link chain with a charm in the shape of the school's iconic "U" logo. Despite the team's 7-6 record in 2018, Miami ranked No. 2 in total defense and ranked No. 1 in several other categories. In fact, Miami led the nation in “havoc rate” (total combined tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles, divided by total plays) a year ago. Offense, or the lack thereof, is what held back the "U" a year ago. Miami ranked 105th in total offense and an embarrassing 113th in passing, as neither senior Malik Rosier nor red-shirt freshman N’Kosi Perry provided anything remotely like consistency at the QB spot. In fact, the most important Diaz hire might be new OC Dan Enos, a former Michigan State QB and onetime HC at Central Michigan, who was most recently the QB coach for Nick Saban’s Alabama staff. It turns out that Jarren Williams, who was highly recruited but couldn’t get in a game last year (he did get in one, playing garbage time against cupcake Savannah State, going 1 for 3 for 17 yards), has beaten out Perry and highly-touted Ohio St transfer, Tate Martell.

Diaz has made a bold choice and Williams gets tested right away vs Florida in Orlando (Gators are ranked No. 8 in the preseason coaches' poll). Not many expected Florida to return to the top-10 as quickly as it did a year ago and I'm one who believes the Gators are rated too high this early. These two rivals used to play annually but haven’t faced off since 2013 (Miami won 21-16) and not in an opener since 1987, when the 'Canes won 31-4. I guess Orlando is "closer to home" for Florida than it is for Miami but I want the points with the MUCH better defensive team.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* signature 35-Club Play is on the NO Saints at 3:05 ET.

The Rams opened the 2018 season 8-0, finishing at 13-3 but after a 3-0 ATS start to the season, would go just 2-8-1 ATS before season-ending wins and covers over the hapless Cardinals and 49ers. The Saints opened the season with back-to-back home games (as 10-point favorites) against the Bucs and Browns. New Orleans lost outright to Tampa Bay in Week 1 and almost started 0-2, before eking out a 21-18 victory over Cleveland. However, that Week 2 win was the start of a 10-game winning streak in which the  Saints covered NINE in a row. A 13-10 loss at Dallas ended the streak in Week 13. The Saints then won three in a row, before sitting out their regulars in a Week 17 loss, to finish 13-3 (like the Rams). However, The Saints' 45-35 win over the Rams in Week 9 not only ended LA's eight-game winning streak to open the season but it earned the Saints the all-important tiebreaker, which in the end became the determining factor for allowing the Saints to host the Rams in this NFC championship game.

The Rams advanced to this game by rushing for 273 yards against Cowboys in a 30-22 win. Todd Gurley II, apparently beyond nagging injuries that limited his contributions (and kept him sidelined) in December, had 115 rushing yards and C.J. Anderson, a 1000-yard rusher in Denver last year, had 123. The team's ball-control offense gave cover to QB Goff, who threw for just 186 yards and zero TDs. I don't see the Rams being able to like that against the Saints (New Orleans ranks second in YPG allowed rushing at 80.2 per and held the Rams to 92 yards rushing in Week 9), so Goff will need to out-play Brees (not likely). Goff may have thrown 32 TD passes this season but he has only five TDPs in the last five games (including the postseason), with FOUR of them coming against the out-manned 49ers in the regular-season finale.

The Saints were rusty (regulars didn't play in Week 17) last week vs Philly and fell behind 14-0. However, Brees led te team back and the New Orleans D completely shut down Nick Foles and the Philly offense after teh first quarter. Philly gained 151 yards on their two first-quarter TD drives but were held to 99 yards the rest of the game! Remember when the Saints couldn't play defense? No more! Brees started slowly but wound up with 3-0101 yards and two TDs (one INT). New Orleans ran for 137 yards (4.4) and WR Thomas had 12 catches for 171 yards with one TD (note: he also had 12 catches in that Week 9 win over LA, setting a franchise-record 211 yards). As for teh running game, New Orleans ran for 137 yards (4.4 YPC).

The home-field edge MATTERS this time of year, as in each of the last five seasons, the team with home field advantage in both the NFC and AFC championship games advanced to the Super Bowl. The Saints have won their last seven home playoff games, with SIX coming under the watch of Brees and Payton. Enough said.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Playoff Game of the Year is on the LA Chargers at 1:05 ET.

I had a play on the Chargers last week, part of my perfect 4-0 Wildcard Weekend. In my analysis, I explained how I felt that the home field advantage in the Wildcard Round was much less important than in the Divisional Round. Philip Rivers and the Bolts would then go on to unequivocally prove that that was in fact true.

No one could benefit more from a week off from action than Patriots’ QB Tom Brady, who once again led his team to a division title.

Brady and the Pats continue to defy the odds and their story is well known.

Some would argue that the greatest QB to never win a SB is Dan Marino, but I submit that Rivers is at least in the discussion.

LA has the running game to keep opposing offenses honest this year with Gordon (885 yards / 5.1 YPC) and Ekeler (554 yards 5.2 YPC). It’s allowed Rivers to operate and once again put up huge numbers (4,308 yards / 32-12 ratio). This is also a “double revenge” scenario for Rivers, as Brady has gotten the better of him twice in the playoffs, 2007 in the divisional round and the conference title game in New England the following year (note: Chargers covered both games!).

Brady and the Patriots place in history is forever cemented, but there was something about this year’s Patriots which just didn’t “feel” the same as in season’s past (New England also benefitted from a very weak division). Brady had a 29-11 ratio but teh previous four seasons it was 32.23-6.5. Deep threat Josh Gordon was a bust and "Gronk" is no longer a major 'weapon.'

The Chargers 9-0 in games played outside of Los Angeles in 2018, a run that includes wins in Kansas City,Seattle and Pittsburgh. The LA defense has surrendered just 16.0 points per game the last three weeks (with eight takeaways in that span) and an AFC-low 16.9 PPG since the start of October.  Meanwhile, the Pats look vulnerable following a 4-3 stretch (3-4 ATS) to wrap up the regular season

Rivers is 0-7 lifetime vs Brady but this is his BEST-EVER (last-ever?) chance to exorcise his demons. The storyline finally shifts in favor of the Chargers and Rivers in this one. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* NFL Divisional Rd Las Vegas Insider is on the Dal Cowboys at 8:15 ET.

LA was one of the hottest teams all year, but injury and fatigue seemed to wear on the Rams down the stretch.

Dallas was in danger of missing the playoffs at one point, but QB Dak Prescott (3,885 yards / 22-8 ratio) benefited from the resurgent play of star RB Ezekiel Elliot, who finished with 1,434 yards rushing. The Cowboys enter the Divisional Round as arguably the hottest team in the entire league, at 8-1 SU (lone loss to equally hot Indy!)..

I’ve never been completely convinced of LA and its QB, Jared Goff. The offense is great, there’s no denying (32.9 PPG and 421.1 YPG both rank 2nd). However, if there is any issue at all with RB Todd Gurley’s mobility because of an end of season injury, then that’s a major “monkey wrench” in the entire chemistry in my opinion.

The Rams struggled defensively (24.0 PPG ranks 20th) and even with Ndamukong Suh and Aaron Donald on the DL, Los Angeles ranked last in the league in yards per rush allowed at a whopping 5.1 yards per carry. Elliott gained nearly the same per carry on first downs alone, so it figures that Dallas will want to play some smash-mouth football, which will be huge for Prescott, as the Cowboys love play-action.

Jerry Jones’ shrewd mid-season addition of big-play WR Amari Cooper now gives Prescott a viable vertical option to stretch the field as well (Coopoer has 53 catches in nine games with 6 TD catches).

Dallas is not just any defense. The Cowboys allow a modest 20.2 PPG (6th) on 329.7 YPG (7th). Dallas also allows only 94.6 YPG rushing (5th), on just 3.8 YPG. The Rams will have trouble running, putting even more pressure on Goff (he did not play well in his first postseason game last year, against the Falcons).

LA’s offense is very similar to that of New Orleans and Dallas beat the Saints 13-10 in Week 13, thanks in part to its strong run game. The Cowboys have the potential to take this one outright but a TD (or more) "in the bank" is a nice bonus.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the LA Chargers (1:05 EST).

The Chargers will need three road wins now to reach the Super Bowl. Likely not going to happen. Home field is obviously an advantage in the playoffs, but less so in the first round.

The teams which earn a bye have a clear advantage as they have extra time off to heal up and game-plan for the upcoming contest. 

But the Wildcard games, there are no breaks, and it’s just business as usual right after the regular season ends. So, I do indeed feel that this scenario is working in favor of the Chargers in this one.

Especially with a rookie QB under center for Baltimore. Lamar Jackson has been fantastic for Baltimore since taking over for an injured Joe Flacco, but in a playoff “one and one” situation like this, I’m giving Chargers’ veteran pivot Philip Rivers the clear nod in this matchup.

The Ravens have to be thrilled just to back in the playoffs after a three year absence. Baltimore barely held on for a 26-24 win over Cleveland in Week 17 to punch its ticket. 

Note that this is an IMMEDIATE “revenge” game as well, as Baltimore knocked off LA on the road 22-10 in Week 16, a setback which ruined the Chargers chances of top spot in the AFC West.

The Chargers bounced back with a win over the Broncos the following week and while RB Melvin Gordon is questionable, I still think the value lies with Rivers. He finished with 4,308 passing yards and 32 TDs. 

In the loss to the Ravens, the Chargers effectively shut-down Jackson, holding him to a season low 39 rushing yards. 

I think LA has more than enough firepower to take this game outright, but in the end I’m grabbing the points.

Play on the Chargers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10*LEGEND Play is on Ohio State at 5:00 ET.

Ohio St did not make the CFP's 'Final Four,' so Urban Meyer's last game as the Buckeyes' head coach will be the105th edition of the Rose Bowl from Pasadena, Ca. The year started with controversy for Meyer and the Ohio St program and Meyer announced that he would be stepping down as coach after the contest, primarily because of stress-related headaches stemming from a cyst on his brain. He leads the Buckeyes into this game with an 82-9 record which includes winning the 2014 national title during seven seasons at the school.

Washington opened the 2018 season ranked 6th in the AP's preseason poll but lost its first game, to then-No. 9 Auburn, 21-16.The Huskies would lose two more times before winning the Apple Cup game 28-15 at Washington St to clinch the Pac-12 North title on Nov 23rd. Washington then beat Utah 10-3 in the Pac-12 championship game on Dec 1, to clinch this Rose Bowl berth. The 10-3 Huskies are ranked 9th in both the AP poll and CFP standings. This marks the first time the Big Ten champion and Pac-12 champion have met in the Rose Bowl since the College Football Playoff began in 2014. Both schools are making their 15th Rose Bowl appearances but the schools have never previously met in Pasadena.

Senior QB Jake Browning is the school's all-time leader in career passing yardage (11,983) and TD passes (94) but he has battled consistency issues the last two seasons. He  had 47 TD passes and just nine INTs as a sophomore but followed with a 19-5 ratio as a junior, before falling to a 16-10 ratio this season. Senior RB Myles Gaskin is the program's all-time leader with 5,202 rushing yards and he's had no "drop-off issues," as his 1,147 rushing yards this season marked his fourth straight 1,000-yard campaign. The Washington offense averages a modest 26.6 PPG (86th) but its defense checks in allowing 15.5 PPG (6th) on 301.8 YPG (12th).

Ohio State wins games with a flashy offense behind sophomore QB Dwayne Haskins Jr. Haskins completed 70.2 percent of his passes in his first season as a starter, throwing for 4,580 yards with 47 TD passes and only eight INTs. Dobbins has 1,029 yards and Weber 858, as the Ohio St rushing game averages 175.9 YPG. Ohio St enters averaging 43.5 PPG (7th) on 548.9 YPG (2nd). However, the defense is a worry, as outside of Ohio State's 25-6 win at Michigan St, the Buckeyes D allowed 38.8 PPG in five of its last six games.

Bottom line is that there are strong fundamental, technical and psychological advantages for Ohio State. The Buckeyes own a very well-balanced offense and while Washington has an excellent D, no one has stopped Ohio St all season. Meanwhile, Ohio State's recent defensive woes should not be exposed by Washington's below-average offense, led by Browning, who has been in a two-year free-fall (hard to call it a slump,anymore). Technically, Washington was just 4-9 ATS this season and is only 1-7 SU in their last eight bowl games when facing Power-5 opponents. teams. SIX of those losses have come by seven points or more plus the Huskies are only 2-7 ATS their last nine playing outside the Pac-12. 

Moving to Urban Meyer, his teams have covered 10 of 13 bowl games dating to his days coaching Florida and Utah. Ohio State is 36-14-1 ATS when not laying seven or more points the last 12 years (line is hovering around that number and I was able to lay 6.5). Finally, there's a likely emotional edge with Meyer stepping down and the team must still be a little ticked off at being left out of the college championship playoff. Lay it!!

My 10* NCAAF Bowl Game of the Year is on Texas A&M at 7:30 ET.

 Monday night's Gator Bowl features the ACC's 9-3 NC State Wolfpack going up against the SEC's 8-4 Texas A&M Aggies. It will be the first-ever meeting between the two schools. NC State's Dave Doeren is taking his Wolfpack team to its fifth straight bowl (3-1 SU & ATS), including impressive wins the last two, a 41-17 romp over Vandy in the 2016 Independence Bowl and a 52-31 shootout win over Arizona State in 2017 Sun Bowl. Jimbo Fisher will get a chance to win his first bowl game with Texas A&M, after going 5-2 SU & 4-3 ATS in bowls at FSU (includes guiding Florida State to the National Championship in 2013 34-31 over Auburn).

NC State QB Ryan Finley led the ACC in passing with 3,789 yards, more than 1,000 more than the next-closest QB (he has 24 TD passes and just nine INTs). WRs Kelvin Harmon (81 catches /1,186 yards) and Jakobi Meyers (89 catches / 1,028 yards) became the first pair of teammates in school history to each go over 1,000 yards in the same season. However, the NC State running game offers little support, averaging 143.8 YPG (98th). Defensively, the Wolfpack are strong, allowing 22.7 PPG (37th) on 380.2 YPG (55th).

Florida St QB Kellen Mond is not as prolific as Finely (2,967 yards) but owns a similar TD/INT ratio (23-8). However, Mond is supported by an excellent running game (203.8 YPG ranks 33rd), led by Trayveon Williams(1,524 yards / 6.0 YPC / 15 TDs). On the defensive side of the ball, Texas A&M is allowing 26.3 PPG (58th) but the Aggies actually allow less yards than NC State (354.7 YPG to rank 34th, including only 92.0 YPG on the ground, 2nd-best in the nation).

NC State opened 5-0 to reach No. 16 in the AP poll but a 41-7 loss on Oct 20 at Clemson, began a stretch of THREE losses in four games. The Wolfpack rebounded to win their final three games, but those victories came against 2-10 Louisville, 2-9 North Carolina and 3-9 East Carolina. Fisher remade the Aggies into a more physical team in his first year on the job and few will forget A&M's 74-72, seven-overtime triumph over LSU in their regular-season finale. Expect Fisher's 1st A&M team to end 2018 in a BIG way!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Cleveland Browns (4:25 EST).

Baker Mayfield and the 7-7-1 Cleveland Browns are on a mission to close the season strong whether they make the playoffs or not. Cleveland already beat the Ravens in OT earlier this year.

Baltimore has everything to play for here, but Mayfield and company are out to play spoiler. In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab this healthy amount of points.

The Browns come in as arguably the hottest team in the league with victories in five of their last six. Mayfield has completed nearly 65 percent of his passes for 3,394 yards and a now decent 24/11 TD/INT. The ground game has been respectable, averaging 122.9 YPG, with Nick Chubb leading the way with 972 rushing yards and eight major rushing scores. Overall the Browns allow 24.4 PG and they’re led by Myles Garrett on that side of the ball with 12.5 sacks.

The Ravens have won five of six and if they win today they’ll clinch a playoff spot. Rookie QB Lamar Jackson has completed 58.2 percent of his passes for 1,022 yards and a 6/3 TD/INT. Overall Baltimore gets the job done on the defensive side of the ball where it concedes only 17.5 PPG. 

I’ll point out though that the Browns are a sharp 8-4 ATS as the underdog this year, while Baltimore is just 4-6 ATS as the favorite and only 3-4 ATS at home. 

While I wouldn’t be shocked by the outright upset, I’m going to grab the points. Play on the Browns.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the LA Chargers (4:25 EST).

No upsets here. I expect Philip Rivers and the 11-4 Chargers to put the foot on the gas from start to finish here as they look to finish up strong. 

LA had its four-game win streak snapped in a  22-10 loss to the Ravens last week. Rivers has been exceptional this season, going for 4,132 yards and 31/10 TD/INT. RB Melvin Gordon III had 843 rushing yards and ten TD’s. Overall the Bolts are averaging a whopping 27 PPG.

The Broncos have nothing to play for here and they come in dejected after three straight losses.

Most recently they fell 24-17 to lowly Oakland. QB Case Keenum has 3,598 passing yards, but a weak 17/14 TD/INT. 

Offense has been the main issue all year for Denver, which comes in averaging only 21.3 PPG. 

I’ll point out as well that LA is 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 on the road and 8-2 in its last ten vs. the division, while Denver is just 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 at home and only 2-7 ATS in its last nine divisional contests.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Chargers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Under the Radar Rout is on Nevada at 1:15 ET.

Arkansas State and Nevada were briefly conference-mates in the Big West Conference in the mid-90s and the two schools will meet for the first time since 1999 when they meet in the Arizona Bowl on Dec 29 at Arizona Stadium in Tucson, Az. This event is only in its fourth year but Nevada has fond memories after it won the inaugural Arizona Bowl over MWC rival Colorado State in 2015. The Wolf Pack return to the postseason for the first time since that game, after the program did a quick re-boot the past two seasons under head coach Jay Norvell. Arkansas State won five of its last six games (averaged 40.0 PPG in that span) with the lone loss coming against Louisiana 47-43, a defeat that cost the Red Wolves the West Division title and a spot in the Sun Belt championship game.

Arkansas State brings a four-game winning streak into this game. Senior QB Justice Hansen passed for 3,172 yards with 27 TDs, while being intercepted just SIX times (he was named the Sun Belt Player of the Year). The offense averages 464.8 YPG (20th) and 31.8 PPG (45th). Hansen ran for 399 yards, while adding six TDs. Defensively, Arkansas St allows 26.4 PPG (59th) on 376.8 YPG (48th).

Nevada QB Ty Gangi ranks 11th nationally in total offense (298.2 YPG) and completed 250-of-409 passes for 3,131 yards with 23 TDs and 11 INTs. He leads an offense averaging 32.3 PPG (40th) on 443.2 YPG (32nd). Nevada's defense owns similar numbers to Arkansas State's, allowing 28.1 PPG (71st) on 378.2 YPG (50th).

Red Wolves' QB Hansen does a few more things than Gangi, namely running. However, his TD pass total dropped from 37 to 27 this season. That said, Gangi has a more-accomplished group of WRs, led by McLane Mannix (17.5 YPC and 7 TDs) and Kaleb Fossum (68 catches). Arkansas State is in more familiar territory in the postseason, appearing in its eighth straight bowl but under head coach Blake Anderson, the Red Wolves have lost THREE of four. As for Nevada, it finished tied for second in the West Division of the MWC and had a four-game winning streak snapped in its regular-season finale by in-state rival UNLV, blowing a 23-0 first half lead in a 34-29 loss. Sure, the people in Reno are paying more attention these days to Nevada basketball (12-0 Wolf Pack are currently ranked  No. 6) but on Saturday, the football team takes center stage and gets the "W."

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play (1st of 2 this bowl season) is on Washington State at 9:00 ET.

The Iowa State and Washington State football programs have each been around for approximately 125 years, but they'll meet for the first time on Dec 28 in San Antonio at the Valero Alamo Bowl. The Cyclones opened 1-3 but they rallied behind freshman QB Brock Purdy. Purdy made his first career start Oct 13 in a game vs then-No. 6 West Va, with Iowa St winning, 30-14. He threw three TD passes against teh Mountaineers remained a steady force for the Cyclones in leading them to a 6-1 mark as a starter. Washington State was not just unranked in the preseason, the Cougars didn't even crack the "others receiving votes," list. However, graduate transfer QB Gardner Minshew turned in the most surprising performance of the season. He led the Cougars to a 10-1 record (No. 7 in the AP and No. 8 in the CFP rankings), before losing the Apple Cup 28-15 to Washington on Nov 23 (more on that later)..

One could make a strong case that this is the best Iowa State team in decades. The No. 25th-ranked Cyclones cracked the final regular season poll for the first time since 1976, and their third-place finish in the Big 12 is their best since 1978.  Head coach Matt Campbell shared the Big 12 Coach of the Year award. RB David Montgomery has run for for 1092 yards and 12 TDs. Frosh QB Brock Purdy took over at mid-season after an injury first to starter Kyle Kempt and then the abrupt departure of backup Zeb Noland, who intends to transfer. Purdy completed 66% of his passes for 1,935 yards with 16 TDs and just 5 INTs while playing in only 9 games. The defense is top-notch, allowing 22.5 PPG (35th) on 351.0 YPG (37th).

Speaking of defense (not typically associated with a Mike Leach team), the Cougars' stop unit is just as good. WSU allows 23.1 PPG (38th) on 345.9 YPG (29th). That said, Washington St has gotten here on teh arm of graduate transfer, QB Gardner Minshew,. During the first 11 games, teams just couldn’t slow him down. The former East Carolina QB led the FBS with 4,477 passing yards, completed 70.6% and had a 36-9 TD-INT ratio. In two seasons at ECU he was good (3,487 YP, 24 TD & 11 INT. in 17 games), but NOT this good! WSU's average of 38.3 PPG ranks 15th in the nation.

While I acknowledged that this may be Iowa State's best team in decades, I do NOT believe this year's Ctyclone team is in the class of the Cougars. The snowy conditions played a big role in Washington State's loss to Washington last month, as Minshew didn't throw a TD pass for the first time this season and was held to 152 passing yards after passing for at least 319 in every other game. The team's 237 total yards against the Huskies was its worst offensive output since 2013. 

Washington State was 10-1 and in the conversation for a potential berth in the College Football Playoff, before getting derailed by that snowstorm, getting shut down against rival Washington in the Apple Cup. However, Minshew won't have to deal with adverse weather conditions inside the Alamodome. What's more, the Cougars might have a pretty big chip on their shoulders after they were left out of a New Year's Six bowl, despite winning 10 games. Simply put, I believe Wash St is CLEARLY the better team, making this pointspread a 'cheap' lay!

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Miami-Fl at 5:15 ET.

We don't often see two schools playing each other in back-to-back bowl seasons but that's the case Thursday at Yankee Stadium, as Miami-Fl and Wisconsin square off in this year's Pinstripe Bowl. Wisconsin won last year's Orange Bowl 34-24, as QB Alex Hornibrook passed for four TDs and the Badgers' outgoing senior class earned a record 45th win. The departure of those seniors saw Wisconsin, which opened the season No. 4 in the AP's preseason poll, take a huge backwards step in 2018. Wisconsin enters this bowl 7-5 (Badgers finsihed 13-1 last year and ranked 7th in the final AP poll). Miami opened No. 8 in the 2018 AP preseason but lost its first game, 33-17 to LSU. Five consecutive wins followed but an Oct 13 loss at UVa ('Canes were ranked 16th at the time), began a four-game slide. However, at 5-5, Miami was able to end the season with impressive back-to-back wins, 38-14 at Va Tech and 24-3 at home against then-No. 24 Pittsburgh.

Miami’s offense struggled on and off, as QB Malik Rosier fell out of favor and the team went back and forth between he and redshirt freshman N’Kosi Perry. the duo combined for 2,096 yards with19 TDs and 10 INTs. Miami owns a veteran OL vet offensive line, leading the way fro a team which averages 197.3 YPG (42nd).  Seven Miami defensive players, led by A-A DE Gerald Willis III and MLB  Shaq Quarterman, were named to the all-ACC teams. Miami comes in allowing 18.2 PPG (15th) on just 268.1 YPG (2nd).

I have never been much of a fan of Hornibrook and he was hampered by injuries this season (concussion problems kept him out of three full games). Hornibrook’s interception percentage climbed, but he threw just 13 TD passes (11 INTs), compared with a 25-15 ratio last season. However, RB Jonathan Taylor has been terrific, becoming the fourth Badger to win the Doak Walker Award, given annually to the nation's top running back (he joined Ron Dayne in 1999, Montee Ball in 2012 and Melvin Gordon in 2014). He is almost certain to get the 11 rushing yards needed to hit the 2,000-yard barrier for the season as he is averaging a nation-best 165.8 yards rushing per game. The Badgers defense had its moments but was far from the same dominant unit of a year ago, surrendering 81 points total in the last two games while allowing Minnesota to rush for 201 yards in the season finale.

Yes, this is Wisconsin's 17th straight bowl appearance but this year's team is way off recent editions. I noted Wisconsin's fall-off on the defensive side of the ball earlier but will add here that this year's team allowed 24.2 PPG, its highest total in almost10 years. Miami comes into this game with some momentum, recording impressive wins at Virginia Tech and against Pittsburgh to garner this bowl bid.  Conversely, Wisconsin, which is just 3-9 ATS on the season, enters having lost FOUR of its last five against bowl-bound teams. Miami owns the better athletes and gets its revenge from LY's Orange Bowl.

Good luck...Larry

 My 10* Game Of The Year is on the Seattle Seahawks (8:20 EST).

Seattle desperately needs a win here to stay in the playoff hunt. At 8-4, the Hawks need to win this game to keep pace for the Wild card. But a date at home is just what the doctor ordered for the Hawks to accomplish that as they’ve won three straight in the Pacific Northwest.

This is a big game for the Chiefs as well as they’re still trying to lock up the top seed in the AFC. 

These teams are in fact very similar, led by a dynamic, play-making QB and strong running games on offense.

The Hawks however are much better defensively and I think this is going to play a major factor in the outcome of this one.

The Chiefs are led by QB Patrick Mahomes, who has 4,543 yards and a huge 45/11 TD/INT. The ground game averages 114.4 YPG. 

Defensively though Kansas City is allowing 27.1 PPG.

Hawks’ QB Russell Wilson has 3,025 passing yards and a 31/6 TD/INT. The ground game averages a whopping 154.9 YPG and the defense concedes just 20.9 PPG. 

Note as well that the Chiefs are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven off an upset loss as a home favorite, while Seattle is already 4-2 ATS as an underdog this season, 4-1 ATS at home and 4-1 ATS vs. teams with winning records.

The Hawks come in off a horrible OT loss to the 49ers and they’ll be eager to take out their frustrations in this “do or die” situation. The Chiefs are running out of gas and I believe their shoddy defensive play will finally expose them here in this difficult non-conference road venue.

Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* AFC Seeding Decider is on the Baltimore Ravens (8:20 EST).

Baltimore is 8-6 and desperate for a victory. Baltimore has won four of its last five games. The Ravens got the better of Tampa Bay last week and got 131 yards and a TD from rookie QB Lamar Jackson (he also rushed for 95 yards). 

The Chargers are 11-3, but after four straight victories, a letdown at some point does seem imminent. Most recently Philip Rivers had 313 yards and two TDs in a win over the Chiefs. 

LA though has struggled in this spot for bettors for a while, going just 3-7 ATS in its last ten following an ATS victory.

Baltimore on the other hand is a solid 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 on the road. 

The Chargers last three victories could have gone either way and I think LA’s “luck” runs out this week. That said, grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* CFB Game of the Week is on Troy at 7:00 ET.

10-3 Buffalo and 9-3 Troy each went 7-1 during their respective conference regular seasons. However, only Buffalo (MAC) played in a conference title game, as Troy lost a tie-breaker with Appalachian St in the Sun Belt East. In retrospect, Buffalo would have preferred to "stay home," as the Bulls led NIU 29-10 in the final minute of the third quarter, only to go on to lose, 30-29. The teams meet in this year's Dollar General Bowl, for the first time-ever.

There is no doubt that Buffalo has skill players on the offensive side of the ball (34.8 PPG ranks 26th in the nation). QB Tyree Jackson has thrown for 2,857 yards with 27 TDs and just INTs. His two favorite targets are Anthony Johnson(52 catches / 11 TDs) and K.J. Osborn (49 / 6 TDs). Last year’s leading rusher, Emmanuel Reed, was pushed aside this season by a pair of freshmen, Kevin Marks and Jaret Patterson, who combined for 1,751 rushing yards and 25 rush TDs this season. Buffalo’s offensive line, which was allowed just 12 sacks in 13 game. The "D" was good enough, allowing 24.7 PPG (49th) on 349.4 YPG (31st).

Troy averages a more modest 29.8 PPG but it concedes just 21.2 (23rd) on 345.6 YPG (28th). BJ Smith had 100 rushing yards in five out of his last eight games (set a school record with five consecutive 100-yard rushing games), finishing with 1,093 yards and 12 TDs. QB Sawyer Smith has been up and down since taking over for injured starter Kaleb Barker at mid-season. However, the Trojans have a stable of talented receivers that allowed both Barker and Smith to throw for over 1,000 yards, just the second time that has happened in school history.

Can anyone really trust Buffalo QB Jackson? The month of November was not kind tothe junior, as he broke the 200-yard barrier just once while the Bulls posted a 2-2 record. In comparison, over the first nine games, the MAC Offensive Player of the Year averaged 247 yards while throwing 23 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Those numbers dropped to 158 yards per game with four touchdowns and three interceptions in four games in November, which culminated with the Bulls allowing a 29-10 lead to slip away in the MAC championship game defeat. Buffalo is playing in just its third bowl game, having lost 49-24 to SD State in 2013 and 38-20 to UConn in 2009. You really want to trust a team from the MAC? MAC schools are just 2-15 in bowls since Christmas Day 2015!

This game is being played in Mobile, roughly three hours from the Troy campus. The Trojans have won bowls the last two years and will take an overall 30-8 record the last three season into this contest. Note that Troy will also take a three-game bowl winning streak into this game, while averaging 42.0 PPG.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* play is on USF at 8:00 ET.

Marshall and USF meet for the first time in Thursday's Gaspariila Bowl. 8-4 Marshall is a dominating 11-2 all-time in bowl games and enters having won its last six (HC Holliday is 5-0 SU & ATS). Meanwhile, USF's 7-5 record includes them opening the 2018 season 7-0 (garnering a ranking of 21 in the AP poll), then losing its last five regular season games.

The Herd may have won six straight bowls, but I think they’ll have their hands full with this hungry USF side.The Herd will have Tyler King and Brenden Knox in the backfield and they will present a formidable challenge for a Bulls' defense that allowed 39.6 PPG during its five-game slide. The Bulls rely on RB’s Jordan Cronkrite and Jonny Ford, who had nearly 1,800 combined yards rushing and 17 TDs between them. USF did not have No. 1 QB Blake Barnett in two of its last three games because of a shoulder injury and he may return. Chris Oladokun or Brett Kean would step in if Barnett can’t go.

Head coaches Doc Holliday (Marshall) and Charlie Strong (USF) coached alongside each other as Florida assistants and I believe Strong could REALLY use a win. Why can't he get that win, as he's playing at home. The Bulls are 21-6 SU at home the last four seasons.USF has a chance to erase its poor finish with a third straight bowl win and the school's SIXTH win in its last seven bowl appearances.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MNF GAME OF YEAR is on the New Orleans Saints (8:15 EST).

Carolina started the season 4-1, but it enters this one at 6-7. Unbelievably perhaps the Panthers still have a shot at the second Wild Card spot, with four other teams in the NFC sitting with an identical record. But after five straight losses, including a deflating 26-20 setback at Cleveland last weekend, I think Carolina is ripe for the picking.

The Saints are already assured a playoff spot, but they still have a lot to play for here as well as they look to lock down top spot in the NFC and the coveted first round bye and home field advantage. 

Last week New Orleans beat the Bucs 28-14, holding a fifth consecutive opponent to 17 or fewer points. 

Last week Panthers’ QB Cam Newton failed to throw a TD pass for the first time this year. Newton has been hit or miss this year, as while he does have nine TD passes during the five-game slide, he’s also been intercepted at least once in all five losses and he has eight picks overall. 

I’ll point out as well that New Orleans is already 7-3 ATS as a favorite this season and 3-1 ATS vs. the division, while Carolina is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 vs. the division (including 1-2 ATS this season) and only 1-3 ATS this year off an upset loss as a favorite.

With a chance to cement their lead and to end their rivals playoff chances, I look for the high-powered Saints to deliver the knock out blow.

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* SNF Magic is on the LA Rams (8:20 EST).

Philadelphia won’t have Carson Wentz under center and they come in off a deflating 29-23 OT loss to Dallas last weekend, all but assuring the final nail in the coffin as far as trying to repeat as Super Bowl champs. 

LA will be eager to get back on track here after a lacklustre 15-6 road loss at Soldier Field last weekend.

Philadelphia averages only 21.6 PPG and with Wentz out, I think that his backup will struggle to find chemistry right away. Nick Foles was superb during Philly’s big SB run, but there’s no question he’s being thrown to the wolves this weekend.

LA averages 32.7 PPG and it allows only 24.1. With a victory today the Rams will clinch first place in the NFC West and they’ll be well on their way to clinching a first round bye as well.

Additionally note that Philly is a poor 4-7 ATS in its last 11 as a road underdog, while the Rams are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games following a road loss in which they were held to six points or less.

This one has blow-out written all over it. Play on LA.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Green Bay Packers (1:00 EST).

The 5-7-1 Green Bay Packers invade Soldier Field looking to pull off an outright upset. While I do indeed feel it’s possible, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. 

Green Bay kept its slim wild card hopes alive with a convincing 34-20 win over Atlanta last weekend and there’s no reason not to think that Aaron Rodgers and company can’t keep that momentum rolling here in this “do or die” scenario. 

Rodgers has 3,700 yards passing and a ridiculous 23/1 TD/INT. Davante Adams has 1,196 receiving yards and 12 TDs. Overall the Packers are averaging 24.2 PPG.

The Bears enter off a very satisfying 15-6 win over the Rams in their last outing and I think they’re primed for a predictable letdown here. The pressure is now on the Bears to deliver the goods, as a victory will lock up the division. QB Mitch Trubisky has 2,579 passing yards and a ho-hum 21/12 TD/INT. Overall Chicago averages 19 PPG.

Additionally note that the Packers are 14-8 ATS in their last 22 after playing a home game, while Chicago is just 1-4 ATS in its last five off an upset win as a home dog. 

The Bears play with revenge, but the Packers are playing for their lives. In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m grabbing the points.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on MTSU 10* (9:00 EST).

MTSU is 8-5 and App State finished 10-2. Regardless of that, I think the Blue Raiders are going to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire in the New Orleans Bowl.

Appalachian State beat Louisiana in the Sun Belt Title game to earn this spot. QB Zac Thomas had 75 yards passing, 59 yards rushing and two TDs. 

MTSU fell to UAB in its conference championship game. QB Brent Stockstill had 362 yards passing with two TDs, while Zack Dobson posted 52 yards rushing. 

I’ll point out though that MTSU is 4-1 ATS In is last five following an ATS loss, while App State is only 2-6 ATS in its last eight following a two weeks or longer break between games. 

I think Stockstill is the difference and i look for the talented pivot to keep his underdog team in this one late. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry