My 9* is on Florida at 8:00 ET.

Did Florida's hopes at qualifying for the College Football Playoff 'die' with its shocking 37-34 upset at the hands of LSU in "The Swamp" last Saturday. Florida ran up 609 yards of total offense but offset that with three crucial turnovers, including a pick-six. As for Florida's defense, it gave up 418 yards to a team whose QB was making his first career start. Naturally, Marco Wilson's 'fateful toss' of opposing TE Kole Taylor's footwear 20 yards downfield to celebrate a third-down stop late last week drew ALL of the attention and while it was a "stupid play," there was plenty of blame to go around. While Florida was 'gagging' as a 24-point favorite, Alabama rolled to a 52-3 win at Arkansas, completing its season at 10-0. No. 1 Alabama (AP and CFP) is trying to secure a return to the College Football Playoff after missing out last season for the first time since the four-team postseason format began in 2014. The Crimson Tide may qualify even with a loss, since no other team in the SEC has fewer than two defeats. Florida likely squandered its chance to get into the playoff with a stunning setback to LSU last weekend, but the Gators are still in position to claim their first SEC title since 2008. This will be the 10th time the teams have met in the SEC championship game, with Alabama holding a 5-4 edge. However, the Crimson Tide have won the last SIX meetings against the Gators and Florida coach Dan Mullen is 0-9 in his career against Alabama's Nick Saban.

Alabama is an offensive juggernaut, averaging 49.5 PPG (3rd) on 537 YPG (5th). QB Mac Jones may (should?) be the Heisman favorite, as he's completed 76.4% of his passes for 3,321 yards with 27 TDs and just three INTs (QB rating of 203.9 ranks No. 1). RB Harris has 1,084 yards and 22 TDs), while WR Smith (83 catches with 15 TDs) is arguably the best WR in the nation. The Alabama defense looked 'shaky' in the early part of the season but over its last six games, has allowed just 8.8 PPG ('Bama has covered its last SEVEN games!).

Florida does not have RB to match Harris and while TE Pitts (11 TDs, despite missing significant time) and WR Toney (62 catches / 9 TDs) are both "big time' receivers, Florida's receiving corps can't quite match Alabama's group. However, QB Kyle Trask has had a season comparable to Jones, completing 70.2% for 3,717 yards with 40 TDs and just five INTs. He had THREE first-half TOs in the loss to LSU (including throwing that pick-six), so he's got MUCH to prove in this game. Florida's defense allows 26.3 PPG, which is fine when one's offense is averaging 41.2 PPG (8th), but can the Gators match the Tide score-for-score?

Maybe I'm 'spitting into the wind' with this pick but I just believe the Gators will bring their "A-game" to this contest off of last week's embarrassment. Will it be good enough to beat Alabama? I doubt it but it should be good enough for Florida bettors to 'CA$H!'

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Championship Game of the Month is on Boise St at 4:15 ET.

Boise St is 5-1 (5-0 in MWC) and is once again in the MWC championship game. The Broncos' FB dominance began back in 1999 (Big West), then moved to the  WAC from 2002-2010 and has continued in the MWC since 2011. Boise entered the 2020 season with an all-time winning percentage of .731, the highest in all of collegiate football. Waiting for the Broncos in Las Vegas is San Jose St, which is just two years removed from a 1-11 campaign. However, it's the 6-0 Spartans who enter this game as the ranked team at No. 25 in the AP poll (last time in the AP's top-25 was 2012) and at No. 24 in the CFP standings, are ranked for the very first time. The Spartans are 6-0 for the first time since 1939, when that team went unbeaten in 13 contests.

QB Hank Bachmeier had a solid freshman season in 2019 and despite missing TWO of the team's six games in 2020, enters completing 66.1% for 929 yards with six TDs and two INTs. Shakir is his top target (46 catches / 8 TDs) but Thomas is averaging 18.9 YPC on his 17 catches with two TDs. RB Van Buren leads with 356 yards rushing (8 TDs) and while the Broncos' ground game is averaging only 123.0 YPG (108th), Boise St has averaged 36.2 PPG (21st). That goes pretty good with a defense that's allowed 26.0 PPG (46th) on 352.7 YPG (33rd).

San Jose St QB Nick Starkel (previously played at Texas A&M and Arkansas) is completing 66.3% for 1,453 yards with 13 TDs and four INTs. His main targets are WRs Gaither (36 catches / 17.4 YPC / 4 TDs) and Walker (31 catches / 3 TDs) plus TE Deese has just 17 catches but 4 TDs. Tyler Nevers (454 yards on 8.9 YPC (5 TDs) leads a running game averaging 159.8 YPG on 5.0 YPC. San Jose St averages 30.3 PPG (49th) and its defense has been excellent, allowing 17.5 PPG (13th) on 355.7 YPG (34th).

Will San Jose St's 'Cinderella' season continue with a win here, as the Spartans play in their first-ever MWC title game? The program last had a winning record in 2012 and head coach Brian Brennan had an 8-29 mark with the Spartans before this season. In contrast, Boise State is trying to win its FOURTH Mountain West title game as the Broncos make their fourth-consecutive appearance in the game and fifth overall. You may have noticed that the ranked team (San Jose St) is about a TD underdog and could that be because Boise St takes a 14-game conference winning streak into Saturday's game? Then again, maybe it's because the Broncos have won each of the 14 all-time meetings between the two schools (SIX of the wins have come by at least 35 points!)? Series history and Boise St's FB dominance the two decades counts for something. Lay the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Rivalry Game of the Week is on Army at 3:00 ET.

The Air Force Falcons and Army Black Knights meet Saturday at Michie Stadium. Air Force trounced Navy 40-7 way back on Oct 3, while Army beat Navy 15-0 just this past Saturday. That means the winner will receive the coveted Commander-in-Chief's Trophy (established in 1972). Air Force has won the trophy 20 times, Navy 16 and Army just eight (four shared years, with Navy retaining the trophy three times and Air Force once). Air Force's Troy Calhoun is completing his 14th season in 2020 at Colorado Springs, after replacing Fisher DeBerry who retired after 23 years as the Falcons' head coach. He has led the Falcons to 10 bowl appearances in 13 years, including an 11-2 season in 2019, after back-to-back 5-7 seasons in 2017 and 2019. Jeff Monken took over the Army football program in 2014 and after 4-8 and 2-10 seasons, led the Blacks Knights to seasons of 8-5, 10-3 and 11-2 from 2016 through 2018. Each of the seasons were capped by a bowl win The 2017 team tied the school record for most wins in a season when it beat SD State in the Armed Forces Bowl and then the 2018 team broke the school record for wins when it CRUSHED Houston 70-14 in the same bowl the following year. Maybe more importantly, Army beat Navy THREE straight in that span, while capturing the school's first Commander-in-Chief's Trophy since 1996 in 2016, then following up by winning that trophy again in both 2017 and 2018.

COVID has allowed Air Force to play just FIVE games in 2020 with the Falcons playing just TWICE since Oct 31. They won 28-0 at home over New Mexico on Nov 20 and 35-7 at Utah St on Dec 3 (New Mexico is a 2-5 team and Utah St a 1-5 one). Air Force is second in the nation with 336.0 YPG on the ground, averaging 5.9 YPC. Its defense has held opponents to 16.0 PPG (8th) on 307.4 YPG (8th). Army has rebounded off a poor 2019 (5-8) to go 8-2 and now plays its 11th game in this "Year of COVID," losing just ONE game of its 12-game schedule to the virus. Army rushes for 280.1 YPG (4th) on 4.8 YPC plus its defense has played even better than Air Force's, allowing 14.7 PPG (4th) on 272.1 YPG (3rd).

Air Force has won SEVEN of the last 10 meetings against Army, but this season has had issues playing a consistent schedule and its three wins have come against teams with a combined 6-17 record. Army is 6-1 straight up since October and has held THREE of its last six opponents to single digit points, while pitching two 'shutouts' this season. What's more, since the beginning of 2017, Army is 23-2 SU in its 25 game at Michie Stadium. Note that BOTH losses came during 2019's 5-8 campaign. Army is 7-0 SU at home in 2020. I'll take ANY point available. Go Army! Beat Air Force!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Pac-12 Championship Game play is on USC at 8:00 ET.

When the pandemic-delayed Pac-12 Conference football season started, Oregon (AP preseason No. 9) and USC (AP preseason No. 17) were the favorites to reach the title game. Both schools were only able to play five games but while USC went 5-0 (with THREE "close calls''), Oregon finished 3-2, second in the Pac-12's North Division behind Washington (3-1). The Ducks were scheduled to play Washing at home on Dec 12 but a COVID-19 spike in the Huskies' program caused Washington to cancel that game. That left Oregon 'out in the cold,' with the Huskies set to play the Trojans on Friday night. However, the COVID situation in Seattle did NOT improve, so lo and behold, the Ducks will replace the Huskies in the championship game. What a year it's been.

This is Mario Cristobal's third season at Oregon, having led the Ducks to back-to-back bowls while going 9-4 and 12-2. Despite losing QB Herbert to the NFL, the Ducks' current QB Tyler Shough has been more than an adequate replacement, passing for 1,389 yards (277.8 YPG) with 11 TDs and four INTs plus running for 256 yards on 4.9 YPC with five TDs. RB Dye has a team-high 336 yards on 7.5 YPC plus his five receptions have averaged 40.8 YPC with three TDs. A trio of WRs have combined for 47 TDs. Oregon has a nice balance on offense, passing for 277.8 YPG and running for 189.2 YPG, while averaging 34.2 PPG. Defensively, the Ducks are allowing 28.0 PPG.

USC was once known by the nickname of "Tailback U" but no longer. This year's team is averaging a pathetic 109.2 YPG on the ground (3.5 YPC, which ranks 115th in the nation. QB Kedon Slovis has been the team-MVP, completing 70.3% while averaging 320.2. YPG through the air (1,601 yards in five games) with 15 TDs and just four INTs. He leads an offense averaging 35.2 PPG (23rd) and the defense has been sound, allowing 25.0 PPG (41st) on 395.0 YPG (56th). 

The Trojans had to rally and were lucky to beat the two Arizona schools to open the season, then beat Utah 33-17 and Washington St, 38-13. However, the "comeback kids" needed to work their 'magic' again last Saturday vs UCLA, rallying from an 18-point deficit to win 43-38. The Ducks opened the season 3-0 (ranked No. 15) but then dropped their last two games on the road; 41-38 to Oregon State and 21-17 to previously winless California. Oregon was No. 23 in the College Football Playoff rankings before its latest loss.

Here's the bottom line. One could argue that Oregon's been given a "second chance" and will make the most of it but I'm siding with the position that USC's Slovis has time and again, "come through in the clutch." How about five TD passes (four in the second half after USC fell behind 28-10) in the UCLA comeback? USC is 7-1 at home since the start of the 2019 season, losing only to Oregon last season (56-24!). Methinks the Trojans will remember that result and the price on this game on their home field gives them a GREAT chance to win and cover the modest impost. "Fight On!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on Marshall at 7:00 ET.

UAB is back in the C-USA championship game for the THIRD straight year, becoming the first C-USA program to accomplish such a feat. The Blazers won 27-25 at MTSU in 2018 and then lost last year at FAU, 49-6. UAB will again be the road team in 2020, as it travels to Huntington, West Va to take on Marshall's Thundering Herd. The Blazers are 5-3 on the season, with their 3-1 conference record being good enough to win the West. UAB lost 37-34 (2 OTs) at La Tech on Oct 31 but didn't play again until its 21-16 win at Rice on Dec 12, clinching the school's third straight division title. Marshall knows MORE than a little about Rice, as the Thundering Herd (which also saw games canceled due to COVID issues) was 7-0 when it hosted Rice on Dec 5 and shockingly lost 20-0 as a 24 1/2-point favorite. Marshall won the East with a 4-1 conference mark. Marshall has played in two previous C-USA title games, losing to Rice (there's that team again!) in 2013 but winning the following season against La Tech.

Tyler Johnson began the season as UAB's starting QB but after two games, suffered an injury to his non-throwing shoulder that kept him out indefinitely. He was replaced by Lucerno who was not very effective, completing just 54.1 percent with seven TDs and eight INTs. Johnson played in UAB's Oct 31 loss to La Tech and then started in the 21-16 win at Rice, completing 9 of 18 for two TDs and zero INTs plus ran for 41 yards. He was UAB's leading rusher in that game, because RB Spencer Brown (740 yards on 4.7 YPC with 10 TDs) did not play. His status is questionable for this one. UAB averages 29.3 PPG but its defense has led the way all season, allowing 22.5 PPG (33rd) on 318.9 YPG (145).

However, when one speaks of defense, Marshall is right on the tip of everyone's tongue. The Marshall defense has been special, as it has yet to allow more than 20 points in a game. The stunning 20-0 loss to Rice a few weeks ago was the first time all season the defense allowed more than 17 points. The team's "stop unit" does just that, ranking second in the nation against the run (73.0 YPG), second in total defense (253.9 YPG) and No. 1 in scoring D (11.4 PPG). RB Brenden Knox ran for 1,397 yards and 11 TDs in 2019 (13 games) and in eight games so far in 2020, has 820 yards on 4.9 YPC with 9 TDs. Freshman QB Grant Wells is the franchise guy to build around. He entered the game with Rice  averaging 279 YPG passing with 16 TDs and just four INTs in 192 attempts. However, he 'blew up' against the Owls, getting intercepted FIVE times while throwing for just 165 yards.

Oftentimes when teams get off to long winning streaks to open a season and finally lose, they DON'T bounce back like many expect them to. However, this is different, as Marshall has had two weeks to 'stew' over its loss plus is at HOME with an opportunity to win its first C-USA title since 2014 and head to its bowl with a chance to finish this pandemic-riddled season at 9-1. That would be quite an accomplishment.

Marshall was 11-1 SU at home heading to the Rice game since the start of 2019 and while UAB has been a great home to since 2018 in going 21-1 SU, the Blazers are just 9-13 SU on the road in that same span. The point spread is more than fair (and manageable) for the homestanding Herd, who 'Thunder' to a double digit win.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Thursday Game of the Year is on the LV Raiders at 8:20 ET.

The Raiders have allowed 200-plus rushing yards in their last two games but were able to split the two games, escaping with a 'miracle' win at the Jets in Week 13 but getting 'run over' 44-27 by the Colts last Sunday at home. The Raiders are now 7-6 and currently or on the outside looking in as the ninth seed in a crowded seven-team AFC playoff race. A loss here in Thursday night's home game with the 4-9 Los Angeles Chargers is as the saying goes, "NOT an option!"

The Chargers have found a franchise QB in  Justin Herbert (66.3% for 3,467 yards with 25 TDs and 10 INTs in his rookie season) but the team has found a myriad of ways to blow big leads. Despite Herbert and WR Allen's (99 catches / 8 TDs) excellent seasons, the offense is averaging a modest 22.8 PPG (22nd), while the defense allows 27.8 PPG (26th).

QB Derek Carr is "on pace" for the best season of his career (68.2% for 3,343 yards with 24 TDs and 7 INTs / QB rating of 102.1), supported by RB Jacobs (831 yards and 9 TDs) plus TE Waller (84 catches / 7 TDs). Las Vegas' offense is scoring a bit more than LA's at 26.9 PPG but its defense has struggled most of the season (30.1 PPG ranks 30th!).

These teams met back in LA on Nov 8 (Week 9) and in that one, it looked like the Chargers had won on a 4-yard TD pass on the final play of the game. However, the score was eventually overturned when a replay review showed the ball hit the ground as the receiver came down on the sideline chalk before establishing full control (Las Vegas won, 31-26). That Week 9 win gave the Raiders THREE straight victories over the Chargers. The Chargers are coming off a 20-17 victory over Atlanta on Sunday, hitting a 43-yard field goal as time expired for the winning points. Herbert produced the first game-winning, fourth-quarter drive of his career. 

However, considering that the Chargers haven't won back-to-back games all season, I want NO part of them here. As noted above, the Raiders are in a "must-win" situation, as their game next week with the Dolphins won't mean much if they lose here. Las Vegas was a one-point favorite in LA, meaning the Raiders should be a much bigger favorite than they are here at home. Here's some stats to 'chew on!' The Raiders are 8-2 ATS since the start of last season vs AFC West foes, while the Chargers are 1-7-1 ATS over the same time frame vs division opponents. That's a pretty sweet 'daily double' in favor of the Raiders!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AFC North Game of the Year (MNF Magic) is on the Bal Ravens at 8:15 ET.

The Cleveland Browns are looking to end a 17-season playoff drought after taking a big step in the right direction with last Sunday's 41-35 win at the Tennessee Titans, a team that played in last season's AFC title game. The 9-3 Browns welcome the hated-Baltimore Ravens to Cleveland on Monday night, a team that got a much-needed 34-17 win last Tuesday at home over the Cowboys. Baltimore opened the season 5-1 but had lost FOUR of its last five prior to the win over Dallas, dealing with inconsistent play and severe COVID-19 issues. Cleveland currently owns the No. 5 seed in the AFC, while Baltimore is 7-5 and out of the playoffs at the moment. However, a Baltimore win moves them into a tie with 8-5 Miami for the No. 7 seed (final playoff spot) plus would put them just ONE game back of the 9-4 Browns and Titans.

QB Lamar Jackson was activated off the reserve/COVID-19 list a day before the game with Dallas and looked fresh, despite passing for just 107 yards. He rushed for 94 yards as the Ravens dominated the trenches by racking up 294 on the ground. Jackson won't come close to last season's MVP numbers (3,127 passing yards with 36 TDs and 6 INTs / 1,206 rushing yards with 7 TDs) but he does have a solid 17-7 TD/INT ratio and leads Baltimore in rushing with 669 yards 5.8 YPC (4 TDs). Baltimore averaged an NFL-record 206.0 YPG (5.5 YPC) last season and again leads with 169.0 YPC on 5.2 YPC. Mark Ingram joined Jackson with more than 1,000 yards rushing last year but has just 260 yards in 2020. However, Edwards has 487 yards (4.8 YPC / 7 TDs) and rookie Dobbins 451 yards (5.4 YPC / 4 TDs). Baltimore's D allowed 17.6 PPG (2nd) on 300.6 YPG (4th) and this t0year's unit is not far off those numbers, allowing 19.3 PPG (4th) on 337.7 YPG (10th).

Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield passed for four TDs and a season-high 334 yards against the Titans last week, with all of his TDs coming in the first half. Mayfield also threw four of his five TDs in the second half of a win against Cincinnati back on Oct 25. No other QB has matched that in the NFL in 2020. However, note that Mayfield had thrown just two TD passes over his previous four games. His season high prior to last Sunday was just 297 yards. He's barely averaging over 200 YPG passing in 2020, although he's greatly improved his TD/INT ratio to 21-7, after last year's 22-21 mark (his QB rating is 97.9, up from 73.8 in 2019). Cleveland's two-RB attack is just behind Baltimore, ranking second in the NFL by averaging 157.8 YPG on the ground (4.9 YPC). Chubb has 799 yards (6.0 YPC / 7 TDs) and Hunt has 739 yards (4.3 YPC / 4 TDs). However, Cleveland's defense is allowing a worrisome 26.8 PPG (24th).

Cleveland's win over Tennessee was just its SECOND over a team with a current winning record (also beat the 9-4 Colts 32-23 back in Week 7). The Browns' other seven wins have come over Ciny (twice), Washington, Dallas, Houston, Jacksonville and Philadelphia. Just for the record, those seven own a combined record of 21-55-2 (.282). There is NO doubt that Cleveland's first-year head coach Kevin Stefanski has established a different culture but I still don't trust them vs Baltimore, which CRUSHED them in Week 1 by the score of 38-6! That's not exactly news, as since John Harbaugh was named Baltimore's head coach prior to the 2008 season, the Ravens had won 20 of the 24 meetings from through 2019, including a 10-2 mark in Cleveland. Having made it 21 wins in the last 25 games with that Week 1 win, the Ravens now go for a NINTH season-sweep of the series. BTW, Lamar Jackson passed for 275 yards and three TDs and added 45 yards on the ground in that Week 1. Deja vu? 

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the Buf Bills at 8:20 ET.

The Pittsburgh Steelers visit Buffalo for a SNF game with the Bills and for the FIRST time in 2020, the Steelers are coming off a loss. Pittsburgh was upset 23-17 by Washington last Monday and will head to Buffalo 11-1 and hoping to keep pace with (or move ahead of) the 11-1 Chiefs by beating Buffalo. That will be no easy chore, as the Bills are 9-3 after also playing last Monday but coming away with a 34-24 win over San Francisco in a game played in Glendale, Az (home of the Cardinals.

"Big Ben" has bounced back from missing all of last season with a strong season (66.9% for 3,105 yards with 27 TDs and 7 INTs). He's got an excellent trio of WRs in Smith-Schuster (73 catches / 6 TDs), Johnson (65 / 5 TDs) and rookie Claypool (47 / 8 TDs) plus TE Ebron has 49 catches with four TDs. However, Pittsburgh RBs have fought injuries all season and Pittsburgh enters the game averaging only 92.6 YPG on the ground (29th), averaging 3.7 YPC. The defense has been the 'star' of the 2020 season, allowing 17.6 PPG (1st) on 300.5 YPG (3rd).

That defense will be tested by Buffalo QB Josh Allen who is having a breakout year!  I say that even though he began the current season as just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. However, his 2020 season has been "pretty darn good!" THREE times this season he has thrown for at least 375 yards and three TDs, with a passer rating of at least 130. That includes Monday night, when he threw for 375 yards and four TDs with a 139.1 QB rating. He is the AFC Offensive Player of the Week for the THIRD time. His Y-T-D numbers have him completing 69.9% for 3,403 yards with 26 TDs and eight INTs (QB rating of 105.9). Buffalo's running game is much better than Pittsburgh's (107.4 YPG on 4.0 YPC) but the addition of WR Diggs has been HUGE. He leads the team with 90 catches (four TDs)., while fellow WR Beasley, who has averaged 59 catches per season the last five, has 66 through 12 games (on pace for 88).

After a long winning streak ends, many assume a "bounce-back" but just as often, that team suffers a let down. Pittsburgh's offense has averaged just 18.0 PPG its last two games an as noted above, I believe the Pittsburgh D will have its hands full with Josh Allen. Buffalo's trying to win the AFC East for the first time since 1995 and this contest is its LONE home game in a four-week span. NO "bounce-back" here for the Steelers!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Non Division Game of the Year is on the SF 49ers at 4:25 ET. 

Washington and San Francisco are both 5-7 but while Washington is tied for first in the NFC East, the NFC defending champion 49ers are mired in last-place in the NFC West. Washington began the season 1-5 but its shocking 23-17 win Monday against the previously unbeaten Steelers kept them in a tie with the Giants, who had pulled off quite an upset of their own last Sunday in winning 17-12 at Seattle as an 11-point underdog. Meanwhile, the 49ers made an uphill climb a good bit steeper with a 34-24 loss to the Buffalo Bills last Monday night in Glendale, Az. San Francisco will again 'host' Washington in Glendale on Sunday.

Washington's recent surge has coincided with QB Alex Smith's return from a near career-ending injury (actually, life-threatening). Smith's comeback is truly remarkable but he has just four TD passes and five INTs with a VERY poor QB rating of 83.8. In fact, Washington's defensive play has been the key, as Washington ranks eighth in points allowed (21.7 per) and 4th in total yards (310.9 YPG). That's because in the team's 3-0 SU and ATS run, Washington's D has allowed just 14.0 PPG on 281.7 YPG.

San Francisco has been riddled by injuries all season but ironically, the 49ers were healthier than they've been in a while for Monday's game with Buffalo. However, the San Francisco defense couldn't handle Buffalo QB Josh Allen who threw for 375 yards with four TDs (no INTs). Nick Mullens (still in for Jimmy G) threw for 316 yards and three TDs (but had two INTs). San Francisco's defense has not quite played up to the standards of last year's edition but the 49ers have allowed 24.0 PPG (13th) on 326.3 YPG (6th).

Kudos to Washington's recent play but the 49ers have WON five of their last six meetings with Washington and a closer look at Monday's loss to Buffalo reveals that San Francisco turned the ball over on downs at the Buffalo one-yard line plus Nick Mullens threw two interceptions, including one in the end zone. The 49ers are almost sure to miss the postseason but expect them to get the better of Washington in this one, "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Arz Cardinals at 1:00 ET.

Arizona, the LA Rams and Seattle were all 6-3 and tied atop the NFC West entering Week 11. However as Sunday Dec 13 dawns, the Rams are 9-4, Seattle 8-4 (and poised to join them at 9-4 with a home game against the Jets on tap) but the Cards have fallen off the pace at 6-6. Arizona has lost FOUR of five (lone exception was its 'miracle' Hail Mary win against the Bills). However, in this "season like no other," Arizona's 6-6 record would have them in first place in the 2020 NFC East, ONE game up on New York. The slumping Cards are at MetLife Field on Sunday to take on the surging Giants, who have won FOUR in a row, after a shocking 17-12 win in Seattle (as an 11-point underdog) last Sunday.

Arizona Kyler Murray has been contained better recently but the second-year player is having an impressive season. He's thrown for 2,997 yards with 22 TDs and 10 INTs plus he's run for 665 yards on 56.5 YPC with 10 rush TDs. Drake (768 yards on 4.3 YPC with 5 TDs) has become a reliable RB and his ankle is said to be fine. The problem for Arizona has been its defense. The Cards were allowing just 18.7 PPG over their first six games entering their Week 7 game with Seattle and although the Cards won (37-34), the defense has allowed 30.7 PPG its last six.

The Giants' 2020 season seemed "all but dead" after eight games, when they fell to 1-7 with a 25-23 MNF Week 8 loss to the Bucs. However, the Giants had been competitive in four straight games, a one-point win and three losses by a combined SIX points. The Giants enter this contest on a FOUR-game winning streak (3-1 ATS) and are now tied with Washington for first in the NFC East (Eagles are only 3-8-1) but do own the tiebreaker. QB Jones missed last week's win at Seattle, despite Colt McCoy going just 13 of 22 for 105 yards with one TD and one INT (67.4 QB rating). However, RB Gallman ran for 135 yards and the New York defense held Russell Wilson and the Seattle offense to just one TD. 

The victory marked New York's first win this season over a winning team but while the Cards are just 6-6, Arizona is still 'alive' in the NFC wild card chase. Jones is expected to be back but is that really good news. He has more INTs (9) than TD passes (8) on the season with one of the NFL's worst QB ratings (78.7) among regular starters. The Cards are the better team and are overdue for a breakout performance. The "numbers" tell us that the Cards are 8-3 ATS in non-division road games AND that the Giants are just 3-12 ATS their last 15 as a home dog since the start of the 2018 season (an 80% go-against).

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers looked as good as any team in the NFC when they were sitting at 6-2 but a 1-3 run has seen them fall back to 7-5 and all of a sudden, the Bucs are fighting for a wild card spot. As for the Vikings, they were 10-6 last season and upset the 13-3 Saints in the playoffs but opened the 2020 season 1-5. However, in contrast to the Bucs, the Vikings come into this contest having won FIVE and six and at 6-6, are tied with the Cards just ONE game back of the Bucs plus Minnesota currently own the tiebreaker over Arizona. Both teams can bolster their NFC playoff chances with a win on Sunday.

Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins rarely gets respect but he's completing 67.8% for 3,073 yards with 26 TDs and 12 INTs for a 103.9 QB rating in 2020. That comes on the heels of him completing 70.1 and 69.1% in his first two seasons with the Vikings, passing for 4,298  and 3,603 yards with 56 YTDs and 16 INTs with QB ratings of 90.7 and 107.4. He misses WR Diggs (at Buffalo) but rookie Jefferson has 61 catches on 17.0 YPC with seven TDs, while veteran Thielen has 57 catches with 12 TDs. RB Dalvin Cook is the No. 2 rusher in the league (1,250 yards on 5.0 YPC) and the leader in rushing TDs with 13. He had 38 touches (32 rushes, 6 catches) in Minnesota's 27-24 overtime win over the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. Of course, the defense has struggled for most of the season (27.4 PPG allowed ranks 26th) but let's not ignore those FIVE wins in six games (loss came by THREE points).

Tampa Bay limped into its bye last week with three losses in its last four games,  two by three points each to the Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City Chiefs. A Week 13 bye was likely good news, as the team has been plagued by slow starts (Bucs have been outscored 52-7 in the first quarter of their last four games). Brady's passed for 3,3000 yards with 28 TDs and 11 INTs (on pace for about 4,400 yards with 37 TDs) and RB Ronald Jones is fourth in the NFL in rushing yards with 820 (5.1 YPC and five TDs). WRs Goodwin (49 catches and three TDs ) and Evans (48 catches and 11 TDs) are also getting contributions from TE Gronk (37 catches and four TDs). The season-long defensive rankings look solid, allowing 23.3 PPG (11th) on 329.9 YPG (7th) but in the team's 1-3 slide, the "stop unit" has done little 'stopping,' allowing 28.8 PPG.

Brady has surely made the Bus better but the Bucs continue to struggle as a home favorite (long-time 'ugly' numbers), going 1-3 ATS in that role in 2020. Minnesota's balanced offense should give Tampa Bay's defense fits and I will NOT ignore Minnesota's 5-1 SU run with the LONE loss coming by just THREE points. Take the big points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on Va Tech at 8:00 ET.

The Virginia Cavaliers (5-4 / 4-4 ACC) are riding a four-game winning streak and haven't lost since Oct. 24 entering Saturday night's Commonwealth Cup battle in Blacksburg, Va. In contrast, the Va Tech Hokies (4-6 / 4-5 ACC) enter on a four-game losing streak and haven't won since Oct. 31. This will be the 102nd meeting of a series dating back to 1895 and was originally scheduled for Sep 19 but COVID-19 issues in the Hokies' program forced the postponement to this date.

Bronco Mendenhall spent 11 years as BYU head coach, leading the Cougars to 11 bowls during his tenure. He took the Virginia job in 2016 and flopped,' going 2-10 his first season. However, he righted the ship quickly, by following with THREE straight bowl berths. The 2019 season was special, as he led the Cavs to their first victory over Virginia Tech after fifteen consecutive losses in their rivalry, capping a 9–3 regular season and that secured the program's first Coastal Division title and a berth in the 2019 ACC Championship Game and 2019 Orange Bowl.

Justin Fuente used back-to-back seasons of 10-3 and 9-3 (2014 and 2015) at Memphis to land the Va Tech job on November 29, 2015 He replaced the retiring Frank Beamer and in his first season in Blacksburg, Fuente led the Hokies to a 9-3 regular season record and a trip to the ACC Championship, representing the Coastal division, The Hokies defeated the Arkansas Razorbacks 35-24 in the 2016 Belk Bowl, overturning a 24-0 deficit at halftime and winning three consecutive bowl games for the first time in the program's history. Virginia Tech finished the season ranked #16 in both the AP and Coaches Poll. However, while Fuente's led the Hokies to bowl games in each of the last three seasons, Va Tech has lost each one.

Brennan Armstrong has taken over at QB for Virginia and has thrown 16 TDs and nine INTs, while also leading the team in rushing with 529 yards (5 TDs). He's led the Cavs to four straight wins, completing 65.3% with nine TDs and three INTs. He's off back-to-back games with more than 400 yards of total offense, passing for a career-high 383 yards and four TDs vs Abilene Christian on Nov 21 and then rushed for a career-high 130 yards and a TD in last Saturday's 43-32 win over Boston College. RB Kemp is the team's top receiver (58 catches) and TE Poljan has 33 catches and five TDs. WR Davis has played in just six games but averages 25.9 YPC on his 17 receptions with five TDs. The defense. The offense is averaging 32.4 PPG but the defense is allowing 29.2.

Va Tech QB Hendon Hooker exited last Saturday's 45-10 loss at Clemson, experiencing muscle spasms due to temperatures in the low 30s. However, by Monday he was feeling MUCH better and is expected to be just fine. He's completing 65.3% for 1,339 yards with nine TDS and five INTs, plus adds 620 rushing yards on 5.2 YPC with nine TDs. He's joined by RB Herbert, who has 1,020 yards on 7.6 YPC with seven TDs. Va Tech averages 30.9 PPG but allows 33.8.

At first blush, UVa coming in on a four-game winning streak while averaging 43.3 PPG would seem like the obvious choice against a Va Tech team on a four-game slide. UVa is looking for its first five-game winning streak since 2007 but the Hokies own a HUGE revenge motive. The Cavaliers snapped a 15-game losing streak to the Hokies with a 39-30 win last season in Charlottesville when it scored nine points in the final 1:23 with a 48-yard FG and a recovery of a Virginia Tech fumble in the end zone. Va Tech head coach Justin Fuente is on the hot seat with a 37-26 record since taking over in 2016 and with Va Tech's loss dropping them to 46, the Hokies are guaranteed to end the 2020 season with a losing record for only the second time since 1992! This will truly be Va Tech's 'bowl game." I'm on the Hokies.

Good luck...Larry

 My 10* Rivalry Game of the Month is on USC at 7:30 ET.

USC is 4-0 and ranked 15th (CFP) and 16th (AP) as it tries to secure a spot in the Pac-12 Conference championship game when the Trojans take on crosstown rival UCLA (3-2) in the Rose Bowl. Colorado hosts Utah at 12 noon ET (7 1/2 hours before this game kicks) and if the Buffs win, USC will NEED to beat UCLA to win the Pac 12 South. USC put itself in position to play for the conference championship by beating visiting Washington State 38-13 last Sunday night. That game was pushed back two days following a small COVID-19 outbreak on the USC team, a situation that initially forced the Trojans to cancel their game against No. 21 Colorado on Nov. 28. The schedule adjustment shrank USC's window to prepare for UCLA. As for the Bruins, they are coming off a 25-18 win at Arizona State last Saturday night, their first win in the month of December since the 2013 Sun Bowl (think about that, for more than a minute or two!). The victory also lifted UCLA's record above .500 for the first time since a win on Oct. 21, 2017, had them at 4-3 (yet another thought to ponder!).

USC was once known by the nickname of "Tailback U" but no longer. This year's team is averaging a pathetic 111.5 YPG on the ground (3.6 YPC). QB Kedon Slovis leads this year's team, completing 72.1% while averaging 314.3 YPG through the air (1,257 yards in four games) with 10 TDs and just two INTS in 165 attempts. He leads an offense averaging 33.3 PPG (30th) and the defense has been sound, allowing 21.8 PPG (26th) on 356.5 YPG (34th). UCLA benefited last weekend with the return of QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson (57.8% completions for 691 yards with 8 TDs and 2 INTs) who was among nine Bruins to miss two games because of COVID-19 concerns. He completed 18 of 24 passes for 192 yards and a TD against Arizona State. He also rushed for 49 yards and a score (218 rush yards on 5.0 YPC and 3 TDs on the season). It seems as if USC's running game has moved to Westwood, as the Bruins are averaging 2267.6 YPG on the ground (16th) on 5.6 YPC. A quick look at the team's defense shows UCLA allowing 24.8 PPG but one must CLOSER!

Let me do just that. First off, UCLA's losses are to now-No. 21 Colorado, when the Bruins allowed 48 points and to then-No. 11 Oregon, allowing 38 points. UCLA's three wins have come over the two Arizona schools (a combined 0-6 entering Friday's Territorial Cup meeting) and 1-3 Cal. The Bruins allowed just 12.7 PPG against that trio, which have a combined 1-9 record. Then there is UCLA head coach Chip Kelly who had a four-year record of 46-7 (.868) at Oregon but since moving on to the NFL and now UCLA, seems to have left his "Genius" moniker in Eugene. Kelly's teams are a combined 38-54 (.413) post-Oregon, including 10-19 (.345) at UCLA.

Anyone really trust "Sir Chip" in a big game like this? As for USC, it needed two TDs in the final three minutes to escape in its season opener 28-27 against ASU and then scored with 25 seconds left to edge Arizona 34-30. However, the Trojans have won 33-17 over Utah and 38-13 over Washington St, since. A win will give the Trojans a 5-0 record for the first time since 2006, when they started 6-0, plus propel into the Pac 12 title game against Washington, a team which just had to cancel its game with Oregon on Saturday due to COVID issues. A win there and USC will play in the Rose Bowl at 6-0. USC has won 16 of the last 21 meetings against UCLA, so expect the Trojans to 'ring' the Victory Bell at the end of Saturday's game!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Miami-Fl at 3:30 ET.

It's a battle of ranked ACC teams from Miami, Fl on Saturday, as No. North Carolina (7-3, 6-3 in the ACC) visits No. 10 Miami-Fl (8-1, 7-1 in the ACC). The Tar Heels are off a 49-9 home win last Saturday over Western Carolina, while Miami routed Duke 45-0 last Saturday, despite having 15 players out due to injuries, coronavirus and other issues. The Tar Heels lost 31-17 at home to No. 2 Notre Dame back Nov 27 but get a chance at another top-10 here against the Hurricanes, who they beat last year 28-25 at Chapel Hill with a late TD.

North Carolina opened 3-0 and rose to No. 5 in the AP poll but were then shocked 31-28 at Florida St, a team whose only other win this season has come over Jacksonville St. QB Sam Howell beat Miami as a freshman last year and is having an excellent sophomore season, completing 68.8% for 3,129 yards with 26 TDs and just six INTs. Two RBs share the ball-carrying duties and BOTH should top 1,000 yards on the season. Carter has 937 yards for 937 yards (7.1 YPC) with seven TDs and Williams has 904 yards (6.7 YPC) with 16 TDs plus has three receiving TDs among his 23 catches. WRs Brown (51 catches on 18.3 YPC with 8 TDs) and Newsome (46 catches / 13.1 YPC / 5 TDs) are Howell's main targets. North Carolina averaged 41.1 PPG but allows 28.6 YPG.

Houston transfer D'Eriq King ranks third in the ACC -- behind only Howell and Clemson's Trevor Lawrence -- in total offense (311.2 yards per game), passing for 2,334 yards with 20 TDs and only four INTs, while rushing for 467 yards and four more TDs. He has fulfilled his reputation as a dual threat. RB Harris leads with 567 yards on 5.2 YPC with eight TDs. King has a bevy of targets with a trio of WRs combining for 102 catches and 10 TDs, while both TEs have four TD catches each, combining for 40 receptions. Miami can't quite match North Carolina's offensive punch (averages 34.9 PPG) but is the much better defensive team, allowing 22.0 PPG on 366.2 YPG.

Speaking of the Miami D, despite missing five key defensive players against Duke, Miami forced FIVE turnovers. A win here and a win next weekend vs Ga Tech and Miami will cap off a 10-1 regular season, which will earn a MAJOR bowl bid. The home team has dominated this series by going 7-1 ATS and with MUCH to play for, expect Miami to avenge last season's three-point loss.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on Colorado at 12:00 ET.

Note: The game was originally scheduled for Friday night. It was moved to take the place of the Michigan-Ohio State game, which was canceled because of COVID-19 issues within the Wolverines' program. The Utah-Colorado game will start at 12:05 p.m. ET, which is 10 a.m. local time. No COVID issue regarding these teams.

The Utah Utes and the Colorado Buffaloes conclude their respective abbreviated Pac 12 seasons with this game in Boulder. Utah's Kyle Whittingham was working under Urban Meyer at Utah back in 2004, a season in which the Utes went 12-0. Meyer left for the University of Florida and Whittingham was offered the head coaching job at Utah and also the head coaching job at his alma mater, BYU. He chose Utah and this is his 16th season as the school' head coach. He took Utah to six straight bowl games beginning in 2005, then came back-to-back 5-7 records. However, in 2014, he began another stretch of six straight bowl appearances, including last year's 11-3 record. Only the 2008 team, which went 13-0, had a better one-year record. The Utes come to Boulder having played just THREE games in this "Season of COVID," winning for the first time last Saturday by holding on to beat Oregon St 30-24.

Colorado wasn't expected to do much this year after head coach Mel Tucker was hired away by Michigan State and his replacement, Karl Dorrell, had no spring practice to work in a new QB. Dorrell was head coach at UCLA from 2003 to 2007 and led the Bruins to FIVE bowl appearances in five seasons, although he did not coach in the fifth after he was fired in December 2007. Truth is, his overall record at UCLA was only 35–27. Dorrell was named the 27th full time head coach at Colorado when Mel Tucker bolted after one season for Michigan St. Tucker had taken over from Mike MacIntyre, so Dorrell is Colorado's THIRD head coach in as many seasons. With ZERO expectations, the Buffs have gone 4-0 and have a chance to win the South Division and earn a spot in the Pac-12 title game with a win here and a USC loss at UCLA on Saturday. If both Colorado and USC win (or lose), USC would win a tiebreaker with one more Pac 12 win than the Buffs.

Utah QB Bentley is averaging only 163 YPG through the air with three TDs and four INTs. Freshman RB Ty Jordan ran for 167 yards and a TD in the Utes' 30-24 win over Oregon State last Saturday, a week after a costly fumble in a loss at Washington (more later). Utah has just one player with more than seven receptions through three games and that's TE Kuithe, who has 16 but averages 7.6 YPC and had not caught a TD pass. Utah's defense allowed just 15.0 PPG on 269 YPG last season but with just TWO returning starters, has allowed 25.0 PPG on 346.3 YPG.

Colorado fell behind Arizona 13-0 by the early second quarter last Saturday but shut out the Wildcats the rest of the way for a 24-13 win. RB Jarek Broussard. Broussard has rushed for 733 yards (6.4 YPC) in four games, with 301 coming in last week's win at Arizona. He was named the Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Week for the second time this season. Broussard (183.3 YPG) is ahead of Rashaan Salaam's four-game total when the late Colorado tailback won the 1994 Heisman Trophy. QB Nagy did throw two INTs vs Arizona but has been steady through four games with 742 yards passing and 179 yards rushing (five rushing TDs). The Buffaloes moved into this week's AP poll at No. 21 this past Sunday for the first time since 2018 and Tuesday night was also ranked No. 21 in the latest CFP standings.

The Utes have lost 33-17 to USC and then 24-21 to Washington, after taking a 21-0 lead at the half. The team's 30-24 win against Oregon St is hardly a 'buy' sign. Meanwhile. Colorado's beaten UCLA at home, Stanford on the road and San Diego St at home, before its comeback win over Arizona. The Buffs can't control what happens in the Rose Bowl with USC and UCLA but can and I believe WILL win this one, giving the Trojans plenty to think about before taking the field on Saturday. A win here, a USC loss to UCLA and a win in the Pac 12 championship game would mean a first-ever Rose Bowl appearance for the Buffs. That's a lot to take in. I'll be happy just to see them win Friday night.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Ls Vegas Insider Game of the Year is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET.

The New England Patriots have won FOUR of their last five, including a 45-0 'spanking' over the Chargers last Sunday. That game was played SoFi Stadium and New England head coach Bill Belichick and his team celebrated that triumph by staying in Los Angeles and working out at UCLA as opposed to making a pair of cross-country flights, as the Pats are right back in SoFi Stadium on Thursday night to face the Los Angeles Rams. Arizona, the LA Rams and Seattle were all 6-3 and tied atop the NFC West entering Week 11 but as Week 14 dawns, the Rams and Seahawks are tied at 8-4 (Rams currently own the tiebreaker), while the Cards have fallen off the pace at 6-6.

That Pats won 45-0 last Sunday in a game in which they gained just 291 of total offense. QB Cam Newton passed for only 69 yards but did have 48 rushing yards with two TDs. The Pats became the seventh team in league history to have a punt returned for a TD (70 yards) and a blocked field goal returned for a TD (44 yards) in the same game. New England did run for 165 yards and for the season have averaged 150.9 YPG on the ground (3rd in the NFL). However, Newton has been just AWFUL as a passer with just five TDs and nine INTs and a QB rating of 80.3 (among the worst of all QBs). The team's top-two pass catchers (Byrd and Meyers) have a combined 75 receptions and just one TD! New England's defense ranked first in the NFL in points allowed (14.1 PPG) and total defense (275.0 YPG) last season but even after last week's shutout, is allowing 21.3 PPG (NINE points per game more than LY) on 344.6 YPG (about 70 YPG more).

Jared Goff led the Rams to a Super Bowl berth in the 2018 season by throwing for 4,688 yards with 32 TDs and just 12 INTs (191.1 QB rating) and while he threw for 4,638 last season, his TD/INT ratio was just 22-16 and his QB rating fell to 86.5 (Rams went from 13-3 to 9-7). He's on pace to throw for around 4,500 yards in 2020 and his TD/INT ratio is 17-10 (QB rating of 93.7). The Rams said good-bye to RB Gurley and the running game has gone from averaging only 93.7 YPG (3.7 YPC) in 2019 to 124.2 YPG (ranks 9th) this season. Henderson, Brown and recently Akers have shared the ball carrying duties. Cam Akers ran 21 times for 72 yards and a TD in LA;s 38-28 win over the Cards but he has an ailing shoulder. Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown will fill in just fine if he's not 100 percent. While New England's top-two receivers have combined for just 75 catches, LA's Kupp has 74 catches and Woods 71. The TE duo of Higbee and Everett have a combined 66 catches with five TDs. As for defense, led by two-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald, Los Angeles ranks fifth in scoring defense (20.3 PPG) and second in total defense (295.3 YPG).

An important matchup will be New England's running game (150.9 YPG ranks 3rd) against LA's rush D, which allows 93.1 YPG (3rd-best). The Pats were just 1-4 SU on the road before last Sunday's 45-0 blowout, with their LONE win coming against the still-winless Jets, game game the Pats trailed 27-17 in the fourth quarter before winning 30-27 on a 51-yard FG with 0:00 on the clock. A quick turnaround here vs a VERY good Rams team is NOT a good spot for the Pats. The Rams own impressive wins over Seattle and at Tampa Bay plus last week's 10-point win at Arizona over their last four games (loss came on a FG by the Niners on the final play of the game). Rams are the play!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the Buf Bills at 8:15 ET.

The 8-3 Buffalo Bills and 5-6 San Francisco 49ers meet MNF at the home of the Arizona Cardinals, State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Az. The 49ers' home field is Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Ca and due to new COVID-related restrictions in Santa Clara County San Francisco's "home" games in Week 13 (Buffalo) and Week 14 (Washington) have been relocated to the Cardinals' home stadium. The Bills sit atop the AFC East but Miami's win on Sunday means that Buffalo needs to win here to stay one game up on the Dolphins. As for San Francisco, the defending NFC champs are currently in last place in the NFC West, although a win here would move them to 6-6 and into a tie with Arizona and Minnesota, just ONE game behind 7-5 Tampa Bay, which currently holds the NFC's final wild card spot.

Buffalo enters the contest having won FOUR of five, with the lone loss having come at Arizona in Week 10 with what was an almost UNBELIEVABLE ending! The Bills got a much-needed bye in Week 11 Bills and returned in Week 12 with a 27-17 home win over Los Angeles Chargers behind a running and a passing TD from QB Josh Allen and a trick-play score on a 20-yard pass from Cole Beasley to fellow WR Gabriel Davis. Josh Allen is in his third season. He made great strides in his second season (2019) and began the current season as just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. He's come into his own in 2020, completing 68.8% for 3,028 yards with 22 TDs and eight INTs, while rushing for 311 yards with six TDs. His QB rating was 67.9 in his rookie season, 85.3 in 2019 and it's up to 102.3 in 2020. More importantly, he has the Bills at 8-3, putting them in position to capture their first division title since 1995. Allen doesn't get much support from his running game either, as the Bills are averaging just 10.4 YPG on the ground (21st). However, the addition of WR Diggs has been HUGE, as he leads the team with 80 catches (four TDs). Fellow WR Beasley, who has averaged 59 catches per season the last five, has 57 through 11 games (on pace for 83). Buffalo's defense allowed just 16.2 PPG last season (2nd to only New England) on 298.3 YPG (3rd) but this season is allowing 25.6 PPG (about 10 points higher), on 373.1 YPG (about 75 yards more per game).

The 49ers have struggled all season with significant injuries and Nick Mullens (67.5% for 1,642 yards with six TDs and seven INTs) will again get the start at QB with Jimmy G still sidelined. RB Mostert (772 yards on 5.6 YPC with eight TDs) has played just five games (346 yards), leaving McKinnon as the "best of the rest" with 315 yards on 3.9 YPC but does have five TDs and 27 catches. San Francisco upset the Rams 23-20 last Sunday and the good news was Mostert returned and WR Samuel returned to catch 11 passes for 133 yards but TE Kittle (37 catches leads the team despite him playing just six games) remains sidelined. The 49ers are averaging only 112.0 YPG on the ground (averaged 141.0 LY) and with Mullens and injuries to their receiving corps, are averaging only 23.7 PPG, down from 29.9 PPG last season.

The Bills have steadily improved under head coach Sean McDermott and want to make sure they DON'T repeat last season 2-3 finish, when they were also 8-3 through 11 games. Buffalo controls its own destiny in the AFC East and after this game, has only one "sure win" in its four remaining games (Denver). The other three are against Pittsburgh (11-0), New England (has won FIVE of six) and Miami. "Big game" for the Bills and a win would be "just desserts" coming in the same stadium they lost that heartbreaker to the Cardinals!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AFC Game of the Year is on the LA Chargers at 4:25 ET.

The 5-6 New England Patriots have won the AFC East 11 straight years (17 of the last 19) and last had a losing season back in 2000, going 5-11 in Bill Belichick's first season as the Pats' head coach. The Patriots visit LA on Sunday for a game with the 3-8 LA Chargers, having won THREE of their last four to get them to within one game of .500. The contest marks the first of a three-game road trip beginning with Chargers, then staying in LA for a Thursday night game with Rams in Week 14 and finishing up with a game at Miami in Week 15. "We are not where we need to be or want to be," said Belichick. "[A fast start] will be important this week. It's important every week."

The Chargers will take the field having lost FOUR of their last five to fall to 3-8 in what was expected to be a rebuilding year. In fact, the matchup will be the first between the Patriots and Chargers NOT to feature either Tom Brady or Philip Rivers at QB since 1997. Brady famously left New England after 20 years and Rivers left the Chargers after 16 year to sign with the Colts.

New England was counting on former MVP Cam Newton to lead the offense but has just FOUR touchdown passes in 266 attempts with nine INTs. He does have 387 rushing yards (9 TDs) for a running game that ranks fifth by averaging 149.6 YPG on the ground. However, the team's receiving corps is a pathetic group. Edleman is out with an injury (had just 21 catches after six games), while WRs Byrd and Meyers have 71 combined catches and just one TD reception. New England's defense ranked first in the NFL in points allowed (14.1 PPG) and total defense (275.0 YPG) but this season the Pats are allowing 23.2 PPG (that's NINE more per game) on 352.5 YPG.

The Chargers lost Rivers but have found a "franchise" QB in Justin Herbert. He's completing 66.9% for 3,015 yards with 23 TDs and seven TDs (110.9 QB rating). WR Allen is having another brilliant season with 85 catches and seven TDs plus TE Henry has 48 catches with three TDs. The running game is no better than average (117.2 YPG ranks 11th) but the return of Austin Ekeler last week is GREAT news. He ran for 557 yards (3 TDs) and caught 92 passes (8 TDs) last season and last Sunday at Buffalo ran for 44 yards and caught 11 passes for 85 yards. The Chargers are allowing 27.3 PPG (25th) but a more modest 342.9 YPG (12th).

The Chargers have blown double digit leads on a regular basis but I like them here vs the Pats. Yes, the Pats have won three of four but in five road games in 2020, they are 1-4 SU with their LONE win coming against 0-11 Jets, game game the Pats trailed 27-17 in the fourth quarter before winning 30-27 on a 51-yard FG with 0:00 on the clock.

Methinks the Pats have a VERY good chance of a losing season!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the Phi Eagles at 4:25 ET.

My 9* Division Game of the Month (NFC West) is on the LA Rams at 4:05 ET.

Arizona, the LA Rams and Seattle were all 6-3 and tied atop the NFC West entering Week 11. Seattle is currently 8-3 but the Rams (7-4) and the Cards (6-5) have fallen off the pace, as they square off in a critical game at Glendale, Az on Sunday. The Rams fell out of a first-place tie with the Seahawks on Sunday after a last-second 23-20 home defeat to the San Francisco 49ers, while the Cardinals fell two games off the pace after they lost 20-17 at the New England Patriots, also on a last-second FG. Catching Seattle will be tough (Seahawks have a very easy schedule ahead) but the loser of this game will really hurt its wild card chances.

Jared Goff led the Rams to a Super Bowl berth in the 2018 season by throwing for 4,688 yards with 32 TDs and just 12 INTs (191.1 QB rating) and while he threw for 4,638 last season, his TD/INT ratio was just 22-16 and his QB rating fell to 86.5 (Rams went from 13-3 to 9-7). He's on pace to throw for around 4,400 yards in 2020 and his TD/INT ratio is 16-10 (QB rating of 92.7). The Rams said good-bye to RB Gurley and the running game has gone from averaging only 93.7 YPG (3.7 YPC) in 2019 to 124.6 YPG (ranks 9th) this season. Henderson (510 yards on 4.3 YPC with four TDs) and Brown (371 yards on 4.3 YPC and five TDs) have shared the workload. WRs Kupp (66 catches) and Woods (61) plus the TE duo of Higbee and Everett have combined for 56 catches and four TDs. Led by two-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald, Los Angeles ranks fourth in scoring defense (19.5 PPG) and second in total defense (296.7 YPG).

Kyler Murray has thrown for 2,814 yards with 19 TDs and nine INTs. He's also run for 650 yards (6.7 YPC) with 10 TDs. RB Kenyan Drake is turning into a solid player, rushing for 719 yards (4.3 YPC) and seven TDs. Future HOF Fitzgerald may have 43 catches but he's averaging only 7.8 YPC without a TD. Hopkins is now the team's "go-to" WR with 77 catches, with Kirk catching 34 passes with six TDs.

However, here's the rub. The Cardinals have lost three of their last four games and are a successful Hail Mary pass from Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins away from being on a four-game losing streak. Opponents have started to contain Murray's passing ability with blitzes and have stifled his running ability by focusing on him rather than the backs on handoff zone-reads. The Rams defense is surely capable of doing the same. Speaking of defense, when the Cards beat the 49ers back on Oct 25, they entered that game with their defense allowing just 18.7 PPG. However, including that 34-31 win in OT, the Arizona defense has allowed 29.2 PPG over its last five games.

Jared Goff lost a fumble in Sunday's defeat to the 49ers and threw TWO interceptions, one which was returned for a TD. After the game, head coach Sean McVay said his quarterback has to take better care of the football. As for Goff, he responded, "I'm a big boy," he said. "I can handle it." Goff shouldn't lack for confidence, as this series has clearly been one-sided over the last three years with the Rams going a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS. Why not a 'Lucky 7' in a row?

Good luck...Larry

 My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Ind Colts at 1:00 ET.

The Indianapolis Colts won a huge game 34-17 in Tennessee against the Titans back in Week 10 and followed in Week 11 with a 34-31 OT win at home over the Packers (trailed 28-14 at the half) but 'ran out of gas' last Sunday at home, when the Titans (behind Henry's 178 rushing yards and three TDs) crushed the Colt 45-26. The 7-4 Colts now trail the 8-3 Titans in the AFC South as they visit Houston to take on the Texans. The Texans entered the season having won FOUR of the previous five AFC titles but not much has gone right for Houston this season. The Texans crushed the sad-sack Lions 41-25 on Thanksgiving but Houston is just 4-7 on the season and the playoffs are hardly a serious likelihood.

The Colts signed QB Philip Rivers in the offseason as a FA and he's been solid. Rivers took over as the Chargers' starting QB in 2006 and over the next 14 seasons, started EVERY game, topping 3,000 passing yards in every one, including passing for over 4,000 yards 11 times (he's topped 4,000 in his last SEVEN seasons). He's on pace for another 4,000-yard season in 2020, as through 11 games he's got 2,978 yards. His completion rate of 67.3% is slightly above his career mark (64.8) and his QB rating of 93.9 is just below his career mark (95.0). Rookie RB Taylor (518 rushing yards / 3.8 YPC) has been a disappointment but fellow RB Hines leads the team with 44 catches. WRs Hilton (33 catches) and Pascal (32) are hardly special but the Indy defense, despite some recent issues, has been strong. The Colts are allowing 23.0 PPG (9th) and 311.8 YPG (5th).

Houston signed QB Deshaun Watson to a huge contract before the season and it's hard to blame the team's poor season on him. He's completing 68.9% for 3,2101 yards with 24 TDs and just five INTs. He enters this game without an interception in SIX straight games but the Texans are just 3-3 in those contests. No one really expected that Houston could play its way into the playoff picture but with WR Will Fuller V and cornerback Bradley Roby earning season-ending suspensions based on violating the league's policy on performance-enhancing drugs, the Texan's slim hopes have 'left town!' Fuller was having the most productive season of his five-year career with 53 receptions, 879 yards and eight touchdowns. Replacing him will be all but impossible on the heels of the Texans losing WR Randall Cobb (38 catches / 3 TDs) to injury. The team's prospects are not helped by a defense allowing 27.0 PPG (23rd) on 409.5 YPG (30th).

These teams will meet again in Week 15 but I'm taking the Colts here, as they've covered SIX of their last seven matchups with the Texans, who have very little left to play for in 2020.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on San Diego St at 7:00 ET.

Colorado St went to FIVE consecutive bowl games from 2013 through 2017 but back-to-back 39 and 4-8 seasons followed in 2018 and 2019. Calls for head coach Mike Bobo's firing gained steam throughout last season. Just over 12,000 people attended the final home game against Boise State, one of the Rams' worst home crowds since before Sonny Lubick's arrival with Bobo and CSU mutually agreeing to part ways just days later. Steve Addazio got the job, after being fired at BC. He did lead BC to SIX bowl appearances in his seven-year tenure but his teams never won more than seven games in a season and his career mark at the school ended at 44-44. The Rams have seen their last two games canceled and have played just THREE games to-date. Colorado St won 34-24 at home vs Wyoming but in two road games, has lost 38-17 at Fresno St and 52-21 at Boise St.

Brady Hoke is back coaching the Aztecs after Rocky Long retired after the 2019 season. He took over a program that had won 10-plus games in FOUR of the previous five years and has been to 10 consecutive bowl games! The Aztecs opened 3-1 but then lost 26-21 at Nevada on Nov 21. The team's game with Fresno St on Nov 27 was canceled early in the week and SDSU hastily arranged a game in Boulder against Colorado. The Buffs are a good team and the Aztecs lost 20-10. The defense was great last season, allowing 12.7 PPG on only 288.0 YPG and it hasn't been too far off those numbers in 2020 (16.2 PPG ranks 9th and 270.3 YPG ranks 3rd).

This marks SDSU's final home game of the season, as the Aztecs finish next Saturday at BYU (good luck in that one!). Lay the points here with the Aztecs.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on Georgia Southern at 6:00 ET.

The 5-1 Florida Atlantic Owls of C-USA visit Paulson Stadium in Statesboro, Ga for a game with the 6-4 Georgia Southern Eagles. The game was originally scheduled to be played back on Sep 19 but the schools were able to reschedule. FAU lost head coach Lane Kiffin to Ole Miss after he led the Owls to an 11-3 season in 2019 and just two days after Lane Kiffin resigned, FAU announced the hiring of Willie Taggart. This marks Taggert's FOURTH different head coaching job since 2016 (USF, Oregon, FSU and now FAU). Chad Lunsford served as interim coach at Georgia Southern for the second half of the 2017 season following the firing and departure of Tyson Summers. The team finished that season 2-4 but he was awarded the head coaching gig on November 27, 2017. 10-3 and 7-6 seasons followed (including two bowl berths) and Lunsford had the Eagles at 6-2 before back-to-back road losses at Army (28-27) and to rival Georgia St (30-24).

Florida Atlantic's lone loss is to 7-0 Marshall (20-9 on the road) and has won FOUR in a row since over UTSA, Western Kentucky, FIU and UMass. Florida Atlantic doesn't overwhelm on offense, averaging 21.0 PPG (106th) on 330.5 YPG (113th). However, they have been stout on defense, allowing 11.2 PPG (2nd) on 293.0 YPG (7th). Georgia Southern's option attack averages 267.6 YPG on the ground (5th), as QB Werts is the team's leading rusher (649 yards) with three RBs chipping in between 447 and 625 yards. The offense is far from prolific (27.0 PPG ranks just 89th) but the defense has played well all season, allowing 23.0 PPG (29th) on 329.9 YPG (22nd).

FAU's four-game winning streak is far from impressive as the wins have come by the following scores; 24-3 over UTSA 24-3, 10-6 over Western Kentucky, 38-19 over FIU and 24-2 over UMass. Only UTSA owns a winning record (7-4). Western Ky is 4-6 plus FIU and UMass are a combined 0-9! Georgia Southern has lost to the SBC's two-best teams, by just TWO points (on a late FG) at ULL and by 28-14 at Coastal Carolina, in a game that was tied 14-14 midway through the fourth quarter. Georgia Southern is 5-0 at home this season, after going 5-1 each of the last two seasons. That is a 15-2 SU run and at this 'price,' Ga Southern is a bargain!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on Coastal Carolina at 5:30 ET.

The College Football Playoff selection committee made it clear in each of its first two rankings that BYU's weak schedule was keeping it outside the top-10. The Cougars play as an Independent and had planned a 2020 schedule which included three Pac-12 teams, two Big Ten teams and one SEC team (it was being touted as the strongest in the program's storied history). However, BYU had to build a schedule from scratch when the Big Ten and Pac 12 postponed their respective seasons in August and the SEC decided to play a conference-only schedule. What remained was a slate that did not have any Power 5 schools. BYU's strength of schedule is currently No. 87 with only three wins against FBS teams over .500. BYU's athletic director Tom Holmoe felt a sense of urgency to try to quickly schedule another quality opponent and an "incredible opportunity" arose this week, when BYU was able to replace Liberty as Coastal Carolina's opponent on Saturday, after COVID-19 issues prevented the Flames from playing in the game. The game was put together at warp speed, as Holmoe said he first learned of Liberty's precarious position on Wednesday morning but it wasn't until Thursday morning that the game became official. 9-0 BYU is No. 8 in the AP poll but just 13th in the CFP standings and 9-0 Coastal Carolina is No. 14 in the AP and No. 18 in CFP. BYU can't possibly expect that a win at Coastal Carolina will vault them into 'Final Four' territory but a win and then a win Dec 12 against San Diego St could earn them one of the more lucrative bowl bids. Win or lose, Coastal Carolina has already qualified for the SBC title game in which the Chanticleers will get a rematch of their 30-27 win Oct 14 at ULL. That sets the stage.

BYU head coach Kalani Sitake took over at Provo back in 2016. The Cougars went 9-4 in his first season, capping the year with a win in the Poinsettia Bowl. However, BYU followed with a 4-9 bowl-less 2017 campaign and in 2018, only the team's win in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl allowed them to finish above .500 at 7-6. Sitake was feeling some 'heat' from the BYU "faithful" in 2019 after a 2-4 start but a five-game winning streak made BYU 7-4 bowl eligible and Sitake was rewarded with a contract extension through 2023. However, the Cougars lost their regular season final 13-3 at SD State and then lost the Hawaii Bowl to Hawaii 34-30, finishing at 7-6 again. Yes, the strength of BYU's schedule deserves to be taken into account but the 'eye test' reveals a team averaging 47.6 PPG (4th) on 538.3 YPG (4th), along with a defense allowing 13.9 PPG (4th) on 292.7 YPG (6th). QB Zach Wilson has been TERRIFIC, completing 74.3% for 2,724 yards with 26 TDs and just two INTS (his QB rating of 205.3 ranks second to only Alabama's Mac Jones). RB Allgeier is headed for a 1,000-yard season with 851 yards on 7.2 YPC with 11 TDs. Four players have 24 or more catches with WR Milne leading with 49 (6 TDs), and WR Romney leading with his 20.8 YPC average on 34 catches. TE Rex has 24 receptions but a team-high eight TD catches.

Coastal Carolina's Jamey Chadwell was named interim head coach when head coach Joe Moglia took a medical leave of absence in 2017. The school announced on January 5, 2018 that Moglia had been medically cleared to return to full-time coaching and would reassume the head coaching position. However, Chadwell was formally introduced as the third all-time head coach at Coastal Carolina on January 18, 2019. Caldwell led the Chanticleers' to a 5-7 season in 2019, with their most notable win coming 12-7 at Kansas. The Chanticleers opened the 2020 season by returning to Lawrence and easily defeating the Jayhawks 38-23 back on Sep 12. They have NEVER looked back, winning at ULL and home to Appalachian St, the two schools which have met in the last two SBC title games. Red-shirt freshman Grayson McCall won the starting QB job for the Chanticleers and has been excellent. He's completing 67.2% for 1,747 yards with 20 TDS and just ONE interception, while rushing for 368 yards and five TDs, C.J. Marable ran for 1,095 yards (5.3 YPC) in 2019 but has amore modest 592 yards on 5.0 YPC with eight TDs through nine games this season. WR Heiligh leads with 41 catches and eight TD grabs, while TE Likely has just 17 catches but averages 24.9 YPC with four TDs.

The storyline of this game seems to be just how much a BYU win will help the Cougars with the CFP committee. However, I can't help but believe Coastal Carolina is asking, "What about us?" BYU athletic director Tom Holmoe is calling this game at Coastal Carolina an "incredible opportunity." That could be true but I'm reminded of that old proverb that states, "Be careful what you wish for!" The Coastal Carolina 'eye test' reveals a team averaging 38.7 PPG on 448.3 YPG, while allowing 16.8 PPG on 322.2 YPG. I'm 'jumping all over' Coastal Carolina with all those points!

Good luck...Larry

 My 9* PERFECT STORM is on NC State at 4:00 ET.

7-3 North Carolina State (6-3 ACC) plays its final game of the season on Saturday against 3-5 Georgia Tech (3-4 ACC). NC State is still smarting from last year's 28-26 defeat to the Yellow Jackets in Atlanta, when an injury-depleted Wolfpack team fell behind 21-3 and saw their comeback fall short when a final two-point conversion failed. Surprisingly, NC State has not beaten Ga Tech in Raleigh since 2000!

Georgia Tech took the field last Saturday having not played since Oct 31 and ended a three-game losing streak with a 56-33 win over Duke. QB Sims set career highs for rushing yard (108) and TD passes (three) becoming the first freshman in the country to run for at least 100 yards and pass for at least three TDs in a game this season. That outstanding effort still leaves Sims with a modest 58.8% completion rate, just 1,492 passing yards and with as many INTs (11) as TD passes (11) on the season. He's added 385 rushing yards with four TDs. The Yellow Jackets average 193.6 YPG on the ground (39th) but the team's leading rusher (Gibbs) has just 460 yards. He also leads the team with 24 catches (12.6 YPC / 3 TDs). WR Camp has 22 catches for 14.5 YPC with three TDs and fellow wide-out Carter has 17 catches (14.4 YPC / 3 TDs). The Ga Tech defense is allowing 38.9 PPG which remains an issue.

Last year's starting QB Leary has been replaced by Bailey Hochman, who has thrown for 1,511 yards and 12 touchdowns in eight games. He passed for a career-high 313 yards and four TDs in the Wolfpack's most recent win, 36-29 at Syracuse. NC State has not run the ball as well as Ga Tech but does have two solid RBs in Knight (698 yards / 5.6 YPC / 8 TDs) and Person (576 yards / 4.6 YPC / 3 TDs). WRs Emezie and Thomas each have 36 catches, combining for 11 TDs. TE Angeline has 25 catches for 15.5 YPC with six TD catches. Like Ga Tech, the NC State defense is a negative, allowing 31.4 PPG.

NC State sits at 7-3, with ALL of its losses coming against ranked opponents. NC State has played FIVE ranked opponents in all, winning two of those games. NC State enters on a three-game winning streak with Hockman settling in at QB with seven TDs and three INTs during the streak. As for Ga Tech, let's note that all five of the team's losses have come by 17 or more points and here's a stat head coach Geoff Collins doesn't want you to hear. He was just 3-9 in his first season (2019) and has followed by going 3-5 in 2020. That's just SIX wins and following his first five wins (his sixth was last week vs Duke), Ga Tech has not just lost all FIVE but has also gone 0-5 ATS with an average margin of defeat of 30.4 PPG. Good enough for me!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Revenge Game of the Year is on Virginia at 3:30 ET.

Steve Addazio coached Boston College to SIX bowl appearances in his seven seasons but never won more than SEVEN games in any season. On December 1, 2019 following the conclusion of a 6-6 regular season, Boston College fired him (career record at BC was 44-44). Jeff Hafley was hired to be the co-defensive coordinator at Ohio State and quickly established himself as one of the best recruiters in the country and was hired to be the head coach at Boston College after the firing of Addazio. Boston College is 6-4 (5-4 in the ACC) in Hafley's first season and The Eagles will play their final regular season game of the year Saturday at Virginia.

Bronco Mendenhall spent 11 years as BYU head coach, leading the Cougars to 11 bowls during his tenure. He took the Virginia job in 2016 and flopped,' going 2-10 his first season. However, he righted the ship quickly, by following with THREE straight bowl berths. The 2019 season was special, as he led the Cavs to their first victory over Virginia Tech after fifteen consecutive losses in their rivalry, capping a 9–3 regular season and that secured the program's first Coastal Division title and a berth in the 2019 ACC Championship Game and 2019 Orange Bowl. It was the program's first Orange Bowl bid since turning down an invite 68 years earlier (for the 1952 Orange Bowl) and only the third New Year's Six appearance of any Coastal Division member. It was also the Cavaliers' most prestigious bowl appearance since George Welsh led the 1990 team to the Sugar Bowl.

Boston College is off a 34-27 victory at home over Louisville last Saturday, despite starting QB Phil Jurkovec (left knee) and No. 1 RB David Bailey (upper body) to injuries. Backup QB Dennis Grosel came on and threw two fourth-quarter TDs in the win. Jurkovec is a Notre Dame transfer and has completed 61 percent of his passes for 2,558 yards with 17 TDs and five INTs. As for Grosel, who started seven games in 2019, he said "It's kind of like riding a bike. I did it last year, so I hopped right on and held on for the ride." Bailey leads BC's running game with a modest 503 yards and the Eagles only average 112.6 YPG on the ground (113th), averaging a pathetic 3.3 YPC. WR Flowers has 48 catches with seven TDs and TE Long 49 catches with four TDs. The BC defense allows 26.9 PPG, just under what the team's offense scores (27.4.

Armstrong has taken over at QB for Virginia and has thrown 15 TDs and eight INTs, while also leading the team in rushing with 399 yards (4 TDs). The Cavs' running game is not bad, averaging 163.8 YPG (50 YPG more than BC) plus RB Kemp is the team's top receiver (52 catches). TE Poljan has 30 catches and five TDs plus WR Davis, who has played in just five games, averages 26.7 YPC on his 14 receptions with five TDs. 

The Cavaliers are 0-6 all-time against the Eagles heading into Saturday's home finale in Charlottesville, including an 0-2 record at home and an 0-4 mark since Boston College joined the Atlantic Coast Conference in 2005. So why should UVa win here? Boston College has alternated wins and losses over its last nine games and is coming off a win last Saturday (see above). The status QB Jurkovec and RB Bailey is not clear but I'm 'ON' Virginia, regardless. Armstrong has led UVa to three straight wins, throwing eight TD passes and just two INTs (also added three rushing TDs plus 178 yards), as the Cavs have averaged 43.3 PPG. Virginia is 16-2 SU at Scott Stadium dating back to the start of the 2018 season. Revenge works well in this one!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Appalachian St at 7:00 ET.

No. 20 ULL (8-1 / 6-1 SBC) visits Appalachian St (7-2, 5-1) on Friday night. Louisiana has already secured a spot in the conference championship game as the SBC-East champs, while Appalachian St's loss to Coastal Carolina (9-0 / 7-0) means it will not have a chance to defend its back-to-back SBC title game wins over ULL in 2018 and 2019.

Billy Napier accepted the head coaching job of the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns back on Dec 15, 2017, giving him his first job as a head coach of a college football team. His first season resulted with the Rajin' Cajuns winning the SBC-West and making a Cure Bowl appearance (lost to Tulane to finish 7-7). ULL won the West again last season and gave Appalachian St all it wanted in the SBC championship game (lost 45-38),before capping its season with a 27-17 bowl win over Miami-Ohio to finish 11-3. ULL opened the 2020 season by winning 31-14 at Iowa St as a two-TD underdog. That victory is arguably the biggest win in school history, as ULL beat a top-25 opponent on the road for the first time, having gone 0-26 against ranked foes away from home. ULL's only other win over a top-25 team was in 1996 at home against Texas A&M. ULL is fresh off last Saturday's 70-20 pounding of UL-Monroe, improving to 5-0 in road games.

Appalachian State will be forever-linked to its upset of Michigan back in 2007. There was no official pointspread on the game but App St's 34-32 win has been called the greatest upset in college football history. Appalachian State moved up to the FBS level in 2014 and has made quite an impression. Beginning in 2015, the Mountaineers have gone 54-12 (.818) and been to five straight bowls, winning all five. Scott Satterfield led App St through 2018 but then left for Louisville. Eliah Drinkwitz led the Mountaineers to a 12-1 record in 2019 and a second straight SBC championship but bolted to Missouri before the school's 31-17 win over UAB in the New Orleans Bowl. Shawn Clark coached App St in the bowl win and became the school's THIRD head coach in three seasons.

ULL has outstanding balance on offense, passing for 227.0 YPG and rushing for 217.3. QB Levi Lewis has thrown for 2,027 yards with 16 TDs and seven INTs, even though no player has more than 23 receptions. The running game is shared by Mitchell (656 yards / 6.0 YPC / 7 TDs) and Ragas (617 yards / 5.9 YPC / 7 TDs). The defense is solid, allowing 21.9 PPG (23rd) on 354.2 YPG (32nd). QB Zach Thomas is completing 66.7% for App St, throwing for 1,775 yards with 17 TDs and eight INTs, down from last year's numbers (2,718 yards with 28 TDs and six INTs). The Mountaineers are averaging 256.6 YPG on the ground (7th) on 5.6 YPC. Five players have more than 250 yards, led by Peoples (639 yards / 6.0 YPC / 6 TDs) and Harrington (595 yards / 5.6 YPC / 7 TDs). Like ULL, the team's receiving corps is very mediocre. However, the defense is VERY good, allowing just 18.0 PPG (15th) on 320.0 YPG (13th).

Here's the rub. ULL has had the better season but has already clinched a spot in the SBC championship game and will get a shot at Coastal Carolina, which is currently unbeaten. What's more, the Ragin' Cajuns are trying to avoid the distraction of Billy Napier's name surfacing as a potential candidate for higher-profile head coaching jobs. It's also impossible to ignore that as SBC foes, Appalachian St is 8-0 SU vs ULL. This marks Appalachian State's final home game of the season (has avoided COVID postponements) and would surely love to continue its domination of ULL. How about this? With ULL coming in as the AP's 20th-ranked team (No. 25 in the CFP), this marks the first time in school history that a top-25 team will come to Boone, North Carolina's Kidd Brewer Stadium. The Mountaineers are the small favorite and win "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM Game of the Month is on the LA Rams at 4:05 ET.

Entering Week 11, the Cards, Rams and Seahawks all were 6-3, tied atop the NFC West. Meanwhile, the defending NFC West champion 49ers (not to mention the defending NFC champs), were just 4-6 and 'enjoying' their bye week. Seattle won 28-21 at home over Arizona on Thursday, moving to 7-3 and dropping the Cards to 6-4. The Rams were in Tampa for MNF against the Bucs and needed a win to stay tied with Seattle and did just that with a 27-24 win. The 49ers travel to LA's SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Ca on Sunday, with the Rams hoping to avenge a 24-16 loss at San Francisco back in Week 6. 

The 49ers have struggled all season with significant injuries and Nick Mullens (67.3% for 1,390 yards with six TDs and six INTs) will again get the start at QB with Jimmy G still sidelined. Garoppolo threw three TD passes in that Week 6 win, all to receivers who are currently injured (tight end George Kittle), trying to return from an injury (wide receiver Deebo Samuel), or attempting to get reinstated from the COVID-19 list (wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk). Garoppolo is currently on injured reserve himself, with a high-ankle sprain. RB Mostert (772 yards on 5.6 YPC with eight TDs) has played just four games (303 yards), leaving McKinnon as the "best of the rest" with 294 yards on 3.8 YPC but does have five TDs, The 49ers are averaging only 11.,0 YPG on the ground (averaged 141.0 LY) and I already noted the receiving woes. After averaging 29.9 PPG last season, the 49ers are averaging just 23.8 PPG (20th) in 2020. 

Jared Goff led the Rams to a Super Bowl berth in the 2018 season by throwing for 4,688 yards with 32 TDs and just 12 INTs (191.1 QB rating) and while he threw for 4,638 last season, his TD/INT ratio was just 22-16 and his QB rating fell to 86.5 (Rams went from 13-3 to 9-7). He's on pace to throw for just over 4,500 yards in 2020 and his TD/INT ratio is 16-8 (QB rating of 95.5). The Rams said good-bye to RB Gurley and the running game has gone from averaging only 93.7 YPG (3.7 YPC) in 2019 to 124.5 YPG (4.2 YPC) this season. Henderson (491 yards on 4.5 YPC with four TDs) and Brown (367 yards on 4.4 YPC and five TDs) have shared the workload. Kupp had 11 catches vs Tampa (64 on the season) and Woods had 12 catches (54 on the season) plus the TE duo of Higbee and Everett have combined for 53 catches and four TDs. Led by two-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald, Los Angeles ranks second in scoring defense (19.2 PPG) and  1st in total defense (291.9 YPG). Goff came up HUGE in outplaying Brady on MNF (376 passing yards with three TDs) and enters this contest with THREE consecutive 300-yard games. As for the Rams D, it  recorded six sacks and two interceptions against Seattle's Russell Wilson, before limiting Tampa Bay's Tom Brady to just 216 passing yards with two interceptions. Hard to see them NOT containing Nick Mullens.

The Rams should be primed to break a three-game losing streak to the 49ers and why shouldn't they win here at SoFi Stadium, where they are 4-0 (3-1 ATS), while holding opponents to just 13.0 PPG. 

Good luck...Larry    

My 10* Signature LEGEND Play is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET.

The Carolina Panthers ended a five-game slide with a 20-0 win last Sunday against the Lions (win doesn't mean much after Detroit's Thanksgiving effort), while the Minnesota Vikings saw their three-game winning streak end with a last-minute 31-28 loss to the Cowboys (looks even worse off Dallas' Thanksgiving effort). The 4-7 Panthers travel to the 4-6 Vikings for a Sunday game between two teams not expecting to be playing postseason football in 2020. However, there is a good storyline to this contest, as Carolina QB Teddy Bridgewater has been cleared to play (he was a full participant in practice on Wednesday). This will mark his first start against his former team since he suffered a horrific left knee injury during the Vikings' 2016 training camp. The bad news for Carolina is that although RB Christian McCaffrey returned to practice Wednesday after missing the past two games with a shoulder injury, head coach Matt Rhule doesn't expect his star RB to play against the Vikings.

Bridgewater missed Carolina's 20-0 win last Sunday but despite the team's poor season, he's completed 72.1% for 2,552 yards with 13 TDs and seven INTs. However, with McCaffrey playing only three games, Carolina's running game has NOT given Bridgewater much help, averaging only 106.4 YPG (21st). RB Davis has a modest 449 rushing yards but does help the passing game, as he's tied for second on the team with 49 catches, matching WR Samuel. Samuel averages just 9.1 YPC but WRs Anderson (team-leading 71 catches) and Moore (46 catches / 18.8 YPC / 4 TDs) have had good seasons. Carolina's shutout last week was its first in FIVE years but the D has been middle-of-the-pack all season,  allowing 24.7 PPG to rank 15th (more later).

Mike Zimmer began as Minnesota's head coach back in 2015 and led the Vikings to an 11-5 season (wild card berth). He's taken Minnesota to the playoffs in both 2017 (13-3 / division champs) and again last season at 10-6 (another wild card). However, in the even numbered years, 2016 and '18, his teams have fallen short of the postseason, going 8-8 and 8-7-1, respectively. 2020 is destined to follow the same script. Minnesota had won three straight games plus covered SIX of seven before its loss to the sad-sack Cowboys. RB Dalvin Cook ran for 115 yards, the FIFTH time he had done so in his last seven contests. Cook now leads the NFL with 1,069 rushing yards on 5.3 YPC with 13 TDs. In his last seven games, he's averaged 136.6 YPG on the ground while scoring 10 of his 13 rushing TDs on the season. QB Kirk Cousins is oft-criticized but he completed 70.1% for 4,298 yards with 30 TDs and 10 INTs in his first season with the Vikings and then completed 69.1% for 3,603 yards with 26 TDs and 6 INTs last year, finishing with a career-high QB rating of 107.4. He has NOT been that good this year but is still completing 66.9% for 2,461 yards with 20 TDs and 11 INTs (102.7 QB rating). It was NOT good news that WR Thielen (49 catches  with 11 TDs) was placed on the COVID-19 list on Monday but he has yet to be ruled out for Sunday. He's been a mentor to rookie WR Jefferson, who has 45 catches with a team high 18.8 YPC average and four TDs. Both TEs contribute, as Rudolph and Smith (combined 36 catches) but Smith may miss a second straight game. The problem all season has been a Minnesota defense which is allowing 27.8 PPG.

Zimmer's a defensive coach and after he saw his young defense help lead the team to three straight wins by allowing 18.3 PPG, the 'stop unit' reverted to its previous form against the Cowboys. "I thought we were getting better defensively after the last three weeks but that didn't show against Dallas," coach Mike Zimmer said. However, speaking of defenses, I don't put too much credence in the Panthers' shutout of the Lions. Why? It's pretty simple. It was an amazing turnaround for a Panthers defense which had allowed 32.7 PPG over the team's previous four contests in which Carolina had forced just TWO punts! Thielen or no Thielen, the Vikings have a balanced offense that has scored 28 or more points in SIX of its 10 games in 2020. The Vikings enter this contest on a 23-11-3 ATS  run as a home favorite and Bridgewater's "return to Minnesota" ends badly for him and the Panthers.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on Kansas St at 7:00 ET.

Chris Klieman was working for Craig Bohl at North Dakota St and when Bohl left to take the Wyoming head coaching job, Klieman took over and won back-to-back FCS national championships in 2014 and '15, lost in the semis in 2016, and then won back-to-back again in 2017 and 2018. He left to take over at Kansas St in 2019, having gone 69-6 in a five-year span with FOUR national championships. He's the 35th head coach in Kansas St history and replaced the legendary Bill Snyder. The Wildcats went 8-5 in 2019, including a 48-41 win at Oklahoma, as a 23 1/2-point underdog. The Wildcats lost their season opener of 2020 at home to Arkansas St (35-31 as more than a two-TD favorite) but then beat the Sooners 38-35 as 28-point dogs, winning in Manhattan against Oklahoma for the first time since 1960. The win over the Sooners jump started a four-game winning streak but the Wildcats enter this game having lost THREE in a row, including last Saturday's 45-0 embarrassment at Iowa St.

The Baylor Bears saw games with La Tech (9/12) and with Houston (9/12) postponed (due to COVID-19 issues) but finally got on the field Sep 26 with a 47-14 home win over Dave Aranda, who was assistant head coach and DC at LSU from 2016-19, was hired at Baylor on January 16, 2020, replacing Matt Rhule who left to become the head coach of the Carolina Panthers. QB Charlie Brewer threw for 142 yards with a TD and versatile senior Trestan Ebner scored rushing and receiving TDs plus returned two kicks for scores (100 and 83 yards) in that win over Kansas. However, Baylor has lost FIVE straight games! Both teams 'limp' into this contest in Waco.

K-State hasn't won since a 55-14 defeat of Kansas helped the Wildcats reach No. 16 in the AP poll but their third straight loss, that 45-0 whitewashing at Iowa State (worst loss in five seasons) has them just 4-4. "Hopefully they're a little ticked off," head coach Chris Klieman said Monday when asked about his players' attitudes. "In the same respect, our leaders are tremendous leaders. We had a good week of practice last week after a tough loss to Oklahoma State. I can promise you that we'll have a good week of practice this week after a tough loss to Iowa State. The Wildcats have had little consistency on offense, with true freshmen, QB Will Howard and RB Deuce Vaughn, showing promise at times but they've also been very unimpressive in other games. Howard was pulled last week after going 3 of 9 for 32 yards with one INT and is completing just 52.8% on the season with more INTs (six) than TD passes (five). Vaughn is the team's leading rusher (just 415 yards) for a team averaging only 124.6 YPG on the ground.

Baylor's QB Brewer led the Bears into the Big 12 championship game last season (lost 30-23 in OT to Oklahoma) and to a Sugar Bowl berth (lost 26-14 to Georgia. However, the Bears were 11-3 on the season and Brewer entered 2020 having thrown for over 3,000 yards the previous two seasons, with 40 TD passes and 16 INTs. He's completing 62.0% this season but for just 1,278 yards with a modest 11 TDs and six INTs. Baylor doesn't have a RB with even 200 yards rushing, as the Bears are averaging 107.8 YPG on the ground.

Baylor has been in every game, beginning with a double-overtime loss at West Virginia and most recently in a one-point loss at Texas Tech on Nov. 14. FOUR of its five losses have been on the road, so some home cookin' just might help. That said, how can't Kansas St bounce-back after that 'ugly' 45-0 loss at Iowa St? Chris Klieman is a winner (see above) and the Wildcats are 15-6, 71% ATS as a road dog the last four-plus seasons. Also, don't forget that Baylor's LONE win in 2020 is over Kansas, which is 0-7 SU and ATS in 2020 and 6-89 SU in Big 12 play since 2010! Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM Game of the Year is on Colorado at 5:00 ET.

The Pac 12 quickly followed the Big Ten by deciding to postpone fall football but just like the Big Ten, the Pac 12 reversed field. While the Big Ten resumed in late October, the Pac 12 didn't get started until early November, leaving even less room if COVID-19 interfered. COVID-19 HAS interfered and this game between Colorado and San Diego St is one of the few instances in which a team has been able to reschedule another game on short notice. Colorado will play at home in Boulder against San Diego State in a non-conference football matchup on Saturday, taking the place of the previously scheduled Colorado at USC football game that was declared a no contest earlier in the week.

Brady Hoke was SDSU's head coach back in 2009 and 2010, going 9-4 with a bowl win in 2010 that got him the job at Michigan. Year One went well, as the Wolverines went 11-2 including a Sugar Bowl win. However, Michigan slipped to 8-5 and 7-6 the next two seasons, ending each with a bowl loss. After a 5-7 record in his fourth season, he was fired. He's back as SDSU's head coach this season (made a two-game stop as interim head coach for the Vols when Butch Jones was fired at Tennessee, and he was named head coach in January of 2020 after Rocky Long announced his retirement from coaching. Hoke took over a team that had won 10-plus games in FOUR of the previous five seasons but this year's Aztecs are just 3-2. SDSU owns a strong running game (246.0 YPG on 5.3 YPC) but QB Baker (57.9% for 591 yards with three TDs and three INTs) is mediocre at best (I'm being kind). As DC at SD State, Hoke helped build an excellent defense and this year's unit is allowing just 15.4 PPG (8th) on 270.0 YPG (3rd). However, I have more to say about that, in my 'closing argument!'

Karl Dorrell is Colorado's head coach and in his first year at the school. He was head coach at UCLA from 2003 to 2007 and led the Bruins to FIVE bowl appearances in five seasons, although he did not coach in the fifth after he was fired in December 2007. Truth is, his overall record at UCLA was only 35–27. Dorrell was named the 27th full time head coach at Colorado when Mel Tuckers bolted after one season for Michigan St. Tucker took over from Mike MacIntyre, so Dorrell is Colorado's THIRD head coach in as many seasons. The Buffs have played just TWO games but have beaten UCLA 48-42 as a home dog and Stanford 35-32 as a road dog. QB Noyer is completing 63.6% for 512 yards with three TDs and one INT plus has run for 100 yards with three TDs. RB Broussard has 308 yards on 5.3 YPC with three TDs, as the Buffs run for 220.5 YPG with eight TDs. The defense has allowed 37.0 PPG but the SD St offense leaves MUCH to be desired!

Let's look closer at SD State, which has lost 28-17 at home to San Jose St (now 4-0) as a 10-point favorite and 26-21 at Nevada (now 5-0) as a 1 1/2-point favorite. The Aztecs' wins have come over 0-4 UNLV, 1-4 Utah St (won its first game on Thanksgiving) and 2-3 Hawaii. This game was put together quickly and both teams will have VERY little prep time but San Diego St is playing on the road for the FOURTH time in five weeks, Colorado takes the field for the first time since Nov 14. It's a PERFECT STORM for the Buffs!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on Boston College at 4:00 ET.

Louisville had to replace Heisman-winner Lamar Jackson after the 2018 season (he won the Heisman in 2017) and the Cardinals went from 8-5 to 2-10. However, Scott Satterfield came to the rescue for the start of the 2019 season. He had led Appalachian St to four straight bowl bids from 2015-18, going 40-11 (.784), overall. Satterfield restored some glory to the program in 2019, as Louisville had a six-game improvement by going 8-5 (best turnaround by a Power-5 school), including a 38-28 bowl win over Miss St. The Cardinals were unranked in the AP's preseason poll but were solid in their season-opening 35-21 win. That win saw Louisville rise to No. 18 in the AP poll but Louisville then lost FOUR in a row. The Cardinals are 2-2 in their last four games but the wins have come over 2-6 Florida St and 1-8 Syracuse

Steve Addazio coached Boston College to SIX bowl appearances in his seven seasons but never won more than SEVEN games in any season. On December 1, 2019 following the conclusion of a 6-6 regular season, Boston College fired him (career record at BC was 44-44). Jeff Hafley was hired to be the co-defensive coordinator at Ohio State and quickly established himself as one of the best recruiters in the country. He was hired to be the head coach at Boston College after the firing of Addazio. Boston College is 5-4 (4-4 in the ACC) in Hafley's first season and takes the field at home vs Louisville for the first time since a 45-31 loss to No. 2 Notre Dame on Nov 14.

Louisville QB Cunningham has completed 63.7% for 2,126 yards with 16 TDs and 11 INTS plus has run for 438 yards with six TDs. RB Hawkins has had a solid season (822 yards on 6.2 YPC with seven TDs) but WR Atwal, after catching 70 balls for 18.2 YPC with 12 TDs last season, has only 41 catches for 13.3 YPC with six TDs. BC's Joe Jurkovec has done a nice job at QB, throwing for 2,355 yards with 17 TDs and five INTs. He's done that despite the BC running game averaging only 104.2 YPG on 3.8 YPC.

I believe with Boston College that the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. The Eagles did a good job 'hanging around' vs Notre Dame (lost by 14 getting 13 1/2-points) and of course, led then No. 1 Clemson in "Death Valley" 26-13 at the half before losing 34-28. Boston College opened 2-0 but has since alternated wins and losses. With a off week between the team's loss to ND and this one, Boston College is DUE to win here and at this "bargain of a price," a "W" means a cover. Satterfield's second season at Louisville has been a HUGE disappointment and NOTHING changes here!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Stanford at 4:30 ET.

It's simply called the "Big Game." Cal and Stanford first met in 1892 and Stanford leads the all-time series 59-44-10. However, this year's version of the "Big Game" will be played on a Friday for the first time in its history. In another first, both schools enter winless, although that's clearly due to the fact that each school has played just TWO games.

David Shaw was named Stanford's head coach in January of 2011, being promoted after Jim Harbaugh left to become head coach of the NFL's San Francisco 49ers. From 2011 through 2018, Shaw led the Cardinal to EIGHT consecutive bowl games, winning 10-plus games in FIVE of those seasons. However, Stanford fell to 4-8 in 2019.  Justin Wilcox was named Cal's head coach in January of 2017 and the Bears finished just 5-7 in his first season. However, the Bears went 7–6 during Wilcox's second year in 2018, upsetting No. 15 Washington and defeating USC 15–14 at the Coliseum in Los Angeles to snap a 14-year losing streak to the Trojans. The Bears lost 10–7 in overtime to TCU in the 2018 Cheez-It Bowl. The Bears improved to 8–5 record in 2019, achieving their highest ranking since 2009 when they were ranked No. 15 after a 4–0 start to the season.. Maybe the biggest win of Wilcox's short tenure came when Cal beat Stanford 24-20 in the Big Game last November, for the first time since 2009!

Both teams have dealt with cancellations because of the coronavirus, the Cardinal losing out on playing last week's scheduled home game with Washington State while the Golden Bears had their home opener against Washington canceled on Nov 7. Stanford QB Davis Mills had to sit out the opener at Oregon because of a testing mistake but returned to complete 31 of 56 for 327 yards with one TD and not a single INT in his 56 attempts in a 35-32 home loss to Colorado on Nov 14. RBs Peat (114 yards on 10.4 YPC) and Jones (109 yards on 3.8 YPC but with three TDs) give the Stanford offense some balance, with the Cardinal averaging 405.YPG after two contests. However, the defense is a concern, allowing 35. points in each of the team's two games, so far.

Cal QB Garbers played well last season (1,712 yards with 14 TDs and just three INTs) but has thrown for a modest 433 yards in two games with as many INTs (three) as TDs (three). Cal's offense has NO balance, averaging a woeful 89.0 YPG on the ground on 2.7 YPC. Cal's averaging just 18.5 PPG on 303.5 YPG plus the Golden Bears D has been no better than Stanford's, allowing 32.5 PPG.

Cal took home the coveted "Axe" trophy last season for the first time in a decade but the Cardinal are 8-1 in the Big Game under 10th-year head coach David Shaw. Stanford senior offensive lineman Foster Sarell still feels the sting of last year's defeat. "The standard that's been set here, we just beat Cal," he said. "So losing to them it hurt me pretty good. ... We've got to reverse this deal." Both teams are vulnerable of the defensive side of the ball but Stanford is a MUCH better offensive team plus has not thrown a single interception in 82 pass attempts, while allowing just ONE sack plus has also lost just ONE fumble. "Revenge" from last season works perfectly in this one!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on North Carolina at 3:30 ET.

8-0 Notre Dame owns the nation's longest winning streak at 14 in a row and comes off a bye week ranked No. 2 in both the current AP poll and the 1st CFP standings of the 2020 season. The Fighting Irish control their own destiny but as head coach Chip Kelly said, "There's a lot of work left for this football team." With three games remaining, Notre Dame (7-0 in the ACC) still has work to do to qualify for the ACC championship game. Clemson and Miami, both with one loss, are in the mix, while No. 25 North Carolina (6-2 all in the ACC) can stay in contention by defeating the Irish.

Notre Dame QB Ian Book has silenced any critics this season by completing 62.0% for 1,818 yards with 11 TDs and just one INT. He's added 364 yards on the ground (4.9 YPC) and six TDs. He'll take the field at Chapel Hill with a 28-3 record as Notre Dame's starting QB. RB Williams has 777 yards rushing on 5.7 YPC for a running game that averages 233.5 YPG. Notre Dame is averaging 462.1 YPG and 37.6 PPG (12th), which works well with a defense allowing just 16.6 PPG (11th).

However, Notre Dame's 462.1 YPG is about 100 YPG less than North Carolina's average of 563.4 YPG. The Tar Heels are averaging 43.1 PPG (10th) led by QB Howell, who completes 67.7% for 2,631 yards with 23 TDs and just six INTs. North Carolina averages 233.5 YPG on the ground (exact match of ND), led by the terrific RB duo of Williams (868 yards on 7.2 YPC with 15 TDs) and Carter (807 yards on 7.0 YPC with four TDs). The problem all season for Mack Brown's team is a defense allowing 30.8 PPG, two TDs more than Notre Dame's 'stop unit!'

Both teams last played on Nov 14, with Notre Dame following its 47-40 (2-OT) win over then-No. 1 Clemson by winning 45-31 at Boston College. That same day, North Carolina wiped out a 21-point second-half deficit to overcome visiting Wake Forest 59-53, as Howell passed for a school-record 550 yards. However, North Carolina's D allowed 606 yards in yielding those 53 points. However, I believe North Carolina can and WILL trade points with Notre Dame, as we saw Clemson backup Uiagalelei do just that by throwing for 439 yards without an INT in 44 attempts, AT South Bend no less! This marks North Carolina's final ACC regular season home game and I believe Notre Dame's perfect season ends right here! Take the points but expect an OUTRIGHT win, just like I called last weekend with Northwestern over Wisconsin. Home dog barks loudly once again!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye-Opener is on Texas at 12:00 ET.

No. 15 Iowa State is 6-2 overall, including 6-1 in Big 12 play to sit atop the conference (Cyclones are 6-1 for the first time in program history). Iowa St heads to Austin on the heels of its impressive 45-0 win at home over Kansas State, while No. 20 Texas is 5-2 (4-2 in Big 12 play) is riding a three-game winning streak but hasn't played since Nov 7, as the Longhorns' Nov 21 game at Kansas was postponed to Dec 12 because of positive COVID-19 tests within the Jayhawks' program. I win by Iowa St all but assures the Cyclones a spot in the Big 12 championship game but note that if Texas wins its final three games against Iowa State, Dec 5 at Kansas State and the rescheduled game at Kansas, the Longhorns WILL clinch a berth in the Big 12 title game. Fair to say there is a lot on the line in this "high noon" showdown!

Iowa St's Brock Purdy threw for 3,982 yards with 27 TDs and nine INTs last season but hasn't come close to matching those numbers in 2020 (1,713 yards with 13 TDs and six INTs). However, Iowa State boasts the NCAA's leading rusher in Breece Hall (1,169 / 6.5 YPC / 15 TDs), who has rushed for more than 100 yards in ALL eight games, a stat that's also No. 1 nationally. The Cyclones are averaging 34.4 PPG (31st() and allowing 23.4 PPG (30th) a pretty sweet 'daily double.'

Texas QB Sam Ehlinger has completed 147-of-250 passes (58.8 percent) for 1,834 yards and 22 TDs with just five INTs. He is also the team leader with 323 rushing yards and seven TDs. His 178 points responsible for are the second-most in the nation this season. Three RBs have combined for 765 yards, as Texas averages a respectable 167.3 YPG on the ground, averaging 4.5 YPC. The Texas offense is producing 40.4 PPG (15th) but its defense allows 29.7 PPG (67th).

Here's the bottom line. Iowa State hasn't won in Austin since 2010 and has beaten Texas just THREE times in 17 all-time games. Iowa State hasn't won a conference title since 1912 (does the Missouri Valley championship really count?) and has NEVER played in a conference championship game. Playing Iowa St when it has to WIN to cover here in Austin, makes NO sense. "The Eyes of Texas are upon me!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFC 'Least' Battle 4 First is on the Dal Cowboys at 4:30 ET.

Dallas plays its annual Thanksgiving Day game in 2020 against Washington and while both teams come in a poor 3-7 on the season, the winner will own first place in the cynically-named "NFC Least!" That is until Monday, when the 3-6-1 Eagles will have a chance to regain the division lead if they can upset the Seahawks. Both Teams will take the field with their Opening Day starter at QB on the sidelines.

Washington opened the season with Dwayne Haskins at QB, before he lost his job to Kyle Allen. Then Allen was replaced in a Week 9 game against the Giants by Alex Smith, who was the team's former starter before a brutal leg injury almost ended his career and even his life! Smith is without a doubt one of NFL 2020's great "feel-good" stories. Smith passed for 325 yards in relief of Allen in that 23-20 loss vs the Giants but threw THREE interceptions. He then passed for 390 yards in a 30-27 loss to the Lions the following week but just FOUR days after the second anniversary of an injury that threatened his life (this past Sunday), Smith led Washington to a 20-9 win over Cincinnati. Smith threw for just 166 yards vs the Bengals (zero TDs and zero INTs) but the "W" had to feel VERY good! Washington is averaging just 99.1 YPG on the ground but rookie Antonio Gibson ran for 94 yards last week (note: he had season-high 128 in the team's 25-3 over Dallas in Week 7) and now has 530 yards on the season with eight TDs (he also has 27 catches). WR Terry McLaurin is on pace for close to 100 catches (62 catches / 14.0 YPC / 3 TDs), TE Thomas has 30 catches (3 TDs) and RB McKissic has added 44 receptions. The Washington defense is allowing 315.8 YPG (6th-best) and a modest 22.7 PPG.

Dallas has a 'feel good" story of its own last Sunday, as Andy Dalton had three TD passes, including the game-winner with 1:37 left in the game, as the Cowboys snapped a four-game losing streak with a 31-28 win at Minnesota (Vikings entered on a three-game winning streak plus a 6-1 ATS run). It was Dalton's first game since Oct 25, when Washington linebacker Jon Bostic knocked him out of a 25-3 loss in the third quarter with a late hit to the helmet as Dalton slid to end a scramble. A battle with COVID-19 kept Dalton on the sidelines as Dallas continued to cycle through third and fourth-string quarterbacks with little success. The Cowboys offense that shriveled up and died when Dak Prescott ended his season with a frightening leg injury in Week 5. Prescott had averaged over 400 YPG passing through four weeks, with nine TDs and three INTs. However, Dallas finally displayed a balanced offense, as Elliott (675 yards on 3.9 YPC with 5 TDs) ran for more than 100 yards (103) for the first time all season with Dallas running for 180 yards, while passing for 196. More importantly, the team's four TDs touchdowns were TWICE as many as the Cowboys had produced during their four-game skid. Dalton has plenty of targets, with WRs like Cooper (65 catches / 2 TDs), Rookie Lamb (48 catches / 4 TDs) and Gallup (31 catches / team-high 16.0 YPC) plus TE Schultz (39 catches / 3 TDs).

Dallas MUST play better defense, as the Cowboys are allowing an NFL-high 31.8 PPG but Washington enters on a six-game road losing streak (0-4 in 2020) and is just 2-10 on the road since the start of 2019. Let me add that Washington has won just ONE of its last eight Thanksgiving games with Dallas and for all its recent woes, the Cowboys are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 NFC East contests. Dallas gets some revenge from that Week 7 loss in Washington and moves to 4-7, before serving as Seattle 'cheerleaders' Monday night in Philly.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the TB Bucs at 8:15 ET.

The 6-3 Los Angeles Rams need a win to keep pace with the 7-3 Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West and the 7-3 Tampa Bay Bucs need a win to stay just a half-game back of the 8-2 Saints in the NFC South. Tampa Bay has a lot of prime-time exposure with the addition of TB-12 but tonight's game "main attraction" could be two of the NFL's best defenses. Led by  two-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald (nine sacks), Los Angeles ranks second in both scoring defense (18.7 PPG) and total defense (296.4 YPG), while also ranking third in passing defense (199.7 YPG) and fifth in rushing defense (96.8 YPG). Tampa Bay's "stop unit" ain't bad themselves, ranking first in rushing defense (76.6 YPG) and third in total defense (300.3 YPG). Tampa Bay is eighth in scoring defense (22.6 PPG) and ninth in passing defense (223.7 YPG).

Jared Goff led the Rams to a Super Bowl berth in the 2018 season by throwing fir 4,688 yards with 32 TDs and just 12 INTs (191.1 QB rating) and while he threw for 4,638 last season, his TD/INT ratio was just 22-16 and his QB rating fell to 86.5 (Rams went from 13-3 to 9-7). He's on pace to throw for just over 4,300 yards in 2020 and his TD/INT ratio is 13-6 (QB rating of 94.9). The Rams said good-bye to RB Gurley and the running game has gone from averaging only 93.7 YPG (3.7 YPC) in 2019 to 134.2 YPG (4.3 YPC) this season. Henderson (486 yards on 4.8 YPC with four TDs) and Brown (347 yards on 4.3 YPC and five TDs) have shared the workload. Kupp (53 catches / 2 TDs) and Woods (42 catches / 4 TDs) are quality WRs and the TE duo of Higbee and Everett have combined for 45 catches and four TDs.

Brady has completed 66.0% for 2,739 yards with 23 TDs and seven INTs and RB Jones has 730 rushing yards on 5.1 YPC on 5.1 YPC with five TDs, after running for a career-high 192 yards last Sunday. Brady has plenty of targets, in WRs Evans (40 catches / 8 TDs) and Miller (27 catches / 2 TDs) and TE Gronk (29 catches / 4 TDs), who has 17 catches and all four TDs in his last five games. Then there has been the addition of the controversial Antonio Brown (10 catches in two games), who when "not in trouble," caught 100-plus passes for six consecutive seasons for Pittsburgh (2013-18) with 67 TD receptions!

Both teams are hoping to win their respective divisions but the winner of this game also takes a step toward a wild card spot. The Bucs entered the week trailing the Saints by a half game in the NFC South but realistically it’s a game and a half because New Orleans owns the first head-to-head tiebreaker (2-0 this season vs Tampa). Speaking of those two games with the Saints, Brady has thrown FIVE of his seven INTs on the season in them, while his TD/INT ratio in Tampa Bay's other eight games is 21-2, with the Bucs going 7-1. Yes, the Bucs were embarrassed by the Saints at home but they are 3-0 in their other three home games, averaging 35.7 PPG. The Bucs already have matched their win total from 2019, but that was never the goal. You don’t sign a 43-year-old Brady, trade for tight end Rob Gronkowski and add receiver Antonio Brown, and running backs Leonard Fournette and LeSean McCoy as free agents unless it’s Super Bowl or bust. Lay the points with Tampa Bay.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* NFL Rivalry Rout is on the KC Chiefs at 8:20 ET.

SNF features a classic AFL rivalry, the Chiefs and Raiders. The defending champs are 8-1 and are coming off a bye to visit Las Vegas, where they will take on the 6-3 Raiders. The Raiders shocked the Chiefs 40-32 at Kansas City back in Week 5, as 11-point underdogs. The Raiders got crushed 45-20 at home by the Bucs in their next game but enter this contest on a 3-0 SU & ATS run. Mahomes is completing 66.9% for 2,687 yards with 25 TDs and just one INT (115.9 QB rating) but Carr is not far behind, completing 69.3% for 2,56 yards with 16 TDs and just two INTs (107.4 QB rating).

However, hanging over the game is COVID-19 issues. This paragraph is copied directly from a game preview to give the info its proper respect. The Raiders had their Oct 25 prime time game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers shifted to the afternoon when offensive tackle Trent Brown came down with the virus and the entire starting offensive line was forced into quarantine until the morning of the game because of their high-risk contact with Brown. Tampa Bay cruised to a 45-20 victory. Following a positive test by starting defensive end Clelin Ferrell on Tuesday, seven more Raiders defensive players were put on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Wednesday - safety Johnathan Abram, defensive tackles Maliek Collins, Johnathan Hankins and Kendal Vickers, defensive back Isaiah Johnson, defensive end Arden Key and practice squad defensive end David Irving. They join safety Lamarcus Joyner, previously identified as a close contact of Ferrell, Brown and linebacker Cory Littleton, who was placed on the list last week. Ferrell is likely out for Sunday night's game as is Brown, who isn't expected back until next week. But the other players will be eligible to play Sunday, as long as they continue to test negative. Kansas City has its own COVID-19 issues with both starting offensive tackles, Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz, as well as backup Martinas Rankin going on the COVID list earlier this week after being in close contact with someone who tested positive. All could play Sunday, barring a positive test result.

As noted above, Mahomes is having a superb season. Rookie RB Edwards-Helaire 'exploded' on the scene in Week 1 with 138 yards but he's had just one 100-yard game since. He has 586 yards on 4.7 YPC with two TDs on the season. The KC offense revolves around Mahomes and his spectacular group of receivers. Kelce is the best TE in the game and leads with 58 catches and six TDs. WR Hill is a game-changer/game-breaker with 44 catches and nine TDs (one rushing TD, as well). The WR trio of Hardeman, Watkins and Robinson have combined for 67 catches and five TDs. On the defensive side of the ball, KC's improvement helped them win the Super Bowl last season and make them one of the favorites to possibly win again in 2020. KC allowed 405.5 YPG (second-worst in the NFL) in 2018, while allowing 26.3 PPG. However, KC allowed just 19.3 PPG in 2019 and here in 2020, is allowing 20.3 PPG.

Carr's having a career-season and second-year RB Josh Jacobs has proven his rookie season was no fluke (1,150 yards on 4.8 YPC with 7 TDs in 13 games). Jacobs may be averaging a modest 3.8 YPC but he's run for 700 yards with eight TDs plus has 23 catches (just 20 all of last season). TE Waller may not be Kelce (just yet, anyway) but he has 53 catches and four TDs. WR Renfrow has 29 catches but the team's "big play" receiver is Agholor who has made his 18 catches count, averaging 19.7 YPC with five TDs.

Here's the rub. Gruden's defense has allowed 26.8 PPG on the season. Ferrell is likely out for Sunday night's game as is Brown, who isn't expected back until next week. The other players will be eligible to play Sunday, as long as they continue to test negative. However, those players will be limited to virtual practices and meetings until then and won't be allowed on the practice field together. Not exactly the best way to get your defense prepared for reigning Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes and Co. KC has a HUGE "revenge motive" from the Raiders' 40-32 in their first meeting on back on Oct 11, the team's LONE loss in its last 18 games (including the postseason) in 18 games (17-1) plus then there is ONE more important stat. KC head coach Andy Reid is 18-3 SU in regular-season games after a bye during his 22 seasons as a head coach! Also, despite the Raiders' win at KC earlier this season, they've won just TWO of their last 11 against the Chiefs since 2015. One closing thought. Yes, KC has a 'number' to cover but the well-rested Chiefs check in on a 23-8 ATS run as an away favorite. Lay it!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner of the Month is on the Green Bay Packers at 4:25 ET.

The Packers opened the season 4-0 SU & ATS and while it hasn't been a smooth ride, Green Bay 7-2 is tied with New Orleans for the NFC' best record (note: San Francisco, Green Bay and New Orleans were all 13-3 last season, with the 49ers and Packers getting the No. 1 and No, 2 seeds, respectively due to tiebreakers). QB Aaron Rodgers has helped steer the Packers, despite various injuries to some of the team's most reliable playmakers. The Colts made a big 'splash' in the offseason by singing Philip Rivers as a free agent but the key to Indy's 6-3 record (tied with Tennessee atop the AFC South) has been a defense that ranks first in total yards (290.4 per game) and 4th in scoring (19.7 PPG). These two first place clubs square off Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Rodgers is again at "the top of his game," completing 67.8% for 2,578 yards for 2,578 yards with 26 TDs and just three INTs (116.4 QB rating). RB Jones has dealt with injuries (he's missed two games) but he has 493 rushing yards on 4.8 YPC with five TDs, while catching 28 passes with two more TDs. WR Davante Adams missed practice Wednesday after tweaking a previously balky ankle in a Week 10 home win against Jacksonville, but indications are he will play against the Colts. In his seven games he's caught 61 balls with nine TDs on the season, after 38 catches with seven TDs in his last four games. Fellow WR Valdez-Scantling has a modest 22 catches (he hasn't missed a game) but he's averaging 21.0 YPC with four TDs. TE Tonyan has 27 catches and five TDs. Green Bay is averaging 30.8 PPG, with only Seattle and KC (each at 31.8 PPG) scoring more. The defense has been middle-of-the-pack, allowing 24.9 PPG.

Rivers has provided a steady hand at QB but while he's completing 68.7% for 2,395 yards but his TD/INT ratio is a modest 11-7. Big things were expected from Wisconsin rookie Jonathan Taylor but he's got a modest 428 rushing yards on 3.8 YPC with four TDs. The Indy running game is averaging only 105.8 YPG on 3.8 YPC. Fellow RB Hines has just 177 yards on the ground but leads the team with 33 catches and with four TD receptions. WR Hilton has been banged up on-and-off this season and  checks in with just 26 catches and not a single TD catch. WR Pascal has 28 catches (2 TDs) and TE Alie-Cox adds 20 catches and two TDs. As noted above, the Colts are where they are because of their D (see above for a reminder).

The Colts have beaten Green Bay's fellow NFC North 'partners' (Chicago, Detroit and Minnesota) but Green Bay is a 'horse of a different color!' The Packers are off an uninspiring 24-20 over hapless Jacksonville but that so-so effort should have them VERY focused on this game. Green Bay can 'sniff' the NFC's No. 1 seed, as after the Colts, Green Bay faces just ONE team with a current winning record (Titans in Week 16) over its final six games. As for the Colts, they come off a HUGE win at Tennessee in Week 10, moving them into a tie atop the AFC South with the Titans. Indy's defense gets a real test against Rodgers and Co plus just could be peeking ahead to next week's home game with the Titans. I view this as the perfect situation for a Green By win. That's my bet!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AFC North Game of the Year is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET.

Baltimore was just 2-2 through the first four games of the 2019 season but the Ravens would win their final 12 games, covering NINE of their last 10. QB Lamar Jackson was league MVP, posting a 113.3 QB rating (36-6 ratio) while rushing for 1,206 yards (6.9 YPC / 7 TDs), which set a single-record for QBs. Baltimore set a single season record for team rushing yards and became the first team since at least 1950 to average 200-plus pass YPG (201.6) and 200-plus rush YPG (206) in the same season. The D was not quite in the class of the Ray Lewis era units but the Ravens ranked 3rd in points allowed (17.6 PPG) and 4th in yards allowed (300.6 YPG). However, the Ravens were unceremoniously bounced from the playoffs last season, losing 28-12 at home to the Titans as 10-point favorites.

Ryan Tannehill took over at QB for Mariota midway through the 2019 season and was a steady hand during the Titans' strong regular season finish and their playoff run. That playoff run saw them win at New England and Baltimore before losing at KC in the AFC championship game. However, most thought of Tannehill as little more than a "game-manager," with the Tennessee offense relying on RB Derrick Henry. That's changed in 2020, as Tannehill has completed 64.8% for 2,128 yards with 20 TDs and three INTs (106.9 QB rating). Henry is having another strong season, running for 946 yards on 4.7 YPC with eight TDs. That's all well and fine but after opening 5-0, the Titans have lost THREE of their last four. While Tannehill's numbers on the season remain very good, he's barely completed 50% of his passes (25 of 48) for an average of just 152.5 YPG in the team's last two games. He had completed 67.4% of his passes in his first seven games, averaging 244.0 YPG through the air. The Tennessee defense is also allowing almost SIX points per game more than last season, 26.1-to-20.7.

The Ravens opened the season 5-1, with their lone loss coming to the defending champion Chiefs. However, Baltimore has has lost TWO of its last three, falling at home to Pittsburgh 28-24 in Week 8 and 23-17 at New England in Week 10. Jackson is playing well, completing 64.0% for 1,762 yards with 14 TDs and five INTs, while again leading the team in rushing with 524 yards on 5.8 YPC with three TDs. The running game is averaging a healthy 164.0 YPG but that's down from the team's NFL record 206.0 YPG last season, RB Ingram joined Jackson as a 1,000-yard rusher in 2019 but he has just 230 yards so far this season, as Edwards (370 yards) and Dobbins (310 yards) join him as a rotating three-back attack. WR Brown has 32 catches, while the trio of Snead, Boykin and Duvernoy have combined for 53 catches. TE Andrews has a team-highs in catches (33) and TD receptions (six). The Baltimore D is allowing  18.3 PPG (17.6 LY) on 323.0 YPG (330.6 LY).

The Ravens HAVE to win this one and the extra bonus of "playoff revenge" makes me like the play even more. Let me review that playoff game from last year. Baltimore outgained Tennessee 530-to-300 in yards and 29-15 in FDs. Jackson passed for 365 yards and ran for 143 but coughed up THREE turnovers and was 0 of 4 on fourth down attempts. If the Ravens can't win here, their season is effectively over.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Weekend Wipeout Game of the Month is on NC State at 7:30 ET.

The Liberty football program was competing in Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) but announced it would start a transition to the top level of NCAA football in July 2017. The Flames became a provisional FBS member in 2018, and became a full FBS member with bowl eligibility in 2019. Hugh Freeze 'exploded' on the scene when he led Arkansas St to a 10-2 record in his first season as a head coach back in 2011. He quickly 'jumped ship' to Ole Miss and led the Rebels to four straight bowl appearances (3-1), including his 2015 team going 10-3 after a Sugar Bowl win (Rebels finished 10th in the final AP poll. However, trouble was brewing in Oxford over recruiting and academic violations committed under both Freeze and his predecessor, Houston Nutt. After a 5-7 season in 2016, he was let go. He was named head coach of the Liberty Flames football team on December 7, 2018 and in his first season Liberty went 8-5, including a 23-26 Cure Bowl win over Ga Southern. This year's team is 8-0 and entered the AP top-25 for the first time in school history back on Nov 1. The Flames will visit NC State on Saturday, ranked No. 21 in the latest poll.

Dave Doeren is in his 8th season at NC State and after a 3-9 'rookie' year,' led the Wolfpack to FIVE straight winning seasons and bowl berths (3-2). NC St opened 4-2 in 2019 but lost its final SIX games (also 0-6 ATS), finishing 4-8. TEN starters returned on offense in 2020, so it was expected that NC St's PPG (just 22.1 last season) would significantly improve in 2020. After all, the Wolfpack averaged 30-plus PGG in FOUR of the five seasons during their bowl streak (2014-18). NC State's offense has improved (up to 33.5 PPG) but its defense allows 33.9 PPG. The Wolfpack welcome the Flames to Carter-Finley Stadium with a 5-3 record.

Liberty is led by dual-threat QB Malik Willis who has completed 67.8% for 1,645 yards with 15 TDs and just ONE interception. He is also the team's leading rusher with 700 yards on 7.1 YPC with nine TDs. Three RBs chip in between 370 and 534 yards, giving the Flames a running game averaging 254.5 YPB on 5.7 YPC. Four WRs have between 15 and 10 receptions, while 10 different players have caught TD passes. Liberty's defense is allowing 22.1 PPG, plenty good enough when the offense is averaging 40.5 PPG (Flames are 6-2 ATS).

Devin Leary was the returning QB for NC State but had COVID issues early on and then a broken leg ended his season. Bailey Hockman (started early in the season for Leary) has again taken over and in the last two games, a 44-41 loss to Miami-Fl and a 38-22 win over Florida St, he's thrown for 513 yards with five TDs and two INTs. Anytime your quarterback is playing well, I don't care what level of football you're playing, you've got a chance to be really good," head coach Doeren said. "He's played at a high level for two weeks, so we're very excited." Doeren also had to be happy with WR Thayer Thomas' career-high 11 catches and 135 yards with two TDs against FSU. The running game produces about half of what Liberty does (133.8 YPG on 3.7 YPC) and remember that Wolfpack D is allowing 33.9 PPG.

Hugh Freeze said it's important to stay the course, realizing that Liberty might be a targeted team. "Just don't change. Don't change anything," he said. "Remember why you're having the success." That said, SEVEN of Liberty's eight wins have come over two FCS schools, as well as 3-6 Western Ky, 0-4 FIU, 2-8 UL-Monroe, 1-7 Syracuse and 2-6 Southern Miss. The team's "marquee win" has come over 4-4 Va Tech 38-35 in a 'miracle' finish. Tech has been ravaged by COVID-19 problems and was a 17-point favorite in that game. Liberty's perfect season ends right here!

Good luck...Larry

My CFB 9* Ultimate Underdog is on Northwestern at 7:30 ET.

Paul Chyrst was hired at Wisconsin in 2015, after leading Pitt to three straight bowls from 2012-14 but note his overall record was only 19-19. He led the Badgers to FIVE straight bowl games, winning the first four, before losing 28-27 to Oregon in last season's Rose Bowl. His overall record with Wisconsin is 52-16 (.765) entering 2020. Pat Fitzgerald played at Northwestern and was an assistant coach from 2001-05 until his promotion to head coach after the unexpected death of Randy Walker in June 2006. He was just 10-14 in his first two seasons but then led the Wildcats to NINE bowl in the next 12 years, winning 10 games in 2012, 2015 and 2018. Northwestern fell to just 3-9 last season but the Wildcats are off to a 40-0 stat in the Big Ten in 2020, for the first time since 1996.

Wisconsin expected that RB Jonathan Taylor (2,003 rushing yards in 2019) would leave a year early for the NFL but Paul Chryst couldn't have planned for the loss of QB Jack Coan (69.6% / 2,727 yards / 18 TDs and just five INTs in 2019) to a foot injury on Oct 10. However, redshirt freshman Graham Mertz got the start on Oct 23 vs Illinois and completed 20 of 21 passes for 248 yards with five TDs and no INTs in the Badgers 45-7 rout. Then came a COVID-19 outbreak that included both Mertz and head coach Chryst. Wisconsin's next two games were canceled but the Badgers returned to play last Saturday at Michigan and routed the Wolverines 49-11. Mertz was pretty average vs Michigan (12 of 22 for only 127 yards with two TDs and zero INTs) but Wisconsin ran all over Michigan (341 rushing yards on 6.7 YPC) and after two early INTs by the defense set up two quicks TDs, the game was never in doubt.

Northwestern QB Ramsey has been OK but hardly special (65.8% for 723 yards with six TDs and four INTs). The running game averages 174.0 PPG, almost 100 yards less than Wisconsin's 261.5 YPG on 5.0 YPC.  In the first five seasons of the "Chryst era" at Wisconsin, his 'stop units' have allowed 13.7, 15.6, 13.9, 22.6 and 16.9 PPG. It's been just two games in 2020 but Wisconsin is No. 1 in scoring D (9.0 PPG) and No. 1 in total D (218.5 YPG). That said, don't dismiss the Northwestern D, which is allowing 14.0 PPG (7th) on 301.8 YPG (4th).

I'm still not quite sure how good Wisconsin really is because Illinois is an awful team and Harbaugh's Michigan team is a joke! How good is Mertz, really? Northwestern's graduate transfer Peyton Ramsey had his best game for the Wildcats, throwing for three TDs and 212 yards at Purdue and history tells us that the Wildcats have been especially successful against the Badgers at home, winning FIVE of the past six matchups at Ryan Field. This game has earned the title of a de facto Big Ten championship semifinal, with the Wildcats (4-0) and Badgers (2-0) tied for first place in the division and the winner controlling its own destiny to play next month for the conference title at Indianapolis. Can the Wildcats pull the upset? I thinks so but will be SURE to take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Revenge Rout is on UCF at 3:30 ET.

Luke Fickel was an assistant at Ohio St from 2002-16 but on December 10, 2016, was named as the 39th head coach of the University of Cincinnati, taking the place of the resigning Tommy Tuberville. Fickell's Bearcats went just 4-8 in his first season but 2018 would be a historic turnaround for the program, as Cincy finished with an 11-2 record and a 35-31 victory in the Military Bowl over Va Tech. Fickell was named AAC Coach of the Year for the 2018 season, which was only the third 11-win season in UC history. He led the team to another 11-win season in 2019. The Bearcats reeled off NINE straight wins after falling to Ohio State in the second game of the year but fell two straight weeks to Memphis, in the final regular season game and in the conference championship game. However, for the second straight year, Cincinnati won its bowl game over an ACC team, crushing Boston College 38-6 in the Birmingham Bowl. The Bearcats opened the 2020 season ranked 9th in the AP's preseason poll and at 7-0 are up to No. 7 as Cincinnati begins a three-game road stretch that will determine the Bearcats' conference, bowl and even potential playoff fate. It starts with Saturday's game in Orlando against unranked but dangerous 5-2 UCF. Josh Heupel was named head coach of the UCF Knights on December 5, 2017, replacing the departing Scott Frost, who had led UCF to a perfect 13-0 season in 2017. Heupel continued the 'magic' in 2018, as UCF took a 12-0 record (AND a 25-game winning streak) into its Sugar Bowl game with LSU, where the Tigers snapped that win streak with a 40-32 victory (coming out party for Joe Burrow). UF followed with a 10-3 season in 2019 but sits a more modest 5-2 entering this game.

Cincy routed Austin Peay 55-20 to open the season and then had comfortable but routine wins over Army (24-10) and South Florida (28-7) in the second and third games of the season. However, the Bearcats have stepped up the pace by averaging a scoring margin of 46.0-12.5 PPG in wins over SMU, Memphis, Houston and East Carolina. QB Desmond Ridder has posted two triple-digit rushing games in running for 398 yards and nine TDs in that four-game span and completed 71.4 percent of his 105 pass attempts for 886 yards and eight TDs against only two INTs. He's completing 66.7% on the season for 1,483 yards with 14 TDs and six INTs, while ranking second on the team with 469 rushing yards (8.8 YPC and nine TDs). RB has 563 yards on 5.2 YPC with seven TDs, as Cincy averages 247.1 YPG on the ground on 6.5 YPC with 24 TDs. In allowing 12.4 PPG, Cincy ranks third in the nation for fewest points allowed. 

UCF opened 2-0 but then lost back-to-back games to Tulsa and Memphis. UCF led Tulsa 16-0 but lost 34-26 (Tulsa's won FOUR times this season when trailing by 14-plus points!) and let a 49-37 lead in the mid-fourth quarter slip away in a 50-49 loss to Memphis. UCF has rebounded to win THREE in a row, averaging 44.3 PPG. QB Gabriel is completing 63.3% for 2,774 yards with 23 TDs and just two INTs, while RBs Anderson (563 yards on 5.8 YPC and four TDs) and McCrae (532 yards on 5.4 YPC with seven TDs) lead a running game averaging 222.3 YPG. Williams (53 catches / 15.0 YPC / 8 TDs) and Robinson (41 catches / 20.0 YPC / 4 TDs) are both dangerous receivers. However, in allowing 28.7 PPG, the UCF defense is allowing more than TWICE as many PPG than Cincy's D.

"It's going to be huge," Bearcats head coach Luke Fickell said. "We're going to find out what we're really made of. ... That is going to be quite a stretch with the bullseye on our back and a lot of things that we want to be able to do. You know we've got to kind of focus in and be hungry and be humble in what we're doing and find a way to continue to grow." This will SURE be a test for the Bearcats, as UCF takes the field with an offense averaging 44.0 PPG on 619.1 YPG (No. 1 in the nation) plus has won 23 of its last 24 home games! What's more, UCF has a score to settle from last season's 27-24 loss at Cincinnati, when the Bearcats broke UCF's 19-game AAC winning streak. Now it's UCF's turn to pull the upset. Book it!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye Opener is on Army at 12:00 ET.

Chad Lunsford served as interim coach at Georgia Southern for the second half of the 2017 season following the firing and departure of Tyson Summers. The team finished that season 2-4 but he was awarded the head coaching gig on November 27, 2017. 10-3 and 7-6 seasons followed (including two bowl berths) and here in 2020 his Eagles are 6-2, including 4-2 in the SBC (third in the East behind 5-0 Coastal Carolina and 4-0 Appalachian St). Georgia Southern steps out of conference play on Saturday to visit West Point for a game with Army.

Jeff Monken took over the Army football program in 2014 and after 4-8 and 2-10 seasons, led the Blacks Knights to seasons of 8-5, 10-3 and 11-2 from 2016 through 2018. Each of the seasons were capped by a bowl win The 2017 team tied the school record for most wins in a season when it beat SD State in the Armed Forces Bowl and then the 2018 team broke the school record for wins when it CRUSHED Houston 70-14 in the same bowl the following year. Maybe more importantly, Army beat Navy THREE straight in that span, while capturing the school's first Commander-in-Chief's Trophy since 1996 in 2016, then following up by winning that trophy again in both 2017 and 2018. However, 2019 was a HUGE disappointment for the Cadets of West Point. Army opened last season with a 'shaky' 14-7 win over Rice (as 23.5 favorites), extending its winning streak to 10 in a row. That streak was snapped the next week at Michigan but a 24-21 loss in OT at The "Big House" was hardly cause for concern. Army would win its next two games over UTSA (31-21) and Morgan St (52-21) but then the 'wheels came off.' Army would lose SEVEN of its final nine games, beating only sad-sack UMass (1-11 in 2019) and VMI, an FCS school. A crushing 31-7 to Navy was a fitting end to a dismal season. The 2020seaason has been a nice bounce-back, as Army enters this contest 6-2.

Georgia Southern comes into this contest on a THREE-game winning streak after a 40-38 home win over Texas State last Saturday. QB Shai Werts leads an offense that depends on its running game, which ranks 5th in the nation in averaging 275.8 YPG on the ground while averaging 5.5 YPC. Werts completes a modest 58.9% for 789 yards with five TDs and six INTs. However, he's second on the team with 605 rushing yards on 5.4 YPC with six TDs. Four RBs have 300-plus rushing yards, led by JD King's 625 yards (5.4 YPC) and five TDs. The defense has been strong all season, as despite allowing 38 points to a 1-9 Texas St team in its last game, Georgia Southern is holding its opponents to a modest 21.8 PPG.

Army has SEVEN players with 200-plus rushing yards, led by RB Robinson's 347 yards on 8.1 YPC. RBs Buchanan and Adkins plus QB Anderson all have four rushing TDs, as Army ranks second in the nation with 303.4 YPG on the ground (on 5.3 YPC) with 27 rushing TDs. Army QBs have attempted just 40 passes in EIGHT games. Speaking of defense, Army is allowing its opponents just 15.0 PPG. Army is coming off a bad loss at Tulane (38-12) but in fairness, the Black Knights hadn't played in THREE weeks prior to that contest.

Speaking of recent games, how does one explain away Georgia Southern's two-point win at home over a 1-9 Texas St team? Georgia Southern's lone road win this year came 35-30 at UL-Monroe, which is just 2-8 on the season. By the way, Army routed UL-Monroe at home back on Sep 12, 37-7 (outgained the Warhawks 468-200 in total yards). It's true that Ga Southern QB Werts give the Eagles a more-balanced attack but in the end, this game will be decided by the competing option attacks. The Eagles top runner (JD King) has been lost to an ACL injury and note that the ONLY two times Army has passed more than 10 times in a game, it has lost! One of those losses came at now-No. 7 Cincinnati which is 7-0. The Cadets trailed just 17-10 in that game on the road midway through the fourth quarter and eventually lost just 24-10. Army's schedule in 2020 can be questioned by the Blacks Knights are 5-0 SU at home this season, extending their record at home to 21-2 SU since the start of the 2017 season. Stealing a chant from the Army/Navy rivalry, "Go Army! Beat Georgia Southern!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider Game of the Month is on Minnesota at 7:30 ET.

PJ Fleck 'rowed the boat' at Western Michigan back in 2016, leading the Broncos to a 13-1 season. He used that as a 'launching pad' to get the Minnesota job and in his third season at the school, led the Gophers to an 11-win season (1st since 1904), including that impressive win over Auburn in the Outback Bowl. However, so far in 2020, Fleck's long-time motto has 'run aground!' The Gophers opened 0-2 in losing 49-24 to Michigan and Maryland 45-44 on a missed extra-point in OT but rebounded with a 41-14 home win over Illinois.  However, the not-so Golden Gophers followed up their first win of the year with a real clunker in a 35-7 home loss to Iowa last Saturday. Minnesota desperately needs a win here at home on Friday, when 2-1 Purdue visits Minneapolis.

Jeff Brohm had a strong three-year run as Western Kentucky's head coach (2014-16), going 30-10 overall, before accepting the Purdue job. He led the Boilermakers to bowl berths in his first two seasons (2017 and 2018) but Purdue was just 13-13 in those two years. A 4-8 season followed in 2019 and after opening 2-0 in 2020, the Boilermakers lost their showdown with Northwestern last Saturday (both schools entered unbeaten), 27-20 at home.

The Boilermakers are still hoping that standout WR Rondale Moore will return to provide Purdue's offense with a spark. Moore was sensational as a freshman in 2018 (114 catches for 1,258 yards with 21 TDs) and was off to another great start in 2019, when he was lost for the season in Purdue's fourth game. He's missed the first three games due to a lower-body injury. QB Aidan O'Connell (64.7% for 916 yards with 7 TDs and 2 INTs) threw for 263 yards and two TDs against Northwestern, while RB Zander Horvath caught nine passes for 100 yards. However, Horvath (252 rushing yards on 4.8 YPC) was held to just 21 yards, after topping 100 yards in wins over Iowa and Illinois. Purdue's ground game managed just TWO yards on 17 attempts! Without Moore, Bell (86 catches with 7 TDs in 2019) leads with 31 catches and four TDs grabs.

Minnesota's leading rusher Smith (1,163 yards / 5.1 YPC / 8 TDs) and record-setting WR Tyler Johnson (86 catches / 1,318 yards / 13 TDs) both moved on but QB Tanner Morgan returned, after throwing 30 TD passes last season (against only seven INTs). However, Morgan is off to a VERY slow start (57.5% / 769 yards / 4 TDs and 4 INTs). There is good news on offense for Minnesota, RB Mohammad Ibrahim has returned to his freshman form (1,160 yards on 5.7 YPC with nine TDs), after being injured for part of last season (he still ran for 604 yards on 5.3 YPC and seven TDs). Ibrahim has run for 140-plus yards in all four games, topping 200 yards, twice. He has 715 yards on the season, averaging 5.5 YPC with 10 TDs. WR Bateman is no Johnson but he does have 32 catches. Minnesota's D returned just four starters and has allowed 43.0 PPG in its three losses.

It's a 180-degree turnaround from last year for Minnesota in 2020, after the Golden Gophers won 11 games in 2019,  winning close games because the team frequently made big plays and didn't make mistakes. That same attention to detail has been missing in 2020. Minnesota plays ranked schools Wisconsin (10) and Northwestern (19) the next two weeks, then ends the season at Nebraska, needing to win THREE of four to finish at .500. Is that a 'bridge too far?' Probably, but beating Purdue here at home is NOT! Minnesota has won SIX of its last seven meetings with Purdue and the last time the Golden Gophers hosted the Boilermakers (2018), they won 41-10, the largest margin of victory in this series since 1985. Home dog 'barks VERY LOUDLY in this one!

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Thursday Game of the Month is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:20 ET.

The NFC West has a three-way tie at the top between the Cards, Rams and Seahawks (all are 6-3).The Cards and Seahawks square off in Seattle and barring a tie, one will move to 7-3. The Rams play Monday night in Tampa against the Bucs, making their path to 7-3 a real test. The Cardinals overcame a 10-point fourth quarter deficit back in Week 7 in a SNF matchup at home, to edge the Seahawks 37-34 on a Zane Gonzalez 48-yard FG with 15 seconds remaining in OT (note: Gonzalez had previously kicked a 44-yarder as time expired in regulation). The loss was Seattle's first of the season (after opening 5-0) and the Seahawks have gone to drop two of their next three games, as well. Arizona's win over Seattle was the team's THIRD in a row and after a bye in Week 8, the Cards have lost a close one (34-31 to Miami) and won a close one (32-30 over Buffalo), all at home. 

I'm sure ALL are aware that Arizona's win over Buffalo belongs in the 'miracle' category and the Cards head to Seattle off THREE straight games (2-1) decided by three, three and two points. QB Kyler Murray is having a superb 'sophomore' season, completing 68.2% for 2,375 yards with 17 TDs and eight INTs. He's also the Cards' leading rusher with 604 yards on 6.9 YPC with 10 rushing TDs! Kenyon Drake (612 yards on 4.5 YPC with four TDs) has developed into a dependable RB and the Cards have now edged ahead of the Ravens to own the NFL's top rushing offense at 168.9 YPG (5.3 YPC).  Fitzgerald is heading to the HOF but while he has 35 catches, he's averaging only 7.8 YPC and has yet to snare a TD pass. Hopkins caught the game-winner against the Bills and leads the team with 67 receptions (four TDs). Fellow WR Kirk has a modest 27 catches but leads the team with six TD grabs. Arizona's defense allowed just 18.7 PPG through its first six games but enters this contest having allowed 30-plus points in each of its last three (32.7 per).

Defense has been a season-long problem for Seattle, as it is allowing a league-high 448.3 YPG and almost 30 PPG (29.6). However, led by Russell Wilson's MVP-caliber play (19 TD passes and just three INTs), Seattle got off to a 5-0 start. However, in Seattle's recent 1-3 slide, Wilson had four TDs and zero INTs in Seattle lone win in that span, while passing for only five TDs against seven INTs in the three losses. He didn't throw a TD pass in last week's loss at the Rams (had two INTs), just the second time since the start of the 2019 season in which he went without a TD pass in a game (the other time was also against the Rams, in a 28-12 road loss last season). However, he is completing 69.8% for 2,789 yards with 28 TDs and 10 INTs on the season (110.5 QB rating). Wilson is also the team's leading rusher (325 yards on 7.2 YPC) but the Seahawks have been without their top two RBs, Chris Carson (mid-foot sprain) and Carlos Hyde (hamstring), for the past three games. Carson remains out but Hyde has returned to practice on a limited basis. Wilson has a 'dynamic duo' in WRs Lockett (58 catches with six TDs) and Metcalf (45 catches on 18.1 YPC with eight TDs).

The Cards are on the road for the first time since Week 6 (three home games and a bye week), while this marks Seattle's ONLY home game in a four-week span. What's more, after leading the division since Week 1, Seattle would fall from atop it for the first time this season with a loss. I realize Seattle has RB issues (it has all season) but I'm not sure why Seattle is favored here at home, by pretty much the same as it was in Arizona! A win keeps Seattle atop the NFC West (all by itself if Tampa Bay can beat the Rams) plus Seattle's next four opponents (Philadelphia, the NYG, the NYJ and Washington) have  a combined 8-28-1 record in 2020. CenturyLink Stadium doesn't offer the same kind of home field edge it did in 'normal' times but Seattle is still a perfect 4-0 at home in 2020, averaging 34.3 PPG. That's almost the exact point total the Cards' defense has allowed (see above) in its last three games.  Don't be fooled by Arizona's 3-1 road record in 2020, as its opponents have been San Francisco, Carolina, the NY Jets and Dallas, teams with a combined record of 9-29! Lay the 'cheap' price!

Good luck...Larry 

My 10* AAC Game of the Year is on Tulane at 7:30 ET.

Willie Fritz arrived in New Orleans to take over at Tulane for the 2016 season. The Green Wave would go 4-8 and 5-7 in his first two seasons but they would then go 6-6 and 6-6 in 2018 and 2019's regular season, capping each one off with a bowl win. It marked the first time Tulane had posted back-to-back winning seasons in 20 years. Tulane opened by eking out a 27-24 win at South Alabama but then took a 24-0 lead over Navy at the half, only to lose 27-24. The Green Wave rebounded with a 66-24 rout of Southern Miss but then lost THREE in a row (Houston, SMU and UCF), while allowing 45.7 PPG. With season 'heading south,' Tulane has rebounded with THREE straight wins, scoring exactly 38 points in each contest. 

Tulane now heads to Tulsa on Thursday night to face a 4-1 Tulsa team (4-0 in AAC), which just entered the AP poll this past Sunday at No. 25. Philip Montgomery got his first head coaching gig at Tulsa in 2015. He led the Golden Hurricane to bowls those first two seasons, including to a 1-3 season in 2016. However, THREE straight losing seasons followed (9-27 overall). Tulsa opened the current season with a competitive 16-7 loss at then-No. 11 Oklahoma St. Tulsa has ripped off FOUR straight wins since. Kudos to the Golden Hurricane who fell behind the then-No. 19 Mustangs 21-0 last Saturday, before outscoring them 28-3 the rest of the way. So what else is new? Tulsa trailed 16-2 at UCF on Oct 3 but came back to win 31-26 and on Oct 30 at home, trailed East Carolina 17-3 before winning 34-30. Nothing to it!

The Green Wave's surge has coincided with the maturation of freshman QB Michael Pratt, who has 14 TDs and just four INTs in seven starts (he also has five rushing TDs). He has brought balance to an offense that features an outstanding running game, averaging 224.1 YPG on 5.3 YPC with a whopping 26 TDs. Four RBs contribute, led by Huderson (548 yards on 6.6 YPC) and Carroll (542 yards on 5.6 YPC with 10 TDs). Tulsa's "comeback kids" are led by QB Zach Smith (61.5% with 10 TDs and 6 INTs) and a running game averaging 161.8 YPG on 4.1 YPC with eight TDs. Tulsa's defense has been VERY good, allowing just 21.8 PPG.

This is a tough spot for Tulsa, its win over SMU came after a stretch in which the Golden Hurricane had played just two games in 41 days, as Tulsa has had three weekends in which a game was postponed due to COVID-19 issues. This week, the Golden Hurricane return to action just FIVE days after the SMU win and will be playing as a ranked team for the first time since 2010. Tulane comes in on a roll and has beaten Tulsa each of the last three meetings. Take the points but expect an OUTRIGHT win by Tulane.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MAC Attack-Part 3 is on Central Michigan at 7:00 ET.

Western Michigan's Tim Lester has had BIG shoes to fill, taking over in 2017, after PJ Fleck led the Broncos to a 13-1 season (and a Cotton Bowl bid vs Wisconsin) in 2016. His first team went 6-6 (no bowl) but the Broncos have gone to a bowl each of the last two seasons, although they've lost both, finishing 7-6 each season. Jim McElwain made a name for himself at Colorado St, which got him the head coaching gig at Florida in 2015. The Gators went 10-4 and 9-4 in his first two seasons but he had problems with "powers that be" and was let go after a 3-4 start in 2017. He resurfaced at Central Michigan in 2019, taking over a team that went 1-11 in 2018. Things couldn't have gone much better in his first season, as the Chippewas won the MAC West (6-2) and finished the season 8-6 overall, although they lost the MAC title game 26-21 to Miami-Ohio and their bowl game 48-11 to SD State.

Western Michigan and Central Michigan have both opened 2-0 and meet Wednesday in Mount Pleasant. The winner puts itself in PRIME position to win the MAC West. The MAC is only playing SIX league games, meaning the team which comes out of the game at 3-0 will effectively own a TWO-game lead, considering it will also have the tiebreaker. Kaleb Eleby (redshirted last season) but has played well at QB for WMU, completing 71.1% for 546 yards with six TDs and zero INTs. The running game averages 185.5 YPG on 5.5 YPC, led by Sean Tyler's 168 yards on 8.0 YPC with a TD. He also has 10 catches, which ties WR D’Wayne Eskridge for the team lead. Eskridge is averaging 24.5 YPC with TDs, while fellow WRs Moore ( six catches / 19.7 YPC / one TD) and Hall (three catches / 29.7 YPC / two TDs) have made "big plays." The offense has scored 99 points in its first two games and somehow scored two TDs in the final 45 seconds of WMU's 41-38 win over Toledo last Wednesday (had to see it to believe it!).

CMU quarterback David Moore's status remains uncertain as a result of an NCAA suspension but Daniel Richardson has started the first two games and has been more than adequate (60% for 439 yards / 3 TDs / 1 INT). However, there's potential for even more big plays thanks to a strong receiving corps. Dallas Dixon averages 18.8 YPC over six catches, while Kalil Pimpleton (nine), JaCorey Sullivan (five) and Tyrone Scott (four) rounding out the top contributors. The running game is averaging 210.5 YPC on 4.7 YPC, led by Lewis (171 yards / 3.9 YPC / 3 TDs) and Nichols (122 yards / 5.8 YPC / one TD). The defense is the best in the MAC, holding opponents to 18.5 PPG on 294.5 YPG.

Central Michigan was 6-0 SU & ATS at home last season and its win and cover at home over Ohio U in the team's season opener gives them a 7-0 SU & ATS run at Kelly/Shorts Stadium. Meanwhile, WMU was 1-6 SU away from home in 2019 (counts bowl loss) and a 58-13 win at Akron on Nov 4 hardly counts (Zips are on a 19-game slide, going 4-15 ATS)! A good defense usually beats a good offense plus remember, CMU is averaging 35.5 PPG, themselves. The fact that the Broncos are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS win has me saying, why NOT play the Chippewas?

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MNF Magic play (NFC North Game of the Month) is on the Chi Bears at 8:15 ET.

Mike Zimmer began as Minnesota's head coach back in 2015 and led the Vikings to an 11-5 season (wild card berth). He's taken Minnesota to the playoffs in both 2017 (13-3 / division champs) and again last season at 10-6 (another wild card). However, in the even numbered years, 2016 and '18, his teams have fallen short of the postseason, going 8-8 and 8-7-1, respectively. A non-postseason year in 2020 will NOT be acceptable but the Vikings will be hard-pressed to avoid that from happening. The Chicago Bears hired John Fox as head coach in 2015 and he had three straight losing seasons, going 3-13 in 2016 and 5-11 in 2017. That was enough and the Bears hired Mike Nagy on January 7, 2018, Nagy was one of six candidates for the Bears' job and sure seemed like the 'right choice,' as Chicago went 12-4 in his first season. The Bears fell to 8-8 last season but surprised by opening 3-0 and 5-1. However, they enter this contest off THREE straight losses.

The Vikings were manhandled by the Packers in Week 1 and after a 40-23 loss Week 6 to Atlanta, stood 1-5. However, the team's Week 7 bye seems to have rejuvenated the team, as Minnesota won 28-22 at Green Bay in Week 8 and then beat Detroit 34-20 at home in Week 9. QB Kirk Cousins connected on 13 of his 20 pass attempts for 220 yards and 3 TDs in the win over the Lions, while RB Dalvin Cook ran for 206 yards on just 22 carries with two TDs. Kirk Cousins is oft-criticized but he completed 70.1% for 4,298 yards with 30 TDs and 10 INTs in his first season with the Vikings and then completed 69.1% for 3,603 yards with 26 TDs and 6 INTs last year, finishing with a career-high QB rating of 107.4. He's has NOT been that good this year, completing 65.6 percent for 1.855 yards. He has 15 TDs but 10 INTs, FOUR more than he had all last season. Dalvin Cook (858 yards on 6.0 YPC with 12 TDs), when healthy, is as good as any RB in the NFL. Cook has run for 369 yards (7.1 YC) for five TDs (plus one TD catch) in Minnesota's back-to-back wins. More on Cousins, Cook and Minnesota's defense in my 'closing argument.'

The Bears have used two QBs this season but with Trubisky sidelined with a shoulder injury, Foles is the current 'man.' He blows hot-and-cold but with RB Montgomery (472 yards) out with a concussion, he's thrown 93 passes the last two games (64 completions / 68.9%) for 607 yards with four TDs and just one INT. Chicago's best receiver, Allen Robinson (57 catches with three TDs) is listed as questionable but is expected to play. Fellow WRs Mooney and Miller have combined for 63 catches and four TDs, while TE Jimmy Graham looks 'young' again, with 35 catches and five TDs (had just 38 catches with Green Bay all of last season).

In closing, let's look defense, first. The Vikings are allowing 29.2 PPG on 417.9 YPG, while Chicago allows 21.1 PPG on 335.1 YPG. Chicago head coach Mike Nagy is a perfect 4-0 SU vs Minnesota in his first two seasons (1st of two meetings this season, tonight) and Kirk Cousins is 0-3 in three meetings with the Bears as a Viking (sat out meaningless Week 17 game in 2019), with Minnesota averaging a WOEFUL 12.0 PPG in those contests. There is no denying how good Cook can be but in Cousins' three losses vs the Bears, Cook has averaged a miniscule 28.7 YPG on the ground. Two last factoids. Cousins is 0-9 in his career on Monday nights, which is the worst record of any QB in NFL history! If that's not enough, how about the fact that Minnesota is a dismal 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games at Soldier Field? Not sure why there has been so much 'play' on Minnesota but I'm taking the home dog.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFC West Game of the Year is on the LA Rams at 4:25 ET.

The NFC West owns a collective 20-13 (.606) record, second to only the AFC North's mark of 21-10-1, plus it has the best point differential of any division at plus-144 (all four teams are in the plus category). The Los Angeles Rams spent last week on a bye and actually gained ground, as Seattle, Arizona, and San Francisco all lost. "It was a pretty solid bye week," Rams WR Cooper Kupp said. "They did us some favors there." The 5-3 Rams are within a game of the first-place Seahawks (6-2) as the teams get set to meet Sunday at SoFi Stadium.

Seattle opened the season 5-0 but has lost TWO of its last three, with Russell Wilson showing a 'human' side. He's completing 71.0% on the season for 2,541 yards for 2,818 yards with 28 TDs and 8 INTs (117.1 QB rating) but FIVE of his eight INTs on the season have come in the team's two losses. Seattle's run game (without Russell's 265 yards on 7.2 YPC) is very mediocre and what's more, the Seahawks have been without RBs Chris Carson (mid-foot sprain) and Carlos Hyde (hamstring) each of the past two weeks and it's uncertain if they'll return for this one. Then there is Seattle's defense, which has been a HUGE concern all season. Seattle ranks dead-last in allowing 455.8 YPG and is 30th of 32 teams in points allowed at 30.4 per game.

LA's Jared Goff is not having a great season but still completes 65.5% for 2,145 yards with 13 TDs and six INTs. He's got an excellent WR duo in Kupp (48 catches) and Woods (37 catches) plus a pair of TEs who have each caught 20 passes and combined for four TD grabs. The departure of RB Todd Gurley has not hurt a bit as in fact, the Rams averaged just 93.7 YPG rushing on 3.7 YPC last season, while this year's "RB by Committee" concept has produced 137.8 YPG on 4.4 YPC. Then there is the LA defense, which is allowing just 291.9 YPG (2nd-best) and more importantly, only 19.0 PPG (also 2nd-best)!

Seattle returns from a performance at Buffalo (allowed John Allen to throw for 415 yards and three TDs) and finds themselves on the road again here. This well-rested Rams team is on a 9-3-1 ATS run after a bye and is 3-0 at home in 2020, allowing just 12.0 PPG. Rams move into a first-place tie with the Seahawks after with win (will the Cards make it a three-way tie?).

Good luck...Larry

 My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on the LV Raiders at 4:05 ET

The Raiders relocated to Las Vegas for the 2020 season, as Jon Gruden's second stint with the team entered its third season. The Raiders went 4-12 in Year One and then 7-9 last season. Will the third time be the charm? The now Las Vegas Raiders begin the second half of their season Sunday afternoon against the visiting Denver Broncos off back-to-back victories and at 5-3, are in the thick of the AFC wild card play 'picture' (catching 8-1 KC in the AFC West is a bit of a stretch). Denver opened the current season off THREE consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 1972 and Drew Lock got the start in Week 1, giving Denver's its 7th starting QB since Peyton Manning led the Broncos to their Super Bowl 50 win. He has missed some time earlier but he has been 'at the controls' the last four games.

Denver comes in off Denver a 34-27 loss at Atlanta, after the Broncos had beaten the Chargers the previous week 34-30, scoring the winning TD with 0:00 on the clock. The week before that, the Broncos lost 43-16 to the Chiefs. Doing some quick math, the Denver D has allowed 35.7 PPG over its last three games. While Lock has had his moments, he's completing a poor 56.5% on the season for 1,240 yards with six TDs and six INTs (QB rating of 73.6). The Broncos expected much more from FA Melvin Gordon but he's got just 393 rushing yards (4.1 YPC) with four TDS. Denver is averaging a modest 116.3 YPG on the ground and its passing game is inconsistent, at best. TE Fant leads with 32 catches, while WRs Jeudy (30 catches / 16.1 YPC / 2 TDs) and Patrick (27 catches / 14.2 YPC / 3 TDs) are not exactly a dynamic duo. Jeudy (shoulder) didn't practice much this week and is questionable. More bad news came to a defense already struggling in that DE Shelby Harris, who sat out the loss to the Falcons while in self-quarantine following close contact with someone who had contracted COVID-19, tested positive for the disease on Wednesday morning and will not play Sunday.

The struggling Denver defense will have to find a way to slow down Las Vegas QB Derek Carr, who is having a "career season." He's completing 69.8% for 2,002 yards with 16 TDs and just two INTs (110.0 QB rating). His favorite targets are TE Waller (50 catches / 4 TDs) and WR Renfro (27 catches / 2 TDs). WR Agholor may have just 17 catches but he's averaging 20.4 YPC and has a team-high five TD receptions. The Raiders OL has been devastated by injuries but Carr just keeps getting the job done plus 2nd-year RB Jacobs has followed an excellent rookie season (1,150 yards and 7 TDs), by rushing for 588 yards with six TDs plus had added 26 catches (had only 20 all last season).

The recent play of the Denver defense (see above) makes me believe Carr and Co. should be in complete control. The fact that the Raiders have lost EACH of their last two home games makes me like them even more. Note that those two losses came against the 7-2 Buffalo Bills and the 6-3 Tampa Bay 'Bradys.' Denver is nowhere near in the class of those two teams. Want more? The home team is on a perfect 8-0 SU run (6-2 ATS) in this series plus the Broncos are on an 8-19-1 ATS run vs division opponents. C'mon, the sad-sack Falcons (just 2-6 at the time) closed as 4 1/2-point home favorites over the Broncos last Sunday. This price is 'CHEAP!' Lay it.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the NY Giants at 1:00 ET.

It's Week 10 and the 2-7 Giants can actually say with a straight face, if we win on Sunday, we are "right in the hunt" for the division title. It's true, thanks to the NFC East being arguably the worst in NFL history here in 2020. The 3-4-1 Eagles are in first place, followed by 2-6 Washington and then the 2-7 Cowboys and Cowboys. These teams met back on Oct 22 in Philadelphia (Week 7), with New York controlling most of the first 3 1/2 quarters, leading 21-10 with less than five minutes left. However, Carson Wentz threw 3- and 18-yard TD passes to 'escape' with a 22-21 win.

Philly QB Wentz entered this season having thrown EXACTLY seven INTs in each of the last THREE seasons, while passing for 81 TD passes. However, Wentz has really struggled in 2020, completing only 58.4% for 1,883 yards with as many INTs (12) as TDs (12), His 12 INTs are an NFL-high and he's also lost FOUR fumbles. His QB rating is just 73.2, after posting ratings of 101.9, 102.2 and 93.1 the last three years. Philly's many injuries haven't helped. TE Ertz and WR Jackson remain on IR but after a bye week, RB Miles Sanders and WR Alshon Jeffery are expected back. Miles led all rookies in scrimmage yards last season with 1,327 (818 rushing / 509 receiving) and has run for 434 yards (6.1 YPC) with three TDs in five games this season. Philly's defense is no better than average, allowing 340.1 PPG (10th) but 25.6 PPG (17th).

Speaking of QBs that make mistakes, let me submit the name of Daniel Jones. He's completing 62.4% for 1,878 yards with eight TDs and nine INTs. I will add that he's also New York's leading rusher, adding 320 yards on 8.0 YPC. He WAS turnover free in New York's win last Sunday (more later) but even with that mistake-free game, the second-year QB has committed a whopping 36 turnovers in 21 career starts. The only NFL quarterback with a worse ratio to start his career was Ryan Leaf (OUCH!). With Barkley done for the season, the New York running game is non-existent. Subtract Jones' totals and New York's RBs are averaging 70.4 YPG on 3.7 YPC. TE Engram leads with 36 catches, followed by WR Slayton (33 catches / 14.9 YPC / 3 TDs). It's possible we'll see more of Golden Tate in this game. Tate signed a four-year, $37 million deal last year (he had 90-plus catches with Seattle for four straight seasons from 2014-17) in an attempt to fill the void created by the trade of Odell Beckham Jr. to the Cleveland Browns. However, he's been in 'the dog house' in 2020, playing just over 50% of the offensive snaps the past few weeks prior to his benching. Tate has 22 catches on 29 targets for 226 yards with two TDs this season in a reduced role. He apologized earlier this week so maybe...The New York defense is similar to that of Philadelphia's, allowing 24.3 PPG on 360.0 YPG.

Philly's Week 7 22-21 win over the Giants gave the Eagles SEVEN straight victories over their NFC East rivals but note that the Giants have covered in FIVE of those contests. The Giants lost that Thursday night game at Philly by allowing two TDs in the final 4:38. The Giants led 20-3 at Washington last Sunday but needed TWO fourth-quarter interceptions to hold on for a 23-20 win. That said, the Giants enter this contest having covered FIVE of their last six, while averaging 24.2 PPG in their last five. I want the points but I'm calling for the OUTRIGHT win!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on Michigan at 7:30 ET.

The Big Ten returned to play on Friday, Oct 23 as then-No. 14 hosted Illinois in the nation's oldest conference's first game of CFB 2020. Wisconsin expected RB Jonathan Taylor (2,003 rushing yards in 2019) to leave a year early for the NFL but head Paul Chryst couldn't have planned for the loss of QB Jack Coan (69.6% / 2,727 yards / 18 TDs and just five INTs in 2019) to a foot injury on Oct 10. That meant redshirt freshman Graham Mertz got the start. Not to worry, as Metz completed 20 of 21 passes for 248 yards with five TDs, as the Badgers rolled 45-7. Wisconsin heads to "The Big House" in Ann Arbor to play Michigan ranked 13th in the latest AP poll but because of a fairly significant COVID-19 outbreak (which included QB Mertz and head coach Chryst), Wisconsin will be playing just its second game of the season. As for Michigan, Jim Harbaugh's team is once again underachieving. The Wolverines ran all over Minnesota 49-24 in its season opener on Oct 24 (256 rushing yards on 8.3 YPC) but have since lost 27-24 at home to Michigan St (as a three-TD favorite) and then steamrolled 38-21 at Indiana last Saturday, losing to the Hoosiers for the FIRST time in 33 years!

Let's start with Wisconsin. It was never a given that the Badgers would be able to play this game but it's on. However, the status of redshirt freshman QB Graham Mertz, who tested positive on Oct 24, is unclear. Head coach Paul Chryst, who tested positive on the same day, said the Badgers will measure the progress of Mertz all week. "Graham, the way that he is timing out (is) starting that process of coming back, his tests are all done. So I think he'll be able to have some practice. We'll see if it's enough practice time," Chryst said. "You don't know. Each guy's a little bit different how they handle all of it. We'll kind of see on him and a couple of other guys that were kind of in that early group of (positive tests)." 

Michigan broke in a new QB to start this season as well and Joe Milton shined in the team's season-opening win. He completed 15 of 22 for 225 yards with one TD and zero INTs, while adding 52 yards rushing and another TD. Yes, Michigan's dropped its last two games but DON'T blame Milton. He threw for 300 yards and ran for 59 more in the loss to MSU and while he did throw his first two INTs of the season at Indiana, he also passed for 344 yards and three TDs. Michigan's running game disappeared vs Indiana 13 yards on 18 attempts and its defense allowed Indiana to roll up 460 yards.

Why Michigan here? First let me start with Wisconsin. No one knows for certain which players are ready and how much that they will be able to impact the contest. What's more, so what that Wisconsin rolled over Illinois 45-7? The Illini are 0-3, having allowed 39.0 PPG on 475.7 YPG. In fact, Illinois 'held' Wisconsin to 430 yards, which is the team's best defensive effort of the season. I'm on record as not liking or being very impressed with Harbaugh but the fact remains that the home team is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings of this series and Wisconsin has NOT won in Ann Arbor since 2010! Michigan is out of the AP top-25 for the first time since the end of the 2017 season and a HUGE understatement would be that the Wolverines (particularly Harbaugh) is DESPERATE for a win in this one. Getting points is a bonus. Go Big Blue!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye Opener is on West Va at 12:00 ET.

TCU head coach Gary Patterson took over at TCU when Dennis Franchione left to take the Alabama job (that didn't go well but it's a story for another day) and in his 19 full seasons, he's led TCU to 15 winning ones and 16 bowls (10-6). TCU's 'glory years' were 2008-11, when the school went 45-5 over four seasons. TCU finished 7th, 6th, 2nd and 14th in the final AP rankings during that stretch (2010 team went 13-0, including a 21-18 Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin). TCU entered 2020 off a 7-6 record in 2018 and a 5-7 record in 2019. 3-3 TCU has just nine games on its current schedule, so the Horned Frogs will fail to reach eight wins for a third straight year. That hasn't happened since the 1998 team went 8-4 to end a drought of 14 seasons the school failed to reach eight wins (maybe the team gets a 'pass' this year, due to COVID-19).

Neal Brown spent four years as the head coach at Troy. His first season saw his team go 4-8 but over the next three seasons the Trojans went 31-8 overall, including winning all THREE bowl appearances. He was announced as the 35th head football coach of West Va on January 5, 2019 and after a 5-7 first season, the Mountaineers are off to a 4-3 start in 2020. West Va lost all four Big 12 home games last season but the Mountaineers are 4-0 at home so far this season, including 3-0 in Big 12 play.

QB Max Duggan battled a heart condition that led to him having a procedure back in mid-August to correct it. The Horned Frogs opened the season losing THREE of four but have won two in row, albeit over struggling programs Baylor and Texas Tech (a combined 2-9 this season). Duggan has been able to play all games so far, completing 65.2% for 1,113 yards with a modest five TDs but just two INTs. He's TCU's leading rusher (329 yards / 4.1 YPC / 6 TDs) and rushed for a career-high 154 yards and three touchdowns on 19 carries in last Saturday's 34-18 win over Texas Tech. RB Barlow adds 291 yards on 5.8 YPC and three TDs, as the Horned Frogs are averaging 184.5 YPG on the ground.

The Mountaineers are coming off a tough 17-13 loss at then-No. 22 Texas last Saturday. However, West Virginia nearly beat the Longhorns despite rushing for a season-low 43 yards. The Mountaineers average just 67.3 YPG on the ground while losing all THREE road contests but have averaged 218.3 YPG in going 4-0 at home. RB Leddie Brown has run for 741 yards on 5.3 YPC with nine TDs (more in a bit). QB Jarrett Doege has been pretty good, completing 65.2% for 2,007 yards with 11 TDs and only three INTs in 282 attempts. The defense has been strong all season, allowing 19.4 PPG.

Here's the bottom line. West Va is 3-1 SU in its last four with TCU, covering all four. That includes last season's 20-17 outright upset at Fort Worth as about a two-TD underdog. I just noted West Va's defense above and will add that its "stop unit" is allowing just 282 YPG against Big 12 opponents, holding those foes to 97 YPG under their season average. West Va is averaging 39.5 PPG in going 4-0 at home and RB Brown, who has averaged a modest 76.0 YPG on the road, averages 128.2 YPG at home. Add in that QB Doege has thrown for over 300 yards in each of West Va's last four games with a 6-1 TD/INT ratio and "the price is right" for a West Va "W' and an easy cover!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on Penn St at 12:00 ET.

Penn State and Nebraska are two of CFB's most storied programs with more than 1,700 wins between the schools. However, the Nittany Lions (ranked No. 7 in the AP's preseason poll) and Nebraska both meet Saturday at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, Ne (12 ET) winless so far in 2020. Penn State has opened a season with three straight losses for the first time since 2001, when it dropped its first four games, and hasn't experienced a losing season since going 4-7 in 2004. The Nittany Lions opened this season with a 36-35 overtime loss at Indiana on Oct 24, suffered a 13-point home loss to Ohio State and then suffered a 35-19 home defeat to Maryland on Saturday as a four-TD favorite. Nebraska opened 2020 off three straight losing seasons under Scott Frost and has scored just 30 points in losing to Ohio State and Northwestern.

Current head coach Jamie Franklin led Vandy to three straight bowl games from 2011-13, after the school had made only FOUR bowl appearances in its history. That got him the Penn St job and after back-to-back 7-6 seasons, led the Nittany Lions to 11-win seasons in THREE of the next four years. Expectations were high entering 2020 but I've already noted Penn St's 'nightmare' of a start. "It's very apparent what type of football team we are," Penn State QB Sean Clifford said. "We are an 0-3, underperforming football team." Clifford completed 27 of 57 passes for 340 yards and three touchdowns, with two interceptions, against Maryland. He's thrown three TD passes in each of the team's first three games but gets little help from a running game averaging just 129.3 YPG on 3.4 YPC (Clifford is the team's leading rusher with 150 yards). However, he does have solid receivers in WRs Dotson 21 catches / 17.2 yPC / 5 TDs) and Washington (14 catches / 3 TDs) plus TE Freiermuth (16 catches / 1 TD). Penn State's defense is typically a strength (allowed just 16.0 PPG in 2019) but after three games, this year's team is allowing 36.3 PPG.

Scott Frost led Nebraska to a national championship back in 1997 as its starting QB and always wanted to "return home." After leading UCF to a perfect 13-0 season in 2017, he got his wish. As the proverb goes, "Be careful what you wish for." The 'Huskers have gone 4-8, 5-7 and 0-2, giving Frost a 9-17 record, including 6-14 in the Big Ten. Starting QB Martinez and backup McCaffrey have combined to throw 65 passes and Nebraska is still without a TD pass. The duo split time vs Northwestern, as Nebraska rushed for 224 yards, totaled 442 yards and gained 28 FDs but suffered a 21-13 loss at Northwestern on Saturday. "It's inexcusable we only had 13 points in that game," Frost said. He's right about that. Martinez and McCaffrey are runners, not passers, with Martinez running for 187 yards (7.2 YPC) and McCaffrey for 129 yards (7.6 YPC). The 'best' RB is Mills, who has just 84 yards on 3.0 YPC. As for pass-catchers, Robinson has 10 receptions, averaging a woeful 8.4 YPC.

Comparative scores can be misleading but both have played Ohio St earlier, with Penn St within eight points in the early 4th quarter of a 13-point loss, while Nebraska got blown out, 52-17. This is Nebraska's first home game of 2020 but so what, the Cornhuskers are 5-15 ATS at home the last three seasons. The Nebraska pass D has allowed 75% completions through two games (36 of 48), so expect Clifford to have a big day. NO 0-4 start for Penn St.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on Minnesota at 7:00 ET.

Kirk Ferentz was hired as Iowa's 26th head football coach to replace the retiring Hayden Fry back on December 2, 1998. The team struggled during Ferentz's first two seasons with a combined 4–19 record but the Hawkeyes earned their first bowl bid of the Ferentz era after a 7–5 season in 2001 and then beat Texas Tech in the Alamo Bowl, 19–16. The winning has been consistent ever since, as Iowa has gone 'bowling' in 17 of the previous 19 seasons. Problems arose this past offseason internally and Iowa, which opened No. 24 in the AP's preseason poll, has lost 24-20 at Purdue and 21-20 at home to Northwestern to open a season 0-2 for the first time since 2000. However, the Hawkeyes routed Michigan St 49-7 last Saturday, as Iowa's defense made life miserable for Michigan State QBs, producing two sacks, three interceptions and five hurries (MSU was held to 10 FDs and 286 yards of total offense).

PJ Fleck 'rowed the boat' at Western Michigan back in 2016, leading the Broncos to a 13-1 season. He used that as a 'launching pad' to get the Minnesota job and in his third season at the school, led the Gophers to an 11-win season (1st since 1904), including that impressive win over Auburn in the Outback Bowl. Leading rusher Smith (1,163 yards / 5.1 YPC / 8 TDs) and record-setting WR Tyler Johnson (86 catches / 1,1318 yards / 13 TDs) have moved on and the defense returned just FOUR starters. Minnesota was blown out in its opener against Michigan, allowing 256 rushing yards and 49 points and then lost 45-44 at Maryland (defense allowed 451 yards), when it missed a tying extra-point in OT. The Gophers picked up their first win of 2020 last Saturday, beating hapless Illinois, 41-14.

Iowa had to replace its starting QB, as Nate Stanley ended a three-year career at Iowa with 68 TDs and 23 INTs, while posting a 27-12 record as a starter, including winning all THREE bowl appearances! Sophomore Spencer Petras completed just 53.9 percent of his passes in the first two games and was picked off three times by the Wildcats as the Hawkeyes managed just three points in the last three quarters of a one-point loss. He was better last Saturday, completing 15 of 27 for 167 yards with one TD and zero INTs. Iowa's running game averaged a modest 136.0 YPG in its 0-2 start but led by Tyler Goodson (113 yards / 2 TDs) the Hawkeyes ran for 226 yards on 5.5 YPC. Iowa's 2019 defense ranked 2nd in the Big Ten in allowing 14.0 PPG last season (5th nationally) and ranked 5th in the Big Ten in allowing 308.2 YPG (12th nationally). After three games of 2020, Iowa is allowing 17.0 PPG on 315.0 YPG.

While the Gophers lost RB Smith and WR Johnson (see above), QB Tanner Morgan returned, after throwing 30 TD passes last season (against only seven INTs). However, Morgan is off to a VERY slow start (61.6% / 602 yards / 3 TDs and 2 INTs). The good news on offense is that RB Mohammad Ibrahim has returned to his freshman form (1,160 yards on 5.7 YPC with nine TDs), after being injured for part of last season (he still ran for 604 yards on 5.3 YPC and seven TDs). Ibrahim ran 30 times for 224 yards with four TDs last Saturday and has gained a conference-best 571 yards on 5.9 YPC with 10 TDs through three games. WR Bateman is no Johnson but he does have six TDs among his 24 catches. Minnesota's D was awful vs Michigan and Maryland, so a good effort vs pathetic Illinois is NO big deal.

These rivals play for the Floyd of Rosedale, a statuette of the bronze pig that has served as the rivalry trophy in the series since 1935. It's true that Iowa has won FIVE straight in this series and that includes last season's 23-19 win in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes stormed to a 20-3 lead midway through the second quarter before holding on for a victory to ruin the then-No. 8 Golden Gophers' bid for an undefeated season and possible spot in the College Football Playoff. Talk about a "revenge" motive. Iowa can play defense but Minnesota's offense leads the Big Ten West, averaging 439.3 YPG while scoring 109 points (36.3 per). Morgan is OVERDUE for a "breakout" performance and should remember he threw for 386 yards against Iowa's defense last season. I'm calling for Minnesota to win AND by double-digits!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AFC South Game of the Year is on the Ten Titans at 8:20 ET.

The 5-3 Indianapolis Colts visit Nashville on Thursday night to take on the 6-2 Tennessee Titans. The Titans can open a two-game lead in the division with a win, while the Colts can move into a first-place tie with the Titans by winning. The teams meet again at Indianapolis in Week 12. The Colts signed QB Philip Rivers in the offseason as a FA and he's been solid (more below) but it's the team's defense that's been the key, as the Colts are allowing a league-low 290.0 YPG and 20.0 PPG (3rd-best). The Titans entered the season off their great playoff run of last season (won at New England and Baltimore before losing at KC in the AFC championship game) and got off to a 5-0 start. However, back-to-back losses followed, before last Sunday's 24-17 win over the Bears.

Rivers took over as the Chargers' starting QB in 2006 and over the next 14 seasons, started EVERY game, topping 3,000 passing yards in every one, including passing for over 4,000 yards 11 times (he's topped 4,000 in his last SEVEN seasons). He's on pace for another 4,000-yard season in 2020, as through eight games he's got 2,087 yards. His completion rate of 67.9% is slightly above his career mark (64.8) and his QB rating of 91.9 is just below his career mark (95.0). However, he has thrown a modest 10 TD passes and has seven INTs. WR Hilton (22) looks like he'll be able to play but TE Cox (17) is out. The team's leading receiver is RB Hines (28 catches for three TDs). The running game offers little help, averaging 102.4 YPG on 3.7 YPC. Rookie RB Taylor has underwhelmed so far, with 416 yards on 3.9 YPC with four TDs. As noted earlier, it's been the defense that's led the way for the Colts in 2020.

Ryan Tannehill took over at QB for Mariota midway through the 2019 season and was a steady hand during the Titans' strong regular season finish and their playoff run. However, most thought of him as little more than a "game-manager," with the Tennessee offense relying on RB Derrick Henry. Henry dominated most of the time in 2019 but here in 2020, Tannehill has broken through (out). He's completing 65.7% for 1,981 yards with a great TD/INT ratio of 19-3 and a QB rating of 109.4. Henry ran for 1,540 yards with 16 TDs in 2019 and is on pace to duplicate that in 202 with 843 yards and eight TDs. The Tennessee defense has NOT played as well this season, allowing about 30 more YPG and more importantly, 25.1 PPG, after allowing 20.7 PPG in 2019.

The Colts had won five of six before Sunday's 24-10 home loss to Baltimore, which dropped them a game behind Tennessee for first place in the AFC South. Meanwhile, Tennessee ended a two-game slide with its best defensive effort in a month. The Titans held the Bears scoreless through  three quarters and fixed their third-down issues, allowing Chicago to convert just 2 of 15 after permitting opponents to cash in on nearly 62 percent during the first seven games. The Bears are no offensive juggernaut but that's the case with the Colts too, with Indy averaging 26.o PPG (15th) and  360.5 YPG (21st). Yes, the Colts D has been terrific but the Titans are averaging 29.0 PPG (7th-best).

As noted above, this will be the first of two meetings between the teams in 17 days, as they play again on Nov 29 in Indianapolis. Earning a win here is HUGE. My bet says it's Tennessee, as the Titans are 8-3 SU at home since Tannehill assumed the starting job and this price means a "W" is basically a cover!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MAC Game of the Year is on Western Michigan at 8:00 ET.

Both Toledo and Western Michigan opened their respective 2020 season with wins over the MAC East's two bottom teams. Toledo led longtime rival Bowling Green (schools are about 25 miles apart) 21-0 at the end of the first quarter and cruised to a 38-3 lead, running up 524 yards while holding BG to just 267. Western Michigan actually trailed Akron 7-3 but opened a 30-13 lead at the half, before scoring 28 unanswered second-half points for a 58-13 win. It's fair to say, this contest will be a much more competitive game.

Toledo's Jason Candle begins his fifth season at Toledo, after he replaced Matt Campbell in 2015. Campbell left to take the Iowa St job and Candle coached the Rockets to 32-17 Boca Raton Bowl win over Temple. He led Toledo to three straight bowls from 2016-18 but lost all three. Toledo came up short of a bowl last season and its 6-6 record snapped a run of NINE consecutive winning seasons. Western Michigan's Tim Lester has had BIG shoes to fill, taking over in 2017, after PJ Fleck led the Broncos to a 13-1 season (and a Cotton Bowl bid vs Wisconsin) in 2016. His first team went 6-6 (no bowl) but the Broncos have gone to a bowl each of the last two seasons, although they've lost both, finishing 7-6 each season (more later).

Eli Peters was the returning QB at Toledo but had some challengers. He held them off and looked good in his first action of 2020, going 20 of 32 for 314 yards with four TDs and zero INTs. Four different players caught TD passes, three WRs and RB Koback. Koback had 1,187 rushing yards last season (12 TDs) but had a modest 74 last week, as backfield partner Seymour led with 93 yards on 7.2 YPC. Not to worry, Toledo ran for 310 yards on 6.0 YPC. The defense held BG in check and forced three turnovers.

Kaleb Eleby (redshirted last season ) but played well at QB for the Broncos, completing 12 of 16 for 262 yards with three TDs and no INTs. The running game, which will miss Bellamy (1,472 yards and 23 TDs last season), ran for 218 yards on 5.6 YPC. Jefferson had 70 yards on 7.8 YPC and Tyler had 68 yards on 7.6 YPC (each scored a TD). WR Eskridge was injured last season but had three catches totaling 114 yards (38.0 YPC) with two going for TDs. 

Here's the rub. Toledo has won EIGHT of the last 10 meetings but I'm far from sold on this year's team, coming off its 6-6 record last year (see above). Toledo was just 1-5 SU a on the road last season, including 0-4 in MAC games, getting outscored 170-58 (that's 42.5-to-14.5 PPG!). Meanwhile, Western Michigan was 6-0 SU at home last season (will take a seven-game home winning streak into this one), going 4-0 at home in MAC games by outscoring opponents 153-72 (that's 38.3-to-18.0 PPG).  

Western Michigan ended last season by losing to a depleted Northern Illinois team, which cost them the West Divison title and then in the First Responder Bowl against Western Ky, a too-many-me-on-the-field penalty sealed a 23-20 loss. I like WMU's chances of winning the West in 2020 and a win here, gives them the tiebreaker over Toledo, which with a SIX-game schedule, is HUGE. Home team gets the "W" and COVER!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the TB Bucs at 8:20 ET.

When the Tampa Bay Bucs and the New Orleans Saints met in Week 1, it featured the first game ever to involve two QBs in their 40s, Tom Brady and Drew Brees. However, that was hardly the ONLY storyline, as those particular 40-year-old QBs are QUITE special. Brees was the NFL's all-time leader in yards passing with 77,416 and passing TDs with 547. Brady was second in both categories with 74,571 and 541. The Saints won that Week 1 game 34-23 but as teams meet again in Week 9, the 6-2 Bucs sit atop the NFC South with the 5-2 Saints right on their heels. 

Brees is completing 73.1% for 1,898 yards with 13 TDs and just three INTs, while Brady's completing 66.2% for 2,189 yards with 20 TDs and only four INTs. Brees still has more career passing yards than Brady (about 3,000 more) but TB 12 now leads Brees in career TD passes, 561 to 560. Brees, who has had shoulder issues this season, has played almost the entire season with WR Michael Thomas (caught an NFL single-season record 149 passes in 2019. He has practiced on a limited basis this week but the Saints have yet to make a firm commitment on his status. As for Brady, he threw two INTs and was sacked three times in the opener but has since led the Bucs to a 6-1 record with 18 TDs and just two INTs.

RB Kamara didn't sign a new deal with the Saints until right before the 2020 season opened but he's run for 431 yards (5.0 YPC) with four TDs, while leading the team in receptions with 55 (three TD catches), The Bus have a solid RB as well in Jones, who has 529 yards (4.5 YPC) with four TDs.  WR Evans has 30 catches and a team-high seven TD catches, while fellow WR Miller has 25 catches (two TDs), averaging a team-high 16.0 YPC. Then there's Gronk, who is back in form after catching 14 passes the last three games, adding one TD catch in each game. Of course, the HUGE news out of Tampa recently has been that the Buccaneers activated wide receiver Antonio Brown from the suspended list earlier in the week. They signed the former Steeler, Raider and Patriot on Oct 27. "He'll have his role," Bucs head coach Bruce Arians said. "It could be 10 plays, it could be 35 plays. I wouldn't anticipate 60 plays, for sure, but we'll just see how it goes." Arians said Brown was "full speed" in his first workout with his new team.

I had the Saints in that Week 1 win but will "Back the Bucs" in this one. Tampa Bay's defense is third in yards allowed (299.5 per game), tied for first in takeaways (14) and tied for 2nd in sacks (28). However, the most important defensive number is always points allowed and the Bucs are allowing 20.6 PPG, compared to the 28.1 PPG allowed by the Saints OK, the Bucs have traditionally been a VERY poor home favorite but that was ALL pre-TB 12. Tampa Bay has played three home games in 2020, beating the Panthers 31-17, the Chargers 38-31 and the Packers 38-10. This is Tampa Bay's LONE home game in a four-game stretch and a win means the Bucs will extend their lead over the Saints to 1 1/2-games (two up in the loss column). Lay it!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AFC/NFC Game of the Month is on the Arz Cardinals at 4:25 ET.

The Dolphins and Cards are both 2020 surprises. Miami's playoff appearance in 2016 is its ONLY one over the previous 11 seasons. The Dolphins had gone 18-30 in the three seasons since that 2016 playoff appearance but enter this contest 4-3, having won FOUR of five, including three straight. Arizona was 13-3 back in 2015 but followed with four straight non-winning seasons, including a combined 8-23-2 record the last two seasons. However, the Cards come off their bye week at 5-2 and also enter this game on a THREE-game winning streak. Drawing top-billing in this game will be former first-round QB picks Kyler Murray (No. 1 overall in 2019) and Tua Tagovailoa (No. 5 in 2020).

The Dolphins made the decision to bench veteran QB Ryan Fitzgerald and give Tua his first career start in Miami's Week 8 game against the Rams. Last Monday's headline read: Tua wins his first NFL start! Can't argue with Miami's 28-17 win over the LA Rams but didn't Miami win DESPITE Tua? He fumbled on his first pass attempt as Rams star defensive tackle Aaron Donald knocked the ball loose, setting up the Rams on Miami's 15-yard line. Three plays later, it was 7-0 LA. However, the Dolphins scored 28 consecutive first-half points to take a 28-7 lead, thanks in large part to four turnovers (two interceptions, two fumbles) by Rams QB Jared Goff. One fumble was returned 78 yards for a TD plus Miami added an 88-yard punt return TD, as well. As for Tua, he completed 12 of 22 for 93 yards with one TD (zero INTs). His longest completion was for 15 yards and his TD pass was a three-yarder.  Miami's running game has not been ANY help, averaging just 98.0 YPG on 3.6 YPC. Myles Gaskins leads the team with 387 yards rushing on just 3.9 YPC and two TDs. WRs Parker (30 catches / 12.2 YPC / 3 TDs) and Williams (14 catches / 16.3 YPC / 5 TDs) will give Tua some quality targets but can he deliver the ball to them? We'll see. Miami's defense allows 376.0 YPG (middle-of-the-road) but only 18.6 PPG, the lowest of any team!

That defense will get a good test vs Murray and the Arizona offense. Murray is completing 66.8% for 1,847 yards with 13 TDs and seven INTs. He adds 437 yards rushing on 6.7 YPC with seven TDs. Drake has turned into a solid RB, rushing for 512 yards on 4.3 YPC with four TDs. While Miami averages under 100 YPG on the ground (see above), Arizona averages 160.7 YPG on 5.2 YPC. Future HOF Larry Fitzgerald is still around but he averages just 7.1 YPC on 29 receptions (zero TDs). However, Hopkins has 57 catches (12.4 YPC / 3 TDs) and Kirk just 18 receptions but averages 15.4 YPC and five TDs. Arizona's D entered its Week 7 game with Seattle and Russell Wilson allowing just 18.6 PPG but allowed 572 yards and 34 points, as Wilson threw for 388 yards and three TDs. However, Arizona despite trailing by 10 points midway through the 4th quarter, Arizona came back for a 37-34 OT win, Seattle's only loss of 2020. BTW,,,The Cardinals picked off Wilson THREE times, the same number of interceptions he's thrown in Seattle's SIX wins, combined.

I talked about Arizona's advantage in the running game earlier and Miami's Gaskin (knee injury) and backup running back Matt Breida (hamstring) did not practice on Wednesday. Then, Gaskin was put on injured reserve Thursday and will have to miss at least three games. Murray has 23 starts under his belt and gets better week-by-week, while Tua makes only his second career start, after a very mediocre first one. What's more, this start comes on the road. The Dolphins are just 5-10 ATS as a non-division road dog, while Arizona comes off a bye on a THREE-game winning streak SU and ATS, with an average margin of victory of 17.0 PPG.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Pac 12 Opener is on Oregon St at 10:30 ET.

The Pac-12 and the Big Ten Conference voted to postpone fall sports back in August but the Big Ten was first to reverse that decision, leaving the Pac 12 as the only Power Five conference still postponing. However, the Pac 12 announced on Sep 24 that it would return to the field with each schools playing a conference-only seven-game schedule (championship game is scheduled for December 18). Finally, the conference's 12 schools begin play on Saturday, Nov 7, with ONE of the six games on the schedule featuring Washington St and Oregon St  meeting in Corvallis. It's a rematch of one of the wildest games in the 2019 Pac-12 season, when last November in Pullman, the Cougars overcame an 11-point deficit in the final 2:10 to win 54-53.

The victory was the last of Mike Leach's eight-year tenure at Washington State. The Cougars lost their regular-season finale to rival Washington, then dropped the Cheez-It Bowl to Air Force. Leach left the program in January for Mississippi State and Nick Rolovich was announced as the new head coach for Washington State on January 13, 2020. Rolovich was hired as the new head football coach at the University of Hawaii back on Nov 27, 2015. Rolovich played QB at Hawaii for two years and in his four seasons at Hawaii, led the Rainbow Warriors to THREE Hawaii Bowl berths (won two of the three). This game marks the debut of Washington State's "run-and-shoot" offense, after eight years of the "Air Raid." The scheme change also comes with a new starting QB, the FOURTH different season-opening starter for the Cougars in as many years. Gardner Minshew and Anthony Gordon were single-season starters at Washington State in 2018 and 2019, and both set various passing records in their abbreviated stints. The running game is led by Max Borghi, who ran for 817 yards (6.4 YPC) with 11 TDs, while also catching 86 passes for another five TDs. WSU's top-three WRs have gone and that trio combined for 221 receptions! However, Bell (54), Harris (47) and Martin (43) give whoever plays QB, plenty of solid targets. Defense IS a problem, as the Cougars allowed 31.4 PPG, including 36.6 PPG in Pac 12 play.

Jonathan Smith was a four-year starter for the Beavers at QB. As a junior in 2000 under Dennis Erickson, he led the Beavers to their greatest season in school history. The Beavers finished 11–1 (a school record for wins), won a share of their first conference title in 36 years and finished fourth in the country. Smith was the MVP of the Fiesta Bowl. He's now the team's head coach and begins his third season. His first ended with a 2-10 record but in 2019, a victory in the above-mentioned game with Washington St would have given OSU a 6-6 record, with the Beavers becoming bowl-eligible. Instead, the Beavers finished 5-7. Oregon State will have a new QB this season as well, as Jake Luton, who passed for 2,714 yards and 28 touchdowns against just three interceptions in 2019, is now with the NFL's Jacksonville Jaguars. Luton's backup a season ago, Tristan Gebbia, will make the start on Saturday. RB Pierce (873 yards / 6.0 YPC / 6 TDs) is also gone but Jefferson is primed for a HUGE year. He ran for 1,380 yards as a freshman and battled injuries last season but still ran for 685 yards on 4.8 YPC with eight TDs. Reports are that the defense has made major strides under DC Tim Tibesar and this is "Year 2" in his system. The Beavers have SEVEN of their top-eight tacklers back on defense, including pass-rushing linebacker Hamilcar Rashed Jr. returns after a 2019 season in which he racked up 22.5 tackles for loss and 14 sacks.

OSU and WSU combined for 48 points in the fourth-quarter of last season's shoot-out,  with WSU scoring the game-winning TD with just TWO seconds remaining. Washington St opens the season with a new head coach, a new offensive scheme and a new QB. Meanwhile, Oregon St ended last season covering FIVE of its last six games, while pulling THREE outright upsets. Throw in a little "revenge" motive from last season and the play is on the Beavers!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Month is on Clemson at 7:30 ET.

The marquee matchup on Saturday (and the Game of the CFB 2020 season to-date) is No. 1 Clemson (7-0) at No. 4 Notre Dame (6-0). You may have heard that Trevor Lawrence will NOT play, meaning freshman D.J. Uiagalelei will line up under center for the Tigers for the second straight Saturday. He passed for 342 yards and two TDs plus ran for a third, as Clemson came back from a 28-7 halftime deficit to beat Boston College 34-28 (Tigers were favored by 26 1/2-points). Clemson has won 28 consecutive games against ACC opponents and 40 straight regular season games, the second-longest streak of all-time. Notre Dame is off a less-than-impressive win as well, winning 31-13 at Ga Tech as a three-TD road favorite. The Irish will welcome the Tigers to South Bend owning a 12-game winning streak, the longest active among FBS teams.

The ACC has a different feel in 2020, with the addition of Notre Dame and the dissolution of divisions. This season's ACC championship game in Charlotte, N.C. will feature the league's top-two schools in a now 15-team league. Is it possible that this week's game could merely be a prelude to a mid-December rematch? Maybe so but let's concentrate on "first things first!" Uiagalelei hadn't looked all that good in a "mop roll" when Lawrence was sent to the sidelines but he showed plenty of poise in his first career start, last week. Sure, it was only against Boston College AND it was at home. Clearly, playing in South Bend, even without crowds, is an entirely different 'animal.' However, let's NOT forget that while Lawrence was the Heisman front-runner, the two-time ACC offensive POY is RB Etienne (606 yards on 5.9 YPC with 9 TDs plus 29 catches for 2 TDs). He's off back-to-back 'MONSTER' seasons and should get plenty of work here. NINE different players have caught at least one TD, led by WR Rodgers (40 catches / 14.6 YPC / 6 TDs). Clemson's defense has allowed less than 14 PPG each of the last three seasons but is off that pace in 2020, allowing 18.2 PPG.

How good is Notre Dame? The Irish have been unimpressive in wins over Duke, Louisville and Ga Tech (note: those schools are a combined 4-14). I do NOT get the hype surrounding QB Ian Book, who looks no better than average to me. He completes 61.3% for 1,225 yards (7 TDs / 1 INT) and has added five rushing TDs. The Notre Dame running game is strong, as Williams (600 yards on 5.7 YPC / 7 TDs) leads a unit averaging 2310 YPG on 5.1 YPC. As for ND's receiving corps, TE Mayer leads with 15 catches (are you kidding me?). Notre Dame's defense is allowing only 10.3 PPG but again, the team's six 'victims' are a combined 8-27 (.229).

Not a single Notre Dame opponent has a winning record, so its defensive stats mean little to me. Yes, Clemson's D is allowing almost five PPG more than in the last three seasons but here in 2020, Clemson has held FIVE of its seven opponents to a season-low in total yards. Clemson would be laying more than double-digits with Lawrence and my bet says  Uiagalelei will be just fine and Etienne will be a STAR! Lay the 'cheap' number!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on Florida at 3:30 ET.

"The World's Largest Cocktail Party" will be played in Jacksonville on Saturday, as No. 5 Georgia (4-1) takes on and No. 8 Florida (3-1). The two SEC East schools square off as top-10 teams for the THIRD consecutive season, with Georgia (which owns a 52-43-2 series lead) looking for its FOURTH straight win in the series. "It doesn't clinch it or seal anything, but whoever wins this game certainly is putting themselves in the driver's seat to get to Atlanta," Florida head coach Dan Mullen said (Georgia is seeking a fourth straight SEC title).

Florida is dealing with injuries, suspensions and potential COVID-19 absences but returned from a three-week layoff (COVID issues) to beat Missouri 41-17 last Saturday. The Gators had a near-perfect pass/run balance in 2018, passing for 213.5 YPG, while rushing for 213.2 YPG but last season Florida passed for 305 yards and ran for 130. That's continued in 2020 with QB Trask completing 68.3% for 1,341 yards in four games (335 per) with 18 TDs and just two TDs, while Florida is averaging only 133.8 YPG rushing but on 4.8 YPC. The team's leading rusher (Pierce) has just 169 yards but averages 5.0 YPC. 6-5 TE Pitts has 22 catches, averaging 16.1 YPC with seven TDs and WR Toney also has 22 catches with six TDs (13.5 YPC). Florida's defense was AWFUL the first three games, allowing 100 points but finally showed up against Missouri, holding the Tigers to 17 points on just 248 yards.

One could say it was "only Missouri," but the Georgia offense has been VERY underwhelming in 2020. QB Stetson Bennett ignited the offense when he came off the bench in the opener at Arkansas, completing 20 of 29 for 211 yards with two TDs and no INTs in a 37-10 win. Bennett had five TDs without an INT in Georgia's 3-0 start but in the Bulldogs' 41-24 loss at Alabama and last Saturday's 14-3 win at Kentucky, he has just two TD passes and FIVE interceptions. Bennett only has one quality receiver, Jackson (24 catches / 14.5 YPC / one TD) and Georgia's running game is better than Florida's (175.2 YPG) but NOT by much. Georgia arrived in Tuscaloosa for its showdown with Alabama ranking first nationally in rushing defense (38.3 YPG), second in total defense (236.7 YPG) and tied for fifth in scoring defense (12.3 PPG).

However, Alabama shredded Georgia's defense with 41 points on 564 yards and Florida comes into this game averaging 42.0 PPG on 476.5 YPG. I'll take the points but expect a Florida outright win.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on Iowa at 12:00 ET.

Mel Tucker was an assistant at Ohio St under Jim Tressel when the Buckeyes won a national championship and also was part of  a national championship team at Alabama under Nick Saban. His first head coaching job came at Colorado in 2019, with the Buffs going 5-7. However, when Michigan State's all-time winningest coach Mark Dantonio stepped down at the end of 2019, Tucker resigned as Colorado's head coach to accept the same position at Michigan State. Tucker's contract at Michigan State is worth $5.5 million annually for six years; more than double his contract at Colorado (not a tough choice, because loyalty and honoring contracts have NO place in college football). His debut for Michigan St turned into a 'nightmare,' as the Spartans lost 38-27 at home to Rutgers (as a  9 1/2-point favorite), turning the ball over SEVEN times! The Scarlet Knights broke a 21-game losing streak in the Big Ten with the victory. However, he made history last week as his team surprised archrival Michigan 27-24, as just over a three-TD underdog. Tucker became the first Spartans coach to record his first overall victory against the Wolverines. The Spartans will try to carry that momentum over to Iowa in a Big Ten game on Saturday.

Kirk Ferentz was hired as Iowa's 26th head football coach to replace the retiring Hayden Fry back on December 2, 1998. The team struggled during Ferentz's first two seasons with a combined 4–19 record but the Hawkeyes earned their first bowl bid of the Ferentz era after a 7–5 season in 2001 and then beat Texas Tech in the Alamo Bowl, 19–16. The winning has been consistent ever since, as Iowa has gone 'bowling' in 17 of the previous 19 seasons. Problems arose over the offseason internally and Iowa, which opened No. 24 in the AP's preseason poll, has lost  24-20 at Purdue and 21-20 at home to Northwestern to open a season 0-2 for the first time since 2000.

Michigan St had to replace QB Brian Lewerke and Rocky Lombardi threw for 319 yards with three TDs and two INTs in the loss to Rutgers. He then threw for 323 yards and three TDs (without an interception) at Michigan and found a new favorite target in WR wide Ricky White, as the freshman set a single-game school record with 196 receiving yards. White is averaging 22.3 YPC on his nine receptions, while fellow WSRs Reed (12 / 12.2 YPC / 2 TDs) and Nailor (eight catches / 19.0 YPC) / 1 TD) give Lombardi quality options. However, MSU's running game is averaging just 88.0 YPG on 2.7 YPC.

Iowa also had to replace its starting QB, as Nate Stanley ended a three-year career at Iowa with 68 TDs and 23 INTs, while posting a 27-12 record as a starter, including winning all THREE bowl appearances! Sophomore Spencer Petras has completed just 53.9 percent of his passes in the first two games and was picked off three times by the Wildcats as the Hawkeyes managed just three points in the last three quarters of a one-point loss. "Spencer has done a lot of good things," Ferentz said. "You keep in mind this is his first year starting. Unlike most guys in the past that have played here, he didn't have the luxury of being in spring practice, so this is learning on the job." He'd better start learning fast! Iowa's running game has averaged a modest 136.0 YPG on 4.6 YPC, so as noted, Petras is going have to up his game. Iowa's 2019 defense ranked 2nd in the Big Ten in allowing 14.0 PPG last season (5th nationally) and ranked 5th in the Big Ten in allowing 308.2 YPG (12th nationally). 

"Historically, we have played a lot of close games, so the challenge for us right now is to find a way to get over the hump and make the outcome go a different direction -- in our direction," Ferentz said. "It gets down to being a little more detailed and doing everything collectively a little bit better." Off two "close losses," the Hawkeyes catch the Spartans off their upset of hated rival Michigan St. Iowa is on a 10-4 ATS run in this series and the fact remains that this inexperienced Michigan St team is off that HUGE win AND playing its second straight road game. Iowa has to be motivated (angry?) off those two close losses plus note that MSU is 3-9 ATS off a SU win the last two seasons, as well as being on a 3-11 ATS run vs Big Ten opponents. Great "situation" for a two-TD (or more) win by the Hawkeyes.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye Opener is on Michigan at 12:00 ET.

Michigan opened the season ranked No. 16 in the AP's preseason poll but of course didn't play its first game until Oct 24. The Wolverines won impressively 42-24 at Minnesota in their season opener but then lost last Saturday at home 27-24 to Michigan St as a three-TD favorite. Fans and alumni are getting tired of Harbaugh's lack of success against Michigan's top rivals, as the Wolverines are 8-13 against Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State and Wisconsin during Harbaugh's five-plus year tenure.

Tom Allen was hired back in 2016 to serve as defensive coordinator on head coach Kevin Wilson's staff at Indiana. However, on December 1, 2016, Indiana athletic director Fred Glass named Allen head coach after Wilson's sudden resignation, forcing Allen to make his coaching debut during the team's final game of the season at the 2016 Foster Farms Bowl, where the Hoosiers lost 26-24 to Utah. Allen's first two teams each went 5-7 but he quickly elevated Indiana's recruiting posture. Allen's third season was 2019 and he led Indiana to its first 7-2 start since 1993, earning the school's first top-25 ranking since 1994. Indiana finished the regular season with an 8-4 record, its first eight-win since 1993. The Hoosiers lost another close bowl game to cap the season, falling to Tennessee 23-22 in the Gator Bowl. Indiana opened 2020 with a dramatic 36-35 overtime win at home vs Penn State, then followed with a methodical 37-21 win at Rutgers on Saturday. Indiana is 2-0, giving the school its best start in the Big Ten since 1991, while the Hoosiers' No. 13 ranking is the school's highest since it was ranked 11th back in 1987.

Michigan dominated Minnesota(which was coming off an 11-win season), as Joe Milton (making his first career start at QB) completed 15 of 22 passes for 225 yards and a touchdown plus rushed for 52 yards and another score. Michigan ran for 253 yards on 31 carries, an 8.3 average, while scoring five rushing TDs. That was supposed to be an excellent effort but then we saw Minnesota lose 45-44 (OT) to a sad-sack Maryland team. Milton passed for 300 yards last week (but on 51 attempts) and ran for 59 yards but Michigan scored just 24 points. Michigan scored on just FOUR of 12 possessions, finishing the game just 7 of 17 on third-down conversations. The defense contributed to the loss as well, allowing 449 yards.

Allen's forte is defense and the Indiana D has forced THREE turnovers in each of its first two games. QB Michael Penix Jr threw for three TDs and added one rushing in the win over Rutgers. However, he's completing a modest 58.1% after two games for 408 yards. The Hoosiers have NO running game, averaging 75.0 YPG on 2.3 YPC. As Penix said after the Rutgers win, "The defense gave us great field position. I feel like it is a team effort. The defense causes turnovers whenever the opponent was backed up, and that gave us a short field. We took advantage of it." As for head coach Tom Allen, he still believes there is another level that the Hoosiers can reach as they head into Saturday's home matchup with Michigan. "It's about us playing our best football." "To me that's the focus. We haven't done that yet."

I like Allen and what he's done at Indiana and Harbaugh is one of my least favorite coaches but Michigan IS the better team AND is coming off an embarrassing home loss to hated rival Michigan St. The Hoosiers offense has shown no real rhythm plus Indiana comes in just 3-7 ATS as a home dog under Allen. Most importantly, Indiana hasn't beaten Michigan since 1987.  Harbaugh NEEDS a win and gets it here, "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Friday Night Lights (Part 2) is on Boise St at 9:45 ET.

The 2020 college football season was surely expected to be "unlike any other." Just ask BYU, as NINE of the 12 schools on its schedule originally decided to NOT play in 2020. BYU plays football as an Independent and had to scramble to patch together a 2020 schedule. However, the four conferences that opted out in August, reversed field in September. BYU's current head coach is Kalani Sitake, who took over in 2016. The Cougars went 9-4 in his first season, capping the year with a win in the Poinsettia Bowl. However, BYU followed with a 4-9 bowl-less 2017 campaign and in 2018, the team's win in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl allowed them to finish above .500 at 7-6. Sitake was feeling some 'heat' from the BYU "faithful" in 2019 after a 2-4 start but a five-game winning streak made BYU 7-4 bowl eligible and Sitake was rewarded with a contract extension through 2023. However, the Cougars lost their regular season final 13-3 at SD State and then lost the Hawaii Bowl to Hawaii 34-30, finishing at 7-6, again. No one expected much from BYU in 2020 but BYU's 7-0 start is its first since 2001 and its No. 9 ranking places the school inside the AP top-10 for the first time since November 7, 2009.

The Cougars visit the famous "Blue Turf" of Boise's Albertsons Stadium on Friday night to take on No. 21 Boise State. The Broncos play in the MWC, which originally opted out of the fall FB season but agreed to return to play for a conference only eight-game schedule. The Broncos have opened 2-0. Bryan Harsin returned to Boise State to be its head coach on December 11, 2013, replacing his mentor Petersen, who left for the University of Washington. In his first season at the helm, he led his team to a Mountain West Championship win over Fresno State (28–14) and earned a spot in the Fiesta Bowl vs Arizona. The Broncos went on to win the Fiesta Bowl 38–30 and Harsin won 12 games in his first season. There's been little drop-off since, as Harsin has led the Broncos to 10-plus wins in FIVE of his six seasons.

This Friday contest figures to be a high-scoring affair as Boise State has averaged 45.5 points (third in the nation) and 454.5 yards (22nd) over its two first games, while BYU is averaging 44.4 points (seventh) and 527.7 yards (sixth). The Cougars have topped 40 points in six of their first seven games for the first time in program history. If BYU wins here, it could easily wind up unbeaten. The same holds for Boise St as currently, the team's remaining schedule doesn't feature any likely 'danger' spots.

BYU quarterback Zach Wilson originally committed to play at Boise State in June 2017 but reneged on his pledge six months later when schools such as BYU and Iowa made late offers. He chose the Cougars and became the starter during his freshman season. Now, in 2020, he is soaring up the list of top college QBs, and some draft experts have him as a top-10 overall pick if he should enter the NFL draft after this season. Wilson has completed 74.6% for 2,152 yards with 19 TDs and just two INTs. All five OL starters returned but no RB ran for more than 359 yards in 2019. However, Allgeier has run for 587 yards (on 6.5 YPC with 7 TDs) and the Cougars are averaging 190.0 YPG on the ground (4.9 YPC). Three standout WRs all graduated but Wilson's made do with WRs Milne (42 catches / 16.8 YPC / 6 TDs) and Romney (26 catches / 19.8 YPC / 2 TDs) plus TE Rex, who has just 16 catches but for four TDs.

Boise has played just TWO games against overmatched opponents so to some extent one has to project. Case in point is that Boise State sophomore QB Hank Bachmeier (20 of 28 with 268 yards with three TDs and zero INTs in Boise's season opener) didn't travel with the team Saturday to a 49-30 victory over Air Force. Bryan Harsin has declined to shed light on the reason for Bachmeier's absence. What we do know is this. Junior transfer Jack Sears was superb in Bachmeier's place, completing 17 of 20 passes for 280 yards and three touchdowns and also rushing for a score. RB George Holani extended Boise State's streak of 1,000-yard rushers to 11 straight seasons with 1,014 yards in 2019. He had 100 yards rushing in Boise's first game but was injured vs Air Force after two carries for five yards. However, RB Van Buren played well stepping in for Holani with 70 yards and two TDs.

Boise State's home dominance goes back a LONG way but let me stick with its home record under Harsin. He entered this season 35-5 SU at home and after the Broncos' home win their season opener gives them a eight-game home winning streak heading into this contest. BYU is 2-0 ATS in 2020 as a road favorite but entered this season on a 2-7 ATS record in that role the previous three seasons. I will NOT pass up Boise St as a home dog!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFC Championship Game Rematch is on the GB Packers at 8:20 ET.

The Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers both went 13-3 and met in the NFC championship game in 2019. The result was a DOMINATING San Francisco win, as the 49ers led 27-0 at the half and cruised to a 37-20. It's a rematch of that contest in this Week 9 Thursday Night game, as the 49ers again welcome the Packers to Levi's Stadium. The 49ers opened 2-3, then followed with B2B wins (24-16 at home against the Rams and 33-6 at the Pats), but then lost 37-27 at Seattle last Sunday. The 4-4 Niners find themselves in last-place in the NFL's toughest division, behind the 6-1 Seahawks, 5-2 Cards and 5-3 Rams. The Packers sprinted to a 4-0 SU & ATS start but after a bye (Week 5), have sandwiched a 35-20 Week 7 win at Houston with a 38-10 loss at Tampa Bay (Week 6) and a 28-22 home loss to Minnesota (Week 8). Green Bay is 5-2 and just a half-game up on the Bears in the NFC North.

Aaron Rodgers entered last week's game with Minnesota on quite a roll, except for the team's 38-10 loss at Tampa. Rodgers was 16 of 35 for only 160 yards without a TD pass and was intercepted twice in that one. However, in Green Bay's five wins, he'd thrown for 1,497 yards (299.4 per game) with 17 TDs and not a SINGLE interception in 173 attempts! Rodgers had a solid game vs the Vikings, completing 27 of 41 for 291 yards with three TDs and zero INTs. However, RB Aaron Jones (389 yards on 5.2 YPC and 5 TDs plus 18 catches for 2 TDs) missed his second straight game with a calf injury and Green Bay was able to run for just 109 yards. In contrast, Minnesota's Dalvin Cook ran for 163 yards with three TDs and added a TD catch. Green Bay WR Davante Adams had missed two games this season but had 13 receptions for 196 yards and two TDs in Week 7 and while his seven catches last Sunday only totaled 53 yards, THREE went for TDs. He has 43 catches and seven TDs in five games this season, while TE Tonyan has five TDs in a modest 23 catches. Green Bay's defense has underperformed from last season, allowing 26.7 PPG after allowing 19.6 PPG in last season.

San Francisco's loss at Seattle not only dropped them into last place but adding insult to injury, TE Kittles (foot) and QB Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle) both got hurt and each will miss multiple games. It is possible that neither player will suit up again this season. The team's best RB Mostert (303 yards on 5.9 YPC) is out with an injury and after Jeff Wilson Jr. rushed for a career-high three TDs and 112 yards in the win over Houston, he sustained a high left ankle sprain that landed him on injured reserve. The 49ers ran for just 52 yards (2.4 YPC) against Seattle. Nick Mullens replace Jimmy G last week and completed 18 of 25 for 238 yards with two TDs and zero INTs. Mullens is completing 70.4% for 852 yards with seven TDs and five INTs (5-5 ratio prior to last week).

I'll admit that San Francisco as a home dog (climbing to almost a TD by Wednesday) seems tempting. However, this team has SO many key injuries and now COVID issues, that the 49ers are a 'shell' of the club which led KC 20-10 in last year's Super Bowl midway through the fourth quarter. THREE of San Francisco's four wins have come over the NY Giants, NY Jets and the NE Pats, a trio which owns a combined record of 3-20. Green Bay gets some revenge from last year's NFC championship loss and gets its season back on track with a comfortable win.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout (Wednesday G.O.M.) is on Miami-Ohio at 7:00 ET.

The Mid-American Conference became the first FBS conference to postpone the fall season because of concerns surrounding the coronavirus pandemic back on Aug 8 but 'reversed field' on Sep 25 by announcing that a season would be played, one which would feature a six-game, conference-only schedule. All 12 MAC schools will open the season Wednesday, Nov 4, and then play their next two games on Tuesdays or Wednesdays before transitioning to Saturdays for the final three weeks. Each team will play five division opponents and one crossover opponent in Week 1, with defending league champion Miami (Ohio) opening at home against Ball State.

Mike Neu started at QB for four seasons at Ball State and as senior, led Ball State to the MAC championship (he was named the MAC MVP and Offensive Player of the Year) He was named the head coach at his alma mater on January 7, 2016 but has yet to having a winning season in four years. The Cardinals are 15-33 over under his tenure, including an 8-24 league record and a 6-18 record in all road games. Chuck Martin coached Grand Valley State (Division II school) from 2004 through 2009, going 74-7 in six seasons. He made the championship game three times, winning twice. He was the offensive coordinator at Notre Dame for the 2012 season, when the Fighting Irish finished the regular season with a 12–0 record and earned a berth in the BCS National Championship Game. It was announced on Dec 3, 2013, that Martin would be leaving his position at Notre Dame to take over as the head coach at Miami University for the 2014 season. He orchestrated a "methodical rebuild" in Oxford, resulting in the RedHawks beating Central Michigan 26-21 in the 2019 MAC championship, giving the school its first MAC title since 2010.

Ball St led the MAC in scoring (34.8 PPG) and total offense (463.0 YPG) and QB Drew Pitt (64.3%, 2,918 yards / 24 TDs and 7 INTs). RB Caleb Huntley (1,275 yards on 5.1 YPC with 12 TDs) and WR Justin Hall (61 catches / 6 TDs) are all back. The defensive outlook is NOT as good, after the Cardinals allowed 31.4 PPG on 424.7 YPG.

Miami QB Brett Gabbert is expected to build off a 'rookie season' in which he passed for 2,411 yards with 11 TDs and eight INTs (he was named MAC freshman-of-the-year). The OL has four returning starters and RB Jaylon Bester is back healthy for his senior year (741 yards and 14 TDs in 2019). The defense is solid by conference standards, allowing 28.1 PPG (4th) on 381.9 YPG (3rd).

The these schools have met the last four seasons in their respective regular season finales but find themselves opening this COVID-shorted 2020 season. Note that after having beaten Ball St in 2016, 2017 and 2018, the RedHawks lost at Ball St 41-27 in 2019's regular-season finale. FYI...Miami had already clinched the East title and a berth in the MAC title game. Methinks that Miami will remember that loss and note that Miami was 5-0 at home in 2019 and will take an EIGHT-game home winning streak into this game. What's more, head coach Chuck Martin owns a 23-8 record in his last 31 MAC contest. 'Short' price. Lay it!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Sea Seahawks at 4:25 ET.

The Seattle Seahawks came back from its bye week 5-0 but the team had been 'walking a tightrope' for most of those five games, as THREE of Seattle's five victories had come down to the game's final 15 seconds. Seattle entered its SNF contest in Arizona with a defense that had allowed a league-high 431.2 YPG. Seattle led 34-24 midway through the fourth quarter but couldn't hang on, as Murray drove the Cards 75 yards to close within three points with just 2;28 remaining. Seattle punted it back to Arizona, which tied the game with a 44-yard FG on the final play of regulation and won it with a FG in OT.

5-1 Seattle welcomes the 4-3 SF 49ers to CenturyLink Field this Sunday. The 49ers are not just defending NFC West champs but they are also defending NFC champs. The Niners opened 2-3 but have won two in a row (24-16 at home against the Rams and 33-6 at the Pats) to get back to 4-3. However, the 49ers still find themselves in last-place in the NFL's toughest division, behind the 5-2 Cards and Rams plus the 5-1 Seahawks. Safe to say, this is a big game for both teams.

Jimmy Garoppolo was 20 of 25 for 277 yards in San Francisco's 33-6 rout of the Pats, in what was his first game against his former team. However, he didn't throw a TD and had three INTs. Leading rusher Mostert sat out with an injury but Jeff Wilson Jr. rushed for a career-high three TDs and 112 yards but sustained a high left ankle sprain that landed him on injured reserve. TE Kittle is back from an early injury and has 31 catches in his last four games. The WR corps is mediocre at best and who knows who will be healthy among the RBs. The San Francisco defense is again playing well, allowing 19.4 PPG, the same it allowed in 2019

Russell Wilson was widely considered the front-runner for the NFL's MVP award through Week 6, as he had completed 72.8% for 1,502 yards while leading the league with 19 TD passes (just three INTs) and with a 129.8 QB rating. Wilson completed 33 of 50 passes for 388 yards and three TDs vs Arizona but he also had THREE costly interceptions. Wilson  is also a key part of Seattle's rushing attack, running for 237 yards on 8.2 YPC. RB Carson adds a team-high 323 yards on 4.9 YPC and three TDs plus also has 22 receptions with three TDs. Lockett has 45 catches and a team-high seven TDs, while fellow WR Metcalf is the "big play" receiver, with 24 catches, a 21.6 YPC average and five TDs. The two-headed TE duo of Olsen and Dissly combine for 27 catches and two TDs. However, the defense had better get better, fast!

"There were so many opportunities to win the football game," Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll said of last Sunday's game, in which a 48-yard touchdown reception by DK Metcalf in overtime was wiped out by a penalty. "We've been in the situation where we count on things to happen in the right place, happen in the right situations and the right complementary play occurs, and we just missed it." QB Russell Wilson added, "I thought we played a great game except for those three plays. Those are my fault. There's so much that we can do, and we have so much confidence. Our confidence is not going to waver. They're a great football team, too. We knew it was going to be a battle."

Except for a win over the Rams in Week 5, San Francisco's three other wins have come over the sad-sack Giants and Jets (a combined 1-13) and the Pats, who are beginning to look like a team 'going nowhere!' The 49ers come in with significant injuries on "both sides of the ball," while Russell Wilson comes off losing a game for the first time in his nine-year career when leading by four or more points at halftime. He had been 59-0 in such situations. I'm "all over" the Seahawks!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Month is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET.

The Pittsburgh Steelers lost "Big Ben" in Week 2 of 2019 and missed the playoffs for the second consecutive season last year. However, the 38-year-old Roethlisberger is playing with a surgically repaired right elbow in 2020 and is "looking good!" When the Steelers beat the Eagles 38-29 in Week 5, it marked the first time Pittsburgh had opened 4-0 in 41 years (hard to believe but true!). The Steelers have tacked on two more wins since then, 38-7 at home to the Browns and 27-24 at Tennessee, in a 'battle' of unbeatens. When Seattle lost at Arizona in Week 7's SNF, Pittsburgh stood as the last remaining undefeated NFL team (6-0 and 5-1 ATS). The Steelers will carry that mantle into a game at Baltimore on Sunday with the Ravens, who are 5-1, losing only a MNF game to the KC Chiefs (anyone know if KC is any good?). The winner of Sunday's contest will move on as the AFC North's first place team, a game Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin labeled as the league's game of the week. Reasonable enough, don't you think.

Roethlisberger is completing 68.2% for 1,446 yards with 13 TDs and four INTs (QB rating of 105.2). RB James Connor (451 yards on 4.7 YPC with four TDs) leads a rushing game averaging 129.7 YPG. WRs JuJu Smith-Shuster (32 catches) and Diontae Johnson (24 catches) each have three TD receptions but NEITHER is averaging as much as 10.0 YPC. Chase Claypool, a second-year WR from Notre Dame, has 18 catches but averages 18.5 YPC with four TDs. Three of those TD plus a rushing TD came in Pittsburgh's 38-29 Week 5 win over Philly. TE Ebron has been solid with 22 catches and one TD. The Pittsburgh defense allows 19.7 PPG (6th-best) but is No. 1 in total D (286.3 YPG), first in sacks (26) and second in rushing yards allowed (68.8 YPG).

Baltimore was just 2-2 through the first four games of the 2019 season but the Ravens would win their final 12 games, covering NINE of their last 10. QB Lamar Jackson was league MVP, posting a 113.3 QB rating (36-6 ratio) while rushing for 1,206 yards (6.9 YPC / 7 TDs), which set a single-record for QBs. Baltimore set a single season record for team rushing yards and became the first team since at least 1950 to average 200-plus pass YPG (201.6) and 200-plus rush YPG (206) in the same season. The D was not quite in the class of the Ray Lewis era units but the Ravens ranked 3rd in points allowed (17.6 PPG) and 4th in yards allowed (300.6 YPG). However, the Ravens were unceremoniously bounced from the playoffs last season, losing 28-12 at home to the Titans as 10-point favorites.

Baltimore and Jackson sure have "something to prove" in 2020 and while they are 5-1, a 34-20 home loss to the Chiefs on MNF (Week 3), "ups the ante" on this first-place showdown with Pittsburgh. Jackson is playing well, completing 63.0% for 1,135 yards with 10 TDs and two INTs, while again leading the team in rushing with 346 yards on 6.9 YPC with two TDs. The running games is averaging a healthy 164.3 YPG but that's down from the team's NFL record 206.0 YPG last season, RB Ingram joined Jackson as a 1,000-yard rusher in 2019 but he has just 225 yards so far this season, as Edwards and Dobbins join him as a rotating three-back attack. WR Brown leads with 26 catches (14.5 YPC but just one TD), while the trio of Snead, Boykin and Duvernoy have combined for 32 catches (also just one TD, combined). TE Andrews has 20 catches and a team-high five TD receptions. The Baltimore D is allowing 339.8 YPG (53 yards more per game than Pittsburgh) but the Ravens are allowing a league-low 17.3 PPG. And after all, isn't that the MOST important stat?

The Ravens are the old Cleveland Browns and this rivalry NEVER lost its intensity with the move to Baltimore. The Ravens are coming off a bye week and get back on the field on a 'money-making' 12-4 regular season ATS run. As noted above, after that MNF loss to KC, the Ravens NEED a "W" here, badly. That's my bet!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET.

The Tennessee Titans opened the season 3-0 and then a COVID-19 outbreak had their Week 4 showdown with the Steelers was rescheduled for Week 6. The team's Week 5 game with 4-0 Buffalo was pushed back to a Tuesday night and after winning their first three games by a combined margin of just NINE points (going 0-3 ATS), the Titans routed the Bills 42-16. Tennessee then won a 42-36 OT at Houston, before losing their first game of the season 27-24 to Pittsburgh, The Steelers led that game 27-7 in the late third quarter, before the Titans nearly sent the game to OT but Gostkowski missed a game-tying FG with just 19 seconds left.

The Bengals were coming off a 2-14 season in 2019 but drafted Heisman-winner Joe Burrow with the first overall pick of the 2020 Draft, Head coach Zac Taylor is in just his second season but felt like Burrow was the type of QB the Bengals could build around. Cincy is just 1-5-1 but despite MANY flaws, the Bengals are 5-2 ATS and have been "right in" every game except their 24-3 loss at Baltimore. 

QB Tannehill has been terrific (68.5% / 1,590 yards with 15 TDs and two INTs / 112.3 QB rating) and RB Henry has been his usual self (663 yards / 4.6 YPC / 7 TDs) for the Titans. However, the Titans' D has NOT been good, allowing 401.8 YPG and 25.2 PPG. The team's 'stop unit' can't "make a stop" on third down, as opponents are converting 61 percent of the time, the worst mark for an NFL team in 30 years. Pittsburgh shown a light on just that last Sunday, converting 13 of 18 on third down tries.

Joe Burrow gets little help from his running game (98.9 YPG on 3.7 YPC) and the team's only RB of note, Joe Mixon (428 yards), will miss a second straight game with a foot injury. The OL has allowed Burrow to be sacked 28 times but the rookie has still managed to complete 66.6% for 2,023 yards with nine TDs and five INTs. The defense is about as bad as Tennessee's, allowing 27.7 PPG on 395.1 YPG.

However, except for that loss at Baltimore, the Bengals have beaten the Jags 33-25 at home, tied the Eagles 23-23 in Philly and and lost FOUR games by margins of just THREE, FIVE, FOUR and THREE points! The Titans have played just two road games in 2020, winning by 16-14 at Denver (2-4) and 31-30 at Minnesota (1-5). Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Big Dog is on Penn St at 7:30 ET.

Ohio St lost a razor-close game to Clemson (29-23) in last year's national semifinals and was ranked No. 2 in the AP's preseason poll, just behind No. 1 Clemson. Clemson got 38 first-place votes to Ohio State's 21 and the Buckeyes finished JUST four points shy of the Tigers' overall point-total. Penn St was 11-2 in 2019, finishing No. 7 in the AP's final poll. The Nittany Lions opened No. 7 in the preseason rankings but like Ohio St, didn't play its first game of 2020 until last Saturday. The two Big Ten rivals had vastly different results last weekend, as the Buckeyes routed the Cornhuskers 52-17, while the Nittany Lions were shocked at Indiana, with the Hoosiers pulling off a 36-35 upset in OT. Ohio St visits Happy Valley as the AP's No. 3-ranked team, while Penn St fell to No. 18.

Ohio St QB Justin Fields comes off an excellent 2019 season (3,273 passing yards with 41 TDs and just three INTs plus 484 rushing yards with 10 TDs) and picked up right where he lost off last Saturday. He completed 20 of 21 (95.2%) for 276 yards with two TDs and no INTs, while running for 54 yards and adding a third TD on the day. He had two WRs top 100 yards, Wilson on seven catches (129) and Olave on six catches (104). Gone from last season's team is JK Dobbins and his 2,003 rushing yards (on 6.7 YPC with 21 TDs), so matching last season's near-perfect run/pass balance (267 RY / 263 PY) may be difficult. Fields led Ohio St in rushing yards in the game but the team did total 215 yards in 4.5 YPC. Ohio State allowed just 13.7 PPG on 260 YPG in 2019 but allowed Nebraska 370 yards last Saturday, although the 'Huskers only scored 17 points.

The Nittany Lions were upset 36-35 at Indiana, as the Hoosiers tied the game with 22 seconds left in regulation on a TD and two-point conversion and then scored another TD and controversial two-pointer to win it in OT (I'd argue Indiana did NOT convert on its two-point try). Penn St allowed just 16.0 PPG on 346 YPG last season so some may ask, how did Indiana score 36 points? Well, I'd like to know how, as well. Penn St held Indiana to a total of just 211 total yards, including 41 rushing yards on 26 attempts (that's 1.6 YPC!). Junior QB Sean Clifford is off a solid sophomore season (2,654 yards with 23 TDs and 7 INTs plus 402 rushing yards and five TDs) and looked very good vs Indiana.  He completed 24 of 35 for 238 yards with three TDs (two INTs didn't help) and also led the team with 119 rushing yards on 7.0 YPC  and a TD. TE Freiermuth led with seven catches (one TD) and WR Dotson caught six balls for an average of 23.5 YPC with one TD. The running game ground out 250 yards on 4.8 YPC.

With Penn State's loss to Indiana last week, Saturday's game between No. 3 Ohio State and No. 18 Penn State has lost some luster but DON'T tell that to Penn St. The Nittany Lions are staring at an 0-2 start for the first time since 2012 and with the specter of losing all championship hopes before November! Penn St beat Ohio St 24-21 here in 2016 but has lost each of the last three meetings. However, those Ohio St wins have been by scores of 39-38, 27-26 (at Penn St) and 29-17, which were all ATS wins by Penn St. I'm not convinced Penn St can pull the upset but feel VERY confident that the Nittany Lions will 'hang in' all game. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Texas at 4:00 ET.

Tom Herman made a HUGE 'splash' at Houston in 2015, leading the Cougars to a 13-1 season which included a 38-24 win over 9th-ranked Florida St as a seven-point underdog. He led Houston to a 9-3 record in 2016 but left before its bowl game to take over at Texas. He's led the Longhorns to THREE straight bowls but his overall record of 25-15 in that three-year span is underwhelming. Texas opened 2020 at 14th in the preseason poll. Mike Gundy took over at Stillwater in 2005 and the Cowboys were just 4-7. However, OSU achieved a winning record in each of the next 14 seasons, fashioning double-digit wins SIX times while going to 14 consecutive bowls (9-5). OSU began 2020 ranked 15th in the AP's preseason poll. 

Texas opened 2-0 this season but then lost back-to-back games against TCU and Oklahoma, dropping the Longhorns from No. 8 in the AP poll to unranked and on the outer edges of the Big 12 race. However, Texas rebounded for a 26-17 home win over Baylor last Saturday. QB Sam Ehlinger has been terrific, completing 61.6% for 1,481 yards with 17 TDs and just five INTs, as 11 different players have caught at least one TD pass. Texas has a WR trio of Moore (21 catches / 15.6 YPC / 6 TDs), Eagles (12 catches / 15.7 YPC / 3 TDs) and Black just eight catches but a 23.5 YPC) plus TE Wiley has six catches but a 24.5 YPC average. Ehlinger is the team's leading rusher as well with 293 yards on 4.5 YPC with seven TDs. A trio of RBs have added 510 rushing yards, as Texas averages 174.8 YPG on the ground (4.7 YPC).

Oklahoma St welcomes Texas to Boone Pickens Stadium 4-0 (3-0 Big 12) and ranked No. 6 in the latest AP poll. OSU won three in a row but then  

had the team's Oct 17 contest with Baylor postponed after the Bears reported a COVID outbreak on their team. OSU was back on the field this past Saturday and beat then-No. 17 Iowa St 24-21. QB Spencer Sanders, who missed two games after suffering an ankle injury early in the opener against Tulsa, returned to complete 20 of 29 passes for 235 yards with one TD (did have two INTs) but also ran for 71 yards and a score. RB Chuba Hubbard carried 25 times for 139 yards for the Cowboys and now has topped 100 yards in THREE straight (478 rushing yards on 5.1 YPC with 5 TDs on the season). Fellow RB Brown has contributed 229 yards (6.2 YPC), as OSU averages 216.3 YPG on the ground. The Cowboys have typically been known for their explosive offenses but the Cowboys' D checks into this contest allowing just 12.0 PPG, 4th-best among FBS teams which have played at least four games.

This is the 35th time the two teams have played (Longhorns own a 25-9 all-time edge) but Oklahoma State has won FOUR of the last five meetings and SEVEN of its last 10 games with the Longhorns. Texas did win 36-30 last year in Austin but the Longhorns haven't won in Stillwater since 2014. So why Texas? To stay relevant, the Longhorns NEED a statement win against Oklahoma State. "I think we're headed towards our 'A' game, and hopefully we can show up and deliver that in Stillwater because we're going to need it," Texas head coach Tom Herman said Monday. "We've got it in us. I know we do. We've been building towards it, for sure." 

The good news for Texas backers is that Herman's Houston and Texas teams are a money-making 16-6-1 ATS as an underdog, which includes 11 OUTRIGHT upsets. Texas needed OT to edge Texas Tech, then lost a two-point decision to TCU and then lost a 4-OT thriller to Oklahoma in a three-week span. The Longhorns returned from an off week to lead Baylor 27-3 before winning 27-16 in holding the Bears to only 316 yards. I'm with coach Herman in believing Texas will bring its "A" game to Stillwater.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye Opener is on West Va at 12:00 ET.

Chris Klieman was working for Craig Bohl at North Dakota St and when Bohl left to take the Wyoming head coaching job, Klieman took over and won back-to-back FCS national championships in 2014 and '15, lost in the semis in 2016, and then won back-to-back again in 2017 and 2018. He left to take over at Kansas St in 2019, having gone 69-6 in a five-year span with FOUR national championships. He's the 35th head coach in Kansas St history and replaced the legendary Bill Snyder. The Wildcats went 8-5 in 2019, including a 48-41 win at Oklahoma, as a 23 1/2-point underdog. The Wildcats lost their season opener of 2020 at home to Arkansas St (35-31 as more than a two-TD favorite) but have since gone 4-0 SU and ATS, including a second straight win over Oklahoma. The Wildcats beat the Sooners 38-35 as 28-point dogs, winning in Manhattan against Oklahoma for the first time since 1960.

Neal Brown spent four years as the head coach at Troy. His first season saw his team go 4-8 but the next three seasons the Trojans went 31-8 overall, including winning all THREE bowl appearances. He was announced as the 35th head football coach of West Va on January 5, 2019 and after a 5-7 first season, the Mountaineers are off to a 3-2 start in 2020. The Mountaineers are coming off a 34-27 loss at Texas Tech but will enter the game as owners of the Big 12's stingiest defense. West Va ranks first in the Big 12 in total defense (261.8 YPG) and in scoring defense (21.8 PPG).

Kansas State (currently No. 16 in the latest AP poll) has had a long tradition of excellence on special teams and heading into Saturday's game, the Wildcats have 55 TDs on kickoff or punt returns since 2005, the most in the FBS. Case in point, Phillip Brooks had two first-half punt-return TDs in K-State's 55-14 win over Kansas last week, earning Big 12 Special Teams Player of the Week honors. His 189 punt return yards and two TDs were school records. He is the first player in Big 12 Conference history to return two punts for TDs in the same game. Starting QB Slylar Thompson (a senior) was lost for the season on Oct 3 with freshman Will Howard taking over. He looked only so-so in finishing up K-State's win over Texas Tech and then in a 21-14 win at TCU. However, he looked good last Saturday, completing 17 of 24 for 243 yards with two TDs and no INTs. Then again, the opponent was 0-5 Kansas. RB Deuce Vaughn is the team's offensive star, rushing for 309 yards (5.1 YPC with five TDs) and catching 17 passes in which he's averaged 27.7 YPC and added three more TDs. The K-State defense allowed 35 points in each of its first two games but has held opponents to just 16.3 PPG the last three.

I noted above the solid play by West Va's defense and offensively, the Mountaineers have a solid QB in Doege, who is completing 64.1% for 1,389 yards with nine TDs and just three INTs. RB Leddie Brown has 592 yards, averaging 5.8 YPC with seven TDs plus has 19 receptions with two TD catches. WRs Wright (28) and James (23) are possession-type receivers, while Ford-Wheaton has just 13 catches but averages 15.2 YPC with three TDs. I'm not sure about Kansas St QB Howard, while his counterpart (Doege) has thrown for 300-plus yards in each of the last two games. K-State's offense will get its toughest test this season against the West Va D and note that West Va has won FOUR straight against Kansas St including THREE in a row ATS. The unranked team is favored for a reason. 

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Friday Night Game of the Month is on Wyoming at 9:45 ET.

The MWC originally decided to cancel fall football in August but had a change of heart, ala the Big Ten. MCA and Pac 12. The Mountain West released its full 2020 football schedule detailing a plan for most of its 12 schools to play eight league games in an eight-week span starting Oct 24. The plan is to play a conference championship game on Dec 19. The league has abandoning its divisional structure this season, meaning the participants in the championship game will be the two teams with the highest conference winning percentage. Hawaii opened its season last Saturday with a 34-19 win at Fresno St and Wyoming lost 37-34 in OT at Nevada. It's Hawaii vs Wyoming Friday night in Laramie.

Hawaii head coach Nick Rolovich left after last season to take the Washington St job and Hawaii hired Todd Graham on January 21, 2020 to become the 24th head football coach in the school history. Graham coached at Rice for one year and then left days after signing an extension to take the Tulsa job. He spent four years there and left for Pittsburgh, where he stayed just one season, leaving controversially for Arizona St. He spent six years at ASU and had been away from college football for two years when he took the Hawaii job. The Rainbow Warriors rolled up 552 yards (323 on the ground on 6.1 YPC) in a 15-point win in their season-opener. QB Cordeiro threw for 229 yards (two TDs) and ran for a team-high 116 yards (8.9 YPC) and another two TDs. However, the defense allowed Fresno St 409 yards but also forced FOUR turnovers (three INTs).

Craig Bohl spent 12 years at North Dakota St where he went 104-32, winning FCS national championships in his final three years (2011-13). His first two Wyoming teams went 6-18 but he's won EIGHT games in three of the last four seasons (exception was 6-6 season in 2018), with Wyoming going 'bowling' three times (won the last two). Returning QB Sean Chambers broke his left fibula on the Cowboys' third play from scrimmage against Nevada last week and the redshirt sophomore is out for the season. Levi Williams, who played in three games last season, finished the game going 16 of 31 for 227 yards with one TD and one INT plus ran for two TDs The Cowboys trailed 28-6 in the late second quarter last Saturday but tied the game at 28-all with 8 1/2-minutes to go. Nevada took a 31-28 lead but Wyoming sent the game into OT on a FG with 23 seconds left, before losing in OT.

Todd Graham has a checkered past but he's led his teams to 10 bowl berths in his 12 years as a head coach. Hawaii is on the mainland for the second straight week plus I really liked what I saw from Wyoming QB Williams. He led an impressive comeback that just fell short. In Xazavian Valladay (1,265 yards on 5.1 YPC in 2019) he has one of the MWC's best RBs, who ran for a modest 87 yards last Saturday but also caught SEVEN passes. The schools are meeting for just the 5th time as MWC foes, with the home team having gone 4-0 SU. I expect that trend to follow here, as Wyoming was 6-0 SU at home in 2019 and enters this contest with an EIGHT-game winning streak at War Memorial Stadium.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:20 ET.

The NFL enters its Week 7 with THREE unbeaten teams. The 5-0 Steelers and 5-0 Titans will square off in Nashville at 1:00 ET and the lone remaining unbeaten, the 5-0 Seahawks will play at Arizona vs the 4-2 Cards. The Raiders were scheduled to host the Bucs in Las Vegas for NBC's Sunday Night Football but had to place four starting offensive linemen plus a safety on the reserve/COVID-19 list. All five players were deemed high-risk contacts and the NFL then announced on Thursday that the Raiders' game against the Bucs had been moved to 4:05 ET "out of an abundance of caution to ensure that a game would be available for fans on Sunday Night Football." This Seattle/Arizona contest will now be Week 7's SNF matchup.

Seattle QB Russell Wilson is widely considered the front-runner for the NFL's MVP award a third of the way through the season, as he's completing 72.8% for 1,502 yards while leading the league with 19 TD passes (just three INTs) and with a 129.8 QB rating. He also contributes to the Seattle running game, rushing for 153 yards on 6.7 YPC with three TDs. RB Carson is the "featured" back and has 289 rushing yards on 4.7 YPC with three TDs. Carlson also has 21 catches with three more TDs. Wilson has an outstanding group of receivers, as Luckett leads with 30 catches but Metcalf has become the big playmaker with 22 catches, a 22.5 YPC average and five TDs. WR Moore has 10 catches (17.3 YPC and three TDs), while TD Olsen adds 15 catches. Seattle's Achilles' Heel is a defense allowing a league-high 431.2 YPG. With scoring way up this year, at least Seattle isn't one of the NINE teams allowing 30-plus PPG (27.8).

Arizona's second-year QB Kyler Murray completed just 9 of 24 attempts against the Cowboys but two went for TDs, including an 80-yarder to Christian Kirk that gave Arizona a 21-0 lead. Murray also rushed for 74 yards and a TD. He's completing 65.9% for 1,487 yards with 10 TDs and six INTs. Those are not quite Wilson-like stats but he's also run for 370 yards (7.3 YPC) with six TDs. RB Kenyan Drake is turning into a solid player, rushing for 4678 yards (4.6 YPC) and four TDs. Future HOF Fitzgerald may have 21 catches but he's averaging only 6.9 YPC without a TD. Hopkins is now the team's "go-to" WR with 47 catches, with Kirk catching 13 passes (18.5 YPC) with three TDs. Arizona owns a HUGE edge on defense, holding opponents to about 100 YPG less than Seattle's D and to just 18.7 PPG (almost 10 PPG less).

Seattle will NOT go 16-0, so a loss is coming and it's a fact that THREE of Seattle's five victories have come down to the game's final 15 seconds. However, Seattle is coming off a bye week (covered FIVE of the last seven in that situation), while Arizona is off its MNF win at Dallas. Murray vs Dalton was a mismatch but can Murray outplay Wilson? My bet says no.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "signature" 37-Club Play is on the NE Patriots at 4:25 ET.

The defending Super Bowl champion KC Chiefs have opened the 2020 season 5-1 and sit atop the AFC West. However, KC is the LONE division winner from 2019 to actually lead its division here in 2020, as the season gets set for Week 7. I won't list all of the reigning division winners 'looking up' to at least ONE team in their respective divisions here but WILL discuss TWO of those seven teams, as they meet Sunday in Foxboro. The San Francisco 49ers won the NFC West last season at 13-3 (and advanced to the Super Bowl) but their 3-3 record leaves them in last-place in 2020, behind not only the 5-0 Seahawks but also the 4-2 Rams and Cards. The Pats are more than just the defending AFC East champs, as New England entered 2020 having captured the AFC East title the previous 11 years and in 17 of the last 19 seasons (since 2001). The Pats welcome the 49ers to Gillette Stadium on Sunday with a 2-3 record. New England hasn't been under .500 through the fifth game or later in any season since they were 3-4 in 2002, which was the last season the Patriots did not win 10-plus games.

The 49ers just evened their record at 3-3 last Sunday night, beating the Rams 24-16. The 49ers rode the excellent play of QB Jimmy Garoppolo (69.1% for 3,978 yards with 27 TDs and 13 INTs / 102.0 QB rating), the NFC's best running game (144.1 YPG) and the NFC's stingiest defense (281.0 YPG) all the way to the Super Bowl last season. However, injuries have plagued them all season, on both sides of the ball. Garoppolo was completing 67.3% of his passes (4 TDs / 0 INTs) when he got hurt in Week 2. He returned in Week 5 but with the Miami Dolphins up 30-7 at halftime (Niners would lose 43-17), 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan pulled him during the half (concerned for his health). Garoppolo 'was on the money" against the Rams, throwing three first-half TD passes, finishing 23 of 33 for 268 yards without an INT (124.3 QB rating). RB Raheem Mostert also got back in the lineup and ran 17 times for 65 yards before suffering an ankle injury and leaving the game early in the third quarter. TE George Kittle caught seven passes for 109 yards and one TD, as the 49ers offense that did most of its damage in the first half en route to a 21-6 lead. The San Francisco defense, which was last seen serving up 436 yards and 43 points in a blowout home loss to the Miami Dolphins last week, held the Rams to 311 yards, in large part by limiting QB Jared Goff, who finished with a modest 198 passing yards on just 19 of 38 completions. Jason Verrett stalled a Los Angeles Rams third quarter rally with an end-zone interception and a fourth-and-goal (allowing San Francisco to retain a 21-9) and when LA made it a one-score margin on a 40-yard TD pass from Goff with 3:24 to play, the San Francisco offense ran out the clock (Rams never got the ball back).

The New England didn't allow a TD in Week 6 but Denver's Brandon McManus kicked a franchise-record SIX field goals to lift the visiting Denver Broncos to an 18-12 victory last Sunday. The game originally scheduled for Oct 12 and was pushed back to this past Sunday due to several COVID-19 cases in the Patriots' organization. New England was unable to hold many practices over the previous two weeks, including having Friday's session canceled due to center James Ferentz being placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list. QB Cam Newton saw his first action since Week 3 and ran for 76 yards and a touchdown and went 17-for-25 passing but for only 157 yards with TWO interceptions. He has options at WR in Edelman (20 catches), Harry (18 catches) and Byrd (17) plus RB White has 165 catches in the last two games. Newton lead the Past with 225 rushing and has five rushing TDs but they'll need better passing number out of him. RB Sony Michel has run for 173 (6.7 YPC) in just three games but was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list for the Denver game (status unknown at this time for Sunday). The New England D did its job vs Denver, allowing just 299 yards plus holding Denver to 4 of 14 on third downs. The Pats D was the best in the league last season but one can't and didn't expect this year's unit to hold opponents to 14.1 PPG, again. Scores are up in 2020 and the Pats are allowing 22.1 PPG (not bad) and rank 9th in total D, allowing 275.9 YPG.

The 49ers and Patriots are among the NFL’s most storied franchises with 11 SB titles between them (Pats own six and the Niners five). Garoppolo would NO doubt love to get a victory over the team that drafted him (sat behind Brady from 2014-17) but Newton (a former MVP) has MUCH to prove as well. The clincher for me is, it hasn't been often that one can back Belichick (coming off TWO straight losses) at such a small 'price' and at HOME, no less! The 49ers may be 2-0 on the road in 2020 but those wins have come at MetLife Stadium over the Giants and Jets (a combined 1-11).

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Atl Falcons at 1:00 ET.

The Atlanta Falcons opened 0-5 and that start got head coach Dan Quinn fired. In my opinion, he should have been fired immediately after Atlanta blew a 28-3 lead in Super Bowl LI against the Patriots (New England scored the game's last 31 points to win 34-28 in OT). Raheem Morris spent three seasons as head coach of the Bucs, producing a poor 17-31 record and had just been promoted to DC in Atlanta at the start of 2020. He was named interim head coach after the firing of Quinn and had to be pleased with Atlanta's 40-23 win at Minnesota last Sunday. Detroit's head coach Matt Patricia knows all about 'feeling the heat,' as he went 6-10 in his first season as head coach in Detroit (2018), before going 3-12-1 last season. The Lions ended 2019 on a NINE-game losing skid. Detroit ended its 11-game slide (2-9 ATS) with a 26-23 win at Arizona in Week 3 but lost the following week at home to the Saints. Detroit opened a 14-0 lead but the Saints then scored on their next FIVE possessions to take a 35-14 lead (Saints won 35-29). The Lions did win last Sunday, crushing the sad-sack Jags 34-16 in Jacksonville

Lions offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell has used Adrian Peterson, rookie De'Andre Swift and Kerryon Johnson in the backfield. Peterson has received the bulk of the work (285 yards on 4.1 YPC / 2 TDs) but Swift had a breakthrough performance against the Jaguars, rushing for 116 yards on 14 carries and two TDs. I'm not sure where that effort came from, as Swift had run for just 44 yards the first four games. The Detroit running game averages just 117.4 YPG. QB Matthew Stafford always puts up big numbers (he surpassed 4,000 yards passing seven straight seasons from 2011-17) but he's just 71-82-1 as a starter in the regular season plus is 0-3 in three postseason games. He's thrown for 1,240 yards through five games (on pace for just under 4,000 yards) with nine TDs and four INTs but his receiving corps seems pretty mediocre. TE Hockenson leads with 17 catches and three TDs but the WR trio of Golladay (14), Jones (14) and Amendola (12) don't scare any secondary.

Matt Ryan, like Stafford, always puts up big numbers (he entered 2020 with NINE straight seasons of 4,000-plus passing yards) but except for Atlanta's 2016 Super Bowl run, he has shown only modest success. Atlanta had a solid running game back in 2016 but the addition of Todd Gurley has not worked out as hoped. He has run for 422 yards (4.3 YPC / 5 TDs) but in the big win over Minnesota last Sunday, he was a non-factor with 47 yards on 20 carries. Who was a factor for Atlanta was WR Julio Jones. It's no secret that Jones makes the Falcons a much more dangerous team. Following a strong opening-day performance against Seattle, Jones missed two games and struggled through two others with a hamstring injury. It was part of the reason why the Falcons started 0-5, However, he caught passes against the Vikings for 137 yards and two TDs. With Jones sidelined or ineffective early on, Calvin Ridley leads the team with 35 catches and five TDs. Fellow WR Gage has 25 catches and TE Hurst has 17 catches with three TDs.

Neither the Lions (28.6 PPG) nor the Falcons (30.7 PPG) play much defense, so this game will be decided by which team plays the better offensive game. My bet says that will be Atlanta, as with Jones back, Ryan has WAY more receiving 'weapons' than Stafford and this contest will NOT be decided by either team's running game. The Lions are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings with the Falcons plus getting that "first win of the season," should let the Falcons play with confidence. Atlanta knows it is not making the playoffs this season but being competitive the rest of the way is a reasonable goal. However, losing at home to the Lions would upset the apple cart. The 'apples stay in the cart' for at least one more game.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play (Battle of Unbeatens) is on SMU at 9:00 ET.

Luke Fickel was an assistant at Ohio St from 2002-16 but on December 10, 2016, was named as the 39th head coach of the University of Cincinnati, taking the place of the resigning Tommy Tuberville. Fickell's Bearcats went just 4-8 in his first season but 2018 would be a historic turnaround for the program, as Cincy finished with an 11-2 record and a 35-31 victory in the Military Bowl over Va Tech. Fickell was named AAC Coach of the Year for the 2018 season, which was only the third 11-win season in UC history. He led the team to another 11-win season in 2019. The Bearcats reeled off NINE straight wins after falling to Ohio State in the second game of the year but fell two straight weeks to Memphis, in the final regular season game and in the conference championship game. However, for the second straight year, Cincinnati won its bowl game over an ACC team, crushing Boston College 38-6 in the Birmingham Bowl.

The Bearcats opened the 2020 season ranked 9th in the AP's preseason poll and will travel to Dallas on Saturday night at 3-0 and ranked 9th, when they take on SMU (5-0 and ranked 16th). SMU head coach Sonny Dykes spent three years at La Tech, before getting the head coaching job at Cal, where he flopped (19-30 in four seasons). He got the job at SMU in December of 2017 and in his full season, went 5-7. However, last year's 10-2 regular season got the Mustangs to a bowl game but they were blown out 52-28 by FAU. The team opened 8-0 last season and has now opened 5-0 in 2020 (best B2B starts since the "Pony Express" days of 1983-84). 

The Bearcats didn't start until Sep 16 but won three consecutive Saturdays) over Austin Peay, Army and USF )not exactly a "murderers' row!"). Cincy had a bye week on Oct 10 but then pulled out of last week's road game at Tulsa two days prior to the scheduled Saturday contest due to an outbreak of COVID-19 cases in the program. QB Ridder is coming off two solid seasons, passing for 2,445 yards and 2,164 yards with 38 TDs and 14 INTs. He's completing 60.3% through three games in 2020 for 597 yards but with six TDs and four INTs (not great). RB Doaks is the team's leading rusher with just 145 yards (3.5 YPC) but has added six catches while averaging 21.7 YPC and grabbing two TDs. WRs Young (9 catches) and Jackson (8 catches) are the team's top pass-catchers. Cincy's defense has allowed 17.2 and 20.6 PPG the last two seasons and is allowing just 12.3 PPG through three games in 2020. 

Steve Buechele transferred from Texas and the QB threw for 3,929 yards and 34 scores last year (just 10 INTs). He's off to another excellent start this season, completing 67.2 percent for 1,710 yards with 12 TD and just two INTs. WRs Roberson (22 catches / 21.5 YPC / 3 TDs), Rice (24 catches / 17.1 YPC) and Gray (19 catches / 17.4 YPC / 4 TDs) plus TE Granson (17 catches / 2 TDs) give him plenty of targets. The SMU running game has averaged 204.0 YPG (5.1YPC), led by Bentley (506 yards / 6.8 YPC / 8 TDs).

The SMU defense is allowing 25.4 PPG and shouldn't have too much trouble with a Cincinnati offense that has shown VERY little, so far. Yes, Luke Fickell's team has another excellent defensive team but SMU averages 42.6 PPG and will 'stretch' the Cincy D here at home, where SMU has won EIGHT in a row while averaging 45.0 PPG. The higher ranked team is an underdog in this one for a reason. 

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Big Ten Game of the Year is on Minnesota at 7:30 ET.

The Big Ten returns to the playing field with all 14 teams in action. No. 14 Wisconsin starts things off with a home game against Illinois and SIX games follow on Saturday. The Big Ten is the oldest Division I collegiate athletic conference in the US and currently includes the flagship public university in each of 11 states stretching from New Jersey to Nebraska, as well as two additional public land-grant schools and a private university. It was established in 1895 when Purdue University president James H. Smart and representatives from the University of Chicago, University of Illinois, University of Michigan, University of Minnesota, Northwestern University, and University of Wisconsin gathered at Chicago's Palmer House Hotel to set policies aimed at regulating intercollegiate athletics. Two of that "original seven" (note: University of Chicago left the conference in 1946) meet Saturday in what is surely the most significant contest of the Big Ten's 'Week 1.' when No. 18 Michigan visits No. 21 Minnesota. 

Michigan's Jim Harbaugh was one of the league's most vocal head coaches in getting the Big Ten to return to play. Now, right out of the box, the Wolverines face a VERY tough first game in Minneapolis against the Golden Gophers. Last year's starting QB Shea Patterson had his critics but he did throw for 3,061 yards with 23 TDs and eight INTs. He graduated and Michigan's projected starter, junior Joe Milton, has thrown only 11 passes the last two seasons. Harbaugh wouldn't commit to Milton as his starter, contending redshirt freshman Cade McNamara is still in the running. The running game averaged just 150.7 YPC (on 4.0 YPC) last season, after averaging about 200 YPG the previous three. The team's top-two RBs return in Charbonnet (726 yards / 4.9 YPC / 11 TDs) and Haskins (622 yards / 5.1 YPC / 4 TDs), as do Michigan's top-two WRs, Bell (48 catches / 15.8 YPC / 1 TD) and Collins (37 catches / 19.7 YPC / 7 TDs). Harbaugh always features a strong defense but for the first time since arriving in Ann Arbor in back in 2015, his "D" allowed more than 20.0 PPG (20.7).

While Michigan opens the season with an inexperienced QB, the Gophers have Tanner Morgan, who threw 30 TD passes last season (against only seven INTs) in leading the Golden Gophers to 11 wins (notably, for the first time since 1904), including a 31-24 Outback Bowl victory over Auburn as a seven-point underdog. Leading rusher Smith (1,163 yards / 5.1 YPC / 8 TDs) and record-setting WR Tyler Johnson (86 catches / 1,1318 yards / 13 TDs)) are both gone but RB Mohammad Ibrahim led the team in rushing as a freshman in 2018 with 1,160 yards on 5.7 YPC with nine TDs. He was injured for part of last season but still ran for 604 yards on 5.3 YPC and seven TDs. Minnesota fans will remember that as a freshman, he was the MVP of Minnesota's 34-10 Quick Lane Bowl win by rushing for 224 yards. Rashod Bateman, the team's second-leading receiver a year ago, also returns after catching 60 passes for 1,219 yards (20.3 YPC) and 11 TDs on 60 receptions. DON'T be concerned with Minnesota's offense, which averaged 31.4 PPG (3rd in the Big 10 and 21st nationally). The defense lost its top-three tacklers from a year ago but head coach PJ Fleck has a good feeling about how his defense is progressing Minnesota allowed 22.5 PPG in 2019). "There's going to be a lot of questions that come up every single week," Fleck said. "I'm excited about where our defense is headed. I think I have a good feeling about where we're at, but again you don't know until the lights come on and until these guys are actually playing games."

PJ Fleck 'rowed the boat' at Western Michigan back in 2016, leading the Broncos to a 13-1 season. He used that as a 'launching pad' to get the Minnesota job and in his third season at the school, led the Gophers to an 11-win season (1st since 1904), including that impressive win over Auburn in the Outback Bowl. He now gets this HUGE season-opening game with Harbaugh and Michigan, as the last time Minnesota was involved in a matchup of ranked teams to start a season was 1968. As for Harbaugh, I don't know how anyone can consider him anything but a HUGE disappointment in his return to his alma mater. He's 0-5 against Ohio State, losing 62-39 and 56-27 the last two seasons and is 1-7 SU on the road vs ranked opponents in his tenure at Michigan. I'm "all over" the home dog!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on LSU at 7:00 ET.

LSU had a "season for the ages" in 2019, going 15-0 en route to winning the national championship. QB Joe Burrow was the runaway winner of the Heisman, as all he did was complete 76.3% for 5,671 yards with 60 TD passes and just INTs. He had an All-Star cast of receivers and Edwards-Helaire (1,441 rushing with 16 TDs plus 55 catches) just may have been the best RB in the nation (I believe the Chiefs may agree with that statement). Almost the entire group of starters were gone but LSU was still ranked No. 6 in the AP's preseason poll. Think the Tigers may have been 'seeded' too high. I'll have plenty to say about LSU in a bit.

Will Muschamp came to South Carolina back in 2016 and while he led the Gamecocks to bowl berths in each of his first three seasons, South Carolina lost two of those three bowls and after a 4-8 season in 2019, his record at the school stood at 26-25. South Carolina opened the 2020 season 0-2, before winning 41-7 at Vandy, as if that really counts. However, maybe South Carolina turned its season around with last Saturday's 30-222 home win over then-No. 15 Auburn. The Tigers led 9-0 and 16-7 before the Gamecocks took an 11-point lead and hung on for a 30-22 win. Auburn QB Nix was intercepted THREE times, all leading to TDs. Finally, with Auburn facing a fourth-and-5 from the 12 with nine seconds to go, Bo Nix's scramble came up short as time expired. A win over Auburn was a LONG time coming, as South Carolina registered its first victory against Auburn since 1933! 

LSU opened the season on a 16-game winning streak but was shocked at home by Miss St, as Mike Leach's "Air Raid" offense took apart the LSU defense. CJ Costello, a graduate transfer from Stanford, threw for an SEC single-game record 623 yards and five TDs. That season-opening loss looked bad at the time but looks even worse now, considering that Miss St has lost THREE in a row since that win, scoring a total of just 30 points (10 per game). As for Costello, he's been benched the last two games while throwing one TD pass against EIGHT interceptions. LSU won 41-7 at Vandy (so what) and then lost at Missouri by four points, allowing 45 points (on 586 yards) to a team which came in averaging 15.5 PPG. LSU was supposed to play at Florida last Saturday but the Gators had a COVID-19 outbreak and maybe the extra time was good for the Tigers.

QB Myles Brennan is no Burrow but has thrown for 1,112 yards and 11 TDs with just three INTs. Most of last season's receiving stars are gone but Marshall is back and has 21 catches, averaging 20.7 YPC with seven TDs. The running game is a problem with Edwards-Helaire in the NFL, as it has averaged a woeful 96.7 YPG on 3.2 YPC. Then of course, there is LSU's putrid defensive efforts against any school not named Vandy. QB Brennan is listed as questionable against the Gamecocks because of a lower-body injury sustained against Missouri and head coach Orgeron said the junior could not have played last week if there had been a game. If Brennan is unable to play, one of two freshmen -- Max Johnson and TJ Finley -- or perhaps both would see action in a college game for the first time. "Whoever has the best week is going to start," Orgeron said. "I plan on giving them both a chance during the game. I want to see what they can do. The only way to do it is in live action."

Obviously, I'm hoping Brennan can play but I feel confident the Tigers will be ready to bounce-back either way. Orgeron said the Tigers did "a lot of soul-searching" with the extra time to prepare and that's my expectation as well. South Carolina is off a HUGE win but in reality, Auburn has NOT played like a top-25 team all season (VERY overrated). LSU opened the current season having gone 18-2 in 'Death Valley" the previous three seasons and this is the team's first home game since the Miss St debacle. Brennan or no Brennan, LSU rolls.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* "Big Dog" is on Tennessee at 3:30 ET.

The Alabama–Tennessee football rivalry was always referred to as "The Third Saturday in October." The respective campuses are located approximately 310 miles apart and the game was traditionally played on "the third Saturday in October" each year, prior to the 1992 football season when the SEC split into its Eastern and Western divisions. Once upon a time, before Alabama hired Nick Saban, the Crimson Tide's fabled rivalry game with Tennessee saw the Volunteers dominate their SEC West crossover rival, winning 10 of 12 between 1995 and 2006. However, after Saban took the reins in Tuscaloosa before the 2007 season, it's been all Tide, all the time. Alabama is 13-0 against Tennessee since then, including last year's 35-13 win at home and 11 of those wins have been by double digits. Recent form suggests the second-ranked Tide should make it 14 straight when they visit Neyland Stadium in Knoxville on Saturday for the teams 103rd meeting. However, let's note that the Tide are three-TD favorites and for Alabama backers to win, they'll need a 21-point margin of victory (or more?), to collect the 'CA$H!'

 
The Tide survived a stressful week before their showdown with Georgia last Saturday, as Saban tested positive for COVID-19 on Wednesday. However, THREE negative tests allowed him to coach the team on Saturday night and after trailing 24-20 at the half, Alabama held the Bulldogs scoreless in the second half for an impressive 41-24 win (regulars know that Alabama was my LEGEND Play!). Alabama QB Mac Jones has completed 78.3 percent for 1,518 yards with 12 TDs and two INTs, giving him the nation's top passer efficiency rating of 220.1. RB Harris got off to a slow start but he's run for 358 yards (6.6 YPC) the last two games, while scoring six TDs (he has 499 yards on 6.0 YPC with 11 TDs on the season). WRs Smith (38 catches / 4 TDs) and Waddle (25 catches / 22.3 YPC / 4 TDs) give Jones a dynamic receiving duo. Alabama's defense had struggled through its first 3 1/2 games but maybe it 'found its identity' in the second half vs Georgia. 

Tennessee won its final SIX games of 2019 and opened the 2020 season ranked No. 25 in the AP's preseason poll. The Vols opened 2-0 and visited Georgia on Oct 10 as the nation's 14th-ranked team. The Vols led 21-17 at the half "between the hedges" but would get shut out in the second half of a 44-21 loss. Tennessee welcomed Kentucky to Nashville last Saturday having dominated the series with a 33-2 SU and 26-9 ATS record the previous 35 meetings. Tennessee was 11-2 ATS the last 13 meetings overall and Kentucky had lost 17 straight in Knoxville since winning there in 1984! However, the Vols are coming off their most lopsided defeat at home to Kentucky since 1935, a 34-7 blowout last week in which they made enough mistakes to lose two games. QB Jarrett Guarantano brought out the" boo birds" with consecutive pick-sixes in just over two minutes early in the second quarter, and an interception from reserve quarterback J.T. Shrout set up a Kentucky field goal that made it 17-0." Tennessee has turned the ball over SEVEN times in its last SIX quarters, with Guarantano responsible for SIX of those turnovers.

So why take Tennessee? Alabama is coming off its HUGE win over Georgia and with 13 straight wins over Tennessee can hardly view the Vols as a real threat. Tennessee HAS to be be motivated after its embarrassing loss to Kentucky and it's possible that highly touted true freshman Harrison Bailey will get the start and give the Vols a much-needed spark. No upset expected but like when Alabama failed to cover vs Ole Miss at Oxford on Oct 10 (Rebels were with FOUR points with under four minutes to go), I expect this "Big Dog" to 'bark' loudly.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye-Opener is on Louisville at 12:00 ET.

Mike Norvell was introduced as the 24th head football coach of the Memphis Tigers on Dec 4, 2015, making him the youngest FBS head coach in the nation at the time of his hiring (aged 34). Norvell had overseen one of the nation's most explosive offenses at Arizona State under Todd Graham. The Tigers would go 8-5, 10-3 and 8-6 his first three seasons and then in 2019, he delivered one of the best seasons in the program's history, as the Tigers went 11–1 in the regular season and then won the AAC championship game over Cincy. As the highest ranked Group of 5 team in the final CFP poll, they were awarded a New Years' 6 bowl berth to the Cotton Bowl against Penn State. However, Norvell didn't wait, accepting the head coaching job at Florida State the day after winning the AAC title game. FSU has seen a 'revolving door' of head coaches since Jimbo Fisher left and Norvell took over a team off back-to-back losing seasons Not much had gone right for the Seminoles in 2020, who opened 1-3 with that lone win coming over Jacksonville St. However, the Seminoles upset then-No. 5 North Carolina 31-28 last Saturday.

FSU is on the road this Saturday to take on Louisville. Louisville had to replace Heisman-winner Lamar Jackson after the 2018 season (he won the Heisman in 2017) and the Cardinals went from 8-5 to 2-10. However, Scott Satterfield came to the rescue for the start of the 2019 season. He had led Appalachian St to four straight bowl bids from 2015-18, going 40-11 (.784), overall. Satterfield restored some glory to the program in 2019, as Louisville had a six-game improvement by going 8-5 (best turnaround by a Power-5 school), including a 38-28 bowl win over Miss St. The Cardinals were unranked in the AP's preseason poll but were solid in their season-opening 35-21 win. Louisville allowed three TDs in that contest but the Hilltoppers were held to just 12 FDs and only 248 total yards! Western Ky's first two TDs came on 'drives' of ONE and FOUR yards, following a dropped snap by the punter and a blocked punt. The third score came on a 37-yard run against backups late in the fourth quarter. That win saw Louisville rise to No. 18 in the AP poll but NOTHING has gone right since, as the Cardinals will enter on a FOUR-game slide.

FSU has used three QBs so far but redshirt sophomore Jordan Travis had 204 passing yards and 96 rushing yards against Notre Dame in his first career start. FSU lost 42-26 but the Louisville transfer displayed playmaking skills. Travis then threw for 191 yards (on just eight completions) and one TD plus ran 16 times for a career-high 107 yards and two TDs in the upset of North Carolina, Florida State took a big early lead (up 31-7 at the half) but had to hold on for a 31-28 win. The Tar Heels had a chance for a tying FG late but a wide-open drop on what would have been a first down on a fourth down pass, ended the rally. Travis is completing just 54.0% of his passes but leads the team in rushing (342 yards / 5.8 YPC / 4 TDs). A trio of RBs contribute between 160 and 262 yards for a team averaging 183.4 YPG on the ground. However, the FSU defense is allowing 32.4 PPG.

Louisville's season unraveled quickly after its win over Western Kentucky. The Cardinals lost 47-34 at home to then-No. 17 Miami, before playing three straight road games. Louisville was outplayed at then-No. 21 Pitt but lost just 23-20. An embarrassing 46-27 loss at Ga Tech followed but the team HAS to be encouraged by its 12-7 loss at then-No. 4 Notre Dame last Saturday. QB Cunningham is completing 62.2 percent for 1,118 yards with 10 TDs and five INTs, while adding three rushing TDs. RB Hawkins has 519 rushing yards (ranks 4th nationally) on 5.2 YPC with three TDs. WR Atwell is "a player," with 29 catches and four TDs. The Louisville defense really stepped up at Notre Dame, holding the Irish to 338 yards and 12 points (ND entered averaging 40.3 PPG).

"There's a fine line from winning or losing," Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield said. "You have to do the little things correctly in order to give yourself a chance to win. You can go back to last year; how many were so close that we could've won or lost. This year we've been on the short end of those sticks." I'm sure QB Jordan Travis is motivated to face his old team but that motivation works BOTH ways. FSU is allowing 475 YPG and THREE of their four ACC foes have topped 500 yards. Meanwhile, Louisville is allowing only 379 YPG. The game will be Louisville's first at home since that 47-34 loss to then-No. 17 Miami back on Sep 19 and the "desperate for a win" Cardinals catch Florida St off its upset over North Carolina, snapping a seven-game regular season losing streak against top-10 opponents that had gone back to 2016. Louisville is the play.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the Dal Cowboys at 8:15 ET.

The Dallas Cowboys opened NFL 2020 with a new head coach for the first in a decade, as Mike McCarthy (a Super Bowl winner at Green bay in the season) took over for Jason Garrett. He inherits what most people believe is one of the NFL's most talented rosters but the team owned just ONE playoff victory in the past half-decade. As Dallas gets set to welcome the Arizona Cardinals to "Jerry's House" for a MNF game which wraps up Week 6, one could say truthfully, that the Cowboys sit atop the NFC East. However, a closer look reveals that the Cowboys have attained their "high perch" only because the other three teams in the division are a combined 3-14-1! Dallas is just 2-3 and more notably, 0-5 ATS (only the 'minor league' Jets are worse, going 0-6 SU & ATS!).

The Arizona Cardinals visit Arlington at 3-2 but reside in one the NFL's toughest (meaning best) divisions. Seattle is atop the NFC West at 5-0, the Rams are 4-2 and the defending NFC champion 49ers are 3-3. The Cards are led by former Heisman-winner Kyler Murray, who is completing 69.6% for 1,299 with eight TDs but also six INTs (QB rating of 90.9). Murray also makes plays "with his legs," rushing for 296 yards (on 7.2 YPC) with four TDs. Kenyon Drake is the team's top RB with 314 yards but averages only 3.7 YPC. With Murray's help, Arizona is rushing for 141.0 YPG, an excellent number. Future HOF Larry Fitzgerald has 28 catches but he's no longer a playmaker, averaging just 6.8 YPC. DeAndre Hopkins is now 'the big dog' of the receiving corps, with 45 catches and three TDs. A greatly improved defense may be the biggest storyline in 2020 for Arizona, as the Cards ranked last in the NFL in 2019, allowing 402.0 YPG. However, the Cards have cut that figure to 346.6 YPG and more importantly, are allowing 20.4 PPG, after allowing 27.6 PPG in 2019.

This game is when the Cowboys formally begin life without QB Dak Prescott, whose season is over after he sustained a compound fracture and dislocation of his right ankle during last Sunday's game against the NY Giants. Prescott had passed for an NFL-leading 1,856 yards and was the driving force in making the Cowboys No. 1 in total offense (488.0 YPG), while ranking third in scoring (32.6 PPG) through Week 5. Stepping in will be veteran Andy Dalton (more on him in a bit). Zeke has 364 yards rushing and five TDs but is averaging only 4.1 YPC. WR Amari Cooper has 39 catches but averages just 10.9 YPC and has just one TD reception. However, Dalton also has three more VERY good options. Rookie WR CeeDee Lamb has 29 catches (14.9 YPC / 2 TDs) and fellow WR Gallup has 17 catches (20.5 YPC ab]nd one TD). Then there is TE Schultz, who has 19 receptions (11.8 YPC / 2 TDs). Defense HAS been a big problem and why the Cowboys are 0-5 ATS. No "Doomsday Defense" these days, as the team is allowing 404.4 YPG (29th through Week 5), while allowing 36.0 PPG (32nd of 32 teams!).

Murray has proven he can play at this level but the Arizona running game doesn't give him much cover. Take away Murray's 296 rushing yards on 7.2 YPC and Arizona RBs have contributed just 409 yards (that's 81.8 YPG) on 3.8 YPC. Making 'life' more difficult for the Cards here, is that they are playing on the road for the THIRD consecutive week. Getting back to Dalton, I expect him to "fit right in" with this talented offense. He was  9 of 12 for 111 yards in relief last week and I believe will THRIVE. He got a "bad rap" in Cincy. He took the Bengals to the playoffs in each of his first four seasons and had the team at 10-3 when his 2015 season ended due to an injury. Yes, Cincy lost in the wild card round in each of those five consecutive postseason appearances (Dalton was 0-4 with just one TD pass and six INTs) but c'mon. When he arrived in Cincy as a rookie in 2011, the franchise had missed the playoffs in 18 of the previous 20 seasons, winning for games or less in EIGHT of those seasons, including going 4-12 the year before he got there. Dalton turned things around to 9-7 as a rookie and then led the Bengals to 10-plus wins the next FOUR seasons. Is Dalton as talented as Prescott, no. However, don't be surprised if the Cowboys win seven or eight of their final 11 games with him starting. For tonight, Dallas wins impressively.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the SF 49ers at 8:20 ET.

The LA Rams went 13-3 and represented the NFC at the Super Bowl in the 2018 season (lost to the Pats) but it was the SF 49ers who went 13-3 last season and made the Super Bowl, only to lose to the Chiefs. The Rams used a two-game sweep over its California rival to capture the NFC West in 2018 and the 49ers "returned the favor" with a two-game sweep of the season series in 2019. The teams meet on SNF in Week 6 at Levi's Stadium with the Rams off to a 4-1 start, while the 49ers check in at just 2-3. Seattle sits atop the NFC West at 5-0 and even the Arizona Cards have 'thrown their hat in the ring,' by opening 3-2.

LA's Jared Goff has started strong, completing 71.7% for 1,372 yards with eight TDs and three INTs (QB rating of 108.8). He has two talented WRs in Kupp (28 catches / 2 TDs) and Woods (23 catches / 2 TDs) plus TE Higbee has 15 catches and a team high three TD grabs. LA sure doesn't miss RB Gurley, as the team's two-headed RB tandem of Henderson (260 yards) and Brown (213 yards) has the Rams averaging 139.6 YPG on the ground (7th), well above the 93.7 YPG (26th) the team averaged last season. The LA defense is also improved , allowing 18.0 PPG, down from 22.8 PPG last season.

The 49ers rode the excellent play of QB Jimmy Garoppolo (69.1% for 3,978 yards with 27 TDs and 13 INTs / 102.0 QB rating), the NFC's best running game (144.1 YPG) and the NFC's stingiest defense (281.0 YPG) all the way to the Super Bowl. However, injuries have plagued them all season, on both sides of the ball. Garoppolo was completing 67.3% of his passes (4 TDs / 0 INTs) when he got hurt in Week 2. He returned last week but with the Miami Dolphins up 30-7 at halftime (Niners would lose 43-17), 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan pulled him during the half (concerned for his health). RB Raheem Mostert also returned and while the 49ers were embarrassed at home by Miami, Mostert ran for 90 yards on 11 carries (he has 238 yards on 7.0 YPC on the season). TE Kittle has been back the last two games and while he had just four catches in the rout, he had 15 catches the previous week vs Philly. WR Bourne has 15 catches in playing all five games (15.1 YPC) but the 49ers need WR Samuel to return to his rookie form. Is this the week? The defense has had a drop-off (no Bosa is HUGE) but even after last week's debacle, check in allowing 22.8 PPG on 323.0 YPG (not terrible numbers, by any stretch).

Here's the bottom line. With Seattle at 5-0 (is on a bye week) and the Rams at 4-1, the last-place 49ers would fall to 2-4 with a loss in this one, with the Rams moving to 5-1. After going 7-1 SU at home last season, the 49ers  are 0-3 at home so far in 2020 and this marks their THIRD straight home game. Talk about a "must win," if San Francisco has ANY designs on making the playoffs this season. Home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the TB Bucs at 4:25 ET.

It's a 'Battle of the Bays' on Sunday from Raymond James Stadium, as well as a showdown between two of this era's greatest QBs, Rodgers and Brady. The Green Bay Packers are 4-0 (also 4-0 ATS) and come off a bye week to meet the 3-2 Tampa Bay Bucs, who struggled to finish off their drives in a 20-19 Thursday Week 5 loss at Chicago. Those surprising Bears are 4-1 and right behind the Packers in the NFC North, while Tampa Bay is in a three-way tie for first in the NFC South with New Orleans and Carolina.

The Packers got good news this week, as their No. 1 WR Davante Adams will return for Sunday's game. Adams has sat out Green Bay's last two games with a hamstring injury, but had caught 17 passes for 192 yards with two TDs before sustaining his injury in a 42-21 rout of Detroit back on Sep 21. Adams has averaged 86 catches per season the last four years, while catching 40 TD passes. Getting Adams back is truly great news but with or without Adams, the Packers have had some start to the season. They are averaging a league-high 38.0 PPG, while ranking second in total offense (454.3 YPG), fourth in rushing (150.8 YPG) and fifth in passing (303.5 YPG). It's hard to argue against Brady being the G.O.A.T. but Rodgers is a special QB and in 2020 he's completed 70.5% for 1,214 yards with 13 TDs and not a single INT in 139 attempts. His QB rating of 128.4 is topped by only Russell Wilson's 129.8 RB Aaron Jones is having a terrific season, rushing for 374 yards (5.8 YPC) with four TDs, while catching 15 passes for two more TDs. Green Bay's defense has been pretty mediocre in allowing 25.3 PPG but when one's offense is averaging 38.0 PPG, it's good enough for the team to have an average margin of victory of 12.7 points (now wonder the Packers are 4-0 ATS).

The Bucs signed Brady to a two-year, $50 million contract in fully guaranteed money, despite the fact that he turned 43 in August. I guess that's the going rate for a six-time Super Bowl-winning QB. The biggest post-game talk in Tampa Bay's loss in Chicago was that Brady appeared to forget the downs on his team's last unsuccessful series, Not sure if that was the case or not but things went awry for him and the offense well before then. The Bucs committed 11 penalties and its OL not only allowed Brady to be sacked three times but he was pressured on a "way too high" percentage of his 41 passes. The Buccaneers scored 10 points in the first quarter, and couldn't match that for the game's remainder. I mentioned the team's inability to finish off drives at the top and that's reinforced by Tampa Bay settling for four FGs, three from inside of 40 yards. Brady's completed 64.3 % of his passes for 1,375 yards with 12 TDs and four INTs and has looked better than he did in his last couple of regular seasons with the Pats. RB Ronald Jones may not be quite as good as Green Bay's Aaron, but he has 359 rushing yards (4.9 YPC) and 15 catches, as well. WR Mike Evans has become Brady's favorite target, catching 22 passes with five TDs. Fellow WR Miller has 15 catches and averages a team-best 16.7 YPC. TE Howard (11 catches with two TDs) is sidelined but Gronk has 10 of his 12 catches this season in the last three games. Tampa's defense is allowing just 2898.2 YPG (second-best in the NFL), which is just over 80 yards less than last season's 'stop unit.' The Bucs allowed 27.8 PPG last season but that's down to a more respectable 22.4 PPG allowed in this VERY high-scoring season.

One CAN'T ignore that Green Bay's 4-0 SU and ATS mark has come against four opponents whose combined record is 5-15. Is it also noteworthy that Green Bay has failed to cover FOUR of its last five games when  returning from bye? I'm not so sure about that but I am sure that this is a HUGE game for the Bucs, which happens to be the team's LONE home game in a four-game span. It's possible that this could be the last regular-season meeting between Rodgers and Brady (they've met just TWICE before, with each winning once) and I'm backing the G.O.A.T.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Rivalry Game of the Year is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET.

AFC North contests between the Browns and Steelers have always been heated given the teams' proximity and history but this first of two meetings here in 2020 draws extra meaning because the Browns have opened 4-1 for the first time since 1994 and the 4-0 Steelers are one of just FOUR unbeaten NFL teams. The QB matchup has more than a little intrigue as well, with some believing that Baker Mayfield (at 25) is blossoming into the franchise QB the Browns have been seeking for years. On the Pittsburgh side, the 38-year-old Ben Roethlisberger has bounced back from elbow surgery a year ago to post a QB rating of 110.4 through four games, which would be teh highest for a career that began back in 2004 (note: Baker was NINE years old in 2004!). It's also  a game between the NFL top rushing offense (Cleveland is averaging an NFL-best 188.4 YPG)  going up against the NFL stingiest rush defense (Pittsburgh is allowing 64.0 YPG on the ground.

The Cleveland defense is clearly the team's Achilles' heel, allowing 29.8 PPG, which is a TD and two-point conversion higher than what Pittsburgh allows (21.8 PPG). However, since losing in Week 1 by the score of 38-6 to the Ravens, the Cleveland offense has been terrific, averaging 37.5 PPG. The Browns have scored at least 30 points in each of their four straight wins, the first time they have reached that total in four straight games since 1968 (can you say Leroy Kelly and Bill Nelson?). Baker Mayfield had a promising rookie season in 2018 (27/14 TD-to INT ratio and 93.7 QB rating) and Cleveland's 2019 season looked promising. However, Mayfield was awful through the season's first eight games, throwing just seven TD passes with 12 INTs as the Browns went 2-6. They did win FOUR of their next five games (Mayfield had an 8-4 ratio) but the Browns lost their final three games to finish 6-10 (it didn't help that the Cleveland D allowed 34.0 PPG in those final three games). As for Mayfield, he ended his 'sophomore' season with 22 TDs, 21 INTs and a 77.8 QB rating (far off his 'freshman' numbers!). However, since that Week 1 loss, Mayfield has turned into more of a "game-manager." He's completing 61.2% for 976 yards with nine TDs and four INTs. Those certainly aren't eye-popping numbers but they represent the efficiency and dependability that had been missing from Cleveland's QB position for what seemed like an eternity. Whether it's Hunt (347 yards on 5.0 YPC with 3 TDs / 11 catches with three TDs) or Chubb (335 yards on 5.9 YPC with 4 TDs). WRs OBJ (21 catches with three TDs) and Landry (21 catches but zero TDs) are quality targets but late Thursday afternoon it was announced that OBJ was sent home with an unexplained illness.

Big Ben is completing 69.9% for 1,016 yards with 10 TDs and just one INT (see above for his QB rating). RB Snell filled in for a less-than-100 percent James Connor in Week 1 with 113 yards but Connor then topped 100 yards rushing in consecutive games (Weeks 2 and 3) for the first time since the first half of 2018 (224 yards on 5.6 YPC with two TDs). However, he did have just 44 rushing yards with one TD in last week's win. WRs JuJu Smith-Shuster (21 catches / 3 TDs) and Diontae Johnson (15 catches / 1 TD) are part of a young and diverse pass-catching group that saw rookie which also features rookie Chase Claypool, who had  a breakout game vs the Eagles last Sunday. The Notre Dame product caught SEVEN passes for 110 yards with three TDs plus added a rushing tD. He now has 13 catches on the season, averaging 20.1 YPC with four receiving TDs. I noted Pittsburgh's rush D at the top but will add here that the Steelers rank third in the league in total defense, allowing 301.5 PPG.

I don't know the status of OBJ but Cleveland is also dealing with the following. Mayfield came out of last weekend's 32-23 win over Indianapolis with tender ribs and was limited in practice Wednesday, saying he was "sore ... but that is why we have the rest of the week until game day." In addition to Mayfield, safeties Ronnie Harrison (concussion) and Karl Joseph (hamstring) and receiver Jarvis Landry (hips/ribs) were out Wednesday, although head coach Kevin Stefanski said he expects Landry to return to practice this week. RB Kareem Hunt (thigh), who has been carrying the load with Nick Chubb hurt, was limited Wednesday.

This matchup surely qualifies as a rivalry but it sure is a ONE-SIDED one. Here's the rub. The Steelers have dominated this series dating back to 2004 (Big Ben's rookie year) with a 27-4-1 SU record (not much of an impost in this one!). Pittsburgh was a perfect 3-0 ATS in 2019 in home games inside the NFC North, while the Browns are a 'money-burning' 11-20 ATS in their last 31 games against their NFC foes. That includes a blowout loss at Baltimore in Week 1 and a win but non-cover at home vs the Bengals in Week 2. Lay the MORE than reasonable price!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on Alabama at 8:00 ET.

IMPORTANT UPDATE: I posted this play BEFORE the news that Nick Saban tested positive for COVID-19. The line has dropped since the news and quite honestly, I like the play even more. Saban has prepared his team for a game like this and I expect there be to be a "Win one for the Gipper" mentality running through the veins of all Alabama players. As they say in golf, "Play Away!"

Four of the nation's 10 college football conferences decided not to play fall football this season back in August, including the Big Ten and the Pac 12. While those conferences have reversed their decisions, none of those teams have yet to begin play (that changes very soon). The Big Ten and Pac 12 featured schools in the AP preseason top-25, so the fall out from that has been WAY fewer early season matchups between top25 opponents. In fact, there have been just 10 games played so far in 2020 in which top-25 opponents have squared off. The paucity of top-25 matchups continues this Saturday, with just ONE game featuring top-25 opponents. However, it's fair to say it's a "Big One," as No. 3 Georgia visits No. 2 Alabama Saturday night (8:00 ET on CBS) in Tuscaloosa.

These two national powers haven't met in the regular season since 12105 and believe it or not, the last time the Bulldogs played in Tuscaloosa was 2007. That happened to be Nick Saban's first season with Alabama and Georgia won 26-23 in OT. Saban's first season didn't go very well, as Alabama ended the regular season with a 6–6 record, including a four-game losing streak, featuring a particularly humiliating loss at home to ULM-Monroe and a SIXTH straight loss to Auburn in the Iron Bowl. The Crimson Tide did defeat Colorado in the 2007 Independence Bowl 30–24, to end the year 7–6. Just in case you may be unaware, Saban's done pretty well since then. I don't have time to chronicle his entire record but will note that Saban's won FIVE national s]championships at Alabama since his first, back in 2009 (his third season at Tuscaloosa). Georgia knows all about competing for a national title in that same time frame but the Bulldogs have yet to capture a single title since winning the 1980 national championship led by a freshman Herschel Walker. Ohio State and Georgia were crowned national champions back in 1942 and Georgia claims it as so in its record books. In fairness, Georgia defeated UCLA in the Rose Bowl on January 1, 1943, as NINE ranking authorities listed in the NCAA record books placed the Bulldogs as No. 1. However, don't try to 'sell' that to Ohio St, which Ohio State was named No. 1 in the final AP Poll at the end of November and did not make a bowl appearance. Now to Saturday's game.

The Bulldogs expected Wake Forest graduate transfer Janmie Newman to lead its offense in 2020 but he "opted out" before the start of the season due to COVID-19 concerns. Stepping in is junior Stetson Bennett, who had just 27 pass attempts in 2019 for the Bulldogs. He's completed 63.1% for 689 yards through three games, throwing five TDs, while NOT throwing an interception in 84 attempts. His "go-to" receiver is Jackson, who has 19 catches (15.8 YPC( and one TD. A trio of other WRs have combined for 19 catches as well, averaging only 10.2 YPC. The running game is averaging 172.0 YPG but only 3.8 YPC. White is the team's top RB and he's scored four TDs but has a modest 209 yards and averages just 3.9 YPC. Georgia owns an excellent defense, which helped them open 2-0 with a 37-10 win at Arkansas and a 27-6 home win over then-No. 7 Auburn. Georgia found itself down 21-17 to Tennessee at the half last Saturday but scored 27 points in the second half, while its defense allowed only 71 yards and four FDs after halftime. The Bulldogs held the Volunteers, who came in ranked 14th  to minus-1 yard on 27 rushes.

The Georgia defense ranks first nationally in rushing defense (38.3 YPG), second in total defense (236.7 YPG) and is tied for fifth in scoring defense (12.3 PPG) but will surely be tested by Alabama's offense Saturday night, as the Crimson Tide lead the nation with an average of 51.0 PPG (note: Alabama put up 723 yards last Saturday vs Ole Miss!). QB Mac Jones has seamlessly replaced Tua, completing 79.5% for 1,101 yards (that's 367 per) with eight TD passes and just one INT. He is the national leader in passing efficiency with a QB rating of 220.3. I took the "big points" (24.5 to be exact) last Saturday with Ole Miss against Alabama and easily cashed. Alabama led just 49-45 with under 3 1/2 minutes, before winning 63-48. I wrote in that game analysis that Alabama's running offense had struggled through its first two games, averaging only 110.0 YPG on 3.4 YPC. However, that all changed last Saturday, as Najee Harris rushed for 206 yards and a school-record five TDs. (he now has 10 TDs after just three games / he ran for 1,224 yards on 5.9 YPF with 13 TDs last season). WR Jeudy is now in the NFL but wideouts DeVonta Smith ( 68 catches / 14 TDs in 2019) and Jaylen Waddle are back. Smith leads with 27 catches and Waddle has 19, averaging 20.8 YPC. Then there is Mitchie, who has a more modest 11 catches but averages 27.1 YPC!

There is no denying that Alabama's defense is not up to past standards (it's not even close!).The Alabama D had been 'soft' the first two games, allowing 386.0 YPG, compared to 294 YPG the previous seven seasons. It then got BLASTED last Saturday, as the Tide gave up a school record 643 yards to fast-paced Ole Miss. However, Georgia's offense is pedestrian compared to that of Ole Miss. In fact, Bennett was  the Bulldogs' fourth choice at QB in the offseason. However, first Newman opted out of the season, USC transfer J.T. Daniels wasn't medically cleared for the opener and D'Wan Mathis lasted only 17 passes as the starter before Bennett got his shot. The record is clear, Saban is 21-0 against his former assistants, after besting Lane Kiffin last Saturday. 'Bama was laying more than three TDs against Ole Miss, so a 15 point win was NOT enough to "get the ca$h! Alabama has won the last FIVE meetings with Georgia, with current Georgia head coach Kirby Smith, who was an Alabama assistant under Saban from 2007 to 2015, going 0-2. In the first 'Titanic' matchup of the 2020 college football season, Saban moves to 22-0 against his former assistants, while Smart falls to 0-3 against his former boss and the margin will be "significantly" higher than the posted pointspread. Roll Tide!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on Miss St at 4:00 ET.

Texas A&M  opened its season with a highly-disappointing 17-12 home win over Vandy, a team which has since lost two more games, allowing 41 points in each. Next up was a trip to Alabama, where the Aggies fell 52-24 (Alabama QB Mac Jones passed for a career-high 435 yards and four TDs). A&M badly needed a win last Saturday at home vs No. 3 Florida (I had the Aggies!) and got it, upsetting the Gators 41-38. A&M's running game proved to be the difference as the Aggies totaled 205 rushing yards on the ground, led by Isaiah Spiller's 174 yards and two TDs on 27 carries. Senior QB Kellen Mond completed 25 of 35 passes for 338 yards and three TDs, as Texas A&M totaled 543 yards on offense.

The Aggies are on the road this Saturday to Starkville, Ms for a game with Mississippi St. Mike Leach had some coaching debut with the Bulldogs back on Sep 26, opening with a 44-34 win at defending champion LSU. He brought his "Air Raid" offense to the SEC and QB Costello, a graduate transfer from Stanford, shredded the LSU pass D for an SEC record 623 yards passing. However, does the phrase "how the mighty have fallen" ring a bell? Since that season-opening win, Costello and the Bulldogs have lost at home to Arkansas (Razorbacks snapped a 20-game SEC losing streak with the win) and then lost 24-2 at Kentucky, a game in which Costello was benched.

Mond is a quality QB, who enters completing 62.5% for 845 yards with seven TDs and just one INT. Spiller is a solid RB and has chipped in 316 yards, while averaging 6.9 YPC. TE Wyderman leads the team with 15 catches, while WR Chapman leads with three TD  receptions among his 14 catches. However, the A&M defense has NOT looked very good (the Vandy game doesn't count!), allowing a combined 90 points on 946 yards against Alabama and Florida.

Miss St has a non-existent running game, averaging only 38.1 YPG on 2.1 YPC. However, Leach has been winning games for decades with his "Air Raid" offense. Costello has just one TD and seven ITNs the last two games but this guy was a solid QB at Stanford. The LSU game will NEVER be repeated but I expect him to bounce back here. The Miss St defense has played the last two weeks, allowing just 275 yards to Arkansas and then ONLY 157 to Kentucky.

A&M's win last week over No. 3 Florida was its first win over an AP top 5-ranked team in the three-year tenure of coach Jimbo Fisher. Texas A&M had previously gone 3-8 against AP ranked teams under Fisher. I 'smell' a let down and note that Miss St has beaten A&M handily in each of the Aggies last three visits to Davis Wade Stadium, 48-31 (-2.5), 35-28 (+ 10.5) and 28-13 (-1.5). Typical of Leach's teams in his eight seasons at Washington State was for them to play its best against the toughest competition but come up wanting against apparently lesser opponents. Upset alert!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on NC State at 3:30 ET.

Football in the ACC is unlike basketball. Duke and North Carolina State are just 20 miles apart and play in the same conference but the schools have stopped meeting annually once the ACC expanded and went to a divisional format 15 years ago. They have played only THREE times since then (this will be the fourth meeting), with their last meeting coming back in 2013. David Cutcliffe arrived at Duke for the 2008 season (from Ole Miss) but the team had a losing record his first five seasons, although Duke did go 6-6 in 2012 but lost its bowl game to end 6-7. However, the Blue Devils would put together FIVE winnings season the next six years, going to a bowl game in all five winning seasons. Duke was just 5-7 last season but with three home games to open the 2020 season (MTSU, Elon and Charlotte). The Blue Devils were counting a 3-0 start to propel them to a winning season. So much for that, as COVID-19 has scrambled so many schools' schedules.

Dave Doeren is in his 8th season at NC State and after a 3-9 'rookie' year,' led the Wolfpack to FIVE straight winning seasons and bowl berths (3-2). NC St opened 4-2 in 2019 but lost its final SIX games (also 0-6 ATS), finishing 4-8. TEN starters returned on offense, so it was expected that  NC St's PPG (just 22.1 last season) would significantly improve  in 2020. After all, the Wolfpack averaged 30-plus PGG in FOUR of the five seasons during their bowl streak (2014-18). NC St knows all about how COVID-19 has impacted a team's schedule. The Wolfpack's original September schedule had them playing at Louisville and Troy, with home games against Miss St and Delaware. NONE of the schools are on NC St's 2020 schedule.

Duke opened the 2020 season losing FOUR in a row, as its defense allowed 32.3 PPG. However, the Blue Devils finally broke into the win column by winning on the road at Syracuse 38-24 last Saturday. Duke showed some offense in the Syracuse game, as the Blue Devils had 645 total yards (third-highest total in program history) and made 36 FDs. The team ran for 363 yards, as Jackson (169 yards / 5.6 YPC) and Mataeo Durant (163 yards / 7.1 YPC and two TDs) became the first pair of Blue Devils ever to rush for more than 150 yards in the same game. However, Duke's junior QB Chase Brice has been inconsistent in 2020, completing only 53.9% of his passes with five TDs and eight INTs. As noted above, Duke's D is not much of a 'stop unit' and let's not put too much stock in the Blue Devils' win over Syracuse, which is just 1-3 with all three losses coming by double digits.

NC State QB Devin Leary was still recovering from COVID-19 at the opening of the season and did not play in the Wolfpack's season-opening 45-42 win over Wake. NC St lost its second game of the season 45-24 at Va Tech, with Leary seeing his first action by going 12 of 16 for 165 yards with one TD and no INTs in relief. He started the following game at then-No. 24 Pittsburgh, leading the Wolfpack to a 30-29 upset win. He threw for 336 yards with four TD passes. He did not have a good game last Saturday in NC St's 38-21 win over UVa (as a TD underdog!), completing just 11 of 25 for 184 yards with two TDs and one INT. The 'star of the game' was NC St's defense, which forced four turnovers, had SIX sacks and held Virginia to just four conversions on 18 third down attempts. The Wolfpack converted those four Cavalier turnovers into 17 points and out rushed UVa by nearly 100 yards. 

This is NC State's first home game in just about a month (hosted Wake back on Sep 19). Leary enters this game with seven TDs and just one INT and the defense has 18 sacks on the season (after getting SIX last Saturday), while the team's veteran OL has not given up a sack in either of the last two games. Great spot for NC St to win and win "by a margin!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Ole Miss at 3:30 ET.

It's a pair of 1-2 SEC teams meeting in Fayetteville on Saturday, as Ole Miss visits Arkansas. B0th schools have new head coaches this season, Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss and Sam Pittman at Arkansas. Legendary Raiders' owner Al Davis hired Lane Kiffin back on January 23, 2007, making the 31-year-old the youngest head coach in the NFL's "modern era" (since 1946). The "Boy Genius" would go 4-12 in his first season and then after opening 1-3 in his second season, was fired. He's since made a one-year controversial 'stop at Tennessee, spent three-plus seasons at USC after Pete Carroll bolted to the NFL to escape NCAA sanctions and then was OC for Nick Saban at Alabama. He then landed at FAU in 2017 where he went 11-3, 5-7 and 10-3, leaving for Ole Miss last season before FAU was headed back to the Boca Raton Bowl, which the Owls had won back in 2017. 

Pittman joined new University of Arkansas head coach Bret Bielema's staff as assistant head coach/offensive line coach and stayed from 2013 through 2015 seasons. Pittman departed Arkansas after the 2015 season to become offensive line coach at the University of Georgia under new head coach Kirby Smart. He garnered a reputation as "one of the best recruiters and offensive line coaches in the SEC and helped Georgia win three consecutive SEC East titles from 2017–2019. He was promoted to associate head coach in 2019  but on December 8, 2019, Pittman was announced as the new head coach at Arkansas.

The Ole Miss offense has thrived under Kiffin, averaging 41.7 PPG after three games. QB Matt Corral is completing 76.1 percent for 1,080 yards (he's topped 300 yards in all three games) with nine TDs and just one INT. His QB Rating of 210.7 ranks second in the nation in passing efficiency. WR Moore already has 31 catches but TE Yeboah is averaging 23.7 YPC and FOUR of his 15 receptions have gone for TDs. The running game offers a nice balance to Corral's passing, averaging 192.3 YPG, with Ealy (243 yards / 5.4 YPC / 4 TDs) and Connor (179 yards / 4.8 YPC / 4 TDs) both contributing. As for the defense, I'll say "no comment" and let these numbers speak for themselves. The defense that has given up 155 points and 641.3 YPG in three outings.

Florida transfer Feleipe Franks has done a nice job for the Razorbacks, completing 64.9% for 730 yards with seven TDs and just two INTs. However, the Arkansas running game is non-existent, averaging 86.3 YPG on just 2.4 YPC and the team has yet to score a rushing TD through THREE games! RB Smith is the team's leading rusher (167 yards / 4.1 YPC) and also leads the team with 14 catches. However, WR Warren has 10 catches, averaging 22.3 YPC and has caught three TDs.

Arkansas is 6-1 SU & ATS in the last seven meetings between these two schools but I really like what I've seen from Ole Miss. The Rebels couldn't keep up with the Gators in their first game (lost 51-35 but gained 613 yards!), then came from two TDs down in the third quarter at Kentucky to win 42-241 in OT the following Saturday. Ole Miss gave Alabama all it wanted last Saturday, trailing just 49-45 with under four minutes to go, before losing 63-48. The Razorbacks FINALLY broke its 20-game SEC losing streak with a 21-14 win at Miss St on Oct 3 and  gave Auburn all it wanted in last Saturday's 30-28 road loss. A controversial ruling allowed the Tigers to get off a late field goal for their 30-28 victory over the Hogs and immediately became one of the hot topics of last weekend, with the consensus seeming to be that officials denied the Hogs what would have been their second victory. Pittman said he talked to John McDaid, SEC coordinator of football officials, and is "at peace" with the issue. "I don't really know what to say," he said at his weekly press conference. "I don't want to go into it, but I heard from the head of officials and I understand what happened now. So now we'll move forward on it."

Pittman may be "at peace" with last Saturday's result but his team got robbed!' Bottom line is that Arkansas enter this game 1-21 SU in its last 22 SEC games and I want no part of them here (in basically a pick'em game) against an Ole Miss offense that leads the SEC in total offense (573 YPG), FDs (86), and passing yards per completion (16.31). Even more impressively, the offense has lost only ONE turnover on an interception, a conference low. The Rebels just put up 647 yards on the 'Bama defense and their 48 points were the most the Tide have given up vs an unranked team since 1936! As they like to say in Oxford, "Hotty Toddy!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye-Opener is on Tennessee at 12:00 ET.

Kentucky hired Mark Stoops back on November 27, 2012, He was just 2-10 in his first season and then followed with back-to-back 5-5 seasons. However, he's led the Wildcats to FOUR straight winning season from 2016-19 and to four consecutive bowls, as well. Jeremy Pruitt was the DC at Florida St (2013) at Georgia (2014-15) and at Alabama (2016-17), before being hired as Tennessee's head coach in December of 2017. It capped a tumultuous coaching search that followed the firing of head coach Butch Jones and led to the replacement of AD John Currie by Hall of Fame coach Phillip Fulmer. Pruitt finished his first season with a 5–7 record, including 2–6 in SEC play. However, the Vols won their final five regular season games and then capped the year with a 23–22 comeback victory in the Gator Bowl against Indiana. Tennessee opened the 2020 ranked 25th in the AP's preseason poll and with a SIX-game winning streak. Old rivals Kentucky and Tennessee square off Saturday in Nashville at 12 noon ET. 

The Wildcats lost their season-opener at Auburn in a game MUCH closer than the 29-13 final. Kentucky seemingly scored a TD right before the half (was trailing 8-7 at the time) but a review said no (sure looked like a TD to me). Auburn then picked off a pass at the goal line on the VERY next play and while Auburn's "pick-six" was waived off because of another questionable call, the Wildcats never really recovered, Kentucky was within 15-13 in the fourth quarter but a fumble and then a failed 4th-down conversion attempt on back-to-back possessions, led to Auburn TD drives of 23 and 27 yards. Kentucky held Auburn to just 15 FDs and 324 yards. Kentucky then lost at home the following Saturday to Ole Miss, failing to hold a 14-point lead in the third quarter, eventually losing 42-41 in OT, on a missed extra-point. However, Kentucky defenders intercepted SIX passes and the Wildcats, despite picking up only 10 FDs, defeated visiting Mississippi State 24-2 for their first victory of the season last Saturday night in Lexington. Kentucky QB Terry Wilson is more of a runner (leading rusher  with 221 yards on 4.6 YPC and three TDs) than a passer (61.3% for 463 yards with two TDs and one INT. The deep owns depth in the backfield and is averaging 212.3 YPG rushing (more on that in a bit). WR Josh Ali is the lone pass-catcher of note with 18 receptions but he's averaging just 11.6 YPC and does not have a receiving TD.

Tennessee won a hard-fought game at South Carolina to open the season (31-27) and then beat Missouri 35-12, gaining 422 yards. That win extended the Vols' winning streak to EIGHT in row, tied with Notre Dame for the longest active among Power-5 schools. The Vols were in Athens, Ga last Saturday and led the then-No. 4 Bulldogs 21-17 at the half, before getting 'rolled' in the second half, as Georgia scored the game's final 27 points for a 44-21 win. Tennessee QB Jarrett Guarantano has completed 62.2% of his passes for 664 yards with four TDs and just one INT. His lone receiver of note is Josh Palmer, who has 14 catches (16.2 YPC) and has caught THREE of Guarantano's four TD throws, A pair of RBs share time, as Chandler has 187 yards (4.7 YPC) and Gray (170 yards (4.7 YPC).

As the teams meet Saturday, here's the rub. Tennessee has dominated this series with a 33-2 SU and 26-9 ATS record the last 35 meetings. Tennessee is 11-2 ATS the last 13 meetings overall and Kentucky has lost 17 straight in Knoxville since winning there in 1984! What changes here? Let me return to Kentucky's running game averaging over 200 yards. The Wildcats ran for 408 yards (7.3 YPC) vs Ole Miss but in their other two games, vs Auburn and Miss St, they've run for an average of just 114.5 YPG on 3.2 YPC. Remember, Kentucky had just 10 FDs vs Miss St last Saturday, while gaining 157 total yards. NO way the Wildcats break their 17-game losing streak in Knoxville this Saturday and the bet says the Vols win "with room to spare!" Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* SBC Game of the Year is on UL Lafayette at 7:30 ET.

Coastal Carolina's Jamey Chadwell was named interim head coach when head coach Joe Moglia took a medical leave of absence in 2017. The school announced on January 5, 2018 that Moglia had been medically cleared to return to full-time coaching and would reassume the head coaching position. However, Chadwell was formally introduced as the third all-time head coach at Coastal Carolina on January 18, 2019. Caldwell led the Chanticleers' to a 5-7 season in 2019, with their most notable win coming 12-7 at Kansas. The Chanticleers opened the 2020 season by returning to Lawrence and easily defeating the Jayhawks 38-23 back on Sep 12. They have followed with two more wins and will visit Cajun Field at 3-0 to take on ULL, which is also 3-0 and ranked No. 21 in the latest AP poll.

Billy Napier accepted the head coaching job of the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns back on Dec 15, 2017, giving him his first job as a head coach of a college football team. His first season resulted with the Rajin' Cajuns winning the SBC-West and making a Cure Bowl appearance (lost to Tulane to finish 7-7). ULL won the West again last season, gave Appalachian St all it wanted in the SBC championship game (lost 45-38) and then capped its season with a 27-17 bowl win over Miami-Ohio to finish 11-3. ULL opened the 2020 season by winning 31-14 at Iowa St as a two-TD underdog. That victory is arguably the biggest win in school history, as ULL beat a top-25 opponent on the road for the first time, having gone 0-26 against ranked foes away from home. ULL's only other win over a top-25 team was in 1996 at home against Texas A&M. ULL has since added two wins over Ga State (34-31) and Georgia Southern (20-18) but both games came right down to the wire.

Red-shirt freshman Grayson McCall won the starting QB job for the Chanticleers and has been excellent. He's completing 66.7% for 728 yards with nine TDs and just one INT, while rushing for 139 yards (4.5 YPC) plus three more TDs. C.J. Marable ran for 1,095 yards (5.3 YPC) but has a modest 190 yards this season (4.0 YPC) with three TDs. However, the running game has been good, averaging 198.3 YPG on 4.6 YPC. WR Heiligh has 12 catches (18.3 YPC) with three TDs, TE Likely has seven catches (30.7 YPC!) and three TDs plus WR Brown has six catches (22.8 YPC) with one TD. I will comment on these numbers in just a bit. QB Levi Lewis has been solid for ULL (723 yards with 4 TDs and 3 INTs), backed by a decent running game averaging 168.7 YPG on 5.1 YPC. Mitchell is the best RB, with 210 yards on 8.8 YPC with two TDs. A trio of WRs include LeBlanc (12 catches / 16.2 YPC / 1 TD), Lacy (6 catches / 19.7 YPC / 1 TD) and Pauley (4 catches / 20.5 YPC).

Getting back to the VERY good offensive numbers put up by Coastal Carolina this year, not that the Chanticleers have faced only Kansas (maybe the WORST Power-5 school in the nation), which is 0-3 and allowing 44.0 PPG. Campbell (Big South) is an FCS school is 0-4, allowing 47.0 PPG and Arkansas St is 1-2, allowing 40.0 PPG. I'm NOT all that concerned with ULL's "close calls" against Ga State and Georgia Southern. I'd rather remind all about its win at Iowa St, which is back in the top25 at No. 20, after wins at TCU, a home win over Oklahoma (1st since 1960) and a 31-15 home win over Texas Tech. ULL is 11-2 SU at home under Napier, with one loss coming 17-7 against Appalachian St (in 2019) and against Coastal Carolina a 30-28 in 2018. Rajin' Cajuns WILL remember and an impressive win here will put ULL in the discussion for a Group of 5 bowl bid. Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* MNF Magic is on the LA Chargers at 8:15 ET.

The 1-3 LA Chargers are in New Orleans for a MNF contest against the 2-2 Saints. The Chargers drafted Philip Rivers back in 2004 and he took over as the team's starting QB in 2006 and started EVERY game for the team over the last 14 seasons. However, the Chargers only made the playoffs in TWO of the previous 10 seasons. He left via free agency with the Chargers drafting Oregon QB Justin Herbert with the sixth pick of the 1st round in the 2020 draft as his eventual replacement. Tyrod Taylor started in Week 1, a game the Chargers won 16-13 at Cincinnati. However, a team doctor accidentally punctured one of the Taylor's lungs, while attempting to administer a shot to Tyrod Taylor's ribs. Taylor has been sidelined ever since and while the Chargers have lost three in a row, don't blame Herbert. He's completing 72.0% for 931 yards in his three starts, with five TDs, three INTs and a QB rating of 102.2 (more later).

Herbert was just 6 years old when Drew Brees left his final game for the Chargers with a career-threatening shoulder injury. A decade-and-a-half later, they're set to be on opposite sidelines on MNF. Brees has broken about every passing record that matters since joining New Orleans in 2006. However, while Brees has not made it back to a Super Bowl since his only championship in the 2008 season, his efficiency has been as good as ever the past couple of seasons. He set an NFL record with a 74.4% completion rate in 2018 and nearly matched it last season, when he completed 74.3% of his passes, while also throwing a career-low four interceptions. He enters this game completing 71.3% of his passes for 1,006 yards with eight TDs and two INTs for a 108.7 QB rating.

The Chargers will NOT have RB Austin Ekeler for this game due to a hamstring injury and that's NOT good news. He's run for 248 yards (5.1 YPC) and has 17 catches. UCLA rookie Joshua Kelley gets the start and he's run for 174 yards, averaging only 3.3 YPC. Herbert does have excellent receivers, headlined by Keenan Allen, who has 32 catches (the last three seasons, Allen has had 102, 97 and 104 catches with six TDs receptions in each season). Mike Williams may be back for this one and that would be great news. He had 49 catches (20.4 YPC) last season and 43 catches with 10 TDs in 2018. TE Henry has 18 catches, adding to Herbert's 'weapons.'

Speaking of WRs, the Saints are still listing Michael Thomas as questionable with a groin injury that has kept him out the last three games. Thomas caught 149 passes in 2019, an NFL record for the most in a single season. RB Alvin Kamara has been terrific, rushing for 236 yards with four TDs and grabbing a team-high 30 receptions for three TDs. Murray is an excellent backup, rushing for 184 yards with two TDs. Brees needs WRs Smith (14 catches / 2 TDs) and Sanders (14 catches / 2 TDs) to contribute more, if Thomas is not back.

Comparing the defenses shows that while the Chargers are allowing 373.8 YPG to the Saints' 334.3 YPG, LA is holding opponents to 23.8 PPG, while New Orleans is allowing 30.8 PPG (that's a full TD difference!). Herbert passed for over 300 yards in his first two starts and while he had 290 last week, he completed 20 of 25 passes with three TDs and one INT, giving him a QB rating of 137.9. Yes, the Chargers have lost three straight but they took defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City to OT and only a dropped lateral on the final play deprived them of a golden opportunity to pull out a Week 3 win over Carolina. Last week, they led Brady and the Bucs 24-7, before losing 38-31. Meanwhile, the Saints fell behind 14-0 early at Detroit, before scoring TDs on FIVE consecutive drives. Those things happen when a team is playing the sad-sack Lions, who have lost 12 of their last 13 games, going 3-10 ATS. The Chargers will battle you all the way and are 2-0 ATS as a road dog already this season. Take the big points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the Min Vikings at 8:15 ET.

The Minnesota Vikings went 10-6 last season and as the NFC's No. 6 seed, played at New Orleans (No. 3 seed with a 13-3 record) and upset the Saints, 26-20 in OT. Seattle went 11-5 last season and captured the NFC's No. 5 seed and drew the NFC East champion Eagles, who they beat 17-9. Both teams then lost road games at San Francisco and Green Bay, respectively. These same two teams meet tonight in Seattle for SNF on NBC but their respective 2020 seasons have begun quite differently. The Vikings opened 0-3 before winning their first game of the season last Sunday 31-23 at Houston, which has opened 0-4. Meanwhile, Seattle has opened 4-0 SU and ATS. 

Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer has been known for his defense but this year's Vikings are allowing 31.3 PPG on 426.5 YPG. QB Kirk Cousins entered the current season off two excellent seasons, completing 70.1% for 4,298 yards with 30 TDs and 10 INTs (99.7 QB rating) in 2018 and then completed 69.1% for 3,603 yards with 26 TDs and six INTs (107.4 rating) last season. He played OK vs Green Bay in Week 1 (19 of 25 for 259 yards with two TDs and one INT / 118.6 QB rating) but that performance was dwarfed by Aaron Rodgers' 364 passing yards with four TDs in a 43-34 Green Bay win. Cousins struggled in Weeks 2 and 3 with FIVE interceptions but bounced back in the team's road win at Houston last Sunday, going 16 of 22 for 260 yards with one TD and zero INTs (127.1 rating). RB Dalvin Cook ran for just 113 yards in Minnesota's 0-2 SU and ATS start but for 311 yards (6.4 YPC) with three TDs in the Vikings' last two games (team is 2-0 ATS). Stefon Diggs has shuffled off to Buffalo but veteran Adam Thielen has 20 catches *(14.2 YPC) with four TDs and is loving the chance to mentor LSU rookie Jefferson, who has 15 catches, averaging 21.8 YPC. TE Rudolph, who has averaged 58 catches the last five years while catching 40 TDs, is off to a slow start (eight catches and one TD).

2020 has opened as "The Year of the QB" and it's hard to find anyone playing better than Seattle's Russell Wilson. He's completed 75.2% for 1,285 with 16 TDs and just two INTs (136.7 QB rating leads the NFL). He's tied Peyton Manning's record with 16 TD passes in the first four games and already has 16 completions of more than 20 yards and is averaging 9.4 YPA. RB Carson ran for just 21 yards in Week 1 but caught six passes with two going for TDs. The last three games, he's run for a solid 216 yards on 6.3 YPC. WRs Lockett (26 catches / 4 TDs) and Metcalf (16 catches / 25.2 YPC / 3 TDs) are a dynamic duo plus TE Olsen has 14 catches (one TD) and RB Carson 15 catches with three TDs. The issue has been Seattle's defense, which has allowed a league-high (meaning worst!) 476.8 YPG. The Seahawks have allowed 27.3 PPG, a figure which would likely be higher if their offense wasn't playing so well, which has kept opposing offenses off the field.

Seattle has a bye next week and would love nothing more than to head into that week off at 5-0. However, the history books tell us Seattle has NEVER started a season 5-0. As for the Vikings, a closer look at their season reveals that despite the team's 1-3 start, there's some optimism lying beneath the surface. Minnesota has been at its best inside the red zone booth offensively and defensively. The offense is tied for eighth in the NFL in goal-to-go TD rate (87.5%) and fifth in inside-the-20 TD rate (76.9%). The defense is seventh in goal-to-go TD rate (58.3%) and second in inside-the-20 TD rate (41.2%).

These teams are meeting for the FIFTH since 2015 (high number for non-division opponents), including last season in Seattle, when the Seahawks won 37-30 but were just a three-point favorite, Here, Minnesota gets a full TD and they'll get a break as CenturyLink Field (arguably the NFL's toughest home venue) will be silent outside of what gets piped through the stadium speaker system. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My Oddsmaker's Error is on the Atl Falcons at 1:00 ET.

The Panthers opened the season with back-to-back losses plus saw the team's MVP, RB Christian McCaffrey, go down with an injury during Week 2's loss. However, Teddy Bridgewater is showing promise as a long-term replacement for Cam Newton at QB, plus RB Mike Davis (in his 7th season) is flourishing as a short-term substitute for McCaffrey. The Panthers are 2-0 without McCaffrey and travel to Atlanta on Sunday to face the winless Falcons (0-4). Atlanta couldn't handle Russell Wilson in Week (no other team has either) but then blew HUGE leads in losing back-to-back games at Dallas and home to the Bears. The Falcons then lost this past Monday night 30-16 in Green Bay, as Rodgers ripped them for four TD passes..

Are the Panthers emerging as a surprise contender in the NFC South? A loss here would negate that theory. Bridgewater has completed 73.1% of his passes for 1,147 yards but has a modest four TD passes (also three INTs). He went 5-0 as a starter in New Orleans last season when Brees missed time and enters this game 18-8 as starting QB since 2015. mike Davis has done little in his first six NFL seasons but he's started the last two weeks, gaining 130 yards on 29 carries (4.5 YPC).Bridgewater has a trio of WRs that are not bad at all, with free agent pickup Robby Anderson's 28 catches being among the leaders through four weeks, plus Moore (18 catches / 16.0 YPC) and Samuel (14 catches) also contributing. The defense allowed 65 points in opening 0-2 but has allowed just 37 points in the team's back-to-back wins.

Matt Ryan, who somehow earned the nickname "Matty Ice," despite winning NOTHING, can still throw the ball. He's passed for 1,246 yards through four games, with seven TDs and just two INTs. He's got plenty of receivers, including Julio Jones, who is one of the best when healthy. He missed the second half against Green Bay after aggravating a hamstring injury that caused him to miss the previous week against Chicago. He has 15 catches in 2 1/2 games and has a history of finding a way to play games after missing practice time because of injuries. Fellow WRs Ridley (21 catches / 16.6 YPC / 4 TDs) and Gage (19 catches) are excellent options, as is TE Hurst (13 catches / 2 TDs). Todd Gurley was a key FA pickup but so far has been average (254 rushing yards on 3.9 YPC) but does have four TDs. The defense is another story, ranking 31st (of 32 teams) in points allowed (34.5 per) and total yards (448.3 YPG).

The Falcons won their last four games last season to save head coach Dan Quinn's job but after an 0-4 start in 2020, Quinn's job status is again the subject of weekly speculation. It could be "win or else" here for Quinn, considering the Falcons have owned this series over the past four seasons, going 7-1 SU & ATS. That includes 29-3 and 40-20 victories a year ago. Carolina is just 8-17 ATS (32%) against NFC South opponents its last 25. The line says WIN and COVER for Atlanta and that's my bet!

Good luck...Larry 

My 10* AFC Game of the Month is on the Hou Texans at 1:00 ET.

The Houston Texans win the AFC South with a 10-16 record last season, the team's FOURTH division title in a  five-year span. Houston would edge Buffalo 23-20 (OT) in the wild card round in 2019 and then went to KC, where it took a 24-0 lead over the Chiefs, before getting run over by Patrick Mahomes and Co. KC would score the game's next 41 points, on their way to a 51-31. I realize that Bill O'Brien was the team's head coach in each of the team's four division-winning seasons but NEVER warmed to him as a head coach. I was really surprised that following that loss to the Chiefs, the Texans appointed O'Brien to the role of general manager. Houston had gone the entire 2019 season with the position vacant. During the offseason, O'Brien traded DeAndre Hopkins (the team's best receiver) to the Arizona Cardinals, a move that was heavily criticized. Star defensive end J.J. Watt wouldn't address reports that he got into a verbal altercation with O'Brien in practice two weeks ago but he did say that he thought a team with Deshaun Watson at quarterback needed a change after the 0-4 start. O'Brien was fired by the Texans on October 5, 2020. Team owner Cal McNair then made Romeo Crennel the team's interim coach for the rest of this season. Crennel has been an assistant for O'Brien since 2014 and has coached both the Browns and the Chiefs in an NFL and college career spanning 50 years (more on him later).

Visiting Houston on Sunday will be the 1-3 Jacksonville Jaguars. QB Gardner Minshew took over for an injured Nick Foles as a rookie last season and showed plenty of promise. He has opened his sophomore season completing 72.1 percent for 1,138 yards with eight TDs and four INTs (101.2 QB rating). The Jags have a shaky OL with Minshew being sacked 13 times. He also gets little help from his running game, which is averaging just 104.3 YPG. The team's best WR, DJ Chark (73 catches and 8 TDS as a rookie), returned in Week 4, after missing Week 3's game. He had EIGHT catches last Sunday, giving him 15 (in three games), averaging 13.6 YPC with three TDs (two came last week). WRs Cole (19 catches / 10.2 YPC / 2 TDs) and Shenault (16 catches / 11.9 YPC / one TD) are decent 'helpers.' The Jacksonville D is allowing 399.5 YPG and also 29.3 PPG (not good).

Watson signed a HUGE extension before the season and the Texans didn't expect an 0-4 starts. Watson is completing 65.6% for 1,092 yards with six TDs and three INTs (solid but NOT what Houston needs). He's also added very little 'with his legs,' rushing for only 58 yards (3.4 YPC) without a TD. The overall running game is a mess, as David Johnson looked good in Week 1 (77 yards on 11 carries) but he's gained only 120 yards the last three games on 40 attempts (3.0 YPC). Houston misses Hopkins but Fuller (18 catches / 15.2 YPC / 2 TDs) is excellent plus veterans Randall Cobb and Brandin Cooks have been excellent receivers in this league. TE Akins (14 catches with one TD), is MORE than adequate. The defense allows 393. YPG and 31.5 PPG. Do I need to add a comment?

Getting back to Crennel, his head coaching record in the NFL is 'ugly.' He is 28-55 (.337) in five-plus seasons with the Browns and Chiefs but he's had an excellent history as an assistant, being part of coaching staffs that won FIVE Super Bowl titles. Parcells and Belichick may have had something to do with that. He's well-liked and while he is NOT the long-term solution for Houston, I say he's just perfect for this underachieving team, right now. Let me note that Houston may be 0-4 but the Texans opened the season with KC (4-0), Baltimore (3-1) and Pittsburgh (3-0). Of course, there's NO excuse for last week's loss to the previously winless Vikings. However, Minnesota was a playoff team in 2019. 

Anyway, I'm expecting a great effort from Houston and for the Jaguars to play the perfect foil. It seems like light years ago that the Jags led the Pats in New England in the AFC championship game in the mid-fourth quarter, before falling 24-20. However, that was actually the 2017 season, The Jags opened 3-1 in 2018 but then 'imploded,' going 2-10 the rest of the way. A 6-10 season followed in 2019 and the team's 1-3 start this season means the Jags are 9-23 since that 3-1 start in 2018, including 4-13 on the road. Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* "Big Dog" is on Ole Miss at 7:30 ET.

No. 2 Alabama travels to Oxford Mississippi to take on Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin, who was Nick Saban's offensive coordinator for three seasons at Alabama (2014-16) the Tide won three SEC championships and one national championship in that span but like with all situations involving Kiffin, all separations are at least a little controversial. Saban needs no introduction but here's a quick history of Kiffin.

Legendary Raiders' owner Al Davis hired Lane Kiffin back on January 23, 2007, making the 31-year-old the youngest head coach in the NFL's "modern era" (since 1946). The "Boy Genius" would go 4-12 in his first season and then after opening 1-3 in his second season, was fired. He's since made a one-year controversial 'stop at Tennessee, spent three-plus seasons at USC after Pete Carroll bolted to the NFL to escape NCAA sanctions and then was OC for Nick Saban at Alabama. He then landed at FAU in 2017 where he went 11-3, 5-7 and 10-3, leaving for Ole Miss last season before FAU was headed back to the Boca Raton Bowl, which the Owls had won back in 2017. Kiffin's debut for Ole Miss saw his team gain 613 yards but allow 642 to Florida, as Gators QB Trask threw for 416 yards (6 TDs and 0 INTs). However, the Rebels fought back from a 28-14 deficit  in the third quarter last Saturday at Kentucky, with Ole Miss winning 42-41 in OT.

The adage is, Saban never loses against head coaches who worked for him. Saban ran his record to 4-0 against former assistant Jimbo Fisher in a 52-24 victory against Texas A&M last Saturday, making him 20-0 against former assistants. Alabama QB Mac Jones passed for a career-high 435 yards and four TDs against A&M and is completing 74.5% of his passes for 684 yards with six TDs and one INT. He leads the country in passing efficiency with a rating of 222.1. WR Smith leads the team with 14 catches and Washington is right behind him with 13, averaging 21.2 YPC  and hauling in three TDs. Metchie has just seven catches but is averaging a WHOPPING 31.9 YPC with two TDs. What has been missing so far with Alabama's is its running game. It's just two games but Alabama has run for only 110.0 YPG on 3.4 YPC. In comparison, Alabama has averaged right about 210 YPG the last SEVEN seasons. The Alabama D has also been 'soft,' allowing 386.0 YPG, compared to 294 YPG the last seven seasons.

Alabama's Jones has been excellent but so has Ole Miss QB Matt Corral, who has completed 76.7 percent of his passes for 715 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception (he ranks 3rd in passing efficiency with a rating of 211.9). Corral's top target is Moore (20 catches / 15.9 YPC / one TD) but TE Yeboah has been a real playmaker. He's caught eight passes with an average of 21.8 YPC and two TDs. Mingo also has eight receptions (16.0 YPC) and two TDs and Drummond has just two catches with BOTH going for TDs. The Rebels' running game is not all that great but Ole Miss is averaging about 40 YPG more than Alabama (154.5 YPG). 

The Ole Miss defense will NOT win this game (meaning cover) but the Ole Miss offense has the ability to stay within this generous pointspread. That's the play!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Kentucky at 7:30 ET.

Mike Leach is known for building potent offenses, directing passing-oriented teams in a spread offense system known as the "air raid" offense. He helped develop it with Hal Mumme when Mumme was head coach and Leach was offensive coordinator at Iowa Wesleyan, Valdosta State and Kentucky in the 1990s. Leach's offenses with Mumme, and later as a head coach himself, have broken numerous school and NCAA records. led Texas Tech to 10 straight bowls from 2000 through 2009 but was fired under controversial circumstances. Leach surfaced at Washington St in 2012 and after three losing seasons (two at 3-9), led teh Cougars to FIVE straight bow games. Leach agreed to be the head coach of the Mississippi State Bulldogs on January 9, 2020.

Kentucky hired Mark Stoops back on November 27, 2012, He was just 2-10 in his first season and then followed with back-to-back 5-5 seasons. However, he's led the Wildcats to FOUR straight winning season from 2016-19 and to four consecutive bowls, as well. The 2018 season was a historic one for the Wildcats, as they snapped a 31-year losing streak to Florida, finishing 9-3, only the fourth time in school history that the Wildcats have won at least nine games. Kentucky then defeated Penn State in the Citrus Bowl on January, 1st, 2019 giving the Wildcats their first 10 win season since 1977, and only their third in school history. Stoops was named SEC Coach of the Year. The 2019 season was one of overcoming adversity. After a 2-3 start in which they lost all of their QBs to injury, Kentucky turned to WR Lynn Bowden Jr. to take over at QB. With a revamped offense, the Wildcats finished the regular Season 7-5 routing Louisville 45-13 on Senior Day. Kentucky then capped the season with a thrilling win over Virginia Tech in the Belk Bowl, as the Wildcats scored the winning TD with 15 seconds remaining for an 8-5 finish.

Leach's debut for Miss St saw the Bulldogs upset defending champion LSU 44-34 on the road. C.J. Costello (a graduate transfer from Stanford) set a single-game SEC record with 623 passing yards (he threw 5 TDs). However, Miss St fell back to earth last Saturday, losing 21-14 at home to Arkansas (as a 16.5 favorite), which has lost 20 straight SEC games. Costello threw for 31 3 yards but had just one TD and three INTs. Costello has thrown 60 passes against LSU and 59 vs Arkansas, while the Miss St running game has produced a total of just 96 yards in those contests.

Kentucky lost its season opener 29-13 at then-No. 8 Auburn, but the game was pretty close. The Wildcats seemingly scored a TD right before the half (were trailing 8-7 at the time) but a review said no (sure looked like a TD to me). Auburn then picked off a pass at the goal line on the VERY next play and while Auburn's "pick-six) was waived off because of another questionable call, the Wildcats never really recovered, Kentucky was within 15-13 in the fourth quarter but a fumble and then a failed 4th-down conversion attempt on back-to-back possessions, led to Auburn TD drives of 23 and 27 yards. Kentucky held Auburn to just 15 FDs and 324 yards. Kentucky was home last Saturday against Ole Miss and couldn't hold a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter, eventually losing 42-41 in OT, on a missed extra-point. 

QB Wilson threw for 239 yards vs Auburn but against Ole miss had just 151 passing yards, completing 14 of 18; However, he added 129 yards rushing with three TDs, as two Kentucky RBs topped 100 yards rushing as well. The Wildcats ran for 408 yards on 5.6 YPC. Not many teams lose when gaining over 400 yards on the ground.

Running the ball effectively will keep Costello and Leach's "air raid" offense off the field and Kentucky sure doesn't want to open 0-3. Kentucky entered 2020 having gone 12-3 SU at home the previous two seasons. The fact that the home team is 5-0 SU & ATS in the last five meetings between these two schools works for Kentucky. As does the fact that Miss St had gone 0-6 ATS as a rod dog the last three seasons, before its shocking win at LSU. The pointspread says "close call but I'm saying W-I-P-E-O-U-T!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Rivalry Game of the Year is on Oklahoma at 12:00 ET.

Oklahoma & Texas meet in the Red River Showdown for the 116th time. Texas holds a 62-48-5 edge all-time but the Sooners have won 14 of the 21 meetings since 2000. However, the "vibe" is different in 2020 for MANY reasons. The Red River Showdown is one of the most unique games in college football. The are fans split down the 50-yard-line. The State Fair of Texas is bustling just outside the Cotton Bowl gates and the bus rides by the teams through the fairgrounds to the stadium are jam-packed with thousands of fans lining the streets either cheering or jeering. COIVID-19 has changed all that. "To pull into the fairgrounds without anybody there will be a little eerie," Sooners head coach Lincoln Riley said. "It'll be different, there's no doubt. And that's just 2020 right now, I guess."

What also makes this great rivalry different in 2020 is that the Sooners come in 1-2 (0-2 Big 12) after being beaten 37-30 at home by Kansas State last week. Oklahoma lost in Ames for the first time since 1960 and has now dropped back-to-back regular-season games (lost 38-35 at home to Iowa St on Sep 26) for the first time since 1999. The Sooners were No. 3 in the AP poll two weeks ago but the loss to Iowa St dropped them out of the top-25 after spending 64 consecutive weeks inside the AP top-25. Texas also lost last Saturday 33-31 to TCU, when the Longhorns fumbled at the Horned Frogs goal line on a 1st and goal play with about four minutes to go. Texas (1-1 / 0-1 Big 12) remained in the rankings last Sunday, although the 'Horns dropped from No. 9 to No. 22. Last Saturday's results have Oklahoma and Texas meeting with NEITHER school in the top-20 for the 1st time since 1999!

Oklahoma has a freshman QB in Spencer Rattler and he's completing 73.4% with 10 TDs and four INTs. CeeDee Lamb (62 catches / 21.4 YPC / 14 TDs) is now in the NFL but WRs Rambo (11 catches / 18.2 YPC / 4 TDs) and Mims (10 catches / 12.3 YPC / 2 TDs) are quality players plus RB Stogner has 11 catches (averaging 15.8 YPC) and fellow RB hall has eight receptions goo for three TDs. However, the running game is NOT up to usual standards, averaging only 122.7 YPG on 3.6 YPC. Oklahoma's erratic defensive play has hurt them in the past in the CFP and this year's unit has allowed 38 and 37 points in the team's back-to-back losses.

Texas QB Sam Ehlinger has seemingly been around forever and in three games, has thrown 14 TDs passes against only two INTs while averaging 308.0 YPG passing. Unlike Rattler, Ehlinger has an excellent rushing game to balance the Texas offense, averaging 191.3 YPG on 5.5 YPC.  He's also has a solid trio of WRs in Moore (11 catches / 18.2 YPC / 4 TDs), Schooler (10 catches / 12.3 YPC / 2 TDs) and Eagles, who may have just five receptions but he's averaging 22.2 YPC and three of his five catches have gone for TDs. However, very much like Oklahoma. the Texas defense has allowed 87 points in its last two games (really should have lost at Texas Tech two Saturdays ago) on 899 yards!

One team's season will be 'in tatters' after this game and my bet says the Sooners just WON'T lose THREE in a row. No John Blake sighting this Saturday at the Cotton Bowl. For those who need a reminder, Blake served as the head coach for the Oklahoma Sooners from 1996 to 1998, compiling a career record of 12–22, which is the worst three-year stretch at the University of Oklahoma football history. 

Good luck...Larry