Football Archive | |||||||
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
10-24-21 | Chiefs v. Titans +4.5 | Top | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 31 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Ten Titans at 1:00 ET. The KC Chiefs have won the AFC West each of the last FIVE seasons but here in Week 7, find themselves 3-3 and tied for last-place in the division they've recently dominated. Good news is that the Chargers and Raiders are just 4-2 and the 2021 season features 17 games. The Titans opened the season losing 38-10 at home to the Cardinals and the loss was a bit of a shocker. SIX weeks later, Arizona is the NFL's lone unbeaten at 6-0 (5-1 ATS). Tennessee has won four of five since, losing only 27-24 in OT at the Jets (now that REMAINS a head-scratcher!). KC is off 31-13 win at Washington, while Tennessee is off an impressive 34-31 home win Monday night over the Bills. |
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10-24-21 | Falcons v. Dolphins +2.5 | Top | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
My 9* Losers Day Out play is on the Mia Dolphins at 1:00 ET. Atlanta joined the NFL in 1966, the same year Miami entered the AFL. The Falcons have been to just ONE Super Bowl (2016) and blew a 28-3 lead. The Dolphins won back-to-back Super Bowls ('72 & '73) and have NOT won one since. 2-4 Atlanta is at 1-5 Miami on Sunday in what I'm dubbing a "Losers Day Out" play. The Falcons are 2-3 but note that the wins have come over the Giants and Jets, who are a combined 2-9. Miami won at New England in Week 1 but has since lost FIVE in a row (1-4) The Falcons have played the Dolphins just three times in Matt Ryan's career (Atlanta is 1-2) but note that in each meeting, Miami's had a different QB lead them. That trend will continue Sunday, as Tua Tagovailoa has never faced Atlanta. Previous Miami QBs that Ryan has gone up against are Chad Pennington (2009), Ryan Tannehill (2013) and Jay Cutler (2017).
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10-23-21 | USC +7 v. Notre Dame | Top | 16-31 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* CFB Game of the Month is on USC at 7:30 ET. USC/Notre Dame is the greatest intersectional rivalry in CFB history. The schools had met in every season since World War II before this long standing rivalry took a one-season break due to the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. "It's baaack!" in 2021, as No. 13 Notre Dame (5-1) hosts an underachieving USC team that opened 15th in the AP's preseason poll but is currently unranked with a 3-3 record. Notre Dame leads the all-time series 47-36-5, as after after winning SEVEN straight in the series, the Trojans have lost SEVEN of the last 10, including four straight in South Bend. |
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10-23-21 | BYU -4 v. Washington State | Top | 21-19 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 42 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on BYU at 3:30 ET. BYU surprised all by going 11-1 (9-3 ATS) in 2020 (finished 11th in the final coaches' poll) and opened 5-0 in 2021, including notable wins 26-17 over then-No. 21 Utah (ending a 9-game losing streak in "The Holy War") and 27-17 over then-No. 21 Arizona St. However, the Cougars come to Pullman off back-to-back losses, 26-17 at home to Boise St and 38-24 at Baylor. Washington St played just four games in 2020's COVID season, winning its opener and then going 0-3 SU and ATS, while allowing 42.0 PPG. It was Nick Rolovich's first season at Washington St, after he led his alma mater (Hawaii) to a 28-27 record in four years but with three Hawaii Bowl berths (2-1). Rolovich is a former QB, well-liked and the Cougars expected him to revive the program. Wash St opened just 1-3 but then beat Cal (21-16), Oregon St (31-24) and Stanford (34-31) to reach 4-3 (is on a 4-0 ATS streak0. However, as all have to know by now, he was dismissed from his head coaching position, along with four assistants (more later). Washington St QB deLaura has completed 62.6% for 1,476 yards with 15 TDs and 5 INTs. He also has some 'sweet' WRs in Harris (44 catches / 5 TDs), Jackson (37 catches / 4 TDs) and Stribling (24 catches / 4 TDs). However, the Washington St running game averages just 111.7 YPG (114th) on 3.7 YPC with the lone notable contributor being Borghi (421 yards on 5.1 YPC / 5 TDs). The Cougars are scoring 25.7 PPG and allowing 25.7 PPG. |
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10-23-21 | Kansas State +1 v. Texas Tech | Top | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 69 h 15 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Kansas St at 12:00 ET. Chris Kleiman led Kansas St to an 8-5 season in his first year at Kansas St but fell to 4-6 last year. Kansas St opened the 2021 season 3-0, including solid wins over Stanford 24-7 at a neutral site) and 38-17 at Nevada. However, the Wildcats have opened Big 12 play 0-3, allowing 101 points (33.7 PPG) , in losing to Oklahoma St, Oklahoma and Iowa St. Texas Tech began with a 38-21 over Houston (neutral site) and was 3-0 when it got pounded 70-35 by Texas. The Red Raiders rebounded with a 23-20 win at West Va but then lost 52-31 at home to TCU, before beating Big 12 'punching bag' Kansas, 41-14. Head coach Matt Wells is in his third season in Lubbock, after leading Utah St to bowls in five of his six seasons. The Red Raiders have gone 4-8 and 4-6 in his first two seasons but this year's team is 5-2. Wildcats QB Skylar Thompson is 44 of 64 for 526 yards with five touchdowns and one interception in two games since returning from a knee injury. For him to be effective, he needs balance and the running has shown promise (162.5 YPG ranks 69th), with RB Deuce Vaughn rushing for 543 rushing yards on 5.0 YPC and 5 TDs (he's also the team's leading receiver with 23 catches, adding two more TDs). The defense is allowing 24.7 PPG (60th) on 355.2 YPG (52nd), despite struggling against big 12 opponents. The Red Raiders average 168.6 YPG on the ground (63rd) with Thompson (314 yards on 5.0 YPC and 6 TDs) plus Brooks (284 yards on 8.1 YPC with 4 TDs). QB Tyler Shough averaged 218 passing yards per game before breaking his collarbone in the Sept 25 loss to Texas but backup Henry Colombi has stepped right in, averaging 264.5 YPG over the past four games. The Texas Tech defense is allowing 31.4 PPG (102nd) on 386.4 YPG (75th). Kansas St is on a three-game slide but note Oklahoma St and Oklahoma are both unbeaten, while Iowa St was ranked No. 7 in the preseason (pretty tough three-game stretch). For one, Texas Tech head coach Matt Wells is not buying the fact that Kansas State is struggling. "K-State has beat us (five) years in a row," Wells said. "They're tough; they're physical. I have a lot of respect for Chris Kleiman. I think Skylar Thompson is gritty and tough. He has a lot of moxie. Deuce Vaughn is one of the best in the country, and they've got some guys in the special teams that keep you up at night." Great situation for Kansas St to get back in the win column after a rough three-game stretch. Kansas St has gone 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS against Texas Tech since 2011. What changes here? Nothing. Good luck...Larry |
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10-22-21 | Memphis v. Central Florida -1.5 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 82 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* AAC Game of the Year is on UCF at 7:00 ET. Ryan Silverfield was hired by Mike Norvell as an assistant at Memphis to begin the 2016 season. He was elevated to assistant head coach in 2019, and was named interim head coach when Norvell left to take the head coach position at Florida State. he promoted to head coach on December 13 and debuted in his first college game as head coach against Penn State in the 2019 Cotton Bowl Classic (lost 53-39). He led the Tigers to an 8-3 season in 2020 (first as a head coach), including a 25-10 win over FAU in the Montgomery Bowl, which marked Memphis' 7th straight bowl appearance. Gus Malzahn's team has been bombarded with injuries in the early going but this guy is a quality coach and I don't expect last week's 56-21 loss at now-No. 2 Cincinnati to keep this team down. QB Dillon Gabriel is sidelined by an injury and is missed but freshman Mikey Keene is capable. RBs Richardson (317 yards / 6.1 YPC / one TD) and Bowser (295 yards / 4.6 YPC / 6 TDs) lead a strong running game averaging 204.2 YPG (129th). Like Memphis, the UCF defense leaves much to be desired, allowing 32.2 PPG (107th0. I'm a fan of Malzahn. During his eight seasons at Auburn, he was 68-35, including THREE wins over Alabama plus made a trip to the 2013 national championship game where the Tigers lost 34-31 to FSU when the Seminoles scored with 13 seconds Neither team is going to beat you with its defense, but the Tigers' inconsistencies from one week to the next makes them untrustworthy here. What does matter is, series history and the home field advantage. UCF had won 13 straight over Memphis before losing 50-49 at Memphis in 2020. Methinks, UCF remembers. UCF was 21-0 SU at home from 2017-19, before going just 2-2 last season. Throw in UCF's 3-0 home record in 2021 and that's 26-2 SU at home since the start of the 2017 season. At this price, UCF is a HUGE play! |
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10-21-21 | Broncos +3.5 v. Browns | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 51 h 41 m | Show |
My 9* AFC Game of the Week is on the Den Broncos at 8:20 ET. The Denver Broncos surprised most by opening 3-0 but the team 'limps' into Cleveland Thursday night on a three-game slide, after a 34-24 home loss to the Las Vegas Raiders last Sunday. The Browns made the playoffs last season (ending a 17-year drought) and opened the season by almost beating the Chiefs in KC. The Browns led throughout but gave way in the 4th quarter. Cleveland responded with three straight wins but enters this contest off a 47-42 shootout loss in LA vs the Chargers and a humbling 37-14 to the now 6-0 Cardinals! |
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10-18-21 | Bills v. Titans +6.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* MNF Magic play is on the Ten Titans at 8:15 ET. Buffalo went 13-3 last season and made the AFC championship game where they lost to KC. big things were expected in 2021 but the Bills fell apart in the 4th quarter of Week 1 in a 23-16 loss to Pittsburgh. However, the Bills have brushed aside that loss by winning FOUR in a row, going 4-0 ATS. The Bills lead the NFL with a scoring average at 34.4 PPG, while allowing a league-low 12.8 PPG. That gives them a NFL-best point differential of 21.6 PPG. Last Monday, the Bills avenged their AFC championship game loss at KC with a dominating 38-20 win over the Chiefs and now play a second straight primetime game looking to avenge a 42-16 loss at Tennessee in Week 5 of 2020. Tennessee opened the 2021 season by getting humbled at home 38-17 by Arizona, a loss that looked shocking at the time. Of course, now that Arizona is 6-0, he doesn't look so bad. The Titans have won THREE of four since Week 1 but the lone loss was a 'UGLY' one, falling 27-24 in OT to the Jets (New York's lone win of the 2021 season). The Bills defense has been dominant all season, ranking No. 1 in points allowed (12.8 PGG) and in total defense (251.8 YPG). QB Josh Allen developed into an elite QB in 2020 and hasn't let up this season, completing 62.3% for 1,370 yards with 12 TDs and two INTs (102.5 QB rating). He also has 188 yards rushing (5.4 YPC / 2 TDs), to contribute to a running game averaging 140.4 YPG (5th). Singletary (284 yards / 5.2 YPC) and Moss (184 yards / 4.0 YPC) are a solid RB duo. Buffalo's receiving depth is impressive, led by WRs Diggs (28 catches), the ageless Sanders (19 catches / 16.9 YPC / 4 TDs) and Beasley (26 catches), plus TE Knox (18 catches / 14.5 YPC / 5 TDs). Tennessee's Ryan Tannehill is no Allen but he's a quality QB, he enters completing 63.6% for 1,251 yards with six TDs and three INTs. The second-ranked rushing attack (167.8 YPG) is led by Henry, who has run for 640 yards on 4.5 YPC with seven TDs. The Titans' receiving corps pales in comparison to Buffalo's and the defense has allowed 26.0 PPG (24th) on 377.4 YPG (23rd). On paper, the Bills are clearly the better team but this is the NFL. The Bills are primed for a letdown in this difficult road venue, especially after smashing the Chiefs 38-20 in Kansas City in primetime last weekend. Let me add that the Bills also have their bye week next week, followed by a favorable home matchup against the Dolphins and road contests at Jacksonville and the Jets. QB Ryan Tannehill says the team's offense is trending in the right direction. The Titans are starting to heal up, especially some key players. Seven-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Julio Jones is practicing after missing two straight games with an injured hamstring and while A.J. Brown isn't yet at 100 percent, he played last week despite a hamstring problem. Of course, Henry is the key. He has already tied his career-long streak rushing for at least 100 yards in four straight games and another would tie Eddie George's string of five in 1998. Henry also has run for at least 50 yards in 30 straight games, the third-longest streak in the NFL since 1960, trailing only Priest Holmes (38 in 2001-03) and Chris Carson (31 in 1993-95). Tennessee owns a comfortable two-game lead in the pathetic AFC South and should have more than a little bit of confidence after last year's beatdown of Buffalo. Upset alert? Maybe but taking the points is the way to go. Good luck...Larry |
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10-17-21 | Seahawks v. Steelers -5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic play is on the Pit Steelers at 8:20 ET. Russell Wilson underwent surgery Oct 8 on his right middle finger because of an injury sustained the previous night in a 26-17 loss to the Los Angeles Rams. He had started all 165 games (regular season and playoffs) since arriving as a rookie in 2012 but suffered a ruptured tendon in what is often referred to as mallet finger and a fracture/dislocation of the joint at the top of the finger. Wilson is almost certain to miss the Sunday Night game at Pittsburgh, meaning Geno Smith will make his first start since 2017. Wilson was completing 72.0% with 10 TDs and a QB rating of 125.3. According to Pete Carroll, there's NOT much to worry about. "Everybody believes that (Smith is) going to come through and do a great job, just like he showed the other night," Carroll said. "So we need to support him and give him the help he needs by playing good ball around him and coaching real well around him and be really excited to see what the outcome is. I think there's a lot of things that change in a young guy's mind when he gets this opportunity, but (Smith has) been there a lot. It's just been awhile. ... He loves the fact that he's got this chance to help his team. That's why he's been here. He's been here for this opportunity when it does arise." OK, Pete. Smith has played in 42 NFL games, making 31 starts (teams are 12-19). He's completing just 57.9% (that's close to 72%, right) with a TD-to-INT ratio of 30/37 and a QB rating of 73.0 (just barely below 125.0, right?). Wilson has led Seattle to playoff appearances in EIGHT of his first nine years in the league but at 2-3, the Seahawks are in some trouble here in 2021, as Arizona (5-0) is the NFL's lone unbeaten and the Rams are 4-1, having already beaten Seattle (Rams also have given Tampa Bay its lone loss). RB Carson had run for 232 yards on 4.3 YPC with three TDS but missed the previous game (neck injury). He has missed practice time this week, but Carroll said he was encouraged by Carson's progress. Have to give it to Pete, he's an optimist. WRs Lockett (15.6 YPC / 3 TDs and Metcalf (145.3 YPC / 5 TDs0 have each caught 25 passes but are they still "Lockett and Metcalf" without Wilson? Then there is the Seattle defense, which allows 145.2 YPG on the ground to rank 31st and 305.6 YPG through the air to rank 30th. Add it up and Seattle allows a league-high 450.8 YPG. The Steelers are also 2-3 as they welcome Seattle to Heinz Field and also find some tough competition in their own division. Baltimore is 4-1, while Cincinnati and Cleveland are both 3-2. The Steelers outscored the Bills 17-6 in the 4th quarter of their season-opening 23-16 win in Buffalo but then lost THREE in a row. Pittsburgh may have 'saved' its season with last week's 27-19 home win over Denver. Alabama rookie RB Harris had a "breakout game," running for 122 yards on 5.3 YPC with a TD. He's got 307 yards on the season and is the team's leading receiver with 28 receptions. Big Ben is still around (63.6%, averaging 259.0 YPG with 6 TDs and 4 INTs) but he's NOT the same player these days. He had three very good WRs but JuJu Smith-Schuster sustained a dislocated shoulder last Sunday and underwent season-ending surgery Wednesday. Claypool has 20 catches on 17.0 YPC plus Johnson has 25 catches with three TDs. The Pittsburgh D is no longer called "The Steel Curtain" but it is allowing 22.4 PPG, which ranks 10th. I see this as a fantastic opportunity for the Steelers to build off last week's 29-17 win over the Broncos. Pittsburgh will be able to "leave everything on the field" Sunday night, as it will go into its bye next weekend (followed by a very tough road game in Cleveland). A win here and Pittsburgh can reasonably think playoffs. A loss and I'm not so sure. I have found that sometimes a "common sense" approach to handicapping a game works best, and that's the case here for me with Seattle. No Wilson, BIG problem (sorry Geno!). Meanwhile, it's a great chance for Big Ben to "turn back the clock" against Seattle's sieve-like defense and keep his team in playoff contention (consideration, at least). I expect him to make the most of this opportunity and note that Seattle is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games and that's WITH Russell! Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns -3 | Top | 37-14 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* "Signature" 38-Club Play is on the Cle Browns at 4:05 ET. Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield won the 2017 Heisman Trophy as Oklahoma's QB and was then the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft. The following season, Kyler Murray stepped in as Oklahoma's QB and won the 2018 Heisman and then became the 2019 NFL Draft's No.1 pick. The former No. 1 overall draft picks and college teammates square off for the second time in three years when the 5-0 Arizona Cardinals visit Cleveland to take on the 3-2 Browns on Sunday. Murray's been the key to Arizona's first 5-0 start since 1974 (team was located in St Louis back then), while Mayfield led the browns into the playoffs last season (ending a 17-year drought) and has helped position them as a division contender again in 2021 in the AFC North. |
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10-17-21 | Chargers v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 6-34 | Win | 100 | 75 h 23 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET. A pair of 4-1 teams square off in Baltimore on Sunday, as the Chargers take on the Ravens. It's no surprise that the Ravens are 4-1 and atop the AFC Central but the Chargers leading the AFC West IS a surprise. MUCH has happened in the AFC West since last Sunday, as while the Chargers outscored the Browns 47-42 (to get to 4-1), the Broncos and Raiders each lost for the second straight week (both are now 3-2), plus the five-time defending AFC West champs (KC) were humbled 38-20 by the Bills, falling into last-place at 2-3. Then earlier this week, Jon Gruden resigned as head coach of the Raiders to join the 'Mel Gibson Club!' After just five games, Brandon Staley looks to be the best of all the first year head coaches in the NFL this season and is at least a HUGE upgrade from Anthony Lynn. QB Justin Herbert had a superb rookie season and has made the term 'sophomore jinx' irrelevant, completing 67.2% for 1,576 yards with 13 TDs and just three INTs. He enters off back-to-back games in which he's thrown five TD passes without an interception. RB Austin Ekeler has developed into a terrific all-purpose player, rushing for 349 yards on 5.2 YPC with four TDs, while adding 23 catches for three more TDs. Herbert has a duo of excellent WRs in Williams (31 catches on 15.2 YC with 6 TDs) and Allen, who has a team-high 34 catches (he has caught 403 passes the last four seasons!). TE Cook is solid, with 17 receptions and a 12.4 YPC average. LA's defensive numbers don't look too bad on paper (23.2 PPG allowed ranks 12th on 371.8 YPG that ranks 189th) but I'm not sold. The Chargers D will have to try to slow down former MVP Lamar Jackson, who has completed 67.1% and thrown for almost as many yards as Herbert (1,519). He has an 8-3 TD/INT ratio plus adds a dimension no other QB can. He's run for 341 yards on 6.1 YPC with four TDs. Despite losing Dobbins and Edwards before the start of the season, Baltimore is still averaging 148.8 YPG (4th). TE Andrews leads the team with 29 catches (13.8 YPC / 2 TDs) and WR Brown has 28 (16.1 YPC and 5 TDs). Fellow WR Watkins (18 catches / 13.8 YPC / 2 TDs) did not practice on Wednesday, after leaving in the first half of Monday's game due to a thigh injury. The Baltimore D is not the dominant unit of years past but ranks 11th (not bad), allowing 23.4 PPG. and did not return. No doubt that the Chargers are greatly improved and that Brandon Staley looks like a quality NFL head coach but it's not exactly John Harbaugh's 'first rodeo.' The Ravens 'gave away' their Week 1 game at Las Vegas (lost in OT to the Raiders) but Baltimore has won four in a row since, including wins over AFC West teams the Chiefs and Broncos. While the Chargers were winning a 47-42 shootout with the Browns last Sunday, Jackson led the Ravens back from a 25-9 deficit against the Colts by directing two, 4th-quarter TD drives of 78 and 75 yards, converting BOTH two-point conversions. Jackson then led the Ravens on a 68-yard TD drive to win 31-25 in OT. I'm taking not only Jackson over Herbert but more importantly, Harbaugh over Staley. The Ravens are 20-6 SU at home under Jackson and at this price, a win VERY likely will earn a cover! Good luck...Larry |
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10-17-21 | Chiefs v. Washington Football Team +7 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -112 | 24 h 56 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Was FB Team at 1:00 ET. The KC Chiefs have won the AFC West each of the last FIVE seasons but here in Week 6, find themselves 2-3 and in last-place in the division they've recently dominated. Both the Broncos and Raiders are 3-2, while the Chargers sit atop the division at 4-1. KC is off a humbling 38-20 home loss to the Bills last Sunday night and will visit Washington on Sunday. Washington won the NFC East last season with a 7-9 record but here in 2021, the team will need to do MUCH better than that to keep pace with the Cowboys, who are 4-1 and their ATS record of 5-0 seems to prove this year's Dallas team is no fluke. |
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10-16-21 | UCLA v. Washington -1.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 54 m | Show |
My 9* Pac 12 Game of the Week is on Washington at 8:30 ET. Chip Kelly was a coaching 'genius' at Oregon from 2009-12, going 46-7 and finishing 3, 4 and 2 in the AP's final poll his last three seasons. He then moved on to conquer the NFL but in three seasons with the Eagles and one with the 49ers, went 28-35 (move over Bill Belichick). He was then hired at UCLA and went 3-9, 4-8 and 3-4 from 2018-20. UCLA opened with a 44-10 win over Hawaii and kept the momentum rolling in Week 2 with a 38-27 victory over then-No. 16 LSU. The Bruins then took a step back in a 40-37 loss to Fresno State, before beating Stanford 34-24 on road. UCLA then lost to Arizona State 42-23, before last week's 34-16 win over Arizona. |
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10-16-21 | Colorado State v. New Mexico +11 | Top | 36-7 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* MWC "Best of the Best" is on New Mexico at 7:00 ET. Steve Addazio is in his second season at Fort Collins, after leading Boston College to six bowls in seven seasons. The problem. BC never won more than SEVEN games in any season! CSU played just four games last year (1-3) and began the 2021 season with two home losses (42-23 to South Dakota State and then 24-21 to Vanderbilt), before winning 22-6 at Toledo. CSU led No. 5 Iowa 14-7 at the half back on Sep 25 but scored zero points in the second half for a 24-14. Was that a 'good' loss? Maybe but the Rams had just 12 FDs and 250 yards. CSU doesn't need good losses, it needs wins. The Rams did take care of San Jose St rather easily 32-14, and will head to Albuquerque at 2-3 Saturday to take on the 2-4 Lobos. However, the days of Sonny Lubick, who led them to nine bowls in a 15-year span (from 1993-2007) seem like 50 years ago, not half that! |
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10-16-21 | Pittsburgh v. Virginia Tech +5 | Top | 28-7 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 24 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Va Tech at 3:30 ET. 4-1 Pittsburgh will visit Blacksburg to take on 3-2 Va Tech on Saturday. The Coastal Division's representative in the Atlantic Coast Conference title game may come closer to being decided based on the outcome of this game. The Panthers and Hokies each enter with a 1-0 conference record and with FOUR of the other five teams in the division having at least two losses (the only one that doesn't is 0-1 Miami), the winner of Saturday's game will have the inside track toward an appearance in the conference title game. |
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10-16-21 | Michigan State v. Indiana +5 | Top | 20-15 | Push | 0 | 76 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Indiana at 12:00 ET. The "Mel Tucker Era" began in 2020 with the Spartans going 2-5. Michigan State entered the season as an afterthought but after a 6-0 start, the Spartans are now one of FIVE Big Ten teams in the AP's top-10. Michigan St checks in at No. 10 but the question for some (me?) is, are the Spartans really a top-10 team? Michigan State has been one of the biggest surprises in the Big Ten season, as the Spartans were picked to finish as low as last in the Big Ten East in some national publications. Meanwhile, the Indiana Hoosiers are one of the Big Ten's most disappointing teams. Tom Allen made a HUGE difference to the football program, as after back-to-back 5-7 (2-7 in Big Ten play) seasons in 2007 and 2018, he led the Hoosiers to back-to-back bowl games. Indiana went 8-5 in 2019 and 6-2 in 2020's pandemic-shortened season. The Hoosiers were 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in Big Ten play but then lost to a 4-5 Ole Miss team 26-20 (as a 9 1/2-point favorite) in the Outback Bowl. Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr was back healthy for the opening of the 2021 season, after missing the Hoosiers' last two games of 2020 because of a torn ACL in his right knee. He had 14 TDPs and just four INTs last season and let me point out that Indiana is 10-2 the last two seasons when Penix starts at QB and 4-5 when other QBs start. However, Indiana is just 2-3, including 0-2 in Big Ten in which the Hoosiers have yet to score a TD.
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10-16-21 | Rutgers v. Northwestern +2.5 | Top | 7-21 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on Northwestern at 12:00 ET. Rutgers and Northwestern have each failed to win a Big Ten game in 2021, as Rutgers visits Evanston for a game with Northwestern. Rutgers (3-3, 0-3 Big 10) currently sits at the bottom of the Big Ten East, while Northwestern (2-3, 0-2) is last in the West Division. Rutgers opened with three non-conference wins but has then been outscored 103-39 in losses to now-No. 10 Michigan State, No. 6 Ohio State and No. 8 Michigan. Northwestern has won two of three non-conference games but was crushed in its season opener 38-21 at home by Michigan St and then on Oct 2, suffered a 56-7 loss at Nebraska (second-largest margin of defeat under coach Pat Fitzgerald). Northwestern has been outscored 94-28 in its two conference games. To add insult to injury last week vs Michigan St, leading receiver Bo Melton (24 catches / 2 TDs) did not play due to a shoulder injury, and Aron Cruickshank, whose 244 receiving yards are second on the team, exited in the second half with a shoulder injury. QB Vedral has completed 63.9% for 1,122 yards with six TDs and three INTs. He's also the team's second-leading rusher, with RB Pacheco checking in with 314 yards but a YPC average of only 3.8. Rutgers runs for 141.8YPG (85th) on 3.5 YPC. The defense is allowing 22.8 PPG (51) which is pretty good considering Rutgers has played THREE teams currently in the AP's top-10. Northwestern allowed 427 rushing yards and 28 first downs at Nebraska, so the defense will be glad to see a mediocre Rutgers rushing attack. QB Hunter Johnson has 424 passing yards, four touchdowns, and four interceptions, but has been replaced by Ryan Hlinski. He made a decent jump in his second start, as the South Carolina transfer completed 25 of 39 passes against Nebraska for 256 yards and his first touchdown this season. Hilinski had 88 yards in the win over Ohio the previous week. Northwestern's best offensive player of Evan Hull, who has run for 509 yards on 7.3 yPC with four TDs. Fitzgerald's teams have always been known for playing excellent defense but the 2021 team allows 27.2 PPG (80th) on 451.6 PPG (113th). Since joining the Big Ten in 2014, Rutgers has played in every stadium in the conference, except one. That ends Saturday when the Scarlet Knights visit Ryan Field. However, I believe Northwestern has some edges in this game, one being having had last weekend off after getting humbled in Lincoln. Northwestern was 4-0 SU at home last season and is 2-1 here in 2021 plus Fitzgerald is going to see some old friends (and get some much-needed support) when Northwestern honors the 1995 and 1996 Big Ten championship teams. The Wildcats' coach was a star linebacker back then. The 1995 team went on a fairytale run to the Rose Bowl and ended a string of 23 losing seasons. Any points are a bonus. Good luck...Larry |
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10-15-21 | San Diego State v. San Jose State +9.5 | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 78 h 10 m | Show |
My 9* Friday Night Lights play is on San Jose St at 10:30 ET. Brady Hoke coached SD State in 2009 and 2010, leading the Aztecs to a 9-4 season in 2010, including a Poinsettia Bowl win over Navy. He left for Michigan but after an 11-2 season in 2011, things fell apart quickly. He was fired after four seasons, going 6-10 in the Big Ten his last two seasons. He would wind up back at SD State as an assistant under Rocky Long and took over for Long when he retired after the 2019 season. Hoke's first season back was 2020's COVID season and the Aztecs went just 4-4, ending a run of 10 straight bowl appearances that had started with Hoke's 2010 team. SD State was expected to contend for the MWC title in 2021 but the team's 5-0 start (entered top-25 two weeks ag0) is somewhat of a surprise. The Aztecs will play on the road the next two weeks, at San Jose St this Friday and at Air Force on Oct 23. San Jose St shocked almost all by going 7-0 SU and ATS to win the MWC in 2020, beating Boise St in the championship game, 34-20 (as a 7-point underdog). However, the Spartans then lost (as a 9-point favorite) 34-13 to Ball St in the Arizona Bowl. Still, with 19 returning starters, Brent Brennan's team entered the current season with high expectations. SJSU opened the season with a 45-14 win over Southern Utah, but then fell 30-7 to USC in Week 2. The Spartans bounced back with a 17-13 victory over Hawaii, before falling 23-3 to Western Michigan. A 37-31 win over New Mexico State followed but last Saturday, the Spartans fell behind early at Colorado St and was never really in the game in a 32-14 loss. SD St is led offensively by a running game that averages 241.4 YPG (13th) on 5.3 YPC. Greg Bell has 520 yards rushing (5.5 YPC and five TDs). Both Brookshire (47.4% with 2 TDs and 1 INT) and Johnson (53.7% with 2 TDs and 1 INT) have played at QB. Neither has been effective, as SD St averages 128.8 YPG passing to rank 125th in the nation. The team's leading receiver (Bellinger) has seven catches, although he is averaging 23.3 YPC. Running the ball and a stout defense has been the key for SD State, with the Aztecs allowing 16.6 PPG (16th) on 270.4 YPG (6th). Spartans QB Starkel played very well in 2020 (17 TDs / 7 INTs) but has flopped in 2021 (50.4% with 6 TDs and 5 INTs). Sophomore Nick Nash replaced him against New Mexico St and helped lead the Spartans to the win, completing 15 of 18 for 193 yards with three TDs (0 INTs). He was just 11 of 22 for 154 yards vs CSU but did have two TD passes (one INT). He looks like the best choice now. RB Tyler Nevens ran for 515 yards on 7.8 YPC in eight games last season and has 406 on 5.5 YPC after six games in 2020. The San Jose St defense is allowing 23.8 PPG on 369.5 PPG (rank 63rd in each category). I believe that SD St is getting a little too much credit here and as noted above, has a 'testing' two-game stretch in which the Aztecs will have to be cautious to not get caught "looking ahead" to their game at Air Force next weekend (5-1 as of this writing). Sure SD State is the better defensive team but I will note that the Spartans did force CSU into settling for SIX field goals last weekend. This is just SD State's SECOND road game this season, winning 38-14 at Arizona. FYI...The Wildcats are 0-5 in 2021 and are currently on a 17-game losing streak! Maybe not a SU win but the TD or more in points sure looks 'juicy!' Good luck...Larry |
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10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles +7 | Top | 28-22 | Win | 100 | 37 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Game of the Week is on the Phi Eagles at 8:20 ET. Tom Brady led the Bucs to his SEVENTH and Tampa Bay's second Super Bowl title in the 2020 season. What's more, the Bucs returned all 22 starters from that team for the 2021 season. The 44-year-old QB is like the "Energizer Bunny," as he is still accomplishing new feats. Brady is fresh off a performance against the Miami Dolphins in which he passed for 411 yards and five TDs during a 45-17 victory. It marked the first time the 22-year veteran passed for 400 yards and five TDs in the same game. The 4-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the 2-3 Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday night. The Eagles opened with a 32-6 road win against Atlanta in Week 1 but didn't win again until Week 5, when they won 21-18 in Carolina. |
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10-10-21 | Bills v. Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 38-20 | Loss | -120 | 129 h 46 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic (AFC Champ Game Rematch) is on the KC Chiefs at 8:20 ET. The 3-1 Buffalo Bills visit the 2-2 Kansas City Chiefs for Sunday Night Football in what will be a rematch of last season's AFC Championship Game. Buffalo led 9-0 after the first quarter in that one but KC pulled away for a 38-24 win. The Bills stumbled in Week 1 at home vs the Steelers, getting outscored in the 4th quarter 16-7 in a loss. However, Buffalo won 35-0 (at Miami), then 43-10 and 40-0 in home games against Washington and Houston, respectively. As for the Chiefs, they trailed most of the way in Week 1 at home vs Cleveland, before winning 33-29. KC then lost 36-35 at Baltimore (SNF) and 30-24 at home to the Chargers. Last week's 42-30 win at Philly prevented Patrick Mahomes from losing a third straight game for the first in his career plus also ended an 0-10-1 ATS regular season losing run by the Chiefs!
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10-10-21 | Bears v. Raiders -5.5 | Top | 20-9 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the LV Raiders at 4:05 ET, The Chicago Bears beat the Detroit Lions 24-14 at home in Week 4, evening their record at 2-2. Rookie Justin Fields got the start at QB for the injured Dalton and he looked better than his previous game (11 of 17 for 209 yards with no TDs and one INT) but most feel he's NOT ready for primetime. Chicago's running game produced 188 yards and accounted for all three TDs. The Bears visit Las Vegas on Sunday to take on the Raiders, who lost for the first time in Week 4's MNF contest 28-14 to the Chargers. Las Vegas beat Baltimore at home in an OT thriller in Week 1, then it pulled away for a 26-17 victory at Pittsburgh, before securing a second OT victory at home over Miami, 31-28. That marked the Raiders 1st 3-0 start since 2002. However, the Raiders fell behind the Chargers 21-0 last Monday and lost 28-14. As noted above, no one is quite sure about Fields' viability as a starting QB. RB Montgomery ran for 106 yards and two TDs in the win over the Lions and has 309 yards on the season (4.5 YPC / 3 TDs). Robinson caught 102 passes last season and 98 in 2019 but is off to a slower start in 2021 with 13 catches. Mooney caught 61 passes as a rookie and has 17 this year. A quality QB would help. The Chicago defense is solid, allowing 22.8 PPG (10th) on 350.0 YPG (12th). Carr was outplayed by Herbert on MNF but is completing 64.1% for 1,399 yards with 8 TDs and 3 INTs on the season. The problem for the Las Vegas offense is that RB Jacobs has not been healthy. He returned Monday night and had just 40 yards on 13 carries. He's coming off seasons of 1,065 and 1,150 yards. The Raiders are averaging just 80.5 PPG (27th), which is about 40 yards less per game than the last two seasons. TE Waller (24 catches) is "big time" plus Carr has three WRs that make contributions. Renfro leads with 22 catches, Ruggs has 14 while averaging 21.2 YPC and Edwards has only 11 catches but averages 19.5 YPC. The Las Vegas defense is no better than mediocre, allowing 25.0 PPG on 36.1 YPG (both ranks 19th). Excellent bounce-back spot for Las Vegas, who sits in a three-way tie atop the AFC West with the Broncos and Chargers. Meanwhile, it's hard to ignore that Chicago is 0-2 on the road, having scored just 20 points, while allowing 60 points. Lay it with the Ray-Dahs. Good luck...Larry |
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10-10-21 | Saints -1 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 33-22 | Win | 100 | 121 h 21 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas insider is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET. Drew Brees finally retired after a Hall of Fame career with the New Orleans. Brees led the Saints to their lone Super Bowl title (after the 2009 season) and even though his arm strength had noticeably dropped off, he still led New Orleans to first-place finishes in the NFC South in each of his final four seasons (winning 11, 13 , 13 and 12 games). The Saints opened the season with a 38-3 win over Green Bay in Week 1 (moved to Jacksonville because of Hurricane Ida), handing Aaron Rodgers his worst loss as a pro. New Orleans then lost 26-17 at Carolina and won 28-13 at New England, before losing its delayed home opener last Sunday, 27-21 to the Giants in OT. The Saints are back on the road in Week 5, playing at 2-2 Washington. Washington won the NFC 'Least' in 2020 with a 7-9 record but the Football Team will have to do better than that here in 2021, as 3-1 Dallas looks pretty good. In truth, Washington is lucky NOT to be 1-3, as Heinicke rallied them with two late TD passes, the game-winner coming with about 30 seconds to go was honestly, a 'miracle.' Let me add that the team's first win against the Giants, came when the Giants committed an incredibly stupid offsides penalty on a FG attempt that missed, with Washington winning when it got a second-chance reprieve. The New Orleans passing offense 'left town' with Brees, as while Winston is completing 64.0% with eight TDs and just two INTs (106.4 QB rating), Washington ranks 31st of 32 NFL teams with 144.0 YPG game passing. All-everything RB Alvin Kamara has not looked anything like the player who ran for 932 yards (5.0 YPC / 16 TDs) and caught 83 passes for another five TDs in 2020. However, the Saints D has played well, allowing 17.3 PPG (5th) on 349.3 YPG (11th). The QB from Old Dominion, Taylor Heinicke, has proven he belongs in the NFL, He's completing 69.5% for 960 yards with nine TDs and just three INTs (QB rating of 105.9). However, he gets little help from a running game averaging 103.3 YPG (19th). Washington's defense carried the team to the divisional title and a playoff game last season but this year's unit is GREATLY underachieving. Washington allowed just 304.6 YPG (2nd) in 2020 but has allowed 417.5 YPG (29th) after four games of 2021. What's more, after allowing 20.6 PPG last season, Washington is allowing right at 10 PPG more here in 2021 (30.5 PPG to rank 30th). The Saints are down a notch but are still more than capable. The Saints enter on an impressive 16-7 ATS run as a road favorite and we are getting a bargain here (imagine what the line would be if Washington was 0-4?). Expect New Orleans to treat this as a HUGE game, as the Bucs and Panthers have both opened 3-1 and the Saints catch their bye next weekend, after paying FOUR of their first five away from home. Good luck...Larry |
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10-10-21 | Packers v. Bengals +3 | Top | 25-22 | Push | 0 | 60 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* Oct Game of the Month is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET. The Packers and Bengals in a showdown of two 3-1 teams in Week 5 seems like a misprint! However, that's EXACTLY what we have on Sunday. Green Bay got blasted 38-3 in Week 1 by the Saints (game played in Jacksonville due to Hurricane Ida), as Aaron Rodgers suffered the worst loss of his professional career (was just 15 of 28 for 133 yards with two INTs!). However, the Packers have responded with three consecutive wins and covers, with Rodgers completing 67.7% for 764 yards with 8 TDs and zero INTs in 96 attempts. As for the Bengals, second-year QB Joe Burrow has led the Bengals to a 3-1 start as well, completing 72.9% for 988 yards with 9 TDs and 4 INTs. The Packers have rebounded from a season-opening loss to New Orleans by remaining aggressive and confident on both sides of the ball. Rodgers is back to being his 'old self' plus RB Jones is coming around. He has 206 rushing yards (2 TDs) plus 13 catches with 3 TDs. WR Adams has 31 catches and fellow WR Cobb is back healthy. He caught just four passes in his first three games but had five receptions and two TDs in last Sunday's win. The Green Bay defense has come back with a vengeance after the New Orleans' debacle and is allowing a modest 311.5 YPG (6th). The Packers are allowing 25.0 PPG but just 20.7 PPG since that Week 1 loss. Burrow is finally getting some help from his running game, as Joe Mixon has begun fulfilling his potential by running for 353 yards on 4.3 YPC with two TDs. WR Boyd leads with 23 receptions but Chase is the team's "big play" receiver, averaging 17.5 YPC with four TDs on his 17 grabs. MAJOR improvement is being shown by Cincy's D, as after allowing 26.6, 26.3 and 28.4 PPG the previous three seasons, the Bengals stop unit is actually stopping opponents. Cincinnati enters allowing 323.0 YPG (7th) and 18.8 PPG (8th). Cincy's schedule up until now hasn't been much of a 'tester' but here's an opportunity to prove that the team is a legitimate division and playoff contender against a quality opponent. Is it possible that Green Bay is 'fat' and happy having reeled off three consecutive victories? Could be? The Packers also travel to Chicago next week to renew the NFL's oldest-running rivalry. Cincinnati leads the all-time series 7-6 and boasts victories in THREE of the last four meetings, as the Bengals are 2-0 against the Packers at Paul Brown Stadium in that stretch. Does it matter that the underdog is 4-0 ATS the last four in this series? It certainly doesn't hurt! The Bengals are in a fantastic ambush spot as a home ‘dog. 'Bow Wow!' Good luck...Larry |
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10-09-21 | Utah +3 v. USC | Top | 42-26 | Win | 100 | 52 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* Pac-12 Game of the Year is on Utah at 8:00 ET. A pair of teams with disappointing starts to their respective 2021 seasons square off in the LA Coliseum on Saturday night, as the 2-2 Utah Utes visit the 3-2 USC Trojans. Utah was ranked 24th in the AP's preseason poll and USC was ranked 15th. However, Utah has lost to both of the quality teams it has played in the early going, falling 26-17 at BYU (snapped a nine-game winning streak over its longtime rival) and 33-31 in OT at San Diego St. Yes, BYU is ranked 10th and SD State just moved into the rankings at No. 25 this past Sunday but there is NO overlooking that the Utes check in at 0-4 ATS. USC comes in 3-2 after last weekend's 37-14 victory at Colorado as a 9.5 point favorite. However, the Trojans have surely had their ups and downs in 2021. They lost 42-28 at home vs Stanford as an 18-point favorite, a loss that cost Clay Helton his job. Taking over is Donte Williams (first-ever head coaching job) and he lost his second game, 45-27 against Oregon St, again at home and again as a sizeable favorite of 10 points. Something tells me Williams will be 'looking over his shoulder' all season, as rumors abound that USC is looking for a "big name" head coach. Can you say Urban Meyer. Utah had hoped for big things from Charlie Brewer, who came from Baylor where he had 65 TDs and 28 INTs. However, he was benched during the SD St loss, with Cameron Rising going 19 of 32 for 153 yards with three TDs and no INTs. Rising started in the 24-13 win over Washington St but was just a modest 13 of 23 for 137 yards. However, he didn't throw a TD pass and he's thrown 55 passes without an INT the last two games. He's the better choice these days and the Utah defense is solid, allowing 302.3 YPG (25th) and 22.3 PPG. Utah's defensive strength is its pass D, allowing 163.5 YPG to rank 13th. USC is no longer called "Tailback U," as the Trojans are now a passing team. That's the case again in 2021 with Kedon Slovis completing 64.6% for 1,118 yards but he has a modest seven TD passes with four INTs. WR London leads the nation with 48 catches, grabbing four TDs. RB Ingram is solid (359 yards on 5.8 YPC) but the team's average of 137.4 YPG on the ground ranks only 91st. The USC defense allows 24.4 PPG (70th) on 361.4 YPG (61st). Utah is in a very good spot here, having last week off and despite its 2-2 start, is 1-0 in Pac 12 play. USC has lost its last two home games (SU as big double-digit favorites), while allowing a combined 87 points! USC is off next weekend and then plays Notre Dame in one of the nation's biggest (if not THE biggest) intersectional rivalries. Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham has led Utah to 13 bowls in 15 years (10-3), before the school declined to play in a bowl last year (COVID). He squares off against a VERY inexperienced head coach plus brings a 12-2 ATS record as a road dog into this contest going back to 2014. Meanwhile, USC comes in 8-14 as a home favorite since 2017. I'm calling for the SU win but of course, take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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10-09-21 | LSU +3.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 13 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on LSU at 7:30 ET. Joe Burrow elevated Ed Orgeron to the status coaching 'genius' in 2019, leading LSU to one of CFB's best-ever single seasons. The 2019 Tigers would go 15-0 (11-4 ATS), outscoring opponents 48.4 PPG-to-21.9 PPG. However, LSU fell to 5-5 in COVID's 2020 season, while averaging 32.0 PPG and allowing 34.9 PPG. LSU opened the current season with a 38-27 loss at UCLA, before winning home games over McNeese ST (34-7) and Central Michigan (49-21). LSU picked up an impressive 28-25 win at Miss St on the final Saturday of September (lead 28-10 in the mid-4th quarter) but then blew a 13-point lead at home in a 24-19 loss to Auburn this past Saturday. The Tigers are now on the road this Saturday at Kentucky. How 'bout dem Wildcats! Kentucky held off then-No. 10 Florida last Saturday, winning 20-13 at home. It marked Kentucky's first home win over the Gators since 1986 and catapulted the Wildcats into the AP top-25 for the first time this year at No. 16. Kentucky has started 5-0 for just the third time in its last 35 years, with two of those perfect starts coming under head coach Mark Stoops. Stoops led Kentucky to a 5-0 start in 2018 and the Wildcats finished 10-3, including a 27-24 Citrus Bowl win over No. 13 Penn St. QB Max Johnson has thrown for 1,469 yards (62.45 completions / 16 TDs and 4 INTs) but gets almost NO help from an LS+U running game producing a pathetic 70.8 YPG (128th) on 2.4 YPC. Johnson has one of the nation's best WRs in Boutte, who has 30 receptions and an FBS-high nine TD grabs! The LSU defense is about average, allowing 23.0 PPG (59th) on 369.6 YPG (67th). However, it's quite an improvement over last year's unit which allowed 34.9 PPG on 492.0 YPG! Kentucky QB Will Levis completes 61.2% for 989 yards with eight TDs but also six INTs. The running game ranks 36th, averaging 191.0 YPG, led by Rodriguez (612 yards on 5.9 YPC with 4 TDs). However, it's the Kentucky defense that leads the way, allowing 16.8 PPG (21st) on 284.6 YPG (12th). That Wildcat D came up HUGE last Saturday, as Florida had 1st and goal opportunities two times and failed to tie it up EIGHT in eight tries! Here's the 'dope.' The Kentucky offense left MUCH to be desired vs Florida, converting just one of nine third downs, gaining just 224 yards, as Levis completed just seven passes in 17 attempts for 87 yards. At 3-2, this is a HUGE game for LSU. These two haven’t met since 2014 and LSU has won SIX of the last seven meetings. LSU is 10-3 SU & ATS vs the SEC East while Kentucky is just 1-9 SU against SEC West foes, excluding Miss St (annual Egg Bowl opponent). Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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10-09-21 | TCU -1.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 52-31 | Win | 100 | 76 h 49 m | Show |
My 9* Big 12 Game of the Week is on TCU at 7:00 ET. 2-2 TCU takes on 4-1 Texas Tech Saturday in Lubbock. TCU head coach Garry Patterson is in his 21st season with the Horned Frogs and has accrued some legacy. He's led TCU to 16 bowls in his first 20 seasons (a 17th appearance was canceled in 2020) and he's posted 11 seasons of 10-plus wins. From 2008-11 (a four-year span), TCU went 47-5, including 13-0 in 2010. TCU had 12-1 seasons in 2009 and 2014. However, the team entered this season on a three-year run of just 18-17. Texas Tech's Matt Wells ins in his third season in Lubbock, after leading Utah St to bowls in five of his six seasons. However, the Red Raiders have gone 4-8 and 4-6 in his first two seasons. That's changed in 2021, as Tech has opened 4-1. The Horned Frogs opened 2-0 but then lost 42-34 to rival SMU on Sep 25 and followed with a hard-fought 32-27 last Saturday against Texas (note: TT lost 70-35 to Texas!). QB Max Duggan (63.2% for 899 yards with 8 TDs and 2 INTs plus 143 rushing yards and two TDs) leads a well-balanced offense. TCU is averaging 197.0 YPG rushing, led by Zach Evans (443 yards on 7.8 YPC with 3 TDs). The offense is averaging 35.0 PPG (33rd) but the defense is not a strength like in years past, allowing 27.3 PPG (85th) on 397.3 YPG (83rd). Texas Tech QB Tyler Shough will be out for several more weeks with a broken collarbone, so Henry Colombi, who has filled in the last two games, will again get the start. He entered in the 70-35 loss to Texas and passed for 324 yards with three TDs (one INT). He was 23 of 34 for 266 yards (0 TDs / 0 INTs) in last Saturday's 23-20 upset at West Va. Texas Tech's defense struggles much like TCU's (that 70 points vs Texas won't go away), allowing 30.8 PPG (102nd). Tech's 23-20 victory at West Virginia last week helped Texas Tech chase away the aftertaste of a 70-35 loss at Texas the week before, while TCU is in a different kind of mood after its comeback bid against the Longhorns fizzled in a 32-27 setback last week. "We can't feel sorry for ourselves," Max Duggan said. "Going in two weeks straight with a loss is going to suck, but nobody is going to feel bad for us. Texas Tech isn't going to feel sorry for us." After their big road win in West Virginia, I think a bit of a letdown is in order here for the Red Raiders, while conversely, after back-to-back losses, this one absolutely "means more" to the hungry Horned Frogs. Note that TCU last lost THREE games in a row back in 2018, while Texas Tech is on a 1-6 ATS slide off an ATS win. This showdown is dubbed "The Battle for the Saddle" and expect for TCU to 'ride away' with it on Saturday. Good luck...Larry |
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10-09-21 | Michigan State v. Rutgers +6 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -111 | 47 h 14 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Rutgers at 12:00 ET. The "Mel Tucker Era" began in 2020 with the Spartans going 2-5. Michigan State entered the season as an afterthought but after a 5-0 start, the Spartans are now knocking at the door for a top-10 ranking (moved up to No. 11 in the AP's poll last Sunday). Michigan St visits Piscataway, NJ at "high noon" on Saturday, taking on 3-2 Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights' head coach is Greg Schiano, who is in his second stint with the school. Schiano led Rutgers to SIX bowls in a seven-year span (2005-2011), winning his last five bowls, before taking over the Tampa Bay Bucs in the NFL. He went 7-9 and 4-12 and THAT was THAT. He returned to Rutgers in the COVID year of 2020 and went 3-6. The question looms, is Mich St really a top-10 team? QB Payton Thorne is completing 63.1% for 1,236 yards with 11 TDs and just one INT. the running game is averaging 210.8 YPG (24th), led by the nation's leading rusher Kenneth Walker III, who has 680 yards on 6.8 YPC (136.0 YPG). He's got nine TDs, eight rushing. WR Jayden Reed has 20 catches for 468 yards (23.1 YPC) and five TDs. Reed leads all major-college players in all-purpose yardage, with 176.6 per game. He has caught at least one TD pass in the last four games and he's returned a punt for a touchdown in two consecutive games. Throw in a Michigan St defense that's allowing just 20.6 PPG (39th) and maybe the answer is yes, the Spartans are that good! That said, beware of Rutgers. If one just looks at last Saturday's 52-13 loss last Saturday at Ohio St, you could be missing something. Rutgers' defense was shredded for 541 yards and failed to produce a takeaway for the third straight game. Ohio State led 45-6 at halftime. Yes, Rutgers can't play with Ohio St (Buckeyes have scored at least 49 points in EIGHT straight wins) but look at the team's first four games. Rutgers opened 3-0 and then played Michigan (5-0 start and has NEVER trailed all season) even in a 20-13 loss. The defense held Michigan to just 275 total yards, including 112 rushing yards (Wolverines have averaged 255.0 YPG on the ground for the season). Rutgers doesn't have the skill position players on offense that Michigan St does but I believe Rutgers has the BETTER defense. A closer look at the Spartans' D shows that while it has allowed 20.3 PPG, it has also allowed 428.8 YPG (101st). Maybe Rutgers' QB Vedral (66.7% for 914 yards) with six TDs and three INTs (all three picks came vs Ohio St!) plus RB Pacheco (267 yards on 3.8 YPC with 3 TDs) can have success here at home. Getting back to the Rutgers' D, despite the horrific effort vs Ohio St, Rutgers is still allowing 21.2 PPG (42nd) on 320.2 YPG (40th). Prior to the Ohio St contest and INCLUDING the game vs Michigan, Rutgers had allowed 13.5 PPG on 265.0 YPG. Referring to the Ohio St game, Greg Schiano said he wants that loss to sting. "I hope we can't put it behind us that quickly," he said. "That wasn't a great outing, so we have to get to work and that's what we did. Hopefully, those kinds of things fuel you a little bit and get you cranking here early in the week." The Scarlet Knights took the Wolverines "down to the wire," and this is exactly the same sort of competitive affair that I expect to see from Rutgers here as well, after the back-to-back losses. Upset Alert? I think so but of course, take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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10-07-21 | Rams -1 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 78 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* NFC West Game of the Week is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET. Matthew Stafford was traded to the Rams in a package involving Jared Goff and made his Rams debut during Sunday Night Football against the Chicago Bears. He threw for 321 yards and three TDs with a career-best 156.1 passer rating as the Rams won 34–14. In Week 2 against the Indianapolis Colts, Stafford led the Rams to a 27-24 win while throwing for 278 yards, two TDs, and one interception. Then, against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Stafford threw for 343 yards and four TDs as the Rams won 34–24. Stafford's and the Rams' luck ran out last Sunday, falling 37-20 at Arizona. Note, the Cards are the NFL's lone 4-0 team. Fellow NFC West rival, the Seattle Seahawks, have been all over the map in the consistency department. Seattle opened with a 28-16 win at Indianapolis before back-to-back losses at home 33-30 to the Titans and on the road 30-17 at Minnesota. Seattle got a much-needed road win 28-21 in San Francisco last Sunday. Talking about QB play, Russell Wilson is completing 72.5% for 1,044 yards with nine TDs and not a single interception in 109 attempts, giving him a QB rating of 129.9. Stafford is completing 68.1% for 1,222 with 11 TDs and two INTs for a 117.8 rating. He is blessed with two vet WRs in Kupp (30 catches and five TDs) and Woods (15 catches with two TDs). Let me note that both Kupp and Woods have each caught 90 passes or more the last two seasons. TE Higbee (15 catches) is solid and second-year WR Jefferson has 13 catches, after catching just 19 all of last season. Wilson earned his 100th win Sunday (this is his 10th season) and also has two quality WRs in Locket and Metcalf. Both have caught 30 balls with three TDs apiece. RB Carson 232 yards on 4.3 YPC with three TDs gives Seattle a slight advantage in the running game. A HUGE problem has been Seattle's OL issues, which has allowed 11 sacks (Rams' D has 12 sacks). Both defenses have struggled but Seattle has the BIGGER issues! Seattle is last in total defense (444.5 YPG) and its pass D has made just one INT in 157 attempts, while allowing eight TD passes. It's hard to find a flaw in Wilson but Stafford has found a 'home' in LA under head coach Sean McVay and his numbers are very comparable to Wilson after four games. McVay is in his fifth season with the Rams, winning 10-plus games in THREE of his first four. McVay owns an excellent record on the road since 2017, going an impressive 22-11 SU. I had the Seahawks over San Francisco last Sunday but Thursday, my NFC West Game of the Week play is on the Rams! Good luck...Larry |
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10-04-21 | Raiders v. Chargers -3 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* MNF Rivalry Game of the Month is on the LA Chargers at 8:15 ET. The Chargers and Raiders were "original members" of the AFL back in 1960. The Chargers began in LA, spent most of their history in San Diego but recently find themselves back in "The City of Angels." The Raiders began in Oakland, 'escaped' to LA, returned to Oakland and now reside in "Sin City." The KC Chiefs have won the AFC West in each of the last FIVE seasons but currently reside in last-place at 2-2. Oakland leads the division at 3-0, the Broncos are 3-1 and the Chargers 2-1. The set-up is simple, the Raiders move to 4-0 with a win, while if the Chargers win, that will make it a three-way tie atop the division (Broncos, Chargers and Raiders would all be 3-1). However, a Chargers loss drops them into last-place at 2-2 with the Chiefs. Las Vegas beat Baltimore at home in an OT thriller in Week 1, then it pulled away for a 26-17 victory at Pittsburgh, before securing a second OT victory at home over Miami, 31-28. Los Angeles got to 2-1 with a 20-16 Week 1 win at Washington, before then falling 20-17 at home to Dallas in Week 2 (game-winning FG on the game's final play!), The Chargers were 'cooking' in Week 3 on the road and they left Kansas City with an impressive 30-24 victory. QB Derek Carr leads the NFL in passing yards while guiding the Las Vegas Raiders to the franchise's first 3-0 start since 2002. Carr has passed for over 4,000 in each of the last three seasons but he's on pace for a very special season in 2021. He's completing 64.7% for 1,203 yards with six TDs and two INTs (101.4 QB rating. He's got a terrific TE in Waller (20 catches) and two quality WRs in Ruggs (21.5 YPC) and Edwards (21.0 YPC). RB Jacobs has been hobbled with an ankle injury (questionable again here) and the running game isn't helping Carr very much (91.2 YPG to rank 24th). The Las Vegas defense has been average but one interesting aspect is that first-year Raiders defensive coordinator Gus Bradley ran the Chargers' defense last season, so he saw a lot of Justin Herbert on the practice field as well as in games. QB Herbert had a big 'freshman' season in 2020 and is completing 69.8% for 956 yards with six TDs and three INTs (Chargers rank 3rd in passing yards at 307.3 YPG). Like Carr, Herbert has quality 'targets' in WRs Williams (22 catches / 13.4 YPC and 4 TDs) and Allen (21 catches on 12.3 YPC) Note: Allen has 100-plus catches in THREE of the last four seasons, missing with 97 in the other year. RB Ekeler (166 yards on 4.7 YPC), is also a big part of the passing offense with 15 catches. The key matchup here is the LA pass D (201.7 YPG ranks 8th) vs Carr, as this will be the best pass D he has faced in 2021. The Chargers have the talent to challenge for the AFC West title and/or a wild card spot but NEED to start winning home games, as they are just 19-22 SU at home since returning to LA. I think the Raiders are absolutely primed for some regression here and I'm backing LA at this price. Good luck...Larry |
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10-03-21 | Bucs v. Patriots +7 | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 99 h 22 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic ('Brady Bowl') is on the NE Patriots at 8:20 ET. Tom Brady is returning to his NFL home of 20 seasons on Sunday night when the 2-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the 1-2 New England Patriots in Foxborough. Brady won six Super Bowl titles with the Patriots and head coach Bill Belichick, before capturing his seventh last season in his first season with the Buccaneers. While Brady was adding to his legacy, Belichick's Brady-less Patriots finished 7-9, just the team's second losing record since Belichick went 5-11 in his first season as the franchise's head coach (2000). It's not really original, but I've dubbed this game 'The Brady Bowl!'
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10-03-21 | Steelers +7 v. Packers | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -120 | 120 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* AFC/NFC Game of the Year is on the Pit Steelers at 4:25 ET. The Packers opened with a 38-3 loss to the Saints in Week 1, a contest moved to Jacksonville because of Hurricane Ida. The loss was Aaron Rodgers' worst as a pro, as he completed 15 of 28 passes for 133 yards with no TDs and two INTs (36.8 QB rating). However, Rodgers and the Packers have rebounded with a 35-17 home win over the Lions and last Sunday night, won 30-28 at San Francisco on a FG as time expired. The Steelers shocked the Bills in Week 1 at Buffalo, outscoring them 17-6 in the fourth-quarter for a 23-16 win. However, Pittsburgh has lost its last two games (BOTH a home!), 26-17 to the Raiders and 24-10 vs the Bengals.
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10-03-21 | Seahawks +3 v. 49ers | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 79 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* NFC West Game of the Week is on the Sea Seahawks at 4:05 ET. Full, detailed analysis Thursday afternoon by 3:00 ET. |
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10-03-21 | Colts v. Dolphins -1.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -114 | 113 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Mia Dolphins at 1:00 ET. The Indianapolis Colts went 11-5 in 2020 with Rivers at QB and 'scared' the Bills in the wild card round, losing 27-24 in Buffalo. However, with Rivers retired, the Colts have opened 0-3, the team's worst start in 10 years!. Indy will be in Miami to take on the Dolphins, who got outplayed by the Pats at New England in Week 1 but somehow managed to win 17-16. The Dolphins then got clobbered at home 35-0 by Buffalo, before losing just 31-28 in Las Vegas last Sunday to the Raiders (overtime FG with 0:00 on the clock!). Both teams are "on the ropes" as they collide in Hard Rock Stadium this Sunday. QB Carson Wentz does not look like Indy's 'answer' at QB, playing on two bum ankles with a struggling offensive line plus he has very little talent at the receiver positions. RB Jonathan Taylor, who finished so strong in the second half of the 2020 season, has 171 yards (4.1 YPC / 0 TDs) after three games. The Indy running game averages 103.0 YPG to rank 19th (OL woes don't help!). The defense is allowing 26.7 PPG (22nd). The Dolphins don't run the ball well either, averaging only 92.7 YPG (23rd) but Myles Gaskin gained 65 yards against the Raiders last Sunday and is averaging 5.1 YPC on the season (he was terrific in college at Washington!). Tua got hurt early in the Buffalo game but as I noted in taking Miami last week vs the Raiders, Jacoby Brissett isn't really a drop-off in production. With a full week to prepare, was 32-49 for a modest 215 yards but didn't throw an INT plus added 37 yards rushing with a TD. Most importantly, he drove the Colts 82 yards in under 3 1/2-minutes to a score and a two-point conversion that sent the game to OT. Also of note last Sunday for Miami was TE Gesicki's 10 catches and rookie WR Waddle's 12 (he has 22 thru three games!). Brissett will surely be motivated against his ex-team and while Miami was no match for Buffalo in Week 2 (Bills were coming off a Week 1 home upset to the Steelers), let's NOT forget that the Dolphins ended last season with ATS wins in their final five home games (4-1 SU, losing only to KC). It's safe to say that the Colts are NOT the Chiefs! Good luck...Larry |
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10-03-21 | Giants +7.5 v. Saints | Top | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 54 h 10 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the NY Giants at 1:00 ET. Daniel Jones is just looking for a break. He's played well in 2021, completing 65.4% for 782 yards and while he's thrown for just a modest two TD passes, he has not thrown an interception in 104 attempts. With RB Barkley still looking nothing like the player who topped 1,000-yards rushing in his first two years, Jones is also the team's leading rusher with 161 yards (7.0 YPC and two TDs). The bottom line? The 0-3 Giants are still trying to figure out how to win a game. They have lost their last two games on last-second field goals by Washington (30-29) and Atlanta (17-14). The 2-1 Saints have had a rollercoaster start to their first season without Drew Brees in what seems like two decades! The team's home opener against the Packers was moved to Jacksonville because of Hurricane Ida, but the Saints won 38-3, handing Aaron Rodgers his worst loss as a pro. Brees' replacement, Jameis Winston, threw five TD passes against Green Bay but threw for only 148 yards. The Saints lost 26-7 at Carolina in Week 2, with Winston throwing two INTs and no INTs plus with only 111 passing yards. In last Sunday's 28-13 win at New England, Winston threw two TDs without an interception but again, passed for only 128 yards. RB Kamara has been quiet so far as well but the defense has been excellent. New Orleans is holding opponents to 14.0 PPG (3rd) on 304.0 YPG (6th). Yes, this will be the Saints' first home game but covering a TD or more pointspread will NOT be easy. Who would ever think that Drew Brees' former team ranks 31st in total offense (234.0 YPG) and 1st in passing yards (113.7 YPG). Yes, the Giants have trouble finishing games but I will NOT ignore the fact that the Giants are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 as an away underdog. "Close isn't good enough," Giants coach Joe Judge said, adding that the last-second field goals didn't tell the whole story. However, close is good enough for me, Joe. 'Bow-Wow!' Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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10-02-21 | Liberty v. UAB -1.5 | Top | 36-12 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 5 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on UAB at 7:00 ET. Hugh Freeze was 10-2 in a one-year stint at Arkansas St, which he used as a springboard to get the job at Ole miss. However, his stay ended amid recruiting and academic violations. He resurfaced at Liberty in 2019 and led the Flames to a 8-5 season, including a Cure Bowl win. Then came last year's 10-1 team that capped its season with a second straight Cure Bowl win over an 11-0 Coastal Carolina team. Liberty opened the current season 3-0 and were on the cusp of breaking into the AP top-25 but lost 24-21 at Syracuse last Saturday. The Orange kicked the game-winning 35-yard field goal with no time on the clock, using a late turnover to set up the game-winner.
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10-02-21 | Army v. Ball State +7.5 | Top | 16-28 | Win | 100 | 58 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* Non-Conference Game of the Month is on Ball State at 5:00 ET. Army, under head coach Jeff Monken, has been 'bowling' in FOUR of the last five seasons (won 10 games in 2017, 11 in 2018 and went 9-3 in last year's pandemic-shortened season, after losing 24-21 to West Va in the Liberty Bowl (covered at plus-7). The Black Knights have opened 4-0 here in 2021 but I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that their four opponents are a combined 3-13 (.188) SU to open the current season. Ball St has opened 1-3, which is somewhat of a head-scratcher, as the Cardinals are coming off a 7-1 season in 2020. The Cardinals lost their delayed season-opener but then won FIVE in a row to reach the MAC title games against Buffalo which had gone 5-0, while averaging 43.4 PPG. However, as a 13-point underdog, Ball St beat Buffalo 38-28 and then went on to beat a then-7-0 San Jose St team (also 7-0 ATS) 34-13 in the Arizona Bowl. Entering this season, 10 starters returned on both offense and defense and I read more than a few places that this year's team was shaping up as head coach Mike Neu's best (this marks his 6th season at Muncie). It's no surprise that Army comes in averaging 344.5 YPG rushing (No. 2 in the nation, averaging 5.2 YPC with 17 rushing TDs. QB Anderson is the team's leading rusher 431 yards on 7.4 YPC and 5 TDs) with Robinson being the most productive RB (215 yards on 11.3 YPC). Anderson has attempted just 15 passes with three TDs and zero INTs (for only 187 yards). The best thing Army's defense has is that the offense controls the clock by 'eating' yards and time off the clock, while 'coughing up' just one turnover. The Army D checks in allowing 19.0 PPG (38th) on 277.8 YPG (16th). The 'trick' for Ball St will be to move the ball and keep Army from dominating the game with its rushing attack. Easier said than done but I think Ball St is capable of a breakout performance in this one. QB Plitt is completing 61.2% but for only 614 yards in four games (two TDs / three INTs). That compares to him throwing for 2,164 yards with 17 TDs and six INTs in just eight games last season. In 2019, he threw for 2,918 yards with 24 TDs and seven INTs. He's WAAY better than he's looked so far. I noted Army's recent success up top but being favored on the road is not something Army has seen much of. The Black Knights have been a road favorite just SEVEN times in the last five seasons, going 4-3 SU and ATS. Army has next weekend off and then plays three straight important opponents, Wisconsin, Wake Forest (off to a 4-0 start) and Air Force (3-1 start). Upset alert? Just maybe but be sure to take the points, remembering Army's opponents so far are a combined 3-13! Good luck...Larry |
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10-01-21 | BYU -7.5 v. Utah State | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 80 h 27 m | Show |
My 9* Friday Night Lights play is on BYU at 9:00 ET. BYU surprised all by going 11-1 (9-3 ATS) in 2020 (finished 11th in the final coaches' poll) and are making a strong case that the Cougars are going to be pretty good in 2021, as well. Jaren Hall beat out Baylor Romney for the starting QB job and had BIG shoes to fill (Zach Wilson). Hall led the Cougars to a 3-0 start, passing for 561 yards (7 TDs / 2 INTs) plus ran for 166 yards (8.3 YPC). However, Hall took a hit with about a minute remaining in BYU's win over ASU and it was more serious than at first reported. Romney got the start last Saturday vs USF and threw for 305 yards and three TDs. At 4-0, BYU is now ranked 13th in the current AP poll. Utah St opened 3-0 (also 3-0 ATS), starting with three straight wins for the first time since 1978. QB Logan Bonner (959 passing yards / 7 TDs / 5 INTs) helps lead an offense averaging 533.3 YPG (10th), and is aided by a strong running game (213.5 YPG). However, the Aggies' defense is a liability, allowing 463.3 YPG (121st) and 29.8 PPG (101st). Whether it's Hall or Romney at QB, I like BYU and its defense, which is allowing 19.3 PPG. The BYU defense got overlooked last year as well, with Wilson leading an offense that averaged 43.5 PPG (Note: the Cougars' D allowed just 15.3 PPG in 2020). BYU is 16-4 SU vs Utah St since 1994 and when the Aggies 'stepped up in class' last week vs Boise St, the offense managed just THREE points, with Bonner completing only 11 of 25 for 173 yards with two INTs. Yes, Utah St is at home vs BYU (played at Boise St), but the Aggies are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 as a home dog. Cougars roll. Good luck...Larry |
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09-27-21 | Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 21-41 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the Phi Eagles at 8:15 ET. The Eagles opened with a 32-6 road win over Atlanta in Week 1 and then lost a 17-11 home game to the 49ers. As for the Cowboys, they lost 31-29 on a FG with two seconds left at Tampa Bay in 2021's first game and then beat the Chargers 20-17 in LA on a 56-yard FG on that game's final play. The two longtime rivals meet tonight in Dallas and with both at 1-1, the winner will take over 1st-place in the NFC 'Least,' as Washington has opened 1-2 and the NY Giants 0-3.
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09-26-21 | Packers +3 v. 49ers | Top | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic is on the GB Packers at 8:20 ET. The Packers were embarrassed 38-3 in Week 1 vs New Orleans (played in Jacksonville because of Hurricane Ida). Aaron Rodgers threw for just 133 yards with two INTs and zero TDs (QB rating of 36.8!) in what was the worst loss of his career. No one should have been surprised that Rodgers bounced back this past Monday Night, especially against the Lions. The Packers pulled away for a 35-17 win (won send-half 21-0) with Rodgers completing 22 of 27 for 255 yards with four TDs and zero INTs (QB rating of 145.8). The Packers travel to San Francisco Sunday night for a game vs the 2-0 49ers, who have opened with road wins of 41-33 at Detroit and 17-11 at Philadelphia. Jimmy G threw for 314 vs the Lions but only 189 vs the Eagles. The good news is that he has not thrown an INT in 55 attempts. RB Mitchell ran for 104 yards (5.5 YPC) against Detroit but then only 42 yards on 17 carries (2.5 YPC) vs Philly. San Francisco is averaging just 69.5 YPG on the ground (23.0 YPC) but expect Aaron Jones to "get going" and solve that 'problem. Jones is off back-to-back 1,000 rushing season (25 TDs) plus has caught 96 passes for five more TDs. Jones caught three short TD passes from Rodgers Monday night and added a fourth on the ground. Don't worry about the Green Bay running game. Turning to San Francisco's running game, "Houston (San Francisco), we have a problem!" After losing starter Raheem Mostert to a season-ending knee injury during its opener at Detroit, San Francisco then saw JaMycal Hasty go down with a high ankle sprain in last week's 17-11 win at Philadelphia. Hasty is likely to wind up on short-term injured reserve, which would require him to miss at least three weeks. What's more, rookies Elijah Mitchell (shoulder) and Trey Sermon (head) were also dinged up last week. Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Mitchell is day-to-day, while Sermon is in concussion protocol but could play Sunday. The 49ers have opened 2-0 but this game with Green Bay opens a brutal three-game stretch in which San Francisco hosts Seattle and then plays at Arizona. Who do you want at QB, Rodgers or Jimmy G? Green Bay is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 against teams with winning records, while San Francisco is a bank account draining 10-25-1 ATS in its last 36 games as a favorite. San Francisco returns home for the first time this year and I think, 'lays an egg!' Good luck...Larry |
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09-26-21 | Dolphins +4.5 v. Raiders | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 120 h 48 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Mia Dolphins at 4:05 ET. The RAY-DAHs are 2-0 SU & ATS, while the FISH are 1-1 SU/ATS. Las Vegas won Week 1's MNF game 33-27 over Baltimore in an OT thriller and then posted an impressive 26-17 road win at Pittsburgh in Week 2. Miami was outplayed at New England in Week 1 but came away with a 17-16 win but then returned home to host the Bills and got humbled in a 35-0 loss.
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09-26-21 | Saints v. Patriots -2.5 | Top | 28-13 | Loss | -118 | 105 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* "Signature" LEGEND Play is on the NE Patriots at 1:00 ET. Non-conference matchups are always interesting and this particular one in New England on Sunday definitely is. The Saints looked brilliant in their 38-3 win in Week 1 over the Packers in Jacksonville (moved because of the hurricane) but fell flat in their 26-7 Week 2 loss at Carolina. Welcome to Jameis Winston's 'world.' The 2013 Heisman winner completed 14 of 20 for a modest 148 yards vs Green Bay but threw five TD passes (QB rating was 130.8!). However, last Sunday in Carolina, Winston completed 11 of 21 for a puny 111 yards without a TD pass and two INTs (QB rating of 26.9!). The Tampa Bay ground game isn't much (109.5 YPG to rank 17th) plus the defense that was so brilliant against Aaron Rodgers in Week 1 (handed Rodgers his worst loss as a pro), showed NONE of that form against the legendary Sam Darnold, who led Carolina to 28 FDs and threw for 305 yards with two TDs.
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09-26-21 | Falcons v. Giants -2.5 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -120 | 68 h 3 m | Show |
My 9* 'Losers Night Out' play is on the NYG at 1:00 ET. The Falcons and Giants have both opened 0-2 and likely both believe this is a "game they can win!" The Falcons have lost 32-6 at home to the Eagles and then 48-25 at Tampa Bay. It doesn't take a degree from MIT to figure out that the Falcons are allowing 40.0 PPG, which is the most of any team. The Giants opened with a 27-13 home loss to the Broncos and then lost in Week 2's Thursday night game at Washington, 30-29. I'm sure ALL remember that the Giants offsides penalty at the end, gave Washington a second attempt at the game-winning FG and you know the rest. "Matty Ice" began 2021 having passed for 4,000-plus yards the previous 10 seasons but with WR Julio Jones now longer around and a running game that averages 89.5 YPG on 3.9 YPC, it figures to be a L-O-N-G season. Ryan is completing 69.1% but he's thrown just two TD passes and a QB rating of 76.4 (offense is averaging just 15.5 PPG, ranking 30th of 32 teams). One week after getting clobbered at home by the Eagles, the Falcons got smashed last weekend in Tampa, giving up 20 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. Giants QB Daniel Jones is a 'tough cookie.' He's completing 63.8% for 516 yards with two TDs and not a single INT in 70 attempts. He's run for 122 yards (8.1 YPC) and two TDs. Like Ryan, his running game hardly gives him any cover, as Barkley (36 attempts for 83 yards after two games, despite a 41-yard scamper vs Washington) seems to have gotten 'old' VERY quickly. Jones completed 22 of 32 for 249 yards with a TD pass, while also rushing for a career-high 95 yards against Washington and has scored a rushing TD in each of his first two games. Jones DESERVED to get a "W." Expect that "W' to come right here! OK, I realize that the Giants have lost more games than any team during the last FIVE years but the Falcons are a 'bottom-five' NFL team. Atlanta was 4-12 last season and now 0-2 to begin 2021. Let me also bring out the fact that the Falcons lost all three of their preseason games by a combined 49 points, despite trying to win! Did Atlanta really lead New England 28-3 in Super Bowl 51? The Falcons are the perfect opponent to get untracked against. It's time to open up the playbook in New York this weekend and get that 'W!" Here's a supporting trend. The Giants are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 vs clubs with losing records. Good luck...Larry |
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09-25-21 | Florida Atlantic v. Air Force -4 | Top | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 82 h 35 m | Show |
My 9* Group of 5 Game of the Week is on Air Force at 8:00 ET. FAU lost 35-14 at Florida to open the season ('backdoor' cover) but has rebounded with two wins, 38-6 over Ga Southern and 45-14 over Fordham. The Owls are back on the road this Saturday at Colorado Springs to take on Air Force. The Falcons rolled to back-to-back victories at home against Lafayette (35-14) and 23-3 at Navy to open the season. However, Air Force is in bounce-back mode here after falling 49-45 to Utah State last weekend when RB Calvin Tyler Jr. raced 61 yards for the go-ahead TD with just under four minutes to play to lift Utah State to the win over in the Mountain West Conference opener for both teams. FAU head coach Willie Taggert is in his second season with FAU and his career has mirrored a ping pong game. He starred at Western KY as a QB and began his coaching career at Western Ky in 2010. He's since made stops at USF (four years), Oregon (one year) and two years at FSU. The good news is he has a good QB in N’Kosi Perry has 871 passing yards with 7 TDs and zero INTs. He's a Miami-Fl transfer and seems to like being a BIG 'fish' in 'small' pound. However, the running game averages about 150 YPG less than that of Air Force. It's no surprise that Air Force averages 327.7 YPG (4th-best in the nation) on 5.2 YPC. QB Daniels showed some passing ability in the loss to Utah St (6 of 12 for 182 yards and one TD) plus is part of variety of players who contribute to the running game. Three players topped 100 yards rushing last Saturday (including Daniels) and on the season, WR Davis has run for 146 yards (10.7 YPC) with three rushing TDs. In stark contrast to Taggert, Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun is in his 15th season since following the legendary Fisher DeBerry (23 years). He led Air Force to 10 bowl games in his first 13 seasons, before the team went 2-2 in 2020's COVID-shortened season. Tough spot for FAU traveling cross-country to play in altitude, facing a strong home team coming off a late-game loss last Saturday. Air Force comes in 22-8 ATS in its last 30 non-conference games. Lay the points and EXPECT a decisive Air Force victory! Good luck...Larry |
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09-25-21 | Indiana -9 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 33-31 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Indiana at 8:00 ET. Indiana head coach Tom Allen has made a HUGE difference to the football program, as after back-to-back 5-7 (2-7 in Big Ten play) seasons in 2010 and 2018, he's led the Hoosiers to back-to-back bowl games. Indiana went 8-5 in 2019 and 6-2 in 2020's pandemic-shortened season. The Hoosiers were 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in Big Ten play but then lost to a 4-5 Ole Miss team 26-20 (as a 9 1/2-point favorite) in the Outback Bowl. Indiana opened the season ranked 17th (the school's first top-25 preseason appearance since 1968), However, Indiana hasn't gotten off to the start it wanted in 2021. That said, Indiana's two losses have come against No. 5 Iowa (34-6) and No. 8 Cincinnati (38-24). In between, the Hoosiers hammered Idaho 56-14.
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09-25-21 | Kansas State v. Oklahoma State -5.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 101 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* Big 12 Game of the Year is on Oklahoma St at 7:00 ET. Kansas St and Oklahoma St meet Saturday in Stillwater in the Big 12 opener for each school. Both a 3-0 with the Wildcats looking a little bit better than the Cowboys so far. Kansas State is off a 38-17 home win over Nevada last Saturday, after opening with a neutral site win over Stanford (24-7) and an unimpressive home win over Southern Illinois (31-23). Neither of Kansas St's two QBs, Skyar Thompson or Will Howard have looked overly impressive, However, RB Vaughn has run for 371 yards on 8.0 YPC with five TDs (he rushed for a career-best 218 yards in last Saturday). Oklahoma AB Spencer Sanders is well thought of but so far has underachieved. He missed the season opener and in two games back has been nothing special He was just 6 of 13 for 82 yards at Boise St but he has run for 102 yards in his two games, scoring a rushing TD at Boise. Mike Gundy starred at Stillwater as a QB and returned to coach his alma mater in 2005. He went just 4-7 (1-7 in Big 12 play) in his 'freshman year' but has led Okie St to 15 straight bowl appearances since then (10-5). His 2011 team was 12-1 (No. 3 finish in the AP poll) and he's produce five other season of 10-plus wins. Chris Klieman had the unenviable task of taking over for the legendary Bill Snyder and after an 8-5 first season, was 4-6 in 2020. This will be K-Sate's first true road game and Kieman has yet to beat the Cowboys, falling 26-13 in 2019 and 20-18 in Manhattan last year. Kansas St has home games vs Oklahoma (No. 4) and Iowa St (No. 14) up next. Could the visitors get caught looking ahead? Oklahoma St is 3-0 but hasn't yet but together an "A effort," as the Cowboys have won their first three games by a total of just 13 points. However, I see one coming. Going back to OSU's 'magical' season of 2011 (see above), the Cowboys are 50-15 SU at Boone Pickens Stadium and they are currently on a 13-5 ATS record in their last 18 against teams with winning records, Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-25-21 | Iowa State -6.5 v. Baylor | Top | 29-31 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 60 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Iowa St at 3:30 ET. Matt Campbell has led Iowa St to FOUR straight bowls. He led Iowa St to its first regular-season first-place finish of any sort in 119 years in 2020 and then the Cyclones were selected for the 2021 Fiesta Bowl, the first major-bowl appearance in school history, defeating Oregon 34-17 (BTW...It was CFB Game of the Year!). Iowa St finished ninth in both major bowls, the highest final ranking in school history. Iowa St was ranked 7th in the AP's preseason poll but was 'lucky to escape 16-10 over Northern Iowa in its opener and then lost its Cy-Hawk showdown vs Iowa (27-7), before routing a non-competitive UNLV team 48-3. Matt Rhule led Baylor to an 11-3 season in 2019 but then left for the NFL (Carolina Panthers). Getting his first-ever head coaching job was Dave Aranda, known as a defensive specialist. However, his first season went poorly in 2020's "Season of COVID," as the Bears would go just 2-7 (3-6). However, while 2-1 Iowa St is the ranked team in this matchup (14th), Baylor is the 3-0 team. Then again, the Bears' wins have come over Texas St, Texas Southern and 45-7 over Kansas, which is now a hard-to-believe 5-85 over its last 90 Big 12 games. Iowa St's two best offensive players are both off to slow starts. QB Brock Purdy (46-18 TD.INT ratio the last two seasons) may be completing 71.4% but he's thrown for a modest 625 yards with three TDs and three INTs. RB Breece Hall, who led the nation in rushing last season with 1,572 yards, while scoring 21 TDs, has run for just 238 yards (4.0 YPC) and four scores. However, the Iowa St defense has been terrific, allowing just 194.0 YPG (No. 1) and 13.3 PPG (14th) The Baylor defense is allowing 235.0 YPG (8th) and 11.3 PPG (10th) but as noted above, the competition lacks any quality opponents. The offense is averaging 46.7 PPG (5th) on 559.3 YPG (3rd) but again, consider the competition. QB Boharian has thrown for 664 yards with five TDs and zero INTs in 70 attempts. The Bears feature a strong running game (322.3 YPG ranks 5th) with Smith gaining 366 yards (7.8 YPC) and Ebner (317 yards (7.5 YPC). Baylor dominated this series going 7-2 from 2005-2016 but Iowa St has won THREE of the last four. Some may feel that Iowa St should NOT be this big of a favorite on the road but I disagree. This is Baylor's first real test of 2021 and I say its final grade by game's end will be an "F!" Lay it. Good luck...Larry |
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09-25-21 | LSU v. Mississippi State +2.5 | Top | 28-25 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Mississippi State at 12:00 ET). LSU opened the season ranked 16th in the AP's preseason poll, despite coming off a HUGELY disappointing 5-5 season in 2020. That came on the heels of LSU's magical 2019 season win in which the Tigers went 15-0 and won the national championship. The Tigers lost 38-27 at UCLA in their first game but LSU has bounced back with home wins of 34-7 over McNeese St and 49-21 over Central Michigan.
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09-24-21 | Middle Tennessee State +3.5 v. Charlotte | Top | 39-42 | Win | 100 | 80 h 53 m | Show |
My Friday Night Lights Play is a 9* on Middle Tenn St at 6:30 ET.
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09-19-21 | Chiefs v. Ravens +4 | Top | 35-36 | Win | 100 | 127 h 39 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic 'Best Bet' is on the Bal Ravens at 8:20 ET. Kansas City hosted the Browns in Week 1 (a rematch of a postseason matchup last year) and trailed from the opening kick-off until Mahomes led two fourth-quarter TD drives to give KC a 33-29 non-covering win. The Ravens opened Monday night in Las Vegas, where they lost a 33-27 OT thriller to the Raiders. Mahomes passed for 337 yards with three TD passes and no INTs and he's now a PERFECT 11-0 in September games with 35 passing TDs and zero interceptions (unreal!). However, the KC defense wasn't able to slow the Cleveland offense, as Mayfield passed for 321 yards plus allowed the Browns to run for 153 yards (5.9 YPC). The Ravens' RB corps has been decimated by injury but led by Lamar Jackson's 86 yards (7.2 YPC), Baltimore ran for 189 yards (5.6 YPC). Jackson completed 19 of 30 for 235 yards with one TD and no INTs. The Chiefs are the most talked about and analyzed team in the NFL. Even more so than the Bucs. Even the most casual NFL can tell you the strengths and the weaknesses and the cast of characters for Kansas City. The Chiefs beat the Ravens 34-20 on this field last season and deserve to be favored. However, let's return to the teams' Week 1 games. The Chiefs looked shaky for three-quarters last week, while the Ravens looked pretty good darned for three-quarters. However, KC won when the Browns 'woke up and remembered they were the Browns. As for the Ravens, they led 17-10 after three quarters, but an uncharacteristic meltdown in the fourth quarter saw them give up 17 points, before then losing by six more in OT. Bottom line? Kansas City likely shouldn't have won last week and Baltimore likely shouldn't have lost. A loss by Baltimore here drops them to 0-2 with the next two games on the road. Note that Baltimore has covered its last five regular season games as an underdog. Can you say SIX in a row. Good luck...Larry |
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09-19-21 | Cowboys v. Chargers -3 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -125 | 80 h 59 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the LA Chargers at 4:25 ET. The 1-0 Chargers welcome the 0-1 Cowboys to Los Angeles on Sunday, looking to start a season 2-0 for the first time since 2012. The Chargers escaped with a 20-16 road victory at Washington in Week 1, while the Cowboys lost a 31-29 heart-breaker at Tampa on Opening Night (on a last-second FG) and now look to avoid starting a season 0-2 for the first time since 2010. Dak Prescott was 42 of 58 for 403 yards, three touchdowns and an INT in the Cowboys Week 1 loss. Justin Herbert threw for 337 yards and a touchdown for the Chargers last weekend. Neither QB got any help from his running game, as Dallas ran for only 60 on 3.3 YPC (Elliott had just 33 yards) and Los Angeles ran for 90 yards on 3.1 YPC (Ekeler led with 57 yards). The big difference was on the defensive side of the ball. Dallas forced Tampa into four takeaways but still allowed 31 points on 431 yards. As for the Chargers' D, it held Washington to 16 points on only 259 yards. Prescott looked great in his first game back from a gruesome, season-ending leg injury last year. However, in the end, the Cowboys' poor offensive ways from last season carried over and in the end cost the team a victory. In comparison, LA converted 14-of-19 third down attempts. The 14 third-down conversions were the most by any team in the last decade in a single game. That number included Herbert and the offense converting four straight third downs to seal the victory at the end of the game. Both teams have tough games coming up. The Cowboys host the Eagles next Monday, while the Chargers travel to KC to face the Chiefs. Here's what I see in LA from the Chargers. The team is healthier, has an upgraded offensive line, improved special teams and solid coaching now with Brandon Staley in for Anthony Lynn. Herbert passed a major test against an aggressive Washington defense in Week 1 and now he faces likely one of the worst units in the entire league. I don't see any regression happening for Herbert, especially not against this weak Cowboys defense, which will be playing without its top pass-rushers. Defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence fractured his foot in Wednesday's practice The Cowboys are just 2-10 SU in their last 12 road games (going back to late 2019) and I don't see them 'sneaking' under the number again this week at a MUCH-improved Chargers team. Good luck...Larry |
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09-19-21 | Vikings +4 v. Cardinals | Top | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Min Vikings at 4:05 ET. The Cardinals looked great in their 38-13 destruction at Tennessee in Week 1 over the Titans. However, I think it's possible they just may get caught a little too contented here against a dangerous Vikings team looking to bounce back from a tough 27-24 OT loss at Cincinnati. Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins was 36 of 49 for 351 yards and two touchdowns (both to Adam Thielen, who caught nine balls). RB Dalvin Cook was "off his game with just had 61 yards (3.1 YPC) and a TD, while adding four catches for 43 Yards. The Vikings D allowed Joe Burrow to throw for 261 yards (2 TDs / 0 INTs) plus allowed Joe Mixon 127 yards rushing. The defense will have to play MUCH better, as Kyler Murray is the best combination passer/runner among all NFC quarterbacks. He threw for 289 yards at Tennessee with four TF+D passes plus ran for a fifth score. Hopkins and Kirk are two outstanding WRs and each caught a pair of TDs. That said, the Vikes had to deal with a couple of unlucky bounces at the end of their game with Bengals. As long as Kirk Cousins isn't playing in prime time, he's usually very solid. He was last week as well in the loss, but either way, I do think Minnesota can keep this very competitive again. Arizona is unfamiliar with being as home favorite, as it has happened just NINE time since the start of the 2018 and guess what? Thar cards are just 2-7 ATS in that roll. Yes, I have to point out that Minnesota's Week 1 loss is the team's EIGHTH consecutive ATDS loss going back to Week 11 of 2020. My answer to that is this team is TOO talented for that to continues and I say this a "perfect" spot for not just an ATS win but a SU one. Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-19-21 | Bengals v. Bears -2.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 98 h 50 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chi Bears at 1:00 ET. Cincinnati held on for dear life in an emotional 27-24 OT win over the Vikings in Week 1. The Bengals gave up 10 points in the 4th quarter, including a game-tying 53-yard FG (0:00) to send the game into OT. However, Cincy did eke out the win. Meanwhile, the Bears 'took it on the chin' in LA in the season's first Sunday night game, losing 34-14. It was just 13-7 at the half but the Rams won the second half 21-7, as Stafford threw for 321 yards and three TDs in his LA debut. Joe Burrow was solid (20 of 27 for 261 yards with two TDs and zero INTs) plus RB Mixon was a pleasant surprise with 127 rushing yards. However, the Cincy 2ndy was riddled by Cousins, who threw for 351 yards and two INTs without an INT despite 49 attempts. As noted above, Chicago's 2ndy wasn't any better than Cincy's. Veteran Andy Dalton is the Chicago starter at QB and he did not play well in his Chicago debut. However, the Bears did run for 134 yards (5.2 YPC) with Montgomery getting 108 on 6.8 YPC. Taking a look at this game reminds me that the worst thing bettors can do is to overreact at the beginning of the season. Not every team that struggles in Week 1 will continue to do so (and vice versa). Being successful in the NFL is much like handicapping the NFL, as making adjustments from week to week is crucial. The good news for the Bears? The NFC North is wide open, as Minnesota, Detroit, and Green Bay also all lost. The Packers looked pathetic. The Bengals on the other hand, are at their arch-nemesis Pittsburgh next week, followed by a Thursday night game at home against the Jaguars. Can anyone say letdown spot? This is a solid great situational play, as Chicago is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 after a 20 points or greater SU loss in its previous outing. What's more, Cincy head coach begins his third season with the Benagls and over the first two, the Bengals are just 2-14 SU on the road. Not much to 'cover' here and I expect Dalton to lead the Bears to a VERY satisfying win, that would at worst, leave them tied for the division lead. Small steps. Good luck...Larry |
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09-19-21 | Bills v. Dolphins +3.5 | Top | 35-0 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Year (AFC East) is on the Mia Dolphins at 1:00 ET. Sean McDermott took over the Bills in 2017 and promptly ended Buffalo's 17-year postseason drought. As he enters fifth season as Buffalo's head coach, he's led the Bills to THREE playoff appearances in his first four seasons, including falling just ONE win shy of the team's first Super Bowl appearance since the 1993 season in 2020 when they lost the AFC championship game 38-24 at KC. Miami's Brian Flores begins his third season with the Dolphins and his team just missed a playoff berth in 2020, finishing 10-6. Optimism was running high in Miami entering 2021, especially for a franchise that has made just TWO playoff appearances in the previous 19 years! The teams got off two different starts in Week 1, as the Bills were upset 23-16 at home by the Steelers, while the Dolphins ruined Mac Jones' NFL debut with a 17-16 win in New England. The Bills allowed Pittsburgh to score 17 points in the fourth quarter, seven coming on a blocked punt TD return. Josh Allen had a breakout season in 2021 but looked no better than OK, throwing for 270 yards (one TD / 0 INTs) but that came on 51 attempts! In the end, Allen led his team to just 16 points! Tua Tagovailoa had 202 passing yards, one TD, and one INT last week He got little help from a running game that was held to just 74 yards rushing (3.2 YPC). The Miami defense allowed Jones to throw for 281 yards (no INTs) and RB Harris had 100 yards on the ground but in the end, the Pats could only muster 16 points (the one stat that matters MOST!). It might be easy to call for a Buffalo bounce back after a humbling home loss to the Steelers in Week 1, but the Bills may just be the most overhyped team in the league. My call here is for Miami to earn a second straight AFC East win, as the Dolphins jelled in the second half of last season and opened 2021 with a win over Belichick in his backyard last Sunday. Miami left backers smiling down the stretch of 2020, covering SIX straight at home, winning FIVE of them SU (lone loss, but an ATS win, was against KC). Josh Allen is NO Patrick Mahomes and how sweet would a Miami win be? The Dolphins were the only AFC East team to win in Week 1 and a "W" in this one would move them to 2-0, with the Bills falling to 0-2. That's what I expect and any points are just a bonus. Good luck...Larry |
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09-18-21 | Arizona State -4 v. BYU | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 16 m | Show |
My 9* CFB Week 3 Marquee is on Arizona St at 10:15 ET. Both Arizona St and BYU have opened 2-0. The Sun Devils haven't really been tested, rolling at home 41-14 over Southern Utah and 37-10 over UNLV. Meanwhile, BYU opened with a 24-16 win in Las Vegas over Arizona and then followed with a 26-17 'Holy War' win over Utah in Provo (ended a 9-game losing streak in the rivalry).
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09-18-21 | Charlotte v. Georgia State -3 | Top | 9-20 | Win | 100 | 125 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* Group of 5 Game of the Year is on Georgia St at 7:00 ET. The Charlotte football program was created in 2008 and gained FBS status in 2013. Georgia State began its football program in 2010 and joined the SBC in 2013. The Panthers went 0-12 in 2013 and then 1-13 in 2014. However, the program has gotten things figured out, as the Panthers have played in FOUR bowls the last six seasons. However, Charlotte has opened 2-0 in 2021, while Ga St sits at 0-2. Charlotte upset Duke 31-28 at home in Week 1 as a six-point underdog (the school's first-ever Power 5 win), before hammering Gardner-Webb 38-10 as a 22.5 point favorite. QB Reynolds has thrown for a modest 427 yards but his running game is averaging 230.0 YPG on 5.3 YPC ((leading rusher Camp has just 107 yards). Defense has been a major issue for Charlotte, as the 49ers entered the 2021 season having allowed more than 30 PPG is SIX of the last seven seasons. Those defensive woes haven't reared its ugly head yet this season, but it's coming (note: The 49ers allowed 352 rush yards (8.0 YPC) against Duke in the opener.). Georgia St was routed 43-10 at Army on Sep 4 and then last Saturday was in the wrong place at the wrong time, playing at North Carolina, which was coming off a season opening loss to Va Tech. NC's Heisman-hopeful QB Sam Howell threw for 352 yards (three TDs) and ran for 104 yards with three TDs. The Tar Heels won 59-17. We just played a talented North Carolina team, and for two-and-a-half quarters, we fought and we scrapped and we clawed to try to hang in there," Panthers' head coach Shawn Elliott said earlier this week. "About six or seven minutes left in that third quarter, it was still a two-possession ballgame, but then it got away from us. So there were some positives, but obviously, no one in our football program is feeling good about where we are right now." Ga St opened the season with 11 returning starters on offense and eight on defense and will NOT face that kind of offensive talent here. The Panthers almost NEED to win this one, as a trip to Auburn is up next (0-4 start?). I think Charlotte's 2-0 start is a little bit of a 'mirage' and I expect an EASY win for the home side. After all, Charlotte is just 8-26 SU on the road the last six seasons and this is its first roadie of 2021. I like betting on motivated teams and there's NO question that the Panthers fit the bill and this contest is a big step down in competition, plus they got back some missing starters last week. That's the play. Good luck...Larry |
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09-18-21 | Northwestern -2.5 v. Duke | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -117 | 118 h 50 m | Show |
The 1st play of my STP is an 8* on Northwestern at 4:00 ET. Both teams enter at 1-1, but I feel that this is a matchup which favors Northwestern. The Wildcats are the slight favorite here on the road, but I feel they could be much bigger ones. Northwestern is led by QB Hunter Johnson, who has 341 yards passing in the early going, with four TDs and just one INT. Evan Hull has 213 rushing yards and two TDs for the Wildcats. Gunnar Holmberg has 498 passing yards, one TD and no INTs for Duke (he also has 24 rushing yards and two TDs scored on the ground.) Mataeo Durant has carried the ball 44 times for a team-high 296 yards and six major scores. Northwestern was 7-2 last season after a bowl win over Auburn, ending as the AP's 10th-ranked team. Yes, the Wildcats returned only eight starters but I firmly believe they are a much stronger team than Duke, which was only 2-9 in 2020. Northwestern lost its season opener to Michigan St but the Spartans look like they'll be a top-25 team. Duke lost its opener at Charlotte and a 45-17 win over NC A&T means little. I'm not reading too much into Duke's early numbers, as its level of competition has skewed them on both sides of the ball. Pat Fitzgerald has had some career at Northwestern, leading the Wildcats to 10 bowl bids in the last 13 season (Northwestern has won its last four bowl games). Including this game, northwester has four Beatable foes over the next five weeks (one bye). Could this be the "start of something big?" Just maybe. For this one, lay the small spread. Good luck...Larry |
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09-18-21 | Virginia Tech v. West Virginia -2.5 | Top | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 64 h 38 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on West Va at 12:00 ET. |
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09-17-21 | Maryland v. Illinois +8 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 100 h 14 m | Show |
My 9* Big Ten Game of the Month is on Illinois at 9:00 ET. Maryland's opened the season 2-0, after playing just five games last season (2-3). The Terps upset West Va in 9/4 at home 30-24 and then routed Howard 62-0 last Saturday (again at home). QB Taulia Tagovailoa has thrown six TDs (zero INTs). The defense posted a shutout last weekend, after holding West Va to a modest 20 points. However, for me, this is a classic case of not "overreacting" to early numbers (more in a bit). Illinois finished 2-6 last year, firing head coach Lovie Smith after seven games. The Illini hired Bret Bielema, who was terrific at Wisconsin but a flop at Arkansas. He took over a program that last posted a winning season in 2011! The 2021 season got off to an excellent start, as Illinois upset Nebraska at home 30-22 on Aug 28 but the team has since lost 37-30 at home to UTSA (9/4), before getting routed 42-14 on 9/11 at UVa. Peters was the returning starter at QB but was injured early vs Nebraska and has not returned. Artur Sitkowski has stepped in and has six TDs and just one INT (don't blame him!). There will be NO lack of motivation here for the Illini, as a loss just could send Bielema's first season at College Park spiraling out of control. I believe Maryland is nowhere near as good as its 2-0 start and with games coming up against Iowa (10/1) and at Ohio St (10/9) coming up soon, I expect the Terps to get 'exposed.' Hey, why not start that process right here, as the Terps are just 3-11 SU on the road the last three seasons. Does that sound like a team that is supposed to be a road favorite of a TD or more? "Bow wow" The Illini 'bark' LOUDLY in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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09-16-21 | Giants +3.5 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 51 h 22 m | Show |
My 9* NFC 'Least' Game of the Month is on the NY Giants at 8:20 ET. The Washington Football Team won the NFC East in 2020 at 7-9, earning the division the moniker of NFC 'Least.' In the just completed preseason, Washington was the ONLY team in the NFC East to win a game, going 1-2 SU but 0-3 ATS. As for the Cowboys, Eagles and Giants, they combined to go 0-9-1. How did things go in Week 1? The Eagles won impressively 32-6 in Atlanta and the Cowboys lost 31-29 at Tampa Bay on a last-second FG, but Washington and New York both lost (0-2 ATS). The Giants travel to D.C. off a 27-13 home loss to Denver, a game in which QB Daniel Jones scored on a 4-yard TD run with no time left on the clock. Washington's defense was the reason it won the division last season but that D allowed the Chargers to gain 424 yards and most notably, to convert 14 of 19 third down attempts. Ryan Fitzpatrick suffered a hip injury early on (3 of 56 for 13 yards) and it looks as if Taylor Heinicke (from the FB powerhouse of Old Dominion) will be Thursday night's starting QB. It's a short week but I like the Giants. Daniel Jones looked OK, as he had 267 passing yards, one touchdown, and zero interceptions (37 attempts. However, the Giants NEED a return to form by Saquan Barkley (10 carries for 26 yards). The Giants have 'owned' this series lately, winning the last FIVE (4-1 ATS). Want more? The Giants are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 on the road, while the Washington Football team is just 1-5 against the spread in its last six when playing the role of favorite. I expect an outright but grab as many points as you can, The play is New York. Good luck...Larry |
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09-12-21 | Bears +9 v. Rams | Top | 14-34 | Loss | -125 | 100 h 57 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic is on the Chicago Bears. Both teams are starting new quarterbacks. Matthew Stafford is going to have his hands full now that he's out of the dome in Detroit and amidst the difficult NFC West. Andy Dalton will get the call to start off with in Chicago, with Justin Fields as a very capable backup ready to step in if needed. I think the Bears veteran can match Rams' new QB Matthew Stafford's performance (who will face his former team the Lions in Week 7.) The Rams also have to still fill the void left by Cam Akers, who was lost to a torn Achilles. Granted, the Rams have bigger playmakers on both sides of the ball, but I'm not convinced that Stafford is going to be able to seamlessly fit into this West Coast offense and Conference overall. The Rams also have to transition for a tricky non-conference road game at Indianapolis next weekend, before then returning home to host the defending champs. The Bears on the other hand have a very manageable early schedule, which sees them return home to face the Bengals next, followed by the Browns and Lions. All games are important in a 17 game season, but the Bears will be looking really good if they can manage to pull off a road upset here. One final thing, Chicago is 7-3 ATS in its last ten NFC road games as an underdog in the +6.5 to +8.5 points range. I'm not calling for the outright. But everything points to this one coming right down to the wire. As such, grab as many points as you can. Good luck...Larry |
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09-12-21 | Browns +6.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 29-33 | Win | 100 | 151 h 15 m | Show |
My AFC 10* Game of the Month is on the Cle Browns at 4:25 ET. Both teams are predicted to do well this season. Obviously, that's no surprise for KC but it looks as if Cleveland has finally "turned the corner." The Chiefs have exceeded their O/U season win total eight seasons in a row. They're a +445 favorite to win Super Bowl 56 and +234 leader to repeat as conference Champion. These teams played here last season in the divisional round of the playoffs, and Kansas City had to hold on for dear life in the 22-17 victory. Chiefs' star QB Patrick Mahomes left that one early with an injury. What I do definitely think can't be ignored though, is that the road team is 4-0 ATS in the past four in this series, including the playoffs. Cleveland has gotten progressively better each of the last five seasons and that progression is going to continue this year. Especially on the defensive side of the ball, as it concentrated heavily in that department in the offseason, signing Jadeveon Clowney and drafting Northwestern cornerback Greg Newsome II at No. 26 overall. This is a big contract year for Browns' QB Baker Mayfield. He'll benefit from a 100% healthy Odell Beckham Jr. Note that Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road underdog. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will once again be contending at the end of the season. Of course, they will be. I won't try and bash Kansas City, it's obviously one of the best in the entire league and as long as Mahomes stays healthy, a Super Bowl victory is definitely a very real possibility again. However, KC went just 8-11 ATS last year including the playoffs. Anything can happen in Week 1. It's unpredictable. The bottom line is, I think that Mayfield has the offense around him to keep pace with Mahomes. In a contest that I see coming down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-12-21 | Jaguars -2.5 v. Texans | Top | 21-37 | Loss | -115 | 144 h 56 m | Show |
My 9* NFL Week 1 Las Vegas Insider is on the Jax Jaguars at 1:00 ET. Full, detailed analysis Monday afternoon by 3:00 ET. |
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09-12-21 | Seahawks -2.5 v. Colts | Top | 28-16 | Win | 100 | 82 h 7 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Seattle at 1:00 ET. Seattle has made the playoffs in EIGHT of the last nine years. The 'Hawks won 12 games last year. The Colts also made the playoffs last season, while winning 11 games. Seattle is a difficult offensive team for anyone to handle and it all starts with QB Russell Wilson. He has plenty of 'weapons' around him, including RB Chris Carson and WRs DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The Seahawks have a strong defense as well, one which includes Bobby Wagner, Quandre Diggs, and DJ Reed. Seattle is poised for a big year defensively, many feel a unit that could rival the famed "Legion Of Boom." The Colts played amazingly well with Philip Rivers under center last year, but Carson Wentz will be the FOURTH new starting QB for Indianapolis in the last four seasons. RB Johnathan Taylor was big last year, and the defense was a strength as well for Indianapolis. Seattle comes in as the road favorite, meaning oddsmakers would make them about a TD favorite on a neutral field. I'd agree with that plus Seattle owns a distinct advantage at the QB position. Wentz has struggled the last few seasons, and he's on a new team under a new system and I just can't see him keeping pace with Wilson's offense down the stretch. Lay the short price. The play is Seattle. Good luck...Larry |
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09-11-21 | Utah v. BYU +7 | Top | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 67 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* CFB Rivalry Game of the Year is on BYU at 10:15 ET. Utah visits BYU (both teams have opened 1-0) for the school's annual "Holy War" for the Beehive Boot. Utah is off a 40-17 win over Weber State, while BYU beat Arizona 24-16 in Las Vegas. The two bitter rivals did not meet last season (COVID) for just the SECOND time since 1946. To say this is a "revenge" game for BYU would be an understatement, as it's lost nine straight in this series. |
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09-11-21 | Memphis v. Arkansas State +5.5 | Top | 55-50 | Win | 100 | 80 h 43 m | Show |
My 9* Group of 5 Game of the Week is on Arkansas St at 7:00 ET. Arkansas State comes in under the radar here in my opinion. The Red Wolves are off a relatively simple 40-21 win over Central Arkansas as 14-point favorites and I believe they have a legitimate shot at winning today's game outright. Memphis is off a 42-17 win over Nicholls State, but with a game at home against Mississippi State next weekend, I believe the Tigers are going to get caught looking ahead to that much more high-profile matchup. Seth Henigan had 265 yards passing and a TD for Memphis last weekend, while Brandon Thomas rushed for 147 yards and a touchdown. Not to be outdone though, the Red Wolves got a couple of good performances, as James Blackman threw for 169 yards in last week's win, while Layne Hatcher threw for 150 yards and 4 TDs on a perfect 12 of 12 passing! Alan Lamar led the rushing attack with 67 yards and a TD on 18 carries. These two teams are led by their dynamic offenses and everything points to an old-fashioned shootout. It really does have the feel to me of whichever team has its hands on the ball last is going to win this one. As such, I'm grabbing the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-11-21 | Iowa v. Iowa State -3.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -120 | 121 h 19 m | Show |
My 9* CFB Week 2 Marquee is on Iowa St at 4:30 ET. Iowa State lost to Iowa 18-17 in 2019. While it lost straight up, it did manage to cover the spread in that one, as it had 1.5 points afforded to it. This is a revenge game for the home side (these teams didn't face each other last season.) Iowa State likely got caught looking ahead to this game after having to hold on for a 16-10 win here over Northern Iowa last week. It was a lackluster effort, as the Cyclones were a 28.5 point favorite. Iowa clobbered Indiana 34-6 at home last weekend as a 3.5 point favorite. After this game though Iowa doesn't play again until October 1st, while Iowa State has a game at UNLV next weekend. Regardless, both teams come into this game 1-0 with Iowa St ranked No.. 9 and Iowa at No. 10 *up from No. 18). The Hawkeyes won 34-6 over Indiana last week but QB Spencer Petras threw for just 145 yards on 13 of 27 passing while also rushing for a score as well. However, the Iowa offense gained just 303 yards, scoring two TDs on INT returns. I seriously wonder if it's more a case of Indiana just playing terribly, rather than Iowa being a world beater right out of the gate to start the season. While Iowa State had a much more difficult time in its opening game, QB Brock Purdy quietly had 199 yards on 21 of 26 passing, while also rushing for 58 yards on nine carries (he's thrown 46 TDs vs 18 INTs the last two seasons). Breece Hall (led the nation in rushing last season with 1,572 yards plus added 21 TDs) but had just 69 yards and a TD on 23 carries for 69 yards and a touchdown. The Cyclones defense was also stout, allowing just 10 points to a dangerous Northern Iowa team. Yes, Iowa has won 13 of the last 17 meetings (plus enters on a seven-game winning streak after ending last season with six straight wins) but Iowa St has 20 returning starters and is also 7-2 ATS in its last nine as a home favorite in the -2.5 to -4.5 points range. Nothing but good things to say about Iowa's Kirk Ferentz but Matt Campbell has led Iowa St to FOUR straight bowls. He led Iowa St to its first regular-season first-place finish of any sort in 119 years and then the Cyclones were selected for the 2021 Fiesta Bowl, the first major-bowl appearance in school history, and defeated Oregon 34-17. They finished ninth in both major bowls, the highest final ranking in school history. Now it's time to win the "biggest-ever Cy-hawk game in series history. I like the revenge-minded home side to pull away down the stretch. Lay the points, the play is Iowa State. Good luck...Larry |
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09-09-21 | Cowboys +8 v. Bucs | Top | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 75 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Week 1 Season-Opener is on the Dal Cowboys at 8:20 ET. Did anyone think the Buccaneers were really going to win the Super Bowl last year? They were one of the early favorites, but not many would have predicted Tampa winning the Super Bowl after about Week 14. Does anyone think Tampa can repeat? Even for the best teams of all time, repeating as NFL champion is an unbelievably difficult thing to do. The Bucs though are once again one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl this season and while Tom Brady and company may indeed go on to do just that, I think they'll have their hands full with Dak Prescott and a Cowboys team that will collectively be playing with a chip on their shoulders this season. Prescott got injured early on last year and the Cowboys went on to finish 6-10. The offense was decent even without Prescott in, but the problem for the Cowboys was on the other side of the ball. Dallas was active in the offseason to address several defensive issues, and I expect a dramatic improvement. Keep your eyes on Micah Parsons, who could easily win Defensive Player of the Year this season. What more can I say about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers that hasn't been said a million times already? If you're wagering on this game, then you almost assuredly already know the strengths and weaknesses of the Buccaneers, also the cast of characters in all three phases, and the coaching staff as well. So why will Brady and Bruce Arians get caught "looking past" the Cowboys on Opening night? Tampa could be caught flat-footed here out of the gate, as it faces a relatively "simple" opening schedule, with Atlanta coming to town next Sunday, followed by road games at the Rams and Patriots. Dallas on the other hand has two straight road games to open the season, including a tough one at the Chargers in Week 2. I think Prescott and the Cowboys throw their best show in Week 1. I also expect the Dallas defense to be vastly improved this season. Will those things combine to deliver an outright victory for the visiting side in the Champs house? Probably not, but I do expect this one to be competitive until the final moments. These teams last met in 2018 when Dallas beat Tampa Bay for the 7th time in the last eight matchups. Is that old news? Yes, but this is NOT. The Bucs are on just a 7-19-2 ATS run as a non-division home favorite. As such, grab the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-05-21 | Notre Dame v. Florida State +7 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
My 9* 'Bobby Bowden Bowl' is on Florida State at 7:30 ET. This will be an emotional contest for Florida State, as it is the Seminoles' first game since Bobby Bowden's death (the program will honor its legendary head coach before the game starts. It is also a very important season, as Florida State's 3-6 record last year was its worst since going 3-8 in 1975, the year before Bowden took over. Visiting Tallahassee Sunday night will be Notre Dame, which made the CFP last season and opens 2021 as the AP's 9th-ranked team. However, this is considered a "reloading" year for the Fighting Irish. Taking over at QB for Ian Book (a huge winner and third-down master) will be Wisconsin transfer, Jack Coan. His challenge is to lead an offense with just TWO returning starters. FSU features one of the best stories in college football this season with the debut of former UCF quarterback McKenzie Milton. Milton will be taking the field for the first time in 33 months, after suffering a knee injury against USF in November 2018. The injury was so gruesome that doctors had to consider amputation. After a grueling rehab process and a transfer to Tallahassee, Milton looks to complete a near-miraculous comeback. This is a great opportunity for the Seminoles to catch the Irish a little uncertain in a few areas. Mike Norvell steps in as FSU's new head coach and in four seasons at Memphis he led the tigers to a 38-15 record and four bowl berths. I like this guy and and he has all the tools in place to improve his offense dramatically this year. I'm not calling for an upset but the again, I may just be. Bottom line is, TAKE the points! Good luck...Larry |
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09-04-21 | Nevada +3.5 v. California | Top | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 122 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* Non-Conference Game of the Month is on Nevada at 10:30 ET. Nevada and Cal open their respective season Saturday Sep 4 at California Memorial Stadium in Berkeley. Nevada is coached by Jay Norvell and Cal by Justin Wilcox. Both arrived at their respective schools in 2017. Norvell went 3-9 in his first season in Reno but has led the Wolf Pack to three straight bowls since then, including going 7-2 in last year's pandemic-shortened season after beating Tulane 38-27 in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Wilcox was 5-7 in his first season but then led Cal to back-to-back bowls in 2018 and 2019. However, COVID pretty much wiped out Cal's entire 2020 season, as the Bears would play just four games (1-3). I like what Nevada brings to the table in Week 1. QB Carson Strong is expected to take another big step forward this year. Last season he finished with 2,858 yards, 70.1 percent passing, along with a sharp 27-4 TD-to-INT ratio. RB Toa Taua is now a senior and he finished with 675 rushing yards last year. Keep your eyes on WR Romeo Doubs as well, as he had 1,002 yards on 58 receptions in 2020. Nevada returns 10 starters on both offense AND defense. The Wolf Pack were the most penalized team in the MWC last year but with the core of each unit returning, this sloppy play is also expected to take a big turn in the right direction this season. Cal's defense has been solid the last few years, but the offense has struggled under QB Chase Garbers. He's dealt with several injury issues over the years. He'll benefit from having most of his starting receivers return this season but the offensive line is another issue entirely. The Cal offense was one-dimensional last year, as the OL was never able to stop any sort of a pass rush. Four of the five starters return up front for Cal, so the unit should/could make big progressions this season. Still, Cal offense averaged just 20.3 PPG on 320 YPG in 2020. Yes, Cal leads the series 22-3-1 but the schools have only met TWICE since 2010. Nevada won 53-21 in Reno back in 2010 and at Berkeley 31-24 in 2012. I believe Nevada is just too deep and have a hard time seeing this Cal offense keeping up the pace down the stretch. The Wolf Pack's defense was middle of the road last year, but with 10 starters returning, expect a significantly improved unit this season. I say that improvement starts right here in Week 1. I think the outright win is in the cards, but let's grab as many points as they give you. Closing clincher: Under HC Justin Wilcox, Cal is a money-burning 1-8-1 ATS as a home favorite. Good luck...Larry |
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09-04-21 | Georgia v. Clemson -3 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
My 9* NCAAF Week 1 Marquee is on Clemson at 7:30 ET. The No.3-ranked Clemson Tigers take on the No. 5-ranked Georgia Bulldogs Saturday night for the Duke's Mayo Classic in Charlotte. It marks the first meeting between the two regional rivals since 2014, Saturday night's prime time showdown has been eagerly anticipated since being announced last year that ESPN's "College GameDay" will be on hand. Clemson is coming off a 10-2 season that ended with a 49-28 loss to Ohio State in the College Football Playoff semifinals at the Sugar Bowl, while Georgia went 8-2 last season, capping its campaign with a 24-21 win over Cincinnati in the Peach Bowl. This game is being played at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, where Clemson has won the last four ACC championship games. Here's a list: 34-10 over Notre Dame. 62-17 over Virginia. 42-10 over Pittsburgh. 38-3 over Miami-Fl. Nick Saban's success at Alabama is unmatched but in "second-place" is Clemson's Dabo Swinney. He has led Clemson to 10-plus wins in 10 consecutive seasons and the Tigers have made the 'Final 4' in the last six CFP, winning national titles in 2016 and 2018. Clemson is the ONLY team the in the country to make the playoff each of the last six years. This will be Clemson's first game in years without the record-setting tandem of QB Trevor Lawrence and RB Travis Etienne, both of whom were selected by the Jacksonville Jaguars in the first round of the NFL draft last spring. However, don't 'cry' for the Tigers. There are NO worries about DJ Uiagalelei taking over at QB. Filling in for Lawrence last season, he passed for 342 yards in his first career start against BC and then followed that by passing for 439 yards at Notre Dame (most passing yards ND has ever allowed to an opposing QB). 5 TDs and zero INTs in 117 attempts for the season. Clemson has a crowded RB situation with senior Lyn-J Dixon the most experienced of the bunch. However, true freshmen Will Shipley and Phil Mafah were so impressive in fall camp that they could see considerable playing time. As for Clemson's defense, it returns NINE of 11 starters and boasts one of the most imposing front lines in the country. Georgia's defensive front is expected to rank among the nation's best. The Bulldogs led the country in rushing defense last year after finishing among the national leaders in that category in 2019. However, Georgia's defensive secondary will be breaking in three new starters. Much is being made of JT Daniels at QB for Georgia. He started the final four games last season and threw for 1,231 yards (67.2%) with 10 TDs and 2 INTs. However, his regular season wins came over Miss St, South Carolina and Missouri (combined regular season record of 10-20). Georgia did beat Cincy in Peach Bowl 24-21 but needed to outscore them 14-0 in the 4th-quarter. The game-winner came on a 53-yard FG with THREE seconds left! Here's a great quote by an opposing coach about Georgia. "The Bulldogs are consistent and talented but are still figuring out how to become elite." Kirby Smart is in his 6th season at Georgia, going 52-14. This just in! He's NO Dabo Swinney. Let's look at his last four years. 2017: won SEC champ game over Auburn but then suffered a heartbreaking 26-23 loss (OT) to Alabama in the national championship game. 2018: lost SEC champ game to Ala, blowing a 14-point lead. 2019: got routed 37-10 in SEC champ game by LSU. 2020: lost 41-24 at #2 Alabama as #3 team and then as #5 team, got crushed by Fla (#8) 44-28 in to biggest regular season meetings. Where's the team's "big game" win under Smart? Georgia has won SEVEN straight season openers but its last loss in a season opener came 2013. The school that beat them? You guessed it, Clemson. Smart and Georgia once again come up sort in a "Big Game!" Good luck...Larry |
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09-04-21 | UTSA +6 v. Illinois | Top | 37-30 | Win | 100 | 100 h 4 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on UTSA at 7:30 ET I say the Illini have a letdown here after their 30-22 upset victory to kick off the season at home over favored Wisconsin last Saturday (note: Illinois last beat Nebraska in back-to-back years in 1923-24). UTSA finished 7-5 last year and made it to a bowl game, ultimately falling 31-24 to Louisiana. Illinois finished 2-6 last year. Head coach Lovie Smith was fired after seven games (note: The Illini last posted a winning season in 2011!). But after their improbable 30-22 win over the Huskers, can anyone say "letdown" spot here? Illinois starting QB Brandon Peters left the game holding his left (non-throwing) shoulder after being sacked hard near the end of the first quarter. He was 3-of-4 passing for 35 yards. He did not return and was replaced by Artur Sitkowski, a sophomore transfer from Rutgers, who went 12-of-15 for 124 yards and two scores. Peters' status is up in the air for Saturday's game and I think it may be too much to expect that Sitkowski will match his effort vs Nebraska. The Road Runners have plenty of talent, and they've excelled in this spot for bettors, going 7-2 ATS in their last nine as an underdog and 7-2 ATS in their last nine on the road. UTSA has a potent and underrated offense that returns most of its core group of players (a unit that averaged 415 yards and 28 PPG last year.) Sincere McCormick is a dominant RB that keeps defenses honest and the entire offensive line returns as well. Illinois gave up 232 years on the ground last week, which doesn't bode well facing this run-first Road Runners attack. With Maryland at home next, followed by a trip to Purdue, this is also a letdown/look-ahead spot for the home side. While I do in fact feel an outright upset is possible again on this field for a second straight week, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can. The play is UTSA. Good luck...Larry |
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09-04-21 | West Virginia v. Maryland +3 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 98 h 10 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Maryland at 3:30 ET. Maryland's going to have its hands full today with a WVU defense that should be among the best in the Big 12. However, I think the Terps can match pace with the Mountaineers and come away with what some may call a surprising OUTRIGHT win.The problem for West Virginia is on the offensive side. QB Jarret Doege looked brilliant at times last season, but he was prone to making mistakes as well. Several of them, and all of the time. Maryland has a well-balanced offense, which isn't great for West Virginia either. Taulia Tagovailoa will be given the green light today for the home side and he has a slew of dangerous weapons around him (including tight ends Malik Jackson and Chigoziem Okonkwo) Last year was a difficult one for both teams. But I think that Maryland's ceiling to improve is huge, while WVU is poised for some minor regression on both sides of the ball. Opening Day and on its own field, I think Maryland wins the day but why not take the points? The play is Maryland. Good luck...Larry |
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09-04-21 | Army +3 v. Georgia State | Top | 43-10 | Win | 100 | 123 h 35 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Army at 12:00 ET. Georgia State opens the season at home against a tricky opponent. Clearly, with a spread like this, the oddsmakers feel these teams are evenly matched. I do as well. The Black Knights are not a powerhouse but under head coach Jeff Monken, Army has been 'bowling' in FOUR of the last five seasons (won 10 games in 2017, 11 in 2018 and went 9-3 in last year's pandemic-shortened season, after losing 24-21 to West Va in the Liberty Bowl (covered at plus-7). Army's option is always a challenge (finished fourth in the nation in rushing yards per game last year at 273 per) but Georgia State's strength on the defensive side of the ball is stopping the run (it ranked third in rushing defense last season.). The Panthers will need to deal with Army QB Tyhier Tyler, who had 578 rushing yards and five scores last year, all coming in the final seven games. Georgia State began its football program in 2010 and joined the SBC in 2013. The Panthers went 0-12 in 2013 and then 1-13 in 2014. However, the program has gotten things figured out, as the Panthers have played in FOUR bowls the last six seasons. That's likely bad news for the rest of the Sunbelt Conference moving forward. QB Cornelious Brown IV is back under center. He struggled with INTs last year, but he's expected to make big strides this year. These schools have only played one other time, with the Panthers winning 28-21 in 2019. However, that 2019 Army finished just 5-8, the school's LONE losing season in the past FIVE years! Georgia St has a VERY tough first month, as after this home game with Army, the Panthers have road games at No. 10 North Carolina on Sep 11 and at Auburn on Sep 25. I'm taking the points but expect an outright Army win, which means Georgia St will likely open 0-2 (maybe 1-3 in Sep). Good luck...Larry |
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09-02-21 | Boise State v. Central Florida -4 | Top | 31-36 | Win | 100 | 292 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* NCAAF Season-Opener is on UCF at 7:00 ET. |
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02-07-21 | Chiefs -3 v. Bucs | Top | 9-31 | Loss | -113 | 130 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND Play is on the KC Chiefs at 6:30 ET. Super Bowl 55 will not be a rematch of the first-ever Super Bowl (Kansas City/Green Bay on Jan 15, 1967) but one would be hard-pressed to argue against the fact that this is one of the most-anticipated matchups of all-time. Tom Brady left New England and Bill Belichick in his rearview mirror and while the Pats failed to win the AFC East for the first time since 2008 by going 7-9 (Belichik's only other losing season in New England came in his first season with the Pats in 2000), Brady led one of the NFL's biggest losers (Tampa Bay) to its second-ever Super Bowl. Brady is now in his 10th Super Bowl (six wins in his first nine tries), where the G.O.A.T. will take on the defending champion Chiefs, led by Patrick Mahomes who many (most?) believe is the "G.O.A.T in Waiting." Mahomes and the Chiefs ended last season with NINE straight wins, including a 3-0 run in the playoffs. Mahomes led the Chiefs to a 14-1 record through 16 weeks in 202 and then sat out Week 17 since KC had clinched the No. 1 seed. The Chiefs began their postseason defense of last year's Super Bowl title by scoring on each of their four first-half possessions while generating 293 yards to build a 19-3 halftime margin over the Browns. Mahomes was KO'd in the 3rd quarter but KC held on for a 22-17 win. Mahomes wasn't cleared to play until Friday for e the AFC championship game and while the Bills led 9-0 after one quarter, the Chiefs would outscore the Bills 38-6 to take a commanding 38-15 lead by the mid-4th quarter (38-24 final). Mahomes threw for 325 yards with three TDs and zero INTs, after completing 21 of 30 for 255 yards and one TD (no INTs) and a rushing TD against the Browns. TE Kelce caught 105 passes for 1,416 yards (11 TDs) during the regular season and has added 21 catches and three TDs in two playoff games. WR Hill caught 87 passes for 1,276 yards with 15 TDs (plus two rushing TDs) in the regular season, while catching 17 balls in two playoff games to average 16.6 YPC. Rookie RB Edwards-Helaire (803 yards) has been a non-factor in the playoffs but Darel Wiliams has run for 130 yards on 5.0 YPC. Brady had two TD passes and 381 yards vs Washington but in wins over the Saints (54.5% for 199 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs) and Packers (55.6% for 280 yards with 3 TDs and 3 INTs), has not produced vintage Brady efforts. RB Aaron Jones has been limited to 78 yards on 3.4 YPC by injury (ran for 978 yards on 5.1 YPC and 7 TDs in the regular season) but Fournette has "turned back time" rushing for 211 yards and two TDs, while catching 14 passes with one TD. SIX players have caught Brady's seven playoff TD passes. Evans has two TDs (10 catches / 17.3 YPC), Godwin matches Fournette with 14 postseason catches (15.9 YPC / 1 TD) and TE Brate has 11 catches and one TD. Tampa Bay's defense has been superb in winning THREE straight road games. It held Washington to 289 yards, the Saints to 294 yards (forced four turnovers, including three INTs of Brees) and then shutting down Green Bay's running game (67 yards) while sacking Rodgers FIVE times. Yes, Tampa Bay is the first team to ever host a Super Bowl game but in the "Year of COVID," is that really an edge? Brady's career and especially his success in the postseason is without peer but his efforts against the Saints and the Packers were FAR from impressive (see above). Meanwhile, Mahomes has put up remarkable numbers in his first three full seasons as a starter, going 37-8 with 114 TD passes and just 23 INTs in attempts. He's 6-1 in his seven career postseason games, throwing 17 TDs and just two INTs for a 109.8 QB rating. It's MORE than fair to point out that prior to KC's 38-24 win in the AFC championship game that the Chiefs were on a 1-8 or 0-8-1 ATS run but it's equally fair to counter with the fact that Mahomes enters the Super Bowl having gone 25-1 SU in his last 26 starts (including the postseason). Tampa Bay's defense will NOT be able to contain Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense. Mahomes has a LONG way to go to surpass (if ever can) Brady's career accomplishments but this Super Sunday belongs to the 25-year-old. Good luck...Larry |
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01-24-21 | Bills v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 50 h 43 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the KC Chiefs at 6:40 ET. Buffalo QB Josh Allen did not have a big day against the Ravens (206 passing yards / one TD) and the Bills ran for just 32 yards but the Buffalo D held Baltimore's running game in check. CB Taron Johnson literally "stole the show" when he picked off Lamar Jackson and returned it 101 yards for a TD in the late third, breaking Baltimore's back. Buffalo's 17-3 win allowed the Bills to advance to the AFC championship game for the first time since 1994. The Bills head to KC on an EIGHT-game winning streak and have won 11 of 12 (lone loss was the result of that 'Hail Mary' miracle at Arizona in Week 10). Patrick Mahomes hadn't played in 21 days (since the Chiefs clinched the AFC's top seed in Week 16) when he took the field last Sunday against the Browns. However, the Chiefs began their postseason defense of last year's Super Bowl title by scoring on each of their FOUR first-half possessions while generating 293 yards to build a 19-3 halftime margin. Mahomes completed 11 of his first 12 passes and was 19 of 25 for 233 yards by halftime. Mahomes was KO'd from the game in the third quarter and the Chiefs had to hold on for a 22-17 win. Mahomes will take the field Sunday having won his last 11 starts, as KC becomes the first AFC team to host three consecutive conference title games. The good news for the Kansas City Chiefs is that Patrick Mahomes is planning to play. Mahomes said Friday that he is out of concussion protocol and is ready to start Sunday's game/ "Talking to all of the doctors and going through all of the testing, we have the belief that I'll have no lingering effects and I'll be able to go out there and be who I am,'' said Mahomes, who practiced for the third consecutive day on Friday. Buffalo QB Josh Allen and the Bills lost a 27-16 Week 6 home game to the Chiefs but have since won EIGHT straight and 11 of 12. Allen joins Mahomes plus legends Brady and Rodgers in the NFL's 'Final 4' and has had a season worthy of being in the same class as his counterparts. He completed 69.2 percent in the regular season for 4,544 yards (had EIGHT 300-yard games) with 37 TDs and just 10 INTs (107.2 QB rating). The Bill's running game (107.7 YPG ranks 20th) is suspect but the addition of Stefon Diggs was HUGE. Diggs' All-Pro season included NFL highs of 127 catches and 1,535 yards (also eight TDs). Fellow WR Beasley added a career-high 82 catches. Mahomes didn't play in the Chiefs' last regular-season game after they had already clinched the AFC's No. 1 seed. He finished completing 66.3% for 4,740 yards with 38 TDs and just six INTs (QB rating 108.2). KC's running game was not much better than Buffalo's (121.4 YPG) but rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire (803 yards / 4.4 YPC) is expected back after missing the Cleveland game with an ankle injury. KC has GREAT depth at receiver but Sammy Watkins (slowed by injuries all season) is expected to play here, joining an outstanding group led by All-World TE Kelce (105 catches / 1,416 yards / 11 TDs) and WR Hill (87 catches / 15 TDs). The Bills were not up to the challenge of playing the Chiefs in Week 6 (in Buffalo), as KC held them to 206 total yards. Allen had a season-low 122 passing yards, the team ran for just 84 yards and Diggs had six catches but for only 46 yards. Meanwhile, Mahomes went 21 of 26 for 225 yards with two TDs and no INTs (128.4 QB rating) and Edwards-Helaire ran for 161 yards! Kansas City ended last season winning its final NINE games (including the playoffs) and is 15-2 this season, after beating Cleveland. That's 24-2 SU and KC is just a three-point favorite here at home (Mahomes 'situation' has kept the number this low). I noted that Mahomes has won his last 11 starts (how about 24-1 over his last 25?) and in his five career home starts in the playoffs, has 15 TDs against zero INTs. That's good enough for me to back KC. Good luck...Larry |
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01-24-21 | Bucs v. Packers -3 | Top | 31-26 | Loss | -120 | 102 h 37 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Playoff Game of the Year is on the GB Packers at 3:05 ET. Tom Brady and the Bucs' offense turned three of four Saints turnovers into TDs and Tampa Bay beat the Saints 30-20 in the divisional round of the playoffs Sunday night at New Orleans. The Saints had beaten the Bucs in BOTH regular season meetings, 34-24 at home in Week 1 and then 38-3 at Tampa in Week 9. Two of those TDs came on short passes to WR Mike Evans and RB Leonard Fournette. Then, after an interception by LB Devin White, Brady drove the Bucs to the one-yard-line, from where he scored himself with 4:57 left to virtually ensure his 14th trip to a conference championship game but his first in the NFC. Brady finished 18 of 33 for 199 yards with two TD passes and that TD run. The 30-20 Tampa Bay win resembled more of a defensive struggle, as the Bucs had a modest 316 total yards and the Saints had just 294. However, unlike in his previous two meetings with the Saints (five INTs and six sacks), Brady was not intercepted and largely avoided pressure, taking only one sack. |
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01-17-21 | Browns v. Chiefs -9.5 | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -108 | 69 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the KC Chiefs at 3:05 ET. Full, detailed analysis Saturday afternoon by 3:00 ET. |
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01-16-21 | Ravens +3 v. Bills | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -117 | 56 h 53 m | Show |
My 9* "Battle of the Bs" is on the Bal Ravens at 8:15 ET. The Baltimore Ravens ended last season on a 12-game winning streak and entered the 2019 postseason 14-2 as the AFC's No. 1 seed. However, the Ravens lost 28-12 at home to the Titans as 10-point favorites. The two teams met in Week 11 of the 2020 season (again in Baltimore) and even with that playoff revenge, the Ravens blew a 21-10 third-quarter lead in a 30-24 OT loss. The Ravens were just 6-5 after their Week 12 loss to Pittsburgh but would go on a 5-0 SU & ATS run to finish 11-5 and earn the AFC's No. 5 seed. The Ravens drew the 4th-seeded Titans in the Wild Card round last Sunday and the THIRD time was 'the charm!' The Ravens fell behind 10-0 in the first quarter but dominated the rest of the way in winning 20-13. Lamar Jackson finally got his first postseason victory (0-2), running for 136 yards and a 48-yard TD while throwing for 179 yards. The Baltimore D held Tennessee to its fewest points all season and smothered 2,000-yard rusher Derrick Henry. Henry had run all over the Ravens with 328 yards rushing combined in the last two meetings but had his worst performance of the season, gaining only 40 yards on 18 carries. It's been a season to remember for Buffalo in 2020. QB Josh Allen set franchise records of 4,544 passing yards and 37 TDs as well as helping provide a new identity to a rising team that posted the franchise's best victory total since 1991 in going 13-3. The Bills won the AFC East for the first time since 1995 but entered their game with the Colts having lost their last SIX playoff contests since last winning a postseason game following the 1995 season. The Bills' 27-24 win over the Colts snapped that 0-6 postseason skid, winning their first playoff game since a 37-22 win over Miami on Dec 30, 1995. Allen passed for 324 yards with two TDs and zero INTs (121.6 QB rating), while leading the team in rushing with 54 yards and a TD. He's in just this third season but in two playoff games, has become only the FIFTH player since at least 1940 to score a touchdown rushing, passing and receiving in his playoff career (he scored on a 16-yard catch from John Brown in a 22-19 OT loss at Houston a year ago). Baltimore's Jackson became the first QB in NFL history to rush for at least 1,000 yards in multiple seasons in Baltimore's 38-3 win at Cincinnati in Week 17. Jackson rushed for 97 yards on 11 carries to give him 1,005 yards for the season. The Ravens finished with 404 rushing yards in that contest and led the NFL in rushing for the second straight season (191.9 YPG). How good is the Ravens' running game? It ran for 1,573 yards during its current 6-0 SU & ATS streak, which is more than SIX teams ran for all season! The Ravens are only the third team in NFL history to have three players top 700 yards rushing in a single season with Jackson (1,005 yards), rookie J.K. Dobbins (805) and Gus Edwards (723). Baltimore's defense finished second to the Rams in allowing just 18.9 PPG on the season. Allen's OUTSTANDING season was sure helped by the signing of WR Stefon Diggs, who caught 127 passes for 1,535 yards and eight TDs in the regular season. He then caught six passes for 128 yards (one TD) vs Indy. Fellow WR Beasley had a career season, catching 82 passes (4 TDs) for 967 yards. Beasley caught seven passes vs the Colts. However, there is a slight concern that BOTH Diggs (oblique) and Beasley (knee) have been somewhat limited this week in practice. It's true that Buffalo enters on a SEVEN-game winning streak and has won 10 of 11, losing only at Arizona when Murray and Hopkins connected on that improbable "Hail Mary." That said, Baltimore has been playing with a win-or-done urgency since early December, following a 1-4 skid that dropped it to 6-5. The Ravens were depleted by a COVID-19 outbreak in a 19-14 loss at Pittsburgh (but covered), before reeling off six consecutive wins and seven straight ATS wins. The Ravens are 'on a mission of redemption' from last season and it WON'T end here in Buffalo. Hey, maybe the Ravens can get the Browns to upset the Chiefs, meaning Baltimore would host the AFC championship game. Good luck...Larry |
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01-16-21 | Rams v. Packers -6.5 | Top | 18-32 | Win | 100 | 30 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND Play is on the GB Packers at 4:35 ET. The Rams started undrafted rookie QB John Wolford at Seattle last week due to Jared Goff's thumb injury but they beat the NFC West champion Seahawks by battering Russell Wilson and avoiding mistakes. The Rams allowed the fewest points (18.5 PPG) and total yards (281.9 YPG) during the regular season and allowed Seattle just 278 total yards and 11 FDs, while holding them to 20 points. Russell Wilson completed only 11 of 27 (40.7%) for 174 yards with two TDS, while throwing a "pick-6" and getting sacked FIVE times (QB rating of 72.1)! Wilson finished the regular season having completed 68.8% for almost 300 YPG with 40 TDs and just 13 INTs with a QB rating of 105.1. The victory came at a price though. Wolford was KO'd in the game and the Rams will go back to starter Jeff Goff, who is less than three weeks removed from thumb surgery. Goff was nowhere near 100% last Saturday, completing 9 of 19 for 1555 yards with one TD and zero INTs. What's more, defensive tackle Aaron Donald (ribs) and leading WR Cooper Kupp (knee) were injured. The Rams have expressed confidence that Donald, a six-time All-Pro, will play Saturday. Head coach Sean McVay said that "unless something unforeseen happens, the Terminator will be ready." Kupp (92 catches) also insists he'll play. He's joined by fellow WR Woods (90 catches / six TDs) to give LA an outstanding WR duo. The Rams' most important offensive players right now might be rookie RB Cam Akers and left tackle Andrew Whitworth. Although both are recovering from recent injuries, they're the keys to a revitalized ground game that racked up 164 yards rushing last week. Akers missed Week 16 and had just 34 yards on 21 attempts in Week 17, before rushing for 131 yards and one TD vs Seattle. The Rams come to Lambeau to face Aaron Rodgers and a Green Bay offense that led the NFL in scoring at 31.8 PPG and also committed the fewest TOs (11). Rodgers was consistently GREAT in 2020, leading the NFL with 48 TDs, a 70.7 percent completion rate, a 121.5 passer rating, a league-tying-low five INTs. He's the overwhelming favorite to win the MVP award. WR Davante Adams is the first player in NFL history to have at least 100 receptions with 18 receiving TDs in a season, as he finished with 115 receptions and 18 TDs in just 14 games. TE Tonyan had 52 catches (11 TDs), while RB Jones added 47 catches and two TDs. Like Adams, Jones missed two games but ran for 1,104 yards (5.5 YPC) and scored 11 rushing TDs. Green Bay lost a Nov 22 game at Indianapolis to the Colts in Week 11 (34-31) but has won SIX in a row since. Green Bay averaged 33.5 PPG during its winning streak and its defense also played very well, allowing only 18.5 PPG. The Packers will be playing a home game in front of paying spectators for the first time this season. The Lambeau Field crowd will include about 6,500 season-ticket holders as well as invited frontline health-care workers and first responders plus a league-mandated allotment for the visiting team. "That's going to help us, give us an extra added home-field advantage that we need, just bringing that extra juice," Packers running back Aaron Jones said. Most importantly, it will be 'Green Bay weather' on Saturday, with temps around freezing or below. Goff has only played two playoff games with temps under 32 degrees and has FIVE interceptions and zero TDs. Rodgers has 40 TDs and just 12 INTs in his 18 postseason games. Lay the points! Good luck...Larry |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State v. Alabama -7 | Top | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 151 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* "Signature" LEGEND Play is on Alabama at 8:00 ET. It's 7-0 Ohio State vs 12-0 Alabama in the CFP Championship Game Monday night at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. The Buckeyes advanced with a DOMINATING 49-28 win over Clemson on Jan 1 in the semifinals. Ohio St QB Justin Fields threw for 385 yards and six TDs, while RB Trey Sermon ran 31 times for 193 yards, as the Buckeyes avenged last season's 29-23 semi final loss to the Tigers. The Clemson defense had NO answer for Fields and the Ohio St offense, as the Buckeyes reeled off 28 unanswered points to take a 35-14 halftime lead. Mac Jones threw four TD passes, three to WR DeVonta Smith, plus RB Harris 'hurdled' his way to 125 rushing yards, as top-ranked Alabama rolled to a 31-14 victory over fourth-ranked Notre Dame to reach the CFP title game for the FIFTH time in the system's seven seasons (won in 2015 and 2017). Alabama scored on its first THREE possessions and seemed to get 'bored' after taking a 28-7 lead in the third quarter (won 31-14). Justin Fields has some VERY sore ribs (broken) but there's VERY little doubt he will be under center for this game. He's completed 73.4% for 1,906 yards (remember, just seven games) with 21 TDs and six INTs. WRs Wilson (40 catches / 16.8 YPC/ 5 TDs) and Olave (42 catches / 15.7 YPC / 7 TDs) are terrific, while TE Ruckert has just 12 catches but FIVE have resulted in TDs. RB Sermon enters off running for 331 yards in the Big Ten championship game vs Northwestern and following with 193 yards against Clemson. Mac Jones completes 77.0% of his passes for 4,036 yards with 36 TDs and just four INTs, giving him a nation's best QB rating of 203.0. DeVonta Smith (105 catches / 15.6 YPC / 20 TDs) is considered the best WR in the nation and Nick Saban just announced that WR Jaylen Waddle (25 catches / 22.3 YPC / 4 TDs in four games) has been cleared to return to practice and could play in this game. RB Harris can't match Sermon's heroics of the last two games but ran for 1,387 yards on 6.1 YPC with 24 TDs on the season. Both offenses seem 'unstoppable,' as Ohio St averages 42.5 PPG (8th), while Alabama averages 49.7 PPG (2nd). Both defenses are strong with Ohio State allowing 21.0 PPG and Alabama 19.5 PPG. However, the Alabama defense has really 'found itself,' after a poor start. The Crimson Tide allowed 28.8 PPG through their first four games but just 14.1 PPG over their last eight. Note, that includes them giving up 46 points to Florida in the SEC title game. Eliminating that game and the Tide allowed just 9.6 PPG over SEVEN of their last eight! Yes, Ohio St can claim it's won EIGHT of its last nine games as an underdog SU but matching its effort against Clemson here vs Alabama is to me, 'a bridge too far!' According to Ohio St head coach Ryan Day, his team's loss to Clemson last season reverberated for nearly a year among the Buckeyes. "Fresh off of that game, it was right on our minds, and something that when we got back to work and winter workouts, January, February, it was right there for us," Day said Sunday. "Coming off that game, we just didn't get over it in one day. It took time. "There was even a sign with the score posted in the Buckeyes' weight room , an honor usually reserved for rival Michigan. Ohio St threw a 'near-perfect game' at Clemson and my bet says the Buckeyes can't "do it again" vs Alabama, a team which can 'gain separation' VERY quickly against an opponent. Lay the points! Good luck...Larry |
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01-10-21 | Browns v. Steelers -3.5 | Top | 48-37 | Loss | -116 | 152 h 57 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Wild Card Game of the Year is on the Pit Steelers at 8:15 ET. The Cleveland Browns clinched a playoff spot for the first time since 2002 with a 24-22 win over the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers last Sunday. The 11-5 Browns snapped the NFL's longest current playoff drought, making the playoffs for the first time since 2002. RB Nick Chubb rushed for 108 yards and a touchdown, ending the season with 1,067 (5.6 YPC) with 12 TDs, despite playing in only 12 games. QB Baker Mayfield completed 17 of 27 passes for 196 yards and a TD and also rushed for a season-high 44 yards. Pittsburgh had clinched the AFC North and a playoff spot in Week 16, so they rested Ben Roethlisberger. Mason Rudolph got the start and completed 22 of 39 passes for 315 yards with two TDs and one INT. Now, one week later, the third-seeded Steelers and sixth-seeded Browns will "do it all over again" Sunday night in Pittsburgh. Mayfield had a promising rookie season but regressed in 2019, with 22 TDs and 21 INTs for a QB rating of just 78.8. However, he got better throughout the season and finished with 26 TDs and 8 INTs for a 95.9 QB rating in 2020. Chubb (see above) and Hunt (842 yards on 4.2 YPC with six TDs) have given Cleveland excellent balance, as Cleveland's running game comes in averaging 148.3 YPG on the ground (3rd-best). The Cleveland defense got slightly better as the season wore on but finished allowing 26.2 PPG (21st). The 38-year-old Ben Roethlisberger bounced back from elbow surgery a year ago to complete 65.6% for 3,803 yards with 33 TDs and only 10 INTs in 15 games. The running game ranks last in the NFL (84.4 YPG) but "Big Ben" has an OUTSTANDING group of receivers. Schuster-Smith leads with 97 catches (9 TDs) but fellow WRs like Johnson (88 catches / 7 TDs), Claypool (62 catches / 9 TDs) and Washington (just 30 catches but five TDs) give Big Ben a plethora of options. The offense has averaged just 334.6 YPG (25th) but has managed to average 26.0 PPG, 12th-best. However, defense remains Pittsburgh's 'calling card.' The Steelers' D enters having allowed 19.5 PPG (3rd) on 305.8 YPG (3rd). Pittsburgh's 56 sacks are No. 1 in the NFL. The Browns are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2002 but the franchise's last playoff win came way back in 1994! First-year Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski, whose leadership helped end Cleveland's playoff drought, must now 'watch from afar,' after testing positive for COVID. I guess no AFC team would want to draw the Chiefs as its first playoff opponent but for the Browns, the LAST team they wanted was to face the Steelers, in a one-week turnaround, playing in Pittsburgh with "Big Ben back at QB. Contests between the Browns and Steelers have always been heated given the teams' proximity and history but the Steelers have dominated this series dating back to 2004 (Big Ben's rookie year) with a 28-5-1 SU record! Cleveland's postseason return lasts ONE game. Lay the points! Good luck...Larry |
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01-10-21 | Ravens -3 v. Titans | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 95 h 41 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Bal Ravens at 1:05 ET. Baltimore was just 2-2 through the first four games of the 2019 season but the Ravens would win their final 12 games, covering NINE of their last 10. QB Lamar Jackson was league MVP, posting a 113.3 QB rating (36-6 ratio) while rushing for 1,206 yards (6.9 YPC / 7 TDs), which set a single-record for QBs. Baltimore set a single season record for team rushing yards and became the first team since at least 1950 to average 200-plus pass YPG (201.6) and 200-plus rush YPG (206) in the same season. The D was not quite in the class of the Ray Lewis era units but the Ravens ranked 3rd in points allowed (17.6 PPG) and 4th in yards allowed (300.6 YPG). However, the Ravens were unceremoniously bounced from the playoffs last season, losing 28-12 at home to the Titans as 10-point favorites. These teams met in Week 11 of the 2020 season (again in Baltimore) and even with that playoff revenge, the Ravens blew a 21-10 third-quarter lead in a 30-24 OT loss. The Ravens were just 6-5 after their Week 12 loss to Pittsburgh but would go on a 5-0 SU & ATS run to finish 11-5 and earn the AFC's No. 5 seed. The Titans battled the Indy Colts all season long for the AFC South title but clinched the division (via a tiebreaker) with a 41-38 win at Houston in Week 17. Derrick Henry rushed for a career-high 250 yards and became the eighth player in NFL history to eclipse 2,000 yards in a season, in Tennessee's Week 17 win, capped by Sam Sloman 37-yard FG on the final play (banked it in). QB Ryan Tannehill totaled three TDs. Lamar Jackson became the first QB in NFL history to rush for at least 1,000 yards in multiple seasons in Baltimore's 38-3 win at Cincinnati. Jackson rushed for 97 yards on 11 carries to give him 1,005 yards for the season. The Ravens finished with 404 rushing yards, which was the fourth most by a team since 1950. Baltimore didn't quite match last year's rushing record but the Ravens did lead the NFL with 191.9 YPG on 5.5 YPC. Mark Ingram topped 1,000-yards last season but this season was replaced by rookie Dobbins (805 yards on 6.0 YPC with nine TDs) and Edwards (723 yards on 5.0 YPC with five TDs). Baltimore's defense finished No. 2 in points allowed (18.9 PPG). Ryan Tannehill has had a career season by completing 65.5% for 3,819 yards with 33 TDs and seven INTs (106.5 QB rating). Henry had 2,027 yards rushing (5.4 YPC / 17 TDs), as the Titans finished second to Baltimore with 168.1 YPG on the ground. WRs Brown (70 catches / 15.4 YPC / 11 TDs) and Davis (65 catches / 15.1 YPC / 5 TDs) team with TEs Smith (41 catches / 8 TDs) and Firkser (39 catches). The Tennessee D is no match for Baltimore's, allowing 27.4 PPG (24th) on 398.3 YPG (28th). That's 8.5 PPG and about 70 YPG more. The Ravens closing 5-0 SU & ATS run saw them outscore opponents on average, 37.2-to-17.8 PPG. Lamar Jackson has 'flopped' badly in two playoff games and I have to believe the "THIRD" time will be the charm. Good luck...Larry |
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01-09-21 | Rams v. Seahawks -3.5 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Sea Seahawks at 4:40 ET. The 10-6 Rams (No. 6 seed) and the 12-4 Seahawks (No. 3 seed) meet for a third time this season in Seattle on Saturday The teams split their two meetings this season, with Los Angeles winning 23-16 on Nov 15 at home (Week 10), while the Seahawks 'returned the favor' with a 20-9 win in Seattle (Week 16). Los Angeles head coach Sean McVay was asked whether he had a timetable to determine his starting QB and replied, "Yeah," he said. "Saturday at 1:39."Jared Goff suffered a fractured right thumb in a 20-9 loss at Seattle on Dec.27 and had surgery the following day. John Wolford replaced Goff last weekend against Arizona, helping the Rams clinch a playoff berth with an 18-7 victory. Wolford completed 22 of 38 passes for 231 yards and rushed for a team-high 56 yards, becoming the first player in NFL history to throw for 200 and rush for 50 in their debut. Seattle has no QB concerns with Russell Wilson (4,212 yards / 40 TDs / 13 INTs). "Jared is our starting quarterback -- the reality is that he had a thumb surgery," McVay said. "We're monitoring that every single day, and that's something we're taking a day at a time, but the anticipation is both those guys are getting themselves ready to go." Along with Goff, LA's top rusher Cam Akers (625 yards) is questionable with an ankle injury and fellow RBs Henderson and Brown had done little for weeks. Some good news is that WR Kupp (92 catches) is expected to play after missing Week 17 (COVID) and along with Woods (90 catches) give LA a strong WR duo. TEs Higbee and Everett have combined for 85 catches with Higbee catching five TDs. Defense has been the key all season for the Rams, who ranks first in both scoring D (18.5 PPG) and total D (281.9 YPG). RB Chris Carson has been very solid the last six games with 358 yards on 4.8 YPC. He gives balance to a Seattle offense led by Wilson (see above) and the team's dynamic WR duo of Lockett (100 catches / 10 TDs) and Metcalf (83 catches / 10 TDs). Seattle opened 5-0 with Wilson and the offense overcoming the team's defensive woes. However, the Seahawks then lost THREE of four, before recovering with a 6-1 finish. Seattle's defense allowed 26.6 PPG over the first nine games of the season but in that 6-1 'finishing kick,' the 'Legion of Boom' moniker was applicable by allowing just 15.0 PPG! Seattle won the NFC West title for the first time since 2016 and will host a playoff game for the first time since since January 2017. If Goff plays, he can't possibly be anywhere near 100% and a Wolford/Wilson showdown is a "no-contest!" Good luck...Larry |
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01-03-21 | Packers -4 v. Bears | Top | 35-16 | Win | 100 | 22 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* "Granddaddy of the Them All' Rivalry G.O.Y. on the GB Packers at 4:25 ET. The Bears/Packers rivalry is the NFL's oldest, as two of the NFL's "Originals' meet for the 202nd time. Green Bay leads the series 100-95-6 but I'll have more to say about that a little later. The 12-3 Packers can clinch a first-round bye and the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a win or a tie against the Bears. The Packers can also get a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs if the 11-4 Seattle Seahawks lose or tie against the San Francisco 49ers. As for Chicago, 'Da Bears can clinch an NFC playoff berth with a win but there also are two other pathways for the Bears to secure a postseason spot. They need 8-7 Arizona to lose at the 9-6 Los Angeles Rams OR, if the Bears and Cardinals each finish Sunday's games with tie scores. Wouldn't that be some 'Daily Double?' Green Bay is on a five-game winning streak and Chicago on a three-game run. More on those streaks in a little bit, as well. The 37year-old Aaron Rodgers has put up MVP-caliber numbers, completing 70.3% for 4,059 passing yards with 44 TDs and only five INTs. He has a 119.4 QB rating, which leads the league and is the second-best of his HOF career (122.5 QB rating in 2011). RB Jones has 1,062 rushing yards (5.6 YPC / 8 TDs) plus 43 catches for two more TDs. WR Adams has missed two games but has 109 catches for 1.328 yards with 17 TDs plus TE Tonyan's 50 catches and 10 TDs is a big improvement from LY's starter, Jimmy Graham. This balanced offense leads the NFL in scoring 31.6 PPG. Mitchell Trubisky has played a key role in the late-season turnaround, after he was benched for veteran Nick Foles during a Week 3 game against the Atlanta Falcons. He reclaimed his starting job in Week 12 and has posted a 99.3 passer rating since then with 1,243 passing yards, 10 TDs and four INTs. Montgomery has run for 1,001 yards (4.4 YPC and 7 TDs) plus has 45 catches with another two TDs. WR Robinson has exactly 100 catches for 1,213 yards with six TDs and TE Jimmy Graham (remember that name?), has bounced back with a strong season, catching 48 passes for eight TDs. Neither defense is anything special, with Green Bay allowing 23.5 PPG and Chicago giving up 22.3. Let me deal with the two teams' streaks. Green Bay is 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS, although both ATS losses have come in games the Packers won by SEVEN and EIGHT points (would have covered both at this point spread. Much has been made of Trubisky's and Chicago's late run but the team's 3-0 SU & ATS streak has come over the Jags, losers of 14 straight, the Vikings, losers of three straight and SIX straight ATS and the 4-11 Texans, losers of FOUR in a row going 1-3 ATS with the lone ATS win coming by a half-point! As for recent head-to-head matchups, the Packers routed the Bears 41-25 at Lambeau in Week 12, as Rodgers threw four TDs (Bears led 41-10 entering the fourth quarter. The oldest rivalry in the NFL has been a rather one-sided affair in recent years, with Green Bay winning 18 of 21 against Chicago counting the postseason. As for games in which Rodgers has started, the Packers are 20-5 (again, including the playoffs). It's been rumored that Trubisky's future with the Bears is tied to Chicago beating Green Bay in this one. If that's true, it's time to "Hit the Road, Mitch!" Good luck...Larry |
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01-02-21 | Oregon v. Iowa State -3.5 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 73 h 17 m | Show |
My CFB 10* Game of the Year is on Iowa St at 4:00 ET. When the pandemic-delayed Pac-12 season started, Oregon (AP preseason No. 9) was a co-favorite with USC to reach the title game. Both schools were only able to play five games but while USC went 5-0 (with THREE "close calls''), Oregon finished 3-2, second in the Pac-12's North Division behind Washington (3-1). The Ducks were scheduled to play Washington at home on Dec 12 but a COVID-19 spike in the Huskies' program caused Washington to cancel that game. That left Oregon 'out in the cold,' with the Huskies set to play the Trojans. However, the COVID situation in Seattle did NOT improve, so lo and behold, the Ducks replaced the Huskies in the championship game. In less than a week, Oregon went from understudy to center stage. Oregon made the most of the opportunity by defeating host USC 31-24 for the championship. The victory gave Oregon (25th in both the AP and CFP) the Pac-12's automatic berth to a New Year's Six game. Waiting for them will be 8-3 Iowa State (No. 10 CFP / No. 12 AP) in the Fiesta Bowl on Jan 2 in Glendale, Ariz. The Cyclones lost their season opener at home to ULL but then won SEVEN of their next eight games, including a 37-30 home win over then-No. 18 Oklahoma and a 23-20 road win at then-No. 17 Texas (it was Iowa St's first win in Austin since 2010). The Cyclones have never won a championship in the Big 12 or their previous league, the Big Eight. Iowa State's last conference title came back in 1912 (MVC). Iowa State made its first-ever appearance in the Big 12 championship game on Dec 19 but couldn't beat Oklahoma second time, falling 27-21. This is Mario Cristobal's third season at Oregon, having led the Ducks to back-to-back bowls while going 9-4 and 12-2. Despite losing QB Herbert to the NFL, the Ducks' current QB Tyler Shough has been a solid replacement, passing for 1,480 yards with 13 TDs and five INTs plus running for 263 yards on 4.2 YPC and two TDs. RB Dye has a team-high 391 yards on 7.0 YPC plus his eight receptions have averaged 27.6 YPC with four TDs. Fellow RB Verdell was coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons but has just 285 yards on 4.4 YPC with three TDs. A trio of WRs have combined for 50 catches and just five TDs. Oregon is averaging 33.7 PPG (30th) but allowing 27.3 PPG (55th) on 409.5 YPG (67th). Iowa St QB Purdy entered 2020 off a 2019 season in which he accounted for 35 TDs (27 passing / 8 rushing) and has completed 66.4% for 2,594 yards with 18 TDs and nine INTs (added four rushing TDs). Speaking of running the football, Breece Hall leads the nation with 1,436 rushing yards (5.9 YPC) and with 19 rushing TDs. WR Hutchinson leads with 60 catches (4 TDs) and TE Kolar has 39 catches with a team-high six TD receptions. Iowa St averaged 32.8 PPG (36th) on 449.1 YPG (26th), which works just fine with a defense allowing 21.8 PPG on 344.3 YPG (ranks 29th in both categories. Defensively, the Ducks are allowing 28.0 PPG. Iowa St's early upset by ULL was fueled by a 95 KO return TD and a 78-yard TD pass. The Iowa St defense held ULL to just 277 yards for the game, 78 of which came on that TD pass. The Cyclones' other two losses were 24-21 at then-No. 6 Oklahoma St and then 27-21 vs Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game, when Purdy threw THREE interceptions! I'm not sure a top Pac 12 team is anywhere near in the class of a top Big 12 team and believe Iowa St will demonstrate just that in this contest. Head coach Matt Campbell was 34-15 at Toledo with four bowl appearances and after a 3-9 first season (2016) in Ames, has now led the Cyclones to a FOURTH straight bowl. The Cyclones were not able to win that elusive conference championship but how about capping off the season with a win in the school's first-ever appearance in a New Year's Six Bowl! That's my bet. You in? I guess if you're reading this, you are! Good luck...Larry |
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01-02-21 | Kentucky v. NC State +3 | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on NC State at 12:00 ET. Both teams in Saturday's Gator bowl won their final games of the 2020 regular season on Dec 5, as Kentucky won 41-18 at home over a 2-8 South Carolina team, while NC State beat Ga Tech in Raleigh 23-13. However, that's where all similarity to their respective 2020 seasons ends. Mark Stoops got the head job at Kentucky back in 2013 but went just 12-25 in his first three seasons. However, Kentucky entered this season off FOUR straight bowl seasons. Yes, Stoops and the Wildcats are in a FIFTH straight bowl this season but don't forget, Kentucky is just 4-6. Dave Doeren is in his 8th season at NC State and after a 3-9 'rookie' year,' led the Wolfpack to FIVE straight winning seasons and bowl berths (3-2), before the Wolfpack slipped to 4-8 in 2019. NC St was picked to finish 11th in the ACC's preseason poll but enter this game 8-3 Kentucky opened 2-2, beating Miss St 24-2 and winning at Tennessee but its only two wins in its last six games came against 0-9 Vandy and 2-8 South Carolina, which played without its head coach and several key starters. QB Trey Wilson threw for just 1,095 yards in 10 games, as Kentucky ranks 121st with 124.1 YPG passing. WR Ali has 49 catches but averages a puny 9.4 YPC with just one TD. No other player has caught more than 14 passes. RBs Rodriguez (701 yards on 6.9 YPC and 9 TDs) and Rose (518 yards on 5.5 YPC and 2 TDs) join QB Wilson (410 yards and five TDs) to give the Wildcats a good ground game (almost 180 YPG). However, Kentucky is averaging just 21.7 PPG (107th). In comparison, the NC State offense is averaging 31.1 PPG (45th), just shy of 10 PPG more than Kentucky. Last year's starting QB Leary began the season with some COVID issues and when he got back on the field, suffered a broken leg in mid-October. Bailey Hockman has taken over and has accounted for 14 touchdowns and thrown just five interceptions in seven games since replacing Leary against Duke. After a 44-41 home OT loss to Miami, NC St finished 4-0 with Hockman throwing seven TDs and three INTs. He has two good RBs to provide balance in Knight (736 yards on 5.6 YPC with nine TDs) and Person (635 yards on 4.5 YPC with four TDs). WRs Emezie, Thomas and Carter have a combined 102 catches with 13 TDs plus TE Angeline has 27 catches and six TDs. I guess the fact that Kentucky plays in the SEC and NC State in the ACC is the reason the Wildcats are favored but I "just don't get it!" The Wildcats have the second-worst offense in the Power Five, lost to SEC finalists Alabama and Florida by a combined score of 97-13 and have two wins in the past 11 weeks against teams that went a combined 2-17). North Carolina' strong finish moved them into the top-25 at No. 23 in the CFP rankings and No. 24 in the AP. Back to Kentucky, it's 0-3 vs ranked teams this season (Ala, Fla & Ga), scoring a total of just 16 points. Now I'm NOT putting NC St in a class with those SEC powerhouses but just how do the Wolfpack rate as an underdog to this Kentucky team. The Wolfpack's four consecutive victories is the team's best such stretch to end a regular season since 2008. How about FIVE in a row? I think so! Good luck...Larry |
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01-01-21 | Ohio State +7.5 v. Clemson | Top | 49-28 | Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* Sugar Bowl play (The Rematch) is on Ohio St at 8:00 ET. Ohio St led 16-0 through the first 25 minutes of last season's semi final against Clemson, but Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence and RB Travis Etienne led a comeback that put the Tigers up 29-23. The Buckeyes drove to the Tigers' 23 with a chance to potentially win the game but Justin Fields was intercepted in the end zone with 37 seconds left in the game. Lawrence had 259 passing yards and a touchdown plus 107 yards and a rushing TD, while Etienne had 134 all-purpose yards and three TDs. According to Ohio St head coach Ryan Day, that loss has reverberated for nearly a year among the Buckeyes. "Fresh off of that game, it was right on our minds, and something that when we got back to work and winter workouts, January, February, it was right there for us," Day said Sunday. "Coming off that game, we just didn't get over it in one day. It took time. "There was even a sign with the score posted in the Buckeyes' weight room , an honor usually reserved for rival Michigan. The Big Ten decided to postpone its season on August 11, while the ACC said 'full steam ahead.' The Big Ten eventually reversed course and returned in late October but was left with a 'short' season and no margin for error. The Buckeyes were unable to play the six games they needed to be eligible but NATURALLY, the Big Ten changed that rule and Ohio St won a unimpressive 22-10 victory over Northwestern in the Big Ten title game. However, if you had paid attention to the CFP committee throughout the weekly ranking process, there was NO way the Buckeyes were NOT making the 'Final 4.' Leave it to Dabo to defend the 'honor' of the ACC and SEC. Swinney said he felt the six-game resume of Ohio State put the Buckeyes on a different playing field than many of the other contenders. Swinney backed up his feelings by ranking the Buckeyes No. 11 in the final coaches' poll of the season. In his own words. "I think any time you step in between the lines, the game of football, there's a lot that can happen. A lot," Swinney said. "I mean, heck, in 2017, we lost to a three-win or four-win Syracuse team and still went to the playoffs. So anything can happen. Guys can get hurt. There's a lot. So I think the fact that we're going to have 11 games as well as the SEC teams -- I mean, you look at Florida and Texas A&M and Alabama. I mean, these teams are going to have 11 games this year. It's incredible and I think the Big Ten had the same opportunity and they chose not to play, and I think the only reason they ended up playing is because of the leadership of the SEC and the ACC and the Big 12, and have demonstrated that we can do it and do it in a safe way. So it's been an unbelievably challenging season, that's for sure. Enough said. ALL of what Swinney said is true but I can't see how ranking Ohio St No. 11 helps his team. Lawrence's record speaks for itself (34-1 as a starter) but after throwing 66 TDs and just 16 INTs in his first two seasons, his ratio was 22-7 in 2020 (missed two games). Also, what's up with Etienne? He ran for more than 1,600 yards in each of the previous two seasons but had just 882 yards in 2020. Ohio State's Justin Fields has completed 72.6% for 1,521 with 15 TDs and five INTs in six games plus RBs Sermon (675 yards on 8.0 YPC) and Teague (449 yards on 5.0 YPC) give Ohio St plenty of offensive balance. Looking strictly at the numbers, Ohio St and Clemson are clones. Ohio St averages 44.9 PPG (Clemson 42.5) and allows 17.5 PPG (Clemson 21.0). That said, Clemson has played the tougher AND more challenging schedule (11 games to six) and one HAS to admit that Fields' worst two games came against Ohio St's toughest opponents, Indiana and Northwestern. I've never been one to pay too much attention to "bulletin board" motivation like Dabo ranking Ohio St 11th but Ohio St has waited an entire year for a rematch with Clemson and couldn't possibly have more to prove in this game. I will GLADLY take the points! Good luck...Larry |
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01-01-21 | Cincinnati v. Georgia -6.5 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -112 | 24 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Eye Opener is on Georgia at 12:00 ET. Cincinnati won the American Athletic Conference championship game in a squeaker (27-24 over Tulsa), to finish the regular season 9-0. After Notre Dame was soundly defeated by Clemson in the Atlantic Coast Conference championship game, there was talk that maybe the Bearcats were deserving of finishing among the top -our teams in the CFP. The 9-0 Bearcats finished No. 8. 10-1 Notre Dame (No. 4) and 8-1 Texas A&M (No. 5) finishing ahead of Cincy was not really a surprise but when the Bearcats also fell behind 8-2 Oklahoma (No. 6) and 8-3 Florida (No. 7) it became clear that the committee NEVER considered them a 'Final 4' option. As the top-ranked Group of 5 school, Cincy got a New Year's Six Bowl bid to the Peach Bowl, where it will meet a 7-2 Georgia team that finished No. 9 in the final rankings. Georgia was the AP's preseason No. 4 team but the Bulldogs lost BADLY in both of their "biggest" tests in 2020, losing 41-24 at Alabama and 44-28 in Jacksonville to Florida. Yes, the Bearcats enter the game with a 'chip on their shoulders,' but DON'T make the mistake of thinking Georgia DOESN'T have anything to play for (prove) in this game. The Bearcats are led by QB Desmond Ridder, the AAC offensive player of the year. He's completing 66.4% for 2,090 passing yards, with 17 TDs and six INTs. He has also rushed for 609 yards (7.2 YPC) and a team-high 12 scores. Gerrid Doaks has rushed for a team-high 673 yards (4.7 YPC / 7 TDs), as the Bearcats rank 14th with 225.0 YPG on the ground. The offense has averaged 39.3 PPG (15th) but it's Cincy's defense which is the standout unit. The Bearcats allow 16.0 PPG (8th) on 314.4 YPG (13th). Speaking of defense, most pundits claimed Georgia owned the nation's finest defense as the 2020 season got underway. However, as noted above, that defense was NOT able to contain either Alabama (41 points) or Florida (44 points) but this just in, those are two SPECTACULAR offensive teams. Including those two poor efforts, Georgia finished the regular season allowing 19.9 PPG (21st) on 322.8 YPFG (15th). Georgia expected Wake Forest transfer Jamie Newman would lead the offense in 2020 but he opted out prior to the start of the year. JT Daniels (a USC transfer) was coming off an injury and his rehab plus COVID issues kept him on the sidelines until late in the season. However, he's led Georgia to THREE straight wins, throwing for 839 yards with nine TDs and just one INT (Bulldogs averaged 41.6 PPG in that span). I'm a big fan of Cincy head coach Luke Fickell who said this about playing in a New Year's six Bowl game, "It's huge for our program. If you want to claim you deserve an opportunity or a shot, this is an opportunity, this is a shot." However, this is the FIFTH consecutive year under head coach Kirby Smart that the Bulldogs will play in a New Year's Six Bowl or the CFP. "I'll be honest, when your intention is to win the game, that's not going to change between his guys and your guys," Smart said. "Every coach is going to try to find an angle that gives their guys an edge or competitive advantage, whether that's them being ranked ahead of us or whatever. I don't know Group of Five, Power 5, all those languages, that's for (media). My language is football, and they've got a good team. They haven't been beaten." Here's the bottom line. I don't believe Cincy is a top-10 team. One can say the Bearcats beat three ranked teams this season but that trio is comprised of Army, SMU and Tulsa. That's not exactly a 'Murderer's Row" of football powers. Getting back to the Georgia defense, taking away the Alabama and Florida games, it allowed 13 PPG on 253 YPG. Including all foes, Georgia led the nation in allowing just 69.3 YPPG on 2.3 YPC. If Ridder and the Cincy offense can't establish the run, the Bearcats will be in for L-O-N-G day. That's my bet. Lay it. Good luck...Larry |
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12-29-20 | Oklahoma State v. Miami-FL +2.5 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -105 | 47 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" 37-Club Play is on Miami-Fl at 5:30 ET. The 7-3 Oklahoma State Cowboys take on the 8-2 Miami Hurricanes in the Cheez-It Bowl on Dec 29 in Orlando, Fl. OSU is ranked 21st in the CFP rankings but is unranked in the AP, after opening the season 15th in the preseason poll. Miami was NOT ranked in the AP's preseason poll (coming off a 6-7 season, including an 'ugly' 14-0 bowl loss to La Tech) but enters the game ranked 18th in both the AP and CFP. I've believed all season that Oklahoma St has been overrated. Mike Gundy always gets the Cowboys into a bowl game (this marks the 15th straight bowl appearance for OSU under Gundy) but there's been a slippage in his offense the last two seasons. OSU averaged 39.5 PPG in 2015, 38.6 PPG in 2016, 45.0 PPG in 2017 and 38.4 PPG in 2018. The 2019 season saw OSU average 32.5 PPG, despite RB Chuba Hubbard rushing for 2,094 yards (6.4 YPC) and 21 TDs. He was a unanimous All-America selection last season but he's looked disinterested all season (just 625 yards on 4.7 PPC with 5 TDs!) and decided to opt out earlier this month to prepare for the NFL draft (which 'lucky' team will land this gem?). OSU's offense fell under 30 PPG in 2020 (29.5), led by the overrated Spencer Sanders. He's thrown for a modest 1,702 yards with a TD/INT ratio of just 10-8. He's rushed for 244 yards with only two TDs. He's a two-year starter who has 19 INTs in 19 games! Just what am I missing? Lining up opposite Sanders is a true dual-threat QB in Miami's D'Eriq King, who has passed for 2,573 yards with 22 TDs and just five interceptions, while rushing for 520 yards (4.3 YPC) and four TDs. Miami recently received some great news in that King announced that he will return for his 6th season of college football with the 'Canes. WR Mike Harley (49 catches / 14.9 YPC / 6 TDs) is King's biggest playmaker plus TEs Brevin Jordan and Will Mallory (both considered NFL prospects) have combined for 48 catches and nine TDs. Oklahoma State's defense is allowing 22.4 PPG (32nd) but in its three losses, gave up 41 points to both Texas and Oklahoma and 29 points to TCU and in a win over Texas Tech (a 4-6 team), allowed 44 points. Miami got some bad news when both star DEs, Jaelan Phillips and Quincy Roche, said they were skipping the bowl game to prepare for the draft. Miami gave up 104 points in its losses to Clemson and North Carolina, two of the nation's most prolific offenses. However, in Miami's eight wins, the 'Canes allowed just 19.5 PPG. I'm pretty confident that Sanders has NOTHING in common with Clemson's Lawrence (22-4 ratio and 7 rush TDs) or North Carolina's Howell (27-6 ratio and 5 TDs). In last season's Independence Bowl, Miami lost 14-0 to La Tech, becoming the first Power 5 school to be shut out by a Group of 5 school in a bowl game since the BCS/CFP era began in 1998. If Miami needs more motivation, how about bouncing back from its season-ending 66-26 loss to North Carolina (at home, no less). UNC gained 778 yards of total offense, the most yards Miami has ever allowed. RBs Michael Carter and Javonte Williams combined for 544 rushing yards, the most combined rushing yards by two teammates in FBS history, and five TDs. Miami wins this HANDILY! Good luck...Larry |
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12-27-20 | Titans v. Packers -2.5 | Top | 14-40 | Win | 100 | 31 h 9 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic play is on the GB Packers at 8:20 ET. The 10-4 Tennessee Titans visit the 11-3 Green Bay Packers for a SNF matchup of first-place teams that pit the NFL's first- and third-ranked scoring offenses. Tennessee leads the league at 31.1 PPG and Green Bay is 'FAR' behind at 31.0. The Titans are tied with Indianapolis atop the AFC South (but hold the tiebreaker) plus will know well before they take the field if the Colts won or lost at Pittsburgh. As for the Packers, they already know the Saints moved to 11-4 with their rout of the Vikings on Christmas (Packers hold the head-to-head tiebreaker with New Orleans) plus will also know just before kickoff the result of the Rams/Seahawks contest. If the Rams win, Green Bay will clinch the NFC's No. 1 seed by beating the Titans. The Titans made a run to the AFC championship game last season on the 'legs' of Derrick Henry and the "game management" skills of QB Ryan Tannehill. Henry's 'legs' remain as good as ever, as he leads the NFL with 1,679 rushing yards on 5.2 YPC with 15 TDs. What's been different on offense for Tennessee in 2020 has been the play of Tannehill. He's having a "career season," completing 66.5% for 3,482 yards with 31 TDs and just five INTs (QB rating is 110.4). The team's improved offense has made up for the Tennessee D allowing 25.8 PPG (up from 20.7 and 18.9 the previous two seasons) on 390.5 YPPG, which ranks 26th (about 45 YPG more than in 2019), Green Bay's defense is allowing 24.2 PPG (14th) but just 337.7 YPG (8th). However, the Packers are counting on Aaron Rodgers and the offense to 'win the day!' Rodgers has completed 69.6% for 3,828 yards with 40 TDs and just four INTs, giving him an NFL-best QB rating of 118.0. It's just another 'ho-hum' season for the future Hall of Famer. WR Adams believes he ranks with the best in the business and may be right, with 98 catches for 15 TDs despite missing two games. TE Tonyan has 49 catches and 10 TDs. Aaron Jones is one of the league's better all-purpose backs, rushing for 968 yards on 5.4 YPC with 8 TDs plus catching 41 passes for another four TDs. Since losing 34-17 at home to the Colts in Week 10, the Titans have won FOUR of five, averaging 37.4 PPG. The Titans and Packers have each committed a league-low NINE turnovers but the Packers haven't committed a turnover in their last FOUR games (Green Bay is 10-0 when it doesn't have a turnover!). The Packers are 13-2 SU at Lambeau field since the start of the 2019 season (7-1 LY / 6-1 TY) and REALLY want that No. 1 seed. "The Pack" can't control what Seattle does vs the Rams but they can "take care of business" here, in their final regular season game of 2020. That's the bet! Good luck...Larry |
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12-27-20 | Rams v. Seahawks | Top | 9-20 | Win | 100 | 23 h 31 m | Show |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error Game of the Month is on the Sea Seahawks at 4:25 ET. How does one explain the Rams losing 23-20 at home last Sunday to the 0-13 NY Jets (as a 17 1/2-point favorite) when they had a chance to clinch a playoff berth with a win??? Were the Rams "looking ahead" to this game in Seattle with the Seahawks? "The only thing that makes you feel better is when you say, ‘All right, let's learn from it, let's own it, and let's move forward accordingly,'" Rams head coach Sean McVay said. "Because dwelling on it or getting still (ticked) off about it really doesn't do you any good for how you move forward." Here's the bottom line. The Rams won the first meeting against Seattle 23-16 back on Nov 15 in LA, as Jared Goff threw for 302 yards and Malcolm Brown rushed for a pair of TDs. That means the Rams would own the first tiebreaker against the Seahawks should they win Sunday to sweep the season series and go into the final week with matching 10-5 records. Speaking of clinching a playoff spot, the Seahawks did just that, holding on for a 20-15 win at Washington, in a game that was NOT as close as the final. Seattle has now clinched its NINTH playoff berth in head coach Pete Carroll's 11 seasons. "(That) was a really big weekend for us," Carroll said. "Real happy with the game that we put together, the way that the whole approach of it worked out well. We got the win that we were looking for and we got a little bit of help too, the Jets, getting their game. All of that adds together and sets up a really big opportunity this weekend coming up." Jared Goff has had a solid if unspectacular season, completing 68.0% for 3,718 yards with 20 TDs and 12 INTs. He has an excellent WR duo in Kupp (84 catches) and Woods (82) plus TEs Higbee and Everett have a combined 75 receptions (Higbee has 5 TD catches). The running game has NOT missed Gurley but the Rams will be without leading rusher Cam Akers (591 yards on 4.8 YPC), who suffered a high ankle sprain in the loss to New York. LA's in playoff position and has a chance to capture the NFC West because of its defense. The Rams allow just 19.2 PPG (3rd) on 286.1 YPG (1st). LA ranks first in allowing 192.0 YPG through the air and 2nd in allowing just 94.1 YPG on the ground. To win in Seattle, LA will need a great game from its defense. Seattle jumped out to the best record in the NFC early on, then had a midseason swoon but back-to-back wnsn have them back on the cusp of winning the NFC West. QB Russell was near-perfect early on but then 'cooled off' but what is one's definition of cooling off? With two weeks to go, he's completed 70.2% for 3,806 yards with 37 TDs and 13 TDs plus has run for 475 yards on 6.3 YPC. He's got a terrific trio of WRs in Lockett (85 catches with 8 TDs), Metcalf (74 catches and 10 TDs) and Moore (33 catches / 6 TDs). As Carson (568 yards on 5.0 YCPC with 5 TDs / 32 catches with 5 TDs) has regained his health, the Seattle running game is again very good. Speaking of defense, Seattle allowed 30.4 PPG through its first eight games but has allowed just 16.0 PPG (that two TDs less per game!) over its last six. CenturyLink Field has been easily one of the toughest home venues in the NFL and even with COVID restrictions taking away Seattle's "12th man" in 2020, the Seahawks are 6-1 SU at home this season. This contest is their final home game of the regular season and the Seahawks aren't just satisfied with a playoff berth (which they clinched last Sunday), as they haven't won an NFC West title since 2016 and haven't hosted a playoff game since January 2017. A win here (no pointspread to worry about) will give them the NFC West title and at least ONE home game in the postseason! "The Price is Sure Right" on the Seahawks. Good luck...Larry |
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12-27-20 | Colts v. Steelers +2 | Top | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 80 h 59 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Game of the Year is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET. "Once upon a time" Pittsburgh was 11-0 and had some wondering that just maybe, the Steelers had a chance at a 16-0 regular season. However, the 'dream' ended in "unlucky" Week 13 at home vs Washington, 23-17. Now, after back-to-back losses at Buffalo and Cincinnati, Pittsburgh's 'dream season' is on the verge of turning into a 'nightmare!' The Steelers have fallen two games back of the Chiefs for the AFC's No. 1 and currently loses a tiebreaker with the 11-3 Bills for the No. 2 seed. A loss here to the Colts and Pittsburgh could wind up with the No. 4 seed. The Colts are tied with the Tennessee Titans at 10-4 but Tennessee holds the tiebreaker, meaning the Colts have slipped to the No. 6 seed, as they also lose a tiebreaker to the 10-4 Browns. Indy can't afford a slip up either, as both the Dolphins (current No. 7 seed) and Ravens are both 9-5. Yes, there is plenty on the line in this game. While the Steelers have clinched a spot in the playoffs despite three straight losses, the Colts are surging, having won three in a row, as well as FIVE of six. Philip Rivers has delivered for Indy, as the team's major offseason FA signee has thrown for 3,753 (he'll top 4,000 yards for the EIGHTH straight season and 12th in his last 13) with 22 TDs and nine INTs. Rookie RB Taylor looked like a bust with just 428 rushing yards through his first nine games but he's averaged 103.5 YPG on 5.8 YPC over his last four (team is 4-0). Indy's defense checks in allowing 22.9 PPG (11th) on 334.1 YPG (7th) but I'll look a little closer into those numbers in my 'close!' The 'wolves' are out after "Big Ben," as he's taken most of the blame for Pittsburgh's slump. It's fair to say he cannot throw the deep ball anymore but he does enter this game with 3,462 passing yards with 30 TDs and 10 INTs on the season. He's got excellent depth in his WR corps, with Smith-Schuster catching 82 balls with 7 TDs, Johnson catching 77 with 6 TDs, rookie Claypool catching 53 with 8 TDs and Washington catching 28 with 5 TDs. TE Ebron has 51 catches but did miss practice (back) mid-week. However, RB Connor (663 yards on 4.3 YPC) did practice and should play. Snell (384 yards) filled in last week and had 84 yards, so while Connor's return would be nice, it's NOT a game-changer. I believe the key is Pittsburgh defense. First let me go back for a 'peek inside' Indy's numbers. The Colts allowed just 14.0 PPG through their first four but their defense has been VERY mediocre since, allowing 26.4 PPG over its last 10 games. Pittsburgh's offensive woes are real, as the Steelers have averaged just 16.3 PPG in their three-game slide (also scored just 19 points vs a COVID-ravaged Baltimore team the week before the slide began) and "Big Ben" has averaged 178.5 YPG passing the last two games with three TDs and three TDs. However, the Pittsburgh defense has been at the top or right near it week after week. Pittsburgh currently ranks second in points allowed (18.9 per) and second in total D (297.9 YPG), while Its pass D also ranks second (193.3 YPG) and its rush D ranks 8th (104.6 YPG) The game may be played without snow but it's going be VERY cold in Pittsburgh Friday and Saturday and Sunday's forecast doesn't expect temps to be much above freezing (good old-fashioned Steeler weather). Does it mean "all that much" that Pittsburgh has won SIX straight over Indy (5-1 ATS with a MOV of 14 points)? Maybe not, but it sure doesn't 'scare me away' from my Pittsburgh play! Good luck...Larry |
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12-26-20 | Liberty +7 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* Bowl Rivalry Game of the Year is on Liberty at 7:30 ET. The Liberty Flames have posted their best regular season in school history (9-1) and look to finish with a second consecutive bowl win against Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers have made history this year as well, completing the first unbeaten regular season in school and SBC history (8-0). These two both played in the Big South Conference (FCS) and have split their 14 meetings. The teams were scheduled to play on Dec 5 but the game was canceled due to COVID-19 protocols and precautions in the Flames' program. The Flames beat Georgia Southern in last year's Cure Bowl and were the third FBS team to win a bowl in their first season at the top level. As for Coastal Carolina, the Chanticleers will make their first bowl appearance in school history. Hugh Freeze's Flames are led by QB Malik Willis, who has thrown for 2,040 yards with 20 TDs and just four INTs. He has added 807 yards rushing (tops on the team), averaging 6.7 YPC with 10 more TDs. A trio of RBs have combined for 1,628 rushing yards and 13 TDs, as the team ranks 8th with 252.2 YPG on the ground (5.7 YPC). A trio of WRs have caught 82 passes, averaged 14.4 YPC and have 10 TD receptions. The offense is averaging 38.3 PG (17th) and the defense allows 19.2 PPG (17th) on 301.2 YPG (7th). What a job Jamey Chadwell has done in just his third season (Chanticleers were 3-9 and 5-7 in his first two). Coastal has dual-threat QB as well in redshirt freshman Grayson McCall, who ranks 36th nationally in total offense with 2,643 yards. He's thrown for 2,170 yards (23 TDs / 2 INTs) and run for 473 yards (4.9 YPC / 6 TDs). RB Marable hasn't quite matched last season's numbers but has run for 84 yards on 5.2 YPC with 12 TDs (has 30 catches from another 7 TDs). Coastal runs for 22.32 YPG (15th). WR Heilegh (52 catches / 15.8 YPC 10 TDs) and TE Likely (25 catches / 20.7 YPC / 4 TDs) are McCall's main guys. The offense averages 37.5 PPG (18th) and the defense gives up 18.7 PPG (15th) on 340.7 YPG (26th). Go back and check at the two teams' offense and defensive numbers and you'll see mirror images. Liberty's only loss came 15-14 at NC St, when it had a 39-yard field goal attempt blocked with 1:18 remaining in the game. Liberty is 8-2 ATS on the season and enters on a SEVEN-game ATS winning streak. Coastal Carolina is 8-2-1 ATS so again, it's hard to find too much difference in the teams. It was Liberty with the COVID-related problems that caused the Dec 5 to be canceled and the Flames haven't played since a 45-0 shutout of UMass on Nov 27. However, it was Coastal with the COVID issue which canceled its SBC championship game vs ULL on Dec 19, less than 48 hours before the scheduled kickoff. Chadwell said players in quarantine could be cleared by midweek prior to the bowl. We will see. These old Big South rivals should go toe-to-toe here and I want the points. Good luck...Larry |
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12-26-20 | 49ers v. Cardinals -4.5 | Top | 20-12 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Arz Cardinals at 4:30 ET. Much has changed since Arizona upset San Francisco 24-20 back in Week 1 of the 2020 season. The 49ers entered that game as the defending NFC champs (off a 13-3 regular season), while Arizona was coming off a 5-10-1 season but was looking forward to "what could be" with Kyler Murray coming off an impressive rookie season. However, as the teams get together for a rematch in Week 16, the 5-9 Niners are coming off a 41-33 loss to the Cowboys, a defeat that officially ended the team's postseason hopes. Meanwhile, the Cards beat the Eagles 33-26 last Sunday to get 8-6 and into the No. 7 seed in the NFC (final playoff spot). A final twist to this game is that BOTH teams will be playing on the State Farm Stadium field for the THIRD time in the last four weeks, as the 49ers have been forced to relocate from Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Ca, because of COVID-19 restrictions in the region. The 49ers have lost their first two 'home' games in Arizona, falling 34-24 in Week 13 to Buffalo 34-24 and then a week later 23-15 to Washington 23-15 The 49ers lost more than just a game that eliminated them from playoff contention against Dallas. The team's best (only?) RB Raheem Mostert has been ruled out for the season after aggravating a high ankle sprain in the loss, while QB Nick Mullens suffered an elbow injury that the 49ers fear could require Tommy John surgery. Mullens was not playing all that well in place of Jimmy G (12 TDs / 12 INTs) but with Garoppolo unlikely to get medical clearance to return to game action either this week or in the finale against Seattle (per head coach Kyle Shanahan), the last man standing appears to be C.J. Beathard. What's more, the San Francisco defense, which was so much a part of last season's run to the Super Bowl, has been riddled with injuries throughout the season and enters this contest having allowed 32.7 PPG during its recent three-game slide. The Cardinals will take the field in third-place in the NFC West, two games behind Seattle (10-4) and one back of the Los Angeles Rams (9-5). The Rams are at Seattle this Sunday and if the Cards win, they would be just ONE game back of both teams if the Rams win or be tied with the Rams if they lose, going into their matchup in LA in Week 17. Best case scenario for the Cards would be a win and a Chicago loss at Jacksonville, which would clinch a playoff spot. However, the Jags are on a 13-game losing streak. Then again, so were the Jets until last week. Murray threw for a season-best 406 yards and three TDs in last week's home win over Philadelphia. He's thrown for 3,637 yards with 26 TDs and 11 TDs in 2020, while adding 741 rushing yards (6.0 YPC) with 11 TDs. RB Drake leads the team with 874 yards on 4.1 YPC (9 TDs), as the Cards rank 4th in the league averaging 147.8 YPG on the ground. WR Hopkins ranks with the best in the NFL, hauling in 103 passes with six TDs. The Cards D has struggled at times but overall, comes in allowing 23.5 PPG on the season (13th). I'm assuming the 49ers won't take a chance on Jimmy G but if they do, he couldn't possibly be "ready for primetime." It's likely Beathard will start or maybe even Josh Rosen, who the Niners claimed off the Tampa Bay practice squad to serve as Beathard's backup (Can I vote for Rosen?). Murray should have little trouble against a San Francisco defense that gave up 41 points without forcing a TO against an Andy Dalton-led Dallas team. Meanwhile, the 49ers coughed it up FOUR times, giving them 29 giveaways and a minus-11 TO margin on the season (both rank 2nd-worst in the NFL next to the Broncos). The Cards win with ease and depending how a few other games turn out Sunday, should be in excellent shape for an important Week 17 game, as well as a wild card game the following weekend. Good luck...Larry |
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12-23-20 | Florida Atlantic +9 v. Memphis | Top | 10-25 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
My CFB 9* Late-Breaker (Montgomery Bowl) is on FAU at 7:00 ET. The Montgomery Bowl (7-3 Memphis vs 5-3 FAU) was created after the cancellation of the Fenway Bowl. Memphis was 12-1 when it made a New Year's Six bowl appearance in last year's Cotton Bowl. The Tigers 'hung around' but eventually lost 53-39 to Penn St. Memphis will set a school record by playing in a bowl game for the seventh straight year. This Montgomery Bowl appearance vs FAU may feel like a 'step down' for Memphis but as I will allude to a bit later, the Tigers are desperate for a bowl win. This is the third bowl game in four years for the Owls and fifth since 2007. It's their first bowl outside Florida since 2008. The Tigers are led by QB Brady White, who is capping a terrific career. He's thrown for 3,096 yards with 28 TDs and nine INTs in 2020, following seasons of 4,014 yards with 33 TDs and 11 INTs in 2019 and 3,296 yards with 26 TDs and nine INTs in 2018. His "go-to" guy is WR Austin (60 catches / 17.1 YPC / 10 TDs), although the running game is fairly mediocre, averaging 142.0 YPG (85th). The defense has been a liability all season, allowing 29.7 PPG (contributing to the team's 3-7 ATS record). FAU has a non-existent passing game (143.6 YPG ranks 117th) but a solid running game which averages 185.3 YPG (47th). However, the Owls own a solid defense, allowing 16.5 PPG (9th) on 326.4 YPG. Containing White will be a key for FAU and its pass D comes in allowing 175.6 YPG (12th in the nation). As noted above, Memphis NEEDS a bowl win, as the Tigers haven't gotten one since a double-overtime victory over BYU in the 2014 Miami Beach Bowl. That's not all, as a check of the record book reveals that Memphis is on a 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS run in its last eight conference championship or bowl games. Meanwhile, FAU is 6-0 SU & ATS in similar contests. I'm taking the BIG points! Good luck...Larry |
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12-23-20 | Georgia Southern v. Louisiana Tech +6.5 | Top | 38-3 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 19 m | Show |
My CFB 10* New Orleans Bowl play is on La Tech at 3:00 ET. 7-5 Georgia Southern of the SBC will take on 5-4 Louisiana Tech of C-USA in Wednesday's New Orleans Bowl at the Superdome. This will be Georgia Southern's FOURTH bowl since moving up from the Football Championship Subdivision in 2014. The Eagles won postseason games in 2015 and 2018 before falling last year 23-16 to Liberty in the Cure Bowl. As for La Tech, securing a winning record for 2020 plus keeping its bowl streak alive, are on the line for the Bulldogs. How many are aware that Louisiana Tech's SIX-game bowl winning streak is the longest active mark for ANY team in the country. Both teams come in with questions surrounding their QB situation. Shai Werts was the regular Georgia Southern QB for 10 games, but he missed the last two games with a shoulder injury. Justin Tomlin has started the last two but he departed the Dec 12 regular-season finale against Appalachian State with a second-quarter injury after rushing for 76 yards in the game. Miller Mosley, who's considered the team's third-string QB, threw for a touchdown and two interceptions after replacing Tomlin. Werts has accounted for 1,575 yards and 15 TDs from scrimmage and leads the Eagles in rushing with 649 yards, as Georgia Southern ranks 7th in the nation averaging 262.4 YPG. That shoulder injury has sidelined him for the team's last two games, but he has returned to practice and could play in the bowl game. Georgia Southern's defense is solid, allowing 22.3 PPG (31st) on 333.5 YPG (19th). La Tech reached 10 wins in 2019 for the first time since 1983 but KNEW it would miss QB J'Mar Smith, who threw for 2,977 yards (18/5 ratio) and ran for 4 TDs as a senior. He ended his career winning his final 10 starts. His replacement was expected to be either sophomore Aaron Allen or Abilene Christian transfer, Luke Anthony. Anthony started for most of the season but severely injured his lower right leg when he was tackled late in the fourth quarter last Saturday in a blowout loss to TCU. Allen will get the start here and "on paper," this figures to be a tough matchup for the Bulldogs. La Tech has a non-existent rushing attack (97.7 YPG on the ground ranks 119th) and Anthony is a superior QB than Allen. However, La Tech finds a way into the end zone, averaging 29.3 PPG on the season, despite its 10-point effort vs TCU. The defense is another story, allowing 34.3 PPG (95th). Here's the bottom line! Skip Holtz is finishing up his eighth season at La Tech. He went just 4-8 in his first season but 2020 marks the SEVENTH consecutive season in which he's led the Bulldogs to a bowl game. As noted above, the Bulldogs have won EACH of the previous six. In last season's Independence Bowl, La Tech beat Miami-Florida 14-0, becoming the first Group of 5 school to shut out a Power-5 school in a bowl game since the BCS/CFP era began in 1998. What's more, Louisiana Tech has not lost to a current Sun Belt Conference opponent since 1996, winning 18 in a row! You really want to give this team about a TD? Good luck...Larry |
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12-22-20 | Central Florida v. BYU -3.5 | Top | 23-49 | Win | 100 | 55 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* "Bowl Kickoff' is on BYU at 7:00 ET. Josh Heupel was named head coach of the UCF Knights on December 5, 2017, replacing the departing Scott Frost, who had led UCF to a perfect 13-0 season in 2017. Heupel continued the 'magic' in 2018, as UCF took a 12-0 record (AND a 25-game winning streak) into its Sugar Bowl game with LSU, where the Tigers snapped that win streak with a 40-32 victory (coming out party for Joe Burrow). UCF followed with a 10-3 season in 2019 but enters Tuesday's bowl game with amore modest record of 6-3. BYU head coach Kalani Sitake took over at Provo back in 2016. The Cougars went 9-4 in his first season, capping the year with a win in the Poinsettia Bowl. However, BYU followed with a 4-9 bowl-less 2017 campaign and in 2018, only the team's win in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl allowed them to finish above .500 at 7-6. Sitake was feeling some 'heat' from the BYU "faithful" in 2019 after a 2-4 start but a five-game winning streak made BYU 7-4 bowl eligible and Sitake was rewarded with a contract extension through 2023. However, the Cougars lost their regular season final 13-3 at SD State and then lost the Hawaii Bowl to Hawaii 34-30, finishing at 7-6 again. Entering 2020, some of those BYU "faithful" who were questioning that extension. CF opened 2-0 but then lost back-to-back games to Tulsa and Memphis. UCF rebounded to win THREE in a row but lost 36-33 at home to Cincy before finishing with a 58-46 win at USF. QB Gabriel is completing 61.7% for 2,353 yards with 30 TDs and just four INTs, while RBs McCrae (681 yards on 5.2 YPC with 9 TDs) and Anderson (614 yards on 5.6 YPC and four TDs) lead a running game averaging 212.6 YPG (). WR Williams (71 catches / 8 TDs) and Robinson (61 catches / 5 TDs) are both dangerous receivers. The offense averages 44.3 PPG (5th) on 585.6 YPG (5th) but the defense allows 31.4 PPG (78th) on 473.7 YPG (117th). It didn't take long for Sitake to quiet the naysayers, as BYU rolled through a patchwork schedule but at 9-0 and ranked 8th in the AP poll, BYU found themselves just 14th in the first CFP rankings on Nov 24. The CFP selection committee made it clear in each of its first two rankings that BYU's weak schedule was keeping it outside the top-10, so BYU worked hard to schedule a "quality" opponent and got that chance on Dec 5 when it was able to replace Liberty as Coastal Carolina's opponent on Saturday, after COVID-19 issues prevented the Flames from playing in the game. However, the Cougars were held to season lows in points and yards (405) in a 22-17 loss. BYU ended its regular season on Dec 12 with a 28-14 home win over SD State to finish 10-1, ranked 13th (AP) and 16th (CFP). QB Zach Wilson has been TERRIFIC, completing 73.2% for 3,267 yards with 30 TDs and just three INTs (his QB rating of 194.8 ranks second to only Alabama's Mac Jones). RB Allgeier has 957 yards on 7.3 YPC with 12 TDs plus BYU has four players with 32 or more catches. WR Milne leads with 63 (8 TDs) and WR Romney has 38 and leads the team averaging 19.9 YPC. WR Pau'u has 40 catches and while TE Rex has a modest 32, he has a team-high 10 TD receptions. BYU's offense is basically as prolific as UCF's, averaging 43.0 PPG (6th) on 512.2 YPG (8th). However, its defense is leaps and bounds better, allowing 14.6 PPG (3rd) 309.0 YPG (9th). Doing the math BYU is allowing about 17 PPG and 170 YPG less than UCF. One can talk all it wants about BYU's 'soft' schedule but UCF has lost to the three-best teams it has played this season (Cincy, Tulsa and Memphis), with its "best win" coming over 6-5 Tulane. The other five wins have come over teams with a combined record of 11-31 (,262). Talk about a 'phoney' team! Lay the points! Good luck...Larry |
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12-20-20 | Patriots v. Dolphins -1 | Top | 12-22 | Win | 100 | 32 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Month is on the Mia Dolphins at 1:00 ET. The 6-7 New England Pats are staring at what likely is their first non-playoff season since 2008, the last time they didn't win the AFC East. The AFC East winner that season was the 11-5 Miami Dolphins. Miami entered this season having not made the playoffs in 16 of the last 18 seasons but at 8-5, have a chance to claim a wild card spot in 2020. The Bills own a two-game lead over Miami in the division but the Dolphins are currently the No. 7 seed, although only by virtue of owning the tiebreaker over the 8-5 Ravens. However, the Dolphins are just ONE game back of the 5th-seeded Browns and 6th-seeded Titans, who are both 9-4. Patriots QB Cam Newton, a former league MVP in 2015, is just 6-6 as a starter this season, throwing just five TD passes while getting intercepted 10 times (QB rating is a pathetic 78.9). He has run for 451 with 11 TDs and along with RB Harris (691 yards on 5.0 YPC) gives New England a very good running attack (147.5 YPG ranks 5th). However, Harris injured his back in the fourth quarter of Week 14's loss to the Los Angeles Rams and has been ruled out for Sunday. The receiving corps is one of the league's least impressive, with Edelman having not played since Oct 25. WRs Byrd and Mathis each have 42 catches but between the two, have just one TD catch!. New England's defense ranked first in scoring D (14.1 PPG) and total D (275.9 YPG) in 2019 but this year's unit is allowing 21,5 PPG (that's a full TD higher) on 342.9 YPG (about 70 YPG more per game). Miami began the season with a 21-11 loss in Week 1 at New England, as veteran Ryan Fitzgerald was the starting QB. However, in the return matchup, Tua Tagovailoa, the No. 5 overall pick in this year's NFL Draft is under center. Despite a lack of healthy, front-line starters at RB, WR, TE or on the offensive line, Tagovailoa is 4-2 as a starter, throwing nine TDs against just one INT (95.2 QB rating). Miami's running game is mostly non-existent (95.2 YPG ranks 27th), so the fact Myles Gaskins 477 yards on 3.9 YPC) is out hardly matters much. TE Gesicki (44 catches / 8 TDs) is not expected to play (big loss) and WR Parker (56 catches / 8 TDs) is questionable. However, as noted above, Tua is making things happen despite missing key offensive players. Just ask KC, which saw him pass for 316 yards and two TDs in last Sunday's hard-fought 33-27 loss. While New England's defense is way off from last year, Miami's D ranks second in the league in allowing 18.8 PPG. Miami's 25 takeaways ties them for tops in the league with Pittsburgh, with the team's turnover margin of plus-10, being just ONE behind Pittsburgh's leading total of plus-11. Looking back at the Week 1 game, Fitzgerald threw THREE interceptions and still Miami trailed just 14-11 before a fourth quarter TD gave New England the 10-point win. The Pats are just 2-5 on the road, winning only at the 0-13 Jets (on a FG as time expired) and at the 5-9 Chargers. Meanwhile, the Dolphins own the NFL's best ATS record at 10-3, TWO games better than ANY team in the league. Even when the Pats were the division's dominant team the last three seasons, the Dolphins were able to beat them once each in 2019 (27-24 in New England), in 2018 34-33 in Miami) and 2017 (27-20 in Miami). This time around, the Dolphins are the better team and a win is NEEDED to hold the team's playoff position. Tua over Cam and Miami's defense over New England's. Good luck...Larry |
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12-20-20 | Bucs v. Falcons +7 | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
My 9* play is on the Atl Falcons at 1:00 ET. Tampa Bay (8-5) currently sits in sixth place in the NFC, after a 26-14 victory last week at home against Minnesota. Tom Brady was nothing special (15 of 23 for 196 yards and two TDs) but he has 30 TD passes on the season, the EIGHTH time he's done that. The Bus visited Atlanta for a game with the 4-9 Falcons, who are hoping to play the spoiler's role in another lost season. The Falcons' 20-17 loss last week at the Los Angeles Chargers clinched a third straight sub.-500 campaign. Barring a season-ending three-game winning streak, Atlanta will fail to match its 7-9 record of the last two years. Atlanta fired head coach Dan Quinn after starting 0-5 but is 4-4 under interim coach Raheem Morris, with mostly competitive efforts. QB Matt Ryan has thrown for 3,660 yards (will top 4,000 for the 10th straight season!) with 19 TDs and 11 INTs. Todd Gurley (645 yards on just 3.6 YPF but 9 TDs) has NOT helped the running game, as Atlanta averages a woeful 08.3 YPG on 3.76 YPC. The defense allows 390.6 YPG (28th) but a more modest 24.8 PPG (16th). Brady's completing of 64.8% for 3,496 yards with 30 TDs and 11 INTS and RB Ronald Jones (900 yards on 5.0 YPC with 6 TDs) has given Tampa Bay a nice offensive balance. However, he was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Wednesday. He was already considered questionable after undergoing surgery Tuesday to have pins placed in a fractured pinkie finger. Leonard Fournette (271 yards) will take over but note that 103 of his 271 rushing yards this season came back in a Week 2 win. Tampa Bay's season-long defensive rankings look solid, allowing 22.6 PPG (11th) on 330.3.9 YPG (7th) but in the team's 1-3 slide (before its win over Minnesota in Week 14), the "stop unit" had done little 'stopping,' allowing 28.8 PPG. The Vikings scored just 14 points but missed three FGs and an extra-point. This marks the first of two matchups between the Bucs and Falcons in the season's final three weeks (Falcons play at Tampa in Week 17). I realize that the Bucs are focused on breaking a 13-year playoff drought, the second-longest drought in the NFL, but the Falcons are 6-2 ATS their last eight as a division home dog. Also, current Atlanta head coach Morris was Tampa Bay's head coach from 2009-11 before being fired. How much would he 'love' to play spoiler here? Home dog 'barks' loudly. Good luck...Larry |