My 10* Championship Sunday Las Vegas Insider is on the GB Packers at 3:05 ET.

Both Championship Sunday games have terrific QB matchups, with this Green Bay/Atlanta game featuring the NFL's hottest QB in Aaron Rodgers up against Matt Ryan, who many believe will win this year's MVP award (however, Rodgers could have something to say about that!). Rodgers owns a Super Bowl ring and the Packers are participating in the playoffs for the EIGHTH consecutive season. As for the Falcons, they did capture the NFC's No. 2 seed with an 11-5 record in 2016, but this is the team's first postseason appearance since 2012. 

Rodgers proved to be a man of his word when he told reporters that the Green Bay Packers were capable of running the table to secure a playoff bid. Six consecutive wins later and the Packers won the NFC North at 10-6. They've then beaten the Giants 38-13 at Lambeau in the wild card round before last Sunday's thrilling 34-31 last-second win in Dallas over the Cowboys, who had earned the NFC's No. 1 seed at 13-3. Rodgers finished the regular season with an NFL-high 40 TD passes and just seven INTs (QB rating of 104.2), which all followed him struggling down the stretch last season and in the early going of 2016. Despite losing Jody Nelson (led the NFL with 14 TDs among his 97 receptions) to a rib injury against teh Giants, Rodgers threw for 362 yards and four TDs without an INT in 40 attempts. Without Nelson against Dallas, Rodgers threw for 356 yards with two TDs, although he did throw his first INT since a Nov 13th game at Tennessee. Rodgers has 21 TDs and just one INT in the team's 8-0 run plus a Green Bay defense which allowed 24.2 PPG on the season (to rank 21st), has held opponents to 19.5 PPG during its winning run.

As good as Rodgers has been, Matt Ryan has delivered a "career season" for the Falcons. The Falcons scored 71 more points than any other team in the NFL during the regular season, leading all teams by averaging 33.8 PPG. He just missed throwing for 5,000 yards (4,944), while passing for 38 TDs and just seven INTs. His 117.1 QB rating not only led the NFL, but was the fifth-best in NFL history. In fact, he topped 100 in passer rating in 12 of 16 regular-season games, then did it again against Seattle (125.7) in the divisional round when threw for 338 yards with three TDs and zero INTs against Seattle, which owned the best defense of any NFC playoff team. In Julio Jones (83 catches for 1,409 yards), Ryan has one of the three-best WRs in the NFL plus the RB duo of Freeman and Coleman, have turned into a real force. Each can run, catch and gain yards after the catch. Freeman gained 1,541 yards from scrimmage (13 TDs) and Coleman 941 yards with 11 TDs during the regular season. However, defense has been an issue for the Falcons all season, allowing 25.4 PPG (27th) on 371.2 YPG (25th).

Then again, this is not grandfather's NFL or your father's, for that matter. Atlanta ranked 27th in the NFL in points allowed and Green Bay 21st but ONE of them is headed to Super Bowl 51. The knock on Ryan was his dismal 1-4 playoff record coming into this postseason and while he was great vs Seattle, did that real "get the monkey off his back?" The Falcons defense didn't get much of a test against Seattle, a team which averaged only 14.8 PPG on the road during the regular season and then 'laid an egg' in Atlanta. Seattle scored on its opening drive, then didn't get into the end zone again until 3:21 left in the game, when the team was down 36-13! Is the Atlanta defense really ready for Rodgers?

When these teams met in Atlanta back in Week 8, the Packers took the lead with just under four minutes to go but Ryan drove the Falcons 75 yards (in 11 plays) for the tying TD, with the extra-point being the game-winner (33-32). Can't see giving Rodgers and Green Bay any points in this one. I made "The Pack" a top-rated 10* last weekend and will do so again, here.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on Saint Louis (2:00 EST).

The 5-13 St. Louis Billikens are at Dayton to take on the 14-4 Flyers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. 

Saint Louis will be out to atone for a listless 75-52 loss to St. Bonaventure in its latest action.

Dayton enters off a 75-59 beatdown of Ricmond. 

St. Louis is a bad team, it averages 60.6 PPG and concedes 71.7. One bright spot though has been Davell Roby, who has scored 13 or more points in six out of his last eight games. 

Dayton is a good team, it averages 75.4 PPG and concedes 64.5. Charles Cooke averages 17.9 PPG.

But note, this is definitely a spot in which the Billikens have excelled in for bettors, going 4-1 ATS in their last five after scoring 55 points or less, while Dayton is just 1-3 ATS in its last four against a team with a road winning percentage below .400.

I think the high-flying Flyers come in a bit complacent today and the hungry Billikens keep this one a little more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Play on Saint Louis.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Orlando Magic (12:05 EST).

The 37-6 Golden State Warriors are in Orlando on Sunday afternoon to take on the 18-27 Magic and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

I simply feel this sets up as a bit of a letdown spot for the No. 1 ranked Warriors, who come in off their sixth straight win, most recently a satisfying 125-108 road victory over Houston on Friday. 

Orlando is going to be the “hungrier” team today in my opinion. The Magic do come in with some postitive momentum, after losing three straight and seven of eight, Orlando got back into the win column with a solid 112-96 win over the Bucks on Friday. 

The Warriors have the No. 1 offense, but the defense ranks middle of the pack in conceding 105 points a night. 

Orlando averages only 100 points per night, while conceding 104.7. 

I’ll point out though that the Warriors are just 1-3 ATS in their last four following a five-game unbeaten streak, while Orlando is 3-1 ATS in their last four after scoring 112 points or more.

Golden State may be 17-3 SU on the road, but it’s only 8-11 ATS. With a game tomorrow night in Miami, I think the visitors come into this one a bit distracted and the focused home side keeps it competitive until the final moments. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* LEGEND is on LSU (8:30 EST).

The 9-8 LSU Tigers are at Arkansas to take on the 14-4 Razorbacks and while I won’t be so bold as to predict an outright upset, I do definitely feel that the visitors can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to beileve. 

LSU enters off a tight 78-74 setback to Auburn on Wednesday. The Tigers actually held a lead through most of the first half, but they were unable to hold on in the end. 

LSU is going to be the much “hungrier” team today as it’s lost four straight and has just one league victory thus far.

Keep your eyes on Tigers’ forward Aaron Epps, who had 15 points and 13 boards in the setback to Auburn. Leading scorer Antonio Blakeney added 13 points and seven boards.

Arkansas narrowly edged Texas A&M 62-60 last time out. Daryl Macon saved the day with 16 points and four rebounds. 

I’ll point out that LSU is 13-7 ATS in its last 20 off a loss against a conference rival and is 2-0 ATS in its last two after playing to three consecutive SU losses, while Arkansas is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 after allowing 60 points or less and only 5-6 ATS in front of the home town crowd this season.

I think the hungry Tigers do more than enough to come away with the comfortable cover once it’s all said and done. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* REVENGE GAME OF THE MONTH on the Miami Heat (7:30 EST).

The 20-22 Milwaukee Bucks are in Miami to take on the 13-30 Heat and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Milwaukee comes in off a 112-96 road loss in Orlando just last night. Miami on the other hand has shown some life in winning two straight, most recently a 99-95 victory over Dallas on Thursday.

The last time these teams played, the Bucks took a 116-108 home win, which of course sets up the revenge scenario for Miami tonight.

Milwaukee averages 104.8 PPG and concedes 103.8.

The Heat average just 98.6 PPG and allow 102.6. As mentioned above though, Miami has looked a lot better over its last two games 

And note that Miami is 8-6 ATS this year against clubs with losing records and 3-1 ATS in its last four in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Milwaukee is only 7-12 ATS on the road and just 8-13 ATS against teams with losing records.

The Bucks are in a free-fall and they won’t have an easy time tonight in the second game of the back-to-back. I think the home side continues to build momentum and finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Miami.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Appalachian State (5:00 EST).

The 6-10 Appalachian State Mountaineers are at Georgia Southern to take on the 12-6 Eagles and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

The Mountaineers will be the “hungrier” team today as they’ve opened Sun Belt action with just a 1-4 record following an 85-73 setback at Coastal Carolina. Ronshad Shabazz was a bright spot with 17 points in the loss. 

Conversely, I think this sets up as a letdown spot for the Eagles, who come in having won six straight and who are 5-0 in conference action. Most recently they’re coming off a close 62-60 win over Louisiana-Monroe, needing a late furious rally to secure the victory. Tookie Brown had 19 points and eight boards for Georgia Southern. 

I’ll point out though that App State is 4-2 ATS in its last six after allowing 80 points or more, while Georgia Southern is just 1-2 ATS at home this season and only 1-3 ATS off a win against a conference rival. 

For all of the reasons listed above, I think Appalachian State keeps this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on Rutgers (12:00 EST).

The 9-9 Nebraska Cornhuskers are at Rutgers to take on the 11-8 Scarlet Knights on Saturday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Plain and simple, Rutgers is going to be the “hungrier” team today as it risks life and limb in trying to snap its three game losing streak. 

And here’s the perfect opponent to get untracked against as Nebraska comes to town deflated after its 67-66 home loss to Ohio State. 

This is also a revenge game for the home side after the Huskers took all three meetings last season.

Nebraska actually comes in having lost three straight. In the setback to the Buckeyes it shot only 41 percent on the night, including just 5 of 21 from behind the arc. Tai Webster was a bright spot with 18 points and eight boards. 

Note that the Cornhuskers average just 71.9 PPG and concede 71.2.

Rutgers was outplayed badly in its last outing against Indiana, falling 76-57 on the road. Corey Sanders though was decent, going 7 of 14 for 17 points. 

Note that the Scarlet Knights score just 68.3 PPG, but concede just 65.3. 

I’ll point out that Nebraska is 3-10 SU in its last 13 on the road, while Rutgers is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five home games against a team with a road winning percentage below .400.

The Scarlet Knights are 8-2 their last ten at home and feature the superior defense in this matchup. I think the home side is definitely the correct call in this one. 

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Milwaukee (8:00 EST).

A couple of cellar dwellers face off on Friday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The visiting Cleveland State Vikings are 6-13 this year and 2-4 in the Horizon League thus far, while the Panthers are 5-14 on the season and 1-5 in conference play. 

I simply feel this sets up as a letdown spot for Cleveland State, which snapped a four-game losing streak with a 76-65 win over Oakland as a 14-point underdog on Monday. Rob Edwards poured in a career-high 32 points. 

The Vikings would go on to hit 37 percent from behind the arc, which is completely out of character as the team ranks dead-last in three point field goal percentage in the conference.

Milwaukee enters as the “hungrier” team in my estimation, most recently falling 71-57 to the UIC Flames in Chicago on Tuesday. Bryce Nze was a bright spot with 22 points on 83 percent shooting. 

I’ll also point though that Cleveland State is just 2-8 ATS on the road this year, while Milwaukee is already 5-3 ATS this season after scoring 60 points or less.

This is a revenge game for the Panthers as well, as they’d fall 62-53 on New Year’s day to the Vikings. 

I’m backing the home side in this one.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Youngstown State (8:00 EST).

While I won’t be so bold as to predict an outright upset, I do think that the “hungry” Penguins can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

Youngstown State has lost five of six including a 16 point setback at Detroit last time out. 

Green Bay though seems poised for a bit of a mental letdown in my estimation as it gets set to face the lowly Penguins, the Phoenix are 5-1 in conference play, tied with Valpo for top spot in the Horizon League.

Green Bay comes in off a humbling 80-56 loss to Valparaiso last time out though, losing the rebound battle 51-39. 

I’ll point out that Youngstown State has done well in this spot for bettors all year, going 2-1 ATS as a road dog in the 9.5 to 12 points range and 2-0 ATS in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent, while Green Bay has struggled in this position by going 0-2 ATS this season after scoring 60 points or less and 0-1 ATS as a home fav of 9.5 to 12 points.

Everything points to the visitors comfortably sneaking in through the back door down the stretch. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Oakland (7:00 EST).

The 14-5 Oakland Golden Grizzlies are at Northern Kentucky to take on the 12-7 Norse and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

The Golden Grizzlies are just one spot back of first-place Valaparaiso in the Horizon League, but come into this one having dropped two straight. 

The Norse have also dropped two in a row and sit two games behind the conference leader. 

If recent history is any precedence though, then the visitors have to be loving their chances to get back on track today as when these teams met at Oakland earlier in the season, the Golden Grizzlies pulled away for the convincing 76-65 victory.

Oakland averages 80 PPG and hits 32.1 percent from behind the arc. Note that the Grizzlies are already 4-1 in true road games this year.

The Norse are lea by Drew McDonald, who has eight double-doubles this season. So far Northern Kentucky is just 3-3 in league action though. 

I’ll point out that Oakland is 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, while Northern Kentucky is is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight as a home underdog.

If the Golden Grizzlies had come into this game on a big win streak, then I’d likely be playing the Norse tonight instead. But I think the revenge factor gets thrown out the window today because Oakland does in fact come in focused and motivated after the two-game slide. The Grizzlies domianted the first game of the year and I think nothing will change tonight. Play on Oakland.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on USC (9:00 EST).

The 16-2 Arizona Wildcats are at USC to take on the 16-3 Trojans and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

I think Arizona is complacent after winning ten straight, most recently crushing rival Arizona State 91-75. USC enters off a quality 71-68 road win over Coloardo. 

These teams split last years series, each winning on its home floor.

The Wildcats average 75.2 PPG and concede 61.6. Lauri Markkanen leads the way with 16.7 PPG.

USC averages 78.6 PPG and concedes 70.7. Chimezie Metu leads the nightly charge with an average of 14.1 PPG. 

I’ll point out that Arizona is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven when playing with five or six days rest and only 2-3 ATS after scoring 80 points or more, while USC is 6-4 ATS at home this season and 4-2 ATS in its last six when playing the role of underdog.

I think USC is the “hungrier” team today as all three of its losses have come against the PAC 12. 

While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the home side to catch the Wildcats a little flat footed. Play on the Trojans.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Clemson (9:00 EST).

The 11-6 Clemson Tigers are at Louisville to take on the 15-3 Cardinals and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

The Tigers are used to seeing ranked teams as this marks the fourth such opponent in their last five games. Note that Clemson beat a top-20 Louisville team in Greenville last season. 

According to the KenPom national rating, Clemson has so far faced the nation’s sixth-toughest schedule. 

One player to keep your eyes on for Clemson is Jaron Blossomgame, who enters the contest with four straight 20-point games. 

Louisville looks primed for a letdown here after its big 78-69 win over Duke on Saturday. Center Anas Mahmoud set career-highs with 17 points and 11 rebounds for his first career double-double. 

Note that the Tigers are 3-1 ATS in their last four after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games, while Louisville is just 2-3 ATS against the conference thus far.

Clemson matches up well against Louisville. The Cardinals are the better team, but success does breed complacency. While I won’t be so bold as to predict an outright SU upset, I do definitely feel that the visitors can keep this one more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Play on Clemson.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Iowa (7:00 EST).

The 16-2 Maryland Terrapins are in Iowa to take on the 11-8 Hawkeyes and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Maryland is now ranked No. 25 and comes in on the back of a three-game win streak. Most recently the Terps came back to beat Illinois 62-56 on the road. 

Smells like a letdown spot to me.

Iowa enters as the “hungrier” side in my opinion, it’s just 3-3 in Big Ten play after falling at Northwestern, 89-54. 

Note that the Hawkeyes play with revenge after dropping the lone contest between the teams last year, 74-68 at home.

Maryland averages 75.2 PPG and concedes 65.1. Melo Trimble leads the nightly charge with 17.2 PPG.

Iowa averages 81.5 PPG and concedes 78. Peter Jok paces the team with 21.9 PPG.

I’ll point out that Maryland is just 2-3 ATS this year after allowing 60 points or less, while Iowa is already 5-3 ATS at home thus far.

After upsetting Purdue at home, Iowa just suffered perhaps its worst conference loss of all time. It’s going to be all hands on deck for the home side today, play on the Hawkeyes.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Colorado (11:00 EST).

Washington has struggled this season, going just 8-9 overall, including only 1-4 in conference play. Colorado is only slightly better at 10-9 overall, but the Buffs are 0-5 in conference action. 

In a contest between two teams desperate for a victory, I’m going to grab the points.

Colorado almost scored a huge upset over No. 25 USC last time out, eventually succumbing 71-68. George King led the way with 16 points, nine boards, two assists and a steal. 

The Huskies come in of a 76-69 loss to Stanford. Markelle Fultz was a bright spot with 34 points, seven boards, three assists, two steals and two blocks. 

These teams are very evenly matched, but note that Colorado is 4-1 ATS in its last five after five straight SU losses, while Washington is just 4-6 ATS at home this year and only 1-2 ATS off a loss against a conference rival.

Grab as many points as you can, play on Colorado.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Virginia (8:00 EST).

The 13-3 Virginia Cavaliers are in Boston College to take on the 9-9 Eagles and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

The Cavs have won two straight, after two straight setbacks. Most recently Virginia beat Clemson 77-73 on Saturday to improve to 3-2 in the ACC.

The Eagles are coming off a listless 76-53 setback at Syracuse on Saturday and I think they’ll once again have their hands full today with the Nation’s No. 16 team. 

Virginia got 25 points from guard London Perrantes in the victory over the Tigers, he leads the team with an average of 12.1 PPG and 4.1 assists. The Cavs get the job done with suffocating defensive play, leading the nation in conceding just 53.4 points per contest.

Boston College would turn the all over 20 times and shot just 39.6 percent from the floor in the loss to the Orange. Jerome Robinson remains a bright spot this season in averaging 20.2 points, 4.6 boards and 3.2 assists per game. 

I’ll point out that Virginia is 8-5 ATS as a favorite this year and 4-1 ATS on the road, while BC is just 9-11 ATS in its last 20 after scoring 60 points or less.

I think the loss to Syracuse is a clear sign of things to come for the Eagles. Look for the visitors to control the pace from the opening tip and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. 

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Charlotte Hornets (7:00 EST).

The 18-25 Portland Trailblazers are in Charlotte to take on the 20-21 Hornets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Both teams come in struggling. Portland has dropped two straight on the road, most recently a 108-98 setback to Washington, while Charlotte comes in even more desperate after losing five in a row. 

The Blazers average 107.9 PPG, but they’re horrible on the defensive end, conceding 110.7 per night. 

The Hornets average 105 PPG and concede 104. Kemba Walker remains a bright spot for Charlotte, averaging 23 points, while dishing out 5.4 assists. 

I’ll point out that Portland has struggled in this spot all year for bettors, going just 7-13 ATS when playing the role of underdog and only 6-8 ATS in non-conference games, while Charlotte has excelled by going 12-9 ATS at home this year and 8-6 ATS in non-conference contests.

I think the “hungrier” home side finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Charlotte.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Memphis Grizzlies (7:00 EST).

The 25-18 Memphis Grizzlies are in Washington to take on the 21-19 Wizards and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

Memphis is the “hungrier” team in my opinion, it comes in having lost two of its last three, most recently a 108-104 home loss to Chicago on Sunday. 

Conversely, I think the Wizards come in a bit complacent, as they’ve won five of their last six, most recently a 120-101 win over the Blazers at home on Monday. 

But if recent history is any precedence, then the Grizzlies have to be loving their chances today as when they faced Washington back on October 30th, they’d pull away for the 112-103 victory at home.

The Grizzlies average just 99.6 PPG, but are third overall on the defensive end in conceding just 99.1. Marc Gasol leads the nightly charge with 19.4 points and six boards per contest. 

The Wizards average 105.8 PPG and concede 105.7. Guard John Wall leads the team with an average of 22.9 points, 10.1 assists and 2.24 steals per contest. 

I’ll point out though that Memphis is already 12-9 ATS this year against clubs with winning records and 9-7 ATS after allowing 105 points or more, while Washington is just 2-3 ATS this season after a win by ten points or more and just 2-3 ATS as a home fav of three points or less.

While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset obviously, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the gritty visitors to take this one down to the wire. Play on Memphis.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Raptors (7:00 EST).

The 27-13 Toronto Raptors are in Philadelphia to take on the 13-26 76ers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

I played against the Raptors last night, and Brooklyn would manage a slim 1-point cover with the large 11-point spread it was afforded. Suffice it to say, i think Toronto bounces back with a much bigger effort this evening. 

These teams have already played twice and the Raptors have won both easily, winning 122-95 in the first meeting, before a 123-114 win in Philadelphia last month. 

Toronto has now won three straight and averages 111.3 PPG, while conceding 104.6. DeMar DeRozan is averaging 30.5 PPG this month and is now fifth in the league in scoring at 28.1 PPG.

Philadelphia is playing its best basketball of the season, but I still don’t think it will be enough. Despite winning four of their last five, the 76ers still average just 99.5 PPG, while allowing 105.3

I’ll point out that Toronto is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 in the second game of the back-to-back scenario, while Philadelphia is a poor 9-20 in its last 29 divisional contests.

Toronto has kicked it up a notch of late, averaging over 120 PPG over its last five. This is a matchup which the 76ers have struggled with and I don’t see anything changing tonight. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Notre Dame (7:00 EST).

The 16-2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish are at 16-2 Florida State on Wednesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

After winning 12 straight, FSU got spanked 96-83 at North Carolina on Saturday. Notre Dame has won seven straight, including a gritty 76-71 road win over Virginia Tech on Saturday to improve to 5-0 in the ACC. 

Steve Vasturia had 20 points on 8 of 14 shooting in the victory over the Hokies for the Fighting Irish. Bonzie Colson though leads the team with an average of 15.8 points, 10.9 boards and 1.4 blocks. 

Florida State shot just 12 of 26 from the foul line against the Tar Heels. Dwayne Bacon leads the charge with 17.8 PPG.

I’ll point out that Notre Dame is already 4-0 ATS off a win against a conference rival this year, while FSU is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 versus good offensive teams which score 77-plus points per contest.

I think the Irish present similar matchup issues for the Seminoles today as what UNC did last time out. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Notre Dame.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* BIG-TEN SIDE OF THE WEEK is on Michigan (9:00 EST).

The 12-6 Michigan Wolverines are in Wisconsin tonight to take on the 14-3 Badgers and while I’ll stop short in predicting an outright upset, I do definitely expect the “hungrier” visiting side to keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

Michigan enters off a 91-85 home win over Nebraska on Saturday, while Wisconsin made quick work of Ohio State in its latest 89-66 win last week. 

Note that this is a revenge game for the Wolverines after the Badgers took the lone meeting 68-57 last year. 

Michigan averages 75.3 PPG and concedes 66.2. The Wolverines are paced by Zak Irvin, who averages 14.4 PPG and who had 21 points, including going 7 of 7 from the charity stripe in the victory over the Huskers.

The Badgers average 76.8 PPG and concede 60.2. Bronson Koenig had 21 points in the team’s win over the Buckeyes.

I’ll point out though that Michigan is 8-6 ATS in its last 14 after allowing 80 points or more, while Wisconsin is just 1-3 ATS in its last four off a win against a conference rival.

These team’s offensive and defensive averages are very similar. Michigan has struggled on the road this year, but I think it can catch the Badgers a bit complacent this evening. I’m grabbing the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the Brooklyn Nets (7:35 EST).

The 27-13 Toronto Raptors are in Brooklyn to take on the 8-32 Nets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Clearly the Raptors are the better team, but I think they’ll come in a bit complacent in facing the lowly Nets and look for the home side to keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Toronto most recently hammered the Knicks 116-101 at home on Sunday, while Brooklyn lost its tenth straight in a 137-112 home loss to the Rockets. 

To say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement, as Toronto has won six straight in the series, including both meetings this year. 

So far Toronto is third in the league in scoring with an average of 111.3 PPG, while ranked 15th on the defensive end in conceding 104.6

The Nets are ranked 14th overall in scoring in posting 105.3 PPG, but are last on the defensive end in conceding 114.9 PPG thus far.

I’ll point out that Toronto is just 23-30 ATS in its last 53 after three or more consecutive SU victories, while Brooklyn is 2-1 ATS in its last three as a home dog in the 9.5 to 12 points range.

Because of all the reasons listed aboved, I think this is a few too many points to be giving up today. Play on the Nets.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (8:00 EST).

The 29-10 Cleveland Cavaliers are at Golden State to take on the 34-6 Warriors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. 

The Warriors have now lost four straight to the Cavs going back to the Finals when they blew a 3-1 lead. 

Cleveland won 109-108 at home on Christmas day and I think all signs point to another nail-biter tonight as well.

The Cavs snapped a mini two-game slide with a 120-108 OT win in Sacramento on Friday. Newly acquired sharp-shooter Kyle Korver had 18 points off the bench, including 4 of six from range. LeBron James had 16 points and 15 assists. 

So far Cleveland posts 109.4 PPG, which ranks fourth. The Cavs concede 103.5, which is 11th. 

The Warriors have won three in a row and average 117.5 PPG, ranked No. 1. The team doesn’t need to be the best on the defensive end, and it isn’t, conceding 105.4 PPG, ranked 21st. 

I’ll point out though that Cleveland is 4-1-1- ATS in its last six when playing on two days rest and 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 following a SU win of more than ten points, while Golden State is just 1-5 ATS in its last six at home and only 1-7 ATS following a SU victory.

There’s something about this rivalry that brings out the best in LeBron James. While I won’t be so bold as to call for an outright upset, I think the visitors will at the very least, comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Play on Cleveland.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on DePaul (4:30 EST).

The 8-10 DePaul Blue Demons are at Saint John’s to take on the 8-11 Red Storm and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. 

Both teams have been struggling this year, with DePaul just 1-4 in league action, while St. John’s is just 2-4. 

Overall the Red Storm have lost four in a row, while the Blue Demons have dropped five of their last six. 

Note though that this is a definite revenge game for the Blue Demons, who dropped the first game between the teams on January 1st, 79-73. 

Keep your eyes on DePaul’s Billy Garrett Jr. who is averaging 14.9 PPG and Eli Cain, who leads the way with 16.4 per contest. 

The Red Storm opened league play with wins over Butler and DePaul, but have since dropped four in a row. Shamorie Ponds has been a bright spot in averaging 15.7 PPG this season. 

Ill point out that DePaul is already 2-0 ATS this year after allowing 80 points or more and 3-1 ATS after scoring 60 points or less, while St. John’s is just 4-5 ATS when playing the role of favorite and only 1-2 ATS when playing with one or less days rest.

The first game was decided by a six point margin and I think all signs point to an even closer affair this time around. Play on DePaul.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Xavier (2:00 EST).

The 17-1 Creighton Bluejays are at Xavier to take on the 13-4 Musketeers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

Xavier will be the “hungrier” team today after back-to-back road losses against top ranked opponents in Villanova and Butler. Xavier allows 68.2 PPG and averages 76.6 of its own. Keep your eyes on Trevon Blulett, who leads the team with 16.8 points and 5.2 boards per game. 

While the Musketeers are just 3-2 in Big East action, they come into this one a perfect 9-0 at home this year. 

Creighton has won four straight and averages 86.8 PPG, while allowing 71.5. Marcus Foster leads the way with an average of 18.2 PPG. So far the Blue Jays are a perfect 4-0 in Big East play and 4-1 overall on the road. 

Can anyone say “classic letdown spot?!”

The home team has covered the spread in eight of the last 11 in this series and I think that strong trend continues here. Off two straight losses, I simply can’t see Xavier having another letdown tonight. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Oklahoma City Thunder (9:05 EST).

Analysis posted at least 3 hours before game time.

My 10* NFL Div Round Las Vegas Insider is on the GB Packers at 4:40 ET.

Full, detailed analysis by 9:00 ET Wednesday evening.

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Ohio State (1:30 EST).

The 12-6 Michigan State Spartans are at Ohio State to take on the 10-7 Buckeyes and for a number of different reasons, i think this one favors the home side. 

Michigan State is 4-1 in Big Ten conference action after a satisfying 65-47 wint at home over Minnesota, while the Buckeyes come into this one desperate after opening league play at 0-4, most recently an 89-66 setback at Wisconsin on Thursday. 

To say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement, as MSU took all three games against OSU last year.

The Spartans’ defense looked pretty good against the Gophers, but the offense left something to be desired, going just 42.6 percent from the floor and 5 of 14 from beyond the arc. MSU averages 72.3 PPG and concedes 66.7 thus far.

JaQuan Lyle was a bright spot for Ohio State in the loss to the Badgers, finishing with 13 points on 5 of 9 shooting. So far OSU averages 73.8 PPG and allows 66.9.

I’ll point out that MSU is already just 1-3 ATS this year after allowing 60 points or less, while Ohio State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after allowing 80 points or more and 3-1 ATS in its last four after three or more consecutive SU losses. 

I think the desperation level in which the home side plays with today turns out to be the difference. Play on the Buckeyes.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* AFC SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the New England Patriots (8:15 EST).

The 9-7 Houston Texans are in New England to take on the 14-2 Patriots and for a number of different reasons I think this one favors the favorites.

Houston managed to get by Oakland 27-14 last week, while the Pats come in rested after enjoying a first round bye. In Week 2 the Patriots annihilated the Texans 27-0. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting an even bigger lop-sided beatdown tonight.

In that game Jacoby Brissett was at QB for New England, while Brock Osweiler had 196 yards, zero TD’s and one INT for Houston.

Looking good against a Raiders team that was down to its third string rookie QB is one thing, it’s obviously quite another in facing Tom Brady and company at Foxborough in January. Note that the Texans average just 17.4 PPG, ranked 29th overall. 

Houston’s defense was its strong point, finishing by allowing 20.5 PPG, ranked 11th.

That defense though is about to be tested by New England’s third ranked offense which posted 27.6 PPG. In the win over Houston in Week 3, LeGarrette Blount had 105 yards and two TD’s.

But as good as the offense is for New England, the Pats’ defense was even better, conceding just 15.6 PPG, ranked first overall. And note, that defense was especially strong against the run, which clearly doesn’t bode well for the Texans’ Lamar Miller.

I’ll point out that Houston is just 2-5 ATS on the road this year, while New England is 4-2 ATS in its last six when playing with two weeks off. 

I simply can’t see Osweiler mustering any sort of offensive attack today as he and the Texans are going to be out of their element in chilly Foxborough. The bottom line is, I’m expecting a huge performance from Brady as he looks to send a message to the rest of the league.

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Ole Miss (6:30 EST).

The 10-6 Ole Miss Runnin’ Rebels are in South Carolina to take on the 13-3 Game Cocks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. 

Mississippi is desperate for a win today after staring out 1-3 in the SEC. Conversely, it’s not too hard to imagine South Carolina coming out a bit flat-footed and content tonight after opening with a 3-0 conference record. 

Most recently Ole Miss fell 69-47 at home to Georgia, while South Carolina comes in off a satisfying 70-60 road win over Tennessee. 

The Runnin’ Rebels are now leaning on Terence Davis to shoulder the load after losing guard DeAndre Burnett to injury last time out.

Sindarius Thornwell had 22 points, five boards, four steals and four assists in the Gamecocks’ win over the Vols on Wednesday. It wasn’t all sunshine and roses though, as note that South Carolina would go on to commit 21 turnovers in the victory.

I’ll point out that Ole Miss is 8-5 ATS in its last 13 against good offensive teams which average 77-plus points per contest, while Memphis is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 as a home fav of 11 points or more.

I think the desperation level in which Ole Miss plays with today will in the end keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Illinois (6:00 EST).

The 15-2 Maryland Terrapins are in Illinois to take on the 12-5 Fighting Illini and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

It’s revenge time for the Illinis after falling 84-59 to Maryland on December 27th at College Park. Illinois shot just 35.6 percent from the floor.

Since then though the Fighting Illini have gone 2-1, beating Ohio State and Michigan, but losing to Indiana. Maryland enters this one off a close 75-72 win over Indiana on Tuesday and suffice it to say, I think it’s poised for a letdown tonight.

Melo Trimble leads the Terps with an average of 17.5 PPG. Maryland averages 76 PPG and allows 65.6.

I think the Illini carry over the momentum from their last game, destroying Michigan by shooting 64.2 percent from the floor, including 9 of 14 from range. Malcolm Hill has been the most consistent player in averaging 18.6 points and 6.1 boards per game.

Illinois averages 78.6 PPG and concedes 72.5.

I’ll point out that Maryland is just 1-2 ATS in its last three off a win against a conference rival, while Illinois is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 after scoring 80 points or moe.

Illinois is a different team at home, something it proved to Michigan last time out. I think the home side comes in focused and avenges the earlier loss to the Terps. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on South Florida (6:00 EST).

The 6-9 USF Bulls are at Memphis to take on the 12-5 Tigers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

South Florida is the “hungrier” team here in my estimation as it comes in having gone 0-4 to open AAC play. Last time out USF lost to Tulane at home 82-67. 

Memphis enters off an 81-71 loss at Tulsa on Wednesday to snap a three-game win streak. Momentum is a difficult thing to gain and once lost, it’s even harder to get back. Suffice it to say, i think this does indeed set up as a natural letdown spot for the Tigers.

These teams split a pair of games last year, each winning on its home floor. 

The Bulls are led by Geno Thorpe, who had 16 points in the setback to the Green Wave. So far USF averages 67.1 PPG.

The Tigers average 79.8 PPG and concede 70.6. Memphis is paced by Dedric Lawson, who had 26 points and six boards in the loss to Tulsa.

I’ll point out though that USF is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road dog in the 15.5 to 18 points range, while Memphis is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 as a home fav in the 15.5 to 18 points range. 

Am I going to suggest “sprinkling a little on the money line?” Of course not.

I simply feel that the Bulls determination in this spot will keep it a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Play on South Florida.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:35 EST).

The 10-5-1 Seattle Seahawks are in Atlanta to take on the 11-5 Falcons in the divisional round of the NFL Playoffs and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

I played on Seattle last week in its destruction of the Lions and suffice it to say, I expect the playoff tested Seahawks to carry that momentum over here and give the home side everything it can handle. 

Seattle’s defense looked great in the 26-6 win over Detroit. It’s going to have to be sharp once again in facing Matt Ryan and the high-flying Falcons. 

Remember though, when these two played in Week 6, it was the Hawks that scored the 28-26 outright victory. Seattle had three rushing TD’s in the win, while Ryan threw for three for ATL. 

In the win over Detroit the Seahawks’ defense gave up just two field goals. QB Russell Wilson was 23 of 30 for 224 yards and two TD’s. RB Thomas Rawls had 161 yards on 27 carries and I’m expecting him to have a big day against the Falcons’ suspect line. 

Note that Seattle ranks 21st in the NFL on the offensive end in averaging 22.1 PPG. The Seahawks though concede just 18.2, ranked third overall. 

That defense will once again be put to the test as the Falcons average 33.8 PPG, ranked first in the league. As mentioned above though, the defense has been a disaster all season, ranked 28th against the pass and 27th overall in conceding 25.4 PPG. 

I’ll point out that Seattle is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season as an underdog, while ATL is just 8-18 ATS in its last 26 when playing the role of favroite (including just 1-3 ATS in its last four). 

I think that Wilson and company have a big opportunity to put some points on the board and hang with Ryan down the stretch. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* NON-CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (10:30 EST).

The 28-10 Cleveland Cavaliers are in Sacramento to take on the 16-22 Kings and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. 

It’s going to be all hands on deck for the Cavs tonight as they look to snap a two-game slide. The Kings enter off a win which snapped a three-game skid by beating Detroit on Tuesday.

After wins over the Nets and Suns, the Cavs lost 100-92 at Utah on Tuesday and then 102-86 at Portland on Wednesday. LeBron James had just 20 points and Kyrie Irving had just 11. Is it time to hit the “panic button” if you’re a Cleveland fan?

Of course not. These types of games/stretches happen to even the best of them. For championship teams like the Cavs, it serves as a “wake up call.” 

DeMarcus Cousins had 24 points, 13 boards and six assists in his teams 100-94 victory over the Pistons. Note though in the three previous losses, he averaged just 18.3 PPG on 17-of-45 shooting. 

I’m expecting James to lead the drive tonight. Cleveland is too deep and talented and a three-game losing streak would clearly not be acceptable. I’m expecting a rout, lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Ivy League SIDE OF THE MONTH is on Yale (8:00 EST).

The 8-5 Yale Bulldogs are in Pennsylvania to take on the 6-6 Quakers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

This is a big game for Yale, as it’s its first Ivy League contest of the year and the first of three straight road contests to commence league play. Pennsylvania enters off a 61-52 setback at Princenton in its conference opener. 

Yale though has won six of seven, most recently annihilating D-III Mitchell College 102-46. And if recent history is any precedence, then the visitors have to be loving their chances today as they’ve taken eight straight in this series. So far the Bulldogs average 76.4 PPG and concede just 68. Six players average over nine points, led by Alex Copeland with 13.3. The team also averages 17.8 assists per game, which ranks it 15th in the nation.

The Quackers had won three straight before losing to a shorthanded Princeton team. AJ Brodeur is a bright spot on the team in averaging 14.8 points and 6.6 boards per contest. Penn averages just 66.9 PPG, but makes up for it on the defensive end in allowing only 65.6.

I’ll point out though that the Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five after allowing 50 points or less in their previous outing and 9-3-1 ATS against the conference, while Pennsylvania is just 1-4 ATS in its last five home games and only 1-4 ATS against the conference.

Yale has won eight straight in this series by an average of 15.1 PPG and all signs point to similar final outcome here as I simply can’t see the offensively challenged Quakers keeping pacing down the stretch. Play on the Bulldogs.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Golden State Warriors (10:35 EST).

The 18-22 Detroit Pistons are at Golden State to take on the 33-6 Warriors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

Detroit comes in off a 110-94 loss to the Sacramento Kings. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope had 21 points. The Pistsons would go on to allow the Kings to shoot 13 of 24 from behind the arc. Reggie Jackson leads the team with 16.9 points. 

So far on the season Detroit ranks 24th in the NBA in scoring at 100.1 PPG, while ranked fourth on the defensive end in conceding 100.3.

Kevin Durant had 28 points and eight boards in a home win over Miami last time out. Guard Klay Thompson was given the night off in that one. The Warriors shot 45.3 percent from the floor and are now 17-3 in front of the home town crowd this season. 

Note that Golden State leads the league in scoring at 117.3 PPG. 

I’ll point out that Detroit is just 8-11 ATS as an underdog this year and just 8-13 ATS on the road, while Golden State is 12-8 ATS this year following a win by ten points or more.

The Warriors have gone 5-1 SU in their last six, but are 0-6 ATS in that span. I think that trend finally gets broken today as I simply can’t see the offensively challenged and now road weary Pistons matching pace down the stretch. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on Wiconsin Green Bay (8:00 EST).

The 11-6 Wright State Raiders are at Wisconsin Green Bay to take on the 10-6 Phoenix and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

The Phoenix are 4-0 in league play, while the Raiders are 2-2.

Wright State enters off an 80-75 loss to Youngstown State. In three of four league games, the Raiders have conceded at least 72 points (and at least 80 in two of those). 

On the year the Raiders have four players that have averaged at least 7.6 PPG. Note that Wright State averages 74.5 PPG, while it concedes 69.8.

The Phoenix like to push the pace from start to finish and so far not many have been able to keep up to them. Note that Wisconsin Green Bay has posted 81.5 PPG, while allowing 74.3. Seven players average at least 7.6 PPG, led by Charles Cooper at 13.9 PPG. 

I’ll point out that Wright State is just 1-3 ATS against the conference this season and only 1-3 ATS after allowing 80 points or more, while Wisconsin Green Bay is 3-1 ATS this year when playing with one days rest and 2-1 ATS off a win against a conference rival.

Wright State’s defense isn’t very good and I have a hard time seeing the visitors slowing down the surging Phoenix. Lay the points as I expect the home side to comfortably pull away down the stretch.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the New York Knicks (7:05 EST). 

The 17-21 New York Knicks are in Philadelphia to take on the 10-25 76ers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. 

The Knicks are the “hungrier” team in my estimation. The Knicks have lost two in a row and eight of their last nine after falling 110-96 at home to New Orleans on Monday. 

Conversely, this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the suddenly surging 76ers who have won three of their last four, most recently a 105-95 victory in Brooklyn on Sunday. 

If recent history is any precedence though, then the Knicks have to be loving their chances to get untracked as they’ve taken five straight and nine of the last ten in the series. 

New York averages 105.5 PPG and is actually tied for third in the league in rebounding with 45.7 boards per contest. Where the Knicks lack on most nights is on the defensive end of the floor in allowing 108.9 PPG. Carmello Anthony leads the way with 21.9 points and 6.1 boards per game.

Philadelphia is 26th in the league in scoring with an average of just 99.2 PPG. It’s 20th in rebounding and ranked 21st on the defensive end in conceding 105.9 PPG. Joel Embiid leads the way for the 76ers with 19.4 points, plus 7.3 boards per game.

I’ll point out that New York is 9-4 ATS as a favorite this year and 3-0 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite, while Philadelphia is just 5-6 ATS after scoring 105 points or more and only 1-4 ATS after a divisional contest.

I think desperation breeds motivation and success leads to complacency. Play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Tulane (7:00 EST).

The 3-12 Tulane Green Wave are in South Florida to take on the 6-8 Bulls and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

Both teams are struggling. Tulane enters off an 80-59 setback to Memphis, while USF comes in off an 84-65 road loss to SMU.

Whenever these teams meet, it’s been a battle as last year saw them split the two-game series.

The Green Wave are led by Cameron Reynolds, who averages 15.5 points and 6.2 boards per game. 

South Florida lost leading scorer Jahmal McMurray to a transfer after three games played and head coach Orlando Antigua was fired last week. 

I’ll point out that Tulane is 3-2 ATS in its last five after allowing 80 points or more, while South Florida is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine after allowing 80 points or more.

I think Tulane is going to have its chances today as these teams do in fact match up pretty evenly on the offensive end. USF is dealing with adversity off the court and I think is ripe for the picking. That said, grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Tennessee (6:30 EST).

The 12-3 South Carolina Gamecocks are in Tennessee to take on the 8-7 Volunteers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

The Vols are anxious to break a two-game slide and take advantage of what could potentially be a contented Game Cocks team which comes in having won two straight. 

South Carolina is led by guard Sindarius Thornwell, who averages 18.4 points, 7.2 boards, 3.6 assists and 2.4 steals per game. 

Tennessee will have its hands full today against the Gamecock’s smothering defense, but note that South Carolina has struggled in this spot mightily for bettors, going just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five following a victory and just 2-5 ATS in its last seven following an ATS win.

Conversely, this is a position in wihch the Volunteers have excelled, going 5-3 ATS this year after teams with winning records and 5-2 ATS when playing the role of underdog. 

I think Tennessee’s up-tempo offense will do just enough to secure the victory today. Play on the Vols.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on George Washington (6:00 EST).

The 9-7 George Washington Colonials are at VCU to take on the 13-3 Rams and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

I think the Rams come in a bit complacent after winning seven straight. Conversely, the Colonials will be the more desperate side after dropping three of their last four.

Most recently George Washington would cut a 23-point second-half deficit to just four, ultimately falling to Richmond 77-70 on Sunday though. Tyler Cavanaugh was a standout with a game-high 22 points. 

VCU is coming off an 81-64 win over Massachusetts, winning the rebounding battle 45 to 32: “We’ve got to keep playing the way we’re playing,” new head coach Will Wade explained. “It’s nothing sexy. It’s nothing out of the ordinary. But it’s tried and true, good basketball. We’re a mid-tempo team. We push it in transition. If we don’t have anything, we pull it out and get that thing in the paint, either off the bounce or off a post feed. We guard and we crash the glass. We’re nothing special. We’ve got to understand why we’re having success.”

I’ll point out though that George Washington is 3-1 ATS on the road this year, while VCU is just 2-3 ATS at home and just 5-6 ATS when playing the role of favorite.

While I’ll stop short in calling for an outright upset, I do think that the Rams’ recent success will lead to a bit of complacency and that the hungry Colonials will keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on SDSU (11:00 EST).

The 8-6 San Jose State Spartans are at San Diego State to take on the 8-7 Aztecs on Tuesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

SDSU is struggling through its worst start to a season in a very long time and will be desperate to score a conference victory, so far 0-3 in Mountain West action. 

Conversely, this sets up as a bit of a letdown spot for the Spartans in my estimation after they notched their first conference win in a 69-62 effort over Fresno State on Saturday. 

SJSU only had 25 rebounds total in its last game and still somehow managed to beat the Bulldogs. 

SDSU’s 0-3 conference record draws some concern, but note that it did come against three of the best in New Mexico, Nevada and Boise State. 

I’ll point out though that San Jose State is 0-4 ATS in its last four following a SU victory and just 3-7 ATS in its last ten against the conference, while SDSU is 13-4-2 ATS in its last 19 following an ATS loss. 

I’m banking on the “hungrier” team finding a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Brooklyn Nets (7:35 EST).

The 21-16 Atlanta Hawks are in Brooklyn to take on the 8-28 Nets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

The Hawks are poised for a bit of a mental letdown in my opinion after winning six straight, most recently a 97-82 victory in Dallas on Saturday. 

Conversely, the lowly Nets will be desperate to break a six-game slide, most recently falling 105-95 at home to the 76ers. 

Brooklyn plays with revenge of course, as it’s lost seven of the last eight in the series, but note that the last time the teams met in New York, the Nets escaped with the 90-88 win on November 17th, 2015. 

Clearly the Hawks are the better team overall. While just 20th in scoring offense at 102.3 PPG, Atlanta makes up for it on the defensive end in allowing just 102.8. Brooklyn is 15th in league scoring at 105.4 PPG, but last on the defensive end in allowing 114 per contest.

I simply feel however that this sets up as a natural letdown/lookahead/trap game for the visitors, who conclude a four game road trip after posting three straight wins, before enjoying three whole nights off and their first game back at home. 

Brooklyn’s level of desperation will at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR is on Alabama (8:00 EST).

In all the hoopla over Alabama winning the national championship a year ago, it was not lost on the gambling community that the Crimson Tide did not cover the spread. The son of Nick Saban went in to the title game as 6-point favorites, but their 45-40 victory did nothing but cause anguish among their backers at the betting window.

Twelve month later, and here we are again. Alabama vs. Clemson II, and the betting line is just about the same. Just about every betting outlet in the world has the Tide favored by 6, 6.5 or 7 points.

Will the outcome be any different this time around?

Yes and no.

Alabama will win again, but this time will cover the spread.

Clemson appears to be the chic pick in the media. The Tigers earned lots of street cred after their 31-0 drawing and quartering of Ohio State in the semifinals. Clemson intercepted two passes in that game, which immediately caused everyone to start wondering what the Tigers could do to Alabama freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts.

Hurts, who came out of nowhere and was the Southern Conference Offensive Player of the Year when he threw 34 touchdown passes, was not exactly Peyton Manning 2.0 in the Tide’s 24-7 semifinal victory over Washington – 7 of 14, no TDs, only 57 yards passing.

But not much bothers Hurts ("I rarely get frustrated," he said after the Washington game. "I just take it as it comes and play ball."), so even the absence of offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin (who will miss the game as he gets a head start on his new job as head coach at Florida Atlantic) shouldn’t be much of an impediment.

Alabama scored plenty of points this season (the Tide averaged nearly 40 a game in going 14-0 SU), but they figure to win their 5th national title in eight seasons by riding their lightning-fast defense past Clemson.

Alabama’s athletic defense led the nation in defensive touchdowns, it led the nation in rushing defense and it led the nation in total defense. Consider this: In the best football conference in the country, the Tide scored more points than any other team and gave up fewer points than any other team – both by wide margins.

If any team can beat No. 1 Alabama, it’s No. 2 Clemson. But the Crimson Tide are not just any team. And they figure to both win this game, and cover the spread.

Roll Tide.

Again.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Georgetown (6:30 EST).

The 8-9 St. John’s Red Storm are in Georgetown to take on the 8-8 Hoyas and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the desperate home side.

The Hoyas are off to an 0-4 start in the Big East and will be particularly anxious to get back on the court and take out their frustrations on someone after falling 85-76 to Butler in OT at home on Saturday. 

The Red Storm are ripe for the picking, they’ve lost two straight, most recently falling 97-82 to Xavier on Saturday. Marcus LoVett was a bright spot with 32 points on 10 of 14 shooting. St. John’s though was sloppy, turning the ball over 16 times and shooting just 40.6 percent from the floor. The Red Storm average 78.4 PPG and concede 73.9. 

Georgetown is led by Rodney Pryor with an average of 18.6 PPG. He was 0 for 8 from the field in the loss to Butler though. So far the Hoyas average 77.4 PPG and allow 72.4.

I’ll point out though that the Red Storm are already just 1-2 ATS this year after allowing 80 points or more and only 2-3 ATS after scoring 80 points or more, while Georgetown is 4-2 ATS in its last six after three or more consecutive SU losses.

The Hoyas domianted St. John’s in two games last year and after the recent shoddy play, I expect them to duplicate those performances with another rout in this one. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on USC (10:00 EST).

The 10-5 California Golden Bears are at USC to take on the 15-1 Trojans and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

Cal has lost three of four, most recently coming off an 81-71 setback at UCLA on Thursday. 7-2, 260 lb. center Kameron Rooks is questionable for this one. 

After losing their first game of the year at Oregon on December 30th, the Trojans would easily bounce back in a 72-56 destruction of Stanford at home on Thursday. 

Cal struggled from the field in the loss to UCLA, shooting just 39.1 percent, while also going only 10 of 18 from the foul line and turning it over 13 times. The Golden Bears average 70.9 PPG and concede 61.7. 

The Trojans average 80.3 PPG and concede just 69.7 USC would go on to hold the Cardinal to just 36.5 percent fro the field and 4 of 15 from the 3-point line.

I’ll point out that Cal is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 following a SU loss, while USC is 4-1 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory. 

USC is 25-2 in its last 27 at home and I think it’s high-powered offense will prove to be just too much for Cal tonight. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Sacramento Kings (9:00 EST).

The 31-6 Golden State Warriors are in Sacramento to take on the 15-21 Kings and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

The Warriors look vulnerable in this spot in my estimation after having their four game win streak snapped in a brutal 128-119 OT loss to Memphis on Friday. 

The Kings on the other hand will be risking life and limb today as they try to break a four-game slide, most recently a 106-98 setback at home to the Clippers on Friday. 

And to say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement, as Golden State has taken 12 straight in the series.

The Warriors own the No. 1 offense in the league, but clearly the team has major issues on the defensive end. 

The slumping Kings will look to reverse their fortunes and take advantage. Sacramento averages 102.2 PPG and is middle of the pack on the defensive end, allowing 104.6, ranked 16th (the Warriors are ranked 20th). 

I’ll point out that Golden State is in fact 0-4 ATS in its last four against teams with a losing straight up record, while Sacramento is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 following a straight up loss.

Sacramento has Rudy Gay back in the line-up, which is a good boost for a team in need of postive momentum. While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do think the Kings can take advantage of this still reeling Warriors team and keep it competitive until the final moments. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the New York Giants (4:40 EST).

The 11-5 New York GIants are in Green Bay to take on the 10-6 Packers and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to recommend grabbing the points as I expect the visitors to take this one down to the wire. 

New York won three of its last four to finish with an 11-5 record, while Green Bay won its final six games to take the NFC North. The Packers beat the Giants 23-16 at home in Week five. Aaron Rodgers had 259 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s, while Eli Manning had 199 passhing yards, one TD and no INT’s. 

New York gets the job done on the defensive end and I think its underrated unit will prove to be the difference today. Last year the Giants had the 30th ranked defense, but this season the unit allows 17.8 PPG, ranked second overall.

Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers finished the season with a 40:7 TD to INT ratio. The run game struggled with injuries all year, so they’ll clearly be putting all their eggs in one basket this weekend, committed to the passing game. Green Bay finished ranked 31st against the pass this season and would go on to allow 24.2 PPG, ranked 21st overall. 

I’ll point out that New York is 5-1 ATS in its last six off a win against a division rival, while Green Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last six after two or more consecutive SU victories.

Manning will have a big day against this weak Packers’ secondary and while he’s had a great run to this point, I have a hard time seeing Rodgers having such a productive day against the Giants’ top ranked unit. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (1:05 EST).

The 10-6 Miami Dolphins are in Pittsburgh to take on the 11-5 Steelers and for a number of different reasonss, I think this one favors the home side. Miami would win three of its last four to secure a spot, while Pittsburgh won its final seven games to take the AFC North. In Week six, Miami beat Pittsburgh 30-15. Suffice it to say, it’s now payback time for the Steelers!

Miami lost 35-14 to the Pats last week. Backup QB Matt Moore was decent, going 24 of 34 for 205 yards, one TD and two INT’s. RB Jay Ajayi will clearly be leaned upon heavily here, he’d finish with 1,272 rushing yards and eight TD’s. 

The Fish would finish the regular season averaging 22.7 PPG, ranked 17th overall. The defense was weak, conceding 23.8 PPG, ranked 18th and just got burned by three passing TD’s to the Pats last week.

Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger finished with 3,819 yards and a 29:13 TD to INT ratio. Pittsburgh would finish the year averaging 24.9 PPG, good for 11th overall. The defense was also decent, conceding 20.4, ranked tenth in the league.

I’ll point out that Miami is interestingly just 1-4 ATS in its last five after allowing 30 points or more in its previous game and just 6-21 ATS in its last 27 after allowing more than 250 passing yards in its previous outing, while Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home playoff contests.

Pittsburgh has the edge on both sides of the ball in this one. Moore has been decent, but the pressure gets dialed up considerably this week. I think the Dolphins finally have a letdown here and the home side pulls away for the comfortable ATS cover as the game comes down the stretch. Play on the Steelers.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Colorado (9:30 EST).

The 10-5 Colorado Buffaloes are in Arizona to take on the 14-2 Wildcats and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. 

I think Colorado is the “hungrier” team tonight, it’s lost two straight after falling 78-77 at Arizona State on Thursday. Arizona on the other hands looks poised for a bit of a letdown here after eight straight victories, most recently a 66-56 win at home over Utah.

Note that the Buffs play with revenge today as the Wildcats have won eight of the last ten meetings. That said, the teams did split a pair of meetings last year. In fact, the last matchup was a nail-biter, but Arizona would end up holding on for the 82-78 victory in the Pac-12 Tournament on March 10th, 2016. 

Colorado enters averaging 74.3 PPG, while conceding 68.1. Keep your eyes on White, who leads the team with 16.3 points, plus 4.1 assists per game. 

Arizona enters averaging 73.8 PPG, while conceding 60.1. Lauri Markkanen leads the way with 15.5 points and 7.2 boards per contest. 

I’ll point out that Colorado is 2-0 ATS in its last two as a road dog of 12 points or more, while Arizona is just 1-3 ATS in its last four when playing on one or less days rest.

I think Arizona comes in a bit complacent here and the determined Buffaloes keep this one closer than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Wildcard GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Seattle Seahawks (8:15 EST).

The 9-7 Detroit Lions are in Seattle to take on the 10-5-1 Seahawks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

Detroit backed its way into the postseason, losing its final three of the year to finish in second place in the NFC North. Seattle was 3-3 over its final three games.

When these teams met in Week 4 last year, Seattle came out on top 13-10. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a much bigger rout today. 

Detroit could have won the division and secured a first round bye with a win over the Packers in Week 17, but QB Matt Stafford struggled again. Stafford had an overall good year, finishing with 4,327 passing yards and a 24:10 TD to INT ratio, but the run game struggled. In all the Lions would finish ranked 20th in the NFL with an average of 21.6 PPG. Defensively the team is average as well, conceding 22.4 PPG, ranked 13th.

Seattle is back in the playoffs for a fifth straigh tseason. QB Russell Wilson had 4,219 yards and a 20:11 TD to INT ratio. WR Doug Baldwin made 94 catches for 1,128 receiving yards. In the end the Hawks averaged 22.1 PPG, ranked 18th overall, while conceding just 18.2, ranked third.

I’ll point out that Detroit is just 3-5 ATS on the road this year and just 2-4 ATS in its last six off a loss against a division rival, while Seattle is 5-3 ATS its last eight at home and 3-1 ATS in its last four against teams with winning records. 

It’s going to be cold in Seattle on Saturday night and there’s no question that the conditions favor the home side. I think the Hawks’ defense will be the difference maker today and expect Stafford and company to once again have a hard time finding any consistency. Play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Delaware (7:00 EST).

I think this one favors the home side. 

The Blue Hens are looking to bounce back after getting hammered 90-54 to Northeastern on Thursday, the setback dropped them to 7-9 and 0-3 in the CAA. 

UNC Wilmington comes in complacent after its 18 point win over Drexel on Thursday. The Seahawks are now a comfortable 3-0 in the Colonial Athletic Association. 

UNC Wilmington is now 14-2, with its only two losses coming to MTSU and a 14 point road loss to Clemson. The Seahawks are a good team, but I simply feel this is a bad spot for it.

Delaware on the other hand comes in desperate and will be risking life and limb in front of the home town crowd today. Note that the Blue Hens would in fact outscore the Huskies by four in the second half of their last game and suffice it to say, I think the team carries that postiive momentum and tenacity into this one.

While I won’t be so bold as to predict an outright upset, I do definitely expect the hungry home side to keep this one competitive. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Indiana (5:00 EST).

The 11-4 Illinois Fighting Illini are in Indiana to take on the 10-5 Hoosiers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

It’ll be all hands on deck for the Hoosiers today, after rising to No. 3 in the Top 25 poll, they’ve now lost three straight and are in danger of falling out of the rankings. 

Conversely, I think this sets up as a letdown spot for the Illini after winning seven of their last eight. 

If recent history is any precedence, then the home side has to be liking its chances today, as it would go on to take both games last year by wide margin, a 103-69 victory at home and a 74-47 effort on the road. 

The Illini may have won seven of eight, but they did lose their conference opener at Maryland 84-59, before then bouncing back with a 75-70 win over Ohio State. 

League play began for Indiana with an 87-83 loss to Nebraska at home before losing by 15 to the ACC’s Louisville, then followed by a five point loss to Wisconsin. But as mentioned above, the Hoosiers won both meetings last year by a combined 61 points. 

I’ll point out that Illinois is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven on the road and just 1-4 ATS in its last five as an underdog in the seven to 12.5 points range, while Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home fav in the seven to 12.5 points range and 7-2 ATS in its last nine following an ATS loss. 

Is Indiana as bad as its recent record would indicate? Are the Illini as good as their current win skein would indicate? I think the answer is a resounding “no” to both of those questions.

I like the hungry home side to put the foot on the gas and to comfortably pull away down the stretch. Play on the Hoosiers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Ohio (9:00 EST).

The Kent State Golden Flashes are in Ohio to take on the Bobcats. Kent State is 9-5, while Ohio is 9-3. Both teams won their respective conference openers, but for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

The Golden Flashes most recently topped the Ball State Cardinals 100-90, led by Jaylin Walker’s 21 points. Note though that the Flashes have the third lowest three-point percentage in the conference and Kent State is at the very bottom of the conference when it comes to field-goal percentage. 

The Bobcats demolished WMU in their opener 89-58. Antonio Campbell led the way with 22 points. Ohio would go on to shoot 50 percent from the floor and almost 52 percent from behind the arc. The Bobcats have dominated from range, ranked as the No. 1 team in the conference in connecting on 40 percent of their attempts. 

I’ll point out that Kent State is just 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 against teams with a winning straight up record and only 2-9-1 in its last 12 on the road, while Ohio is 5-2 ATS in its last seven following a SU win of more than 20 points.

Ohio is 8-0 at home with an average margin of victory of 17 points. Kent State is just 1-2 in its last three road games and is overclassed in every department tonight. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Pacifc (7:00 EST).

The 6-9 Pacific Tigers are in San Diego to take on the 7-7 Toreros and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

The Tigers are the much “hungrier” team in my opinion after losing six of nine, including an 81-61 setback to Gonzaga in their last outing. Jacob Lamping was a bright spot with 18 points on 9 of 11 shooting. So far Pacific averages 71.2 PPG.

The Toreros are regressing as the season has progressed, a five-game win streak has now been followed by back-to-back losses, most recently a 72-60 defeat to St. Mary’s. Brett Bailey led the way in the setback with 18 points. So far San Diego averages 73 PPG.

I’ll point out though that Pacific is 8-6 ATS in its last 14 after allowing 80 points or more, while San Diego is just 1-2 ATS this year after scoring 60 points or more.

While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing the poitns as I think the visitors matchup extremely well in this one. Play on Pacific.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Santa Clara (10:00 EST).

The 9-5 Portland Pilots are in Santa Clara to take on the 7-8 Broncos and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

The Pilots look poised for a ledown here in my opinion after two straight wins, most recently a 73-60 victory at home over Pepperdine on December 31st. The Broncos are 1-1 in conference play after hammering San Francisco 72-58 on Saturday. 

Alec Wintering had 23 points for Portland in the win over the Waves on Saturday. So far the Pilots average 77.6 PPG, while conceding 72.6. 

KJ Feain had 22 points, while Jared Brownridge added 20 in the Broncos win over the Dons on Saturday. Note that Santa Clara went 13 of 26 from beyond the arc. The Broncos average just 67.9 PPG, but allow just 66.6 per contest.

I’ll point out that Portland is just 2-4 ATS this year when playing the role of underdog and only 1-2 ATS after allowing 60 points or less, while Santa Clara is 2-1 ATS after allowing 60 points or less and 4-2 ATS against teams with winning records.

I think the Pilots come into this one on “cruise control” and the home side takes advantage. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* NON-CONF SIDE OF THE MONTH is the Utah Jazz (7:35 EST).

The 22-14 Utah Jazz are in Toronto to take on the 23-11 Raptors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. 

Toronto returns home after an extended road-trip, there’s no question that this one does indeed set up as a classic “letdown” spot for the Raptors. They lost 110-82 at San Antonio most recently on Tuesday. 

Utah continues its Eastern road swing and enters off a 115-104 road loss to Boston. 

Note that the Jazz play with revenge here after falling 104-98 to the Raptors back on December 21st.

It was a rare weak defensive effort for Utah in the setback to the Celtics. Overall the Jazz shot a solid 46 percent. The setback snapped a four-game win streak, but Utah still sits in first place in the Northwest division standings. 

Note that the Jazz average only 99 PPG, while conceding just 94.5, which ranks No. 1 in the league.

The Raptors average 110.3 PPG, while conceding 103.4.

I’ll point out that Utah is 7-2 ATS this year in revenging a home loss against an opponent and 3-1 ATS after a loss by ten points or more, while Toronto is a deplorable 0-9 ATS after scoring 85 points or less.

As mentioned off the top, I think this one sets up as a natural “letdown” spot for the Raptors after returning home from a lengthy road trip. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Hofstra (7:00 EST).

The 4-11 James Madison Dukes are at Hofstra to take on the 9-6 Pride and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

I think the Dukes are primed for a letdown here after three straight vivctories. Conversely, the Pride will be anxious to take out their frustrations on someone after falling 95-93 in OT to William and Mary.

Oh ya, James Madison also won both meetings against Hofstra last season. Both in overtime.

It’s payback time for the Pride!

James Madison got out to a slow start, losing 11 of its first 12 games, but it has to be feeling pretty content after the three straight victories and two conference wins. The Dukes are poor on the offensive end though, averaging 66.4 PPG. They do however own a tough defense which concedes 69.9, ranked 134th overall. 

The Pride had a three-game win skein snapped in the OT setback to William and Mary. Hofstra did shoot a solid 50 percent in the loss. Note that the Pride average 80.1 PPG, ranked 60th overall, while conceding 76.5.

I’ll point out that James Madison is 2-7 ATS as an underdog this year and 1-5 ATS on the road, while Hofstra is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 off a loss against a conference rival.

The Dukes have been playing over their heads of late. Expect the home side to push the pace and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Wyoming (10:00 EST).

The 11-4 Wyoming Cowboys are at Fresno State to take on the 9-5 Bulldogs and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. 

I think Wyoming is the “hungrier” team today as it’s lost two of its last three, most recently to USC and UNLV. 

The Bulldogs enter this one after snapping a two-game slide with a 77-76 win over Nevada on New Year’s Eve. 

Wyoming held the Rebels to just 39.1 percent from the field, but UNLV still topped 80 points. Justin James was a bright spot, scoring a game-high 17 points. In all, four players average double figures.

Fresno State has gotten inconsistent play from its starters of late. Since opening the season with a double-double in a win over Texas-San Antonio, starter Cullen Russo has yet to duplicate that feat since.

I’ll point out that Wyoming is 2-0 ATS already this year after allowing 80 points or more, while Fresno State is just 14-15 ATS in its last 29 when playing the role of favorite.

I think Wyoming bounces back after two straight losses and expect Fresno State to continue to struggle with consistency. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Notre Dame (9:00 EST).

The 12-2 Louisville Cardinals are in Notre Dame to take on the 12-2 Fighting Irish and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

The Cardinals look primed for a letdown here in my opinion after downing Indiana 76-62 on the road last time out. Notre Dame enters off a 78-77 OT road win over Pittsburgh and will look to keep the momentum rolling in front of the home town crowd.

And if recent history is any precedence, then the Irish have to be loving their chances today as they’d take last year’s meeting 71-66. 

Donavan Mitchell scored a career-high 25 points in the win over the Hoosiers for Louisville. He leads the team with 12.1 PPG. So far the Cardinals average 76.1 PPG, while conceding 60.4.

The Irish held Pittsburgh to just 37.5 percent shooting from the field in their big win. Steve Vasturia had 15 points and is now third in team scoring with 14.9 PPG. The Irish feature a high-powered scoring attack with averages 83.2 PPG and also a strong defense which concedes just 66.2.

I’ll point out that Louisville is just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 on the road, while Notre Dame is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 in front of the home town crowd.

Four players average 13 or more points for the Irish and I think this incredible depth will prove to be the difference tonight. Play on Notre Dame.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Michigan State (6:30 EST0.

Rutgers has just three conference wins since joining the Big Ten in 2014 and it hasn’t won a road game yet. 

Unfortunately for the Scarlet Knights, I don’t foresee anything changing this evening as MSU continues to get better as the season wears on.

Rutgers enters off a 60-47 home loss to Penn State. Mike Williams was a bright spot with his third career double-double, finishing with 16 points and ten boards. It wasn’t enough though as the Scarlet Knights would go on to commit 17 turnovers. In all Rutgers would make a season-low 28.6 percent of their field goal attempts and go just 3 of 20 from behind the arc.

The Spartans finished a tough non-conference schedule with a 7-5 record and most recently downed Northwestern 61-52 on Friday. Alvin Ellis III led the way with 16 points in that one. Note that MSU is expected to welcome back Miles Bridges to the lineup tonight, he’s missed the last seven games with an ankle injury. Bridges is averaging 16.6 points and 8.8 boards. 

I’ll point out that Rutgers is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 road games against a team with a winning home record and just 7-25 ATS in its last 32 following a SU loss, while MSU is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 following an ATS win.

Last year the Spartans won 96-62 at home in this game, while shooting 53.1 percent from behind the arc, en route to tying the school record with 17 three-pointers. I’m expecting a similar final outcome this evening. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Kentucky (9:00 EST).

The 8-4 Texas A&M Aggies are in Kentucky to take on the 11-2 Wildcats and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

The Aggies enter off a 73-63 home loss to Tennessee on Friday, while the Wildcats would bounce back from a tough loss to in-state rival Louisville by hammering Ole Miss 99-76 in their conference opener. 

These teams met in the SEC Tournament Championship game on March 13, 2016 and the Wildcats won 82-77. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a much bigger margin of victory today. 

The Aggies looked bad in their loss to Tennessee, limited to just 34.4 percent shooting from the field and only 5 of 17 from behind the arc. So far A&M averages 74.3 PPG. The team is strong defensively though in allowing only 64.6 PPG. Tyler Davis leads the teams with 14.3 points plus 7.8 boards per night.

The Wildcats posted 60 first half points and never looked back in the beatdown over Ole Miss. Isaiah Briscoe had a triple-double with 19 points, ten board and 11 assists.

Kentucky is ranked third in the country with an average of 93.5 PPG and 189th scoring defense in coneding 72.1 PPG. 

I’ll point out though that the Aggies are just 1-5 ATS in their last six as an underdog and only 1-6 ATS in their last seven versus a team with a winning straight up record, while the Wildcats are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.

Texas A&M was exposed in the loss to Tennessee and now the team faces its stiffest test of the year in the hostile environment of Rupp Arena. I like the home side to roll in this one, lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* January Bowl LEGEND is on Oklahoma (8:30 EST).

Two losses in their first three games basically ended the Sooners’ chances at a return berth in the playoffs, but to their credit they never stopped playing hard, and their reward was nine straight victories, the school’s 10th Big 12 Conference championship and a berth in the Sugar Bowl. And Oklahoma comes roaring into the final game of the season, with a powerful offense that scored 34 or more points in every conference game. There is no reason to believe that the Sooners, who ended the season ranked 7th nationally, will pull up lame against Auburn. Oddsmakers made the Sooners 3.5-point favorites, and bettors feasted on that number, driving it up a full two points to the 5.5 where it now sits. The Sooners like to establish the run behind battering backs Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon, opening things up for more-than-capable QB Baker Mayfield. The defense has had some issues, but the O should once again be more than strong enough to compensate for whatever Auburn is able to put up on the scoreboard. The Tigers – who also started 1-2 and had trouble moving the ball against quality opponents – might not be able to hang in this one.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Appalachian State (8:00 EST).

The 5-7 Appalachian State Mountaineers are in Texas to take on the Arlington Mavericks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. 

I think the Mavs are poised for a letdown here after winning ten straight, most recenlty taking down Coastal Carolina on New Years Eve. 

Conversely, App State comes in hungry after falling to Texas State this past Saturday. Ronshad Shabazz had 19 points in the 67-58 setback. 

Kevin Hervey leads the way for Texas-Arlington, averaging 16 points and nine boards per game. 

I’ll point out though that App State is 10-6 ATS in its last 16 as a road dog of 12.5 points or more and 13-10 ATS in its last 23 when playing with one or less days rest, while Texas-Arlington is just 9-15 ATS in its last 24 off a win against a conference rival and just 9-13 ATS in its last 22 when playing with one or less days rest. 

Am I going to suggest to you to “sprinkle” a little on the money line? 

Of course not. I simply feel that the home side gets caught “looking past” the Mountaineers today. Grab as many points as you can.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Delaware (6:00 EST).

The 10-4 Charleston Cougars are in Delaware to take on the 7-7 Blue Hens and for a number of differnet reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

The Cougars opened their CAA scheudle with a road win over Elon, while the Blue Hens come in hungry after falling 58-56 at home to Hofstra. 

Joe Chealey leads the way for Charleston, he averages 14.2 PPG. The Cougars put up just 64.1 PPG, while ranked 11th on the defensive end in conceding just 59.5 PPG. 

The Blue Hens have six players that average at least 7.1 PPG, led by Ryan Daly who averages 12.6 PPG. So far Delaware averages 64.4 PPG, while allowing 64.7. 

I’ll point out that Charleston is just 14-39 ATS in its last 53 following an ATS victory, while Delaware is 5-0 in its last five against teams with a winning SU record and 6-1 ATS in its last seven as the underdog in this series.

These teams are very similar, but as mentioned off the top, I think the Blue Hens are the “hungrier” side. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Drexel (4:30 EST).

The 8-5 Northeastern Huskies are in Philadelphia to take on the 6-8 Drexel Dragons and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

I think the Huskies finally have a letdown tonight after winning four straight, most recently an 86-64 victory over William & Mary. 

Conversely, the Dragons will be extra motivated here after dropping their conference opener in a 78-67 road loss to James Madison. 

The Huskies are led by TJ Williams, who is averaging 21.1 PPG. Northeastern ranks 191st in the nation in scoring in putting up 73.7 PPG and at the defensive end are ranked 157 in conceding 70.7.

Drexel is led by Rodney Williams, who averages 16.5 PPG. The Dragons rank 134th in the country in scoring 76.2 PPG, while allowing 75.5. 

I’ll point out though that Northeastern is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a road fav of 3.5 to six points and just 11-14 ATS in its last 25 when playing with one or less days rest, while Drexel is 3-1 ATS in its last four when playing with one or less days rest and 3-1 in its last four following a conference game. 

Drexel is the hungrier side and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset. That said, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Dragons.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH is on Wisconsin (1:00 EST).

What a season it could have been for the Badgers, who will take a 10-3 record into the Cotton Bowl on Jan. 2 but could have easily gone undefeated. There were 7-point losses to Michigan and Penn State, and a 3-point overtime loss to Ohio State. Coulda, woulda, shoulda. Still, a date vs. Western Michigan in Arlington, Texas is not all that bad. The Badgers are making post-season play a regular thing, and they hope to make it three bowl wins in succession. Defense is Wisconsin’s calling card as the Badgers gave up only 15 points per game this season. Good thing, too, because the offense has had its share of problems behind redshirt freshman QB Alex Hornibrook (8 TD passes, 7 interceptions). Wisconsin gets it done with a solid offensive line blocking for workhorse back Corey Clement (1,304 yards and 14 TDs). Western Michigan was 13-0 during the regular season and had early victories over Big Ten entries Northwestern and Illinois, but is punching up in class. Bettors know this, and an opening line of 6.5 was quickly bet up to 7.5. If the Badgers pay attention they should be able to fly back to Madison with another bowl win.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Green Bay Packers (8:30 EST).

The 9-6 Green Bay Packers are in Detroit to take on the 9-6 Lions and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

This game will determine the winner of the NFC North. 

Green Bay enters on a five-game win streak, while Detroit comes in on the other end of the spectrum having dropped two in a row.

The Packers are riding the great play of QB Aaron Rodgers, who has thrown for 4,128 yards and 36 TD’s this year. Last week he had 347 yards and four TD’s, as well as scrambling for a fifth in the win over the Vikes.

Last week Matt Stafford was just 26 of 46 for 260 yards and an INT in his team’s 42-21 setback to the Cowboys. I think Stafford is regressing and believe he’ll be in for a long day against this amped up Packers’ secondary.

And note that Green Bay is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in Detroit, while the Lions are interestingly just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 against the NFC North.

Stafford’s play has been suffering because of a stagnant run game and I don’t see anything changing this week. Packers’ QB Rodgers on the other hand is on absolute fire right now. Lay the points with confidence.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Redskins (4:25 EST0.

The 10-5 New York Giants are in Washington to take on the 8-6-1 Redskins and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

The Giants are coming off a 24-19 road loss to Philadelphia, but would still go on to clinch their first playoff berth in five years after Tampa Bay fell to New Orleans. A win or loss this week has absolutely no effect whatsoever for the Giants as far as positioning, so the team is expected to rest most of the starters, including QB Eli Manning. Note even with Manning in the lineup, the Giants averaged just 19.4 PPG this year.

Washington though comes in off a 41-21 road win over Chicago to keep its playoff hopes alive. QB Kirk Cousins had 270 yards, one TD and zero INT’s. A few things need to happen for Washington to make the postseason, but the only thing the Redskins can control is laying everything on the line this weekend to try and secure the victory. Note that the Skins come into this one scoring an average of 25.7 points, ranked ninth overall.

This is a no-brainer for me, no need to overthink. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Eagles (1:00 EST).

The 13-2 Dallas Cowboys are in Philadelphia to take on the 6-9 Eagles and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

Dallas didn’t have a lot to play for on Monday night after already clinching the division title and home field throughout the playoffs, but the Cowboys would come out and hammer the Lions 42-21. 

The Eagles won’t be going down without a fight and come in with momentum after beating the Giants 24-19 at home last week. 

Note that Philadelphia plays with revenge today after falling 29-23 in Dallas earlier in the year.

Dallas been fantastic and has a legitimate shot at a Super Bowl run this year, but it truly has nothing to play for this week. It’s been reported that Tony Romo could see a lot of time in this one.

It’s time for Carson Wentz to cement his spot as next years starter for Philadelphia and put on a show for the home town crowd with a big performance today. So far Wentz has 3,537 yards, 14 TD’s and 14 INT’s. 

Last week the Eagles looked great on the defensive side of the field, holding New York to four field goals and intercepting Eli Manning three times.

I’ll also point out that Dallas is just 2-3 ATS this year against the division, while Philadelphia is 5-2 ATS in front of the home town crowd.

I think this one sets up perfectly for the much more motivated home side. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week 17 Las Vegas Insider is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET.

After a 4-0 SU & ATS preseason, the Vikings opened the 2016 season 5-0 SU & ATS, However, after returning from a Week 6 bye, the Vikings' season has 'crashed and burned,' as they will now just play to end the year at .500 after going 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS over their last 10 games. Chicago's season started poorly and since a Week 9 bye, the Bears are just 1-6 SU and limp into their season finale at 3-12. Only the 1-14 Browns and 2-13 Niners are worse.

The Bears are down to their third-string QB Matt Barkley, after injuries to Jay Cutler and backup Brian Hoyer. He's hardly ready for prime time, as he's been intercepted EIGHT times in he last two games. Execution has been an issue for Chicago all season, as the Bears have an NFL-low 10 takeaways and are a minus-16 in turnover-differential. "Minus-16 is a big reason we're sitting here at 3-12," head coach John Fox said. "It's not a good formula when you're minus-16." It's part of the reason that while the Chcago offense ranks 13th in total yards at 358.7 YPG, but the Bears are scoring only 17.9 PPG (28th). The Bears are hoping to avoid the franchise's worst record since the NFL expanded to 16 games in 1978 and the second-worst mark in team history after a 1-13 record back in 1969.

Minnesota has played itself out of postseason contention despite that 5-0 start and the Vikings are left searching for answers. "I really don't think the team lost confidence, I didn't lose confidence," Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer said. "Our penalties were up this year; our pre-snap penalties were up especially. Offensive penalties were up this year. There's a lot of things to evaluate and try and figure out why." The Vikings' once-stout defense has allowed 72 points the past two weeks but the Vikings still rank 2nd in yards allowed (314.2 YPG) and 8th in points allowed (19.8 per). Despite a non-existent running game which averages 72.1 YPG (32nd) on 3.1 YPC, Sam Bradford owns the highest completion percentage (71.3) in history and has received high marks across the board from Zimmer. “Maybe this is the best year he’s ever had,” Zimmer said. “If you put all those together and look at the things he’s had to deal with, I think he’s been amazing.” Bradford has a chance to eclipse the single-season completion percentage set by Drew Brees (71.2%) back in the 2011 season.

The Bears have been competitive at home but head into this Week 17 game 0-7 SU (2-5 ATS) on the road, getting outscored 26.7-to-15.3 PPG. Mike Zimmer is a fiery head coach and i expect him to have the primed for this revenge spot from a Week 8 loss on a MNF game in Chicago. Expect Bradford to be "on target" against a Chicago defense that has not generated a takeaway in FIVE of its last six games. The Vikings have covered 75 percent of their last 28 home games and have won their last four home games vs the Vikings. Make it five in row and with plenty of "room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on San Diego (9:00 EST).

The 7-6 San Diego Toreros are at St. Mary’s to take on the 11-1 Gaels and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. 

San Diego enters off an 80-74 loss at San Francisco, breaking a five game win streak. Saint Mary’s has won five straight, including a 72-60 win over Loyola Marymount on the 29th and suffice it to say, I think the home side is poised for a letdown here.

Note that San Diego plays with revenge after falling 60-43 and 79-46 to the Gaels last year.

Brett Bailey had 18 points and six boards in the loss to the Dons for San Diego and he leads the team with 18.5 points and 7.1 boards per game. San Diego averages 74 points and concedes 75.4. 

Saint Mary’s guard Emmett Naar had a season-high 19 points in the win over Loyola Marymount. The Gaels average 74.7 PPG and allow just 57.7, ranked third. 

I’ll point out though that San Diego is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six road games, while St. Mary’s is just 1-4-1 ATS in its last six following an ATS victory. I think the Gaels get caught a little flat-footed today and much improved San Diego does more than enough to cover with the large spread that it’s been afforded. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH on Ohio State (7:00 EST).

Thirty-six years after Woody Hayes famously laid out a Clemson player before calling it quits as Buckeye coach, the teams are at it again in the post-season, and the winner of what is shaping up as possibly the most exciting game of the season will get a chance to play for the national title. Video of the Hayes’s  sucker punch will no doubt be shown during the Fiesta Bowl broadcast, but the real fun will be on the field. Both teams have great offense and great defenses, both teams have good coaches, and both teams have excellent football pedigrees. The difference in this one could very well be OSU QB J.T. Barrett. Barrett was the best quarterback in the Big Ten this past season, and Clemson will have to figure out a way to limit his running ability. In fact, Barrett may wind up with 25 or more carries. That should open up the passing game, where the Buckeyes are looking for wideout Noah Brown to have a big game. The line on this one opened with Ohio State as a 3-point favorite, but has moved up a tick to 3.5. Look for a tight game, with in-game adjustments by OSU coach Urban Meyer giving the Buckeyes an edge.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Fresno State (7:00 EST).

The 12-2 Nevada Wolf Pack are at Fresno State to take on the 8-5 Bulldogs and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

The Bulldogs will be the “hungrier” teams today as they’ve lost two straight. Fresno State averages 72.2 PPG, while conceding 71.2. Karachi Edo leads the way for the Bulldgos with 13.5 points and 6.5 boards per game. 

The Wolf Pack is poised for a letdown here after winning seven straight in my opinion. Note that Nevada averages 78.4 PPG, while allowing 69.8. Marcus Marshall leads the charge with 20.6 PPG. 

I’ll point out though that Nevada is just 6-10 ATS in its last 16 off a win against a conference rival, while Fresno State is 5-0 ATS as an underdog this year and 4-0 ATS against teams with winning records.

I look for these strong trends to continue, play on Fresno State.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Texas State (5:30 EST).

The 5-6 Appalachian State Mountaineers are at Texas State to take on the 7-5 Bobcats and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

App State looks poised for a letdown here after back-to-back wins. Note that that Mountaineers are just 1-5 in their true road games. App State has eight players that average at least 6.5 PPG, but just one that averages in double figures in Ronshad Shabazz. 

The Mountaineers are 61st overall in putting up 80.1 PPG and on the defensive end they concede 74.0.

The Bobcats have won two straight and five of their last seven after getting by Tulane 69-66 in OT on the road. Kavin Gilder-Tilbury had 23 points in the victory and he leads the team in scoring with 15.5 PPG. The Bobcats average 68.9 PPG and concede just 61.9, ranked 23rd in points allowed overall. 

I’ll point out that App State is just 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven against teams with a winning SU record, while Texas State is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight as a home favorite.

The Mountaineers have played terrible on the road and now they face the best defense they’ve seen all year. I think App State’s offense stalls and the Bobcats do just enough to secure the ATS win. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on UCLA (11:00 EST).

The No. 2 UCLA Bruins are at Oregon State to take on the Beavers and the visitors will be out to atone for a loss at No. 21 Oregon on Wednesday night. 

The 13-1 Bruins enter off their first loss of the season after Oregon’s Dillon Brooks hit a 3-pointer with 0.8 seconds left in the eventual 89-87 setback. Big man Thomas Welch had 20 points and ten boards. 

Despite the setback, note that UCLA is still the best offensive team in the country, ranked first in shooting and assists and second in points (95.1 PPG). Oregon has a top 30 defense, so the 87 points on 53.1 percent shooting was still very impressive, even in the loss. 

The Beavers kept it close in a 70-63 home loss to No. 22 USC on Wednesday and the continubed absence of leading scorer Tres Tinkle, who will also miss tonight’s contest, is very evident. Stephen Thompson Jr. was a bright spot, posting a career high 23 points. 

I’ll point out that the Bruins are 5-0 ATS in thier last five following an ATS loss, while the Beavers are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight following an ATS victory.

The Beavers have so far disappointed and clearly the team will be eager to break the slide. But this is simply a bad spot for them, catching arguably the best team in the country off its first loss and hungry to take out its frustrations. I’m expecting a wire-to-wire beatdown, lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Dallas Mavericks (10:35 EST).

The Mavericks come to Golden State off a confidence building 101-89 road victory over the Lakers last night and I think they can carry that momentum over here.

Am I going to suggest to you to “sprinkle a little” on the money line? 

Of course not. I simply feel that the high-powered Warriors will “look past” the lowly Mavs today, as the team won’t play again until January 2nd.

Golden State averages 117.3 PPG, but is sub-par defensively, ranked in the lower-third in the league on that side of the floor.

The hungry Mavs will have their chances tonight. 

I’ll point out that Dallas is 10-7 ATS in its last 17 against clubs with winning records, while Golden State is interestingly just 1-6 ATS this year against the Southwest divsion and only 6-9 ATS against clubs with losing records.

Not surprisingly, the Mavs play with revenge today after losing by 21 at Oracle earlier in the year. The stage is now set for a much more competitive affair in my opinion though, so grab as many points as you can.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* December Bowl LEGEND is Florida State (8:00 EST).

The Seminoles had their sights set on a spot in the four-team championship playoffs this season, but that that went down the toilet in late October when FSU faded in the late going and lost to Clemson at home, 37-34. But the Orange Bowl is not a bad consolation prize, especially when you get to spend a week on South Beach getting ready for it. It’s hard to say what momentum means when a game is played more than a month after the conclusion of the regular season, but Florida State does come in with four wins in a row, and the Seminoles did win their final three by an average score of 40-11. So there’s that. More importantly, FSU is stacked with  quality players, including four unanimous All-ACC studs – running back Dalvin Cook, offensive tackle Rod Johnson, defensive end DeMarcus Walker and linebacker Tavarus McFaddden. Florida State is also catching Michigan at a good time – after a difficult season in which an emotional overtime loss to Ohio State cost the Wolverines their own shot at a berth in the Final Four. FSU is in prime position to win outright, even though they go in as 7-point underdogs.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Texas (8:00 EST).

The 6-6 Texas Longhorns are at Kansas State to take on the 11-1 WIldcats and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. 

UT opened the season ranked 21st in the nation, but has fallen on hard times and owns the conference’s worst record at the moment. Most recently the Longhorns fell 63-58 at home to Kent State. 

K-State though looks poised for a bit of a letdown in my opinion today, it’s lost just once this year and comes in on a six-game win skein. 

Tevin Mack leads the way for the Longhorns this year with 14.7 PPG and shooting over 40 percent from behind the arc.

The Wildcats most recently come off a 67-54 win over Gardner-Webb, but haven’t played in nine days. Will “rest lead to rust?” 

Note that Texas is 6-2 ATS in its last eight as a road dog and 10-4 ATS in its last 12 against the conference, while K-State is just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 following a SU victory and just 1-4 ATS in its last five against teams with a losing SU road record.

I think the Longhorns are the “hungrier” team today and expect them to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Michigan State (6:00 EST).

The 12-2 Northwestern Wildcats are at Michigan State to take on the 9-5 Spartans and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

So far the Spartans have looked shaky this year. The Wildcats have won nine straight and will be looking for an upset at the Breslin Center. 

But I think MSU finds a way to get the job done in this early conference battle.

Northwestern looks poised for a letdown after the extended stretch of excellence and after knocking off Penn State 87-77 to open Conference play. So far the Wildcats average 77.6 PPG, while conceding just 64.5. 

After a brutal 81-73 loss to Northeastern at home, MSU has posted back to back victories, most recently a 75-74 OT win at Minnesota. Nick Ward led the way with 22 points, while Alvin Ellis III came off the bench to contribute 20. 

I’ll point out that Northwestern is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven after scoring 80 points or more, while MSU is 6-2 ATS against teams with winning records this year.

I think it’s all hands on deck for the home side tonight as the Spartans look to defend their home floor. Despite struggling with offensive consistency, MSU still remains one of the best defensive teams in the country. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Sun Bowl PERFECT STORM is on UNC (2:00 EST).

The 9-3 Stanford Cardinal get ready to battle the 8-4 North Carolina Tar Heels in the Sun Bowl on Friday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors UNC.

Stanford closed the season with five straight wins, riding the strong play of RB Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey though won’t be playing in this bowl game, instead deciding to take his talents to the NFL. UNC is weak against the run, but now clearly catches a massive break in not having to face the dynamic Cardinal RB.

Tar Heels’ QB Mitch Trubisky has thrown for over 3,500 yards this year and is considered by many to be a Top ten pick. And he has plenty of weapons to throw to, including senior WR Ryan Switzer, who leads the team with 91 receptions and over 1,000 yards to go along with five major scores. Note that Trubisky has thrown 28 TD’s against just four INT’s this season.

I’ll point out that UNC is 3-1 ATS in non-conference games this year and 2-0 ATS off a loss against a conference rival, while Stanford is 0-2 ATS in its last two against teams with winning records.

If McCaffrey were playing, I’d probably be leaning towards Stanford in this one, but his absence is huge and will prove to be just too much for the Cardinal to overcome in my opinion. UNC can score with the best of them and I look for it to find a way to get the job done. Play on the Tar Heels.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Loyola Marymount (11:00 EST).

The 10-1 Saint Mary’s Gaels are at Loyola Marymount to take on the 7-4 Lions and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Gaels have won ten of their first 11, but the Lions have quietly been taking care of business as well, posting wins in five of their last six games. 

Saint Mary’s most recently beat lightweight South Carolina State 74-47. The Gaels are not great offensively, but get the job done with their smothering defensive play which holds opponents to an average of 57.5 PPG, ranked fourth in the country.

Loyola Marymount is led by a trio of top players in Brandon Brown (15.4 PPG), Stefan Jovanovic (11.5 PPG) and Buay Tuach (11.4 PPG). 

Note that Saint Mary’s has already struggled mightily in this spot for bettors, going 0-2 this year after allowing 60 points or less, while Loyola Marymount is 4-1 ATS this season as an underdog and 2-0 ATS against teams with winning records.

The Lions have lost 14 of the last 15 in this series, so to say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement. I think the Gaels come in a bit complacent and the much improved Lions keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Oklahoma State (9:00 EST).

The 10-3 Colorado Buffaloes get ready to battle the 9-3 Oklahoma State Cowboys in the Valero Alamo Bowl on Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Cowboys.

The Buffs lost 41-10 to Washington in the PAC 12 Championship game, while Oklahoma State fell 38-20 to Oklahoma in BIG 12 Championship game. 

Colorado QB Sefo Liufau had a solid overall season, finishing with 2,171 yards and an 11:6 TD to INT ratio, while also rushing for seven major scores as well. Liufau looked poor in the loss to the Huskies though with zero TD’s and three INT’s. 

The Buffaloes average 32.8 PPG and concede 20.5.

Oklahoma State is led by QB Mason Rudolph, who finished with 3,777 yards and a 25:4 TD to INT ratio. Keep your eyes on Cowboys’ WR James Washington as well, he finished with 1,209 receiving yards. 

Overall Oklahoma State concedes 28.1 PPG, while averaging 38.7, ranked 19th overall in the country. 

It’s interesting to note that Colorado is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games played in the month of December, while OK State is 4-1 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records and 4-0 ATS in its last four following an ATS loss. 

Ultimately I feel that the Cowboys’ ninth ranked passing game will be just too much for Colorado to keep up with. The Buffs struggled against a similar high-powered offense in the Huskies and things aren’t going to get any easier for the secondary in facing Rudolph and company. 

Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (8:05 EST). 

The 19-13 Boston Celtics are in Cleveland to take on the 23-7 Cavaliers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

I think the C’s finally have a letdown here after winning two straight and six of their last seven, most recently a 113-103 home victory over Memphis on Tuesday. 

Conversely, the Cavs are looking to start their new win skein after a five game streak was snapped in a 106-90 setback to Detroit on Monday. Note though that most of the Cavs starters were rested in that second game of the back-to-back after their epic come from behind 109-108 victory over the Warriors on Christmas Day (I had Cleveland in that one, part of my 5-0 Christmas Day sweep of the board).

Boston is 12th in the league in scoring with 105.4 PPG and 14th on the defensive end in conceding 103.3. 

Cleveland is fourth in league scoring with an average of 110.1 PPG and 13th overall defensively by conceding 103 PPG. I think it’s also important to point out that the Cavs rank second in three point shooting with 39.8 percent from behind the arc.

And note the the C’s are just 3-5 ATS this year when playing the role of underdog, while the Cavs are 5-1 ATS this season after a division game and 5-3 ATS when playing with two days of rest.

With a much “easier” game at home tomorrow night against the Heat, I think the visitors get caught looking ahead and the defending champs step up and take full advantage. Play on the Cavaliers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Oregon State (11:00 EST).

The 13-0 USC Trojans are at Oregon State to take on the 4-9 Beavers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

USC has its best record since 1971, but now opens league play against an Oregon State team which just snapped a five-game losing streak by hammering Kent State by 19 in its last outing (the same Kent State team which just beat Texas last night as a 13 point underdog). 

The Trojans hold a 69-65 all time advantage, but the Beavers are 40-29 in the series in front of the home town crowd. In fact, Oregon State has taken seven straight in this series and will be looking to carry that momentum over here.

I’ll point out that USC is just 2-4 ATS this month, while Oregon State is 4-2 ATS in its last six against good offensive teams which average 77-plus points per contest.

I think the Beavers come to play today to open league action and USC gets caught a little flat footed. While I won’t be so bold as to predict an outright upset, I do definitely feel this is too many points to be giving up. Play on Oregon State.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Golden State Warriors (10:35 EST).

The 22-8 Toronto Raptors are in Golden State to take on the 27-5 Warriors tonight and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Toronto has been playing great, but I think is primed for a letdown here after winning four in a row and eight of its last nine. 

The Warriors on the other hand look to bounce back and make a statement after a tough 109-108 Christmas Day loss in Cleveland (I had the Cavs in that one, part of a 3-0 NBA X-Mas day sweep and an overall 5-0 holiday card!). 

The Raptors were rolling right along on a seven game win streak before then falling to the Cavaliers at home a couple of weeks ago and now they face the best team in the West. It’s a very similar situation.

Also note, with a very winnable game tomorrow night in Phoenix, Toronto could even elect to rest some of its starters if this one gets out of reach.

I’ll point out that Toronto is just 2-3 ATS this year in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent, while Golden State is (not surprisingly), 14-10 ATS this season against poor defensive teams which allow 99-plus points per contest and also 6-4 ATS after a non-conference game. 

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* 33-Club Play is on the Utah Jazz (10:30 EST).

The 18-13 Utah Jazz are in LA to take on the 12-22 Lakers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitor. 

Utah looks to get back on track after dropping three straight, most recently a 104-98 home loss to Toronto on Friday. 

The Lakers though look primed for an immediate return to mediocrity after managing a 111-102 Christmas Day “home” win over the Clippers. 

If recent history is any precedence, then the Jazz have to be loving their chances for a bounce back performance tonight as they’ve won six of the last seven in the series, including the first two meetings this year, the most recent a 107-101 win in LA back on December 5th.

Utah is is ranked 24th in the league in scoring at 99.1 PPG, but is No. 1 in scoring defense in conceding just 95.2. George Hill is one of four players which average double figures with 20 points plus 4.2 assists per contest. I think it’s worthy to note that despite struggling on the offensive end so far this season, the Jazz are eighth in the league in three point shooting at 36.3 percent.

LA is ranked 16th in the league in scoring at 104.5 PPG, but is brutal on the defensive end, conceding 110.6 PPG, ranked 27th overall. Lou Williams leads the way with 18.7 points and 3.2 assists per game. 

I’ll point out that Utah is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game, while LA is just 2-8 ATS in its last ten when playing on one days rest and only 1-5 ATS in its last six following a SU victory.

I think the stage is set for the hungry Jazz to get back on track with a convincing effort against the consistently inconsistent Lakers. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Baylor (10:15 EST).

The 10-2 Boise State Broncos get ready to battle the 6-6 Baylor Bears in the Cactus Bowl on Tuesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the underdog. 

Boise State lost to Wyoming and Air Force and was just nine points away from playing in the Cotton Bowl. Suffice it to say, I think this one sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for the Broncos, who I think will come in a bit disinterested in this “lesser” Bowl game.

Baylor won its first six games, but then would drop its final six of the season. Says interim coach Jim Grobe: “I think our guys are looking forward to coaching these kids and getting them ready for a bowl game. So I feel good about playing in a bowl game,” he said. “This is going to be it for me, so I’d like to win it for sure.”

Shock Linwood isn’t playing for the Bears, but note that Baylor has excelled in this spot for bettors, going 3-1 ATS in its last four as an underdog and 3-1 ATS in its last four games played in the month of December, while Boise State has stumbled in this position, going just 2-4 ATS in its last six when playing with two or more weeks of rest and note that it’s just 3-9 ATS when playing the role of favorite this season. 

I think the Bears keep this one close for Grobe until the final moments. Grab as many points as you can, play on Baylor.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Washington State (7:00 EST).

The 8-4 Minnesota Golden Gophers are ready to battle the 8-4 Washington State Cougars in the Holiday Bowl at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego on Tuesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Cougars.

This is a battle of contrasting styles and suffice it to say, I think WSU’s high-flying offensive ways will be just too much for Minnesota to keep up with once it’s all said and done. 

Minnesota is backing its way into “Bowl Season,” as it lost two of its last three and has ten players suspended for this game tonight. In their final outing, the Golden Gophers fell 31-17 at Wisconsin. 

Minnesota is 31st in points allowed in conceding an average of 22.9 PPG, but I think it will have its hands full with WSU’s high-powered offense. The Golden Gophers are ranked 59th in scoring with just 30.3 PPG, the offense is led by RB Rodney Smith, who has 1,084 rushing yards and 15 TD’s this year. 

The Cougars are ranked second in the nation in passing, QB Luke Falk has 4,204 yards, 37 TD’s and just ten picks. While the Minnesota defense has been solid overall, the one area it’s struggled in is against the pass. And that’s where WSU clearly has the advantage today. Overall the Cougars are 14th in scoring with an average of 40.3 PPG and defensively the team concedes 27.2 PPG, which is ranked 28th.

I’ll point out though that Minnesota is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven non-conference games, while WSU is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 following a SU loss of more than 20 points. 

Neither team ended the year the way it wanted, but Minnesota is dealing with off-field issues right now as well. I think WSU does more than enough on both sides of the ball to easily secure the ATS cover. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK is on Rutgers (7:00 EST).

The 11-2 Rutgers Scarlet Knights are ready to battle the 11-2 Wisconsin Badgers on Tuesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. 

Note that Rutgers plays with revenge today after falling 79-57 in Madison last year.

The Scarlet Knights already have four more total wins than last season’s 7-25 squad. Now Rutgers looks to get back on track after a five-game win streak was snapped in a 72-61 setback to in-state rival Seton Hall in its last outing.

I think Rutgers matches up well against the Badgers though: note that Wisconsin is ranked second nationally at +14.2 rebounds per game, while the Scarlet Knights are +11.5, good for sixth overall. Corey Sanders leads the way for Rutgers with 17 PPG.

The only losses that Wisconsin has come against ranked squads Creighton and North Carolina. Last time out the Badgers hammered Florida A&M 90-37. Nigle Hayes was the Big Ten’s Preseason Players of the Year.

I’lll point out though that Rutgers is already 2-1 ATS on the road this season, as well as 5-2 ATS after a non-conference game, while Wisconsin is just 2-3 ATS in its last five after scoring 80 points or more and only 2-6 ATS in its eight after allowing less than 50 points in its previous game.

A year ago the Badgers won this game by 22. Clearly the Scarlet Knights are a different team this season than last. In my opinion, this is too many points to be giving up, play on Rutgers.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Temple (3:30 EST).

The 10-3 Temple Owls are battling the 6-6 Wake Forest Deacons in the Military Bowl on Tuesday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the high-flying Owls.

Temple won the AAC and finished with an 8-1 conference record, while Wake Forest lost its final three and finished with a 3-5 record in ACC play.

The Owls won their final seven games and crushed Navy 34-10 in the Championship Game. Philip Walker had two TD’s and zero INT’s in the victory and would finish with almost 2,900 passying yards, along with 20 TD’s for the season. Walker had 12 INT’s overall on the year, but note that he didn’t throw one over the final three games of the season.

Temple features a dynamic tandem at running back with Ryquell Armstead and Jahad Thomas, each who rushed for 918 yards on the season. The Owls enter averaging 32.8 PPG, while conceding only 17.2 PPG, ranked eighth overall in the country. 

Wake QB John Wolford had 1,591 passing yards and a poor 7:9 TD:INT ratio this year. The offense centers around the ground game as well, with three players rushing in the 500 yard range. Note though that the Demon Deacons average just 19.2 PPG. The defense has been their strong point, conceding only 21.8 PPG, ranked 21st in the nation.

I’ll point out though that Temple is 23-8 ATS in its last 31 following an ATS victory, while Wake Forest is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game.

I simply can’t see the Demon Deacons putting any points on the board against Temple’s top ranked defense. The Owls clearly possess the superior offense and in my opinion, this one has all the makings of a lop-sided rout from start to finish. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Detroit Lions (8:30 EST).

The 9-5 Detroit Lions are in Dallas to take on the 12-2 Cowboys and for a couple of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. 

Detroit won five-straight before falling to the Giants on the road last week. Meanwhile, the Cowboys defeated the Bucs 26-20 on Sunday night Football last week and have clinched a first round bye in the playoffs already.

It’s a natural letdown spot, but also note that the team has already statetd that it will rest any starters which it deems in risk of any sort of injury and it’s even been rumored that backup QB Tony Romo could see some action in the second half.

Lions’ QB Matt Stafford struggled last week, but I’m expecting a bounce back here as Dallas ranks 28th in defending the pass this season. 

The combination of RB Ezekiel Elliot and QB Dak Prescott, along with a Top 10 defensive unit and arguably the best offensive line in the league makes the Cowboys one of the favorites at this point to win Super Bowl 51. But as mentioned off the top, Dallas has already sewn up its positioning, so a mental letdown in this spot isn’t too difficult to imagine happening.

I’ll also point out that Detroit is 5-3 ATS this season when playing the role of underdog and 4-2 ATS against teams with winning records, while Dallas is just 3-4 ATS against clubs with winning records and just 12-15 ATS in its last 27 when playing the role of favorite.

While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points, play on Detroit.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Indiana Pacers (8:00 EST).

The 15-16 Indiana Pacers are in Chicago to take on the 14-15 Chicago Bulls and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. 

I played against the Bulls on Christmas Day and they’d go on to lose badly in San Antonio last night. Suffice it to say, I think the visitors can take advantage of the schedule and at the very least, take this one down to the wire.

If recent history is any precedence, then the Pacers have to be loving their chances tonight as they’d beat the Bulls 111-94 at home back on November 5th.

Let’s face it, both teams are really struggling right now. Indiana is paced by Paul George, who averages 21.7 points and seven boards per contest.

Chicago got out to a great start, but has since come crashing back down to Earth. Jimmy Butler leads all scorers with an average of 24.4 PPG. The Bulls do average 101 PPG, but are ranked last in the league in three-point shooting percentage at 30.8. 

I’ll point out that Indiana is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five when playing with three or more days rest, while Chicago is just 1-4 ATS this year as a home fav in the two to six points range and only 5-9 ATS against teams with losing records. 

The Pacers are the “fresher” team and I think that’ll be the difference maker today. Play on Indiana.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Miami Ohio (11:00 AM EST).

The 6-6 Miami Ohio RedHawks are battling the 5-7 Mississippi State Bulldogs in the St. Petersburg Bowl on Monday morning and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the RedHawks.

Miami Ohio started the year 0-6, but then won its final six games, beating Ball State 21-20 at home on November 22nd to become bowl eligible. Suffice it to say, I think the RedHawks incredible momentum gets carried over into this one.

Mississippi State would snap a two-game slide by hammering Ole Miss 55-20 in the Egg Bowl on November 26th.

The RedHawks would finish 73rd in the nation in passing offense with 227.9 YPG and 1`1th in scoring offense with 23.4 PPG. Miami Ohio is stout defensively though in conceding just 24.3 PPG, ranked 41st in the country. QB Gus Ragland played half the season and finishd 93 of 149 for 1,274 yards, with 15 TD’s and no INT’s. 

The Bulldogs would finish 52nd in scoring offense with an average of 31.5 PPG, but 97th in scoring defense, allowing 33.1 PPG. QB Nick Fitzgerald finished 172 of 334 for 2,281 yards, 21 TD’s and ten INT’s. 

I’ll point out though that the RedHawks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight after posing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game, while the Bulldogs are just 1-5 ATS in their last six following an ATS victory. 

While I won’t be so bold as to predict an outright upset, I do think that coach Chuck Martin and his staff can keep this one competitive. Grab as many points as you can, play on Miami Ohio.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Kansas City Chiefs (8:30 EST).

The 8-6 Denver Broncos are in Kansas City to take on the 10-4 Chiefs on Christmas Day and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

Denver comes in off a disheartening 16-3 home loss to New England, while KC also enters off a brutal 19-17 setback to the Titans last week.

But if recent history is an evidence, then the Chiefs have to be liking their chances for a bounce back performance here, as they’d beat the Broncos in Denver 30-27 in OT in Week 12. 

The Broncos started the season strong, but have been consistently inconsistent over the last two months. Last week QB Trevor Siemian had 283 yards, no TD’s and one INT. RB Jordan Norwood would fumble the ball twice, part of three total turnovers in the game for the defending champs.

The defense continues to be Denver’s strong point, last week holding Tom Brady to just 188 passing yards and no TD’s. The unit concedes just 18.4 PPG overall.

But I think that defense has a letdown here against the dangerous Chiefs offense which is itching to take out its frustrations on someone after last week’s collapse. 

KC actually had a 17-7 halftime lead, but was unable to score in the second half against Tennesse and it eventually blew it. QB Alex Smith was just 15 of 28 for 163 yards, zero TD’s and one INT. 

I like Smith to bounce back here though, note that the Chiefs average 22.8 PPG, which ranks them 15th overall. 

But the biggest difference maker for me today is KC’s underappreciated defensive unit, one which concedes just 19.6 PPG, ranked eighth overall. 

And from a trend based stand point, this one absolutely sets up great for the home side, as note that Denver is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records and only 1-5 ATS in its last six divisional games, while KC is 5-0 ATS in its last five following an ATS loss, 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records.

Denver’s defense is amazing, but as good as it is, is as bad as the offense is, managing just one TD over the last two games combined. And now the Broncos face one of the best defenses in the league in a critical game on national TV on its own field (note that KC has given up just one passing TD over its last three outings). 

All five of the Chiefs home victories this year have come by at least five points and I expect that and the rest of the trends listed above, to continue on Christmas Day.

Play on Kansas City as my 2016/17 NFL Game Of The Year!

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the OKC Thunder (8:00 EST).

If you’ve followed me for any length of time, you know that I base my picks on many different criteria.

For this particular selection though we’re keeping it simple. OKC has been on a big role of late, riding the amazing play of versatile swingman Russell Westbrook and when it faced the Wolves on November 25th, it would come away with a relatively simple 112-92 victory.

Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a repeat performance here.

Minnesota had won three of its last four before a 109-105 setback to the Kings in its last game and with a home contest against Atlanta tomorrow night, I think the visitors come in flat on Christmas day.

And from a trend based stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up beautifully for the home side as Minnesota is just 7-10 ATS this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent and only 6-9 ATS against teams with winning records, while OKC is 5-1 ATS as a home fav of 3.5 to six points and 9-6 ATS in its last 15 after allowing 105 points or more.

I’m expecting a rout from start to finish, lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* REVENGE GAME OF THE YEAR is on Illinois State.

The 7-4 Illinois State Redbirds look to avenge a loss to the 6-5 Tulsa Golden Hurricane from just two weeks ago.

Tulsa averages 72.4 PPG on 43.3 percent shooting and is led by Jaleel Wheeler, who posts 12.8 points and three assists per contest. Note though that the Golden Hurricane have lost five of their last six neutral site games.

Illinois State has won six of its last eight and is averaging 69.7 PPG. Deontae Hawks leads the charge with 15 points and 7.1 boards per contest. The Redbirds have struggled in neutral site games as well, but note that they’re 6-1 ATS in their last seven following an ATS loss.

But as mentioned off the top, this pick is primarily based on the “revenge factor.” These teams met on December 7th in Tulsa and the Golden Hurricane came away with the 70-68 SU victory.

It’s now payback time for the Redbirds! Note that Illinois State is already 1-0 ATS this year in revenging a road loss against an opponent, while Tulsa is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten after allowing 80 points or more.

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry 

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Antonio Spurs (5:00 EST).

The 14-15 Chicago Bulls are in San Antonio on Chistmas Day to take on the 24-6 Spurs and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

The Bulls have lost five of their last six, most recently a listless 103-91 setback at Charlotte on Friday. 

The Spurs enter on the other end of the spectrum, coming off their sixth win in their last seven games by stompging the Trailblazers 110-90 on Friday. 

Note that San Antonio plays with revenge today as well after falling 95-91 in Chicago back on December 8th. 

Chicago enters 23rd in the league in scoring at 101 points per game and sixth overall in scoring defense in conceding 99.7 PPG.

I’ll also point out that Bulls are last in the league in three pointers in averaging just six per game.

The Spurs rank 18th overall in scoring offense at 104.1 PPG, while being ranked third in scoring defense in conceding 97.9. And note, San Antonio ranks No. 1 in the league with a solid 40.8 percent shooting from range.

Also note that Chicago is 0-4 ATS in its last four on the road and 0-4 ATS in its last four when playing on one days rest, while San Antonio is 5-1 ATS in its last six after scoring 100 points or more in its previous contest.

With the national spot light in San Antonio on Christmas Day, I’m expecting the deeper and battle tested Spurs to find a way to get the job done once it’s all said and done. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is the Cleveland Cavaliers (2:30 EST).

The 27-4 Golden State Warriors are in Cleveland to take on the 22-6 Cavaliers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

I simply feel that home floor can’t be overlooked in this one. Christmas Day games almost always favor the home side.

Besides, Golden State looks poised for a letdown here after winning seven straight, most recently a 119-113 road victory over Detroit.

Cleveland has won four straight, most recently a 119-89 destruciton of Brooklyn at home on Friday. 

The Cavs will also be extra motivated today to atone for a 132-98 setback to the Warriors in Cleveland on January 18th, 2016.

Golden State has the No. 1 offense at 117.5 PPG, but the defense is poor, conceding an average of 104.1 PPG, ranked 16th overall.

Cleveland is the No. 4 offense at 110.9 PPG, while ranked 1th overall on the defense end in conceding 102.7 PPG. 

I’ll point out though that Golden State is just 1-5 ATS in its last six road games and 0-4 ATS after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game, while Cleveland is 8-1 ATS in its last nine after scoring 100 points or more and 7-1 ATS in its last eight following a SU victory.

While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Cleveland.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New Orleans Saints (4:25 EST).

The 8-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in New Orleans to take on the 6-8 Saints and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Tampa Bay lost 26-20 to Dallas last Sunday, while the Saints come off a hard-fought 48-41 road win at Arizona last week. 

Note that the Saints play with revenge today after falling 16-11 to the Bucs two weeks ago.

Tampa’s playoff hopes took a big hit last week, it’s now tied with Green Bay on the outside of the Wildcard picture. Note the Bucs are conceding an average of 24 PPG, ranked 18th overall, while posting 22.4 per game, placing them 18th in the league.

Last week Saints’ QB Drew Brees had 389 yards, four TD’s and no INT’s. Suffice it to say, I expect the veteran to carry that momentum over here. 

And I’ll point out that Tampa is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten “dome” games, while New Orleans is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 in revenging a loss against an opponent.

I think the stage is now set for a big Tampa letdown and I look for Brees and company to take full advantage. Lay the points with confidence.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* NFL Week 16 Las Vegas Insider is on the Buf Bills at 1:00 ET.

The Dolphins won 34-13 in frigid New Jersey last Saturday night, improving to 9-5. They currently own the No. 6 seed in the AFC playoff picture, the second of two wild cards. Miami stays on the road this Sunday and travels to upstate New York to take on the Buffalo Bills, who at 7-7, have about a one percent chance of making the playoffs. It will again be cold (expected to be in the 30s) but not nearly as bad as last Saturday night.

The Dolphins’ six-game winning streak was snapped 38-6 by the Ravens in Week 13 but Miami rebounded with a 26-23 win over the Cardinals in Week 14. However, the Dolphins lost starting QB Ryan Tannehill to a left knee injury in that contest. The Dolphins selected Tannehill in the first round of the 2012 draft and he had started the first 77 games of his career but it was Matt Moore who took place last Saturday against the Jets. Moore went 3-of-5 for 47 yards and directed the game-winning drive  (ended in a FG) against the Cards but he entered the game against the Jets having attempted just 35 passes since the start of the 2012 season. Surprisingly, in tough conditions, he completed 12 of 18 for 236 yards with four TD passes and one INT (126.2 QB rating!).

The Bills jumped at the opportunity to hire Rex Ryan after the 2014 season, when he was fired by the Jets. I was never quite sure why, as he had gone 26-38 the previous four years with New York, without a winning season. As he is prone to do, Rex opened his “big fat mouth” right away, promising to return the Bills to the playoffs (Buffalo’s last postseason appearance came back in 1999). Well, after an 8-8 season last year, the Bills are 7-7 in 2016 and as noted earlier, have about a one-percent chance of making this year’s postseason field. Ryan is supposed to be a “defensive guy,” yet his Bills are a middle-of-the-pack 16th in yards allowed (349.2 YPG) and 14th in points allowed (22.4 PPG). I’m not quite sure what to make of QB Trod Taylor, as he hasn’t made many mistakes (14-6 ratio) and is an excellent runner (520 yards on 6.3 YPC with six TDs) but the Bills rank 31st (of 32 teams) in passing at 182.6 YPG. They are the NFL’s top rushing team, (163.6 YPG on 5.5 YPC), led by RB McCoy, who has 1,129 yards on 5.5 YPC with 12 TDs.

It seems highly unlikely that Moore will repeat last week’s heroics plus RB Ajayi, who had back-to-back 200-year rushing games in Weeks 6 & 7 (as well as an 111-yard effort in his next game), has not reached 80 yards rushing in any of his last six outings. He’s averaged only 51.3 YPG (on 3.0 YPC) over his last four. Meanwhile, the Bills (the league's No. 1 rushing team) will be up against a Miami rush D which ranks 30th against the run, allowing 132.5 YPG on 4.8 YPC. The Dolphins have lost at Buffalo by 16, 19 and 19 points the past three years, while compiling a woeful total of just 27 points (9.0 per!). Last week’s ATS win at the Jets marked just Miami’s second cover in its last 14 December games. The Bills earn a top rating of 10*s in this one.

Good luck...Larry