My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Ind Colts at 10:00 ET.

The Colts opened the 2019 season with back-to-back road games, losing 30-24 (in OT) at LA vs the Chargers in Week 1, before winning 19-17 at Tennessee in Week 2 as a three-point underdog. Indy returned to Lucas Oil Stadium in Week and held on to beat the Falcons, 27-24. The Colts are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS. The sudden and unexpected retirement of Andrew Luck has clearly NOT negatively affected the Colts. Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew Luck but he was superb against the Falcons, completing his first 16 attempts while finishing 28-of-37 for 310 yards and two TDs. The 1-2 Oakland Raiders visit Indy on a two-game losing streak. The Raiders opened the season with a 24-16 home win over the Broncos(who are 0-3) but have followed with a 28-10 home loss to the Chiefs (Raiders led 10-0) and a 34-14 road loss at Minnesota.

Jon Gruden's "second go-round" as Oakland's head coach has not gone smoothly. The Raiders were 4-12 in 2018 and now 1-2 to open 2019. The offense is averaging only 16.0 PPG (29th) on 322.0 YPG (27th), while the defense allows 26.0 PPG (23rd) on 405.0 YPG (26th). Two players have made their marks early on for Oakland, TE Darren Waller and rookie RB (Ala) Josh Jacobs. Waller had career bests of 13 receptions and 134 yards last week and leads all players at his position and ranking second overall in the NFL with 26 receptions. Josh Jacobs tops all rookies with 228 rushing yards. However, Oakland's early season schedule is a 'killer' (more in just a bit).

Brissett is completing 71.7% of his passes with seven TDs and just one INT (QB rating of 112.0), while RB N\Marlon Mack (299 yards / 4.9 YPC) leads a running game that averages a healthy 149.7 YPG (6th). Indy's defense heads into Sunday's game against Oakland ranked in the bottom half of the league in yards rushing, yards passing and total yards allowed plus only six teams have fewer takeaways than the Colts' three. However, the Colts have not allowed a 100-yard rusher in any of the team's last 21 contests.

The Raiders will go straight from Indianapolis to London, where they will spend the week practicing before a "home" game against Chicago. Oakland is in the midst of a stretch that features 48 days between games at the Oakland Coliseum, with four road games, one off week, and the trip to London. This week marks the second of FIVE straight games that start at 10 a.m. PT and Oakland has lost SEVEN straight in the early Sunday time slot. Want more? Oakland is just 3-14 SU and 4-12-1 ATS on the road (a 75% "go-against") since the team made the playoffs in 2016 with a 12-4 record. Those 14 SU losses have come by an average margin of defeat of 15.9 PPG. Has Gruden helped things? He's 1-8 SU on the road (in going 1-7 last year, the Raiders scored a league-low 12.7 points per game on the road), as the Raiders have been outscored by 137 points in their last nine away games. Switching back to the Colts, they lost first two home games last season but have reeled off SEVEN straight wins, the second-longest active streak behind New England (15). Last Sunday's 27-24 win also marked the NINTH in a row at home in which the Colts have scored at least 23 points. That's tied for the league's third-longest streak with the LA Rams and behind New England (13) and Kansas City (12). There's little doubt among the players that the noise and atmosphere of Lucas Oil Stadium have helped. I agree. Colts wish the Raiders well in their travels to London, sending them away with another double-digit loss. Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on Nevada at 10:30 ET.

A pair of 3-1 schools square off Saturday night, when the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors visit Mackay Stadium to take on the Nevada Wolf Pack. Hawaii opened the season with a 45-38 home upset of Arizona (Hawaii was a 10 1/2-point dog), then added home wins over Oregon St and Central Arkansas, sandwiched around a 52-20 loss at Washington. QB Cole McDonald leads a passing game which ranks 6th in the nation (352.8 YPG) and while he has thrown 13 TDs, he's also been picked off NINE times. He gets little help from a running game that averages only 121.0 YPPG, which ranks 104th in the nation. Hawaii's D has allowed an average of more than 30 PPG in FIVE of the last six seasons and enters this contest allowing 33.5 PPG. That ranks 106th in the nation, as does the 439.5 YPG the defense allows, overall.

Nevada began 2019 with a home upset as well, beating Purdue 34-31 as an 11-point home dog. Nevada's lone loss so far came in its second game, 77-6 at Oregon, which was coming a late-loss in its season-opener against Auburn (a loss was understandable but the 71-point margin was admittedly, a bit much). The Wolf Pack come into this contest off back-to-back wins, including a 37-21 road win at UTEP. Nevada has a more balanced offense than Hawaii but is averaging a modest 24.0 PPG (100th). The defensive numbers are skewered due to the Oregon game but I will note that Nevada is allowing 50 YPG less than Hawaii (389.5 per game) on the season.

This marks the MWC opener for both teams and history does play a HUGE role in my taking Nevada, especially at this short price. The "June Jones era" is a thing of past. He took Hawaii to SIX bowls in his nine seasons (1999-2007), including a Sugar Bowl (BCS Bowl) at the end of the 2006 season, when Hawaii went 12-0 in the regular season (got crushed by Georgia, 41-10). Hawaii's had just TWO winning seasons in the 11 years since Jones left and the Rainbows Warriors have been regular underachievers on the road. Including this season's blowout loss at Washington, Hawaii enters this contest 18-49 SU on the road in the 11-plus seasons since Jones left. In contrast, Nevada has owned a solid home advantage here in Mackay Stadium, going 60-27 SU since 2005. Nevada has won EIGHT of the last 10 meetings with Hawaii, including all FIVE at home with an average margin of victory of 14.0 PPG. At this price, I have to LOVE Nevada!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on Arizona at 10:30 ET.

Anyone reading this will surely have heard that UCLA scored 50 points in the second half at then-No. 19 Washington State while rallying from a 49-17 deficit for earn its first victory of the season, 67-63. Sophomore QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson had a school-record 564 yards of total offense, including 507 yards passing (5 TDs) and 57 rushing yards (2 TDs). 1-3 UCLA is back on the road again this Saturday night, when it travels to Tucson to take on the 2-1 Arizona Wildcats.Arizona, which lost to UCLA 31-30 last season at the Rose Bowl minus starting QB Khalil Tate, has bounced back from a season-opening 45-38 loss at Hawaii with double-digit wins over both Northern Arizona (65-41) and Texas Tech (28-14).

UCLA came to Pullman last week 0-3 and was well on its way to an 0-4 start (Bruins opened 0-5 in 2018) before its incredible comeback. DTR (as UCLA's QB is known) had thrown for just 556 yards with four TDs and four INTs in the Bruins 0-3 start but picked apart a three-man Washington State pass rush in the second half when he threw for 322 yards, including a 15-yard touchdown pass with 1:07 to play for the game-winning TD. UCLA's win was incredible but the Bruins did allow Washington St to score 63 points on a WHOPPING 720 yards, with QB Gordon accounting for 570 passing yards and nine TD passes. The Bruins' 'survived' by forcing SIX turnovers with linebacker Josh Woods leading the way an interception and two fumble recoveries, including one with 59 seconds left to seal the win.

Arizona opened the season in 'paradise' (otherwise known as Hawaii) but despite gaining 539 yards and forcing SIX Hawaii turners, got upset 45-38 (Wildcats were favored by 10.5 points). However, Arizona 'hung' 65 points against Northern Arizona and then played an excellent all-around game in beating Texas Tech 28-14 as a two-point home dog. QB Tate is healthy and primed for a HUGE senior season. He's passed for 684 yards in three games (6 TDs) and run for 238 yards (7.4 YPC) with two TDs. Tate surpassed the 5,000-yard mark in career passing (5,048) and the 2,000-yard career rushing mark (2,110) in the win over Texas Tech, joining Oregon's Marcus Mariota as the only QBs in conference history to accomplish that feat. Tate had a school-record 84-yard touchdown run against the Red Raiders and also engineered a 99-yard, 13-play drive that chewed up over seven minutes for the game-clinching TD.

This sets up as a classic "let down" spot for the Bruins, plus Arizona has the advantage of not only coming in off a bye week but the Wildcats are playing with revenge from last year's one-point loss (again, Tate missed that contest). let's not forget that UCLA entered the 2019 season just 2-15 SU in road games the previous three seasons and began 20 19 with a 24-14 loss at Cincinnati. So, heading into last Saturday's game at Washington St, the Bruins were 2-17 SU in games away from the Rose Bowl (UCLA's home field), including a 35-17 Cactus Bowl loss to Kansas St in 2017. Down 49-17 in the third quarter, UCLA rallied to win. Hard to see UCLA not coming into this game 'flat.' Arizona's running game ranks 5th in the nation at 307.7 YPG (6,6 YPC), while UCLA's ranks 124th at 96.0 YPG (2.7 YPC). I want Tate over DTR plus UCLA's defense, which allows 530.2 YPG (125th) and 39.5 PPG (122nd) will NOT get six TOs in this one to save them. UCLA win streak ends at ONE in a  row. Wildcats roll.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on Old Dominion at 6:00 ET.

The 2-2 East Carolina Pirates and the 1-2 Old Dominion Monarchs meet Saturday in Norfolk, Va  for a non-conference game for both teams. East Carolina entered this season off three consecutive 3-9 years and the Pirates opened the season with a 34-6 loss at NC State, getting outgained 505-to-269 in yards. A 49-9 home win over Gardner Webb hardly proved much much and ECU then lost at Navy on Sep 14, 42-10 (got outgained 468-to-222 yards). ECU evened its record at 2-2 last Saturday with a 19-7 home win over William and Mary. ODU looks to even its record this Saturday, after opening the season with an unimpressive 24-21 win over Norfolk St but then dropping two in a row. However, the Monarchs have "shown well" in their two losses. ODU 'hung' with Va Tech at Blacksburg, losing 31-17 as a 30-point underdog. Last Saturday at UVa, ODU jumped out to a 17-0 lead over the Cavs (UVa came into the game ranked 21st in the AP poll), before losing just 28-17 (as a 27-point underdog).

East Carolina does come from the tougher conference (AAC vs C-USA) but the Pirates two wins this season have come at home against FCS teams, while their two road games against FBS teams have seen them get outscored 76-16 and outgained, 973-to-491. OK, Old Dominion is not in the class of NC State (or even Navy) but I noted above just how well the Monarchs played at Va Tech and UVa. This team deserves get a VERY beatable opponent here at home, after those two excellent efforts. ECU sure "fits the ball," as the Pirates are 1-17 SU since 2016 on the road, going 3-15 ATS (which is an 83% "go-against).

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Friday Night Lights play is on Arizona St at 10:30 ET.

California got off to its third consecutive 3-0 start in 2019 and entered the AP top-25 on Sep 15 at No. 23. Cal visited Oxford last Saturday and secured a 28-20 road victory over Ole Miss with a last-second stop at the goal line plus received a breakout performance by QB Chase Garbers, who threw for four TDs and finished 23-of-35 for 357 yards in the air. Cal's win saw them make the biggest 'leap' of any school in the new AP poll (Sep 22), jumping from No. 23 to No. 15. Cal welcomes Arizona State to Berkeley Friday night. The Sun Devils upset then-No. 18 Michigan St 10-7 at East Lansing on Sep 14, moving to 3-0 and No. 24 in the AP poll. However, ASU lost 34-31 at home last Saturday to Colorado and at 3-1, fell out of the rankings.

ASU has a freshman QB in Daniels and he's 'learning fast.' He opened by throwing for 588 yards (3 TDs and 0 INTs) in ASU's first two games but then had all sorts of problems at Mich St, throwing for just 140 yards. Yes, the Sun Devils lost to the Buffs last Saturday, but Daniels passed for 345 yards with two TDs. Cal's D has gotten a lot of pub since late 2018 (and with good reason) but despite allowing 34 points to Colorado, the ASU defense is allowing only 13.8 PPG (17th) on 346.0 YPG (49th). PK Brandon Ruiz has yet to play this season because of an undisclosed injury and is unlikely to return Friday. However, walk-on kicker Cristian Zendejas may not have his range, but he's made NINE of his 10 field-goal attempts.

Cal was hardly impressive in 27-13 and 23-17 wins over UC-Davis and North Texas at home, respectively, but owns two quality road wins. The Bears won 20-19 at then-No. 14 Washington and then at SEC foe Ole Miss  (see above). QB Chase Garbers came into Oxford last Saturday having completed just 20- of 40 passes for 240 yards in his previous two games but threw for 357 yards and four TDs vs the Rebels. Cal needed "all of that," as its much-heralded defense did hold Ole Miss to 20 points (the Bears have held 11 straight opponents to fewer than 24 points) but a check of the stat sheet shows a mediocre Ole Miss offense gained 525 yards!

ASU suffered a let down against Colorado off its win at MSU the week before but Herm Edwards knows his team really needs a bounce-back win here. Is Cal really as good as its press clippings? I'm not sold and will note that Cal was 1-5-1 ATS at home last season and is 0-2 ATS at home to start 2019. Meanwhile, ASU is 7-2-1 ATS its last 10 as a road dog. I'm calling for the outright upset.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Thursday Showdown is on the Phi Eagles at 8:20 ET.

The Green Bay Packers fired longtime head coach Mike McCarthy late last season and gave 39-year-old Matt LaFleur his first head coaching job. So far, so good. The Packers are one of SEVEN teams to open 2019 at 3-0 (note: 136 of the 180 teams or 75.5 percent to start 3-0 have made the playoffs since 1980). The Packers are seeking their first 4-0 start in four years when they host the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday night. The Eagles, who won the Super Bowl in the 2017 season, check in at just 1-2, with the two loses coming by a combined SEVEN points. Here's a stat the Eagles won't like. Only one team in the Super Bowl era, the 2001 New England Patriots, started the season 1-3 and rebounded to win it all.

The Eagles rallied from a 17-0 deficit in Week 1 against Washington to take a 32-20 lead. However, Washington scored with six seconds left to make it a 32-27 and a non-cover for Philly. The Eagles followed that Week 1 win with back-to-back games at Atlanta (24-20) and at home to Detroit (27-24).Head coach Doug Pederson canceled practice one day last week due to the number of injuries on the team but the receiving corps will get a boost with the return of Alshon Jeffery after he sat out Sunday's contest due to a calf strain. DeSean Jackson remains sidelined with an abdominal strain but Nelson Agholor has been a pretty good "fill in," with 18 catches and three TDs on the season. TE Zach Ertz has a team-high 17 receptions but has yet to find the end zone. Carson Wentz clearly needs more help from his running game, which is averaging 99.7 YPG (17th) on 3.6 YPC. The Philly pass D is a mess, surrendering 293.7 YPG (29th), with the pass rush recorded only two sacks in three games.

However, who could have imagined a Rodgers-led offense ranking 28th in total yards (286.7 YPPG), including 197.2 YPG passing (27th)? That's the case though, as the Packers check in scoring only 19.3 PPG (23rd). "We've never wanted to just manage the football game around here, so the standards are very high for us," Aaron Rodgers said. "We gotta play a lot better on offense. We've played some good defenses, no doubt about it, but the standard and the expectations are very high here and we haven't met them on offense. ... At some point, we can't expect our defense to shut everybody down. They have been. But at some point the offense is going to have to wake up and start making some plays." Defense has been the key to Green Bay's 3-0 start, holding opponents to 11.7 PPG (2nd-best in the NFL).

Wentz is completing 61.0% for 803 yards with six TDs and two INTs, which isn't bad. As noted already, he's NOT getting much help from his running game plus Wentz had EIGHT of his passes dropped against the Lions, including a deep ball to J.J. Arcega-Whiteside that could've been the go-ahead score in the final minute. A week earlier, Nelson Agholor dropped what could've been a go-ahead 60-yard TD with under two minutes left in a 24-20 loss at Atlanta. Philly could be 3-0, instead of 1-2. The Packers are not just 3-0 but also 3-0 ATS but I'm not convinced the Packers are a better team than the Eagles. Matt LaFleur may be 3-0 but Doug Pederson is a Super Bowl-winning coach and a 1-3 Philly start would put his team in "crisis-mode" before Oct 1. The Eagles are 0-3 ATS and Green Bay 3-0 ATS but that changes here. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My NCAAF 10* Thursday Game of the Month is on Navy at 8:00 ET.

My 10* Monday Night Madness is on the Was Redskins at 8:15 ET.

The Chicago Bears' defense (17.7 PPG allowed was an NFL-best) helped them win the NFC North last year at 12-4. Chicago's D has opened the current season allowing just 12.0 PPG but the team's offense has been absolutely pathetic, averaging 9.5 PPG to rank 31st of 32 teams! Chicago lost 10-3 at home to the Packers in Week 3 and then eked out a 16-14 win at Denver in Week 2. The Washington Redskins have opened 0-2, losing 32-27 at Philly and 31-21 at home to Dallas. Washington's defense has allowed 31.5 PPG (2nd-most in the league) on 455.0 YPG (3rd-highest total). It will be a QB 'battle' of Trubisky vs Keenum, not exactly a replay of Luckman vs Baugh in the 1940 NFL championship game (note: Bears famously won that won 73-0!).

Trubisky (58.3% for 348 yards without a TD pass and one INT for a 65.0 QB rating so far in 2019) was the "controversial" No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft but has led the Bears to just one TD in 22 offensive possessions this season. Chicago's lone TD came on a 1-yard-run by David Montgomery last week and the team is averaging only 99.5 YPG on the ground (18th). That is hardly good enough when Trubisky ranks near the bottom of the league at 4.8 yards a completion. The defense is still impressive but....Washington QB Case Keenum has limited offensive 'weapons' but he's played well against two quality teams, Philly and Dallas. Keenum is completing 69.1% for 601 yards with five TDs, zero INTs and a QB rating of 111.2. Of course, the defense is a concern but Chicago's "O" may be "just what the doctor ordered" for Washington's "stop-unit." Is it fair to call Washington's D a stop unit?

Chicago is VERY lucky to be 1-1, as PK Eddie Pineiro bailed them out by making a 53-yard FB at the gun last week in Denver. Mitchell Trubisky has so far "taken a step back" in his third season and laying points on the road (no less on Monday night), seems like 'a bridge too far!' Jay Gruden's team has gone 6-2 ATS since the start of last year when his team was playing with a healthy starting QB. Keenum's healthy AND he's played very well. The home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Run-Line Game of the Year is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET.

The New York Mets are still mathematically 'alive' in the NL wild card chase but the fact is that the Mets enter their final seven contests with a 4 1/2-game deficit in the race for the second wild card in the National League. The scorching Brewers (86-70)completed a three-game sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates with a 4-3 Sunday win and are now 15-2 in their last 17 games to move into a virtual tie with the Nationals (85-79) for the top wild card.Catching either of those teams seems like a REAL stretch for the Mets. However, Sunday's win by the Mets (81-74) assured them of just their THIRD non-losing season this decade. Also, New York hit three HRs on Sunday to push the franchise record to 231 (note: in comparison, the Marlins have hit only 134 HRs). Staying with Miami, the 54-101 (.348) Marlins have been playing out the string for most of a second straight rebuilding season. Miami finished with the NL's worst record in 2018 (63-98, .391) and will do so again in 2019.

Taking the mound for tonight's contest are two lefties, Miami's Caleb Smith (9-10, 4.24 ERA) and New York's Steven Matz (10-9, 4.16 ERA). Smith had lost four straight decisions before getting a victory at Arizona last Tuesday, although he allowed four ERs in five innings. Smith opened the season allowing two ERs in EIGHT of his first nine starts (allowed just three ERs in the other one), posting a 3-1 record with a 2.38 ERA (sad-sack Marlins were just 5-4). He's pretty much struggled the rest of the season pitching for the NL's worst team, as his ERA has risen almost two FULL runs to 4.24.

The Mets counter with Matz, who is coming off an 'ugly' outing at Coors Field, allowing seven ERs in just four innings of a 9-4 loss. However, he had allowed just nine ERs over his previous seven starts, posting a 1.77 ERA in 45.2 innings. Matz has struggled all season on the road (6.62 ERA / 1.58 WHIP / .2923 BAA) but here at Citi Field, the numbers are 1.94 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and .225 BAA. Matz has had little trouble with the Marlins in his career (2.83 ERA in 11 starts) and the Mets have won 11 of 15 vs Miami in 2019. Note that the Mets have won 10 of Matz's 13 home starts in 2019, and just TWO of those 10 home wins have come by one run. The other eight have had a margin of victory of 4.4 RPG. Matz faces a Marlins lineup which ranks 29th in scoring (3.77 per), 26th in team BA (.240) and 30th in OPS (.671). Laying the 1 1/2 runs seems 'cheap!'

Good luck...Larry

My 8* SNF Magic Play is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET.

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Chargers at 4:25 ET.

The Los Angeles Chargers needed OT to against the Colts in Week 1 to escape with a 30-24 win. LA is back at home on Sunday, looking to bounce back from a mistake-filled 13-10 loss at Detroit in Week 2. LA's miscues were personified by a third-quarter drive during which it had two TDs nullified and saw running back Austin Ekeler lose a fumble at the one-yard line. The Houston Texans visit The StubHub Center in Carson, Ca 1-1 as well, having lost at New Orleans 30-28 in Week 1 on a 58-yard FG as time expired but then surviving a failed two-point conversion try by the Jaguars in Houston at home in Week 2, eking out a 13-12 victory.

Houston QB Deshaun Watson was terrific in Week 1 at New Orleans, passing for 268 yards (3 TDs, 1 INT and 114.3 QB rating) plus rushing for 40 yards and a fourth TD. However, as the Texans have seen too often, he passed for just 159 yards against Jacksonville (0 TDs, 0 INTs and a 70.9 rating), while rushing for just FIVE yards. The Texans were thought to be in big trouble when RB Lamar Smith was lost in the preseason but Hyde (173 yards / 5.8 YPC) and Johnson (88 yards / 5.9 YPC) have surprised, with Houston averaging 153.0 YPG on the ground (5th), on 5.8 YPC. One would think the team's solid running game would be a HUGE plus for Watson but the Texans have yet to shore up their NFL-worst pass protection. Watson has been sacked 10 times in the season's first two weeks.

Philip Rivers (the 4th pick of the 2004 draft) will make his 209th consecutive start on Sunday, tying him with Eli Manning for the second-longest QB starting streak in NFL history. It's ironic that it comes in a week in which Manning, who was the No. 1 pick in the 2004 draft, was benched by the Giants for rookie Daniel Jones. Another alum from that 2004 draft, Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger (the No. 11 overall selection), will miss the rest of the season with an elbow injury suffered last week against Seattle. Meanwhile, Rivers just keeps chugging along. He's topped 4,000 passing in 10 of his last 11 seasons, throwing between 26 and 34 TD passes per year in that stretch plus has posted QB ratings of over 100 in FIVE of the 11. He's got a 377-to-180 TD-to-INT ratio for his career, after throwing 60 TDs with just 22 INTs the last two seasons. The Chargers were also expected to have running game issues with Melvin Gordon's holdout but Austin Ekeler has 287 yards from scrimmage (124 rushing, 163 receiving) and Justin Jackson is averaging an amazing 8.9 YPC while adding 116 yards rushing.

The small MLS venue in Carson (30,000 capacity) has never provided the Chargers with much of a home edge since the move from San Diego (6-10-1 ATS) but LA's top pass-rushers, Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram could be huge difference-makers in this one, as Watson has been sacked at least FOUR times in EIGHT straight games. The Chargers had 424 yards at Detroit last Sunday but scored just 10 points, as two TDs were nullified by penalties (9 penalties in all for 70 yards). Throw in two TOs (one at the Lions' one-yard line) plus two missed FGs and you can see why. DO NOT expect a repeat performance.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* NFL Week 3 Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Giants at 4:05 ET.

The 0-2 NY Giants head to Tampa to take on the 1-1 Bucs this Sunday but Eli Manning will NOT be the Giants staring QB come kickoff. Manning, a two-time Super Bowl MVP, has been New York's starting QB since the 10th game of 2004, Manning's rookie season.He has started all but ONE game for the Giants since the start of the 2005 season but is 8-25 over the past three years.Sure, there's plenty of blame to go around but it's understandable that the Giants are making a change at the NFL's most important position. Daniel Jones was drafted in the first round with the sixth overall pick of the 2019 NFL Draft. He'll square off against Jameis Winston, who was drafted as the first overall pick by the Buccaneers in the 2015 NFL Draft.

The Giants are averaging 420.0 YPG (6th) but have not turned those yards into points, averaging only 15.5 PPG (27th). The first order of business for the 6-5 rookie from Duke will be to do just that.Jones completed 29-of-34 passes for 416 yards and two touchdowns during some impressive preseason play. He has one of the NFL's most versatile RBs in the NFL to help out, as Saquon Barkley ranks second in the NFL with 227 rushing yards and owns an eye-popping 7.8 yards per attempt. TE Evan Engram was Eli's top target (17 catches / 1 TD) but it's great news that WR Sterling Shepard (190 catches his first three seasons with 14 TDs) has cleared the concussion protocol over the course of this week and avoided an injury designation on Friday.

Bruce Arians is a highly-respected head coach and it will be interesting to see if he can "fix" Jameis Winston. Winston was awful in a Week 1 home loss to the 49ers (194 passing yards with 1 TD and 3 INTs and a QB rating of 45.4). Two of his INTs were returned for TDs! That said, in Week 2 at Carolina (a 20-13 Bucs win), he played a mistake-free game with 208 yards, one TD and zero INTs, for a QB rating of 103.4). However, Winston's consistency is his inconsistency. He can be a turnover 'machine.' He's not getting much help from Tampa's running game so far in 2019, which is averaging 111.5 YPG on 3.9 YPC.

Here's the bottom line. Winston's inconsistency has made the Bucs a very poor home favorite during Winston's tenure, checking in at 6-12 ATS since 2015. The Giants have won FOUR of the last five meetings in the regular season against Tampa Bay, including a 38-35 triumph at home last year in which Barkley ran for 142 yards and scored three times. Yes, the Giants went 8-24 SU in 2017 and 2018 but note that after losing and failing to cover at Dallas in Week 1 of 2018, the Giants finished the season with SEVEN straight covers as a road dog, before opening 2019 at Dallas in Week 1 of 2019 with a 35-17 loss (as a 7-point dog). Digging a little deeper, let me point out that since the start of the 2017 season, the Giants are 11-5 ATS as a road underdog, with THREE of those ATS losses coming at Dallas. Eliminate the hated-Cowboys and the Giants are 11-2 ATS as road dogs against the rest of the league. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Week is on the Ind Colts at 1:00 ET.

Falcons head coach Dan Quinn denies he's on the "hot seat" in Atlanta but I'm pretty sure he's mighty glad that Matt Ryan drove the Falcons 75yards in just over a minute to what turned out to be the game-winning TD with 2:10 left in last Sunday night's game vs the Eagles. The Falcons avoided an 0-2 start but now travel to Indianapolis to take on the Colts and if history is any guide, winning will not come easy.The Falcons have won just TWICE (in 16 meetings) in a series that began back in Atlanta's expansion year of 1966. That may not be all that relevant but I'll add some current trends later, that are. The Colts have opened the 2019 season with back-to-back road games, losing 30-24 (in OT) at LA vs the Chargers in Week 1, before winning 19-17 at Tennessee in Week 2 as a three-point underdog. Indy returns to Lucas Oil Stadium for the first time since Aug 24, when fans booed as Andrew Luck left the field before announcing his retirement (real classy move!).

Atlanta's once-feared offense is averaging a modest 18.0 PPG (23rd) and QB Ryan, who had just SEVEN interceptions all of 2018 (608 attempts), already has FIVE after two games (89 attempts),including TWO in the red zone. Atlanta's rushing game is adding just 65.0 YPG (28th), as Devonta Freeman has run for only 41 yards (2.2 YPC) in two games, with no run longer than nine. Atlanta's rush D was gashed on the road by the Vikings in Week 1 (172 yards), in game Atlanta trailed 28-0 into the fourth quarter (final was 28-12). The Falcons are allowing 24.0 PPG (23rd) after two games.

The sudden and unexpected retirement of Luck has clearly NOT negatively affected the Colts, who could easily be 2-0 to start 2019. OK, Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew luck, throwing for just 336 yards after two games. However, he's completing 69.1% and has five TD passes and just one INT. The big news in Indy is the strength of the team's OL and its running game. Marlon Mack ranks No. 3 among all RBs with 225 rushing yards (5.0 YPC) and the Colts are tied with the Vikings as the NFL's second-best rushing team (185.0 YPG on 5.5 YPC). Indy's D is so-so but Atlanta lacks a running game and Ryan has always been a much better QB at home, than on the road.

Indy, like the Vikings, should be able to control the tempo of the game by running and as noted, Brissett has been a playmaker. I could point to the fact that the Falcons are on a 1-8 ATS run as a road underdog but since the Colts are barely favored, I'll rely more on the fact the the Falcons are a 'money-burning' 4-13 ATS (that's a 76% "go-against") on the road since the start of the 2017 season. I was "all over" the Vikings against the Falcons in Week 1 and then had Atlanta in its SNF win in Week 2. I make it THREE in a row with Atlanta games this season by taking the Colts in Week 3.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on West Va at 4:30 ET.

Both West Va and Kansas began the 2019 season with new head coaches. Neal Brown took over at West Va, after leading Troy to three straight bowl wins from 2016-18 and a 31-8 overall record. As for Kansas, the Jayhawks, mired in a decade-long slump since Mark Mangino was allowed to 'quietly' resign after the 2009 season, hired Les Miles. Miles began his career at Oklahoma St but he made his name at LSU, taking the Tigers to 11 straight bowl games from 2005-2015, winning the BCS championship in 2007 and losing it in 2011. His record was 112-032 in that span but after a 2-2 start in 2016, was fired. Kansas signed him to a five-year contract last November.

West Va opened the season with an uninspiring 20-13 home win over James Madison and then got blown out 38-7 at Missouri. However, behind Austin Kendall's 272 yards and three TD passes, the Mounrtaineers beat NC State 44-27 as a 7-point home dog. Brown has just three starters back from an offense that avergaed 40.3 PPG. QB Kendall is a graduate transfer from Oklahoma and three freshmen receivers helped infuse some much-needed life into the offense last Saturday, as Sam James caught nine passes for 155 yards (1 TD), Winston Wright had four catches and Ali Jennings had three catches, including a fourth-quarter TD. Brown used three first-time starters on the offensive line against North Carolina State. West Va entered the contest averaging an FBS-worst 1.1 YPC but ran for 173 yards (6.2 YPC)!

"The Hat's" career at Kansas got started with a fortunate 24-17 home win over Indiana St (Jayhawks scored the go-ahead TD with just over two minutes left in the game). That unimpressive victory was followed by a shocking 12-7 home loss to Coastal Carolina. So what happened a week ago last Friday? Kansas won 48-24 at BC, as an 18 1/2-point underdog. Senior QB Carter Stanley (107 yards passing , two interceptions vs Coastal Carolina) rebounded from an interception on his first pass attempt against the Eagles by completing 12 straight and finishing 20-of-27 for 238 yards and three TD. Kansas ran for 329 yards on 7.3 YPC. What's going on here? The win ended a 48-game road losing streak against Powe-5 schools for the Jayhawks.

Can the Jayhawks actually move to 3-1 with a win here? Kansas entered 2019 with a 6-82 record in Big 12 play the last 10 years and last won its league-opener back in 2009, Mangino's last season with the team. Kansas has lost NINE straight conference openers since, and SEVEN of eight to West Va since it joined the Big 12. That includes FIVE straight losses to West Va by the scores of 51-13, 49-0, 48-21, 56-34 and 38-22. I was never much of a fan of "the Hat" and I'll side with Brown, whose Troy teams the last three seasons averaged between 30.7 and 33.7 PPG on offense, while allowing just 18.5-to-22.1 PPG on defense. This guy can coach and look for him to prove it at Morgantown before he's through. Kansas opened 2-1 in 2018 as well but finished 3-9. That BC game was a 'mirage!'

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on North Carolina at 3:30 ET.

Mack Brown had a great six-year run at North Carolina from 1992-1997. He led the Tar Heels to six straight bowls and had three, 10-win seasons. That was a springboard to take the job at Texas. He won nine games in each of his first three years but then won double digits in NINE consecutive season (2001-09). His 2004 team won the BCS national championship by ending USC's 34-game winning streak, 41-38. The 2009 team lost the BCS national championship game 37-21 to Alabama. Brown would coach the Longhorns for four more seasons but the 'Horns went just 30-21 and Brown resigned after the 2013 season. Brown was named head coach at North Carolina in November of 2018 after a 5-year absence from coaching and 21 years after he left UNC for Texas. The Tar Heels upset South Carolina in Charlotte 24-20 as a 12 1/2-point dog on Aug 31 and then, after watching a 17-3 first-quarter lead evaporate (UNC trailed 25-20 with about 4 1/2 minutes left), pulled it together and scored a TD and added a two-point conversion with 1:01 remaining for a 28-25 victory. However, the Tar Heels lost their first true road game of 2019 at Wake Forest, 24-18. North Carolina used fourth-quarter comebacks to win its first two games of the season and came back from 21-3 down in the final quarter against Wake but time ran out on them.

2-0 Appalachian State comes to Chapel Hill this Saturday, after enjoying an early-season bye week. The Mountaineers scored a combined 98 points in home victories over East Tennessee State and Charlotte to open the season and are certainly one of the top contenders in the Sun Belt (note: App St received 12 votes in the national coaches poll this week). RB Darrynton Evanshas rushed for 333 yards in two games (10.1 YPC / 4 TDs), while QB Zac Thomas has completed 68.2% for 332 yards with five TDs and zero INTs. He finished with 21 TDPs and 10 rushing TDs last season, going 10-1 as the team's starter. He's now 12-1 as a starter and has led the Mountaineers to EIGHT straight wins. Appalachian State is averaging 49.0 PPG (12th) and 276.5 YPG rushing (14th) but of course, the team's first two opponents leave much to be desired.

North Carolina freshman Sam Howell has passed for 701 yards with six TDs and zero INTs plus has two RBs making contributions, Javonte Williams (205 yards on 5.5 YPC) and Michael Carter (203 yards on 5.1 YPC).These schools are just 163 miles apart but will meet for the first time since 1940. Appalachian State's transition to FBS staus has gone smoothly, as the Mountaineers are 41-11 the last four seasons, going to and WINNING four bowl games. However, all that success came under head coach Scott Satterfield, who is now at Louisville. Elijah Drinkwitz is in his first year as a head coach in 2019 and home wins over ETSU and Charlotte haven't proved much of anything. This will be the Mountaineers' first road game and North Carolina will surely look to keep an in-state school like Appalachian State "in its place!"

Howell is the first-ever first true freshman to start a season at QB for North Carolina and he opened his career with two straight 4th-quarter comeback wins, before falling just short in his third game. Mack Brown has reinvigorated the UNC program with confidence and with the school's ACC opener looming next Saturday (against No. 1 Clemson), Brown surely won't want to go into that contest off two straight losses. No one will ever forget Appalachian State's infamous 34-32 upset at Michigan (as a 4-TD underdog) back in 2007 but let me point out that the Mountaineers are 1-15 SU against Power-5 schools this century. No real number to 'sneak under' in this one. Take the Tar Heels.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Sep Game of the Month is on Ohio U at 2:00 ET.

The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns won NINE games each season in a four-year stretch from 2011 through 2014, playing in four consecutive New Orleans Bowls (ULL won AND covered each one!). However, ULL opened this season on a three-year run of just 18-21, including two bowl losses. The Ragin' Cajuns opened the 2019 season  with a 38-28 loss to Miss St (game was played in New Orleans, not Lafayette), before winning home games over Liberty (35-14) and Texas Southern (77-6). ULL was a 19-point underdog against Miss St, so the team heads into its first true road game of the season a perfect 3-0 ATS.

Ohio U opened the season with a 41-20 win over Rhode Island but has lost two straight since, both on the road. The Bobcats lost 20-10 at Pitt on Aug 7 and then last Saturday, fell just short in a 33-31 loss at Marshall. That Pitt loss hardly looks so bad now (ask No. 13 Penn St about the Panthers) and remember, Marshall lost by just SEVEN points at Boise St the week before. Ohio QB Nathan Rourke was spectacular at Marshall, passing for 215 yards with three TDs and zero INTs, while adding 118 rushing (on just nine carries) and a fourth TD.

As noted earlier, this is ULL's first true road game of 2019 and winning in Athens has not been easy for visiting teams, as of late. The Bobcats last lost a home game back on 10/7/17 (26-23 in OT to Central Michigan) and enter this contest on a 10-game winning streak at Peden Stadium. Want more? How about these two factoids. Ohio has averaged a WHOPPING 47.0 PPG during its home winning streak plus going back to the start of the 2017 season, checks in 8-2 ATS at home over FBS foes. Frank Solich has done a GREAT job at Ohio (NINE bowl appearances over the last 10 seasons) and many think this year's team could win its first MAC championship since 1968. The Bobcats really need a win here, as they get next weekend off, before playing their next EIGHT games against MAC foes, including FOUR weekday games in November. ULL is in the WRONG place at the WRONG time in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Eye-Opener is on Ole Miss at 12:00 ET.

California is off to its third consecutive 3-0 start and entered the AP top-25 last Sunday at No. 23. Cal has relied on an excellent defense to earn a season-opening win over UC-Davis, a 20-19 upset at then-No. 14 Washington and then another home win over North Texas last Saturday. 27-13 and 23-17 home wins over UC-Davis and North Texas are hardly impressive efforts but what is impressive is that Cal enters this contest in Oxford having allowed 23 points or less in 10 straight games.

The Ole Miss Rebels were just 5-7 last year and have won SIX or less games in each of the last three years, making the school's last bowl appearance back in 2015. That Sugar-Bowl winning team finished 10th in the final AP poll with a 10-3 record. How quickly things have fallen apart in Oxford. Matt Luke became the interim head coach at Ole Miss after Hugh Freeze was forced to resign back in June of 2017. After a late season push allowed Ole Miss to finish 6–6, the interim tag on November 26, 2017 and he became 37th head football coach in school history. However, last year's 5-7 record (1-7 in the SEC) has put some pressure on Luke. Luke sure didn't "stand pat," as he hired two successful former head coaches as his offensive and defensive coordinators. Rich Rodriguez (OC) and Mike MacIntyre (DC) are his new coordinators. The Rebels D played well in the team's season opener but the offense was a 'dud' (173 total yards and 13 FDs) in a 15-10 loss at Memphis. However, Rich-Rod's new offense has averaged 35.5 points in back-to-back home wins over Arkansas and Southeastern Louisiana plus that ever-improving Ole Miss defense held both Arkansas and SE Louisiana to fewer than 70 yards rushing.

Cal's D ranks 34th in scoring (16.3 PPG) and 43rd in total D (313.7 YPG) but while sophomore QB Chase Garbers may be 9-4 as a starter, he's completing only 52.9% of his passes for a modest 478 yards (Cal ranks 118th with 159.3 YPG through the air). RB Brown leads the way with 324 yards (5.0 YPC) for a solid rushing attack that averages 191.3 YPG (48th). However, I expect Cal's offense to have some problems here in Oxford, as the Bears come in averaging only 23.3 PPG (95th) on 350.7 YPG (100th).

I noted earlier that Luke brought in Rich-Rod and Mike MacIntyre and these two former he coaches know Cal well having recently been head coaches at ASU and Colorado, respectively. In fact, the duo has won FIVE of its last six meetings vs Cal. Ole Miss QB Corral started four games last season but seems to be 'finding his footing' after a poor effort at Memphis ( 9 of 19 for 93 yards without a TD and one INT). He's completed 37 of 54 at home the last two games, throwing for 485 yards with four TDs and zero INTs. Cal's running game has also perked up, rushing for 237 and 220 yards the last two Saturdays. RB Phillips has put together back-to-back 100 yards games (243 yards with three TDs), after gaining only 62 yards at Memphis.

Is Cal really deserving of a top-25 ranking? We'll find out here but my 'bet' says the answer is N-O! This will be a 9 a.m. Pacific time kickoff for Cal and the heat and humidity of Oxford will surely not help the Bears as the game wears on. Ole Miss hasn’t lost a non-conference home game since September of 2012, when Texas won 66-31. The Rebels are a PERFECT 17-0 SU vs non-conference opponents in Oxford since that defeat. I say the Rebels make it 18 in a row, here!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Friday Night Lights Play is on Air Force at 9:00 ET.

It would be more than fair to call Boise St the “Gonzaga of College Football." After all, the Broncos began to ascend to prominence on the gridiron in the late 1990s, about the same time the Bulldogs began 'making noise' on the hardwood. Twenty years later, the Broncos and Bulldogs keep winning. The Broncos went 10-3 in 2018 (bowl game vs Boston College was cancelled due to inclement weather) but the Broncos reached double digits in wins for the 16th time in the last 20 years. The Broncois opened the 2019 season unranked but their 3-0 start has them in the AP top-25 at No. 20. Boise St opened 2019 with a huge comeback win at FSU (trailed 31-13 in the second quarter but won, 36-31), before winning home games over Marshall (14-7) and FCS Portland St (45-10). Visiting Boise Friday night will be Air Force, fresh off its 30-23 (OT) win at Colorado last Saturday.

Air Force is 2-0 and ranks second in the nation in rushing with 356.0 YPG. QB Donald Hammond has thrown just 12 passes but he should not be overlooked. The Air Force defense held Colgate to seven points on just 161 yards in its season opener but really impressed by allowing Colorado a modest 23 points on 325 yards last Saturday in Boulder. That's after the Buffs had scored 52 points on 475 yards vs Colorado St (in Denver) and 34 points on 464 yards in a home OT win over Nebraska.

True freshman QB Hank Bachmeier had a HUGE game vs FSU (407 yards) but has averaged a more modest 260 YPG with three TDs and two INTs in his last two games. It's not good news that Boise lost its top-2 WRs from last year and that early NFL draftee RB Alex Mattison (1,415 YR, 17 TDs) left a 'hole' in the backfield. No returning RB gained as much as 200 yards in 2018. Head coach Harsin has used a "RB by committee" to open 2019. Mahone had 142 yards in the opener but just 73 yards in the last two games. Holmani had 103 yards vs Marshall but just 113 in Games 1 and 3.  Boise’s string of 10 straight years with a 1,000-yard rusher might come to end.

Boise's famed "blue carpet" has not produced the kind of results Boise St bettors have liked, as the Broncos are just 17-36-1 their last 53 games as a home favorite. As for Calhoun's Falcons, they are 11-3-1 as road dogs since 2015 (that's a 79% winning mark). Take the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AFC South Game of the Month is on the Ten Titans at 1:00 ET.

The Jacksonville Jaguars welcome the Tennessee Titans to TIAA Bank Field for an AFC South showdown on Thursday night with the NFL Network carrying the game. It's hard to believe that it was only January of 2018 when the Jags led the Pats by 10 points with less than 10 minutes to go in the 4th quarter of the AFC championship game. We all know the Pats scored a pair of TDs in that 4th quarter to win 24-20 and in effect, the Jags have imploded since. Jacksonville did open the 2018 season 3-1 (including a home rout of the Pats) but the Jags would lose 10 of their final 10 games to end the season at 5-11. QB Blake Bortles was "shown the door" and the Jags signed Nick Foles to a big contract. He was hardly used during the preseason (Jags went 0-4) and then in the first quarter of Week 1, Noles suffered a broken clavicle.

The Titans are coming off three straight nine-win seasons. They shocked the Browns (SI's cover team) 43-13 at Cleveland in Week 1 but missed a great opportunity to open 2-0 by losing 19-17 at home to the Colts when their offense generated only 242 yards. Tennessee doesn’t have superstars but the Titans don’t have any glaring weaknesses. Only TWO teams surrendered fewer points per game than the Titans last season (18.9) and they ranked eighth in yards allowed. Offensively, a lot of the Titans success will come down to Mariota simply staying healthy. Tennessee made several moves in an effort to upgrade the protection around him, giving a $44 million contract to free agent left guard Rodger Saffold and drafting guard Nate Davis in the third round.The Titans have upgraded Mariota’s receiving corps, adding slot-option Adam Humphries, rookie wideout A.J. Brown and getting tight end Delanie Walker back from an ankle injury that sidelined him most of last season. RB Derrick Henry showed how dominant he can be by rushing for 585 yards and scoring seven TDs during the final four games.

Rookie QB Gardner Minshew took over for Foles vs KC and while he completed his first 13 passes and finished 22 of 25 for 275 yards with two TDs, both came after Jacksonville was down 37-13 in the 4th quarter. He performed admirably against the Texans in his first career start with 213 passing yards and a TD, as well as 56 yards rushing, but again, he could get the Jags into the end zone until driving them 68 yards in 14 plays during the game's final four minutes. I admire the Jags "going two and the win," but it failed. Tennessee's pass D ranks second in the NFL (182.5 YPG) and the team's 16.0 PPG allowed ranks 6th. Minshew and the struggling Jacksonville offense will have its work cut out.

Mariota has passed for a modest 402 yards but he has four TDPs and zero INTs in 52 attempts (112.8 QB rating). Rookie WR Brown is averaging 20.8 YPC on his six catches plus now-healthy TE Walker has nine catches and two TDs. RB Henry has 165 yards (4.9 YPC) and two TDs. The Titans have won each of the last four meetings with the Jags, holding them to just 10.3 PPG. With a visit to Atlanta coming up in Week 4, the Titans NEED this one. Expect them to get it.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* American Conference Crusher is on Houston at 8:00 ET.

The Houston Cougars and Tulane Green Wave meet Thursday in an American Athletic Conference game at Yulman Stadium in New Orleans. Houston has opened 1-2, losing at No. 4 Oklahoma on Sep 1 and at NRG Stadium last Friday to No. 20 Washington St. In between, the Cougars won 37-17 at home against Prairie View A&M. Thursday's game will be the FOURTH different stadium the team has played in over its first four games. Tulane is playing at home for the THIRD time in four weeks, opening with a 42-14 home win over FIU, losing at No. 10 Auburn 24-6 and then crushing Missouri St 58-6 at home last Saturday.

Houston's pass D was overwhelmed by Oklahoma's Hurts and Washington St's Gordon but Tulane QB Justin McMillan is completing a modest 55.2% for 424 yards (2 TDs / 2 INTs), while adding 154 yards rushing (3 TDs). FYI...Hurts and Gordon have completed almost 80% of their passes (21-2 TD-to-INT ratio) with Hurts rushing for 373 yards (9.8 YPC / 4 TDs). Houston QB King is not off to a great start but remember, he passed for 2,982 yards in 2018 (36-6 ratio) and added 674 yards rushing with 14 TDs. He's had a least one TD pass and one rush TD in each game this season, tying Tem Tebow's NCAA record of 14 straight games with at least one TD pass and one rush TD.

Let me note that Houston is 23-10 SU in AAC games since 2015, while Tulane has gone 10-22 in league games over the exact same time span.Houston has 'hung around' against two ranked teams, plus was plagued with costly penalties and noticeably wore down due to lack of depth in its 31-24 loss to Washington State last Friday. However, while getting better, Tulane is still a middle-of-pack AAC team. Meanwhile, Houston is a HIGHLY-PROFITABLE 13-1-1 ATS as an underdog since 2015. That's a 93% winning situation. Take the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Run-Line Rout is on the Chi Cubs at 8:05 ET.

The Chicago Cubs won 8-2 over the Reds on Monday but got shut down by Sonny Gray last night (6.2 IP / 4 hits / 2 runs), as the Red beat them 4-2. Chicago had its five-game winning streak snapped and coupled with Milwaukee's win over the Padres, find themselves tied with the Brewers for the final NL wild-card spot. Both teams are 1 1/2 games back of Washington (current No. 1 wild card team) and TWO back of first-place St Louis in the NL Central. Cincinnati caps its nine-game road trip tonight, looking to go 5-4. However, the 71-81 Reds were officially eliminated from playoff contention with Monday's 8-2 loss to the Cubs and another defeat would assure the club of its SIXTH consecutive losing season.

Tonight's pitching matchup features Tyler Mahle (2-11, 5.11 ERA) and Jon Lester (13-10, 4.59 ERA). Mahle is hoping to solidify a spot in the 2020 starting rotation. He was placed on the injured list in mid-July with a 2-10 (4.93 ERA) record, as the Reds went 4-15 in his first 19 starts of the season (minus-$1,038 against the moneyline). He's 0-1 with a 6.43 ERA in three starts since returning from Triple-A Louisville (team is 1-2) but while he allowed four runs and eight hits (two HRs) in just 3.1 innings at Seattle last Thursday, the Reds would win that game, 11-5. Why is that significant? It marked the FIRST time the Reds have won one of Mahle's road starts in 2019. He's 0-8 with a 5.45 road ERA in 13 starts (team is 1-12).

Lester has not had a disappointing season for Chicago in 2019 and earned one of the wilder victories in his career last Friday. He allowed four first-inning runs to the Pittsburgh Pirates but watched his teammates rally for five runs in the bottom half, of the inning. He left after five innings, having allowed 11 hits and seven runs (four earned) but with a 17-7 lead! Lester has had a rough go in 2019 but things have worked out well for the Cubs in his Wrigley starts

The Cubs can't afford to let tonight's game slip away, facing Mahle, who has seen the Reds lose 12 of his 13 road starts. For all of Lester's woes in 2019, the Cubs are 11-4 in his 15 home starts and just ONE of those 11 team wins at home have come by one run. In the other 10, the average margin of victory has been 5.3 RPG. Lay the 1 1/2 runs!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Run-Line Rout is on the Chi Cubs at 8:05 ET.

The Chicago Cubs welcomed the Pirates to Wrigley Field over the weekend and were able to sweep the three-game series. Meanwhile, the Cards hosted the Brewers for a three-games series. St Louis won Friday's game 10-0 but Milwaukee was able to win Saturday and Sunday. When "all the dust had settled," St Louis sat atop the NL Central, two games up on the Cubs, with the Brewers sitting one game behind Chicago.The Cubs continue their final homstand of the season this week, as they welcome the Reds to Wrigley for a three-game series, before the Cards come in for a four-game series to end the week. Chicago will spend MLB's final week of the regular season with three games in Pittsburgh, followed by three games in St Louis. The Reds cap a nine-game road trip with this series in Chicago, having gone 3-3 so far. Cincy is just 70-89 in 2019 (30-45 on the road) and the Reds' only role these last two weeks is that of a "spoiler."

Taking the mound tonight will be Kevin Gausman (3-8, 5.83 ERA) and Cole Hamels (7-7, 3.89 ERA). Sonny Gray was scheduled to start for the Reds but they will instead give Gausman his first start for Cincinnati since being claimed off waivers from Atlanta. Gausman began the 2018 season with Baltimore and was 5-8 with a 4.43 ERA in 21 starts. However, the Orioles were an awful 6-15 in those starts, giving him a minus-$967 moneyline mark. Atlanta made a deal for Gausman at the trade deadline and it worked out well, as Gausman went 5-3 with a 2.87 ERA in 10 starts (Braves were 7-3). However, Gausman flopped pitching for an excellent Atlanta team in 2019, going 3-7 with a 6.19 ERA (Atlanta "saved him" by going 8-8 in his 16 starts). The Braves eventually gave up on him and Cincy claimed him off waivers. Gausman has made 11 relief appearances for the Reds while posting a 4.02 ERA in 15.2 innings but he does own a 22-3 KW ratio.

As for Hamels, he makes his 26th start of the season. He has a 7.58 ERA in his last seven outings, which is quite a drop-off from him posting a 2.84 ERA in his first 18 starts. The 35-year-old has completed as much as six innings in just TWO of his last nine starts, while earning a victory just ONCE in his last 11 outings. Taking that all in, I will still back Hamels and the Cubs here, even laying 1 1/2 runs. Yes, the Cubs are a poor road team (31-44) but only MLB's three-best teams (Astros, Dodgers and Yankees) own a better home mark than Chicago's 50-24 mark at Wrigley Field (outscoring opponents on average, 5.34-to-3.89 RPG). Chicago has dominated right-handers at home this season (41-17), including 20-5 in night games. Getting back to Hamels, he checks in 12-2 with a 2.02 ERA in 20 career starts vs Cincy, with his teams going 18-2. BTW...In two career starts vs the Cubs, Gausman owns a 12.38 ERA. Cubs win "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 8* SNF Magic Play is on the Atl Falcons at 8:20 ET.

The Philadelphia Eagles fell behind the Redskins 17-0 in Week 1 at home in the early 2nd quarter and trailed 20-7 at the half. However, Philly scored the game's next 25 points, before Washington was able to add a "concession TD" with six seconds left for the 'cover!' Philly visits Atlanta for Week 2's Sunday Night Football contest, as the Falcons look to avert an 0-2 start for the first time since 2007. Atlanta was steamrolled at Minnesota last Sunday, falling behind 28-0. Matt Ryan was intercepted twice and sacked four times to put the Falcons in a sizable hole. He did throw two, 4th-quarter TD passes in the 28-12 loss.

Philly QB Carson Wentz looked to be in mid-season form, throwing for 313 yards and three TDs. DeSean Jackson caught two of those TDs, among his eight catches for 154 yards. Philly may have the deepest set of RBs in the league, with off-season acquisition Jordan Howard (over 3,300 rushing yards the L3 years with the Bears) joining veteran Darren Sproles and Penn St rookie Miles Sander. However, the Eagles finished 30th against the pass last season and showed no signs of improvement in Week 1, as Washington's Case Keenum threw for 380 yards against a suspect secondary that didn't get much help from the pass rush.

Atlanta had problems with both its offensive and defensive lines at Minnesota. The Falcons OL allowed 42 sacks and 108 QB hits in 2018 (gave up four sacks vs Minnesota) plus the DL gave up 172 rushing yards and three TDs vs the Vikes. Ryan has thrown at least one touchdown pass in 16 consecutive contests and with WRs Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley he has talented targets. Then there is TE Austin Hooper, who reeled in a team-leading nine catches in Week 1.

The Falcons have lost to the Eagles each of the last three seasons, averaging just 12.3 points in those games. However, all three of  the games were in Philadelphia and the last two times the Falcons were near the goal line with multiple chances to win. The Eagles have given up an average of  eight more points and 66 more yards per game on the road that at home during the past three years, while Matt Ryan had an 118.0 QB rating at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, compared to 99.7 on the road last season. Dan Quinn has brushed off any suggestion that he's starting to feel some heat but he has now lost 11 of his last 18 games going back to the playoffs at the end of the 2017 season. I doubt Quinn and Atlanta will ever 'live down' squandering a 28-3 lead to New England in the Super Bowl but Atlanta NEEDS this one and it's only a Week 2 game. I'm taking the home team.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the LA Rams at 4:25 ET.

It may be nearly nine months ago since the Saints were done in by one of the more controversial no-calls in NFL playoff history but it seems like "just yesterday" to New Orleans and its fans. The blatant pass interference on CB Nickell Robey-Coleman late in regulation was missed by referees and it is still being discussed. The non-call forced New Orleans to settle for a field goal and eventually, the Rams beat the Saints 26-23 in overtime in last year's NFC Championship Game. It sent the Rams, not the Saints, to the Super Bowl. The non-call also prompted the NFL to change its replay review rules in the off-season, although many Saints fans still haven't stopped complaining about it. The two teams square off in Week 2, with both coming off close Week 1 wins. Drew Brees passed for 370 yards and two TDs but needed to lead a last-gasp drive that led to the Saints' game-winning, 58-yard FG with 0:00 time left (30-28). The Rams jumped out to a 13-0 lead at Carolina last Sunday but needed to hang on for a 30-27 victory.

RB Alvin Kamara will be the Saints featured back in 2019 (with Ingram gone) and he ran for 97 yards and had 72 receiving yards in Week 1, giving every indication he's up to the task. Meanwhile, Michael Thomas was Brees' top target with 10 catches for 123 yards. Jared Goff wasn’t all that sharp in LA's 30-27 win at Carolina (23-39 186 yards with one TD and one iNT), after just signing a huge contract. However, some good news was Woods hauling in eight passes and Kupp catching seven balls. As for RB Todd Gurley, concerns about his apparently balky knee looked fairly unfounded in the Rams' opener, as he rushed for 97 yards (6.9 YPC) and looked dangerous. Teammate Brooks ran for 53 yards and scored two TDs.

I get the feeling "most" will be on the Saints in this one and the week-long line move seems to bear that out. However, the Rams averaged 37.3 PPG at home last season and one should NOT ignore the Saints' "close call" in Week 1, as it has become a pattern. Going back to the start of the 2014 season, the Saints enter this contest 2-9 SU and 1-10 ATS (that's 91% "go-against") in the first two games of the season these past five-plus years. Bet on it!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "signature" 36-Club Play is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET.

Both the Seattle Seahawks and Pittsburgh Steelers did not play well in Week 1 but at the least the Seahawks picked up a win.Seattle escaped with a 21-20 home win over teh Bengals, despite getting nearly doubled up in yardage (429-233) and allowing the Bengals to control the ball for nearly 36 minutes. Russell Wilson was 14-of-20 for 196 yards and two scores in the opener (no INTs) but Seattle was able to run for just 72 yards (2.9 YPG), after leading the NFL in rushing in 2018 at 160.0 YPG. The offense gained only 232 yards with 12 FDs. Seattle's defense allowed 429 yards (22 FDs), as Andy Dalton completed 68.7 percent for 418 yards with two TDs and zero INTs.

Seattle's "rough outing" was a 'walk in the park' compared to what Pittsburgh experienced last Sunday night in Foxborough. The Pats opened a 20-0 halftime lead and cruised to a 33-3 win. New England outgained Pittsburgh 465-308, as Brady passed for 341 yards and three TDs. Big Ben threw 47 times, completing 27 for 276 yards and never got the Steelers into the end zone. The Pittsburgh running game gained just 32 yards on 2.5 YPG.

Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger engaged in a high-octane shootout the last time they shared the field, with Wilson passing for 345 yards and five TDs in a 39-30 home win. Roethlisberger passed for 456 yards but just one score. However, that was back in 2015. Here's what matters in this Week 2 meeting in 2019. The Steelers are 8-1 SU after losses by at least 20 points during Roethlisberger's 15-plus years in the league, while the Seahawks have made a habit of starting slow the last four-plus seasons. Seattle is now 3-6 SU the first two weeks of the season since the start of 2015, while going 0-8-1 ATS. That's a 100% "go-against!" Pittsburgh puts last Sunday night's debacle behind it with a CONVINCING win!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* NFL Week 2 Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Giants at 1:00 ET.

Sean McDermott got the Buffalo head coaching job in 2017 and ended a 17-year postseason drought for the franchise by going 10-6 in his first season to earn a wild card berth. However, the Bills regressed in 2018, going 6-10. Buffalo surprised most by going 4-0 in the 2019 preseason and then the Bills beat the Jets 17-16 at MetLife Stadium in Week 1. Buffalo allowed the first 16 points in its season opener before rallying in the second half to earn the one-point victory.Josh Allen orchestrated a pair of TD drives in the fourth quarter, scoring on a 3-yard scramble to get the Bills within 16-10, before connecting with John Brown for a 38-yard TD with three minutes remaining. Allen's late heroics helped atone for his earlier play, as he became the first NFL quarterback to commit four turnovers (two interceptions, two fumbles) in a victory since 2013.

The Bills return to MetLife Stadium looking for their first 2-0 start since 2014 to take on the Giants, who are trying to avoid a sixth 0-2 start since 2013. The Giants, like the Bills, delivered a 4-0 preseason. However, they were not up to the challenge of slowing down Dallas QB Dak Prescott in Week 1, as he threw for 405 yards and four TDs (zero INTs). Dallas jumped out early against the Giants and led 35-10 into the fourth quarter, with the Giants scoring with just over two minutes left in the game for the 35-17 final.

Which Josh Allen will we see on Sunday? The one who played so poorly for most of the game, or that one which led the 4th-quarter comeback. As for the Giants, Eli threw for 306 yards (1 TD / 0 INTS) plus Barkley added 120 yards rushing (10.9 YPC), but the Giants trailed by 25 points as the 2-minute warning approached. Buffalo as a road favorite? The Bills have been favored on the road just EIGHT times over their last 50 games, going 2-6 ATS in those rare occurrences .Daniel Jones is 'looking over Eli's shoulder' (and the fans are likely behind tat move) but I'm betting the vet can earn a win here against an improving but "not there just yet" Buffalo team.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Week is on Purdue at 7:30 ET.

Purdue led Nevada 24-7 at the half in Reno and extended its lead to 17 points again at 34-17, late in the third quarter. However, the Boilermakers never scored again and lost 34-31 (as 11-point road favorites), on a 56-yard FG as time expired by a walk-on freshman placekicker. The 'killer' was five turnovers and the Boilermakers knew they had to correct that right away. Purdue hosted Vanderbilt last Saturday and its lone turnover was an interception thrown by QB Elijah Sindelar. However, the junior could be forgiven, as he was named the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week after completing 34-of-52 passes for a career-high 509 yards and five touchdowns. Sindelar became the 18th player to surpass 3,000 passing yards at Purdue and although he suffered a concussion late in the fourth quarter, he practiced Wednesday and is expected to play.

TCU opened its 2019 season with a 39-7 win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff on Aug 31 and then had last week off. Gary Patterson has had some career at TCU, taking over full-time in 2001 and going to 16 bowls the last 18 seasons. Eleven times his teams have won double digits in a single season, including the 2010 team going 13-0 after a Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin (TCU ended as the nation's 2nd-ranked team). The Horned Frogs did go 11-3 in 2017 but in 2016 went 6-7 after a bowl loss and in 2019 went 7-6, after a bowl win.

The Horned Frogs played two QBs in their season-opening win and graduate transfer Alex Delton and freshman Max Duggan are expected to split snaps once again. The duo completed 26 of 45 for 284 yards (1 TD / 0 INTs) and the running game ran for 200 yards (5.6 YPC). However, the opponent WAS Arkansas-Pine Bluff. TCU averaged just 23.5 PPG, after a four-year run of averaging 33.6, 31.0, 42.1 and 46.5. The defense only returns five starters but Patterson rarely fields a poor defensive team.

Still, Sindelar has thrown for 932 yards with nine TDs in his first two games and has one of the nation's best WRs in Rondale Moore, who caught 114 passes last season for 12 TDs. He already has 24 catches and two TDs after two games. Purdue has a  HUGE edge at the QB position and with next week off (Big Ten play begins Sep 28), this is a "statement" game for Purdue's season. Take a note that in 2018, Purdue beat three ranked opponents at home ( #23 BC  30-13, 32 Ohio St 49-20 and #19 Iowa 38-360, for the first time since 1959. The small home dog 'barks' VERY 'loudly' in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Cy-Hawk Rivalry is on Iowa at 4:00 ET.

Iowa State struggled in its season opener at home against Northern Iowa on Aug 31, before winning 29-26 in triple-overtime. The Cyclones were off last weekend, getting an extra week to prepare for its biggest non-conference rival, Iowa.ISU was happy for the extra week off to make necessary adjustments after its lackluster debut. "It’s really good to have an opportunity to step back and say, Is what we’re doing the right thing? Where do we need to get better? What are the things that might help our offense or might help our defense?" offensive coordinator Tom Manning told the Ames Tribune. Iowa comes to Ames 2-0 and ranked 19th in the latest AP poll, after opening with home wins over Miami-Ohio (38-14) and Rutgers (30-0).

The Hawkeyes have hardly been tested so far by Mia-O and Rutgers but it's good news that QB Nate Stanley, who came into the season with high expectations (52-16 TD-to-INT ratio the last two years), is living up to the hype with 488 passing yards, six TDs and no interceptions through the first two games. It's true that Iowa's first two opponents were hardly ranked opponents but Kirk Ferentz-coached teams always play excellent defense. Iowa has opened by allowing 185.0 YPG (4th), 113.5 passing YPG (8th), 71.5 rushing YPG (16th) and 7.0 PPG (8th). The Cyclones managed to survive Northern Iowa in Week 1 thanks in large part to the connection between QB Brock Purdy (30-41 for 278 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs) and wide receiver Deshaunte Jones, who finished with career highs of 14 catches for 126 yards. Purdy took over as ISU's starting QB on Oct 13 and led the Cyclones to a 7-1 finish, before losing 28-26 to Washington St in the Alamo Bowl.

Having last weekend off is an advantage for ISU but Iowa's Kirk Ferentz has figured out this rivalry with FOUR straight wins. Iowa QB Stanley, a senior, is trying to go out 4-0 against the Cyclones, after coming in as a backup his freshman year (a 42-3 win) and starting this rivalry game the last two years in 13-3 and 44-41 wins. Iowa is off next weekend and then hosts Middle Tenn St on Sep 28.  A win here and the Hawkeyes should be 4-0 when it begins Big Ten play at Michigan on Oct 5. Bet on it!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Navy at 3:30 ET.

The 1-1 East Carolina Pirates and the 1-0 Navy Midshipmen meet an  AAC opener for both teams at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium on Saturday afternoon. The Pirates feel good after a 48-9 win over Gardner-Webb Saturday, as QB Holton Ahlers threw for 195 yards (1 TD / 1 INT) plus added 78 yards rushing with two TDs. RBs Pinnix (134 yards / 2 TDs) and Mauney (103 yards) each topped 100 yards but after all, the game was against Gardner-Webb. Navy was idle last weekend, after opening its season with a 45-9 romp over Holy Cross back on Aug 31. Navy rolled up 531 yards in that contest.

East Carolina entered this season off three consecutive 3-9 years and a win over Gardner Webb hardly means much. The Prates opened the season with a 34-6 loss at NC State, getting outgained 505-to-269 in yards. Ahlers threw for a modest 168 yards and ran for just 11 yards on 10 carries. Two RBs topped 100 yards vs Gardner-Webb but that duo accounted for just 20 yards on the ground in 13 carries! Navy may not be NC St but don't sell Ken Niumatalolo's team short.

He took over at Navy when Pauk Johnson moved on to Ga Tech and led the Midshipmen to NINE bowls in his first 10 seasons. The Middies "fell apart" in 2018, going 3-10. Actually, the team's 'fall' began in 2017, when Navy lost SIX of its last seven regular season games, after opening 5-0. I'm expecting a bounce-back season from Navy, which has a talented QB in Malcolm Perry and a group of RBs to make the team's option work. Yes, it was only Holy Cross but the Middies did roll up 428 yards on the ground while averaging 6.4 YPC.

Navy's been an excellent September team for the last four-plus seasons, as the team enters this contest 13-2 SU its last 15 September games. Granted, Navy will have to win by just over a TD to cover but East Carolina is 9-30-1 ATS in its last 40 conference games and 7-21 ATS in its last 28 road games. Zeroing in even closer, the Pirates are a woeful 3-12-1 ATS their last 16 as a road underdog, which is an 80%

My 8* Friday Night Lights Play is on Houston at 9:15 ET.

Mike Leach career ended at Texas Tech after the 2009 season, amid lots of controversy. He resurfaced in Pullman with Wash St but saw his second season (6-7 after a bowl loss), sandwiched around a pair of 3-9 seasons in his first and third years. However, Wash St entered the 2019 season off FOUR straight bowl appearances, with his Cougars finishing 11-2 in 2018 and 10th in the AP's final poll. Washington State lost QB Greg Minshew (70.7%, 4,779 yard, 38-9 ratio) to the NFL but its offense is in mid-season form after just two games, as Anthony Gordon (five pass attempts in 2018) has completed 81.1% of his passes for 884 yards with nine TDs and just one INT. WSU has scored 117 points (58.5 PPG ranks 5th) on 606.0 YPG (7th), although the team is averaging only 112.0 YPG on the ground (110th).

The Cougars travel to Houston Friday night to take on the 1-1 Houston Cougars at NRG Stadium (home of the NFL's Texans). The Cougars opened their season Sep 1 at Oklahoma and while they never threatened to win the game, they were able to cover as a 21 1/2-point underdog in the 18-point loss. However, Oklahoma ran up 686 total yards, as QB Jalen Hurts passed for 332 yards and three TDs, while adding 176 rushing yards and another three TDs. Last Saturday's 37-17 home win over Prairie View A&M was hardly impressive.

Will Houston have much luck slowing down Gordon and the WSU offense? No, but don't be too quick to dismiss Houston. UH is 3-0 at NRG Stadium (just five miles for the campus) since 2012, a 33-23 upset over Oklahoma in 2016. Even more noteworthy is the fact that Houston is 8-1 ATS as an underdog vs ranked teams since 2013 (that's an 89% winning situation). The LONE non-cover in that stretch came in last year's 70-14 beatdown by Army in Armed Forces Bowl when QB D’Eriq King was out with injury. King is a true dual-threat, who passed for 2,582 yards in 2018 (36-6 ratio) plus ran for 674 yards and 14 TDs. In a much 'friendlier' venue that Norman on Sep 1, don't be surprised if King out-shines Gordon, giving the 20th-ranked Cougars all they want. Upset alert? Maybe, but take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Non-Conference ACC Showdown is on Wake Forest at 6:00 ET

Mack Brown had a great six-year run at North Carolina from 1992-1997. He led the Tar Heels to six straight bowls and had three, 10-win seasons. That was a springboard to take the job at Texas. He won nine games in each of his first three years but then won double digits in NINE consecutive season (2001-09). His 2004 team won the BCS national championship by ending USC's 34-game winning streak, 41-38. The 2009 team lost the BCS national championship game 37-21 to Alabama. Brown would coach the Longhorns for four more seasons but the 'Horns went just 30-21 and Brown resigned after the 2013 season. Brown was named head coach at North Carolina in November of 2018 after a 5-year absence from coaching and 21 years after he left UNC for Texas. The Tar Heels upset South Carolina in Charlotte 24-20 as a 12 1/2-point dog on Aug 31 and then, after watching a 17-3 first-quarter lead evaporate (UNC trailed 25-20 with about 4 1/2 minutes left), pulled it together and scored a TD and added a two-point conversion with 1:01 remaining for a 28-25 victory.

North Carolina plays its first true road game of 2019 this Saturday, when it visits Winston-Salem to take on ACC rival Wake Forest. Under the current ACC two-division, 14-team alignment, the Tar Heels and Demon Deacons are scheduled to play each other just once every SEVEN years. The schools wanted more and were allowed to play this year in what will be considered a "non-conference" contest (odd arrangement). Dave Clawson got his first FBS head coaching jog at Bowling Green in 2009 and in his fifth season (2013), his Falcons upset a 13-0 Northern Illinois team in the MAC championship game. He used that win to get the job at Wake and after going 3-9 in each of his first two years, he's led Wake to three straight bowl games, winning all THREE! Wake opened with a 38-35 home win over Utah St and then won 41-21 at Rice last Saturday.

Both teams have QBs off to excellent starts. North Carolina freshman Sam Howell has passed for four scores and 519 yards while directing four-quarter comebacks in each of his first two contests. He's the first-ever first true freshman to start a season at QB for North Carolina. Eight different receivers have caught at least one pass through two games plus RB Javonte Williams has added 178 rushing yards on 6.4 YPC. Wake's Jamie Newman, who won a quarterback battle in training camp after starting the final four games a season ago, has completed 74.3% for 713 yards (that total leads the ACC) with six TDs and not a single INT. The running game chips in 189.5 YPG (4.1 YPC).

Kudos to Brown for his team's fast start but the Tar Heels have played at Charlotte (hardly a neutral site against the Gamecocks) plus at home vs Miami. This true road game at Wake will be a big test, against an offense averaging  39.5 PPG on 546.0 YPG (12th), including 356.5 YPG through the air (11th). The Carolina hype is running high, as it's been said that the people at Chapel Hill haven't already turned their attention to Roy Williams' basketball team.Wake owns some explosive playmakers and it just may be time to start talking hoops in Chapel Hill after this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AFC West Game of the Month is on the Oak Raiders at 10:20 ET.

The Broncos went 5-11 & 6-10 under Van Joseph and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. The Raiders made it to the Super Bowl in 2002 (lost to Tampa Bay and Jon Gruden) but have since had just ONE winning season in the last 15. Ironically, Jon Gruden was hired away from the TV booth to resurrect the team last season but that hardly went well, as Oakland finished 4-12 The Raiders went 3-1 in the preseason but the month of August was dominated by disgruntled wide receiver Antonio Brown.

It appeared that the Raiders were going to suspend Brown before he delivered an emotional apology to teammates Friday, when the club changed course and said he would play Monday. However, Brown posted "release me" Saturday on Instagram and Oakland complied after an tumultuous training camp and a heated exchange with 1st-year GM Mike Mayock. The Raiders released Brown two days prior to tonight's season opener. To add "insult to injury," Brown immediately signed with the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots.

That's the back story. Here in 2019, the Broncos and Raiders are expected to battle for 3rd 7 4th-place in the division (Chiefs are the clear favorite with the Chargers a legitimate threat and strong wild card contender). Joe Flacco is Denver's latest starting QB and I have NO faith he's got much of anything left. He burst on the scene to lead the Ravens to the playoffs in each of his 1st five years and in 2012, led Baltimore to the championship. Flacco had a "Montana-like" postseason in 2012, passing for 1,140 yards in four wins with 11 TD & 0 INTs (117.2 QB rating). His timing was just right, as on March 4, 2013, he became the highest-paid QB in NFL history when he signed a six-year contract worth $120.6 million (that has long-since be surpassed). However, after posting a 54-26 record as a starter through his first five seasons Flacco was just 42-41 as a starter the L6 seasons. A hip injury during a Wk 9 loss in 2018 saw Flacco replaced by rookie Lamar Jackson, who led the Ravens to a 6-1 finish. In February 2019, the Ravens agreed to trade Flacco to the Denver Broncos in exchange for their 4th-round pick in the 2014 draft. BTW... Jackson threw for 324 yards & 5TD passes in Baltimore's 59-10 Week 1 win.

Without Brown, Tyrell Williams will likely emerge as the marquee WR for Oakland, as he makes his club debut after catching 153 passes and scoring 16 TDs over the last three seasons with the Chargers. Oakland selected running back Josh Jacobs with the 24th overall pick and hope the former Alabama star can improve a ground game that was 25th in the league in each of the last two seasons, while taking pressure off QB Derek Carr.The Raiders made protecting Carr a bigger priority this season after he was sacked a career-worst 51 times last year. Let's not be too quick to forget. Carr barely missed throwing for 4,000 yards in 2015 and 2016 (3,900-plus) and featured a 60-19 TD-to-INT ratio. Despite getting sacked 51 times in 2018, he threw for 4,049 yards with 19 TDs and just 10 INTs in 553 attempts!

You may read the following and get nervous. Denver owns the league's highest Week 1 winning percentage at .672 (39-19-1) and has won seven straight season openers, which is the NFL's longest active streak. Then again, how about this for some current trends?The Broncos are just 5-13 ATS during their past 18 away matchups and have failing to cover in EIGHT of their last 10 division games. Better yet, let's note that he home team has won the last SIX meetings in the series and Oakland comes in as a home dog! I love Carr over Flacco in this matchup.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the NE Pats at 8:20 ET.

The New England Patriots have won six world championships over the past 18 seasons behind future Hall of Famer Tom Brady (Belichick may deserve some credit here, as well) and will begin their bid for a FOURTH consecutive Super Bowl appearance (only team to have done that is the Bills) against the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night. The Patriots have won at least 10 games in 16 straight seasons, tying the San Francisco f49ers for the most in NFL history. The Steelers are a fitting Week 1 opponent for the Pats, as Pittsburgh is the only other franchise to win six Super Bowls and happens to be the last team to beat the Pats, winning 17-10 in Week 15 of last year at Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger begins his 16th NFL season, after throwing for 5,129 yards and 34 TDs last season. However, WR Antonio Brown, who surpassed 100 receptions and 1,200 yards in each of the last SIX seasons is now playing for Oakland (I think?) and Le'Veon Bell, arguably the NFL's most-versatile RB, is now playing for the Jets, after sitting out all of last year. The good news is that wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster showed he is capable of a No. 1 role by catching 111 passes and scoring seven times in 2018, while  James Conner stepped in for Bell and rushed for 973 yards and 12 scores while gathering in 55 receptions and a TD in 2018. 

Brady will surely miss Gronk but the 42-year-old showed few signs of slowing down in 2018, throwing for 4,355 yards and 29 touchdowns despite playing with a patchwork crew of WRs (that's not exactly new). Julian Edelman captured Most Valuable Player honors in Super Bowl LIII with 10 receptions for 141 yards plus RB Sony Michel rushed for 930 yards and six scores as a rookie, while backfield mate James White led the team with 87 catches. There have been naysayers recently with some of New England's defensive play but the unit held the Rams (32.9 PPG in the regular season) to just THREE points in the Super Bowl win.

The Steelers 17-10 win as 2 1/2-point home underdogs in Week 15 was the the team's first victory against New England since 2011. Brady has never lost to the Steelers at Gillette Stadium (5-0), as Big Ben’s only career win at Gillette Stadium came when Tom Brady was sidelined in 2008. Brady owns a 13-3 record in Week 1, completing nearly 70-percent of his passes while throwing for 34 TDs against just 10 interceptions. The Steelers were 6-0 as an underdog in 2018 but how does one ignore that the Pats enters this contest with a 39-16-2 ATS mark (71.0%) their last 57 home games. Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Sep Game of the Month is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET.

The Falcons and the Vikings square off in a Week 1 matchup at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minnesota.on Sunday afternoon.The Falcons ended a 12-game preseason losing streak on Aug 30 witha 31-12 win at Jacksonville (Jags finished 0-4). The Vikings lost their final preseason game but had won and covered their first three. That's nothing new, as Mike Zimmer is 19-6 SU and 14-7 ATS in preseason plays since taking over as Minnesota's head coach. Atlanta's Dan Quinn enters his fifth season as Atlanta's head coach but one wonders if he and his team will ever be able to overcome the devastating loss in the Super Bowl to the Pats following the 2016 season (blew a 28-3 lead!). Zimmer begins his sixth year at Minnesota (47-32-1 record). The Vikes' best season under Zimmer was in 2017 (13-3), when they lost the NFC championship game at Philly.

Atlanta’s offense hasn’t been able to replicate what it did in the 2016 season when Matt Ryan (4,944 yards / 38-7 ratio) was the NFL's MVP and led the Falcons to the Super Bowl (Falcons were the NFL's highest-scoring team at 33.8 PPG).The Falcons averaged just 22.1 PPG in 2017 and while they improved slightly last season (26.8), they finished 7-9. The Falcons’ defense was 27th in yards per play allowed amid serious injuries to some of the team’s most important players in 2018. In fact, the defense has ranked no better than 20th in three out of four years under head coach Dan Quinn.

In Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook, the Vikings have an excellent group of playmakers. The offensive line is expected to be much better than it was in 2018, when it had trouble giving Kirk Cousins much time in the pocket. Cousins' difficulties against good teams have been well-documented but I'm not sure the Falcons will be a "good team" in 2019. The Vikings went 8-1-1 SU last season against teams that finished the year with fewer than 10 wins and own an 18-2-1 record against such teams over the last two seasons.

Atlanta has covered the spread just ONCE in its last six games against Minnesota and checks in 4-12 ATS since 2017 on the regular season road (75% "go-against"). Minnesota is 36-16-1 ATS in its last 53 home games and Zimmer is 4-1 in season-openers plus checks in 9-3 ATS his last 12 September games.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* NFL Week 1 Las Vegas Insider is on the Ten Titans at 1:00 ET.

The Cleveland Browns had a promising finish last year, winning FIVE of their last seven to end the season at 7-8-1. That's pretty rarefied air considering te team was 0-16, 1-15 and 3-13 the previous two seasons. That promising finish coupled with a strong off-season have expectations are running high in Cleveland. QB Baker Mayfield is trying to follow up an excellent rookie campaign (63.8% / 3,725 yards / 27-14 ratio). Star wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. joined the team in the off-season and join fellow WR Jarvis Landry (81 catches). RB Nick Chubb (996 yards / 5.2 YPC / 8 TDs) expects to top 1,000 yards in 2019.The Titans are a solid team in the AFC South, the most competitive and strongest division in the AFC. The Titans have won nine games in each of the last three years and the hope is that this is the year QB Marcus Mariota stays healthy (he's yet to play all 16 games).

Tennessee doesn’t have superstars but the Titans don’t have any glaring weaknesses. Only TWO teams surrendered fewer points per game than the Titans last season (18.9) and they ranked eighth in yards allowed. Offensively, a lot of the Titans success will come down to Mariota simply staying healthy. Tennessee made several moves in an effort to upgrade the protection around him, giving a $44 million contract to free agent left guard Rodger Saffold and drafting guard Nate Davis in the third round.The Titans have upgraded Mariota’s receiving corps, adding slot-option Adam Humphries, rookie wideout A.J. Brown and getting tight end Delanie Walker back from an ankle injury that sidelined him most of last season. RBDerrick Henry showed how dominant he can be by rushing for 585 yards and scoring seven TDs during the final four games.

The Browns haven’t been ranked inside the top-20 in offensive points scored since 2007 but that should change in 2019. However, the Browns gave up the third-most yards per game last year (393.0 YPG), while ranking 28th in run defense (135.2 YPG). I think expectations are running WAY too high on the Browns. Is Mayfield really that good? He struggled against the better defensive teams he played against  last season and the Titans will bring their "D" to Cleveland. Here's something I will NOT ignore. Cleveland is 5-14-2 ATS in its last 21 games in Week 1 and 9-20 ATS in its last 29 home games. As for the Titans, they have covered 10 of their last 15 games as an underdog of at least three points, while Browns have failed to cover EIGHT of their last 11 games as a favorite of at least three points. Finally, the Browns last won a Week 1 game back in 2004, losing 13 in a row before playing a 21-21 tie in 2018. At this pointspread, the Browns would have been 0-14 ATS in those games. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Run-line Rout is on the LA Dodgers at 9:10 ET.

The Los Angeles Dodgers haven't yet officially clinched their SEVENTH straight NL West title but it's been pretty much a foregone conclusion since the All Star break. However, still at stake for LA here in September is securing the NL's best overall record and catching the Yankees and Astros for MLB's best overall record. Both of those pursuits took a hit last night, as the Dodgers lost 5-4 at home to the Giants. LA is 92-51 but with Atlanta's win over the Nats, the Braves are now 88-54, just 3 1/2 games back of the Dodgers. Over in the AL, Houston and New York are both 92-50, a half-game ahead of LA.

Taking the mound tonight will be Tyler Beede (3-9, 5.61 ERA) and Tony Gonsolin (2-1, 2.89), a pair of rookies. Beede's last win came back on July 14 when he won 8-3 at Milwaukee. His next start was OUTSTANDING (eight scoreless innings at home vs the Mets) but he settled for a no-decision in a 1-0 Giants win. However, he's 0-6 with a 6.81 ERA over his last eight starts (team is 0-8). Beede's been awful on the road all season, posting a 6.81 ERA, 1.74 WHIP and .297 BAA. Gonsolin's major-league debut was June 26 at Arizona and he allowed four ERs in four innings of an 8-2 loss. He made a relief appearance about a month later but he's been part of the rotation in August, going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in four starts. LA is a more modest 2-2 in those starts but note that in his only two home starts this season, he's 2-0 with an 0.82 ERA, 0.64 WHIP and a .111 BAA!

LA can't afford another slip-up against a team like the Giants, who are just 5-12 over their last 17 games to fall out of any realistic hopes in the NL's wild-card chase (8 1/2 games back with FOUR teams between them and the second wild card team / Giants would have to climb over FIVE teams!). The Dodgers own the most home wins of any team in MLB, going 55-19 while outscoring opponents 5.42-to-3.30 RPG. I noted Beede's road numbers (see above) and the rookie right-hander faces a Dodgers lineup which is 41-10 at home vs right-handed starters, averaging 5.8 RPG. Kershaw pitched just four innings last night (allowed three runs) but I expect the rookie to "step up" here vs the hated-Giants. Lay the 1 1/2 runs.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on Texas at 7:00 ET.

2019's Week 1 saw just one top-25 matchup, as No. 16 Auburn pulled out a late 27-21 win over No. 11 Oregon in Arlington, Tx last Saturday night. The victory moved Auburn to the No. 10 spot in the new AP poll, while Oregon dropped to No. 16.. The two marquee matchups of Week 2 are No. 1 Clemson putting its 16-game winning streak on the line at home vs No. 12 Texas A7M and No. 6 LSU visiting No. 9 Texas. No one really expects A&M to upset Clemson, so in effect, the LSU/Texas game holds more drama and the winner will firmly establish itself as a top-10 team. LSU unveiled a new spread offense in its opener against Georgia Southern and rolled up 472 yards in a 55-3 rout. Texas did not face much of a challenge in its season opener either, easing past Louisiana Tech in Austin, 45-14.

LSU's senior QB Joe Burrow was 23-of-27 for 278 yards and five TDs last Saturday, as different players recorded at least one catch. Spreading the ball around is key to the team's new offensive system plus Burrow is trying to get the ball out quicker this season. So far, so good. He was not sacked in the opener. LSU always plays great defense and the out-manned Eagles were held to 98 total yards and just eight FDs. Texas QB Sam Ehlinger completed 28-of-38 passes for 276 yards and four touchdowns without an interception in the opener but LSU's secondary is one of the best in the country. Texas ran for 153 yards last week (5.1 YPC) but doing that again vs LSU's defensive front is HIGHLY unlikely. A concern for Texas is the Longhorns allowing 413 total yards against La Tech, including 340 through the air.

Ex-Saints aide Joe Brady had LSU's "new-look" passing game in mid-season form but should LSU really be favored hetr in Austin (and by about a TD!!)? The temperature in Austin likely will approach 100 degrees on Saturday and that opens the door for fatigue to play a role. Tom Herman has made quite a name for himself in his four years as a head coach in "big games."  He is 10-6 SU as an underdog and a MONEY-MAKING 13-2-1 ATS. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* LEGEND Play is on Tennessee at 7:00 ET.

Phillip Fulmer took over as Tennessee's head coach during the 1992 season for Johnny Majors. He would go on to coach 16 full season at Knoxville, winning 10 or more games NINE times, while taking the Vols to a bowl game in 15 of 17 years (includes 1992, when he took over for Majors). His 1998 team won the national championship with a 13-0 record. However, he was let go (allowed to resign) in 2008 and the Vols have not reached double digits in wins in ANY of the last 10 seasons (high-mark was nine wins in 2015 and 2016). Jeremy Pruitt's first season ended 5-7 and then he began Year 2 with what many are calling "the worst defeat in program history!" The Vols hosted a Georgia St team which came in after closing 2018 with SEVEN straight losses and as a 25-point underdog, beat the Vols 38-30. Tennessee QB Jarrett Guarantano admitted he was "disgusted" following the eight-point loss, which is even a little deceptive given that the Volunteers scored a last-second TD.

BYU comes to Knoxville off a NINTH straight "Holy War" loss to Utah. The Cougars fell 30-12,as three BYU turnovers led directly to three Utah scores. BYU enters 2019 playing its 10th consecutive season as an Independent. The Cougars bounced back from an 'ugly' 4-9 finish in 2017 (school's first losing season since 2004) to finish 7-6 in 2018, after a 49-18 rout of Western Michigan in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.Head coach Kalani Sitake enters his fourth season at BYU and the offense is led by sophomore QB Zach Wilson, who started the final seven games of 2018 (note: he was a perfect 18-for-18 for 307 yards with four TD passes in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl). Wilson rushed for 43 yards vs Utah, while achieving career highs in passing attempts (33) and completions (21). However, he threw for a modest 208 yards plus had two interceptions returned for TDs. BYU ran for only 92 yards and gained only 14 FDs. Defensively, BYU allowed 262 yards on the ground (5.5 YPC).

Technical trends surely don't favor the Vols, who are now 3-12 ATS over their last 15 home games. Meanwhile, BYU is 9-2 as a road dog since the beginning of 2016. However, I'm throwing out the tech trends here, as Tennessee had won 30 straight home games vs non-Power-5 conference schools prior to last week.QB Guarantano recorded the second 300-yard game of his career last Saturday finishing with 311 yards and a pair of TDs. Another postive was Tennessee committed just THREE penalties last week. It's just Week 2 but the Vols could be in a "Make or Break" seasonal mode in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* play is on Texas St at 7:00 ET.

The Wyoming Cowboys pulled a Week 1 shocker, upsetting Missouri 37-31 in Laramie as 15-point home dog. QB Sean Chambers threw for just 92 yards on 6 of 16 passing but led the Cowboys in rushing with 120 yards and a TD. RB Xazavian Valladay added 118 yards on the ground and also score a TD. A worry has to be a defense which allowed Missouri 537 total yards and 28 FDs. Winning the TO 'battle' 3-0 was a HUGE key for Wyoming.The Texas State Bobcats were manhandled 41-7 at Texas A&M to open their season and the team's lone score came on a 27-yard TD pass with only 36 seconds left in the game (giving them a push/ATS win).

Wyoming took full advantage of a rare home game (at 7,200 feet) against a bottom-rung SEC foe but the Cowboys hit the road this week in what sets up as a classic letdown spot. Texas State has a new head coach in Jake Spavital and 19 of 22 starters are back from the 2018 team. This is just the fourth meeting between the two schools and the home teams has won SU in each of the first three. The home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one!

Good luck...Larry

My 7* play is on UCLA at 4:15 ET.

The San Diego State Aztecs opened their season with a victory but a 6-0 home win over Weber St as a 12-point favorite was hardly inspiring. UCLA had a "revenge" game with Cincy to open its 2019 season but fell, 24-14. Chip Kelly's first season at UCLA was an unqualified disaster (3-9) and a loss here almost guarantees an 0-3 start to 2019, as Oklahoma visits the Rose Bowl next Saturday. SDSU gained just 238 yards at home vs an FCS team (granted a nationally-ranked one) and the Aztecs have NEVER beaten the Bruins. The schools first met back in 1922 and the Bruins lead the series 21-0-1. Kelly has 19 starters back and this is a game he can and NEEDS to win. I'm laying the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Eye-Opener is on Purdue at 12:00 ET.

Vanderbilt had a tough season-opener on Aug 31, as No. 3 Georgia visited Nashville. The 'Dores fell behind 21-0 in the first 22 minutes against the Bulldogs and managed just a pair of Ryley Guay field FGs in a 30-6 loss. Yes, Vandy was out-gained 479-225 but the team's "D" was able to keep Georgia's potent offense from scoring a TD over the game's final 37 minutes. Purdue traveled to Reno, Nevada to open its season on Aug 31 (farthest the Boilermakers had traveled for s a season-opener since 2009 at Eugene, Oregon). Purdue led 24-7 at the half and extended its lead to 17 points again at 34-17, late in the third quarter. However, the Boilermakers never scored again and lost 34-31 (as 11-point road favorites). on a 56-yard FG as time expired by a walk-on freshman placekicker. The two schools will meet for the first time since 1942 when the Commodores travel to West Lafayette, Ind. on Saturday afternoon.

Vandy QB Riley Neal finished 14-of-25 for just 85 yards against a Georgia defense expected to be one of the best in the nation. Senior running back Ke'Shawn Vaughn, who rushed for 1,244 yards and 12 TDs in 2018, had 74 yards on 15 carries. Obviously, Purdue's defense will be an easier test but while Vandy did 'hold' Georgia to 30 points, the defense did allow 481 yards. Purdue's senior QB Elijah Sindelar completed 34-of-52 passes for 423 yards and four TDs but also threw two second-half interceptions that helped key the Wolf Pack's comeback. All-American wide receiver Rondale Moore had 11 receptions for 124 yards and a touchdown but also fumbled a punt that set up a Nevada field goal.

Jeff Brohm's Purdue team returned just three offensive starters but last Saturday's performance on the road shows that they’re capable of putting points on the board. NINE defensive starters return, so expect Purdue to have much better success here at home, against a questionable Vandy offense. Purdue let a game slip away that it rightfully should’ve won last Saturday and here at home, should "get it right" vs Vandy, a team which has lost its last SEVEN road openers when playing a Power-5 school. Jeff Brohm was seen as a rising star at Western Ky (30-10 record, while leading the Hilltoppers to three straight bowl berths) but so far, he's finding the Big Ten much tougher. The SEC is of course a 'monster' but Vandy is VERY beatable. Lay it!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Friday Night Lights play is on Marshall at 9:00 ET.

I referred to Boise St last week as the “Gonzaga of College Football." After all, the Broncos began to ascend to prominence on the gridiron in the late ‘90s, about the same time the Bulldogs began 'making noise' on the hardwood. Twenty years later, the Broncos and Bulldogs keep winning. The Broncos went 10-3 in 2018 (bowl game vs Boston College was cancelled due to inclement weather) and the Broncos reached double digits in wins for the 16th time in the last 20 years. The Broncos opened their 2019 season with a trip to Tallahassee (moved from Jacksonville because of the hurricane situation) and after falling behind 31-13 by the late second quarter, staged a dramatic comeback.The BSU defense tightened (FSU never scored over the game's final 34 minutes and was held to just 68 yards in the second half), while freshman QB Hank Bachmeier, hailed as one of the best recruits in Boise State football history, gave every indication that he's "the real deal." Bachmeier threw for 407 yards (one TD / one INT) plus was greatly helped by a running game that ran 57 times (the second-most during Harsin's tenure as coach since 2014) for 214 yards. RB Robert Mahone had 142 yards (he ran for just 128 all last year and 115 in 2017) and two TDs.

The Broncos are back home Friday night to host Marshall. Doc Holliday's Thundering Herd have been 'bowling' in FIVE of the last six seasons and have won EACH bowl contest! Marshall 'tuned up' last Saturday with a 56-17 romp over VMI, an FCS school. Marshall amassed 620 yards of total offense, while limiting VMI to 257. The Herd had a balanced attack of 340 yards passing and 280 rushing with 35 FDs.QB Isaiah Green (18-28 for 233 yards) threw a career-high four TD passes and the running game averaged 6.1 YPC.

Marshall should NOT be overlooked, as the Herd are 8-2 ATS the last three seasons when playing as an underdog. As for Boise, that famed "blue carpet" has not produced the kind of results Boise St bettors would have liked. In fact, the Broncos check in at 16-35-1 the last 51 games as a home favorite. Take the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Run-Line Game of the Month (AL) is on the Hou Astros at 8:10 ET.

The Houston Astros are cruising toward another AL West title (lead by NINE  games) but are in a 'dog fight' with the Yankees for the AL's No. 1 seed. The 90-50 Astros are 1 1/2 games back of the 92-49 Yankees as they get set to welcome the Seattle Mariners to Houston for a four-games series on Thursday night. The Mariners continue their road trip after managing a total of just TWO runs while dropping a two-game set at the Chicago Cubs to open the week. Seattle has lost SEVEN of nine and has scored three or fewer runs in SIX of its last eight games. Remember how Seattle opened the 2019 at 13-2. If you don't, you are NOT alone.

Taking the mound tonight will be Marco Gonzales (14-11, 4.30 ERA) and Wade Miley (13-4, 3.06 ERA). Gonzales won 13 games in 29 starts in 2018 (his first as a full-time starter) and makes his 30th start in this one with 14 victories. However, he saw a stretch of four straight starts allowing three runs or less come to an end when he gave up six runs (five earned) on seven hits and two walks over 5.2 innings in a 6-3 loss at Texas on Friday. Miley is part of a Houston starting rotation which features Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke but he's been the Astros' biggest money-maker. The Astros have won of his 28 starts, giving him a moneyline record of plus-$955 (8th-best in MLB).

Gonzlaes has pitched well for a team which collapsed after that 13-2 start (Seattle is just 45-80, .360 since) but he's up against it here. The lefty faces a Houston lineup that has gone 29-9 against left-handed starters in 2019, including 17-3 at home. More trouble comes in the fact that he's 0-4 with a 7.50 ERA over six career appearances (five starts / teams are 0-5) against the Astros. Miley is tied for third in the AL in ERA and enters this contest having allowed three ERs or less in each of his last 12 outings! Miley is 3-1 (3.40 ERA) in seven career starts against Seattle (teams are 6-1) and this year's Seattle team is 16-30 against lefties, including a woeful 3-12 in road night games. Lay the 1 1/2 runs!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Conference Game of the Month (ACC) is on Va Tech at 4:00 ET.

Florida State's 5-7 finish in 2018 was the school's worst since 1975 and its sub-500 season ended FSU's remarkable streak of 36 straight bowl appearances. That over-shadowed what happened in Blacksburg. Yes, Va Tech's 6-6 regular season record extended the school's bowl streak to 26 in a row (now the longest active streak) but the Hokies' 35-31 loss to Cincinnati in the Military Bowl gave the school its first losing season since 1992. Tech opened 4-2 but a four-game losing streak meant the Hokies needed to win their last two regular season games to make a bowl (see above for that result). Tech opens 2019 with a conference game on the road, as the Hokies travel to Chestnut Hill to take on Boston College. The Eagles beat Va Tech in Blacksburg 31-21 on Nov 2, giving them a 7-2 record and a top-25 ranking. However, BC lost its final three regular season games, before the school's bowl game against Boise St was cut short after one quarter by severe weather. BC has won exactly SEVEN games in FIVE of head coach Steve Addazio's six seasons, earning a bowl bid each time.

Ryan Willis took over early last season at QB and threw for 2,716 yards and 24 TDs with nine interceptions in 12 games. The senior is primed for a big year. WRs Damon Hazelton (51 catches / 802 yards / 8 TDs) and Tre Turner (26 catches / 535 yards / 4 TDs) will be his top targets, while junior TE Dalton Keene (28 catches) could have a breakout season. The rushing game will be RB by committee but Fuente had outstanding offenses at Memphis and this year's Va Tech team has all of the makings of a dynamic offense. Defensive Coordinator Bud Foster has been at Va Tech 'forever,' and after a succession of top-10 defenses for more than two decades, it's hard to NOT see a bounce-back from Tech's defense in 2019 (Tech allowed 31 PPG and almost 440 YPG in 2018). Note: 10 of 11 starters are back.

Junior RB Dillon missed roughly a month last year due to an ankle injury but he still finished with 1,108 yards and 10 TDs (he gained 1,589 yards with 14 TDs as a freshman). Junior QB Anthony Brown (2,121 passing yards, / 20 TDs) is back and he he'll and operate behind a solid Boston College OL. The BC defense returns just three starters from a unit which allowed 25.7 PPG and just over 400 YPG.

Boston College will undoubtedly be looking up at Clemson in the ACC Atlantic Division and probably Syracuse, as well. That means the Eagles will be fighting with FSU (greatly improved in 2019) and NC St for a third-place finish and a bowl berth. Meanwhile, the ACC's Coastal Division is wide-open and Va Tech is as good a pick as any to win it. The Hokies had beaten the Eagles in three straight before last year's game, winning by an average of 26 points. However, after the Hokies led 14-7 at the half last season, BC scored 24 unanswered points in an eventual 31-21 victory. Va Tech has won 23-10 and 26-10 in in last two visits to BC. That sounds about right, here. Revenge works!

Good luck...Larry

My NCAAF 10* August Game of the Month is on Florida St at 7:00 ET (note: game has been moved from Jacksonville to Tallahassee).

The Boise St Broncos went 10-3 in 2018 (bowl game vs BC was cancelled due to inclement weather) but the Broncos reached double digits in wins for the 16th time in the L20 years. The beat should go on at Boise this season, as the Broncos look to secure their 18th straight bowl berth. The Broncos open their 2019 season with a trip to Tallahassee(game moved from Jacksonville due to weather issues) where they will take on the Florida State Seminoles. Willie Taggart's 1st season in Tallahassee was an unqualified 'disaster,' as FSU's 5-7 finish was the school's worst s/1975. More notably, its bowl streak of 36 straight appearances came to an end. The Seminoles losing record was no fluke, as FSU lost FIVE games by 21 points or more, including a 59-10 loss to Clemson.

There is little doubt that Boise will again be "bowl-bound," as unlike in 2018 when the Broncos faced FOUR ranked teams, they may not face ANY in 2019. However, there are a ton of questions on the offensive side of the ball for Boise heading into 2019. 4-year starter Brett Rypien has finally graduated and left as the MWC’s all-time leading passer with 13,578 yards. The successor remained up in the air into fall camp, as five candidates who had attempted just 10 passes between them were competing in the spring. Hank Bachmeier has been hailed as one of the best recruits in Boise State history and just recently, head coach Bryan Harsin said Bachmeier will be the Broncos’ starting QB for their 2019 season opener. “Hank earned it,” Harsin said. “It wasn’t given to him. ... He made throws, he completed passes, he did things in the pocket and he made decisions out there that we want to see. And whether a freshman, senior, doesn’t matter, those are the things that we’re looking for at that position.” That said, Boise St lost its top-2 WRs from 2018 and early NFL draftee RB Alex Mattison (1,415 YR, 17 TDs) leaves a 'hole' in the backfield. No returning RB gained as much as 200 yards in 2018 (Harsin has talked about a "RB by committee"option) so Boise’s string of 10 straight years with a 1000-yard rusher might come to end.

FSU had QB questions coming into this season as well, but head coach Willie Taggart made the announcement last Sunday that James Blackman has won the starting job. Blackman beat out Wisconsin graduate transfer Alex Hornibrook and Louisville transfer Jordan Travis. Blackman has started 13 games, including 12 as a true freshman in 2017. He has thrown for 2,740 yards, 24 TDs & 12 INTs at FSU. In his only 2018 start, Blackman threw for 421 yards, four TDs and one interception in a 47-28 road loss to NC State. Taggert’s offense will have a different look this year with new O.C. Kendall Briles running the show. Briles’ features a fast-paced but simplified attack and expect Blackman to utilize an up-tempo attack, looking to keep the Broncos defense on its heels. Speaking of defense, EIGHT of FSU's top-10 tacklers are back and the unit has pledged to but last season's collapse (allowed 42.0 PPG its last five) in "the rear-view mirror."

I'm predicting a big "bounce-back" season for Taggert and FSU, as the Seminoles are loaded and athletic across the board. I expect the Boise D to be "on its heels," struggling in the heat and humidity of a "Hot August Night" in Florida (something the boys from Idaho can't simulate in practice). Yes, QB Hank Bachmeier is highly-touted but expect the true freshman to be in for a 'LONG' night against a highly-motivated and athletic FSU defense. I'm calling a two-TD 'cover' from FSU!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Eye-Opener is on Ole Miss at 12:00 ET.

Memphis football looked 'dead in the water' from 2009-13, going 12-50 (.194) in that five-year span. However, in Justin Fuente's third season at Memphis (2014), the Tigers would go 10-3, including a thrilling 55-48 (2 OT) victory over BYU in the Miami Beach Bowl. Fuente led the Tigers to a bowl berth again in 2015 but left to take the Va Tech job. Mike Norvell took over in 2016 and he's led the Tigers to three straight bowls but Memphis has lost each one. The Tigers are off a so-so 8-6 season and return 14 starters. The Ole Miss Rebels were just 5-7 last year and have won SIX or less games in each of the last three years, making the school's last bowl appearance back in 2015. That Sugar-Bowl winning team finished 10th in the final AP poll with a 10-3 record.

How quickly, things have fallen apart in Oxford. Matt Luke became the interim head coach at Ole Miss after Hugh Freeze was forced to resign back in June of 2017. After a late season push allowed Ole Miss to finish 6–6, the interim tag on November 26, 2017 and he became 37th head football coach in school history. However, last year's 5-7 record (1-7 in the SEC) has put some pressure on Luke. Luke sure didn't "stand pat," as he hired two successful former head coaches as his offensive and defensive coordinators. Rich Rodriguez (OC) and Mike MacIntyre (DC) are his new coordinators. When last seen, Rich-Rod’s spread option saw Arizona QB Khalil Tate create more than a few headlines and there was some Heisman-talk. Reports are that redshirt freshman Matt Corral (239 yards, 2 TDs) will thrive as Rich-Rod's QB and senior RB Scottie Phillips will get lots of work after he ran for 928 yards in his first season with the Rebels (JC transfer), While Rich-Rod's transition should go smoothly, Mike MacIntyre will have his hands full with the Rebels' defense. Ole Miss ranked 116th against the run and 111th against the pass in 2018. The Rebels are switching from a 4-3 to a 3-4 on defense and there is nowhere to go but up!

Norvell's Tigers have averaged 42.9, 45.5 and 38.8 PPG in his three seasons at Memphis and theTigers return QB Brady White (3,296 yards / 26-9 ratio). Leading rusher Darrell Henderson (1,909 yards, 22 TDs) and Tony Pollard (552, 6 TDs both decided to leave for the NFL but Patrick Taylor Jr. stuck around for his senior season. He ran for 1,122 yards, and 16 TDs. Memphis also returns three of its top-four receivers, including the outstanding Damonte Coxie, who caught 72 balls (1,174 yards and 7 TDs). The offense will again be prolific but the defense coughed up various big leads in 2018, finishing 105th in pass ranking and 76th in rush ranking (31.9 PPG).

OK, Ole Miss' defense stunk in 2018 but expect MacIntyre to make a difference. Ole Miss returns 11 of their 12 top-tacklers plus a probable top CB in Jaylon Jones, who missed 11 games due to a torn ACL. Ole Miss could really use a confidence boosting victory to set the tone for this season and the Rebels will likely have lots of support at the Liberty Bowl, which is just an hour or so from Oxford. Speaking of 'leaky' defenses, the Memphis D gave up 93 points in its losses in the AAC championship game loss (UCF) and the Birmingham Bowl loss (Wake Forest). Memphis also lost "big-time" at Missouri last season (an equally bad SEC defensive team, ala Ole Miss), 65-33! I'm taking the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Rivalry Game of the Month is on Utah at 10:15 ET.

You know it's a bitter rivalry when the schools involved can't even agree on when the first game was played. Utah claims a lead of 61–34–4, while BYU claims Utah leads 58–31–4, as BYU does not count the six games between Utah and Brigham Young Academy in its records (played prior to 1922). Either way, Utah has a large lead in the overall series and dominated the rivalry prior to 1972 by going 41–8–4. Then, BYU dominated the series with a record of 19–2 from 1972 to 1992. However, since 1993, Utah is 18-7, including EIGHT straight wins.

Despite some key late-season injuries in 2018, Utah finished atop the South standings (6-3) for the 1st time since entering the Pac-12 in 2011, before losing a hard-fought 10-3 defensive battle to Washington in the Pac-12 champ game. The Utes would then lose 31-20 to Northwestern in the Holiday bowl to finish 9-5. However, at the Pac-12 media gathering in July, the Utes garnered 33 of the 35 1st-place votes in the South & edged the North’s Oregon (11 votes) & Washington (nine) with 12 votes as the projected conference title game winner. BYU enters 2019 playing its 10th consecutive season as an Independent. The Cougars bounced back from an 'ugly' 4-9 finish in 2017 (school's 1st losing season since 2004) to finish 7-6 in 2018, after a 49-18 rout of Western Michigan in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.

QB Tyler Huntley and RB Zack Moss (an All-Pac 12 preseason choice) are both ready to go in 2019. They both missed LY's Pac-12 championship loss, as well as the Utes' bowl loss. Huntley is back after missing the L5 games of 2018 with a broken collarbone. When healthy, he is a dual threat at QB. As for Moss, he racked up 1,096 yards (6.1 YPC) & 11 TDs in just nine games, before a knee injury ended his season early. On the other side of the ball, Utah boasts one of the nation’s top DLs, led by Bradlee Anae, Leki Fotu and John Penisini. The talented secondary is led by preseason All-Pac 12 first-team selections Julian Blackmon and Jaylon Johnson.

Head coach Kalani Sitake enters his 4th season at BYU and the offense will be led by soph QB Zach Wilson, who started the final seven games of 2018 (note: he was a perfect 18-for-18 for 307 yards with four TDPs in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl). The team's rushing attack is a question mark, as LY's leading rusher Lopini Katoa ran for only 423 yards (5.6 YPC / 8 TDs). BYU played good defense last season, allowing a modest 21.4 PPG on 325.2 YPG and its strength this year will be a seconddary that returns CB Chris Wilcox plus safeties Dayan Ghanwoloku & Austin Lee (trio combined for 31 starts last season).

BYU blew a 27-7 lead with a minute left in the 3rd Q of LY's game, before suffering a painful 35-27 defeat in Salt Lake City. Revenge? With a visit to Tennessee up next and then back-to-back home games against USC and Washington, winning here will be even more important. That said, BYU has had played with revenge vs Utah for some time now, as Utah has won EIGHT straight in the series. Whittingham has quite a run at Utah since taking over for Urban Meyer after the 2004 season. He's led the Utes to 12 bowls the L14 years, winning 10. His teams have finished in the final AP poll FIVE times, including a No. 2 finish back in 2008, when the team capped a 13-0 season with a 31-17 Sugar Bowl win over Alabama. In 2014, 2015 & 2016, the Utes finished ranked after beginning the season unranked. This year's team may not be as special as the 2008 one (no way) but Utah is ranked 14th in the AP's preseason poll and it's well-deserved. Expect more 'pain' to come BYU's way in yet another "Holy War."

Good luck...Larry

My NFLX 10* "signature" 36-Club Play is on the Sea Seahawks at 10:00 ET.

Jon Gruden's first season back in the NFL went very poorly in 2018, as the Raiders finished 4-12 (last-place in the AFC West) and 6-10 ATS. Gruden has always had a good preseason record and he's been perfect so far in 2019, going 3-0 SU and ATS. The Raiders opened with a 14-3 home win over the disinterested Rams, then won 33-26 at Arizona in Week 2. Oakland made it THREE straight wins last Thursday with a 22-21 win over the Packers, a game played in Winnipeg, Manitoba. The contest was played on a field shortened to 80 yards for player safety. The end zones were marked by bright orange pylons at the 10-yard lines and there were no kickoffs. The field was reconfigured because of concerns about the areas where the goal posts for the CFL's Winnipeg franchise were removed and covered with turf. Before warmups, game officials and staff from both clubs examined the turf that covered the goal post spots for 110-yard CFL games. The goal posts would have been inside the NFL end zones. Packers coach Matt LaFleur decided to sit 33 players, including star QB Aaron Rodgers, yet the Raiders needed a Daniel Carlson 33-yard field goal with 8 seconds remaining to earn the one point win.

Like Gruden, Seattle's Pete Carroll has an excellent preseason record and the Seahawks are 2-1 SU and ATS in 2019, losing only at Minnesota, another outstanding preseason team under head coach Mike Zimmer. Russell Wilson directed the Seahawks to a pair of TDs and a field goal in five possessions in two preseason games and it's unlikely that he will play in Thursday's preseason finale. Geno Smith seemed well ahead of Paxton Lynch entering the first preseason contest against Denver (Aug 8) but Lynch, playing against deeper Broncos reserves, out-played Smith that night while Smith played on the cyst in his knee. He had it removed the next day. Lynch was 11 for 15 for 109 yards and a touchdown pass. Smith sat out the Minnesota loss, while Lynch was 6 for 15 against the Vikings before he had his 'bell rung.' Lynch sat out Week 3 (concussion protocol) and Smith entered on the fourth series (following Wilson's solid effort), with the score 13-3. He led the Seahawks to scores on his first two drives, the kind of performance that may go a long way toward earning him the backup spot over Lynch. Smith led the Seahawks on drives of 48, 73 and 74 yards the first three times he was in the game, completing 10 of 16 passes for 117 yards and also rushing four times for 26 yards while adding a TD.

Oakland wraps its preseason with this game in Seattle, returning from Winnipeg (won't here that again for awhile). It's hard to see Carr playing much (if at all) and that leaves Mike Glennon and Nathan Peterman. For some reason, Gruden likes Peterman but why? Consider this. Peterman is arguably the worst QB in the history of the NFL, as no QB with at least 100 pass attempts in the last 20 years has a lower career passer rating than Peterman's 32.5! Carroll rarely needs motivation in a preseason game but note that the Raiders beat the Seahawks 30-19 in Week 4 of last year's preseason (in Seattle), as E.J. Manuel, a former NFL starter, threw four TD passes (Manuel is long gone). In last year's contest, Carroll's QBs were career fourth-stringer Austin Davis and then-rookie Alex McGough (now 'stinking it up' in Jacksonville). Here, we should see plenty of a highly-motivated Geno Smith (dangerous against non-starters) plus maybe some Paxton Lynch or rookie J.T. Barrett. No 4-0 preseason here for Oakland, as Seattle wins handily

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFLX Game of the Year is on the LA Rams at 9:00 ET.

The Denver Broncos and the Los Angeles Rams get together Saturday in LA and neither team expects to play its starters very much. "Most of the guys you refer to as ‘starters’ will not play in the game (Saturday),” Denver head coach Vic Fangio said before practice on Thursday. “It’s our fourth (preseason) game, not our third, and we just felt like it’s the best thing to do for our team now.” As for LA, head coach Sean McVay has used his starters sparingly in the team's first two games and there is NO reason to expect him to do otherwise in this contest (more on that in a bit).

The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. His defenses have ranked in the league’s top-five in yards allowed in eight of the last 12 years, while placing in the NFL’s top-5 in fewest points allowed seven times over that span. We'll have to wait until the regular season to judge if he was a good hire. The Broncos have played three preseason games, starting out with a 14-10 win over the Falcons in the Hall of Fame Game (needed a TD with 1 1/2 minutes remaining to beat a team which has now lost 12 straight preseason games.) Denver followed with a 22-14 loss at Seattle, before losing this past Monday at home to the 49ers, 24-15

The Rams looked disinterested in Week 1 in a 14-3 loss at Oakland, gaining just 190 total yards with just 10 FDs. Things weren't much better in Wee2, as the Rams lost in Hawaii 14-10 against the Cowboys. LA gained 270 yards (with 14 FDs) in that one but went scoreless in the second half. McVay has treated the preseason as merely exhibition games and it's worked well. He took over a franchise in 2017 that hadn't had a winning season since 2003 and has won back-to-back NFC West titles, going 11-5 in 2017 and 13-3 last year. Some may remember, the Rams almost beat the Pats in last year's Super Bowl.

There can be little argument that McVay's reserves are better than Denver's. Flacco and Lock (team's No.2 QB) will NOT see time here, as Kevin Hogan will start, backed up by Brett Rypien. Hogan may have been 36-10 as Stanford's starting QB but he's played in just eight NFL games (one start), with four TDs and seven INTs (61.5 QB rating. Hogan is 13-of 30 (43.3%) for 104 yards (zero TDs and one INT) in the 2019 preseason. Rypien is a rookie who did throw the game-winning TD pass in the HOF game but hasn't played since. As for the Rams, Blake Bortles should see plenty of action at QB and let's not forget that he was the overall No. 3 pick in the 2014 draft by Jacksonville. He threw for 35 TDs and almost 4,500 yards in 2015 and in 2017, led the Jags to the AFC championship game at New England, where Jacksonville coughed up a 4th-quarter lead.

As noted above, this game will be decided by the reserves but Fangio has made it well-known he has little interest in doing anything but keeping his team healthy. It is hardly a good situation that this will be Denver's fourth game in FOUR different cities this preseason, plus will be back on the field again next Thursday in Denver. Sure, McVay has played it close to the vest in the preseason but his team has gone 3-1 SU in home preseason games the last two years (lone loss came by two points). NOTE: This will be LA's LONE home game of the 2019 preseason.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Battle 4 Florida is on Miami-Fl at 7:00 ET.

The Gators fell apart under Jim McElwain, going 4-7 in 2017. To the rescue came Miss St head coach Dan Mullen, who had earlier served as Urban Meyer’s O.C. for two Florida national-title teams (2006 and 2008). Tim Tebow, flourished under Mullen, as did Miss St QBs Dak Prescott and Nick Fitzgerald. The Gators became relevant again in 2018, finishing 10-4 in 2018 after its 41-15 romp over Michigan in the Peach Bowl.

Mark Richt led Miami to a 9-4 record in his first season (2016). Much was expected of the 2017 team and Miami opened 9-0, including wins over then-No. 13 Va Tech (28-10) and then-No. 3 Notre Dame (41-8), to open November. Miami reached 10-0 with a win over UVa the following week and played its final regular season game at Pittsburgh, ranked No. 2 in the nation. The 'Canes lost 24-14 and then got crushed 38-3 by Clemson in the ACC title game. That Notre Dame win was supposed to be a watershed event but it instead became the apex of the Richt era. The 'Canes lost their final three games of the 2017 season (after that 10-0 start) and then went 7-6 in 2018, going 5-12 ATS over Richt's final 17 games as Miami's head coach. Manny Diaz was Miami's DC from 2016-18 and after Richt's retirement on December 30, 2018, Diaz was hired as head coach.

The “Mullen Magic” worked a year ago for Gator QB Feleipe Franks, who had disappointed for McElvain as a freshman in 2017. He had 24 TDPs and just six INTs, after a 9-8 ratio in 2017. He developed into a real SEC signal-caller last year under Mullen. The top-seven pass catchers return from 2018 and RB Lamical Perine needs 1,189 rushing yards to become the Gators’ first 3,000-yard career rusher since Earnest Graham at the end of the Steve Spurrier era. A worry could be replacing four multi-year starters along the OL. Retaining DC Todd Grantham was good news, as in wins against Florida State and Michigan to cap the 2018 season, the D forced five TOs, recorded 10 sacks, and held the Seminoles and Wolverines to a combined 7-for-30- on third downs. Seven starters return.

No one can blame Diaz' D for LY's 'collapse. Diaz is considered the mastermind behind the "Turnover Chain," a Cuban link chain with a charm in the shape of the school's iconic "U" logo. Despite the team's 7-6 record in 2018, Miami ranked No. 2 in total defense and ranked No. 1 in several other categories. In fact, Miami led the nation in “havoc rate” (total combined tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles, divided by total plays) a year ago. Offense, or the lack thereof, is what held back the "U" a year ago. Miami ranked 105th in total offense and an embarrassing 113th in passing, as neither senior Malik Rosier nor red-shirt freshman N’Kosi Perry provided anything remotely like consistency at the QB spot. In fact, the most important Diaz hire might be new OC Dan Enos, a former Michigan State QB and onetime HC at Central Michigan, who was most recently the QB coach for Nick Saban’s Alabama staff. It turns out that Jarren Williams, who was highly recruited but couldn’t get in a game last year (he did get in one, playing garbage time against cupcake Savannah State, going 1 for 3 for 17 yards), has beaten out Perry and highly-touted Ohio St transfer, Tate Martell.

Diaz has made a bold choice and Williams gets tested right away vs Florida in Orlando (Gators are ranked No. 8 in the preseason coaches' poll). Not many expected Florida to return to the top-10 as quickly as it did a year ago and I'm one who believes the Gators are rated too high this early. These two rivals used to play annually but haven’t faced off since 2013 (Miami won 21-16) and not in an opener since 1987, when the 'Canes won 31-4. I guess Orlando is "closer to home" for Florida than it is for Miami but I want the points with the MUCH better defensive team.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* NFLX Las Vegas Insider is on the Mia Dolphins at 8:00 ET.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have opened NFLX 2019 at 0-2, getting shut out 29-0 at Baltimore in Week 1 and then losing 24-10 at home 24-10 in Week 2 to the Eagles. The Jags have started so poorly at least in part (maybe largely?) due to the fact that head coach Doug Marrone has decided to sit his starters as much as he can this preseason in the hopes his crew will be fresher on Opening Day. In the team's home loss to the Philadelphia, Marrone sat 31 players , including QB Nick Foles. Foles has yet to play this season but he is expected to make his Jaguars debut here. However, for how long?

The Dolphins are SIX seconds from opening 2-0, as the Bucs edged Miami 16-14 last Friday night in Tampa, by kicking the game-winning FG with six seconds left on the clock (Bucs won, 16-14). The Dolphins beat the Falcons 34-27 in Week 1 (who doesn't beat Atlanta in the preseason, these days?). Rookie head coach Brian Flores has named Ryan Fitzpatrick as the Dolphins starter for this Week 3 game and that generally means Fitzpatrick will start the team's season opener against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, September 8. However, backup (?) Josh Rosen has stated that he just wants to improve and is not focused on the QB battle. “I’m not focusing on the competition at all,” Rosen said after practice Tuesday. “I obviously care about playing and all this, but in terms of where I stand, I really couldn’t care less about the whole competition. I’m really just trying to be the best that I can be. Fitz is trying to be the best that he can be. We’re trying to help each other. A rising tide raises all ships. Either one of us that proves worthy to rise the tide the most, I guess, will be the guy. But it’s about becoming the best quarterback that you can be. It’s not about just kind of one-upping the guy next to you because that sort of defeats the purpose of being a teammate in the first place.”

I believe this sets up an excellent situation here for Miami, as both QBs will be looking to shine. Sure, Foles will see some action for the Jags but why risk him too much? After all, Marrone has seen that neither Minshew nor McCough have shown that they are anywhere near "ready for primetime" the first two weeks. The duo has combined for 63 pass attempts (each has been sacked four times), without a TD pass. Overall, the Jags offense has converted just EIGHT of 28 third-down attempts (28.6%). Miami wins this one going away.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Cin Bengals at 7:00 ET.

The New York Giants will play their first road game of the preseason on Thursday when they head to Cincinnati to take on the 1-1 Bengals. The Giants have been a big surprise, scoring 31 points in a nine-point win over the Jets on Aug 8 and then beat the Bears 32-13 last Friday. Eli Manning went 4-of-4 against the Bears for 42 yards and a TD, prized-rookie Daniel Jones has looked comfortable through two preseason games. He went 5-of-5 in Week 1 with a TD and the 11-of-14 for 161 yards in Week 2 and another TD. Is there a QB controversy? Reports say that Eli Manning will be the starting QB in Week 1 of action. With that said, expect Jones to get even more snaps and reps with the first unit this week.

The Chiefs overwhelmed the Bengals at KC in Week 1, winning 38-17. However, Cincy rebounded in Week 2, winning 23-13 at Washington last Thursday. No. 1 QB Andy Dalton has thrown exactly nine passes in each of the first two games, completing 14 or 77.8%. However, he does not have a TD pass and has one INT. Rookie QB Ryan Finley was terrific in the win at Washington, completing 20-of-26 for 150 yards with two TDs and zero INTs. Dalton should see a little more time here in this Week 3 (dress rehearsal) contest but expect Finley to keep getting significant work.

The Giants have overachieved so far the first two weeks and away from home, expect a drop-off. OBJ is in Cleveland plus the team has all sorts of 'holes' in its receiving corps. WRs Corey Coleman is out of the season with a torn ACL, Sterling Shepard will not be playing in the preseason contests after suffering a broken thumb in last Thursday’s drills and Golden Tate is on suspension in four regular season games for taking banned substances that enhance playing performance.

This marks Cincy's first home game of the preseason and marks the home debut of rookie head coach Zac Taylor. Note that Finley played at NC State and had just as good a year (arguably slightly better) than Daniel Jones had at Duke. Jones was the sixth overall pick by the Giants, while Finley went in the fourth round (104th overall). Will (can) Finley make a point, here? More importantly, expect a let down for the Giants after scoring 63 points in their first two games, while the Bengals win Taylor's home debut.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFLX Monday Night Game of the Year is on the Den Broncos at 8:00 ET.

The 49ers had some high hopes for 2018 after finishing hot the previous season, but the team was riddled with injuries to key players, most notably QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Garoppolo is expected to be available by the start of the regular season and as I noted in taking the 49ers (over the Cowboys) in NFLX Week 1, San Francisco should have one of the better backup QB battles in the league. C.J. Beathard (10 starts) and Nick Mullens (eight starts) have both "had their moments" in regular season action. Beathard was 13 of 17 for 141 yards and Mullens 11 of 17 for 105 vs Dallas, (each had a TDP and an INT). The 48ers' D held Dallas scoreless in the second half and the 49ers won 17-9.

The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. His defenses have ranked in the league’s top-five in yards allowed in eight of the last 12 years, while placing in the NFL’s top-5 in fewest points allowed seven times over that span

The Broncos eked out a 14-10 HOF game win over the Falcons but as all know, EVERYONE beats Atlanta in the preseason recently (Falcons are 0-11 since 2017). The Broncos then lost 22-14 in Week 1 at Seattle but as most know as well, Pete Carroll is one of the NFL's best preseason coaches. Joe Flacco will be Denver's starting QB come the regular season but he won't see much time this preseason but I would expect him to see some action in Denver's 'home opener,' which is also Fangio's first home game. Drew Lock completed 17 of 28 for 180 yards (TD and INT) last week and is playing a lot in these preseason games, getting familiar with the offense and what is expected of him.

San Francisco's Kyle Shanahan has now won each of his first three NFLX Week 1 games as the Niners' head coach but note the last two preseasons, he's 1-5 SU the other six. He almost HAS to win to cover in this contest and I believe the motivation all sides with the home team in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFLX Game of the Week is on the TB Bucs at 7:30 ET.

Miami’s rookie head coach Brian Flores picked up a "W" in his debut, as the Dolphins edged the Atlanta Falcons 34-27 last Thursday. It's great to get a win but the Dolphins were fortunate. The Falcons have now lost 10 straight preseason games and it's easy to see why. Atlanta was The Falcons were flagged for 12 penalties (97 yards) and with the game tied at 27-all at the two-minute warning, Atlanta turned it over on downs by failing on fourth-and-nine from its own 16-yard-line! How about that for game-management! Two plays later, Miami scored the winning TD!

Bruce Arians is not new to coaching, as his regular season record is 58–33–1 (.636) and he's earned Coach-of-the-Year honors twice, in 2012 (Indy) and 2014 (Arizona). However, he is new at Tampa. His Bucs’ offense gained 479 yards and gained 31 FDs at Pittsburgh last week but came up on the short end of a 30-28 final (TB went for two after each of its final two TDs, failing both times).

Ryan Fitzgerald had some good games for the Bucs last season and is now expected to be Miami's starting QB (note: he had better skill players to work with at Tampa Bay). Josh Rosen is also looking to win the starting QB job and got plenty of work vs the Falcons. However, he was under pressure regularly by an opponent (Atlanta) that excels in losing preseason games (now 10 straight for the Falcons). In the end, Rosen looked like no more than an average NFL quarterback.

Bruce Arians is loaded with energy and his early press conferences strongly indicate he intends to be aggressive and wants to get a winning attitude established. The Bucs have gone 5-11 in consecutive seasons and Jameis Winston has won only 21 of 56 career starts as he enters the final year of his rookie contract. Winston finished 5 of 6 for 40 yards with a 9-yard touchdown pass to Chris Godwin in his lone series of action vs Pittsburgh. The Bucs faced third down just once during his 12-play, 81-yard drive. "It was a perfect drive," Arians said. "We ran the ball well, and that sets up a lot of stuff for us. I thought Jameis took what was there." I expect to see Winston a little more here and note that the Bucs have beaten the Dolphins in FOUR of the teams' five preseason meetings going back to 2011. Great spot for the home team here vs its in-state rival.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Run-Line Game of the Month (NL) is on the LA Dodgers at 4:10 ET.

The Los Angeles Dodgers own a National League-best 78-41 record (the Houston's .658 win percentage barely tops LA's .655) and their 47-16 home record (outscoring opponents 5.30-to-3.16 RPG) is tops in the majors (18-game margin over the Diamondbacks in the NL West is MLB's largest division lead). The Dodgers complete a 10-game homestand (7-2 so far) by hosting Arizona on Sunday in the rubber match of their three-game series. The D'backs won 3-2 (11 inn.) on Friday, a game which featured a brief benches-clearing confrontation. The Dodgers recorded their 13th shutout with a 4-0 victory on Saturday and there was no hangover from that bench-clearing brawl.

Mike Leake (9-8, 4.24 ERA) will make his second start in a Diamondbacks uniform, opposed by Hyun-Jin Ryu (11-2, 1.53 ERA), who returns from the injured list (neck). Leake was the eighth pick of the 2009 draft and made his Diamondbacks' debut on Tuesday night, after being acquired from the Seattle Mariners at the trade deadline. It was his first start since July 30 and he did not factor in the decision after allowing three runs - two earned - and 11 hits in 5.1 innings of Arizona's 8-4 victory over Philadelphia. Leake is 5-6 with a 4.02 ERA in 12 career games (11 starts) against the Dodgers but hasn't faced them since 2017.

Ryu settled for a no-decision despite scattering three hits over six scoreless innings in LA's 5-1 victory at Colorado back on July 31, before going on the IL. The 32-year-old South Korean is the current favorite to win the NL Cy Young Award and here's why. Except for him allowing seven ERs over just four innings back on June 28 (13-9 LA loss), the lefty has allowed two ERs or less in each one of his other 20 starts of 2019! He's 8-0 in 10 home starts (Dodgers are 10-0), posting an 0.89 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and a .187 BAA.

Leake has now joined his FIFTH team, after going 102-95 with a 4.04 ERA in 291 games (286 starts) with Cincinnati, San Francisco, St Louis and Seattle. He is no more than a journeyman and I expect the D'backs to fade away over the next few weeks, as they currently sit 2 1/2 games out of a wild-card spot but have FOUR teams between them and the postseason berth. As for LA and Ryu, expect no "fading away!" Lay the 1 1/2 runs!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Week is on the SF 49ers at 9:00 ET.

The Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers meet Saturday at Levi's Stadium in the final game of NFLX Week 1 action. Jason Garrett took over as the Cowboys' head coach during the 2011 season,. He went 8-8 in each of the next three years but Dallas has won the NFC East three times over the last five seasons. However, Dallas has yet to advance past the Divisional Round in the postseason. Is this finally going to be a make-or-break season for him? Jim Harbaugh took over at San Francisco in 2011, with the 49ers having suffered EIGHT consecutive non-winning seasons. He led the 49ers to a 36-11-1 record the next three seasons, losing twice in the NFC championship game and once in the Super Bowl. However, after an 8-8 season in 2014, Harbaugh and the 49ers mutually agreed to part ways. The 49ers have followed with records of 5-11, 2-14, 6-10 and 4-12, the last two under current head coach Kyle Shanahan.

There is no doubt that Garrett is under a ton of pressure to win in 2019 but this is the preseason. Dallas was 0-4 in last year's preseason and under Garrett, the Cowboys are just 13-20 SU and 11-22 ATS in the exhibition season. Prescott won't see much if any time in this one and the team's backup QB battle between Cooper Rush and Mike White features players without a single NFL start, with neither having played well in limited opportunities. Jimmy Garoppolo is expected to be ready by the start of the regular season but unlike Dallas, San Francisco should have one of the better backup QB battles in the league. C.J. Beathard (10 starts) and Nick Mullens (eight starts) have both "had their moments" in regular season action. Don't be surprised if either (both?) carve up the second and third-unit defenses of the Cowboys.

The 49ers are 2-0 in Week 1 preseason games Shanahan, scoring 27 and 24 points in those games (better than most!).

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Bal Ravens at 7:30 ET.

The Jacksonville Jaguars and Baltimore Ravens meet Thursday at M&T Bank Stadium. The Jags are "all in" with Nick Foles at QB but he is hardly expected to see any real action in this road game (note: Jags host the Eagles, Foles' former team, next Thursday). As for the Ravens, they've officially entered "the Lamar Jackson era." That said, like Foles, Jackson won't be around for long on Thursday night.

We know that second and third-stringers typically determine Week 1 winners (SU & ATS) but what I can't ignore is that John Harbaugh leads his team into the 2019 preseason on a 13-game winning streak, going 11-2 ATS (that's an 85% winning situation). Sure, the Ravens will eventually lose a preseason game but isn't that a reasonable person would have said entering 2018, but Baltimore then went 5-0, which began with a HOF game win.

Why "step in front of the Ravens' winning streak" with a Jacksonville team which will feature QBs Tanner Lee, Alex McGough and Gardner Minshew. That trio has combined for ZERO pass attempts in an NFL game!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Run-Line Game of the Month (AL) is on the Tex Rangers at 8:05 ET.

Texas made back-to-back World Series appearances in 2010 and 2011 (lost both) to begin a seven-year stretch in which the Rangers made the playoffs in FIVE of seven seasons. However, Texas would go 78-84 in 2017 and then 67-95 in 2018. However, a six-game winning streak from June 22-28 gave Texas a 46-36 record, which had the team thinking "wild card." The Rangers cooled somewhat into the All Star break but returned to beat the Astros in their first two games post-break, giving them a 50-42 mark. The Rangers were "right in the wild card hunt" at that time but open a weekend three-game series with the Tigers having lost 12 of 16, falling 7 1/2 games out of the AL's second wild card spot. The Tigers are 4-15 since the break and have caught and passed the Orioles for the title of MLB's "worst team." Detroit owns an unwanted 'daily double,' featuring MLB's worst record (32-72), as well as its worst moneyline mark (minus-$2,687).

Rookie Tyler Alexander (0-1, 3.86 ERA) takes the mound for Detroit, opposed by Texas veteran Lance Lynn (13-6, 3.83 ERA). Alexander is looking for his first major league win in his fourth start. Expecting for it to come here is unliklely, as in two road starts, he owns a 5.79 ERA and 1.50 WHIP (Tigers are 0-2). Lynn won 71 games for the Cards in a five-year span from 2012-17 (he missed the 2016 season) but his 2018 season, split between the Twins and Yanks, was a flop (10-10, 4.77 ERA). However, he's "settled in" with Texas, having allowed three ERs or less in 16 of his 22 starts this season. He broke out of a two-start slump at Oakland last Friday, when he held the A's to two runs (one earned) on four hits while striking out eight over six innings of a 5-2 win..

Detroit ranks last in scoring (3.58 RPG) and team BA (.231) plus second-to-last in OPS (.671) and HRs (98). Texas averages 5.63 RPG at home and the Rangers are 9-2 in Lynn's home starts in 2019. This 'W" comes "with room to spare." Lay the 1 1/2 runs.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Run-Line Rout is on the TB Rays at 1:10 ET.

The Tampa Bay Rays entered Friday night's home game with the LA Angels on a three-game losing streak and found themselves down 4-0 heading into the bottom of the sixth. However, the Rays scored NINE runs in the sixth and seventh innings, en route to a 9-4 win while going 8-for-16 with RISP. The victory, coupled with the Yankees' 10-2 loss at the White Sox, moved Tampa Bay a half-game ahead of New York in the AL East race. The Angels saw their three-game winning streak come to an end, despite Shohei Ohtani following up his cycle on Thursday with a hit and an RBI in his first two at-bats in Friday’s setback.Los Angeles is 34-36, leaving them 13 games back of Houston in the AL West. The Angels are all but eliminated in their division, so the rest of the season they will be playing for one of the AL's two wild card spots (good luck!)

The teams meet for the third contest of this four-game set on Saturday afternoon, as rookie left-hander Jose Suarez (1-1, 4.35 ERA) takes on the veteran Charlie Morton (8-0, 2.10 ERA). Suarez has split his first two major-league starts. He was 2-0 with a 3.91 ERA in five games (four starts) with Triple-A Salt Lake before being promoted to make his first ML start on June 2 at Seattle. Suarez allowed three runs on five hits over 5.2 innings in a 13-3 triumph in that one, before suffering a loss in his second major-league start this past Sunday when he allowed two runs on four hits with six strikeouts and two walks over 4.2 innings at home against the Mariners, again (Seattle won 9-3).

Morton spent his first nine years in the National League and sported a 46-71 record. However, he arrived in Tampa Bay this spring (as a free agent), after registering his best two seasons in the majors with Houston, going 29-10 with a 3.36 ERA in 55 starts. He won a World Series title with the Houston Astros in 2017 and made his first All-Star team in 2018. Speaking of the All Star game, Morton is making a case to start this year's game next month. He's won his last FOUR outings and hasn't lost in 14 starts in 2019 (he's 8-0 / team is 10-4). In fact, he has won 11 straight decisions dating back to last season. He takes the mound this afternoon, having pitched 14 scoreless innings in two June starts, posting a 15-2 KW ratio.

Let's start with Suarez. He's clearly an "unknown commodity," after just two starts, with both coming against the AL West's worst team (Seattle is 30-43). He takes the mound here vs the Rays, who at 42-27 are one of four AL teams playing better than .600 baseball. As for Morton, I noted that he's pitched 14 scoreless innings in his two June starts and will add here that he's won FOUR straight starts, posting a 1.00 ERA and a .151 BAA in that span. Morton hasn't lost in 21 starts dating to a 3-2 defeat against the Seattle Mariners on Aug 11, when he was still with the Houston Astros. It's the longest unbeaten streak in the majors. Here in 2019, I noted that the Rays were 10-4 in is starts and will add that just ONE of the 10 wins have come by one run, with the Rays winning those 10 games by an averaged margin of 4.1 RPG. It also doesn't hurt that Morton's faced the Angels seven times in his career, with his teams winning SIX times! Lay the 1 1/2 runs.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the GS Warriors at 9:07 ET.

The Raptors were minutes away from securing Canada's first-ever NBA title Monday in Game 5 but three PERFECT three-pointers (talk about "nothing but net!"), two from Klay Thompson and one by Steph Curry, provided Golden St with a 9-2 finishing run to give the Warriors a 106-105 victory. It marked the first one-point Finals margin since 2007 and the Warriors became just the SIXTH team in NBA history to win an elimination game on the road. It's now Game 6 in Oakland but the Warriors still face this daunting NBA 'footnote.' Of the 34 teams that have led a Finals 3-1 like Toronto, 33 have gone on to win the championship. The only exception being the Warriors in 2016, when the Cavaliers rallied (with help of Draymond Green) to win in seven games.

Kawhi Leonard scored 26 points in Game 5, including 10 straight in the late fourth quarter, allowing Toronto to open a 103-97 lead, that the Raptors couldn't hold. However, he did shoot only 9-of-24 from the floor, including 2 of 7 on threes. Starting guards Lowry and Green combined to shoot 1 of 10 from three-point range. KD returned in Game 5 for Golden St and made all three 3-point attempts, scoring 11 points in 12 minutes of play. However, he ruptured his Achilles tendon. Curry scored 31 and Thompson 26 for the Warriors plus center DeMarcus Cousins was a HUGE factor. He was going to receive diminished minutes in Game 5 but Durant's injury led to more court time and he turned out to be a key contributor, scoring 14 points and grabbing six rebounds in 20 minutes.

The home team is just 1-4 SU & ATS in the Finals but i just CAN'T pass up the team which has won THREE of the last four NBA titles in the its FINAL game at Oracle Arena (Warriors will move to the Chase Center in San Francisco next season). The game may come down to this simple stat. The team which shoots better from three-point range will win. The Raptors have outscored the Warriors 120-96 from beyond the arc in their three wins, while Warriors own a 99-57 advantage in points from 'long-range' in their two victories. With or without KD, I never thought we'd see the Warriors this small of a favorite in a home playoff game, no less a "must-win" one in the franchise's final home game on this court. See you Sunday in Toronto!

Good luck...Larry

My NBA 10* Game of the Week is on the GS Warriors at 9:07 ET.

KD remained out in Game 3 for the Warriors and Klay Thompson joined him. Throw in the loss of backup center Kevon Looney and the defending champs suffered a 123-109 home loss to the Raptors. Kawhi led Toronto with 30 points and the remaining four starters all scored between 17 and 23 points, After combing for just 21 points in a Game 2 loss, Toronto guards Lowry and Green totaled 41 points, while nailing 11, three-pointers. PF Siakam and center Gasol added 35 points and 16 rebounds, after combining for 18 & 14 in that Game 2 loss. Steph Curry score a career playoff-high 47 points but while the Raptors shot 52.5 as a team, the Warriors connected on 39.6%. That's a recipe for losing by 14 points. Klay Thompson will return to the lineup for Golden State but Kevin Durant will again be sidelined

Kawhi Leonard scored 30 points in the Game 3 win, his 13th 30-point outing of the postseason. Only SIX others in NBA history, Michael Jordan (four times), Kobe Bryant (two times), LeBron James (two times), Hakeem Olajuwon, Shaquille O'Neal and Allen Iverson, have had 13 or more 30-point games in a single postseason. Leonard carrying a Toronto franchise that now stands just TWO wins away from its first NBA title. History is on Toronto's side, as the winner of Game 3 in a 1-1 Finals has gone on to claim the championship on 31 of 38 occasions!

Thompson wanted to play in Game 3 before reluctantly agreeing with the training staff's view that it was too risky in terms that a re-injury might sideline him for the rest of the series. Curry was a one-man show in Game 3, as he poured in 47 points for his sixth career playoff 40-point outing, as well as contributing eight rebounds and seven assists. With Thompson back, expect the trio of Curry, Thompson and Green to be at its best in this almost "must-win" situation.

The Warriors are best-known for their offense but Golden St has played great defense for good parts of the team's run of three titles in the last four seasons. Toronto shot 50.6 percent in Game 1 and 52.4 percent in Game 3 but the Raptors were held to just 37.2 percent from the floor (including 28.9 percent on three-pointers), while putting up just 104 points in their Game 2 loss. That's the 'ticket' for Golden St in Game 4 and my 'bet.'. We are headed back to Toronto tied at 2-all, as the Warriors win "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Month is on the GS Warriors at 9:00 ET.

The NBA Finals open Thursday and naturally, no one is surprised the Warriors are playing for their THIRD straight championship and FOURTH in five year. However,  the Toronto Raptors will take the court tonight to play a game in the NBA Finals for the first time in franchise history. The Warriors will open the series without Kevin Durant, who has been ruled out of Game 1 with a calf injury. Center DeMarcus Cousins (quadriceps) could play in the opening contest. "His next step is individual court work," Golden State coach Steve Kerr said of Durant at Wednesday's media availability. "That will be the next priority. Over the next couple of days, hopefully, he can ramp up. We have to see him practice before he can play a game. He hasn't practiced yet." The Raptors have ridden Kawhi Leonard (31.2 & 8.8) to the Finals and Toronto has homecourt advantage in the series due to a better regular-season record than Golden State. The Raptors won both regular-season meetings, 131-128 in overtime at Toronto on Nov 29 and 113-93 on Dec 12 in Oakland.

Cousins suffered his injury on April 15 in Game 2 of the first-round series against the LA Clippers and he said Wednesday that he is ready to return. "I feel good," Cousins said. "My quad is coming along. It's healed for the most part."The bottom line is, do the Warriors even need Cousins (or Durant, for that matter)? Since KD went down in game 5 of the Houston series, Curry has been nearly unstoppable. He's averaged 35.8 PPG in the Warriors' last five games, never scoring less than 33 points or more than 37, in any game (talk about consistency). He capped that five-game run with a triple-double (37-13-11) in Golden St's Game 4 win over Portland (capping a 4-0 sweep). Draymond Green joined Curry in that contest with his own triple-double (18-14-11), marking the first time in NBA history that two teammates each delivered a triple-double in the same game. Green been a 'beats' since Game 6 of the LAC series, averaging 14.6-11.4-8.5 over an 11-game span, with eight double-doubles (including four triple-doubles). Throw in Klay Thompson (22.6 PPG since KD's been out) and the Warriors are just fine with or without KD or surely, Cousins.

Leonard's performance in the 2019 playoffs has again having him being discussed as perhaps the best player in the NBA. That said, only Siakam (18.7 & 9.0) and Lowry (14.2-5.2-6.4) join him in double digits plus neither player as participated in an NBA Final. VanVleet comes in averaging 16.0 PPG over his last three games, connecting on 68% of his shots. Pause for a moment and note that even with this three-game outburst, VanVleet is averaging only 6.0 PPG on 35.9% shooting in Toronto's 18 playoff games.

Yes, Leonard has led Toronto to where it has "never gone to before" but I won't overlook the team's 3-15 record in playoff openers (1-2 this postseason), especially against the champion Warriors. The Raptors have faced a series deficit in each round of the playoffs so far this year, so what changes here?

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Week is on the Mil Bucks at 8:30 ET.

Toronto had a great chance to win Game 1 of this series but the Bucks outscored the Raptors 32-17 in the 4th quarter, ending the game on a 10-run for a 108-100 victory. Milwaukee then routed Toronto in Game 2, 125-103 to take a 2-0 lead in the series. At the point, the Bucks were 10-1 SU & ATS in the 2019 playoffs. Oh, how things have changed since then! The Raptors have won the past THREE contests, including a 105-99 road win on Thursday that enabled them to take a 3-2 series lead. Kawhi Leonard scored 35 points in Game 5 (his fourth 30-point outing of the series) and has provided Toronto with the big-time performances the club was looking for when it acquired him from the San Antonio Spurs.The Bucks were up by 14 points early in Game 5 but entered the 4th quarter leading by just three. Toronto opened an eight point lead in that final period but Milwaukee tied it at 93-all with 2:44 left. However, it was Toronto which made the plays down the stretch.

Milwaukee won a league-best 60 games in the regular season and Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo (25.9-12.3-4.9 this postseason) was adamant that his team will still win the series. "We're not going to fold," Antetokounmpo said afterward. "Come on, man. Best team in the league, man. We're not going to fold. We're going to go in and give it everything we've got. We can't fold. We're going to come back to Milwaukee." Malcolm Brogdon made his first start of the postseason in Game 5 and had 18 points, 11 rebounds and six assists. PG Eric Bledsoe scored a series-best 20 but neither effort was good enough.

"I'm not afraid of the moment," Leonard told reporters afterward. "This is what I work out for in the summer. I'm just trying to win. It's a matter of me being aggressive and don't shy away from anything." Leonard carried Toronto in teh Game 5 win, as Toronto's other four starters shot a combined 10 of 35 from the floor (28.6%). However, backup PG Fred VanVleet scored 21 points on seven 3-pointers in the Game 5 victory and is 10-for-12 from long range over the last two games, after being 2-for-11 over the first three games

Milwaukee not only owned the NBA's best regular season record (60-22) but it also owned its best ATS mark, as well (47-34-1). That's a rare 'daily double. Expect  Antetokounmpo to play 'HUGE,' Middleton to NOT go 2-of- 9 again plus I love the fact that Milwaukee's starting guards (see above) combined for 38 points. Can Kawhi really do it 'alone?' I'm with Giannis, this series is headed back to Milwaukee for a Game 7.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game 5 Tie-Breaker is on the Mil Bucks at 8:30 ET.

Kawhi Leonard (31.8 PPG & 8.5 RPG) had carried Toronto's offense through the team's first two playoff series, as PF Pascal Siakam (20.8 & 7.3) and PG Kyle Lowry (12.4-5.0-7.1) were the only other Raptors averaging in double digits in the first two rounds. As for Milwaukee's Giannis Antetokounmpo, he led Milwaukee to an 8-1 SU & ATS start to the postseason, averaging 27.4 points and 11.3 rebounds. However, I predicted this series was NOT just Kawhi vs Giannis. Antetokounmpo's supporting class had been strong. SF Khris Middleton (19.1-6.0-4.6) plus PGs Eric Bledsoe (16.0-3.3-4.3) and George Hill (12.1) looked "ready for primetime." What's more, combo guard Malcolm Brogdon (15.6-4.5-3.2 during the regular season), looked ready-to-go for this series, after scoring 10 points in 17 minutes in the clinching win over Boston, after missing the previous seven-plus weeks with a foot injury. More notably, Milwaukee's bench was averaging 37.4 points on 48.1 percent shooting, while Toronto's was averaging 21.6 points on 38.9 percent shooting.

Milwaukee was "off' in Game 1 but outscored the Raptors 32-17 in the 4th quarter, ending the game on a 10-0 run to win AND cover, 108-100. In Game 2, it was all Milwaukee, as the Bucks won 125-103. The series shifted to Toronto for Game 3 and despite Giannis and Middleton combining for just 21 points (on 8 of 32 shooting), the Bucks had chances to win, before falling in OT. Leonard was the star  (36 points) for Toronto and Siakam added 25 & 11. The Bucks then followed with their worst game of the series in Game 4. The team's 2-0 lead has evaporated, after Toronto's 120-102 victory on Tuesday. Leonard, who had topped 30 points in each of the first three games of the series, had just 19 in Game 4 while often appearing to be hindered by a left leg injury. PG Kyle Lowry scored 25 points plus three bench players excelled. SF Powell had 19, PF Ibaka had 17 & 13 (his best game of the series) and PG Van Vleet had 13.

The series is now tied at two-all, with tonight's Game 5 looming large.I don'r remotely trust the Raptors on the road. Yes, they were 2-0 in Orlando but is that a big deal? In five road games since (against Philly and Milwaukee), Toronto is 1-4 SU and ATS, with those four losses coming by an average of 15.5 PPG. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is 6-1 SU & ATS at home during the playoffs, upping the team's home record this season to 39-9 SU, while averaging a whopping 119.1 points. Milwaukee's bench will bounce back (don't expect Toronto's reserves to come anywhere close to performing like they did in Game 4) and expect Giannis to be brilliant. Lay it!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Por Blazers at 9:05 ET.

The Warriors coasted to a 116-94 win in Game 1 but had to overcome a 17-point deficit in Game 2, before escaping with a 114-111 victory. "We stole that game," Golden State head coach Steve Kerr told reporters. Golden St was down 15 at the half in Game 2 but a 39-24 third quarter put them back in position to win it in the 4th. Fast-forward to Game 3 in Portland. The Blazers opened a 66-53 halftime lead but once again, the Warriors dominated in the third quarter, outscoring the Blazers 29-13, before pulling away in fourth en route to a 110-99 triumph.The Blazers WILL NOT come back and win four in a row but the question here is, can they win this Game 4?

Draymond Green scored a postseason-high 20 points to go with 13 rebounds and 12 assists on Saturday (his third triple-double of the playoffs), setting the tone for a Warriors team that fell into an 18-point hole in the first half and was down 14 with 8:08 left in the third quarter. His ability to push the tempo and get the rest of his teammates to feed off his energy propelled the Warriors to a victory. That said, let's NOT forget Curry, who scored a team high 36 points, his fourth straight 30-plus effort since K.D. was lost to a calf injury.

Portland didn't just fold in the third quarter, as they totaled just 33 points in the entire second half, after putting up 63 points in the first half. "Our offense fell apart," Portland coach Terry Stotts told reporters. "We missed some shots. Took some tough shots. Didn't move the ball as well. They were scoring, so we were taking it out of the net. Didn't get any transition. So, I said at the beginning of the series, to beat Golden State, you've got to be able to score. Scoring 33 in the second half is not going to do it." Damian Lillard has yet to get rolling offensively in the series (he's shooting 32.6 percent from the floor and has committed 14 turnovers in the first three games, plus he and McCollum have been totally outplayed by Curry and Thompson. in the series.

Is this "All she wrote?" The Warriors are just one win shy of earning their FIFTH straight NBA Finals appearance, something that hasn't been done since the 1960s Boston Celtics. As to the team's back-to-back wins in Games 2 and 3, the Warriors have become the first team in NBA history to rally from at least a 13-point deficit in consecutive playoff wins. However, SF Andre Iguodala (lower leg) left Saturday's game and is the Warriors don't expect him to play here. As for K.D, word is he only plays if the Warriors are forced to a Game 7 (fat chance that happens). That said, I am not tasked to "look ahead," just focus on the here and now.

Portland has shown it can play with Golden State in Games 2 and 3 but the team has NOT been able to "close he show." I've had the Blazers in Games 2 and 3 and will "go to the well" with them again, here. Portland lost its first home game after the calendar turned to 2019 (Jan 4  to OKC) but then ended the regular season on an 18-2 SU run at home. The Blazers are 5-2 at home in the postseason, so that means they are on a 23-4 SU run on their home floor. Portland closed a three-point favorite in Game 3 but there has been a line 'swing' of right about a 'TD!". I'm 'barking' with the home dog!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Tor Raptors at 7:05 ET.

The Bucks needed a 32-17 fourth quarter to win and cover Game 1 against the Raptors, including ending the game on a 10-0 run. I had the Bucks in that one and came right back with them in Game 2, saying  that it was my belief that Game 1 was a HUGE "opportunity lost" for Toronto. Milwaukee was an incredible 9-1 SU & ATS this postseason at that point and after its Game 1 win, checked in at 38-9 SU at home, averaging 119.0 PPG. I said "lay the points," again. The Bucks had their way with the Raptors in Game 2, jumping out to a 35-21 first quarter lead and a 64-39 advantage at the half. After trailing by as many as 28 points, Toronto made a push to draw to within 13 in the third quarter but the final was 125-103.

Antetokounmpo finished with 30 points and 17 rebounds but Ersan Ilyasova (17 points), Malcolm Brogdon (14) and George Hill (13) combined to go 17-of-29 from the floor off the bench in Game 2, with each of the three logging more than 20 minutes. "We have a great group of coaches who trust us, and I think it's all about chemistry," Ilyasova told reporters. "When we go to locker room, even when we lose the game, everybody stays positive. It's just we're all about the next game. I think for us it's big time when we go to the playoffs."

Kawhi Leonard scored 31 points in each of the first two games but in Game 2, Toronto's other four starters combined for just 33 points. Center Marc Gasol struggled to two points on 1-of-9 shooting in Game 2 and placed the blame for the loss on himself. However, he was hardly alone. All-Star PG Kyle Lowry, who scored 30 points on 10-of-15 shooting in Game 1, slumped to 15 points on 4-of-13 in Game 2.

"The ball," as they say, is Toronto's court. The Raptors were 32-9 during the regular season at home and have gone 5-2 in the playoffs. Toronto has been best-known for its underachieving postseason but the difference in this year's team is, Kawhi Leonard. He's averaging 31.7 PPG (on 52.7% shooting) and 8.5 RPG in the postseason. It's up to him to 'carry' the Raptors to a win. That's my bet!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Week is on the Por Blazers at 9:05 ET.

The Golden State Warriors have gone up 2-0 in their series with the Blazers, despite the absence of K.D. (Durant was averaging a NBA postseason-high of 34.2 PPG). The Warriors coasted to a 116-94 win in Game 1 but had to overcome a 17-point deficit in Game 2, before escaping with a 114-111 victory. "We stole that game," Golden State head coach Steve Kerr told reporters. "I thought they outplayed us for much of the night, the majority of the night, but we brought enough competitive fire in the second half to overcome their great play. We've been here before. I think our experience helped us. We've done this a few times, and yeah, we stole it for sure. They outplayed us." As for Portland, the Blazers head home with some confidence due to the way they played for most of Game 2. "You know, you hate to lose a game, but I think we showed that we can compete with them," Portland head coach Terry Stotts told reporters. "It was a much better game than we played in Game 1. Now we've got to go get two at home, but it starts with Game 3. But yeah, we beat them in the regular season, and we did play a good game, much better game at both ends of the floor tonight. So, we've got to take that into Game 3."

This series was billed as a battle between the NBA's two-best backcourt duos. After two games, Curry and Thompson have 'KO'd' Lillard and McCollum. The Warriors' dynamic duo has combined to average 56.5 PPG, while the Blazers' twosome is averaging just 40.5 PPG. Curry has averaged 35.3 PPG in the three games KD has missed, with Thompson chipping in 25.7. Since Game 6 of the LAC series, Draymond Green is averaging 13.7-10.7-7.9. Maybe the Warriors can "win it all," without KD?

Lillard came into the series averaging 28.4 PPG in the 2019 playoffs and McCollum came in averaging 26.6. A return home HAS to help. Here's the bottom line. Portland lost its first home game after the calendar turned to 2019 (Jan 4  to OKC) but then ended the regular season on an 18-2 SU run at home. The Blazers are 5-1 at home in the postseason, so that means they are on a 23-3 SU run on their home floor. "Home is where the heart is" (right?) and expect Lillard and McCollum to respond plus don't ignore the fact that Seth Curry matched his postseason high with 16 points off the bench in Game 2 and that Rodney Hood is averaging 14.5 points off the bench in the series. If not NOW, WHEN for Portland?

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Mil Bucks at 8:30 ET.

The Eastern Conference finals features the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks and the second-seeded Toronto Raptors. Leading MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo entered the series averaging 27.4 points and 11.3 rebounds, as the Bucks went 8-1 SU and ATS against the Detroit Pistons and Boston Celtics, outscoring those opponents by an average of 15.3 PPG. Meanwhile, Kawhi Leonard averaged 31.8 points(8.5 RPG) in his 12 playoff games, including setting a franchise record with nine straight 20-point outings. Leonard had 41 points in Toronto's Game 7 two-point victory over the 76ers, including first Game 7-winning buzzer-beater in NBA history, which featured  four bounces on the rim. Milwaukee has reached the East finals for the first time 2001, while Toronto is in the East finals for just the second time in franchise history.

Game 1 was was somewhat of a surprise, as the underdog Raptors led most of the way on Wednesday. However, the Bucks outscored the Raptors 32-17 over the final 12 minutes, including 10-0 run in the final 3:31 of the contest for a 108-100 win and COVER! Talk about a 'miracle' ATS win for Milwaukee bettors. Kawhi Leonard scored 31 points but only two came in the final stanza (both on FTs), as he struggled through a 10-of-26 shooting performance. PG Lowry was great, scoring 30 points (his 2019 playoff-high), including 14 poinst in the 4th quarter. Incredibly, he was the only Toronto player to make a FG in the 4th quarter (5 of 7), as the other seven players went a combined 0-15. In fact, on the game, take away Lowry and Leonard and the remainder of the Raptors went 14 of 51 from the floor (27.4%).

Giannis was not spectacular but he did have a double-double (24 & 14). The game's breakout star was center Brook Lopez, who scored  29 points (a career playoff-high) with 11 rebounds and four blocked shots. That's after  averaging just 5.4 points and 4.2 rebounds in the five-game conference semifinals against the Boston Celtics. Another piece of good news for Milwaukee was that combo guard Malcolm Brogdon scored 15 points off the bench (in 27 minutes), after scoring 10 points in 17 minutes in the clinching win over Boston. He had missed the previous seven-plus weeks with a foot injury.

The Raptors HAVE to feel that they let Game 1 "get away," while the Bucks believe they can improve Friday night in Game 2, after shaking off their rust. Obviously, both teams can improve in Game 2. The Raptors shot 37 percent (34-for-92) overall, including 35.7 percent (15-for-42) from behind the arc. The Bucks shot 39.8 percent (37-for-93) from the floor and only 25 percent (11-for-44) from three-point territory. I had the 'lucky' Game 1 winner in Milwaukee and wrote prior to that game, that this series is NOT just Kawhi vs Giannis. Milwaukee's bench entered averaging 37.4 points on 48.1 percent shooting, while Toronto's was averaging 21.6 points on 38.9 percent shooting. In an "off game" for both teams, Milwaukee's bench outscored Toronto's, 22-12 (winning margin was eight points!). It's my belief that Game 1 was a HUGE "opportunity lost" for Toronto. Milwaukee is an incredible 9-1 SU & ATS this postseason (no other remaining team comes close to matching that) and after its Game 1 win, checks in at 38-9 SU at home, averaging 119.0 PPG. Lay the poitst again, as this win comes with more 'breathing room!'

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Por Blazers at 9:00 ET.

Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson totally out-played Portland's backcourt duo of Lillard and McCollum in Game 1. Curry scored 36 points (made NINE three-pointers) and Thompson added 26. In contrast, Lillard had 19 points and McCollum 17. What's more, the Warriors shot 50.5% from the floor, including making 17 of 33 three-pointers. The Blazers made just 36.1% from the floor, including 7 of 28 on three-pointers.

Curry took several uncontested three-point shots during his fourth 30-point effort of the postseason and Damian Lillard knows that something needs to change. "That was very poor execution defensively on our part," Lillard said. "Just having our bigs back that far; understanding the team we are playing against, they are not going to shoot midrange jumpers and try to attack the rim. If they see the opportunity to shoot a 3, they are going to tell you. They shoot it at a high clip. We've got to bring our guys up and run them off the line, and (Tuesday) they were setting solid screens and coming off shooting practice shots." Portland needs to shore its defense plus CAN'T commit another 21 turnovers.

Kevin Durant is expected to miss Game 2 and after ranking 28th out of 30 teams in points off the bench during the regular season, the Warriors have gotten some much-needed help from its reserves in Game 6 vs Houston and in Game 1 vs the Blazers. Kevon Looney had 14 points and Shaun Livingston 11, as the Warriors dominated the Rockets 33-17 off the bench in that 118-113, series-clinching win. Then in Tuesday's Game 1, all eight Warriors backups who participated recording a positive plus/minus as Golden State's reserves outscored their Portland counterparts 36-28.

However, will the Warriors be able to keep that up? The Warriors are just 19-28-1 ATS at home this season (including 3-4 in the playoffs) and remember won Game 4 at OKC plus Games 2 and 7 at Denver, which was the NBA's best home team this year. Head coach Terry Stotts is confident his team will shoot better and NOT turn the ball over as much. Lillard noted after Game 1 that Portland shot horribly, while Golden St shot "lights out," yet the Blazers trailed by just six points entering the fourth quarter. I agree. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Eastern Conference Game 1 Stunner is on the Mil Bucks at 8:30 ET.

The Eastern Conference finals comes down to the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks and the second-seeded Toronto Raptors. Game 1 is Wednesday night and the series features tow of the NBA's best. Leading MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 27.4 points and 11.3 rebounds, as the Bucks went 8-1 SU and ATS against the Detroit Pistons and Boston Celtics, outscoring those opponents by an average of 15.3 PPG. Meanwhile, Kawhi Leonard is averaging 31.8 points(8.5 RPG) in 12 playoff games, including a franchise record nine straight 20-point outings. Leonard had 41 points in Toronto's Game 7 two-point victory over the 76ers, including first Game 7-winning buzzer-beater in NBA history, which featured  four bounces on the rim. Milwaukee has reached the East finals for the first time 2001, while Toronto is in the East finals for just the second time in franchise history.

Leonard is carrying Toronto's offense, as PF Pascal Siakam (20.8 & 7.3) and PG Kyle Lowry (12.4-5.0-7.1) are the only other Raptors averaging in double digits in the postseason. Regarding Lowry, he's been a HUGE underachiever in his postseason career and  he's shooting just 41.5 percent from the floor (28.1% on threes), so far. In contrast, Antetokounmpo's supporting class has been strong. SF Khris Middleton (19.1-6.0-4.6) plus PGs Eric Bledsoe (16.0-3.3-4.3) and George Hill (12.1) have more than looked "ready for primetime." What's more, combo guard Malcolm Brogdon (15.6-4.5-3.2 during the regular season), looks ready-to-go for this series, after scoring 10 points in 17 minutes in the clinching win over Boston, after missing the previous seven-plus weeks with a foot injury.

Yes, Leonard makes Toronto a much more viable contender but can I really overlook the team's 3-14 record in playoff openers (1-1 this postseason)? This series is NOT just Kawhi vs Giannis. Milwaukee's bench is averaging 37.4 points on 48.1 percent shooting, while Toronto's is  averaging 21.6 points on 38.9 percent shooting. Milwaukee comes in 37-9 at home this year (including the playoffs, averaging 119.2 PPG. Lay it!

Good luck...Larry

My NBA 10* 2nd Round ‘GAME OF YEAR’ is on the Den Nuggets at 3:30 ET.

The Denver Nuggets ended a five-year playoff drought by earning the West's No. 2 seed in 2019 (54-28). Their Game 5 home rout of the Blazers (124-98) put them ONE win away from the team's first trip to the Western Conference finals since 2009 but the Blazers responded with a 119-108 home in Game 6 (Portland's 13th win in its last 14 home games), sending this series back to Denver for a Game 7.

Portland's dynamic backcourt duo of Lillard (29.8-4.3-5.8 this postseason) and McCollum (24.5-5.5-3.6) were HUGE in Game 6, scoring 32 and 30 points, respectively. However,

backup Rodney Hood erupted for 25 on 8-of-12 shooting, posting a career playoff-high. Hood is averaging 16 points on 60 percent shooting vs the Nuggets. PF Zach Collins chipped in 14 points in Game 6 and the Blazers have outscored Denver by 22 points in 113 minutes with Hood and Collins on the floor during the series (according to NBA.com). An issue  for Portland issue has been center Enes Kanter, who is averaging just 6.0 PPG on 26.1 percent shooting over the last three games, after averaging 19.7 on 60 percent through the first three contests in the series.

Denver's star center Nikola Jokic is having quite a first-ever postseason. He's averaging 24.8-13.0-8.9 with 11 double-doubles in 13 games (four, triple-doubles). He's averaging 26.4-14.4-8.8 assists against Portland in this series. PG Jamal Murray is averaging 21.6-4.2-4.7 in the playoffs, including 24.7 PPG vs Portland. Veteran PF Paul Millsap is playing as he did when he was in his prime vs Portland, averaging at 18.7 & 9.0.

The Golden State Warriors are in the Western Conference Finals for the fifth straight year and await the winner of this Game 7. I've noted above the play of Hood and Collins off the bench for Portland but I've said all season that the Nuggets are arguably the NBA's deepest team. Yes, Jokic is having a "breakout" postseason plus Murry and Millsap have been excellent in this series but note that NINE Denver players have gotten into all 13 games this postseason for the Nuggets. Jokic and Murray are topping 20 PPG, Millsap is averaging 15.0 and Harris is at 14.2. However, FIVE others are chipping in from 4.6 to 9.2 PPG. 

I expect Jokic to again lead the way (he's dominated Kanter lately) but I also expect Denver's depth to be a difference-maker. Also, Hood and Collins WON'T replicate their Game 6 heroics here for the Blazers. Denver was an NBA-best 34-7 at home during the regular season, going 26-4 in its final 30 regular season games at Pepsi Center. Throw in them winning FIVE of seven at home in the postseason and the Nuggets are 31-6 in their last 37 home games. There have been 133 Game 7s in NBA history and home teams have won 105, or 79%. I'm NOT about to "take the points" with the Blazers, as in 48 home games this season (regular and postseason, combined), Denver has outscored its opponents 113.0-to-102.9 PPG.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NBA Game of the Week is on the Por Blazers at 10:35 ET.

The Denver Nuggets ended a five-year playoff drought by earning the West's No. 2 seed in 2019 (54-28) and with Tuesday's 124-98 home rout of the Blazers, are ONE win away from  the team's first trip to the Western Conference finals since 2009 (Can you say 'Melo?). Star center Nikola Jokic continued his stellar series with 25 points and 19 rebounds in Game 5 and he is averaging 26.4 points, 14.4 rebounds and 8.8 assists against Portland. He's averaging 24.5-13.1-9.0 in his first-ever postseason with 10 double-doubles in 12 games (including four triple-doubles). Portland's dynamic guard duo of Lillard and McCollum came up woefully short in Game 5. Despite scoring 22 points, Lillard was just 9-of-21 shooting, including 2-of-9 from three-point range. As for McCollum, he had just a2 points, while making only 5 of 16 shots (31.3%).

I've noted all season that Denver is arguably the league's deepest team and in back-to back impressive wins (116-112  at Portland in Game 4 and Game 5's home blowout), 13-year veteran power forward Paul Millsap has scored 21 and 24 points. He's been a difference-maker in the series, averaging 19.0 & 9.6, while recording three double-doubles. In contrast, Portland PF Al-Farouq Aminu managed just three points on 1-of-8 shooting in Game 5, after scoring a series-best 19 points in Game 4. As for center Enes Kanter, he is honoring Ramadan by not eating from sunrise to sunset and got dominated by Jokic, scoring just nine points on 2-for-9 shooting (he did have a team-high eight rebounds).

We've got two must-wins," Trail Blazers head coach Terry Stotts told reporters after Game 5. "Somebody was going to have a must-win after (Tuesday), and it's us. So we've got two must-wins ahead of us."That's pretty simple and I'm far from counting Portland out, here. Can Denver really beat them THREE in a row? After all, the Nuggets finished the regular season (from Dec 1 through its end) going a pathetic 1-10 SU on the road vs Western Conference playoff teams. They were just 1-4 SU on the road in the postseason, prior to their Game 4 win. As for Portland, the Blazers had not lost a home game since March 7, 129-121 in OT to OKC, when its 12-game home winning streak was broken in Game 4. The Nuggets are headed back for a SECOND straight Game 7 at home.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Rivalry Showdown (Part 3) is on the GS Warriors at 10:35 ET.

The Houston Rockets have the momentum in this series, having won Games 3 and 4 at home to knot this Western Conference semifinals series at 2-2. However, the Rockets will have to figure out a way to win a game in Oakland if they are to finally get the best of the Warriors in this series. The Houston/Golden St rivalry has turned into a best-of-three for the second straight year. Houston broke the 2-2 tie with a win in Game 5 at home in last year's Western finals but Golden State then swept the final two games to reach the NBA Finals, where the Warriors captured their second straight championship and third in four years (note: Chris Paul missed Games 6 & 7).

Houston has made 66 three-pointers in the series, 26 more than the Warriors. James Harden has drained 18 three-pointers while averaging 35.8 points but two other Houston players have been key. Shooting guard Eric Gordon has made 16 three-pointers while averaging 23 points and power forward P.J. Tucker is averaging 12.3 points and 10.7 rebounds over the past three games, while also harassing K.D.

However, Kevin Durant is averaging 36 points in the series, with a high game of 46 and a low output of 29. However, Splash Brothers Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson have not held up their end. Curry is 12-of-46 (26.1%) from three-point range in the series and Thompson is just 8-of-26 (30.8%). Joining the above-mentioned trio in the starting lineup have been Green and Iquodola. Green is averaging 15.8-11.2-8.2 and Iquodala 13.6 & 5.2. Iguodala has played 29 or more minutes in all four games of the series. He played more than 29 minutes just seven times during the regular season. He's also started all four games alongside Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant and Green, after never having joined that All-Star quartet in the starting lineup in any regular-season game during his Warriors career.

Here's what happened down the stretch in the last two games at Houston. Houston was clinging to a one-point lead in Gamer 3 when Iguodala's three-pointer put Golden State up 112-110 with 45 seconds remaining. Harden made two free throws a few seconds after that to tie it and Durant missed a jump shot on the other end to give Houston a chance to win it in regulation. Chris Paul was in the lane when Klay Thompson forced a jump ball. Harden got the ball but didn't have time to get a shot off before the buzzer. Houston then won by five in OT (who will forget Curry's blown dunk shot?) In Game 4, the Rockets were up by nine before the Golden State scored the next seven points, capped by a three from Stephen Curry, to get within 110-108 with 19 seconds left. Harden made one of two free throws with 11.5 seconds left. Kevin Durant missed a three after that. But the Warriors got the rebound and Curry also missed a 3-point attempt before Golden State was forced to foul Chris Paul. "We got a couple of wide-open looks," Durant said. "They just didn't fall for us." Paul made one of two free throws with 2.9 seconds left to secure the four-point victory.

However, Golden St knows it out-shot Houston 48.2 percent to 44.4 and out-rebounded the visitors 41.5 per game to 33.5 in the first two games of this series. We saw BOTH home teams (in similar 2-2 series) win in blowout fashion last night and after ca$hing two straight wins on the Rockets, I'm "all in" on the defending champs in this one. Lay it!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Bos Celtics at 7:05 ET.

The Milwaukee Bucks didn't panic after losing 112-90 at home to the Celtics in Game 1 of this series. The Bucks didn't need to make any drastic changes, they just needed to increase the aggressiveness and execution.  Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way, averaging 30.5 & 11.0 in Games 2 and 3, with Milwaukee shooting 47.4% as a team and scoring 123 points in both wins. Boston's star, PG Kyrie Irving, scored 26 points on 12-of-21 shooting in the Game 1 win but went a combined 12-of-40 (30.0%) from the floor in Games 2 and 3, including 3-of-13 from three-point range (23.1%). 

Antetokounmpo led the way in Game 3 with 32 points but it was the supporting cast that pushed Milwaukee over the top. Shooting guard Pat Connaughton scored 14 points and PG George Hill led the "Bench Mob" with 21 points on 9-of-12 shooting in 29 minutes. For Boston, after shooting 54.0% in its surprising Game 1 upset, the Celtics have made just 69 of 167 shots (41.3%) in Games 2 and 3.

The Bucks' playoff win in Boston in Game 3 was rather noteworthy. It was the first playoff win in Boston for the Bucks since May 13, 1987. Yes, Milwaukee was just 0-5 in that span but FOUR of those losses came in an Eastern Conference first-round series last year, when the Celtics survived in a seven-game series (home team won all seven games). Getting back to Boston, its Game 3 home loss was just the Celtics' SECOND home playoff loss in 14 games the last two postseasons. If Boston head back to Milwaukee down 3-1, it would likely be "all she wrote." Expect Kyrie to shine and I'm backing Boston.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the Por Blazers at 7:05 ET.

The Denver Nuggets and Portland Trail Blazers battled each other in the longest postseason game since 1953 on Friday, with Portland coming out on top 140-137 in only the second four-overtime contest in postseason history.  Now, some 41 hours after the end of that memorable contest, the teams will tip it off again in Game 4. "(The Blazers) have the same turnaround," Denver head coach Mike Malone said after Game 3. "You try to learn from the loss and get (the players) ready for battle. Both teams are exhausted. It's the same for them as it is for us. We will not use it as an excuse. We haven't used it all year long, and we won't use it now." Portland head coach Terry Stotts added this after his Blazers had finally put away the Nuggets to grab a 2-1 lead in the best-of-seven series. "I have no idea what happened in the first half, the second half or the first three overtimes. I've never been involved in a game like that, regular season or playoffs." To set the record straight, Game 3 was a three-hour, 35-minute marathon that left players and coaches drained at the final buzzer. There were 24 lead changes and 18 ties.

Denver center Nikola Jokic logged a game-high 65 minutes and finished with 33 points, 18 rebounds and 14 assists for his third triple-double of the postseason. He led the Nuggets in scoring, rebounding and assists in the regular season and is doing so again in his "breakout" postseason (24.8-12.9-9.1). Jamal Murray added 34 points in 55 minutes for Denver in the loss while Gary Harris (13 points, 50 minutes) and Paul Millsap (17 points, 13 rebounds, 49 minutes) were also pushed to the limit. Murray's averaging 20.5 PPG in the postseason plus four more players chip in between 9.1 and 13.1 PPG, while two others add 6.3 & 6.2 PPG. Denver is the NBA's deepest team.

Star PG Damian Lillard added 28 points in 58 minutes in the win and leads Portland this postseason, averaging 30.8-4.4-6.0. However, it was his backcourt mate, CJ McCollum, who drained the big shots in the fourth quarter and in the third overtime to keep the game alive, before finishing with 41 points in 60 minutes. McCollum is averaging 24.9-5.6-4.12 in the playoffs. Center Enes Kanter is battling a separated shoulder but still managed 18 points and 15 rebounds in 56 minutes in Game 3 and is averaging a double-double this postseason (15.6 & 10.2). Let's NOT ignore Rodney Hood, who came off the bench to score seven of his career playoff-high 19 points in the fourth overtime. His three-pointer with 18.6 seconds remaining gave the Blazers a 138-136 lead they wouldn't relinquish. He's averaging 17.0 PPG in the series!!

Denver is the deeper team, so does that favor them here off Friday's 'marathon?' I guess one could argue that but I'm NOT one of them. Look at the facts. The Nuggets finished the regular season (from Dec 1 through its end) going a pathetic 1-10 SU on the road vs Western Conference playoff teams. Here IN the playoffs, the Nuggets are 1-4 SU on the road. Meanwhile, the Blazers last lost a home game way back on March 7, 129-121 in OT to OKC. Portland takes a 12-game home winning streak into this contest and with this pointspread, should cover "with room to spare!?

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Tor Raptors at 3:35 ET.

The Philadelphia 76ers dropped the first game of their Eastern Conference opening round series at home vs the Brooklyn Nets but rebounded to win and cover the next four games. Could it be deja vu all over again for Philly in their semifinal series against the Toronto Raptors? The 76ers were manhandled 108-95 by the Raptors in Game 1 but then won Game 2 by the score of 94-89, which broke a 14-game losing streak for the 76ers in Toronto. Was that win a breakthrough? It sure looked like that in Game 3, as the 76ers routed the Raptors, 116-95. All five Philly starters scored in double digits but Embiid (33 & 10) and Butler (22-9-9) were the key performers.

Leonard's been outstanding for Toronto this postseason, averaging 31.5 PPG on shooting 57.9%, including averaging 37.7 points on 60.9 percent shooting in this series. All-Star PG Kyle Lowry is shooting 36.1 percent from the floor in the series and slumped to seven points on 2-of-10 from the floor in Thursday's loss. Lowry's had a history of very erratic play in the postseason. Maybe a bigger problem for Toronto is that the 6-9 Pascal Siakam, who had a breakout regular season and is averaging 23.3 points and 5.7 rebounds on 36.3 minutes through the first three games. He's listed as doubtful due to a right calf contusion.

Embiid has been hampered by a sore left knee throughout the postseason but had a playoff career-high 33 points to go along with 10 rebounds and five blocked shots in only 28 minutes in Game 3. He became the first player since Boston's Kevin McHale to post at least 30 points and 10 rebounds in less than 30 minutes in a playoff game. Butler was the star in Philly's Game 2 win and was excellent again in Game 3 (see above). Not only did all five Philly starters reach double digits in Game 3 but all five are averaging double figures during Philly's eight postseason games.

I realize Philly looks to be in a great position in teh series, especially with Siakam listed as doubtful but don't be surprised to see him "give it a go." However, I'm still not completely sold on Philly plus one never knows when Embiid's sore left knee will act up. As for Toronto, Leonard is capable of carrying his team plus as noted above, Lowry has been know to follow dreadful efforts in the playoffs with excellent ones. Also, Ibaka (15.0 & 8.1 in the regular season) is overdue for a big game, as is veteran center Gasol, who has been dominated by Embiid (Gasol is 6-of-20 from the floor in the series).

The Raptors had held opponents under 100 points in six straight playoff games (winning the first five), allowing the 76ers to shoot 51.2 percent from the floor in Game 3, while scoring 116 points. "I think we had six straight games of tremendous effort and tremendous defense, right?" Toronto head coach Nick Nurse asked reporters. "(Thursday) night we didn't have that, so again I think that the six in a row is what you're trying to get back to, with that kind of effort and whatever." Toronto has lost back-to-back games but has lost THREE straight just ONCE all season, way back from Nov 12-16. I'm "all over" the Raptors in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Rivalry Showdown is on the Hou Rockets at 8:30 ET.

The Golden State Warriors brushed aside the chatter about officiating after Game 1 (a 104 victory) and earned a 115-109 win in Game 2 on Tuesday. The teams have been off for three days when they resume their bitter rivalry tonight in Houston, as the Warriors look to take a commanding 3-0 advantage in Saturday's Game 3. The Rockets had their chances in each of teh first two games but it was the Warriors who made the big (key) plays.

K.D. is averaging 34.2 PPG in the postseason but it's impossible to ignore the recent play of Green and Iquodala. With Cousins out, Kerr has returned to the starting lineup which won the team it first title, beating the Cavs in the 2015 NBA Finals. Iquodala, who won the 2015 Finals MVP, has been added to the starting lineup and he's averaged 15.0-4.3-3.3 the last three games, after averaging just 5.7 PPG during the regular season. Green has long been considered one of the NBA best overall players but he had a so-so season. However, he's averaged 15.0-11.7-8.7 the last three games. His defense, along with Iqoudala's, KD's and Thompson's, make the Warriors one helluva team.

However, the Rockets have given the Warriors first the last couple years, but in the end, always seem to fall short. Will it change here in 2019? James Harden had to leave Game 2 briefly after getting scratched in both eyes. "He got raked pretty good in the eyes, but that's him," Rockets head coach Mike D'Antoni told reporters. "I mean, I didn't have a doubt that he was coming back unless it was something catastrophic. I'm sure he would have loved to play better. Under the circumstances, I thought he played great." Harden averaged 36.1-6.6-7.5 in the regular season but he's shooting just 37.7% in the postseason (down from 44.2%), while averaging 29.0 PPG.

This is Houston's game to win.The Rockets have had off since Tuesday and falling behind 0-3 leaves them in an impossible position. As good as Golden St is, Houston has won the last two season series against them and led 3-2 in the Western Conference finals last year, before Paul got hurt and couldn't play in Games 6 & 7 (Golden St won both). All hands are on deck for this one and if not now for Houston, when?

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Run-line Rout is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET.

The Reds won Monday's series opener 5-4 over the Mets on a ninth-inning HR. They then got a pair of RBI singles to tie last night's game at 3-all, before the Mets survived that ninth-inning comeback to even the series on a sacrifice fly in the 10th for a 4-3 victory. The Mets are just 6-7 at Citi Field on the season (15-14 overall), while the Reds are 5-11 on the road and 12-17, overall.

The pitching matchup for this third contest of the four-game series will feature Anthony DeSclafani (1-1, 4.26 ERA) and Jacob deGrom (2-3, 4.85 ERA). DeSclafani earned his first win of 2019 in his last outing, limiting St.Louis to four hits and striking out six over six scoreless innings of a a 12-1 Cincy victory. DeGrom won last year's NL Cy Young award (despite a 10-9 record) but he quickly staked a claim on a second straight Cy Young by opening the 2109 season in dominating fashion. He struck out 24 batters over 13 scoreless innings to start 2-0 but he then stumbled with three straight rocky outings (14 ERs allowed over 13 innings), which was interrupted by a stint on the injured list due to an elbow issue.

Tonight, deGrom is back on the mound and in four career starts against the Reds he has 34 strikeouts and a 2,25 ERA. As for DeSclafani, the Mets have been a nightmarish matchup for him, as he is 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA in four games (three starts) against them. OK, talk of winning back-to-back Cy Young Awards one week into the season was obviously premature but it's time to see the "real" deGrom tonight and the Mets will welcome seeing DeSclafani as his mound opponent. Lay the 1 1/2 runs,,

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NBA Game of the Week is on the Mil Bucks at 8:05 ET.

Boston was able to get past Milwaukee last year, escaping with a Game 7 win at home to eliminate the upstart Bucks in the first round. However, the Bucks won more games than any team in this year's NBA (60) and opened their second round series with the Celtics this postseason as prohibitive favorites, after averaging 121.8 points during a four-game, first-round sweep of the Detroit Pistons. Boston won 49 games during the regular season (11 fewer than Milwaukee) and while the Celtics also delivered a four-game sweep in the first round (over the Pacers), Sunday's Game 1 results has to be considered stunning. Fourth-seeded Boston frustrated Milwaukee MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo and received an outstanding performance from Al Horford while posting a dominating 112-90 victory.

Kyrie Irving opened the series with 26 points and 11 assists (no surprise, as he's led the team in scoring all season) but it was Horford's performance that had all talking after the game. Horford had 20 points, 11 rebounds and three blocks in the 22-point triumph and led the charge against Antetokounmpo, who was just 7-of-21 shooting while scoring 22 points. Horford was on the floor at the same time as Antetokounmpo for 22 minutes. During that time, Antetokounmpo made just 2 of 11 shots and had two shots blocked by Horford, as the Bucks posted a 63.3 offensive rating in those minutes. The top-seeded Bucks shot just 34.8 percent from the floor and had 11 shots blocked! Forward Khris Middeton (18.3-6.0-4.3 during the regular season) contributed 16 points, 10 rebounds and six assists but Milwaukee's other three starters combined for just 12 points on 3-of-17 shooting.

So what should we expect in Game 2? Boston not only played great D in Game 1 but also shot 54 percent. It was the team's highest field goal percentage in a conference semifinal game since Game 5 in 2010 at Cleveland. Boston is unbeaten in the postseason and is attempting to start a postseason with six straight wins for the first time since 1985-86. The Celtics are allowing 91.4 PPG in their first five playoff games. Getting back to Milwaukee, the Bucks' 34.8 shooting percentage was their worst in a postseason game since Game 6 of 2015's first round contest against the Chicago Bulls. Do NOT expect a repeat performance.

Milwaukee averaged 118.1 PPG (1st) in the regular season, while making 47.6% from the floor (3rd). The Bucks have averaged 119.2 PPG at home in going 35-9 SU (includes the postseason) and what's more, Milwaukee held its opponents to 43.3% shooting during the regular season, best in the league. The "real" Bucks show up tonight, as does the team's would-be league MVP. Sunday's loss was the third-worst loss by a No. 1 seed in a series opener under the league's current format. The Bucks have NO intention of joining the 2018 Toronto Raptors as the only top seed to fall behind 2-0 in this round under the current 16-team format that began in 1984. Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Den Nuggets at 10:30 ET.

The third-seeded Portland Trail Blazers will be well-rested when they visit the second-seeded Denver Nuggets for Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals on Monday. The Blazers eliminated the OKC Thunder in five games last Tuesday, while the Nuggets needed all seven games to get past San Antonio. Denver edged the Spurs 90-86 this past Saturday night at Pepsi Center.

Portland PG Damian Lillard exploded for 50 points in the team's Game 5 clincher against the Thunder, with the last three coming on a step-back three-pointer at the buzzer from 37 feet away. Lillard (33.0-4.4-6.0) and backcourt partner CJ McCollum (24.4-5.4-4.0) carried the scoring load in the first round but the team was able to overcome the loss of starting center Jusuf Nurkic (15.6 & 10.4 during the regular season) thanks to the play of Enes Kanter (13.2 & 10.2).

Denver has arguably been the NBA's deepest team all season but its first round win came mostly on the back of the team's All Star center, Nikola Jokic. He led the Nuggets in scoring (20.0), rebounding (10.8) and assists (7.2) in the regular season and recorded a triple-double with 21 points, 15 rebounds and 10 assists in Game 7. Jokic's postseason debut has been a "coming-out" party. His 43 points in Game 6 established a franchise playoff record he averaged 23.1-12.1-9.1 assists vs the Blazers with six double-doubles (included were triple-doubles in Games 1 & 7). Point guard Jamal Murray, the team's second best player during the regular season (18.2-4.2-4.8), was inconsistent in the first round but came through with a team-high 23 points in the clincher.

The Blazers are better rested but the Nuggets come in with plenty of confidence. Denver was an NBA-best 34-7 at home during the regular season, going 26-4 in its final 30 regular season games at Pepsi Center. Throw in them winning THREE of four at home in the first round and the Nuggets are 29-5 in their last 34 home games. The Nuggets fared well against the Trail Blazers in the regular season, winning the first three meetings (extending their winning streak to SIX in a  row over Portland), before the Blazers ended that six-game skid with a 115-108 home win on April 7.However, in that contest, Denver rested both Jamal Murray AND Nikola Jokic. Safe to say Jokic won't be rested here and I believe a fully-healthy Kanter would have a difficult time dealing with Jokic. However, it's hard to see Kanter being 100 percent. He reportedly played through a separated shoulder in the Game 5 win last Tuesday and has received treatment all week while practicing on a limited basis.  I think the Blazers are doing a very good job taking care of it. But, I mean obviously, I'm not going to lie, it hurts pretty bad," Kanter told reporters Friday. "I mean I'm having a hard time changing my shirt or eating food. So it's a process. We're just taking it day by day, see how it feels."That does NOT seem like promising news for Portland fans (bettors).

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NBA Game of the Month is on the GS Warriors at 3:30 ET.

The Golden State Warriors barely escaped the Houston Rockets in the Western Conference finals last season. PG Chris Paul went down in Game 5 of that series with a hamstring injury and the Warriors would go on to take the series, winning Game 6 at home in a rout and then eking out a Game 7 win in Houston, as the Rockets 'shot themselves in the foot' by missing 27 three-pointers in a row during the decisive Game 7. The teams meet in a rematch a round earlier this year and the while the top-seeded Warriors own the homecourt advantage this time around, the fourth-seeded Rockets did win both regular season meetings in Oakland during the regular season.

The Rockets went up 3-0 in their series with the Jazz and after a Game 4 'stumble,' closed out Utah back at Houston in Game 5. Meanwhile, the Warriors were shocked in Game 2 at home by the Clippers and then again at home in Game 5, after they entered that contest off back-to-back wins in LA. Golden St took care of the Clippers easily in Game 6, as K.D. had a career playoff-high 50 points and the team's defense (thanks in large part to Andre Iguodala) harassed LA's Lou Williams into 3-for-21 shooting in the series finale (note: Williams had 36 and 33 points in Gam2 and Game 5 wins at Oakland). Maybe it shouldn't be too much of a surprise that the Rockets had an easier time in the first round than the Warriors, as over the regular season's final eight weeks the Rockets went 20-4, while the Warriors were a modest 15-9.

However, while James Harden struggled to 37.4 percent from the floor in the first round, Kevin Durant averaged 35 points on 56.7 percent shooting vs the Clippers. The rivals will be meeting in the postseason for the fourth time in the last five seasons, with Golden State having prevailed in the previous three. The Rockets lost 10 of 11 in the regular season and eight of 10 in the playoffs to the Warriors to begin the Steve Kerr coaching era but have won each of the last two season series. However, let's NOT forget Houston's loss to Golden St in last year's Western Finals (see above). Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson both limped off the court after rolling ankles in Friday's Game 6  but I sure wouldn't count them out, here. Game 1 is HUGE and I'm making a 'big play" on the three-time NBA champs (over a four-year span).

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Den Nuggets at 10:05 ET.

The San Antonio Spurs forced a Game 7 with Thursday's 120-103 win at home. LaMarcus Aldrige had pretty much been a non-factor in the first five games of the series but scored 26 points and added 10 rebounds in Game 6. DeRozan, the team's leading scorer in the postseason so far at 22.5 PPG, chipped in 25-7-7, plus Rudy Gay had 19 points. San Antonio opened the fourth quarter on a 22-4 run, blowing the game open and finished the contest shooting 57.1 percent from the floor. The Nuggets dominated the paint in Game 6 (outscored the Spurs 72-36) but shot a woeful 6 of 24 (25%) on threes. Jokic posted a career-playoff high of 43 points and just missed a triple-double with 12 rebounds and nine asists.

The series concludes with Saturday's Game 7 in Denver. San Antonio is looking to avoid its second straight first-round exit, after staving off elimination by shooting 57.1 percent from the floor and committing just eight turnovers. Can the Spurs really do that again here in Denver?The Spurs did win Game 1 of this series in Denver but in Game 2 and 5 losses at Pepsi center, the Spurs averaged just 97.5 PPG on 43.2% shooting, including 28.6% on threes.

Denver's All-Star center Nikola Jokic's postseason debut has been a "coming-out" party. His 43 points in Game 6 established a franchise playoff record and he enters Game 7 averaging 23.5-11.7-9.0 with five double-doubles in the series. Denver has arguably been the NBA's deepest team all season but its bench totaled only 13 points on 5-of-24 shooting in Game 6. Doesn't that almost HAVE to change here in Game 7?

Here's the rub. The Spurs had gone 0-6 SU (0-6 or 0-5-1 ATS) against Western Conference playoff teams on the road since the calendar turned to 2019, before winning Game 1. Throw in San Antonio's road losses (and non-covers) in Games 2 and 5 and the Spurs are 1-8 SU and 1-8 ATS (or 1-7-1 ATS)  in tonight's situation since Jan 1. As for Denver,  the Nuggets were an NBA-best 34-7 at home during the regular season, going 26-4 in their final 30 regular season games at Pepsi Center. Throw in this series and the Nuggets are 28-5 in their last 33 home games. Home teams win Game 7s more than 80% of the time and I'm laying the points. This is NOT "your father's" Spurs!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the SA Spurs at 8:05 ET.

The 48-34 San Antonio Spurs entered the 2019 postseason as the West's No. 7 seed but they've been playoff regulars, as 2019 marked the team's 22nd consecutive postseason appearance (it's the longest streak among the four major North American sports). As for the 54-28 Denver Nuggets, they lost a chance to make the postseason last year when they lost in OT at Minnesota in the season's final game. However, Denver surprised this season by battling the Golden State Warriors until the final week for the West's top-seed. The Nuggets ended a five-year playoff drought by earning the West's No. 2 seed with a record in the regular season. The Spurs shocked the Nuggets in Game 1, winning at Pepsi Center. However, the Nuggets have won Games 2, 4 & 5 of the series and tonight in San Antonio are in position to win a playoff series for the first time since 2009. Meanwhile, the Spurs are looking to avoid their second consecutive first-round exit and to avoid that scenario, will have to put up a better effort than they did in Game 5.

The Nuggets dominated Game 5, leading by 11 at the half and by as many as 30 points in the final quarter to seize their first lead of the series. I've noted all season that the Nuggets are arguably the NBA's deepest team. Jamal Murray paced Denver with 23 points, one of SEVEN Nuggets in double figures. All-Star center Nikola Jokic has four double-doubles (including one triple double) during a strong playoff debut. He's averaging 19.6-11.6-9.0 in the series.

Second-year PG Derrick White starred in the first three games of this series, averaging 23.0 PPG, as the Spurs went up 2-1. However, he's struggled in two straight losses, averaging just 10.0 PPG on 8-of-19 shooting (42.1%). LaMarcus Aldridge paced the Spurs in Game 5 with 17 points and 10 rebounds but overall, has been a non-factor in the series, after leading San Antonio in scoring (21.3) and rebounding (9.2) during the regular season. Spurs SG DeMar DeRozan added 17 points but made just 6 of 15 shots. He's averaged just 18 points in the back-to-back setbacks, dropping his team-best series average to 22.0.

Here's the rub. "A close-out game is the hardest game that many of our young players will ever play in, especially against a team like San Antonio," Nuggets head coach Michael Malone told reporters."We want to win two straight," Spurs guard Bryn Forbes said,. "Our goal is to play the best two games we can put together and try to win these next two." I just don't see the veteran Spurs "going out' in this Game 6 at home. After all, when the Nuggets 'rocked' the Spurs in Game 4, that victory snapped a 14-game losing streak in San Antonio which stretched back to March 4, 2012. That Game 4 win also was just Denver's SECOND win on the road (in 13 tries!) vs Western Conference playoff teams since Dec 1. This series is headed back to Denver for a Game 7.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* play is on the OKC Thunder at 10:35 ET.

The Portland Trail Blazers are on the verge of reaching the Western Conference semifinals after taking a 3-1 series lead over the sixth-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder. Portland is best-known as an offensive team but the team's defense has been equally important in building a 3-1 lead in this first-round playoff series with OKC. The Blazers have held the Thunder under 100 points in each of their three wins. That said, let's NOT ignore Portland's dynamic guard duo of Lillard (28.8) and McCollum (26.3), who have helped the team take a 3-1 lead. Lillard and McCollum combined for 51 points and 11 assists in Game 4, which was 34 points more than the Thunder's starting backcourt accounted for. Then there is center Enes Kanter, who has stepped in for the injured Nurkic to average 13.3 & 9.5, outplaying OKC's Steven Adams (Adams was held to six points on Sunday, his first single-digit effort of the series).

Can (will?) Portland close it out there in Game 5? Paul George is averaging 26.8 points and 8.5 rebounds in the series but is shooting only 37 percent from the floor, including 30.8 from three-point range. Guard Russell Westbrook is averaging 21.3--8.3-9.8 but is shooting 36.3 percent from the floor, including 30.4 from the three-point line. OKC needs more form its complementary players as noted by backup point guard Dennis Schroder. "We've got to move the ball,"  he told reporters. "They're doing a great job playing (All-Stars Russell Westbrook and Paul George), but I think the other guys who were on the floor got to be aggressive, got to get the ball, make a play for somebody else or finish."

That makes sense but if OKC is to win, Westbrook and George will have to come up big. Game 1 came down to the wire but then Portland routed OKC in Game 2, Westbrook was 5 of 20 in Game 2 but rebounded with 33 points and 11 assists in Game 2, a 120-108 OKC win. Westbrook was 5-of-21 from the floor in Game 4, including 0-of-10 in the second half, as the Blazers again routed OKC (George struggled with an 8-of-21 effort). No series pick from me but I expect OKC's "Big 2" will carry the day, here (watch out for Adams, as well).

Good luck...Larry

My 8* play is on the Brk Nets at 8:05 ET.

The Brooklyn Nets (+7.5) upset the 76ers in Game 1 by a score of 111-102 in Philly, as the home team heard boos coming off the court. However, Philly has recovered to win THREE in a row, including a 112-108 victory at Brooklyn in Game 4. "We were right there," guard Spencer Dinwiddie told reporters after Saturday's loss put the Sixers up 3-1. "We feel like we should've won. We weren't saying this was a learning experience when we won Game 1. So we can't fall back on that now. We need to try to pull off something incredible."  To do so, sixth-seeded Brooklyn will need to keep its emotions in check following a contest that saw multiple ejections after a scrum along the baseline.

The Nets have relied on the backcourt duo of Caris LeVert and D'Angelo Russell, who combined for 46 points in Game 4. Russell (22.3) is leading the team in this series, followed by LeVert (21.8) and fellow guard Dinwiddie (17.5). Center Jarrett Allen is averaging 11.8 & 6.3 and is coming off his best game of the season, going for 21 & 8 on Saturday. However, after shooting a league-best 47.4% from three-point range this season, Joe Harris missed all six of his long-range attempts in the Game 4 loss and is 0-for-12 in the three straight defeats, after making 3-of-4 in the victory in Game 1. He averaged 13.7 PPG during the regular season but is averaging just 8.8 in the series, while shooting 18.8% on threes.

Joel Embiid is averaging 25.3 points (on 51% shooting), 13.7 rebounds, 3.7 blocks and four assists while playing about 26 minutes per game. He led the way for Philadelphia with 31 points, 16 rebounds, seven assists and six blocked shots in Game 4, after sitting out Game 3. He was limited to an average of 22.5 minutes through the first two games of the series and missed 14 of the final 24 regular-season games (not to mention Game 3 of this series). Is it possible Embiid could 'sit' tonight, or at least be limited?

Let's not forget that the Nets were 8-18 through Dec 5 but went 34-22 from that point to finish 42-40 and grab the sixth seed. Brooklyn does NOT have to win here, to "get the cash" and note that Philly was just 13-17 ATS its final 30 regular season games. The bet is to take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* play is on the Orl Magic at 7:05 ET.

The Raptors were shocked by the Magic in Game 1 of this series, as Orlando won 104-10 in Toronto. That shouldn't have been too much of a surprise, as the Raptors fell to 1-10 in the openers of first-round series in franchise history with the loss and to just 2-14 in Game 1 of any postseason series. However, what is different this year is, Toronto has Kawhi Leonard. Leonard scored 37 points in the Raptors' 111-82 Game 2 victory and while he was less than 100% in Game 3 (dealing with an illness), he still manged 16 points and 10 rebounds. Leonard led the assault in Toronto's 107-85 Game 4 win, scoring 34 points. As for Orlando, after making 14 of 29 three-pointers (48.3%) in their Game 1 win,

the Magic have gone a woeful 29 of 111 (26.1%) from three-point range in three straight losses.

Leonard is averaging 28.0 points in the series and said after Game 4 he is enjoying being back in the playoffs after missing the postseason last season while injured with the San Antonio Spurs. Power forward Pascal Siakam is averaging 22.3 points and nine rebounds in the series, following his excellent regular season. The Magic are averaging just 86.7 points during their three straight losses, scoring 85 or fewer points in two of the losses. That said, Orlando won Game 1 here and also won on the road as part of a 2-2 split in the regular season. Yes, Leonard's presence makes Toronto a different team in 2019 but the Raptors have NEVER previously won four straight in a playoff series. Expect the Magic to play 'loose' here and let's not forget, the Magic are getting about two 'TD' (excluding extra-points). Take those points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Run-line Rout is on the Cle Indians at 6:10 ET.

The Cleveland Indians coughed up a late six-run lead in the second game of Saturday's doubleheader (8-7 loss) and then Atlanta scored nine times in the first four innings and handed Cleveland an 11-5 defeat Sunday night on ESPN. The back-back losses drops the Indians to 12-9, 1 1/2 games back of the Twins in the AL Central.  Cleveland welcomes the Miami Marlins to town for a two-game IL series, as the Marlins begin a six-game road trip after winning their first series of the season, taking the first two games before dropping a 5-0 decision to Stephen Strasburg and Washington at home Sunday. Miami owns MLB's worst record at 6-16.

Pablo Lopez (1-3, 5.85 ERA) will get the nod for Miami, opposed by Cleveland's Carlos Carrasco (2-2, 7.41). Lpoez won his 2019 debut (7-3 over Colorado on March 30) but has dropped three straight decisions since that time. In all fairness, the Marlins did not score in ANY of those contests. Still, the 23-year-old, owns a 6.14 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in his three losses. Lopez faces the Indians for the first time in his career. Carrasco "returned to form" in his last start, allowing three hits and two walks over seven scoreless innings with 12 strikeouts in a 1-0 win at Seattle . He opened the season by  posting a 12.60 ERA in his first three starts. Carrasco pitched 7.1 scoreless innings in 2016 in his lone career start against the Marlins.

I'm not all that concerned with Carrasco's poor start, as he comes in off years of 18-6 and 17-10. He will face a Miami lineup which ranks last in all of MLB in runs scored (2.73 per), 27th in BA (.215) and 29th in OPS (29th). The Marlins are 1-5 on the road in 2019, where they've averaged just 1.33 RPG. As for Lopez, Miami's gone 1-3 in his three 2019 starts and adding that to the team's 2-8 record in his 2018 starts, the Marlins have gone 3-11 in his 14 career starts. Note that just TWO of those 11 losses have come by just one run. Lay the 1 1/2 runs with the Indians.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NBA Game of the Week is on the Ut Jazz at 10:35 ET.

James Harden incredibly missed his first 15 field-goal attempts and finished 3-of-20 from the floor but came through with a pair of thee-pointers in the fourth quarter and had no trouble getting to the free-throw line (14 of 16) while finishing with 22 points in Houston's 104-101 victory in Game 3. Harden scored 14 of his 22 points in the fourth quarter and added 10 assists and six steals in the victory. PG Chris Paul scored 18 points, Clint Capela recorded a double-double with 11 points and 14 rebounds and P.J. Tucker scored the last of his 12 points at the free-throw line to seal the win on Saturday.

Utah saw guard Donovan Mitchell score a series-high 34 points in Game 3 but he missed a wide-open look at a three-pointer that would have tied the game with 8.7 seconds left. Overall, Mitchell was just 9 of 27 from the floor and he missed FIVE of his 17 free-throw attempts. Head coach Quin Snyder gave Jae Crowder the Game 3 start but he finished with just five points in 24 minutes. SF Joe Ingles is only 4-of-17 from three-point range in the series.

One could look at this series this way. The Utah Jazz did about as well as any team can possibly do defensively against James Harden in Game 3, yet still couldn't come away with a victory. "We didn't capitalize as much as we needed to, especially during a stretch there in the third quarter where I thought we had a chance to build a little bit of a lead," Snyder told reporters after the game. "We got some looks that we had to take, and they didn't fall." The Jazz were understandably deflated after the game but struggling Donovan Mitchell promises he and his teammates will put forth an extreme effort in Game 4. "I don't think anybody is going to just lay over Monday," Mitchell said during a press conference. "I don't think that is going to be the case. I don't think that is what our organization is based on. ... It is an uphill battle, but we are not going to lay over and give them a game."

Houston is in prime position to close out the first-round series with Utah but the Rockets haven't swept a playoff series since taking three straight from the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round of the 1997 postseason (that's more than 20 years ago!). The Jazz finished the regular season with an eight-game winning streak at home, with an average margin of victory of 14.8 PPG. Here in Game 4, the Jazz are small home dogs, unlike in Game 3 in which they were a small favorite. Expect Utah to send this series back to Houston.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Orl Magic at 7:05 ET.

The Toronto Raptors Lost Game 1 of this series, 104-101 at home. That could hardly been too much of a surprise, as the Raptors fell to 1-10 in the openers of first-round series in franchise history and just 2-14 in Game 1 of any postseason series. However, what is different this year is, Toronto has Kawhi Leonard. Leonard scored 37 points in the Raptors' 111-82 Game 2 victory. He was way less than 100% in Game 3 (dealing with an illness) but he still manged 16 points and 10 rebounds. Stepping into the void was third-year forward Pascal Siakam, who scored 30 points (a career playoff high) on 13-of-20 shooting while also collecting 11 rebounds in 42 minutes, as the Raptors eked out a 98-93 win to take a 2-1 series lead.

Orlando won 13 of its final 14 regular-season home games but shot just 36.3 percent from the floor and committed 16 turnovers in Game 3. Swingman Terrence Ross scored a team-high 24 points off the bench, while center Nikola Vucevic scored 22 on 7-of-13 shooting. The Magic may have lost but Vucevic's return to scoring form in Game 3 was great news. He had averaged 20.8 points (51.8% shooting) and 12.0 rebounds during the season, but had averaged 8.5 points and 7.0 in the first two games of the series. His 22 points and 14 rebounds on Friday need to be replicated in Game 4. Staritng guards Augustin (Game 1 hero) and Fournier also need to play MUCH better, as in the two losses, the duo has combined to shoot 9 of 37 (24.3%).

Orlando may be the No. 7 seed but the Magic went 22-9 (.710) in the regular season after Jan 31. Only the Houston Rockets (24-8, .750) and Milwaukee Bucks (24-9, .727) had a better winning percentage in the NBA during that span. As noted above, the Magic won 13 of their last 14 home games. The Magic hardly played well in Game 3 but still lost by just five points. Expect a MUCH better effort here and remember, the Raptors (in their SIXTH straight postseason), are a "money-burning" 7-18 (28.0%) ATS on the road in the playoffs. Home dog barks LOUDLY in this one!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* LEGEND Play is on the Ut Jazz at 10:35 ET.

Houston at the buzzer, 112-11. Then, both Denver and Portland won the next night, dropping the Rockets to the No. 4 seed. However, Houston has shown no signs of a let down, routing the Jazz 120-90 in Game 1 and 118-98 in Game 2. "The Rockets are playing at an unbelievably high level," Jazz head coach Quin Snyder told reporters. "They're going to make plays. The adjustment to that is to just keep competing. That's the mindset that we have to have." Utah is struggling to find a rhythm on offense and in particular, the Jazz have made just 15-of-65 (23.1%) from three-point range in the first two games.

James Harden is averaging 30.5-8.5-10.5  in the first two games plus backcourt mates Gordon (16.5) and Paul (15.5) are supporting him nicely. Center Clint Capela is averaging a double-double (11.5 & 11.0) and he's been supported by fellow frontcourt players Tucker (13.5), House (9.5) and Faried (9.0 & 6.0). On the Utah side, center Gobert (16.5 & 12.) and PG Rubio (16.0) have out-performed the Jazz' best player, Donovan Mitchell (23.8-4.1-4.2 in the regular season). Mitchell has averaged just 15.0 PPG, while shooting percent, including 4 of 15 on threes. Jae Crowder was a valuable role player in the regular season (11.9 & 4.8) but he's scored just 14 points in two games, shooting 16.7% from the floor, including 2 of 13 on threes.

After watching the first two games, Houston looks unbeatable. However, is it EVER that simple? Utah's Snyder put it simply. "Our group has always been a group that's responded, and that's what we have to do. We played poorly, and we have to be better. That will be the focus." I'll add that the Jazz finished the regular season with an eight-game winning streak at home, with an average margin of victory of 14.8 PPG.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the OKC Thunder at 9:35 ET.

The Portland Trail Blazers were able to edge the OKC Thunder 103-99 in Game 1 and then had little trouble going up 2-0 in their first-round series by routing OKC 114-94 in Game 2. It will come as no surprise that the Blazers have been led by their dynamic guard duo of Lillard (29.5-4.0-5.0) and McCollum (28.5-7.0-4.0). On the OKC side, Paul George has led the Thunder by averaging 26.5 & 9.0, while PG Westbrook has added 19.0-9.5-10.5. That said, Westbrook made just 5 of 20 shots in Game 2 has been soundly outplayed by Lillard.

"I know how quickly things can change," Lillard told reporters. "I know that a series doesn't start until you win a game on the road. I also know how capable their team is. So, we've just got to maintain our focus, stay sharp in the things we've been sharp in and understand how well we played in the first game and the second game is not going to be good enough in the third game, especially on their home floor. We've got to keep our heads down and keep working." Lillard and McCollum have led the way but Enes Kanter (13.0 & 11.5) has been HUGE for Portland, as he's played OKC center Steven Adams to a standstill.

Here's what OKC must change in Game 3. The Thunder have made only 10 of 61 shots (16.4%) from three-point range. Paul George is 6 for 22 on his three-point attempts and Russell Westbrook is 1 for 10 in the series. Jerami Grant and Dennis Schroder are both 0 for 8 and Terrance Ferguson 2 for 7.It's hard to make up numbers that bad! What's more, OKC has committed 16 turnovers in each of the first two games, with Thunder head coach Billy Donovan has pointed toward the miscues as one reason for the team's stagnant offense.

OKC returned from the All Star break to go 7-13 and seemed headed for the West's No. 8 seed and a first round meeting with the Warriors. However, the Thunder won their final FIVE regular season games (4-1 ATS) to earn the No. 6 seed. OKC got what it wanted (avoiding Golden St). Tonight, the Thunder need to "step up" and avoid falling down 0-3 vs the Blazers. My bet says Westbrook responds and the Thunder do just that!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Ind Pacers 8:35 ET.

Kyrie Irving is making the most of his first playoff series with the Boston Celtics. He scored 20 points and helped lead a dominant defensive effort in a series-opening 84-74 win and then finished with 37 points, six rebounds and seven assists in Wednesday's come-from-behind 99-91 victory in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference best-of-seven matchup.

Boston trailed by 12 points with 11 minutes remaining in Game 2, before putting together a 16-0 run during a fourth quarter in which the Celtics would outscore the Pacers 31-12 for a 99-91 win. In Game 1, the Pacers led 45-38 at the half but then got outscored 26-8 in the quarter. "It's always been one quarter that kills us in the second half," Pacers forward Thaddeus Young told reporters of his team, after Indiana fell behind 2-0 in the series. "We're getting good looks and shots are not falling. ... We gotta put together a 48-minute game and we haven't been able to that."That pretty much sums it up.

Jayson Tatum scored 26 points in Wednesday's win and was the catalyst in a game-ending 10-0 surge by producing six points and one assist. Tatum is averaging 20.5 points on 54.8 percent shooting in the series but Boston could use more balanced scoring. Kyrie is averaging 28.5-5.5-7.0 but Boston needs more from the rest of its players. Indiana knows all to well about players underachieving in the series, so far. Big men Sabonis and Turner, who averaged 14.1 & 9.3 and 13.3 & 7.2 during the regular season, respectively, have been playoff "no-shows." Sabonis is averaging a woeful 4.0 PPG (7.0 RPG), while Turner has hardly been much better (6.5 & 6.5). Shooting guard Wesley Matthews (10.9 PPG in the regular season) was held to six points in Game, his second straight single-digit effort.

Boston has won five straight meetings overall with Indiana, the last four of which have come in a 20-day span. The Pacers have shot 39 percent in the series, including 31 percent on three-pointers and have totaled just 165 points in the first two games. Considering that Indiana has lost its last 10 games when the team has failed to reach triple digits (note: The Celtics have won five in a row when holding opponents under 100), the Pacers have to find a way to "score the ball." Consider this. Remember that the Celtics went up on Milwaukee with two series-opening wins at home in the first round last year, only to lose two straight on the road to let the Bucks right back in that series. Boston did go on to win that in seven games but the Celtics finished a pathetic 1-7 on the road in the 2018 postseason. Pacers get back in it here.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the SA Spurs at 9:05 ET.

Denver was an NBA-best 34-7 at home, after going 26-4 in their final 30 regular season games at Pepsi Center but the SA Spurs, who had gone 0-6 SU (0-6 or 0-5-1 ATS) against Western Conference playoff teams on the road since the calendar turned to 2019, would win Game 1 last Saturday by the score of 101-96. In Tuesday's Game 2, the Nuggets found themselves down 19 points (78-59) late in the third quarter, headed for an 0-2 hole in the series. However, PG Jamal Murray, who made critical mistakes down the stretch in Game 1 and was dreadful for the first three quarters of Game 2, erupted to score 21 of his 24 points in the fourth quarter of the comeback victory. Murray missed all eight of his field-goal attempts over the first three quarters but coach Michael Malone stuck with him and he was a blistering 8-of-9 shooting as Denver outscored the Spurs 39-23 over the final 12 minutes (55-27, after that 78-59 deficit).

"We don't quit," reserve guard Malik Beasley told reporters. "Playoff experience matters, but as long as you play hard and play together, that's what matters on the court." Guard Gary Harris scored 23 points on 10-of-16 shooting in Game 2 and is averaging 21.5 points in the series. Center Jokic, who led Denver is scoring (20.0), rebounding (10.8) and assists (7.2) on the season, added 21-13-8. Veteran PF Millsap had 20 points, one of four 20-point scorers for Denver in Game 2. I've noted often that Denver is arguably the NBA's deepest team. Denver has FIVE players averaging in double digits plus four more are averaging between 5.8 and 8.7 PPG (does not include "IT" who has played just 12 games this season, after playing in two of the team's six April games and hasn't played in the series).

As for the Spurs, it was a big missed opportunity. "We got Game 1. We fought, tried to get Game 2, but we got homecourt shifting our way," Spurs guard DeMar DeRozan told reporters. "Now, it's on us to go home and do what we need to do, understand if we take care of home, like we've been doing all year, we can come back here with an opportunity. We feel great where we're at. We understood it wasn't going to be a cake walk." Aldridge (21.3 & 9.2) and DeRozan (21.2-6.0-6.2) were the Spurs' "one-two punch" during the regular season and although the Spurs can't quite meet the overall depth and strength of Denver's bench, the Spurs still own quite a impressive group of role players. In Game 1, White had 16 points (he's averaging 16.5 in the series), Forbes (15 points) and Gay (14 points). Then in Game 2, DeRozan poured in 31 points,Aldridge added 24 and PG D White 17 but no other player scored in double digits.

Let's not forget that the Spurs led Tuesday's game from the middle of the first quarter to the middle of the fourth (often by double digits). The Spurs now return home and have to be more than just a little angry that they are not up 2-0. What better head coach could a team ask for in this situation than Pop. The Nuggets have to feel as if they are playing with 'house money' after stealing Game 2 bu the task ahead is a formidable one. Denver has lost 13 straight games in San Antonio, a streak that dates back to March 4, 2012. Even of more importance is the following. The Nuggets finished the regular season going a pathetic 1-10 SU on the road vs Western Conference playoff teams since Dec 1. Lay the more than reasonable points with the Spurs.

Good luck...Larry

My NBA 10* Game of the Week is on the Den Nuggets at 9:05 ET.

Denver surprised this season by ending a five-season playoff drought. In fact, the Nuggets battled the Golden State Warriors until the final week for the West's top-seed, before finishing 54-28 to earn the No. 2 seed. As for the Spurs, they were inside the playoff 'cut line' almost the entire season (although not by much) and finished 48-34 (No. 7 seed) to make the team's 22nd straight postseason. The veteran Spurs led for most of Game 1 but the Nuggets were down just five with 2:24 left and had a chance to take the lead but Jamal Murray misfired on an 18-footer with 9.4 seconds left. The Nuggets also had an opportunity to force overtime but Spurs rookie PG Derrick White stole the ball from Murray with 2.1 seconds remaining and hit two free throws with 1.3 seconds left to seal the 101-96 victory.

All-Star power forward LaMarcus Aldridge led the Spurs in scoring (21.3) and rebounding (9.2) during the season and his 'partner in crime' was shooting guard DeMar DeRozan (21.2-6.0-6.2). DeRozan had 18 points and 12 rebounds but made just 6 of 17 shots. He was one of five San Antonio players to score in double digits. Aldridge contributed 15 & 8 but was just 6-of-19 from the floor. Derrick White (16 points), Bryn Forbes (15 points) and Rudy Gay (14 points) picked up the slack and shot a combined 19 of 28 (67.9%).

The Spurs held Denver to 42 percent shooting and Denver didn't score a point in transition. San Antonio held Denver center Nikola Jokic (20.0-10.8-7.2) to 10 points by double-teaming the All-Star center when he was in the low post. However, he added 14 rebounds and 14 assists in Game 1 to become the fourth player in NBA history to record a triple-double in his first career playoff game. Jamal Murray (18.2-4.2-4.8) had 17 points but was just 8-of-24 from the floor (33.3%), including missing that dreadful wide-open shot late, that might have been the difference between winning and losing.

Denver was an NBA-best 34-7 at home during the regular season, going 26-4 in their final 30 regular season games at Pepsi Center. Meanwhile, the Spurs had gone 0-6 SU (0-6 or 0-5-1 ATS) against Western Conference playoff teams on the road since the calendar turned to 2019, before winning Game 1. It's hard to see White, Forbes and Gay  combing for 45 points on 67.9% shooting, again. Also, will the Spurs go 7-of-15 from three-point range like in Game 1, with Denver going 6-of-28 (21.4%)? Denver is arguably the NBA's deepest team and with better shooting performances from Jokic and Murray, should win rather easily.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Tor Raptors at 8:05 ET.

The Toronto Raptors have been well-known for their postseason failures but still, the Orlando Magic's 104-101 win in this Eastern Conference first-round matchup was a considered a stunning upset. Then again, we shouldn't have been surprised. After all, the Raptors are now 1-10 in the openers of first-round series in franchise history and just 2-14 in Game 1 of any postseason series. As for Orlando, the Magic may be the East's No. 7 seed, but they went 22-9 (.710) in the regular season after Jan 31. Only the Houston Rockets (24-8, .750) and Milwaukee Bucks (24-9, .727) had a better winning percentage in the NBA during that span.

Orlando's vet PG Augustin was 9-of-13 shooting, including 4-of-5 from three-point range, while pouring in 25 points in Game 1. His three-pointer with 4.2 seconds left was the game-winner, after he had tied the game with a layup. "These last few months, especially since after All-Star break, I think we have one of the best records in the NBA," said Augustin after Game 1. "It's just a mindset that we came in with. Our goal was to make the playoffs, and just not make it, we want to make noise and win a series or two. We feel like we can, we believe in ourselves, coach believes in us and I feel like that's all we need to get some good wins and build momentum." Orlando won with tits two best players, Vucevic (20.8 & 12.0) and Gordon (16.0 & 7.4)  combing to make just 6 of 24 shots (.25.0%). The Magic's perimeter shooting made took up teh slacke, as the etam made 14 of 29 three-pointers (48.3%).

The Raptors were confused on Augustin's decisive play, as neither small forward Kawhi Leonard nor center Marc Gasol made a move to contest his shot and the end result was a surprising setback. "It was a mistake made on that play," Gasol told reporters of the missed assignment. "We mis-communicated and he made a good shot." Kawhi Leonard (26.6 & 7.3) scored 25 points in his first playoff outing with the Raptors, while forward Pascal Siakam (16.9 & 6.9) also stood out with 24 points and nine rebounds. However, Raptors PG Kyle Lowry (14.2-4.8-8.7) missed all SEVEN of his shots (0-for-6 from three-point range), while going scoreless in the opener.

OK, so the Raptors are in a familiar spot, as the fell to 2-14 in Game 1 of any postseason series in franchise history. However, Toronto has never had a player like Leonard, who won an NBA title with the Spurs in 2014, when he was named Finals MVP. The Raptors were 32-9 SU at home during the season and NO WAY the Magic hit 48% from three-point range again. Magic 'return to earth' in this one plus expect a huge bounce-back from Lowry. Lay it.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Phi 76ers at 8:00 ET.

The Brooklyn Nets finished 42-40 to earn the East's No. 6 seed. It's the team's first playoff appearance since 2015, with the team entering this season off years of 21, 20 and 28 wins. Brooklyn guards D'Angelo Russell, Caris LeVert and Spencer Dinwiddie combined for 67 points on Saturday, leading the Nets to a 111-102 victory in Philadelphia over the 76ers to seize homecourt advantage away from the No. 3 seed. The 76ers saw Jimmy Butler score 36 points and Joel Embiid add 22 and 15 rebounds in his return from a knee issue,  but they were a woeful 3-of-25 (12.0%) from three-point range.

LeVert paced a 59-point attack for the Brooklyn's bench combined for 59 points in Game 1, getting 23 very productive minutes (23 points) from LeVert, roughly two months into his return from a dislocated foot. D'Angelo Russell started slowly by missing 12 of his first 15 shots but led the Nets with 26 points. The key to Game 1 for Brooklyn was its reserves outscoring Philly's by a 59-26 margin by adding 23 points. Four Brooklyn reserves played at least 20 minutes. Butler was terrific but while and Embiid had 22 & 15, it was 'quiet' 22 as he missed 10 of 15 shots. He also seemed to shay away from the physical play of Brooklyn's big men. Philadelphia saw its other three starters, Tobias Harris (18.2 & 7.9), JJ Redick (18.1) and Ben Simmons (16.9-8.8-7.7) combined for only 18 points on 8 of 23 shooting (34.8%).

Philly heard plenty of boos in Game 1 (the 76ers trailed by as many as 16 points) and need to start strong in Game 2.  The Nets are back in the postseason for the first time since 2015 and a win would mark the first time the team has held a 2-0 lead in a series since sweeping the New York Knicks in the opening round of the 2004 postseason. Philly was 31-10 at home during the regular season by averaging 117.9 PPG. I just don't see Brooklyn's reserves can possibly match their Game 1 performance plus expect Philly's starters to rebound. Philly shot 35.9% (8th) from three-point range on the season, so NO WAY we'll see another 3-of-25 effort. Also, Philly missed 13 FTs in Game 1. 76ers bounce back in a big way in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insideris on the Hou Rockets at 9:30 ET.

The Houston Rockets won an NBA-best 67 games last season and led the Warriors 3-2 in the Western Conference finals, before Chris Paul missed Games 6 and 7, which Golden St won. While last year's MVP James Harden had another MVP-like season this year (36.1-6.6-7.5), the Rockets finished a much more modest 53-29, leaving them with the No. 4 seed in the West. In fact, the Rockets had the No. 3 seed in its sights in their final game of the regular season, before OKC came back from a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit to nip Houston at the buzzer, 112-11.The Jazz followed last year's 48-34 record by going 50-32 this season, entering the playoffs as the West's No. 5 seed for the second straight year (Utah ousted No. 4 seed OKC last year in six games). The Rockets then handled the Jazz fairly easily in the second round of last season's playoffs, taking the series 4-1 with Houston's wins coming by 14, 21, 13 and 10 points. The teams split four regular-season meetings this season, with each team recording one road victory.

The Jazz have an excellent starting-five in leading scorer Mitchell (23.8-4.1-4.,2), PG Rubio (12.7 & 6.1 APG), swingman Ingles (12.1-4.0-5.7), PF Favors (11.8 & 7.4) and center Gobert (15.9 & 12.9). However, Favors missed five of the team's last six games and Rubio (quadriceps) missed the final three games of the regular season (he is expected to give it a go in Game 1). Mitchell sat out the team's final regular season with a back issue and while it's hard to imagine he's not playing, he is being listed as questionable. Also, Korver (9.1 PPG off the bench) has missed the last six games with a knee injury.

As noted, Harden could win a second straight MVP and is joined by Gordon (16.2) and Paul (15.6-4.6-8.2) to give Houston quite the guard trio. Both House (9.4) and Green (9.2) are also dangerous perimeter players (swingmen), who have been known to "light it up." Then there is center Clint Capela, who averaged career highs in points (16.6) and rebounds (12.7). He missed 15 games with a thumb injury (team went 5-1) but after he returned and after Houston lost his first game back (right after the All Star break), the Rockets won 20 of their final 24 games. Another major addition was PF/C Faried, who in 25 games down the stretch with Houston, averaged 12.9 & 8.2.

The Jazz have too many health-related question marks entering this series to take them in Game 1. Houston's only losses in their last 24 games came by two points at home to Golden St, by one-point in OT at Memphis, by six points at Milwaukee (owners of the NBA's best record) and then that one-point disaster in Game 82 at OKC. The Rockets want that rematch with Golden St and will get it a round earlier than they had hoped but first they need to take care of business vs the Jazz. I always take the playoffs (and each series) one game at a time and off of last year's results, I really like the Rockets here in Game 1.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Por Blazers at 3:30 ET.

The Blazers opened March 1-3 but won 14 of their last 17 games to clinch the No. 3 in the West at 53-29 (edged the Rockets in a tie-breaker). The Thunder seemed headed for the West's No. 8 seed (and a first-round series with the Warriors) but OKC ended the season on a five-game winning streak to finish 49-33, one game better than the Spurs (No. 7) and Clippers (No. 8). The series will feature star PGs Damian Lillard (25.8-4.6-8.9) and Russell Westbrook (22.9-11.1-10.7).  Lillard averaged 34.8 points and 7.8 assists while Westbrook averaged 29.5 points, 10.0 rebounds and 8.8 assists in the teams' four regular season games. However, OKC took all FOUR of the regular season meetings.

Paul George (28.0-8.2-4.1), not Westbrook, led the team in scoring this season. However, he is struggling with right shoulder soreness. He insists that he will play in the opener. George was superb against Portland in the regular season with averages of 38 points and 10.5 rebounds and said the postseason is no time to sit with an injury. "It's playoff time, so it's more than this, it's about being out there with my guys," George told reporters. "As much as I can get it a hundred (percent) as possible, or close to it, you can expect me out there Sunday." Portland has a key player with an injury question as well. Lillard's backcourt partner CJ McCollum (21.0) missed 10 games late in the season with a knee injury and didn't fare well upon his return, averaging 10.0 PPG  in two games before being rested in the season finale. He made just 8-of-26 shots (30.1%), including 2-of-11 form three-point range. "I feel good, I feel like I'm ready to play, looking forward to the playoffs," McCollum told reporters. "I'm glad I was able to get back and get a couple of games in, get a few game minutes in before the playoffs start. ... My wind is fine, no minutes restrictions."

The season-ending ending injury to Portland center Nurkic (15.6 & 10.4) was expected to be a 'killer,' but Enes Kanter has been a 'savior,' averaging 13.1 & 8.6 in his 23 games for the Blazers (team went 18-5 in those game). Portland will rely on Kanter to combat OKC center Steven Adams (13.8 & 9.5), his former Thunder teammate. A closer look at OKC's closing five-game winning streak revels wins over the Lakers, Pistons and T-wolves (no big deal there), the team's miracle comeback from 14 down vs Houston and a season-ending win at Milwaukee, when the Bucks rested all their starters. Just prior to that stretch, OKC had gone 7-13 SU and a money-burning 5-15 ATS in its previous 20 games. As noted above, Portland closed its season on a 14-3 SU run, including eight straight home wins. Average winning margin in Portland's last 14 victories was 11.0 PPG. Forget the regular season, Portland was 32-9 SU at home, averaging 118.2 PPG with an average winning margin of just shy of nine points per. The Blazers win this one with "room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NBA Playoff Opener is on the Den Nuggets at 10:35 ET.

The 48-34 San Antonio Spurs are playoff regulars, as 2019 marks the team's 22nd consecutive postseason appearance (it's the longest streak among the four major North American sports). As for the 54-28 Denver Nuggets, they lost a chance to make the postseason last year when they lost in OT at Minnesota in the season's final game. However, Denver surprised this season by battling the Golden State Warriors until the final week for the West's top-seed. The second-seeded Nuggets will be ending a five-year playoff drought when they host the Spurs in Saturday's opener of the Western Conference first-round series.

The seventh-seeded Spurs enter this series having won their last three games and six of their past nine (big deal?). "We ended off strong," guard DeMar DeRozan (21.2-6.0-6.2) told reporters. "Our confidence is high. ... I think we've got our mindset where it's supposed to be heading into the playoffs." All-Star power forward LaMarcus Aldridge, led the Spurs in scoring (21.3) and rebounding (9.2) during the season, plus averaged 22.3 points and shot 55.7 percent from the floor in four games against Denver this season (home team won all four). San Antonio has two guards who finished among the top five in three-pointers by a reserve in Patty Mills (third with 155) and Marco Belinelli (fifth with 145) but San Antonio's overall depth is NOT what it used to be.

In contrast, Denver is arguably the NBA's deepest team. All-Star center Nikola Jokic will be the focal point after posting the second-most double-doubles (56) and triple-doubles (12) in franchise history,. He led the team in scoring (20.0), rebounding (10.8) and assists (7.2) on the season. PG Murray has been steady as it goes (18.2-4.2-4.8) and behind those two,  Denver has FIVE players averaging in double digits plus five more, averaging between 5.7 and 8.7 PPG (including "IT" who has played just 12 games this season, after playing in two of the team's six April games).

Sure, the Spurs are the more experienced team and Pop is Pop but, this is NOT your father's Spurs. "There's an excitement (about the playoffs)," Nuggets head coach Michael Malone told reporters. "This is a new challenge for our guys. We're going to embrace it, we're looking forward to it. We'll see what we can do." Denver was an NBA-best 34-7 at home, after going 26-4 in their final 30 regular season games at Pepsi Center. One last thing. The Spurs have gone 0-6 SU (0-6 or 0-5-1 ATS) against Western Conference playoff teams on the road since the calendar turned to 219. Lay the points!

Good luck...Larry