The third 9* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on USC (10:45 EST).

The 6-2 USC Trojans are at Arizona State to take on the 4-3 Sun Devils and in my opinion, this one favors the visiting side.

USC won’t be playing in the College Football Playoff after last week’s 49-14 loss at Note Dame, but the team will be eager to bounce back and take out its frustrations tonight. 

Trojans’ QB Sam Darnold was 20 of 28 for 229 yards and two TD’s. Darnold has been decent, not great this season by throwing for 2,292 yards, 17 TD’s and ten INT’s. Note that one of his best games of his career came against Arizona State last year, finishing with 352 yards and three TD’s in the 41-20 win last year. 

The Sun Devils have won two straight, most recently a 30-10 victory at Utah last Saturday. Arizona State’s defense looked pretty good in the win, posting four INT’s. Note though that previous to that the Sun Devils had forced just five turnovers on the season.

I’ll point out as well that USC is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 following a SU loss, while Arizona State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after scoring 40 or more points in an OT victory in its previous outing.

I like Darnold to have another big game against this suspect Sun Devils’ secondary. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Washington State (9:30 EST).

The 7-1 Washington State Cougars are in Arizona to take on the 5-2 Wildcats and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Note that when these teams met last year, WSU smashed Arizona 69-7. 

WSU bounced back from its first loss of the year to post an impressive 28-0 win over Colorado last week. QB Luke Falk was 17 of 34 for 197 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s. 

But as good as Falk looked, it was the Cougars’ defense which really impressed, a unit which is now conceding just 274 yards on average per game.

Arizona looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after its 45-44 double OT win over Cal on the road in its latest outing. RB Zach Green had 130 yards on 20 carries, while QB Khalil Tate had 137 rushing yards and a score, along with 166 passing yards, two TD’s and a pick through the air. 

Arizona looked horrible defensively though, conceding 473 yards, allowing Cal 31 first downs and to convert on 13 of 19 third down opportunities. 

I’ll point out as well that Washington State is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 following an ATS victory and 7-3 ATS in its last ten road games against a team with a winning home record, while Arizona is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 conference contests.

The Wildcats’ offense is in for a stiff test today after last week’s big performance. All signs point a comfortable cover for the Cougars in my opinion.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Memphis Grizzlies (8:05 EST).

Houston is 5-1 and comes in off a big 109-93 win at Charlotte just last night. Memphis will look to take advantage of a tired and complacent Rockets team and build off its latest 96-91 victory at home over Dallas on Thursday. 

And if recent history is any precedence, then the Grizz have to be liking their chances, as note that Memphis scored the 98-90 road win over the Rockets back on October 23rd.

Houston averages 105.8 PPG and concedes 102.8. With last night’s victory at Charlotte, the Rockets are already 4-0 on the road to start the year. Can anyone say letdown spot here? Not surprisingly, James Harden is leading the charge with 26.4 PPG, while Eric Gordon contributes 24.6. 

Memphis averages 100.4 PPG and concdes just 95.2. Marc Gasol averages 25 points and 10.8 boards per game, while Mike Conley adds 19.4 points and 4.2 assists per night. 

With a night off before a “cream puff” at home against Philadelphia, it’s not too hard to imagine the Rockets also getting caught “looking ahead” to that one. 

I’m banking on the Grizzlies taking advantage. Play on Memphis.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Texas Tech (8:00 EST).

The 4-3-1 Texas Tech Red Raiders are 5-2 ATS, while the No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners are 6-1 SU and 3-4 ATS. 

The Sooners enter off a 42-35 road win over K-State, while Texas Tech comes in off two straight losses, most recently a 31-13 setback to Iowa State this past weekend (note that Oklahoma also lost to Iowa State 38-31 on Oct. 7th.)

Texas Tech QB Nic Shimonek was 31 of 41 for 207 yards, no TD’s and a pick against Iowa State last week. It was a rare “off” game for Shimonek though, who already has 2,341 passing yards, 18 TD’s and only five INT’s this season. 

Oklahoma gave up 412 yards of offense last week. RB Rodney Anderson had 147 rushing yards and a score, while QB Baker Mayfield had 410 yards, two TD’s and an INT. 

From a trend based stand point, this one highly favors the visitors, as note that the Red Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last seven after two or more consecutive SU losses and 11-7 ATS in its last 18 when playing the role of underdog, while Oklahoma is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range.

I think that Shimonek will bounce back here and I look for him to match pace with Mayfield. This is a few too many points, play on Texas Tech.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 9* Oddsmaker’s Error on Tennessee (7:30 EST).

The 3-4 Tennessee Volunteers need to string some wins together if they have any shot at making a bowl. 

The 5-2 Kentucky Wildcats are on the cusp of bowl inclusion, but I think they are going to struggle against this determined Vols side. 

Tennessee enters off a humbling 45-7 loss to Alabama on the road and it’s now 0-4 in conference play. 

Kentucky comes in off a 45-7 loss at Mississippi State, dropping it to 2-2 in league play. 

If recent history is any precedence though, then Tennessee has to be liking its chances for a conference victory today, because when these teams met last year it was the Vols that pulled away for the 49-36 victory. 

So far Tennessee averages just 19.6 PPG, while conceding 26.9 PPG (ranked fifth against the pass in allowing only 158.1 YPG through the air.)

The Vols have been atrocious against the run the last few weeks, but they catch a break here because the Wildcats are a pass first offense. And that falls right into the wheel house of their defensive strength. 

Kentucky averages 24.6 PPG and allows 24.7. With a home game against a horrible Mississippi team on the horizon, the Wildcats stil have chances to punch their ticket. 

Both team’s offenses struggled last week, but note that the Vols have performed extremely well in this spot for bettors, going 3-1 ATS in their last four as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Kentucky is just 7-11 ATS in its last 18 after playing a conference game and only 7-13 ATS in its last 20 against the conference. 

Tennessee coach Butch Jones’ job is on the line here and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset obviously, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the hungry Volunteers to keep this one close enough down the stretch to comfortably sneak in through the back door once it’s all said and done.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on Vanderbilt (4:00 EST).

The 3-4 Vanderbilt Commodores are just 2-5 ATS, while the 5-2 Gamecocks are 4-2-1 ATS thus far. 

Vanderbilt though is 0-4 in SEC action and I think it’s going to be the much “nungrier” team overall today. Note that Vandy plays with revenge here as well after it fell 13-10 to South Carolina last season. 

Both teams come in off their repsective bye weeks.

Commodores’ QB Kyle Shurmur was 13 of 27 for 174 yards with two TD’s and a pick in his team’s most recent setback to Ole Miss. RB Ralph Webb was a bright spot in that one with 163 yards on 23 attempts along with two major scores of his own.

Overall Shurmur has been strong this year with 1,331 passing yards, 14 TD’s and just two INT’s to this point. 

The Gamecocks’ defense is their strong point, allowing only 19.3 PPG. That defense faces a stiff test today in Shurmur though. 

South Carolina QB Jake Bentley was 15 of 24 for 129 yards in the win over Tennessee, while AJ Turner had 86 rushing yards on 14 carries. 

I’ll point out though that Vanderbilt has performed extremly well in this spot for bettors, going 2-1 ATS in its last three as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range, while South Carolina has struggled in this position by going just 1-3 ATS in its last four against a school with a losing record.

I think Vanderbilt’s offense puts the home side to the test this afternoon. Grab as many points as you can, play on Vanderbilt.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK is on North Carolina (12:00 EST).

The 6-0 Miami Hurricanes are in UNC to take on the 1-7 Tar Heels and while I’m not calling for an outright upset, I do think that the Hurricanes will come in a tiny bit complacent, leaving the back door open just wide enough for the humbled Tar Heels to sneak in through down the stretch.

Miami already has four conference wins. The Hurricanes have so far been a bit “lucky” perhaps though, as they have just one fumble and three INT’s total on the year. Miami also has 12 takeaways of its own. 

The Hurricanes’ offense has suffered a big loss though with an injury to top RB Mark Walton last week (had a 7.6 yards per carry average.)

UNC’s record is terrible, but the competition it’s played against to this point has been considerable, with all seven losses coming against big-time schools. 

So far the Heels are allowing an average of 34.6 PPG, while the offense has also struggled.

But good news for UNC fans sees the return of starting QB Chazz Surratt, who has been out with injury. Backup Brandon Harris had five INT’s last weekend. 

I’ll point out as well that Miami is interestingly 0-4 ATS in its last four after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in its previous game, while UNC is 5-1 ATS in its last six in this series.

With Surratt coming back, the Tar Heels get a big mental boost this weekend. 

The Hurricanes on the other hand have a game at home against the 6-1 Hokies next Saturday, making this not only a potential “letdown” spot, but also a “look ahead” spot for the visitors as well.

It’s a trap of epic proportions for Miami on Saturday afternoon. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* SItuational Stunner is on Florida State (8:00 EST).

The 2-4 Florida State Seminoles are 0-4-2 ATS. The 4-4 Boston College Eagles are 5-3 ATS. 

FSU needs to immediatley start stringing some wins together if it has any shot at making a 36th straight bowl appearance and in my opinion, this is the perfect opponent to get untracked against.

The Seminoles come in off a 31-28 loss at home to Louisville on Saturday. QB James Blackman had 248 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s. 

And if recent history is any precedence, then FSU head coach Jumbo Fisher has to be liking his chances today as his team has won three in a row at Boston College and seven straight in the series overall. 

BC looks primed for a letdown in my opinion as well. After giving up 83 points in consecutive losses to Notre Dame and Clemson, the Eagles have won three of four, most recently routing Virginia 41-10 on Saturday.

Boston College QB Anthony Brown had 275 yards and three TD’s. Previous to that though Brown had completed just 51.2 percent of his passes with seven TD’s.

Losing breeds desperation and winning leads to complacency. 

BC has been held to seven or fewer points in four of its last seven setbacks to Florida State. The Seminoles’ defense is a strength still and I think it’s going to be a difference maker today as well. 

Additionally I’ll point out that Florida State is 4-2 ATS in its last six off a loss against a conference rival, while Boston College is 0-7 ATS in its last seven against teams with losing records.

I think Blackman can match Brown and as stated above, I like FSU to step up this week on the defensive side in this favorable matchup. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Baltimore Ravens (8:25 EST).

The 4-2 Miami Dolphins are coming off an epic 31-28 win at the Atlanta Falcons. In that win they lost starting QB Jay Cutler to injury and were led to victory by backup Matt Moore. 

The Ravens meanwhile are just 3-4 and they’ll be eager to get back into the winners circle after falling 24-16 at Minnesota this past weekend. 

As mentioned off the top, Moore came in to replace Cutler last week and he’d go for 188 yards, two TD’s and a pick. RB Jay Ajayi though had just 51 yards on 23 attempts. 

The Fish are ranked 32nd in total offense this year with just 261.8 yards per game accumulated on average. Miami has made up for it on the defensive end though, giving up 18.7 PPG thus far.

Baltimore QB Joe Flacco was 27 of 39 for 186 yards with one TD and no picks last weekend. The Ravens are now dealing with injuries to the WR position and the unit is putting up just 18.3 PPG this year. The defense is poor against the run, but great against the pass (allowing 189.3 YPG in the air thus far.)

I’ll point out though that Miami is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 off a divisional game and just 12-14 ATS in its last 26 as an underdog, while Baltimore is 4-2 ATS in its last six as a home favorite of three points or less.

Moore looked “ok” last weekend, but this is a difficult place to play and the short week won’t help matters. There’s big time pressure on Moore to perform and I think he’s going to stumble here. The correct call is on Flacco and the hungry home side. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Atlanta Hawks (8:00 EST).

The 1-3 Atlanta Hawks are in Chicago to take the 0-3 Bulls and in my opinion, all signs point to a cover for the visiting side.

The Hawks opened the year with a win but have since dropped three straight, most recently a 104-93 setback at Miami on Monday. The Bulls can empathize, as they’ve lost three straight as well, most recently a 119-112 setback on the road in Cleveland. 

So far ATL is ranked 21st in scoring in the early going with 103.3 PPG, while ranked 20th in scoring defense in conceding 110. Kent Bazemore and Taurean Prince each had 20 points in the Hawks most recent setback. 

Chicago is averaging 96.3 PPG, while allowing 107.7. Justin Holiday had 25 points in the Bulls’ most recent loss. 

I’ll point out that ATL is 4-1 ATS in its last five agains the Central division, while Chicago is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after allowing 100 points or more in its previous contest and just 1-5 ATS in its last six against the Eastern Conference. 

Mirotic and Portis are still out for Chicago, making the Hawks the deeper overall team tonight. I like Atlanta to take advantage of that fact and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. 

Good luck…Larry

My 10* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH is on Ball State (7:00 EST).

Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle” a little on the money line? Of course not. I simply feel this is a few too many points to be giving up in this situation.

The 6-1 Toledo Rockets are at Ball State to take on the 2-5 Cardinals. Toledo looks primed for a bit of a letdown here though in my opinion after three straight wins. 

Conversely, it’s going to be all hands on deck for the Cardinals as they try in vain to reach the six win plateau with just a handful of games remaining and on the heels of four straight losses (after starting the year 2-1.)

Toledo QB Logan Woodside had 304 yards and five TD’s in his team’s 48-21 win over Akron. Prevoius to that though he’d posted just one major score over two combined games. RB Terry Swanson also looked good with 123 yards on 20 carries.

The Cardinals will be desperate to get off the schneid, as they haven’t scored a TD since late September. Ball State had to transition to senior QB Jack Milas after stater Riley Neal went down with injury in a loss to WKU earlier in the season:

“This is a fragile football team right now,” Ball State head coach Mike Neu admitted after the loss. “As much as I hate to admit it, we are struggling to overcome some of the injuries. It’s not for lack of want to, guys are working hard, but we’re doing some things that are uncharacteristic for our football team.”

With back-to-back road games though, it’s not too hard to imagine the Rockets getting caught “looking ahead/past” their lowly opponent today.

Additionally I’ll point out that Toledo has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors, interestingly going 0-2 ATS in its last two “Thursday night” contests. Ball State has been a bad team for a long time and it’s hard to find any positive ATS stats to back up this play, however take note that it’s 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring ten points or less in its previous contest.

I think the home side keeps this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back down the stretch. Play on Ball State.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Wizards (10:35 EST).

With a game at Golden State up next, I think the Wizards leave everything on the floor tonight as the team tries to move to 4-0 to open a season for the first time since 1974. 

Washington most recently defeated Denver 109-104 on Monday, while the Lakers enter off a 119-112 setback at home to New Orleans on Sunday.

So far the Wizards are averaging 115 PPG this year. Bradley Beal averages 23.3 PPG, while John Wall averages 24.3 PPG and 10.0 assists. Forward Otto Porter addes 18.3 points and 9.0 boards. 

The Lakers struggled with the Pelicans’ big men and they’ll have their hands full again tonight. All eyes will once again be on LaVar Ball for LA, he’s so far averaging 9.4 points, 8 boards and 12 assists per game. 

I’ll point out though that the Lakers are just 14-27 ATS in their last 41 against good offensive teams which score 106-plus points per contest, while the Wizards are 20-16 ATS in their last 36 against poor defensive teams which allow 106 points per game.

Wall and Beal are on a mission right now and won’t be “looking past” the Lakers today. Instead, this is a golden opportunity for Washington before a tough game on Friday night in Golden State. I’m laying the points.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Oklahoma City Thunder (8:05 EST).

The Pacers are primed for a letdown here after their epic 130-107 beatdown win over the Wolves as a ten point dog on the road last night.

Conversely, it’s going to be all hands on deck for the 1-2 Thunder today, who come into this one off consecutive losses, including a 115-113 setback to Minnesota in their latest.

The Thunder actually had 38 points in the fourth quarter in the loss against the Wolves, but it wasn’t enough after a shaky start to the contest. Russell Westbrook had 31 points in that one. Paul George though will be looking to do some damage against his former team though and after posting just 14 points in the setback to Minnesota. 

I’ll point out though that Indiana is just 5-12-1 ATS in its last 18 when playing on zero days rest, while the OKC Thunder are 7-1 ATS in their last eight against the Eastern conference. 

Indiana has allowed an average of 119 points so far this year and it comes in contented after last night’s upset win. The Thunder on the other hand will be eager for a big performance after a slow start to the season. No need to overthink this one, play on OKC.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (7:35 EST).

Chicago gave Cleveland more of a fight than expected last night, but the Cavs would pull away down the stretch for the 119-112 victory in the end.

Brooklyn also played last night and it’ll limp home after falling 125-121 in Orlando.

LeBron James is not surprisingly leading the way so far for the Cavs this year with 25 points, 8.3 boards and 6.3 assists per game. Kevin Love chips in 17 points and 10.3 boards per contest. Cleveland wasn’t the best in back-to-back scenarios last season, going just 7-11, but clearly it catches a break here facing the lowly Nets, who also come in off a game just last night.

The Nets are second in the league in scoring offense and second to last in scoring defense. Brooklyn’s struggles in back-to-back games was much worse that the Cavs last year as it would go just 1-13 in such instances, allowing an average of 115.6 points in those contests.

I’ll point out as well that Cleveland is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 on the road, while Brooklyn is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games against a team with a winning road record.

I think the Cavs’ veteran experience in the second game of the back to back situation proves to be the difference tonight. Lay the points with confidence, play on Cleveland.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the New Orleans Pelicans (10:05 EST).

The 1-2 New Orleans Pelicans will look to use their size to score an upset win over the smaller 2-1 Portland Trailblazers today.

New Orleans comes in off a 119-112 road win over the Lakers on Saturday, while the Blazers look poised for another letdown here in my opinion after their first loss of the season in a 113-110 setback at Milwaukee. 

If recent history is any precedence though, then the Pelicans have to be liking their chances tonight as they’d go on to take three of four in the series last season.

So far New Orleans is averaging 110 PPG, while allowing 114.3. Anthony Davis is averaging 31.7 PPG and 17.3 RPG. DeMarcus Cousins is posting 28.3 points and 11.7 boards per contest. 

Portland is so far averaging 116 points and conceding just 95. Damian Lillard is averaging 23.7 points and 5.3 assists per game while CJ McCollum has posted 27 PPG thus far. 

I’ll also point out that the Blazers are a poor 2-6 ATS in their last eight against good offensive teams which average 106 plus points per contest, while the Pelicans are 23-20 ATS in their last 43 in the same position.

The duo of Davis and Cousins is a considerable one and now it appears as if their supporting cast is finally starting to wake up after the convincing road win over the up-start Lakers. The Blazers got out to a quick start, but looked exposed in the loss to the Bucks.

While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for New Orleans to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Washington Redskins (8:30 EST).

The 3-2 Washington Redskins are in Philadelphia to take on the 5-1 Eagles on Monday night and while I obvoiusly wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the hungry visiting side to at the very least, take this one down to the wire.

The Eagles most recently beat the Panthers 28-23, while the Redskins are coming off a 26-24 home win over the 49ers last Sunday.

Note that this is a revenge game after Philadelphia scored the victory in the first meeting between the team’s this year, a 30-17 win back on September 10th.

Last week Redskins’ QB Kirk Cousins was 25 of 37 for 330 yards, two TD’s and a pick. Washington looked a little flat footed coming out of its bye week, but managed to pull off the win in the end. 

So far the Skins have been getting the job done on the ground by committee, averaging 122.8 YPG thus far. Defensively Washington looks solid as well, allowing just 316 total yards per game, including only 88 rushing.

The Eagles have been getting great play from QB Carson Wentz, who now has 1,584 yards, 13 TD’s and just three INT’s. While Philadelhpia is stout against the run (just 65.7 YPG), Cousins and company definitely catch a break today in facing the Eagles’ 29th ranked pass defense, which allows 273.5 YPG.

Additionally I’ll point out that Philadelphia is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 against the division and only 1-3 ATS in its last four as a home favorite of 3.5 to seven points, while Washington is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 on the road and 6-4 ATS in its last ten as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. 

I think Cousins has a big day against this pathetic Eagles’ secondary. 

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:25 EST).

The 3-2 Seattle Seahawks will look to take advantage of a depleted New York Giants team that could come in contented and flat-footed here after finally geting the monkey off its back in last week’s Sunday nighter.

The Hawks went into their bye week off consecutive victories over the Colts and Rams, while the Giants got off the schneid with a victory in Denver this past weekend.

Seattle has looked signficantly better after a shaky start to the season, but with an extra week to prepare for this one, I believe that Russell Wilson and company are going to have a big night. 

Wilson is a time management master and he’s going to be able to keep his offense on the field of play as long as possible today, so as to keep the Giants’ Eli Manning off of it.

The Giants needed their defense to step up big last week and it did. Manning was adequate, but I think he’s going to struggle against the Seahawks elite defensive unit. 

New York has become completely one dimensional because of some key recent injuries and this is not a favorable defensive matchup for it whatsoever.

I’ll point out as well that Seattle is interestingly 5-2 ATS in its last seven games played in the month of October, while New York is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a victory.

The Giants won last week despite only posting 266 yards of offense. That’s simply not going to get it done against this rested/focused Seahawks side.

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week 7 Las Vegas Insider is on the Car panthers at 1;00 ET.

The Panthers hosted the Eagles in Week 6's Thursday game in a showdown of two, 4-1 teams. Carolina came up on the short end of that one, as Carson Wentz out-played Newton, throwing three TD passes without an INT. Newton attempted 52 passes and had three INTs against just one TD. The Bears come in off a 27-24 OT win last Sunday at Baltimore, as Chicago's Mitchell Trubisky, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, earned his first win as an NFL starter. Trubisky did nothing special, completing 8 of 16 passes for 113 yards but didn't throw an interception and had one TD pass. However, he also lost one of his two fumbles.

Carolina takes its 4-2 record (good enough to lead the NFC South) to Soldier Field on Sunday, with Chicago coming in at 2-4 (Packers and Vikings lead the NFC North at 4-2, while the Lions are 3-3). The Panthers are typically successful when Newton has rushing stats like in Week 6 (11 carries for 71 yards) but the problem was the rest of the team's running attack was non-existent (just nine yard on 14 attempts!). Newton was off back-to-back outstanding efforts in road wins at New England (33-30) and Detroit (27-24), where he had completed 77.4% for 671 yards with six TDs and just one INT. His effort against Philly was quite a come-down, going 28 of 52 for 239 yards with one TD, three INTs and a QB rating of 48.5.

While Newton got no help from his RBs, Trubisky saw Jimmy Howard run for 167 yards, a the Bears ran for 231 yards as a team. However, don't expect a repeat effort here, as the Panthers rank 5th in the NFL in rush D, allowing 83.3 YPG. Overall, Carolina ranks 4th in total D (280.0 YPG) and 9th in points allowed, at 20.3 PPG. Trubisky still has a lot to learn and he'll lead an offense averaging just 17.5 PPG (28th) and the Chicago D ranks 25th in points allowed (24.7 per), which won't make his job any easier.

Two recent stats favor Carolina, as the Panthers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss, while the Bears are 0-7 SU and just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win. Let me also add that Carolina is 3-0 SU & ATS on the road in 2017. Newton out-played Brady in New England and coming off a loss (with some extra time to prepare off a Thursday night game in Week 6), my bet says he 'takes down' the rookie Trubisky (and the Bears), "with room to spare!'

Good luck...Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New Orleans Saints (1:00 EST).

The surging 3-2 New Orleans Saints are in Green Bay to take on the devastated 4-2 Packers this Sunday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. 

I had a play on New Orleans as my “Las Vegas Insider” last weekend it went on to annihilate Detroit 52-38.

Green Bay comes in off a crushing 23-10 loss at Minnesota last weekend, losing Pro Bowl QB Aaron Rodgers to injury in the process. 

New Orleans so far averages 29.0 PPG, ranked fourth in the league. Defensively the Saints aren’t great, ranked 21st in conceding 23.2 PPG. However, compared to last season’s dumpster fire of a defense, New Orleans looks markedly improved this year on that side of the ball (sacked Matt Stafford five times.)

QB Drew Brees was 21 of 31 for 186 yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. So far he has 1,321 yards, ten TD’s and two INT’s on the year. 

Green Bay is ranked tenth in scoring with 24.5 PPG, but with Rodgers out, that stat is meaningless now. The defense has been middle of the pack, ranked 18th in allowing 22.5 PPG. 

I’ll point out that New Orleans is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 on the road, while Green Bay is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a straight-up loss. 

Brett Hundley is not going to be able to keep pace with Brees today, who will smell the blood in the water and who will put the foot on the gas early to try and deliver the knock out blow. 

I don’t think the Green Bay defense will be up to the task of slowing down the Saints’ veteran pivot. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Cardinals (1:00 EST).

The 3-3 Arizona Cardinals are in LA to take on the 4-2 division rival Rams and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

Last weekend Cards’ RB Adrian Peterson rushed for 134 yards and two TD’s on 26 carries in Arizona’s 38-33 win over Tampa Bay. 

QB Carson Palmer looked much better and he’ll now look to take advantage of this suspect Rams’ secondary. 

The Rams stumbled out of the gate against the Jaguars last weekend, but recovered in the second half for an impressive victory of their own. 

But strictly from a trend based stand-point, there’s no question that this one heavily favors the visitors today, as Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last five after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game, while the Rams are a brutal 0-5 ATS in their last five against the NFC West.

This one has the feel of whichever team has the ball in its hands last will find a way to win this game. And in a scenario like that, I think the value swings to the underdog. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Rockets (8:05 EST).

Chris Paul is out for the Rockets for 2 to 4 weeks, but I don’t think that’s going to matter in the end. 

The Mavs look horrible, losing their opener 117-111 at home and then falling 93-88 to the Kings as a 6 point favorite just last night.

Houston has won two in a row after beating Sacramento 105-100 on Wednesday. 

And if recent history is any precedence, then the home side has to be liking its chances tonight, as the Rockets would go on to take all four games in the series last season.

Depth seems to be a major issue early in Dallas and the second game of a back-to-back doesn’t bode well for Dirk Nowitzki and company (note that the Mavs are a poor 6-11 ATS in their last 17 off an upset loss as a favorite.)

Houston knocked off Golden State by 1 point on Opening Night and then battled from behind to beat Sacramento as well. So far the Rockets have averaged 113.5 PPG, while allowing 110.5. James Harden led the way last year and so far this season he’s also leading the team with 27 points, 4.5 board and 9.5 assists per night. 

Note that the Rockets hit 27 of 29 free throws in the victory over the Kings as well.

Additionally I’ll point out that Dallas is just 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven against the Western Conference, while Houston is 3-1 ATS in its last four when playing on two dasy of rest.

I like Harden to push the pace from start to finish and for the home side to pull away for the comfortable ATS cover once it’s all said and done. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Memphis Grizzlies (8:05 EST).

While I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I do definitely feel this is a few too many points to be giving up to what will be a highly focused and prepared home side.

Besides, the Warriors come to town off a satisfying and harder than expected 128-120 win at New Orleans just last night. 

Note that Golden State has been bad in this spot for bettors over the last few years as well, going just 14-19 ATS in its last 33 after allowing 115 points or more. 

Golden State was pretty good in the second game of back-to-backs last year, but the Grizzlies are a tough home team. In its win over the Pelicans most recently, Memphis would go on to force 18 turnovers. Mike Conley went on to post 27 points. 

Additionally note that the Grizzlies have played well against the tough Pacific division, going 4-1 ATS in their last five against it.

I think the Memphis defense keeps the home side competitive late, so grab as many points as you can.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Raptors (7:35 EST).

I’m expecting a rout from start to finish in this one.

Despite finishing among the best in the East the last few years, I think that the Raptors are being severely undervalued in this spot. 

Last season the Raptors were tenth in scoring with 106.9 per contest, while eighth on the defensive side in conceding 102.6. 

The 76ers were one of the worst teams in the league last year, but they should be vastly improved this season with a young core of Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz.  

The sky is the limit for this young Philadelphia team, but clearly it’s going to take more time for it to reach its full potential.

With Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan leading the show in Toronto though, the time is NOW for the Raptors. Note that Jonas Valanciunas had 23 points and 15 boards in his team’s 117-100 win over the visiting Bulls on Opening night. 

Embiid is out for this one, as the 76ers work him back into game shape after sitting out most of last season with injury, meaning that Valanciunas has a major advantage tonight.

I’m banking on Toronto’s depth to be too much for the younger 76ers to handle down the stretch. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Cincinnati (4:00 EST). 

The 4-2 SMU Mustangs are in Cincinnati to take on the 2-5 Bearcats and for a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors the home side.

I simply think that Cincinnati will be by far the more “desperate” team this afternoon as it looks to break a four-game slide, most recently falling to USF.

SMU opened the year 4-1, but looks primed for another letdown here after falling at Houston two weeks ago. 

SMU is coming off its bye, so I think it’s going to be caught a little “flat footed.” 

In the loss to the Cougars, QB Ben Hicks was picked off twice. Hicks though has been solid overall with 1,672 yards, 16 TD’s and five INT’s. 

Bearcats’ QB Hayden Moore was 16 of 28 for 147 yards and an INT last week. So far Moore has 1,522 yards, ten TD’s and six INT’s. Moore suffered a minor injury and if he can’t go, then Ross Trail will get the call.

Whoever gets the call though, I absolutely believe this one favors the home side, as note that SMU is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 after playing a conference game, while Cincinnati is 2-1 ATS in its last three as an underdog of 3.5 to ten points. 

Am I recommending to you to “sprinkle a little” on the money line? I’m not. I simply feel that the overall situation favors the hungry home side and combined with these strong trends, it does indeed make the Bearcats the correct call in this one.

Play on Cincinnati.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Indiana (3:30 EST).

The 3-3 Indiana Hoosiers are at Michigan State this weekend and for a number of different reasons I believe this one favors the visitors.

Michigan State gets caught flat footed and complacent in my opinion after winning three straight, most recently over Iowa, Michigan and Minnesota. 

Indiana has traded wins with losses of late, most recently falling to Michigan this past weekend.

The Hoosiers got blown out by both Ohio State and Penn State, but looked a lot better in last week’s 27-20 OT loss to Michigan. Now 0-3 in Big Ten play, clearly Indiana is going to be desperate to get off the conference schneid. 

In their 30-27 win over the Golden Gophers last weekend, Spartans’ RB LJ Scott returned and posted a career-high 194 yards and two TD’s. Previous to that monster game though, Scott was averaging a career-low 3.7 YPG this year. 

I’ll point out as well that Indiana has in fact excelled in this spot for bettors, going 7-5 ATS in its last 12 on the road overall and 3-1 ATS in its last four after playing a conference game, while Michigan State is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 after two or more consecutive SU wins.

These teams played last year and Michigan State won 24-21 in OT. The Hoosiers are out for revenge and while I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can.

Play on Indiana.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* SItuational Stunner is on Miami Florida (3:30 EST).

The 4-3 Syracuse Orange are at 5-0 Miami Florida this weekend and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

The Orange are primed for a classic letdown here after their massive 27-24 upset victory over Clemson last Saturday.

The Hurricanes though won’t be taking anything for granted after nudging by Georgia Tech 25-24 last weekend.

Syracuse QB Eric Dungey so far has 2,080 yards and a 12/4 TD/INT ratio. The Orange defense caught a big break last weekend though, as Tigers’ starting QB Kelly Bryant left just before the half with a concussion. 

Hurricanes’ QB Malik Rosier had 297 yards, one TD and no picks last week. Rosier has 1,371 yards and a 12/3 TD/INT. RB Travis Homer had 170 yards last week. 

Miami’s defense also looked sharp, holding Georgia Tech to just 281 total yards and limiting the Yellow Jackets to just 4 of 13 on third downs. The Hurricane’s pass defense was especially tight, which doesn’t bode well for Dungey this weekend either in my opinion.

Additionally I’ll point out that Syracuse is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after two or more consecutive SU wins, while Miami is 7-5 ATS in its last 12 after two or more consecutive SU victories.

For all the reasons listed above, lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Troy (2:00 EST).

The 4-2 Troy Trojans are just 1-5 ATS, while Georgia State is 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS. Troy looks to get back on track here after its three game win streak came to an end in a 19-8 setback to South Alabama last Wednesday. Georgia State looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion after its third straight win in a 47-37 victory over Louisiana Monroe.

So far the Trojans are ranked 110th in scoring offense by averaging 21.3 PPG, making up for it on the defensive side of the ball in conceding just 18.7 PPG. QB Brandon Silvers has 1,504 yards with two TD’s and three INT’s, plus three more rushing scores. RB Jamarius Henderson has 216 yards and three TD’s. 

The Panthers are tied for 78th in the country in scoring offense with an average of 28 PPG, while ranked 69th in scoring defense in conceding 26.2. 

Georgia State QB Conner Manning has 1,261 yards, six TD’s and four INT’s. RB Taz Bateman has 176 yards on 53 carries. 

I’ll point out though that Troy is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games against a team with a winning home record, while Georgia State is just 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 home games.

I think Troy’s defense proves to be too much for the Panthers to overcome. The Trojans lead the league in several defensive categories and all signs point to a bounce back this weekend. 

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Minnesota Timberwolves (8:05 EST).

Jeff Teague replaces Ricky Rubio as point guard in Minnesota this year. Rubio returns to Minnesota tonight as part of the Utah Jazz. 

Minnesota head coach Tom Thibodeau brought over Taj Gibson and Jimmy Butler to the Wolves as well in the offseason. 

Minneosta now looks to punch its first win of the year after falling 107-99 at San Antonio in its season opener on Wednesday. Andrew Wiggins had 26 points, while Karl Anthony Towns had 18 points and 13 boards:

"We didn't close out the way we needed to against a team like that," Thibodeau said. "You have to play, particularly down the stretch. We just have to do better. We didn't have a lot of turnovers, but the ones we had were very costly. That's something we have to take a look at."

I think the Jazz come in a bit complacent here after their big 106-96 opening night win agaisnt the Nuggets on Wednesday. Big man Rudy Gobert was a standout with 18 points and ten boards. 

Minnesota though plays with revenge tonight after Utah took took three of four meetings a year ago. 

Additionally I’ll point out that Utah is just 22-23 ATS in its last 45 following a victory by ten points or more, while Minnesota is 45-31 ATS in its last 76 against a team with a winning record. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Wolves.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Old Dominion (6:00 EST).

The 4-2 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers get ready to face off against the 2-4 ODU Monarchs on Friday night and while I’ll stop short in calling for an outright upset, I do think that the determined home side will keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

WKU comes in off a 45-14 win over Charlotte at home, while Old Dominion enters off a 35-3 loss at Marshall.

Note that this is a revenge game for the Monarchs after they fell at WKU 59-24 last season.

So far Western Kentucky averages 25.5 PPG, while allowing just 18.2 PPG (ranked 19th). Last week the Hilltoppers posted 627 yards of offense as Mike White would go 33 of 47 for 398 yards passing and five TD’s. Note though that the 49ers did post 248 rushing yards against them.

The Monarchs average 17.0 PPG and allow 34.7. Clearly they are overmatched on both sides of the ball, however I think this is a great situation for the home side (also note that the defense looked much better last week, allowing just 371 yards in the game. )

WKU has hit a “vanilla” part of its schedule with FAU at home next week, so it’s not too hard to imagine the Hilltoppers coming in a bit complacent here on the heels of three straight “rocking chair” victories.

Additionally I’ll point out that WKU is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 on the road (including 0-2 ATS already this year), while ODU is 9-6 ATS in its last 15 following a conference contest.

As mentioned off the top, I’m not calling for an outright upset, but the conditions would appear right for a competitive affair. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Houston (8:00 EST).

The 5-1 Memphis Tigers are in Houston to take on the 4-2 Cougars and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

The Tigers come in off a 30-27 home win over Navy last weekend, while the Cougars will be out to atone for a listless 45-17 road loss to Tulsa.

Note that this is also a “revenge” scenario for Houston after it fell 48-44 at home to Memphis last year. 

Last week the Tigers forced five turnovers in their victory over the Midshipmen and gave up just 334 yards overall. QB Riley Ferguson was 24 of 40 for 279 yards and three TD’s. So far the offense has scored over 30 points in all but one game this year.

Houston gave up 416 yards last weekend and allowed the Golden Hurricane to convert on 9 of 17 first downs. However, despite last week’s result, the Cougars have been solid defensively this year. 

Last week QB Kyle Postma had his worst game of the season, posting 258 passing yards with no TD’s and two INT’s. So far he has 805 passing yards and a poor 4/5 TD/INT ratio. The run game looked good for the Cougars though, accumulating 146 yards, led by Duke Catalon with 72 on the day. 

From a trend based stand point, this one definitely favors the home side: I’ll point out that Memphis is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after allowing 27 points or more in its previous contest, while Houston is 4-2 ATS in ts last six after allowing 44 points or more in its previous game.

I think Memphis stumbles on the road here against this determined Houston side, looking to atone for a weak effort last week and out for revenge from a close loss a year ago.

Play on Houston.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Phoenix Suns (10:00 EST).

Portland was 41-41 last year and got swept in the first round by the Warriors.

Phoenix was just 24-58 and missed the postseason for a seventh consecutive year. 

Note that this is a revenge game for the Suns after the Blazers took three of four meetings last season, including in the last one, a 130-117 home win on April 1st.

The Blazers averaged 107.9 PPG last season and conceded 108.5. Damian Lillard averaged 27 PPG and 5.9 assists, while CJ McCollum chipped in 23. 

The Suns averaged 107.7 PPG and allowed 113.3, which was last in the league. Phoenix added Josh Jackson, Mike James, Alec Peters and Davon Reed in the offseason. Eric Bledsoe led the nightly charge with 21.1 PPG last year, while Devin Booker averaged 22.1 PPG. 

Phoenix won’t have McCollum in the ilne-up though due to a one game suspension, which I think will be a big difference maker on Opening Night.

I like the Suns to hold serve on their own floor and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Timberwolves (9:30 EST).

Minnesota was 31-51 last year, but is expected to make big strides this season with the continued development of star players Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns. 

The Wolves also brought in veteran guard Jimmy Butler from Chicago, who looks re-focused and in great shape coming out of the preseason. Last year the Wolves averaged 105.6 PPG and allowed 106.7.

The Spurs averaged 105.3 PPG and allowed 98.1. San Antonio should once again be a strong defensive club, but it lacks offensive firepower. The team signed Rudy Gay, but Kawhi Leonard is expected to miss tonight’s game.

San Antonio signed big man LaMarcus Aldridge to a long-term deal, but along with Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, the Spurs are certainly not getting any younger right now.

With Parker and Leonard out of the line-up for the home side, I have a hard time seeing the Spurs keeping pace with the high-flying Wolves. While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can.

Play on Minnesota.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Bucks (7:30 EST).

Boston lost its Opening Night game in Cleveland last night and it also lost All Star Gordon Hayward for the season after he suffered a gruesome leg injury.

Now the deflated C’s have to retiurn home and try to muster up the same energy to face a Bucks team that can smell the blood in the water. 

Milwaukee made the playoffs last year and then lost in six games to the Raptors in the first round. The Bucks didn’t make too many changes in the offseason

Giannis Antetokounmpo is expected to have a massive year for the Bucks. He’s joined by Jabari Parker and Greg Monroe and in my opinion, they have a very legitimate shot at taking this one outright.

Kyrie Irving looked pretty good last night for his new team, but with the knowledge that Hayward is now out for the year and coming off the setback in Cleveland, I think this absolutely sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for the Celtics right out of the gates here.

No need to overthink this one in my opinion, I’m grabbing the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is the New York Yankees on the run-line (5:00 EST).

On paper the Astros have the advantage in the pitching departemnt in this series. They also have the advantage in this particular head-to-head matchup, as Dallas Keuchel is 14-5 with a 2.90 ERA, while Masahiro Tanaka is 13-12 with a 4.74 ERA.

However, home field advantage has been crucial so far in this series and in a game which I foresee being decided late or in extra frames, I’m going to lay what I feel to be a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance.

Keuchel has been sharp in the playoffs, posting 17 K’s over 12.2 innings of work thus far. Tanaka was sharp as well in Game 1 against the Astros, holding them to two runs over six innings. In his outing against the Indians in the ALDS Tanaka went seven scoreless. 

I think “momentum” can be a very real, almost tangible factor, especially in the playoffs. As good as Keuchel has been this year, I think he and Tanaka are a “wash” right now.

And in a scenario like that, I think we’re getting tremendous value on the hard-hitting home side on the run-line.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Houston Rockets (10:35 EST).

Houston won 55 games last year and finished as the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference. James Harden averaged 29.1 PPG and posted an NBA best 11.2 assists and finished second in the MVP race behind Russell Westrbrook.

Harden has some big time help in the form of All-Star point guard Chis Paul and now the Rockets will look to even better their results in 2017/18.

And what better test than against the best in the league? The Warriors are back on top after defeating the Cavaliers in five games last season.

Golden State didn’t do too much to its lineup and is once again expected to contend for the NBA title once it’s all said and done. 

I’ll point out though that Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road, while Golden State is interestingly just 1-2 ATS in its last three Opening Night games.

Houston is out for revenge here after faling in five games to Golden State in the conference finals last year, except this time it has arguably the best point guard in the World running the show. 

While I’m not calling for an outright upset, I do definitely believe this is a few too many points to be giving up here. Play on Houston.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Indianapolis Colts (8:30 EST).

The 2-3 Colts are in Tennessee to take on the 2-3 Titans and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

Indianapolis comes in off a confidence building 26-23 OT win over San Francisco, while Tennessee looked horrible in its 16-10 road loss in Miami last weekend.

If recent history is any precedence, then the Colts have to be liking their chances today, as they’ve won 11 straight in the series, including a a 24-17 home victory in the most recent matchup.

Of course, most/all of those games in that win streak were started by either Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck. Regardless, I absoultely believe that the visitors have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one.

So far the Colts average 19.4 PPG and allow 32.8 The team looked better last week though, winning the yardage battle 447-402 and had a sizeable advantage in time of possession, going 37:17 to 31:05. 

Indaianpolis QB Jacoby Brissett so far has 997 yards, two TD’s and three INT’s. Brissett though is learning on the fly and has definitely looked stronger with each outing. Frank Gore leads the ground game with 239 yards and two major scores thus far.

Tennessee averages 22 PPG and allows 28.4. Last week the Titans gave up six sacks, while also committing 11 penalties. 

Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota has 792 yards, three TD’s and three INT’s thus far, while also posting 116 yards rushing and three more scores on the ground. He missed the Miami game, but is expected to start here. If he does play, clearly he’s not going to be at 100% capacity.

And if he doesn’t play, then Matt Cassel will get the call, so far he has 162 yards, a TD and two INT’s this season. RB DeMarco Murray has 273 yards and one TD.

I’ll point out though that Indianapolis is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, while Tennessee is 0-4 ATS in its last four as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range.

Mariota’s health? It’s definitely a big question mark for this one. I think Brissett can keep his team competitive, so grab up those points!

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Browns (1:00 EST).

The 0-5 Cleveland Browns never expected to make the playoffs this season, but they also weren’t expecting things to be quite this bad. 

While the Browns are now already “looking ahead” until next year, I still think they offer plenty of value in this spot.

Cleveland is most recently coming off a hard-fought setback at home to the Jets, while Houston was smashed by the Cheifs in the Sunday nighter, losing star defensive player JJ Watt for the season again to injury in the process.

The Browns once again turn to rookie QB DeShone Kizer, who has three TD’s and nine INT’s thus far. QB Kevin Hogan could see time though as well and so far he has 377 yards, three TD’s and two INT’s on the season. 

The good thing though is that Cleveland faces another rookie QB in DeShaun Watson this weekend, Clearly Watson is further along with his progression than Kizer at the moment, but it’s not like he’s going up against an Aaron Rodgers or anything this afternoon.

It’s interesting to note as well that the Browns are 2-1 ATS in their last three against the AFC South, while Houston is already just 1-2 ATS in front of the home town crowd this year.

After the humbling loss to Kansas City, not only does this set up as a letdown spot for the home side, but with its bye coming next week, it also sets up as a look ahead spot. 

While I’m not calling for the outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Browns.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New England Patriots (1:00 EST).

Both division rivals sit at 3-2 to open the season, but for a number of different reaosns I think this one favors the visiting side.

After falling at home 33-30 to Carolina, the Pats bounced back with a solid 19-14 road win over the Buccaneers last Sunday. 

Pats’ QB Tom Brady was 30 of 40 for 303 yards, one TD and one INT last week. New England also posted 113 yards on the ground. 

New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is not taking the Jets’ defense lightly: “They’re a really hard-nosed, tough, physical team,” McDaniels assessed. “They know us very well. We know them. They’ve got a physical front. They’ve got a very talented front. They’ve got speed at linebacker. They’ve got length on the edge. They’ve got some really, really talented inside players with (defensive linemen Leonard) Williams, (Muhammad) Wilkerson, (and Steve) McLendon. Those guys are tough to block and do a really good job for them inside. And they’ve got some new guys in the secondary that this will be our first opportunity to play against them and get to know them this week with (safeties Marcus) May and (Jamal) Adams. (Cornerback Morris) Claiborne we’ve played against before, but not as a Jet. So this is a new group; a physical bunch.”

The Jets offense took a hit when RB Bilal Powell strained a calf this weekend, making him day-to-day. Starting RB Matt Forte is already out with turf toe. If either manages to suit up for this one, clearly they’re not going to be at 100% capacity.

I’ll also point out that the Patriots have in fact excelled in this spot for bettors over the years, going 7-1 ATS in their last eight against teams with winning records (they’re also 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games overall.)

Additionally note that the Jets are interestingly just 1-5 ATS in their last six after allowing 250 or more passing yards in their previous game. 

Brandin Cooks already has 18 catchs for 379 yards and two TD’s for New England this year and Brady has shown no signs of slowing down.

After a couple of mediocre performances in a row, I look for this high-powered New England offense to finally get untracked. Lay the points with confidence.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST).

The Falcons are rested, coming off their bye week and I look for them to put the foot on the gas from start to finish and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover.

Atlanta will be especially motivated here as well after falling to the Bills in their last outing.

Conversely, Miami comes in contented after its two-game slide ended with a win over the Titans.

Despite that 16-10 victory though, the Fish have scored a grand total of 41 points through the first four games and QB Jay Cutler has for the most part struggled. 

Note that the Miami offense was shutout by the Saints earlier in the year.

The bye couldn’t have come at a better time for the Falcons though: “It’s a perfect time for us to reset,” head coach Dan Quinn noted. “For whatever reason, the bye hit us at the right time based on some injuries. It was great to have those guys back.” (Julio Jones, OT Ryan Schraeder, LB Vic Beasley and safety Ricardo Allen.)

I’ll point out as well that the Dolphins are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 against clubs with winning records, while the Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five following their bye-week.

Cutler is averaging less than 200 passing yards per game, which clearly doesn’t bode well in this hostile environment.

With a week to re-focus and plan for this one, all signs point to an epic lop-sided destruction. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week 6 Las Vegas Insider is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET.

The Lions opened the 2017 season with a 35-23 home win over the Cardinals and followed with a 24-10 MNF win at the NY Giants in Week 2. However, neither of those wins look very impressive now and Detroit will head to New Orleans having lost two of its last three, needing a win to not fall back to .500 at 3-3. Meanwhile, the Saints opened the 2017 season with double-digit losses at Minnesota (29-19) and home to New England (36-20) but then shocked the Panthers 34-13 in Carolina in Week 3 before shutting out the Dolphins 2-0 in London during Week 4. New Orleans was one of four teams with a Week 5 bye and now welcomes the Lions to the Superdome, a team which has beaten them in each of the last three seasons, 24-23 in Detroit in 2014, then 35-27 and 28-13 the last two years here in New Orleans.

The Lions hosted the Panthers last Sunday, entering that game surviving by being extremely opportunistic on both sides of the ball, Detroit was averaging 24.8 PPG but just 299.8 YPG in total offense plus was allowing just 17.5 PPG (4th-best), despite ranking 15th in total defense. The team's plus-9 turnover margin had played a huge role in the team reaching 3-1. However, the Lions could not force a single TO against the Panthers, as Cam Newton ripped Detroit's pass D for 355 yards and three TDs. The Lions gained only 192 yards of offense on their own, going 5 of 13 on third down tries (0-1 on 4th-down). QB Stafford is completing 64.6% with nine TDs and just one INT but the Lions rank just 23rd in passing (200.6 YPG). RB Ameer Abdullah had a career-high 94 yards in the Week 4 win at Minnesota but is averaging just 48.5 YPG on the ground in Detroit's other four games, as the team ranks 26th in rushing on the season at 87.6 YPG. 

If the Lions think that they can win by forcing Brees into mistakes, they had better think again. New Orleans' age-less QB hasn't thrown an interception in 152 attempts this season, while passing for eight TDs (108.3 QB rating) and leading the Saints to average 276.5 YPG through the air (ranks 4th). In fact, the Saints have yet to commit a single TO through four games, only the third NFL team since 1935 to open the season in such a manner! As for the New Orleans' D, talk about turnarounds! The Saints allowed a league-worst 777 passing yards and tied for the league lead with six TD passes allowed in opening 0-2. However, they then hen they flipped the switch, becoming the only NFL team that didn’t allow a TD pass in Weeks 3 or 4. That Week 3 game came against Cam Newton and the Panthers and while Newton shredded the Lions last Sunday in Detroit  for 355 yards and three TDs, the Saints held him to 167 yards with no TD passes and three INTs on his home field (QB rating of 43.8)!

In Weeks 1 & 2 the Saints allowed 11 passing plays of 24-plus yards and 23 passing plays of 15-plus yards but in Weeks 3 & 4, they allowed one passing play of 24-plus yards and six of 15-plus yards. The Lions are overrated and while I'm not completely sold on the Saints as of yet, they have the advantage of an extra week of rest coming into this one off that London game. Lay the points!

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on USC (8:00 EST).

The 4-1 Utah Utes are in USC to take on the 5-1 Trojans and suffice it to say, I’m expecting the home side to pull away for the comfortable ATS cover as the game comes down the stretch.

The Utes look primed for a letdown here in my opinion after falling 23-20 at home to Stanford last Saturday. 

Conversely, USC looks poised to build off its 38-10 victory over Oregon State last weekend. 

Note that this is also a revenge game for the No. 13 Trojans after they fell 31-27 in Utah last season.

Utah hurt itself last week with a pair of costly turnovers. So far the Utes average 32 PPG, while conceding 18.4 QB Tyler Huntley has 966 yards, six TD’s and two INT’s, while also rushing for 208 and three more scores on the ground. Zack Moss leads the way on the ground with 344 yards, plus three TD’s. 

The Trojans are ranked 35th in the country in averaging 35.5 PPG, while ranked 45th in scoring defense by conceding 23.2.

QB Sam Darnold already has 1,705 passing yards with 12 TD’s and nine INT’s. RB Ronald Jones III has 529 yards and seven TD’s. WR Deontay Burnett has 527 yards receving and six TD’s. 

I’ll point out that Utah is just 1-3 ATS in its last four off a loss against a conference rival, while USC is 4-0 ATS in its last four after allowing 20 points or less in its previous outing. 

Huntley is a question mark for Utah coming into this one and if he does play, clearly he won’t be at 100% capacity. Too many things working against the Utes this weekend. I’m laying the points.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* GAME OF MONTH on North Carolina (3:30 EST).

While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the 1-5 Tar Heels to risk life and limb in front of the home town crowd as they try to secure another victory.

Conversely, I think the 4-1 Virginia Cavaliers are primed for a letdown here after they pulled away for a 28-21 win over Duke last weekend.

The Cavs have already doubled their win total from last year, so have to be feeling very content at this point. Jordan Ellis leads the team with 408 rushing yards and five TD’s.

The Virginia defense looked sharp, giving up 124 passing yards, while also grabbing two INT’s in last week’s victory. 

QB Kurt Benkert din’t look overly impressive though, he had 182 passing yards, three TD’s and two INT’s. 

UNC QB Chazz Surratt has 1,167 passing yards and six TD’s so far this season. 

Surratt had 179 passing yards in last week’s 33-10 loss to Notre Dame. The Tar Heels struggled against the Irish run game and will need to immediately re-group in facing Ellis and company.

Virginia plays UNC (1-5) this week, followed by Boston College (2-4) and Pittsburgh (2-4). After the extended winning stretch, the Cavs now hit a very “vanilla” part of their schedule. In my opinion, it’s a perfect storm of factors leading to complacency.

Additionally I’ll point out that Virginia is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a favorite, while UNC is interestingly 6-3 ATS in its last nine games played in the month of October. 

I think Surratt keeps his team in this one late. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* ATS UPSET SPECIAL is on Indiana (12:00 EST).

While I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset obviously, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the under-rated home side to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire.

The Wolverines are 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS, while Indiana is 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS. 

I think Michigan is primed for a letdown here, still hungover after its 14-10 loss in the Big House to rival Michigan State. It was the first loss of the year for the Wolverines and it was a devastating one in my opinion. 

Indiana crushed Charleston Southern 27-0 in non-conference action last wekeend and will look to carry that confidence building momentum over into this one.

Note that this is a revenge game for the home side as well after it fell 20-10 in Michigan last year.

So far Michigan is ranked 82nd in scoring with 27.2 PPG, while ranked seventh on the defensive side in conceding 13.6. 

Wolverines’ QB Wilton Speight has 581 yards, three TD’s and two INT’s on the year. He’s out for the year though with injury. John O’Korn has 505 yards, one TD and four INT’s in relief. RB Ty Isaac has 365 yards and a TD. 

So far Indiana is ranked 69th in scoring offense with an average of 29.6 PPG, while ranked 59th in scoring defense in conceding 25.6. QB Peyton Ramsey has 637 yards passing with six scores and two INT’s, along with another 171 yards and two TD’s on the ground. Morgan Ellison leads the rush attack with 358 yards and two TD’s. 

I’ll point out though that Michigan is just 1-3 ATS in its last four off a loss against a conference rival, while Indiana is 8-6 ATS in its last 14 against teams with winning records.

I think the conditions are right for a highly competitive affair. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Florida State (12:00 EST).

The desperate 1-3 Florida State Seminoles are gunning for a bowl bid at this point of the season, but they’ll need to start stringing together some wins immediately.

The Blue Devils are 4-2 and just finished losing to Virginia 28-21 last Saturday. That same day Florida State fell 24-20 at home to Miami-Florida. 

Seminoles’ QB James Blackman was 17 of 28 passing for 203 yards, two TD’s and two iNT’s. Blackman has been decent since being thrust into the spotlight after starter Deondre Francois went down with injury in Week 1. RB Cam Akers continues to be a bright spot as well, last week he went for 121 yards on 20 carries. 

The FSU defense looked pretty good against a tough Hurricanes offense, holding them to 337 total yards, including only to 83 on the ground. 

Duke QB Daniel Jones was 14 of 42 for 124 yards, one TD and two INT’s last week. The run game stalled as well, managing just 131 rushing yards (compared to the 204 YPG average it normally posts.) 

The Blue Devils looked decent defensively, allowing 310 yards. Duke has now dropped two straight though after starting the year 4-0.

Note that FSU is 4-2 ATS in its last six off a loss against a conference rival, while Duke is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 in the same position. 

I think Blackman is on the cusp of his first truly big game. The Duke defense has looked great, but so too has the Seminoles. I think the combination of Blackman and Akers will prove to be just too much for the Blue Devils this afternoon. 

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK is on California (10:30 EST).

The Washington State Cougars are 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS, while the Cal Golden Bears are 3-3 SU/ATS. 

Cal is going to be hungry after losing its third straight, while conversely, the Cougars look primed for a letdown here after winning six straight, most recently a 33-10 victory over Oregon. 

Note that this is a “revenge” game for the Golden Bears after they fell 56-21 at Washington State last year. 

So far Washington State is ranked 18th in scoring offense with 39.7 PPG, while ranked 23rd in scoring defense in conceding just 18.5. QB Luke Falk already has 2,000 yards passing with 19 TD’s and only two INT’s. 

Cal is ranked 100th in the nation in scoring with 24.3 PPG, while ranked 89th in scoring defense in conceding 29.8. QB Ross Bowers has 1,437 yards, nine TD’s and eight INT’s. RB Patrick Laird has 400 yards and four major scores on the ground. 

I’ll point out that though that Washington State is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a road favorite, while Cal is 2-0 ATS in its last two as a home dog in the 14.5 to 17 points range. 

The Cougs have bigger plans than just being “bowl eligible,” but Washington State has now already punched its ticke to a postseason matchup. 

Cal on the other hand is going to have to earn a couple more conference victories if it has any shot at a bowl invite itself.

While I’m not calling for an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on California.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New York Yankees run-line (8:05 EST).

New York shocked Cleveland in the ALDS and I expect the “Evil Empire” to carry that momentum over into Game 1 of the ALCS. Houston managed to get by Boston in four games. 

Masahiro Tanaka (13-12, 4.74 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors in Game 1 after his gem in the ALDS against the Indians. Tanaka was 10-6 with a 3.93 ERA in all “night” games this season.

This will also set up Tanaka for a Game 5 start as well. Tanaka had an up and down campaign, but finished the stretch strong.

Dallas Keuchel (14-5, 2.90) gets the call for the home side and he was 7-3 with a 2.21 ERA in 12 outings in Houston this season. Keuchel is also 4-2 with a 1.41 ERA lifetime against the Yanks.

But New York is a strong offensive team this year as it comes in ranked 2nd in the league in scoring, putting up 5.30 rpg. Houston is ranked No. 1 at 5.53.

With an extra run and a half, I think Gray is the correct the call here. The veteran struggled in Game 1 of the LDS, but has a big opportunity to make amends tonight.

In a contest which I foresee being decided late or in extra frames, I’m taking New York on the run line.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Carolina Panthers (8:25 EST).

The short week almost always favors the home side and I believe that’s going to be the case here.

The Eagles are 4-1 SU/ATS, while the Panthers are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS. 

Philadelphia cruised to a 34-7 win over the Cardinals last weekend, while Carolina won 27-24 in Detroit for a second straight road victory. 

The Eagles are flying high, but let’s not get too carried away as their level of competition has been very low, beating the Giants 27-24 and the Chargers 26-24. Clearly the Cardinals have major issues as well. 

In my opinion Philadelphia has yet to be tested this year, something which is about to change this weekend. 

Eagles’ QB Carson Wentz was 21 of 30 for 304 yards and four TD’s last week, while RB LeGarrette Blount had 74 yards on 14 carries. 

Philadelphia is averaging 397.8 YPG and conceding 346. Carolina is averaging 327.2 YPG and conceding 274 (ranked third.) 

Panthers’ QB Cam Netwon had 355 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s last week. RB Christian McCaffrey caught a TD pass in that one.

Philadelphia though has struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 3-7 ATS in its last ten on the road, while Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite of three points or less.

As mentioned off the top, this is going to be the best defense that Wentz has seen all season and ultimately I think the opportunistic home side unit will prove to be be the difference maker in this contest. 

I’m laying the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Texas State (7:30 EST).

Texas State is 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS so far this season, while UL Lafayette is 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS. 

The Bobcats enter off a 45-27 home loss to Louisiana Monroe, while UL Lafayette looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after its 21-16 road win over Idaho in its last outing. 

Note that this is a revenge game for Texas State after it fell 27-3 at home to the Ragin Cajuns last year. 

Bobcats’ QB Damian WIlliams was 13 of 24 for 158 yards, one TD and no picks last week. 

The Texas State ground game looked dominant in the loss, posting 181 yards with Anthony D Taylor leading the way with 102 rushing. The defense looked bad, but the unit catches a break this week in facing UL Lafayette.

The Ragin Cajuns’ Andre Nunez was 18 of 24 for 213 yards, one TD and one INT last week. WR Ja’Marcus Bradley had five catches for 93 yards. 

UL Lafayette looked great defensively, but previous to that had struggled. I’m going to be cautious in reading too much into one decent outing.

I’ll point out as well that Texas State is 3-1 ATS in its last four after three or more consecutive SU losses, while UL Lafayette is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after holding an opponent to 17 points or less in its previous contest.

I think the Bobcats are the more desperate team as they look to get off the schneid in conference play. Play on Texas State.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on South Alabama (8:00 EST).

Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle” a little on the money line? Of course not.

I do however think this is a few too many points to be giving up to this hungry 1-4 South Alabama Jaguars team.

Conversely, it’s not too hard to imagine the surging 4-1 Troy Trojans “looking past” their lowly opponent tonight.

There’s no question that this sets up as a classic “trap” for the home side after its epic 24-21 road win over LSU on September 30th. 

South Alabama also played on September 30th and fell 34-16 to Louisiana Tech. 

Note that this is a revenge game for the Jaguars after they fell to the Trojans 28-21 at home last year. 

USA struggled defensively last week, although it did hold Louisiana Tech to just 2 of 11 on third down. 

QB Cole Garvin was 21 of 45 for one TD and two INT’s, while RB Xavier Johnson had 89 yards on 12 carries. USA ranks near the bottom on both sides of the ball, but as mentioned off the top, I think it catches a break here facing a Troy team coming off a historic program victory.

The Trojans gave up 428 yards on defense, but created four turnovers over LSU. QB Brandon Silvers had just 157 yards passing. On the year Troy is allowing 231 yards per game through the air.

I’ll point out as well that Troy is 0-5 ATS in its last five following its bye, while USA is 2-1 ATS in its last three after two or more consecutive ATS losses.

These teams have historically played each other tough and all signs point to another competitive affair. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Chicago Bears (8:30 EST).

The Vikings are 2-2 SU/ATS while the Bears are 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS.

Minnesota comes in off a listless 14-7 loss at home to Detroit. Starting QB Sam Bradford is listed as day-to-day with a knee injury. If Bradford does suit up for this one, clearly he’s not going to be at 100% capacity. 

The Vikes also lost rookie RB Dalvin Cook to a torn ACL last week when he fumbled the ball, a costly turnover which led to a Lions’ TD. 

Once Cook went down, the offense stalled and suffice it to say, I think that’s going to be the case again on Monday night. 

Minnesota’s backup QB Case Keenum was 16 of 30 for 210 yards.

Chicago enters off a 35-14 loss at Green Bay with QB Mike Glennon under center in that one. Glennon is out for this one though, as the Bears turn to rookie Mitch Trubisky. 

Trubisky showed a lot of promise in the preseason and he’ll have a big opportunity here facing this less than 100% Vikings squad. The Bears’ pass defense was a bright spot in last week’s loss, holding Aaron Rodgers to just 179 passing yards (although he did throw four TD’s.)

Trubisky will be leaning heavily on RB Jordan Howard, who has 302 yards and four TD’s. 

Chicago’s defense is going to be a big difference maker in my opinion though, as it allows 220.8 YPG through the air and just 85.5 YPG on the ground. 

And that’s bad news for Minnesota’s offense in my opinion, as right now the unit is a disaster. Trubisky is a rookie, but Vikes’ coach Mike Zimmer doesn’t have a lot of game tape on the kid yet. I think the door is wide open for an outright upset. That said, I’ll grab the points in the end.

Good luck….Larry

My 8* NFL Week 5 Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Giants at 1:00 ET.

Four weeks into the 2017 season, four teams remain win-less. The list includes the Browns, Chargers, Giants and Niners. Two of those teams, the now-LA Chargers and the NY Giants, will go head-to-head at MetLife Stadium in Week 5 with one team (barring a tie), getting off the schnied. The Chargers' schnied is quite a bit 'bigger' than the Giants', as while New York made the postseason in 2016 (lost badly at Green Bay in the wild card round), the Chargers are coming off a season in which the team was 5-11 and lost its final five games. That means the Chargers enter this game on a nine-game losing streak, with an 0-8-1 ATS record, as well (Opening Week push at the Broncos in 2017 is LA's lone non-loss ATS in that stretch).

The Chargers narrowly lost to the Eagles 26-24 last Sunday, the team's third straight home contest. QB Philip Rivers threw for 347 yards and two TDs (covering 22 and 38 yards) on 22 of 38 passing. The Chargers had a pair of 100-yard receivers, as Keenan Allen (24 catches on the season) caught five balls for 138 yards, while Tyrell Williams caught five passes for 115 yards. RB Melvin Gordon struggled once again (10 carries for just 22 yards) and has only 168 yards (3.1 YPC) after four games. LA is averaging only 67.5 YPG (3.6 YPC), which ranks 29th among the NFL's 32 teams. LA's offense wasn't the problem in Week 4, as the defense allowed 454 yards of total offense, while being dominated in the time of TOP battle, allowing Philly to hold onto the ball for just over 39 of the game's 60 minutes.

The Giants also lost a close one in Week 4, 25-23 at Tampa Bay, when the Buccaneers kicked a game-winning 34-yard FG on the contest's final play. Eli Manning completed 30 of 49 pass for 288 yards and two TDs (no INTs) plus added a 14-yard TD run. Wayne Gallman led the team with 42 rushing yards on 11 carries but on the season, the Giants have run the ball worse than the Chargers, averaging only 59.3 YPG (3.2 YPC) to rank 31st. The Giants D allowed only 17.8 PPG in 2016, tops in the NFC and second-best in the entire NFL to New England. However, the Giants allowed the Bucs 434 yards of total offense, despite the Giants offense holding onto the ball for over 34 minutes. New York checks in allowing 23.8 PPG through four games, which is SIX points higher than last season's average.

The Chargers actually may get get more crowd support at MetLife than they do in their own StubHub Center, as it's quickly become obvious that the LA fans have shown little or no interest in welcoming the team from San Diego. As for New York fans, the team's 0-4 start has made “Fire Ben McAdoo” a popular search topic on Google. Both teams have significant issues but "someone has to win!" My bet says it's the Giants, as Eli has a plethora of receiving options in WRs like OBJ, Shepard and Marshall plus rookie TE Engram. New York also just may be able to get a running game going against a Chargers rush D which is allowing 163.5 YPPG (31st) on 4.8 YPC. The Giants WON'T be making the postseason in 2017 but after an 0-4 start, ENOUGH is ENOUGH!

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cincinnati Bengals (1:00 EST).

The Bills are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS, while the Bengals are 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS. Clearly not many would have predicted that this would be the case for these teams at this point of the season.

Buffalo looks primed for a letdown here though after its big 23-17 road win against the Falcons. It’s hard to win on the road. It’s even harder to win back-tp-back road games, let alone cover both as well.

The Bills have come a long way no doubt, but they now face a super hungry Bengals team which comes in off its first win of the year after downing the Browns 31-17 last weekend.

Note that Cincinnati plays with revenge here as well after Buffalo won 16-12 on the road last season. 

Buffalo took advantage of an injured Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu last week. QB Tyrod Taylor was an unimpressive 12 of 20 for 182 yards, a TD.

The Bills have looked good, not great in my opinion. 

The Bengals have obviously looked pretty bad, but they sure looked a lot better in last week’s victory over Cleveland. 

QB Andy Dalton was 25 of 30 for 286 yards, four TD’s and zero INT’s. After a slow start, Dalton now has six TD’s over his last two games. WR AJ Green had five catches for 63 yards and a TD. 

The Bengals’ have looked much better defensively as well after a slower start to the season, last week allowing only 215 total yards, including just 45 rushing. 

A great situational play in my opinion. Buffalo gets caught “looking ahead” to its bye-week, while the desperate home side puts the foot on the gas from start to finish. Play on the Bengals.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Indianapolis Colts (1:00 EST).

The 49ers are 0-4 SU and 3-1 ATS, while the Colts are just 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS.

San Fran looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after its deflating 18-15 OT road loss to Arizona last week. 

After beating Cleveland at home, the Colts fell 46-18 in Seattle last weekend. 

So far the 49ers are ranked 26th in the league in scoring at 16.5 PPG, while ranked 24th in the league on the defensive side in conceding 23.5. QB Brian Hoyer was 24 of 49 for 234 yards and an INT last week. The defense looked decent, limiting the Cardinals to just 51 yards on the ground.

Indianapolis is ranked 25th in scoring with 17.8 PPG, while ranked 32nd in the league on the defensive side in conceding 34.0 PPG.

Colts’ QB Jacoby Brissett was 16 of 29 for 157 yards, a TD and an INT last week. 

Indianapolis actually led the game 15-10 at the break, before then falling apart in the second half. 

A couple of really lousy teams going head-to-head in this one, but I don’t think that the home field advantage factor can be overlooked in this particular matchup.

I’ll also point out that San Francisco is just 6-13 ATS in its last 19 against teams with losing records, while Indianapolis is 26-8 ATS in its last 24 in the same position.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Colts.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST).

While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the surging visiting side to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire.

Carolina beat the Pats on the road 33-30 last weekend, while Detroit comes in off a listless 14-7 win over the Vikings. 

Panthers’ QB Cam Newton had three TD passes and also ran another one in on the ground. The defense looked a little suspect, but look at who the opponent was. The unit bent, but it did not break:

“It can be a catalyst, a stepping-stone,” Panthers’ Coach Ron Rivera assessed afterwards. “It kind of felt a little bit like what happened a couple of years ago when we went to Seattle. They were the watermark for us, as far as the NFC was concerned. So we were able to have success there, and from that point we had success.”

Detroit was trailing 7-3 at half time last week, before coming back in the second half for the victory. So far the Lions have looked good, not great in my opinion.

Additionally I’ll point out that Carolina is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 15 after allowing 250 or more passing yards in its previous contest, while Detroit is just 2-8 ATS in its last ten after allowing 15 points or less in its previous outing. 

I like Newton to build off his last performance and give the Lions’ defense everything it can handle. Play on Carolina.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PAC-12 GAME OF THE YEAR is on California (10:45 EST).

Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle” a little on the money line?

Of course not. But with three “cream puffs” on deck, including tonight’s game against Cal, then up next against Arizona State and UCLA respectively, I absolutely believe that the 5-0 Huskies are going to come in a little content and “flat footed” in this one. 

The Huskies really get into the meat of their schedule after that with games at home against Oregon, and then at Stanford, followed by Utah and Washington State.

Not surprisingly, this is a revenge game for the Bears after they were smoked 66-27 by Washington last year. 

So far Cal averages 27.8 PPG and concedes 28.2. QB Ross Bowers has 1,357 yards, nine TD’s and eight picks on the year. Last week against the Ducks he had 255 yards, three TD’s and zero INT’s and suffice it to say, I think he’s going to carry over that momentum here. 

Washington averages 44.0 PPG, which is ranked tenth. So far it’s allowed just 10.8 PPG, which is ranked fifth overall. 

QB Jake Browning had 293 passing yards, three TD’s and an INT last week, while Myles Gaskin had 115 yards on the ground and another major score. 

I’ll point out though that Cal is 5-1 ATS in its last six as an underdog, while Washington is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 after two or more consecutive SU wins and interestingly just 3-4 ATS in its last seven games played in the month of October. 

The schedule isn’t in the Bears favor to get a bowl invite this season and while an outright win is almost assuredly out of the question in this particular matchup, I believe that the situation is greatly in their favor and combined with the strong trends listed above, I will indeed grab up all these points in the end!

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on Stanford (10:15 EST).

Stanford is 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS, while Utah is 4-0 SU/ATS. 

The Cardinal won their second straight conference game, most recently getting the better of Arizona State 34-24 at home on Saturday. The Utes enter off a 30-24 road win over Arizona last week.

Utah has won three straight in the series, although they last played in 2014. 

Last week Stanford held a 501-409 advantage in total offense, but lost the first down battle 22-17. The Cardinal though forced two turnovers. 

So far Stanford is ranked 24th in the nation in scoring with 39 PPG, while tied for 62nd in scoring defense in allowing just 25.4. QB Keller Chryst has 509 passing yards on the season, four TD’s and two INT’s, while KJ Costello has 376 yards passing, three TD’s and also 40 rushing yards and two more TD’s on the ground. 

The Utes won last week despite getting outgained 448-341. Utah though forced five turnovers, which wound up being the difference maker in the end. 

So far Utah is ranked 38th in scoring offense with 35 PPG, while ranked 17th in conceding 17.3. 

QB Tyler Huntley is 88 of 120 passing for 966 yards, six TD’s and two INT’s on the year. RB Zack Moss has 265 yards and two major scores.

I’ll point out though that Stanford is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 after two or more consecutive SU wins and 9-7 ATS in its last 16 off a win against a conference rival, while Utah is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 off a win against a conference foe.

I think the Stanford offense will prove to be the difference here. 

Good luck…Larry

My 8* BLOWOUT is on Michigan State (7:30 EST).

Michigan has looked pretty good so far in going 4-0 SU (2-2 ATS.) In the Wolverines latest outing they got the better of Purdue 28-10 back on September 23rd. 

The Spartans enter off a 17-10 win over Iowa to open conference play. When these teams played last year, it was Michigan that pulled away for the 32-23 road win.

It’s back-to-back gruelling affairs for the 3-1 Spartans, with a game next week at 3-1 Minnesota. Essentially, this two week stretch will determine whether or note MSU will contend for the conference crown or not and while clearly the odds are stacked against it, I think it’s safe to say that we’re going to see its best effort this weekend.

MSU jumped out to a 14-0 lead last week and went on to win by three points. QB Brian Lewerke threw two TD passes to Felton Davis III in the first quarter. The Hawkeyes though held the Spartans to just 88 yards on 40 carries. 

Defensively MSU looked sharp though, holding Iowa to just 226 yards of total offense, including 19 rushing yards. So far the Michigan State offense is averaging 429.5 YPG, while the defense is conceding just 247 YPG (ranked fourth overall thus far.)

Last week the Wolverines posted 423 yards of offense, while holding the Boilermakers to just 30 yards rushing on 20 carries. 

Michigan QB Wilton Speight was injured early and got replaced by John O’Korn, who had 270 yards passing, with one TD and one INT. The Wolverines defense leads the nation right now in conceding just 203.1 YPG. 

I’ll point out though that the Wolverines are 0-5 ATS in their last five following their bye week, while the Spartans are 3-1 ATS in their last four after allowing ten points or less in their previous contest.

Ultimately I feel that the Spartans’ defense can keep the team competitive in this one late. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on North Carolina (12:00 EST).

Notre Dame is 4-1 SU/ATS, while UNC is just 1-4 SU/ATS.

Am I suggesting to you that you should “sprinkle” a little on the money line? Of course not. I simply feel though that this one sets up as a bit of a natural “letdown” spot for the Irish, while I expect the desperate home side to risk life and limb to try and pull off an upset this afternoon. Ultimately in my opinion, this is a few too many points for Notre Dame to be giving up here.

The Irish most recently smashed Miami-Ohio 52-17, while the Tar Heels are off a 33-7 road loss at Georgia Tech. 

Notre Dame RB Josh Adams had 159 rushing yards last week to go along with two TD’s. QB Brandon Wimbush was just 7 of 18 for 119 yards, but with three TD strikes. 

Overall the Irish defense was unspectacular, allowing 377 total yards. Notre Dame’s biggest weaknesses are its passing game (just 166.6 YPG thus far) and also in defending the pass (conceding 241.6 YPG.)

The Tar Heels have had a difficult opening schedule, falling 47-35 to Louisville, 35-30 to Cal and 27-17 to Duke. 

UNC’s loss to Georgia Tech last week was its first true “dud” of the campaign. QB Chaz Surratt was 18 of 30 for 141 yards, no TD’s and a pick. The run game produced just 106 yards. Surratt so far has 988 yards, five TD’s and two INT’s on the season. So far the ground attack averages 142.4 YPG. 

The Tar Heels’ defense has been their weak point, but note that Notre Dame is just 2-8 ATS in its last ten following an ATS victory, while UNC is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 following an ATS loss.

The Irish are the better overall team, but I expect the Tar Heels’ offense to have its opportunities today against what I think to be a rather suspect Notre Dame defensive unit. As mentioned off the top, I’m not calling for the upset, but I will be grabbing all those points!

Good luck…Larry

My 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR is on BYU (10:15 EST).

Boise State is 2-2 SU/ATS, while BYU is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS. 

Boise State comes in off its bye after getting hammered 42-23 at home by Virginia. BYU lost 40-24 on the road at Utah State on Saturday. 

Note that BYU plays with revenge today after falling 28-27 to the Broncos on the road last October 20th.

The Broncos were outgained 440-383 by the Cavaliers. So far Boise State is ranked 69th in scoring offense with an average of 29.8 PPG, while tied for 86th in scoring defense in conceding 29 PPG.

Broncos’ QB Montell Cozart has just 416 yards passing, six TD’s and one INT. He leads the team in rushing though with 191 yards on the gruond and two scores. QB Brett Rypien had 521 yards and TWO INT’s. 

BYU had a 21-7 lead a minute into the second quarter, before then collapsing and allowing 33 unanswered points to Utah State. The Cougars actually held a 396-288 edge in total yards and a 20-14 advantage in first downs. Seven turnovers were the difference maker though. So far BYU averages 15.8 PPG, while allowing 26.4.

Cougars’ QB Tanner Mangum had 466 yards, two TD’s and four INT’s. He splits time between Koy Detmer Jr. and Beau Hoge. Ula Tolautau leads the way on the ground with 188 yards rushing and a TD. 

I’ll point out though that BYU has excelled in this spot for bettors of late, going 12-7 ATS when playing with six days rest, 8-7 ATS in its last 15 at home and 5-3 ATS in its last eight against the Mountain West, while Boise State has struggled in this position by going just 1-3 ATS in its last four when playing with two or more weeks of rest and only 5-7 ATS in its last 12 non-conference contests.

While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do think that the hungry/desperate home side will at the very least keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PUCK-LINE GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Dallas Stars (8:30 EST).

I think the talent and chemistry level discrepancies on the ice tonight absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 goals for the small “plus-money” return. 

The Golden Knights make their NHL debut and they’ll have Marc Andre Fleury in net. James Neal from the Predators is also one of the main stars of the team. Note though that Neal is listed as quetionable for this one, so if he does play, it will likely be at under 100% capacity.

Overall the offense looks decent for the Knights, but clearly the team will need some time to build chemistry. Calvin Pickard is Fleury’s backup.

Dallas missed the postseason last year, after finishing with the most points in the West the year before. 

The Stars added Alexander Radulov, who had 18 goals for the Habs last season. Ben Bishop was 18-20 with a 2.54 GAA for the Lightning and Kings last year and no doubt is a big upgrade between the pipes for Dallas on the whole. 

There will be on complacency or mercy from the Stars tonight after their dismal season in 2016/17. Here’s the perfect opponent to get untracked against. The book is still clearly out on the Vegas Knights, who I expect will stumble and throw up the white flag early in this one. Play on Dallas on the puck-line.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8:25 EST).

While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the improving home side to give the defending champs everything they can handle today. 

The Pats are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS, while Tampa is 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS.

It’s a short-week, which almost always benefits the home side (for obvious reasons.)

Last week the Bucs came from behind to beat the Giants 25-23, while New England comes to town off a humbling 33-30 setback at home to Carolina.

New England’s defense is a mess right now and I don’t foresee things getting easier in this hostile environment. The Pats’ struggled against the mobile Cam Newton, allowing him to throw for 316 yards and a three TD’s, as well as rush for 44 and another major score. Remember, the Pats also gave up 44 points to the Chiefs on Opening Night (I had KC in that one.)

And that doesn’t bode well facing the extremely mobile Jameis Winston who was 22 of 38 for 332 yards and three TD’s with no picks last week. RB Jacquizz Rodgers added 83 yards on the ground. 

The Bucs’ defense looked stout as well, allowing just 379 yards to the Giants.

Winston isn’t getting nearly enough respect in my opinion, as he’s going to be able to pick apart this Pats’ suspect secondary. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Buccaneers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on North Carolina State (7:00 EST).

Both teams are 4-1 SU/ATS. 

Louisville comes in off a 55-10 smashing of Murray State, while NC State hung on for a tough 33-25 victory at home over Syracuse last weekend. 

Note that this is a “revenge” game for the home side tonight after Louisville crushed the Wolfpack 54-13 at home last season. 

Louisville QB Lamar Jackson was 18 of 26 for 249 yards and three TD’s last week, while also rushing for 100 yards and another major score. Jackson has looked better the last two weeks after a loss to Clemson, but clearly the competition has been “vanilla.” 

The Cardinals defense looked horrible in the loss to the Tigers, but the unit has looked better the last two weeks against the weaker competition. 

NC State was in a potential letdown spot against the Orange last Saturday after a big road win at Florida State the previous weekend, but the Wolfpack were clicking early and went into the break with a 26-7 lead. Nyheim Hines had 115 rushing yards and a TD, while Jaylen Samuels had 74 yards and a major score. 

Pack’ QB Ryan Finley was 20 of 33 for 186 yards and a TD. Like the Cardinals, NC State has so far been very adept on both sides of the ball this season. 

Note though that Louisville is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten against teams with winning records and only 5-6 ATS in its last 11 on the road, while NC State is 2-1 ATS in its last three against clubs with winning records and 5-2 ATS after two or more consecutive SU victories.

Louisville has already shown to struggle against better teams and I believe that will once again be the case here. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on NC State.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* LEGEND is on Georgia Southern (8:00 EST).

Arkansas State is 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS, while Georgia Southern is 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS. 

Note that Georgia Southern plays with revenge tonight after Arkansas State pulled off the 27-26 home win with nine seconds left in the game last year. 

Both teams looked shaky in non-conference action, admittedly Georgia Southern even more than Arkansas State to this point, as it fell 22-12 to FCS New Hampshire back on September 9th. 

The Red Wolves are led by QB Justice Hansen, who so far has 985 yards, ten TD’s and two INT’s. In their 44-21 loss to SMU, Hansen was 16 of 26 for 234 yards and two TD’s. The defense looked horrible in allowing 580 yards, including 314 on the ground. 

The Eagles defense held the Hoosiers to just 11 of 22 passing for 185 yards on September 23rd, but stumbled against the run in allowing 283 yards on the ground to Indiana. 

Georgia Southern’s Triple Option offense was finally firing on all cylinders, producing 242 yards on the ground (five fumbles were the difference though.) QB Shai Wets so far has 230 yards and two TD’s passing, along with another 180 yards rushing. 

I’ll point out though that Georgia Southern is 3-1 ATS in its last four after three or more consecutive ATS losses, while Arkansas State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after allowing 44 points or more in its previous contest.

I like Georgia Southern to benefit from the extra time off between games and to build off its latest decent effort. 

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Opening Night Play (GOW) is the Minnesota Twins on the run-line (8:05 EST).

While I actually would not be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend laying the “pick-em” price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance.

The visitors hand the ball to Ervin Santana (16-8, 3.28 ERA) who comes in off a gem against the Tribe on Thursday, going five scoreless in the unfortunate no-decision. 

Santana has been solid across the board this season, but he’s been at his absolute best on the road this year by going 10-3 with a tiny 2.71 ERA. 

The home side counters with Luis Severino (14-6, 2.98) who gave up one run over six innings in a victory over the Rays on Wednesday. 

Like his counterpart today, Severino’s numbers have been red hot across the board, however it’s interesting to note that while he owns a 2.24 ERA on the road, he has just a 3.91 ERA at home.

I think Santana can match Severino inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I feel the value swings to the dog. Play on the Twins on the run-line.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Kansas City Chiefs (8:30 EST).

Washington is 2-1 SU/ATS, while Kansas City is 3-0 SU/ATS. 

I base my picks on many different things. For the most part with this selection, I simply feel it sets up great for Kansas City.

The Redskins are coming off back-to-back wins, including a satisfying 27-10 victory over the Raiders at home last Sunday night.

With its “bye” coming next week, it’s not too hard to imagine at all Washington getting caught “looking ahead” in some small way to its time off.

Conversely the Chiefs are on the road again next week for a tough one against suddenly surging Houston, making tonight’s contest all that much more important. 

As I said, from an overall situational stand point, they don’t get much better than this. 

If we look at what each of these teams have done over the first three weeks, clearly they’re very evenly matched up and down the board and on both ends of the field. 

Redskins’ QB Kirk Cousins and Chiefs’ pivot Alex Smith are a “wash.” The defenses have been probably even better than the offenses (and the offenses have been getting great production, both through the air on the ground.)

Two even teams, but the overall “situation” greatly favors the home side. I’ll also point out that the Redskins are in fact just 1-3 ATS in their last four after allowing ten points or more in their previous contest, while KC is 6-4 ATS in its last ten off a win against a division rival.

I expect KC to take advantage of the above listed factors and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NON-CONFERENCE BLOWOUT is on the Seattle Seahawks (8:30 EST).

Both teams enter at 1-2 SU, however the Seahawks are 0-3 ATS, while the Colts are 2-1 ATS.

Many experts believed the Seahwawks would be in the Super Bowl this year, but clearly the team has issues in all three phases right now. The offense has been anemic, especially in the red zone. The defense has been decent, but has been susceptible to giving up the big play.

However, the Andrew Luck-less Colts come to town contented after their first win of the season, holding off the Browns 31-28 at home last weekend. 

The Seahawks will now be looking to take advantage of this complacency and take out their frustrations after falling 33-27 on the road at Tennessee.

Indy forced three turnovers last Sunday, but it’s still just ranked 20th in scoring offense with 17.7 PPG, The defense is the worst in the entire league though, conceding 31 PPG thus far.

QB Jacoby Brissett is 39 of 64 for 526 yards, one TD and one INT, while RB Frank Gore leads the ground attack with 145 yards and two TD’s. 

Seattle averages just 16 PPG so far, but it’s ranked eighth overall in scoring defense in conceding 19.7 PPG.

Hawks’ QB Russell Wilson has 729 yards, five TD’s and no INT’s, while adding another 100 yards rushing as well. Doug Baldwin is Wilson’s top target with 20 catches for 212 yards and a TD. 

I’ll point out that Indianapolis has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors for a while though, going just 1-7 ATS in its last eight after scoring more than 30 points in its last game, while also going 0-4 ATS in its last four following a SU victory.

Conversely, Seattle has excelled in this position by going 5-1 ATS in its last six home games against a club with a losing record.

There’s no team in the league right now that’s under-performed more than the Seahawks to this point. Clearly they can’t be happy whatsoever. 

But here’s the perfect opponent to get untracked against. The Colts picked up their backup QB just before the season began. Beating the Browns at home is one thing, but competing with this highly motivated Seahawks team which is playing with a chip on its shoulder in front of the home town crowd is quite another. 

I have a hard time seeing the Colts mustering much offense this week and I expect Wilson to finally have a break out signature performance. Lay the points with confidence, play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Giants at 4:05 ET.

It's Week 4 of the 2017 NFL season but Tampa Bay has played just two games (1-1), as its Week 1 contest against Miami was postponed due to Hurricane Irma. The Buccaneers welcome the win-less NY Giants (0-3) to Raymond James Stadium this Sunday for a game in which it's fair to say, both teams badly need to win. The Giants are looking to avoid an 0-4 start for the first time since 2013 and a loss here would all but 'bury' them in an NFC East division in which all three rivals sit 2-1 after three games. Expectations for the Bucs were high coming into 2017 but in the NFC South, the Falcons are already 3-0 and the Panthers 2-1, so a 1-2 start to a season in which the team will play the rest of the year without the benefit of bye, would likely not bode well.

The Giants' offense finally got going in the fourth quarter last Sunday, as Eli threw three TD passes and New York rallied for 24 points. However, Philadelphia PK Jake Elliott's made a 61-yard FG on the game's final play, giving the Eagles the 27-24 win. The Giants hadn't scored 20 points in eight straight games before Manning led them to 21 points in a span of 5:21. He tossed TD passes of 10 yards and four yards to Odell Beckham Jr. to tie it at 14. Manning then connected over the middle to Shepard, who broke a couple tackles and sprinted all the way for a 21-14 lead. However, it was all for naught, as Elliott, who hadn't made a FG of more than 40 yards in an NFL game prior to Sunday, connected on the longest game-winner in NFL history for a rookie and a franchise record for Philly (it's tied for the third-longest game-winning kick in the final 10 seconds in NFL history!). The Giants own the NFL's worst rushing offense (48.7 YPG) and so far, its defense has not looked like the dominating unit from 2016.

Tampa Bay also owns a poor running game, averaging just 71.5 YPG (26th). QB QB Jameis Winston has completed 65.7 percent of his passes for 532 yards with three TDs and three interceptions. However, as we saw against the Vikings last Sunday, he still has a tendency to force the ball into tight windows (Minny had three INTs!). The Tampa Bay defense has to be a worry, as last week it allowed a whopping 494 yards to a Minnesota team with Case Keenum at QB (entered the game 9-16 as an NFL starter). Keenum threw for 369 yards and three TDs (zero INTs), completing 25 of 33. Are you kidding me? The week before, the Bucs faced former QB Mike Glennon (was 5-14 as a NFL starter entering that contest), now with the Bears.

Against those two "marginal" QBs (I'm being kind here), the Bucs have allowed 329.5 YPG passing after two games, ranking 31st of 32 teams. Also, the pass rush has produced just one sack. Eli's OL is a worry but the Bucs don't seem all that suited to pressure him. The Giants came excruciatingly close to their first victory last Sunday and the team will either bounce-back from that near-win, or let it derail its season with another losing effort. Considering that Tampa Bay is just 2-8 ATS it last 10 as a home favorite, my bet says the Giants rebound.

Good luck...Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Jets (1:00 EST).

Both teams come off victories. Jacksonville smashed Baltimore 44-7 in London last week. Now the Jags have to transition back to America for another road game and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a predictable “letdown” in this spot.

Conversely, New York is primed for another big effort here after knocking off the Dolphins 20-6 at home last Sunday.

Jags’ QB Blake Bortles had 244 passing yards and four TD’s last weekend, while the Jacksonville defense held the Ravens scoreless until the final possession of the game. RB Leonard Fournette had 59 rushing yards and a TD as well. 

Jacksonville looked great in an opening week win over Houston as well, only to then lay an egg at home in Week 2 against the Titans. Consistency from week to week is still a problem in my opinion.

The Jets held the Dolphins to just 225 total yards and I think the unit is going to have another big day against the road weary Jags’ offense. New York QB Josh McCown had 249 passing yards and a TD, while RB Bilal Powell added 37 rushing yards and a TD. 

The Jets would completely shut down the Dolphins run game, holding Jay Ajayi to 16 yards on 11 carries. 

I’ll point out as well that the Jags are in fact 0-2 ATS in their last two as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while New York is 5-3 ATS in its last eight as an underdog in the same points range.

Bortles had a big game last week, but I think he stumbles here against this vastly underrated Jets’ defensive unit. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Browns (1:00 EST).

While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can, as I expect the home side to keep this one competitive from start to finish.

The Bengals are getting too much respect in this position, considering their 0-3 in my opinion. QB Andy Dalton has been poor with 606 yards, two TD’s and four INT’s. 

Browns’ rookie QB DeShone Kizer can empathize, he has 646 yards, three TD’s and seven INT’s. 

The Bengals fell 27-24 in OT in Green Bay on Sunday, blowing a late 21-7 lead. Dalton had 212 passing yards and two TD’s. WR AJ Green was a bright spot with 111 receiving yards and a TD. 

Cincinnati though lost the yardage battle 344-301.

The Browns also come in off a nali-biting loss, falling 31-28 to the Colts in OT on Sunday. 

Expectations and pressure is a lot lower on Kizer and company than Dalton and his crew, so the setback is clealry a positive for this young Browns team. Kizer did finish with 242 passing yards and two TD’s (also three INT’s.)

Duke Johnson Jr. had 81 yards on six catches for the Browns, while Kenny Britt had 54 yards and a TD. 

The Browns offense can put points on the board and the team is just as skilled as the Bengals are in all three phases. As mentioned off the top, with the way that Dalton is playing right now, I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset in this one (but as also mentioned above, make sure to grab the points!)

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (1:00 EST).

I use many different techniques when handicapping throughout the season. Sometimes for me its all about the players on the field, but other times its about stats or situations.

And that for the most part is the case here. The Ravens are coming off a humiliating 44-7 loss in England and while they looked great over their first two games, I think they’re set up for another letdown here after transitioning back State side. 

The Steelers are also coming off a loss, falling 23-17 in OT to lowly Chicago.

QB Ben Roethlisberger was 22 of 29 for 235 yards and a TD, while also adding a six-yard rush and losing a fumble.

Roethlisberger has been decent, but not great to open the season. But with Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and pass-catching RB Le’Veon Bell, I think it’s just a matter of time before “Big Ben” returns to form.

After two decent outings, Ravens’ QB Joe Flacco was a disaster last weekend, completing eight passes for 28 yards and two INT’s. 

Flacco is playing behind a banged-up offensive line and it was finally exposed in this one as he was forced to continually settle for check downs. Note that the Ravens only scored on the final possession of the game, long after backup Ryan Mallett had taken over. 

The Steelers did play well defensively last week and I think that’s going to spell big trouble once again for Flacco and company this afternoon.

Additionally I’ll point out that Pittsburgh is interestingly 5-3 ATS in its last eight games played in the month of October, while Baltimore is just 1-7 ATS in the same position.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Steelers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on Troy (7:00 EST).

I feel this is a few too many points to be giving up here. Troy won its third straight with a 22-17 win at home over Akron, but so far the Trojans are 0-4 ATS. 

LSU comes in off a 35-26 home win over Syracuse last weekend.

Troy came out and went 97 yards in nine plays to score the game winning TD in two minutes last weekend. 

So far Troy is ranked 97th in scoring offense with 24 PPG, while ranked 25th in scoring defense in coneding just 18 points per contest. QB Brandon Silvers has 1,084 passing yards, two TD’s and two picks. RB Jamarius Harris has 198 yards and three major scores.

LSU led by 18 twice in the third quarter and had to hold on for dear life down the stretch last Saturday. So far the Tigers are ranked 78th in the nation in scoring with an average of 28.5 PPG, while ranked 27th in conceding 18.3 

Tigers’ QB Danny Etling has 723 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s, while RB Darrel Williams has 251 yards and five TD’s thus far. 

I’ll point out though that Troy is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games against a team wih a winning home record, while LSU is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four in front of the home town crowd.

Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle” a little on they money line? I am not. I simply feel this is too many points to be giving up to this underrated Troy team. I like the Trojans’ stout defense to keep the visitors competitive in this one late. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Boston College (1:00 EST).

CMU is 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS, while BC is 1-3 SU/ATS.

The Chips won their first two games of the season, but have since lost two straight, combining for just 31 points in the setbacks. Last week Central Michigan fell 31-14 to Miami Ohio. QB Shan Morris had 195 yards passing with one TD and two INT’s. Jonathan Ward led the way with 56 rushing yards. Over the last two games Ward has averaged just 3.3 YPC.

BC won its opener, but has since lost three straight. The Eagles average just 15 PPG thus far. The Eagles lost to No. 2 ranked Clemson 34-7 last weekend, but it’s worthy to note that they were tied at seven after the third quarter. 

BC forced two turnovers, while also committing two itself. QB Anthony Brown had 133 yards, one INT and no TD’s. RB AJ Dillon has 115 rushing yards over his last two games. 

I’ll point out though that CMU is just 1-4 ATS in its last five non-conference games and just 1-5 ATS in its last six on the road, while BC is 7-2-1 ATS in its las ten against the MAC.

The Eagles have played a much tougher schedule and I look for the ACC team to assert itself in front of the home town crowd. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on Pittsburgh (12:00 EST).

Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a rout from start to finish in this one. 

The Panthers are going to be the more desperate team as they look to snap a three-game slide, with consecutive setbacks to Penn State, Oklahoma State and Georgia Tech. 

The Owls can empathize, as they’ve lost two straight, most recently to Houston and Florida International.

Rice QB Sam Glaesmann had an injury last weekend and his status for this one is up in the air as well. If he does play, clearly he won’t be at 100%. Jackson Tyner was 15 of 26 for 131 yards with no TD’s and one INT in the listless 13-7 loss to FIU. 

So far Rice ranks 118th in averaging just 292 YPG. 

Panthers’ QB Max Browne splite time with sophomore Ben DiNucci last weekend. Browne was 10 of 15 for 88 yards. 

Pittsburgh is a young team and the secondary is a weak point, but clearly the unit catches a break this week in facing the Owls anemic offense.

The home field advantage factor can’t be overlooked here I don’t think. Neither can the fact that Rice is dealing with an injured starting QB and an offense which so far has done absoluely nothing.

I like the home side to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Washington State (10:30 EST).

While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the home side to at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final moments.

USC enters off a 30-20 road win over Cal, while Washington State knocked off Oregon State 52-23 at home. 

Trojans’ QB Sam Darnold has already thrown seven INT’s over his last four games. Darnold was 26 of 38 for 223 yards, two TD’s and a pick in last week’s win. USC though posted just 356 total yards, while allowing Cal to accumulate 416. 

USC averages 492 yards on offense and concedes 370.2 on defense.

Last week Washington State jumped out to a big lead and then never looked back. QB Luke Falk was 36 of 47 for 478 yards and five TD’s with no picks. So far he has 14 TD’s to just one INT.

The offense averages over 500 yards per game, while the defense has been fantastic as well, allowing just 263.2 YPG thus far.

I’ll point out that USC is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 on the road and just 7-9 ATS in its last 16 against teams with winning records, while Washignton State is 10-7 ATS in its last 17 at home and 7-4 ATS in its last 11 against teams with winning records.

For all the reasons listed above, play on Washington State.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on BYU (8:00 EST).

Enough is enough as far as BYU is concerned, as it’ll be looking to get off the schneid and break a three-game losing streak. 

BYU most recently is coming off losses to LSU, Utah and Wisconsin. 

Utah State has alternated wins with losses, most recently crushing San Jose State 61-10 last weekend.

BYU lost a bunch of playmakers on offense in the offseason, including QB Taysom Hill and RB Jamaal Williams, but the unit was expected to be better than what it’s shown so far. 

The Cougars have so far averaged just 9.8 PPG this year: “We have a long ways to go, but we have a lot of season left to play, so we will take advantage of the bye week and try to help ourselves get better so we can win games,” head coach Kalani Sitake assessed. “If we want to be as good as these great teams, we need to play them.”

Utah State’s awesome defensive numbers are a bit skewed I think, considering the competition. Last week QB Kent Myers had 271 yards through the air, while the run game finished with 318. 

Despite that though I’ll point out that BYU is 4-1 ATS in its last five against the Mountain West and 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 after scoring fewer than 20 points in its previosu outing, while Utah State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five at home and only 3-7 ATS in its last ten non-conference contests.

I like the desperate Cougars to utilize their size at the line. After last week’s big win, I also believe the Aggies come in a bit content and flat-footed. I’m laying the points.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Miami Florida (7:00 EST).

Last week the Hurricanes thumped Toledo 52-30. The Blue Devils enter off a tough 27-17 road win over UNC and suffice it to say, I think the home side is primed for a letdown here.

And if recent history is any precidence, then Miami Florida has to be loving its chances today, because when these teams met on the field of play last year, it was the Canes that strolled to a relatively simple 40-21 victory.

Miami trailed 16-10 at the half last week, showing some rust in the first after a two week layoff due to Hurricane Irma. The Canes finally got it together in the second half though, scoring the first 28 points out of the break. 

Hurricanes’ QB Malik Rosier was 26 of 37 for 333 yards, three TD’s and an INT, while Mark Walton rushed for 204 yards and a TD. So far the offense is ranked fifth in the nation in scoring with an average of 46.6 PPG. The defense has held its own, ranked 47th in allowing 21.5 PPG.

Duke is 4-0, but now faces its stiffest test to date. The Blue Devils held the Tar Heels to 377 yards. The offense put up 388 yards. QB Daniel Jones was serviceable by going 18 of 34 for 204 yards and a TD. 

So far the Blue Devils are ranked 23rd in scoring with 40.5 PPG, while ranked 17th in the nation in conceding just 15.2 PPG.

I’ll point out though that the Hurricanes have excelled in this spot for bettors, goign 17-5 ATS in their last 22 following a SU victory of 20 points or more, while Duke has struggled against Miami whenever these teams have met, going just 1-7 ATS the last eight in this series.

Miami’s offense is much better than UNC’s and I ultimately believe Rosier is going to be a difference maker tonight. In a back and forth affair, I look for the high-powered Hurricanes to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Green Bay Packers (8:25 EST).

Lambeau is a tough spot to play in and suffice it to say, I think the Bears are going to predictably stumble here.

Chicago looks primed for a letdown after its upset win at home over Pittsburgh last week. Green Bay also won in OT, coming from behind to knock off the Bengals 27-24 at home.

Purely from a situational stand point, there’s no question that this one favors the Packers. Both teams off hard-fought OT victories, now have to transition to the short week for the nationally televised Thursday night game. The short week almost always favors the home side and certainly in this spot, Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers has an immense amount of experience in these scenarios.

The Bears got 138 rushing yards from Jordan Howard in their upset victory over Pittsburgh. Chicago’s passing game has been a disaster though because of injury. QB Mike Glennon was 19 of 22 for 101 yards last week and was also sacked twice and threw a pick.

That type of play simply isn’t going to get the job done this week against a now re-focused Packers team led by Rogers, who had 313 yards with three TD’s last Sunday. The running game looked weak, but the defense was decent in holding the Bengals to just 301 total yards. 

I’ll point out as well that Chicago is just 8-9 ATS in its last 17 on the road, while Green Bay is 12-7 ATS in its last 19 in front of the home town crowd.

I think the Bears are content with their big victory, while the Packers are eager to atone for their near upset loss last Sunday. Lay the points with confidence, play on Green Bay.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* BIG 12 GAME OF THE MONTH is on Texas (8:00 EST).

Texas will be eager to return to the winners circle after a frustrating 27-24 OT loss to USC. Iowa State on the other hand looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after its 42-14 win over Akron. 

And if recent history is any precedence, then the Longhorns have to be liking their chances for a bounce back this weekend, because when these teams met last year it was Texas that cruised to the convincing 27-6 road victory. 

Longhorns’ QB Sam Ehlinger was 21 of 40 for 298 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s. The ground game was the issue though, posting just 68 yards on 35 carries. WR Collin Johnson was unstoppable, making seven catches for 191 yards. 

Perhaps most impressively though was the way the Texas defense played, considering the high-powered opponent they were up against, limiting USC to 468 total yards (OT as well), as well as making two INT’s and three sacks.

Cyclones’ QB Jacob Park was 24 of 33 for 317 yards and two TD’s last week. So far Park has 935 yards passing. RB David Montgomery also had a big day, posting 127 rushing yards.

The ISU defense also looked good last week, holding Akron to 331 total yards, including just 38 on the ground. 

Park is an amazing talent, but I still think that Texas is better through all three phases of the game. The Longhorns just took the Trojans down to the wire and I think the team carries that impressive momentum over into this one for a convincing victory. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Arizona Cardinals (8:30 EST).

Both teams come into this at 1-1 SU. The Cards have yet to play a home game, so there’s no question that that atmosphere is going to be electric in the building tonight. 

The Cowboys didn’t do so well in a similar environment, albeit at Mile High on Sunday Night last weekend, getting crushed 42-17 by the Broncos. 

After losing in Detroit in Week 1, Arizona finally got untracked and posted a victory in Indianapolis last weekend. 

The Cowboys’ offensive line was a strength last year, but it looked shaky last Sunday. In fact, the entire Dallas offensive unit looked out of sorts. 

The defense is also now a major issue, with several key injuries in the secondary.

And that doesn’t bode well facing Carson Palmer at home. Palmer had 332 passing yards last week to go along with a TD and INT. 

Cowboys’ QB Dak Prescott threw two INT’s last week and he faces another stiff test, as last weekend the Cardinals allowed 190 passing yards and just 76 rushing yards.

I’ll point out that Dallas is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games, while the underdog is 4-0 ATS the last four in this series.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Cardinals.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* SUPER SHOCKER is on the Washington Redskins (8:30 EST).

While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I think the home side will at the very least, take this one down to the wire. 

This is a long trip for the Raiders to make cross country. Throw in the national spot light and there’s no doubt that this one favors the Redskins from a situational stand point.

Oakland comes in off a 45-20 win over the Jets at home on Sunday, while Washington enters off a hard-fought 27-20 road victory over the Rams (which seems even more impressive now after what LA put up against San Francisco on Thursday night.)

So far the Raiders are 14th in the league in passing with 240 yards per contest and lead the league overall in scoring with 33.5 PPG. The defense is ranked tenth in conceding 18 PPG. QB Derek Carr has 492 yards, five TD’s and no INT’s so far this year. 

RB Marshawn Lynch has 121 yards and a TD thus far. 

Washington had 229 rushing yards against LA, while throwing just 27 passes. The Redskins got two turnovers and committed zero. 

So far Washington is ranked 13th in scoring with 22 points per game and 26th on the defensive side in conceding 25. QB Kirk Cousins has 419 yards with two TD’s and no INT’s. Cousins is surrounded by a bunch of offensive weapons on the ground and in the receiving game. 

I’ll point out as well that Oakland is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Washington is 15-8 ATS in its last 23 when playing the role of underdog.

I think the Raiders finally stumble here and I expect Cousins to have his best game of the year to this point. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:05 EST).

The Seahawks enter off a hard-fought 12-6 win over San Francisco, which now doesn’t seem so bad after what the 49ers put up against the Rams on Thusday night, while the Titans got the better of Jacksonville 37-16 on the road. 

The Hawks struggled in their opening game in Green Bay and then had to hold on for dear life against the 49ers. So far Seattle’s defense has been stout and will remain a strength of the team moving forward (13 PPG conceded thus far.) 

QB Russell Wilson was 23 of 49 for 198 yards and a TD last weekend. So far Wilson has struggled this season.

The silver lining for the Hawks’ offense last week was that it did have 131 rushing yards.

Tennessee looked poor against Oakland and great against Jacksonville. So how should we judge the Titans at this point?

It’s difficult and the sample size is too small. We’ll absolutely have a much better idea where the team truly stands after this weekend though. The Seahawks are a dangerous team, one which will be getting after Titants’ QB Macus Mariota throughout. 

Wilson will also be looking to atone for some early lacklustre play.

Additionally I’ll point out that Seattle is 2-1 ATS in its last three off a win against a division rival, while Tennessee is 0-2 ATS in its last two in the same position.

While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Seahawks.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week 3 Las Vegas Insider is on the Ind Colts at 1:05 ET.

The Browns and Colts meet Sunday at the Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, with both teams looking to avoid 0-3 starts to the 2017 season. The Browns fought hard in a season-opening 21-18 home loss to the Steelers but were much worse last Sunday, losing 24-10 in Baltimore to the Ravens. The Colts 'flipped that script,' getting routed 46-9 out in LA against the Rams in Week 1, before losing 16-13 in OT last Sunday at home to the Arizona Cardinals. 

Browns rookie QB DeShone Kizer had a solid season debut, going 20 of 30 for 222 yards with one TD and one INT (85.7 QB rating), while also adding 17 rushing yards and a TD run. However, he suffered through a 'nightmare' of a game this past Sunday, interrupted with a migraine headache in the second quarter after four ineffective series; a three-and-out, a lost fumble, an interception and a punt. Kevin Hogan replaced him and went 5 of 11 for 118 yards with one TD and one INT. Kizer said the headaches are hereditary and that he hasn't had one crop up in a game since high school. He received medication, underwent concussion protocol, and finally received clearance to return in the third quarter with Baltimore up 21-10. He would finish 15 of 31 for 182 yards without a TD pass, three INTs and a lost fumble (27.3 QB rating). Once again, the Browns are showing no signs of a running game, averaging 75.0 YPG on 3.3 YPC. A silver lining is a defense that's allowed 22.5 PPG on 313.5 YPG, after allowing 28.3 PPG on 392.4 YPG last season.

Luck remains sidelined and the Colts decided that Scott Tolzein was not an option, so the quickly traded for New England's Jacoby Brissett. It was anybody’s guess as to how Brissett would play because last week was his first week that he ran the first-team offense in practice. He was still wearing a wristband with the play calls on it during the games. However, all in all, he showed plenty of promise. Yes, the interception he threw in OT set up the Cards' game-winning FG but as RB Frank Gore noted, "He's going to be just fine. He played the with type of confidence where you would have never guessed he’s only been here for a little bit.” Brissett was 22 of 40 for 267 yards, zero TDs and that one 'killer' interception. After allowing 46 points against the Rams, the Colts D held the Cards to just 16 points.

The Indianapolis Colts need a victory here in order to avoid their first 0-3 start since the 2011 season and the Browns could play the perfect foil. Cleveland is off a 1-15 season and enters on a 14-game road losing streak, last winning a road game back in October of 2015! I realize that Brissett has thrown 92 passes in the regular season without a TD pass but he's got an excellent target in T.Y. Hilton plus TE Doyle has 10 catches (on just 11 targets) in his first two games. As for the Colts D, if it can hold the Cards to 16 points (in OT), the struggling Browns shouldn't be much of a problem. The fact that the Colts have won SEVEN of their last eight games against the Browns, makes taking Indy even easier, as does the fact that Cleveland is just 1-20 SU in its last 21 road games!

Good luck...Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Denver Broncos (1:00 EST).

Denver comes in with a ton of momentum after destroying the Cowboys 42-17 last week.

Buffalo though has for the most part been a disaster after two weeks, barely holding on for a victory over the lowly Jets in Week 1, before suffering a 9-3 loss to Carolina last weekend (lucky in my opinion to have even covered the spread in that one.) 

Broncos’ QB Trevor Simien decimated the Cowboys vaunted defense for 231 passing yards and four TD’s to just one INT. RB CJ Anderson had 118 rushing yards on 25 carries. WR Demaryius Thomas had six catches for 71 yards. 

Both the run game and the passing game are firing on all cylinders right now for Denver.

But not to be outdone, the Broncos look even better on the defensive side of the ball, last week holding the Cowboys offense to a mere 268 total yards, including RB Ezekiel Elliot to just eight yards on nine carries. Von Miller was impressive with two sacks and two tackles for a loss. 

Bills’ QB Tyrod Taylor was just 17 of 25 for 126 passing yards, along with 55 rushing yards in last week’s pathetic effort. RB LeSean McCoy had a paltry nine yards on 12 carries. 

Buffalo’s silver lining so far this year has been on the defensive side of the ball, allowing a total of just 255 total yards last week and posting six sacks on Cam Newton.

But now that unit faces a white hot Broncos unit, one which I think will dominate and expose a group which has yet to be truly tested this year. 

I’ll point out as well that Devner is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four after accumulating more than 150 rushing yards in its previous game, while Buffalo is just 7-17 ATS in its last 24 after allowing 15 points or less in its previous contest.

Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a rout from start to finish, play on the Broncos.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST).

It’s a short week for Detroit, which beat the Giants on Monday night. Atlanta also comes in at 2-0, beating Chicago and then Green Bay (both convincingly.)

Atlanta has looked impressive in the early going, not succumbing to a “hang over” after last year’s devastating Super Bowl loss. Matt Ryan and the offense, both the receivers and RB’s, look like they haven’t lost a step whatsoever.

And the Falcons have also looked sharp defensively, coming out on top in two tough games to open the season.

Detroit has also looked good, getting by a struggling Giants team 24-10 on Monday. QB Matt Stafford was 15 of 21 for 122 yards and two TD’s. 

The Lions had the early lead and turned to the run game through most of it, accumulating 138 yards.

The defense looked stout as well by sacking Eli Manning five times and holding New York to 270 yards of offense. 

But stopping Manning and the Giants’ impotent offensive line is one thing, while slowing down the gun-slinging Matty Ice and the Falcons’ high-flying offense is quite another. 

I’ll point out as well that ATL is 8-2 ATS in its last ten road games, while Detroit is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven against the NFC.

The Falcons did a great job of containing Rodgers, so I have a hard time seeing Stafford doing much better. Atlanta could be a much bigger fav in this spot I think. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* BIG-TEN PERFECT STORM is on Iowa (7:30 EST).

Penn State has so far dominated to open the 2017/18 campaign, going 3-0 and giving up just 14 points in the process. 

Iowa is also 3-0 and comes in off an easy victory over North Texas last weekend.

Note that this sets up as a “triple-revenge” scenario for the Hawkeyes.

Last year the Nittany Lions won 41-14. So far Penn State has averaged 47 points through the first three games, most recently handling Georgia State 56-0. QB Trace McSorely was 18 of 23 for 309 yards and a TD, while RB Saquon Barkley had four catches for 142 yards and a TD. 

Iowa also looked sharp in its 31-14 win over North Texas, going for 21 unanswered points in the second half. In all three different backs recorded double-digit carries for the Hawkeyes. Toren Young led the charge with 78 yards on 19 carries, while Ivory Kelly-Martin had 74 yards and two TD’s. 

QB Nathan Stanley was 16 of 27 for 197 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s. 

I’ll point out that Penn State has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 1-2 ATS in its last three as a road favorite of 10.5 to 14 points, while Iowa has excelled by going 3-1 ATS in its last four against teams with winning records.

Iowa is always tough at home and while I’m obviously not calling for an outright upset, I do think that the Hawkeyes can keep this one competitive late. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* MOUNTAIN-WEST PERFECT STORM is on Air Force (7:00 EST).

SDSU upset Stanford and has broken into the Top 25 because of it. Suffice it to say, I think this conference matchup sets up as a classic letdown spot for the Aztecs after their big upset win.

Air Force on the other hand will be eager to return to form after falling to Michigan late last weekend.

But as stated off the top, after back-to-back win over Pac-12 opponents, I think SDSU comes out flat here. 

In all SDSU posted 353 yards against Standford, while limiting the Cardinal to just 80 passing yards. Stanford also uncharacteristically turned the ball over three times.

San Diego State QB Christian Chapman was 21 of 29 for 187 yards and a TD, while RB Rashad Penny had 175 yards. 

The Falcons fell away late in their 29-13 setback to Michigan. Air Force only tried one pass and completed it, a 64 yarder by QB Arion Worthman to Ronald Cleveland. The Falcons though had 168 rushing yards. 

SDSU is playing pretty good defensively right now, but it still doesn’t possess a Power Five-caliber line, so I’m expecting Air Force’s option offense to look a lot better tonight.

I’ll point out as well that San Diego State is just 2-4 ATS in its last six as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Air Force is 7-2 ATS in its last nine as an underdog.

SDSU is 6-1 ATS in the last seven in this series, but I think this lop-sided trend starts to correct itself this evening. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* ACC PERFECT STORM is on Pittsburgh (12:20 EST).

Pittsburgh won its opener but has dropped its last two games, both against Top 10 teams, getting outscored 92-35 in the process. 

Georgia Tech lost by one point to Tennesee in Week 1, before then earning a victory over lowly Jacksonville State in its most recent. The Yellow Jackets’ game against UCF was cancelled because of Hurricane Irma last week, so the possibilty of “rest” leading to “rust” is a very real factor in my opinion.

Georgia Tech’s offense is completely centered around the run, currently ranked first in the nation with 372.5 rushing yards per game, while ranked just 123rd in passing yards per contest.

The Panthers gave up 572 passing yards to Oklahoma State last week, but just 104 on the ground. Clearly the visitors’ gassed secondary catches a big break this week though with the Yellow Jackets’ run heavy offensive scheme. 

Pitt QB Ben Dinucci had 228 yards and a TD, but he had two INT’s as well. Overall the Panthers had 103 rushing yards.

Georgia Tech had 210 yards rushing against Jacksonville State, while holding JSU to just 189 total yards and three turnovers. 

In their first game the Yellow Jackets posted 535 rushing yards in what turned out to be a heart-wrenching double OT loss to Tennessee. 

Ultimately though I think Pittsburgh comes in and at the right moment, catching a Georgia Tech team flat-footed after the extra time off. 

I’ll point out as well that the underdog and the road team are 4-0 ATS in the last four games in this series.

Grab as many points as you can, play on Pittsburgh.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF MONTH is on Virginia (8:00 EST).

Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle” a little on the money line? I’m not at all. I do think however that the Cavs can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. 

Virginia enters off a 38-18 home win over UConn on Saturday, while Boise State enters off a 28-14 home victory over New Mexico last Thursday. 

The Cavs had a 24-0 halftime lead and never looked back last weekend, outgaining the Huskies 626-432. 

So far Virginia is 17th in the country in passing with 325.3 YPG and 83rd overall in scoring with 27.7 points. The Cavs have been even better defensively though so far, allowing just 20.7 PPG. 

QB Kurt Benkert has 976 yards, seven TD’s to just one INT thus far, while RB Jordan Ellis has 219 total yards and three major scores to this point.

Boise State led by just 14-7 after three quarters last week, before pulling away in the fourth. Note that the Broncos won the game despite being outgained 277-264, by losing the first down battle 18-12 and the time of possession 33:04 to 26:56. 

So far Boise State is ranked 60th in scoring with 32 PPG, while ranked 69th in scoring defense in conceding 24.7.

Broncos’ QB Montell Cozard is 33 of 48 for 348 yards, five TD’s and one INT, while also leading the team in rushing with 179 yards.

Note though that Virginia is 7-3 ATS in its last ten on the road, while Boise State is just 2-11 ATS in its last 13 at home. 

Ultimately I feel the Cavs offense can keep this one close, giving the visitors a chance for an upset at the end. I’m grabbing the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the San Francisco 49ers (8:25 EST).

While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can.

The 49ers weren’t expecting to make the playoffs this year, but at 0-3 and with a three-game road trip on deck, Thursday night essentially becomes a “must win” game for San Francisco.

It’s a short week as well, which always favors the home side no matter the situation. 

LA looked good in beating an Andrew Luck-less Colts team, but came back down to Earth in last week’s 27-20 setback at home to the Redskins. 

There’s no question that the Rams look better under new coach Sean McVay, but they haven’t gotten around the corner quite yet.

LA QB Jared Goff was just 15 of 24 for 224 yards and one TD, while RB Todd Gurley had 88 yards and a score in last week’s setback.

In San Francisco’s 9-6 loss in Seattle QB Brian Hoyer was 15 of 27 for just 99 yards. However, RB Carlos Hyde had 124 yards on 15 carries. 

The big news of course was San Francisco’s defense though, which looked very good for a second straight week; make sure to keep your eyes on LB NaVorro Bowman, who had ten tackles on Sunday.

I’ll point out as well that the Rams are just 1-3 ATS in their last four as a road fav of three points or less, while the 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five as a home dog of three points or less.

A great oveall “situational” play which is backed by strong and relevant trends. I like the more desperate team to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on San Francisco.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on South Florida (7:00 EST).

Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a rout from start to finish in this one.

Temple is coming off a 29-21 home victory over Massachusetts, while South Florida stormed to a 47-23 home victory over Illinois last weekend.

Note that the Bulls play with revenge today after the Owls scored the 46-30 victory in the series last year.

Last week Temple QB Logan Marchi was 22 of 37 for 248 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s. Marchi has put the team on his back and so far has 767 passing yards and a 5/0 TD/INT ratio. RB Ryquell Armstead had 81 yards on 17 carries.

The Owls defense looked a little shaky though, while they did only allow 61 rushing yards, the secondary was exposed in allowing 377 passing yards. 

Bulls’ QB Quinton Flowers was 15 of 27 for 280 yards, four TD’s and one INT in last week’s rout. So far Flowers has 678 passing yards and an 8/2 TD/INT ratio. Note though that Flowers also has 243 rushing yards. 

RB Darius Tice had 105 yards on 12 carries last weekend. 

The USF defense also looked stout, allowing 354 total yards to the Fighting Illini, including a 6 for 15 mark on third downs. 

I think it’s interesting to note as well that Temle is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a road dog in the 17.5 to 21 points range, while USF is 6-3 ATS in its last nine as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range.

I think the Bulls’ defense will prove to be a big difference maker today. Lay the points with confidence, play on USF.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* 34-Club Play is on the New York Giants (8:30 EST).

I think New York is the more “desperate” side tonight and ultimately I believe this will prove to be a deciding factor in the final outcome of this game. 

The Giants came out flat in their 19-3 Opening Week loss to the Cowboys. That was without WR Odell Beckham Jr. though.

The Lions rallied from a 17-9 deficit in the third quarter to win 35-23 over the Cardinals in Week 1. 

But if recent history is any precedence though, then New York has to be liking its chances for a bounce back performance tonight,because when these teams met in December last year, it was the Giants which prevailed 17-6 at home.

Detroit QB Matt Stafford was 29 of 41 for 292 yards, four TD’s and a pick last week. The ground game did virtually nothing though, which does make the Lions’ offense very one-dimensional and thus, pretty easy to game-plan against (finished by averaging just 81.9 YPG on the ground last year.) Golden Tate was another standout with 107 yards receiving. 

Giants’ veteran QB Eli Manning had a terrible night in Week 1, finishing 29 of 38 for 220 yards and a pick. New York fell behind early and was forced to abandon the run. Manning himself was forced to throw a lot of short dump passes, as he was constantly under pressure. 

The silver lining for New York though was its overall play on the defensive end, holding Dallas to under 20 points and just 392 total yards of offense. 

I’ll also point out that Detroit is just 7-9 ATS in its last 16 on the road and only 10-13 ATS when playing the role of underdog, while New York is 9-6 ATS in its last 15 at home and 9-7 ATS in its last 16 as a favorite.

OBJ is back and that makes the Giants very dangerous offensively. Detroit’s achilles heel is its play on the road and I expect that to be the case again here.

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Dallas Cowboys (4:25 EST).

Dallas looked dominant in all three phases in its victory over the Giants in Week 1, while the Broncos had to hold on for dear life in their Opening Week victory over division rival San Diego. 

The Cowboys’ Ezekiel Elliot had 104 yards rushing and caught five passes for 36 yards last week. QB Dak Prescott was 24 of 39 for 268 yards and a TD to TE Jason Witten. 

Denver’ QB Trevor Simien was 17 of 28 for 219 yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. RB CJ Anderson had 81 yards on 20 carries. 

The Broncos would also give up three TD passes to Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers, getting outscored 14-0 in the fourth quarter.

I’ll point out as well that Dallas is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 follwing a victory, while Denver is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against clubs with winning records.

Even though the Cowboys didn’t dominate offensively last week, the special teams and defense was on point. Denver on the other hand looked shaky offensively and then fell apart defensively down the stretch as well. That doesn’t bode well facing this dangerous and confident Cowboys side.

The correct call in this one is on Dallas.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week 2 Las Vegas Insider is on the Ten Titans at 1:00 ET.

The Tennessee Titans went 9-7 last season, missing the postseason by losing a tie-breaker to the Houston Texans for the AFC South title. However, with Marcus Mariota coming off a solid season (19-10 TD to INT ratio) and RB Marco Murray running for 1,287 yards as both offensive stars operated behind an outstanding OL, many felt as if the Titans would be "the team to beat" in the AFC South in 2017. However, the Titans lost 26-16 at home to the Raiders last Sunday (note: the Raiders are a VERY good team!). As for the Jags, since an 8-8 season back in 2010, the team opened 2017 as the owners of six consecutive losing seasons, going 22-74 (.229), overall. So what did the Jags do last Sunday? Their D accumulated 10 sacks and held the Houston Texans (coming off back-to-back AFC South titles) to a single TD and 203 total yards in a dominating 29-7 victory. So much for preseason expectations.

That said, I'm not even close to ready to bail on the Titans after that opening-week loss. Mariota has the ability to wheel out of trouble unlike Houston's Savage and while Watson does have that ability, he came in down 19-0 and the Jags just "kept coming." In his first-ever regular season game, the rookie wasn't able to handle it. That WON'T be the case with Mariota. Also, no way Murray will be held to just 44 yards on 12 carries, again.

Fournette ran for 100 yards in his NFL debut, as the Jags ran the ball 39 times (155 rushing yards), against just 21 pass attempts. That allowed QB Blake Bortles, who was clearly on the 'hot seat' in the preseason (if Henne could play at all, he would have won the starting job!) to play without any real pressure. He was was mistake-free (no TOs) but completed 52.4% for a pathetic 125 yards (had one TD pass). That's what happens when your defense (10 sacks and 203 yards allowed) and running attack, controls the game.

I can't see Fournette having another big game against the Titans rush defense, as Tennessee allowed an average of 88.3 YPG on the ground in 2016, ranking second in the entire NFL (just 4.0 YPC). Let’s see how Bortles plays if Jacksonville has to play from behind? Series history is not on my side, as the home team has won six straight meetings between these two teams and eight of the last 10, overall (last time a road team won a game in this series was back in December of 2013!). However, I remain pretty high on the Titans and I won't forget that the Jags limped into this season 22-74 over their last six seasons. A surprising win in Week 1 of the 2017 season doesn't much change my feelings towards Jacksonville. I'll close by noting that the Jags have won back-to-back games just TWICE since the 2014 season. Give me the better team at this poinstspread.

Good luck...Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Browns (1:00 EST).

Am I suggesting to you that you should “sprinkle a little on the money-line” in this one? Of course not. I do however think that the Browns can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

I think Baltimore comes in a bit complacent here after its big 20-0 road win over AFC North opponent Cincinnati last weekend. 

The Browns though almost shocked the Steelers in the 21-18 setback to Pittsburgh, getting great play from rookie QB DeShone Kizer and above average play from the defense.

Kizer was sacked seven times, but would finish 20 of 30 for 222 yards, one TD and one INT. Kizer though would also run for 17 yards and another major score. 

And as mentioned above, the defense was good, holding the Steelers to just 35 rushing yards (and that’s without top pick DE Myles Garrett in there.) 

Ravens’ QB Joe Flcco was 9 of 17 for 121 yards, one TD and a pick. Flacco though didn’t even attempt a pass in the second half, with the team focusing on the run after jumping out to the early lead. 

Baltimore’s defense looked fantastic as well, but it faces a much more versatile pivot this week. 

I’ll point out that Cleveland is 5-2 ATS in its last seven on the road in this series, while Baltimore is interestingly 0-4 ATS in its last four off a straight-up victory of more than 14 points.

Kizer is a difference maker here. With a game under his belt, I think he’ll keep this one competitive. Grab as many points as you can, play on the Browns.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New Orleans Saints (1:00 EST).

While I’m not going to call for the outright victory, I do think that the hungry and motivated home side will keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The crowd will be going crazy on Opening Night at the Mercedez-Benz Superdome against the defending champs.

The Pats were smashed 42-27 at home by the Chiefs last weekend and I think they look primed for another letdown here as well. 

New England’s vaunted defense would allow 537 yards, while QB Tom Brady was 16 of 36 for 267 yards and no TD’s. New receiver Brandin Cooks dropped four passes. 

New Orleans comes home off a tough 29-19 MNF setback to Minnesota. 

The Saints gave up 470 yards to the Vikes and allowed them to convert on 9 of 14 third down attempts. RB Adrian Peterson had just 18 yards on six carries. QB Drew Brees was 27 of 37 for 291 yards and a TD. 

I’ll point out that New England is just 1-2 ATS in its last three “dome” games, while New Orleans is 12-9 ATS in the same position (also interesting to note that the Saints are 2-0 ATS the last two seasons after playing on Monday Night Football.)

Does this game mean more to New England? Hardly! I like the home side to at the very least, take this one down to the wire. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Bears (1:00 EST).

The Bucs haven’t played this year and don’t really know “what they have yet.” The Bears are 0-1 but came very close to upsetting the visiting Falcons last weekend in the eventual 23-17 setback.

While I’m not calling for the outright upset, I do definitely expect the hungry visiting side to keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

Tampa was scheduled to face Miami in Week 1, but Hurricane Irma postponed the game. Note that Chicago plays with revenge here as well after falling 36-10 in Tampa last November 13th.

Bears’ QB Mike Glennon was 26 of 40 for 213 yards and a touchdown, while rookie Tarik Cohen had 66 rushing yards and eight catches for 47 yards and a TD. The Falcons were the highest scoring team in the league last year, so the 372 yards given up has to also be looked at in a favorable light.

The Bucs turn to Jameis Winston, who had 4,090 yards, 28 touchdowns and 18 INT’s last season. The team acquired DeSean Jackson in the offseason as a big time playmaker, but with the team having to focus on “real life” issues the last couple of weeks, one has to wonder where Tampa Bay’s head is at right now?

I’ll point out as well that Chicago is 12-7 ATS in its last 19 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Tampa Bay is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a favorite in the same points range.

I think we have a battle on our hands here, not a blowout. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on Pittsburgh (12:00 EST).

Am I suggesting that you should “sprinkle a little on the money line” in this one? No I am not. However, I do think that the underdog home side can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. 

Oklahoma State comes in off a 44-7 drubbing of South Alabama on the road last Friday, while Pitt fell 33-14 on the road at Penn State last weekend.

Note that when these teams played last year, it was an absolute battle. One which the Cowboys won, but only by the skin of their teeth (45-38 on Sept. 17th, 2016.) Suffice it to say, I’m expecting another nail-biter here as well.

OKS is ranked 10th in the country in scoring with 51.5 PPG, while coneding only 15.5 PPG, ranked 31st. QB Mason Rudolph is 45 of 62 for 638 yards and six scores. RB Justice Hill has 159 yards and a TD to lead the ground game thus far. 

It’s interesting to note that despite the setback to the Nittany Lions last Saturday, the Panthers actually outgained Penn State 342-312 and won the first down battle 24-14.

The difference maker was three costly turnovers, otherwise Pitt had a legitimate chance at taking that one outright.

So far Pittsburgh is ranked 103rd with 21 PPG on offense, while ranked 77th in allowing 27 PPG. QB Max Browne is 36 of 56 for 278 yards, one TD and two INT’s. Quadree Oilison had 187 yards rushing and two major scores.

I’ll point out though that the Cowboys are just 1-4 ATS in their last five as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Pittsburgh is 8-6 ATS in its last 14 when playing the role of underdog.

With a game at home against TCU up next, it’s not too hard to imagine the visitors in some small way getting caught “looking ahead” to that one. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Memphis (12:00 EST).

While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the home side to at the very least, take this one down to the wire.

UCLA comes in off a 56-23 home win over Hawaii on Saturday. Memphis comes into this one fresh, as it hasn’t played since beating Louisiana Monroe 37-29 back on August 31st. The Tigers were scheduled to play UCF last weekend, but the Hurricane ruined that meeting. 

UCLA has to travel across the country for this one. Last week the Bruins actually lost the yardage battle 515-505 to the Warriors. They also lost the time of possession by a 36:05 to 23:55 margin. 

Despite that though the Bruins are ranked 11th in scoring so far this year with 50.5 PPG. They are however ranked 104th on the defensive side of the ball in conceding 33.5 PPG thus far. QB Josh Rosen has been solid with 820 yards, nine TD’s and no INT’s. The run game has been non-existent though, as Bola Olorunfunmi leads the way with just 63 yards and one TD. 

The Tigers have been game-planning for this one for two weeks. Memphis struggled at times against the Warhawks, but still managed to find a way to get the win. All told the Tigers ran for 319 yards and four touchdowns, with Darrell Henderson leading the way with 169 yards on the ground and two scores.

I think it’s interesting to note that UCLA is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine games played in the month of September, while Memphis is 5-3 ATS in its last eight in September. 

With a conference tilt at Stanford next weekend, it’s not too hard to imainge the Bruins in some small way getting caught “looking ahead” to that one. A great situational play overall, grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on UTEP. 

I think Arizona gets caught “looking past” lowly UTEP this evening to its conference game at home next weekend against Utah.

Arizona comes in off a deflating 19-16 loss to Houston last week, while UTEP fell 31-14 at home to Rice.

Wildcats’ starting QB Brandon Dawkins was 17 of 29 for 178 yards and no TD’s. Khalil Tate was 5 of 8 for 41 yards. JJ Taylor was a stanout with 87 rushing yards. 

Arizona looked decent defensively, holding Houston to 383 yards. The Wildcats were a disaster on the defensive side of the ball last year and in my opinion, the book is still out on the unit to this point.

Miners’ QB Ryan Metz was 18 of 33 for 203 yards, a TD and no INT’s last week. Metz has yet to find his stride this year, but he does come in off a decent campaign in 2016. The running game is weak, but the receiving corps is strong, keep your eyes on Kavika Johnson, who had six catches for 67 yards last week.

The Miners struggled to stop the run last Saturday, allowing 300 rushing yards, but they’d also post two sacks and allow just 131 passing yards. 

UTEP’s defense catches a break here in facing the pass heavy offense of Arizona. Also note that the Miners are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 off a loss against a conference rival and 5-2 ATS after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Arizona is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine non-conference games and only 3-8 ATS in its last 11 on the road.

While I’m not calling for an outright victory, I do definitely feel this is a few too many points to be giving up to the hungry Miners. Play on UTEP.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on South Florida (7:00 EST).

Analysis posted at least six hours before game time.