All Sports Archive |
Date |
Match Up |
Rating |
Score |
Result |
Profit |
Lead Time |
Analysis |
08-24-20 |
Lakers v. Blazers +7.5 |
Top |
135-115 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 55 m |
Show
|
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Por Blazers at 9:00 ET. The Blazers went 6-2 in the Orlando 'bubble' and then secured the No. 8 seed in the West by beating the Grizzlies 126-122 in the Play-In game. Portland has been led by Bubble MVP Damian Lillard. Talk was, the Lakers could be had, after some lackluster play in their eight games in Orlando, pre-playoffs. The Lakers clinched the West's No. 1 seed back on Aug 3 and then went just 1-4 (0-5 ATS) the rest of the way, needing a Kyle Kuzma shot at the buzzer to capture their lone win. Lillard had 34 points in Game 1 vs the Lakers, leading a balanced attack that saw McCollum score 21 points while center Jusuf Nurkic (17.9 & 11.8 in Orlando) added 16 & 15. Nurkic's backup, Hassan Whiteside, chipped in 7 & 8, with his plus/minus of plus-13 ranking 2nd to only Lillard's plus-19 for the game. Defensively, Portland held the Lakers to 35.1 percent shooting from the floor, including 15.6 percent from three-point range (5 of 32!). A.D. had 28 & 11 and LBJ added his 24th career playoff triple-double (23-17-16) but LA's dynamic duo combined to shoot 1 of 10 on threes. LA's starters shot a combined 3 of 23 on threes. Kuzma, LA's only other consistent scorer during the regular season, added 14. LA's center combo of McGee and Howard (10 points / 13 rebounds) was outplayed by Nuric alone, not even adding in Whiteside's contributions. All of a sudden, the Lakers DID look very vulnerable, while Lillard and the Blazers were becoming 'the story' of Orlando. However, things can turn on a dime in the world of sports. I made a HUGE play on the Lakers in Game 2 and they responded with an 111-88 win. LBJ had a modest line of 10-6-7 but A.D. had 31 & 11 plus the Lakers shot 47.8% as a team. Nurkic contributed just 9 & 8, while Lillard and McCollum combined for only 31 points and shot 2 of 12 on threes. The big story entering Game 3 was Lillard's health, as he had dislocated the index finger on his left hand in the third quarter. Lillard had 34 points in Game 3, while McCollum added 28 but Nurkic was again a non-factor (10 & 7). Meanwhile, LBJ bounced back with a line of 38-12-8 and A.D. wasn't far behind (29-11-8). Overall, LA shot 50.0% as a team in the 116-108 win. So here we are in Game 4, where the Blazers can square it at two-all, or LA can open up a commanding 3-1 lead. I'm not sure that Portland can even the series but taking the points looks very 'juicy.' Lillard can still "make the plays" with his injured left hand but the Blazers will NEED Nurkic to play MUCH better plus the bench CAN'T contribute just EIGHT points again, like it did in Game 3. When LBJ and A.D. play like they did in Game 3, the Lakers "two-man" team looks good enough to win a championship but I still see the Lakers as having way too many 'holes.' After all, even with 'monster' games from their two superstars AND a 28-18 edge in made FTs, the Lakers only won Game 3 by EIGHT points. I expect this contest to come "right down to the wire," taking more than a 'TD' seems HUGE! Good luck...Larry
|
08-24-20 |
Pacers +6.5 v. Heat |
Top |
87-99 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 28 m |
Show
|
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Ind Pacers at 6:30 ET. Miami recorded its THIRD straight win over Indiana with a 114-92 rout on Aug 10 in Orlando but the Pacers finally bested the Heat with a 109-92 on Aug 15. That broke a tie for fourth place in the Eastern Conference. However, all games are being played in Orlando, there IS no home court edge to go along with that No. 4 seed. The Heat controlled most of the play in each of the first two games of this series, winning 113-101 and 109-100. Miami then did so again in Saturday's 124-115 Game 3 on Saturday, a contest that was heavily impacted by free-throw shooting. The Heat went to the line 52 times and made 43, whereas the Pacers attempted just 28 foul shots and made 21. Miami has successfully held T.J. Warren to 19.7 PPG, after he averaged 31.0 PPG in the eight games prior to the start of the playoffs. The Pacers remain without their best player, Sabonis (out for the year), who averaged 18.5-12.4-5.0 before getting hurt. However, Malcom Brogdon has shined, averaging a team-best 24.3 PPG in the series, while also leads all clubs in assists with 33 through three games. Oladipo has also looked "more like himself" the last two games, scoring 22 and 20 points, respectively. Miami's basically gone to a seven-man rotation and the Heat have ridden balanced scoring to take a 3-0 lead. FIVE players are all averaging 15-plus points. The group includes starters Butler (24.3-6.0-4.7), Dragic (22.7-5.7 APG), Adebayo (15.3-8.7-5.0) and Duncan Robinson (15.0), plus Kentucky rookie Herro (16.7), who comes off the bench. NO way the Pacers come back to win this series but four-game sweeps are rare when featuring comparable opponents. The third-seeded Celtics completed a sweep over the sixth-seeded 76ers on Sunday but failed to cover. This is a 4 vs 5 matchup (remember, Indiana is the 4-seed) and I see the Pacers bringing their "A-game" to this win or go home contest. Upset alert? I wouldn't call an Indiana win here an upset. Take the points. Good luck...Larry
|
08-23-20 |
Nuggets +3.5 v. Jazz |
Top |
127-129 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 32 m |
Show
|
My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on the Den Nuggets at 9:00 ET. Utah missed a great opportunity to 'steal' Game 1 against the Nuggets (lost in OT), when even Donovan Mitchell's 57 points weren't enough. However, everything has clicked for the Utah Jazz on offense and defense these last two games. The Jazz have overwhelmed the Nuggets on both ends of the court in back-to-back games, averaging 18 made three-pointers per game, while shooting 45 percent or better from behind the arc in both Game 2 and Game 3 wins. The Nuggets are a mess on defense (have allowed 124.3 PPG in the series) plus have struggled to find a consistent rhythm on offense the last two contests. After scoring 135 points in Game 1's OT victory, Denver has been held to 96.0 PPG in the two losses (Nuggets averaged 111.3 PPG during the regular season). Denver continues to miss two starters, SF Barton (15.1-6.3-3.7) and SG Harris (10.4), who happens to be the team's best perimeter defender. Are those losses too much to overcome? I am NOT ready to concede that. Jokic was his usual self in the first two games (28.5-10.4-4.5) but he had just 15 points in Game 3. Jokic had a breakout postseason last year and I expect a HUGE game from him here. PG Murray and the ever-improving Michael Porter Jr. should also be MUCH better in Game 4. Mitchell had those 57 points in the Game 1 loss but in Utah's two wins, scored 30 and 20 points. Center Rudy Gobert (20.0 & 9.3) has at least played Jokic to a draw so far and PG Mike Conley had a HUGE game on Friday. Conley led Utah with 27 points in its Game 3 romp (returned from a two-game absence), shooting a career-best 7-of-8 from three-point range. However, Conley has been erratic all season, shooting only 40.9% during the regular season, including 37.5% on threes. It's my bet that Utah will NOT replicate its performance from the last two games, when the team shot 51,7% (20-of-44 on threes) and 51.2% (18-of-37 on threes), respectively. Denver gained valuable playoff experience by playing in two, seven-game series in the 2019 postseason (beat the Spurs / lost to the Blazers) and I expect them to lean on that here. Expect Jokic and Murray to be "at their best" as the Nuggets tie this series at two-all. Take ANY points available. Good luck...Larry
|
08-23-20 |
Celtics v. 76ers +8 |
Top |
110-106 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 7 m |
Show
|
My 9* Division Game of the Month (Atlantic) is on the Phi 76ers at 1:00 ET. The third-seeded Boston Celtics hope to complete a playoff-series sweep of the Philadelphia 76ers (No. 6 seed) Game 4 of their best-of-seven series on Sunday afternoon. he Boston scored Game 3's final 10 points on Friday, walking away with a 102-94 win. Here's how the game turned down the stretch. Embiid gave the 76ers their last lead of Game 3 at 94-92 on two free throws with 2:14 remaining but with the 76ers having a chance to add to their lead, he attempted a cross-court pass out of a double-team. The ball was intercepted by Marcus Smart and turned into a three-point play by Jaylen Brown for a 95-94 advantage for the Celtic. Philly had a chance to retake the lead on their next possession but Embiid's off-balance jumper was blocked by Jayson Tatum, who was then fouled in the open court, resulting in a clear-path infraction and two free throws. He made one and when Kemba Walker buried a 20-footer with 1:05 left on the Celtics' ensuing possession, Boston was up four and headed to a commanding series lead. And so it goes. Boston's Hayward was lost for the series in Game 1 but Boston has produced a trio of 20-point scorers in this series, Tatum (26.7 & 8.0), Brown (23.3 & 6.0) and Walker (21.7-4.3-3.7). Smart has replaced Hayward in the starting lineup the last two games and has averaged 12.0-6.0-2.5. Philly began the series with Simmons and Embiid has been the 'big dog,' averaging 30.0 & 13.0. Regular starters Richardson (17.7 & 4.0) and Harris (14.3 & 11.0) have played well enough, as has Milton (14.7), who has replaced Simmons. Phily was counting on Horford to step up his game come playoff time but that hasn';t been the case. He's averaging 30.7 MPG (has started two of the three) but is averaging just 5.3 & 6.3 (averaged 11.9 & 6.8 in the regular season. Many feel as if the 76ers are 'toast' and that head coach Brett Brown "is as good as gone." However, the 76ers have had real chances to win in BOTH Games 1 and 2. Philly had a chance to win Game 1, leading 79-75 into the 4th quarter and trailed by just THREE with under a minute to go in the game. I've also detailed the team's late-game collapse in Game 3, above..Embiid was dominant in the first half during Game 3, racking up 22 points and 10 rebounds while going 6-for-11 from the floor. However, he would shoot just 1-for-9 from the floo in the second half, finishing with 30 points and 13 rebounds. Here's the rub. Embiid's been the MVP of the series in the first halves, averaging 19.0 points on 59.4-percent shooting while adding 8.7 rebounds. However, he's been held to 29.2-percent shooting in the second halves, scoring 11.0 and grabbing a modest 4.3 rebounds.Boston/Philly is the league's oldest rivalry (the franchises are meeting for the 21st time in the postseason) and the simple fact is that the Celtics last swept the 76ers in a playoff series was back in the 1957Eastern Finals, when the franchise played as played as the Syracuse Nationals. I 'm NOT predicting that the 76ers can come back and win the series but I will NOT count them out of salvaging a pride-saving win in Game 4. I want ALL those points! Good luck...Larry
|
08-22-20 |
Rockets v. Thunder +3.5 |
Top |
107-119 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 7 m |
Show
|
My 10* Weekend Wipeout is on the OKC Thunder at 6:00 ET. The OKC Thunder had to like their chances against the Houston Rockets heading into this first round series, as former Thunder star Russell Westbrook (27.2-7.9-7.0) was expected to be sidelined for the entire series with a quad injury. So far, NOT so good for OKC, as Houston has won handily in each of the first two games, 123-108 and 111-98. Naturally, Harden (29.0-8.0-6.0) has led the way but FIVE other Houston players have averaged double digits in the first two contests. The most surprising of those five is 12-year vet Jeff Green, who the Rockets acquired in late February from Utah. Green's averaging 18.5 PPG and only Harden is averaging more rebounds than Green's 6.5 per. The Rockets have never been known for their defense but the Rockets have held the Thunder to 44.2 percent shooting by rotating with determination. Chris Paul NEEDS to step up for OKC. He just missed a triple-double in Game 1 (20-10-9) in Game 1 but he recorded an 'ugly' minus-36 rating in Thursday's defeat (14-6-2), the WORST of anyone on the court! What can the Thunder do to turn things around? How about utilize 6-11 center Steven Adams more. He's averaged 12.5 & 11.2 and his size leaves the small-ball Rockets with few options to stop him. The 6-10 Danilo Gallinari has led the way for OKC averaging 23.0 PPG and Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 20.0 & 5.0. It's great to have reserve guard Dennis Schroder back (he missed all of OKC's first eight games in Orlando), as while he's averaged just 9.5 PPG and 4.5 APG in this series, he averaged 18.9 & 4.0 in the regular season. Here's a couple of things to note about OKC. The Thunder were the NBA's best pointspread team during the regular season, going 44-28 (compared to Houston's 33-39 mark). What's more, the Thunder have some positive playoff history on their side in situations like this. OKC has won Game 3 in each of the FIVE previous instances in which it fell into an 0-2 series hole. Can you say SIX in a row? Good luck...Larry
|
08-22-20 |
Pacers +5.5 v. Heat |
Top |
115-124 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 28 m |
Show
|
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Ind Pacers at 3:30 ET. Miami recorded its THIRD straight win over Indiana with a 114-92 rout on Aug 10 in Orlando but the Pacers finally bested the Heat with a 109-92 on Aug 15. That broke a tie for fourth place in the Eastern Conference. However, with all games being played in Orlando, there IS no home court edge to go along with that No. 4 seed. The Heat have controlled the play in each of the first two games of this series, winning 113-101 and 109-100. The teams will trade benches and wear different colors for Game 3 but the Pacers will need more than that to get back in this series. The Heat have shut down T.J. Warren in the first two games, after he had averaged 31.0 points PPG on 57.8 percent shooting, including 52.4 percent with three-pointer, However, Warren's been held to 18.0 PPG (48.5 percent overall / 40.0 percent on threes), as Miami's gone up 2-0 in this series. It's not just Warren, as the Pacers have been held to just 100.5 PPG, the second-lowest total through two games of all 16 teams! Miami's gone with basically a seven-man rotation, led by the do-everything Butler (23.0-5.0-5.0) and veteran PG Dragic (22.0-4.5-5.5). SG Robinson (15.0), rookie guard Herro (15.0-4.0-3.5) and PF Adebayo (12.0-7.5-5.0) join Butler and Dragic in double digits (note: Herro is coming off the bench). The Pacers are without arguably their best player, Sabonis (out for the year), who had averaged 18.5-12.4-5.0. However, guards Brogdon (19.5 & 9.5 APG in the two games) and Oladipo (13.0 PPG but just 31.3% shooting) are MORE than capable. The 6-11 Myles Turner (13.0 & 8.5) has held his own up front, even without Sabonis. Here's the rub. Brogdon and Oladipo combined for 39 points in Game 2 (that's the good news) but shot a combined 9 of 29 from the floor (obviously, the bad news). Do I think Miami is the better team, yes! However, NOT by much and I'm taking the points with the team that's down 0-2. This series in NO way resembles the Toronto/Brooklyn mismatch or the Boston/Philly series, where the 76ers look as if they've "packed it in" for the season. No surprise at all to see Indiana win. Good luck...Larry
|
08-21-20 |
Clippers -4.5 v. Mavs |
Top |
130-122 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 1 m |
Show
|
My NBA 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the LA Clippers at 9:00 ET. Luka Doncic scored 42 points while adding seven rebounds and nine assists in his first-ever playoff game this past Monday. However, it wasn't enough to keep the Mavs from losing 118-110 to the Clippers for the fourth straight time in the 2019-20 season. However, the Mavericks finally found success against the Clippers on Wednesday, despite Doncic being limited to 28 minutes due to foul trouble. That said, Doncic still managed 28-8-7. Fellow starters Porzingis (23 & 7) and Hardaway (17) both played well but the key was three Dallas players off the bench. Trey Burke (16), Seth Curry (15) and Boban Marjanovic (13) combined for 44 points on 19-of-28 shooting (68%). As for the Clippers, Kawhi scored 35 points and added 10 rebounds but fellow superstar Paul George had just 14 points on 4 of 17 shooting (2 of 10 on threes). LA was just horrific from beyond-the-arc, making just 10-34 (29.4%). Clippers head coach Doc Rivers said the following of the Mavericks performance in Game 2. "They had such a great rhythm against us. Every single guy on their team had confidence with the basketball. They were the more physical team. They played harder. They attacked us. We didn't respond well." Looking ahead to Game 3, Rivers expects his club to play tougher defense and move the ball better in Game 3. He was disappointed that his starting-five combined for seven assists on Wednesday. "That's not how we've played all year," Rivers said. "If we play like that, we can't win." OK, here's the rub. Why should we NOT expect this Kawhi and George led team to respond and bounce back. No way the Dallas trio of Burke, Curry and Marjanovic combine for 44 points again plus note that while Porzingis had 23 & 7 in Game 2, he's playing through right knee soreness. The Clippers are viewed by many as a possible NBA Finals participant (that group includes me) and I expect a championship-like performance from Kawhi and George. Lay the points as the Clippers win "with room to spare." Good luck...Larry
|
08-21-20 |
Nuggets -1.5 v. Jazz |
|
87-124 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 2 m |
Show
|
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Den Nuggets at 4:00 ET. Utah missed a great opportunity to 'steal' Game 1 against the Nuggets (lost in OT) but then left no doubt about the outcome in Game 2, in a 124-105 wire-to-wire over the Nuggets. Mitchell's 57 points in Game 1 were not enough for Utah to win but his 30 points in Game 2 were more than enough to lead the way, as Utah shot 51.7% as a team, including connecting on 20 of 44 three-pointers! Denver Nikola Jokic center was his usual self (28 & 11) and Michael Porter continued his excellent play in Orlando with 28 points (made 6 of 9 three-pointers), but PG Jamal Murray went from scoring 36 points in Game 1, to 14 in Game 2. Denver continues to miss two starters, SF Barton (15.1-6.3-3.7) and SG Harris (10.4), who happens to be the team's best perimeter defender. The Jazz are expected to get starting point PG Mike Conley back in the lineup after he missed two games for the birth of his son but I'm not sure that's all good news. Conley (14.4 & 4.4 APG) has generally been a disappointment in his first season with Utah. The Jazz did almost everything right in Game 2. Utah shot 19 of 33 from three-point range and 36 of 62 from the floor overall during the first three quarters, entering the final period with a commanding 104-77 lead. The Jazz finished with 32 assists on 45 total baskets and made only SIX turnovers. However, that kind of effort/performance will be hard to duplicate in Game 3. Jokic NEVER seems to play a poor game plus I expect Murray to bounce back. Then there is the continued emergence of Michael Porter Jr. He scored in double digits in all seven of the games he played in Orlando prior to the playoffs, averaging 22.0 PPG. He had just a modest 13 points and eight rebounds in Game 1 but then had that 28-point effort in Game 2, showcasing the mismatches he creates for an opponents' defense. Denver gained valuable playoff experience by playing in two, seven-game series in the 2019 postseason (beat the Spurs / lost to the Blazers). Meanwhile, Utah has been in the playoffs in 11 of the last 19 seasons but has advanced past the second round just ONCE, with SIX first round exits. Not ready to concede this series to Denver but I will be playing them on Friday, in a near-pick'em setting. Good luck...Larry
|
08-20-20 |
Blazers v. Lakers -6.5 |
Top |
88-111 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 14 m |
Show
|
My 10* 1st Round Game of the Year (West Conf) is on the LA Lakers at 9:00 ET. The Blazers went 6-2 in the Orlando 'bubble' and then secured the No. 8 seed in the West by beating the Grizzlies 126122 in the Play-In game. Portland has been led by Bubble MVP Damian Lillard, who has averaged in the 10 games the Blazers have played in Orlando. He had 34 points in Game 1 vs the Lakers, leading a balanced attack that saw McCollum scoring 21 points while center Jusuf Nurkic (17.9 & 11.8 in Orlando) added 16 & 15. Nurkic's backup, Hassan Whiteside, chipped in 7 & 8, with his plus/minus of plus-13 ranking 2nd to only Lillard's plus-19 for the game. Defensively, Portland held the Lakers to 35.1 percent shooting from the floor, including and 15.6 percent from three-point range (5 of 32!). A.D. had 28 & 11 and LBJ added his 24th career playoff triple-double (23-17-16) but LA's dynamic duo combined to shoot 1 of 10 on threes. LA's starters shot a combined 3 of 23 on threes. Kuzma, LA's only other consistent scorer during the regular season, added 14. LA's center combo of McGee and Howard (10 points / 13 rebounds) was outplayed by Nuric alone, not even adding in Whiteside's contributions. The Lakers' time in the NBA bubble has been nowhere near as intense as the Blazers'. The Lakers clinched the West's No. 1 seed back on Aug 3 and since that time, the Lakers are just 1-4 (0-5 ATS) and needed a Kyle Kuzma shot at the buzzer to capture their lone win. Portland was a 'sexy' pick to upset the Lakers and after Game 1, the Blazers have LA's full attention. Portland has won SEVEN of its last eight games but during the Blazers' stay in Orlando, they never had to face the same team twice, much less face the same team in consecutive games. That changes here in Game 2. "It's one game," Lakers head coach Frank Vogel said. "I was pleased with our competitive spirit. We didn't make shots. ... I think we can shoot the ball better than we saw tonight." The Lakers CAN'T shoot any worse than in Game 1, right? I've never been completely 'sold' on this LA team but I'm "all over" them here in this bounce-back situation. Good luck...Larry
|
08-20-20 |
Magic v. Bucks -12.5 |
|
96-111 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 49 m |
Show
|
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Mil Bucks at 6:00 ET. Orlando served up some 'Magic' on Tuesday, as the team shocked the Milwaukee Bucks 122-110 as 14-point underdogs. Center Nikola Vucevic scored a career playoff-high with 35 points plus added 14 rebounds. Guards Augustin and Ross combined for 29 points off the bench, as the Magic shot 49.4% as a team. Likely league MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo had 31 points, 17 rebounds and seven assists but also had five turnovers (note: the Magic turned Milwaukee's 16 turnovers into 25 points) and was held without a FG in the game's final 11 minutes. Milwaukee shot poorly overall (43.3%), including 14-of-42 on threes (14-of-42). The Bucks found themselves in the shadow of the opponent's home base even though they finished the regular season 23 games ahead of the eighth-place Magic but that's hardly an excuse. Milwaukee ranked third in the NBA during the regular season in field goal percentage at 47.6 and MUST shoot better in this one. Khris Middleton (20.9-6.2-4.3 in the regular season), usually Antetokounmpo's able sidekick, was held to 14 points on 4-for-12 shooting. Then there was center Brook Lopez, who after averaging 20.4 PPG in the bubble (on 48% shooting), made just TWO of nine shots (five points)! Here's the rub. Already mentioned above is the fact that while Milwaukee went 56-17 on the season, Orlando was just 33-40. There is a HUGE gap in talent between these two teams, hence the double-digit pointspread. Milwaukee's been the NBA's best team in each of the last two seasons (went 60-22 last year) and losing streaks have been RARE! How rare? Beginning at the start of the 2018-19 season, the Bucks had gone a remarkable 29-1 SU and 23-7 ATS after a loss, BEFORE losing three straight right before the shutdown. Milwaukee seemed disinterested in the bubble, going 3-5. However, its Game 1 loss surely got the Bucks' attention. The Magic are in the WRONG place at the WRONG time. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry
|
08-19-20 |
76ers +5 v. Celtics |
Top |
101-128 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 56 m |
Show
|
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Phi 76ers at 6:30 ET. The third-seeded Celtics prevailed 109-101 in the series opener against the sixth-seeded 76ers, led by Jayson Tatum (32 & 13) and Jaylen Brown (29). However, it was no 'walk in the park.' In fact, it was much to the contrary. Philly's Joel Embiid made a 22-footer on the first possession of the fourth quarter, as the 76ers took an 81-75 lead. However, Embiid (26 & 16) did not make a field goal over the final 11:36 of the contest, as Boston outscored Philadelphia 34-20 the rest of the way. The Celtics rotated fresh bodies on Embiid and will attempt to employ the same strategy here in Game 2. However, some bad news came Boston's way out of Game 1. Gordon Hayward (17.5-6.7-4.1 during the regular season) suffered a Grade III right-ankle sprain in the fourth quarter and is out for the rest of the series and could miss the next round as well if the Celtics get that far. Marcus Smart (12.9-3.8-4.9 in the red season will likely replace him in the starting lineup but that further weakens the Boston bench. Smart scored just two points (0-5 FGs) off the bench in Game 1 and while Stevens used SIX bench players during the game, the group totaled a meager EIGHT points. In contrast, Philly's Alec Burks had 18 points off the bench, all by himself. Horford and Harris combined for 15 rebounds and 14 assists in Game 1 but shot a combined 9 of 22 from the floor (including 0-4 on threes), scoring a total of 21 points. That duo will HAVE to contribute more points but overall. The 76ers enjoyed a 50-43 advantage on the boards but the "deciding factor" in Game 1 was the fact the Celtics committed just SEVEN turnovers, compared to the 76ers' 18. Another nail-biter is expected and I'm taking the points. A Philly win would NOT be a surprise. Good luck...Larry
|
08-19-20 |
Jazz +4.5 v. Nuggets |
|
124-105 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 30 m |
Show
|
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Ut Jazz at 4:00 ET. The sixth-seeded Utah Jazz received 57 points from Donovan Mitchell, who set a Utah record for points in a playoff game, but lost to the third-seeded Denver Nuggets in game 1 of this first round series. Utah entered the 4th quarter with an 83-78 lead and still led by four (102-98) with about 4 1/2 minutes to go. However, the teams would head to OT tied at 115-all. Denver scored the first EIGHTpoints of the extra period and took Game1 by a score of 135-125. Denver PG Jamal Murray dominated down the stretch. He scored 20 points on 8-of-10 shooting in the fourth quarter & OT, finishing with 36 points and nine assists for the game. Center Nikola Jokic finished with 29 points and 10 rebounds, attacking inside and outside, while getting the best of Rudy Gobert (17 & 7) in their individual matchup. Both teams are missing key pieces as they get set to square off in Game 2. Bojan Bogdanovich (20.2) was Utah's second-highest scorer this season but had surgery to repair a ruptured ligament in his right wrist back in May. PG Conely has had an erratic season (14.4 & 4.4 APG) but the Jazz miss him. He left the bubble for the birth of his son and is back but not yet cleared to play. As for the Nuggets, SF Barton (15.1-5.0-6.3) and SG Harris (10.4), the team's best perimeter defender, each have yet to play in Orlando (won't in Game 2, either). Mitchell had 22 fourth-quarter points but also committed a costly eight-second backcourt violation in the final two minutes of regulation that ultimately ended up becoming the turning point in the game. "I kind of put a little bit on myself for that eight-second violation and then they come down and hit a three that really changed the entire game," Mitchell said. "But at the end of the day, we're not overreacting. It's one game. We got to go back out there and be ready for Game 2." I'm taking the points! Good luck...Larry
|
08-18-20 |
Blazers v. Lakers -5.5 |
Top |
100-93 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 60 m |
Show
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My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Lakers at 9:00 ET. The Lakers enter their first round series with the Blazers as the top seed in the Western Conference but I'm sure most have heard "the chatter." The eighth-seeded Blazers, one of the hottest teams in the bubble and led by Damain Lillard (the bubble's most outstanding player), are a dangerous squad and a tough matchup for LA. The Lakers pretty much had the No. 1 seed locked up when they arrived in Orlando and the Lakers played like a team with nothing to prove. LA went 3-5 SU and a money-burning 1-7 ATS in their eight games! In contrast, the Blazers had work to do when they arrived in Orlando, needing to catch Memphis for the No. 8 seed, or stay within four games of the eight-seed, which would force a play-in. Portland went 6-2 and was able to earn the No. 8 seed, when Memphis went 2-6. That forced a play-in situation in which the Blazers and Grizzlies met last Saturday. A Portland win would give them the final playoff spot, while a Memphis win would force a winner-take-all game on Sunday. Lllard continued his outstanding play last Saturday, scoring 31 points and adding 10 assists, as the Blazers made a Sunday game moot, with a 126-122 win. Lillard had averaged 51.3 points in his three previous games before Saturday, including a career-high tying 61 points in a win over the Dallas Mavericks on Aug 11. Backcourt partner McCollum, who has clearly been affected by a nondisplaced fracture in his back. added 29 points. Center Nurkic had missed all games in the regular season but the COVID-19 stoppage of play allowed him to return in Orlando. He averaged 17.6-1.3-4.0 as Portland went 6-2 plus added 22 points and 21 rebounds in Saturday's seed-clinching game with Memphis. The Lakers are led by the dynamic duo of A.D. (26.1 & 9.3) and LBJ (25.3-7.8-10.2) but BOTH played erratically in LA's 3-5 effort. LA's only other double-digit scorer this season has been reserve forward Kyle Kuzma (12.8 & 4.9) but Dion Waiters, who was signed prior to the bubble, has averaged 11.9 PPG in 23.5 MPG here in Orlando. The Lakers have started McGee (6.6 & 5.7) with Howard (7.5 & 7.3) coming off the bench at the center position and the combo has been 'quietly' effective. I have my doubts about LA's ability to "win it all" but after basically 'sleep-walking' through the team's first eight games, I expect A.D. and especially LBJ, to "put Portland in its place" in Game 1 of this series. "Lay it!" Good luck...Larry
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08-18-20 |
Heat -4.5 v. Pacers |
|
113-101 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 2 m |
Show
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My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Mia Heat at 4:00 ET. The No. 5 Miami Heat and No. 4 Indiana Pacers open a best-of-seven playoff series late Tuesday afternoon, after the teams split a pair of games in the NBA bubble. Miami recorded its THIRD straight win over Indiana with a 114-92 rout last Monday, before the Pacers finally bested the Heat with a 109-92 win on Friday that broke a tie for fourth place in the Eastern Conference. Much has been made of the Jimmy Butler and TJ Warren feud but one can't seriously think it will have an effect on the outcome of this game, or the series! Warren earned a spot on the All-Bubble first team after averaging 31.0 PPG in the Pacers' eight games since the restart but he had nowhere near that level of success in three games against the Heat this season, shooting just 11-for-31 overall (35.5 percent), including 3-for-11 on three-pointers (27.3 percent), while averaging just 10.3 PPG. What's more, Warren has a foot injury and has been listed as questionable for this contest. If that were NOT enough, Domantas Sabonis (18.5 & 12.4) has not played in Orlando (he is out indefinitely with plantar fasciitis) plus Oladipo (14.5) and Lamb (12.5 & 4.3) are less than 100% (not sure on their status). The Heat enter this series in much better health, led by swingman Jimmy Butler (19.9-6.7-6.0) and big man Adebayo, who has come into his own this season (15.9-10.2-5.1). veteran PG Dragic (16/2 & 5.1 APG) is joined on the perimeter by undrafted rookie Nunn (15.3), who is set to return for the first time in Orlando (Spoelstra says he'll come off the bench). Rookie guard Herro, 13th overall pick out of Kentucky, has had a solid first season, averaging 13.5 & 4.1 APG). SF Duncan Robinson played just 15 games last season (3.3 PPG in about 11 minutes) but has been a regular this season, averaging 13.5 PPG. SF Jae Crowder, acquired in Feb from Memphis, has given Miami 11.9 & 5.4 in 20 games (28 MPG). Erik Spoelstra is a playoff-tested head coach and quite frankly, he brings the better team into this series. Take Miami to win Game 1, "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry
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08-17-20 |
76ers v. Celtics -5.5 |
Top |
101-109 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 48 m |
Show
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My 10* Playoff Opener is on the Bos Celtics at 6:30 ET. The Celtics and 76ers 'tipped off' their respective seasons back on Oct 23, with the 76ers taking care of the Celtics 107-93. It was a nice confidence-builder for Philly, as the Celtics had gone 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS in their previous nine meetings with Philly. Now, almost NINE months later, the two longtime rivals open against each other in a #3 (Boston) vs #6 (Philadelphia) first round series from the Orlando 'bubble.' Al Horford joined Philly (from Boston) in the off season and the 76ers did win THREE of the four meetings with Boston this season, seemingly turning the tide. However, this series will take on a different complexion in the playoffs, as Philly's All-Star guard Ben Simmons (16.4-7.8-8.0) has been sidelined following knee surgery. Is the loss of Simmons that BIG of a deal? Not all think so. Here's what Boston head coach Brad Stevens noted. "In the games that Simmons hasn't played, they're the No. 1 offense in the league," said Stevens. "The spacing, the shooting around [Joel] Embiid posting, the ability to play big with both Embiid and Al (Horford). ... A bunch of shooters around them makes them very tough." The 76ers went 4-4 during the seeding portion of the NBA season restart, ending on a 2-3 stretch in the games without Simmons. Still, as Stevens alluded to, the team surpassed 100 points in each of those contests, with Horford slotting into the starting lineup in a bigger look. Embiid's a stud (23,0 & 11.6), Harris (19.6 & 6.9) is an excellent SF and Horford (11.9-6.8-4.0) has always been more valuable than his stats indicate. The Celtics have two young stars (superstars?) in Jayson Tatum (23.4 & 7.0) and Jaylen Brown (20.3 & 6.4). Both have had "career years" in the 2019-20 season, while the FA signing of PG Kemba Walker (20.4 & 4.8 APG) has been HUGE. No one in Boston misses Kyrie. Gordon Hayward (17.5-6.7-4.1) is playing like he did three years ago and Marcus Smart (12,9-3.8-4.9) has become a team leader, as well as the team's best defender. Boston's center duo of Theis (9.2 & 6.6) and Kanter (8.1 & 7.4) don't get much respect, but they make up a solid combo. Don't include me as one who buys into the theory of Philly being better off with Simmons. As for Boston, the Celtics were pretty much 'locked into' the No. 3 seed when the restart began but played well in 'the bubble.' They lost their first game to the Bucks 1189-122 (note: game was tied with 1:30 left) but then went 5-1 over their next six, including FOUR straight, before resting their starters in a 96-90 loss to the Washington Wizards on Thursday. I'm laying the points! Good luck...Larry
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08-15-20 |
Grizzlies +6 v. Blazers |
Top |
122-126 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 3 m |
Show
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My 10* Game of the Week is on the Mem Grizzlies at 2:30 ET on Saturday. The NBA season resumed back on July 30th in an Orlando 'bubble.' Each team would play eight games and those W/L records would be added to each teams' record as of the shutdown. A typical 16-team playoff season would follow, as all teams would be seeded 1 through 8 based on their overall record, with a lone exception. If the 9th-seed finished within four games of the No. 8 seed in either conference, those two teams would meet in a "play-in" situation. The No. 9 would need to beat the No. 8 seed in back-to-back games to earn the final playoff spot, while the No. 8 seed would need to win only once. Win Game 1 and that would end things, or win Game 2, if needed. The 'battle' for the West's final seed saw the Grizzlies begin the restart with a record of 32-33, which gave them a 3 1/2 game edge over the 29-37 Blazers. The Kings and Pelicans were each 28-36 (also 3 1/2 games back), while the Spurs checked in at 27-36 (4 games back) and the Suns at 26-39 (6 games back). Most expected the Blazers to be the biggest challenger to Memphis and Portland did go 6-2 in Orlando. However, the surprising Suns 'ran the table,' going 8-0. Memphis struggled right from the start in losing its first four games and SIX of its first seven but the team's 119-106 Thursday night win over Milwaukee guaranteed the Grizzlies at least the No. 9 seed. Phoenix routed Dallas 128-102 on Thursday and awaited the result from Portland's game with Brooklyn. Portland could claim the No. 8 seed with a win but the Blazers would miss the postseason with a loss. The Blazers eked out a 134-133 win, leaving the Suns out of luck despite their 8-0 record in Orlando (Memphis claimed the final spot with the same record as Phoenix due to its 3-1 record over the Suns on the season). That sets the stage for Saturday's game and Portland can claim the West's final playoff spot (and a date with the Lakers) with a win. Lose, and the teams meet again on Sunday, in a winner-take-all scenario. The Blazers are led by the dynamic backcourt duo of Lillard and McCollum. Lillard's been brilliant, averaging 37.6 PPG in Orlando, including 51.3 PPG over Portland's last three games. McCollum is averaging 20.1 PPG but his play has clearly been affected by a nondisplaced fracture in his back. The Blazers went 53-29 last season and made it all the way to the West Finals, before getting swept by the Warriors. However, Portland was suffering through a disappointing season filled with injuries and bad breaks, along with sloppy, inconsistent play. However, the COVID-19 forced break allowed the return to health of center Jusuf Nurkic and PF Zach Collins. Nurkic's been excellent (17.6-10.3-4.0) and Collins (6.3 & 7.1), steady. The real surprise in Orlando has been Gary Trent Jr, who owns a career average of 7.6 PPG, but has averaged 16.9 PPG in Orlando. Memphis went just 2-6 in the bubble, often struggling. The loss of Jaren Jackson Jr. (the team's second-leading scorer) really hurt but the team's 3½-game cushion heading into the restart helped keep them in the playoff race. Facing elimination with a loss on Thursday, the Grizzlies played their best game in Orlando. Ja Morant (12-13-10) and Jonas Valanciunas (26-19-12) became the first Grizzlies teammates to record triple-doubles in the same game, while shooting guard Brooks scored a team-high 31 points in the win over the Bucks. Morant has averaged 19.0-5.6-9.9 in the bubble, Brooks 20.1 PPG and Valanciunas 15.3 & 11.5. Conventional wisdom says Portland will advance (needs just ONE win, while Memphis must win TWICE) and Lillard has surely been Orlando's brightest star. However, Memphis beat Portland 111-104 in the teams' only regular season meeting and when these two teams tipped off against each other in the Orlando 'bubble,' Portland eked out a 140-135 win in OT. I'm taking the points and would not even be a little shocked if Memphis forced a game on Sunday! Good luck...Larry
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08-13-20 |
Orioles v. Phillies -1.5 |
Top |
11-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
10 h 19 m |
Show
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My 10* Run-Line Rout is on the Phi Phillies at 4:05 ET. The Philadelphia Phillies will look to avoid a three-game series sweep against the visiting The Baltimore Orioles were one of FOUR teams to lose 100-plus games in 2019 (108) but have opened the 2020 season by winning NINE of their first 16 games. That includes the first two of this three-game series at Philadelphia against the Phillies (10-9 in 10 innings and 5-4). The Phillies are a very disappointing 5-8 to open this 60-game season, leaving them in last-place in the NL East. Philly sure can't afford to get swept at home by the Orioles. Thursday's pitching matchup is Baltimore's Thomas Eshelman (0-0, 3.68 ERA) facing Philly's Jake Arrieta (1-1, 2.45 ERA). Eshelman is a former top Phillies prospect who was traded Eshelman to Baltimore Orioles on June 10, 2019. He's made 12 appearances (five starts) since then for the Orioles, going 1-2 with a 6.02 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and .305 BAA. Arrieta began his career with Baltimore back in 2010 but was traded to the Cubs in 2013. He showed excellent improvement in 2014 (10-5, 2.53 ERA) and then won the NL's Cy Young award for the Cubs in 2015 (22-6 with a 1.77 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and .185 BAA). He went 18-8 (3.10 ERA / 1.08 WHIP / .195 BAA) in 2016, when the Cubs won the World Series. However, he fell off the next two seasons and signed a three-year, $75 million free agent deal with the Phillies. He's underachieved (18-19 with a 4.26 ERA) his first two seasons with Philly but in fairness, he's battled injuries these last two years. He dealt with bone spurs in his pitching elbow last season but appears completely healthy in 2020. Arrieta tossed six scoreless innings with six strikeouts against the Atlanta Braves for his first scoreless start since 2018 last Saturday (a 5-0 Philly win). After back-to-back one-run losses, the Phillies avoid the dreaded three-game home sweep and win "with room to spare." Lay the 1 1/2 runs! Good luck...Larry
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08-13-20 |
Bucks v. Grizzlies +1 |
Top |
106-119 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 22 m |
Show
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My 10* Seeding Decider is on the Mem Grizzlies at 4:05 ET. All the postseason matchups in both conferences are set with the exception of which team will face the West's top-seeded Lakers in the first round, after the completion of Wednesday's games. The 34-39 Portland Trail Blazers currently own the No. 8 seed but the 33-39 Memphis Grizzlies, the 33-39 Phoenix Suns (perfect 7-0 in 'the bubble') and the 32-28 San Antonio Spurs (looking to reach the postseason for the 23rd consecutive season) all still have a chance to compete in the play-in series to determine the eighth spot in the West entering Thursday's pivotal slate of games. The Grizzlies, a woeful 1-6 in the bubble, are the FIRST of the above four teams to take the court on Thursday (4:05 ET), as they face the Milwaukee Bucks. Memphis holds the ninth-seed in the West, a half-game behind Portland and technically tied with Phoenix but the Grizzlies own a tie-breaker advantage over the Suns. As for San Antonio, the Grizzlies are percentage points ahead of the Spurs, .458 to .457. If Memphis wins, the Grizzlies will earn at least the No. 9 seed and if Portland loses, would earn back the No. 8 seed. The Grizzlies can also earn an invitation to the play-in series in the ninth position even with a loss, if both the Suns AND Spurs also lose on Thursday. If nothing else, the Grizzlies do control their own fate. The 56-16 Milwaukee Bucks own the NBA's best record and have had little motivation here in the bubble. The Grizzlies will not see likely MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo in this must-win game, as he will serve a one-game suspension after he head-butted Washington's Moe Wagner following an offensive foul and verbal exchange in Tuesday's 126-113 win. Truth is, Milwaukee would have likely rested him in this meaningless game and head coach Mike Budenholzer just may play his other starters very little, as well. Jaren Jackson Jr, the Grizzlies' 2nd-leading scorer, tore the meniscus in his left knee earlier in the bubble and is out for the season. Still, Ja Morant, Dillon Brooks, Jonas Valanciunis and Grandon Clarke are all double-digit scorers. ONE win and Memphis gets to play on. That's the bet. Good luck...Larry
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08-12-20 |
Clippers v. Nuggets +5.5 |
Top |
124-111 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 58 m |
Show
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My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Den Nuggets at 9:05 ET. The Los Angeles Clippers can clinch the West's No. 2 with a win tonight over the Denver Nuggets (Denver is currently the No. 3 seed). However, Kwahi Leonard has said it matters little if LA is the No. 2 or No. 3 seed heading into the NBA playoffs. "There's really no homecourt advantage, no fans out there, no travel," said Leonard, according to the Los Angeles Times. "I definitely think the healthiest teams usually win it all. Guys that have the full roster, have a good bench. Hopefully we can get everybody back and if we can get a rhythm going with the guys that are here that usually play, then we'll see what happens." It's hard to argue with his logic. The 47-23 Clippers hold a 1 1/2-game lead over the Nuggets with two games remaining, while Denver is 1 1/2 games ahead of the 44-26 Houston Rockets, who own the No. 4 seed. The Clippers are just 3-3 in the Orlando 'bubble,' after losing 129-120 to the Nets on Sunday (LA allowed the rag-tag Nets to shoot 55.3% from the floor). George sat out that game, while Kawhi had 39 points. Under these circumstances, one never knows when Kwahi or George will play. Maybe George will play and Kwahi will sit. We KNOW that PGs Shamet and Beverley remain out and that while PF Montrezl Harrell (18.6 & 7.1 has returned to the bubble, he won't play against the Nuggets because he is being quarantined, Harrell could return for Friday's regular-season finale against the Oklahoma City Thunder, coach Doc Rivers said. The Nuggets last played Monday night, losing 124-121 to the Lakers, when Kyle Kuzma made a three-pointer with 0.4 seconds left in the game. "I couldn't be more proud of our group," Denver coach Michael Malone told the media after the game. "I thought we played extremely hard. That's the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. The fourth time we've played them. Every game has been a battle, it's gone down to the wire. For us to sit our starters that whole fourth quarter and to have the guys on the bench out there giving them all they could handle and lose a heartbreaker is always tough but (I'm) just so proud." EIGHT Denver players scored in double figures, led by reserve guard PJ Dozier with 18 points and forward Michael Porter Jr, who finished with 15 points on 6-of-6 shooting. Porter has "come into his own" here in Orlando, averaging 23.8 & 11.2. SF Barton (15.1 & 6.3) and SG Harris (10.4) remain out but PG Murray has returned the last two games to average 18.5-8.0-5.5. Then there is center Jokic (20.7-6.7-8.5). Denver knows it will almost assuredly have to beat both LA teams to reach The Finals and after that hard-luck loss to the Lakers on Monday, I like the Nuggets' chances here. Especially getting almost a 'TD.' Good luck...Larry
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08-10-20 |
Raptors +6 v. Bucks |
Top |
114-106 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 53 m |
Show
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My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Tor Raptors at 6:30 ET. The Bucks (55-15) have clinched the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference for the second season in a row, despite uneven play in the 'bubble' (Milwaukee is just 2-3 SU and ATS). The Raptors lost Friday for the first time since the season restart (122-100 to the Boston Celtics) but they rebounded Sunday afternoon with a 108-99 victory over the Memphis Grizzlies to clinch the No. 2 seed in the conference at 50-19 (4-1 SU & ATS in the 'bubble.'). Milwaukee has been the East's best regular season for the last two seasons but the Raptors ARE the defending champs and have given every indication that they are ready to make a run at back-to-back titles. How much can this game really mean to Milwaukee? The Bucks have won the two previous meetings between the teams this season, 115-105 at home on Nov 2 and 108-97 at Toronto on Feb 25. There is no denying the Bucks have struggled at times since the restart, as if not for a 'miracle' comeback vs Miami last Thursday, the Bucks would be just 1-4 ATS. Meanwhile, the Raptors sport a terrific seven-man rotation with guards Lowry, VanVleet and Powell plus frontcourt players Siakam, Anunoby, Gasol and Ibaka. In particular, VanVleet (19.4-4.2-6.8) has been outstanding. Giannis Antetokounmpo should win his second straight MVP award (he's spectacular) but he's listed as probable due to a toothache (DON'T downplay that!). Either way, I'm "all over" Toronto with the points in this one! Good luck...Larry
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08-09-20 |
76ers v. Blazers -2.5 |
Top |
121-124 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 54 m |
Show
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My 10* Weekend Wipeout is on the Por Blazers at 6:35 ET. The Philadelphia 76ers are 42-27, which currently leaves them as the East's No. 6 seed. However, they are just a halg0game back of Miami and Indiana, which are tied for the No. 4 seed. The bad news for Philly is that Ben Simmons suffered a dislocated left kneecap during Wednesday's victory over the Washington Wizards. Philadelphia announced that he will undergo a procedure to remove a loose body from the knee. There wasn't an immediate timetable announced but it's likely that the 76ers won't see Simmons on the floor again until the 2020-21 campaign. Portland suffered a costly 122-117 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers on Saturday, even though Kawhi was rested by LA. The loss drops them 1 1/2 games behind the Memphis Grizzlies (currently eighth-place team in the West). Just as much of a concern is that the Blazers are just a half-game ahead of the San Antonio Spurs and Phoenix Suns plus one game in front of the New Orleans Pelicans for the play-in berth (9th-seed). Yes, Portland is playing the second of back-to-back games but ALL the motivation lies with them. This is almost a "must-win." A victory for Portland would be HUGE, as Memphis is playing Toronto (Grizzlies are 7-point underdogs) plus the Spurs and Pelicans are playing each other (one team HAS to lose). Portland has seen the return from injury of two key performers. Center Jusuf Nurkic is finally back on the court and he's averaged 19.6-11.4-4-5.2 in five games. Also, PF Zach Collins is back, averaging 7.0 & 7.4 in about 27 minutes per game. Portland relies heavily on one of the NBA's best backcourts in Lillard and McCollum but don't dismiss the contributions of Carmelo Anthony. He's been a HUGE surprise all season. Then there is second-year pro Gary Trent Jr, who has a career average of 7.5 PPG, but is averaging 20.6 PPG "in the bubble." Damian Lillard scored 22 points but was taking blame for Saturday's loss. He missed two free throws with the Blazers down by one with 18.6 seconds left and was off the mark with a three-pointer that could have tied the score with 9.5 seconds to play. Lillard tied his franchise record with 11 three-pointers and scored 45 points in Portland's 125-115 win over the Denver Nuggets on Thursday night. Expect a HUGE game from him here and lay the 'short' price with Portland. Good luck...Larry
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08-09-20 |
Marlins v. Mets -1.5 |
Top |
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 6 m |
Show
|
My 9* Run-Line Rout is on the NY Mets at 1:10 ET I saw where Karl Ravech tweeted, "The Marlins story of 2020 is so unfathomable yet steering the ship on field and navigating the challenges off it Don Mattingly has been the perfect voice." It's hard to disagree but let's NOT forget that the 2019 Marlins went an NL-worst 57-105. Miami didn't play from July 27 through August 3, after 18 players tested positive for the coronavirus. However, the Marlins missed out on a chance to match the best nine-game start in franchise history on Saturday night, when their six-game winning streak was snapped as the Mets hit three HRs in an 8-4 victory. The victory was just New York's THIRD, in a 10-game stretch (Mets are just 6-9, while the Marlins are 7-2). Pablo Lopez (1-0, 0.00 ERA) is scheduled to become the first Marlins pitcher to make a second start this season, as Miami is the first team in baseball history to start a different pitcher in each of the season's first nine games. The Mets will counter with two-time reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom (1-0, 2.12), who is making his fourth start of the year. Lopez is in his third season with Miami and comes off a 2019 season in which he made 21 starts, going 5-8 with a 5.09 ERA (Marlins were 7-14 in his starts). He did earn the win in his season debut Tuesday, when the Marlins returned to action and he allowed two hits while striking out seven over five innings in a 4-0 victory over the Baltimore Orioles. He is 2-1 with a 6.75 ERA in three career starts against the Mets. DeGrom is trying to become just the third pitcher, after Hall of Famers Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson, to win three straight Cy Young Awards. He has picked up where he left off last season, allowing just 12 baserunners in 17 innings. He owns a 2.12 ERA and an 0.71 WHIP (22-3 KW ratio), while holding opposing batter to a .153 BAA. Holding down an opponent is rarely the problem when deGrom takes the mound, rather it's the Mets' inability to get him runs in support. However, the Mets did give him SEVEN runs last Tuesday against the Braves (his 1st "W" of 2020) and I'm NOT 'buying into' the Marlins being a serious contender. I noted the team's 2019 record above and will add that Miami batted .241 as a team (25th) and averaged 3.8 RPG (29th of 30 teams) over the entire 2019 season. Expect deGrom to shut Miami down and for the Mets to give him enough support to 'cover' laying the 1 1/2 runs. Good luck...Larry
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08-08-20 |
Bucks v. Mavs +5 |
Top |
132-136 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 53 m |
Show
|
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Dal Mavs at 8:35 ET. The Dallas Mavericks have lost THREE of their first four games in the Orlando 'bubble.' The team played three straight highly competitive contests (a 153-149 OT loss to Houston, a 117-115 loss to Phoenix and then a 114-110 OT win against SA), before getting blown out 126-111 by the Clippers on Thursday. The 41-30 Mavs are almost 'locked into' the West's No. 7 and their likely first-round opponent will be the Clippers (not exactly something to look forward to). The Milwaukee Bucks are an NBA-best 55-14, although they've played back-to-back 'curious' games. The Bucks lost 119-116 to the injury-riddled Nets on Tuesday, as 19-point favorites (the contest ranks as the NBA's largest point spread upset in 27 years and according to ESPN, teams favored by 19 or more had gone 49-2 SU over the past 30 years). They then fell behind by as many as 23 points to the Miami Heat on Thursday (Heat were without Butler and Dragic), only to come back to earn the 130-116 win (AND cover!). Milwaukee is just 2-2 since the season resumed. A closer look into that loss to the Nets reveals that Giannis only played the first half as head coach Mike Budenholzer decided to rest some of his starters (no Milwaukee starter played more than 20 minutes against Brooklyn). Not sure I want to guess what Budenholzer's strategy will be these last four games, as the Bucks have wrapped up the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. As for the Mavs, they could sure use a confidence builder. Completing a two-game season sweep of the Bucks may be "just what the doctor ordered." Dallas ended Milwaukee's 18-game winning streak 120-116 back on Dec 16 on the Bucks' home floor. Revenge for Milwaukee? As noted above, do they really have any motivation for that? There hasn't been a better 'one-two punch' in Orlando than Doncic (32.8-11.0-9.8) and Porzingis (30.3 & 10.0) and I'm expecting another OUTRIGHT win. I had OKC plus-6 in that 105-86 of the Lakers on Weds and Boston plus-3 in its 122-100 win over Toronto, last night. Good things always come in threes! Good luck...Larry
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08-07-20 |
Celtics +2.5 v. Raptors |
Top |
122-100 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 12 m |
Show
|
My 10* Eastern Conference Game of the Month is on the Bos Celtics at 9:05 ET. The Toronto Raptors had won four straight when the NBA season was shut down due to COVID-19 and have added THREE straight wins in the Orlando 'bubble.' The Raptors' seven-game winning streak is an NBA-best and Toronto (49-18) takes on the 45-23 Boston Celtics Friday night, knowing a win will clinch the East's No. 2 seed. The Celtics are 2-2 in Orlando but have won two of the three meetings with the Raptors this season. The Celtics last played on Wednesday, routing the under-manned Nets,149-115. Boston shot 56.8 percent from the floor, including making 20 of 39 three-point attempts. SEVEN players scored in double digits, a group which didn't include PG Kemba Walker. Walker sat out to rest his sore left knee but is expected to play against Toronto. With Walker playing, Boston features five double-digit scorers, led by Jayson Tatum (23.3 & 7.0) Toronto has SIX players averaging in double digits, led by Pascal Siakam (23.3 & 7.5). Toronto is currenting receiving excellent production from guard Fred VanVleet, who scored a career-best 36 points in Monday's 107-103 win over the Miami Heat and followed that up with 21 points and 10 assists in Wednesday's victory over Orlando. A concern could be PG Lowry, who was 2-for-9 shooting effort against Orlando and leaving him 4 of 17 from the floor over the past two games (just 22 points), after scoring 33 points (along with grabbing 14 rebounds) in Toronto's 107-92 rout of the Lakers. I'm really starting to 'warm' to the idea that Toronto has a legitimate chance at repeating as NBA champs this year (minus Kawhi) but I don't like them here. I noted that Toronto can clinch the East's No. 2 seed with a win but practically, the Raptors have already clinched the No. 2 seed. The only way for Toronto to NOT earn the No. 2 seed would be to lose each one of its final FIVE games, while the Celtics win each of their remaining FOUR. Not happening! For me, the motivation edge here is with Boston, who could take the series (3-1) from Toronto with a win and give them some extra confidence in a possible matchup with the Raptors in the Eastern semis.. Any points are just a bonus! Good luck...Larry
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08-06-20 |
Blazers -3 v. Nuggets |
Top |
125-115 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 12 m |
Show
|
My 10* Western Conference Game of the Month is on the Por Blazers at 8:05 ET. The Denver Nuggets are 2-1 since the restart after earning a 132-126 win over the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday. The victory gives them a 45-23 record, just a half-game back of the Clippers for the West's No. 2 seed. The Nuggets are right back on the court tonight, taking on the Portland Trail Blazers, who are also 2-1 in the NBA's Orlando 'bubble.' Portland is off an impressive 110-102 win over the Rockets on Tuesday and with Memphis losing all FOUR of its games since the restart, find themselves just ONE game back of the West's No. 8 seed. Denver returned to play missing THREE key starters and I'm not sure when any of them will return. PG Murray (18.8 & 4.8 APG) has a hamstring problem, SF Barton (15.1-6.3-2.7) has a knee issue and SG Harris (10.4) is bothered by his hip. Jokic (20-4-10.1-7.0 on the season) is 'the center of attention' (pardon the pun) but the team's 'hero' has been Michael Porter Jr. The PF had just 11 points in the team's 125-105 opening loss vs the Heat but he's scored 67 points and grabbed 27 rebounds in Denver's last two games (both wins). While Denver has lost key players to injury, Portland has seen the return from injury of two key performers. Center Jusuf Nurkic is finally back on the court and he's averaged 22.0-12.3-4.3 in three games. Also, PF Zach Collins is back, averaging 7.0 & 7.0. Portland relies heavily one one of the NBA's best backcourts, Lillard (28.8-4.4-8.0) and McCollum (22.5-4.2-4.4) but don't dismiss the contributions of Carmelo Anthony. He's been a HUGE surprise all season, averaging 15.3 & 6.3. Then there is second-year pro Gary Trent Jr, who has a career average of 7.0 PPG, but is averaging 18.0 PPG "in the bubble." Both teams have plenty to play for here but Portland is rested and the Blazers are still trying to secure a playoff berth (NOT the case with Denver). The Nuggets are 3-0 against the Blazers this season and have won NINE of the last 10 meetings but the Blazers are way more healthy and again, are playing for their postseason 'lives!' Lay the small spot. Good luck...Larry
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08-05-20 |
Thunder +6.5 v. Lakers |
Top |
105-86 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 36 m |
Show
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My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the OKC Thunder at 6:30 ET. The Lakers clinched the top seed in the Western Conference with Monday's win over Utah and have little to play for these next five games (note: LA Lakers is in the playoffs for the first time since 2013). Meanwhile, the 41-25 OKC Thunder enter this game holding down the West's No. 6 seed, two games better than the Dallas Mavs (No. 7 seed). More importantly, the Thunder know that the fourth-seed is still in realistic reach, as the Rockets and Jazz are both 42-25, a half-game up on OKC. as well. Anthony Davis has averaged 38 points, 10 rebounds and four assists in wins over the Los Angeles Clippers and Jazz but he had just 14 points (on just seven FG attempts) in LA's 107-92 loss to Toronto. LeBron James (24.4-8.0-10.4 on the season) teams with A.D. but only reserve forward Kyle Kuzma (12.5) has averaged more than 10 points on the season. Dion Waiters, a recent signee, has averaged 10.0 PPG in LA's three games of the restart but he's shooting just 40.7%, including 21.4% on threes. OKC has no one in the class of A.D. and LBJ but while backup PG Dennis Schroder is missed (he left the NBA bubble for the birth of his second child Monday morning), the Thunder have been more than competitive with an NBA-best 41-25 ATS mark. Gilgeous-Alexander (19.4 & 6.0), Gallinari (19.2 & 5.4) and Paul (17.8-4.9-6.8) are all capable of "big nights" plus the center duo of Adams (11.0 & 9.4) and Noel (7.6 & 5.0) is at least the equal of LA's duo of McGee and Howard. The points are a bonus in this one, as I'm calling for an outright OKC win, just like what the Raptors did (see above). Good luck...Larry
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08-04-20 |
Celtics -3.5 v. Heat |
Top |
106-112 |
Loss |
-109 |
10 h 58 m |
Show
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My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Bos Celtics at 6:30 ET. The Boston Celtics and Miami Heat are both 1-1 in the NBA's restart, leaving the 44-22 Celtics 2 1/2 games up on the 42-25 Heat with only SIX games left on the schedule as the teams battle for the East's No. 3 seed. Boston last played Sunday, holding off Portland 128-124, in a game they once led by 24 points! Miami played yesterday afternoon and lost a tough one, 107-103 to Toronto. Miami lost the game from the three-point line, shooting just 14 of 45 (31.1%), while allowing Toronto to connect on 16 of 32 (50.0%). Boston's best player, Jayson Tatum, was a brutal 2-of-18 from the floor in Boston's seven-point loss to Milwaukee last Friday but he rebounded to score 34 points plus add a career-high eight assists in the Sunday win over Portland. The third overall pick in the 2017 NBA Draft has increased his scoring average in each of his three seasons; from 13.9 to 15.7 to 23.4. PG Kemba Walker is on a minutes-restriction as he fights his way back from a knee injury but had 16 points (19 minutes) in the loss to Milwaukee, then added 14 points in 22 minutes against Portland. Jaylen Brown added 30 points against the Blazers (had 22 vs the Bucks) and Gordon Hayward added 22. The Celtics' bench is led by guard Marcus Smart, who is one of the best defenders in the league and also averages 13.5 PPG. Backup Center Enes Kanter averages 8.1 points and 7.6 rebounds. The Heat are led by the all-around talent of Jimmy Butler (20.2-6.6-6.1) but also have SEVEN more players scoring in double digits. That group is led by Bam Adebayo (16.2-10.4-5.1), an All-Star for the Heat this year, plus veteran PG Goran Dragic (16.2 PPG & 5.1 APG). Adebayo had a quiet game, producing 10 points and eight rebounds vs Toronto, while Dragic had 25 points, five rebounds and five assists. It should be noted that Miami was 24-9 through the end of December but since the calendar moved to 2020, has gone a pedestrian 18-16. I will also bring up the fact that the Heat are 5-6 this season without rest but 37-19 with at least one day between games. The Celtics are 2-0 against the Heat this season, winning 112-93 on Dec 4 and 109-101 on Jan 28. Boston takes a FIVE-game regular-season winning streak against Miami into this contest and extends it to SIX straight, giving them a 3 1/2 game lead for that No. 3 seed with just FIVE games remaining. Good luck...Larry
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08-02-20 |
Spurs v. Grizzlies -4 |
|
108-106 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 43 m |
Show
|
My 8* Weekend Wipeout is on the Mem Grizzlies at 4:05 ET. The 28-36 San Antonio Spurs beat the Sacramento Kings 129-120 on Friday but at just 28-36, realize that catching or at least staying within shouting distance of the West's No. 8 seed will be a tough 'road to hoe.' Of course, having Pop as one's coach, surely helps. DeMar DeRozan scored 25 of his 27 points in the second half to pace San Antonio to a win in its first official game back in action, as he scored 17 points in the fourth quarter, including 13 in the final 5 1/2 minutes. Memphis is the West's current No. 8 seed and lost its first game since the COVID-19 shutdown, 140-135 in OT. It was a ragged game that had 62 called fouls and five technicals, while Memphis allowed Portland to shoot 53.8%. This is NOT "your father's Spurs" and Coach Pop is staring right at his first-ever losing season as a head coach. Aldridge (18.9 & 7.4) is out for the rest of the year, plus center Trey Lyles (6.4 & 5.7), who started 53 of 63 games, is lost for the rest of the way, as well (appendectomy). DeRozan (22.2-5.6-5.6) will be relied on heavily but I'm not sure we can expect Derrick White (10.6) to score 26 points again (it marked a season-high) vs Memphis. Veteran Rudy Gay (10.6) is a valuable player off the bench but his 19 points was almost double his season average. Then there is Lonnie Waller IV, who scored 16 points. Walker is in his second season and Friday played in just his 71st game (averages 5.1 PPG), making only his fifth start. Rookie PG Ja Morant will likely win ROY honors and he scored 22 points and added 11 assists on Friday, Jarren Jackson Jr led the way with 33 points plus 6-8 rookie Clarke added 21 points off the bench. Veteran center Jonas Valanciunas scored 16 points and SG and Dillon Brooks added 15 points. This Memphis team has a scoring 'punch' that past editions rarely had, as evidenced by the fact that the Grizzlies tied the single-season franchise record of five games with 130 or more points that was set back in 2006-07. Memphis is 32-34, giving them a 2 1/2 game lead over the Blazers and a three-game lead over the Spurs. Beat the Spurs here and get some help from the Celtics, who play the Blazers today, and Memphis could be 'smiling' by Sunday night. Memphis can't control what Portland does but I see then winning here "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry
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08-02-20 |
Blazers v. Celtics -4 |
Top |
124-128 |
Push |
0 |
9 h 25 m |
Show
|
My 10* NBA Game of the Week is on the Bos Celtics at 3:35 ET. The Portland Trail Blazers edged the Memphis Grizzlies Friday night 140-135 in OT. The win ups Portland's record to 30-37 and leaves them 2 1/2 games behind the 32-34 Grizzlies for the last available playoff spot in the Western Conference. Portland's chase of Memphis resumes on Sunday, when the Blazers face the 43-22 Boston Celtics. The Celtics own the third-best record in the East but after losing Friday 119-112 to Milwaukee, aren't chasing anyone. With just seven games remaining, Boston trails Milwaukee by 10 1/2 games and Toronto by 6 1/2 games in the East. The Celtics' concern now is staying ahead of the 42-24 Miami Heat, who they lead by just 1 1/2 games for the third-seed. Portland expects its guard duo of Lillard and McCollum to lead the way each game and McColum scored 33 points with Lillard adding 29 and nine assists in the OT win over The Grizz. The really good news was the return to play of 7-foot center Jusuf Nurkic, who played his first official game since March 25, 2019. He recorded 18 points, nine rebounds, a career-high-tying six blocks and five assists in 33 minutes as a starter. Starting PF Zach Collins also returned after being out since late October due to an injured left shoulder, adding nine rebounds, seven points and three assists in 37 minutes. As for the Celtics, they fell behind 17-2 to the Bucks on Friday in a 119-122 loss. However, Boston closed the gap to just six at the half and entered the 4th quarter tied. The game was still tied with under 1 1/2 minutes left (107-all), but Milwaukee outscored Boston 12-5 to get the win and cover. All this, with Boston's best player, Jayson Tatum (23.3 & 7.1), shooting just 2-of-18 from the floor (five points). All Star PG Kemba Walker had been out due to an injury to his left knee but scored 16 points in 19 minutes. Head coach Brad Stevens said Walker will still be on a minutes restriction against Portland but Boston will take another 16 points from Walker, here. Brown (22 & 4) and Hayward (17-9-6) both had solid games plus Boston guards Smart (23) and Wannamaker (14) each had strong games off the bench. All games in the Orlando 'bubble' are neutral-site contests but it should be helpful to look at teams' road record before the stoppage of play. Portland was just 11023, while Boston was solid 20-12. Boston's a significantly better team and don't expect Tatum to go 2-of-18 again, or for Portland to shoot 53.8% as a team (Blazers are shooting 64.2% on the season). Lay the points with Boston. Good luck...Larry
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08-01-20 |
Lakers v. Raptors +4 |
Top |
92-107 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 13 m |
Show
|
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Tor Raptors at 8:30. LBJ noted that finding a rhythm on offense might take time for the Los Angeles Lakers. One could say that was the case for the Lakers on Thursday, as they escaped with a 103-101 win over the Clippers. The Lakers shot only 39.0% from the floor, including 11-36 (30.6%) on threes. A.D. led the way with 34 points (eight rebounds), while LBJ (16-11-7) and Kuzma (16) were the only other Lakers in double digits. The win gives the Lakers a 50-14 record, while increasing their edge in the Western Conference standings to 6 1/2 games over the Clippers with only SEVEN seven contests remaining in the abbreviated regular season. Toronto is the defending champions and owned the league's third best record at 46-18, when play was halted in March. However, the Raptors are a distant second in the Eastern Conference behind the 54-12 Milwaukee Bucks. This contest marks Toronto's first game of the restart. James scored the winning basket inside with 12.8 seconds left, converting after getting the rebound of his own missed shot. He also forced Paul George to miss a game-winning three-point attempt at the final horn. "I love having the ball in my hands late in the game, tie game, being down, being up," said James. However, he struggled on offense, shooting only 6-for-19 and committing five turnovers. LA is without starting PG Bradley, who opted out of the restart. His perimeter defense will be missed. The Lakers have gotten decent production from their two-headed center duo, as starter McGee averaged 6.8 & 5.8 and Howard adds 7.4 & 7.3. The Raptors completed the last of three scrimmages last Tuesday, taking a 117-106 loss against the Phoenix Suns. Pascal Siakam led the Raptors with 17 points while Norman Powell added 14. Fred VanVleet finished with 13, and Kyle Lowry had 11 points and seven assists. Of course, the defending champs no longer have Kawhi (also, Danny Green signed with the Lakers as a FA) but the roster is loaded with quality players. More importantly, all are healthy and available for the restart. Up front it's PF Siakam (23.6 & 7.5), SF Anunoby (11.4) plus a center combo of Ibaka (16.0 & 8.3) and Gasol (7.6 & 6.3). Toronto's guard trio of Lowry (19.7-4.8-7.7), VanVleet (17.6-3.8-6.6) and Powell (16.4) match up favorably against ANY backcourt in the league. The Lakers are off an emotional win over the Clippers and I see no reason for them to be laying points here vs the Raptors, who have beaten the Lakers 10 straight times! The Lakers last defeated Toronto back on Nov 30, 2014. Take the points! Good luck...Larry
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07-31-20 |
Kings -3 v. Spurs |
Top |
120-129 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 7 m |
Show
|
My 10* NBA Restart Opener is on the Sac Kings at 8:00 ET. The Sacramento Kings and the San Antonio Spurs are two of the 22 teams playing in the Orlando 'bubble.' Just nine teams compete in the Eastern Conference, while tonight's participants are among 13 Western Conference teams still competing. The Kings are 3 1/2 games behind the Memphis Grizzlies for the final Western Conference spot while the Spurs are four out with just eight games to play. Catching the Grizzlies (currently the 8th-seed) is a stretch but both teams still have a chance to stay with four games of the 8th-seed, which could get them into a two-game "play-in" situation. San Antonio's task was harder with the news of power forward LaMarcus Aldridge being lost to season-ending shoulder surgery. The Spurs have made the playoffs in 22 consecutive seasons but will need a strong finishing kick to keep that streak alive. Meanwhile, the Kings are looking to avoid missing the playoffs for the 14th straight season and are currently in a virtual tie with the Portland Trail Blazers for the 9th-seed, a half-game up on the Pelicans and Spurs. Sacramento PF Marvin Bagley III (foot) will miss the rest of the season but realistically, it's NOT a big deal. He averages 14.2 & 7.5 but has played in only 13 of the Kings' 64 games. More notably. PG De'Aaron Fox (20.4 & 6.8 APG) is ready to play after tweaking his left ankle earlier this month plus SF Harrison Barnes (14.7 & 4.8 ) recently rejoined the club after testing positive for COVID-19. Luke Walton has a VERY deep team and recently said that the Kings have fared better this season when Bogdan Bogdanovic (14.5) starts at SG, while Buddy Hield (19.8-4.8-3.1) comes off the bench. He's indicated that will again be the pecking order against San Antonio. SG Bazemore was a late-January pickup and in 21 games has averaged 10.3 PPG. Frontcourt depth comes in center Holmes (12.8 & 8.3) and PF Bjelica (11.9 & 6.4). Popovich has indicated that with Aldridge out, veteran guard DeMar DeRozan (22.2-5.6-5.6) could see time at power forward. He would join center Jakob Poeltl (5.3 & 5.3) and the lineup arrangement would include PGs Dejounte Murray (10.7) and Derrick White (10.4) as starters along with SG Bryn Forbes (11.2). SF Gay (10. & 5.4) will be a valuable contributor but losing center Trey Lyles (6.4 & 5.7), who started 53 of 63 games, to an appendectomy is the kind of under the radar injury that will be a bigger than expected loss. This is NOT "your father's Spurs" and Coach Pop is staring right at his first-ever losing season as a head coach. The Kings have won FOUR of their last five meetings with the Spurs and the reason is, they are the BETTER TEAM. Lay the 'short' price! Good luck...Larry
|
07-25-20 |
Tigers v. Reds -1.5 |
Top |
6-4 |
Loss |
-114 |
11 h 12 m |
Show
|
My 9* Run-Line Game of the Month (IL) is on the Cin Reds at 5:10 ET. The NL Central shapes up as the most wide-open division in MLB (not counting Pittsburgh, naturally). The Cubs were +230 to win the division, the Cards were +240 and Brewers were +350. That trio could be considered "the usual subjects" but the Reds (at +230), were listed as co-favorites with the Cubs. Their starting pitching rotation of Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer, Wade Miley and Anthony DeSclafani looks VERY good plus the DH will help the lineup, Also of note is the fact that Joey Votto has been joined by the bats of Mike Moustakas plus Nicholas Castellanos. Meanwhile, the Tigers are coming off a MLB-worst 47-114 season in which Detroit finished 53 1/2-games back of the Twins in the NL Central. The teams "played to form" on Friday, as the Reds won 7-1. Sonny Gray pitched six innings, allowing three hits, one ER and added nine Ks. Mike Moustakas paid early dividends on that four-year, $64 million contract he signed in the offseason, by belting a two-run HR to highlight a three-hit, four-RBI performance. Taking the mound for the second game of this three-game set will be Detroit's Ivan Nova (11-12, 4.72 ERA in 2019 with the White Sox) and Cincy's Luis Castillo (15-8, 3.40 ERA in 2019).Nova made a MLB-high 34 starts last season but won just 11 games. His 114 K gave him his worst strikeout rate (5.49 per nine innings) since 2014. Nova sports a 5-7 record with a 4.24 ERA in 12 career starts vs the Reds, Castillo started strong in 2019 with an 11-4 mark and enjoyed his first All-Star selection (was 8-3 with a 2.29 ERA at the break). His 11th win came on August 5 but he won just FOUR of his last nine starts (Reds were just 4-5 in those games). However, his 15 wins were fifth-best in the NL and his 226 strikeouts tied for 12th in strikeouts per nine innings (10.7). Castillo will be getting his first start against the tigers. Castillo has set the bar high on the heels of his breakout season in 2019, claiming that he'd like to capture the National League Cy Young Award in 2020 and have the Cincinnati Reds qualify for the playoffs. Winning the Cy Young may be a 'bridge too far' but the Reds making the playoffs (recently expanded!) seems like a good bet. So is laying the 1 1/2-runs with the Reds in tonight's game against the hapless Tigers. Good luck...Larry
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03-11-20 |
Georgia +4 v. Ole Miss |
Top |
81-63 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 49 m |
Show
|
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on Georgia at 7:00 ET.
Georgia and Ole Miss have each endured disappointing seasons, as both enter their first-round matchup in the SEC tournament Wednesday in Nashville at 15-16 on the season. Ole Miss went 6-12 in the SEC, so the Bulldogs enter the tourney as the no. 12 seed, while the Bulldogs' 5-13 record makes them the 13th-seed. Georgia closed February by winning three of its final four games but has dropped its final two contests, getting blown out 94-64 at LSU to end the regular season. Ole Miss knows a little about getting blown out themselves, losing 69-44 at in-state rival Miss St on Saturday, snapping a modest two-game winning streak.
Tom Crean had success at Marquette (five NCAAs, including a Final 4) and Indiana (four NCAAs, including three Sweet 16s) but his first season at Georgia (2018-19) produced an 11-21 record, including 2-16 in SEC play. This year's team went 10-3 in non-conference play as noted above, the SEC portion of its schedule went only slightly better than last year. 6-5 guard Anthony Edwards enters the postseason leading all freshmen nationally in scoring (19.5) and is 42 points shy of matching Jacky Dorsey’s school record for most points by a freshman (646). The 6-5 guard, who is a projected NBA lottery pick this summer, has scored 20-plus points 13 times and 30-plus points on three occasions. 6-9 Junior forward/center Rayshaun Hammonds averages 12.6 points and 7.3 rebounds and over his last four games is averaging 14.8 points and nine rebounds on 51.2 percent shooting. Freshman PG Wheeler, adds 8.8 & 4.4 APG plus senior guard Crump is averaging 6.9 PPG, while 6-8 freshman forward Camara chips in 6.5 & 4.4.
Kermit Davis spent 16 seasons at Middle Tenn St and led the Blue Raiders into the postseason in SEVEN of his final nine seasons at Murfreesboro. That included THREE trips to the Big Dance and his 2017 team won 31 games. He took over at Oxford last season and the Rebels were able to 'sneak' into the NCAA tourney but lost their first game, finishing 20-13. However, Year 2 has NOT gone as planned. Like Georgia, Ole Miss has a terrific guard in Breein Tyree, who comes in averaging 19.7 PPG (he landed on the All-SEC first team). Shuler (11.5-4.5-3.3) and Hinson (10.2 & 4.7) join Tyree in the backcourt, while the 6-7 Buffen (10.1 & 6.1) and the 6-10 Sy (9.1 & 5.4) are the team's top frontcourt producers.
Georgia will play without senior guard Tyree Crump (mononucleosis) but I still believe Georgia is the better team on a neutral court. Ole Miss went 1-8 SU on the SEC road and that LONE win came back on Jan 25 in Athens, 70-60. The Bulldogs will REMEMBER plus we are getting points!
Good luck...Larry
|
03-11-20 |
St. John's -2.5 v. Georgetown |
Top |
75-62 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 34 m |
Show
|
My 10* Conference Rivalry Game of the Year is on St John's at 7:00 ET.
Georgetown and St. John's were once 'giants' in the Big East but when the two schools meet Wednesday in the first round Wednesday of the Big East Tournament, the longtime rivals will check in as the tourney's 8th and 9th seeds, respectively. Both teams enjoyed success out of conference this season as the Hoyas went 10-3 and the Red Storm were 11-2. However, that success didn't carry over to conference play, as each went 5-13.
Chris Mullin resigned after last season, ending a disappointing four-year run at his alma mater. The Red Storm posted losing records in his first three seasons but last year's team went 21-13 and did make an NCAA appearance (no small deal, as it was just this once-proud basketball program's THIRD Big Dance appearance in 17 years!). Taking over was Mike Anderson, who came to renown at UAB and Missouri, before returning to Arkansas. His eight-year run with the Razorbacks didn't go as planned, as the school made just three NCAA appearances. At the end of last year he was fired, marking the end of a 25-year association with Arkansas as both an assistant and head basketball coach. Anderson is 59-years-old and had NO connection to NYC, so he was a surprise choice. This is Patrick Ewing's third season at Georgetown and after a 15-15 'rookie' year, his Hoyas won 19 games last season but lost in the first round of the NIT. The good news entering the current season was, FOUR starters returned. Losing Jessie Govan (17.5 & 7.5) from last year was a big deal but what was NOT expected was that returning guard Akinjo played just seven games before deciding to transfer (he was averaging 13.4 & 4.4 APG) plus the 6-7 LeBlanc (averaging 7.2) also decided to transfer.
Julian Champagnie is a 6-7 freshman who has made an immediate impact. He comes in averaging 10.0 PPG and a team-high 6.5 RPG. He became the first St. John's player to be named to the All-Big East freshman team since Shamorie Ponds and Marcus Lovett in 2017. He enters the tourney having scored in double digits in SEVEN straight games and has averaged 19 points and 7.7 rebounds while shooting 52.5 percent from the floor in three March games. 6-6 sophomore forward Marcellus Earlington (8.7 & 4.5) has also produced when given enough minutes. 6-6 junior Figueroa (14.3 & 4.5) and 6-5 senior Heron (13.8) returned in the backcourt plus PG Dunn has delivered a solid season (12.0-3.7-3.8) after being given the OK to play (was a transfer from Cleveland St). However, Heron won't play here due to an ankle injury.
As for the Hoyas, they lost three quality players to transfer early in the season and have been without leading scorers Omer Yurtseven and Mac McClung for six and nine games, respectively, since early February. The 7-0 Omer Yurtseven was averaging 15.8 & 10.0 and guard McClung, 15.5 PPG. 'Carrying' Georgetown these days are guards Jahvon Blair (10.9 & 3.0), Terrell Allen (9.1 & 4.0 APG) and Jagan Mosely (8.4 & 4.5) in the backcourt plus the 6-8 Jamorko Pickett (10.1 & 6.2) and the 6-11 Qudus Wahab (5.4 & 4.2), up front. Blair has been the team's best player since McClung went out, averaging 17.6 points in the last 10 games
The Hoyas and the Red Storm have met on 115 occasions, including NINE times in the Big East Tournament. These two storied programs combined to win EIGHT of the first 10 Big East Tournament titles (six by Georgetown) but just ONE, since (by St. John's). It's safe to say the NEITHER will be around very long this week but Georgetown is a mere 'shell' of the team that opened the season back in November. The Hoyas are 2-0 vs St John's this season, including a win on Super Bowl Sunday here at MSG, when they overcame a 17-point second-half deficit to win, 73-72. St John's gets out to a lead tonight and DOESN'T 'let go!"
Good luck...Larry
|
03-11-20 |
Washington v. Arizona -5 |
Top |
70-77 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 12 m |
Show
|
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Arizona at 5:30 ET.
Sean Miller began his 10th season as the Arizona head coach during the 2018–2019 season but Arizona ended the season 17−15, missing the NCAA tournament for only the SECOND time in the previous 34 seasons. Miller's 11th season at Arizona featured a top-5 recruiting class and the Wildcats were ranked No. 21 in the AP's preseason. The Wildcats opened the season 9-0 and had the look of a team that could go far in the NCAA Tournament but inconsistent play has resulted in an 11-11 record since. Arizona finished 10-8 in Pac 12 play and enter the tourney as the No. 5 seed.
Mike Hopkins spent more than 20 years as an assistant to Jim Boeheim at Syracuse, before taking the job at Washington for the 2017-18 season. His first team won 21 games and an NIT berth but last year's team won 27 games and earned an NCAA bid. However, FOUR starters are gone from that team, including three NBA draft picks. That's never good but Hopkins recruited a pair of McDonald's All-Americans (big men Isaiah Stewart and Jaden McDaniels) plus added a third with the transfer of guard Quade Green from Kentucky. However, after a 10-2 start, the Huskies' season imploded. Quade Green was ruled academically ineligible after a Jan 5 win against USC and Washington has gone 4-12 without him.
The Huskies lost NINE straight from Jan 18-Feb 20 but they won their first two conference road games of the season last weekend in Arizona (over the Sun Devils and Wildcats) and have won three of four since that nine-game losing streak. 6-9 freshman Stewart (16.6 & 8.7) and McDaniels (13.1 & 5.8) have been as good as advertised. Stewart was named to the Pac-12 first team on Monday and McDaniels is the Pac-12 Freshman of the Week after he averaged 18 points, six rebounds, 2.5 blocks and a steal in last weekend's state of Arizona sweep. Senior guard Carter (12.5 & 5.0) is the team's third double digit scorer plus sophomore guard Jamal Bey went 16-for-17 from the free-throw line and totaled 23 points in the sweep of the Arizona schools, although his season average is just 5.8 PPG.
Arizona's 6-11 Zeke Nnaji was named Pac-12 Freshman of the Year after leading the conference with 14 double-doubles and leading the club in scoring (16.3) and rebounding (8.6). PG Nico Mannion, a 6-3 guard from Italy, was a second-team and all-freshmen team selection after averaging 14.0 PPG and 5.4 APG. He's already said he'll leave school after the season and he's projected to be an NBA lottery pick this summer. Josh Green, a 6-6 freshman guard, scored a total of 20 points in two games since missing two with a back injury, and enters the tourney averaging 11.7 & 4.6. That trio of freshman have led the way for Arizona but senior guard Smith (8.5) and 6-9 senior Gettings (6.7 & 4.2) have been regular contributors. 6-10 senior Jeter (6.8 & 4.3) is supposedly eligible to return from his suspension, but who really knows.
Maybe I'm 'spitting into the wind' here but I just can't see Arizona NOT putting forth an excellent effort off Saturday's 'ugly' home loss to Washington, in which the Wildcats shot 35.1% and scored 63 points. Arizona sis shooting 44.8% on the season and averaging 76.4 PPG.
Good luck...Larry
|
03-11-20 |
Fordham v. George Washington -2.5 |
Top |
72-52 |
Loss |
-115 |
23 h 41 m |
Show
|
My 9* Revenge Rout is on George Washington at 3:30 ET.
The 8-22 Fordham Rams enter the A-10 conference tournament as the No. 14-seed, after finishing dead-last in the conference standings at 2-16. Awaiting the Rams at Barclays Center on Wednesday afternoon will be the 12-19 George Washington Colonials, who own the No. 11-seed after going 6-12 in conference play. The 'kicker' is, BOTH of Fordham's A-10 wins have come over GW.
The Rams lost the 6-9 Ohams (11.0 & 8.2) was lost for the season after just 13 games with a knee injury and then the 6-9 Eyisi (6.5 & 5.6) went down im mid-Feb with a foot injury. Fordham head coach Jeff Neubauer will start four guards and 6-11 freshman Soriano (4.5 & 6.4). Guards Portley (10.4 & 3.7) and Cobb (10.2) are now the team's lone double digits scorers for a team averaging only 58.1 PPG (349th).
Head coach Jamion Christian led Mount St Mary's to two NCAA berths in six years and then led Siena to a NINE-game turnaround in his only year at Loudonville, NY (2018-19). This is his first season at GW and last year's team was just 9-24. This year's team is better but has NOT had the success the school had hoped for. GW was 10-11 entering Feb but has finished the season in a complete 'free-fall,' losing EIGHT of its final 10 games. Not sure one can explain it, as the Colonials own four double digitscorers. Senior PG Potter (14.3-3.2-5.9) leads the way, followed by junior guard Jackson (11.8), freshman guard Nelson (10.4) and 6-7 freshman forward Battle (11.9 & 5.3).
How does a team lose TWICE to sad-sack Fordham. My bet says GW won't lose THREE times this season to the Rams.
Good luck...Larry
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03-11-20 |
Utah v. Oregon State -3.5 |
Top |
69-71 |
Loss |
-109 |
9 h 21 m |
Show
|
My 9* Afternoon Delight is on Oregon St at 3:00 ET.
16-14 Utah and 17-13 Oregon St tip off the festivities in Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena on Wednesday afternoon as they meet in the 8-9 game of the Pac-12 tournament (both were 7-11 in league play). The winner will advance to Thursday's quarterfinals to face top-seeded Oregon. The Runnin’ Utes played just one game during the final week of the regular season, but it produced an emotional win as Utah rallied to stun rival Colorado 74-72 in overtime and secure the ninth seed. Meanwhile, the Beavers swept their regular season-ending homestand against Stanford and California to garner the eighth seed. Utah head coach Larry Krystkowiak and his Oregon State counterpart (Wayne Tinkle), were teammates at Montana during the 1985 and ’86 seasons. The former teammates will meet for the 10th time as opposing head coaches (Krystkowiak owns a modest 5-4 advantage).
6-6 forward Timmy Allen is the team’s leading scorer (17.5) and rebounder (7.3), while Gach (11.0) and PG Jones (9.6 & 4.5 APG) give the Utes a solid backcourt duo. Gach led the way in last Saturday’s home win over the Buffaloes, scoring a career-high 28 points, to garner his first career Pac-12 Player of the Week award. However, freshman PG Jones suffered a concussion Feb 29 against California. He missed the Colorado game and is NOT expected to play in this one. Utah does have solid depth though, as four other players are chipping in between 7.0 and 7.8 PPG.
Tinkle’s son Tres, a 6-7 senior forward, leads the team in scoring (18.4) and rebounding (7.0), while guard Ethan Thompson (14.9-4.2-4.5) and the 7-0 Kylor Kelley (11.1 & 5.7) also average double digits for the Beavers (note: Kelley's 3.5 blocks per game rank second nationally). Guard Reichle (7.9) and 6-6 forward Hollins (5.2 & 3.1) round out the Beavers' main contributors. Seniors Tinkle and Kelley lead the Beavers into the conference tourney after combining for 43 points, 14 rebounds, five assists and four blocks in a 74-56 Senior Day win over California on Saturday.
Yes, this is a neutral-site contest but note that Utah lost all NINE of its Pac-12 road games, averaging 68.9 points while allowing 78.0. Utah's 6-6 Allen will have a tough time matching up with OSU's Tinkle (Utah has no one to match OSU center Kelley) plus Thompson will be the best backcourt player on the floor. Ore St advances easily for another game with Civil War rival Oregon on Thursday.
Good luck...Larry
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03-10-20 |
Suns v. Blazers -3.5 |
Top |
105-121 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 13 m |
Show
|
My 10* West Coast Crusher is on the Por Blazers at 10:05 ET.
The 26-38 Phoenix Suns will visit the 28-37 Portland Trailblazers tonight. The Suns record is not much of a surprise but the Blazers, who last season reached the Western Conference Finals, have been a HUGE disappointment. Portland lost 123-11 last Saturday at home to the Sacramento Kings, its EIGHTH in the last 11 games. The Blazers are currently 4 1/2 game back of the West's No. 8 seed (Memphis), with New Orleans and Sacramento a half-game ahead of them. The Suns last made the playoffs in 2010 and have averaged 21.8 wins the previous four seasons.
The Suns beat the Blazers 127-117 in Phoenix last Friday and then toppled the Giannis-less Bucks 140-131 on Sunday. Aron Baynes (11.6 & 5.7) started both games in place of center Deandre Ayton (19.0 & 12.0), who is out with an ankle injury. He had 37 points and 16 rebounds in Friday's game with Portland and followed with 24 & 7 vs the Bucks. Both SG Booker (26.1-4.1-6.5) and PG Rubio (12.9-4.6-8.9) are healthy and each had great games vs the Bucks. Booker registered 36 points and eight assists, while Rubio had 25 points, 13 rebounds and 13 assists for his seventh career triple double. However, SF Oubre, who's having a breakout season at 18.7 & 6.4, is out until April with a knee injury.
The Blazers own the outstanding backcourt duo of Lillard (29.0-4.3-7.8) and McCollum (22.5-4.1-4.3) plus center Whiteside (16.3 & 14.3) has done all that could have been expected of him. I'm NO big fan of 'Melo but the even he's been better than expected, chipping in 15.1 & 6.3. Recently acquired Ariza is a terrific defender and is averaging 10.5 & 4.7 in his 20 games with Portland. Why the Blazers continue to struggle is a mystery to me.
As noted above, the Suns just beat the Blazers last Friday and have now won two straight games against Portland but that's after losing the previous 11! With the Blazers off a home loss to the Kings and the Suns off an impressive win over the Bucks, I'm going "all in" on Portland in this one! After all, prior to beating the Blazers and Bucks, the Suns had gone just 3-12 ATS their previous 15 games.
Good luck...Larry
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03-10-20 |
Magic v. Grizzlies -2 |
Top |
120-115 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 51 m |
Show
|
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Mem Grizzlies at 8:05 ET.
The Orlando Magic lost EIGHT of nine from Jan 22 through Feb 8 but Sunday's 126-106 win at Houston gave the Magic their SEVENTH win in their last 11 games. The Magic wrap up their four-game road trip tonight at Memphis with a 29-35 record, closing within just a half-game of the Nets for the East's No. 7 seed. maybe more importantly, the Magic are now 5 1/2 games clear of the East's playoff 'cut line.' Like the Magic in the East, the 32-32 Memphis Grizzlies are currently the No. 8 seed in the West. The Grizzlies took an 8-2 run into the All Star break but retuned from the break and promptly lost FIVE in a row. However, the Grizzlies welcome the Magic to the FedExForum having won FOUR of their last five.
The Magic are averaging a modest 106.2 PPG (28th) on the season but they have averaged 120.8 points during their last 11 games, reaching at least 120 on five occasions in that run. Center Nikola Vucevic (19.5 & 11.0) and PF Aaron Gordon (14.4 & 7.6) both produced double-doubles against Houston's "small-ball" lineup. It was Gordon's SIXTH double-double in his last eight games. SGs Fournier (19.8) and Ross (14.6) have produced all season (note: Ross has played in 62 of 64 games without a single start), while the PG position has been ably manned by Fultz (12.0 & 5.2 APG) and Augustine (10.3 & 4.6 APG).
Grizzlies center Jonas Valanciunas (14.7 & 11.1) scored 27 points and pulled down 17 rebounds for his sixth double-double in the last seven games on Saturday, as the Grizzlies beat the Hawks, 118-101. He's one of SIX Memphis players averaging in double digits on the season but TWO of those players are currently sidelined. 6-11 PF Jarren Jackson (16.9 & 4.7) and 6-8 SF Brandon Clarke (12.0 & 5.8) are both out and are not expected to return to late-March. Rookie PG Ja Morant (17.6-3.5-7.0), SG Brooks (15.6), Valanciunas and SG Josh Jackson (10.2 & 3.4) are the "healthy four" averaging double digits. Josh Jackson was the 4th overall pick of the 2017 Draft (Phoenix) but was traded to Memphis over the summer. He's spent most of the season in the G-League and has played in just 17 games since joining the team. However, he's averaged 17 points over the last four games, while the 6-10 Dieng (acquired from Minnesota) is averaging 7.5 & 6.7 in 20 minutes in his 11 games with Memphis.
The Magic are off a HUGE upset win over Houston and now play their FOURTH road game in the last seven days/ Memphis was just 33-49 last season but a victory tonight will match its win total from all of last season. "The Price is Right" for Memphis to get that 33rd win and COVER "with room to spare!"
Good luck...Larry
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03-10-20 |
North Carolina -3.5 v. Virginia Tech |
Top |
78-56 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 12 m |
Show
|
My 9* Revenge Rout is on North Carolina at 7:00 ET. Roy Williams' Tar Heels were ranked No. 9 in the AP's preseason poll but when "all the dust had settled" in the ACC's regular season, North Carolina owned a 13-18 overall record, including 6-14 in the ACC (tied with Pitt and Wake for the league's worst mark). It would be hard to make this up! Te Tar Heels open ACC tourney paly against the Va Tech Hokies, who are 16-15, including 7-13 in the ACC. Mike Young spent 17 years at Wofford, where he led the Terriers to five NCAA appearances, including last season. Wofford defeated Seton Hall 84-68 in LY's Big Dance, giving him the first NCAA Tournament win of his career. He took over at Va Tech, when Buzz Williams used Tech's Sweet 16 appearance last season to take the Texas A&M job. Young lost Va Tech's leading scorer from last year (Alexander-Walker at 16.2) to the NBA and couldn't convince the 6-10 Blackshear (14.9 & 7.5) to stay (he's a graduate transfer at Florida). The Hokies surprised by opening 6-0 and after a two-OT win over UNC on Jan 22, were14-5 (5-3 in the ACC). However, 'the bottom fell out' for Va Tech, as the Hokies went 2-10 SU and ATS over their final 12 regular season games.
Losing streaks of four, five and seven games have already made this a forgettable season in Chapel Hill, but North Carolina had won three in a row before losing 89-76 at Duke on Saturday. UNC freshman guard Cole Anthony began his college career with a bang by scoring 34 points in his debut. North Carolina opened the season 5-0 but Anthony went down with a knee injury in early December and didn't return until the beginning of February. He's played well since his return and checks in with a line of 19.6-5.7-4.1. Fellow freshman, the 6-10 Bacot, has averaged 9.6 & 8.2, while junior forward Garrison Brooks has had a strong season, averaging 16.7 & 8.8. Senior guard Robinson went down with an ankle injury just as Anthony returned but he's been back in the lineup the last SIX games and checks in at 11.9 PPG.
SEVEN of Va Tech's top-eight scorers are guards. Two freshman lead the way, Landers Nolley II (15.6 & 5.9) and Tyrece Radford (10.4 & 6.4). Guards Alleyene (9.0) and Bede (5.2-3.6-5.5) plus 6-5 SF Horne (7.6 & 4.2) complete the starting-five. Horne is the lone frontcourt player of note but note that Va Tech's two freshman guards are the team's top rebounders (see above).
One of North Carolina's MANY frustrating losses came at Virginia Tech back on Jan 22, when Tyrece Radford hit the game-winning shot with 0.4 seconds left in overtime. As noted, Va Tech's imploded since then (see above) and enters this contest with many (most?) of its best players struggling. Horne snapped out of a four-game slump in which he totaled 16 points on 6-of-24 shooting with 17 points on 6-of-10 from the floor in Wednesday's victory over Clemson and paced the Hokies in scoring again with 14 points on 5-of-9 shooting vs Notre Dame. However, freshman guards Nolley and Radford (team's top scorers and rebounders) have both failed to score 10 points in THREE of the team's last four games! The Tar heels may not last past Wednesday's second round but expect UNC to earn a "revenge win" and COVER vs Va Tech, as the Hokies are 0-15 ATS in their 15 losses this season!
Good luck...Larry
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03-10-20 |
St Francis PA -1 v. Robert Morris |
Top |
67-77 |
Loss |
-115 |
10 h 49 m |
Show
|
My 10* NEC Tourney Game of the Year is on St Francis (Pa) at 7:00 ET.
Merrimack (14-4) was the regular-season champion of the Northeast Conference in its first Division I season. In fact, Merrimack became the first school ever to win 20 games in its first Division I season, going 20-11. However, the school is ineligible for postseason play as it transitions to Division I. The St. Francis (Pa.) Red Flash and the Robert Morris Colonials both finished 13-5 in conference play but the Colonials' 76-658 home win over the Red Flash in the regular season finale (Feb 29) earned Robert Morris the No. 1 seed. That came with a HUGE bonus, as 19-14 Robert Morris gets to host 22-9 St Francis (Pa) in the championship game.
Colonials head coach Andy Toole has Robert Morris a win away from clinching a berth in the NCAA Tournament, an event he has experienced as a player, assistant and head coach. Toole played in back-to-back NCAA Tournaments as a PG at Penn in 2002 and ’03. He coached in back-to-back NCAA tourneys as a Robert Morris assistant to Mike Rice in ’09 and ’10, plus Toole guided the Colonials there as head coach in 2015. St Francis head coach Rob Krimmel has nowhere-near the success Toole has experienced. St Francis was his first-ever head coaching gig and he wasn't able to produce a winning season in any of his first FIVE. He entered this season off 18-13 and 18-15 years and while the Red Flash expected another winning season, this year's 22-9 mark is quite a surprise. Can Krimmel lead the Red Flash to a win here, giving the school just its second-ever NCAA berth (made it back in 1991)?
Robert Morris has the homecourt edge but St Francis is the better team. The Colonials own a nice guard trio in Williams (13.5 & 4.4), Bramah (13.0 & 7.9) and Treacy (8.5-2.8-4.5) plus the 6-8 Mendy (8.5 & 4.7) is their best frontcourt performer. However, the Red Flash counter with the dynamic guard duo of Isaiah Blackmon, the 2019-20 NEC Player of the Year, and Keith Braxton, the 2018-19 NEC Player of the Year. Blackmon is averaging 18.9 & 5.4 and Braxton 17.5-7.4-3.8. 6-6 forward Thompson (10.5 & 5.) is a third double digit scorer.
St Francis has scored 87 and 84 points in its two NEC tourney wins and won't let playing away from home stand in its way of the school's second-ever NCAA berth (see above). After all, the Red Flash are a MONEY-MAKING 11-3 ATS (79%) in road and neutral-site games this season! Party like it's 1991!
Good luck...Larry
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03-10-20 |
Illinois-Chicago v. Northern Kentucky -4 |
Top |
62-71 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 32 m |
Show
|
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Northern Kentucky at 7:00 ET.
The 18-16 UIC Flames and the 22-9 Northern Kentucky Norse meet in the Horizon League championship game from the Indiana Farmers Coliseum (Indianapolis) on Tuesday night. The Flames were just 10-8 in the regular season and entered the tourney as the No. 4 seed but after winning twice at home (93-59 over IUPUI on March 3 and 67-61 over Youngstown St on Mar 5), they took down No. 1 seed Wright St last night, 73-56 as a six-point underdog (note: Wright St made just 28.3% of its shots!). John Brannen led the Northern Kentucky Norse to three straight 20-plus winning seasons the previous three years and to the "Big Dance" in two of those three seasons. However, he left for the 'greener pastures' of Cincinnati after the conclusion of last season. Darrin Horn, who and excellent head coaching success at Western Kentucky but flopped at South Carolina, took over. Horn's team finished second in the regular season (13-5) and had a bye into the semifinals. The Norse punched their ticket to the title game with an 80-69 win over Green Bay last night.
UIC owns depth in the backcourt, as four players contribute. PG Ferguson (14.5-5.8-4.8), followed by Ottey (11.7 & 3.1), Boahen (10.4 & 4.1) and Ahale (5.4). The frontcourt trio consists of the 6-8 Diggins (9.2 & 4.9), the 6-10 Bridges (8.5 & 5.0) and the 6-8 Blount (6.1 & 4.0). Ferguson tied his career high with 25 points, as Illinois-Chicago advanced to its first Horizon League championship game since 2004.
6-6 senior forward Dantez Walton was lost to an arm injury in December but returned on Jan 31. He's the team's top scorer (16.5) and rebounder (7.2) and is joined in the starting lineup by guards Sharpe (15.1), Tate (13.9 & 5.4) and Faulkner (11.9 & 4.2), plus the 6-5 Adheke (3.7 & 4.9). Sharpe led the Norse with 20 points against Green Bay, while Walton scored 19 and grabbed 11 rebounds.
This is the Flames' FOURTH game in eight days and they are coming off upsetting the Horizon's top-seed. Meanwhile, Northern Kentucky enters this game having won 14 of its last 17 games. TWO of those losses came at the hands of Wright St and other??….It came against these very same Flames, who won at Northern Kentucky 73-43, as 9 1/2-point underdogs! In that game, the Norse shot just 22.0% from the floor, including an abysmal 4 of 32 on threes! That WON'T happen here! Lay the points.
Good luck...Larry
|
03-09-20 |
St. Mary's +4.5 v. BYU |
Top |
51-50 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 39 m |
Show
|
My 10* West Coast Crusher is on St Mary's at 11:30 ET.
Gonzaga ha dominated the WCC regular season ands the conference tourney for two decades but both fifteenth-ranked BYU and Saint Mary's are hoping for a chance to take down the Bulldogs in Tuesday title game (assumption being that Gonzaga, a two 'TD' favorite, beats San Francisco). The 25-7 Gaels and 24-7 Cougars have already played a couple nail-biters this season, with the Gaels winning 87-84 at home in OT on Jan 9 and the Cougars prevailing 81-79 at home on Feb 1, when T.J. Haws hit a three-pointer with 8.5 seconds left. The Cougars ended the regular season on a NINE-game winning streak (included a 91-78 home win over Gonzaga) and received a bye into the semifinals. St Mary's was the league's No. 3 seed and needed two OTs to put away Pepperdine 89-82 in Saturday's quarterfinals.
St Mary's is led by senior guard Ford (21.8) and 6-8 junior forward Fitts (16.7 & 7.0). Krebs (9.7 & 4.1) and PG Kuhse (5.8-3.3-3.8) surround Ford in the backcourt but Fitts only gets help up front from the 6-7 Fotu (6.3 & 3.5). The 6-10 Tass (6.6 & 3.6) was lost for the season with a knee injury back in late-December. BYU has the deeper team. led by 6-7 senior Childs (22.2 & 8.9), who gets help up front from Nixon and Lee (combined 14.5 PPG and 7.5 RPG). Toolson )(15.3-4.7-4.0), Haws (14.3 & 5.8 APG) and Barcello (9.5) give BYU an excellent guard trio.
BYU is a better team 'on paper,' but it's hard to ignore the two regular season meetings. BYU hasn't won a conference tourney title in 19 years, while St Mary's shocked Gonzaga in last year's WCC title game. I want NO part of St Mary's against Gonzaga but for tonight, I want the points as I see another tightly-contested game. Ford scored a career-high 42 points on Saturday while playing all 50 minutes. this tournament St Mary's is considered an NCAA Tournament at-large team by prognosticators no matter how it fares in the tournament, but Ford hasn't forgotten that the Gaels were 28-5 on Selection Sunday two years ago and got passed over by the NCAA selection committee. Again, take the points.
Good luck...Larry
|
03-09-20 |
Raptors v. Jazz -3.5 |
Top |
101-92 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 17 m |
Show
|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Ut Jazz at 9:05 ET.
The Toronto Raptors made a magical run to the NBA title last spring but when the team's main 'magician' (Kawhi) left for LA, the Raptors were expected to struggle. However, that has NOT been the case, despite the fact that the Raptors have seen all of their best players miss double digit games to injury. Toronto won 15 straight (Jan 15-Feb 10) before losing its final game before the break at Brooklyn. The Raptors returned from the break to win two straight but the dropped back-to-back home games to the Milwaukee Bucks and Charlotte Hornets, before embarking on a FIVE-game road trip. Toronto lost at Denver to open the trip but have won THREE in a row as it visits Salt Lake City on the final stop of that trip.
The Utah Jazz won 19 of 21 games (16-4-1 ATS) from Dec 11 through Jan 25 but then lost FIVE in a row. Utah rebounded to go 4-0 right before the All Star break but returned from the break to lose FOUR in a row. A Feb 28th home win over the Wizards snapped that four-game slide and the Jazz then went out and won all FOUR games of a road trip, at Cleveland, New York, Boston and Detroit. The 41-22 Jazz currently hold down the West's No. 4 seed but they are just TWO games back of the 2nd-seeded Clippers. Getting back to Toronto, the 45-18 Raptors are still 7 1/2 games back of the Bucks for the East's top-seed but have opened a three-game lead on the 3rd-seeded Celtics and are 4 1/2 games ahead of the 4th-seeded Heat.
The Raptors received all but SEVEN of their points from the team's starting-five on Sunday, as they won 118-113 at Sacramento. Norman Powell (16.8) scored 31 points, Kyle Lowry (19.7-4.8-7.7) added 30 and Pascal Siakam (23.6 & 7.5) finished with 23 in the win over the Kings to lead the solid play of the first unit, while FIVE reserves continued a downward trend with a combined 2-of-14 shooting. The team has became a bit deeper with the return of center Marc Gasol (7.6 & 6.3), who missed the previous 15 games with a hamstring injury, plus guard Fred VanVleet (17.6-3.8-6.6) is expected back from a shoulder issue this week. Powell has strted in place of VanVleet, Ibaka (15.8 7 8.2) for Gasol and the team's fifth starter is SF Anunoby (10.8 & 5.4)
Bojan Bogdanovic followed up a rough game Friday at Boston by scoring 32 points on 12-of-18 shooting at Detroit, where Utah lost all of an early 22-point lead before surviving the stretch run. Donovan Mitchell added 25 points and is averaging 25.1 since the All-Star. Mitchell (24.4-4.4-4.2), Bogdanocvic (20.5 & 4.2) and center Rudy Gobert, a double-double 'machine' at 15.2 & 13.9, are the 'heart' of the jazz. PG Conley (13.9 & 4.3 APG) has NOT been as good as advertised but unsung players like swingman Ingles (9.6-4.0-5.2) SF O'Neale (6.1 & 5.2) have both played in all 63 games. Then there is Jordan Clarkson, who is averaging 15.8 PPG in 33 games since being 'rescued' from Cleveland.
The Raptors won 130-110 in Toronto back on Dec 1 but Raptors arrive in Salt Lake City off a game in Sacramento last night and will be playing their FIFTH road contest in a nine-day span. The Raptors led the jazz 77-37 in that Dec 1 game in Toronto and I have a 'feeling' the Jazz will remember. I'm "all over' the home team.
Good luck...Larry
|
03-09-20 |
Oral Roberts v. North Dakota State -1 |
Top |
69-75 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 60 m |
Show
|
My 10* Summit League Tourney Game of the Year is on North Dakota St at 7:00 ET.
The Oral Roberts Golden Eagles and the North Dakota State Bison meet in a Summit League conference tournament semi-final matchup from the Denny Sanford Premier Center in Sioux Falls, SD. Oral Roberts was just 9-7 in league play but moved to 17-13 on the season after winning last night, 79-52 over Omaha. It sure helped that Omaha shot an abysmal 27.1% from the floor (including 4 of 19 on threes) but don't minimize that fact that Oral Roberts' four digit scorers played well. Senior PG Burns (15.3-3.9-4.2) and freshman guard Abmas (14.9) for an excellent guard duo, while a pair of 6-8 forwards form an impressive frontcourt. Nzwkwesi leads the team in scoring (16.9) and rebounding (10.1) and gets solid help from Obanor (11.8 & 16.7). Abmas led last night with 20 points (Burns had 17), while Nzwkwesi added 13 & 9 and Obanor 13 & 11.
The North Dakota State Bison tied South Dakota St fir first with a 13-3 record but won the tiebreaker, giving them the No. 1 seed. However, the Bison barely edged No. 8 seed Denver (just 3-13 in league play), 'escaping with a 71-69 win on Friday (note: South Dakota St lost Friday night to IPFW!). The Bison are led by a pair of senior guards, PG Sahid (18.3-3.2-3.0) and the 6-6 Ward, who is the team's second-best scorer (16.6) and its top rebounder (7.1). 6-10 junior Kreuser (10.3 & 5.9) is the team's best frontcourt play. Sahid had 22 points and Ward 20 in edging Denver but the big surprise was sophomore guard Griesel (6.5 &n 5.6), who had 10 points and 13 rebounds.
North Dakota St survived despite shooting only 38.6%, while Denver shot 50.0%. North Dakota St was a surprise winner of this tourney last year (entered the tourney 15-15, including 9-7 in league play but then won THREE games in three days!) but this year was a co-favorite with South Dakota St. The Jackrabbits are out and after a HUGE scare Saturday night vs Denver, I expect the Bison to be fully focused in this one. "The Price is Right" for a HUGE play on North Dakota St!
Good luck...Larry
|
03-09-20 |
Coastal Carolina v. Appalachian State -4 |
Top |
65-70 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 7 m |
Show
|
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Appalachian St at 7:00 ET.
It's second round Sun Belt conference tournament action as the Appalachian State Mountaineers (17-14 / 11-9 Sun Belt) host the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (16-16 / 8-12 Sun Belt from the Holmes Convocation Center in Boone, NC. Cliff Ellis owns more tha 850 career wins as a head coach but it's been awhile since he and his Chanticleers shocked CBB with back-to-back NCAA appearances in 2014 and 2015. Coastal Carolina entered this season off 14-18 and 17-17 years and as noted above, are just 16-16 entering play tonight. Over in Boone, NC, the Appalachian State football program has made major 'waves' but the same can't be said for the basketball program. However, head coach Dustin Kerns (in his third season) has turned things around this season. His Mountaineers won just 15 games in his first year and entered this season off an 11-21 year in 2018-19. A 17-14 record may not seem like a big deal to some but the fans are looking forward to the school advancing in this tourney.
Appalachian State comes into the tournament as them No.6 seed, finishing with an 11-9 mark in conference play. The Mountaineers have a solid backcourt led by PG Forrest (17.3-3.4-2.9) plus Williams (12.8 & 4.2) and Delph (9.3 & 3.8). The 6-9 Johnson (11.0 & 7.7) is joined by the 6-7 Lewis (7.3 & 4.2) and the 6-9 Seacat (6.6 & 5.0). Coastal Carolina can match Appalachian St in the backcourt, as PG Jones (17.0-5.7-5.7) is joined by Brewton (14.5), Gumbs-Frater (11.2) and Green (8.54 & 5.0). However, the lone frontcourt player of note is the 6-8 Burton (11.8 & 7.4).
Appalachian St hasn't played since March 3 plus will NO doubt remember losing 84-77 at home to Coastal Carolina on Feb 29, when the Chanticleers shot 57.1% from the floor. The Chanticleers are looking for another upset win, after eking out a 63-62 victory at UT-Arlington in their first round matchup on Saturday. However, this marks the team's FOURTH straight road game (began with that Feb 29 win at App St) and I believe that's asking "too much" of a 16-16 team. The well-rested Mountaineers get the win and COVER!
Good luck...Larry
|
03-09-20 |
Illinois-Chicago v. Wright State -6 |
|
73-56 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 51 m |
Show
|
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Wright St at 7:00 ET.
The UIC Flames and the Wright State Raiders meet in Horizon League tourney action from Indiana Farmers Coliseum at Indianapolis on Monday. The Flames were just 10-8 in the regular season and entered the tourney as the No. 4 seed. They've won twice so far (both at home), 93-59 over IUPUI on March 3 and 67-61 over Youngstown St on Mar 5. The now 17-16 (overall) Flames square off against the Horizon's No. 1 seed, the Wright St Raiders (25-6 / 15-3 in Horizon), who haven't played since winning 64-62 at Northern Kentucky on Feb 28.
UIC owns depth in the backcourt, as four players contribute. PG Ferguson (14.1-5.9-4.9), followed by Otley (11.6), Boahen (10.4 & 4.0) and Ahale (5.6). the frontcourt trio consists of the 6-8 Diggins (9.3 & 4.9), the 6-10 Bridges (8.4 & 5.0) and the 6-8 Blount (6.2 & 4.0). The Raiders own a STRONG starting-five, led by the 6-8 Love (16.3 & 975) and the 6-6 Wampler (15.6 & 4.6). A trio of guards join them in the starting lineup, Holden (12.1 & 6.5), Gentry (11.0) and Hall (7.8). The Raiders are one of the nation's highest scoring teams (81.4 PPG ranks 5th).
Head coach Scott Nagy had a long run of success at South Dakota St and has now won 20-plus games in each of his first four seasons at Wright St. He led the Raiders to an NCAA appearance in 2018 and anything less than that would be a HUGE disappointment. Wright St is 11-4 SU in road and neutral games this season and I don't see a Flames team which averages just 68.3 PPG, 'hanging' with the Raiders, who average 81.4 on this neutral court. Lay the points.
Good luck...Larry
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03-08-20 |
Iowa v. Illinois -3.5 |
Top |
76-78 |
Loss |
-108 |
11 h 37 m |
Show
|
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Illinois at 4:00 ET.
No. 18 Iowa (20-10) and No. 23 Illinois (20-10) are both safely are safely in the NCAA Tourney field but each has motivation for this game. Illinois dropped to fourth place in the Big Ten Conference (12-7) with its Thursday home loss to the Buckeyes but a win would give the Illini a double bye in the Big Ten Tournament. Meanwhile, Iowa suffered its first home defeat since early November when it lost 77-68 to Purdue on Tuesday. However, if the Hawkeyes beat the Illini, they hold the tiebreaker for the No. 4 spot over Illinois, Ohio State and Penn State.
Iowa's 6-11 Luka Garza (23.7 & 9.9) has a chance to win national Player of the Year. Garza scored 26 points and grabbed 12 rebounds in the loss to Purdue to register his team-leading 15th double-double of the season (note: he's scored 20 or more points in 15 straight Big Ten games). Guard Joe Wieskamp (14.3 & 6.1) and freshman guard CJ Fredrick (10.5) are the team's other two double digit scorers. The 6-10 Ryan Kriener (7.9 & 4.2) starts up front with Garza, while Toussaint (6.2) and McCaffrey (6.1-4.0-3.9) give Iowa an excellent perimeter group.
The Illini are led PG Ayo Dosunmu (16.6-4.2-3.2). 6-9 freshman Cockburn (13.4 & 8.8) and guard Feliz (10.9 & 5.2) join him in double figures, while guards Griffin (9.1 & 4.6) and Frazier (9.1), just miss. The 6-9 Bezhanishvili (6.8 & 4.8) works alongside of Cockburn, up front. Dosunmu scored a game-high 21 points and dished out five assists, but the Fighting Illini couldn’t hold on to a seven-point halftime lead in the loss to Ohio State. Feliz added 11 points and 11 rebounds to register his third double-double of the season, However, Cockburn was limited to six points and three rebounds due to foul trouble.
The Hawkeyes defeated the Illini 72-65 back on Feb 2 at home, with Garza leading the way with 25 points and 10 rebounds. However, allowing 11 PPG more on the road than at home. Cockburn is surely capable of playing Garza even (he NEEDS to) but don't be surprised if it's Illinois' Ayo Dosunmu (he's averaging 20 points over his last five outings!) who plays the starring role in this one, especially come "crunch time." Iowa has beaten Illinois FIVE in a row but home court rules' in this one, as the Illini win convincingly, which means the team is off until Friday!
Good luck...Larry
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03-08-20 |
Lakers +2.5 v. Clippers |
Top |
112-103 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 3 m |
Show
|
My 10* Division Game of the Year (Pacific) is on the LA Lakers at 3:35 ET.
The LA Lakers are 48-13, 5 1/2 games better than the 43-19 LA Clippers. However, the Clippers are 2-0 against their Staples Center co-tenants, posted a 112-102 victory in the season opener on Oct 22 and a 111-106 win on Christmas Day. The Clippers have recorded an average margin of victory of 17.0 points in winning SIX in a row (longest active streak in the NBA) but the Lakers have won 10 of their last 11, after beating the NBA-best Milwaukee Bucks Friday night at Staples, 113-103.
The Lakers go as Davis and James go. A.D. (26.6 & 9.5) and LBJ (25.6-7.8-10.7) combined for 67 points in the win over the Bucks and on the season, only Kuzma (12.5 & 4.4) averages in double digits. The Clippers have their own "Dynamic Duo: in Kawhi (26.9-7.5-5.1) and Paul George (20.9-5.9-3.9). However, they also have two of the NBA's best bench players in guard Williams (18.8 & 5.8 APG) and PF Harrell (18.7 & 7.1). What's more, the Clippers recently added forward Marcus Morris at the trade deadline and PG Reggie Jackson on the buyout market. Morris has averaged 10.4 points in 10 games and Jackson 8.7 points and 3.6 assists in seven game.
The Clippers have the better all-around team but SO did Milwaukee on Friday. LBY and A.D. have carried the Lakers to the second-best record in the NBA and as noted, lead the Clippers by 5 1/2 games for the West's best record. Like on Friday, the Lakers find a way!
Good luck...Larry
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03-08-20 |
Valparaiso v. Bradley -3 |
Top |
66-80 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 25 m |
Show
|
My 10* MVC Champ Game is on Bradley at 2:05 ET.
Matt Lottich's first season at Valpo saw the Crusaders go 24-9 (2016-17) but the next two seasons saw them finish 15-17 and 15-18. The Crusaders ended their regular season just 16-15 (9-9 in the MVC) but have now won three games in three days in St Louis (Arch Madness) to reach the MVC championship game as the 7th-seed (10-team league). Brian Wardle took the Bradley head coaching job in 2015-16, after having no success at Green Bay. That first season was a disaster (5-27) but in his fourth season (last year), Wardle led the Braves to the NCAA Tournament by winning The Missouri Valley’s “Arch Madness” Tournament (first MVC title for Bradley since 1988), as the Braves overcame an 18-point deficit to beat Northern Iowa 57-54. The win led to Bradley's first NCAA Tourney appearance since 2006. Bradley finished this year 11-7 in MVC play (tied with Ind St for third), although the Braves were the 4th-seed. However, Bradley's back in the title game with wins over Southern Illinois and Drake.
The Crusaders are led by freshman PG Freeman-Liberty (18.9-5.9-3.3), who gets help from a trio of guards combining for just under 18 PPG. The 6-8 Ryan Fazekas, a graduate transfer from Marquette, was lost early on to an ankle injury but he returned in late January. He checks in as the team's only other double digit scoer at 10.8 PPG. However, like the backcourt, Valp has depth up front, as four others chip in between 6.4 and 9.4 PPG, with 6-7 freshman Clay being the top scorer (9.4) and rebounder (4.7) of that group. Freeman-Liberty scored 29 points with nine rebounds and five assists, as Valparaiso beat Missouri State 89-82 Saturday to advance to the championship game.
Bradley's a veteran team, led by returning guards Brown (14.3 & 4.6 APG) at the point and Kennell (12.5 & 4.4). LSU transfer Kingsby (7.4) starts with the aforementioned duo in the backcourt, with the 6-7 Childs (14.7 & 8.7) and the 6-11 Bar (6.4 & 7.) starting up front. The 6-6 Henry (9.3 & 5.9) is also a frontcourt contributor. Darrell Brown scored 25 points to lead FIVE players in double-figure scoring as No. 4 seed Bradley beat eighth-seeded Drake 76-66 on Saturday to advance to a second straight Missouri Valley Conference tournament championship.
FOUR wins in four days? I'm not convinced (even a little) that Valpo's up to that task. The No. 7 seed Crusaders beat 10th-seed Evansville Thursday by just THREE points (note: Purple Aces lost all 19 MVC games this season) and then upset No. 2 seed Loyola Chicago on Friday in OT. Saturday's win over Missouri St came over a team that like Valpo finished 9-9 in conference play and sees its season end with a 16-17 record. Playing off back-to-back outright wins as an underdog makes me believe the THIRD time WON'T be the charm for Valpo. For Bradley, it will be "deja vu all over again," as the Braves capture a SECOND-straight MVC Tourney title and make a SECOND-straight trip to the Big Dance.
Good luck...Larry
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03-08-20 |
Michigan v. Maryland -4 |
Top |
70-83 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 1 m |
Show
|
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Maryland at 1:00 ET.
John Beilein left Michigan to take the head coaching job with the Cleveland Cavaliers (that went well, didn't it?), after leading the Wolverines to NINE NCAA tourneys in his 12 years (twice lost in the national championship game). Taking over was former Fab Fiver Juwan Howard, who had to replace forward Ignas Brazdeikis (14.8 & 5.4) plus guards Jordan Poole (12.8) and Charles Matthews (12.2 & 5.0). Michigan opened the season unranked but began 7-0, after winning the Battle 4 Atlantis (Thanksgiving week). The Wolverines shocked then-No. 6 North Carolina (73-64) and now-No. 2 Gonzaga in the championship game. When "the dust had settled," Michigan wound up No. 4 in the AP poll on Dec 4. However, the Wolverines then went 4-9 over their next 13 games to fall to 11-8, including 2-6 in the Big Ten. Michigan to win SEVEN of eight but then dropped two in a row. The Wolverines ended that mini two-game skid with an 82-58 rout of Nebraska on Thursday to virtually punch their ticket to the NCAA Tournament.
Mark Turgeon's Maryland team was ranked 7th in the AP's preseason poll and the Terps opened 10-0. They were ranked No. 4 when they lost Dec 10 at Penn St, a defeat started a 3-4 run. However, Maryland then won NINE in a row from Jan 18-Feb 18. Heading into their final five games, the ninth-ranked Terrapins were in excellent position to claim the regular-season title outright, but they've stumbled toward the finish line. Maryland has lost to Ohio State, Michigan State and Rutgers, with its lone victory during that span coming in a one-point win over Minnesota.
The Wolverines scored 50 points in the second half of their win over Nebraska, capping off an emotional Senior Night in Ann Arbor, which saw PG Zavier Simpson (12.9-4.4-7.9) and 7-1 center Jon Teske (11.7 & 6.9) play their final home game. The return to health of the 6-7 Isaiah Livers has been huge for Michigan. He leads the team in scoring at 13.3 PPG, which give Michigan FIVE players in double digits. Guards Wagner (11.4 & 5.7) and Brooks (10.8) round out that group. With "all hands on deck," Michigan has regained its swagger.
Maryland lost the 6-10 Fernando and his double-double average (13.6 & 10.6) from last year's 23-11 NCAA team (lost in the 2nd round) but FOUR starters returned. PG Anthony Cowan Jr. (16.2 & 4.6 APG) is the team's leading scorer, closely followed by the 6-10 Jalen Smith (15.4 & 10.5). Guards Aaron Wiggins (10.2 & 4.1), Morsell (8.6 & 4.8) and Ayala (8.2) plus 6-8 freshman Donta Scott (6.0 & 3.8) round out Maryland's main contributors.
One can't ignore that Maryland enters its final regular-season game a bit shaken but the Terrapins can still claim at least a share of the Big Ten title with a victory over No. 25 Michigan on Sunday. PG Cowan and the 6-10 Smith are an outstanding 'one-two punch,' with Smith leading the Big Ten with 20 double-doubles (has double-doubles in 12 of his last 13). Michigan lost the previous week to both Wisconsin and Ohio St and I'm not sure a win over hapless Nebraska means much. This stat may surprise some (it did me), as Maryland has won a Big Ten-best 45 home games since the start of the 2017-18 season. A 46th home win here and the Terps earn a share of the Big Ten regular season title for the first time since joining the conference.
Good luck...Larry
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03-07-20 |
Stanford v. Oregon -7.5 |
Top |
67-80 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 47 m |
Show
|
My 9* West Coast Crusher is on Oregon at 11:00 ET.
No. 13 Oregon (20-7 / 12-5 Pac 12) can finish with no worse than a share of the Pac-12 Conference title if it can beat Stanford (20-10 / 9-8 Pac 12) on Saturday in Eugene, in the regular-season finale for both teams. Oregon pulled into a tie atop the conference (with UCLA) on Thursday with its 90-56 blowout of visiting Cal. Meanwhile, Stanford battled back from a 10-point deficit in the second half to take a one-point lead with less than a minute remaining at Oregon St, only to lose 68-65.
The loss dropped Stanford behind Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and USC, all of which are tied at 10-7 heading into the final day of regular-season competition. The four-team logjam ahead of the Cardinal make it unlikely that Stanford could secure one of the four byes in the Pac-12 tournament. Stanford features the inside/outside duo of 6-10 da Silva (16.1 & 6.3) and PG Terry (15.2-4.6-3.2) plus the Cardinal lead the Pac-12 in scoring defense at 61.9 PPG.
Oregon is led by senior PG Payton Pritchard (20.2-4.3-5.6). He's a leading candidate for Pac-12 player of the year and the ONLY player in the nation averaging at least 20 points, four rebounds and five assists per game. The Chris Duarte, the team’s second leading scorer (12.9) and rebounder (5.6), is out indefinitely due to a broken finger. However, he's been replaced in the starting lineup by Mathis (8.3), who has averaged 13.7 points in his last three games. Guard Richardson (10.9) and 6-7 forward Juiston (8.0 & 6.20 have been solid contributors all season.
An Oregon win would guarantee the Ducks the tournament's top seed by virtue of having won its lone meeting with UCLA and considering the Ducks have won 21 consecutive home games, including all 16 this season, I like Oregon's chances to do just that. However, the Ducks have to cover to 'ca$h' but I like their chances to do that as well. Oregon's romp over Cal was its widest margin of victory in a Pac-12 game this season and the Ducks will well-remember losing 70-60 at Stanford back on Feb 1. The Cardinal opened Pac 12 play 4-0 but are just 5-8, since. Lay the points.
Good luck...Larry
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03-07-20 |
Ole Miss v. Mississippi State -6 |
Top |
44-69 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 26 m |
Show
|
My 10* CBB Rivalry Game of the Year is on Mississippi St at 6:30 ET.
Ole Miss (15-15 / 6-11 SEC) visits Starkville for the regular season finale for both the Rebels and their longtime Rivals, the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Ole Miss will be very lucky to play in any of the this season's postseason tourneys and while 19-11 Mississippi St (10-7 SEC) will surely continue to play after the SEC tourney, the Bulldogs will likely need to make some 'noise' in the conference tourney to have any chance of earning an at-large bid to the Big Dance.
Kermit Davis made quite any name for himself at Middle Tenn St and took Ole Miss to last year's NCAA tourney (finished 20-13). However, he's no such success this season. However, the Rebels have won their last two. Ole Miss owns a good backcourt, led by senior guard Breein Tyree (20.3) He is joined by Shuler (11.4-4.7-3.4) and Hinson (10.6 & 4.7). The 6-7 Buffen (10.7 & 6.1) and the 6-10 Sy (9. 1& 5.5) give the Rebels a decent frontcourt duo.
Ben Howland knows more than just a little about coaching and his Miss St team has put together back-to-back seasons of 25 and 23 wins in the tough SEC. This year's team will sure misses Qiunndary Witherspoon (18.5 PPG) but FOUR starters returned plus he added freshman guards Stewart and Molinar. The 6-10 Perry (17.2 & 9.9) leads in scoring and rebounding plus the Bulldogs are 'loaded' on the perimeter. Carter (14.1) leads the way, joined by vets Weatherspoon (11.7-3.6-4.0) & Woodard (11.4 & 6.7) plus freshman Stewart (8.6) and Molinar (6.0).
Miss St had won FOUR of five but saw a big opportunity for a win go by the board with an 83-71 loss at South Carolina on Tuesday (Gamecocks are another bubble team). However, the Bulldogs still have a chance to gain one of the top-four seeds and a double bye in the SEC tourney if they get some help elsewhere and they defeat the Rebels. Miss St can only control this game and a dominating win over its bitter rival (Ole Miss is 1-9 SU in true road games) is EXACTLY what I expect from the Bulldogs.
Good luck...Larry
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03-07-20 |
Wisconsin v. Indiana -2 |
Top |
60-56 |
Loss |
-109 |
6 h 44 m |
Show
|
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Indiana at 12:00 ET.
Wisconsin has been to the "Big Dance" in 20 of the last 21 seasons and as the 24th-ranked Badgers visit Indiana for tehri regular season finale, they are the hottest team in the Big Ten. Wisconsin has won SEVEN in a row (20-10 / 13-6 Big Ten) and claim at least a share of the Big Ten championship for the first time since 2015 with a win Saturday over the 19-11 (9-10 Big Ten) Hoosiers. Archie Miller began his third season as Indiana's head coach in 2019-20 and KNEW he had better improve on the 16 and 19-win seasons the Hoosiers delivered in his first two seasons at Bloomington. Indiana was 10-1 in non-conference play but it's been 'tough sledding' in Big Ten. The schools met Dec 7 in Madison and Wisconsin came away with an 84-64 victory over Indiana
The Badgers lost the 6-10 Happ (17.3 & 10.1) and a solid guard in Iverson (6.9 & 4.5) from last season's 23-win NCAA team but the Badgers returned a solid core. The 6-11 Reuvers (12.9 & 4.4) may not be Happ but he's a quality man. Wisconsin owns a 'DEEP' backcourt, even though King left the team (he was averaging 10.0 PPG but his last game was Jan 24 and he's headed to Nebraska?). In fact, the Badgers are 10-2 without him. Trice (10.0-4.0-4.2), Davison (9.8 & 4.4) and Pritzl (8.2) are a quality trio on the perimeter. The 6-10 Micah Potter, an Ohio St transfer who became eligible in December, has averaged 9.9 & 6.0 since joining the team (he's played 19 games) and along with the 6-8 Ford (8.5 & 4.4), support Reuvers up front.
Indiana lost two NBA players from last year's team, guard Langford (16.5 & 5.4) and the 6-7 Morgan (15.5 & 8.2), but highly-touted 6-9 freshman Jackson-Davis (13.9 & 8.1) has been as good as advertised. He's joined up front by returning 6-7 forward Smith (10.5 & 5.3) and 6-11 Butler graduate transfer Brunk (7.0 & 5.3). The backcourt has depth in Green (10.6), Durham (9.7) and Phinisee (7.3).
The Badgers find themselves in position to secure the top seed in the Big Ten Tournament based on tiebreakers with Maryland and Michigan State if they can win here. However, while the Badgers have lost only once since Feb 1, SIX of their eight wins since have come at home. Indiana comes into this contest having snapped a two-game losing streak with a 72-67 home win over Minnesota on Wednesday night, as all five starters scored in double figures in the win, led by freshman forward Trayce Jackson-Davis, who had 18 points and 9 rebounds, despite playing through a foot sprain. Indiana is 15-3 at home this season and more notably, has gone 5-1 against ranked teams this season with the lone loss coming 77-76 to Maryland. The Hoosiers have beaten ranked teams Florida State, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State and Iowa at Assembly Hall. Wisconsin would love to win the Big Ten regular season title but the badgers have clinched a "double-bye" in the tourney, as the school gets set of its 21st NCAA appearance in the last 22 season. Meanwhile, Indiana is vying for a return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2016 and has played excellent defense lately, holding their last five opponents to 65.4 PPG. A win here could greatly help the school's at-large resume.
Good luck...Larry
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03-06-20 |
Santa Clara +3 v. Pepperdine |
Top |
73-84 |
Loss |
-109 |
13 h 49 m |
Show
|
My 10* WCC Tourney Game of the Year is on Santa Clara at 11:30 ET.
Herb Sendek has taken schools like Miami-Fl, NC State and Arizona St to the "Big Dance." He was fired on March 24, 2015 by Arizona State, after an 18–16 record, losing to USC in the Pac-12 Tournament and a trip to the NIT. Sendek accepted the head coaching job at Santa Clara on March 28, 2016, replacing recently fired coach, Kerry Keating. After seasons of 17, 11 and 16 wins, Sendek's Broncos earned their 20th win of the 2019-20 season last night, beating Portland 76-62. The Broncos will take on the 15-15 Pepperdine Waves in the second round of the WCC Tourney in Las Vegas (Orleans Arena). While Pepperdine was just 15-15, the Waves' 9-9 league mark gave them a first-round bye, as the Broncos went just 6-10 in MCC play during the regular season.
Wertz (12.0-3.5-4.0) and Eddy (8.9) are a solid backcourt duo plus Sendek has real depth and SIZE in his frontcourt. The group includes the 6-9 Vrankic (12.3 & 5.5), the 6-8 Mitchell (10.6 & 5.2), the 6-11 Caruso (9.7 & 4.40 and the 6-10 Bediako (6.6 & 5.3). Pepperdine PG Ross (19.8-4.4-7.2) will be the best player on the court and Chavez (10.1) is a solid backcourt partner. Up front, the Waves feature the Edwards brothers, 6-6 senior Kameron adds 16.5 & 7.1, while 6-8 sophomore Kessler adds 13.7 & 7.6.
Pepperdine has underachieved all season (7-7 in non-conference action / 8-8 in WCC play), yet beat Santa Clara both times during the regular season, 90-86 (OT) on the road and 91-77 at home. That 91-77 result at Pepperdine was the FIRST of SIX straight losses for Santa Clara (Broncos had been 18-6). However, back-to-back wins over Portland has Santa Clara back in the winning column and I believe the Broncos are headed to Saturday's quarterfinals, as "the THIRD time will be the charm" in this meeting with the Waves.
Good luck...Larry
|
03-06-20 |
Bucks v. Lakers +1 |
Top |
103-113 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 53 m |
Show
|
My 9* "Best vs the Best Showdown Play is on the LA Lakers at 10:35 ET.
Reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo (29.6-13.8-5.8) has led the Bucks to the NBA's best record (53-9) and he'll lead his team into tonight's game at Staples Center against the LBJ (25.4-7.8-10.7) and A.D. (26.6 & 9.5)-led LA Lakers. The Lakers own the West's best record at 47-13 and enter having won NINE of their last 10 games. The Bucks enter having won SEVEN of eight and won the first meeting between the two teams 111-104 back on Dec. 19 in Milwaukee.
Antetokounmpo recorded 34 points, 11 rebounds and seven assists in Milwaukee's 111-104 home victory over the Lakers on Dec 19 and the Bucks are expecting the Lakers to be in "revenge mode!" Milwaukee PG Eric Bledsoe told reporters, "We beat 'em pretty bad. They're gonna try to come out strong, so we just gotta match their intensity." Bledsoe (15.3-4.7-5.4) and SF Middleton (20.9-6.3-4.1) make up Milwaukee's "Core 3" but the Bucks have many more regular contributors than the Lakers.
Outside of LBJ and A.D, the only other Laker in double digits is reserve forward Kuzma (12.6). LBJ had 21 points, 12 rebounds and 11 assists in the first contest against Milwaukee, while Davis posted 36 points and 10 rebounds. However, LA's center duo of McGee (6.9 & 5.1) and Howard (7.8 & 7.6) combined for only six points and seven rebounds!
I will NOT argue against the fact that the Bucks are the NBA's most complete team but as noted above, the Lakers have won NINE of 10 and have ben been able to put the tragedy of Kobe's shocking death, behind them. This could be a preview of the NBA Finals and LA could surely use a confidence-building win. That's my bet!
Good luck...Larry
|
03-06-20 |
Missouri State v. Indiana State +2 |
Top |
78-51 |
Loss |
-109 |
11 h 48 m |
Show
|
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on Indiana St at 9:35 ET.
It's Arch Madness in the MVC, as the third-seeded Indiana State Sycamores (18-11 / 11-7) take on the sixth-seed Missouri State Bears (15-16 / 9-9) Friday night at the Enterprise Center in St Louis. Missouri State won a tiebreaker with Valparaiso, earning a first round bye into the quarterfinals (FYI...Valpo was able to edge winless Evansville on Thursday and will play on Friday, as well).
The Bears hired Dana Ford as their head coach in 2018, after he was an unimpressive 57-65 in four years at Tennessee St. Not sure the school should have been too surprised with last year's 16-16 and not much has changed this season, either. The Bears are led by guard Cook (14.6 & 4.6) but the loss of PG Dixon (7.2-4.0-3.6) to season-ending shoulder surgery (last played Jan 11), has left the team with a shortage of quality perimeter players. The frontcourt is rotating five players, chipping in between 5.3 and 13.6 PPG. The top performers are 6-8 forwards Prim (13.6 & 4.8) and Da Silva (9.8 & 7.0).
Greg Lansing is in his 10th season as Indiana St's head coach. He burst onto the national scene as a rookie head coach with the Sycamore basketball program in 2010-11, as he became just the second-ever Indiana State head coach to lead the team to the NCAA Tournament in his first season (The first was Bill Hodges and the 1979 NCAA Final 4 team led by Larry Bird). However, he's never matched that success since. The Sycamores went to the CBI in his second season and then back-to-back NITs but ISU entered the current season off FIVE straight sub-.500 seasons. That's changed with this year's 18-11 team. This year's team owns an excellent guard duo in Key (15.8 & 4.7) and Barnes (12.6-3.7-3.7) and I think that gives them an edge in this tournament setting.
I can't think of SINGLE reason why a 15-16 team would be favored (at a neutral site) over an 18-11 team. Let me note that ISU opened 0-4, so that means the Sycamores are 18-7 their last 25 games. ISU's last loss was at home to tonight's opponent on Feb 16 (note: ISU won at Mo St on Feb 1), with the Sycamores winning FOUR in a row to end the regular season, after that defeat. ISU's winning streak began with a home upset of Northern Iowa (MVC's No. 1 seed) and also included TWO road wins. Any 'FREE' points are a bonus.
Good luck...Larry
|
03-06-20 |
VCU v. Davidson -4 |
Top |
65-75 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 9 m |
Show
|
My 10* Game of the Week is on Davidson at 9:00 ET.
Mike Rhoads took over at VCU for Will Wade when he left for LSU and after the Rams won a disappointing 18 games in his first season, went 25-8 last season as VCU earned an NCAA bid for the NINTH time in the last 11 seasons. The Rams returned all four of their double-figure scorers from last season’s team, as the lone starter lost from the 2018-19 team was the 6-8 Mobley (no real loss). Bob McKillop is in his 31st season as Davidson's head coach and he's had quite a run (578-350 overall with nine NCAA teams entering the current season). His best-known team was the 2007-08 edition, when Steph Curry led the Wildcats into the Elite 8. Davidson came into this season off a 24-10 year, while returning all five starters. Both schools had high expectations but as they meet in the regular-season final for each, VCU is 18-12 (8-9 in A-10 play) and Davidson just 1`5-14 (9-8 in A-10).
Th 6-7 Santos-Silva (12.8 & 9.1) is VCU's top scorer and rebounder but starting guards Jenkins (10.7 & 4.2) and Evans (9.9) have each recently been sidelined. Jenkins because of a personal health matter(?) and Evans to an MCL knee sprain. Those losses partly explain the team's recent collapse, one in which VCU has gone 1-6 SU and ATS its last seven. VCU's lone double digit scorer now is Santos-Silva.
Davidson's season turned very early on, as the 6-6 Pritchett's knee injury saw him lost for the season before it started plus SG Frampton left for personal reasons after FIVE games. That's TWO of last year's five returning starters. PG Jon Axel Gudmundsson was the A-10s P-O-Y last season and is averaging 14.4-7.2-4.4. Fellow guard Grady led the team in scoring last season and has done so again this year, checking in at 17.1 & 4.2. The 6-10 Luka Drogkovic (10.3 & 4.9) is the third starter back from last season, while returning guard Collins (10.0 & 3.9) and a pair of freshman, round out Davidson's main contributors. The freshman are the 6-7 Lee (8.4 & 3.2) and guard Jones (5.7)
VCU's current slide began right after it won 73-62 at home over Davidson back on Feb 7. However, Jenkins and Evans played in that one (combining for 34 points) and NEITHER are available in this one. "Revenge" will be sweet for Davidson in this one, particularly for Gudmundsson, who scored just four points in the first meeting, making just ONE of eight FG. This marks Gudmundsson's final home game and I expect a big effort from him here, as the injury-riddled Rams go 'quietly.'
Good luck...Larry
|
03-06-20 |
Heat v. Pelicans -1.5 |
Top |
104-110 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 16 m |
Show
|
My 10* Game of the Week is on the NO Pelicans at 8:05 ET.
Zion Williamson has only played 17 games but he's already one of the league's marquee attractions, averaging 24.0 & 6.8 (is shooting 58.2% from the floor, including 41.7% on threes). However, the Pelicans are just 8-9 in Zion's 17 games, and welcome Miami to New Orleans on a three-game slide. The 26-26 Pelicans have fallen FIVE games back of the Wst's No. 8 seed (Memphis is 31-31), plus THREE teams are between the Pelicans and Grizzlies. The Miami Heat lost to Minnesota to open a five-game homestand but the Heat rebounded to win the next four games. The Heat are now 40-22 and own the No. 4 seed in the East, 2 1/2 games up on Philly and three up on Indiana last in the tightly bunched Eastern Conference playoff race (Miami is 2 1/2 games back of third-seeded Boston).
Miami's big offseason acquisition was swingman Jimmy Butler and he's delivered, posting a line of 20.3-6.8-6.7. However, the Heat would not be where they are without the emergence of the 6-9 Adebayo (16.1-10.5-5.0), as well as the surprising contributions of undrafted rookie guard Nunn (15.7) and 6-7 second-year player Robinson (13.0). Also, the late addition of SF Crowder (13.2 & 6.0 in 11 games) has proven to be an excellent move.
The Pelicans got a quality 'haul' from the Lakers in the A.D. trade in Ingram (24.6-6.2-4.3), Ball (12.7-6.2-7.0) and Hart (10.2 & 6.4). Williamson joins that trio plus Jrue Holiday (19.7-4.8-6.9) and a solid group of role players. However, the Pelicans have struggled defensively during their three-game slide, allowing 129.3 PPG (does include an OT loss to Dallas).
The Heat own one of the NBA's best home record (27-4) but it's NOT good news that they needed to drain a franchise-record 22 three-pointers to edge 27-35 Orlando just 116-113 on Wednesday. Miami opens a quick two-game road trip tonight in New Orleans, having lost SIX of its last seven road games (1-6 ATS, as well). The LONE win and cover in that span came at NBA-worst Golden St (14-49). Pelicans badly need to win here and Miami should play the perfect foil.
Good luck...Larry
|
03-05-20 |
76ers v. Kings -5 |
Top |
125-108 |
Loss |
-103 |
15 h 50 m |
Show
|
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the Sac Kings at 10:05 ET.
The Philadelphia 76ers own the best home record in the NBA at 28-2 but fell to 9-23 on the road with losses in the first two of their four-game trip, losing at Staples Center to the Clippers 136-130 on Sunday and to the Lakers 120-107 on Tuesday. Philly now takes a NINE-game road losing into Sacramento on Thursday to face a Kings team which has returned from the break to go 6-1 SU &ATS. The 76ers are losing touch with the top teams in the East but at 37-25, own the East's No. 6 seed, ( 1/2 games clear of the 7th-seeded Nets. As for the 27-34 Kings, they are in a virtual tie with the 28-35 Blazers, 3 1/2 games back of the West's No. 8 seed (Memphis). Lurking closely behind Sacramento are San Antonio and New Orleans.
Philadelphia is playing shorthanded on the trip with All-Stars Joel Embiid (23.3 & 11.8) and Ben Simmons (16.7-7.8-8.2) out with shoulder and back issues, respectively. What's more, SG Josh Richardson (13.9) sat out Tuesday with a concussion and is listed day-to-day. Sacramento is short two important big men in Holmes (13.1 & 8.5) and Bagley (14.2 & 7.5) but Sacramento in Tuesday's 133-126 win over Washington on Tuesday, SEVEN players scored in double figures, while the Kings shot 56.2 percent from the floor. PG De'Aaron Fox (20.4-4.0-6.7) and SG Buddy Hield (19.9-4.9-3.1) comprise a dominant backcourt, while SF Barnes (14.7 & 4.8), swingman Bogdanovich (14.4) and PF Bjelica (11.9 & 6.5) remain solid contributors. Let me also note that PF Harry Giles III (7.1 & 4.2) is averaging 14.5 points on 60 percent shooting over the last six games.
Philly is a current 'mess' away from home and comes into this game seriously, shorthanded (76ers are just 1-8 ATS during their nine-game road slide). The Kings squandered a 28-point lead before turning Washington away in a 133-126 final on Tuesday. Expect Sacramento to pull away for an easy win and cover in this one.
Good luck...Larry
|
03-05-20 |
Oakland v. Green Bay -4 |
Top |
63-78 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 1 m |
Show
|
My 10* Horizon League Tourney Game of the Year is on Wisconsin-Green Bay at 8:00 ET. The Horizon League tourney opened Tuesday and Oakland advanced with an 80-59 home win over Cleveland St. The now 14-18 Golden Grizzlies will travel to Green Bay to take on the 16-15 Phoenix, who earned the league's No. 3 seed by going 11-7 in league' play (Oakland was just 8-10). Oakland owns a excellent 'one-two punch' in guard Williams (19.8) and the 6-7 Hill-Mais (17.0 & 8.3). Williams, who didn't become eligible until mid-January, had 14 points in the win over Cleveland St, while Hill-Mais had a double-double (26 & 12). Oakland shot 49.1% at home, while Cleveland St made just 38.7%, including a woeful 2 of 11 on threes.
The Golden Grizzlies can't expect that kind of poor shooting here, as Green Bay is averaging 82.2 PPG (4-th best in the nation). Green Bay has excellent depth, as EIGHT players are seeing 15-plus minutes of "PT," led by PG McCloud (17.4-5.1-4.6) plus fellow guards Davis (15.8) and Hankerson (11.3). Green Bay was forced to play FIVE consecutive road games from Feb 6 through Feb 23, before ending the regular season with back-to-back home wins. The final stop on that five-game road trip was at Oakland, which 'escaped' with a 92-88 double-OT win over Green Bay. Some revenge and home cookin' gets Green Bay the win and cover, here!
Good luck...Larry
|
03-05-20 |
Illinois State v. Drake -2.5 |
Top |
65-75 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 60 m |
Show
|
My 10* MVC Tourney Game of the Year is on Drake at 7:00 ET. First Round play begins tonight in the MVC Tourney in St Louis. It's been dubbed "Arch Madness" but neither Illinois St (10-20 / 5-13) nor Drake (18-13 / 8-10) is expected to be around by the weekend. Dan Muller served for 12 years as an assistant coach at Vanderbilt University under head coach Kevin Stallings, whom he played for at Illinois State from in the late-90s. He was named head coach at his alma mater for the 2012-13 season and after SEVEN consecutive winning season (including a 28-7 record in 2016-17), his eight season will NOT end well (see above).
Darian DeVries played collegiately at Northern Iowa. He was named assistant coach at Creighton in 2001. He stayed with Creighton following the departure of Dana Altman and the hire of Greg McDermott but became a head coach for the first time when he accepted the job at former conference rival Drake in March 2018. The Bulldogs went 24-10 last season, including 12-6 in MVC play (T-1st) but they have not built on that success this season (again, see record above)
However, Drake is a MUCH better team than Illinois St and "at this price," is a STRONG play. SIX players have played in all 31 games (all have averaged 21-plus minutes), led by the 7-0 Robbins (13.8 & 6.9) and PG Penn (11.7-4.5-5.5), who was a Siena transfer who sat out last season. Guard Copeland (14.6) is the lone double digit scorer for the Redbirds, although FIVE more players chip in between 6.3 & 9.5 PPG. The best of that group is the team's lone frontcourt player of note, the 6-8 Fisher (9.5 & 5.9).
Drake was 2-10 on the road but did win TWO of three neutral-site contests. Meanwhile, not only was Illinois St 1-11 in true road games (lone win at Evansville which went 0-18 in the MVC) but the Redbirds lost all THREE neutral-site games as well. Drake owns the best big man on the floor (Robbins) plus a solid lead-guard in Penn. Drake may not survive a Friday meeting with the No. 2 seed (Loyola-Chi) but a victory gets them to 19 wins, with a chance for back-to-back 20-win seasons for the first time since winning 26, 21 and 22 games from 1969-71 (only 20-win season since 1970-71 was a 28-win season in 2007-08). Bulldogs are the play!
Good luck...Larry
|
03-04-20 |
Dayton v. Rhode Island +4.5 |
Top |
84-57 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 43 m |
Show
|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Rhode Island at 9:00 ET.
Anthony Grant had success at both VCU and Alabama, before taking Dayton job for the 2017-18 season (he had a successful four-year playing career as a Flyer). Grant's first two seasons saw the Flyers go a modest 35-29 but his current Dayton team is ranked No. 3 in the latest AP poll, the school's highest ranking since being No. 2 in the 1955-56 season. Dayton is 27-2, with its two losses coming in OT to Kansas (current No. 1) and Colorado. The Flyers have already clinched the Atlantic 10 Conference regular-season title (16-0) and will put their 18-game winning streak on the line tonight when they visit Rhode Island on Wednesday.
Rhode Island head coach David Cox went 18-15 in his 'rookie year' at Rhode Island last season but had all FIVE starters back to open the current season. The Rams are 20-8 and at 12-4 in A-10 play, sit just ONE game back of second-place Richmond in the league standings. The Rams need one win in their last two games to earn a double-bye in the Atlantic 10 Tournament.
Dayton ranks FIRST in the nation by shooting 52.6% from the floor plus allows 65.2 PPG (pretty good when one is scoring 80.0 PPG). Leading the way is 6-9 All-America candidate Obi Toppin (also a P-O-Y candidate), who is a certain NBA first-round pick if he decides to forgo his final two seasons. Toppin leads the team in scoring (19.7) and rebounding (7.8), while a trio of guards join him in double digits. That group includes PG Jalen Crutcher (14.8 & 4.9 APG), Trey Landers (10.7 & 6.5) and Ibi Watson (10.2). Toppin is joined up front by 6-7 senior Mikesell, who adds 8.7 & 4.9.
PG Fatts Russell (19.5-3.4-4.6) leads the team in scoring plus is joined by two other guards in double digits, Dowtin (14.0-3.6-3.2) and Martin (13.0 & 7.0). 6-8 senior Cyril Langevine (10.2-10.4) is one of just a handful of players averaging a double-double for the entire season plus a trio of frontcourt players combine to chip in about 16 points and 10.5 rebounds per game.
The Rams lost 81-67 at Dayton back on Feb 11 but actually pretty much played Dayton even, after falling behind 17-0! That loss ended a 10-game Rhode Island winning streak and leaves the Rams just 2-3 their last five. Sunday's 72-62 loss to Saint Louis placed Rhode Island squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble, as the Rams are currently projected by ESPN to be one of the first four teams out of the tournament. That said, a victory over the Flyers could change all that! A win secures a double-bye into the upcoming A-10 tourney and could just secure an at-large NCAA bid. That would be a pretty 'sweet daily-double.' That's my bet.
Good luck...Larry
|
03-04-20 |
Virginia -2 v. Miami-FL |
Top |
46-44 |
Push |
0 |
11 h 21 m |
Show
|
My 9* Conference Crusher (ACC) is on UVA at 9:00 ET. Virginia won the school's first-ever national championship last season but gone from that team are its top-three scorers, guards Guy (15.4 & 4.5), Hunter (15.2 & 5.1) and Jerome (13.6 & 4.2). The Cavs opened 7-0 and were ranked 5th when they lost 69-40 at Purdue on Dec 4. UVA was 11-2 (3-0 ACC) and ranked 18th when it lost 60-53 at BC on Jan 4. That defeat was the start of UVA losing FOUR of five. However, the surging Cavs have now won SIX straight and NINE of 10 to reach 21.7. They are 13-5 and tied with Duke for third in the ACC. Virginia climbed back into AP top-25 at No. 22 on Monday and there is no longer ANY talk of missing the "Big Dance."
Jim Larranga famously led George Mason to the Final Four back in 2006 and has been at Miami since the 2011-12 season. He won 20-plus games in SIX of his first seven years at Miami (four NCAA teams) but the team was just 14-18 last year and now 14-12 this season, including 6-12 in ACC play. The Hurricanes are returning home from a disappointing 1-2 road swing, which included a miserable showing Saturday in a 63-57 loss at Georgia Tech (note: Miami scored a season-low 24 points in the first half).
The 6-9 Diakite and 5-9 PG Clark are the returning starters from last year's defending champs and Diatke leads in scoring at 13.6 PPG, while adding 6.6 RPG. Clark naturally leads the team in assists (6.0) and adds 10.7 PPG. The 6-8 Key joins him in the backcourt and he adds 10.2 PPG and a team-high 7.4 RPG. Woldetensae is fairly new to the starting lineup and while he's been 'quiet' the last two games (only a combined five points), he had 13.3 PPG his previous eight. 7-1 junior center Jay Huff (8.1 & 6.1) had one of the best games of his career on Saturday in a 52-50 home win over then-No. 7 Duke. He nearly had a triple-double, finishing with 15 points, 10 blocks and nine rebounds.
The Hurricanes are close to full strength with Chris Lykes, Kameron McGusty and Rodney Miller all back from injuries. Lykes (15.2) leads a solid guard trio that also includes Vasiljevic (13.2 & 4.2) and McGusty (13.0 & 4.1). However, freshman guard Isaiah Wong (7.6) had his streak of NINE straight games with double-digit scoring halted with a six-point effort against Georgia Tech. Rodney Miller Jr., Miami's 7-foot, 255-pound redshirt junior center, provides some scoring from the post as well as rebounding, averaging 7.6 points and 5.8 rebounds. He is joined up front by the 6-10 Waardenburg (6.2 & 5.9).
Jim Larranaga (now 70-years-old) is in danger of having his SECOND straight losing season, which would mark the first time that's happened to him since 1991-93, when he coached at Bowling Green. Miami will surely look to bounce-back from its 'ugly' effort at Ga Tech but UVA allows just 52.6 PPG (1st). What's more, the Cavs should not have trouble against a Miami D allowing 74.6 PPG, 301st in the nation. Cavs continue their climb up the ACC standings and in the AP poll.
Good lucky...Larry
|
03-04-20 |
LSU v. Arkansas -2.5 |
Top |
90-99 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 16 m |
Show
|
My 9* play is on Arkanasa at 7:00 ET.
LSU burst of the SEC gates at 8-0 but has since gone 3-5 (Tigers are 20-9 overall). LSU tied for second in the conference with No. 17 Auburn after a 64-50 victory over Texas A&M on Saturday and is on the verge of earning a double-bye in the SEC tourney. Mike Anderson never fulfilled his promise at Arkansas and was let go after eight seasons (just three NCAA bids). To the rescue has come Eric Mussleman, who led Nevada to the CBI title in his first season at Reno (2015-16) and then to three consecutive NCAA tourneys the last three years (won 28, 29 and 29 games!). Four starters returned for Arkansas but Mussleman added FIVE transfers in his first five months on the job. The Razorbacks were coming off a 18-16 season but enter this contest 18-11 but just 6-10 in SEC play.
All five of LSU's starters are in double digits, led by guard Skylar Mays (16.2 & 5.0). He's joined by Javonte Sn]mart (12.4-3.3-4.1) in the backcourt, while the 6-9 Watkins (13.6 & 7.1), the 6-6 Williams (13.4 & 6.7) and the 6-6 Days (11.7 & 7.2) make up the frontcourt. Arkansas is led by PG Jones (21.3-5.7-3.4), who is joined in double digits by 6-5 SF Joe (16.9 & 4.1), plus guards Whitt (13.8 & 4.7) and Sills (10.4 & 3.1). The best frontcourt player is the 6-6 Bailey (6.9 & 4.5)
LSU hasn't won back-to-back games since opening SEC play at 8-0 and after beating A&M the last time out, I wouldn't trust them here. The Razorbacks lost Joe for a few games but he's returned the last three to average 23.0 PPG. This would count as a valued Quad 1 win for Razorbacks, who could move to the "safe side" of the Big Dance 'cut-line' with a victory. That's my bet.
Good luck...Larry
|
03-04-20 |
Tulsa v. Temple -2.5 |
Top |
61-51 |
Loss |
-108 |
9 h 14 m |
Show
|
My 9* play is on Temple at 7:00 ET.
Tulsa head coach Frank Haith has had stops at Miami-Fl and Missouri before coming to Tulsa, where he led the Golden Hurricane to back-to-back 20-win seasons in his first two seasons at the school. However, Tulsa entered this season on a three-year postseason drought, so the team's 20-9 record so far, is "big news" in Tulsa. The Golden are 12-4 in AAC play, tied with No. 21 Houston for first place. Temple has a first-year head coach in Aaron McKie, but he's hardly "new." McKie played three years at Temple (he was the 1993 Atlantic 10 Conference Player of the Year as a junior) and then after a 15-year NBA career, returned to Temple as Dunphy's assistant from 2014-19. Temple was picked to finish seventh in the American Athletic Conference preseason poll and the Owls are currently 8th (6-10), with an overall record of 14-15.
The Golden Hurricane are led by the trio of guard Rachal (12.4 & 5.7) plus forwards Igbanu (13.2 & 5.1) and Horne (11.1 & 5.2) (11.1 & 5.1). Three more guards all play 25-plus minutes, combining for about 23 PPG. Temple is led by senior guard Quinton Rose (16.2-4.9-3.5) and junior guard Nate Pierre-Louis (11.5 & 8.4). The Owls have excellent depth in the backcourt with Moore (8.5) and Scott (7.4). Up front, it's the 6-8 Forrest (8.0 & 4.1), the 6-7 Perry (5.9 & 2.7) and the 6-7 Moorman (5.8 & 5.1).
Tulsa's been terrific at home (15-2) but can be had on the road. It's Senior Night for Temple, as Quinton Rose plays his last home game. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between these two schools and I'm taking the Owls.
Good luck...Larry
|
03-03-20 |
Purdue v. Iowa -5 |
Top |
77-68 |
Loss |
-106 |
15 h 53 m |
Show
|
My 10* Revenge Game of the Year is on Iowa at 9:00 ET. Full, detailed analysis by 9:00 ET Tuesday morning.
|
03-03-20 |
Maryland v. Rutgers -1 |
Top |
67-78 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 11 m |
Show
|
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Rutgers at 7:00 ET.
Rutgers head coach Steve Pikiell is in his fourth season at the school, having gone 44-54 in his first three. Coming off a 14-17 season a year ago, Rutgers was picked 12th (of 14 schools) in the Big Ten preseason polls but the Scarlet Knights got off to their best start since the 1996-97 season and earned an AP ranking for the first time since the end of the 1978-79 season back on Jan 20. However, the Scarlet Knights are just 4-7 since losing at Iowa on Jan 22, including their first home loss of the season 60-52 to Michigan on Feb 19. Rutgers ha s followed the loss to the Wolverines with back-to-back road losses at Wisconsin and Penn St and welcome Maryland to New Jersey 18-11 overall, including 9-9 in the Big Ten. Mark Turgeon's team was ranked 7th in the AP's preseason poll and the Terps opened 10-0. They were ranked No. 4 when they lost Dec 10 at Penn St, a defeat started a 3-4 run. However, Maryland then won NINE in a row from Jan 18-Feb 18. Maryland is 23-6 overall and despite TWO losses in its last three, is atop the Big Ten at 13-5 (ONE game up on three schools).
Maryland lost the 6-10 Fernando and his double-double average (13.6 & 10.6) from last year's 23-11 NCAA team (lost in the 2nd round) but FOUR starters returned. PG Anthony Cowan Jr. (16.1-3.6-4.7) is the team's leading scorer, closely followed by the 6-10 Jalen Smith (15.3 & 10.5). Guards Aaron Wiggins (10.4 & 5.1), Morsell (8.6 & 4.8) and Ayala (8.2) plus 6-8 freshman Donta Scott (6.2 & 3.1) round out Maryland's main contributors.
Pikiel took his team to Spain in August and Rutgers went 4-0, while jelling as a unit. The "breakout star" of that trip was guard Ron Harper, who averaged 17.0 PPG on 53 percent shooting. He's currently Rutgers' leading scorer, averaging 12.1 PPG and adds 5.7 RPG. PG Baker (10.6 & 3.5 APG) plus a trio of other of guards combine to add 22.4 PPG. Up front, the 6-6 Yeboah (9.8 & 4.7) and the 6-10 Johnson (7.9 & 8.0) are the biggest contributors.
Ninth-ranked Maryland can clinch at least a share of its first Big Ten regular-season title since joining the conference in 2014 when it visits Rutgers on Tuesday. The Terrapins missed a chance to seal the deal on Saturday, losing 78-66 at home to Michigan State. Martyland two previous games saw thenm lost at Ohio St and edge Minnesota 74-73, when Morsell hit a three-pointer with 1.9 seconds to go in the game. Maryland beat Rutgers just 56-51 back on Feb 4 in College Park, overcoming a five-point halftime deficit. Maryland's 56 points was the team's lowest output in its last 12 games and now must beat Rutgers at "The RAC" (Rutgers Athletic Center), where the Scarlet Knights are 17-1 (most home wins of any school, so far!). This will be Senior Night in Piscataway, N.J., and the RAC will be packed with fans to cheer the squad still enjoying its first winning season in 14 years, and hoping for its first NCAA Tournament bid in 29 seasons. Sounds like PERFECT STORM to me!
Good luck...Larry
|
03-03-20 |
Wake Forest v. North Carolina -7.5 |
Top |
83-93 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 3 m |
Show
|
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on North Carolina at 7:00 ET.
Wake Forest visits Chapel Hill Tuesday night. Danny Manning is now in his sixth year as Wake's head coach and he entered the current season with just ONE winning season in his first five (65-93, .411 overall). Meanwhile, Roy Williams' Tar Heels were ranked No. 9 in the AP's preseason poll. However, as the teams meet in h=this final week of regular season play, Wake is 13-15 (6-12 ACC) and UNC just 12-17 (5-13). It would be hard to "make this up!"
Wake Forest enters having won two straight, defeating Duke in double overtime 113-101 on Feb 25 and then beating Notre Dame 84-73 on Feb 29. Wake features THREE double digit scorers in veteran guards Childress (15.1 & 4.6 APG) and Brown (12.7 & 6.5) plus 7-0 junior center Sarr (13.6 & 8.8). Senior guard White (9.4), just misses. UNC freshman guard Cole Anthony began his college career with a bang by scoring 34 points in his debut. North Carolina opened the season 5-0 but has lost 17 of 24 since that start. Anthony went down with a knee injury in early December and just returned at the beginning of February. However, he's looked good and leads the etam with a line of 19.7-5.9-3.9. Fellow freshman, the 6-10 Bacot, has averaged 9.5 & 8.1, while junior forward Garrison Brooks has added 16.1 & 8.7. The team's fourth double digit scorer is senior guard Robinson (11.7). However, just as Anthony returned, he went down with an ankle injury. The good news is, he's been back for the last four games.
North Carolina has shown some life in its last two outings, following a seven-game losing streak by seven by knocking off North Carolina State on Tuesday and shooting 51.6 percent to win at Syracuse 92-79 on Saturday. The Tar Heels look to extend their winning streak to three games, for the first time since opening the season with five straight victories. It's been a "season to forget" for Roy Williams but he and his Tar Heels WON'T forget losing for the first time in six years to Wake Forest back on Feb 11. Wake won 74-57, as North Carolina went 1 of 16 on three-pointers. It was the worst display seen at Chapel Hill since the days Matt Doherty was on the bench almost two decades ago. Wake is just 1-9 SU on the road, so lay the points!
Good luck...Larry
|
03-02-20 |
Grizzlies v. Hawks -2 |
Top |
127-88 |
Loss |
-106 |
12 h 7 m |
Show
|
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Atl Hawks at 7:35 ET.
The Memphis Grizzlies won 15 of 19 before the All Star Game but returned from the break to go 0-4 SU & ATS in a four-game West Coast swing. The Grizzlies then lost at home to the Kings this past Friday, before snapped out of their post All-Star break 0-5 SU & ATS malaise in a big way on Saturday. Memphis had allowed 122.8 points in those five consecutive losses but held the best-in-the West Lakers to 40.9 percent shooting, in a 105-88 victory on Saturday. Memphis is back on the road tonight, as the 29-31 Grizzlies take of the 19043 Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks beat the Nets 141-118 on Friday and then the Blazers 129-117 on Saturday. It marked the first time in 12 tries this season that Atlanta won both ends of a back-to-back.
Memphis rookie Ja Morant (17.7-3.4-7.0) leads the team in scoring, followed by SF Jackson (16.9 & 4.7). SG Brooks adds 15.8 PPG, veteran center Valanciunas adds 14.6 & 10.9 and rookie SF Clarke adds 12.0 & 5.8. However, both Jackson and Clarke are currently sidelined until mid-March. Memphis has drafted well in the last three (Morant and Clarke in 2019, Jackson in 2018 and Brooks in 2017) but so has Atlanta. Young was the Hawks' top pick in 2018 and he's averaging 29.8-4.3-9.4. The 6-9 Collins was the team's first-round pick in 2017 and after missing all of November and most of December, he's now healthy and averaging 21.4 & 10.3. Hunter (12.6 & 4.3) and Reddish (10.0 & 3.7) were first-round picks in 2019. Hunter and Reddish are starting to live up to their potential. Reddish had a season-high 26 points on Friday against Brooklyn and Hunter scored 22 on Saturday against Portland.
Memphis is trying to hang onto the West's final playoff spot and enters Monday THREE games up over New Orleans, Sacramento and San Antonio, while Portland trails by four games. There are NO playoff aspirations in Atlanta but the Hawks enter this contest 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at State Farm Arena. The Hawks own home wins over playoff-bound teams the Clippers, 76ers, Heat and Mavs in this current run and I'm 'all over' them in this one.
Good luck...Larry
|
03-01-20 |
Minnesota v. Wisconsin -5.5 |
Top |
69-71 |
Loss |
-107 |
10 h 4 m |
Show
|
My 10* Weekend Wipeout in on Wisconsin at 6:30 ET.
Richard Pitino has had a roller-coaster run at Minnesota, capturing the NIT (25 wins) in his first season but then falling to 18 wins and just EIGHT wins the next two seasons. The last three seasons have seen 24 and 22-win NCAA teams sandwiched around a 15-win season. Pitino opened the current season without guards Coffey (16.6) and McBrayer (8.9) plus big man Murphy (14.4 & 11.0), who gave the Minnesota program a combined 11 seasons. Minnesota comes into this game off blowing a 17-point lead in a 74-73 loss to Maryland on Wednesday. The Golden Gophers imploded down the stretch and at 13-14 (7-10 Big Ten), even their NIT hopes are on 'life support.'
Meanwhile, Wisconsin has been to the "Big Dance" in 20 of the last 21 seasons and the Badgers will take a five-game winning streak into this contest, looking to earn a top-four finish in the Big Ten, while taking another step towards securing an NCAA Tournament bid. After Saturday's results, Maryland leads the Big Ten at 13-5, with 12-6 Michigan St in second at 12-6. Wisconsin and Illinois (Illini host Indiana today) are both 11-6, while Penn St and Iowa are 11-7. A reminder, a top-four Big Ten finish earns a double-bye in the conference tournament.
Minnesota's 6-10 sophomore center Daniel Oturu iss averaging 20.0 & 11.4, while fellow sophomore, PG Marcus Carr, is averaging 15.5-5.6-6.7. Guards Kalscheur (11.4) Willis (9.2) plus the 6-9 Demir (7.0 & 4.) round out Minnesota's starting-five (Gophers don't have much depth). Oturu scored 28 points on 10-of-13 shooting from the floor and pulled down 11 rebounds against Maryland to register his fifth double-double in his last six games. Marcus Carr added 19 points and seven assists to give him 182, which broke the single-season assist record.
The Badgers lost the 6-10 Happ (17.3 & 10.1) and a solid guard in Iverson (6.9 & 4.5) from last season's 23-win NCAA team but the Badgers have a solid returning core. The 6-11 Reuvers (13.3 & 4.6) may not be Happ but he's a quality man. Wisconsin owns a 'DEEP' backcourt, even though King (10.0) left the team (last game was Jan 24). Trice (10.3-4.0-4.1), Davison (9.5 & 4.2) and Pritzl (7.9 & 3.7) are a quality trio. The 6-10 Micah Potter, an Ohio St transfer who became eligible in December, has averaged 9.9 & 6.1 since joining the team and along with the 6-8 Ford (8.4 & 4.3), support Reuvers up front. Trice went 5-of-6 from the three-point line en route to a game-high 28 points and dished out four assists as the Badgers finished 11-of-23 from beyond the arc in winning 81-74 at Michigan at No. 19 Michigan on Thursday. Aleem Ford added 18 points and eight rebounds, while Micah Potter produced 18 points and seven rebounds.
Wisconsin's last loss was at Minnesota (Feb 5), when the Badfgers fell 70-52. Wisconsin shot 28.4% in that contest but have won FIVE in a row since, averaging 76.0 PPG. Wiscionsin's 81-74 win at Michigan saw the Badgers top the 80-point mark in back-to-back road games for the first time since 1993-94! The Kohl Center has been a "House of Horrors" for visiting teams for two decades and the current season is NO different, with the Badgers going 13-1 (lone loss was 71-70 to Illinois). Lay the points!
Good luck...Larry
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03-01-20 |
Raptors v. Nuggets -4 |
Top |
118-133 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 27 m |
Show
|
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Den Nuggets at 6:05 ET. The Toronto Raptors made a magical run to the NBA title last spring but when the team's main 'magician' (Kawhi) left for LA, the Raptors were expected to struggle. However, that has NOT been the case, despite the fact that the Raptors have seen all of their best players miss from 11 to 20 games due to injury (more later). Tronto won 15 straight from Jan 15 through Feb 10, before losing at Brooklyn right before the All Star break. The Raptors returned from the break to win two straight but head to Denver after dropping back-to-back home games to the Milwaukee Bucks and Charlotte Hornets. The 40-19 Nuggets have been near the top of the Western Conference all season but have lost three of their last five games, including Friday's 132-103 loss at the Los Angeles Clippers. Denver never led, and the game wasn't competitive in the second half, prompting head coach Michael Malone to call his team's play 'soft!'
Toronto is 17-3 over its last 20 but at 42-17, still trail the 51-8 Bucks by NINE games in the East. There will be no catching Milwaukee, as the Raptors embark on a five-game road trip through the Western Conference. However, staying at No. 2 in the East is a "big deal" (Toronto is just one game up on Boston). The Raptors are on their first losing streak in over two months and look to avoid their first three-game slide since early December. Toronto features SIX double digit scorers and all but Anunoby (10.3 & 5.4) has double digut games (he's missed just one). Siakam (23.7-7.5-3.4) has missed 11 games, Lowry (19.2-4.8-7.7) has missed 12, VanVleet (17.6-3.8-6.6) has missed 11, Ibaka (15.9 & 8.) has missed 12 and Powell (15.5) has missed 20. Toronto got one player back but lost two more on Friday. Norman Powell reentered the lineup for the first time since suffering a broken finger on Jan 31 but guard Fred VanVleet sat out to rest a sore shoulder and forward Serge Ibaka missed the game with knee soreness (both players are listed as day-to-day). Center Marc Gasol (7.8 & 6.5) hasn't played since Jan 30 because of his left hamstring injury.
Denver has had its fair share of nagging injuries but currently, all hands are on deck. However, one couldn't tell by its Friday effort. Center Jokic is again leading the etam in scoring (20.8), rebounding (10.0) and assists (6.7). PG Murray (18.7-3.9-4.8), SF Barton (14.8-6.4-3.8), PF Millsap (11.8 & 5.8) and SG Harris (10.1) round out the starting lineup. Grant (11.7 & 3.6), Porter (7.8 & 4.3) and Plumlee (7.3 & 5.5) are the frontcourt reserves, while PG Morris (8.5 & 3.6 APG) helps out Murray and Harris in the backcourt. Jokic (25.5 & 10.0) and Murray (23.6) have both been outstanding in February and when healthy (that's the current status), the Nuggets' depth matches ANY team in the league.
Friday's effort was abysmal (I had the Clippers as my Game of the Month) but off that 'ugly' performance, I see them bouncing back in a big way. Denver proved it could handle the defending champs last season, winning both meetings vs the Kawhi version of the Raptors, as the Nuggets finished with the NBA's best home record (34-7). Denver has a 23-7 SU mark at the Pepsi Center this season and has covered SEVEN of its last 10 at home. Lay the points.
Good luck...Larry
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03-01-20 |
Wichita State v. SMU -1 |
Top |
66-62 |
Loss |
-109 |
8 h 23 m |
Show
|
My 9* play is on SMU at 4:00 ET.
The Wichita State Shockers are traveling to the Moody Coliseum in Dallas, Texas to face off against the SMU Mustangs. The Shockers are 21-7 on the year and the Mustangs 19-8, with both teams checking in at 9-6 in conference play. Gregg Marshall led Winthrop to seven NCAA appearances in nine seasons and since taking over in Wichita, entered this season with a string of 10 consecutive seasons of 22 or more wins, including FOUR, 30-win seasons. In that 10-year span, the Shockers have been to seven NCAA tourneys (including a Final 4 appearance in 2013) and in three NITs (won title in 2011). Wichita St opened 15-1 (3-0 in AAC) and was ranked 16th in mid-January but is just 6-6 since that time (2-4 on the road). Tim Jankovich won 20-plus games in four of his five seasons at Illinois St, making four NIT appearances. He was announced as SMU's Associate Head Coach and coach-in-waiting in April of 2016 and then as head coach on July 8, 2016. He's had to bear the full force of NCAA sanctions due to Larry Brown's tenure but things are looking up this season. SMU breezed through a not-so-difficult non-conference schedule and few are complaining in Dallas with the Mustangs' 19-8 record.
Marshall's team goes eight-deep, led by sophomore guard Erik Stevenson (1 & 1.64.9). 6-10 senior center Echenique (11.4 & 7.0) comes in right behind Stevenson and just ahead of a quartet of guards, Burton (10.1-3.4-3.4), Etienne (9.9), Dennis (8.5 & 4.8) and Sherfeld (8.8). The 6-6 Wade (7.6 & 5.7), a transfer from UTEP. starts up front plus the 6-8 Udeze (4.4 & 2.9) provides depth.
Jankovich has two guards and two forwards making most of the contributions for his SMU team this season. PG Kendric Davis (a TCU transfer) owns a line of 15.0-4.4-6.9 and is joined in the backcourt by JC transfer Tyson Jolly (14.8 & 6.3). Then there are two 6-8 forwards, Isiaha Mike (13.8 & 6.3) and Feron Hunt (11.3 & 6.1). The 6-9 Chargois, who averaged 12.4 & 6.2 last season, continues to under-perform (6.8 & 3.7).
SMU has been sensational at Moody Coliseum, going 15-1 (lone loss back on Dec 7 to Georgetown?) and while the early-season Shockers might have won a game like this, the current version is NOT up to the task. Home team is the play.
Good luck...Larry
|
03-01-20 |
Indiana v. Illinois -5.5 |
Top |
66-67 |
Loss |
-106 |
6 h 25 m |
Show
|
My 9* play is on Illinois at 2:00 ET.
Indiana is 18-10 (8-9 Big Ten) and will visit 18-10 Illinois (11-6 Big Ten) on Sunday, as the Big Ten concludes its second-to-last week of the regular season. Archie Miller began his third season as Indiana's head coach in 2019-20 and KNEW he had better improve on the 16 and 19-win seasons the Hoosiers delivered in his first two seasons at Bloomington. Indiana lost two NBA players from last year's team, guard Langford (16.5 & 5.4) and the 6-7 Morgan (15.5 & 8.2), but this year's team got off to an 11-1 start. The Hoosiers moved to 15-4 with a home win over Michigan St on Jan 23 but they then lost FOUR in a row. Indiana split its next four games but comes into this one off a loss 57-49 at Purdue, with its NCAA at-large hopes taking a big hit.
Brad Underwood was a head coach at Stephen F Austin and Oklahoma St before being hired at Illinois back on March 18, 2017. He signed a six-year contract through 2023 worth $18 million but after two seasons in Champaign, his Fighting Illini were just 26-39 (11-27 in Big Ten play). However, as Underwood entered the current season, he returned FOUR starters from last season's team plus added 6-9 freshman center Kofi Cockburn. Illinois can reach 20 wins for the first time since the 2016-17 season when it hosts Indiana on Sunday. The Fighting Illini have won three straight games, including a 74-66 victory over Northwestern on Thursday. After Saturday's results, Illinois and Wisconsin are both 11-6, behind only Michigan St (12-6) and Maryland (13-5) in the tightly contested Big Ten.
Highly-touted 6-9 freshman Jackson-Davis (13.8 & 8.0) has been as good as advertised plus he's joined up front by returning 6-7 forward Smith (10.6 & 5.4) and 6-11 Butler graduate transfer Brunk (7.0 & 5.4). The backcourt has depth in Green (10.6), Durham (9.6) and Phinisee (7.0 & 3.1 APG). Devonte Green scored 11 points and grabbed four rebounds, but was the only Hoosier player to finish in double figures in the loss to Purdue. Trayce Jackson-Davis, who is the reigning Big Ten Freshman of the Week, was limited to six points on 2-of-7 shooting from the floor, after averaging 20 points and 13 rebounds over his previous two games.
The Illini are led PG Ayo Dosunmu (16.4-4.3-3.2)/ 6-9 freshman Cockburn (13.6 *& 9.1) and guard Feliz (10.8-4.9-3.0) join him in double figures, while guards Frazier (9.4) and Griffin (9.4 & 4.8), just miss. The 6-9 Bezhanishvili (8.4 & 4.3) works alongside of Cockburn, up front. Griffin had a career-high 24 points to help the Fighting Illini beat Northwestern for the fourth consecutive time, while Dosunmu added 21 points, six rebounds and four assists, to notch his third 20-point game in his last four outings. Kofi Cockburn produced 12 points and a game-high 14 rebounds to register his 12th double-double of the season.
Thursday's win guarantees Illinois will finish over .500 in Big Ten play for the first time since 2010 but Underwood's team wants more. First, would be securing a top-four finish in the Big Ten which gives them a double-bye in the conference tournament. This is the ONLY meeting between the two schools this season and while Illinois is 13-3 at home, Indiana is just 2-7 on the road, including 2-6 in the Big Ten, winning only at sad-sack Nebraska and sub-.500 Minnesota. Indiana is 5-14 on the road in Big Ten play since the start of the 2018-19 season and DOESN'T improve on that record here. Lay the points.
Good luck...Larry
|
03-01-20 |
Western Kentucky v. North Texas -6.5 |
Top |
72-78 |
Loss |
-109 |
6 h 24 m |
Show
|
My 9* play is on North Texas at 2:00 ET.
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are on the road for a game with the North Texas Mean Green. Both schools own 19 wins but the Hilltoppers trail the Mean Green in the race for the C-USA regular season title. Western Ky is 12-4, while North Texas is 13-3. Both schools have one more game remaining but since Western Ky won the first meeting (93-84 at home back on Jan 2), a win here would give the Hilltoppers the tiebreaker in case the team's finish with the same record.
Western Kentucky lost the 6-11 Bassey (15.3 & 9.2) back in December for the season and now relies on five guards plus 6-5 forward Williams (13.3 & 6.4), who plays bigger than his height. Hollingsworth.(16 & 4.3) is the team's leading scorer and is joined by four more guards in Savage (11.9 & 7.2), Justice (10.1), Anderson (9.9 & 4.0) and Rawls (7.9). The 6-5 Savage is the team's leading rebounder. North Texas owns a strong trio of guards, led by Gibson (14.9), PG Hamlet (14.2 & 4.7 APG) and Reese (8.9). SF Simms (9.0 & 5.1), the 6-8 Geu (7.6 & 5.6) and the 6-6 Bell (6.1 & 5.8) round out the main frontcourt contributors.
Here's the situation. Western Ky's Jan 2 home win over North Texas was its 10th straight in the series and dropped North Texas to 6-8 on the season (0-1 in C-USA). However, the Mean Green have gone 13-2 (all in league play) since that time and can now clinch the regular season title with a win. Despite the team's 10-game losing streak to Western Ky, you'll note that North Texas is a solid favorite in this game. I agree with the oddsmakers. North Texas says ENOUGH is ENOUGH and wins with room to spare!
Good luck...Larry
|
02-29-20 |
Rockets v. Celtics -1.5 |
Top |
111-110 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 3 m |
Show
|
My 10* LEGEND Play is on the Bos Celtics at 8:35 ET.
The Boston Celtics lost SIX of eight from Jan 6-18 but a 139-107 home rout of the Lakers on MLK Day jump-started a 14-3 run, a surge which has the 41-17 Celtics within a half-game of the Raptors for the East's No. 2 seed. The Celtics welcome the 38-20 Houston Rockets to the TD Garden Saturday night (ABC is on hand), looking to avenge one of three loses in their current 14-3 run. The Rockets beat the Celtics 116-105 at home on Feb 11, a victory that jump-started Houston's current five-game winning streak. The Rockets currently own the West's No. 4 seed but are within just 1 1/2 games of the Nuggets and Clippers, who are tied for the No. 2 seed (all three teams want that No. 2, thereby avoiding the Lakers until the conference finals.
When center Clint Capela got hurt (he's since been traded), head coach Mike D’Antoni went to a "small ball" lineup and it has worked well. James Harden (35.3-6.4-7.3) had 42 points, while Russell Westbrook (27.3-7.9-7.2) had 36 in that Feb 11 home win over Boston. These two former MVPs just a combined for 63 points on 24-of-40 shooting, 16 rebounds, 11 assists and five steals in a 140-112 drubbing of the Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday. The switch to full-time small ball has had the most impact on Westbrook, who is averaging 33.2 points on 53.6 percent shooting since Jan 9 and is up to 47 percent shooting on the season, the best mark of his career. Eric Gordon (15.2) has only played in two of the team's last eight games (knee) and did not play on Wednesday (questionable, at best, for this one).
Boston features a trio of 20-point scorers in Tatum (23.3 & 7.0), Walker (21.8-4.1-5.0) and Brown (20.4 & 6.4). Hayward (17.1-6.6-4.1) seems fully healthy plus guard Smart (12.6-3.7-4.9) has developed into a team-leader plus is a terrific perimeter defender. The odd center combo of Theis (9.0 & 6.5 in 23 minutes) and Kanter (8.6 & 8.0 in 19 minutes) is working! Boston returned from the break with a four-game road trip and went 3-1 (4-0 ATS) without All-Star PG Kemba Walker, who is questionable for Saturday with a knee injury. Marcus Smart averaged 13.3 points and 6.3 assists while starting in Walker's place and has recorded multiple steals in each of the last three contests. Then there is Jayson Tatum, who is developing into a superstar. He averaged 34.5 points on 56.6 percent shooting on the team's four-game western swing.
The Celtics are on a 14-3 run and take the court having won SEVEN straight at home. That Feb 11 loss is fairly recent and while Harden and Westbrook combined for 78 points in that one, Walker and Tatum combined to make just 10 of 32 shots, including a miserable 1-of-13 night from beyond the arc. Walker is out but as noted above, Boston has "missed a beat." At this price, I'm "all in" on the Celtics in this one!
Good luck...Larry
|
02-29-20 |
San Diego State v. Nevada +6 |
Top |
83-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 40 m |
Show
|
My 10* CBB Underdog of the Month is on Nevada at 8:00 ET.
San Diego State clinched the Mountain West regular-season championship back on Feb 11 with a win over New Mexico. The fifth-ranked Aztecs now will set their sights on posting the best record in the 21-year history of the conference when they travel to Reno on Saturday to face Nevada in their regular-season finale. The 2004-05 Utah Utes, led by national player of the year and eventual No. 1 overall NBA Draft pick Andrew Bogut, compiled the best mark in Mountain West history with a 13-1 record (.929). However, the 27-1 Aztecs can top that by finishing 17-1 (.944) in league play with a victory over the 19-10 Nevada Wolf Pack who enter the contest with a season-high six-game win streak and in a tie for second place in the MWC with Utah State at 12-5.
The Aztecs bounced back from their lone loss of the season (66-63 at home to UNLV last Saturday) with a 66-60 Senior Night win over Colorado State on Tuesday, using a late 13-0 run to rally from a seven-point second-half deficit. Guard Malachi Flynn led the way, scoring 10 of San Diego State's final 17 points and finishing with 17 points, six rebounds and four assists, while forward Matt Mitchell added 15 points. FIVE Aztec players have played in all 28 games, averaging at lead 26-plus minutes. PG Flynn (16.9-4.4-5.1) leads the team in scoring and assists and is joined in the starting lineup by fellow guards Schakel (10.1) and Feagin (8.5-3.1-3.0). Two 6-10 players, Wetzell (11.7 & 6.5) and Mensah (6.9 & 6.8), plus SF Mitchell (12.5 PPG & 4.9), are the frontcourt contributors. SDSU has been known for its defense since Fisher arrived in San Diego and current head coach Brian Dutcher (he was on Fisher's staff in Michigan and SDSU), preaches the same 'sermon.' The Aztecs are allowing 58.6 PPG, 3rd-best in the NCAA.
Eric Mussleman led Nevada to the CBI title in his first season (2015-16) and then to three straight NCAA appearances with win totals of 28, 29 and 29. However, Musselman left for Arkansas and was replaced by Steve Alford. The former Indiana star had coaching success at Missouri St and New Mexico but was generally viewed as a 'flop' at UCLA, where he was fired during last season. He took over a Nevada team that lost all FIVE starters but Alford's done a good job, as the Wolf Pack are headed for a 20-win season. Jalen Harris, a La Tech transfer, leads the way averaging 21.8-6.5-3.9. He's joined by returning guards Johnson (16.0), Drew (11.6-6.7-4.2) and Zouzoua (9.8). No frontcourt player averages more than 20 minutes per game but a "group of four" combine to add 18.9 PPG and 16.3 RPG. Two 6-10 big men, freshman Meeks (6.7 & 3.9) and senior Reyes (4.7 & 4.3), are the best of the bunch.
I'm sure SDSU would like to finish 17-1 in MWC play but I don;7't see that a much of a motivating factor. A perfect regular season is another thing but that 'dream' was smashed last Saturday by UNLV. As for Nevada, Alford has done quite a job at Reno and the Wolf Pack would 'LOVE' to win here, giving the Aztecs something to think about if the schools meet in the MWC tourney. Nevada is riding a 20-game conference homecourt winning streak (dating back to Feb 7, 2018) so I'm taking the points with this 'live' home underdog!
Good luck...Larry
|
02-29-20 |
Arizona State v. USC -3 |
Top |
61-71 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 39 m |
Show
|
My 9* play is on USC at 8:00 ET.
Bobby Hurley won two national titles as Duke's PG (1991 and 1992) but was always destined to get into the 'family business,' as his father is Bob Hurley, Sr, the legendary high school coach of St Anthony's (NJ). Hurley's first job was at Buffalo and in his second season, led the Bulls to an NCAA berth. He used that as springboard to take the Arizona St job in 2015-16. However, he opened with back-to-back losing seasons (15 wins each year). Hurley's 2017-18 squad snuck into the "Big Dance" as a First Four team and the Sun Devils were back 'dancing' again last season, losing in the Round of 64 to finish 23-11. ASU was just 10-7 (1-3 in the Pac 12) in mid-January but the Sun Devils came to visit the Pac-12's two LA schools (UCLA and USC) this weekend in sole possession of first place in the conference at 10-4. It's the first time the Sun Devils have led the league this late in a season since joining the conference in 1978-79. However, despite a 30-point performance from point guard Remy Martin (19.5) and 23 points from senior guard Rob Edwards (11.3), ASU lost 75-52 at UCLA on Thursday (the game featured eight ties and 12 lead changes).
Andy Enfield came to USC with unlimited fanfare. He led Florida Gold Coast to 26 wins and a Sweet 16 appearance back in the 2012-13 season and used that as a springboard to come to LA. He also brought along stock in a company he helped manage to more than $100 million in net worth plus a beautiful former model of a wife (the perfect fit for California). However, he's had three winning and three losing seasons at USC. Last year's team was just 16-17 but this year team (now 20-9 / 9-7 in the Pac 12) took another step closer toward securing an NCAA Tournament at-large berth and a coveted top-four finish in the congested Pac-12 on Thursday night when it grinded out a 57-48 victory over visiting Arizona. 6-9 freshman forward Onyeka Okongwu recorded his 11th double-double with 11 points and 10 rebounds to go with four blocks in the win (he's averaging team highs in points at 16.5 and rebounds at 8.9). Senior guard Jonah Mathews (12.9) and 6-11 senior Nick Rakocevic (10.6 & 8.7) became the 41st and 42nd players in school history to reach the 1,000-point mark, early this season.
When all the dust had settled from Thursday, Oregon and UCLA sat atop the Pac 12 at 11-5, ASU was next at 10-5, Colorado at 10-6, Arizona at 9-6 and USC at 8-7. ASU is trying to avoid a 'lost' weekend in LA but that's exactly what I see happening. USC lost just 66-64 at Tempe (Feb 8) and is 12-2 at home this season, including going 8-1 its last nine.
Good luck...Larry
|
02-29-20 |
Utah v. California +1.5 |
Top |
79-86 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 37 m |
Show
|
My 9* play is on California.
Mark Fox had a terrific run at Nevada, winning 20-plus games in each of his five seasons at Reno, making three NCAA tourneys. He used that as a 'springboard' to coach in the SEC at Georgia but his nine-year stay in Athens was a huge disappointment, with just four, 20-win seasons and only TWO appearances in the "Big Dance." This is his first season at Berkeley and while Cal may be just 12-16, that's quite an improvement after recording EIGHT victories in each of the last two seasons. Utah head coach Larry Krystkowiak is in his ninth season at Utah but after back-to-back NCAA teams in 2014-15 (26 wins) and 2015-16 (27 wins), the Utes began this season off three straight non-NCAA seasons. The Utes did go 9-3 in non-conference play but enter this game 15-13, including 6-10 in Pac 12 play.
Utah is led by 6-6 sophomore Timmy Allen (17.8 & 5.1) and he scored 17 points in Wednesday’s 70-62 loss at Stanford. Meanwhile. Cal's sophomore guard Matt Bradley (17.8) made five 3-pointers and matched his career high with 26 points in Thursday’s 76-62 win over No. 20 Colorado, as Cal ended a five-game losing streak against the Buffaloes. This has been a nice turnaround season for Cal and the Bears are 11-5 at Haas Pavilion this season, going 7-1 ATS at home in Pac 12 play. As for Utah, the Utes are 1-9 SU on the road this season, including 0-8 in Pac 12 play. Why should Utah win here?
Good luck...Larry
|
02-29-20 |
Penn State v. Iowa -4 |
Top |
68-77 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 17 m |
Show
|
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Iowa at 12 noon ET. Maryland (13-4) leads the Big Ten, with four schools tied for second at 10-6. 21-7 Penn St is one of those four teams and at 12 noon ET will play in Iowa City against the 19-9 Iowa Hawkeyes, who are ranked 18th in the latest AP poll but find themselves at just 10-7 in Big Ten play. The key being, the top-four teams in next month's Big Ten tournament receive an automatic bye to the quarterfinals, avoiding the extra game that comes with finishing fifth through 10th, or two extra games, finishing No. 11 or worse. These schools met back on Jan 4, with Penn St winning 89-86 in a game played NOT at the Nittany Lions' on-campus Bryce Jordan Center but rather at the Palestra in Philadelphia.
Penn St won the NIT back in 2018 (26 wins) but fell off badly last season, finishing 14-18 (7-13 in the Big Ten). However, the Nittany Lions returned FOUR starters and have impressed so far this season. The Nittany Lions are currently ranked but they entered the AP poll back on Dec 16 (at No. 23). That gave the school its first top-25 ranking since March of 1996. Sounds impressive, right? It's even more so when one realizes that Penn St's previous top-25 ranking (to 1996) came back in 1954! Penn State climbed to No. 9 in the poll last week (matching the school's best-ever ranking) but then lost two in a row. However, Penn State kept its Big Ten regular-season title hopes alive with a 65-64 victory over Rutgers on Wednesday. The Nittany Lions had led by as many as 18 points before escaping with a last-minute victory, and they aim to take another step towards securing a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament by sweeping the season series with the Hawkeyes. Izaiah Brockington (8.9) scored a game-high 16 points (off the bench). The 6-8 Lamar Stevens (17.6 & 6.8) is Penn State's best player but was limited to nine points to see his streak of games scoring in double figures end at 41 in a row. Worrisome these days for Penn St is guard Myreon Jones (14.1), who hasn't played since Feb 4, missing SIX games with an undisclosed illness.
The Hawkeyes are coming off a 78-70 setback at 24th-ranked Michigan State on Tuesday. The 6-11 Luka Garza scored a team-best 20 points and pulled down nine rebounds against Michigan State to record his 13th straight 20-point game in conference play. He's the Big Ten's best "big man," averaging 23.6 & 9.6 on the season. The 6-10 Ryan Kriener (7.9 & 4.) also had a big game, adding 18 points and seven rebounds, while Connor McCaffery (6.1-4.1-6.1). Good news seems to be coming Iowa's way, as freshman guard CJ Fredrick, who is averaging 10.7 points, is expected to return to the lineup after missing the last three games with a sprained ankle. He'll join Wieskamp (14.5 & 6.1) and Toussaint (6.5) and McCaffrey on the perimeter.
Iowa lost to Pent St in early January, despite Garza scoring 34 and Weiskamp adding 23. Expect a different outcome here, especially with Penn St missing Jones. The Hawkeyes are one of SIX teams with 10 or more Big Ten victories and getting a top-four seed in the Big Ten tourney is HUGE (see above). Carver-Hawkeye Arena is known for its hostile crowds and is ONE a tough venue. Iowa has won 12 consecutive home games since a loss to DePaul back on Nov 11 and takes a 13-1 record this season into this game, as well as a 31-5 SU the last two seasons at home. Expect the Hawkeyes to make it a "lucky" 13 straight home wins here, "with room to spare!"
Good luck...Larry
|
02-28-20 |
Nuggets v. Clippers -5.5 |
Top |
103-132 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 13 m |
Show
|
My 10* Game of the Month is on the LA Clippers at 10:35 ET.
The 45-12 Lakers continue to hold onto the West's No. 1 seed. Tonight in Staples Center, the Lakers' two-closest competitors, the 40-18 Denver Nuggets (5 1/2 back) will take on the LA Clippers (6 1/2 back). Injuries have hampered both teams throughout the season but that hasn't prevented them from being among the leaders in the Western Conference standings. The Nuggets and Clippers both expect to be at full strength for their Friday night showdown in Los Angeles. The Nuggets have played without Paul Millsap, Gary Harris, Jamal Murray, Will Barton and Michael Porter Jr. for time this season but all are expected to play on Friday. The Clippers have been without Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and Patrick Beverley for stretches this season as well, but that trio is "set to go," as are recently acquired Marcus Morris (from the NYK) and backup PG Reggie Jackson (from the Pistons).
Just like last season, center Nikola Jokic leads the team in scoring (20.8), rebounding (6.8) and assists (6.8). Joining him in a now-heathy starting lineup are PF Milsap (12.1 & 5.9) and SF Barton (14.8-6.4-3.8) up front, plus PG Murray (18.9-3.9-4.8) and SG Harris (10.2) in the backcourt. Depth is a team strength with frontcourt players Grant (11.5 & 3.6), Porter (7.9 & 4.4) and Plumlee (7.3 & 5.5) plus guard Morris (8.5 & 3.6 APG). Guard Patrick Beverley (8.5-5.7-3.9) is back from injury (he’s also back up to his full minutes allotment) plus fellow guard Shamet (10.4) has proven himself to be a solid NBA player. PF Morris has averaged 11.7 PPG in his six games with LA and scored 18 points, his most in six games since being acquired by the Clippers, in LA's last game. PG Reggie Jackson scored 12 points in 16 minutes in his third game with Los Angeles, as the team showed off its new depth.
These teams met back in Denver on Jan 12, with the Nuggets prevailing 114-104. However, George missed that game plus LA had yet to acquire Morris and Jackson. Gaining the No. 2 seed is huge, as that means avoiding the Lakers until the conference finals. Leonard and George 'drive the engine' but the Clippers now have the surrounding pieces to "state their case." Expect a 'BIG' statement, here!
Good luck...Larry
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02-28-20 |
Kings v. Grizzlies -3.5 |
Top |
104-101 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 40 m |
Show
|
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Mem Grizzlies at 8:05 ET.
The Memphis Grizzlies embarked on a four-game Western swing right after the All Star break and 'limp' home after going 0-4 SU and ATS. The now 28-30 Grizzlies have fallen 7 1/2 games back of Dallas (No. 7) but still lead the race for the No. 8 seed (final playoff spot), THREE games clear of Portland and New Orleans. Memphis hosts the Kings tonight and the Lakers on Saturday but then are back out on the road for SIX of its next eight games. The Kings opened Memphis four-game road trip by beating The Grizz 119-115 back on Feb 20 in Sacramento but saw a three-game winning streak end last night in a 112-108 loss at OKC. The Kings are 24-34, leaving them FOUR games back of the Grizzlies for the West's final playoff spot.
PG De'Aaron Fox (19.9-4.1-6.9) missed Thursday's game due to lower abdominal tightness, although he indicated postgame that he hopes to be in the lineup against the Grizzlies. Veteran Cory Joseph (6.4) started in Fox's place and handed out 11 assists, his second-best total this season. A healthy Fox and Hield (20.1-4.9-3.2) give Sacramento an impressive young backcourt duo, while Bogdanvich (14.4) can be counted on to provise consistent scoring on the perimeter. With Marvin Bagley III (14.2 & 7.5) and Richard Holmes (13.1 & 8.5) out of action, Harrison Barnes has helped take up the scoring slack for the Kings. He's proven to be a consistent scorer since leaving Golden St, first for Dallas and now for Sacramento (15.0 & 4.7). He had 32 points, including seven 3-pointers, in the win over the Grizzlies last week, then contributed 21 points to the win over Golden State on Tuesday and had another 21-point effort in Thursday's loss to Oklahoma City. Big men Alex Len (4.7 & 7.7), Harry Giles III (6.4 & 4.0) and Nemanja Bjelica (12.1 & 6.4) combined for 48 points and 28 rebounds while shooting a collective 18-of-27 from the floor in last night's loss.
Rookie PG Ja Morant (team's No. 1 pick in 2019 draft) is averaging 17.5 & 6.8 APG. Memphis chose the 6-11 Jarren Jackson in the 1st round of the 2018 draft and he averages 16.9 & 4.7. SG Dillon Brooks (15.3 PPG), while SF Clarke (also a 1st round pick from 2019, 21st overall) is averaging 12.0 & & 5.8. Veteran center Valanciunas (14.5 & 10.5) has really turned out to be a valuable addition. However, here's the rub. Jackson Jr. (knee) missed his second straight game and is still about 10 days away from being re-evaluated. Valuable reserve Brandon Clarke was lost to a strained right quad on the recent road trip and he is out indefinitely.
Both teams are 'hurting' to some extent (we are not sure Fox will play tonight) but this feels like a "must-win" for the Grizzlies, who will host the "Best in the West" Lakers, Saturday night (then play six of their next eight on the road). Memphis has been nearly unbeatable at the FedExForum since mid-December, going 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS (80%). I'm backing the home team.
Good luck...Larry
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02-28-20 |
Wright State v. Northern Kentucky -3 |
Top |
64-62 |
Loss |
-107 |
11 h 28 m |
Show
|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Northern Kentucky at 7:00 ET. Wright St and Northern Kentucky tied for first in the Horizon League last season but the Norse beat the Raiders in the Horizon title game to advance to the "Big Dance." The two schools meet tonight in the regular season finale for each, with 24-6 Wright St owning 14-3 league record, while 21-8 Northern Kentucky checks in at 13-4. A win by the home team would mean a first place tie again but the raiders own the tie-breaker, meaning they will enter the conference tourney as the No. 1 seed, giving then the home court edge if the team's meet in the title game, again.
Scott Nagy had a long run of success at South Dakota St and has now won 20-plus games in each of his first four seasons at Wright St. The Raiders own a STRONG starting-five, led by the 6-8 Love (16.1 & 9.5) and the 6-6 Wampler (15.9 & 4.3). A trio of guards join them in the starting lineup, Holden (12.3 & 6.6), Gentry (11.0) and Hall (7.8-3.7-3.0). The Raiders are one of the nation's highest scoring teams (82.0 PPG ranks 5th) and have gone 10-4 SU in road and neutral games this season.
John Brannen led the Northern Kentucky Norse to three straight 20-plus winning seasons the previous three years and to the "Big Dance" in two of those three seasons. However, he left for the 'greener pastures' of Cincinnati after the conclusion of last season. Darrin Horn, who and excellent head coaching success at Western Kentucky but flopped at South Carolina, took over. Horn had recently been an assistant for Shaka Smart at Texas and his Norse can tie for the regular season title with a win in this one. 6-7 senior swingman Dantez Walton was lost to an arm injury in December but returned on Jan 31. He's the team's top scorer (16.4) and rebounder (6.9) and is joined in the starting lineup by guards Sharpe (15.2), Tate (12.8-5.2-3.7) and Faulkner (12.2 & 4.1), plus the 6-5 Adheke (3.9 & 4.9).
Northern Kentucky was no match Wright St back on Jan 24, as the Raiders routed the Norse 95-63. Wright St shot 61% (including 12 of 22 on threes), as all five starters were in double digits. The Norse were not just awful on the defense end of that game but shot just 39.4% from the floor, including 4 of 22 on threes. However, Walton was NOT available for that contest and the Norse have won SEVEN of eight since that contest. Wright St has the No. 1 seed locked up (win or lose) and this is the team's THIRD straight road game, although the Raiders have had SIX days off since their last contest. Still, I see Northern Kentucky wanting this game VERY badly, as after losing by 30-plus points at Wright St in the first meeting, a home loss to the Raiders here would leave them with little confidence in a likely THIRD meeting this season in the conference title game, which would be played in the Nutter Center in Dayton, Wright St's homecourt. I'm on the Norse.
Good luck...Larry
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02-27-20 |
Arizona State v. UCLA -3.5 |
Top |
72-75 |
Loss |
-109 |
13 h 52 m |
Show
|
My 10* West Coast Crusher is on UCLA at 11:00 ET. Bobby Hurley won two national titles as Duke's PG (1991 and 1992) but was always destined to get into the 'family business,' as his father is Bob Hurley, Sr, the legendary high school coach of St Anthony's (NJ). Hurley's first job was at Buffalo and in his second season, led the Bulls to an NCAA berth. He used that as springboard to take the Arizona St job in 2015-16. However, he opened with back-to-back losing seasons (15 wins each year). Hurley's 2017-18 squad snuck into the "Big Dance" as a First Four team and the Sun Devils were back 'dancing' again last season, losing in the Round of 64 to finish 23-11. ASU was just 10-7 (1-3 in the Pac 12) in mid-January but the Sun Devils visit the Pac-12's two LA schools (UCLA and USC) this weekend in sole possession of first place in the conference at 10-4. It's the first time the Sun Devils have led the league this late in a season since joining the conference in 1978-79. Mick Cronin started his career by leading Murray St to two NCAA tourneys in his three seasons at the school and then took over at Cincinnati for Bob Huggins. He didn't get the Bearcats to the "Big Dance" until his FIFTH season (2010-11) but that began a run of NINE consecutive NCAA appearances. He took the UCLA job before the start of the current season but the Bruins got off to a slow Pac-12 start, winning only one of their first four contests. However, "The Mick Cronin lessons" have begun to click, as the Bruins have won NINE of their last 11 (all in Pac 12 play) and at 10-5, are in a three-way tie with No. 14 Oregon and No. 21 Colorado, just a half-game back of ASU. The Sun Devils are the hottest team in the conference with a SEVEN-game win streak but the Bruins aren't far behind with a FIVE-game streak. A key to the Sun Devils' recent surge has been the play of junior guard Alonzo Verge Jr. (14.6 & 3.5), who averaged 21.5 points in last weekend's home sweep of the Oregon schools, including a game-high 26 points in a 77-72 upset of No. 14 Oregon. He is averaging 20.7 points off the bench during the team's seven-game win streak. However, it's junior PG Remy Martin who is second in the Pac-12 in scoring (19.1) plus also leads the team in assists (4.0) and steals (1.6) while Verge, the frontrunner for conference Sixth Man of the Year, is second in scoring (14.6). Senior guard Rob Edwards (10.9) and 6-8 junior forward Romello White (10.5) also are averaging double figures, with White also grabbing a conference-best 9.2 RPG. However, NO other player aveages more than 5.0 PPG for the Sun Devils. UCLA was just 8-9 after a 74-59 home loss to Stanford on Jan 15 but has gone 9-2 since then to move within a half-game of first place, plus has also put themselves in a position to be considered " in the conversation" for a potential NCAA Tournament at-large berth. 6-9 swingman Chris Smith is the only UCLA player averaging double figures with 13.2 PPG (also 5.4 RPG) and he’s stepped things up of late, averaging 16.2 points during UCLA's FIVE-game winning streak. Unlike Arizona St, UCLA has the kind of depth that sees SEVEN more UCLA players are averaging 16 minutes or more. The 6-10 Jalen Hill tops that group at 9.2 PPG plus also owns a team-best 6.9 RPG. The 6-9 Cody Riley averages 8.5 & 4.5 plus a group of five guards combine to add 34.1 PPG. ASU's win streak has been dominated by "close wins," except the team's 18-point blowout of UCLA back on Feb 6 (ASU's other six wins have come by a combined 22 points!). However, it shouldn't go unmentioned that Jalen Hill missed that game with a sprained right knee. The Bruins know the school's past domination will NEVER be matched in the current 'culture' of college hoops but Cronin is a "winner" and this is the type of game he was brought in to win. Cronin joked when asked about Thursday night's first-place showdown saying, "It's great. Obviously, we all saw this coming five weeks ago. Everybody on the outside, the sky was falling and now it's all -- well, it is beautiful and sunny, we're in Westwood. If you're a recruit, that's how it is here -- everything's rosy." I'm backing UCLA. Good luck...Larry
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02-27-20 |
Youngstown State v. Green Bay -4 |
Top |
92-102 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 15 m |
Show
|
My 9* play is on Green Bay at 8:00 ET.
The Youngstown State Penguins and Green Bay Phoenix meet Thursday in Horizon League action. Both schools are 9-7 in conference play, with no chance of catching the Horizon's top-two schools, 14-3 Wright St and 13-4 Northern Kentucky. Green Bay has the greater depth, as EIGHT players are seeing 15-plus minutes of "PT," led by PG McCloud (17.3-4.9-4.5) plus fellow guards Davis (16.1) and Hankerson (10.9). Youngstown PG Quisenberry (16.2-3.7-4.1) doesn't gets the kind of help McCloud (his counterpart) gets at Green Bay on the perimeter but in the 6-6 Bohannon (10.9 & 8.8) and the 6-8 Akuchie (8.8 &n 6.1), Youngstown has an advantage up front.
Youngstown St has played just five road games in 2020, going 1-4 SU. In stark contrast, Green Bay returns home here, after FIVE consecutive road games! This is a tough spot for Youngstown, which just hosted the Horizon's top-two teams, upsetting Wright St and then losing by just TWO points to Northern Kentucky. Meanwhile, Green Bay has to 'LOVE' being back home and will be eager to avenge a 98-94 OT loss at Youngstown back on Jan 25. The last home game for Green Bay was back on Feb 2, when the Phoenix upset Wright St, 92-89. Lay the points with team averaging 81.5 PPG (5th-best in the nation).
Good luck...Larry
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02-27-20 |
Drexel v. NC-Wilmington |
|
65-76 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 7 m |
Show
|
My 8* play is on NC-Wilmington at 7:00 ET.
The Drexel Dragons and the UNC-Wilmington Seahawks meet in CAA college basketball action from the Trask Coliseum on Thursday night. Drexel is 13-16 (6-10 CAA) and Wilmington 9-20 (4-12 CAA). However, while Drexel owns a better record, the Dragons 'limp in' off FIVE straight losses, as well as EIGHT in their last nine games. The Seahawks hardly enter on a roll, although they did beat Charleston 68-55 in their last game.
Drexel is led by PG Wynter (16.1-3.9-5.3), the 6-8 Butler (13.5 & 11.6) and guard Walton (12.1 & 4.1), although no other player averages as much as 6.0 PPG. Wilmington owns some nice balance, as FIVE palmers score between 9.0 and 12.6 PPG. Guards Sims (12.6 & 5.5) and Gadsden (10.5) plus the 6-8 Linssen (10.0 & 4.6) lead the way. The bottom line is this. Wilmington may be just 7-7 at home but the Seahawks surely have enough to beat a Drexel team which is just 1-11 SU on the road this season (lone win at James Madison, which is 2-14 in the CAA).
Good luck...Larry
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02-27-20 |
Wisconsin v. Michigan -6.5 |
Top |
81-74 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 51 m |
Show
|
My 9* Big Ten Showdown is on Michigan at 7:00 ET.
17-10 Wisconsin (10-6 in the Big Ten) will be in Ann Arbor Thursday night to take on 18-9 Michigan (9-7 in the Big Ten). Wisconsin has been to the "Big Dance" in 20 of the last 21 seasons and the Badgers take a four-game winning streak into this contest looking to earn a top-four finish in the Big Ten, while taking another step towards securing an NCAA Tournament bid. The Wolverines have won five consecutive games, including a 71-63 road victory over Purdue on Sunday, to climb back into the top-25 (at No. 22) after a five-week absence. Like Wisconsin, Michigan hopes for a top-four finish in the Big Ten plus add to its at-large resume.
The Badgers lost the 6-10 Happ (17.3 & 10.1) and a solid guard in Iverson (6.9 & 4.5) from last season's 23-win NCAA team but the Badgers have a solid returning core. The 6-11 Reuvers (13.7 & 4.7) may not be Happ but he's a quality man. Wisconsin owns a 'DEEP' backcourt, even though King (10.0) left the team (last game was Jan 24). Trice (9.7-4.1-4.1), Davison (9.6 & 4.2) and Pritzl (8.1 & 3.7) are a quality trio. The 6-10 Micah Potter, an Ohio St transfer who became eligible in December, has averaged 9.5 & 6.0 since joining the team and along with the 6-8 Ford (8.1 & 4.1), support Reuvers up front. Potter matched a career high with four 3-pointers en route to a team-leading 18 points and nine rebounds off the bench in Sunday's 79-71 home win over Rutgers. Pritzl added 17 points on 7-of-10 shooting from the floor while Nate Reuvers scored eight of his 17 points from the free throw line. Davison scored 15 points against the Scarlet Knights to become the 43rd player in program history to reach 1,000 career points.
John Beilein left Michigan to take the head coaching job with the Cleveland Cavaliers (that went well, didn't it?), after leading the Wolverines to NINE NCAA tourneys in his 12 years (twice lost in the national championship game). Taking over was former Fab Fiver Juwan Howard, who had to replace forward Ignas Brazdeikis (14.8 & 5.4) plus guards Jordan Poole (12.8) and Charles Matthews (12.2 & 5.0). Michigan opened the season unranked but began 7-0, after winning the Battle 4 Atlantis (Thanksgiving week). The Wolverines shocked then-No. 6 North Carolina (73-64) and now-No. 2 Gonzaga in the championship game. When "the dust had settled," Michigan wound up No. 4 in the AP poll on Dec 4. However, the Wolverines then went 4-9 over their next 13 games to fall to 11-8, including 2-6 in the Big Ten. Michigan has rebounded though, to win SEVEN of eight, including FIVE straight. The return of the 6-7 Isaiah Livers has been huge, as he's averaged 15.5 PPG over the last four games and leads Michigan in scoring (13.6 PPG). He went 8-of-8 from the charity stripe in the final 90 seconds en route to 19 points, six rebounds and two blocked shots (note: Livers has made 31 straight free throws!). PG Zavier Simpson (12.3-4.4-8.0) ], 7-1 center Jon Teske (12.0 & 7.3) plus guards Brooks (11.0 & 3.7) and Wagner (10.9 & 5.5), round out a group of FIVE double digit scorers. Wagner continued his recent stellar play as he scored a career-high 22 points to go along with five rebounds, three assists and a pair of steals in the win over Purdue.
Michigan has regained its swagger and has held NINE straight opponents to 68 points or less. That's notable considering that Wisconsin averages a modest 66.9 PPG and before scoring 81 points in a Feb 15th win at Nebraska (Huskers are 2-14 in Big Ten play), the Badgers had averaged 57.8 PPG in their first seven Big Ten road games. Wisconsin hasn’t beaten the Wolverines in Ann Arbor since 2015 and WON'T get a win here, or even a cover!
Good luck...Larry
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02-27-20 |
Delaware +4 v. College of Charleston |
|
71-80 |
Loss |
-102 |
8 h 48 m |
Show
|
My 8* play is on Delaware at 6:00 ET.
The Delaware Blue Hens are 20-9 (10-6 in CAA), as they look to avenge a 75-63 home loss (back on Dec 30) to the College of Charleston Cougars (15-13 / 9-7 CAA) on Thursday night. The Blue Hens feature a trio of guards in double digits, led by Darling (21.5 & 3.9), who is surrounded by Allen (12.2) and PG Anderson (11.6-3.9-3.7). The frontcourt features big men like the 6-10 Painter (9.5 & 5.7) and the 6-11 Goss (6.4 & 4.4), although the 6-6 Mutts leads the group in scoring (11.9) and rebounding (8.4). Charleston's Riller (21.5-5.4-3.1) has a solid backcourt partner in Galloway (11.3) but the 6-7 McManus (8.4 & 4.4) and the 6-9 Miller (8.1 & 5.8) will have some trouble matching Delaware's trio in the frontcourt.
Charleston will NOT see the same team it did back on Dec 30, as Delaware enters this contest having won EIGHT of its last 10, while Charleston has lost FOUR in a row. Delaware's Martin Ingelsby is a head coach "on the rise," while the Blue Hens’ Nate Darling, is the league's 'hottest' scorer. He's averaging 28.0 points over his last eight games, failing to score 20 or more points just ONCE. Take the points,. No upset here!
Good luck...Larry
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02-26-20 |
Celtics v. Jazz -4.5 |
Top |
114-103 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 58 m |
Show
|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Ut Jazz at 10:35 ET.
The 40-17 Boston Celtics will likely never catch the Bucks in the East but the Celtics would 'LOVE' to earn the East's No. 2 seed and they enter this contest just 1 1/2 games back of the defending champion Raptors for that No. 2 spot. The Celtics conclude their post-All Star break four-game road trip with a visit to Salt Lake City tonight to face the 36-21 Utah Jazz. The Jazz have returned from the break to lose THREE straight games (all at home), coting themselves a spot in the West's top-four. The Jazz are currently the No. 5 seed and are just a half-game up on OKC (No. 6 seed) and 1 1/2 games up on Dallas (No. 7 seed).
The Celtics feature three-20-point scorers in Tatum (23.1 & 6.9), Walker (21.8-4.1-5.0) and Brown (20.4 & 6.4), with Haywood (the former Jazz player) close behind at 17.3-6.7-4.2. Marcus Smart (12.5-3.7-4.8) has become an important cog for this team, while Boston has made the center duo of the 6-8 Theis (8.8 & 6.5) and the 6-10 Kanter (8.6 & 8.0) work. Tatum takes the court averaging 36.0 PPG over his last five games, as he's matched his career high of 41 points and also had a 39-point outing during the stretch). However, All-Star PG Kemba Walker (knee) has missed the last three contests. Boston would love to get Walker back in the lineup for the first time on the trip in Utah, but head coach Brad Stevens noted Monday that his title-contending club would rather err on the side of caution with the veteran's sore knee.
The Jazz won 19 of 21 games (16-4-1 ATS) from Dec 11 through Jan 25 but then lost FIVE in a row. Monday's 131-111 loss to the struggling Phoenix Suns drew the following comment from SF Joe Ingles. "When you play the way we've been playing, there's a lot more bad than good right now," he said after the loss. "It's draining. ... It's just embarrassing." Hard to argue. All-Star SG Donovan Mitchell (24.3-4.3-4.3) scored 38 points against Phoenix but was lacking for answers after the latest subpar performance by his team. The 131 points allowed was the second-worst of the season by the Jazz, who compounded their issues by committing 20 turnovers. Utah, which began the season by holding its first five opponents under 100 points, has now allowed 12 of its last 13 foes to score in triple figures, including the last seven in a row.
Ok, so why the Jazz, here? We've seen this team go 19-2, 0-5, 4-0 and now 0-3 since Dec 11. Utah just has too much talent with Bogdanovich (20.6 & 4.2) and Gobert (15.5 & 14.3), not to mention Clarkson (16.3 PPG in 27 games with the Jazz), Conley (13.4 & 4.1 APG), Ingles (9.9-3.9-4.2) and O'Neale (6.0 & 5.2). Boston is playing its FOURTH game in six days and this one is "at altitude," off a game last night in Portland. Lay the points.
Good luck...Larry
|
02-26-20 |
Utah v. Stanford -7.5 |
Top |
62-70 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 47 m |
Show
|
My 9* West Coast Crusher is on Stanford at 10:00 ET.
The Utah Utes are 15-12 (6-9 Pac 12) and travel to Palo Alto Wednesday night to take on the 18-9 Stanford Cardinal (7-7 in Pac 12). Stanford looks to avenge an earlier loss to Utah (Utes won 64-56 in OT at Salt Lake City on Feb 6), after ending a four-game slide by sweeping the Washington schools last weekend. Utah head coach Larry Krystkowiak is in his ninth season at Utah but after back-to-back NCAA teams in 2014-15 (26 wins) and 2015-16 (27 wins), the Utes began this season off three straight non-NCAA seasons. The Utes did go 9-3 in non-conference play but as noted above, are just 6-9 in Pac 12 play.
The Utes snapped a three-game losing streak with last Sunday’s 79-65 win over USC behind strong outing from junior guard Alfonso Plummer (just 6.4 PPG on the season), who matched his career high with 18 points on five 3-pointers. Coach Larry Krystkowiak has also been pleased by the development of 6-8 freshman Mikael Jantunen (7.1 & 4.4), who is averaging 9.7 points, 4.3 rebounds and 2.3 assists in his last three games while shooting 75 percent from the floor. However, the Utes have been led all season by 6-6 sophomore Timmy Allen (17.4 & 7.3) and freshman PG Rylan Jones (10.2-3.0-4.7). The bad news is, Jones is listed as questionable after leaving the USC contest with a leg injury.
Many think that Stanford has a chance to make some 'noise' in the Pac 12 tourney and that's because of the potent duo of 6-9 forward Oscar da Silva (16.0 & 6.5) and freshman PG Tyrell Terry (15.0-4.6-3.2). Five other players chip in between 4.8 and 9.2 PPG, led by 6-7 freshman Jones (9.2. & 3.4) plus guards Davis (8.6 -3.1-3.4) and Wills (7.1 & 4.2). Da Silva suffered a head injury Feb 8 in a loss to Colorado and then missed one game before returning. However, he played 30-plus minutes last week when Stanford swept Washington and Washington St, scoring 35 points, while pulling down 19 rebounds. He's "good to go!"
Here's the bottom line. Utah won 79-74 at Nevada on Nov 15 but has lost all EIGHT road games since, going 1-7 ATS (that's an 88% "go-against"). The Utes needed OT to win at home over the Cardinal and I see little reason to think Stanford will have much trouble avenging that loss, here. Stanford has won NINE of the 12 meetings at Maples Pavilion since Utah joined the Pac 12 and checks in 12-4 SU (10-6 ATS) at home this season. Stanford leads the Pac-12 in scoring defense (allows 61.6 PPG, 13th-best in the nation), while the Utes are 0-7 on the Pac 12 road, being held under 60 points in FOUR of those seven losses. Lay the points.
Good luck...Larry
|
02-26-20 |
Indiana State v. Southern Illinois -2.5 |
Top |
77-68 |
Loss |
-109 |
10 h 33 m |
Show
|
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on Southern Illinois at 8:00 ET.
The Indiana State Sycamores and the Southern Illinois Salukis each own 16 wins. The Sycamores won the first meeting (68-56 at home back on Dec 30) but the Salukis enter this contest 10-6 in MVC play, one game better than Indiana St's 9-7 mark. Indiana St has a veteran guard duo in junior Tyreke Key, who leads the Sycamores in scoring at 16.0 PPG. Senior Jordan Barnes also averages in double digits (12.4 PPG) and adds a team-high 3.7 APG. A pair of freshman are the top frontcourt performers, the 6-9 Jake Laravia (9.2 & 5.9) and the 6-7 Christian Williams (7.4 & 4.1). Marcus Domask is a 6-6 freshman swingman and he is the leading scorer for Southern Illinois with an average of 14.3 PPG (also adds 5.6 RPG). Senior guard McGill (11.3 & 4.4) and freshman guard Jones (8.1) are the team's top-producing guards but SIU has depth on the perimeter, as four other guards are combining for 15.4 PPG. The 6-10 Barret Benson joins Domask and McGill in double digits at 10.7 PPG (adds 5.5 RPG).
Here's the bottom line. Indiana St is just 3-8 SU on the road, including 2-6 in MVC play (1-6-1 ATS). Meanwhile, Southern Ilinois is 12-2 SU at home, including a MONEY-MAKING 10-3 ATS. A little in-season "payback" works here, as SIU keeps itself in the MVC's top-four (coveted spot for Arch Madness) in this final week of the regular season. "The Price is Right" for an easy cover!
Good luck...Larry
|
02-25-20 |
Missouri State v. Valparaiso -2 |
Top |
74-89 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 30 m |
Show
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My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on Valparaiso at 8:00 ET. The 14-15 Missouri State Bears and the 15-14 Valparaiso Crusaders meet Tuesday in MVC action (both schools are 8-8) at Valpo's Athletics-Recreation Center. The Bears hired Dana Ford as their head coach in 2018, after he was an unimpressive 57-65 in four years at Tennessee St. Not sure the school should have been too surprised with last year's 16-16 and not much has changed this season, either. Matt Lottich's first season at Valpo saw the Crusaders go 24-9 (2016-17) but the next two seasons saw them finish 15-17 and 15-18. Not much has changed this season for the Crusaders, either.
The Bears are led by guard Cook (14.8 & 4.8) but the loss of PG Dixon (7.2-4.0-3.6) to season-ending shoulder surgery (last played Jan 11), has left the team with a shortage of quality perimeter players. The frontcourt is rotating five players, chipping in between 5.4 and 13.5 PPG. The top performers are 6-8 forwards Prim (13.5 & 4.8) and Da Silva (9.8 & 7.0). The Crusaders are led by freshman PG Freeman-Liberty (19.3-6.0-3.2), who gets help from a trio of guards combining for 17.5 PPG. The 6-8 Ryan Fazekas, a graduate transfer from Marquette, was lost in early January to an ankle injury but he returned in late January. He's played 38 and 37 minutes the last two games, scoring 31 points and is now the team's second-leading scorer at 11.8 PPG. Four other frontcourt players chip in between 5.9 and 9.4 PPG, led by McMillan (9.4 & 3.2) and Clay (8.7 & 4.4).
Missouri St is just 3-9 SU on the road. Two of those wins have come at Illinois St (4-12 in MVC play) and Evansville (0-16). Meanwhile, Valpo is 10-2 SU at home this season, posting a MONEY-MAKING 8-2-1 ATS mark. Valpo is a MUCH-improved team with Fazekas back on the court, giving us great value at this price.
Good luck...Larry
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02-25-20 |
Drake v. Loyola-Chicago -7 |
Top |
60-64 |
Loss |
-107 |
13 h 20 m |
Show
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My 10* Revenge Rout is on Loyola-Chi at 8:00 ET.
Drake hired Darian DeVries, a longtime assistant at Creighton, as its new head coach a year ago. It was DeVries' first head coaching job and he led the Bulldogs to a 24-10 season. Drake returned four starters from that team but while the Bulldogs are 18-11 overall, they are just 8-8 in MVC play. Porter Moser's Loyola-Chicago Ramblers made that great run to the Final 4 in 2018, finishing with 32 wins. Last year's team won a more modest 20 games, after losing in the NIT. The Ramblers welcome the Bulldogs to Chicago at 19-10 overall, including 11-5 in MVC play (just ONE game back of conference-leader Northern Iowa, which is 12-4).
Drake is led by 7-0 sophomore Liam Robbins, who tops the team in scoring (14.0) and rebounding (6.7). The rest of the major contributors are all guards, with a bevy of six perimeter players chipping in between 6.0 and 11.7 PPG. That group is led by PG Penn, who averages 11.7-4.6-5.7. Three starters returned for Loyola this season and are contributing as expected. 6-9 center Krutwig leads in scoring (15.2), rebounding (8.1) and assists (4.3). FOUR guards play 20-plus minutes, chipping in between 8.9 and 13.2 PPG, led by Hall (13.2 & 4.0) and Clemons (10.0). The 6-7 Uguak (5.4 & 3.4) helps Krutwig up front.
Drake is an excellent home team (14-1) but is just 2-9 on the road, including 1-7 on the MVC road (note: lone win came at Evansville, which is 0-16 in conference play). Loyola is 13-2 at home, losing only to Coppin St back on Nov 12 as a three 'TD' favorite (?) and by three points to Davidson on Dec 22. Loyola has NOT lost at home since, winning EIGHT in a row while going 6-2 ATS. The Ramblers are an excellent defensive team (allow 62.3 PPG to rank 21st in the nation) and while they score a modest 68.8 PPG, the team shoots an impressive 50.1% from the floor (4th-best in the nation). Loyola lost at Drake just 65-62 back on Jam 7 and gets some revenge here with a convincing win that keeps them "right there" with Northern Iowa. Lay the points!
Good luck...Larry
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02-24-20 |
Magic v. Nets -3 |
Top |
115-113 |
Loss |
-104 |
11 h 45 m |
Show
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My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the Brk Nets at 7:35 ET.
The 24-32 Orlando Magic own the 8th and final playoff seed in the East, 3 1/2 games clear of the Washington Wizards. The Magic travel to Brooklyn Monday night to take on the 26-29 Nets, who own the East's 7th-seed, 2 1/2 games ahead of Orlando. The Magic easily handled the Nets 101-89 back on Jan 6 in Orlando but this contest marks the first of THREE meetings down the stretch between these two teams (note: Nets trail the 6th-seeded Pacers by 6 1/2 games).
The Magic turned their season around last year by going 20-9 down the stretch to earn an Eastern Conference playoff spot for the first time in seven years. Do NOT expect a similar finish from the Magic this season but as just noted, the Magic are currently inside the playoff 'cut line' with 26 games remaining. However, Orlando is trending in the wrong direction. The Magic were 20-21 in mid-January but entered the break having lost 10 of 14 and in the team's lone game since returning from the break, lost 122-106 at home to Dallas. Center Nikola Vucevic leads the team in scoring (19.1) and rebounding (10.8). Along with forwards Gordon (14.1 & 7.4) and Isaac (12.0 & 6.9), the Magic featured a strong frontcourt. However, Isaac has been ruled out for the remainder of the season (has not played since Jan 1). Fournier (18.8) has been the leading scorer on the perimeter and SG Ross has added 13.5 PPG, despite not starting any of the 54 contests he has played. A pair of solid PGs are former overall No. 1 pick Fultz (11.9 & 5.0 APG) and Augustin (10.4 & 4.6).
While the Magic are struggling (4-11 their last 15), the Nets are playing well despite the fact that PG Kyrie Irving (27.4-5.2-6.4) has been ruled out for the remainder of the season to undergo shoulder surgery. Kyrie last played on Feb 1 but the Nets have gone 5-2, since. Dinwiddie (20.8-3.5-6.7), LeVert (15.6-3.7-3.6) and Temple (10.2) make up a strong backcourt trio, while SFs Harris (13.8 & 4.3) and Prince (12.4 & 6.21) are solid NBA players. Allen (10.9 & 9.6) and Jordan (8.3 & 9.9) form an underrated center combo, as both are nearly pulling down 10 RPG despite only playing around 26 minutes and 22 minutes, respectively. Then there is guard Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, who led EIGHT players in double figures with a season-high 21 points at Charlotte on Friday, as Brooklyn posted its third win of at least 22 points since Irving left the lineup for good earlier this month (Nets routed the Hornets, 115-86!).
The Magic are just 4-11 since getting within one game of .500 on Jan 15 and own one of the league's worst offenses (104.9 PPG ranks 29th on the season), while averaging 103.5 points in those last 15 games. This contest begins a stretch in which the Magic will play SEVEN of their next nine on the road (Orlando is just 9-18 SU on the road, so far), while the Nets have won EIGHT of 12 since losing five straight games from Jan 14-23 (note that five-game stretch came against elite teams like the Jazz, the 76ers twice, Bucks and Lakers!). Looking more closely at the team's recent 12-game stretch, we find that the Nets have six wins over sub-.500 teams in this span and SEVEN victories by double digits! Brooklyn wins this one "with room to spare!"
Good luck...Larry
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02-23-20 |
Pistons v. Blazers -4.5 |
Top |
104-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 13 m |
Show
|
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Por Blazers at 9:05 ET.
The Portland Trail Blazers advanced to the Western Conference Finals last season but the current season has, to say the least, NOT gone well. The Blazers came out of the All Star break 3 1/2 games back of the final playoff spot in the West and lost Friday night 128-115 at home to New Orleans. All-Star PG Damian Lillard (29.5-4.4-7.9) suffered a groin injury in a loss at Memphis in the final game before the All-Star break and expects to miss a few more after sitting out Friday night. Portland has dropped its last three games overall and remains 3 1/2 games behind eighth-place Memphis in the West, as the Blazers welcome the Pistons to Moda Center. Detroit is sliding toward the bottom of the standings in the East with losses in FIVE straight and 11 of its last 13 (19-39 Pistons are 19-39, just THREE game better than the East-worst Cavs) and begins a four-game West Coast trip with this visit to Portland.
Detroit is in the process of a full roster rebuild. Detroit traded away former franchise center Andre Drummond (17.8 & 15.8) prior to the All-Star break and reached a buyout agreements with veteran PG Reggie Jackson (14.9 & 5.1 APG) during the break plus reached a buyout agreement with SF Markieff Morris (11.0 & 3.9) on Friday. PG Griffin (15.5 & 4.&) is out for the season and SG Kennard (15.8 & 4.1 APG) hasn't played since before Christmas and remains "a ways away" from a return, although he has progressed to taking some contact in practice, according reports in The Detroit News. That leaves Derrick Rose, John Henson, Tony Snell and Langston Galloway as the only healthy veterans drawing regular minutes.
With Lillard sidelined on Friday, Portland got at least 13 points from all FIVE of its starters, led by CJ McCollum's 27 points and 10 assists. However, the Blazers allowed the Pelicans to shoot 53.6 percent from the floor. Gary Trent Jr. (7.0) started in place of Lillard and contributed 15 points The other starters are McCollum (21.4-3.9-3.9), Whiteside (15.8 & 14.0), Anthony (15.2 & 6.6) and Ariza. Portland traded for Ariza (Sacramento) and he's been a solid addition, averaging 10.3 & 4.8 in 12 games (he's also an excellent defender).
Portland's goal is to stay afloat while Lillard recovers from a groin injury and if the blazers can't handle the Piston's talent-challenged lineup at home, the team may as well just as well 'wave a white flag.' The "Price is Right" even without Lillard against this Detroit 'JV' team.
Good luck...Larry
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02-23-20 |
Butler v. Creighton -5.5 |
Top |
59-81 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 9 m |
Show
|
My 10* Weekend Wipeout is on Creighton at 4:00 ET.
Creighton jumped from No. 23 to No. 15 in Monday's AP poll and then won 73-65 at No. 19 Marquette on Tuesday. That comes after winning at then-No. 8 Villanova on Feb 1 and at then-No. 10 Seton Hall on Feb 12. The 15th-ranked Bluejays, who were picked to finish seventh in the 10-team Big East prior to the season, will attempt to earn four wins against ranked opponents in the same month for the first time in school history on Sunday, when they host No. 21 Butler. The Bulldogs made six NCAA trips from 1997-2007, before Brad Stevens took them to FIVE tourneys in six years, including back-to-back runner-up finishes in 2010 and 2011. Chris Holtmann led Butler to three straight NCAA appearances from 2015-17 and LaVell Jordan followed with an NCAA berth in 2018 but the Bulldogs finished just 16-17 last season. Butler opened the season 7-0 and on Dec 2 entered the AP poll at No. 24, ending a span of 43 consecutive polls on "the outside, looking in!' Butler sat at 15-1 through mid-January and rose as No. 5 in the AP poll (highest rating in school history) but will enter this contest 19-8 (7-7 Big East), having gone just 4-7 its last 11 (all conference games).
Butler's frustrating stretch continued Wednesday when Seton Hall's Sandro Mamukelashvili hit an off-balance shot in the lane as time expired to send Butler to a 74-72 defeat. All-American candidate Kamar Baldwin (16.3-4.5-3.3) led the Bulldogs in scoring for the 11th time in the last 14 games Wednesday with 20 points and ranks third in the conference with 18.4 points per game during league play. 6=6 senior Sean McDermott (11.9 & 6.0) is the only other player on the team averaging in double digits. Playing up front with him are Nze (9.3 & 6.5), Tucker (9.0 & 3.9) and Golden (8.5 & 3.7). PG Thompson (6.8 & 4.9 APG) returned from a one-game absence due to a concussion and contributed 12 points in the loss to Seton Hall.
Creighton opened the season starting a trio of guards in Ty-Shon Alexander, Marcus Zegarowski and Mitch Ballock (12.3 & 5.5). However, highly touted 6-5 guard Denzel Mahoney became eligible in mid-December and Creighton now goes with a four-guard lineup. Alexander (16.9 & 5.3) poured in 22 points Tuesday and is averaging 18.5 points while shooting 32-for-80 beyond the arc in his last 11 games (he also owns a 32:9 assist-to-turnover ratio and has accumulated 15 steals, over that same stretch). Zegarowski (15.8-3.7-5.1), Mahoney (12.4 & 3.5) and Ballock (12.1 & 5,4) join Alexander to give Creighton an awesome perimeter group. The 6-5 SF Jefferson (9.6 & 5.5) and the 6-7 Bishop (8.4 & 5.3) are the team's top frontcourt performers.
Greg McDermott is in his 10th season as head coach of Creighton. He arrived in 2010-11 and led the Bluejays to a runner-up finish in the CBI. Three straight NCAA teams followed, as Creighton won 29, 28 and 27 games. His lone losing season came in 2014-15 but Creighton's now won 20-plus games the last five years. Butler is one victory shy of reaching 20 wins for the 20th time in the last 24 seasons but win No. 20 WON'T come here. Creighton can tie a single-season program record with a FIFTH straight regular-season Big East victory with a win on Sunday and that "W" comes "with room to spare," avenging a 71-54 Jan 4 loss at Hinkle Fieldhouse. Lay the points!
Good luck...Larry
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02-23-20 |
Celtics v. Lakers -6 |
Top |
112-114 |
Loss |
-115 |
7 h 8 m |
Show
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My 9* Situational Stunner is on the LA Lakers at 3:35 ET.
The NBA's two most decorated franchises renew their historic rivalry Sunday at Staples Center when the Los Angeles Lakers host the Boston Celtics. Boston and Los Angeles have 33 NBA championships between them and have met in the Finals a record 12 times. Both are once again title contenders, with the 39-16 Celtics sitting third in the Eastern Conference and the 42-12 Lakers leading the Western Conference. The Celtics hosted the Lakers back on Jan 20 (MLK Day) and broke out of slump that had seen them lose SIX of eight with a dominating 139-107 victory. The victory jump-started Boston's current 12-2 stretch, in which the Celtics have gone 10-4 ATS. Los Angeles has bounced back just fine from that loss and got back into action following the All-Star break with a 117-105 win over Memphis at home Friday night.
Boston's 127-117 win at Minnesota on Friday came without All-Star PG Kemba Walker (21.8-4.1-5.0), who recently received an injection in his ailing knee and had it drained (he will miss this one, as well). Gordon Hayward picked up plenty of the slack with 29 points while Daniel Theis broke out for career highs of 25 points and 16 rebounds. Tatum (22.5 & 7.0) and Brown (20.3 & 6.4) join Walker as 20-point scorers, while Hayward (17.6-6.7-4.1) is close to playing at "peak-level." Smart (12.5-3.6-4.8) has developed into a team leader, while Kanter (9.0 & 8.2) and Theis (8.7 & 6.4) have developed into a solid center duo.
Anthony Davis (26.7 & 9.3) has a calf issue but led LA with 28 points and seven blocks on Friday night. LBJ (25.1-7.7-10.7) ain't bad either (he had 32 vs the Grizzlies) but only Kuzma (12.5 & 4.4) joins that Dynamic Duo in double digits. That said, SIX Lakers are averaging between 7.0 and 9.6 PPG, including the solid center duo of Howard (7.7 & 7.8) and McGee (7.0 & 5.8) plus defensive specialist Bradley (8.7), who has reached double digits in FIVE consecutive games.
Four Celtics, Brown, Tatum, Hayward and Theis, each scored at least 25 points in Friday's 127-117 win at Minnesota, marking the first time since 1960 that four Boston players hit that mark in the same game. However, Minnesota is the NBA's worst ATS team 21-36-1 and has lost 16 of its last 17 SU. The Lakers are NOT the T-wolves and will surely want some "payback" from that 139-107 'spanking' back in Boston on Jan 20. Tatum, Walker and Jaylen Brown all scored 20-plus points in that one but as noted above, Walker will not play in this one. The Celtics held the Lakers to 43.8 percent shooting from the floor, 26.9 percent from three-point range, and forced 15 turnovers. LBJ was limited to 15 points (more than 10 below his season average) and A.D. had just NINE points, almost 18 fewer than his season average. Think those two are looking forward to this one? Lay the points.
Good luck...Larry
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02-23-20 |
Rutgers v. Wisconsin -4.5 |
Top |
71-79 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 10 m |
Show
|
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Wisconsin at 1:00 ET.
Rutgers head coach Steve Pikiell is in his fourth season at the school, having gone 44-54 in his first three. Coming off a 14-17 season a year ago, Rutgers was picked 12th (of 14 schools) in the Big Ten preseason polls but the Scarlet Knights got off to their best start since the 1996-97 season and earned an AP ranking for the first time since the end of the 1978-79 season back on Jan 20. However, the Scarlet Knights are just 4-5 since losing at Iowa on Jan 23, including its first home loss of the season, 60-52 to Michigan on Wednesday. Wisconsin has been to the "Big Dance" in 20 of the last 21 seasons and Sunday, the Badgers look to take another step towards securing an NCAA Tournament bid when they hosts Rutgers. Wisconsin (16-10 / 9-6 Big Ten) has won three consecutive games, including a 69-65 victory over Purdue on Tuesday, to move within a game of reaching double-digit wins in Big Ten play the 13th time in the last 14 seasons. Wisconsin lost 72-65 to the Scarlet Knights back on Dec 11 at "The RAC" (Rutgers Athletic Center).
Pikiel took his team to Spain in August and Rutgers went 4-0, while jelling as a unit. The "breakout star" of that trip was guard Ron Harper, who averaged 17.0 PPG on 53 percent shooting. He's currently Rutgers' leading scorer, averaging 11.9 PPG and adding 5.6 RPG. PG Baker (10.25& 3.5 APG) plus a trio of other of guards combine to add 22.4 PPG. Up front, the 6-6 Yeboah (10.1 & 4.8) and the 6-10 Johnson (8.0 & 7.9) are the biggest contributors. Baker scored a team-high 16 points against Michigan to finish in double figures for the 13th time this season. Harper scored 13 points and Yeboah added 10 points and five rebounds, but the Scarlet Knights were doomed by an 0-of-10 performance from three-point range in the final 20 minutes.
The Badgers lost the 6-10 Happ (17.3 & 10.1) and a solid guard in Iverson (6.9 & 4.5) from last season's 23-win NCAA team but the Badgers have a solid returning core. The 6-11 Reuvers (13.5 & 4.8) may not be Happ but he's a quality man. Wisconsin owns a 'DEEP' backcourt in King (10.0), Trice (9.7-4.2-4.0), Davison (9.4 & 4.7) and Pritzl (7.7 & 3.7). King left the team four games ago, but Wisconsin is 4-1 without him. The 6-10 Micah Potter, an Ohio St transfer who became eligible in December, has averaged 8.9 & 5.8 since joining the team and along with the 6-8 Ford (8.3 & 4.1), support Reuvers up front. In fact, Ford knocked down five 3-pointers en route to a career-high 19 points and pulled down seven rebounds as the Badgers hit EIGHT straight free throws down the stretch to stave off a late rally by Purdue. Pritzl scored eight of his 13 points from the FT line and grabbed six rebounds while Brad Davison also tallied 13 points as Wisconsin finished 19-of-20 from the foul line. Reuvers chipped in 12 points, six rebounds and a pair of blocked shots. Wisconsin is a VERY disciplined team, ranking fifth nationally in fewest turnovers per game (10.3).
Kudos to Rutgers for its excellent season but The Kohl Center has been a "House of Horrors" for visiting teams for two decades and the current season is NO different, with the Badgers going 12-1 (lone loss was 71-70 to Illinois). Wisconsin has beaten Maryland, Michigan St, Ohio St and Purdue (all four have been ranked at some time this season) at this venue already, so why won't the Badgers add a "revenge win" here vs Rutgers? After all, Rutgers is 1-6 SU away from "The RAC" in Big Ten play, winning only at Nebraska (7-19 / 2-13 Big Ten).
Good luck...Larry
|
02-22-20 |
Fresno State v. Nevada -6.5 |
Top |
76-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 17 m |
Show
|
My 10* CBB Game of the Year is on Nevada at 10:00 ET. Justin Hutson spent two 'tours' as an assistant at SD St, sandwiched around a stint as an assistant at UNLV, before getting his first head coaching job at Fresno St for the 2018-19 season. He took over a program that had won 20-plus games the previous three seasons and continued that success by leading last year's Bulldogs to a 23-9 season, including a 3rd-place finish in the MWC (13-5). However, he lost THREE starters off that team, including his two highest scorers, guards Huggins (18.5 & 4.3) and Taylor (17.9-3.7-5.0). Fresno has struggled in Hutson's second season, entering this contest 10-17, including 6-10 in league play.
Eric Mussleman led Nevada to the CBI title in his first season (2015-16) and then to three straight NCAA appearances with win totals of 28, 29 and 29. However, Musselman left for Arkansas and was replaced by Steve Alford. The former Indiana star had coaching success at Missouri St and New Mexico but was generally viewed as a 'flop' at UCLA, where he was fired during last season. He took over a Nevada team that lost all FIVE starters but Alford's done a good job, as the Woolf Pack enter this game 17-10 overall, including 10-5 in the MWC (currently 3rd). ALL schools are "looking up" at SD St but 2nd-place and sixth-place in the MWC finds teams bunched with in 1 1/2 games of each other.
Fresno St beat Air Force 71-62 at home on Thursday, as guard senior Blackwell (9.7-3.1-3.1) matched a career high with 25 points and is joined in the backcourt by fellow senior Williams (11.9). 6-10 freshman Robinson (12.7 & 6.8) and 6-8 senior Grimes (11.6 & 10.0) are Fresno's top frontcourt players. Nevada is led by a deep backcourt. Jalen Harris, a La Tech transfer, leads the way averaging 21.8-6.5-4.0. He's joined by returning guards Johnson (16.2 & 3.4), Drew (11.1-6.7-4.3) and Zouzoua (9.6). No frontcourt player averages more than 20 minutes per game but a "group of four" combine to add 18.6 PPG and 16.5 RPG. Two 6-10 big men, freshman Meeks (6.9 & 4.0) and senior Reyes (4.7 & 4.4), are the best of the bunch.
Beating Air Force at home is no big deal (Falcons are 4-1 in MWC play) and I'll note that FSU entered that contest on a 2-6 ATS run. This marks Fresno’s final road game and it's being played at elevation like at Colorado St, where the Bulldogs lost by 18 points! Meanwhile, Nevada comes in on 4-0 SU & ATS run (not to mention the school's 8-1 ATS mark since mid-January). Nevada is in "prime" position to finish among the top-5 in the Mountain West, thereby earning a first-round bye (note: Wolf Pack are just a HALF-GAME behind second-place Utah St). Lay the points!
Good luck...Larry
|
02-22-20 |
Alabama v. Ole Miss -2 |
|
103-78 |
Loss |
-109 |
15 h 51 m |
Show
|
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Ole Miss at 8:30 ET.
Alabama takes a 14-12 overall record (6-7 in the SEC) into a game Saturday night in Oxford against the 13-13 Ole Miss Rebels (4-9 SEC). The Crimson Tide have been competitive against the best in the SEC but come to Mississippi losers of FIVE of seven, after an 'ugly' 74-68 home loss to a 13-12 Texas A&M team. Any more losses like the one suffered Wednesday and Alabama can probably 'kiss an at-large NCAA berth goodbye!" Ole Miss won three straight from Feb 5-11 but enters this contest off back-to-back road losses, 67-62 at Kentucky and 71-68 at Missouri. Ole Miss is now 1-6 in games decided by fewer than six points, including 0-5 in the SEC.
Alabama owns a deep backcourt, with three in double digits. Lewis (17.5-5.1-5.0) leads the way, along with Petty (15.0 & 7.0) and Shackelford (14.7 & 4.3). The 6-9 Reese (9.4 & 4.6) and the 6-7 Jones (8.9 & 6.6) are the top frontcourt performers. Ole Miss counters with a deep backcourt, as well. Tyree (20.3) is outstanding and is joined by Shuler (11.2-4.7-3.5) and Hinson (10.3 & 5.0). The 6-67 Buffen (9.9 & 6.1) and the 6-10 Sy (9.4 & 5.5) give the Rebels a small edge up front.
Senior guard Breein Tyree has been on a tear, averaging 29.8 points in the last five contests, including games of 38 points and a career-high 40. The worst Ole Miss home-floor performance has been a four-point loss to then-No. 18 LSU and I'll take them here vs an Alabama team that opened 15-3 ATS but enters this contest just 3-5 ATS over its last eight.
Good luck...Larry
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