The set-up: Two first-place teams meet Thursday night at Pittsburgh's Heinz Field, as the 6-3 Tennessee Titans (tied atop the AFC South with the Jacksonville Jags) visit the 7-2 Pittsburgh Steelers (alone atop the NFC North and owners of a three-game lead). The Titans had high expectations entering 2017 but opened just 2-3. However, Tennessee enters Thursday's game on a four-game winning streak, beating the Colts, Browns, Ravens and Bengals (not exactly a "murderer's row"). The Steelers opened 3-1 but were then shocked at home by the Jags, losing 30-9. Big Ben was awful in that game (five INTs!) and prompted him to question "if he still had it?" Question answered, as the Steelers have won four in a row and currently hold down the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

Tennessee: QB Marcus Mariota (1,783 passing yard with just seven TDs and six INTs /QB rating of 83.1) is battling ankle and shoulder injuries but expects to play through the pain. The team's two-pronged rushing attack features DeMarco Murray (433 yards, four TDs) and Derrick Henry (409 yards, three TDs), ranking 8th at 124.8 YPG. The offense comes in averaging only 22.8 PPG (13th) on the season and pretty much needs to find a way to get its offense on track on the road after scoring a combined 36 points in its last three games away from home. Defensively, Tennessee allows 23.7 PPG (22nd) on 328.3 YPG (16th).

Pittsburgh: Roethlisberger has thrown for 2,298 yards with 12 TDs and INTs (83.8 QB rating), hardly 'career' numbers. However, he has the best WR in the NFL on his side in Antonio Brown (60 catches / 882 yards / 3 TDs). He also may play with the NFL's best RB as well, in Le’Veon Bell (840 YR with 5 TDs / 40 catches). It will come as no surprise that Pittsburgh's D ranks second in points allowed (16.4) and total yards allowed (284.4).

The pick: I noted earlier that Big Ben is not exactly having a career season but that's actually an understatement. Truth is, his completion percentage of 61.1 and QB rating of 83.8 represent his lowest marks since 2008. That's led to three of Pittsburgh’s last four wins coming by six points or less, with the Steelers having scored 20 points or less in four of their last five. The Titans know a lot about "close games" as well (five of last seven have been decided by six points or less) and come in 3-0 against AFC North opponents in 2017. Take the points and make the Titans an 8* play.

The set-up: The 4-4 Miami Dolphins will visit Bank of America Stadium.in Charlotte to take on the 6-3 Carolina Panthers as Week 10 concludes with the latest MNF clash. The Dolphins have lost back-to-back games and a third straight loss would pretty much end any 'dream' of the team staying within shouting range of the Pats (now 7-2) in the AFC East. In contrast, the Panthers are seeking a third straight win in hopes of keeping pace with the red-hot Saints who won their seventh in a row to move to 7-2 in the NFC South. The Panthers are in for a 'dog fight' in their division in 2017, as the Atlanta Falcons are also lurking at 5-4.

Miami: QB Jay Cutler returned last weekend after missing a game with cracked ribs. He had his best game of the season last Sunday, despite the Dolphins falling at home 27-24 to the Raiders. Cutler completed 34 of 42 for 311 yards with three TDs and zero INTs. However, he's averaging only 170.0 YPG through the air and has 10 TDs and five INTs on the season, for a QB rating of 87.4. Miami 'traded away" its running game when it shipped Pro Bowl selection Jay Ajayi to Philadelphia. He owns 75% of the team's rushing yards in 2017 and even including Ajayi's contributions, Miami ranks 30th in rushing at 77,6 YPG. With Ajayi gone, Kenyan Drake is the team's leading rusher with just 94 yards on the season. The Dolphins ranks last in both scoring (14.5 PPG) and total offense (270.2 YPG). Miami's defense is middle-of-the-pack, allowing 22.4 PPG (17th).

Carolina: Cam Newton is pretty much a "one-man show" in Carolina when it comes to the team's offense. However, he's way off his MVP-like performance of the 2015 season. He's averaging only 202.1 YPG with 10 TDs and 11 INTs, giving him even a lower QB rating (78.4) than Cutler. Newton ran or 86 yards in Carolina's 20-17 win over Atlanta last Sunday but the Panthers were likely happier that rookie RB Christian McCaffrey picked up a season-high 66 rushing yards plus his first rushing score last week. "A lot had to do with the blocking up front," head coach Ron Rivera said. "I thought we got our hands on them and we were able to push and Christian was able to make some cuts." McCaffrey leads the team with 54 catches out of the backfield, although WR Devin Funchess also has stepped up as the team's top wide-out since Kelvin Benjamin was traded to Buffalo (Funchess had five catches vs. Atlanta and now has 38 on the season). The Carolina D is playing at a high level and is the reason the Panthers are 6-3. The Panthers are allowing a league-low 274.1 YPG overall, while allowing a modest 17.7 PPG (3rd-best).

The pick: McCaffrey's performance was encouraging last Sunday but where has he been all year? Cam Newton continues to carry too heavy of a burden for this offense and it can't go unnoticed that the Panthers may have won two straight but they enter this contest having averaged just 13.3 PPG in their last three games (not a team one wants to lay big points with!). The Dolphins are coming off their best offensive performance by far and let me also point out that Miami has had five games decided by six points or less, with three of its last four games featuring three-point margins. Does it matter that Miami is 4-1 SU all-time vs. Carolina, going 5-0 ATS? It doesn't hurt! Make Miami a 10* play.

The pick: These two teams have played each other pretty tight, splitting the last six games with three wins apiece. One has to expect Denver, especially here at home, to bring its "A game" off that Philly embarrassment. The problem is, the Pats are 3-0 on the road in 2017, extending their road winning streak to 11-0! Then again, Sports Authority/Invesco Field has been a house of horrors in the past for Tom Brady, who is 0-3 SU & ATS in playoff games at Denver. However, those past problems at Mile High came vs. very good  Broncos teams, which doesn’t seem to apply here in 2017. Expect Denver to "give its all" in this one but not to contain Brady and the Pats "O." Make the Over an 8* play.

The set-up: The surprising LA Rams sit top the NFC West at 6-2, coming off a 4-12 season in 2016. The Texans won the AFC North with a 9-7 record in 2016 and after six weeks of the 2017 season, stood at 3-3. However, the emergence of rookie QB of Deshaun Watson had the Texans thinking playoffs again this year. Coming off a Week 7 bye, the Texans lost a 41-38 shootout to the Seahawks and then disaster struck in the days leading up to their Week 9 game with the Colts. Watson was lost for the season to a non-contact injury at practice. The Texans visit the LA Memorial Coliseum at just 3-5 and hardly look like a playoff contender, now.

Houston: Tom Savage, who was given the Week 1 start over Watson, was back under center against the Colts and once again proved he's not ready for primetime. He completed 19 of 44 for 219 yards with one TD and no INTs but with a QB rating of 66.1. He's completed a poor 45.6% of his 57 pass attempts in 2017 and while he has not thrown an interception, he has just one TD pass (QB rating is 66.5). DeAndre Hopkins is a top-flight WR (51 catches for 692 yards with 8 TDs) but he needs a QB to get him the ball. Lamar Miller is the team's leading rusher with 483 yards but while Houston averages 132.8 YPG on the ground to rank 4th, Watson's 269 yards (on 7.2 YPC) were a big part of that. With J.J. Watt also out for the season, the once-proud Houston defense is now allowing 26.0 PPG, to rank 30th of 32 teams.

LA Rams: Sean McVay has become a coaching prodigy in just a half-season and is being given most of the credit for Jared Goff's re-birth. The league's No. 1 draft choice in 2016, came off a rookie year in which he was 0-7 as a starter. However, Goff has led the Rams to a 6-2 record, completing 60.2 percent for an average of 245.3 YPG with 13 TDs and just 4 four INTs (QB Rating of 97.9). RB Gurley has sure been a huge help, rushing for 686 yards and seven TDs while catching 29 passes with three more TDs (his10 TDs are tops in the NFL). In all, the Rams top the NFL by scoring 32.9 PPG on 382.1 YPG, which ranks 3rd. The defense has sure not disappointed under DC Wade Phillips, holding opponents to 19.4 PPG (9th), after allowing 24.6 PPG in 2016.

The pick: Clearly, the Rams are a team on the rise and one to be reckoned with in 2017. Meanwhile, the Texans need to find a QB quickly and they have signed Matt McGloin, T.J. Yates and Josh Johnson over the past two weeks. Johnson has not seen action in the NFL since appearing in two games with Cincinnati in 2013. but remains on the roster, McGloin, who played for Oakland from 2013-16, has since been released while Yates, who made seven starts in two previous stints with the club, is likely the best option. Here's the rub. The Rams are just 2-2 SU & ATS at home in 2017 plus they are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 home games and 1-5 ATS versus a team with a losing record. Surprise, make Houston a 10* play.

The set-up: Few would have predicted that the Saints would be 6-2 mid-way through the 2017 season, considering New Orleans entered the season off three consecutive 7-9 seasons. What's more, the Saints opened 2017 at 0-2 but visit the Buffalo Bills at New Era Field in Orchard Park, NY on Sunday afternoon for this Week 10 game having gone 6-0 SU & ATS to surge to the top of the NFC South (Panthers are 6-3 and the Falcons 4-4). The Bills have also been a surprise in 2017 but are coming off a poor effort in Week 9's Thursday night game, losing 34-21 to the Jets. The loss doped Buffalo to 5-3 in the AFC East, one game back of teh 6-2 Pats. I doubt anyone, even teh Bills themselves, believe they out-last the Pats for the division crown but the Bills do currently own the final wild card spot in the AFC.

New Orleans: Drew Brees completed 22 of his 27 pass attempts for 263 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the team's 30-10 win last Sunday over the Bucs. So what else is new for the ageless wonder? He enters the second half of the the 2017 completing 71.6% of his passes with 13 TDs and just four INTs (105.0 QB rating). Ingram quietly leads a running game averaging 122.8 YPG (7th), helping Brees lead the Saints to an average of 27.6 PPG (6th). The defense has been a mess the last few seasons but the team's stop unit continues to surprise, allowing just 19.4 PPG, which ranks 10th.

Buffalo: No one quite seems sold on QB Tyrod Taylor but he threw for 285 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 29 of 40 passing, while also leading the Bills on the ground with 35 rushing yards and a rushing TD on six carries against the Jets. The Bills led the NFL in rushing in 2016 (164.4 YPG) but LeSean McCoy has had an up-and-down season so far, with a case in point being his 25-yard effort against the Jets, For the season, Buffalo is averaging 116.9 YPG on the ground, almost 50 yards per games less than last season (that's no small deal!). However, the defense has improved from allowing 23.6 PPG to just 18.6 PPG in 2017.

The pick: I'm well aware that Buffalo is 4-0 SU at home but the Bills just can't establish a consistent running game like last season. Meanwhile, the Saints' "under the radar" running game, led by Mark Ingram and rookie Alvin Kamara, has given Brees a balance on offense that he hasn't had in years. I should also note that the swarming Saint “D,” has also made this team a real NFC title-game contender. Here's something most don't know. The Saints are 11-2 ATS their last 13 road games! Make New Orleans an 8* play.

The set-up: The Lions picked up a rare win in Lambeau Field this past Monday when they beat the Rodgers-less Packers, 30-17. QB Matthew Stafford connected on 26 of 33 passes for 361 yards and two touchdowns (both to Marvin Jones) in the win at Green Bay. The victory got the Lions to 4-4, two games back of the 6-2 Vikings in the NFC North.
However, there is good news for the Lions, as they have a favorable schedule in the second half of the season, facing just one team (Minnesota) with a winning record the rest of the way. To no one's surprise, the Browns are once again struggling. Cleveland was 1-15 in Hue Jackson's first season as head coach (2016) and coming off a bye last Sunday, enter this Week 10 contest 0-8. The Browns aren't thinking playoffs, just how can they find a win or two in the season's second half.

Cleveland: WR Josh Gordon returned to the team during the week but isn't eligible to play until Dec. 3. Other quality players are fighting injuries. All-purpose RB Duke Johnson left the last game with a concussion and is listed as questionable but DE Myles Garrett (the No. 1 overall pick of the 2017 draft) has cleared concussion protocol and is expected to play. Defensive back Jabrill Peppers is uncertain to play after missing the past two games with a toe injury. Rookie QB DeShone Kizer was benched early in the second half the previous week after throwing two interceptions against Tennessee but played the entire Week 8 against Minnesota (a 33-16 loss). He completed 18 of 34 passes for only 179 yards but didn't commit any turnovers. Kizer was second-round pick out of Notre Dame but is completing just 52.1 percent of his passes with three touchdowns and 11 interceptions, giving him an awful 51.1 QB rating. He has to realize that he needs to improve quickly or become just another failed Browns signal caller. Cleveland is scoring just 14.9 PPG (31st), while allowing 25.2 PPG (28th). This just in...that's not a good combo.

Detroit: Stafford is a quality QB and is having another good seson. He's completing 62.4% for 2,212 yards with 14 TDs and just four INTs (94.4 QB ratings). The running game stinks (79.9 YPG ranks 29th) but Stafford leads an offense that averages 25.8 PPG (8th). Stafford's first scoring pass to Jones in last week's MNF contest was the 200th TD pass in his 117th career game (sixth-quickest in NFL history). Jones has 33 catches and a team-high five TD receptions, while Golden Tate has shrugged off shoulder issues to lead all receivers with 562 yards on 50 catches.

The pick: As noted, the Lions are not in bad shape for a playoff push but Detroit's defense is in the bottom half of the league in points allowed (23.2 PPG arnks 20th) and yards allowed (341.8 YPG ranks 21st). Sure, the Browns are 0-8 but they haven't 'rolled over!' Four of their losses have come by just three points and they very well could have won a few of those. The Lions actually come into this contest having lost theri last three home games and that's been due in large part due to the team's red-zone woes. Detroit ranks 27th at 45.8 percent scoring TDs in the red zone, just one spot ahead of the Browns (45.0). No upset but take the huge points and make Cleveland an 8* play.

The setup: The Seattle Seahawks are 5-3, after their four-game win streak was brought to a halt on Sunday at home, when the Redskins beat them 17-14. The loss hurt, as the Rams romped 51-17 over the NY Giants in Week 9, moving one game ahead of Seattle in the NFC West at 6-2. Seattle now comes to the University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, to take on NFC West rival Arizona. The Cardinals come in 4-4, sandwiching a loss to the Rams between wins over Tampa Bay and San Francisco.

Seattle: QB Russell Wilson threw 297 yards with two TDs against Washington but also threw two picks. Wilson has completed 62.0 percent for 2,305 yards with 17 TDs and six INTs (95.9 QB rating). He also leads Seattle in rushing with 271 yards and a TD on 46 attempts, which is not good news, as Seattle ranks 19th with 103.9 YPG. Seattle has always prided itself on defense under Pete Carroll (ever hear of the Legion of Boom?) but the Seahawks are allowing 332.5 YPG to rank 13th (not typical). However, Seattle is allowing a modest 18.6 PPG, which ranks 6th.

Arizona: The Cardinals' 33-0 loss to the Rams in London dropped them to 3-4 and they also lost Carson Palmer for the season. Drew Stanton has stepped up in the past and after a Week 8 bye, Stanton stepped in against San Francisco last Sunday to help the Cards win 20-10, moving to 4-4. Stanton completed 15 of 30 for 201 yards with two TDs and one INT vs. the 49ers. Drew Stanton extended his regular-season winning streak to four starts, albeit spread over nearly three years. "When Drew steps in the huddle, there is total confidence in the other 10 guys," head coach Bruce Arians told reporters. "They know he knows this offense inside and out, and when he gets a hot hand, he can really light you up." However, Adrian Peterson was "the difference" for the second time in his three games since coming to Arizona. A.P. ran for 134 yards and two TDs in the Cards' 38-33 win over Tampa Bay in Week 6 and then had 159 yards on the ground last Sunday against the 49ers, after running for only 21 yards in the London loss (Week 7)..

The pick: The Seahawks' offense has been pretty unpredictable, as they’ve scored at least 41 points twice in the last five games and 17 points or fewer twice in that span as well. However, the Seahawks were fit to be tied after seeing their four-game winning streak come to a halt last week following three missed FG attempts (of 44, 39 and 49 yards) plus committing a season-high 16 penalties! Seattle is 7-0 ATS in their last seven Thursday games and while Arians is 3-1 against the Seahawks in Seattle, he's 0-3-1 against them at home since becoming the Cardinals' coach in 2013. This total is low enough to make the Over a 10* play.

The set-up: The Packers and Bears are the NFL's oldest rivalry but the Lions/Packers are not exactly unfamiliar with each other (this will be the series' 115th meeting, with the Packers owing a 60-40-4 edge). The Lions are 3-4 on the season but limp into Lambeau Field having lost four of their last five for tonight's Week 9 MNF matchup with the Aaron Rodgers-less Green Bay Packers. The Packers lost their Week 6 game at Minnesota and more devastatingly, lost Rodgers to a season-ending injury. In the team's first game without Rodgers (a Week 7 game at home vs. the Saints), Green Bay lost 26-19 with backup QB Brett Hundley proving he was nowhere near ready for primetime (12 of 25 for 87 yards without a TD and with one INT). The Packers had a much-needed bye in Week 8 and at 4-3, will now host the Lions. Both teams (surely the loser of this game) are in danger of losing touch with the NFC North's leader, the 6-2 Vikings (enjoying their bye week).

Detroit: The Lions opened 2-0 but enter on a three-game losing streak (four losses in their last five), after losing 20-15 at home against the Steelers a week ago Sunday night. QB Stafford threw for 423 yards on 27 of 45 passing as Golden Tate didn't let an ailing shoulder slow him down as he recorded seven receptions for the second straight game. However, Detroit was only able to rush for 71 yards on 22 carries and failing to run the ball effectively is something that's been a recurring problem for Detroit, as the Lions come into this contest averaging 82.1 YPG (3.5 YPC) on the ground (28th). In fact, it has been 59 games since the Lions have had a 100-yard rusher (Reggie Bush versus Green Bay in 2013).

Green Bay: The Packers are off a bye but also off back-to-back losses (falling from 4-1 to 4-3) and while Hundley looked overwhelmed by the challenge in his role as a starter, he was hardly the only problem the Packers had in their Week 7 game with the Saints. The Pack's defense would allow 485 yards of total offense to New Orleans while letting the Saints rack up almost 37 minutes of possession in the game. Hundley will face a Detroit defense tonight which owns 10 interceptions and 16 overall takeaways, ranking third-best in the league.

The pick; To say that Detroit has had trouble winning at Green Bay is a huge understatement. Yes, the Lions won in Lambeau in 2015 but the team's last previous win there was back in 1991!. The Lions never got into the end zone vs. the Steelers, settling for five FGs (going 0-for-5 in scoring a TD in the red zone for that game, dropped Detroit to 28th in red zone TD efficiency). However, against an always excellent Pittsburgh D, the Lions were able to gain 485 yards. Stafford is used to carrying the Detroit offense and it's unlikely that Detroit's red zone issues will haunt them again in this one. As for Green Bay, Hundley can't possibly be as bad as he showed vs. the Saints and the bye week should have been a big help. "Me and Aaron talk a lot," Hundley told reporters on Thursday. "Even when he was playing, we still talked a lot. It's the same - now it's a different type of talk. He's telling me stuff, and it's good for me. Aaron's always been a brother to me. Whenever you have people like that around, you always feel better." Make the Over a 10* play.

The set-up: The 4-3 Miami Dolphins are 'licking their wounds' from a 40-0 loss at Baltimore in Week 8's Thursday night game, as they get set to welcome the Oakland Raiders to Miami Gardens and Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday evening. The Oakland Raiders know all about disappointment, as after opening the 2017 season at 2-0, the Raiders have lost five of six, with the team's lone win coming when Oakland scored on the game's final play of a 31-30 victory over the Chiefs in Week 7 (also, a Thursday night game).

Oakland: Derek Carrr (64.6% with 12 TDs and 6 INTs / 90.9 QB rating) has only missed one game but he's clearly not 100 percent.Carr followed up his 417-yard explosion versus Kansas City with a 313-yard effort against Buffalo but he also tossed two interceptions for the third time in five contests. He'd love some help from his running game but Lynch has been a bust and Oakland ranks 26th with 88.0 YPG on the ground. The Raiders scored 26 at Tennessee and 42 at home vs. the Jets in opening 2-0 but are averaging a modest 21.1 PPG on the season (20th). Oakland did score 31 in the team's lone win (KC) in its last six games but the Oakland offense has averaged a woeful 13.4 PPG in its five losses. The defense has also been an issue, allowing 27 points or more in four of its last six games (1-5 stretch).

Miami: The Dolphins lost two of their first three games (Week 1 contest was postponed due to Hurricane Irma) but then beat the Titans, Falcons and Jets, before falling to Baltimore 40-0 in their last appearance. Jay Cutler sat out vs. Baltimore due to multiple cracked ribs, with Matt Moore going 25 of 44 for only 176 yards with two picks! There is plenty to criticize regarding Cutler but it's good news for Miami fans that he's expected to play in this one. However, not only does Miami rank 31st in rushing yards at 76.3 YPG (just 3.2 YPC), but the Dolphins just traded away RB Ajayi (465 yards), who had accounted for 87 percent of the team's rushing yards in 2017 (you explain that to me?).

The pick: Clearly, the Raiders are not the "up and coming team ready to break out" that many thought they would be but even though Oakland is 3-5 and Miami 4-3, I still see the Raiders as a better team than the Dolphins. Miami rans dead-last (32nd) in both scoring (13.1 PPG) and total offense (252.4 YPG). Cutler is back under center (an improvement but not by much) and the running game (a disaster) now doesn't even have a featured back. What's more, the defense comes in having allowed 68 points over its last two games. Miami's had very little of a home field edge (7-11-1 ATS the last two-plus seasons), while the Raiders entered 2017 on a 12-4 TS run on the road the previous two seasons, before going 1-3 ATS away from home to open this season. I'm sticking with my belief that Oakland is the better team and I'll make the Raiders an 8* play.

Update: Elliott will play, but I'm still on the Chiefs!

The set-up: The Chiefs opened the 2017 season at 5-0 but then lost 19-13 at home to the Steelers, before losing a Thursday night Week 7 game at Oakland 31-30, when the Raiders scored on the game's final play. However, KC got back on the winning track this past Monday with a 29-19 home win over the Broncos. KC used a combo of five FGs and five turnovers (a fumble was returned 45 yards for a TD) in moving to 6-2 at the season's mid-point. KC is 'sitting pretty" in the AFC West, as no other team owns a .500 record. The Dallas Cowboys won 33-19 at Washington last Sunday and the win gets them to 4-3, although the Cowboys are in the same division (NFC East) as the Eagles, who own the NFL's best record at 7-1. The even bigger news may be that just when Dallas appeared to be gaining momentum, the drawn-out Ezekiel Elliott suspension saga seems to have ended with the Elliott expected to begin his six-game suspension for violation of the NFL's personal-conduct policy with this Week 9 contest.

Kansas City: QB Alex Smith had an off game last Monday (14 of 31) but he still hasn't thrown an interception in 259 attempts in 2017. He comes into this game completing 69.1 percent for 2,181 yards with 16 TDs and a QB rating of 115.4 (best in the NFL). Rookie RB Hunt was held to 46 yards rushing (2.1 YPC) but he has an NFL-best 763 (5.2 YPC & 4 TDs) on the season, while adding 28 catches (2 TDs). TE Kelce had a big game on Monday, catching seven passes for 133 yards and a TD, giving him a team-high 44 catches and four TDs on the season. The offense is third in the NFL in scoring (29.5 PPG) and total yards (377.9 per), which has made up for a defense not playing nearly as well as past KC stop units. KC ranks 30th in allowing 392.2 YPG and 19th in allowing 22.5 PPG.

Dallas; Ezekiel Elliott has 690 yards (4.2 YPC) and six TDs for a running game averaging 150.6 YPG (2nd-best). However, with Elliott out, Dallas will turn to Alfred Morris as the starter with Darren McFadden and Rod Smith serving as backups.Can those guys give Dak Prescott 'the cover' Elliott has? There has been no "sophomore jinx" for Prescott, who is completing 62.8 percent for 1,569 yards with 14 TDs and just four INTs (96.6 QB rating). He's also has 168 rushing yards (7.3 YPC & 3 TDs), while leading an offense that's averaged 28.3 PPG (5th). The defense is nothing special, allowing 23.0 PPG (20th).

The pick: My bet says it will make a HUGE difference that Elliott is not around and while Dallas has won eight of its last 10 home games, those two losses have come in the Cowboys' last TWO home games, falling 35-30 to the Rams (Week 4) and 35-31 to the Packers (Week 5). The Chiefs had their nine-game road winning streak snapped when they lost 31-30 at Oakland (in Week 7), on the game's final play. KC enters 14-3 ATS over the team's last 17 road games which is good enough for me to make the Chiefs a 10* play.

analysis coming

The set-up: The Baltimore Ravens have had an extra few days to enjoy the team's 40-0 win over the Dolphins in a Thursday night Week 8 game. QB Flacco did not play well and left with a concussion on a vicious hit by Miami's Kiko Alonso. However, Flacco returned to the team the next day vastly improved and is on the path to make the start, according to head coach John Harbaugh. The Tennessee Titans come into this contest off their bye week and will look to maintain their spot atop the AFC South standings with a win. The Titans are 4-3 (tied with the Jags), after an unimpressive 12-9 overtime victory at Cleveland in Week 7.

Baltimore: Flacco has failed to throw for more than 235 yards in any game this season (Baltimore ranks 32nd with 152.9 YPG passing) plus the veteran has thrown just six TDs against eight INTs on the season, giving him a poor 72.3 QB rating. Flacco was held out of practice for most of the week but he's the team's No. 1 QB and Harbaugh said he would start if he was cleared by the medical department. RB Alex Collins ran for a career-high 113 yards vs. Miami and the Ravens rank seventh with 126.9 YPG on the ground. The Ravens' defense was terrific vs. the Dolphins, returning two interceptions for TDs in the most lopsided shutout in franchise history (Miami had just 196 yards of total offense and was 4 for 15 on 3rd downs). On the season, Baltimore is allowing 18.5 PPG (5th) on 317.2 YPG (10th).

Tennessee: Speaking of defense, the Titans totally dominated the Browns back in Week 7, holding the Browns to 284 yards of total offense in the win. Offensively, Mariota was 21 of 34 for 203 yards but DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry combined to rush for only 72 yards on 31 carries. That effort was not typical, as Tennessee comes in averaging 124.6 YPG (8th). The Titans' defense is allowing 24.7 PPG (26th) on the season but over the last three games, Tennessee has held its opponents to 15.7 PPG.

The pick: Currently, Mariota owns a huge edge over Flacco and he is expected to get a boost with the return of WR Corey Davis, who was the fifth pick in last year's draft. He had six catches in Week 1 but has missed most of the season with a significant hamstring injury. He returned to practice on Monday and looks ready to jump right into the team's No. 1 receiver role. Davis set an FBS record with 5,285 career receiving yards at Western Michigan. Another edge for the Titans is PK Ryan Succop, who has made 55 straight FGs inside 50-yards! The Titans have covered six of their last seven in Nashville. Make Tennessee an 8* play.

The set-up: The Tampa Bay Bucs saw their Week 1 game postponed by Hurricane Irma but they opened 2-1. However, they have then fallen in succession to the Patriots, Cardinals, Bills and Panthers, leaving them at 2-5. In stark contrast, the Saints lost their first two games of the 2017 season but have followed with five straight wins over the Panthers, Dolphins, Lions, Packers and Bears. The Saints entered 2017 off three consecutive 7-9 seasons but have now won five in a row for the first time since 2013. New Orleans is atop the NFC South but leads the Panthers by just a half-game and the Falcons by one game. It's early but a Tampa Bay loss here in New Orleans, all but ends any real division hopes for the Bucs in 2017.

Tampa Bay: QB Jameis Winston is dealing with a shoulder injury but practiced on Wednesday, the first time he joined the mid-week practice since suffering the injury on Oct. 15. Winston completed 21-of-38 passes for 210 yards and two interceptions in the loss to the Panthers last week, marking the fourth time in the last five games that he failed to complete at least 60 percent of his passes. However, he is completing 61.8 percent on the season (10 TDs and six INTs) plus Tampa Bay ranks second in passing yards at 295.4 per game. The running game doesn't offer enough help though, averaging just 81.1 YPG (29th), one of the reasons the Bucs are averaging only 21.1 PPG (19th). Defensively, Tampa Bay is allowing 386.4 YPG (29th) and 24.0 PPG (24th).

New Orleans: The age-less Drew Brees is completing 70.6 percent of his passes, averaging 271.7 YPG through the air and has 11 TDs with just four INTs (101.7 QB rating). He leads an offense which ranks second in the league with 390.4 YPG and ranks 6th in scoring at 27.3 PPG. RB Mark Ingram became the undisputed starter again when New Orleans traded away Adrian Peterson last month and he's averaged 98 yards in the last three weeks but fumbled on two straight fourth-quarter drives against Chicago last week. "I sucked. I sucked," Ingram told reporters. "Two possessions we're about to ice the game. Let the ball go, hurt my team, hurt my coaches. That's the thing about a family, that's the thing about a team: They lift you up, they had my back, and we were able to get the W." A major improvement has been shown by the defense, which allowed 28.4 PPG in 2016 but has allowed 20.7 PPG in 2017 (12th).

The pick: The Buccaneers were expected to be the darlings of the NFC South in the preseason, while the New Orleans Saints were expected to just play out the end of Drew Brees' career near the bottom of the division. However, the teams have reversed that narrative so far this season, and the first-place Saints will go for their sixth consecutive win when they host the last-place Buccaneers on Sunday, who come in on that four-game skid. However, Tampa hasn’t exactly been lying down during its losing streak. The Bucs lost by five to the Patriots, five to the Cardinals and three to the Bills before 'laying an egg' in last week's 17-3 loss to the Panthers. If Ingram continues to run the ball well (while holding on to it!), he makes Brees even more effective. A Tampa Bay rush D which has only seven sacks on the year, also makes Brees' job easier in this matchup. That said, the Bucs know they really need a win here and are unlikely to bottle up Brees and Co, so the way to win is to match New Orleans score for score. Make the Over an 8* play.

The set-up: It's “Thursday Night Football” on the NFL Network from MetLife Stadium when the 5-2 Buffalo Bills square off against AFC East rival, the 3-5 NY Jets. The Bills are a huge surprise in 2017, as if the playoffs were to begin this weekend, Buffalo would be the AFC's No. 1 wild card team. The Jets opened 0-2 but then ripped off three straight wins but while playing very competitively the last three weeks, have fallen 24-17 at home to the Pats, 31-28 at Miami and 25-20 at home to the Falcons.

Buffalo: The Bills come in having won four of their last five, beating the Broncos, Falcons, Buccaneers and Raiders. Buffalo led the NFL in rushing last year at 164.4 YPG but it's running game wasn't doing much early and QB Tyrod Taylor is not good enough to carry this team. However, Buffalo's defense has been superb all season, holding opponents to just 16.4 PPG, third-best in the NFL. It's also noteworthy that the Buffalo owns a league-best plus-14 turnover margin. However, the key the last two weeks is the re-birth of Buffalo's running game, as the Bills have run for 173 and 165 yards in wins over Tampa Bay and Oakland since returning from a bye week. It's not a small deal, as after averaging 17.8 PPG through its first five games, Buffalo has scored 30 points in beating the Bucs and 34 points in beating the Raiders.

NY Jets: Hard-fought losses are starting to pile up and the optimism of the team's three-game winning streak is starting to fade. Veteran Matt RB Forte openly question the play-calling of offensive coordinator John Morton as the team appeared to abandon the run in the rainy and sloppy conditions versus the Falcons but QB Josh McCown recorded his highest completion percentage of the season in that contest (26-of-33, 78.8 percent). What's more, the journeyman has nine TD passes over his last four games, three times posting QB ratings of 100-plus. In stark contrast to the Bills who have just three giveaways, the Jets have been rather generous with the ball this season, committing 14 turnovers (seven interceptions, seven fumbles), including Jeremy Kerley's costly muffed punt in Sunday's 25-20 s

The pick: The Bills have not won the division since 1995 and would move into a tie with the idle New England Patriots for first place in the division with a win. Let's also note that the Bills gave notice that are serious about ending the team's 17-year playoff drought (NFL's longest current) by acquiring WR Kelvin Benjamin (32 receptions, 475 yards, two touchdowns) from Carolina for two draft choices prior to Tuesday's trading deadline. However, I don't trust Buffalo away from home. The Jets have blown 14-point leads to the Patriots and the Dolphins plus led the Falcons going into the fourth quarter before losing these last three weeks. "Fourth time" is the charm! The Jets are 5-0-1 ATS the last six weeks and 4-0 ATS at home in 2017. Make the Jets an 10* play.

The set-up: NFL Week 8 concludes with a MNF matchup featuring an AFC West showdown between the 3-3 Denver Broncos and the 5-2 KC Chiefs. Both teams limp in off back-to-back losses, with the Broncos coming off having been shut out last Sunday 21-0 by the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chiefs opened the 2017 season at 5-0 but then lost 19-13 at home to the Steelers, before losing a Thursday night Week 7 game at Oakland 31-30, when the Raiders scored on the game's final play.

Denver: Trevor Siemian has taken a lot of the 'heat' for the Broncos' 21-0 loss to the Chargers but he sure hasn't been helped by the fact that C.J. Anderson, after rushing for at least 81 yards in three of the team's first four games, has totaled just 61 yards on the ground over the team's last two games (both losses). Anderson had just 44 yards vs. the Chargers, with Siemian going 25 of 35 passing with an interception (only 207 yards). The Broncos are averaging only 18.0 PPG (24th) but the team's defense is holding opponents to an NFL-low 258.5 YPG! That said, Denver's allowing 19.7 PPG, which is only 11th-best.

Kansas City: The Chiefs have dropped two straight but don't look for their QB to be at fault. Alex Smith has continued to carve out a career-best season," completing 72.4 percent with 15 TD passes and zero INTs (in 228 pass attempts) for a QB rating of 120.5. TE Kelce (37 catches and & TDs) and WR Hill (36 catches & 5 TDs) have been terrific, as has rookie RB Hunt. He's run for 717 yards (5.8 YPC & 4 TDs) plus caught 25 passes for three TDs. What 'killed' KC in the last-second loss at Oakland was an 'ugly' outing from the Chiefs’ defense, which allowed 505 yards and 32 FDs. KC's defense has slacked off in 2017 (while the offense has surged), allowing 23.0 PPG (21st) on 396.3 YPG, which ranks 30th out of 32 teams (unusual for an Andy Reid-coached team).

The pick: No doubt that Denver catches KC in a bad mood after back-to-back losses plus Chiefs have had three extra days to stew about taht bitter Thursday loss at Oakland.It's also true taht Trevor Siemian's confidence could be somewhat shaken and Denver's only other option at QB is Brock Osweiler (OUCH!). However, Denver is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two teams in Kansas City.and this is a lot points for this bitter rivalry, especially considering Denver is allowing about 140 YPG less than KC on the season! Take those points and make Denver a 10* play.

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The set-up: Sunday Night football travels to Ford Field as the 5-2 Pittsburgh Steelers visit the 3-3 Detroit Lions. It seems like a 'lifetime ago' that the Steelers lost 30-9 at home against the Jags, with Big Ben throwing five INTs, including two 'pick-sixes!' He famously told reporters after the game, "Maybe I don't have it anymore?" However, the Steelers won at KC in their next game (KC's first loss of the season) and followed with a 28-14 home win over the Bengals last Sunday. All of a sudden, the Steelers look as good as any team in the AFC (NFL?). The Lions were a controversial call against the Falcons away from a 4-0 start but with back-to-back losses prior to last week's bye, Detroit welcomes the Steelers to Detroit at just 3-3.

Pittsburgh: RB LeVeon Bell had just 47 rushing yards in that loss to the Jags but he's carried the ball 32 and 35 times the last two weeks, gaining 313 yards. Big Ben has been good, not great, completing 63.2% with three TDs and just one INT in attempts. WR Brown has 12 catches for 210 yards with two TDs in the team's back-to-back wins (what a trio!); As always, Pittsburgh is one of the NFL's best defensive teams, allowing 16.6 PPG (3rd) on 258.7 YPG (2nd)

Detroit: The Lions likely appreciated the bye week, especially QB Matthew Stafford. He took last week's bye to work his way past hamstring and ankle injuries. Detroit will need to come up big here, as the 5-2 Vikings are playing the 0-7 Browns in London. Stafford threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns in the Lions' last game (a 52-38 loss at New Orleans) but also had three picks (has 12 TDs and four INTs on the season).

The pick: The good news for Detroit is that the Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a bye week but the Steelers are back to playing at an elite level. Big Ben is "far from done" and WR Antonio Brown is basically un-coverable. Play-action seems sure to work with Bell running for 134 yards or more in three of his last four games. Expect Pittsburgh to score, meaning Detroit's only chance to win is to match Pittsburgh, score for score. Make the Over an 8* play.

The set: One of the NFL's best rivalries is set for Week 8 at FedEx Field on Sunday, with an NFC East matchup between the 3-3 Dallas Cowboys and the 3-3 Washington Redskins. The Cowboys are coming off a 40-10 win at San Francisco, rebounding after losing back-to-back games versus the Rams and Packers. Meanwhile, the Redskins are off a 34-24 MNF loss in Philly against the Eagles, which left both Dallas and Washington 2 1/2 games back of the first-place 6-1 Eagles in the NFC East.

Dallas: Ezekiel Elliott has been fighting a six-game suspension in court and that drama will last at least one more week with another hearing scheduled for Monday. He's coming off his best game of the season last week at San Francisco, when he rushed for 147 yards and two TDs, while also adding a 72-yard receiving score. Elliott has 540 rushing yards (4.1 YPC) and four TDs. QB Dak Prescott is having another excellent season, passing for 234 yards and three TDs last Sunday. He's now thrown for 1,426 yards with 14 TDs and only four INTs (98.2 QB rating). He's run for 152 yards (7.6 YPC) with four TDs, as part of a Dallas ground game averaging 147.5 YPG (2nd).

Washington: Kirk Cousins played well Monday night (303 yards with three TDs) but he couldn't match Philly's Wentz (4 TDs). He enters this game completing 68.3 percent with 12 TDs and three INTs for a 107.2 QB rating. Washington's running game isn't much and the Redskins rank 11th in scoring 23.5 PPG. The defense ranks near the bottom of the league, allowing 24.5 PPG (26th).

The pick: Washington saw three offensive linemen injured against the Eagles. Left tackle Trent Williams aggravated his right knee, right tackle Morgan Moses sprained both ankles and right guard Brandon Scherff suffered a knee sprain. Center Spencer Long (knee) is also hurting. With 13 players limited or worse, the Redskins didn't even practice Wednesday, opting instead for a walk-through. That can't be good news, playing on a short week. Keeping Elliott on the field for this game is huge for Dallas, as he and Prescott continue to give the Cowboys quite a 1-2 punch. Note that Prescott's 14 TD passes through six games has only been bettered in franchise history by Don Meredith (1966) and Tony Romo (2009), who each had 15 TD passes. The Dallas D is still a little suspect but the offense, averaging 33.7 PPG the last three games, 'covers' the day. Make Dallas an 8* play.

The set-up: The 3-4 Oakland Raiders will travel to Buffalo's NewEra Field on Sunday afternoon to take on the 4-2 Bills. The Raiders were a 'sexy' pick to strongly compete for the AFC title in 2017 and after opening with a 26-16 win at Tennessee and then routing the Jets 45-10 at home, expectations were "off the chart." However, the Raiders lost four in a row, before snapping their slide with a last-second victory in a Week 7 Thursday game, 31-30 at home against the hated-Chiefs. Meanwhile, new Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott has his team at 4-2, one of NFL 2017's true surprises. The Bills edged the Bucs 30-27 last Sunday, improving to 3-0 SU at home and on the season, have gone 4-1-1 ATS in all games.

Oakland: QB Derek Carr got off to a great start but a fractured bone in his back slowed him. He returned to the lineup after missing one game but he had a mediocre game in the Raiders' 17-16 home loss to the Rams in Week 6 (171 YP / one TD / 2 INTs / 67.5 QB rating). However, he returned to form against the Chiefs, passing for 417 yards and three TDs. The vertical passing game has been a staple in Oakland since the franchise's inception but deep threat Amari Cooper had just 18 catches while averaging only 8.1 YPC on the season going into that game with KC, when he broke out with 11 catches for 210 yards and two TDs. TE Jared Cook joined the 100-yard club himself, with six catches for 107 yards. However, Oakland's running game continues to be bust (Lynch is no 'beast,' rather just a pain in the ass), as Oakland will enter this game averaging 92.9 YPG on the ground (24th). The Oakland D ranks 26th in yards allowed (360.6 per) and 18th in scoring at 22.3 PPG.

Buffalo: QB Tyrod Taylor threw for 268 yards and a TD on 20 of 33 passing, against the Bucs but Buffalo will come into this game ranking 29th (of 32 teams) with only 181.0 YPG through the air. Buffalo led the NFL in rushing last year (164.4 YPG on 5.3 YPC), led by LeSean McCoy 's 1,267 yards (5.4 YPC and 13 rushing TDs). However, the Bills were averaging only 106.6 YPG on 3.4 YPC heading into last Sunday. There was good news though, as McCoy ran for 91 yards and a pair of rushing scores plus led the team with five receptions. As a team, Buffalo ran for 173 yards, which is "much more like it!" Buffalo's D has also held its own so far in 2017, allowing 16.8 PPG to rank 4th.

The pick: Isn't it interesting that new Bills hed coach Sean McDermott has been coaxing a lot more out of the Buffalo “D” than Rex Ryan ("the defensive genius") did the past two years! Buffalo's revamped 2ndary has nine INTs, which in concert with a mistake-free offense (only three giveaways), leaves Buffalo with an NFL-best plus-10 TO margin. Make the Bills a 10* play.

The set-up: The NFL's latest London game kicks off Sunday's Week 8 schedule of games at Twickenham Stadium. The 5-2 Minnesota Vikings and the 0-7 Cleveland Browns wil lstart at 9:30 ET, as the Browns will play a regular-season game in London for the first time in franchise history. The Vikings enter on a three-game winning streak and sit atop the NFC North and with Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers likely out for the season, are 'sniffing' a division title. For the Browns, they are off an 'ugly' 1-15 season and there has been no indication so far, that too much will be different here in 2017. The Browns have led in a game only once this season, 7-3 over the Jets in the fifth game, and that advantage lasted only 5:06 before New York moved ahead for good.

Minnesota: The Vikings have topped 30 points just once all season, averaging a modest 20.9 PPG (19th). However, Minnesota's defense has compensated, allowing 17.0 PPG (5th) on 283.0 YPG (4th). Minnesota's offense has seen QB Sam Bradford (knee) in and out of the lineup and excellent rookie RB Dalvin Cook (354 YR on 4.8 YPC) was lost for the season with a torn ACL in Week 4. However, Case Keenum is 3-2 as a starter and relieved Bradford in a comeback 20-17 win over the Bears in Week 5. RBs Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon have stepped up since Cook was lost for the season. Again, the Vikings’ defense has been terrific, holding four straight opponents under 275 total yards, after allowing a season-low 208 yards in a 24-16 win over Baltimore last week.

Cleveland:The QB history of the Browns (for quite awhile now) has been a complete disaster. Rookie DeShone Kizer has just three TD passes and 11 INTs (awful 47.8 QB rating), while Kevin Hogan is no better. He has five INTs in way fewer attempts and owns a higher interception percentage than Kizer. The Browns don't own much of a running game (92.3 YPG ranks 25th) and the team's 14.7 PPG is the second-lowest in the NFL. The defense allows 304.7 YPG (9th) but with all the turnovers putting the defense in tough spots, Cleveland is allowing 24.1 PPG, which ranks 24th.

The pick: The Vikings have not scored much and neither have the Browns. However, these London games always create a different atmosphere, and with a low total, the Over is an 8* play

The set-up: Miami's 2017 season began with the Dolphins having to postpone their Week 1 game with Tampa Bay due to Hurricane Irma. It was rescheduled for Week 11 when both the Dolphins and Bucs had a bye week. That means both Miami and Tampa Bay will play 16 consecutive weeks, not the best of circumstances. However, winning their last three games, after a 1-2 start, sure has the Dolphins in a much better mood. While Miami is streaking, the Ravens' season has gone 'south.' Baltimore opened 2-0 but enters this contest having lost four of their last five, leaving them 3-4 (already two games back of the Steelers in the AFC North)..

Miami: The Dolphins enter off wins over the Titans, Falcons and Jets. In that 31-28 win over New York in Week 7, Miami Matt Moore replaced an injured Jay Cutler and aided the comeback going 13 of 21 for 188 yards with two TDs and one INT (102.9 QB rating). That's much better than what Miami has seen from Cutler, who has averaged a woeful 150.3 YPG passing with seven TDs and five INTs, posting a 78.8 QB rating (approaching Flacco range!). Jay Ajayi is the leading rusher with 442 yards but the team averages only 81.7 YPG on 3.3 YPC. Defensively, Miami has been good, allowing 308.2 YPG (10th) and 18.7 PPG (7th).

Baltimore: QB Joe Flacco missed Baltimore's entire preseason but the Ravens went 4-0. In retrospect, maybe that was a bad sign? I noted that Baltimore started the 2017 season 2-0 but Flacco sure wasn't the reason, as he passed for only 338 yards with three TDs and two INTs. Baltimore's defense allowed just 10 points those first two games and let's also note that the wins came over the Bengals and Browns (now a combined 2-11). Baltimore's defense has allowed 27.6 PPG in losing four of five and Flacco has been awful, with two TDs and six INTs. On the season, he has five TD passes and eight INTs, as Baltimore ranks 32nd in passing yards (157.4 YPG), with Flacco's QB rating of 70.0 ranking 31st among 32 starting QBs. Baltimore's running game is middle-of-the-pack and its rushing D ranks dead last, allowing 145.3 YPG.

The pick: The Ravens season is surely at a 'tipping point,' as after this home game with the Dolphins, they'll play at Tennessee, have a bye week and then play at Green Bay. Lose here and any outside postseason hopes are all but dead, just halfway through the 2017 season. Matt Moore led Miami back from a 14-point deficit with a 17-point fourth quarter but John Elway, he isn't. He's a journeyman who is preparing to make his 29th career regular-season start. He's 15-13 as a starter and his career QB rating is 82.5. He'll take the field for a team unable to run the ball (see above), as the Dolphins still do not own a rushing TD. The Dolphins have been 'playing with fire' in their recent comeback wins but get 'burnt' here in Week. 8 Make Baltimore a 10* play.

The set-up: Are the Eagles the NFC's best team? They just may be and a win tonight over NFC East rival Washington would only add more 'fuel' to that claim. Philadelphia is 5-1, losing only at KC, while owning wins over the Redskins, Giants, Chargers, Cardinals and Panthers. The Eagles beat the Redskins back in Week 1, 30-17 at Washington and now get a return match with them here at Lincoln Financial Field on “Monday Night Football.” Washington comes in 3-2 and a victory would leave the Redskins just a half-game out of first place in the NFC East but a loss would mean both Washington and Dallas would be 3-3, while Philadelphia would own a commanding 6-1 record, 2 1/2 games clear of its division rivals.

Washington: QB Kirk Cousins is having another fine season completing 66.5% for 1,334 yards with nine TDs and just two INTs (106.4 QB rating). However, his worst game of the 2017 season came in Washington's Week 1 home loss to the Eagles, when Cousins completed only 57.5% with one TD and one INT, earning a QB rating of only 72.9. The running game does not have a player with more than 175 yards on the season but still ranks 10th, averaging 122.8 YPG on the ground. RB Rob Kelley is dealing with an ankle injury, which could mean the bulk of playing time will go to rookie Samaje Perine and Chris Thompson, who already has recorded two 100-yard receiving performances and made four catches for 52 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. Cousins does come in off a strong three-game stretch and now leads the NFC with that 106.4 QB rating. WRs Terrelle Pryor and Jamison Crowder continue to struggle but the TE tandem of Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis has combined for 29 catches. Defensively, the Eagles rank 12th in total yards (316.0 per) but not as high in points allowed (22.6 PPG ranks 19th).

Philadelphia: Wentz is off to a strong start in his sophomore season, with 13 TDs and just three INTs (99.6 QB rating). RB LeGarrette Blount (390 yards on 5.6 YPC) is starting to make his presence felt while a a very good OL helps the running game check in at 132.5 YPG (4th-best in the NFL). TE Ertz has 34 catches and WR Agholor has 20, with both owning four TD grabs apiece. Philly's rush D will surely test Washington's running game, as the Eagles are allowing an NFL-low 65.7 YPG on the ground.

The pick: Recent series history favors Washington, as Jay Gruden had beaten Philly five in a row prior to losing in Week 1 (Washington self-destructed with four giveaways). Also, the Redskins come in on an 8-3 ATS run as a road dog and that includes that fluke non-cover at KC in Week 4's MNF game! However, I believe the Eagles are "for real." They have won four straight (covered the last three) since losing at KC, while averaging 28.8 PPG, as Philadelphia has now scored at least 20 points in 10 straight games, the league's longest active streak. Wentz is proving to be a cool, calm and collected leader. Make the Eagles a 10* play.

The set-up: It's a Super Bowl rematch at Gillette Stadium on Sunday night (NBC), as the Atlanta Falcons take on the New England Patriots. The Falcons led 21-3 at the half of last year's Super Bowl and 28-3 in the third quarter of last season's game. However, the Patriots engineered the greatest comeback in the history of the NFL's 'ultimate game,' leaving the Falcons and their fans stunned with a 34-28 OT final which produced the fifth championship of the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era (or should that read, the Brady/Belichick era?). The 2017 versions of the teams meet Sunday night and each team has reason to "not be confident!' Atlanta opened 3-0 but back-to-back losses to the Bills and Dolphins leaves them just 3-2 (blew a 17-0 halftime lead at home to Miami last Sunday). The Pats are 4-2 but easily could have lost at home to Houston and last Sunday, were the beneficiaries of a highly-controversial fumble/touchback call in their 24-17 win at the Jets.

Atlanta: Matt Ryan was deservedly the MVP of the 2016 season, throwing for 4,944 yards with 38 TDs and seven INTs for a 117.1 QB rating. However, after five games, he's got a 6-6 ratio and a QB rating of just 87.3. The RB tandem of Freeman (353 YR on 4.5 YPC with 5 TDs plus 11 catches) and Coleman (213 YR on 5.6 YPC with 1 TD plus 14 catches) is still potent but the Falcons' offense has looked 'off!' Atlanta led the NFL in scoring (33.8 PPG) in 2016, while finishing second in total yards (415.8 YPG). Here in 2017, those numbers are 24.2 PPG (12th) on 378.4 YPG (5th). The defense has allowed about 60 YPG more than in 2016 and 25,4 PPG, after allowing 21.8 PPG last season.

New England. What to make of the Pats in 2017? Brady is still awesome, with 13 TDs and just two INTs (106.9 QB rating), leading an offense averaging 28.7 PPG (5th-best). The Pats lead the nFL in passing (309.8 YPG), which is the reason the team also owns the most YPG (412.0 per), in the entire NFL. However, no team has allowed more overall yards (440.7 per) or passing yards (324,8 per) than New England. All six opposing QBs have thrown for 300-plus yards against New England (never happened before), as the Pats' pass D has allowed 14 TDs and has just five INTs (104.4 opposing QB rating is third-worst in the NFL).

The pick: No way Atlanta can be brimming with confidence after it incredibly blew a 17-0 halftime lead in its 20-17 home upset loss to previously-struggling Miami last Sunday. Add to that, the fact that the Pats lost their most recent home game (33-30 in Week in Week 4 to that Panthers) and that New England hasn’t dropped consecutive home games since 2008. The poinstspread is surely not much of an impost but this New England team is just "not right" here in 2017. The Falcons own a much-better balanced offense and neither team's defense seems capable of stopping the opposing team's offense. I WANT the points. Make Atlanta an 8* play.

The set-up: Two bitter AFC North rivals square off Sunday at Pittsburgh's Heinz Field. The Cincinnati Bengals opened the 2017 season losing two games at home (scored only nine points) but a Week 3 OT loss at Green Bay (just 27-24), helped turn their season around. The Bengals have won at Cincy 31-7 and then back home against Buffalo (20-16) since, so they'll have a chance to get back to .500 with a win here against the hated-Steelers. Pittsburgh will be looking to maintain its place atop the AFC North (curently 4-20, after handing KC its first loos of the 2017 season last Sunday on the road. Pittsburgh won 19-13 at Arrowhead, holding the Chiefs to just 251 yards of total offense. Meanwhile, RB Le’Veon Bell had his best game of 2017, rushing for 179 yards and a TD, while Antonio Brown led Pittsburgh with 8 catches for 155 yards and the team’s lone receiving TD (now there's a shocker!). As for Big Ben, he bounced back from a four-INT game in Week 5, by completing 17 of 25 for 252 yards (one TD and one INT).

Cincinnati: The Bengals started slowly offensively in 2017 (see above) and remain low in most offensive categories. Cincy ranks 30th with 16.8 YPG on 311.0 YPG, which ranks 24th. QB Andy Dalton had a 'nightmare' of a first game (four INTs and a lost fumble) but competed 80.7% against Creen Bay and Cleveland (6 TDs / 0 INTs), before throwing two INTs in the win over Buffalo in Week 5. He will eventually need help from a running game averaging just 84.0 YPG (28th). Keeping Cincy 'alive' is a defense which ranks second in scoring (16.2 PPG) and total yards (262.8 YPG).

Pittsburgh: No one really bought Big Ben's "Maybe I don't have it anymore" lament and looking around the AFC, isn't Pittsburgh as likely as any team to be playing in a second straight AFC championship game. Big Ben's a proven winner and in Bell and Brown, the Steelers may just have the best RB and WR in all of the NFL (name a better set of teammates!). Pittsburgh's offense will be just fine by year's end and as always, the defense is near the top in most categories. How about 4th in points allowed (17.0 PPG) and 3rd in yards allowed (272.0 YPG)

The pick: Big Ben is in his 14th year (hard to believe) and while it's been slow-sledding, expect him to be just fine, working with Bell and Brown. As for the Bengals, the team's 'ugly' 0-2 start is behind them and a Week 6 bye may have been "just what the doctor ordered." Two defenses usually spell 'under' but "not so fast!" You have two QBs more than capable of putting up points and in Brown and A.J. Green, two of the NFL's very best WRs, as well. Also, there is talk that the bye week has allowed WR John Ross (Cincy's No. 1 pick in the 2017 draft out of Washington) enough time to get over a knee injury that bothered him all season. Surprise, this game is headed over. Make it an 8* play.

The set-up: The Carolina Panthers will take a 4-2 record (good enough to lead the NFC South) to Soldier Field on Sunday when they face the Chicago Bears, who come in 2-4 (Packers and Vikings lead the NFC North at 4-2, while the Lions are 3-3). The Panthers lost their Thursday night Week 6 showdown 28-23 with the Eagles (both teams entered at 4-1), as Carson Wentz out-played Cam Newton, throwing three TD passes without an INT. Newton attempted 52 passes and had three INTs against just one TD. The Bears come in off a 27-24 OT win last Sunday at Baltimore, as Chicago's Mitchell Trubisky, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, earned his first win as an NFL starter. Trubisky completed just 8 of 16 passes for 113 yards but didn't throw an interception (he did lose one of his two fumbles) and had one TD pass.

Carolina: Newton was Carolina's lone offensive producer against the Eagles, as ran for 71 yards (on 11 attempts), while the rest of the team had just nine rushing yards on 14 carries. That won't work! Newton was forced to throw 52 times, completing 28 for 239 yards with one TD, three INTs and a QB rating of 48.5. That was quite a drop off from him completing 77.4 percent for 671 yards with six TDs and just one INT in back-to-back road wins at New England and Detroit. The good news so far is that Carolina's D ranks 4th in total yards (280.0 YPG) and 9th in points allowed, at 20.3 PPG (down from 25.1 PPG in 2016).

Chicago: Mitch Trubisky will make his third career start in this one. He earned his first victory last week but has passed for only 241 yards in his two starts, with two TDs and an interception (owns a 73.3 QB rating). He has averaged only 20.5 passes per game, as the Bears continue to rely heavily on the ground game, which is No. 1 in the NFC and No. 3 in the NFL at 136.0 YPG. RB Jordan Howard has amassed 495 rushing yards (167 yards in Week 6) and four TDs through his his first six games. The Bears are averaging just 17.5 PPG (28th) and that won't get the job done with the defense allowing 24.7 PPG (25th).

The pick: The Bears come into this contest 0-7 SU and just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win (beat the Ravens in Week 6), while the Panthers are 3-0 SU & ATS on the road in 2017 (one of five NFL teams that are unbeaten away from home in 2017). Cam Newton vs. Mitch Trubisky seems like a total mismatch plus Chicago's rushing attack will get a severe test against Carolina's rush D, which comes in allowing only 83.3 YPG to rank 5th-best in the NFL. Carolina has yet to allow a 100-yard rusher this season. Make the Panthers a 10* play.

The set-up: Long-time AFC East rivals the NY Jets and Miami Dolphins meet Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium. The 3-3 Jets are coming off a controversial 24-17 home loss to the Pats in Week 6, while the Dolphins improved to 3-2 with their best effort of the season, a 20-17 comeback win on the road over the defending NFC champion Atlanta Falcons. The Jets squandered a 14-0 lead but were hurt when an apparent TD was ruled a fumble and a touchback on a still-controversial call, eventually losing 24-17. The Dolphins fell behind the Falcons 17-0 at halftime last Sunday but somehow came back to win 2017.

NY Jets: "I think the whole stadium felt (the call) was wrong," Jets safety Jamal Adams told the media in New York. However, the Jets know they have to move on. Journeyman QB Josh McCown completed 75.0% of his throws in the Jets' three-game winning streak and then passed for 354 yards in the loss to the Pats. McCown is going to need more help from New York's "no-name" RBs, as New York ranks a modest 18th in averaging 105.2 YPG on the ground. Overall, the Jets average just 318.7 YPG (21st) and ranks 26th in scoring at 18.2 PPG. The Jets' D is allowing 358.0 YPG (24th) but only 21.7 PPG, which ranks 12th

Miami: The Dolphins took the field for the second half of last week's game in Atlanta, down 17-0. It continued a sad trend for Miami, as the team's offense had scored just one non-garbage-time TD over the past 15 quarters. However, Miami scored two TDs in the third quarter, before Cody Parkey added two FGs in the fourth quarter to get Miami the "W." Miami’s offense had been dismal until its third-quarter revival against the Falcons, although it was good news that RB Jay Ajayi broke out of a slump with 130 rushing yards last week. QB Jay Cutler's "un-retirement" has not gone well, as he has just five TD passes and four INTs with Miami ranking 32nd in passing offense with 155.4 YPG (Cutler's QB rating is a poor 75.2). Defensively, the Dolphins have been very good, allowing just 16.8 PPG to rank 3rd.

The pick: It's just Week 7 but this is the second meeting of 2017 for these division rivals. The teams met at MetLife Stadium in Week 3, when the Dolphins were a six-point road favorite and the Jets won handily, 20-6. Both teams have greatly surpassed preseason expectations, with both defenses showing well. However, despite Miami's remarkable second-half comeback last week, they come into this game ranked last in scoring (12.2 PPG), last in total offense (242.8 YPG), last in passing yards (155.4 YPG) and 27th in rushing offense (87.4 YPG). How does one lay points with this team? In fact, Miami is a money-burning 4-12 ATS the last 16 times when favored, going back to the latter part of 2014. Make the Jets an 8* play.

The set-up: The Chiefs welcomed the Steelers to Arrowhead Stadium last Sunday as the NFL's lone unbeaten team at 5-0 (also 5-0 ATS). Kansas City entered last week's game averaging nearly 33 points through its first five victories but its offense was bottled up (held to 13 points on 251 yards) while its 27th-ranked run defense (130.7 YPG) was stampeded for 194 yards.The Raiders were a 'sexy' pick to strongly compete for the AFC title in 2017 and after opening with a 26-16 win at Tennessee and then routing the Jets 45-10 at home, expectations were "off the chart." However, as the Raiders get set to host one of their most-hated rivals (from the days of the original AFL), Oakland will be trying to snap a four-game losing streak.

Kansas City: QB Alex Smith did not have his best game of 2017 in KC's 19-13 loss to the Steelers but he does enter this contest having completed 72.9 percent of his passes
with 12 TDs and zero INTs (in 192 attempts), earning a 119.2 QB rating. Rookie RB Kareem Hunt (630 YR on 5.9 YPC) ran for a season-low 21 yards (on nine attempts) vs. Pittsburgh but had five receptions for 89 yards to become the first rookie in league history to amass at least 100 scrimmage yards in each of his team’s first six games. Multi-threat receiver Tyreek Hill (30 catches) injured his neck in Sunday's game and it was feared he might have a concussion but the team pronounced him good to go. TE Kelce leads with 33 receptions plus Hunt has 21 catches. KC's defense has allowed 378.2 YPG (29th) but has fared much better in the most-important defensive stat, points allowed (21.7 PPG, which ranks 13th).

Oakland: QB Derek Carr got off to a great start but a fractured bone in his back has slowed him. He returned to the lineup after missing one game last Sunday but he had another mediocre game in the Raiders' 17-16 home loss to the Rams (171 YP / one TD / 2 INTs / 67.5 QB rating) and now has four interceptions in his past three contests, after tossing only six picks in the entire 2016 season.
The vertical passing game has been a staple in Oakland since the franchise's inception but deep threat Amari Cooper has just 18 catches while averaging only 8.1 YPC on the season. RB Marshawn Lynch was expected to be a huge boost to the running game but his 63 yards week represented a season-high. Lynch has just 257 YR on 3.7 YPC, with Oakland ranking 24th in rushing yards at 93.7 YPG. Oakland's defense is allowing 349.8 YPG (23rd) but a more modest 21.0 YPG (12th), although only three teams in the NFL have fewer than the Raiders' 11 sacks!

The pick: The Chiefs travel to Oakland Thursday night, looking to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time since October of 2015. What's more, the Chiefs have won nine straight road games. The Chiefs are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 meetings in Oakland. That said, I think we'll get an "all-out" effort from the Raiders in this one. However, in the team's four-game skid, Oakland has scored 10, 10, 17 and 16 points (that's just 13.3 PPG). That brings in this stat..."the under" is 18-6 in the last 24 meeting between these hated rivals. Make the under a 10* play in this one.

The set-up: Preseason expectations were running high in Tennessee, after the Titans went 9-7 in 2016, losing the AFC South to the Texans on a tie-breaker. The Titans 'laid an egg' in Week 1 in a 26-16 home loss to the Raiders but rebounded with wins at Jacksonville and home to Seattle, to get back on track. However, the Titans were pulverized 57-14 in Week 4 at Houston and followed with a 16-10 loss in Miami last week, while seeing starting QB Marcus Mariota go down with a hamstring injury. The Colts know all to well about an injury to their starting QB, as Andrew Luck has yet to see action in 2017 and does not have an exact timetable to return from his shoulder woes. However, Indy has seen its offense take significant strides as Jacoby Brissett has gotten acclimated under center in place, with the Colts splitting his four games as the team's starting QB (Colts are 2-3, overall).

Indianapolis: Brissett threw for a career-high 314 yards and rushed for a TD last week as the Colts collected their second victory against a win-less team with a 26-23 overtime triumph over San Francisco (also beat the now 0-6 Browns at home in Week 2). T.Y. Hilton had seven catches for 177 yards last week. Rookie RB Marlon Mack has given the Colts' running game a boost, with a 22-yard TD plus his 35-yard run set up Adam Vinatieri's game-winning 51-yard FGl in overtime. Veteran Frank Gore moved into seventh place in NFL history with 13,304 yards rushing. Still, the Colts average only 100.0 YPG on the ground (20th) and their 19.4 PPG ranks only 22nd. The defense is a big problem, as the Colts rank last by allowing 31.8 PPG and 30th (of 32 teams) in total D (393.4 YPG), as well as passing yards (294.0 YPG).

Tennessee: The Titans may be staring at another game without Marcus Mariota (hamstring) in its lineup. Mariota is hopeful that he can play. Matt Cassel came in after he got hurt last Sunday at Miami and was 21 of 32 for 141 yards (no completion longer than 17 yards) and was sacked six times! Tennessee's bread and butter has been its rushing attack but DeMarco Murray has just 89 yards on the ground in his last two contests, as Miami limited the team to only 69 yards on 20 carries last week. The Titans still rank 7th in rushing on the season, at 124.8 YPG. The defense (not helped by allowing Houtson 57 points in Week 4), is one spot behind the Colts in points allowed, at 28.4 per game (31st).

The pick: It's fairly likely that ESPN would not have picked this as a Monday night game if it knew that Matt Cassel and Jacoby Brissett could be the opposing QBs. However, it seems as if Mariota will be able to play and there should be plenty of motivation on the Tennessee side, to get its season headed back in the right direction plus to end what has to be a wildly frustrating 11-game losing streak against the Colts (mostly at the hands of Andrew Luck). Brissett has surely been an excellent pickup (savior?) for Indy but let's not forget his only two wins have come over the Browns and 49ers, who check in a combined 0-12 in 2017. Make Tennessee a 10* play.

The set-up: The NY Giants are playing in prime time for the third time in six weeks, when they welcome the Broncos to MetLife Stadium on NBC's Sunday night football. The Giants, who went 11-5 last season, have opened 0-5 and are practically guaranteed to miss the postseason for the fifth time in six years since the team won the Super Bowl at the end of the 2011 season. The Broncos are off a bye week and check in at 3-1, with all three wins coming at home (2-0-1 ATS).

Denver: The Broncos are hardly a dominant team, losing 26-16 at Buffalo in Week 3 and needing a last-second interception to beat Oakland prior to the bye. However, Denver played its beat game of the season here at home in Week 2, dominating the Cowboys 42-17. QB Trevor Siemian is completing 62.7% with seven TDs and four INTs (89.0 QB rating). C.J. Anderson has run for 330 yard, leading a running game averaging 143.0 YPG (3rd). There is nothing wrong with the Broncos' defense, which is allowing a league-low 260.8 YPG, including ranking No. 1 against the run (50.8 YPG). Denver is allowing 18.5 PPG to rank 7th.

NY Giants: Eli Manning receives most of the 'heat' but the Giants have virtually no running game, averaging 77.8 YPG (30th). RB Paul Perkins was unable to practice Wednesday, leaving Orleans Darkwa and rookie Wayne Gallman to lead a backfield that has done little. Eli is completing 67.8% but with eight TDs and five INTs (89.1 QB rating). Week 5 was not good to him, as he lost his three top WRs to ankle injuries, including Odell Beckham Jr, possibly for the year. Manning himself was examined for neck issues after the game.
The defense was second in the NFL by allowing 17.6 PPG in 2016 but TY's team is allowing 24.4 PPG (24th). It can't possibly be good news that the Giants suspended one of their top defensive players in cornerback Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie. He was apparently upset over his role with the team after being pulled from the Giants' 27-22 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers last Sunday, abruptly left the practice facility, and coach Ben McAdoo suspended him.

The pick: Eli's receiving corps is devastated and he has no running game, as he looks to take on an outstanding Denver defense, coming off a bye week. As for Denver's offense, excluding the team's 42-point outburst against Dallas, Denver is averaging 18.7 PPG. This game has "under, written all over it!" Make the Under an 8* play.

The set-up: The University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona is the site of this Week 6 game between the 2-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the 2-3 Arizona Cardinals. The Bucs played a Week 5 home game vs. the Pats on Thursday night but lost 19-14, partly because PK Nick Folk missed three FGs. The Cardinals are hoping to climb back to .500, after a 34-7 loss last Sunday at Philadelphia.

Tampa Bay: First things first. Folk's first season with Tampa Bay is over as he was placed on injured reserve with a "minor injury" classification, meaning the team must release him once he becomes healthy. Replacing Folk will be Patrick Murray, who appeared in two games for Cleveland last season after converting 20-of-24 field-goal attempts for the Buccaneers in 2014 (Heeee's back!). The Bucs need more consistency from QB Winston. He's got four TDs and zero INTs with a 103.6 QB rating in Tampa Bay's two wins but has three TDs and three INTs with an 83.6 QB rating in the team's two losses. The Bucs average just 86.0 YPG on the ground (27th) but it's good news that RB Doug Martin returned from his suspension vs. the Pats and gained 74 yards on 13 carries

Arizona: The Cards allowed 419 yards of total offense at Philadelphia and checks in allowing 25.0 PPG (27th) on the season. QB Carson Palmer and the Arizona offense ranks second in passing yards (289.0 YPG) but the team is averaging only 16.2 PPG (29th). One of the issues is the NFL's werst rushing attack, as Arizona has averaged 51.8 YPG to rank dead-last, as does the team's 2.6 YPC average! Arizona obtained 2012 NFL MVP Adrian Peterson from New Orleans on Tuesday with hopes that the 32-year-old will resemble his former self after enduring a miserable four-game tenure with the Saints (ran for 81 yards on 27 carries, averaging 3.0 YPC).

The pick: Arizona is 2-3 with its two wins coming in OT victories at Indy and at home vs. San Francisco. Those two teams are a combined 2-8 SU and Arizona failed to cover either win. That means the Cards enter this game 0-5 ATS on the season. Adding insult to injury, the Cardinals had 13 players listed on their injury report earlier in the week and nine of them were starters, including All-Pro cornerback Patrick Peterson with a sore quadriceps. This marks only Tampa Bay's second road game of 2017 but it should be noted that the Bucs were 6-2 ATS on the road in 2016. The Cards have a 'washed-up' QB in Palmer and have now added a 'washed-up' RB in Adrian Peterson. That's hardly a good 'daily double!' Make the Bucs are 8* play.

The set-up: It's a Week 6 game featuring AFC East rivals at MetLife Stadium this Sunday, as the New England Patriots visit the New York Jets. Who could have ever predicted in Week 1 that both teams would be 3-2 heading into this contest, meaning the winner will take the early AFC East lead. this contest. After all, the Pats are defending Super Bowl champs and the Jets, after a summer 'fire sale,' seemed destined to be one of a handful of teams that woiuld be in teh mix for teh NFL 2018 Daraft's No. 1 overall pick. However, the Pats were upended in the 2017 season-opener at home by the Chiefs and need to eke out an 'ugly' 189-14 win in Week 5 at Tampa Bay just to reach 3-2. Meanwhile, after opening 0-2, the Jets have gone 3-0 SU & ATS the last three weeks, with the team's defense holding those three opponents to just 40 combined points (13.3 PPG).

New England: There's nothing wrong with Tom Brady, as he's completing 68.2% with 11 TDs and just one interception, giving him a QB rating of 112.0. The Pats rank first in passing (320.4 YPG), the main reason New England ranks first overall in total yards (419.4 YPG), while checking in at third in scoring at 29.6 PPG. Brady's accomplished all this with injuries to some of his key receivers plus playing behind an OL that's allowed him to be sacked 16 times. Brady has also has to make up for a defense, which has been unable to stop anyone, particularly through the air, allowing an NFL-worst 323.4 YPG (12 TDs allowed with just three INTs for a an opposing QB rating of 109.2). The Pats allow 28.4 PPG to rank 30th.

NY Jets: There was talk the Jets would threaten the Browns and that the loser of their Week 5 meeting could go 0-16, after two weeks. However, after losing 45-10 in Oakland in Week 2, the Jets have managed to win and cover three straight. Granted, their 'victims' have been the Dolphins, Jags and Browns (Cleveland will make a strong run at 0-16!) but still, allowing just 13.3 PPG in their winning streak is impressive. Josh McCown, a journeyman who toiled for the Browns last season, has completed 63 of 84 passes in the winning streak (that's 75.0%), twice recording QB ratings of better than 100.0. The Jets don't have a big-name RB but still have maneged to average 111.4 YPG to rank 13th.

The pick: The Pats will take the field looking for their 11th win in 13 regular-season meetings against Jets. OK, Brady is arguably the best QB in NFL history, winning five Super Bowls while playing for only the New England Patriots since he was drafted in the sixth round. He has a 186-54 career regular-season record and 25-9 mark in the playoffs. Meanwhile, McCown has been on 10 different NFL rosters since he was drafted in the third round in 2002. His career record as a starter is 21-44 career record and he has never sniffed the playoffs. No contest, right? Well, New England has allowed at least 33 points in three of five games this year and even in last weeks' 19-14 win, Winston threw for 334 yards against the Pats' defense-less secondary, plus needed Buc PK Nick Folk to miss three FGs to avoid another loss. McCown will do damage to New England's secondary, just like every QB has so far this season. However, Brady will 'light up' the Jets' D, as well. Make the Over an 8* play.

The set-up: The Lions opened the 2017 season 2-0 but have lost two of their last three and head to New Orleans at 3-2 to take on the rejuvenated Saints. New Orleans opened its season with double-digit losses at Minnesota and home to New England but then shocked the Panthers 34-13 in Carolina in Week 3, before beating the Dolphins 20-0 in a Week 4 London game. The first bye week was in Week 5 and the Saints were one of four teams getting an early rest. The Saints return to the playing field on Sunday and welcome a Lions team to the Superdome but the Lions have beaten the Saints in each of the last three seasons, 24-23 in Detroit in 2014, then 35-27 and 28-13 the last two years here in New Orleans.

Detroit: The Lions' plus-9 turnover margin had been a key to the team's 3-1 start but they couldn't force a TO against the Panthers last Sunday, as Cam Newton ripped Detroit's pass D for 355 yards and three TDs. QB Matthew Stafford is completing 64.6% with nine TDs and just one INT but the Lions rank just 23rd in passing (200.6 YPG). RB Ameer Abdullah had a career-high 94 yards in the Week 4 win at Minnesota but has done little in the team's other four games, averaging less than 50 yards per. As a team, Detroit is averaging just 87.6 YPG on the ground to rank 26th. Detroit has allowed a modest 19.4 PPG (11th) but a concern, after Newton ripped open the team's secondary, is that the Lions are starting to look like the pass D which allowed a historic (not in a good way) 72.7% completion rate in 2016, with 33 TD passes allowed, just 10 INTs and an opposing QB rating of 106.5 (NFL-worst in 2016).

New Orleans. Drew Brees has watched the game film of Newton picking apart that Detroit pass D and he must be salivating. Brees hasn't thrown an interception in 152 attempts so far in 2017, while tossing eight TDs passes and earning a QB rating of 108.3. The "unhappy" Adrian Peterson was traded to Arizona this week, which should make things more pleasant on the sidelines, give Mark Ingram a jolt of confidence plus get more "PT" for impressive rookie QB Alvin Kamara. Let's also note the incredible turnaround of New Orleans' pass D. New Orleans allowed a league-worst 777 passing yards (along with six TD passes) in opening 0-2 but in holding the Panthers and Dolphins to a combined 13 points in Week 3 & 4 wins, the Saints shut down Newton (167 yards with no TD passes and three INTs for a QB rating of 43.8) and Cutler (164 yards and one INT for a QB rating of 71.1).

The pick. It's just not Brees who has been mistake-free, as the Saints are the only team to have no yet committed a turnover in 2017. In the process, they have become just the third NFL team since 1935 to open the season without a TO through its first four games (pretty heady stuff). Sure, the Saints are only 11-14 at the Superdome since 2014 but with a younger, more talented defense, there are signs the team is beginning to rise above mediocrity on that side of the ball. As for the Brees-led offense, there is nothing mediocre about them! Make New Orleans a 10* play.

The set-up: The Philadelphia Eagles opened the 2016 season 3-0 in September, behind rookie QB Carson Wentz. However, Wentz and his team cooled off fairly quickly, losing nine of their next 11 games, before ending the season with back-to-back wins in Weeks 16 and 17 to finish 7-9. The Eagles are at it again in 2017, opening 4-1 and the question is, is this real or is it Memorex? We may get our answer Thursday night, when the Eagles travel to Bank of America Stadium to take on the 4-1 Carolina Panthers. The Panthers were 15-1 in 2015 and made it all the way to the Super Bowl but fell from first to last in the NFC South in 2016, going 6-10. However, this year's team and particularly QB Cam Newton, are beginning to look much more like the 2015 team than last year's sad-sack unit. Again, we may just learn something about the Panthers here on Thursday night, as well.

Philadelphia: Wentz continues to make converts of the non-believers, as he's leading an offense averaging 27.4 PPG (7th). He's completing 62.1% with 10 TDs and just three INTs (97.7 QB rating), while the Eagles rank 8th in passing (259.0 YPG). RB LeGarrette Blount is starting to make an impact (323 yards rushing) and the Eagles' 138.8 YPG on the ground ranks 5th. The defense is allowing 19.8 PPG (13th) and excels in stopping opponents' ground game, allowing just 62.8 YPG (2nd-best). The problem against Carolina and Newton may be, that Philly's pass D allows 283.2 YPG, which ranks 29th of 32 teams.

Carolina: The Panthers opened 2-0 but were hardly impressive in doing so, beating the sad-sack 49ers 23-3 and the Bills 9-3. When Carolina lost 34-13 at home to the then 0-2 Saints 34-13 in Week 3, with Newton passing for just 167 yards and throwing three INTs (QB rating of 43.8), critics were everywhere. However, what a difference a couple of weeks can make. Newton led the Panthers to a 33-30 win at New England in Week 5 and then at Detroit last Sunday, 27-24. He's earned QB ratings of 130.8 and 141.8, while throwing for 671 yards and six TDs (just one INT in 61 attempts). He has a trio of quality receivers in Kelvin Benjamin, Ed Dickson and Devin Funchess (not to mention rookie RB Christian McCaffrey's 27 catches) but Carolina's ground game needs to improve (its 98.6 YPG ranks only 19th). Defensively, Carolina is allowing only 274.0 YPG (3rd) and just 18.8 PPG (9th), down from 25.1 PPG in 2016.

The pick: All but four of last week's 14 games were decided by six points or fewer but Philadelphia was one of the exceptions, routing the Cardinals 34-7. Philly fans are clearly riding high but while the Eagles' bandwagon is becoming crowded let's insert here that Philly's current three-game win streak has come over the Giants, Chargers and Cardinals, who are a combined 2-13 SU. Then again, here's the other side of that. The Eagles only loss of the 2017 season is 27-20 at the Chiefs, who are 5-0 SU and ATS. Love what Newton's done the last two weeks but the Panthers are 0-2 ATS at home in 2017 (averaging just 11.0 PPG), after going 3-5 ATS at home in 2016. I'm taking the points and making the Eagles an 8* play.

The set-up: It's a MNF game featuring two teams from what was once the NFL's "Black and Blue Division," now the NFC North. The 2-2 Minnesota Vikings will visit Chicago's Soldier Field on ESPN to take on the 1-3 Bears. The Vikings are hoping that Sam Bradford is ready to return as the team's starting QB for this one (after sustaining a knee injury in Minnesota's season opener), while the Bears will hand the starting QB job over to Mitchell Trubisky, the second overall pick of the 2017 draft out of North Carolina. He'll make his NFL debut after off-season acquisition Mike Glennon committed four turnovers in Chicago's 35-14 loss to Green Bay on Sep. 28.

Minnesota: The Vikings' two wins this season have come at home (29-19 over the Saints and 34-17 over the Bucs), while Minnesota has lost 26-9 at Pittsburgh and last week at home to the Lions, 14-7. Keenum has completed 61.0% for 755 yards with three TDs and zero INTs (94.4 QB rating) but he's not Bradford. The former Heisman-winner and No. 1 overall draft pick set an NFL single-season record by completing 71.6% of his passes in 2016 and against New Orlean in Week 1, connected on 27 of 32 (that's 84.0%) for 346 yards with three TDs and did not throw a pick (143.0 QB rating). The Vikings not only fell to Detroit last week but also lost rookie RB Dalvin Cook (Florida State) to a torn left ACL that will cost him the remainder of the season. Cook had rushed for 354 yards in three-plus contests and will be replaced by Latavius Murray (signed a three-year, $15 million deal in the off-season). He will inherit the bulk of the workload but note he's coming off ankle surgery during the off-season that still has him feeling less than 100 percent (has just 38 yards rushing this season). Defensively, the Vikings rank T-8th in points allowed (19.0 per) and 12th in total yards (318.0 YPG).

Chicago: It didn't take long for Chicago to sour on Glennon (anyone know what the team liked about him in the first place?) and Trubisky will have an opportunity to showcase his abilities in front of millions of viewers, as he makes his debut on MNF. "Ifeel like I'm ready," Trubisky said to reporters this week. "I'm excited. I'm just going to take it day by day and prepare as hard as I possibly can for every single look and situation we can get on Monday. I'm going to be dependent on my teammates a lot. My job is to get the ball to the playmakers and just be a distributor and manage the offense and do the best I can." He doesn't figure to get too much help from Chiacgo's average at-best running game plus while the Chicago defense has allowed 306.2 YPG (9th), the Bears have allowed 26.0 PPG, which ranks 27th.

The pick: The return of Bradford would be HUGE news for Minnesota (he's listed as questionable) but the Vikings will also be buoyed by the fact that WR Michael Floyd has also been reinstated after a four-game suspension for violating the league's substance-abuse policy. Floyd joins a talented group of WRs that includes Stefon Diggs (22 catches / 17.8 YPC and Adam Thielen (24 catches / 14.9 YPC). Whether it's Bradford (hopefully) or Kennum, I'll take the Vikings against Trubuiskty, who had just one season of note at North Carolina. Trubisky had his moments in the preseason but playing against disinterested starters and backups is quite different than playing a division rival on MNF in one's first-ever NFL start. Make Minnesota a 10* play.

The set-up: Through the season's first four weeks, the Kansas City Chiefs stand alone as the NFL's lone unbeaten team at 4-0. The Chiefs are also a perfect 4-0 ATS after their 'miracle' finish last Monday night against the Redskins. The Chiefs are back on in primetime again in Week 5, this time in Houston against the 2-2 Texans for a SNF game at NRG Stadium on NBC. Houston's 19-12 win last season over KC ended a three-game losing streak in the series, including a 33-0 playoff rout in January 2016.

Kansas City: QB Alex Smith has played superbly for the Chiefs, who have scored at least 21 second-half points in three of their four victories. He's been stuck with the label of "game manager" for years but has eight TD passes without an interceptions (121 attempts) plus leads the NFL in both QB rating (124.2) and completing percentage (76.0%). Nothing "game-manager-like" in those numbers! Smith is not alone in being a major contributor to KC's offense in 2017. Rookie RB Kareem Hunt (Toledo) has rushed for more than 100 yards three times and has 502 yards on the season, averaging 7.4 YPC with four TDs. Throw in 13 catches with two more TDs and he's been the league's best back 25 percent of the way through NFL 2017. TE Travis Kelce and WR Tyreek Hill each have a team-high 21 catches, with two TD receptions apiece. Kansas City's offense ranks 2nd in both points scored (30.5 per) and total yards (405,2 per). The defense allows 359.5 YPG to rank 26th but only allows 19.2 PPG, which ranks 10th.

Houston: Bill O'Brien may never live down his decision to open the season with Tom Savage at QB over Deshaun Watson but now that he's "seen the light," the Texans are only looking forward. The Texans have been a different team since handing the keys of the offense to Watson, who accounted for five TDs in last week's 57-14 demolition of visiting Tennessee. Watson guided Clemson to back-to-back national championship showdowns with Alabama, shredding the Tide's defense in both games, while claiming the title in last January's rematch. Watson threw for 283 yards and four TDs plus ran for another score last Sunday, earning AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors. DeAndre Hopkins is Watson's favorite target with 31 receptions but fellow WR Will Fuller returned from injury to make a splashy debut against the Titans with a pair of TDs among his four catches. RB Lamar Miller scored his first two TDs of the season last week, piling up 131 yards from scrimmage, while Watson's running ability and rookie RB D'Onta Foreman provide solid complements (Texans average 139.8 YPG rushing to rank fifth). Houston's defense led the NFL in total yards allowed in 2016 (301.3 YPG) and while the Texans are allowing fewer yards in 2017 (291.5 YPG), that figure ranks only fifth-best.

The pick: Yes, the Smith and Hunt duo plus the play of Deshaun Watson make this look like an attractive over play. However, these are two outstanding defensive teams (KC's YPG stats so far, not withstanding), so the play here is an 8* on the Under.

The set-up: The Seattle Seahawks needed a breakout game (win) last Sunday night and the sad-sack Colts played the perfect foil, as the Seattle romped to a 46-18 victory. That evened the team's record at 2-2 and now in Week 5, the Seahawks will travel to Los Angeles to take on one of 2017's surprise NFL teams, the Rams. The Rams were 4-12 in 2016, the team's first season back in LA (had moved to St Louis for the start of the season), finishing as the NFL's most-impotent offense (14.0 PPG on 262.7 YPG). However, QB Jared Goff (0-7 as a starter as a rookie), has led a turnaround that has the Rams 3-1 and looking for a third straight win in this contest with Seattle.

Seattle:The Seahawks didn't score a TD in either of its first two games (21 points on seven FGs) and while the Seahawks put up 27 points at Tennessee, the defense allowed 33 points on 420 yards. Russell Wilson had a breakout" game against the Titans, completing 29 of 49 for 373 yards with four TDs and had 295 yards plus two more TDs against the Colts. The Seattle offense which has scored just 21 points in Weeks 1 and 2, has scored 73 points the last two games. Maybe more importantly, after allowing Tennessee to roll up 420 yards in Week 3, Seattle's defense looked more like the one we've seen in recent years, allowing the Colts to gain only 237 total yards.

LA Rams: Jared Goff has played like a No. 1 overall pick through four games, completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 1,072 yards with seven TDs and just one interception in 117 attempts (QB rating of 112.2). RB Todd Gurley has 362 rushing yards with four TDs plus leads the team with 20 catches. Goff also has developing 'go-to' WRs in Sammy Watkins (14 catches) and Robert Woods (12). After averaging woeful totals on offense in 2016 (see above), the 2017 Rams are the NFL's top-scoring team (35.5 PPG) on 386.5 YPG (5th). However, the defense adds little 'cover,' ranking 28th in points allowed (26.2 per) on 2367.8 YPG (ranks 27th).

The pick: Seattle's offense found its groove in the second half against the Titans and 'poured it on' in the second half of last Sunday night's against the Colts. The Seahawks rolled up a season-high 194 rushing yards last Sunday night, while QB Wilson had the most accurate game of his career in connecting on 21 of 26 passes. The defense isn't as elite as its been in the past but it was much better in Week 4. Sure, the Rams' offense will be a tougher test but Seattle's offense shouldn't have much trouble against a Rams defense which ranks among the worst in the NFL. Let's not forget that Seattle has won at least 10 games in each of the past five seasons, while the Rams haven't had a winning season since 2003! Make Seattle a 10* play.

The set-up: The Buffalo Bills last made the playoffs back in 1999, the longest postseason drought of any NFL team. However, they visit Cincinnati at Paul Brown Stadium on Sunday with a surprising 3-1 record. The Bengals opened 0-3 in 2017 but were able to win their first game of the season last Sunday 31-7, although it came over the hapless (helpless?) Browns.

Buffalo: New head coach Sean McDermott is riding high but is also savvy enough not to take the 1-3 Bengals lightly."This is a team that has been in the playoffs the last 'X' amount of years," McDermott told reporters. ”Anyone who looks at a record at this point in the season is making a huge mistake. This is a good football team." Buffalo's Week 3 home win over Denver was nice but its 23-17 in Atlanta over the previously unbeaten Falcons got everyone's attention. The Bills led the NFL in rushing last year at 164.4 YPG but this year Buffalo has struggled, averaging only 112.8 YPG (26th). McCoy had 110 yards in Week 1 but over the last three games, which included impressive wins over the Broncos and Falcons, he has only 106 yards, while averaging just 2.3 YPC! I'm not sure what to make of QB Tyrod Taylor but the bottom line is, he leads an offense averaging just 18.2 PPG (23rd) on 284.2 YPG (29th). Buffalo's defense has been the key so far, allowing a league-low 13.5 PPG on 306.0 YPG (8th).

Cincinnati: Bengal fans were calling for Andy Dalton to be benched after Cincy opened with back-to-back home losses to the Ravens and Texans, while failing to reach the end zone (had scored just nine points). However, after throwing four INTs in Week 1, Dalton hasn't had one since, plus he's completed 80.8 percent of his throws the last two games, passing for 498 yards and six TDs! The Bengals took the Packers to OT at Greem Bay (lost 27-24) but then won 31-7 at Cleveland. Dalton is not getting much help from his running game, as rookie Joe Mixon has been a major disappointment (2.6 YPC) and the ground game averages only 88.8 YPG on 3.3 YPC. Like Buffalo, the Cincy defense has been excellent, ranking third in both points scored (16.8 PPG) and 273.2 YPG.

The pick: Does a matchup between two top defenses spell an under? Let me first say that I'm not so sure Cincy's defense is all that good. The Bengals have faced Joe Flacco (on the downside of his career), Deshaun Watson (in his first NFL start) and DeShone Kizer, who is not an NFL QB. When facing Rodgers, he lit them up for 313 yards and three TDs. Taylor is no Rodgers but I look for the Bills to score more than expected. As for the Bengals, since Bill Lazor took over as offensive coordinator these last two weeks, Andy Dalton has looked more comfortable, with the Bengals averaging 27.5 PPG (Dalton has six TDS without an INT). This low number means the 8* play is on the Over.

The set-up: Ford Field in Detroit is the site of a Week 5 game between a pair of 3-1 teams. The Panthers went from a 15-1 regular season and a Super Bowl loss to the Broncos in 2015, to a 6-10 record in 2016, which left them in last-place in the NFC South. The Detroit Lions were 9-7 last year (lost in the wild card round), the team's third postseason appearance in the last six years. That said, expectations were pretty low entering 2017, so the team's 3-1 start is a surprise, especially since its lone loss (30-26 to the Falcons), was to say the least, highly controversial.

Carolina: The Panthers won 33-30 last Sunday at New England, with QB Cam Newton reminding all of his MVP-like talent. He completed 22 of 29 for 316 yards and three TDs plus ran for 44 yards and another score. Jonathan Stewart had his best game of 2017 so far, gaining 68 yards on 14 carries. However, Newton's positive mojo has been interrupted
by his comment toward a female beat writer that drew ire. "It's funny to hear a female talk about routes like ... it's funny,” Newton said in response to a question from Charlotte Observer reporter Jourdan Rodrigue. Newton called his words “extremely degrading and disrespectful” in his apology. Will this be a distraction? Time will tell. There have been few distractions for Carolina's defense, as despite having played two potent offenses the past two weeks in New Orleans and New England, the Panthers rank 4th in both points allowed (17.5 PPG) and yards allowed (322.5 YPG).

Detroit: QB Matthew Stafford has shown a newfound maturity (signed a 'monster' deal prior to the season), throwing seven TD passes with only one interception in 138 attempts. RB Ameer Abdullah appears headed for a breakout season, after rushing for a career-high 94 yards and a TD in last week’s 14-7 triumph at Minnesota.The third-year RB from Nebraska had 597 yards as a rookie but played in just two games last season. He has 257 yards after four games in 2017, putting him on pace for a 1,00-yard season. The Lions are just a half-yard shy of being the only undefeated team in the NFC. Detroit lost its last home game when, upon an officials' review, Golden Tate was ruled just short of the goal line in the closing seconds against Atlanta. The game ended on that play, because a 10-second runoff was required after the review because the Lions didn't have any timeouts left.

The pick: Noting all of the above, I'm still skeptical about this Detroit team. The Lions have been extremely opportunistic on both sides of the ball, ranking 10th in scoring offense (24.8 PPG) and fourth in scoring defense (17.5 PPG) despite being 24th in total offense (just 299.8 YPG) and 15th in total defense. Their plus-9 turnover margin has played a huge role in that and the question I have is, can they keep it up? Throw in that PK Matt Prater has made an NFL-record four FGs of 55 yards or longer this season, after just four games. It's called "regression to the mean." Make Carolina an 8* play.

The set-up: It's Thursday Night football on CBS to open NFL Week 5 of the 2017 season. The 2-2 New England Patriots will visit Raymond James Stadium to take on the 2-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. There was talk prior to the season that the Pats just could go 16-0 in 2017 but not only are the Pats just 2-2, they are a last-second Brady TD pass against Houston in Week 3 from being 1-3! Tampa Bay saw its Week 1 games vs. the Dolphins postponed to later in the season due to Hurricane Irma and enters 2-1 after edging the Giants 25-23 last Sunday at home, on 34-yard FG with no time left on the clock. There is not a lot of history between the two clubs, with the Pats leading the all-time series 6-2.

New England: Tom Brady may be 40 years-old but he is NOT the problem for New England. He's completing 66.5 percent of his passes for 1,399 yards (Pats rank 1st with 328.3 YPG through the air) with 10 TDs and not a single interception in 155 attempts (QB rating is 116.6). New featured runner Mike Gillislee is sitting on 57 carries for 194 yards with four TDs but hasn't topped 70 yards in a game (Pats average 95.5 rushing YPG to rank 20th). TE Rob Gronkowski is New England’s top receiver with 20 receptions for 318 yards and two TDs. New England is averaging 32.2 PPG (2nd), so again, that's not the problem. The issue is, the Patriots are off to their worst defensive start under coach Bill Belichick, having allowed 128 points and 1,827 total yards, an average of 32.0 PPG (31st) and 456.8 yards YPG (32nd). According to STATS, since the 1970 NFL merger, it's the most points allowed in the first four games by a team that had the best scoring defense in the previous season (Pats allowed just 15.6 PPG in 2016).

Tampa Bay: Expectations were high for the Bucs entering 2017.QB Jameis Winston came up big in Sunday's 25-23 home win against the Giants, going 5-for-5 on the final drive that led to the game-winning FG as time expired. He was 22-for-38 with 332 yards and three touchdowns against the Giants but in the team's 34-17 loss in Week 3 at Minnesota, he threw three INTs and fumbled twice (did not lose one, though). Still, consistency is Winston's problem (safe to say he's no Brady). Tampa Bay has had no running game, averaging 84.7 YPG to rank 26th but the good news is, Doug Martin returns after a four-game suspension for violating the NFL's policy on performance-enhancing drugs (he sat out the final week of 2016). Martin's had a pair of 1,000-yard rushing seasons in his previous five years. The defense ranks 30th in yards allowed (394.3 per game) but is a middle-of-the-pack 16th in points allowed (21.3 PPG).

The pick: The Bucs need to run the ball better and while Martin is back with the team, it's unclear how much of a role he will play in his season debut. I noted Tampa Bay's overall defensive stats above but will add that most of the damage against the Bucs has come through the air, as they rank 31st in allowing 315.7 YPG. How can that be good news against Brady, who was 9-0 on Thursday nights until New England lost to Kansas City in its season opener? The Pats were a perfect 8-0 SU on the road in 2016 and won their lone road game of 2017 against New Orleans, 36-20. Like in this contest, the Pats were coming off a loss vs. the Saints and after taking down New Orleans, the Pats improved to an impressive 43-6 SU off a loss! How does one buck that trend? With a victory on Thursday night, Brady (185-54) will tie Brett Favre (186-112) and Peyton Manning (186-79) for the most regular-season wins in NFL history. Expect Brady to chalk up another 'notch' on his ever-growing NFL legacy. Lay the points and make the Pats a 10* play.

The set-up: The 3-0 Kansas City Chiefs come into Week 4 as one of just two unbeaten teams in the NFL (defending champion Atlanta is the other, pending its Sunday game home game with the Bills). KC will welcome the 2-1 Redskins to Arrowhead Stadium for MNF, with Washington coming off an impressive 27-10 win over KC's AFC West rival Oakland in Week 3's SNF contest. This series dates back to 1971, when Hank Stram's last great Chiefs team beat George Allen's first Washington team at old Municipal Stadium in an exciting 27-20 final. KC owns the series, winning eight of nine, with the last meeting coming in 2013, when KC routed Washington 45-10 in Arrowhead.

Washington: The Redskins lost their opener, at home to the Eagles but then won 27-20 out in LA over the Rams, before shutting down David Carr and the Oakland offense (Raiders were held to 128 yards and seven FDs!) in a 27-10 home win in Week 3. QB Kirk Cousins was 25-of-30 for 365 yards and three TDs against the Raiders and has completed 68.0 percent for 784 yards with five TDs and just one INT on the season (105.3 QB rating). The running game does not have an established star but ranks sixth in averaging 136.3 YPG. The defense is allowing 20.0 PPG (10th) on 276.0 YPG (5th).

Kansas City: QB Alex Smith has always been best-known as a "game manager" but he's completing 77.4 percent for 774 yards with seven TDs and zero INTs (132.7 QB rating leads the NFL!). He has more 'weapons' that ever-before, with WR Hill (16 catches for two TDs), TE Kelce (14 catches) plus rookie RB Kareem Hunt has been 2017's "breakout star." The former Toledo Rocket has 401 yards rushing (8.5 YPC) and four TDs plus nine catches, including two TDs! KC is averaging 31.0 PPG on 397.3 YPG, ranking third in both categories. The defense has allowed a modest 19.0 PPG (7th) but also 369.0 YPG (27th), including 257.3 YPG through the air (23rd).

The pick: Andy Reid-coached teams have always been known for their defense and special teams play but with a somewhat conservative offense. However, the Chiefs are averaging 31.0 PPG so far in 2017 and suddenly, have become a "big-play" team. The Chiefs enter this contest having recorded at least one TD of more than 50 yards in an NFL-record nine straight regular-season games. "We've got big-play guys that can go, when given the opportunity. (They) can take it the distance," an elated Alex Smith was quoted as saying. He's right but also, expect Washington's Kirk Cousins to "show up" for this MNF showdown. Both teams have balanced offenses (see above for a reminder) and the play here is a 10* on the over.

The set-up: The Indianapolis Colts were able to hold on and beat the Cleveland Browns last Sunday, getting the team to 1-2 after opening the 2017 season with back-to-back losses to the Raiders and Cardinals. The Colts are hoping to build off their Week 3 win but will have a tough time winning at CenturyLink Field in Seattle against a Seahawks team which can't possibly be very happy to have opened its season at 1-2, as well. Seattle opened with a 17-9 loss in Green Bay, returned home edge the sad-sack 49ers just 12-9 and then lost 33-27 at Tennessee last Sunday.

Indianapolis: With Luck still on the shelf, the Colts made a trade with the Pats to get QB Jacoby Brissett after they were routed 46-9 by the Rams in Week 1. Brissett was a noticeable improvement over Scott Tolzein and the Colts took the Cards to OT before losing in Week 2. Then last Sunday, Brissett led the Colts with 259 passing yards and a TD on 17 of 24 passing, while also notching a pair of rushing TDs. He became the first QB in franchise history to rush for two TDs, pass for another and throw for at least 250 yards! T.Y. Hilton had a huge game with seven catches for 153 yards with one TD. The running game still needs to improve, as the Colts are averaging 81.0 YPG (25th). After getting shredded by the Rams for 46 points, Indy's D held the Cardinals to 16 points in an OT, then had a sack and three interceptions against the Browns.

Seattle: The Seahawks didn't score a TD in either of its first two games (21 points on seven FGs) and while the Seahawks put up 27 points at Tennessee, the defense allowed 33 points on 420 yards. Russell Wilson had a breakout" game last Sunday, completing 29 of 49 for 373 yards with four TDs but to no avail with Seattle's defense going 'south!' Like th Colts, Seattele needs to get its running going, averaging only 96.7 YPG (19th) through the first three games. Getting back to Seattle's defense, it has long prided itself on not allowing a 100-yard rusher but it has now allowed one in back-to-back weeks and was gashed for 195 yards on the ground by DeMarco Murray (115) and the Titans last Sunday.

The pick: Sure, Brissett gives the Colts a better shot but note the team's two competitive games were at home, while Indy was crushed in its lone road game (see above). The Seahawks are in unfamiliar territory at 1-2 and have hardly resembled the team that has won at least 10 games in each of the past five seasons. However, Seattle's offense finally came to life after two ugly efforts to open the season and should have few problems scoring here against the Colts D. Seattle's D is off an embarrassing effort and will rebound in this one. Look out Mr. Brissett. Make Seattle an 8* play.

The set-up: The Philadelphia Eagles are off to a solid 2-1 start in 2017 (QB Carson Wentz is now 5-1 in September games) but Sunday is October 1st and the Eagles are traveling cross-country for their Week 4 game. However, the good news is, Philly's opponent is the now-Los Angeles Chargers (at StubHub Center in Carson, Ca.), who have opened 0-3 in 2017, after ending the 2016 season 0-5 (combined run of 0-8 SU and 0-7-1 ATS).

Philadelphia: Wentz has completed 62.1 percent of his passes for 816 yards with five TDs and two INTs (90.3 QB rating). He's led the Eagles to 25.7 PPG (10th), somewhat helped by a running game averaging 119.3 YPG (9th) but on a solid 4.5 YPC. LeGarrette Blount has underachieved so far, with only 113 yards in three games (we'll see?). Philly's secondary noticeably wore down in last Sunday's narrow 27-24 win over N.Y. Giants (New York scored all 24 of its points in the fourth quarter) and on the season, Philly has allowed 22.7 PPG (20th) on 321.0 YPG (21st).

LA Chargers: The Chargers opened with two close losses (24-21 at Denver & 19-7 at home vs. Miami). They then lost 24-10 at home to KC last week, although they held KC to a modest 311 yards (three Rivers INTS led to 17 points!). LA has allowed 22.3 PPG (a little worse than average (ranks 19th) on 322.7 YPG, which is a little better than average (ranks 13th). QB Philip Rivers went 20-of-40 for 237 yards and three picks against KC and comes in completing 65.2% for 760 yards with four TDs and four INTs. The running game is once again proving to be a liability. Gordon is averaging 48.7 YPG on 3.3 YPC and the team checks in at 70.7 YPG rushing, ranking 27th. The Chargers will be in for a very long season if they can't average more than the 16.0 points they have through three games (ranks 26th)!

The pick: This marks the Chargers' third straight home game and while two of the team's three losses this year have been closely contested (lost by three and two points), the Chargers are making a habit of losing "the close ones." The team has seemingly mastered the art of losing close games. It lost an NFL-high eight games last year by seven points less and has already lost two more in that range in 2017. With just nine wins since the beginning of the 2015 season (two-plus seasons), I want no part of the Chargers against a Philly team which just may be 'sneaky good!' Make the Eagles a 10* play.

The set-up: The Jacksonville Jaguars return from London after pounding the Baltimore Ravens 44-7 last Sunday, one of the more surprising Week 3 outcomes. The 37-point win represents the Jaguars' largest margin of victory in 10 years and they'll try to ride that positive mojo into their Week encounter at MetLife Stadium this Sunday against the NY Jets. How about the J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets? They nearly earned their first shutout in eight seasons, dominating the Dolphins by teh score of 20-6, with Miami not getting on the board until the game's final play!

Jacksonville: The Jags sit 2-1 for the first time since 2007. Blake Bortles nearly lost his starting job during the preseason, coming off a poor 2016. He's only completing 59.6 percent (no big deal) and the Jags rank 23rd in passing YPG (193.3) but he's got six TDs passes (had four vs. the Ravens) and only TWO interceptions. "The biggest thing with Blake is probably psychological. I think mentally, him understanding that we're only going as far as he takes us," said TE Marcedes Lewis. BTW...Lewis caught three of Bortles' four touchdown passes against the Ravens. Rookie RB Leonard Fournette has 199 rushing yards this season and while that may not seem like a big deal to many, it's the most by any Jacksonville player through their first three career games plus he has scored one TD in all three games. The D has been terrific, ranking second in total yards (259.7 per) and 4th in points (17.0 per).

NY Jets: Speaking of a good defensive effort, the Jets, after some were waxing on about the team having a win-less season, completely shut down the Dolphins, holding them out of the end zone until the game's final play, while allowing just 225 yards for the entire contest. Much-maligned QB Josh McCown had another efficient game (18 of 23 for 249 yards), including a 69-yard TD pass to Robby Anderson. There hasn't been much offense from New York, with the Jets averaging 280.7 YPG (27th) on 17.3 PPG (22nd). The D will be tested by the Jags' offense, as New York ranks 23rd in scoring (24.0 PPG) and 24th in yards allowed (347.7 per).

The pick: Seeing the Jags as a road favorite is disconcerting. They are favored on the road for the first time since they played the Indianapolis Colts in 2011 with Curtis Painter filling in for the injured Peyton Manning. When Jacksonville won 29-7 at Houston in Week 1, it was only the third time Bortles had won the road in 23 tries! The key here is this very low over/under number. Scoring was low in Weeks 1 & 2 but Week 3 games averaging just a tick under 50 PPG. Jags playing with confidence plus McCown may just surprise again. Make the Over an 8* play.

The set-up: The NFL will play a second straight game in London and the fans at Wembley Stadium are hoping to see a more competitive game than the Jags' surprising 44-7 rout of the Ravens last Sunday. The Saints opened their 2017 season by losing 29-19 at Minnesota in Week 1 and 36-20 at home vs. the Pats in Week 2. The Saints earned their first win of the season 34-13 in Carolina this past Sunday against the Panthers. The Dolphins make the trek "across the pond" at 1-1. The team's Week 1 game vs. Tampa Bay was postponed due to Hurricane Irma and after a 19-17 Week 2 win over the Chargers in LA and a 20-6 loss on the road to the NY Jets last Sunday, the Dolphins will be on the road (and how!) for a third consecutive contest.

New Orleans: The age-less Drew Brees was 22-of-29 for 220 yards and three TDs in last Sunday's win and enters this contest completing 68.5 percent for 867 yards (Saints rank 5th in passing YPG) with six TDs and not a single INT in 111 attempts! Adrian Peterson has been a non-factor (77 yards on 3.3 YPC), as the running game has not been much of a help, averaging 96.7 YPG (18th). Defense has been a major concern in recent years for New Orleans and that's true again so far in 2017, as the Saints are allowing 26.0 PPG (30th) on 437.7 YPG (31st).

Miami: The jury is still out on Jay Cutler, who is completing 64.9 percent but for only 450 yards (Miami ranks 21st in passing YPG) with two TDs and one INT. Cutler has gotten no help from a running game averaging 70.5 YPG (29th) and Miami enters averaging only 12.5 PPG (30th) on 280.5 YPG (28th). The defense has allowed 351.5 YPG (25th) but only 18.5 PPG (6th). The team will have to cut down on those yards, or that scoring average will almost surely rise.

The pick: Brees is still on top of his game and Miami is allowing 8.6 yards per pass play, the worst mark in the NFL. The London folks may be in for quite a display from the veteran. Miami's offense is coming off an embarrassing performance in last week's 20-6 loss to the Jets, avoiding a shutout by scoring in garbage time on the game's final play. That last game was a disaster," Miami head coach Gase said. "That's obvious, and it's embarrassing." He may have seen nothing yet. 2017 could be a long year for the Dolphins. Yes, New Orleans has its defensive problems but does Miami have the players to take advantage? I think not! Meanwhile, the Saints have lost to two quality teams (Vikings and Pats) and the team has yet to commit a turnover. I'll throw in that the Saints are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 October games and while maybe it means nothing, it's not a bad thing. Make New Orleans an 8* play.

The set-up: The NFL's longest rivalry resumes in Week 4's Thursday night game on CBS. The 1-2 Chicago Bears and 2-1 Green Bay Packers meet at Lambeau Field. Back on Sep. 25, 1960, the Chicago Bears, who were coached by the legendary George Halas, beat the Green Bay Packers, who were coached by the future legend Vince Lombardi, 17-14. That victory gave the Bears he Bears a commanding 50-26-6 edge in the series. However, after the Packers swept last year's two games, the series is knotted at 94-94-6. That means that with a victory tonight, the Packers could take the series lead for the first time since 1932!

Chicago: Many are not sold on Chicago's current starting QB Mike Glennon. He is completing 67.3 percent of his passes but for a modest 615 yards (Chicago ranks 27th in passing yards), while tossing three TDs and three INTs, giving him a QB rating of only 79.8. However, in fairness, Chicago's wide receiver corps have been ravaged by injury, The running game has been a nice surprise, averaging 121.7 YPG (8th) on 5.0 YPC, led by Howard (197 yards on 4.4 YPC with 3 TDs) and Cohen (157 yards on 6.5 YPC). Chicago will need to find a way to score more, as it is averaging only 15.7 PPG (28th). The defense has been average, allowing 23.0 PPG (21st) on 321.7 YPG (12th). The strength is its rush D, holding opponents to 83.7 YPG to rank 8th.

Green Bay: Rodgers is second in the league with 967 yards passing, exceeding 300 in each of the first three games. Although most teams would be just fine with their starting QB owning a passer rating of 93.1, it marks just the third time Rodgers' QB rating is below 100 in the 10 seasons since he took over as Green Bay's starter. Rodgers has attempted at least 42 passes in each game behind a banged-up offensive line, among the reasons he has been sacked a league-high 13 times. Running back Ty Montgomery, despite leading the team with 18 receptions, has rushed for only 124 yards in three games (3.0 YPC). Green Bay comes in averaging only 69.0 YPG on the ground, ranking 29th in the league. The defense has allowed a modest 296.7 YPG (8th-best) but also 22.3 PPG, just 18th-best.

The pick: Rodgers has 17 TD passes versus just one interception in his last six meetings with Chicago and he's 15-4 against Chicago with a QB rating of 105.7. I'm not about to go against "the Pack," especially since Chicago comes in on a nine-game road losing streak (last road win was Week 16 of the 2015 season at Tampa Bay). However, the Bears have been quietly playing better than expected. Chicago lost to the defending NFC champion Falcons by just six points in Week 1 and are coming off a shocking home upset over the Pittsburgh Steelers. in OT last Sunday. Meanwhile, the Packers are still dealing with offensive line issues to the point they’re signing players off of other teams practice squads in hopes of patching things up. Both teams are off OT wins and playing on a short week. The play here is a 10* on the Under.

The set-up: It's Sunday night NFL action on NBC from FedEx Field, as the 2-0 Oakland Raiders visit the 1-1 Washington Redskins. The Raiders have quickly established that last year's 12-4 season was no fluke, beating the Titans 26-16 in Tennessee (impressive win) and then routing the Jets back in Oakland, 45-20. The Redskins were upset at home in Week 1 by the Eagles (30-17) but the team's 27-20 Week 2 win in LA over the Rams is starting to look better, after the Rams have scored 46 and 41 points in their other two games to open the 2017 season.

Oakland: Derek Carr is completing 75.0 percent of his passes for 492 yards with five TDs and zero INTs (126.5 QB rating) five touchdowns and zero interceptions. WRs Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper have combined for 258 receiving yards and four TDs while TE Jared Cook has nine receptions. Crabtree has 20 TD catches since the start of the 2015 season, tying him for fourth in the NFL in that span (pretty sweet FA pick-up!). The running game is chipping in 144.5 YPG (5th), while averaging a healthy 5.2 YPC. With the offense averaging 35.5 PPG (2nd-best), the defense is doing just fine in allowing 18.0 PPG (10th).

Washington: QB Kirk Cousins threw for nearly 5,000 yards last season but is off to a slow start (only 419 passing yards) after losing his starting WRs in free agency. He is trying to establish a rapport with Terrelle Pryor (eight catches for just 97 yards without a TD catch) and it sure won't help if TE Jordan Reed plus starting RB Rob Kelley both miss (each is listed as questionable due to injuries). However, third-down back Chris Thompson and rookie Samaje Perine filled in nicely for a ground game that produced 229 yards against the Rams. Washington's defense ranks 26th in both points allowed (25.0 per) and total yards (350.0 per), although the team's rush D is allowing just 77.5 YPG. However, Carson Wentz riddled the Washington secondary for 307 yards in the air in Week 1 and stopping Carr may be a 'bridge too far.'

The pick: The Raiders enter this contest on an impressive 11-2 ATS run over their last 13 road game (most as an underdog, though) plus QB Carr, who began his career with 10 consecutive defeats, comes in 14-3 over his last 17 starts! However, Washington head coach Jay Gruden has his own spread success lately as well, as he's 15-7 ATS his last 22 regular season games. Tough call on the side but this is Week 3's highest total (could climb even higher by game time) and like in Week 1 at Tennessee, expect an Under for the Raiders on the road. Make it an 8* play.

The set-up: The Seattle Seahawks and the Tennessee Titans square off in Week 3 NFL action from Nissan Stadium in Nashville. Both teams are 1-1 and the loser will not be a "happy camper." The Seahawks' offense has been "missing in action" after two weeks, averaging 10.5 PPG to rank 29th of 32 teams on 268.5 YPG (27th). Tennessee appeared to find its offense in the second half of last week's 37-16 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars but now will be severely tested by on of the NFL's best defenses these last five-plus years in Seattle.

Seattle: The Seahawks were held without a TD in Week 1 at Green Bay and then were able to generate just 13 points (one TD) against a San Francisco defense which just allowed 41 point to the Rams on Thursday night. Russell Wilson passed for 198 yards and a TD on 23 of 39 passing, against the 49ers and rookie RB Chris Carson led Seattle’s ground game with 93 yards on 20 carries. As it has for some time now, Seattle's defense is off to a typically strong start, allowing 13.0 PPG (5th) on 309.0 YPG (13th).

Tennessee: The Titans lost 26-16 at home to the Raiders in Week 1 but I think most are now aware that the Raiders are a quality team. The Titans found their offense in the second half of last week's win at Jacksonville, scoring 31 points. QB Mariota finished with 215 yards (one TD / one INT). RB Derrick Henry led with 92 yards rushing (on just 14 carries) with one TD. The Titans defense recorded two sacks, two interceptions and forced two fumbles, while holding the Jags to just 310 yards of total offense.

The pick: I like the Titans quite a bit but Tennessee is 7-22-2 ATS in its last 31 home games (5-9-1 as a home favorite since 2013). The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between these two teams and Seattle is11-5-3 as a road underdog since 2011, including 2-0 in 2016. Make Seattle a 10* play.

The set-up: The Houston Texans and the New England Patriots square off in Week 3 NFL action from Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, a rematch of the Patriots' 34-16 win in last season's Divisional Round of the playoffs when Houston was without injured star J.J. Watt. He is back and healthy (although he's sack-less) plus Houston is a banged-up football team. Both teams are 1-1, losing their openers before winning in Week 2. Houston won 13-9 at Cincinnati with Deshaun Watson making his first NFL start, while Brady rebounded from his awful Week 1 performance by ripping the Saints for 447 yards and three TDs on 30 of 39 passing in the Pats' 36-20 win.

Houston: No one can say a 13-9 win over the struggling Bengals is a big deal. Deshaun Watson completed 15 of 24 passing for only 125 yards (no TDs or INTs) but led Houston in rushing with 67 yards, including a spectacular 49-yard TD scamper. RB Lamar Miller added 61 yards on the ground with his team-leading 18 carries, while DeAndre Hopkins was one of just four Texans’ receivers to catch a pass in the win, leading the team with seven receptions for 73 yards. The Texans, who finished No. 1 total defense last season (301.3 YPG) even without Watt for most of the year, recovered a fumble, made three sacks and held Cincy to just 295 yards and without a TD (three FGs). Then again, it was against the Bengals, not Brady and the Pats.

New England: There was more than a little 'chatter' after Brady was held without a TD pass in New England's opener against the Chiefs (Brady had the league's lowest passer rating after that humbling 42-27 setback to Kansas City). However, the doubters have all been quieted, after his Week 2 effort at New Orleans (see above). The Pats head into this contest averaging 31.5 PPG (5th) on 341.5 YPG through the air (No. 1 in the NFL). There could be some concern with the defense though, as after allowing an NFL-low 15.6 PPG in 2016, on 326.4 YPG (6th), the Pats are allowing 31.0 PPG (30th) on 483.0 YPG (31st).

The pick: The Patriots took it to the Texans last season, winning both meetings, including a 27-0 shutout win in Week 3 (Brady was still serving his suspension) and then that 34-16 win in the playoffs. Deshaun Watson had a solid first start but beating the sad-sack Bengals is one thing, beating the Pats of Brady and Belichick, is another. Rookie QBs are 5-15 (in the first or only meeting of a rookie season) against Belichick through his time in New England. The Foxboro numbers are even scarier, 0-8 with five TDs, 16 INTs and a 50.7 passer rating. Add to that, the fact that the Texans have never won in Foxboro (0-5) and are 1-8 overall against the Patriots, with six straight losses. I'd say lay it with the Pats but I'm troubled by New England's D so far and I like what I see from Watson. Make the Over an 8* play.

The set-up: The NFL's first "London game" of the 2017 season features the 2-0 Baltimore Ravens taking on the 1-1 Jacksonville Jaguars "across the pond" at Wembley Stadium in London on Sunday morning. This will be Jacksonville's fifth straight year playing a game in London but it is a first for Baltimore. The Ravens played the entire preseason without starting QB Joe Flacco but went 4-0, anyway. As Baltimore had insisted, Flacco was ready for Week 1 and while he's been mediocre at best, the Ravens are off to a 2-0 start with a 20-0 win at Cincy and 24-10 home win over the Browns. The Jags opened their 2017 season by upsetting the Texans 29-7 in Houston but then severely disappointed their home crowd by losing 37-16 to the Titans, last Sunday in Jacksonville.

Baltimore: Flacco has passed for just 338 yards (Ravens rank 31st of 32 teams in passing yards), as the team's deep threats (Mike Wallace and Breshad Perriman) have been non-existent thus far, combining for three catches for just 20 yards receiving. However, the running game is averaging 146.5 YPG (3rd). Once again, Baltimore is relying on its defense, as the Ravens have allowed just 5.0 PPG (2nd) on 303.5 YPG (10th). The Baltimore D has four INTs in each of of its first two games, along with two recovered fumbles plus eight sacks!

Jacksonville: Rookie RB Leonard Fournettehad 100 yards rushing in his debut but was held to just 40 yards by the Titans. The Jags are counting on him, as his success is paramount to Doug Marrone's offensive designs as the Jaguars try to rein in the turnover-plagued Bortles. The much-maligned Bortles is completing only 56.4% for 348 yards (Jags rank 28th in passing yards) with two TDs and two INTs (QB rating of 72.4). In the Jags' Week 1 win, Bortles attempted a career-low 21 passes. "However, we can find ways to win, if it's throwing it 50 times or five times, I'm more than willing to do that and fine with it," Bortles said after that game. "It's not, 'I'm mad because we're not throwing the ball enough.' It's not that. I couldn't care less. Anyone believe him? Think that anyone in the organization has much faith in Bortles?

The pick: This is the 21st regular-season meeting between the teams and the Jaguars surprisingly lead the series, 11-9 (note: the Ravens and Jaguars were former division rivals in the AFC Central until 2001). Series history means little in this one but as we saw in Week 2, but the fact Bortles reverted to a familiar form with two ill-timed picks and general ineffectiveness in that lopsided loss to the Titans, does. Anyone expect him to deal effectively with this 'nasty' Baltimore D (see above to be reminded)? Not I. Make Baltimore an 8* play.

The set-up: The 0-2 San Francisco 49ers will host the 1-1 LA Rams Thursday night at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara on Thursday. The Rams routed the Colts 46-9 in Week 1 but then lost 27-20 to Washington in Week 2. The team will play its first road game of the season here, traveling on a short week, although the trip to Santa Clara is not much of a travel issue. As for the 49ers, they are 0-2 after a 23-3 home loss to the Panthers in Week 1 and a 12-9 loss to the Seahawks in Seattle in Week 2. The Rams are coming off a 4-12 season and the 49ers off a 2-14 one, so it's fair to say both teams have this one 'circled' as a rare "winning opportunity."

LA Rams: Jared Goff struggled when he played in 2016, after being the NFL's No. 1 overall pick in April. Goff completed just 54.6% in his seven games with five TDs, seven INTs and five lost fumbles (he was 0-5 as a starter). He had a breakout game in Week 1 by completing 21 of 29 for 306 yards with one TD, no INTs and a 117.9 QB rating. However, he was more average against Washington, going 15 of 25 for 224 yards with one TD, one INT and an 86.1 rating. RB Todd Gurley had just 41 yards in Week 1 in the win but looked better with 88 yards (5.5 YPC) in the loss, plus he's caught eight passes for 104 yards. Goff's improved play certainly makes the Ram's a much superior offensive team, averaging 33.0 PPG (LA averaged NFL lows of 14.0 PPG and 262.7 YPG in 2016). The Rams D has allowed 18.0 PPG (11th) on 305.3 YPG (13th) through two games, after allowing 24.6 PPG on 337.0 YPG in 2016.

San Francisco: The 49ers have a new head coach (Kyle Shanahan) and a new starting QB (Brian Hoyer) and so far, the offense has been pathetic. Hoyer has completed 62.9% and thrown for only 292 yards without a a TD pass (two INTs) and currently owns a 60.7 QB rating. RB Carlos Hyde has 169 yards rushing on 7.0 YPC but the team has averaged 6.0 PPG, amazingly ranking 31st of 32 teams (talk about a lack of scoring!). SF does rank dead-last (32nd) in total yards, at 232.5 YPG. Considering the team's woeful offensive performance, the defense has played well. San Francisco ranks 10th in both points allowed (17.5 per) on 299.5 YPG.

The pick: I noted at the top that both teams have to feel like this is a winnable one. However, the 49ers have to realize just how important winning here, is. The 49ers play their next three games on the road, return home to play the Cowboys and then travel cross-country to play the Eagles. Lose here and an 0-8 start looks pretty feasible. San Francisco just dominated the Rams at this venue last year, winning 28-0 and then upset the Rams later in the Coliseum, 22-21. Make San Francisco an 8* play.

The set-up: The 1-0 Detroit Lions visit MetLife Stadium and the 0-1 New York Giants for MNF on ESPN. Matthew Stafford completed 70.7 percent of his passes for 292 yards with four TDs and just one INT in Detroit's 35-23 Week 1 home win over Arizona. As for the Giants, they look for a bounce back performance after losing 19-3 at the Dallas Cowboys on SNF in Week 1. Manning completed 76.3 percent of his passes for 220 yards but did not lead the Giants into the end zone, while tossing one INT and getting sacked three times.

Detroit: The passing game graded out as an "A" in Week 1, with Golden Tate reeling in 10 catches for 107 yards, rookie Kenny Golladay grabbing four catches and making a favorable impression with a pair of fourth-quarter TD plus RB Theo Riddick also had six catches with a TD reception,. However, the rushing attack ran for just 82 yards (3.0 YPC) leaving head coach Jim Caldwell to say, "It needs work. We just got to keep working at it and (it's) not where we want it yet." The Lions' D was fine against the Cards, holding them to 308 yards (but 24 FDs) and 23 points, while forcing four TOs (three INTs).

NY Giants: The offense was mostly revamped in the off-season with the additions of WR Brandon Marshall, TEs Rhett Ellison and Evan Engram, plus the promotion of Paul Perkins to starting RB. The mainstays are QB Eli Manning and WR Odell Beckham, Jr. OBJ sat out Week 1 and New York's offense couldn't get out of its own way. I noted Eli's numbers above and as a team, the Giants totaled a modest 233 yards on 13 FDs (4 of 12 on third-downs). Perkins ran for 16 yards (seven carries), as the team had just 35 yards rushing (2.9 YPC). The Giants' D, considering it got no relief from its offense, did well to hold the Cowboys to 19 points.

The pick: Obviously, an OBJ return would be huge for the Giants but his status is iffy, as would be his contributions if he did play. The Lions didn't pull away from the Cards in Week 1 until the fourth quarter and I'm still not ready to trust that defense. I did allow 24 FDs but was 'saved' by forcing four TOs. However, the Lions' pass D allowed opposing QBs to complete a historic 72.7 percent of their pass attempts in 2016, while the defensehad just 14 takeaways, tying them for 28th (with the Jets). As for that Giants' D, it did its best last week vs. Dallas and let's not forget how good it was last year, when the Giants allowed only 17.8 PPG (2nd-best in the NFL) plus went from allowing an NFL-high 420.3 YPG in 2015, to allowing 339.7 YPG in 2016. Detroit is a different team away from its dome (12-20 SU the last four seasons) and I'm "all over" the Giants as a 10* play.

The set-up: The Packers opened the 2017 season with a solid 17-9 home win over the Seattle Seahawks, while the defending NFC champion Atlanta Falcons won their season opener 23-17 at Chicago. The two teams meet Sunday night in Atlanta, for the Falcons' first regular season game in their new home, the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Packers most recent visit to Atlanta is one the team would rather forget. Green Bay entered last season's NFC conference championship game on an eight-game winning streak but was never in it against Atlanta, falling behind by 24 points at halftime in a 44-21 blowout. "If you're thinking about last year and talking about last year, you're just wasting time and energy," Packers head coach Mike McCarthy said. The Falcons will be looking to beat Green Bay for the third time in just 11 months, as they squeezed out a 33-32 victory at home last October on a last-minute TD pass from Matt Ryan

Green Bay: The Packers may have scored just 17 points against the Seahawks in Week 1 but Aaron Rodgers threw for 311 yards (had one TD pass and one INT). RB Ty Montgomery had 93 total yards and a touchdown, while WRs Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson combined for 16 receptions and a score last week. Defensively, the Packers held Seattle to just 225 yards of total offense on 12 FDs (3 for 12 on 3rd down), while getting three sacks and forcing a fumble. Green Bay's offense helped the defense by dominating the T.O.P. battle. 39:13-to-20:47.

Atlanta: While the Packers earned an impressive victory against a fellow NFC powerhouse last week, the Falcons needed Brooks Reed's fourth-and-goal sack to hold off the rebuilding Bears, 23-17. However, Falcons head coach Dan Quinn was pleased with the ending, perhaps in no small part because of how his team couldn't hold off the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl. "I wasn't disappointed that we had to go all the way to the end," he said. "Those are kind of the finishes that as a coach you hope you can put your team into some of those spots and have some resiliency there at the end. It took all day, for sure." Ryan connected on an 88-yard scoring strike to TE Austin Hooper in the fourth quarter and finished with 321 yards passing in the season opener. However, The backfield tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman was a big disppointment, combined for only 53 yards rushing on 20 carries in Week 1.

The pick: Ryan has put up huge numbers over the past three matchups against the Packers, passing for 1,055 yards with 11 TDs against just one interception (passed for seven TDs and no picks in LY’s pair of wins over GB). WR Julio Jones torched Green Bay in the NFC title game with nine catches for 180 yards and two scores plus had an 11-catch, 259-yard monster performance against the Packers back in 2014. The again. don't expect Rodgers to take a backseat in this matchup. After all, he has a QB rating of 117.0 in seven matchups against Atlanta, throwing for 29 TD passes against two picks. These two teams have combined for at least 65 points in each of the last three meetings (including LY's NFC title game), so why should it be any different here? Make the Over an 8* play.

The set-up: The New York Jets head to Oakland in Week 2 to take on the Raiders at the Oakland Coliseum. Not much is expected from the Jets in 2017 and that's just what we all saw in Week 1. New York gained just 214 yards (11 FDs) in Buffalo, while the Bills gained 408 yards. The Jets allowed the Bills to rush for 190 yards (4.5 YPC) and were able to only run for 38 yards themselves (2.5 YPC). Maybe the Jest were lucky to lose by just nine points. In contrast, the Raiders impressed in their 26-16 Week 1 at Tennessee. QB Derek Carr, who signed a five-year, $125 million extension with the team this off-season, has clearly recovered nicely from the broken fibula is suffered in Week 16 last season. He completed 22 of 32 passes against the Titans for 262 yards with two TDs and no interceptions. Marshawn Lynch ran for 76 yards against the Titans in his first game following a one-year retirement.

NY Jets: Looking for positives from Week 1, former Raider Josh McCown completed 26-of-39 passes for 187 yards and ran for the Jets' lone TD versus the Bills. His top target was Jermaine Kearse, who had seven catches for 59 yards in his debut with the club. However, RBs Matt Forte and Bilal Powell MUST do better. The good news is that they are very capable and have a history of being effective players. Maybe New York's best performances in Week 1 came from its kickers. Chandler Catanzaro converted a pair of long FGs (48 & 52 yards) plus had three kickoffs go for touchbacks. Punter Lachlan Edwards averaged 43.7 yards on six punts.

Oakland: The Raiders' 12-4 record in 2016 ended 13 consecutive non-winning and playoff-less seasons for Oakland (going back to the 2002 season, when the Raiders lost to the Bucs in the Super Bowl). Expectations were high coming into 2017 and the team's Week 1 performance at Tennessee may have cured any doubters. Carr was excellent (see above), completing passes to eight different receivers, with Michael Crabtree making a team-high six catches for 83 yards. Speaking of special teams play, Oakland just may have found a suitable replacement for Sebastian Janikowski, who has been placed on injured reserve with a back injury. Giorgio Tavecchio, who was 9-for-11 on FG attempts during the preseason, converted all four of his attempts against Tennessee, including a pair from 52 yards out. His performance earned him the AFC Special Teams Player of the Week honor.

The pick: Oakland's Derek Carr has a high-quality WR duo in Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree plus a good TE in Jared Cook. Lynch may have turned back the clock and will at worst, vastly improve the rushing game in 2017. As for Josh McCown, he no longer owns a legit deep threat, as the Jets could arguably own the worst offense in the NFL after discarding their top play-makers prior to the start of this season. All that said, aren't we asking an awful lot from this Oakland team? There was just one double-digit favorite in Week 1 (Steelers closed minus-10 at the Browns) and here in Week 2, Oakland (about a two-TD favorite over the Jets), is the lone double-digit favorite of Week 2. Note that the Steelers barely eked out a three-point win over the Browns in Week 1 and the next-highest favorite in Week 1 was the Pats. In case you have forgotten, the Pats were routed 42-27 at home vs. the Chiefs, as a nine-point choice. Take the huge points and make the Jets a 10* play.

The pick: New England is a remarkable 42-6 SU following a loss since 2004 and plays its first road game of 2017 here, after going a perfect 8-0 on the road last season. As noted above, Brees acknowledged "a sense of urgency." Here's why. Another slow start could prove devastating to the Saints. New Orleans has failed to make the playoffs in each of the past three seasons. The Saints started 0-2 in 2014, 0-3 in 2015 and 0-3 last season. In fact, since owning an 11-5 record back on Dec. 29, 2013, the Saints have gone 1,358 days without a winning record. Can the Saints win on Sunday? New England's 'bounce-back' history says no but Brees is averaging 357.7 YPG passing in his last 15 home games. On the other side, anyone NOT think Brady will have something to prove off that embarrassment against the Chiefs? Make the Over an 8* play.

The set up: The Philadelphia Eagles will venture into Arrowhead Stadium for a Week 2 game with the Kansas City Chiefs. It's a 'family reunion' of sorts, as new Philly head coach Doug Pederson played for Andy Reid (current KC head coach) in Green Bay and Philadelphia, before joining his coaching staffs with the Eagles and Chiefs. Pederson was Reid’s offensive coordinator in Kansas City from 2013-15, so he has a great understanding of the team's offense. The Eagles won 30-17 at Washington last Sunday but no team's Week 1 win was more impressive than KC's season-opening win 42-27 at New England, as nine-point underdogs.

Philadelphia: QB Carson Wentz had a strong opener, going 26-of-39 for 307 yards with two TDs and an interception. However, the Eagles will need more from the running game, as LeGarrette Blount finished with only 46 yards on 14 carries against Washington (Eagles ran for only 58 yards as a team on 2.4 YPC!). A juiced-up pass rush harried Washington's Kirk Cousins all game, accounting for four sacks. The defense forced four turnovers in Week 1, including one fumble recovery which was returned 20 yards for a TD.

Kansas City: Andy Reid went against type in allowing Alex Smith to 'fire deep' against the Pats and it paid huge dividends. Smith completed 28 of 35 for 368 yards (4 TDs / 0 INTs / 148.6 QB rating) plus rookie RB Karrem Hunt ran for 148 yards and a TD (8.7 YPC) and caught five passes, including a 78-yard TD. WR Hill had seven catches for 133 yards, including a 75-yard TD. Then there was the KC defense which held Brady without a TD pass on 36 attempts (just 16 completions).

The pick: Would it be possible for the Chiefs to match their Week 1 performance? I think not and that improved Philly defense (especially its ability to pressure the QB), may make it very difficult (if not impossible) for Alex Smith to repeat his Week 1 performance. Philly QB Wentz is playing with an upgraded roster on both sides of the ball and let's note that this second-year player is now a perfect 4-0 SU & ATS in September games. Can you say upset? Make the Eagles an 8* play.

The set-up: The Houston Texans and Cincinnati Bengals each flopped badly at home in their respective 2017 season-openers. The Texans, as 5 1/2-point favorites over the Jags, lost 29-7 and the Bengals, as a three-point favorite over the Ravens, lost 20-0. The Texans gained just 203 total yards (the Jags' 10 sacks were a huge part of that!), while Cincy QB Andy Dalton threw four INTs (plus lost a fumble for five total TOs!), as the Bengals gained only 221 yards and got shut out at home for the first time since 2001.

Houston: The Texans traded up in the first round of the 2017 Draft and selected Clemson QB Deshaun Watson 12th overall, but head coach Bill O'Brien stood firm on his commitment to fourth-year veteran Tom Savage as his starting signal-caller, citing both experience and familiarity with the offense as primary reasons behind that decision. However, Savage's "experience" resume stated that he had only played in five career games with just 92 passes attempts and (zero career TD passes! It was fair to say choosing Savage as the starter qualified as an "interesting choice." Thirty minutes into the first game of the season, O'Brien flip-flopped, benching Savage at the half of the Texans' embarrassing 29-7 home loss. Savage was 7 of 13 for 62 yards (0 TDs / 0 INTs) and was sacked six times and the Texans trailed 19-0. O'Brien felt that the mobile Watson could effectively elude pressure and provide the Texans a sorely needed offensive spark. However, the Jaguars sacked Watson four times and he was just 12 of 23 for 102 yards with a TD and an INT. Houston's rushing attack mustered just 93 yards.

Cincinnati: The Bengals managed a measly 221 total yards on 58 plays with Andy Dalton 'laying an egg.' It was a woeful performance by the vet, as he completed 16 of 31 for 170 yards with five turnovers (4 INTs). He posted a 28.4 QB rating, delivering his worst showing since Nov. 6, 2014, when he passed for 86 yards with three interceptions in a 24-3 loss to the Cleveland Browns. For all the promise assigned to rookie RB Joe Mixon, he produced just nine yards on eight carries in his debut. The Bengals' amassed only 77 yards rushing (3.5 YPC) as a team. The defense was fine, as Flacco completed just 9 of 17 for 121 yards (1 TD / 1 INT). Yes, the Ravens did rush for 157 yards but averaged just 3.7 YPC.

The pick: Lost in the abysmal performance by Dalton was the solid play of Cincinnati's defense. However, can one really trust Dalton to bounce back against a quality Houston defense? Remember, the Texans led the NFL in yards allowed last season (301.3 YPG), despite All-Pro defensive end J.J. Watt missing all but three games. Also, Cincy's running game needs to get straightened out. Deshaun Watson will be Houston's starter on Thursday and I expect him to really test that Cincy D. Also, let's not ignore that Houston has won seven of the last eight meetings between these two teams (including the postseason) and held Cincinnati to 10 points (in 2016) and six points (in 2015) in wins these last two seasons. Make Houston a 8* play.

The set-up: The NFL serves up a MNF doubleheader with the New Orleans Saints visiting the Minnesota in the first half. One can't ignore the irony, as after serving as the face of the Minnesota Vikings' franchise for the majority of his 10-year career, Adrian Peterson brings his new club, the New Orleans Saints, into U.S. Bank Stadium on Monday night. The 2012 NFL MVP hopes to show his-former team that he still has plenty left in the tank. "Of course I want to stick it to them. I want to stick it to everyone we play," the 32-year-old Peterson told the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. "But going back to Minnesota, playing the Vikings? Yeah, I want to stick it to them."

New Orleans: The Saints won the Super Bowl in 2009 and through 2013, made the playoffs in four of five years. However, last year's 7-9 season marked the third straight year New Orleans has gone exactly 7-9, naturally missing the playoffs each time. The Saints finished the preseason with a 2-2 record and opens 2017 with Drew Brees at QB for another season. Brees put up yet another 5,000 yard season, throwing for 5,208 yards, 37 TDs and 15 INTs. WR Brandin Cook is now in New England but Michael Thomas was terrific in his rookie season of 2016 (will hope to replicate the success from his rookie season in 2016 (92 catches for 1137 yards with 9 TDs). Ted Ginn Jr. joins the fray to add a speed threat for the Saints on the outside (also adds as a special-teamer). We know this, that like Brady, Brees has "made do" with whomever lines up as his pass-catchers over his career. The "unknown" is, where will Adrian Peterson fit in the offense? Many expect Mark Ingram to lead the ground game for the Saints heading into the season, after coming off career highs in rushing yards (1,043), yards from scrimmage (1,362) and total TDs (10). New Orleans' defense has languished near the bottom of the NFL for the last three seasons, including a 31st rank in points allowed in 2016 at 28.4. Enough said.

Minnesota: The Vikings made the postseason in 2015 (can anyone forget their hard-breaking loss to Seattle in that one?), although that was the team's lone winning season from from 2013 through 2016 (went 8-8 last year). Mike Zimmer had been a preseason 'monster,' going 12-1 in his first three seasons as Minnesota's head coach but this year's team went 2-2 this preseason. Sam Bradford benefited from a short-yardage passing game to set an NFL record for completion percentage last season (71.6%), due in large part to the team's inability to run the ball. Minnesota hopes it has addressed its sputtering running game by selecting Florida State's Dalvin Cook in the second round of the 2017 draft and acquiring Latavius Murray in the off-season (TBD). However, Minnesota boasted five Pro Bowl selections on its defense which ranked third in the league last season in yards allowed per game (314.9 per). The Vikings return nearly every starter.

The pick: The Vikings shocked everyone by opening 5-0 SU & ATS in 2016 but a Week 6 bye seemingly derailed their season. After returning, Minnesota finished 3-8 SU & 4-7 ATS. I, for one, believe the team's 5-0 start was a 'mirage' and the rest of Minnesota's season is what we will see more of in 2017. Historically, the Saints have been a great home team but a poor road one. However, that was surely NOT the case in 2016, as the Saints were a highly-profitable 7-1 ATS on the road, including 6-1 as a road dog (note: Saints are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games). Is this strictly an offense vs. defense matchup? Not so fast. The New Orleans' defense made some good additions and played with improved resolve in the preseason. Take the points and make the Saints a 10* play.

The set-up: The Dallas Cowboys will host the New York Giants to cap off a busy "Opening Day" of NFL action as the two long-time NFC East rivals meet in AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas) for Sunday Night Football on NBC. Here's the big news and I'll copy it directly from reports. Federal judge Amos Mazzant granted a request by the NFL Players Association on Friday for a temporary restraining order and preliminary injunction to prevent the implementation of the six-game suspension for Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott was already eligible to play in Sunday's season opener against the New York Giants, but his suspension for violating the league's personal conduct policy was to begin Monday. With the injunction granted, Elliott likely will be able to continue playing as the legal process plays out.

NY Giants: New York rebounded from three consecutive losing seasons to earn its first postseason berth since 2011, sparked by a defense that led the NFC with an average of 17.8 PPG allowed, almost 10 points per game less than it allowed in 2015 (27.6). The Giants also went from last in the entire NFL in yards allowed (420.3 per game) to 10th at 339.7 YPG. QB Eli Manning threw for 26 TDs against 16 INTs, while reaching 4,000 yards (4,027) for the sixth time in his career, despite a running game that averaged only 88.3 YPG (29th) and produced a league-worst six rushing TDs. The Giants added two pieces to the passing game by signing six-time Pro Bowler Brandon Marshall and making rookie TE Evan Engram their first-round draft pick out of .OBJ is coming off huge season, catching a career-high 101 passes for 10 TDs but his status remains unknown for this contest, after a preseason injury.

Dallas: Rookies Elliott (led NFL in rushing with 1,631 yards) and Prescott (23 TDs against only four INTs for a 104.9 QB rating) led Dallas to last year's 13-3 (10-6 ATS) record. Now, both seem to be ready for a sophomore encore. the Dallas D allowed 343.9 YPG which ranked 14th but more importantly, held opponents to just 19.1 PPG, fifth-best in the NFL. However, the Cowboys will be missing three defensive linemen due to suspension on Sunday night..

The pick: The Cowboys were 7-1 at home last season but that lone loss came to the Giants 20-19 in Week 1 at Dallas, Then, New York held Dallas to 260 yards in defeating the Cowboys 10-7 in Week 14 at MetLife Stadium, completing the season sweep. Note that Elliott was held to 162 yards on the ground in two meetings against the Giants in 2016. If anyone in the league can "tough-talk" the Cowboys, it could be the Giants. New York held Dallas's powerful offense in check both times last year (to 19 and 7 points!) but also note, the Giants scored just 20 and 10 points, themselves. Make the Under an 8*

The set-up: The Indianapolis Colts and the Los Angeles Rams will be kicking off their NFL season at LA's Memorial Coliseum on Sunday afternoon. The Colts lost their first two preseason games against the Lions (24-10) and Cowboys (24-19), but won the final two against the Steelers (19-15) and Bengals (7-6). Indy is off back-to-back 8-8 seasons, both affected by Andrew Luck's injury woes. The Rams' return to LA didn't go well in 2016, as they lost 11 of their last 12 games to finish 4-12. The Rams have now missed the playoffs for 12 straight years and recorded 13 straight non-winning seasons (8-8 in both 2006 and 2004). The Rams won their first two preseason games, 13-10 over the Cowboys and 24-21 over the Raiders but then dropped their last two, 21-19 versus the Chargers and 24-10 in Green Bay.

Indianapolis: The Colts will be without star QB Andrew Luck against the Rams. Scott Tolzien will make his fourth career start in place of Luck. Tolzien's main target will be T.Y. Hilton, who led the NFL last year with 1,448 receiving yards and is one of four players in league history with at least 850 yards and five touchdown catches in each of his first five seasons. Frank Gore rushed for 1,025 yards last season, becoming the first Indianapolis running back to reach the 1,000-yard plateau since Joseph Addai accomplished the feat in 2007. Gore is looking to become the fifth player in NFL history to hit the mark in 10 different campaigns.

LA Rams: New head coach Sean McVay will step in and look to reverse what's been a losing situation for the Rams. It doesn't help that Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald (the team's top defensive player) is expected to miss Week 1 as he continues to hold out for a new contract. Los Angeles' defense ranked ninth in the league last season but figures to struggle without Donald - something new coordinator Wade Phillips will attempt to avoid. RB Todd Gurley had 1,212 yards from scrimmage in 2016, marking the second straight season he has registered at least 1,200. WR Austin is a triple threat, after a season in which he had 52 catches for 509 yards (3 TDs), gained 364 yards on 44 punt returns and added 159 yards and a score on 28 rushes. Last year's overall No. 1 pick, Jared Goff, opens the season as the starter (54.6% with 5-7 ratio & 63.6 QB rating in 2016).

The pick: The Colts' D is among the bottom-half of all defenses but the Rams owned the NFL's worst offense in 2016, averaging league-lows in both points (14.0) and yards (262.7). The jury is still out on Goff and he will take the field Sunday, 0-7 as an NFL starter. In losing 11 of their last 12 games in 2016, the Rams went 1-10-1 ATS in those contests. After a 9-3 Week 2 shocker over Seattle, the Rams lost their final seven home games, going 0-6-1 ATS. No way Rams should be laying points. Make Indy an 8* play.

Wiped out. Will do MNF Sunday morning along with MLB. Then it's off to a 'safe house' to ride out Irma.

The set-up: The Houston Texans are off back-to-back playoff appearances, including the franchise's first-playoff win last year. Even though Houston has made a postseason
appearance in four of the last six seasons, Sunday's 2017 opener looms as one of this team's most important games. The final obstacle standing between the Texans and a desired return to normalcy was cleared this past Monday when the franchise announced that its regular season opener against the Jacksonville Jaguars would be played as originally scheduled at NRG Stadium on Sunday. The Texans can now get down to the business of to giving the city of Houston, devastated by the effects of Hurricane Harvey, a sense of hope by beating the Jaguars. The Jags may be the perfect foil, as since an 8-8 season back in 2010, the Jags own six consecutive losing ones, going 22-74 (.229), overall.

Jacksonville: Yes, the Jags have a string of six consecutive losing seasons but the team is far from pessimistic about 2017. The defense ranked sixth in yards allowed in 2016 (321.7 YPG) but gave up 25.0 PPG due to poor offensive production and a minus-16 TO ratio (third-worst in the NFL). The addition of RB Leonard Fournette and WR Dede Westbrook in the draft is good news but the QB position is, to say the least, iffy. Jacksonville needs solid QB play to take the next step but after a huge drop-off in his 2016 performance (off a promising 2015 one), Bortles didn't showcase that improvement in the preseason. With a chance to move ahead of Bortles in the preseason, veteran Chad Henne failed to do so.

Houston: The Texans traded embattled QB Brock Osweiler before the draft, then took Clemson's Deshaun Watson with the 12th overall pick. However, Tom Savage will get the start at QB. He has just two starts under his belt, both coming last season when starter Brock Osweiler proved too ineffective to maintain the charade of his reliability and trust. Savage has only played in five career games and attempted just 92 passes (zero career TD passes!) It's fair to say choosing Savage as the starter qualifies as an "interesting choice." All-Pro defensive end J.J. Watt missed all but three games last season after undergoing two back operations but Houston still led the NFL in yards allowed (301.3 YPG). Think his return will hurt?

The pick: Doug Marrone, who was 15-17 in two seasons with the Bills and served as interim coach for the final two games last season for Jacksonville, is the Jaguars' fifth head coach. I have to wonder what he really offers and will Bortles be able to focus on his play, while blocking out that noise of disappointment from fans? Houston has won six straight in the series, meaning Bortles has yet to beat this Romeo Crennel-led defense (note: Jags are just 2-22 on the road the last three seasons, overall!). Bortles has just six TD passes vs. eight picks in those games. I'd rather see Clemson rookie Deshaun Watson at QB but for this matchup with Jacksonville, Savage appears to be a serviceable option. Make Houston an 8* play.

The set-up: The Jets were 5-11 last season and will open their 2017 season in Buffalo against the Bills, who finished last year 7-9. The Jets are the bigger 'mess' right now but no team in the NFL owns a longer playoff drought than the Bills, who have not made the postseason since 1999 (18-year drought). This will be the 114th regular-season meeting between the two teams (Bills hold a 59-53 advantage). However, what was once a bitter, nasty AFC East rivalry, is now no more than an afterthought.

NY Jets: This team has gotten rid of most of its offensive veterans and then traded its star player on defense, Sheldon Richardson, just last week to the Seahawks. The 38-year-old Josh McCown played fairly well in the second half of last season with the Cleveland Browns and becomes the Jets' starting QB. However, he did not epect to have much help from his receiving corps, and that was before Quincy Enunwa was lost to a season-ending neck injury in the off-season. Aging running back Matt Forte and all-purpose threat Bilal Powell are the team's top play-makers. All-in-all, New York's defense hung in there last year, allowing 342.4 YPG to rank 11th in total D.

Buffalo: First-year head coach Sean McDermott said he intends to lean heavily on dual-threat running back LeSean McCoy (1,267 rush yards & 13 TDs plus 50 receptions last season). That would make sense and he's also happy to see that Tyrod Taylor cleared concussion protocol just in time to get the nod at QB. Taylor completed 61.7% for 3023 yards last season plus ran for 580 (6.1 YPC) and six more TDs. Rex Ryan was supposed to be a defensive gluru but Buffao's defense ranked behind that of New York's last season, allowing 357.0 YPG (19th).

The pick: Due to the lack of offensive weapons on both sides, this game looks to be a low-scoring affair and that favors the underdog Jets. Let's also not forget that the Jets beat the Bills in both of last year's meetings, 37-31 in a Week 2 Thursday night game at home and then 31-10 up in Buffalo in Week 17. Grab the points and make the Jets a 10* play.

The set-up: The defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots open up the 2017 NFL season Thursday at Gillette Stadium against the Kansas City Chiefs, Thursday night on NBC. The Pats were 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS this preseason plus saw Julian Edelman go down with a season-ending injury. The Chiefs, coming off a 12-4 record in 2016 (won AFC West), were 2-2 SU & ATS this preseason.

Kansas City: Andy Reid has led the Chiefs to the playoffs in three of his four seasons in KC (arrived in 2013), winning 11, 11 and 12 games in his postseason years, while missing in 2014 at 9-7. The offense will look similar to last year's unit with Alex Smith at QB (1st-round pick Pat Mahomes II is in the wings) plus WR Tyreek Hill doing a little bit of everything and TE Travis Kelce continuing to prove he's one of the best at his position in the NFL. RB Spencer Ware may be lost for the season (injured in Week 3 of the preseason) but a combination of Kareem Hunt, Charcandrick West and C.J. Spiller may work. The Chiefs own one of the best secondary’s in the league and in Reid's four season has allowed 19.1, 17.6, 17.9 and 19.4 PPG.

New England: Sure, Edelman's loss hurts but hasn't Tom Brady consistently been great under almost all circumstances? The addition of deep-threat WR Brandin Cooks from the Saints plus a now-healthy Gronk will surely give him ample targets. Defensively, the Patriots allowed a league-low 250 points last year (15.6 per) and have three all-pros from a year ago in Devin McCourty, Malcolm Butler and Dont'a Hightower.

The pick: The Pats, including the postseason, were 16-3 ATS last season and enter 2017 having lost only four regular season home games since the 2014 season. However, the Chiefs have gone 12-7 ATS as underdogs under Reid plus open the 2017 on a six-game road winning streak from 2016. Take the points and make the Chiefs a 10* play.

The pick: New England owns the big-game pedigree, the superior defense, a well-balanced offense led by Brady and Belichick has had two weeks of preparation. The Falcons are not used to this kind of buildup and media attention, while its defense ranked 27th in points allowed (25.4 PPG), 25th in yards allowed (371.2 YPG), were 26th in third-down defense and last in red-zone defense. Bottom line is this. Brady’s "redemption tour" has now reached the Super Bowl and one could argue that this will be Brady’s biggest game of his long and magnificent career. He has a chance to stamp his reputation as the G.O.A.T. Don't bet against him. New England is a 10* play.

The pick: For all the talk about New England's offense, the Patriots permitted a league-low 15.6 PPG in the regular season, as the Pats held six of their last seven opponents to 17 points or less. Then came the playoffs, holding Houston to 16 points and Pittsburgh to 17. However, Holding teh Falcons in check is quite another story, as this is teh best offense the NFL has seen since teh 2007 Pats. As for the Pats, Brady wants badly to be there when Goodell hands over the Lombardi Trophy and just how will Atlanta's suspect defense slow down the Pats? The Over is a 10* play.

The pick: So what we have is two playoff-tested QBs leading offenses which can score but both face defensive units at the top of their respective games. Let me note that the Steelers haven’t faced a strong offense or an elite QB since November and this elite QB (Brady), is coming off a very un-Brady-like performance. Brady was suspended for the Pats' first three home games but in the six he's played this year (including last weekend), New England has averaged 31,7 PPG. The Steelers weren't able to finish off drives against KC (settled for six FGs) but in order to stay close to New England, the Steelers will have to put the ball in the end zone. I'm not about to buck New England at home but also I'm not willing to lay this many points to a team on a nine-game winning streak. Instead, the Over is a 10* play.

Dallas: Dak Prescott was the steal of the NFL draft as a fourth-round selection and he's made everyone in Big D forget about Tony Romo. He completed 67.8% of his passes for 3,667 yards with 23 TDs and just four INTs, while running for six scores, Prescott and RB Ezekiel Elliott, may be the best one-two rookie combo in NFL history. Elliott led the NFL with 1,631 rushing yards (on 5.1 YPC with 15 TDs). The Cowboys have controlled the line of scrimmage offensively, by rushing for 149.8 YPG (2nd) on 4.8 YPC. The Dallas D ranks first in rushing yards allowed (83.5 YPG on only 3.9 YPC) and while the secondary has been a problem, teh Cowboys finished the regular season 5th in points allowed (19.1 PPG).

The pick: "They were off last week, and they're hosting the game (Sunday), so there's extra pressure on them as the No. 1 seed to win," Rodgers told reporters. "And we're coming in with a lot of confidence and riding the streak. We're feeling good about the way we've been playing." Maybe we should trust Rodgers, as proved to be a man of his word when he told reporters that the Green Bay Packers were capable of running the table to secure a playoff bid when the team was just 4-6. Seven wins later and here they are. Rodgers has thrown 19 TDs and not a single interception in Green Bay's streak (Packers haven't turned the ball over in their last five games). Meanwhile, The Cowboys were just 1-5 ATS their last six games of the regular season and Dallas owns an 'ugly' playoff resume since the team's last Super Bowl win (after the 1995 season), going 3-8 SU. Make Green Bay a 10* play.

Houston: The Texans won the AFC South with a 9-7 record and then knocked off fifth-seeded Oakland 27-14 in the wild card round last weekend. Of course, the Raiders were playing with a third-string QB in that game as well, in Connor Cook. The rookie from Michigan State made his first-ever career start and was clearly not ready fro primetime, passing for just 161 yards and a TD. He had three INTs and completed only 18 of 45 passes. Houston allowed the fewest yards in the NFL this season (301.3 YPG) but it's fair to assume that Brady and Co. will present a much tougher test. QB Brock Osweiler reclaimed his starting job when Tom Savage suffered a concussion in Week 17 and if one listened to color analyst John Gruden, played like Joe Montana against the Raiders. However, the stat sheet says he threw for 168 yards and a TD (no INTs) plus ran for 15 yards and another score. Another one of Gruden's 'greats' was RB Lamar Miller, who 'shredded' the Oakland defense for 73 yards on 31 carries (that's 2.4 YPC). You remember Jim Brown, don't you? I swear it was him out there.

New England: Brady sat out the season's first four games (you may have heard why) but returned to throw for 3,554 yards in just 12 games, completing 67.4 percent with 28 TDs and two INTs (112.2 QB rating). Most of that came without Gronk but with Brady, it just never seems to matter who his receivers are. Julian Edelman made a team-high 98 catches for a receiving corps that has been bolstered by waiver-wire acquisition Michael Floyd and expects to have Danny Amendola back on Saturday. No one replaces Gronk but TE Martellus Bennett has 55 catches (second-most of his nine seasons) plus a career-high seven TD catches. RB Blount ran for a career-high 1,161 yards and had 18 rushing TDs (led the league). For all the talk about New England's offense, the Patriots permitted a league-low 15.6 PPG and ranked third in rushing defense (88.6 YPG) on 3.9 YPC. The Pats held six of their last seven opponents to 17 points or less.

The pick: A win on Saturday and the Pats will become the first team since the merger to advance to six straight conference title games. No one is taking the Texans on the moneyline so it's, "can Houston cover or not?" The Patriots are 7-1 all-time against Houston, including 4-0 at home, and have won their last two meetings with the Texans by a combined score of 54-6. New England comes in having outscored its last three opponents 92-20 and catch Houston, a warm-weather team, playing in the cold night air of Foxboro. Yes, the pointspread borders on the 'obscene' but Ryan Fitzpatrick was the only starting QB to finish with a lower QB rating than Brock Osweiler and during the regular season, Houston averaged just 17.4 PPG on 314.7 YPG (both ranked 29th of 32 teams). As noted, it's not just Brady and the offense, as the Pats finished strong, to lead the league in fewest PPG (15.6), as the Pats allowed 12.4 PPG if you start from Week 11. Lay the points and make New England a 10* play.

The pick: The Falcons have had the way more consistent year but this is the playoffs. Wilson is 8-3 in his postseason career, leading the Seahawks to two Super Bowls, a rout of the Broncos and then that inexplicable loss to the Pats, the following year. Yes, Ryan could very well be this year's MVP but that last-second 30-28 win back in 2012 was his only playoff victory, as he's 1-4 all-time. Guess what? Wilson had his career high with 385 passing yards in that playoff loss to the Falcons back in 2012!. Take the points and make Seattle an 8* play.

THIS PLAY WAS INTENDED TO BE ON THE OVER....INCORRECTLY ENTERED!

The set-up: The 10-5 Atlanta Falcons have clinched the NFC South title but can still claim the No. 2 NFC seed and earn a week off when they host the 7-8 New Orleans Saints on Sunday in the final regular-season game at the Georgia Dome. As for the Saints, they are just looking to avoid a third straight 7-9 season. 

The pick: The Bills will miss the postseason for an NFL-high 17th consecutive year but they are a much better team than the Jets. Buffalo has won and covered five of the last six in this series, with that lone loss during the span coming back in that Week 2 game. That gives the Bills some revenge motivation and despite the team's sub-.500 record, the Bills have outscored opponents by 41 points. In contrast, the Jets’ scoring differential of minus-154 points is better than just the 1-14 Browns and 2-13 Niners. The Jets also have the worst turnover ratio in the NFL at minus-23. New York has forced only two turnovers since Week 8 and the team has the second-fewest sacks in the league (24). The Jets haven’t been this dysfunctional since the days of Rich Kotite and their last three losses have been by an average of 30.0 PPG. Buffalo is an 8* play.

The pick: It's already been noted that Detroit has a poor running game and how will it get going against Dallas' No. 1 rush D, allowing 80.9 YPG? Stafford is not 100% and the Lions enter having averaged just 17.5 PPG their last four and now face a Dallas D allowing only 18.4 PPG (4th) on the season. Led by Elliott, Dallas ranks 2nd in rushing at 154.5 YPG and likely will play relatively conservatively. The Under is a 10* play.

The pick: the Steelers are out for a measure of revenge in this as noted by offensive tackle Marcus Gilbert. "We lost the first game," he said. "This game is going to be ours, it's at our field. I'm excited, man. This is why we play the game of football." The Steelers have greatly improved since the last meeting with the Ravens and are riding a five-game winning streak, their longest since 2009. Le'Veon Bell leads the NFL with 158.8 yards from scrimmage per game and his 1,146 rushing yards are third-best in the league despite serving a three-game suspension to begin the season. Bell was limited to 32 yards rushing against Baltimore in Week 9 but that will change on Sunday. The Ravens were able to take advantage of a rusty Ben Roethlisberger after he had just returned from knee surgery when they defeated Pittsburgh in Week 9 but "Big Ben" is healthy now. The Steelers have covered 12 of their past 14 December games. Make Pittsburgh a 10* play.

complete analysis by Saturday