The set-up: I think this is a great situational play. The Bengals are 0-3 and the Steelers are 0-3. For all intents and purposes, these two teams are already planning ahead to next season. The Steelers looked horrible even before starting QB Ben Roethlisberger went down with injury. Last week Big Ben’s backup Mason Rudolph looked horrible against the 49ers and I don’t see anything changing here vs. the Bengals’ hungry defense. 

The pick: As mentioned off the top, even with Roethlisberger in the line-up, the Steelers’ offense looked poor. The Steelers are getting poor play from RB James Conner as well, who is averaging only 2.9 YPC. The Bengals almost beat the Seahawks and the Bills on the road (fumbles in the closing moments ruined the outright victory,) and it’s been because of their defensive play. I think both teams concentrate on the run as well while on offense as they try to control this contest and limit mistakes. Taking into account all of the above situational factors, I’m going to play the under.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the under Bengals/Steelers.

The set-up: I think the Bucs are going to have a hard time moving the ball vs. this improved Rams’ defensive front. The Bucs are 1-2 and on the ropes in a tough division, while the Rams are 3-0. LA’s offense has yet to get untracked though, as their win last week on Sunday Night was anything but spectacular vs. the Rams. LA’ QB Jared Goff is definitely suffering an early season letdown compared to last year’s numbers. Jameis Winston has been hit or miss early and I think his struggles on the road continues here. 

The pick: Tampa’s defense has been much better with Todd Bowles directing the unit and it’ll be looking to get after Goff early and often. In fact note that the Bucs have the league’s sack leader in Shaq Barrett. Also note that LA RB Todd Gurley continues to struggle with consistency as well after returning from injury late last year. This one has defensive battle written all over it in my opinion. 

10* NON-CONF TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the under Bucs/Rams.

The set-up: I simply don’t think the Dolphins are as bad as this spread would suggest (despite being 0-3 and their earlier results.) I also don’t think that the Chargers are nearly as good as what this spread would suggest. Especially on the road, a place where they’ve always had a difficult time. While I’m not calling for an outright victory, I do definitely feel that this spread is much too large. The Chargers come in off back-to-back losses of their own. Josh Rosen makes his second start as the starting QB for Miami and I think he’ll benefit from last week’s experience. 

The pick: LA won’t get RB Melvin Gordon back in the line-up until next week and while Austin Ekeler has been decent in a back-up role, I still think the visitors are stretched thin here. Also note that the Chargers are a poor 1-3 ATS in their last four as a favorite of ten points or more, while the Dolphins are 3-1 ATS in their last four after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Fish.

8* SUPER DOG DESTROYER on the Miami Dolphins.

The set-up: The Raiders beat the Broncos at home in Week 1, but they’ve since dropped two straight. So far Raiders’ QB Derek Carr has four TD’s and three INT’s. With an upcoming game in London England, the road ahead isn’t going to get any easier for Carr and company, who will clearly be given the green light from start to finish in this one. The Colts have done better than expected with Jacoby Brissett, who currently has 646 passing yards with seven TD’s and one INT. 

The pick: On paper the Colts are the better team. But the Raiders have talent and they’re definitely the “hungrier” dog in this fight. The Colts come in complacent in my opinion and note that they’re just 2-6 ATS in their last eight after two or more consecutive wins vs. the spread. The Raiders have struggled in most ATS categories the last few seasons, but note that they’re 5-1 ATS in their last six after allowing 30 points or more in their previous outing. I’m banking on a “nail-biter.” Grab the points. 

8* UPSET SPECIAL on the Oakland Raiders.

The set-up: The Chiefs’ offense is fantastics, but I’m still uncertain about their defense. The Lions have been much better than expected this season (on both sides of the ball) and I think they will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. The Chiefs come to town content at 3-0 and off their 33-28 home win over the Ravens last Sunday. Patrick Mahomes now has 1,195 yards, ten TD’s and no INT’s this year. 

The pick: But I think Mahomes confidence gets the better of him today. The Lions are a dangerous non-conference opponent, especially at home and without question on the defensive side, holding teams to only 269.3 passing yards per game and only four TD’s over the first three contests. The Chiefs allow 395 total yards per game, including 258 through the air. Veteran Lions’ QB Matt Stafford has 831 passing yards with six TD’s and two INT’s. The Chiefs have a terrible run defense, so keep your eyes on Kerryon Johnson and CJ Anderson as well for the home side. This is a trap game for KC and I think it falls hook, line and sinker right into it. Grab the points.

9* PLAY-BOOK on the Detroit Lions. 

The set-up: Last year these team’s split two very close games which were decided by a combined five points. I don’t think anything will change this season either between these division rivals. The Ravens’ offense looks decent behind Lamar Jackson, who has 863 yards passing and seven TD’s. But the Ravens are in a letdown spot after their first loss of the year last week, falling 33-28 in Kansas City. Yes the Browns are only 1-2, but they’ve looked a lot better after their poor Week 1 performance/collapse vs. the Titans. Cleveland looked great last week I thought despite falling 20-13 at home to the high-powered Rams. Bayker Mayfield is under an extreme amount of pressure and while he did throw an INT on the four yard line with 33 seconds left, I think he continues to progress and gain confidence as the season progresses. This is a big game for Cleveland, as a win today propels them into a tie for the division lead. 

The pick: Cleveland’s offense is going to break out at some point this year and if not now, when? Cleveland’s defense is ranked 16th overall, allowing 22 PPG. The Ravens average 36 PPG and they concede 20. This isn’t going to be a cake-walk, but the Browns to have the talent in all three phases to hang with the Ravens and when you add on the desperation factor, I wouldn’t in fact be shocked by an outright upset. Note that the Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last four at home and in their last four following a SU loss, while the Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last five following an ATS loss and 7-2 ATS in their last nine following a SU loss. I’m grabbing the points.

10* ULTIMATE BLOWOUT on the Cleveland Browns.

The set-up: Yes the Eagles are “desperate” at 1-2, but they’ve also been terrible for the most part leading into this short week Thursday night contest. Carson Wentz has been good for Philly, but he’s been hampered by the fact that so many of his offensive weapons around him are injured. Five teams sit without a loss in the Eagles’ division and with a chance to deliver the knock out blow, I think the surging home side does just that. With a shot at a 4-0 start, I look for the home side to put the foot on the gas from start to finish. 

The pick: Note that Green Bay has led a half time in each of its three wins. The Packers have jumped out to early leads and maintained because of their incredible defensive play, allowing only 11.7 PPG. I think that Philadelphia struggles here to move the ball vs. this red hot defensive unit and I expect Aaron Rodgers to continue his blistering start to the 2019/20 campaign. All things considered, I feel this line could/should in fact be much larger.

10* SUPER DESTRUCTION on the Green Bay Packers.

The set-up: I’m a situational handicapper (for the most part) and this is a situationally based pick (note, most of my O/U picks, in every sport, or in fact based upon the situation in which each time finds itself coming in.) Chicago is 1-1 after narrowly edging the Broncos. The Bears looked inept vs. the Packers in Week 1 though. Bears’ QB Mitch Trubisky has been shaky at best and he’ll be out to “right the ship” in this favorable matchup. Trubisky and the offense are going to come out and push the pace from start to finish as they look to take advantage of this suspect Skins secondary.

The pick: And it’s do or die essentially for Washington, as an 0-3 hole essentially means that it will already miss the playoffs. While the defense definitely has more questions than answers, note though that the Skins have in fact been decent on the offensive end early, averaging 24.0 PPG, which ranks tenth overall (QB Case Keenum has 601 passing yards, five TD’s and zero INT’s.) Chicago’s defense is impressive, but I believe this games flies over sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the over Bears/Redskins.

The set-up: The Browns bounced back with a big win at the Jets last week after getting destroyed on Opening Night by the Titans. Cleveland got behind early in Week 1 and combined with a series of miscues and penalties, both the offensive and defensive game plans got thrown out the window early. Last week though Cleveland looked a lot better and precise on both sides of the ball. LA is in a three-way tie in the tough NFC West with both Seattle and the 49ers and it’s difficult to say anything negative about it to this point, however the overall situation is working against the visitors today.

The pick: I think LA gets caught “looking ahead” to its game next week for the Seahawks. Cleveland is set up perfectly here to steal this one outright, but in a contest which I see being decided by whichever of these team’s has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points (and note, LA is a poor 4-6 ATS in its last ten as a road favorite of seven points or less, while Cleveland is a solid 4-2 ATS in its last six non-conference games.) Outright isn’t out of the question, but grab the points.

10* SLAUGHTER-FEST on the Cleveland Browns.

The set-up: No outright upset, but I do think that the stage is set for a “nail-biter” in this one. Denver’s 0-2 and desperate. The stats for teams that start the year 0-3 are downright terrible, so for all intents and purposes, the Bronco’s entire season is on the line this week. Green Bay on the other hand enters on the other end of the spectrum by starting 2-0. The Packers were terrible defensively last year, but so far this season they’ve allowed just 9.5 points per game.

The pick: But I think Green Bay’s early defensive numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt. Joe Flacco isn’t the QB he once was, but his veteran experience in this situation is actually a strength for Denver going in. Denver lost in the final seconds to the Bears last week (16-14), but it was under some suspect calls from the refs, which prompted Broncos’ head coach Vic Fangio to remark: “You can’t control the officiating or bad calls.” Note that GB is just 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine following an ATS win, while Denver is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 after allowing more than 150 rushing yards in its previous game. I expect this one to come down to the final moments.

8* play on Denver Broncos.

The set-up: The Eagles have looked terrible so far this year and I think there’s a chance they could lose this one outright as well. Detroit is 1-0-1 after beating LA 13-10 at home last week. Detroit should be 2-0 after it let a late lead slip away in Week 1, as the Lions are looking much better on both sides of the ball, especially defensively. 

The pick: Detroit kept Philip Rivers out of the end zone last week, so Carson Wentz and this struggling Eagles’ offense will not have an easy time today. Last week Wentz was 25 of 43 for 231 yards, a TD and two INT’s. The Eagles’ run game was non-existent as well, with Jordan Howard picking up 18 yards on eight carries. Also note that Philadelphia suffered major injuries to key players last week (DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery and DT Tim Jernigan all listed as day to day.) I think the Lions can smell the blood in the water. Grab the points.

8* play on the Detroit Lions.

The set-up: Two undefeated teams collide on Sunday afternoon and only one will leave with the victory. Unless there’s a tie, which isn’t out of the question in my opinion. Regardless, in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points. KC has won two games on the road, but that was vs. Jacksonville and Oakland. Baltimore has beaten Miami and Arizona. When these teams met in Week 14 last year it was KC that held on for the 27-24 win, making the “revenge scenario” a very real one for Lamar Jackson and the surging Ravens as well. 

The pick: So far Baltimore has outscored its opposition 82-27 this year. Jackson and RB Mark Ingram are going to prove to be too much for this suspect Chiefs’ defense to handle in my opinion. The Chiefs behind QB Patrick Mahomes have outscored their opposition by a 68-36 margin, but the questions on the defensive side of the ball still remain for me. Not so for Baltimore though and while I’m stopping short in calling for the outright upset, I’m definitely going to grab the points in what sets up to be a very competitive battle.

8* play on the Baltimore Ravens.

The set-up: These two teams enter hungry. That’s where the similarities end though, as Cincinnati is essentially in a “must win” scenario at 0-2, while the Bills are looking to build off their improbable 2-0 start. Neither team will be lacking for motivation here and as such, I’m expecting this contest to be extremely wide open. After a tight 21-20 setback in Seattle and then a 41-17 loss to San Francisco, the pressure is clearly on Bengals’ QB Andy Dalton to step up and deliver here. 

The pick: The Bills have gotten great play on both sides of the ball as well, especially from QB Josh Allen, who led his team on four TD drives in their Week 2 victory against the Giants. From a situational stand point, I think it definitely sets up as a “shootout,” but also note that the Bengals have seen the total go over the number in six of their last seven as a road dog of seven points or less, while Buffalo has seen the total soar over in nine of its last 12 at home. This number is a litre low.

8* play on the over Bengals/Bills.

The set-up: It’s a big game for both teams after each won in Week 2. Colts’ QB Jacoby Brissett has five TD’s and just one INT so far this year and the run game has looked decent as well for the Colts behind Marlon Mack. The Falcons looked pretty good in their 24-20 win over the Eagles last week, as ATSL gets production across the board from several key players, including Calvin Ridley, who has 169 receiving yards already. 

The pick: I think it’s interesting to note though that the Falcons lead the league in receiving yards allowed and so far they’ve done a superb job in limiting big plays. The Colts are ranked dead last in the NFL in passing yards per game (147) and I believe their extreme one-dimensionality comes back to bite them here. Grab the points.

8* play on the Atlanta Falcons.

The set-up: Two teams which have gotten out to shaky starts go head to head on Sunday afternoon and because of that, I expect more of a higher-scoring shootout than a lower-scoring battle. Oakland comes in off a 28-10 loss at home to Kansas City and it hits the road for the first time this year. Minnesota enters off a sloppy performance/loss in Green Bay. Dalvin Cook was a bright spot for Minnesota last week, finishing with 154 rushing yards.  

The pick: Oakland heads out on a lengthy road trip, as its only home game in the next five weeks is in London. The Raiders have been getting great production from other members as well, including WR Tyrell Williams, who has 151 yards receiving and two TD’s so far. The Raiders have to be feeling good with RB Josh Jacobs as well, who has 184 rushing yards and two TD’s. The passing defense looked poor vs. Patrick Mahomes though and it’ll be tested again this week by the Vikes’ Kirk Cousins. These two starting QB’s (David Carr and Cousins) both have something to prove this year and after suspect starts to the 2019/20 season. When you add it all up, everything does indeed point to the over as the correct call in this one.

10* TOTAL BLOWOUT ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the over Raiders/Vikings.

The set-up: Not known for their offensive explosiveness for the most part, I do in fact believe that this game’s total will fly over the number sooner, rather than later. Neither team has the luxury to take the foot off the gas tonight and just hope things work out. The Titans are 1-1, while the Jaguars are 0-2. Jacksonville came “oh so close” to an upset in Houston last Sunday, but it wasn’t enough. While both of these team’s games vs. each other went “under” the number last year, I believe the overall conditions that each side finds itself in will finally lend itself to more of a high-scoring shootout. 

The pick: Indeed, despite both game’s totals going under the number last year, five of the last seven between these clubs have gone over the number. Tennessee looked great in its Week 1 demolition of the Browns, but then it had a letdown in last week’s 19-17 loss to the Colts. RB Derrick Henry ate up the Jags last year and he had 81 yards and a TD in last week’s defeat as well. Jacksonville is banged up across the board, but rookie QB Gardner Minshew isn’t going to be lacking for motivation either. When you add up all of the above factors, this number is low in my opinion. 

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Titans/Jags.

The set-up: The Browns were their own worst enemy in Week 1, as several dumb/costly penalties led to an early deficit and they were never mentally able to recover. But Cleveland hasn’t played on Monday night since 2010 and it’ll be out to correct those mistakes and take advantage of this situation (18 penalties for 182 yards.) New York looked poor in Week 1 too though, blowing a 16-0 lead to the Bills at home. But injuries played a big part in New York’s second half collapse, as CJ Moseley and Quinnen Williams both sidelined. 

The pick: And now to make matters worse for New York, QB Sam Darnold has been diagnosed with mononucleosis, meaning that backup Trevor Siemian is being thrust into the spotlight. Baker Mayfield threw three INT’s last week, but that was more out of a sense of desperation with the game already out of reach. I think the Browns defense is the biggest difference maker today. It looked bad last week, but the aforementioned penalties played a big part in that. I think the visitors feast on the Jets’ instability. Lay the points.

10* MONDAY NIGHT MASSACRE on the Cleveland Browns.

The set-up: Philadelphia came from behind to knock off the Redskins 33-27 last weekend, I but I think it’ll struggle in this difficult road venue and against this desperate Falcons side looking to bounce back off a poor 28-12 loss to the Vikes in Week 1. Matt Ryan and the Falcons’ offense looked terrible for most of the game, but they finally found a bit of a rythym near the end of the game and I believe the unit will carry that momentum over here. In a division packed with quality teams, this has for all intents and purposes become a “must win” for ATL this weekend. 

The pick: The Eagles allowed a ghastly 380 yards to Washington’ QB Case Keenum last week and sacked him only once, so if not now for Ryan and the Falcons…when?! 

Atlanta Falcons 7* play

The set-up: Oakland looked better than expected in Week 1 by besting the Broncos 24-16 on Monday night. The Chiefs rolled through the Jags 40-26, but I think they’ll have a more difficult time in their second straight road game to open the season. Note that the win over Jacksonville came at a price as well as WR Tyreek Hill was lost to injury and NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes suffered an ankle injury. It all adds up to a more conservative style from the visitors explosive offense in my opinion. 

The pick: Oakland got big production from its run game in Week 1, with Josh Jacobs finishing with 85 rushing yards and two TD’s. I look for the improved Raiders defense to play a big part in the outcome of this one as well. And additionally note that KC has seen the total go under in nine of its last 13 after plaint its previous game on the road, while Oakland has seen the total dip under in seven of its last ten as a home dog. The overall conditions/factors definitely point to the under as the correct call on the total in this one.

10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the under Chiefs/Raiders.

The set-up: It’s difficult to win and cover on the road, but the Bills did just that at MetLife Stadium last weekend, staging a come from behind win over the Jets. To do it on back-to-back weeks is extremely difficult and only the better teams usually accomplish that. Clearly the Bills aren’t a great team. It’s almost “do or die” now for Eli Manning and com pay after their loss in Week 1. Expect to see a heavy dose of Giants’ RB Saquon Barkley as well, as he looks to ease the pressure off New York’s veteran pivot. 

The pick: The numbers are on our side as well, as note that Buffalo is a poor 3-4 ATS in its last seven off an upset win as an underdog and only 2-4 ATS in its last six non-conference games. Conversely, the Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last five off a road loss vs. a division rival and 3-1 ATS in their last four off a loss by ten points or more to a division rival. Grab the points.

10* VERY EARLY COACH’S CORNER the New York Giants.

The set-up: This is a big game early on for these NFC South opponents and because of that, I believe we’re going to see an all out war from start to finish. This game on the short week just screams defensive battle to me. The Bucs looked inept in their 31-17 loss to the 49ers. Carolina was on its heels early and it could never recover in its 30-27 setback to the Rams. With both divisional teams at 0-1, there’s no question that this sets up as a very important early game for both clubs.

The pick: Cam Newton and Jameis Winston both looked shaky in their respective openers. With both teams looking to protect the ball, to limit turnovers and costly mistakes, from a situational stand point everything clearly points to a lower-scoring affair, but note that the Bucs have seen the total dip under the number in eight of their last ten as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Carolina has seen the total dip under in five of its last six after a loss by six points or less. This number is a little high.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the under.

The set-up: I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on Broncos. Oakland lost its top receiver in Antonio Brown over the weekend in a heated public dispute and I believe it struggles with its focus on Monday night. Denver on the other hand had a new head coach in Vic Fangio, as well as a new QB in veteran Joe Flacco. Combined with the Bronco’s stellar defensive unit, led by Von Miller, I think that the visitors will find a way to get the job done in Week 1. Remember that next year the Raiders leave to Las Vegas anyways, which will be Jon Gruden’s third year into his five year contract. 

The pick: But as mentioned off the top, this really comes down to the recent AB distraction. For months the Raiders have been preparing to have they dynamic receiver in their line-up and now that he’s done, I believe the one week transition period simply is not enough time. Look for Denver’s methodical approach to be the difference here vs. the short-handed home side. 

Denver Broncos 10* money-line

The set-up: It’s a big game for both teams. It’s a big game for many of the individual players today as well. Antonio Brown was cut by the Raiders and he just signed with the Patriots. He’ll be along side the controversial Josh Gordon now. Of course, AB is playing against his former team for the first time as well. The Steelers won’t be lacking for motivation here obviously facing AB and their most heated and  hated rival. Does anyone have more to prove on the field than Ben Roethlisberger? This is also the nationally televised contest, which puts added pressure on everyone. There’s no lack of experience or talent on the field of play today, but I believe the conditions are right for these two “under the radar” defense to “steal the show” in Week 1. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh has seen the total go under the number in 12 of its last 15 on the road, while NE has seen the total dip under in six of its last seven as a home favorite of seven points or less. This one has low-scoring battle written all over it. Play the under.

Pittsburgh Steelers/NE Patriots UNDER 9* play

The set-up: No need to overthink this one. Indianapolis has a lot of talent, but the Colts will clearly be looking for an identity moving forward after QB Andrew Luck shockingly announced his retirement from football just a couple of weeks ago. Jacoby Brissett is a capable QB, but the mental blow that Luck’s departure will have on this organization will clearly take some time to get over. 

The pick: Yes the Chargers are without RB Melvin Gordon, but I’ve always been of the thought that RB’s are replaceable in the NFL. The experience that Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers brings to the table is the difference maker here. Brissett only threw 15 passes in the preseason and he sat out the third and fourth games. Rest leads to rust for Brissett and the rudder-less Colts. Lay the money-line on the home side here.

LA Chargers Moneyline 10* play

The set-up: The Rams finally get a chance to take out their frustrations on someone after losing to the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Last year LA was 13-3. Carolina was 6-2 after the first eight weeks of action last season, but it then finished with a 7-9 overall record. A big difference for LA though to open the season is the health of RB Todd Gurley, who had to play through injury over the final month and a half. Receiver Cooper Kupp is back and healthy as well for LA after his season was cut short with an ACL tear. 

The pick: Panthers’ QB Cam Newton suffered a shoulder injury with two games left last year and he underwent surgery for the second time in three years this offseason. Newton was used sparingly in the preseason and sprained his ankle in Week 3 vs. the Patriots. Newton’s health is a concern for me and it makes the hungry and healthy the Rams the correct call in this one. Lay the short points.

LA Rams 10* play

The set-up: While the outright win is clearly not out of the question in my opinion, I’m going to ultimately recommend that you grab as many points as you can in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these two talented teams has its hands on the ball last. This is the league’s 100th anniversary season and this is in fact the oldest rivalry in the league. Chicago comes in off an impressive 12-4 campaign in 2018, but with the starters having seen extreme limited time in the pre-season, I believe the home side does indeed come out flat on Opening night. 

The pick: A 1-5 stretch during Nov-Dec. would de-rail the Packers last year and they’d go on to finish 6-9-1. Green Bay though is looking to jump-start its offense with Aaron Rodgers under center once again and it welcomes in new head coach Matt LaFleur, who was the offensive coordinator for the Rams and Titans the last two years. Last year these teams split out and everything once again points to a competitive battle this season. The Packers went out and completely re-vamped their defense as well this year and I believe the moves they made in the off-season pay early dividends. Grab the points.

Green Bay Packers 10* play

The set-up: The story lines are well known. The Rams are the up and coming West Coast team that’s backed by a high-powered offense, while the Patriots are one of the most storied franchises in history. I’ve just never been fully convinced by this year’s version of the Patriots. Tom Brady and company beat the Chiefs at home earlier in the year, so the fact that they won last week doesn’t come as a huge surprise despite being the underdog. LA got blasted for 45 points in a loss to New Orleans earlier in the year, but the Rams’ defense came up huge in the 26-23 OT NFC Conference Championship victory. I simply feel that the Rams’ suddenly improving defense, combined with the “one, two” punch of Goff and Gurley will prove to be too much for Bill Belichick.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New England 2-3 ATS this year already after two or more straight victories ATS, while LA is 3-1 ATS this year after two or more straight wins vs. the spread. Grab the points, expect a nail-biter.

10* play

The set-up: If you’re betting this game, then you probably don’t need the “overview” of this game. These teams and their strengths/weaknesses are well known by even the most casual NFL fan. The Patriots of course are the most storied team in the league and QB Tom Brady is a lock for the hall of fame. The Patriots rolled to a 41-28 win over the Chargers at home last weekend, but I think they’ll have their hands full in this difficult road venue. The Chiefs smashed the Colts 31-13 at home and after falling 43-40 in New England back on October 18th, I believe they’ll get their revenge here. I’ve never been fully convinced of the Patriots this year and overall from a “situational” stand point, I absolutely feel that this one sets up great for Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes (50 passing TD’s in the regular season!) and the hungry home side.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New England is just 3-5 ATS on the road this year, while KC is 12-8 ATS in its last 20 as a home favorite of seven points or less. Lay the points, expect a blowout.

10* Chiefs. 

The set-up: I got down early and have a favorable line, but regardless, I love the surging Eagles to catch the Saints a little “flat footed” after their week off. Philadelphia once again defied the odds last weekend with a win in Chicago, as the Bears banged a FG off the cross bar as time expired for the victory. New Orleans went 13-3 in the regular season, but I think that “rest” will lead to “rust” here. The Eagles have been in must win mode for weeks now and that mentality, along with the experience from actually winning the Super Bowl last season, will once again keep this game extremely competitive in my opinion. While the Eagles’ offense dealt with plenty of issues this year, the defense was once again a strength and I think the unit is an overlooked factor here. Note as well that this is an in-season “revenge” game, as Philly was destroyed 48-7 in New Orleans back in Week 11. 

The pick: Nick Foles is under center this time for the Eagles though and I think the experience and momentum that he brings to the table is big as well. Take it for what you will as well, but Philly is interestingly 5-1 ATS in its last six after four or more SU victories, while New Orleans is just 3-4 ATS as a home favorite this season and and just 1-4 ATS following a divisional contest. I won’t call for the outright, but look for this one to come down to the wire. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Andrew Luck and the Colts have sure looked impressive over the last month, but I believe their story comes to and tonight. The Chiefs can’t play a lick of defense, but they haven’t had to with their dynamic offense, led by Patrick Mahomes, who set offensive records this year. With a week off to focus and game-plan though, I absolutely expect the Chiefs’ to also “step up” their game defensively as well. Indianapolis averaged 27.1 PPG, while allowing 21.5. The Chiefs averaged 35.3 PPG though and allowed 26.3. 

The pick: Mahomes though is the difference maker in my opinion. He finished with 5,097 passing yards with a sharp 50/12 TD/INT. Take it for what you will as well, but despite the Colts recent “up-tick” in play, they’re still only 14-17 ATS in their last 31 as an underdog, while Kansas City is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 after scoring 30 points or more in its last game. In my estimation, everything points to the Colts running out gas this weekend. I’m laying they points.

10* play

The set-up: While Seattle won a lower-scoring 24-13 contest at home over the Cowboys back on September 23rd, I believe this time around we’ll see a much more wide open “shootout.” Both teams have made leaps and strides since the early weeks, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Ezekiel Elliot rushed for nearly 1,500 yards, which allowed Dak Prescott to find his game again. The late season acquisition of Amari Cooper was also a huge boost for the Dallas offense late in the year. Seattle veteran QB Russell Wilson put together arguably his best ever campaign and he also benefited greatly from a strong run game, which finished No. 1 in the league. From a situational stand point in my opinion, this one definitely sets up as a higher-scoring affair. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Seattle has seen the total go “over” the number in five of eight this year as an underdog, while Dallas as seen the total go “over” in five of eight at home and in four of its last five home games when the total in the contest is set between 42.5 and 45 points. This number is a low, play the “over.” 

10* play

The set-up: With a playoff spot up for grabs, I’m expecting this total to sneak over the number sooner, rather than later. The Colts come in off a thrilling 28-27 come from behind home win over the Giants last Sunday and I don’t think there’s any reason not to think that they can’t carry that momentum over here as well. The Titans posted a 25-16 home win over the Giants last weekend. Overall the Colts average 26.8 PPG and they allow 21.2. The Titans average 19.5 PPG and they allow 18. In the first meeting this year though, Colts’ QB Andrew Luck had 297 passing yards and three TD’s in a 28 point win.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Indianapolis has seen the total go “over” the number in 12 of its last 20 after playing at home, while Tennessee has seen the total go “over” in five of its last six in trying to revenge a loss where an opponent scored 28 points or more. This number is low, play the “over.” 

10* play

The set-up: Win or lose, the Bears are in the playoffs. Chicago does have a lot to play for here, as a victory today and a San Francisco win will earn it a bye into the divisional round of the playoffs. The Vikes though need a victory here, or there done. If they win though, then they’re in. The entire season of turmoil can be put behind them with one big winning effort and that’s exactly what I’m expecting to see happen. If the Bears go down early, one has to wonder how long they’ll try to keep up the fight? Already assured a spot, clearly this one “means more” to Minnesota. “It is going to be a heightened sense of urgency. For us, playoffs have already started,” Minnesota coach Mike Zimmer assessed at his Wednesday press conference. “We know that we have to win this game in order to get into them. There has to be heightened sense of energy and focus and study time,” he added. “You have to make sure that your bodies are rested and understand it is going to be a physical football game on Sunday.”

The pick: Note as well that Chicago is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 as a road underdog, while Minnesota is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 as a home favorite of 7 points or less. Lay the points.

8* play

The set-up: The Eagles need to win this game, and have the Vikings lose to sneak into a wild card spot. Clearly the only thing that Philadelphia can control is its performance on the field of play today, so with that in mind, I expect the defending champs to continue their late season surge and to leave the Nation’s capital with a convincing victory. The Eagles have been “re-born” with Nick Foles under center, who had four TD passing in last week’s come from behind win over the Texans. Washington would love to play spoiler, but it’s hard to imagine it mustering up much energy this weekend, after last week’s 25-16 listless setback to the Titans, their fifth loss in their last six games, officially eliminated it from contention. Can anyone say letdown spot?!

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Redskins are a poor 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games vs. teams with winning road records. Whether they make it into the playoffs or not is yet to be seen, but in my opinion everything definitely points towards a lop-sided destruction for the visitors. Lay the points.

8* play

The set-up: The Browns are looking to play spoiler and they come in with plenty of momentum. Outright victory?! It’s not out of the question! In fact, Cleveland already upset the Ravens at home 12-9 in OT earlier in the year. Browns’ rookie QB Baker Mayfield had 284 passing yards and three TD’s vs. the Bengals last week. Cleveland’s defense dominated as well, giving up just 209 total yards. Note that Cleveland has in fact won five of six overall. The Ravens are the better team on paper, but I think they get pushed to the brink here after upset win over the Chargers in LA last weekend. 

The pick: The Ravens have struggled against the division as well, going just 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. the AFC North. Note that Baltimore is just 1-4 ATS in its last five at home as well. The Browns on the other hand are 5-1 ATS in the last six after an ATS win. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: This is the finale for the New York Giants. The Cowboys posted a 27-20 home win per the Bucs in their latest action, while New York fell 28-27 to the Colts last week. The Cowboys have already clinched a wild card, but I think the value still lies with the visitors. Dallas posted a 20-13 home win over New York back in Week 2. The Dallas defense is a difference maker here as it ranks fourth in the NFL, allowing only 19.3 PPG. Giants’ QB Eli Manning won’t be throwing to Odell Beckham Jr, who is done for the season. Last week the Giants allowed 357 passing yards. Overall New York allows 25.1 PPG and it averages just 22.3. 

The pick: Despite both Cowboys’ offensive stars’ Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot likely to see limited time in this one, the visitors are still the deeper team. The Cowboys’ defense (as stated above), is also a difference maker for me here. Grab the points.

8* play

The set-up: Two teams playing out their respective seasons collide on Monday night. If these clubs could have a “do over,” they’d clearly both jump on it. Regardless, I think the Broncos will do just enough to gut out the win and cover. The Raiders have nothing to play for here and another loss will only help them in the draft next year. Raiders’ hired Jon Gruden on the off-season last year and his first season has been a disaster. Broncos’ head coach Vance Joseph is expected to be fired after his Week 17 matchup with the Chargers, but he’s not going down without a fight: “Absolutely. We want to win,” Joseph said on Monday. “These next two games are important for us to finish the right way. That part is very important to me. It’s about winning. That’s what it’s about. It’s not about losing, it’s about winning. That’s very important to our football team and our coaches.”

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Denver is already 2-0 ATS this year after a loss by 3 points or less, while Oakland is a terrible 4-8 ATS as an underdog. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Broncos.

10* play

The set-up: From a situational stand point, there’s no doubt that this one sets up as a high-scoring shootout. The Chiefs come in off a tough 29-28 home loss to the Chargers on Thursday. The Chiefs remain the highest scoring team in the league, but they’re in the bottom third defensively. KC needs to win this game to keep pace for the top spot in the AFC. The Hawks also come in off a tough 26-23 OT loss in San Francisco last weekend. Both teams feature a couple of the best QB’s in the league in Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson. Each will be given the green light here today obviously. As stated off the top, this one definitely sets up as a higher-scoring shootout in my opinion.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but KC has seen the total go “over” the number in six of seven on the road already this year, while Seattle has seen the total go “over” in ten of its last 15 as an underdog. This number is low, play the “over.”

10* play

The set-up: The Rams look ripe for the picking here in my opinion. LA comes in off a 30-23 home loss to Philadelphia. Arizona was crushed 40-14 by Atlanta last weekend, but it plays with revenge here after falling 34-0 in LA in Week 2. 

The pick: LA has in fact lost back-to-back games, falling 15-6 in Chicago in Week 14, followed by last week’s upset as well. Arizona would love nothing more than to continue to play spoiler. The home side won’t be rolling over. Take it for what you will as well, but the Cards are still 3-1 ATS vs. the division this year. I’m grabbing the points.

8* play

The set-up: Carolina still has a shot at one of the wild card spots in the NFC, but the team just shut down starting QB Cam Newton after six straight losses and I think the Falcons, who broke a three-game slide with a win over the Cardinals last weekend, will like nothing more than to play the role of spoiler here. Atlanta is eliminated from playoff contention, but the core group will be looking to end the season on a positive note and taking out their hated rival will go a long way in soothing the disgruntled fan base back in ATL. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but ATL is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 off a home victory, while Carolina is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after playing on MNF. Lay the points and look for Matt Ryan and the Falcons to deliver the knock out blow.

10* play

The set-up: The defending champs continue to defy the odds and keep their playoff hopes alive. The Texans posted a 29-22 road win over New York and it still has a two game lead over Indy for the division title. Philadelphia rallied for a 30-23 upset win over the Rams last weekend and it’ll need to win today as well to keep pace in the Wild card race. 

The pick: The Eagles’ defense remains a difference maker and I think the unit will be once again this week as well. Additionally note that Houston is just 8-11 ATS in its last 19 as a road underdog, while Philadelphia is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 as a home favorite. Look for Nick Foles and company to defend home turf.

8* play

The set-up: Washington is still in the playoff hunt after holding on for a win against the Jaguars in Week 15, but the Redskins’ chances are still slim, especially considering the significant injuries. The Titans have won three straight over the Jets, Jags and Giants and I think it’ll keep the foot on the gas from start to finish here as well. Not only are the Skins down to their third string QB, but CB Joshua Holsey was lost for the season in last week’s narrow victory. Tennessee on the other hand is getting steady play from QB Marcus Mariota, while getting superb play from RB Derrick Henry. The Titans though are now No. 2 in the NFL in scoring defense after allowing just one TD over their past 12 quarters of play.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after allowing 14 points or less in its last game, while Tennessee is 4-2 ATS at home this year and 8-5 ATS in its last 13 as a home favorite. Lay the points, expect a rout.

10*

The set-up: This total has dropped since opening and I think the value has definitely now swung to the over. Two teams which hate each other collide on Monday night and I’m expecting more of a wide open offensive affair than a lower-scoring battle. The Saints are 11-2 and are now in top spot in the NFC after LA lost to the Bears last week. New Orleans owns the tie-breaker against the Rams and with a chance to further cement, I expect veteran Drew Brees to be “on point” tonight. And as one of 6-7 teams, Carolina is only one-half game back of the Vikings for the second wild-card berth, so the home side still has everything to play for here as well. From a “situational” stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up a shootout.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New Orleans has seen the total go “over” the number in ten of its last 13 when the total in the contest is set between 42.5 and 50 points, while Carolina has seen the total go “over” in seven of its last ten as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. This number is a low, play the “over.” 

10*

The set-up: Nick Foles is back under center for the Eagles and with nothing to lose except another game, I like the defending champs to give the Rams everything they can handle this weekend. Philly lost 29-23 in OT to Dallas last weekend, while the Rams look very susceptible after their poor 15-6 road loss in Chicago. The Eagles only average 21.6 PPG, but they make up for it on the other end by allowing 22.7. The Rams average 32.7 PPG, but they allow 24.1. 

The pick: After their red hot start, the Rams appear to be running out of gas. Especially RB Todd Gurley. With the offense becoming more one-dimensional than ever, LA could struggle to post the same offensive efficiency down the stretch. Take it for what you will as well, but the Eagles are still 4-2 ATS in their last six on the road. I’m grabbing all those points!

10* play

The set-up: This one is simple for me, it comes down to motivation. The Hawks missed the playoffs last year, but with a win today they’ll punch their ticket back to the promised land. Seattle comes in on top form with four straight wins. Seattle’s defense is back in top form as evidenced by last Monday’s 21-7 home win over the Vikes, holding Minnesota to just 276 total yards. The 49ers look poised for a letdown here after their upset 20-14 win over the Broncos last weekend. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Fran is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Seattle is a solid 3-1-1 ATS in its last five as a road favorite. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points.

8* play

The set-up: If these two teams could be given a “do over” for the 2018/19 season, clearly each of them would take it. These clubs have struggled at times to put points on the board, but I think the overall conditions point to more of a “shootout” in this one finally. Washington comes in off a humbling 40-16 loss to the Giants and it’ll be eager to reverse its fortunes here. Josh Johnson is the QB in Washington now as he took over for Mark Sanchez last weekend and threw for 200 yards and a TD. The Jags are just 4-9 and while they were blown out by Tennessee last weekend, QB Cody Kessler was a bright spot with 250 yards and a TD.

The pick: Both teams will be opening up the playbook, so from a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a high-scoring game in my opinion. Take it for what you will as well, but the Skins have seen the total go “over” the number in eight of their last 12 as a road underdog, while the Jags have seen the total go “over” in seven of its last 11 non-conference games. This number is low, play the “over.” 

8* play

The set-up: I like the Bears to take care of business at home today. The Packers kept their slim playoff hopes alive with a 34-20 win over hapless Atlanta last weekend, while Chicago enters off a hard-fought and impressive 15-6 home win over the high-flying Rams. If LA couldn’t move the ball last week, I have a hard time seeing Aaron Rodgers and his patchwork unit posting much production either. Overall the Packers average 24.2 PPG and they allow 23.6. The Bears are averaging 27.6 PPG and they’re allowing just 19. That ranks third in the league. The Packers are simply too one-dimensional to fool this talented Bears defense. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Green Bay is already only 1-3 ATS this year as a road underdog, while Chicago is a perfect 5-0 ATS at home as a favorite. With a chance to end the Packers’ season, look for the home side to lay the hammer down. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: Granted Cleveland’s looked a lot better this year, but it has nothing to play for whatsoever and with an extremely satisfying 26-20 home win over Carolina last weekend, I do indeed believe this sets up as a classic letdown spot for Cleveland. The Browns average only 22.5 PPG, while allowing 25.5. Denver had won three in a row before a lacklustre 20-14 loss at San Francisco last weekend. But overall the Broncos average 22.3 PPG, while allowing just 21.7.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Cleveland is still only 2-5 ATS in its last seven as a road underdog of seven points or less, while never is 3-1 ATS in its last four after a loss by six points or less. “Home cooking” is the difference here. Lay the points.

10*

The set-up: Clearly this is a big game for both NFC playoff hopefuls. The Vikes are in rebound mode after falling 24-10 in New England last weekend, while the Hawks are rolling now, most recently destroying the 49ers 43-16. The Vikes average 22.9 PPG and they allow 22.5. Note though that Kirk Cousins has the Vikes’ offense ranked sixth in the league with 276.3 YPG. The Seahawks are averaging 26.6 PPG behind the league’s No. 1 rushing offense. The defense is allowing 21.6 PPG. From a situational stand point, I definitely feel this one sets up as a higher-scoring affair. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Minnesota has seen the total go “over” the number in four of six on the road this year, while Seattle has seen the total go “over” in 11 of its last 16 as a home favorite. This number is low, play the “over.” 

The set-up: The Rams posted a tough 30-16 road win in Detroit last weekend they’ll have their hands full again this week on Sunday night at Soldier Field. Chicago is out to atone for a 30-27 OT loss to New York last weekend, so from a situational stand point, I definitely feel this one sets up as more of a lower-scoring defensive battle, where field position and time of possession are key to victory.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA has seen the total go “under” the number in four of six on the road already this year, while Chicago has seen the total go “under” in seven of its last ten as a home dog. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

10*

The set-up: The Cards come in off a 20-17 road upset at Green Bay. Both Arizona and Detroit have nothing to play for in this game except for pride, but after their 30-16 home loss to the Rams, I simply feel this one “means more” to the Lions. Overall Detroit is averaging 21.2 PPG and allowing 26.3. The Cardinals are averaging only 14.6 PPG and allowing 25.8.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arizona is 4-12-2 ATS in in its last 18 following a SU win and 0-4-1 ATS i its last five after posting more than 150 yards in its previous game, while Detroit is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine vs. teams with losing records and 9-3 ATS in its last 12 following a double-digit loss at home. Lay the points.

8*

The set-up: Both teams have been hot. Baltimore features the league’s No. 1 defense and the Chiefs have the league’s No. 1 offense. Something has to give on Sunday. While KC didn’t look very good on the defensive side of the ball in last week’s 40-33 win at Oakland, the Chiefs have been a “different” team in front of the home town crowd. The Ravens’ achilles heel has been their offensive play, especially on the road. It’s difficult to win on the road at any time, but after last week’s 26-16 win at Atlanta, a predictable letdown is imminent for the visitors in my opinion.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Baltimore is just 2-4 ATS in its last six as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while KC is 11-6 ATS in its last 17 as a home favorite of seven points or less. Lay the points.

8*

The set-up: The Colts play with revenge here after falling 37-34 in OT at home to the Texans in Week 4. Houston’s been almost unbeatable since that game, but Andrew Luck and Indianapolis has made great strides this year on both sides of the ball. The Colts were stymied 6-0 last week vs. Jacksonville, but there’s no reason not to think that Luck and company can’t bounce back and return to their normal form. The Texans continue to find ways to win, but I think they’ll have their hands full today vs. a Colts team that will be desperate for an upset and to avenge the earlier setback. These teams are very evenly matched.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its last five in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent, while Houston is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after two straight SU home victories. Grab the points.

10*

The set-up: Jacksonville plays with revenge. It’s also looking to put a nail in the coffin to the Titans season with a victory here. The Jags slowed won the Colts in last week’s 6-0 win. They came up short at home in September vs. the Titans, falling 9-6, but with nothing to lose, I think the visitors will once again keep it competitive this week. The Titans could barely get past the Jets last week at home (26-22) and I think they’ll have their hands full today against this revenge minded and much improved Jags’ defensive unit. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Jacksonville is interestingly 5-1 ATS in its last six in revenging an extremely close loss of three points or less, while Tennessee is just 9-11 ATS in its last 20 as a favorite (including 0-2 ATS this season.) Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: This is a big game for both teams. The winner of this divisional contest will remain on the fringes of the wild card spot, while the other will officially be eliminated from contention. With so much on the line, I’m expecting each side to open up the playbook The Redskins lost starting QB Alex Smith to injury and Colt McCoy was unable to to lead Washington to a win on Thanksgiving Day, eventually falling 31-23 to the Cowboys. Philadelphia’s stagnant offense will have its opportunities today against a Redskins unit which allowed Dallas to score three of its four TD’s by covering at least 16 yards. The Eagles kept their slim hopes alive in last week’s come from behind 25-22 win over the Giants and I think they carry that confidence and momentum over here.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington has seen the total go “over” the numb run eight of its last 11 as a road underdog, while Philadelphia has seen the total go “over” in ten of its last 15 vs. the division. This number is low, play the “over.”

 10* play

The set-up: These teams are very evenly matched. The Steelers missed RB LeVeon Bell last week and they’re going to again today as well. After winning three straight, the Steelers came up short in Denver last weekend. LA though enters off a blowout win over the Cardinals and I don’t think there’s any reason not to think that veteran pivot Phillip Rivers can’t carry that momentum over here facing this Steelers unit which struggled last weekend. 

The pick: Note as well that LA is 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road and 3-1 ATS in its last four following a two game home stand, while Pittsburgh is just 3-4 ATS as a favorite this season. Grab the points and expect a “nail biter.” 

The set-up: The Vikes remain in the NFC playoff picture after last weeks win over the Packers. Kirk Cousins had a big game with 342 passing yards, three TD’s and no INT’s. I think the veteran carries that momentum over here. Overall the Vikes are averaging 24.1 points and allowing 22.1. New England is averaging 27.9 PPG and it’s allowing 22.6. The Pats are getting healthier and I think they’ll put the foot on the gas from start to finish.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Minnesota has seen the total go “over” the total in four of five on the road already this year, while the Patriots have seen the total go “over” in 13 of its last 17 vs. teams with winning records. This number is low, play the “over.” 

The set-up: This game means more to Atlanta. The Falcons are 4-7 and they’ll need to run the table for a chance at a Wild card spot. The Ravens need wins as well, but at 6-5 it’s a little less urgent. Baltimore comes in off a 34-17 home win over Oakland on Sunday, but QB Lamar Jackson looked pretty pedestrian by going 14 of 25 for 178 yards and two first half INT’s. The Ravens have the best defense in the league as far as yards conceded, but Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan won’t be going down without a fight today. He has 3,683 passing yards with 24 TD’s and only five INT’s. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Baltimore is just 2-3 ATS in its last five on the road, while ATL is 5-1 ATS in its last six off a road loss. Home cooking is the difference here, play on the Falcons.

The set-up: The Broncos can smell the blood in the water, as the Bengals move forward without starting QB Andy Dalton. These two teams are moving in opposite directions anyways, with Denver having won two straight and Cincinnati having dropped three straight. From a situational stand point, there’s no doubt this one sets up fantastic for the visitors.

The pick: But take it for what you will as well that the Bengals are 1-5 ATS in their last six following a SU loss of more than 14 points, while the road team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight in this series. Look for the visitors to take full advantage of the “rudder-less” home side. 

The set-up: After an 0-3 start, Houston comes out of its bye week having won six straight. I think the time off will ultimately throw a “monkey wrench” into the chemistry and I look for the hungry Titans to keep this one competitive until the final moments. Houston holds a two game lead over both Tennessee and Indianapolis, so this is a crucial game for the visitors. Tennessee destroyed the Patriots, but it couldn’t keep that momentum going in a 28-10 loss to the Colts last weekend. But with their season essentially on the line, I think the Titans bounce back this week.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Tennessee is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 vs. teams with winning records, while Houston is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine after two or more consecutive victories. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: For all intents and purposes, this is a “must win” game for both teams. The Packers are just 4-5 and they’ve lost three of their last four after a terrible loss to Seattle last weekend. The only hope Green Bay has is with QB Aaron Rodgers, so expect the visitors air it out early and often. The Vikes come in off a brutal loss to the Bears last weekend and they’ll also be hungry to reverse their recent offensive struggles with a break out performance. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a “shootout” in my opinion. 

The pick: Note as well that Green Bay has seen the total go “over” the number in six of its last eight “dome” games, while Minnesota has seen the total go “over” in four of its last five as a home fav of three points or less. This number is low, play the “over.” 

The set-up: It’s a really big game for each side and because of that, I’m expecting more of a “defensive battle,” where field position is paramount in the end. Seattle is in a tough division with the Rams, but it’s keeping pace after last week’s win over the Packers. The Panthers though have lost two in a row and they’ll be risking life and limb to come up with a win today. The overall situation definitely points to a “chess match.” 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Hawks have seen the total go “under” the number in four of their last five road games when the total in the contest is set between 45.5 and 49 points, while Carolina has seen the total go “under” in three of its last four after two or more SU losses. This number is high, play the “under.” 

The set-up: Simply feel that the Bengals are the “hungrier” team here after back-to-back losses. The Browns however enter off a highly satisfying 28-16 home win over the Eagles. A predictable letdown is imminent for the visitors in my opinion. The Browns’ bye week won’t help them here, in fact I believe it’ll be a negative. Overall the Browns are averaging 21.8 PPG and allowing 26.3. The Bengals are averaging 25.6 points and allowing 31.2. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Cleveland is still a brutal 4-10 ATS against the division and a terrible 6-13 ATS in its last 19 on the road, while Cincinnati is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 vs. teams with losing records. Lay the points, expect a rout.

Analysis posted shortly!

The set-up: This is a great “situational” play. Atlanta can’t sit back and hope for the Saints to make the first mistake today. The Falcons’ season has been de-railed by injury, but veteran QB Matt Ryan will be given the green light to air the ball out early and often. The Saints only need two more victories to earn a first round bye. Clearly Drew Brees is going to have the foot on the gas here from start to finish this weekend.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Atlanta has seen the total go “over” the number in four of its last five after two or more SU losses, while New Orleans has seen the total go “over” in 14 of its last 22 at home. This number is low, play the “over.” 

The set-up: The Bears have won four in a row and they enter off an epic 25-20 win at home over the Vikes last Sunday night. Can anyone say natural letdown spot? The Lions are out of the playoff picture yet, but with another loss they would be. Last week Detroit rallied for a quality 20-19 home win over the Panthers and I think the home side carries that momentum over here on the “short week.” 

The pick: Note as well that the Detroit plays with revenge after falling 34-22 in Chicago in early November. And take it for what you will, but Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last five as an underdog. Grab the points.

The set-up: Outright upset? Clearly not out of the question. Minnesota most recently won 24-9 at home over Detroit two weeks ago and I think it has a legitimate shot at taking this one outright. Chicago looks primed for a letdown here as well after its 34-22 win over Detroit last weekend. Overall the Vikes are averaging 24.6 PPG and they’re allowing 22.7. The Bears are averaging 29.9 PPG and they’re allowing 19.4. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Chicago is just 8-18-1 ATS in its last 27 after allowing less than 90 rushing yards, while Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last six coming off a win in which it held its opponent under ten points and following its bye. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: The Broncos come in out of their bye hungry as they’ve lost two straight. The Chargers though could be a bit complacent here after their big win over the Raiders last week. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Denver is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more SU/ATS losses, while LA is just 8-11 ATS in its last 19 at home and only 9-10 ATS in its last 19 as a favorite. I think LA has a letdown here after last weeks win, while Denver comes in focused after its bye. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Both teams come in on win streaks, but in this important divisional battle, I’m expecting more of a defensive affair. The Titans enter off a confidence building 34-10 rout of the Patriots, looking very impressive defensively. The Colts have won three straight, but I think Luck and company will have their hands full with this under-the-radar Titans’ defense.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Tennessee has seen the total go “under” the number in its last four “dome” games, while Indianapolis has seen the total go “under” in four of its last five home games when the total in the contest is greater than or equal to 49.5. This number is high, play the “under.” 

8* play

The set-up: Carolina was clobbered 52-21 in Pittsburgh last weekend and I think it’ll have its hands full with a hungry Lions team that enters off a 34-22 road loss in Chicago. Note that this is a “revenge” game as well for the Lions after Carolina posted the 27-24 road win last year. Overall the Panthers are averaging 26.8 points and allowing 25.8. Detroit is averaging 22.4 points and allowing 27.1. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Carolina is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and just 4-6 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with losing records, while the Lions are still 10-6 ATS in their last 16 at home. Grab the points.

8* play

The play: For all intents and purposes, this is a “do or die” game for both teams. Green Bay kept its hopes alive with a 31-12 home win last weekend, while Seattle came up just short in a 36-31 setback to the Rams on Sunday. The Packers won’t be just sitting back on their heels and looking for the Hawks to make the first mistake. Green Bay is just 2-2 on the road this year and it’ll have to do what it does best and that’s give the ball to QB Aaron Rodgers and let him go to work. The Hawks looked terrible defensive last week against the “gun-slinging” Rams’ QB and I think the defense is going to have its hands full here as well. 

The pick: Note that Green Bay has seen the total go “over” in five of six against conference opponents this year and in its last six as a road dog of three points or less, while Seattle has seen the total go “over” in seven of its last ten following a divisional contest. This number is low, play the “over.” 

10* play

The set-up: Clearly these are two teams that would take a “mulligan” on the season if given the chance. The Giants come out of their bye week looking to avoid a 1-8 start, while the 49ers enter at 2-7. San Francisco won’t be going down quietly either, it enter off a confidence building 34-3 win over Oakland. Each team has plenty of issues on both sides of the ball and up and down the line, but from a “situational” stand point, I absolutely feel that this one sets up as a “shoot-out.” 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York has seen the total go “over” the number in its last two following its bye week, while San Fran has seen the total go over in five of its last eight as a favorite. This number is low, play the “over.” 

10* play

The set-up: Eagles are winning and the Cowboys are losing. Dak Prescott and Dallas won’t go down without a fight here though. The Eagles have won three straight, while the Cowboys have dropped tow in a row. In last week’s 28-14 loss to Tennessee, newly acquired WR Amari Cooper had 58 yards and a TD. He’ll bring some depth to the passing game, which will in turn help out Ezekiel Elliot and the ground game. QB Dak Prescott had 248 yards and two TD passes in last week’s loss. The Eagles come in “rusty” here out of their bye in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philly is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and only 6-7 ATS in its last 13 vs. division opponents, while Dallas is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU losses. Grab the points and expect a “nail biter.” 

The set-up: Divisional battles are always the most important. The Hawks enter desperate as they fell 25-17 at home to the Chargers last week, likely getting caught “looking ahead” to this one. The Rams though look ripe for the picking in my estimation after they suffered their first loss of the season in a 45-35 setback to the Saints last Sunday. LA’s defense has been exposed and I think the veteran Russell Wilson will be able to take advantage.

The pick: This is an in-season revenge game for Seattle as well after LA edged it at home earlier in the year. Take it for what you will as well, but Seattle is 6-2 ATS in its last eight as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. Grab the points.

The set-up: The Redskins are still in the drivers seat for the NFC East division lead, but the Eagles are hot on their heels and they’ll be looking to bounce back here after a poor 38-14 home loss to Atlanta most recently. Tampa offers the perfect opponent to get untracked against, as they enter off a listless 42-28 road loss to Carolina. Tampa has been productive offensively so far this tar, but the Redskins are allowing just 21.5 PPG this season. Additionally note that the Bucs have the worst defense in the league, allowing 34.4 PPG.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is already 4-1 ATS this year as an underdog, while Tampa is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 as a favorite. Grab the points.

The set-up: The Falcons opened 1-4, but they’ve since clawed their way back to a 4-4 record with four straight wins. Last week ATL won 36-14 in Washington. Matt Ryan and company have been playing at an extremely high level for weeks now and winning on the road is never easy. This does indeed set up as a letdown spot for the Falcons finally. Thankfully the ATL defense faces a Browns offense averaging only 20.7 PPG. Cleveland’s been decent defensively this season and that the last thing the home side can do is to turn this into a “track meet” and expect to hand with the high-flying Falcons.

The pick: Note as well that Cleveland has seen the total go “under” the number in nine of its last ten home games as an underdog in the 3.5 to seven points range. This number is a little high, play the “under.” 

The set-up: It’s essentially do or die for the Lions today. Detroit comes in off back to back losses and despite sending receiver Golden Tate to Philly, I think Matt Stafford and company will give the home side everything it can handle. The Bears have two in a row, but I’ll caution in reading too much into those victories, as it came against the lowly Jets and Bills. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Detroit is already 3-1 ATS this season as an underdog, while Chicago is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following two or more SU victories. Grab the points.

The set-up: Both teams come in rolling. Carolina enters off three straight wins, most recently a 42-28 victory over Tampa Bay, while Pittsburgh has won four straight, most recently a 23-16 win over Baltimore. These teams are very similar, with dynamic and capable QB’s who each have plenty of weapons to utilize. But Newton has struggled against the elite defenses throughout his career and I think that trend carries over here at Heinz Field.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well the Panthers are a terrible 3-8 ATS in their last 11 after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Pittsburgh is a perfect 2-0 ATS in its last two Thursday night contests. Lay the points and expect a rout.

The set-up: Both teams come off their bye weeks. Tennessee lost 20-19 in England in its final game before its bye, while Dallas fell 20-17 in Washington in Week 7. Both teams need a win and I think each will be looking to establish the run from the “get go.” As a result, expect this total to sneak under the number at the end of the night. 

The pick: Both teams feature a couple of QB’s who are better at “managing” the game, than “blowing it wide open.” They also feature two very strong RB’s in the Titans’ Derrick Henry and the Cowboys’ Ezekiel Elliot. Take it for what you will as well, but Tennessee has seen the total go “under” the number in four of six already this year as an underdog, while Dallas has seen the total go “under” in six of its last nine non-conference games. This number is a little high, play the “under.” 

The set-up: I think Aaron Rodgers and the stumbling Green Bay Packers can keep this one respectable on Sunday night. Green Bay came up just short in a massive upset in LA last weekend and with their backs against the wall, I think the Packers bring that same intensity here on Sunday night. The Pats have won three straight and are off a short week after hammering the Bills in Buffalo on Monday night. 

The teams: Packers’ QB Aaron Jones had 86 yards and a TD last week. Rodgers was his usual dominant self and the defense was decent considering the opponent, posting five sacks and eight QB hits. 

New England wasn’t challenged last week. It didn’t need starting RB Sony Michale last weekend, but I think his absence this Sunday will be more significant against this desperate visiting side. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Green Bay is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while New England is just already just 2-3 ATS this year as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. Grab the points.

The set-up: Both teams come in playing well, but I think the extra week off to rest and prepare for this one will be the difference for Philip Rives and the visiting Chargers.

The teams: LA comes in on top form having won four straight, most recently a 20-19 win over the Titans in London. Rivers has 2,009 passing yards and an elite 17/3 TD:INT

Seattle has won four of five after an 0-2 start. But after sweeping a two game road trip, including a 28-14 victory in Detroit last Sunday, I think the Hawks suffer a predictable letdown here on the return to friendly soil. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is a perfect 3-0 ATS as a road favorite of three points or less and a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three following its bye, while Seattle is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 after two or more consecutive SU wins. Play on LA.

The set-up: Washington comes in dog tired here after three straight victories, while the Falcons return to action fresh off their bye week and two straight victories. I expect the visitors to sneak away with an outright victory today. 

The teams: The bye week couldn’t have come at a better time for the hurting Falcons. Atlanta still has plenty of injury issues to deal with, but Matt Ryan and his WR core remains in tact and I think the unit will be a difference maker this afternoon. 

The Redskins comes in off a 20-13 win over the lowly Giants, with aging RB Adrian Peterson going for a season-high 149 yards. Suffice it to say, I don’t think AP is going to match that pace again in back-to-back weeks. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but ATL is 3-1 ATS in its last four following its bye week and 8-5 ATS in its last 13 after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Washington is just 2-3 ATS in its last five off a win against a conference rival. I like a rested Ryan to pull off the upset Sunday afternoon.

The set-up: Detroit enters off a 28-14 home loss to Seattle, while Minnesota comes in off a 30-20 home loss to the Saints. 

The teams: The Lions last road game ended in a 32-21 Week 6 victory in Miami. While it struggled against the Seahawks last week, I think Detroit will have its opportunities today against Vikes’ defense which has been exposed. Overall the Lions are averaging 24.4 points and allowing 26.6. 

Minnesota is averaging 24.6 PPG and allowing 24.4. Kirk Cousins remains a bright spot on the team with a 16/4 TD/INT, but the once vaunted league leading defense is now firmly planted in the middle of the pack.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Vikes are just 1-4 ATS the last five in this series, while the Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last five on the road. Detroit has played well on the road this year, averaging 27.7 PPG away from friendly confines. Grab the points.

The set-up: The Browns will be leaving everything on the field today as they look to snap a three-game slide. KC enters off a 30-23 home victory over Denver, while Cleveland fell 33-18 to Pittsburgh last week. 

The teams: After their loss the Pats, the Chiefs come in having won two straight. The Chiefs average 36.2 PPG and they allow 25.6. Patrick Mahomes had four TD passes and an an INT last week. So far the Chiefs have been up to the task each week, but it’s not too hard to imagine the visitors getting caught looking past their lowly opponent today.

The Browns have been trying hard each week, but so far that effort hasn’t translated into many wins or offensive production. Cleveland averages 21.1 PPG and it concedes 26.2. RB Nick Chubb had 65 rushing yards last week.

The pick: Note that KC has seen the total go “under” the number in four of its last five as a favorite and in 13 of its last 18 after two or more consecutive SU wins, while Cleveland has seen the total go “under” in 14 of its last 19 at home and in three of four already as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. This number is high, play the “under.” 

The set-up: Pittsburgh lost 26-14 in this matchup at home earlier in the year and I think it’ll have its hands full in this hostile environment Sunday as well. The Steelers are poised for a letdown here in my opinion after three straight wins. Conversely, it’s all hands on deck this week for Baltimore after losing three of its last four, including a 36-21 setback at Carolina last weekend. 

The teams: The Steelers are averaging 418.1 YPG on offense, while allowing 359.7 YPG. Note there’s a major concern about QB Ben Roethlisberger who fractured his index finger on his left hand. 

Baltimore is only allowing 293.8 YPG. The offense is averaging 379.3 YPG. Last week the defense struggled against Cam Newton, but the unit catches a break this week facing the lumbering (and now injured) Roethlisberger. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Baltimore is 4-2 ATS in its last six after two or more SU losses. I’m banking on the more desperate team getting the job done today. Lay the points.

The set-up: Oakland comes in off its third straight loss, a 42-28 setback at home to the Colts. Derek Carr and company are just playing for pride at this point. So too are the 49ers, who have lost six straight, most recently an 18-15 setback on the road to Arizona. With nothing to play, on the short week and with each side dealing with injuries, points are going to be at a premium in my opinion. 

The teams: The Raiders have already shelved RB Marshawn Lynch after he had surgery last week. Oakland also made some moves in its bye week, trading star receiver Amari Cooper to Dallas for a first round pick. Winning this Thursday night game is not of the greatest importance to this team right now.

The 49ers season went down the toilet when QB Jimmy Garoppolo went down with injury. The 49ers have seen four of their losses come by eight points or less, a testament their defensive and special teams play. 

The pick: The 49ers have been solid against the run and the Raiders have pretty much abandoned their ground game. The visitors offense is extremely one dimensional and I think the home side’s talented defensive unit will easily be able to make the adjustments to make things difficult on Carr from start to finish. This one has defensive battle written all over it. Play the under.

The set-up: Tom Brady is 28-3 all time against Buffalo and while he won’t have offensive star TE Rob Gronkowski in the line-up, I still believe the all star will have more than enough to take care of the lowly (and injured) Bills.

The teams: After a 1-2 start the Pats come in having won four straight. Last week Brady threw for 277 yards and three TD’s in the victory over the Bears. WR Josh Gordon had four catches for 100 yards. Sony Michel is also expected to sit this one out, so expect to see a heavy dose of James White.

The Bills are dealing with several injuries, including at QB. Buffalo is already planning ahead to next year and I believe it’ll simply go through the motions tonight.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but the Pats are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 after two or more consecutive victories, while Buffalo is just 10-13 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog. Lay the points and expect a rout.

The set-up: New Orleans comes in off a 24-23 road win over Baltimore, the league’s No. 1 defense, while Minnesota enters of a 37-17 dismantling of the Jets. These teams battled to a higher-scoring affair in the playoffs last year as well, with Minnesota eventually prevailing 29-24.

The teams: The Saints are averaging the second most points in the league, which is a good thing as the defense has regressed from last season, allowing 27.2 PPG. Drew Brees has an insane 13/0 TD/INT ratio and a QBR of 121.6.

Minnesota is averaging 25.3 PPG and and while it’s fifth in the league against the run defensively, it’s only 16th against the pass. Clearly that doesn’t bode particularly well facing the red hot Brees and company.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Vikes have seen the “over” go 5-2 in their last seven following a SU victory. Both teams are “firing on all cylinders” offensively. Play the “over.”

The set-up: Oakland only has one victory on the season and I think it’ll struggle containing Andrew Luck, who continues to gain confidence each week, despite being undermanned on both sides of the ball.

The teams: Luck had 156 yards and four TD’s in last week’s blowout win at home over the hapless Bills. Marlon Mack ran for 126 yards and a TD. Luck is getting improved play from his offensive line and I think that progression continues this week in what sets up as another favorable matchup.

Oakland coach Jon Gruden was signed to a ten year contract, so he’s gutting the team and rebuilding it the way he sees fit. Gruden’s indecision across the board has hurt the team in the short-term and probably in the long-term as well.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but note that Oakland is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five at home, while Indianapolis is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games on the road against teams with a losing home record. I like Luck to lay the hammer down and further expose Gruden’s complete ineptitude. Lay the points.

The set-up: Denver enters off a 45-10 win over Arizona and I think it’ll have its chances today against the Chiefs vanilla defense. Kansas City enters off a 45-10 win over Cincinnati, one week after coming up short in New England. Note that this is a revenge game for Denver after the Chiefs posted a 27-23 road win in Week 4.

The teams: Denver is averaging 23.6 PPG and it’s allowing 23.4. QB Case Keenum has 1,848 passing yards and an 8/9 TD:INT. The defense dominated last week, limiting the Cards to just 223 total yards.

KC is averaging 37.1 PPG and allowing 26. Patrick Mahomes has been unbelievable with 2,223 passing yards and a 22/5 TD:INT, but I think he’ll have his hands full today with this veteran Broncos defense.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but KC is still just 4-6 ATS in its last ten against teams with losing records. Denver took the Chiefs best shot they had and almost prevailed. I’m expecting a similar “war” here as well. Grab the points.

The set-up: Chicago is 3-3 and in desperate need of a victory this week to keep pace in the competitive NFC North. Thankfully the Jets are coming to town, as New York continues to deal with a number of injuries on both sides of the ball. This one has “blowout” written all over it in my opinion.

The teams: The Bears enter off a 38-31 loss to the Pats, as QB Mitch Trubisky continued his fine season with 333 passing yards and two TD’s. Chicago remains one of the best on the defensive side of the ball and Khalil Mack and company look poised for a big night against the Jets patchwork front.

Jets’ QB Sam Darnold was just 17 of 42 for 206 yards, one TD and three INT’s in last week’s blowout loss to the Vikes. The Jets also lost the services of RB Bilal Powell to injury.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games played on “grass,” while Chicago is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 15 at home and 11-5-1 ATS in its last 17 after allowing more than 350 total yards in its previous game. Lay the points.

The set-up: Pittsburgh has won two straight, but I think it’ll have enough of a “letdown” here to let the hungry Browns sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Cleveland comes in off a tight 26-23 OT loss to Tampa Bay, while Pittsburgh scored the difficult 28-21 road win over the Bengals. Note that these teams played to a 21-21 tie in Week 1.

The teams: Cleveland is averaging 21.6 PPG and it’s allowing 25.3. QB Baker Mayfield has 1,291 passing yards and a 6/5 TD:INT. The Browns looked sharp defensively, posting four sacks and two INT’s against the high-flying Bucs.

Pittsburgh is averaging 28.5 PPG, but it’s allowing 25.7. QB Ben Roethlisberger has 2,033 passing yards and a mediocre 12:6 TD/INT on the season.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine following a SU win, while Cleveland is 3-0-1 ATS the last four in this series. No outright, but expect a battle until the end. Grab the points.

The set-up: Miami has lost three of its last four, most recently a 32-21 setback at home to Detroit, while Houston comes in on the other end of the spectrum, having won four straight, most recently a commanding 20-7 win on the road over Jacksonville. On the short week, I believe points will be at a premium.

The teams: Miami was out gained 457-322 last week against a pretty bad Lions defense. And that doesn’t bode well this week facing a Texans’ defensive unit which is clearly “firing on all cylinders.” It wasn’t a pretty win last week by the Texans by any means, as they’d hold on for a slim 272-259 yardage edge in the victory.

The pick: Miami’s only hope on offense is to run the ball today (18th in the league in rushing, but it’s rushed for at least 100 yards in five of seven games.) Dolphins’ QB Ryan Tannehill is injured and Brock Osweiler is “hit or miss.” The Texans have been getting the job done by letting DeShaun Watson “manage” the offense and I don’t think anything will change this week either. Note that Miami has seen the total go “under” in three of its last four as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Houston has seen the total go “under” in five of its last six after two or more consecutive SU victories. This number is high, play the “under.”

The set-up: The winner of this game will keep its slim playoff hopes alive, while the loser will officially be eliminated from contention. I think home field advantage will prove to be a big difference maker in this one. Atlanta is just 2-3, but it held on for a 34-29 win over Tampa last weekend, while New York comes in with a 1-5 record.

The teams: The Giants most recently fell 34-13 at home to the Eagles. RB Saquon Barkley was a bright spot with 100 yards rushing and 99 yards receiving. But the tension between WR Odell Beckham Jr. and QB Eli Manning is real, as the coaching staff continues to move away from having their all star pivot from throwing down the field.

The Falcons continue to look horrible defensively, but the offense continues to put up decent numbers and I have a hard time seeing the Giants keeping pace down the stretch. Last week Matt Ryan had 354 yards passing with three TD’s. Overall he has 1,432 passing with 12 TD’s and an INT.

The pick: The good news for the Falcons? They’re only 2.5 games behind the Saints in the NFC South and this is the start of four very “winnable” games for them as well, with three contests against the NFC East and also the Cleveland Browns. Take it for what you will as well, but New York is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range, while ATL is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite in the 3.5 to 7 points range. Lay the points.

The set-up: These division rivals are very evenly matched, but I think the Cowboys will stumble in this difficult road venue. Both teams enter with identical 3-3 records.

The teams: Dallas comes in off a 40-7 win over a road-weary Jacksonville team. I’m not going to read too much into the victory though and I do believe regression is imminent here as the team has shown a propensity to struggle away from friendly confines already this season. Overall the Cowboys are averaging 20.5 PPG and allowing 17.2.

Washington is averaging 21.2 PPG and it’s allowing 20.9. Last week Alex Smith had 163 yards with two TD’s and no INT’s. I think the veteran pivot will have some opportunities today in front of the home town crowd as well.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Dallas is just 2-8 ATS in its last ten after scoring 40 points or more in its previous contest. Divisional battles are always the most important and they always mean more to the home side. Lay the points.

The set-up: The Patriots look poised for a letdown here in my opinion after their epic shootout victory at home over the Chiefs last Sunday night. The Bears recent momentum was stopped in a humbling loss to Miami last week and I believe they’ll bounce back and find a way to defend Soldier Field.

The teams: Tom Brady faced the league’s worst pass defense last week and he shredded it. It was a dream match-up and the legend delivered the goods. But we’ve already seen Brady struggle this year in difficult road venues against capable defenses.

And Khalil Mack and the Bears’ defense at home is an entirely different “animal” than KC. Brady may have looked great last weekend, but what looked horrible for New England was its defense. The unit is lucky that Brady played as well as he did, otherwise the Chiefs would still be undefeated. Suffice it to say, I think that Bears’ QB Mitch Trubisky will have his opportunities today.

The pick: The Bears have yet to lose at home this year and I believe that trend continues. And take it for what you will as well, but note that Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home dog of three points or less. Play on the Bears.

The set-up: The Vikes come in off a 27-12 home win over the Cardinals and I look for the team to carry that momentum over here. New York enters off a 42-34 home victory over Indianapolis, but it now faces one of its most challenging defenses of the season. In my opinion, this one has “blowout” written all over it.

The teams: Vikes’ QB Kirk Cousins had 233 passing yards with one TD and one INT last week. So far he has 1,921 passing yards with a sharp 12/3 TD:INT. RB LaTavius Murray had 155 rushing yards in the victory. The defense was tremendous, holding the Cards to just 269 total yards, including only 61 rushing yards.

Jets’ QB Sam Darnold has a 9/7 TD:INT after going for 280 yards and two TD’s last weekend. While the offense looked decent though, note that the defense allowed 428 total yards.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Jets are just 1-5 ATS in their last six after scoring 30 or more points in their previous game, while the Vikes are 7-3 ATS in their last ten on the road. The Vikes come in with momentum, taking out the Eagles on the road and then the Cards at home. Look for New York to take a predicable step back this week and lay the points.

The set-up: Tampa’s fallen on hard times since starting out 2-0, coming into this one having lost three straight. Cleveland is 2-1 in its last three, but it got destroyed at home by the high-flying Chargers last weekend. I believe the conditions are right for a lower-scoring “under” between these two hungry teams.

The teams: The Browns offense looked terrible last week against a pretty mediocre Chargers’ defense. Baker Mayfield was picked off twice and he only connected on 47.8 percent of his passes. So far he has a 4/5 TD:INT ratio. Mayfield doesn’t have many standout receivers, so look for Cleveland to try and establish the run here so as to alleviate some of the pressure of their rookie pivot.

The Bucs fired defensive coordinator Mike Smith following a 34-29 setback to the Falcons last Sunday. With the shift in management, I believe we’ll see a marked improvement on that side of the ball this weekend.

The pick: As mentioned off the top, I believe the “conditions” are right for a lower-scoring “chess match,” rather than a wide open “shoot-out.” Play the “under.”

The set-up: I think a trip across the pond does the Titans good after their worst offensive performance in a decade. Conversely, I believe this trip will be detrimental to the Chargers’ recent chemistry. I’m not calling for an outright victory, but Marcus Mariota and the Titans definitely have something to prove this weekend after last Sunday’s performance.

The teams: Despite last week’s 21-0 loss to Baltimore (the Ravens own the leagues’ No. 1 defense), Tennessee is still tied atop the AFC South.

LA comes in complacent in my opinion after winning three straight, most recently a 38-14 victory at Cleveland. Melvin Gordon was a standout with 132 yards rushing and three TD’s.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Tennessee is 6-3 ATS in its last nine as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and 4-0 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU losses, while LA is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven after two or more consecutive SU victories and only 7-9 ATS in its last 16 as a favorite. Grab the points.

The set-up: Two struggling teams collide on a short week on Thursday night and in my opinion, points are going to be at a premium. Denver comes in having lost four straight, most recently a 23-20 setback to the Rams, while Arizona fell 27-17 in Minnesota to fall to 1-5.

The teams: The Broncos gave up 323 yards on the ground in a 34-16 win in New York two weeks ago, only to then allow 270 yards to the Rams on the ground in last Sunday’s setback. QB Case Keenum is nothing more than a clock manager, as the run game, special teams and defense continue to lead the way.

Arizona’s offense has been terrible this year, averaging only 13.6 PPG at home so far. Last week the Cardinals looked decent for the first half, before then falling apart in the second.

The pick: This one isn’t going to be decided by the QB’s. It’s going to be decided in the trenches, by the defenses and by special teams play. Take it for what you will as well, but Denver has seen the total go “under” the number in ten of its last 13 against clubs with losing records, while Arizona has seen the total go “under” in 14 of its last 19 at home. Play the “under.”