The set-up: The 49ers are 1-4 and last place in the NFC West. This is a “must win” game for San Francisco if it hopes to compete in the playoffs. Starting QB Jimmy Garraopolo was lost to injury for the season three weeks ago, so it’s “do or die” tonight. The 2-2-1 Packers have looked brilliant at times this year and very pedestrian in others. Hall of Fame QB Aaron Rodgers will be eager to bounce back in front of the home town crowd.

The teams: San Fran is now led offensively by RB Matt Breida, who is averaging 7.5 yards on 49 carries so far this year. QB CJ Beathard makes his third start after falling 29-27 to the Chargers most recently.

Rodgers comes in sporting an elite 10:1 TD/INT and I have a hard time seeing San Francisco slowing him down tonight after the critics have been quick to jump on him after last week’s sub-par effort.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Green Bay has seen the total go “over” the number in 15 of its last 25 home games as a favorite of 9 points or more. I’m expecting a wide-open affair, play the “over.”

The set-up: The Falcons have lost three in a row. This has essentially become a “must win” game for the Falcons, as another loss to a divisional foe and a 1-5 record would be too much of a hole for them to climb out of. Tampa started the year on fire, but it went into its “bye week” off two straight losses. And now the Bucs welcome back Jameis Winston under center, a situation which will surely need some time to develop property chemistry. In my opinion, the stage is set for a lop-sided home blowout victory.

The teams: Tampa’s defense though is the main reason why I believe that Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan and company can bounce back today. Last year the Bucs were last in the league in the pass rush, and this season they’re ranked 30th.

Despite the 1-4 record, Ryan continues to put up impressive numbers with 1,601 passing yards so far, ranked 7th overall.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Bucs are a terrible 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against teams with losing home records, while the Falcons are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after two or more SU losses, including a loss to a divisional foe in their most recent. As mentioned off the top, this one has “rout” written all over it. Lay the points.

analysis coming

The set-up: Both teams won last week, but I think the Texans will find a way to defend their home field. Dallas held on for a 26-24 home win over Detroit, while Houston prevailed 37-34 in OT over the Colts.

The teams: Despite last week’s decent effort, the Cowboys are still averaging only 16.8 PPG. The team’s strength is clearly on the defensive side of the ball as it’s allow only 19.2 PPG. Dak Prescott had 255 yards and two TD’s last week, while Ezekiel Elliot had 152 rushing yards.

Houston QB DeShaun Watson had 375 yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. Like their counterparts today though, the Texans’ have struggled at times on both sides of the ball.
However I expect Watson to build off his best outing of the year and take advantage of friendly confines.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after scoring 37 or more points in its previous contest, while Dallas is just 12-26-1 ATS in its last 39 on field turf. Lay the points.

The set-up: Each team comes in off a high-scoring, hard-fought victory last week and I believe they come in “gassed.” The Raiders held on for a 45-42 OT win over the Browns, while the Chargers held on for a 29-27 home victory over a San Francisco team which was using its back-up QB.

The teams: The Raiders got a big game from Derek Carr last week, but overall the Oakland offense has been inconsistent this year. Marshawn Lynch though has been a pleasant surprise, as he’d go for 130 yards last week and he now has 300 yards total along with three major scores. The defense has been hit or miss this season as well, looking horrible last week. However, I think it does indeed catch a break here facing what I believe to be a tired Chargers side.

LA is averaging 27.8 PPG and it’s allowing 30 PPG. Clearly that’s not a recipe for success. The Bolts have never had issues putting points on the board with Philip Rivers under center (he so far has 11 TD’s and two INT’s), but if the team hopes to take “the next step,” clearly its going to have to get things figured out on the defensive side of the ball.

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Oakland has seen the total go “under” the number in five of its last six as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range, while LA has seen the total go “under” seven of its last ten against clubs with losing records. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: Tennessee comes in tired in my opinion after its 26-23 OT win over Philadelphia, while the Bills come in focused and hungry after their humbling 22-0 road loss in Green Bay. Clearly the “outright” isn’t out of the question, but I’m grabbing the points in a game which I envision coming right down to the wire.

The teams: The Titans are averaging only 18.8 PPG, but they’re allowing just 18.2. Last week they had to rally from a 17-3 deficit to knock off the defending champs. QB Marcus Marriota was a stand out with 344 passing yards, two TD’s and an INT. The defense is the strength of the team, but it looked pretty pedestrian last week in allowing 315 passing yards.

The Bills are averaging only 12.5 PPG while allowing 26.5. So far rookie QB Josh Allen has 666 passing yards and a 2/4 TD:INT.

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Tennessee is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and only 6-11 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record, while Buffalo is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games after getting shutout in its previous outing. I think the more “desperate” team takes this one down to the wire. Grab the points.

The set-up: Carolina enters off its bye week and I think it’ll get caught flat-footed here, just enough to allow the desperate Giants to sneak in through the back door.

The teams: New York is averaging 18.2 PPG and it’s struggled on the defensive side of the ball as well. Hence the 1-3 record. RB Saquon Barkley has been a bright spot though, he so far has 453 yards from scrimmage.

Fortunately for the Giants they face a Carolina offense which is averaging just 203.7 yards passing per game. The defense is weak against the run as well, allowing 110 yards per game on 4.93 yards per carry.

The pick: And that doesn’t bode well facing Barkley and this underachieving Giants offense. Take it for what you will as well, but Carolina is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games as a favorite in the 3.5 to seven points range. Expect a battle to the end and grab the points.

The set-up: Jacksonville comes in off a 31-12 home win over the Jets last week, while KC enters off a 27-23 road win over Denver. I think these AFC heavyweights “throw down” on Sunday.

The teams: So far Jacksonville is averaging only 22 points, while allowing just 14. That’s first in the NFL. However, the Jags’ defense is about to face its stiffest test to date. Blake Bortles look great last week and he’s going to benefit in facing this porous Chiefs’ secondary this afternoon.

KC leads the NFL with an average of 36.2 PPG. The Chiefs need to score a lot of points though, as the defense is allowing 28.8 PPG. So far QB Patrick Mahomes has a 14:0 TD/INT.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Jacksonville has seen the total go “over” the number in 11 of its last 16 when the line in the contest is set between +3 and -3, while KC has seen the total go “over” in three of its last four off a win against a division rival. This number is low, play the “over.”

The set-up: The Pats broke a two-game slide with a 38-7 win over Miami last Sunday, while the Colts came up on the short end of the stick in a 37-34 OT setback at Houston last Sunday. These teams haven’t played since 2015.

The teams: Indianapolis had a 478-466 edge in offense last week, but it just wasn’t to be in the end. QB Andrew Luck so far has 1,126 yards, nine TD’s and three INT’s. Adam Vinatieri continues to be a steady source of production as well, hitting all eight extra points and eight nine field goals with a long of 51.

The Pats smashed the Dolphins last week with a 449-172 yardage advantage. So far QB Tom Brady has an unremarkable 918 yards with nine TD’s and four INT’s. RB Sony Michels has 196 yards and a TD.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Indianapolis is 7-5 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range (including 2-0 ATS this season) and 9-7 ATS in its last 16 on the road (including 2-0 ATS this year), while New England is a horrible 0-4 ATS in its last four as a home favorite in the 7.5 to ten points range. I think Luck will match Brady. Grab the points.

The set-up: The Chiefs are 3-0 and feature the most explosive offense in the league. While the defense has been a weak point, KC catches a break this week facing the inconsistent Broncos. I think the Chiefs keep the foot on the gas in Week 4 and pull away down the stretch for a comfortable cover.

The teams: KC is seventh in total offense with 398.3 YPG.Denver is 21st in the league in pass defense, allowing 262.7 YPG through the air. The Chiefs already have 15 pass plays that covered at least 20 yards this season. Broncos’ QB Case Keenum has three TD’s and five INT’s and his passing yards have declined each week (last week he was 22 of 34 for 173 yards and an INT in the loss to the Ravens.)

The pick: The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five MNF contests, while Denver is just 2-7-2 ATS in its last 11 MNF appearances. Lay the points and expect a rout, play on Kansas City.

The set-up: Pittsburgh comes in off a big win over the Bucs last week, but it’ll still be desperate to avoid a 1-3 start. Baltimore though has struggled on the road over the last few years and after beating the Broncos at home last week, I think it’ll predictably stumble here.

The teams: Ravens’ RB Alex Collins has yet to post a 100 yard game and Baltimore ranks among the worst rushing offenses in the league. QB Joe Flacco continues to look decent one game and horrible the next. Pittsburgh has struggled against the run, but Baltimore’s one-dimensional offense isn’t going to fool the home side I don’t think tonight.

Pittsburgh had/has plenty of off-field drama to contend with with player hold-outs, but it took a big step in the right direction in last weeks convincing victory over Tampa Bay. Big Ben looked sharp under center and I think the pivot carries that momentum over here.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Baltimore is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against teams with losing records. I think Flacco struggles in this difficult venue and I look for Roethlisberger and company to step up on the National stage. Lay the points.

The set-up: Both teams come in at 1-2 and each will be hungry for a victory here. The only difference is, the 49ers lost the services of starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo for the remainder of the season to injury last week. I think veteran QB Phillip Rivers takes full advantage and puts the pressure on the visitors from start to finish.

The teams: San Fran enters off a 38-27 loss to KC. Not only is Garoppolo out, but so too is defensive specialist Richard Sherman with a quad injury.

LA comes in off a 12 point loss to the Rams. Rivers already has 906 yards, eight TD’s and one INT, while Melvin Gordon has 172 yards and two scores on the ground. WR Keenan Allen has 219 receiving yards and a TD as well.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but LA is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game, while San Fran is interestingly just 1-8 ATS in its last nine after posting more than 150 yards rushing in its previous outing. Look for the Chargers to go straight for the jugular. Lay the points.

The set-up: Miami is 3-0 to open the season and it’ll be looking to kick New England when its down. The Pats enter off a horrible 26-10 road loss to Detroit and I think they’re ripe for the picking here. The outright isn’t out of the question. Note that New England took the first game last season 35-17, before the Fish countered with a 27-20 home win in the second.

The teams: Miami’ QB Ryan Tannehill had 289 passing yards and three TD’s in a victory over the Raiders. He now has 687 passing yards and a 7:2 TD/INT. WR Kenny Still had 61 receiving yards last week and overall he has 184. Miami is averaging 25 PPG and it’s allowing 17.3 (good for sixth.)

New England’s season will essentially be over if it falls to 1-3. Miami can smell the blood in the water and will look to take advantage of a Patriots team which is averaging 19 PPG and allowing 25.7 (21st overall).

The pick: Take it for what you will, but the Pats are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after posting less than 150 passing yards in their previous game, while the Fish are 4-1 ATS in their last five following a SU victory. “The Changing Of The Guard” is happening right before our eyes. Get ready for it. But grab the points just in case!

The set-up: Buffalo comes in off a commanding 27-6 road win over Minnesota last week and I think it’ll carry that confidence and momentum over here. Green Bay comes in dejected after it’s 31-17 road loss to Washington.

The teams: Buffalo is averaging 16.7 PPG and it’s allowing 28. Those numbers are a bit skewed though I think after two really horrible games to open the season. With QB Josh Allen finally getting comfortable, clearly the Bills looked a lot better last week. Allen was 15 of 22 for 196 yards, one TD and he also added two more rushing TD’s. The defense also rebounded in a big way and it’ll have some opportunities to make some plays today too I think.

Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers had 265 passing yards with two TD’s. He played with a brace on his knee and he was seen many times hobbling around. The run game mustered a paltry 87 yards. overall the Pack is averaging 23.3 PPG and it’s allowing 27.7.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Green Bay is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 following a SU loss, while Buffalo is 8-2 ATS in its last ten after allowing less than 15 points in its previous contest. I’ll even recommend “sprinkling a little” on the money line. That said, grab the points!

The set-up: The Vikes are 1-1-1 and they’ll be laying everything on the line on the short week to try and score the upset here and avoid the 1-2-1 hole. LA is 3-0 and it’ll be out to avoid any letdowns here and to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. I think points are going to be plentiful.

The teams: The Vikes beat the 49ers 24-16 at home in Week 1 and then followed that up with a hard-fought 29-29 tie with Green Bay on the road. But Minnesota comes into this one off a terrible 27-6 home loss to Buffalo, a game in which it was a 17 point favorite. Two critical first half fumbles didn’t help their cause obviously. Another loss here and Minnesota’s season is “on the ropes” essentially.

The Rams would love nothing more than to deliver the “knock out blow” as well. LA beat the Raiders 33-13 on the road on MNF in Week 1, then followed it up with a 34-0 destruction of Arizona in Week 2 and then last week it pulled away for the 35-23 home victory over the Chargers. QB Jared Goff had 354 yards and three TD’s last week.

The pick: Minnesota can’t sit back and hope things work out. The Vikes’ offense has to produce tonight, or they’re going to get left behind by the high-powered Rams. LA’s greatest strength early it seems is that it can play any style of game. Wide open, defensive battle, either way it’s adapted its style early and done well in every scenario. I’m anticipating a more wide open affair today. Play the “over.”

The set-up: Two hungry teams collide on Monday night and I think points are going to be plentiful. Tampa is 2-0 to open the year with wins over New Orleans and Philadelphia, while Pittsburgh comes in desperate at 0-1-1, with a tie against the Browns, followed by a loss to the Chiefs.

The teams: Pittsburgh’s defense is in shambles after allowing 21 points to Cleveland (14 of which came in the fourth quarter), along with 42 to Kansas City. KC posted 326 passing yards and Pat Mahomes had six TD’s. Mahomes was sacked just once and the Steelers defense has just two total turnovers over the first two weeks. While Ben Roethlisberger is down some offensive weapons, he’ll clearly be given the green light today to air the ball out.

Tampa QB Ryan Fitzpatrick will look to take immediate advantage of the Steelers’ porous defense, so far he’s completed 78.7 percent of his passes for 819 yards, eight TD’s and one INT over the first two games. DeSean Jackson had five catches and 146 yards with two TD’s in the win over the Saints.

The pick: Pittsburgh’s offense is going to have to put some points on the board today, because it knows that its defense isn’t going to stop anyone. This one has the feel of a wide-open shootout. Play the “over.”

The set-up: New York is 1-1, looking great in Week 1, but stumbling in Week 2. Cleveland has been very competitive in both of its losses to open the season. These are two young and hungry teams looking for a big win on a short week and in my opinion, this one has “shootout” written all over it.

The teams: New York has lost five of its last six on the road. QB Sam Darnold so far has 532 yards, three TD’s and three INT’s. The Jets are averaging 105.5 yards on the ground per game. The defense has been a bright spot early in allowing just 18.5 points, but I think that the unit comes in “gassed” on the short week.

Cleveland is desperate. The Browns haven’t won a game since Christmas Eve 2016. QB Tyrod Taylor has 443 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s so far. The ground game has been a strength, averaging 135 YPG, with Carlos Hyde leading the charge with 105 yards and two TD’s. Cleveland has been decent defensively as well, allowing 21 PPG.

The pick: If not for some “back luck,” the Browns could actually be 2-0 to start the season. I think the home side opens up the playbook today as it lays everything on the line to try and secure the victory on the National stage. Darnold and company won’t be going down without a fight though. Play the “over.”

The set-up: Both teams come in at 0-1 and only one will leave this contest with a victory. I think that home field will prove to be the difference for Chicago.

The teams: Seattle threw everything it had on the line in Week 1, but it still came up short in a 27-24 setback in Denver. The offense lost star WR Doug Baldwin to injury and his return in unknown at this point. RB Chris Carson had 51 yards, but no receiver caught more than four passes. QB Russell Wilson had 298 yards, three TD’s and two INT’s, but he was just 19 of 33 overall.

The Bears lost 24-23 in Green Bay. The defense looked great until the final moments when it gave up a 75 yard TD strike to Randall Cobb. QB Mitch Trubisky had 171 passing yards and 32 yards and a TD on the ground. RB Jordan Howard at 85 yards on 15 carries. Khalil Mack put on a show defensively and I think he’s going to have a big night here as well against the Seahawks’ suspect O-line.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 at home (also 6-2 ATS in its last eight MNF contests), while Seattle is interestingly 0-4 ATS in its last four Week 2 contests. The Hawks were a terrible 2 for 12 on third down against the Broncos and now they face a similar swarming defensive unit. I like Trubisky to find a way to get the job done at home. Lay the points.

The set-up: Both teams looked terrible last week. This one has the feel of a “chess match,” one which is going to be decided by whichever side has its hands on the ball last. In a scenario like that, I’m going to grab the points every time.

The teams: New York lost 20-15 at home to Jacksonville. RB Saquon Barkley was a stand out with 106 yards and a TD. Eli Manning had 223 yards, no TD’s and an INT. The veteran should make significant progression as the season wears on though. The defense was sharp overall, allowing just 305 yards.

Dallas looked horrible offensively in Week 1 and it all falls onto QB Dak Prescott’s shoulders. He was 19 of 29 for 17 yards. He also lost a fumble. He was also sacked six times. The beleaguered Cowboys’ QB is getting progressively worse with each outing as he’s now thrown for 200 yards or less in seven of his past nine games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Dallas is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home, while New York is interestingly 4-1 ATS in its last five Week 2 contests. The Jags have one of the best defensive units in the league, but New York faces a much more manageable opponent this week. The outright isn’t out of the question, but I’m going to grab the points.

The set-up: I like the Lions to bounce back on the road here after a tough setback in Week 1. The 49ers also lost in Week 1 and I think they’re ripe for the picking.

The teams: Detroit was humbled 48-17 last week and new head coach Pat Patricia is already on the hot seat. The Lions would give up 31 third-quarter points: “It came to a point there in the third quarter where we just didn’t have control anymore in all three phases,” Patricia assessed. “We just have to do a better job. Obviously, we have to coach this a lot better than what we did tonight and we have to go out and execute a lot better on the field. We have to do a better job altogether. It starts with me.” QB Matt Stafford had 286 yards, while the defense allowed 169 rushing yards.

San Francisco didn’t look too much better in its 24-16 loss at Minnesota. QB Jimmy Garoppolo looked poor, going 15 of 33 for 261 yards, one TD and three INT’s. Is there any QB more over-rated than this guy? The 49ers finished with just 13 points on four trips inside the Red Zone. The team lost the services of WR Marquise Goodwin to injury also.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Francisco is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 at home and only 1-4 ATS in its last five as a favorite. I expect a hard-fought battle, one which will likely be decided by whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last. Grab the points.

The set-up: Indianapolis fell 34-23 to the Bengals at home in its opener, while Washington took care of business in Arizona 24-6. The Colts hit the road for the first time in a hostile environment this season and I think they’ll have an even more difficult time moving the ball in Week 2. Indianapolis played better defensively than what last week’s score would indicate and I think the unit will have opportunities today as well. This number is high.

The teams: Colts’ QB Andrew Luck had 319 passing yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. No. 1 RB Marlon Mack was out and he’s questionable for this one as well. WR TY Hilton had just five catches for 46 yards. As mentioned off the top, the defense was decent despite the final score, as one of the TD’s conceded was a defensive one.

Washington QB Alex Smith had 255 passing yards and two TD passes last week. The run game stole the show offensively though with 182 combined, led by Adrian Peterson with 96. The defense was outstanding, holding the Cardinals to only 213 yards and 1 of 8 on third down attempts.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Indy has seen the total go “under” the number in four of its last five as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Washington has seen the total go “under” in five of its last six as a favorite in the same points range. This number is high, play the “under.”

The set-up: Both teams are hungry here after Week 1 setbacks. Both clubs looked horrible defensively last weekend and I think that’ll be the case here again as well. This number is a little low.

The teams: The Bills lost 47-3 last week. Josh Allen has been named the starting QB in Week 2 after Nathan Peterman imploded. LeSean McCoy only had 22 yards last week, after finishing with over 1,100 last year. Clearly the only way the Buffalo offense can go is up. The defense gave up 369 yards, including allowing Baltimore to go 6 for 6 in the Red Zone.

LA QB Philip Rivers will be looking to exploit the Bills’ weak pass defense. The Chargers were decent defensively last year, but the unit struggled in Week 1 and I think it’ll have its hands full here against a Buffalo offense that’s out to atone itself.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA has seen the total go “over” in four of its last six as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Buffalo has seen the total go “over” in 12 of its last 15 at home. With each side pushing the pace and hungry for a win, I look for this total to fly “over” sooner, rather than later.

The set-up: The Falcons have been over-rated for quite some time in my estimation. Atlanta had several chances to deliver the knock out blow to Eagles in Week 1, but the offense stalled in the Red Zone on three different occasions, with the visitors coming up completely empty. With that loss still on their minds, I think the Falcons are ripe for the picking here. The Panthers will be happy to oblige as they look to move to 2-0 and gain an early critical victory over a divisional foe.

The teams: Carolina prevailed 16-8 against Dallas last week, holding the Cowboys to 0 for 5 on third down in the first half. Cam Newton had his hands full for the most of the game, but he made some big plays when he needed too. And now he faces a much more suspect defensive unit in the Falcons.

Atlanta QB Matt Ryan had 251 yards, no TD’s and an INT in last week’s 18-12 loss at Philadelphia. The defense looked decent, but the book is still out on the Eagles offense at this point, so it’s hard to read too much into what the Falcons’ unit did in Week 1.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Carolina is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 on the road, while Atlanta is just 12-13 ATS in its last 25 as a favorite. Grab the points, play on Carolina.

The set-up: This is an important early season divisional match-up. Both teams enter off high-scoring Week 1 victories, but on the short turn-around on Thursday night I’m expecting more of a “chess match” than a “run and gun shootout.”

The teams: Baltimore opened the season with a 47-3 destruction of the Bills. The Ravens’ starters were rested for a great deal of the Week 1 blowout, including Joe Flacco, who was 25 of 34 for 236 yards and three TD’s. The Ravens’ defense was downright dominant though, holding the Bills to only 83 rushing yards and 70 passing yards.

Cincinnati opened the year with a come-from-behind 34-23 road victory over the Colts. QB Andy Dalton was 21 of 28 for 243 yards, two TD’s and an interception. Last year the Bengals finished last in the NFL with only 280.5 yards of offense per game, so clearly this Week 1 victory was a step in the right direction. However, Dalton and company, especially WR AJ Green, have struggled against the Ravens’ ferocious defensive attack in the past and I think that’s going to be the case again here tonight also.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Baltimore has seen the total go “under” the number in eight of its last 12 against the division, while Cincinnati has seen the total go “under” in ten of its last 16 as an underdog. This number is high, play the “under.”

The set-up: LA catches a break here after Jon Gruden traded defensive star Khalil Mack to the Bears for some draft picks. The Rams had the league’s highest scoring offense last year, so we can absolutely expect the visitors to push the pace and open up the playbook from start to finish.

The teams: LA went 2-2 in the preseason, but it would rest most of its starters over those four games. Jared Goff and Todd Gurley are back and they now welcome dangerous WR Brandin Cooks to the mix. The Rams spent a ton of money on the defensive side of the ball in the offseason, but I think the unit will struggle on opening night.

Jordy Nelson will be the main WR in Oakland now that Michael Crabtree is gone. Amari Cooper will also be hoping for a much better season after totalling just 680 yards in 14 games last season.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Oakland has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine Week 1 home games when the total in the contest is between 47 and 50 points. With LA pushing the tempo of this one and with the home side having no choice but to match pace, I’m banking on this one flying “over” sooner, rather than later.

The set-up: The Jets turn to rookie QB Sam Darnold in Week 1 and while the sky could in fact be the limit for the red-headed pivot, I think he’ll stumble trying to match pace with Lions’ veteran Matt Stafford. The teams: In three exhibition games Darnold went 29 of 45 for 244 yards and two TD’s with an INT. The Jets have talent, but no big names. Jermaine Kearse had 65 catches for 810 yards last year, but note that he could be unable to play in Week 1 due to an injury he suffered in the preseason. Bilal Powell and Isaiah Crowell lead a decent ground game. The defense was a strength for New York last year and the unit should be again this season as well. Matt Patricia takes over as head coach for the Lions, as he looks to get the team over the hump. Stafford finished with 4,449 yards, 29 TD’s and ten INT’s last season. LeGarrette Blount was signed in the offseason and he’s expected to bolster a run game which was severely lacking last year. Also note that both of Stafford’s 1,000 yard receivers return in Marvin Jones Jr. and Golden Tate.  The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last six Monday Night Football games, while New York is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five road games as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. Lay the points and expect a rout. Play on Detroit.

The set-up: It’s an important early NFC North match-up on Sunday Night Football and when the smoke clears at the end of this one, I think it’ll be the defenses from each side which will define this contest in the end. Chicago hasn’t been to the playoffs since 2010, while Green Bay missed the postseason last year with QB Aaron Rodgers injured.

The teams: Chicago got Khalil Mack from Oakland and he’s going to make an immediate impact on an already stacked defensive uint: “We’ll get to see where he’s at mentally and then physically we’ll have a practice and get an idea, and then we’ll just kind of have to listen to his feedback where he’s at,” head coach Matt Nagy said earlier in the week. “We told him, communication is imperative here.” The defense also has standouts Akiem Hick and CB Prince Amukamara.

Rodgers is back under center for Green Bay and he looks primed for another productive campaign. However note that the Pack head into the 2018/19 campaign after massive organizational turnover, because of last year’s losing effort. Rodgers is fantastic, but there are still a few questions that need to be answered for Green Bay in my opinion.

The pick: I think the Packers are a bit one-dimensional and the new look Bears offense is going to be able to slow it down and take advantage. This one has the feel of a “chess match,” rather than a “run and gun” shootout. Play the “under.”

The set-up: Two teams which fell well below expectations last year collide on opening day on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, points appear plentiful.

The teams: Dez Bryant and Jason Witten are gone, but the Cowboys are in good hands with Dak Prescott and a fully healthy and ready to go Ezekiel Elliot. Dallas has a lot of questions on both sides of the ball, but the offense is going to be given the green light to “air it out” all day long this afternoon.

The Panthers went 3-1 in the preseason, dropping only their Week 4 contest. Cam Newton had a strong camp and I think he’ll have a big day here against a Cowboys’ defense which also has many question marks surrounding it. Kelvin Benjamin, Greg Olsen and Devin Funchess highlight a deep overall offense for Carolina.

The pick: Newton looked good under new offensive coordinator Norv Turner’s schemes in the pre-season, which doesn’t bode well for the visitors today. Prescott and company will be forced to match pace and in the end, look for this one to fly “over” sooner, rather than later.

The set-up: Kick Cousins makes his Vikings debut against the 49ers and QB Jimmy Garappolo. The 49ers blew up their team after ten games last year and they never looked back with Garappolo under center. That said, I think he’ll be in for a rude awakening at what will undoubtedly be a rowdy atmosphere at the US Bank Stadium.

The teams: Garoppolo was 5-0 as a starter for San Francisco last year. It was an unbelievable run, but regression seems imminent in my opinion.

The Vikings possessed the best defensive unit in the league last year, one which was even better in front of the home town crowd.

The pick: This is an “early,” release, so I plan on updating my analysis as we get closer to game time. However, over the time of this release and when this one kicks off, I do indeed expect this line to climb. Normally at this time of year the defensive units are many steps ahead of the offensive side and that’s exactly what I’m expecting in this one. Combined with the competent Cousins and a Vikings team looking to take out its frustrations after the loss in the NFC Championship Game last year, this one has “blowout” written all over it in my opinion. Lay the points, play on the Vikes.

The set-up: Many will be on Pittsburgh here I think. But the Browns looked sharp in the preseason with their “new look” line-up and I think they’ll keep this one interesting late. The Steelers were 13-3 last year, while Cleveland was 0-16. Not surprisingly this is indeed a “revenge” game for the Browns, who lost both games last season.

The teams: The Steelers averaged 25.4 PPG last year and allowed 19.3. Ben Roethlisberger is back under center, and Le’Veon Bell is back as RB. Note Bell did not play in a single preseason game, the same as last year.

The Browns have plenty of new weapons on both sides of the ball and up and down the lines. Tyrod Taylor had 2,799 passing yards with a 14:4 TD/INT ratio last year for the Bills, as well as adding 427 rushing yards. Taylor, along with RB Carlos Hyde and WR Josh Gordon present a difficult challenge for anyone. In 11 games last year Myles Garrett made seven sacks, but the talented defender now comes into this season at 100% health finally.

The pick: While they did lose both games to the Steelers last year, the Browns would make it competitive each time, falling 28-24 and 21-18. When the smoke clears at the end of this one I think we’ll see similarly hard-fought battle. Grab the points.

The set-up: The Titans finished 9-7 last year and they beat the Chiefs 22-21 in the Wild card round of the playoffs, before then falling 35-14 to New England in the Divisional round. The Fish were just 6-10 last year, but with the return of QB Ryan Tannehill, Miami is hoping for a return to the postseason. Tannehill though lacks talent around him and I think the “deeper” Titans will pull away down the stretch.

The teams: Tennessee’ QB Marcus Mariota had 3,232 yards with 13 TDs and 15 INTs last season. He also had 312 yards and five scores on the ground. RB Derrick Henry leads the ground attack after DeMarco Murray retired and he had 744 yards and five TD’s last year.

Tannehill makes his first appearance since 2016, when he went for 2,995 yards 19 TD’s and 12 INT’s. Kenyan Drake had 644 yards and three TD’s rushing last year, while WR Danny Amendola had 659 yards and two TD’s.

The pick: For this pick I’m going to focus on the starting QB’s and while Tannehill could be the saviour once again for Miami, I think Marriota is the correct call here. The Titans’ pivot comes off a very successful season and he should only be better again this year under the same system. This one has blowout written all over it, play on Tennessee.

The set-up: Two teams with something to prove in 2018/19 collide on Opening Night and in my opinion, scoring is going to be plentiful. The Falcons lost to Philadelphia 15-10 in the NFC Divisional playoffs back on January 13th and they’ll obviously be looking to avenge that setback. Philadelphia has question marks all over the place, but the defending champs are still loaded with talent on both sides of the ball.

The teams: Last year the Falcons led the league in dropped passes with 30. QB Matt Ryan will be expecting better from his talented group this year. Ryan had 4,095 yards, 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions last season. Julio Jones had 1,444 receiving yards, but just three major scores. ATL still possess one of the best “one-two” RB combo’s in Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman as well. The Eagles allowed only 19.7 PPG last year, but note that they had just eight INT’s overall.

Carson Wentz? Nick Foles? Whoever starts under center for Philadelphia, the home side is in good hands. In three playoff games Foles completed 72.6 percent of his passes. Jay Ajayi is the main RB now, along with Corey Clement, who is a great pass catcher out of the backfield. The strength of the offense is the line though and it will be once again this year as well with the return of Pro Bowl LT Jason Peters.

The pick: The last thing Atlanta can do here is play to the Eagles “pace.” Look for the high-flying visitors to push the tempo from start to finish and expect this total to soar “over” as it comes down the stretch.

The set-up: The New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles meet Sunday at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis for Super Bowl 52. It's common knowledge that the Patriots have a chance to win the sixth Super Bowl title in franchise history, all of which have come since the 2001 NFL season, during the Belichick and Brady era. Meanwhile, the Eagles are looking for the first Super Bowl title in franchise history (lost to the Raiders in Super Bowl and the Pats in Super Bowl), as well as the franchise's first NFL championship since the 1960 season. That team beat Lombardi's Packers, handing the coaching legend his only postseason loss (9-1). Both teams went 13-3 SU, with the Pats going 11-5 ATS and the Eagles, 10-6.

Philadelphia: Carson Wentz was a MVP candidate before getting hurt in Week 15. Nick Foles has endured an uneven ride as his replacement. while filling in for the injured Carson Wentz. He replaced an injured Wentz against the Giants and completed 24 of 38 with four TD passes but then was a combined 23 of 49 for 202 yards (one TD / two INTs) in Weeks 16 & 17. However, he completed 23-of-30 passes for 246 yards in the 15-10 win over the Falcons and then 'exploded' in the NFC championship game romp over the Vikings. Foles completed 26 of 33 for 352 yards with three TDs and zero INTs, giving him a 141.4 QB rating. He's backed by a solid running game that averaged 132.3 YPG on the ground during the regular season, 3rd-best in the NFL. Jay Ajayi stumbled out of the blocks with a fumble on his first carry against Atlanta, before finishing with 54 yards rushing and 44 receiving on three catches. He then ran for 73 yards vs. the Vikings and caught three more passes for 26 yards. He has become Philadelphia's top option out of the backfield following an in-season trade with Miami, although LeGarrette Blount (team-high 776 yards in the regular season) had a rushing TD in each of Philly's two playoff wins. Philly owns an excellent defense. It ranked 4th in scoring (18.4 PPG) and total D (306.5 YPG) during the regular season and held Matt Ryan and the Falcons scoreless in the second half of that divisional round win and to just 10 points for the game on just 281 yards. It then followed by allowing the game's first TD against the Vikings, before shutting them out the remainder of the game.

New England: Brady had another remarkable season (4,577 passing yards with 32 TDs and just eight INTs for a 102.8 QB rating), as the Pats led the NFL in total offense (394.2 YPG) and scored the second-most points at 28.6 PPG. Brady owns the most postseason wins in history and added to his playoff legacy vs the Titans by passing for more than 300 yards (337) for the 13th time and surpassing Joe Montana with his 10th three-touchdown performance. Brady and his "injured" right hand then led the Pats to two 4th-quarter TDs in coming back from 20-10 down against the Jags, to win 24-20. He was 26 of 38 for 290 yards with two TDs, zero INTs and a 108.4 QB against Jacksonville's dominant defense, giving him his 27th postseason win. Four New England players had at least 56 catches in the regular season with TE Rob Gronkowski topping the list with 69 receptions (15.7 YPC) and eight TDs. Gronk was KO'd against heh Jags but is expected to be back. However, in Gronk's absence, Cooks had six catches for 100 yards and Amendola had seven catches fo 84 yards, including both TDs in the fourth quarter. RB Dion Lewis had rushed for at least 60 yards in seven of his last eight games but was held to 34 yards. However, he caught seven passes against the Jags, after catching nine against the Titans. New England finished the season allowing 18.5 PPG but it allowed 32.0 PPG through its first four games, before allowing only just 14.0 PPG over its last 12. In two playoff wins, the Pats then held the Titans to just 14 points and 267 yards and the Jags to 20 points (just two FGs in the second half).

The pick: Physical play still matters in this league and the Eagles have the edge in that department. The Patriots famously use a committee in the backfield (although Lewis has been the "main man" lately) and it's hard to ignore that the Eagles led the NFL against the run, allowing just 79.2 YPG. They then held Atlanta and Minnesota to a combined 156 yards in the two playoff wins. Philly can lean on Jay Ajayi and LeGarrette Blount against a New England rush D that allowed 4.71 yards per rush, second most in the NFL. Ajayi, who ran for more than 1,000 yards with the Dolphins last year, was traded to Philly in October and had an impressive 5.8 yards per carry while sharing the workload with Blount, who won a Super Bowl ring with the Pats last year and is an excellent short-yardage (goal-line) runner. Of course, no one is comparing Foles with Brady but he has completed 77.8 percent of his passes in two playoff wins, without an INT in 63 attempts. Also, just how does one ignore that the first five Belichick/Brady Super Bowls were decided by four points or less, before last year's game ended in OT, with the Pats winning by six. Take the points and make Philly a 10* play.

The set-up: The New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles meet Sunday at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis for Super Bowl 52. It's common knowledge that the Patriots have a chance to win the sixth Super Bowl title in franchise history, all of which have come since the 2001 NFL season, during the Belichick and Brady era. Meanwhile, the Eagles are looking for the first Super Bowl title in franchise history (lost to the Raiders in Super Bowl and the Pats in Super Bowl), as well as the franchise's first NFL championship since the 1960 season. That team beat Lombardi's Packers, handing the coaching legend his only postseason loss (9-1). Both teams went 13-3 SU, with the Pats going 11-5 ATS and the Eagles, 10-6.

Philadelphia: Carson Wentz was a MVP candidate before getting hurt in Week 15. Nick Foles has endured an uneven ride as his replacement. while filling in for the injured Carson Wentz. He replaced an injured Wentz against the Giants and completed 24 of 38 with four TD passes but then was a combined 23 of 49 for 202 yards (one TD / two INTs) in Weeks 16 & 17. However, he completed 23-of-30 passes for 246 yards in the 15-10 win over the Falcons and then 'exploded' in the NFC championship game romp over the Vikings. Foles completed 26 of 33 for 352 yards with three TDs and zero INTs, giving him a 141.4 QB rating. He's backed by a solid running game that averaged 132.3 YPG on the ground during the regular season, 3rd-best in the NFL. Jay Ajayi stumbled out of the blocks with a fumble on his first carry against Atlanta, before finishing with 54 yards rushing and 44 receiving on three catches. He then ran for 73 yards vs. the Vikings and caught three more passes for 26 yards. He has become Philadelphia's top option out of the backfield following an in-season trade with Miami, although LeGarrette Blount (team-high 776 yards in the regular season) had a rushing TD in each of Philly's two playoff wins. Philly owns an excellent defense. It ranked 4th in scoring (18.4 PPG) and total D (306.5 YPG) during the regular season and held Matt Ryan and the Falcons scoreless in the second half of that divisional round win and to just 10 points for the game on just 281 yards. It then followed by allowing the game's first TD against the Vikings, before shutting them out the remainder of the game.

New England: Brady had another remarkable season (4,577 passing yards with 32 TDs and just eight INTs for a 102.8 QB rating), as the Pats led the NFL in total offense (394.2 YPG) and scored the second-most points at 28.6 PPG. Brady owns the most postseason wins in history and added to his playoff legacy vs the Titans by passing for more than 300 yards (337) for the 13th time and surpassing Joe Montana with his 10th three-touchdown performance. Brady and his "injured" right hand then led the Pats to two 4th-quarter TDs in coming back from 20-10 down against the Jags, to win 24-20. He was 26 of 38 for 290 yards with two TDs, zero INTs and a 108.4 QB against Jacksonville's dominant defense, giving him his 27th postseason win. Four New England players had at least 56 catches in the regular season with TE Rob Gronkowski topping the list with 69 receptions (15.7 YPC) and eight TDs. Gronk was KO'd against heh Jags but is expected to be back. However, in Gronk's absence, Cooks had six catches for 100 yards and Amendola had seven catches fo 84 yards, including both TDs in the fourth quarter. RB Dion Lewis had rushed for at least 60 yards in seven of his last eight games but was held to 34 yards. However, he caught seven passes against the Jags, after catching nine against the Titans. New England finished the season allowing 18.5 PPG but it allowed 32.0 PPG through its first four games, before allowing only just 14.0 PPG over its last 12. In two playoff wins, the Pats then held the Titans to just 14 points and 267 yards and the Jags to 20 points (just two FGs in the second half).

The pick: Sure, it's Foles and not Wentz at QB but tell that do a Minnesota defense which entered the NFC championship game ranking first in points allowed (15.8) and total defense (275.9), as well as second in passing yards allowed (192.4). Foles completed 26 of 33 for 352 yards with three TDs and zero INTs (giving him a 141.4 QB rating), as the Eagles rolled up 38 points. The New England defense has real issues against the run (4.71 YPC) and Foles has two quality RBs in Ajayi and Blount. Sure, the Philly defense is stout and physical but doesn't Brady "always find a way" to move the chains and put points on the board? The Pats have averaged 30.1 PPG since their bye week (10 games, including the postseason), having been held to less than 24 points just twice. The Over is an 8* play.

The set-up: The Minnesota Vikings were 8-8 in 2016 and the Philadelphia Eagles went 7-9. However, each went 13-3 during the 2017 season and after both escaped with wins last weekend, the two will meet in the NFC championship game this Sunday at Lincoln Financial Field (note: The Eagles won the tie break over the Vikings based on best win percentage in common games). Minnesota earned a stunning last-second comeback 29-24 victory over the Saints to reach this game (do I really need to recap it?), while the Eagles benefited from a late defensive stand to fend off Atlanta, 15-10. From the "you can't make this stuff up" department, we have the following. Nick Foles was traded from Philly to the Rams for Sam Bradford, who was later traded to Minnesota, where he started in ahead of Case Keenum before he got hurt. Now Foles is back in Philly and will lead the Eagles in the NFC Championship game, where he will face the Vikings, whose two QBs are Keenum (now the starter) and Bradford (injured).

Minnesota: Case Keenum entered this season with a 9-15 record as a starting QB but has thrived as Minnesota's starter in 2017, after Bradford was lost to an injury. He threw for career-high 3,547 yards 22 touchdowns and seven INTs for a 98.3 QB rating. He then threw for 318 yards against the Saints with his only TD pass coming on that game's final play. It will be forever known as the "Minneapolis Miracle," a 61-yard scoring pass to Stefon Diggs which gave the Vikings a 29-24 triumph over the Saints. Diggs overcame a slow start to finish with six catches for 137 yards and a TD against the Saints, giving him 28 receptions and four scores in his last five games. Fellow WR Adam Thielen (team-leading 91 catches for 1,276 yards) finished with six receptions versus New Orleans. The Vikings running game was solid this season (122.3 YPG ranked 7th) but was held to just 95 yards vs. the Saints. However, Latavius Murray rushed for a touchdown last week to increase his total to 22 since 2016 (including playoff games). Minnesota's defense could not stop the Saints in the second half (after shutting them out in the first half) but on the season ranked No. 1 in the NFL in both scoring D (15.8 PPG) and total D (275.9 YPG).

Philadelphia; Nick Foles has endured an uneven ride while filling in for the injured Carson Wentz. He repalced an injured Wentz against teh Giants and completed 24 of 38 with four TD passes but then was a combined 23 of 49 for 202 yards (one TD / two INTs) in Weeks 16 & 17). He hadn't given Philly's fickle fans much to cheer about in leading the Eagles to just 16 points in their last nine quarters of the regular season. However, he completed 23-of-30 passes for 246 yards in the 15-10 win over the Falcons. He's backed by a solid running game that averaged 132.3 YPG on the ground during the regular season, 3rd-best in the NFL. Jay Ajayi stumbled out of the blocks with a fumble on his first carry last week before finishing with 54 yards rushing and 44 receiving on three catches. He has become Philadelphia's top option out of the backfield following an in-season trade with Miami, although LeGarrette Blount (team-high 776 yards in the regular season) scored the only Philly TD vs. the Falcons. Like Minnesota, Philly owns an excellent defense. It ranked 4th in scoring (18.4 PPG) and total D (306.5 YPG) during the regular season and held Matt Ryan and the Falcons scoreless in the second half of last weekend's win and to just 10 points for the game on just 281 yards.

The pick: Minnesota is hoping to snap a string of five straight losses in the NFC championship game and advance to the Super Bowl for the first time since Super Bowl XI (note: The Vikings are 0-4 all-time in Super Bowls). Philadelphia lost its last NFC title game appearance against Arizona in the 2008 season but it did win the last time it hosted the contest (27-10 win over Atlanta, in the 2004 season). Philly fans should be buoyed by the fact that home team has won the last EIGHT conference championship games (AFC and NFC the last four years!). One last thing I picked up from ESPN Stats. The last five NFL teams that won playoff games with a walk-off TD lost their next game, by an average of 23 points! Make Philly an 8* play.

The set-up: No one is surprised that the Pats are once again in the AFC championship game or that they are the AFC's No. 1 seed. After all, this mark the 12th AFC title game in the Belichick/Brady era (seventh at home), including the team's SEVENTH straight appearance in an AFC title game. The Pats are 7-4 SU but just 6-5 ATS in this duos previous 11 appearances, including 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS the six played here in Foxboro. The same thing can't be said for the Jacksonville Jaguars, who when from last (3-13) in the AFC South in 2016 to first (10-6) in 2017 and then has beaten the Bills (10-3) and Steelers (45-42) to advance to the franchise's third-ever AFC title game (previous appearances came in 1996 and 1999). However, Bill Belichick dismissed the idea that the been-there-won-that factor gives his team a huge edge. "I don’t think experience has anything to do with that," Belichick, who has guided New England to seven Super Bowls - winning five - since 2001, told reporters. "It is what happens Sunday, not what happened last year, two years ago, five years ago, 15 years ago, 1996 or whatever it is. Those games don’t make any difference, with all due respect."

Jacksonville: The Jags played what many people called an "unwatchable" game in edging the Bills 10-3 in the wild card round but are brimming with confidence in the wake of last week's 45-42 win at No. 2 seed Pittsburgh. Jacksonville featured the league's top-ranked rushing attack in the regular season (159.5 YPG on 4.6 YPC) led by rookie Leonard Fournette (1,40 yards and nine rushing TDs), who ran for 109 yards and three TDs last week. QB Blake Bortles was close to being benched in the preseason but with no other real options, the Jags stuck with him. He was nothing special this season but did cut down on his mistakes in leading the team to a 10-4 record but he then rasied concerns by throwing five INTs in the season's final two games. However, while he's completed just 53.1 percent of his passes in the two playoff wins, he has not committed a turnover. The Jaguars' D has been excellent all season, surrendering a league-low 169.9 YPG passing while ranking second in sacks (55) and interceptions (21). Overall, the defense ranked second in total D (286.1 YPG) and scoring D (16.8 PPG).

New England: That Jacksonville D will be tested by Brady, who had another remarkable season (4,577 passing yards with 32 TDs and just eight INTs for a 102.8 QB rating). The Pats led the NFL in total offense (394.2 YPG) and scored the second-most points at 28.6 PPG. Brady owns the most postseason wins (26) in history and added to his playoff legacy last week, passing for more than 300 yards (337) for the 13th time and surpassing Joe Montana with his 10th three-touchdown performance. RB Dion Lewis (896 yards on 5.0 YPC in the regular season) has rushed for at least 60 yards in seven of his last eight games and added a season-high nine catches last week. Four New England players have at least 56 catches with TE Rob Gronkowski toppomh the list with 69 receptions (15.7 YPC) and eight TDs. He has 34 receptions and four TDs over his last four contests. The New England finsihed teh season allowing 18.5 PPG but it allwed 32.0 PPG through its first four games, before allowing only just 14.0 PPG over ist last 12. The Pats then held the Titans to just 14 points and 267 yards last weekend.

The pick: The Patriots are 6-1 in AFC title games at home(5-1 under Belichick/Brady) and have won 10 of their 11 all-time meetings with Jacksonville.However, as everyone knows, the status of Brady's right hand is an unknown factor. He may be just fine but then again...Either way, this Jacksonville defense gives the Jags a "punchers chance," as the three teams that beat the Pats this season were able to rush Brady, force mistakes and prevent the offense from getting in a groove. The Jags are certainly capable of doing just that. Jacksonville led the NFL with seven defensive TDs during the regular season and added another score versus Pittsburgh. The Jags' pass D held opposing QBs to a league-low 56.8 completion percentage and a league-low QB rating of 68.5. I'm taking the big points and making the Jags a 10* play.

Minnesota: Case Keenum came into this season 9-15 as an NFL starter but became a dark-horse MVP candidate after recording career highs in completions (325), attempts (481), yards (3,547), touchdowns (22) and passer rating (98.3) while posting an 11-3 mark as a starter. The QB position wasn't Minnesota's only notable change from the season opener ,as Latavius Murray's workload was nondescript before impressive rookie Dalvin Cook saw his season end due to an ACL injury. Murray recorded eight TDs in his last 10 games of the season (finished with 842 yards rushing), while fellow RB Jerick McKinnon (570 yards rushing) caught 43 of his 51 receptions over the last 12 games. Minnesota ended the regular season averaging 122.3 YPG on the ground, ranking 7th. WR Stefon Diggs overcame injury issues to catch 64 passes and matched TE Rudolph (57 catches) for a team-high eight TD receptions. Thielen led all Viking receivers with 91 catches and 1,276 receiving yards. Minnesota had a better than expected offense but it was the defense which was he "star of the show," ranking first in the NFL in points allowed (15.8 per) and total defense (275.9 YPG) on the season.

The pick: I noted that the New Orleans' D under-performed last weekend but on the season allowed just 20.4 PPG (10th) in 2017, after allowing 29.8 and 28.4 PPG the last two seasons. It's also noteworthy here that after developing a reputation as a dominant home team but a 'patsy' on the road, the Saints have gone 13-5 ATS in their last 18 road games. With the Saints' D significantly upgraded, Brees and head coach Sean Payton, having already done the playoff and Super Bowl thing before, have the Saints sporting a dangerous look,. Meanwhile, Case Keenum makes his first-ever playoff start. Make New Orleans a 10* play.

The set-up: The Jacksonville Jaguars made their first playoff appearance since 2007 last weekend vs. the Buffalo Bills, after winning the franchise's first division title since 1999 by winning the AFC South with a 10-6 record. That Jags were a huge surprise in 2017, as the team entered the season with a pathetic 22-74 (.229) record the previous six seasons. The Jags' 10-3 victory over the Bills was generally said to be "unwatchable" at times but so be it, the Jags will head to Pittsburgh's Heinz Field on Sunday with a chance to advance to the AFC championship game. The postseason is nothing new to the Steelers, as Pittsburgh is in the playoffs for the 8th time in Mike Tomlin's 11 years as the team's head coach. A highly controversial 27-24 home loss to the Patriots in Week 15, is the only thing keeping the 13-3 Steelers from being the AFC's no. 1 seed (that loss cost them the tie-breaker with the 13-3 Pats). However, Pittsburgh could just as easily blame its 30-9 Week 5 home loss to Jacksonville as the culprit for failing to earn the No. 1 seed.

Jacksonville: Blake Bortles was almost replaced as the team's starting QB in the preseason but the Jags really had no "Plan B." The former UCF star had a solid season, keeping his TOs to a minimum (21-13 ratio) and benefiting from the NFL's No. 1 ground game. The Jags averaged 141.4 YPG in the regular, led by rookie Leonard Fournette (1,040 yards and 9 TDs but just 3.9 YPC). The Jacksonville offense kept putting its defense in trouble last season but that all changed in 2017. The Jags' D is the reason this team went 10-4 to clinch its playoff berth. The Jags did lose their final two games but the defense still ended the regular season second in both scoring D (16.8 PPG) and total D (286.1 YPG). The defense showed up last week vs. Buffalo, holding the Bills to 263 yards and only a mere FG. However, the Jags' offense was awful, Leonard Fournette had just 57 rushing yards on 21 carries in his playoff debut and Blake Bortle's passing numbers were just plain 'ugly!' He was 12 of 23 for a pathetic 87 yards (76.8 QB rating, although he did pass for the game's lone TD (did not throw a pick) and added a game-high 88 yards rushing. Still, one wonders how the Jags will fare against Pittsburgh's defense?

Pittsburgh. The 2017 Steelers' D is not the dominant "Steel Curtain" of years past but it's a quality stop-unit allowing 19.2 PPG (7th) on 306.9 YPG (5th), while leading the NFL with 56 sacks. After that 30-9 loss to the Jags, Pittsburgh won 10 of its last 11 games down the stretch to finish 13-3. Ben Roethlisberger completed 64.2% for 4,251 yards with 28 TDs and 14 interceptions. RB Le’Veon Bell led the team with 1,291 rushing yards (9 TDs) plus caught 85 balls for two TDs. WR Antonio Brown led Pittsburgh’s receiving corps with 101 catches for 1,533 yards and 9 TDs, despite sitting out Weeks 16 & 17. JuJu Smith-Schuster chipped in 917 receiving yards and seven TDs in his 58 catches. He had 15 receptions and two TDs in the final two weeks with Brown sidelined.

The pick: Roethlisberger wondered aloud "if he still had it" when meeting with reporters after that 30-9 Week 5 loss to the Jags. He had thrown five interceptions in that contest, two of which were returned for TDs by the Jags. However, Big Ben would throw 22 TDs and just seven INTs over his final 10- games, then sat out Week 17. He's still "got it" plus owns arguably the NFL's best all-around RB in Bell and its best WR in Brown. That's not to mention an always excellent defense to "have his back." Pittsburgh owns the most playoff victories in league-history at 36, while Jacksonville's 10-3 win over Buffalo was just the team's second playoff win in the new millennium. It's Big Ben vs. Blake Bortles! You make the call? Then again, let me. Make Pittsburgh an 8* play.

The set-up: Surely no one reading this would be unaware that the Atlanta Falcons led the New Patriots 28-3 in last year's Super Bowl before a monumental collapse led to the Patriots winning 34-28 in OT. No one knew quite what to expect from the Falcons in 2017 but it was hardly a surprise that the team struggled throughout the entire regular season. In fact, the Falcons were forced into a "must win" situation in Week 17 of this year in order to qualify for the NFC's final playoff berth as the No. 6 seed. However, Falcons began their quest to return to the Super Bowl as the NFC's representative last Saturday with a wire-to-wire 26-13 win over the Rams in Los Angeles. The Philadelphia Eagles boasted the NFL's top mark throughout much of the season and tied a franchise record with 13 wins but as everyone knows, the team was 11-2 when Carson Wentz was lost for the season due to injury. Nick Foles finished off that game against the Giants in style but looked very 'shaky' as the Eagles went 1-1 with him as as a starter (more in a bit). So, the Eagles find themselves as the first No. 1 seed to enter its opening playoff game as an underdog in league history.

Atlanta: QB Matt Ryan (personal reasons) and WR Julio Jones (ankle, ribs) both missed practice Tuesday but are expected to start on Saturday. Ryan was 21 of 30 for 218 yards and a touchdown in the 13-point win over the Rams., giving him his first road playoff win in three starts. Jones reeled in nine receptions for 94 yards and a TD grab last week. The Falcons also possess a potent RB tandem in Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman (combined for 1,493 rushing yards and 12 TDs this season). PK Matt Bryant nailed four FGs against the Rams and the Atlanta defense held the Rams (the league's highest-scoring team in the regular season at 29.9 PPG, to just one TD and 13 points. Speaking of that Atlanta defense, it has stepped up its game by allowing just 16.3 PPG over its last six games.

Philadelphia" Without Wentz, it's difficult to note Philly's offensive numbers during the regular season. Foles was outstanding in relief of Wentz vs. the Giants (24 of 38 with four TD passes) but was a combined 23 of 49 for 202 yards (one TD / two INTs) in Weeks 16 & 17. He hasn't given Philly's fickle fans much to cheer by leading the Eagles to just 16 points in their last nine quarters. Philly does have a solid running game though, averaging 132.3 YPG on the ground (3rd-best). The Philly defense has been terrific all season and comes in ranked 4th in scoring (18.4 PPG) and total D (306.5 YPG). Philly's No. 1 rush D (79.2 YPG) will be a real test for Atlanta's running game.

The pick: The Eagles can silence the critics on Saturday when they host the sixth-seeded Atlanta Falcons at Lincoln Financial Field, where they went 7-1 SU As alluded to above, the Eagles are the first top seed to be a home dog in the Division Round since the seeding system was introduced in 1975. However, last season's NFL MVP, Matt Ryan told reporters after the win over the Rams, "We're not here just to get here. We want to make noise while we're here." Ryan had just recorded his fifth consecutive playoff game with at least a 100.0 passer rating in Atlanta's 26-13 win over the Los Angeles Rams Motivation abounds on both sides and while Foles is no Ryan, he did have that 'magical' 2013 season for Philly back in 2013 when he threw 27 TDs and just two INTs (119.2 QB rating) in 13 games. Make the Over a 10* play.

The set-up: The Mercedes-Benz Superdome will be the site of the last of four NFL wild card games this weekend. The Carolina Panthers and the New Orleans Saints both finished 11-5 in 2017 but New Orleans won both regular season meetings, earning the Saints home field advantage for this contest. After opening 0-2, the Saints won 34-13 at Carolina in Week 3, jump-starting an eight game winning streak. The Panthers were just 4-3 after seven games but won seven of their final nine but the team's 31-21 Week 13 loss at New Orleans plus a 22-10 Week 17 loss in Atlanta, cost Carolina a chance to host this wild card contest. Conventional wisdom states that "it's hard to beat the same team three times in one season." However, teams that swept the regular-season series also won the playoff rematch 13 out of 20 times since 1970. So here we are.

Carolina: Cam Newton threw for for just 180 yards with one TD and three interceptions on 14-of-34 passing in the Week 17 loss in Atlanta. Newton clearly needs to bring his "A game" to this contest as he's basically a one-man show. He's far off his MVP numbers of 2015 (59.1% with a 22-16 ratio and an 80.7 QB rating) but Newton 's 754 rushing yards (5.4 YPC and six TDs) is a team high and his effectiveness is the main reason why Carolina ranks 4th in rushing on the season at 131.4 YPG. Stewart is the leading RB with 680 yards but he averages only 3.4 YPG. Rookie McCaffrey has added 435 yards (3 TDs) but his biggest contribution is his team-leading 80 catches (5 TDs). Devin Funchess is the team's best (only?) WR, with 63 catches and a team high 8 TD grabs. Carolina's D is allowing 20.4 PPG (11th) on 317.1 YPG (7th).

New Orleans: Discussions surrounding the Saints always start (and mostly end) with Drew Brees. However, things have changed in 2017. It's not that Brees has not been terrific but rather that the Saints' ground game and much-maligned defense, have made major improvements. The seemingly ageless Brees will turn 39 on Jan. 15 and had another 4,000-plus passing season (4,334 yards) and completed 72.0% of his passes. His TDs were down (23) but he threw just eight INTs and his QB rating checks in at 103.9. Anyone hear lately how the Saints made a mistake in sending A.P. to the Cards? Ingram ran for 1,234 yards (4.9 YPC & 12 TDs), while rookie RN Kamara ran for 728 yards (6.1 YPC & 8 TDs) plus caught 81 passes for another five TDs. Then there is the New Orleans' D, which after allowing 29.8 and 28.4 PPG the last two seasons, allowed just 20.4 PPG (10th) in 2017.

The pick: The Panthers haven't been able to slow the Saints in either of the two regular season meetings (allowed 34 and 31 points) and why should the Saints struggle to score here? After all, the Saints are 7-1 SU at home, averaging 31.0 PPG. That said, I expect Newton to be effective in this, his first postseason game since he and his team was dominated by the Broncos' D in the Super Bowl after the 2015 season. I'll stay away from the side but will make the Over an 8* play.

The set-up: The 9-7 Buffalo Bills visit the Jacksonville Jaguars in an AFC Wild Card matchup in Sunday's first game. I doubt there is anyone not aware that the Bills will be making their first postseason appearance since 1999, ending the longest playoff drought in the NFL, as well as in all four major sports. The last time the Bills made the playoffs the team became victim of "The Music City Miracle." Google this if you need a refresher. Buffalo ended its playoff drought by benefiting from a minor miracle of its own, when the Bengals beat the Ravens by connecting on a 49-yard TD pass with 44 seconds remaining, on a 4th-and-12 play last Sunday! The 10-6 Jacksonville Jaguars will be making their first playoff appearance since 2007, with their first AFC South championship and speaking of 1999, the team's first division title since that 1999 season. The Jags' playoff drought was just nine seasons but entered this season without a single winning season in the span. In fact, the Jags opened the 2017 season with a pathetic 22-74 (.229) record the previous six seasons.

Buffalo: It's safe to say the Bills are hardly "all in" on QB Tyrod Taylor (see the Nathan Petrerman 'experiment') but h'es completing 62.6% with 14 TDs and just four INTs (in 420 attempts). He can extend plays with his mobility and has run for 427 yards (5.1 YPC) but Buffalo ranks 31st in passing yards at 176.6 per game. LeSean McCoy rushed for 1,138 yards and a team-high six rushing touchdowns plus was also the team's leading pass-catcher with 59 receptions. Buffalo ranks sixth in rushing yards at 126.14 YPG but that's down almost 40 YPG from 2016, when the team led the NFL with 164.4 YPG on the ground. Buffalo's D is no better than average, allowing 22.4 PPG (18th).

Jacksonville: Blake Bortles was almost replaced as the team's starting QB in the preseason but the Jags really had no "Plan B." The former UCF star had a solid season, keeping his TOs to a minimum (21-13 ratio) and benefiting from the NFL's No. 1 ground game. The Jags average 141.4 YPG, led by rookie Leonard Fournette (1,040 yards and 9 TDs but just 3.9 YPC). Marqise Lee led the team with 56 catches but he has an ankle issue and no other player has as many as 45 catches. The Jacksonville offense kept putting its defense in trouble last season but that all changed ion 2017. The Jags' D is the reason this team went 10-4 to clinch its playoff berth. The Jags did lose their final two games but the defense still ended the regular season second in both scoring D (16.8 PPG) and total D (286.1 YPG).

The pick: The Jacksonville Pass D has been terrific, holding opposing QBs to 56.8% completions and a QB rating of just 68.5 (No. 1 in both categories). The Jags' 55 sacks rank second to only Pittsburgh's 56. Taylor will surely be tested but his counterpart, the Jags' Bortles, is coming off back-to-back games (both losses) in which he threw five INTs, after throwing just eight in the team's 10-4 start. Then there is RB Leonard Fournette, who has only 300 yards rushing on 3.2 YPC over his last four games. Getting back to Buffalo QB Taylor, I may like him more than Buffalo's management does. Expect him to be able improvise and extend plays vs. the Jacksonville pass rushers. Taylor is playing the best football of his career right now, having completed 57 of 94 for 709 yards & two TD passes and no interceptions over the last three games. As for the Buffalo D, it has been strong the last six weeks, except in two games against the Pats and Tom Brady. In the four games against teams NOT led by Brady, Buffalo has allowed just 12.3 PPG. Anyone think Bortles resembles Brady in any way shape or form. Make Buffalo a 10* play.

The set-up: Not many are unaware that the Atlanta Falcons led the New Patriots 28-3 in last year's Super Bowl before a monumental collapse led to the Patriots winning 34-28 in OT. No one knew quite what to expect from the Falcons in 2017 but it was hardly surprise that the team struggled throughout the entire regular season.. In fact, the Falcons were forced into a "must win" situation in Week 17 of this year in order to qualify for the NFC's final playoff berth as the No. 6 seed. The 10-6 Falcons will begin their quest to return to the Super Bowl as the NFC's representative this Saturday night in Los Angeles, when they face the 11-5 Rams, who won the NFC West. The Rams have been one of NFL 2017's biggest surprises, going from 4-12 in 2016 to 11-5 in 2017. The Rams are in the playoffs for the first time since 2004, after winning their first NFC West crown since 2003. Atlanta: The Falcons reached the playoffs in the last week of the season with a 22-10 home win over Carolina (actually, Atlanta didn't actually need to win, as Seattle lost at home to Arizona). Matt Ryan threw for 317 yards and a TD on 28 of 45 passing but for the year, came nowhere his MVP numbers of 2016. Ryan threw for 4,095 yards with 20 TDs and 12 INTs, compiling a 91.4 QB rating this season. However, he just missed throwing for 5,000 yards in 2016 (4,944), while throwing 38 TDs against just seven INTs (117.1 QB rating). Freeman and Coleman were once again a very good RB tandem plus Julio Jones (88 catches on 16.4 YPC but just three TDs) remains among the very best WRs in the NFL but after leading the NFL with 33.8 PPG in 2016, the Falcons are a middle-of-the-pack 15th (in a 32-team league) in scoring here in 2017 at 22.1 PPG. Defensively, the Falcons have held their own, allowing 19.7 PPG (8th) on 318.4 YPG (9th). LA Rams: First-year head coach Sean McVay has transformed the Rams, as after LA averaged NFL lows in points (14.0 PPG) and total offense (262.7 YPG) in 2016, this year's team was the NFL's highest scoring team at 29.9 PPG. The Rams are the second team in history to lead the league in scoring, after ranking last the previous season. Jared Goff became an accomplished QB over night (3,804 yards, 28 touchdowns and 7 interceptions for a QB rating of 100.5) and RB Todd Gurley could possibly be the 2017 MVP. He has 1,305 yards rushing and 13 rushing TD, sin addition to finishing 2nd on the team in receiving yards with 788 yards with a team-high 64 receptions (plus six more TDs). WR Cooper Kupp led the team with 869 receiving yards on 62 catches (5 TDs), while Robert Woods added 781 yards and 5 TDs on 56 catches. Sammy Watkins caught just 39 passes but leads the team with eight TDs. The offense got most of the glory but LA's defense has allowed 20.6 PPG to rank a respectable 12th. The pick: It’s been a while since the Rams played a postseason game at the venerable Coliseum. The answer to that trivia question would be, the 1978 NFC title games in a 28-0 loss to the Dallas Cowboys and Roger Staubach. Are the 31-year-old MvVay and his second-year QB (Goff) really up to this kind of pressure? Let's not forget that Atlanta's entire season has been about redemption after blowing that 28-3 Super Bowl lead and the Falcons come in having won six of their last eight, with the only two losses coming against division winners Minnesota and New Orleans. 'Matty Ice" is no MVP in 2017 but he's thrown 12 TD passes and just one interception over his last four playoff games. Take the points and make the Falcons an 10* play.

The set-up: The 9-7 Tennessee Titans are in the postseason for the first time since 2008, earning a wild card bid as the AFC's No. 5 seed. The Titans will head to Kansas City's Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday for a game against the 10-6 KC Chiefs, who won the AFC West after a season of streaks (more in a bit). Tennessee has not won a playoff game since 2003 but it's also worth noting that the Chiefs haven't won a home playoff game since Jan. 8, 1994, having lost five straight postseason home contests (OUCH!).

Tennessee: The Titans' offense has shown flashes of brilliance but has been inconsistent. QB Marcus Mariota leads a passing offense that ranks just 23rd in the NFL (199.4 YPG), throwing more interceptions (15) than TD passes (13). His QB rating is awful, at 79.3. Tennessee relies on its running game but after Murray (1,287 yards on 4.4 YPC) led the way in 2016, with the team ranking ranking third with 136.7 YPG (4.6 YPC) on the ground in 2016, things have not gone as well in 2017. Murray has just 659 yards (3.6 YPC!) and while fellow RB Henry (744 yards) has had his moments, the Titans rank just 15th in rushing this season (114.6 YPG), with the team's average falling from 4.6 YPC to 4.1 (that's big!). The Titans are scoring a modest 20.9 PPG (19th) and the defense ranks 17th, allowing 22,2 PPG.

Kansas City: The Chiefs opened the 2017 season by beating the Patriots up in New England in the NFL's Thursday night season opener. Led by veteran QB Alex Smith and rookie RB Kareem Hunt, the Chiefs opened 5-0 SU & ATS. The team then "hit a wall," going 1-6 SU & ATS, before going 4-0 SU &ATS down the stretch. Smith's had a career-season, completing 67.5% for 4,042 yards with 26 TDs and just five INTs (104.7 QB rating). Hunt had a mid-season slump but ran for a league-high 1,327 yards (4.9 YPC with 8 TDs) and caught 53 passes with three more TDs. TE Kelce led the team with 83 catches and 8 TDs, while WR Hill added 75 catches and 7 TDs. Defensively, the Chiefs are allowing 365.1 YPG (28th) but some better news is that they rank higher in the most important defensive category, points allowed (21.2 PPG ranks 15th).

The pick: KC has the better offensive weapons and the defense played much better down the stretch, allowing just 13.7 PPG in the first three of the team's four-game season-ending winning streak (allowed 24 points n a meaningless Week 17 win). However, I can't ignore the fact that the Chiefs have lost FIVE consecutive home playoff games and here, they have a significant pointspread to cover (note: it seems to be rising by the day!). Four of the Titans' seven losses came by six points or less and over Tennessee's last 10 games, the Titans' allowed more than 20 points just three times. Take the big points and make Tennessee an 8* play.

The set-up: AFC East rivals the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins meet Sunday in Week 17 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. The 6-9 Dolphins will finish with a non-winning season for the eighth time in the last nine seasons. It's particularly disappointing because the Dolphins lone winning season in that span was last year's 10-6 mark. Miami limps in with losses in seven of its last nine games and the team will miss the playoffs for the 14th time in the last 16 seasons. As for the 8-7 Bills, they find themselves in unfamiliar territory as they remain in contention for a playoff berth entering the final week of the regular season. However, in order for that to happen, the Bills would not only have to win in Miami, they need help. The most direct way to earn a playoff spot, which would end a 17-year drought, would be a Baltimore home loss to Cincinnati. They other path would require Tennessee and the LA Chargers to lose to Jacksonville and Oakland, respectively. "It's exciting, I've got to believe, for this city," Bills head coach Sean McDermott said. "(This organization is) in a position that we haven't been in, this city hasn't been in, for a number of years."

Buffalo:The Bills rank dead last in passing at 175.9 YPG and the running game has fallen off from last year as well, averaging 126.1 YPG (6th), which is down from 164.4 YPG in 2016, which ranked first in the entire NFL. The QB situation is strange, as the team is not sold on Tyrod Taylor but there is no current "Plan B." Taylor completes 62.1% but as noted, the team ranks last in passing yards. He's thrown just 13 TDs but also has just four INTs in 393 attempts. Also, he can make plays with his feet (392 rushing yards on 5.0 YPC) and is also capable of extending plays with his mobility. The defense has not had its best season, allowing 22.9 PPG (18th) on 355.1 YPG (25th).

Miami" Once upon a time, the Dolphins were 4-2 but a 40-0 Thursday night loss at Baltimore sent the team's season on a downward spiral from which it never recovered. Jay Cutler was never the answer at QB and in Miami's first game against the Bills in Buffalo, he was done in by three interceptions. Miami traded away its best (only?) RB before the trade deadline in Ajayi and enters this game 28th with 86.3 YPG on the ground. The Dolphins offense scores a modest 17.7 PPG, which ranks 27th. The defense is Buffalo-like, allowing 24.7 PPG (28th) on 337.3 YPG (18th).

The pick: As noted above, there a few scenarios that could qualify Buffalo for its first playoff berth since 1999 and while none are "all that likely," ALL scenarios involve Buffalo winning here. Miami has 14 players on injured reserve, including six projected Opening Day starters. Two key players listed as questionable for Sunday are running back Damien Williams and rookie CB Cordrea Tankersley. With only 1 TD pass the last two weeks, the Jay Cutler era is ending quietly for the Dolphins and Adam Gase might be tempted to go with Matt Moore, if his foot has healed. The problem there is, he also stinks! The Dolphins are minus-13 in turnover differential, while their 28 turnovers are tied for second most in the league. Throw in that Miami is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 December games and why not take the Bills? Make Buffalo an 8* play.

The set-up: The 9-6 Atlanta Falcons may never get over having a 28-3 lead in last year's Super Bowl, before losing in OT. However, the team can take a "first step" towards doing just that by winning here at home in its showdown with NFC South rival Carolina. It's hardly been smooth sailing for the Falcons this season but the scenario is quite simple, beat the Panthers and no matter what happens in Seattle, the Falcons will advance to the playoffs as the NFC's No. 6 seed. The 11-4 Panthers have rebounded nicely from last season 6-10 'disaster,' but with a win here and a loss by the Saints (home to the Bucs), Carolina would win the NFC South. Even better, if the Rams lose on Sunday too, the Panthers would wind up with the NFC's No. 2 seed and a first-round bye! Carolina: Cam Newton didn't match his MVP numbers of 2015 but without much offensive help, he's led the Panthers back into the postseason. Newton has 3,122 passing yards with 21 TDs and 13 INTs. He's also the team's leading rusher with 695 yards (5.4 YPC) and six TDs. Stewart has 680 yards rushing but averages just 3.4 YPC. Rookie McCaffrey added 421 yards (2 TDs) but also leads the team with 75 receptions (5 TDs). Carolina ranks 11th with 23.5 PPG and its defense has been very good, allowing just 313.5 YPG (7th) and 20.3 PPG (12th). Atlanta: Despite all the teams ups and downs this season, the Falcons could have captured the NFC South by beating the Saints last Sunday in New Orleans and then beating the Panthers here in Atlanta in Week 17. However, Atlanta was knocked out of contention for the division title with a 23-13 loss at New Orleans last week.That means Atlanta must beat the Panthers here, as they can hardly expect Seattle to lose at home vs. the Cardinals. Matt Ryan has a modest 19 TD passes (with 12 INTs), giving him a QB rating of 91.4. That's quite a drop-off from his MVP numbers of 2016, when he had 38 TDs (17 INTs) and a 117.1 QB rating. Atlanta was the NFL's highest scoring team last season (33.8 PPG) but enters Week 17 averaging just 22.1 PPG (15th). The Atlanta defense has held its own, ranking 11th in allowing 20.3 PPG on 323.1 YPG (10th). The pick: No one is quite sure how Carolina will play this one, as if the Saints win at Tampa Bay, the Panthers can't do much about their playoff seed. However, both of these games start at 4:25 ET. I'm betting the Panthers go "all out" and that's exactly what I expect from the Falcons, as well. Make the Over an 8* play.

The set-up: Arizona's 13-3 regular season and appearance in the NFC championship game seems a lot further away than 2015. The Cardinals beat the Giants 23-0 last Sunday and end their season with a Week 17 viist to CenturyLink Field in Seattle with a chance to finish the year at .500, after climbing to 7-8 with that victory over the NY Giants. Seattle won 21-12 last Sunday in Dallas, despite accumulating just 136 yards of total offense. The victory gave Seattle a 9-6 record but a win here does not ensure a playoff berth. The only way Seattle can make the 2017 playoff field, extending its streak of consecutive playoff appeaarnces to six (assuming the Seahawks win here), is if the Falcons lose to the Panthers in Atlanta (or of course, tie). is if

Arizona: The Cards are relying on Drew Stanton these days at QB and he completed 20 of 34 for 209 yards with two TDs but also two INTs in the 23-0 win over the Giants. A.P. made a big splash when he first arrived but has been on IR since late November. The Arizona rushing game ranks 30th, averaging just 84.7 YPG. Despite a revolving door of QBs due to injury (Palmer, Gabbert and Stanton), WR Larry Fitzgerald checks in with 101 catches and six TDs (he's a remarkable player). Fitzgerald signed a contract for next year but hasn't yet committed to playing despite another standout campaign. The 34-year-old is the fifth player in NFL history to record five straight 100-catch seasons and his first against the Seahawks - provided he doesn't get shut out - will stretch his streak to 211 games with a reception, which would tie Tony Gonzalez for the second-longest in league history. Athe Cards are also allowing 22.5 PPG (17th).

Seattle: The injury-plagued Seattle defense came through last Sunday in Dallas with three sacks, a forced fumble that they also recovered and a pair of INTs, including a 30-yard pick-six from Justin Coleman. QB Russell Wilson has carried this team all season with 3,762 passing yards, 32 TDs and just 11 INTs (94.7 QB rating). He's also the team's leading rusher with 550 yards (6.1 YPC) and three TDs. However, over the last two weeks, he's thrown for just 142 and 93 yards! Seattle's "Legion of Boom" defense has been plagued by injuries but still checks in 13th in both points allowed (20.4 per) and total defense (327.5 YPG).

The pick:Seattle has to win and then hope things turn out well for them in Atlanta but the team has to be concerned that the Cardinals are 3-1 in Seattle during Bruce Arians' tenure.Then again, isn't forewarned, forearmed? Make Seattle an 8* play.

The set-up: The Cleveland Browns will meet the Pittsburgh Steelers for this Week 17 game at Heinz Field. Can we actually call it an AFC North rivalry game? At one time it was and there is still likely no love lost between the two teams but with the Browns sitting at 0-15 an d the Steelers at 12-3 (need a win and a New England loss at home to the Jets to earn the AFC's No. 1 seed), the two teams operate in separate 'universes' in NFL 2017. The Browns are down to their last chance to get a win this season, after falling 20-3 at the Chicago Bears last Sunday, while the Steelers come in off clinching a first round bye with a 34-6 win over Houston on Christmas Day.

Cleveland: The Browns have lost five in a row to Pittsburgh, including a 21-18 setback at home in the season opener. Cleveland enters having been limited to 10 points or less in four of its last six games, as QB DeShone Kizer's rocky rookie season continues and will come to an end with this contest. Kizer is completing 53.6% for 171.1 YPG with 9 TDs and 21 INTs (QB rating of 57.9). Running back Isaiah Crowell rushed for a career-best 152 yards in the 2016 regular-season finale against Pittsburgh and has had a decent 2017 season, with 832 yards (4.4). Fellow RB Johnson has just 328 yards (4.3 YPC) but is the team's leading receiver with 68 catches. Speaking of receivers, WR Josh Gordon has been back on the field for the last four games and has 14 catches, while averaging 15.7 YPC. Still, the bottom line is that the Browns rank dead-last in scoring (14.0 PPG) and despite allowing a modest 326.8 YPG (12th), allow 25.5 PPG (30th). A league-high 39 giveaways, including a league-worst minus-28 TO margin, has a way of doing that!

Pittsburgh: Here's the rub. Pittsburgh's only chance at wresting the top overall seed from New England is to have the Patriots lose at home to the New York Jets. Tomlin said it will likely be an "11th-hour decision" as to how much playing time to give his starters but insisted there will be no "empathy" toward the plight of the Browns factoring into his thoughts. "More important than anything is we lay a foundation of our plan and get going in terms of things we need to do to play well. That's always been our mentality," Tomlin insisted. "Those are things (playing) we'll decide later in the week." WR Antonio Brown, who has 101 receptions and NFL-best 1,533 yards, has already been ruled out for the second straight game with a calf injury. Despite his absence, Pittsburgh rolled over Houston 34-6 last week as Ben Roethlisberger threw for 226 yards and two scores, including one to promising rookie JuJu Smith-Schuster, who has 32 of his 49 receptions over his past six games. RB Le'Veon Bell, the NFL's third-leading rusher with 1,291 yards, managed only 32 in the season opener and could be a candidate to sit out or see limited time. It's expected he will and that Big Ben will sit as well. Pittsburgh's defense ranks second in the league with 50 sacks. The defense ranks 4th in yards allowed (302.4 per) and unlike with the Browns, the Steelers allow just 18.9 PPG (5th).

The pick: The Steelers expect the Pats to beat the Jets (both games start at 1;00 ET) but who knows? Still, Tomlin is unlikely to take too many chances. Taht said, the Browns did play teh Steelers close in Week 1 and Pittsburgh has more that its fair share of 'close shaves' against poor team sin 2017. I was able to take 14 points with the Browns and even though that line is long gone, I'm recommending taking the Browns. Remember Crowell's success vs. them l in last season's finale and also note that Josh Gordon has 21 catches in his last two versus the Steelers. Make Cleveland a 10* play.

The set-up: Cowboys/Giants and Cowboys/Redskins may be more intense rivalries but Cowboys/Eagles has always been a traditionally heated rivalry in the NFC East, as well/ However, this Week 17 meeting between the two clubs will conclude the 2017 season on Sunday at Lincoln Financial Field as almost an afterthought. The 13-2 Eagles have already clinched home-field advantage throughout the postseason following their 19-10 victory over the Oakland Raiders on Christmas night. As for the 8-7 Cowboys, they were eliminated from playoff contention last Sunday after a disappointing 21-12 home loss to the Seattle Seahawks.

Dallas: The Cowboys just couldn't make the key plays against Seattle last Sunday. Dak Prescott threw for 182 yards and two interceptions, while Ezekiel Elliott rushed for 97 yards on 24 carries in his first game back from his six game suspension. It's frustrating to lose a game by nine points, when Dallas held Seattle to just 136 yards of total offense! Elliott's return from his suspension helped but in the end, turnovers hurt the Cowboys and ultimately ended their hope of a playoff berth. Dak Prescott was intercepted twice and the offense was unable to produce a touchdown. Prescott has tossed 13 interceptions this season against just four a season ago."It's really disappointing," tight end Jason Witten told reporters. "We had a chance and fought there at the end. It's not overly complicated. Opportunities in this league are fleeting. You have to take advantage of them when you can. We just weren't able to do that well enough."

Philadelphia:Nick Foles was brilliant taking over for an injured Wentz against the Giants (237 yards with 4 TDs and 0 INTs for 115.8 QB rating) but that was not the case last Monday night vs. the Raiders. He completed just 19 of 38 passes for 163 yards with one TD and one INT, giving him a QB rating of 59.4. The Eagles gained just 78 yards on the ground, way below the team's average of 136.2 YPG (2nd). In fact, Philly had just 216 yards of total offense (average 375.5 YPG on the season to rank 4th) and team's 19 points were well below the team's average of 30.5 PPG, the second-best total in the NFL. While Philly's offense struggled, the defense rose to the occasion. he Eagles had three INTs interceptions and three forced fumbles. All three were recovered, including a fumble return for a TD for Derek Barnett as time expired. All while holding Oakland to just 274 yards of total offense and a 3 for 13 mark on 3rd down in the win. Philly's defense heads into its final game allowing 19.3 PPG (6th) on 306.9 YPG (5th).

The pick: It's unclear how many snaps the Cowboys' starters will receive given that Sunday's game solely is about pride or for that matter, how the Eagles will handle things with the NFC's No. 1 seed already clinched. However, I'm siding with Dallas, which is playing for nothing but pride. "Zeke" is within 120 yards of joining Hall of Famer Tony Dorsett as the only RBs in Dallas history to begin their careers with consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. As for Dak, the 2016 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, his worst game of the season came in Philly's 37-9 blowout win over the Cowboys in Dallas, when he threw for 145 yards without a TD and three INTs, 'earning' a QB rating of 30.4. Make Dallas an 8* play.

The set-up: The second-half of Week 16's MNF doubleheader features the 6-8 Oakland Raiders visiting the 12-2 Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. The Raiders' slim postseason hopes were dashed following back-to-back losses to Kansas City and Dallas. "We're just going to play to win," coach Jack Del Rio said of his team's mindset. "We're going to do everything we can to get over this 'close but no cigar' finish we had." As for the Philadelphia Eagle, they are looking for their 13th victory of the season and to secure a top seed in the NFC. The Raiders will making their first appearance in Philadelphia since 2005

Oakland: The Raiders are coming off a tough 20-17 loss to the Dallas Cowboys last Sunday. QB Derek Carr was 21 of 38 for just 171 yards but with two TD passes to WR Michael Crabtree. Carr has completed 63.1 percent for 3,113 yards with 20 TDs and 10 INTs (88.4 QB rating). Crabtree has had seven receptions in back-to-back contests since serving a one-game suspension for his actions in the early going against Denver on Nov. 26. Amari Cooper (42 catches and five TDs in 12 games) was limited in Friday's practice with an ankle injury, leaving questions as to whether he'd take the field against the Eagles. Oakland ran for 122 yards, including 76 from running back Marshawn Lynch. Lynch has been a disappointment with 695 yards rushing, as Carr hasn't gotten much help from a ground game producing just 93.7 YPG (25th). The Raiders' offense has underachieved in 2017, scoring 20.1 PPG (22nd), while the defense is allowing 23.1 PPG (19th).

Philadelphia: Carson Wentz (33 TDs / 7 INTs / 101.9 QB rating) is out for the season with a torn anterior cruciate ligament suffered against the Rams in Week 14 but backup Nick Foles proved he is ready for the challenge that awaits the rest of the way. He started against the Giants last Sunday and finished 24 of 38 for 237 yards with four TD passes and no interceptions. The four scores, which went to four different receivers, were the most he tossed since he had seven against the Raiders during the 2013 season. "I just think his poise and his play-making," Philadelphia offensive coordinator Frank Reich said when asked what stood out about Foles. "Obviously, you could tell right away, he's been there before. Then he did what we needed him to do. He played good, sound football, but also be ready to make big plays. He provided that as well." Blount (717 yards on 4.5 YPC) and the addition of Jay Ajayi (356 yards on 6.4 YPC in his six games with Philly), give Philly the NFL's second-best running game, averaging 140.5 YPG. WR Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor have combined for 1,503 receiving yards and 17 TDs while TE Zach Ertz has 63 receptions (eight TDs). The Philadelphia Eagles average 31.3 PPG (2nd) and the defense is allowing 19.9 PPG (8th) on 309.2 PPG (6th).

The pick: Sure, a win and teh Eagles clinch the NFC's No. 1 seed plus Philly is 6-0 (5-1 ATS) at home in 2017, outscoring opponents 35.0-to-15.2 PPG. However, the Raiders should relish the role of playing spoiler plus have ave nothing to lose. Hard to imagine Foles playing as well as he did last Sunday, as I believe the Eagles are not quite he same team minus Wentz. Take the big points and make Oakland a 10* play!

The set-up: NBC's Week 16 Sunday Night Football features the 8-6 Seattle Seahawks visiting the 8-6 Dallas Cowboys in "Jerry's House." The playoff implications are massive for both teams. When Seattle beat the Eagles 24-10 back in Week 14, the 8-4 Seahawks were "right there" with the 9-3 Rams' for the NFC West crown and looked to have a decent chance of claiming a wild card playoff spot even if the division title didn't pan out. However, a tough 30-24 loss at Jacksonville was followed by a 42-7 humbling loss at home against the Rams. "It was just a couple of weeks ago that we played one of the best games we've ever played," Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said. "We've got to turn it and make sure that we get right and get back, ready to go to Dallas." Seattle would need to finish 2-0 and the Rams 0-2 for the Seahawks to win the NFC West and the team's path to a wild card spot is not any easier. As for Dallas, yes the Cowboys have won three straight and "Zeke" is back for this game but if Dallas loses here, a victory by Atlanta would seal the Cowboys' fate.

Seattle: The Seahawks' defense has allowed 72 points while losing its last two games, and the team's horrific showing against the Rams placed the team in a must-win situation and as noted above, winning only means something if other teams lose. QB Russell Wilson has been a "one-man" show on offense in 2017 but he was just 14 of 30 for for 142 yards (one TD / 0 INTs) against the Rams and one knows it's bad news when his 39 rushing yards represented a team high. Seattle's defense has been devastated by injuries for weeks now but the unit had held it together, before imploding these last two weeks.

Dallas The Cowboys not only missed Elliott for six game but LT Smith plus LB Lee missed key time while the Cowboys lost three in a row, scoring a total of just 22 points along the way. However, Smith and Lee have gotten back on the field, with Dallas winning three in a row over Washington (38-10), the NY Giants (30-10) and Oakland (20-17). Now, Elliott returns. Elliott had 26 or more carries in each of his final four games prior to the suspension and his presence should help second-year QB Dak Prescott (2,964 yards, 21 TDs), who has thrown 11 interceptions this season after being picked off just four times last year.

The pick: Yes, Elliott is back but LT Tyron Smith (knee) could sit out after being injured in last Sunday's victory over Oakland. Seattle's defense has been ravaged by injuries but the hope is that Pro Bowl middle linebacker Bobby Wagner (hamstring) and outside linebacker K.J. Wright (concussion) will be close to full strength. "The money" seems to be all on the Cowboys but I like Seattle in a desperate situation plus coming off that humiliating loss to the Rams (at home, no less). Dallas is just 3-4 ATS at home in 2017 and even last year's 13-3 division-winning team finished just 5-4 ATS at home after losing to the Packers in the postseason. Make Seattle a 10* play.

The set-up: The Jacksonville Jaguars have won three in a row and seven of their last eight. Last week's 45-7 rout of Houston moved the Jags to 10-4 and clinched the team's first playoff appearance since 2007. The Jags will visit Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara on Sunday afternoon to take on the suddenly rejuvenated San Francisco 49ers, who with Jimmy Garoppolo under center, have won three in a row to sit at 4-10. The Jaguars have made a remarkable turnaround from a three-win season to earn a postseason berth and can clinch their first division title since 1999 with a victory. Jacksonville owns a two-game lead over Tennessee and will secure the division crown with a win or tie against the 49ers, or if the Titans tie or lose to the Los Angeles Rams. The 49ers will be home for the postseason but optimism is running high in the Bay Area after wins over the Bears, Texans and Titans. Fans can see a light at the end of tunnel.

Jacksonville. QB Blake Bortles was almost run out of town during the preseason but the Jags didn't have a "Plan B," so Bortles was "their man." Bortles continued his torrid play last week, throwing for 326 yards and three touchdowns for a 143.8 passer rating. He is the now the first QB in franchise history to register a 100-plus passer rating, multiple TD passes and no interceptions in three consecutive games. He's completing 61.0% on the season with 19 TDs and just eight INTs. Rookie Leonard Fournette, who missed last week's game with a quadriceps injury, ranks third among NFL rookies with 1,136 scrimmage yards and is tied for second in TDs by a rookie with nine. He leads the team with 923 rushing yards and the Jags are the league's top rushing unit at 149.1 YPG. The there's that Jags' D which made great strides last year but gave up too many points because of all the Jags' TOs (see Bortles). However, Jacksonville comes into this game allowing a league-low 14.9 PPG on 284.1 YPG (3rd), while leading the NFL with 51 sacks.

San Francisco. From the start of the 2016 season through their 11th game of this season, the 49ers managed three wins. However, last Sunday’s 25-23 victory over the Titans means they’ve now won three games in the last three weeks and it isn’t hard to find the guy getting the credit for that change of fortunes. QB Jimmy Garoppolo has started all three of those wins and he’s leading an offense that’s gone over 400 yards in consecutive games for the first time since 2011. All three wins have come after the 49ers trailed in the second half and Sunday’s win saw Garoppolo complete three quick passes to move the team in position for Robbie Gould‘s field goal as time expired. “I knew he was a great player; we all did,” right guard Brandon Fusco said, via the San Francisco Chronicle. “We didn’t know he was this special.”

The pick: Garoppolo's been great but the Bears, Texans and Titans (his three 'victims') are NOT the Jags. Then again, the 49ers do catch the Jags off last week's rout of Houston, which clinched the franchise's first playoff berth since 2007. Can you say "let down?".Garoppolo’s getting most (all?) of the credit but let me note that 49er defense has yielded only 19.6 PPG over its last six games. Make the Under an 8* play.

The set-up: The Denver Broncos opened the 2017 season 3-1 but then lost eight consecutive games, failing to cover each and every one. However, the Broncos "stopped the bleeding" with a 23-0 home shut out of the Jets in Week 14 and then won 25-13 at the Indianapolis Colts in the Week 15 edition of Thursday night football. The Broncos look to build on those back-to-back wins when they visit from FedEx Field.ton on Christmas Eve Day for a meeting with the 6-8 Washington Redskins. The Redskins were eliminated from postseason contention despite a 20-15 win over Arizona in their last outing but
will try to find some positives in their final two games, like climbing back to .500.

Denver: Trevor Siemian passed for 67 yards and an interception before leaving due to injury (suffered a partially dislocated shoulder ) against Indianapolis and was placed on injured reserve..Brock Osweiler completed 12 of 17 passes for 194 yards and two TDs in the win. With Siemian on IR, head coach Vance Joseph will choose between Osweiler and Paxton Lynch as possible starters this week. Lynch has been considered the team's quarterback of the future but suffered an ankle injury at Oakland on Nov. 26 in his only start of the year and is trying to get back before the season ends. "My concern is making sure he's healthy enough to play at a high level," Joseph told the team's website. "He's a quarterback that can use his legs when he's in danger, so I want to make sure that he's right." C.J. Anderson rushed for 158 yards on 30 carries against theg Colts but he hasn't done much all season, coming in awith a 'quiet' 858 yards rushing. The Broncos are averaging a modest 113.1 YPG on the ground (14th). Denver still owns a playoff-caliber defense, as no team has allowed fewer yards per game (276.8) However, Denver's allowed 23.4 PPG (20th), which dosen't quite add up.

Washington: The Redskins beat the Cardinals 31-19 last Sunday with QB Kirk Cousins going 18 of 26 for 196 yards and two TDs. Cousins has put together another excellent season (66.1% for 3,636 yards with 24 TDs and 9 INTs / 98.9 QB rating) but his status for next season (free agent) is still up in the air. The Washintong D had four sacks, an interception and a recovered fumble while holding the Cardinals to 286 yards of total offense last week (also Arizona was just 4 of 19 on third down) but that kind of effort hasn't been typical. In fact, Washington ranks 29th (of 32 teams) in points allowed, giving up 25.6 per game.

The pick: A win here by Washington would mean the team would have recorded consecutive wins for just the second time this season. Still, the Denver QB situation is a mess (Osweiler or Lynch) and in what could be Cousns last home game for the Redskins, he just could be auditioning for the team in desperate need of a QB. Make Washington an 8* play.

The set-up: The Los Angeles Rams finished in 2016 at just , as the NFL's overall No. 1 pick, Jared Goff of Cal, hardly looked like a franchise QB. However, the NFL's youngest head coach I(Sean McVay) has worked wonders with Goff in his sophomore season, while DC Wade Phillips has worked his magic with LA's defense. The result is a 10-4 record and with a win here, the Rams can clinch the NFC West (would also clinch if Seattle loses at Dallas on Sunday night). The 8-6 Tennessee Titans are off back-to-back losses and enter as one of three 8-6 teams tied for the final two wild cards in the AFC. Tennessee still has an outside shot at winning the AFC South but a wild card berth is easily the easiest path to the postseason. The Titans currently own the No. 5 seed (due to tie-breakers) and can actually clinch a playoff spot this week with a win over the Rams plus losses by the Ravens and Bills..

LA Rams: Goff was 0-7 as a starter last season, completing 54.6% with five TDs and seven INTs (QB rating of 63.6). He's been a "new man" in 2017, entering the final two weeks of the season completing 62.4% for 3,503 yards with 24 TDs and just seven INTs (98.9 QB rating). RB Todd Gurley has developed into one of the NFL's elite RBs, rushing fo 1,187 yards (4.6 YPC) with 13 TDs plus adding 54 catches for 630 yards with four more TDs. After averaging an NFL-low in points (14.0 PPG) and total offense (262.7 YPG) in 2016, the Rams are averaging a league-best 31.3 PPG on 366.5 YPG (10th). Wade Phillips' D checks in allowing 19.4 PPG (5th), ranking second in sacks (47) to only the Jags' 51.

Tennessee: The Titans have hurt themselves with consecutive losses, 12-7 at Arizona in Week 14 and 25-23 at San Francisco last Sunday. After being held to just one score against the Cardinals, the Titans did get their offense going against the 49ers, as QB Marcus Mariota threw for 241 yards and two TD passes with no interceptions, after having been held under 200 yards passing in three consecutive games.
Mariota is not having a good season (12 TDs / 14 INTs and a QB rating of just 79.7), as Tennessee averages only 200.4 YPG through the air (25th). It also hasn't helped that a running game that was third-best in the NFL last season has dropped to 13th in 2017, averaging 115.7 YPG. The defense is no better than mediocre, allowing 22.8 PPG (18th) on 329.8 YPG (13th).

The pick: The Rams haven’t had any success ATS against the Titans over the year but it's a "New Day" this season in LA. Sure, the Titans are 5-1 SU at home but the Rams are 6-1 SU (5-2 ATS) on the road. Goff and Gurley (1,817 yards from scrimmage with 17 TDs) rate a big edge over Mariota plus Tenessee RB duo of Henry and Murray. On the defensive side of the ball, the Rams' D rates the edge as well. Speaking about his team's playoff chances, Titans head coach Mike Mularkey said of his players. "They know we have a great opportunity sitting right in front of us that is very reachable if we come in here the way we've come in here, with the mindset of putting in a good week's worth of preparation. We need to put 60 minutes of good football together, one game at a time." However, one could argue (and I will)
that the last time Tennessee did that was three months ago, when the Titans followed up a 37-16 rout at Jacksonville in Week 2 with a 33-27 decision over Seattle in Week 3. Since then, the Titans have played in starts and stops, becoming more and more prone to mistakes. Make the Rams an 8* play.

The pick: At first blush, this looks like the Vikings are a 'lock.' However, this is still a bitter rivalry and the Packers won't forget that the Vikings KO'd Rodgers AND Green Bay's season in the first meeting. Assuming Hundley starts, he did get better after his "emergency appearance" on Oct. 15, going 3-4 as a starter. He took a seat on the bench last week but had completed 69.1% in his previous three starts, throwing six TD passes and just one INT. Sure, the Packers won't be part of the postseason for the first time since 2008 but doesn't that make them a 'dangerous dog.' We know it's expected to be "Green Bay weather," as the predicted low for Saturday night is 1!! Home dog barks here. Make Green Bay  a 10* play.

The set-up: The Falcons edged the Saints 20-17 a week ago Thursday night, giving them four wins in their last five to reach 8-5. The Saints (10-4) and Panthers (10-4) both won on Sunday, so the Falcons can ill afford a loss in Week 15's MNF matchup at Raymond James Stadium with the 4-9 Tampa Bay Bucs. The Bucs come in off three straight losses (to the Falcons, Packers and Lions).and are likely just looking for this highly disappointing season to come to an end. These teams met in Week 12 at Atlanta with the Falcons winning 34-20. Matt Ryan threw for 317 yards but had just one TD pass (zero INTs). WR Julio Jones had 253 receiving yards and caught a TD pas from Ryan and WR Sanu. Atlanta's running game rolled up 148 yards (5.3 YPC) with two rushing TDs. Tampa's Winston was out with an injury in that contest, with Fitzpatrick throwing for 283 yards but no scores.

Atlanta: Julio Jones was having a relatively quiet season by his lofty standards until torching Tampa Bay for 12 catches for 253 yards and a pair of TDs in that Week 12 meeting. It's also good news that Devonta Freeman has rushed for 165 yards in two games since returning from a concussion and could be in line for a heavy workload with backup Tevin Coleman in the concussion protocol. Atlanta's running game is solid, averaging 116.8 YPG (12th) but Ryan is way off his 2016 MVP numbers. The Falcons led the NFL by averaging 33.8 PPG last season but head into this Week 15 game averaging only 22.6 PPG (15th). The defense has played well though, allowing 20.1 PPG (9th) on 319.8 YPG (7th).

Tampa Bay: Winston's been back for the last two games (555 passing yards with 4 TDs and 2 INTs) but the Bucs have lost both. Tampa Bay's running game has struggled all season (91.5 YPG ranks 22nd) and is surely a good part of the reason the Bucs are averaging only 20.3 PPG (22nd). Winston enjoyed plenty of success last season against Atlanta, throwing for 542 yards with seven TDs against one interception. but one wonders how much 'fight' there still is in Tampa Bay. The defense is allowing 389.3 YPG (31st) and 24.0 PPG (23rd).

The pick: Atlanta entered the week one game behind the New Orleans Saints and the Carolina Panthers but both won, so a win is a must. The good news for the Falcons is that they still have to play the Saints and Panthers, giving them a chance to claim the division title by winning their final three games. “Focusing on the next team could be a little bit distracting,” Falcons linebacker De’Vondre Campbell said. “We have to focus on (Tampa Bay) because every game at this point is a must-win.” It's also good news that Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last five Monday games, while the Bucs are 13-28-1 ATS in their last 42 games in December, as well as 23-49-1 ATS in their last 73 home games. Raymond James is not exactly a tough place for visiting teams to play! After pulling out recent must-win games vs. the Seahawks and Saints, I doubt the Falcons (with the Saints and Panthers looming) will 'stub their toes' against that sad-sack Bucs. Make the Falcons a 10* play.

The set-up: NBC's Sunday Night Football edition in Week 15 features the 7-6 Dallas Cowboys visiting the 6-7 Oakland Raiders. The Cowboys have rebounded from three straight loses to beat the Redskins and Giants in their last two, keeping the team's slim wild card hopes alive. The Raiders lost their Week 14 game at KC and at 6-7, sit one game back of the Chargers and Chiefs in the AFC West. Those two play Saturday night, so the Raiders can stay one game behind the winner of that contest and into a tie with the loser. Clearly, the loser of this game will be all but eliminated from postseason consideration.

Dallas: The Cowboys had scored a combined 22 points in losing three in a row, following the six-game suspension to RB Ezekiel Elliott. However, Dallas has scored 38 and 30 points in its back-to-back wins, with QB Dak Prescott breaking out for a career-high 332 yards against the Giants, along with three touchdown passes. RB Alfred Morris ran for 127 yards in the win over the 'Skins and RB Rod Smith had 160 yards from scrimmage with both a rushing and receiving touchdown vs. the Giants (47 rush yards / 113 receiving yards). That said, Dallas can't wait for Elliott to return, after this game.

Oakland: The Raiders' offense pretty much came up empty at KC last Sunday, with QB Derek Carr passing for a modest 211 yards (one TD and two INTs) and Marshawn Lynch gaining only 61 yards on the ground. Carr has 2,942 yards on the season with 18 TDs and 10 INTs (QB rating of 88.8), while Lynch has a disappointing 619 yards rushing on 4.2 YPC with seven TDs. The Raiders rank 15th in passing yards and only 26th in rushing, at 91.5 YPG. That all adds up to just 20.3 PPG, which ranks 21st.

The pick: "I think the two of us probably expected to have a few more wins at this point in the year," Raiders head coach Jack Del Rio said of his team and the Cowboys. "We are where we are and we’re looking forward to playing.” The winning team will have a daunting challenge ahead of them. Dallas has the Seahawks and Eagles remaining on its schedule, while Oakland still has to play the Eagles and Chargers. Not interested in "picking a winner" but considering Prescott has a 114.4 QB rating with eight TDs and zero interceptions in his last five road games and Carr has 21 TD passes versus just five interceptions in his last 10 home games, an 8* on the Over makes sense.

The set-up: The Tennessee Titans won six of seven games to join Jacksonville for a first-place in the AFC South with the Jaguars. However, three times in that span, Tennessee wiped out double-figure deficits and made key plays in the fourth quarter to win. That run of success (and good fortune) finally came to an end last week in Arizona, but with a twist. This time, the Titans squandered a 7-0 halftime lead and lost 12-7, dropping a game behind the Jacksonville Jaguars in the division race.The 8-5 Titans travel to Santa Clara (Levi's Stadium) this Sunday to take on the San Francisco 49ers, who may be just 3-10 but come in on a two-game winning streak.

Tennessee: The defense had eight sacks against Arizona and held the Cardinals to just 261 yards and 12 points (four FGs) but Tennessee's offense was awful. The Titans accumulated only 204 yards, as Marcus Mariota completed 16 of 31 for only 159 yards without a TD pass and one INT. The running game had only 65 yards on 22 attempts. The Titans rank 27th in passing (197.5 YPG) with Mariota throwing only 10 TD passes against 14 INTs (76.9 QB rating). The ground game was third-best in the NFL last year (136.7 YPG) but it's down to 117.7 YPG in 2017, ranking 10th. The defense ranks 9th in yards allowed (323.3 YPG) but in the more important category of points allowed, Tennessee is allowing 22.6 PPG (18th).

San Francisco: Have the 49ers found their answer at QB? C.J. Beathard got hurt at the end of the 49ers' Week 12 loss at Seattle, as San Francisco fell to 1-10. That opened the door for Jimmy Garoppolo's long-anticipated 'test drive.' He's led San Francisco to back-to-back wins, 15-14 at Chicago and 26-16 Houston. He threw for 334 yards, a touchdown and an interception on 20 of 33 passing against Houston and enters this contest completing 66.7 percent for 645 yards with two TDs and two INTs (92.6 QB rating). RB Carlos Hyde has 771 yards but the etam averaghes a modest 100.8 YPG (22nd).

The pick: I can see why some are leaning to San Francisco. The 49ers may nave been 1-10 but five of those losses had come by three points or less. Garoppolo is seen as a 'savior' and the fact that he has now won all four of his career starts, including his first two for San Francisco, makes San Fran a 'sexy' pick. That said, it's hard to see a 3-10 team being favored over a team fighting for a division title or wild card spot. The 49ers haven't won three in a row since the 2014 season and I say it won't happen here, either. Beating the sad-sack Bears and the Watson-less Texans is one thing, beating a playoff-contending team is another. Make Tennessee a 10* play.

The set-up: The Minnesota Vikings finally proved human last Sunday, as their eight-game winning streak came to an end in a 31-24 loss at the Carolina Panthers. Minnesota returns home off a three-game road trip and will be "dropping down in class" to face the 5-8 Cincinnati Bengals. Minnesota can clinch the NFC North Division title with a win, while Cincinnati will miss the playoffs for the second straight season, after making five straight (and six of seven) appearances.

Cincinnati: The Bengals come in off back-to-back losses, including an 'ugly' 33-7 defeat at the hands of the Chicago Bears in their last outing. Andy Dalton completed just 14 of 29 while throwing for only 141 yards with one TD and one INT. AJ McCarron threw for 47 yards in relief of Dalton. The Cincy running game has been a problem all season (79.4 RPG ranks 31st) but the Bengals could get back the services of rookie RB Joe Mixon (concussion). Mixon leads the team with 518 YR but averages only 3.3 YPC. Cincinnati averages only 197.8 YPG through the air, leaving them dead-last in total offense at 277.2 YPG and not much better in scoring, at 28th with 17.4 PPG. The defense has hung in there, considering, allowing a modest 20.8 PPG (13th).

Minnesota: Case Keenum has been a huge surprise at QB and enters 9-3 as a starter. However, he did show some vulnerability last week, committing three turnovers (two INTs / one fumble) in the 31-24 setback at Carolina. The Vikings only ran for 100 yards vs. Carolina but overall, RBs Murray (586 YR / 5 TDs) and McKinnon (460 YR / 3 TDs) have done a nice job since the loss of star rookie RB Cook. The Vikings come in averaging 121.8 YPG on the ground, which ranks 8th. Despite allowing 31 points at Carolina last Sunday, Minnesota's defense ranks third in points allowed on the season (18.1 per), as well as also ranking third in total defense at 293.4 YPG.

The pick: The Vikings are fighting for home field advantage in the NFC and can ill afford a slip here but this is a lot of points and the Bengals are 4-2 ATS on the road in 2017. Was Keenum's TO problem last week a sign of things to come? Also note that while Dalton played poorly last Sunday, he had thrown 11 TDs without an interception in his previous six games! Take those points and make Cincy an 8* play.

The set-up: This Week 15 matchup is between two playoff also-rans. It's true that the 6-7 Cardinals, who have two of their last three, have microscopic playoff chances but but they are 11th in the NFC, two games out of the second wild-card spot with only three games remaining. As for Washington, the Redskins have dropped four of their last five to fall to 5-8 and now realize even attaining a .500 record would take a three-game sweep of the team's final games. The Redskins' lone victory in that stretch came at home, a 20-10 triumph over the New York Giants (Week 12). However, Washington has allowed at least 30 points in each of its four defeats in that same span.

Arizona: The Cards enter off a 12-7 victory over the Tennessee Titans and hope to build off that excellent defensive effort. The Cardinals had three 3 sacks and a pair of interceptions, while holding the Titans to just 204 yards of total offense and just 26 minutes of possession in the win. However, while Arizona ranks 8th in total defense (320.6 YPG), it is allowing 24.4 PPG, which ranks 25th. The offense has to rely on backup QB Blaine Gabbert, who threw for only 189 yards against the Titans and wasn't able to get the Cardinals into the end zone (team settled for four FGs). The running game averages a woeful 81.2 YPG (30th) and on the season, Arizona ranks 26th in scoring at 17.8 PPG.

Washington: Kirk Cousins had a poor game last Sunday vs. the Chargers (a 30-13 loss), throwing for only 151 yards with one a touchdown and one interception. However, he is wrapping up another solid season (65.9% for an average of 240.7 YPG through the air with a 22-9 ratio and a QB rating of 97.7) but once again, the Redskins are headed 'nowhere!' I wonder where Cousins will be headed next season? Defensively, the ‘Skins had an interception that turned into a 96-yard pick-six from Beshaud Breeland but that was about all they could hang their hats on, as they allowed 488 yards of total offense and over 35 minutes of possession to the Chargers in the loss.

The pick: However, the Cardinals hardly resemble the red-hot Chargers. In fact, Arizona comes in 1-5 ATS on the road in 2017, winning onty at Indy in OT (Colts are 3-11) and at San Francisco, as part of the 49ers' 0-9 start to the season. I realize the Redskins have their fair share of injuries and are not exactly the most harmonious team in the NFL at the moment but Cousins over Gabbert (198 YPG passing with 6 TDs and 5 INTs for an 80.8 QB rating), is a bargain. Make Washington an 8* play.

The set-up: The Los Angeles Chargers opened 0-4, before winning their Week 5 game against the winless Giants. Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs began 5-0. Who could have possibly predicted back then that this Week 15 Saturday night game between the visiting Chargers and the homestanding Chiefs would be for sole possession of first-place in the AFC West. However, that's exactly the case, as both team's come in 7-6. KC's slide began with a 19-13 home loss to the Steelers in Week 6 and last Sunday;s 26-15 win over the Raiders ended a four-game slide, as well as a stretch in which the Chiefs had lost six of seven. The Chargers followed their win over the Giants with two more victories but back-to-back losses left them 3-6 entering Week 11. Eleven was a lucky number for the Chargers, as their 54-24 rout of the Bills has sparked a four-game winning streak.

LA Chargers: QB Philip Rivers is completing 62.8 percent of his passes for 3,611 yards, and is headed for another 4,000 yard passing season (that would make nine of 10!). He has 23 TDs and just seven interceptions for a QB rating of 97.2. WR Keenan Allen has stayed healthy and checks in with 83 catches for 1,143 yards and five TDs. TE Hunter has 42 catches (4 TDs), WR Williams 32 catches (3 TDs) and RB Gordon 43 catches (4 TDs). Gordon leads the team with 853 rushing yards (just 3.7 YPC) but also has six TDs. The Chargers' running game ranks just 24th (99.5 YPG) but Gordon has become a solid dual-purpose RB. The defense has been excellent, allowing just 17.3 YPG (2nd) .

Kansas City; The Chiefs finally saw the return of rookie RB Kareen Hunt in last Sunday's win over the Raiders. He rand for 116 yards, his first 100-yard games since Week 5 (had 100-plus yards four times in his first five games). QB Alex Smith was near-perfect through five games and while he's come back to earth, it's hard to argue with his 67.2% completions on the season (23-5 ratio) and his 104.4 QB rating. The Chiefs defense has been a weakness all season, ranking 30th against the run (124.8 YPG) and 28th versus the pass (248.5 YPG). However, they've been able to "limit the damage," allowing 22.2 PPG (15th). In last Sunday's win, they held the Raiders to 268 total yards and15 points, while forcing three turnovers .

The pick: KC dominated the first meeting, winning 24-10 in LA back in Week 3. However, both teams look very different now. Philip Rivers has led a resurgent offense, averaging 337.0 YPG through the air with eight TDs and not a single interception during the team's four-game winnings streak, LA is averaging 32.8 PPG in that span and I see little reason to expect the KC defense to "keep a lid" on this Rivers-led offense. As for KC, Smith continues his career season and Hunt, who ran for 172 yards against the Chargers in that first meeting, may just have "found his second wind" last Sunday. KC has won seven in this series, so don't expect them to "roll over." Make the Over is a 10* play.

The set-up: The NFL has seen TV ratings dip in 2017 and Thursday's matchup between the 4-9 Denver Broncos and the 3-10 Indianapolis Colts won't be able to help those ratings. The Broncos snapped their longest losing streak since joining the NFL in 1970 with a 23-0 shutout of the New York Jets last Sunday and the team was able to avoid tying its franchise futility record of nine consecutive losses set way back in 1967. As for the Colts, they have lost their last four games, including Sunday in that "very snowy" game in Buffalo13-7.

Denver: The Broncos have tried three QBs this season and the trio has combined for 15 TDs and 18 INTs, while sporting a QB rating of 71.1. Trevor Siemian is back as the team's starter and he didn't do much vs. the Jets, going 19 of 31 for 200 yards one TD and no INTs. The Broncos only had 273 yards and that's not new, as they enter this game averaging only 17.6 PPG (24th). However, the Denver defense was spectacular, holding the Jets to six FDs and a total of just 100 yards. Denver now leads the NFL in total defense, allowing only 280.5 YPG. However, despite shutting out the Jets, Denver ranks just 24th in points allowed, at 24.2 PPG. A big reason for that is that Denver's TO ratio of minus-14 ranks 31st in the league.

Indianapolis: QB Jacoby Brissett was only able to pass for 69 yards in the snow at Buffalo and enters with just 11 TDs and seven INTs on the season (2,611 passing yards with a QB rating of 82.5). Indy's offense is averaging only 16.3 PPG (30th) and its defense ranks 31st in points allowed (26.4 per) and 30th in yards allowed (375.3 YPG). Frank Gore had a career-high 36 rushing attempts vs. the Bills, while gaining 130 yards. Yes, the 34-year-old needs just 59 scrimmage yards to join Hall of Famer Emmitt Smith as the only players in NFL history with at least 12-plus consecutive seasons with 1,000 yards. However, the Colts' running game averages only 104.0 YPG (20th).

The pick: The Broncos not only broke an eight-game losing streak by beating the Jets last Sunday but they also snapped an 0-8 ATS run, as well. The Broncos are not as bad as their record but the Colts are. Make Denver an 8* play.

The set-up: The Steelers won a 39-38 thriller Sunday night over the Ravens for the team's eighth straight win. Pittsburgh has now matched New England's eight-winning streak (longest-active in the NFL) and its 11-2 record ensures that the Steelers will be no worse than tied the with Pats when the teams meet next Sunday at Heinz Field. It's the showdown all NFL fans have been waiting for and the Pats need to "keep up their end'" by earning a ninth consecutive win in Week 14's MNF contest at Hard Rock Stadium againts the Miami Dolphins. A win will also give the Pats an 11-2 mark but while the Dolphins are just 5-7, winning in Miami has not come easy for the Pats in recent years. In fact, the Pats had lost three straight trips to Miami from 2013-2015 (the 2015 loss cost them the home-field playoff edge & the Pats would lose in Denver for the AFC title!), before routing the Dolphins 35-14 last season. The Dolphins halted a five-game losing skid with a 35-9 drubbing of the Denver Broncos last weekend and while it was the team's best effort of the season, it did come over a Broncos team which had lost eight in a row before yesterday's 23-0 shutout over the Jets.

New England: The ageless Tom Brady is completing 68.5 percent of his passes for 3,632 yards with 26 TDs and just four INTs, giving hima 109.7 QB rating. The Pats lead the NFL in passing (297.6 YPG) and three receivers have 50-plus catches. TE Rob Gronkowski has a team-high 55 with a team-high 7 TDs, WR Brandin Cooks has 53 with a team-high 16.7 YPC and RB James White has 51 catches (WR Danny Amendola just misses with 46 receptions). The New England Patriots ground game is averaging 120.6 YPG (9th), as Dion Lewis has run fro 204 yards (6.8 YPC) the least two weeks, with the Pats rushing for 191 and 196 yards, respectively. As good as the Pats' offense has been, it's defense is back to being one of the league's best. After getting ripped for 32.0 PPG during the team's 2-2 start, that same unit has not allowed more than 17 points in any of its eight straight wins, allowing an average of just 11.9 PPG. The defense now ranks 4th on the season at 18.6 PPG.

Miami: The Dolphins were gouged for a 177 points (35.4 per) during their five-game losing streak before sending the Broncos to their eighth straight defeat. Miami got a pair of safeties and a TD from its defense and special teams, which was a much-needed effort. QB Jay Cutler passed for 235 yards with two TDs and two INTs, giving him 15 TDs and 11 INTs on the season (QB rating of 82.1). Miami's passing offense averages only 207.9 YPG (20th), almost 100 YPG less than New England's and Miami is averaging just 17.4 PPG (27th), just shy of 12 PPG less than the Pats. With Ajayi traded away to Philly (you explain why?), the Dolphins now rank 29th in rushing, averaging only 84.7 YPG. The Miami defense had been getting gouged prior to last Sunday's win (see above) and was ripped for 35 points on 417 yards up in New England back in Week 12.

The pick: Hard to see the Pats losing here, with so much on the line next week in Pittsburgh. What's more, the Pats haven't lost a regular season road game since Week 17 of the 2015 season (1/3/16). Then again, that loss did come in Miami, the Dolphins' third straight home win over the Pats at the time (Dolphins did lose at home to the Pats last season, 35-14). The Pats are far from healthy coming into this game plus Gronk is suspended, Dion Lewis is sick, Chris Hogan is just coming off a shoulder injury and Tom Brady has missed practice due to a banged up Achilles. Brady always plays and Lewis is expected to go but this is a huge number to lay on the road. The following stat clinches things, as the home team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these two AFC East rivals. Make Miami a 10* play.

The set-up: The AFC North rivalry between the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers has quickly developed as one of the biggest, best and most-bitter in the entire NFL. The 7-5 Ravens will be hard-pressed to catch the Steelers for the division title but as Baltimore visits Heinz Field for Sunday Night Football, the Ravens currently own the AFC's No. 6 seed (final playoff spot). The 10-2 Steelers come into this matchup looking to build on their seven-game winning streak which currently has them tied with the Pats for the AFC's best record but as the owners of the tie-breaker (I'm sure the world knows the Pats and Steelers meet next Sunday in Pittsburgh).

Baltimore:The Ravens have a winning streak of their own but it's a modest three-gamer. Flacco has struggled all season at QB, as Baltimore ranks 31st in passing YPG at 171.0 per). He's completing 65.1% but has as many INTs as TD passes (11 each), giving him a QB rating of 77.1. WRs Mike Wallace (34) and Jeremy Maclin (36) have combined for 878 receiving yards and six TD reception (three each), while TE Benjamin Watson leads the team with 45 catches (just 7.7 YPC). RB Alex Collins leads the way with 705 yards rushing (4.9 YPC) but Baltimore ranks 12th overall on the ground, averaging 115.5 YPG. and four touchdowns. The defense is not comparable to the Ray Lewis-era units but the Ravens rank third in allowing 17.2 PPG (3rd) on 311.2 YPG (7th).

Pittsburgh: The Steelers fell behind the Bengals 17-0 last Monday but came back to win 23-20, keeping their No. 1 seed status intact. The "Killers Bs" are just that. Big Ben has thrown for 3,238 yards with 22 TDs and 13 INTs on the season but note that in the team's seven-game winning streak since losing 30-9 at home to the Jaguars (Roethlisberger threw five picks in that one!), he has a 16-6 TD-to-INT ratio. RB Le'Veon Bell got a slow start but now leads the NFL in rushing with 1,057 yards (also has 66 catches) plus WR Antonio Brown has 88 catches and an NFL-high 1,296 yards (nine TDs). Pittsburgh's D is comparable to Baltimore's, allowing 17.8 PPG (5th) on 294.7 YPG (4th).

The pick: When these teams met back in Week 4 (at Baltimore), it was not a typical Ba/Pit game, as the Steelers won handily, 26-9. This game figures to much more intense but note that the Ravens' OL is in much better health these days and Flacco has led the team to an average of 30.0 PPG in its three-game winning streak. Could the Steelers be caught looking ahead to their showdown in Week 15 with the Pats? I can't see that and Big Ben has thrived in his last five SNF home games, throwing 21 TDs and just three INTs with a 127.8 QB rating. How about an 8* on the Over.

The set-up: It's NFL Week 14 and the New York Jets are in Denver to take on the Broncos. There were many who thought that the Jets would be battling the Browns and maybe the 49ers for the overall No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft as the 2017 season opened and there were more than a few who thought that the Broncos could rebound from a record in 2016, to challenge the Chiefs and Raiders in the AFC West. The Jets opened 0-2 and the refrain, "Here we go again" was prominent in the New York area. However, the Jets rebounded to win three in a row after that and while the team comes into this contest a modest 5-7, the Jets have been way more competitive than almost anyone would have believed (Jets are 7-4-1 ATS). As for Denver, a 3-1 start to the 2017 season has quickly turned into a 'nightmare,' as the Broncos get set to host the Jets looking to break an eight-game losing streak in which the team has also gone 0-8 ATS (now that's bad football!).

NY Jets: The Jets beat the slumping KC Chiefs 38-31 last Sunday, as QB Josh McCown completed 26 of 36 pass for 331 yards and a TD, while also rushing for a pair of scores (who is this guy?). McCown is completing 67.8% for 2,880 yards with 18 TDs and just eight INTs (96.7 QB rating). He's done all that with an impotent running game averaging only 106.8 YPG (18th). Little-known WRs Jermaine Kearse (51 catches / 5 TDs) and Robby Anderson (49 / 16.8 YPC / 7 TDs) have been more than capable.

Denver: The Broncos have tried three QBs (Siemian, Osweiler and Lynch) and neither is much of an answer. In fairness to Lynch, he's been sidelined most of the season with an injury. However, Denver QBs are completing only 57.5% with 14 TDs and 18 INTs for a collective QB rating of 69.7. The running game, once among the league's best, ranks just 17th at 107.3 YPG. That leaves an offense which scores only 17.2 PPG (27th). The once-proud defense still ranks high in yards allowed (295.6 YPG ranks 5th) but in the all-important category of points allowed, the Broncos rank 31st (2nd-to-last) at 26.2 PPG. The team's minus-16 TO margin (also ranked 31st), doesn't help.

The pick: A switch back to Trevor Siemian at QB vs. Miami last Sunday didn't much work (he threw three picks in the 35-9 loss), so there is little reason to expect too much different here. Compare Denver's effort vs. Miami (9 points on 270 yards) to the Jets' effort vs. KC, in which they overcame a two-TD deficit to win, 38-31 (Jets rolled up 488 yards!). While the Broncos are on an 0-8 ATS run, the Jets are now 7-2-1 ATS their last 10. Make the Jets an 8* play.

The set-up: The 10-2 Minnesota Vikings are riding an eight-game winning streak (tied with the Pats for the NFL's longest-active one) into Sunday's game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, where they will face the 8-4 Carolina Panthers. The Vikings have all but clinched the NFC North (four up with four to play) but are still battling the 10-2 Eagles for the NFC's top seed (Minnesota currently owns the tie-breaker). The Panthers have lost twice to the Saints in 2017 which is bad news but with New Orleans losing Thursday night in Atlanta, Carolina has a chance to move into a first-place tie with the Saints by beating the Vikings in this one. Also of importance is winning to stay ahead of the 8-5 Falcons, as the Panthers would fall back into a tie with Atlanta if they lose here.

Minnesota: Case Keenum was expected be a stop-gap measure at QB, hoping that either Bradford or even Bridgewater would be able to get back on the field. However, he's turned in one of 2017's most surprising performances, as he's 8-2 as Minnesota's starting QB this season. He's completing 67.5% for 2,703 yards with 16 TDs and just five INTs for a 98.6 QB rating. He's also gotten better than expected help from Minnesota's "no-name" RBs, as after rookie Dalvin Cook was lost for the season, Murray (572 yards) and McKinnon (414 yards) have filled in admirably. The Vikings rank 6th with 122.8 YPG on the ground. The offense averages 23.8 PPG (11th) but it's the defense which has made the bigger difference, ranking second in both points allowed (17.0 per) and total defense (289.1 YPG).

Carolina: The Panthers have been tough to figure in 2017. They have looked very good at times, like in their 33-30 win at New England but then just helpless like in a 17-3 loss in Chicago to the Bears. Cam Newton has to carry the team and sometimes he's just asked to do too much. He's nowhere near the numbers of his 2015 MVP season but his 515 yards rushing helps Carolina average 127.8 YPG on the ground (5th-best). The offense is scoring slightly less than Minnesota's at 22.4 PPG (16th) and while the Carolina D is solid (10th in allowing 19.8 PPG and 6th with 297.6 YPG), it's not quite in Minnesota's league.

The pick: Both teams have plenty to play for and at first blush, one could have to give the edge to the home-standing Panthers, as the Vikings are playing a third straight tough game on the road (at Detroit on Thanksgiving and at Atlanta last Sunday). However, Minnesota is just not 'backing off,' as the Vikings are looking for not only a ninth straight win but also an eighth straight cover. No way Newton is looking forward to facing that Minnesota D, as in last year's meeting, he was picked off three times and sacked eight times in a 22-10 home loss. Speaking of home, the Panthers are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. Make Minnesota an 8* play.

The set-up: The 3-9 Chicago Bears will visit Paul Brown Stadium on Sunday to take on the 5-7 Cincinnati Bengals. The Bears average 275.8 YPG on offense (ranking 32nd of 32 teams) and the Bengals average 280.8 YPG, ranking 31st. The Bears limp in on a five-game losing streak (well out of the playoff 'picture') while the Bengals had won two in a row before a 23-20 loss to the Steelers on Monday night (Cincy led 17-0 in the very late second quarter).

Chicago: The Bears have given up on Mike Glennon (66.4% completions but just 188.8 YPG with 4 TDs & 5 INTs for a 76.9 QB rating) but first round draft pick Mitch Trubisky hasn't been much better, completing only 54.9 percent for 138.6 YPG with 5 TDs & 4 INTs (QB rating of 74.6). Jordan Howard is the Bears’ top rusher with 885 yards (4.2 YPC & 5 TDs) but rookie RB Tarik Cohen (267 RY / 3.9 YPC) is the team's leading receiver with 39 catches and averages only 7.8 YPC. As for Da Bears' defense, it's middle-of-the-road ranking 14th in both points allowed (22.2 PPG) and yards allowed (333.2 YPG).

Cincinnati: QB Andy Dalton threw for 234 yards and two TDs (zero INTs) on 21-of-36 passing Monday night. He's now thrown 11 TD passes without an INT (over 171 attempts) over Cincy's last six games, although the Bengals are just 3-3 SU in that span. Giovani Bernard was the Bengals’ top rusher with 77 yards on 13 carries but he still doesn't have 200 yards rushing on the season, as the Bengals rank 30th in rushing, averaging only 80.2 YPG. The Cincy D has been fine, allowing 19.8 PPG (11th) on 334.1 YPG (16th).

The pick: Cincy is still alive in the AFC wild card race mostly because the Bengals have been able to beat DeShone Kizer (twice), Jacoby Brissett, and Brock Osweiler. Can Cincy best Mitch Trubisky, as well? That's fair but the Bengals not only dropped a brutal 23-20 decision to the Steelers on Monday but they but may have also lost RB Joe Mixon (leading rusher at 518 yards) and linebacker Vontaze Burfict to concussions in the hard-hitting affair. Both players missed practice during the week while in concussion protocol. Note that Chicago kept Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers out of the end zone the entire way last week, losing only when former Bear Robbie Gould booted five FGs in his return to the Windy City, including a game-winner with just four seconds to play. The Bears have been within one score (except at Philly) in all losses with Trubisky, while the Bengals have only covered 11 of their last 30 regular season games. Make Chicago a 10* play.

The set-up: The 9-3 New Orleans Saints lead the NFC South at 9-3 with the 8-4 Carolina Panthers sitting one game back. The Panthers are tied with the 8-4 Seahawks, with Seattle winning the tie-breaker to give them the NFC's No. 1 wild card spot. The Panthers on the No. 6 seed but a third member the the division is the 7-5 Atlanta Falcons (the defending NFC champs), who are lurking just one game back of the Seahawks and Panthers. Week 14's Thursday Night Football features the Saints and Falcons from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

New Orleans: The Saints saw their eight-game winning streak snapped in a Week 12 loss at the LA Rams but bounced back last Sunday with a 31-21 home win over the Panthers. Drew Brees is still a potent force (71.5% with 17 TDs and just 5 INTs / 104.2 QB rating) but the performances of RBs Mark Ingram Alvin Kamara have somewhat re-defined the Saints' offense. The New Orleans rushing game is averaging 142.6 YPG (3rd), with Ingram gaining 922 yards (5.1 YPC / 9 TDs) and Kamara adding 606 yards (7.0 YPC / 5 TDs). Kamara has four more TDs on 59 catches, while Ingram has 42 catches but no TDs. Then there is the New Orleans' D, which has been a (the?) major reason the Saints have missed the playoffs three straight seasons going 8-8, 8-8 and 7-9. Starting from that 7-9 season, New Orleans' had allowed 26.5 PPG on 384.0 YPG, then 29.8 PPG on 413.8 YPG and finally 28.4 PPG on 375.4 YPG. This year's unit is allowing 20.2 PPG on 330.1 YPG, with both figures ranking 12th-best!

Atlanta: The Falcons welcomed the Vikings to Atlanta last Sunday on a three-game winning streak. However, QB Matt Ryan passed for just 173 yards on 16-of-29 with 0 TDS and INTs, while Atlanta was not able to score a TD (had three 38 FGs in a 14-9 loss). Ryan (3,057 yards with 16 TDs and eight INTs / 95.4 QB rating) has not played like he did last year when he was league MVP (he threw for 4,944 yards with TDs, 7 INTs and had a QB rating of 117.1). Atlanta boasts a potent pair of RBs in its own right in Devonta Freeman (589 yards / 4.6 YPC / 3 TDs and Tevin Coleman (569 yards / 4.3 YPC / 6 TDs. Freeman returned from a concussion in a 14-9 loss to Minnesota on Sunday, gaining 74 yards on just 12 carries. However, the Atlanta rushing attack averages a more modest 115.6 YPG to rank 11th. WR Julio Jones owns an NFC-best 1,063 receiving yards (68 catches) but was limited to two catches for 24 yards versus the Vikings. Atlanta led the NFL in averaging 33.8 PPG last season but comes in averaging only 22.8 PPG in 2017, which ranks 14th. The defense has been solid, allowing 20.3 PPG (13th) on 321.0 YPG (8th).

The pick: The Saints have already beaten the Panthers twice in 2017 and now play the Falcons tonight and then again in Week 16 (two times in three weeks). A win here would put New Orleans in a great spot and put Atlanta's playoff chances on 'life support.' Matt Ryan and offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian seemed to have finally gotten on the same page in Atlanta's three-game winnings (had averaged 31.7 PPG) but it all collapsed against the Minnesota D. Yes, New Orleans' D is greatly improved but shutting down Atlanta a second straight week will be tough, especially considering how badly Atlanta needs this game. These teams played a pair of shootouts in 2016, with Atlanta winning both by scores of 45-32 and 38-32. I'll stay away from calling for an Atlanta win but will say make the Over a 10* play.

The set-up: The Steelers and Bengals have developed a big rivalry over the years but in fairness, it's been pretty much one-sided (Pittsburgh leads the series 61-35). The Steelers will visit Paul Brown Stadium for MNF on a six-game winning streak and looking to match New England's 10-2 record (with a win) for the AFC';s top mark. The Bengals enter on a modest two-game winning streak, after wins over the sad-sack Broncos (eight straight losses) and Browns (0-12 on the season). Cincinnati checks in at 5-6 and an upset would keep them alive in what's becoming a very crowded AFC wild card field.

Pittsburgh: The latest version of the "Killer Bs" lead the Pittsburgh offense. QB Ben Roethlisberger is rounding into form after a shaky start to the year and has 2,948 yards with 20 touchdowns and 12 INTs, "Big Ben" threw five iNTs in that Oct. 8 home loss to the Jags but in the team' six-game winning streak, has 14 TDs and just five total INTs. Le’Veon Bell held out in the preseason and started slowly but he's re-established himself as the NFL's most dominant RB with 981 rushing yards (5 TDs) plus 61 receptions for 396 yards. Only Atlanta's Julio Jones can make an argument against Antonio Brown being the NFL's best WR and I'm not buying Jones. Brown has 80 catches for 1,195 yards and eight TDs. The Pittsburgh defense (as always) is among the NFL's best units. The Steelers allow 289.4 YPG (3rd) and 17.5 PPG (4th).

Cincinnati: The Bengals are off a 30-16 win in Week 12 over the Browns but enter averaging just 18.1 PPG (25th) on an NFL-low 274.3 YPG (note; Cincy has scored 30 points just twice in 2017, both times against the still win-less Browns!). Good news last week was rookie RB Joe Mixon finally showing some sizzle by rushing for a season-high 114 yards and a TD and catching three passes for 51 yards. However, it did come against Cleveland and the Bengals' rushing attack averages only 75.6 YPG (ranks dead-last at 32nd). QB Andy Dalton has nine TDs and zero INTs since the team's Week 7 loss to the Steelers but he will likely remember that he was sacked four times, picked off twice and the Bengals managed a meager 19 total yards in the second half in that 29-14 loss. Wideout A.J. Green has a team-high 809 receiving yards (52 catches / 6 TDs), which is more than double any other Bengals player (2nd-best has 373 yards receiving). As noted. the offense ranks 32nd overall and in rushing, so Dalton's job is not an easy one. However, the Cincy D has been solid, allowing 19.5 PPG (10th) on 330.5 YPG (14th).

The pick: The Bengals have won two in a row to stay within striking distance of the final playoff berth in the AFC but they will be taking a major step up in class against this bitter rival. Cincinnati's last three wins have come over the Browns, Broncos and Colts! The Bengals were dominated by the Steelers 29-14 in Pittsburgh in Week 7 (see above) and will it change much here, even in Cincy? I can't see why it should. The Steelers have beaten the Bengals five straight and have not lost at Paul Brown Stadium since 2013. Make Pittsburgh a 10* play.

The set-up: NBC Sunday Night Football gets Week 13's marquee NFL matchup as the 10-1 Philadelphia Eagles, owners of a nine-game winning streak and the NFL's best record, visits CenturyLink Field to take on the the 7-4 Seattle Seahawks. This could be a battle of QBs. Philly's Carson Wentz leads the NFL's top-ranked scoring unit (31.9 PPG) per game). He tossed three TD passes in the Eagles' 31-3 Week 12 win over the Bears and has thrown 22 of his NFL-best 28 TD passes in the last seven games to put his name firmly in the mix for MVP honors. Wentz' counterpart is Seattle's Russell Wilson, who is third in the league in passing TDs (23), is tied for fourth in passing yards per game (275) and is responsible for nearly 86 percent of his team's scrimmage yards (talk about a "one-man gang!").

Philadelphia: Wentz has had a terrific sophomore season with 20 TDs and zero interceptions in the red zone. He's got a developing corps of receivers led by TE Ertz (55 catches / 7 TDs) plus WRs Jeffrey (43 catches / 7 TDs) and Agholor (33 catches / 6 TDs). The running game is strong, averaging 147.5 YPG (2nd). LeGarrette Blount led the team with 97 yards vs. the Bears and has 658 yards on the season (4.8 YPC). Philly traded for Miami' Ajayi and while he seems to be just a 'spot' player, let's note that in three games, he has 194 rushing yards while averaging 9.7 YPC! Let's not move on until mentioning the Philly D, which allows just 17.4 PPG (3rd) on 291.6 YPG (6th).

Seattle: The Seahawks are currently one game behind the 8-3 Rams in the NFC West plus find themselves losing a tie-breaker to the Atlanta Falcons for the NFC's final wild card spot. The Seahawks stayed one game back of the Rams with last Sunday's 24-13 win at San Francisco. Russell Wilson was 20 of 34 for 228 yards with two TDs and one INT. He has 23 TDs and just eight INTs on the season plus is Seattle's leading rusher with 401 yards (6.2 YPC / 3 TDs). WR Baldwin leads with 58 catches but TE Graham is coming on strong with 49 receptions and a team-high eight TD catches (all in the last seven games). Seattle's "Legion of Boom" defense has suffered key injuries but Seattle remains a solid defensive team, allowing 19.3 PPG (9th) on 311.7 YPG (8th)

The pick: The Eagles have been terrific but they have played just two teams which currently own a winning record, Kansas City (a Week 2 loss) and Carolina (a Week 6 win). A check of the record book reveals that Russell is an impressive 37-7 SU (.841) at home as a starting QB in the regular season. Seattle as a home dog? I can't pass on that! Make Seattle a 10* play.

The set-up: The 0-11 Cleveland Browns, the NFL's lone win-less team, travels to Los Angeles and StubHub Center to take on the rejuvenated LA Chargers. The Chargers opened 0-4, just like the Browns, but unlike Cleveland which has continued to lose, Los Angeles has won five of its last seven. LA will take the field just 5-6 on the season but thanks to the Kansas City Chiefs' collapse (KC has lost five of six after a 5-0 start), the Chargers are just one game out of first in the AFC West. Getting back to Cleveland, the Browns are desperately seeking their first win of 2017, as the team's two-year 'nightmare' continues (Browns are 1-26 under head coach Hue Jackson).

Cleveland: The Browns are still looking for their first victory since Christmas Eve of last year and Cleveland hasn't won a road game since October of 2015. Other than that, things are great! QB DeShone Kizer hardly looks ready for prime time, completing 53.0 percent with five TDs and 14 INTs (QB rating of 57.2). He gets little help from his running (107.4 YPG ranks 17th) and Cleveland 'brings up the rear" in averaging an NFL-low 15.1 PPG. However, the team has to be excited that WR Josh Gordon returning to action for the first time since Dec. 21, 2014 due to his substance-abuse issues. "I'm just excited," Gordon, the NFL's top receiver in 2013, said during a press conference. "I'm having the most fun that I have ever had doing this, just playing ball, the love of it. That is the only thing that is giving me any type of - not really pressure - but kind of just boost, more than anything." Gordon led the NFL with 1,646 receiving yards in 2013, when he caught 87 passes (nine for TDs) in 14 games while earning Pro Bowl honors. The Cleveland defense has not played all that badly (318.0 YPG ranks 9th) but the NFL's worst TO margin (minus-17) has contributed to them allowing 26.3 PPG, which ranks 30th.

LA Chargers: The Chargers look for a third straight victory to get back to a .500 record, after a 54-24 home win over the Bills and a 28-6 win at Dallas on Thanksgiving. Rivers completed 72.3% in those two wins, throwing for 685 yards with five TDs and no INTs. He's completing 62.1 percent for 2,948 yards with 20 TDs and seven INTs (95.2 rating). The Chargers rank 4th in passing YPG, putting Rivers on pace for his ninth 4,000-yard season in his last 10 years. RB Gordon is only averaging 3.7 YPC but has been a good all-purpose back. He's run for 698 yards (5 TDs) and caught 38 passes for four more TDs. WR Keenan Allen has stayed healthy and has 67 catches (13.8 YPC) with four TDs. The Chargers' D has also played well, allowing just 18.4 PPG (6th).

The pick: I noted at the top that the Browns last won back on Christmas Eve 2016. The Chargers won't need to be reminded of that here, considering they were the team the Browns beat last Christmas Eve, 20-17. The charged-up Bolts are eager to not only avenge last year's loss to Cleveland but to keep the pressure on KC, which plays at the Jets earlier in the day. Philip Rivers will make his 188th consecutive start and that is now the longest active streak in the league after the New York Giants demoted Eli Manning (210). Rivers looks great and it's hard to imagine Cleveland slowing him and the Chargers down (the Browns have allowed 30 or more points on six occasions in 2017). As for Cleveland, the return of Gordon can be nothing but good news and as Hue Jackson commented, "I have big plans for him. I plan for him to play, and play as much as he can handle. I think he is a very talented player. He needs to play, needs to get out there and play, but we have to see where he is and make sure how much can he handle, how much can he do." Make the Over an 8* play

The set-up: For a long time, the Indianapolis Colts dominated the AFC South, first led by Peyton Manning and then Andrew Luck. However, the Colts entered the 2017 season off back-to-back seasons and with Andrew Luck never getting on the field, find themselves at 3-8 entering Week 13. The Colts would need to "win out" to reach 8-8 this season and we can be pretty sure that won't happen. Indy visits Jacksonville on Sunday and the 7-4 Jaguars are attempting to end a nine-season playoff drought. Jacksonville is tied with Tennessee for first place in the AFC South as it opens a three-game homestand on Sunday against the Colts.The Titans currently own the tie-breaker but the good news is the Jags currently own the AFC's No. 1 wild card spot.

Indianapolis: The Colts' season unraveled early as Luck has been unavailable due to a shoulder injury. The team's next loss will clinch its first losing campaign since 2011. "It's tough, but I know what type of guys we've got in this locker room - great group of guys who will come to work every day," veteran RB Frank Gore told reporters. "I know things haven't been going our way, and I think if we just handle the small things, I think that can change." Gore needs just 49 rushing yards against the Jaguars to pass Jerome Bettis (13,662) and LaDainian Tomlinson (13,684) and move into fifth place on the all-time list but "he's dreaming" about this team turning things around. Jacoby Brissett is limited at QB (9 TDs / 5 INTs / QB rating of 86.0), as the Colts rank 26th in averaging 201.3 YPG (26th). Gore and the team's rushing 'attack' ranks 24th, averaging 95.3 YPG. That adds up to the team averaging only 17.2 PPG (27th). On the defensive side of the ball, Indy is allowing an NFL-worst 27.3 PPG on 375.8 YPG (29th). Go back and re-visit Gore's quote and try NOT to laugh!

Jacksonville: The Jags considered replacing QB Blake Bortles in the preseason but they didn't have a "plan B." Bortles has made fewer mistakes this season but he's is a liability. He's completing a modest 58.3% with just 12 TDs (albeit, just 8 INTs). The Jags rank just 28th with 194.8 YPG passing but have been bailed out offensively by the NFL's No. 1-ranked running game. Rookie RB Leonard Fournette has been up-and-down this season but his 765 yards (4.1 YPC / 6 TDs) is a team-high for a Jacksonville team averaging 154.3 YPG! Jacksonville's D played hard last season but the turnover-plagued offense kept many people from noticing. However, the Jags enter this Week 13 game ranked first in points allowed (15.3 per game) and yards allowed (281.8 per game).

The pick: Jacksonville is 3-0 ATS following a SU loss in 2017, with those victories coming by 37, 21 & 27 points. Maybe I should just "lay it" but this low total has me more interested. The Colts are allowing 33.2 PPG on the road and after getting shut out at home by the Jags, I think the Colts are more than capable of at least putting up their season average on offense (just shy of 18 points). Make the Over an 8* play.

The set-up: Two 6-5 teams will meet at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore on Sunday and the loser's playoff hopes will clearly be damaged. The Lions took a three-game winning streak into their Thanksgiving Day showdown with the Vikings but the 30-23 loss all but ended Detroit's division hopes. A second straight loss here could be a 'killer' for the Lions' wild card chances. As for the Ravens, they come in having won three of their last four and currently the team's 6-5 record is good enough for the AFC's final playoff spot (No. 6 seed).

Detroit: QB Matthew Stafford signed a five-year, $135 million deal in the summer to become the highest-paid player in the NFL. He's NOT the league's best player or QB but he's completed 62.5 percent for 3,010 yards with 21 TDs and six INTs (QB rating of 97.3). He's had multiple TD passes in the four straight games and in eight of 11 this season. Detroit's much-maligned rushing game takes plenty of hits (78.3 YPG ranks 30th) but Ameer Abdullah (505 YR / 3.4 YPC / 3 TDs) had been a positive factor of late with three TDs (two rushing, one receiving) during the team's three-game winning streak, before being shut down by the Vikings. Golden Tate leads with 63 catches but Jones averages 16.6 YPC on his 44 catches with eight TDs. The defense has been below average all season and enters allowing 24.0 PPG (22nd) on 359.4 YPG (26th).

Baltimore: While Detroit has received excellent QB play, the Ravens' Flacco has struggled all season. He's thrown just nine TD passes with 11 INTs, giving him a QB rating of 74.2. Baltimore's average of 164.3 YPG passing ranks dead-last (32) in the NFL. The lack of explosiveness is reflected in the fact that veteran TE Ben Watson (42) and RB Javorius Allen (41) are 1-2 on the team in receptions. The running game is no better than average (116.8 YPG ranks 16th) and the Ravens' are fortunate to be averaging 21.5 PPG (18th). However, the team's D has forced a league-high 26 takeaways (18 INTs is also an NFL-high), giving Baltimore a turnover ratio of plus-11 (again, best in the NFL).

The pick: The Baltimore D has three shutouts this season but truthfully, it's not what it was in the Ray Lewis era. Then again, Baltimore's stop unit is doing just that. It allows 305.7 YPG (7th) but along with a league-best 26 takeaways, allows just 17.0 PPG, which ranks second. For all of Stafford's nice numbers, he's 0-3 in the playoffs and has never been known as a 'finisher.' Neither have the Lions, as they are just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games in December. Make Baltimore an 8* play.

The set-up: The Dallas Cowboys welcome the Washington Redskins to AT&T Stadium for Thursday Night Football. This has traditionally been one of the league's great rivalries but this Week 13 meeting features two 5-6 teams with all but zero chance to win the NFC East plus neither team is really 'alive' in the wild card hunt, either. That said, the Redskins at least have a glimmer of hope, as none of their final five opponents currently own a winning record. That includes the Cowboys, who are now 0-3 SU & ATS since "Zeke" began serving his suspension, getting out-scored 92-to-22!

Washington: The Redskins only put up 20 points in their Week 12 win over the Giants but QB Kirk Cousins did throw for 242 yards with two TDs (one INT). He's having another strong season (66.2% for 3,038 yards with 19 TDs and six INTs, giving him a QB rating of 101.3) and it seems as only Washington management is not high on this guy." Rookie RB Samaje Perine has given the running game a huge lift with 217 rushing yards in his last two contests and with Elliott sidelined, he's the best RB on the field. Perine, second-year Redskins receiver Josh Doctson (21 catches / 15.6 YPC / 4 TDs) and kicker Nick Rose (10 if 11 on FG attempt) are likely looking forward to returning to their home state to face a Cowboys defense that has given up more than its share of points, yards and big plays of late. That Washington defense should also be looking forward to taking advantage of a struggling Dallas offense (see above & below).

Dallas: Many wondered who was more important to Dallas last year, "Zeke" or Dak. Right now, it's hard to argue against Elliott being the more important 'piece,' as Dallas has scored just one TD in three games without him (averaging 7.3 PPG), while Prescott has looked lost. His protection has been awful (14 sacks) and that has contributed to his woes but he's averaged just 166.7 YPG passing (high of 179) with five INTs and not a single TD pass (88 attempts) in the Cowboys' three-game slide. FYI...Zak threw just four INTs in his rookie season of 2016, in 459 pass attempts!

The pick: The Redskins lost 33-19 to the Cowboys in Week 8 at FedEx Field but in that one, Elliott rushed for a season-high 150 yards and two TDs, fueling the Dallas offense in the win over Washington the way he did for much of the 2016 season. That was then and this is now. Not only has the Dallas offense 'hit a brick wall' (the Cowboys have failed to score at least 10 points in three straight games for the first time in franchise history) but its defense has allowed an average of 30.7 PPG in the team's 0-3 SU & ATS slide. QBs Ryan, Wentz and Rivers have thrown for 817 yards (272.3 per) with seven TDs and just one INT (in 89 pass attempts). Past history means little right now. Cousins is next up to rip the Dallas D and the Zeke-less Dallas offense can't keep up. Make Washington an 8* play.

The set-up: There weren't many bigger individually stories in NFL 2017 than the play of the Texans' DeShaun Watson. Just some of his highlights were his 4 TD passes and one rush TD in Week 4's 57–14 win over the Titans. He followed that performance on SNF vs. the Kansas City Chiefs. He had five TD passes in that  42-34 loss and in a Week 8 loss in Seattle (41-38), he posted his first career game with over 400 passing yards (also threw 4 TD passes). Watson threw 16 TDs in the month of October, setting the NFL record for most TD passes by a rookie in a calendar month. However, he suffered a torn ACL on a non-contact play during practice, which prematurely ended his rookie season on Nov. 2. The Texans are now 4-6 as they prepare to visit Baltimore to face the 5-5 Ravens with backup Tom Savage making his fifth start of the season. A win would give Baltimore a 6-5 record, tying them with the Bills and I'm pretty sure the Ravens would own the tie-breaker for the AFC's final wild card spot. A win would hardly be a surprise, as since head coach John Harbaugh took over the team in 2008, Baltimore has gone 11-1 in night games, the best mark in the NFL. The Ravens have also won nine consecutive prime-time matchups, also the longest streak in the NFL.

Houston: Savage started the first two games of 2017 for Houston, although he was replaced during the Week 2 game by Watson. He has lost the first two starts when Watson went down with the injury but he was better last week against the Arizona Cardinals, going 22 of 32 for 230 yards with two touchdowns and an interception in a 31-21 victory. head coach Bill O'Brien is confident that Savage is making strides. "I think he is getting better. I think the game on Sunday is probably the best game he has played since he has been playing for us," O'Brien said. "He does not have a ton of experience, so every game that he plays, it is really important for him to remember the things that went on during that game, so he can really use that experience to get better every single day and every game. I thought he did a good job of having a short memory on Sunday, and he really made some big plays for us to help us win the game." Rookie D'Onta Foreman rushed for a season-high 65 yards and two TDs before suffering a season-ending torn left Achilles last week but Lamar Miller (605 YR / 26 catches, including 3 TDs) is a dual threat who has scored three times over the past four games. WR DeAndre Hopkins is having a strong bounce-back season with 62 receptions and an NFL-best nine TD catches through 10 games. Houston's defense is an issue, allowing 26.2 PPG (29th).

Baltimore: The Ravens are off a 3-0 win at Green Bay but they managed only 219 yards of total offense in blanking Green Bay. QB Joe Flacco has thrown more interceptions (11) than touchdown passes (nine), as Baltimore features the NFL's worst passing attack with an average of 165.2 YPG. The lack of explosiveness is reflected in the fact that RB Javorius Allen (40) and veteran TE Ben Watson (39) are 1-2 on the team in receptions. RB Alex Collins went over 100 yards in a 40-0 rout of Miami on Oct. 26 but has been limited to 49 yards or fewer in three of the past four games. The Ravens are averaging 114.6 YPG on the ground (13th) and come in averaging 21.3 PPG (18th). However, the team's D forced five TOs at Green Bay and the pass D owns a league-high 16 interceptions. Baltimore is second in scoring D (17.1 PPG) and 7th in total D (306.0 YPG).

The pick: The Baltimore D has three shutouts this season but truthfully, it's now what it was in the Ray Lewis era. Flacco has not been able to throw downfield with any consistency and always relying on the defense to bail him out just may catch up with him and the Ravens. Savage is off his best outing of the season and note that the Texans are 3-1 ATS on the road in 2017. Baltimore is not used to being this big of a favorite, as the only team Baltimore has been favored over in this price range the last two-plus years has been against the Browns. Do I need to remind you of Cleveland's record? Take the points and make Houston an 8* play.

The set-up: The 5-5 Green Bay Packers' wild card hopes are quickly slipping away and they could sure use a win Sunday night at Heinz Field, after losing four of their last five games. The problem being, their opponents will be the 8-2 Pittsburgh Steelers, who have as won five straight games to tie the Patriots for the AFC's best record (Pittsburgh currently owns the tie-breaker for the No. 1 seed). This could have been a matchup of Super Bowl-winning QBs, Rodgers (one) vs. Roethlisberger (two) but instead Brett Hundley
makes his fifth straight start for the injured Rodgers.

Green Bay: The Packers are 1-3 with Hundley starting and he was awful in last Sunday's 23-0 home loss to the Ravens. He had four (three INTs and one fumble) of Green Bay's five TOs and comes into this game averaging 136.8 YPG passing with two TDs and seven INTs (QB rating of 63.3). The team's leading rusher (Aaron Jones) has just 370 yards and the Packers average only 102.4 rushing YPG (19th). Green Bay's depth at WR hasn't meant much with Hundley under center,,as the Packers are averaging 14.3 PPG in his four starts. The defense checks in averaging 18th in both points allowed (23.0 per) and yards allowed (340.1 per).

Pittsburgh: Ben Roethlisberger is not having one of his better years but he's off an excellent game in Week 11 (Thursday night at home vs. Tenn.), as he threw for 299 yards and four TDs. In guiding Pittsburgh to five straight wins, Big Ben has thrown for 1,328 yards with 10 TDs and a 102.7 passer rating. WR Antonio Brown leads the league in catches (70) and receiving yards (1,026) after hauling in 10 receptions and three scoring passes in the romp over Tennessee (six TDs on the season). Le'Veon Bell has had an uneven year (after a holdout) but is still the NFL's leading rusher with 886 yards. He also has 49 catches for another 308 yards. The Pittsburgh defense has not permitted more than 17 points during its five-game winning streak and currently ranks 2nd in points allowed (16.9 per) and 4th in total D (287.6 YPG).

The pick: The Steelers are not just 8-2 but four of their final six games are at home. Except for that inexplicable home loss to the Jags (30-9), Pittsburgh has averaged 31.7 PPG in its other three games at Heinz Field (all wins). The total remains low because of Pittsburgh's strong defense and Hundley's struggles at QB but I'm calling for this game to go OVER and will make that an 8* play.

The setup: The KC Chiefs were initially on pace to "run away" with the AFC West title, opening 5-0. However, KC has brought teams like the Chargers and Raiders back into the division hunt by dropping four of its last five games. The Chargers, who opened 0-4, have won five of six after their Thanksgiving Day win in Dallas and are now 5-6. The 4-6 Oakland Raiders now have a chance to get to 5-6 themselves, when they host the 3-7 Denver Broncos in Week 12. Neither the Chargers nor the Raiders can control what KC does but the Chiefs sure look vulnerable these days.

Denver: The Broncos hardly look like a team ready to break their six-game slide, after dropping a 20-17 home decision to the Cincinnati Bengals last Sunday. After giving up on Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler was handed the starting job and last week he was 23 of 42 for 254 yards with on TD and one INT. To no one's real surprise, he's been no better than Siemian, completing 53.0% of his 117 attempts for 164.8 YPG passing with three TDs and four INTs (65.5 QB rating). The job is now being handed to Paxton Lynch, the team's first round draft pick from 2016 (26th overall). He won't get much help from a running game that averages only 112.9 YPG (15th). Denver's "O' is now averaging a pathetic 18.3 PPG (24th) and while its once-feared defense is allowing an impressive 283.2 YPG (3rd) and the Broncos are allowing 25.9 PPG, which ranks 29th!

Oakland: The Raiders were a 'sexy' preseason pick to win the AFC but after 2-0 start, Oakland has won just two of eight games. Last Sunday's game in Mexico City against the Patriots was 'ugly,' as they fell 33-8. QB Derek Carr completed 28 of his 49 pass attempts for 237 yards, a touchdown and an interception, while Marshawn Lynch led Oakland’s ground attack with 67 yards. Carr has struggled with back issues (64.0% / 14-8 ratio / 88.2 QB rating) and Lynch has been a huge bust (390 YR), as Oakland ranks 27th with 89.7 YPG on the ground. The defense has sure not be an asset, allowing 24.7 PPG (22nd) on 367.1 YPG (21st).

The pick: Denver is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these two teams in Oakland. However, those were much different Bronco teams and the Raiders, although not as good as advertised in 2017, are still a team with some 'life!' Denver's last win came back on Oct. 1, 16-10 at home against these Raiders. However, the Broncos are 0-4 SU and ATS on the road in 2017, getting outscored 31.8-to-14.5 PPG! Make Oakland an 8* play.

The set-up: The Cleveland Browns remain the NFL's lone win-less team at 0-10 (lost last Sunday at home to the Jags 19-7) and will be on the road to face AFC North rival the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. The Bengals are 4-6, after snapping a three-game skid last week by edging the Broncos last Sunday 20-17 in Denver. The Bengals crushed the Browns 31-7 at Cleveland back in Week 4 (Cincy's first win after an 0-3 start) and despite the team's 4-6 mark, a wild card berth is not yet "out of the question."

Cleveland. The Browns are now 1-25 under head coach Hue Jackson and while the team's problems go much deeper than its head coach, one still has to wonder just how much losing will it take for the team to make a head coaching change? The Browns held the Jags to 19 points last Sunday but gained only 184 yards themselves, as QB Kizer threw two INTs and coughed up two fumbles (team had five giveaways). Kizer is completing just 52.5% with five TDs, 14 INTs (QB rating of 54.0) and six lost fumbles. Kizer's 22 rushing yards was a team-high, as the Browns offer their passing game little 'cover,' averaging 101.2 YPG on the ground (23rd). The Browns enter as the NFL's lowest scoring team (15.0 PPG). Their defense allows 313.7 YPG (ranks 8th) but the team also allows 25.9 PPG, which ranks 27th. That's indicative of the team owning the worst TO margin (minus-17) of any NFL team.

Cincinnati: The Bengals only scored 20 points and won by just three points at Denver but QB Andy Dalton, despite throwing for a modest 154 yards, had three TD passes. Dalton has re-invigorated the deep passing game with four TD passes of 18 yards or more over the past two games, after having just three through the first eight outings. A.J. Green has scored in consecutive weeks and ranks eighth in the NFL with 743 yards receiving and is tied for third with six TDs The Bengals' running game averages only 68.0 YPG (32nd!) and is a big reason Cincy ranks 32nd in total yards (265.6 per game), as well as 29th in scoring at 16.9 PPG. The defense is pretty solid, allowing 19.9 PPG (10th) on 323.0 YPG (12th).

The pick; Cleveland is just the third team in NFL history to start consecutive seasons at 0-10 but just like last year, there figures to be one week in which the Browns "break through." Maybe I'm "spitting into the wind" or "pulling on Superman's cape" but I;m taking the points and making the Browns a 10* play.

The set-up: AFC foes (hardly rivals, anymore) meet Sunday afternoon in NFL Week 12 NFL play at Foxborough, as the 8-2 New England Patriots host the 4-6 Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins were once 4-2 but last Sunday's 30-20 home loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaners was Miami's fourth in a row. The two AFC wild card teams are currently both 5-5, so the Dolphins only enter one game back but they are tied with four other teams plus the Chargers just moved to 5-6 with their Thanksgiving Day win at Dallas. The Pats raised some eyebrows with their 2-2 start, particularly with a defense which couldn't stop anyone, especially through the air. However, all is right in "New England Land" these days, as the Pats' 33-8 beatdown of the Oakland Raiders in Mexico City last Sunday was the team's sixth straight win. The Pats and Steelers are tied for the AFC's best record at 8-2 (Pittsburgh currently owns the tie-breaker).

Miami: Jay Cutler was back under center last Sunday for the Dolphins but he threw for just 83 yards, one TD touchdown and three INTs before leaving with a concussion. Matt Moore stepped in and completed 17 of 28 for 282 yards and a TD but to no avail (Miami lost by 10!). You tell me why Miami traded away Jay Ajayi, because he still owns 58 percent of Miami's current 804 rushing yards on the season? Moore will be under center for this one and surely won't get too much help from a running game averaging 80.4 YPG (28th) and is now without a quality RB. Miami's offense is averaging just 15.7 PPG (30th) on the season, while its defense is allowing 25.4 PPG (27th).

New England: Brady was just "being Brady" against the Raiders, completing 30 of 37 for 340 yards and three TDs touchdowns. He's completing 68.7 percent on the season with 22 TDs and just two INTs (in attempts), for a QB rating of 110.09. The Pats lead the NFL in passing yards (304.6 per game) and now rank fourth in scoring at 29.0 PPG. The defense has made huge strides in keeping teams out on the end zone, as after allowing 32.0 PPG through the team's first four contests, the Pats are down to allowing 20.3 PPG on the season, to rank 12th (12.5 PPG allowed during the six-game winning streak!).

The pick: The Dolphins come to Foxborough having lost eight in a row to the Pats in this venue (2-6 ATS) and there is no reason to believe Brady and Co. will have much trouble scoring here. However, while the Pats' D has cut down on its PPG, the team's defense is still giving up big chunks of yards and still ranks last in total yards allowed at 401.9 per. That can "catch up" to a defense and may just here, after Brady and Co. have established a 'cushion.' Make the Over an 8* play.

The set-up: The Giants had seemingly hit "rock bottom" with their 31-21 Week 10 loss at San Francisco (49ers entered that game 0-9) but lo and behold, the Giants won last Sunday 12-9 over the Chiefs in OT, as a double-digit home dog! The 2-8 Giants and NFC East rival Washington will face off in the nightcap of Thanksgiving's three-game NFL card. The Redskins come into the game having blew a 15-point lead in the final six minutes of an eventual 34-31 overtime loss to New Orleans last Sunday. The defeat dropped them to 11th place in the NFC playoff standings, two games out of the final playoff spot.

NY Giants: Can New York build off its upset of the Chiefs? Eli and the offense did little but the defense was a revelation. The Giants allowed an NFC-best 17.6 PPG in 2016 but entered last week's game having allowed 26.4 PPG to rank 28th in the NFL. The Kansas City Chiefs came in averaging 28.1 PPG but the Giants held them to just three FGs and QB Alex Smith, who came in with 18 TD passes and just one INT (in 293 pass attempts), was picked off three times! Eli Manning completed just 19 of 35 passes (54.3 percent) and failed to throw a TD pass for the first time since the season opener.

Washington: The Redskins no longer have any margin for error plus will need to get some help to make the playoffs. Last Sunday's loss to the Saints was the second in a row but it would be hard to blame QB Kirk Cousins. He threw for 322 yards and three TDs against New Orleans. It was his second-straight 300-plus-yard effort through the air (the fourth in his last six games) and he has 17 TDs and just five INTs on the season witha 101.8 QB rating. RB Samaje Perine added 117 rushing yards and a TD on 23 carries. It was Washington's defense which has cost the Redskins the last two weeks, allowing 38 points to the Vikings and 34 to the Saints.

The pick: Congrats to the Giants for the upset of the Chiefs but that New York offense looks inept. Sure, the defense was great last Sunday but it has struggled almost all season. Cousins is playing great (see above for a reminder) and let's not forget that Washington's back-to-back loses have come against the Vikings and Saints, two 8-2 teams. This just in...the 2-8 Giants are NOT in that class. Beginning with the Giants, none of the teams left on Washington's remaining schedule currently own a winning record. Just maybe, the postseason is not a pipe dream? Lay it here and make Washington a 10* play.

The set-up: The Los Angeles Chargers are off a 54-24 beatdown of the Buffalo Bills last Sunday but the win got them to just 4-6. The Dallas Cowboys are off a humiliating 37-9 loss to their division rival the Philadelphia Eagles, which came right after Dallas lost 27-7 in Atlanta. The Cowboys are now 5-5 and with star RB Ezekiel Elliott set to miss four more games, Dallas' playoff hopes are rapidly disappearing.The Chargers visit AT&T Stadium for the middle contest of the NFL's three-game Thanksgiving Thursday card. While this will be the Cowboys' 50th Thanksgiving contest, the Chargers will be participating in their first game on the holiday sinc) e 1969!

LA Chargers: The Chargers benefited from Buffalo's "ridiculous" (editorial comment) decision to give last Sunday's start to a QB so "unready for prime time" that Nathan Peterman threw five INTs in just 14 pass attempts, with the first of his five picks being returned for a TD. The Chargers' D later returned a fumble for a score, as the 54 points represented the Chargers' highest-scoring performance in Philip Rivers' 195 consecutive starts since 2006. Speaking of Rivers, he passed for 251 yards (on 20 of 32 passing) and two TDs, both to Keenan Allen who caught 12 passes for 159 yards. RB Melvin Gordon added 80 rushing yards and a TD. Los Angeles has recovered from its 0-4 start and views this contest as crucial as its deficit in the AFC West is just two games thanks to Kansas City dropping four of its last five games. "We're not way out of the division and not way out of the hunt," Rivers said. "That's exciting and encouraging. It shouldn't be hard to keep us focused on the task at hand. ... Just be fired up that we still have everything in front of us."

Dallas: The loss of "Zeke" is huge but the absence of LT Tyron Smith (Dak has been sacked 12 times the last two games!) plus LB Sean Lee sidelined have been no small factor in the in Cowboys getting outscored 64-16 in back-to-back losses. Prescott's solid start is beginning to unravel and the Cowboys are now tasked with scraping for a wild card spot with an injury-depleted team.

The pick: All of the above noted, remember the Cowboys were actually ahead 9-7 at the half vs. the Eagles, before succumbing 30-0 in the second half. The Chargers will not have the 'cake-walk' of last week and I expect to see the Dallas team we saw in the first half last Sunday vs. the Eagles, not the second half. The Cowboys have scored just 16 points without Elliott, scoring just one TD (on a 21-yard drive). The play here is an 8* on the Under.

The set-up: The Minnesota Vikings have won six in a row and now own a two-game lead in the NFC North as they head to Ford Field early Thursday afternoon to take on the Detroit Lions. The Lions have won three straight, beating the Packers, Browns and Bears to reach 6-4. That means the Lions need to win here or fall three games back of the Vikings, with just five games remaining. Detroit is tied with the Falcons and Seahawks (Atlanta would win the tie-breaker as of now, giving them the NFC's No. 6 seed) plus the Packers and Cowboys are lurking at 5-5..

Minnesota: The Vikings will sure remember the last time these teams met, as the Lions won 14-7 at Minnesota, with the Vikings losing three fumbles. However, the Vikes haven't lost since. Case Keenum has 'rescued' the offense, entering this contest completing 65.7% for 2,194 yards with 12 TDs and five INTs (he's 6-2 as a starter in 2017). The loss of rookie RB Dalvin Cook was supposed to all but 'kill' the running game but Murray (412 yards) and McKinnon (367 yards) have filled in well, with Minnesota entering this game averaging 123.3 YPG on the ground (8th). WR Adam Thielen has an NFC-best 916 receiving yards while his 16 catches of at least 20 yards has the 27-year-old tied with Pittsburgh's Antonio Brown for the league lead. However, the Vikings' defense has led the way in 2017, allowing 17.2 PPG (4th) on 290.5 YPG (5th).

Detroit: QB Matthew Stafford signed a five-year, $135 million deal in the summer to become the highest-paid player in the NFL. He's NOT the league's best player or QB but he's completed 63.1 percent for 2,760 yards with 19 TDs and five INTs (QB rating of 98.4). He's had multiple TD passes in the three straight wins and in seven of 10 this season. Detroit's much-maligned rushing game takes plenty of hits (80.8 YPG ranks 28th) but Ameer Abdullah (491 YR / 3.4 YPC / 3 TDs) has been a positive factor of late with three TDs (two rushing, one receiving) during the team's three-game winning streak. The Lions have averaged 31.7 points during their three-game winning streak and now rank 5th in the league, at 27.1 PPG.

The pick: Thi game is YUGE for the Lions (see above for implications) and as of late (like the team's 14-7 win at Minny in Week 4), the Lions have ground out numerous low-scoring wins over the Vikings these last four seasons. Detroit has won five of the last seven meetings, including three straight despite scoring a combined four TDs. The Lions have won four straight Thanksgiving Day games at Ford Field, helping them to make the playoffs in two of those seasons (had lost nine straight games on Thanksgiving prior to the streak). Stafford's been brilliant the past five Thanksgiving games, with 13 TD passes against just two interceptions. Make the Lions an 8* play.

The set-up: The Atlanta Falcons an are defending NFC champions but at 5-4 while playing in the NFC South with the 8-2 Saints and 7-3 Panthers, this MNF game at CenturyLink Field. in Seattle against the Seahawks is starting to look like a "must-win" contest. The Seahawks come in 6-3 and with the Rams losing at Minnesota on Sunday to fall to 7-3, Seattle can move back into a tie with LA for first-place in the NFC West. A Seattle loss would leave them at 6-4, tied with the Falcons and Lions for the NFC's final wild card spot (tie-breakers would decide 'the winner!'). Boston line is, this is an important game for all involved.

Atlanta: The Falcons hope to build off their 27-7 Week 10 win over the Cowboys. Matt Ryan was the league's MVP in 2016 (69.9% / 4,944 yards / 38-7 ratio / 117.1 QB Rating) but has been nowhere-near that good in 2017. He's completing 66.5% with a 13-8 ratio and a QB rating of 93.9. WR Julio Jones is also off his production of the last few seasons (has one TD catch!) and is battling ankle injuries. RB Devonta Freeman (515 YR / 4.4 YPC / 5 TDs) sustained a concussion against the Cowboys and is expected to miss here. However, backup Tevin Coleman rushed for a season-high 83 yards after Freeman was injured early last week (399 YR / 4.8 YPC on the season). Atlanta (21.9 PPG ranks 16th) is averaging a dozen points fewer than last season's league-leading average of 33.8 and had failed to score more than 17 in its last four losses before posting its highest point total since Week 3. Rayn and the passing offense ranks 11th overall with 251.6 YPG through the air. the defense checks in allowing 19.9 PPG (11th) on 311.9 YPG (8th).

Seattle: The Seahawks come in winners of five of their last six and surely will be seeking some revenge for last year's. Russell Wilson is completing 62.7 percent of his passes for 2,543 yards with 19 TDs and just six INTs. Wilson has two or more TD passes in six of his last seven games and has carried the offense, which is averaging 23.4 PPG (12th. Doug Baldwin has a team-high 54 catches while TE Jimmy Graham (39 catches) has six TDs in the past five games. RB Eddie Lacy is expected to return after sitting out one week with a groin injury but the ground game has been ineffective since rookie Chris Carson was lost for the season. Seattle enters averaging 100.7 YPG (23rd). On defense, Seattle lost Richard Sherman for the rest of the 2017 season in the team's last game vs. Arizona. This is the second time in back-to-back seasons the Seahawks have lost a member of the Legion of Boom for the year with an injury. Last year, safety Earl Thomas was shelved after breaking a leg in December. The defense never recovered. The 2017 version of the Legion of Boom allows 18.3 PPG (6th) on 318.9 YPG (10th).

the pick: The Seahawks lost last year in Atlanta 36-20 in the Divisional Round and with the team's D less than 100%, will likely need to score to win this all-important game tonight. Ryan has become the fastest quarterback to 40,000 yards passing in league history and as noted above, Russell Wilson has been carrying the Seattle offense for most of the season. Expect a shoot-out between these two QBs. Make the Over a 10* play.

The set-up: In the midst of Jerry Jones' feud with Roger Goodell, Week 11's SNF game will be played at AT&T Stadium ("Jerry's House") between the 8-1 Philadelphia Eagles and the 5-4 Dallas Cowboys. Philly's lone loss came back in Week 2 (at KC), so coming off a bye week, the Eagles enter on a seven-game winning streak (6-1 ATS). The Eagles have essentially 'put away' all teams in the NFC East except the Cowboys but a win here in Dallas would all but eliminate any chance the Cowboys would have of challenging Philly for the division title.

Philadelphia: Second-year QB Carson Wentz has quickly developed into "the real deal" in his sophomore season. He's completing 60.5 percent for 2,262 yards with 23 TDs and just five INTs, giving him a 104.1 QB rating. LeGarrette Blount is the leading Eagles rusher with 504 yards but the Eagles made a trade deadline deal with the Dolphins to acquire Jay Ajayi. He ran for 77 yards (on just eight carries) in his first game with Philly and note that he ran for 1,272 yards on 4.9 YPC and eight TDs in 2016 for Miami. Philly's ground game is averaging 136.8 YPG (4th) but it will be better with the addition of Ajayi, if for no other reason than the Eagles now have two No. 1-quality RBs in case of injury. TE Zach Ertz aims to return from a two-game absence due to an ailing hamstring and pick up where he left off. Ertz leads all NFC tight ends in receptions (43), yards (528) and TDs (six) this season. Off-season acquisition WR Jeffrey is also coming into his own with 34 catches (14.7 YPC) and five TD grabs. Philly's offense ranks second in scoring (31.4 PPG) and the defense has more than held its own, allowing 19.9 PPG (11th) on 315.9 YPG (10th).

Dallas: The irreplaceable Ezekiel Elliott finally began serving his 6-game suspension (five games left) last week in Atlanta. However, Elliott's absence was not the reason Dak Prescott was sacked eight times by Atlanta's D, including an amazing six solo sacks by DE Adrian Clayborn. The Cowboys ran for 107 yards (5.1 YPC) but Dak threw for just 176 yards. Throw in the lost yardage from all the sacks, and the Cowboys had just 233 yards for the game, while scoring seven points. Prescott has thrown for 1,994 yards with 16 TDs and just four INTs (no "sophomore jinx" here) but the team can't replace Elliott's 783 rushing yards and seven scores. Dez Bryant is tops in receiving for the Cowboys with 478 yards and four TDs on 42 catches. However, he's been slowed by an ailing knee which has limited him to just 39 yards receiving in two of his last three games. The Dallas D is middle-of-the-pack, allowing 22.8 PPG (17th) on 325.9 YPG (15th).

The pick: I just don't see Dallas slowing Wentz and Co, as the Cowboys' pass D allows 66.6% completions and has only five INTs (on 323 pass attempts), while allowing 16 TD passes. Philly's running was among the best in the NFL and it's now added Ajayi. These are desperate times for Dallas' playoff hopes and the Cowboys won't go down without a fight. However, they'll have to score to win this one. Make the Over an 8* play.

The set-up: The Raiders were 12-4 last season and after opening 2-0 in 2017, were being touted as "the real deal," a genuine AFC title contender. In contrast the defending champs stumbled to a 2-2 start and alarmingly, had allowed an average of 32.0 PPG. That's on the heels of New England allowing an NFL-low 15.6 PPG in 2016. However, as the two teams get set to meet in this Week 11 game at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, the Raiders check in at just 4-5, while the Pats are 7-2, having once-again reminded all just why the Brady and Belichick combo has won five Super Bowl titles together.

New England: Brady has been dominant ever since a poor Week 1 effort, entering this contest having completed 67.3 percent of his passes with 19 TDs, just two INTs (in 343 pass attempts) to earn a QB rating of 108.3 (the Pats rank first with 301.6 YPG through the air and 4th in scoring at 28.6 PPG). Brady would like more help from a running game that averages just 109.7 YPG (16th) but as always, he seems to "make do." However, what Brady really appreciates is the defense's return to form. The naysayers were out in full force saying that while Belichick may be a genius, he could not get the team's awful defense turned around with just a snap of his fingers. Well, I'm not sure what he did but numbers don't lie. During the Pats' five-game winning streak, the team's D has held opponents to 13.4 PPG!

Oakland: The Raiders promptly lost four in a row after that 2-0 start and while they enter this game having won two of three, the wins have come by one point over KC (winning TD on the game's final play) and by three points over a Miami team which is on a three-game slide getting outscored 112-to-45! Carr's injured back cost him one full game but after a three-game stretch in which he averaged 144 yards passing, he has aired it out over the past three games, throwing for 1,030 yards with five TDs and three INTs. Marshawn Lynch, whose last game against New England ended with a rush to the one-yard line in Super Bowl XLIX, returned from a one-game suspension to rush for 57 yards and two TDs in a 27-24 win at Miami. However, he's been a bust, with just 323 yards on the season (3.8 YPC), including three games in which he hasn't run for as much as 20 yards! Defensively, the Raiders are allowing 23.8 PPG (22nd) and not only are they tied for last in sacks (13), they have yet to record an interception in 288 pass attempts against them. Are you kidding?

The pick: Sometimes, we can over-think things. I will try NOT to make that mistake here. Brady is playing like he's 30-years-old and in 343 pass attempts, he's been picked off twice. He will face an Oakland pass D in this game which is allowing a league-high 71.2% completion, while allowing 14 TDs without a single INT in 288 pass attempts. Opposing QBs have a 110.5 rating against Oakland, the highest in the NFL. Add in that Oakland's pass rush has an NFL-low 13 sacks and just how does anyone expect the Raiders to stop Brady? Can they outscore him? Why? After all, New England is allowing 13.4 PPG during its five-game winning streak. One last thing. This is a neutral-site game but how does it hurt that the Pats went 8-0 SU on the road last season and are 4-0 this season, outscoring opponents 30.0-to-16.8 PPG! Lay the points and make the Pats a 10* play.

The set-up: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Miami Dolphins were supposed to open the 2017 season in Week 1 but Hurricane Irma had other ideas. Ironically enough, both teams were scheduled for a Week 11 bye week, so here we are. The Bucs and Dolphins will meet Sunday in Miami Gardens at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday, although both teams' seasons are just about 'toast.' The Bucs opened 2-1 but then lost five in a row, before finally ending their slide with 15-10 win over the Jets last Sunday (Bucs are currently just 3-6 in the 'tougher than nails' NFC South). As for the Dolphins, a 4-2 start now seems 'light-years' away after Miami has not just lost three straight (falling to 4-5 in a division with the 7-2 Pats), but the Dolphins have been dominated in all three losses, getting outscored 112-45!

Tampa Bay: QB Jameis Winston sat out last week's win with shoulder issues, replaced by veteran journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick, who passed for 187 yards with one TD and one interception. RB Martin is back from his suspension but has averaged only 50.8 YPG rushing in his six games. Tampa Bay averages only 82.8 YPG on the ground (28th) on the season. The Bucs are averaging only 19.2 PPG on the season, ranking 22nd. The defense is also worse than average, allowing 23.1 PPG (20th) on 376.3 YPG (27th).

Miami: The Dolphins' defense has been ripped for 112 points in the team's three-game slide (37.3 PPG) but through the team's nine games, Miami's offense ranks dead-last (32nd) in scoring at 15.2 PPG. Cutler has not been the answer at QB, as Miami ranks 29th in passing YPG at 194.9 YPG. With the trade of RB Ajayi at the end of October, 64 percent on Miami's rushing offense is now in Philadelphia. Kenyan Drake has run for 176 yards the last two weeks (taking over for Ajayi) but Miami enters averaging 80.1 YPG on the ground, which ranks 30th. Is it good or bad news that Drake accounted for Miami' first rushing TD of the 2017 season last Sunday? Hard to believe but true.

The pick: Ryan Fitzpatrick is not a full-time starter but "in relief," he's more than serviceable. Currently, he is not a drop-off from Winston, whose confidence had eroded even before his shoulder injury. Miami's defense is now as bad as it's defense. Make Tampa Bay an 8* play.

The set-up: The Kansas City Chiefs and New York Giants were both playoff teams in 2016 but when the Chiefs visit MetLife Stadium on Sunday afternoon, the Chiefs come in with an AFC West-leading record of 6-3, while the Giants take the field an abysmal 1-8. However, let's also note that the Chiefs come into this contest just 1-3 after opening 2017 at 5-0. Then again, most feel as if the Giants hit rock bottom last Sunday, falling to the then 0-9 Niners by the score of 31-21!

Kansas City: Alex Smith's "career season" continues, as he enters having completed 69.6 percent with 18 TDs and just one INT in 293 pass attempts (QB rating is 113.9). Rookie RB Hunt has cooled off but he comes into the team's 10th game with 800 yards rushing (5.2 YPC) and four TDs, along with 32 catches for another two TDs. TE Kelce (51 catches / 5 TDs) and WR Hill (40 catches / 4 TDs), are also quality contributors. Maybe KC would have a win or two more if the team's defense wasn't giving up 3903.YPG, which ranks 30th. That said, KC does rank better in points allowed, at 23.1 PPG which ranks 19th.

NY Giants: The Giants season began poorly and it's never gotten better. Eli may be making his 209th consecutive start at QB in this one but it sure feels like his time as the Giants' No. 1 QB is coming to end. Losing OBJ and Marshall to injury surely didn't help, nor has the fact that the Giants have almost no running game, averaging 89.8 YPG (25th). Eli's numbers aren't awful (64.6% with 14 TDs and 6 INTs), especially considering the circumstances but the bottom line is the bottom line. The Giants are scoring only 16.7 PPG, which ranks 29th. Defensively, after allowing an NFC-best 17.6 PPG, the Giants have allowed 26.4 PPG to rank 28th in the NFL.

The pick: The Chiefs should play well coming out of their bye week (Reid-coached teams are 16-2 in games following a week off!) but KC has looked like a different team since that 5-0 start. Smith is still not turning the ball over but Hunt seems to have "hit a wall,' averaging only 47.8 YPG rushing in the team's 1-3 run. The Giants have yet to score more than 24 points in any game in 2017 and after last week's loss to the 49ers, seem like a 'lost' team. Make the Under an 8* play.