New England Patriots @ New York Jets

Mac Jones has lived up to what he did in college so far. Many thought he was going to be a bust, but the most accurate passer in CFB history definitely looked solid in week 1. If they can generate 393 total yards again, I guarantee that they'll score more than 16 this time.

Despite Zach Wilson looking good in his debut, the Jets lost thier opener against their old QB in Sam Darnold in week 1. Their defense wasn't the strongest as they gave up 381 yards of offense in the loss. Dating back to last season, NYJ has seen the total go OVER in 4 of thier last 6 games against oppoents from the AFC. 

I know both of these teams have rookies starting, but with the two of them off UNDER's to open the season up, I expect a tough fought high scoring battle between these guys today. Ride the OVER.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Off a "roller coaster ride" Monday Nighter in week 1, the Raiders will have to go up against one of the best, if not the best defenses in the league without thier star running back in Josh Jacobs. Vegas hasn't had much success against Pittsburgh either as they are only 1-4 in their last five games played on the road at Heinz Field.

For the Steelers, they made Josh Alllen look human and took it to Buffalo in week 1. That win made them 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in the month of September. I expect RB Najee Harris to run right through this Raiders defense that is experiencing a lot of injuries as of late.

Both off wins, both teams will be looking for that 2-0 start. But I believe that this stacked Steelers team will be too much to handle for the Raiders without Jacobs on Sunday. Take PITT.

NY Giants @ Washington

We played against the Giants in Week 1. They only scored 13 points. Washington wasn't much better. The Football Team managed just 16. Both games were comfortable under winners.

The Giants are 9-0 to the under after an ATS loss. Giants also 6-0 to the under after allowing 350 or more yards. WFT 4-0 to the under after a loss. Twenty of the last 28 meetings have produced unders. 

Two struggling offenses. Two capable defenses. A low-scoring division rivalry. Take the Under.

Baltimore Ravens @ Las Vegas Raiders

The Thursday Night prime-time Opener between the Cowboys and the Buccaneers went well over the posted number.

The Sunday Night prime-time matchup between the Rams and the Bears also sailed over the posted number.

Now on Monday night we have a couple of high-scoring AFC teams read to battle it out and everything points to these high-scoring prime-time games continuing.

The Ravens averaged 29.3 PPG last year. The Raiders averaged 27.1. Baltimore was one of the best defensively last season in conceding only 18.9 PPG, but the Raiders were one of the worst in allowing 29.9.

The Raiders and Ravens have played over the total the last five times they've met. Expect that high-scoring streak to continue here in their first game of the 2021/22 season. The play is the over the total 10*

Chicago Bears @ Los Angeles Rams

Two teams that were pretty good defensively last year, and inconsistent on the offensive end collide in LA tonight. 

The bottom line for this one for me though is that each starts a new quarterback in a new system and I think that despite both being veteran's, that it'll take time for both Andy Dalton of the Bears and Matthew Stafford of the Rams to form chemsitry with their respective offenses. 

Each side will be focused on establishing the run while on offense. We can expect a heavy pass rush from each defense as well.

When we consider what each of these team's game-plan will be in Week 1, we have to conclude that the under is the correct call.

Denver Broncos @ NY Giants

Teddy Bridgewater gets the nod as the starter for the Broncos week 1. Although he's been a bit shaky thoughout his career, I believe that Denver should be the right place for him. Courtland Sutton is back, and with a sharppened up defense, this Broncos team could be strong.

While the Giants picked up Kenny Golladay, they haven't shown us much yet. Last year, they finished 6-10 and I expect something similar this season. Dating back to last season. NYG is also a sad 1-7 in theur last 8 games played against teams from the AFC. 

Expect the young Broncos team to come out with fire off the Opening kickoff here. Take Denver ML.

Seattle Seahawks @ Indianapolis Colts

Off a wildcard loss to theur divisional rival Rams, the Seahawks are coming back stronger than ever this season. Always dangerous Russell Wilson threw for 40+ TDs last season as well as rushing for a few. This year, look for Metcalf and Lockett to both reach the 1000 yard mark once again.

The Colts have been all over the place this offseason. Trading for Carson Wentz. Wentz then gets hurt and has to go through surgery. Not only that, but when he was at the end of his recovery he tested positive for Covid. Even through all of that, he was named starter and I expect him to be  a bit rusty in this one. Don't forget, offensvie lineman Quenton Nelson also had to undergo surgery this offseason. The Colts are also a terrible 0-7 in their L7 games played in Week 1. 

Having said all that, the Seahawks are by far the healthier team and I expect another great season from them. Look for them to involve Chris Carson a lot this season as well. Take the Seahawks +2.5 with ease.

Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Cowboys are a different team with Prescott behind center. They can trade punches with any team on offense, even the defending Super Bowl Champions.

The Buccaneers were clearly peaking at the right time in January/February. We're into September now. They can't be expected to immediately perform at the level they were. 

It's possible that one team could pull away late in the second half but I expect this game to remain close most of the way. The line is generous. Take the points with the Cowboys (1st Half)

The set-up: What's the first thing that comes to mind when you think of Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes. Obviously for most it would be "offense." No question about it, these two QB's were once a couple of the most prolific in the league. Both offensively and defensively, these teams are pretty evenly matched. With two whole weeks to prepare and scheme though, I think these defenses are the ones that will benefit the most. 

The pick: This is a big game for both teams. The Bucs want to become the first team to win a Super Bowl on their own field. Brady wants to win another Super Bowl to add to his legacy. The Chiefs are trying to become the first team to repeat in 16 years. These teams met in Tampa in Week 12 and the Chiefs won that game 27-24. But note that KC took the foot off the gas in that one, allowing 14 fourth-quarter points. Brady took advantage of a suspect Green Bay defense, but he already struggled once against KC this season and I expect that to happen again here. In my opinion, this one sets up as a defensive "chess match," not a "shootout." 

This a 9* play on the UNDER Chiefs/Bucs.

The set-up: I played on the Chiefs in the AFC Conference Championship and I play on the Bucs in the NFC Conference Championship. These teams are similar in many respects, but I think that the Chiefs are the better overall team through all three phases. Better QB and offense. Equal defense and better special teams. Yes, Tom Brady has a plethora of experience at this level, and while they've looked very good to reach this point, team chemistry and this most elite level is in question in my opinion. Not so for Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and this deep Chiefs offense. 

The pick: This will truly be a passing of the torch moment for the NFL. I'm not going to break down individual stats, because I'm not basing this pick entirely on stats. As I said, these teams have similar numbers. They're really good in almost every department. Honestly, it wouldn't be difficult to write a convincing argument for either team to win this game straight up, but as I also mentioned the intangibles that KC brings to the table here, and along with Reid, who is a master when he has a week or more to prepare for a game. I repsect Brady and I think the Bucs are for sure the best team in the NFC.

The is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Kansas City Chiefs.

The set-up: Whether Patrick Mahomes plays or not, I think the Chiefs are deep and talented enough to pull off a victory here at home over the Bills. Buffalo is now definitely in unchartered territory. With Josh Allen under center, this Bills team has a shot at competing with any team in the league. Buffalo's weakness this year is definitely on the defensive side of the ball though and I think that'll be its downfall finally here in this difficult road venue.

The pick: The Chiefs have had lapses in concentration this year (lost at home to the Raiders), but overall the reason they eclipsed their team season win total for an eighth straight year was because of an improved defense. KC is loaded with offensive and defensive talent and I like Andy Reid to have a masterful plan cooked up here to deal with the potential of Mahomes being sidelined. The game of Football is about more than just one player obviously and in this case, I think that the defending champs still have more than enough pieces in place to pull off another victory and advance to the Super Bowl. I'm laying the points!

The is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the KC Chiefs.

The set-up: Is Aaron Rodgers the better QB in this matchup? At this point of their careers, I'd say that's the case. That said, on any given night, clearly Tom Brady has enough left in the tank to beat any team or person on the planet. This game isn't going to be decided though by Brady and Rodgers. Night in and night out, we almost always know what we can expect from these two legends. I think each will be on top of his game. For me, this one is going to be decided by defense, special teams and the Bucs superior run game. The Rams ran out of gas last weekend, but the Bucs come to town full of energy and on a mission. 

The pick: Note as well that the Packers are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after allowing 20 points or less in a SU/ATS home victory in their last outing. I think the Bucs can control this game through all three phases and while I do expect an outright victory, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. 

The is an 8* ROUT on the Bucs.

The set-up: This is a big game for two legendary QB's. Drew Brees is reportedly retiring at the end of the season. The Saints won both games over Tampa Bay in the regular season, so Tom Brady will definitely be out for some final revenge here now that the playoffs are here. I think that both Brady and Brees are going to be the main focal points in tomorrow's summaries, as I'm expecting an old fashioned shootout in New Orleans on Sunday night. 

The pick: Note as well that Tampa has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after scoring 30 or more points in a SU/ATS road victory in its last outing, while the Saints have seen the total go "over" the number in 14 of their last 21 after allowing ten or less points in a SU/ATS victory in their last game. Considering the circumstances listed above, I do indeed feel this number is a little low.

This is an 8* ULTIMATE TOTAL on the OVER Bucs/Saints.

The set-up: The Browns played to a high-scoring victory on the road in Pittsburgh, but I believe they'll have a much more difficult time producing that same energy here in this difficult road venue. The Browns played terrible defensively last time out and the last thing they'll want to do here in my estimation, is to turn this into another "track meet" and try to hang with Patrick Mahomes and the defending champs on their own field. That's never going to work. It worked against Pittsburgh, but if the Browns are going to pull off another unlikely upset, they'll have to run the ball first while on offense, while hoping to win the field position battle as well. 

The pick: KC has an underrated defensive unit this year. It's been burned a few times, but overall the Chiefs once again exceeded their season win total and that was due in large part to an improved defensive unit. I'll point out as well that Cleveland has seen the total go "under" the number in 11 of its last 17 road games after scoring 40 or more points in a SU/ATS victory in its last outing. From my calculations, this number is indeed a tad high.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Browns/Chiefs.

The set-up: The Ravens finally got over the hump in Tennessee in their Wildcard matchup, revenging last year's Playoff loss, as well as a regular season setback. The Ravens have been consistently inconsistent all season though and while the managed the win and cover on the road last time out, I think they'll have a much more difficult time trying to do that a second time. The Bills have improved dramatically on the defensive side of the ball and this Ravens' offense is suddenly struggling to put points on the board. 

The pick: These teams are similar in many respects, but the way that these two starting QB's have played this season, I'm giving the big nod to Josh Allen over LaMar Jackson. Allen has been getting the job done in evvery respect this year and I expect him to step up here at home and deliver. Instead of laying the points though, I'm going to recommend playing the home side on the very reasonable money-line price. 

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Bills MONEY-LINE.

The set-up: Green Bay will look to get out and put the Rams' talented defense on its heels from the get-go. Green Bay will dial up the pressure and try to get an early lead and LA is going to then be forced to play from behind. The Rams are intimately familiar with the Seahawks, but not quite at all with Green Bay. In fact, these teams haven't even played against each other since 2018. Green Bay was 7-1 at home SU and 5-3 ATS. The Packers guaranteed home field advantage with a resounding 35-16 win at Chicago, facing a stiff Bears defense, very similar to this Rams' unit. From a situational standpoint, in my opinion this one definitely sets up as more of a "shootout" than a "chess match." 

The pick: I'll point out as well that LA has seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight "unders" (has now played to four straight "unders" after beating the Hawks last weekend), while Green Bay has seen the total eclipse the number in 14 of its last 21 home games after scoring 30 or more points in a SU/ATS victory in its last outing, while also playing with two weeks off. This number is low in my opinion.

This is an 8* SPECIAL TOTAL on the OVER Rams/Packers.

The set-up: I got down early and have an unfavorable line, as shortly after taking Cleveland, it was announced that few players, including its head coach, had COVID. The bulk of Cleveland's talent will be on the field of play and clearly the Browns will be out for an outright upset here. These two teams know each other intimately. The Steelers stumbled down the stretch, but managed to win in Week 17. Pittsburgh has a couple COVID issues as well. 

The pick: The Browns have an offense which can keep pace with any team in the league. Cleveland's defense is also underrated in my opinion. I'm expect this one to come down to whichever of these division rivals has its hands on the ball last, so in that scenario, I'm definitely grabbing up the points!

This is a 9* BLOOD-BATH on the Cleveland Browns.

The set-up: Chicago got crushed 35-16 in its regular season finale by Green Bay. The Bears only averaged 23.3 PPG, while conceding just 23.1. Chicago did better than most expected, but I think it'll struggle to score in this difficult road venue and against this vastly improved Saints' defense. 

The pick: New Orleans averaged 30 PPG, while allowing just 21.1. This is one of the better defenses that the Saints have gone up against this year and when they won in Chicago earlier in the season, it was by a score of 26-23 in OT. I look for New Orleans to masterfully control this contest and the clock and I expect this one to fall "under" once it's all said and done.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Bears/Saints.

The set-up: Baltimore is out to get revenege here against a team that it's had difficulties with over the last few years. The Titans upset the 14-1 Ravens in last year's playoffs 28-12. I'm having a hard time getting a firm read on a side in this one, but all signs point to this one being more of a "chess match," in my opinion, rather than a "shootout." And that's because I expect to see a heavy dose of the run game from each side while on offense today. 

The pick: These team's also faced off back on November 22nd and Tennessee managed a 30-24 victory, but that came in overtime. These are admittedly a couple of the highest-scoring teams in the league, but I'll also point out that Baltimore has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 12 road games in trying to revenge an OT home loss in which it allowed 30 or more points in. This number is a little high in my opinion.

This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Ravens/Titans.

The set-up: Tampa Bay has a great defense and it's offense is dynamic and experienced as well. The issue for Bruce Arians at times is making all those pieces work together at the same time. Washington finished the regular season 7-9, but it closed the regular season by going 4-1. The success of Tampa Bay though will 100% come down to how well Tom Brady does against Washington's stiff defensive front. 

The pick: Tampa has many injured as well, as note that questionable for Saturday are Carlton Davies, LeSean McCoy and Jason Pierre-Paul. Mike Evans is listed as probable. Cornerback Carlton Davis, linebacker Devin White, and defensive tackle Jeremiah Ledbetter are all out. I can't see Tampa holding onto a big lead, or running up the score if it has a lead late. I'm banking on the home side doing enough to earn a comfortable cover in this one. Grab the points.

This is an 8* DESTROYER on the Washington Football Team.

The set-up: These teams split their regular season games, with LA winning 23-16, and the Hawks reciprocating at home in a 20-9 win in the regular season finale. Interestingly, in both games the Rams won the time of possession. The Rams have the playoff defense to keep this one close late, conceding only 18.5 PPG. Jared Goff has the ability to make plays and this Rams' run game can eat up clock as well. 

The pick: Seattle has one advantage here, Russell Wilson. Granted, that's a big advantage, but I think LA's pass rush is formidable enough to keep him in check like when these team's met the firs time (really, Wilson was pretty much contained in Week 17 as well.) I think this one comes down to the wire, so I'm grabbing the points.

This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on the LA Rams.

The set-up: The Colts have the offense and the defense to hang with Buffalo. The Bills weakness is their ground game. Their defense wasn't great all year, but it did well down the stretch of the regular season. The Colts finished second in the NFL in stopping the run, so the task for the visiting side will be to get to Josh Allen, who is admittedly having a great year. 

The pick: The Bills weakness defensively was stopping the run, so expect to see a heavy-dose of Colts' RB Jonathan Taylor, who is as versatile running the ball, as he is catching it. I think experience does matter at this point, so Rivers has a small advantage in that department. I think this one comes right down to the wire and therefore, I'm grabbing the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Indianapolis Colts.

The set-up: New Orleans is the No. 2 seed in the NFC, one game behind Green Bay, who holds the tie-breaker after beating the Saints earlier in the year. New Orleans is tied with Seattle at 11-4 and it holds the tiebreaker over the Hawks. Carolina won't be in the playoffs, as it's 5-10. The Panthers though relished the role of playing spoiler last week, snapping a three-game slide with a competitive 20-13 win over Washington. 

The pick: Teddy Bridgewater has one last chance to impress today for the Panthers and he'll try to deal a blow to the Saints playoff positioning and take advantage of a team which will be without its entire starting RB group. I think New Orleans gets caught flat-footed here and I like the home side to deliver. The outright is possible, but grab as many points as you can.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on the Carolina Panthers.

The set-up: The Patriots are eliminated. Cam Newton is going to be the only motivated player on the field for New England today. The Patriots have nothing to play for over the last two games, and they can't even really play spoiler here, as Buffalo has already clinched. Instead, I give the Bills the huge edge in being the more "motivated" team in this matchup. Buffalo won the first matchup and after being the "red headed step-child" of the division for so long, and after suffering so many beatdowns at the hands of the Pats over the years, I look for this visiting organization to lay down a can of whoop ass that none of us have witnessed in quite a while. Buffalo is simply the better team in every respect and I don't see it having any sort of letdown in enemy territory today. 

The pick: It's interesting to note as well that New England is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five games played in the month of December, while Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory. With a chance to humiliate the Patriots on their home field, I look for the Bills to do just that!

This is a 10* AFC EAST BEST OF THE BEST on the Buffalo Bills.

The set-up: The first game between these teams went well "under" the number in the Eagles' 23-9 home victory. Ben DiNiucci was under center for Dallas in that one, but Andy Dalton will be directing the Cowboys tonight. Philly has gotten a spark from rookie QB Jalen Hurts, and while many may think this'll be a classic "shootout," I expect this instead to be a very tight, lower-scoring battle. Philly's defense is definitely superior, but Dallas has come a long way in that department over the last three weeks. I expect each offense to be committed to the run throughout as well. If this was Week 10, I'd expect more of a shootout, but in this crucial end of season contest, this one has the feel of a "chess match," rather than "offensive fireworks."

The pick: From a trend-based standpoint it sets up well for a lower-scoring contest, as note that Philly has seen the total go "under" in four of its last six on the road. Also note that six of these team's last eight in the series have fallen below the posted number as well. For all the reasons listed above, look for this one to fall "under" the posted number once it's all said and done.

This is a 10* NFC EAST TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Eagles/Cowboys.

The set-up: Baltimore has a "cream puff" final regular season game at Cincinnati and I think it gets caught looking ahead to that contest and takes the foot off the gas in the second half of this game. The Giants on the other hand come in absolutely desperate, needing a win or they'll be eliminated from contention. Last week they lost by 14 points to the Browns. QB Daniel Jones is expected to return. 

The pick: Baltimore crushed Jacksonville 40-14 last weekend. The Ravens are 9-4 and are back on track, but consistency has plagued LaMar Jackson and company all season long. If the Ravens have a lead in the second half, there's no need for them to run up this score, instead they'll be trying to avoid mistakes and injuries and kill the clock. New York will be aiming for the end zone on every drive and because of that, I expect this game to be much closer than what this spread would suggest.

This is a 9* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the New York Giants.

The set-up: Will Kansas City win this game? Of course. Can Atlanta make it interesting? I don't think it'll even bother here. The big question though is, will the Chiefs run up this score in the second half if they come out of the break with a lead? With a home game against already eliminated LA Chargers to end the season, there's no reason at all for the Chiefs to run up this score. KC's entire game plan will be to go up early, and then to control the clock, avoid injuries and get ready to finish off this strange season. Julio Jones is done for the year for ATL, and I just can't see at all where any sort of motivation will be coming from this "dome" team today. Situationally, this one sets up great as a lower-scoring affair in my opinion. 

The pick: Note as well that the "under" has hit in four of ATL's last five on the road as well. KC's defense is underrated and I think it'll grab the main headline in tomorrow's KC summaries. This number is a tad high.

This is an 8* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Falcons/Chiefs.

The set-up: I'm primarily a situational handicapper and I think this one sets up well for the home side to pull off the minor upset at home this weekend. The Raiders are in "do or die" mode, as a loss here will eliminate them from contention. Miami also needs victories to keep its playoff hopes alive, but I think that's asking a lot of this young team on the road today, especially with a rookie QB. Derek Carr and the Raiders have a capable offense and I expect to see Gruden have his team prepared today. 

The pick: I'll point out as well that Las Vegas is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games as an underdog in the +2.5 to +4.5 points range. I like the desperate home side to dig deep and deliver on Saturday night.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Las Vegas Raiders.

The set-up: The Bucs are still in contention for a playoff spot, but they haven't clinched yet. Tampa is dealing with injury issues right now, but with a Bears loss this weekend, the Bucs will clinch. The only motivation that Detroit has today is try and play spoiler for Tampa here, as it was eliminated officially from contention last weekend. And frankly, the thought of disturbing the Bucs playoff chances isn't going to be any sort of motivating factor whatsoever for this Lions team, who I think will quickly throw in the white towel after the first quarter. 

The pick: The Bucs are one of the better defensive clubs, allowing just 22.9 PPG, No. 1 against the run by allowing just 77.8 PPG. The Lions are a throw-first team anyways, but it makes their already one-dimensional offense, even more so. I think Tampa goes up early, but then runs this clock out as it tries to avoid any more injuries. This number is a tad high.

This is a 9* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Bucs/Lions.

The set-up: This is a big game for both teams. The Vikes need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive after a 33-27 loss to the Bears last Sunday. Clearly the last thing that the Vikings want to do is try to turn this into a track meet with the Saints, instead they'll be leaning heavily on RB Dalvin Cook from start to finish. The Vikes have lost two in a row and they're basically eliminated already, as they'll have to win their last two games and get plenty of outside help. One game at a time though. Kirk Cousins was decent this year with 29 TD's and 13 INT's, but it was Cook who led the league in rushing. 

The pick: Minnesota is poor defensively and the the Saints are one of the best on the offensive side of the ball, but I look for the Saints to also lean heavily on their run game today as they try to break a three-game slide. Brees returned from COVID in last week's 32-29 loss to the Chiefs and while New Orleans was the first team to clinch a playoff spot, it still has a chance to lock up the NFC South. I think Alvin Kamara will play a big part in the home side's offense today. The big difference this year though for New Orleans has been its defensive play, as outside of the Chiefs loss, the Saints had been fantastic over the previous five games (21.2 PPG conceded on average.) Look for both teams to run the ball first and then expect this total to indeed stay under once it's all said and done.

This is a 10* TOTAL GRINCH-BUSTER on the UNDER Vikes/Saints.

The set-up: Pittsburgh's suddenly lost two in a row and the hapless 2-10-1 Bengals would love nothing more than to kick this division rival while it's down. Especially on National television. The Steelers most recently fell 26-15 to Buffalo, while the Bengals lost 30-7 to the Cowboys. When these teams played on November 15th, the Steelers scored the 36-10 win and I expect a similar final combined score here as well. Pittsburgh is averaging 26.9 PPG, and the Bengals are allowing 26.0 on average. 

The pick: Neither team has played to many "overs," this year, but the circumstances each side finds itself in definitely lends itself to more of a "shootout" than a "chess match." Also note that Pittsburgh has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after back-to-back SU losses, while Cincinnati has seen the total go "over" in ten of its last 16 after scoring seven or less points in a SU/ATS loss in its previous outing. This number is indeed a tad low, the play is the "over."

This is a 10* DIVISIONAL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Steelers/Bengals.

The set-up: Are the Rams the better team? Of course. Is this a trap game for the home side? I definitely think that's the case as well. The Jets are 0-13. The odds that they'll go 0-16 are greater than if they'll go 1-16. Do you think New York could possibly be happy at this point? Yes, the Jets are planning for next year, but no team wants to go winless. The Rams on the other hand have a game at Seattle next weekend, followed by a home matchup vs. the Cardinals to end the regular season. In my opinion, this is definitely a "trap" for the home side and I think the Rams will fall right into it.

The pick: Additionally note that the Rams are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after holding their previous opponent to three or less points in a SU/ATS victory. There's no need for LA to run up the score in the second half of this contest whatsoever. Instead, if it does have a lead, it'll look to kill clock, limit turnover and injuries and get ready to face the Seahawks. No outright, but closer than expected. 

This is a 9* BLOOD-BATH on the New York Jets.

The set-up: These teams are moving in opposite directions. San Francisco has dropped two straight and with a loss today, it'll be officially eliminated from contention. It's been an uphill battle for the 49ers this year, who come to town without their starting QB and several other key players on both sides of the ball. With the rest of the division healthy and playing well, I think the 49ers throw in the white flag here early. 

The pick: Dallas snapped a two-game slide with a 30-7 win over the Bengalas last weekend. The Cowboys are in such a weak division, that if they win today and the other three teams lose, then they're going to be back in the drivers seat (and that's a very real possibility, as Philly is in Arizona, the Giants are at home to a smoking hot Browns team, and Washington is at home to the Seahawks without Alex Smith under center. The Cowboys have plenty of talent on the offensive side of the ball and backup Andy Dalton finally seems to be getting up to speed. The Dallas defense looked better last weekend too and now it faces another offense with its back up QB under center. This one has blowout written all over it in my opinion, but may as well grab the points.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Dallas Cowboys.

The set-up: Miami is the No. 7 seed. Buffalo has now clinched the AFC East, but the Fish still have plenty to play for here. Most recently Miami fell 33-27 to Kansas City. New England looks to regroup after falling 24-3 to the Rams last Thursday, it's now 6-7 overall. The Patriots have been hit or miss all year and last week they were definitely a "miss." New England will now need to run the table, while also getting outside help if it has any shot at making the playoffs. While the last five NE games have gone "under" the number, I expect today's contest to finally sneak above, as both teams are hungry for a victory here and I expect that determination to translate into production on the field. 

The pick: Both Tua and Newton have something to prove as well. Each QB is playing for a position on a team for next season, so it's a "game within a game" here. Also note that the Patriots have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last 11 road games after playing to three or more straight "unders." This number is a tad low.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Pats/Fish.

The set-up: Buffalo comes in off three straight wins, but after beating Pittsburgh 26-15 at home last weekend, and with a game at New England on the 28th up next, before its season finale against Miami, I do believe this sets up as a bit of a trap for the visiting side. 

The pick: The Broncos won't be in the post-season, but they're playing strnog down the stretch. Last weekend they posted a 32-27 road win at Carolina, proving that they're trying to finish off on a positive note. Denver has the ability to affect the playoffs and I think that's a big motivational factor. It also plays with revenge after losing this game 20-2 last season. Buffalo has not played well defensively, allowing 27.6 PPG and I think it'll struggle to contain this hungry home side. The outright is possible, but in the end grab the points.

This is a 10* SUPER-SPECIAL on the Denver Broncos.

The set-up: This game reminds me a lot of the Cowboys at the Bengals last weekend. Both teams had been ravaged by injury and on and off field issues. Also plenty of COVID related problems as well. I had a play on the Cowboys, as I reckoned they were the much "hungrier" team. I also felt that despite their win/loss record, the Cowboys absolutely had the better talent on the field of play as well in that matchup. And that's almost exactly the case here as well, except I'd argue that the Raiders look a lot better than the Cowboys through all three phases this year and their 7-6 record proves that. The Raiders season is on the line here. This is a "must win" game for Las Vegas, easily it's most important contest of the enitre season. Playing on the short week at home also benefits the Raiders situationally tonight. 

The pick: LA has nothing to play for here and I expect it to throw in the white towel early (note that it's just 1-6 ATS in its last seven overall.) The public money is all over Las Vegas and this time, I think they're right. Lay the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Las Vegas Raiders.

The set-up: This is an important divisional matchup. Baltimore crushed the Browns 38-6 at home in Week 1 and I'm expecting a similar final combined score here as well. Cleveland is coming off its fourth straight win, a 41-35 victory over Tennessee. Baltimore won 34-17 over the Cowboys. Baltimore averages 26.3 PPG and it allows just 19.3. The Browns averages 25.5 PPG, and they allow 26.8. Both teams can score, as they combine for 52 points, a figure which would push this total "over" the posted number. Both teams are decent defensively, as they combined to allow just 44 PPG. With the season winding down and so much on the line though, this one has the feel of a playoff game to me, where every inch is going to be contested. Where the game is decided in the trenches and by field position. This one has the feel of a "chess match," rather than a run and gun "shootout." 

The pick: The numbers/trends support this theory as well, as note that the total has gone "under" in six of the Ravens last eight on the road. It's also gone "under" in six of these teams last eight vs. each other. A great time to pull the trigger on this situational totals play. This  number is a tad high in my opinion.

This is a 10* AFC NORTH TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Ravens/Browns.

The set-up: The Saints have become the first team to qualify for the Playoffs this year afrer their 21-16 win over Atlanta last weekend and I think a predictable letdown is finally in order here. Drew Brees has been sidelined with injury the last two weeks, but Taysom Hill has filled in pretty well in his place. New Orleans is averaging 28.9 PPG and it's allowing just 20.1, but all signs point to this team finally taking the foot off the gas in my opinion, especially with a big game at home against the Chiefs next weekend, one which would likely see Brees return to action. 

The pick: Philadelphia is in must win mode though at 3-8-1, as another loss would see it drop out of playoff contention. The Giants lead the weak NFC East, but Philadelphia still has a mathematical shot at winning the division, it just needs to win some games. And one game at a time. Jalen Hurts is under center now for the Eagles and he can't be any worse than Carson Wentz. I think the change will electrify this still talented Eagles offense. Philly's offense needs a jumpstart, as the defense has allowed 25.6 PPG. Look for the more motivated home side to at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Philadelphia Eagles.

The set-up: New Orleans would love to keep the win streak going, but one has to wonder if this is a trap game or not?! New Orleans is the first team to qualify for the playoffs after last weekends win and it's won its last two games without Drew Brees under center. This also sets up as a "look-ahead" spot as the Saints welcome the defending champion Chiefs next weekend. New Orleans has been superb on both sides of the ball, but Philadelphia is coming to play a full quarters today as it is in a "must win" situation. Even at 3-8-1 the Eagles are still in contention for the Division title, but they can't afford any more losses. In fact, things are so dire that they've decided to insert rookie Jalen Hurts into the line-up in hopes of jump-starting this offense. Hurts has weapons around him and I like the rookie to do just that. 

The pick: Additionally note that the Saints have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 after three or more straight SU victories in a row, while the Eagles have seen the total eclipse the posted number in ten of their last 14 after two or more SU losses. From a situational standpoint, this one definitely screams "over!" 

This is a 10* NFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Saints/Eagles.

The set-up: Clearly this is a big game for both teams. The Cards are 6-6 and they'd be out of the playoff picture if the playoffs began today, while at 5-7 the Giants would be in. New York has won four straight somehow, but I think a lapse is finally in order here vs. this now desperate Cardinals team which MUST WIN today to keep their playoff hopes alive. I use motivation alot as a way to handicap games and in my opinion, this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the home side, while Arizona enters in a "must win" situation. 

The pick: Note further that the Giants are still just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 at home, while the Cardinals are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games after a three games are longer SU losing streak. Arizona still has one of the best offenses in the league and I have a hard time seeing New York keeping pace. I'm laying the points.

This is a 9* PLAY-BOOK on the Cardinals.

The set-up: I think this is going to be a very competitive, higher-scoring affair. The Patriots still have a shot at the playoffs after the NFL extended the playoff pool to seven teams for each conference. New England is coming off a 45-0 win over the Chargers, so it's been able to stay in the state, which is a huge situational advantage for the visiting side here. Cam Newton only had 69 yards passing last weekend, but the run game had 180 yards and the special teams play was incredible. 

The pick: The Rams and Patriots both have Top 10 defensive numbers, but each come in off high-scoring victories. LA smoked the Cardinals 38-28 last time out and it now has the lead in the NFC West over Seattle due in part to the tie-breaker. I expect these two motivated sides open up the playbook and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. 

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the OVER Pats/Rams.

The set-up: Dallas is on the ropes. It's 3-8 and it's coming off a poor 41-17 home loss to Washington on Thanksgiving day. The Cowboys need to win this game. They basically need to win every game if they have any shot at making the playoffs. One thing's for sure though, if the Cowboys lose today, they're season is essentially over. I expect Dallas to give its best shot today. The only way this team is going to win is to put the pressure on Baltimore and hope that it makes a few mistakes. 

The pick: LaMar Jackson is back under center for the home side and he'll look to take advantage of this Cowboys defense which is ranked dead last in the league. Baltimore needs some wins as well and it has every reason to run up the score even if it has a lead as it tries to regain chemistry which it's recently lost. I expect both teams to push the pace from start to finish and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later.

This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the OVER Dallas/Baltimore.

The set-up: This is an important non-conference game for both teams. The Bills are 8-3 and the 49ers are 5-6. Buffalo beat the Chargers 27-17 last time out, while the 49ers beat the Rams 23-20 on the road. Buffalo is going to try and push the tempo of this one, as it comes to the West Coast averaging 27.2 PPG, while allowing 25.6. Josh Allen has emerged this season as one of the top QB's, as he has 3,028 passing yards, 22 TD's and eight interceptions. 

The pick: The 49ers are fighting to stay alive in the playoff hunt after a slow start, due mostly to injury and COVID. San Fran snapped its three-game losing streak last time out as its finally adjusting on the offensive side with Nick Mullens under center. So far Mullens has 1,642 passing yards, six touchdowns and seven interceptions. San Fran averages 23.7 PPG and it allows 23.1, but note that it's seen the total fly "over" the number in four of its last six vs. Buffalo. The Bills have seen the total fly over in four of their last five on the road and all signs point to these strong trends continuing here. This number is a little low.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Buffalo/San Fran.

The set-up: Divisional contests are always the most important and they almost always mean the most to the home side. Neither team has played to many high-scoring affairs of late, but I think this one definitely sets up as a "shootout." What's the first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two clubs? For me its decent defensive play and strong run games. Both teams have above-average quarterbacks directing the show as well though. Jared Goff and Kyler Murray are poised for a big game here on Sunday afternoon in my opinion. 

The pick: Note as well that Arizona has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in four of its last six at home, while LA has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 11 after scoring 20 points or less in a SU/ATS loss in its previous outing. This one has "shootout" written all over it.

This is a 9* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the OVER Rams/Cards.

The set-up: I think this is the week. This is the week that the Jets finally get off the schneid, not only covering this game, but winning outright. It's a perfect situational play in my opinion. The Jets are not giving up and want desperately to get off the schneid. Although they lost badly to Miami last weekend, previous to that they lost two very close games, against two decent teams. Vegas really needs a win as well, but the Raiders are dealing with injuries and issues of their own and are still reeling from a humbling 43-6 loss at Atlanta last weekend. 

The pick: Yes, the Jets are a bad team. New York has had to deal with plenty of COVID and injury issues this year, but it comes in likely healthier now that it's been all season. I look for the Jets to lay everything on the line today as they finally get into the winners circle!

This is a 9* DESTRUCTION on the JETS on the MONEY-LINE.

The set-up: These teams are awfully similar on the offensive side of the ball, but Cleveland has the slight advantage defensively. Cleveland comes to town off a 27-25 win at Jacksonville, while Tennessee looks poised for a letdown after its 45-26 road win at Indianpolis. Cleveland's defense gets a huge boost for this game as well, with the expected return of star Myles Garrett. 

The pick: Tennessee played with revenge last weekend and after that emotional victory, I think a minor setback is immiment at home. Neither team has looked perfect this year, as each has suffered with consistency at times. Cleveland's issues this year came mostly though when leading receiver OBJ was injured and it took a couple of weeks for the offense to adjust. That adjustment period is now over though and this Cleveland team is one which will fight until the final moments. In a contest which I see being decided late, I'm grabbing the points!

This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Cleveland Browns.

The set-up: Unfortunately, I played this game before all of the issues that the Ravens have gone through over the last week and I have the opening line of 3.5. I'm locked into this play and while I obviously don't love it as much as I did before all of this happened, I still do think that the Ravens have a legitimate shot at upsetting the Steelers outright. Baltimore plays with revenge after a 28-24 loss at home on November 1st. The Ravens actually outgained the Steelers 457 to 221 in that one and had 25 first downs compared to just 19. However, Pittsburgh won the turnover battle 4 to 1 and that was the difference in the end. The Ravens and Steelers are very evenly matched with their numbers through all three phases. 

The pick: The Ravens have both of their star RB's available now as well to play. Whoever is under center for Baltimore today, I think that the Ravens will "step up" here and "man up" and at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Grab the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Ravens.

The set-up: Seattle has lost three of its last five and it needs to keep winning here to maintain its lead. The Hawks have some hope though, as Arizona is coming off a loss in New England. These teams last played a playoff game last January and Seattle won 17-6. Suffice it to say, I'm expecting a much more wide-open affair here though, as each team truly is desperate for a victory today. Philadelphia is coming off a second-straight loss, falling 22-17 to Cleveland at home. Overall the Hawks average 31.8 PPG. Seattle's defense has been poor though and the secondary has some key injuries today, including S Marquise Blair and Lano Hill and cornerbacks Quinton Dunbar and Neiko Thorpe are out.

The pick: Philly is only averaging 22 PPG, while allowing 25.4. I'll point out though that the Eagles have seen the total fly "over" the number in eight of their last 11 after scoring 19 points or less in a loss in their last outing. More than anything, this sets up great as a "shootout" from a situational standpoint. Both teams have weapons on offense, and I expect them to be the main storylines in tomorrow's summaries. This number is low.

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the OVER Hawks/Eagles.

The set-up: Everything on paper here screams "under," but I'm going the other way and expecting the undermanned Saints to "man up" and push the pace from start to finish. New Orleans defense looked good against the Falcons last weekend, but I think the unit will struggle in this difficult road venue. Denver comes in off a 20-13 win over the Dolphins, so this is a team which has not even come close to throwing in the towel yet. From a situational stand point, I think it sets up great for a higher-scoring affair. 

The pick: Note as well that Denver has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after holding its previous opponent to 13 points or less in a victory, while New Orleans has seen the total fly over in five of its last six on the road. This number is low.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the Saints/Broncos OVER.

The set-up: The Browns are 7-3 and ready to finally break out with a big offensive game. Cleveland has had to deal with plenty of inclement weather conditions the last few weeks, but now this high-powered offense can be unleashed in sunny conditions and vs. this poor Jacksonville secondary. The Browns earned a close 22-17 victory over Philly at home last time out, but I expect a much higher-scoring affair this time around. 

The pick: Mike Glennon gets the nod for the visitors, who will be eager to atone for a poor effort against the Steelers last weekend. Fortunately for Glennon he faces one of the worst defenses in the league. Neither team has played to many high-scoring affairs of late, but I expect that trend to finally end here. The play is the over.

This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Browns/Jaguars.

The set-up: I think this is a bad spot for the Dolphins, who got upset badly by the Broncos on the road last weekend. Tua Tagovailoa looked poor and I think he'll struggle here again vs. this hungry home side that's still determined to get off the schneid with a win. The Miami offense moved better with Fitzpatrick and the defense looked slow last week.

The picks: The Jets have plenty of issues on both sides of the ball, but they're getting a lot healthier. This is a great opportunity for Sam Darnold has weapons and his defense is improving as well. With a chance to deal a big blow to Miami's playoff hopes, I do indeed believe the outright win is possible for the home side. However, why not grab up all these points?!

This is a 9* UNDERDOG BEST OF THE BEST on the Jets.

The set-up: Both teams come in off important victories. The Redskins have Alex Smith back under center and their run game has improved. They're going to have their hands full here with this revenge-minded Cowboys team which also enters off a crucial victory over Minnesota. The Cowboys offense behind Andy Dalton finally returned to form and I think that the Redskins are going to have a lot of trouble slowing down this balanced Cowboys attack that's out for revenge. Situationally speaking, this one definitely sets up as a higher-scoring "over." 

The picks: It's important to note as well that despite the Redskins lower-scoring win at home over Dallas earlier in the season, that eight of these team's last ten in the series have indeed gone "over" the number. Also note that it's gone "over" in these team's last five on this field. For all the reasons listed above, play the "over!"

This is a 9* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER Washington/Dallas.

The set-up: Both teams are struggling this year. The Texans are eseentially eliminated from playoff contention, but the Lions still have a shot. After getting blanked 20-0 by Carolina last week, I expect a much better effort from the Lions offense on the national stage on their home field. Houston only averages 78 yards per game on the ground, so its game-plan will be to let DeShaun Watson take over this game. Watson comes in off one of his strongest games, going for 344 yards and two touchdowns in a win over New England at home, their third win of the year. These are two teams hungry for a win and I expect that competition to translate into production on the field. 

The picks: Additionally note that Houston has seen the total go "over" the number in ten of its last 14 after Watson throws for two or more TD's in a win in its last outing, while Detroit has seen the total go "over" in ten of its last 11 at home. This one has "shootout" written all over it!

This is a 9* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Houston/Detroit.

The set-up: Both teams need victories. Tampa has struggled against the better defenses so far this season and the Rams come to town with one of the best units on that side of the ball. LA is 6-3 and Tampa is 7-3. The Rams enter with a ton of momentum though, as after their bye-week they won a crucial 23-16 contest over division rival Seattle at home last Sunday. Jared Goff had over 300 yards passing for a second straight game. The defense though was tremendous, posting six sacks and two INT's. Tampa comes in off a 46-23 win over Carolina, as Tom Brady had 341 passing yards and three TD's. As mentioned above though, Brady has struggled against strong pass rushing teams, so I expect the veteran to take a step back here today. 

The picks: Schedule wise this favors the Rams, as the Bucs have yet to have their bye-week and coach Bruce Arians admits his team is tired. They're coming off a big win over a division rival on the road, and then Tampa has to deal with the Chiefs at home next weekend. LA hasn't been on the road since November 1st. While the outright win is possible in my opinion, I'm grabbing the points.

This is a 10* MONEY-BOMB on the LA Rams.

The set-up: Las Vegas is dealing with some COVID 19 issues right now with some of its defensive players. The Chiefs are 8-1 and their only loss was to the Raiders at home, so they come out of their bye week focussed and ready to lay a beat down on the national stage. KC's offense is as dangerous as ever, but its defense has made big strides this year, as it allows only 6.6 yards per attempt passing, which ranks thrid in the league. 

The picks: The Raiders earned the upset victory in KC, but they're still just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 following a SU win, while the Chiefs are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 when playing the role of favorites. KC is out for revenge and Andy Reid has had an extra week off to design and prepare. I expect a blowout from start to finish. 

This is a 10* SUNDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE YEAR on the Chiefs.

The set-up: All good things have to come to an end at some point. Miami has played exceptionally well over the last five weeks, but I think it'll struggle in this difficult non-conference road venue. The Fish enter off a 29-21 win over the Chargers, while the Broncos come in off a 37-12 loss to the Raiders. Tua Tagovailoa is in unchartered territory at this point and I think he's going to preditably struggle in the thin air of Denver. 

The picks: The Broncos have lost two straight on the road, but they'll be trying to win their second straight at home. Drew Lock and Melvin Gordon III give the home side the potential to earn an outright victory, but in the end I'll recommend to grab the points. Miami has hit a dangerous part of its schedule, with a "cream puff" at division rival Jets up next and I think it'll get caught complacent and looking ahead. Expect Denver to shock Miami and earn a hard-fought win and cover!

This is an 8* COACH'S CORNER on the Denver Broncos.

The set-up: Philadelphia desperately needs a win here after falling 27-21 to division rival New York last time out. CLeveland comes in off a 10-7 win over Houston last time out. While both teams do indeed come in off lower-scoring affairs, I fully expect both Carson Wentz of the Eagles and Baker Mayfield of the Browns to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. Miles Sanders returned from injury for Philadelphia last weekend and he had 85 yards in a losing cause. This is big for Wentz's offense though. 

The picks: Mayfield also benefits from a healthy backfield, as both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are back and this is going to open up the play-action for the home side pivot. Totals were up across the league after the first five weeks, but they've since dropped back down considerably over the last few weekends. I think this one has dropped a little too low, as I look for these two non-conference playoff hopefuls to open up the playbook and I expect this total to fly over sooner, rather than later.

This is a 9* TOP TOTAL on the OVER Eagles/Browns.

The set-up: Arizona scored a high-scoring OT victory at home over Seattle a couple weeks ago. Both teams have been playing to very high-scoring games this year, but on the short week, I think that trend changes. Seattle desperately needs a bounce back victory here. The Hawks' once vaunted defense is long gone, but this is a big opportunity for that unit to bounce back as well. It's been raining heavily in the Pacific Northwest for the last couple of weeks and that's going to play a factor here as well. 

The pick: Both teams will be out to establish the run from start to finish while on offense on this blustery night in Seattle. Note that the last four Cardinals road games have gone "under" the number as well. I believe the conditions are definitely right for more of a "chess match," than a run and gun "shootout." This number is a little high.

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Cards/Hawks.

The set-up: Chicago comes in off a tough 24-17 loss at Tennessee. The Bears are now desperate as they look to break a three-game slide. The Vikes on the other hand look poised for letdown in my opinion after two-straight wins, most recently a 34-20 victory over the Lions. Dalvin Cook has sure looked great for Minnesota of late, so far he has 858 rushing yards and 13 TD's. Despite their recent "blip of success" though, note that the Vikings average 27.1 PPG, while conceding 29.3. 

The picks: Nick Foles had a big day in the Tennessee loss, going 36 of 52 335 yards and two touchdowns. The Bears have dominated this series at home, going 16-3 the last 19 in this series and 5-1 ATS the last six. Clearly I believe the outright is going to happen, but in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can.

This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on the Chicago Bears.

The set-up: I played this game early and have a very good number, but regardless, I love this play to fall well below the posted number once it's all said and done. For the most part I base my O/U picks on "situations" and "trends" (in every major North American sport.) The 49ers are essentially playing for the playoff lives here and clearly the last thing they can do is turn this into a "track meet" and expect to hang with the high-flying Saints. New Orleans on the other hand comes in off its sixth straight win, including a blowout victory over rival Tampa last weekend, so this sets up as a letdown spot for the home side. 

The picks: San Francisco's strength remains its defense, but New Orleans' unit is definitely underrated (additionally note that NO has seen the total go "under" the number in nine of its last 14 after five or more SU victories in a row.) For all the reasons above, look for this total to stay "under" at the end of the night.

This is a 9* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER 49ers/Saints.

The set-up: This game opened as a pick, but it's since moved to -2.5 or even -3 for the home side. For this pick I'm going to suggest steering clear of the spread though and to lay the reasonable price for the Rams to win on the money-line. Seattle got out to a great start, but that came against weak competition. The Hawks' defense is atrocious and I expect Jared Goff and the Rams to take care of business at home. Seattle has also lost two in a row on the road. Russell Wilson has 28 touchdown passes and only eight interceptions, but Seattle allows 30.4 PPG. 

The picks: The Rams on the other hand have won three straight at home. LA averages 24.1 PPG and it concedes just 19. LA lost to Miami, but it conceded only 145 total yards. While this is a money-line bet, it's still interesting to note that LA is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven following a SU loss, while Seattle is just 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. the division. Wilson has thrown five INT's over his last three games, as regression on the offensive side is also under way in Seattle. Divisional contests are always the most important and they almost always mean the most to the home side. Lay the price for the outright, straight up win.

This is a 10* NFC WEST GAME OF THE YEAR on the RAMS on the MONEY LINE.

The set-up: Philadelphia leads the NFC East at 3-4-1 and it comes out of its bye week rested and prepared to increase its lead in the division at the New York Giants, who moved to 2-7 in the division after last week's 23-20 win over the Washington Football team. Previous to their bye week, the Eagles beat the Cowboys 23-9. While both teams have played to a few lower-scoring games in a row, I believe today's contest finally sets up as more of a "shootout." Situationally it definitely appears to be a high-scoring game to me, as these two QB's will clearly be given the green light to take over this game. The first game between the clubs this year featured plenty of yardage, but not much scoring. Look for that trend to end here, as I expect these two hungry clubs to fight tooth and nail until the final whistle sounds. 

The picks: Note as well that the total has gone "over" the number in six of the Giants last eight at home anyways, while it's also gone "over" in seven of these teams last ten vs. each other. Look for this total to sneak "over" as it comes down the stretch.

This is an 8* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the OVER Philly/NY.

The set-up: The Colts come in off a 24-10 home loss to the Ravens, but I think they'll find a way to get past the "on again, off again" Titans on Thursday night. Tennessee ended a two-game skid with a tougher than expected 24-17 home win over the Bears last weekend. These teams played twice last year of course and the road team won each tame. I like Philip Rivers to bounce back here vs. this suspect Titans secondary. Overall Indy is averaging 26 points per game and allowing 20. 

The picks: Tennessee is averaging 29 PPG and it's conceding 25.1. The Titans are a poor 27th against the pass as well, allowing 275 yards per game. The Colts are third against the run, which is Tennessee's strength. I'm banking on Rivers being the difference maker here vs. this terrible Titans defense. That said, grab the points!

This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Indianapolis Colts.

The set-up: I got down early and have an unfavorable line, but regardless, I like the Jets to at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the backdoor down the stretch. This is a big game for the Jets, who have an opportunity to get their first win of the year against the worst team they've faced all year, while also putting the final nail in the coffin for the Patriots playoff hopes. This is a monster "revenge" game as well for the Jets, who have lost eight straight in this series and nine of ten. Both teams have been terrible offensively and "OK" defensively. 

The picks: Darnold and the Jets have had to deal with several injuries, but I still think he's a better QB than Newton. Darnold won AFC Player of the week twice last season. Note as well that the Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven when playing at home to the Patriots. The outright is possible, but let's grab the points.

This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on the New York Jets.

The set-up: The Titans come in off a 31-20 setback to the Bengals last weekend, while the Bears lost 26-23 in OT to the Saints. The Bears offense is going to struggle to keep pace here in my opinion. So far Chicago has gotten great defensive play to keep it in games, but Tennessee averages 29.7 PPG and it only concedes 23.

The picks: Chicago is also only 3-7 ATS in its last ten at home, while the Titans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after back-to-back SU losses. I love Tennessee here, as I expect Derrick Henry to set the ton early. Lay the points, expect a rout!

This is a 9* COACH'S CORNER on the Titans.

The set-up: The Ravens are 5-2 and after this game they have contests vs. the Patriots, Titans and Steelers up next. The Colts on the other hand are tied with Tennessee for top spot in the AFC North after winning back to back games. Baltimore will be out to atone for last week's 28-24 loss to Pittsburgh. The Ravens will look to establish their run game today to try and alleviate a lot of the pressure of LaMar Jackson. 

The picks: Philip Rivers and the Colts face one of the best pass defenses they'll see all year, but Indianapolis also has a strong run game, led by Jordan Wilkins. The Colts are No. 5 against the pass and the Ravens are No. 2. With both teams looking to "run first," look for this total to stay well "under" once it's all said and done!

This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER Ravens/Colts.

The set-up: Buffalo is 6-2 and Seattle is 6-1. This is an important non-conference contest for both teams, who look to maintain their leads in their division and conferences. The Seahawks have averaged 34.3 PPG and they've allowed 28.4. The Hawks have seen the total go "over" in several games this year, but note that they've seen the total dip "under" in ten of their last 13 after scoring 35 points or more in an ATS/SU win at home in their last outing. 

The picks: The Bills offense has regressed somewhat the last two weeks, and the defense has improved slightly. The result is 2-0 the last two games, most recently a 24-21 win over New England, in which Cam Newton fumbled the ball away in the final seconds with a chance for victory. Overall though the defense was great against Newton, holding him to 174 yards passing and no touchdowns. Buffalo averages 24.8 PPG and it allows 24.9. Buffalo has also seen the total go "under" in ten of its last 16 after B2B SU victories. This number is a tad high.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Hawks/Bills.

The set-up: These teams met twice last year and the 49ers won both games at home. The Packers have now lost two of their last three games and shoddy defensive play is to blame. Dalvin Cook torched the Packers on the ground last weekend for 226 yards and three touchdowns. Thankfully for Green Bay, it faces a depleted 49ers team this weekend. Aaron Rodgers continues to be a bright spot for Green Bay, as he has 20 touchdowns and only two interceptions. 

The picks: The 49ers lost 37-27 at Seattle last weekend. They also lost the services of their two best offensive players in TE George Kittle and QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Green Bay struggles against decent pass coverate and San Francisco has an elite pass covering unit. The last thing San Fran can do here is obviously try to turn this into a "shootout" and expect to win vs. Rodgers. This is a common sense play for sure, as in my opinion, everything points to more of a "chess match," than a "shootout." 

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the UNDER Packers/49ers.

The set-up: Tampa is probably the best team in the NFC. That said, it did lose to New Orleans in Week 1 and it faces the Saints next week at home, followed by another divisional contest at Carolina. This game vs. the Giants is important, but not nearly as much as the two contests on deck. New York on the other hand has had to deal with several on and off-field issues, but it's lost its last three games by three points or less and four of six by eight points or less. Clearly the Bucs are the better team, but I think they'll slow down in the second half if they have a lead, while I expect New York to fight tooth and nail until the final whistle. 

The pick: Tampa is also just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after scoring 40 or more points in a 20 points or larger victory in its last outing. Expect the hungry Giants to comfortably sneak in through the back door with the large spread they've been afforded.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the New York Giants.

The set-up: Buffalo will be out to run up the score here in my estimation. This is the first of two games between these heated rivals. The total has dropped quite a bit in this one due to bad weather, but that can in fact work both ways. I'm not reading too much into that as I look for both sides to push the pace from the outset. New England QB Cam Newton is out to redeem himself as well after a few poor performances. The Bills are off a win over the Jets 18-10, kicking five field goals for the victory. These two offenses have been stuck in neutral the last few weeks, but I believe that changes in this pivotal contest. 

The pick: Note as well that New England has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after scoring seven or less points in a loss in its previous outing (lost 33-6 to San Fran), while Buffalo has seen the total fly "over" in 14 of its last 21 after being held without an offensive TD in its previous outing. This one has "shootout" written all over it!

This is an 8* O/U PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Patriots/Bills.

The set-up: The Colts are off their bye week and they catch a Lions teach which has won two straight. The Colts are a huge step up on the defensive side for Detroit here though and I think it'll struggle with offensive consistency this week. Philip Rivers looked great two weeks ago, coming from behind to knock off the Bengals on the road, throwing for 380 yards and three touchdowns. The Lions secondary has been suspect as well, so I love a rested Rivers to have a big game on the road here. 

The pick: Detroit is still just 5-12 ATS in its last 17 overall as well, while Indianpolis is 6-2 ATS in its last eight following a SU win and coming out of its bye-week. I'm laying the points, I'm expecting a blowout.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Indianapolis Colts.

The set-up: I love this play. Both teams have come off some very high-scoring affairs, but I think that this game sets up as much more of a defensive affair finally. Las Vegas was just spanked 45-20 by the Bucs at home and it'll be out to get back to its winning ways, facing a Browns team which comes in off a 37-34 OT win over the Bengals, but which lost top WR Odell Beckham Jr. in the process. I expect the home side to get out and establish the run early and often here. Situationally, I believe this absolutely sets up as more of a "chess match," than a "run and gun shootout." 

The pick: Note as well that Cleveland has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after scoring 35 points or more in a SU OT victory in its last outing, while Las Vegas has seen the total go "under" in seven of its last 11 after allowing 40 or more points in a 20 points or larger loss in its previous outing. This number is much too high.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Vegas/Cleveland.

The set-up: Atlanta is out of the playoff picture, but it's still trying to win games. These teams played in Week 5 and the Panthers scored the 23-16 victory, so this is also a revenge game as well. Atlanta comes in off a 23-22 loss to Detroit last time out, a heartbreaker which I think it'll boune back from here. Overall Atlanta is averaging 26.3 PPG and it's allowing 29.6. 

The pick: Carolina is averaging 23.1 points per game and it's allowing 24. The Panthers have lost two in a row now and I think their offense will have a hard time keeping up with Atlanta and Julio Jones, who was not playing in the Week 5 contest. Carolina is also just 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven at home, while the Falcons are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven as a road underdog. Atlanta has played better than its 1-6 record and I expect it to avenge the earlier Week 5 loss today. That said, grab the points!

This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on the Atlanta Falcons.

The set-up: Neither team has played to many high-scoring games this year, but I look for this Monday night contest to be more of a wide-open affair. The Bears continue to win, they most recently got past Carolina 23-16. LA had won three in a row before a 24-16 loss at San Francisco last weekend. Both teams only ask their QB's to "manage" games, so Jared Goff and Nick Foles are a wash here. These are two "gun slingers" though who will be given the green light to air it out on the national stage. 

The pick: Strong run games and strong defenses are what define these clubs in the early going, but note that Chicago has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after back-to-back SU/ATS victories, while LA has seen the total go "over" in ten of its last 16 after a loss in which it score 17 or less points in. I expect this total to fly over sooner, rather than later.

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the OVER Bears/Rams.

The set-up: Both teams have done well this year. The Hawks are 5-0 and the Cardinals are 4-2. If you look at each team's schedule though, neither team has played any tough games yet. Seattle's wins have come over team's with a combined 9-21 record. Arizona has played teams with a combined 11-21 record. For the first time this season these teams are truly going to be tested here. Seattle's defense has been poor for sure this season and it's "lucky" that it escaped with a 27-26 win at home over the Vikes two weeks ago. 

The pick: Arizona comes in off its most complete performance of the year in a 38-10 win over the Cowboys last weekend. I think this sets up perfectly for the Cards here. Divisional contests are always the most important and they almost always mean more to the home side. I'm grabbing the points, but won't be shocked by an outright upset either.

This is a 9* ATS BLOWOUT on the Arizona Cardinals.

The set-up: Both teams have been poor. The Chargers come in off their bye-week and I expect them to be a step behind the Jaguars today. Gardner Minshew and company have nothing to lose here and this one has all the makings of a much more competitive affair than what this spread would suggest. 

The pick: I give the nod to Minshew over the Chargers' Justin Herbert as well. Note as well that the LA is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine following its bye week and after three or more SU losses. Expect the Jaguars to do more than enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door with the large spread they've been afforded here. 

This is an 8* play on the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The set-up: This was originally going to be the Sunday Night game, but there were a couple Covid related issues which caused the league to delay this game and then re-schedule to an afternoon slot. Regardless, Tampa looks to build off its big win at home over the Packers, holding Aaron Rodgers without a touchdown, along with forcing three interceptions. THe last thing Tampa wants to do though is turn this into a shootout with the Raiders, who upset the Chiefs 40-32 in their last outing. Tampa's defense is elite and the run game is starting to fire on all cylinders. Look for Brady to be more a game manager than gun-slinger today. 

The pick: Finally note that the Raiders have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 after their bye and after scoring 40 or more points in a victory in their previous outing. This number is a little high.

This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Bucs/Raiders.

The set-up: I think the Texans have a legitimate shot at winning this game outright. The Packers looked pretty ordinary in their beatdown loss in Tampa last weekend. Clearly Aaron Rodgers will have a better game here, however Houston won't be lacking for motivation here after its first win of the year over Jacksonville last time out. The Packers strength of schedule definitely has to be called into question here. While Rodgers is off his worst start of his career, the Texans' DeShaun Watson is off his best start of the season. These teams are moving in different directions. 

The pick: Houston has played the much tougher schedule as well to this point and it faces a difficult road schedule up next. Their season is on the line, I like the Texans to at the very least, sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

This is an 8* play on the Houston Texans.

The set-up: The Bills come in off a 26-17 loss to Kansas City, a Chiefs team which was coming off its second loss of the year in a poor effort at home to the Raiders. Now they face a Jets team desperate to get off the schneid at home and which welcomes back starting QB Sam Darnold. 

The pick: Buffalo has a game at home vs. division rival New England next week, followed by a visit from league-leading Seattle. Can anyone say "look-ahead spot?!" The numbers on paper favor Buffalo, but the overall situation definitely favors the hungry Jets. New York isn't going to go 0-16 SU/ATS this season and this is its best chance yet for a straight-up victory. That said, let's grab the points!

This is an 8* play on the New York Jets.

The set-up: These teams play in a horrible division and despite the Eagles being 1-4-1 and the Giants being 1-5, both still mathematically have a shot at winning the title. Philly is winless at home and New York is winless at home. The Eagles did win both matchups last year. New York posted its first win of the year last week in a 20-19 victory over Washington. That was despite being outgained 337 to 240. QB Daniel Jones was an unremarkable 12 of 19 for 112 yards. He has three TD's and six INT's this season. New York is 31st in the NFL in rushing as well. 

The pick: The Eagles come in off a slim loss to the Ravens. Philadelphia has been competitive in defeat and I expect it to look to control this game from the outset. Wentz is only averaging 233.5 YPG and he has a career low completion percentage of 58.7. Both teams are struggling offensively and each has been decent defensively. Look for the short week to amplify those trends and look for this total to stay well under once it's all said and done.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Giants/Eagles.

The set-up: The Cardinals only allow 20.4 PPG. This is a historically awful Cowboys defense, but that unit catches a bit of a break this week facing this more conservative Cardinals offense. The Cowboys though I think will have much difficulty in trying to replicate their offensive numbers moving forward without Dak Prescott under center. Andy Dalton doesn't have the stamina that his younger counterpart has, so I expect the veteran's performance to wane as the game goes on. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a lower-scoring affair. 

The pick: Note as well that Arizona has seen the total go "under" in four of its last five games overall. Expect each offense to try and establish the run early and look for this total to stay "under" once it's all said and done.

This is an 8* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Cards/Cowboys.

The set-up: Yes, the Bills lost terribly on Tuesday night in Tennessee. Previous to that Buffalo had gone 4-0. The scheduling of that game though likely played havoc with the Bill chemistry and I expect a much better performance here at home on Monday night. The Chiefs looked pretty darn ordinary in their home loss last time out. Both teams sport similar numbers, both offensively and defensively, but I believe that this one sets up well from a situational stand point for the home side. KC is in Denver next weekend, while the Bills are at the Jets.

The pick: The numbers/stats are working in our favor as well, as note that Buffalo is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference home games as a 4-points or greater underdog. I think this one comes down to whichever of these two hungry teams has its hands on the ball last. I'm grabbing the points.

This is a 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Buffalo Bills. 

The set-up: The 49ers have ben ravaged by injury early. Jimmy Garopolo only played a half in last week's 43-17 loss to the Dolphins, but he's expected to start this week. San Francisco though still has many holes on both sides of the ball. The Rams are 4-1 and they're playing exceptional defense right now, allowing only 18 points and 330 yards of total offense per game. If San Francisco has troubles moving the ball on the Fish, I can't see it having much luck in this divisional contest vs. this elite defense. The Rams have also gotten great play from Jared Goff, who has limited the turnovers in the early going. 

The pick: San Francisco is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven after allowing more than 250 passing yards in its previous game as well, while the Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a losing record. This one has lop-sided "blowout" written all over it. Lay the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the LA Rams.

The set-up: The Bengals are 1-3-1 after a 27-3 loss to Baltimore. Remember, the Browns lost 34-6 to Baltimore in Week 1, but since then Baker Mayfield and the Browns have averaged almost 40 PPG. I'm not saying that's what's going to happen here for Joe Burrow and company, I'm just making a point that the Ravens defense is pretty damn good. The Colts have looked great at times and poor in others. Last week they looked bad in a 32-23 road loss to the Cleveland Browns. Nine of those points that the Browns scored came off of Philip Rivers turnovers as well. I think Indianapolis is overrated to this point and I like the hungrier home side to keep this one a lot closer than what this spread would suggest. 

The pick: The Bengals are 7-2 ATS in their last nine off an ATS loss and as home dog of 7 points or more, while the Colts are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight after an ATS loss of ten or more point in which they were the favorite. Indy gets caught looking ahead to its bye week next weekend and leaves the back door open in the second half. Outright is possible, but grab the points in the end.

This is an 8* UPSET DESTROYER on the Bengals.

The set-up: This is a big game for both teams. The Browns looked good last week at home vs. the Colts to move to 4-1, but they struggled in Week 1 on the road vs. Baltimore and its elite defense. Now they hit the road for an important divisional contest vs. the red hot Steelers, who are among the league leaders on the defensive end. Both teams have done well offensively, but until Mayfield can win a big game on the road in a hostile environment, I am not convinced he actually can.

The pick: The Browns strength is their run game, but Nick Chubb is now out with injury. Cleveland's weakness is its defense, which doesn't bode well facing red hot Ben Roethlisberger. It's been reported that Mayfield has a minor injury today as well and will play through it. This one sets up beautifully for a home side blowout. Lay the points.

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL ATS BEATDOWN on the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The set-up: Both teams are undefeated. Playing during the pandemic is weird enough for these players, but having to shift their schedule to play on Tuesday night is unprecedented. I think this will effect offensive chemistry from both sides. Both teams defensive numbers are in the middle of the pack, but I look for each side's offense to concentrate on establishing the run. Strictly from a situational stand point, I think this one definitely sets up nicely as a lower-scoring affair. 

The pick: Note though that the "under" has hit in four of these teams last five in the series. Tennessee has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 12 after its bye week (while not technically its official bye, Tennessee did not play last weekend due to covid issues), while Buffalo has seen the total dip below the number in ten of its last 15 after three or straight up victories in a row. This total is a little high.

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Bills/Titans.

The set-up: Both teams are coming off high-scoring affairs, but I think that this MNF contest sets up as more of a defensive contest. The Chargers are 1-3 after collapsing late last week and falling 38-31 to the Bucs. New Orleans is now 2-2 after beating the Lions on the road 35-29. Chargers' rookie QB Justin Herbert had 290 passing yards with three TD's last weekend, but regression seems imminent in this difficult road venue. LA's defense has been a strong point despite the crummy second half vs. the Bucs last week, allowing only 23.8 PPG. 

The pick: The Saints are going to have to figure out things on the defensive end if they have any hopes of competing this year. Brees is down a few weapons this weekend as well, as  TE Jason Vander Laan, WR Michael Thomas, TE Cole Wick are all out. That means that Brees is going to have to lean on Alvin Kamara to chew up clock and keep this aggressive Chargers' pass rush honest. No Monday Night shootout here, this one screams under!

This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Chargers/Saints.

The set-up: Two contrasting styles of play here, as Indianapolis gets the job done with defense, while the Browns try to run their opponents off the field with their high-powered offense. The Colts are averaging 25.8 PPG and they're allowing 14. The Browns are averaging 31.0 and they're conceding 31.5. 

The pick: But Cleveland has averaged 39.3 PPG over its last three and this offense is firing on all cylinders. The Colts will have their hands full with Nick Chubb and this Browns rushing game which leads the NFL. Baker Mayfield is dual threat himself. I think this is a big opportunity for Cleveland's defense as well, as the Colts don't ask Philip Rivers to ever do too much. I'm all over Cleveland in this one.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Cleveland Browns.

The set-up: Jacksonville somehow upset the Colts in Week 1, but it's since gone 0-3 since that victory. The Texans clearly enter as the hungrier team, as they're 0-4 and they just finished firing their general manager and head coach in Bill O'Brien. The Texans have played four straight tough defenses, but now they face one of the worst defenses in the entire league. Houston's JJ Watt is furious right now and he'll be taking it upon himself to lead the unit on that side of the field. The combination of DeShaun Watson and David Johnson will be just too much for Gardner Minshew and this undermanned Jaguars team to keep up with down the stretch.

The pick: Note that the Texans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after two or more SU/ATS losses as well. I think the coaching change finally wakes up Watson and company and I expect this one to be a rout from start to finish. Lay the points.

This is a 9* ATS BLOWOUT on the Houston Texans.

The set-up: Arizona is overhyped and it's clearly dealing with chemistry issues. Sam Darnold is probably better than Joe Flacco, but the Jets defense is going to have its opportunities today. So far New York has seven picks and six sacks through four games. 

The pick: The Cardinals just lost to the Panthers, so to try and pretend they don't have issues across all three phases would be a mistake as well. Last week Arizona had zero sacks vs. Teddy Bridgewater. Arizona admittedly has the better talent, but that talent is having big chemistry issues. The Jets are the desperate and winless home side. I'm grabbing the points and expecting this one to come right down to the wire.

This is an 8* PLAY-BOOK on the New York Jets.

The set-up: Both teams are 3-1, but the Bears played three "cream puffs" to open the season. Chicago fell 19-11 to the Colts last weekend though and now it faces another tough defense in Tampa. I expect the home side to play it conservatively here as it looks to take the pressure off of Nick Foles. The Bears are only averaging 21.3 PPG so far this season. 

The pick: The Bucs have looked pretty good on both sides of the ball since their Week 1 loss to the Saints, but after Tom Brady rallied his team for a 38-31 win over the Chargers last weekend, throwing four second half TD's, I think that the visitors come in "gassed" here. A short week for Brady, means that Tampa will also be looking to alleviate pressure off their older QB and establish the run game from the outset. This one sets up great as a lower-scoring "chess match" in my opinion. 

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Bucs/Bears.

The set-up: The Falcons are 0-3. Atlanta has sizeable leads in each of its losses, only to choke it away late. This is a dejected Falcons side and I think it'll have difficulty summoning up the energy to go toe to toe with the red hot Packers on Monday night. Matt Ryan has been a bright spot for Atlanta, as he has seven TD's and just two INT's. The Falcons defense has been terrible, allowing 36 PPG. 

The pick: Aaron Rodgers and company don't need to "pad stats" after a 3-0 start though. Green Bay is in a good spot and it doesn't need to run up this score to win this contest. From a situational stand point, I think this number is much too high, but also note that Green Bay has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after a three-games or longer unbeaten streak. These are two "gun-slinging" veteran QB's going head-to-head, but look for a more conservative game-plan from each. This number is a tad high, the play is the under.

This is a 10* TOTAL MADNESS on the UNDER Falcons/Packers.

The set-up: This sets up well from a situational stand point. These teams were prepared to play on Sunday, but the Cam Newton covid scare delayed the contest. Now Cam is out and veteran backup Brian Hoyer will be asked to "manage" this contest. Expect the Pats to lean on their ground game in KC, with Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead dominating the carries (Pats are No. 1 in the league running the ball with 178 rushing yards per game.) 

The pick: KC is in zero threat of losing this game. After the Chiefs go up big early, look for them to take the foot off the gas, to run the clock and avoid serious injury. The Chiefs have allowed exactly 20 points in each of their first three games, but I have a hard time seeing Hoyer and company getting to that mark. This number is a tad high, the play is the under.

This is an 8* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Pats/Chiefs.

The set-up: I'm not predicting an outright upset, but I do think that the Giants can comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch here. New York is coming off a 36-9 loss to San Francisco at home, so clearly not many are giving them much of a chance in this one. The Rams are coming off a heart-breaking loss on the road in Buffalo and with a "cream puff" matchup in Washington next weekend, the possibility of them taking the foot off the gas in the second half is big. 

The pick: The Giants are playing for pride here as they look to get off the schneid. Note that New York is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after three straight SU/ATS losses. No outright, but closer than expected.

This is an 8* COACH'S CORNER on the New York Giants.

The set-up: New Orleans will look to avoid an 1-3 hole here. The Saints catch a complacent Lions team off an improbable road win in Arizona. The Lions are allowing 30.7 PPG and they're scoring only 23.3. 

The pick: The Saints are the better team through all three phases here and from a situational stand point, it sets up well for them in the dome at Ford Field, but also note that the Lions are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 as an underdog, while New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road favorite. Lay the points, expect a blowout.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the New Orleans Saints.

The set-up: Neither team has looked great this year. Each has looked terrible defensively. However, I think that trend starts to change this week with this sky-high total. 

The pick: Dallas has also seen the total go "under" the number in ten of its last 15 after allowing 35 points or more in a road loss in its previous outing. Both team's defenses have severely under-performed this year, so expect that lop-sided trend to end here. This number is too high in my opinion. 

This is a 9* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Browns/Cowboys.

The set-up: The spread and total in this game have moved quite a bit over the last couple of days. The Jets were a 3-point underdog to open, but now they're a -2 point fav at some places. This total opened at 40, it dropped to as low as 39.5 and now it's 41.5. None of these line movements is overally significant though and regardless of all of that anyways, I think this total is much too low as I expect it to blast past early in the second half. I think it sets up well from a situational stand point. Defenses on both sides are terrible. Both teams are desperate for a win after starting 0-3. The National stage adds incentive to perform as well. When you add it all up from a situational stand point, I absolutely think this number is too low. 

The pick: Also note that Denver has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last ten road games after three straight SU losses. This number is indeed low, the play is the over.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Broncos/Jets.

The set-up: Clearly the Jets are a terrible team, but they come in 0-2 SU/ATS and their season is essentially on the line here. I acknowlege their many issues across all three phases, but one thing we don't have to worry about is New York's resolve and determination today and I think that's significant. Indianapolis has been mediocre thus far and with back-to-back tough road games at CHicago and Cleveland, I think the home side will take the foot off the gas and get caught "looking ahead" as well.

The pick: And finally note that: How do NFL teams that start 0-2 ATS perform in Week 3:

Last 4 Seasons: 22-7 ATS (75.9%)

Last 10 Seasons: 47-28 ATS (62.7%)

This is an 8* DESTROYER on the New York Jets.

The set-up: I think many believe that the Raiders will have a "letdown" here after their big Monday Night Football win at home over the Saints, but I don't. I think many also believe that the Patriots are going to explode here after their close setback in Seattle last Sunday night, but I don't. The Patriots looked pretty mediocre at home in their Week 1 win over the Dolphins and I think they'll have their hands full here vs. this Raiders team which is suddenly firing on all cylinders. Derek Carr had 282 yards passing and three TD's, while Josh Jacobs had 88 yards on 27 carries, after running for 93 yards and three TD's in Week 1. The defense has been the weak point, but the offense has a 75 percent success rate in the red zone. 

The pick: Cam Newton had 397 yards passing vs. the Seahawks last week, but Seattle's defense is a mess. Newton has been great early, but RB Sony Michel has been a no show for the most part, last week he posted 56 yards. Last week the Pats' defense was lit up for 35 points and I believe it'll struggle again here vs. this dynamic Raiders' offenese. I think the Raiders are playing better through all three phases and while I'll stop short in calling for an outright upset, everything points to this one being a "nail biter." 

This is an 8* ANNIHILATOR on the Las Vegas Raiders.

The set-up:

The pick:

This is an 8* FALSE-FAVORITE on the Minnesota Vikings.