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College Football Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
09-27-14	Miami (OH) v. Buffalo UNDER 57.5	Top	27-35	Loss	-112	54 h 49 m	Show
Miami of Ohio has one of the worst offenses in the country devoid of skill position talent and averaging fewer than 18 points a game. RedHawk quarterbacks have been picked off six times this season. Their ground attack hasn't been any better averaging less than 74 yards per game and scoring only once. Buffalo's defense should be able to handle the RedHawks, especially playing at home. The Bulls do have a slightly better quarterback, Joe Licata. But Buffalo doesn't have a great multi-offense either minus their top offensive player from last year, running back Branden Oliver. I don't give much credence to their 36-7 win over Norfolk State last week. Note that the under has cashed in 17 of the Bulls' last 25 home games and in 10 of the Bulls' past 14 MAC games.
09-27-14	Wyoming v. Michigan State OVER 49		14-56	Win	100	50 h 16 m	Show
Michigan State isn't just about defense. The Spartans have scored 145 points in their first three games. They can bury lesser opponents as they showed last week running up 73 points against Eastern Michigan. The Spartans primarily run the ball, but quarterback Connor Cook has completed almost 70 percent of his passes this season with seven touchdowns. Wyoming ranks 75th in run defense giving up 161 yards on the ground per game. Cook should be in favorable second and short yardage many times. The over has cashed in Michigan State's past four home games. Wyoming shouldn't be intimidated after having already played at No. 4 Oregon and losing, 48-14. The Cowboys have a good running back, receiver and place-kicker. Michigan State plays great defense, but has been prone to give up a big play.
09-20-14	UMass v. Penn State OVER 47		7-48	Win	100	36 h 47 m	Show
UMass is much improved offensively from last season. The Minutemen have put up 69 points and more than 700 yards combined during their last two games. Penn State is tough versus the run, but the Minutemen can test the Nittany Lions through the air. UMass quarterback Blake Frohnapfel and wide receiver Tajae Sharpe have proven to be a good combination. Sharpe has hauled in 15 passes for 246 yards. Penn State quarterback Christian Hackenberg has thrown for 1,082 yards while completing 62.2 percent of his passes. He is an emerging talent. He can correct Penn State's red zone difficulties against such a weak defense as the Minutemen are giving up 35 points per game and more than 417 yards per game.
09-13-14	Iowa State v. Iowa OVER 49.5	Top	20-17	Loss	-110	46 h 21 m	Show
This has been an under series with seven of the last nine going below the total. But I see more scoring than the oddsmaker does in this year's annual in-state rivalry matchup. Iowa is known for producing outstanding offensive linemen and this year isn't an exception. Brandon Scherff could be one of the three best tackles in the nation. The Hawkeyes also are strong at center with Austin Blythe and guard Jordan Walsh is very good, too. I also like the Hawkeyes' passing attack behind improved quarterback Jake Rudock. I see him passing for 3,000 yards this season. The Hawkeyes can put up lots of points on Iowa State, which has a leaky defensive front and must prove it can stop the run after allowing 33 rushing scores last year and 5.35 yards per carry. Through two games, the Cyclones are giving up 33 points a game, rank 110th in defensive yards and 121st in rushing yards allowed. Iowa State can put up points, though, with 11 experience players back from last year. Mark Mangino is a better offensive coordinator than head coach. You can't compete in the Big 12 if you don't have offense and the Cyclones have offense.
09-06-14	Texas Tech v. UTEP OVER 65.5		30-26	Loss	-105	11 h 18 m	Show
Kliff Kingsbury and Texas Tech can be trusted to put up a lot of points here. Red Raiders quarterback Davis Webb emerged last year and he looked good opening week completing 39-of-52 passes for 452 yards and four touchdowns against Central Arkansas. Texas Tech should have no problem putting up at least 40 points. The Miners surrendered 41 or more points in five of their last six games. UTEP has an improved offense. The Miners can get their share of points against the Red Raiders, who yielded an average of 48.6 points during their last five regular season games last year and have not noticeably improved defensively this season. They gave up 35 points to Central Arkansas in their opener last week.
09-06-14	Middle Tennessee State v. Minnesota OVER 52.5	Top	24-35	Win	100	69 h 40 m	Show
I was impressed by Minnesota's offense in a 42-20 victory last week versus Eastern Illinois. The Gophers have good running backs and a solid offensive line that averages 6-foot-4, 310 pounds. I see them overwhelming Middle Tennessee, which doesn't have Big Ten size or talent. The Blue Raiders, though, have always had respectable offenses under Rick Stockstill, the former Florida State quarterback. They scored 42 or more points in four of their last six games last season. It is alarming that Minnesota gave up 409 yards and 27 first downs to Eastern Illinois and bodes well for Middle Tennessee.
08-30-14	UTEP v. New Mexico UNDER 66.5		31-24	Win	100	62 h 28 m	Show
New Mexico is a running team with an improved defense. UTEP also looks to be better in Sean Kugler's second season. Their entire coaching staff returned entact. The Lobos no longer have workhorse running back Kasey Carrier, who rushed for 291 yards and four touchdowns when New Mexico beat UTEP, 42-35, in overtime last season. I don't expect that many points to be scored in this year's heated rivalry. I'm not a fan of Miners' quarterback Jameill Showers. I'm also not high on the passing skills of Lobos' signal-caller Cole Gautsche, who completed less than 45 percent of his throws last season. The perception is these two defenses are terrible. They were last year. But I see some improvement, coupled with inefficient passing quarterbacks and a high total. That's an under formula.
08-29-14	Colorado State v. Colorado UNDER 59	Top	31-17	Win	100	17 h 51 m	Show
The under has cashed in five of the past six meetings in this in-state rivalry matchup. Both defenses look improved from last year, while each offense is missing a key piece. Colorado State is without Kapri Bibbs, who rushed for 1,741 yards on 281 carries and scored 31 touchdowns last season. He's going to be very hard to replace. On the flip side, the Rams look better on defense with two very good linebackers and an experienced secondary. The Rams are inexperienced on the defensive line, which could mean more running plays for Colorado. The Buffaloes generated less than 26 points per game last season despite scoring a combined 81 points against Central Arkansas and Charleston Southern. They were held to 20 points or less in six of nine Pac-12 games. Sophomore quarterback Sefo Liufau is going to miss star wide receiver Paul Richardson, who accounted for 10 of Colorado's 21 receiving touchdowns. There could be a weather factor, too, as there is a chance of a thunderstorm.
08-28-14	Texas A&M v. South Carolina OVER 60.5	Top	52-28	Win	100	26 h 45 m	Show
I see far more scoring than the oddsmaker sees in this matchup, so much more that this rates as my August Total of the Month. South Carolina averaged 34.1 points last year and has 8 starters back. Steve Spurrier has a well designed offense that doesn't need departed quarterback Connor Shaw to be successful especially when facing such a bad defense as the Aggies. Texas A&M surrendered more than 32 points last year and finished 109th in yardage. Its defense doesn't look any better this year. The Aggies are going to continue to put up points even without Johnny Manziel. New starting quarterback Kenny Hill can run and throw at a level close to Manziel's. The Aggies have good running backs and two tough to cover receivers in 6-foot-6, 277-pound tight end Cam Clear and Ricky Seals-Jones, who is 6-5, 235. The Aggies use them as double tight ends causing serious matchup problems. Keep in mind, too, the Gamecocks are without last year defensive stars Jadeveon Clowney and Kelcey Quarles.
12-23-13	Ohio v. East Carolina OVER 61.5	Top	20-37	Loss	-111	117 h 44 m	Show
The oddsmaker has misread East Carolina for the last half of the season. The Pirates have gone over the total in six of their last seven. I'm a strong believer in their offense after they scored 55 on North Carolina and 42 on North Carolina State. Both teams have balanced attacks with very good quarterbacks. East Carolina's Shane Carden is one of the best. He has averaged 27.5 touchdown passes during the past two seasons. Led by Carden, the Pirates ranked fourth in the nation in points per game at 40.4. Carden has a big-play receiver in Justin Hardy and a solid running back in Vintavious Cooper. The game is going to be played indoors on the fast track at Tropicana Park in St. Petersburg, Fla. East Carolina has gone over the total in seven of its last eight games at neutral sites. The Pirates' speed should cause problems for Ohio especially on carpet. Ohio's offense wasn't as consistent as East Carolina, but the Bobcats did score at least 38 points in five of their last nine games. They, too, have a solid quarterback in Tyler Tettleton, who has been at his best during Ohio's bowl games the past two seasons.
12-21-13	Colorado State v. Washington State OVER 65		48-45	Win	100	84 h 38 m	Show
Washington State coach Mike Leach isn't adverse to running up a lot of points. His pass-happy Cougars certainly will try to do that in the New Mexico Bowl and they have the right team to do it against - Colorado State. The Rams rank 109th out of 123 teams in pass defense. Colorado State has this terrible ranking despite getting to play against three option teams who rarely pass - Cal Poly SLO, New Mexico and Air Force. Washington State throws the ball more than any team behind Connor Halliday. That's Leach philosophy. Colorado State is no slouch offensively either. The Rams are far more balanced. They have one of the better running backs in the league in Kapri Bibbs. The Rams are a top 30 team in points and yards per game. There's a chance of snow, but the wind won't be brisk at about 10 mph. Both teams are used to playing in cold weather so that shouldn't factor. So look for a fun matchup between two teams excited to be in a bowl game with plenty of scoring.
11-30-13	Virginia Tech v. Virginia OVER 41.5	Top	16-6	Loss	-114	28 h 27 m	Show
It's nice to be able to play into a total this low when both teams figure to throw the ball at least 30 times. Virginia has become a passing team while its defense has slipped. The Cavaliers are allowing 42 points a game during their past seven matchups, all of which have gone over the total. Virginia Tech's defense has slipped, too, giving up 28.3 points per game in its past three contests. At quarterback the Hokies have Logan Thomas, who owns many of the school's passing records. Thomas won't have to worry about NCAA interception leader Anthony Harris for the first half. Harris will miss the first two quarters after being ejected for targeting during the second half of the Cavaliers' loss to Miami. The Cavaliers will continue to throw a lot has they try both David Watford and freshman Greyson Lambert at quarterback. Weather shouldn't factor as the forecast is sunny with temperatures in the 40s and just slight wind.
11-23-13	East Carolina v. North Carolina State OVER 55		42-28	Win	100	21 h 34 m	Show
I envision a lot of fireworks in this late season, non-conference matchup. East Carolina is 10th in the nation in scoring averaging 41.5 points a game. Pirates quarterback Shane Carden is completing 72.5 percent of his throws. Carden should have an effective day with play-action as North Carolina State is weak in run defense. The Pirates put up 55 points on North Carolina earlier this season. North Carolina State has gone over in 12 of its past 16 home games when playing an opponent with a winning road record. The Pirates have gone over in 11 of their last 14 November games.
11-16-13	San Diego State v. Hawaii OVER 58.5		28-21	Loss	-106	34 h 5 m	Show
San Diego State's balanced offense should score at will against Hawaii, which is giving up 37.3 points per game. The Rainbow Warriors rank 109th in total defense allowing 470.9 yards per game. The Aztecs are averaging 35 points in their last five games. However, San Diego State also has yielded an average of 31.8 points in its last five games. The over has cashed in nine of Hawaii's last 11 home games.
11-16-13	Oregon State v. Arizona State OVER 63.5		17-30	Loss	-111	33 h 6 m	Show
There is going to be a ton of scoring in this matchup with neither team looking to run much at all. Oregon State, behind prolific passer Sean Mannion, is averaging 37.2 points per game. That total goes up to 46.5 points a game when the Beavers are on the road. Until they were held to 20 points by Utah, Arizona had averaged 54 points in its three previous games. The Sun Devils have scored 53 or more points five times this season. Oregon State has gone over in 10 of its last 14 games while Arizona State has gone above the total in 26 of its last 36 games.
11-09-13	San Diego State v. San Jose State OVER 56	Top	34-30	Win	100	50 h 7 m	Show
Based on how these offenses have found their groove and the weakness of the two defenses, I expect to see this total soar above the posted over. San Diego State is averaging 35.2 points in its last four games. The Aztecs' offense is better under quarterback Quinn Kaehler and their offensive line has stabilized. San Jose State ranks 93rd in total defense. The Spartans are averaging 39 points in their last four games. David Fales is one of the better quarterbacks in the country, but since their fifth game the Spartans have averaged 216 yards rushing per contest. San Diego State ranks 108th in pass defense.
11-02-13	New Mexico v. San Diego State OVER 56	Top	30-35	Win	100	47 h 34 m	Show
You know San Diego State is going to gets its points against New Mexico. The Aztecs are averaging 32.4 points in their last five games and have the balanced attack and skill position players to take full advantage of a woeful Lobos defense than ranks 116th in total defense allowing 480.4 yards per game and is 115th in scoring defense permitting 37.3 points a game. San Diego State very well could have beaten both Oregon State and Fresno State last Saturday night losing in overtime to the Bulldogs. New Mexico, though, can put up its share of points, too. The Aztecs didn't dispatch hapless New Mexico State until the fourth quarter when they played the Aggies. New Mexico ran for an unbelievable 541 yards against the Aggies. The Lobos run a bizarre option offense that ranks No. 3 in rushing yards. Running back Kasey Carrier averages 122.6 rushing yards per game while quarterback Cole Gautsche averages 87.2 yards on the ground. The Lobos have run for 24 touchdowns. New Mexico's option attack is going to be quite a contrast for San Diego State after just playing Fresno State.
11-02-13	Clemson v. Virginia OVER 54.5		59-10	Win	100	61 h 33 m	Show
Clemson's offense has cooled off a bit, but still averages 37.4 points a game. The Tigers should get back on track with a scoring explosion against the Cavaliers. Clemson's star quarterback Tajh Boyd is healthier than he has been the past couple of weeks and the Cavaliers have fallen apart on defense giving up an average of 36.2 points during their past four games. Virginia's defense suffered a key blow when defensive tackle Brent Urban was injured three weeks ago. The Cavaliers haven't been able to slow opponents down since. Virginia is passing more than ever. Last week, Cavaliers quarterback David Watford set a school record for passing attempts (61) and completions (43) in throwing for 376 yards against Georgia Tech. Clemson is going to score a lot of points so Watford figures to be passing a lot again.
10-26-13	Colorado State v. Hawaii OVER 55		35-28	Win	100	37 h 14 m	Show
Hawaii's offense is coming on, but its defense remains bad. Hawaii is going to have difficulty containing improved Colorado State quarterback Garrett Grayson, who has been doing a good job of getting everyone involved in the Rams' passing attack. Hawaii is up to 25th in the nation in passing. However, its defense is surrendering 35.3 points a game and 475.8 yards. Colorado State is averaging 33.1 points a game while giving up 31. The Rams rank 103rd in total defense allowing 451.1 yards a game. The two teams combined for 69 points last season when they met.
10-26-13	Fresno State v. San Diego State OVER 61.5	Top	35-28	Win	100	36 h 43 m	Show
This is my college football total of the year. The total is high, but not high enough to account for what is going to be offensive fireworks. Derek Carr is setting Fresno State quarterback records. He has three excellent wide receivers. San Diego State doesn't have nearly the defensive backfield to stay with all three. The Aztecs rank 111th in pass defense. They have been burned by good quarterbacks all season and even allowed run-oriented Air Force to complete 65 percent of its passes. Sparked by Carr, the Bulldogs ranked fifth in the nation in scoring at 45.8 points per game and fifth in yards at 555.2. Their defense, though, is giving up 30.2 points a game. San Diego State is getting a lift with the emergence of freshman running back Donnel Pumphrey. San Diego State is averaging nearly 28 points a game and 415 yards per game. The Aztecs, however, yield 32.7 points per game, which ranks them 99th. San Diego State quarterback Quinn Kaehler also has stepped up throwing six touchdown passes in the last two games. Fresno State had allowed 348 yards or more in three of their last four games before playing Idaho and UNLV. The Aztecs also have dangerous return men on special teams.
10-19-13	South Carolina v. Tennessee OVER 54	Top	21-23	Loss	-110	38 h 27 m	Show
This probably is South Carolina's best offense in Steve Spurrier's eight years there. Quarterback Connor Shaw and running back Mike Davis are enjoying big seasons. Tennessee is giving up an average of 35.7 points per game and 471.3 yards per game. So South Carolina is going to get its points. I see Tennessee scoring its share of points, too. Running back Rajion Neal has emerged to rush for 317 yards and score three touchdowns in his last two games. The Volunteers' ground attack is further bolstered by the expected return of Martin Lane. Tennessee has gone above the total in eight of its last 11 home games. South Carolina has gone over during its past eight SEC games.
10-12-13	Georgia Tech v. BYU UNDER 54.5	Top	20-38	Loss	-110	33 h 32 m	Show
BYU coach Bronco Mendenhall has become a master at preparing his defense to stop option offenses. The Cougars host Georgia Tech, which runs a triple option attack. The Cougars are familiar with the Yellow Jackets. They played them last year and held them to a puny 157 yards and no touchdowns on offense. Georgia Tech failed to make a first down in 10 tries in that game. BYU is holding foes to less than 17 points a game. The Cougars have allowed only eight rushing touchdowns during their past 17 games. This is a flat spot, too, for Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets were in balmy Miami last week where the temperature was close to 90. Now they have to travel cross country for this non-conference game into the mountains and high altitude. Georgia Tech does have a good defense, ranking 19th in the country in total defense and 25th in scoring defense allowing 19 points a game. The Cougars have scored less than 17 points in 40 percent of their games this season.
10-05-13	Missouri v. Vanderbilt OVER 56		51-28	Win	100	31 h 43 m	Show
Considering how well these offenses are in sync, I see this total as being too low. Missouri is averaging 45.5 points. That's eighth best in the nation. James Franklin has erased doubts about his talents and ability to stay healthy by having a big season. He's thrown for 1,129 yards and nine touchdowns. The Tigers are well balanced with two good runners and a top receiver in Dorial Green-Beckham. Vanderbilt has stepped up its offense. The Commodores are now averaging 34.8 points per game. Austyn Carta-Samuels has completed 73.2 percent of his throws during the last two games. He has one of the top wide receivers in the country in Jordan Matthews.
10-04-13	BYU v. Utah State UNDER 58	Top	31-14	Win	100	25 h 60 m	Show
At some point the oddsmaker has to realize BYU doesn't have a very good offense. The Cougars have gone under the total in their last two games by a combined 39 points. BYU does play outstanding defense under Bronco Mendenhall. Utah State, though, has kept up its outstanding defensive play, too, despite a coaching change from Gary Andersen to Matt Wells. There was a combined total of just nine points scored when then these two teams met last season. It was the sixth straight time the under has cashed in this series. The Cougars have gone under in 11 of their last 12 Friday games. Utah State has gone under during the last five times it has played on Friday. The under has cashed in 14 of Utah State's last 20 games. The Aggies have excellent linebackers. BYU has had problems passing. The Cougars managed only 16 points versus Virginia and 13 against Utah. They were held to under 200 yards in each of those games.
09-28-13	Virginia v. Pittsburgh OVER 50.5	Top	3-14	Loss	-110	24 h 41 m	Show
Pittsburgh scored more than this total by itself last week putting up 58. That was against defenseless Duke, though. Can the Panthers maintain their huge offensive input? Their offense is much improved and quarterback Tom Savage now is playing with a lot of confidence. The Panthers have scored a combined 107 points in their last two games. Savage has one of the best wide receivers in the country in Devin Street and true freshman Tyler Boyd emerged to haul in three touchdowns against Duke. Boyd has been over 130 receiving yards each of the last two weeks. The Panthers must have a balanced attack, though, to make Savage most effective and they've been getting that from running back James Conner, who has rushed for nearly 300 yards and scored three touchdowns the past two weeks. Virginia put up 49 points last week against VMI. The Cavaliers have a potential dual threat in quarterback David Wattford, who is a better runner than passer at this stage. The Cavaliers had two runners produce 100 yards rushing so Wattford has the ground attack to set up play-action.
09-21-13	Utah v. BYU UNDER 61.5		20-13	Win	100	54 h 17 m	Show
Big rivalry game with lots of emotion. That often can favor defense. There were just 46 points scored in last year's game won by Utah, 25-21. I see lots of running in this game, which eats clock. BYU ranks 111th in passing. Cougars Taysom Hill is a running quarterback. He's a good runner, but is just 22-for-66 throwing for 304 yards with more interceptions than touchdown throws. The Utes should be better prepared for Hill having already faced Chuckie Keeton, one of the better dual threat quarterbacks in the country. The Cougars scored 40 against Texas, but previous to that had put up just 16 points against Virginia. BYU ranks 36th in defense. The Cougars are holding foes to 3.0 yards per rush with a veteran defensive front and four good linebackers. Utah quarterback Travis Wilson can make big plays with his arm, but he also is still learning to read defenses better. He was picked off three times in the second half during last week's game against Oregon State.
09-07-13	Washington State v. USC OVER 53.5		10-7	Loss	-110	37 h 49 m	Show
I see Washington State scoring a lot of points now that the Cougars are in the second year of running Mike Leach's high octane offense. The Cougars are pass happy under Leach. Connor Halliday threw 65 times in the Cougars' opening 31-24 road loss to Auburn. He completed 35 of those for 344 yards and a touchdown. The Cougars also rushed for 120 yards and only gave up two sacks in generating 464 total yards. Halliday has his four starting receivers back from last year. Southern Cal is going to put up a lot of points against the Cougars, who gave up an average of 30 points per game during their last 11 games last year. The Trojans' passing attack should be sharper with quarterbacks Cody Kessler and Max Wittek each getting snaps after both played last week in a 30-13 road win last week against Hawaii. They have one of the best wide receivers in the nation to throw to in Marquise Lee.
09-01-13	Colorado v. Colorado State OVER 48.5	Top	41-27	Win	100	24 h 41 m	Show
Two strong offensive coaches coupled with two bad defenses and a lower than expected total make this an over play. New Colorado coach Mike MacIntyre did wonders at San Jose State. The Spartans ranked sixth in passing last season. Now MacIntyre has installed his version of a Pistol offense at Colorado. The Buffaloes are well coached in the offensive line and have decent skill position players, including running back Christian Powell and wide receiver Paul Richardson, who was becoming one of the better receivers in the Pac-12 two years ago but missed last year because of an ACL tear. Richardson is a big time talent that the oddsmaker didn't consider when he put out this total. Colorado State coach Jim McElwain should be able to work with quarterback Conner Smith, who has a big arm. The Rams, though, will move the sticks through the ground. They have two very good runners - Donnell Alexander and Chris Nwoke - and a veteran offensive line returning four starters. Neither defense has been any good. The Buffaloes have surrendered 30 or more points in each of their last 11 games.
08-31-13	Central Michigan v. Michigan OVER 52		9-59	Win	100	50 h 46 m	Show
This total is too low. Michigan is a heavy favorite, but Central Michigan can contribute its share of points. The Chippewas have a big time running back, Zurlon Tipton, a solid offensive line and speed at the flanks. Tipton rushed for just under 1,500 yards last year while scoring 19 touchdowns. The over has cashed 68 percent of the time during Central Michigan's last 51 road games. Michigan doesn't have much of a pass rush and its best pass rusher, Jake Ryan, is out after suffering a torn ACL during the offseason. The Wolverines should do plenty of damage facing an opponent that was 100th in sacks and second to last in the country in tackles for losses. Devin Gardner is a great athlete and proved he could replace Denard Robinson. Gardner actually is better suited to coach Brady Hoke's pro-style offense than Robinson was. The Wolverines have a strong running attack, good enough receivers and excellent offensive tackles.

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