Rocketmansports.net - Free Picks from Expert Hanidcappers

Become a Facebook Fan!

Follow Me on Twitter!

College Football Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
11-17-21	Central Michigan v. Ball State UNDER 59.5	Top	37-17	Win	100	21 h 15 m	Show
Considering the weather forecast for Muncie, Ind., the total on this game is too high. There's a 90 percent chance of rain with winds in the 10-to-20 mph range. That's going to hurt the passing attack of both teams and means more running plays. Central Michigan ranks a respectable 56th versus the run. Ball State is a bend-but-not-break type of defense. You can move the ball on the Cardinals, but they don't give up many explosive plays. The Under has cashed the last six times Ball State has played at home.
11-13-21	Nevada v. San Diego State OVER 45		21-23	Loss	-110	28 h 42 m	Show
Granted San Diego State is the best defense Nevada has seen all season. But the Wolf Pack are going to get their share of points with QB Carson Strong and his strong group of receiving targets. Nevada is averaging 40 points in its last six games. The Wolf Pack lead the Mountain West Conference in scoring at 36.4 points. Strong is fourth in the nation in passing yards with 3,197 yards. He's completed 70.5 percent of his passes. San Diego State is going to hold up its end of the bargain, too, in getting this total Over. The Aztecs are a top-40 rushing team. Lucas Johnson is an upgrade for them at QB replacing Jordon Brookshire. The Wolf Pack rank 102nd in pass defense. So they can't stack the line to key on the run without being vulnerable in their already weak secondary.
11-13-21	NC State v. Wake Forest UNDER 66.5		42-45	Loss	-110	28 h 33 m	Show
Just because Wake Forest and North Carolina scored a combined 113 points in the Tar Heels' 58-55 win last week, doesn't mean the Demon Deacons are going to produce a ton of points this week. That was a deflating loss for them halting their unbeaten season and now they draw a tough defensive foe in North Carolina State. North Carolina managed just 23 points against Pittsburgh Thursday night. I expect Wake Forest's scoring will be down, too, from last week. North Carolina State ranks seventh in scoring defense giving up only 16 points a game. Only 17 teams give up fewer yards per game than the Wolfpack. North Carolina State hasn't topped 28 points in its last two games against Louisville and Florida State. Those are both below defenses.
11-13-21	South Alabama v. Appalachian State UNDER 52.5	Top	7-31	Win	100	23 h 53 m	Show
South Alabama is without its starting QB Jake Bentley, who is out with a knee injury. That puts more pressure on the Jaguars' ground attack, which hasn't been good. The Jaguars rank 96th in rushing. I don't expect South Alabama to score many points here. But the Jaguars do have a good defense. Only 16 teams give up fewer yards per game than South Alabama. The Jaguars are 21st in run defense. Appalachian State runs nearly 60 percent of the time. The Mountaineers will be content to run clock not taking chances against this weak foe, especially considering the weather forecast. Heavy winds in the 16-28 mph range are being forecast. This is a huge plus for the Under.
11-06-21	Oregon v. Washington UNDER 51		26-16	Win	100	34 h 34 m	Show
This is a bitter rivalry game as these teams recruit hard against each other. So I'm expecting an intense, defensive-minded game. Washington has the top pass defense in the country. The Huskies rank 17th in scoring defense holding foes to 18.9. They've held their past three opponents, all Pac-12 teams, to an average of 17.6 points. This is the game where the Ducks really could miss their best runner, CJ Verdell. He's out for the season. Oregon has intercepted 11 passes and features the No. 1 defensive lineman in the country, Kayvon Thibodeaux. He's being projected as the No. 1 pick in the draft. Rain and heavy wind are in the forecast, which are two more huge pluses for the Under.
11-06-21	Kansas State v. Kansas UNDER 57	Top	35-10	Win	100	96 h 11 m	Show
Don't expect many points in this in-state rivalry matchup. Not only are the offenses well below average, but so is the tempo. Both Kansas and Kansas State rank among the bottom 10 in pace. Kansas State ranks 93rd in total yards and 77th in scoring at 27.5 points. This is in the high-scoring Big 12 Conference, too. The Wildcats are much better defensively ranking in the top 50 in fewest yards and points allowed. They also have the 26th best rush defense, bad news for the Jayhawks. Kansas averages a puny 15.8 points a game. The Jayhawks rank 120th in total yards. They are averaging 11.7 points in their last four games - all versus Big 12 foes. The Jayhawks are terrible on defense, too. But surprisingly they don't give up that many explosive ways. Foes have to launch long drives to put up points on Kansas. This eats up clock. The Jayhaws should be their most fired-up against this opponent.
10-30-21	Arizona v. USC UNDER 56		34-41	Loss	-110	28 h 52 m	Show
A game involving winless Arizona shouldn't have a total this high. The Wildcats rank 127th in scoring at a meager 14.3 points a game. The Under has cashed in Arizona's last three games, winning by an average of more than 10 points under the total. The Wildcats, though, haven't quit on defense. They held Washington to seven points in the fourth quarter last week before losing, 21-16. Mistake-prone USC is in disarray. The Trojans have an interim coach and morale issues. They are averaging 21 points their last two games, losses to Notre Dame and Utah. USC QB Kedon Slovis entered this season highly-rated. But Slovis has put up mediocre numbers with a 9-to-6 TD-to-interception ratio.
10-30-21	Southern Miss v. Middle Tennessee State UNDER 48		10-35	Win	100	25 h 43 m	Show
Discount a 37-0 victory against Grambling, an FCS opponent, and Southern Mississippi hasn't scored more than 19 points all season. The Golden Eagles are averaging a puny 14.1 points. Southern Mississippi rushes for only 2.5 yards a carry and its QB's have combined to throw 11 interceptions and just seven TD's. The Golden Eagles are second to last in the nation in yards per play. Middle Tennessee State is tied with Iowa for the most takeaways with 20. The Golden Eagles, though, are better defensively. Their defensive numbers are skewed by giving up 63 points to Alabama. Middle Tennessee State ranks 104th in yards gained. Weather could factor here, too. Rain is expected with winds in the 12-20 mph range.
10-23-21	Oklahoma State v. Iowa State UNDER 47.5		21-24	Win	100	17 h 15 m	Show
Don't be fooled by some of the skill position stars such as Breece Hall, Jaylen Warren and Tay Martin. Defense is going to dominate more than offense. Iowa State has the best defense in the Big 12 surrendering 16.3 points and 251.3 yards. Oklahoma State will need to effectively run because its QB, Spencer Sanders, is such an inaccurate passer. The Cyclones rank 14th in rush defense holding foes to fewer than 100 yards rushing a game. Iowa State ranks 20th from the the bottom in tempo. The Cyclones play at a very leisurely pace. They are going to feed Hall the ball a lot. Oklahoma State ranks 15th in run defense. The Cowboys also hold foes to fewer than 100 yards rushing a game. Cowboys linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez leads the Big 12 in tackles.
10-23-21	Kent State v. Ohio OVER 65.5		34-27	Loss	-113	97 h 43 m	Show
These two MAC teams last played two seasons ago. There were 83 points scored. There could be that many points produced this time around, too. Kent State has a very good QB in Dustin Crum. The Golden Flashes' offensive statistics are skewed by the tough non-conference defenses they faced earlier in the season - Texas A&M, Maryland and Iowa. But since MAC play began, the Golden Flashes are averaging 35.3 points in their three conference games. A big thing about Kent State is it plays at the second fastest tempo in the country. Ohio gives up 30.7 points. The Bobcats rank 99th in yards allowed. The 1-6 Bobcats are bad. But they do one thing right - run the ball. Their QB, Armani Rogers, is a running quarterback. Only 31 teams average more yards on the ground than Ohio. Kent State ranks 121st in rush defense. So the Bobcats should be able to contribute their share of points. (Update: I put this play out early in the week anticipating the total would climb, which it has. Even though the line value is gone now, the handicap still holds. I expect there will be 70 or more combined points scored.)
10-16-21	Alabama v. Mississippi State OVER 57.5	Top	49-9	Win	100	26 h 16 m	Show
Alabama put up 41 points on Mississippi State last year. The Crimson Tide are in the mood to run up a score after getting upset, 41-38, by Texas A&M last week. The Crimson Tide average 44.3 points per game. Only five teams score more per game. Not surprisingly, Mississippi State is all about passing under Mike Leach. The Bulldogs rank fifth in the nation in passing yards. Zach Calzada burned Alabama for nearly 300 passing yards and 3 TD throws last week. Mississippi State QB Will Rogers is the second-most accurate passer in the country connecting on 75.7 percent of his throws. Rogers has thrown for 1,862 yards with a 14-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. So the Bulldogs should put up their share of points.
10-16-21	Vanderbilt v. South Carolina UNDER 51.5		20-21	Win	100	16 h 8 m	Show
These teams don't have strong defenses, but their offenses are terrible. Vanderbilt is last in the nation in scoring averaging 13.3 points in its six games. The Commodores are 121st in yards per game at 310.7. South Carolina ranks 108th in scoring at 22 points and is 112th in yards at 335. The Gamecocks also play at a very slow tempo. Vanderbilt passes more than South Carolina. However, the Gamecocks' defense strength is their secondary. They rank 12th in pass defense. Weather could factor, too, as there is a wind and a chance of rain.
10-16-21	Ohio v. Buffalo UNDER 57.5		26-27	Win	100	56 h 5 m	Show
Ohio has one of the worst offenses in the country. The Bobcats average just 19.3 points. They rank 119th in passing yards. The Bobcats are a running team, which eats clock. Buffalo ranks 95th in passing. The Bulls also like to run a lot. The Bulls' offense numbers are skewed because they opened the season scoring 69 points against Wagner, a non-Division I school. Another big key to the Under is weather. The forecast in Buffalo is for rain and heavy wind in the 20-to-35 mph range.
10-09-21	New Mexico State v. Nevada OVER 62.5	Top	28-55	Win	100	30 h 59 m	Show
Nevada averages more than 32 points a game and has one of the best QB's in the country, Carson Strong. New Mexico State is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation ranking 115th in scoring defense giving up 34.2 points and 113th in yards allowed at 449.8. It's safe to expect Nevada to put up at least 40 points on the Aggies. The key here is getting enough scoring from New Mexico State. I see that happening. The Aggies are a passing team, averaging 43 throws per game. It's a short passing attack, but they are not run-oriented at all. The Aggies have averaged 30 points per game in their last four matchups facing San Jose State, Hawaii, South Carolina State and New Mexico. The weather should be fine with no rain and little wind.
10-09-21	Florida State v. North Carolina OVER 63.5		35-25	Loss	-110	66 h 53 m	Show
North Carolina is averaging 37.6 points and has a top-20 offense spearheaded by one of the best QB's in college football, Sam Howell. But what's scary about the Tar Heels is they still have room to improve offensively. That could come against Florida State, which gives up 31.4 points and ranks 103rd in pass defense. Howell is on a streak of four straight 300 passing yards games. The Tar Heels are big favorites here, but I expect Florida State to contribute its share of points. North Carolina has a below average defense. Seminoles QB Jordan Travis holds the school record for most career rushing yards. The Tar Heels rank 72nd in rush defense. Their defense has come up with only three takeaways.
10-09-21	Georgia v. Auburn UNDER 47		34-10	Win	100	22 h 15 m	Show
Good luck to Bo Nix and Auburn's offense. They will need it here. Georgia is the No. 1 defensive team in the nation. The Bulldogs rank first in scoring defense giving up an insanely-low 4.6 points a game and are No. 1 in total yards and pass defense. Auburn has some good running backs. But the Bulldogs have the fourth-best run defense, too. Georgia is a running team. The Bulldogs probably are going to run even more than their 62 percent because their star QB, JT Daniels, isn't likely to play due to a back injury. The Bulldogs also play at a very slow tempo. Auburn ranks 15th in run defense giving up 90 yards on the ground and just 2.5 yards per carry.
10-02-21	Old Dominion v. UTEP OVER 48		21-28	Win	100	26 h 25 m	Show
This is a low total for a college game featuring two lower-scale defenses. Old Dominion gives up 32.3 points a game. UTEP yields nearly 25 points per game. The Monarchs can run the ball somewhat effectively. They also play at a fast tempo, which is a huge key. The perception with UTEP is that it can't produce points. That perception doesn't hold true anymore. The Miners actually have a couple of dangerous receiving weapons. Jacob Cowing averages 23.4 yards per catch, while Justin Garrett averages 17.4 7yards a reception. As a team, the Miners rank in the top 50 in yards per play.
10-02-21	Liberty v. UAB UNDER 50		36-12	Win	100	105 h 13 m	Show
Liberty draws attention because of Malik Willis, one of the best QB's in the country. But the Flames have one of the top defenses in the country, too, ranking 14th in fewest points and eighth in total yards. UAB couldn't step up in class when it played Georgia. The Blazers were blown out in that game. But playing foes at their level, the Blazers are very good. They have given up 27 points in their three other games. Both teams are run-oriented and play at a slow tempo. Liberty has pass protection issues that UAB can take advantage of.
10-02-21	Tulane v. East Carolina OVER 64		29-52	Win	100	91 h 13 m	Show
There are reasons why 11 of East Carolina's last 15 games have gone Over. The Pirates play up-tempo, have a good veteran QB in Holton Ahlers and a terrible defense that ranks 127th in yards allowed. Tulane also is far better on offense than defense. The Green Wave average 36.5 points, but surrender 37.3 points a game. This should be a fast-paced game where offenses totally dominate.
09-25-21	Arkansas State v. Tulsa OVER 62.5		34-41	Win	100	28 h 11 m	Show
Arkansas State gives up the most yards per play of any team in the country. Tulsa is stepping way down in class having played Ohio State and Oklahoma State in its last two games. The Golden Hurricane produced more than 500 yards against Ohio State and had 25 first downs. They are going to put up a lot of points on Arkansas State. But the Red Wolves are going to put up their share of points, too. They are a fast-paced team with two decent QB's and three excellent wide receivers. Arkansas State throws 62 percent of the time. Tulsa's defense is down from last year, no longer having superstar linebacker Zaven Collins.
09-25-21	Colorado State v. Iowa UNDER 44.5	Top	14-24	Win	100	30 h 27 m	Show
Colorado State has quarterback issues. The Rams rank 107th in scoring at 22 points a game. They are not going to dent Iowa's elite defense, which gives up the fourth-fewest points per game in the country. The Hawkeyes have accomplished this against respectable offenses, too, holding Iowa State to 17 points and Kent State to seven points during their last two games. The Rams also are going to be missing their most dangerous wide receiver, Dante Wright. He isn't expected to play because of a knee injury. Iowa lacks an explosive offense. The Hawkeyes are conservative and slow-paced. They play a grind-out style that keeps the clock moving. So it's not a fluke the Under has won 75 percent during the past 21 times Iowa has been a home favorite going 15-5-1.
09-23-21	Marshall v. Appalachian State OVER 56.5	Top	30-31	Win	100	77 h 32 m	Show
The oddsmaker opened this total too low given the quality of QB's and Marshall's overrated defense. The Thundering Herd averages 43.7 points while playing at one of the fastest paces in the nation. They also rank No. 2 in total yards and No. 3 in passing yards behind Grant Wells. Appalachian State is an above average offensive team. Chase Brice has looked good under center for the Mountaineers and Camerun Peoples is one of the better running backs in Conference USA. The Mountaineers are going against a Marshall defense that isn't as good as people thought after the Thundering Herd surrendered 42 points to East Carolina.
09-18-21	Oklahoma State v. Boise State UNDER 57.5		21-20	Win	100	26 h 50 m	Show
Oklahoma State and Boise State aren't the offensive powerhouses of past seasons. Yet the perception is there that they are. Oklahoma State has a banged-up wide receiver corps. The Cowboys' run-blocking hasn't been good. Boise State is averaging only 2.4 yards when it runs the ball. So the Broncos have trouble run-blocking, too. I'm also not sold on Hank Bachmneier as the next great Boise State QB. The weather can get tricky in Boise. That very well could be the case here as there's a chance of rain with winds in the 15-25 mph range.
09-18-21	Auburn v. Penn State UNDER 53		20-28	Win	100	24 h 21 m	Show
Seeing is believing. Auburn and Penn State have dominant defenses. Auburn has played a pair of lightweights, but still only gave up 10 points to Alabama State and Akron. The Tigers have the pass rushers in T.D. Moultry and Marquis Banks to harass Sean Clifford, who regressed last season. The Nittany Lions don't have the outstanding running back either of previous years. Likewise, Auburn isn't going to find things easy on offense operating against a tough Penn State defense that held its previous two opponents, Wisconsin and Ball State, to a combined 23 points. Auburn QB Bo Nixon has a history of playing worse on the road where he has more interceptions than touchdowns.
09-18-21	Virginia Tech v. West Virginia UNDER 50.5		21-27	Win	100	33 h 19 m	Show
Virginia Tech is showing signs of having one of the top defenses in the country. The Hokies held North Carolina and its superstar QB Sam Howell to 10 points and then held Middle Tennessee State to 14 points. The Hokies have permitted 703 yards combined, recorded nine sacks and have four interceptions. West Virginia is no slouch defensively either. The Mountaineers are tough against the run. Virginia Tech is run-oriented. The Hokies rank 88th in yards per play despite playing less than stellar defenses.
09-11-21	Missouri v. Kentucky OVER 53.5		28-35	Win	100	122 h 50 m	Show
Good defense, mediocre run-oriented offense. That's been Kentucky's style and stereotype for years. It's different this year, though, and the oddsmaker hasn't fully caught on yet. The Wildcats' defense is down this season. Missouri has the offensive weapons to take advantage. Missouri doesn't have a good defense, though. The Wildcats are playing at a faster tempo under new offensive coordinator, Liam Coen, a disciple of Sean McVay as an assistant coach with the Los Angeles Rams before coming to Kentucky. Coen has the reputation as an offensive whiz with an emphasis on passing. Will Levis is a much better passer than the Wildcats have previously had in recent seasons.
09-11-21	South Alabama v. Bowling Green UNDER 51.5		22-19	Win	100	118 h 8 m	Show
South Alabama held Southern Mississippi to seven points and 259 yards of offense in a 31-7 opening victory last week. Yes, Southern Mississippi is bad although Frank Gore Jr. is one of the better running backs in Conference USA. This defensive effort wasn't a fluke. The Jaguars' defense is improved under defensive-minded Kane Wommack, who did an excellent job as defensive coordinator at Indiana before coming to South Alabama. Bowling Green is better defensively than on offense. The Falcons have scored 36 points in their last four games, including six against Tennessee last week. That's an average of nine points per game. Both teams play at a slow pace, too.
09-11-21	Buffalo v. Nebraska OVER 54.5		3-28	Loss	-110	24 h 42 m	Show
I get that the opponents of these two teams were Wagner and Fordham last week. Still, both Buffalo and Nebraska's offenses looked great. I'm betting these offenses stay that way this week. I trust the offenses more than the defenses. The Bulls buried Wagner, 69-7, while Nebraska rolled past Fordham 52-7. Cornhuskers QB Adrian Martinez played one of his best games, while the Bulls showed they can still run the ball piling up 312 yards on the ground after superstar runner Jaret Patterson moved on to the pros.
09-06-21	Louisville v. Ole Miss UNDER 76	Top	24-43	Win	100	16 h 52 m	Show
The oddsmaker is envisioning a monster shootout with this large of a total. I understand the thinking. Both teams have excellent QB's and defenses that are not well respected. I just don't agree with that high-of-a-score thinking. I like Mississippi QB Matt Corral a lot. He's a likely first-round draft pick. Louisville, however, isn't that bad on defense. The Cardinals were fourth in the ACC in yards allowed and return seven starters from that unit. Corral doesn't have monster talent Elijah Moore anymore. He's with the Jets now. Mississippi's defense is much maligned. But when last spotted the Rebels were holding Indiana to 20 points in a 26-20 Outback Bowl victory. The Rebels are big in the trenches, have athletic linebackers and an experienced secondary. Louisville QB Malik Cunningham is more dangerous as a runner. The Cardinals run more than they pass so that's going to eat clock. Cunningham lost his two best wide receivers from a year ago. The Rebels will be without Lane Kiffin, an aggressive, offensive-minded coach. He tested positive for COVID-19 and has to miss the game. I regard that as a plus for the Under.
09-04-21	Louisiana Tech v. Mississippi State OVER 52.5		34-35	Win	100	15 h 16 m	Show
Louisiana Tech lacks the necessary pass rush to bother Mike Leach's Air Raid offense. Mississippi State should put up plenty of points having a better grasp of Leach's aggressive style of attack. Bulldogs QB Will Rogers had a 69 percent completion rate last season, which was the second-highest in FBS history for a freshman. He'll be even better this season as will Mississippi State backed by a veteran wide receiving corps. Louisiana Tech will contribute its fair share to getting this total Over. Mississippi State gave up nearly 35 points per game last year. Louisiana Tech averaged nearly four TD's a game and fortified its offense with a number of transfers. Veteran Austin Kendall will be under center for Louisiana Tech. He learned his craft at Oklahoma where he backed up Baker Mayfield and then went to West Virginia where he passed for 2,153 yards and 14 TD's in 11 games.
09-04-21	Marshall v. Navy UNDER 47.5		49-7	Loss	-118	15 h 49 m	Show
Slow tempo, lots of running and strong defenses. That's a nice recipe for an Under, which should happen here. Only 11 teams had a slower pace than Navy last season. The Midshipmen, with their triple-option attack, are going to have problems producing many points against Marshall. The Thundering Herd led the nation in scoring defense last season. They gave up less than 100 yards rushing per game. Navy averaged 4.3 points during its final three games last year. Marshall plays slow, too, and lacks explosive weapons. Navy's defense came on strong last season surrendering only 14.3 points during its final three games.
08-28-21	Hawaii v. UCLA UNDER 68.5	Top	10-44	Win	100	100 h 49 m	Show
Both teams improved defensively last season and should be even better this year. Hawaii has all of its key defensive starters back and added three potential starting transfers, including two in the secondary. The Rainbow Warriors surrendered an average of 27.6 points a game, their lowest figure in seven years. UCLA's offense could get off to a slow start since QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson missed the first few fall practices. UCLA's defense gave up 30.7 points a game last season, down from the 34 points they allowed per game during the previous two seasons. The Bruins return 10 defensive starters. Hawaii QB Chevan Cordeiro is decent, but he's nothing great especially compared to previous star Rainbow Warrior QB's.
12-26-20	Liberty v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 59.5	Top	37-34	Loss	-107	16 h 0 m	Show
What we have in this Cure Bowl matchup of Liberty versus Coastal Carolina is two strong defensive teams going against slow-tempo, run-oriented offenses. So I find this total excessively high. Liberty gives up the seventh-fewest yards and 10th-fewest passing yards in the nation. The Flames have held their foes to an average of 19.2 points per game. Coastal Carolina has been even stingier limiting their opponents to just 18.7 points a game. The Chanticleers could take advantage of a rusty Liberty offense as the Flames last played back on Nov. 27 and that game was against the worst Division I team in college football, Massachusetts. Both teams ranked among the bottom 30 in college football in terms of pace.
12-21-20	North Texas v. Appalachian State UNDER 68.5		28-56	Loss	-110	3 h 58 m	Show
This total keeps getting pushed up higher. It's high enough now where I'm going to get involved in the Under. Yes, Appalachian State is going to produce a lot of points with an offense that averages 31.8 points and is facing a weak North Texas defense. But it takes scoring from both teams to go above a total this big. I don't see North Texas contributing its share of points. The Mountaineers have held opponents to 19.3 points a game. They rank 12th in fewest yards allowed at 312 a game. North Texas won't have its starting quarterback, Austin Aune, nor its most dynamic player, wide receiver Jaelon Darden, who set a school record with 19 TD catches this season.
12-19-20	Arizona State v. Oregon State UNDER 55		46-33	Loss	-110	21 h 6 m	Show
There are many reasons to like this total Under. A main one being weather. The forecast is a 100 percent chance of rain with wind in the 10-20 mph range. Arizona State's offensive statistics are skewed from last week's 70-point performance against mistake-prone Arizona. The Sun Devils' offense isn't nearly that good and they are not up-tempo. The Sun Devils hold opponents to 20 points a game, which is the best in the Pac-12. Oregon State is down two of their starting wide receivers, Trevon Bradford and Champ Flemings. The Beavers' star running back, Jermar Jefferson, is questionable with an ankle injury sustained last week. Oregon State figures to run the ball a lot with or without Jefferson.
12-12-20	San Diego State v. BYU UNDER 49.5		14-28	Win	100	66 h 14 m	Show
San Diego State completely shut down Zach Wilson and BYU's offense last season in a 13-3 home victory. While I highly doubt the Aztecs hold the Cougars to three points this time, I do expect a low-scoring game with BYU struggling to solve San Diego State's defense again. The Cougars were held 17 points in losing to Coastal Carolina this past Saturday. San Diego State has better defensive numbers than Coastal Carolina ranking eighth in scoring defense giving up 16.3 points and third in total defense holding foes to 269.1 yards. The Under is 9-1-1 in the Aztecs' last 11 road games. Wilson draws a lot of media attention, but BYU has a strong defense allowing just 14.7 points per game. Only three teams give up fewer points per game. The Cougars are seventh in total defense allowing 299.9 yards per contest. The Aztecs are very weak offensively especially their passing attack, which ranks 119th. San Diego State's game plan is to keep the clocking moving by running the ball and playing for field position trying to make sure BYU has long stretches to go.
12-12-20	Akron v. Buffalo UNDER 61.5		7-56	Loss	-115	110 h 59 m	Show
At first glance this total may seem a little low considering Buffalo beat Kent State, 70-41, in its last game. But Akron is an entirely different opponent. The Zips may not even score. That was the case in last year's game. Buffalo blanked them, 21-0. That total was just 48. Buffalo remains a power in the Mid-American Conference. Akron remains terrible. But this year's total is much higher. I don't think that's justified. Yes, Buffalo can name its score here. The Bulls are going to destroy Akron. But to what extent? The Zips are in the argument for worst offense in the country. They rank 120th in total yards and 114th in scoring averaging 19.2 points. Buffalo is holding foes to an average of 24.5 points - and that's after surrendering 41 to Kent State. The Bulls held Bowling Green to 17 points and Miami of Ohio to 10 in their previous two games. Akron has been a huge Under team. The Under has cashed in 69 percent of its last 51 games. The last four in this series have gone Under. The weather forecast is calling for a 50 percent chance of rain with 12-15 mph winds. More ammunition to play Under.
12-10-20	Pittsburgh v. Georgia Tech OVER 54.5		34-20	Loss	-110	7 h 17 m	Show
Georgia Tech is giving up an average of 41.3 points during its last eight games. The Yellow Jackets are short-handed in the secondary and their defense is running on fumes as this marks their third game in 13 days. Yellow Jackets QB Jeff Sims, though, should be able to pass on Pittsburgh. Sims is a dual threat. He's rushed for 478 yards and thrown for 1,643. Pittsburgh is geared to stop the run. The Panthers rank 82nd in pass defense. The Over has cashed in each of the Panthers' last seven games. Look for that trend to continue here.
12-05-20	Indiana v. Wisconsin OVER 44.5		14-6	Loss	-105	38 h 48 m	Show
No, this low total isn't weather-related. The oddsmaker is just giving too much respect to Wisconsin's defense and not enough to Indiana's offense. Yes, the Hoosiers lost their star QB, Michael Penix Jr., for the season. But former Utah QB Jack Tuttle is one of the better backup QB's. He's a downfield passer with plenty of high-caliber receiving weapons and an excellent running back, Stevie Scott. The Hoosiers just rushed for 234 yards against Maryland in their last game. Wisconsin's offense is much better than it looked against Northwestern two weeks ago. The Badgers were idle last week after their game was cancelled. The extra time is good for their banged-up receiving corps and gives them ample time and motivation to scheme against Indiana, whose defense heavily relies on turnovers. Making the Badgers more dangerous than in previous years is the emergence of highly-touted freshman QB Graham Mertz. He could be Wisconsin's best QB since Russell Wilson. Weather won't be a problem as the forecast is for a clear day with no wind and temperatures in the 30s.
12-05-20	Bowling Green v. Akron UNDER 57.5	Top	3-31	Win	100	77 h 35 m	Show
Both teams are 0-4 and have terrible offenses. Bowling Green ranks 126th in scoring averaging 13.5 points. The Falcons are 111th in yards gained. Akron isn't much better being 123th in scoring at 16.3. The Zips rank 120th in yards gained. I don't like either of these team's QB's. Bowling Green QB Matt McDonald has a 1-to-6 TD-to-interception ratio. Zips QB Zack Gibson has a 3-to-5 TD-to-interception ratio. So I see this total as being too high. Akron has a race chance to win. So the Zips are likely to feed the ball a lot to Teon Dollard, their one decent skill position player. A lot of running plays is going to eat clock. The Under has cashed seven of the last eight times they've met.
12-05-20	Oklahoma State v. TCU UNDER 52		22-29	Win	100	9 h 24 m	Show
Short on personnel because of COVID 19, TCU coach Gary Patterson has made no secret about his game plan - run. The Horned Frogs want to shorten this game by playing ball control keeping Oklahoma State, with its bevy of star skill position players, off the field as much as possible. The Horned Frogs, though, haven't proven they can effectively run the ball against better defenses. They've padded their status versus lower echelon Big 12 Conference foes. The Cowboys have been dealing with injuries. Their star running back, Chuba Hubbard, is questionable with an ankle injury. TCU has held three of its past four opponents to 80 rushing yards. Only once in the past 11 instances have the Cowboys gone Over the total in December. TCU has gone Under in eight of its last 10 December games.
11-21-20	Liberty v. NC State OVER 65		14-15	Loss	-113	10 h 35 m	Show
Liberty has been a huge success story this season going 8-0. The Flames have scored at least 30 points in all but one game as Auburn transfer Malik Willis has been brilliant accounting for 24 TD's with his passing and running. I don't see North Carolina State slowing down Liberty's offense. The Wolfpack give up 33.9 points per game and rank 107th in pass defense. NC State QB Bailey Hockman was impressive in helping the Wolfpack defeat Florida State, 38-22, last week. Hockman has played well in his first two starts. He's surrounded by excellent skill position talent. So the Wolfpack certainly are going to put up their share of points. They average nearly 34 points a game.
11-21-20	Illinois v. Nebraska OVER 58.5		41-23	Win	100	10 h 54 m	Show
Lovie Smith is one of my least favorite college coaches. But he has skill position talent with Isaiah Williams and Chase Brown. Mike Epstein is a reliable running back, too. The Illini ran for 337 yards against Rutgers last week. Nebraska's defense ranks 97th in run defense. The Cornhuskers are better offensively than they've shown. They've had the misfortune of opening against Ohio State and Northwestern, who have two of the best defenses in the Big 10. There were 80 points scored in last year's game between the two teams and 89 points produced when the teams met two years ago. Weather shouldn't be a problem with the forecast calling for temperatures in the 40's, 20 percent chance of rain and nine mile per hour wind.
11-14-20	Oregon v. Washington State UNDER 58.5		43-29	Loss	-109	124 h 35 m	Show
Oregon served notice that it could have the most defensive talent in the Pac-12 holding Stanford to 14 points last week. Washington State isn't the up-tempo, throw at will team it was under Mike Leach. The Cougars run far more and play at a slower pace. This is a different type of Cougars team and I expect them to have trouble against Oregon's defense. The early weather forecast is for heavy winds, too.
11-07-20	New Mexico v. Hawaii OVER 61		33-39	Win	100	120 h 53 m	Show
New Mexico has played just once this season, losing 38-21 to San Jose State. The Lobos are hurting defensively having lost their top four tacklers from last season. Their offense, though, has potential. New coach Danny Gonzalez is running an up-tempo spread offense. The Lobos did play fast against San Jose State. Hawaii plays at a quick pace, too, under Todd Graham. This is the Rainbow Warriors' first home game. Their offense drops way down in class meeting New Mexico after having a tough time at Wyoming last week. Wyoming ranks 25th in the country in scoring defense.
11-07-20	South Alabama v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 54.5		6-23	Win	100	117 h 49 m	Show
Coastal Carolina's defense is for real. The Chanticleers have given up 13.6 points during their last three games. Coastal Carolina has 20 sacks on the season and eight interceptions. The Chanticleers' defensive front should dominate the line of scrimmage against South Alabama. The Jaguars are giving up 19.3 points during their last three games, all of which have gone Under. Neither team plays fast. Both are geared toward ground attacks, which keeps the clock moving.
11-07-20	Tulane v. East Carolina OVER 61.5	Top	38-21	Loss	-109	21 h 17 m	Show
These two teams are a combined 9-2-1 (82 percent) to the Over this season. It's not a surprise as both have strong offenses and weak defenses. East Carolina has Holton Ahlers, one of the better QB's in the country, back after he missed a game because of COVID-19 protocols. Ahlers should have a big game versus the Green Wave, who rank 100th in pass defense. Ahlers is aided by freshman running back Jahjai Harris, who has put together three straight 100-yard rushing games. Tulane had allowed an average of 45.6 points and 582 yards during its last three games, until facing Temple last week. The Owls were missing their starting QB Anthony Russo. The Green Wave is averaging 36.3 points and is the 13th-best rushing team in the nation. Freshman QB Michael Pratt has shown continued improvement. He's accounted for 14 TD's during the last four games. East Carolina surrenders an average of 37 points per game.
10-31-20	Arkansas v. Texas A&M UNDER 54.5		31-42	Loss	-105	37 h 12 m	Show
Sam Pittman is doing an outstanding job with Arkansas' defense. The Razorbacks are giving up 25.5 points a game and lead the SEC with 10 interceptions. Texas A&M gives up the third-fewest yards in the SEC. Neither team is explosive or plays fast. I'm not fond of either team's QB. Both are mediocre. The Under has cashed in nine of the Razorbacks' last 12 road games.
10-31-20	Notre Dame v. Georgia Tech OVER 58.5		31-13	Loss	-105	18 h 4 m	Show
Fresh off having a huge game in putting up 45 points against Pittsburgh last Saturday, Notre Dame QB Ian Book gets to face a Georgia Tech defense yielding 41.2 points and nearly 480 yards per game. The Yellow Jackets lack a good pass rush. Look for Book to produce another big performance against a Georgia Tech team allowing 60.5 points in its last two games. It has been years, but Georgia Tech finally has a passing game of its own. Freshman QB Jeff Sims has thrown for 1,196 yards and 8 TD's while also rushing for 275 yards and scoring 4 TD's on the ground. The Over has cashed in the Yellow Jackets' last five home contests.
10-31-20	TCU v. Baylor UNDER 48	Top	33-23	Loss	-109	34 h 35 m	Show
Both TCU and Baylor have struggling offenses while also playing at a slow pace. TCU QB Max Duggan has been sacked nine times, while Baylor QB Charlie Brewer has shown major regression. These teams are about defense. Bears coach Dave Aranda is a top-notch defensive guru. He inherited lots of defensive talent from Matt Rhule. The Horned Frogs have put up 14 points each of the last two weeks against Kansas State and Oklahoma. The Bears are averaging 15 points in regulation during their last two games facing West Virginia and Texas.
10-31-20	Northwestern v. Iowa OVER 45.5		21-20	Loss	-110	79 h 32 m	Show
Northwestern's offense came out extremely sharp in its opener this past Saturday producing 43 points and 517 yards against Maryland. Yes, Iowa's defense presents far more of a challenge. But the Wildcats' offense is much improved from a year ago with Indiana transfer Patrick Ramsey at QB. Ramsey has a pair of good running backs in Drake Anderson and Isaiah Bowser. Ramsey completed passes to seven different receivers. The Wildcats also have one of the better kickers in the Big Ten with Charlie Kuhbander. Iowa gave up 24 points to Purdue in a 24-20 opening-week loss to the Boilermakers last Saturday. Purdue played without its superstar wide receiver, Rondale Moore. Yet the Hawkeyes still struggled on pass defense. The Hawkeyes have a good running back, too, in Tyler Goodson. Iowa's new QB, Spencer Petras, flashed at times. He connected with eight different receivers. Both teams can move the ball on the ground. Ramsey and Petras are good enough passers to be able to take advantage of this by picking their spots and doing well off play-action.
10-29-20	South Alabama v. Georgia Southern UNDER 51.5		17-24	Win	100	39 h 3 m	Show
If you think about Sun Belt Conference football - which is totally not a given - you envision up-tempo, high-scoring games. That's not going to be the case in this Thursday matchup between South Alabama and Georgia Southern. The run-option Eagles of Georgia Southern are one of the slowest-paced teams in the country. Eagles QB Shai Werts is a much better runner than thrower. Georgia Southern averages just 114 passing yards a game. South Alabama doesn't play fast either. Both team's defenses are respectable. The Jaguars give up 24.8 points per contest, while Georgia Southern allows 22.8. The Jaguars held their last two opponents, Texas State and UL-Monroe, to a combined average of 17 points. If you discount a 41-0 win against UMass, the worst team in the FBS, Georgia Southern is averaging 23.7 points in its four other games. The Eagles have a solid secondary that should be able to contain South Alabama's improved passing attack.
10-24-20	Wyoming v. Nevada OVER 49.5		34-37	Win	100	111 h 24 m	Show
The offenses are in place to produce a strong scoring game that exceeds this total. Both teams have excellent running backs, promising quarterbacks and returning offensive linemen. Nevada has all five of its starting offensive linemen back along with its two leading wide receivers and three-year starting running back, Toa Taua. Wolf Pack sophomore QB Carson Strong came on last year to throw for 1,359 yards and eight TD's during the second half of the season. He concluded 2019 by setting a school bowl record by throwing for 402 yards and completing 31 passes against Ohio in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Taua and Devonte Lee combined for 13 rushing TD's last season. Wyoming returns nearly all of its first and second-string offensive linemen. The Cowboys have a very good running back in All-Mountain West Conference Xazavian Valladay. He ran for 1,265 yard last season. Sophomore QB Sean Chambers was Wyoming's No. 2 rusher last year. He accounted for 10 TD's. Chambers accomplished this even though he was knocked out for the year with a knee injury in Game 8. He's healthy now and should be able to take advantage of the Wolf Pack breaking in a new defensive scheme with a new defensive coordinator, Brian Ward. The Wolf Pack gave up the third-most points in the conference last season. It's going to take time for the Wolf Pack to learn this new defense, which features multiple looks. Complicating things even more for Nevada's defensive players is the lack of off-season and practice time.
10-24-20	Baylor v. Texas UNDER 62	Top	16-27	Win	100	108 h 7 m	Show
The total is set too high here. Baylor has a strong defense and is coached by defensive guru Dave Aranda. The Bears have played only two games, one of which went into overtime. Texas' statistics are skewed, too, because of a four-overtime game versus Oklahoma that finished with the Sooners winning, 53-45. Both teams should have plenty of energy. The Bears have been idle for two weeks. Texas didn't play last week. The Longhorns used their bye to emphasize running the ball better and stopping the run. Quarterback Sam Ehlinger is the Longhorns' leading rusher.
10-17-20	Texas A&M v. Mississippi State OVER 54		28-14	Loss	-115	27 h 58 m	Show
Don't be fooled by Mississippi State scoring just two points against Kentucky last week. The Bulldogs were done in by six interceptions. Say what you will about Mike Leach, but he is resourceful and innovative with his passing schemes. Texas A&M gave up 435 passing yards to Alabama and 312 passing yards to Florida during its last two games.The Aggies surrendered an average of 45 points during those two matchups. I see Mississippi State scoring big like it did against LSU when it produced 44 points. The Aggies rank 20th in the nation in total yards. They are coming off a 41-point performance against Florida. Mississippi State's defense is stepping up in class after having faced Kentucky and Arkansas in its last two games.
10-17-20	Duke v. NC State OVER 58.5		20-31	Loss	-110	19 h 50 m	Show
Thanks to improved offensive line play, Duke's offense is coming on. The Blue Devils scored 31 points versus Virginia Tech two weeks ago and lit up Syracuse for 38 points, 36 first downs and 645 yards this past Saturday. Deon Jackson and Mataeo Durant each ran for more than 160 yards in that game for Duke. North Carolina State has gone Over in each of its four games. That's not a surprise considering the Wolfpack average 34.3 points a game while giving up exactly 34.3 points per game. The Blue Devils allow 30.6 points a game. These teams are explosive and up-tempo. I expect each team to hit 30 points again.
10-17-20	Louisville v. Notre Dame UNDER 64		7-12	Win	100	50 h 41 m	Show
Only 7 teams allow fewer points than Notre Dame. But the biggest handicap to the Under is bad weather in the forecast. Heavy winds are being forecast for this matchup in South Bend. There could be gusts in the 30-35 mph range. Neither team plays at a fast pace either. So there should be lots of running due to the weather conditions.
10-16-20	SMU v. Tulane UNDER 65	Top	37-34	Loss	-114	38 h 34 m	Show
Both teams have suffered key skill position injuries. SMU has lost its best wide receiver, Reggie Roberson, and top running back, TJ McDaniel, for the season. Tulane is down its best running back, Tyjae Spears, for the year. The Green Wave also suffered two starting offensive line injuries to left tackle Joey Claybrook and right guard Josh Remetich last week. Both are questionable this week. Claybrook is a key because true freshman quarterback Michael Pratt has made just one start. He didn't produce good numbers in his first start against Houston last week. SMU has held its four opponents to an average of 23.3 points. SMU kept Memphis, which ranks eighth in the nation in yards, to 27 points in its last game. A key here is Tulane's defense is overdue to play better. The Green Wave start seven seniors and four juniors on defense. They had their entire defensive front four return, including Patrick Johnson and Cameron Sample. Defense was supposed to be a strength. Instead the Green Wave have surrendered 31 points and 395.2 yards a game. Improvement should come.
10-08-20	Tulane v. Houston OVER 59	Top	31-49	Win	100	40 h 10 m	Show
Tulane defeated Houston, 38-31, in one of the wildest games of the season last year. Certainly those like myself, who had Houston plus 4, will never forget it. Much has changed since then. But one thing should remain the same: This should be another high-scoring game. Tulane has a very sharp offensive coordinator, Will Hall. The Green Wave posted their third-highest total in points (33.1) and yards (449.3) in Hall's first year last season. Tulane lost a lot of offensive talent from last season. It has taken three games, but Tulane has found its rhythm with the quarterback switch to freshman Michael Pratt. The Green Wave scored 59 points when Pratt took over at QB against Southern Mississippi in a 66-24 victory last week. Houston ranked near the bottom in the nation in total defense and pass defense, while surrendering 34 points a game last year. I mention last year's numbers, because the Cougars have yet to play this season due to three straight cancellations caused by COVID-19. The Cougars also feature an offensive mastermind in head coach Dana Holgorsen. QB Clayton Tune received plenty of experience last season after D'Eriq King sat out the last eight games before transferring to Miami. Tune has proven playmakers around him headed by Marquez Stevenson, one of the better senior wide receivers in college. This is a step up for Tulane's defense, which has gone against South Alabama, Navy and Southern Mississippi. Certainly, the Cougars will be fresh with lots of energy.
10-03-20	UTSA v. UAB OVER 54.5		13-21	Loss	-104	27 h 47 m	Show
Both teams have well above average offenses and vulnerable defenses. UTSA averages 37.3 points and has a balanced attack. UAB puts up 33.7 points a game. The Blazers are balanced, too. San Antonio's Sincere McCormick and Birmingham's Spencer Brown are two of the best running backs in Conference USA. The Blazers rank 56th in run defense, while the Roadrunners rank 64th in pass defense. UTSA ranks 18th in rushing. The Blazers rate among the top 37 teams in the major offensive categories including total yards, scoring, passing and rushing.
10-02-20	Louisiana Tech v. BYU OVER 59	Top	14-45	Push	0	17 h 8 m	Show
This total is high, but not high enough given how balanced and deadly these two offenses are. Louisiana Tech QB Luke Anthony has thrown eight TD passes in two games spreading the ball around to a bevy of targets. The Bulldogs are the sixth-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 48.5 points. BYU has scored 103 points in two games, ranking in the top 10 in both passing and rushing. The Cougars rank second in the nation averaging 51.5 points. The Bulldogs have the offense to hang in for a while, but they could wilt down the stretch playing in mountain altitude leading to a lot of late scoring.
12-31-19	Kansas State v. Navy OVER 52.5	Top	17-20	Loss	-110	15 h 49 m	Show
Navy has scored a minimum of 31 points in eight of its last nine games. Thanks to QB Malcom Perry, the Midshipmen led the nation in rushing. I don't see Kansas State, with a below average run defense, being able to slow down Navy's option attack. It's Navy's relentless ground attack that wears down opponents not the other way around. But Kansas State has the skill position athletes and Big 12 pedigree to take advantage of Navy's defense. Wildcats QB Skyler Thompson is a dual threat accounting for 22 TD's this season while passing for more than 4,000 yards and rushing for more than 1,000 during his career. Navy has to look out for Joshua Youngblood, too. He was the Big 12 Special Teams Player of the Year. Youngblood has brought back three kicks for TD's in the last four games.
12-28-19	Memphis v. Penn State UNDER 60.5	Top	39-53	Loss	-110	71 h 4 m	Show
Memphis has a high-powered offense with excellent skill position players. The Tigers, however, aren't great in pass protection and haven't faced a defense the caliber of Penn State. The Nittany Lions rank seventh in scoring defense giving up 14.1 points a game and 11th in yards per play at 4.8. Penn State played good competition, too, taking on eight bowl teams. They held those opponents to 18.6 points a game. Ohio State could manage just 28 points against Penn State. The Buckeyes are the No. 1 scoring team in the nation averaging 48.7 points. Penn State isn't as strong offensively. The Nittany Lions have flashed at times, but their offense is far from dominant. Memphis held six foes to fewer than 350 yards.
12-06-19	Oregon v. Utah UNDER 50	Top	37-15	Loss	-110	102 h 50 m	Show
Oregon and Utah each have star skill position players. The Ducks with QB Justin Herbert. The Utes with running back Zack Moss. But the key to the success of these two teams is defense. Oregon surrenders fewer than 16 points a game. Utah is even more stingy yielding 11.2 points, third-best in the nation. It's not just two outstanding defenses that make the Under a good play here. Utah is heavily run-oriented, playing slower than any team in the nation as far as milking clock. The other factor is weather. This game is being played at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara. This is a grass field not known for providing good footing. The forecast is for rain and wind.
11-30-19	Arizona v. Arizona State OVER 59.5	Top	14-24	Loss	-108	32 h 17 m	Show
Arizona State beat Arizona, 41-40, last year. Expect a similar high-scoring game this season between the two teams. Arizona has a much better offense than it showed in last week's 35-7 loss to seventh-ranked Utah. The Wildcats have scored at least 31 points in five of their games. J.J. Taylor is one of the better RB's in the Pac-12. Arizona State freshman QB Jayden Daniels has gotten better as the season has progressed. Daniels threw for a season-high 408 yards and three TD's in the Sun Devils' 31-28 upset of Oregon last Saturday. The Sun Devils had 535 yards of total offense against an Oregon defense that is far better than Arizona's. The Wildcats have the worst scoring defense in the conference giving up 36.8 points a game. They also are last in the league in total defense and run defense.
11-30-19	Navy v. Houston OVER 58		56-41	Win	100	31 h 11 m	Show
Navy is the No. 1 rushing team in the nation thanks to QB Malcom Perry, who has rushed for 1,354 yards and scored 18 rushing TD's. Houston has a weak defense giving up 32 points a game and ranking 115th in total defense. Navy's relentless ground attack should be even better at this venue on a turf field. Houston does possess skill position weapons. So the Cougars should contribute their fair share of points toward an Over.
11-30-19	Southern Miss v. Florida Atlantic OVER 54	Top	17-34	Loss	-109	113 h 29 m	Show
These are two passing teams who should have a lot of success attacking weak secondaries. Southern Mississippi ranks 18th in the nation in passing averaging nearly 300 yards per game. Golden Eagles QB Jack Abraham is highly accurate completing nearly 68 percent of his throws. Florida Atlantic is 93rd in pass defense. Florida Atlantic has a high-powered attack that ranks 29th in scoring and 35th in yards. The Owls are very consistent. They average 34 points in their last 10 games and have produced at least 31 points in eight of their last nine games. The Owls have one of the best catching tight ends in the country in Harrison Bryant.
11-30-19	Indiana v. Purdue UNDER 55		44-41	Loss	-109	97 h 17 m	Show
Indiana has an underrated defense. The Hooisers can't stop high-powered offenses, but they are tough versus weak attacks holding Eastern Illinois, Connecticut, Rutgers and Northwestern to a combined six points! Purdue's offense has been ruined because of multiple QB injuries and an injury to Rondale Moore, who I ranked as the top wide receiver in the country. The Boilermakers are terrible on the ground ranking 128th, averaging fewer than 75 rushing yards per game. The Boilermakers have been respectable on defense versus middle-to-lower Big Ten foes. Discounting last week's game against Wisconsin, Purdue had given up an average of 22.6 points in its last five Big Ten games. There are two other key factors that favor an Under. The weather forecast is calling for a 90 percent chance of rain with wind in the 13-15 mph range. That's especially bothersome to Indiana, which is a passing team. Note the teams are playing on a grass field, too, which is a plus for the Under. Also this is a rivalry matchup so defensive intensity should be up.
11-29-19	Iowa v. Nebraska UNDER 45		27-24	Loss	-108	20 h 10 m	Show
The marketplace has knocked this total down a little, but not enough. There is still value going Under given the teams and conditions. Iowa surrenders the fifth-fewest points in the nation at 12.2 per game. The Hawkeyes have held eight of their 11 opponents to season-low point totals. The Hawkeyes, though, lack a dynamic offense. They rank 102nd in scoring at 23.5 points. So it's not a shock the Under is 8-1-1 in Iowa's past 10 games. Nebraska doesn't make many big plays either. The Cornhuskers are 78th in scoring at 28.4 points. This is a rivalry matchup. The teams play for the Heros Trophy so intensity should be up. Another key factor for the Under is weather. The forecast is for rain and 15 mph wind.
11-26-19	Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois UNDER 52	Top	14-17	Win	100	26 h 53 m	Show
Weather and a bad Northern Illinois offense quarterbacked by an ineffective backup are the major reasons for playing Under in this Mid-American Conference matchup. Rain and 14-20 mph winds are in the forecast. Northern Illinois starting QB Ross Bowers is out due to a concussion. Marcus Childers is his replacement. He's not very good. Childers threw for fewer than 100 yards last week and was picked off three times. The Huskies will be running the ball a lot here. They are averaging only 19.3 points in their last three games. Western Michigan has a lot of pressure. A victory puts the Broncos into the MAC title game as the West Division winner. The Broncos have a good runner, LeVante Bellamy. So look for the Broncos to keep things conservative on the road running Bellamy a lot. There is no need for them to open up their attack and take unnecessary chances, which is good for the Under.
11-23-19	North Texas v. Rice OVER 55		14-20	Loss	-120	49 h 56 m	Show
Now that Mason Fine has been cleared to play, I'm going to get involved on the Over in this matchup. Fine is one of the top QB's in the country. The senior has passed for 2,659 yards, completed 62.6 percent of his throws and has a 27-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 10 games. Jaelon Darden and Michael Lawrence are talented wide receivers. Rice ranks 99th in pass defense. Rice produced 31 points in its last game playing Middle Tennessee State. The Owls have found their right QB in Tom Stewart, who threw for 222 yards and three TD's in that victory. North Texas has a weak defense. The Mean Green rank 101st in run defense. They've yielded more than 40 points four times and are giving up an average of 34.4 points a game, which ranks 115th.
11-21-19	NC State v. Georgia Tech UNDER 47	Top	26-28	Loss	-110	19 h 16 m	Show
There are some decent teams in the ACC. These are not two of them. North Carolina State and Georgia Tech are a combined 6-14. The season can't end quick enough for the Wolfpack and Yellow Jackets. North Carolina State ranks 104th in scoring averaging fewer than 23 points a game. The Wolfpack have produced fewer than 17 points in four of their last six games. They only have one rushing touchdown in their last six games. Georgia Tech's strength is its pass defense. The Yellow Jackets rank 29th permitting fewer than 200 passing yards a game. Georgia Tech scores even less than NC State averaging 16.5 points per game. The Yellow Jackets rank among the bottom-11 teams in the nation in scoring and yards gained. They are last in red zone offense. North Carolina State has a good defensive line. The Wolfpack rate 32nd in stopping the run. Georgia Tech lacks any big-play element and has failed to rush for more 100 yards in two of its last three games.
11-20-19	Akron v. Miami-OH UNDER 45.5	Top	17-20	Win	100	45 h 49 m	Show
ESPN2 must not care about its scheduling. How else to explain the network showing Akron football. What is ESPN2 going to program next, reruns of "My Mother the Car," (yes there really was a My Mother The Car show and it may have been the worst TV sitcom ever). Akron has the worst offense in college football averaging 10.6 points a game. The Zips have scored 23 points in their last five games. They rank second-to-last in yards per game, 94th in passing and last in rushing. Other than that, they have a fairly strong attack. The Zips usually save their most boring for the road going Under in 16 of their last 23 away matchups. Miami of Ohio is a respectable 58th in total defense. The Redhawks are bad offensively, too, ranking 93rd in scoring at 24.8 points and 121st in yards gained.
11-16-19	Air Force v. Colorado State OVER 63.5		38-21	Loss	-115	28 h 42 m	Show
If you can't stop the run you can not stop Air Force. The Falcons are the No. 2 rushing team in the country averaging 324.1 yards a game. Colorado State ranks 111th in run defense allowing an average of 204.7 yards. The Falcons have averaged nearly 35 points a game during the last five meetings between the two teams. The Over has cashed each of the last seven times the teams have met in Colorado Springs. The Over is 18-8 in Air Force's last 26 road contests. Colorado State's offense has picked up since Nebraska transfer Patrick O'Brien replaced injured Colin Hill at quarterback. The Rams have scored 37, 41 and 35 points during their last three games. O'Brien has averaged 302.5 passing yards per game since taking over as the starter. Warren Jackson has emerged as the premier wide receiver in the Mountain West Conference leading the league with 121.7 receiving yards per game.
11-16-19	Kentucky v. Vanderbilt UNDER 44		38-14	Loss	-116	100 h 32 m	Show
These are two bad offensive teams with feeble passing games. Kentucky averages just 20.3 points, which ranks 114th in the nation. Converted wide receiver Lynn Bowden Jr. is the Wildcats' QB. He can't throw. Vanderbilt averages 15.1 points a game, which is 126th in the country. The Commodores have gone through four QB's, none of whom have been effective. The scary thing about Vandy is its offense is regressing. The Commodores are averaging less than nine points during their last five games.
11-16-19	Florida v. Missouri UNDER 51		23-6	Win	100	21 h 37 m	Show
QB Kelly Bryant isn't healthy and Missouri's offense is shot. Missouri is averaging seven points during its last three games. Florida has a strong defense whose season-long statistics have been skewed by a 42-28 loss to LSU. Missouri has a tough defense ranking ninth in fewest yards allowed per game. The Tigers surrender the 19th-fewest points per game and are ranked fourth in the nation in pass defense. The Gators have trouble hanging on to the ball committing 21 turnovers.
11-12-19	Eastern Michigan v. Akron UNDER 49.5	Top	42-14	Loss	-112	25 h 29 m	Show
If the Mid-American Conference wants to show off their brand of football on a Tuesday - of all nights - they sure picked a wrong team with Akron. The Zips have a cool nickname, but there is nothing exciting about their offense. They are last in the nation in scoring averaging 10.2 points a game. The Zips haven't scored a TD during their last four games putting up the grand total of nine points during this span. Akron ranks 94th in passing and last in rushing. Eastern Michigan is going to have to carry the scoring load. The Eagles aren't exactly an offensive powerhouse either ranking 82nd in points at 26.2 and 88th in total yards at 377.6. The Eagles are bad defensively, but Akron doesn't have the capability to take advantage. (Update: This total has gone done considerably since I released the play on Monday. I would still recommend the Under, but not for a Max Unit play.)
11-03-19	Fresno State v. Hawaii UNDER 69.5	Top	41-38	Loss	-102	49 h 6 m	Show
Fresno State coach Jeff Tedford is a quarterback guru. That's something well known about Tedford. What isn't so well known is that Tedford's teams have a strong Under tendency especially on the road where the low side has covered 12 of the last 16 times. Neither defense here has been very good. Hawaii has an explosive passing attack. That is why the total is so high. But in the last four years the most points scored in this matchup was 56 in 2015. There were 52 points scored last year and just 27 in 2016. This isn't a vintage Fresno State offense and Jorge Reyna isn't one of Tedford's great QB's. Reyna has a 3-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last four games. The Bulldogs have used five different offensive line combination and 11 players have made their first start for the offense. Lack of focus and execution has hurt Fresno State. Hawaii lost a bit of its receiving depth when Melquise Stovall was dismissed from the team last week. He was third on the team in TD catches. Fresno State has done a good job of limiting big plays tied with Boise State for fewest pass plays of 20 or more yards allowed. So I could see a fifth straight game of fewer than 60 points being scored.
11-02-19	Cincinnati v. East Carolina OVER 47		46-43	Win	100	44 h 27 m	Show
Cincinnati's defense gets a lot of credit. But the Bearcats' offense has been producing. Cincinnati is averaging 35.2 points in its last five games. Desmond Ridder and Co. should have a field day against an East Carolina defense that ranks 88th in yards allowed and 99th in run defense. This isn't a big total to go Over and the Pirates could contribute to it. They have a talented quarterback in Holton Ahlers.
11-02-19	Army v. Air Force UNDER 46		13-17	Win	100	17 h 51 m	Show
The last five in this series have all gone Under, including Army's 17-14 win last year. It's no surprise considering these are both triple option teams, play at a slow pace and this is a heated rivalry. Not many teams run an option. But Army and Air Force each do so its defenses are familiar with that kind of unique attack. Army is averaging just 19.3 points in its last three games. Note the teams will be playing on a grass field, which is a plus for the Under.
10-26-19	Utah State v. Air Force OVER 58.5	Top	7-31	Loss	-109	50 h 54 m	Show
Look for a shootout between these two teams. Air Force is averaging 41.2 points in its last four games. The Falcons rank No. 2 in the nation in rushing. They have averaged 35 points the past two seasons against Utah State. Utah State has one of the best QB's in the country, Jordan Love. The Aggies play at an extremely fast tempo, which is a huge plus for the Over. The Falcons rank 74th in pass defense. Utah State has averaged 40 points versus Air Force during the past two years.
10-19-19	Clemson v. Louisville OVER 61		45-10	Loss	-116	24 h 26 m	Show
Scott Satterfield is doing a miraculous job with Louisville. But he can't hide the Cardinals' pass defense woes. The Cardinals have allowed nearly 1,400 yards with 14 TD's during the last three weeks. Clemson buried Louisville, 77-16, last season. The score is going to be closer this time around, but the Cardinals won't be able to slow down the Tigers. The Tigers put up 45 points on Florid State last week. Travis Etienne is one of the best RB's in the country and the Tigers have maybe the best WR's in the nation. Trevor Lawrence is due to put up huge numbers. Louisville is putting up numbers close to Clemson on offense ranking 16th in yardage and 24th in scoring at 37.3 points a game. The Cardinals have scored 103 points during the past two weeks facing Boston College and Wake Forest. Their ground attack has churned out 200 yards in every game except one.
10-18-19	UNLV v. Fresno State UNDER 53.5	Top	27-56	Loss	-110	19 h 18 m	Show
UNLV upset Vanderbilt, 34-10, on the road last Saturday. The Rebels accomplished this by playing tough defense and running the ball a season-high 53 times. Now, on a short week with less practice time, the Rebels figure to stay on the ground. Running plays keep the clock moving. Tony Sanchez is fighting to keep his job as UNLV head coach. He knows the Rebels are 7-3 the last 10 times they have run the ball 50 or more times. Prior to putting up 34 points against the Commodores, the Rebels averaged 15.2 points in their past four games. Fresno State ranks 49th in fewest yards allowed per game. The Rebels don't have a very good passing attack. I'm not impressed either with Fresno State QB Jorge Reyna. Bulldogs coach Jeff Tedford has developed a lot of good QB's. Reyna, though, isn't one of them. Fresno State's statistics are padded from having played games against Sacramento State and New Mexico State.
10-17-19	UCLA v. Stanford UNDER 51	Top	34-16	Win	100	19 h 28 m	Show
Youthful quarterbacks and underrated defenses help put me on the Under. I'm not overly fond of UCLA's quarterbacks. Sophomore Austin Burton could be in line to make his second start for the Bruins in place of Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who has a leg injury. The Bruins remain without perhaps their most talented wider receiver with Theo Howard out. If you discount their games against Washington State and Oregon State, the Bruins are averaging 14.7 points in their four other games. Stanford's defense has come on. The Cardinal have given up an average of 20.6 points in their last three games taking on Oregon, Oregon State and Washington. The Ducks and Huskies each have top-30 offenses while Oregon State ranks 48th in scoring. The Cardinal are expected go with sophomore Jack West at quarterback with K.J. Costello sidelined. Stanford also is starting three true freshmen on its offensive line. An inexperienced QB behind three-fifths of an inexperienced O-line usually isn't a good combination. I'm sure the Cardinal will play conservative, which is the style of their coach, David Shaw, and run the ball frequently with Cameron Scarlett. That will keep the clock moving.
10-12-19	Toledo v. Bowling Green UNDER 66		7-20	Win	100	18 h 46 m	Show
Bowling Green excels in one thing - going Under the total. The Falcons have gone Under in nine of their last 10 games. I'm going to ride that trend here especially considering the weather conditions. The forecast is for wind in the 16 mph range with gusts possibly getting up to 28 mph. Bowling Green ranks 128th in scoring at 14.6 points a game. Toledo isn't likely to be passing much or playing up-temp once it builds a huge lead, which is what the Rockets are projected to do. The Under has cashed five of the last six times these teams have met at Bowling Green. The Under also has cashed in nine of the last 12 overall meetings between the two schools.
10-09-19	Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 71	Top	17-7	Win	100	10 h 59 m	Show
This is a huge Sun Belt Conference matchup. Both teams have outstanding offenses, hence the high total. But series history and the Ragin' Cajuns defense should not be overlooked. Lafayette is giving up an average of 17.2 points in its last four games. The Under has cashed five of the past six times in the series, including last season when just 49 points were scored. Both teams like to run, which should eat clock, too.
10-05-19	Troy v. Missouri OVER 67		10-42	Loss	-110	14 h 27 m	Show
Missouri is averaging more than 38 points a game. The Tigers should easily exceed that number after being idle last week and taking on a bad Sun Belt defense in Troy. Missouri QB Kellen Mond is in line for a huge game as the Trojans rank 125th in pass defense. The Over has cashed each of the past five times Missouri has played following a bye week. Troy, though, can put up its share of points. The Trojans rank 12th in the nation in yards and 16th in scoring at 40.8 points a game. Both teams play up-tempo and fast, which is excellent for the Over.
10-05-19	Air Force v. Navy UNDER 45		25-34	Loss	-110	100 h 12 m	Show
Lots of running here between these two rare option-attack, ground-oriented teams. That's great for the Under. Air Force is averaging fewer than nine passes per game this season. Navy has thrown just 20 passes in its past two games. Another big key to a low-scoring game is each team plays stout run defense. Air Force has the 18th-best rush defense, while Navy ranks 14th in stopping the run. The Under has cashed in six of Air Force's last seven nonconference games. This is a huge rivalry matchup so intensity should be way up. The Under has cashed six of the past seven times the schools have met, including last season.
10-05-19	Marshall v. Middle Tennessee State OVER 53		13-24	Loss	-115	14 h 60 m	Show
Marshall can run the ball ranking 37th in the country in rushing. MIddle Tennessee State is weak stopping the run ranking 127th. The Blue Raiders have a bad defense all the way around surrendering 40 or more points in three of their four games. The Blue Raiders have played a very difficult schedule, however, taking on Michigan, Iowa and Duke. They are better offensively than what they have shown due to the competition. QB Asher O'Hara has completed better than 70 percent of his throws with an 8-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Marshall ranks 111th in pass defense.
10-03-19	Temple v. East Carolina UNDER 48	Top	27-17	Win	100	17 h 9 m	Show
East Carolina has played five games under new head coach Mike Houston. Each game has gone Under the total. Will this one break the Under streak? I say no. I thought QB Holton Ahlers would be a lot better for the Pirates. But he hasn't. Ahlers has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns and his downfield throws have lacked accuracy. Temple has surrendered only one touchdown pass all season. The Owls give up just 17.2 points per game. They just defeated Georgia Tech, 24-2, last week. East Carolina has held its last two foes, William & Mary and Old Dominion, to an average of 14 points. Temple QB Anthony Russo has been picked off four times in the last two games. Russo has thrown at least one interception in all four of Temple's games. He completed just 9-of-22 passes against Georgia Tech. Note temperatures are expected to reach the upper 90s in Greenville with extremely high humidity. So that could take a toll on the players.
09-21-19	Georgia State v. Texas State OVER 63.5		34-37	Win	100	70 h 13 m	Show
Georgia State gives up 43 points a game, ranking 127th in scoring defense. The Panthers are off a 57-10 loss to Western Michigan where they yielded 694 yards. The Panthers, though, have a decent offense that is balanced. They average 32 points a game. QB Dan Ellington has an 8-to-1 TD-to-Interception ratio and is the Panthers' No. 2 rusher. Texas State is horrible defensively, too. The Bobcats just gave up 47 points and 639 yards to SMU. This is the spot where the Bobcats' offense really could show something under coach Jake Spavital, who has a reputation as a quarterback guru. The Bobcats rank 37th passing and Georgia State is a team they can run on. The Over has cashed in four of the last five meetings between the two teams.
09-21-19	New Mexico State v. New Mexico UNDER 71		52-55	Loss	-110	43 h 47 m	Show
New Mexico State can't hold up its end with a total this large. The Aggies have scored a combined 27 points in three games going against Washington State, Alabama and San Diego State. Yes, New Mexico is a drop-off, but this also is a rivalry game. The Aggies averaged just 371 yards and 25 points last season. So far this seaso they are averaging 302.7 yards and nine points a game. New Mexico State QB Josh Adkins is heavily turnover-prone. The Aggies will try to establish a ground attack for the first time. They should stick with it for a while because they are stepping down in class. New Mexico's offense has been down since the second half of last season. During their past eight games versus FBS opponents, the Lobos have failed to break 24 points in any game. They are averaging 15.2 points in these games. Their head coach, Bob Davie, is out another week recuperating from a health issue. None of the previous four matchups between these two teams during the last four years reached a combined 70 points. This one shouldn't either.
09-14-19	Texas State v. SMU OVER 58		17-47	Win	100	120 h 57 m	Show
Sonny Dykes is one of my least favorite college coaches. But you know with Dykes you're going to get a lot of passing, fast pace and not much defense even if some talent is there. SMU is averaging 43 points, while surrendering 28.5 points. Mustangs QB Shane Buechele is doing a good job operating Dykes' up-tempo attack and has two excellent receivers in James Proche and Reggie Roberson Jr. The gem about going above this total, though, is Texas State being well below the radar as far as having a good offense. The Bobcats have managed just 21 points in two games taking on Texas A&M on the road and Wyoming. They were the lowest-scoring team in the Sun Belt Conference last year. However, the Bobcats have brought in a pair of excellent offensive minds this season - head coach Jake Spavital and offensive coordinator Bob Stitt. They like an up-tempo style, too. The Bobcats had 444 yards against Wyoming, but were hurt by three turnovers. QB Gresch Jensen threw 54 passes against the Cowboys picking up nearly 400 yards through the air.
09-14-19	Southern Miss v. Troy OVER 49		47-42	Win	100	30 h 50 m	Show
Troy has a strong offense. Southern Mississippi's defense is down from a year ago. The Golden Eagles are more experienced offensively this season and QB Jack Abrahma is a high percentage quarterback. The Over has cashed in seven of Troy's last nine games. The Over also has won at a 70 percent rate during the Trojans' last 57 nonconference games.
09-14-19	Miami-OH v. Cincinnati UNDER 49.5		13-35	Win	100	24 h 57 m	Show
Pit a rivalry matchup of two running teams who each play at a slow pace and the result should be Under the total. That's what we have in a matchup of Miami of Ohio versus Cincinnati. Both teams run the ball more than 60 percent of the time. The RedHawks have a struggling offense that has injuries and a true freshman as their starting quarterback. They rank 117th in yards. Cincinnati plays at a slower tempo than even Miami of Ohio. The Bearcats are very strong defensively and stepping completely down in class having just met Ohio State. There should be extra intensity for this nonconference matchup. The two teams face each other every year for the Victory Bell. The schools only are about 45 miles apart in southwest Ohio. The average combined total during the past three matchups is 35.3 points. The Under has cashed in eight of the last 10 meetings.
09-13-19	North Carolina v. Wake Forest OVER 64	Top	18-24	Loss	-120	96 h 47 m	Show
North Carolina has yet to break the 28-point barrier in two games this season. The Tar Heels, though, have faced a pair of tough defenses in South Carolina and Miami. Wake Forest has struggled the past two years on defense. The Demon Deacons finished 116th in total defense last season. I'm not impressed with their defense this season either. So this is a big drop in class for North Carolina, which has gotten good play from QB Sam Howell and RB Javonte Williams. The Over has cashed in North Carolina's last five road games. Wake Forest is averaging nearly 40 points a game having met Utah State and Rice. Jamie Newman has come through at QB for the Demon Deacons completing 74.3 percent of his throws with a 6-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson likes to push pace and that's what his team is doing.
09-07-19	UL-Monroe v. Florida State OVER 63		44-45	Win	100	72 h 27 m	Show
Florida State put up 31 points in the first half against Boise State opening week before not doing anything in the second half against the Broncos. That didn't sit well with Kendal Briles, the Seminoles' sharp offensive coordinator. Look for the Seminoles to put together two strong halves against a much weaker opponent. The Seminoles are playing at a much quicker tempo under Briles, who is in his first season at Florida State. They are facing an opponent that has a weak secondary. Louisiana Monroe can contribute to this total going Over, too. The Warhawks have one of the better quarterbacks in the Sun Belt Conference, Caleb Evans, and good depth at running back. The Over has cashed the past six times Florida State has played a non-conference game.
09-07-19	San Diego State v. UCLA UNDER 45.5		23-14	Win	100	39 h 36 m	Show
Both team's star running backs are banged up and at less than 100 percent. San Diego State's Juwan Washington is dealing with an ankle injury, while UCLA's Joshua Kelley didn't play against Cincinnati due to a sore knee. Both are questionable to play Neither team has a good passing attack. San Diego State's Ryan Agnew is a game-manager type while UCLA's Dorian Thompson-Robinson could be the worst starting QB in the Pac-12. Both teams, though, are solid defensively. UCLA was strong against the run versus Cincinnati.
08-31-19	Akron v. Illinois UNDER 61		3-42	Win	100	27 h 34 m	Show
Maybe it's a leap of faith to project these defenses to be improved. But I believe this total is too high. Akron actually has some good linebackers and a very good safety, Alvin Davis. The Zips held seven of their last 10 foes to 28 points or less in 2018. Illinois had a very bad defense last year. That's a reason why this total is so high. But the Illini have some promising young players on defense. They also figure to play ball control in this matchup running the ball alot with Reggie Corbin. Lovie Smith is a very conservative coach and he's favored by close to three touchdowns in this game. So expect Illinois not to take any chances. Just be very vanilla especially since this is the first game.
08-30-19	Rice v. Army OVER 48	Top	7-14	Loss	-105	95 h 7 m	Show
You better be able to stop the run when playing Army. Rice can't do that. The Owls ranked 112th in scoring defense and 103rd in yards given up last season. Things don't look much better for Rice this season as the Owls had several defections on their defensive line. Army has the quarterback and ground attack to take advantage. The Black Knights finished No. 2 in rushing last season. Army QB Kelvin Hopkins Jr. was the first player in Army history to run and pass for more than 1,000 yards. Rice has excellent depth at wide receiver and at running back. The Owls even have a good tight end. Army's defense is down several key seniors from a year ago and has some vulnerability at linebacker that Rice can exploit. The Over is 12-3-2 the past 17 times Rice has played a non-conference opponent.

1
2
3
4
5