Idaho's offense has come on. The Vandals have the necessary skill position players to get this total over. The over has cashed in 11 of Idaho's last 17 games.The Vandals also have a top place-kicker in Austin Rehkow. 
Georgia State has a better offense than defense. I can't see Georgia State's slowing down Idaho's ground attack and the total is low enough to get involved. 

Louisiana Monroe is very dangerous offensively at home. The Warhawks have gone over in their last three home contests averaging 37.6 points in those games. Opponents, though, have scored 35, 34 and 34 points against Monroe in those games.
Lafayette is going to get a heavy share of points here, too. Louisiana Monroe has one of the worst defenses in the country giving up nearly 40 points per game. 

These are two slow-paced run-oriented teams. So why is the total so high for this American Athletic Conference title game? Oddsmaker can't help but over inflate the line after Navy's 75-31 win against SMU last week with the Midshipmen picking up 605 yards. That help pump Navy's scoring average to more than 41 points per game.
But the Midshipmen have taken advantage of a lot of bad defenses, including SMU. Now they're facing Temple, which gives up the third-fewest yards in the nation. A key for the Owls is experienced linebackers, a crucial element in slowing down Navy's option attack.
Temple lacks elite talent at the skill positions. Owls quarterback Phillip Walker has been picked off 12 times. However, the Owls have a solid ground attack that is more substance than style controlling the ball for more than 34 minutes per game, which ranks fifth in the nation. That keeps the ball away from Navy and is good for the under. These teams may put up touchdowns, but they are going to come following long drives that eat up clock. It's an added bonus if they have to settle for field goals.   
Temple played in last year's ACC championship game and held Houston, a team averaging 40 points, to 24 points in a 24-13 loss. Both teams finished with less than 400 yards of offense and the total went under by 15 1/2 points. 

Stanford's offense is coming on as the Cardinal is averaging 39.2 points in their last four games. Rice surrenders 37.2 points a game and ranks 123rd in total defense. The Owls give up 7.3 yards per play and won't be able to contain Stanford's star running back, Christian McCaffrey. 
Stanford's offensive revival started when Keller Chryst took over the starting quarterback job. He's thrown for 456 yards five touchdowns in the last two games. 
The Owls, though, are averaging more than 30 points during their last three games. Rice beat UTEP, 44-24, last week and did it with redshirt freshman quarterback Jackson Tyner replacing starter Tyler Stehling in the opening drive of the game after Stehling was hurt. Tyner will get the start here.
The Owls have gone over the total 69 percent of the time during their last 68 road games. 

No offense is hotter than Tennessee's. The Volunteers are averaging a staggering 55.6 points in their last three games. Tennessee quarterback Joshua Dobbs has stepped up to account for 10 touchdowns during the last two weeks. Dobbs' 24 touchdown passes are the most in the SEC.
Vanderbilt can't match Dobbs' passing, but the Commodores have a solid ground attack rushing for an average of 313 yards during the past three weeks. Ralph Webb needs just 27 yards to become Vanderbilt's all-time leading rusher. Tennessee has a weak run defense ranking 117th in rush defense yielding an average of 237.9 yards on the ground. 

I'd be surprised if UNLV attempted more than 18 passes in this game unless forced to throw. The Rebels are a running team with a cluster injury problem at wide receiver. Nevada Reno's offense is more balanced but facing a Rebel defense strong at linebacker and senior-laden in the secondary. 
Temperature-wise this game is fine, but gusty winds from 20-to-30 mph are forecast. 
UNLV is on its third quarterback, Kurt Palandech. He's far more of a runner than passer. The Rebels are down to all freshmen wide receives due to injuries. The Wolf Pack rank fifth in the nation in pass defense. They know the Rebels are primed to run the ball so they will stack the line not afraid to load the box. 
There were just 40 points scored in last year's UNLV-Reno game. In the three years since Brian Pollian has been Reno's coach, the Wolf Pack have held UNLV to 27 points or fewer. 

Kansas State can come close to covering this number on its own. The The Wildcats have a balanced offense with running backs Alex Barnes and Charles Jones along with Jesse Ertz helping Kansas State average more than 32 points a game. Kansas gives up 37.6 points per contest and ranks 111th in run defense. Look for the Wildcats to run all over the worn down Jayhawks. 
Kansas' offense has picked up, though, with redshirt freshman quarterback Carter Stanley starting the last two games. The Jayhawks have scored 24 points in each of their last two games. Stanley has a very good receiver in Steven Sims Jr., who has 67 receptions for seven touchdowns and 818 yards. 

It's worth noting, too, the over has cashed five of the last six times the teams have met. 

Clemson can cover this number by itself. Wake Forest played its heart out last week against Louisville even leading the Cardinals in the fourth quarterback. But the Demon Deacons eventually surrendered 44 points and 343 yards rushing. Louisville averaged 9.2 yards per run attempt.
This does not bode well for the Demon Deacons. Clemson's defense got worn down last week in a 43-42 loss to Pittsburgh. The Tigers are in an angry mood and will be pumped to pour it on Wake Forest. They won't be adverse to running up a score especially with rankings at stake. 
The Tigers have a top-15 offense averaging 38.9 points per game. That average climbs to 42.5 points if you count just their last six games - all versus ACC opponents.  

I'm surprised to see this total open so low. Northwestern has some excellent skill position talent. If you discount games against Ohio State and Wisconsin - both of whom have vastly better defenses than Minnesota - the Wildcats are averaging 39.7 points in their last four games. Wildcats QB Clayton Thorson is coming off a career-high 352 yards throwing while accounting for four touchdowns against Purdue. 
Minnesota averages just a shade under 32 points per game. If you discount a 14-7 defeat to Iowa in Week 5, the Gophers have averaged 39.4 points at home against five opponents. 
The Gophers feature one of the best running backs in the country, Rodney Smith. He's rushed for more than 1,000 yards, averages 5.2 yards a carry and has scored 14 touchdowns. 

As the competition gets worse, Wisconsin's offense gets rolling. The Badgers rushed for 363 yards against Illinois last week in a 48-3 victory. Now the Badgers draw even a worst defense - Purdue. The Boilermakers defense is just worn down. In their last three games, they've surrendered 62 points to Penn State, 44 to Minnesota and 45 to Northwestern. Only nine teams give up more points per game than Purdue at 38.4.  
The Badgers have a top running back, Corey Clement, to take advantage. After a slow start, Clement has come on to rush for more than 100 yards in four of his last five games. 
Unlike Illinois, Purdue does have a clue on offense. The Boilermakers have scored at least 31 points in half of their last six games. The Boilermakers have that perfect combination for going over the total - a bad defense and decent offense. That's why the over has cashed in eight of Purdue's past nine Big Ten games. 

Bad weather is expected with the weather forecast calling for an 80 percent of rain and wind up to 20 mph. 
But it's not just bad weather why I strongly like this game to go under this posted total. Washington has a tremendous defense and is facing a freshman quarterback, Sam Danold. The Huskies are allowing only 17 points per game. They rank 11th in scoring defense and 18th in total defense. The Huskies are at their stingiest playing at home allowing just 11 points per game. 
USC has picked up its defense led by a pair of outstanding linebackers. The Trojans are giving up an average of fewer than 20 points per game and 368 yards during their last three games. During this span, the Trojans held Oregon, Cal and Arizona to a combined 39 points under their averages. The Trojans have gone under in their last five games and in 10 of their last 14 road games. 
Tempo-wise neither team plays fast. The under is 6-1-1 the past eight times these two teams have met. 

After five straight games of facing tough Big Ten defenses, the Badgers step down in class here. Illinois is surrendering nearly 30 points a game.
Corey Clement was thought to be one of the top running backs coming into the season. He's gotten going after a slow start averaging 121.5 yards per game and 4.4 yards a carry during the last four games. The Badgers have rushed for an average of 204.3 yards per game during this time span. 
This is what Wisconsin coach Paul Chryst was quoted as saying, "I think the line has gotten better. I think the tight ends and fullbacks have done some good things. I think the backs are getting better."
Illinois is down to third-string quarterback Jeff George Jr. The Illini don't have much of an offense, but the Badgers can cover this total by themselves plus I see Illinois putting up some points because they figure to be passing a lot. Wisconsin has several defensive injuries. The Badgers are without their starting nose guard and two starting inside linebackers.

Virginia Tech quarterback Jerod Evans is playing his finest ball throwing for 665 yards and four touchdowns during the past two weeks. Duke is minus its top cornerback, DeVon Edwards. 
Duke quarterback Daniel Jones is a dual threat. He can keep up with Evans. He's the first Duke freshman to have three 300-yard passing games. 

This total is set too high especially given Seth Russell's not-for-certain status and TCU's quarterback problems. Starting Horned Frogs quarterback Kenny Hill was so bad last week he was pulled. Hill has been picked off 10 times this season. The Horned Frogs' best running back, Kyle Hicks, is dealing with a sore ankle. 
The combination of these two defenses not being that bad and the potential injury/reduction in effectiveness from key skill position players makes the under an attractive way to go here. 

Stanford's offense is picking up and the Cardinal is going against a weak Oregon State defense that ranks 103rd in scoring defense giving up 32.6 points a game. 

Oregon State showed its capable of moving the ball, especially on the ground, in a 35-31 loss to Washington State. The Beavers rank 44th in the nation in rushing averaging nearly 200 yards per game on the ground. 

Mike Leach has made Washington State a high-scoring team, one of the top 15 in the nation averaging more than 40 points a game. Luke Falk is an upper tier quarterback and the Cougars have improved their ground attack. Washington State has its highest yard per carry rushing at 3.87 since Leach took over in 2012. 
Oregon State ranks 96th in scoring defense allowing an average of 30.3 points per game. Flak is completing nearly 73 percent of his throws. 

The Beavers do have a decent secondary, but they can't sell out to stop Falk because Washington State's ground attack has come on so much. 
The Beavers rush for 200 yards per game. So they can set up the pass with play-action. 
Last year, the teams combined for 83 points in Washington State's 53-31 victory. That was the Cougars' highest-rated passing game of the season. 

Ohio State gives up less than 13 points per game. Penn State has picked up its ground attack. The Nittany Lions will try to stay on the ground to keep the ball away from Ohio State. That will keep the clock running. The Buckeyes have allowed just one touchdown rushing all season. 
The key is Penn State's holding Ohio State somewhat in check. There are factors why this could happen. The Nittany Lions will be rested, focused and well prepared after being idle last week. They also are expected to get a couple of injured linebackers back. 
Ohio State is in a flat spot on the road for a second consecutive week after an emotional overtime victory against Wisconsin. The under has cashed seven of the last nine times Ohio State has met a Big Ten foe. 
There also is a weather factor. There's a chance of rain and gusting winds. Right now the forecast is calling for wind in the 15 mph range. 

The offenses could come out rusty. Cincinnati, which ranks 11th in the American Athletic Conference in scoring at 23 points a game, had a bye last week. East Carolina was supposed to play last Thursday, but that game was postponed due to Hurricane Matthew.
In an effort to jumpstart their offense, the Bearcats are turning to Gunther Kiel to be their new starting quarterback. Kiel has never lived up to his vast potential. He had been Cincinnati's third-string quarterback. It's a big stretch to think the Bearcats' offense will respond better to him.
East Carolina ranks last in the nation in red zone scoring percentage. Cincinnati ranks in the top five in red zone scoring defense.  
The under has cashed in eight of Cincinnati's last nine October games, while the Pirates have gone under in seven of their last eight conference matchups.

I'm not nominating either team for having the defense of the year. Both team's offenses are much better than their respective defenses. But the setting and total make this a worthy under the total investment. 
This total is through the roof in part because Oregon surrendered 70 points to Washington its last game and Cal has an outstanding quarterback. Davis Webb. Some of the Oregon players called out its defense following that brutal 70-21 loss to the Huskies.
But it's important to note the Ducks had a bye last week. They also had a player's only meeting this week. The Ducks have dropped four in a row. They are fresh following their bye, though, and should be extremely motivated after the Washington debacle. Webb hurt his hand during his last start, although he's expected to start. His top receiver, Chad Hansen, is dealing with an ankle injury. 
Everything needs to line up perfect for an over to happen on a total this high. It's a tremendous plus for the under if Webb and Hansen are less than 100 percent. 
The Golden Bears have a decent pass defense, ranking in the top 50. Oregon freshman quarterback Justin Herbert is set to make just his second start. The Ducks figure to do plenty of running, which eats clock. Cal shouldn't be taken by surprise by this also having had an extra week to rest, prepare and get fresh again since it also had a bye last week. 
Oregon kept Jared Goff, the No. 1 overall draft pick, in check during last year's meeting beating the Golden Bears, 44-28. That total was lined at 75 1/2 so the combined 72 points went under marking the seventh time in the last nine meeting these two teams have gone beneath the total. 

This has been a high scoring series ever since Bob Davie took over at New Mexico in 2012. The combined score of their matchup during the past three years is 82 points in 2013, 66 in 2014 and 82 last season. Look for that trend to continue in Saturday's game, which is on the fast track of the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. 
Early money has been on the under based on the Lobos being without injured starting quarterback Austin Apodaca and their best running back, Teriyon Gibson, who had missed the last two games with a strained hamstring. Apodaca isn't likely to play, but Gibson is expected to play. He ranked No. 1 in  average yard per carry before falling out of the rankings due to missing the last two games. 
New Mexico leads the nation in rushing. So they aren't so quarterback dependent as other teams. However, the Lobos can't stop anyone giving up 36 points per game, which ranks 107th in the nation. The over has cashed in the Lobos' last seven games.
Air Force is used to seeing option teams. But the Falcons haven't faced a tempo this quick, or a team this speedy. This is what Falcons defensive coordinator Steve Russ was quoted as saying about New Mexico: "They will be, position for position for position, the fastest team we play." 
The Lobos put up 47 points and 512 yards against Air Force in last year's game. Only California with Jared Goff then at quarterback has put up more yards on the Falcons during the past 29 games. 
Air Force, which has gone over the total in eight of its last nine Mountain West Conference games, is going to score its share of points, too. The Falcons rank in the upper half of the country averaging 33.2 points per contest and 445.2 yards. 
New Mexico's defense is horrible? How horrible? The Lobos surrendered 32 points to New Mexico State, 37 to Rutgers 41 to San Jose State and gave up 49 to Boise State midway through the third quarter last week with the Broncos contend then to sit on a blowout lead. 

Before getting upset by South Alabama, San Diego State had scored 45 points on Cal and 42 on Northern Illinois. The Aztecs have proven they can pile up points against suspect defenses. UNLV ranks 84th in scoring defense allowing 30.4 points a game.
The Aztecs have the nation's leading rusher, Donnel Pumphrey, and are in a foul mood after having their 13-game winning streak ended. San Diego State's offensive coordinator is Jeff Horton, who was once UNLV's head coach. Bobby Hauck is San Diego State's special teams coach. He also is a former head man at UNLV. So expect those coaches to come up with effective offensive designs. 
UNLV has a solid ground attack, too. The Rebels have rushed for 364 yards in each of their last two games and found a quarterback last week in Dalton Sneed. Sneed looked like Doug Flutie in his first start leading the Rebels to a 45-20 victory against Fresno State. 

The oddsmaker isn't given these defenses enough respect making the total this high. 
Texas A&M has a decent offense, but the Aggies have a much stronger defense. The Aggies rank No. 1 in tackles for losses and have a pair of tremendous edge pass rushers in Myles Garrett, who is going to play this week after missing last week, and Daeshon Hall. The Aggies also have one of the top safety trio in the country with Donovan Wilson, Justin Evans and Armani Watts. 
Tennessee is a slow-starting team averaging fewer than 11 points during the first half. The Volunteers aren't going to be able to take it up in the second half - not against this caliber of defense and not at this tough Kyle Field venue. The Vols are going to be without their leading rusher, Jalen Hurd. He's out with a lower body injury. Hurd is a pounder and a good pass blocker. So his presence will be missed for the Vols. 
Defensively, though, the Vols can hang in due to their opportunistic nature. They've forced 10 turnovers. The days of Johnny Manziel are long gone. Trevor Knight isn't a big play quarterback but far more of a game manager-type. The Aggies rank 110th in red zone touchdowns. 

Bowling Green ranks 127th in yards gained. The Falcons are barely averaging 17 points. They aren't going to do much against Ohio, which has one of the better defenses in the MAC. It's been beyond a dismal season for the Falcons, but they should not lack for motivation after falling to Eastern Michigan at home last week. 
The total is high here because Bowling Green not once but TWICE has given up 77 points in a game. That came to Ohio State and Memphis, though, and skewed the Falcons' defensive scoring numbers. Those are a pair of top 15 offenses.
The Falcons have gone under during their last five MAC games. Ohio has gone under in 12 of its last 17 MAC contests. 

This total is lined well shortt of what it should be. Western Michigan edged Central Michigan, 41-39, last season in a game that had a combined 80 points scored. The offenses are just as potent this season. 
Western Michigan is 4-0 for the first time since 1994. The well-balanced Broncos feature an excellent quarterback, Zach Terrell, an outstanding wide receiver in Corey Davis, who is averaging 16.5 yards per catch, and three good running backs. The Broncos had a record-setting offense last season and those key players are all back.
The Broncos already have beaten a pair of Big Ten teams - Illinois and Northwestern - and rank 15th in the country in scoring at 43.8 points per game. They are 39th in yards gained.
Central Michigan is no slouch either at 3-1 and with a Week 2 upset victory against Oklahoma State, 30-27. The Chippewas have a big-time quarterback in Cooper Rush and strong receiving depth. They rate 34th in the nation in scoring at 39.5 points a game and are 35th in yards gained. 
Both team's defenses have improved, but not nearly enough to hold this score down. Central Michigan ranks 69th in pass defense while Western Michigan is 59th in pass defense.

Tommy Armstrong is playing as good, if not better, than any quarterback in the Big Ten. The dual-threat senior has thrown for 931 yards, rushed for four touchdowns and has just one interception. Thanks to Armstrong, the Cornhuskers put up 43 points versus Fresno State, 52 against Wyoming, 35 versus Oregon and 556 yards against Northwestern last week. 
Armstrong has an 8-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Always a feared runner, Armstrong is averaging a career-high 8.78 yards per attempt on the ground. I see the Cornhuskers doing the job against an Illinois defense that hasn't played well in its last two games yielding nearly 500 rushing yards. 
Illinois, however, has a pair of dependable running backs who can open things up for quarterback Wes Lunt. 

Buffalo ranks No. 2 in the nation in pass defense. Boston College coach Steve Addazio already has stated his intentions to have his team run the ball a lot. That's another plus for the under. 
Note, too, that the Eagles have been a big under team when meeting non-league opponents. The under has cashed 27 of the last 36 times the Eagles have played a non-ACC foe. 

This is my total of the week. Punting can't be overlooked here. Neither team has a strong punting game. Air Force can especially exploit a short field. The Falcons lead the nation in rush yards per game and are fifth in total offense. They will be well rested, too, following a bye week.

Air Force scored 48 points on Georgia State in its last game two weeks ago. By contrast, Wisconsin managed only 23 points against Georgia State and that was in Madison. 
Utah State has capable skill position players in dual threat quarterback Kent Myers and running backs Devante Mays and Tonny Lindsey.
Both teams have strong kick returners.

Both teams have a strong history of going over the total in Mountain West Conference action. Air Force has gone above the total seven times in a row in conference, while the over has cashed nine of the last 10 times Utah State has played a Mountain West opponent. 

Don't look for a game like last year's 44-41 shootout won by Memphis. Bowling Green won't be able to keep pace this year. The Falcons are averaging fewer than 20 points per game. The Falcons have not received good quarterback play and haven't decided on a full-time starter. 
Memphis should put up its share of points,but the Tigers are far from perfect offensively. They gave up five sacks to Kansas last week and have a much bigger game next week when they play Mississippi on the road. So the Tigers likely will be pulling starters if they build a big lead. 

Mighty Michigan can nearly cover this total by itself averaging 53 points per game. The Wolverines host Penn State, which is giving up nearly 35 points per game during its past two games and is extremely thin at linebacker. 
Already missing two linebackers, the Nittany Lions lost perhaps their best defensive player, senior linebacker Nyeem Wartman-White, to a season-ending knee injury last week. Michigan quarterback Wilton Speight has established himself with three consecutive strong games. The Wolverines will be looking to go over the total for an eighth straight time at home. 
Penn State should be able to put up its share of points against a Michigan defense that yielded four touchdowns to Colorado at home last week. The Nittany Lions have a pair of potential sophomore stars on offense in quarterback Trace McSorley, who is proving to be an adequate replacement for Christian Hackenberg, and running back Saquon Barkley.

I haven't forgotten about last year's game when Georgia won, 9-6, holding the Tigers to a season-low 164 yards of total offense. 
While I don't expect so few points to be scored in this year's game, I do strongly believe oddsmakers have set too high of a total.
Missouri is better defensively - particularly in the defensive line - than it has showed. Georgia's offensive line has been struggling, too. It was embarrassing for the Bulldogs linemen not to be able to get a push against Nicholls State, an FCS team. The Bulldogs haven't completely settled on their starting quarterback either. 
Missouri's offense is overrated. The Tigers played Eastern Michigan last week racking up 61 points. They had scored only 11 points versus West Virginia opening week. 
These are a couple of under teams, too. The under has cashed in 14 of Georgia's last 17 games while the Tigers have gone under in 12 of their last 15 home contests. 

Central Michigan is going to gets its points against a UNLV defense that doesn't tackle well and has only two sacks in two games. The Chippewas have an outstanding quarterback, Cooper Rush. He's a four-year starter and the active leader in passing yards with 9,952.
The Rebels couldn't put any pressure on UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen last week in a 42-21 loss and I don't see them doing it here on the road again.
The Rebels can run the ball, though, with Lexington Thomas. The Rebels have become an over team under second-year coach Tony Sanchez going above the number in 16 of their last 21 games. 

Wisconsin scored 54 points on Akron last week at home and Akron is better than Georgia State. 
The physical Badgers just wear weaker, depth-shy opponents down. That will be the case here as Georgia State got worn down in Week 1 by Air Force surrendering 48 points on the road. The Panthers surrendered 531 yards to the Falcons as their defense was on the field for nearly 46 minutes. The Badgers rank No. 2 in the nation in time of possession.
So Wisconsin very well could cover this total by itself. But just in case Georgia State can take advantage of Wisconsin defensive injuries and that the Badgers will be resting some of their defenders in anticipation of next week's Big Ten opener against Michigan State. 
The Badgers are a running team with a deep set of running backs. So their reserves should be able to keep pounding the Panthers' defense. 

The Tracy Claeys era kicks off in Minnesota with this matchup. Look for the Gophers to be more spread out offensively - and be more daring - with the coaching change from Jerry Kill to Claeys.

This is good news for Gophers quarterback Mitch Leidner. The Gophers certainly are going to run the ball, too, with Shannon Brooks and Rodney Smith. They combined for nearly 1,400 yards rushing last season. 
Claeys probably wouldn't be opposed to piling up points for the home crowd in his head coaching debut. The Gophers can do that against a Beavers defense that was one of the worst in the country last season finishing 113th in scoring and 115th in total defense. Oregon State remains young on defense, very much a continued work-in-progress. 
However, Oregon State has the offense to hang with Minnesota. Second-year Oregon State head coach Gary Andersen is a sharp offensive coach. It looks like the Beavers have found themselves a good quarterback, too, in Darrell Garretson. He was a recruit of Andersen back from when he was coaching Utah State. Garretson has played in 14 games throwing for 2,576 yards with a 63 percent completion rate and 137.9 passer rating. He looked sharp in the spring. 
The Gophers probably are going to slip defensively having lost three of their five leading tacklers. 
Factor it all out and the two teams should combine to easily break the 50-point barrier. 

Some bowl games are going to feature shootouts. Not the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl - and it's not just because this is one of the colder, more weather-vulnerable sites being in Boise, Idaho. 
Akron ranks No. 3 in the country in rushing defense and 17th in total defense. The Zips were fortunate to get some big-time transfers added to an already promising defense headed by senior linebacker Jatavis Brown. He's the MAC Defensive Player of the Year with 108 tackles, 17 1/2 tackles for losses and 10 1/2 sacks. 
Only three opponents scored more than 21 points on the Zips and two of them were Oklahoma and Bowling Green, which feature potent passing attacks something Utah State doesn't possess. The Aggies ranked just 92nd in total offense.
The under has cashed 70 percent of the time during Akron's last 43 games under Terry Bowden. It's clear Akron is a strong under team. 
Utah State is strong defensively, too. The Aggies are 22nd in total defense. Kyler Fackrell led the nation in fumble recoveries. He and Nick Vigil are probably the two best linebackers in the Mountain West Conference. 
The oddsmaker may have unfairly downgraded the Aggies' defense, though, after BYU beat Utah State, 51-28, in the last game of the regular season. The Cougars scored 51 points, but gained only 358 yards. 

Look for defense, not offense, to dominate in the inaugural American Athletic Conference title game between Temple and Houston just like it has during the previous two meetings between these teams.
Houston hosted Temple last season and won, 31-10. The Cougars also defeated the Owls, 22-13, on the road in 2013. 
Both teams are just as strong, if not stronger, defensively this season. Temple gives up less than 19 points per game. Only 15 teams surrender fewer points. The Owls also rank 17th in total defense sparked by senior linebacker Tyler Matakevich. They haven't allowed a touchdown during their last two games. 
The Cougars rank 22nd in scoring defense holding opponents to 21.1 points per contest. They are among the leaders in creating turnovers and also have the No. 12 run defense in the nation, huge because the Owls heavily rely on their star running back Jahad Thomas. He rushed for 49 yards against the Cougars last season. 

Houston likes to run, too, behind dual threat quarterback Greg Ward Jr. The Owls will be prepared for him. Temple has held six of its last nine opponents to less than 17 points. 
The combination of two strong defenses and a lot of running ball - which eats clock - sets up this strong under play. 

SMU always is worth a strong look when the total is under 60. The Mustangs score nearly 30 points a game while surrendering nearly 47 points per game. They rank 128th in points allowed and 122nd in yards given up. The over has cashed in six of SMU's last eight games. 
Tulane has a good quarterback in Tanner Lee. So does SMU with Matt Davis, who is a dual threat. The Green Wave, though, are giving up an average of more than 34 points a game.

Both of these schools are under teams when it comes to SEC play combining to go below the total in 17 of their last 20 league matchups. 
They also have a history of low-scoring games against each other since Bret Bielema came to Arkansas. Two years ago in Bielema's first season with the Razorbacks there were 41 points combined. Last year, there were 27 combined points.
Arkansas' scoring numbers are skewed and misleading because the Razorbacks have played six overtime periods this season. 

Both offenses are in good form. Toledo is averaging 44.7 points in its last four games. Central Michigan is averaging 40 points during its last two home games. Those matchups were against Buffalo and Northern Illinois. 

Toledo has a strong rushing attack headed by a now healthy Kareem Hunt, probably the Mid-American Conference's top running back. The Rockets have rushed for 238 or more yards in each of their last five games. They have excellent running back depth behind Hunt.
Central Michigan allowed both Western Michigan and Northern Illinois to each rush for more than 200 yards against them. 
The Chippewas' strength is quarterback Cooper Rush and a deep set of wider receivers. Central Michigan averages nearly 300 yards passing per game. Rush is completing 69 percent of his throws with just eight interceptions in 335 attempts. He has 14 touchdown passes in his last five games. 
The Rockets have surrendered six touchdown passes in their last two games. Northern Illinois averaged 17.3 yards per pass completion in knocking off Toledo last week. The Rockets have faced a number of weak passing offenses in the conference. So I see their secondary being quite vulnerable to Rush. 
Note that the winning team in this series has scored at least 38 points during each of the previous six games.

Utah State has a strong balanced offense that keeps getting better. The Aggies have scored 52 or more points in three of their last four games. They have gone over the total in each of their last six games. 
New Mexico's defense is surrendering an average of 32 points since Week 2 when it started facing Division I opponents. 
The Lobos, though, rank 12th in the nation in rushing at 252.2 yards per game. The Aggies have been weak versus the run lately allowing their last two foes - San Diego State and Wyoming, minus its starting quarterback, - to rush for more than 300 yards per game while averaging 5.5 yards per run. New Mexico averages 5.3 yards per rush. 
Note, too, that the Lobos have gone over in five of their last six home contests. 

This is my Total of the Week.

BYU is rolling with a four-game winning streak. The Cougars are averaging 45.7 points during this span. Freshman Tanner Mangum has proven to be an able replacement for injured starting quarterback Tayson Hill. 
The Cougars have several decent running backs to support Hill and could get senior Adam Hind back for this game. 
San Jose State also has showed well offensively is most of their games. The Spartans' starting offensive line has been intact all season and senior Tyler Ervin is one of the top playmakers in the country ranking third in rushing with 1,159 yards and has another 232 yards receiving. 
The Spartans were idle last week. They have gone over the total six of the last seven times following a bye. 

This is the lowest SMU total of the season - and it gets me involved. The Mustangs have a good quarterback, Matt Davis, and are averaging nearly 30 points a game.

But their defense is terrible ranking near the bottom in all the major categories. The Mustangs are giving up 43.6 points per game. 

These teams met two years ago and there were a combined 108 points scored. Temple is stepping way down in class and has put up a lot of points on better defenses than the Mustangs. 

Power ratings-wise I have this total rated much higher in a battle of the two best offenses in the Pac-12.
Stanford has really cranked up its offense since Week 1 scoring at least 31 points during each of its past six games. The Cardinal is averaging 47.3 points in their last three games. Washington ranks 90th in points allowed per game at 31 and is 97th in total yards defensively.
The Cougars can pile up the points, too, behind quarterback Luke Falk. They rank No. 2 in the nation in passing. The over has cashed 20 of the last 28 times Washington State has played at home. 

Florida quarterback Treon Harris looked good in his last game replacing suspended Will Grier. He threw for 217 yards and two scores in a 35-28 road loss to LSU. Harris helped lead the Gators past Georgia in last season's game, 38-20.

Kelvin Taylor gives Florida a respected runner and the Gators are deep at tight end. Taylor gashed Georgia for 197 yards rushing in last year's game. 
On the Georgia side, Sony Michael has filled in nicely for injured Nick Chubb. The Bulldogs have gone over in 15 of their last 22 SEC contests. Expect Georgia to play loose and fast in this one. Also expect some wrinkles as both team's also are off byes.

The Broncos are balanced and have far too many weapons for the Rebels to stop. UNLV only has six sacks on the season. 

UNLV, though, is capable of putting up its share of points especially with quarterback Blake Decker back from a shoulder injury. UNLV is averaging 39.5 points in its last four games and is averaging 213.6 yards on the ground. Boise State has yielded more than 100 yards rushing in its last three games. 
The Broncos can't just concentrate on stopping UNLV's running attack with Decker behind center. 
Boise State has gone over in 20 of its last 28 road games. 

These two teams have picked up their offenses. 
Old Dominion defeated Charlotte, 37-34, last week. Florida International fell 42-34 to Middle Tennessee last Saturday. 
Panthers sophomore quarterback Alex McGough is coming on. He's coming off a 260-yard passing performance where he threw 51 times. McGough has passed for 200-or-more yards six times this season. He has 14 touchdown throws on the season, which ranks 18th in the nation. 
Alex Gardner provides a ground threat, too, for the Panthers with 454 yards. He's scored a rushing touchdown in his last three games. He also is a good receiving back. 
Richard Leonard is one of the most dangerous kick returners in the country. He's No. 2 in Panthers' school history in return yardage. 
The teams met last year and there were 73 points scored in a 38-35 win for the Monarchs. 

Western Michigan can almost reach this total alone. The Broncos are averaging 36.7 points and 453.6 yards per game - and that's factoring in having played a brutal non-conference schedule.
Western Michigan has gone against Michigan State, Georgia Southern and Ohio State. Those teams entered this week having just one combined loss. 
The Broncos have a top rushing attack that can take advantage of a porous Miami of Ohio defense giving up 36.7 points per game and 453.6 yards. 

Central Florida has surrendered 116 points in its last three games. Temple has a balanced offense that can take advantage behind quarterback P.J. Walker and running back Jahad Thomas. 
Central Florida has yet to intercept a pass this season. 
The Golden Knights should be better offensively, though, with the return of junior quarterback Justin Holman. He's the type of quarterback who can make big plays, but also commit turnovers which are conducive for over the total. 

Sharp money is moving this game up. I respect the line move and am joining in. 
Northern Illinois has gotten its offense back on track putting up 59 points against Ball State in its last game. 
These teams met last year and Northern Illinois won 51-41. The teams combined for 1,172 yards in that game.

Boise State has it going offensively now averaging 51 points during its last four games sparked by freshman quarterback Brett Rypien, who has completed 70.2 percent of his throws for 1,057 yards with a 7-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 

The Broncos have gone over in six of their last seven road games. 

Utah State quarterback Kent Myers also is playing well. He's completing more than 65 percent of his throws. The Aggies are coming off a 56-14 waltz over Fresno State. Myers also is adept at running the ball, too. 

None of the past five games in this series have gone under the total. 

Too much offense here. Both teams are peaking offensively making this total too short. 
East Carolina has played strong competition this season. The Pirates have put up 84 points during their last two games thanks to a balanced attack. They lead the nation in third down conversions. 
BYU has its offense rolling, too, with freshman quarterback Tanner Mangum looking more and more comfortable. Mangum helped the Cougars put up a season-high 539 yards in a 30-13 win against Connecticut last week. Mangum has a deep receiver group with five receivers having more than 200 yards in receptions. 
The Cougars have gone over in five of their last seven home contests 

Clemson led the nation in total defense last year and the Tigers have a top 10 defense again this season. The Tigers have held three opponents to less than 300 yards of total offense, including Louisville. Foes have converted less than 20 percent of the time against Clemson on third down. And remember Notre Dame is without its best running back and starting quarterback. This will be Notre Dame sophomore quarterback DeShone Kizer's first road start. 

Clemson also has lost key offensive starters, including their top receiver, and starting center who is not expected to play. Pass protection has been a problem for Clemson. The Tigers don't have an attack mentality - more of a we'll take what the defense gives approach which is good for under players. 

Notre Dame has a top 40 defense that held Texas to three points and Georgia Tech to 22 points. 

Another key here is weather. Heavy rain and wind are expected. That's going to keep the game plans conservative.  

These teams combined for 119 points last season when Cal nipped Washington State, 60-59. 
While I don't expect that many points this season, I do believe these teams will combine for more than 70 with a quarterback matchup of Luke Falk versus Jared Goff.
The Cougars' Falk has thrown for the most passing yards in the Pac-12 while Goff has passed for 1,240 yards and 11 touchdowns. Goff torched Washington State last year for 527 yards and five touchdowns - and that was in Pullman. 
Cal also is expected to get their best running back this week, Daniel Lasco. He's missed the last two games with a hip injury. 

Kent State isn't very good offensively. The Golden Flashes have scored 10 points in two games versus FBS opponents. Kent State is much stronger defensively. The Golden Flashes have especially showed defensive improvement the past two weeks. Kent State has nine sacks and seven takeaways already this year. 
Kent State quarterback Colin Reardon has trouble when stepping up in class and he's facing a very good and athletic Marshall secondary. 
Marshall can get frustrated in its passing game by Kent State. the Thundering Herd are inexperienced at quarterback and wide receiver. I expect them to play it conservative and feature a lot of running from bowling ball Devon Johnson. That's going to eat clock and given Kent State's offensive problems against quick, athletic defenses should provide an under. 

Oklahoma State is going to get its share of big points with Mason Rudolph and its high-scoring attack. The Cowboys rank in the top 24 in points averaging 41.7 per game and in yards at 509 a game. Rudolph and David Glidden are one of the most feared combinations in the nation with Glidden catching three of Rudolph's five TD passes while coming up with six catches of 20 or more yards. 
Oklahoma State has gone over the total in 20 of its last 28 September games. 
Texas should be able to keep up now that the Longhorns have found their big-play quarterback in Jerrod Heard. Since an opening week loss to Notre Dame, the Longhorns are averaging 43 points and 463.5 yards against Rice and California. 
Texas always had the skill position athletes. The Longhorns just needed to find the right quarterback.

Expect Ohio State to be much sharper offensively and to not be in a generous mood after a flat performance last week against Northern Illinois. Urban Meyer has been known to run up a score and he could here. 
Ohio State star running back Ezekiel Elliott has put together eight straight 100-yard rushing games. He's been outstanding again this season, but quarterbacks Cardale Jones and J.T. Barrett have been up-and-down. Meyer is really pushing them this week. 
Western Michigan can score, with a high octane passing attack, but the Broncos have surrendered 214 points in their last five games. 

I'm not sold on Mississippi's offense facing a defense of this caliber. Alabama yields an average of just 63 yards on the ground and has held its first two foes, Wisconsin and Middle Tennessee, to under 300 total yards. 

I'm also not sold on Alabama's passing attack. The Crimson Tide are one-dimensional featuring lots of running that eats up clock. 

These teams are more about defense than offense. In fact, they both are in the argument for top defense in the country. Those defenses are ahead of the offenses right now. Neither team has fully established its offensive identity yet. 

There were just 40 combined points scored in last season's meeting. The year before that, in 2013, Alabama won, 25-0. 

 I'm surprised this total has been bet up. I'm glad to fade the early steam move. 

Navy's record-setting quarterback Keenan Reynolds was around when these teams last met three years ago. Navy rushed for 512 yards in a 56-28 victory. I don't see East Carolina being able to stop Navy's option attack, nor slow down Reynolds, who has accounted for 65 career touchdowns. 
The Pirates won't be able to key just on Navy's ground attack because they lost a lot in their secondary from last season.
I expect a lot of passing from East Carolina. The Pirates couldn't run on Florida last week, but quarterback Blake Kemp was 34-of-55 throwing for 333 yards and three touchdowns. 

I'm fine with freshman Eric Dungey at quarterback for Syracuse especially now that he's seen action. Dungey looked good in the second half against Wake Forest last week. 
Syracuse put up 40 points on Central Michigan in last season's game. 
Led by quarterback Cooper Rush, Central Michigan has a potent offense. Rush has weapons, too. The Chippewas rank 25th in the country in passing yards. They have gone over in 22 of their last 32 road games. 

Minnesota has gone to a no-huddle offense. That's helped the Gophers finally generate some offense. The Gophers are going to play quick tempo against an overmatched Kent State. Minnesota quarterback Mitch Leidner is an improving player.
The Golden Flashes ranked 107th last year in stopping the run. They gave up 52 points opening week in a road game against another Big Ten team, Illinois. 
Kent State has put up at least 20 points during each of its last four games except for the blowout loss to Illinois. The Golden Flashes showed plenty off offense in rolling up 45 points and close to 500 yards against Delaware State. 

The Jameis Winston era has passed, but the Seminoles' offense remains highly potent with Notre Dame transfer Everett Golson taking over. He's backed by one of the top running backs in the country, sophomore Dalvin Cook. 
Florida State is a perfect 11-for-11 in second-half possessions this season. Golson can take advantage of a young, inexperienced Boston College secondary.
Florida State's defensive strength is its secondary. But Boston College is a running team with a deep crop of very good running back. Boston College has running backs adept at running both inside and outside. The Eagles finished in the top 15 in rushing last season and should duplicate that this season.
Boston College also has a dangerous receiver/returner in Sherman Alston. 

Same old story with Indiana. The Hoosiers can put up big numbers, but can't stop anybody. 
That was evident once again in Indiana's opener last week against Southern Illinois. The Hoosiers put up 595 yards of total offense and 48 points, but surrendered 47 points and 649 yards. 
Nate Sudfeld is a good quarterback and is backed by a balanced Hoosiers offense. Indiana catches Florida International in a tough situation spot. The Golden Panthers opened on the road last week and upset Central Florida as a double-digit 'dog, 15-14. Now they go back on the road off that emotional victory. 
FIU quarterback Alex McGough has thrown six touchdown passes in his last four games. He came on strong late in the season last year playing as a true freshman. McGough will find Indiana's defense much more to his liking than Central Florida's, which has given up an average of 14.7 points in its last four regular season games. 
McGough has two decent running backs, Anthon Samuel and Alex Gardner, and three good tight ends. 
The Hoosiers will be without one of their few good defensive players as linebacker Tegray Scales is sitting out the second of a two-game suspension. 

This is the right matchup to produce an over. Toledo may have the most productive offense in the Mid-American Conference. The Rockets scored 30 or more points in eight of their last 11 games last season. They are loaded at the skill positions. 
However, the Rockets don't have the speed to keep Arkansas in check. The Razorbacks have their own excellent skill position players, including quarterback Brandon Allen, running back Alex Collins and wide receiver Keon Hatcher. Arkansas rolled past UTEP, 48-13, in its opener last week. 
The Razorbacks are going to get their share of points here. The question is how many can the Rockets come up with? I'm confident they will do their share, too, to push this total over. 
The Rockets are anxious to play after their opening game against Stony Brook last Thursday was canceled after two quarters because of severe weather. Arkansas steps up in class offensively after facing the run-oriented Miners. I wasn't overly impressed with Arkansas' tackling in that game. The Razorbacks lost four of its top defensive players to the NFL following last season. The Rockets are far more balanced than UTEP and won't get shut down. 

Colorado is a frustrated team. The Buffaloes have been getting hammered in Pac-12 games. Colorado thought it could end an eight-game losing last week when it opened a touchdown favorite on the road against Hawaii. 
But quarterback Sefo Liufau wasn't that sharp and the Buffaloes lost 28-20. Now Colorado is home, where it plays much better, and has a foe it can hammer in UMass, losers of 31 of its last 36 games since moving up from the FCS' Colonial Athletic Association. 
The Buffaloes are capable of scoring big against a Minutemen squad that surrendered an average of 33 points per game last season. Colorado defeated UMass, 41-38, on the road last year with Liufau throwing three touchdown passes. The Buffaloes do have skill position talent. They know how to spread the ball around. Remember, they are a Pac-12 team. 
The Minutemen, though, have improved tremendously on offense under respected head man Mark Whipple now in his second year. UMass put up 45 touchdowns last year on offense last year, which was 28 more than the previous season before Whipple arrived for his second stint with the school.
UMass has an NFL quarterback prospect in 6-foot-6, 238-pound  Blake Frohnapfel and a star wide receiver in Tajae Sharpe, who caught 85 passes last year. The Minutemen have all but one returning offensive starter and catch the Buffaloes with several defensive line injuries. 

These two Conference USA teams are all about offense with some of the best skill position players in the conference. 
Louisiana Tech has one of the best runners in the country in Kenneth Dixon and Florida transfer Jeff Driskel has found his niche with the Bulldogs. Driskel has a pair of excellent receiving targets in Trent Taylor and Paul Turner.
The Bulldogs finished last season averaging 41.4 points during its final nine games. Louisiana Tech opened 2015 pouring 52 points on Southern - in just the first half. Driskel was hot and Dixon rushed for 106 yards on just nine carries. 
Louisiana Tech beat Western Kentucky last season, 59-10. 
Western Kentucky can do its share of damage with quarterback Brandon Doughty, the nation's passing leader last season, and 1,500-yard rusher Leon Allen. Louisiana Tech lost its respected defensive coordinator, Manny Diaz, and has yet to be tested defensively. 
That's going to come here as it's quite a challenge for a Bulldogs defense that just played FCS-level Southern to revenge-minded Western Kentucky, the pick of many to capture the Western Division of Conference USA. The Hilltoppers scored at least 34 points in all but one of their games last season. 

Alabama is having problems deciding on a quarterback, while Wisconsin's quarterback, Joel Stave, just isn't very good.
Uneven quarterback play isn't going to cut it against these caliber of defenses. Only five teams gave up fewer points per game than Alabama last year, while the Badgers surrendered the fourth fewest yards per game in 2014 holding five opponents to their lowest yardage amount of the season.
Wisconsin has a well respected defensive coordinator, Dave Aranda, who stayed with the program despite a head coaching change. 
Both teams suffered heavier losses on offense than on defense. 
The Crimson Tide are breaking in a new quarterback and are without star wide receiver Amari Cooper, who was the first wide receiver taken in the NFL draft. All together, Alabama lost eight offensive starters from a year ago. So expect a conservative game plan from the Crimson Tide knowing Wisconsin has one of the top secondaries in the country.  
Wisconsin loses Melvin Gordon, maybe the best running back in college last year, along with three offensive line starters. Stave also has to find new receivers. Wisconsin does have a good field goal kicker in Rafael Gaglianone. So I envision the Badgers going for field goals and playing for field position rather than risk playing a wide open game, which isn't their style. 

While Wisconsin has a good field goal kicker, Alabama probably has the best punter in the nation in JK Scott, who had a 48-yard average last season. 

Take Arkansas out of SEC play and the Razorbacks can score a ton such as putting up 73 points on Nicholls State, 49 on Texas Tech, 52 on Northern Illinois and 45 on UAB during non-conference games last season. 
The Razorbacks don't need injured Jonathan Williams when they still have Alex Collins, one of the best running backs in the country, an experienced quarterback, a pair of outstanding tight end and a mammoth offensive line. Collins has exceeded 1,000 yards rushing each of the last two years - and that was splitting carries with Williams. 
UTEP surrendered more than 28 points a game last season and lacks the defensive size and talent to handle Arkansas, but its offense can score. The Miners scored 26 or more points nine times last year. They have a very good running back, too, in 1,300-yard rusher Aaron Jones and a stout offensive line that has four starters back. Arkansas lost much of its starting defense from a year ago. 

This is a Week 1 mistake by the linesmaker as this total is too low. 

Northwestern's offense finished last season in grand style averaging 38 points a game during their last three games, including putting up 43 against Notre Dame. 

The perception is Stanford is going to be a dead nuts under team because of its defense. But the Cardinal has to replace seven defensive starters. 

Stanford also finished last season strong on offense putting up 31 or more points during its last three games, including scoring 45 versus Maryland. Senior quarterback Kevin Hogan was playing extremely well down the stretch and is back for his senior season along with eight other offensive starters, including four linemen.  

There are better defensive players than offensive players in this matchup. This is a down year for senior quarterbacks and it's reflected on each team's roster. There are no big stars and none of the quarterbacks have any former teammates to throw to. This makes their adjustment even more difficult in this type of setting.
The quarterbacks have marginal weapons to work with and are on a short week learning a foreign playbook. The game has averaged less than 35 points during the past five contests, which coincides with the move to Florida.

Ohio State has a super offensive line and a very balanced attack - an excellent running back in Ezekiel Elliott and very good receivers. Ohio State rushed for 34 touchdowns and threw for 39 other touchdowns. The Buckeyes put up 49 points at Michigan State and 59 against Wisconsin at a neutral site. That's strong stuff.

Yet some doubt the Buckeyes' offense because they are using third-string quarterback Cardale Jones. I'm not one of those. Jones was a top high school recruit, who could have been an immediate starter for a lot of schools not as strong as Ohio State. He did very well against Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game in his debut going 12-for-17 for 273 yards with three touchdown passes. Jones is 6-foot-5, 250 pounds and is a load. The Alabama coaching staff just has film on Jones from the Wisconsin game. Jones will be helped, too, by having had 15 extra practice sessions leading up to the game.

Nick Saban doesn't have his usual dominant defense having lost five studs to the NFL after last season. Auburn scored 44 points and gained 630 yards on the Crimson Tide at Alabama. Five other teams threw well against the Crimson Tide, which ranked 59th in pass defense.

I do like Alabama's offense, though, which has become more wide open under aggressive offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin. The Crimson Tide averaged more than 37 points a game and had 32 touchdowns rushing and 30 through the air. Senior quarterback Blake Sims is mobile and passed for a school-record 3,250 yards accounting for 32 touchdowns while throwing just seven interceptions. He was sacked only 13 times.

Sims has outstanding weapons to work with including one of the best running back tandems in the country in T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry. Wide receiver Amari Cooper is expected to be a high NFL draft choice.

So offense - not defense - is the way to go in this matchup especially with a fast track inside a dome.

I like these two offenses much more than the defenses. Nebraska is used to playing run-oriented Big Ten teams. USC is a different animal. The Trojans put up 49 points on Notre Dame in their last game.

Cody Kessler is a standout quarterback for USC, who has thrived under Steve Sarkisian. He completed 71 percent for 3,505 yards with a 36-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Running back Javorius Allen has rushed for 100 yards eight times and the Trojans have five good wide receivers led by the splendid Nelson Agholor, who caught 97 passes for 1,223 yards and 11 touchdowns.

Nebraska is going to get its share of points. The Cornhuskers average 37.4 points per game and 446.3 yards. They have Ameer Abdullah, one of the best running backs in the country, and quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr., who has put up excellent running and passing numbers. 

I see both teams scoring well over 30 points in this matchup.

Rice gives up more than 30 points and ranks 92nd in pass defense. Who can forget the Owls surrendering a staggering 76 points to Louisiana Tech in their last game. That has to totally destroy any confidence.

Fresno State always is strong at the skill spots and that holds true again this season with running back Marteze Waller and wide receiver Josh Harper. The Bulldogs, however, give up more than 36 points a game rank 111th in total defense. They have been at their worst outside of the Mountain West Conference giving up 52, 59 and 55 points when they played USC, Utah and Nebraska.

Rice has put up 31 or more points in five of its last seven games.

Look for defense to rule here. Memphis gives up just 17.1 points per game, which is fifth-best in the nation. The Tigers have a strong defensive front seven and are opportunistic with 27 takeaways. 
The Tigers' defense really came on holding their six opponents to an average of 13.3 points per game. The under has cashed 19 of the past 27 times Memphis has played an opponent with a winning record.  
BYU lost its star quarterback, Taysom Hill and best running back Jamaal Williams to injuries. Hill's replacement, Christian Stewart, is a pocket passer. Stewart picked up his play late in the season, but note that the Cougars finished the regular season taking on three weak defensive teams - UNLV, Savannah State and Cal. They are stepping way up in class defensively here.
Under Bronco Mendenhall, the Cougars also are worthy of respect defensively. Mendenhall is particularly dangerous with ample time to prepare. The under has cashed in six of BYU's last eight bowl games under Mendenhall. 
The Cougars have picked things up defensively, too, holding their last four opponents to an average of less than 17 points per game.  

First off, the weather should cooperate in Boise with this being an afternoon game rather than a night matchup. The afternoon forecast is for temperatures in the 40's with a slight wind and small chance of rain increasing in the night.

Look for plenty of offense here. Western Michigan has an excellent quarterback, Zach Terrell, and running back, Jarvion Franklin. He was one of the top freshmen runners in the country rushing 1,525 yards and 24 touchdowns. Terrell threw for 3,146 yards and 23 touchdowns and had the third-best yards per pass mark at 9.53 in the country. 

Terrell should be able to take advantage of the Falcons secondary, which gave up the second-most passing yards per game in the Mountain West Conference. Air Force has to not only deal with Franklin on the ground, but Western Michigan has two outstanding wide receivers, Corey Davis and Daniel Braverman. Only three receivers in the country had more touchdowns than Davis, who scored at least one touchdown in all but one of his team's 12 games.

Air Force is not without majors weapons, including four good running backs and option quarterback Kale Pearson, who went he did throw was effective with a 14-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a passer rating of 162.5 Western Michigan allows 229.3 passing yards per game.

The Falcons also have one of the top kickers in the country, Will Conant. He was perfect on extra points and made 18 of 20 field goals.  

There were 62 points scored in last year's Iron Bowl with Auburn winning 34-28 and I see at least that points many being scored in today's game.

Nick Marshall is capable of playing much better than he's shown. He had a big game against Alabama last year running for 99 yards and throwing two touchdown passes. He has the necessary mobility to give Alabama's defense problems. A plus for Marshall is the Tigers could have back their leading wide receiver, D'haquille Williams.

Alabama should light up an Auburn defense that has really slipped. Alabama QB Blake Sims and star wideout Amari Cooper are playing at huge levels. The Tigers have surrendered an average of 35.8 points in their last five SEC games.

UNLV ranks 113th in scoring averaging 20.3 points per game. The Rebels' game plan is going to be stay on the ground. The Rebels have to do this to protect QB Blake Decker, who is not 100 percent, or if backup Jared Lebowitz plays. Plus Hawaii has a weak run defense. So a lot of clock is going to get eaten up.

Hawaii scores even less points per game than the Rebels. They Warriors have a horrible passing attack. Their quarterback, Ikaika Woolsey, completes less than 50 percent of his throws. So the Warriors are going to be staying on the ground, too.

Yes, these defenses are bad. But both team's offenses are really struggling. As bad as the defenses are, the offenses are worse.

Both team's offenses are coming on and Tennessee has to deal with a pair of defensive suspensions leaving its defense vulnerable.

Missouri's passing attack is aided by the return of Darius White. He caught six passes for 55 yards and a touchdown last week in a victory against Texas A&M. The Tigers, with a balanced attack, piled up nearly 600 yards of offense.

Tennessee's offense has turned around, too. The Vols are averaging 47.5 points in their last two games.

Both defenses have outstanding pass rushers. Arizona's Scooby Wright leads the Pac-12 in tackles and has 12 sacks, third-most in the conference.

Utah's offense hasn't been the same since losing leading receiver and dangerous playmaker Dres Anderson to a season-ending knee injury Oct. 25. The Utes rank last in the Pac-12 in yards per game.

The Utes do it with defense. They have the most sacks in the country. Nate Orchard has 16 1/2 sacks. Utah's fierce pass rush is huge against Arizona QB Anu Solomon, who becomes erratic when up against a tough pass rush.

Utah also has an outstanding punter in Tom Hackett. He leads the nation in punts inside the 10-yard line. 

Two young quarterbacks are getting their opportunity here. They are going against terrible defenses and should have nothing to lose.

South Florida ranks 88th in points allowed at 29.3. The Bulls are 83rd in yards allowed at 429.9. Matt Davis gets his second start at QB for SMU. He set a school record for rushing yards in his debut rushing for 181 and scoring two touchdowns against Tulsa. Davis passed for another 212 yards.

The Mustangs scored a season-high 28 points behind Davis, who upgrades SMU's offense quite a bit.

South Florida is off a bye and has two weeks to prepare freshman Quinton Flowers for his quarterback start. Flowers has limited experience, but sources say he is greatly improved from the start of camp. 

Flowers is going against one of the worst defenses in the country as the Mustangs rank 128th in points allowed per game at 46.8 and yards per game at 547. 

Joshua Dobbs has gotten Tennessee back on track. The multi-purpose quarterback passed for 300 yards and rushed for 100 yards in leading the Volunteers past South Carolina, 42-28, in their last game.

Prior to that, Dobbs put a scare into Alabama after getting untracked during the final three quarters. Kentucky's defense is worn down from playing eight straight weeks. The Wildcats are surrendering 42.2 points per game during their last four games. 

The Wildcats can put up their share of points, though, behind quarterback Patrick Towles, who has thrown for 2,374 yards and 14 touchdowns.

Memphis leads the American Athletic Conference in offense averaging 33.8 points per game. Tigers quarterback Paxton Lynch has the best passer rating in the league. He's accounted for 18 touchdowns. Lynch is just the third Memphis quarterback in history to pass for 2,000 yards in multiple seasons.

Tulane yields nearly 30 points per game.

The Green Wave offense is back on track putting up 31 against Houston last week. Quarterback Tanner Lee and running back Sherman Badies and multi-purpose Dontrell Hilliard provide the Green Wave with enough offense to help push this total over. Tulane has a lot more confidence offensively now after upsetting Houston.

Neither team has the defense to stop the other team's offense. I see no problem for Ball State and Massachusetts to each score at least 30 points.

Ball State has gone over the total in seven of its last nine Mid-American Conference games. The Cardinals are giving up an average of 32.3 points during their last six games. Their secondary is extremely banged-up, especially after losing their top cornerback, Eric Patterson, last week. The Cardinals are forced to rotate three young cornerbacks.

This sets up a nightmare matchup for the Cardinals facing UMass quarterback Blake Frohnapfel, a transfer from Marshall who has thrived under quarterback guru Mark Whipple's pro-style offense. Frohnapfel not only has a strong arm, but touch to go with it. He has probably the best receiver in the MAC to throw to in Tajae Sharpe.

Whipple has turned around UMass. The Minutemen faced a brutal non-league slate playing teams from the ACC, Pac-12, SEC and Big Ten in their first four games. Since then they've played five MAC schools and Frohnapfel has averaged 408 yards passing per game with a 17-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's thrown for 55.3 yards per game more than any other quarterback in the MAC on the season. Sharpe and Jean Sifrin provide Frohnapfel with a pair of tall, dangerous targets. They should light up Ball State's vulnerable secondary especially having an 18-day layoff to rest and prepare.

The Minutemen, though, can't stop anybody on defense. They rank 108th in both points allowed giving up 35 per game and yards allowed permitting 458.3 per contest. UMass is surrendering more than 200 yards per game on the ground.

Ball State lost a lot of its firepower from last season, but still has an excellent running back in Jahwan Edwards. He's rushed for 48 touchdowns in his career and has accounted for more than 1,100 yards rushing and receiving this year.

The game is being played in Foxboro, home of the Patriots where the weather can get tricky. But the forecast is for temperatures in the 40s with no rain and little wind.

Tulane's ground attack is underrated and its quarterback, Tanner Lee, is a veteran. So I'm expecting Tulane to get its share of points.

Houston, though, should put up a big number on a Green Wave defense surrendering nearly 30 points a game. Tulane hasn't been able to slow down good offenses giving up 38 to Cincinnati last week while also allowing 47 points to Duke and 31 to Rutgers. The Green Wave also gave up 38 points to Georgia Tech and Tulsa in overtime. Look for Houston to score in the high 30's. 

I like Houston's offense more since the Cougars made the quarterback switch to Greg Ward Jr., who gives them a running dimension to go with a passing attack. The Cougars are averaging 166 yards on the ground and have scored 15 touchdowns rushing in eight games.

Georgia put up 59 points on Kentucky last year and is averaging 40.5 points per game and 440 yards. The Bulldogs do this with a balanced attack that Kentucky is going to have problems handling.

Georgia's run defense sprung a leak last week giving up more than 400 yards on the ground to Florida. Kentucky's offense is better this season with Patrick Towles at quarterback. The Wildcats are averaging 29.2 points per game and 407.8 yards. They have good depth at running back.

The Bulldogs have gone over in seven of their last eight SEC games and have gone over the total in 11 of their last 14 following a loss.

These two teams have had it rough so expect a free-wheeling matchup with nothing to lose. SMU has struggled offensively. However, the Mustangs are off a bye and facing a Tulsa defense that ranks 122nd in scoring defense giving up 40.6 points a game and is 115th in yards allowed at 486.2.

Garrett Krstich is the best quarterback SMU has and he's playing now. He should be able to put up points against this weak of a defensive opponent.

Tulsa is going to get a boatload of points, too, as the Mustangs have allowed at least 41 points to every opponent. SMU ranks last in the nation in points allowed per game at 48 and is last in yards given up at 550. Tulsa is a respectable 52nd in yards gained per game at 430.5.

The over has cashed in five of SMU's last six games as the oddsmaker isn't sure what to do with such a bad team. The over has also cashed in eight of Tulsa's last nine games. The Golden Hurricane have gone over in their last six home contests.

San Jose State's defensive strength is pass defense. They are 119th versus the run. That's a big plus for Rams running back Dee Hart. But Colorado State's passing offense trumps San Jose State's pass defense, too.

Colorado State Garrett Grayson has a 21-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 65.3 completion percentage. He also has one of the best wide receivers in the country, Rashard Higgins. He's put together four straight receiving games of at least 170 yards. Higgins has scored 12 touchdowns and is averaging more than 19 yards per catch.

Quarterback Joe Gray is coming on for San Jose State. The Rams rank 80th in yards allowed. So the Spartans are going to put up their share of points.

Nebraska averages more than 41 points per game. The Cornhuskers have been right near that average in their last two games averaging 40 points against Northwestern and Rutgers. Now the Cornhuskers face a weak Purdue defense that gives up 31.2 points per game and 429.2 yards. The Boilermakers rank 11th and 12th in the Big Ten in those two most important defensive categories.

Ameer Abdullah is in the Heisman Trophy talk. The Nebraska running back leads the nation in rushing and is second in rushing touchdowns with 17. Purdue has yielded 6.1 yards per rush during its last two games.

The Boilermakers have enough versatile players on offense to put up their share of points to help push this total over. Purdue has some decent backs and is averaging better than 28 points per game. The Boilermakers have gone over in four of their last five road contests.

West Virginia held Baylor and Oklahoma State to well below their season averages during the last two weeks. The Mountaineers are capable of holding TCU to far below its 50.4 scoring average, too, being at home in what could be less than ideal playing conditions.

Rain is expected possibly turning to snow. Wind could factor, too, with the forecast being for breezes in the 15-20 mph range.

TCU's offense draws all the attention. But the Horned Frogs have a strong defense, too. They rank among the leaders in the high-scoring Big 12 giving up 21.6 points per game and 132.3 rushing yards. Only 30 teams in the country give up fewer points per game than the Horned Frogs, which is especially impressive given their schedule.

J.T. Barrett and the Buckeyes are rolling scoring 56, 52, 50 and 66 points in their last four games while going above 500 yards of offense in each game. Barrett has been more than adequate replacing Broxton Miller. Barrett's touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last four games is an insane 17-to-1.

Penn State has thin depth and is wearing down. The Nittany Lions aren't going to be able to slow down the Buckeyes. Ohio State put up 63 points on the Nittany Lions last year.

Penn State, though, has an outstanding quarterback, Christian Hackenberg. He leads the Big Ten in passing and can keep the Nittany Lions in the game.

Texas is getting better offensively and worse defensively. Sophomore Longhorns QB Tyrone Swoopes is showing much improvement. He's passed for 334 and 321 yards during the past two games. The Longhorns scored 48 points and put up 512 yards of offense last week versus Iowa State.

Kansas State isn't flashy with QB Jake Waters. But the Wildcats are going to get their points. K-State averages 39.2 points per game and leads the Big 12 in third-down conversions.

Waters is overshadowed by other quarterbacks in the conference, but he is highly efficient both throwing and running. Waters has completed better than 65 percent of his throws and also leads the Wildcats in rushing.

K-State averages 4.6 yards per rush and has scored 19 touchdowns on the ground. Texas allowed 200 yards rushing to BYU, UCLA and Baylor. Then against Iowa State last week, the Longhorns gave up 345 yards and three touchdowns through the air. 

The combination of K-State's efficient and reliable offense plus Texas' improved quarterback play and defensive regression makes this an over play.

The Badgers are the No. 2 rushing team in the nation. Melvin Gordon is averaging 217 yards rushing in his last four games. He's in the argument for best running back in the country. Maryland ranks 104th in rush defense.

The Terrapins are not going to be able to stop Wisconsin's ground attack. The Badgers have mediocre quarterbacks, but they'll be able to pick and choose their spots effectively against Maryland.

The Terrapins are capable of trading points with Wisconsin with multi-purpose quarterback C.J. Brown. The Terrapins also have a top receiver in Stefon Diggs and an outstanding place-kicker in Brad Craddock, who has made 18 consecutive field goals. Maryland has dangerous kick/punt returners, too, and Wisconsin has a line drive punter.

Any time I see a total of less than 60 in a Conference USA game, I think over the total. I especially like this Conference USA matchup to go over. North Texas is a strong running team. Southern Mississppi ranks 120th in run defense. The Mean Green are averaging more than 32 points per game while surrendering more than 30 a game. North Texas gave up 42 points to Louisiana Tech and 56 to UAB in earlier Conference USA matchups. Southern Mississippi hasn't been much better on defense against Conference USA foes yielding 41 points to Rice and 37 to Middle Tennessee. Last year, North Texas put up 55 points on Southern Mississippi. The key is if the Golden Eagles will contribute their share of points to pushing this total over. I believe they will. Golden Eagles QB Nick Mullens is off his best game. He was 36-of-54 for 426 yards and three touchdowns on the road against Middle Tennessee. The over has cashed in 16 of Southern Mississippi's last 21 road games.

Both teams were idle last week giving them extra planning and adding new wrinkles to their respective offenses, which have been quite good. Let's start with Rutgers and its excellent quarterback Gary Nova. He's averaging close to 270 yards passing a game with a 60 percent completion rate and 13 touchdown throws. He has two reliable running backs in Paul James and Desmon Peoples. Ohio State's secondary is suspect. I see Nova hooking up frequently with Leonte Caroo and taking advantage of that. On the flip side, Ohio State quarterback T.J. Barrett is coming on. He's more than adequately replaced injured Braxton Miller. Barrett set a school record with a 14-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last three games. Like Miller, Barrett can both pass and run. He's completed a Big Ten-best 66.2 percent of his throws and also is the team's second leading rusher with 276 yards. Thanks in large part to Barrett, the Buckeyes have put up three consecutive 500-yard games. They are the No. 5 scoring team in the country at 44.6 points per game.

Cincinnati's defense is terrible and Miami's defense can't be trusted.

The Bearcats are giving up an average of 45.5 points in their last two games. They can't stop opponents on the ground, nor in the air ranking 121st and 123rd. They are not going to be able to handle Miami's star running back Duke Johnson, which is going to open things up for the Hurricanes' passing attack. The Hurricanes average nearly 35 points when playing at home.

Cincinnati lost its starting quarterback, but has an experienced backup in Munchie Legaux. The Bearcats can score, too, averaging just under 33 points a game.

TCU is playing excellent defense giving up just 21 points on the season. The Horned Frogs rank in the top five defensively in points allowed, yards and passing yards.

Oklahoma won 20-17 in last year's matchup.

Sooners QB Trevor Knight hasn't been consistent this season. I see him struggling to put up big numbers against this kind of quality defense on the road.

Oklahoma has a top 20 defense giving up 16.5 points per game and ranking 18th in run defense.

A couple of 0-5 teams with nothing to lose here.

UMass has become a huge throwing team with hardly any ground attack. Minutemen quarterback Blake Frohnapfel is improving with each game. The Marshall transfer completed 36-of-61 pass attempts for 589 yards and five touchdowns in a 47-42 loss to Bowling Green last week.

UMass doesn't play much defense particularly having problems stopping the run. The Minutemen are giving up more than 40 points a game. They are an excellent over team with a combination of no defense and a passing offense. The over has cashed in their last four games.

Miami of Ohio is similar to UMass. The Redhawks have become a throwing team, too, while having trouble defensively. They are giving up an average of 31.8 points per game.

There were 78 points scored last year in Duke's 48-30 victory against Miami. The two teams should match that this season.

David Cutcliffe has made Duke an offensive powerhouse. The Blue Devils always could throw, but now they've become balanced averaging 261 yards on the ground and 230 through the air behind quarterback Anthony Boone.

Boone has completed 62.4 percent of his passes for 876 yards while accounting for 10 touchdowns. Miami gives up nearly 25 points per game. The Blue Devils are averaging better than 43 points per contest. Boone not only has three outstanding receiving targets, but also is aided by freshman tailback Shaun Wilson, who is averaging 14.4 yards a carry and has scored four touchdowns.

Duke, though, ranks 91st in run defense and Miami has one of the top runners in the country in Duke Johnson. He's averaging 6.2 yards per carry. The key for the Hurricanes is freshman quarterback Brad Kaaya, who has looked promising completing 62.4 percent for 1,057 yards and 10 touchdowns. The Hurricanes are putting up nearly 400 yards of offense per game.