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College Football Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
08-29-19	UCLA v. Cincinnati UNDER 58		14-24	Win	100	17 h 25 m	Show
This total has been bet down, but there still is value on the Under. The teams met in their opening game last year and the Bearcats won, 26-17. Cincinnati held UCLA to just 306 total yards of offense. The Bearcats led the AAC in scoring defense and run defense last season. Their defense should be tough again this year. I'm not sold either on UCLA sophomore QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson. UCLA has good size on its defensive line. Cincinnati does possess excellent talent at the skill positions. However, the Bearcats have an inexperienced offensive line. Look for both teams to stay on the ground a lot, which eats clock. When the Bruins throw it could be short passes to their running backs.
12-31-18	NC State v. Texas A&M OVER 55.5	Top	13-52	Win	100	21 h 59 m	Show
Both teams rank among the top 26 in scoring. NC State averages 35.6 points. Texas A&M averages 34.7 points. So I find this total short. Neither defense can is strong enough to slow the other offense down. North Carolina State has a stud QB in Ryan Finley. He has a deep group of receivers to throw, including Kelvin Harmon and Jakobi Meyers. Both of whom had more than 1,000 yards receiving this season. The Wolfpack have gone Over in each of their last eight neutral site games. The Over has cashed in each of North Carolina State's last six bowl games. Texas A&M has gone Over in six of its last seven nonconference games. The Aggies have one of the best running backs in college football, Trayveon Williams, and also one of the better tight ends, Jace Sternberger, who had 804 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns.
12-29-18	Notre Dame v. Clemson UNDER 57	Top	3-30	Win	100	21 h 17 m	Show
Clemson's Travis Etienne and Notre Dame's Dexter Williams are two excellent running backs. I expect a lot of carries for these two backs given the high quality of these defenses and the inexperience of each team's quarterback when going against an elite defense. Running the ball eats clock. So given this high of a total, Under is the way to go. Notre Dame ranks 10th in scoring defense allowing just 17.2 points a game. The Irish do not give up big plays, which has been a staple of Clemson's quick-strike offense. Clemson also doesn't give up big plays. The Tigers rank fourth in the country in both fewest yards and fewest points allowed. I don't see Notre Dame QB Ian Book having too much success against the Tigers. The Irish defense, with their strong defensive front, can contain Clemson freshman QB Trevor Lawrence.
12-22-18	Louisiana Tech v. Hawaii UNDER 61.5	Top	31-14	Win	100	33 h 20 m	Show
It's easy to think that there are a lot of points going to be scored in this bowl matchup pitting Louisiana Tech against Hawaii. Louisiana Tech has averaged 45.2 points during its past four bowl games while Hawaii averages 32.1 points a game this season. But the total is set too high based on reputation rather than reality. Louisiana Tech isn't nearly the offensive machine of previous seasons. The Bulldogs rank 101st in scoring at 24.2 points per game. Their offensive decline is made up for by their defensive improvement. The Bulldogs held opponents to 23.8 points a game. The result has been a 7-3-1 mark to the Under for Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs have the pass rush, led by star defensive end Jaylon Ferguson, to bother Cole McDonald. The average combined total in Louisiana Tech's games versus FBS foes came out to fewer than 46 points per game. Hawaii's defense isn't as good as the Bulldogs. But the Rainbow Warriors aren't pitted against a good quarterback. Louisiana Tech QB J'Mar Smith had just a 5-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last eight games while completing less than 57 percent of his throws.
12-15-18	Middle Tennessee State v. Appalachian State OVER 47.5		13-45	Win	100	36 h 42 m	Show
I find this total low given the quality of the offenses and this game being played on a fast track inside the Louisiana Superdome. Yes, Appalachian State has a strong defense. But the Mountaineers also have a strong, balanced offense that averages 36.7 points a game. Their quarterback, Zac Thomas, is a dual threat so Middle Tennessee State has to respect both the pass and run. The Blue Raiders' defense has shown signs of slippage surrendering 27 or more points in three of their last four games. I've always liked Blue Raiders QB Brent Stockstill. He had another big season throwing for 3,214 yards and 28 touchdowns. Middle Tennessee State averaged nearly 30 points a game and close to 400 yards per contest. The Blue Raiders also have a balanced attack.
12-01-18	Northwestern v. Ohio State OVER 61		24-45	Win	100	35 h 3 m	Show
Ohio State covered this total by itself last week putting up 62 points and piling up more than 500 yards. And that was against Michigan, a much stronger defensive team than Northwestern. The Wildcats can contribute their share of points, too, as their offense has picked up. The Wildcats have scored 24 points in each of their last two games. Ohio State's pass defense ranks 78th. It has been a down year for Ohio State's defense given its past history. The Over has cashed four of the past five times the teams have met. Note, too, this game is being played indoors on carpet at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
12-01-18	UAB v. Middle Tennessee State UNDER 45	Top	27-25	Loss	-115	90 h 1 m	Show
Look for defense to rule in this Conference USA title game. UAB ranks in the top nine in fewest yards per game and fewest points per game. Middle Tennessee State has a respectable defense ranking 51st in points allowed per game at 25.2. The teams met this past Saturday and MTS won, 27-3. The Blue Raiders held the Blazers to 89 yards. That doesn't bode well for UAB in the rematch. The Blazers are ground-oriented. They were held to minus 1 yard rushing by MTS. The Blazers are not in good shape. Their quarterback is banged-up and they have multiple offensive line injuries. MTS relies on the pass. The Blazers, though, own the best pass defense in Conference USA. The Blue Raiders aren't going to be helped by the weather with the forecast calling for heavy wind and rain. The Under has cashed in 12 of the Blazers' past 15 road conference games and nine of their last 11 road games. The Under is 9-1-1 in MTS's last 11 home games.
11-24-18	Texas Tech v. Baylor OVER 63		24-35	Loss	-110	46 h 53 m	Show
Both teams are off bad performances. Now they each step down in class against lower-caliber defenses. So I envision a loose, fast-tempo matchup where offense, not defense, rules. Texas Tech has firepower no matter who is behind center. The Red Raiders rank 17th in the nation in scoring at 38.5 points a game. Baylor has already been torched for 58 and 66 points during their last seven games. The Bears have come up with just one takeaway during their past four games. Look for the Bears to put up their share of points, too. Baylor has faced Iowa State and TCU in its last two games. Now they step down as Texas Tech ranks 107th in yards allowed. Charlie Brewer is in line for a big passing game as the Red Raiders have the 127th rated pass defense.
11-23-18	Washington v. Washington State OVER 48.5		28-15	Loss	-102	26 h 39 m	Show
Given the quality of these quarterbacks, it's not hard to imagine each team scoring at least 24 points. Washington senior Jake Browning has 94 career TD throws. He has one of the top senior RB's in the country in Myles Gaskin. They've helped the Huskies scored 27 or more points in seven of their last eight games. Gaskin rushed for 192 yards and scored four touchdowns against the Cougars last season in the Huskies' 41-14 victory. Washington State senior Gardner Minshew II is putting up Heisman Trophy-worthy numbers, including throwing a nation-leading 36 TD passes. The Cougars are coming a 69-28 romp against Arizona where Minshew fired a school-record seven touchdown passes.
11-23-18	Buffalo v. Bowling Green OVER 60	Top	44-14	Loss	-115	35 h 3 m	Show
Buffalo ranks 28th in scoring averaging 34.5 points. The Bulls have scored 31 or more points in five of their seven MAC games and have gone Over in eight of their last 10 games. Bowling Green isn't going to be able to slow down the Bulls. The Falcons are terrible defensively surrendering 39.6 points a game to rank 122nd while rating 107th in yards allowed. The Over has cashed in six of the Falcons' last eight home games. It's a red flag for Buffalo that its defense surrendered 52 points and 646 yards to Ohio in its last game.
11-17-18	Connecticut v. East Carolina OVER 69		21-55	Win	100	30 h 33 m	Show
This might seem like a very high total until your realize Connecticut lost 62-50 to SMU last week. The Huskies could have the worst defense in the nation ranking last or near the bottom in yards and points given up. East Carolina quarterback Holton Ahlers has looked very good the past three games proving to be an effective dual threat. The Huskies will put up their share of points against an East Carolina defense that gives up nearly 35 points a game and ranks 107th in scoring defense. The Pirates have surrendered 35 or more points in five of their last six games.
11-17-18	UL-Monroe v. Arkansas State OVER 66		17-31	Loss	-109	111 h 8 m	Show
Defense? What defense. Not when these two teams meet. The Over has cashed five of the past six times they have met. Arkansas State beat UL-Monroe 67-50 last season. Both offenses are gliding along. Monroe has scored 38 or more in three of its last four games. Arkansas State is averaging 44 points in its last four games and going against the Warhawks' 96th ranked defense both in points allowed and yards allowed.
11-10-18	Troy v. Georgia Southern UNDER 45		35-21	Loss	-102	36 h 33 m	Show
Defense should carry the day especially with a wind factor. Both teams rank in the top 40 in fewest points allowed per game. Troy hasn't permitted more than 21 points during its past five games. It's a red flag that Georgia Southern could manage only one touchdown on offense and 216 yards against UL-Monroe last week. Georgia Southern has held three of its last five opponents to 14 points or fewer. The clock should keep moving with Georgia Southern running on 79 percent of its plays using a triple-option offense. Troy ranks 26th in run defense.
11-03-18	Syracuse v. Wake Forest OVER 75.5		41-24	Loss	-122	25 h 54 m	Show
Syracuse has only failed to score at least 30 points once all season. The Orangemen are averaging more than 43 points a game. Wake Forest's defense has fallen apart giving up 45.3 points per game during its past three matchups. Wake Forest ranks 13th in rushing. This matches up to Syracuse's weak rush defense, which ranks 72nd. The Demon Deacons have hit 56 points twice in their last four games, including 56 at Louisville in their last game. There were 107 points scored in last year's game won by Wake Forest, 64-43. Expect a simila score this time around, too.
11-03-18	Air Force v. Army OVER 42		14-17	Loss	-105	25 h 38 m	Show
Yes there is going to be a lot of running in this game. But this is a low total and the caliber of these team's rush attacks is very strong. Army ranks No. 2 in the rushing while Air Force rates No. 8. This game is on turf not grass, too. The Over has cashed eight of the last 11 times Army has been on turf. Air Force has gone above the total in seven of its last nine games.
11-03-18	South Carolina v. Ole Miss OVER 65	Top	48-44	Win	100	113 h 40 m	Show
Look for Mississippi's high-flying offense to take off again following a 31-16 home loss to Auburn two weeks ago. The Rebels were idle last week. The Rebels had scored a combined 107 points in their previous two games before losing to Auburn. Mississippi has three outstanding skill position players in quarterback Jordan Ta'amu, running back Scottie Phillips and A.J. Brown, who could be the first wide receiver picked in next spring's NFL draft. Only four teams have gained more yards on the season per game than the Rebels. South Carolina has enough offense to stay up there in points with Ole Miss, which ranks 124th in yards given up per game. The Over has cashed in 10 of Mississippi's past 14 SEC games.
10-27-18	Oregon State v. Colorado UNDER 62.5		41-34	Loss	-105	27 h 26 m	Show
Oregon State is down to its third-string quarterback, sophomore Jack Colleto. The Beavers finished with seven points against Cal last week when Colleto replaced injured Conor Blount. Colorado is coming off its two lowest yardage totals of the seasons, scoring just 33 points in its last two games. Laviska Shenault, the Buffaloes' star wide receiver, may not play because of toe injury. There also is a weather element with winds in the 10-15 mph range being forecasted. All of this should result in an Under.
10-27-18	Army v. Eastern Michigan OVER 47		37-22	Win	100	21 h 18 m	Show
Army is averaging 41.6 points in its last three games. The Black Knights are the No. 2 rushing team in the country. Eastern Michigan ranks 111th in run defense. The Black Knights have gone Over in 17 of their last 23 games against foes from the Mid-American Conference. Eastern Michigan has picked up its offense averaging 35 points in its last two games.
10-20-18	North Texas v. UAB UNDER 55	Top	21-29	Win	100	31 h 10 m	Show
North Texas has gone Under in all seven games this season. I'm going to ride that streak. Only once all season have the Mean Green allowed more than 24 points and that was 29 to Louisiana Tech. UAB is a strong Under team, too, going below the total in 13 of its last 16 games. UAB has held opponents to just 14 points in three of its past four victories. The Blazers rank in the top-six in the country both in fewest yards allowed and fewest points given up.
10-20-18	Penn State v. Indiana UNDER 60		33-28	Loss	-115	21 h 41 m	Show
There are some talented skill position players involved in this matchup. But both defenses are decent and weather is going to factor heavily. The forecast in Bloomington this weekend is for winds in the 20-40 miles per hour range. Wind more than anything other weather element is the key for an Under. Penn State's offense went against Michigan State and Ohio State in its last two games and managed to average only 21.5 points against those quality opponents. Indiana's offense has cooled off since entering Big Ten play. The Hooisers have failed to score more than 26 points in any of their last four games.
10-20-18	Akron v. Kent State UNDER 52		24-23	Win	100	30 h 57 m	Show
Two struggling offenses meet in this matchup. Both team's have better defenses than offenses. Akron quarterback Kato Nelson is having a difficult time. The Zips have scored just 36 points during their last three games. They rank 125th in total yards. Kent ranks 115th in scoring. The Golden Flashes have broken the 24-point barrier only twice in seven games. They are averaging 16.6 points in their last five games.
10-13-18	Southern Miss v. North Texas UNDER 55.5		7-30	Win	100	32 h 6 m	Show
Southern Mississippi is much improved defensively yielding fewer than 19 points per game and ranking eighth in total yards. North Texas has cooled off failing to break the 27-point barrier in its last two games, including scoring just 27 points against UTEP in its last game. The Miners have one of the worst defenses in the country. But a big key to the Under here is weather. The forecast is 100 percent chance rain with winds in the 10 to 20 miles per hour range. Heavy rain and wind could force a lot more running plays. Neither team runs the ball well. The Golden Eagles rank 119th in the nation in rushing, while North Texas rates 87th. Southern Mississippi also might be without its second-best wide receiver as Jaylond Adams is questionable with a leg injury.
10-11-18	Texas Tech v. TCU UNDER 62	Top	17-14	Win	100	44 h 31 m	Show
TCU is fortunate not to have a three-game losing streak having nipped Iowa State in its last game on a field goal with 37 seconds left. The problem for the Horned Frogs, who were ranked 14th three weeks ago, is not their defense. That's still first-rate. It's struggling quarterback Shawn Robinson and an offense that managed just 16 points against Texas and 17 versus Iowa State in TCU's past two games. Robinson has a 4-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last four games. He has failed to pass for more than 200 yards in all but one of TCU's five games this season. Darius Anderson, TCU's top running back, isn't helping either averaging 2.3 yards per carry in his last two games on 24 carries. Texas Tech has a middle-of-the-road run defense. The Red Raiders can handle TCU's offense right now especially given Robinson's lackluster performances. I also see TCU keeping Texas Tech's powerful offense in check just like last season when the Horned Frogs beat the Red Raiders in Lubbock, 27-3. TCU has the second-best scoring defense in the Big 12 yielding 20.8 points per game. The Horned Frogs also rank 12th in the country in fewest yards allowed per game.
10-06-18	Buffalo v. Central Michigan UNDER 52.5		34-24	Loss	-112	20 h 9 m	Show
I'm surprised to see a total this high when Central Michigan is involved. The Chippewas rank last in the nation in total yards and second-to-last in scoring averaging 16 points a game. Buffalo has an above average defense ranking among the top 60 in fewest yards and points allowed. Central Michigan's puny attack should be easy for the Bulls to put down. The under has won in 10 of Buffalo's last 13 road games, too. Central Michigan has a far more respectable defense ranking sixth in pass defense and 26th in yards per play. Buffalo has a below average offensive line and running attack. So the Bulls will have to attack Central Michigan's strength. There's a chance of rain in this matchup also, which would be a plus for the under.
09-29-18	UTEP v. UTSA UNDER 46.5		21-30	Loss	-110	106 h 2 m	Show
The oddsmaker opened this total low - but not low enough given how putrid these offenses are and the slow tempo they play at. Texas El Paso ranks last in the nation in scoring 13.5 points per game. Texas San Antonio isn't much better rating 123rd averaging 17.2 points. Both teams are among the bottom-eight in yards gained. The defenses on these teams are much better than their offenses. These are two of the worst teams in Conference USA so a conservative game plan should be in place with a chance for a rare win. The Roadrunners have gone Under in their last seven Conference USA games. The Under also has cashed in four of the last five meetings.
09-29-18	Nevada v. Air Force OVER 64		28-25	Loss	-107	26 h 27 m	Show
This is a large total, but not large enough for the game to go Under. Air Force beat Nevada, 45-42, last season. I can see a combined 80 plus points again in this season's matchup. The Wolf Pack's passing attack can do damage against an Air Force secondary giving up more than 290 yards through the air. Sparked by quarterback Ty Gangi, the Wolf Pack are averaging 40.8 points per game. Air Force lacks the pass rushers to slow down Gangi. Air Force, though, is going to be able to run on Nevada. The Falcons rank sixth in the nation in rushing. The Wolf Pack are used to going against throwing teams. The over has cashed in 25 of Air Force's last 37 games.
09-29-18	South Alabama v. Appalachian State OVER 56		7-52	Win	100	31 h 60 m	Show
South Alabama has one of the worst defenses in the nation surrendering 42 points and 498 yards per game. The Jaguars offense, though, is coming on averaging 38 points in their last two games versus Texas State and Memphis. Appalachian State is sure to take advantage of South Alabama's shortcomings. The Mountaineers are the sixth-highest scoring team in the country at 51.7 points a game. Mountaineers quarterback Zac Thomas has a mind-boggling 195.2 quarterback rating. I would not be surprisedi in the least if Appalachian State went Over this total by itself.
09-28-18	UCLA v. Colorado UNDER 59	Top	16-38	Win	100	19 h 47 m	Show
To say that UCLA's offense has been a massive disappointment is still making an understatement. The Bruins rank 121st in the country in scoring at 17.3 points a game. They are 119th in yards at 319.7. Sure it was going to take a while for Chip Kelly to install his offense and get it going. But this is borderline ridiculous. There is a quarterback controversy, but neither Wilton Speight nor freshman Dorian Thompson-Robinson have been very good for UCLA. Turnovers, bad play-calling and horrible offensive line play have all factored, too. Things don't figure to pick up for the Bruins in this tough road setting in high altitude. Colorado leads the Pac-12 in sacks and tackles for loss per game. Buffaloes linebacker Nate Landman is averaging more than 11 tackles per game and has two interceptions in three games. The Buffaloes are 3-0, but have played weak competition. I do believe Colorado quarterback Steven Montez is underrated, but his offensive line isn't that good and UCLA's defense will get turned around quicker than its offense. The Bruins are young, too, on defense, but have tremendous athletes and high level recruits manning the linebacker and secondary positions.
09-22-18	Rice v. Southern Miss OVER 53		22-40	Win	100	43 h 10 m	Show
The last eight games in this series have gone Over. Look for that trend to continue. There were 77 points scored last season in Southern Mississippi's 43-34 road win. Kwadra Griggs is back from a two-game suspension giving Southern Mississippi a pair of quarterbacks to torment a bad Rice defense as he joins Jack Abraham, who has moved the ball well but been hurt by turnovers. The Golden Eagles are averaging 37.5 points per game. They have experienced depth at wide receiver and facing a Rice defense that is among the bottom-20 in yards allowed and points surrendered at 38.7 per game. Rice has yielded an average of 50.6 points in its last three games against Southern Mississippi. Southern Mississippi has strong defensive numbers. But that's going against Jackson State and Louisiana Monroe. Rice has skill position talent, including quarterback Shawn Stankavage and running back Emmanuel Esukpa, who has topped 100 yards rushing twice in three games this season while averaging 5.4 yards a carry.
09-15-18	Arizona State v. San Diego State UNDER 49.5		21-28	Win	100	38 h 37 m	Show
Arizona State is giving up 10 points per game and just held Michigan State to 13 points at home. The Sun Devils rank No. 1 in run defense and catch a break in that San Diego State will be without senior starting quarterback, Christian Chapman. He holds the most wins in Aztecs' history. Chapman suffered a knee injury last week and won't play. ASU's defensive coordinator, Danny Gonzales, held that position last season for San Diego State. So he'll hold a lot of inside information about the Aztecs. San Diego State is strong defensively, too. This is no surprise since the Aztecs are coached by Rocky Long. San Diego State ranked 21st in scoring defense last year. The Aztecs have held their past three home opponents to an average of 15.6 points a game. The Under has cashed in 71 percent of the Aztecs' last 29 home games.
09-15-18	UMass v. Florida International OVER 62		24-63	Win	100	22 h 1 m	Show
Flordia International rolled past UMass, 63-45, in the final regular season game last year. Now the teams are back at it and there will be plenty of scoring again. Perhaps not 108 points like last year, but enough to go above this total. UMass is bombs away. FIU can't stop the pass. So the Minutemen will pile up points. They play up-tempo, which is a huge plus for the Over. But the Golden Panthers also easily will score because they will control the line of scrimmage and have the skill position talent to light up a weak UMass defense.
09-15-18	UTSA v. Kansas State UNDER 47		17-41	Loss	-113	117 h 15 m	Show
Through two games, Texas San Antonio statistically ranks as one of the worst offensive teams in the nation. The Roadrunners played Baylor and Arizona State. They are averaging 13.5 points and rank among the bottom three in total yards and rushing yards. The Under has cashed in seven of the Roadrunners' last nine games. Kansas State is a running team that plays at a very slow pace. The Wildcats are dropping way down in class going from Mississippi State to this opponent. Kansas State has a much bigger opponent, West Virginia, on deck. So the Wildcats are not going to show anything fancy. This will be a grind out, type of win perfect for an Under play.
09-15-18	Georgia Tech v. Pittsburgh OVER 52	Top	19-24	Loss	-115	51 h 15 m	Show
Look for offenses to rule this game. Pittsburgh is not going to be able to stop Georgia Tech's running attack. The Yellow Jackets have rushed for more than 400 yards in each of their two games, including piling up 602 total yards last week against South Florida in a 49-38 road loss. Georgia Tech quarterback TaQuon Marshall should be fine after missing some time in that game with a toe injury. Pittsburgh surrendered 44 points in the last 31 minutes of its last game, a 51-6 loss to Penn State. The Panthers' passing attack and quarterback Kenny Pickett should be much sharper this week. Their ground attack did go for 245 yards versus the Nittany Lions. Georgia Tech allowed South Florida quarterback Blake Barnett to account for 293 yards and four touchdowns.
09-08-18	Cincinnati v. Miami-OH UNDER 51		21-0	Win	100	59 h 54 m	Show
Intensity should be up for this in-state rivalry matchup. The Under has cashed in four of the last five head-to-head meetings. There were just 38 points scored last season when Cincinnati won, 21-17. Defense should carry the day again this time around. Miami has an inexperienced offensive line and a predictable offense. Cincinnati limited UCLA to 306 total yards in upsetting the Bruins, 26-17, last week. Cortez Broughton had 3 1/2 sacks for Cincinnati in that game. He and fellow defensive tackle Marquise Copeland should allow the Bearcats to control the line of scrimmage. UCLA had a number of players suspended in that game and doesn't have a strong defense. Yet the Bruins held Cincinnati to 285 yards. The Bearcats may be without their leading rusher from last season, Gerrid Doaks, for another week. He's dealing with a groin injury. The Bearcats still have an usettled quarterback situation. Weather is another factor on liking the Under. The forecast is for winds around 15 mph and a strong possibility of rain.
09-07-18	TCU v. SMU OVER 58.5	Top	42-12	Loss	-110	21 h 1 m	Show
This total has come down enough where I'm going to get involved strongly believing that there are going to be a lot of points scored here. There is around a 40 percent chance of rain, but very slight wind. I'll take that in order to get a total this low on this matchup. There were 92 points scored in last year's matchup won by TCU, 56-36. The Horned Frogs could put up 60 by themselves. SMU gave up 36 points through three quarters to North Texas in its opener, losing 46-23. TCU shouldn't have any problems against this defense with a balanced attack and quarterback Shawn Robinson looking good last week in a 55-7 opening win versus Southern. Robinson threw for three scores completing 17 of 24 passes and also ran for two more. SMU surrendered 444 passing yards to North Texas State. That doesn't bode well for the Mustangs. I'm not a fan of SMU coach Sonny Dykes. He is offensive-minded, though, and the Mustangs will be throwing a lot as they aren't going to be able to run the ball against TCU. SMU quarterback Ben Hicks can put up points with his passing. Hicks has thrown the most touchdowns in SMU history. He threw for 3,569 yards and 33 touchdowns last season. SMU constantly is going to be attacking through the air, something I want an underdog to be doing when I'm going Over a total. I also like that the game is being played on a fast track at Gerald Ford Stadium, which uses FieldTurf.
09-01-18	Old Dominion v. Liberty OVER 58		10-52	Win	100	42 h 28 m	Show
I see both these teams scoring a lot of points based on their offensive strengths, which fit the opponent's defensive weakness. Old Dominion should pile up the rushing yards with Jeremy Cox running behind an experienced and talented offensive line. Liberty has an outstanding passing game led by quarterback Stephen Calvert. The Flames have nearly all of their top receivers back, too. Old Dominion has a vulnerable defensive backfield.
08-31-18	Western Kentucky v. Wisconsin OVER 52.5		3-34	Loss	-105	48 h 47 m	Show
Wisconsin should come close to covering this total by itself. The Badgers have maybe the top runner in the country, Jonathan Taylor, a decent quarterback in Alex Hornibrook and all five returning starters on their offensive line. Western Kentucky surrendered 30 or more points during each of its last six regular season games last year. The Badgers should have no problem wearing this defense down. The Hilltopppers are going with a more up-tempo offense with head coach Mike Sanford calling the plays. Sanford's strength is running an offense. Western Kentucky's ground attack should be much improved, too, with a deep set of runners and athletic fifth-year senior Drew Eckels at quarterback.
08-30-18	New Mexico State v. Minnesota UNDER 46.5		10-48	Loss	-110	46 h 36 m	Show
New Mexico State could manage only 135 yards - 93 of which came during a final touchdown drive in garbage time - and seven points in losing 29-7 at home to Wyoming this past Saturday. Now the Aggies go on the road to face Minnesota, a Big Ten team that ranked 36th in scoring defense last year giving up 22.8 points per game. I don't see the Aggies having nearly enough time to straighten out their offensive line woes especially while going against a better defense. Minnesota, though, doesn't figure to put up many points either. The Gophers are going with a true freshman at quarterback, Zack Annexstad. So don't expect the Gophers to come out throwing. They have a solid running back in senior Rodney Smith. He should get lots of carries, which will eat clock. New Mexico State's defense was much improved last season under second-year defensive coordinator Frank Spaziani. The Aggies should be able to hold their own against Minnesota's bland offense. Weather could play a factor, too. The forecast is for wind in the 10 mph range with a chance of thunderstorms.
08-25-18	Hawaii v. Colorado State UNDER 58	Top	43-34	Loss	-107	20 h 14 m	Show
Opening college football games, especially in this Week 0 before the first full week kicks off next weekend, can be tricky. This matchup, though, projects to be lower-scoring that the oddsmaker anticipates. Hawaii averaged just 17.6 points in its last five road games. The Under has cashed in its last six Mountain West Conference games. The Rainbow Warriors are going with a run-and-shoot type of offense featuring lots of quick-hitting short passes. This isn't the best offense to play an Under on. However, Hawaii has a lot of inexperience. The Warriors are going to go through growing pains with this offense. They aren't to be in sync this early in the season. Hawaii is breaking in a new quarterback after Dru Brown transferred to Oklahoma State. The Warriors also lost Dylan Collie to BYU. Collie led Hawaii in receiving last year. The Rainbow Warriors' attack may not have its full concentration either because of the damage Hurricane Lane is causing in Hawaii. The Rainbow Warriors also have to deal with a four-hour time difference and higher elevation. Note, too, the game is being played on a grass field, which is slower than a turf field. Colorado State has good linebackers and its secondary has some key returners. Where the Rams took a massive hit was in their offense. Gone are three of their best players in school history - quarterback Nick Stevens, receiver Michael Gallup and running back Dalyn Dawkins. Colorado State lost four of its top five wide receivers and is breaking in three new offensive line starters. So I envision both offenses being off-kilter. If Colorado State were to grab a big lead, I could see the Rams calling off the dogs and playing very conservatively knowing they meet in-state rival Colorado on the road next Friday.
01-08-18	Alabama v. Georgia UNDER 45.5		26-23	Loss	-115	132 h 56 m	Show
Alabama is the best defensive team in the country. The Crimson Tide went into their playoff bowl game against Clemson ranked No. 1 in scoring defense, total defense and run defense. They then proceeded to hold the Tigers to six points. Clemson entered that game averaging 33.3 points a game. Alabama has held nine of its 13 opponents to 10 or fewer points. Georgia finished the regular season ranked fifth in scoring defense and sixth in total yards. The Bulldogs gave up 14 points or fewer to 10 of their 13 regular season opponents. But a wild 54-48 double overtime game against Oklahoma last week may have influenced the oddsmaker to open this total too high. The Bulldogs are stepping way up in defensive class taking on Alabama instead of Oklahoma. Georgia coach Kirby Smart was Nick Saban's defensive coordinator before taking over as the Bulldogs coach. He knows the Tide and should have a solid defensive game plan in place.
12-30-17	Wisconsin v. Miami-FL UNDER 45	Top	34-24	Loss	-110	26 h 32 m	Show
I like both of these defenses very much. But it goes farther than that. The Badgers are a running team that plays at a very slow tempo. The Badgers aren't going to get caught up in any type of track meet or passing game. Not with Alex Hornibrook at quarterback. Wisconsin learned its lesson in the Big Ten title game loss to Ohio State when its offensive line got whipped at the line of scrimmage. Miami has an excellent defensive line and is highly opportunistic. The Hurricanes have forced 22 turnovers during their last seven games. Hornibrook has been picked off 15 times this season. The Badgers will stay on the ground even if they fall behind. How good is Wisconsin's defense? It ranked No. 1 in fewest yards per game and in run defense. The Badgers also surrendered the third-fewest points per game in the nation just 13.2. Miami is going to struggle to move the ball. Hurricanes quarterback Malik Rosier isn't a high percentage passer completing less than 55 percent of his throws. The Hurricanes averaged just 8.5 points in their last two games against Pittsburgh and Clemson.
12-21-17	Temple v. Florida International OVER 57		28-3	Loss	-115	28 h 2 m	Show
You can toss the season statistics out when handicapping this matchup. Both offenses for Temple and Florida International are better than their season numbers. Both offenses have gotten hot down the stretch and I see that continuing in this Gasparilla Bowl to be played in sunny, 75-degree weather in St. Petersburg, Fla. Temple is coming off a 43-point performance against Tulsa. The Owls' offense picked up after a quarterback switch to Frank Nutile. If you discount their game against Central Florida, the Owls averaged 34.8 points in their last five games once Nutile became the established quarterback. Florida International closed out its season averaging 52 points during its final two regular season games in victories against Western Kentucky and Massachusetts. The Panthers scored 30 or more points in four of their last six games. They also led the nation in scoring percentage inside the red zone going 39 for 40. Temple has one of the worst red-zone defenses in the country.
12-16-17	Middle Tennessee State v. Arkansas State OVER 61.5	Top	35-30	Win	100	279 h 7 m	Show
The oddsmaker thought he set a high enough total on this game. He didn't. Middle Tennessee State's overall offensive statistics are skewed because its star quarterback, Brent Stockstill, missed around half the season. Stockstill returned four games ago and Middle Tennessee State averaged 36 points in those games. Arkansas State has one of the most potent offenses in the country ranking 11th in total yards at nearly 500 a game, sixth in passing yards and 15th in points averaging 38.5 per game. Neither team is strong defensively against the pass. So it's easy to forsee a shootout between Stockstill and Justice Hansen. The Red Wolves rank 91st in pass defense. Another plus for the Over is that each team plays at a fast tempo.
12-01-17	Stanford v. USC UNDER 59	Top	28-31	Push	0	58 h 28 m	Show
USC rushed for 302 yards in beating Stanford, 42-24, back in early September. That's the most yards Stanford has allowed since David Shaw became its coach in 2011. I don't see that happening again in this rematch, which will decide the Pac-12 championship. Stanford hasn't allowed more than 24 points during its last eight games - seven games against Pac-12 opponents in a wide open throwing conference and powerful Notre Dame. During this span, the Cardinal are giving up an average of 15.6 points a game. The Under has won in seven of these last eight Stanford games. Stanford has the pass rushers, particularly senior Harrison Phillips, to bother Sam Darnold and also will be very aware of the run knowing how USC dominated on the ground in the first meeting. Phillips is No. 1 in the country in tackles for losses with 16 1/2. Note, too, that the first meeting was played at USC. This one is at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, which is known for having a very loose and slippery grass field. I see the Trojans doing well on defense also. The Cardinal is now going with redshirt freshman quarterback K.J. Costello. He's averaging 130 yards passing a game. The Cardinal relies heavily on running back Bryce Love, who isn't 100 percent because of an ankle injury. Stanford is very methodical on offense, which runs clock.
11-25-17	Old Dominion v. Middle Tennessee State OVER 48.5		10-41	Win	100	12 h 12 m	Show
Sparked by star running back Ray Lawry, Old Dominion has taken its offense up a notch scoring a combined 61 points during its last two games. Lawry has rushed for 278 yards and scored three touchdowns during this span. Middle Tennessee State can't just key on Lawry either because the Monarchs have a balanced attack. The Blue Raiders are going to get their share of points with Brent Stockstill back at quarterback. He's facing an Old Dominion defense that yields nearly 31 points a game.
11-18-17	Syracuse v. Louisville UNDER 73		10-56	Win	100	40 h 12 m	Show
Syracuse has a good offense - and its high totals like this reflect that. The Orange, though, have gone Under in 11 of their last 13 ACC games. Syracuse QB Eric Dungey missed the last game with a leg injury. So his status and condition could be a factor that favor the Under. Louisville is playing better defense. The Cardinals held Virginia to 21 points, 277 yards and had four sacks last week. Another key factor here is weather. Heavy winds are forecast along with around a 70 percent chance of rain. That could mean more running plays. Syracuse isn't a great running team and Louisville's defense is better versus the run.
11-18-17	South Alabama v. Georgia Southern UNDER 47		0-52	Loss	-110	119 h 47 m	Show
South Alabama has gone Under in eight of its last nine games. It's not a shock. The Jaguars have one of the top defenses in the Sun Belt Conference, but only average 22.1 points a game, which ranks 107th in the nation. Georgia Southern is ground-oriented. South Alabama has a top-50 rush defense. Both teams are slow-paced. There were just a combined 33 points scored in last year's game.
11-18-17	Arizona State v. Oregon State OVER 59		40-24	Win	100	35 h 43 m	Show
Arizona State is peaking offensively averaing 40.5 points and rushing for 675 yards during its last two games. Oregon State ranks among the bottom four in the country defensively allowing more than 40 points per game. Arizona State has the second-best red zone scoring percentage in the country. The Sun Devils can almost cover this total alone. But the Beavers should be able to pitch in with some points. They've scored 28 and 23 points during their past two games and have improved their ground attack. Arizona State is weak versus the run.
11-18-17	Minnesota v. Northwestern UNDER 46		0-39	Win	100	102 h 2 m	Show
Both of these teams are in the bottom 50th in scoring. Minnesota ranks 111th in total yards. So a low scoring game is expected with the defenses dominating. But making it even more of a defensive battle are the expected weather conditions. It's going to be cold and the forecast is calling for winds gusting from 22-to-30.
11-17-17	Middle Tennessee State v. Western Kentucky UNDER 59	Top	38-41	Loss	-115	18 h 26 m	Show
The total has been steamed up. I can understand why because both teams have good quarterbacks and a reputation for high scoring games. But I believe the market isn't paying enough attention to each team's defense. Brent Stockstill is the leading passer in Middle Tennessee State history. He recently returned from a collarbone injury and is not having a big season completing barely 55 percent of his passes. His top wide receiver, Richie James, remains out. Western Kentucky ranks No. 22 in pass defense. Only three teams in the nation have surrendered fewer 20-yard plus passes than the Hilltoppers. DeAndre Farris is one of the top cornerbacks in Conference USA. Mike White is a very good quarterback for Western Kentucky. But the Hilltoppers are one-dimensional averaging just 69.4 yards rushing per game, last in the country. Not once has a Hilltopper runner gained at least 20 yards on a run. Middle Tennessee State ranks 19th in holding opponents to 3.5 yards per rush. A key for Western Kentucky is protecting White. The Hilltoppers rank ninth-worst in the nation in sacks giving up 3.2 per game. They've permitted nine sacks during their last two games. Middle Tennessee State is a blitzing team with a sharp defensive coordinator in Scott Shafer, former head coach at Syracuse. The Blue Raiders have held foes to only 194 yards passing per game.
11-11-17	Notre Dame v. Miami-FL UNDER 59.5		8-41	Win	100	28 h 20 m	Show
It's easy to focus on these team's skill position stars. I choose, though, to put more credence on the defenses. They are both outstanding. Notre Dame ranks 17th in scoring defense giving up 18.4 points a game. They've held all but one of their nine opponents to 20 points or less. The Irish have a very strong run defense. Notre Dame, however, ranks 90th in pass defense. I'm not a fan of Miami QB Malik Rosier, though. He's completed less than 50 percent of his throws in his past two games and been picked off four times. Notre Dame has forced at least one turnover in each of its games. The Hurricanes are holding opponents to only 17.6 points a game, which is 12th-best in the nation. Only one of their last six foes have scored more than 20 points. The Hurricanes held Virgina Tech to 10 points last week. The opportunistic Hurricanes defense has the speed and muscle to slow down Notre Dame's ground attack. Miami has forced 20 turnovers and ranks fourth in the country in takeaways/giveaways.
11-11-17	Alabama v. Mississippi State UNDER 51	Top	31-24	Loss	-110	32 h 35 m	Show
Alabama gives up 9.8 points per game and 243.8 yards a game. That ranks first and second, respectively, in the nation. Those are strong indicators that the Crimson Tide has the best defense in the country. Mississippi State ranks seventh in the nation in total defense giving up just 259.3 yards a game. Both teams stay on the ground a lot - above 62 percent - and play at a slow tempo. These are big pluses for the Under. The Under has cashed the past eight times the teams have played in Mississippi.
11-11-17	Kansas v. Texas UNDER 56		27-42	Loss	-110	26 h 8 m	Show
Rather than trying to make Kansas work on the road, or lay a monster number with offensive-challenged Texas, the way to go in this matchup is Under the total. Neither first-string quarterback may start due to injuries. I've really liked Texas' defense ever since Week 2. Since that time, the Longhorns have yielded an average of only 17.6 points a game. They have the sixth-best third-down defense in the nation. Kansas has managed only two touchdowns in its last four games. Texas, though, isn't exactly a powerhouse on offense. If you discount the 38 points the Longhorns scored against Baylor, they would be averaging 13.6 points in their last three games.
11-11-17	Georgia State v. Texas State UNDER 47		33-30	Loss	-110	116 h 16 m	Show
Usually you think offense when it comes to the Sun Belt Conference. Not with these two teams, though. Georgia State ranks 116th in scoring at 20.5 points a game. Texas State is even worse at 17.3 points per game. Expect defense to rule here as it's not a fluke the Under has cashed 20 of the last 26 times Georgia State has played, including eight of the past 10 road games. The Panthers have a top-50 defense. They rank in the top three in the conference in scoring defense, total defense and rush defense. Texas State also has a very strong run defense. The under has cashed in 11 of the Bobcats' last 15 games.
11-08-17	Toledo v. Ohio OVER 62.5	Top	10-38	Loss	-102	5 h 58 m	Show
Defense is going to take a backseat in this matchup. The Over has cashed in eight of Ohio's last 10 games. It's no surprise considering the Bobcats average 41.2 points a game. They've scored 45 or more points in their last three games. Toledo featurs Logan Woodside, probably the best quarterback in the MAC. The Rockets average 39 points a game and are sixth in the nation in yards per game at 519.7. This is going to be a back-and-forth scoring game with plenty of fireworks.
11-07-17	Bowling Green v. Buffalo OVER 55	Top	28-38	Win	100	29 h 52 m	Show
Bowling Green is giving up 35.4 points a game. Buffalo can take advantage with Tyree Jackson throwing to Anthony Johnson, who leads the MAC with 888 receiving yards. Jackson is coming off an impressive game where he had 34 completions for 313 yards. The Falcons should contribute their share of points against a Buffalo defense that ranks 115th in run defense and has several injuries. Both teams play at a fast pace, too, which is important when going Over. Update: The total took off shortly after this play was released. I still like it to go Over, but much of the value is gone making it a smaller unit play.
11-04-17	Oregon v. Washington OVER 52.5		3-38	Loss	-120	31 h 37 m	Show
These teams combined for 91 points in last season's game, which Washington won, 70-21. Now I doubt the Huskies put up 70 points again, but I do see these teams going above this total. Washington's defense is tough especially at home. But I like the way Oregon ran the ball last week. The Ducks average 35.6 points per game. The Huskies are a top-20 scoring team, averaging nearly 40 points a game. They have scored at least 37 points in six of their eight games and 30 or more in all but one of their games.
11-04-17	Virginia Tech v. Miami-FL UNDER 50	Top	10-28	Win	100	61 h 3 m	Show
It's simple to understand why Miami has gone under in its last five games and why Virginia Tech has gone under in four of its past five games. Both teams have tremendous defenses. Virginia Tech has held its last three foes - Boston College, North Carolina and Duke - to a combined 20 points The Hokies are the second-stingiest defense in the country holding opponents to 11.5 points a game. The Hokies rate in the top six in in fewest first downs allowed and third-down conversations. Miami is 119th out of 130 schools in third down conversions. The Hurricanes are no slouch defensively either. with a top-notch secondary and ranking 18th in the country in yards per play. I see both offenses struggling. Virginia Tech has a mediocre ground attack. None of the Hokies' running backs has had a 100-yard rushing game this season. Freshman QB Josh Jackson has played well, but this will be the best secondary he's faced all season. Only two teams have held quarterbacks to a lower passer rating than the Hurricanes. Miami is coming off a terrible offensive performance against North Carolina. The Hurricanes were lucky to win, 24-19. Quarterback Malik Rosier injured his shoulder in that game, but is expected to start. Virginia Tech has held opposing quarterbacks to the seventh-lowest passer rating. Miami hasn't scored more than 27 points in any of its last four games.The under has cashed six of the last seven times Miami has hosted Virginia Tech. The Hurricanes rushed for a season-low 59 yards against North Carolina. Virginia Tech has the top run defense in the ACC. The under has been a proven money-maker in Virginia Tech conference and road games. The under has cashed 21 of the last 30 times in Virginia Tech's conference games and is 8-3 in the Hokies' past 11 away contests. There's also a chance of rain for this matchup.
11-04-17	UTSA v. Florida International UNDER 49.5		7-14	Win	100	125 h 43 m	Show
Don't be fooled by Florida International putting up 41 points against Marshall last Saturday. The Golden Panthers are not a good offensive team. Even with that showing they still on average 22 points and rank 81st in yards. San Antonio is a defensive minded team and its offense plays at a slow pace. The Roadrunners are giving up just 17.4 points per game. The under has cashed in seven of the Roadrunners last 10 games.
10-28-17	UTSA v. UTEP UNDER 48	Top	31-14	Win	100	35 h 20 m	Show
What do you get with three ineffective quarterbacks rotating and no ground game? You get Texas El-Paso's offense, which is the second-worst in the country. The Miners have not broken the 17-point barrier in six of their seven games. The under has cashed 18 of the last 25 times in the Miners' conference games. Don't expect a sudden scoring outburst from UTEP against Texas San Antonio, which ranks 19th in scoring defense giving up 18 points a game. The Roadrunners just held Rice to seven points last Saturday. UTEP has been playing better defense since Mike Price replaced Sean Kugler as coach. The Miners have ranked in the top 50 defensively during their last couple of games and have had an extra week of preparation to work on more defensive schemes having had a bye last week.
10-28-17	Duke v. Virginia Tech UNDER 49		3-24	Win	100	34 h 3 m	Show
Think defense here and not just because the Under has cashed in Duke's last six games. Both teams have excellent defenses and Duke is struggling to score averaging 13.5 points in its last four games. Blue Devils quarterback Daniel Jones ranks 13th among the 14 qualified ACC quarterbacks in passing efficiency. Virginia Tech ranks No. 2 in the nation in third-down defense and gives up only 12.7 points per game, which ranks fifth in the nation. Duke, though, is strong on defense. The Blue Devils are No. 1 in the ACC in interceptions and second in sacks. Weather could impact scoring, too, with rain expected.
10-28-17	NC State v. Notre Dame UNDER 58		14-35	Win	100	11 h 58 m	Show
I see defense not offense ruling the day here in this matchup. Notre Dame is holding foes to 16.4 points a game, which is 12th-best in the country. North Carolina State allows less than 23 points a game. The Wolfpack are tremendous against the run and can control the line of scrimmage against Notre Dame's offensive line, which hasn't gone against this caliber of foe, nor North Carolina State's unusual 4-2-5 defensive alignment. The Irish also have to deal with Bradley Chubb, one of the best defensive players in the nation. Chubb has 14 tackles for losses and 6 1/2 sacks. He's a highly disruptive force.
10-28-17	Appalachian State v. UMass OVER 55		27-30	Win	100	30 h 21 m	Show
Both offenses have been looking good. Appalachian State has a balanced attack with dual threat senior Taylor Lamb at quarterback. The Mountaineers' offensive line is coming off probably their best game of the season. They should dominante the Minutemen in the trenaches. UMass just had to prepare for Georgia Southern's triple option offense last week. Now they have to switch back in their defensive preparation. That can be a problem. Appalachian State has scored 105 points in its last three games. UMass has scored 105 points in its last two games. It's important to note the Minutemen have been playing at a brisk pace, too.
10-21-17	Auburn v. Arkansas OVER 52.5		52-20	Win	100	37 h 41 m	Show
Auburn covered this total by itself last season beating Arkansas, 56-3. The Tigers could do it again this season. The Razorbacks have given up at least 40 points in each of their first three SEC games. Auburn running back Kerryon Johnson is a big-time back with 476 yards rushing and seven TD's during his last three games. Johnson leads the nation in rushing touchdowns with 13.
10-21-17	North Texas v. Florida Atlantic OVER 63.5		31-69	Win	100	117 h 56 m	Show
North Texas is averaging 39.3 points in its last three games. Florida Atlantic is averaging more than 42 points during its last four games. Both teams have their offenses fully in gear and are multi-dimensional. The total opened too low here. The over has cashed in five of Florida Atlantic's last six Conference USA games.
10-21-17	Kentucky v. Mississippi State OVER 54		7-45	Loss	-110	116 h 40 m	Show
We know Mississippi State can run the ball ranking 14th in the country at 261.7 yards per game on the ground. The Bulldogs were impressive in their last game, a 35-10 win against BYU. The Bulldogs put up 546 yards on the Cougars. Kentucky has been a surprise in the SEC. The Wildcats also are off an impressive offensive display putting up 40 points on Missouri. That was a season-high for the Wildcats. I see both team's offenses staying strong in this matchup.
10-21-17	Buffalo v. Miami-OH UNDER 45	Top	14-24	Win	100	33 h 35 m	Show
I'm expecting a lot of running, conservative coaching and playing for field position in this matchup. Neither team has their starting quarterback. Buffalo is down to its third-string QB. And it's not like these were a couple of powerhouse, explosive offenses anyway. Buffalo ranks 70th in scoring. Miami ranks 100th in scoring. Both defenses rank in the top 60 in fewest points allowed. Buffalo trailed Northern Illinois, 14-13, at halftime last week. Final score: 14-13. There was no scoring during the second half. The Bulls rushed for just 39 yards on 27 carries. Miami of Ohio scored only 14 points against Kent State last week, none during the fourth quarter, in a 17-14 loss. Kent State ranks 92nd in scoring defense even counting that victory.
10-21-17	Maryland v. Wisconsin OVER 50		13-38	Win	100	29 h 8 m	Show
Wisconsin was sloppy against Purdue last week. The Badgers won't be against a worn down Maryland defense that has surrendered a combined 99 points to Northwestern and Ohio State during the last two weeks. This is the Terps' third road game in four weeks. The Terps rank 115th in scoring defense. They've allowed 37 or more points in four of their six games. Maryland is going to fall prey to Jonathan Taylor, the latest in a long line of outstanding Wisconsin running backs. Taylor is averaging 7.7 yards per carry and has 986 yards rushing on the season. The Badgers are healthy now at guard. Maryland is a heavy underdog here. But the Terps can come up with their share of points. They are down to third-string quarterback Max Bortenschiager. He has weapons, though, with DJ Moore, who leads the Big Ten in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. Moore and Ty Johnson are the only teammates in the country to be ranked in the top 25 in all-purpose yards per game.
10-14-17	Boise State v. San Diego State OVER 46		31-14	Loss	-110	32 h 25 m	Show
This isn't too high of a total for these two teams to go Over considering their respective skill position talent. Boise State has a balanced attack, while San Diego State boasts one of the best running backs in the country, Rashaad Penny. He's rushed for triple digits in his last six games. The Aztecs also have been getting solid production from quarterback Christian Chapman. The over has cashed 14 of the last 20 times Boise State has played on the road.
10-14-17	Nevada v. Colorado State OVER 64		42-44	Win	100	79 h 49 m	Show
Nevada finally got its offense going last week beating Hawaii, 35-21. The Wolf Pack could do some damage against an average Colorado State pass defense that has allowed opponents to complete 61 percent of their throws. The Rams also are vulnerable on special teams having given up two return touchdowns. But what's going to put this game Over the total is Colorado State's offense. The Rams average 506.2 yards a game, which is best in the Mountain West and 14th in the nation. The Rams average more than 33 points a game. Quarterback Nick Stevens has thrown for 1,871 yards, sixth-best in the country. He has a tremendous receiver in Michael Gallup. Nevada isn't going to be able to stop this combination. I expect Nevada to fall behind early and thus play at a fast tempo, which is their style. Given Colorado State's outstanding offense and a fast tempo, look for this game to go Over.
10-14-17	Ohio State v. Nebraska UNDER 58.5		56-14	Loss	-110	30 h 43 m	Show
Ohio State has a top-10 defense surrendering fewer than 16 points a game. I don't see Tanner Lee and the Nebraska offense doing much against the Buckeyes. Nebraska's defense had been playing better before getting blown out by Wisconsin last week. Prior to that game, the Cornhuskers had held held Northern Illinois, Rutgers and Illinois to a combined 44 points. Another big key here is there is a strong wind factor with gusts around 20 mph. This could mean a lot of extra running.
10-14-17	New Mexico State v. Georgia Southern OVER 57.5		35-27	Win	100	28 h 57 m	Show
Georgia Southern has allowed 95 points in its last two games against Indiana and Arkansas State. New Mexico State ranks in the top 30 in yardage and has the offense and quarterback in Tyler Rogers to put up a lot of points against such a weak defense. The Aggies have trouble stopping the run, though, ranking 99th in run defense. Georgia Southern can run the ball with its triple option offense.
10-14-17	Baylor v. Oklahoma State UNDER 68.5		16-59	Loss	-110	13 h 50 m	Show
Baylor is way down this season ranking 103rd in rushing. The combination of this and a large total and extreme weather conditions put me on the Under. There is expected to be heavy winds about to 30 mph. This obviously is going to affect the passing game of both teams forcing more running plays.
10-07-17	Kansas State v. Texas UNDER 49.5	Top	34-40	Loss	-116	41 h 15 m	Show
A makeshift offensive line and resurgent defense have made Texas a strong under team. The under has cashed in the Longhorns' last three games. Texas is giving up only 11.3 points and less than 300 yards during its last three games, the last two having been against Iowa State and USC. The Longhorns, though, are struggling offensively because they are without their two starting tackles, one of which is All-American Connor Williams. The Longhorns also are without Andrew Beck, their best blocking tight end. Texas quarterback Shane Buechele is back in action, but he's less than 100 percent due to a sprained ankle. Kansas State ranks 15th in fewest points allowed at 15 per game. The Wildcats also are 21st in total defense. The last four meetings in this series have gone under, including the one last year in which Kansas State won, 24-21.
10-07-17	Army v. Rice OVER 47		49-12	Win	100	49 h 28 m	Show
Army ranks No. 3 in the country in rushing, but this is that rare game where the Black Knights can also move the ball by passing. Yes, Rice's defense is that bad. The Owls are giving up nearly 34 points a game and more than 300 yards per contest. Rice should look better on offense as Army is not a good road team. The Black Knights are 85th in run defense.
10-07-17	Air Force v. Navy UNDER 51.5		45-48	Loss	-110	119 h 56 m	Show
These teams met last year and Air Force won, 28-14. Navy won, 33-11, two years ago. The under has cashed the past five times these teams have met. A big factor why these two teams haven't been able to break a combined 45 points is they both run the same triple option offense. So each is totally familiar with that type of attack. Lots of running plays also keeps the clocking moving. Air Force ranks 88th in yards gained, but is 31st in yards allowed. Navy has seven defensive starters back from last year and decent depth. Only 36 teams have given up fewer yards per game than the Midshipmen.
10-07-17	Kent State v. Northern Illinois UNDER 46		3-24	Win	100	24 h 8 m	Show
A terrible offense, a star punter and projected bad weather sets up this under. Kent State is averaging 11.4 points a game. The Golden Flashes are going with two quarterbacks, George Bollas and freshman Dustin Crum against Northern Illinois. Don't expect much as Northern Illinois ranks No. 5 defensively in yards per play. Kent State's best player is punter, Derek Adams. He ranks eighth in punting average at 45.8. Kent State also has horrendous defensive numbers. But those statistics have been skewed by having to play Clemson and Louisville. The Golden Flashes are better defensively than they are on offense and they'll be aided by what could be terrible weather conditions as heavy winds are projected. That could lead to more running for Northern Illinois, which has a bigger game on tap next week on the road against Buffalo.
10-07-17	Pittsburgh v. Syracuse OVER 64		24-27	Loss	-110	115 h 25 m	Show
It was insane when these two teams met last year. There were 137 combined points and 1,312 yards of offense. Pittsburgh's defense is terrible again this season. The Panthers are giving up 31.6 points a game and 441.2 yards. Syracuse has surrendered 35 points to LSU and 33 to North Carolina State in its last two games.
09-30-17	South Carolina v. Texas A&M OVER 49		17-24	Loss	-110	48 h 8 m	Show
I'm not buying a total this low in a game involving Texas A&M. The Aggies are averaging 40.8 points a game, while surrendering 30.8. The Aggies went Over the total by 35 points in their game against Arkansas last week. South Carolina's offense is much better than it has shown the past couple of games. The Gamecocks have had ample opportunity now to ajust to losing star wide receiver Deebo Samuel.
09-30-17	Air Force v. New Mexico OVER 49.5		38-56	Win	100	47 h 46 m	Show
This total is lower than I expected. Perhaps because rain is in the forecast. But temperatures are going to be in the upper 70s with little wind expected. These are two of the top rushing teams in the nation. Air Force ranks 11th while New Mexico is 20th. The past four meetings in the series have gone Over. Expect a fifth straight Over. There isn't anything fancy going on. Just two excellent rushing teams.
09-30-17	North Carolina v. Georgia Tech OVER 58		7-33	Loss	-110	40 h 14 m	Show
Georgia Tech's triple-option attack is humming. The Yellow Jackets lead the nation in rushing yards. North Carolina ranks 87th in run defense and 113th in overall defense. North Carolina quarterback Chazz Surratt is progressing. He passed for 259 yards against Duke last week and also rushed for 77 yards. North Carolina ranks 35th in passing. The Tar Heels are 1-3, but have led in the fourth quarter in all four of their games. There were 68 points scored in last year's game. There were 69 points scored when the two teams met in 2015 and 91 points scored in 2014.
09-28-17	Texas v. Iowa State UNDER 64		17-7	Win	100	16 h 14 m	Show
The perception is for a shootout to happen here. I don't see that occurring. Texas' defense has shown much improvement during its last two games shutting out San Jose State and holding high-powered USC to 17 points in regulation. The Longhorns are going to be looking to run the ball more than usual. That's because of injuries in their offensive line and an unsettled quarterback spot where either freshman Sam Ehlinger or a rusty Shane Buechele will be the quarterback. Iowa State leads the Big 12 in sacks per game so it has the capability to take advantage of the Longhorns' makeshift offensive line.
09-23-17	Washington v. Colorado OVER 50		37-10	Loss	-110	59 h 25 m	Show
Given how well these teams have been throwing and scoring, this total is short. Washington's Jake Browning is one of the top quarterbacks in college football. The Huskies rank 25th in passing offense and 11th in scoring averaging 47 points. The Huskies' ground attack is better than it has shown so far, too. Washingotn has a dangerous return game, also. Colorado is averaging 31.7 points a game and rates 27th in the country in passing offense. The Buffaloes' running attack is better than it has shown, too. The total is low because both defenses have been strong in the ealry going. I attribute this more to the competition they've played. Colorado's defense is stepping way up after opening against Colorado State, Texas State and Northern Colorado.
09-23-17	Auburn v. Missouri UNDER 60.5		51-14	Loss	-110	31 h 48 m	Show
It's become obvious that Missouri is way down. The Tigers have faced two Division I teams and been clobbered 31-13 by South Carolina and 35-3 by Purdue. Both of those were home losses. Now the Tigers host Auburn. Auburn is the only team in the country ranking in the top 12 in total defense, scoring defense and passing defense. Auburn gives up the fewest yards per play of any team in the nation. If Missouri can only score three points and gain 203 yards against Purdue, how are the Tigers going to fare versus maybe the top defense in the country? Missouri has been playing at a slower pace this season. The Tigers definitely won't try to speed up the game versus Auburn. Missouri QB Drew Lock has a 1-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last two games. Auburn has been playing at a slower tempo, too. The Tigers also are more ground-oriented so they're likely to stay on the ground sitting on a big lead thus keeping the clock moving.
09-23-17	Florida Atlantic v. Buffalo UNDER 63		31-34	Loss	-110	54 h 43 m	Show
The oddsmaker hasn't fully caught up to the fact that Buffalo's defense is much improved now in Lance Leipold's third season. That was evident in the Bulls' opener, a 17-7 road loss to Minnesota and it has stayed that way. The Bulls have yielded just 48 points in three games playing the Gophers, Army and Colgate. They own the fourth-stingiest pass defense in the country. Buffalo, though, is averaging only 19 points a game. Florida Atlantic could mange just a combined 33 points versus Wisconsin and Navy. The Owls did blow out Bethune Cookman, 45-0, in their last game. Both teams are better defensively than offensively and are stepping up after facing easier competition last week.
09-23-17	Central Florida v. Maryland OVER 60.5		38-10	Loss	-110	27 h 4 m	Show
I'm going against early marketplace activity that has bet this total too low. Maryland scored 51 points against Texas and averages 57 points. Central Floirida buried Florida International, 61-17 in its opener and hasn't played since because of Hurricane Irma. Maryland was idle last week. So both of these teams enter this matchup extremely fresh and with ample time to game plan. This favors their offenses. Central Florida plays at a fast-pace. Knights quarterback McKenzie Milton threw for 360 yards and four touchowns against Florida International connecting with 13 different receivers. Maryland has one of the weakest pass defenses in the country surrendering more than 292 yards per game through the air. The Terrapins also have allowed their foes to convert on 50 percent of their third-down conversions. The Terrapins have outstanding running back depth, though. They rank eighth in the country averaging 315 yards on the ground. QB Kasim Hill has a high upside and has been efficient operating Maryland's offense. Hill should be in line for a big performance Central Florida's has a huge question mark at middle linebacker and a vulnerable secondary that has yet to be tested.
09-23-17	Old Dominion v. Virginia Tech OVER 52.5		0-38	Loss	-110	50 h 54 m	Show
Virginia Tech can cover this total alone. The Hokies are averaging 40.7 points per game. Freshman quarterback Josh Jackson has emerged as a star as he's 55-for-85 passing for 829 yards with a TD-to-Interception ratio of 8-to-0. Senior wide receiver Cam Phillips is having a monster season with five touchdown receptions while averaging 15.4 yards on 27 catches. Old Dominion, which is giving up nearly 26 points per game and who just surrendered 53 points to North Carolina, isn't going to be able to keep Jackson and Phillips in check. The Monarchs did get a spark in their 53-23 loss to North Carolina from freshman quarterback Steven Williams. He'll get the start here and catches a break with Virginia Tech star cornerback Adonis Alexander suspended. The over is 14-5-1 in the Monarch's last 20 road games while the over is 11-3-1 in the Hokies' past 15 non-conference matchups.
09-16-17	Louisiana Tech v. Western Kentucky OVER 61		23-22	Loss	-115	81 h 21 m	Show
A little more than 10 months ago, these two teams were playing in the Conference USA title game. The total was lined at 78 1/2 and it flew Over with Western Kentucky winning, 58-44. That's a combined 102 points. Now, just into Week 3 of this season, oddsmakers are projecting these teams to barely reach more 60 points. It's a wrong calculation. Yes, Western Kentucky's offensive numbers are way down from last year. But much of that is skewed from last week's 30-7 road loss to Illinois. The Hilltoppers aren't playing a Big Ten opponent this week. They are much more in their element taking on fellow Conference USA rival, Louisiana Tech. Western Kentucky's Mike White is one of the top QB's in the conference. Look for a strong bounce back from the Hilltoppers offense facing a Bulldogs defense that ranks 120th in scoring defense allowing 40 1/2 points per game. Louisiana Tech has been strong offensively the past three years under Skip Holtz and that's the case again this season. The Bulldogs just reload on offense. They are a top-50 team in scoring averaging 35 1/2 points and should keep improving. These tems have met three times the last two years. The average point total from those three games is 96 points.
09-16-17	Idaho v. Western Michigan OVER 53.5		28-37	Win	100	36 h 12 m	Show
I have to question Idaho's defense after the Vandals surrendered 44 points and 550 yards to UNLV at home last week. Idaho has forced just one turnover this season. Western Michigan is stepping way down in class after opening with road games against USC and Michigan State. P.J. Fleck didn't leave the cupboard bare for Tim Lester as the Broncos have great running back depth and all-MAC tight end Donnie Ernsberger. Idaho should be able to trade points with its star quarterback, Matt Linehan.
09-16-17	Purdue v. Missouri UNDER 77		35-3	Win	100	33 h 54 m	Show
Purdue is coming on offensively under Jeff Brohm and Missouri's defense remains a work-in-progress trying to get back to its form of two years when it finished 15th in the nation in total defense. But this total is too high. The Boilermakers aren't going against Lamar Jackson here. The Tigers should be fired-up defensively after getting rid if defensive coordinator DeMontie Cross. Missouri has a very good punter and a questionalbe field-goal kicker. So that's another plus for the under.
09-16-17	Virginia Tech v. East Carolina OVER 59	Top	64-17	Win	100	79 h 42 m	Show
East Carolina ranks 128th out of of 129 FBS teams in defense giving up an average of 616.5 yards in its two games. The Pirates just fired their defensive coordinator, Kenwick Thompson, after losing 56-20 to West Virginia last week. East Carolina surrendered 49 points in the first half so West Virginia called off the dogs in the second half. Virginia Tech smashed East Carolina, 54-17, at home last year. The 16th-ranked Hokies play at a fast tempo and freshman quarterback Josh Jackson is proving to be an excellent fit for their offense. Here's the thing about East Carolina. The Pirates also have a quick tempo offense. I expect the Pirates to contribute to going Over this total regardless if quarterback Thomas Sirk, who made his first start for the Pirates last week, plays or not due to a concussion he suffered last week. The Pirates figure to be throwing a lot here, which puts the pick-six for Virginia Tech very much in play. These teams shouldn't have a problem at least matching the combined 71 points scored in last year's game.
09-16-17	Air Force v. Michigan OVER 48.5		13-29	Loss	-110	43 h 32 m	Show
The marketplace reacted way too violently betting this game down too low. This sets up a value play on the Over. Yes, Air Force is a running team and Michigan didn't play that well versus Cincinnati last week. But the Wolverines have a balanced offense and are capable of putting up plenty of points here especially if they cut back - as they will - on turnovers. The Falcons have just one starter back on defense from last season. Air Force piled up 457 yards on the ground in a 62-0 blanking of VMI two weeks ago. The Falcons were idle last week so they should be fresh. Michigan, like Air Force, only returns one defensive starter from last season.
09-16-17	UL-Lafayette v. Texas A&M OVER 59.5		21-45	Win	100	42 h 23 m	Show
Texas A&M isn't taking its foot off the gas after blowing a 44-17 lead against UCLA and only beating Nicholls State, 24-14, last week. Make no mistake about it either, the Aggies have the firepower and are facing a horrendous defense that they have the capabiity of putting up 50 points themselves here. Louisiana-Lafayette is averaging 46.5 points in its two games, while surrendering an average of 57 points a game. The Ragin' Cajuns have a balanced attack, a bombs away quarterback in Jordan Davis and a dangerous kick return game.
09-09-17	Nebraska v. Oregon OVER 69		35-42	Win	100	54 h 22 m	Show
I'm expecting each of these teams to hit the 40-point barrier. Both teams are all about offense and have weak defenses. Oregon gave up 21 points in the first half to Southern Utah in a 77-21 victory last week. Tre Bryant rushed for 192 yards in Nebraska's 43-36 victory against Arkansas State last week.
09-09-17	Indiana v. Virginia OVER 56		34-17	Loss	-110	103 h 26 m	Show
Indiana is Indiana. The Hooisers score a lot - and they give up a lot. That was the case again in their opener, a 49-21 loss to Ohio State. Three quick takeaways from that game. The first, of course, is that Ohio State is an absolute powerhouse. In the argument for best team in the country. But also the Hooisers played at an extremely fast tempo and Simmie Cobbs showed his superstar potential. Cobb was hurt in the second game last season and missed the rest of the year. The former 1,000-yard receiver showed his great talent against Ohio State catching 11 passes for 149 yards and a touchdown. Cobb has an experienced quarterback in Richard Lagow, who threw for 19 touchdowns last year. Now the Hoosiers drop down to Virginia whose defense can't compare to the Buckeyes. The Cavaliers have a solid quarterback, too, in Kurt Benkert. Look for Virginia's offense to be much improved in the second season under Bronco Mendenhall. The key here is tempo with both teams playing fast.
09-09-17	Middle Tennessee State v. Syracuse UNDER 76		30-23	Win	100	51 h 3 m	Show
A lot has to go right for this total to go above this high number. While I do think Middle Tennessee State quarterback Brent Stockstill and Syracuse QB Eric Dungey will put up good numbers, it won't add up enough to go Over. Syracuse displayed some good defense in its 50-7 victory against Central Connecticut last week. Granted that was inferior competition. But I do think the Orange has improved defensively. Middle Tennessee State had problems protected Stockstill in a 28-6 loss to Vanderbilt last week. The Orange also must prove it can protect Dungey now that they are stepping up in class.
09-08-17	Oklahoma State v. South Alabama OVER 66.5	Top	44-7	Loss	-110	45 h 30 m	Show
This may look like a big total to go over, but it's not given the strength of Oklahoma State's offense and how bad South Alabama is defensively. Mason Rudolph is one of the top QB's in the country and he has a balanced attack. That was evident in Oklahoma State's season-opening, 59-24, win against Tulsa. South Alabama lost its opener, 47-27, to Mississippi. The Jaguars surrendered 531 yards and were non-competitive in the second half when their defense wore down. The Jaguars are missing their top pass rusher from last year, Randy Allen. South Alabama made strides last year. But the Jaguars aren't ready for this caliber of offense. Oklahoma State is the highest ranked opponent to visit Mobile in the Jaguars' nine-year history. The over has cashed now in 10 of South Alabama's last 12 non-conference games.
09-03-17	Texas A&M v. UCLA OVER 58		44-45	Win	100	11 h 21 m	Show
Early betting has been on the Over - and that is the right way to go in this matchup. Texas A&M is a scoring machine under Kevin Sumlin averaging 35 or more points in all but one of his five seasons. The Aggies are deep at the skill positions again headed by stars at running back in Trayveon Williams and at wide receiver/returner in Christian Kirk, who caught 83 passes last year. Their offensive line is solid, too. UCLA is breaking in a lot of new defensive starers particularly at linebacker. Defense is where the Aggies took a major hit losing linemen Myles Garrett - the No. 1 overall draft pick - and Daeshon Hall. UCLA is loaded offensively, too, headed by pro prospect quarterback Josh Rosen. The Bruins are a passing team and the Aggies' pass rush should be way down. Rosen was under pressure by the Aggies in last year's game and didn't have one of his better performances. Yet the teams still combined for 55 points and more than 900 yards. The offenses are as strong, if not stronger this season, and the defenses are weaker. So this one goes Over the total.
09-02-17	Georgia Southern v. Auburn OVER 52.5		7-41	Loss	-110	293 h 34 m	Show
Auburn coach Gus Malzahn is an offensive whiz. The Tigers are going to be even more dangerous offensively this season with a balanced attack and Chip Lindsay as offensive coordinator to assist Malzahn. Look for the Tigers to do more passing with the emergence of quarterback Jarrett Stidham, a transfer from Baylor who is below the radar right now. He can run and has a strong arm. Auburn has two excellent runners in Kamryn Pettway and Kerryon Johnson. They combined to rush for more than 2,100 yards rushing last year. The Tigers also have one of the best kickers in the country, Daniel Carlson. Gerogia Southern allowed at least 30 points in four of its last five games. Auburn scored 51 points and piled up more than 700 yards against Arkansas State last year. That was the Tigers' lone game versus a Sun Belt team. Arkansas State is better defensively than Georgia Southern. The Eagles averaged 26.2 points during their last four games. Their option attack should be improved with Bryan Cook, a disciple of Paul Johnson, brought in as offensive coordinator.
09-02-17	Miami-OH v. Marshall OVER 46		26-31	Win	100	17 h 18 m	Show
The marketplace has knocked this total down enough where there is value going Over. Miami of Ohio's offense took off during the second half of last season once Gus Ragland became the starting quarterback. Ragland had a 17-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's back and he has a full complement of good running backs and receivers at his disposal. Marshall was horrible defensively last year giving up 31 or more points seven times. The Thundering Herd's offense also was down. But I have confidence that Doc Holliday can fix Marshall's offense. Chase Litton is a decent quarterback and Marshall returns its top running backs. It's not too much to ask these two teams to go Over this total now that it's dipped below 47 especially given the quality quarterback play of both teams.

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