I'm laying the points with the Patriots on Sunday.  Obviously, all the talk is about the injury to Tom Brady's throwing hand and how serious or not-so-serious it actually is.  Ian Rappaport reported that he was throwing the ball well on Friday.  The problem for the Jaguars in this one is that they don't have a true matchup for Gronkowski.  Jalen Ramsey draws the assignment, but as reported, Ramsey has lined up outside all season, while Gronk lines up tight 90 percent of the time.  We doubt the Patriots will play right into Jacksonville's strength on defense like Pittsburgh did last week when the Steelers began the game throwing the ball often, rather than establishing the run.  Pittsburgh miscues also led to 17 Jacksonville points.  Bill Belichick and DC Matt Patricia have made a living off of designing confusion for inexperienced and shaky QBs.  Blake Bortles struggles in the passing game and if he misses early, his confidence is destroyed. Toss in a less than 100 percent healthy Leonard Fournette and the Jags will likely wear down in the second half of this one.  New England enters on a 10-1 ATS run, overall. They're on a 5-0 playoff spread run at home and 36-15-2 ATS run at home, overall.  We're laying the points with the Patriots on Sunday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday.  We have nothing but respect for the Jaguars' defense.  It was the defense that won last week's wildcard game and the defense that made Ben Roethlisberger's head spin (5 INTs) in a 30-9 Jacksonville win on October 8.  It didn't hurt Jacksonville's cause that the Steelers were off their big rivalry game against Baltimore with then undefeated Kansas City up next.  This week Pittsburgh has just one thing to focus on, beating the Jaguars and doing so with all offensive hands on deck now that Antonio Brown has been upgraded to probable.  And let's not forget the Jags may be #1 in yards passing allowed, but they're 21st against the run.  Having said that, the main problem with Jacksonville remains at the QB position, obviously, where outside of a few Blake Bortles' runs, graded extremely low again.  The passing game stunk with Bortles completing 12 of 23 passes for 87 yards, a pathetic 3.78 yards per pass attempt.  Pittsburgh will force Bortles to make plays he hasn't been able to make since entering the NFL.  The Steelers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home playoff games.  And we note that playoff teams that won no more than four games their previous season and are above .500 the current season have been dead-set go-against postseason teams, including 0-2 ATS this postseason (Jags & Rams both lost ATS last week). Finally, the Steelers are 11-1 ATS in revenge of a SU loss as home chalk.  The average final score in those 12 games: Pittsburgh 25-13.  We're laying the points with the Steelers, our Main Event on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the New England Patriots on Saturday night. Yes, the Pats' defense has not been great against the run at times this season. Yes, Tennessee has a nice pair of RBs. But whether the Patriots were going to face the Titans or Chiefs, they were going to have to slow down either team's ground game and put the onus of the offense on their opponents' passing game.  Therefore, New England didn't have to make huge defensive adjustments from what they were running on defense last week in practice just because it's Tennessee who's coming to town.  Marcus Mariota had a nice fourth quarter, but he was average for the game overall, completing 19 of 31 passes with 2 TDs and 1 INT.  KC choked the game away after building a 21-3 lead and they had no clue what to do offensively once Travis Kelce left with a concussion. The Pats don't panic and fall apart, they don't blow big leads, and outside of Tom Brady, they win games even when they lose star players during the course of a game.  Mariota still can't throw a decent ball outside the numbers and we won't be shocked if that's all New England allows here.  When the Pats load-up to slow the ground game the Titans' offense will rest on Mariota's shoulders.  We note that Dick LeBeau coached defenses have not matched-up well with the Patriots...just take a look at what New England did to the Steeler defenses he coached.  The Pats are on a 14-3 ATS run against teams with a winning record.  They're 5-1 ATS in their last six Divisional Round games.  And finally, they're on a dominating 8-2 ATS run when laying 11 points or more. New England won and covered as a double digit playoff favorite against Houston last postseason and we expect the same fate for Tennessee on Saturday.  I'm laying the points with the Patriots.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Atlanta Falcons on Saturday night.  Atlanta knows the terrain when it comes to getting to the Super Bowl and we believe it'll go a long way against an inexperienced team tonight.  And while the Rams finished the regular season atop the division and with an 11-5 SU record, they have little home field mojo, finishing just 4-4 SU.  Several weeks ago, we backed the Eagles in L.A. and watched Philly pile-up 43 points in a win and cover.  We mentioned the Rams' defensive issues and they aren't any better now, ranked 28th in yards allowed per game.  The Atlanta offense is decent on the ground and 8th in yards passing per game.  Defensively, the Falcons have allowed just 17 ppg in their last five contests and won 6 of their final 8 games to get here.  I'm taking the points with the Falcons on Saturday night.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the 49ers on Sunday.  Jimmy G. will look to extend his perfect record as a starting QB to 7-0, including 5-0 with the Niners. Meanwhile, the Rams are expected to rest starters with nothing on the line as far as playoff positioning is concerned.  SFO plus the points on Sunday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Cardinals on Sunday.  As tough as the season has been on Arizona from an injury standpoint and HC Bruce Arians' health, the Cardinals still have a shot to end Seattle's season, while finishing at .500, themselves.  We had Seattle last weekend and watched the Seahawks become the first NFL team since November, 1966, to win a game while finishing with more penalty yards than total yards.  While we won, we were disappointed in their offensive numbers, especially off the 42-7 loss to the Rams the previous week. We doubt they find a lot of success here.  After all, you can't run on the Cardinals and they're 6th in total yards allowed per game.  The pressure is on Seattle.  They're not THAT much better than Arizona and now the Cardinals have added motivation with Arians likely stepping down following this game.  The road team is 5-0-1 ATS in this series and Seattle has covered just one of their last five home games.  And finally, under Bruce Arians, the Cardinals are a perfect 7-0 ATS in revenge of a loss by 7 points or less. The average final score: Arizona 31-10. We'll grab the points with the Cardinals, our Top Shocker on Sunday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Green Bay Packers on Sunday.  Detroit is left with nothing to play for after failing to win a "must win" game against Cincinnati. That's a tough loss and I expect the Lions to be a little less than motivated for this one.  Green Bay will not only look to exact revenge for a 30-17 loss to the Lions earlier this season, while Brett Hundley was trying to learn the ropes, but while Detroit is disappointed with last week's loss, Green Bay will still be playing to win as they look to further Hundley's development.  After winning two in a row, the Packers were in next to impossible situations the last two weeks.  And before taking on the fierce Vikings' defense last week, Hundley had thrown 6 TD passes with just 1 INT in his previous three starts. Detroit's bad against the pass and owns the NFL's worst ground game. I expect the Pack to take advantage of both, even without WR's Adams and Nelson.  Green Bay is on a 7-0 ATS run on the road after scoring less than 10 points.  And under the direction of HC Mike McCarthy, the Packers are 25-12 ATS against teams that allow a completion rate of 64 percent or better, during the second half of the season.  I'm taking the points with the Packers on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Seahawks on Sunday.  Dallas is fighting for their playoff lives, but are overvalued in this spot.  Zeke Elliott makes his return and the public certainly loves that scenario, but while Nazair Jones is doubtful, Seattle is finally looking a bit healthier on the defensive end. Michael Bennett, Earl Thomas, and Bobby Wagner are all set to suit-up and take the field on Sunday.  Dallas won't be facing the same defense the Rams saw last week.  And the Cowboys might not have their best offensive linemen, Tyron Smith for this one.  At the very least, Smith will take the field well short of 100% healthy thanks to a sore knee. Meanwhile, several Cowboy defenders are hit-and-miss with sore backs.  Seattle's 9-2 ATS off two or more consecutive losses under Pete Carroll, holding those 11 opponents to an average of 14 ppg. Dallas has covered just 14 of their last 43 as home chalk under Jason Garrett.  And finally, the Seahawks are on a 16-8 ATS run with Russell Wilson at QB when getting points.  We'll take the points with the Seahawks on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. The Lions are in virtual must-win mode and we don't believe they're going to accomplish their goal.  Cincy is off two horrible performances, about as bad as it gets, but we're betting they bounce back in what will be HC Marvin Lewis' final home game.  The Bengals lost an incredible emotional and physical battle with the Steelers a few weeks ago, and basically allowed a couple more times. We went against Cincy off the loss and cashed easily with the Bears.  Last week, the Bengals were still banged-up and listless.  They might not have Vontaze Burfict back (concussion), he's listed as questionable, they're not 100% healthy (what team is at this point) but they are healthier than they were the last two weeks.  Detroit has a lot to play for, but have rarely come through in these spots. They're 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven on the road against teams with a losing record and have covered just 7 of their last 24 December games.  Marvin Lewis teams have been tremendous money-makers late in the season during his Bengals tenure and after a couple bad losses, we expect a return to form, at least for this week.  Cincy is 16-7 ATS in their last 23 December games and 8-2 ATS at home against teams with a winning record. I'm grabbing the points with the Bengals on Sunday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Tennessee Titans on Sunday.  The Rams are heading to Nashville after five straight intense situations that began with games against the Vikings and Saints and ended with their last two against the Eagles and Seahawks.  That's obviously tough on any NFL team.  The Rams do have one weakness, their run defense and that's what Tennessee does best.  When the ground game finds success, Marcus Mariota is at his best.  Four of Mariota's five best passer rating games this season came at home and he'll face a banged-up Rams' secondary.  The Titans are 5-1 SU at home this season and on a 7-2-1 ATS run at home.  They're in virtual must-win mode and while not every team comes through in this situation, we believe the Titans will hang the number at the very least. Tennessee lost last time out, but they've covered four of their last five off a SU loss.  The Rams are in a tough spot and we'll grab the points with the Titans on Sunday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Oakland Raiders on Sunday night.  Neither team can afford a loss in what will be a virtual playoff game.  We're questioning what Dallas has done to deserve to be a FG road favorite in this matchup.  The only thing we learned from last week's win over the Giants is that New York gave up on the situation.  Dallas still struggles in the passing game on both sides of the line of scrimmage.  They've allowed 2 TD passes or more in eight games this season and the secondary is certainly one Oakland QB Derek Carr can do damage against and we believe he will.  Dak Prescott has had back-to-back strong performances, but against hapless and banged-up defenses playing with little motivation.  Before facing the Giants & Skins, Prescott hadn't thrown a TD pass in three games, while firing five INTs.  At the very least, he'll see his first motivated opponent in three weeks.  Dallas has covered just 28 of 69 as chalk under Jason Garett and they're 26-39 ATS in the second half of the season during his coaching tenure. Oakland is 4-3 SU in their last seven games and two of the three losses came against New England and resurgent Kansas City, while the third came at Buffalo, a tough spot following divisional games against rivals Kansas City and the Chargers.  We bring the scheduling up for both teams because we believe the results have led to faulty public perception and line value on the home dog.  I'm taking the points with the Raiders on Sunday night.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the New England Patriots on Sunday.  Losing a game in the second half of the season is not unusual for the Patriots.  In fact, they did so again last season, losing 31-24 to Seattle.  Russell Wilson lit-up a shaky looking New England defense, completing 25 of 37 passes for 348 yards with 3 TD passes and no INTs.  The "what's wrong with the Pats' defense," folks came out of the woodwork.  New England then won their final 10 games, covering nine, including another Super Bowl win.  The Pats looked flat on Monday.  But they were far less than 100% due to injuries on both sides of the football, not to mention Rob Gronkowski's absence due to his one game suspension.  That won't be the case this week and we like the Pats to bounce back in this key contest.  New England has won four straight meetings, including each of the last three seasons by an average margin of 12.3 ppg.  The Pats are on a 24-8 ATS run, overall, and they're 8-2 SU & 7-2 ATS when Brady faces the Steelers.  Pittsburgh has been putting points on the board lately, but they also allow quite a few, giving up 86 points in their last three games and the loss of Ryan Shazier looms big against the Brady, Cooks, Gronk-led attack.  Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, and Brett Hundley threw a combined 7 TD passes with just 1 INT the last 3 weeks against the Steelers' defense. Meanwhile, I expect a return to form by the Patriots' bend-don't-break defense that Matt Patricia has directed so well. New England enters on a 7-0 ATS run when facing a good passing offense, those that average at least 260 yards passing per game.  And under Belichick, New England is 6-0 ATS off a SU divisional loss as a favorite of 6 or more.  I'm backing the New England Patriots on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday.  We played against both of these teams last week and cashed both tickets.  Minnesota was in a tough spot at Carolina, which wasn't limited to, but included their third straight road game.  Meanwhile, the Bengals were banged-up off the extremely physical and emotional loss to Pittsburgh.  Cincy has dropped two in a row SU and they've covered eight of their last nine in this spot (after losing at least two straight SU).  The Bengals are normally undervalued on the road and they've fared well ATS in 61 tries under Marvin Lewis.  Recently,  the Bengals have gone 5-1 ATS off a double digit home loss and they have covered four in a row on the road against teams with a winning home record...once again, undervalued. We're getting a couple points extra from last week's look-ahead lines, thanks to Cincy's horrible outing against Minnesota.  We also note that Cincy's injuries on defense have been baked into this number.  I'm grabbing the points with the Bengals on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Bears on Saturday night.  Chicago has made "hanging around" an art form.  Six of their nine losses came by one score. And last week, they not only caught Cincinnati in a tough situation, but followed through with an outstanding performance on both sides of the line of scrimmage.  We believe the success on the ground, which opened things up for Mitchell Trubisky will carry over into the game against the Lions.  Detroit has played poorly against both the run and the pass and it's added up to the 27th ranked defense in total yards allowed per game.  At the same time, the Lions have zero semblance of a ground game (dead last in the NFL) and QB Matthew Stafford has been under constant pressure because of it.  The Bears' defense is playing well, ranked in the top half of the NFL against the run and in the top 10 defending the pass.  The first meeting was decided by 3 points with Detroit winning 27-24 on a 52-yard Matt Prater FG with 95 seconds left in regulation.  Chicago ran for 222 yards on 30 carries, while holding the Lions to 65 yards rushing.  Chicago is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  And John Fox-coached teams have been terrific on the road following an outright win as a road underdog, posting an 11-2 ATS mark, while outscoring those 13 opponents by an average of 23-20.  I'm grabbing the points with the Bears on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday.  We went against Philly in week-13 and cashed when the Seahawks won 24-10. Philadelphia actually out-gained Seattle, 425 to 310, but one of the problems was a minus-2 turnover rate. And even worse for Philly, one of the turnovers was a Carson Wentz fumble at the Seattle 1-yard line, resulting in a touchback.  Philly was in a tough spot last week, but it's the Rams who're in the tough situation in week-14.  The Rams are off wins over New Orleans and on the divisional over Arizona.  Next up is a road date with division rival Seattle.  While the Rams would no doubt like to beat Philly in a quest for the best record in the NFC by the end of the season, beating Seattle next week is more important.  Most importantly for us, the Eagles own the NFL's second best ground game on offense and they're the stingiest in the league defending the run.  The Rams biggest weakness is their run defense, which ranks 27th in the league in yards allowed per game, while they're middle of the pack on the ground on offense.  The Eagles enter on an 8-1 ATS run  Finally, let's not fail to note that there has been a five point adjustment from last week's Westgate Super Book look-ahead line where the Eagles were posted as a 2 1/2 point favorite.  In fact, they opened a 2 1/2 point favorite in a few books this past Sunday before the Rams became the chalk. TE Zach Ertz is listed as questionable, but we like Philly in this spot whether he plays or not.  I'm grabbing the points with the Eagles, our Hammer release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday.  Seattle won a key game last week when they beat Philadelphia at home.  But the win and the score were a bit misleading. Seattle was out-gained 425-310.  Also, the Seahawks benefited from a Carson Wentz fumble at the Seattle 1-yard line ending in a touchback and Seattle's ball, rather than a Philly touchdown.  The Seahawk offense has been all Russell Wilson virtually all season.  The offensive line leaves a lot to be desired, thanks in part to injuries, leading to the lack of a ground game outside of their MVP-type QB. Meanwhile, the passing game, without big playmakers, will face the stingiest pass defense in the NFL.  No one runs the football like the Jags this season and while he still doesn't light-up pass defenses, QB Blake Bortles has been taking care of the football in the passing game with 12 TD passes and 6 INTs since week-3.  We note that road teams with a winning record have covered just 15 of the last 54 if they are off a SU win as a home dog and are playing a team with a winning record.  We'll look for Jacksonville to extend their mini-run to 5-1 ATS against teams with a winning record.  I'm backing the Jaguars, our Beatdown on Sunday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Chicago Bears on Sunday.  Chicago's offense looked pretty bad last weekend, but the defense has played well and they're catching the Bengals at the perfect time.  Cincinnati is not only off their toughest game of the season, both emotionally and physically, but they lost that game and will be short-handed today.  They took a hit at RB, but equally important, the defense took on serious water.  The secondary is in shambles, losing multiple players, including Adam Jones who was put on the IR after the game.  The leader of the defense, Vontaze Burfict is out this week, part of an injury issue at LB. Cincinnati's stop unit, already 28th in the NFL against the run, should see a steady dose of the best thing going for the Bears, RB Jordan Howard, who is just 115 yards from a 1,000 yards season, and gains over 4 yards per pop.  The ground game should give needed help to the passing game, while the defense is top half in the league against the run, the pass, and in total yards per game.  And let's not fail to mention the Cincinnati offense is ranked 25th to 31st in just about every important category.  As far as the techs are concerned, NFL home teams are 11-34 ATS if they have a .400-.490 record and have covered at least three straight games, provided they're playing a team with a losing record.  These home teams tend to get a public bounce due to covering recent games.  Those same home teams are on a 0-8 ATS slide whether they're facing losing or winning teams.  I'm backing the Bears plus the points, our Top Shocker on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the 49ers plus the points on Sunday.  We took two big SFO positives from last week's 15-14 win at Chicago: 1) Jimmy Garoppolo already has full understanding of the plays being called. 2) The Niner defense can certainly handle mediocre offenses.  SFO has won two of their last three games and have lost five games by three points or less (two losses in OT).  They're just 13 points away from a possible 7-5 SU mark.  The Niners came that close and did so without a true starting QB...but now they have one - in fact a very good one that Bill Belichick didn't want to lose. Houston has been hit by the injury bug as bad as anyone in the league.  The offense isn't good and is led by a backup QB.  The Texans have dropped five of six games SU, scoring an average of 12.5 ppg in their last four losses.  So, we have two teams with a combined record of 6-18 SU, but they're definitely headed in opposite directions.  SFO enters on a 5-2 ATS run on the road overall, and they're 4-1 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a losing home record.  Houston is 4-7 SU & 3-7 ATS with Tom Savage at QB, including 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS this season.  I'm grabbing the points with the 49ers, our KO on Sunday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Panthers on Sunday.  We understand how well Minnesota has performed under HC Mike Zimmer, but this is an ultra tough spot for the Vikings.  Minnesota will be playing their third straight road game and fourth roadie in their last five games.  They're also running into a stingy defense looking to bounce back after a shaky performance last week in New Orleans.  The Panthers don't match up well with the Saints.  In fact, take away their two games against New Orleans and the Panthers are 8-2 SU in their other 10.  Carolina's defense is ranked in the top four in just about every important category, while Minnesota's offensive line is a bit banged-up for this contest.  The Viking defense has been stingy, themselves, but this is the type of defense we feel Cam Newton can find success against.  The only time Minnesota faced a true mobile QB was in their 23-10 win over Green Bay. However, Aaron Rodgers was knocked out of the game in the opening quarter and Brett Hundley wasn't ready for the call.  Greg Olsen and Jonathan Stewart have both received the thumbs-up to play this week and that's the final keys in this play. Carolina has covered five of six off a SU loss.  They have been focused off divisional games, going 11-3 ATS in this spot the last three seasons, and they're 18-3 ATS off a road loss under HC Ron Rivera with an average win margin of nearly 10 ppg.  We're grabbing the points with the Panthers on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the New Orleans Saints on Thursday night.  Falcons' offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian continues to get out-witted by opposing defensive coordinators.  We saw it again this past Sunday when Atlanta's attack did nothing but sputter against the Vikings in a 14-9 Falcon loss.  Atlanta has now lost home games to Buffalo, Miami, and Minnesota, while scoring a grand total of 43 combined points.  Offensively, teams have found they can run against the Falcons and New Orleans is 3rd in the NFL in yards rushing per game.  The fact the Saints have balanced out the offense this season has made Drew Brees even more effective and it's one of the top reasons why this squad heads into week-14 with a 9-3 SU mark.  Another factor is a much improved defense that has allowed just 66 points, or 13 ppg in their last five road games.  The Saints are on a 13-3 ATS road run and they're 8-1 ATS on the road against teams with a winning home record.  They're also 13-3 ATS against weak pass defenses, those that allow a completion rate of 61% or higher (Atlanta's defense fits that dubious distinction).  We also note the road teams has covered four of the last five meetings.  I'm backing the Saints on Thursday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Seattle Seahawks plus the points on Sunday night.  Pete Carroll's troops have taken care of business when installed as a home dog, going 12-4 ATS.  Seattle blew one against Atlanta, falling by a FG after choosing to run a fake FG late in the first half.  The failed attempt turned out to be the difference in the game.  They bounced back with a win and cover last week over SFO and the defense played well.  They've now held three of their last four opponents to 13, 16, and 17 points.  Yes, the Philly offense is a step-up in level of competition and yes, Seattle is short-handed in the secondary, missing Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman.  But we got the info we wanted to hear when Shaquill Griffin and Earl Thomas were both upgraded to "expected to play."  I'm not going to beat-up the Eagles, but we must note that 9 of their 10 wins came against teams with a combined record of 35 wins and 67 losses.  They've played just two games against teams who currently own a winning record and split those contests, losing to Kansas City 27-20, while beating Carolina, 28-23.  They only out-gained the Panthers by 5 yards (310 to 305) and Carson Wentz completed a combined 41 of 76 passes in the two games, a rather weak, 53.9% completion rate. Along with the 12-4 ATS mark mentioned above, the Seahawks have been a bankroll building team in the all-important month of December, going 19-6-1 ATS.  I'm taking the points with Seattle on Sunday night.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Chicago Bears on Sunday.  There's been a lot of love this week for SFO since it was announced former Tom Brady back-up, Jimmy Garoppolo would start behind center.  So much so, that the line has dropped from as high as 5 1/2, down to as low as 3.  The Bears were no match for the red-hot Eagles last week, but while they're just 3-8 SU this season, they finished within one score of their opponent in five of their losses; they have been competitive most of the season.  The key to this game will be whether or not Chicago can form a ground game, which will lead to more time in the pocket when Mitch Trubisky goes up top.  The ground attack is actually 8th in the NFL in yards per game.  Yes, they were shut down by the Eagles, but SFO is not Philadelphia.  The Niners are 30th in the league, allowing 129 yards rushing per game.  They're 26th against the pass and 28th in total yards allowed.  Offensively, SFO can't run the football and the change at QB isn't going to help the ground game.  Besides, Chicago is top 16 on defense against both the run and pass.  The Bears are on a 9-2 ATS run in their last 11 home games and they're on a 7-0 ATS run off a road loss by 14 or more over the last three seasons.  John Fox-coached teams are 12-3 ATS following a game where they scored less than seven points.  Chicago beat SFO 26-6 at home almost one year ago to the day (Dec. 4), and we expect another win and cover here.  I'm laying the points with the Bears, our Smackdown release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Rams on Sunday.  Tough outing for L.A. last week as they had their problems mounting their typical ground game.  But a couple of mistakes and miscues turned a 7-7 4th quarter tie into a 24-7 loss in Minnesota.  Having said that, the ground game and passing game have been strong all season, both ranked 9th in the NFL and New Orleans, in all due credit, have taken on more than their share of softies.  Before last week's comeback win over Washington, the Saints had beaten the Packers without Aaron Rodgers, the Bears, the Buccs, and the Bills in recent games.  The best record of the bunch is 5-5 (Green Bay is 1-3 without Rodgers).  Last week, against a decent offense, the Saints defense allowed 31 points on 456 yards.  Samaje Perine ran for 117 yards and Kirk Cousins had a fantastic game.  I do believe the Saints' defense can be had by a balanced attack and the Rams are certainly that.  Red hot NFL teams don't stay that way for too long and eight game winning streaks are obviously quite rare.  And under Sean Payton, the Saints have covered JUST 3 of 14 after scoring 25 or more in three straight games. The Rams have covered four of their last five games and the home team is on a 5-0 ATS run in the series.  I'm laying the points with the Rams on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Buffalo Bills on Sunday.  Tyrod Taylor is back behind center after a one week failed test by Nathan Peterman.  Taylor and company are getting too many points against an overvalued KC Chiefs' team. Since their 5-0 start, (when they caught every break in the book), the Chiefs have dropped four of five.  Defense, or lack thereof, has been the main culprit. The Chiefs enter the weekend ranked 28th in the NFL in yards per play allowed and they've given up over 4.5 yards per carry on the ground.  I suspect LeSean McCoy is champing at the bit.  WR Kelvin Benjamin (knee) may miss this week's game, but we like the rest of the receiving corps against the vulnerable Chiefs' defense and we're quite pleased to see TE Charles Clay has been upgraded and is expected to start.  As far as the techs are concerned, road teams are 12-2 ATS if they're off at least three straight losses.  And you're 52-24 ATS playing against home favorites off a road loss, provided they're playing an opponent off a road loss by at least 21 points.  I'm taking the points with the Buffalo Bills on Sunday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Seattle Seahawks on Monday night.  The Seahawks have had extra time to prepare for the Falcons, who are off a win over the Dallas Cowboys.  Atlanta couldn't have caught Dallas at a more opportune time. But the Falcons have had their issues, getting out-adjusted throughout the course of several games this season. We expect more of that in this one.  We also expect the Seattle defense to keep the ATL offense under control start to finish.  That's not quite as difficult as it was last season with Atlanta averaging under 22 ppg and scoring 17 or fewer points in four of their last six games. Seattle's a dominant 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 MNF appearances, while ATL has dropped five of their last six ATS, overall.  The Falcons have covered just five of their last 21 against teams that connect on at least 61% of their passes on the season.  We note that in 60 second half of the season games under Pete Carroll, Seattle has turned up the heat, averaging 26 ppg, while allowing just 17 ppg.  And finally, they're 19-7 ATS in weeks 10-13.  We're laying the points with the Seahawks on Monday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday.  Injuries had devastated the Green Bay Packers and I'm not just talking about losing Aaron Rodgers.  The offensive line seems to take new "hits" every week and will be down three starters in all likelihood.  QB Brett Hundley needs his "wheels" if he's ever going to show improvement as an NFL signal caller, but even he has an injury, nursing a hamstring, which could "hamstring" his mobility behind the banged-up o-line.  And while the Packers continue to lose bodies on both sides of the line of scrimmage, the Ravens are getting healthy.  HC John Harbaugh commented on the state of his team's health being the best it has been all season.  Baltimore is on a 40-28 ATS run under Harbaugh when the line is in the +3/-3 range.  They're 7-3 SU/ATS off a bye and a decent 18-11 ATS in the second half of the season against teams that allow at least 7 yards per pass attempt. We expect better things from the Ravens over the remaining weeks, especially as players return to the field.  I'm laying the points with the Ravens on Sunday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Denver Broncos on Sunday night.  Outside of last week's disaster in Philly, the Broncos' defense has played extremely well this season, ranked 2nd in the league in total yards allowed per contest.  I expect a "chip on their shoulder" effort this week after last weekend's embarrassment.  They'll face a less than healthy Patriot offensive line with Marcus Cannon banged-up and the WR unit is far from healthy.  The Denver defense has matched-up well over the last several meetings, holding Brady in check more often than not.  The Patriots' offense hasn't been anything special of late, averaging just 21.75 ppg over their last four contests.  And you always have to lay a little extra when the Pats are involved, which explains their 2-6 ATS slide on the road against teams with a losing home record.  Denver enters on a 5-1 ATS run as a home dog and they're 6-2 ATS at home against New England.  I'm grabbing the points with the Broncos on Sunday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. I like going against teams that struggle throwing the football when they're laying more than a FG.  The Titans fit the mold.  They don't own the consistent passing game (27th in yards per game) to win by margin in most cases.  In fact, the Titans are 1-3-1 ATS when laying more than 2 points and have had a tough time just reaching 300 yards of total offense in several games of late. Tennessee has been a November fade, covering just one of their last eight. Cincy heads into this one, winners in three of their last five games and they own the defense (6th in total yards allowed) to slow the Titan offense.  I'm grabbing the points with the Bengals, our KO release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Buffalo Bills on Sunday.  Tough situation for the Saints who're heading out on the road sporting a 6-game SU/ATS winning streak.  But take a look at the opponents.  We give New Orleans credit for winning against the teams in front of them, but they haven't faced a gauntlet of offensive firepower.  The Bills may not pile-up big passing yardage, but they can control a game with the ground attack.  They're a perfect 4-0 SU at home (3-0-1 ATS) and won by an average margin of more than a TD per contest.  Buffalo has been a winner at home with Tyrod Taylor behind center, going 18-7 SU and 16-8 ATS. And their passing game should be the best we've seen all season with newly acquired WR Kelvin Benjamin expected to suit-up.  Tough spot for the Saints, while I expect Buffalo at its best!  We'll grab the points with the Bills, our Underdog release. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday.  We were prepared to back Dallas with or without Zeke Elliott and we now know we'll have him on the field.  The Cowboys ground game will face one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  In fact, KC's defense is bottom of the league in yards per play allowed. They also rank 28th, 29th, and 30th, in run defense, pass defense, and total yards allowed per game, respectively. The Chiefs are a good team, but they aren't an elite team in our opinion. The Cowboys enter on a 9-1 ATS run off two straight road wins and they're 6-0 ATS after out-rushing their opponents by at least 75 yards two straight weeks.  I'm laying the points with the Cowboys, our Knockout on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Denver Broncos on Sunday.  The switch at QB from Trevor Simien to Brock Osweiler can only help Denver.  Simien had lost his confidence, looked lost at times, and at least Osweiler has won with this organization and is familiar with a couple of his receivers.  He's also making his first start of the season against the NFL's 27th ranked pass defense.  Mostly, we like the fact that the Denver defense is catching the Eagles at the right time.  Philly is banged-up on the offensive line and must face the NFL's 2nd ranked run defense, 6th ranked pass defense, and stingiest defense in total yards allowed.  This is the time of year when teams that have been knocked around a bit start to own spread value.  In fact, after the first month of the season, NFL non-favorites on the road (dogs or PK) are on a 46-18 ATS run provided they were beaten ATS by at least 49 points over the last five games.  These teams are undervalued ATS at this point of the season and Denver is one of those teams.  I'm grabbing the points with the Denver Broncos, our DogPound release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Colts on Sunday.  The adjustment of 6 points for the loss of Deshaun Watson is not enough as far as we're concerned.  A Tom Savage-led offense shouldn't be this big of a favorite over anyone, and now it's the underdog Colts with the best QB on the field.  Jacoby Brissett has completed over 60% of his passes as a member of the Colts and came up just short last weekend against the Bengals. Indy is actually on an 11-2 ATS run on the road against teams with a losing record and the road team is on a 4-0-2 ATS run in the series.  The value lies with the dog and we'll back them here.  I'm taking the points with the Colts, our Road Warrior release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Oakland Raiders plus the points on Sunday.  We had Oakland last week and cashed when the won late at Kansas City.  We felt that was a galvanizing victory for several reasons. While the general public is in love with the Bills in this one, we like the way the offensive line gave Derek Carr the time to throw last week and it certainly helps to have Amari Cooper back on track. They'll attack a Bills' defense ranked 26th against the pass.  The offense is also bad through the air and we feel they'll have fall behind and not be able to catch up in this one.  Oakland is on a 10-4 ATS run as a road dog and they're 8-1 ATS off an outright win when getting points.  I'm taking the points with the Raiders on Sunday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Carolina on Sunday.  Last weekend's loss to Chicago couldn't have been more misleading or frustrating if you were a Panther backer.  The Panthers' defense was fantastic, holding the Bears to 5 first downs and 153 total yards, but Chicago's defense returned a fumble 75 yards for one TD, and had a 76 yard pick-6 for another TD.  Not only did the Bears score 14 points off those two plays, but with the ball inside the Chicago 30, the turnovers took a potential 14 points away from Carolina.  The Panthers were "that close" to a possible 17-3 win and cover.  Cam Newton is ticked-off and we expect the Panther offense to take care of business against the NFL's 30th ranked defense in both passing yards allowed and total yards allowed. Meanwhile, the 4th ranked Carolina defense will look to slam the door on a Tampa Bay offense that has been without Jameis Winston for a pair of practice days this week.  We aren't too crazy about the Buccs offense whether it's Winston or Ryan Fitzpatrick behind center.  Carolina has covered five of their last six road games and they've covered four straight in Tampa Bay.  The overvalued Buccs have failed to cover any of their last five games and they're 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 home games against teams with a winning road record.  I'm taking the points with the Panthers on Sunday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Washington Redskins on Monday night. Payback is on the minds of the Skins after losing 30-17 to Philadelphia in week-one.  The final score was misleading, it was a 19-17 game with 2+ minutes to go in the fourth quarter before the Eagles kicked a FG and scored late on a fumble return for a TD.  The Skins were sloppy in the loss and Kirk Cousins had yet to find his stride. But since then, Cousins has thrown 8 TD passes with just 1 INT, and the Skins now own the NFL's 8th best passing game, averaging over 250 yards per game. The Skins will face the league's 29th ranked pass defense.  Washington has been a true road warrior for the bankroll, covering 10 of the last 13 away from home.  They're 8-2 ATS in their last 10 trips to Philly.  Washington has also been great at solving good run defenses over the last three seasons, going 6-0 ATS against teams that allow no more than 90 yards rushing per game.  The coaching staff gets another shot at this type of defense, while Cousins and company get another shot to atone for the week-one loss.  We'll back them here.  I'm grabbing the points with the Redskins on Monday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Denver Broncos on Sunday, our KO release.  Denver couldn't have looked any worse on Sunday night in their loss to the Giants.  The offense was horrible, the defense was gouged on the ground.  But after playing about as bad as they possibly can, we like the Broncos to bounce right back today. The Chargers are back home where they're winless after winning two in a row on the road.  But that's the main thing when it comes to LAC.  We don't want to play them in their new "digs" where a false home field advantage is somewhat baked into the number.  L.A. is not supporting this team and half the crowd at the soccer field in Carson will be wearing Denver colors.  As far as the on field matchups are concerned, Denver runs well, while the defense is a beast, outside of the anomaly against the Giants.  Meanwhile, the Chargers are dead last against the run, and while they have "found" Melvin Gordon of late, we don't feel he'll be able to get the job done on the ground against the Broncos.  The Chargers enter on a 2-8-1 ATS slide, overall.  They've covered just 7 of their last 26 home games (0-3 SU/ATS this season), and Denver has covered 5 of the last 6 road games in this series.  Different home venue for the Chargers...same results. I'm backing the Denver Broncos, our KO release on Sunday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Green Bay Packers on Sunday.  We fully understand the reason for the 10+ point adjustment following the injury to Aaron Rodgers. We also believe the adjustment is too great.  New Orleans is on a nice run, winning and covering three straight games, and as NFL teams are in this situation, they're overvalued, receiving a lot of recent hype.  Brett Hundley has been waiting for his chance, while learning behind arguably the best QB in the league.  While no one makes the throws from all angles like Rodgers, Hundley can certainly extend plays with his feet like his mentor.  The latest injury updates certainly help our cause with both Green Bay starting OTs expected to play.  HC Mike McCarthy has done a tremendous job getting his team ready off a division game, going 12-1 ATS in this spot the last 13 times, including a 4-0 ATS run off a division loss.  They're also 20-6 ATS off a two-game road trip.  We're taking the points with the Packers on Sunday, our Dogpound release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Oakland Raiders on Thursday night.  We went against the Chiefs this past weekend and watched Pittsburgh pile-up 230 yards in the first half, while holding KC to 6 yards.  The Steelers slammed the door on the Chiefs' ground game, holding Kareem Hunt in check, forcing Alex Smith to attempt to beat them with the passing game.  The Chiefs aren't generally that type of team.  We expect the Raiders' defense to put pressure in the same areas.  Oakland's biggest issue the last four games has been a lack of consistent offense.  They've had bumps and bruises to key players, including QB Derek Carr, while there has also been too much focus on deep, downfield passes, rather than earning their way downfield.  We mentioned in last week's analysis against Pittsburgh, that KC's defense is quite beatable.  They rank 24th against the pass, 27th against the run, and 29th in total yards allowed per game. Oakland may be getting "just what the doctor ordered," as they attempt to right the offensive ship.  KC has been the right side in this series of late, but we expect that to end here.  And we note that NFL teams that average at least 4.5 yards per carry have covered just 27 of the last 85 times provided they ran for no more than 50 yards in their previous game.  KC fits the bill.  We're taking the points with the Raiders, our Hammer on Thursday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday.  Read some reports and it sounds like the wheels are coming off in the Pittsburgh clubhouse.  We're not buying it. Pittsburgh has a great chance to right the ship with a game on Sunday against the undefeated KC Chiefs.  But while KC is 5-0 SU, the defense has been soft. The Chiefs rank 21st against the run, 25th against the pass, and 27th in total yards allowed per game.  The Steelers should be able to run the football, loosening up the KC defense as Big Ben and company look to rebound from last week's nightmare performance (we had the Jags).  We note that the Steelers are not only on a 16-5 ATS run after allowing 30 points or more, but they have handled Chief-like defenses over the last few years.  Mike Tomlin's troops are 8-2 ATS against teams that allow at least 4.5 yards per carry and they're on a 6-1 ATS run against teams that allow at least 6 yards per play. Finally, while the Steelers draw everyone's attention and the Chiefs would like to exact revenge for the January 2017 playoff loss, KC does have bigger fish to fry, following Sunday's game with a Thursday night meeting with fellow AFC West rivals Oakland.  We like Pittsburgh to bounce back here and we're grabbing the points.  The Steelers plus the points on Sunday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the L.A. Rams on Sunday.  We were on the Jaguars last week and cashed the ticket when they whipped the Pittsburgh Steelers, 30-9. Neither team was expected to be 3-2 SU at this point of the season, but we like what we're seeing out of the Rams.  The passing game is the real deal.  Jared Goff is getting solid protection, while the defense is tough in the trenches, thanks in part to Aaron Donald. Meanwhile, Jacksonville's passing game still leaves a lot to be desired.  Blake Bortles' accuracy issues are at an all-time low, completing just 54.8% of his passes this season.  Bortles and the Jags had that huge game against Baltimore in London, but take that one contest out of the mix and Bortles has just 3 TDs with 4 INTs in his other four games this season.  When the Rams have the ball, we expect to see a solid ground game with Todd Gurley leading the way against the NFL's 31st ranked run defense.  With Gurley keeping the defense honest, Goff and his receiving corps should find consistent success. We note that NFL non-favorites (PK or underdog) playing .510 to .600 football, are on a 38-14 ATS run if they're off a division loss and are playing a team with a winning record.  The Rams fit the bill.  I'm taking the points with the L.A. Rams on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Cleveland Browns on Sunday.  Tough spot for Houston.  They're off four straight big games and took a serious hit on the defensive side of the football with the loss of J.J. Watt, along with several bumps and bruises to all units on the defensive side of the football. Cleveland is 0-5 SU, but three of their losses came by a FG each.  The Browns have been outstanding against the run and in total yards allowed per game, where they rank 5th stingiest in both. The offense made the right move, benching rookie DeShone Kizer for 2nd year QB Kevin Hogan.  Kizer wasn't improving and Hogan came off the bench to complete 16 of 19 passes to earn the job.  Houston has next week off and this could be a tough spot to stay focused.  Cleveland enters on a 19-7-1 ATS run on the road against teams with a losing home record.  We believe the Browns are in for another close one giving us solid value with the big number.  I'm grabbing the points with the Browns, our Sunday Shocker.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Panthers on Thursday.  We have a couple of hot teams meeting in Carolina tonight, but we believe the home team will emerge victorious.  Home teams have been the way to go on Thursdays, covering 14 of the last 21.  Home teams are also on an 8-1 spread run the last nine times on Thursday night football.  We don't bet on teams due to trends and angles, but this one tells the story on just how difficult it can be to travel to another team's home address on a short week. The Eagles have pressing issues up front on offense where they'll miss OLT Lane Johnson, out tonight due to a concussion.  The Eagles' offense did not fare well last season in games Lane Johnson missed.  At the same time, the Panthers won't have center Ryan Kalil, but they have been dealing with his injuries for a few weeks, it's nothing new.  Carolina QB Cam Newton lost favorite target Greg Olsen in week-2, but he's developed strong aerial relationships with Ed Dickson, Christian McCaffrey, and David Funchess.  The Panther passing game will lineup against the NFL's 29th ranked pass defense tonight.  Meanwhile, the Panthers' stop unit is top-6 in rushing, passing, and total yards allowed - a big step-up in level of competition from what the Philly offense has seen in their last three games (Giants, Chargers, Cardinals).  Besides the trends mentioned above, NFL teams are on a 26-7 ATS run off an outright win as an underdog, provided they and their current opponent are both playing .750 or better football.  I'm laying the points with the Panthers on Thursday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday. Green Bay is a banged-up on the offensive line and at RB where Ty Montgomery is doubtful and Jamaal Williams is expected to play, but less than 100% healthy.  WR Devante Adams is also questionable (concussion), and on defense, the team has been hit by nagging bumps and bruises to the LB corps.  However, the main reason we're backing the Cowboys, besides line value, is the fact they should be able to run the football against the Pack, who allow 111 yards rushing per game.  That's the Cowboys' desired game plan.  Run the football and take pressure of the passing game.  That's when Dak Prescott is at his best and we believe it'll be the difference in this game.  Dallas got the ground game going last week, rushing for 189 yards.  They're on a 7-0 ATS run, winning by an average score of 31-17, after rushing for at least 175 yards in their most recent game.  We'll back the 'Boys here.  I'm laying the points with the Dallas Cowboys, our Beatdown release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday.  Tough spot for the Bills who're on the road for the second straight game and the third time in their last four weeks. We had the Bills when they knocked-off the Denver Broncos, but that was a great spot to play against Denver.  The Buffalo offense has been one dimensional with the second worst passing game in the NFL, averaging just 171 yards per game.  The running game is better, but nothing to write home about, ranked 16th in the league.  The Bills have been doing it with defense, but we like the look of the Bengals with a new play-caller making a difference.  After a horrible output in week's one and two, the Bengals' offense has scored a combined 55 points the last two games and QB Andy Dalton is 46 of 57, 81% passing, with 498 yards, 6 TDs and ZERO interceptions.  Cincy will also be motivated looking to atone for their first two home games this season when they were outscored 33-9 by Baltimore and Houston.  The Bills roll into town on a 3-12 ATS slide on the road against defenses that hold the opposition to no more than 4.75 yards per play. Meanwhile, Cincy is on a 10-2 ATS run after covering two of three games, doing well with momentum.  And they're 7-2 ATS after holding opponents to less than 100 yards rushing.  I'm laying the points with the Bengals, our Mismatch on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the New England Patriots on Thursday.  The last time the Pats started 2-2 was the 2014 season.  The defense looked suspect allowing 33 points in a 13-point loss to Miami and 41 points in a 27-point loss to Kansas City.  The very next week, the Patriots were a 2.5-point underdog to Cincy, but slammed the Bengals, 43-17. New England's defense looked just as bad in a couple games this season and the Pats are no longer the favorite to win the Super Bowl, falling behind Pittsburgh in Las Vegas books.  But they're facing a Tampa Bay defense ranked 31st against the pass.  Tom Brady and company ought to eat this defense up, whether Gronk is healthy enough to play or not.  Offensively, the Buccs are led by Jameis Winston, who continues to toss turnover-worthy passes game after game and already has a 3-INT game against the Vikings.  Winston has no help around him in the ground game to keep defenses honest.  The Pats enter on a 28-13 ATS run after allowing at least 30 points.  They're on a 5-0 ATS run on the road against teams with a winning record, and the Pats are 41-18-1 ATS off a SU loss.  We aren't giving up on the Pats just yet.  In fact, we're backing them here.  I'm laying the points with the Patriots, our Thursday Knockout.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Broncos on Sunday.  After disposing of the Titans in a fairly close battle and crushing the NY Jets, the Raiders came back to earth in a thumping at the hands of the Redskins.  Denver looked almost as sluggish in their outright loss in Buffalo.  But after the tough roadie, we expect Denver to bounce back at home. The fears and concerns some had regarding the Raiders' defense before the season, came to fruition when Kirk Cousins carved them up.  Offensively, we expect the Raiders to have some issues again.  One trusted stat site reported that Derek Carr is averaging a league-worst, 2.3 yards per pass under pressure and he was under pressure a lot on Sunday night.  That's scary news for Oakland facing Denver's outstanding rush ends, backed by a pair of elite corners. Denver enters on an 8-2-1 ATS run in the series.  They have also been an outstanding bankroll builder during the first half of the last couple seasons, covering 12 of 16.  I'm laying the points with the Broncos on Sunday, our KO release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the LA Chargers on Sunday, our Smackdown.  The Chargers were expected to be a darkhorse in the AFC West this season, but a tough 0-3 SU start has them at the bottom of the standings.  They actually out-gained KC last week and trailed by just 7 points, 17-10, with 2 minutes to go in the game, despite Philip Rivers looking like a turnover machine (3 INTs).  The Chargers are virtually two special teams plays away from a win in their first two games, and a couple of scrimmage plays away against KC from a possible 3-0 record.  Philly comes to town with a messy secondary, thanks in part to injuries.  The Eagles have allowed 266 yards passing per game, which ranks 26th in the NFL.  They have allowed their last two opposing QBs, Eli Manning and Alex Smith to connect on 56 of 75 passes, a 75% completion rate. Offensively, Carson Wentz has been good but not great and we believe he's in for a rough outing with his bruised offensive line matched up against the Chargers' outstanding rush ends.  The Eagles have covered just two of their last nine road games, while the Chargers have covered four straight ATS off a double digit home loss.  We cashed going against the Eagles last week and we'll do so again in week-4.  We'll back the Chargers, our Smackdown on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Titans on Sunday.  Houston came close at New England last week, but fell short when Tom Brady picked the defense apart on a game winning drive.  Deahaun Watson found plenty of holes in the Patriots' pass defense, which is still attempting to get on the same page.  The Pats made numerous mistakes in coverage. We highly doubt the fundamentally sound Titans will allow the same looks for Watson this week.  Offensively, Tennessee is moving defenses off the ball.  They ran the ball 36 times for 179 yards two weeks ago and another 35 times for 195 yards in last week's win over Seattle. The ground game takes pressure off Marcus Mariota and the passing game and we expect more success against a middle of the pack Houston defense.  But the biggest problem for Houston is the one dimensional offense, that runs well, but ranks 31st through the air.  Tennessee is 12-4 ATS after scoring at least 30 points in two straight games, while Houston has covered just 2 of 9 against teams that average at least 27 ppg under HC Bill O'Brien.  I'm backing Tennessee minus the points, our Road Warrior. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Cardinals on Monday night.  Dallas is looking to atone for last week's debacle in Denver, but this wasn't a sudden drop-off in offensive output.  The Cowboys have scored 19 or fewer points in five of their last seven regular season games. Teams have figured out how to slow down Dallas, it's just a matter of execution. Load up against the run and make QB Dak Prescott beat you with his arm.  One Denver defender even said they knew if they could stop the run Prescott wouldn't be able to beat them.  Because of this, Dallas is 24th in the league in yards rushing per game.  Arizona is 8th against the run.  The Cowboys have lost four straight ATS on the road. Meanwhile, Bruce Arians is 9-1 ATS as a home dog of seven points or less and 6-0 as a home dog of three points or less.  We believe the Cardinals have the talent in place to control this contest and we'll grab the points.  Arizona is our MNF Showdown.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the LA Chargers on Sunday.  The KC Chiefs simply don't fit the mode of a team that wins more than 8 or 9 games, but here they are at 2-0.  KC has been one of the most fortunate teams in the NFL the last two seasons, including garnering a league-best 30 takeaways going into this season.  They've also hovered around the top of the list in non-offensive touchdowns.  KC led New England 28-27 in week-1 with the Patriots driving, possessing the football near the KC 40. New England was stopped on downs and a few mistakes later and they fell victim. Last weekend, the Chiefs were out-gained by 62 yards, but beat the Eagles, 27-20. We feel the good fortune catches up this week against a Chargers' team that's two missed FGs away from a potential 2-0 record, themselves.  The talent is in place for Philip Rivers to lead his team to a decent season, but they need to stop the bleeding here.  LAC normally starts well, currently on an 11-4-2 ATS September run despite this year's 0-1-1 ATS start.  We'll back them here.  I'm taking the points with the Chargers on Sunday, our AFC West Beatdown.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Buffalo Bills on Sunday.  Not an easy trip for Denver.  The Broncos are off the big win over Dallas, blowing out the Cowboys. They hung on against AFC West rival the LA Chargers in week-1, and the Broncos have a home date with another AFC West opponent next week when the Oakland Raiders roll into Denver.  The Broncos can be forgiven if their heads aren't completely focused on the Bills.  Buffalo can run the football and they have been outstanding on defense thus far, holding their first two opponents to a grand total of 21 points.  The Bills are second in the NFL in total yards allowed, equally strong against the pass and the run.  We believe they'll slow down the Denver ground game and force Trevor Siemian to win the game with his arm, something he hasn't had to do yet.  Buffalo is on a 15-7 SU & 14-8 ATS run at home with Tyrod Taylor at QB. The Bills have covered four straight meetings with Denver.  We're backing the Buffalo Bills plus the points, our DogPound on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the NY Giants on Sunday.  The G-Men have played a decent brand of defense in weeks one and two and we expect a solid outing here. In fact, we expect a better job at slowing the run.  The Eagles have some offensive line issues in this matchup. They're also banged-up on defense, especially hurting their depth at safety and corner.  As far as the Giants are concerned, dropped passes and the play of OLT Ereck Flowers have hurt the offense.  But the Giants are addressing the issue and will give Flowers more help in pass blocking.  I expect the best game of the season from the passing game now that ODB is healthier and Brandon Marshall steps up his game after a bad drop against the Lions that could have tied the game in the second half. Despite the issues, Eli Manning has completed 73% of his passes thus far. We note that the Giants are 10-2 ATS after rushing for less than 100 yards in two straight games and 4-0 ATS the last three seasons when rushing for 75 or fewer yards in two straight.  And best of all is the line adjustment in our favor.  If this game was played two weeks ago, the Eagles would have been a one-point favorite, according to my contact at CGT books in Las Vegas.  The Giants are 11-3-1 ATS off a double digit home loss and we like that trend to continue in a positive direction.  I'm taking the points with the NY Giants, our Shocker.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm grabbing the points with the 49ers on Thursday night.  The Rams opened the season well with a win over the rudderless Colts who were playing their first game of the season without Andrew Luck, and even worse, with Scott Tolzien behind center.  Things didn't go so well last week for the Rams when their run defense was torched for 229 yards on 5.8 yards per carry by the Redskins.  We do believe SFO will be able to run the football after watching Carlos Hyde have his way with the tougher Seattle defense.  Hyde ran for 124 yards on 15 carries.  In fact, if SFO receivers hung onto the football, the Niners likely enter this one off a win over Seattle. Instead, SFO has scored just 12 points on four FGs in two games.  But NFL teams are on a 34-11 ATS run if they scored less than 10 points in back-to-back games, averaging 24 ppg in those 45 contests.  SFO is also on a 4-0 ATS run within the NFC West, while the Rams enter on a 1-8 ATS slide in their last nine games after last week's loss.  I'm backing the Niners in a spot where I believe they'll find success on the ground. SFO plus the points is our Thursday Hammer.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Miami Dolphins, our DogPound Crusher.  The Dolphins were off last week due to Hurricane Irma, but they handled it as well as a team could spending quite a bit of time on the west coast, now acclimated to their situation.  They practiced all week in Los Angels and Oxnard and should be fresh but ready to go.  We expect Jay Cutler to play like he did the last time he was under the tutelage of Adam Gase, which turned out to be his finest season as a pro. We also expect the Dolphins' offense to be able to control the game just like Denver did on Monday night.  The Chargers open their new soccer digs, but covered just 5 of their last 21 home games before this season.  They're also on a 0-5-1 ATS slide in their last six games.  I'm taking the points with the Dolphins, our week-2 DogPound.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Bears on Sunday.  Tampa Bay had last week's game postponed and had to deal with a lot of off the field issues due to Hurricane Irma.  But the main reason we're playing the other side in this one is because we aren't as enamored with the Buccaneers' offense as most.  Jameis Winston threw 33 INTs over the last two seasons and his turnover-worthy-throws keep him far from the top starting QBs in the league according to PFF.  The starting offense was stuck in neutral this preseason, the offensive line is mediocre at best, and Winston won't have RB Doug Martin, who is serving a suspension.  John Fox has revamped his secondary and we believe they'll matchup very well with the Buccs' offense.  Fox-coached teams are on a 10-2 ATS run on the road after allowing at least 300 yards passing in their previous game, the situation here. Offensively, the Bears will play ball control, running behind a stout offensive line, taking pressure off the passing game.  Chicago's also on a 6-2 ATS run overall, while Tampa has been a slow starter, covering just 3 of their last 12 September games.  I'm taking the points with the Bears, our Road Warrior.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Steelers on Sunday.  Pittsburgh was a little rusty on offense last week and it was no surprise as Le'Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant finally got on the field with Big Ben.  I expect the offense to be in gear against Minnesota.  While the Vikings were the better team in their MNF win over New Orleans, let's also remember they allowed four drives of 73 yards or more and four drives of a dozen plays or more to an offense without Brandon Cooks (Patriots) and without Willie Snead (suspension), while playing with a rookie at OLT.  Meanwhile, the fierce Steeler defense will face a banged-up QB in Sam Bradford, who is suffering from knee issues heading into Sunday. Minnesota has covered just one of their last six road games and we'll back the chalk here.  I'm laying the points with the Steelers, our Best Bet KO.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the LA Chargers on Monday night.  We like the way the Chargers' offensive line matches up against the battered and bruised Denver defensive front.  LAC will test deep waters at times in this one, but it's no secret the Chargers want to establish the run and the use of TE Hunter Henry.  We feel they have the advantage in both with LB Brandon Marshall struggling last season in yards allowed after contact, ranked 51st out of 60 qualified LBs in run-stop percentage, as reported.  We also note that Henry should create major problems for Denver over the middle. LAC also has an advantage when Denver has possession of the football.  We especially like the Chargers front-line matched-up against Denver rookie OLT Garett Bolles, who has major potential, but we expect to be a liability for the Broncos tonight.  We believe the Bolts have the edge on both sides of the line of scrimmage and they have been at their money-making best in the situations they're in tonight.  LAC have covered five straight week-one games and they're on a 10-4 ATS run on the road.  Speaking of the road, the visiting team in this series is 10-3-1 ATS the last 14 meetings.  We're backing the Chargers, our MNF Showdown.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Titans on Sunday.  The Raiders are once again one of the hottest tickets in Las Vegas sports books as the public cannot get enough of them.  However, Tennessee is one of the teams on our most improved list.  Tennessee won eight of their final 12 games last season, including wins over the Broncos, Chiefs, and Packers and they've suffered 11 defeats by eight points or less over the last two seasons, coming close to a postseason berth with last year's 9-7 SU mark.  The offensive line has been bolstered in the off-season, while the defense gains needed talent and experience in the secondary with Logan Ryan and Johnathan Cyprien signing on. Offensively, QB Marcus Mariota already owned protection and a decent ground game and the WR corps just got more diverse and deeper with the selection of Corey Davis with the 5th pick in the 2017 draft.  Oakland is a squad that could challenge in the AFC this season, but we feel they're overvalued from a betting standpoint and their leaky defense will be exploited in week-one. I'm laying the points with the Titans on Sunday, our Knockout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday.  While the Cardinals disappointed last year and finished below .500, it wasn't much of a debate that they were actually a better team than the Lions.  Detroit made the postseason, but finished with a negative points differential, while Arizona averaged 3.5 ppg more than they allowed. Arizona is healthy on both sides of the line for this one, while the Lions' defense is an absolute mess with six players ruled out due to injuries and suspensions. The biggest loss is DE Kerry Hyder.  The Lions also lost OT Taylor Decker, who was expected to be a key cog up front.  The Cards have been "money" in the early going of late, covering six of their last eight September games.  Detroit enters on a 5-game ATS losing streak. These teams met four straight years from 2012 through 2015 and while some names have changed, the Cardinals won and covered all four, including a 42-17 win in Detroit two seasons ago.  We're betting Arizona makes it five straight. I'm laying the points with the Cardinals, my week-1 Smackdown.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Patriots, my Main Event on Sunday.  Casual NFL fans point to an improved defense when they talk about Pittsburgh's chances this weekend, but I'm not buying. The Steelers aren't bad, obviously.  But twice each this season the defense faced the Browns, Ravens, and Bengals, while also facing the Giants & Jets on one occasion each. That's eight games against teams that ranked 21st to 31st in scoring.  The Steelers allowed 27 in a regular season loss to the Patriots and 30 points in a loss at Miami with a healthy Ryan Tannehill at QB.  The playoff rematch came against Matt Moore.  And a game against Indy is misleading, because the Colts were forced to use Tolzien & McAfee at QB with Andrew Luck sidelined.  I expect the Patriot offense to attack the Steeler defense, topping 30 points. Eventually, I don't believe the Steelers will be able to keep up. The Pats enter on a 14-3 ATS winning run and they're on a 25-9-2 ATS run at home where they've won 33 of their last 37 outright.  Finally, New England is 7-1 ATS this season against teams that allow at least 5.65 yards per play. Pittsburgh fits the bill.  I'm laying the points with the Patriots, my Main Event.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the KC Chiefs, my Knockout on Sunday.  Pittsburgh got "just what the doctor ordered," in the wildcard round last weekend.  They took on a Dolphins' team with a backup QB and injuries to the secondary, including Byron Maxwell.  But this is certainly not an ideal situation. The Steelers roll into Arrowhead with some bumps & bruises of their own, including Ben Roethlisberger, who's ankle is and could be an issue.  Pittsburgh has been a little shaky on the road this season, losing to Baltimore, Miami, and Philadelphia, including 15 point and 31 point losses to the Dolphins & Eagles. Four of their road wins came against the Browns, the Colts (without Andrew Luck), the Bills, and the Bengals.  KC has won six of eight at home this season and are on a 5-1 ATS run, overall.  The Chiefs lost to Pittsburgh in blowout fashion in early October, but caught the Steelers off a 34-3 loss to Philly, their worst loss in 27 years.  KC is more dangerous now, able to throw downfield better than in recent years.  And we have an Andy Reid-coached team off a bye, where he's 19-2 SU.  His teams are 16-6 ATS in all games he's coached following a bye week, winning by an average margin of 10 ppg.  Meanwhile, the Steelers have covered just 14 of 38 road games off a home win under Mike Tomlin.  I'm backing the KC Chiefs, my NFL Knockout.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Atlanta Falcons, my Main Event on Saturday. Too much offense for the Seahawks to handle without Earl Thomas in the defensive backfield.  We also have Matt Ryan and his strong home TD-INT ratio of 19 scores and only 4 picks, while Russell Wilson has not fared quite so well through the air on the road, with as many INTs as TD passes (8).  In fact, Wilson has just 2 TD passes with 7 INTs in his last three road games.  We also have a situation where ATL HC Dan Quinn knows quite a bit about defending the Seahawk offense.  Quinn was the assistant HC & defensive line coach for Pete Carroll in 2009-2010 and returned as Seattle's defensive coordinator in 2013-2014 before taking the job in Atlanta.  Seattle ranks just 25th in yards rushing per game, the offensive line has had issues, and I expect a tough outing for the Seattle offense, overall.  I also expect this game to be about the Falcon offense, one of the best in the NFL, taking it to the Seattle defense.  ATL OC Kyle Shanahan will allow Matt Ryan to take advantage of the less than 100% Seahawk defensive backfield.  Seattle beat Atlanta 26-24 in October, but the Seahawks were at home off a bye, while the Falcons were off a road win in Denver.  We note the Falcons out-gained Seattle by 50 yards and led by seven with 5 minutes to go in the game, but ultimately couldn't overcome a minus-2 turnover ratio.  I'm betting ATL gets their revenge by a spread covering margin.  I'm laying the points with the Falcons, my Main Event. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Packers on Sunday.  We know about Eli Manning's success in Green Bay and the fact the Giants' secondary has been the strength of the team.  But Aaron Rodgers is on fire, not simply because he's found another gear, but because it took until after the midway point of the season for Jordy Nelson to finally overcome last year's injury and the Pack found a running game, thanks mainly due to Ty Montgomery.  I do believe the Packer offense will end up being too much for the Giants to match.  This is also the Giants third straight road game and the offense has been held in-check virtually all season, but especially in their last five games.  I know about the Giants' playoff road success, but that's stuff that happened a few years ago.  Most recently, this team is 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record.  The Pack is on a 4-0 wildcard spread run and they're on a 5-1 ATS run, overall. I'm laying the points with the Packers on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Houston on Saturday.  Connor Cook gets his first NFL start when the Oakland Raiders take the field on Saturday.  While we like Cook's upside, this is simply too tall a task in our opinion.  When Derek Carr was healthy, his leadership and ability, combined with Oakland's offensive weaponry was so strong, it masked all the issues on defense. The mask is off, however, and the Raider defensive woes have been revealed.  Houston's defense is a tough nut to crack, ranked 2nd in defending the pass and #1 in the NFL, holding opponents to 301 total yards per game.  And let's not fail to mention Houston is 7-1 SU at home this season.  Brock Osweiler has been a disappointment in Houston, but he and the offense get "just what the doctor ordered" when they face the permissive Raider defense.  The Texans are on a 14-5 ATS run when laying points under HC O'Brien.  Oakland won the meeting in November, 27-20.  But we believe the Texans will win the important meeting on Saturday.  I'm laying the points with the Texans, my Main Event.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Oakland Raiders on Sunday. No Derek Carr for the Raiders, so Matt McGloin will line-up behind center. The good news for the Raiders is that McGloin will still have the terrific offensive line, strong RBs, and outstanding WR corps to work with, that doesn't change a bit.  I do believe the troops will rally and pick up the slack for their injured signal caller.  The Raiders ran all over the Broncos in their 30-20 win in early November and this Bronco defense is suffering from numerous bumps & bruises.  Oakland still has a lot to play for with the AFC West title on the line and we feel they'll come away with the division crown in-hand.  Oakland enters on a 9-1 ATS road run, while Denver is on a 1-6 ATS slide within the division.  Finally, the Raiders are on a 7-2-1 ATS run in Denver.  I'm backing the Oakland Raiders, my KO on Sunday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the 49ers on Saturday, my Top Dog Shocker!  It's been a while since SFO won a football game...week-1 to be exact and the opponent was the L.A. Rams.  The Niners won 28-0.  There have been a lot of changes on both sidelines since that September contest.  One of the changes came at QB, where Jared Goff continues to learn the difference between the speed of the NFL and what he saw in college.  Goff is a little banged-up (concussion), but he is expected to start for the Rams on Saturday.  While both teams have struggled at least SFO can count on a top-notch running game.  In fact, Carlos Hyde is just 50 yards from reaching 1,000 yards rushing on the season.  We also note that SFO QBs have thrown just one interception in their last six games, so they're not likely to give the Rams any "freebies" in this one.  The Rams have dropped five in a row ATS and we note NFL road non-favorites are on a 52-23 ATS run in the second half of the season, provided they've lost at least seven straight games.  I'm grabbing the points with the 49ers, my Top Dog Shocker on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Jaguars, my Hammer release.  We cashed with the Titans as our NFL Dog of the Month last weekend.  Tennessee came through after falling behind early to KC, but this isn't an easy spot for the Titans. Not only are they off the come from behind win against the Chiefs, but they now have the added pressure of knowing they can win their division if they win out. The Titans are also not used to laying this many points.  In fact, they're on a 0-6-1 ATS multi-season slide when laying more than 3 points, including 0-3 ATS in this situation this season.  The Jaguars may be losing games, but they're still playing hard.  Five of their last seven games have been decided by one score. They'll also come in with a clean slate after the firing of HC Gus Bradley. Look for the Jags to respond under interim-HC Doug Marrone and at the very least, hang this number.  I'm grabbing the points with Jacksonville, my Hammer release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Chicago Bears on Sunday, my DogPound Crusher. No one has quit in the Bears' locker room and that includes QB Matt Barkley and RB Jordan Howard.  We expect both to have a big game against a Redskins' defense ranked in the bottom-third in most important categories.  Chicago's defense is playing the better brand of football, overall, and the Bears have covered five straight.  Washington has failed to cover any of their last four off a double-digit home loss and we feel the loss last week was a back-breaker.  Finally, under HC John Fox, the Bears are on an 8-0 ATS run against offenses that average at least 5.65 yards per play. Fox and company have done a great job at preparing their defense for offensive attacks like the one Washington will present.  I'm grabbing the points with the Bears, my DogPound Crusher.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Redskins on Monday, my KO release.  The Skins are in the playoff hunt and come home following a 27-22 win over the Eagles, snapping a 2-game losing streak. While they run the football pretty well (13th in the NFL) they love to put their trust in QB Kirk Cousins and the passing game.  The Skins average over 300 yards passing per game, which is 2nd best in the league.  Tonight, Washington gets the porous Carolina pass defense that allows a league-worst 272.4 yards passing per contest.  Panther LB Luke Kuechly is listed as questionable tonight, but we don't mind if he plays.  We note that the Skins are 7-0 ATS in the second half of this season and last when facing a defense that allows at least 235 yards passing per game. Washington outscored those seven teams by an average of 34-22.  I believe Carolina is going to have to play "keep-up" in this one, and with Cam Newton banged-up and the struggles of this team in general, I'm betting they won't be able to hang around.  The Panthers are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 road games, while the Skins are on an 8-2 ATS run against teams with a losing record.  We'll lay it with the Redskins, our Monday KO.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Raiders on Sunday, my KO release.  Analytics guys have not been too crazy about Oakland this season.  I get it.  Their defensive numbers don't always look too hot. But the offense has been tremendous most weeks and I expect Derek Carr and company to bounce back from last week's loss in KC with a big game in SDG.  They'll face a Chargers' defense that allows nearly 27 ppg and ranks 25th against the pass.  And SDG is too one-dimensional on offense to take advantage of Oakland...losing Melvin Gordon certainly doesn't help. Meanwhile, Philip Rivers has been struggling, throwing as many INTs (10) as TD passes over the last four games. Oakland enters on an 8-1 ATS run on the road, while the Chargers have covered just 3 of their last 13 at home against teams with a winning road record.  I'm laying the points with the Raiders, my Knockout GOW.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Broncos on Sunday afternoon.  Obviously, this is a bigger game for Denver than New England, even with the Patriots looking to avenge last year's sweep and hoping to claim top-spot in the AFC.  Denver has a few bumps & bruises to the LB corps, but owns the schemes in pass defense to keep Tom Brady in-check. Denver is 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games.  They're 3-0 SU/ATS at home against the Pats since January 2014, holding the Patriots to an average of 19 ppg.  And while New England has been a road warrior, the Broncos continue to play well this time of year, entering on a 13-6 ATS December run.  I'm grabbing the points with the Broncos, my DogPound on Sunday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Tennessee Titans, my NFL Dog of the Month. Kansas City found a way to win again last week. But the Chiefs' defense is 27th against the run and 27th in total yards allowed per game.  Their games almost always are decided late and in fact, their last six games have been decided by a grand total of 22 points. Tennessee has turned things around under HC Mike Mularkey and they're the playoff hunt thanks to a 6-3 SU run.  The Titans's strength plays right into KC's weakness in this one. Tennessee knows how to run the football effectively, ranked 3rd in the NFL in yards rushing per game.  And last but not least, the Chiefs are in a tough spot...a "sandwhich spot," as we call them.  KC is off the win over Oakland and they have another divisional foe, Denver up next.  KC has covered just 2 of their last 9 home games.  I'm grabbing the points with the Titans, my Underdog Game of the Month.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Green Bay Packers, my DogPound Crusher.  The underdog is on a 10-3-1 ATS run in Packer games and we expect that trend to continue.  Two weeks ago, Seattle scored just 5 points in a 14-5 loss to Tampa Bay.  So, while many are singing the praises of the Seahawk attack off the 40-7 win over Carolina, I'm not quite sold.  They did that against the 30th ranked pass defense in the NFL and the task gets a little tougher this week.  I don't believe you'll see Seattle moving the ball up and down the field this week.  What I do believe will happen is continued success for Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson, who looks like he is finally back to 100%. Rodgers has completed 50 of his last 69 passes (72%) for 522 yards, 4 TDs and 0 INTs.  The Pack offense will face a Seattle defense without Earl Thomas (IR) and I believe that's a bigger deal than even some around the NFL are making it out to be.  We also have a Seattle team with a 3-game divisional lead, while it's virtually now or never time for the Pack.  Green Bay has been "money" in December under HC Mike McCarthy, going 28-15 ATS, including a current 6-1 ATS run.  They're also 10-2 ATS against teams that hold the opposition to an average of no more than 17 ppg. McCarthy has solved solid defenses more often than not in his stay in Green Bay.  I'm betting he'll do it again.  I'm taking the points with the Packers, my DogPound on Sunday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Falcons my Main Event on Sunday.  Atlanta has had a chance for a little separation in the division, but have lost two of their last three, including last week's heartbreaking loss to the KC Chiefs. ATL actually gained 32 first downs to 17 for KC, but couldn't overcome a pick-6 and a pick-2.  But the NFL's #1 offense gets "just what the doctor ordered" in this one against a Rams' defense that has shown leaks the last two weeks allowing over 950 yards and 75 points.  Jeff Fisher's offense isn't much better and inserting rookie QB Jared Goff hasn't boosted the sluggish attack.  We note that NFL home teams with a losing record and off two straight road losses are just 20-42 ATS.  And while the Falcons are 5-1 ATS on the road this season, the Rams are on a 1-6-1 ATS slide in their last eight home games.  I'm laying the points with the Falcons, my Main Event. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Redskins on Sunday, my Road Warrior.  Washington has dropped two straight, including the loss last week to Arizona.  They could use a win to inch closer to a wildcard playoff spot and while Kirk Cousins didn't have a great game last week, he's certainly been much better than his counterpart.  Carson Wentz looks to have hit the rookie-wall.  Wentz has thrown 10 INTs in his last seven outings.  Philly is a far cry from where they were when they began the season 3-0.  The Eagles have dropped seven of their last nine and the defense has allowed 26 or more points in five of their last six games.  And while the Skins enter on an 8-2 ATS run, the Eagles are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games.  The Skins have also covered 5 straight in this series. I'm laying the short number with the Washington Redskins, my Road Warrior. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Oakland Raiders on Thursday night, my KO release. The Raiders have been money on the road, having covered 10 of their last 11 and we expect the Raider offense to be the difference in this one once again.  Oakland's defense leaves something to be desired, but KC doesn't own the offense that gains a lot of separation.  They plod their way through games and give them credit, Andy Reid and Alex Smith have worked together well to win nine of 12 games this season.  The KC defense has their issues, in the bottom-third against both the run and pass and 29th in the league in total yards allowed per game. Look for the red-hot Raider offense to pull away in this one.  KC enters on a 1-7 ATS slide at home and the Raiders are on an 8-2 ATS run at Arrowhead. I'm taking the points with the Raiders, my KO release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, my DogPound Crusher.  The Buccs allowed 43 points in a 15-point loss to Atlanta to open the month of November.  But since then, the Buccaneers have been red-hot on the defensive side of the football, holding their last three opponents to a grand total of just 32 points, including last weekend when they held Seattle to 5 points.  The Buccs held the three opponents to an average of just 290 total yards per game, while the pass defense has 5 INTs, allowing just 2 TDs.  Meanwhile, Jameis Winston has been taking care of the football, throwing 14 TD passes in his last 7 games with just 3 INTs.  The Chargers won last week, but were outgained by 51 yards in a 21-13 win over the Texans. They took advantage of 4 Houston turnovers and a +3 turnover margin. SDG has covered just 2 of their last 10 off a win and they're 3-9 ATS at home against teams with a winning road record.  Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU/ATS away from home.  I'm taking the points with the Buccaneers, my DogPound Crusher.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Buffalo Bills, my Underdog KO.  Tough spot for the Oakland Raiders, who continue to win games despite a lot of fundamental flaws on the defensive side of the football.  The Raiders are off the hard-fought win over Carolina last week after blowing a 17-point halftime lead, then coming from behind after trailing 32-24 with less than nine minutes left in the fourth quarter.  Oakland has been "living right," with 1-point wins over the Saints & Ravens, 3-point wins over Carolina and San Diego, and an OT win over Tampa Bay.  It'll be interesting to see how effective the offense is this week, facing the Bills' stingy pass defense.  Meanwhile, Oakland ranks 26th against the run and 28th against the pass.  This is the type of defense Tyrod Taylor should enjoy facing.  Finally, NFL home teams have covered just 10 of their last 44 when the line is in the +3/-3 range and they're off a win, while failing to cover as chalk.  Also, Oakland is just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. I'm grabbing the points with the Bills, my Underdog Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, my Road Warrior.  Philly hasn't had it easy since their 3-0 start to the season, but they're getting "just what the doctor ordered" in this one. The Eagles need to be able to run the football for the offense to operate at its best and Cincy's weak run defense is exactly what they need to get back on track.  Once the Eagles begin moving the ball on the ground, Carson Wentz can get back to the ball control passing game he ran early in the season.  Meanwhile, the Cincinnati offense is banged-up and have scored 20 or fewer points in seven of their last 10 games.  The Eagles enter on a 9-1 ATS run against AFC opponents, while the Bengals are 0-6 ATS this season when the line is in the +3/-3 range as it is today.  I'm backing the Eagles, my Road Warrior.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday night.  We know about the situations that point against the Cowboys on Thursday, but this obviously is a different Cowboy edition. Dallas not only has a QB with 18 TD passes and just 2 INTs, but the running game is fantastic. Ezekiel Elliott has been nothing short of outstanding and while the Viking defense has played well again this season, the fact is, they're middle of the pack against the run.  Once Dallas flexes their running game muscle, Dak Prescott and the passing game should find enough openings to gain the SU and ATS win.  Dallas has had problems against decent passing games, but 1) Minnesota doesn't own a decent passing game, and 2) it sure hasn't hurt Dallas in the win/loss column.  As far as Minnesota is concerned, they have won just one of their last six games, and the win over Arizona happened thanks to a 100-yard pick-6 and a 104-yard kickoff return for a TD.  The offense gained just 217 total yards in the win.  Dallas is on a 9-1 ATS run, overall, and they're on 5-0 SU/ATS on the road this season.  Meanwhile, Minnesota's spread magic has hit the skids, dropping five of their last six ATS.  I'm laying the points with the Cowboys on Thursday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Chiefs on Sunday night.  KC doesn't often disappoint on the road.  In fact, Andy Reid-coach teams have been true road warriors in the second half of the season under his direction, going 47-29 ATS.  His Chiefs enter this one on a 4-0 ATS run off a cover.  We expect the Chiefs' defense to set the tone in this one, facing a pedestrian Bronco attack.  Meanwhile, the KC offense should find room to run against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, setting up KC's conservative passing game.  The road team has been the way to go in this series, covering five straight and we'll go the way of the roadie tonight.  I'm grabbing the points with the Chiefs, my Sunday Slam.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.  

I'm taking the points with the NY Jets, my Top Shocker on Sunday.  This is a classic Sharps/Squares clash in Las Vegas sports books and we're siding with the sharp money, although that's not the reason we are on the dog.  This series has been ultra close with the Jets on a 5-0-1 ATS run.  Each of the last six meetings were decided by 7 or fewer points and four of the games were decided by no more than a field goal. Ryan Fitzpatrick gets the start on Sunday after throwing 5 TD passes with no INTs in last year's two meetings. The Jets certainly have the running game and receivers to keep this one close.  Meanwhile, I do believe the Jets and their 4th ranked run defense will keep New England in-check.  New York has bounced back well at home off a home loss, currently on an 18-5 ATS run in this spot.  I'm grabbing the points with the Jets, my Top Shocker on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the SDG Chargers, my Situational KO on Sunday.  Houston's obviously in a tough spot, having lost in the most frustrating of ways on Monday night in Mexico City. The problem with Houston is their one-dimensional offense, able to run the ball for the most part, but with one of the worst passing offenses in the NFL. Brock Osweiler is completing less than 60% of his passes with 12 TDs and 10 INTs.  SDG's defensive strength is their run defense and they're connecting for over 275 yards passing per game on offense.  We note that the Chargers six losses have come by a grand total of just 29 points, virtually in every single game.  The Bolts are on a 9-2 ATS run on the road and they're on a 9-1 ATS run off a SU loss.  Big situational advantage for the road team and we'll back the SDG Chargers, our Situational KO.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Vikings on Thursday, my KO release.  We had the Vikings this past Sunday and cashed the ticket when they snapped their four-game losing streak with a 30-24 win over Arizona.  It wasn't your classic way to 30, getting their with a pick-6 and a kick-off return for a TD, but I do believe it's the type of win that will get this team back on track, at least for another week.  The Viking defense was outstanding again, holding the Cardinals to 290 yards on 4.39 yards per play.  Detroit has no running game to keep the Vikings' honest and that spells trouble for the Lions' middle of the pack passing game, also. And while they have won five of their last six games, they're 20 points away from a nine-game losing streak.  Detroit has won two games by more than four points all season, one of those was a seven-point win and the other, a six-point win over these Vikings came in OT.  The Vikings head into this one on a 6-1 ATS run on the road against teams with a winning home record, while the Lions are on a 3-9 ATS divisional slide. Finally, the dog has covered five of the last six meetings.  I'm grabbing the points with the Vikings my NFC North Knockout.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Green Bay Packers on Sunday night.  Aaron Rodgers directed his squad to a 35-18 win in DC last January, and while some are calling for the Skins to exact revenge, I believe it'll be a case of Rodgers and company avoiding a fourth straight poor showing and loss. Rodgers still owns the NFL's 6th best Total QBR this season, which is six spots higher than Kirk Cousins.  The offense has scored nearly 28 ppg during their three-game skid, but they need to stay away from turnovers and the defense needs to pick it up.  Reinforcements may be on their way. While he's officially listed as questionable, Clay Matthews was expected to return as of Friday night/Saturday morning, according to reports from trustworthy Green Bay outlets.  The defense allowed roughly 17 fewer ppg with Matthews on the field than they have in their last three without him.  But the bottom line, in a chance to save their season, I expect GB to win this contest with or without Matthews.  NFL road teams with a +3/-3 pointspread range are on a 45-19 ATS run after being beaten by the spread by a combined 28 or more points in their last three games.  The Pack are also on a 7-3 ATS road run.  I'm grabbing the points with Green Bay, my Sunday Smash. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Rams, my Smackdown on Sunday.  Miami is getting some praise around the NFL right now, having won four straight games to push the season record to 5-4. While we give them credit for beating the opponents in front of them, they haven't exactly faced a murderer's row. The Rams are just 4-5 SU, but they're 13 points from a 7-2 mark.  And since Jeff Fisher has been HC of the Rams, in both STL and LA, they're 12-4 ATS in the second half of the season against teams that average at least 5.65 yards per play.  They held those 16 teams to 17 ppg.  We also note that Miami has covered just 2 of their last 11 against teams with a losing record.  The Dolphins are 28th in passing yardage per game and they rank 30th against the run and we believe the Rams will take advantage on both sides of the football. Finally, NFL teams off an underdog SU win and playing .510 to .600 football, are just 21-50 ATS in the second half of the season against teams with a losing record.  I believe the Jared Goff era will get off on the winning foot.  I'm taking the points with the Rams, my Smackdown release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Vikings, my KO release on Sunday.  Minnesota has hit the skids, losing four straight games, but I believe they're getting "just what the doctor ordered" on Sunday. Arizona's once high-powered offense has been underachieving this season and has scored 20 or fewer points in four of their last seven games, then escaping with a 23-20 win over hapless SFO last week.  The Viking defense is still 6th against the pass and 3rd in total yards allowed per game. They're 3-1 SU/ATS at home this season, just an OT loss to Detroit away from a perfect home mark.  Stefan Diggs had a huge game last week in a road loss in DC and Sam Bradford has 6 TD passes and no INTs in the Vikings' new digs.  I expect the two to hook-up in this one, putting pressure on the Cardinals.  And with Bradford coming up big last week (31 of 40) they should find a little more room in the ground game.  Minnesota is on a 19-7 ATS run at home and they're 11-2 ATS against teams averaging at least 350 yards per game.  Meanwhile, the Cardinals have covered just 1 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. I'm laying the points with the Vikings, my KO Game of the Week.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Eagles, my Wipeout release on Sunday.  Carson Wentz has taken more than his share of blame for the Eagles' current 1-4 SU slide.  But the defense should carry more of the blame as far as I'm concerned.  They have not pressured opposing QBs like they were when everything was going so well.  I do expect that to change this week, facing an Atlanta offense that isn't exactly known for its quickness in completing offensive plays (I'm not the first to mention this).  I expect the Eagles pass rush to get back on track and if all goes as planned, the rest of the team's good fortunes should fall into place.  ATL is a short favorite in this one and they're just 2-11 ATS in this role the last 13 times.  Meanwhile, the Eagles are still undefeated at home where they're 3-0 SU & ATS this season.  Bounce back time here and we'll back the Eagles, my Wipeout GOW on Sunday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Carolina, my KO release.  Second week in a row we'll lay the FG with the Panthers.  Carolina has looked better on defense, especially after their bye week, helping the team to two straight wins. And let's remember, the Panthers are just seven points away from a 6-2 SU mark.  You can't run on their defense where they're third against the run.  Meanwhile, the Panther offense still owns a top-10 ground game.  And while I'm not trying to say KC isn't a good team, we do note that some of their wins came against the Chargers in OT at home, along with the Jets, Saints, Colts, and Jaguars. The Chargers are 0-3 on the road, the Jets are 3-6, overall, the Saints and Colts are average, and the Jaguars are, well, the Jaguars.  You can beat KC on the ground and I expect Carolina will do so by more than a FG.  KC enters just 1-6 ATS off a SU win, while the Panthers are on an 8-2 ATS run at home. I'm laying it with the Panthers, my KO release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Browns on Thursday night.  We know what we're getting with Cleveland and their struggles have been baked into this number.  But Baltimore is also struggling, losing four of their last five games, while last week's 21-14 win over Pittsburgh was misleading. Baltimore scored one offensive TD, a 95-yard pass/run score. The Ravens are 28th in the league running the football and not a whole lot better through the air.  The Browns have not played badly on the road at times, coming within two points of beating Tennessee and taking Miami to OT before losing by six. Now Cleveland will get double-digits ATS from a team averaging less than 20 ppg.  The Browns are on a 5-1 ATS run in Baltimore, while the Ravens are on a 1-6-1 ATS slide at home against teams with a losing record.  And finally, NFL winless teams with at least seven straight losses are 35-11 ATS as non-favorites away from home.  The Browns came within five points of Baltimore in a 25-20 loss earlier this season, fell by six in a home loss to the Ravens in last year's second meeting, and actually beat Baltimore 33-30 in OT the last time at this venue.  We expect another close game tonight.  I'm grabbing the points with the Browns, my NFL Thursday Crusher.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Chiefs on Sunday.  Nick Foles will start this one with Alex Smith sidelined by a concussion.  Also likely sidelined is Spencer Ware, but again, KC has a more than capable replacement in Charcandrick West.  Andy Reid owns the depth at key positions to keep the offense from bogging down and I expect Foles and West to flourish in this offense against the Jaguars vulnerable defense, that's 27th against the run and allows 28 ppg.  Offensively, the Jags are middle of the pack through the air and horrible on the ground.  Jacksonville has scored 17 or less in four of their last six games and 14 of their 22 points in last week's loss to Tennessee came in the final three-plus minutes of the game after falling behind 36-8.  We note that KC's defense allows just 19.6 ppg.  Gus Bradley has coached 50 games in Jacksonville, losing 38, with an offense that scores less than 19 ppg.  His teams have covered just 5 of 20 after rushing for no more than 75 yards in a game (48 last week) and KC cashed enters on a 7-2 ATS November run.  I expect another win and cover here and I'm laying the points with the Chiefs, my Knockout Blowout.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Patriots on Sunday, my KO release.  The Bills can't throw the football and can't stop the run and their one-dimensional offense scored just one TD and three FGs, in the first meeting, a 16-0 Buffalo win when Tom Brady was sidelined by suspension.  I don't believe the Bills will be able to "keep up" in this one.  Gronk is on fire, LeGarrette Blount is wearing defenses down and Brady has thrown for 1,004 yards on 75% passing since returning to the field, while throwing 8 TD passes with no INTs.  New England is on a 10-2 ATS run in Buffalo, and while revenge is an overused term in handicapping, they will be looking to exact some, and the Pats have been outstanding at doing so over the years.  Bill Belichick has coached his teams to a 35-18 ATS mark in revenge and an even better 8-0, 100% ATS if they scored less than nine points in the loss, winning those eight games by an average margin of 14 ppg. We should also note the last time the Bills beat the Pats, New England dropped 40 points on Buffalo in the next meeting and Brady passed for 466 yards with three TDs and no INTs.  I expect another case of spread covering revenge in this one.  I'm laying the points with the Patriots, my KNOCKOUT on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday.  No Big Ben for Pittsburgh, but we feel the line has been over-adjusted.  The look-ahead line in Las Vegas, made before last week's games were played and before losing Roethlisberger, was PK'm. We know what Big Ben is worth to this team, but it's not like Landry Jones is new to the offense and new to the coaching staff.  Jones was forced into action in seven games last season. He's as familiar with his surroundings as just about any backup in the league.  The talent is all around him, despite the fact DeAngelo Williams is doubtful.  Le'Veon Bell is running for more than 5 yards per carry and he's averaged 7 receptions per game since his return to the field.  Antonio Brown is lethal at wideout and Sammie Coates is one of three other outstanding targets.  New England's defense gave up 120 yards on 32 carries to Cincy last week in a 35-17 win that was closer than the final score and we believe Pittsburgh will be able to run the ball effectively enough to keep the Patriots' defense honest. Simply put -- the line has been over-adjusted in our opinion.  The Steelers are on a 4-0 ATS run off a SU loss and they're on a 14-5-2 ATS run against teams with a winning record.  Meanwhile, the Patriots have covered just one of their last five against teams with a winning record.  I'm grabbing the points with the Steelers, my Oddsmaker Error.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Chargers on Sunday, my DogPound release.  If you've been playing SDG when they venture outside of "America's Finest City," you're quite happy with your return with the Chargers on an 8-1 ATS road run.  Normally undervalued, they are again this week when they head to ATL.  The Chargers will face a Falcon team that needs a whole lot of offense, because the defense is certainly nothing special.  ATL is 26th against the pass, 24th in total yards allowed per game, and 26th in ppg allowed. This should be music to Philip Rivers' ears. The SDG QB is connecting on 67% of his passes with 12 TD tosses and just 3 INTs and his offense ranks 3rd in the league, averaging nearly 29 ppg.  Atlanta is also coming home off a tough and hard fought, 26-24 loss at Seattle, with Green Bay on deck.  We also note Atlanta has covered just four of their last 15 at home against teams with a losing road record.  I'm grabbing the points with the Chargers, my DogPound release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Titans on Sunday.  Tennessee suffered quite a bit of bad luck last season, but things are starting to turn around now that they own an offensive line that gives Marcus Mariota time to go through his progressions.  Mariota has four targets with between 17 and 24 receptions and mixes in TE usage quite well.  It also certainly helps to have a ground game with DeMarco Murray gaining 4.6 yards per carry.  Indianapolis has been horrible on the defensive side of the football, ranked 29th against the pass, 25th against the run, while allowing 29 ppg, the league's 5th most points per contest.  Indy will have a tough time keeping up if the o-line doesn't give Andrew Luck more time.  Luck has been sacked 23 times in six games and Tennessee's defense owns six sacks in each of their last two games.  I'm laying the points with the Titans, my Div. Knockout.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Seahawks on Sunday, my NFL Smackdown!  ATL is off to a great start and played extremely well in the win over Denver last week.  ATL designed an I-formation base to off-set Denver's normally strong LB play.  But that won't work against the powerful Seahawk defense and we expect Matt Ryan and the Falcon offense to suffer their worst Sunday so far this season.  Seattle enters 3rd against the pass, 7th against the run, and tops in the league in total yards allowed per game, while allowing just 13.5 ppg.  Offensively, the Seahawks had last week off, allowing Russell Wilson to get healthy, so he can rejoin the Seattle running game.  And as much as the offensive line has been maligned by the media, the passing game still ranks 11th in the NFL.  Wilson and his receivers will face the league's 27th ranked pass defense and should find little resistance, especially when TE Jimmy Graham faces off against ATL's LBs and safeties, who have struggled against opposing TEs.  We note that Seattle is on a 17-6 ATS run against defenses that allow at least 375 yards per game.  Seattle outscored those 23 opponents by an average of 12 ppg. And finally, under Pete Carroll, the Seahawks are 10-1 ATS as home chalk of 3 1/2 to 7 points, winning by an average score of 27-13.  I'm laying the points with the Seahawks, my Smackdown release. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Bengals, my DogPound release on Sunday.  The New England Patriots bounced back well last week in Tom Brady's first start of the season.  But while the Pats are 4-1 SU, they haven't exactly taken on the top teams in the NFL.  The Bengals will be the most talented passing attack New England has faced yet.  Cincy's passing game is 4th in the NFL, averaging over 286 yards per game with Andy Dalton connecting on nearly 68% of his passes.  He won't have TE Tyler Eifert, but his two backup TEs have combined for 22 receptions in 2016.  The passing ability of the Cincy offense is the difference here.  New England's last four opponents' passing games have ranked 26th, 32nd, 29th, & 24th.  Finally, Cincinnati enters on a 9-2 ATS road run and they're on a 7-2 ATS run when playing in their second of back-to-back road games.  I'm grabbing the points with the Bengals, my DogPound release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the NY Jets on Sunday.  Since Mike Tomlin has been HC of the Steelers, we have seen his team get a tad overvalued at the books, because as any Las Vegas oddsmaker will tell you, the Steelers see more public action than just about anyone in the league on a general basis.  They certainly become overvalued against teams they're "supposed" to beat.  Pittsburgh has covered just eight of 25 under Tomlin against teams that are outscored by at least 6 ppg on the season.  Making it more difficult to cover big numbers this season is a defense that ranks 30th against the pass and 27th in total yards allowed per game.  This is a defense that we believe Ryan Fitzpatrick can handle, meaning the Jets can play inside this number.  New York enters on a 5-1-1 ATS run against teams with a winning record and we'll back them here.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Lions on Sunday.  Philly is off to a great start, but did hit a speed bump last week in the form of a bye week.  This week, the Eagles will face a Detroit squad that should react well to Philly's passing game.  Carson Wentz has been outstanding out of the gate, but 54% of his passing yardage has come after the catch.  That's game management and he's not had to carry the load as of yet.  The NFL eventually catches up to these things and I expect that from Detroit's defense in this one.  I also expect Detroit's offense, even without Ebron (doubtful), to take advantage of an Eagle defense playing a cover-2, split-safety base.  We note that NFL favorites are 6-27 ATS if they're off a home underdog outright win, provided they also own a winning record on the season.  Detroit lost 17-14 to Chicago last week.  We note that the Lions are on a 12-3 ATS bounce-back run after scoring 14 or fewer points.  I'm grabbing the points with the Lions, my DogPound (contrarian) Game of the Month. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the NY Giants on Monday night.  Minnesota has suffered plenty of key injuries, but the defense has kept them ahead of the game, winning all three weeks thus far. But I believe the offense, or lack thereof, catches up to them here.  Minnesota ranks 31st in total yards per game, Sam Bradford has been sacked six times in two games, and the Vikings are dead last, averaging just 51 yards rushing per contest.  We note that road teams are on a 23-5 ATS run against their hosts, provided the home team averages no more than 70 yards rushing per game and have rushed for less than 100 yards in three straight games. Minnesota fits the bill.  The G-men expect to be healthier at the RB position this week, which means more attention will have to be paid to slowing down the ground game, giving Eli Manning and his talented WR corps more room in the passing game.  NFL road teams enter on an 18-6 ATS run after gaining at least 6.5 yards per play in their previous game.  That's the Giants...and we'll back them.  I'm grabbing the points with the NY Giants on Monday, my Showdown release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.