I'm taking the points with the St. Louis Rams on Sunday. The Dallas Cowboys' offense leaves a lot to be desired and I do believe the unit will be exposed in this matchup. Dallas was quite fortunate in week-1 when the Giants turned the ball over six times. Still, the Cowboys were unable to pull away and had to hang on for a 36-31 win. Last weekend, the offense gained just 318 total yards and the running game was non-existent. In fact, the Cowboys rank near the bottom of the league in the running game, average just 3.18 yards per carry, and that puts the onus of the offense on QB Tony Romo and the passing game, not normally conducive to winning football games. They'll face a Rams' defense that ranks 5th against the run. The Cowboys are just 4-12 ATS as home chalk under HC Garrett and they're 2-10 ATS in their last 12 at home, overall. Meanwhile, the Rams enter on a 6-1 ATS run on the road. I'm grabbing the points with the Rams on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the NY Giants on Sunday afternoon. Both teams head into this one 0-2 SU, but it's the Giants who will right the ship, in my opinion. Carolina has grown used to losing close games under the direction of HC Ron Rivera, who's once again, firmly on the hot-seat. The Panthers are 2-14 SU in games decided by 7 points or less under Rivera. Their defense is allowing over 293 yards passing per game, ranking 22nd in the league and now must face the top passing attack in the league with the Giants averaging 390.5 yards passing per contest. While Carolina is a mess on offense, the Giants simply need to hang onto the football. New York has committed 10 turnovers in two games, including six against Dallas, yet came within 5 points of beating the Cowboys in the "house that Jerry built." The Panthers enter ranked 27th in the league in total yards per game and they simply cannot pass the football, averaging just 151 yards per game. I believe Carolina is "just what the doctor ordered" for the Giants to get their first win of the season. NFL road teams with a +3/-3 line range are on a 48-19 ATS run if they gained less than 100 yards rushing in two straight games. And by the way, the Giants are 15-1 ATS after rushing for less than 100 yards in two straight games under HC Tom Coughlin. He has little trouble getting his team's attention when things are looking bleak. The same cannot be said for Ron Rivera. I'm backing the NY Giants on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Eagles on Thursday night. Kansas City is off to a 2-0 start under former Philly HC Andy Reid, but their week-2 win over Dallas wasn't as impressive as some may think. Kansas City went 77 yards on 13 plays ending in a TD with their first possession of the game. But a note I made while watching the game was that 5 of those 13 plays were QB Alex Smith runs, gaining 40 of the team's 77 yards on the drive. Following the opening possession, Dallas made the adjustments and Kansas City gained a total of just 40 yards on their next four possessions, combined, averaging just 2.67 yards per play, ending all four drives with a punt. In fact, only one drive after their opening possession went for more than 46 yards and 8 of their final 10 drives totaled just 81 yards on 33 plays, an average of just 2.45 yards per play. After scoring that first TD, the Chiefs punted the ball on 7 of their final 10 possessions. That's not the kind of offense that will keep the Eagle attack on the sideline. Philly will take advantage. Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, and LeSean McCoy are all thriving in Chip Kelly's system and they've scored 63 points in two games. And unlike last Sunday when I felt the Eagles were a bit inflated, it's the Chiefs who I believe are getting a little too much credit in week-3. The Chiefs are 1-6 ATS off a SU win and the Eagles are on a 4-0 ATS run in the series. While Reid is now on the KC sideline and Kelly is now under the headset with Philly, I believe those spots will continue to trend in the same direction. I'm laying the points with the Eagles on Thursday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the NY Giants on Sunday afternoon. I had Denver in their week-1 Thursday night blowout win over Baltimore, while passing on the Giants - Cowboys clash last Sunday night. But we saw Denver play as well as they can over the final 30 minutes of action, while it would be tough for the Giants to make any more mistakes in four quarters of play than they did in the loss to Dallas. And now, if you wish to play Denver, you're "paying for it." I, however, am grabbing the points with a Giants' squad that will want to put their six turnover nightmare behind them. Peyton's new "weapons" may be all the rave right now, but Eli Manning has a strong arsenal of his own at WR and I believe they'll have little trouble attacking and beating the Denver pass defense with consistency. Champ Bailey is expected to miss his second straight game, which is fine with us, but I'd back NYG even if he played. I have little faith in the Denver pass rush and secondary. New York piled-up 478 yards on 8.1 yards per play against Dallas, while the Giant defense held the Cowboys to 4.5 yards per play. It was all about the turnovers. When that problem is taken care of this week, I expect Eli to finally beat his big brother (0-2 SU in head-to-head meetings). The Giants are on a 9-1 ATS run after gaining at least 6.5 yards per play in their previous game, outscoring their opponents by an average margin of 9 ppg. I'm backing the underdog NY Giants, my Shocker of the Month. Thanks & GL! - Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Jacksonville Jaguars plus the points on Sunday. In a battle between teams who may be vying for the NFL's top draft pick, I'll gladly take more than a FG. I also believe the Jags are getting the better of the QB situation in this one. Blaine Gabbert is injured, so Chad Henne will get the start and that folks, is an upgrade. I'm also not a believe in Terrelle Pryor, who's receiving a lot of pats on the back for his losing performance last week against Indianapolis. Pryor ran well...because he had to, no one else could, but when the pressure of the game reached its peak, Pryor threw two costly interceptions. The Jags took the Raiders to OT in Oakland last season before losing 26-23. It was anyone's game to win despite losing Maurice Jones-Drew on Jacksonville's opening possession. This is a winnable game for the Jags and they have bounced back well ATS-wise, currently on a 6-2-1 ATS run after gaining under 250 yards in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Raiders are 0-6 ATS off a cover and 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. I'm grabbing the points with the Jags as they look to extend to 6-0 ATS against the Raiders. Jacksonville, plus points on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Houston Texans on Monday night (Sept 9). One thing is for sure about Gary Kubiak as HC of Houston - his teams are ready to go, getting out of the blocks as fast any team in the league. Houston has won and covered each of the last three years in week-1. They beat Indianapolis 34-24 as a 1-point dog in Sept 2010; beat the Colts 34-7 as a 9-point favorite in week-1 the following year; and last season, the Texans crushed Miami 30-10 to begin the season. That's an average week-1 final score of 33-14, covering by 12 ppg! I'm sure most are already aware of San Diego's injury issues at WR. They're also a mess on the offensive line and throughout their defense. Houston owns too much firepower on offense (whether RB Foster, who's probable, plays or not) and too much athleticism and talent on defense for the rebuilding Chargers to handle in this one. Houston is a contender for the AFC title in 2013, while the "Bolts" will likely be near the bottom of the league all season long. Best thing about this matchup is that it's week-1 before the line value against SDG disappears. The Texans have covered four straight Sept games, while the Chargers have dropped four straight home games ATS. Look for another strong start by Houston. I'm laying the points with the Texans, my week-1 Monday Night Smackdown. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Arizona on Sunday afternoon. This looks like a tough season for the St. Louis Rams. QB Sam Bradford isn't exactly reaching the hype he received while an Oklahoma Sooner and now he's missing Steven Jackson in the backfield and top target Danny Amendola at wideout. As much as I respect HC Jeff Fisher it's going to take time for this team to find it's offensive rhythm. Arizona should have little trouble holding the Rams' offense in-check in this one. The Cardinal defense is stout led by CB Patrick Peterson who could wreak havoc on the Rams' passing game. Bruce Arians is the new HC in Arizona. Arians is a "steal" in my opinion and should get the most from a rejuvenated Carson Palmer who comes over from Oakland. Palmer immediately inherits one of the best threats in the league in Larry Fitzgerald and will have Rashard Mendenhall to carry part of the load. NFL road non-favorites are on a 26-6 ATS run if they're facing a team that had a losing record the previous season, provided the road team played between .250 & .400 football in the previous season. The Rams enter just 1-4 ATS in their last five at home. I'm taking the points with the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, my Main Event. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. There's one reason why San Francisco is laying 1 1/2 to 2 points higher on Sunday than they were when these teams met in the playoffs and that's public perception. We'll gladly take the "extra" on the Packers. Colin Kaepernick broke on the scene in big-time fashion last season, but I suspect with the extra time to prep and having faced him in their final game last season, the Packers will crash their DE's from the corners and bring a LB over the top to slow the former Nevada signal caller down. And let's not forget that Kaepernick will be missing a couple of targets on Sunday, including Michael Crabtree. At the same time, I believe Green Bay will be able to do a better job of protecting Aaron Rodgers who doesn't need a ton of time to make things happen. Yes, Brian Bulaga is out, but they've had ample time to compensate. Green Bay is a quick starter, going 5-1 ATS in week-1 games over the last six years. They're 16-7 ATS as a road dog of 7 points or less under Mike McCarthy, averaging 26 ppg in those contests, while allowing the favorites just 22 ppg. I'm grabbing the points with the Packers on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with New England on Sunday. I'm going against the Buffalo Bills in week-1 for the second straight season. Rookie E.J. Manuel gets the start at QB for the Bills. Buffalo cleaned house in the off-season and it's going to take time for the team to jell. New HC Doug Marrone is not only coaching a team that's out-manned, but so is he. A rookie NFL HC matched up against Bill Belichick is not an ideal situation. And while some are concerned that Tom Brady doesn't have enough weaponry around him I believe he and the offense will be just fine. Let's not forget how well Brady fared seven years ago when the top receiver going into that season was Reche Caldwell. The Patriots like to use a lot of pre-snap movement with their TE's, but Aaron Hernandez is in jail and Rob Gronkowski is recovering from injury. But the Pats landed a good one in former Nevada TE Zach Sudfeld, who has the attention of the Patriots' coaching staff. With Sudfeld, the Patriots can still run their full array of schemes on the offensive side of the ball. The Patriots have won 18 of the last 19 meetings. They're on a 6-1 SU (5-1-1 ATS run) in Buffalo where they've won by an average of 24 ppg. More of the same in my book. I'm laying the big points with the Patriots on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Carolina on Sunday. Cam Newton has revenge on his mind after suffering one of his most frustrating games of his career in a 16-12 loss to Seattle last season. But it's more than just personal revenge. Carolina looks poised to make a playoff run in 2013 and they're catching the Seahawks at the right time. Seattle will be missing key players on defense, including sack-masters Chris Clemens and Cliff Avril. Carolina brings talented skill players to the mix and I believe they're going to prove too strong for the banged-up Seattle defense. Seattle also has a home date with San Francisco next Sunday night and that game means much more to the Seahawks than this one. The Panthers finished last season on a 4-0 ATS run. Meanwhile, Seattle is 0-6 ATS in road games during the first month of the season with Pete Carroll as HC. That's a combined 10-0, 100% ATS mark. I'm grabbing the points with Carolina on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Denver on Thursday night. That 1/2 a point on the 7 is going to make Baltimore too tempting for some, but I'm not going to be swayed. Denver is in much better shape for this game than the new-look Ravens. Yes, Denver suffered offensive line issues this summer, but they've had more than enough time to correct any problems. Same can be said for the injury to Champ Bailey...it's not like it happened yesterday. The Broncos have added pieces to the offense to make life a little bit easier for Peyton Manning and this is his offense to do with what he wishes. That spells trouble for a Baltimore defense with a lot of new faces and missing parts. Baltimore was not the best team in the NFL in 2012, they were simply the hottest team when it mattered most. And if not for a Bronco defensive breakdown late in the playoff game, the Ravens would not have advanced, let alone win the Super Bowl. I'm not a big revenge guy, I just believe Denver is in a very strong situation, while Baltimore will be hard-pressed to begin the new season like they finished the last. The defense, which was better last year than it is to begin 2013, allowed 5 more ppg in 2012 than it did in 2011. They allowed Denver over 530 yards of offense and 30 first downs in the playoff game. There's a lot of work to be done to this unit and kicking things off against the Denver offense is not going to be easy. Denver is loaded on offense and the Ravens simply won't be able to "keep up" in my opinion. The Broncos enter on a 10-2 ATS run in their last 12 as chalk, averging 32 ppg while allowing 17 ppg. They also finished last season on a 4-1 ATS run. I'm laying the points with the Denver Broncos on Thursday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the 49ers on Sunday. There's not a lot to be said about this game that hasn't already been stated. But the bottom line for me is that Baltimore's defense will have too much trouble slowing down the 49er offense. Spy on Colin Kaepernick and running lanes open for RBs. Fill the running lanes and the Raven defense will be in trouble against Kaepernick's running ability. Offensively, Baltimore has taken advantage of opponent's mistakes to reach the Super Bowl. SFO's predominant man coverage and excellent tackling will be tough to throw against and I expect Joe Flacco to struggle. Add it up and we have a play on the favorite. San Francisco is on a 25-11-1 ATS run. And since Jim Harbaugh took over, the 49ers are 24-7-1 SU. And finally, underdogs of 3 1/2 to 10 points are 9-30 ATS if they're off consecutive road wins, provided they and their opponents have winning records. I'm laying the points with the 49ers on Sunday.

I'm also playing the Over in the contest.

Super Bowl props include: Ray Rice Under 17 1/2 carries.

Bernard Pierce Over 7 carries.

Joe Flacco to throw and interception = yes.

Total points score by the 49ers: Over 24 1/2

Thanks & GL! - Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with New England in Sunday's AFC Championship. The Baltimore Ravens have made it to the conference title game, but they haven't been getting it done on the defensive side in the postseason, or for most of the regular season either. The Ravens' defense gave up 35 points, 30 first downs, and was on the field for 84 plays in last week's double-OT win over Denver. They allowed 25 first downs and 419 yards to Indianapolis, on a whopping 84 plays in the wildcard round. That's 168 offensive plays the Raven defense has faced the the last two weekends. And let's not forget they allowed 23, 34, and 31 points in three of their final four regular season contests. Even without Ron Gronkowski, the Patriots should have little trouble moving the football and scoring points. After all, the Pats went 4-1 in the five games Gronkowski missed during the season. The Pats average a league-best 427.9 total yards per game. They own the league's 4th best passing offense and they're an under-hyped 7th on the ground. New England has averaged 38.1 ppg in their last 10 games, including last weekend's 41-28 win over Houston. Bill Belichick's troops are 8-2 ATS this season as a favorite of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points this season and they're 13-4 ATS in revenge of a same season loss under Belichick (lost 31-30 in Sept). Finally, NFL home favorites of 3 1/2 to 10 points are on a 33-12 ATS run if they outgain their opponents by an average of 40 to 100 yards, provided their current opponent owns a +40/-40 average margin per game, as long as they gained at least 400 yards in their previous outing. Look for New England to put Baltimore's season and Ray Lewis' playing career to bed with a big win and cover on Sunday. I'm laying the points with the Patriots. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. The Falcons are 33-7 SU at home under the direction of HC Mike Smith and they're 33-5 SU at home with Matt Ryan at QB. The team comes in well-rested after virtually taking week-17 off against the Buccaneers and then having last week off for winning their division. But the one thing ATL has not done under Smith is win a playoff game (0-3). But this year's team is all about the passing game, led by "Matty Ice." And that's the difference in this one. The Falcons are no longer a plodding team and are now playing an uptempo aerial style which fits perfectly in the dome. Seattle has put up strong defensive numbers this season and deserve a ton of credit. But that defense looked vulnerable last weekend, falling behind 14-0 early, before RG-3 went from playing with injury, to simply being an injured player who couldn't motivate. I believe the Seahawks are going to have their share of problems against the ATL attack with DE Chris Clemens out with injury. The loss of Clemens should prove as big of a loss to the Seahawks as Brian Cushing was to the Houston Texans when he was first lost. Clemens is that important. And the talk of ATL being a soft 13-3, is without merit. In fact, one of the more impressive wins by any team this NFL season was their 34-0 pasting of a NY Giants team that was in playoff mode in December. The Falcons are 26-15 ATS under Smith with a +3/-3 line range. They're 30-19 ATS as a favorite with Smith, and 22-7 ATS off their last 29 SU losses. I'm backing the Falcons on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Denver Broncos on Saturday. I had Baltimore minus the points over Indianapolis in the wildcard round, but I'm jumping off the Ravens in this one. My play last week was as much against the Colts' offensive line and against the play of rookie Andrew Luck as it was a play ON the Ravens. As poorly as the Colts had been on offense (out-gained 408-273 previous three games) they went up and down the field against the Ravens, just failed to get the ball in the endzone, settling for three field goals. Indy actually kept possession of the football for over 37 minutes, gaining 25 first downs and 419 total yards. I expect the already weary-looking Raven defense (regular season) to feel the affect of being on the field for 87 plays (56 for Baltimore's offense) in this week's game in Denver, where they'll face a Peyton Manning no huddle attack. It sure doesn't help that the Ravens will face an offense that ranks 4th in total yards per game and 5th through the air. Add in a still underrated Denver defense that's 2nd in total yards allowed, 3rd against both the pass and the run, and 4th in points allowed per game and Baltimore is in too tough of a spot. The Ravens are on a 0-6-1 ATS slide after allowing at least 250 yards passing (allowed 288 last week) and they're 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine off a SU loss. The Broncos head into this one on a 4-0 ATS run and I expect that number to reach five straight. Denver beat Baltimore 34-17 in mid-December and I believe they'll win by a wide margin again. I'm laying the points with the Broncos on Saturday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Ravens on Sunday. The Indianapolis Colts have been the most fortunate team in the NFL this season. They have played one of the easier schedules, which has allowed them to reach the playoffs, despite being guided by a mediocre performance from rookie signal caller Andrew Luck. The Stanford grad has not been on par with RG-III or Russell Wilson...not even close. Luck went into week-17, connecting on just 48% of his passes over the previous five games. He was 46 for 96 in his previous three games and had been sacked 12 times, thanks to a leaky offensive line. Last week, Indy beat Houston, despite gaining just 265 yards. The Colts have been out-gained by an average of 408-273 in their last three games and now face an emotionally charged Baltimore squad that's on a 17-2 SU run at home. I expect the Ravens to run through the Colts' 29th ranked run defense with a steady diet of RB Ray Rice, opening things up for the passing game and eventually pulling away, winning this wildcard matchup by margin. I believe Luck is going to have to throw the football more than normal, playing catchup, which could also lead to short field situations for the Ravens' offense. The "Luck" runs out for Indy, in my opinion. Baltimore has fared well in wildcard round action, going 5-1 ATS. Indianapolis is in a tough 13-37 ATS spot. NFL teams with a winning record are 13-37 ATS off an upset win over a division rival, provided their current opponent also owns a winning record. Meanwhile, the Ravens are on a 19-8 ATS run at home against teams that allow at least 5.65 yards per play. The Colts fit the bill. I'm laying the points with the Ravens on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Packers on Saturday night. Up until last weekend, the Packers had been dominating this series, both outright and ATS (5-1). Last week, Minnesota was in "must win" mode and managed to scratch out a late 37-34 win. Adrian Peterson ran like a man among boys and Christian Ponder played as well as he's going to play. Yet while Minnesota played at the top of their game, they still needed a few bone-headed mistakes by a Green Bay team that was not at full strength to win the game. Well, the Packers are back home and they are at full strength this week. Charles Woodson & Randall Cobb are both expected to play and Jordy Nelson, who played injured last week is also expected to be close to full strength. Adrian Peterson ran for 199 yards last week and he may start out well again this week, but it should be noted that the Packers get "nasty" after allowing 150 yards rushing or more, going 11-0 ATS the following week. And once they take a decent-sized lead, like I believe they will in this one, Peterson becomes less effective. The bottom line is that while I expect another top shelf performance by the Green Bay offense, I suspect Ponder will go right back in his shell in a game where a QB needs to step up and make plays. Besides the 11-0 mark mentioned earlier, the Packers are on a 23-9 ATS run against division opponents - and they are on an 8-1 ATS run off a SU loss. I'm laying the points with Green Bay on Saturday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Dallas on Sunday night. The Cowboys enter on a 5-2 SU run in their last seven games and fell just short of making their playoff situation much easier in last week's 34-31 OT loss to New Orleans (20-8 ATS after allowing at least 30 points). But Tony Romo was once again on fire and he's been tearing up opposing defenses. Romo is averaging over 350 yards passing in his last five games while throwing 12 TD passes and just 3 INTs. The Cowboys own the NFL's 6th best offense as far as total yards is concerned and they're the league's 3rd best passing offense averaging 302.2 yards per game. Romo and company will face a porous Redskin secondary that has been ripped for 287.7 yards passing per game (30th in the NFL). The Skins are 28th in the league overall on defense and allow 24.7 ppg. Last week, Washington was out-gained 411-313 by the Eagles, yet found a way to win the game. The Redskin offense was hampered by Robert Griffin-III's knee injury. The rookie QB ran the ball just two times for four yards and there's a chance he may not have his complete personal arsenal in this one. Dallas is in revenge for a 38-31 loss to Washington on Thanksgiving Day. The Cowboys had a nightmare of a second quarter, trailed 28-3 at the break, but came within seven before losing the contest. Dallas actually out-gained the Redskins in the game and Romo threw for 441 yards. It should be noted that 17 of Washington's points came on drives that started at the 50-yard line or in Cowboy territory. Dallas went into that meeting having won six of the previous seven in the series and I believe they're going to get back in the win column on Sunday. Dallas has been "money" on the road against teams with a winning home record, going 5-1-1 ATS. And they're on a 4-1 ATS run on the road in general. I'm grabbing the points with the Cowboys on Sunday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Green Bay on Sunday afternoon. Minnesota attempts to play their way into the playoffs, although if they lose they could still reach the postseason with some help. Last week's win over Houston was a big one, obviously, and the Vikings deserve credit, but let's not get too carried away. QB Christian Ponder still can't stretch a field, which means defenses like Green Bay's don't have to "play honest." This means there is a chance a team could actually slow RB Adrian Peterson. You're not going to stop the sensational runner, but you can have your backfield help out to slow the run, since there's no deep passing game to worry about. And even if the former Oklahoma Sooner has a big game on the ground, it's not likely Minnesota can "keep up" with Aaron Rodgers and the Packer offense. Peterson ran for 210 yards in the first meeting, but Ponder connected on just 12 of 25 passes for 119 yards, with 1 TD and 2 INTs. The Packers won 23-14. It should be noted that during the second half of the season, the Packers have faced six teams that average at least 4.5 yards rushing per attempt over the last three years. The Packers went a perfect 6-0 SU & ATS in those outings, outscoring those teams by an average of 39-13! Green Bay ranks 7th on both offense and defense in scoring and in points allowed per game. They have found little resistance from the Vikings in recent years, winning five in a row SU, covering four times. Green Bay is on a 23-8 ATS run within the division and they're on a 12-3 ATS run against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Vikings are on a 6-13-3 ATS slide against winning teams. I'm laying the points with the Packers on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. Both teams have locked-up a playoff berth, but there is something at stake in this one. Bengals HC Marvin Lewis says his offense needs to get on a roll heading into the playoffs and that his team will play this one as though their postseason is on the line. Lewis also stated that his team, "...got the snot.." beat out of the them in the first meeting, a 44-13 Ravens' win. Except for a late game-winning Dallas FG, the Bengals would be on a 7-0 SU/ATS run heading into Sunday's contest. The Bengal defense has been phenomenal, allowing a grand total of 85 points, or 12.1 ppg in those seven outings. Meanwhile, Baltimore's offense had been stuck in neutral before last week's 33-14 win over a Giants' squad that looked like they didn't want to be there. Flacco and company had scored a total of just 94 points in their previous five games, combined. The Ravens' defense has also left a lot to be desired this season, especially against the run where they have allowed 127.7 yards per game. But most of all, I like the talk and preparation from Marvin Lewis and his players this week. There has been no "going through the motions" despite having the 6-seed in the AFC already wrapped up. Cinci's defense has allowed less than 265 total yards per game in their last six contests and just 58 yards rushing per game...a key note facing Ray Lewis. I believe this is going to be a much different outcome than this season's first meeting. As far as the "techs" are concerned, NFL road non-favorites (Balt) have covered just 37 of their last 107, provided they're off an upset win at home by 14 or more points. Look for the Bengals to end their skid against the Ravens. I'm laying the points with Cincinnati on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the NY Giants on Sunday afternoon. Horrible weekend last week for both teams, especially the defending Super Champion Giants who lost 34-0 to Atlanta. But NFL teams off a loss by at least 30 points are 153-114, 57% winners the next week, including last week's easy win and cover by Arizona, the week after losing 58-0 to Seattle. Baltimore has dropped 3 straight after a 9-2 start. The defense is old and wearing thin, while the offense has hit the skids, confused whether they're a hurry-up, high tempo attack or not. In fact, they're so confused that they fired their offensive coordinator Cam Cameron. The Ravens have scored an average of just 18.8 ppg in their last five games, while the defense will be "just what the doctor ordered" for Eli Manning to get back on track. Baltimore ranks 26th in total yards allowed and yards rushing allowed and they're 22nd against the pass. New York has lost two in a row SU just one time this season. They have scored 41, 41, 38, and 52 off their other four losses. I expect this one to get ugly...for Baltimore. New York is on a long term 38-18-1 ATS run in their last 57 road games and they're on a 10-3-1 ATS run against teams with a winning SU record. The Ravens are on a 1-5 ATS slide at home. I'm backing the NY Giants to bounce back in winning fashion on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Chicago Bears on Sunday. Arizona got drilled 58-0 by Seattle two weeks, but showed some pride in a 38-10 bounce-back win over Detroit in week-15. An interesting note is that the Chicago Bears are laying a lower number than the dysfunctional Lions were just one week ago. I believe the line is too short and I'm backing the road team in this one. While Arizona beat Detroit by 28 points, it should be noted the Cardinal offense gained just 12 first downs and 196 total yards on 3.92 yards per play. Arizona benefitted from four Detroit turnovers and the Lions simple lack of direction and focus. The pathetic Arizona offense is dead last in the NFL averaging just 264.4 yards per game. They're 29th in passing and again...a dead last 32nd in rushing. The Bears' defense may not be at full health, but they won't need to be for this one. The Chicago defense ranks 5th in total defense, 6th against the pass, and allows the third fewest points in the NFL. This week that defense faces Ryan Lindley, who has yet to throw a TD pass, while tossing 8 INTs. And let's not forget that five of Chicago's losses have come against Green Bay twice, Seattle, San Francisco, and Houston. They're taking a huge step down in level of competition in this one. The Bears have taken care of business on the road against teams with a losing home record, going 10-4-1 ATS. I'm laying the points with Chicago on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the New Orleans Saints on Sunday. Dallas was able to get by Pittsburgh in OT last weekend, but the Cowboys are not trustworthy on their home turf. The Cowboys head into this one on a 3-13 ATS slide at home and teams favored to cover the week after beating the Mike Tomlin Steelers have covered just 12 of the last 44 times. Dallas will face a New Orleans' team that's playing with a lot of pride as we saw in last week's 41-0 win over Tampa Bay. Drew Brees says his team is playing to "win out" and set the tone for next season. Brees threw for over 300 yards and 4 TDs in last week's win and despite the rough season for the Saints, the signal caller leads the NFL with 36 TD passes and over 43-hundred passing yards. There's no denying the Saints' defense has had a tough season. But they are facing a one-dimensional Dallas offense that passes for a lot of yardage, but ranks 2nd to last in the NFL in rushing yardage. The bottom line though, is that Dallas has been terrible at covering the middle of the field on defense. Drew Brees and his talented receiving corps ought to be able to light this defense up over the middle...and I'm betting they will. Along with the situation mentioned earlier, underdogs are on a 34-12 ATS run in Cowboy games. I'm siding with the matchups and situations and taking the points with the Saints on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. Buffalo was the latest team to get whacked by the Seattle Seahawks, losing 50-17 in Toronto. The Bills fit a long term situation that backs teams off of losses by 30 or more points. NFL teams in this spot are on a 153-114, 57% winning run the following week. Arizona was the latest to win in this situation and did so in a 38-10 victory over Detroit one week ago. Buffalo also owns the player matchup advantages in this one and that's the main reason I'm on them. First of all, let's not forget Buffalo lost 48-28 to the Jets in week-1, then followed with a 35-17 win over KC. They followed a 45-3 loss to SFO with a 19-16 win in Arizona. And before the loss to Seattle, the Bills' defense allowed just 16.8 ppg in their previous four. The Bills beat the Dolphins 19-14 in mid-November. Miami's offense couldn't get anything going against the Buffalo defense. Miami was held to 184 total yards on 3.54 yards per play. While Miami beat Jacksonville last weekend for a rare win and cover, they have covered just 9 of their last 42 as a home favorite. I'll take Ryan Fitzpatrick (against the NFL's 26th ranked pass defense) over Ryan Tannehill...and I have no problem backing the Buffalo running game. As mentioned above, Miami is on a 9-33 ATS slide as a home favorite. They're 25-52-1 in their last 78 home games, overall. And finally, the Bills are on a 17-6 ATS run on the road after allowing at least 35 points in their previous game. The first and last situations combine for a 50-15 spot. I'm grabbing the points with Buffalo on Sunday. Thanks! GL! - Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with San Francisco on Sunday night. I had New England on these pages last week and we cashed an easy win over Houston. But that win was so impressive that the line began moving before Monday night's game was final. New England intimidates teams...especially at home. The 49ers can't be intimidated. They also can't be pushed around on the defensive side of the football. In all fairness to Houston, their defense is not 100% healthy...especially at LB and in the secondary. SFO's defense is healthy. They have a "sick" pass rusher in Aldon Smith (19.5 sacks) along with a "nasty" defensive backfield. SFO have held seven of their last 10 opponents to fewer than 17 points. The 49ers are #1 in the league allowing just 14.2 ppg. They're 2nd in total yards allowed, yards passing allowed, and defending the run. And they can challenge New England's front line with a fantastic run-blocking scheme that can lessen the impact of Vince Wolfork's presence in the middle of the line. Add Colin Kaepernick's running ability into the mix and New England is facing much tougher competition in week-15. The Niners are on a 9-1 ATS run against teams that allow at least 7 yards per pass attempt. They're 6-0 ATS against teams that allow at least 375 yards per game, and finally, the 49ers are on a 22-9-1 ATS run, overall. I'm taking the points with the 49ers on Sunday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. The Steelers were as flat as it gets in last week's loss to SDG. It seemed as though several players let-up with Big Ben back on the field. I suspect we'll see an all-out effort from Pittsburgh as they make a run towards a playoff berth. Now, with a game behind him, I suspect Roethlisberger to have shaken off the rust. He and his offense will face a Dallas defense that has allowed 8 TD passes with just 2 INTs in their last four games. The Cowboys are also limited at ILB and up front on the interior defensive line, which means Pittsburgh ought to be able to run the ball well even with Rashard Mendenhall likely sidelined (possible suspension). Pittsburgh faces a Dallas defense that just got rocked for 146 yards rushing by Cincinnati. And while Dallas has been better against the pass in 2012, they're facing an offense loaded at the wide receiver positions - and combined with what Dallas is missing up front, I believe the Steelers own a big advantage. The Steelers enter on an 11-2 ATS run off a SU loss and they're 9-3 ATS on the road against teams with a winning home record. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are on a 3-13 ATS slide off a SU win and they're 2-13 ATS in their last 15 home games. I'm backing the Steelers on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Houston on Sunday. I played against the Texans on Monday night. While I expected a cover by New England, (obviously), I didn't expect an absolute mismatch. I did know that the Texans were in a horrible spot and just might lay an egg. Now they're back home against a division opponent that's not as good as their record indicates. And let's not forget that the Colts have been slaughtered on the road three times this season at Chicago, the NY Jets, and New England. Indy's defense was punished against those three teams and only one has an offense worthy of talking about (Patriots). Indy allowed 41 points and 428 yards on 6.29 yards per play to Chicago. They allowed the anemic Jets to run for 252 yards on 5.73 yards per carry, and gave up 446 yards on 7.43 yards per play at New England. I believe they're in for another beating in Houston. And when the Texans control a game (at 11-2 they normally do), they "own" the time of possession and keep the opposing offense on the sideline. I expect that to happen on Sunday. Houston enters on a 20-9 ATS run in their last 29 games. They're 17-5 ATS at home against teams with a winning record and 7-1-1 ATS against teams with a winning record, overall. I played against Indy when they played at New England and rode the Pats to a 59-24 win. I'm laying the points with Houston on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Patriots on Monday night. New England hits their stride this time of season and will attempt to win their 13th straight December contest (30-18 ATS in Dec. w/ Belichick). They're also on a 10-1 SU run on Monday Night Football. The Patriots have won six straight games, overall, and Tom Brady has been red-hot, throwing 15 TD passes with just one interception during the run. Brady and the Pats will face a suspect Houston secondary...suspect because it's full of injuries. Houston is 11-1 SU, but they don't own any remarkable wins. They did beat Denver, but that came early in the season before Peyton Manning had shaken off the rust. And their win over Chicago came with Jay Cutler spending the entire second half on the sideline after suffering an injury in the second quarter. Last weekend, Houston gained just 4.7 yards per play and 332 yards, but beat Tennessee 24-10 thanks to six Titan turnovers. They're not likely to receive much help from this tonight's opponent. QB Matt Schaub has found success, but faces a Patriot secondary playing their best football of the season after acquiring Aqib Talib. I believe New England has the answer for everything Houston does well, and again, the Texans' defense is not a healthy one, especially at LB and CB. I'm laying the points with the Patriots on Monday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the NY Giants on Sunday afternoon. New York's Monday night loss was more self-inflicted than anything else. After all, the G-men held huge statistical advantages over Washington at halftime. And after settling for yet another FG and a 16-10 lead, the Giants had gained 20 first downs to Washington's 9, to go along with a 379-229 total yardage advantage. But they let Washington hang around and RG-III took care of the rest. But when this team is focused they look like the best team in the league. I suspect they'll have little trouble finsihing this week's long drives with TDs rather than FGs. They're facing a Saints' defense that's allowing 30 yards per game more than the second worst defense in the NFL. New Orleans has been outgained in all but three games this season and allow over 27 ppg. NYG heads in averaging over 27 ppg and I believe they're in serious bounce-back mode. The Giants' wideouts should have a field day against New Orleans' secondary, especially their mistake-prone safeties. Add in the over-reactive Saints' linebackers and Eli Manning should have little trouble picking this defense apart. Last week, the Giants came up short due to an unusual amount of penalties deep in Washington territory. But the Giants gained 6.29 yards per play and they have been a momentum team under Tom Coughlin, currently on a 34-16 ATS run after gaining at least 6 yards per play. NY is also on a 12-4 ATS run in the second half of the season against teams that average at least 260 yards passing per game. I'm laying the points with the Giants on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday. Tough loss last week for Baltimore and with their difficult schedule combined with Pittsburgh's somewhat soft slate, this game takes on major importance for the road team. Washington comes in as the "Flavor of the Week," off three straight wins, including a MNF win over the Giants. But the three game streak isn't as impressive as it seems when you consider they beat the Philadelphia Eagles (barely an NFL team at this point), the Dallas Cowboys, who gave that game away, and the NY Giants, who dominated Washington statistically, but couldn't put the ball in the endzone, instead settling for FGs. Ravens' QB Joe Flacco may not be a signal caller that strikes fear in opposing defenses, but the Washington pass defense leaves a lot to be desired, ranked 31st in the NFL. At the same time, I expect Baltimore's defense to handle the Skins' offense. Yes, Robert Griffin-III is having a superb rookie season, but they're handling him with kid gloves. The Skins have thrown more passes behind the line of scrimmage than any team in the NFL. And finally, the line value is on the road team. Three weeks ago, Baltimore would have been favored and now they're getting points. Baltimore lost to Pittsburgh last weekend and they're on a 12-3 ATS run off a home loss as a favorite - and they're on a 10-2 ATS run on the road against teams that complete at least 64% of their passes. Baltimore needs this one - and I believe they'll get the job done. I'm playing Baltimore, my Knockout G.O.M. on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Panthers on Sunday. I had the Panthers when the teams hooked-up earlier this season and we cashed in a 30-28 ATL win. The Falcons won the game in the final seconds after Carolina's offense couldn't close the deal just a couple minutes earlier. But the Panthers, despite their 3-9 SU mark actually own the better YPP stats on both sides of the line of scrimmage than the 11-1 Falcons. Although they ran for 124 yards last week against New Orleans, ATL has not been able to run the ball consistently, needing to rely on Matt Ryan's arm. The problem this week is that they're facing the league's 8th best pass defense. Meanwhile, the Panthers had no problem running the ball right at the Falcons in this season's earlier meeting. Carolina ran for 199 yards in that contest and I expect success in the rematch. This is also a tough sandwich spot for the Falcons, coming of their revenge win over the Saints and with the NY Giants on deck. Carolina has only been blown out twice this season with their other seven losses coming by a combined 30 points. This week, I believe they'll hand ATL their second loss of the season, but I'm taking the points for insurance. Carolina, plus the points, my Revenge Tapout GOY. Thanks! GL! - Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Giants on Monday night. The New York Giants won late in their 27-23 victory over Washington in this season's first meeting. But the Giants are a different team now than they were back then. New York's speed-rushers on defense are playing a better brand of football - and giving OLB Mathias Kiwanuka some time at DT produced huge dividends last weekend against Green Bay. I believe the Giants have the athletes on defense to slow Robert Griffin-III down enough in this one to secure separation on the scoreboard. I also expect big things from Eli Manning and the NYG offense facing a Redskins' defense that has been horrible against the pass (31st in the league). New York enters on an 11-2 ATS run on the road against teams that allow at least 260 yards passing per game. They're on a 9-2 ATS run in games with a line in the +3/-3 range and 6-0 ATS on the road off a home win. The first meeting went right to the wire, but I expect the Giants to win by margin in this one. I'm laying the points with the Giants on Monday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Denver on Sunday afternoon. The Broncos were both flat and a huge road favorite last weekend and toughed-out a 17-9 win over Kansas City. But I expect the Broncos to treat that one almost as though they lost SU as they get ready to host the Buccs. Denver will attack a Tampa team that's 6-5 and in the playoff race. But the wins have come against the Chiefs, Vikings, Raiders, Chargers, and two wins over Carolina. Not exactly murderer's row. And last week's heartbreaking loss against division foe Atlanta certainly makes for a tough trip. But most of all, the Buccs' depleted secondary, already giving up a league-worst 315.5 yards passing per game will face Peyton Manning and a receiving corps that runs routes as well as any group in the NFL. I expect a big game from the Denver offense. The Bronco defense is a tough nut to crack, ranked 4th in total yards allowed per game, and should have little trouble with Tampa's middle of the road offense. The Falcons are on a 1-6-1 ATS slide after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Broncos are in a league-wide 82-44 ATS spot playing on non-conference favorites who're off a win against a divisional rival. I'm laying the points with Denver on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the St. Louis Rams. Colin Kaepernick is off to a great start as an NFL starting QB. But the hype has reached ridiculous levels. The NFL is not as easy as this, Mr. Kaepernick. There will be growing pains along the way, and I'm betting veteran HC Jeff Fisher is looking forward, along with his defensive coaches, to devising a plan to stop a rookie QB. Let's not forget, the Rams tied the 49ers in SFO just a few weeks ago. Alex Smith was behind center to start that game, but was injured during the contest. Thrown into the mix, Kaepernick looked good at times and looked too eager to pull the ball down and run with it at other times. But that was the beginning of the end for Smith as the Niners starting QB and Kaepernick has played well in his two starts. This time Fisher has had a week to prep for the new 49er offensive look. While the 49ers are a strong defensive team, they were gashed for 458 yards by the Rams in the tie game. Sam Bradford has enjoyed his outings against SFO, passing for 818 yards with 4 touchdowns and no interceptions in three games against them. I expect another one to go right to the wire making the points well worth taking. St. Louis is on a 5-0 ATS run against fellow NFC West opponents and they're 5-0-1 ATS at home in their last six games against teams with a winning road record. I'm grabbing the points with the Rams, Sunday's Perfect-10.

I'm laying the points with the Lions on Sunday. Yes, I know the Lions have a few "boneheads" on the roster and this week we heard about WR Titus Young and his on-field shenanigans. But he's getting backing from his coaches and players, as is Ndamukong Suh after his latest indescretions. While this may not be a smart move down the road, I believe we're going to see the Lions play with urgency and discipline in this one. They're hosting an overrated and very beatable Colts' team that's ranked in the 20-26 range in Vegas rankings. Indy's defense leaves a lot to be desired and should be "just what the doctor ordered" for Mattew Stafford and the Detroit offense (Calvin Johnson: 32 rec. 619 yards & 3 TDs last 4 games). Offensively, as good as Andrew Luck has been in his rookie season, he's not been so hot on the road where his QB rating plummets to 65. In fact, Luck has a horrible TD-INT ratio away from home. Bad spot for the overrated Colts and I will back the Lions to make at least one final stand this season. I'm laying the points with Detroit, Sunday's TKO.

I'm taking the points with the Titans on Sunday. I respect the Houston Texans - without a doubt. But the Texans are in a tough spot. They're off back-to-back overtime games, playing their third game in 14 days, and have a road date with the New England Patriots up next. Not an easy task for any team. The Houston defense has left a lot to be desired the last two weeks, allowing 68 points to the Jaguars and Lions, combined. They gave up 983 yards on 6.64 yards per play in the two wins. The defense was so overwhelmed that Matt Schaub had to throw 55 passes against Jax and another 48 last week in Detroit. And while the Texans are looking to stay in front of the Broncos, Patriots, and Ravens for AFC home field advantage, the fact is, they're in an extremely tough spot against a team that has a win over Pittsburgh (before Ben was injured) and two road wins, all in the last six weeks. RB Chris Johnson has been on a tear and he's just 58 yards from 1,000 yards rushing on the season. He's averaged 93.6 yards rushing per game in his career against the Texans. I believe the Titans will be able to run the football and keep Schaub on the sideline enough to keep this one close. Houston owns five road wins this season, but four have come by seven points or less. Houston is 1-4 ATS on the road against teams with a losing home record. And underdogs of 3 1/2 to 10 points and off a loss to a division rival are 49-18 ATS if they're in revenge of a loss where their opponent scored at least 35 points. Favorites seem hard-pressed to stay completely focused in this position and I expect the same to take place in this one. I'm taking the points with Tennessee, my Sunday underdog Knockout. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the NY Giants on Sunday night. When these teams last met, the feared Giants' defensive line wreaked havoc on Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offensive line. With all of the changes up front for Green Bay due mainly to the loss of Bryan Bulaga, I expect the Giants' outstanding and speedy pass rushers to disrupt the Packer offense again. We saw Detroit dominate the Green Bay offense for most of last week's contest. The Packers "stole" a win from a team that hasn't learned how to put teams away. I'm betting they won't be so lucky against a team that knows what it takes to not only win big games...but win championships. And with a week off, Eli Manning and the offense has had a chance to get back on the same page following a slump by the two-time Super Bowl winning QB. Manning and company will attack a banged-up Green Bay defense and I believe they'll take full advantage over the middle, on deep routes, and in the running game. The Giants are 33-21 ATS with HC Tom Coughlin against when the line is in the +3/-3 range. They're 28-13 ATS against teams that complete at least 64% of their passes and 9-2-1 ATS against teams with a winning record. I'm laying the points with the Giants on Sunday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the SDG Chargers on Sunday afternoon. Tough spot for the Ravens who just beat Pittsburgh in a real "slugfest" and have a return game with the Steelers in Baltimore next week. It's not like the Raven offense can afford not to be 100% focused as it is. The Raven offense leaves a lot to be desired in most important categories and were even outgained in their 55-20 win over Oakland two weeks ago. They gained just 200 yards and finished with only 12 first downs in the 13-10 win over Pittsburgh. They'll face a Charger defense that's 8th overall and 3rd against the run. San Diego's offense has a chance to "get healthy" against the NFL's 25th ranked defense. Baltimore ranks 23rd against the pass and 27th against the run. And this is Baltimore's 4th roadie in their last 5 games. The Ravens are 5-11 ATS on the road against teams with a losing home record. They're 1-4-1 ATS off their last six SU wins. Meanwhile, the Chargers are on a 9-2 ATS run against AFC teams and they're 6-2 ATS off a SU loss. I'm backing the Chargers on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Buffalo on Sunday. I went against the Colts last week and I'm doing so again in week-12. The Colts went into the game with the Patriots calling it a "measuring stick." After getting routed 59-24, making a plethora of mistakes and with their secondary getting used and abused, I suspect there's a little bit of doubt in the back of the young team's minds. Indy had a horrible time with underneath routes last week and with TE Rob Gronkowski. Buffalo owns the type of players to take advantage of the Indy defense in the same way...utilizing plenty of underneath looks and crossing routes. They also have C.J. Spiller coming out of the backfield, averaging well over 6 yards per pop against a defense that allows nearly 120 yards rushing per game. Spiller should have fellow RB Fred Jackson (probable) for this one, also. And believe it or not, Buffalo's Ryan Fitzpatrick actually has 5 more TD passes this season than Andrew Luck, who has the same amount of INTs (12) as he does TD passes. Indy "fattened up" against Cleveland, Tennessee, Miami, and Jacksonville, before getting a reality check last weekend. I believe they're in trouble again this week. And finally, NFL teams with a losing record are on a 42-15 ATS run if they're a road underdog to a team playing between .510 & .600 football. I'm grabbing the points with the Bills on Sunday. Thanks! GL! - Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. I have been saying all season that I'm not "buying" the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta finally came up short two games ago in a loss to New Orleans, then barely escaped last week in a 23-19 win over a struggling Arizona team. While they're 9-1 SU...Atlanta was just a handful of plays from losing three other games on the season. Now they must face a red-hot Tampa Bay team that is doing everything right under first-year HC Greg Schiano. The Buccs have won four in a row and five of six, scoring 34.2 ppg along the way. QB Josh Freeman has thrown 16 TD pass and just 3 INTs during his team's 5-1 run. And while the Buccs average 128.5 yards rushing per game on 4.7 yards per attempt, the Falcons' defense has been punished for 130.5 yards rushing per game (26th) on a hefty 5 yards per carry. Meanwhile, the Falcon offense has become one-dimensional, unable to run the football and relying heavily on the arm of Matt Ryan. Look for Tampa to run the football right at the permissive Atlanta defense, controlling the pace of this game, while keeping Ryan's arm on the sideline. You're 35-12 ATS playing against NFL teams that have been out-rushed by at least 75 yards in two straight games. Atlanta has been the last two games. And the Buccs are 8-2 ATS on the season. I'm backing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to remain red-hot and win this divisional battle. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday afternoon. The Cowboys are not over-valued in this one. There's a statement I have rarely made over the years. Instead, it's Washington who I believe is getting too much respect. The Redskins did look impressive last week, but that came at the expense of a Philadelphia team without their starting QB, who looked to have just "packed it in." Dallas has been taking care of the football with just one turnover in their last three games. Tony Romo led the team in a spirited second half effort, overcoming a 13-0 halftime deficit to beat Cleveland last time out. That fight and determination carries over in this one. And the Cowboy defense owns the pass rushers to make life tough on Robert Griffin-III. The Dallas defense ranks 7th in total defense and 6th against the pass. Meanwhile, the Cowboy offense will face a Washington defense that ranks 26th overall, including 29th against the pass, and they give up 25.4 ppg, which ranks 25th. Mike Shanahan teams have not fared well against efficient passing teams. In fact, his teams have covered just 5 of 23 against offenses that complete at least 64% of their passes. Romo is hitting 67.3% on the season. Meanwhile, after the first month of the season, road teams with a line in the +3/-3 range are 10-30 ATS after beating the spread by more than 21 points. And finally, the Cowboys are on a 6-1 SU run against the Skins, holding Washington to 14.1 ppg in those meetings. I like the fact that Dallas is not over-valued and I'm laying the points with Dallas on Thursday. Happy Thanksgiving and Best of Luck! - Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night. The "look-ahead" line out of Las Vegas was Pittsburgh -6 for this contest. Last Sunday, before Big Ben's injury, the Steelers were installed as a 3 1/2 point favorite. Roethlisberger is out...Byron Leftwich is in and the line has moved 9 1/2 points since the "look-ahead" and 7 points just since last Sunday. Leftwich may not be able to create like Big Ben can, but he knows the offense, has a trustworthy arm, and is surrounded by a ground game that's night-and-day better than it was six weeks ago. The Steelers are averaging 140 yards rushing per game in their last four contests. The Steeler offense will attack a Baltimore defense that's 28th overall, including 26th against both the pass and the run. The Raven offense is "middle of the pack" in most important categories and were even outgained in their 55-20 win over Oakland last weekend. That so-so offense will face a Pittsburgh defense that's tops in the NFL overall and in yards passing allowed (43-18 ATS against teams that average at least 7 yards per pass)...while ranking 5th against the run. The Steelers should have little trouble devising a game plan to slam the door on the Raven offense, in my opinion. Pittsburgh may struggle long-term if Big Ben is out for a while, but the offense, defense, and Leftwich, can pick up the slack for at least one weekend. I'm taking the points with Pittsburgh on Sunday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with New England on Sunday afternoon. Andrew Luck may be the second coming of Peyton Manning one day, but right now he tends to struggle quite a bit away from home. The rookie Colt QB owns a passer rating of 66 on the road with 2 TD passes and 7 interceptions. He'll face a fired-up New England defense that's going to be champing at the bit to get after a rookie, following last weekend's shaky performance against Buffalo. The Patriots won 37-31, but you know Belichick treated that one like a loss. The Patriot offense is tops in the NFL in total yards per game. They're #1 in the league averaging over 33 ppg and are equally effective on the ground or through the air. Tom Brady (18-3 TD-INT ratio) should have little trouble slicing and dicing a mediocre Indy defense that's making a big step up in competition after facing Cleveland, Tennessee, Miami, and Jacksonville. The Pats are on a 20-6-1 ATS run after allowing more than 30 points in a game and I'm laying the spot with New England. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Oakland Raiders on Sunday afternoon. New Orleans' defense may have found the "right stuff" against the Falcons last week inside their own 10-yard line, but that does not dismiss the fact they're historically bad. The Saints are dead last in total yards allowed per game. They're 31st, or second to last, in both yards rushing allowed and passing yards allowed. And now they must be able to focus on the Oakland Raiders following the win over previously unbeaten Atlanta, and with a game against San Francisco on deck. That's not an easy task, especially with the way the Raiders got rocked last week in Baltimore. Oakland has injuries at RB, so look for Carson Palmer and the Raider offense to put the football in the air all afternoon against the horrible Saints' pass defense. The Saints have covered just 4 of their last 12 as a road favorite. Meanwhile, the Raiders are on a 17-7-1 ATS run off a spread loss. Tough spot for the Saints and we'll take the points with Oakland on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Detroit Lions on Sunday. Green Bay is in an extremely tough spot. They're faced with more than their fair share of injuries which should severely hamper their pass rush on defense and their passing game on offense. Clay Matthews, the Packers' only feared pass rusher is out. But he's not the only LB who's banged-up. Green Bay is also short-handed at WR, missing Greg Jennings. In fact, other than QB, the Packers are banged-up in every unit on both sides of the line of scrimmage. They're facing a Lions' team in a virtual "now or never" situation. Detroit is also playing better on the offensive side of the football with Matthew Stafford averaging over 320 yards passing the last three games. WR Calvin Johnson (probable) is playing much better football also right now - and should have little time getting separation from a secondary that won't be helped by much of a pass rush. Detroit heads into this one on a 4-1 ATS run, while the Packers are 0-5 ATS against losing teams and 1-4 ATS off a cover. I'm backing the Lions, plus the points on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the short number with the Chicago Bears on Sunday night. I went against the Houston Texans when they hosted the Green Bay Packers on a Sunday night in October and the Pack cashed a 42-24 winning ticket. I mentioned in that game how important the loss of LB Brian Cushing would be to the Texans. Cushing, who's out for the season wasn't missed in their last two games against the soft offenses of Baltimore and Buffalo. And while I expect a much lower scoring game than we saw when Houston lost to Green Bay, I do believe Cushing's absence will hurt Houston against the run and also when Cutler dumps-off to RB's, especially Matt Forte, in this, Houston's next step-up situaiton. At the same time, I expect the Chicago defense to put the game on their shoulders as they have done so well all season. The Bears are 6th in total yards allowed per game and 6th against the run. They allow just 15 ppg which is the 2nd stingiest mark in the NFL. I don't expect the Chicago offense to score a ton of points, but I do expect Houston to find it tough to reach the endzone. And let's not forget that Chicago is on a 28-12 ATS run against teams that average at least 130 yards rushing per game. The Bears are used to slowing these kind of offenses down. At the same time, the Texans are 2-11 ATS against defenses that hold the opposition to no more than 90 yards rushing per contest. Houston has enjoyed a pretty soft slate - and did not look good when they stepped up against Green Bay. I expect them to struggle in tonight's step-up spot, also. I'm backing Chicago on Sunday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Cowboys on Sunday. While Dallas and Philly have botched several opportunities to win games this season, I believe it's the Cowboys who're better suited to get back on track. Dallas ranks 6th in the league on offense and 5th on defense. And it's that Cowboy defense that I believe will dictate the outcome of this one. Philadelphia gained a lot of yardage against a bad New Orleans defense last week, but couldn't overcome mistakes in Saints' territory. QB Michael Vick was under pressure all night. The Eagle offensive line is a mess and will have their hands full and then some with the Dallas defense, especially DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer. And if the Cowboys are paying attention, they should be able to create the same problems for Philly's offense by shooting the "A-gaps" just like the Saints and Cardinals have done this season. Philly is on a 1-6-1 ATS slide in their last eight games and they're 0-4-1 against the NFC. Meanwhile, November road teams off a road loss are on a 37-9 ATS run. That's a combined 47-10-2 mark. I'm laying the points with the Cowboys on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Titans on Sunday. We're getting nice value in this one based on Tennessee's 51-20 loss last week to Chicago along with Miami's 3-1 SU run and four wins on the season. First of all, Tennessee was only outgained 358-333 by the Bears last weekend. Chicago did what they do, scoring touchdowns on special teams and on defense. Chicago scored three more touchdowns that all began inside the Titan 20-yard line. Miami has won four of eight games this season, but take a look at the teams they have beaten and you'll get a little more perspective on things. Miami is in the bottom-third in the NFL on both sides of the line of scrimmage, ranked 23rd in total yards gained per game and 24th in total yards allowed per game. That defense will face a Titan ground game that not only includes Chris Johnson, but just ran for 159 yards as a team against the ultra-stout Chicago Bears. The Dolphins have been outgained by nearly 550 yards in their last three games. These numbers and results do not warrant a 6-point favorite. Instead, it's all about faulty public perception. Miami has been a horrible home team ATS for years, including an 11-28 slide following a two-game road trip. They have covered just 15 of their last 45 against teams with a .250 to .400 SU win percentage. More of the same. I'm taking the points with the Titans on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Lions on Sunday. This marks the second time this season I have played Detroit against Minnesota. The first meeting ended in a 20-13 Viking win, but the final score didn't tell the entire story. Minnesota was held to 227 yards on just 4.1 yards per play and their offense never reached paydirt. Both Minnesota TDs were scored on special teams. Detroit didn't have a big game offensively, either. But the offense is in much better current form. The Lions have scored 31, 28, and 26 points in three of their last four games. The only time they didn't reach 26 points was against Chicago, a game where the Lions out-gained the Bears, but turned the ball over three times in the red-zone. They gained an average of 436 yards on 6.11 yards per play in the other three, including 316 yards passing per game and 26 first downs per contest. I expect the Lions' offense to take it to the Vikings and roll to the win. The Minnesota offense has hit the skids, especially QB Christian Ponder who has completed just 38 passes in his last three games on 74 attempts with 2 TDs and 4 INTs. Ponder has thrown for 58 and 63 yards in two of his last three games and he has been sacked 14 times in his last four. Minnesota is 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 division games, while the Lions are 14-6-1 ATS off a cover and 4-0 ATS in their last four games, overall. I'm backing the Detroit Lions minus the points. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Jacksonville on Thursday. The Jaguars won the first meeting of the season, a 22-17 win on September, 23. The Jags ran for 185 yards on 32 carries. And while Jones-Drew is out this time with an injury, I expect Jacksonville to be able to create room for RB Rashad Jennings. After all, the Colts are allowing 129.8 yards rushing per game on 4.8 yards per carry. Also, with MJD sidelined, the offense has become more diverse. As reported by national sports media, roughly three in every five Jaguar offensive plays included touches for Jones-Drew. Now that he's injured, Jax is getting others much more involved, including Cecil Shorts, Laurent Robinson, and Justin Blackmon. They're actually a tougher team to defend. By the way, the last time these two teams hooked-up, Andrew Luck threw for 313 yards, but his team still ended the game with a loss. Luck, as good as he can be, owns just a 79-passer rating and he's not the same player on the road in this, his rookie season (56% passer. 2 TDs & 6 INTs). November favorites off a SU win are just 8-28 ATS the last 36 times in the NFL. Meanwhile, home teams in the +3/-3 line range are 31-8 ATS if they have been outscored by at least 10 ppg on the season. I'm grabbing the points with Jacksonville on Thursday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Eagles on Monday night. The favorite has not covered in any of Philadelphia's games this season and I expect that trend to continue on Monday. Drew Brees certainly owns strong home numbers, but Andy Reid has been a tremendous "bet" on the road, covering 60% of those away games throughout his career. His teams are 10-2 ATS on the Monday Night Football road. The Eagles are just 3-4 SU, but they're just a couple of plays from owning a 5-2 SU mark. The Eagle offense has a chance to "get healthy" and catch fire against a Saints' defense that has allowed over 400 yards in all of their games this season. And with Reid as HC, the Eagles are 10-2 ATS against defenses that allow at least 7.5 yards per pass attempt. Offensively, New Orleans will no doubt attempt to attack Philly's defense with screens and underneath stuff after the Falcons were successful doing so last week. But the New Orleans offense is starting to look a bit sluggish (as we saw last week) as the losses mount. Finally, you're 37-13 ATS going against NFL home favorites after they allowed at least 200 yards rushing in their previous game, while gaining less than 100 yards rushing themselves in each of their previous two games. New Orleans allowed 225 yards rushing to Denver last week, while the Saints offense rushed for only 51 yards and 81 yards in their two games since their bye week. I'm grabbing the points with the Eagles on Monday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Bengals on Sunday. The Denver Broncos have been involved in three straight "big game" contests. After playing at New England, Denver traveled to San Diego to face a big division rival, then took on New Orleans in a marquee Sunday night affair. They're shooting for their third straight win, but I believe they're in a tough situation. The Broncos will face underrated Andy Dalton, who has completed 64.2% of his passes on the season. That's an important note because Denver has covered just 16 of their last 53 against teams that complete at least 64% of their pass attempts and I'm not "buying" this Denver defense just yet. Going against NFL teams with a .510 to .600 win percentage and favored by 3 1/2 to 10 points is a lucrative 43-14 ATS the last five years, provided the underdog has a losing SU record. Cincinnati comes in with a 3-4 SU record, but they are off their bye week and understand the importance of this game if they want to be involved in meaningful contests late in the season. "It's an important, important football game," head coach Marvin Lewis said. He's absolutely right as a win brings them to .500, rather than a loss that would leave them at just 3-5 SU. Lewis stated that his team played "too nice" in the loss to the Browns and has challenged his team during the time off. I believe Cinci has what it takes on defense to slow Willis McGahee in LB Vontaze Burfict. Slow down the Denver running game and Peyton Manning may not be quite so effective - especially with Geno Atkins rushing Manning up the middle. Again, I believe this is a tough spot on the schedule for the Broncos and I'm grabbing the points with the Bengals on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Baltimore on Sunday. This one reminds me of the week-1 contest between the Bills & Jets in the fact we're getting huge value on a side due to ridiculous public perception. We made a big play on New York and were rewarded with an easy blowout win in that week-1 contest. Not many situations will get better than this over the years, in my opinion. The Ravens tossed up a couple of clunkers going into their bye week and they have to feel fortunate they split those two games. But with a week off to regroup, they can now focus on an over-valued Cleveland team. Indeed, when these teams met in Baltimore just five weeks ago, the Ravens were an 11 1/2 point favorite. A little more than a month later the line has been adjusted by eight points. The "Dawg Pound" is not worth eight points, but public perception is. We'll gladly go against the huge adjustment. The Ravens won that first matchup 23-16. They outgained the Browns, 438-357, yet Ray Rice gained just 48 yards on the ground and 47 yards in receiving. And let's not forget, Baltimore was fresh off a major win over New England. Even a flat spot for the Ravens wasn't enough to help the Browns. I expect Ray Rice to carry the team on his shoulders in this one against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Browns' offense that just won despite only scoring 7 points, ranks 29th in total yards per game. This is "just what the doctor ordered" for a fired-up and angry Ravens' team. The road team enters on a 6-0 ATS run in this series and I expect the trend to continue. I'm laying the points with Baltimore on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Titans on Sunday. I went against Chicago the last two weeks and we cashed both times. The Bears offense has been M.I.A. in two games since their bye week, gaining just 506 total yards combined on 4.15 yards per play. Jay Cutler has connected on just 35 of his last 59 passes for 336 yards and he's been sacked 11 times in those two outings. Meanwhile, the Titans are a better offensive football team with Matt Hasselbeck behind center. It certainly doesn't hurt to have Chris Johnson running well again. Johnson has run the ball 19, 18, and 21 times the last three games, for 91, 195, and 99 yards. Besides the fact I believe Chicago's offense will struggle again, I also believe Tennessee is a much more dangerous offense right now than they were just a few short weeks ago. The Bears are receiving a lot of coverage right now, but their six wins came against Indy in week-one with a rookie QB at the helm, the Rams, the Cowboys (despite getting outgained), Jacksonville, Detroit (multiple missed red-zone opportunities), and Carolina. Chicago has won five in a row, but they're 1-8 ATS on the road after winning at least three straight games. Under the direction of HC Lovie Smith, the Bears re 24-38 ATS on the road after a home game and they're 5-13 ATS on the road following a two-game homestand. Tough spot for what I believe is an overrated Bears' team. I'm taking the points with Tennessee on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the New Orleans Saints on Sunday night. While it's been quite a while and a lot of things have taken place since then, the "early line" in this one had Denver laying 2 1/2 points. Even last week's "Look-Ahead Line" was two points below the current line as I post my release. I believe we're getting solid value with a New Orleans offense that has kicked it into gear - and I believe they have a great shot to win their third straight game, outright. The Saints will have Jonathan Vilma back for this one along with interim HC Joe Vitt, who has completed his suspension. (Vilma and Will Smith are allowed to play while they await their appeals on October 30). The bottom line is that Drew Brees has been back on his game over the last three contests and his offensive line protected him extremely well last week. The Broncos are off a bye week and while Peyton Manning has been getting a ton of hype - and deservedly so, his team has lost as many games as they've won this season (3-3). It's the Denver defense that should be concerned in this one. New Orleans is on a 9-1 ATS run against teams that allow at least a 61% completion rate, outscoring those opponents by an average of 37-21. They're a momentum team...on an 8-1 ATS run after passing for at least 350 yards in their previous game, and the Saints are 6-0 ATS against teams that average at least 24 points. Besides the matchups and line value, we have situations heavily on our side also. I'm grabbing the points with the Saints on Sunday night. Thanks! GL! - Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the KC Chiefs on Sunday afternoon. Kansas City may be the biggest disappointment of the NFL season thus far after many picked the Chiefs to win the AFC West under the directon of HC Romeo Crennel. The Chiefs are 1-5 SU, but have outgained all but one opponent. Kansas City outgained both Atlanta and Baltimore. But by now, everyone knows they're under .500 because of their ridiculous amount of turnovers. Most of those came with Matt Cassel behind center, but Brady Quinn will get the start this week...off the bye. Kansas City ranks 8th in total offense and 3rd rushing the football and should have little trouble against a pathetic Oakland secondary. At the same time, with Quinn starting and with renewed focus on the running game (Jamal Charles) I suspect the Chiefs will be able to hang onto the football. The KC defense will face a one-trick pony in the Oakland offense that ranks 31st on the ground...and can only pass the football. I believe Oakland is heading into a very tough situation. The Chiefs are on a 9-1 ATS run off a SU road loss, going 6-0 ATS when those losses came by at least 14 points. And Crennel-coached teams are 7-0 ATS after allowing at least 450 yards in their previous game. I'm backing the KC Chiefs on Sunday. Thanks! GL! - Scott Spreitzer.

I went against the Bears on Monday night and I'm doing so again on Sunday. The Bears didn't cover, but did beat the Detroit Lions 13-7, outright. But the Bears had plenty of help from the undisciplined Lions who outgained Chicago and held the Bears to 4.3 yards per play, but turned the ball over 4 times. No one wants to touch the Carolina Panthers after watching them not only lose another game last time out, but also taking in another Cam Newton post-game whine-fest. The bottom line is that Chicago owns a one-dimensional offense and they're over-valued in week-8. Carolina may be 1-5 SU, but they have lost just one time by more than six points. In fact, they're a grand total of just 17 points away from a 5-1 mark...and came within 2-points of beating the Falcons in Atlanta, in a 30-28 last minute loss. I expect a tight game and an outright win would not surprise me. I'm taking the points with Carolina on Sunday. Thanks! GL! - Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Detroit Lions on Sunday. We covered with the Lions on Monday night and while we were fortunate to get a late TD, we probably should not have had to come to that. After all, the Lions came up empty on three previous trips in the red-zone. Detroit actually outgained Chicago, 340-296, but a minus-4 turnover margin did them in. While QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson (probable) draw most of the media's attention, the Lions' defense has been strong this season, ranked 8th in total yards allowed per game and 6th against the pass. That defense will face a rookie in Russell Wilson who has played like a veteran at home, but a rookie on the road. Wilson has completed just 58.9% of his passes away from home with 2 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Seattle is 1-3 SU on the road with their only win coming in a 16-12 victory in Carolina. I suspect the sluggish Seattle offense (31st in total yards, passing yards, and scoring) will be "just what the doctor ordered" for Detroit to land one in the win column. The Lions' offense is 4th in the league, averaging over 406 yards per game and they own the 2nd best passing offense at 307 yards per game. Look for Stafford to benefit facing man coverage. It's his favorite type of defense to attack and he'll get his chances on Sunday. Defensively, without much of a passing game to worry about, I expect the Lions' to stack the run, putting the onus of the offense squarely on Wilson's shoulders. Seattle heads into this one on a 9-20-1 ATS slide on the road. Meanwhile, after covering the spread in two of their last three games, NFL home favorites with .250-.400 W-L records (SU) are 38-12 ATS if facing a team with a winning SU record. I'm laying the short points with the Lions on Sunday. Thanks! GL! - Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Lions on Monday night. We're hearing a lot about Chicago's start to the season that has them on top in the "Black and Blue" division. But the schedule has been favorable and I do believe they're in for a tough one tonight. The Bears' defense has been receiving a lot of praise. But the fact is, their version of the Cover-2 is middle-of-the-pack against the pass, allowing over 225 yards per game. And it should be noted the numbers came against Andrew Luck in his first NFL start, a Rams offense that ranks 25th through the air, and the 32nd ranked passing offense of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Chicago couldn't handle the Packers and they were fortunate to face Tony Romo in meltdown mode...a night when Romo's receivers were just as mistake prone as he was. This will be a tough matchup for Chicago, facing a Detroit offense that ranks 2nd in the league in total yards per game and in passing yards per game. Jay Cutler will likely have to make some plays tonight. The Lions' defense is in the top-10 in total yards per game and they're 10th against the run. I doubt they'll be a "sitting duck" for the Chicago ground game like in recent years. Chicago's offense has not been one you can "bank on" in recent years. They're 4-17 ATS after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. Meanwhile, the Lions showed a lot of grit in their win over Philadelphia and they're on a 6-0 ATS run off a SU road win. More of the same. I'm grabbing the points with the Lions on Modnday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night. Last week's early line in Las Vegas had Pittsburgh listed as a 3-point favorite. Obviously, the underdog has little value left in this one. But the line adjustment isn't the only reason I'm backing the road team in this divisional matchup. Yes, Pittsburgh has battled injuries all season and are once again faced with key injury issues this week. But I expect Pittsburgh's problems to bring this team together on both sides of the line of scrimmage. The Bengal passing game is the strength of their offense. But on Sunday night, they'll face a Steeler pass defense that ranks 4th in the NFL against the pass. Cinci must be able to establish something they don't have...a consistent and solid ground game. They're 21st in the league in that category and face a Steeler stop unit that allows just 95 yards rushing per game. With no ground game to worry about, Pittsburgh will be able to turn up the heat against a Bengal offensive line that has allowed 17 sacks in six games. Meanwhile, I expect Pittsburgh's 7th-ranked passing offense to have little trouble with the Bengals' middle of the pack defense. The Steelers own outstanding perimeter receivers and Big Ben (probable) should have little trouble against a Cinci defense that was gashed through the air last week by the Browns. Cinci enters this one on a 1-9-2 ATS slide in conference action and 0-6-2 ATS in divisional play. The Steelers have never lost SU with Tomlin as HC when taking the field with a losing record. They have won 10 in a row SU off an outright loss (9-1 ATS) by an average score of 27-10. Pittsburgh is on a 4-0 SU/ATS run against the Bengals and they're 13-3-1 ATS in Cincinnati. I'm sticking with the better team...the better coached team...and the line value. I'm backing the Steelers on Sunday night. Thanks! GL! - Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Ravens on Sunday. This marks the third straight week I have played against Houston and I expect to be 3-0 ATS by the time this one goes final. I said in last week's analysis that Houston would miss LB Brian Cushing, that he was not only their defensive leader, but one of the most significant defensive players in the league. Green Bay lit-up the Houston defense with Cushing sidelined by injury and I believe his absence means much more to this game than Baltimore's defensive injuries to Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb. Webb is more important to the Ravens than Lewis, but Cushing was simply playing at another level. I expect Ray Rice to get plenty of "touches" in this one, which keeps the Houston defense honest. Then look for Joe Flacco to stretch the Houston secondary with Torrey Smith (18.8 yards per reception) with Anquan Bolden, Jacoby Jones, and TE Dennis Pitta also contributing. And finally, we know what HC Gary Kubiak will do if his team builds a lead...he'll likely run the ball and play "keep-away" like he had his offense do against the Jets, which ended in an underdog ATS cover for New York backers. Baltimore heads into this one on a 13-4 ATS run with Harbaugh as HC when they're on the road following one or more SU losses. They're 7-1-1 ATS against teams with a winning record. Houston is on a 0-6 ATS slide against teams that average at least 6 yards per play. Baltimore was a 7 1/2 point favorite when these two met in January. I don't feel Sunday's situation calls for a 14 1/2 point line adjustment. I'm grabbing the points with the Ravens. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Rams on Sunday. I'm involved in a Green Bay game for the third straight week after cashing with the Packers last weekend and against them (Indy) two weeks ago. The Rams made one of the best off-season moves when they hired Jeff Fisher as HC. St. Louis is playing great football on the defensive side of the line of scrimmage, having held their last three opponents to a grand total of just 33 points. They're 7th in the league in total yards allowed and 5th against the pass and just held Miami to 192 total yards in a misleading loss last weekend in South Beach. St. Louis lost the game 17-14, but gained 462 yards, 270 yards more than they allowed. QB Sam Bradford is doing a great job of creating extra time for his receivers to gain separation. The duo-RB tandem of Steven Jackson and Daryl Richardson will keep the Packer defense honest. Richardson owns breakaway, darting speed which complements Jackson's style to perfection. This is simply a tough spot for Green Bay in my book - and we have seen them "fold" in a couple of tough situations already this season. Green Bay is 1-6 ATS off a cover and 0-4 ATS off a SU win. Meanwhile, the Rames are on a 6-1 ATS run overall, and they're on a 4-0-1 ATS run at home. I'm grabbing the points with the Rams on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the 49ers on Thursday night. While most of the NFL was surprised with the way SFO was dominated this past Sunday, we were not. We had the Giants on these pages. I suspect Jim Harbaugh had little trouble getting his team's attention following the severe butt-kicking. Harbaugh has had no trouble refocusing the troops off a SU loss since he's been roaming the sideline. The 49ers have not lost back-to-back games since Harbaugh took over as HC. In fact, they have not even allowed an offensive TD following a defeat. They head into Thursday on a 7-0, 100% ATS run off an upset SU loss, winning those seven games by an average score of 23-11. With Harbaugh, the Niners are 10-2 ATS in all home games, outscoring the opposition by an average of 27-14. Seattle is off the big win over New England. The Seahawks were outgained 475-368 and New England left a lot of chances to put the game away on the table, including coming away with only 3 points on three different chances in the red zone. And just two of Seattle's final 12 possessions went for more than 27 yards. As much as I like Seattle QB Russell Wilson, I believe the rookie is in for a long evening against an angry 49er defense on Thursday night. SFO will look to stuff the run - which means Wilson will have to produce plays with his arm. Seattle is averaging just 169.7 yards passing per game...it's not what they want to have to do. I believe this is one of those "perfect storm" situations with SFO off an embarrasing home loss and young Seattle off a fortunate win over mighty New England...with a short week to prep thrown in the mix. The Seahawks are 0-4 ATS within the division and they have covered just 5 of their last 21 against teams that complete at least 64% of their passes. Meanwhile, to go along with the 7-0 and 10-2 ATS spots mentioned above, the 49ers are on a 19-6-2 ATS run off a SU loss, overall. I'm laying the points with San Francisco on Thursday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Chargers on Monday night. SDG is used to laying some points when they host the Broncos, but they're only laying 1 point in this one, thanks to Peyton Manning's presence. But I believe the line has moved in the wrong direction. SDG is off a tough loss in New Orleans, but I expected it and released the Saints on these pages. The loss combined with Manning's passing numbers the last two weeks have given us value with the home team. And let's not forget Denver has allowed 89 points combined to Atlanta, Houston, and New England. SDG may not be at the level of those teams, but they're great at stopping the run, ranked third in the NFL, which means Denver will have to rely on the intermediate passing game once again - and SDG can force mistakes with Cason & Weddle more than capable of picking off an errant pass or two. But the bottom line for me is that we are getting solid line value with the home team. The Chargers are a 1-point favorite as I post this play. The Bolts have averaged laying nearly 7 1/2 points the last seven times they have hosted the Broncos. Denver heads into SDG on a 0-4 ATS slide on the road, while the Chargers are on a 7-0 ATS run against AFC teams and 4-0 ATS off a SU loss. The Bolts are also on an 8-2-2 ATS run against the Broncos. Thanks & GL! - Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Packers on Sunday night. I went against Houston on these pages last week and we cashed with the underdog NY Jets. I went against Green Bay and cashed with the Colts. This puts the Packers, who also lost outright, in a 6-1 ATS spot when coming off an outright loss and 10-2 ATS off a spread loss. Now, Houston is laying more than a FG (as I post this) to a Green Bay team that has not been a regular season underdog in nearly two years when Aaron Rodgers has been on the field. Yes, Green Bay isn't without a few key injuries, but Houston has some missing parts also, including their top defender, Brian Cushing, who suffered a torn ACL against the Jets. While very few individuals make a difference, Cushing is one of those few. Green Bay may find the intermediate, middle of the field routes a little more manageable with Cushing sidelined. And what's likely to be a running game by committee, may find a few more openings on the ground, also. Aaron Rodgers is still one of the best at creating when nothing is there. And his team, while 2-3 SU, are just a couple of plays and one bad replacement-official call away from a 4-1 mark. While Green Bay has taken on a tough slate, Houston, while giving them the credit they deserve, have built their record in favorable situations. Green Bay was in a desperate mood when they whipped the Bears and they're in a major spot again on Sunday. A win here and they have a solid shot to reel off three more wins before going into their bye week, which would put them at 6-3 SU. The Packers are on a 9-2 ATS run against teams with a winning record and they're 6-0 ATS with McCarthy as HC when they're on the road against teams that hold their opponents to 17 or fewer ppg. I'm grabbing the points with the Packers on Sunday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the NY Giants on Sunday. All we have heard all week long is that the 49ers are in big-time revenge. Yes, we know SFO has playoff revenge on their mind, but postseason revenge means very little ATS-wise in the NFL. The fact of the matter is that the Giants play a tough brand of football away from home. NYG owns excellent speed rushers up front on defense - maybe the most athletic SFO's offensive line will have faced so far this season. While the Giants' DE's haven't piled-up the sacks, they can create havoc that Alex Smith hasn't faced since the Minnesota game, which ended in SFO's only loss of the season. The Niners are off a 45-3 pasting of the Buffalo Bills and they're on a 4-11-2 ATS slide off a SU win by more than 14 points. Meanwhile, the G-men are on an 8-2-1 ATS overall run and they're on a red-hot 8-1-1 ATS run against teams with a winning record. New York lifts their level of play when the level of competition rises. I believe they will do so again in this one. I'm taking the points with the Giants on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. Buffalo was the most bet team when it came to prop bets and futures before the season began according to a major sports book in Las Vegas. I wasn't "buying" as much as some, and in fact, one of my top plays this season was a play on the Jets over Buffalo in week-one. Arizona was a team most in Vegas didn't think stood a chance. But here they are with just one loss through five weeks of action. But with the teams playing practically to the opposite of what was expected we have a line adjustment that I believe is a little too much. Arizona plays great defense, but has little to rely upon when they have possession of the football. They're not a team that can consistently rely on a passing game. And it has been strong QB play and excellent offensive work that Buffalo has struggled against. Losing to New England and San Francisco is nothing to be ashamed of. The Patriots rank #1 in the NFL in total yards per game, while the 49ers are 6th. Meanwhile, this week's opponent, Arizona, ranks second to last, 31st in the league, averaging just 273 yards per game. They have failed to reach 300 yards of offense in any of their five games this season and they may struggle against Buffalo's pass rush due to a lack of a running game to keep the Bills "honest." And let's not forget, the Bills may have been smoked by the Pats & Niners, but held their previous two opponents to 14 and 17 points in a pair of Buffalo double digit wins. Arizona heads into this one on a 16-30 ATS slide as a favorite of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points, while the Bills are on a 16-5 ATS run on the road after allowing at least 35 points. I'm grabbing the points with the Bills on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday. Last time out, the Cowboys out-gained the Bears by a 430-360 margin and had a 26-18 first down advantage. But thanks to a Tony Romo meltdown (5 INTs), the Cowboys lost 34-18. Romo's horrible performance is our gain. Most have jumped ship when it comes to the Cowboys and their signal caller. But this is a great spot to jump back in. Dallas hasn't played for 13 days by the time this one kicks off and they're on a 7-1 ATS run off a bye week, making the most of their time off. And I do believe the Baltimore defense is vulnerable to the Dallas attack. The Ravens rank 24th in total yards allowed per game. I have not been overly impressed with the new-look Raven offense. Take the opening week game against Cincinnati off the board and the Ravens have averaged just 21.5 ppg. Last weekend, they were held to 3 FGs...9 points - by the KC Chiefs, who turned the ball over four times, yet Baltimore managed just 298 total yards. Joe Flacco connected on just 13 of 27 passes for 187 yards with an INT and 4 sacks. Underdogs in Dallas games have been the way to go, currently on a 22-4-1 ATS. And again, Dallas had last week off, while this will be the 6th straight game for Baltimore, who has Houston up next. Dallas is on a 6-0 ATS run as an underdog of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points with Garrett as HC. They're 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a winning home record. Meanwhile, the Ravens enter on a 1-5 ATS slide at home. I'm taking the points with the Cowboys on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the NY Jets on Monday night. The Houston Texans may be the "real deal," but their schedule has not been thus far. Beating up on Miami with Ryan Tannehill taking his first ever NFL snap means little...as do wins against Jacksonville and Tennessee. The Denver Broncos will give any team problems with Peyton Manning and the offense, but the Denver defense leaves a lot to be desired. Yes, the Jets have underwhelmed and bring a 2-2 record to tonight's fight. But New York will double-up TE's to help the ground game and use a dink-and-dunk passing game in an attempt to take what Houston gives them. Let's not forget the Texans allow 4.3 yards per carry in 2012. While the loss to the 49ers was ugly, losing to the Steelers and Niners is nothing to be ashamed of. This Jets' team has faced a tougher four-game slate than the Texans and while we can't fault a team for who they play...and beat, we can see that they're a tad overrated. The Texans are the public's "flavor of the month" and we are getting value with the big home dog, as far as I'm concerned. The Jets fit a 32-10 ATS league-wide spot playing on underdogs of 3 1/2 to 10 points if they're off a loss by at least 14 points and are averaging 18 to 23 ppg, provided they're playing a team that scores an average of at least 27 ppg. New York is also on a 14-3 ATS run at home off a home loss, outscoring those 17 teams by an average of 23-16. Those two situations combine for a 46-13 ATS mark. I'm grabbing the points with the Jets on Monday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Saints on Sunday night. I expect to see the most motivated New Orleans' squad we have seen all season. The Saints are a loss away from a 0-5 SU start, but I'm betting the losing streak ends here. There's very little wrong with the Saints' offense. After all, they're one of just eight NFL teams averaging over 400 yards per game and despite their 0-4 record, Drew Brees is on target to throw 40 TD passes this season. The Chargers enter with a 3-1 SU record, but the wins came against Oakland, Tennessee, and a Kansas City team that turned the ball over six times against the Chargers. SDG's only step-up game ended in disaster, losing 27-3 at home. In the win over KC, the Chargers actually finished the game with six fewer first downs than the Chiefs and were held to just 293 total yards on 4.9 yards per play. The Bolts' one-time, talent-rich offense is not so hot in 2012. The current version ranks just 24th in the league in total yards per game. New Orleans heads into this extremely important contest on a 7-0 ATS run at home against teams that allow at least 235 yards passing per game. The Saints won those games by an average final score of 40-17. They're 6-0 ATS at home off at least one cover, winning by an average of 20 ppg. Those two spots add up to a 13-0 combined mark. I'm laying the points with the New Orleans Saints on Sunday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Titans on Sunday afternoon. Minnesota has surprised a few people, not only by their winning record, but also due to their defensive play. But the Vikings are over-valued in this one. I went against Minnesota last week and they beat me...and the Detroit Lions, despite the fact the Vikings finished the game with only 227 total yards. Special teams happened to be the difference in the game - Minnesota scored on a punt return and a kickoff return. Their 3-1 start has led to a line they shouldn't be laying from a power rating point of view. And their style of offense, which doesn't include a deep passing game, plays right into Tennessee's strengths on defense. Offensively, Matt Hasselbeck is better suited to lead Tennessee in "winnable" games and he's expected to start for the injured Jake Locker in this one. One final note - RB Chris Johnson finally kicked it into gear last week rushing for 141 yards on 5.6 yards per carry against Houston. In fact, the Titans outgained the powerful Texans, but couldn't hang in the game, thanks to a minus-3 turnover ratio. Look for Johnson's ground game to lead to more time for Hasselbeck in passing situations. The Titans are on a 20-7 ATS run after scoring 15 points or less in their previous game (scored 14 against Houston). Meanwhile, the Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games and 4-10 ATS off a cover. I'm taking the points with Tennessee on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Colts on Sunday. Indy has had their problems at times defending the run, but they are facing a Green Bay offense that won't likely be able to take advantage of it. The Packers have struggled up front on offense and run-blocking has been a serious problem. The Colts don't expect to have Pat Angerer back yet for this game, but Robert Mathis is expected to be fine and we may see the return of Dwight Freeney. Whether the veteran sack-master returns or not, this is simply a solid matchup for the Colts' run defense and their pass rush. Let's not forget that Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 16 times already this season. Offensively, Andrew Luck and his offense had an extra week to prep for Green Bay. The play of the Colt offensive tackles has improved since week-one, and this is a Green Bay defense that just gave up 474 yards and 25 first downs to New Orleans. Luck has the arm and the accuracy to stretch the vulnerable Green Bay defense and I believe he will, which will loosen up the Packers' up front. Add in the fact we have a home dog off a bye...and getting a TD - and we have a very live spot. The Colts are on a 4-0 ATS run off a SU loss, while the Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five overall. I'm grabbing the points with Indianapolis on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the short points with the Eagles on Sunday night. The NY Giants were the side "no one" wanted last week when they played at Carolina. The G-men were banged-up, then went out and crushed the Panthers 36-7. This week, the Giants seem to be the "flavor of the week" for many of the same people who wanted no part of them a week ago. I believe Philadelphia undervalued in this spot. The Eagles are off a loss in Arizona, a tough situation, combined with the fact the Cardinals play a great brand of attack-style defense. Now, with Michael Vick's demise as starting QB greatly exaggerated, I expect the Eagle offense to be too much for the Giants to handle. One of the factors in this one will likely be a Philly offense utilizing more high-percentage pass attempts than they have tried in previous weeks. That's their best shot to beat the Giants' defense to the punch...and that's what I believe will be done. Philadelphia has dominated this series of late, including a 7-1 ATS mark the last eight times they've met. The Giants have gained a lot of yardage the last two weeks, but teams that have gained at least 450 yards in each of their previous two games are 11-34 ATS provided that team allows at least 5.4 yards per play and are listed as an underdog or a pick. The Giants fit the bill. Finally, Philadelphia is 12-3 ATS off a loss by 21 or more points with Andy Reid as HC. I'm laying the short number with the Eagles on Sunday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Detroit Lions on Sunday afternoon. Detroit is off to a slow start and the main problem has been a defense that has allowed 23, 27, and 44 points on the season. But Detroit gets "just what the doctor ordered" when the Vikings roll into town. Minnesota ranks 29th in the league with just six passes of 20 yards or more. Minnesota is also in a tough spot after playing what was a near-perfect game for them in the win over San Francisco. The win puts the Vikings in a tough team situation. They're on a 0-6 ATS slide off a home SU win, losing those six games by an average score of 28-15. In fact, Minnesota has covered just 2 of their last 14 off an upset win as a home underdog. Offensively, the Lions expect to have Matthew Stafford on the field for this one. Detroit can also offer a strong ground game now with RB Mikel LeShoure, who ran for 100 yards last Sunday, his first game after returning from injury and a two-game suspension. The run-pass combination should be too much for a Vikings' secondary, that's not too hot as it is, and now must help out against the run. I'm laying the points with an angry and undervalued Detroit team on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Patriots on Sunday night. Facing Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots off a loss against a team they were expected to cruise against is not a great formula for an opponent, even if that opponent is the Baltimore Ravens. The Patriot offense has been sluggish thus far, but look for Wes Welker to become more of the offense in week-3. New England also signed a couple of additional offensive players this week and brought back Deion Branch. And let's not forget that all is not bad. After all, Steven Ridley did run for 71 yards on 18 carries one week ago. A couple of tweaks here and there against a mediocore defense and all should be well for the Patriots. Baltimore's defense was shredded by the Eagles last week, but the Ravens stayed in the game thanks to a slew of Philly turnovers. Baltimore was out-gained 486-325 last weekend and the new no-huddle offense was squashed by an aggressive Eagle defense. New England will employ the same style on the stop end now that the blueprint has been laid. And despite Tom Brady's poor numbers in the last six meetings against the Ravens, the Patriots have won five of the matchups. New England is on a 34-16-1 ATS run off a SU loss. They're 13-4 ATS on the road off an upset loss. And, the Patriots are on a perfect 7-0, 100% run on the road when the total is in the 45 1/2 to 49 point range (49 at time of post). I'm taking the points with the Patriots on Sunday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Raiders on Sunday. Oakland's first two weeks didn't go well, but the results were not as bad as it looks if you dig a little deeper. First of all, Oakland lost in week-1 to San Diego mainly due to a backup long-snapper who couldn't hike the ball to the punter, resulting in multiple special team errors that changed the course of the game. Last week, the Raiders were in a horrible spot, following their Monday night contest with a trip across the country. The Raiders were down by one score (21-13) with 12 minutes to go in the game, then simply "hit the wall" leading to a 35-13 loss. The wide margin loss, their 0-2 record, and Pittsburgh's big win over the Jets has given us value on the home dog. I had the Steelers on these pages last week, but will go against them in this one. The Steelers will once again be without Troy Polamalu, James Harrison, and Rashard Mendenhall. The running game is 30th in the NFL and the offense, due in part to injuries, is slow to learn new OC Todd Haley's offense. And as far as Oakland is concerned, they are in a now or never situation on Sunday. I believe they'll slow the mediocre Steeler offense, and look for Carson Palmer (373 yards passing last week) to take advantage of the banged-up Steeler defense. Pittsburgh is on a 1-10 ATS slide in non-division road games, and they're 0-8 ATS off a win by 10 or more points. And finally, the Raiders are on a 6-0 ATS run after throwing for 300 or more yards in their previous game. That's a 24-1 combined mark. I'm grabbing the points with the Raiders on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the NY Jets on Sunday. I had the Jets as a Knockout release in week-1 and we cashed an easy 48-28 win over Buffalo. I went against the Jets last weekend and New York was no match for Pittsburgh as the Steelers won 27-10. I'm back on Rex Ryan's squad in this one. New York has dominated this series with an 11-3 ATS mark in Miami. New York will present Miami rookie QB Ryan Tannehill with plenty of things he has not seen at the level he will on Sunday. Tannehill will face the toughest 3-4 base defense he has seen in his life. The quickness of the Jets' defense along with their aggressive approach will likely create mistakes by the young signal caller. Yes, Darrelle Revis may be sidelined once again (concussion - questionable) but I don't believe it'll matter in this matchup. Ryan will focus his defense on stopping Reggie Bush and putting the onus of the offense on Tannehill's shoulders. Offensively, the Jets will face a Miami defense that just got shredded for over 370 yards passing by Carson Palmer. Miami won 35-13 on a big second half, but they were catching Oakland in a very tough spot. Sanchez and his skill players tore through Buffalo in week-1 and I expect similar results in this one. So, what we have is a fierce Jets' defense against an offense led by a rookie-QB who has yet to grasp the west-coast attack his coach is trying to implement. And let's not forget, the Jets held Miami to 11.6 ppg in their previous three meetings. We're getting value thanks to Miami's wide margin win over Oakland and New York's 17 point loss to Pittsburgh. Miami is just 4-14-3 in their last 21 September games and I'm betting against the "Fish" in this one. I'm laying the points with the Jets on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. The Jets were my week-1 Knockout and rewarded us with an easy 48-28 win over Buffalo. Obviously, I'm not as down on the Jets as most. But I do believe they're in trouble in this one. First of all, one of the best...if not thee best CB in the league, Darrelle Revis (concussion) is not expected to start in this one. Revis is so good at luring an opposing QB into making mistakes...he will be missed if he doesn't play, however, I'm still on Pittsburgh even if he does. Secondly, for the first time this season, the Jets will face a QB with a strong & accurate arm. And finally, after eating up the Bills in the first half last week, Mark Sanchez and company will face a much stiffer challenge this week when they meet the Pittsburgh defense with Ryan Clark back in the mix. With Clark on the field, Troy Polamalu can "gamble" because he knows Clark can eliminate mistakes. Last week, without Clark, Polamalu took a wrong angle on a short route by Demaryius Thomas. That short route turned into a 71-yard TD connection. Clark normally cleans up any messes before they can happen. The Jets are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine on the road, while the Steelers are on an 8-0 ATS run off a SU loss. I'm laying the points with Pittsburgh.

I'm taking the points with the Rams on Sunday afternoon. No denying RG-3 was terrific in his first NFL start. But I feel his team's success in week-one was an indictment on the New Orleans Saints, who is being coached by a third-string head coach, for lack of a better term. The Rams are coached by one of the best NFL minds in the business in Jeff Fisher and I suspect Fisher will do his best to establish the ground game behind Steven Jackson right from the opening series. Let's not forget that last year, Jackson had 32 runs of at least 10 yards. Defensively, the Rams will bring a blitz package to test Griffin - something the Saints didn't do well enough. And while they're young, the Rams' secondary is in better shape than last year's version...just ask Matthew Stafford (3 INTs) and the Detroit Lion receivers. The Skins are in a 27-7 NFL play-against situation. You play against teams off an upset win against an oppponent off a road cover, provided that team lost SU as an underdog. Rookie QBs favored on the road are 0-1 SU/ATS (Seattle week-1) I'm taking the points with the Rams on Sunday.

I'm taking the points with the Seahawks on Sunday. I had the Under on these pages when Dallas faced the Giants and we cashed. I went against Seattle last weekend when they lost SU/ATS on the road in Arizona. I look to make it 3-0 with games involving these two teams in this one. As usual, we're getting no value if you wish to back the public Dallas Cowboys. "America's Team" has covered just 4 of their last 19 as a favorite and they're 0-6 ATS when the line is in the +3/-3 range (Cowboys -3 at the time of this release). Matchup-wise, the Seahawks finished 4th in the NFL, holding teams to 3.7 yards per carry a season ago. Just about everyone is back in their front seven on defense. This means Tony Romo may have to create over the top. That's a tall order in this environment...and against a decent secondary. Offensively, as Pete Carroll has stated, Russell Wilson eliminates mistakes before they develop better than any rookie Carroll said he's ever been around. I believe Seattle will reward their outstanding fans with a win on Sunday. I'm taking the points with the Seahawks, my Shocker of the Month.

I'm laying the points with the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday. The Ravens are the "flavor of the week" after crushing the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday night. While Joe Flacco shined in his new hurry-up offense, the porous Bengal defense certainly didn't present the type of challenge the Eagles' defense will. Philly will attempt to blitz from the perimeter, which I believe will slow down the Baltimore offense. Then again, the Eagles can blitz with success from anywhere on the field. Remember, this is a unit that finished last season tied for the most sacks (50) in the league. I believe the Eagles own the tools to throw a wrench into Baltimore's new offense. Offensively, Michael Vick made some horrible throws last week and finished with four interceptions. But Vick was rusty after barely taking any snaps in preseason play due to a rib injury. I believe Vick will be much safer with the football in this one. And there's nothing wrong with the way they moved the ball one week ago, gaining 456 yards, while holding the Browns to 210 yards. The Eagles enter on an 80% ATS run going back to last season, while the Ravens are on a 2-8 ATS slide playing on a Sunday following a Monday night game. They're also 3-9-1 ATS following a SU win by more than 14 points. I'm backing the Eagles, minus the points on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Chargers on Monday night. The Oakland Raiders have made coaching changes and schematic changes in the off season. But the team didn't do a lot as far as top notch player personnel is concerned. They're thin on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Oakland will also use multiple schemes on defense...abandoning the trademark overload of blitz packages. While the changes may improve things down the road, I believe it's going to take some time for the unit to develop a rhythm. Let's remember the Raiders ranked 29th in the NFL last season on defense, poor against both the pass and the run. SDG will challenge Oakland with the arm of Philip Rivers. And SDG's offensive line gets "just what the doctor ordered" with the Raiders defensive front and new schemes, in my opinion. RB Ryan Mathews has been ruled out for Monday and they'll start "newbie" Mike Harris at OLT, but the Chargers will start the capable Ronnie Brown at RB with La'Ron McClain and Curtis Brinkley also seeing action. The "Bolts" defense will face an Oakland offense that's quite thin at wide receiver and may have to start undrafted rookie Rod Streater with Jacoby Ford ruled out. The Raiders are also struggling at TE as they start the season. This doesn't bode well for Oakland as they attempt to keep the SDG defense "honest." Let's also not forget that while the Chargers finished 8-8 last season, they were two net close losses away from a 10-6 mark. San Diego heads into this one on a 4-0 ATS run against AFC opposition and they're 8-2 ATS in their last 10 in Oakland. Meanwhile, the Raiders are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five at home. I'm backing the Chargers on Monday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday afternoon. I am a big Russell Wilson fan and I believe he's going to have a fine NFL career. But I will play against the rookie QB as a road favorite in his first NFL start. Since 2006, rookie QBs that have started at least eight games in a season have a horrible outright record, but they have cashed 55.4% ATS (102-82 ATS with a few pushes). This means they're normally covering when getting points, not when laying points on the road. Russell Wilson will be facing the quickest athletes he's ever seen in "real" game action...as will all of Sunday's rookie QBs. In Wilson's case, he'll face a secondary led by Patrick Peterson. And let's not forget how well Arizona was playing down the stretch last season, going 7-2 SU in their final nine games, including a 5-0 SU run at home. Yes, the Cardinals enter Sunday on a 5-0 SU run in front of the home folks. Arizona won't have OT Levi Brown, but they have been practicing and playing without him long enough to develop a chemistry up front. I believe Arizona will be able to run on Seattle with their strong ground game and eventually get their WR corps, led by Larry Fitzgerald into the mix. Arizona is on a 5-1 ATS run at home against Seattle, while the Seahawks have covered just 17 of their last 54 on the road (2 pushes) and they're 7-19-1 ATS on natural grass. Russell Wilson may be in for a fine NFL career, but I'm taking the points with Arizona on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm laying the points with the NY Jets on Sunday. According to Cantor Race and Sports Books, the team that has drawn the most money regarding NFL futures in 2012 is the Buffalo Bills. I'm not "buying," at least not in week-one. The Bills' offensive line is not as good as New York's, despite the Jets' problems on the right side. And in fact, I expect the outstanding and well-coached Jet defense to clamp down on the Bills' offense all game long. Let's not forget that QB Ryan Fitzpatrick did not play well down the stretch last season, and now his favorite target, Stevie Johnson is nursing a groin injury. For what it's worth, I'd have played the Jets here, whether Johnson was 100% or not. Look for NYJ to stuff the Bills' run and force the mediocre Fitzpatrick to attempt to beat them through the air. Do that and the Jets have gone a long way in winning this game. As far as the Jets' offense is concerned, the receivers certainly aren't great, but we only saw about 70% of their offense in preseason, according to Tony Sporano (OC). By the way, Buffalo's offense was no better than New York's. I rate New York's offense a little better than the Bills heading into the regular season, while the Jets' defense is one of the best in the league. We hear the media ranting about how "awful" the Jets are in one breath and that they'll finish 8-8 in the next. I think most would agree that 8-8 is not where the Jets want to be, but 8-8 teams are certainly not "awful." Let's also take note that the Jets were 9-point favorites the last time they hosted the Bills (November 2011). New York is on a 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS run against the Bills, winning by an average margin of 16 ppg. And while the Jets are on a 7-3 ATS September run, the Bills are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven road games. I'm laying the short points with the Jets on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm taking the points with the Giants in Super Bowl XLVI. The best QB in the NFL since week-14 has been Eli Manning, hands down. He's thrown for 923 yards on 7.5 yards per pass with 8 TD passes and just 1 INT in the 3 playoff games, alone. The offense kicked it into gear once the running game got healthy this season and the defense is simply disruptive. While it can be said that both teams were helped by good fortunate in winning their conf championship games, (49er fumbled punts & Balt missed FG), the bottom line is that these are the teams we have - and the underdog is the complete team of the two, as far as I'm concerned. New England caught a major break in the AFC Championship when Baltimore wasted almost an entire 1st quarter with horrible play calling by OC Cam Cameron. Cameron ran the ball on 1st down and 2nd down - then tried to have Flacco throw the ball on 3rd and long. The results: Three 3-and-outs and minus-6 total yards through the first 10 minutes of the game. Over the final 50 minutes, the offense opened up and Flacco finished with 306 yards passing with a pair of TDs and a chance to tie the game late in the 4th with a short FG attempt. New England can mask their defensive problems all they want - they just don't have the players to execute against a passing game like the one they're going to face on February 5. Add in the improved Giants' ground game and I believe New York will have little trouble moving the ball. Meanwhile, the Giants' defense gets to the QB with their down linemen more often than not. This means the LBs and DBs can do their job against the pass, rather having to "help out." Back to the Pats' defense for a moment. Since losing 24-20 to the Giants in early November, the Pats have won 10 straight and they deserve credit for doing so. But not too much credit. The porous Pats' defense has faced QBs Mark Sanchez, Tyler Palko, Vince Young, Dan Orlavsky, Rex Grossman, Tim Tebow (twice), Matt Moore, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Joe Flacco. Ravens's QB Flacco is the best of the bunch - and Baltimore certainly doesn't possess a high-tech passing game. Facing Eli and his flock of receivers is a huge step up in competiton and I don't believe the Patriot offense will do enough to "keep up." While this is obviously a neutral site game, it is "away" from home for both teams. And Tom Coughlin teams enter on a 17-5 ATS run away from home against defenses that allow at least 7 yards passing per attempt. The Giants are on a 10-2 ATS run against defenses that allow at least 260 yards passing per game - the Pats allow over 290 per contest. And New York is on an 8-0 ATS run as a playoff underdog. Meanwhile, the normally over-valued Patriots are on a 1-7 ATS playoff slide. We are going to hear about David Tyree's "miracle" catch and New England's "revenge" for Super Bowl XLII leading up to kickoff. But "revenge" is an overrated term. I'm taking the points with the under-valued NY Giants in Super Bowl XLVI. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the 49ers on Sunday. To go against San Francisco in this one means you are getting the worst of the number. When these two teams met at Candlestick in November, SFO was a 4 point favorite. They won the game 27-20 and have done nothing to disappoint since. This week, SFO is laying less than a FG as a 2-point favorite. To go against SFO also means we would be jumping in the face of a 10-0-1 ATS run in the Niners last 11 home games going back to last season. They're 8-1 SU at home this season and 13-2 SU in their last 15 at "The Stick." As far as the game itself is concerned, the 49ers defense, #1 against the run, has the ability to turn the Giants into a one-dimensional offense. And as we all know by now, New York did not kick it into gear on offense until their running game got healthy. It's not a great ground game, but an effecient one down the stretch. But OLT David Diehl is going to have serious problems with DE Justin Smith. One of the arguments against SFO is that they benefitted from 5 Saint turnovers last week. Well, they have been forcing turnovers all season. It's what they do. And last week's results were a positive, not a negative. The Giants, meanwhile, have been susceptible to pass-catching TE's all season long and face one of the best in the business in Vernon Davis. Strong TE play can negate some of that Giant pass rush. We also now know that QB Alex Smith has matured and can handle the pressure when he needs to shoulder the offense. I already mentioned that SFO is on a 10-0-1 ATS run at home. They're also 6-0 ATS against teams that average at least 235 yards passing per game. SFO held those 6 teams to just over 12 ppg. I believe the value lies with the home team and I'm laying the points with the 49ers. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm taking the points with Baltimore on Sunday. We had a play on both of these teams this past weekend and split, cashing easily with the Patriots, but we came up short with the Ravens. New England certainly had big-time advantages facing an overrated Denver defense and a Tim Tebow-led offense. I like Tebow...but he's not yet an NFL starting QB and his weaknesses were exposed. But after facing a leaky Denver defense the Patriots will now face one of the best. The Ravens rank 3rd in total yards allowed. They're 4th against the pass, 2nd against the run, and 3rd in ppg allowed at 16.6 ppg. And unlike Denver, Baltimore owns the speed and depth to handle the Patriot receivers one-on-one. The Pats not only had extra time to prep for their opponent last week, but they were facing a banged-up Denver offense that was without their best receiver (Eric Decker). Stopping Ray Rice is not going to be easy. And while Joe Flacco has taken his share of knocks this season, he's still a legitimate starting QB. Flacco has topped 36-hundred yards passing each of the last 3 seasons and he has solid and underrated weaponry to get the ball to. While most talk about whether Anquan Boldin is healthy or not, the Patriots questionable secondary ought to be worried about how they're going to contain Torrey Smith and Lee Evans. The Ravens' pass catchers don't get enough credit. This is a speedy and talented corps. Yes, the Pats enter on a 9-game win streak. But they've faced Denver twice, Buffalo Miami, Washington, Indy, Philadelphia, the Chiefs, and the Jets. This is certainly a major step up in compeition - and I don't believe the New England defense is up to the task, ranked 31st in total yards allowed and against the pass. Finally, while Brady is obviously the much better QB compared to Flacco, the Raven signal-caller has a ton of playoff experience and knows how to win. The Patriots are on a 1-6 ATS playoff slide and I expect Baltimore to hang another "L" on the Pats in this one. I'm grabbing the points with the Ravens on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm laying the points with Baltimore on Sunday. I'm impressed and have nothing but respect for the job done by the Houston Texan's coaching staff, not to mention the players who have taken up the slack left by the numerous key injuries. It would have been nice to see just how far the Texans could have gone if Matt Schaub and Mario Williams (among others) had stayed healthy. The addition of Wade Phillips as DC has been tremendous - and he's shown he's in his element when calling the shots on the "stop side" of things rather than over-seeing the entire operation as a head coach. But as well as things have gone, I believe it all comes to an end on Sunday in Baltimore. T.J. Yates did not play well last week. The final score was truly misleading and Cinci's miscues helped Houston's cause as much as anyone who plays for the Texans...well, maybe other than J.J. Watt who's INT completely changed the contest. Houston has been able to hide Yates' inexperience with a steady dose of RB Arian Foster. But Yates is going to have to make plays in the passing game in this one. Baltimore checks-in with the league's 2nd best run defense, holding opponents to just over 92 yards rushing per game. The problem for Yates, besides the fact that Foster may not bust out - is that the Ravens are 4th in the NFL against the pass. Houston's defense has put up "sick" numbers themselves, but not in the regular season meeting with the Ravens. Baltimore won that October 16 game 29-14. The Ravens piled-up 402 yards on 6.2 yards per play. Joe Flacco topped 300 yards passing and RB Ray Rice topped the century mark on the ground. The Texans, who were quarterbacked by Schaub in the game, were held to 293 total yards and Foster was completely shut down gaining 49 yards on 15 carries. Now, with the Texans down to a 3rd string QB behind center, I expect an even wider margin victory for the Ravens. Houston is on a 1-4 ATS slide as a dog of 3 1/2 to 10 points. Meanwhile, the Ravens are on a 5-0-1 ATS run against teams with a winning record and they're on a long term 21-7 ATS run (2nd half of the season & postseason) against teams that rush for at least 130 yards per game. I'm laying the points with Baltimore on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm laying the points with New England on Saturday night. I had the Over last week and we cashed the ticket when Denver and Pittsburgh combined to score 52 points. I mentioned in that game that Ryan Clark's absence in the secondary would hurt the Steelers more than most thought. While the Pats have had their share of injuries on the defensive side of the ball this season, they have had plenty of time to prep for the unusual Denver attack - and they already faced the Tim Tebow offense once this season. Having said that, no adjustments are really necessary. New England made adjustments in the first meeting after a rough start. The Broncos gained 225 yards on 9.78 yards per play on their first 3 drives of the game, resulting in 16 points scored. But the Pats held Denver to 84 yards on 30 plays, or 2.8 yards per play, on 7 of Denver's next 8 possessions! The Denver offense is also hamstrung by the injury to Tebow's favorite target, Eric Decker, who is expected to miss the game. Denver is also banged-up on the defensive side of the football. It's a defense that I believe received too many "pats on the back" this season. After all, the "stop-unit" allowed over 24 ppg. They were no match against the high-powered, quick-strike offenses of Green Bay, Detroit, New England, and Buffalo. Those 4 teams piled-up 175 points (43.8 ppg) and 421.3 yards per game on 6.51 yards per play. QBs Rodgers, Stafford, Brady, and Fitzpatrick connected on 88 of 129 passes (68%) for 9.23 yards per pass, with 9 TDs and just 1 INT.! I expect more of the same against the high-powered Patriots again - and I doubt very much that Tebow and the not so healthy offense will keep up. Denver have covered just 6 of their last 21 on the road against teams with a winning home record. Meanwhile, during the second half of a season, the Patriots are 16-5 ATS against teams that average 175 yards passing or less. New England was too much in the regular season meeting and I believe they'll be too much again. I'm laying the points with the Patriots. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm taking the points with the 49ers on Saturday. New Orleans heads into this one having won 9 straight games, not having lost since October. Most of those wins came by double figures. Drew Brees has a very good stable of RBs to hand the ball to and throw the ball to out of the backfield. But unlike last weekend, the Saints are facing an extremely stingy and well-coached "stop-unit" this weekend. San Francisco is tops in the league against the run and they own the second best scoring mark allowing just 14.3 ppg. Slow down a big part of the Saints' offense and the Drew Brees' downfield passing game will have to adjust. I truly believe RB Pierre Thomas is going to have problems finding openings in the stout 49er defense. Offensively, SFO gets a bit of a bum rap. Many describe the 49er offensive attack as simply one that pounds the ball between the tackles. But at one point of the season...late in the season in fact, QB Alex Smith owned the league's top completion percentage on first down passing, connecting on 71% of his attempts. The offense had also attempted the least amount of 3rd down passes. This means the coaches were game-managing as well as any offensive staff in the league - limiting their QB's situations to commit costly turnovers, while not compromising the team's chances at scoring points. The current staff wasn't on the SFO sideline when these teams met last season. Most of the players are the same though, and SFO gave New Orleans all they could handle in a 25-22 Saints' win. The Niners ran for 142 yards on 5.46 yards per carry, while holding the Saints to 50 yards on 24 carries, or just over 2 yards per carry. This year's Saints have been gashed for 4.9 yards per carry and 6.1 yards per play. SFO is on an 11-2 ATS run against teams that allow at least 5.65 yards per play. They're 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 overall and 7-0-1 ATS this season at home. The matchups and parts are in place for an upset and I'm taking the points with the 49ers on Saturday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm taking the points with the Falcons on Sunday. Tom Coughlin's Giants have not always finished well down the stretch in regular season play. They finished well this season thanks to the inept Dallas Cowboys. In fact, the Giants won just 3 of their final 8 games, winning twice against Dallas and once against the hapless NY Jets. The Giants have gained just 1 more yard than they have allowed in their last 7 games of the regular season. Atlanta outgained 8 of their last 10 opponents, falling 22 yards shy of Carolina in a Falcon win and finishing dead-even in total yards against Houston. Atlanta owns a big advantage in this one with their wideouts and tight-end play against a weak Giants' pass defense. Give Matt Ryan time and he, Julio Jones, and Roddy White can burn NYG consistently. TE Tony Gonzalez will get plenty of chances, especially in the red zone where the Giants have been pretty bad against the pass. When the passing game loosens things up, ATL has Michael Turner to go to on the ground. Tough matchups for the Giants. Defensively, ATL will attack a suspect Giants' offensive line when it comes to pass blocking. I like Eli Manning. But I expect John Abraham and the ATL zone-blitz schemes to create enough trouble to keep Manning from having a big game. And Atlanta MLB Curtis Lofton will be a talented "spy" when it comes to slowing down Ahmad Bradshaw. Add it up and the matchups call for an Atlanta win. So do some of the angles. NFL road teams are 51-22 ATS in a +3/-3 line range if they hold the opposition to a range of 295 to 335 total yards per game, while the host gives up at least 370 yards per game. The Falcons are 6-0 ATS against teams that allow at least 24 ppg during the second half of the season, winning those games by an average of 32-15. Meanwhile, NYG is 0-6 ATS after winning 2 straight games by at least 14 points in each. New York hasn't won a playoff game since their Super Bowl 42 win over New England. The streak continues. I'm grabbing the points with Atlanta on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm taking the points with Cincinnati on Saturday. It's too bad Houston suffered so many key injuries during the season. A healthy Matt Schaub and Mario Williams (among others) would have made this team a true Super Bowl contender. But the Texans lost both along with backup QB Matt Leinart and here they are, in the wildcard round. T.J. Yates is the man behind center now - and while he looked sharp when he first took over for Leinart, the fact is, opponents have had defensive success against Yates down the stretch. Let's not forget that Houston QBs (including Jake Delhomme) were sacked 9 times over the final 3 games of the regular season...all ending in losses to Tennessee, Indianapolis, and Carolina. Yates did not throw a TD pass, but did throw 2 INTs in his final 2 complete games before getting knocked out of the season finale early in the contest. And he will be burdened by a left shoulder injury in this one. The hamstrung Houston offense faces the league's 7th stingiest defense in total yards allowed. The Bengals own a balanced stop unit, ranking 9th against the pass and 10th against the run, and they allow just 20 ppg. Houston will try to establish the run - and they might find some success. But they have run the ball extremely well and have still lost each of their last 3 games. Andy Dalton is the other rookie QB in this one. Dalton has battled illness this week, but he's expected to be fine on Saturday. An IV before the game and at the half should keep him strong for this one. The Bengals' offense will also look to establish the ground game early on, but I also expect to see some deep chances to A.J. Green early in the contest to loosen things up. The Bengals are on a 6-1-2 ATS run on the road and they're 9-2 ATS as a dog of less than 4 points. I expect Cincinnati to win the game, but my play is to take the points. The Bengals, plus the points on Saturday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm taking the points with the Cowboys on Sunday night. Dallas blew a chance to wrap up the NFC East down the stretch and one of the costly losses came at home against these NY Giants. But let's be honest, Dallas blew that game. The Giants get credit for coming from behind, but the Cowboys simply choked over the final 5 minutes of action. They do have a chance at redemption and a postseason spot and I believe they'll get the job done. Tony Romo is expected to be at or near 100% healthy for this contest. He lit-up the Giants' horrible pass defense just a few short weeks ago for 321 yards on 21 of 31 passing, with 4 TDs and no INTs. New York has not been able to do anything over the last couple of weeks to shore up the poor secondary play and I expect Dallas to light them up again. The Giants are truly out-manned on the backend. Dallas should also find plenty of room in the running game whether Felix Jones or Sammy Morris gets the majority of the carries. Dallas ran all over the Giants in the first meeting. But New York's issues go even further than defense. The offensive line has been messy and unreliable in pass protection and I expect Dallas to give the Giant's pass-blockers multiple pre-set looks. The Cowboys "should have" won the first meeting and I expect they will win the rematch. Dallas is on a 7-1 ATS run when getting points and they're on a 9-1 ATS run on the road following a double-digit divisional loss. Meanwhile, the G-men have covered just 4 of their last 17 home games after the first month of the season the last 3 years. They're 0-6-1 ATS as a home fave of 3 points or less. I'm backing the Dallas Cowboys, plus the points on Sunday night. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm taking the points with the Chargers on Sunday afternoon. We backed Oakland for 3 straight weeks when they beat San Diego, Chicago, and Minnesota. But the Raiders are in a fight for their playoff lives because they have gone just 1-3 SU since then. While the Chargers are out of the postseason picture and likely going to be hunting for a new HC after Sunday, they were right in the thick of things before last weekend's predictable loss in Detroit. SDG had won 3 straight in pretty easy fashion, including a big home win over a tough Baltimore defense. SDG enters this one with the better offensive talent even if Ryan Mathews is unable to go (doubtful). FB Mike Tolbert has been upgraded to probable, and that would help Curtis Brinkley if he gets the majority of the carries. The Charger running game will face an Oakland defense that allows 5.12 yards per carry. SDG can also attack Oakland down the middle of the field through the air, like many offenses have done to the Raiders this season. Besides the reasons already mentioned, the key factor in this one is simply line value and playing against public perception. When these teams met a few weeks ago, San Diego was laying 7 points. They're now a 3 point dog. I don't believe the Chargers lack of a postseason possibility is worth 10 points. Let's play against faulty public perception and back the Chargers. It should be noted that road teams in revenge of an upset loss as a favorite are on a 37-14 ATS run. And road non favorites in revenge and off a road loss are on a 65-29 ATS run. And finally, the Raiders have covered just 2 of their last 13 as a home fave of 3 points or less. I'm taking the points with San Diego on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm backing the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday. Much has been made of the Ravens home/road dichotomy as far as their level of play is concerned. But they're facing a team with a fading rookie QB and that's going to go a long way in deciding this game. Baltimore has had a couple of rough road outings, but they also beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh. There are a couple of scenarios that could secure the #2 seed in the AFC for the Ravens, but the bottom line is that they control their own situation. Win on Sunday and the 2-seed is theirs. The Bengals won't lie down...they need a win to wrap up a wildcard spot. They could still back in with a loss, but need some help to do so. Cincinnati's 2011 season reminds me much of Tampa Bay's last season. Give Marvin Lewis and an offense led by a rookie QB credit, but the main reason they're in the playoff hunt on week-17 is due to their soft schedule. And when the Bengals have stepped up in competition, the results have not gone so well going 1-7 SU against playoff bound teams or those still fighting for a chance to make the postseason. The schedule has certainly gotten tougher over the last 7 games and Andy Dalton has looked like a first-year QB, throwing as many INTs (6) as TD passes - and the Bengals have averaged just 19 ppg in those outings. The running game is uninspiring and Baltimore owns the second best run defense in the NFL, while ranking third in the league in total yards allowed, fourth against the pass and they allow less than 17 ppg (more on that in a bit). Just stopping the run would have put a lot of pressure on Dalton. But Baltimore's equally strong pass defense really hamstrings the questionable Cinci pass offense in this one and with A.J. Green less than 100% healthy, the Ravens can tee-off. Baltimore built a 31-14 lead over Cincinnati in this season's first meeting, a 31-24 Ravens' win. I expect a decent-sized lead in this one and for Baltimore to keep or extend the lead rather than letting Cincinnati creep back in the game. I mentioned that Baltimore allows less than 17 ppg. The Bengals are on a 0-6 ATS slide against teams that allow no more than 17 ppg. Meanwhile, the Ravens are on a 4-0-1 ATS run against teams with a winning record and they're 11-3 ATS on the road following one or more consecutive ATS losses. I'm backing Baltimore on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm taking the points with the Bears on Sunday night. Green Bay's perfect season is over and they may not take a lot of chances with the injury bug. The Packers' offensive line is messy thanks to numerous injuries already, WR Greg Jennings is out for 3-4 weeks with a knee injury, and the last thing this team wants to do is get another key player knocked out for any length of time. But I like the Bears' approach to this contest despite the fact they have fallen off dramatically since the Jay Cutler injury. "We don't have quitters on our football team, and we have football left, a lot of football left to go hopefully," coach Lovie Smith told the Bears' official website. "Green Bay is our rival. They've dominated the rivalry here lately and we have to take a stand." I suspect the Bears will give the Packers all they can handle keeping this one much closer than the line suggests. Chicago has been strong in this spot, going 5-1 ATS as a road dog of more than 10 points. They're 9-1, 90% ATS in revenge for a home loss. And the Bears are in a 34-10 league-wide ATS spot. You go against home favorites of more than 10 points against a division opponent, off a road upset loss as a favorite. I'm grabbing the points with the Bears on Sunday night. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm backing the Seahawks on Saturday. One of the worst memories I have this season is the week-one matchup between these two teams, a 33-17 San Francisco win. It's a bad memory because I had Under 38 in the contest. There were 29 total points between the two with less than 6 minutes to go in the game. In fact, there were 24 points scored in just over 3 minutes of action from that point on - pushing a seemingly easy Under to a losing ticket. But the thing we take from the game is that we saw a 2-point contest with under 5 minutes to go turn into a misleading 16-point SFO winning margin due to a Ted Ginn kickoff return for a TD and a punt return for a TD just :59 seconds apart. Seattle is a different team now than they were in week one. They're playing outstanding defense over the last several weeks, holding their last 6 opponents to roughly 14 ppg. They're playing smart football on offense thanks mainly to the offensive line's run-blocking and the outstanding running of Marshawn Lynch. And they're catching the 49ers at the right time off the big MNF win (we had SFO) over Pittsburgh. Over the last 3 weeks, Seattle is playing as well as anyone. They have pounded Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Chicago by a combined score of 99-41. I suspect they'll continue their outstanding play in this rematch...after all, they match up with the Niners quite well. Look for Seattle to slow SFO on early downs, forcing Alex Smith to make big throws on 3rd down, something SFO has not had to do much this season. And SFO still has their problems in the red zone. Seattle fits an NFL wide, 23-6 ATS spot where you play on a home team in revenge if they're off a win of 14 or more points as an underdog. They're 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games and 5-0 ATS at home. Meanwhile, SFO is on a 3-10-1 ATS slide as a road favorite (1-6 ATS road fave of 3 or less) and 0-6 ATS in December road games. I'm backing Seattle on Saturday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm taking the points with Buffalo on Saturday. Tough spot for the Broncos after all the big games played by this team, including last week's high energy double-digit loss to New England. Not one of Denver's last 4 wins have come by more than 4 points and now they're laying road chalk for only the second time this season. Denver was a 1-point favorite at Miami, the first of Tim Tebow's late-game heroics. Buffalo's 5-2 SU start is ancient history, heading into this one having dropped 7 in a row. But 3 of those games were fairly tight and could have gone either way. Buffalo received good news late this week when Stevie Johnson was upgraded to probable. But the bottom line is that if Denver can't get to the QB, the defense can be had. We saw it last week against New England and I believe Ryan Fitzpatrick will get his time to go through his progressions in this one. Non NFL favorites are 77-38 ATS during the second half of the season after losing 7 straight games. Meanwhile, Denver has covered just 15 of their last 51 as a favorite. More of the same in this one. Buffalo plus the points on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm taking the points with Miami on Saturday afternoon. One of the hottest teams in football takes the gridiron in this match-up. That hot team (all due respect to the Pats) is the Miami Dolphins who're on 5-1 SU & 7-1 ATS runs. Matt Moore has certainly found his groove with an 11-1 TD-INT ratio in Miami's last 7 games and the running game has truly hit its stride which has helped to open things up for the passing game. That's not good news for a New England defense that was already horrible (dead last) against the pass - and is now struggling badly against the run. The Patriots have gave up 251 yards on 31 carries to the Broncos right after allowing 170 yards on 34 carries to the Redskins. Reggie Bush ought to be champing at the bit. Telling it like it is, the Pats benefited greatly from Denver turnovers. The Broncos were in the game, but 3 big turnovers led to 3 Patriot scores and Denver couldn't catch up. But after wrapping up the division, I expect New England to be in for a tight game, start to finish in this one, making all those points worth taking. Miami is not only playing excellent football, but they're on a 21-8-1 ATS run in road action. They're also 13-4 ATS on the road after the first month of the season over the last 3 years. And as mentioned earlier, they're on a 7-1 ATS run, overall. I'm grabbing the points with Miami on Saturday. Thanks! GL! Scott.